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Saturday, February 9, 2019

LCA-AF Mk.2's Fuselage Design Details Emerge, Plus BVRAAMs, LRAAMs & ASMs Powered By SFDR

The release of global RFIs on January 19, 2019 by India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) for the supply of three separate aircraft fuselage assembly jigs (one unit of each type) meant for fabricating the front, centre and rear fuselage sections of a single full-scale engineering-test model of the projected LCA-AF Mk.2 multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) is indicative of what the DRDO’s Bengaluru-based Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) had proposed back in 2014, and which can be viewed here:

It can thus be safely inferred that ADA has passed on the Design Applicability List (DAL) and Standard of Preparation (SOP) documentation to HAL for the full-scale engineering-test model of the projected LCA-AF Mk.2, which in turn will be used for optimising the design and location of the various mission avionics sub-systems/LRUs and related wiring harnesses, hydraulic pipings, accessories, and skin-level distributed apertures for sensors of the integrated EW suite, inclusive of radar warning receivers-cum-jamming emitters, laser warning receivers, and missile approach warning systems.

Simply put, jig-less assembly aims at reducing or eliminating the need for product-specific jigs during airframe assembly by developing new assembly concepts, models, tools and procedures. In the new concept of jig-less aircraft assembly, the end locators are replaced by transferring the holes directly on to the part. These holes are made by high-precision machines. In this approach, all the parts will have at least two holes so that one part can be assembled with the adjacent part. These holes are termed as ‘key holes’. In this method, the tooling elements (end locators) are eliminated and only the jig is used as the main assembly structure. This approach reduces the tool manufacturing time, reduces the product-dependent fixture and also increases the accuracy of the assembled product. It also results in a reduction of the number of tools and joints (rivets), and subsequently weight as well. And going hand-in-hand with jig-less assembly is the practice of using modular tooling solutions.
The most common tooling technology for aircraft assembly used today is conventional tooling consisting of steel beams that are welded together. Such toolings are tailored for a specific tooling operation. Since conventional tooling is designed to a specific application, each assembly has its own dedicated tooling, or product-specific tooling. In addition, when building a complex product like a MRCA, the final design is forced by changes that immediately affect the tooling design. This necessitates modifying the tooling/ locating holes or shimmed pick-ups to new locations. Hence, the preferred solution today is modular tooling, which is built for a dedicated purpose as well, but the surrounding system and distance supports are designed from a toolbox of modular components. The framework of modular tooling is screwed together. It thus helps in reducing the cycle-time of assembly, thereby enhancing the production rate. Modular tooling also helps to design jigs/ fixtures that will meet a group of components.
The front fuselage assembly jig for the LCA-AF Mk.2 will be made up of various modules like the composite radome, floor assembly, canopy, windscreen, starboard and portside air-intakes, twin canards, starboard and portside wing leading-edge root extensions. The assembly will comprise approximately 1,300 individual parts, out of which 40% are estimated to besheet metal, 30% being machined parts and the remaining 30% being made of carbon-fibre composites (CFC). The length of the assembly is 6,100mm, with a maximum width of about 1,100mm. The assembly will comprise 23 stations, and the entire assembly will weigh some 500kg. The component assembly will comprise the following attachment points: 1) Bulkheads for cockpit avionics 2) Nose landing gear pivot 3) Nose landing gear jack-point 4) Nose landing gear up-lock 5) Windscreen 6) Canopy 7) Wing leading-edge root extensions 8) Air intakes 9) Radome 10) Starboard side fixed air-to-air refuelling probe 11) Longerons 12) RLG-INS and GPS receiver mounting structure 13) Cockpit floor 14) Shear walls 15) Inclined bulkhead 16) Doors/hatches 17) Canards 18) Mooring points 19) Hauling points 20) Ejection seat brackets 21) Symmetry check-points 22) System installation brackets 23) Air data probes: Nose air data probe (NADP)/side air data probe (SADP)/Angle-of-attack/Angle-of- Side-slip (AOSS) locating points 24) Equipment bay housing the environmental control system (ECS), digital flight-control computer (DFCC), mission avionics, and an on-board oxygen generation system (OBOGS).
The centre fuselage assembly jig will be made up of modules such as: air-ducts and side-skins, spine, main landing gear bay, shear wall, fuel tanks, and a dividing wall structure. The assembly will comprise approximately 1,600 parts, out of which 40% will be sheet metal, 30% will be machined parts and remaining 30% are to be made of CFCs. The length of the centre fuselage is about 4,500mm with a maximum width of some 2,100mm. The centre fuselage assembly will comprise 15 stations and the it will weigh about 900Kg. Since the centre fuselage section needs to be coupled with the front and rear fuselage sections, the inter -changeability (ICY) media are critical. The centre fuselage assembly will comprise the following: i) Bulkheads 2) Trouser duct 3) Circular duct 4) Side-skin structure 5)Top-skin structure 6) Fuel Bay side-walls 7) Longerons 8) Shear walls 9) Doors and hatches 10) Fuel tanks 11) Main undercarriage 12) Spine structure 13) Wing pick-up points 14) Landing gear doors 15) Gun-bay structure (meaning the Gryazev-Shipunov GSh-23 cannon has been repositioned to the starboard side of the upper centre fuselage) 16) Lifting points 17) Other systems installation inter-changeability requirements 18) Symmetry points.
The Rear fuselage assembly jig will be made up of modules like the engine bay doors, spine and fin attachment, and brake parachute. This assembly will comprise approximately 900 parts, out of which 30% will be sheet metal, 40% will be machined parts and remaining 30% will be made of CFCs. The length of this section will be about 3,300mm with a maximum width of about 1,800mm. The rear fuselage assembly will comprise eight stations and the total shell-weight will be some 400Kg. The rear Fuselage needs to be coupled with the centre fuselage and hence the ICY media are critical. The assembly will include the following: 1) Bulkheads 2) Shear walls 3) Floors 4) Engine mounts 5) Doors 6) Wing attachment points 7) Covers/Hatches 8) Fin attachment points 9) Spine structure 10) Hauling attachment 11) Tie beam 12) Shroud 13) Trailing-edge extension 14) Elevon inboard actuator attachment 15) Symmetry points.
OEMs expected to respond to the RFIs will likely include Airbus Military Aircraft, BAE Systems, Leonardo Group’s Alenia Aeronautica subsidiary, Boeing, Dassault Aviation, Lockheed Martin, SaabTech and Russian Aircraft Corp. Subject to a contract award taking place by the year’s end, the three different assembly js will begin arriving at HAL by 2022, following which another three years will be required for optimising the design and location of the various mission avionics sub-systems/LRUs and related wiring harnesses, hydraulic pipings, accessories, and skin-level distributed apertures for EW sensors. Consequently, only by late 2026 will be it possible to roll out the first flying prototype of the LCA-AF Mk.2. Add to this 2,000 hours of flight-tests with four flying prototypes over a period of three years. So, for all intents and puposes, the LCA-AF Mk.2 will not enter series-production until 2030.
In another development, the successful ground-launch and flight-testing on February 8, 2019 of a solid-fuel ducted ramjet (SFDR) as the propulsion sustainer component that has been indigenously developed by the MoD-owned Defence R & D Organisation’s (DRDO) Hyderabad-based Defence R & D Laboratory (DRDL) for a futuristic beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) meant to destroy hostile MRCAs, makes India the sixth country after the US, Russia, France, South Africa and China to have achieved success in this arena of rocket propulsion.
The DRDL-developed SFDR on the DRDO-developed BVRAAM, which is initially using the missile-body of the indigenously developed Astra Mk.1 BVRAAM, comes attached to a solid-fuel rocket booster to propel the BVRAAM to speeds at which SFDR can start operating.
The SFDR cycle is the same as the ramjet cycle except that the fuel exists in solid form within the chamber and the stoichometry of combustion is controlled by the regression rate of the fuel. The fuel is not a propellant in the solid rocket motor sense, but a pure fuel, inert without external oxidizer much like in a hybrid rocket motor. A wide range of fuels can be used from polymers such as PMMA or PE to long-chain alkanes such as paraffin or cross-linked rubbers such as HTPB. Because the fuel exists in the solid form, inclusion of solid metals is significantly easier than in a liquid-fuelled ramjet. SFDRs also offer significant advantages such as: Extremely simple compared with liquid-fuelled rockets or ramjets since, in its simplest form, a SFDR is basically a tube with a fuel grain cast in it; higher fuel density in the solid phase for pure hydrocarbons and even higher if metal additives are used; easy inclusion of metal fuels such as boron, magnesium or beryllium, which raise the heat of combustion and/or the density and therefore the density impulse capability compared with liquid ramjets; solid fuel acts as an ablative insulator, allowing higher sustained combustion chamber exit temperature levels (and hence specific thrust) with less complexity; fuel is stored within the combustion chamber, allowing for more efficient packaging and higher mass fractions than liquid ramjets; and no need for pumps, external tankage, injectors or plumbing for fuel delivery.
The earliest known SFDR Patent was filed in the US by Cordant Technologies Inc as far back as 1959. The patent can be viewed here:

While the solid-fuel booster rocket/SFDR combination has been a tried-and-tested means of propulsion, it has limitations of maximum engagement ranges against agile and manoeuvring targets like manned combat aircraft, which can bleed the energy of the BVRAAM. To improve terminal-stage manoeuvring, present-day BVRAAMs use multi-pulse solid-fuel rocket motors, with the second pulse-firing taking place only in the terminal stages after the BVRAAM’s Ka- or Ku-band active seeker has locked on to its target. The MBDA-developed Meteor BVRAAM was the first to do away with the need for multi-pulse solid-fuel rocket motors by incorporating a throttleable ducted rocket (TDR) version of a solid-fuel ramjet developed by Germany-based Bayern-Chemie. The TDR functions as an extended sustainer with variable thrust being generated by a solid propellant, but can sustain high thrust-levels for far longer periods since it acquires its oxidiser from the air. However, both BVRAAMs and LRAAMs using SFDR have a limitation: ramjet motors are heavier and take time to reach maximum speed in the initial phases, and are thus less agile. Consequently, BVRAAMs and LRAAMs using SFDRs will be less effective against agile MRCAs, but the LRAAM will be highly effective against lumbering combat-support platforms like AEW & CS aircraft and aerial refuelling tankers.
Elsewhere in the world, Russia’s Vympel JSC (now part of Tactical Missiles Corp) had by the early 1990s completed developing the SFDR-powered RVV-AE-PD BVRAAM, which hosts rear-mounted lattice-type aerodynamic control surfaces. However, this BVRAAM has not yet been series-produced.
Instead, Russia has opted for a two-stage solid-propellant rocket propulsion system for its Novator R-172S LRAAM.
In the US, Raytheon had in the 1990s developed a SFDR-equipped FRAAM variant of the AIM-120 AMRAAM. But like the RVV-AE-PD, the FMRAAM has not yet entered series-production.
Throughout the late 1970s and 1990s, Somchem of South Africa pursued R & D on SFDR-based propulsion under Project Integral, with the objective being to power both BVRAAMs and MR-SAMs (developed by KENTRON) using SFDRs. The latter, known as SAHV, was first displayed in 1995 with a rounded glass nose-section housing an IIR guidance system.  To avoid over-heating of the IIR seeker during the MR-SAM’s Mach 2.3 flight to its target, the SAHV’s nose-section was fitted with a cap that was jettisoned only in the final stages of the engagement.
Making its debut at the Airshow China 2018 expo in Zhuhai last November was the HD-1, China’s first anti-ship missile using a solid-fuel ramjet combustor and a SFDR—both developed by CASC’s No.4 Institute. Developed and built by the Guangdong Hongda Mining Co, the 2,200kg HD-1’s maiden flight-test took place in October 2018. The HD-1, like the still-classified YJ-18 anti-ship missile, employs a tandem single-stage solid-propellant rocket booster—as opposed to wraparound boosters to reduce drag—for missile launch and acceleration to a forward velocity suitable for efficient operation of the ramjet’s intake system, which comprises four air-intakes arranged in an ‘X’ configuration around the missile body. Tapered control surfaces are mounted on the intake housings near the nozzles. The HD-1 has a length of 8.3 metres, with a missile body and booster diameter of 375mm and 650mm, respectively. Cruise speed is quoted as 2,716kph, while terminal cruise speed being 4,321kph, with the missile cruising at altitudes of up to 15km (49,212 feet) and performing sea-skimming manoeuvres at altitudes between 16 and 32 feet. The missile’s maximum range is 290km.
Coming back to the DRDO’s efforts to develop a BVRAAM or LRAAM using SFDR, the principal challenge remains the development of an internal data-link that will receive targetting cues from a friendly AEW & CS platform, since the AESA-MMR of the MRCA launching such an LRAAM will not be able to detect or track hostile combat-support platforms flying at distances beyond 300km. Furthermore, if the LRAAM is tasked with the destruction of hostile combat-support platforms, then the LRAAM will have a launch-weight of more than 250kg. However, if the idea is to develop a BVRAAM like the Meteor, then a maximum engagement range of 150km will suffice, while the launch-weight will have to be kept down to 220kg at most.

147 comments:

Aditya Kamble said...

Dear Prasun,
Looks like we have achieved quite a feat. But is there any development going on in DRDO to develop a WVRAAM.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Will the CAG report unequivocally show the Rafale deal to be clean or will it give more scope for yellow journalism based lies as are currently propagated by Pappu and friends?

2) To what extent could this propaganda against the Rafale deal depress the NDAs tally? If the NDA has its ritualistic religion based flaws, Pappu seems to be a proxy for inimical foreign forces. Hope therefore that the NDA makes it...

Satyaki

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

This is excellent news indeed:

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/ailing-up-tanneries-shut-for-kumbh-start-shifting-to-bengal-5575913/

I had been waiting for this to happen since the latter half of 2014, ever since nitwits intoxicated with ritualistic religiosity wanted these tanneries as well as the abattoirs out of UP. The more the flight from UP of these industries & their re-location to WB, the better it is. Now let that Bisht fella as CM of UP tackle rising unemployment-levels in his state, while tens of thousands of jobs in the manufacturing & service sectors get created in WB, with the industrial spinoffs also extending all the way to Bangladesh. My only humble request to 'Didi' & the WB state govt is that the Bisht fella should be allowed to set foot in WB ONLY AFTER each & every existing tannery & abattoir in UP has relocated to WB. Jai Bhaarat! Joy Bangla!

