Saturday, June 6, 2020

China-India Boundary Dispute: How It All Began

Inference: Whenever two neighbouring countries, when negotiating the delineation (on maps) and demarcation (on ground) of the mutually-applicable international boundaries (IB), resort to previous international treaties and historical paperwork relating to customary laws and traditions, this is not the case with Mainland China and India because, while the latter has documentation of the McMahon and Johnson-Ardagh Lines, the former has no such corresponding historical treaties or maps in its possession, since all such documentation was transferred from the Kuomintang (Nationalist) government in 1949 from Nanking (Nanjing) to Taiwan, where they today are preserved in a hardened underground tunnel complex located underneath the National Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall at Taipei’s Zhongzheng District. And without such documentation, China finds it impossible to agree on any legal parameter that is required for delineating and demarcating any IB and hence always insists that such documentation be superceded by a “political settlement”. It is for this reason that Mainland China will NEVER agree to negotiate the delineation and demarcation of not just the LAC, but even a legally-binding IB.
How Tibetan Ineptitude Reduced Pandit Nehru's Policy Options On Tibet
Inference: While popular perception dictates that India’s first Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru needs to be repeatedly excoriated for his government’s nonchalance in the face of stealthy military incursions by Mainland China into eastern Ladakh throughout the 1950s and 1960s, and for the disastrous and misguided “forward policy”, which constituted the actual casus belli for the Sino-Indian border-conflict of 1962, little-known historical factoids instead prove that it was the sheer ineptitude of the Tibetan government between 1949 and 1950 that forced Pandit Nehru to compromise with Mainland China throughout the 1950s.
Tibetan Uprising Origins
The CIA Starts Helping
Raising Of Special Frontier Force
CIA Wants Out, KGB Wants In
CIA Stirs Unrest Inside TAR, While R & AW Manipulates Dharamsala
Galwan River-Valley Clash Explained
34 45 40.71 N, 78 13 6.79 E
The first signs of discomfort in India started when the China a few days ago began pressing hard for another round of Corps Commander-level meeting to kickstart talks on the Panggong Tso Lake standoff. The PLA even moved a request for a Corps Commander-level meeting on June 16. India, however, declined and had conveyed to China’s interlocutors that a higher-level meeting would only be possible after complete disengagement from the Galwan Valley. This decision was taken at the highest levels. The issue on the table from an Indian standpoint were two semi-permanent structures with tents on PP-14 (Patrolling Point) in Galwan. The PLA-BDR troops had moved back some distance following local commander-level talks, but had refused to remove these structures. At PP-17 in Gogra/Hot Springs, China had apparently raised objection to some Indian Army hutments. In the recent past, PLA-BDR troops have acted in a pattern where they move up, build tented structures and then move back after talks without demolishing what they had made. This was flagged off by the Indian Army as a way to make re-occupation easier at these heights. However, pending resolution of these issues on Galwan, China was keen to start conversation on the Finger Areas of Panggong Tso. At that stage, a high-level meeting took place in Delhi on June 12 where it was decided that India will insist on complete resolution of the dispute in Galwan before moving on to Panggong Tso. South Block was, in fact, gearing up for a more protracted conversation on getting the PLA-BDR troops to move back from Finger-4 in Panggong Tso. It was felt that the PLA would be more belligerent there as it had moved into advantageous ground.
It was the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) insistence of constructing an observation post (OP) at Indian patrolling point (PP) that resulted in the violent scrap between the two sides on the evening of June 15. The post would have helped the PLA to not only observe Indian troop movements towards the Karakoram mountain range, but also would have had the capacity to interdict army vehicles plying on the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulet Beg Oldi (DS-DBO) road. Most importantly, the OP was on India’s side of the Line of Actual Control, or LAC. While India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar red-flagged this issue in his conversation with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, it is quite evident that the PLA had a pre-meditated plan in the garb of de-escalation to change the agreed alignment of the LAC and push out Indian Army from PP-14. This would have been hugely detrimental to Indian interests. Set-up in 1978 by the Indian Army, PP-14 is on a ridge that overlooks both the Galwan River Valley and the Galwan Nullah, which joins the Shyok River on whose bank the DSBO road is being build by Indian Army and BRO engineers. The June 6 meeting between the military commanders of China and India had even defined the number of troops to be present at each point leading to PP-14. But even as the de-escalation was on, the PLA wanted to put up an OP near PP-14 on grounds that it wanted to observe the dis-engagement of troops. This was strongly objected to by 16 Bihar Battalion’s Commanding Officer Col Santosh Babu, who rightly saw this as the breach of laid-down rules of disengagement. Around dusk on Monday, June 15, Col Santosh and his Company Commander went up to PP-14 and told his PLA counterpart to pull down the OP. A heated exchange ensued, more troops rushed in from both sides, and punches were thrown. The PLA, which has a base camp down from the ridge near the Galwan River, rushed in more troops in armoured personal carriers to the nearest road-head to PP-14. Initially, the Indian Army troops were present in significant strength, but the PLA soon outnumbered them. While China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has asked India to punish its troops for breach of discipline, the fact is that the PLA wanted to set up the OP as part of its efforts to redefine the LAC. PLA officers had told Indian Army officers before the scrap that the alignment of the LAC was behind PP-14. The illegal OP would not only have made the Indian position at PP-14 untenable, but also given a huge tactical advantage to the PLA with the option of interdicting Indian Army movement on the soon-to-be-constructed bridge with field artillery or direct-fire. If the OP had been allowed to be set-up the Indian Army supplies to DBO camp ahead would have been at the mercy of the PLA. With more than 600 troops involved in fisticuffs and hand-to-hand combat, the mountain ledge on which the fighting was taking place gave away to a landslide. This led to casualties on both sides as the troops fell into the Galwan Nullah and River, with a section of Indian Army troops being isolated on the other bank of the tributary. Drenched in the ice-cold water of Galwan River and with temperatures running way below zero, the Indian Army troops had nowhere to hide against the elements at an altitude of 16,000 feet ASL. A large number of Indian casualties are on count on standing out in the open in wet clothes to prevent the PLA from taking control of PP-14. The PLA engaged in a show of strength on the morning of June 16 by bringing in more armoured personnel carriers to the nearest road head to intimidate their Indian counterparts. The PLA had also linked the dis-engagement on PP-15 (in Gogra/Hot Springs) to the Indian Army allowing the OP being built near PP-14 on the Indian side. It was the courage of Col Santosh and his men that prevented that.
The clash between Indian Army and PLA troops in which both sides suffered casualties on June 16 began at around 7pm in the Galwan Valley when an Indian Army squad of about 50 soldiers, led by Colonel Santosh Babu, reached a contested site near PP- 14. The soldiers were unarmed, as part of a protocol between the two sides. Forward troops patrolling the disputed border either do not carry guns, or, if they do, keep them slung on their backs with the magazines in pouches and not clipped on. The PLA soldiers were supposed to have withdrawn from the location under a de-escalation plan discussed by senior commanders from both sides on June 6. But the Indian squad found the PLA troops, in violation of that understanding, did not pull back and their tents and an OP was still around. It was when Col Babu and his team confronted the PLA soldiers about their continued presence at the site that the clash broke out and the situation swiftly escalated as the PLA soldiers refused to vacate their positions and the Indian soldiers removed the tents and the OP that were on the Indian side of the LAC. In a matter of minutes, the soldiers were locked in hand-to-hand fighting that triggered a seven-hour violent face-off involving reinforcements from both sides. The clashes spread out from the PP-14 area to a nearby narrow ridge overlooking the river. It was there that both sides suffered casualties. The soldiers exchanged blows, threw stones at each other, and the PLA troops attacked Indian soldiers with iron rods and nail-studded clubs. Some soldiers, from both sides, fell into the water and their bodies were later retrieved on Tuesday June 16 morning. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) corroborated this sequence of events on June 17 when it detailed a conversation between Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. In a phone call, Jaishankar told the Yi that the PLA soldiers’ actions “reflected an intent to change the facts on the ground in violation of all our agreements to not change the status quo”. Jaishankar, in his call, underscored the need to implement the June 6 understanding reached by the military officials of both sides as part of a phased de-escalation strategy to ease tensions that had persisted for weeks. The plan was discussed between Lt Gen Harinder Singh, GOC of the Indian Army’s Leh-based XIV Corps, and Maj Gen Liu Lin, Commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) South Xinjiang Military District. According to it, the PLA was supposed to have fallen back around 5km to the east of the location. It had retreated a bit last week but came back to retake the positions they had temporarily vacated. On June 15, the PLA deployment had numerical superiority over the Indian side—more than 250 of them were present in the area when the Indian squad, despite being fewer in numbers, demanded that the PLA remove the structures and withdraw in order to return to status quo. The PLA was, however, adamant on holding its ground. It seemed prepared for a face-off. In the first wave of clashes on June 15 night, Col Babu and two other soldiers were grievously hurt and succumbed to their injuries. Reinforcements arrived from the Indian side within an hour and the brawl spilled over to beyond midnight, and the face-off involved more than 500 soldiers from both sides. The clash took place in pitch-dark conditions and resulted in 20 deaths on the Indian side, and possibly 46 casualties including injuries on the PLA side, pushing the bilateral relationship between the two nuclear powers to an all-time low. They were the first Indian casualties in a border skirmish with the PLA since October 1975 when PLA troops ambushed an Indian Army patrol in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tulung La sector and shot four soldiers dead. The deadly confrontation came on a day when Army delegations from India and China held talks at two locations along the LAC--one involving Brigadier-ranked officers who met at the Galwan Valley, and the other between Colonel-ranked officers at Hot Springs--as part of continuing efforts to resolve the standoff. The Indian Army acknowledged three casualties in a statement issued on June 16 afternoon. It later issued another statement in the evening saying, “17 Indian troops who were critically injured in the line of duty at the stand-off location and exposed to sub-zero temperatures in the high-altitude terrain have succumbed to their injuries, taking the total killed in action to 20.”
Galwan River-Valley
Gogra-Hot Springs
Panggong Tso Lake
Depsang Bulge-Trig Heights-Burtse
The PLA has marked its presence at a crucial Y-junction near the Burtse patrol camp in Ladakh. Barely 30km south of the strategically important Daulat Beg Oldie ALG, this Y-junction is also known as ‘bottleneck’ in Indian strategic circles because any patrol seeking to reach either Point 10 or Point 13 along the Line of Patrol, must cross this junction. It is interesting to recall that the PLA had crossed the Y-junction and stopped barely 1,500 metres short of the Burtse camp in April 2013. Both India and China use the route along Raki Nala, north of Y-junction, for patrolling purposes and it is not uncommon for both sides to run into each other. In 1976, the Govt of India had constituted a China Study Group (an in-house think-tank of the MEA), which revised the patrolling limits along the LAC. As can be seen from the map, patrolling points 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13 fall slightly short of the LAC.
IA & PLA Martyrs

210 comments:

  1. %tage of Chinese Content in a Cellphone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzewR9rnEBs

    India’s Economic Dependency on China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWco8C97kHw

    Decoding The India-China Standoff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNQwqMjHeRA

    Rory Medcalf onm Australia-India Cooperation:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2fLAgOSgPc

    Nathu-La Shocked China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FItUNG7-kZ8

    Keel-Laying Ceremony of First MILGEM Class Corvette for PN:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j80GyVbKA54

    China’s Type 054A FFG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PDI2lM-c6Y

    BILASPUR–SUNDERNAGGAR–LEH RAILWAY LINE:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIT8R946Cvk

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  2. Prasunda,

    If PLA has captured heights with the intention of holding these heights on our side of the LAC around the Galwan valley and near Gogra post as Gen. Panag claims, would'nt there be evidence of that in satellite photos ? So far nothing of this sort has showed up.

    Satyaki

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  3. To SATYAKI: This perhaps proves that the PLA-BDR has far greater respect for Mother Nature & appreciates the tyranny of the terrain than India's 'desi patrakaars' & self-styled 'analytical' internet fanboys!!!

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  4. Prasun da,

    Do we have anything to counter these Chinese Patrol Craft in Pangong Tso.

    http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2020/05/an-update-on-china-navy-in-tibet.html

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  5. Prasun Da,

    A question comes to mind about today's meeting. A senior Indian Army officer will be meeting a Chinese officer on our land held by China to deescalate. Chinese are good at signalling. It seems they want to say India is not its equal but inferior. I also feel that as before Kargil our Leaders who try to personalize relations with enemies thinking they will give historic twist to situation but are surprised at the plans of enemy. Why did our Netas, Babus and Senior Officers in Defense accept this.

    Secondly you have given great insight into the issues of TAR, Hongkong, US China relations post covid 19 situation, QUAD participation etc - All are strategic issues. I am sure in today's discussion the above points will not be point of talk. So does it means post the deescalation the above strategic points will be part of discussion at PM, MEA and Secretary level talks with a mellowed down India

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  6. So, the PLA-BDR has not taken the heights around Gogra post and Galwan, and all claims of this nature are speculative. Is this correct ?

    Anirudh

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  7. Prasunda, so based on the intial reports that are coming through, even today's talk between Indian Army and PLA could not end the stalemate. Clearly, the PLA is using these talks to buy time and bolster its own position on the ground.
    Government of India is on the defensive here. Maybe even now, they are waiting for the PLA to start firing first just like they did in 1962, 1967 and again in 1987.


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  8. Dear Prasun,

    Regarding your response:

    "How can India be at a disadvantage? Can’t the IA use its 155mm howitzers to dislodge the PLAGF from the occupied hilltops? If it could be done in 1999 under OP Vijay, it surely can be done now. Have you forgotten about the 1967 Nathu La fire-assaults when the IA took on the PLAGF despite China being a declared nuclear weapons state then?"

    First of all thank you for your response and enlightening me

    However, I have a concern. Referring Kargil, we are wrong here. If we use artillery fire, then don't they fall victim to Chinese air strike (I mean using helicopter gunships). We will lose the beautiful artillery pieces. Furthe, China has more helicopters than India. Being rookie, I feel that China will have the win in its side at last and we will get many more legends who would sacrifice their lives in the battlefield thanks to government apathy.

    I have another query: was China able to grab Indian territory during Vajpayee government? Please enlighten.

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  9. To SUSAN: LoLz! India had deployed far superior vessels way back in 2011, which I had revealed here:

    http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/11/naval-updates.html

    The PLA-BDR’s vessels are inferior as far as serviceability & lifespans go & hence more are ordered by the BDR to ensure that the reqd minimum vessels remain operable.

    To ANIRUDH: That’s right. The PLA-BDR units did succeed in making a few familiarisation forays from the base of the nullahs flown laterally into the Galwan River to the hilltops, but were eventually stopped by the IA & those are the videos that have gone viral. Right now, the PLA-BDR has neither made any makeshift ‘sangars’ nor pitched any durable fibre-glass huts atop any of the hilltops in & around Galwan River & are instead sitting on tents receted only at the confluence of the Galwan & Shyok rivers, i.e. these are by no means dominating positions.

    To SANJAY MULKIKAR & BUDDHA: This time, the mood in India’s ruling political circles & officialdom is totally different, since for the very first time China is at the receiving end on a global scale. Hence, military coercion is the last & worst card to be employed by China against India. The ‘desi’ mass-media, as expected, has not yet reported about what really transpired in the closed-door sessions of China’s recently-concluded National People’s Congress’ Two Sessions, but details emanating from those sessions have quoted Chinese Premier Li Keqiang as admitting that 40% of China’s population has gone below the poverty line, while unemployment stands at 30%. China’s total debts now stand at 300% of GDP & each Chinese citizen has a debt of US$68,000. Nor does China possess the capacity for unveiling any new economic reforms. OEMs like Huawei are on the verge of bankruptsy, while the denial of latest-generation microchips by US-based & Taiwan-based OEMs means that all of China’s dreams about 5 G communications, quantum computing, quantum radars/quantum satellites etc etc will henceforth remain unrealised. Given this grim state of affairs, even a high-intensity limited war is the last thing that the Communist Party of China (CPC) will contemplate at this time, as this will only further alienate China’s citizens from the CPC, who will then accuse the CPC of wasting money on unnecessary matters. Hence, at the strategic level, as per my assessment, this time India will not be reqd to make even a single geo-strategic or geo-economic concession.

    At the tactical level, past incidents since 1967 (Nathu La fire-assaults), 1986-87 Wangdung/Sumdorong Chu standoff, the Chumar standoff of 2015 have proven beyond doubt that if one holds one’s ground without budging or yielding, then China always yields first due to its inherent military weaknesses, like not being battle-innoculated since 1979, possessing inferior military hardware & lacking the necessary habitability-support facilities reqd for staying at high-altitude plateaux for extended durations. Hence, come September the PLA-BDR will have no choice but to unilaterally return back to their peacetime home-bases, just as it had done back in 2015 as detailed below:

    Cont'd below

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  10. A Platoon-strength contingent of Chinese PLA came 10km inside Indian territory in the Burtse sector’s Depsang Plain in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) area on the night of April 15, 2013 and set up a tented post there. The Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) jawans also established a post 300 metres from the Chinese tent and asked the latter for a flag meeting. After the failure of the flag meetings to end the impasse, India sent 36 an IA contingent to the site. Indian Foreign Secretary, Ranjan Mathai, summoned the Chinese Ambassador to India, Wei Wei, in the third week of April and stressed the need for an early resolution of the issue. The standoff continued till April 29, 2013, when China erected an additional tent in the area, taking the number of such structures to five. The additional tent by China was pitched after three flag meetings failed. On May 5, the border standoff finally ended. The resolution was reached diplomatically after then National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, and then Indian Ambassador to China, S. Jaishankar, held consultations with their Chinese counterparts.

    The second incident was a faceoff between the troops of both sides on the very day, September 18, 2014, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping were holding talks in New Delhi. A total of 1,000 troops were reported to have moved inside the LAC in Ladakh’s Chumar region in the Western Sector, leading to a faceoff. The standoff continued till September 26, when Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussed the matter with him on the sidelines of the UN conference in New York. A few hours after the meeting, Chinese troops camping along the border withdrew. China said on September 30 that the frontier forces of the two countries had decided to withdraw simultaneously. Chumar is marked by rugged mountains at an altitude of around 16,000 to 18,000 feet, with low temperatures and harsh icy winds. It is one of those areas where India has a road right up to the LAC, then there is a sharp cut across a big nala (rivulet) marked on the map as 30R—a sudden relative height of 30 metres. On the other side of the nala is the Chinese road, but the sharp cutting does not allow their soldiers to come in vehicles up to their “perception” of the LAC, which lies further to the north of the Indian LAC. The Chinese soldiers come up to 30R in vehicles, then dismount and patrol on either horses or on foot, providing Indian soldiers enough warning time to stop their patrols and force them to return after the banner drill. This had led to an increase in Chinese transgressions in the area in 2013 and 2014.

    Cont'd below...

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  11. Lt Gen (Ret’d) D S Hooda, who was then the Northern Army Command’s GOC-in-C, said: “When I took over as the Army Commander, on my first visit to Ladakh, I found maps being carried where our LAC was marked clearly but even the Chinese ‘perception’ of the LAC was marked in dotted line. I passed orders that maps should only have one LAC, our LAC, and the Chinese line can be kept marked for the record in a map at the headquarters.” As tensions mounted, the Chinese brought in some dozers and construction equipment in the second week of September, digging the area of 30R to make a road. The local IA Company Commander reacted promptly, physically stopping the Chinese and it escalated the crisis. The Chinese came in large numbers to an area to the west of Chumar, and by the time President Xi landed in India, the faceoff had spread along a 10km frontage of the LAC. “That was the year we had decided to bring one Brigade from the reserve division to Ladakh for an exercise during summers, and this allowed us to stage those troops forward to Chumar quickly,” Lt Gen Hooda said. At its peak, there were more than 2,500 IA soldiers deployed against 1,500 PLA-BDR troops, with around 800 of them from each side locked in a faceoff. The Chinese realised that the road could no longer be built, and negotiations started at the level of Battalion and Brigade commanders. Chinese demands included India stopping the construction of a living shelter for soldiers in Chumar, and a water channel being made in Demchok. Lt Gen Hooda said these were “excuses given by them, as they were keen on removing the tactical disadvantage of their patrols not being able to come deeper by vehicles”. Within a few days of negotiations between local military commanders, the IA decided this had to be resolved at the diplomatic level. “Only minor issues can be resolved by local military commanders, like behaviour of patrols and conduct of banner drills. When it develops into a major issue, resolution can only happen at the diplomatic level. We saw that at Demchok in 2013 and at Doklam in 2017,” Lt Gen Hooda said. Diplomatic talks in Beijing were led by Indian ambassador Ashok Kantha with the Indian side insisting on restoration of status quo ante in the area. The Chinese agreed to stop the construction of their road across 30R, and the local military commanders agreed to a moratorium on patrolling by both sides in the disputed area for a few weeks. The two armies withdrew over the next two weeks. The living shelter for Indian soldiers stayed in Chumar, and the unofficial moratorium on patrolling by both armies in Chumar continued for a couple of years.

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  12. This clarifies the situation in Galwan. What about hot springs/gogra post ? Here too, the PLA arent set up on any heights. Is this correct ? If so, why did Gen. Panag write about PLA being put up on heights in these areas ?

    Anirudh

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  13. To ASD: No helicopter-gunship or attack helicopter can operate at such altutudes in either Galwan or Trig heights or at Hot Springs-Gogra & that’s the reason why no PLA helicopters can be seen overflying or flying along such standoff sites. Had already explained it in the previous thread. During the NDA-1 govt, some areas in Demchok were permenently grabbed by China.

    India-China Conundrum: What Should Be India's Military and Diplomatic Response?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yulFTkxFckY
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AF4J8WL0Hg

    To ANIRUDH: At the Hot Springs-Gogra site, the PLA-BDR has not occupied any dominating heights, but has instead set up camping sites in two areas just outside India’s perception of the LAC a few km away from the IA/ITBP observation posts & a further 7km away have brought in a squadron of Type 86 ICVs & a Battery of Type 66 152mm towed howitzers, both of which are described here:

    http://www.army-guide.com/eng/product2156.html

    http://www.army-guide.com/eng/product4177.html

    To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Not quite. The Wangdung/Sumdorong Chu standoff that began in 1986 was resolved only in 1993 when the final military disengagements were made. At Doklam in 2017 the standoff lasted 73 days. So what’s the hurry this time? Patience & perseverance are the needs of the hour & come September the PLA-BDR will be forced by Mother Nature to pack-up & leave. Meanwhile, I’ve uploaded above little-known factoids of 1949 & 1950 to prove that while Pandit Nehru had all the best intentions in his mind, it was the Tibetan ineptitude & stupidity that forced India to go for a compromise with China throughout the 1950s. Will continue uploading additional factoids over the coming days.

    And in what can only be construed as BAD NEWS for the PLAGF's command-n-control hierarchy in the Western Theatre Command, China appointed a new Army commander for its Western Theatre Command ground forces responsible for the Sino-India border, ahead of the key talks between senior Indian and Chinese military officials on June 6, 2020 to end the border standoff. The PLA Western Theatre Command, on its official website, announced that Lieutenant General Xu Qiling has been appointed as the new commander for its ground forces. Before this, he had reportedly served in the Eastern Theatre Command.

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  14. Dada,

    Hope you are doing well. I could not follow your blog for last 20-25 days. Hence I may ask questions which you have clarified multiple times on recent Chinese Aggression (rather stupidity) in Ladakh.

    1. Though Defence Minister Rajnath Singh was quoted saying Chinese Army moved inside the Indian side of LAC, as of now Chinese Army has moved back to Chinese administered side of LAC. In other words, status quo ante prior to recent Chinese Aggression has been restored as on today. Is my understanding correct?

    2. I read an article of Lt. General Panag where he claimed China has occupied 40-60 sq. km of Indian territory via recent invasion in 3 places namely Galwan Valley, Hotspring and Pangong Tso Lake. Is this claim factually wrong?

