There were 1,025
transgressions by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) along the Line of Actual
Control (LAC) between 2016 and 2018. There were 273 transgressions in 2016, 426
in 2017 and 326 in 2018. The first four months of 2020 witnessed 170 Chinese
transgressions across the LAC, including 130 in Ladakh. There were only 110
such transgressions in Ladakh during the same period in 2019. Nearly one-third
of PLA-BDR transgressions in the western sector of the LAC happen in the
Panggong Tso Lake. According to official data, Panggong Tso, the 135km-long
lake, one-third of which is controlled by India, recorded 25% of the total
number of PLA-BDR transgressions in the last five years across the LAC. Trig
Heights recorded 22% while Burtse/Depsang Bulge accounted for 19% of all
transgressions. Incidentally, the site at Galwan River saw only six PLA-BDR
transgressions during the same period. While there was no transgression in
2019, four were recorded in 2017, and one each in 2018 and 2016. At Panggong
Tso, transgressions by the PLA-BDR almost doubled from a five-year low of 72 in
2018 to 142 in 2019. These transgressions occurred both in the waters of the
lake, and along its northern banks. There were 112 transgressions in 2017, the
year the two countries were locked in a tense 73-day faceoff at Doklam on the
Sikkim-Bhutan border. It was 164 and 77 in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
Although India and China share
a boundary that stretches 3,488km from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, official
data shows that 80% of the transgressions by China across the LAC since 2015 have taken place in four locations—three
of them in eastern Ladakh in the western sector. Along with Panggong Tso,
Trig Heights and Burtse have witnessed two-thirds of the total transgressions
across the LAC. New areas of PLA-BDR forays into India-controlled territory came
up in 2019—the Doletango area opposite Dumchele suddenly saw 54 PLA-BDR
transgressions in 2019, after having recorded only three transgressions in the
past four years. In the eastern sector, the highest number of transgressions by
the PLA-BDR—14.5% of the total–was recorded in Dichu Area/Madan Ridge area.
Transgressions recorded in other areas in the eastern sector were very low,
including Naku La in Sikkim, which saw two PLA-BDR transgressions each in 2018
and 2019.
In early May 2020 Indian Army
(along with Indo-Tibetan Border Police) and PLA-BDR troops exchanged blows on
two occasions, once near Panggong Tso
Lake in eastern Ladakh and in the Naku La sector in Sikkim. In both incidents,
personnel from both sides suffered injuries. There was also movement of PLA-BDR
troops to eastern Ladakh after India began constructing a road in the Galwan
River area. There was no transgression by PLA-BDR patrols in this area in the
past two years. The site of the ongoing road construction is near the
confluence of Shyok and Galwan rivers, some 200km north of Panggong Tso Lake.
The PLA-BDR is objecting to the construction of a new road that branches off the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg
Oldie (DSDBO) road along the river-bank towards the LAC. The DSDBO road
connecting Daulat Beg Oldie, at the base of the Karakoram Pass, with Shyok and
Darbuk, was completed a year ago and provides India greatly improved
connectivity. The 255km-long road, which had to be realigned after the initial
alignment was found unsuitable, runs along the Shyok and Tangtse rivers.
At Panggong Tso, the PLA-BDR
has deployed additional rapid interception craft (RIC) on the lake and stopped
the movement of IA and ITBP soldiers beyond Finger 2 on the northern bank of
the lake. The mountains there jut forward in major spurs, which the IA calls
Fingers. India claims that the LAC is co-terminus with Finger 8, while China
claims that the LAC passes through Finger 2. The area between the two differing
perceptions is the territory which both opposing patrols try to dominate
through regular patrolling. The IA and ITBP physically control the area up to
Finger 4. The number of PLA-BDR RICs has gone up three times—it had earlier
been using only three boats. The IA also has a similar number of RICs to
dominate the 45km-long western portion of the lake, which is under Indian
control.
Since the IA and ITBP
physically control the area up to Finger 4, this was regarded as a “provocative
move” by the PLA-BDR following the “disengagement” after a physical altercation
between troops of both sides near Finger 5 on the night of May 5-6, 2020. The PLA-BDR
has been objecting to construction of a vehicle track by India in the same
area. While PLA-BDR soldiers patrol the area in light vehicles on a motorable
road built in 1999, when India was busy with OP Vijay in northern J & K, IA
and ITBP soldiers patrol on foot till their perception of the LAC. The
China-built road in that area is rather narrow and has very few turning points.
So, when Indian patrols challenge the PLA-BDR patrols and ask them to go back
from our area, the latter physically cannot turn their vehicles and it leads to
more acrimony.
In addition to the above, there
is a situation on the LAC in the Hot Springs sector, which is an ITBP sector.
An IA Company had moved closer to PP-14 and PP-15 in 2015 after a minor
incident, but this has always been a settled area between India and China.
Thus, it is worth considering if China’s posture there is linked to the incidents
at Panggong Tso, just as the Depsang standoff of April 2013 in northeastern
Ladakh was linked to a consequent standoff at Chumar in southern Ladakh in September
2014. However, some IA officers maintain that the incidents in Panggong Tso are
“typical LAC activity witnessed during summer months” when “some new units have
been inducted” and “operational familiarisation and occupation of
winter-vacated posts” take place. Consequently, incidents are “localised” in nature due to “different
perception of the LAC by the two sides”.
The only location (in the central
sector of the LAC) to record significant PLA-BDR transgressions is Barahoti in
Uttarkhand, which recorded 21 transgressions in 2019 and 30 in 2018. Such
transgressions will increase on both land and in the air in the years to come,
not just in Uttarkhand, but also in Himachal Pradesh, in order to minutely
monitor the IA’s and Indian Air Force’s (IAF) growing presence in these two
Indian states as they gear up for undertaking offensive joint high-altitude
plateau warfare operations. The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has since 2011 been using
one of its four SAR-equipped Tu-154M platforms to monitor developments in the
demilitarised area in Barahoti pastures in Chamoli district of Uttarkhand,
while the PLAGF, regularly uses Z-9EC helicopters equipped with a gimballed
optronic sensors for transgressing into India-controlled airspace in the same
area. Such actions will now also take place in Tashigang inside Himachal
Pradesh.
Ongoing Standoff At Galwan Valley Showing PLA-BDR Dispositions
Ongoing Standoff At Galwan Valley Showing IA-ITBP
Dispositions
Areas Where PLA-BDR Patrols Transgress Into Ladakh
Trig Heights
near Chip Chap River: 35 22 22.14 N, 78 2 15.74 E & Burtse in
Depsang Bulge: 35 18 9.89 N, 78° 0 44.17 E
Galwan Valley: 34 46 10.37 N, 78 12 44.45 E
Gogra Hot
Springs: 34 18 29.96 N, 78 58 53.01 E
Panggong Tso
Lake: 33 43 14.99 N, 78 45 49.33 E
Spanggur Gap: 33
33 51.12 N, 78 46 53.13 E
Demchok: 32 41
51.43 N, 79 27 28.74 E
Chumur: 32 37 55.60
N, 78 36 4.56 E
Roundabout Near Kongka la/Hot Springs/Gogra Post: 34 20 11.97 N, 79 1
59.79 E
Opposing Road Connectivity Networks Along LAC
To ANISH: Regarding BPJ, just as there is no magic bullet, there are no magic BPJs that stop all bullets. It is actually all about the distance to the target & the travelling velocity of the bullet & its related diameter. As for MBTs, in case of countries endeavouring for the very first time to develop a product or platform, the R & D challenges are far greater since a vast amount of data-points need to be obtained & that too on a trial-n-error basis. In case of Arjun MBT, two feasibility reports were prepared, both from abroad. One from the UK & the other from Germany. The CVRDE then, faced with the dilemma of choosing the best from both, decided on a hybrid design, i.e. the hull & turret design from Germany’s recommendations, & the armament/fire-control system suggestion from the UK. This consequently led to a lot of matching & mis-matches, which was quite time-consuming. Then there was the need to learn how exactly to calculate the life-cycle of a MBT & both CVRDE & the IA’s MGO Branch delayed the design maturation & service-induction phase. Hence all the delays.
ReplyDeleteTo SATYAKI: The slides above clearly illustrate the geographical distancing between the opposing build-ups & hence it is very much unlike what had transpired at Nathu La back in 1967.
To VED: It will result in a 15% reduction in actual defence spending in this fiscal year.
To AMIT BISWAS: The slides above clearly prove that the ‘desi bandalbaaz’ has been making baseless claims.
To ARUN: LoLz! All that the PLA-BDR has done is to pitch tents. The slides above illustrate it all. Furthermore, when the PLA’s airborne elements have to be transported by land that alone says enough about the PLA’s limitations. Just read this to find out more:
http://kj.81.cn/content/2020-05/21/content_9818197.htm
To KAPIL: 1) Of course. 2) Depends on their regional & international aspirations. 3) Some will be postponed, but not be terminated. 4) No. 5) Possible, but no physical invasion of Taiwan will take place, rest assured. 6) It is all about the preservation of the one-party rule in Mainland China, i.e. a one-country two-systems approach can never be implemented in any practical manner. 7) Anyone who becomes the next US President will never find it politically feasible to forgive & forget all that China has done between December 31 last year till to date. 8) The days of Pakistan as a declared nuclear WMD state are numbered, as the months ahead will prove it. 9) No.
To ASD: It was just a a morale-boosting & stock-taking visit, since the GOC-in-G Northern Command is highly experienced on all aspects of military affairs related to both J & K UT & Ladakh UT.
To KAUSTAV: Back in 2007, when the US began to take the first steps towards a rebalancing of its military might & pivoting to the Far East, many in India’s ruling civilian & military circles were surprised at that time since they did not quite understand the long-term strateghic goals of the PRC. Simply put, China knew then that there were ideological & practical contradictions in its much-touted ‘One Country Two Systems’ formula under the so-called ‘One China’ policy, which is explained here:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_L_QrDhgqM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZHIjhwzIXA
In short, the ‘One Country Two Systems’ was China’s attempted cooperative federalism, which was stupidly prescribed for only Hongkong & Macau SARs, but excluded both TAR & Xinjiang. It was therefore only a matter of time before both Tibet & Xinjiang too would start claiming to be treated as step-children. Hence, it was decided by Beijing back in 2007 itself that the ‘One Country two Systems’ policy would start being rolled back gradually after the 2008 Beijing Olympics. It was this that got the US & its allies thinking about the tremendous upheavel & bloodbaths this would cause both within China & its periphery & hence the US Pivot to the East was undertaken starting 2009. And as has been proven quite clearly now, China’s Communist Party (CCP) is on course to renege on all its legally-binding commitments regarding the promises it had made on preserving the political & administrative status quo WRT Hongkong & Macau SARs.
But what China had not catered for was the global loss of trust & faith in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic & hence China’s attempts at imposing draconian legislation in HK SAR has now given the US & the rest of the world the perfect excuse to dump the ‘One China’ policy as well as a means of retaliation. And it is this that will prove to be the ‘regime destroyer’ & the end of the CCP’s existence within China. That’s the reason why issues like the persecution of Uighurs & Tibetans are finding new life, along with the status of the Panchem Lama. And to top it all, the ‘One China’ policy will have far fewer takers in the months & years to come. And these are the faultlines that any self-especting country will try its best to exploit. For instance, just as France after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre approved the export of Mirage-2000-5 MRCAs to Taiwan, this time too France is now all set to export 8 Scorpene CM-2000 SSKs to Taiwan’s RoC Navy.
SIDM's Defence & Aerospace MSME Conclave https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezZKHTKdQfk
ReplyDeleteMyth of Chinese Capitalism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHxU1ImzLXg
India & Indo-Pacific https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xr75GztKpic
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDeleteRecently two BJP MPs attended the virtual swearing in ceremony of Taiwan President. Then why not our leadership bluntly tell China that at one hand you poke with our sovereignity and at the other hand, you request us to show support to your expansionist attitude. It won't work like this. Please comment.
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteI personally feel that Indian's sea harrier could have been handy this time. Ladakh s plain land could have been handy for STOL planes. We need only to build some small airfields. It's true that the Oxygen is less but jumbo size air inlet and short take off and landing may compensate that. Italy is still operating Harriers.
For hangers we need to make provision inside the hills by tunneling.
Best regards
"The days of Pakistan as a declared nuclear WMD state are numbered, as the months ahead will prove it."
ReplyDeleteVery interesting comment sir.How do you think that will happen?Will it be via military means by the US(like you said in 2016)or will the terms and conditions of any future loan taken by Pakistan require Pakistan to give up its WMDs?Also,will North Korea meet the same fate?
Ahh !!! Why no punitive actions on those desi yellow bandalbaaz(s) for this kind of misinformation.
ReplyDeletePrasunda, in this tweet the reporters are saying that on May 5th and 6th Indian and Chinese troops clashed at Ladakh. It was much more than stones, punches and fisticuffs. And hospitalisation was also more extensive and in large numbers.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/manaman_chhina/status/1264443687330648065?s=20
Is this true? Thank You.
Hi.
ReplyDeleteWhy India is not retaliating?
Ban Huwaei/ZTE 5G, Network related products, Computer Mother Boards and Electric Power Management systems from china?
John
Hi Prasunji,
ReplyDeleteHow do compare the DRDO Helmet Mounted Sight compared to Internationally available systems
Thanks & Regards
Hardik Thanki
Prasun Da,
ReplyDeleteLast year, post Balakot India purchased a number of R 27, R 73E and R 77 missiles from Russia. Total value of the deal was pegged at USD 700 million.
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/3726399.html
However, there were reports that the R 77 that the IAF has is a mediocre missile. So why did IAF purchase the R 77 again?
Thanks
This was extremely informative. If I might ask a question - in the areas concerned, is India adequately prepared with air and land forces in the event (admittedly exceedingly unlikely) that this starts to escalate? Given infrastructure constraints, wouldn't India require more time to reinforce its positions? And is there adequate artillery support available (again, completely unlikely but the PRC seems in an escalatory mood)? Thanks
ReplyDeleteTo ASD: That could well have been the message conveyed by India through this action, don’t you think? On the other hand, what message is China trying to send through this photo:
ReplyDeletehttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYrR3nrU0AAB85h?format=jpg&name=large
Is it signalling that China intends to attack Paris?
To PARTHASARATHI: Kindly rest assured that no ‘jumbo-sized’ air-intakes will compensate for the lack of oxygen at rarified heights over the Himalayan & karakoram Ranges. In addition, the effective payload capacity will also greatly diminish. Instead, what will work best are helicopters like Sikorsky’s X-97 Raider, AVX Aircraft CCH, Bell 360 Invictus & Boeing’s FARA that are being developed to operate effectively up to 20,000 feet ASL.
To ARUN: It will be a combination of all such factors WRT both DPRK & Pakistan, as both are parasites clinging on to the common ‘big brother’.
To DASHU: Well, I am of the view that the best way to ensure enduring coercive compellance is to obtain a motorbike’s exhaust-pipe & shuv it up his arse. But I* will defer to any better suggestion emanating from you. And just for the sake of illustrating how wide off-the-mark he is, I have uploaded above the slides showing the various areas of transgression, which clearly show that Galwan Valley is nowhere near Gogra.
To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: It can well be true, as that would explain why the IA’s COAS made a low-key visit to HQ XIV Corps at Leh on May 22 (presumably also to meet the wounded soldiers at an Army hospital there to shore up their morale.
To JOHN: What is there to retaliate now, since Huawei will no longer be able to offer 5 G services anywhere in this world, after both the US & Taiwan decided to stop exporting the kind of high-end microchips that Huawei needs for its 5 G-related hardware? That’s why even the UK is now backing off, as announced by the UK’s PM in Parliament 48 hours ago.
To HARDIK THANKI: Which HMD are you referring to?
To VIKRAM GUHA: The R-77s imported by India since the year 2000 were of the RVV-AE type (izdeliye 190). The ones ordered in 2019 are the R-77’s RVV-SD (izdeliye 170-1) variants. Similarly, the R-73E SRAAMs ordered in 2019 are the improved RVV-MD variants.
To SBM: VMT. I was compelled to upload the extra explanations/slides because even supposedly ‘informed’ commentators are unable to differentiate between SECTORS (that denote military areas of administration & operations) & actual locations of transgressions, like this one:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1264378666349465602
Now, coming to establishing the motive behind such concurrent transgressions, we can safely state that the well-publicised standoffs of the past—Depsang in April 2013, Chumar in September 2014, Burtse in September 2015, Doklam in July-August 2017, Panggong Tso on August 15, 2017, Panggong Tso in September 2019, Panggong Tso on May 5-6, 2020 & Naku La on May 9, 2020—are only SYMBOLIC in nature & have no military relevance & hence involve only highly visible entrenchments of limited duration during summertime (since such areas are uninhabitable in winter-time), following which both parties back off at the same time after reaching mutually acceptable understandings. Hence, this time too, the standoiff is at only one location—Galwan River-Valley—while at other places, they have involved only temporary patrolling forays & swift withdrawal. The reason why Beijing conducts only one high-profile standoff at a time is to drive home 3 major points:
1) A reminder to India that China gives no importance to the LAC in Ladakh, especially after the 2000km-long boundary (constituting the LAC) was mentioned by CHINA DAILY in August 2009 in a report on the 13th round of boundary talks between the two countries. Consequently, in China’s calculus, the LAC ends at Himachal Pradesh.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi-news/chinese-media-has-different-border-claim/story-MBBTV2v6EqLXG6vdv8AdlK.html
2) Since these are symbolic standoffs, Beijing has always been extremnely careful to avoid climbing ther escalatory ladder & therefore the PLA-BDR’s transgressions have always without fail been into a 20km in-depth patch of real-estate where the LAC’s opposing perceptions overlap, i.e. where none of the 2 countries have any administrative control since they are invariably uninhabitated. The slides showing the Galwan River-valley standoff are clearly indicative of this pattern.
3) Beijing is especially perturbed & scared of what it perceives as India’s non-adherance to Articles VI & VIII of the BDCA:
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/border-defence-cooperation-agreement-between-india-and-china-full-text-538646
Cont'd below...
It may be recalled that the Agreement on Border Defence Cooperation (BDCA) was signed between the governments of India and China on October 23, 2013 in Beijing. Article VI of the BDCA, when read with Article VIII, reveals the common wish of India and China that no face-to-face situation should escalate into an incident involving military force. While Article VI discards ‘tailing of patrols’, Article VIII, in tune with some earlier agreements, complements it by mandating the exercise of ‘self-restraint’ in a face-to-face situation in any area where there is difference of opinion about the LAC. Article VIII goes on to instruct the militaries to ‘refrain from provocative actions’, shun use or threat of use of force, and deal with the other party ‘courteously’. But here it must be stated that India played its cards badly by making a big song-n-dance about the raising of the XVII Mountain Strike Corps between 2009 & 2013. Consequently, Beijing is of the view that India is reneging on her BDCA commitments on not resorting to use of miitary force. Consequently, Beijing has since 2015 raised an extra demand: that India freeze all her road/rail connectivity projects in areas along the LAC & maintain status quo. Obviously this is unacceptable to India since acceptance would mean that China gets to maintain 100% transportation connectivity, India gets stuck with only 40% connectivity (since 60% of the work is still in progress & is due for completion by 2024).
ReplyDeleteLastly, as I had explained in the previous thread, the PLAGF & PLAAF still does not possess any overwhelming superiority reqd for offensive war-waging capacities/capabilities anywhere along the LAC today. This then goes to play various kinds of doomsday scenarios in the minds of PLAGF & PLAAF war-planners because in all their history-books, they are taught since their school-going days that the legendary 19th century Dogra General Zorawar Singh had trained his soldiers and horses on the frozen Panggong Lake before invading Tibet’s Kailash-Mansarovar area. So, if one understands such a prevailing psyche, one can then easily make perfect sense out such periodic standoffs.
My compliments for your remarkable insights and knowledge imparted. I do have some of my own observations though. This latest event of encroachment is due to significant ramping up of road constructions along LAC and the other reason is major emphasis laid upon freeing of POK and resulting reunification of India as is evident from all statements of Indian governance in recent months. Both of these go against the Chinese interests, special impetus is given to BRI initiative in PAK, resulting in deeply chagrined China.
ReplyDeletePrasun Da, regarding injury to the Indian soldiers, during scuffle,is it the only Indian side only whose Injury gets reported ( as link provided by Sujoy Majumder, where there is report of couple of soldiers getting tossed into the water, and video footage of previous scuffle available of an injured ITBP soldier seems had to be removed by his colleagues) or the Chinese escape with the minor or no injury or they physically strong their Indian counterpart, which seems quite impossible, seeing their built from the pictures available in the net? Or the levels of injury being so high in their side, that any leaking of such news in their social media would demoralise the soldiers, so the same being strictly censured.