To ADITYA KAMBLE: So far, only baby-steps have been taken. PGMs using SFDRs can be developed not only for BVRAAMs & LRAAMs, but also for air-to-surface PGMs & anti-ship cruise missiles that can be both warship-launched as well as air-launched by MRCAs & shipborne naval multi-role helicopters. I hope such applications are also being considered.

To SATYAKI: 1) When the Supreme Court has via its verdict already given the Rafale procurement a clean chit, who else in their right mind will contest this verdict, except of course the brain-dead 'Pappu'? Also to be noted is that so far, none of the 'desi patrakaars' have reported that the €7.878 billion (about Rs.59,000 crore) inter-governmental procurement contract was inked on September 23, 2016 by the then RM Manohar Parrikar and his French counterpart Jean Yves Le Drian for 28 single-seat Rafales and eight tandem-seaters ONLY AFTER India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the French Defence Ministry’s Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA) had inked a preliminary agreement in lieu of the contract. Most of the 'desi patrakaars' on various TV channels last night were still claiming that the contract was inked between the GoI/MoD & Dassault Aviation, which is 100% UNTRUE. 2) For the Indian voters, their topmost priorities are NOT about 'corruption', but instead are all about job creation, i.e. the very same & age-old 'Roti, Kapada aur Makaan'.

Aditya Kamble said...

http://idrw.org/malaysian-air-force-chief-confirms-indias-tejas-fighter-jet-considered-along-with-fa-50-and-jf-17

1. Do you think tejas has any realistic chance to win this order against fa50.
2. Since tejas comes with Israeli avionics, will those be changed that for European Or american avionics and weapons.
3. HAL still cannot meet India's requirement, will it have the capacity to export.
4. Will GOI agressively pursue such order

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
In on your comments on the Tanneries moving to Bengal....

my feelings are that the tannaries that are already operating in West Bengal, mostly in Kolkata are the source of some of the heaviest and scariest gound-water polution with cancer causing lead-based colours and acids and various heady metal checmicals used in leather treatment and tanning.

The ground water contamination has increased cancer patients in Chittaranjan Cancer hospital to record highs and privately the doctors will tell you that the numbers from Tangra area (the center of leather tannaries) to be abnormally high. More tanneries relocating to West Bengal that you are cheering for will be catastrophic for the ehalth of the people living there.

I understand your comment to be mostly in jest and also in your absolute revulsion of the CM of UP, Mr. Yogi. But still, if anything, we know Kolkata needs a lot of industries desüarately and employment opportunities desparately but the last thing it needs is tannaries relocating from UP to WB.

You could not wish anything worst on the people of West Bengal. Then again, yes you could.... wish another term of Mamata Bannerjee in government. She has made Bengal into a mafia state, in all aspects that a mafia state could be defined.

Kane

Ray said...

That's a good news.
It will be future bvraam.
Astra mk2 is different missile or SFDR is the same??
Is drdo still working on Nirbhay cruise missile??

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ADITYA KAMBLE: 1) That country is now broke & the RFP issuance won’t happen for another 4 years. 2) They can be changed/substituted, but that will involve HAL undertaking such work at its own cost, meaning HAL does not have such finances available nor will the MoD make such funding available. And the flight-tests with new avionics will consume at least 4 years of time. 3) That’s right & therefore all this is propaganda emanating from Malaysia just for the sake of fooling the DRDO into sending a single-seater LCA Mk.1 & a tandem-seater LCA Mk.2 to entertain the crowds at the LIMA 2019 air show in Langkawi next month, i.e. Malaysian audiences deriving pleasure by milking India & at India’s expense without any guarantee of any payback. 4) LoLz! Let the GoI first get its act together by fixing the delivery schedules for the IAF!

To KANE: Tanneries have existed in Bengal since colonial times. Ground-water pollution can easily be prevented through the setting up of water/effluent treatment plants. Nor was my comment in zest, kindly rest assured. Instead, it was a cold-hearted, calculated & objective assessment based on the proviso that someone’s loss can easily be transformed into someone else’s gain. As for mafia states, with the exception of perhaps Puducherry, all other states are functioning & are being governed along similar lines, so to just single out WB would be a fallacy. Just witness the reprehensible buyouts/horse=trading of MLAs in Karnataka over the past 2 decades, or sample this:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/mayawati-defends-building-memorials-after-supreme-court-tells-her-to-reimburse-public-money/story-mdeq9h1YM82FLLnA0nEXWJ.html

Subject to a comprehensive industrial roadmap being drawn up, a full-scale SEZ can be created in WB that caters to just the leather-related & cattle meat-related industries at both the upstream & downstream levels & Bangladesh too can join in it by exporting its raw materials to WB for final processing. And since WB, unlike UP, isn’t land-locked, such end-products can be exported in bulk with ease & at sharply reduced costs. In the end, it all boils down to the application of common-sense for exploiting the latent economic potential.

Meanwhile, SADMON Jacob has begun milking the cross-LoC firefights:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dy3SZ5UUUAA0iob.jpg

https://www.amazon.in/Line-Fire-Violations-India-Pakistan-International/dp/0199489890/ref=pd_sim_14_1/261-6426969-1610834?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=0199489890&pd_rd_r=8aba1f2b-2c75-11e9-873e-89a095b53bef&pd_rd_w=550tw&pd_rd_wg=0sU5C&pf_rd_p=3ba80840-2950-4d64-ba61-c68a14bd0939&pf_rd_r=RGVAW45SSMR1X2JAATP5&psc=1&refRID=RGVAW45SSMR1X2JAATP5

AMIT BISWAS said...

Sirji say something about the syndicate raaj of bengal too sir...narada, sharda....why only tanneries

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAY: It is still very very far away from becoming a future BVRAAM or Astra Mk.2. Only baby-steps have been taken so far by the DRDO & several more avionics for such a BVRAAM need to be developed & tested, which will take about a decade to fructify, by which time cheaper imported solutions will become available. Nirbhay LACM is still under development in air-launched & submarine-launched versions. The TEL for the ground-launch is meant only for trials-n-testing by the DRDO & there will be no operational ground-launched version of Nirbhay. But it looks like Iran is ahead of India in this arena, with the Hoveizeh LACM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2cnsTUvuQg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJIXPdi-ZLQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0QZl7UlMfQ

To AMIT BISWAS: LoLz! While everything about Saradha, Narada etc etc is readily available in the public domain & does not need any additional inputs from me, let me then draw your attention to far larger-scale ‘syndicates’ against whom matters are progressing at a glacial pace:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Gujarat-tops-among-tax-defaulters-in-the-country/articleshow/46957018.cms

https://www.sebi.gov.in/PACL.html

If a crusade is to be carried out against such ‘syndficates’, then it must be carried out without fear or favour, i.e. no pick-n-choose approach. Let a crusade be carried out on a level playing field.

Varun said...

"We decided to go for 148 aircrafts though the initial deal was for 36 aircraft in fly-away status"

www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2019/feb/09/no-scam-in-rafale-deal-former-defence-secretary-mohan-kumar-1936512.html

Going for a different aircraft after signing for 36 Rafales doesn't make any sense. This makes it clear that we have already decided to acquire 110 additional Rafales and rightly so. Then why are we inviting bids from 5-6 different OEMS for MMRCA-2?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VARUN: Yes, that was always the case although it has now come out in the public domain, because the Rafales will be the primary deep-penetration strike aircraft to replace the 160+ Jaguar IS, since the Jaguar IS fleet has taken over the tactical interdiction roles from the decommissioned MiG-23BNs & MiG-27Ms. So, if 148 Rafales & 350 Su-30MKIs are acquired to add to the 40-odd upgraded Mirage 2000s & 60+ upgraded MiG-29UPGs, that still leaves a shortfall of 200 MRCAs, for which the LCA-AF Mk.2 is on offer (but available only in the latter half of the next decade) along with the option of going for 114 imported MRCAs that will be available from 2021 onwards if contract award takes place. The 200 MRCAs are reqd not only for replacing the MiG-21 Bisons, but also the 40 older Jaguar IS that are due for decommissioning early in the following decade.

Meanwhile, more confusion created by the 'desi bandalbaaz' as well as by the Mohanty fella yesterday on TV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-N725JyU1E

Such nitwits simply don't want to accept/admit that Bank Guarantees/Sovereign Guarantees/Letters of Comfort can always be overruled/superceded by sanctions/embargoes imposed by the UN Security Council. But it seems no one wants to highlight this point for mysterious reasons. Also, a bank guarantee is only meant as an insurance in case the OEM fails to enforce the performance guarantee or product warranties. On the other hand, a sovereign guarantee only means that in the event of the OEM going financially bankrupt & is for sale, then whosoever buys over the insolvent OEM will be reqd to assume all the liabilities & contract implementation obligations that were contractually agreed upon by the OEM's previous owners. None of the 'desi patrakaars' & 'desi bandalbaazes' seem to be aware of such finer details/distinctions & yet they seem to be deriving great pleasure in engaging in nonsensical hair-splitting exercises, while the political & ideological spokespersons are equally ignorant of such finer details & are therefore not only themselves confused, but are also confusing the audience through displays of their ignorance & utter lack of domain expertise.

I hope you are also aware that the SOP for broadcast media dictates that whenever anyone goes to any TV studio for taking part in panel discussions, then each of the attending panelist receives a cheque payment whose figure varies from Rs.10,000 to Rs.30,000 after the programme has been recorded. But such payments are not made when the panelist participates in a discussion from his/her residence

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VARUN: It must also be noted that there have been several instances in the past of the PMO getting directly involved in negotiations on the procurement of military hardware. And such data is now available in the public domain too, especially during the early 1980s when Smt.Indira Gandhi had conducted such discussions & negotiations with the then Russian President Leonid Brezhnev during state banquets hosted in the Kremlin. And these have since been highlighted in the memoirs written by former Foreign Secretary M K Rasgotra & the late fromer Principal secretary to former PMs Indira & Rajiv Gandhi, Mr. P C Alexander. So I am really at a loss to fathom exactly why are folks like N Ram & the INC's 'Pappu' now taking exception to the PMO getting involved in parleys & deliberations (and not negotiations) WRT the Rafale's contract negotiations between April 2015 & mid-2016.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Zalmay Khalilzaad's presentation on the on-going US-Afghan Taliban negotiations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe58avAWtKM

Seminar on China's BRI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgB-Ee3xJoc

Manish said...

Prasun sir,
1) Why is it that US sanctions against Cuba, Iran and North Korea have had entirely different effects on their economies?
Despite Cuba being closest to USA and having defied the US many times, its economy seems to be the best among the 3, atleast hdi wise whereas NK, farthest away from US has it the worst off.

2) Have you been to China personally lately after Xi xingping came to power or spoken to Chinese people from. The mainland?
What do they say of the level of democratic freedom in China compared to other countries?

3) If the Chinese are not allowed any freedom, how come they don't protest?
Are they that scared?

4) How many TEL for df 21 and df 26 does China have?

5) Correct me if I am wrong, we have ordered 5 squadrons of S400, each squadron having 3 flights, each flight having 4 TELs.
So that's a total of 12 TELs per squadron, for total of 60 TELs?

6) How many akash squadrons/regiments have been delivered to IA and IAF?

7) How many Spyder sam squadrons have been delivered to IAF?

8) Can the akash and Spyder shoot down Chinese CJ 10 cruise missiles?

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Saw a tweet from India defence basically saying that namo decided for 148 Rafales and initial 36 were in fly away. Rate went up due to 13 ISEs requested.

So then we will get additional sukhois and Rafales. There seems still hope for this common sensual approach followed by f16s.

But don't get why we need Tejas mk2 then? Why can't Dassault and HAL/nal tag along for AMCA directly. Because I don't see any forward movement in either AMCA or Tejas mk2 anyways.

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Himanshu said...

Prasun Sir, you have been proved correct again...

http://idrw.org/modi-government-had-planned-for-148-dassault-rafale/#more-192988

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

Thanks for sharing the news about the tanneries shifting to Kolkata. It is true just like you said that not all tanneries pollute, for example Jagmohan Dalmia had set up tanneries with proper water treatment facilities.

That being said, doing business in Bengal compared to South India is still difficult. For instance PrasunDa, if you need a Drug Licence to set up a pharma shp/distribution in rural Bengal, first you need to get written permission from the local MLA or MP. A neighbor of mine in Kolkata just narrated this harrowing tale to me - simply because he went to Santiniketan to set up a allopathy medicine shop.

Just sharing an incodent - obviously you will know better.

Happy Saraswati Puja to you & all your loved ones.

Best Regards,
VIKRAM

Rajesh Mishra said...

As much I remember, you were in favor of 184 Rafale and Modiji was in favor of at least 126. Modiji took the initial logical urgent steps for 36 Rafale only. Now what if Modiji is defeated? Will we get the the remnants in the shape of Eurofighter Typhoons?

DAshu said...

what are India's response/plan to this GB plan - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tW7ARRecSeQ

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1EPkc2kryGU
Husain Haqqani Says, Pakistan Was Never Meant To Be An Islamic State | Virtuosity

Ashish Gautam said...

Jai Hind sir.
How r u these days??
From this thread it's clear that this SFDR is a good technology but hasn't been mass produced to the reasons best known to respective owners.
1) since now electronic work is left especially development of avionics, my question is that what is d range of the active radar seeker mounted on such missile??
2) is it possible to induct tvc on its nozzles to Remove fins etc thereby keeping weight within limits??
3) what type of computer processors do they use to process data from input systems like seekers especially in case of dual seekers?? Where do we lag in such critical technologies??
4) why systems like IRST are not made in india? I mean if incompetent organisation like DRDO can't make it, why govt don't sllow Pvt companies to do it??

Kapil said...

Prasun da, after taking billions from KSA, UAE and China, Taliban Khan has now met the IMF chief for bailout talks and IMF has agreed on that. Its now crystal clear that all the warnings and hostility from Trump and his administration were mere pressure tactics to force a bankrupt Pakistan to bring Taliban on negotiating table in return for a bailout. Once these beggers get the money they will be back to playing their dirty jihadi games again. You were expecting a Trump tweet on why Pakistan should not get a bailout but its now clear that it was just a US plan to get Pakistan's help for a face saving exit from Afghanistan and get the bailout as a return gift.

