Thursday, January 21, 2021

Mischievous 'Dragonnade' By Clueless 'Desi Patrakaars'

Either unwittingly or as a result of sheer ignorance about historical realities, India’s ‘desi patrakaars’ have yet again managed to bring to the forefront of national discourse certain glaring and galling judgmental errors of successive Govts of India since the late 1950s that China has since 1987 succeeded in exploiting in pursuance of its own national interests.

The latest in a series of ‘EXCLUSIVE Revelations’ has taken this form:

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-has-built-village-in-arunachal-pradesh-show-satellite-images-exclusive-2354154

Now let us begin identifying the factual flaws in that above-mentioned news-report. Firstly, the news-report claims that a new township has been built by China approximately 4.5km within Indian territory. That this claim is ludicrous is proven by the fact that the news-report relies on GoogleEarth imagery to represent India’s border with China (i.e. the line drawn in red, which shows the McMahon Line and not the Line of Actual Control, or LAC). Secondly, the news-report fails to mention that it was India herself that chose to forego her adherence to the McMahon Line back in 1993 and instead embraced the term LAC along with its sanctity. It may be recalled that the Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace & Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China border Areas was signed between the then Prime Ministers Narasimha Rao of India and Li Peng of China at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on September 7, 1993. This agreement began by reiterating the five principles of peaceful co-existence, and had stipulated that the two sides should seek solutions to the border disputes through peaceful means: the two sides should not use force or threaten to use force; before the final solution to the border issue, two sides will strictly respect and obey the LAC; the military strength of reach side in the respective area of the LAC should be kept at minimum size, which serves to match the relationship of friendly neighbourhood between the two countries; the two sides should reduce the armed forces to the limit reached between them in the areas along the LAC, etc. In 1993, for the implementation of the afore-mentioned agreement, a special working group composed of diplomats and military experts was established. In 1995, China and India agreed to withdraw from the two confronting outposts at Sumdorong Chu near the LAC and agreed that they would never enter them. This was followed on November 29, 1996 by the Agreement between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the People’s Republic of China on Confidence-Building Measures in the Military Field Along the LAC in the India-China Border Areas.

Thirdly, the news-report fails to mention that the construction of such settlements by China all along the India-China Border Areas as well as along the Bhutan-China Border Areas had commenced as far back as 2016. Beijing had at that time mandated that all existing villages in such areas be transformed into Townships at a cost of 100 million Yuan (US$14.5 million). Since then, several such townships have sprung up in Cona County and Lhunze county in the Shannan prefecture of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), as well as in the Gongzhangpu in Luoza County along the Bhutan-China frontier. Townships already under habitation in Cona County include Le, Lebugou, Jiba, Gongri, and Menba. Cona covers a total area of 34,979 sq km, of which 10,094 sq km runs along the LAC. The lengths of Cona’s borders with India and Bhutan are 213km and 55km, respectively. The 2016 plans called for Cona to relocate 3,222 people of 960 families to the state-built townships on a voluntary basis, with the distances between the relocation destinations being less than 2km in a straight line and 5km on the ground. The relocation project is also for dealing with the problem of a weakening border force, caused by the outflow of residents throughout the past decade.

In Le Township, people between 18 and 65 years old patrol the border areas once or twice a month, covering more than 100km and spending three or four days each time. For them, herding is patrolling and living is guarding the frontier. While the mountains, water and cloud has not changed for decades and their responsibility to safeguard the country’s land remains, their lives are undergoing fundamental changes. Seventy-two villagers from 24 households in Le moved from their old wooden houses to modern Tibetan-style buildings and houses in 2018. It is a stark contrast from the villagers’ dwellings several years ago. The new houses have water, electricity and internet access. The biggest house in the township covers more than 200 sq meeers and the dirt-road has been transformed to an asphalted road. A plaza, tourists’ reception centre (only for local tourists, since foreigners are barred from entry) and commercial zone have also been built.

To date, 134 people from 40 households in three other villages with harsh natural conditions to Menba Township. Also located in Shannan, Yumai village in Lhunze County was China’s least populous administrative village, with only 32 people of nine families there in 2017. Now, there are been 191 people from 56 households settling in this upgraded Township since the relocation project started there in 2017. Including Lhunze and Cona, the four border counties in Shannan prefecture are all actively promoting the relocation project, which involves some 6,000 residents in total. The prefecture is also planning to relocate people from non-border counties to its border ones. The latest such effort is a Township located on the banks of the River Tsari Chu, with 101 homes. At the end of 2019, construction material had reached Zari. In April 2020, work began on clearing the ground and by mid-August, the township was ready for habitation. By 2018, Beijing was claiming that all 12 counties in Shannan prefecture had been lifted out of poverty, and border villages like Le and Simu were prospering with tourism and Tibetan handicrafts industries.

