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Monday, May 18, 2020

What Has PLAGF Learnt From Dogra Gen Zorawar Singh's Conquests of Western Tibet


As I will explain in another thread on the imperatives for waging high-altitude plateau warfare, for waging such warfare, one will firstly have to overfly mountains and reach the plateaux in TAR both on the eastern & western fronts. Secondly, for any Corps-sized offensive expeditionary force to achieve success, it will have to be launched along 3 separate vectors, i.e. one from Depsang Plain in Ladakh towards Rutog; the second from Uttarkhand via the Lipulekh Pass towards the Ngari/Kailash Mansarovar area; and third, from Tashigang in Himachal Pradesh towards Kailash Mansarovar via Gartok, until they converge at a point (see map above). And this point of convergence must first be secured as a safe bridgehead by an air-mobile brigade.
So, what one needs to achieve success are: an air-mobile brigade, a mechanised division, and a light infantry division. And all thesde should have integral combat engineering, EW support, air-defence artillery cover & a seamless battlefield logistics process. Consequently, by doing the math, we can safely conclude that what is required for a successful ground offensive on high-altitude plateaux are heavylift helicopters, more heavilift helicopters and medium-lift helicopters in large numbers; plus STOL transport aircraft like C-130J-30s--all backed up by favourable tactical air superiority. Attack helicopters will not be of much use at such forbidding heights and this also explains why the PLAGF has not yet deployed its Z-10 and Z-19 attack helicopters in TAR.
Like India, China too has conducted deep studies into the offensive ground campaigns of Gen Zorawar Singh and has correctly assessed that the only worthwhile offensive by the IA can be staged only from eastern Ladakh/eastern Himachal Pradesh and northeast Uttarkhand. And that is also the reason why last December the IAF stated that more ALGs will be coming up in Uttarkhand to add to the one at Dharasu. And that is also why the IA’s 14 RAPIDS has since been converted into a mountain division & has been relocated to Himachal Pradesh, this being done in order to strength the IA’s positions in the LAC running along Himachal Pradesh, which can be brought to play to forestall any PLAGF mischief there in case the IA were to launch a high-intensity offensive in the west along the LoC into PoK.
And all these together explain why the PLAGF’s helicopters routinely violate Indian airspace in Uttarkhanmd and Himachal Pradesh (to monitor IA deployment patterns there along the LAC); and why China, with Nepal’s assistance, is anxious to deny India the road transportation route via the Lipulekh Pass towards the Kailash/Mansarovar area in TAR.
Creeping Land Encroachments Since 1956
In Ladakh, India has since mid-1999 witnessed persistent PLA transgressions-in-strength at the Depsang Bulge, Trig Heights, Spanggur Gap and Chip Chap Valley in northeastern Ladakh. During wartime, the PLA’s most probable intention would be to enter from the south of the Karakoram Range and cross the Shyok River from the east. The PLAGF has also moved motorised forces into Charding Nalla since 2009 and these could eventually threaten the Manali-Leh route. China thus is estimated to want to push Indian control to the left of Shyok River in the north and left of the Indus River in the east, possibly to establish both rivers as natural boundaries. In Chushul, the aim is to reach Luking to take control of the entire Panggong Tso Lake. This three-pronged strategy would make India defenceless both in the Indus Valley and the Nubra Valley.
Since 1986, China has taken land in the Skakjung area in the Demchok-Kuyul sector in eastern Ladakh. By 2011, it had moved to the Chip Chap area in northeastern Ladakh. Unlike the lowlands in eastern Ladakh, the Chip Chap Valley is extremely cold and inhospitable. Until end-March, it remains inaccessible, and after mid-May, water-streams impede vehicles moving across the Shyok River. This leaves only 45 days for effective patrolling by the IA and Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP). For China, accessibility to Chip Chap is easier. No human beings inhabit the area. No one else except the Indian Army and ITBP have a presence there. China’s probable intention would be to enter from the south of the Karakoram Range and cross the Shyok River from the east. That would be disastrous for Indian defence, leaving the strategic Nubra Valley vulnerable, possibly impacting supply-lines and even India’s hold over the Siachen Glacier. It is quite possible that China is eyeing the waters of the Shyok and Chang Chenmo rivers, to divert them to the arid Aksai Chin soda-plains and its Ali region. The only provocation from the Indian side has so far been the opening of advanced landing grounds (ALG) at Daulat Beg Oldie, Fukche and Nyoma. In eastern Ladakh, the 45km-long Skakjung area is the only winter pasture land for the nomads of Chushul, Tsaga, Nidar, Nyoma, Mud, Dungti, Kuyul and Loma villages. This area sustains 80,000 sheep/goats and 4,000 yak/ ponies during winter. They consume over 75,000 quintals of tama or dry forage, worth Rs.10 crore annually. China’s advance there intensified after 1986, causing huge scarcity of surface grass, even starvation for Indian livestock. Since 1993, the modus operandi of China’s military incursions has been to scare Indian herdsmen into abandoning grazing land and then to construct permanent structures. Until the mid-1980s, the boundary lay at Kegu Naro—a day-long march from Dumchele, where India had maintained a forward post till 1962. In the absence of Indian activities, Chinese traders arrived in Dumchele in the early 1980s and China gradually constructed permanent roads, buildings and military posts there. The prominent grazing spots lost to China include Nagtsang (1984), Nakung (1991) and Lungma-Serding (1992). The last bit of Skakjung was taken in December 2008.
China’s assertion in Ladakh grew after it built infrastructure in its Ngari prefecture to develop Kailash-Manasarovar into a tourist complex to attract affluent local and international tourists. Ngari’s rapid development was a precursor of things to come. China has thus been applying the Sino-India Guiding Principle of 2005 to consolidate its position, for it knows that only 0.6% of the Ladakh region is inhabited. The PLA has always used nomadism as an instrument for incursion. The migration of Changpa nomads on specific routes has been a key component of China’s national security, something India never understood till 2010. The imposition of multiple restrictions by Indian civil administration authorities in Ladakh has led to a massive shrinking of pastureland and the de-nomadisation of Changthang Ladakh, adversely impacting national security. China wants to push Indian control to the left of Shyok River in the north and left of the Indus River in the east, possibly to establish both rivers as natural boundaries. In Chushul, the aim is to reach Luking to take control of the entire Panggong Tso Lake. The three-pronged strategy would make India defenceless both in the Indus Valley and the Nubra Valley. As of today, the issue is not reclaiming 38,000 sq km of Aksai Chin lost to China in 1962, but retaining the territory lying inside the Indian portion of the LAC.
PLA reconnaissance incursions into India-administered territory—by land, sea and air—increased after 2005, with as many as 233 violations in 2008 and more than 500 transgressions from 2010 to 2012. The incursions increased after a series of exercises were carried out in 2004 and 2005 by the PLA’s then Lanzhou Military Region (now absorbed into the WTC), in which the PLA had theorised that India was capable of launching a limited attack on the western portion of Aksai Chin from Sub Sector North (SSN). In August 2009 alone there were 26 incursions in Ladakh, when the first noise was made about PLA troops painting rocks red in the Chumur region. Chumur, near Thankung post, where the maximum number of airspace violations by the PLA Army Aviation helicopters have taken place, is 70km from the LAC near Panggong-Tso Lake. A PLA patrol painted China on the rocks near Charding-Nilung Nala in Demchok in Ladakh on July 8, 2012. Such events continued with further intrusions by China in the Trig Heights and Panggong-Tso Lake. In April 2013, the Depsang incident took place which, by the PLA’s own admission, was in retaliation of the Indian Army’s construction of a single watchtower along the LAC in Chumur, a remote village on the Ladakh-Himachal Pradesh border, which is claimed by China as its own territory and which has been frequented by PLA helicopter incursions almost every year. Chumur represents a deep vulnerability for the PLA as it is the only area across the LAC to which the PLA does not have direct access. On July 16, 2013, 50 PLA soldiers riding on horses and ponies crossed over into Chumur and staked claims to the territory and only went back after a banner drill with the ITBP troops. This had been preceded by two PLA helicopters violating Indian airspace over Chumur on July 11.
How IA’s Mechanised Forces Got Inducted Into Ladakh
This saga was already detailed before by Ret’d Lt Gen H S Panag here:

https://www.newslaundry.com/2017/02/10/the-road-to-ladakh

https://www.newslaundry.com/2017/02/17/the-trials-in-ladakh
It was in the last quarter of 1986 that the Indian Army, under OP KARTOOS, temporarily had six T-72M1s airlifted to Leh along with a Regiment of BMP-2 ICVs for deployment in Chushul, Finger Area and Spanggur Gap. Since the conduct of OP KARTOOS, the IA’s Karu-based 3 ‘Trishul’ Division had until 2012 just one mechanised infantry regiment—1 Guards—with 52 BMP-2 ICVs. This Regiment used to carry out regular manoeuvre warfare exercises in the Wari La region in Pangong, which is located at an altitude of 16,600 feet ASL. The IAF too had built a makeshift airstrip in Mud Village near Panggong Tso.
The then Indian Army Chief of the Army Staff’s (COAS Gen Krishnaswamy Sundarji) words—“Go to Ladakh and make history!”—were ringing in Col H S Panag’s ears as he left the conference. The burden of expectations had been placed on his shoulders and on his unit, 1 Mechanised Infantry Regiment (1 Madras Battalion). The Battalion already had an illustrious history of 212 years, but tradition and history are a continuum. It had participated in every war fought before and after Independence, it was the first to be mechanised and it was to be the first to be inducted into the High Altitude Area (HAA) of Ladakh. With these thoughts, Col Panag got down to the task of planning the induction. 1 MECH INF was to take over the 20 BMP-2s of the ad hoc mechanised force already in Ladakh. The Regiment had to induct 32 BMP-2s and three armoured recovery vehicles (ARV). The two Armoured Squadrons had to induct 14 T-72M1s and one ARV each. It required 49 sorties of IL-76MD transport aircraft (one sortie could carry two BMP-2s or one T-72M1/ARV). While the IAF had practiced carriage of medium battle tanks in plains, but landing at Leh Airport—located at 10,300 feet and surrounded by high hills—presented technical difficulties. The IAF rose to the occasion and the entire equipment was safely landed at Leh by the end of Jun 1988. Col Panag went to Ambala to oversee the airlift and also flew to Leh a number of times. He took over the Regiment in the first week of July and the Regiment was to induct by road from Jammu in the end of July 1988. This was a formidable challenge as the Regiment’s drivers had never driven in the mountains. The Regiment had a 120-vehicle convoy and on the first day, the inexperienced drivers created chaos on Highway NH-1A. The problem was solved by slowing down the speed to 30kph and Col Panag himself drove at the head of the convoy. The 800km journey to Ladakh is notorious for accidents. All units inducting into Ladakh generally meet with one or two unfortunate mishaps. However, precautions ensured that the Regiment arrived in Leh after five days’ journey, without any mishap. The Regiment less one Company temporarily settled down at Karu, 40km from Leh. One Company was to be located 120km to the East at Tangtse for deployment in Chushul Sector, which was another 100km to the East. The move of this Company by road over the 17,500 feet Chang La Pass was a great confidence builder. The BMP-2 is a unique ICV and could maintain the same average speed as heavy wheeled vehicles. Within a week, the Regiment selected the new administrative base for mechanised forces at Stakna, close to Karu. Within two months, the accommodation for the troops and sheds for the equipment were constructed: 50 troops barracks and 15 sheds for T-72M1s and BMP-2s, along with offices and messes were built in record time (two months). Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw was on a visit to Ladakh at the time and on Col Panag’s request, he inaugurated the Officers Mess and had lunch with the Regiment. As preparation, the Regiment went over all terrain and operational reports from the last 40 years, since 1947 and also studied the history of the region. Col Panag paid special attention to the campaigns of the great General Zorawar Singh, from 1834 till 1841, when he had captured a vast tract of Tibet, right up to Mansarovar Lake. In fact, he was cremated at Taklakot, near the lake in 1841. The War of 1962 was also analysed in detail, particularly the employment of the six AMX-13 light tanks that had been flown into Chushul in November 1962. The Regiment also had the benefit of the experience of the ad hoc mechanised force, which was in Ladakh since the end of 1986. The following challenges were before:

Physical fitness and well-being of troops in HAA
Reconnaissance of the operational area
Evolving the offensive and defensive operational role
Technical maintenance of the equipment in the extreme                    climate
Validating the performance of the T-72M1s and BMP-2s
Validating the operational role in field exercises
Test exercise of the Combat Group by higher HQ.                       
There is a popular Army saying in Ladakh that goes like this: “In the land of the Lama, do not be a Gama (a famous wrestler).” It implies one should not compromise with the laid-down norms of survival in HAA. But soldiers must also be extremely fit to fight in this terrain. Without proper acclimatisation, there is the risk of High Altitude Pulmonary Oedema, which can be fatal. It is one of the many reasons for non-battle casualties that take place in Ladakh every year. During the Regiment’s two-year stay in Ladakh, it did not suffer any climate, fire or vehicle accident casualty during its tenure. This was because of education, adherence to norms, strict supervision and personal example. Just this achievement alone made the Regiment famous in Northern Command. The terrain of Eastern Ladakh is unique and there is no other place like this in the world. Up to Leh and 150km beyond, the terrain is extremely rugged with narrow valleys and surrounding hill ranges varying from 15,000 feet to 23,000 feet. Beyond this the valleys become broader, the base height rises to 15,000 feet and the surrounding hills and ranges become more gradual and only 3,000 feet higher than the valleys. After reconnaissance, the hill features can be negotiated by wheeled vehicles and for tracked vehicles it is a cake-walk. In fact, Major Shaitan Singh, PVC, had constructed a jeep-able track from his base at Tara Post (named after his wife) at 15,000 feet to Rechin La (at 17,000 feet), which is about 1km from Rezang La. During his reconnaissance, Col Panag drove up this road. His was the first vehicle to do so since 1962! For the Army, terrain is the most important factor in battle. For the mechanised forces, this is even more true as they must negotiate the same with 41-tonne T-72M1s and 15-tonne BMP-2s. In Eastern Ladakh, the Regiment had to not only know the valleys, but also the surrounding mountain ranges to assist the infantry units during operations. The terrain is so vast that on a full reconnaissance trip, the vehicles logged 800km. All surrounding hill-features were climbed on foot. The Regiment also climbed all infantry posts and visited all relevant LAC areas. Helicopter reconnaissance was also undertaken. In three months, the Regiment was the master of the terrain.
The Ladakh Range is extremely rugged. One had only three roads across it via Khardung La, Chang La and along the Indus River at Loma. The mountain ranges (including the Ladakh Range) are aligned in the north-west to south-east direction and the rivers run from south-east to north-west between them. This gives a peculiar configuration to the valleys and the LAC. Thus, if the Ladakh Range is crossed from Demchok and Koyul area to enter the Hanle Valley, the entire Indus Valley east of Loma is bypassed. Consequently, a road was planned from Hanle to Koyul-Demchok via the Photi La, and it was very difficult to construct. During reconnaissance and from past data, it was discovered that 10km south-east of Photi La was another pass called Bozardin La, which was relatively gradual. Riding on a hunch, Col Panag explored this virgin area and took numerous ‘S’ loops to take his Nissan Jonga to the top of the pass. There was no other vehicle with him. Taking a risk of being stranded, he gradually lowered his Jonga towards Koyul Valley. After a four-hour struggle, he reached Koyul and was on the Indus Valley. No one—including the BRO and the Col’s superiors–believed this. He proved the point after a week by taking heavier vehicles over it. Eventually, the BRO took 10 years to construct the Photi La road, but cutting a road via Bozardin La took only one year. This, of course, happened years later, but in 1988, 1 MECH INF was the first to take vehicles from Hanle over the Ladakh Range into the Indus Valley—another first! The main defences were based on the Ladakh Range and its offshoots, and the Panggong Range, west of Panggong Tso Lake. This left nearly 100km of valleys and plateaus up to the LAC unmanned. These were selectively held to delay the enemy. The Chushul Sector was more compact and there, the main defences were between 5km to 8km from the LAC. The LAC ran along the Kailash Range, which is not held either by the Indian Army or the PLA. Both sides had plans to pre-empt the other to occupy the Kailash Range in the event of war. Any reader would logically question as to why the Indian Army was not manning the LAC right up to the front, like the LoC against Pakistan. Firstly, the LAC is not active. No shot has been fired in anger since 1967. Leaving aside approximately 10 areas of differing perceptions, there is no contest from China. The LAC is selectively manned by ITBP and at places, by regular troops. Secondly, the terrain configuration offers no defensible features in the valleys. Thirdly, if the entire area was to be manned like the LoC, the Indian Army would require four additional Mountain Divisions, which is not cost-effective. Fourthly, if the enemy occupies the valleys, he would be ‘shelled out’ by field/rocket artillery and the IAF. Lastly, the mechanised forces with their mobility are tailor-made for the role of dominating valleys. In 1988, the PLA did not have the strategic airlift to land medium battle tanks or ICVs in the vicinity of the LAC. The PLA formations were located in Central Tibet, 1,000km away. Depending upon the Indian Army’s strategy, this gave 1 MECH INF a window of opportunity to pre-emptively secure the areas on or across the LAC or conduct deeper offensive operations. Mechanised forces were tailor-made for this role. Ladakh thus remains India’s best bet for offensive operations as it is an extension of the Tibetan Plateau. The role of mechanised forces in offensive operations was, as part of overall offensive plans, to pre-emptively capture the tactical features/passes on or across the LAC. Also, as per the strategic situation in conjunction with special operations forces/ air-mobile Forces, the aim was to capture areas dominating the strategic Xinjiang-Tibet Road (NH-219), which runs parallel to the LAC, 100km to the East. This was based on the strategic situation as prevailing in 1988, which remains viable till today. More so, when the Indian Army has a Mountain Strike Corps and a much larger mechanised forces of up to a Combat Command (grouping based on an Armoured Brigade with one/two Armoured Regiments and one/two Mechanised Infantry Battalions). In addition, India has much higher capability for heliborne/airborne operations. The role in defensive operations was to dominate the valleys ahead of and around the main defences, denying the PLA any freedom of action to deploy his field artillery assets and for logistics build-up. As a result, the PLA would be forced to the higher ridges on either side of the valleys. This is a classic covering-force action. Since the distances are vast, it is a prerequisite for the enemy to seize tactical control of the valleys. Securing the tactical feature on and across the LAC is part of this role. Even the PLA’s mechanised forces spearheading his offensive are at a disadvantage as the valley funnel makes him a sitting duck for India’s mechanised forces and the IAF.
The offensive and defensive roles were validated in a series of war games. T-72M1s and BMP-2s were moved to the various areas to validate their performance. The BMP-2s also crossed the Panggong Tso Lake to validate the amphibious capability. Terrain similar to the operational area in the rear areas was utilised to conduct the field exercises. I MECH INF also took part in the exercises of the infantry formations. Standard operating procedures (SOP) for technical maintenance and preservation of the equipment in extreme cold temperatures were evolved. The Russia-origin T-72M1s and BMP-2s were tailor-made for cold temperatures as long as the correct procedures were followed. At extreme cold temperatures, special oils and lubricants have to be used. The equipment must be stored in sheds during peacetime. Before starting the T-72M1s and BMP-2s, pre-heaters were used to raise the oil-pressure. If this was not done, the diesel engines would wear out (particularly accessories like the air-compressor). The ad hoc mechanised force was following the practice normal for wheeled vehicles of starting the engines every night for 1.5 hours to 2 hours, to prevent the oil and lubes and the coolant from congealing/freezing and keeping the batteries charged. While even in wheeled vehicles this is a wrong practice—tailor-made oils/coolants and batteries for sub-zero temperatures are available and pre-heaters thin the congealed oil—but for T-72M1s and BMP-2s, it was a disaster as engine life is measured in hours and not kilometres. Engine life of the 20 BMP-2s of the ad hoc force had been considerably reduced and a large number of compressors had packed up. Col Panag refused to accept the logic advanced and did a detailed study. He found that pre-heaters were not being used. In fact, drivers were not aware that they existed. Thus, the oil-pressure never reached the requisite levels and was not adequately thinned to pass through narrow tubes leading to the various components. Also, the basic starting method in T-72M1s and BMP-2s is the ‘air start’ or ‘air-cum-battery start’—the air stored in a cylinder fires the engine and in the latter case, there is also an electric spark. In emergencies, when the air-cylinder is empty, a battery start with fully charged batteries is undertaken. It was found that the air-bottles were leaking due to worn-out stoppers. The batteries at minus 20 degrees Celsius are reduced to 20% capability. Air-bottles are filled by the compressors when the engines are running. Hence, with empty air-bottles and weak batteries, the T-72M1s and BMP-2s would not start. Thus the night static-running was being undertaken to charge the batteries and fill up the air-bottles! In a nutshell, for the want of air-cylinder stoppers and charged batteries, the engines and other parts costing lakhs of Rupees were being run down. The issue was eventually resolved by simply repairing/replacing the air-cylinder stoppers to keep the air-bottle full and removing the batteries, which were kept in heated rooms on trickle charge, using generators. Also, the use of pre-heaters for 2 hours before a attempting a start was enforced. One faced no problem thereafter. All the equipment remained battleworthy. So strict Col Panag was on this issue that in winters, before a start was attempted, the driver had to personally confirm to him that the SOP had been followed! In end-1988, 1 MECH INF conducted its first field-firing and the performance of the T-72M1s and BMP-2s was validated with live fire and manoeuvre exercises on the ranges. All guns and machine guns were re-calibrated/zeroed for HAA area as they tend to fire higher. The first-generation Malyutka ATGMs of the BMP-1 ICVs posed a peculiar problem due to the altitude. Since it is manually guided, it tended to take off high into the sky. A drill was evolved to take a ‘down’ correction with the joystick to correct the same. Second-generation Konkurs ATGMs of the BMP-2, which have automatic guidance, posed no problem. The passive night-vision devices, which work on the principle of enhancing the ambient light, gave the Regiment double the distance due to higher ambient light in HAA even on moonless nights. This was a force-multiplier. The awesome firepower of the Combat Group—which consisted of 28 125mm 2A46 tank cannons, 42 73mm cannons of BMP-1s, 10 30mm cannons of BMP-2s, 104 12.7mm machine guns of the tanks and BMPs and 52 ATGM launchers apart from the infantry weapons of the Mechanised Battalion—was demonstrated to the Division. The firepower of the Combat Group was more than the combined firepower of the entire Division in terms of direct-firing weapons. This was done to inspire confidence in all troops. The crowning achievement was the test exercise attended by the GOC-in-C Northern Command, GOC XV Corps and GOC 3 Infantry Division, who was testing 1 MECH INF. The Regiment came out of the test exercise with flying colours. GOC-in-C Northern Command said: “The Combat Group has made history. The foundation for the employment of larger mechanised formations, which will give us the desired offensive capability, has been laid!” The Indian Army had to wait for another 28 years before the induction of Combat Command in 2016 to get the enhanced capability. Though the ideal eventual requirement is of two Combat Commands and two Motorised Infantry Divisions! Such a force would give India the “retributive capability” a major power should have.
Captain B H Liddell Hart, the famous military historia, had once said: “The only thing harder than getting a new idea into the military mind is to get the old one out.” Having stopped the static-run of medium battle tanks and ICVs in 1988, Col Panag next wrote a detailed SOP for maintenance and preservation of tanks and BMPs in HAA and sent it to all concerned, including a copy to all Mechanised Infantry Battalions and Armoured Regiments. In January 2000, Brig Panag was Brigade Commander in Batalik and came to know that the old practices had restarted. He spoke to the XV Corps Commander—who dug out his SOP—to stop it. In 2005, as Corps Commander, Lt Gen Panag visited Ladakh and found that the old practices had commenced again. Once again, he got it stopped. In 2007, when he became GOC-in-C Northern Command, to Lt Gen Panag’s horror he found that it had recommenced due to change of units and the SOP being buried under files. Once again, he got fresh SOPs written to enforce the same. In 2016, a Combat Command was inducted into Ladakh. During his visit to XIV Corps, a now retired Lt Gen Panag briefed the staff in detail.
Though the Indian Army had deployed 30 T-72Ms in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector in eastern Ladakh, bordering China. The field commanders thought such MBTs were of no use in the mountains as the PLA was then not even patrolling the disputed LAC. The MBTs were dismantled and moved to Leh, and flown to the mainland in IL-76MD ‘Gajraj’ transport aircraft. In mid-2009 a decision was taken to introduce six T-72CIA A-equipped Regiments (58 tanks per regiment, including reserves), equipped with 348 tanks. In addition, three new Mechanised Infantry Battalions with 180 BMP-2s were to be raised. Thus, the Ladakh-based XIV Corps was to be allocated an Armoured Brigade to cover the flat approaches from Tibet towards India’s crucial defences at Chushul. In addition, one Regiment was to be located on the flat, 17,000-feet-high Kerang Plateau in northern Sikkim. In 2014, HQ Northern Command started the hunt for a Brigade (army formation with close to 4,000 troops) which could be deployed at altitudes higher than 15,000 feet. It soon realised that the 81 Brigade, aka the Bakarwal Brigade, could be sent to the Daulat Beg Oldie sector with an Armoured Regiment. Combined, they could defend a possible armoured invasion by the PLA, launched through NH-218. IAF Boeing C-17A Globemaster-IIs took off with T-72CIAs from the Chandigarh air base. The C-17As, which can haul 77 tonnes each, were bound for Leh. The Hindon-based C-17As were used to send the tanks and ICVs to Leh, from where they were sent to Daulat Beg Oldie and other areas in eastern Ladakh. Around 100 T-72CIAs were sent for equipping the the 85 Armoured Regiment at Nyoma and 4 Horse at Thangtse. With these in Daulat Beg Oldie and the Depsang Plain, the Indian Army can now cross the Demchok Funnel (where the Indus River enters India from Tibet) and intercept NH-218 in case of hostilities. 81 Brigade is presently headquartered at Durbuk—14,000 feet above sea level—near Daulat Beg Oldie and en route to the disputed Panggong Tso Lake. Under 81 Brigade, three Infantry Battalions (with close to 900 troops each) have been deployed in the area. This is in addition to the 114 and 70 Brigades, which are part of the 3 Infantry Division. The Siachen Brigade was formerly under 3 Infantry Division. But, now the Division has been relieved of its responsibilities in the Siachen Glacier and has been asked to focus on the LAC with China. The Siachen Brigade is now under the Leh-based XIV Corps.