Buddha said...

http://forceindia.net/cover-story/staring-at-an-abyss/
Read your article..as usual excellent .
Is it possible for next govt in 5 yrs to go for 70 super sukhoi30mki 44 Rafale and 114 f60s ...
With socialist facade budget and having not high market growth ...And Navy and army big ticket requirements...And Indian jumla politics of all party ..It seems hardly they care for potent air power
Political class of today's India lack vision for future war engagement .
They are not going for extra scorpion as you suggested and rather chose lollypop 6 technology transfer formula ..For conventional submarine..

AniOne said...

Dear Prasun Sir,

I am very thankful to you for putting everything in perspective and helping us understand this world better.

Never thought I would write this here but what future does India as a country holds for her citizens. Going through the media reports in India corrupt the mind like anything but at the same time going through your blog only reinforces the belief set up by media since common sense is tossed out like anything else when it comes to decision making. I am not saying that I am comparing you to Indian media but I am trying to understand the perspective as a whole.

When you make certain predictions in regards to geopolitical situation in India and Pakistan and break up of Pakistan as an entity and as a country, do we also realize that we are on same path since one of reason India stays united since we see Pakistan as a religious threat but once that threat is done away with can we survive as a respectable nation in the world since at state and ground level we carry so much venom and hate against each other.

When I see temple-mosque issue still going on in this country, I am lost completely and don't know what to say? Instead of job generation, we still are embroiled in this age old issue. This at a time, when job generation is at its lowest and AI and automation is replacing the human labor.

Do we really see India and her political leaders putting administrative reforms in place like police reforms, agriculture reforms, making CBI a federal agency like FBI, education reforms to empower primary education and universities at grass root level so that state of the affairs can be improved and a society which fosters innovation and entrepreneurs at every level can be encouraged

What I request you to share some predictions may be for next decade and for 2030s also and where do you see India as a geopolitical entity and what can her citizens do to achieve the role of India as a welfare state and as a society based on just and fair cause or will the nation of India will remain weak and corrupt and we should give up any hope for the future.

While you understand the predicament which I am facing, I request other to take the post in its spirit. I am not trying to belittle my great nation of India which only God knows how much I love. I am just trying to make sense of the prevailing situation and what does future holds for me.

Full Disclosure: I am currently enrolled in a postgraduate degree in US and still in awe of the system which US has put in place for her Universities and for general public and how this country fosters innovation and entrepreneurs at grass root level

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MANISH: 1) LoLz! If you would have known exactly how many Cubans have emigrated to the US & elsewhere & how much they have been sending by way of remittances to their relatives back in Cuba, then you would have had the answer you seek by now. 2) How can there be any democrative freedom in China when that country itself has officially declared innumerable times that democracy is not meant for China & only one-party rule is permissible? Are you then still ASSUMING that democracy in any form exists in China? 3) Of course they are scared & those who are not, choose to flee that country & seek political asylum. No Chinese citizen is ever allowed to leave the country along with his/her entire family, as per the laws of the land. 4) No one knows for sure. 5) I had already given this data in the previous thread in an answer to SBM. 6 & 7) That too was stated in a previous thread. 8) Only IIR-guided SAMs can have a high probability of shooting down LACMs.

To SRINIVASA NANDURI & HIMANSHU GHURAIYA: The IAF requires 148 MMRCAs to act as deep-penetration strike aircraft/air superiority aircraft and up to 324 MRCAs to act as tactical interdictors/interceptors. Hence, these are 2 separate reqmts for 2 entirely different missions. If the IAF is not happy with the LCA Mk.1 & LCA Mk.1A, then there is NO reason to ASSUME that the LCA-AF Mk.2 will be acceptable to the IAF & that’s because the very same imbeciles who had tried to develop the LCA Mk.1 & Mk.1A are also designated as developer of the LCA-AF Mk.2. Hence, failure is assured & therefore the 324 MRCAs to be used as tactical interdictors/interceptors will also have to be imported. AMCA is a pipe-dream that will remain a dream until eternity, kindly rest assured.

To VIKRAM GUHA: It is the same in every other state, rest assured, since this involves the sale/distribution of controlled items. WB is therefore not the exception in this case.

To RAJESH MISHRA: The BJP won’t be defeated, rest assured & it will manage to win enough seats reqd for forming a coalition govt just as was the case back in 2014.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: VMT fo sharing that hilarious programme. The interviewer through every question & sarcastic remarks fully succeeded in exposing the doublespeak of the present-day Govt of Pakistan. The only fact that was not talked about in that programme was that all those parliamentarians/senators who had gone abroad on February 4/5 were told by the countries that they visited to first get their own houses in order before throwing stones at others’ houses. This will be revealed in the coming weeks.

To BUDDHA: VMT. As per the universal teachings of Islam, after the demise of the Holy Prophet, no other piece of real-estate can ever can ever claim to be Islamic in nature. And those countries that have chosen to label themselves as ‘Islamic Republic’ have only suffered & continue to do so, like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran & Iraq. As fir future MRCA reqmts of the IAF, it requires 148 MMRCAs to act as deep-penetration strike aircraft/air superiority aircraft and up to 324 MRCAs to act as tactical interdictors/interceptors. But one procurement is for certain: enough additional Su-30MKIs to take the total fleet strength to 350 (including those to make up for attrition losses suffered so far).

And here’s the seminar in which the US offered to share missile defence technologies & supply related hardware to India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO41DboRFc4

And later this week, NaMo will lay the foundation for a new OFB factpry in Amethi for licence-building the AK-103s meant for the CAPFs & Assam Rifles & RR Battalions.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: SFDR’s engineering/industrial patents have been available since 1959, meaning India took 60 years to master it! 1) It will be the same as that of any other BVRAAM, i.e. not more than 20km. 2) Has any other country that has already developed SFDR succeeded in developing TVC for SFDRs? 3) Commercially available microprocessors. India lags far behind in terms of miniaturisation of components & sub-systems. 4) Because the production know-how fvor all the reqd components & sub-systems has not yet been mastered by an industrial entity. DRDO cannot make anything nor is it reqd to do so. DRDO can only design a solution. R & D effort is NOT the same as military-industrial proficiency.

And BTW, the Pakistani journalist who last month had laughed in a TV programme (which I had weblinked for you) after hearing that Pakistan would soon become a superpower, was arrested 48 hours ago for his laughing! Here he is after his arrest:

Rizwan Raazi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqiTuRcezDk

To KAPIL: Just go through the interview of Zalmay Khalilzaad that I had weblinked yesterday to find out exactly what kind of pre-conditions the US has imposed on Pakistan. It is not just about the Afghan Taliban, but several other pre-conditions that have been laid down by the US.

just_curious said...

Prasun,

what do you make about the blatant threats made by kapil sibal .. http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2019/02/kapil-sibal-warns-officials-trying-to.html
last time around he threatened no less than the CJI.. why should'nt he be behind bars??


Anonymous said...

Prasunda
300 km sounds like an absurd kind of distance from which to hit a fast moving manuevering target like an fighter aircraft. Would the BVRAAM be really that effective or are they just technical features on paper.

When you do a arc with 300 km as-the-crow-flies from Pathankot, almost all major cities and power centers of Pakistan will fall under that curve; Gujranwala, Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and even Faisalabad. From the airfliends of Punjab definitely all of Pak Punjab falls under that 300 km arc.

Will that mean that the skies of Pakistan will be unsafe to fly any aircerft if India has sufficient AWACS support in the case of breakout of war?

Kane

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANYONE: I am perfectly aware of/conversant with the feelings of someone who sooner than later begins to make objective assessments when he/she evaluates & assesses his/her country of origin from abroad. And that’s because when one in inside his/her country of origin, then a lot of going-ons inevitably get taken for granted. And its is the detachment for an appreciable period that brings about objective, competitive benchmarking. But one cannot obviously compare the developed nations with India, since the former had a headstart & hence India has the more arduous task of climbing the ladder even faster. This process is well underway, but will not happen faster than what the laws of nature mandate. And this is all the more reason why clarity of thought is the need of the hour. And this can become widespread only through greater dissemination of objective opinions, views & thoughts. And it is only this that will ensure one day that from the existing dictum of INDIA FUNCTIONS DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF GOVTS IN POWER, the future dictum of INDIA THRIVES DUE TO THE EXISTENCE OF GOVTS IN POWER will emerge. The transformation will eventually take place, but not on a fast-track.

To JUST_CURIOUS: These are all illustrative of the final desperate & dying gasps of breath when one’s back is to the wall, rest assured. The citizens of India from all walks of life are far more mature to see through all such desperate cries. And the same applies to all the trash emanating from THE HINDU, like this latest installment:

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/government-waived-anti-corruption-clauses-in-rafale-deal/article26231793.ece?homepage=true

From this, we can safeky infer that those senile imbeciles masquerading as journalists/patrakaars are too lazy to do their homework. For, had they done some research, they would have discovered that France as a country is now subject to & is compulsorily reqd to adhere to & enforce far far more stringent & binding anti-corruption laws & conventions than any Integrity Pact that any Indian Govt can ever come up with. And here they are:

https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/france_implements_historic_anti_corruption_agreement

http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/statement-of-the-oecd-working-group-on-bribery-on-france-s-implementation-of-the-anti-bribery-convention.htm

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://theprint.in/opinion/year-after-pashtun-protests-pakistan-military-is-on-arrest-spree-as-civilians-fight-back/190523/

https://theprint.in/opinion/why-pakistan-army-cannot-crush-pashtun-uprising-as-brutally-as-the-baloch-separatists/75050/

https://theprint.in/opinion/the-pashtun-movement-is-seeking-separation-it-is-a-fight-for-dignity/52086/

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1907030/1-tv-anchor-rizwan-razi-arrested-defaming-state-institutions/

AniOne said...

Thank you Prasun Sir for providing a clear and objective assessment. While I also believe that eventually India will emerge into a just and fair society sometime in future, sometime it's very tough to keep hope in the face of various event which are currently unfolding in our country right now.

Ved said...

Daer Prasun,
1. If OFB TAR and AK103 are of same caliber then why are we licence producing AK103?
2. Assuming NDA comes to power again in May, which major defence acquisitions can we expect in next 5 years?
3. Do you foresee India joining the 6th gen Franco German or the British tempest fighter programme?

VARUN KUMAR said...

Sir just read HAL tender RFI. I suppose it is for Tejas MK2.

https://hal-india.co.in/Common/Uploads/TenderDoc/19865_TenderPDF1_RFI%20FF.pdf

https://hal-india.co.in/Common/Uploads/TenderDoc/19864_TenderPDF1_RFI%20CF.pdf

https://hal-india.co.in/Common/Uploads/TenderDoc/19866_TenderPDF1_RFI%20RF.pdf

I am surprised that front fuselage has canards and stub wing. given on page 2 of RFI for
front fuselage.
Has MK2 design changed that much ? I think at least 15 years for Tejas MK2 Flight testing only.
Where are we going on Tejas Mk2 development.

Ashish Gautam said...

Bechara raazi 😂😂😂
I don't know about TVC tech on SFDR that's y asked u.
Military industrial proficiency to hmari Khair DPSUs k bharose he hai mainly coz of govt policies and also industry don't take much interest in it coz of ultra slow defence ministries Working culture.
ABI Maine twitter pe kuch bandalbaazi hote hue dekhi hai.... By the great bandalbaaz and someone else too who says "Tejas Mk2 gonna have canards" with support of pics of its FD studies which may have been done only for aerodynamic stability test etc on software under various conditions. Though exact answer AAP he de skte hai.
Giving weblinks.
https://twitter.com/nileshjrane/status/1094955272945176576?s=19
https://twitter.com/nileshjrane/status/1094958252436144129?s=19

1) for MFD why don't they use LED, why they still used LCD displays?

Kishore said...

once you provided us links for different avoinic fundamentals and technologies
I searched in all your comments but couldn't find.
can you pls let me know those two links pls.
Thans.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KANE: LRAAMs are never intended for engaging combat aircraft like MRCAs. Instead, they are meant for use against heavy bombers & combat-support platforms that are neither agile nor manoeuvrable—apoint that I had already stated in the narrative above but which you seem to have not taken heed of. So, if the SFDR will power a BVRAAM then such a missile will at best have a range of 120km, which makes more sense & which countries like Japan & China are now developing, while the US, Europe & Russia already possess such BVRAAMs.

To VED: 1) Because TAR was NEVER licence-produced by OFB. It was only licence-assembled from kits supplied by IWI. The AK-103s will be licence-produced from matels s& materials imported from Russia, i.e. the boring & machining & final-assembly will all take place in India. 2) No one can predict that, sinbce the reqmts are far too many & no one in the corridors of power has any clue so far about the type & quantum of military reforms reqd for enhancing joint warfighting capabilities. Consequently, the ‘arming without aiming’ situation will continue. 3) No.

To VARUN KUMAR: LoLz! Stub-wings for MRCA? It really takes a joker to draft such an RFI. The term that should be used is the WING-ROOT ‘s LEADING EDGE SECTION.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Raazi obtained bail yesterday. Here’s the update:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3svTUhyRoT8

AMLED is already in use on panoramic cockpit displays.

Meanwhile it, was hilarious to watch the TV channels last night in which ‘desi patrakaars’ & politicians & clueless ideological spokespersons (why are they being invited to contribute soundbytes on such a specialized subject is anyone’s guess) who have never ever read either an IGA Framework Agreement, or a Sovereign Guarantee document or a Letter of Comnfort making all kinds of nonsensical ASSUMPTIONS on the contents of such documents. The following were the DUMBEST talkshows on the Rafale yesterday:

NDTV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_QuLUjV3NI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFL1c5Hf9Dw

CNBC/TV-18: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVzfxRgvr3M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz3Rz8Gh9g8

HTN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsxajk2vg-A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kq3TF8FpFow

And this IDIOT does not even know the difference between a sovereign guarantee & bank guarantee:

Sovereign Guarantee: https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/1094202970848313344

Guess he also won’t know the difference between an Underwriter & an Untertaker!

But these 2 statrements explain it all:

https://in.ambafrance.org/Statement-by-the-French-Presidency,7643

https://in.ambafrance.org/Acquisition-of-36-Rafale-aircraft-by-India-14115

What they state is that when an inter-governmental agreement is inked bwteeen the DGA & a customer country, the former represents the State of France & it GUARANTEES full contract supervision & implementation on behalf of the State of France. And the contract signing for the 36 Rafales was done by the Defence Ministers of the two countries, & not between the GoI & private-sector French OEMs as has been alleged by some ‘desi patrakaars’ who are misinforming their audiences by claiming that only supply protocols have been inked between the GoI & Dassault Aviation & MBDA.

