By November 1947, India had the the tools and historic treaties necessary for beginning the process of delineating and demarcating her territorial boundaries. These included the McMahon Line to the east, the map of the erstwhile princely State of Jammu & Kashmir (as defined by the Johnson-Ardagh Line of 1897) and the Treaty of Chushul of 1842 (according to which the Maharaja of J & K was referred to as Shriman Inder Mahinder Rajrajeswar Maharajadhiraj Shri
Hari Singhji, Jammu & Kashmir Naresh Tatha Tibbet adi Deshadhipati, meaning he was not just the ruler of J & K, but also
of the areas of eastern Ladakh, including Aksai Chin as well as the territory he
controlled inside Tibet such as Minser estate, which comprised a cluster of
villages located 296km deep inside Tibet at the foot of
the holy Mount Kailash on the bank of Manasarovar Lake). Yet, despite this, the first definitive map of India that was unveilled by India in 1954 showed a trunciated J & K (by not showing the territories inside Tibet and a unilateral redrawing of J & K’s northern borders by coming down south to the Karakoram mountain range, thereby losing the Trans-Karakoram Tract), instead of the Kuen Lun mountain range further north as defined by the Johnson-Ardagh Line.
Surprisingly, the latest political map of India issued last October perpetuates the same mistakes.
The historical background of the boundaries of J & K (inclusive of Ladakh) is given below.
Notwithstanding the political boundaries of India as prevailing in 1954, further confusion was caused by India when the Indian Army was instructed from 1959 onward to create a string of 77 manned forward posts, whose locations defined the furthest extent to which Indian administrative and military prevailed all over Ladakh (inclusive of Aksai Chin) and this in turn became what is today known as the Line of Actual Control, or LAC. Thus, as the following historical factoids reveal, the LAC was neither a perception nor a concept as has since been referred to by several former Indian military officials and former career diplomats since 1993. In fact, it has always been drawn on navigational maps issued to both the Indian Army and Indian Air Force since the late 1950s, but such maps have never been published or shown in the public domain for unknown reasons.
And between October and November 1962, the LAC became a line drawn with the blood of martyred Indian Army soldiers (as the battle accounts below reveal) who not only fought to the last man in those 60 forward posts, but their mortal remains were also cremated on-site in those battlefields. Consequently, to refer to any violation of the LAC as a ‘transgression’ only serves to dishonour all those who made the supreme sacrifice for India by going way above and beyond their respective calls of duty.
Which now brings us to the PIB Statement issued on June 20, 2020, which raises additional questions.
(To Be Concluded)
178 comments:
Sir your view on this..
India changed the status quo of the disputed territory of Kalapani between Nepal and India without any consultations with Nepal. First, in 2019 November, India issued a new political map which included those territories. Nepal protested, but India officially responded by stating that the boundary is accurate and dismissed Nepal’s plea to sit for talks. Then, in May 2020, India suddenly inaugurated a new road section through the areas to the Tibet border at Lipulekh Pass. Nepalese were agitated but nevertheless asked India to resolve the matter through talks. However, such pleas fell on deaf ears, which prompted Nepal to issue a new political map. Said new map goes further into “Indian territory,” which was not actively disputed, and has led the “special relation” to such a low that has further...-Anil Sigdel
To PSR/ANIL SIGDEL: This provides the best explanation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnF27uJIXos&t=19s
Hello sirji!
Last night I got the potential reason why you aren't on SM. We got veterans fighting over Twitter!Some old Pandora box got opened.
-A major ranked officer taking shots of a brigadier level officer.
-A colonel ranked officer calling someone's female family members some very inappropriate terms.(I bet you know him)
-a lt gen ranked officer targeting a whole community of based on their state of origin.
Testing times indeed.Never seen this much polarised veteran community.
Thanks sirji.
To PRAJJWAL DALAL: That happens when folks using their hearts & not brains for thinking matters through! Here are some interesting statistics:
A K Antony, the then Defence Minister, conceded in Parliament in 2013 that we have lost the infrastructure race with China. It was in this era, that the serving army chiefs repeatedly pointed out how our armed forces were facing shortfall of critical ammunition and border infrastructure woes to counter enemies. The policy paralysis was reversed following the regime change in 2014 and this changed decades of drift in India’s policy towards China by bridging the infrastructure gaps in border areas by constructing roads and bridges with faster pace. It was PM Modi who dared China on several fronts and foiled its bids in Doklam, stopped RCEP, and strongly opposed Chinese dream project OBOR. The genesis of the building up of faster strategic infrastructure can be traced back to 2014, when the Modi government gave it a big push. One of the first decision of the government was to issue a general approval in July 2014 for the creation of road network by Border Roads Organisation (BRO) within 100km of aerial distance from LAC. This general approval ensured that requirement of prior central government and other bureaucratic process were done away with. Subsequently, this exception has been extended to all border security related infrastructure such as border outposts, floodlights, fencing etc, and all projects executed by the CAPF organisations of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs. This was in stark contrast to the approach taken by the UPA government where blocking of such sensitive infrastructure projects under various reasons was the norm. Often the delays were due to flip-flops on environmental clearances. Similarly, the Modi government delegated powers to DG, BRO, clearing the way for construction of 66 operationally critical border roads. Earlier, every approval came from the Ministry of Defence. These powers were subsequently delegated to officers up to Chief Engineer-level in BRO. The government also took crucial steps like the procurement of modern construction methods & processes on a massive scale during 2017-2020. It also enhanced airlift of construction equipment and material from 2017 onwards, often using Mi-26Ts and CH-47s. The proactive shift in the policymaking resulted in massive infrastructure creation. According to BRO statistics, between 2008 and 2017, the formation cutting of about 230km of roads were done annually, but this has now been increased to 470km per year between 2017 and 2020 along the LAC. Similarly, between 2008 and 2017, the speed of surfacing of roads was 170km per year, but it has been increased to 380km per year between 2017 and 2020. Only one tunnel was constructed between 2008 and 2014, while six tunnels have been made during 2014 to 2020. The construction of another 19 tunnels is also under progress. During 2008 to 2014, 7,270 metres long bridges were built, while 14,450 metres of bridges were built between 2014 and 2020. In the period between 2008 and 2014, roads of 3,610km were constructed on the border while 4,764km of roads were built between 2014 and 2020. For about five decades after 1962 war, the construction of these roads which were neglected has now been taken care of and it has been constructed in record period of time along the LAC. Undoubtedly, India’s push to build and upgrade infrastructure along the LAC is behind China’s aggression and recent border skirmishes.
The most recent confrontations have taken place in four main points along the LAC: Panggong Lake, the Galwan River-Valley, the Hot Springs/Gogra area along the Ladakh border, and near Naku La in Sikkim. The PLA Army has three border-defence companies based close to the areas in question in Aksai Chin. Two are drawn from the 362nd Border Regiment (Unit 32160) and are located at Fort Khurnak on the north bank of Panggong Tso Lake and at Spanggur Tso Lake to the south. The third is located at the Kongka La Pass near the Indian post at Gogra/Hot Springs, and belongs to the 363rd Border Regiment (Unit 69316). There is also a patrol boat squadron on Panggong Tso Lake itself. At establishment, these units would amount to around 600 personnel. Under the circumstances, it is probable that additional forces-–drawn from one or both of their parent Border Defence Regiments’ operational reserves–-have also been deployed to the area, raising the total PLA border forces in the area to 1,500 personnel. In addition to the border forces, the PLA Army has mobilised additional conventional combat forces from the 6th Mechanised Division. This formation is based far to the northwest, on the southern boundary of the Taklamakan Desert, but constitutes the Southern Xinjiang Military District’s primary operational reserve. In the Doklam standoff of 2017, PLA Army force dispositions seemed to follow a similar pattern, with border forces on the frontline, but with regular manoeuvre formations deployed further back as a reserve. By the end of May, companies of main battle tanks and batteries of towed artillery had been deployed at existing Chinese positions north and east of Gogra.
Cont'd below...
This combination of heavy armour and towed artillery is now quite rare in the PLA Army following its latest reorganisation–-but is consistent with the known equipment holdings of the 6th Mechanised Division, as well as the three other Divisions in the Xinjiang Military District. In the Galwan River-Valley sector, a very small PLA deployment at Patrolling Point 14 (PP-14) had been withdrawn by the end of May, with the main PLA camp then established 3km further back in territory China already occupied. There is little indication that this detachment is equipped with armour or artillery, and the planned Chinese road along the valley remains unfinished, complicating the PLA’s ability to maintain a more substantial presence in this area for now. During de-escalation activities near PP-14 on the night of June 15, however, a confrontation occurred between Indian and PLA troops. Although no shots were reportedly fired, a physical fight eventually resulted in multiple fatalities on both sides, with the harsh climactic conditions and freezing temperatures gravely exacerbating the troops’ injuries. The situation along the northern banks of Panggong Tso Lake is different and at present seems to be the most challenging barrier to a successful conclusion of the de-escalation talks. From early May, China has placed more forces into the disputed area between Finger-4 and Finger-8. These additional troops have blocked the path from Finger-2 to Finger-8, and have also ‘dug up a moat-like construction with troop build-up to prevent India from patrolling further’ between Fingers-3 and-4. This apparent attempt to solidify PLA control over the disputed area now seems to be the key point of contention between the two sides. Overall, by late May, China had 1,500 personnel in the immediate vicinity of the LAC, with around 5,000 more diverted to the region in support. In response to the initial clashes, India has reinforced the Indo-Tibetan Border Police and rotational Army units in its forward positions along the LAC with additional personnel from the 3rd Infantry Division. Elements of the Division’s 81st Mountain Brigade and 114th Infantry Brigade have been brought forward from their regular cantonments in the valley between Durbuk and Tangtse, with additional units being brought into theatre to replace these mobilised forces as an operational reserve.
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2020/06/china-india-border
China has already lost the perception battle on the IW front & hence such moves aimed at saving the ruling communist regime from losing face:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3wzHqw5zNI&t=1s
Meanwhile, just like in Doklam in 2017, the PLA-BDR units are being rotated from the standoff areas once every fortnight, thereby highlighting the severe acclimatisation problems being encountered. This also prevents a unit from familiarising itself with the surrounding terrain of operations, which in turn greatly inhibits its ability to conduct any offensive campaigns.
And since June 20, the IN's P-8Is have been pressed into service to monitor a growing build-up of PLA-BDR & PLAGF forces opposite eastern Himachal Pradesh in this area:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cEBEEFjLK3E/XvAkYklgTqI/AAAAAAAATp0/A-plmlcuSBQA6k7nx7AHhdLEDv5PGLZpgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/EHP.jpg
Ground reports on force build-ups in eastern Himachal Pradesh & northern Uttarakhand:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiSpUXIiH40&t=39s
Looks like the PLAGF is anticipating an occupation of the Tholing Muth area by the IA, as I had predicted last week.
Prasunda,
1) How true are reports of 40 J-10 now being put up in Skardu ?
2) What about reports of PLA elements in Nepali uniform bulding roads in Nepal in the area adjoining Lipulekh ?
3) In one of his videos, Gen. Panag talks of a very large asymmetry in conventional missiles in PLAs favour (if we lob 30, he says they can lob 1000). Does this asymmetry still hold?
4) Praveen Sawhney claims that PLA has now won a decisive strategic victory without firing a shot. Is'nt this kind of analysis exaggerated and mistaken ?
Satyaki
If the PLAGF now anticipates an occupation of Tholing Muth by the IA, does that mean that option is now ruled out ?
Kritavarma
Hello sir
1)I don't have much knowledge about defence matters but I do know that the best deterrent is to have a strong second strike capability.And I do know that to achieve that,we need a certain number of SSNs and SSBNs plus long range submarine launched missiles.By which year will we have the required number of SSNs,SSBNs and long range submarine launched missiles in order to achieve a strong and survivable second strike capability?
2)India is not the only country being needled by China.Taiwan(attempts to intrude into Taiwan's airspace),Japan(Chinese submarine came very close to a Japanese Island) and Australia(cyber attack by China) and Canada(two citizens detained for spying charges)were/are being needled.So the India standoff should probably not be seen in isolation.Could the reason for this simply be that they simply want to turn the attention of their citizens away from their mismanagement of the Coronavirus crisis and the economic crisis that is about to happen?This seems more likely to be the reason than any statement made or any infrastructure development since if that was the case,only India would have been needled.
3)Rajnath Singh will be in Russia for 3 days.The official reason given is that he will attend the WW2 victory parade.But he will surely do a lot more than that.He will probably finalize the deal for those Sukhois and MIGs.Any plan to procure more medium lift/heavy lift helicopters from Russia?
Prasun sir, I am not a warmonger but I'm hoping to see big militaryaction by IA inside Tibet to humiliate the PLA and destroy the 10 feet tall image of China that we have in our mind. And after that it's time to put Nepal in it's place. Also let's hope that urgent orders are placed for additional Chinooks, Apaches, C-130s and most importantly Rafale
Hi Prasun da,
1.How useful are the Apaches in picking and monitoring targets on Chinese sides with their rotor mounted MMW radar that given them over the horizon targeting capabilities ?
2. Isn't this a shame for IAF and IA that naval aircrafts like P8 have to conduct SAR missions on the land borders ?
3.China has hundreds of attach helos. India with just few Rudras and apaches will not be a match to them.in case war breaks out. Will the MI17v5 weponised versions able to.operate at such heights.
4. China has 3000 long supply lines. How it will protect it when just bombing a strategic bridge , tunnel , road etc. By India will stall them there itself ?
5. Why India not coming out and openly saying to dump nuclear first use policy against China? What's wrong with openly threatening Beijing with Agni 5 , locked and loaded on it ??
Prasunda,
What role and sensors have led to Naval P8I being pressed into service over himalayan frontier?
What is lacking with IAF for such role?
Regards,
VinodJ
https://youtu.be/5i6Z2K_XCsY
Here force editor is saying that
1) chinese used water flood ..
2) chinese captured indian soldiers and later on released them,
3)They utilised helicopters for recce ...
Is all this true ...Kindly shed some light on this
3)
The white spotless dhoti clad "honest to god" and "incorruptible" Mr. A. K. Antony and his systemic sabotage of preparedness of national security vis a vis ChinPak. Just amazed at the gall of the same party to create such a ruckus now.
Hi Prasunji,
1. As you said, we are using P-8Is for intelligence gathering around Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand. Does a submarine hunter can work as ELINT/SIGINT platform to track the movement of troops & vehicles ?
2. If Boeing 787 based P-8Is can be operated as ELINT/SIGINT platform, why don't we standardize these platforms for DRDO AWACS project as well ?
3. How many Indian Field Guns & Light Field Guns are in our service currently ?
4. Which artillery gun would replace these guns in the future ? Is it Kalyani 155/39 MGS or Garud 105 as shown in the below link ?
http://www.kalyanigroup.com/ArtillerySystems.asp
5. I watched a video posted by you in previous thread on how it is difficult to really boycott Chinese maal.
We can't even produce our own semiconductors. We don't have a decent Indian mobile & other electronic consumer goods manufacturer.
According to you, what steps are necessary to turn this tide in our favour ?
Hi Prasun,
There is an online news stating area of Nepal is occupied by China need your take on this here is the link
https://hindi.news24online.com/world/china-has-taken-over-the-rui-village-in-north-gorkha-of-nepal/20312/
Dear Prasun,
Whatever Modi government is doing will it be an alternative to project Falcon? I mean can the problem be mitigated to a large extent? Your view please.
Prasun Da, many thanks for the timely thread, first time in my life I came across the Map of the princely state of the Jammu and Kashmir, in a blog, and never has been enlightened vividly by anybody. Waiting for rest of the blog. Meanwhile,in view of the recent events, I like to request your views as follows :
A. With deepest respect to the Indian Army, and their bravery, in my opinion, For CCP, the PLA is nothing but an expendable commodity, to protect only the existence of that entity. Years of One party rule and tyranny and booming of wealth in the party itself, due to successful exploitation of Globalisation, rampant corruption, made CCP weaker,a well as it's security force, PLA weak from the core, battle phobic, surrounded by far determined adversaries, with highly skilled armed forces, forcing Xi to deter his neighbouring adversaries, by cunning moves, and avoiding war at same time, also in the backdrop of trade war, and Covid 19 fall out, Xi and his team as it seems running out of options very fast. So, for me, the PLA may blink first and commit any mistake in any of its borders ? Then it may be the beginning of CCP's nightmare situation. Please correct me, if I am wrong.
B. Also seems that Nepal cought in the middle of the crisis, and Oli has been taken for a ride by CCP, mimicking India's decision, it now started weather bulletin of the region of its dispute, and occasional agressive Anti India propaganda through its radio, meanwhile it seems that Nepal's days in its present geographical form is getting numbered, with Oli's getting highly unpopular for his inept handling of Covid 19 situation, to get India for dialogue, with point of Argument, in his sleeve, Oli has reached to point of no return. What's your take ?
C. Regarding non availability of MGS, can a quarter of the requirement may be procured in the form of CAESAR , for the stopgap measures, while continuing the development phase of OFB Dhanus MGS.
D. Rajnath Singh, is in Russia, what may be India's desire, and might be India's result ?
Please share your views on the above,
Thanks in advance.
1) Sir could early preparation by chinese prevent a break out and occupation of different territory by us? Of all contentions, capturing chumbi valley seems to give us the most benefits. Reduces conflict points, single frontage, remove side attacks on Bhutan or sikkim, more importantly depth to siliguri corridor, allows us to concentrate more army, ITBP and SSB into one area.
2) Any additional Sam units in tibet we will have to contend with (like s400 and HQ9 etc) beyond the one air defense brigade you have mentioned in previous article? One AD battlegroup seems to inadequate given the area and number of formations requiring their support.
3) rumours by propagandists of air detachment to POK at skardu, i think too far fetched, it has only ORP shelters visible, and Pakis cannot easily have j10 readily added into service.
4) Is there a larger gameplan here? Warning against any move towards POK as we have been signaling politically or capture another territory not in news at present like DBO or Arunanchal Pradesh?
5) Russians claimed October 2020 to start delivering S400 but since last year are claiming late 2021? Suspicious? They love money, they have nothing to lose here.
Didn't they hike tank ammo costs in 2012 when the famous 2 day stock left letter was leaked?
To SATYAKI: 1) Fake News. 2) Fake News. 3) No. 4) It is highly pre-mature. Only if the PLA refuses to budge from the area between Fingers 4 & 8 & stays there forever will he be proven right. Also, watch & absorb this:
Decoding the PLA Buildup: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpylyweNAmk
To KRITAVARMA: In what way? Tholing Muth can be approached from both Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand.