    3. Should India strategise in the long term to drive away China from Tibet and Xinjiang?

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  15. To AD: 1 & 2) If you watch this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yulFTkxFckY), then you will understand everything. The RM did not give much details, but what had happened was that the PLA-BDR's original plan was to come across the Galwan Valley & sit right in the middle of the DS-DBO Road after crossing the confluence of the Shyok & Galwan rivers, thereby stopping all traffic movement along that road & thereby acquiring tremendous bargaining leverage over India. But this did not go according to plan & the PLA-BDR was intercepted & stopped at a rivulet of the Galwan River just before the confluence of the Shyok & Galwan rivers (see GoogleEarth imagery in the previous thread). This in turn has now tremendously diminished China's negotiating powers & it was for this reason that Lt Gen He Qingcheng, the PLAGF Commander of the Western Theatre Command was sacked by President Xi Jinping & the CMC, since he had failed to realise the assigned campaign objective.

    2) India's long-term strategy calls for the establishment of an independent & sovereign Tibet. Why else do you think the Central Tibetan Administration-in-Exile is still being maintained & supported at Dharamsala?

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  16. Sir, your views on Nepal border dispute. What is the current status and will china take advantage of this dispute and what will be the final outcome. Did India made mistake in bringing democracy to Nepal. Thanks.

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  17. Dada,

    Thank you very much for response. I watched the video (quite incisive) though couldn't get much out of Google Earth images (my incompetence).

    1. In Galwan valley, is current locations of PLA presence considered inside Indian side of LAC as per Indian perception of LAC?

    2. In Hotspring too, is current locations of PLA presence considered inside Indian side of LAC as per Indian perception of LAC?

    3. What about Pangong Tso finger area? Today you shared another YouTube video (of Nitin Gokhale) where PLA presence is stated between finger area 4 and 8. In Pangong Tso, is current locations of PLA presence considered inside Indian side of LAC as per Indian perception of LAC?

    4. If answeres to either of questions 1,2,3 is/are true, how India will drive away PLA?

    5. How India will liberate Indian territories from China's occupation which China captured till date? If possible can you write a blog?

    6. As far as Tibet is concerned, independent Tibet Government once established should be made Indian protectorate like Bhutan. Your opinion please.

    7. What about Xinjiang? India shouldn't risk a free Xinjiang which might turned out to be a hotbed of Islamic Terrorism. Rather citing historical reference of Kushan Dynasty(the art championed by China) India should annex Xinjiang (known as Sinkiang before China changed her name) to Indian Union. Am I missing something?

    8. Inner Monglia and Manchuria too should be liberated from China. Can you please elaborate?

    9. And first and foremost, China has to be decimated economically by wooing companies to leave China (and set up their bases in India instead), enforcing ban on Chinese Companies/ Investments globally and enforcing economic sanctions on Chinese state.

    10. In a nutshell, apply Chanakya principles in every single dealing with China.

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  18. Even if I wouldn't say it but it goes without saying that your blog clears away the debris of disinformation that the so called experts and defense journalists throw our way. Prasun sir just a common man's question. Are we heading towards a war in regards to any of our neighbors.what happens in the case of a big terrorist strike from the pakistani side on us. How and what will be the chinese role in case the powers that be on our side decide to take the Pakistanis to task.jai Hind.

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  19. Dear Prasun,

    First of all I apologize for my ignorance. I'm irritating you by asking inferior questions.

    Still if possible remove my doubt. You told that IAF needs 80 Chinook for a decisive action against China. Now you told me in the last response about the unviable utility of helicopters. I'm confused. I owe you for your knowledge and time to respond me. Thanks in advance.

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  20. Prasunda,
    Any news on Kalyani group's 105 mm ultra light howitzer ? It was field tested after that no news ! Same is true aout their 155/39 howitzer !
    Thanks and regards

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  21. Prasun da

    1. What is the current status of Special Frontier Force ? Force Size ?
    under whom it works ?

    This is interesting scenario
    https://twitter.com/nitingokhale/status/1269585974633193472

    thanks
    Loki

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  22. Can you please shed some light on DRDO's anti drone laser cannon developed by CHESS ? it was put to operation during trump visit 2020. please share if there are any insights about it ?

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  23. Respected Sir,

    In view of the Tibetan's ineptitude/ foolishness/etc., gave a red carpet invitation to invade/capture Lhasa and its entire sacred knowledge with an additional unending struggle for boundary dispute resolution between India and PRC which was actually between India and Tibet to be resolved. But as a layman, I think this dispute is going to last very long in sheer lack of credible documentation. Please tell us how all the boundary documentation was tucked away to Taiwan? I seek ur wisdom please!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Probably this thread should find its way to school books.

    ReplyDelete
  25. To LOKI: Here’s most of the data that you seek WRT SFF. I will upload lots more above in the coming days, rest assured.

    1980: https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/indiascope/story/19801215-special-frontier-force-more-of-a-white-elephant-than-an-effective-intelligence-outfit-773611-2013-12-02

    1981: https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/investigation/story/19810315-large-majority-of-special-frontier-force-officers-involved-in-messy-sex-scandal-772750-2013-11-26

    1982: https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/indiascope/story/19820515-special-frontier-force-school-for-scandal-771792-2013-10-16

    2009: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india/the-curious-case-of-establishment-22/story-eiDenZvNioffJFupLzNGOI.html

    2014: https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/the-big-story/story/20140210-operation-bluestar-indira-gandhi-singh-bhindranwale-army-raw-paramilitary-unit-800036-1999-11-30

    https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/the-big-story/story/20140210-operation-bluestar-indira-gandhi-singh-bhindranwale-army-800031-1999-11-30

    2015: https://scroll.in/article/758465/forget-orop-tibetan-war-veterans-arent-even-getting-pensions

    2017: https://www.wionews.com/india-news/22-establishment-mysterious-force-and-indias-answer-to-china-27373

    http://www.youngbites.com/newsdet.aspx?q=220438

    2) The wargaming on the Northern Front involving IA HQ along with Hqs Northern Command, Central Command & Eastern Command was called EX DIVINE MATRIX & it was carried out in 2009. No such wargaming took place in 2018 & hence it is FAKE NEWS.

    To 3rd-EYE: Its slide was uploaded in the thread dealing with DEFEXPO-2016 & here it is:

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yx3i_42Wg-4/Vv8IOku1TAI/AAAAAAAAKgM/6uxAxbHZBEY9OsqsI9aeApiSNpPxsifFA/s1600/DRDO-conceptualised%2BDEW.jpg

    To AKS: All the imperial treasures, not just treaties & other related documentation, were ferried by sea to Taiwan in 1949. And along with all these the nobility of China also fled to Taiwan & today’s leaders of Mainland Chin are all from the farming community & hence they lack communications finesse & at the slightest pretext they stoop down to the lowest levels when snagging in combative verbal ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy.

    ReplyDelete
  26. To VINOD: All I can say is that Nepal’s days as an independent country are numbered due to internal instability & ever-growing poverty-levels. Meanwhile, a growing number of delusional Nepal-based ‘intellectuals’ are having a field-day castigating India through distorted narratives like these:

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/indias-strategic-illusions-delusion-and-hallucinations/

    https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/modis-neighborhood-first-a-fiasco-in-nepal/

    To AD: 1) No. 2) No. 3) No, the PLA-BDR presence between Fingers 4 & 8 lies in a contested area, meaning neither side can claim ownership of that stretch of land. 5) Had already explained that in the previous 2 threads. 6) Yes, because their population size is quite small. 7) Xinjiang became a part of China only in the 19th century & hence Cina cannot claim any civilisational influence on that piece of real estate & consequently its legal claim over Xinjiang either religiously, or demographically or culturally. 8) Those are areas where the Communist Party of China will continue to rule in case of a break-up of the present-day PRC.

    To ASHISH: Had that news-report been true, then by now all the India-based TV channels would have made it Headline News. But that hasn’t happened & only 1 TV channel & its sister publication are claiming the news to be true:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPIlLCK7x2g

    https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/months-isi-wanting-dawood-dead

    Hence, we can conclude that the evidence being presented is ZERO.

    NAYANDEEP: Yes, war is inevitable, but it will not happen against’s India’s best wishes. Between now & 2024 there will be a limited high-intensity war fought over PoK & certain parts of Aksai China, but no such event will happen in the near future.

    To ASD: You had asked me about employment of helicopter-gunships. CH-47F isn’t a helicopter-gunship. Different types of helicopters have different performance parameters & consequently, different types of applications.

    To PARTHASARATHI: The Kalyani 105mm MGS was never considered for acquisition by the IA. Only the 155mm/39-cal MGS shown at DEFEXPO-2020 is under consideration but its mobility & firing trials have yet to commence.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Prasunda,

    You have said that China would break into 3 parts: a ``core" China (incl. Hong Kong and Taiwan), a CCP ruled hardline communist state and Tibet.

    1) Would the CCP ruled entity inherit PRC's nuclear arsenal?

    2) How long is this break up likely to take?

    Satyaki

    ReplyDelete
  28. Sir , please educate me on the difference between full scale conventional war and limited high intensity war with historical examples.

    ReplyDelete
  29. in spite of the talks , it looks like china is mobilizing tanks at the border ?
    how true is that ?
    https://www.reddit.com/r/N_N_N/comments/gyc639/latest_video_near_the_chineseindian_border_shows/

    ReplyDelete
  30. To SATYAKI: 1) had already answered almost the same question in the previous thread. 2) Another 4 years at the bare minimum.

    To ROHIT GILL: The wars of 1965 & 1971 were full-scale conventional wars whereas the ones of 1947-48 & 1999 were limited high-intensity wars.

    To 3rd-EYE: The video shows the movements conducted on May 14, as revealed here:

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1190806.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  31. Prasun Da,


    What would be your comments on the below article in the latest issue of FORCE magazine

    http://forceindia.net/cover-story/china-pushes-boundary/

    Here, the writer talks about a Chin-Pak nexus to cut-off Siachen. In hindsight, shouldn't the takeover of PoK be the next strategic objective as this will entail us to bargain with China towards making use of the high investments they have made in our territory (PoK). We can give them rights to move their cargo through the area and Gwadar in lieu of them moving to a defined LAC which is behind Aksai Chin.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Hi Prasun,

    1. This report says that the Mig 29UPG of the Indian Air Force has Zuk AESA radars. Is it true?

    http://www.sps-aviation.com/story/?id=2670&h=Upgraded-IAF-MiG-29s-SPAR-with-Omani-F-16s

    2. Given that China is sending Tanks to the LAC how do you recon the Indian Army will target these tanks? With Spike ATGM?

    Thank you Sir

    ReplyDelete
  33. In my opinion, the Pakistan will trigger this chain of wars and in that process Pakistan will be finished completely forever. China too will be very badly defeated and broken in to many Lichchhvi, Vaishalee and Vataayan types of small peaceful democratic republics. Is it possible, because the time seems to have arrived?

    ReplyDelete
  34. To DEFENCE & AEROSPACE: 1) It is FAKE NEWS. The MiG-29UPG & MiG-29K both use Phazatron NIIR’s Zhuk-M2E mechanically scanned radar. The ASESA-MMR from Phahaztron is Zhuk-AE & not Zhuk-ME, i.e. the usual faux pas by yet another ‘desi patrakaar’. 2) Why Spike ATGMs? Why not Konkurs-M or Milan-2T? Why not 80mm or 122mm air-to-ground unguided rockets that can be fired by MiG-21 Bisons, Jaguars, Mi-17V-5s & Su-30MKIs?

    To RAJESH MISHRA: The question no one in India is asking as yet is why was the PLAGF Commander of the PLA’s Western Theatre suddenly & unceremoniously sacked & replaced by a new Commander on June 2? Find the answer & one will realise how much on a weak footing China really is, militarily speaking. The rest, like the videoclips below, is all window-dressing:

    PLA Exercises: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFaUoHCIUzs
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJlPd1Y0Rl4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f50V8_1_8pg
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RxeS3f0zB4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3kEB3zXmTk

    PLA-PA Joint Drill: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uByLcJ2-hs

    Excellent explanation by Ret'd Lt Gen H S Panag to 'Sadmon' Jacob on what’s transpiring in Ladakh:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaH-KuFPkio

    Over-Estimation of China’s Military Might:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO293YE3OPM
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWtgPWoEwhY
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRNs_p2W2PA

    ReplyDelete
  35. Dear Prasun,

    China's show of strength in Ladakh
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mO293YE3OPM

    1. As per Pravin Sawhney, China is not worried about Indian Infrastructure buildup. He keeps repeating china is not going to fight any traditional war with India. Only Algorithmic and Cyber war is going to happen. And he blames Gen. Rawat is misleading Indian government and he should be fired from the post.

    2. You told that September will be very cold and Chinese is going to pack and go. But after the talks failed, it looks like both parties are in long haul.

    Do you agree?

    Please comment.

    Thanks & Regards
    Senthil Kumar

    ReplyDelete
  36. Dear Prasun,

    I used to feel the GoI to be impotent. But after NDA Government is in power everything has changed. Now in near future PoK can be ours.

    So my question is if India GETS BACK PoK, what's the implications on Chinese strategy. Won't China fear the same retaliation from India regarding Aksai chin? Won't China interfere in Indian action against PoK or just sit and watch? China will interfere in some different ways if not war. Please share your views.

    ReplyDelete
  37. To MOHIT BAJAJ: There are several discrepancies & contradictions in that article, as well as missing factoids. Here they are:

    1) The Sino-Pakistan collusive threat WRT northern J & K and Ladakh was wargamed way back in 2009 as EX DIVINE MATRIX. Hence, the scenario now being discussed is of 2009 vintage. 2) Since 2013, China has been conveying to India officially & unofficially (through Track 1.5 seminars) that Sino-India relations cannot improve unless India first improves her bilateral relations with Pakistan, i.e. the final status of PoK has to be resolved by India making further concessions on the lines of Gen Musharraf’s 4-Point Formula so that Pakistan gets to covet the Kashmir Valley for good. China in turn will covet Ladakh & Aksai Chin. This grand-design was finalised by both Beijing & Islamabad way back in 2009 itself & that’s why China since then has been insisting that it has no borders/frontiers with Ladakh & hence the LAC’s length is only 2,000km. Consequently, the Trans-Karakoram Tract that includes the Shaksgam Valley in PoK also, by default, becomes China’s sovereign territory. But why all this? Because the only to ensure that Pakistan does not become a water-scarce country by 2025 is by ensuring the continuous supply of water to Pakistan from the Indus River, which originates in Ngari, Tibet. Hence, to guarantee that water from Ngari flows uninterrupted to Pakistan via Ladakh, the Kashmir Valley & PoK, it becomes imperative for Pakistan to get ownership rights over Kashmir Valley, while China gets the same with Ladakh. That has been the grand design because without it, CPEC stays still-born. So what we have been seeing since April 2013 (China’s transgression in the Depsang Plain) are all meant to facilitate the attainment of this grand design’s success.

    2) There has never been, and will never be any inter-operability between the armed forces of China & Pakistan, since the training protocols of both countries greatly differ & Pakistan follows the Western protocols. Add to this the language barrier. Hence, Sino-Pakistan military cooperation does not entail joint warfighting, but shared taskings aimed at attaining a common objective. A prime example of this has been the quantum increase in ceasefire violations along the LoC since January 2019, this being to deflect India’s attention towards the LoC in the hope of India neglecting her readiness-levels along the LAC. But as we now know, this has not happened & the PLAGF’s & PLA-BDR’s movements were all being tracked since last December through TAR & Xinjiang & hence their attempts at forcible land-grab in Galwan & Burtse/Trig Heights were forestalled & that’s why the PLAGF Commander of the PLA’s Western Theatre Command was unceremoniously sacked & replaced by a new Commander on June 2.

    3) If it is to be ASSUMED that LACMs can be used for interdicting India’s roadways in Ladakh, then the same assumption also applies to Pok & Aksai Chin where BrahMos-1 land-attack cruise misiles can be used for achieving similar objectives. This, therefore will not be winning formula for either China ir Pakistan.

    4) The PLA’s cyberwar capabilities are at a very rudimentary stage & are no way even near to those of even Israel & Taiwan, leave alone the US. If China wanted to demonstrate its coercive capabilities through cyber warfare, it would have already done so in Taiwan or The Philippines or Indonesia, but this has not happened. Consequently, to ASSUME that China can paralyse India by introducing malware like STUXNET is absolute wishful thinking. However, what China can undertake successfully is cyber-espionage, which is a totally different domain & therefore cannot be construed as being the same as cyber warfare.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hi Prasun

    in response to your answer to MOHIT BAJAJ about the grand design of pak-sino collusion, where do the leaders of both these countries get the delusions that India will let go of kashmir valley and Ladakh? i mean what makes these two countries think and they get to make these delusions of grandeur plans and india(a country with nukes) will accept it. do the leaders of these countries live in la la land?

    ReplyDelete
  39. Prasun Da, seems like Chinese propaganda video has gone horribly wrong, think WION is following your blog.

    https://youtu.be/GwDnSgDYN3Y

    ReplyDelete
  40. Dada,

    Can you share your thoughts please?

    1. What has gone awry with Pravin Sawhney? He is behaving like official mouth piece of China for quite sometime by either pressing panic button unnecessarily or attempting to intimidate about formidable Chinese military might (only paper tiger in reality though).

    2. The other guy is Bharat Karnad, whose only proficiency has been relegated and dwarfed into English vocabulary and a mere PRO of Russia and Russian arms in India.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Prasun Da , PRC is desperate to sabotage Vaccine research and promote Chinese traditional medicine : https://youtu.be/7l74Rj5-ilE and https://youtu.be/bmfq-BlHN_U,

    While unsuccessfully trying to stop sage of HCQS thus denying India it's rightful high position in World, using it's puppet WHO (read Tedros Adhanom),

    https://youtu.be/hH-KIdokN_k , it is shameful that this guy is still in charge of WHO , under whom the credibility of this organization is going down to the gutter.

    Also, an interesting read, how Bangladesh is earning some quick bucks by exporting Remedesivir using it's own LCD status, can Bangladeshi companies give Indian Pharmacy industry a run for money, or its to early to jump for a conclusion ?

    https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/a-bangladesh-pharma-company-causes-heartburn-in-indias-drugmakers-5375801.html/amp

    Kindly share your views on the above masters.

    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Hi Prasun,

    1. Do you see any possibility of India eventually taking over the entire Aksai Chin region?

    2. Please share any information that you may have about the upgrades that we can expect to see on the IAF's Mig 29UPG. Will Russia install an AESA radar?

    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Prasunda,

    Gen. Panag says in his interview with Sadmon Jacob that the claim that PLA has pccupied heights near Galwan valley/Hot Springs is his deduction and that there is no satellite evidence for this so far. He says that his deduction is based on his judgement that it is foolish to move along the valley without holding heights. Is it that PLA indeed made this foolish mistake, which is why they were pushed back in Galwan valley, leading to the PLAGF commander for the western theatre being replaced?

    Satyaki

    ReplyDelete
  44. To DEFENCE & AEROSPACE: 1) Not t5he entire Aksai Chin. In fact, India had gone the extra mile to suggest that Aksai Chin be divided in such a manner that India gets a certain part & China too gets to keep its G-219 there & the whole area be declared as a demilitarised zone. But China has refused this compromise formula. 2) MiG-29UPG data was uploaded last year itself here:

    http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/04/how-modernisation-of-iafs-fleet-of.html

    To AD: I can't speculate on what's right or wrong with them. You will have to ask them yourself. I can only point out flaws in their assessments/narratives through credible factoids.

    To HOODS007: Yes, they can be delusional because traditionally the leaderships of both countries have been self-centred, ethnocentric & revisionist.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Dada,

    My apologies for asking wrong questions.

    1.Did you mean (while answering to DEFENCE & AEROSPACE) India will never get back entire Aksai Chin? Or I misinterpreted your response? Earlier you suggested to my query that post balkanization of China, India will act as protectorate of Tibet. Hence I premused in future India will get back entire Aksai Chin.

    2. Meanwhile another desi news channel following your thoughts.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mCJVsdJc22Q

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UppZ96i1I5k

    3. Has Japan designed and developed XF9-1 turbofan engine indigenously without any foreign help?

    ReplyDelete
  46. To SUMANTA NAG: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-has-largest-most-experienced-mountain-army-in-the-world-says-chinese-military-expert/story-4eR8hDrrshV7j59OHvfIYO.html

    EX Chang Thang Prahar 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Za6j2tkE9Q0

    ReplyDelete
  47. Hello sir.A couple of questions:

    1)Since India's formula to divide Aksai Chin was rejected by China,doesn't that leave the door open for India to capture the entire Aksai Chin(once it gets the offensive capabilities)including the G219 in a future limited war?

    2)Did India lose some territory to China in the past in the fishtail 1 and 2 areas of Arunachal Pradesh?

    3)India already has a boundary with China occupied Shaksgam Valley through Siachen.Can India(once it gets the offensive capabilities)mount an offensive through Siachen to capture Shaksgam Valley or do we need to capture Gilgit-Baltistan first and mount an offensive
    from that side to capture Shaksgam Valley?

    4)This standoff is ending.The standoff at Pangong Tso is still going on but it should/will be resolved soon.My perception is that no concessions were made by India this time.Is that correct and can we say that India emerged as the winner/happier side from this standoff?

    ReplyDelete
  48. Hi Prasun,

    These two YouTube videos re. India and the US (possibly co-ordinated action??):

    "IAF Jets fly close to Karachi" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lucYSmb11yE

    and

    "USN carrier Ronald Reagan deploys in Indian Ocean to signal support for India". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPw3xG7RsKs

    My questions:

    1. Are these items fake news or are they true?

    2. If they are both true, what do they mean? Are the US and India trying to send a message to someone? Who? and what is the message?

    Thanks very much.

    Dilbert.

    ReplyDelete
  49. To AD: 1) If Mainland China isn’t broken up & TAR stays as part of the PRC, then India will have to trade some real estate with China in Aksin Chin simply because even though India brought in Aksai Chin within her borders in 1954, she never bothered to send her military patrols there until 1959 & thus India ended up creating the perception that she really did not care about losing territory there. If TAR gets independence, then too the territory of eastern Aksai Chin is most unlikely to be claimed by India since it is a desolate area where not even Ladakhi shepherds go there & in any case the Ladakhis are too small in number for populating that area. 3) Yes.

    To ARUN: 1) No, because even though India brought in Aksai Chin within her borders in 1954, she never bothered to send her military patrols there until 1959 & thus India ended up creating the perception that she really did not care about losing territory there. If TAR gets independence, then too the territory of eastern Aksai Chin is most unlikely to be claimed by India since it is a desolate area where not even Ladakhi shepherds go there & in any case the Ladakhis are too small in number for populating that area. Furthermore, India will not be able to develop credible offensive capabilities reqd for forcibly capturing Aksai Chin for at least another decade at best. 2) No. India lost only Longju in the late 1950s. 3) Siachen is a glacier. How can anyone mount a land offensive through a glacier? 4) Whether or not India made any concessions will become known only after another 90 days.

    And this is byfar the best comparative benchmarking of the armed forces of China & India:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6y0sIwjPNU&t=15s

    And more rumour-mongering by the ‘desi bandalbaaz’:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWyGtO5EWnM

    Finally, an explanation of the IA’s ‘Habitat’ that is now being touted as being ‘inferior’:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyClnBDCIQw

    To DILBERT & VASUKI: Both are FAKE NEWS.

    To ANUP: Far more revealing are these:

    https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/06/the-truth-hurts-says-indian-navys-1st-dhruv-flight-commander.html

    https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/06/navy-dhruv-spat-escalates-key-officers-throw-it-back-to-hal.html

    I can tell you that from an engineering standpoint, it will be SUICIDAL to procure any shipborne helicopter that is not equipped with automatic blade-folding system. I can also tell you that had HAL proposed a slightly stretched & heavier version of the existing 5.5-tonne ALH containing extra fuel-tanks & automatic blade folding mechanisms with a MTOW of 6.5 tonnes, the IN would have gladly sponsored its entire R & D back in the previous decade & such a solution would have been available by the year 2010. HAL’s total lack of visionary business foresight is to be blamed for the current state of affairs.