And it is for this reason that the DGA, through the Ministry of Defence, is reqd to compulsorily present every year to the French Parliament/National Assembly, all financial data related to the sale of military hardware not only to the French armed forces, but also to export customers worldwide. The annual presentations are all available at the DGA’s website as well. At the same time, such documentation is sent to the EU Parliament & to the OECD Secretariat for checking & vetting & public reading as well. This is the European way of ensuring transparency, just like in the US all data on US weapons exports via the FMS channel are submitted to the US Library of Congress for scrutiny by anyone.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Interesting Information Boards:

LCA Mk.1: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzGEZqvWsAALHgS.jpg

MiG-27UPG: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzIGi-gXgAAlP8K.jpg

Jaguar IS: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzCAIOnXQAEe59V.jpg

Mi-17V-5: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dy-AWCdVsAAR4K0.jpg

IL-76MD: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dy7278yWwAAwXd4.jpg

Su-30MKI: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dy4sJ9lWwAAqJxE.jpg

Mi-35P: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyzZtnjU0AAinKr.jpg

To be noted is that the one for Tejas Mk.1 does not mention any cannon as being part of the armaments package carried by this MRCA.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AYUSH: Your fears & assumptions WRT Pakistan's supposed IMF bailout are misplaced, as explained in this talk-show aired yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCxe_P-ZkNA

It also reveals that ret'd Brig Aijaaz Shah has been appointed as NSA to PM Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi.

capricorn said...

1> when can we see an indian ASAT test?? will it be ground launched or air launched??

2> what is status of indian SOSUS underwater network you had written about long ago??

3> what are the developments / projects to track submarines in indian seas by india??

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Interesting reads:

https://theprint.in/defence/missing-integrity-clause-not-unusual-say-defence-ministry-officials-on-rafale-controversy/191100/

https://theprint.in/governance/as-china-steps-up-radio-propaganda-indias-proposal-to-counter-it-is-stuck-in-red-tape/190772/

To VIKRAM GUHA: Ancient Indian Epics Demystified:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqn0CfMXw1U

Manish said...

Prasun sir,

1) Will the MF star radar on the upcoming p17a Frigates be the same as on the Kolkata class or a downscaled version?

2) How will a Indian navy carrier task force defend force defend itself against the agosta 90b considering we are deficient in both ATAS and ASW helicopters and that the agosta have 50km long range torpedoes which can be fired beyond the range of our HMS?

3) In a one on one contest between our SSKs and an agosta, how will our SSKs fare in the absence of long range torpedoes like the ones on the agosta 90b (DM2A4)?
Our current torpedoes have only half the range.

Sujit said...

Prasun sir, it seems you got slightly mistaken when u denied tejas mk2 will not have canards and indeed will have levcons..anw guess canard canfiguration was indeed not a fanboy dream..but why hal is issuing tender?? Isnt the aircraft lifecycle in india is ada will first develop prototypes and then pass on the design to hal?? Does that mean a workable prototype has already been in works in ada hangar??

rad said...

hi prasun
why is the SFDR missile only use full for non maneuvering targets like awacs and re fuellers? is it because they are not agile enough due to the high relative speed or due to air flow problems with the ramjet intakes at high AOA.?
will they miss when fired against a normal fighter like f-16??

MBDA also never claim that meteor is for large targets only??

I dont understand why we are license producing the ak -103 when we get cheap (100$) if i am right bulgarian ak-47 clones ?

There is this talk of making an AESA radar for the astra 2 and the SFDR missile how far is it true? can we do it ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

A MiG-27UPG of the IAF on a training mission crashed on February 12, 2019 evening near Pokhran range, however, the pilot had ejected safely before the aircraft hit the ground. It had taken off from Jaisalmer air base. On January 29, 2019 a Jaguar IS from No.27 Sqn crashed in Uttar Pradesh's Hatempur area between Hata and Kasya towns in Kushinagar district, about 300km from Lucknow. The pilot, Wing Commander Rohit Katoch, managed to eject safely just before the crash. The aircraft was on a routine exercise and developed some technical problems soon after it had taken off from Gorakhpur air base. On September 4, 2018 another MiG-27UPG crashed in the morning during a routine sortie near Jodhpur. The pilot ejected safely. In July 2018, a MiG-21 crashed near village Patta Jatian in Jawali area of Kangra district in Himachal Pradesh, killing the lone pilot. On June 5, 2018, an IAF Jaguar IM crashed at Beraja village near Mundra taluk in Kutch district, killing Air Commodore Sanjay Chauhan. In June, 2018, a MiG-27UPG on a routine mission crashed in a residential area in Jodhpur, even though the pilot ejected safely just minutes before the accident. On June 27, 2018 a Su-30MKI crashed near a farm in Maharashtra’s Nashik district ahead of its service-induction. Both pilots, Wing Commander Prashant Nair & Squadron Leader L. Biswal, ejected safely before the aircraft hit ground during a test flight. In November 2017, the tyre of a MiG-27UPG burst while landing, following which it got stuck in the runaway in Jodhpur. In the last 10 years, over 90 combat aircraft, including 11 MiG-27s, have crashed. Inquiries have revealed that majority of the MiG-27s went down because of “technical defects”. A Jaguar IS on October 3, 2016 crashed in Pokhran area of Rajasthan, but both the pilots ejected safely. The aircraft was on routine training sortie when the incident occurred. On June 13, 2016 a MiG-27UPG crashed in a residential area of Jodhpur, with the pilot ejecting safely. The aircraft crashed adjacent to a house in an open area in Mahaveer Nagar. The pilot was on a routine training mission. He had reported a technical problem and sought priority landing.

VIKRAM GUHA said...

Thank You PrasunDa.
One obvious question that comes to mind is - how and when did the deterioration start in Indian society?

Best Regards,
VIKRAM

asd said...

As far as TEJAS Mk 2 is concerned, as per what you have revealed in your current thread, is plan good? Will it suffer any design stroke like Mk1 in future? Please enlighten. Is Mk1 a sitting duck for JF17 in its current avatar?

just_curious said...

Prasun,

why is the tejas design not stealthier? esp given that the AMCA has a much improved geometric design & internal weapons bay, why is it not applied here? also a few other things which I observed..
- why is the MK2 proposed to have a fixed refueling probe?
- why the same y-duct air intakes?
- why no change to wing design (all new concepts have w- shaped design eg being EU's FCAS. UK's tempest
- how close is the drdo design to your article-- http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2017/08/lca-af-mk2-can-still-become-reality.html
- is DRDO planning to design triple/ quad ejector racks (quad cud be used for carrying SDB
or brimstone type munitions)

My personal take is this what MK1 A ought to be....

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HMZihzLj4IM
Save The IAF: MIG-27 fighter aircraft of the Indian Air Force crashed in Rajasthan
Sit time has come to take some strong step in this field.

just_curious said...

Prasun,

to add, there was an article featuring 3d wire model for tejas mk 2 naval mentioning airbus consultancy support to ADA (probably in 2017) as a part of design finalization of mk 2(I don't seem to find it anywhere. a similar approach is being taken for the AMCA. that model seemed much more geometrically stealthy than the one shown in your article (the same is used on other sights as well). what happened to the airbus consultancy?? (https://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/amca-advanced-medium-combat-aircraft-hal.36/page-149).. whatever happen to it?. Is this the final design?

- why no twin pelikan tail for mk2 like f 35? or the recent US- TX program winner saab-boeing model? especially when it is known that pelikan tail is more stealthy

- I feel it would be prudent to opt for a higher thrust engine given that it is now a medium class fighter as shared in this article (http://idrw.org/should-india-experiment-tejas-mk2-with-al-31f-engines-with-thrust-vectoring-nozzles/)

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MANISH: 1) Yes. 2) The 11 upgraded Ka-28PL ASW helicopters will start arriving soon from Russia & they will have dunking sonars. 3) Of what use is a long-range HWT when the SSK’s sonars themselves don’t have the same target detection range as that of long-range HWTs? So on what basis can such a HWT launched & against what?

To SUJIT: LoLz! In your words, “u denied tejas mk2 will not have canards and indeed will have levcons: also means that “u said Tejas Mk.2 will have canards and indeed will not have levcons”. In factr, the LEVCONs were considered for Tejas Mk.1A, but this option was dropped since ti would not have enhanced either agility or manoeuvrability & would instead only increase airframe weight of an already underpowered aircraft. The fanboy art shows Tejas Mk.1A with LEVCONs, not canards. So, no mistake of any kind on my part. HAL isn’t developing any prototype of LCA-AF Mk.2 t all. HAL’s role is that of principal industrial sub-contractor to ADA & that’s why it is responsible for only the fabrication of any & all airframe structures related to all variants of the LCA. No aircraft designer in the world possesses in-house industrial facilities for airframe fabrication. ADA does not possess any hangar is is located inside a building. Only those manufacturing OEMs that have both in-house design facilities & industrial facilities can do all the work under one roof.

To RAD: Who has ever said that SFDR-equipped missiles will only be used against combat-support platforms? Only LRAAMs with SFDR can be used for such missions. And neither the Meteor nor Astra Mk.2 are LRAAMs. They are BVRAAMs with max range of 120km but then again, 99.99% of BVRAAMs are NEVER launched for max range interceptions. Instead, they will be used for hitting targets at distances of up to only 80km or even lesser so as to reduce the reaction time for the targetted MRCA to take evasive measures. AESA-based seeker can easily be designed in-country, but its industrial fabrication remains a challenge.

To VIKRAM GUHA: The deterioration in any civilization begins with some kind of geological/tectonic cataclysm like a severe earthquake, which disrupts the flow of rivers & creates new obstacles like mountain ranges. Settled populations than get uprooted & they become migrants or internally displaced folks & become refugees.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD: What HAL has released are only designs for the sake of procuring fuselage-section assembly rigs. The final design configuration is therefore still another 5 five years away from emerging. Hence, it will be highly premature to pass judgements on the futuristic LCA-AF Mk.2. The existing Tejas Mk.1 minus its internal cannon, internal ASPJ suite & even a minimal MAWS sensor suite fitment will be a dead duck even when confronted by a 1960s-era MiG-21FL during a dogfight, rest assured.

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) That’s because the AMCA’s so-called scale-model design makes use of the uniform planform concept of airframe design, while that of the LCA-AF Mk.2 does not. 2) As time goes by, it can very well have a rectractable probe. 3) For the same reason as that explained in Pt.1. 4) Because it is LCA-AF Mk.2, & not an all-new LCA airframe design that will require at least 3 additional years of wind-tunnel tests & related refinements. 5) What HAL has released are only designs for the sake of procuring fuselage-section assembly rigs. The final design configuration is therefore still another 5 five years away from emerging. Hence, it will be highly premature to pass judgements on the futuristic LCA-AF Mk.2. And as I had stated several times earlier, the ADA has been misleading everyone by labelling the Tejas Mk.1’s scale-models on display at various expos as the Tejas Mk.2 or LCA-AF Mk.2. Little does ADA realise that such intellectual misrepresentations causes it much more harm than good. I hope from now on it begins to learn such lessons. And the same also goes for all those indulging in fanciful & highly misleading fanboy artwork creations. Dual & triple ejector racks can be designed & developed by the likes of TATA, KALYANI & MAHINDRA DEFENCE within a span of just 6 months. All the designs & patents of such racks are already available online & can easily be replicated.

Pratap said...

@AYUSH and @KAPIL I too believe that it depends on how much Pakistan can deliver in Afghanistan. Even if these beggers get a bailout where do you think they are heading? A bailout mean end of subsidies and rise in inflation which is already quite high. Growth rate is certain to go down. IMF might also demand a cut in defence budget, details about CPEC financing and so on. If that happens then many CPEC projects will get shelved in coming months and others will slow down which will definately frustate the Chinese. So dont be so pessimistic just yet. Meanwhile this is Taliban Khan's new education policy https://twitter.com/pid_gov/status/1093910488910565376 I was delighted when he became PM because in him Pakis were looking for their saviour lol. So just sit back and enjoy as he takes Pakistan to the dustbin of history.

just_curious said...


Thanks Prasun...
finally got the links for the mk 2 design I was mentioning in my queries.. https://www.ada.gov.in/images/Annual%20Report%202015-16.pdf .. (strange ada never came out with newer annual reports post this, page 22-23)...
also another link where the then ADA chief Commodore C.D. Balaji mentions areas of improvements/change in design ...https://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/02/revealed-the-indian-lca-navys-big-fight-back.html... "the team plans to move the wings outboard by about 350mm, increasing the space significantly between the fuselage and the wings. This would immediately optimise load transfer (the ADA has had weight issues with the landing gear) and free up the central fuselage for fuel. ‘We believe the change will free up space for up to 700 kg additional fuel, providing about 22 minutes of additional time on task"

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRATAP: In fact, in lieu of Prince MBS’ vsit to Pakistan, Ret’d Gen raheel Sharif arrived in Islamabad to ‘brief’ the Pakistani Foreign Ministry & the PMO about the quid pro quo. Details are available here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rm5xULUxC0

To JUST_CURIOUS: In addition, the ADA annual report makes no mention at all about the 23mm GSH-23 cannon as being part of the Tejas Mk.1’s armament package! I guess that makes it the world’s first 4tg-gen MRCA without cannons—yet another addition to India’s Book of Records!

What Ret’d Cmdre Balaji had stated in february 2017 was that the fuselage length would be increased by 1 metre & correspondingly this would dictatre that the wing area be increased by moving the wing-root sections outboard by about 350mm, thereby increasing the space between the fuselage and the wings. This would immediately optimise load transfer and free up the central fuselage for fuel. ‘We believe the change will free up space for up to 700kg additional fuel, providing about 22 minutes of additional time on task.”