Gongzhangpu in Luoza County was once just a pasture. Since March 2017, 20 people from 10 families have voluntarily moved to the Township. Gongzhangpu is 4,674 metres above sea level. The climate is very harsh and winter is the only season. The residents have to overcome the cold and lack of oxygen to patrol the area. They always patrol around and write ‘China’ with brushes and red paint on some mountain-walls and stones. Some people also use stones to make five stars or sickles and axes of the Communist Party of China’s emblem, and paint all the stones red.

Construction of similar Townships is now underway along the LAC in areas opposite Asaphila, Bishing, Menchuka, Walong and Yangtse.

Chinese Encroachment Or Voluntary Territorial Surrender?
This can only be answered after tracing the sequence of past events, starting with the explanation of what exactly was the McMahon Line, followed by details about the Indian Army’s plans for militarily defending it and why such plans were never implemented, what prevented the Indian Army from re-entering NEFA (Arunachal Pradesh) after November 1962 right till October 1963, and the details about the Colombo Plan that China began to disregard since the mid-1980s.

McMahon Line Explained
Plans For Defending NEFA Against China’s Aggression
The Colombo Plan
Neither China nor India created any demilitarised zone along the LAC and instead both re-established their military outposts in the border areas, albeit at a safe distance from one another. For India, however, the PLA presence in the Upper Subansiri district on the banks of the River Tsari Chu since November 1962 has led to the loss of claimed-territory since India until August 1959 had a presence further up north at Longju. The PLA began building such outposts since 1987 and by the year 2000 had built permanent structures in this area.
Deceptions Of Indian Army HQ After The Ceasefire
From the above, we can thus conclude that:

1) After the Sumdorong Chu standoff/Wangdung incident, India decided to tacitly accept China’s presence south of the McMahon Line and has not contested any such presence.

2) India also decided to display diplomatic fatigue by not holding China accountable for violating its own pledges that were contained in the Colombo Plan, and instead acquiescing to Beijing’s demand that the McMahon Line be done with forever and in its place the abstract perception of the LAC be formally accepted (which was done in 1993 and 1996).

3) By agreeing in 2005 and 2010 that any future boundary settlement arrangement will not involve settled populations/communities on either side of the notional LAC, India presented China with all the legal justifications that the latter had required for building permanent settlements within territory that India still claims to be her own (as per her political map), but over which India has since 1959 not exercised any territorial or administrative jurisdiction.

4) The Indian Army’s failure to keep the Govt of India on-the-loop regarding the absence of a military presence inside NEFA between late November 1962 and early October 1963 has left a permanent scar within successive Govts of India and it is for this very reason that successive Govts of India have insisted on the ITBP continuing to be under the command of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs and acting as a watchdog to verify the Indian Army’s dispositions, movements and deployments all along the LAC.
New PLA-BDR Garrison Facility (below) Opposite Sora Funnel in North Sikkim

52 comments:

  1. China’s Townships in Border Areas Along LAC:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYoEd4-mVQg
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg8_Wuh4bnI
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4drBChREmY
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEa40SPvztk
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6i3SFOcZP0

    Was Govt of India Sleeping WRT Arunachal Pradesh?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMPoRT0Khf8

    Iran EX in Makran Coast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A11hEaxvvpM

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Chinese Encroachment Or Voluntary Territorial Surrender?"

    Sir, You are a genius. Mango men will find this too hard to digest. Let's see whether poor desi patrakaar fellas picking this reality or not from this thread. And if they picked it and subsequent govt's response, interesting rather would be fun to watch.

    As usual excellent thread. You too joined the hands with the west it seems.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Pakistani media seems overjoyed .. and have reason to be .. From being called an important partner by the new Secretary of state of the US and revived military aid. To their verbal support on pakistans Kashmir POV. Tough challenges ahead for the Indian State don't you think Prasun Da.
    On a side note if the new US administration repairs relations with Iran, do you think it would be possible to supply US troops via Iran politically? Hence reducing the dependance of the US on pakistan.

    ReplyDelete
  4. To DASHU: VMT. Will upload the scanned pages from already-published reference books on this issue later today. I had to explain it because there are several folks out there who still cannot figure out the full consequences of India abandoning the boundary concepts of the McMahon Line & Johnson-Ardagh Line back in 1993 & rushing in to adopt the undefined LAC concept, for which the China Study Group's members of that time (like Shiv Shankar Menon, Sujan Chinoy etc etc) should be held accountable. If India had rejected the adoption of the LAC back in 1960 & 1963, then how come the LAC was embraced wholeheartedly back in 1993? So, who took the wrong decision? Pandit J L Nehru back in 1963, or P V Narasimha Rao & all successive PMs from 1993 onwards? These are the questions still crying out for answers, but no one wants to raise them for fear of being shown the mirror! Perhaps this is also why India continues to publish political maps showing her traditional boundary-claims & not publishing a single map that depicts the LAC as perceived by her.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Prasunda

    Additional to my queries in the last post I have an important query.