ReplyDeletePrasunda
ReplyDeleteAs is usual with your extremely lucid explanations & what the retired generals seem to be saying, it seems that PRC wants India to continue to have it's focus on the land border dispute while PRC gets a free run across the Indian Ocean. India has progressively lost military edge in Himalayas after 2008. PRC keeps getting more & better infrastructure in TAR & vertical lift capability. India has a chance as yet to win & settle the LAC. It would seem that India benefits if shooting war starts soon as PRC allegedly looks at this as messaging, not military action. OTOH, PRC might try military action within a decade as soon as they achieve overwhelming superiority & military interoperability with Pakistan. It would this seem that India has a window now to get the LAC settled as PRC might not like a military reverse now.
I know, while it seems contradictory to the above stated PRC objectives, will they be willing to settle the LAC (incl Ladakh) or does India have hope yet for Kailas Mansarovar recovery or autonomy to Tibet. Could you, sir, give a comprehensive future viewing?!
Thanks in anticipation 😊
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDelete1.If India gets 36 Rafale fighters, how many pilots will be trained and how many days will they take to master the fighting skil with the beautiful birds?
2. Don't you think that UP CM Yogi's decision to take govt permission before getting migrants from UP is suicidal as migrants themselves will suffer?
To BROWN DESI: VMT. If China wants to secure its CPEC-related interests in Gilgit-Baltistan by strengthening Pakistan, then it will have no need to needle India along the LAC because all that China has to do (and is doing) on India's western front is to keep re-arming Pakistan with hardware like VT-4 MBTs, PCL-181 MGS, JF-17 etc etc.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, if you wish to spend the rest of Eid Day watching some of the PLA-related propaganda videos on the PLAGF conscripts' acclimatisation processes, PLA-BDR's presence along the LAC, & the PLA's Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF) inside TAR:
JLSF in TAR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmTv5ShV1Cc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsWTYrHZIKs
PLAGF Acclimatisation in TAR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFfHkuKbn-g
PLA-BDR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjzfpIOT_TM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxgWv2zrvzM
National Highway G-219 in TAR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37LYvadoRXk
To SUMANTA NAG: The reason why information is flowing in from only one side is because the other side does not have freedom of speech or a free media.
Prasun,
ReplyDelete--Your reply to desi brown & the recent news of China planning to complete building the Bhasa dam in G-B region .. anything that can be done to stay relevant in POK before its too late?
--Interesting article ...https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/view-chinas-crypto-is-all-about-tracing-and-power/articleshow/75968868.cms .. China will push their digital currency down the throat of countries indebted to them in their attempt to make yuan a rival to dollar...
-- taliban ovetures to India.. should we take the bait and engage with them...
Hi Prasunji,
ReplyDelete1. As HAL is claiming below, have they completed the delivery of all 272 aircrafts contracted to them by IAF ?
https://www.hal-india.co.in/HAL%20records%20tur/ND__301
The article is also stating that more orders are expected from IAF. As you have stated in your blog, the total numbers will certainly cross 300 for Su-30.
2. What is the estimated timeline for the first Su-30 with Super Sukhoi upgrade program to roll out ?
3. What is estimated timeline for first LCA MK-1A to roll out and start testing ?
4. How many years would it take for LCA MK-1A to complete testing, certification & undergo series production ?
Thank you,
MG6357
Thanks Prasun Da,
ReplyDelete1.Meanwhile height Of moronic comments of Nepali minister, dragging Gorkha community serving Indian Army, in past Nepal tried to win away Gorkha communities to serve the foreign armies, but this time it has gone beyond limits : https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/indian-army-chief-has-hurt-gurkha-sentiments-nepal-defence-minister/article31669155.ece
2. Also kindly share your views on Chinese testifying of AVIC AR500C and it's possible role in PLA 's Joint High Altitude Plateau Operations, and options available to Indian Army
https://idrw.org/chinas-first-plateau-focused-unmanned-helicopter-makes-maiden-flight-missions-along-border-with-india-expected/
3. Al Queda seems now ditching Pakistan as well : https://idrw.org/after-taliban-now-al-qaeda-ditches-pakistan-on-kashmir/
Kindly share your views, thanks in advance.
Thanks Prasun Da.
ReplyDeleteBut is the Su 30MKI capable of firing the RVV-AE and RVV-SD ?
I understand the Su 30MKI unlike the Su 35 is not plug and play.
Dear Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteI am not sure whether this is correct choice of words but I have only word in my mind when it comes to what is going on "Interesting". Just who is advising Chinese President or he is acting on his own will. At a time when COVID-19 crisis has already battered the image of the country, Chinese are going ahead with wolf warrior form of diplomacy.
Now Chinese decides to go ahead with Border dispute with India and other neighboring countries and stir up the Taiwan issue.
As if it is still not enough, here comes the Hong Kong security law and the massive PR disaster is complete. But given the Chinese appetite, as if these all were still less, Chinese companies send the sub standard testing kits, masks and PPEs and then launch a global campaign to take over companies around the world.
US decides to respond and Huawei is target specifically. I mean, instead of solving the issues, Chinese are raking up issues one after another. This is just too much on plate for Chinese diplomacy. Can't they see the impending disaster coming their way.
Regards,
In what way the delivery of Rafale is being negatively affected due to the global break up of epidemic Coronavirus?
ReplyDeleteTo UNKNOWN: How can the LCH be operationalised when it hasn’t even been fully weaponised? Where is its self-protection avionics suite mounted on the airframe? Presently, only work related to the Rudra WSI’s weaponisation is in progress. Only after this work has been completed will weaponisation of the LCH begin. HAL is not that big an OEM to possess loads of test-pilots & engineers dealing with airworthiness certification-related taskings on a concurrent basis.
ReplyDeleteTo ASD: The prescribed ratio is 1:2, i.e. 2 pilots per aircraft. 2) These are all posturings. Hard ground realities are totally different, as you well realise, I’m sure.
To JUST-CURIOUS: 1) The Diamer Bhasha Dam will take at least 7 years to build. Plenty of time available to India to decide on the best course of action. 2) These explain the issue of China’s crypto-currency policy:
Digital Currency https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZv4yyuweP8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvJnTQjdC-E
3) There are SEVERAL factions of the Afghan Taliban & there’s no harm in negotiating with those factions that are on good terms with the Ashraf Ghani-led govt in Kabul.
To MG6357: 2) Such deep-upgrade work involves prototype development for at least 2 years. 3) It should roll out within the coming 60 days or even by early next month. 4) At least 2 years, depending on the availability of adequate nos of prototypes.
To SUMANTA NAG: The AR-500C has a service ceiling of 15,091.86 feet, while the Galwan valley is at an altitude of 14,650 feet. In other words, any functional UAS over that area must have a service ceiling of at least 16,500 feet & if not, it will be totally useless.
To SUMANTA CHATTERJEE: Of course. It is not at all a military confrontation, but rather a politicasl one that uses the military as one of the many available tools.
To VIKRAM GUHA: All AAMs of Russia origin are integrated to the Su-30MKI’s avionics suite’s weapons management computer at the avionics integration-cum-engineering test-ring located at Irkutsk. Consequently, integration of any Russia-origin weapon with a Russia-origin platform has never been a problem.
To RAJESH MISHRA: Just a 3-month delay. Nothing to worry about at all.
PA COAS Visits LoC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRGy8A2kAw8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UynooJQj8cA
To KAUSTAV & ANIONE: VMT, but China is not the kind of an irresponsible dictatorship like Pakistan & consequently, evolves strategies & postures in a calculated & well-thought-out manner. For instance, the Depsang Standoff of 2013 expedited India’s signature on the BDCA. The Burtse Standoff of 2015 made India re-examine & go slow on operationalisation of the XVII Mountain Strike Corps & also kept Australia out of the Malabar series of trilateral naval exercises. The Doklam Standoff of 2017 made India drop all references to Taiwan & instead adopt the term Chinese Taipei & also virtually eliminated His Holiness the Dalai Lama from Indian & global public view. Thus, it is evident that such China-initiated standoffs always produce the results that China wants/seeks. So what will it be this time? For this, we need to understand that such standoffs are always carried out by the PLA’s Border Defence Regiments, whose roles are constabulary & they are not armed or trained as frontline infantry combat units. Consequently, their presence in any disputed area does not lead to military escalation & instead is ONLY of symbolic value internationally, & loss of face for that country on whose claimed soil the standoff takes place. And yet, Beijing also offers face-saving avenues to its adversary by staging summits like the Wuhan Summit with NaMo. Finally, to be noted is that such standoffs by the PLA-BDR never take place in an instant. Instead, they are planned at least 120 days in advance to get the field logistics matters settled.
ReplyDeleteThis time around, the pressures against China (fuelling Beijing’s anxieties) started mounting since last year, when the much-publicised 2 + 2 Quad summits, followed by the IN’s exercises with regional navies in the South China Sea. By mid-March, India was seen to be singing the same tune with ther US & Australia about China not playing by international rules WRT its earlier commitments to Hongkong SAR’s autonomy & WTO guidelines on free trade. Then there was the upcoming crisis concerning the Panchem Lama that could again create widespread unrests within TAR. By last month, the Tibetan Govt-in-Exile in Dharamsala was actively canvassing (with US support) for marking the 25 years of the Panchem Lama’s disappearance. May 17 marked 25 years since China’s security forces took away a 6-year-old Tibetan child, Gendun Choeki Nyima (Panchem Lama), and his parents from a remote town in Tibet. They have not been heard from since. Today, no one apart from the Chinese authorities has any idea where they are, what they do, or whether they will ever be seen in public or live freely again. The most important purpose of the Panchen Lama from Beijing's perspective is the role he traditionally plays in identifying the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, revered as a living God by Tibetan Buddhists. With the current holder of that title, Tenzin Gyatso, now 84, there's a strong chance that a successor will be needed sooner rather than later.
Further recommended reading:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/20/asia/china-tibet-panchen-lama-dalai-lama-intl-hnk/index.html
Hence, there were enough indicators by May 1 of a possible asymmetric retaliation emanating from Beijing fairly soon. But it had to be highly symbolic & well-calibrated. Consequently, the pin-pricks were initiated only along those areas where the Tibetans have a religious & ethnic affinity with HH the Dalai Lama & Panchem Lama (i.e. Ladakh). The issue of the Kalapani salient in estern Nepal was also activated since it had served as the traditional conduit route for those Tibetans fleeing from TAR as refugees (via Nepal’s town of Mustang, which the CIA had used back in the 1950s as a staging post for the armed Tibtan uprising). Arunachal Pradesh was deliberately kept out of the picture & as a result one has not yet seen any transgressions by the PLA-BDR there.
Cont'd below...
So what does China really want? Beijing wants India to desist from upgrading the status of the QUAD in any manner, to reduce its naval forays in the South China Sea, & most importantly desist from siding with the US-led coalition of the willing both globally & especially in the Indo-Pacific Region on matters related to the ongoing crisis in Hongkong SAR. The last demand is critical for both Beijing & President Xi Jinping, since any encouragement given to Hongkong SAR’s protesters will only embolden protesters in TAR & Xinjiang to upscale their civilian unrest movements as well. And for Xi Jinping, the stability of TAR has personal significance because his late father, Xi Zhongxun, a liberal-minded former Vice Premier, had a close bond with the Dalai Lama who once gave the elder Xi an expensive watch in the 1950s, a gift that Xi Zhongxun was still wearing decades later. The Dalai Lama himself recalls the elder Xi as being “very friendly, comparatively more open-minded, very nice”. Xi senior was a dove in the party, championing the rights of Tibetans, Uighurs and other ethnic minorities. He also opposed the PLA crackdown on the 1989 Tiananmen Square student protests and was alone in criticising the sacking of liberal party chief Hu Yaobang by the Old Guard in 1987. Xi senior died in 2002.
ReplyDeleteTherefore, preservation of stability in TAR & being seen to preserve prosperity in TAR are issues extremely close to Xi Jinping’s heart & he does not want to see his plans getting disrupted by either the Dalai Lama or the issue of Panchem Lama. Hence, he is attempting to rein in India & once the standoff is resolved on China’s terms, will probably give another face-saving informal summit to NaMo somewhere in China but outside Beijing. So, for India now, the choices are clear: does she stand firm with the coalition of the willing in the Indo-Pacific, or does she acquiesce to China’s demands or party acquiesce by yet again becoming a fence-sitter. Perhaps, India now ought to learn a few lessons from Vietnam, which is determined to stand up to China while at the same time preserving its thriving bilateral relations with both the US & Russia.
I guess india this time india won't agree to China's one way policy and stand up to china unlike never before
DeleteWhy Is The LAC PERCEIVED To Be More Dangerous Than LoC:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsEvsOR6VdI&t=11s
Excellent explanation & expose on why India's civilian 'netas' & bureaucrats never understand the difference between military power & military force & consequently they never know when & how & where to apply them. Consequently, even the best-equipped military force in the world will be forced to under-perform & will be in a position of weakness vis-a-vis any adversary (just like the much-superior IAF was prevented in 1962 from entering into hostilities against a PLAAF that was non-existent in Tibet).
Prasun, I hope India does not capitulate.
ReplyDeleteHa ha ha you put a driller on the 65-inch chest by exposing the reality of face-saving informal summits. Every time these standoffs are resolved on China’s terms only- I doubt this is a secret at all if one sees open challenges to India regarding PoK etc.
ReplyDeleteHowever, this expose will give a ray of hope to some groups who are desperate to become relevant in Indian politics.
Prasunda,
ReplyDelete1) Praveen Sawhney seems to be against the revoking of article 370, pointing it as the reason for PLA intrusions. Is that not a point on which he is mistaken?
2) What is this ``algorithmic war" he is talking about?
Satyaki
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteNow Ajai Shukla claims 10000 PLA troops are entrenched in our territory. Should there not be penalties for such fake news?
Kritavarma
Manning each and every point on LAC by ITBP or army is nearly impossible. It is physically and economically draining as well. India can't just keep on increasing number of men guarding LAC.
ReplyDeletePLA can sneak in prove their point and walk back with an agreement which suits their plan.
This needs to change.
How can India turn tide's in it's favour ?
Prasun, what are your views Re the hypotheses proposed here.
ReplyDeletehttp://delhidefencereview.com/2020/05/25/are-we-witnessing-the-prelude-to-a-chinese-invasion-of-india/
Cheers
To DASHU: What I have explained sequentially above ain’t rocket science & a cursory timeline of these incidents will clearly confirm my assessment. Nor was this begun in 2017. In fact, India’s policy mistakes regarding the LAC began in 1993 itself when, without obtaining military opinions, the then PM P V Narasimha Rao relied on advice only from the MEA’s J N Dixit & Shivshankar Menon. Application of sound common-sense would have made it evident that whenever there are 2 different perceptions of the LAC, it is always imperative to agree on a unitary defined LAC whose median depth & linear limits can be the average of the 2 separate perceptions. And for this to be derived, the 2 overlapping perceptions of the LAC on opposing maps should have been shared with one another. This wasn’t done in 1993 & 1996 or even 2005. That left the door wide open for China to unilaterally alter the LAC’s status & definition whereby: 1) China in 2007 stated that although it had accepted that Sikkim was an integral part of India, the territorial boundaries between Sikkim & Tibet were never delineated on a map & demarcated on the ground between the Govts of India & PRC & hence the Sikkim-Tibet boundary was only ‘notional’. 2) In 2009, China declared that the LAC did not extend to J & K & stopped at the Himachal Pradesh-Tibet frontier. 3) China has refused to even discuss the status of the Trans-Karakoram Tract/Shaksgam Valley. 4) For the middle sector, both sides exchanged maps of their respective perceptions of the LAC in 2002, but the western sector maps were shared for only a few seconds but never exchanged at China’s insistence, while the eastern sector maps have not even been shared till this day. Consequently, in NONE of the 3 sectors can India claim to have an agreement with China on settling/defining the length & depth of the LAC.
ReplyDeleteAnd to make matters far worse, the ill-informed ‘desi patrakaars’ go into a tizzy whenever devoid of the above-mentioned factoids & come up with outrageously spectacular suggestions like this:
Rather than leave it to its military or diplomatic commanders, the two leaders need to have a candid conversation on the lines of the Wuhan or Mahabalipuram dialogue to carry out course corrections and take the bilateral relationship beyond third party suspicions.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/china-s-tactical-play-in-ladakh-isn-t-just-about-the-boundary-analysis/story-aJy8XQDURYzT6nN70GsxzK.html
The LAC was thought to be settled in this area which has not seen many incidents in the past, but China now appears to think otherwise.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/what-explains-the-india-china-border-flare-up/article31660378.ece
To SATYAKI: 1) He is only going by what the officially-approved commentator of China from Beijing had stated yesterday here:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ6U9OKXwlY&t=15s
If indeed that was the reason, then why did China wait from August till October 2019 (before the areas of Ladakh start receiving snowfall)? It just doesn’t add up. 2) When one weaponises the various instruments of electronic hacking, it becomes known as ALGORITHMIC WAR that also encompasses intercepts & decoding of satellite communications. That’s why every now & then the US sends into orbit the Boeing X-37 unmanned orbiter (obviously for collecting & bringing back certain sensors whose service-lives are short & therefore need to be evacuated lest they fall into hostile hands).
To KRITAVARMA: The term ‘own territory’ is just another perception until it is agreed upon officially by both the country hosting that territory & by the country that shares a border with that territory. Can the ‘desi bandalbaaz’ produce any map or document that conclusively shows & states that China has agreed to the Galwan Valley & Panggong Tso Lake areas belonging to India? If not, then either he is an IDIOT, or he does not understand how IBs are cartographically delineated on grid-maps & demarcated with boundary pillars on the ground. Consequently, idiotic perceptions/explanations dominate the popular narrative & everyone else (the audience) repeatedly gets taken for a ride by such intellectual bankruptcy.
Prasun Da. So the Chinese have a very simple lever on us.Anytime they want something done they send troops to the border . Is this sustainable for us ?
ReplyDeleteThe South China sea statement by India +2 BJP MPs attending the inauguration ceremony of Taiwan's president+ the continuation of road construction.The initial signs are good.I hope that India does not give any concessions to China.We should upgrade the QUAD and move even closer to the US.China's actions are such that I won't be surprised if a third world war is on the cards 20-30 years down the line(before 2049).In fact,I think that it is inevitable and that China will be the main axis power along with other axis countries like Pakistan and North Korea and a few others.We should become full fledged members of the allied powers like the US.The sooner the Indian policymakers realize that,the better.Two foundational pacts have been signed already and the third will be signed by the end of the year.I hope that the transition from fence sitter to allied member is completed soon.How do you see India-US relations progressing over the course of time?
ReplyDeleteHi sir
ReplyDelete1. By not settling the border dispute, what objectives does china want to achieve. What is the stategic objective to gain after getting control over ladakh.
2. As you mentioned, china deliberately making these border standoffs periodically and ends with their own term. As you said, after india having advantage in military posture ( strategic defence and tactical offensive) on lac, what will be the disadvantages that make us to negotiate at their terms. Is china gaining psychological upper hand in indian national security planners or is purely due to diplomatic subbotage of national security architecture leaving military leaders kept aside
3. Can you give us the possible end terms for this stand off. Do you foresees, this time also it will ends with their own terms.
4. What will be indias optimum response for this type of misadventures? Stands like 'be resolute on borders, reasonable in diplomacy' and mirror diployments does make any difference . Does it make more sense by opening up of another front.
5. As pravin sawhney said, is indias two front war theory is devoid of facts and made up on mere assumptions. Does active front at western borders prevent india from obtaining any startegic initiatives at lac.
According to you what approach should indian armed forces take now in galwan valley ?
ReplyDeleteIndia should turn tables on China.
ReplyDeleteIndia should not support One China Policy.
India should make use of Tibet Card.
India should recognise Tibet as a disputed territory which is forcefully occupied by China. Else what's the use of giving asylum to Tibetans and Dalai Lama.
PrasunDa,
ReplyDeleteWill you please read this article written by Ambd(Retd) P Stobdan. He clearly mentions that China is trying to eventually take over Siachen Glacier through a 3 pronged strategy.
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-ladakh-warning-india-china-border-dispute-6427131/
Given how grim the situation is why is government of India still asking the Army not to use force to expel the Chinese military (link below)?
https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/1265136992653725698?s=20
Thank You
Prasun sir, what is your opinion on the way Modi govt's handling of China? Going by your thread it is clear that they backed down during earlier occasions and accepted Chinese demands on HK, Taiwan and other issues. The Chinese on the other hand never gave a damn about our concerns regarding POK. The Wuhan and Mahabalipuram summits have proven terrible for this govt. After this latest provocative India should harden it's resolve and go full ballistic on Taiwan and Hong Kong. The way Doklam was handled, I think they have finally woken up.