However, matters are not that simple. And that’s because the increased MTOW of the LCA-AF Mk.2 due to the 1-metre centre fuselage stretch & a heavier turbofan will all result in the need for a stronger & heavier main landing gear, i.e. the same main landing gear already developed for the NLCA Mk.1. In addition, the 1-metre centre fuselage stretch will have to accommodate LRUs for the integrated EW suite & other mission-avionics like an IRST sensor. So, due to all this, any appreciable increase in internal fuel capacity is ruled out for sure. Nor will above-wing twin conformal fuel tanks be possible due to the cannon being moved from the belly to the starboard-side above-wing area. Consequently, the only option is to carry supersonic underwing fuel tanks of the type carried by the MiG-21 variants.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Here’s another faux pas of the ‘desi bandalbaaz’ last night, when he claimed that there had been a contract yesterday:

Actually, there was no contract inked yesterday by the MoD & instead it was just an EoI issued by the IN for 111 LUHs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uk61UvSHFeQ&t=1s

https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/sites/default/files/tender_document/EoI%20for%20selection%20of%20Strategic%20Partner%20for%20NUH.pdf?download=1

Also, the time has come to give two tight slaps on the faces of all those who keep on claiming to no end that licenced-production of imported combat aircraft will promote self-reliance. One just has to look at the following 2 PDF files issued by HAL to find out that for the past 49 years, no industrial self-reliance has been achieved through the licenced-production of any type of aircraft of importred origin:

https://hal-india.co.in/Common/Uploads/DMS/2-Items%20intended%20to%20be%20Outsourced.pdf

https://hal-india.co.in/Common/Uploads/PDFS/Airborne%20Items2018.pdf

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST-CURIOUS: And here's another record-setting precedent from ADA that tantamounts to the cart being placed before the horse:

The Government sanction for feasibility studies of design and development of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) was th accorded on 5 Oct 2010, at a cost of Rs.90.5 Crores, for a duration of 1 ½ years initially and st subsequently PDC was extended upto 31 March 2017, in order to facilitate the continuation of next generation advanced technology development projects. Feasibility studies have been carried out based on IAF's Top Level Operational Requirements and completed the scope of the project. Feasibility Report was compiled and Review held in November 2013. Feasibility Report was updated in October 2015 with various activities carried out post the reviews and submitted to Air HQ and Hon'ble Raksha Mantri.

ADA received Draft Preliminary Services Qualitative Requirements (PSQRs) for AMCA in September 2014 from Air HQ for study and feedback. Appreciation of requirements document was forwarded to Air HQ for finalizing PSQRs. Reviews have been held by VCAS, DCAS and ACAS (Plans). AMCA latest Configuration and development approach are accepted by IAF. First two/three prototypes will fly with proven 90kN class engine and 110kN class engine will be installed in a phased manner from 4th prototype onwards. PSQR is being amended by IAF towards finalization. It has been communicated by Air HQ that the AMCA should be powered by 110kN class engine. GE, Eurojet and Rolls Royce have been proposed through G-G procurement route for AMCA powerplant. A final decision is awaited.

Everywhere else, it is mandatory that the end-user first issues a PSQR, following which industry-level feasibility studies commence. And only after the definitive ASQR is released is that project definition & detailed design works commence. And if the intention is to develop carrier-based & shore-based variants of the same aircraft, then it is the design of the carrier-based variant becomes the baseline design & the design for the shore-based variant flows out of the baseline design.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Pakistan Navy's Multinational Ex AMAN-2019 Ends:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKHCBRAHd-U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51PHcPLYzPQ

Pakistan Facing Countrywide Fuel Shortages:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opa-F4HYJsI

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Following an unsolicited offer by Russia last October, a high-level IAF technical team was in Russia last month to inspect the 34 MiG-29SMT/UBTs that Algeria had ordered back in 2006 for US$1.3 billion, but which Algeria refused to take delivery of in 2008. Following the inspections of these mothballed aircraft, the IAF has now decided to procure 21 of them for US$30 million (Rs.200 crore) each, which is inclusive of their upgradation to the UPG standard by installing IAF-specified avionics and Klimov RD-33-3 turbofans (my recommendation, however, is to procure all 34 of them). The MiG-29UPG is structurally the same as the MiG-29SMT, but with IAF-specific avionics. These acquisitions will be IN ADDITION to the 18 licence-built Su-30MKIs that the IAF wants to acquire from HAL. The IAF presently operates three squadrons of MiG-29s—two from Adampur and one from Jamnagar.

just_curious said...

Prasun,

Sincerely appreciate the time you have taken out to reply to my queries, a few more (I know I'm being greedy :) )

- what chance does the ka226T naval version stand in the NUH race? which according to you is most suited
- will the mig 29's being discussed come with the fadec system & thrust vectoring nozzles? which radar? what about the news https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/gtre-and-klimov-agree-to-develop-multi-axis-thrust-vectoring-nozzle.368262/page-2
- Since mothballed airframes are being refurbished any chance of reducing the RCS similar to mig 35? or a better question would be what all can be borrowed from the improvements made on mig 35 into these
- Any announcements, products to be expected in the aero india 2019?

Newcomer said...

Sir haven't heard about Ghatak assault rifle for long.. is she still alive..?
if she is then at what stage..? when will she be inducted to Army..?

rad said...

hi prasun
i dont understand you calling the astra 2 and the meteor a BVRAAM. That is unless the astra 2 is going to be the SFDR equipped . The astra 2 as far as i know is an improved version of the astra with the same air frame with a 100 km head on range , may be equal to the AIM 120 A. I believe the present astra has a range equal to a MBDA MICA missile given the baby steps we have taken for a first time missile producer.

MBDA claims that the meteor has 3 times the no escape zone of the AMRAAM and hence it is called a long range AAM.
Then by your inference the only LRAAM is the ks-172. What ever happened to it as there are sneak reports on the net that India has funded it ??Do you think it wold be worth the investment as it can be carries by the su-30 only ?

when you mean the industrial fabrication , is it the FAB factory or putting together TRX modules and integrating the whole system.? where are the TRX modules of the UTTAM radar and the netra awacs fabricated?? made ?. Can i assume that given the research that we have put into netra awacs, we have a semblance of software algorithms for the larger A330 awacs and the uttam radar and may be the AESA seeker of the future AAM?

should we go in for the L3 Helras DUNKING SONAR that Israel seems to have mounted on a RHIB?> seems to be a very cost effective solution as they can be data linked to patrolling p-8 above . I believe they can come at a very cost effective price , we can take 10 of them and position the thru the choke point and track the chinks. I believe they have MINE detecting abilities as well. Now who takes such urgent decisions when the national security is zero when it comes to MINE detection etc.I am sure Uncle sam would be delighted to sell to us.
you also mentioned thatthe SSK sonars have a limited range in that case why does germanay make the seahake 100km capable torpedoes?

why did algeria not take delivery of the MIG-29smt ? because of the reliability issues that Malaysia is facing ? Do you think it is a good deal for us ? will not Russia be pissed of for algeria not taking delivery and not return money given??

rad said...


Hi prasun

Do you think the latest Supersonic ASM going to be delivered to pak has its roots to the russian kh-31 ?? can russia object to the transfer of the missiles.?Though the prospect of facing them is scary, they have to come within 300km of our ship s to fire?

chinese awacs will deff give them target data for firing solution. Can we take out the ASM carrying ships with our long range su-30 with bramos?? in that case? what is your solution??

Pinkal Shah said...

Hello Prasun,

Greetings of the day!!

As per your reply that IAF definelty want to re-engine Jaguar IS Darin-3 aircraft however in your early reply you said that under performance of Jaguar current engine affects from where is is operated, i.e if take off from rajasthan hot atmosphere than it is underpowered but not id take off from forward airbases such as ambala, jamnagar than exactly where is the program stuck?

Thanks & regards,

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
Do you think that the IAF intending to procure 21 MIg-29 to convert to UPG standard is one of those kind of stories that are floated by some to see what effect it may have? Or could this be an offer under serious considerartions by IAF.

Kane

joydeep ghosh said...

hallo Prasun da

why doesnt IAF go for all 34, also there is 18 Mig29 in malaysia which it is finding difficult to operate and maintain, IAF can buy these too.

Another fact there are too many Mig29s around the world that remain unused or under utilized IAF can grab them, just like 12 Mirage 2000-S in Qatar that have become excess after Qatar bought F15SE, Typhoons and Rafales

any comment or thread on Bruce Riedels book, it is a bombshell it seems

expect answers

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS, KANE & JOYDEEP GHOSH: Here are the clarifications:

1) The news about the IAF procuring additional MiG-29s came yesterday directly from Air Marshal Anil Khosla Vice Chief of the Air Staff (VCAS) during a press-briefing he was giving on the forthcoming Vayu Shakti firepower demo at Pokhran. Hence, this is not a bubble or trial balloon being floated by any incompetent person.

2) As I have explained above, what is on offer are ex-Algerian MiG-29SMTs, which externally are identical to the IAF’s MiG-29UPGs. Here’s an illustration of the MiG-29SMT:

https://imgproc.airliners.net/photos/airliners/5/2/9/2465925.jpg?v=v40

Hence, such aircraft come with the same Phazotron JSC-built Zhuk-M2E MMRs & Klimov RD-33-3 turbofans as those on the MiG-29UPGs. All that is now reqd to be done is to install IAF-specific avionics like the Elettronica-supplied ELT-568 AESA-based jammers & the R-118 RWRs. Such fitments will be done in Russia & within less than a year all 21 such aircraft will be delivered. And the MiG-29SMTs from the outset have FBW flight-control systems, just like the MiG-29UPGs.

3) Upgrading older MiG-29B-12s/B-13s to the SMT/UPG strandard will take a far longer time & will also be more expensive since they are powered by older RD-33 turbofans & they don’t have FBW flight-control systems.

Disinformation is now being spread by the usual band of ‘desi patrakaars’ who can’t tell the difference between various MiG-29 variants. Here is 1 such example:

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/-russia-proposes-to-sell-21-used-cheap-mig-29s-india-wary-of-hidden-costs-1207247-2018-04-08

To PINKAL SHAH: The project is stuck due to unavailability of funding sources.

To RAD: The Astra Mk.2 had by 2015 itself had morphed into a BVRAAM powered by ramjet-based SFDR. Algeria at the last moment decided against procuring MiG-29SMTs in favour of Su-30MKAs. The HELRAS had been selected for procurement by the IN in the previous decade itself. It is likely to be used by the IN’s 11 upgraded Ka-28PL helicopters.

Ray said...

Hello sir,
If mk2 is decade away, then what can be the options for IAF meanwhile??
Till what time MoD can issue RFP for mmrca2??
Help in AMCA program is a criteria in mmrca2 selection??

Himanshu said...

Dear Sir,
For all those, who have been doubting Rafale deal, truth directly from Horse's Mouth and once again you have been proved correct sir ...
https://youtu.be/Pi0Kjq_2qmQ

soi said...

Awesome thread Prasun Da,
The rifle saga seems to take confusing turns to me:
1. {https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018/11/mega-made-in-india-kalashnikov-assault-rifle-deal-before-year-end.html} What the army is finally going after 7.62*39 or 7.62*51?
2. If 7.62*51, is the OFB-R2(7.62*51) still in race or is it rejected? If in race how many can be it ordered?
3.Some folks are saying the new OFB factory will not be exactly producing licensed copy of AK-103 but a Russian modified version of Ghatak or TAR, Is this true?
Thanks

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAY: The options are simple enough: increase the Su-30MKI fleet to 350, procure more MiG-29UPGs to build up their numbers to 120, maintain a 130-strong fleet of Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 powered by F-125N turbofans, and procure a total of 148 Rafales in successive tranches till 2035. AMCA will remain a distant pipe-dream, rest assured.

To HIMANSHU GHURAIYA: VMT. And here’s the complete CAG report:

https://www.india.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/CAG-Report-on-Capital-Acquisitions-in-Indian-Airforce.pdf

To SOI: 1) Have already explained it all in detail several times before. AK-103s are for CAPFs, paramilitary forces & the RR Battalions, and not for the IA. 2) Why should it be rejected? What must be understood is that no Army in the world is totally equipped with state-of-the-art weapons. Only those formations likely to engage in combat in the short-term have such advanced weapons. 3) Such ‘folks’ are certifiable IMBECILES, rest assured.

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

HiHPrasun,

Will additional mig29upgs come at cheaper prices like the current 21? And what about the engines. How better are they now?

Also, if we go for 148 Rafales, then will there be any funds or either f16 blk70 or Tejas mk2?

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

dineja said...

http://www.defencenews.in/article/Pakistani-Suicide-bomber-kills-27-Iranian-Border-Guards,-Iran-vows-revenge-583087

This seems to be very exciting time.

Anonymous said...

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/kargil-crisis-deepens-autonomous-council-calls-for-mass-disobedience-1993211?pfrom=home-topstories
1) why people are against government decision?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/suicide-attack-kills-20-members-iran-revolutionary-guard-190213161754559.html

2) do Iran n Pakistan has porous borders like with India to carry out terrorist attacks? what kind of revenge does Iran can extract from this?

Ron

Sidharth said...

Prasun da,

https://zeenews.india.com/india/vk-singh-raises-questions-over-hals-condition-capability-2180126.html

Is it true, then GOVT. OF INDIA let french take pictures of HF-24 Marut and use it as base for their Mirage F2 or F1 aircraft.

And engine offered by the US for HF-24 marut was of inferior quality.

Arun said...

Dear Sir

Saudis are giving money to Pakistan

And now there are Terror attacks in IRAN

Does this mean that Saudis want Pakistan to launch a proxy war against
Iran

Just as Pakistan has been doing against Afghans and India

Ashish Gautam said...

I agree sir. Taras ATA hai uski intrrpreinterp skills pe. Pata nai kaise kaiso Ko hire Krke rkhte hai ye channels vale.
Sir I read about Mig29 upcoming order. Question is (1) ki JB zhuk-M2E MMR has been problematic then why IAF is again procuring it with new aircraft? Why aren't they going for AESA kinda radars as they are more advanced and better in terms of maintainance.
2) how good these MiG 29 are gonna be in comparison with F16 provided the condition that they are equipped with AESA radars, maws, better IRST and other pods??

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,

Then which rifle is proposed for the regular Army if not AK103?





Pratap said...

30 CRPF soldiers martyred in major fidayeen attack in Pulawama. This is even worse than URI. If this doesn't provoke a cross loc war I don't know what will.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Huge blast occurred in Avantipura/Pulbama Kashmir, on a big CRPF caravan. At least 30 soldiers martyred. Now will Iran join India in invading the Pakistan? At least India must retaliate and attack the POK inclusive of GB and liberate them.

Kaustav said...

The lack of security protocol in CRPF is galling. The top brass needs to be punished for such fuck ups, as do the planners of this movement. What a huge convoy! They do not learn either. RIP unfortunate souls.

Kaustav said...

Thus the BALLOON is well and truly PUNCTURED

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/if-back-wont-scrap-will-buy-more-rafale-at-better-rate-p-chidambaram-5582918/

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/02/13/588488/Iran-IRGC-Zaheda-roadside-bombing

Thus .....

AMIT BISWAS said...