    Does India have conventionally armed agni missiles also, other than nuclear ones ?

    Considering that PLA has over 2000 medium and short range ballistic missiles, I hope we aren't only relying on the brahmos.

    At the end of the day however good the brahmos missile is, it doesn't have the legs to strike deep inside China and inflict any damage to Chinese industry or cities ..

    Cheers
    Chanakya

    ReplyDelete
  6. Prasun,
    Your comments please!
    https://youtu.be/2uwsGS6vFFs

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear Sir,

    Reply from Vishnu NDTV.
    https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1352295621776998400?s=19

    Someone share ur blog link to him. Z check reply.

    ReplyDelete
  8. To KARNFLAKES: LoLz! Pure disinformation as always. Firstly, no one from the US has said anything about restoration of military aid. Instead, there is only talk about restoration of IMET, i.e. allowing Pakistani military officers to select US military academic institutions. Secondly, no one ever has endorsed Pakistan’s narrative on J & K. Instead, the US Democrats have restricted their comments only to the human rights situation within J & K, which also includes the communal cleansing within the Valley that led to the forced exodus of J & K’s native Kashmiri Pandit communities. And based purely on national interests, it will be impossible for the US to make peace with Iran because the latter has nothing significant to offer to the US as a QUID PRO QUO, i.e. Iran has expended most of its bargaining powers due to its own ill-conceived geo-political ambitions.

    To CHANAKYA CHATTERJEE: Nor does China have conventionally-armed IRBMs or MRBMs capable of striking deep inside enemy territory. BMs like DF-21C/D & DF-26 are equipped with EMP-generating warheads for use during naval battles. Furthermore, as I had already explained before, China has amassed a huge arsenal of conventionally-armed TBMs because it lacks deep-strike interdictors of the type possessed by the IAF, like the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3, Su-30MKI & now the Rafales. Hence, China becomes a nett loser since its TBMs can be used only once for a strike, whereas the IAF’s deep-strike interdictor aircraft can be repeatedly used for conducting deep-strikes.

    ReplyDelete
  9. To ANWAY: LoLz! That desi patrakaar’s ‘bandalbaazi’ has been exposed by none other than himself & that only further reveals how ill-informed such nitwits are. Kindly allow me to explain the finer details, within which the devil always lurks: Firstly, what has been officially published by the Survey of India are POLITICAL MAPs & here they are:

    https://www.surveyofindia.gov.in/documents/pol4m121020PR.jpg

    https://surveyofindia.gov.in/files/Arunachal%20Pradesh.pdf

    Nowhere will you find in them any mention or usage of the term LAC. And that’s because the LAC is just a series of patrolling point limits that are joined together to denote areas under one’s administrative control & that too as a temporary arrangement until formal delineation & demarcation of any IB takes place under a bilateral process between the 2 countries. Consequently, no one in his/her right mind will ever officially publish any map showing either the LoC or LAC since it will totally eliminate the legitimacy of any political map & one’s territorial claims. And that is also why China publishes its official map showing Arunachal Pradesh as ‘Southern Tibet’ & not indicating any LAC. Here’s the political map of China:

    http://www.vidiani.com/maps/maps_of_asia/maps_of_china/detailed_political_and_administrative_map_of_china_in_english_and_chinese.jpg

    The respective perceptions of the LAC of both China & India are thus never published & are strictly available on a ‘need-to-know’ basis for the purposes of patrolling by by China’s PLA-BDR & India’s IA/ITBP units.

    Secondly, as a consequence of the above, this NDTV-doctored map is a total misrepresentation that can have serious legal consequences for anyone publishing it:

    https://c.ndtvimg.com/2021-01/gvoidvas_china-village-high-res-4_625x300_18_January_21.jpg

    In fact, it is evident from this misrepresentation that the term LAC has been inserted/superimposed by NDTV & I challenge anyone & all to produce in any court of law the complete political map of either China or India where the term LAC is clearly mentioned & is visible to the naked eye. In fact, such misrepresentation by NDTV can easily be subjected to punitive legal proceedings under a PIL filed with any court of law in India, since NDTV chose to wrongly display the political map of India while inserting the term LAC inside it without authorisation by the Govt of India. Such photoshopping efforts are ILLEGAL by any stretch of imagination & I for one have already brought this to the concerned authorities in the Union MHA. Such acts cannot & must never go unpunished and this is the only way left to halt the ‘chalta hai’ attitude of the ‘desi patrakaars’.