86 comments:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: Have yet again attempted to connect the dots concerning recent developments along the LAC. And here's a compilation of Sino-Indian faceoffs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pU-5GGOnN7U

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,

Was there any Indian territory annexed by PLA in 1962 war. Is there any territory of ours still in their control?

DAshu said...

Yes Sir, You are the BEST at separating the wheat from the chaff.
Now it is a simple race who reaches 1st to the desired strength of the air assets in numbers to decide the future outcome.
A big question mark on our planners? With CDS being in place this should not be an issue though.

I would like your input in the below strange (well unknown to me) scenario.
1st the US could not penalize the protector of OBL.
2nd they are now actively protecting, rather saving the Taliban from being indicted in the recent terror strikes in Afghanistan.
3rd now Taliban is issuing statements against India.

What exactly the US really want? Simple exit plan and washing away the dirty hand? what is the end game here?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VED: Haven't you heard about a poece of real-estate called AKSAI CHIN? Have added more details above and here's more:

In the event the Chinese did not cross their claim-line both in the East as well as in the West and withdrew unilaterally in the East thereby adding insult to injury. In the Western Sector since the Chinese aim was to capture territory up to their claim line to provide depth to Western Highway and preclude any Indian offensive across the Demchok funnel, no withdrawal by the Chinese took place except from features Maggar Hill, Gurung Hill and Rezang La.

https://usiofindia.org/publication/usi-journal/battle-of-eastern-ladakh-1962-sino-indian-conflict-2/

To DASHU: It is not the Afghan Taliban that's issuing anti-India statements. It is the GHQ in Rawalpindi that is both issuing & publicising such statements, like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42b6amUI4Jo

author said...

Saw a comparison of ins arihant with uss ohio on http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/05/indias-ins-arihant-ssbn-compared-to-us.html?m=1

Does the defence establishment have the aspiration and ambition to match those capabilities. If so when can we expect our navy to have such a vessel.

AMIT BISWAS said...

Who is buying these amidst corona crisis

https://twitter.com/Saab/status/1262307658146754560?s=20

Dushyant hardaha said...

Sir
CoAS is claming to aquare 100 AMCA
Do you think
India could develope 5th gen aircraft
When we are struggling with 3.5 gen LCA

Satya said...

This thread is very worrying. I remember reading reports of Chinese incursions 8-9 years ago and some of those said that with every every incursion India is losing territory. And that Chinese plan is to take territory inch by inch. I want to ask you, have we lost any territory to the Chinese in Ladakh (or elsewhere) AFTER 1962 war? Is the LAC still the same as it was after the conclusion of 1962 war?

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, what defence fortification, they are referring ?

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEKDLoOHzlnehvbs7A312XoUqFggEKg4IACoGCAoww7k_MMevCDDpywE?hl=en-IN&gl=IN&ceid=IN%3Aen

VSJ said...

Sir, despite all this, the primary concern has remained the same for me - a creeping invasion by China, one tract at a time. Not war or skirmishes.
What is the solution?
Imho More company level BOP for ITBP?
Furious resistance to any construction activity? So much land has been lost already.
Successive governments seem to not have their heads in the game.

114 SEF showered again, outside mkiA and MWF. Thankfully, timeline is 35 years. I am sure awe can afford to miss it. 35 years for 450 aircraft regardless seems too delayed even in normal circumstances for a force size of IAF.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/iaf-to-acquire-450-fighter-aircraft-in-future-says-air-force-chief-rks-bhadauria/593673

Have all the six armoured regiments formed? What armour do we deploy across other sectors against China other than Ladakh?

Thanks

Kapil said...

Prasun da,

1) What is the status of medium range maritime reconnaissance aircraft deal for IN? Should the Navy not go for more PI Neptunes instead?

2) Will IAF buy only 100 units of AMCA and MWF Tejas as stated by IAF Chief?

3) In training aircraft segment the IAF Chief mentioned HTT-40 but not Tejas SPORT. So will Tejas SPORT project be cancelled?

4) For 114 MMRCA deal he referred to recent increase in FDI in defense sector and also hinted at participation of private sector. Which aircraft is fav to win the deal according to you? Logically it should be Rafale. What do you think?

5) Is cost negotiation for Airbus C-295 deal steal on? Hope it is cancelled and more C-130 Super Hercules are procured.

6) IAF wanted at least 10 more C-17 Globemaster aircrafts but no orders were place. It's production has ended and restarting it is expensive proposition. Can India buy these from UAE and Qatar?

7) How good is the LCH compared to Chinese Z-10 and Turkish T-129 procured by Pakistan?