ReplyDeletePrasunda,
ReplyDeleteThanks for answering my question. But a doubt still persist. Don't you think that man portable stinger will be a great weapon at Laddakh ? At the same time M777 with M982 will be a lethal combination. Helicopters will be easy pick for Stingers.
But do we have enough numbers ?
Best regards
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteOf course, China has never agreed to the Galwan Valley being part of India. But the Galwan valley used to be a region where our patrols used to go. Is it now true that the Chinese are digging in to de facto annex the Galwan valley ? Is the story of 5000-10000 troops in the region true ?
Satyaki
To KARNFLAKES: Of course it is. India too should stay put like the IA & ITBP are now. There is no loss of face involved because both sides have pitched tentages in an area that is contested/disputed & so technically none of the 2 countries can claim undisputed sovereignty over that area. In fact, from end-March till mid-May, water streams impede vehicles moving across Shyok, Galwan, and Chang-Chenmo rivers leaving only a month and a half for effective patrolling by either side. By late September it is time to pack-up & leave due to worsening weather conditions and no human beings can inhabit there from late September till late May the following year. In fact, the entire terrain favours the defender (India) since the IA from Burtse & Thangtse to the north all the way down to Chushul has positioned 3 T-72CIA & T-90S MBT Regiments there. Even back in 1962 the deployment of AMX-13 light tanks there saved the day for the IA & the PLAGF took heavy casualties there. In contrast, the PLAGF has never deployed any armoured or mechanised assets in such areas. The highest point the PLAGF armoured vehicles reached is much firther down to the south at Charding Nullah in Demchok. That’s why there’s no way the PLAGF will even dare to try to move westwards from Panggong Tso to Luking as part of attempts to cut through from east to west of Ladakh as suggested in this article:
ReplyDeletehttps://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-ladakh-warning-india-china-border-dispute-6427131/
Thus, the IA dominates the entire high-altitude battlefields throughout Ladakh. Hence, ther PLA has taken 2 steps to demonstrate its intent: 1) It has deliberately constructed highly visible roundabouts of its all-weather roads to clearly show where its writ ends (see 34 20 11.67 N, 79 1 58.52 E on GoogleEarth Pro). 2) It always deliberately pitches tents in areas that constitute the approximate mid-point of the LAC perceptions of both China & India, so that no one can technically or legally claim that China has adopted an aggressive posture aimed at forcibly encroaching into India’s territory. Here are the other coordinates that will enable one to better understand the dispositions mentioned by P Stobdan:
Lukung: 33 59 35.70 N, 78 25 3.38 E
Charding Nullah: 32 41 58.03 N, 79 27 46.14 E
To ARUN: The question that everyone should ask but is not asking is: what can India bring to the table for the US? Because if India wants high-tech weapons for her force modernisation, then such options are no longer available from Russia to a very large extent. On the other hand, all state-of-the-art weapons procured by India since the previous decade have come from the US, France, Israel, UK, Spain, etc etc. And since this trend will only continue & grow in the years ahead, it is imperative that a NATO-style military alliance be created for the Indo-Pacific Region, but with a non-military name like the QUAD + or something similar. Only this will keep China in check & contained.
To ANT: 1) To keep India on the defensive psychologically, as explained in Pravin Sawhney’s latest video presentation. 2) It is due to both. For decades since the 1950s successive Govts of India have been deceiving their citizens by hiding the truth of the hard ground realities. For instance, no one in the world maintains the sanctity of temporary ceasefire lines like the LoC or LAC. Yet, even this GoI has periodically stated that India has always respected the sanctity of the LAC. Why adopt such a unilateral defensive mindset? 3) As soon as winter sets in, that entire area will become inhospitable & both parties will have to vacate their existing positions. 4) Just dig in & stay put until the other side packs-off & leaves. The reason why the PLA-BDR has deployed in larger numbers this time is because Beijing is determined to stay put until end-September & from now till then several rounds of troop rotations will be required to replace those troops who become sick, since the PLA-BDR troops are not used to staying at such high altitudes for extended durations & therefore require periodic replacements. Hence the pitching of tentages in 2 separate, with the one farther to the east serving as an administrative base where reserve troops stay just in case they are reqd to replace those further westwards who have taken ill. 5) Niether China nor India wants war & so none of the two will go to war, period. The latest standoff must be treated as a war of nerves & there’s nothing else reqd to be done. As simple as that.
ReplyDeleteTo GAURAV: The answers immediately above answer your query as well.
To SATYA: As I have explained above, there is nothing provocative or alarming about the latest standoff. Instead, it is just a psychological war of nerves & India needs to stay put till late September in the same manner & size as the PLA-BDR. Neither chest-thumping nor wailiong/whining is reqd.
To PARTHASARATHI: One just has to do the math by first deriving the altitude at which such MANPADS will be employed, followed by deriving the service ceiling of such MANPADS. And as I have repeatedly stated above, neither China nor India wants war & hence there will be no war. No side preparing to go to war erects tentages in full view of one another & that too only 500 metres apart from one another & in th PLA’s case, the BDR soldiers deployed there are not regular infantry combat soldiers & the ITBP personnel there too are not trained or equipped for war. Hence, such standoffs have never led to war & will never lead to war as well, period.
To SATYAKI: How can anyone annex a Valley that stays inhabitable for no more than 5 months every year & therefore can never be held militarily in strength throughout the year? Furthermore, the nearest administrative base from where food & POL & ammo resupplies can be transported is at Rutog (see 33 22 33.98 N, 79 43 2.55 E on GoogleEarth Pro) via NH-219 highway, which too isn’t an all-weather highway. Hence, militarily, the PLAGF cannot sustain a permanent presence in Galwan Valley or any other area in northeastern Ladakh as it faces severe vulnerabilities from both Mother Nature & from the superior IA/IAF presence throughout such areas. And as I have mentioned above, unlike the IA, the PLAGF has never been able to deploy any kind of armoured vehicles north of Demchok till this day. Kindly broiwse through all the GoogleEarth slides I’ve uploaded above along with their coordinates to get a good idea of the geography of the terrain, because it seems no one is paying attention to such details when asking questions about war-preparedness.
To VIKRAM GUHA: LoLz! P Stobdan being a native of Ladakh gets emotional & paranoic on such issues. The ground reality is totally different, as I have explained in the answers above. Ther situation is far from grim & is in reality, a bit comical, as explained in bits & pieces here:
ReplyDeletehttps://indianexpress.com/article/explained/china-india-line-of-actual-control-ladakh-6427647/
“The Chinese learnt from the public handling of the Doklam crisis. They thought India would be quick to brief the media, so they did it first and continued to do so. We were calm and measured, calling for discussions and negotiations. They are trying to avoid that kind of situation. Quiet diplomacy has space to produce results in these kinds of situations,” Gautam Bambawale, who was India’s ambassador to China from 2017 to 2018, said.
“On both sides, infrastructure development is going on, and we have caught up in the last 7-8 years in Ladakh in a big way, with improved access to the LAC. I’m using LAC as a loose term because there are different perceptions of the LAC on both sides. These two things together, where the Chinese are concerned that we have better access to the frontier and their LAC is not the same as ours, has led to the situation in Galwan. To link it with FDI norms is a bit of a stretch,” Bambawale added.
“Our established SOPs and drills have not worked this time and new drills will be required as the situation on the ground has changed. But the big thing is the absence of a mutually agreed line – you can call it LAC or whatever–which both armies know is not to be crossed. Till that happens, these situations may occur again.”
India can gain the high moral ground by claiming in the near future that China was the first to violate the BDCA by resorting to violence at Panggong Tso. On what grounds can India use force to expel the PLA-BDR from the Galwan River Valley? Does India have any legally binding document to prove that the area is an inalienable part of India? Is there any map showing the exact length & depth of the LAC? You must therefore not compare the LAC with the LoC. In case of the latter, there are duly signed maps that delineate the jurisdictional limits of each side. No such document exists in case of the LAC. Which then brings me back to the foundational question that no one dares ask: exactly why was the term LAC adopted & accepted in 1993 when there was no agreed-upon definition of what constitutes the LAC? Who were the Indian CLOWNS who not only suggested this terminology, but also shamelessly called it the Line of Peace & Tranquiility? Presently, 2 versions of the LAC exist (one for each country) & consequently neither China nor India can claim the contested territories as being theirs. So once again, don’t compare the LAC with the LoC, & don’t assume that the two are one & the same.
This is bound to rile up the Chinese.
ReplyDeletehttps://tibet.net/representative-scott-perry-introduces-bill-to-recognize-the-tibet-autonomous-region-as-a-separate-independent-country/
To DASHU & VIKRAM GUHA: It seems I have been vindicated through this:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1265211227942170624
The 'Desi bandalbaaz' has yet again been exposed as a fraudster! And I have also uploaded above the slide showing where the PLA-BDR is camping north of Gogra Post. The PLA-BDR camp is at the roundabout constructed by the PLA-BDR east of Kongka la Pass. However, what is to be noted is that GoogleEarth shows China's perception of the LAC via the red-coloured line. The Indian perception of the LAC is known only to the Indian Army & has never been made public. Also to be noted is that China gets to covet not only the captured areas like Aksai Chin, but also the areas falling within its perceived LAC claim-line, while India not only has lost territory, but also never sends its patrols beyond its perceived LAC claim-line. What this means is that psychologically, India has stopped stepping into Aksai Chin despite depicting that entire area as being a sovereign part of India as shown in the latest Survey of India political map. And this in turn greatly diminishes India's claim to Aksai Chin.
To PRRANSHU YADAV: Far more hurting than that is this:
https://cntechpost.com/2020/05/19/on-huaweis-way-to-survival-who-can-offer-helping-hands/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fjtu2ymCXTA
So now China can bid goodbye to all its dreams about quantum computing & 5 G--a pill that will be extremely difficult to digest for all those who were claiming all this while that China stood 9 feet-tall vis-a-vis India. I guess from now on the Dragon's tentacles will no longer be able to tickle India's testicles!!!
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-won-t-back-down-from-stand-off-with-china-at-lac/story-gUeGveAsBgYkyFwMGdDr2J.html
ReplyDeleteGood. Just sit tight, weather it out for another 1 month & the PLA-BDR will start evacuating. Nothing to get agitated about.
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/as-lac-heats-up-india-and-china-activate-border-mechanism-talks-6428896/
That is the mechanism through which subjects of a political nature are discussed & thrashed out. One can only hope that the MEA keeps the CDS informed about all such deliberations, lest the MEA make another gigantic mistake of the type made in the 1990s.
And finally, such idiotic questions & equally idiotic answers should not be aired:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueh7OEOa5BA
Because while the Govt of India is talking about preserving & respecting the status quo (i.e. sticking to only the LAC claim-line limit), the ret'd Lt Gen is talking something totally different, i.e. defending the territorial integrity, which is far from the truth because no one from India's armed forces is venturing into Aksai Chin, which I presume is part of India's territory. It is such conflicting remarks that serve to further confuse the Indian citizens.
Various commentaries on the ongoing LAC standoff:
ReplyDeleteAshok Kantha https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPNaR4iGNjo
Lt Gen D S Hooda https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqv3P2w24n4
Gautam Bambawale https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZMuH06UQU0
Malaysia Mends Its Ways, Drops Support for Pakistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZK-AqUBy28
ReplyDeletehi prasun
you are at your best at times like these giving great clarity for the common guy about standoff like this .
i dont know how t-72 and t-90 tanks are going to add to power projection. or attack helis as well in the china india standof area.china can always use long range anti tank fire and forget and shoulder fired sams as well . The sam range is considerably greater given the high altitude . The sam can apply to India as well.
why does china use russian tu 154 for SAR duties? has package been supplied by russia. ?
If the chinese regulars who are supposedto fight are not adapted to high altitude what are they doing now, where are they?.
i saw a video of a chinese an indian officer arguing , there was chinese guy yelling at the two even when they were talking , is he the political representive trying to up the ante ? does he command more power than the officer?.if so then the officer cannot take any independant decision as well?
sputnik the russian news agency reports that India has tested the r-37m , the r-77sd and the r-74 after the recent standoff with pak. As you said earlier the software for weapons integration is already built in the su-30mki weapons computer in irkuts.
you have mentioned that the r-37 is meant only for awacs, tanker type of aircraft . But given the r-37 hypersonic speed ie mach 5+ can a fighter evade the missile in medium range when the speed as its maximum? Though it was designed for the long range attack? it will also be a good misisle for fighters gong cold as well ?
Is there any program to build a big SAR for MTI and other duties inhouse? after all the algos would be the same that are being used in the uttam radarin SAR mode?. we have the aircraft and the aesa tech as well, what do we lack apart from clear thinking?
ReplyDeletePrasunda Da,
AESA Equipped Jaguar,Beside this what new sub-system are being added in this upgrade program like MAWS,LWR,RWR,Jammers.
https://twitter.com/Maverick_bharat/status/1265266052650467329
Prasunda
ReplyDeleteLots of your usual 'I told you sos' coming about together!! Somewhat old news, but just as you had predicted some weeks ago, the OIC initiated by Maldives (unsurprisingly), Saudi Arabia, UAE 😁 & delightfully Malaysia too worked to put Pakistan along with Turkey in the dog house as far as India is concerned https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/how-pakistans-anti-india-rant-in-oic-was-vetoed-by-uae-with-saudi-support/amp_articleshow/75965846
So, how about that alliance of the willing & India acting differently rather than diffidently? Because, expectedly, if India doesn't buckle as usual to PRC & instead shows some spine to actually get access to some lost areas on LAC while evicting the PLA Border Guards rather than simply waiting it out because the USA has already come out in support of India. Good to remember that Russia remains a natural ally for India. India & Russia mutually need each other for a successful North-South corridor while the PRC is a much bigger threat to Russia rather than US.
One will hopefully soon see synergy between Russia, USA & India. Can India do some out of the box thinking? What happens to the PRC regime or China losing face is less important for India than what India gains as a self-respecting Nation rather than be a push-over of a nation!
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/nepal-postpones-scheduled-discussion-on-constitutional-amendment-to-update-map/articleshow/76035514.cms
ReplyDeleteSeems Nepal getting its sense back after high on chinese opium.
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/us-ready-to-mediate-india-china-border-stand-off-trump/articleshow/76036991.cms ......
Is this loose talk or something is going on under the table..
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/china-says-situation-at-india-border-overall-stable-and-controllable/430410/
Sir has china achieved what they desired to achieve..
1)I agree with you sir.India must move closer to the US.But America might impose sanctions because of our S-400 acquisition.This could be a major stumbling block.How do we get over this obstacle?
ReplyDelete2)Some good news.Nepal seems to be backtracking.QUAD members India and Australia will sign a defence logistics agreement next week.Plus,India is standing firm in Ladakh.
3)What do you make of Trump's offer to mediate between India and China?
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDelete1. Is this how US trying to bring China on its knee by debating about TAR in Congress? Your views about its implications?
2. Trump has proposed to mediate between China and India for resolving border stand-off. Your view please.
3. Second squadron of Tejas Mk1 based on FOC is functional in Sulur. In a two front war, can it play any decisive and desired role. Your view please.
There was a time when i used to read the ``Desi Bundlebaz''. That was 10 years ago. ...never went back to read that fraudster ever. He is as fake as one could get in this business. He is a little conman running agendas for a particular political party through his blog.
ReplyDeleteDada sirkorsky diverting us navy MH60 Romeos for Indian navy and even supplying 3 of them this year. Your take on this and why so much urgency?
ReplyDeletePrasunDa,
ReplyDeletePravin Sawhney is saying that
(1)PLA has 200,000 troops in Tibet;
(2)extraordinary range of cruise missiles; and
(3)Cyber and space based capabilities to dominate electromagnetic spectrum & disrupt India's communications;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMI43f8LfCQ&feature=youtu.be
Do these developments really give PLA the upper hand? Especially Cyber Warfare. China is supposed to have one of the best offensive cyber warfare capability in the world according to CIA.
Thanks
Hello Prasun Sir,
ReplyDeleteI have a few queries regarding the size of our AF.
1) How many Jaguars does the IAF have left in service following all the crashes in years past?
2) How many Mig21 squadrons do we have left? Online sources wary widely. And how many Mig21 are left in the iaf, of all variants?
3) Out of the 50 Su30s that were procured off the shelf from Russia in the 90s and early 2000s, 18 were returned since they were older models. We're these replaced by mki models (not counting the 222 from HAL)?
4) As multiple mig29 have crashed following the contract to upgrade them, how many mig29 does the IAF have left in service?
5) Do the upcoming Rafale for the IAF have IRST sensors?
6) Multiple articles online (probably paid ones) have disparaged the effectiveness of the RBE2AA aesa radars aboard the upcoming Rafale for our air force. In your opinion how capable is the RBE2AA aesa compared to its peers like the Caesar aboard the Eurofighter and various American aesa radars? Is it good enough for our needs vs pak and China?
7) How many meteor missiles have been ordered as part of the Rafale deal?
8) How much have we improved our road connectivity in the border regions with China and how much work is left?
9) Do you think the navy will ever buy 57 multirole fighters in the foreseeable future or has that plan been shelved?
Thanks
Dear Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteVery much thanks for the last reply. Hope everyone in your family and you are in pink of health.
After going through your comments and replies, I believe that China exceeds when it comes to disinformation campaign like it was in 1962. I am not saying that it will be War, my limited point is again when it comes to disinformation campaign, Chinese are much superior to India like it was in 1962 that Chinese pushed for the myth that PLAAF is much superior to IAF and that's why IAF didn't participate in the war except for logistical support.
That also bring one fact to the forefront that how much naive are we as a country when it comes to understanding concepts of strategic importance ( a loose term encompassing everything from warfare to strategic issues and what not).
Chinese may well again attain their strategic objectives if we Indians doesn't understand the game they are trying to play. Get PLA-BDR to intrude across LAC and since there is no formal definition of LAC, Indian media will play the game for you by building pressure on Indian government and then offer a face saving summit and then get India to accept their strategic demands. This is exactly the reaction they are hoping for and they have many strategies on chessboard ready to implement.
I just hope that Americans realize what is going on and give us the full pictures. Which brings to my next question. I visited Leh Ladakh in 2012 and saw the improvements in infrastructure and with you predicting that infrastructure works will be completed by 2024 and COVID-19 crisis will result in significant diminishing of the power of China in international order. Can we then start the patrols in Aksai Chin or is it just a chest thumping issue like the HM of India mentioned in the debate on the removal of article 370.
Regards
To VIKRAM GUHA: LoLz! 1) Exactly what kind of troops? The BDR Regiments are for constabulary use & border management only & hence do not possess any combat potential. Of the rest, only some 25,000 PLAGF spldiers are full-time volunteers while another 40,000 are conscripts. The remainder is made up of People’s Armed Police (PAP) personnel responsible for internal security. Hence, the number of 200,000 does not pose any military threat to India. 2) Range is only 1,000km & that too they are not terrain-hugging but all of them cruise at medium altitudes just like the Nirbhay. 3) Not at all. India has had such high-end bilateral & multilateral security arragments since the 1960s. Here are 2 prime examples:
ReplyDelete1) http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2016/07/hard-reality-versus-popular-perceptions.html
https://theprint.in/opinion/when-a-spy-story-from-india-us-mission-during-the-cold-war-spooked-an-iaf-pilot/227212/
2) 5 Eyes FVEY) is name of the multilateral intelligence-sharing alliance created by the UKUSA Agreement that was originally conceived of as a post-WW-II pact between the UK and the US in 1946 as a way to spy on foreign governments, specifically the USSR. Over the years, the treaty grew in both members and scope. As the Internet and the amount of data available for intercept grew exponentially, the agreement began to focus more on domestic surveillance. The “five” in the 5 Eyes refers to the five Anglophone countries that observe the treaty: Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the US. The treaty has built upon its Cold War roots to become the basis for ECHELON, a series of electronic spy stations around the globe that can intercept data transmitted via telephones, faxes, and computers. Essentially, ECHELON stations can intercept data from transmissions to and from satellite relays. The 5 Eyes alliance is the foundation of an extensive web of partnerships between SIGINT agencies in Western nations to share intelligence with each other. In nearly all respects, the US’ NSA is the global leader in SIGINT, thus most SIGINT agreements, be they multilateral like 5 Eyes or bilateral, focus on who has access to NSA data and technology. Signatories to the UKUSA Agreement are known as “second parties,” and they have the greatest amount of access to NSA data and the closest ties to the agency. Other Western nations, such as members of NATO, Japan, Israel, India & South Korea, are “third parties.” These third party agreements are formal, bilateral arrangements between the NSA and the national SIGINT agency. Third parties can still trade raw data with the NSA, but they have less access to its database. Technically, second parties’ citizens are generally exempt from being spied on without approval from the host country, but the Snowden revelations have shown that the NSA has created a framework that could bypass these blocks.