This time pakistan is also ready for war ....so just chill after two days no body will even remember

Kapil said...

After what happened today in Pulwama i want to know what is India's threshold for air strikes in POK? Uri was an attack on a base but this is a Taliban like fidayeen attack which is unprecedented. No surgical strike can avenge an attack like this. If this doesn't provoke a formal Indian invasion of POK then army and govt will lose all respect.

Magicbullet said...

Sir , Will today`s incident be the trigger to what you have been alluding to for last 18 months .Just before the elections ....

Mitra said...

2 similar incidents :
one is india
another in iran

Satya said...

Today's attack is the perfect trigger to launch a limited war. Modi will and should sieze the moment now. Army must have war gamed this option several times before. War reserves are also adequate. A short and swift war limited to LoC will not just extract brutal revenge but also ensure Modi's reelection.

AMIT BISWAS said...

Godsend opportunity may backfire as PA/PAF is also ready

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV, DINEJA, RON, RAJESH MISHRA, PRATAP, KAPIL, MAGICBULLET, MURTHY, MITRA, AMIT BISWAS & SATYA:

Firstly, I was aghast to see last night that NONE of the so-called ‘strategic analysts’ even bothered to connect the twin terror attacks launched yesterday against Iran & India. In fact, both attacks were so well-executed that their planning & preparation process alone likely lasted for a 6-month period. While for Pakistan, the attack against Iran was meant to signal that all will not be honky-dory with Chabahar-Afghanistan connectivity at CPEC’s expense, the signal to India was actually a taunt, ,meaning will India now cancel the March 13 talks WRT Sri Kartarpur Corridor? Because if India does, then this will only contribute to alienating India’s Sikh populace.

Secondly, the youth of southern Kashmir have been undergoing radicalization since the previous decade, especially after the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service was inaugurated on April 7, 2005; the Poonch-Rawalakote route was opened for travel in June 20, 2006; cross-LoC trade on the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad (Salamabad/Chakandabagh) and Poonch–Rawalakote (Chakoti/Rawalakote) routes commenced from October 21, 2008 and in addition, four points—Chakothi-Uri, Rawalakot-Poonch and Chilhana-Tithwal and Tattapani-Mehndhar—became operational for foot movements. As a result, anyone from the Kashmir Valley could henceforth freely travel across the LoC & spend time inside PoK for brainwashing. The cross-LoC trading points also enabled trucks from J & K to ferry back narcotics, terrorists, weapons & explosives through Rawalakot into Poonch & from there to the Kashmir Valley, Facilitating all this was the total lack of X-Ray scanners on the Indian side & even if they are now installed, one can only guess how many of them actually workl

Thirdly, the suicide-bomber from South Kashmir therefore had to go across the LoC into PoK for indoctrination/brainwashing (this is usually done in Balakote) & also for learning the tradecraft of a suicide-bomber. The JeM-released videoclip showing him along with a bunch of M-4 carbines is proof of this, since M-4 carbines are not in use by either the IAS’s regular infantry units or any of the CAPFs & so cannot be stolen or pilfered from within India. Nor can any local Kashmiri rig up any vehicle with 350kg of explosives & so foreign expertise & supply of explosives & IED-fabrication skills becomes necessary. In all probability, ALL OF THESE came from PoK through the Rawalakote-Poonch roadway via trucks destined for ther Valley. Consequently, the Pakistani IED fabrication expert is still holed up somewhere inside south Kashmir & is probably awaiting successive supplies of IED-fabrication materials & high-explosives for further attacks in future. Nor is youth radicalisation in south Kashmir due to any ‘internal dynamic’ (whatever that is) as was being stated by the ‘desi bandaalbaaz’ yesterday on NDTV.

Cont’d below….

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

What should be India’s response? Logically, a regional problem requires a regional solution, i.e. Afghanistan, India & Iran should now draft a combined politico-military plan of action. Unilateral cross-LoC raids launched by India over the next 15 or even 30 days will not yield anything substantive. Instead, all efforts ought to be made to give rise to Pakistan’s three-front conundrum, i.e. while Iran should ratchet up tensions along its border with Pakistan, India should A) immediately commence the supplies of offensive weapons like T-55s. LFG 105mm light field artillery & 120mm mortars & even older Milan-2 & Konkurs ATGMs in appreciable quantities to the Afghan National Army; & B) India should formally declare that she does not recognize the Durand Line as the IB between Afghanistan & Pakistan since every IB has to be delineated on a map & demarcated on land with boundary pillars by both parties & since neither of these two exists, the Durand Line at best denotes a frontier & not any legally binding IB. All of this can be done over the next 2 weeks.

Next, China should now to firmly told that if Beijing continues to block the listing by the UNSC of the JeM as a terror outfit & Masood Azhar as a globally designated terrorist (despite JeM owning up to the latest terror attack through its videoclip), then there will be serious consequences WRT China-India bilateral trade. With China now involved in a trade war with the US, this is the worst time for China to become vulnerable on another trade war front against India.

Finally, if China refuses to budge, then the present-day govt must authorise India’s armed forces to undertake cross-LoC raids along the Haji Pir Bulge by this April with a view to capturing & holding for good some strategic real-estate areas within this Bulge.

To KAUSTAV: That the CRPF did not follow the laid-down SOPs is evident, since only an idiot will organise a road convoy of 78 vehicles containing 2,500 personnel & travelling a distance of 350km by road when the IAF’s C-130J-30s ought to have been used for such purposes. In fact, all the more reason now for the IAF to procure additional C-130J-30s for exclusive use by the CAPFs throughout India.

To VED: The OFB-developed 7.62 x 51 Ghaatak, of course. Do you really expect the lakhs of personnel of the Corps of EME, Army Supply Corps, Regiment of Artillery, Corps of Air Defence Artilery, Army Aviation Corps & Sappers who are not reqd to engage in direct firefights with hostile infantry forces to ALL have state-of-the-art imported firearms?

To SIDHARTH: The Ret’d General being an Armyman is as expected totally clueless about military aviation matters & is therefore ASSUMED that fiction is fact.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

China’s Underwater Hunt in the Indian Ocean:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcnrOKp2XsM

Kaustav said...

STEP 1 - By American Master

Terrorist Attack on Indian Security Forces Convoy

Press Statement
Robert Palladino
Deputy Spokesperson
Washington, DC
February 14, 2019

The United States condemns in the strongest terms the terrorist attack today on an Indian Central Reserve Police Force convoy in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. We extend our deepest condolences to the victims and their families, and wish a speedy recovery to those injured. The United States is resolutely committed to working with the Indian government to combat terrorism in all its forms. The UN designated, Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish-e-Muhammad has claimed responsibility for this heinous act. We call on all countries to uphold their responsibilities pursuant to UN Security Council resolutions to deny safe haven and support for terrorists

Anonymous said...

India should formally declare that she does not recognize the Durand Line as the IB between Afghanistan & Pakistan since every IB has to be delineated on a map & demarcated on land with boundary pillars by both parties & since neither of these two exists, the Durand Line at best denotes a frontier & not any legally binding IB.

Please mention what kind of politocostrategy importance does it hold? How it effects Pakistan? What good it serves to India?

Instead of going after haphazard military option officials are exercising.
why can’t India abandon IWT ? What implications will India face if it does so?

Ron

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

I myself felt sad and frustrated watching and reading comments by so called strategic thinkers of our Land. None so ever stressed the fact with US withdrawal & Taliban talks, Pakistan is feeling embolden. On one hand it orchestrated attack on Iran to as a signal to its Masters KSA & UAE who bailed it out and on other hand trying to tell India that Its coming all out for it.

I see situation going back to 2000/2001 unless Indian Govt really up the ante and take over Haji Pir and Areas north of Jammu along with LoC. It will really deter Pakistan else be ready for so called coward's policy of "Strategic Restrain".

Millard Keyes said...

All those remedies you suggested including procurement of C130J I am afraid will never even occur in the small self serving brains of those Netas you mention. Thus there will only be continued mouthing of some verbose anti-Pak rhetoric and various "vows" and promises whilst carrying on Business as Usual. Mark my word- Indian Leaders have not budged from their Dhoti-Gaddi aur Makaan doctrine.

Manish said...

1) Sir, what is the current per unit cost of a ship launched brahmos anti ship missile?

2) What is the sonar range of an agosta 90b sub against ships and other subs?

3) Which ships are the competitors for next generation missile vessel project of navy? Which ship design would you choose for the project?

4) Do you think India's fleet of SSKs would prevail in a fight against PN subs given our limitations?

5) How many jaguar maritime strike fighters do we possess?

6) Are all upgraded IAF mig 29upg capable of maritime strike? Or just a few?

7) Apart from ATAS and longer range uran e what other upgrades will be given to delhi class?

Thankyou sir

Kunal Jadhav said...

Is it true that tejas mk 1 has been cleared without GSh 23 on it ?

Why DRDO does'nt use triple missile pylons foe tejas?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: What I am saying is that is that the second active front along the Durand Line needs to be opened & for that to happen the ANA must be equipped with offensive weapons. This has been a longstanding demand from Kabul since 2011 & now is the time to go all out in meeting these Afghan requests. Meanwhile, what I had stated earlier today about the Paklistani IED experts’s presence inside south Kashmir is corroborated by this:

https://theprint.in/defence/jaish-afghan-war-veteran-in-kashmir-to-avenge-killing-of-masood-azhars-nephews/172335/

To RON: Had already explained it less than 24 hours ago. It will result in the second active front along the Durand Line needs to be opened & for that to happen the ANA must be equipped with offensive weapons. This has been a longstanding demand from Kabul since 2011 & now is the time to go all out in meeting these Afghan requests. If India abandons the IWT, then this tomorrow will make it extremely easy for China for construct more dams along the Indus River that originates in Ngari, TAR.

To PAWAN: Kindly rest assured that the ante will be upped for sure but in a calibrated manner & the military options of a sustained nature (lasting up to 3 months) are being dusted off & updated as I write this comment. However, the key to success lies along the Durand Line, since at the moment its high-altitude portions is being guarded by the NLI personnel. Thjis in turn means that the PA’s acclimatised high-altitude warfare forces are along the Durand Line & not along the LoC. So, if the IA wants to seek a numerical advantage along the LoC for the sake of launching offensive AirLand operations, then it is vital that the NLI forces too remain pinned down along the Durand Line.

Enigma said...

Sir,
1)You have said that those from South Kashmir have been undergoing radicalization ever since the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad,Poonch-Rawalakot,etc bus services were started.Is is also true that those from PoK come here and their hatred for Pakistan increases?

2)I don't know much about defence matters but would it be accurate to say that the PAF has nothing to match our SU-30MKIs?

3)How much time would it take to establish air superiority over Pakistan/PoK?

4)Which will be easier to capture.The so called "Azad" Kashmir or Gilgit-Baltistan?

Regards,
Enigma.

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Uh8NK1qVQaQ
The Big Picture - Isolate Pakistan
They are quiet clueless of what to do....

Ayush said...

3 month long sustained campaign? Limited war? Are we getting swayed by emotions, sir? Realistically speaking what are the chances of army conducting anything more than 2016 like surgical strikes at few location in POK?

Murthy said...

Asusual India is REACTING slowly. Not because it has to react just because the world and Indian Public is expecting something out of this situation.
Modi is conveying all party meet today/tomorrow.
no one has clue what to do. Everyone is thinking what to talk in the meeting, just to talk as if they are preparing for speaking assignment at school.

Modi: Please tell me what to do
Rahul: HAL..Rafale..Anil Ambani....
Sushma: where is my twitter...?
Rajnath: Jai SriRam....
Nirmala: TN Defence corridor....
NSA: we will react.....aaa...may be ... we will discuss things at Vivekananda Foundation
MOD/Army: We will react at the place and time we choose...probably fire in pitch dark at some remote location not to cause sound pollution to any..
Politicians/Celebs: right movement to tweet and google for the right words/sentences
Media: Thank God... got some hot news...no need to roam around streets

MY CLUELESS INDIA....EVERYTHING WILL DIE DOWN...GOD HAS GIVEN US TIME TO FORGET...JUST FEW DAYS....TILL MEDIA GET ANOTHER HOT SPICY NEWS...

buddha said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_F6b76lYY8&feature=share
Pulwama Attack Kashmir , Army Spy of Pakistan, MemoGate, Baloch Killings on Prime Time
revealing many secrets

Kapil said...

We are focusing too much on South Kashmir as if Muslims in North Kashmir are any less radicalsied. Only the Muslims in Poonch, Rajouri and some other Jammu districts have remained untouched by radicalization they even join IA in large numbers

Prasun K. Sengupta said...


To MANISH: 1) More than US$3 million per missile. 2) About 16km. 3) Had already uploaded photos of the vessels in a previous thread. 4) Why should SSKs chase one another when they have better things to do? 5) Only 10. 6) No. Only the base at Jamnagar will have Kh-35 ASCMs. 7) Shipborne NMRHs.

To KUNAL JADHAV: That’s correct. It is true. Same for the Tejas Mk.1A as well. So the IAF wants the DRDO to develop a belly-mounted gunpod housing the cannon for the LCA Mk.1 & Mk.1A. Triple-ejector racks are suited more for air-to-surface PGMs & not AAMs.

To ENIGMA: 1) Yes. Because the JKLF cadres are of the view that being physical prisoners within J & K is far better than being mental prisoners within PoK. 2) Correct. 3) There’s no need to establish air superiority over Pakistan because any future war won’t be fought anywhere throughout the IB due to the nuclear overhang. There will NEVER a total conventional war between India & Pakistan, period. Kinetic operations will therefore be possible only along the WB & LoC. 4) Gilgit Baltistan is sparsely populated & so if vertical envelopment tactics are employed for troop transportation by air, then the whole of PoK can be captured within 3 weeks.

To ANUP: Well, even in that case, ‘REDUCULAS’ will be far better than ridiculous, won’t it?