8) Jinnah Class corvette PN is procuring has US SAMs. Has US approved it's export to Pakistan? And also the engine for T-129?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

China Denies Its Citizens Entry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhEzJBuZ7n8

Nine Commentaries on CPC-2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nts6-MDaY0s

Maritime Security in the Bay of Bengal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fhs4bFJ2bV4

Stable Seas: Maritime Security in Bay of Bengal https://stableseas.org/publications/stable-seas-bay-bengal-maritime-security

Journey of Covid-19 in India https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08_G2_EK-Gw

India-Nepal Friction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJCGjUr-hHA

No Improvements in FATA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD19jjUapb4

To DASHU: As expected, this was nothing more than Pakistan-origin FAKE NEWS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgH3Xl7paMQ

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/afghan-govt-rejects-taliban-leader-s-remarks-about-india-s-negative-role/story-qq6W3KLv6pp7pN323ANvVP.html

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/kashmir-is-india-s-internal-matter-says-taliban-denies-plan-to-target-delhi/story-sOgG3yPsMenP4nZDKRbygL.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AUTHOR: The INS Arihant is built to a 3rd generation design, not 1st generation. That should be enough of an indicator of the inaccuracies of such an analysis.

To AMIT BISWAS: The Middle East, which is sponsoring the civil wars of North Africa.

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: What the IAF’s CAS has said is that the IAF requires 450 fighter aircraft for deployment on the northern and western frontiers of the country over the next 35 years. He also said: “This project (114 jets) is in the middle-weight and is in the Rafale class, in this issue, we will deal with it in the Make in India region, with an increase in FDI, with support to the private sector. I think in future this will bring in technology which is required to support the aviation sector. I think it is important to have another generation of aircraft in terms of capability, technology as we go along (sic).”

What this means is that he is equating the 114-aircraft reqmt with the Rafale, i.e. the IAF requires a total of 114 Rafales. This in turn will enable India’s public-/private-sector companies to become part of the global supplier chains of Dassault Aviation, THALES & SAFRAN/SNECMA Moteurs. And that was the reason why Vivek Lall folded-up Lockheed Martin’s F-21 Falcon Viper’s marketing efforts & went back to the US.

To SATYA: It has all been explained above in great detail, especially the land encroachments by China. But what is far more worrying is Nepal’s open support for China. It is dangerous because the only place where China can launch credible offensive land campaigns inside India is in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, but for that China will need access to land transportation corridors through Nepali Terai areas, especially in areas opposite Gorakhpur. Further complicating matters is the majority population of Nepal-origin inhabitants in Sikkim State, whose indi8genous Bhutia & Lepcha ethnic communities are now in a minority.

To SUMANTA NAG: You must be referring to this:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/china-accuses-indian-troops-of-trespass-in-galwan-valley-region-in-aksai-chin/story-1m7y4zoQAOPiiHwoDlqNKL.html

I have already uploaded above the slide showing the Galwan River & the Galwan Valley, which clearly shows the existemce there of ITBP & IA outposts. Since the PLA-BDR personnel are unable to acclimatise themselves & stay at such forbidding places permanently, China wants India to remove the ITBP & IA outposts from that area, which is an outrageous demand & expectation.

To VSJ: The only s0olution is LAC DOMINANCE through the following: 1) construction of all-weather roads for up to 50 metres away from one’s perception of the LACV. 2) Increasing the number of ALGs in both HP & Uttrarkhand. 3) Re-deploying the plains-based formations of the IA’s Central Command out to Uttarkhand & HP. 4) Procuring more CH-47Fs, Mi-17V-5s, Rudras, HAL-developed LUHs, & C-130J-30s. 5) Transferring the HQ of the XVII Corps from Panagarh in WB to HP. After all, it is now well-known that locating the XVII Corps in Panagarh was just a deception exercise for only a limited period of time.

The 114-aircraft reqmt now is for all intents & purposes the Rafale reqmt, i.e. 114 more Rafales to be procured to add to the 36 on order. Hence, it is no longer an SEF competition nor will any RFP go out. Instead, another G-to-G deal will be struck with France & that explains why Lockheed Martin’s Vivek Lall winded up his office & went back to the US.

There is no need to form any new armoured regiment. There are plenty of them already available in Rajasthan & they can easily be relocated to both Ladakh & Sikkim. Also, the 61st Cavalry is giving up its horses in favour of T-72CIA MBTs.

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

In which case, it's time for Nepal to be integrated into India. At least the southern Terai part, but preferably to sort Nepal out. It's only proactive action by the Govt, since the Nepalis do tend to breed in huge numbers & replace the other indigenous populations in the hills.

Can you give your opinion please? Nepal doesn't actually have the option to join PRC, unlike Pakistan as a satellite or an ally. India can't allow it nor are the logistics correct for Nepal. As the British would say - Simply not done, dear chap

AMIT BISWAS said...

After reading this i guess biggest liar in indian govt is indian army itself by giving false statement to public abt maintaining sanctity and security of LAC

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAPIL: 1) Common-sense demands that both the IN & ICGS opt for customised variants of the P-8I. No need for any Neptunes or Podeidons. 2) AMCA won’t happen, rest assured. 3) Tejas Sport is now meant only for export. It may change in future. 4) Already answered that above earlier today. 5) No. It’s not on & C-295s won’t be procured. 6) Boeing will restart C-17A production line in response to increasing demands in the near future. Even a civilian variant of the C-17A is under Boeing’s consideration. 8) The MILGEM-derived corvettes will have LY-80N MR-SAMs from China.

To KAUSTAV: If Nepal wants to play dirty, then India will reciprocate & the entire Terai region & probably some other areas bordering Bihar will secede & become part of India due to obvious reasons.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

First of all I show my gratitude to answer just not to me, but to all. Your Q and A series under any thread is highly informative. I'm certain secrataries from different ministries must be following your words in the blog to bring the required reformations.

I have another query on my mind:

As you said me in the last response, there is no concessions given to Mk1A, then certainly Tejas Mk1A aircraft will be able to thwart any J series fighters from China and it will boost the power of IAF. But is the development of Mk1A going in the right direction? Please share your views.

AMIT BISWAS said...

Why isn't india arm twisting nepal this time for such over zealous act beyond its capacity , last time we blocked trucks for madeshis

Buddha said...

Sir will you hinting Nepal may break apart .
Can you please illustrate what's really going on..
Has India mismanaged covid crisis as counting is going on

https://theprint.in/economy/modi-govts-rs-20-lakh-crore-stimulus-package-wont-give-immediate-boost-economists-say/424278/
Is India going to be in utter mess
Sir why India will not consider Tejas Sport version as lead in fighter ..Due to financial crisis or any other reason.
What will be perfect weapon combination for Tejas MKIA for utmost effective in Indian context.

Will more reforms are in pipe line in near future..
Decongestation of our mega cities is need of the hour...Will you give some light on how this could be done..
As usual you every article is classic.Hope top military planners should read and act accordingly..

just_curious said...

Prasun,
1- The CDS and the chiefs don't seem to be working in sync(case of CDS jumping the gun?). Recently the IN chief quickly came out stating the IN's desire to have a 3rd aircraft carrier when the CDS had on prev day said that it was not needed. ditto with MMRCA 2 & the IAF chief yesterday.. it's silly that such contradictory stmts have been coming from such high level decision makers..this also comes across as a point that, creating toothless positions like CDS with no decision making powers will always undermine the role & lead to each force pulling in its own direction instead of the same. If this is a case of the individual force tryng one-upmanship with a perception of staying relevant, its should be put down immediately & hard. It also brings the question as to whether all the forces have accepted the idea of integrated theater commands

2- I just did not get the IAF chief's math .. he desires @150 rafales .. what would they cost? can India afford them in such large quantites? will they remain relevant by the time all get inducted? ideally @90-100 should suffice(u too had mentioned the same range in your prev threads) & he mentions MWF req as "close to 100" same for AMCA(IAF chief still is making a case for them & it's already mentioned that the 1st tranche of @40 aircrafts will not be 5h gen std) . None sound economical to me .. should have been 150 mwf & @100 rafales . Now that dassault has taken over or planned to take over the reliance JV they had, will that make a big diff?
3-if no AMCA then what is the alternative? .. take turkey's place in the F 35 program . join Japan in developing a new 5th gen fighter or join one of the EU "6th" gen programs? & it should happen now!
4- is there a case for the IN to opt for turkish Anadolu/ HMS canberra / WASP or America class type multipurpose LHD's(4 to 5) with ability to carry fixed wing jets(F 35 B)? A new larger aircraft carrier can be looked into once INS vikramaditya completes its life by @ mid 2040's. repurposing the INS vikrant design should give us 40k T class LHD's with similar capabilities as the Wasp or America class. should bolster our presence & counter the chinese in the Indian ocean region in a much short time duration
5- Only 70 Htt 40's inspite of all the controversies on spares for the pilatus aircrafts?
6- what has got Oli's head turned inspite of rapprochement with India in recent years? Who will the gurkha community side with given their long standing participation in the Indian army.. another change of nepalese govt needed? whatever happened to that Prachanda guy he'z gone mute
7- China ready of investigation on covid origins? guess they are confident that they have covered it well.. Notable point was that Russia was not one of the countries agreeing to the draft asking for independent inquiry in covid origins
8- NUH should ideally be Dhruv's with kits from AVX/L3 similar to the OH58 ones they had offered to the US army with foldable blades offcourse..

just_curious said...

Prasun ,
about the basha dam.. can india stall it as per the indus treaty agreements or take it to any internation tribunal. if nothing what can India do to deter china..
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/china-funded-diamer-basha-dam-in-pok-is-an-ecological-disaster-in-making/articleshow/75773410.cms

Kaustav said...

Prasunda
Thanks a lot. Nepal knows the situation very well, unless of course PRC has sold it a vision of a broken up India and a greater Nepal.

With reference to what you have always explained & statements of CDS & IAF Chief, it seems logical that India will have the following over next 20 years
40LCA Mk1 + 83 LCA MK1A, about 200 MWF (instead of 100 LCA Mk2 & 100 AMCA) i.e. 18 Squadrons. Another 18 Squadrons of Su30MKI (upgraded to Super Sukhoi Standard). To this one could add the 6-8 Squadrons Rafales (36 MMRCA + additional under MRCA). The AMCA doesn't really have any role, except possibly as a 6thGen(?) Combat aircraft to avatar to replace the Su30MKI after 30 years. The existing Mig21, Mig23 Jaguars to be replaced by LCA Mk1A while the Jaguars/Mig29 & Mirage 2000 will be replaced by MWF. Hope combat UAV drones & wingman programs for the Jaguar Max make their appearance on the MWF too

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD: VMT. As you may be aware, a lot of the features to be found on the Tejas Mk.1A have also made their way on to the Tejas Mk.1 SP-21 till SP-40. The Tejas Mk.1A will have enhanced self-protection & target engagement features with EL/M-2052 AESA-MMR & one will get a fuller picture of the capabilities of the Mk.1A only AFTER the projected two prototypes are subjected to airworthiness-related flight-testing regimes. But to say that the Mk.1A will be able to take on all J-series MRCAs of the PLAAF will not be accurate because at the end of the day, the Mk.1A will still be a L-MRCA, while those of the PLAAF will be M-MRCAs & H-MRCAs. Hence, just like the Rafale will be used along with Su-30MKIs, the Tejas Mk.1A too will be used in combination with the Rafales & Su-30MKIs & MiG-29UPGs.