To ARUN: 1) Not for another decade. 2) Not quite. That is just another conspiracy theory. What the PLA is demonstrating is that since India believes the LAC is just a perception, therefore the PLA can always keep on changing its perception of the LAC since India has after 1962 never drawn a red-line to prevent the PLA from creeping westwards. And that’s precisely why I have been saying that for as long as Indian commentators (civil & mi;itary) claim the LAC to be a perception, India will always be at the receiving end. 3) No.
To BRADSHAW: 1) The AH-64Es can be used like that only for as long as they are flying inside Indian airspace. 2) Yes, but what else can the IAF do, since it is the DRDO that has been insisting that it can develop ISTR platforms & therefore there’s no need to import nine of therm. 3) Not true. China has less than 100 attack helicopters. 4) Highways like G-216 & G-219 can easily be interdicted by the IAF. 5) No responsible WMD-armed state will do something crazy like that.
To VINODJ: The P-8I has the Raytheon APY-10 radar with ISAR operating mode.
https://www.raytheonintelligenceandspace.com/capabilities/products/apy10
https://assets.shephardmedia.com/live/default/media/cache/images/images/article/AN-APY-10/f5edb666f7dded284264d44efd927675.jpg
To PIMPALE: 1) Not true. 2) Both sides captured each other’s soldiers, especially those who were wounded & both attented to the wounded with respect & dignity & both released the detained soldiers in a dignified manner, since such actions always play a vital role in psychological warfare & help acquire moral ascendancy. 4) Only VTOL UAVs, not helicopters.
To BLACK_RAVEN: What did & said back in 2013 is the very same thing that the present-day PM of India is saying. Here are A K Antony’s previous videos of September 2013:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1ChYfsT9-o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nJDr_Tzez4
To MG6357: 1 & 2) Not as ELINT/SIGINT platform (for which the EMB-145I AEW & CS platform has adequate sensors), but for ISTR or battlefield surveillance using the APY-10 radar’s ISAR operating mode. 3) Several hundreds. 4) All 105mm howitzers will be raplaced by 155mm howitzers. 5) Where there is a will, there will always be a way. What is lacking is the willpower.
The RAT: It is FAKE NEWS.
To ASD: LoLz! According to this Govt, the last of the strategic roads will be completed only in 2028.
To SUMANTHA NAG: China secretly cremated its fallen PLA warriors without any state honours:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dqC_IZWs-Q
Clash at Naku La, Sikkim: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH-ckbvrK00
Here is an excellent assessment of what’s wrong with India’s strategy WRT LAC:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/defending-a-historically-undefined-border-line-opinion/story-lwZvXdiZXQeZ4GCcKFRh1M.html
And yet another great explanation from Ret’d Lt Gen Rameshwar Roy on how past govts & the present-day govt did/continue to demoralise India’s armed forces by referring to the LAC as an overlapping perception:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWY2Xtgpq1s&t=14s
A native of Ladakh explaining how China has steadily gobbled up Indian land:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYSmJqyWwyQ&t=38s
https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/06/20/indias-submarines-make-strategic-move-to-dominate-in-indian-ocean/#3692b285604f
To VSJ: This will answer most of your questions:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpylyweNAmk
As will this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTur1Lz7SYQ&t=18s
Later today, I will explain through timelines the quantum of land lost to China during the reign of each successive Govt of India.
Who exploits the data generated by P8I sorties IAF or IA?? I mean does india has any such specific agency among armed forces who has the capability for recce analysis and sorting and conducting briefing about the outcomes...bcoz i believe instead of the information itself, more important is exploiting and analysis that info
Prsun Da,
Trump told few times about leaving WTO. What about US, India, Japan, Australia, Canada, UK..etc leaving WTO and forming another block to block China ?.
Any world bank related projects, we have to award the tender to the lowest quote. What about above mentioned countries creating similar organization to fund projects to non-chinese firms ?
Regards
John
Hello sir
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/iaf-moves-tanks-carriers-in-display-of-its-airlift-prowess/story-bGfmNCUSqkDTYNuH5fUAMN.html
The Indian Air Force conducted an exercise called Exercise Bahubali in December 2018.The IAF generally moves 3000 tonnes a month.But during this exercise,they moved 540 tonnes to Ladakh in just 6 hours.Some excerpts from this article:
“In a span of six hours, the Indian Air Force and the Indian Army moved enough number of tanks, men and spares deep inside Ladakh that can help change the shape of the battlefield,” said a senior defence ministry who is not authorised to speak to the media.“Rapid air mobility is a key component of modern warfare. This assumes greater significance in short and intense wars,” Air Marshall NJS Dhillon, senior air staff officer of Western Air Command was quoted saying in a press note issued by IAF later.
The article mentioned the tonnes moved in this exercise but not the number of soldiers.
I read that the IAF transported an entire brigade during the Meghna heli-lift in 1971.They flew more than a 100 sorties and used Mi-4s.The Mi-4 had a capacity of 14 but they were able to flow 23 on board each chopper.
So after taking all this into account,how many troops can the present number of helicopters and transport aircraft that we have transport in a short period of time?
Thanks for the video, interesting visuals of mountain warfare exercise.
1) How different is aerial combat training for naval pilots from IAF? Vikrant won't come till 2023 and we have mig29k sitting. Could we perhaps transfer a squadron of 18 fighters to be based with IAF at Gujarat for coastal and Maritime strike missions? Will create immense pressure in areas off kutchh, Paki EEZ and Sindh.
2) You once talked of limited theater high intensity two front war, what are the odds looking now?
Pakistan is hardly a rational actor.
https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2020/jun/23/ladakh-and-the-pakistan-connect-2160116.amp
3) Possible to send more pilots and ground crews to France for full combat training so that when first 4-6 rafales arrive, they are good to go instead of having to develop rulebooks and strategies later post arrival?
4) what are delivery status of new long range AAMs signed 2019 and barak8 etc?
Thanks
PrasunDa,
According to Economic Times, India is asking Russia to speed up the delivery of S-400 to India
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/rajnath-singhs-russia-visit-india-to-urge-russia-to-rush-delivery-of-s-400-system/articleshow/76501432.cms
1 Do you think Russia can deliver a few S-400 from its own inventory?
2 Will the US be able to deliver a few THAAD or PAC-3 from its own inventory?
3 Will the indigenously developed Advanced Air Defence (AAD)/Ashwin Ballistic Missile Interceptor be successful in destroying Chinese IRBMs ?
Thank You
To AMIT BISWAS: It is JAREC, i.e. Joint Air Reconnaissance Exploitation Cell. For airspace surveillance over valleys one does not require aerostat-mounted radars or AEW & CS platforms, but manportable radars like Aslesha & Bharani.
To UNKNOWN: The US has sufficient voting powers to prevent China from bidding in any ADB-/WB-/IMF-financed project. And both the US & Japan have recently created financial institutions for financing infrastructure development projects worldwide to counter China’s BRI.
To ARUN: The Meghna airlift was undertaken over 36 hours & that too after air supremacy had been achieved in East Pakistan. Here is the write-up:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/1971-air-war-battle-for-air-supremacy/2/
Today, the same tasking needs to be done within 4 hours, for which at least 60 CH-47F Chinooks, 60 Mi-17V-5s, up to 50 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters & some 20 RSH aeroscout helicopters will be reqd. But their employment concept will have to be totally different from what India had done in the past. Because the defining factor is the nature of the climate and terrain. Topographically, different portions of the LAC vary substantially. Areas along the Indian side are not amenable to mechanised warfare, except certain parts of Ladakh and northern Sikkim. Owing to the high elevations of the Tibetan plateau, the PLAGF benefits from some commanding advantages—it overlooks many IA forward positions, rendering surveillance and artillery operations easier to execute—and are better acclimatised physiologically to high-altitude plateau warfare, albeit in limited numbers. On the other hand, the altitudes of TAR make high-tempo air campaigns more difficult: at very high altitudes turbofans take longer to ignite owing to lower air-density, and combat aircraft are constrained in terms of their overall payload capacity. The weather also can have an inordinate impact on the planning and conduct of military operations: in mountainous environments, meteorological conditions are highly unpredictable and can shift drastically within a few hours. Extreme cold, altitude, and weather affect almost every element of military equipment, ranging from artillery to helicopter rotors. Even precision-guided aerial munitions can undergo significant performance variations at very high altitudes. During the harsh winters, certain mountain passes can be inaccessible temporarily, while other regions, such as Aksai Chin, paradoxically can be rendered more passable for heavy vehicles by the presence of a thicker layer of frost and ice. In Arunachal Pradesh, some of the world’s heaviest quantities of rainfall regularly cause landslides, disrupting motorised traffic and troop movements.
The other major factor is the infrastructure disparity along the LAC. Whereas PLAGF troops can gain rapid access to most areas along the LAC, IA troops often have to trek several hours, if not days, to attain certain areas. The PLAGF also benefits from a much more robust, multi-layered communications architecture, having laid fibre-optic cabling and installed numerous small-aperture terminal satellite stations.
Cont’d below…
PLA’s war-planning traditionally has placed a heavy emphasis on pre-emptive military action as a means of seizing the initiative and throwing an adversary off balance. Considered under the overarching rubric of active defence, PLA operations in the Korean War of the early 1950s, the Sino-Indian War of 1962, and the Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979 all have been qualified as “self-defensive counter-attacks,” even though in each case it was Beijing that launched general hostilities. For Chinese thinkers, there is no clear conceptual firewall separating defensive grand strategies from offensive military tactics. To the contrary, pre-emptive military action is framed as an integral part of the Chinese concept of escalation management, or war control. Beijing’s military planning with regard to the Sino-Indian border is a reflection of this tradition, and of its broader thinking on “war-zone campaigns” and “winning informationised local wars.”
To counter this, the IA has settled on “offensive defence,” a “quid pro quo strategy,” and a “cross-border riposte strategy.” Following Clausewitz’s well-known dictum that “a swift and vigorous assumption of the offensive” is often the most “brilliant point in the defensive,” Indian military planners have adapted their concepts of operation to the natures of both the opponent and the topography. Mountainous terrain always favours the first mover & once the PLAGF seizes a position, it may be very difficult to dislodge them. Rather than expend much blood and treasure attempting to storm impregnable positions, the IA has no other choice but to pursue a strategy of HORIZONTAL ESCALATION and capture territory elsewhere, meaning if one cannot counter symmetrically, one can effectively counter by shifting the locus of the battlefield. The political compulsions of territorial defence make things very difficult for the IA, since India’s elected government will not tolerate losing even one inch of territory. This cannot be achieved without the IA seizing territorial chips for bargaining purposes elsewhere. The IA has to think of conflict termination. Raising of the MSC was part of a move to create a more offensive defence. If India’s sovereignty is weakened, she should have the ability to mount a riposte. If the PLA strikes at Tawang, the IA can provide a mechanised Indian response via Ladakh. In the past India had a dissuasive posture, solely focussed on static defence. Deterrence is now being rebalanced. Both Ladakh and northern Sikkim are considered good locations for mounting such a mechanised riposte, not only because they provide some of the few staging areas along the Indian side of the LAC conducive to mechanised warfare, but because they overlook the main axes of approach (the plateau of Aksai Chin and the Sora Funnel) and logistical lifelines, such as China’s G-219 Western Highway. In the event of conflict, India’s mechanised forces would sweep down from these mountain passes to conduct pincer movements behind advancing PLAGF formations, with the hope of breaking troop concentration. However, India’s mechanised counter-offensive would form only one component of a wider theater strategy. In addition to these movements, Indian airpower and rocket artillery power would be brought to bear on transport and communication nodes deep within TAR, with the goal of delaying or preventing the arrival of PLA reinforcements. The MSC, however, doesn’t come cheap. In April 2015, the MSC’s size was halved to approximately 35,000 troops for financial reasons, and that the formation budget was frozen at US$6.1 billion, significantly less than the originally sanctioned $13.8 billion.
Cont’d below…
For conventional forces to assail higher-altitude positions successfully, the IA must rely on a different yet complementary force, that is, a force that is decentralised, highly trained, and optimised for heliborne assault and the neutralisation of enemy positions located at higher vantage points. Such an air-mobile force can be made up of eight Battalions of special forces (Para SF), five Battalions (a brigade) of airborne paras, anxd the Brigade-strong Special Frontier Force (SFF), an elite unit of paratroopers trained in mountain warfare, sabotage, and demolition. Consequently, in the MSC’s conceptualized role, these air-mobile forces will operate in tandem as part of the IA’s area denial strategy. What is implied is, the Para SF & SFF will be inserted up to and beyond an operational depth to disrupt the build-up of PLAGF, isolate and invest critical vulnerable points and areas. These isolated vulnerable points will then be attacked via air-assaults through heli-borne and airborne forces like the Paras. It is important to keep in mind that the Tibetan plateau is a plane with little undulations, which allows for the application of both air-assault forces as well as air-assault mechanised forces, i.e. VERTICAL ENVELOPMENT.
To KIDDO: Don’t waste your precious time & bandwidth listening to such clowns.
To VSJ: 1) MiG-29Ks & their pilots are always operating from INS Vikramaditya on a rotational basis & hence all MiG-29Ks & their aircrews are certified for carrier air operations. 2) That’s why additional Excalibur 155mm projectiles are being ordered as emergency purchases. 3) France can only provide conversion training. Full combat training is possible only in India because no IAF squadron can provide air combat training until the Gwalior-based TACDE writes the combat manuals & that is because the Rafales will be operating along with Su-30MKIs & hence the combination tactics needs to be finalised by TACDE. And that’s precisely why it takes a minimum of 3 years for any IAF Sqn to be declared fully operational AFTER it converts to a new aircraft-type. 4) Such weapons are delivered within 18 months of contract signature.
To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) No, because the LR-SAMs reqd for keeping AEW & CS platforms at bay are of the latest type that has not even entered service with Russia. 2) Yes, the US has surplus Batteries of both available. 3) Yes.
Morons Undoing BRO's Hard Work in Uttarakhand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUBi4Ir7rE4
PLAGF Driving Skills in TAR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saiTsMfje8E
PLZ-45 Tracked SPHs in TAR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0W9KT3IMIo
Prasunda,
1) Is a high intensity two-front war likely at this point ? You said that PLAGF will not initiate a conflict in the near future.
2) How feasible are scienarios where China and Pak together attack and capture all of Ladakh ? As far as I can see, the terrain should allow IA in a defensive mode to achieve a stalemate under these circumstances.
Kritavarma
hi prasun
you mentioned that the s-400 deos not have a missile to knock of awacs? how is that when the there is 400km missile available ?. if not, is there a specalised missile for awacs?.
pse explain how a stable fighter like the mig 29 can be converted into mig -29 upg FBW fighter given that the center of lift should be forwardof teh CG normally in FBW fighters? how did they managed thatie moving the center of lift forward of the CG without any air frame and wing modification.?
Given the mig 29 was nearly equal to the f-16 in agility and AOA , does it mean it is better than the f-16 with care free FBW ?
is it possible to take out the chinese djibouti and gwadar facilities occupied by china in war ?
can china use the hambantota port for military use ? is it in the agreement ? if so then is it not fair game for the IAF or navy to take out hambantota? similarly what are the chance of ambhibious forces storming andamans in a commnado attack?
can submarines use the port ?. what is the actual use of the port given not much ships dock there? is srilankan ships docked there?
what is the tenure of a chinese conscript?
Dear prasunji,
1) How many t90 tanks does our army have currently?
2) How many t72 tanks do we have and and how many of them are upgraded ajeya versions?
3) Do our airbases along the China border like leh, srinagar, bareilly, tezpur and chabua have hardened shelters?
4) How does the iaf hope to defend its planes against Chinese conventional ballistic missiles in the absence of BMD?
5) In addition to civilian airfields and advanced landing grounds how many airstrips can iaf bring to bear against China in the event of a border conflict
6) India built up a numerical superiority of 12:1 in kargil to evict the pakis, how much numerical ratio superiority will China need to win a border war against us in ladakh?
7) Back in 2009, it was said that China could amass 450,000 troops along border but India could only manage 150,000. I don't think the author of that particular article took acclimatisation into account. But now that our infrastructure has improved, what are the max number of troops that both sides can muster along the LAC?
Thanks
Hello sir.Thank you very much for the detailed response.I have some questions from that and a couple of other questions as well.
1)"Areas along the Indian side are not amenable to mechanised warfare, except certain parts of Ladakh and northern Sikkim."Both Ladakh and northern Sikkim are considered good locations for mounting such a mechanised riposte, not only because they provide some of the few staging areas along the Indian side of the LAC conducive to mechanised warfare, but because they overlook the main axes of approach (the plateau of Aksai Chin and the Sora Funnel) and logistical lifelines, such as China’s G-219 Western Highway."
By certain parts of Ladakh and Northern Sikkim,are you referring to the Demchok sector and Chumbi Valley sir?
2)"Owing to the high elevations of the Tibetan plateau, the PLAGF benefits from some commanding advantages—it overlooks many IA forward positions, rendering surveillance and artillery operations easier to execute—and are better acclimatised physiologically to high-altitude plateau warfare, albeit in limited numbers. "
Would this advantage be nullified if the IA were to hypothetically capture the high ground on the Chinese side of the LaC?
3)"The other major factor is the infrastructure disparity along the LAC. Whereas PLAGF troops can gain rapid access to most areas along the LAC, IA troops often have to trek several hours, if not days, to attain certain areas. The PLAGF also benefits from a much more robust, multi-layered communications architecture, having laid fibre-optic cabling and installed numerous small-aperture terminal satellite stations."
Since the infrastructure building has picked up pace in the last 6 years,would it be correct to assume that this problem will be solved in another 7-8 years?
4)"PLA’s war-planning traditionally has placed a heavy emphasis on pre-emptive military action as a means of seizing the initiative and throwing an adversary off balance."
So they rely on the element of surprise and the fact that the mountainous terrain gives 1st mover advantage and makes it difficult for the second mover to dislodge the first mover.Can this problem be nullified by deployment of more troops along the LaC and matching the deployment at the LoC to prevent any sort of surprise?
5)You have said before that India has 10 mountain divisions vs just 3 acclimatized brigades of China.I was watching an episode of Strat News Global called decoding China's military buildup on Youtube yesterday(you shared that link here too) in which it was said that the attacker in mountain warfare needs a numerical superiority of 12:1 or 9:1 in some cases.The PLA does not seem to have those numbers.Can it be said that the PLA is not capable of capturing the whole of Ladakh due to this numerical superiority?
6)Lastly,VSJ asked this question :"You once talked of limited theater high intensity two front war, what are the odds looking now?Pakistan is hardly a rational actor.".And you replied by saying that it is why additional Excaliburs are being ordered.Can India win a high intensity limited war that is restricted to J&K and Ladakh against both China and Pakistan?