    Finally, here’s another proof about India never publishing for public consumption any map that shows the delineation &/or demarcation of the LAC:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thto-bmMQ08

    ReplyDelete
  10. 1)There is probability of an Indo-China war anytime after 3-4 yrs where Pakistan may also join to open second front as predicted by few experts. In your assesment - What will be the probable outcome of this two front war: Will it end in stalemate & Indian military will be able to prevent territorial loss or will India lose territory?

    2)By when will all 83 Tejas MK1/MK1A be delivered by HAL?

    3)HAL Chief said that Tejas MK2 will enter production by 2025-26 as they will not wait for IOC/FOC certification to start full scale production..The service induction & certification will be parallel process. Is this possible


    THANKS.
    AMIT

    ReplyDelete
  11. Is Hawk-i gaining interest from IAF..
    After long silence recent SAAW test fire making us curious to know...
    With Tejas MK1A local industry eco system going to get boost..What are other projects where Indian system going to be ordered..
    Regarding small arms rifle do we have chance for Indian products..
    Can idea forge Hybrid UAV be used from ship deck..

    ReplyDelete
  12. To AMIT: 1) It all depends on how quickly the IA is able to rebalance & restructure itself and how soon the IA‘s & IAF’s joint warfighting tactics attain maturity. 2) Realistically, not before 2031. 3) If HAL can do so, then it will be ther first aircraft manufacturer to attain such a feat. Is that technologically possible, even from an industrial standpoint? Most definitely not, because the MWF will be brand-new design & not just another iteration of the Tejas Mk.1A’s design.

    To BUDDHA: 1) No. The I-HAWK is HAL’s own in-house venture & hence it is a HAL-owned aircraft & is not on loan from the IAF. But the I-Hawk does serve as a platform from which various types of standoff air-to-ground PGMs can be test-fired/test-launched & from this several of the reqd data-points can be obtained for developing the software algorithms for those weapons management processors & stores management systems that will make their way on-board operational platforms like Tejas Mk.1A & MWF. 2) Several types of small-arms developed by OFB have already been ordered by several State Police agencies & also by CAPFs. IdeaForge's hybrid mini-UAS platforms cannot be used in the high seas due to strong winds & hence the IN will require heavier UAS like Northrop Grumman's Fire Scout.

    ReplyDelete
  13. This is a criminal offense and will only help China to formalize/normalize these settlements. Now the media outlets are publishing the Chinese response that this is inside their territory.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Sir, I have read at some places that actual number of su-30mki procured by India till date is 312 & not 272. is it true?

    40 procured secretly off the shelf??

    ReplyDelete
  15. prasun,

    Now that mk1a order is being firmed up is there now a more accurate data on the service life of the jet

    ReplyDelete
  16. Mr. Prasun
    1)Can Su-30mki in its current form perform deep strike missions?

    2)Jaguar IS/Darin 3 is not yet in service only by 2025 all 56 Jaguars will be upgraded till then only Rafales are our Deep strike a/c and only 36 while PLA has 100s of TBMs and PLAAF it's capabilities wrt operating in TAR and XUAR are improving at a rapid pace?

    3) Even if we take out their SAMs and a/c they can sustain high attrition rate but we can't wrt both a/c and SAMs?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  17. Prasun da,

    Pl provide me the link where you explained all the claim lines like Ardagh–Johnson Line,Ardagh–Johnson Line,McMahon Line,1959 line,1962 line etc.

    ReplyDelete
  18. @Prasunda
    VMT. We surely need to pivot away from the LAC. Chinese actions over the past few months have made it easier for us to renege on all past agreements. This should also be used to go back on using the LAC as the Lakshman Rekha for our administrative reach and go back to the McMahon Line.

    Two questions-
    1. What will the Indian Government do?
    2. What should the Indian Government do?

    ^Avi

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hi Prasun,

    When can we expect the induction of the rest of the Rafales?

    Regards,
    Preetesh

    ReplyDelete
  20. Prasun Da, with reference to your above conclusion, regarding Chinese Settlement along LAC and inside the McMahon Line, or Indian claimed territory, now what's the option remain for India ?

    ReplyDelete
  21. To HARSH: Not secretly, but orders for them were placed with IRKUT Corp back in 2011. The total reqmt is for 350 as per the umbrella agreement inked in the year 2000.

    To JUST_CURIOUS: The TTSL of the airframe was specified as being 4,000 flight-hours. Hence the half-life or TBO will be 2,000 hours. The credible TTSL figure will emerge only after the first IAF Tejas Mk.1 to log 2,000 flight-hours undergoes its first overhaul & only after stripping its airframe then will it be revealed whether or not the airframe’s TBO & TTSL can be firther extended to 5,000 hours or 6,000 hours.