To AMIT BISWAS: There’s no need to get perturbed about it. Let the pot keep on boiling for now & let the US take the lead in ramping up anti-China sentiments on a global scale. Very soon Nepal too will find its true space & standing in this manner.

To BUDDHA: I had predicted way back in late 2010 itself (after a remote-viewing session) that Nepal may be bifurcated into two parts (northern & southern) early in the following decade. About the economic stimulus package, this govt has got it all wrong & is putting the cart before the horse, as explained here by WB’s Finance Minister:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOg2eroKfoU&t=154s

The IAF HQ is afraid that if it commits to the LCA Sport as a LIFT now, this will then deny the IAF the funds reqd for the additional BTTs that are desperately reqd. But after the HTT-40s are procured, the IAF will realise that the direct operating costs of maintaining both PC-7 Mk.2s & HTT-40s (which have high content of imported materials) as BTTs will become back-breaking.

How can existing cities be decongested when populist politicking is the accepted national norm. Only exceptions are states like Kerala, Sikkim & some northeastern states & that’s why they have been the least affected by the pandemic. While on one hand the armed forces are equipped with state-of-the-art containerised mobile command-n-control centres, one is not able to see even a single such centre functioning as a crisis control-n-management centre in times of civilian emergencies. Why for example the NDRF have such centres that can be airlifted & deployed rapidly during national emergencies? Why can’t the acquisition & operationalisation of such centres be made mandatory for all states & UTs of India? Why have all states & UTs of India have since 1972 forgotten to conduct regular civil-defence exercises? These are but some of the questions that need to be raised in Parliament. One cannot just keep on muddling through each & every successive crisis.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1, 2 & 3) You must be referring to these 3 reports:

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/what-should-indias-joint-command-structure-look-like/article30934894.ece

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/we-hope-to-sign-the-deal-for-83-lca-mk1a-within-next-three-months-says-bhadauria/article31618828.ece

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/northern-theatre-command-with-china-should-have-navy-element-gen-rawat/article31601393.ece?utm_source=taboola

As you are probably well aware by now, Indians generally like to acquire all kinds of vocational degrees for professional specialisation, but ALMOST ALWAYS fail to apply the God-gifted SOUND COMMON-SENSE in every sphere of activity, most probably due to an as-yet unknown VIRUS. The CDS Gen Bipin Rawat is therefore no exception & that's why he has been putting the cart before the horse since Day-1 of his CDSship. What he should have done was to hold his horses & await the finalisation of the National Strategic Survey. And then, using that as his point-of-departure, his office should have unveilled a Vision Document in which the aspirations & plans of all three armed services should have been detailed in terms of joint warfighting & all other aspects of jointness. Instead, the CDS is doing entirely the opposite & making a global laughing stock of himself. In all other countries, the above-mentioned sequential events take place. Yet, in India it is always ASSUMED by those in power that only they are blessed with all-knowing wisdom. And the consequent negative repercussions are now for all of us to see, especially the utter lack of logistical planning in terms of both declaring the series of lockdowns in the last minute, & the unmitigated miseries of India's migrant populace.

4) An LPH with some foreign design consultancy can easily be designed by Cochin Shipyard Ltd. For larger aircraft carriers, the design is already available from BAE Systems. It can easily be equipped with E-MALS as a flat-top solution. I would rather opt for a proven design instead of one that subsequently has to be changed 8,000 times (as was the case with IAC-1)! 5) The engine, gearbox, propeller & cockpit avionics of the HTT-40 will all be imported. So much for ‘Make in India’.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

From your thread what I feel that China can take back its claimed territory inch by inch by transgressing into India. And our political leadership will keep on looking and saying kadi ninda karte hain!

But can India pause this slow incursion by China which China will win without fighting an actual war with India. It can take back from India what it demands.

Ant said...

Hi prasun sir, Is india has any deliberate military strategy to contain the fourth and fifth generation warfare, where pakistan and china are masters on it.Do you think that pakistan military is more maneuvouring vis via strategy compare to ours, since with several fold less wealth they are still making head aches. Can you explain the concept of IBG . Is it based on US BCT concept or evolved from several battles that the indian military still continues.

BENO said...

Sir,
1. If the 114 rafales ordered in one go under make in India the procurement cost would be too much to bear? Or the order will be in tranches?
2. Which 12 tonne nmrh do you think is a front-runner for indian navy?
3. With respect to the above thread apart from aksai chin has China gobbled up significant amount of Indian territory post 1962? Has the government and the army had anything to stop it?

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, thanks for your reply, from the map below it is quite clear that PRC's occupation of its claimed area in AKSAI CHIN as well as gobbling up of Indian territory has been gradually happened before the start of the 1962 border war (at least majority of the occupied territory existed prior that, i.e war). So, IMO, Chinese policy of grabbing land is still active, irrespective of political party being in power of India, a. therefore has any credible effective step been taken up to stop that, and can a settlement with the Chinese regarding the Akshai Chin area be achieved in future ?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Aksai_Chin_Sino-Indian_border_map.pn


b. Is procurement of FGFA is under consideration ? If yes, which has the potential of being selected ?

Thanks in advance

VSJ said...

Thanks for explaining da

The tragedy of mmrca 1-2/SEF is that it is designed to ensure that IAF not only does NOT add new state of art jets for ages but also lose existing strengh in the wait, while simultaneously drying funds for equally critical force multipliers like 2 ISTAR, 9 ELINT/COMJAM, more awacs, MRTT and super sukhoi etc.

This in turn means not only our conventional deterrence like post balakot skirmish functions sub optimally but we will be hard pressed for limited theater two front conflict across JK/L UT's as you and ex ACM have explained before. Nor can we exploit any sudden opportunity that may present itself in POK later. Currently both best friends are trying to needle India simultaneously.

At this rate news in 2030s will continue to be squadron shortage, fund shortage, gaps, budget not enough etc.

IAF knows what it needs, no doubt. But it continues to fail to account for it's two biggest enemies - budget and procurement process.
No one listening to CDS, reluctance to modify plans to suit latest situation (say more tejas mkIA, sukhoi, 5 netras, 2 extra rafales sq etc).
IAF really is in a scary situation. All the best to air warriors.

panic said...

Sir what is happening in Galwan valley?
Is it true that the Indian forces on patrol near Galwan valley discovers incursion of PLA and are putting up resistance???
Is our Defence weak in this sector? Army has sent in reinforcement.

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

a few questions

1. do you really think China will allow breakup of Nepal?

2. China has been creeping into Ladakh and Arunachal but has Indian Army returned the favor y creeng into China occupied territory and permanently claiming it, i remember MS Yadav during 2013 DBO incident had said as Def min in 1097 he ordered IA to setup camp in China occupied Asai Chin for 4 weeks as part of retaliation for a similar incident by the chinese in 1996/7

3. i think decision not to procure more pilatus, or engine for jaguar upgrade will haunt IAF forever?

4. Jordan's king Abdullah has threatened Israel if t annex west bank and jordan valley, this may result in whole region flaring up up, what do you thionk?

5. will china be made t pay for chinavirus and any chance it will result in its breakup?

6. a Chinese company has reclaimed sea in Maldives and may well replicate the South China sea paracel island trick, what do you think?

7. i still feel F21 has hope bcoz after mig 21/mirage 2000/Jaguar phase out by 2032 IAF will need more planes, your take?

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: The following will greatly help clarify matters about Nepal’s theatrics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDnjQ-Tr0ps

https://thewire.in/south-asia/nepal-india-lipulekh-china

https://theannapurnaexpress.com/news/the-hard-truth-behind-kalapani-2492

WRT homegrown MRCAs, an evolutionary developmental path always produces the best & least risky final solutions. Consequently, the Tejas Mk.1’s FOC-standard SP-series (20 in all) will be followed by 83 Mk.1A variants, followed by the MWF. Such an approach will not only ensure design maturity, but also rising proficiency=levels of the entire industrial eco-system. But attempting radical transformations like developing the TEDBF (twin-engined MWF) for very limited reqmts in terms of the numbers being sought, or attempting to develop a 5th-gen AMCA without first mastering 4-th-gen MWF developmental & production process will be a sure recipe for disaster & wasted financial resources.

In addition, it is sheer irrationality to even dream about licence-building 114 4th-generation MRFAs because: 1) no one in the world has as yet licence-built any 4th-gen MRCA due to the prohibitive costs of setting up a second production line outside that of the OEM’s country. 2) 114 units is too small a number to licence-build & conseuqnelt if attempted, the engine turbofan/gearbox & critical components like cockpit canopy transparencies, ejection seats etc etc will have to be imported off-the-shelf, as has been the case with HAL-built MiG-27Ms & Su-30MKIs. Consequently, no self-sufficiency nor fleet serviceability will be guaranteed.

And lastly, it is intellectually dishonest to claim that licenced-production will upgrade military-industrial infrastructure & generate home-grown industrial production expertise. Why so? Because setting up of a MiG-21 production line-related infrastructure in Nashik, Koraput, Korwa, Hyderabad etc etc did not result in all such facilities being used also for the licenced-production of MiG-27Ms & Su-30MKIs. For each aircraft-type, brand-new production infrastructure had to be built. Similarly, the Terjas production line cannot be used for licence-producing either Rafales or Su-57 FGFAs or AMCAs.

And here’s the IAF CAS’ interview that was broadcast yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTs_uWWdk7g

To ASD: I have uploaded additional maps above to illustrate the steady stream of encroachments that began in 1956.