Prasun Da,
Indian navy P8I has Telephonics APS-143 OceanEye or Raytheon AN/APY-10 radar its been reported in this blog that indian navy P8I has Telephonics APS-143 OceanEye.
Prasunda,
After reading your exhaustive analysis, one question though...
Has IA factored the presence of innumerable tunnels inside the Chinese territory, of Aksai Chin, Tawang or Sikkim/Bhutan area, for hidden troop maneuver? For example attacking the advancing IA from behind in certain regions that Chinese think they are at a disadvantaged position. The idea of tunnels is a very favourite of communists in SE Asia. Is there any information regarding that?
Dear Prasun da,
Latest chatter on twitter based on recent satellite shows very different picture than what Govt want public to believe. My fear is that Modi Govt has capitulated before PLA and perhaps looking for fig leaf behind the charade of "disengagements".
Regards,
Pawan
Things getting hotter. Please keep up the good work.
1) Ajai Shukla says lateat Galawan camps are chinese on Indian side, Nitin Gokhale whom you shared and has been saner says those are Indian. Whom to believe?
2) google maps update now shows 31 jets at hotan!! Even though no HAS anywhere in any airfield. Meanwhile extra FIC launched into Pangong Lake by them alongside new boatsheds and dock.
Once again under pretext of talks.
What we need is teams of Marcos operating american SOCR boats to assualt their boat sheds and add larger 15 ton crafts than current 12 ton ones, equipped with 2*2 tube SANT atgm launchers and 40mm L70.
3) It is as if they want us to initiate attacks - never a good sign. Besides mentioning Weiqi, it calls for strategic misdirection and feint attacks and then attack in other theater. Can't believe they are leaving Sikkim and Arunanchal front relatively peaceful.
4) On other note, another year, another conflict, another emergency procurement temple run. This is despite CDS saying we have 30i for Pak and 10i for China.
Same story since Kargil, "we will fight with what we have" and equipment that gets delivered after wars.
No major make in India, no Plan B for perennial complaints like ammo and fighter jets in ages.
It is infuriating that a news mentioned we need 25 ammo types (not listed) critically that are both under imported and built locally category.
Meanwhile we pay 900 million for 6 helicopters but no order for 6 pinaka rgmt since 2017, or pars L3/helina atgm for 94 rudras in hand.
You were always right about solitaire babus and clueless mantris.
Hi Prasun,
One question always comes to mind shortage of combat aircrafts reason is Jaguars don't have new engines, Mig 23 gone along with Mig 27. That leaves us with some 300 odd Su30mki's plus Mirages, Mig 29s and Mig -21s with 2 fronts or say 3 fronts (just incase some other joins bandwagon of China). Would it not had been a option to keep atleast 3 squadrons of Mig 27 as backup then just scrap them? The reason I am saying it is bcoz new planes are taking time to join it would be better to maintain 3 backup squadrons till the time 3 new squadrons were available then scarp them in phase manner like 1 squadron per year in 3 yrs time. Whats your take on this? Thanks in advance.
Hello Prasun da,
Do have a look on the following link:
1.https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1275650269758570496?s=20
2.https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1275696367520841728
My queries are:
1. What are these structure like tent or something?
2.Who does these structures belong to IA or PLA? Also if PLA's then they are backstabbing in name of de-escalation, will this call for kinetic action against them here or somewhere?
3. Do you see a Nathu La like battle on the horizon?
4. Also how are we gonna match the Chinese Mobile SPH(truck mounted),Light Tanks,Attack Choppers or even Towed artillery in sufficient quantities or even similar platform to match them?
5. Will the Rudra attack chopper be deployed in this region or being deployed? And will they see any action during a conflict?
Soikot
To KRITAVARMA: 1) Not at all, unless India initiates it & risks being labelled as the aggressor. You will understand this after you read answer below to PAWAN. 2) Such a scenario existed way back in 1965 & it was Sheikh Abdullah who, after his release from captivity, travelled to Algiers to attend ther 2nd Afro-Asian Summit in April 1965 & there he was told by the visiting Pakistani delegation that later that year China & Pakistan would jointly attack India for forcing India to surrender J & K to Pakistan. The Sheikh of course informed both the CIA & India’s IB about it in April 1965 itself. The collusive plan called for Pakistan staging a sudden attack via Chammb & upon reaching Jammu & going northwards towards Srinagar, China would attack & conquer Sikkim & after achieving this, Pakistan & China were to jointly propose a territorial swap to India under which China would restore Sikkim’s independence (which was an Indian protectorate then) in return for India surrendering J & K for good. This account can now be found in the CIA’s declassified files. Hence, the two-front collusive threat has existed since 1965 & is nothing new.
To RAD: The anti-AEW & CS LR-SAM of the S-400 system will have ka-band active seeker & its first deliveries have been made only to Russia’s armed forces & India will be the second country to procure them. Just look at the MiG-29UPG’s airframe with the fuel tank on the aircraft’s spine behind the cockpit to find out how the airframe’s CG was changed. Hambantota Port like Gwadar is a deep-water port without any protective breakwaters & consequently such ports do not afford protection against submarines & hence such ports can never be used for the berthing of warships.
To PRAMODW: 1 & 2) Do read this: https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/11/fuelling-high-expectations-by.html 23) All air bases have HAS but there’s no one HAS design fits-all. Different HAS exist for housing aircraft of different dimensions. A HAS for MiG-21 Bison cannot house a Mirage-2000 or Su-30MKI. 4) PLARF’s conventionally armed TBMs are limited in number & are not too accurate & have CEPs of more than 150 metres. 5) Do watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMj9mTqhS6M&t=161s 6) The same. 7) The IA can muster 250,000 troops but the PLAGF will be hardpressed to muster 200,000.
To ARUN: 1) No. It is the Depsang Bulge in Ladakh & the area north of Sikkim. 2) Yes. 3) Yes, but the PLA’s plans call for initiating offensive land campaigns against India in Ladakh by 2024. 4) Yes & that’s why the ITBP is asking for its strength to be increased by 300%. 5) Yes. 6) From Ladakh, the IA can easily capture Baltistan but against China the IA will aim for a stalemate in a two-front scenario.
To UNKNOWN: Both types of radars are present on the P-8I for different functions. Do see these that I had uploaded on May 15, 2013:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wb3xzmK3QTE/UZKm7qrhdEI/AAAAAAAAFDA/LOFwRZztVqA/s1600/P-8I-1.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-POGjqlX_WPg/UZKnDsw5ylI/AAAAAAAAFDI/Cq0Rr95e6Mg/s1600/P-8I-2.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ElF8p1OuPlw/UZKm1CKJ7SI/AAAAAAAAFC4/7Bq57zMJF4U/s1600/P-8I+LRMR-ASW+aircraft.jpg
To JOYDEEP: No such tunnels exists nor are they reqd. Only small bands of terrorists make tunnels underneath fences along the WB with Pakistan. In addition, tunnels can’t be used to transport armoured vehicles or field artillery.
To VSJ: 1) It isn’t getting hotter at all, only getting more confused because the ‘desi bandalbaaz’ isn’t explaining matters properly. To him, Indian territory means the area which is claimed by India but is not in India’s physical possession on a 24/7 basis. My reply to PAWAN below will make matters much clearer. 2) If India were to do that, then she will be labelled as the aggressor. 3) That is not what China wants because China knows how untenable it will be for India to initiate any attack. Read my explanation to PAWAN below. And if you want to know what happened between the USSR & China back in 1969 over a piece of island territory, then watch this:
USSR’s Version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1n0Fch1_qs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5EYaAHNOXE
China’s Version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92rzOXqkqlA
To THE RAT: Well, it is now too late to reverse matters.
To SOIKOT: 1 & 2) They are stone SANGARs made by the IA & are not PLA-made. Indian TV channels are all showing the wrong interpretations. 3) On the horizon, yes, but not immediately. 4) The CH-47F/M-777 combination is there, as are the K-9 Vajra tracked SPHs. No attack helicopters have been deployed by the PLAGF. 5) They are deployed along the Siliguri Corridor & in Assam for Arunachal Pradesh.
To PAWAN: I reckon this is what you are referring to:
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1275774261521559557
As I had explained above, back in 1962 the IA had 77 forward posts but later on for unknown reasons this number came down to 65. One of them is PP-14, which is at 34 46 9.34 N, 78 12 47.19 E. Back in 1962, the IA’s forward post at Galwan River Valley was a further 46km south-eastwards at 34 38 01.5 N, 78 36 45.1 E. Only the MoD & IA can explain why India decided to scale back westwards after 1962.
Let us now come to the other areas of the on-going PLAGF buildup. One is at the Depsang Roundabout at 35 18 7.59 N, 78 0 45.17 E (check up all these locations on GoogleEarth) & the other is at the Trig Heights Roundaout east of Chip Chap River: 35 22 21.20 N, 78 2 19.72 E. In other words, the PLAGF has advanced deeper into India’s claim-line (where only seasonal patrols are conducted & no permanent IA/ITBP forward posts exist there) at Jeevan Nullah (PP-13) and there are on-going attempts to cross the ‘Bottleneck’ area on Raki Nullah (PP-12). In Galwan, at PP-15, which is about 25km south of PP-14, the PLA has entered about 2km inside the Indian claim-line of the LAC and has constructed two tracks. In addition, confrontation continues in the Hot Springs sector, which includes PP-17 (called the Gogra Heights), PP-18 and PP-19 (Kongka La)—all these again being India’s claim-lines that do not have 24/7 manned IA/ITBP forward posts. At Panggong Tso Lake, the PLA has gone 8km westwards from the Finger 8 area to Finger 4—again an area which is only an Indian claim-line & the IA/ITBP never had a permanent presence there. So what do all this indicate? That is the US$100 million question which no one is asking & whose answer clearly illustrates what China’s intentions were:
China’s single-point intention was to HUMILIATE India. But how? Simply by testing India’s responses since April 2013 to PLA-BDR patrol forays inside what India PERCEIVES to be her territories. Following this, once China became convinced that India would always label such forays as ‘transgressions’ & will never establish a permanent 24/7 presence in areas she claims to belong to her (because India had already reconciled herself to the notion of differing perceptions of the LAC by both sides), the PLAGF was authorised to advance & gobble up all such areas that India has traditionally claimed by now saying that since India never had a 24/7 presence in such areas, therefore the PLAGF has walked into them to establish a 24/7 presence in those areas & this explains why the PLAGF this time has gone on an overdrive with heavy construction equipment & prefabricated containerised shelters that can be installed on a permanent basis. At the same time, the PLAGF, by selectively forward-deploying its mechanised & artillery assets in limited numbers exactly along the LAC as claimed by China & in full view of everyone’s overhead recce satellites, is indicating that it has no intention of forcibly capturing territory by stealth or guile that is under India’s 24/7 control or of being the first to open fire to forcibly destroy/evict existing IA/ITBP forward posts along the LAC. After all, no army contemplating a surprise, pre-emptive attack will keep its warfighting assets on the ground for everyone to see. That’s why even camouflage netting has not been used by the deployed PLAGF forces.
Cont'd below...
It is obvious that Beijing’s Central Military Commission (CMC) had correctly assessed that India will find it almost impossible to insist on ownership of areas where only seasonal patrols are carried & where no permanent presence exists. And as a consequence of this, how can India have any grounds for insisting on the restoration of any kind of status quo ante as of April 2020? And so far, everything has gone exactly as per Beijing’s plan & the Govt of India has 100% fallen prey to China’s stratagem, especially after the Indian PM on June 20 stated that no territory under India’s control had fallen into anyone else’s hands. In other words, the Indian PM for all intents & purposes has accepted that India’s claim-lines are not worth enforcing & what now matters is where the IA/ITBP forward positions are now located & where their PLA counterparts located about 50/100 metres away eyeball-to-eyeball. In other words, there are no more any opposing perceptions of the LAC & from now on only one LAC prevails, i.e. the present-day permanent forward positions of the armies of both countries. That’s why India is now talking only about physical disengagement & not about de-escalation, with the latter meaning restoration of status quo ante. And of course the PLAGF will de-escalate, but not by restoring the status quo ante, but by withdrawing its warfighting assets ONLY AFTER it has built permanent structures within each & every area that India had claimed to be her’s.
So now the ball has been thrown into India’s court with the following questions:
1) Will India resort to military kinetic action to forcibly evict the PLAGF from all such areas stretching from Demchok in the south to Depsang in the north?
2) If yes, then in what kind of a timeframe? Two months from now? Six months from now?
3) If not, then will India continue to make noises only in various international fora against China?
4) Will India now be forced to accept the new LAC reality as the sole unitary definition of the LAC & agree to its delineation on a map & demarcation on the ground?
5) Will China choose to press for further gains by announcing to the world that since India had meekily agreed to accept the new LAC ground-realities, the Indian political map showing Aksai China as an integral part of India no longer carries any credibility?
6) And as an extension of this, will China then insist that the same principle applies to PoK & the Shaksgam Valley as well & hence the Indian map depicting PoK inclusive of Gilgit Baltistan lacks no demionstrable credibility?
If I were to be an Indian Member of Parliament, these are the questions I would now pose to the present-day Govt of India.
Cont'd below...
And BTW, in case you want to know why China has since 2009 being claiming that Ladakh isn't a part of India & hence the LAC’s length is only 2,000km-long, here is the answer:
Lama Stagsang Respa and the Hemis monastery form an important node of Himalayan Buddhist geopolitics—something that has been overlooked in India either due to political myopia pr deliberate policy neglect. The present Stagsang Respa has a signified name: Lada Awang Dan Zeng. He resides in Lhasa as a citizen of China and at some stage held the position of Vice President of the Chinese Buddhist Association’s Tibetan Branch. He remains the tallest spiritual leader leader of 75% of Ladakh’s population & is also the owner/keeper of the Hemis Monastery and the land this Monastery owns, which amounts to 45% of all of Ladakh’s irrigable land. So, all this land is owned by a Chinese citizen! Meanwhile, the other Tibetan Lamas spread throughout the 200-odd Monasteries that own the rest of Ladakhi land are also technically citizens of China. In other words, China’s penetration & cultivation of the Tibet-origin clergy now residing in Ladakh is 100% complete & all that they have to do now is produce their land-ownership records & Chinese Passports & lo-n-behold(!)—China through its citizens now residing in Ladakh can claim the whole of Ladakh to be under its legal ownership without even a fight!!! This is how long-term con-games are played, instead of the fly-by-night con-games that most Indians prefer.
Despite all the above, we are instead saddled with clueless Delhi-based armchair commentators lost within their delusional narratives:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDoR3rqhe9A&t=25s
Prasunda,
1) In your reply to Soikot you say that the structures visibe in the satellite pictures are IA's structures (the picture you linked in your reply to PAWAN is also of the same area). Do'nt the pink tents indicate they are PLA structures ? Also, that spur on PP 14 has a connection to the Chinese side by a track, but IA would have to ford the Galwan river to reach there.
2) You said the PLA would initiate a campaign against Ladakh by 2024. What is the most likely outcome of such a campaign ? My own reading is that given the terrain, it is likely to end in a stalemate.
3) What would be the consequences if we initiate kinetic action to evict PLA from where it has intruded ? A series of skirmishes ending in a stalemate ?
Satyaki
To PAWAN: And from all of the above, several US$1 billion questions arise:
1) What was Beijing's sought-after objective that compelled it to dump the outcomes of the Wuhan/Mammalapuram Summits into the sacrificial alter?
2) Despite expecting a severe backlash from India in the form of worsening bilateral diplomatic & economic ties, what caused Beijing to accord far greater priority to humiliating India at this point in time?
3) Does Beijing have a face-saving offer to make to India that enables it to hold on to its territorial gains while maintaining cordial bilateral relations with India in future? If yes, then what is the bait it is holding out for India?
4) Will India take the bait, fearing that there are too many skeletons in India's closet that will expose each & every political party of India as being complicit in turning a blind eye to Beijing's machinations since the 1980s regarding the Sino-India boundary issue?
5) Has India now permanently outsourced the playing of the Tibet Card to the US, which is also busy now developing & playing the Xinjiang & Taiwan cards? If yes, then will the 15th Dalai Lama be reincarnated in India or in the US or in Taiwan? Is this why the Karmapa was packed off to the US by India & he since then has been holding a Passport issued by the Dominican Republic?
Prasunda
All very interesting. India's cartographic illiteracy & woolly territorial nations, LAC perceptions are chickens coming home to roost. Perceptions can work both ways & in India's favour if India has the military strength AND ALLIES.
The only way out for India is to liberate as much of POK as it can & liberate Tibet while recovering Aksai Chin & keeping the areas of Mhari, Kailas Mansarovar with India . Obviously that also means recovery of Shaksgam valley & even Tareem Basin. Doesn't look like a limited war by any means. This needs coordinated attack by US, Taiwan & regime change for break up of PRC.
So logical fantasies (oxymoron) aside, I would like to draw your attention to specifically this tweet
https://twitter.com/StratNewsGlobal/status/1275809732251410433?s=19
https://twitter.com/StratNewsGlobal/status/1275805938520219648?s=19.
Basically saying that assets at PP14 is Indian as per Nitin Gokhale & Strat News Global. Whatever, the truth is, PRC isn't hiding it's intentions & is as usual better prepared to get the outcome it desires as you have been saying for many years now that PRC is the bigger power with initiative, gap has only increased since the 1980s from when India lost the military initiative in the Himalayas & the economy race in the world. The only way out is War with allied help. All other indications are loss of face, territory & accepting what PRC has planned for India as the bigger power.
So, Prasunda, CAN INDIA GO FOR IT ALL or will it take what PRC is offering & prepare to lose Kashmir & Ladakh within this decade? War is the only other option, LIMITED doesn't apply.
Dear Prasun da,
WoW! The details you shared are eyes opening. Now PLA action is making sense to me. Unlike India which went for Balakot attack without any end game in sight China has clear end game worked out. Seems Indian establishment will never learn art of war.
Perhaps a major aggression is incoming in next 15 to 30 days in Ladakh or elsewhere. Perhaps they are waiting for Monsoon to start which would make maintaining lines of communication on Indian side very difficult if not impossible.
Warm Regards,
Pawan
Why only political party, even armed forces and MOD have its own share of blame to this scenario
From the points which you have explained to Pawan it can be said that India is being ruled by the fools it seems that the thoughts of Winston Churchill are true to a great extent.These are the comments attributed to Winston Churchill “Power will go to the hands of rascals, rogues, freebooters; all Indian leaders will be of low calibre & men of straw. They will have sweet tongues and silly hearts. They will fight amongst themselves for power and India will be lost in political squabbles".