    To AARPEE: 1) Yes, but by flying at medium altitudes, since the airframe isn’t certified for undertaking terrain-hugging flight profiles & hence the NO-11M ‘Bars’ PESA-MMR does not have terrain-avoidance operatinbg mode. 2) Only 2 upgraded Jaguar IS/DARIN-3s have entered service & the rest will by 2025. In fact, the IAF is considering upgrading more Jaguar IS to bring the number to 80. 3) PLAAF cannot sustain high attrition rates because NONE of their existing combat aircraft can undertake terrain-hugging flight-profiles. The PLAAF’s deep-strike capabilities with manned combat aircraft don’t have multi-mode radars with terrain-avoidance operating modes.

    To SUSAN: here they are:

    https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/06/china-india-boundary-dispute-how-it-all.html

    https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/06/how-successive-cartographic-errors-have.html

    I have also uploaded above 2 slides showing both claim-lines.

    To AVI & SUMANTA NAG: What will the Govt of India do? What it is doing right now, i.e. blaming previous Govts of India for their judgmental errors. What should the Govt of India do? Revert back to the traditional claim-lines, since it is China that has reneged on both the 1993 & 1996 agreements & has now officially stated that its claim-lines of 1960 are what it is now adhering to, while in reality back in 1962 the PLA went further west of the 1960 claim-line & continues to occupy far more territory than China had claimed back in 1960. India should also from now on lay claim to the territories around Lake Mansarovar that had been given by Tibet to the Princely State of J & K under the 1842 Chushul Treaty, since the 1954 Panchsheel Treaty under which India ceded sovereignty over such territories is no longer valid, as that Treaty had a validity period of only 8 years & ity had expired by June 1962. Consequently, this gives India the perfect legal justification to lay claim over those territories that once belonged to the Princely State of J & K between 1842 & 1954.

    And while in the rest of the world all expos have been postponed, these desi idiots are doing just the opposite:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nv_47FbQAvY
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKUY-fiQmE4

    With just 2 weeks to go, to claim that the list of foreign exhibitors hasn’t yet been finalised speaks volumes about the ineptitude of the expo organisers!

    SIDM Seminar on Indian Army & Military Industrialisation:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0aNYp1CXbs
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2bVP0PmkYs

    To PREETESH: By 2023. If a second tranch of another 36 Rafales is ordered, then delivery of those from the first tranche of 36 Rafales can be expedited.

    ReplyDelete
  22. As per this rebuttal it does not matter what line we claim or name. China does not recognize the mcmahon line with india
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213315.shtml

    ReplyDelete
  23. To SANGOS: The report does not say that. But it instead says that China does not recognise the WHOLE of Arunachal Pradesh as being part of India (refer to the weblink above of China's political map). China had recognised the McMahon Line as being legitimate when it came to the delineation/demarcation of the China-Myanmar IB & until 1959 was amenable to doing the same with India BUT ONLY IF India ceded the Aksai China area to China. But since 1984 that policy changed & by 1988 China had begun claiming the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as its sovereign territory & by 1993 its claims got strengthened even further in legal terms when India decided to adopt the concept of LAC, i.e. by definition the LAC now is just a temporary ceasefire line whose perceptions differ for both countries, thereby creating further uncertainties.

    Similarly, WRT Sikkim, although China recognised it as being part of India back in 2003, it also stated that it does not mean China has a settled IB with Sikkim & consequently even the boundary of Sikkim remains undefined as per China's definition & hence forms part of the overall LAC. And this very agrument was forwarded by Beijing during the Doklam standoff back in 2017.

    But I'm not too perturbed by these new townships, since they have for some strange reason been cited along river-banks (which flow southwards from the Himalayan crest into India) that tend to swell during the monsoon season & therefore it can only be expected that sooner than later such townships will either be swept away by the overflowing rivers or be totally destroyed by landslides.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The township at Tsari Chu is south of mcmahon ie india claimed territory but occupied by china before the term 'LAC' existed.
      BTW PRC and ROC claim to 'WHOLE' of AP is erroneous cause their cooked up line does NOT include the districts bordering Myanmar. Guess it's bit too far from Beijing/Taipei to see clearly.

      Delete
  24. Prasunda

    China has a few thousand conventionally armed missiles for the specific role of overwhelming India's air superiority in the Himalayas and to inflict substantial damages to India's commercial, industrial and political establishments.

    Shouldn't India have atleast a few hundred conventionally armed medium and long range missiles to pay back China in the same coin, especially since using strike aircraft for everything would mean risking pilots against China's formidable Air defense.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  25. mr.prasun

    1)Can the Jaguar Darin 2 which is currently in service perform deep strike missions inside TAR or XUAR?