    ReplyDelete
  50. To BUDDHA: India-Nepal: Cartographic War https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clgER5aADLQ

    The Moon was Created 38 million years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZAv8xj6HFE&t=22s

    Oldest Indian Idol: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLBwWXpHRPo

    Types of ETs in our solar system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WCuG9MPskM&t=10s

    ReplyDelete
  51. Leadership Profiles of PLA's Western Theatre Command (WTC):

    The WTC Commander, Gen Zhao Zongqi, is well-known in India for having commanded the PLA-BDR and PLAGF troops during the Doklam standoff in 2017. Zhao Zongqi was born in Bin County, southern Heilongjiang Province, in April 1955. He joined the PLAGF in December 1970 and was incorporated into the 118th Regiment of 40 Division of the 14th Army in the Yunnan Border Region. During this period, Zhao served as the squad leader, acting platoon leader, and regiment reconnaissance staff. Later, he was part of a reconnaissance unit in the battlefield during the 1979 the Sino-Vietnam War in Western Front, where infiltrated 10km deep to collect intelligence, and assisted the PLAGF’s 40th Division in the battle of Lao Cai and Ban Fei. During that war, due to his merit, Zhao was transferred to the Reconnaissance Battalion of the 40th Division. In the following two mountain battles, Zhao led the team to support the 31st Division of the 14th GA and participated in the Yinshan battle. In 2016, then Lt Gen Zhao was transferred from Jinan Military Region (where he was the Commander) to Chengdu (Sichuan), the Western Theatre Command (WTC) HQ, to become the first Commander of the WTC. Perhaps more importantly, Gen Zhao served 20 years in the WTC’s Tibet Military District (TMD). He knows every inch and corner of the LAC, at least of the TMD, which includes the trijunction of Bhutan-India-Tibet where the Doklam standoff took place in 2017. He is also aware of every inch of the frontier in Northern Sikkim (under Kampa Dzong district). In April 1992, Zhao was appointed as Commander of the 52 Mountain Brigade of TMD. The 52 Brigade was also one of the first Brigades of the PLAGF to undertake reforms. Until 2003, Zhao had been stationed in Tibet with the 52 Brigade. During this period, he insisted on strengthening the construction of Tibetan border posts, advocated large-scale military training, and continuously improved the combat readiness of the 52nd Brigade. In 1998, Zhao was promoted to Deputy Chief-of-Staff of TMD and soon became the Chief-of-Staff. In July 2001, he was promoted to the rank of Maj Gen.

    Gen He Weilong was previously Deputy Commander of the WTC and Commander of the WTC’s PLAGF component. He was promoted to the rank of Maj Gen in July 2008, Lt Gen in July 2017 and Gen in December 2019. Recently, he was a delegate to the National People’s Congress. Though theoritically, he has no operational control, he is only responsible for the training, equipment and manpower of the PLAGF component of the WTC. This post had remained ‘vacant’ for more than five months. It is only in May 2020 that it was announced that Lt Gen Xu Qiling had taken over as the new Commander of the WTC’s PLAGF component from Gen He Weilong. On May 29, the WTC held a meeting of the Standing Committee of the WTC’s Party Committee “to convey the spirit of learning of the third meeting of the 13th National People’s Congress. Lt Gen Xu Qiling, the new Commander of the WTC’s PLAGF component, delivered the report and the WTC PLAGF’s Political Commissar Lt Gen Xu Deqing presided over the meeting. Lt Gen Xu Qiling was born in Huaiyang District, Zhoukou, Henan in July 1963. He served in the Jinan Military Region for a long time before being transferred as Commander of the 83rd Group Army. He was Deputy Commander of the Central Theatre Command (CTC) in 2016, and held that office until March 2017, when he was appointed Commander of the 79th Group Army. He rose to become commander of the Eastern Theatre Command’s (ETC) PLAGF component in December 2018, replacing Lt Gen Qin Weijiang. On December 11, 2019, he was promoted to the rank of Lt Gen by President/Party Chairman & Commander-in-Chief Xi Jinping. Like Lt Gen He Weilong, he was a delegate to the 13th National People’s Congress.

    Cont'd below...

    ReplyDelete
  52. Gen Xu Qiling’s counterpart in the Air Force is Lt Gen Wang Qiang. He was already a full-time Deputy Commander of the WTC. Since May 8, 2020 he has been holding the post of Commander of the WTC’s PLA Air Force (PLAAF) component. He replaced Lt Gen Zhan Houxun, who has retired. Lt Gen Wang Qiang is also a fighter pilot. He once served as a Division Commander of the Air Force Aviation Division of the Jinan Military Region, and Deputy Chief-of-Staff of the Air Force of the Jinan Military Region (like his boss Gen Zhao Zhonqi). In July 2014, while in Jinan, he was promoted to the rank of Maj Gen of the PLAAF. Following the military reforms, in January 2016 he followed Gen Zhao in Chengdu and was promoted to Deputy Chief-of-staff of the WTC and later Chief-of-Staff of the Air Force of the WTC. In 2018, he was promoted to full-time Deputy Commander of the WTC. In December 2019, he became a Lt Gen in the PLAAF. The WTC Air Command HQ is located in Chengdu. Interestingly, Lt Gen Wang Qiang visited India in 2017 during the Aero India 2017 expo.

    Lt Gen Xu Yong who had been commanding the TMD for the past seven years, seems to have retired since a few months. Lt Gen Wang Haijiang has taken over his responsibilities. Incidentally, Wang attended the opening ceremony of the 6th India China Joint Training Exercise (EX Hand-in-Hand 2016), held at the parade ground of the Aundh Military Camp in Pune. Wang was born in Anyue County, Sichuan in July 1963. He participated in the Sino-Vietnam War and won first-class merit. After the war, he became Secretary to Li Qianyuan, former Commander of the Lanzhou Military Region. He served in the 76th GA since 1997. Wang also served as the 61 Division Commander and Deputy Commander of the Southern Xinjiang Military District (SXMD). In January 2013 he was promoted to become Deputy Commander of the Nanjiang Military District, a position he held until 2016, when he was appointed Deputy Commander of the TMD. On December 10, 2019, he was promoted to the rank of Lt Gen. Like Gen He Weilong and Lt Gen Xu Qiling, he recently attended as a delegate the 13th National People’s Congress in Beijing. However, Lt Gen Xu Yong’s colleague and commander of the XMD, Lt Gen Liu Wanglong was not seen anywhere. It has to be noted that the Commander of the TMD is only ranked No.6 in the Communist hierarchy of the Tibet Autonomous Region or TAR (after the Party Secretary and the four Deputy Secretaries).

    Cont'd below...

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  53. Lt Gen Liu Wanlong was born in July 1962 in Dongchangfu District, Liaocheng City, Shandong Province. In February 2008, Liu was appointed Commander of the Ngari (Ali) MD of the XMD, facing northern India. In 2011, he was transferred and appointed Deputy Commander of the SXMD. In 2013, he was posted as a Minister of the Military Department of the Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps. On March 17, 2014, Liu was transferred to the Gansu MD. It was also the time when the heads began rolling in the PLA and ultimately between 100 and 200 Major Generals and above were ‘investigated’ and lost their jobs. ‘Adjustment’ became a routine in the senior ranks of the PLA. In June 2016, the Political Commissar of the Lanzhou MD, Maj Gen Li Changcai, said that the Central Military Commission (CMC) had appointed Liu Wanlong as Commander of the Gansu MD, in place of Chen Zhishu. Liu Wanlong also served as a member of the Standing Committee of the CPC Gansu Provincial Committee. In January 2017, he was transferred to the Xinjiang MD as its commander. In Urumqi (XMD), he replaced Lt Gen Peng Yong. In December 2012 Liu was promoted to the rank of Maj Gen and in July 2018, to the rank of Lt Gen. According to a statement of the Embassy of India in Beijing, during the official visit to China of Lt Gen Ranbir Singh, GoC-in-C of the Indian Army’s HQ Northern Command (between January 7 and 10, 2020), the Indian delegation had meetings at Beijing, Chengdu and Urumqi. On January 8, 2020, Lt Gen Ranbir visited Chengdu and met Gen Zhao Zongqi, Commander of the WTC. The next day, the delegation flew to Urumqi and met Lt Gen Liu Wanlong. Since then, Gen Liu has not been seen in public. He did not attend the recently-held National People’s Congress in Beijing, while his counterpart for the TMD, Lt Gen Wang Haijiang was in attendance. So was Gen Zhao Zongqi. Gen Liu Wanglong was not even listed as one of the 269 PLA delegates. Was he indisposed or busy preparing the operations in Ladakh? Lt Gen Liu Wanglong is still listed as a member of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.

    Maj Gen Lui Lin is the current Commander of SXMD. He was earlier Chief-of-Staff of the SXMD, which exercises frontline responsibility and jurisdiction over the Hotan and Ngari Military Sub-Districts (Ladakh comes under Hotan Military Sub-District). On April 10, 1987, the CMC had established the ‘Southern Military Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’ under the Xinjiang Military District. The SXMD itself is based in Kashgar. On November 4, 2016, it was announced that the role of the SXMD was to be “stationed on the northwestern border of the motherland, guarding more than 900,000 sq km of the territory of the People’s Republic as well as the borderline of more than 3,500km.” Li Lin was promoted to the rank of Maj Gen in January 2015 and was transferred as the Deputy Commander of the SXMD the same year. Last year, Maj Gen Liu Lin was appointed as SXMD Commander. In 2017, Liu Lin participated in Zhurihe’s military exercise in Inner Mongolia, as a leader of the self-propelled artillery team. Liu Lin earlier served as the Commander of the XMD’s 8th Infantry Division.

    Cont'd below...

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  54. For decades, Maj Gen Liu Geping served in the SXMD. He was commanding the PLAGF during the major intrusions in April 2013 in the Depsang Plains just before Premier Li Keqiang’s maiden visit to India, and in September 2014 in Chumarh as President Xi Jinping arrived in Delhi/Ahmedabad. At that time, as a Senior Colonel, Liu Geping was commanding the Ngari (Ali) SMD, he was responsible for areas such as Chushul, Panggong Tso, Demchok, Chumar and Shipki La Pass. In early September 2014, Liu received an order to take his troops to a certain area in the No.6 Area and perform a training exercise called ‘OP Hurricane’. This was the intrusion in Chumar, Ladakh. The task force, after receiving specific instructions while travelling, arranged the tasks of each detachment while advancing quickly. The zipper area was at a long distance, high altitude, low temperature, poor road conditions, and belongs to the no man’s land area. This operation took 375 hours. In July 2017, Liu was promoted to Maj General and transferred to Xinjiang as Commander of the Military Department of the Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps. The responsibility of this Department is the recruitment, training, deployment and overall management of all militia units in Xinjiang, including guarding the Uighur ‘reform’ camps. Maj Gen Liu recently replaced Maj Gen Qu Xinyong as Commander of the Sichuan Military District (SMD). The new SMD commander was seen for the first time in his new post on April 21, 2020.

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  55. Prasun Da,

    The likes of Praveen Sawhney hate Modi so much, they will do and say anything even against India? Surigcal Strike is fake, Balakot fake, China occupied Galwan valley and Indian Soldiers demoralized (maybe true to some level).

    Unless its all true? Your thoughts?


    AJ

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  56. Dear Prasun Da,

    My fear is that Modi Govt has folded before bullying of ccp and that Galwan+area between Finger 4 & 8 is gone forever.
    I hope your prediction & assessment come true that china will withdraw from and my fears prove wrong.

    Warm Regards

    ReplyDelete
  57. To SATYAKI, AJ & PAWAN: LoLz! Just the mere application of sound common-sense & logical reasoning will expose all those ‘desi patrakaars’ making ill-conceived deductions WRT the sdtandoffs in Ladakh. For instance:

    1) The DSDBO Road is just 10km to the west of India-congtrolled territory in Galwan & hence occupation of any dominating height there is TOTALLY UNNECESSARY since the PLAGF can easily deploy MALE-UAVs another 15km to the east of the perceived LAC to get a clear & constant view of the DSDBO Road in case field artiilery fire-assults need to be mounted by the PLAGF. Hence, occupation of the heights around galwan Valley was never a military necessity for the PLAGF. Those ‘desi patrakkars’ who are today arguing otherwise are stuck back in 1999 when neither India nor Pakistan had UAVs & consequently both had considered it imperative to dominate the heights in northern J & K so that they could visually direct artillery fire-assaults.

    2) There are several inherent contradictions within the narratives of the ‘desi patrakaars’ & ill-informed commentators. For instance, while it is being claimed that the PLA believes in winning a war without fighting it, then why have the PLA-BDR & PLAGF Brigades been mobilised & deployed in & around the standoff areas? To me, therefore, such deployments are mere ‘tantrums’ to gain India’s attention in the hope of certain political concessions being extracted, like in 2018 after the Wuhan Summit when India quietly replaced the word TAIWAN with CHINESE TAIPEI.

    3) If the PLASSF indeed has formidable offensive cyber-attack capabilities, then why were they not employed in Taiwan for preventing the pro-independence DPP party from coming to power? Why is it that the PLARF has been increasing its arsenals of IRBMs & MRBMs armed with EMP-generating warheads? From this, we can safely conclude that the cyber-attack scenarios being conjured by the ‘desi commentators’ are all Hollywood-inspired & reside only in the domain of science-fiction, whereas in reality the PLARF will resort to employing IRBMs & MRBMs armed with EMP-generating warheads for TEMPORARILY paralysing an adversary’s electronics-based communications networks. And as Russia has demonstrated numerous times before in both Estonia & Ukraine, cyber-attacks are launched only for disinformation dessimination campaigns.

    Cont'd below...

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  58. 4) All perceptions of India having lost territory due to the on-going standoffs are NOTIONAL because there is no perimeter-fencing erected in any area along the LAC to denote that a certain piece of real-estate belongs to India. In reality, India lost territory in Ladakh between 1951 & 1962 simply because India started sending CRPF & J & K Militia patrols to only the western portion of Aksai Chin (i.e. Kongka la & LOanak La passes) that that too only from 1959. Never before were such patrols launched in the previous years. And in mid-1999 it was the IA that left the area between Finger-4 & Finger-8 in Panggong Tso Lake unattended. Was it not the IA’s responsibility then to regularly go to Finger-8 & the adjacent Sirijap-1/2/3 areas where the IA’s martyred fallen were cremated in late 1962? Why did the IA fail to establish a permanent presence there when China had yet to possess a US$14 trillion economy & its armed forces wre not five times bigger than India’s?

    5) Most importantly—the most crucial point now being overlooked—is why did India fail to act decisively back in 2009 itself when China unilaterally declared that it considered the J & K as disputed territory & that Ladakh did not belong to India, due to which in China’s perception the LAC’s length had then been reduced to a length of only 2,000km? Anyone with sound common-sense would then have grasped that China had already begun the process of gobbling up the whole of Ladakh & that this was just a matter of time. It has been 10 years since then & India has done nothing to make China reverse its stand on Ladakh & instead almost everyone now seems to be concerned about loosing a few additional sq km of real-estate in Ladakh—which is totally bizarre. No one commentator in India today is contesting China’s 2009 total political annexation of Ladakh & if this continues, China via a fait accompli will in the years ahead will reinforce Ladakh’s political annexation with an actual territorial annexation using military force. In other words, India is now ruing the loss of a piece of the pie at a time when the entire pie stands to be lost in the years ahead.

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  59. Prasunda,

    VMT. When you have pointed out that PLA is militarily on a much weaker footing than commentators make it out to be, how can China seize Ladakh from us by military force? Their grand strategy of Ladakh to China, Kashmir to Pak does not seem possible unless China equips itself to change the balance while we do nothing.

    Satyaki

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  60. Prasunda,
    Watching Force Utube channel. It seems the presenter is sanguine that IAF do not have network centric capabilities ! Is it correct ! If yes then why we do need long range BVR missiles when data link between plane and missile is not possible !
    Best regards

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  61. Dada,

    Too many questions these time. Hopefully I am not irritating you.

    1. You mentioned in a reply to one of my previous query that all the latest SONARs from DRDO are low frequency SONARs vis a vis current global trend of ultra low frequency SONAR. Is DRDO working on to upgrade/develop ultra low frequency SONAR?

    2. You also mentioned that DRDO will not develop any hypersonic missile based on technology of HSTDV. Then what will be the outcome of HSTDV project? Will it be used for developing Hypersonic warheads to be implanted on top of Ballistic Missiles?

    3. Can you write a blog on future indigenous MBT please?

    4, As you mentioned there is no missile called AGNI -6. Does that mean there will not be any Ground Launched Ballistic Missile having longer range than AGNI-5?

    5. What about ranges of different K series missile and their status please?

    6. I can remember you mentioned earlier Arihant cannot be used to fire K-4 missile. Can you elaborate on SSBN which will be able to deploy K-4 and longer range SLBM?

    7. Is India planning to acquire any LRAAM from abroad or DRDO is working on LRAAM? You explained earlier SFDR based AAM under development by DRDO is a BVRAAM, not LRAAM.

    8. What will be future of ATAGS project? You mentioned with the advent of NLOS SS BSM , towed artillery is sitting ducks.

    9. In an earlier thread you mentioned "At the tactical unit-level, the PLAGF has since 2017 accelerated service-induction of direct fire-support weapons like shoulder-carried LP D-50 flamethrowers and shoulder-launched ‘Hidden Blade’ thermobaric missiles," is India procuring or developing such weapons? How these weapon systems can be countered?

    10. Is IN procuring any LHD/LPD/LPH? If yes, would it be LPD or LPH or LHD. I guess difference among them is LPD can carry maximum 4 helo, whereas for LPH the count is 16 max and anything above this threshold is dubbed as LHD.

    11. Does India possesses any missile with EMP generating warheads?

    12. How to stave off Chiness IRBMs & MRBMs armed with EMP-generating warheads?

    13. "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6y0sIwjPNU&t=15s" - here ex Indian army generals sounded apprehensive about Chiness cyber warfare capability and EMP strike capability.
    i. Does China posses any cyber warfare capability other than misinformation campaign and cyber espionage capability?

    ii. I believe China lacks Cyber Offensive capability like Stuxnet crippling Iranian Nuclear weapon development by decades. Am I correct in assessment?

    iii. What is full gamut of Chinese EMP capabilities?

    14. Based on your answers, it is quite apparent India cannot recover Aksai Chin and parts of Arunachal Pradesh lost to China (namely Longju) until balkanization of China. Will balkanization of China happen at all? If yes, when?

    15. Can India recover Trans-Karakorum Tract from Chinese occupation along with PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan by 2024? Or by 2024 India will recover only PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan from Pakistan but Trans-Karakorum Tract cannot be recovered until balkanization of China?

    16. I got spechless when you confirmed Japan developed XF9-1 turbofan from scratch completely indigenously without any foreign help. Can you write a blog on these tremendous achievement of Japan? India and China both failed but Japan quietly hit the bullseye.

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  62. PrasunDa,

    1) In the images of PLA stations or bases that you have added, i have noticed there is always a SIGNIT (signature intelligence) base/post a small distance away. Similar posts are not visible in Indian deployments. Are they not there or not shown or we are not giving sufficient importance to that.

    2) Why for PLA or China Ladakh being a union territory or as part of J&K makes any difference. Is it a legal hurdle that they are worries, in any case they never respect any ICJ verdicts.

    3) Its a foregone conclusion that incase things hotup and lead to limited border war, PLA will use NLOS-BSMs to strike ALGs. Do you think our over dependence on ALG is a major drawback for us, in absence of good road network.

    4) I see current event as very similar to events pre 1962 like 1959, so a border war with china seems imminet in few years. But being a strategic player, china will wait for event like 1962 (Cuban crisis) when attention of world powers is somewhere else to make a move against India. Do you think they would wait for some other crisis event to make their move against India.

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  63. Prasun, I am a bit taken aback by your changing analysis. From a brief military spat aimed at slapping India back down to now it stands at India loosing entirety of Ladakh. A few day ago you mentioned, Russians getting in to the fray and Americans watching like a hawk, we are now hearing India as it stands right now, is all alone. This fact was emphatically stated by late Brajesh Mishra. Did India lost the battle when a polite guy with high intellect Shivshankar Menon was put in charge of national security, when a more shrewd person was requirement of the day? It seems were playing chess when China was playing checkers all this time. We got outplayed. So to put it crudely, there is no point in crying for getting pregnant when we didn't take precautions while getting fucked by Chinese. :(

    ReplyDelete
  64. To SATYAKI: That’s because you are ASSUMING that China will gobble up Ladakhi in the immediate future, whereas I had used the words “in the years ahead”. If you were to take a stock of all the long-overdue force modernisation accretion of India’s armed forces since the year 2000, you will notice that the gap between China & India has been widening with each passing year. For instance: 1) Plans for the IAF procuring 11 AEW & CS platforms by 2020 have nowhere near implementation. 2) Plans for procuring 10 MRTTs for the IAF by 2018 have yet to be realised. 3) Procurement of 814 155mm/52-cal MGS for the IA remains elusive. 4) Replacement of solid-fuelled Prithvi SS-150 SS-BSMs with solid-fuelled Pralay SS-BSMs, originally scheduled for the period between 2010 & 2015, have yet to even commence. 5) Building of new cantonments & ALGs in both Himachal Pradesh & Uttarkhand for housing IBGs specialising in high-altitude plateau warfare has yet to commence. 6) Procurement of single-engined LUHs for both the IAF & IA has yet to commence. 7) Procurement of nine belly-mounted SAR-equipped ISTR platforms has yet to commence. 8) Procurement turbofan-powered HALE-UAVs capable of operating along the LAC has yet to commence. 9) Reqmts for up to 150 attack helicopters & up to 60 CH-47F-type heavilift helicopters have yet to be met. 10) Even a rudimentary disposable ‘desi’ turbofan for LACMs like Nirbhay has yet to be developed, while everyone agonises over the non-development of the far more complicated Kaveri turbofan. The list of callousness & criminal negligence goes on & on.

    To PARTHASARATHI: India was very much into the development of algorithmic warfare components for communicating between various types of data-links very early in this decade, as proved by these 2 presentations during the Aero India-2013 expo:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmUgll6Jd1A&list=PLUueWTRSgH723fAdE8aDGdRp2LHxxDqPQ&index=30

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vz81T-SVuKw

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  65. To AD: 1) Yes, but the results won’t be obtained for at least another 7 years. 2) HSTDV was never meant to be a military project, but with dual-use applications. Hence the Zircon/BrahMos-2 had emerged as a purely military project. 3) Had do9ne that 3 years ago. 4) There will be & it will be the definitive version of Agni-5. 5) Nothing new to add. 6) Had done that back in 2012 itself after the DEFEXPO-2012 show report. 7) No. 8) ATAGS will be procured by the IA for operations in the plains & highlands. 9) RFIs were issued by the IA five years ago for flamethrowers, but none have been ordered. 10) No. 11) Not yet. 12) Through BMD. 13i) No. 13ii) Yes. 13iii) Just as I had explained 24 hours ago. 14) No one can predict or foretell that with certainty. 15) It all depends on what kind of stratagem India applies. 16) What’s so surprising? Didn’t Japan possess a vast military-industrial complex since the early pasrt of the 20th century?