Cont'd below...
14 Eyes refers to the intelligence group that consists of the 5 Eyes member countries plus Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden participating in SIGINT sharing as third parties. The official name of 14 Eyes is the SIGINT Seniors of Europe (SSEUR), and it has existed, in one form or another, since 1982. Similar to the UKUSA Agreement, its original mission was to uncover information about the USSR. A SIGINT Seniors Meeting is attended by the heads of the SIGINT agencies, (NSA, GCHQ, BND, the French DGSE, etc) and is where they can share intelligence and discuss issues. While this group has many of the same members as “9 Eyes” it is a different group. Also, according to leaked documents, this is not a formal treaty but more an agreement made between SIGINT agencies.
ReplyDelete9 Eyes refers to a group of nations that share intelligence, comprised of the 5 Eyes member countries plus Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and Norway participating as third parties. This group seems to be a more exclusive club of SSEUR and is also not backed by any known treaty, it is simply an arrangement between SIGINT agencies. India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea are all third parties with the NSA as well.
https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/enterprise-capacity/chco/chco-related-menus/chco-related-links/recruitment-and-outreach/217-about/organization/icig-pages/2660-icig-fiorc
Why iaf didnt go for izdeliye 180/ 180-BD..I mean if PAF gets PL15 then again the scenario will remain same...any chance of india getting AIM 260JATM or even desi Meteor that u suggested earlier..any progress on that front??
ReplyDeleteTo RAD: VMT. Lot’s of unwarranted speculation doing the rounds among both confused IFS bureaucrats & ‘desi patrakaars’ nowadays that end up missing the woods while in search for the trees! MBT deployment by the IA is not for offensive power projection per se, but to add more muscle to the mechanised infantry forces in northeastern Ladakh, especially when the PLAGF is unable to deploy such assets there. The PLAAF acquired the four SAR-equipped from Russia way back in the mid-1990s. The PLAGF regulars inside Tibet Military District are within the confines of theior respective home-bases & they periodically go further north to Qinghai or Ningxis for their scheduled exercises at this time of the year. The PLAGF officer who was yelling was the Political Commisar. R-37M AAM was NEVER tested by the IAF. To date, no LRAAM has been developed for shooting down MRCAs. It is possible to evade ramjet-powered BVRAAMs by taking timely evasive action like getting out of the illuminating envelope of the launch-aircraft’s MMR. However, if the BVRAAM is equipped with data-links for receiving course-updates from a multitude of MMRs, then the targetted MRCA has almost no chances of survival.
ReplyDeleteTo ANUP: The Tejas Mk.1 SP-21 of No.17 ‘Flying Bullets’ Sqn is armed with a GSH-23 cannon, but the cannon cannot be used until it is certified for use by CEMILAC.
PA Downs Indian Quadcopter at Rakhchakri Sector:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OysdxUOHmYE
To SUSAN: It was all detailed here:
http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/05/idf-af-becomes-worlds-first-air-force.html
To BUDDHA: So far it has. But the desired end-state of China has not yet been reached. And further commentaries about the LAC situation, all aired yesterday:
Lt Gen Narsimhan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMWOohl15fw
Shyam Saran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlH0iBqmSNE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkSzWSmBae0
Roundtables: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7hDwc4XVpc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJCG1F6UF2A
Yeshwant Sinha: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6cgqqBhniU
Impending Himalayan Earthquake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aYp0Ra3Up4
To ARUN: 1) India already has. No sanctions have been imposed as of today. 2) It will only serve to further anger & embarrass China. 3) How can just one Tejas Mk.1 make any meaningful contribution to any conflict? A minimum of 4 such aircraft is reqd for resurrecting a function squadron. Yesterday’s event was a mere symbolic one.
To BLACK_RAVEN: He got arse-whipped again last night here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NATSKrwXqtY&t=9s
To SUMIT SEN: It is all part of an effort by the US to solidify the QUAD & give it a strong military dimension.
To KIDDO: JLR may well be owned by an India-HQed MNC company, but at the end of the day JLR is a UK-registered & based company that is subject to the UK’s & not India’s laws & regulations.
To PRAMODW: 1) About 120. 2) 4 Sqns with about 110 MiG-21 Bisons. 3) Wrong. Only the 18 Su-30Ks that were delivered in 1996 were returned back. The first 50 Su-30MKIs delivered by Russia were not meant for return. 4) About 48. 5) Of course. 6) Those are baseless rumours from internet fanboys. 7) About 110, including training rounds. 8) Full road-connectivity will be achieved only by 2024. 75% of the work has been completed.9) No
To KAUSTAV: Following a few CRV sessions, a few interesting updates have been unearthed:
ReplyDelete1) The apex-level central Military Commission (CMC) of Beijing never wanted tactical-level talks between the PLAGF & IA ground commanders to produce any results. Instead, they were meant only for buying time so that the CMC could gauge the geo-political pulse of the GoI. Thus, after more than 20 days, only early yesterday the ‘Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC)’ mechamism was activated for initiating political negotiations. Hence, the conciliatory & reassuring statement yesterday coming from China’s Ambassador to India.
2) The multi-pronged activities of the PLA across 4 points along the LAC’s western & central sectors is aimed at securing a heavy/vital concession from India, notably the reversing of India’s 2010 decision of not reiterating that TAR is an inalienable part of the PRC. India, it may be recalled, had stopped mentioning TAR as being an integral part of China in 2010 after China continued to issue stapled-paper visas to Indians residing in both J & K & Arunachal Pradesh. And China's combative diplomacy involving successive PLA-initiated standoffs in Ladakh began in 2013. Now China wants India to go back to its pre-2010 stance on TAR because Beijing fears another round of widespread uprisings inside Tibet after the draconian legislations regarding Hongkong SAR are ratified by Beijing’s National People’s Congress. So, if India relents, then the Dharmasala-based Tibetan Govt-in-Exile will be rendered toothless & the influence of HH the Dalai Lama will be further eroded, thereby greatly diminishing the moral ascendancy of the indigenous/native resistance forces inside Tibet.
3) There are also reasons to believe that all is not well with the Panchem Lama, though it is yet to be determined if this is concerning the genuine Panchem lama who was selected by the Dalai Lama, or the Beijing-appointed Panchem Lama. In any case, China’s demands & expectations are all TAR-centric, nothing else.
All talk about China being concerned about India’s border connectivity-related infrastructure development or India’s concerns about China’s transportation connectivity along & up to the LAC is mere speculation emanating from ill-informed commentators. This is because all roads & railway tracks are easily destroyed/interdicted by the kind of airpower possessed by both the IAF & PLAAF & hence none of the two countries can claim to have an advantage over one another as far as transportation connectivity goes.
Even I aggree with This CRV outcomes is very likely but why this time..I mean Taiwan and hon Kong and vivid 19 front is already opened against china...is it good for more negativity for china in this scenario for a aspiring global power...and why such sweet diplomatic statement suddenly from China side ??
ReplyDeletePrasunda,
ReplyDeleteTHANKS AS USUAL...Remote viewing is what I had in mind😁 as usual your clairvoyance or mind reading is outstanding. (Mekong tomay LaL Selam, Amar Nam Tomar Nam Ekti Nam Vietnam Vietnam & add Tibet to it since similar origin of Ganga & Mekong while Brahmaputra is Yarlung TsangPo). If it wasn't the Irony of it all for US & PRC & Bong LWers, India needs allies and self respecting nations like Vietnam as India heads to the South China Sea or rather the CHAMPA SEA. As Dr.S.Jaishankar congratulates the ASI Team for it's outstanding work of restoring the Shiva Temples & Shivling in Myson Vietnam,of the Cham/Champa nation it's cultural heritage & brotherhood time. Tibet will be taken too Azad Tibet if it's like POK for India or a friendly Tibet like Bangladesh with Kailas Mansarovar region with India or better still joint trust since it rightfully belongs to us both. India has been in the dark too long. Tibet is the repository of India's ancient knowledge. Modern India has sinned. The British didn't betray Tibet. FREE INDIA did. It's time to reclaim & culturally unite the lands of Mahadev & his legions of Bhaktas
To AMIT BISWAS: It was all explained above to KAUSTAV. Nor does PL-15 exist. It is just a figment of imagination of internet fanboys. Meanwhile, this is why IAKN was crying hoarse about an impending military retaliation (false-flag operation according to him) from India:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pulwama-s-60-kg-car-bomb-seized-by-cops-could-be-lashkar-jaish-joint-op/story-H27kv45oXh28DWmFPuJMSI.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmeI-UX-Dag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vEcH37Y_kQ
Now, since India has already gathered all the forensic evidence from the IED prior to detonating it, it is up to IAKN to explain how come he had advanced knowledge of such an impending terrorist operation & why was he so confident about the end-state that he was predicting (that the IED would find its target & explode, thereby leaving no evidence behind). Al in all, an excellent intelligence-based operation conducted by the J & K Police, which deserves all our congratulations & gratitude.
Prasun,
ReplyDeleteDeviating a bit.. has this issue been resolved by HAL while we wait on the outcome on ka 226t..https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/looming-crisis-lack-of-hal-blades-for-choppers-likely-to-haunt-army-in-siachen/articleshow/67581540.cms?from=mdr.....
the IAF had ordered 20 cheetals+ a couple were given to the afghan airforce. Guess these are imp pieces of machinery in the himalayan terrain
if the issues are fixed, we can continue to produce them as these could be used like the way little bird has been used by the US for spl ops grps of the CAPS(eg- NSG, cobras etc) and cud be exported as lot cost alternative to boeing AH-6 ..
I am happy that this terrorist attack was foiled.But I am irritated by the fact that Pakistan continues to attempt to carry out terrorist attacks.And I am equally irritated by the fact that India is not more aggressive.The terrorists who die will get replaced by other terrorists.It is important to make the Pakistani Army feel the pain.And the actions taken by the government need to be proactive and not reactive.I feel that Indian decision makers have had a mostly defensive mindset since Independence(barring a couple of exceptions).Something like an Operation Kabaddi is needed.We need to capture some territory every time when there is a terrorist attack or even if there is an imminent threat of a terror attack(like there was this time),even if the territory captured is just 1 village.The only thing that will discourage them is loss of territory every time they carry out or attempt to carry out a terrorist attack.And it is something that they won't be able to deny either.But when will the decision makers of India realize this?I keep hoping that the endgame of J&K/PoK is near but it just goes on and on.
ReplyDeleteSir, Jammu Kashmir police has done a great job by averting a major attack. But will it be avenged? Or are we going to do nothing because it was foiled? This must be treated like the Pulwama attack. If I were the PM I would order the IAF to carry out another airstrike.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your views regarding pravin sawhney and his analysis.does he speaks truth or highly exaggerates Things.
ReplyDeleteDear Prasun,
ReplyDeleteMay you please explain why F35 doesn't fit into India's requirements? I have never got into it.
PrasunDa,
ReplyDeleteLt Gen (Retd.)Panag's assessment
https://theprint.in/opinion/china-believes-india-wants-aksai-chin-back-thats-why-it-has-crossed-lac-in-ladakh/430899/
He says China believes India wants Aksai Chin back. Plus he also says that this is yet another failure on the part of Indian Intelligence organizations to notice the movement of large PLA battalions.
Lt Gen Hooda said that LAC alignment in Galwan was previously clear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69x3wHs5bss&feature=emb_logo
Will eagerly wait to hear your point of view.
Thank You
ReplyDeletehiprasun
do you see a MAWS on the FOC LCA ,i cant find it?
Prasun sir, We lost 640 sq km of territory to China in Ladakh during UPA 2? This is very shocking if true. What was IA doing? twitter.com/ians_india/status/1266021499439374336
ReplyDeleteDada, Lt Gen Panag (retd) is painting a very bleak picture for India. What is your opinion on this theprint.in/opinion/china-believes-india-wants-aksai-chin-back-thats-why-it-has-crossed-lac-in-ladakh/430899/
ReplyDeleteHere comes brazilian scorpene sub folks..is it any way similar to ours?? I could see they have used top notch Schneider make electricals
DeleteWhat about ours??
https://twitter.com/BaharudinRMN/status/1264106880026079233?s=20
Prasun sir,
ReplyDeleteThanks for previous replies
1) Since India has all 50 su 30mki from Russia, and because there have been 11 crashes involving su30mkis, that would leave us with around 261 su30mkis in service once all 222 have been delivered from HAL, right?
2) Can you share the name and some info on the IRST sensor aboard the Rafale meant for our airforce?
3) This would mean that India would soon have 3 aircraft with IRST sensors - su 30mki, mig29, Rafale.
In the event of any necessity, would these sensors be effective in countering stealth aircraft?
4) Does the figure of 48 mig29 that you mentioned include trainers also. If not how many mig29 trainers do we have left?
5) Apart from the planned induction of 50 odd block 3 Jf 17 fighters does the PAF have plans to induct any other more advanced fighters to counter Rafale?
6) Can the aesa radar equipped mk1a version of Tejas be compared to Jas39 Gripen E/F in performance and capability?
7) How many mirage 2000s do we have left in air force including trainers?
Thanks
If indian army was dominating upto finger 4 then how come Chinese entered upto finger 2...btw is it true that IA patrolled upto finger 8 before kargil..and if yes why no successive govt or army took up th case and maintained 1998 status quo..why are army gets pissed off seeing Chinese..doesn't field commander have adequate powers across LAC like LOC??
ReplyDeleteBtw ur odea of getting cheap A330 airframes is getting traction in twitter, every self styled defence xpert is suggesting this idea ...anyway we know who is the actual credit holder🤫🙏👍🤪🙂
ReplyDeleteTo JUST_CURIOUS: Producing just Type-85 blades isn’t enough. Along wityh such new blades, new-design main rotor-hubs are also required. If not, then rotor-blade balancing won’t take place & hence the consequent excessive vibration, that can cause the entire airframe to break up into 2 in mid-air. How HAL could overllok such an elementary engineerting detail is beyond me. As for the botched-up suicide-bombing attempt yesterday, it will take some days for the forensic evidence to be placed within a legal format by the NIA, following which the FIR & subsequent chargesheets will be filed. Only after such documentation gets available will it be presented to the FATF.
ReplyDeleteTo PRATAP: It will form part of the crucial evidence that will be presented by India to the FATF, plus the corroborative evidence gathered by Afghanistan’s NDS, especially the Pakistani citizens captured alive by the ANA.
To UNKNOWN: As far as the capabilities of the PLA are concerned, they are greatly exaggerated & it has now become known that all this while, China was heavily dependent on foreign hardware for trying to develop state-of-the-art military & telecommunications hardware solutions. But since the imposition of sanctions by the US & the blacklisting of several China-based OEMs & their proxies in Hongkong SAR & Cayman Islands, China’s rocket launchers, for example, have started failing & blowing up in mid-flight. All th details now coming out can be found here:
https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-department-add-two-dozen-chinese-companies-ties-wmd-and
https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2019/10/us-department-commerce-adds-28-chinese-organizations-its-entity-list
https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-department-add-nine-chinese-entities-related-human-rights
https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2020/05/commerce-addresses-huaweis-efforts-undermine-entity-list-restricts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T26s3uCeqKE
To ASD: As I have explained SEVERAL times before, to procure the F-35 & all its cutting-edge technological capabilities, one has to be a treaty-based partner or alliance partner of the US. India is not, unlike Japan, Australia, South Korea & the NATO member-states,
To RAD: MAWS was not meant to be internally installed on Tejas Mk.1. Even on the Mk.1A, it has to be installed on pylon-mounted structures, as I had explained several times before.
To SATYA: The IA & ITBP lost administrative control over such territories because they never dared to advance & establish their Ops & pickets, whereas the PLA took advantage of every opportunity to do so. Strangely, no one questions former COAS Gen V P Malik over how come the PLA succeeded in building roads between Finger 8 and Finger 4 areas at Panggong Tso Lake just when OP Vijay was underway between May & August 1999. Wasn't that another major intelligence failure as well? Or was the IA being callous in its patrolling duties in that area at that time? So, the bottom line is that every successive GoI since the 1950s has been complicit in hiding such bitter truths from the citizens of India.
To VIKRAM GUHA & VARUN: The former has presented the worse-case miitary appreciation (meaning only a probability & not an assured event), while the latter is totally wrong. For, as I had explained earlier above, how can the LAC’s alignment & dimensions be a settled matter in any of the 3 sectors when none of the two countries have signed off on a common LAC grid-map? Even a mere sharing of the opposing LAC maps based on their respective perceptions cannot be ASSUMED to be a settled matter unless stated so in black-in-white on a piece of paper. And since no such paper exists, almost everyone is now now indulging in fudging the issue. Only the likes of Lt Gens Vinod Bhatia & Narasimhan have been at pains to explain that one has to contend with 2 opposing perceptions of the LAC. And when that happens, it is your word against mine, i.e. no consensus on a mutually-binding solution or definition.
ReplyDeleteThis is similar to what had happened in 1988 when the ‘desi media’ was tutored to proclaim then PM Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Beijing as pathbreaking & a huge success, when in reality, it was his govt that agreed to China’s requests for postponing indefinitely all road construction activities by India along the McMahon Line & elsewhere along the Sino-Indian frontier from Turtuk in J & K all the way to Walong in Arunachal Pradesh, which had begun in 1981 under OP FALCON, when Gen K V Krishna rao was the IA’s COAS. Similarly, no one questions former COAS Gen V P Malik over how come the PLA succeeded in building roads between Finger 8 and Finger 4 areas at Panggong Tso Lake just when OP Vijay was underway between May & August 1999. Wasn't that another major intelligence failure as well? Or was the IA being callous in its patrolling duties in that area at that time?
And the most important question of all that I had raised 4 days ago: why was the LAC not defined in precise terms back in 1993 by India when it was decided to use the term LAC & why were China & India unable to come up with a mutually agreed-upon & unitary definition of the LAC & agree on adhering to a common map? Why were both countries allowed to continue using their own maps showing their own respective perceptions of the LAC? Wasn't this a sure recipe for disaster back then as well? Or did India’s decision-makers BLINDLY ASSUME that just like India, China too would not improve its land transportation networks along the LAC? Can anyone from either today’s GoI or any former diplomat from India’s MEA’s China Study group answer such questions?
Even this time, as the PLA started mobilising early January this year for going up north to the base of the Kunlun mountain range to the southeastern edge of the Taklamatan Desert for its annual live-firing drills, the NTRO should have kept an eye on such mobilisations & their transportation routes via Ngari & Rutog—the main logistics & armament/POL storage bases. But since there are not enough ISTR platforms like the 2 Bombardier 5000As fitted with belly-mounted SAR sensors (a total of nine such platforms are required), the NTRO failed to pick up the military traffic that began moving in March from Ngari towards Rutog & from there to further westwards to destinations along the LAC in northeastern Ladakh.
Here's one such exercise that was conducted earlier this year:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4WqXjsgDPc
This is how FAKE NEWS is being peddled around nowadays:
ReplyDeleteBack in 2006, a 1:500 (900 metres x 700 metres) scale terrain model of eastern Aksai Chin, comprising a mountainous landscape complete with lakes, valleys and snow-capped peaks, was spotted after it was built near the town of Huangyangtan, about 35km southwest of Yinchuan, the capital of the autonomous region of Ningxia in China. This terrain model incidentally represents an area of around 450 km x 350km. In India, is was first reported here:
http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/from-sky-see-how-china-builds-model-of-indian-border-2400-km-away/9972
Then it was picked up from there & regurgitated by this arsehole:
http://kalyugikalki.blogspot.com/2009/12/chinese-war-game-plan-terrain-model.html
Now, 14 years later it was the turn of this arsehole to regurgitate:
https://twitter.com/rajfortyseven/status/1265855410596003840
And this in turn was transformed by these 2 arseholes into BREAKING NEWS yesterday:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_RdzyiPvIw&t=1317s
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteBy China's rocket launchers failing and blowing up mid flight, do you mean MBRL rockets or NLOS-BSMs? Where was this reported ? Would they have similar problems in the future with strategic missiles now that the U.S. is cracking down on their supply of cutting edge components?
Satyaki
Sir aap apni advice blog se alag dijiye GOI ya Def personnel ko. Aksar aisa lagta hai blog ko padhne ke baad ki Chutiyon ki jammat baithi hui hai pta kisi ko kuch hai nhi or bedagark krte rehte hai.Chahe fir kisi bhi ki Govt ho
ReplyDeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteIs there any possibility of of ordering more chinook and Romeo helicopters soon?