    2)what are the Deep strike a/c of PLAAF which will be employed against us?

    2)Were 40 Arjun Catapults delivered?

    Thank you

    aarpee

    ReplyDelete
  26. PKS Sir,

    Whether is there any connection between lost Gold of Japanese General Yamashita's and our Indian National Army?

    Regards
    AKS

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi Prasun,

    Will the follow-on order for Rafales fructify? Against an originally envisaged 186 Rafales we are staring at just 36 and an iffy follow-on tranche of 36 Rafales.
    The government doesn't seem too inclined?

    Regards,
    Preetesh

    ReplyDelete
  28. Dear Prasun,

    How would IAF overcome the S-400 acquired by PLA?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Dear PKS Sir,

    In view of the standoff between India and China, I'm stiil not able to comprehend the actions by our Govt.! As I see it, a neighbour has entered our land and threatening us to vacate it with whatever fictitious justification it presents, and we are still bickering around, not getting our house in order, and giving justifications that we have presented a stalemate by matching the force levels of the enemy!! Plz make me understand in layman terms what the hell are we contemplating when we have every capability within us? Is there any other player involved? Plz provide ur wisdom!!

    Regards
    AKS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sir,

      India lacks capability though India has potential. The rest is too droll a narrative

      Delete
  30. https://twitter.com/ArchonsIn/status/1352264074915008516?s=19

    Sir,
    What's your opinion on that he might be suffering with alzheimer?

    ReplyDelete
  31. @Prasunda

    Do you foresee a quick transgression well into Chinese claimed territories and beyond our perception of the LAC and doing as the Chinese did? Settle there forever, build constructions, erect villages etc.?

    ^Avi

    ReplyDelete
  32. To CHANAKYA CHATTERJEE: As I had explained earlier, China has invested in BMs to reach those targets that cannot come under the reach of its combat strike aircraft assets. The IAF on the other hand has such strike aircraft assets armed with ALCMs & hence there’s no need for acquiring conventionally armed MRBMs & IRBMs. Instead, only tactical NLOS-SS-BSMs like Pralay need to be acquired.

    To AARPEE: 1) Yes, of course. 2) Primarily the JH-7As & Su-30MKKs. 3) Not yet.

    To PREETESH: Follow-on orders will have to be placed simply because there is no other alternative. But the numbers will be kept to 80 because the Super Su-30MKIs will be able to conduct deep-strikes by flying at low-levels while operating in terrain-avoidance mode.

    To AKS: No, there is none, since most of the INA’s treasury was located in Singapore & back in 1946 the then Viceroy Lord Mountbatten had despatched Pandit Nehru there to lay claim to that treasury, which today is estimated to be valued at Rs.86,000 crore!

    To ASD: With this, which is receiving a lot of attention from IAF HQ nowadays:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsWfCjcVkAABdAq?format=jpg&name=medium

    But far more worrying are open acts of war being committed by Pakistan, while no punitive deterrence is being undertaken by India to prevent such acts from happening:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXPdomQsUSg

    A cross-border tunnel—around 150-metre-long and 30-foot-deep—was unearthed by the Border Security Force (BSF) along the Working Boundary in Jammu’s Pansar area between Border Post Number 14 and 15 (opposite Abhiyal-Dogra and Kingre-de-Kothe in Shakargarh) on January 23, 2021, the fourth such tunnel found in the past six months in the Samba, Hiranagar and Kathua areas. Around 10 such tunnels were unearthed in Jammu region in the past one year. The BSF had also shot down a Pakistani hexacopter carrying 5.5kg load of weapons (one M4 carbine) and ammunition (seven China-made hand-grenades) in June 2020 around the same spot. An infiltration bid was also foiled in November 2019 in the same area. A tunnel—around 150-metre-long, 15 to 20-foot-deep and 3-foot-wide—was detected on November 22, 2020. On January 13, 2021, another such tunnel—around 30-foot-deep and 150 metres-long—was spotted in Bobiyaan village of Samba district’s Hiranagar sector. Sandbags recovered from the tunnel have 2016-17 year of manufacture which suggest that it is an old tunnel. In 2020, the BSF detected two tunnels in Samba district on August 28 (in the Galar area) and November 22, following successful infiltration by two groups of terrorists who were subsequently neutralised in separate encounters along Jammu-Srinagar National Highway while they were en route to the Kashmir Valley in trucks. While three Pakistani terrorists affiliated with Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) were eliminated in a gunfight in Nagrota area near Jammu after they were intercepted aboard a Kashmir-bound truck in January 2020, another group of Pakistani terrorists armed with weapons and a large quantity of grenades were killed at the same spot on November 19, 2020.