What's outcome of Russian visit of our Defence minister..
If Indian political and military class does not stand against china today then kashmir ladakh all we have to lose in very near future..
A country always has the option to wash out militarily the encroachers..So does India has..
But its political and military has the will power ..It's million dolar question...
To KAUSTAV: Liberating PoK & Shaksgam Valley won’t be a problem since the UNSC resolutions all clearly state what exactly is the undivided State of J & K, unlike the situation in eastern Ladakh & Aksai Chin which is perception-centric. Now, coming to the area of the IA-PLAGF clash, it is a triangular surface that can be seen here: 34 46 9.25 N, 78 12 47.38 E. And as the GoogleEarth imagery shows, the red line running through that area denotes China’s claim-line & clearly that triangular surface falls OUTSIDE China’s claim-line & therefore by default it is India-controlled surface. Now to the 2nd question, i.e. can India go for it all? Logically, it makes no sense to go for a desolate area like Aksai Chin, especially its easternmost portions. Instead, as part of an horizontal escalation manoeuvre achieved through vertical envelopment, India ought to capture & permanently keep areas that are contiguous to both eastern HP & northwestern Uttarakhand, which contain ancient structures like the Tholing Muth. At the same time, India can give it back to China in the same coin by harping on Ladakh UT’s ancient linkages with Xinjiang, as explained here:
https://medium.com/@subhashkak1/the-r%C4%81ma-story-and-sanskrit-in-ancient-xinjiang-4ce8636285ae
To PAWAN: The PLAGF buildup now underway is at 34 49 30.40 N, 78 54 2.66 E, well eastwards of where the IA & ITBP are presently perched.
To SATYAKI: 1) They are ‘demolished’ PLA structures. 2) The objective is to link up with PoK so that the course of the Indus River no longer stays within Indian control. And that’s because by 2025 Pakistan will become a water-scarce country. 3) Yes, but it will pay rich dividends as it will deny China a 100% victory in the eyes of the whole world & will enable India to make some minor tactical gains on the ground, which will tantamount to China losing face.
Good morning sir.
1)Would it be accurate to say that China's plan to link up with PoK within the next 4-5 years and prevent Pakistan from becoming a water scarce country is highly likely to fail since they neither have the number of acclimatized troops for mountain warfare nor are they battle hardened(haven't fought since 1979)?
2)A lot of discussion has happened about infrastructure building near the LaC.But what about the LoC?Does India have good connectivity near the LoC?
3)When I asked you a few days ago about why China raised a big hue and cry about the THAAD's deployment in South Korea,you said that it was because it will destroy China's ballistic missiles.Will a potential deployment of THAAD in India serve to greatly deter China?
4)Can this be termed as the event that ensures that India and US become full fledged allies?If this doesn't make India move closer to the US,then I do not know what will.
5)I have heard that there is a Beijing lobby in Moscow and also a New Delhi lobby.Which country is Russia closer to?India or China?
6)Do you foresee a time when China will make territorial claims in the Russian Far East?
Prasunda,
That their objective is seizing Ladakh and linking with PoK is clear. What is the likely outcome of the action they would initiate towards this end by 2024 ? Is'nt stalemate the most likely given the terrain, and given that they are unlikely to obtain air supremacy in the theatre ?
Satyaki
Dear Prasun,
w.r.t to your answer to Satyaki, I would like to say that for India it has high priority now to get back PoK. So China will lose strategy to play the water card. Do you agree with this view?
Prasun sir, I see you are advocating for IA action in Western Tibet's. area across HP and UK. Some questions regarding that
1) How can we do that when we don't claim that area as our own? Are we going to justify it based on Dogra conquest?
2) Is it even possible given China's military superiority and far better border infrastructure?
3) Even if we capture it,how would the world react to this because sadly Tibet is recognised as part of China and not occupied territory?
3) Yes, but it will pay rich dividends as it will deny China a 100% victory in the eyes of the whole world & will enable India to make some minor tactical gains on the ground, which will tantamount to China losing face.-- Sir, Is this even possible with the level of preparedness? If at all remotely possible, knowing this current Govt of India would have already done that and thumped 56-inch chest in public.
1) What was Beijing's sought-after objective that compelled it to dump the outcomes of the Wuhan/Mammalapuram Summits into the sacrificial alter?-- What more is it than already cleared by you to link PoK and control the rivers and cutting India to size?
2) Despite expecting a severe backlash from India in the form of worsening bilateral diplomatic & economic ties, what caused Beijing to accord far greater priority to humiliating India at this point in time?-- Please clarify the reason.
3) Does Beijing have a face-saving offer to make to India that enables it to hold on to its territorial gains while maintaining cordial bilateral relations with India in the future? If yes, then what is the bait it is holding out for India?-- Difficult to guess especially after seeing above question 2, Please explain if possible.
4) Will India take the bait, fearing that there are too many skeletons in India's closet that will expose each & every political party of India as being complicit in turning a blind eye to Beijing's machinations since the 1980s regarding the Sino-India boundary issue?-- Beggars cannot be choosers.
5) Has India now permanently outsourced the playing of the Tibet Card to the US, which is also busy now developing & playing the Xinjiang & Taiwan cards? If yes, then will the 15th Dalai Lama be reincarnated in India or in the US or in Taiwan? Is this why the Karmapa was packed off to the US by India & he since then has been holding a Passport issued by the Dominican Republic?-- It certainly looks like it.
======= So now the ball has been thrown into India’s court with the following questions:=======
6) Will India resort to military kinetic action to forcibly evict the PLAGF from all such areas stretching from Demchok in the south to Depsang in the north?
-- very unlikely given the level of defense preparedness
7) If yes, then in what kind of a timeframe? Two months from now? Six months from now?
-- never for sure as this stalemate will finish the Modi's political career, which is any way over now.
8) If not, then will India continue to make noises only in various international fora against China?
-- obvious choice
9) Will India now be forced to accept the new LAC reality as the sole unitary definition of the LAC & agree to its delineation on a map & demarcation on the ground?
-- very likely this is the outcome by publicly "rubbing the nose of the ground".
10) Will China choose to press for further gains by announcing to the world that since India had meekily agreed to accept the new LAC ground-realities, the Indian political map showing Aksai China as an integral part of India no longer carries any credibility?-- No doubt in this. The question is how soon.
11) And as an extension of this, will China then insist that the same principle applies to PoK & the Shaksgam Valley as well & hence the Indian map depicting PoK inclusive of Gilgit Baltistan lacks no demonstrable credibility?
-- No doubt in this. This seems is the reason behind all what dragon is doing.
Now am not a confident Indian. At least India should die fighting. Surrendering meekly should not be the case.Time to get sober and realistic.
To ARUN, SATYAKI, ASD, KAPIL & DASHU: Some of your queries have been answered here:
https://theprint.in/opinion/china-is-on-lac-to-tell-india-who-the-big-brother-is-not-to-gain-territory/448105/
Prasunda,
Clear assessment by Gen. Panag. That however does not touch upon how feasible it is for PLA to wrest Ladakh from us in a kinetic operation in the next few years. In one of his well reasoned recent interviews, Gen. Panag himself seems to rule such a possibility out, insisting that as a WMD armed state, we cannot be pushed beyond a point even if that were feasible for argument's sake. Would'nt terrain and the fact that PLA would need 12:1 superiority to dislodge us from heights ensure that such an operation is unfeasible ?
Satyaki
To SATYAKI: LoLz! No one can wrest & retain territory through military campaogns alone. That's why in 1965 before OP Grand Slam there was OP Gibraltar & in 1971 before the military campaign in East Pakistan there was mass/popular civilian uprising. Similarly, India is awaiting a similar insurrection in PoK, while China has been stoking the flames of religiosity in Ladakh since the past 20 years, as I had explained early this morning to PAWAN. So, wars are not just fought on the military front, but across diverse fronts & domains & this is what is called HYBRID WAR.
And finally, the IA has managed to secure the dominating ridgelines on the hillocks located at the mouth of the Galwan River-Valley, which psychologically will be extremely disconcerting for the PLA Construction Corps personnel below in the river-valley. Here's imagery confirmation:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbV6tbuU8Ac6KHn?format=png&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbV6uxDUYAEYapI?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbV6yi0UcAApW10?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbV7SKBU0AAr6zm?format=jpg&name=large
Dear Prasun,
w.r.t your response to Satyaki I am asking is China playing religiosity card to uprise Ladakhi to revolt against GoI. Do you think that China can persuade the Ladakhi to revolt against India despite knowing the limitations of China?
Hello sir
1)Some people on Twitter are suggesting the possibility that the PLAAF might have stationed some of its air assets in Pakistan and might surprise India by attacking from the Pakistan side.How likely is that?
2)https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/us-shifting-military-to-face-chinese-threat-to-india-and-south-east-asia-pompeo/story-9zqoaeuFQVwA8wbUQMVXjI.html
Some excerpts
"Pompeo was asked why the US had reduced the number of troops it has based in Germany. The US Secretary of State said that if US troops were no longer there, it was because they were being moved to face other places. The actions of the Chinese Communist Party meant there were “threats to India” and countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and the South China Sea. The US military is “postured appropriately” to meet these “challenges of our time”, he said.
“The decision that the President made with respect to Germany is an outcome of a collective set of decisions about how we are going to posture our resources around the world,” he said, pointing that this would imply that there would be fewer American resources in some places.
“There will be other places - I just talked about the threat from the Chinese Communist Party - ... THREATS TO INDIA, threats to Vietnam, threats to Malaysia, Indonesia, South China Sea challenges, the Philippines. We are going to make sure we are postured appropriately to counter the PLA (People’s Liberation Army). We think that is the challenge of our time and we are going to make sure we have resources in place to do that,” he said.
What do you make of these comments sir?
"At the minimum, a mutual withdrawal will de-escalate the current tension. Understanding that both sides will return to change the status quo and improve their position, Beijing is stringing New Delhi along, bogging it down, and forcing it to eventually “accept reality,” and make compromises on the border demarcation. The trick for Beijing is to maintain the struggle on the ground without triggering a war, of course. It’s a long process of friction and attrition. The tactical objective of returning to the occupation line by the end of the 1962 war could be one move to inflate China’s negotiation position and force India to accept the fait accompli."
Source:https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash/
To ARUN: 1) If that has to be done, it will have to be done with the help of PA’s human resources like the NLI Battalions & Mujahid Force battalions. 2) Yes, because along the Loc there are villages all along, whereas along the LAC there’s no settled population. 3) Not deter, but will scare China as it will be seen as India getting ever closer to the US. 4) India & the US have always been allies, but not in a formal manner. The term used by both to describe the relationship since the 1950s is SILENT BUT STEADFAST PARTNER. 5) The fact that Russia has leased nuclear-powered SSGNs to India & never to China should prove once & for all where Russia’s sympathies lie. 6) Only if Russia falls behind Chins in the arena of new-generation weapons developments.
To KAPIL: 1) Just like China, India too can revisit her history to dig up documentary evidence in support of making a new claim, such as upholding the 1842 Chushul Treaty between the Maharaja of Kashmir & the Tibetan Government of that time. 2) Where is China’s military superiority? I have seen seen any evidence of such superiority in the land, sea & air domains. In fact, both numerically & technologically, India’s armed forces have always enjoyed superiority over their PLA counterparts. Can you for instance show me any evidence about the PLAAF possessing MRCAs equipped with AESA-MMRs or MMRs with terrain-avoidance capability? In the event of hostilities the IAF’s Jaguars & Mirage-2000Ns & soon the Rafales can easily destroy China’s much-vaunted rail/road networks anywhere in TAR in a matter of 12 hours & even the arterial G-219 Highway & its 6 Feeder Highways can be rendered unusuable within 6 hours, rest assured.
To DASHU: At this point in time, it will be worthwhile to read some historical battle-accounts, like how the Syrian Army’s heliborne special forces at 2.30pm on October 6, 1973 stormed the Israel-operated SIGINT station atop Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights & effortlessly captured it within 30 minutes. Something similar needs to be accomplished at Sikkim’s Jelep La Pass. Meanwhile, here’s an update from the Ladakhi front:
Depsang Bulge-Trig Heights-Burtse: 35 19 48.21 N, 78 10 36.49 E & 34 49 30.40 N, 78 54 2.66 E
The PLA has marked its presence at a crucial Y-junction near the Burtse OP in Ladakh. Barely 30km south of the strategically important Daulat Beg Oldie ALG, this Y-junction is also known as ‘Bottleneck’ in Indian Army parlance because any patrol seeking to reach either Point 10 or Point 13 along the Line of Patrol, must cross this junction. It is interesting to recall that the PLA had crossed the Y-junction and stopped barely 1,500 metres short of the Burtse OP in April 2013. Both India and China use the route along Raki Nala, north of Y-junction, for patrolling purposes and it is not uncommon for both sides to run into each other. In 1976, the Govt of India had constituted a China Study Group (an in-house think-tank of the MEA), which revised the patrolling limits along the LAC. As can be seen from the map, patrolling points 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13 fall slightly short of the LAC.
Maps: https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5jrKIxjipZ4/XvUI11W2cWI/AAAAAAAATsc/dZVFHHC0Ir8OTSCZEk1HuC-DGfSOv7q6wCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Depsang%2BBulge-Trig%2BHeights-Burtse.jpg
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_-lsrY_Spy0/XvUI2rN8HdI/AAAAAAAATsg/I3UqHfezKKcq6-Ng8x_lFAE3yf6bgAatgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Depsang%2BY%2BJunction.jpg
To ASD: Everything is possible, for where there is a will there will always be a way. That’s why you will recall a few years ago the Karmapa was the subject of investigations by both the IB & Himachal Pradesh Police, due to which he had to leave India & go to the US. And you should also try to find out why Thimpu never allows the Dalai Lama to set foot in Bhutan.
To ARUN: LoLz! Let the PLAAF give it a try & we all will then bear witness to the total destruction of that PAF air base/es with both BrahMos-1 & Prithvi SS-150 SS-BSMs.
As for the continuing US pivot to the Far East, sound common-sense (a very rare/extinct gift inside India) had revealed way back in 2004 that demographic changes will eventually cause both HK SAR & Taiwan to seek independence from China within a decade. In 1997, one-third of its population then comprised the original inhabitants hailing from Canton who were pro-Communist China, with another one-third hailing from Canton (Guangdong province) but having fled the Mainland after the 1959 famine & therefore being anti-Communists, and the remaining inhabitants being born after 1959 who were clueless about Communist China. Thus by 2014, the great majority of HK SAR’s population was comprising those who were against Communism & one-party rule. Consequently, since 2014 time has been running out for China to impose its writ over both HK SAR & Taiwan. Today, as things stand, public opinion in both HK SAR & Taiwan is overwhelmingly anti-China while on the other hand, China’s Communist Party, in order to preserve its hold on to power, cannot be seen to be letting HK SAR & Taiwan become independent as this will tantamount to China capitulating on its core national interests. So what is likely to happen?
All wargaming scenarios so far have predicted that throughout coastal China & from HK SAR, the times ahead will see a mass exodus of people by sea who will try to flee to Taiwan or to other Southeast Asian countries for seeking political asylum. And if course the PLA Navy will try to stop this exodus (that’s the reason why the PLA Navy has acquired a huge number of homegrown guided-missile corvettes & guided-missile frigates) both in its territorial waters & also in the high seas & this may well result in PLA Navy warships intruding inside the territorial waters of the Southeast Asian countries, which in turn will lead to naval clashes between the PLA Navy & the navies of these countries. And the only 3 navies that can provide warships for protecting the much smaller navies of Southeast Asia are the navies of the US, Japan & India.
Thanks. I am sticking to your point, it makes sense to me.
1) Sir Are hotan and ngari only two airbases they can reach us from? What about their bombers?
And how much disparity will the jets there can cause vs our jets from hinterland?
They don't have any HAS on either bases so must be lot of SAMs.
2) How far are our barak8 deliveries and what's the total order breakdown in term of rgmt or sq/battery for IAF and IA till now?
3) can their armed drones cause disparate losses on our dug in positions and armour like they do in middle east? We seem to have an okay deployment of manpads and L70/zsu23 but no qrsam.
Hi Prasun,
It is reported that some Russian Il-76 planes have landed in India to deliver some weapons, can you shed some light on it? What weapons if any are being delivered?
Under present circumstances what will be the role of ITBP..i mean army has taken up LAC at ladakh and sikkim, Uk HP..so isnt it better for MHA to xfer operational command under IA
To AMIT BISWAS: Role of ITBP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhcriqYAu-E&t=40s
When I had shared this video earlier, several of those who absorbed its contents were horrified. For instance, when the former DG of ITBP said that the ITBP was used for obtaining a 'second opinion' on what was being reported by the IA!!!
To SHANTYLAL: Those are routine deliveries for orders placed last year, i.e. for spares reqd by various land/sea/air platforms.
To VSJ: Their bombers are the H-6K, i.e. clones of Soviet-era Tu-16s of 1960s design vintage. 2) Barak-8 MR-SAM for IAF & Barak-8 LR-SAM for IN both use the same type of missile. Only the VLS launchers are different & hence supply of missile rounds isn't an issue. Four Batteries of Barak-8 for Ladakh will more than suffice for now. 3) No drone can survive in contested airspace. Hence only in North Africa (Libya) or Afghanistan or Yemen where no air-defence networks exist are armed drones in widespread use.
Prasunda,
If Brahmos-1's and Prithvi SS-150s can be expected to wipe PAF airbases out if they host the PLAAF, wo'nt PLARF missiles also be able to do the same to our airbases ? Or are PLARF missiles less acuurate than even the SS-150 Prithvi ?
Satyaki
Good afternoon sir
1)Colonel(retd)Sonam Wangchuk said that the Ladakh Scouts should be expanded.By how much do you think they should be expanded?The Colonel said that a few more battalions should be added.Should they be expanded to division size since they know the terrain so well?
2)By how many divisions do you think that the Indian Army itself should be expanded?
3)How much of a threat would China's H-6K bomber pose to India?
4)What do you think about the space reforms that were announced on Wednesday?
Prasun Da, thanks for your insightful replies. To me, however, there are some questions, for which I request your views.