    To SANTOSH KUMAR SHARMA: 1) Those are all part of China’s border surveillance system, whose images I had uploaded in the previous thread & here they are:

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0FHGkut68k4/XuLM4tt1zGI/AAAAAAAATf4/IaGzBN-_Pt0HMpqL7upbpDbhrQVjFcpWwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Tianhe%2BDefense%2BBS08%2BSmartGuard-2.jpg

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yLRI7RkKqHY/XuLM7IL4gXI/AAAAAAAATf8/LzwLe4Btr3YRoCXlgEj06rVObeK_fWdrQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Tianhe%2BDefense%2BBS08%2BSmartGuard-3.jpg

    They all came up along the LAC between 2009 & 2013.

    2) Because China being a revisionist power, does not respect any of the legacy treaties that Imperial China had inked with its neighbours. This should have become evident to India back in 1956 itself. 3 & 4) No, there will not be any kinetic operations this time as well, because if they do, China will at best arrive at a stalemate & not a decisive victory. But this will change in the years ahead if India continues to procveed at a snail’s pace in terms of military force modernisation as I’ve explained above to SATYAKI.

    To BROWN DESI: Changing ground realities require changing assessments. Nothing stays constant. India in theory lost Ladakh back in 2009 itself because when China openly stated thast it did not recognise Ladakh to be a part of India, no denials or rebuttals were issued by India & even till this day India has not yet issued any statement rejecting China’s claim. This matters seem to be glossed over by most Indians perhaps due to their lack of attention to detail or their short memories or lack of sound common-sense. So, yes, India first lost not the battle back in 1993 & again in 1996 when she failed to make China agree on a unitary LAC with a defined perimeter (like the LoC had been subjected to in 1972); and she lost the war in 2009 soon after China declared that the LAC’s length was only 2,000km-long. This bitter truth is extremely hard to digest by most Indian commentators, especially the retired military veterans, and hence this issue never gets debated, explained or even mentioned during the all the televised debates & talk-shows that have been broadcast since the past 1 month. Everyone therefore is yet again missing the woods for the trees by going into a tizzy about PP-14, PP-15, PP-17A & between Fingers 4 & 8!!!

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  66. Events over the past 24 hours have shown the IA undertaking a major build-up of its deployed formations in both southeast Himachal Pradesh & northern Uttarkhand. This is highly indicative of 2 developments:

    1) While China is making all the right noises about de-escalation (inen withdrawing back by a few kilometres), it has been resorting to delaying tactics about disengagement (meaning its forward-deployed forces initiating the process of going back to their peacetime locations).

    2) The Indian riposte in turn has been to initiate a build-up to signal that if the PLAGF forces do not dis-engage, then the IA will be forced to consider a tactical offensive solution under which its forces would cross the LAC from Himachal Pradesh eastwards towards Sarang, and from Uttarkhand toward Tholing (see this map: https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9pf-fYCTE3M/XuLlO1Sr17I/AAAAAAAATgI/a4sqUdMFXpsshlhx5ighc-_hxxLX9CAMACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Northern%2BUttarkhand.jpg)

    Interesting debates About India-Taiwan Cooperation:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3cItJP8ns4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WytxQ0sSgyE

    ISIS Khorasan Files: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9s1hRVFR0t0
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhuKjaXMbCw

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  67. Dear Prasun Da,

    I still remember when I first started following your blog in 2009-10. There was lot of optimism to modernise forces with Caeser MGS, M777, 60+ Apaches, Rafale jets, 4G communication bases F-INSAS, LPDs etc but nothing of it fruitify. Useless scandals of 2G and Coal allotment put UPA-II disarray and less one say is better about current dispensation is better. They seems to have got all properties wrong. In last 6 years I saw nothing except grand ideas, useless big acronyms and pathetic implementation and administration but perhaps we deserve it. Even today so called TV anchors, strategists are busy discussing Blackout in Pakistan or Hindu/Muslim rather than focusing on situation on LAC or better how to take country forward, fixing accountability of Babus/Netas and changing mindset of masses.

    Warm Regards,
    Pawan

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  68. Dear Prasun Da,

    Just forgot to mention that I heard from some great spiritual Guru that Tholing Math in Tholing was once considered as original Badrinath and that great exchange of ideas among Yogis and Buddhists of Tibets use to happens there as recently as 1960-70s when borders were porous.

    Thanks

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  69. Prasunda,

    1) Dr. Saraswat's slides showed an Agni-5 and an A-6. The A-6 shown there seemed to be shorter with a greater diameter than A-5. Has this program been replaced by the definitive version of the A-5 ?

    2) Was the recent A-5 stage 3 test for the definitive version of the A-5 ?

    Ashwatthama

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  70. Hello Prasun, going through your comments on having lost Ladakh; two thoughts from my end; first PO J&K was sold out in 1948 and the thought of regaining is getting the right attention now and for Modi 3.0 to realize, it is required. Second, Aksai chin (sold after independence) is also claimed to be regained. I believe, this will also happen in future. Generally, we Indians have lethargic attitude and expect a super hero or avatara purusha to come save us. In addition, regaining parts of Peshawar and the Gandhar region will re-usher golden period to open land trade to slav regions along with routes through Ladakh.
    Thanks, Ganesh

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  71. Dear Prasun,

    No Ending Libyan War
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1_IJyJeCgk

    Who is going to control Libya. Turkey led Islamic Block Vs UAE led Secular Block.
    Once turkey controls the Libya, Whole Mediterranean will fall under Turkey.

    And the Results will be

    a) Muslim Brotherhood will become strong .
    b) All Arab countries will revolt which destabilizes the region.
    c) Turkey will become de facto Leader of Islamic World.
    d) Turkey will invite China to start drilling Oil fields in Mediterranean.
    e) Turkey will control the Gateway to Europe and Asia.
    f) Morally Pakistan military will become more stronger.

    Now the Question is

    1. Why India is not covertly supporting UAE.
    2. Is India going to sit in the fence and try to escape from taking sides.

    Please comment.

    Thanks & Regards
    Senthil Kumar

    ReplyDelete
  72. To PAWAN: VMT. Indeed, Tholing Muth was one among the several places of religious value, stretching from Tashigang in today’s HP all the way up to Gartuk & then further eastwards, i.e. all the way along the Kailas mountain range. Not many people know that the historic kingdoms of Ladakhis comprised present-day Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh & Uttarkhand. And belowe are 2 other historical factoids about which practically no one talks about nowadays:

    One important fact that is generally ignored is that Maharaja Hari Singh’s Instrument of Accession referred to him as “Shriman Inder Mahinder Rajrajeswar Maharajadhiraj Shri Hari Singhji, Jammu & Kashmir Naresh Tatha Tibbet adi Deshadhipati”. That is, he asserted that he is not just the ruler of Jammu & Kashmir but also of the areas of eastern Ladakh including Aksai Chin as well as the territory he controlled inside Tibet. Accordingly, J & K’s territory included jurisdiction over Minser (Menser) estate, which consisted of a cluster of villages located 296 kilometres deep inside Chinese territory at the foot of the holy Mount Kailash on the bank of Manasarovar Lake.
    https://idsa.in/policybrief/resituating-menser-darchen-labrang-in-boundary-negotiations-china-pstobdan-160218

    Barely two months after independence, Nehru was apparently shocked to receive two telegrams from the Tibetan Government in Lhasa asking India to return the (lost) territories of Tibet. One of these, dated October 16, 1947 and forwarded through the Indian Mission in Lhasa, sought the return of territories "such as Sayul and Walong and in direction of Pemakoe, Lonag, Lapa, Mon, Bhutan, Sikkim, Darjeeling and others on this side of river Ganges and Lowo, Ladakh etc. up to boundary of Yarkhim." Nehru was stunned by these Tibetan demands but concealed them from Parliament. He seemingly rejected the Tibetan claim and instead advised Lhasa to maintain the status quo until new agreements can be reached. This most preposterous claim by the Tibetans, which was fraught with incalculable consequences for India, is mentioned in the then Intelligence Bureau Chief B.N. Mullick’s book My Years with Nehru–the Chinese Betrayal. Mullick characterised it as an “ill-advised claim” by the Tibetan authority. Interestingly, neither did Lhasa accept independent India’s call for ratifying the 1914 Simla Convention and the McMahon Line Treaty nor was it willing to send an official delegation to attend India’s Independence celebration in 1947. Perhaps, it was this Tibetan inanity that prompted Nehru to issue a clarification on December 6, 1950 that “he was not interested in challenging China’s suzerainty over it.”
    https://idsa.in/system/files/policybrief/pb-resituating-menser-darch-boundary-pstobdan-160218.pdf

    To ASHWATTHAMA: 1) That was the SLBM variant of A-5. 2) Yes, but all 3 stages will have fuel tanks & nozzles built with composites-based materials for weight-saving, similar to what China has achieved for its DF-31A ICBM & JL-2 SLBM.

    To GANESH: VMT. To add to what is publicly well-know to have been ‘lost’, here are 2 more examples of what was ‘surrendered’:

    https://idsa.in/policybrief/resituating-menser-darchen-labrang-in-boundary-negotiations-china-pstobdan-160218

    ReplyDelete
  73. To PAWAN: कैलाश पर्वत के इन रहस्यों से चीनी वैज्ञानिक परेशान क्यों हैं?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPJHWsCTahY
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwAG-y0sTjc
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuK2v9hLT24
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95aGhTfDXec
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTr2JEiodvY
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCQWULaRvYI

    ReplyDelete
  74. Sir,reading your response to Satyaki would make the blood of most Indians boil.
    1)According to your estimates,how much money would it cost to procure all the necessary items(fighter jets,artillery,choppers,submarines,AEW & CS,MRTT,ISTR,UAV,etc) to modernize India's Armed forces?Would be upwards of 200 billion I think.If so,do we have the financial capacity to make all these purchases(especially those in your response to Satyaki like Choppers and AEW & CS,etc)within the next 3-4 years?
    2)More importantly,how can we make the brain dead netas(who only care about winning elections) realize the importance of spending this money and purchasing these necessary items?It makes me feel so helpless that we can't convey the importance of these purchases to them.At this rate,we might as well just give up now instead of suffering a humiliating defeat a few years down a line since these netas just don't seem to realize.Sometimes,I think that democracy is holding back India's progress.They don't take decisions that are in India's interests because they feel that it might impact their chance of winning the next election.These netas spend tons of money giving freebies(feeding the people instead of giving them the capacity to feed themselves) just to win elections instead of using this money to secure the defence of our country.It took so many years to just to pass long overdue reforms like GST and the APMC and Bankruptcy reforms.China is a country that stifles the freedom of expression of its citizens but its leaders are able to pass much needed reforms much quicker(no election or parliament numbers to worry about) and as a result,China has a much larger economy compared to India.Everything happens so slowly in this country.Nothing on time.Absolutely nothing.Good for nothing oafs in the political class and bureaucracy and a dumb electorate.I am a young person and I might start an import-export business in a couple of years.Sometimes,I feel that I should leave this country and move to another country like Japan(my most favourite)or some other place a few years down the line because I don't see this country ever becoming developed.It has loads of potential but it also has politicians and bureaucrats who make it tough for everyone and do mere sloganeering instead of actual reforms.Looking at these politicians,it feels as though we should just give up now instead of suffering a humiliating defeat to China a few years down the line because I just don't think that these netas will make these emergency purchases and reforms in the next 4-5 years.I am so sorry for this long rant but after seeing your response to Satyaki,I felt very frustrated and just had to vent to my anger.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Dear Prasun Da,

    Thanks for amazing video links.

    I was fortunate enough to complete Kailash Yatra last year. If you ignore mundane human activities around that area, there is certainly something extra-ordinary happening there. Most of us have associated some hostile connotation with the word "ET" but I believe that they are certainly beings of higher knowledge who are much more evolved than humans and Mount Kailash/surrounding seems to be their favourite place. They are either actively working to see that we evolve further or at least those among us who have yearning and sincerity to explore beyond mundane are nudged and guided to towards such wisdom.

    Thanks & Regards,
    Pawan

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  76. Dear prasun da,
    Can you give us some insights into the capabilities of NTRO. As we all knows its creation was of the aftermath of kargil intelligence failure, now its seems to be the repitition of history at the eastern borders also. Does the proposed cyber command oversees its operation like USA did or is it independent as other intelligence agencies . If the latter is the case, does it will create the duplication of assets and inter organisatiinal rivalries? Can you share us your valuable thoughts regarding india's intelligence reforms as it is neglected by most of the others.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Sir, this thread is becoming both boon and bane for the current Govt at the center.
    Mr. Modi needs to play his cards judiciously to decimate the opposition for a very long time if not permanently.

    To be frank, I am not at all surprised at your recent scary analysis of Indian leadership regarding putting important things under the carpet and showing complete incompetence(A benefit of following your blog for close to a decade). India certainly cannot match the speed of modernization with that of PRC including the decision making process. So the only way to fill the gap or I would rather say to maintain the existing gap is to go for the immediate imported solutions which will break the back of the economy if sound common sense is not applied. Now, what to do? Simply disregard the populist mindset and go full steam with all the reforms?

    It seems Modi govt forgot about the existence of a word called "REFORM".

    Kya din dekhene ko milraha Sir, even Im-the-Dim is giving a lecture on how to take care of the poor through the Ehsaas program to India.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Prasun Da thanks for the HT link you have shared, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-has-largest-most-experienced-mountain-army-in-the-world-says-chinese-military-expert/story-4eR8hDrrshV7j59OHvfIYO.html, a. does not the fact severely dents the moral of PLA, which is shown as 10 feet tall by the Chinese media, or is it a psychological campaign from there part ?

    b. What Li Keqiang the Chinese Premiere to the state council is up to ? Does he planning to secure his political rehabilitation in the democratic part of China, at the time of break up of PRC ? Please check the following link of the epoch times , https://youtu.be/C4AeElP_Z6k, ( 4: 00 to 10: 00) and then again in the same link, from 10: 00 to 16:00, and read with WION's assessment, https://youtu.be/UppZ96i1I5k, is it correct to presume that a. PLA is not a fighting force since it is an ideologically indoctrinated army mostly made up of poor rural chinese youth lacking proper education as being conscript. b. Though armed with the state of art equipments, poor training, lack of fighting experience, civilian oversight, leadership problem political brainwashing, involvement in suppressing political unrest and lastly rampart corruption (where even there are instances of PLA involved in property business) made the army scared of armed conflict, which was evident in abandoning of its capture comrades in the hand of ITBP jawans in recent border clash as well as fleeing and abandoning equipments during peace keeping mission in Africa, it is now very difficult for the CCP to use this force effectively for its survival ?

    C. It is really astonishing that till no action being taken against the head of WHO, which seems reduced himself to lower than Clown, by appointing, the wife of the Chinese president as it's brand ambassador ?

    D. In the event of the emergency Force modernisation, to equip IA with MGS (as PLA is doing so), is there a possibility that a foreign supplier may be selected with a Govt to govt deal for procurement of the same off the shelf in limited quantity and the rest may be made in india with an Indian partner ? Since, the current impasse continues with the unions of OFB ? However that will kill Dhanush MGS .

    E. What is your opinion about the incident Nepali Police killing Indian farmer today on the pretext of it being attacked, that in the time OLI government is leaving no stone unturned to go for confrontation with India, what will and should be India's response ?

    F. Is Pakistani army loosing Balochistan ?
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiatvnews.com/amp/news/world/pakistan-troops-forced-to-abandon-border-posts-after-balochistan-protests-turn-violent-625267

    Kindly share your views ? Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  79. To ARUN: VMT, but I have not even included the outstanding naval reqmts & if included the scenario becomes far more horrific. 1) It was never about availability of money, but rather about adopting the correct methodology of mobilising & allocating the financial resources. Let me offer 2 prime examples here:

    A) Instead of licence-building hardware like Su-30MKI at 2.5 times the cost of procuring them off-the-shelf, the GoI could have imported them off-the-shelf from Russia & then use the money saved to re-invest in HAL for quickly developing a stretched naval variant of the ALH as a twin-engined NUH, co-developing the NMRH & IL-214 MRTA with Russia & expediting the development of the single-engined LIH/RSH & the twin-engined LCH.

    B) Instead of wasting time on procuring 4 new-build LPHs, the GoI even now can quickly buy five more Trenton-classs LPDs to add to the INS Jalashwa in service, since the US holds 11 more Trenton-class LPDs in storage & each of them can be refurbished at a cost of only US$50 million. Similarly, Russia had 3 years ago inked a contract with Saudi Arabia for building quite a few Project 12700 MCMVs for the Royal Saudi Navy. Now that Saudi Arabia has since cancelled this contract, Russia already has up to seven of them half-built & is quite happy to sell them to India at a much reduced price. This will be a far better option than to buy Lerichi-class MCMVs from either Italy or South Korea.

    To ANT: The Cyber Command has nothing to do with intelligence-gathering. Instead it is responsible for carrying out offensive operations inside hostile territory, pretty much similar to what Russia had previously done in Estonia, Georgia & Ukraine.

    To DASHU: VMT. By the way, this byfar is the best explanation of the LAC standoffs that had originally begun in the year 2000:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v7s_RlNck4&t=14s

    A Former NSA Now Shedding Crocodile Tears: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INS0kDlAaO8

    Dalai Lama’s Latest Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKJFp32LjJE

    And this arsehole’s blood has started boiling only now, as if China just got into the business of grabbing India’s territory:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42_NoFxIQmk&t=68s

    To SUMANTA NAG: 1) These are the stark realities of China today:

    https://www.ntd.com/china-exports-for-may-slip-back-into-contraction-imports-worst-in-4-years_473228.html

    https://www.ntd.com/chinese-premier-40-percent-living-in-poverty_470812.html

    https://www.ntd.com/chinas-premier-admits-to-serious-economic-crisis-with-600-million-people-earning-140-a-month_471043.html

    https://www.ntd.com/rural-migrants-suffer-most-amid-chinas-unemployment-misery_469273.html

    Production of both 155mm/52-cal Dhanush-52 of OFB & Kalyani Group’s 4 x 4 155mm/39-cal MGS can easily be ramped up if production batches are shared with other manufacturers like Mahindra Defence, TATA & Punj Lloyd. Finally, open & unfenced international boundaries exist only among civilised countries possessing knowledge-based communities. This is not the case about India & Nepal & hence India should have fenced her IB with Nepal decades ago, just like China did in the 1990s.

    To AMIT BISWAS: The never-ending torrent of bullshit from the BJP’s ace in-house jester!

    ReplyDelete
  80. According to this (https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/chinese-diplomat-links-ladakh-standoff-to-scrapped-art-370-creates-a-flutter/story-Jn0zkpbBFql6pcsdfKe82K.html), China is now claiming that the Trans-Korakoram Tract & its Shaksgam Valley that were ceded by Pakistan in 1963 is now an integral part of Xinjiang. Wonder if anyone from India will highlight this as constituting a gross violation of UNSC resolution no.47 that concerns the undivided status of the princely state of Jammu & Kashmir, or will the Indian MEA choose to overlook this & pretend as if nothing new has been stated.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Thank you for your response sir.So it was never about lack of finances but about improper allocation of financial resources.

    1)How many of the much needed purchases that you listed in your response to Satyaki are on the verge of being/will be inked in the next 2-3 years(not possible this year but I'm talking about the next 2-3 years)?

    2)Let us assume that we make all these purchases and that it will take 10-15 years for all these purchases to be inducted completely.What can be done till these purchases are inducted to deter China from any misadventure?

    3)I personally come here to read about the geo politics aspects but your blog has started to spark my interest in defence matters as well.China raised a hue and cry when the THAAD was deployed in South Korea.What is so special about the THAAD that made China so nervous?I know that we are not purchasing the THAAD but would a hypothetical purchase of THAAD deter China from doing any misadventure along the LAC?


    ReplyDelete
  82. https://idrw.org/delayed-procurements-will-hurt-india-against-china/#more-229090


    It seems joydeep Ghosh is writing same things from this blog.

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  83. Prasunda why is our Air Force so incapable of pushing critical assets. Pakistan has now acquired 7 Saab AEW and 4Chinese AWACS,we have two Netra and 3AWACS,the imbalance adversely affected our air operations in the dog fights in Feb 2019,what are our plans and will be trapped in this Atmanirbhar trap

    ReplyDelete
  84. Hi Prasunji,

    1. Just read an article which stated PAF has inducted 11th AEW&CS and we have just 3 AWACS and 2 AEW&CS.

    What went wrong with our policies and decision making and procurements ?

    2. How many Mirage-3 & Mirage-5 are in service with PAF ?

    3. When would PAF retire those Mirages ?

    4. First of the F-16 bought by PAF are now almost 40 years old. Do you think those F-16 would be retired soon (may be by 2025) ?

    Thanks & Regards,
    MG6357

    ReplyDelete
  85. ahaha...Prasun Da!

    Did you see the latest tweet by "Desi Bundlebaaz"? He is going bonkers with Chinese has taken over Laddakh :D

    This man should rename himself as AJ Pagla.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Hi, I think this article has word by word copy of the deficiencies you mentioned in the comments above. How can someone copy exactly everything from here and publish by his own name.

    idrw.org/delayed-procurements-will-hurt-india-against-china/

    ReplyDelete
  87. Prasun Da, thanks for the information you have provided, however, when I simply don't buy the propaganda of the state run media of PRC regarding their economy, but at the same time, I do wonder on whether Le Kequiang the premier, would love to be instrumental behind the scenes for the dismantling of the CCP, at the time of the arrival of the same. Please share your views.

    ReplyDelete
  88. PAF has acquired the additional 3 SAAB Erieye. they are in a position to field 10 AEW platforms(6 erieye + 4 ZDK03).

    1. How does this change the Air engagement scenraio for the IAF? Do they have an advantage?
    2. What is the IAF strategy for AWACS acquisition after A-50 Phalcon and Embraer based Netra? What is stopping us to give repeat orders?

    ReplyDelete
  89. Prasun Da, there are some thoughts, pondering in my mind on which I request your views .

    A. Since, PRC is in a spot of botheration due to Covid 19 Crisis, manipulation of WHO, border disputes with nearly all of its neighbours, it is trying to put India on the same position through its vassal states but will not succeed as unlike the PRC and Pakistan Nepal still has a functional democracy, and culturally closer to India from ancient times, economically dependent upon India, a free press, and a professional army, neutral to politics and have its training in India ?

    B. Nepali Government has created a mistake by forming a committee on boundary issue after releasing the map, which will put it into a weak position at the time of talks with India.
    https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/06/13/government-move-of-forming-a-team-to-collect-evidence-on-nepal-s-boundary-runs-into-controversy

    C. While, India hardened it's position, it may well reach out to the mass of Nepal, as Indicated by the Army Chiefs comments, while the Oli Government is facing growing Public Anger for its failure to deal with Covid 19 pandemic, thus alienating Oli Government from its people.

    https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/06/13/india-notes-passage-of-constitution-amendment-bill-and-continues-to-assert-its-territorial-claim

    D. https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/06/13/prime-minister-s-advisor-reveals-expenditure-report-but-no-one-knows-where-it-came-from

    While there's public anger on the Government has led to mass protest, and anxiety fears into elite and educated Nepali citizens on end of 'Special relationship' with India, which they fear that Modi Government doesn't want to continue also, resulting in closed borders, introduction of visa, lead to discontent among the elite class and working class of Nepal,

    https://kathmandupost.com/columns/2020/06/11/is-this-the-end-of-the-special-relationship

    Failure from Oli Government, regarding the talks of the border issue and gaining any concession from India, will ultimately fracture the ruling alliance which Beijing achieved after great labor. This will cause fall of Communist Alliance in power, with population becoming hostile to it, since Nepal's economy became badly affected post lockdown, and Government incapable of handling the situation, the Anti India nationalism on which the party thrived would fade away, this coupled with madhesi problem and other issues will force Nepali politicians to compromise with India, thus waning Chinese influence which it enjoys now.

    E. Is Pakistani army losing Balochistan ? It seems that they just fled their post when a rampaging mob demolished their post.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesnownews.com/amp/international/article/pak-forces-abandon-border-posts-as-violent-protest-erupts-in-balochistan-military-buildings-torched-video/604678

    F. India seems lagging seriously behind Pakistan regarding AEW & C & AWACS capabilities, with induction of SAAB platforms and Chinese platforms, in views of present situation what the Government is doing to address the issue at an earliest ?