To ANT: The steadily growing casualty figures of the PA in Balochistan serve as clear indicators of both Afghanistan’s & India’s abilities to engage in 5th-gen hybrid warfare. IBG is just like the BCT & is designed to be a modular concept that can be tailored to various types of threat scenarios.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BENO: 1) There will NEVER be ‘Make in India’ of any 4th-gen & 5th-gen MRCA of imported design. They all will have to be imported off-the-shelf as I have explained above. Consequently, they will have to be ordered in tranches. Since the SEF project designation has been dropped in favour of the MRFA designation, it is obvious that the MRFA is nothing else but the MMRCA, just like the same old wine in a new bottle. 2) The best option is the AW-101 from AgustaWestland. The other is the CH-148 Cyclone from Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky subsidiary. 3) That is already answered in the narrative above, along with supporting slides.

To SUMANTA NAG: 1) I had earlier uploaded the slides showing the various periods of land encroachments here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2014/09/india-prc-boundary-dispute-decoded.html

I’ve uploaded some of them again above. 2) The Su-57 FGFA is still in the developmental phase & hence its procurement is not being sought by the IAF.

To PANIC: There’s no resistance from either side since it is a faceoff like what had happened earlier in 2013 at Depsang & 2014 at Chumur. This time, the PLA BDR has pitched in 18 tents in an area that further to the east of where the IA & ITBP posts are located (refer to the slide above).

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) China is not interested in solidifying or breaking up Nepal. Instead, it is only interested in ensuring that Tibetans do not use western Nepal as the route for fleeing from TAR. 2) No, Indian long-range patrol policy is totally different & is totally wrong, since the GoI has been insisting since 2010 that the ITBP & IA have parallel presence in all the disputed pockets. Due to this policy of the UPA-2 govt, there’s no unity of command, since the ITBP in peacetimes takes orders from the Union MHA & the IA takes orders from the MoD. That was the great mistake committed by then PM Dr MMS. 4) According to the Balfour Declaration, what is today’s Jordan was meant to be the promised land of the Palestinians. But without explaining, the colonial Brits went back on their word & created the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan after WW-1. 5) Yes, or course. Because such events occue only once every 400 years or so, & China has between 1979 & now been responsible for five such viral outbreaks. And if not stopped, more will follow. 6) That’s why Vietnam too, like The Philippines, is now headed for the ICJ to seek a verdict. 7) I’d rather stick to procuring more MiG-29UPGs (with AESA-MMR) & Super Su-30MKIs & Tejas Mk.1As.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

When few years ago I was interacting with you through your earlier blog, once you criticized me for projecting the Chinese army as 7 feet tall; I felt quiet good with your confidence. But today I knew that to defeat India, you need to be 4 foot soldier. India will give away the land. Then we worship the martyrs. Bhagwan sadgati de is desh ko.

flanker143 said...

Prasun sir
I believe there are some major flaws with the Tejas mk1.

1- high drag due to design flaw(not following area ruLe) have only read about this. Please clarify if any such issue is really there.
2- low power to weight ratio
3- no spj and maws

For the Tejas Mk1A-
Can the weight be reduced by using next gen compact & lightweight avionics to achieve better power to weight ratio ?

Any possibility of increasing the thrust levels of f404 ?

Can the space savings allow the mk1 to have maws and spj instead of sub optimal solution of carring them on pylons thereby resulting in even more drag and reducing flight performance.?

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Corona and New World Order
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJGBVDlqWjI&list=PLvOs3_qSXjq3S38SkfOgAhsuo-n7isznB&index=13

BiII Gates and UN held simulated C0R0NAVIRUS Pandemic Conference in October of 2019.

How they know Corona will be a Pandemic in October 2019 itself.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/05/16/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake/

Now they try to cover & escape it is a software error in mathematical modeling.

So all are already pre-Programmed events.

Vaccination for de-population and RF Microchip in human body is the new world order.

Additional Story : Who Rigged The TWlN TOWERS...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99mLPseOQ4A&list=PLvOs3_qSXjq3S38SkfOgAhsuo-n7isznB&index=3

Before YouTube delete this videos please watch at least once.

Please comment.

Thanks & Regards
Senthil Kumar

BENO said...

Sir
1. With regarding to mcmv for navy, does elbit seagull usv fits the bill? Can it be considered as a worthy replacement to manned msmv vessel?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD: Kindly rest assured that China’s difficulties have only begun, as explained in great detail here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crkwF3R7zmk

Yesterday, China’s President was caught red-handed lying about the origins of the virus & when & how the virus’ genome was shared with the rest of the world. In addition, Huawei8 will no longer be able to offer 5 G solutions to the world BECAUSE it had placed all its hopes on obtaining the latest-generation microchips from the world’s largest manufacturer of such microchips, i.e. Taiwan. But now, with the US passing legislation to bar the export of such microchips & all other microprocessors to China, Huawei is staring at bankruptsy! So yes, the Chinese of Mainland China are not 9 feet tall as several in India ASSUME them to be. The cat is finally out of the bag.

Meanwhile, the exodus has begun:

German shoe brand walks out of China, sets foot in Agra

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/german-shoe-brand-walks-out-of-china-sets-foot-in-agra/articleshow/75838129.cms

To FLANKER143: Yes, those drawbacks would have been critical had the Tejas Mk.1 or Tejas Mk.1A relied on high power-to-weight ratio for close air combat. But today, with the availability of HMDS combined with all-aspect SRAAMs, high manoeuvrability is not most-sought-after any more. Pylong-mounted SPJ & MAWS sensors are already available from TERMA of Denmark for integration with all the SP-series Tejas Mk.1s & Tejas Mk.1As. All that is reqd is to procure them & integrate them.

To BENO: Even Seagull-type unmanned surface craft or mine-disposal underwater ROVs have to be controlled & guided from manned vessels. Hence, such craft cannot operate as standalone craft.

just_curious said...

Prasun,
Firstly,I would like to say, I very much appreciate the clarity of thought you put forth in your replies which bring great perspectives & insights.Keep up the good work. So here are a few more :)
1- what is OLI hoping to get by putting nepal @risk by antagnizing India
2- prosecution of RAW agent in germany for spying on khalistanis...how to deal with idiotic EU/gora countries with their misplaced ideas of human rights. Not that they are holier than thou, They play that card to suit their needs..most of the terrorists/criminals end up staying in the EU region knowing that they are safe there. Some other countries who play this game are Sweden, UK & Canada.
3- Can you share your analysis on the state of EU. They are coming apart(probably already have).China has made inroads into EU & already counts countries like Hungary, Italy as their clients. Hungary openly is siding with china on the covid issue says a lot. Many have agreed to join the OBOR. More would go to china with a begging bowl(baltic countries, greece & southern europe in general, who are the poorer cousins of the richer north). With such fast changing dynamics, we are still stuck with trying to do a FTA with them for decades. How to cover our backs in the EU & ensure no adverse outcomes for us in the future.
4- why has the left joined hands with the islamists across the world (demoocrats, labour, here, well we know etc).Point to be seen is that for decades political islam have honed the art of playing the victim card while being perpetrators of crime & get away with murder.they have also fine tuned the art of playing west against the east(sino-russ)-- Games which pakistan has been playing for years. Now turkey. The west is blinded by its own propaganda & imagination against the russians & have been destroying themselves and the rest of the world.Eg- Almost every major islamic terror orgs have had the west support them @some point. The rise of china to a point where they are now slicing up the west itself is a classic case of suicidal western policies.
5- Your replies to me & others confirm my fears that the defence leadership @the highest level is non existent or seriously dysfunctional @best. Blame squarely lies on the defence minster & his ministry for not giving a clear direction nor having any vision.
6- OFB unions up in arms against corporatization including RSS affiliated ones
7- A very good write up on tejas design evolution http://delhidefencereview.com/2019/02/22/tracking-the-tejas-the-design-evolution-of-an-indian-fighter-part-i/ ..
will it be too much of an ask to have the modifications ( wingtip ccm's, adding the 0.5 m plug behind cockpit, changes to tail plug) as later updates to mk1a as a part of midlife upgrades? hoping that the new advanced LRU's and other improvements planned for MWF help offset the increased weight..The article suggests it should have been feasible as all of these will also go into the MWF..

Buddha said...

Sir can you give a detailed roadmap of how Indian developed weapons system with necessary modification fit into Make in India segment in indian armed force and CAPF . A full comprehensive article with detail elaboration covering all three branches , coast guard and CAPF obviously in your free time
.
So that Indian planners and policy makers can get some necessary idea and road map for the next 15 years.

hoods007 said...

Hi Prasun

Since you have covered so extensively about high altitude warfare in the last 2 threads i have a question: with avg. heights of parts of tibet plateau bordering India being around 4000 mtr (ngari prefecture=4100mtr, nathula pass- 4300 mtr, north Sikkim-tibet border -4200-4500 mtr , demchok-4300 mtr) what significant load can Medium helicopter like MI-17, Chinook carry? wouldn't we be better off by sticking to ALH as the back bone and LUH as a light armed recon helicopter for a air mobile brigade. what usefull load excluding fuel can mi-17 and chinook carry at 4500 mtr?

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, thanks for your reply. Your latest thread has made us aware about the fact regarding ground reality.

BTW, What is KP Oli up to ? Now, after releasing official map, and vowing to get back its claimed territory, is he trying to redirect anguish of the people of his country against India, therefore again risking internal political feud in his country, it's his government's job to check Covid 19 pandemic in its territory. Already, Nepal has to deal with secessionist movement there in ? He is already blaming local political representative's of his country for Covid upsurge there by channeling people from India illegally. Kindly share your views regarding the below link : https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesnownews.com/amp/international/article/amid-strained-ties-nepal-pm-says-indian-virus-looks-more-lethal-than-chinese-italian/594739

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,

About the medium-lift helicopter requirement rather than going for a whole new design from HAL or a new design from any other manufacturer, TATA aerospace makes Sikorsky S-92 Helicopter cabins. IAF can simply ask Sikorsky to upgrade the existing facility and strat manufacturing S-92s and then IAF, IN and ICG can get their own modified versions.

Thanks & Regards,

Hardik Thanki

AniOne said...

Dear Prasunda,

In the past couple of days, India is now seeing more than 5000 COVID-19 cases per day. But we already are in 4th phase of shutdown. Economy is in shambles. With 38% projected contraction in US economy and similar projections for India and lower class migration crisis unfolding, there is no way we can keep the economy in shambles. The choice is increasing becoming clear, to select the lesser of the two devil i.e. open the economy and let the COVID-19 cases rise or keep the economy on a virtual shut down mode.

My simple question is how do you see the next 2 months unfolding in India and the world going forward.

Regards,

Ant said...

As you said, if the attack helecopters are useless in mountain areas, then from where forces will get the desired fire support. Is mobile artillery enough for such assaults or nlos missiles combines with armed hawk like platforms will do.

murthy said...