A. It appears that, if nothing extra ordinary happens, Joe Bidden, ex Vice President, may well be the new US President in 2020. Since, Senator Bidden has already started nit picking Government of India, on CAA, NRC & scrapping of Article 370,in his desperate bid to out reach to Radical Muslims, ignoring Genocide of Kashmiri Pundit population. Since, our PM has bonhomie with Trump Administration, it may be well possible that Joe Bidden once elected will start raking up these issues, in every forums. Linking backing India, in every organization, to reversion of those decision on which it's government has no locus standie. Although, it may be related to abki bar Trump Sarkar slogan, tit for tat approach, and new POTUS may take similar road of his successor in international arena. IMHO the black lives matter, though having genuine ground has been later hijacked by Thugs, anti socials. Curiously enough Trump still manages to garner much more election fund than Bidden from the Businessman community, which invest on the candidate from whome they profit most.
B. What about INC 's agreement with CCP ? How can they sign it with a revisionist minded authoritarian party ? It is high time they come clean, for me there are many skeletons in the closet of this dynastically ruled party, in the democratic set up.
C. Having read General Panang's view, the economic angle , to me is the prime reason behind the PLA's theatricals. They have suffered a rude jolt in WTO. Their hope for being declared as Market economy has been shattered. EU have imposed high tarif on them against dumping. Similarly, others will including India follow the same, it is the same reason Chinese are seeking clarity regarding import of 23 items from India, a desperate attempt will be or has been made to include India in BRI. If the countries start to impose such tariff PRC will have its face rub to dust within a few years.
D. It appears that OFB Employees are hell bent on strike from July. The Government now better forget OFB Dhanus MGS , better go for import Nexter CESAR off the shelf Govt. To Govt. contract, and make in India category.
E. Seems our media has fallen into disinformation trap originated from across the border (Pakistan and probably Bangladesh), regarding water flow from Bhutan to Assam for irrigation purpose. Timely media briefing from Bhutan has saved the day. IMO, GoI should officially urge the media houses for mandatory authentication of source of such type of news from now.
F. I rue the lack of interest from our leadership to consider raising historical data prior the British rule to give a reality check to the rough neighbours eg. PRC and Communist Nepal. Such as raising the Geographical boundary of Kushan Empire to deal with PRC, and Soros Mahajanapadas to give a tight slap to half educated Nepali Maoist leaders. Even any nation like Indonesia , Malaysia, Vietnam or Philippines would have take such stand.
G. As you have rightly mentioned, the days for existence of Nepal in its present Geographical Map is numbered. China has already redrawn boundaries in Northern Nepal. Failure of Nepal to contain Covid 19 and Madhesi resentment on Citizenship amendment will embroil Nepal in internal Civilian unrest, resulting possible break up of the country. There's already severe spat between Prachanda and Oli. In this context , what if China decides to use Nepali landmass to ferry PLA troops to Uttarakhand Border or other areas, does IA kept the scenario in their mind ?
H. What's the use of H 6 Bombers of PLA, at time of arial campaign, it realy has no chance to survive ? also it is good for Russia to have a weaker and Bolcanised China for its long term safety.
Contd...
I. What's the reason behind Pakistan to reserve 50 % bed in Hospitals in POK in Case of emergency. Do they expect attack of IA. Also, is it fact that Sindhi officers of PA went on leave refusing PA order to fire on PoK protesters ?
https://youtu.be/8vNIz22xc34
Seems Pakistan is hell bent to get into the FATF blacklist with its PM Offering Sahadat to Osama bin Laden.
https://youtu.be/nDPz0rMhBqU
J. Is Bangladesh going to fall in Debt Trap of PRC ?
https://youtu.be/3rdURF3KaPc
Please share your views on the above, thanks in advance, Dada.
Prasunda,
1) Can't ESMA be invoked to prevent the OFB workers from striking ?
2) Do the PLA S-400 deployments in theatre change the balance of airpower in the event of a conflict ?
Kritavarma
Considering that you are my sole source of fact check... is PLAAF actually landing in Pakistan or just twitterati hot air?
Also their H6k can't reach us without being deployed near LAC?
Thanks.
PrasunDa,
(1) Rajnath Singh said to Russian media that Russia has agreed to expedite deliveries of the S-400 and intensify negotiations for 21 MiG-29 and 12 Su-30MKI fighters. S-400 may arrive this year itself
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4391564
(2) India's ambassador to China has said that China indeed crossed over into the Indian side of the LAC
https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1276534439363801088?s=20
Thanks
Sir, what's the reason behind procuring 21 Mig-29? I mean why dont procure 21 Mig-35 instead or 33 Sukhois? Also there are reports that Russia raised the issue of SPAD GMS deal with Rajnath Singh. I think we should buy the latest Pantsir SM instead of South Korean Biho. What is your opinion on this?
To SATYAKI: Exactly, & that’s why it will result in mutual destruction of both & no one will emerge as the winner. So that’s why China will never do anything to initiate any kind if war against India, as I had explained 3 days ago to PAWAN.
To ARUN: 1) Since the population of Ladakh is quite small, any expansion of Ladakh Scouts will not be able to meet the reqd quantum of soldiers reqd to man the AC just like the LoC presently is. Presently, only 32 Battalions of ITBP are in Ladakh & if the entire LAC is to be properly manned, then the ITBP wants a total of 96 Battalions in Ladakh. 2) What for? As it is the IA’s entire Southern Command is already redundant. 3) None whatsoever. 4) Initial baby-steps, but they are to be welcomed. But let’s see whether the private-sector is allowed to set up their own space launch centres further south nearer to the Equator, like on one of the islands of Mauritius.
To KRITAVARMA: 1) Yes. 2) The S-400s will be kept by the PLAAF along the Taiwan Straits & will not be moved inside TAR because as I had earlier explained, China is not looking for any kind of war with India.
To VSJ: It is FAKE NEWS.
To VIKRAM GUHA: 2) Yes, that was the case on June 14/15 & after the skirmish, the PLA has not crossed the LAC & certainly not into India-controlled territory.
To SUMANTA NAG: A) The US citizens will prefer continuity to change in the post-COVID period & hence President Trump has high chances of getting re-elected. B) Legally, there’s nothing wrong in such agreements, since they are limited to the respective political parties of both countries. On the other hand, in the 60+ schools now being run by the Central Tibetan Administration in India, only Tibetan Buddhism is taught, not Indian Buddhism. G) That possibility exists, but in such a case, the US & UK will play the pivotal role in not allowing Nepal to do so. H) H-6K bombers are useless against the IAF & they will have no role to play in any future air warfare over Ladakh or PoK. J) No.
I) If I were in NaMo’s shoes, I would be inclined to kill 2 birds with 1 stone, attain the desired politico-military objectives in a sequential manner. What this means is that while I would keep China engaged in long drawn-out negotiations about disengagement & de-escalation (knowing fully well that China will not withdraw from where it has reached thus far) & not initiate any military action against the PLA lest India be blamed as the first one to open fire, at the same time I will look for ways to make China pay dearly for its unilateral actions along the LAC. And the best way to do this will be to carry out a week-long tactical AirLand military campaign against Pakistan by 1) Conducting fierce fire-assaults with the Excalibur PGM projectiles in the Haji Pir area & capturing it for good. 2) Conducting a Brigade-strength heliborne air-assault north of the LoC to capture all the existing Pakistan Army helipads located in Oltingthang & Siari all the way eastwards up to Turtok. These areas of Baltistan are sparsely populated with Shias & hence their inhabitants have affinities with the population of Kargil, Drass, Batalik & Turtok. At the same time, the loss of Oltingthang & Siari will bring the IA & IAF closer to Goma/Giari where the PA’s 323 Brigade is located 26km to the west of the Siachen Glacier & will also block the land transportation routes to Goma/Giari. This will also enable the existing Kargil Airport to be expanded into a full-fledged air base that could then be used against an air-assault on Skardu. And Haji Pir’s capture will enable connectivity between Uri & Poonch, deny Leepa Valley to the PA for terrorist infiltrations & also greatly complicate the PA’s land transportation routes to the Neelam Valley further up north. And that’s why I have strong reasons to believe that all the heightened operations by the IAF in northern J & K & Ladakh are aimed not against China, but against PoK in the 2 months ahead. Perhaps the PA too fears this eventuality.
K) Against China, let the negotiations carry on till October & if nothing positive emerges (as I expect), then there are 2 options available: 1) Capture some territory to the east Like Jelep La pass in Sikkim or Longju that was part of NEFA till 1959. 2) Conduct joint naval exercises with the navies of the US, Japan & Australia in the Andaman Sea. What such exercises will do is, while not creating a naval blocade, such exercises will cause all merchant marine vessels traversing the Indian Ocean & destined for coastal China to change course or slow down & their shipping companies will have to increase their insurance premiums, thereby indirectly disrupting China’s sea lanes of communications. In fact, this can begin by next month itself, since the US Navy now has 3 carrier battle groups available at sea, so that 1 can conduct such exercises in the South China Sea, 1 near the Taiwan Straits & 1 in the Andaman Sea.
Have heard from the grapevine that talks have begun between the US & India for the following:
1) Purchase of 8 Predator-C turbofan-powered Avenger UAS for the IAF.
https://www.ga-asi.com/predator-c-avenger
2) Possible sale of six ex-USAF C-130J Hercules transports to the IAF.
3) Procurement of up to 3,000 rounds of Excalibur 155mm guided-projectiles.
4) Expediting the integration of the EMP warhead-armed SAAW with Mirage-2000Ns, Jaguar IS/DARIN-3s & Su-30MKIs. BDL is ready to series-produce the SAAWs.
It is welcome news that US & India have begun talks for emergency purchase. Basics are still missing
1. Ensure Dhanush is ramped up by ensuring Tata & Kalyani make it. Same with ATAGS, OFB make it.
2. MGS is still pending.
3. Start testing Kalyani light howitzers.
4.Start ensuring 114-36-21 = 57 medium fighters are ordered quickly.
5. The LMG deliveries are pushed.
6. How is local assault rifle upgrade to 7.62*51 mm progressing ?
7. Why are both Russian project KA-226 & AK203 moving slowly ?
Regards
Venky
PKS question time in the PKS Parliament: Is Shri PKS aware that Shriman Joydeep Ghosh who fires salvos of questions from his MBQL (multi barrell question launcher) then mixes all the answers into a perfect precis and rewrites them in IDRW under My Take?
Doesn't take a genius to work out the CCP led China plans against India. Chinese rulers have always planned in advance their grand plan to make itself a strong, robust controlling juggernaut in the world and stand tall and equal with the US as a Super power. This they want to achieve through all three fronts- financial, military and diplomacy. Since economic prowess and military clout pave the way for diplomatic influence, the Chinese Red Capitalists plan for world domination through expanded financial power and capability - the start of which was sucking in the Western capitalists with the lure of cheap gains - result 100% success with all Western countries losing their manufacturing and industries; then buy out prominent areas of business, real estate and communications - 75% success; this in turn leads to military might by espionage and so called collaboration with friendly states then convert these into reverse engineering - 60% success - all this creates diplomatic influence where despite plenty of hard talk no one can take real actions. India is just a pawn in Beijing's world ambition. In its look West policy, China wants access to the Sea on the West owning Pakistan and forever securing its borders against any Muslim threat - this means first and foremost it must erase the northern border of India just above HP instead of J&K. This way Pakistan is happy that J&K is its own albeit China would be the real owner to run CPEC legitimately; at the same time AP and Sikkim will remain areas where China can keep India busy and waste its energy never able to shake off the Chinese threat; in fact Beijing will use this as a leverage to force India to join BRI as a trade off thereby gaining access to the sea and neighbouring countries in the vicinity - thus this in turn will promote Chinese hegemony and keep Indian influence to minimum.
By far the most thorough analysis and the most enjoyable/educative thread by Prasun. I hope appropriate leaders get some of the ideas and make India great again instead of fanning sectarianism and old British divide and rule formula within the nation.
Your blog is a treasure trove of information.I come here almost everyday.The fact that you answer all the questions that your readers have is also very praiseworthy.Why don't you open an account on Twitter?Many handles spread disinformation on Twitter and mislead people.You could combat fake news and also share your knowledge with a wider audience and your blog will also get more readers.Your presence on Twitter would be great,especially during situations like this.
Is india developing kamikaze type or suicidal mini drone that can be even launched from helicopter and aircraft..
Sir you once said India eventually go for 50 plus additional mig 29 that Russia does have...
Will it be better to go for them in one go as it will cost much less as you said and help to boost Indian depleting fighter strength ...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mh_tmtD7PRU
India-China Situation is Improving, Not Deteriorating as the Media Suggests' | Karan Thapar
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ahQsaIRg4l8
Gravitas: China's spy racket: Bigger than the cold war
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qtpRGVy_jiY
Cyber Red Alert: '4000 Cyber Attack In 5 Days,' China Is Now Targeting India's Cyber Space
Does India has the means and capacity to launch cyber attack on china .
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8vNIz22xc34
PoK Sindhi soldiers refuse to fight for Pak Army |NewsX
One question in the near future if china does break up will India get aksai chin and the area to kailash mountain or Tibet will again claim those area .
Do you think Indian military planner going in right direction ...To meet the present crisis.
To increase Indian Navy strength rapidly can India go for war reserved American ships modified for Indian purpose .
Hi Prasunji,
1. If IAF gets Predator drones, as per your opinion where should IAF use it ? LAC or LOC ?
2. Do we use existing Israeli drones to counter Naxals ? If not, why ?
3. Recently a bridge fell in Uttarakhand while a truck was carrying an excavator machine. Our infrastructure is so poor in those border areas along LAC that, it couldn't even support an approx. 30 tonnes weight of a truck & an excavtor.
How are we supposed to take our tanks, IFVs, other heavy equipments up those mountains ?
Should we supposed to use heavy transport aircrafts every time to carry tanks & IFVs etc. up the mountains ?
Do you think, there should be a SOP or a guideline that the bridges & roads in border areas should be able to carry 50-60 tonnes weight ?
4. Recently I saw post on Twitter that our Vikrant Air-craft carrier was moved from one point to another POSSIBLY using it's own propulsion.
When do you think our carrier would be ready for Navy to start testing & trials on it ?
5. What advantages Mr. S. Jaishankar brings to our external affairs given that he is an ex-diplomat handling our MEA office ?
6. Using similar analogy of S. Jaishankar & MEA, should we appoint a good economist/CA to our finance department ?
Thanks & Regards,
MG6357
@Prasun da
1. why will India buy 8 Predator-C turbofan-powered Avenger UAS for the IAF when USAF ittself hasnt bought more than 10, meaning its not a popular choice.
2. to counter China India needs to finish off PoK problem by 2021 and then setup a clash over LAC with China by late 2024 or 25, bcoz o matter what people may say even after war gaming it will virtually impossible for India to engage in 2 front war
3.its imp. for India to make it unteneble for China to hold on to Aksai Chin
4. have the Brazilian Mirage 2000 been scrapped.
5. Yoyu say China doesnt want war, but it will continue grabbing land, something no political party in India can sell it to public, meaning india will be forced to initiate war but how, what as per you will be trigger
6. you say saying IAF want 6 more EX C130 J of USAF but are these C130 J Sh or older models
7. if indfded IA does op inside PoK then beside Haji pir, Oltingthang/Skardu iy=t is as per me very important for IA to go dwwn from Indira Cole towards Karakoram pass making the road unusable for Chinese or Pakistani
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
That bridge according to HT report could only support four wheelers in any given time. That moron tried to cross that with the heavy truck with the Excavator onboard. He is also booked by the police.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/truck-driver-booked-after-bridge-collapse-near-indo-china-border-in-uttarakhand/story-o717JEepWZQcnsM7SGoDjI_amp.html
Prasun Da, thanks for sharing the news about the possible procurement of Avenger drones.
However, it seems MoD or PM's office has still not deliberated on the other suggestion that you had of procuring a few THAAD batteries immediately.
Thanks, Sujoy
Prasun,
1-Protests against Oli. will his govt fall? is India engineering his downfall as it should, if not, what are we waiting for .. recently read that they had brought a motion to ban hindi in nepal
2- Joe Biden & his democrats toeing the labour line.. biden's stmts about muslim feelings being hurt is a open giveaway as to who is funding the democratic campaign (possibly qatar & turkey That Bitch Ilan omar being erdogan's cocubine). Not strong rebuttal to that comment has come from the India. It's difficult to udertsand what makes the democrats toe that line esp after seeing the labour getting thrashed in the UK. can you share some of your analysis on this left-islamist nexus and which countries are the financers. is the congress funding the indian-american democrats like that lady jaypal thru their foreign affairs dept? to spite against Modi?
3- what has Rajnath achieved during his visit to Russia .. wasn't it a bit silly to go there so soon in the midst of a border issue as it comes across as one seeking help.. he cud have just telephoned/video called for what he wanted
4- turkey's growing defence-https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eanCfnCfPJI .. if not nipped in the bud . one more headache for the world..
5- what all projects will get expedited ? IN urgently needs more subs in the indian ocean.. has rajnath's visit sealed the 3+ 3 deal for more kilo class subs?
6-why aren't the private sector companies like SSS or others roped in to make small arms rather than give things on a platter to the OFB who by the way are planning a strike .. by the time the ak203 land in the hands of the army I bet a few of the private cos would have already battle tested their weapons and why is the army not insisting on pvt sector participation like the IN & the IAF esp w.r.t small arms..a lot of MSME's cud get benefit from it
Sir,
1. Do iaf mi17v5 have any maws suite for self defence?
2. Does the hal lch is configured to carry only four atgm and four air to air missiles?
3. Why not iaf is trying to procure Raytheon sentinel system?
4. Are these 8 avenger turbofan uav is an alternative to 10 predator drones currently in the pipeline?
To VENKY: There’s more than enough firepower available for catering to a 2-front limited war scenario. The core deficiencies are in the arena of combat-support hardware for facilitating battlefield logistics, i.e. additional C-130J-30s, CH-47Fs, Mi-17V-5s & single-engined LUHs for CASEVAC.
To KRITAVARMA: Yes, I am aware & all I can say is that each & every action has consequences & whether the latter is positive or negative will be decided & acted upon by the Gods of Yore!
To BUDDHA: 1) The IAF has had Harpy killer-drones since 1996 & Harop killer-drones since 2012. 2) Karan Thapar was being fed fairy-tales. 3) Yes, if offensive cyber-attacks have been launched against Pakistan, then why can’t they be launched against China? 4) If TAR becomes an independent entity (which is most unlikely), then both TAR & India will end up having open borders of the type now existing between India & Nepal. 5) Indian military planners have always sought to go in the right direction. It is the ‘netas’ & ‘babus’ that have always been the constraining factor. 6) Yes, like procuring five additional ex-US Navy Trenton-class LPDs.