    To AVI: I don’t foresee, but I am of the view that they can be undertaken in the following areas: near Longju above the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh; near the Karakoram Pass to the northwest of DBO.

    To KAUSTAV: Interview of CIDS VADM R Hari Kumar (likely to become the next CNS):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdAftZwtJxI

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  33. Plenty of innovations from the EME Corps & the CME:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqQDoDXtywM&t=1s

    I had always advocated that the armed services' in-house intellectual talents were terribly under-utilised & hence the armed forces lost out several times in terms of grabbing financially viable military-industrial opportunities. For instance, instead of decommissioning & selling its Centurion & AMX-13 tanks to South Africa & Singapore in the early 1980s, the EME & the CME should have been tasked to suggest conceptual transformations of such armoured vehicles into various types of support vehicles, like minefield-clearing trawls, armoured bridgelayers & engineering vehicles, command-n-control vehicles, and recce/scout vehicles equipped with battlefield surveillance sensors, but to name a few. Even now there are several hundreds of Vijayanta tanks that can be up-armoured & retrofitted with new powerpacks for serving as Tank-Support Armoured Vehicles & tracked SP mortar carriers, which in turn will do away with the need for undertaking deep upgrades of BMP-2K ICVs for at least another decade.

    To ARPIT KANODIA: Unlikely. Instead it could well have been the rush of adrenalin duriong periods of excitement.

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  34. Rare 130mm self-propelling catapult video and Vijayanta tanks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DP4_yfCksc

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  35. Prasun Da, what does the supply chain for a missile's propulsion system look like? I mean from sourcing raw materials right up to the end user? Thank You

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  36. Sir,

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-autos-chips/germany-urges-taiwan-to-help-ease-auto-chip-shortage-idUKKBN29T04V?edition-redirect=uk

    Time for Indian govt to lay out the red carpet for TSMC to relocate those sanctioned factories in China to India.

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  37. prasun,

    1- this jaguar upgrade program is seriously confounding , you r suggeting that the IAf may opt for 80 upgraded jags but aren't they all supposed to be retired latest by 2035.. is there any value in doing the upgrades at all?
    2- more paki tunnels do these kind of stuff ever get raised in FATf, security council to firmly put pakis in the dock?
    3- while you had once shared details of Super sukhoi which included russia izdeliye 30 engine & su 57 based AESA radar, recent news about HAL proposing a totally indigenous super sukhoi program is making rounds minus the engine upgrade but having an improved ver of uttam.. what is the status of this will it go tyhe jaguar way? or get inked during putin's forthcomming visit

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  38. To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: The specialised alloys all come from either MIDHANI or from the steel-producing PSUs. These are then sent for machining to either the DPSUs or private-sector companies & it is also there that all components & sub-systems built by Tier-3/2/1 vendors are installed & integrated.

    To ANWAY: And as an added incentive aimed at making TSMC’s products more competitive, the Govt of India could supply TSMC with ‘desi’ technological know-how of this type:

    https://theprint.in/india/cow-dung-chip-reduces-cell-phone-radiation-by-60-test-report-by-govt-cow-agency-claims/591135/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9iwwDtQ7zA

    To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Decommissioning will begin from 2035, not by 2035. More than 125 Jaguars were procured by the IAF & hence out of this 80 canm easily be upgraded & re-engined to serve for another 15 years. 2) FATF deals only with financial malpractices related to terrorism. Hence all convictions in Pakistani courts thus far have given sentences related to only financial malpractices. 3) As I had already explained before, availability of Uttam AESA-MMR won’t be before 2026 & hence Russia will supply the AESA-MMR as well as low-band jammers. The turbofan replacement project has been cancelled due to budgetary constraints. If I’m not mistaken, Putin’s visit had been postponed last year itself.

    https://twitter.com/HumasBakamlaRI/status/1353260356752138240

    Indonesia's Coast Guard has secured two tankers engaged in an unauthorized STS (Ship-to-Ship) transfer of oil in Pontianak Waters, West Kalimantan, while (mandatory) AIS was switched off. One of them is the Iranian VLCC "HORSE", which supplied 2 million barrels of gas condensate to Venezuela.

    Russia’s Stance on LAC Standoff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rovQDAEEEgw

    R & D on Tempest Gen-6 MRCA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rx-Rey3bA-M

    Pakistan Navy to Host 7th Multinational Maritime Exercise "Aman" in Karachi Next Month:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9wx_ur6Q-8

    China’s Naval Weaknesses:

    https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/CSBA8239_(Seizing_on_Weakness_Report)_Web.pdf

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  39. Scientific explanations on China's underwater surveys in IOR:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3vR5JRa3P0&t=30s

    HAL's View on Tejas Mk.1A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl3aiPaMikU

    Experts' Views on Tejas Mk.1A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8vMdza50nM&t=2s

    China's Digital Currency Explained: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ew9b3OLZ3Xc

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  40. Purvanchal Expressway Awaits the Rafales: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJDas4Ne21w

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indian-chinese-troops-clashed-in-north-sikkim-last-week-officials-101611556633254.html

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  41. I heard that QRSAM has been already inducted in Leh bypassing user trials. Any truth?