Regards
John
Dear Prasun da,
ReplyDeleteThanks once again for detailed post on current situation at LAC. Wish somebody in establishment read this and show some guts to take bull by horns. Do you think that India will be able to take this land without compromising on issues of Taiwan, TAR and Quad.
2. Why can't India counter china by intruding few kilometers in chinese side of LAC somewhere. Why India is always reactive be it China or Pakistan.
Thanks & Warm Regards,
https://newsable.asianetnews.com/india/air-defence-command-need-to-hasten-slowly-serving-chiefs-best-to-take-calls-qb1ekn
ReplyDeleteWhat is your take in this.
To GAURANG & PAWAN KUMAR: Arey bhai/o yaar, those sitting in the corridors of power in Delhi know everything that’s going on. Only on TV they are playing games with the ‘desi media’. Here is one such example to further buttress my point (explained above to KAUSTAV 2 days ago) about China becoming especially jittery about TAR:
ReplyDelete1) On November 13, 2019, House of Representatives introduced a draft resolution regarding an independent Tibet and His Holiness the Dalai Lama’s work toward global peace. The resolution was titled “Recognising the significance of the genuine autonomy of Tibet and the Tibetan people and the work His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama has done to promote global peace, harmony, and understanding”. It emphasised US support for Tibetans’ struggle for human rights and freedoms, and the protection of Tibet’s national identity. The resolution also referenced recent trips by designated US Ambassadors to Tibet and to meet HH the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala–all such visits were condemned by China–to discuss ways to advance religious freedoms.
2) In yet another landmark victory for Tibetans and Tibet supporters around the world, the US House of Representatives on January 29, 2020 overwhelmingly passed the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (HR 4331), the most comprehensive policy bill on Tibet since the Tibet Policy Act- 2002. The super-majority vote on the legislation is a landmark show of support by the US for the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA), the Middle Way Policy and genuine autonomy for Tibetans, religious freedom, environmental protection of Tibetan plateau and restoration of freedom in Tibet. Dr Lobsang Sangay of the CTA was in Washington DC in September and November last year drumming up support for the bill and met with 21 Senators and Congresspersons
3) US lawmaker Scott Perry 3 days ago introduced a bill n Congress that would authorise the US President to recognise the Tibet Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China as a separate, independent country. This is part of the US ramping up the pressure to counter-balance China’s heavy-handed approach towards Hongkong SAR & Taiwan.
Now, from the above it is obvious that without India’s approval Dr Sangay could not have stepped out of India to go to the US, nor could the US Ambassadors to Tibet have meet HH the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala without India’s approval. So, what then is this New Great game going on between the US & India on one hand, and China on the other? Was China greatly disturbed by what was going on between the US & Tibetan CTA (which is the Tibetan Govt-in-Exile at Dharamshala) & wanted India to pro-actively prevent such developments? Therefore, are the ongoing standoffs along the LAC a clear message by China to India to stop all overseas activities/visits of the CTA? And finally, is this why China wants India to start reiterating once again (India had stopped doing so in 2010) that India recognises TAR as an inseparable part of China? Because if India does not, China will only conclude that India is hand-in-glove with the US in supporting the CTA, whose ultimate goal is to achieve full independence from China.
All of the above certainly validates the conclusion/outcome from my earlier CRV sessions, which showed that the reason for the latest military standoffs along the LAC is TAR-centric, and nothing else.
To PRAMODW: 1) Nope. There vwas another batch of 18 Su-30MKIs procured directly from Russia early this decade. 2) It was described here:
ReplyDeletehttp://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/05/osf-and-skyward-irst-sensors_30.html
3) Yes to both. 4) Yes. There are always 2 tandem-seaters in each squadron. 5) Yes, the Shenyang FC-31 twin-engined MMRCA from China. 6) Yes. 7) About 48.
To AMIT BISWAS: VMT. The same fitment from Schneider is also standard on all IN CM-2000 Scorpenes.
To SATYAKI: Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T26s3uCeqKE
China’s latest satellite launch rocket, fired from Hainan Island, failed in its maiden flight. The MBRL rockets & NLOS-BSMs of China make use of fibre-optic gyro-based inertial navigation systems built under licence in China, with the foreign collaborator being Norway’s SENSONOR:
https://www.sensonor.com/
All China-developed standoff PGMs like the FT-series glide-bombs (with the so-called REK kit supplied by China to Pakistan) use such FOG-based INS. But such navigational aids too make use of US-built microchips & hence will come under the ambit of recent US blacklistings.
To UNKNOWN: No, not so soon. But perhaps in the following fiscal year.
To PAWAN KUMAR: Regrettably, India unilaterally surrendered the opportunity to undertake patrols into Aksai China way back in the mid-1950s & even before the war broke out in 1962, India had unilaterally imposed self-imposed limits on the patrolling of vast areas in both Ladakh & Aksai Chin and therefore it is now too late to reverse this self-imposed limitation & that’s why Indian MEA officials keep on harping about the respecting the sanctity about an abstraction called the LAC.
Btw does Pakistan have any financial power to take up the FC 31 or it will be sponsored by china??
DeleteRafale is capable to take on FC 31 or we need Su 57 for that as AMCA delivery is in doubt and F35 is also NA??
Can a limited war possible in the desputed area between china and India.
ReplyDeleteDoes Indian armed forces stand to loose or gain in such scenario.
Can India regain the lost territories via limited intensive battle in the coming days..
Why Trump not criticizing china for this misadventure
Sir, thanks for the reply. So we controlled area up to Finger 8 but lost it when China build a road up to Finger 5 while we were engaged in Kargil? Now we control area up to Finger 4 but we do patrol up to Finger 8 as mentioned by Panag. So area beyond Finger 4 is not inaccessible to us does that mean all is not lost at least in pangong area? Why don't we establish posts beyond Finger 4?
ReplyDeletePrasun,
ReplyDelete1-Now that India is heading the WHO.. which side will it tilt on including taiwan as an independent entity in WHO...
2- You may have answered this previously but nevertheless wanted to know , how do we consolidate our position in afghanistan.. else the 3 bln we have spent is a waste of money
As far as the liberation of Tibet is concerned,I think that it can be freed only through a 1971 like action.India can't do a 1971 to Tibet at the moment since you did say a few days ago that India has limited offensive capabilities at the present(until it acquires more choppers and artillery).So America has to be the country that does it.But I doubt that America and China will be involved in a military conflict so soon.America will impose a lot of sanctions and hit China economically but military conflict seems to be unlikely right now.I do not think that there will be a war between America and China for the next 20 years at least.And if/when it happens,it will be in a world war 3 scenario with multiple countries involved.So the liberation of Tibet still seems to be far away sir.Would you agree with that sir?
ReplyDeleteSir, this is a post on the tactics used by Serbian forces against the NATO aircraft during NATO's air campaign over erstwhile Yugoslavia, that I recently wrote on my blog. Most of these tactics are still relevant in the modern battlefield. Hope you enjoy reading it.
ReplyDeletehttps://prranshu.com/nato-air-campaign-over-yugoslavia/
Prasunda,
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/new_invent/status/1266113827076059136
Does this indicate the PLA is moving A-100s to the region near the standoff? Do we have matching assets in position?
Satyaki
Dada, is the IA capable of going across 2-3 kms into Chinese side of LAC and pitch camps there? If yes, then this option must be excercised. Or it will be very demoralising for our troops. Give them as good as we get.
ReplyDeletePrasun Da,
ReplyDeleteThis is what Brahma Chellaney said today about the PLA incursion
https://twitter.com/Chellaney/status/1265885866582392832?s=20
Would like to know your views on this.
Thanks
Prasun Da, out of India and China, is not the PRC which is quite in backfoot, and the CPC is now facing an existential crisis, which seems to me that one of their General getting paranoid and issuing invasion threat to Taiwan , and Xi telling PLA to prepare for the war? As such, they are desperate to avail concession from India on Tibet, that's why they have sent signal for talks so quickly, rather than past during Dokalam, hope India, keep the same in miind at the time of the negotiation. Kindly share your views. Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteRecent reports suggest that china has mobilised heavy artillery. Is there going to be a war.
ReplyDeleteShubham
Hello sirji!
ReplyDeleteAfter a long time,again,I got few questions:
1.I recently attended one of the webinar which was arranged by my university with an employee of ARDC,HAL.Fortunately, I got an oppportunity to ask her a question.I asked that what kind of material you are going to use for fabrication of upcoming FGFA.Interestingly,she said that we are going to use Titanium with composites.In whole webinar,she constantly kept praising India's effort on LCA and even said that Tejas is FULLY designed in India.I quickly recalled your one of the post that said that HAL back in 90s hired Dassault(if I remember it correctly) for design process's consultancy.Why do HAL/ADA have folks who constantly keep chanting it as 100% Indian work?And besides,doyou really think it's something to be proud of considering that they didn't even have some basic features even as of today?I might be wrong perhaps.What do you think?
2.Sir do you think this whole stand-off will cool down till the September?
3.In the absence of TSD,what alternate the IA have?Afterall,someone needed to fill the void.
Thanks sirji..
To BUDDHA & EVERYONE ELSE: Nobody wants war nor are the ground deployments made recently meant for wahing war, something I had explained before. But do watch this memorable debate that was aired yesterday in which only Prof P Stobdan & Ret’d Lt Gen Syed Atta Hasnain spelt out the reality, plus China’s motives & intentions. I suggest you bookmark this link, for it will for a very long time be the only authoritative explanation of what’s going on & why:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTQYi_9ovCk&t=733s
Here are the main points of this panel discussion as enunciated by Prof P Stobdan & Ret’d Lt Gen Syed Atta Hasnain (the rest of the panelists were engaging in delusional bullshitting):
1) The ongoing PLA-BDR deployments along the LAC are meant ONLY for strategic messaging, and not for going to any kind of war.
2) The PLA began preparing for the deployments soon after India altered to status of J & K on August 5, 2019.
3) The terrain of Ladakh is such that only high-altitude plateau warfare is possible, since Ladakh is an extension of the Tarim Basin of China & hence no wars will be fought in any of the mountain ranges around Ladakh (the Karakoram & Himalayan). Consequently, the IA’s Mountain Strike Corps (MSC) will be next to useless there, which in turn means that India unnecessarily wasted money on raising the MSC.
4) The PLA’s deployments along the LAC are all defensive in nature, given the fact that China till this day does not have any dedicated air base anywhere in TAR that can be put to use against India. Consequently, it is entirely possible that China has been feeling the heat from India’s force-mix restructuring that has been underway in Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh & Uttarkhand since 2012, and fears losing Aksai Chin if India’s force redeployments go unchecked & unchallenged.
5) Therefore, it is very much possible that this time, China is likely to begin bargaining with India to arrive at a final settlement on the status of Aksai Chin, since under no condition does China want to forego Aksai Chin.
Dont u believe its strategic miscalculation on part of modi shah and doval to not expect and antocipate a chinese response while abrogating article 370..non of the intelligence agency also h8l8ted it ..it seems even after kargil debacle and 20 years after intelligence continues to be lethargic for india
DeleteTo SATYA: No. The IA controlled only up to Finger-4 24/7, but sent its patrols up to Finger-8 & all such patrols always returned back to Finger-4, meaning the IA never had any desire for making permanent bases & observation posts at Finger-8. And consequently the PLA-BDR found it unoccupied & uncontested & therefore set up their permanent posts.
ReplyDeleteTo JUST-CURIOUS: The agenda for the WHO is made & dictated by the biggest financial donors, not India. The position in Afghanistan has already been consolidated & that explains why the Afghanistan-based Balochistan armed resistance has achieved some notable military successes in recent times inside Balochistan.
To KAUSTAV: Ancient Shivlinga Found in Vietnam:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RF_TVdabvEs
Military Movements in Xinjiang Military Command & Not in Tibet Military District:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPJwkcwiMJE
IAF Su-30MKIs flying over Panggong Tso: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Grk05KTdVGw
China Maps https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sd-9uAgrlZc
Lipulekh https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDJZbdMH9Pg
Free Tibet Bill of the US Congress: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4W8tiNwOD4
How the IA Defuses Unexploded PA Mortar Rounds:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HEviIE40Wg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8Zw4btuADc
To PRRANSHU YADAV: VMT. I will go through it.
To AMIT BISWAS: Of course China will bankroll this procurement. Even after the FC-31s begin being produced by the end of this decade, the Rafale will still be a generation ahead of it.
To SATYAKI: Those are vehicles of the Xinjiang Military Command & the roads shown are in Xinjiang, niot in TAR. So, beware of such FAKE NEWS.
To VARUN: Why only 3km? Firstly, the PLA-BDR tentages are not anywhere near the nearest IA/ITBP posts in those areas. Secondly, the PLA has since the mid-1950s set up permanent structures hundreds of km inside Indian territory, which is Aksai Chin. How come then no one has had the spine to evict them since 1962? Consequently, if one does not worry about losing hundreds of sq km of territory, why expect one to try something audacious for gaining such 3 km of territory in-depth?
To VIKRAM GUHA: He is a periodic bullshitter, kindly rest assured.
To SUMANTA NAG: That’s what I have been explaining these past few days, i.e. China is on the defensive & now wants to negotiate some sort of a deal with India.
To UNKNOWN/SHUBHAM: That’s fake news, especially like the video showing vehicles inside Xinjiang, but the internet fanboys falsely claiming that they are inside TAR.
To PRAJJWAL DALAL: 1) Maybe because they suffer from kind of inferiority complex. Of course the detailed design of the Tejas LCA was done fully by ADA, but by using Dassault Systemes’ CATIA CAD software. 2) Of course. If not, the weather there will ensure that no one there stays alive to far too long. 3) The NTRO has now taken over that responsibility.
Recent reports suggest that china has mobilised heavy artillery. Is there going to be a war.This is exactly the same as an official or a reliable source saying things under condition of anonymity. What that means is anyone wanting to stir up rumour can make up things and pass on as "reports", "statements emanating" etc. In simple terms CRAP.
ReplyDeleteAnd before anyone asks, let me clarify that the Indian PM did not speak to POTUS WRT the ongoing standoff along the LAC. But the POTUS has the means of knowing that the Indian PM was "not in a good mood about what's going on with China". How? Because the POTUS relies on his son-in-law Jared Kushner to act as a behind-the-scenes messenger when communicating with both China & India. Kushner's contact in the US is the Boston-based brother of Ram Madhav. But the 'desi patrakaars' have been unable to make this discovery so far!!!
ReplyDeleteHas India moved M777 and Bofors at Galwan since Chinese had artillery support ready
ReplyDeleteAny updates about weaponisation of HAL rudra and LCH ?? Any possibilities for integrating hellfire on rudra and LCH for commonality?? Also APKWS from Bae is coming for IN with MH60R , does IAF/IA has any interest for such laser guided rockets for APACHE/LCH/RUDRA...it will bring down the cost of inventory I believe..any drdo plans for heliborne laser guided rockets??
ReplyDeleteDear Prasun,
ReplyDeleteTibet is China's ticket to hegemony
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEo4NNo7oaM
After watching the above video, tough times ahead for India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Burma and Vietnam.
Is India having any strategy to counter China or finally India will become another colony to China.
Please comment.
Thanks & Regards
Senthil Kumar
Many thanks for your earlier reply to my preivous questions.
ReplyDeleteToday I read that IAF is about to issue yet another RFP for Tankers - probably with the A330 MRTT being the preferred option.
Doesnt it also make sense for the IAF to procure latest KC - 130 tanker aircraft, since C130s are already in operation and their numbers in IAF inventory will go up in future.
Would it not lead to greater savings in terms of Base Infra, Maintenance Spares, Training etc. Plus it would have substantial local content through TATA-LM JV in India
Or is there some technical reasons why IAF cant use these aircraft to refuel its fighters - Rafale, Su30, Mirage 2000, Mig29 UPG or Tejas
I recently saw a LM promo video with KC 130 tanking their "F21" fighters in IAF livery through a probe system. Is that not viable for some reason
Thanks
Prasun sir,
ReplyDeleteIt is now clear that china want some kind of concession from india to withdraw its forces. Should india give it chine in a plate? Or india would take strong action? What would be the future course of action for india
Regards
Hello Prasun,
ReplyDeleteSince the redrawing of borders after the 1962 war has PRC made any permanent net gains of territory in Indian controlled Ladakh. You mentioned that PRC occupied some pasture land. Is this still under PRC control. So how much net land gains has PRC made against India if at all
I am not talking about our territorial losses before and during 62 war
I am asking about losses between 1963 and the present time
1)If indeed we have lost territory post 1963 can you tell how much in sq kms.
ReplyDelete2) It is my understanding that India has a mechanized brigade each in ladakh and Uttarkhand 2 mechanized brigades in Sikkim each with 2 Armored Regiments and two Bmp battalions. Am I correct.
Many Thanks
3) I have also heard a few years back that 2 of the mountain divisions in Arunachal have an armored company each. That sounds odd as by itself an armored company by itself per division makes no sense unless it is solely for reconnaissance or they are a nucleus around which a regiment size armored unit will be built. Please verify if we do indeed have armored companies in Arunachal or this is misinformation.
ReplyDeleteMany thanks
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteBut is'nt Aksai Chin (at least parts of it) administered by China as part of Xinjiang rather than TAR ? So the roads where the A-100 was seen moving could well be near Aksai Chin, unless they have been geolocated to some far away part of Xinjiang.
Satyaki
Prasun Da,
ReplyDeleteIs it true?? The PAWS family of Missile Warning Systems are present on the
IAF fleet of CH-47F(I) Chinooks and AH-64E Apache Guardians,in place of the regular AN/AAR-57 CMWS.
https://twitter.com/Parthu_Potluri/status/1112002273838854149
Can you give details what kind of MAWS,LWR,RWR present in IAF fleet of C17 and C130s.
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDelete1. Do you think that now India under the leadership of Modi and NDA is handling the China incursion in sensible manner? If not, what should else India needs to do?
2. What should be India's strategy to claim Aksai chin area as per you considering all the past mistakes committed?
Prasun sir,
ReplyDeleteThanks for previous replies
1) Online publications suggest that the IR sensor from the OSF suite for the Rafale has been removed due to obsolescence and a new one will be added for F4.1 version. Considering IAF version of Rafale is based on F3 version, does the IAF Rafale come with an IR sensor in the OSF suite? If so is it the French one meant for the F4 version or a third party one?
2) Considering there are several India specific enhancements for the Rafale, is the IAF version only as good as the F3 version or the or is it comparable to the upcoming F4.1 or F4.2 versions?
3) If the PAF is planning to acquire 5th j31s won't our 4++ gen super sukhois and rafales be outmatched?
4) Considering India ordered a further 18 su30mkis directly from Russia on top of the 50 ordered earlier and 222 from Hal, that means India has ordered a grand total of 290 su30mkis till now from all sources. With 11 crashes, thus far, that would leave 279 in service, right sir?
5) How many squadrons of spyder Sams does iaf have in service currently and how many TELs per squadron?
6) How susceptible is the ganges and her tributaries to water interference by China in Tibet, like it is doing with brahmaputra?
Thanks
Prasun,
ReplyDelete1- recent interview by IAF chief where he mentions that he is not in favour tight integration od IAF in theater commands. Case of turf wars?
2- he also mentions that @100 MWF is being considered.. why is he opting for a more expensive rafales in greater nos than MWF? i do get that rafales have advanced tech but cost also is an imp factor and nos itself is also an asset .add that MWF is also expected to come with fairly advanced tech
3- recent announcement by the govt on banning select items from imports(the list is supposed to get longer with each passing year), while the idea seems good but how does one control price because it is sort of licence raj in a way where select manufacturers get to have near monopoly or can build cartels and loot
4- the so called changes to FDI rule will not be applicable to items marked for procurement under the "Strategic partner route" --which itself is a mess.. the recent deferment of decision on buying 111 NUH being the latest episode. the point is all major bulk procurements are planned to be done are put under this model.. why wud anyone share they tech in this scenarios.. for the other areas it simply does not make any economic sense to open factories here
5- on the deferment of NUH RFI.. are babus fiddling around to insert HAL(dpsu's in gen) in the last moment.. this keeps repeating itself again n again .. some other case in the recent past also had a DPSU name getting inserted suddenly out of the blue. Why would the pvt sector put millons if the policies keep flipping @random. what motivation will they have
6- dpsu's planning strikes on announcement of corporatization
7- why is it taking forever for us to develop MIRV, MARV tech
8- there was news of the US navy looking for replacement of bae hawk based naval trainers. would naval lca based sport get a long shot @it?