'Meanwhile, the exodus has begun:'

not quite right.

1. it is 110 crores investment // not a big deal, Between 2014 -2019 Chandra Babu Naidu spent 4000 crores for advertisements for his govt and in that 2600 crores went to his own caste channels and papers, that is india for you. in addition to that he spent 4 crores each year for Davos attendance ticket just to see Indian businessmen there and 10 crores to spl flight.agaian thats india for you. in this context, 110 crores? that's funny
2. it is a cheap shoe brand

but never the less it is no wonder big thing for UP/ Hindi belt, anything is better...seriously..

meanwhile in UK a mid sized town called cambridge has 2500 biotechnology companies... each based on high end research that aims to bring atleast one product that is of global importance.. thats is called knowledge based economy...

for delhi to kolkata belt... that is of high ask..

AMIT BISWAS said...

Isn't it time for india to disband all IA gorkha regiments to teach these bastards a lesson for lifetime

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) His calculations will go awry, rest assured, since he can’t change his country’s geography. 2) Has the verdict bgeen delivered in that case? 3) The situation will be reversed in the next 6 months as the BRI will come to a virtual halt due to lack of purchasing power of several EU member-states. 7) No fuselage plug-ins are possible in either the front, middle & rear portions as any such endeavour jeopardises the entire CoG of the total airframe. Hence, far easier to design & build a brand-new airframe like the MWF. Meanwhile, the IAF's CAS has had no other option but to go on an overdrive to refute some of the misconceptions voiced by the CDS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=finfJ0GYH9k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHIuFKUQ118

To HOODS007: At such altitudes, it is still possible to fly medium-lift & heavylift helicopters, albeit with reduced loads. Furthermore, the helicopters will have to fly pretty close to the surface, as shown here:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/rf/image_size_960x540/HT/p2/2020/05/20/Pictures/_604bc78c-9ab0-11ea-b5cf-22f71a9413fe.png

This in turn can make the helicopters vulnerable to ground-based, vertically-launched aqnti-helicopter mines, on which China has initiated some R & D activities.

To SUMANTHA NAG: here is one possible explanation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjA1XWtVZ9E

To HARDIK THANKI: LoLz! That’s like saying since an automobile workshop can take apart & re-assemble major portions of an automobile, the workshop can thereforte be expanded in scale to produce automobiles. Things don’t work that way, since a facility making only components & sub-sections of airframes costs far less than a complete final-integration facility. The differences are clearly visible here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tapic6p2k5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lN9T4JSa6LQ

In addition, TATA Aerospace & Defence makes only airframe sub-sections of the S-92. What about the helicopter’s engines, gearboxes & cockpit/mission avionics. Are any of them or their components made by anyone in India? Hence, better not get carried away by wild fantasies & whims.

To ANIONE: There’s no other option but to carry on while investing more in public health-care infrastructure. That alone will ensure that the risks are greatly mitigated & life returns to normalcy, just as it did after the 2003 SARS outbreak.

To ANT: The only viable solution is long-range rocket artillery (including NLOS-BSMs) fired from land-mobile MBRLs.

To MURTHY: You hae compared apples with oranges. A better comparative example is reqd for credible benchmarking purposes. An industrial facility cannot be compared to bio-medical infrastructure. A better option will be to compare Cambridge with Maharashtra’s Pimpri-Chinchwad area.

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Dada,

When will the likes of MOD and DRDO stop showing air frames as technology .. rather concentrate the on the content inside ,,, let the private industries take these content and make sure the manufacturing is industry level or user acceptable level,
I think they should stop the Duet program with NAL and merge both ADA and NAL and ask them to do research on the sensorS( fusion) and avionics and if possible come up with some ground breaking wing and airframe and controll related articles(demos) and research ,
Let HAL, and Private industries bother about manufacturing and improvisation


rad said...


Hoi prasun
is the report thatthe jaguars wont be rengined due to cuts?
the commie OLI seems always to arse licck the chinese as he will be bribed heavily. I dont understand why communism has such a large bas ein nepal when it is dying out all ove the free world. why sussenly the aggressive pose by china in it time of weakness?
diver attention/

Arun said...

Imran Khan's tweet a few hours ago "I am reiterating again that a false flag operation is imminent from India in order to divert world attention away from its ongoing genocide in IOJK."

For the 2nd time this week,he has tweeted about a so called "false flag operation".Security forces managed to foil their May 11 plans.But they should continue to be on high alert because it does seem as though Pakistan is about to carry out a terrorist attack anywhere in India.

After the 2016 Uri terrorist attack,Indian forces crosses the Loc and killed terrorists.After 2019 Pulwama,the Air Force did the same job but went inside Pakistan instead of PoK.The first time,Pakistan denied it.The 2nd time,they did acknowledge that we crossed but said that we had only killed a few trees and a crow.

If something bad happens(I hope not),I hope that India captures some territory.Even if it is just 1 village.The action needs to be something that they cannot deny.The perception of invincibility that the ISPR has built for the Pakistani public needs to be shattered.Sir,I really hope that the tactical offensive by India that you talked about a few days ago happens.

vineet kumar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Is is not true that China's superiority in MBRLs/NLOS-BSMs already gives them the ability to win a short sharp conflict in Ladakh should they choose to initiate it ?

Satyaki

Buddha said...

https://theprint.in/world/modi-govts-subtle-message-to-china-2-bjp-mps-attend-taiwan-presidents-swearing-in/426731/
Sir I feel it is welcome move by govt..

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/nepal-pm-oli-creating-tensions-to-deflect-attention-from-his-unpopularity-at-home-india/426270/
Sir if this is the reason then they have gone too far..
Now I will strongly hope bifurcation of Nepal and wish majority of it joins as indian state..

https://theprint.in/opinion/letter-from-pakistan/shahid-afridi-can-be-the-new-imran-khan-of-pakistan-he-has-what-it-takes/426058/
One more idiot will serve PA

Ant said...

Why lot of news are coming on daily basis from china border. At a time when world powers are going to corner them, are they planning something like border conflicts behind the screen inorder to divert attention from them or is it a pure pressure tactics to keep india at their own way. Do you think indias china policy is well prepared and implementing.Look like they ( china) not giving much attention to the upcoming probe regarding covid 19 and still continues their aggressive posture both at south china sea to western borders.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: Why blame the masses for the mistakes of the ruling elite? To be noted is the fact that Nepal is going against the tide of evolution, i.e. while the rest of the world has discarded communist ideology & rule, Nepal is embracing communist oligarchy. This is a self-defeating process & the masses of Nepal will within the next 6 months get rid of these communists, rest assured. India just needs to sit tight & roll with the punches now being hurled by Kathmandu.

To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: Everything is possible, PROVIDED sound common-sense is applied before the likes of AI etc etc. For example, since HUAWEI will no longer have access to the latest microchips from either the US or Taiwan, it cannot offer its 5 G cellular comms system anymore. And tyhis has opened the doors for the now-ongoing negotiations between India’s RELIANCE, plus OEMs from Japan & Taiwan to get together to come up with a world-beating 5 G cellular comms solution. Do read this:

https://theprint.in/opinion/5g-demand-anger-towards-china-has-given-india-chance/425001/

Government has issued Public Procurement (Preference to “Make in India’) Order 2017 vide Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) Notification No.P-45021/2/2017-B.E.-II dated 15.06.2017 (as amended on 29/05/2019) to encourage ‘Make in India’ and to promote manufacturing and production of goods and services in India. Under this order, Department of Defence Production (DDP), Ministry of Defence has so far notified 127 items where purchase preference is given to local suppliers as per PPP-MII 2017. In order to further encourage procurement from local suppliers, 26 items out of 127 already notified, have now been notified under clause 3(a) of the Public Procurement (Preference to Make in India) Order 2017 and henceforth, procuring entities shall procure these items only from local suppliers, irrespective of purchase value, provided that the local suppliers meet the Minimum Local Content (MLC) as prescribed for each item.

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1625509

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 re-engining is a minor project that can be revived anytime, say within the next 6 months. Regarding Nepal, do watch watch these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xtFIG0kLE0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJdIA6OLyHU&t=24s

Now watch the T-72CIAs in action in Gurudongmar, Sikkim:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyeZ7rdWAYM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbOy374YlPQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6p3jnowkKU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI81MD2mWGE (all older ERA Mk.1 tiles have been replaced with ERA Mk.2 tiles).

IA Field Artillery in Nathang Valley, Sikkim:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEq6YNsAppU

IA T-72CIAs in Eastern Ladakh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_F12kZcp2c

BRO Road-Building in Arunachal Pradesh (bailey bridges supplied by Kolkata-based GRSE):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRwCmBdLQIo

To ARUN: Pakistan scored a decisive self-goal earlier today by publishing a map that shows Undivided J & K As Part of India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnhMgYvHvlY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDXV-yEkWTg

To VINEET KUMAR: Kindly go ahead.

To ANUP: This colonial-era arrangement should have been done away with decades ago. Why have IAS officers designated as District Collectors? What have they to collect nowadays? During colonial rule, the DCs & District Labour Commissioners were tasked with the collection of taxes from local businesses & landlords. After independence, the DCs should have been re-labelled as District Development Officers. Again, a prime example of sound common-sense not being applied.

To SATYAKI: Not quite, because the PLA’s ISR capabilities are nowhere near to what’s reqd for delivering accurate rocket fire-assaults. Consequently, the PLAGF will not be able to stage decisive ground campaigns aimed at capturing enemy territory. At best, the PLAGF can cause attrition losses that will produce only a stalemate on the battlefield. Consequently, in terms of nett assessment, the PLAGF will not emerge as the victorious party.

Remo said...

Hi Prasun

I wanted to know what you think happened in Venezuela on the below posted link:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52592824
Venezuela: Trump denies role in bungled incursion

They are saying that the opposition hired the private military cont to overthrow the maduro government for $213 million.

What i feel was just it was just a false flag operation because for that amount of money, they could have raised hell in Venezuela and if usa was involved the operation would have more resources involved. But what peaks my doubt is that are that the Russians are there in Venezuela if i am not wrong and now the Iranians are providing them petrol So it could be small shadow war.

Please give me your inputs.

Regards

Remo


AMIT BISWAS said...

http://www.hisutton.com/USN_Diesel-Sub.html

Case being made for diesel electric subs in USN....btw what's the speed of nuclear submarine?? I mean DIESEL ELECTRIC subs are slow??

Pratap said...