    Kindly share your views on the above. Thanks in advance.


    ReplyDelete
  90. Prasunda,

    1) The likes of Ajai Shukla continue to insist on the PLA having established itself in Galwan Valley and Hot Springs on our side of the LAC when all concrete evidence shows otherwise. Should they not face some penalty for propagating fake news ?

    2) Regarding Dr. Saraswat's slides, besides the A-5 and the A-6, there was a different, unnamed SLBM with a 6000+ km range shown. If the A-6 as shown in those slides is the SLBM version of A-5, do we have 2 similar SLBM projects? Or has one of these superceded the other ?

    Satyaki

    ReplyDelete
  91. To ARUN: 1) That depends on the priorities of each of the 3 armed services & how each of them restructures & reorientates. 2) The options are discussed here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8IJQ4EO7kvM&t=59s

    3) China feels that its IRBMs & MRBMs deployed in northeastern China can be shot down by the THAAD.

    To PARVESH & BRADSHAW: LoLz! I guess he is becoming more enterprising!

    To MANAS: Because India’s decision-makers have no idea about long-term planning as the electoral system in the country guarantees only a five-year term in office & this also prevents the creation of national consensus on such ciritcal issues that require long-term solutions.

    To MG6357: 1) That was known since 2017 itself. Do read this:

    https://defpost.com/pakistan-to-acquire-three-new-saab-2000-erieye-aewc-aircraft/

    2, 3 & 4) Do read the thread of EX GAGAN SHAKTI 2018 in which the numbers are mentioned.

    To BLACK RAVEN & BUDDHA: Folks sitting in the NCR & speculating in support of their own perceptions of how the world ought to be. The ground-realities can be revealed & explained only by those who know what they have been & are all about, like this assessment:

    https://www.vifindia.org/article/2020/june/10/india-china-standoff-along-the-lac-challenges-and-opportunities

    To SUMANTA NAG: In the 12st century, it is impossible to have a sustainabvle model for a one-party totalitarian dictatorship. North Korea can last for as long as it stays as a parasite drawing sustenance from China, but from which country can China draw sustenance from? Also, notice that China has still not allowed its citizens to go abroad as tourists, since it is evident that the moment such travels are allowed, millions will try every means possible to flee China & seek political asylum abroad. Regarding Nepal, it must be understood that relations between countries can’t rely on emotion & sentiments. Only national interests dictate what & how those relations ought to be. India’s ‘netas’ were therefore DEAD-WRONG to assume since 2014 that playing the religious/cultural cards with Nepal will earn the goodwill of Kathmandu.

    To RAM BHARADWAJ: The procurement was announced way back in 2017. For the IAF, this will be a target-rich environment, especially after the IAF-specific S-400 LR-SAMs start arriving & bei8ng deployed as AEW & CS Killers.

    To BUDDHA: For your weekend viewing: Alien Highway Season-1:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY7rQw3_WR4
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUFBcBmT3JE
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zgq_xfq9Ed0
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqN5pfUsVLQ
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZGY4ZtUhWs
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYKIVa-6g7Y
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0b_HufdDhs

    To AMIT BISWAS: Martlet Lightweight Multirole Missile:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDjvc2r02V4

    After watching this video, the IN will issue an additional reqmt for such missiles to arm the projected NUH & perhaps even its existing shipborne helicopters & principal surface combatants!

    ReplyDelete
  92. And here’s another prime example of the ‘desi patrakaars’ having short memories & not contextualising the issue of border infrastructure development:

    https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/the-new-indian-road-to-lipu-lekh-nepals-protests-and-the-strategic-importance-of-the-area-6413914/

    This is what should have been written: In late 1981 the then Chief of the Army Staff, Gen K V Krishna Rao (appointed on June 1, 1981, and served in that capacity till July 1983) presented to the then PM of India, Mrs Indira Gandhi, a strategic military infrastructure development plan—codenamed OP FALCON—which was immediately approved by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and which Beijing took notice of. OP FALCON called for converting the patchy forward presence of the IA along what is the present-day LAC into a heavy forward deployment in an arc-like disposition starting from Turtok and Shyok in Ladakh all the way to the India-Tibet-Myanmar tri-junction. Arunachal Pradesh, North Sikkim and the trans-Ladakh Range were to receive special attention. The deployment was to be undertaken over a 15-year period in which the IA’s forward build-ups would keep pace with infrastructure development along with viable lines of communications. The only political term of reference given was to ensure that in a future war with China, Tawang must not fall again as it did in 1962. Regarding the operational stance, the IA HQ and its Eastern Command HQ felt that the IA’s Divisional formations should be sited in a manner based on the lessons of the 1962 Sino-India war that were learnt at great costs. Instead of going through the sterile debate of holding the Se La and Bomdi La lines in strength, the whole mass of deployed formations was to be pushed forward, with Tawang being the centre-of-gravity for the Kameng District, and Walong for the Lohit District. It was this very stance that was adopted by Army HQ in 1986 during the Sumdorong Chu crisis, and till this day it remains the operational stance. Se La is the crucial link between Tawang and Bomdila. For two successive summers Indian forces would go up to the Hathung La ridge to set up tents and return in the winter.

    Cont'd below...

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  93. In June 1986 the Indian soldiers received a rude awakening when they returned to Hathung La to find out that PLA-BDR. soldiers had already built semi-permanent structures in the territory around Hathung La and these were later fortified by the construction of a helipad. After repeated dismissals of “official protests” lodged by India, the IA’s COAS Gen Sundarji, with typical panache, airlifted an entire Infantry brigade of 5 Mountain Division to Zimithang; a landing area close to Sumdorong Chu. The positions occupied by this Brigade overlooked the Sumdorong Chu valley along with the Hathung La and Langor La ridges. For the first time since its’ humiliating retreat from these pastures, India held Hathung La. China moved in 20,000 troops from its 53 GA in Chengdu and the 13 GA in Lanzhou by early 1987 along with heavy artillery and helicopters. By early April 1987, it had moved 8 Divisions to eastern Tibet. Unfortunately, in November 1988, on the eve of the then Indian PM Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Beijing, OP FALCON was unceremoniously abandoned to appease China. Between then and 2014, New Delhi dithered on providing the quantum of support to OP FALCON without angering China. Ironically, as New Delhi remained comatose, Beijing made full use of these years to construct excellent border domination-specific military infrastructure all along the disputed LAC. On paper, though, OP FALCON remains in effect but without any government notification. Fatalities and other injuries, once any OP is notified, receive a higher compensation. But OP FALCON has been shot down by MoD for the past 32 years. A soldier passing away in Siachen (OP Meghdoot) is labelled a battle casualty and the family is entitled to a higher payout whereas a soldier passing away in the treacherous terrain in Western Ladakh, Arunachal and Sikkim is not entitled to the same. The Govt of India’s reluctance in angering China by notifying OP FALCON is thus quite evident.

    PLA’s 37 Academic Institutions: https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CASI/documents/Research/Other%20topics/CASI%20Academic%20Institutions%20Encyclopedia%202020-06-10%20web%20final.pdf?ver=2020-06-11-140140-450

    ReplyDelete
  94. Dada,

    VMT for your clarifications. I have some more queries though. Can you please shed some light?

    1. What India learnt from HSTDV project?

    2. ZIRCON being a Russian missile, will Russia transfer completely Scramjet Engine technology and technology behind materials that can withstand extremely high temperatures and friction arising out of Mach 5+ speed?

    3. Can you share the URL of the blog you have written on future Indigenous MBT please?

    4. You mentioned there will be Ground Launched Ballistic Missile having longer range than AGNI-5 which will be definitive version of Agni-5. I couldn't get the statement. Can you elaborate kindly?

    5. Can you please let me know statuses of upcoming K series missiles? As per media report 3500 KM K4 is undergoing development trials but no information is available on K5 (5000 KM) and K6 (6000KM).

    6. Can you share the URL of the blog you have written on next generation Indian SSBN (subsequent to Arihant series)?

    7. Why is IAF not planning to procure LRAAM? Is LRAAM not a useful weapon system considering Indian threat perception?

    8. You mentioned ATAGS will be procured by the IA for operations in the plains & highlands. Will a MGS based on ATAGS not be useful? Something in line with Chinese PCL 181.

    9. Why will Dhanush 155*52 MGS not be deployed in mountains as you mentioned Dhanush 155*52 MGS will be meant for plains and Kalyani 155*39 MGS earmarked for hill areas.

    10. How can Indian Armed Forces foil direct fire-support weapons like shoulder-carried LP D-50 flamethrowers and shoulder-launched ‘Hidden Blade’ thermobaric missiles?

    11. You mentioned IN is not procuring any LHD/LPD/LPH. Are they not force multiplier System for operational context of IN?

    12. Is DRDO working on missile with EMP generating warheads?

    13. Is DRDO BMD mature enough to thwart Chinese IRBM, MRBM with EMP generating warheads?

    ReplyDelete
  95. Presunda,

    After watching few UTUBE presentation of Mr Sawhney I am quite confused. It seems he is correct and really a thorough overhauling of the system need to be done. Suggesting few ,
    1. There should be a separate Indian Defence Service for babus of MOD and only those officers are retired from military as SSC ( Short Service Commission ) officer should be allowed to appear at the examination. Commissioned time must be considered for seniority.
    2. DRDO must be under PMO.
    3. BHEL and ABB must be invited for jet engine research.
    4. Diesel Engine Works ( DLW ) Varanasi must be invited for high-power tank engine research and gear box ( shanti gear ) research. At first we should decide what prime mover we should use for tank 1. If it's gasturbine then BHEL + ABB + DRDO + IIT Madras. And if it's internal combustion engine then Kirloskar + DLW + Avadi research department. DLW makes very high quality 2 stroke engine.
    5. We must include CSIR's Central Glass and Ceramic Research Institute and ITT kharagpur and IIT Bombay for Navy's Lithum Ion battery reserch for submarine.
    6. Visuvious + IIT Kharagpur for solving the pertaining problem of boiler refractory of INS Vikramaditya. They are world leader.
    7. Ramform ( Kindly Google Ramform design ) design for smaller corvette. Deck area will be much larger and stability will be very high.
    These are few were coming into my mind.
    Best regards

    ReplyDelete
  96. Prasunda
    Past mistakes aside, Op FALCON can be operationalized again as I hope that you mean post 2014, border infra is being developed. But PRC needs to be pushed back from India'sborders (LAC). That doesn't just mean this securing of own territory by area dominance but liberating areas of Tibet AND areas of Eastern Turkestan (Xinjiang). That will require allies, break up or regime change in PRC & significant acquisition of airlift & vertical envelopment capacities. Different things, but that means huge coordinated efforts on all 3 fronts with West (US, Japan) & Russian support. Not just POK & Aksai Chin but also Ngari, Kailas Mansarovar & certain areas of Xinjiang/ Eastern Turkestan to secure India & it's traditional sphere as well as connectivity with Russia & CARs for North-South Corridor.

    That also obviously means breakup of Pakistan with new buffer states & a Khalistan within Indian Constitution but made up of territory from Pak / West Punjab. The time to do all this is the first part of this decade from now till 2024.

    If India can't, it's time to even close borders with Nepal, forget driving out OLI AND prepare to lose Kashmir/Ladakh to joint PRC Pak military operations by 2030.

    The window to either secure India & long term interests in South Asia or prepare to lose Indian control & be isolated or a PRC captive market is NOW. India needs help & cooperation from like minded allies for this. Five years later will be TOO LATE

    ReplyDelete
  97. Prasun sir,

    1) PAF has ordered 12 AWACS so far - 8 from Saab and 4 Chinese. One Saab aircraft was destroyed so total 11 demain am i right?

    2) Is it true that IAF is unimpressed with loitering time of Phalcon AWACs and that it is unable to stay airborne for long enough to meet operational requirement?

    3) When will 2 additional Phalcon AWACS arrive?

    4) When will DRDO handover 3rd Netra AEW&CS to IAF? Or will it stay with DRDO as testbed?

    5) When is DRDO expected to complete development work on A330 based AWACS system? And after that how long will the integration process take?

    6) Is Raytheon helping DRDO in indegenous ISTAR program? Livefist had reported that Raytheon would supply 1 aurcraft directly and help in development of 4 additional systems. Is it true?

    7) When will the production and delivery of QRSAM begin? Is the testing phase complete?

    8) Why are our Barak 8 based on heavier 12×12 truck instead of lighter and more mobile 8×8 trucks like S-350 Vityaz and Azerbaijan's Barak 8?

    ReplyDelete
  98. Hello sir.I came across this very interesting article by the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center yesterday.It compares the conventional and nuclear capabilities of India and China. Here is the link https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/strategic-postures-china-and-india-visual-guide

    Here,I will only post some excerpts about the conventional capabilities.This will be 2 or 3 comments long so please bear with me

    Background

    Fueled by aggressive rhetoric from both capitals, Indian and Chinese ground forces engaged in a standoff between June and August 2017. The Doklam crisis, as it became known, stimulated introspection among officials and experts in both states about the future of their relationship. Politically, both strategic communities largely concluded that the peaceful resolution of border disputes is now less likely, forecasting more rivalry than cooperation. Militarily, Indian discussions on the strength of its military position against China in their disputed ground frontier areas have converged on the view that China holds the conventional and nuclear edge over India in this domain.1

    Based on our analysis of data on the location and capabilities of Indian and Chinese strategic forces and related military units, we conclude that this assessment of the balance of forces may be mistaken and a poor guide for Indian security and procurement policies. We recommend that instead of investing in new nuclear weapons platforms that our analysis suggests are not likely to be required to deter China, New Delhi should improve the survivability of its existing forces and fill the gap in global arms control leadership with an initiative on restraint and transparency.
    Our analysis focuses on strategic military strike concentrations as they are postured against one other, excluding border patrol forces, as of January 2018. This makes it possible to examine the strengths and weaknesses of each side’s forces.
    What does this data tell us? We assess that India has key under-appreciated conventional advantages that reduce its vulnerability to Chinese threats and attacks. India appears to have cause for greater confidence in its military position against China than is typically acknowledged in Indian debates, providing the country an opportunity for leadership in international efforts toward nuclear transparency and restraint.

    Indian strategists have not focused on this opportunity, in part because they draw pessimistic conclusions regarding China. For example, one Indian expert has observed that “India’s ground force posture and strength is not really comparable to that of China in their border regions. China has better military infrastructure, capabilities, and logistics.”2 A former commander of the Indian Army Northern and Central commands, which are tasked with defense against China, wrote during the Doklam standoff that he expected the episode to end in a barrage of Chinese missile strikes to expel Indian forces from the area and settle the dispute on Chinese terms.3
    Even India’s comparative optimists, a minority, do not sound hopeful. A retired Indian Army brigadier close to internal discussions on China policy has observed that “even as conventional asymmetry prevails, it is being largely undermined by Indian strides in infrastructural build up, force modernisation and new raisings.”

    The Sino-Indian Conventional Balance

    We now turn to the effect of conventional forces on this overall strategic balance. Our analysis suggests that India’s defense position is more secure than is sometimes argued.

    (continued in comment #2)

    ReplyDelete
  99. Hi Prasunji,

    Thank you for referring me to an insightful article on your blog. It was a long read and you had pointed out many details in it.

    http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/05/decoding-ex-gagan-shakti-2018.html

    I had follow-up questions regarding the same.

    1. Under the header "Increasing Differentials" you have mentioned that PAF tried to procure A2A & A2G missiles from USA and failed until 2018.

    Has there been any progress since then and has USA approved any PAF orders for Missiles since then ?

    If not, what are the weapon options PAF have for their F-16s ? What weapons PAF could possibly integrate for their F-16s ?

    2. You stated that PAF have about 150 F-7P/PGs and these aircrafts are marred by lack of spares supply.

    How many more years PAF will have this aircraft in service ?

    3. PAF looking for twin-engine MMRCA - possibly J-31 which China is developing.

    Do you think PAF is putting all eggs in one basket and China will take advantage of this in future ?

    4. IAF has majority aircrafts from Russia since decades. Can you make a thread on how, when & in what ways Russians had taken advantage of us ?

    Thanks & Regards,
    MG6357

    ReplyDelete
  100. Prasun,

    - Has Oli has permanently damaged the Indo-Nepalese relations?he certainly has played dirty . No party going forward in either country can ever look at it in an honest way w/o being labelled as a traitor forever rupturing the relationship..
    - This article --https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/06/navy-dhruv-spat-lets-stop-fighting-hal-test-pilot-says.html quotes a test pilot whose replies point fingers @navy..who also goes to say that the new nsqr was made to promote foreign vendors..baised views?? had it been the views of the desi patrakars , i wouldnt have brought it here
    - Will the pvt sector get any chance to be a major provider going forward apart from artillery guns &L&T in say ships/subs(that too not sure if they will be a permanent feature once the current orders dry up)? say the likes of SSS defence , punj lloyd-negev(now bought out by adani), mku-thales(F90) esp in small arms& ammo space?
    - Have the OFB made any progress in r&d ? any new products worth looking forward to?
    - Russians making official that they will have an hands off approach on the INdo-china standoff...does that signal to india that they will not be saving her back forever unless we maintain safe distance from the americans & more importantly learn to stand up ourselves
    - Just how many criminally fatal mistakes has the nehru dynasty done.. the list seems endless
    - Given the volatile & dynamic changes happening around the world.. Shouldnt India become more assertive and start influencing in its regions of interest- mid-east, asean,africa, asia-pacific nations.. one can't be like an ostrich & bury your head and hope that the changing world will not impact us ..This passive image is wot encourages the likes of wannabes like erdogan, mahathir & now Oli(of all ppl) get encouraged to be brazen with us. This very nature is wot also encourages the pakis to continue doing wot they are best at.
    -Twitter blocking anti china indian tweets when they are not even allowed to operate there .. heights of schizophrenia
    - why isn't India reach out to the erstwhile northern alliance members and rekindle it as a cushion against the talibs & other anti India proxies in Afghanistan or just create new ones..afghans by nature are not the ppl who can live as a civilized all inclusive society for long .. sooner or later they denegerate to being tribal loyalty driven groups run by warlords
    - Just why & how did Russians fall for the Khosran iskp bogey.. Now that the truth is out in the open will the russians reconsider their stance of supporting talibs ?

    -

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  101. Prasunda,

    An excellent article by Shri.Shiv Verma. https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/time-take-neighbourhood-bully

    He hits the right buttons about India's various mistakes, whacking the bully who has become India's neighbour by being a real estate robber baron by taking over 2 independent countries & the natural Rusdia-India (& China - not necessarily PRC) partnership. let’s play the game to win… for as Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw said to the Indian Military Academy passing out gentlemen cadets in 2002, “There is no place for a loser. If you lose, even your gharwali will not look at you.” That couldn’t be more true!

    Prasunda, I do believe, no better time than now to settle PRC & Pakistan, both of whom are revisionist countries

    ReplyDelete
  102. Dear Prasun,

    Thank you for replying everyone's queries on this platform. I have few questions.

    1. Last time I asked you some stupid questions regarding helicopters. You helped me understand their utilities in mountain area. My question is after Kargil war, HAL decided to develop a helicopter gunship that can perform at high altitude. Similarly Dhruv has also performed very well in Kashmir high altitude. So why can't they be used here against China?

    2. Is Modi government showing any interest to revive OP Falcon?

    3. Why did Gandhi politicians left the sovereignty of India so vulnerable that anyone can claim Indian land as their own? Is it because they prioritise their family business.

    4. Has India lost any land in Ladakh in this current Chinese transgression?

    Please enlighten me.

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  103. iIn the last para of Lt Gen (Dr) Rakesh Sharma's article at VIF 'India-China Standoff along the LAC: Challenges and Opportunities', he states:

    "It may be however necessary for the Army to consider acquisition of ‘sunrise’ capabilities of the LAC"

    - what is meant by sunrise capabilities?

    ReplyDelete
  104. Prasun,
    HAL's ALH inclusion in NUH competition
    Contrasting comments by 2 top flyers.. whoz right here????

    Pro HAL --https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/06/navy-dhruv-spat-lets-stop-fighting-hal-test-pilot-says.html
    Anti HAL-- https://www.livefistdefence.com/2020/06/the-truth-hurts-says-indian-navys-1st-dhruv-flight-commander.html

    ReplyDelete
  105. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VI4QKb8anSY
    Really this LMM looks impressive..
    Can India produce this type of multi role light weight missile for LCH HAL Rudra And LUH and light petrol boats of ICG And Navy.
    Your proposal of ships quite economical and time bound ..Hope Indian millitary planners be sincere enough to notice ...

    ReplyDelete
  106. To AD: 1) The project is still underway & many more data-points need to be acquired. 2) Yes, but that will take another 15 years just like it took that long to make most of the components for the BrahMos-1 domestically, by which time another new generation of weapons will have been developed by Russia & others. 3) http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/06/given-below-are-weblinks-of-show.html 4) The lighter the missile the greater the range due to more fuel being carried. 5) There’s nothing new to write about & all are still under development. 6) http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2012/06/games-being-played-along-indias-eastern.html 7) Which other air force in the world has acquired LRAAMs? 8) ATAGS is towed. Had it been motorised it would have been known as ATAGS-MGS. 9) Because roads in mountainous terrain have small turbing radius of the type not negotiable by 8 x 8 trucks. 10) Ready my comment of June 13, 2020 at 6:11AM. 12) Yes, the SAAW. 13) No, but the S-400 is.

    To KAUSTAV: The two links below clearly demonstrate the collusive threat of the same type that China had hatched back in February 1965:

    https://theprint.in/diplomacy/chinese-diplomat-in-pakistan-links-ladakh-standoff-to-article-370-deletes-tweet-later/441476/

    http://www.gwadarpro.com/mobile/index.php/?act=cms&op=cmsHtmlDetail&member_id=315&member_name=wechat_oEY6huLS7p_pgc-fn_SrxwUKG0OE&article_id=6232&class_id=42&from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

    Break-up of China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI2T6KHbsvg&t=19s
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmY4vYwUHLo&t=11s

    India's Non-Military Options on PoK https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paIVlen4fqg

    HH Dalai Lama’s Prominence Increases in Indian Media:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbKEbPojtXA

    Indian Turncoats & Imbeciles on J & K Issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42xF9Z5cnVE

    ReplyDelete
  107. To VARUN: 1) Yes. 2) Not true. 3) After they are ordered. 4) Already delivered to IAF. 5) By 2025. 6) Yes, as a systems integration consultant. ISTR airframe is not yet selected & only its scale-model was shown at DEFEXPO-2020. 7) Not before 2023. 8) Because there are more modules mounted on the Indian system, like power-supply system & command-n-control container.

    To ARUN: That weblink was uploaded in a thread last March. Nothing new or insightful, as far more details had been uploaded by me in several previous threads since 2013.

    To MG6357: 1) No. The PAF has no other options. 2) Another decade only. 3) The PAF has no other choice. 4) Russia NEVER took any adverse or negative advantage from India.