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  42. Sir,

    NGARM?

    https://ibb.co/L11nSDz

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  43. Does Indian military installations have adequate AD capability to detect & shoot down PGMs & UAV/UCAVs? In my opinion we don't have because during Op Swift Retort we were unable to intercept/shoot down the PGMs launched by PAF's jets.

    Is there any plan being implemented to protect our military installations from PGM attacks?

    Regards,
    HARSHVARDHAN

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  44. Akash-NG test fired for the first time. What’s the difference between MRSAM and it since they both are using dual pulse motors and have similar range? Is it just a desi version of MRSAM?

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  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  46. To SANJEEV: The world over, including in India, even household/kitchen utensils cannot be used prior to their user-trials & subsequent quality certification. And so only a MORON can spread false canards like QR-SAM being service-inducted without user-trials! Akash-NG’s details have been uploaded in the following thread.

    To ANWAY: PRALAY SS-BSM.

    To HARSHVARDHAN: Those solutions are ‘work in progress’ & are explained in the following thread.

    To ABS: And the very same to you & all your loved ones. 1) All Corps, be it Strike or Pivot, will have tailor-made IBGs for the plains, desert & high-altitude plateaux. 2) That arena is still suffering from doctrinal deficiencies & a lot more work has to be done WRT joint forces warfighting by the IA & IAF involving both paratroopers & specialised air-mobile/air-assault formations that have yet to be raised. 3) It may well be the DESIRED end-game, but not a practical or achievable one, because the deployment of only 2 PLAGF Divisions hardly qualifies as an offensive force. Instead, as I had explained earlier, more & more folks are accepting my hypothesis about China using this mobilisation along the LAC to keep India’s Mountain Divisions occupied along the LAC while Pakistan succeeds in completing the various processes required for annexing Gilgit-Baltistan, which in turn will secure China’s CPEC-related investments. 4) China has acted smartly in creating such townships/settlements ONLY in those areas where India did not either patrol since 1959 or from where India withdrew, as in Longju. But in any case, siting such settlements along rivers or their tributaries id downright dangerous as they can easily be swept away during the annual monsoon floods. IMHO, the best way to defeat China is to mobilise India’s comprehensive national power for socio-economic upliftment in all spectrums of activity, as this will prove that all-inclusive democratic set-ups can achieve the same degree of progress at the same speed as totalitarian dictatorships. This will earn India far greater laurels worldwide, as exemplified by India’s now-underway global vaccine diplomacy.

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  47. Prasun,
    Heartiest congratulations on the occasion of the Republic day to you and all your loved ones!
    Do enlighten me on whether all the sensible and well meaning advice that you propund in this blog is being registered by this government or not!
    It appears to me that the agitation in Delhi against the farm laws is going the same way as the one against CAA Shaheen baby,riots and what not.It appears that the agitation is soon heading for bloodshed.Your comments are sought on the issue please!

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  48. dear sir,
    1. can u tell at what stage is the police reforms are ? are there any change they be expedited soon wrt to yesterday's embarrassment?
    2. can u elaborate how RAW & IB work? do u think IB needs serious reforms as to current threat? do u have any idea how our nuclear scientists were killed during 2009 nuclear plant fiasco?
    3. regarding the farm laws, are the protests due to fears of middlemen and punjab's overdependence on farming, that the lose 60%-70% of MSP or any crony capitalism behind ?
    4. what r ur views on electronic media ?
    thank you
    Yogesh

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  49. Dear Prasunda

    Good day

    I read Kalashnikov May Have Bagged Strela 9М333 Guided Missile Deal With India.
    Is this true, why did we opt for thsi against the french and swedish offerings.
    Is this as good as the VERBA? overall is this a good choice?

    Kind regards
    Kiran

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  50. Hello Prasunda,

    Greetings, we hear there will be a fresh search for a carbine now that the Caracal-816 plans got derailed. Could you please enlighten us as to
    1. Why do we need a Carbine when we have automatic assault rifles like the SIG?
    2. Wouldn't a bull -pup or a short barreled AR's suffice? so the ammo is remains the same.
    3. What carbine would have been best suited for the IA.
    4. Whats the likely choice the IA will eventually make for the carbine?

    Thanks
    Kiran

    ReplyDelete