Sir, i hope your prediction about 114 Rafales come true. 150 Rafales will change the game in the region. I also hope MoD will apply common sense and go for 6 upgraded Scorpenes instead of making a mess by issuing RFP for P-75I. In leau of these massive deals we can easily extract FGFA and Nuclear submarine technology from France.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Is the ERA MkII more like Kontakt-5 or relikt ?

Kritavarma

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANUP: Back on May 26, 2014 when the PM of the Tibetan Govt-in-Exile was invited for the Indian PM's swearing-in at Rashtrapati Bhavan, the Chumur incident followed in September of that year. So this latest 'virtual representation' has also invited some signalling from the other side. Such limited incidents occur from time to time, nothing to worry about.

To REMO: There are plenty of private mercenaries available today that do away with the need for false-flag operations & confer total plausible deniability.

To AMIT BISWAS: The higher the enrichment-level of uranium, the greater the speed. SSNs can attain speeds of more than 40 Knots, as the Soviet-era Project 705 Lira Titanium-hulled SSNs had attained.

To PRATAP: I would forego even the six additional Scorpene SSKs in favour of INS Arihant-derived SSNs, since they can now be built much quicker at a rate of 1 every 2 years.

To KRITAVARMA: Yes.

anish said...

Prasun Ji, I have a question.

What is the difference between a full fledged BPJ of the kind supplied by SMPP, like this one..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7hDFzLvoag

&, a plate carrier of the king shown here -

https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/50590576_2042886609127310_8926421781875523584_o-jpg.537166/

Does the SMPP offer more protection ?
if yes, then whats the point of wearing the lighter plate carrier, afterall, you will atleast expect it stop an AK round ?

If no, why order the bulkier SMPP ?

Thank you

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

More Relics from Ayodhya Excavation Site:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgDf4EznAzc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3AI0UE3U_A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjLnx-ZkQfI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2iX7diNtoQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COwYKqDSdm4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXtWqJ7EG5M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYXX5CY81jk

Must India’s Foreign Affairs Strategy Change? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtNQH17Nzic

Analysis of Developments in Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMQzYdA4g3o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nDwX5aTM5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuTnmB_o5ng

Kaustav said...

Prasunda
This worst case military scenario, by Pravin Sawhney has the highest probability & it's obvious no border settlement is possible either with Pak or PRC. Indian Forces shall have cause to regret the shortage of vertical lift capabilities against PRC as well as lack of infrastructure & roads on the LAC. Next decade could be disaster, unless India manages to clear Pakistan from POK as military interoperability of Pak/PRC might cause India to instead lose J&K/Ladakh
https://youtu.be/lZVyW_Nqebk

just_curious said...

Prasun,

is this development true? a response to rebutting F21 or a reward for gettnig talibs onboard?
http://idrw.org/pakistan-air-force-to-upgrade-f-16-fighter-jets-fleet-with-irst-lantirn-sniper-pods/#more-227840
if true, it shows uncle sam has not changed one bit

rad said...


hi prasun
why are the fools US , suddenly giving sniper pods for f-16 amid all this rubbish to pakist an . is there a quidpro?. does the sniper pod ahve a n irst mode as quoted?

Susan said...


Prasun Da,

This is video shot in 11/9/2019 at Pangong Lake.Watch from 0:49 to 1:05 the GPS coordinate is visible clearly.Why IA & ITBP are leaving early in video but Chinese are not leaving the area.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vdUaBbT0M_U

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

As someone who has to work with DRDO, will you please explain how DRDO's Licensing Agreement for Transfer of Technology (LATOT) to SMEs work?

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/drdo-covid-technology-transfer-for-msme-manufacturing-know-more-about-the-terms-conditions/1967656/

How does DRDO choose SMEs to whom they transfer the technology? Do they auction the technologies?

Regards,
VIKRAM

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Ajai Shukla claims that in Galwan valley, due to PLAGF intrusions, for the first time since 1999 is our territory in the hands of foreign troops. How true is this assertion?

Satyaki

anish said...

Prasun ji,

The Arjun MBT project was sanctioned in 1974, & it is only during the last 10-15 years the project has gained some momentum, and showed some good results...resulting in induction of 2 regiments, and 2 more to be ordered.

1) Why did the arjun project take so long to fructify, why so slow ?

2) I once read somewhere in your blog about the differences between arjun mk1a and arjun mk2. I can't find it now..could you please repost the differences again?

Please also answer my question about BPJs posted above.

Thank you

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: That analysis is riddled with factual errors. For instance, airpower can never produce the desired results at high altitudes, especially the dropping of air-to-ground ordnance. Secondly, maintenance of the LAC’s sanctity is directly related to one’s own perception of the LAC’s delineation on a map. Hence, if neither party agrees to a common map the delineates the LAC, none of the 2 parties can guarantee the LAC’s sanctity. Thirdly, China is in for far greater internal upheavel than anyone had imagined so far, especially on the domestic front & this in turn will lead to further violence within both TAR & Xinjiang. Already the pot has been stirred WRT the missing-in-action Panchem Lama. Hence, I for one will not be in any7 hurry to allow the China-Pakistan combine to have the cake & eat it as well, for I know that entities like Huawei & countries like Pakistan are now staring at bankruptsy.

To JUST_CURIOUS & RAD: It is FAKE NEWS.

To SUSAN: None of the 2 parties leave earlier than one another. They always take a few steps backwards & then wait, & then take more steps backwards until they disappear from each other’s view.

To VIKRAM GUHA: It is about IPR royalties. Nothing about ToT.

To SATYAKI: He is spreading FAKE NEWS, because there’s no way to tell whose territory it is, because none of the 2 countries has even exchanged maps showing their respective perceptions of what constitutes their territories. And that’s precisely the reason why China insists that it does not share any frontier with India in Ladakh, leave alone a border or boundary. When one has to get into the finer details, that’s the time the ‘desi bandalbaazes’ stand exposed.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

VMT. Could this standoff in Galwan valley lead to armed clashes like in 1967?

Satyaki

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Considering the present situation of COVID19 and assuming that there would be no vaccine available till atleast a year, How would this impact the budgetary allocation for defence now in current fiscal and next?

AMIT BISWAS said...

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2020/05/a-new-and-worrying-chapter-ladakh.html?m=1

This Bluffmaster report is worrying if indeed true

AMIT BISWAS said...

Ur proposal about SSN instead of SSK is pathbreaking...but planners in naval headquarters are listening??

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

If India can't give the PRC what it deserves i.e. give it's PLA a sound beating and/or eliminate them, then should be prepared to lose both territory & self-respect.

It's not just Ajai Shukla putting out these reports. Somebody wants to escalate matters.

Parvesh said...

https://tfipost.com/2020/05/our-survival-is-at-stake-now-chinese-telecom-giant-huawei-crumbles-after-us-ban-on-semiconductor-exports/

True prediction by you

Arun said...

Hello sir.In my opinion,the recent actions by China(in Sikkim a few days ago and in Ladakh now)should not be seen in isolation.They should be analyzed together with Pakistan's actions in Gilgit-Baltistan and also Imran Khan's tweets about a false flag operation by India.So what are China and Pakistan up to?Is China trying to warn India against trying any tactical offensive(that you talked about a few days ago) in PoK in response to a potential terror attack by Pakistan?Or is China itself planning a limited conflict in Ladakh?Or is this China's response to the increased road construction along the LAC and also in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim?Or is China using it as a pressure tactic against India with regards to Taiwan/South China Sea?How do you see this situation playing out in the coming days and months?


Kapil said...

Sir, I have some questions largely unrelated to India

1) Will Britain be able to afford Dreadnought class SSBNs in post corona world?

2) Why do small countries Luke UAE and Qatar need C-17 Globemasters?

3) What will happen to Putin's new submarines and aircrafts? It was already difficult to fund because of crash in oil prices now because of corona it will be even harder.

4) Will BAE systems continue to support the development of Turkish FGFA project despite rising Islamofascism under Erdogan?

5) Will Taiwan gain international recognition as a sovereign country? Will that be a trigger of possible invasion by PRC?

6) What is the intension behind the new security law PRC is imposing in HK?

7) Will the global support US is building against China be rolled back god forbid if Trump loses in November?

8) With depleted financial condition will UAE and KSA be able to fund Pakistan? What about China and IMF?

9) Will blacklisting happen in the next session of FATF?

Buddha said...

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-says-oli-damaging-nepals-cause-as-pm-moves-to-amend-constitution-to-revise-map/428152/
How should India deal this nuisance by Nepal.

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-says-oli-damaging-nepals-cause-as-pm-moves-to-amend-constitution-to-revise-map/428152/
Slowly heat is uprising..

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/army-deployed-in-cyclone-ravaged-bengal-for-restoration-work/articleshow/75921485.cms
Isn't it a poetic justice for Mamata since she even criticized routine drill of army in recent past year.

As the number of Covid is rising steadily it seems that India will be next to USA or even surpass them ..
What is your take..
How much financial and military clout and influence can China hold as seems that UK US and other developed countries uping the ante against china
How long it will take for the fall of dragon ..
Will big power go for slicing china into pieces in the coming decades..Tibet Hongkong others will be declared as free country..(just assumption on my part).

Do you see pakistan too breaking apart in the coming decade or next.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

What do you conclude from recent visit of COAS?

Anonymous said...

Sir likes of Saurav Jha and NDTV propagating the news that Indian soldiers were captured and returned during recent standoff in ladakh. Some also claiming that it is a total hogwash.
Could you please clear the air about this and enlighten us?

AMIT BISWAS said...

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indian-jawans-detained-later-released-by-china-in-ladakh-last-week-sources-2234082

With each passing day i am sure Indian army and govt are surely lying about the ongoing skirmishes, situation is more serious than what it is actually made out to be...going by the past holistory of army in kargil..difficult to believe them that they are jn control of situation..looks like chinese are trying to give india back in same way as india did in doklam


waiting for some clue from ur side...and god forbid hope this issue gives some sadbuddhi to doval to bring ITBP and BSF under army operational command across LAC and across LOC respectively

AMIT BISWAS said...

Aditya Raj Kaul (@AdityaRajKaul) Tweeted:
@d_extrovert @VishnuNDTV I spoke to a Minister and some sources within Army and ITBP. All denied it. But again you never know. There is certainly more than meets the eye and the scale of what’s happening on ground is bigger than what’s being reported. https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1264323655036796931?s=20

Something is terribly wrong it seems...please give some update

Millard Keyes said...

Donald Trump will not lose for the same reason Narendra Modi won't. There is NO alternative.