    To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Not at all. Just as India too produced a 1954 map showing Aksai Chin as part of India but never sent any military patrols to guard the delineated boundaries in Aksai, Nepal too will show the areas as its own in its map, but will do nothing else. 2) The truth is always somewhere in between, i.e. as I had explained earlier HAL should have committed itself to developing a IN-specific heavier & stretched NUH variant of Dhruv ALH instead of proposing the impossible, i.e. accept the existing Dhruv ALH. In addition, is it the IN’s fault that on one hand HAL showed a Coast Guard version of the Dhruv with chin-mounted Compass optronic turret in Aero India 2017 but in Aero India 2019 it showed a Dhruv LUH variant with segmented folded main rotor-blades & folding tail-boom but MINUS a chin-mounted optronic turret & the helicopter’s interior being shown in VVIP seating configuration!!! Any prospective customer will be hard-pressed to figure out whether such an exhibit is meant for a military customer, or a civilian customer. That's how stupid HAL’s marketing efforts have, are & will continue to be. And that’s also why till to date, no one can state with certainty exactly how will a fully weaponised LCH or LUH look like & when will they receive airworthiness certification from CEMILAC. All that every Tom, Dick & Harry always parrot is that both are wonderful flying machines, but not a word about their effectiveness as weaponised platforms. 3) Private-sector will become major suppliers of most types of ammunition & their fuzes in the years to come. 4) No state-owned DPSU can make any major investments in in-house R & D until they are prevented from making forced deliveries of annual financial dividends to the MoD. 5) Russia always prefers to work behind-the-scenes, just as it had done in 2017.

    To ASD: 1) LCH was reqd by the IAF to engage high-flying MALE-UAVs, and was never meant to be used for firing ATGMs. And to date, the IA has not placed any orders for the LCH. Similarly, it is the unarmed Dhruv ALH that continues to fly up to altitudes of 21,000 feet & not the Rudra helicopter-gunship. 2) No. 3) Lal Bahadur Shastri, V P Singh, P V Narasimha Rao & A B Vajpayee too made mistakes of the same magnitude. If one wants to apportion blame, then it must be done objectively, not emotionally. 4) No.

    To BHOUTIK: He is referring to the development of offensive riposte capabilities, i.e. acquiring capacities & capabilities for waging high-altitude plateau warfare, something that I had highlighted in the thread that began on March 20 this year.

    ReplyDelete

  108. Hi prasun
    teh induction nof 3 more awacs are a concern ,the s-400 is the answer , but do the awacs have enough sopisticated jamming and luring capacity to defelct the incomming s-400 round ?. I belive SAAB has equipped them with the latest EW and ecm sysytems ?.
    more over has the latest aesa radar been mounted on the awacs that nearly double the range using GAN modules?
    Is there any chance of oli of nepalindtigating indian army gurkhas to do what the sikhs nearly did of revolting in the army?
    I do belive that US will never offer the f-35 when the s-400 comes in as it would be a situation like the turks did.
    when is the first systems landing in India ?
    news report reveal thatthe s- s300 in syria shot doen many spice munitions in syria , can you explain?
    the pantsyr seems to be the wepaon. what is the cost effective ness of the pantsyr over the simpler korean bihu system . what shpould india procure?


    ReplyDelete
  109. I have looked at these two copies of the instrument of accession http://jklaw.nic.in/instrument_of_accession_of_jammu_and_kashmir_state.pdf
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_of_Accession_(Jammu_and_Kashmir)#/media/File:Kashmir_Accession_document_side_1.jpg
    None of them mention the add on you mentioned and simply states the king of J&K. Where did you get the further addition of Hari Singh's title?

    ReplyDelete
  110. Rajnath Singh yesterday : “Just wait, soon people of PoK will demand that they want to be with India and not under the rule of Pakistan, and the day this happens, a goal of our Parliament will also be accomplished,” he said.

    Just like you said sir.The conditions for the capture of PoK will be created.And this will involve the residents of PoK revolting against Pakistani occupation and they will demand liberation from Pakistan and that could/will be the moment when India steps in and liberates PoK militarily.And by "goal of our parliament",I think he is referring to the 1994 Parliament resolution in which it is stated that the whole of J&K is an integral part of India.

    Maybe this is some silly fantasy of mine but I think that this could happen next year(2021)?Why?For one,2021 will mark the 50th anniversary of the 1971 war in which Bangladesh was liberated.Also,in 1970,there was a big cyclone(biggest ever actually and it was called Bhola)that hit West Bengal and Bangladesh and I read on Twitter that India started putting out weather reports of Bangladesh in the same year.This year,there was another big cyclone that hit West Bengal and Bangladesh(called Amphan)and India started putting out weather reports of PoK this year.There was an election in Pakistan in 1970(year before liberation of Bangladesh) in which Awami League won power but was denied power and there will be an election in Gilgit Baltistan this year.Sheer coincidence or game of destiny?But it requires a trigger event(s) too Pakistan refusing to hand over power to the Awami League and/or Operation Searchlight.I wonder what that trigger event could be this time?

    ReplyDelete
  111. PKS Sir,

    As u stated earlier that there will be disintegration of Chin into many regions, but, as per the comments of our Hon'ble Raksha Mantri suggesting internal civil unrest in Gilgit Baltistan will make us achieve our Parliament's goal, can the same principle be applied to free Tibet or Xinjiang or Manchuria or Outer Mongolia? Can we help the people of above regions as we had covertly done to liberate Banladesh and to some extent the Afghan Northern Alliance? Please accept my apologies for the too far stretched imaginations as above, if it can't be implemented. I seek ur humble wisdom please.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Hi Prasun,

    I have been following your blog for 4 years, earlier you made comments about osho and socialism & communism. I could not remember which article had that comment. After watching wild wild country im curious to reread your comment about osho and socialism & communism.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  113. Prasunda,

    Any updates of Kalyani s new 155/39 Ultra Light Howitzer ? They have said internal trial is finished. Why can't our army give it a try ? Kalyani said that they can produce 200 items per year.
    Secondly, do you think it's wise for India to join OBOR ? Last year I was in China and found things we use everyday are costlier than India. Particularly anything made from pure cotton was very costly even more than double of Indian price.
    You won't believe in a road side salon I had paid 50 Yuan ( 7.5 USD ) for a haircut only. And I was not cheated , that's the rate.
    China is becoming very costly now a days. Actually Indians can make good business there if allowed to do business.
    Best regards.






    ReplyDelete
  114. Have uploaded several additional slides above to describe the situation prevailing in the late 1950s through to the 1980s.

    To RAD: That depends on what kind of seekers are available for the S-400’s LR-SAMs. As of now the new-generation Ka-band seeker has been specified. In addition, a barrage attack comprising four LR-such SAMs zeroeing in on a solitary saab 2000 AEW & CS platform can overwhelm the latter’s EW suite. The S-300P or even any existing SHORADS can shoot down any gliding PGM since the latter do not possess any integral EW suite for self-protection.

    To MILLARD KEYES: LoLz! I never mentioned anything anything about the document called Instrument of Accession of J & K. I had just quoted the ‘Instrument of Accession’. You have thus ASSUMED that there exists only one Instrument of Accession & that too about the princely State of J & K acceding to India. In reality, the Instrument of Accession that Prof P Stobdan & I are referring to is the official Announcement of the Accession to the Throne of J & K during Maharaja Hari Singh’s coronation. In political documents no titles are mentioned whereas in ceremonial documents, titles are always mentioned. Hence in the document of Instrument of Accession of J & K Into India, there are no royal titles written down for Lord Mountbatten as well.

    Bottomline: ASSUMPTION is always the mother of all fuck-ups!

    To ARUN: Road & rail transportation being expedited in Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand & J & K UT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RXCSNwlhlg

    To AKS: Everything is possible, but not for one country alone to carry them out. It requires a coalition of the willing to jointly achieve such objectives.

    To DASHU: Not at all. These are all temporary political dramas that they lose steam in the coming days & everything will be back to normal.

    To PSS: It wasn’t about communism, but rather, SEX COMMUNISM.

    To PARTHASARATHI: Fine-tuning a factory prototype takes time & hence miracles cannot be expected to happen. The 155mm/39-cal MGS has to first undergo factory-based mobility-cum-firepower trials prior to being offered to any prospective end-user for field-based user-trials. India made the right decision of not becoming a part of either OBOR or BRI.

    ReplyDelete


  115. hi prasun'
    if the PAF awacs are targetted by us using s-400 who they fly usualy at 30,000 ft, can they fly at a lower altitude like 10,000 ft and still acquire IAF fighter which fly at 10,000 ft so as to have enpugh time to dive back to low altitiude that denies the s-400 radar conitinous radar track using the curve of the earth.?
    The radar horizon calc seems to be 450 km when both ac are at 3000 mtrs?
    where do you think the s-400 will be positioned ? though there is talkof placing it near the china border , what about kashmir area where the likely hood of another strike by the IAF is likely given that pak will send terrors and invite a retaliation.
    AN IAF officer was clear that given the assymeteries, the naval strike would be te best option for a retaliatory attack that could take out half the pak navy?
    what is the feasability on those lines given that we can have air cover by su-30 and others to protect the naval assets from airborne retalliation? just like the raid on karachi in 1972 ?

    ReplyDelete

  116. hi prasun
    can you give some info on the rudram stand off cruise muissile whose pics have been depicted on MWF on the belly center line ?

    ReplyDelete
  117. Prasunda,

    The size of SSBNs are increasing but the number of missiles tubes are reduced & number of tubes are either for ballast (or other purposes UCAV, spl.forces, etc.) & Powerful electric drives. Does this indicate changing paradigms with more active use of SSBNs rather than just hiding with pride for a cataclysmic MAD?! Could u elaborate? https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2020/june/8588-general-dynamics-receives-contract-to-produce-colombia-class-and-dreadnought-class-ballistic-missile-submarines.html

    ReplyDelete
  118. During the ongoing de-escalation process in Galwan Valley, a violent face-off took place yesterday night with casualties. Loss of lives on the Indian side includes an officer, two soldiers. Senior military officials of the two sides are currently meeting to defuse tension.

    And an excellent wake-up call for several Indians who till this day cannot tell the difference between a frontier, a border & an international boundary. They also refuse to master geography & consequently are not able to make sense of GoogleEarth imagery!!!

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/columns/breaking-the-logjam-on-the-northern-border/story-SmoSbJfuwiylNZlhhkit7H.html

    https://theprint.in/science/why-indian-space-start-ups-are-feeling-forced-to-set-up-base-abroad/441982/

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  119. Enough is enough.India has been a soft state for too long.Always having a defensive mindset .Apart from a few exceptions,we have been more reactive than proactive.But that should no longer be the case.If I was making the decisions,I would have given the Army the green light to capture the Chumbi Valley(where I believe we have an advantage).If India's political leadership has any sense,it will make all the purchases that you listed on an urgent basis and become a full fledged member of the Allied powers like the US.But will the political leadership do that?If they don't,the motorbike exhaust pipe that you thought should be shoved up the behind of the bandalbaaz should be shoved up their behinds.

    ReplyDelete
  120. So ultimately Indians are getting bloody nose..And chinese aggression going on...
    A limited border war impending or Indian govt will back track and accept chinese supremacy..

    ReplyDelete
  121. Dada,

    1. https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/nepal-india-ties-shouldnt-deteriorate-china-no-substitute-to-india-senior-nepali-economist/1991994/

    Is this beginning of u-turn of Nepal?

    2. How many Chinese soldiers got killed? As per media reports death toll is ostensibly between 3 to 5 whilst for us it's 3. Would the count of deceased Chinese soldiers stand at around 10 to 12, moral victory would be ours?

    3. Rana Ayub tweeted like a official Chinese media house, what a shame.

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  122. Prasun sir, we remained silent when they occupied our territory. We remained silent when they arm Pakistan with conventional and nuclear weapons. We remained silent on CPEC which blatant disregard of sovereignity. We remained silent when they support insurgent groups in NE India. But now the Hans have crossed the line. Time has come to stand up to these bloody Communist state.

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  123. Prasun da,
    What's your take on this entire scuffle with the chinese....where are we heading?

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  124. This was bound to happen , again just like balakot aftermath without clear rules of engagement wetwe suffered casualties..

    govt and army top brass is running like clueless headless chicken.while the china is busy in salami slicing pay ops by releasing statement after statement.

    So now I am expecting the govt to sweep this under carpet to make us believe nothing has happened

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  125. Dear Prasun,

    I feel that a high intensity limited war is imminent. What's your say? I feel that India must attack now considering the situation now. As USA and EU will support India along with Australia. What's your say?

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  126. Prasun Da,

    Indian Army's official statement states that 20 Indian soldiers were killed by the PLA

    https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/1272936077192380417?s=20

    No concrete data available on the number of PLA soldiers killed in action. However, some individuals, organizations loyal to the Indian government is putting that figure at 43.

    https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1272927922177765376?s=20

    I suspect this is to calm the public in India by suggesting that Indian Army inflicted more casualties on China. Although PLA casualty figure have not been verified.

    You'll probably have a better, more logical explanation. Looking forward.

    Regards,

    VIKRAM

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  127. As I am writing this, India lost 20+ soldiers in Ladakh against China. There is some unconfirmed report that says more than 40+ soldiers were missing or captured by PLA.

    What I do not understand why there was no medical facility available to the frontline soldiers? China has prepared for this and they evacuated their soldiers by helicopter. And Indian soldiers were frozen to death? Unbelievable!

    PM Modi is not aggressive and not acting against China. Not only that, but his govt is also awarding Chinese companies. Recently STEC got a contract for the Delhi-Meerat railway tunnel. This is ridiculous! Why is Modi sympathetic towards China?
    Thanks

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  128. Prasun Da it appears that apart from total twenty soldiers martyred from the Indian side (17 soldiers succumbed to their injuries in the sub zero temperature scuffle), the Chinese also suffered 43 casualties as per the interception.

    It also seems that the Indian Army has removed an out post created by the Chinese.

    Chinese though admitted the casualties, kept mum on the numbers, and as usual played victim also.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.india.com/news/world/ladakh-clashes-significant-casualties-on-chinese-side-says-beijings-official-mouthpiece-4059643/amp/

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ndtv.com/india-news/20-soldiers-killed-in-face-off-with-chinese-troops-in-ladakh-sources-2247351%3famp=1&akamai-rum=off

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ANI/status/1272927922177765376?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

    Since, the Russia is to meet both India and China in the Video conference, (as you predicted rightly with Russian intervention ) with the Bear seems to be pissed at Dragon's theatrics, and present events,

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-delhi-beijing-border-stand-off-on-agenda-in-russia-india-and-china-s-virtual-meet/story-SfuYcYry9269iUY4BOGDJL_amp.html

    Does not seems that Bejing is trying to play a spoilsport ?

    Also, KP Oli government is facing mass protest in Nepal which has gathered momentum may also soften the Nepal's stance on Borders.

    Kindly share your views on the above.

    Thanks in advance.



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  129. To KAUSTAV: As far as futuristic SSBNs go, they will be carrying lesser SLBMs but greater nu,ber of MIRVs. The save space will be used for compartments. Cells capable of launching a variety of unwater ROVs & autonomous underwater vehicles for persistent surveillance & situational awareness.

    To RAD: It is not Rudram, but a SCALP-type ALCM or perhaps even the SCALP itself. Had explained it all in the thread dealing with the MWF.

    To JUST_CURIOUS: 5) he was referring to turbofans meant for ALCMs & SLCMs & had even shown a scale-model of such a turbofan at DEFEXPO-2020.

    ReplyDelete
  130. To ARUN, BUDDHA, JUST_CURIOUS, AD, PRATAP, ASHISH, AMIT BISWAS, ASD, RAT, BUDDHA, GAURAV & VIKRAM GUHA: The clashes between the IA & PLA-BDR that took place 48 hours ago clearly demonstrate the following:

    1) Casualties on both sides will be roughly equal BECAUSE of the kind of terrain that they took place on. The ridgeline is sloping & comprises lots of loose stones & rock-blocks that makes it difficult to get a firm grip on the ground. In addition, such hand-to-hand fighting is bound to result in several personnel from both sides slipping & falling into the river below the valley & this is what caused most of ther losses of life on both sides.

    2) It needs to be noted that the PLA-BDR personnel from Xinjiang are all full-time peasants & part-time soldiers & hence they will have ZERO knowledge about concepts like rules of engagement (RoE), Geneva Convention etc etc. That explains their barbaric behavious & attitudes.

    3) The clashes are also indicative of the severe lack of discipline among such conscripts & consequently, their morale is also quite low.

    4) The Indian version of events clearly demonstrates that the field-level units of the PLA-BDR either did not receive their orders for de-escalation, or were unwilling to obey any such orders. This in turn is reflective of the poor state of command-n-control within the involved PLA-BDR units.

    5) Globally, this will cast the PLA in a very bad light & will expose it as an undisciplined institution. 6) This is also the malaise within the larger PLAGF & hence it will suffer from very low morale when it comes to fighting real battles. And it is for this reason that President Xi Jinping, ever since he assumed office in 2013, has constantly been calling for the PLA to improve its battle readiness & war preparedness, but this seems to be falling on deaf ears.

    6) For ther far more disciplined IA, the time has come for the Govt of India to issue ASAP a new set of RoE that authorises the use of intimidatory firepower at the tactical-level, since this is exactly what will scare the living daylights out of an undisciplined peasant army.

    7) Lastly, it is high time everybody realised what I had been stating for the past 3 weeks has finally dawned as the reality, i.e. it was never about losing a piece of real-estate in Galwan Valley or Panggong Tso Lake, but about losing claim to the whole of Ladakh, since China in 2009 itself had declared to the whole world that it did not consider Ladakh to be a part of India & therefore it did not share any border or LAC with India in Ladakh & hence the LAC’s length then was reduced to only 2,000km. Consequently, we can now safely infer that what China is doing now is only what it had declared way back in 2009 (a point that is still not finding any mention in any media outlet in India), while India has been sleeping since then, instead of confronting China back in 2009 itself about the unilateral reduction in the LAC’s length. So yesterday it was advancing from Finger-8 to Finger-2, today it is the entire Galwan Valley being claimed as being part of China, & tomorrow it will be some other piece of Ladakh. That’s the reality India will have to contend with from now on, unless India decides to hit back like she did over an 18-day period in 1967 at Nathu la & Cho La.

    Video of May 2020 Clash at Panggong Tso Lake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NDb-IBiFQA

    ReplyDelete
  131. True, it is just a matter of time they will claim the whole of Ladakh loud and clear. Time to use force now.7th point is a wake-up call to GoI and media.
    But India hardly can do anything about it now. SO all the folks(including myself) now can rest the dream of getting back PoK in this decade. The much hushed 2.5 simultaneous front scenario is a reality today.

    Least GoI can do is to declare no "One China" policy publicly.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Prasun sir thanks for explaining things clearly and subjectively.I'm sure many of the powers that be read your blog then why they dont learn their lessons. The present disposition has been in power since a long time now to challenge the chinese claim to ladhak. The deaths of our soldiers has effected every patriotic indian. Sir will we give it back to these undisciplined communists if yes then what are the options before us. Is our present disposition in centre willing to bite the bullet and once for all break the myth of this mystical dragon. Thanks in advance for your answer. Jai Hind🙏🏻

    ReplyDelete
  133. Prasunda,

    1) How was the PLA-BDR able to muster more numbers than us? Is'nt it time we too undertook some actions at our initiative ?

    2) If the PLA-BDR doesso well against IA, what would happen when the PLAGF itself attacks ?

    3) Was this skirmish right on the LAC ?

    4) Are PLA troops de facto in possesion of more territory in Ladakh than in April ? Is this only in Pinging-Tso or have they captured territory as Lt. Gen. Panag clams?

    5) Will we retaliate for this ?

    Satyaki

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  134. Good(or should I say not so good?)morning sir.

    1)The Government has apparently given powers to the armed forces to make emergency procurements to stock up its war reserves.And the Navy has supposedly been given the go ahead to deploy it's assets near the Malacca strait and anywhere else in the Indo-Pacific region if needed.So where do you think this standoff is headed?

    2)I remember you saying plenty of times that China will lose hands down along the LaC since we have 10 Mountain Divisions compared to just 3 acclimatized brigades of China.So won't it be a good idea to call their bluff?They keep doing this again and again because they think that India won't call their bluff.Won't that put them in a tight spot?

    3)The Chinese have not fought since 1979.So they are not battle hardened(another point mentioned by you in the past).That combined with the above statistic in point 2 means that they have 2 major handicaps.You need good men and good machines.They clearly don't have the men.But if they get better machines(better military hardware),will that make up for those 2 handicaps?

    4)I remember reading about the Chinese running away during UN Peacekeeping duties in Africa and the Indian soldiers were the ones that saved the day.It was quite amusing.I remember you saying that they are intimidated by our Sikh soldiers in particular and I also remember you saying something of the sort that it is the reason we send our Sikh soldiers when/if we have exercises with China.If I have remembered your words correctly,why are they so intimidated by our Sikh soldiers?

    ReplyDelete
  135. Prasunda,

    As far as Navy is concerned what is next ar escalation matrix ?
    Secondly can any Mirage fire and control MICA missiles ? Is integration complete ?

    Best regards

    ReplyDelete
  136. To DASHU, GLAGINYE, NAYANDEEP & ARUN: Have uploaded two slides above with locational coordinates along with a brief explanation what the skirmishes were all about.

    To SATYAKI: The 2 recently uploaded slides above clearly explain the size of the PLA-BDR deployment along the Galwan River Valley.

    To PARTHSASARATHI: Undertaking operational patrols in the Malacca Straits & the Straits of Singapore with both warships & submarines. All IAF upgraded Mirage-2000Ns can fire MICA AAMs.

    ReplyDelete
  137. @Ravi_N

    Maybe this will help you understand the bidding process.

    https://www.metrorailnews.in/stec-bags-rs-1126-cr-ug-package-4-of-delhi-meerut-rrts-corridor/

    We cannot stop Chinese companies from doing business. We kept doing business with Pakistan all through the past 26/11 years.

    We had given ship building contract to the Turkish firm as well... that was later taken back. Giving a contract is subject to conditions set by the bureaucratic setup and not like a prasad at a Mandir.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Well my dear Prasun, you seem to have ASSUMED the question was not a question but an accusation. When you say Instrument of Accession- it is logical to conclude it was referring to a document because the statement did not clarify the source or the context.
    You might find this excerpt from Sir Humphrey very appropriate because unless it is documented for quick reference any announcements can not be treated as official even if it was.
    "It is characteristic of all committee discussions and decisions, that every members has a vivid recollection of them, and that every members recollection of them differs violently from every other members recollection, consequently we accept the convention that the official decisions are those, and only those which have been officially recorded in the minutes by the officials, from which it emerges with an elegant inevitability , that any decision that has been officially reached will have been officially recorded in the minutes by the officials, and any decision which is not recorded in the minutes is not officially reached, even if one or more members believe they can recollect it, so in this particular case if the decision had been officially reached, it would have been officially recorded in the minutes, by the officials and it isn't, so it wasn't."

    ReplyDelete
  139. @pras da

    1. your views on this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZSbpk5iZGk

    2. India quickly needs to assimilate parts of Nepal and merge Bhutan with India

    3. India just 50 odMig 29s needs atleast 2 dozen more Mirage 2000s from whereever possible (UE, France (the N variant))

    4. Indian Navy shoud never buy any more sister ships of INS Jalashwa as these cante used in war

    5. India can buy P 12700 MCMVs from Russia as many structures are under construction and we dont have a single MCMV but found nowere report of Saudi buying them

    6. War games or not fact is India cant fight a 2 Front war, so India needs to finish off PoK and GB by 2021 and then turn focus on LAC by 2025

    7. If USA goes for nuke test India must follow suit and this time in a area near Aksai Chin

    thanks

    Joydeep Ghosh

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  140. Dear Prasoon

    please refer this economic times articles. cut pasted from your blog with impunity and rather giving credit to your blog, they refer "sources say"

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/armed-forces-to-stock-up-war-reserves/articleshow/76415783.cms

    regards

    kunal


    ReplyDelete
  141. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oe1jAcNIks

    1.) Sir, in this statement by Chinese foreign ministry they say India crossed the LAC at galwan valley, but as you said the Chinese consider Ladakh as disputed territory and not LAC ? Has their stance changed ?

    2.) Indian troops crossed the LAC to rescue the Indian troops from the earlier party and overran the chinese post across PP-14 and chinese suffered heavy casualty there. Is this correct ?