9- staying in bae hawks, recent decision by the Iaf to forgo buying 20 hawks for bae due to budget limits.. why didn't they build them before shutting the hawk line @hal.. or was it an afterthought to plan buying them ? my guess is they were for the aerobatics teams to replace kirans
10- US pulling out of WHO, knee jerk reaction? what are its implications esp with India now @its helm..
To UNKNOWN: All such hardware will not be movedx to Galwan, but to areas located 20km away from the standoff site.
ReplyDeleteTo AMIT BISWAS: Both Rudra & LCH will not have any weapons of US-origin simply because the fire-control system is totally different on the AH-64E attack helicopters & is therefore the FCS of the Rudra & LCH cannot be compatible with any US-origin guided or unguided weapon. Laser-guided 2.75-inch/70mm rockets are alsdo available from the very same Belgian company that has supplied unguided rockets.
As for India’s strategic miscalculations, there are 2 explanations: 1) India lacks the kind of ISR capability to constantly keep track of PLAGF & PLA-BDR movements beyond the LAC inside China. 2) The POTUS is right about NaMo being very upset because the only thing that can make the Indian PM upset is the China’s President Xi Jinping promised him something else during the Mamallapuram Informal Summit in October 2019, bit ended up doing something else in May 2020. And this is because when Xi was in Mamallapuram, preparations were well underway for the PLA-BDR to embark upon the forward movements, since any deployment of this nature takes at least 6 months to plan & prepare for.
To KIDDO: The IAF wants multi-role MRTTs, not dedicated aerial refuelling tankers like KC-130. The latter cannot do what the MRTT does, which is to carry fuel for refuelling plus enough internal cargo space for storing all kinds of ground-support equipment reqd to keep any MRCA squadron operational when operating from different air bases. Hence, MRTTs are reqd whenever any IAF MRCAS sqn redeploys from one air base to another within a matter of hours.
To MOHAN: That depends on what kind of concessions China wants. If they are all tall orders, then India will have no choice but to stay dug-in for another month till the weather makes it uninhabitable for both the IA & the PLA-BDR.
To SATYAKI: No, Aksai China is part of TAR. The videos are as FAKE as those posted a few weeks earlier claiming that the PLAGF was engaging in a military build-up along the Sino-North Korean border.
To SUSAN: Not the PAWS, but the MILDS from Germany’s Hensoldt. PAWS has not been integrated with any CH-47 airframe, whereas the MILDS has. Here is it explained:
https://www.hensoldt.net/fileadmin/HENSOLDT_2019/Products/Optronics/Airborne_Optronics/0631_17_MILDS_AN_AAR-60_datasheet_E_intranet.pdf
To ASD: 1) Too early to tell, because India was certainly caught by surprise by the suddenness of the PLA-BDR deployments. 2) India has been claiming Aksai Chin since 1954. Nothing new in it. But what should be the strategy to capture Aksai Chin is a totally different matter.
To PRAMODW: 1) No, the IAF variant of Rafale represents the latest variant available. 2) It is considerably better than even the F-4 version due to the IAF-specific enhancements. 3) China does not possess any 5th-gen MRCA & by its own admission the J-20 is a Gen-4 MRCA. So the FC-31 too won’t turn out to be a Gen-5 MRCA. 4) Yes. 5) It was detailed in the thread dealing with EX Gagan Shakti 2018. 6) The Ganges originates in India, not in TAR.
To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) What he means is that he is not in favour of mixing up integration with theaterisation, because the latter involves allocation of hardware & human resources of fixed-levels for each theatre command. 2) Because without Rafales the IAF will not possess any credible deep-penetration MRCA. 3) Not if there’s internal competition between various competing Indian OEMs. 4) As I have explained several times before, licenced-production of any piece of foreign-origin military hardware has never made any military/commercial sense, nor will it in future. 5) HAL must be given the chance to produce NUH variant of the Dhruv ALH with folding tail & folding main rotor-blades, just has HAL has already developed such a modified single-engined LUH & had shown it back at Aero India 2017. 7) Because they constitute the cutting-edge of R & D & product engineering—something India has neglected for several decades. Had India taken them seriously, then today India’s roads would have seen several more innovative design iterations of 1970s Premier Padmini or Ambassador cars. 8) The USN is on the lookout for a FBW-equipped AJT, and not a LIFT. 9) The IAF is desperate to save money for spending on the HTT-40 BTT as the IAF will in future have to spend more on maintaining two separate fleets of BTTs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/downing-street-plans-new-5g-club-of-democracies-bfnd5wj57
https://stratnewsglobal.com/india-china-military-balance-in-the-high-himalayas/
Nuclearisation of South Asia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3ikkXSVrHw
Ladakh's Roads: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTv_6mMpGw4
UJC Chief Syed Salahuddin Beaten Up in Islamabad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_C3lOoweaY
I believe best for india is to open a new front in a area where IA enjoy upper hand for counter tactics...bcoz till now india is only reacting to chinese action...btw hope NaMo now accepts he has been outsmarted by Xi jinping.
ReplyDeleteTo HARBHAN: All you questions require detailed contextualising. So here goes: Between 1962 & 1963, India lost a total of 39,000 sq km of land inclusive of both Aksai Chin & Trans-Karakoram Tract (incoluding the Shaksgam Valley). On top of that, since mid-1998 Beijing, contrary to its own promise made in late 1962, has been building roads in the 20km-depth no-man’s land that it had primised not to do so & consequently during summertime whenever Ladakhi herdsmen used to take their goats & sheep to pasturelands in these areas, the PLA-BDR patrols there at the same time would shoo them away. Since India between then & 2012 did not take retaliatory action, the PLA-BDR got emboldened to build more such roads to deny pastures for the Ladakhi villagers. This prevails till this day & the total quantum of pasturelands denied like this amounts to almost 700 sq km of land. Now, let’s fast-forward to the 1990s.
ReplyDeleteWhile everyone knows about the two agreements about the LAC in 1993 & 1996, very few know about the agreement struck on November 29, 1996. This was a military agreement & it can be read here:
https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/CN%20IN_961129_Agreement%20between%20China%20and%20India.pdf
If fully implemented, it would have produced several CBMs, including a precise definition of what constitutes the LAC & consequently, both countries would not have continued with their own perceptions of the LAC. But India kept on dragging its feet because had India agreed to implement all the artuicles of the agreement, then she would have been at a terrible disadvantage in terms of: 1) not being able to develop her military logistics infrastructure in Ladakh. 2) being unable to increase her military force-levels to cater for emergencies or future operations along the LoC. In other words, while China would have been pleased, India would have been unable to muster the kind of military superiority reqd for any offensive or defensive operations along the LoC in northern J & K. Consequently, China began to apply pressures along the LAC since mid-1999 in order to prod India into agreeing to the CBMs but succeeded only partially when India gave in & inked the BDCA in 2013. But since then China’s pressure on India has been unrelenting & acquired additional urgency after August 5, 2019 after which India officially stated that she stands committed to recovering back all of her territories that were lost, including Aksai Chin & PoK. Therefore, seen from China’s perspective, India’s growing military might inside J & K & Ladakh since 2013 poses an existential threat to China’s clinging on to Aksai Chin, because even if an Indian military buildup is meant for liberating PoK, it becomes a double-edged sword that can also be turned against China in Aksai Chin or Rutog or Demchok. This was partially explained 2 days ago on TV by Prof P Stobdan here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NaSIMX4qvE&list=PLP-nGFpz3fa_6Iy85fQMJVZdXioY8-YX7
For the defence of northeastern Ladakh, southeastern Himachal Pradesh & northeastern Uttarkhand, mechanised formations are reqd for the IA to fight defensive battles only. As I had explained before, the offensive capability does not exists now due to non-availability of adequate nos of medium-lift & heavylift helicopters. The same applies to Arunachal Pradesh, in case the PLA air-drops air-mobile/heli-borne infantry forces into the hinterland (highlands) of any of those Indian states.
Cont'd below...
But here's the bottom-line:
ReplyDelete1) India lacks the kind of ISR capability to constantly keep track of PLAGF & PLA-BDR movements beyond the LAC inside China. Clearly, the possession of just Bombardier 5000A ISR aircraft by the NTRO isn't enough to keep constant vigil over both the LAC & LoC. At least 6 at the very minimum is reqd.
2) The POTUS is right about NaMo being very upset because the only thing that can make the Indian PM upset is that China’s President Xi Jinping promised him something else during the Mamallapuram Informal Summit in October 2019, but ended up doing something else in May 2020. And this is because when Xi was in Mamallapuram, preparations were well underway for the PLA-BDR to embark upon the forward movements, since any deployment of this nature takes at least 6 months to plan & prepare for.
3) Beijing has this time been exceptionally careful to calibrate its climbing of the escalation ladder, unlike 2017 when China's Ministry of National Defence had entered the fray very early on & had begun making press statements. This time, only China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been authorised to make statements, and India has followed suit. Hence, the prospects of any kind of military kinetic operations being taken against one another are almost nill.
4) What needs to be watched the most is Russia's reaction to the developments, since Russia back in 2017 was instrumental in China's toning down & getting on the backfoot (since Russia was concerned about the credibility of the SCO as an institution at that time & did not want two SCO member-states to be at loggerheads against one another). This time too, Russia will play the prime role in calming down tensions & as we all know, China always defers to Russia on such strategic matters.
Prasunda
ReplyDeleteThe RM gives an alarming statement of the PLA coming in further than usual i.e. into India's perception of LAC which is saying No snake without fire. Obviously, situation serious.
https://youtu.be/yG9srl-IheQ
India's constraints prevent wholesale massacre at the LAC for PRC. More important messaging is that the ITBP & Indian Army joint teams, Soldiers comprise Indian, Nepali, Gorkha & Tibetan origin standing against PRC bullies. FREE TIBET or lose Ladakh/J&K in decade to PRC/Pak. Evict PRC now. Indians stands ready as Chinese PLA border guards being beaten up by Indian Army & ITBP Police forces at Pangong Lake (link below) & in general on the LAC show. The PRC needs to be evicted by force. The RMs statement above is alarming. But the link below show Indian anger & resolution as does Sonam Wangchuk's irritation
https://youtu.be/X78UWa_ZNSw
Can India give a beating to the PRC, make them lose face & publicize it to prepare the ground for Free Tibet, driving PRC away from Aksai Chin?
Sir can you explain what the MOD was thinking in ordering 150+ BMP 2 Sarath's from OFB Medak. Ordering an 80's vintage IFV that is a sitting duck in the modern battlefield and not even used by Russia anymore.
ReplyDeleteIssey toh behter Kestral kharid leytey, xp in the west has shown wheeled APC can still move properly in the varied terrains that it might face in Indian
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteYou earlier said that we can expect initial MIRV testing on our part in the next two years. Was it originally expected that MIRV testing would only be initiated between 2020-22 when the decision was taken by our govt. to develop MIRVs ? Or have there been delays that were unexpected?
Satyaki
https://theprint.in/defence/will-order-for-83-tejas-soon-hal-to-deliver-70-aircraft-by-2026-iaf-chief-bhadauria/432320/
ReplyDeleteSir is the plan to go for Mig 29 of Russian stock been postponed due to financial crunch as there is no mention of it also new order of Su 30MKI And subsequent its transformation into Super Sukhoi 30 MKI
Along with heavy lift capacity what ate the necessary hardwares and firepower that India require in near future to withstand any chinese aggression
https://theprint.in/opinion/why-chinese-president-xi-jinping-thinks-he-can-afford-to-take-risks-with-hong-kong-now/432664/
Has they thought earlier to use Covid 19 situation in the world to use their long cherished intention and rise as potential super power ..
How you see the chaos and uproar in USA after death of Floyd or it is more against Trump by Liber left organised agitation ..
Recent announcement by Trump to include Russia India korea in G7 countries ...Is New world order being inacted...
Hope as your assessment India keep holding position upto sept and recover in the nest summer .
Aren't you writing in the Force Magazine ..
Recently I have not seen you article in the two online version and prior print version.
Your article is the main reason why I subscribed Force ..
How to deal with these
ReplyDeletehttps://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/indias-rigged-stock-market-crash-benefits-china-chidambaram
To KAUSTAV: Yes, there have been transgressions at Panggong Tso Lake area. It is clear from this video that the skirmish took place somewhere between Finger 3 & Finger 4, where the road isn't black-topped. The PLA-BDR's 4 x 4 shown is the EQ-2010 LAMV. But as I had explained earlier, neither of the two countries wants war & hence this is all about messaging. And as I had also explained earlier, after mid-June that entire area in Galwan valley will not be fit for human habitation for anyone.
ReplyDeletePAF JF-17 takeoff from Skardu: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaRw315DU5c
Strategic Importance of Ladakh by P Stobdan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS_JE-6vuio
To SHUKANT CHATRATH: The IA ordered BMP-2s for the very same reason the PA continues to acquire 1960-era M-113s.
To SATYAKI: The R & D schedules were known back in the previous decade itself.
To BUDDHA: No such plans have been shelved. Additional MiG-29UPGs & Su-30MKIs will be procured. For offensive high-altitude plateau warfare, the IA requires 155mm/52-cal MGS, which the PLAGF started inducting into service in TAR back in late 2017. In addition, the IAF requires turbofan-powered HALE-UAVs. The assessments that I can upload in my blog are not the type that can be printed/published in any magazine. Hence, for the time-being I’m focussing more on this blog.
Prasun Da, thanks for the information, however, as you have replied to Buddha, a)can we expect that GOI may hasten the process of induction of 155 mm 52 cal MGS, turbo fan powered HALE UAV, Heavy lift helicopters plus ISR platforms for future High Altitude Plateau Warfare ? b) China as it seems like a sinking ship, and India can not go against the tide by allowing any concession regarding Tibbet, thus risk of irking the west, so we may expect that all discussion with PRC produce zero result in favour of China ? C) https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/trump-seeks-to-add-india-russia-to-g7-invitation-list/amp_videoshow/76119943.cms-- how do you view President of the USA's latest move to include ally Australia and South Korea in the G7 along with India and Russia thus further isolating China ? Kindly share your views on the above .
ReplyDeleteThanks in advance.
PrasunDa,
ReplyDeleteChinese have released this picture today, suggesting Indian soldiers were killed
https://twitter.com/dafengcao/status/1267013623542681606?s=20
India has released this video of a scuffle between IA and PLA
https://twitter.com/SengeHSering/status/1266809014240845824?s=20
Indian reporters like Manu Pubby said both the picture and the video is genuine
https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/1267037280826322944?s=20
Please provide your assessment.
Thank You
Hi Prasun,
ReplyDeleteThis tweeter handle says The chinese came deeper into Galwan than previously but were pushed back. There is however something serious that has happened WRT precious natural resources. I am not at liberty to disclose that & it is a serious breach of trust by the Chinese.
What is the "something serious" he is talking about?
https://twitter.com/Iyervval/status/1266779363187425286?s=20
Thank you and Best Regards
Raj
Prasun ji,
ReplyDelete1) If you see this video of sharang gun firing, you will notice extreme wobble. Why does the gun barrel seem to shake so tremendously ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQMKQv2Vhis
2) When are further trials of ATAGS expected now, due to corona ?
3) Any future orders for ULH M-777 expected, since kalyani seems to have a similar gun in the making ?
4) Which gun will be apt for MGS requirement ? ATAGS, after weight reduction, or perhaps one of the Kalyani products ?
5) In an interview with Nitin Gokhale, CDS Gen. Rawat said we have 1 arty brigade for each infantry division, and when the division is tasked we provide it more resources from other sectors. My question is what if we go to war & all sectors need their resources, then where will the army find these additional resources ? shouldn't the army, at least on division level, have all it needs to fulfill all its mission ?
6) Do you think it is feasible to increase the firepower of arty regiments from 3 batteries of 6 guns each, to say 4 batteries of 8 guns each ? This being done within the allocated human resources..I mean 18 guns per regiment is an old establishment, when command & control means were limited.
Thank you
Sir have you seen recent twits of the Force Editor .It seems he is satisfied at the progress of chinese incursion and advocating revoking the status of ladak prior august 5...Why he thinks India should be knee bent to chinese and end cooperation with USA.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the social media war of vedios and pictures....
https://youtu.be/SUXkkmx3r9E
ReplyDeleteWith these mindset how do we expect the generals to protect india border sanctity..single biggest bufoon general of IA
To SUMANTA NAG: A) It is no longer about expecting, but making all of them happen. There are no other options. B) China being a one-party totalitarian state is like a pressure-cooker without a safety valve & will therefore explode violently in out lifetime, rest assured. Whether this will happen by 2024 remains to be seen.
ReplyDeleteTo VIKRAM GUHA: A PLA-BDR patrolling party was stopped by Indian troops from entering India’s perceived side of LAC on March 18, which led to a clash. The clash between ITBP and PLA-BDR troops on May 5 has been confirmed by the IA. Another major face-off between ITBP and PLA-BDR troops occurred in the third week of May in the ‘Finger area’. The video-clip shows only injured ITBP troopers. No one leaves the dead-bodies uncovered. If anyone from China is suggesting that those are dead soldiers then he/she obviously has no idea about the Geneva Conventions & is therefore lying with malicious intent. And do read this:
https://public-assets.graphika.com/reports/Graphika_Report_Spamouflage_Returns.pdf
To RAJ: That’s nothing but an ill-informed rant from an inferiority complex-ridden sod. In reality, the PLA-BDR was pre-empted there by the ITBP-IA combine. Also, the fact that rich uranium deposits have been found in Ladakh has been known since 2007 & was reported here:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india/uranium-in-icy-ladakh/story-MvWC5QfG3ghMtFKzaIxCVP.html
And it was also explained in greater detail here by P Stobdan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS_JE-6vuio
India-China Global Dynamics https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgRhMNIPVu0
How China Covered up the Pandemic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H84xilIeHxc
1) Sir wrt to your previous posts of chinese deployments, I wonder what systems our air defense brigades are composed of?
ReplyDelete2) Saw mirages over ladakh in a video, and on google map some 15 EACH of single and twin engine jets are visible in Hotan.
Against this, what kind of stregth and what airbases can we activate in war time? Most of kashmiri airbases have mig21. What does Leh airbase has?
3) On a side note, a greater trend in USA-UK is to blame own govt handling of covid than China. Let's see if added riots will impact trump reelection and formal banding against China.
Bidens word on kashmir, his companions sounnd just bad news.
4) a minor observation - Do Pakis operate ifv at all? All i see is lightly armed m113 in large quantities. Whereas we operate armed bmp2k as IFV and 200 BTR as APC?
How does that effect their forces' offensive capabilities and deployments in mech inf regiments/armoured brigades?
Besides BMP with 7 troops is not that a weakness as 10 troops in m113.
Thanks
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteAir France is scrapping it's A380 fleet ( only 10 years old , 20 years minimum service life is left )
Can't we import those planes at scrap value or even free if we buy something and convert into refueler ? Israel has expertise on this. Airbus military also can help.
Even we can use them as freighter or troop carriers ?
Second suggestion : What about using Naval Tejas at Laddakh? Slightly longer runway than a aircraft carrier with skijump of same gradient but longer distance and wire arrested landing. Runway at Southern side of a hill blocking north but east and west open.
It'sjust coming into my mind. Consider me as a layman.
Best regards
https://youtu.be/wP4cMpr2n5Y
ReplyDeleteSir your thought's on this would be highly appreciated.
It sounds like India will have to make compromise which suits the Chinese.
Dear Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your views on this latest video by force magazine. Is india really so under prepared with issues such as lack of ammunitions, troop mobilization time etc...
Regards,
Ashish
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDeletePravin Sawhney: India Limits its Options
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wP4cMpr2n5Y
Pravin Sawhney: What Next in Ladakh ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMI43f8LfCQ
Two Questions
1. As per Pravin Sawhney, Indian Army is out of Stock for War Ammunition to fight Chinese army. Is it true.
Is Indian Army a Lion without Teeth.
2. Second he is telling that China is going to win a war in Cyber Space and bleeds Indian Nation. Is it true.
Reason he is telling all over India, Chinese hardware is used so they can hack the network. In that case what is Indian Response.
Please comment.
Thanks & Regards
Senthil Kumar
Photos suggesting Indian soldiers were killed spread by china in Social Media are fake.
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/NewsLineIFE/status/1267306046135173121
The Picture are of Indian Army soldiers who were injured seriously in an avalanche in #Sikkim on May 14/15
Prasunda,
ReplyDelete1) Looks like Praveen Sawhney is busy with psyops against our armed forces if he is claiming that there is no ammunition to fight the Chinese if they decide to precipitate a war.
2) Regarding MGS; Can't IA procure the Kalyani 155/39 MGS is large numbers ?