To MG6357: 1) They can be used anywhere. 2) No, because mini-drones are far better-suited than MALE-UAS platforms for such purposes. 3) Next to every bridge is a signboard with clear instructions on the bridge’s load-bearing capacity. Now if folks don’t read what’s written on the signboard or are resigned to the dictum of ‘All Rules Are Always Made To Be Broken’, then the only antidote is to impose costs & make the rule-breakers pay for the cost of rebuilding the bridge. 4) Not before 2021. 5) He knows how to work through the bureaucratic maze. In addition, being a South Indian, he is immune to/insulated against all the communal bias/sentiments that most North Indian officials tend to display, which has over the years resulted in an over-emphasis on Pakistan & near-total neglect of China. 6) No. A businessperson should instead be appointed. Anyone who sincerely believes that a welfare-state country can be run as profitably & productively as a MNC will be the right person to become the Union Finance Minister.
To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Why should the number of procured platforms be the yardstick for whether or not that platform is good or bad? 3) If India’s ‘netas’ have not bothered to exercise 24/7 control over the whole of Aksai China between 1954 & now, then where’s the need now to do so? 5) Why so? Haven’t successive Govts of India survived since 1954 despite losing chunks of real-estate as recent as last May? 6) There is no old or new C-130J. There’s only airworthy & unserviceable C-130J. 7) Who says there’s a road through the Karakoram Pass? What’s the name of that road? Are you ASSUMING that the KKH passes through the Karakoram Pass? If yes, then I’m afraid you’re as dumb as this ‘desi’ patrakaar’ who is claiming that the KKH passes through the Shaksgam Valley when the map directly behind him shows the KKH well to the west if the Shaksgam Valley (i.e. that imbecile does not know the difference between the Trans-Karakoram Tract & Shaksgam Valley):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXpi6f_3NE0
His verbal narrative is completely at odds with the map that he has drawn behind him! This is what happens to those who go to great lengths to write books about ‘Modi’s Way’, but end up forgetting their own way/path!!!
To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Well, I wasn’t part of any such deliberations & so I can’t state with certainty what was/was not discussed. If you were present in-person during such deliberations, then you probably will have a better knowledge about what was or was not discussed/deliberated upon.
Sir what roads/passes lead into GB from India for connectivity? Will just haji pir pass secure the ground route?
Surely PA can offer better resistance than that?
To MILLARD KEYES & ARUN: VMT. I have also received a few queries that seek to clear all the confusion now being created by the band of ‘desi patrakaars’. It is the utter lack of specificity & an sheer reluctance to go into the finer details, especially by India’s ‘desi patrakaars’ as well as by several but not all retired military officials & former career bureaucrats/diplomats, which is causing much confusion. Consequently, the best way to clear the mist/fog is to advance in a chronological manner:
1) First, the definition of CLAIM-LINE. In the absence of a mutually delineated & demarcated Sino-Indian international boundary, the political map of India that was issued in 1954 showed the political boundary of independent India. This continues till this day to be the Indian CLAIM-LINE as shown in the BHUVAN imagery database. But this does not mean that it is this CLAIM-LINE that has always been physically patrolled.
2) India began sending out patrols only in 1959 as part of the Forward Policy, but the foot-patrols were NEVER sent up to the CLAIM-LINE. Instead, the patrols originated out from the 77 manned Forward Posts that were set up by the Indian Army & CRPF throughout Ladakh, with the foot-patrols going eastwards between 25km & 40km ahead of the manned Forward Posts, but NOT EVEN ONCE reaching the CLAIM-LINE. The furthest point the foot-patrols reached was & is still known as the LINE OF PATROL in Indian Army parlance. Hence, there’s a Heaven-n-Earth difference between the definitions of CLAIM-LINE & LINE OF PATROL. Hence, while in 1959, the Forward Post at the Galwan River-Valley was sited at what is today PP-14 (34 46 9.41 N, 78 12 47.36 E), the Indian Army’s Line of Patrol extended all the way southeastwards to 34 38 01.5 N, 78 36 45.1 E. The same is the case with Panggong Tso Lake. The Indian Army’s three manned Forward Posts at Sirijap-1/2/3 were established EAST of Finger-8, from where foot-patrols ventured further eastwards to the line shown in green as the CLAIM-LINE or IB as defined by India in 1954. Had the govt of the day had decided that it would erect simple memorials in all those battlefields where the IA had fought to the last man back in October/November 1962, they would today have served as tangible & irrefutable proof of Indian LINES OF PATROL & would have prevented the PLA from steadily creeping westwards.
3) Coming now to the map illustrations, the GoogleEarth imagery available online shows China’s claim-line or China’s version of the LAC because at the time the data-base was being created, Google Inc was trying hard to access the Chinese market. Hence, if you were to initiate a search today on ‘Galwan River’ the answer you will obtain is ‘Gallowan River’, i.e. the English translation of the Mandarin term denoting that site.
Cont'd below...
4) Now to the saga of the LINE OF PATROL, there have been at least six iterations of exactly constitutes this line & all such iterations were drawn up & articulated by the Indian MEA’s China Study Group, starting from 1976 & the last iteration emerging in 2013. And the number of manned Forward Posts was reduced from 77 to the 65 today. Consequently, the lateral & linear direction/orientation of these LINES OF PATROL have been remarkably inconsistent—a point which has yet to be publicly revealed & to date only the likes of retired Lt Gens H S Panag & Rameshwar Roy have mustered the guts to reveal them in bits & pieces. Needless to say, this has caused over the years a lot of heartburn & demoralisation among both the Indian Army & ITBP simply because if India has been seen to be unsure of where exactly her LINE OF PATROL lies, then in essence India is squarely buying herself squarely into China’s playbook & narrative. Hence, as expected China decided to take a giant leap forward back in 2009 by claiming that the entire territory of Ladakh is disputed & hence the length of the LAC is only 2,000km-long & not 3,488km as India claims.
Lastly, there was a serious incident at Panggong Tso near Khurnak Fort sometime in 2003 when Maj Gen Sheru Thapliyal was the GOC of the Leh-based 3 ‘Trishul’ Infantry Division. As narrated by him in a TV talk-show very early in this decade, one of his patrolling companies was once ambushed & outnumbered by the PLA & this Company was forced to surrender its weapons & made to squat for a few hours with their hands folded above their helmets.
Once again, very interesting.
I take it you've seen this story
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-moves-air-defence-missile-systems-into-eastern-ladakh-sector/articleshow/76661064.cms
There is a sentence in there about India getting a highly capable AD system from a friendly country shortly. What are they talking about?
To VSJ: The main traditional route is the Kargil-Skardu Road. Haji Pir will be the first target in western PoK & later on the Neelum Valley, Sharda & Kel areas can follow next year. If PA could offer resistance, then it would not have raised the AJK Mujahid Force Battalions to act as the first line of defence. Meanwhile, at last there are voices tearing into the false narrative that was built up since mid-May by most ‘desi patrakaars’:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSwCyC2uWM&t=34s
Ret’d Lt Gen Harwant Singh has clearly exposed the shortcomings, as has this:
https://theprint.in/opinion/crying-wolf-over-indias-intelligence-failure-at-lac-ignores-bad-guys/449503/
What the Lt Gen was saying was that as soon the PLA's buildup was noticed a few km away from Panggong Tso, the IA & IAF together should have undertaken a quick-reaction vertical envelopment campaign to quickly heli-transport IA troops on the dominating mountain spurs right up to Finger-8, thereby disrupting the PLA's plans for permanently digging in at those spurs. Only the coming days will reveal if the IA-IAF combine had wargamed such a scenario for devising such a contingency plan.
It’s the same old story: in 1999 the then Govt of India was taken for a ride by the Lahore Summit & this Govt has been taken for a ride by the Wuhan & Mammalapuram Informal Summits. In any self-respecting country by now the NSA & Defence Secretary would both have resigned. Instead, the latter gets rewarded with a ‘phoren’ junket to Moscow! This is the same ‘Babu’ who was instrumental in wasting the Indian taxpayer’s money by organising the Tejas Mk.1’s participation at the LIMA 2019 expo in Langkawi, Malaysia, in the vain hope of Malaysia ordering a MRCA equipped with Israel-origin hardware like Targo HMDS, Derby BVRAAMs & EL/M-2032 MMR!!!
To SBM: The SpyDer-SRs have been deployed for guarding the fuel/ammo storage logistics dumps. Akash-1 obviously does not qualify as a very quick-reaction SAM. And the Barak-8 MR-SAM of the IAF is being operationalised both in Ladakh UT & J & K UT. Nothing else is reqd or expected from anywhere else.
Hi,
I have been following your blog for the last 2-3years. It's been one of best sources for the average reader to cut through the obfuscation that goes on.
Specific to this video,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSwCyC2uWM&t=34s
The NN anchor claims forward ITPB post as chinese base and our helipads at newly built Chinese one. Is it ignorance of the highest level as usual or have the chinese really come this far ?
Prasunda
😜PRC loses face, no benchmarking with USA as now PRC firmly hyphenated with India. Must be galling for PRC😆. Let's prepare for War as victory on ground ultimately decides Winners. A
As youhyou havethave pointed out all India has to do is retain the initiative that our soldiers on the ground gave us with their bravery & gumption, move at the time & place of our choosing & sequence - LOC, POK, CPEC SHAKSGAM, LAC, AKSAI CHIN, KAILAS-MANSAROVAR AREA, PRC BREAK-UP & FREE TIBET. The parts after POK & CPEC shall of course require as you have again said A COALITION OF THE WILLING.
Though the usual wyd say India is overstretching itself & PRC is now in South Asia with BRI with India isolated.
The economy is anyway in war mode thanks to the biological attack. Let's initiate now
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/06/25/indias-modi-supplants-trump-as-chinas-toughest-global-adversary
I have pored over the Southern Baltistan region on maps plenty of times in the past and I have also studied its history.And it is a fascinating region.Chorbat Valley has many villages.It starts at Bogdang in J&K and ends in Gilgit-Baltistan.The villages in Gilgit-Baltistan come under Ghanche District.Before 1971,India only used to control Bogdang.But during 1971,the legendary Chewang Rinchen and his men captured some more villages in Chorbat Valley like Chalunka(used to the 1st village on the Pakistan side of the LoC),Turtuk,Tyakshi,Thang,etc.Many of the villagers of these ares used to send soldiers to Pak Army and after the war,Pak army stopped their pensions.These villages send soldiers for Indian Army today.The people of these villages have served for both armies.Thang is now the last village on the Indian side of the LoC.The first village of Gilgit-Baltistan is Fraono now.Siari(the village that sir mentioned)is just the 2nd village on the Pakistan side of the LoC.I read a tribute to Chewang Rinchen by French historian Claude Arpi in which he said that Chewang Rinchen and his Ladakh Scouts had plans to capture Fraono on December 17 but unfortunately couldn't since Pakistan surrendered on the 16th.There is a road that runs from Turtuk(controlled by India) to Khaplu(2nd most important town in Baltistan after Skardu).The Indian Army had plans to go on capturing villages in this road till Piun(and their objective in Kharmang District was Olthingthang).If the war had lasted for another week,places like Fraono,Siari,Chuar,Piun and Olthingthang would have been captured by India.Sir's mention of Siari brought back memories of reading about this region.
@KRITAVARMA or VASCO DE GAMA (best guess) in idrw
please dont troll, the language you speak on idrw i know it quite well
btw i have few questions for you too
1. do you know about India's historical claim ore kashgar, hota, yarkund
2 do you know about arms dealer sudhir chuadhary or raju samtani
3. atleast i am using my own name, where as both your names at top are pseudonym
@Prasun da
1. I was actually talking about this road (see link) that crosses into Trans karakoram tract/saksgham valley from a point not very far from Indira Cole, if IA comes down from Indira Cole towards this road and stop the traffic (like PA did in 1999) only then India can stake claim over Trans karakoram tract/saksgham valley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5AAvnyexzY
2. while i too feel 105 mm IFG is now obsolete but 105 mm MGS as direct fire system can still play a role in mountains due to its small size and low weight, your views (i know more M777s can be purchased but procuring them from USA is a long drawn process while 105 mm MGS can be made in India in double quick time
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
And now some questions:
1)There is a pass called the Burzil Pass that is located in Gilgit-Baltistan and is not too far away from the LoC.You did mention the Haji Pir Pass which is very important but isn't Burzil Pass as important as Haji Pir?Will control of Burzil Pass by India make it impossible for Pakistan to enter the Kashmir Valley(Gurez Bandipora) through Gilgit-Baltistan?
2)Speaking of Burzil Pass,there is a place called Minimarg that is close to it.Minimarg is south of the Burzil Pass and very close to the LoC(Gurez Valley on the Indian side).Isn't there a Brigade of the PA situated there?
3)I know that India captured many territories in Pakistan during 1971 but decided only to keep the gains made in Gilgit-Baltistan(Chalunka,Turtuk,Tyakshi,Thang,etc).I also read that most operations in the so called Azad Kashmir took place in Leepa Valley in 1971.I am curious to know whether we captured the Leepa Valley in 1971 and returned it just like we captured and returned the Haji Pir Pass in 1965.
4)There is a road called the Neelum Valley Road that runs from Muzaffarabad(capital of the so called Azad Kashmir) to Kel(in Neelum Valley).Some stretches on this road run along the LoC and can be seen from the Indian side of the LoC(especially Teetwal).I have heard that India's actions in 1993 forced the Pakistanis to close this road.And I have heard that Neelum Valley is the most favourite sector of the Indian Army when it comes to teaching the Pakistanis a lesson for ceasefire violations.Would it be accurate to say that out of all the sectors along the LoC,the Neelum Valley sector has the highest chance of being captured by the Indian Army?
5)Would I be correct to say that capture of Dansum,Gyari,Goma,Sakisa and Hushe will completely remove any threat of the PA to the Siachen?
Prasun da,
Does china's motorised divisions deployed along the border makes any advantages to them and if what is india's counter options. Will india have such motorised forces or any plan for ?
Any brahmos regiment is availabe on northern theater especially on ladakh region?
Thanks in advance
Prasun Da,
Just one request. Joydeep Ghosh da shouldn't be demoralised. Let him spread the words what he learns from here. As you say"commonsense" is something that's rarely available in our country so let your words get spread to the maximum.
@joydeep ghosh.....da please take @keitavarma words as joke. If we all become tense due to China's land grabbing, patriotic like me will feel suicidal. Let me survive at least with such hasi Mazak.
Sir, i have been following praveen sawhney from quite some time.
He propagates indian army cant win against PLA. Does he know something we are missing?
Secondly he thinks chances of further escalation is not possible and infact china has won according to him.
He has good links in china and PLA may be he is getting these vibes from PLA that they wont escalate this any more.
Without Air defence system and air superiority can you think IA can make PLA retreat as air defence is weak link in IA.
Do you think IAF should deploy AJT combat in ladhakh area as they are good at hitting ground target?
What should be IA and IAF approprite asset mix that can achieve our goal of PLA retreating from galwan or any other ladhakh like area in case of limited war?
I feel starting a naval exercise with japan, australia and USA in arabian sea in this time will impact chineses business as chinese merchant vessel with either slow down or take longer route increasing their insurance premium.
If china can claim whole of south china sea it own so cant india do with indian ocean and bay of bengal while taking our strategic partners in confidence. This will make chinese merchant vessels difficult and costly to ferry material to and from china. So will happen to chinese navy.
And in international forum all our partner nation can put pressure on china to rest its claim on south china sea and ladhakh in return for india to rest its.
In my thought this whole game of china entering ladhakh,japan sea, south china sea is pieces of a large puzzle. May be 2010 report of CIA on china be the puzzle.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/anxiety-in-kashmir-as-govt-orders-stocking-up-of-lpg-for-two-months-seeks-school-buildings-for-security-forces/article31937919.ece/amp/
Military operation in POK soon ?
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/anxiety-in-kashmir-as-govt-orders-stocking-up-of-lpg-for-two-months-seeks-school-buildings-for-security-forces/article31937919.ece/amp/
Hope India could pull it up.
Capt. Sawhney claims China has 2lakh mountain conditioned in Tibet since Doklam. Think its a big jump from your number of TAR combatants.
https://thewire.in/security/india-china-rules-of-engagement
Prasunda
Stuff & Nonsense from HAL MD. Having got the right guidance from you, the nonsense dished out is difficult to take in when logic & good sense obviously dictate otherwise
The 114 Fighter Aircraft will be just the Rafale MMRCA IMPORTED in successive tranches of 36-40 aircraft. It’s not feasible to manufacture 4thGen aircraft under license. SU30MKI cost 2.5times more to make under license. Make LCA/MWF now & maybe in future 5/6 Gen AMCA at least 20 years later. The Rafale is what the IAF needs & wants for it's MMRCA role. Even the addl. requirements of Su30MKI of Super Sukhoi standard will be imported from Russia to touch req. figure of 18 squadrons or 324 aircraft HMRCA. OTOH, the LCA Mk1 (40), Mk1A (83) & the Mk2/MWF (201) will be made in India for another 18 squadrons or 324 LMRCA. The only other MMRCA possible, if it succeeds can be the AMCA 5/6 Gen but it's at least 20 years away. The TEDBF, ORCA are all non-starters from viability POV. However the LCA Mk2 variant SPORT is an excellent trainer cum light multirole twin seat variant both for LIFT (Lead in Flight Trainer) & light strike roles for the IAF (90 Nos.) & also potential exports to third countries
https://youtu.be/i7je--u5FkM
Prasun how effective are Our Akash defense system to handle incoming planes and missile from China. Because if these Akash missile cant gives confidence to our military planners then whats the use of spending somuch of them to get false sense of safety!!
To ANON@June 28, 2020 at 8:30AM: VMT, but you will notice that I had already answered your query on June 28, 2020 at 3:15AM. The two newly-built helipads can clearly be seen in the satellite imagery & there’s no nheed to doubt it. But that same NN videoclip’s contents need to be understood, especially what the two retired IA officers were saying, i.e. what needs to be understood here is that the IA-PLA mortal combats of June 15/16 was the culmination of decades of utter frustration, rage & anger within the officer & rank-and-file cadre of both the IA & ITBP over the degree of ambiguity imposed by successive Govts of India on the status of the LAC. Would you ever send a fully armed patrolling party to patrol an area based purely on a hunch or perception? What if that patrolling party gets ambushed or captured? And here we have the likes of Shiv Shankar Menon, Gen Bipin Rawat & Lt Gen Narsimhan explaining away the LAC as being just a concept, perception, etc etc. Do they mean to say that the men of the IA & ITBP are expected to lay down their lives for a mere abstraction??? In any self-respecting country by now, the NSA, Defence Secretary, CDS & Secretary of R & AW would have tendered their resignations. Instead, the decision-makers of the day are resorting to PERCEPTION MANIPULATION by creating a narrative about India building up strong defences AFTER the damage has already been done, with nothing being done so far to undo the damage. This indeed is a far-cry from the days of Gen K Sundarji when, within 48 hours of the the detection of the PLA’s presence, a strong & overwhelming counter-manoeuvre was carried out at the heights of Zimithang & Wangdung back in 1986, with the disengagement & de-escalation beginning six months later & ending by 1993.