To KAPIL: Are you claiming that areas of northern Kashmir like Drass, Kargil, Batalik & Turtuk housing Shias are also radicalised as the ones from the five districts of south Kashmir? Or are you claiming that Drass, Kargil, Batalik & Turtuk are not part of north Kashmir?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA & AYUSH & MURTHY: Of course they are clueless, because they still haven’t yet understood the enormity of the challenge posed by Pakistan. For instance, the Indian PM yesterday said (I guess without applying his mind) that the terrorists have committed a BAHUT BADI GHALATI (an enormous mistake/error). What this means is that a mistake/error is an act committed unintentionally & is therefore worthy of forgiveness. The Indian PM should instead have used words like PAAP or GHOONAH (unforgivable crime.sin), & not Ghalati. So, if the PM’s choice of words is all wrong, then how can a well-considered, sustainable & deterrent response emerge from the ruling crop of ‘netas’? And that’s why the response should not be that of only seeking one-off retributions (like those of 29-9-2016), since a national security state like Pakistan that does not place any value on human life can always afford to expend its citizens on causes espoused by the PA. For deterring Pakistan from exporting terrorism, India needs to craft a sustainable strategy lasting at least another 4 years that includes the opening of a second military front against the PA through the Durand Line with Afghanistan’s & Iran’s help, while on the other hand increasing the tempo & intensity of cross-LoC kinetic operations that will involve the capturing of sizeable chunks of real-estate in the Haji Pir & Leepa Valley areas.

The intellectual deficiencies of successive Indian ‘netas’ WRT J & K and related Pakistan-exported terrorism is beautifully explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4gfLHzEKeg&t=21s

Meanwhile, it looks like the IAF has developed a sudden bout of amnesia by claiming that ACM B S Dhanoa is the first CAS of the IAF to visit Bangladesh:

https://twitter.com/IAF_MCC/status/1094973199517835265

If that is the case, then what was ACM Arup Raha doing in Bangladesh:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/iaf-chief-arup-raha-embarks-on-5-day-visit-to-bangladesh/articleshow/51082044.cms

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/bangladesh-pm-sheikh-hasina-praises-iafs-role-during-war-with-pakistan/articleshow/51110114.cms

While the IN’s 560-tonne Project 1241E.1 guided-missile corvette INS Prabal K-92, commissioned on April 11, 2002, has now had its MR-352 Positiv-E air-search radar radar replaced with the ELTA-suplied ELM-2238 radar:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzRZfGDX4AEzkn5.jpg

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, China is at it again batting for its chained rabid dog:


https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-silent-as-rest-of-world-condemns-pulwama-terror-attack-killing-40-1994016


https://www.rediff.com/news/report/china-once-again-refuses-to-list-masood-azhar-as-global-terrorist/20190215.htm

hope, reply will be in kind, as suggested by you.

Anonymous said...

ante will be upped for sure but in a calibrated manner & the military options of a sustained nature (lasting up to 3 months) are being dusted off & updated as I write this comment“
One hand u say plans has been forwarded on the other hand do you think really netas are going to give ahead to e execute these plans I highly doubt on nuclear overhang

Ron

Anonymous said...

1) Hello sir, can usv like seagulls etc replace coastal anti mine/anti sub crafts in capability or capacity?

http://elbitsystems.com/pr-new/elbit-systems-multi-mission-unmanned-surface-vessel-usv-system-demonstrated-unique-operational-capabilities-belgian-north-sea-mcm-trials/

Can it help us reduce/cancel needs for coastal ASW crafts and MCMV?

2) Will a belly gunpod free up usable space on Tejas?

3) You have adequately explained there will be no total war, but in the meanwhile, will the army and airforce along IB be reduced to high alert and aggressive posturing?
Will there be artillery duels and raids?

4) Should we capture territories around LOC, would Pakistan shift its efforts towards larger raids across "new line" done intermittently but in perpetuity, as and when it suits their economic and security situation?

5) What will be our navy's role in such? And how do they plan to employ aircraft carriers if called to action? How will PN/PAFs current AA/AD aimed weaponry like cm400akg, c602, harba, missile boats impact navys ops?

6) How do PN plans to use it's submarine force in conventional war, ( you have already explained the tiny nuclear capacity of their future sub fleet), same as 1971?

Thanks,

VSJ

Prranshu Yadav said...

Can you please explain the rationale behind Dhanush missile? Is it nuclear tipped or conventional? And will it be used in anti ship or land attack role?

Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
Afghanistan national army is already ill equiped and corruption in the army. Can ANA will sustain low intensity war on there own. Can they win against afghan taliban and take Halmand, Sangin, Kala musa, Lashgar gar on if india sent required ammunition to ANA?
Regards

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUMANTA NAG: Don’t worry, for the US has already got down to zeroeing in on all those locations from where the JeM uploads its videos on the Internet & so undeniable evidence will soon emerge (just like the US provided undeniable forensic evidence on the Pathankot terror attacks in early 2016), which in turn will be presented to the FATF for the inevitable vlacklisting of Pakistan. Also, China should now be told in no uncertain terms & openly that if it is not siding with India on this issue, the India’s national concensus will henceforth that China is always siding with those who are against India’s well-being. It is now high-time we started calling China’s bluff & being more open about the non-negotiable status of PoK being an integral part of J & K both constitutionally & in terms of UNSC resolutions & therefore all China-funded & supported-projects inside PoK that are part of CPEC are illegal as per international law.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-nsa-john-bolton-works-to-soothe-india-as-patience-wears-thin-after-pulwama/articleshow/68025014.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/terror-financing-watchdog-fatf-to-be-given-dossier-to-blacklist-pakistan-for-terror-links/articleshow/68026015.cms

RON: Looks like you’ve not drawn any lessons from OP Vijay & OP Safed Saagar, which too were conducted under the nuclear overhang.

DAshu said...

just like they planned to involve a local " bhatka Huya youth" to trigger this, the location would eventually be turned out from IoK.

Gaurav said...

Hi prasun..lca tejas has failed to hit a banshee UAV with R 77 missile in a2a ...can you tell the probable reason..is it fault with the missile?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VSJ: 1) Of course, it is already being done. 2) No. 3) PM NaMo has already stated that he has given a free rein to the armed forces, meaning ALL THREE ARMED SERVICES. 4) Around LoC are territories that are now PoK India has been capturing these since 1947 & only in 1999 no extre real-estate was captured. Once they are captured, the new LoC can always be negotiated or if it is not negotiated then India can just hold on to them just like Israel has with the Golan Heights. 5) What you are pointing at is full-scale war, which will never take place & even if a full-blown naval confrontation does take place, then all of the PN’s principal surface combatants will be destroyed within a matter of 3 hours from missiles that India can launch from both its SSKs & from the land. The IN’s MiG-29Ks with Kh-35UEs can always operate from air bases in Gujarat while Su-30MKIs can give them fool-proof offensive air-cover. 6) The PN’s SSKs will be confined to Pakistan’s territorial waters since the PN does not possess the number of SSKs reqd for waging both offensive & defensive submarine warfare.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Dhanush always had only conventional warheads & was to be used primarily for land-attack against Pakistan’s coastal economic/industrial infrastructure, just like the P-15 Termit missiles were used in 1971.

To MOHAN: Well, despite all its shortcomings, the ANA is still able to hold out against the Taliban in more than 50% of the territory of Afghanistan. So, with access to offensive weaponry it will be able to emply greater land-mobile & air-mobile firepower against the Taliban who use only Toyota Land Cruisers & motorcycles for mobility.

To DASHU: Not quite, so just wait & see what evidence is made public in the coming hours by the US.

To KAUSTAV: The real adversary isn’t Pakistan at all, but China, which is steadily being painted into a corner by both the US & India now that both the US & India have declared that they will co-sponsor the UNSC resolution on labelling Masood Azhar as a UN-designated global terrorist. For China, this is the worst nightmare, if you recall my earlier statements about the Chinaman absolutely dreading the prospect of losing face. So now, if India & the US succeeds in bringing out statements of condemnation from the majority of the world’s countries, then China will find it impossible to veto the UNSC resolution & this in turn will lead to China globally losing face. Nor can China accept the prospect of losing its prestige to India by climbing down from its support for Pakistan. So China will desperately be looking for a face-saving solution that it can sell within the country & within the CPC. And as usual it will try its level-best to get India to reciprocate by asking for India’s endorsement of its BRI & RCEP projects & also for reducing the Dalai Lama to a worthless vegetable. But this is where India must resolutely say NO to all this & instead India must tell China in no uncertain terms that if China does not budge, then India will start drawing parallels between its transparent approach to tackling domestic instability within J & K, & China’s draconian approach to the same type of problem in Xinjiang. Following that, India should ask China why the latter wants everyone in the world to agree to China’s PoV regarding Xinjiang, while the same standard cannot be applied when it comes to India’s methodology of tackling domestic instability in J & K. And this is something that will deeply rattle China. And if China next decides to increase the tempo of PLA transgressions across the LAC, then India should up the ante & impose 200% tariffs on each & every Made-in-China product that is on sale in India, for this will really hurt the potbellies of the Confucians.

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

Your habit of getting to the logical truth is confounding...The particulars aside, but Tejas/LCA Mark 2 or MWF or MCA or AMCA if it ever comes about will be more or less the same. (Twin Engine / Single Engine whatever) India might as well start on a 6th generation combat aircraft in a tie up with some consortium as deemed feasible.

I quote "Deodhare conceded that there have been delays in the Tejas programme due to optimistic projections of time by its designers, developers and producers, and added that Tejas Mark II will be a twin-engine advanced medium combat aircraft (AMCA) with a heavier GE-414 engine as compared to the GE 404 engine of the Mark I. The twin-engine fighter will also have a naval variant. The development of the Mark II has already received a green signal from the defence minister and is set to go before the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) for full financial approval of development costs." from this article half-baked or otherwise :- https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/35-years-after-inception-tejas-mark-i-design-frozen/story-y55fWRPZMMyARTCZMgzqIJ.html

The PIB press releases mention it as the MWF http://www.pib.nic.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1564890#.XGgt-6sYsi0.twitter

Of course, finalising on a twin engine fighter as also the projected twin engine HAL SPORT / LIFT TRAINER, while reinventing the wheel, no make this the only feasible possibility financially or technologically A combination of MWF/MCA/AMCA might just happen and might be achieved within a realistic time frame.

This will make it logical to procure both for additional Rafale type MMRCA and F16 type SEF, which we have to go in for anyway. There is no possible way for MK2/MWF/MCA/AMCA to be production ready within the next seven years, considering that even such specifications as to number of engines per aircraft is still being decided upon.

Prranshu Yadav said...

But if Dhanush is conventionally armed than why was it tested by the strategic forces command? And wouldn't brahmos suffice for conventional attacks?

Millard Keyes said...

"The real adversary isn’t Pakistan at all, but China,". Boy what a relief to hear you say those words which I have been saying and posting all over the internet for years! Even the boundary dispute that China harps on is an excuse. The real plan is to keep competition away by force and China fully knows with its manpower and intellectual resources, India is the only country that can challenge its dominance. Keep India bleeding and wasting money on security and defence and China can keep ahead by a huge margin. Even if India gave away all the lands to China terrorism and sectarianism will never end in India and neither will China turn into a friend. Pakistan provides China the perfect alibi. All the blame falls on it whilst China washes hands. The IED and explosives used no doubt were China sourced. All the weapons the terrorists used may have Paki stamp on but China sourced. In fact the reason ISI is so powerful is because the Chinese Spy Agency works alongside teaching its tricks. If one thing dictatorships are very good at is snooping and counter espionage.

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

But why is China so hell bent on protecting Masood Azhar? What's in it for them. And I don't think Indian leadership has balls to do what you said,i.e, staredown China and get what we want without giving up on bri/ rcep/Dalai Lama.

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Murthy said...

I appreciate your enthusiasm.
But Modi or any indian leader do not have what we call balls to do such a thing.
Joining WTO is a shit decision India made combined with FTA deals with singapore and mauritius which are scams.
200 % import tariff from china is what india should do at doklam time.
For big countries like india joing WTO is a sin and those who signed must be castrated. India must do business bilaterally based on templates for each zone such as EU, AU, South America, North America, ME etc
When china protested Modi visiting AP, India must be protesting One china rule.
And what makes India shy to question chinese why they are treating their minorities badly?

Asusual this loss will be forgotten.



Prasun K. Sengupta said...

It is now emerging that the Pulwama terror strike by JeM was carried out almost 2 weeks behind schedule, since the original plan was to carry out the suicide-bombing on or around February 5. But heavy snowfall & inclement weather in the Kashmir Valley prevented this from happening & for Pakistan's ISI now the entire operation has gone terribly wrong since, instead of reaping the windfalls after hosting the Saudi Prince MBS & the Taliban delegation from Doha in Islamabad (as had been originally envisaged), the terror strike took place just before the commencement of these 2 events, which has now led to a nightmare scenario for Pakistan.

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

Subject of course to our NETAS not fouling things up in an election year and idiotic Dals and Senas alienating Indian Citizens. Such elements are no less traitors than the terrorists and stonepelters in Kashmir. However, we do have to fear our idiotic strategy blind netas in an election year. They neither understand Chanakya nor the strategy for the Great Game, now being played out. I sincerely hope the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement of this being a new India of new principles and policies is not mere bluster and hot air. I sincerely hope, that India is a winning player in the Great Game and not a victim or bystander.

Anonymous said...

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pulwama-attack-government-scraps-security-for-5-separatists-after-pulwama-attack-1994856?pfrom=home-topscroll

The Hurriyat said its leaders had never asked for security and it was the government which insisted on it. "It was the government's decision at the time to keep it (security), today it is their decision to remove it. It's not an issue for us,"

What do u think ? What consequences they will face if security is withdrawn ?
2)India is building diplomatic and trade pressure on Pakistan, which is facing grave financial troubles. A day after withdrawing the 'Most Favoured Nation' (MFN) status granted to Pakistan, India on Saturday hiked the basic customs duty on all goods imported from the neighbouring country to 200%.
Why should legitimate businesses should suffer because of some fringe groups ? Don’t u think isn’t this regressive step?

Ron

Kapil said...

Sir, How will PA respond if there are 155 mm artillery fire assaults to pulverize the enemy followed by a IA ground invasion to redraw LOC by capturing strategic heights like Haji pir? How many days will it take for IA to do this? What are the setback that we can face in such a scenario? Is this option even being discussed?

bhoutik said...

an iranian online source is reporting that 10th Tactical Fighter Base in Chabahar has been reinforced with deployment of F-4Es from Bandar Abbas & that Indian Air Force military aircraft will use the base.

*https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1096767204895440896
*https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1097086322920038401

are these reports correct?

Surender said...

Prasun sir,

I am reposting a few unanswered queries from the last thread, apologies for that.
I know that it is best for me to come to my own opinion as one of the readers pointed out, but I'd like your view none the less, since I know of your depth of knowledge in geopolitical matters.