Satyaki
Dada you in this thread I think said that Tejas mk1A will be equipped with pylon mounted maws. So why can't we fit those in our Mig 29 Upg?
ReplyDeleteSir situation in America seems quite devastating...
ReplyDeleteLeft grp creating havoc there....How you see this situation evolving...
Is the riot being fueled by chinese to teach america lesson.
To AMIT BISWAS: Such statements have emanated from time to time after 1963 because India has only continued to GIVE & has NOT TAKEN anything back. It is a long history that I have tried to explain below:
ReplyDeleteGIVE-1: Construction of NH-219 through Aksai Chin started in 1951 and was completed in 1957. S.S. Khera, the Indian Cabinet Secretary in 1962, later wrote that information about road-building activities of the Chinese on the Indo-Tibetan border particularly in the Aksai Chin area had begun to come in by 1952 or earlier. In late 1952, the PLA’s 2 Cavalry Regiment, commanded by one Han Tse-min, had its HQ at Gartok (the main trade centre in Western Tibet). The Regiment had 800 camels and 150 men garrisoned at Rutok, in the vicinity of the Panggong Tso Lake. But it was stationed near Koyul in Ladakh’s Indus Valley. The 2 Cavalry’s task then was to build new roads in the area. One of them was a road from Hotan (in Xinjiang) to Rutok; the other one to Suget Karaul (Shahidulla) ending at Vanjilga (at the western end of the Aksai Chin). The first one was completed in July 1953. The alignment of this road was slightly different from today’s NH-219 Highway.
GIVE-2: India had been trading with Central Asia and more particularly Kashgar, Yarkand or Hotan for millennia. Just because ‘revolutionary changes’ had occurred in China, Delhi accepted the closure of the trade with Xinjiang as a fait accompli and also agreed to close its consulate at Kashgar in December 1953. The Tibetan traders who then used to visit Leh were from the Changthang area, an arid plateau region between Xinjiang and Tibet. These traders followed the Chushul (in Ladakh) route from Tibet to Leh. Border checkposts on this route were at Chushul and Koyul. And despite all this, India inked the Panchsheel Agreement on April 27, 1954. Up to then, the IA had an Infantry Battalion located at Yadong, with a detachment at Gyantse. India continued to have a Consul General in Lhasa and Indian Trade Agency trading posts at Yadong, Gyantse and Gartok upto 1962 (as per a trade agreement inked in Beijing on October 14, 1954) when they were wound up.
GIVE-3: On October 6, 1957, Chinese newspaper Kuang-ming Jih-pao reported from Hong Kong that the Xinjiang-Tibet Highway is 1,179km long, of which 915km are more than 4,000 metres above sea level, with 130km of it over 5,000 metres above sea level, with the highest point being 5,500 metres. In early 1958, five months after the ‘official’ opening of the Highway, Subimal Dutt, the then Indian Foreign Secretary, wrote to PM Nehru, suggesting that a reconnoitering party be sent “in the coming spring” to find out if the road had really been built on Indian territory. The next day, Nehru agreed for the reconnoitring party, but added: “I do not think it is desirable to have air reconnaissance. In fact, I do not see what good this can do us. Even a land reconnaissance will not perhaps be very helpful.” It was only in the fall of 1959 that a CRPF patrol comprising 70 constables attempted to cross over the Lanak La Pass to establish a border post in Aksai Chin. The party was confronted by the PLA, which had occupied the Pass. On October 20, 1959, three CRPF personnel were captured and detained by the PLA. The next day after a short confrontation, nine CRPF soldiers were killed and seven taken prisoner. By April 1959 China for the first time displayed maps showing Aksai Chin as being part of China. Only in August 1959 did the then Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru dropped the bombshell in the Lok Sabha: the ‘Tibet-Xinjiang highway’ had been built through Indian territory.”
Cont'd below...
GIVE-4: A resolution was tabled on the floor of the Lok Sabha on November 8, 1962. The then PM Jawaharlal Nehru tabled the resolution to retrieve Aksai Chin occupied by Chinese aggression during 1962 war. The resolution said, "This House notes with deep regret that, in spite of the uniform gestures of goodwill and friendship by India towards the People's Government of China on the basis of recognition of each other's independence, non-aggression and non-interference, and peaceful co-existence, China has betrayed this goodwill and friendship and the principles of Panchsheel which had been agreed to between the two countries and has committed aggression and initiated a massive invasion of India by her armed forces. This House places on record its high appreciation of the valiant struggle of man and officers of our armed forces while defending our frontiers and pays its respectful homage to the martyrs who have laid down their lives in defending the honour and integrity of our motherland. The flame of liberty and sacrifice has been kindled anew and a fresh dedication has taken place to the cause of India's freedom and integrity. This House gratefully acknowledges the sympathy and the moral and material support received from a large number of friendly countries in this grim hour of our struggle against aggression and invasion. With hope and faith, this House affirms the firm resolve of the Indian people to drive out the aggressor from the sacred soil of India, however long and hard the struggle may be". As many as 165 members of the Lower House participated in the discussion over resolution and every one advocated to flush China out of Aksai Chin. Finally, the resolution was passed in the House on 14-11-1962 after an emotional discussion.
ReplyDeleteGIVE-5: Unlike in NEFA, the PLA did not withdraw even an inch in Ladakh. It stayed put where it had reached, i.e. the 1960 Claim-Line. In Ladakh, China had claimed about 33,500 sq km of Indian territory and by the end of the War, the PLA had taken control of 37,244 sq km, except about 450 sq km of area which remain till today as a few disputed pockets.
GIVE-6: The key problem with the India-China LAC is that it is un-demarcated and undefined. It happens that we have our perception and China has their own. Every dynasty in China has drawn their own version of the maps & when it was time for India to insist on a common map of the LAC being drawn in both 1993, 1996 and 2013, India’s mandarins at the MEA did not insist on it.
GIVE-7: In 2000, both sides agreed that they would initiate a process for the clarification and determination of the LAC in all sectors of the boundary; a first meeting took place in March 2000, where maps of the middle sector were exchanged. On June 17, 2002, both sides met again and maps of the Western sector were seen by both sides for about 20 minutes, during the meeting itself the maps were withdrawn since it was felt that they represented maximalist positions for both sides.
To MANISH: 1) That’s because of the way the gun-cradle was designed by the OEM. 2) All trials are over. Now product improvement is underway to reduce the total weight of the ATAGS from the present 18 tonnes to somewhere nearer to 15 tonnes by using HNS. 3) Not for now. Kalyani’s 4 x 4 MGS with 155mm/39-cal barrel is preferred by the IA for deployments in the North East. 4) The Dhanush-52 MGS for the plains & highlands & Kalyani’s MGS for operating over mountainous terrain. 5) How can all sectors require artillery fire-support when under a nuclear overhang only limited high-intensity conventional war is possible? Long gone are the days of total conventional warfare. 6) What for, when a single modern 155mm howitzer can deliver MRSI-type fire-assaults.
ReplyDeleteTo VSJ: 1) Akash-1 & SpyDer-SR. 2) Leh has Su-30MKis as well. Also, read this:
https://stratnewsglobal.com/india-china-military-balance-in-the-high-himalayas/
3) The riots are happening more due to the prevailing unemployment-levels than anything else. 4) They have modified their M-113 tracked APCs into ICVs by arming them with TOW & Red Arrow-8 ATGM launchers & RBS-70 SHORADS. But the M-113s are built of aluminium & not steel & hence can easily catch fire even due to a electric short-circuit.
To PARTHASARATHI: How much money will it cost to re-engineer the A380 airframe & then have it certified? That figure alone will rule out any such possibility. And if a ski-jump is to be installed at the runway at Leh, then how will all other aircraft not requiring ski-jumps will be able to operate? Don’t you think a ski-jump installation in the existing runway pose a physical obstacle to all such other aircraft?
To PANIC, ASHISH, SENTHIL KUMAR & SATYAKI: 1) If China initiates any kind of military kinetic operations against India, that will be the end of the Indian market for various types of Made-in-China goods & services that presently fetches China US$68 billion each year. Will China be stupid enough then to militarily take on India? The answer is a firm NO. 2) India has enough war wastage reserve stocks for fighting a high-intensity war for 14 days on 2 concurrent fronts & for fighting for 28 days on a single front. Hence, ammo shortages are a non-issue. 3) Just because India uses several types of Made-in-China electronics products, it does not automatically translate into all of them being hacked into or being remotely manipulated. This is a widespread misconception propagated by those who are ICT-illiterate. In the real world, all such hardware, before being service-inducted, are checked for any embedded malware & even the best malware cannot stay hidden. I had already explained above what steps India has taken to protect herself against debilitating cyber-attacks on May 28, 2020 at 6:33AM. Kindly read that explanation & you will realise that those being described as ‘Giants’ are in fact ‘Dwarfs’ standing on wooden stilts.
To SATYAKI: There’s no one-size-fits-all solution. Hence, for the plains & highlands, the Dhanush-52 MGS is the best option while for mountainous terrain, the MGS from Kalyani Group will be ideal.
To BUDDHA: LoLz! Nothing of that sort is possible in the real world, since China has already made it clear that it feels ‘threatened’ by the following (because it wants to play the victim card rather than be seen as the aggressor):
ReplyDelete1) The aggressive improvements along the LAC of India’s road & rail transportation infrastructure, especially these:
Dharchula Lipulekh Road https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTG0SwJSdCg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YecrZIThSbk
DSDBO Road https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiABI_NIoWI
Trans-Arunachal Highway https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5FxAZXf9go
Zoji La Tunnel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4hlPlRudGA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV-EyeWIWvs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6DUs-l8_c8
Rohtang Tunnel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgIY-cWXKSc
Qazigund-Banihal Tunnel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_3IwiQlFhk
Chamba Tunnel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROsbTkg5kSg
Chenani Nashri Tunnel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-WXlXkNE8M
Chardham Mahamarg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl-ZPcOOiiI
Bilaspur-Manali-Leh Railway https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xe_M9euFdok
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3s6k79mUu4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU9WciIsTB8
2) Union Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah’s statement regarding Aksai Chin on August 6, 2019:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfYI4dnE-Fk
3) The Staging by India last September of EX Changthang Prahar under the Leh-based XIV Corps. In case folks don’t know what the term Changthang means, it is an arid plateau region between Xinjiang and TAR in Aksai China & can be seen here:
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-43XwgiKytws/WGOucAZDf0I/AAAAAAAAP1o/niGdcqW1A5cQDIJKnPjobVdVgTCc2jdKgCLcB/s1600/Reserve.jpg
Therefore, viewed through China’s eyes, it is indeed a very scary scenario for Beijing, especially since Beijing lacks the kind of military hardware reqd for fighting high-altitude plateau wars. And finally, China back in mid-2017 & again now is mistakenly ASSUMING that while China fights for honour, India fights for interests (i.e. China still thinks of India’s armed forces as being of early 20th century vintage when the colonial IA was made up of paid mercenaries like the Gorkhas & Sikhs) & hence China till today assumes that India’s armed forces cannot enjoy high morale or high levels of patriotism. Here’s what a PLA Senior Colonel had said about India’s armed forces back in 2017:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSr0w6hD2Bg
And here are some of the viral videos in social media:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OCR1ZPcye8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdUaBbT0M_U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sc0bTtNAmak
And here’s what happened at Galwan (the PLA-BDR contingent was intercepted by the IA/ITBP combine):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNzrhzr1knA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnkQ57H8HvY
This indeed is a very sad development:
ReplyDeleteP Stobdan Tenders Apology to Dalai Lama: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_agQX5gY1c
He was actually right to question the silence of both the Dalai lama & the Dharmashala-based Central Tibetan Administration-in-Exile (CTA) concerning Ladakh's status. After all, since China has since 2009 been stating that ot has only a 2,000km-long LAC with India that excludes Ladakh, the CTA should have by now issued a statement stating that Ladakh was, is & will be a part of India & was never a part of either Tibet or China. Instead, the CTA is going ga ga over its links with Hongkong, Taiwan etc etc as seen in its daily news bulletins:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AE-7WaNqw6s
It must be noted that the Ladakhis are of the same ethnic stock as the original inhabitants of Bhutan & Sikkim, and as such are distinctly different from the Tibetans who hail from Mongolia.
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteVMT.
1) If the Kalyani 4x4 MGS is preferred by IA for mountains and the Dhanush 52 is preferred for high altitude plateaus, why arent there orders for these systems? Are'nt they already tested ?
2) When will the above systems begin induction in numbers?
3) Are'nt MBRLs and NLOS-BSMs better suited for high altitude plateau warfare than tube artillery ? Why do'nt we focus on those?
Satyaki
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33797/watch-a-jas-39-gripen-fighter-fire-a-new-ground-attack-version-of-the-sidewinder-missile
ReplyDeleteHow is this possible.??
Prasun,
ReplyDeleteHow long do you think this giving will continue?One feels sad for the brave soldiers who are defending their motherland when they are let down at each and every stage by various levels of our government led by people sitting in air conditioned offices who hardly understand what is happening on the ground and who are totally ill qualified to lead the bravest of the brave?
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDeleteOut of curiosity I am asking you this question. Till date whenever I have come across any civilian helicopters, they make too much noise. Then how troops are dropped without the knowledge of advesary. How can't the enemy troops know about the coming of helicopters despite of huge sound?
@prasun da
ReplyDelete1. it might be coincidence that last week i was 1st to talk about Panchen Lama, and the way i see it he might have been eliminated in 1990s itself
2. i think iaf is doing all it can to avoid buying HTT40
3. my calculation says Jaguar re-engine may well go ahead taking its service to 2040 atleast
4. why cant the cheetah/chetak/cheetal/chetan be modified into unmanned aerial vehicle
5. praveen sawhaney of Force doesnt seem very optimistic about current galwan valley standoff, the wa he says by my calculation think india is all set to lose this area
6. Tejas mk1 SP jets are being inducted, what happened to the 8 LSPs and 8 PVs
7. do you really think USA can help India bring down China bcoz it has nothing to go into direct conflict with Chins except Taiwan whereas India has too many issues with China
8. oh btw it is Qatar hat is all set to buy submarines from France and not UAE
Thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
ReplyDeleteHI PRASUN
i assume all the m777 guns gave been transfered to their bases near the standoff area which they were precisley ment to defend.?
now could it be that after the doklam issue china knows that we will never relent not with standing threarts by the good colonel who say we will loose like 1962. so hiw is there a chance of a massive arty barrage to clear indian troops to save face this time ?. while staying in saftley inside their territory. ?
hypothotecaly speaking if there is war what would the chinese do,send troops to cross over, ? arty barage? with missile strikes?, airforce ?
I think the more indian and chines troops jostle with each other the more claer it will become to the chines thatthe indian are no pushove contrary to the psychological brain wash thathye have imbibed. Again the more confident will indian troops becom ein realising teh chinks are not 9 ft tall?
Hi Prasun,
ReplyDeleteWould like to know your views on the following
https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/india/story/peaceful-resolution-tibet-solution-to-india-china-border-dispute-tibetan-govt-in-exile-1684522-2020-06-02
Modi talked to Trump today and he posted a couple of tweets a few minutes ago "Had a warm and productive conversation with my friend President @realdonaldtrump.We discussed his plans for the US presidency of G-7,the Covid-19 pandemic,and many other issues" and "The richness and depth of India-US consultations will remain an important pillar of the post-COVID global architecture".The 2nd sentence is especially interesting.This plus America's proposal to include India in a "D-10".Encouraging signs that India and US are moving closer to each other.Modi and the PM of Australia(QUAD member)are going to hold a virtual summit on Thursday and there is a possibility that a defence logistics agreement might be signed as well.I have two questions:
ReplyDelete1)Your opinion about the tweets?
2)India and the US are allies but maybe not full fledged allies yet.Would the signing of the 3rd foundational agreement(BECA) later this year make us full fledged allies in the eyes of the US(on par with Japan South Korea and Taiwan)?Or will we still be considered a notch below those 3 countries because we don't have tan agreement in which they will come to our aid if another country attacks?
Sir,
ReplyDelete1) why did the PLA withdraw to the Macmohan Line after their victory in 1962 war
2) why India did not use the IAF in 1962
3, Did the PLA reach the outskirts of tezpur airbase in 1962
Joseph Jiju Alex
Prasun ji, Thank you for answering my previous question. There is an anomaly I encountered
ReplyDelete1) How many BM-21 Grad systems does the IA hold? At various places I read 5 or 22 regiments with 150+ launchers. With these few launchers 22 regiments is not really possible. Could you please clarify ?
2) In 2015 & 2016, in 3 instances clearance was provided for procuring 10 pinaka 1 regiments. Have any actual orders be placed ?
3) Will it not be prudent to order more k-9 vajra's, to increase the strike corps/IBG firepower as well as keep the assembly line functioning.
4) Will there be a wheeled SP howitzer induction, a requirement was 180 was made known ? If yes, which gun will be apt ? or perhaps tracked & wheeled SP gun requirement could be combined & a cumulative 300-400 guns could be ordered, i.e k-9.
5) Has any order been placed for nirbhay LACM ?
6) Is the mountain MGS requirement distinct from the 814 MGS requirement ? If yes how many units of mountain MGS are required ?
7) Will the ATAGS not require further trials after weight reduction ? And, when can we expect orders for the initial 150 units ?
Thank you
I totally agree with you that P.stobdan has said nothing wrong. Infact we must support him and ask the same question. This episode is showing again that people keep religion and their preacher above their country and its strategic defense. Its same kind of foolishness shown by budhist ppl that they have shown till now against china. Isnt it time for Dalai lama to break silence? When will they realise the reality of moderntimes? And our youth is deeply sleeping in tik tok land..
ReplyDeleteI wont say God can save us if this continues because he wont. Just hoping that our strategic experts are heard and followed. Or will try my best to change it..
Sir ji,
ReplyDeleteGreat discussion clears lot of things.Col. S Dinny (retd), who has served as the commanding officer of Pangong Tso battalion explains things clearly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b30_ftMpwLI
It burst lot of lies being peddled and vindicates what you have been saying.
-Saurabh
Sir,
ReplyDeleteIs there any possibility of purchase of MQ 4C triton for our P8I if yes how long will it take and how much it will helpful for our navy
JB
Prasun sir,
ReplyDelete1) You said why Dalai Lama and Tibet govt in exile are silent. Today the PM of Tibetan govt in exile said on aajtak that Ladakh, Arunachal and Sikkim are part of India. What will this statement achieve?
2) Will the deal for 814 MGS be divided between Dhanush mounted and Kalyani 4×4 MGS?
3) Will the delivery of Barak 8 and it's ER version to IA and IAF be delayed because of COVID?
4) What is the procedure to kick China out of UNSC permanent member? Will Russia allow that to happen?
5) How will India benefit if it becomes a member of an expanded G7?
6) Will much needed hardware like Raytheon ISTAR and additional Chinook and C-130s be ordered now after tension with China?
7) Are we ordering any additional K-9 Vajras?
8) Between Hybrid Biho and Pantasir system which is more ideal for India?
9) Why are we buying Israeli ATHOS when ATAGS is just around the corner?
10) The only way we can get back Aksai Chin is if the CPC rule collapses leading to total anarchy and chaos in the rank and file of PLA. The fall of Communist China would ae historic as the fall of USSR. Do you agree?
To SATYAKI: 1) MGS is for mountainous terrain/high-altitude plateaux while Dhanush-52 is for plains & highlands. Only 1 prototype of each type has been made & both were shown at DEFEXPO-2020. At least 6 of each are reqd for firing trials. 2) They should. 3) MBRLs are useful only in flat terrain like high-altitude plateaux while NLOS-BSMs are useful against point-targets in top-attack mode.
ReplyDeleteTo AMIT BISWAS: As explained there, a change of seeker makes it very much possible.