    ReplyDelete
  142. Prasunda,
    Why our army is talking with them ? We can't politicians talk.
    I have not heard that Indian and Pakistani generals are talking to each other !
    Best regards

    ReplyDelete
  143. Is situation at Galwan Valley heading towards a Nathu la type scenario?

    ReplyDelete
  144. https://twitter.com/Rezang_La/status/1273089439485452293?s=20

    Prasun Sir, How much truth in this thread ?

    Gautam

    ReplyDelete
  145. Hello Prasun, apart from the usual dictum of reactive retaliation, could you please list out pro-active action items that can be taken to cut down China to size from the non-military escalation for near future (3 months), medium term (6 to 12 months) and long term (12 to 36 months). As a layman, I believe, the military action and its preparedness ought to be on POJ&K, Gilgit, Baltistan and Shamskam valley (not sure about the correct spelling) to retake them. Thanks, Ganesh

    ReplyDelete
  146. Now India should not mutually agree with any point of China. No peace and no business. This so because China is the Red Dragon who is soon going to be chained and locked in the deep dark pits under the earth for 1000 years.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Going forward what option does india have for leveraging against china, considering 20+ deaths of IA will linger for more than 2 decades if not less...it doesnt give legroom for give and take negotiations too i believe so...how deep is the water where we are standing now?

    ReplyDelete
  148. PrasunDa,

    Modi said in his speech that there will be retribution (on China). Do you believe he can afford to walk the talk? Furthermore, India said there is no question of accepting China's new found claim to the Galwan valley.


    Because even today Pravin Sawhney and a few others said that IA does not have capability to take on PLA.

    https://twitter.com/PravinSawhney/status/1273256013693456385?s=20

    Thank You
    VIKRAM

    ReplyDelete
  149. Abhi_Rathore,
    Yes, we can do business without Chinese. They can bid but it is up to us to choose who do we want. For that we need guts. It is our tender and we can put conditions that suit our companies. The main problems with Indian tenders are, they want cost-effective. In all the Chinese tenders, most of the workers or/and subcontractors would be from China. In SL, the Chinese company got the contract, provided the materials, workers. For smaller materials, the contractor gave subcontracts to Chinese companies.
    Similar things happen in Africa too. So the African people got fewer jobs compared to previous cases where the Western companies were the main contractors. I read somewhere that, the Chinese Comp employ the Chinese prisoners to work in foreign countries depending on their punishments.

    ReplyDelete
  150. PrasunDa,

    Rare meeting of Pak 3 service chiefs in ISI HQ:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-NmUjmz68Y

    What's going on beyond the western side of the border?

    ReplyDelete
  151. To MILLARD KEYES: What you refer to as ‘Logical’ is actually an assumptive hypothesis because it is derived from an incomplete basket of data-points. Consequently, such a hypothesis falls into the category of ‘IRRATIONALITY’.

    To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Have all Indian ATM networks crashed & been rendered unusable so far? Have all of India’s nuclear power stations gone off the grid so far? If the answers are ‘NO’, then that proves my point about mistakenly or maliciously painting China as being nine-feet tall. 2) That will be a sure recipe for disaster. 3) Not reqd at all. 4) They can be, provided they are procured with adequate quantum of spares. INS Vikramaditya too is powered with steam engines & it seems to be doing just fine. Today, one can buy only with the amount of money available in one’s wallet. Over-spending on brand-new combat-support platforms like LPDs & MRTTs must be avoided at all costs. 5) Because the order was cancelled within a few months of contract signature. A team from United Shipbuilding Corp of Russia is now in Delhi & Goa for negotiating the terms & conditions of a prospective MCMV procurement. 6) That depends on where the two-front battles will be fought. If the frontage is limited to only the UTs of J & K and Ladakh, then a limited high-intensity conventional war is fully possible. 7) Why near Aksai Chin? Won’t such an explosion serve to depopulate that area & deny grazing grounds for Ladakhi shephards?

    To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: LoLz! VMT, but what’s new? This has been going on for the past 2 decades & that’s why all the Indian TV channels who mint tens of crores worth of revenues every year don’t even have the gumption to buy a few satellite images from commercial sources for US$4,000 per imagery! A totally shameless bunch of Beghairat, Besharam & Bakwaas ‘desi’ media outlets they indeed are!!!

    To BHVK: 1) LoC & LAC are by definition all ‘temporary’ ceasefire lines & hence have no sanctity as the IB. 2) Yes, the PLA suffered far more casualties than the IA because the latter have not be properly acclimatised & accustomed to the tyranny of the terrain on whch they have been deployed.

    To PARTHASARATHI: Every week on a Thursday, the DGMO of the IA (Lt Gen) & his PA counterpart (Maj Gen) talk to one another by a telephone hotline & this has been on since July 1972.

    To GAUTAM: You ought to read this:

    https://www.amazon.in/1962-View-Other-Side-Hill/dp/9384464767

    ReplyDelete
  152. To ROHIT GILL, GANESH, RAJESH MISHRA, AMIT BISWAS & VIKRAM GUHA: In terms of priorities, the Indian PM already gave the clarion call yesterday & rightly so. This will now be followed by an all-party meet & issuance of a unitary statement demonstrating unity of resolve & objective. This in turn will be followed by several policy initiatives like:

    A) Preventing public-sector & privater-sector telecoms companies from sourcing hardware from China, be they for 4-G or 5-G networks.

    B) Beginning work on bringing down the China-India bilateral trade levels down to a figure that is lesser than the cost of implementing the CPEC.

    C) Increasing bilateral trade with those 4 countries that have strained relations with China, i.e. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea & Vietnam.

    D) Facilitating greater media coverage—national & international—to HH the Dalai Lama.

    E) In response to PLA propaganda videos about exercises in Qinghai involving DF-21 MRBMs, opening up negotiations with the US for a possible temporary deployment of a few THAAD Batteries around New Delhi & Ladakh, pending the artival of the five IAF-specific S-400 LR-SAM Regiments.

    F) Increasing the quantum of pumitive artillery fire-assaults across the LoC into PoK & hitting areas close to those areas where CPEC-related projects are now underway.

    G) Materially & financially supporting Afghanistan’s capacities for heating up the Durand Line.

    H) Preparing for undertaking tactical operations like surrounding & cutting off the supply-lines of the PLA-BDR outposts & barracks at Jelep La in eastern Sikkim & Longju village in Arunachal Pradesh—both of which were unceremoniously surrendered by India in 1967 & 1959 without even a single shot being fired. Here are their locational coordinates & have uploaded their imagery above:

    Jelep La: 27 21 56.61 N, 88 51 48.42 E
    Longju: 28 39 39.67 N, 93 22 22.66 E

    In short, India’s riposte should be the combination of economic/financial, political/information warfare & military retaliation. The global anti-China sentiment should be further exploited for applying maximum international diplomatic pressure, while visible efforts aimed at enhancing India’s balance of military of military power (like temporarily acquiring THAAD Batteries) will make China feel more insecure. At the same time, India needs to highlight the professional incompetence of the PLA by highlighting its undisciplined behaviour & misgivings within the PLA Western Theatre Command’s command-n-control hierarchy & its inability to obey the directives of the Beijing-based Central Military Commission. In addition, unlike the Indian PM, the President of China & PLA’s Commander-in-Chief does not have the guts & sagacity to address his citizens & troops & he instead only issues constant paper directives to the PLA about enhancing & ensuring war preparedness—which indicates that even he always has second thoughts about the PLA’s performance in the real battlefields. And it also proves that the PLA os not really a popular people’s armed force that fights for China’s citizens, but in reality exists & fights only for the survival of the Communist Party of China (CPC). And this alone is the greatest demoralising factor that will ultimately inhibit the PLA’s battlefield performance.

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  153. Prasunda,

    1) The satellite photos you uploaded show a PLA buildup in Galwan valley inside their side of the LAC. Is it not ?

    2) You have earlier (June 17) said that PLA and IA casualties were similar. More recently, you have told BHVK that PLA has higher casualties. Did any new evidence of the latter emerge ?

    Satyaki

    ReplyDelete
  154. Prasunda,

    When the PLA caught unarmed troops who had gone to negotiate by surprise, how can they have suffered more casualties ? It dose'nt add up

    Kritavarma

    ReplyDelete

  155. hi prasun
    great retaliatory thoughts, but if any one has the guts and the nationalistic feeling it is modi. My thoughts are the retaliatory sanction on fertilsers , electrical goods and mainy pharmacueticals and other s. If it can do it to US it will do it to India. what then ?, how do we over come that? given the precarious economy?.can they jam the existing telecom facilities that have chinese hardare. ? will it not create bad name for them around trhe world if so?
    we can always ask taiwan to help on cell phone production. can we tell the existing manufacturers to get out of India?
    they have invested in critical financial service as well , how do we over come that?
    what is the are that will be harmed when there is counter sanction from china ?
    there are lot of tweets challenging india to not buy cell phones from china by chinese buggers.
    some scared retired defence guys are quoted saying that all the IAF air field will be rendered in operative by rocket and and misisle barages , how do we over come that?
    surely iAF has thought of that?


    ReplyDelete
  156. Were'nt our casualties 20 KIA 18 seriously injured and 58 with less serious injuries thus totalling 96 while PLA had 46 casualties in all ? Do the 46 PLA casualties include only the dead and seriously injured?

    Ashwatthama

    ReplyDelete
  157. What is the possible time period to recapture jelep la and longju. How IAF will defend its airfields from Chinese missiles?

    ReplyDelete
  158. To SATYAKI & KRITAVARMA: have uploaded additional text & imageries above that explains everything.

    To RAD: VMT. To cut a long story short, given my 33 years of association with & living among Chinese communities, I can guarantee that 2 things above all hurts the average Chinaman the most: 1) Loss of face. 2) Loss of money.

    These 2 constitute the Achilles Heels of Mainland China today. Once we can understand & grasp this reality, everything else easily falls into place. The PLAAF & PLARF will attempt to destroy IAF air bases & ALGs ONLY IF they are convinced that the IAF will not retaliate with equal effect. But since the IAF possesses BrahMos-1s and will by next month receive its first 7 Rafales, neither the PLAAF nor PLARF attempt anything foolish, kindly rest assured. And as I had stated before, no kind of war will break out & as of now the best military option for the IA-IAF combine is to conduct a retaliatory occupation of China-controlled territory of the types I've mentioned above, i.e. Jelep La Pass & Longju Village. There are several other areas like this as well along both Himachal Pradesh & Uttarkhand that will cut off China's G-219 Highway inside TAR.

    Also expect a lot of information about the PLA's deficiencies in the Western Theatre Command (WTC) to start emerging from now on from US agencies like the NSA & NRO. For, such incidents are Almighty-gifted opportunities to swarm all over each & every Chinese transmitting piece of hardware like bees around a Hornet's Nest, which will give vital intelligence-based insights into the PLA-WTC's command-control-comms networks & their deficiencies, plus the battlefield logistics networks & their deficiencies & also insights into the PLASSF's Chengdu-based Unit 61398 cyber warfare formation. And needless to say, a lot of such inputs will be shared by the US with India.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Prasunda,

    1) Does the IAF posses 200+ Brahmos-1s ? PLARF probably has huundreds of DF-15 and dozens of DF-16, of which the DF-15B and DF-16 appear to be highly accurate.

    2) There were reports that Brahmos aerospace planned to produce 2000 Brahmos missiles. By when will that be achieved ?

    3) After the PLA plan to set up an OP on the LAC at PP14 was foiled, is Pangong-Tso the only area where PLA is entrenched on our side of the LAC?

    Satyaki

    ReplyDelete
  160. Looks like the PLA has further consolidated in Finger 4 and built hundreds of structures over dozens of positions there. Is IA not escalating because PLA, the stronger party, controls the escalation ladder ?

    BZhRK

    ReplyDelete
  161. The best 2 objective/rational explanations byfar about China's intentions/motives behind the latest standoffs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2CY4snPxJpY&t=24s

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXr11etbwuk&t=3s

    Why replacing Chinese imports isn’t that easy, as explained here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAanogy0Bi8&t=130s

    To SATYAKI: 1) Not that high a number. The PLARF has about 200 TBMs fitted with cluster munitions for conventional counter-force attacks & this is because such TBMs are used as deep-interdiction weapons to compensate for the PLAAF’s lack of advanced deep-strike interdictor aircraft. 2) Only by the latter half of this decade. 3) One cannot say that the PLA is sitting on the Indian side of the LAC because had that been the Indian side, then permanent ITBP posts would have been there. Instead, no such post existed between Finger-4 & Finger-8 & only seasonal patrols were mounted by the ITBP & IA. So, technically, such areas cannot be claimed as being Indian or India-controlled. Watch the 2 videos that I’ve weblinked above.

    To BZHRK: How can the IA do anything there now since the PLA controls all routes of ingress both on the finger-spurs as well as on the river-banks? Watch the 2 videos that I’ve weblinked above.

    To ROHIT GILL: Timelines change as the fluidity of the situation remains. The IAF will have to strike back & knock out all airports that are used by the PLAAF inside TAR & Xinjiang. Hence the PLARF will not conduct strikes with its TBMs against IAF air bases.

    To ASHWATTHAMA: No, the PLA suffered 46 dead. The nos of wounded PLA personnel are not yet known.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Sir, Ajay Shukla shared a picture of nail studded rods used by Chinese soldiers. Shudder to think about the last moments of our men. They were unarmed and outnumbered 1:5. I can't imagine the anger in the army. This has be avenged in a brutal way. The military option must be exercised. PM said the martyrdom of our soldiers will not go in vain. The world is waiting. His next decision may decide the course of 21st century.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Prasunda,

    How did we learn about 46dead? Intercepts ? Surprising they have so many dead when they started it with premeditation against an unarmed contingent that was there for negotiation.

    Ashwatthama

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  164. Prasun,

    1- here we go again ... https://www.defencenews.in/article/Employees-at-41-ordnance-factories-to-go-on-indefinite-strike-against-corporatisation-841195 .. who needs the chinese...will the govt bend again?? check the timing
    2 Your replies on finger 4 & 8 show that we have always been stark idiots .. classic latoon ke bhooth.. jab tak padti nahi hain tab tak kuch hilta nahin .. worse laat padne par bhi suderte nahi... we go back to chalta hain mode... I doubt if this govt has guts to capture chinese areas as a retaliatory measure

    ReplyDelete
  165. Hello Prasun, thanks for your insights. I have been going through the commentaries and his interviews to various forums and presstitutes shops. I wonder what he has to say about his accomplishments when he was incharge, as response for I sense the learned general (Panag) went into amnesia after his retirement and woke up when he was asked to prepare a "defense and foreign policy" manifesto for East India Company aka Congress. His intense comparison of current prime minister to "Bharat Ratna" Chacha Nehru (for his follies) is stupid to say the least. His insights on the ground situation is enlightening at least to laymen like me. I wonder what would be his views if presumably the defense minister of India with Pappu as prime minister with Mo-mo-to bunurjee (china grass root congress) as coalition partner. All puns intended

    On the realistic plane, I suppose the current dispensation take cues and does the necessary to safeguard our country and I believe we are in for interesting times.
    Thanks, Ganesh

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  166. Sir, there is news that IAF has proposed for an emergency purchase of 12 Sukhoi and 21 Mig29 Upg .Is there any truth in it.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Hi Prasun,

    What stops IAF from procuring Netra awacs in larger numbers.? Rather than not having any eyes in the air atleast 240 degree scan capacity should be good enough. Isn't it. Or there are performance related issues of the radar

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  168. 1) so it means no import subsititution anytime soon? Especially our dependence on API, steel, rare metals? And trade bans will hurt us more?

    2) can Brahmos A be rushed into service now? Are they and modified sukhoi available in any quantity?

    3) what jammers/self protection suit present on our mirages?

    4) what are our retaliatory options apart from territory grab as you have suggested? Pushback?
    Since i don't have command of LAC perceptions - No more patrol beyond Finger 4 for us now?
    They seemed to have gamed this and are reinforcing.

    5) seems more of a 1959 type redux ie going from bhai bhai we have no territorial issues to a sudden attack on patrol party and saying this land is ours, all this years before a major war.

    6) acclimatization notwithstanding, how did chinese get in so many troops - reports of reinforcements across of sectors by desi patrakars. I was under impression they had barely 3 brigades, 5 border guard battalions.
    Have they moved certain Xinjiang units or their combined arms from tibet to LAC?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  169. PrasunDa,

    It seems there are several Indian Army soldiers, officers who are still in PLA captivity.

    https://twitter.com/manaman_chhina/status/1273600504791052288?s=20

    That's the reason why military level talks are still going on despite the fact that 20 IA soldiers were killed.

    Unfortunately, it seems that PLA casualty figure of approximately 35-45 is not true. There is no concrete evidence to suggest PLA lost that many soldiers.

    Furthermore, News 18 NE said today, China has now grabbed a large portion of land in Arunachal.

    https://assam.news18.com/news/nation/how-china-occupied-huge-land-of-arunachal-pradesh-bjp-mp-tapir-gaon-describes-history-62953.html

    Thanks,
    VIKRAM

    ReplyDelete
  170. https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1273636620403642375/photo/1

    what is there obsession with panda and elephant, it is literally laughable.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Are we Losing territory from our perceived line of LAC this time ?

    Gautam

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  172. Admiral arunp prakash gives us finer details of introspection for us

    CNNNews18 (@CNNnews18) Tweeted:
    #IndiaChinaFaceOff | Admiral @arunp2810 (Former Navy Chief) talks to @shreyadhoundial on #ChinaFiles.

    Listen-in to what he has to say. https://t.co/0zrJnkmGJr https://twitter.com/CNNnews18/status/1273622701001904133?s=20

    ”If a country goes shopping for aircraft before a war, you know how prepared it is.”

    What India needs to ponder

    1) Why no lessons learnt from narrative disaster post Balakot

    2) Is the Govt confused between Strategic Messaging and PR?

    3) Have the forces across LAC been equipped well to tackle any adversity?

    4) Were we in denial?

    ReplyDelete
  173. Hello Prasun, with due regards to all the concerned patriots, does blowing hot air especially with keyboards help the cause? Any approach/action taken by government shall be well thought out and tenable, any additional thoughts from you please. Thanks, Ganesh

    ReplyDelete
  174. Thank you for an excellent narrative. One question - any source for the 46 PLA fatalities?
    Seems feasible and two to three other people I've interacted with say roughly the same thing.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  175. Dada,

    After going through your updates few queries emerged in my mind.

    1. As you highlighted, an attempt for construction of an PLA OP at PP14 inside Indian side of LAC was root cause of Galwan Valley incident. You mentioned this OP would give PLA tactical advantage to oversee and interdict IA movement along DSDBO road and consequent artillery onslaught on bridge IA is building on Galwan River. Earlier you stated that with the advent of Drones PLA can oversee IA movement from 10-15 KM inside Chinese side of LAC and occupying heights of Galwan Ridge is not at all required like Kargil war. Hence I couldn't co-relate both comments of yours. Can you kindly clarify my doubts?

    2. You mentioned PLA has base camp down the ridge along the Galwan River bank. Hence, PLA using APC brought in reinforcements quickly to outnumber IA. My question is what for IA didn't establish base camp near PP14 like PLA? Then in no situation IA would be outnumbered to PLA.

    3. Now that casualty resulted from landslide and consequent exposure to freezing water and yet having been stationed at the spot of brawl. Given the fact PLA outnumbered IA during the scuffle and PLA is historically poorly acclimatized to such harsh weather compared to IA brought about more death toll at PLA. Is my assessment correct?

    4. I hope eventually PLA couldn't build the said OP. Am I right?

    5. While IA noticed in May month itself PLA is using Iron Rod fitted with nails, to circumvent protocols why did IA not provide forward patrols counter measures?

    ReplyDelete
  176. To JUST_CURIOUS & GANESH: Yes, the idiocracy’s origin was this 1st original sin:

    J & K’s territory included jurisdiction over Minser (Menser) estate, which consisted of a cluster of villages located 296 kilometres deep inside Chinese territory at the foot of the holy Mount Kailash on the bank of Manasarovar Lake. Barely two months after independence, Nehru was apparently shocked to receive two telegrams from the Tibetan Government in Lhasa asking India to return the (lost) territories of Tibet. One of these, dated October 16, 1947 and forwarded through the Indian Mission in Lhasa, sought the return of territories "such as Sayul and Walong and in direction of Pemakoe, Lonag, Lapa, Mon, Bhutan, Sikkim, Darjeeling and others on this side of river Ganges and Lowo, Ladakh etc. up to boundary of Yarkhim." Nehru was stunned by these Tibetan demands but concealed them from Parliament. He seemingly rejected the Tibetan claim and instead advised Lhasa to maintain the status quo until new agreements can be reached. This most preposterous claim by the Tibetans, which was fraught with incalculable consequences for India, is mentioned in the then Intelligence Bureau Chief B.N. Mullick’s book My Years with Nehru–the Chinese Betrayal. Mullick characterised it as an “ill-advised claim” by the Tibetan authority. Interestingly, neither did Lhasa accept independent India’s call for ratifying the 1914 Simla Convention and the McMahon Line Treaty nor was it willing to send an official delegation to attend India’s Independence celebration in 1947. Perhaps, it was this Tibetan inanity that prompted Nehru to issue a clarification on December 6, 1950 that “he was not interested in challenging China’s suzerainty over it.”

    India had a full 3 years (from 1947 till 1950) to get its political map conceptually right. During this period, had Pandit ‘Chacha’ Nehru adopted the McMahon Line & the above (which was sanctified by the Chushul Treaty of 1842 that can be read here: https://tibet.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/political-treaties-of-tibet...pdf) as the conceptual borders of India & had discarded the Johnson-Ardagh Line that showed eastern Aksai Chin as part of India in both the 1950 & 1954 maps), then it would have been possible for India to have an easily defensible & habitable area contiguous to Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh & Uttarkhand, with the Kailash mountain range forming a natural defensive barrier to the north. At the same time, letting go of the barren, lifeless eastern Aksai China area would have left China free to construct the G-219 TAR-Xinjiang Highway without bothering India in any way. But Alas! Strategic visioning was never the forte of most of India’s founding fathers!!! Hence, one cannot exactly blame Lt Gen Panag for stating the obvious, i.e. the present political dispensation cannot be expected to clear up all the mess created by successive Govts of India since the early 1950s. India is now stuck in a quagmire.

    I’ve uploaded new imagery above that clearly demonstrates that India has now lost forever the area between Fingers 4 & 8, judging by the size of recently-built permanent structures built by the PLA.

    ReplyDelete
  177. To PSR: That was under negotiations since January 2019. Check out the threads from February 2019 onwards in which this was mentioned & discussed.

    To ABHIJIT: That can only be answered by the IAF & DRDO. As far as the IAF goes, it wants the two additional A-50I PHALCON platforms ASAP.

    To VSJ: 1) India’s imports & exports from/toChina:

    Imports https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBvsyBvL3gs
    Exports https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxidcpRQ5Co

    2) Yes, but only about six of them & not more than that. 3) Check out the thread on EX Gagan Shakti-2018 for such info. 4) Pushback will result in a bloody stalemate, whereas counter-occupation will produce an exchange without any bloodshed. 5) No, because the PLA has this time around come up with an operational plan that has been in the making for almost a year & is not the product of an overnight planning process. There is a grand design behind it & it will in all probability be to rub India’s nose on the ground by making India retract the Aigust 6 statement by Indian Union Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah about liberating all occupied territory that includes Aksai Chin. And that’s because India’s stance has an inherent contradiction, i.e. on November 14, 1962, India’s Parliament passed a unanimous resolution stating that India will recover every inch of territory lost to China, 'howsoever long or hard the struggle may be!' But the 2003 creation of the posts of Special Representatives & all the 2005 agreement on resolving the boundary issue through negotiations means that there will have to be a give-n-take of real estate by each of the two parties. So China now wants India to clarify officially to the whole world what exactly is India’s definitive decision: is it to liberate Aksai Chin militarily, or is it to resolve it through negotiations. If India now says that it is the latter, then China will spring the next now-not-so-surprising poser: if the eastern boundaries can be negotiated, then why not the western boundary as well, i.e. make peace with Pakistan by accepting the reality of BRI & its CPEC component. Will this be politically acceptable to India? That’s India’s dilemma now, because now India will not only be reqd to overt5ide the 14-11-1962 Parkliamentary resolution, but also this one that on February 22, 1994 was adopted unanimously:

    https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/document/papers/parliament_resolution_on_Jammu_and_Kashmir.htm

    6) The PLA deployment along eastern Ladakh now comprises only 3 Brigades oif no more than 9,000 personnel that can easily be acclimatised over a 3-month period as they have been exercising in Qinghai since last January.