You will get further evidence of the frustration & rage of the Ladakhis in these 2 videoclips & Col (R) Sonam Wangchuk also explains what led to Col Babu deciding to engage in mortal combat:
Ladakhi Herders: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ4ciyYZuxQ
Col (R) Sonam Wangchuk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OAzZ5uUWpU
To KAUSTAV: A minor correction: the PRC loses loses face because it has been hyphenated with the world’s totalitarian dictatorships like the ones prevailing in North Korea, Cuba & Venezuela. India on the ither hand is a leading member of the League of Democracies. And the best way of imposing costs on China is via Pakistan, i.e. my enemy’s friend is also my enemy. So, hopefully, the horizontal escalation by the IA/IAF combine across the LoC to the north & west will soon commence by resorting to vertical envelopment (heli-borne) tactics. And the icon to be used from then on wonlt be smileys, but this:
https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.1000870930.8011/st,small,507x507-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.jpg
To VINEET KUMAR: Well, if you are of the view (as I am) that no one is perfect, then here’s what we can infer: 1) His claims & predictions of China’s overwhelming superiority in cyber & space warfare have yet to be proven true. In fact, to me such claims are highly over-exaggerated. 2) Escalation is too broad a term to be used & we need to get into specifics here. Yes, vertical escalation against the PLA is possible but is prohibitive in terms of both cost & lives & is therefore not reqd at all. Instead, horizontal escalation (of the type I had described/proposed above) is 100% possible & most desirable. To every discerning person well-versed in politico-military affairs, it is 100% evident that China has already achieved what it wanted to as of now & has no reason to escalate at present & this explains its rather limited build-up of military forces along the LAC. In fact, only PLAGF Brigades, not Divisions, have been forward-deployed & this certainly is not enough to overcome the formidable Indian military presence that has been built up inside Ladakh & northern J & K UTs since 2014. So, we can conclude from the above that the PLAGF has decided to dig-in & consolidate its presence on a permanent basis & all the tentage one sees in satellite imageries is not for combat personnel, but for the PLA Construction Corps personnel who are now feverishly building permanent buildings & fortifications in both the Galwan River-Valley & the area between Finger-8 & Finger-4.
But what he & I have been red-flagging has so far not been taken seriously, which is, China way back in 2009 had officially announced to the whole world that it considers the entire Ladakh to be disputed territory & consequently Ladakh is not an integral part of India. Hence, what China has been doing since then is to steadily advance towards its declared & stated objective, i.e. to gobble-up the whole of Ladakh in due course of time (perhaps by 2025). Despite this, no one is India seems to be reading the writing on the wall, no ‘desi patrakaar’ is bothered about this 2009 declaration, and no Indian MP is asking in Parliament what is India’s answer to China’s 2009 declaration. Instead, everyone is niow going into a tizzy about what is the LAC, where is the LAC, whether it is to the left, right, centre, above, below, whether it exists & if so in what form, whether it is an imaginary line, or a perception/abstraction etc etc. Its is indeed a most surreal environment prevailing today, as if everyone has gone into a collective denial wishing that the worst will be only a dream & will never materialise. To me & to every common-sensical person, this is a sure recipe for the worst disaster that now awaits us in the years ahead, unless corrective action via horizontal escalation via vertical envelopment is unleashed NOW!!!
What the fuck is India waiting for? The neighbour to the west has already opened the floodgates for India, thanks to its ‘selected” PM 3 days ago declaring that OBL was a martyr. Do you reckon any country other than China will shed crocodile tears for a Pakistan that will be grievously wounded by an enraged India???
To SANGOS: Does that make any difference along the LAC in Ladakh, since all the deployed formations there have come not from TAR but from Xinjiang? Does TAR have any dedicated air bases with HAS? If not, then will the PLAGF be stupid enough to unleash its 200,000 personnel against the IA along the LAC in any sector when it fully knows that the IAF will enjoy total air supremacy by dint of sheer numerical superiority? Therefore, figures of 200,000 or even 500,000 don’t mean anything at all unless they are capable of undertaking joint warfare through effects-based operations in a knowledge-based warfare environment. Hence, the lesser anyone mentions mentions such figures without contextualisation, the better, because such claims are highly insulting to any common-sensical individual, wouldn’t you agree?
To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Arey Bhaya, Why are you so over-eager to get yourself ambushed? Why do you want to follow the late Sushant Singh Rajput’s footsteps? I had already issued a Red-Flag to you yesterday with this: 7) Who says there’s a road through the Karakoram Pass? What’s the name of that road? Are you ASSUMING that the KKH passes through the Karakoram Pass? If yes, then I’m afraid you’re as dumb as this ‘desi’ patrakaar’ who is claiming that the KKH passes through the Shaksgam Valley when the map directly behind him shows the KKH well to the west if the Shaksgam Valley (i.e. that imbecile does not know the difference between the Trans-Karakoram Tract & Shaksgam Valley):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXpi6f_3NE0
It now seems that you have still chosen to jump into the abyss. The above videolink clearly shows that that the KKH (whose videolink you have shared) DOES NOT pass through the Karakoram Pass. Instead, the KKH passes through the Khunjerab Pass further to the west. So why have you ASSUMED that the KKH passes through the Karakoram Pass? Is it because both use the word ‘Karakoram’? Clearly by now should have accepted (due to my repeated reminders) that ASSUMPTION IS ALWAYS THE MOTHER OF ALL FUCK-Ups. So, for the last time, here are the coordinates of the Karakoram Pass, & the Khunjerab Pass through which the KKH passes:
Karakoram Pass: 35 30 47.61 N, 77 49 25.05 E
Khunjrerab Pass: 36 50 59.71 N, 75 25 41.89 E
Now kindly go to GoogleEarth & insert those coordinates into the Search-Box to find out where the 2 different locations are geo-located. And why should the IA march all along the Saltoro Ridge right up to Indira Kol & then venture downwards? Can’t a heli-borne air-assault Battalion of the IA be airlifted & dropped into the Karakoram Pass, just like the conduct of OP Meghdoot back in April 1984? So, please try your level-best in taxing that Almighty-gifted brain (hardware)/intellect (software) of your’s, lest the Almighty take offense & seek retribution from you in any unimaginable/unforeseen manner.
To ARUN: There are several passes on both sides of the LoC in both J & K UT and in PoK. But the passes astride Poonch & Uri are of special significance to both Pakistan & India. For the former, Poonch has great sentimental value because of the Muslim-led rebellion of 1946 against the then Maharaja of J & K in which the Muslims were butchered in communal pogroms. You can read all about the history of J & K in this book:
https://www.amazon.in/Kashmir-Untold-Story-Unwritten-History/dp/935029897X/ref=pd_bxgy_img_2/258-2358127-5478002?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_i=935029897X&pd_rd_r=4525115a-e37e-4f41-89ad-18fe74540d5b&pd_rd_w=Nqzmw&pd_rd_wg=SSdUZ&pf_rd_p=70fcfe6a-f935-4c7d-81d2-08d67d916211&pf_rd_r=441F7N2G2NT8B26ZMNJ1&psc=1&refRID=441F7N2G2NT8B26ZMNJ1
For India, Haji Pir has great significance because it was captured at great cost by the IA in August 1965, but had to be returned in 1966. Hence, the recapture of Haji Pir will act as a great morale-booster for the IA. 5) Since Dansum is the HQ of the PA’s 323 Brigade, its capture or even siege will cause the PA to totally withdraw from Goma. Even now, the PA is not even close to the Siachen Glacier, but is 26km to the west of the Glacier.
To ANT: The reason the PLAGF has Motorised Divisions under the WTC’s Xinjiang Military Command is due to to the excellent network of roadways built throughout Xinjiang & this in turn is due to the WTC’s need for quick-reaction forces in case of any domestic instability (like civil war) within any of the neighbouring Central Asian Republics. And that’s why against the LAC, the PLAGF has brought tracked armoured vehicles & self-propelled howitzers.
To KAUSTAV: LoLz! Why then couldn't create PPP for the Tejas Mk.1s & Mk.1As & the projected MWF? Why wait for the AMCA? This is what I call rehearsing for the sprint when even the baby-steps haven't yet been initiated.
Meanwhile, China has started erecting BOUNDARY PILLARS along its unilaterally defined LAC:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbkoX8TU8AEA91O?format=jpg&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbkoYGCUwAQHjBv?format=jpg&name=small
And here's the 21st centiry PLA Signals learning how to do messaging with Morse-Code:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu-LYZH79pQ
So, good luck with the much vaunted 'quantum computing'.
Prasunda
That's it! The entire interview of the HAL MD is riddled with such inane bullshit. Everything from PPP, which should be a functioning reality but isn't because of lack of tools, skills, numbers, orders, money, technology (name it) to a rehash of the MMRCA contest, which isn't going to be repeated obviously for at least 3 good reasons - results known, the world already thinks Indians are dunces or raving lunatics when actually after 12 years of that IAF actually knows what it wants as do the sellers. So why doesn't HAL get down to making the LCA Variants in good numbers (400+) & faster thus through this PPP creating a viable aviation MIC instead of talking outright NONSENSE such as non-viable ORCA or TEDBF or that AMCA which is still very much a research project & pie in the sky?! IT'S HAL THAT NEEDS TO BE SOLD OFF RATHER THAN REFORM OFBs...BAH what downfall of a Company which could have been a Aviation Behemoth manufacturing a variety of Combat Aircraft, Helicopters & Transport Aircraft, had it not started license manufacturing or had it not been taken over earlier by the Govt. But then that's the sorry state of Socialist India not just HAL PSU!
India can hold off PRC, but if it can't change using common sense & sound business models, we might as well either join the BRI or become a total free market economy with all it might entail.
Prasunda
https://youtu.be/gvEoAVCwftQ
That's the first part of that interview by HAL CMD, which focuses on the Helicopter division & picks up on the Naval Utility Helicopter version of Dhruv controversy as well as the AMCA type pie-in-the-sky IMRH. It showcased all that is wrong with HAL poor customer relations, take it or leave it attitude coupled with lack of understanding. The PPPs are always in the future, the orders already tied up but not a care why the captive customers are on edge & hesitant, even on the LCH. It pisses me off no end 😠. Sorry for the earlier rant about joining the BRI though but seriously, the GOI needs to butt out of everything except governance
Hi prasun
in a video of ghatak jawans i saw they they were using a different type of ak 47.
It had integrated picatinny rauils and a western type adustable but stock with cheek piece. what model is it .? it deos not seem to be the later ak 203 as well ?.
I saw a video where the chinese have adopted the 7.62 round as well for the future they hav copied the belgian SCAR. has it been inducted in numbers?
will the chinese martial art trainers make a difference on the front ?. i for one know it takes a long time ie 6 months at least to have mind set and acquire body mind coordiantion.having dabbled in it, in my younger years.
you also mentioned that the rafale cant be used unless the TACDE wrote the SOP. BUt as i recollect the pilots have been sent to france for training are already combat pilots who have flown other fighters so employing the rafales in the front line wont be a problem .??
the chinese have aksai chin ok . but apart from having more real estate , the area is very hostile for human habitation > are there any mineral there?.
why is srilanka asking india to recast is debt schedule and india it seems to be hesitant ? will they not go to the chinese again and fall into their debt trap further .?
Is it true that bangladesh and burma have agreed to let the chinese warships and submarines dock? ie submarines and warships?
The burmese cocos island north of andamans is a staging post or a elint post ? if so when ever there is activity we can always jam the waves with a jammer aircraft placed in between the island and the main land india ? dont you think after what has happend we have to be more agresive ? is it a fair game to destroy the facility in case of war?
HI prasun
As a ham radio operator i still think morse code has a part to play when shit hits the fan .The bandwith is so narrow and the efficiency of CW with out a carrier is so high that we use it when there is too much solar activity where SSB and AM dont travel much on a given freqeuncy. Personaly i believe it still has a role to play. The PEP of the signal is much more as well.
I hope you will pardon my love for morse cose as i spent a lot of time , energy and cursing trying to prepare for my advanced license!! which i got thru 35 years ago!!
Hi Prasunda,
Refer: https//twitter.com/Chellaney/status/1277478175686025217?s=19
The Chinese seem to have encroached upon even the area where the fateful clashes took place between IA and PLAGF PLUS Depsang Bottle Neck. They are erecting permanent structures on these with an aim to stay here forever and now lays claim to the whole of Galwan Valley. Meanwhile, Modi seems to have given a free hand to the PLAGF by insisting on de-escalation on the part of Indian Forces and formally stating that no Indian territory was lost or captured, thereby rescinding on India's territorial claims.
Also, if China wants to go to war with us in 2024-25, I am not sure how and why they would do so without an assured victory. It's foolish otherwise, and Chinese are not known to make such foolish strategic gamble.
If we did have any military advantage there is no reason for us to not escalate and capture some real estate deep inside Chinese claim lines especially when the prevailing global mood is as negative and hostile towards China. The fact that we have not done so probably means we can't afford it.
Regards,
Avishek
Prasunda,
1) Has PLA deployed any MBTs opposite Depsang/DBO ? You had earlier said that they had not done so north of Demchok.
2) The 2019 DRDO techfocus says that production of Pinaka MBRL regiments 5 to 10 is expected to begin after contracts are finalized. By when will these regiments be inducted ?
3) The same issue says that IA will induct 22 regiments of Pinaka. When will that be achieved ?
Ashwatthama
@prasun da
yes indeed i mixed up the karakoram kunjareb but the fact remains if India has to stake claim over Trans Karakoram Track / Shaksgham Valley IA will have to launch heli borne vertical envelop campaign to captuure this road to stop traffic on that road,
one route is towards skardu, second is down from siachen / saltoro and third north from indira col bcoz its very near to Sia Kangri, the tri junction of india, Gilgit Baltistan and Trans Karakoram Track / Shaksgham Valley, as such a very imp. feature to stake ownership.
btw heard these how much true
1. USA has or will supply a complete THAAD system in 15 days
2. Israel will supply a in use Air defense sysatem, which one
3. France will supply more Rafales next month may be 8 total
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
VMT. Yes it makes perfect sense. The Ex Captain also tries to put down the IA as being 'untrained/ill equipped' to fight at high altitudes. Now that I know is a blatantly lie as the Chinese themselves grudgingly admitted to the capabilities of our Mountain troops. I think rather than play devil's advocate the author seems to be peddling falsehoods for reasons best known to him.
Prasun,
1-Pakistani SC mandating general elections in Gilgit baltistan & PoK? next year.. what are the implications & how should it be stopped...they r trying to give it a democratic facade by having a rigged election
Prasunda, this report says that the Indian SF intends to procure the following small arms:
715 Mk 48 Light Machine Guns (LMGs),
1,050 FN Scar (H) 7.62×51 assault rifles,
1,400 FN Scar (L) or HK-416 assault rifles,
110 .50 Cal Browning heavy machine guns (HMG),
400 helmet-mounted night vision systems,
600 combat free fall parachutes,
100 Barret M107 A1 heavy sniping rifles
All of these will probably have to be imported from the US. Will the US be able to send all these weapons to India within a short period of time?
https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/more-firepower-for-indian-army-to-buy-small-arms-for-special-forces-from-us-based-company/2007444/
Thanks
Prasan da,
Are you still holding your guns on possible IAF/IA plan to attack POK coming aug -sep period? Based on any new developments.
Hi Prasun,
Could you provide information about changes brought by Gen K Sundarji in IA? I have read different articles where people either like or dislike him for his flamboyance. The current border issue with china exposed india's leadership issues at top level of IA, since current IA\IAF leadership team could not respond like Gen Sundarji. In 1967 when Sagat singh gave response similar to 1986 without his senior's approval, why can't current divisional\corp commander could respond immediately now?
To KAUSTAV: There is only 1 option now left on the table: privatise HAL. Everything else has been tried & has failed to produce the desired result. And as for the standoff, here are the latest findings:
https://thewire.in/security/china-redrawing-lac-ladakh-1960-claim-line
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WizK6_i7V0A&t=19s
And here are ALL the Latitude-Longitude coordinates clearly mentiojned in the joint study of 1960:
http://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/OR_Part_1.pdf
To RAD: Those are likely to be the Trichy SLRs. When it comes to combat flying, it is NEVER about individual flying skills, but about tactics, which in turn depend on the hostile air-defence environment, among other parameters, which can’t be replicated in any foreign country, such as instrumented EW ranges & rangeless air combat training. So, tactics is all about various types of combinations of both platforms & networks & obviously one cannot expect France to develop such combinations on its soil. It is like claiming that a person with driver’s licence can easily start driving on the F-1 race-track. Aksai Chin hosts the G-219 Highway connecting TAR with Xinjiang & hence China wants to keep India away as far as possible from that highway, lest India is able to interdict by land. Nor are there any ELINT/SIGINT/EW installations at Myanmar’s Cocos Island. You yourself can check it out by browsing through GoogleEarth Pro.
To AVISHEK: Kindly read & watch these:
https://thewire.in/security/china-redrawing-lac-ladakh-1960-claim-line
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WizK6_i7V0A&t=19s
To ASHWATTHAMA: 1) Not yet. 2) By next year. 3) Only after the IA decides to decommission its existing BM-21 Grad MBRL R$egiments.
To JOYDEEP GHOSH: There’s absolutely no need to walk down from Siachen for the sake of going somewhere else. 1) Not true as yet. 2) Barak-8 MR-SAM for IAF. 3) 6 confirmed, but may end as 7 by next month.
To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Those are just enough for a Battalion, i.e. for one of the 3 Battalions making up the SFF.
To PARO: Holding guns isn’t my job. Supplying targetting coordinates is.
To PSS: He ushered in the era of mechanised combined-arms warfare, to cut a long story short. After all, he remained as COAS of the IA for only 814 days.
Dear Prasun,
What are the options left with GoI to save the sovereignty of India?
Prasunda,
VMT. So 6 reginents= 108 launchers and supporting eqpt. of Pinaka would be produced and inducted by end 2021 ? That seems unusually fast by our standards.
Ashwatthama
Sir
Is c 130j Hercules gunship useful for our forces. If yes than in what kind of ops
Jb
https://m.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/behind-massive-build-up-at-lac-is-the-iafs-never-seen-before-airlift-capability-106054?__twitter_impression=true
Sir will India go for more as american lift capability is providing air force much needed strength..