To THEINDIAN: As I had explained back in May 2013, the ORIGINAL SIN was committed by India in 1950 when this map was published:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4I4DAdFdylc/UYRI1ThSVSI/AAAAAAAAEwE/CwSx8iMnXJ4/s1600/Govt+of+India's+1950+Map.jpg
This was followed by this map in 1954:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5Yb6V4UyiPc/UYRI7OPDnZI/AAAAAAAAEwM/fAFs1OlTVwY/s1600/Govt+of+India's+1954+Map.jpg
But it was not until 1959 that India took the first steps toward launching patrols into Aksai Chin. Now, what’s the use of publishing maps showing IBs when no one is there to guard them or police them or manage them of fence them? This then was the perfect fait accompli that was handed over to China, which consequently started creeping westwards in 1956, then 1959, then 1960 & finally 1962, i.e. the GoI keep on conceding because it found it almost unjustifiable to legalise the IB that was drawn up in 1954. The second biggest mistake was in 1993 to accept the concept/perception of LAC without defining it on either a map or on the ground. Consequently, today what counts is one’s own perception of the LAC & technically, no one can state today (either India or China) as to where exactly will the LAC reach its outermost limit. The third biggest mistake was for India not to challenge China’s assertion in 2009 that it does not share a frontier or LAC with Ladakh, i.e. as far as China is concerned, Ladakh does not even exist as a part of India & consequently China made the LAC irrelevant back in 2009. So, if according to China the LAC does not even exist, then why is India always talking about the LAC? Back in 2009 itself India should have insisted that China revert back to the status quo on ther LAC as of 2009 & should also have made the CTC-in-Exile issue a statement that Ladakh had always been a part of India. Since none of these was done, India continues to get pushed farther & farther westwards. And no one from either the Indian MEA or MoD bothers to explain such hard truths to the citizens of India. As a result, we have nonsensical debates like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maHCZZPLBNA&t=24s
Nor is India able to reach a consensus on how to achieve self-reliance in the production of consumer electronics goods, as explained in these debates:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nm08g518Ek&t=135s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igHEp2YEN2U&t=16s
To MANISH: 1) Both are right because the MBRLs are with COMPOSITE ROCKET ARTILLERY REGIMENTS, meaning such Regiments have BM-21 Grads, Pinaka-1s & Smerch-M, just like the Missile Groups have both BrahMos-1 & even Prithvi SS-150s. 2) Have already explained all that several times before in threads dealing with MBRLs. 3) Depends on how many MGS the IA wants to procure. 4) It is now MGS, period. More than 1,200 of them are reqd, of which 814 will be for the plains & highlands. 5) No. 6) Yes. 7) Yes it will.
ReplyDeleteTo SAURABH: VMT. Now let me explain what happened at Naku La:
The boundary with Tibet (now China) in northern Sikkim can be roughly divided in two parts--the eastern part is delineated by 23 cairns that were built in 1905 by Claude White, the British political officer in Sikkim; there is no real difference of perception between India and China in this sector. The second part, the western part of Sikkim’s northern border, has remained peaceful as it follows the watershed and is of extremely difficult access (at least for India). Naku La and Muguthang, a few kilometers south of the pass, are between the western and eastern parts of the boundary. It is here that Beijing picked a fight. China has claimed that a couple of kilometres south of Naku La, the Tibetans had built a wall to protect their pastures in the 19th century—a process often used in the Himalayan region. The wall was five feet high and some 800 metres in length. Now China is claiming that the wall is the customary border, neglecting the watershed principle used elsewhere. The problem for India is that access to these places is extremely difficult. Muguthang for example is still not connected by road. For several years, China has tried to “realign” the border; but its claims clearly violate the 1890 treaty, which it swears by, and are based on the watershed principle. However, when Beijing wants to put pressure on India, the pass is a convenient acupuncture point and if India gives up, more puncture points will be activated in Ladakh, Barahoti (Uttarakhand) and Asaphila (Arunachal Pradesh). While the terrain is extremely hostile on the Indian side, particularly in the western part of Sikkim, on the Tibetan side, Kampa Dzong County is on a flat plateau, where heavy PLAGF mechanised foerces deployment has taking place.
To UNKNOWN/JB: The Triton HALE-UAV is far too big for the IN, which instead prefers the Sea Avenger MALE-UAV.
To VARUN: 1) It will have a very good effect since colonial India’s borders were never negotiated with China, but with the Kingdom of Tibet. 2) No, the two are separate reqmts. For high-altitude mountain warfare, some 400 lightweight MGS are needed while for the plains & highlands, 814 are reqd. 3) No. 4) Best way will be for China to be broken up into 3 parts as I have explained above. 5) It will have a greater share of the world’s industrial supply-chains. 6) The reqmts had been spelt out back in 2011 itself. 7) No. 8) The Pantsyr is far more advanced & is suitable for both the IA & IAF. 9) No one is buying the ATHOS. 10) Yes.
o ASD: Elementary: conduct proper recce from the air to identify hostile ground concentrations & then make the helicopters land beyond the horizon of such concentrations.
ReplyDeleteTo JOYDEEP GHOSJ: 4) Elementary: the direct operating costs of such remotely-operated helicopters is far more than those of MALE-UAVs. 5) Wait for another 3 days for the announcement of a “mutual, proportionate, measured & calculated” re-induction of the deployed forces by both sides. 6) They are used as flying prototypes to concurrently test & validate the periodic flight-control/weapons management software updates that are undertaken for both the Mk.1 & the Mk.1A. 7) The Communist regime will be brought down by China’s own citizens & those of Hongkong SAR. And China could well be split intyo 3 parts, with one part becoming independent Tobet, the other a communist regime along the Sino-Russia/Sino-North Korea border to the north, and another made up of coastal & central China, Taiwan, Hongkong & Macau.
To RAD: No, the M-777s are reqd for Sikkim & AP. The time for hostilities has long gone for both sides since they are now dug in facing one abother & thus both have lost the element of surprise. Now, within 5 days days a “mutual, proportionate, measured & calculated” de-induction of the deployed forces by both sides will commence in 3 sectors. Because if they don’t, then by September Mother Nature will intervene & the entire areas of standoff will be uninhabitable.
To RAGHU & ARUN & VINEET KUMSR: Looks like Prof P Stobdan finally succeeded in waking the CTA-in-Exile out of its deep slumber. Here’s another one from the CTA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG2w3pWyYzQ
And another on the Galwan Valley standoff:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH5gdRcM3Gc
And finally, Russia has entered the fray:
https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/1267776375236116482
Now expect matters to advance very quickly & within 5 days days a “mutual, proportionate, measured & calculated” de-induction of the deployed forces by both sides will commence in 3 sectors.
To UNKNOWN: Because it was winter-time & therefore it was impossible for the PLA to maintain its supply-lines through the frozen mountain valleys of AP & hence the PLA withdrew, rather than starve to death inside NEFA.
Thanks for previous replies sir.
ReplyDeleteYou mentioned in the gagan shakti 2018 post that India had begun upgrade of Osa Sam systems.
1) How many squadrons of Osa does India possess? Are they all to be upgraded?
2) How many TELAR vehicles per Osa Squadron?
3) How many tunguska units do we possess? Are they deployed with army or AF?
4) Based on the info that you have shared, I have arrived at a rough number for combat aircraft with Indian military.
Su 30mki - 279 (14 squadrons)
Mig 29 - 48 (3 squadrons)
Mirage 2000 - 48 (3 squadrons)
Tejas - 20 (1 squadron)
Jaguar - ~120 (6 squadrons)
Mig 21 bison - ~110 (4 squadrons)
Mig 29k - 42 (2 squadrons)
Are these numbers accurate sir?
5) How many Strela Sam squadrons does the IAF and IA possess?
6) Has the CBU 105 sensor fused weapon already been deployed with the jaguar or is only planned for the future? Is only the Darin 3 version compatible with it or can the current Darin 2 also deploy it?
Thanks
How many years does one take to make supersonic drop tanks for Tejas?? ..I mean any updates about triple ejector rack nd supersonic drop tanks
ReplyDeleteHi Prasun,
ReplyDeleteI have been following your last 3 threads keenly. Great details as usual. Thank you for your insightful and educational comments.
Really glad I follow your blog regularly.
Today's comments of yours are a little troubling, the Chinese are negating 1890 watershed on one hand and want to enforce it on India on the other. They are regularly pushing westwards in Ladakh.
In both cases its the failure of GOI, whether it's previous or current.
I hope someone in GOI is reading your analysis, though I doubt anything can be done now at this hour this late.
What can the Modi Government do now? What are its options?
Also, Chinese never negotiate from a weak position, so what did GOI commit to them that they are now withdrawing. I doubt we are getting a better deal while diffusing this embarrassing situation.
Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri
If disintegration of China takes place in future and if it will be divided into three countries with northern part still be controlled by CCP then which part will aquire the nuclear weapons of present day unified China and I think in such case animosity and border disputes will still be there between three parts and also ideological differences. In such a scenario what will be the future of northern communist part with Beijing as its capital,CCP and Xi jinping himself will he be executed or still rule the northern part. What will be the future of PLA, will it be divided among successor states or completely dissolved.
ReplyDeletePrasun da,we rely on your credibility. So very disturbed by Ajay Shukla's claim that the Chinese have in dug in permanently in the Galwan valley about 3 to 5 km inside Indian claim line and can cut the DSDBO road ,like it happened in Kargil.In this eventuality DBDO and Sub Sector North will be cut off.He even hints that situation is so serious that Northern Command Chief will be replaced. Please clarify
ReplyDeletehttps://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200501-syria-says-russian-missile-defence-system-ineffective/
ReplyDeleteDear Prasun,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your reply.
Turkish Drone Strike Destroys Syrian Army’s Pantsir-S1 Air Defense System
https://www.defenseworld.net/news/26433/Turkish_Drone_Strike_Destroys_Syrian_Army___s_Pantsir_S1_Air_Defense_System#.Xtdj5TozaM8
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/libyan-army-hits-hafter-forces-air-defense-systems/1848220
https://www.quora.com/How-was-Turkey-able-to-destroy-3-Russian-made-Pantsir-S1-air-defense-systems-with-their-drones
https://sputniknews.com/world/202003101078530540-russian-military-dismisses-turkish-reports-of-destruction-of-8-syrian-pantsir-systems/
Now I seriously start doubting Russian Weapons. How cum Turkey drones able to destroy Pantsir-S1 Air Defense System. One thing is clear, Turkey is not an easy target the way West is thinking.
Very Soon Turkey + Pak + China + Malaysia form new alliance which is not good for India.
Question is
1. Why India not able to develop a decent drone. What is stopping them.
2. China is a market leader in drones. Can we expect Indian army to going to face Chinese drones in LAC.
Please comment.
Thanks & Regards
Senthil Kumar
Dear Prasun, this is my first post in your blog though I have been an avid follower for the last 8 plus years. My question follows the absolute quiet that we see in the AP sector for the last many years. Do you think China wants to lull us into a false sense of security only to surprise us in the Tawang Sector? Capturing Tawang would be propaganda coup for them, like nothing else. RajivB
ReplyDelete@prasun da
ReplyDelete1. what is the truth now China is again in Daulat Beg Oldie?
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2020/06/rajnath-admits-sizeable-intrusion-by.html
2.are you saying poor uighurs will still remain under Chinese thumb?
3. an ndtv report by vishnu som as well as force magazine's praveen sawhaney have said that china has brought in huge number of ground troops as back up as well as air force near LAC, how tru is that
4. praveen sawhaney says Northern Army commander Yogesh Joshi may well face music foer failure to check China PLA, what do you opine?
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
To PRAMODW: The IAF had procured eight squadrons of 9K33 OSA-AK SHORADS, Each Sqn comprises threre Battery & each Battery comprises four 9A33B TELAR vehicles. The IA had procured four Regiments each of OSA-AK & Strella-10M SHORADS. The IA has only 12 2S6 Tunguskas. The IAF possesses about 600 Igla-1s & the IA a similar number while the IN possesses about 100 Igla-S. CBU-105 was integrated with Jaguar IS back in 2011.
ReplyDeleteTo AMIT BISWAS: The supersonic drop-tanks were shown at Aero India 2019 & are now in series-production. Only dual-ejector racks are being developed for both air-to-ground ordnance & SRAAMs. The quad-rack is being developed for the SAAW. And finally, we have a view of the B.777-300 VVIP transportation aircraft of the IAF:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EZju-9VU4AAG5Cp?format=jpg&name=medium
http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2015/12/vvip-b777-300ers-for-iaf.html
Neglected Itchu Village in Kargil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXpGr_74WnQ
Panggong Tso Lake Standoffs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5Gn_V2Cnk0
Col Sonam Wangchuk’s Message: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fotEotxFdg
To ROHIT GILL: It will be just like what happened in the former USSR, in which only Russia got possession of nuclear WMDs while Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan etc etc all had to dismantle & destroy their nuclear WMD arsenals.
To MANAS: LoLz! The ‘desi Maha Bandalbaaz’ apparently is of the view that to dominate & interdict a highway, one has to have physical visibility of the highway. In reality, that was the situation only in 1999 because the PA did not possess UAVs then, whereas today both China & India possess the kind of UAVs that can supply over-the-horizon imagery of ground-based infrastructure & hence forward field observation for directing field artillery fire-support is nowadays done by UAVs & no longer with scouts using bonoculors. Hence, very early on, I had stated that the latest PLA-BDR theatrics have nothing to do with India’s road construction activities.
To AMIT BISWAS & SENTHIL KUMAR: Every weapon system has strengths & weaknesses & hence the optimum force-mix can only be devised by human beings. While the Pantsyr has to date shot down several Spice family of standoff PGMs that just glide to their targets on a steady course & can therefore be continuously be tracked, drones can change their flight-profiles with ease & can duck & pop-up with ease, which in turn increase the time taken for producing a credible fire-control solution.
To RB: No, there have been regular transgressions in AP but over there since the terrain is thickly forested & mountainous, the PLA-BDR cannot bring along mechanised/armoured assets & nor is the terrain suitable for pitching tents for extended durations for fear of contacting Malaria, Typhoid, Dyssentry etc etc. In other words, Mother Nature is the greatest inhibiting factor & does not allow for extended duration standoffs. And over there, the IA has a dense network of hilltop-mounted Ops & helipads for ensuring credible surveillance of the LAC.
To SRINAVASA NANDURI: VMT. All I can say is that it was no coincidence that I began uploading stuff on high-altitude plateau warfare since March 20 this year:
ReplyDeletehttps://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/03/
Also, what is extremely interesting is that the IA’s XIV Corps Commander will meet the Commander of China’s Xinjiang Military District (XMD) on June 6 (and not the Chief of the Tibet Military District, or TMD) at the Chushul-based Border Management Hut (BMH) for negotiations. Is it because the TMD comprises troops & military hardware that is essentially defensive in nature, while those of XMD are the real offensive forces that have been assigned the task of carrying out offensive ground campaigns against Ladakh? If yes, then it can be safely deduced that in times of war, the XMD will be given total charge of both the NH-216 & NH-219 highways both above & around Ladakh and of the Ladakh theatre of operations, with the TMD actng as XMD’s subordinate & being made responsible for only the LAC’s central & eastern sectors as far as command-n-control goes. This will also place the GOC of XIV Corps at a psychological disadvantage because he is dual-tasked to look after both the LoC in northern Ladakh as well as the LAC from northeastern Ladakh till the Ladakh-Himachal Pradesh inter-state border. Consequently, of utmost importance now is to permanently relocate the XVII Corps HQ to Himachal Pradesh under the overall command of GOC-in-C Northern Command, so that the XIV Commander can be relieved of his dual-raskings.
As for China’s interpretations of both the IB & LAC, they have been changing from 1956 onwards & hence when it comes to a constant formula, China is always unable to produce any credible maps or treaties. India’s position on the other hand has been constant since 1954 when she produced two boundary lines (i.e. the Johnson Line in Ladakh & the McMahon Line in Arunachal Pradesh) based on a unitary formula. This is most often not understood by laymen & especially the ‘desi patrakaars’ like this who can’t differentiate one from another:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLNnaN74pFc&t=105s
In this video, the ‘desi patrakaar’ is explaining the McMahon Line & not the LAC or even the differing perceptions of the LAC. This is because for military maps denoting one’s LAC perception, the maps are drawn as per ground surveys that have specific landmarks, like mountain spurs, ridges, hilltops etc etc. Consequently, all talk about a thick pen being used to draw lines denoting frontiers that represent an ambivalence of about 6km in-depth is sheer nonsense. The pen was used only for drawing the maps showing the McMahon Line & the Tibet-Sikkim IB, and not any map showing perceived LAC patrolling limits.
IAF Constructing Runway At Highway In South Kashmir (which was not reported by the national TV channels yesterday:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aW_6Owt6Wo
The location is at Bijbehara, Anantnag: 33 46 42.06 N, 75 5 36.12 E
And an excellent piece of investigative journalism:
https://apnews.com/3c061794970661042b18d5aeaaed9fae
As usual, you are unmatched and unique in the field of knowledge, information, and analysis. Now one begs the question is what India gave(/will give shortly) this time as it is India who is/was giving always not taking anything in the negotiations with PRC.
ReplyDeletePrasunda,
ReplyDeleteAre forces from the Xinjiang Military District, including A-100 MBRLs currently deployed against Ladakh ? If so, do we have matching deployments on our side?
Satyaki
To JOYDEEP GHOSH, DASHU & SATYAKI: This is the best-ever assessment of what really is the ground situation now. All the other ‘desi patrakaars’ have been speculating & misinforming till to date. Wonder if they will change their tune this evening or tonight:
ReplyDeletehttps://theprint.in/opinion/indias-fingers-have-come-under-chinese-boots-denial-wont-help-us/435145/
Or will one to wait for another 20 years for the truth to emerge. As it is, it was revealed only last month that the PLA built a road from Finger-8 till Finger-4 when OP Vijay was underway in 1999 & there was no mention of this in the Kargil Committee Report that came out in the year 2000, nor was it admitted as being an intelligence failure (i.e. it was brushed under the carpet).
Hi Prasun,
DeleteSo we lost more land to China without even putting up a fight?
What is the Modi Government going to do. Give in.
What is your prediction?
Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri
Prasun Da, as usual your write up is highly accurate and eye opener for us all.
ReplyDeleteBTW , I request your views on the following articles from these links: a. https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.tribuneindia.com/news/j-k/pla-troops-hold-high-altitude-exercises-in-tibet-94108. As well as https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.tribuneindia.com/news/j-k/china-preparing-for-infiltration-behind-enemy-lines-amidst%25C2%25A0standoff-in-ladakh-93904
Is it seem that PRC is apprensive of a Possible IA thrust in the Chang thang Area of the Akshai Chin region in future, following, the HM Amit Shah's Speech in the Parliament after abrogation of Aricle 370 regarding getting back of Akshai Chin and POK, and post Excercise Chang Thang Prahar, 2019, since PLA 's Excercise is happening in this area. Now, will we see repeat of Excercise like Chang Thang Prahar in future from IA, also will be the XVI Corps be relocated to HP as you have opined ?
b. Is Nepal under Oli is cooking a recipe for its own disaster ?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiatoday.in/amp/world/story/nepal-endorses-new-law-on-hong-kong-backs-one-china-policy-1685114-2020-06-03 at the time of increasing case of Covid 19 which Nepal is worst prepared to fight alone at the time of JSP of Nepal calls for constitutional amendments, leave alone Border Row with India ?
c. At the time of the emergency situation arises out of recent border stand off with PRC is it possible for hassle free production of OFB Dhanus MGS, at the time of all of the Trade Unions staunch opposition against move for Corporatisation of OFBs? Is any step being taken ?
Will our side give up this territory or will PLA withdraw as you earlier predicted?
ReplyDeleteSatyaki
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/2020/06/03/82k-ofb-staff-to-go-on-indefinite-strike-against-corporatisation-plan.amp.html
ReplyDeletePrasun Da, I think Government should now fast forward the process of the Corporatisation. Please share your views. Thanks in advance.
ReplyDelete"Now expect matters to advance very quickly & within 5 days days a “mutual, proportionate, measured & calculated” de-induction of the deployed forces by both sides will commence in 3 sectors."
Will this happen as you said and I watched that televised report where a panelist used this term
Or India has to lose the area or lose many more .
India today reported that India is moving artillery gun and other staff . What that means a limited high intensity battle possible in those area.
Prasun,
ReplyDelete1 while the modi goxt is not able to get its act together on china here is some possible fake news... http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2020/06/new-made-in-india-fighter-cleared-for.html
2 The print article you shared is certianly a gloom scenrio then why is India not accepting US help against china.. also why don't we go an occupy other areas
Prasunda,
ReplyDeleteAnother new fighter is at planning stage ! Which is looks like Mirage 4000. Is Dassult involved ?
Best regards
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDeleteAfter reading General Panag's message in the Print, I'm depressed. They have come prepared with strength and India is at disadvantage. So your earlier assessment long time back is wrong i.e you had told that India won't lose an inch further. But I feel China needn't be 7 feet tall; rather showing red eyes it scare away India from its own territory. This is the fact.
Dear Prasun,
ReplyDeleteAny reason to believe the below news
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/new-made-in-india-fighter-cleared-for-development-first-flight-in-6-years-2240666
Prasun Da, from the article written by Lt Gen Panag that you shared y'day, it's quite clear that China is inside Indian territory.
ReplyDeleteThey have initiated this dialogue process only to buy time and stall the process. It seems they will NEVER vacate these areas that they have captured. So the only option that now remains is to force them out, which means a Border War.