    To VIKRAM GUHA & SBM: Have uploaded the slides showing the IA & PLA martyred. 18 IA soldiers are now in Army Hospital in Leh and will join back duty in 15 days, while 58 soldiers in other hospitals with minor injuries will join in a week. And here are the diametrically opposing statements from the Foreign Ministers of the two countries:

    China Statement https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EatdF5tXYAUR_ge?format=jpg&name=large

    India Statement https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EatkbV-WkAIdfWB?format=jpg&name=large

    But the most pathetic outcome is that the IA’s soldiers & officers, who are trained to fight high-intensity conventional/sub-conventional battles, are from now on being equipped with protective gear meant for riot-control forces. Can there be anything more demoralising & insulting for any all-volunteer army? Just think about it:

    IA Riot Gear: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7IaD8FGUAgc

    To VARUN: PLA’s Rods: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5pHf4ls78M

    To ASHWATTHAMA: As I’ve explained above, the US has all kind of terrestrial & space-based sensors from which such information can be gleamed.

    To GAUTAM: In the Panggong Tso Lake area, definitely yes. Check out the slides/imageries I’ve uploaded above.

    ReplyDelete
  178. To AD: 1) I have explained it above & here it is again: the PLA has this time around come up with an operational plan that has been in the making for almost a year & is not the product of an overnight planning process. There is a grand design behind it & it will in all probability be to rub India’s nose on the ground by making India retract the Aigust 6 statement by Indian Union Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah about liberating all occupied territory that includes Aksai Chin. And that’s because India’s stance has an inherent contradiction, i.e. on November 14, 1962, India’s Parliament passed a unanimous resolution stating that India will recover every inch of territory lost to China, 'howsoever long or hard the struggle may be!' But the 2003 creation of the posts of Special Representatives & all the 2005 agreement on resolving the boundary issue through negotiations means that there will have to be a give-n-take of real estate by each of the two parties. So China now wants India to clarify officially to the whole world what exactly is India’s definitive decision: is it to liberate Aksai Chin militarily, or is it to resolve it through negotiations. If India now says that it is the latter, then China will spring the next now-not-so-surprising poser: if the eastern boundaries can be negotiated, then why not the western boundary as well, i.e. make peace with Pakistan by accepting the reality of BRI & its CPEC component. Will this be politically acceptable to India? That’s India’s dilemma now, because now India will not only be reqd to overt5ide the 14-11-1962 Parkliamentary resolution, but also this one that on February 22, 1994 was adopted unanimously:

    https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/india/document/papers/parliament_resolution_on_Jammu_and_Kashmir.htm

    2) Check out the new slides/imagery that have been uploaded above. 3) Possibly yes. 4) The PLA-BDR can always come up the following year & rebuild it or even bring along a pre-fabricated OP. 5) It did, that’s why an all-volunteer professional army now has to don riot-control gear for self-protection. Can there be anything more demeaning/insulting than this?

    Also, do read this:

    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/satellite-images-show-positions-surrounding-deadly-china-india-clash/

    ReplyDelete
  179. "to rub India’s nose on the ground" that says all. Will this be politically acceptable to India- well anything is possible with these leaders. Modi ko Ch**** bana diya willy Xi.
    Politically it would be acceptable as long as India gets back PoK a task now seems very difficult as now clear that CCP will openly intervein.

    Just one question WHAT IF after PLA leaves those permanent structures due to weather and just prior to not so bad weather in next year if India occupies those places , what will happen?

    ReplyDelete
  180. Prasunda,

    1) Your slides show 30 KIA for PLA. Did more succumb to injuries later taking their toll to 46?

    2) Would India be forced to retract the Aug 6 statement by the home minister and make peace with PRC and Pak on their terms ?

    3) Would GoI decide to do a counter occupation elsewhere along the LAC and undertake the other steps that you outlined earlier ? Or is the balance of power already too skewed in PLAs favour ?

    Satyaki

    ReplyDelete
  181. Dear Prasun,

    So now it's confirmed that China will acquire Ladakh inch by inch in the coming years. India is caught behind thanks to Nehru and other incompetent politicians. Our soldiers are scapegoats whose lives don't matter. I'm feeling like suicidal. Further to add salt to the injury, we are again losing area in the fingers area. Feeling depressed.

    1. Now if India claims Aksai chin to be sovereign territory of J n K, then there will be military decision whether India can acquire it or not. Or go for negotiation and lose everything that China demands. Am I correct? So in future we are going to lose Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Needless to say Ladakh.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Earlier you said that China wants to make Pakistan upper riparian state over India and this is the main reason why they claim j&k but if India has to negotiate boundary issue with China and resolve it through give and take of territory and as a result if India is forced to resolve Kashmir issue through the same procedure then what benefit it will give to India, will it not be a political suicide by the particular ruling party, will Pakistan stop claiming Indian controlled j&k, then according to instrument of accession Kashmir is India's territory including areas occupied by Pakistan then how can India let go gilgit, baltistan and occupied valley?

    ReplyDelete
  183. Dada,

    Thank you very much for articulating and illustrating status quo as on today. Can you share your incisive views on the following queries please?

    1. Couple of days back following PM's address to nation, you shared holistic, overarching approach of Indian riposte to make China pay. Taking into account latest development would you like to pursue same approach or you will update the Indian gameplan?

    2. How can India recover landmass between finger area 4 and 8? Ostensibly either military offensive (limited warfare like Kargil rather than full blown war but be prepared for full blown war) or balkanization of China are the options at disposal of India.

    3. It seems China is partially winner of this confrontation as China as of now successfully executed salami slicing or land grab at Pangong Tso Lake between finger area 4 and 8. India therefore got humiliated at world stage. Is my assessment correct?

    4. How come Indian intelligence and IA/ ITBP failed to detect Chinese transgression rather invasion at Pangong Tso Lake between finger area 4 and 8? Would they manage to detect, PLA would and could have been foiled from occupying this piece of real estate.

    5. Is it true that 10 IA soldiers got captured during the brawl? If true, how come PLA, managed to capture them while IA couldn't make a single PLA soldier captive?

    6. How many PLA soldiers lost their lives, 30 or 46? You have shared 30 names. However quite a few PLA commissioned officers got killed as opposed to 1 from IA.

    7. I wonder what for Barrack Obama didn't curb Chinese aggression including artificial island at South China Sea. Barrack Obama is squarely culpable for making Chinese dare to commit all these crimes.

    8. From your latest analysis, it seemed to me the OP building in Galwan which caused deadly scuffle was meant to teach India a lesson rather than tactical advantage (which can be achieved using drones as well). Is my understanding correct?

    9. My apologies for asking same question again, do you mean IA crossed the LAC in Galwan to ask PLA to dismantle the OP? If yes, then conspicuously PLA base camp would be nearer to OP rather than IA base camp and IA would be outnumbered easily as reinforcements from IA base camp would take more time to reach ground zero.

    10. Looking at the patterns of PLA activities (thanks to your immaculate assessment) it seems to me Indian Government and Defence Establishment have to get their acts together sooner than later with a sole goal of decimating and balkanizing China. Otherwise entire J&K will be lost to Pakistan. Entire Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh will be lost to China. Am I overreacting?

    ReplyDelete
  184. Prasun da
    According to the article india had permanent presence between finger 3 & 4 chinese came there in may between finger 4 &5 now they have over 500 structures there how this is possible.why army didn't acted than

    ReplyDelete
  185. Prasun,

    1- Reports about chinese stopping/diverting flow of galwan river.. will they use this threat on other rivers/rivulets. how to deal with it?
    2- as you mention, this was a result of a well planned approach by the chinese, dosent it mean that it is an intelligence failure of colossal proportions & also a near zero strategic approach by the powers that be..especially post the revocation of art 370 not to mention its constant blocking of masood azhar's listing or blcking india attempts @ gaining a seat @the UN high table or calling informal meets on kashmir.. it was obvious as it can be that china will play dirty given its plans for the region & propping up the pakis
    3- N korea acting funny.. prodded by china to keep the quad members (japs & the US) @bay, a signalling to them to not get involved? is the US deployment of 3 carriers in the pacific anything to do with this clash?
    4- Has Russia done anything so far wrt to this clash & where do you think will their loyalities like this time around? India agreeing to participate in the RIC summit.. any russian pressure or assurance?
    5- How is it that everytime indian personnal get captured here too @10 have been released by the chinese.. its clearly a bargining chip.. tactic used both by the chinese & the pakis..I hear these so called Ex-high ranking force officials claiming how morally rightious we are & that we were back stabbed .. seriously idiots comments!!! if the otherside were so virtious then there wud have been no enmity & hence no need for armed forces. Was hearing some ex-top gen saying hez shocked.. if thats the reaction from him then he was never fit to be in taht position in the first place... we have only been REACTIVE.. BLOODY EVERY TIME.. and they have the bargaining chipsbe it personnal or real estate or any other chip..
    5- Never understood why is India craving for a permenant UN seat.. UN anyways is an impotent org.
    6- what will the 3 wings buy from the emergency funds to strengthen their positions

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  186. So, atlast we reached on to the conclusion that a kargil type scenario with the eastern neighbor. As you said, they planned very intelligently, executed and enjoys the high ground on dialogues( we dont know whether they want it or not). But before going to the discussion table as empty handed , i think it is the time to devise a serious strategic planning against china. As of your assessment which of below mentioned has more effects and take china to the negotiation table.
    1. India also should grab some real estate where ever it is possible and as much, without climbing the escalatory ladder
    2. As of now the so called quad was of purely theoretical but it is the right time to operationalising it as US is prepared for a massive showdown at the western pacific and deployement of thaad batteries at the ladak will definitely has some serious effects for both china and russia.
    3. Activation of another front at the china sea or korean peninsula ( definitely not by india) will divert their attention.
    4. Get out from the idiotic decision of one china policy.

    ReplyDelete
  187. 1.) https://www.tenderdetail.com/Indian-Tenders/TenderNotice/24364514/4F8AD9A0C300CC299B6C480BAC4A73DC

    Sir,
    Recent tender for production of VLSRSAM for testing. What radar are they planning to use ? Will it be naval version of QRSAM radars or something else ?

    2.) A lot of recent crashes involving American air force aircrafts especially the frontline fighters (f-35, f-22, f-15 and f-18 SH). Is some sabotaging going on ?

    3.) Heavy losses being incurred on Pakistan military by different rebel groups. Indian and Afghanistan upping the ante?

    ReplyDelete
  188. Source: Military Digest: Standing Up to Chinese Aggression by Mandeep Singh Bajwa, The Indian Express, June 19, 2020.

    1, Why did our soldiers go to confront the Chinese unarmed?
    I know there’s a protocol dating back to 1996 whereby the two sides have agreed to exercise restraint and not open fire. But this wasn’t patrolling. Colonel Santosh Babu’s battalion, 16 Bihar and the rest of 81 Mountain Brigade were manning frontline defences. It is now certain that the Colonel and his party were lured into a trap through a ruse. The clash wasn’t the result of a momentary lapse of control or triggered by a grave provocation. It was a pre-mediated trap laid by the wily Chinese bent upon creating a critical situation.

    2, Under orders and acting in good faith the unsuspecting Indian soldiers walked right into it. The very specific orders to remain totally unarmed in the Galwan Valley stand-off must’ve come from very high up the chain of command. Who issued that order?

    3, What intelligence inputs were available and more importantly disseminated to the troops on the ground regarding Chinese intentions and whether they were armed or not?

    4, Were any unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) deployed to gather information about the Chinese deployment in the area?

    5, Did the political hierarchy’s bid to project a hunky-dory situation put unnecessary, added weight on local commanders to throw caution to the winds? In such situations it is not unknown for South Block’s impatience to result in troops paying the ultimate price.

    6, The govt’s spin doctors have put out that many of our Jawans died because the extremely low temperature exacerbated their injuries or because of hypothermia after falling into the Galwan river. Was no provision made for medical treatment beyond first-aid in the field or evacuation of casualties to base hospitals?

    7, It strikes me as curious that elements of three infantry battalions and two artillery regiments should’ve been involved yet the Chinese seem to have out-numbered them. What was the force level deployed in the area?

    8, Why were we in denial for so long? Why the constant, repugnant effort to placate the intractable Chinese? For example, the defence minister’s very first statement made a month after the intrusions started to the effect that ‘the Chinese had come in sizeable numbers along (rather than across) the Line of Actual Control. It could only have served but to embolden Chinese belligerence.

    9, What options are available to us for immediate operations to restore the status quo and evict the Chinese?
    We can exercise any of three options: block any further advance with defensive positions and wait (leading to negotiations), launch a limited offensive to oust the intruders or use our offensive capability to occupy Chinese territory and swap that for territory that we lost to them.

    ReplyDelete
  189. To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Not true. 2) It is an assessment failure by the NSA, the NSC & the NSAB. 4) Russia is pressurising both parties to negotiate a mutually face-saving solution. That’s why the Indian FM will soon be heading to Sochi. 5) That’s what information warfare is all about. 6) Meanwhile, after every crisis, the issue of emergency purchases for overcoming war material shortages always comes up again & again, like this: The Army, which is at present seeing eye-ball to eye-ball with Chinese troops in Ladakh, has put at least 45 key items, including different types of ammunition, warm clothing meant for troops deployed in areas like Ladakh, man-landing parachutes among other things, on a critical list. The army, through the department of defence production (DDP), has asked the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) to ensure supply of these items on priority. The stocks of 20 of these critical items are ammunitions, which are below ‘10(I)’ levels. This means that their present stocks are insufficient “to undertake 10 days of ‘intensive’ full-spectrum fighting.” Of these 20 items, five ammunitions are those that the army not only gets from the ordnance factories, but also through imports, and the stocks are still not up to the desired levels. Listing out another 21 items, the army said: “...The following items are likely to become critical in case of disruption of normal supply.” These items include combat dress, ‘Coat ECC’ (coats meant for extreme cold conditions), ponchos and caps for glaciers, supply dropping equipment and man-parachute items. Aside from this, the DDP has also pointed out the shortfall in supply of three artillery guns, indents for which were placed earlier. More than 167 such guns are yet to be delivered by the OFB, whose productions have been hit due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Also, there’s also short supply of 196 mine-protected vehicles. The OFB, which received the note marked “most urgent” from the DDP on June 9, has since communicated the same to general managers of the 41 ordnance factories spread across the country, but employee federations representing the 80,000+ workers say they are firm on the indefinite strike, which is being called against the government’s decision to corporatise OFB.

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  190. To DASHU: Honour can still be salvaged, but only if heed is paid to voices of sanity cold-hearted experience, like this one:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU8nvAEl26c&t=3s

    To SATYAKI: 1) Most likely. 2) Looks like it, because it was extremely stupid of him to mention Aksai Chin without making any reference to on-going negotiations involving the Special Representatives of both countries. A classic case of political naivety. 3) Possible, but only if voices of sanity & rationality are listened to, like this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU8nvAEl26c&t=3s

    To ROHIT GILL: That can only be answered by the MORON who made the mistake of including Aksai Chin in his statement in Parliament on August 6, but not mentioning the Trans-Karakoram Tract (inclusive of Shaksgam Valley). It is such imbeciles with no idea of past historical factoids tend to blabber & make India land in trouble.

    To AD: 1) PM’s address to nation was meaningless as he was only playing to emotions. Whether even he is now clueless will be known after a few days when the POTUS makes another tweet or remark about another of his conversations with the Indian PM. 2) Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU8nvAEl26c&t=3s 3) Correct. 4) It was not an intelligence failure, but an assessment failure on the part of the NSA, the NSC & the NSAB. 5) 100% true. 6) Does it really matter? This is where Indians get it all wrong by not analysing how such a situation could have been prevented or deterred. 8) Correct. 9) It is all explained above in the narrative. 10) Don’t expect the moronic ‘netas’ of India to act smartly or intelligently. Instead, just pray that a US-led coalition of the willing emerges to guide India through this crisis. 11) All that happened within a 30-day period & it is perfectly doable.

    To BHVK: The radar was shown at DEFEXPO 2018 & is the THALES-BEL PHAROS MFR. The tender is for supply of components for fabricating the prototypes of VL-SR-SAM that will be a version of the DRDO-developed QR-SAM.

    ReplyDelete
  191. Prasun Da, have just read your views, while thanking for it, I really like to have a share of your thoughts regarding the following :

    A. As you have rightly predicted, the bear has intervened to get the two countries against going lock horns. However, this is for the time being.

    The Chinese has the advantages and likewise 1959, they have attained their objectives by acquiring the area up to Finger 4. Since, India can not get reversed on PoK , and for PRC it may be some sorts of humiliation for PLA to have casualties and to release the captured soldiers of adversary. I might be wrong. So, can we expect the things to get in future, accordingly as you have stated in your reply from A to H on June 18, 2020 at 6:37 AM ? Since, China can not be active in all fronts at the same time. I think next two years will be very important and at the same time when India got elected as non permanent member in UNSC on overwhelming votes.



    B. The completion of the border infrastructure projects will be fast forwarded ?

    C. Is it the high time, the Government of India go for Dhanus MGS by splitting the productions between Indian private players, so fulfil requirements by the IA, like you mentioned ? As well as all other hardwares ?

    D. Also, same should go for upgradation of BMPs ?

    E. The Government now should offer VRS to all the staffs of the OFBs and rehabilitate them under new corporate management with attractive offers as soon as possible, as you have pre mentioned.

    E. Can IA be given responsibility for the command of ITBP ?

    F. The recent decision like blocking the Indian Telecom Companies to procure from Chinese companies as well as move to terminate of the Contract of Chinese company by Indian Railways will hurt the Chinese more ?

    https://youtu.be/jdkQ3KnwZtI


    G. Kindly check the link below

    https://youtu.be/K8c0P4pPHKM,

    Share your views regarding it. What might be the possible location of area where the video has been sought ?

    Kindly Share your thought regarding all the above matters.

    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  192. Sir
    1. With regarding to the ak 630 truck mounted ciws, when do you think it will be inducted if all goes as per plan?
    2. Do you think from now on defence procurement will be hastened?
    3. What if catches China by surprise and retake pok and cut off the geographical link between pakistan and China?

    ReplyDelete
  193. Dear Prasun,

    1. Now PM denied that China has occupied any Indian posts or captured our territory. So by this has he accepted that LAC what China has crossed not ours i.e he has succumbed to the Chinese domination?

    2. Why China needling in western border i.e. with Pakistan. It's India's and Pakistan's bilateral issues. I understand China has business interests; but that doesn't mean that it has any right to meddle in India's affair.

    3. Further, India's best option to retaliate China is to acquire PoK and Gilgit Baltistan. And this ensure the end of CPEC.

    4. If I go through your analysis, I came to know that China will certainly interfere may be militarily if India gets back PoK and Gilgit Baltistan. Your view please.

    5. Please share your view to deal with the ongoing Chinese strategy to acquire Indian land inch by inch without firing a bullet.

    6. You described it as insult for army jawans wearing riot gear. Do you also share my view that our men could have fired and retaliated strongly during that stand-off or hand to hand fighting. Please share what you had wanted.

    Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  194. Addendum to my queries:

    7. Why Chinese FM dominantly said that the recent violence was completely India's irresponsibility. He literally told like this. But why impotent statement from our side? Are we still having it in our mind that we are born lose. Please share your views.

    ReplyDelete
  195. No one entered Indian territory - China didn’t enter Indian territory- 1st sign of accepting Chini sovereignty?

    ReplyDelete
  196. sir

    There are lot of Indian PoV and indians failure or success. But seriously no one came out with analysis of Chinese. Where they failed and succeeded.

    I still dont get it, even if they capture unit finger 4/5, what they achieve by militarily, are they suggesting capturing finger 4 is some strategic marvelous? That they made a marvelous tactical move which hole no value strategically in protecting Ladakh?

    There was importance of Galwan Valley, were they can cutoff our road. But just our 40 men established tents at PP14 and there whole OP failed. I mean what the fuck.

    Why you brought so much Armour vehicles troops, and as you suggested they were planning such OP for 1 year. And there whole OP stopped because 40 of our men erected tent at PP14? What the fuck.
    They seriously need to re evaluate there military planning if this is the case. Without any contingencies/back up, nor any will in local commanders in PLA to fight a war, even a small skirmish.

    Further, I was reading Chinese want to control heights in Galwan, to watch indian road because of that incident happened. Seriously why you need to control heights for intelligence, dont you have ISR assets to get real time intelligence of DBO road.

    I think if no skirmish (and i mean proper skirmish like modern war, not with baton) happen till Oct, then it be good to conclude the local commanders of PLA are pathetic and there morale go down just by 40 men.

    ReplyDelete
  197. PrasunDa,

    Today Prime Minister Modi said that neither has China intruded into our border, nor has any post been taken over by them (China).

    https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1274004649230479360?s=20

    This means in order to secure the release of the 10 Indian Army officers, India has now given up claims from Finger 4 through Finger 8.

    Because obviously what he is saying cannot be true, else what was the fighting for. This means there is a realization in Delhi that there is no HOT Option that can be executed by the Indian Army.

    Thank You

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  198. Hi Prasun da,

    1. Will PLA even accept it's casualties and if yes , then when can we expect a formal.number / announcement.

    2. Ajai Shukala mentioned "Modi said nobody entered Indian territory. Has he conceded to China the Galwan River valley and Fingers 4-8 in Pangong Tso -- both on our side of the LAC -- and where Chinese troops now sit". Please explain. Is modi lying to the nation?

    3. How useful are apaches at high altitudes or they are just morale boosters?

    4. Why are we not targeting neelum valley , Chinese power projects and cpec infra in PoK against Chinese aggression in Ladakh ?

    5. Like in 1971 when Russia saved India by threatening China to invade and annex Xinjiang, do you see same role played by US and POTUS this time ?

    Thanks.

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  199. Hello Prasunji!
    After the PM's recent statement,I just want to ask two question related to it(Assuming others have already posted rest of the questions):
    1.Have we lost Galwan?It seems PM have endorsed exactly what the Chinese POV is.
    2.If yes,do you think it could be taken back this year or so?
    3.By the way sir,I have started learning new subjects like Design thinking in my engineering studies and I now could find sense in all your suggestions you make like stretching of ALH to meet Navy requirement.Have you done engineering?It seems you are an engineer by academics.
    4.After the release of Bolton's book,do you think Trump wouldn't get re-elected?

    Anyways,I really appreciate the service to the nation you are doing in the form of writing this blog.This is literally the first thing I check every morning even before brushing my teeth!You indeed have proven that India has got intellectuals who do think pragmatic and fact-full. Otherwise,we would have relied on some troll-class "analysts" who entirely lay claims by quoting amateur OSINT accounts.

    Thanks sirji....

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  200. 1st Galwan Valley is located on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control: China
    2nd modi's claim no one entered Indian territory, hence no one captured indian posts
    3rd now Chini Demanding that India “severely punish those” & “strictly discipline frontline troops by stating India “crossed LAC, trespassed into the Chinese territory of Galwan valley again.

    Now is there any doubt that India did not accept china's official stance?. Matter closed for the time being till chini encroaches one more place in Ladakh.

    bunch of jokers having no clue what to do.

    ReplyDelete