I was talking last month with a very imminent jurist. He has held many powerful positions in the UPA government. He said a few things that shocked me and that I am having trouble believing.

1) He claims that the only reason pakistan military corners all the resources is due to the perceived threat from india. So the best way to ensure war doesn't happen is for india to disarm so that Pakistani public can know that there is no reason for their military to exist and will mutually disarm.

2) Even more, he insisted that China will NEVER attack india and that many things said about China is "establishment propaganda". He said the 20 million death toll of the great leap forward era is FAKE and that it is just western propaganda.
He also said that tibetan people as such are content with Chinese rule and that it is only the priestly class of Tibet that is against China.

3) He says that china does Infact give a lot democratic freedoms to Chinese citizens, and there are plenty of elections to Chinese official positions and that the only difference between US/UK/india and China is that we have a multiparty democracy and china have a single party democracy?

4) He said the only way to move forward with China is to create a common market with China like how the countries of Western Europe created EU which prevented war.

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_GwrjlOVNIA
7 seats in the LS and 24 seats in the J&K assembly lie vacant, shouldn't these seats be filled?
Will this be considered now...

Unknown said...

Sir latest news says that Pakistan has shifted terrorist launch pad from LOC.
And now they don't have any target.
Do you think we will strike the pakistani army post

varun said...

Hi,

Just one question. Is there some sane way Indian forces can block Karakorum Highway for China and Pakistan?

VARUN KUMAR said...

Sir
just read this article. very nice writeup.

https://www.news18.com/news/opinion/opinion-time-for-govt-to-wake-up-its-not-militarys-job-to-plan-sub-conventional-war-in-enemy-territory-2039327.html?ref=hp_top_pos_3

I have some questions.
Does India have zero sub conventional covert assets against pakistan ?

Has PM I.k. Gujral has something to do with it that we lost this capability in the 90s ?

Could TSD formed during General V. K. Singh have pevented attacks like pathankot, Uri, Pulwama etc.

Why has present government and our security apparatus like NSA has not ventured in this domain like forming TSD type structure or creating sub conventional assets ?

Why are we always remain in reactive mode instead proactively destroy terrorist threats.

I have also read Christene Fair articles of the last few days. She is speaking along same lines about creating sub conventional force.

She also says first India itself declare pakistan a terrorist state and then ask other countries like US to do the same but not before that.

Why are we not declaring pakistan a Terrorist state ?

Is present Trump Administration really willing to help us especially if it is dependent on pakistan for exiting Afganistan and talks with Taliban whose next round is going to take place in Islamabad ?

Is there something more in Sushma Swaraj brief stopover in Iran ?

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun Da,

Observing social media one can only deduce that everybody it moving and talking like headless chicken. From Politicians to Ex-army gentlemen to so called strategic experts its seems no one has clear idea.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GAURAV: if that is so, then this would have been the maiden firing of an R-77 from a Tejas Mk.1, since the R-77 was never before integrated with the Tejas Mk.1. And if the R-77 was fired, then why has the Derby BVRAAM been integrated with Tejas Mk.1? Hence, all talk about Tejas Mk.1 firing R-77 is FAKE NEWS.

To KAUSTAV: LoLz! MWF is the same as LCA-AF Mk.2 or Tejas Mk.2. So far no one has given any name to the AMCA & therefore the teag of Tejas can’t be attached to it. In other words, the ‘desi patrakaar’ got totally confused between the MWF & AMCA. In addition, the previous DRDO Secretary Dr. S. Christopher is on record for having stated that the MWF/LCA-AF Mk.2 will be powered by a turbofan to be co-developed by GTRE & SAFRAN/Snecma Moteurs, while the F414 will be used on the AMCA.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Testing a product does not automatically mean that it is in service or it will enter service.

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: Because Pakistan has promised that the JeM’s muscle power will be used for strengthening the Afghan Taliban & its consequent participation in a future govt in Afghanistan, which in turn will expand the scope of CPEC to include Afghanistan. For the Chinese Confucians, this indeed is a mouth-watering prospect for making more money out of the CPEC.

To KAUSTAV: The ruling party hotheads afflicted with the ‘Hindutva’ virus will never understand the meaning of ‘Information Warfare’ & all they crave for is just the routine revenge, thereby leaving the problems unsolved. For instance, any level-headed leader endowed with the gift of strategic visioning would have stated long time ago that the acts of poisoning the minds of all the youth of J & K who have so far been weaned away from leading normal lives by being injected with deviant religiosity & being converted into terrorists to serve as cannon-fodder for Pakistan, will not go unpunished either. This singular statement of clarification alone would have gone a long way in helping India claim moral ascendancy in the on-going counter-terror operations in south Kashmir. Instead, an utter lack of clarity on the part of politicians from across all mainstream Indian national parties has prevented the emergence of such a narrative & as a result, the whole issue has been reduced to a communal ‘us versus them’ discourse, whose violent manifestations are now been seen throughout Jammu. To me, this is the saddest part.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RON: That definitely isn’t enough. Those leaders of the APHC, especially those belonging to the Muslim Conference & JKLF who were directly complicit in the genocide against the Kashmiri Pandits should be charged, tried, convicted & sentenced. And those sentenced to death should be hanged without any delay & their corpses should be forever consigned to the deep waters of the Indian Ocean. Otherwise, how can justice be done to the Kashmiri Pandits & how can they be convinced to go back to their original homes in the Kashmir Valley if their killers are still roaming free? So, it is imperative for any Govt of India to fulfill its part of the social contract that it has with the citizens of India in terms of providing security & guaranteeing the fundamental freedom of ‘Right to Life’. And now is also the time to clamp down on all kinds of hate-speeches emanating from the mosques in certain portions of the Kashmir Valley, just like what Bangladesh, China, all central Asian Republics, Indonesia, Malaysia & Singapore have done since the 1990s. This alone will go a long way in extinguishing the flames that had been lit in the early 1990s, as explained here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/06/when-how-religiosity-inspired.html

To KAPIL: Today, there are only 100,000 PA soldiers deployed along Pakistan’s eastern front, while 200,000 PA soldiers are deployed all along the Durand Line. So how do you reckon the PA will respond?

To BHOUTIK: Even if one assumes that they are correct, it is a familiar posturing on Iran’s part & it reminds me of 1999 when a similar large-scale mobilisation was done along the Iran-Afghan border after 8 Iranian diplomats in Afghanistan were murdered by the Taliban in Mazar-e-Sharif. The IRIAF today is in a severely depleted state & almost all of its US-origin combat aircraft are devoid of critical spares & hence they won’t last in combat beyond a few hours, be it against the PAF or the RSAF. The PAF on the other hand with its ZDK-03/Karakoram Eagle AEW & CS plaforms & JF-17s can easily conduct successful attacks against the IRIAF’s air base at Konarak near Chabahar. The only combat platforms that the IRIAF can use for sustained periods are the MiG-29s, Su-24Ms & Su-25s for which Russia’s product-support is available.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SURENDER: Do you really want me to comment on such crap? 1) If India disarms while such a disarming be only along the India-Pakistan front or will it be a total disarming against China, Nepal, Myanmar, Bangladesh & Sri Lanka as well? Or will India have to maintain armed forces for protection from these countries? If yes, then how will Pakistan be convinced that such forces will never be diverted by India for use against Pakistan? 2) If only the Tibetan priestly class is against China, then how come the bulk of those fleeing China since the 1980s have been those from the younger generation who have never been priests? 3) Elections in China are never open to the citizens. Instead, elections for official positions are permitted only for those individuals who are members of the CPC & only these party-members can vote for elections. Those who are common citizens & who are not members of the CPC are NEVER allowed to vote. 4) And in such a common market as envisaged by China, all other members will be reqd to supply China with only raw materials/commodities & the captive markets, while China will remain the sole manufacturing powerhouse. So, in conclusion, kindly request this ‘eminent jurist’ to either seek psychiatric counselling, or commit suicide so that we all are rid of such nonsensical/delusional/self-defeatist.avoidable living entities.

To BUDDHA: I had already highlighted this here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/06/when-how-religiosity-inspired.html

To UNKNOWN: That’s FAKE NEWS, since during the winter months all such launch-pads are shut down from December till late March.

To VARUN: Sure. Just create landslides by bombing the mountainsides & ridgelines along the KKH.

To VARUN KUMAR: 1) There are several assets. Haven’t you read SEEKING SEHMAT or watched the movie RAAZI? Several such assets are still active throughout PoK. 2) Capabilities were not lost at all in the 1990s, but they were told to remain dormant. 3) Outfits like TSD can be created/formed overnight & just because one shuts down, it does not mean that no other such an outfit exists. 4) India must not declare Pakistan a terrorist state, but must declare the PA as a terrorist army & should treat it as such. India is not against the Pakistani people, but against the deep-state comprising the PA & Pakistan’s civilian bureaucracy. Likewise, India must continue issuing visas for Pakistani students & those in need of medical assistance so that they can see with their own eyes what India is all about. This is what INFORMATION WARFARE is all about, but which is beyond the understanding of the current crop of ruling elite of India, who only know how to indulge in knee-jerk ‘Katti & Batti’ antics that don’t serve to produce any favourable or enduring results. This is exactly what folks like Ret’d Lt Gen Syed Atta Hasnain have been trying to explain (but in vain) in various TV channels for the past 6 months.

Buddha said...

This time too govt of India will do just pointless vote oriented revenge of some limited scale that may not encompass the big game that you are advocating ..Simply they probably lack vision ....And clarity of thought....What you think sir

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pXz5QT7ecFk
BREAKING! Lukashenko To Putin: Belarus Is Ready to Unite With Russia If Our People Are Ready For it!

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

VMT, The journalist certainly mixed things up while the PIB press release was accurate but scrapping the AMCA or at least collaboration for designing ground up as a 6th generation MMRCA to be completed within the next 15-20 years would be more feasible.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: This is the kind of madness that plays into the hands of the enemy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jK7gqzIpPbw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAxXGjTNI9g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J8hw3EcRjeI

And this guy Hashim Qureshi should not have been denied security:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvATp9mOKNU

He was one of the hijackers of an Indian Airlines flight to Pakistan back in 1971, but as he spent more time in that country, he got thoroughly disillusioned & came back to Mother India & unlike that retard Yasin Malik (who thinks that even after indulging in killings, he can assume that after renouncing violence all his sins will be forgiven) who indulged in communal violence in the 1990s & was actively helped by Sheikh Rasheed (now the federal railways Minister of Pakistan), Qureshi has been on the forefront of exposing Pakistani atrocities inside PoK ever since. Folks like him need to be made use of to expose the Pakistani doublespeak.

To PAWAN: I totally agree & it's high time India's netas started learning from Afghanistan on how to develop a spine:

Afghanistan Takes Pakistan to UN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la3HVsOtfcM

And finally, this scum-sucking HARAAMI & Mirpuri supporter of Pakistan Lord Nazir Ahmed has been exposed by BBC Newsnight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHRxoFrIC7M

The Sanatani Bhartiya said...

Prasun,
I totally agree with your viewpoint.It is the Pak Army and its ISI which is the threat and not the Pak People who are mostly being misguided. India's Netas are not bothered about anything other than 'main mujhe and meri khursi" Therefore I doubt whether any of India's Netas will take any interest in any action against them unless the voters force them.It is basically their totally selfish nature and the security shield behind which all these characters know they cannot be targeted. They are least bothered about the common man/voters and even less so about the security forces be it the armed forces or the paramilitary being targeted or the body bags piling up or even for that matter India and its well being.I also have a feeling about China.Whenever the Chinese take interest in a country they generally buy off the top man and the people who matter like in the case of Maldives and Sri Lanka.Hence the action against China you are proposing should ideally take place but for these fifth columnists placed in powerful appointments who have been bought off.What do you think?Is there a likelihood of any action by our revered leaders or they are just blowing off steam as usual and indulging in hate mongering to suit their sick mentality?

Pratap said...

Everyone including you are talking about sustained cross LOC military campaign and limited war. But the questions that need to be asked 1) Is IA capable of doing this and sure of success? 2) Will the Government show courage to authorise such a task? The nation is waiting.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
This is about your exchange with Gaurav on the issue of the missile being fired from Tejas...

In the Vayu Shakti 2019 in this video while explaining the swing-role ops of a Tejas the announcer says at 7 and again at 7.27 minutes in this video the next action to be from a Tejas and the missile used is a R-73 (The Vympel R-73).

Later this missile flys by the MEET(Manoevarable Expendable Aerial Target) and fails to hit the MEET at 8.37.

So they must have integrated the R-73 at least in Tejas.

Kane

Anonymous said...

I know this question is repeated but I am having doubt. Is that RAW's offensive capabilities are less than those of ISI's? If not then why are we not being able to dominate them in this hybrid warfare?
Tushar

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KPFoueuRtek
Here's how India can take revenge of militants strike on Jammu Kashmir's Pulwama CRPF convoy

Majority of the above mentioned steps can be taken on quick successions.

AD said...

Dada, once again your opinion came true. This time with Arjun MK-1A. You opined that HNS version would be called MK-2 & the avatar being termed as MK-2 in reality would be MK - 1A. IN fact your comment that MK-2 would sport weight reduction of 3 ton is accurate as well. http://idrw.org/army-accepts-mark1-a-version-of-arjun-tanks/

AD said...

Prasun da, Can you share your thought on this piece? http://idrw.org/go-for-the-kill-best-time-to-dismember-a-crumbling-pakistan-economically-geographically-militarily/

Unknown said...

I am afraid naveen that you are not realising that problems in India is because of a deficient and colonised education system. The Indian education system was destroyed centuries ago by burning of universities like nalanda, takshila etc. The patshala system at villages provided very important basic skills including maintaining hygiene. This was uprooted by the British. What we have today is a colonised education system which merely cut pastes and creates low self esteem people and totally irrelevant for an economy that aspires to be a knowledge driven economy. That's why positive cultural revival is very important so that across the board there is indigenous thinking. Dont you wonder where are the engineering skills that created works like the Taj Mahal, chittorgarh fort etc. Are they not civil engineering marvels. All this puja path are merely symtoms and not the problem.

Regards

Kunal

DAshu said...

in this one, he himself talking or his boss speaking from his mouth - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nOb0lJoDiY

soi said...

Hello prasun da,
1. Your views/analysis on/of Imran Khan's speech?
2. Should we expect a limited cross border kinetic retaliation like surgical strikes or only kadi ninda and stuff?

Thanks
Soikot Banerjee