If cost matters then as u suggest India should go for war reserved american stock or used aircraft..
How you see Indian economy ..Will it take long time to bounce back ..
Sir looks like Pm is only looking for self satisfying goal without concrete on the field with his every speech on ladakh crisis.
How you see Mike Pompeo the secretary of state is giving daily dose of fiery statement against CPC
They seem to target CPC as culprit not as china as state..
https://theprint.in/opinion/shut-up-put-up-chinese-companies-in-india-galwan-crisis-continues/451008/
How far India U.S.A and europe can hurt chinese economy .....
Dada,
1. Global Times flaunts in an article PLA is testing/ practising hand held Rail Gun just like a rifle. Can you share your opinion on veracity of Chinese claim on miniaturization of Rail Gun?
2. Same article also vaunts PLAN of equipping Type 055 DDG with Rail Gun. Can you share your thoughts please?
3. How much DRDO has progressed in the realm of Rail Gun development?
4. Apart from SAAW, will any missile be mated with EMP warhead? I am raising this question because SAAW needs to delivered via an aircraft vis a vis a missile.
5. Has DRDO developed any thermobaric bomb like MOAB or FOAB?
6. Is PLA light MBT Type 15 at all useful weapon considering 105 mm Gun and light armour fir protection?
7. If Type 15 MBT turns out to be a useful weapon system in mountainous terrain warfare, is DRDO working on such a light MBT?
Hi Prasunji,
I watched an interesting video from a famous defence journo in the link below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=i7je--u5FkM&feature=emb_logo
1. HAL chief claiming that, they will produce AMCA prototype by 2026-27. I think we would be lucky even if a fully operational LCA MK1A comes up by that time.
2. He was also claiming that HAL will produce a prototype of LCA Mk2, TEDBF & AMCA every 3-4 years. Is it really possible for an organization which couldn't make LCA in 3 decades ?
3. Do we really have money & resources for these different kinds of aircraft programs ? Is Mr. Madhavan that delusional or was he deliberately stating fake timelines ?
Thanks & Regards,
MG6357
Hi Prasun,
Could india develop next version of Arjun tank with auto loader rather than importing T90 and save dollars?
Hi Prasun
i feel that we need a proper military policy which should based on our current threats and which can modified as per future scenarios and threats. These should be based on properly financed think tanks or advisors who can analyse the current and future scenarios and prepare contingencies that can prevent and face them.These policies should not change as per political changes as the US does since they have the resources and means to change their tune as they wish.
I know you would say it is common sense that can save us but looks like individualistic policies and party policies have been governing our foreign and military policies till now.
The enemies who we face both pakistan and china have clear cut objectives and game plan to achieve it and while we have been dilly dallying (appeasement) to our enemies and government controlled defense establishments. Oh i forgot the pr stunts that fool the current constituents of the governing party to keep them happy as the all previous governments have done Barred a few.
Sorry to be pessimistic but india will always fight at backfoot and unprepared, only at WAR times will we wake up from our slumber and do some jugaad ( which is our national pride ) and lose our boys in the field.
Thank you for replying for my previous post. I have been following your blog for some time but feel i have to comment when necessary. Thanks for your insight and guidance.
Regards
Remo
To ASD: With each passing day, the options are decreasing. The 1st option was always a counter-occupation within 6 hours of the PLA launching its tactical occupations in the 3 areas of Galwan, Gogra/Hot Springs & Panggong Tso. But for this to happen, the IA/IAF combine would have had to have wargamed such contingencies & such wargaming can only be done on National Wargaming Simulation Centres of the kind India has not yet bothered to create. So now you know why such centres are imperative in the 21st century. The 2nd option is to undertake assymmetric horizontal escalation via vertical escalation, i.e. attacking & capturing territory within PoK with a 1-week period. Time for that too is fast running out. If delayed any firther, India’s problems will only increase, as explained below:
With PLAGF and Indian Army troops eyeball-to-eyeball at seven places inside India’s claimed territory in Ladakh and Sikkim, the PLAGF has begun stepping up activity opposite Arunachal Pradesh as well. PLAGF troops there are reinforcing their posts in large numbers, increasing their patrolling and stepping up violations of the LAC, which in Arunachal Pradesh runs along the McMahon Line. The two sectors that are seeing the most PLA activity are Tawang and Walong. In the former, PLA patrols have come right up to India’s Dhola/Old Khinzemane Post on two occasions, and accosted the Indian Army troops there. Khinzemane is right on the McMahon Line and was the point at which the Dalai Lama entered India after escaping from Lhasa in March 1959. It is also located close to the Namka Chu River, where the PLA launched the 1962 war with their massed attacks. Also in the Tawang sector, the PLA has reinforced its base camp at Tsona Dzong, the main Tibetan border town located across the McMahon Line from Tawang. In the Walong sector, which is at the easternmost tip of India, there has been aggressive activity from PLA-BDR patrols at the Indian post of Kibithoo. The PLA patrols, which have been coming right up to Indian claim-line of the LAC, are far more frequent and now include more than 40 soldiers in each—almost twice the number in normal times. The PLA camp at Old Tatu, across the border from Kibithoo has also been heavily reinforced. There are also heavy reinforcements being moved to Rima, the border town across the McMahon Line from Walong.
Cont’d below…
There is also aggressive PLA activity in the Asaphila sector, which the PLA attacked and captured in the 1962 war. Over preceding days, there were multiple PLA incursions across the McMahon Line. The PLA has also established temporary camps, just across the border from the Kepang La and Sying La passes. In the Upper Siang border district, where the Yarlung Tsangpo River flows into India and becomes the Siang, and then the Brahmaputra, there have been a large number of border transgressions in recent days. India is assessing whether the PLA is reinforcing the sector to guard against the eventuality of an Indian offensive attack, or whether the PLAGF has plans to occupy Indian territory as it did in Ladakh. While there has been no occupation of Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh yet, the Indian Army is taking the PLA activity seriously. In Ladakh, in April, the Indian Army misread PLA activity as routine training. It is determined not to make the same mistake in Arunachal Pradesh. The seven areas in Ladakh that now have PLAGF troops squatting on India-claimed territory are: Bottleneck, Jeevan Nullah and the Y-Nullah in the in the Depsang Bulge area; Patrolling Point PP-14 in Galwan; PP-15 and PP-17 at Gogra Heights/Hot Springs; and the north bank of Panggong Tso Lake up to Finger-4.
And here are the coordinates for spotting the sites using GoogleEarth Pro:
IA Dhola (Old Khinzemane) Post: 27 49 6.72 N, 91 40 32.33 E
PLAGF Garrison at Tsona Dzong: 27 59 56.39 N, 91 57 36.92 E
Kibithoo: 28 18 16.79 N, 97° 1 26.63 E
PLA-BDR Post North of Kibithoo: 28 21 17.01 N, 97 0 47.93 E
PLA-BDR Barracks North of Kibithoo: 28 22 22.84 N, 97 0 51.36 E
PLAGF Administrastive Base North of Kibithoo (Old Tatu): 28 27 12.09 N, 97 2 30.19 E
Diqing Shangri-La Airport: 27 47 25.73 N, 99 40 54.53 E
PLAGF Garrison at Rima, Baxoi County, Chamdo Prefecture: 30 12 34.35 N, 97 17 45.47 E
Kepang La Pass: 29 9 0.12 N, 94 58 31.63 E
Sying La Pass: 29 9 16.61 N, 95 3 4.97 E
PLA-BDR Garrison North of Upper Siang: 29 14 35.77 N, 95 10 5.67 E
To ASHWATTHAMA: Only 4 Regiments have been ordered, whereas six more remain to be ordered. Details are here:
http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/10/m982-excalibur-gps-guided-cargo.html
To UNKNOWN: Only if such aircraft have to in uncontested airspace. Such platforms won’t survive in airspace in which a hostile air force is active.
To BUDDHA: I have explained this many times before, i.e. what’s required for offensive operations over high-altitude plateaux.
To AD: 1) Then why were such weapons not employed on June 15 at the Galwan River-Valley? 2) Such weapons are still decades away from service-induction. 3) No such project exists in India. 4) No. Mounting such warheads on long-range missiles is madness. The SAAW is a standoff gliding weapon & hence it does not compromise the launch-aircraft in any manner. 5) No. 6) Only when fighting defensively & that too in urban or semi-urban terrain. 7) Not reqd for India.
To MG6357: Kindly rest assured this CMD will retire in a year or two & everyone will then forget all that he had said. One has seen several such people come & go over the past 2 decades.
To PSS: Any indigenous MBT solution will always be far more expensive than imported MBTs. That’s because the powerpack, turret stabilisation system & thermal imaging cameras are all imported.
I think GoI already made its mind to let go Ladakh to Chini for the time being.
Simply cannot take on chini. completely demoralized all the armed forces, everyone is just looking for some excuses now, hence the cosmetic actions like banning apps.
Dear Prasun,
I'm afraid whether India will take any decision at the earliest. I think our political leadership is determined to give in assuming all the historical mistakes committed.
Can you just conclude that India has lost the game?
The best article I have read in a while re the force restructuting:
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/national-security-military-modernisation-and-budgets-68775/
Would like to know your thoughts for whats been hypothesized, Prasun.
Regards,
BROWN DESI
As per your thought
1 is it possible india can take his complete land in his control?
2 if yes how long it will take to do that?
3 how can we capture our aksai chin back
4 if we can't take our complete land. So which area which is not possible to take back and why?
5 Can we achieve supremacy on china as we achieved on Pakistan? If yes than how?
JB
Prasunda,
There are reports that Pak has moved 20000 troops to Gilgit Baltistan. How true is this? Would this close our chance to gain territories along the LoC ?
Satyaki
Whats govt doing sir?? Is it waiting for winter for the situation to diffuse or the govt doesnt want to initiate kinetic action fearing backlash from china...with no communication from govt.it seems we have given up without even fighting like 1962 hopeless situation...when i visited tawang in 2016 ,locals said our army troops just ran away in 1962 wo even a decent fight ..it seems our condition is same now...who on earth waits for other country permission to undertake patrolling in ones own territory..i mean chinese wont be laying carpet for us
Prasunda,
A PLA mechanized division is said to be opposite Depsang. What armour assets does this have ?
Ashwatthama
Dada,
1. Earlier you mentioned, if impass at Ladakh remains in force till October, India have to launch offensive either at Jelep-La or at Longju Village or towards Thotil Muth for occupying those areas. However, on July 1, 2020 at 5:50 AM you explained to ASD India's options are getting constricted with each passing day. Does that mean India's offensive at Jelep-La/ Longju Village/ towards Thotil Muth would not fructify to capture those land mass?
2. Well, earlier you suggested by 2024 India some way or other would recover PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. My gut feelings suggests if India come out with flying colors in Ladakh crisis, taking back PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan would be cakewalk. However, if India fails to script a favorable outcome of Ladakh crisis, India should forget about PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan and be ready to play a sidekick to China. Am I right in my assessment? Simply put Ladakh crisis is India's make or break moment.
3. Earlier, you highlighted apart from Pangong Tso finger areas, there is no PLA incursion inside Indian side of LAC. However your answer to ASD on July 1, 2020 at 5:50 AM tells a different and shocking story of PLA moved inside of Indian side of LAC at 7 places Depsang being new addition to the list of Galwan, Gogra Heights/ Hotspring, Pangong Tso. Has PLA made these inroads inside Indian side of LAC post 15th June scuffle at Galwan?
4. In response to my query, you clarified mounting EMP warhead to missile doesn't make any sense. Can you please explain the logic behind? I read in few articles by retired IA generals stating PLA IRBM, MRBM with EMP warhead.
5. As you said DRDO is yet to initiate project on Rail Gun, doesn't that mean 10-15 years down the line Indian Defence Force might be on wrong foot for Rail Gun?
6. Shouldn't DRDO work on Thermobaric bomb? It can act as great force multiplier.
7. Based on your response it seems to me Type 15 light MBT will be sitting ducks even in urban warfare in face of a gunship coupled with standoff ATGM like under development SANT. Aren't they?
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/two-us-senators-introduce-legislations-to-strengthen-india-us-defence-ties/articleshow/76705409.cms?from=mdr
Some excerpts:
Washington: Two top senators from the ruling Republican and opposition Democratic parties have introduced legislations to strengthen the India-US defence ties, especially in the area of the fifth-generation fighter aircraft and to accelerate joint research and development in the military field.Moving an amendment to the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) 2021, Senator Mark Warner and Senator John Cornyn asked for assessment from Defence Secretary Mark Esper whether the Israel-US Binational Industrial Research and Development Foundation and Fund provides a model for US-India private sector collaboration on defence and critical technologies.Their legislative amendment asks the Defence Secretary to provide a briefing on joint defence and related industrial and technology research and development and personnel exchange opportunities between the US and India. It also seeks assessment of whether additional funds are necessary for the defence technology and trade initiative for seed funding and personnel exchanges.Senator Cornyn, in another amendment to NDAA, asked the Defence Secretary to provide India a briefing on the fifth-generation fighter jets programme of the US within 180 days of the passage of the legislation.
The amendment seeks a report from the Pentagon to the Congress on the topics covered in the briefing and recommendations for increasing cooperation between the two countries as India develops its own fifth-generation fighter aircraft.Cornyn and Warner have moved another amendment jointly to include India in the list of NATO plus countries like Israel and New Zealand when it comes to exporting top secret American defence technology and equipment to India.Another resolution moved by Senator John Sullivan seeks expansion of defence-specific engagement in multilateral frameworks, including the quadrilateral dialogue among the US, India, Japan and Australia to promote regional security and defend shared values and common interests in the rules-based order.Seeking to pursue strategic initiatives to help develop the defence capabilities of India, the resolution says that the US conducts additional combined exercises with India in the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean and western Pacific regions. The resolution also urges the Pentagon to focus on several priority areas for cooperation, including Air Launched Small Unmanned Aerial Systems, Lightweight Small Arms Technologies, and Intelligence Surveillance, Targeting and Reconnaissance."The US should commend India on its recent, continued, and positive trajectory on decreasing purchases of Russian-made weapons systems and encourage them to be mindful of when considering future purchases of Russian-made systems," Sullivan's amendment said.An amendment to NDAA 2021 moved by Senator Cory Gardner supports India against the Chinese aggression in Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh and says that the two countries should work toward de-escalating the situation along the Line of Actual Control."The expansion and aggression of the People's Republic of China in and around disputed territories, such as the LAC, the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands, is of significant concern," says the amendment.
Your thoughts sir?
To DASHU & ASD: Interesting reads:
https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash/
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2020/06/india-china-border-crisis-beijing-ambitions
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/members-unhappy-over-pakistan-blaming-india-for-karachi-blast-unsc-statement-delayed/story-TC5uhWGps57eHidSGEii4M.html
It is now time that India produced all the ‘Made-in-China’ hand grenades recovered from several slain terrorists within J & K over the past 90 days & asked China for an explanation at the UNSC.
History of China’s Ballistic Missiles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PaAOheEApY
BTW, all the flight-data of missiles launched from Lop Nur & the explosive yield of nuclear warhead explosions were recorded by this device:
https://www.livemint.com/Leisure/3QfYqLadggrbnrn41H0mAJ/The-Nanda-Devi-mystery.html
https://www.livemint.com/Sundayapp/g1GCx9n5O83AqHI4ClJAZP/1965-Nanda-Devi-spy-mission-the-movie.html
https://theprint.in/opinion/when-a-spy-story-from-india-us-mission-during-the-cold-war-spooked-an-iaf-pilot/227212/
To SATYAKI: 20,000 is too small a number & is thereforte intended for providing internal security at Gilgit’s dry-port at Sost. Also, do read this:
https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2020/06/aeroengine-concerns-ukraine-us-china
To ASHWATTHAMA: The PLAGF deployment along the LAC comprises three border-defence companies in Aksai Chin. Two are drawn from the 362nd Border Regiment (Unit 32160) and are located at Fort Khurnak on the north bank of Panggong Tso Lake and at Spanggur Tso Lake to the south. The third is located at the Kongka La Pass near the Indian post at Gogra/Hot Springs, and belongs to the 363rd Border Regiment (Unit 69316). There is also a patrol boat squadron on Panggong Tso Lake itself. At establishment, these units would amount to around 500–600 personnel. Under the circumstances, additional forces–drawn from one or both of their parent Border Defence Regiments’ operational reserves–have also been deployed to the area, raising the total PLA border forces in the area to 1,000–1,500 personnel. In addition, the PLAGF has mobilised additional conventional combat forces from the 6th Mechanised Infantry Division. This formation is based at Heitan (Hotan), far to the northwest, on the southern boundary of the Taklamakan Desert, but constitutes the Southern Xinjiang Military District’s primary operational reserve. The Regiment of PLZ-45 155mm/45-cal tracked SPH & a regiment of ZTZ-99A MBTs now deployed 22km to the east of gthe Depsang Bulge belong to this Division.
To AD: 1) With each passing day, more time is being given to the PLAGF to consolidate where it already is, plus time to bring in additional reinforcements. 2) Not the whole of PoK, but only Haji Pir Pass & the stretch of area in Baltistan that I had explained before. Whole of PoK can’t be captured in 1 campaign season. 3) The PLAGF has moved into areas ‘claimed’ by India. Those areas never had a permanent 24/7 Indian presence. 4) For the PLARF such missiles are reqd since the PLAAF does not have deep-penetration strike aircraft capable of terrain-avoidance flight profiles. That is not so for India, since the IAF has combat aircraft capable of adopting terrain-avoidance flight profiles. 5) Yes, but by then EMRGs developed by BAE Systems will be available for import as much cheaper options. 6) DRDO has already developed both thermobaric 120mm projectiles as well as warheads. It is all explained here:
http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/10/from-prithvi-to-pralay.html
7) Even for the T-72CIA & T-90S, the ZTQ-105/Type 15 MBT won’t stand a chance. But this is the kind of MBT most desirable for the IA:
Japan GSDF’s Type 10 MBT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnheSlz_igs
Prasunda
Would like to add another article, thanks for your highlighting the fact ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF PRC USING THE BUDDHIST & TIBET EXCLUSIVITY ANGLE as well as provoking Lamas
https://zeenews.india.com/india/china-trying-to-push-two-tibetan-nationals-into-india-for-alleged-anti-india-activities-2292942.html
It would seem PRC is intent on creating a big situation for India
I would like your comments, since all India seems to do is react with some analysts pointing out that PRC is laying a trap.
Prasunda,
How will the T-72CIA and T-90 (if near Depsang) perform against the ZTZ-99A ?
Kritavarma
@ASD Hi
thanks for the concern, i am not at all perturbed by the pin pricks of #KRITAERMA who masquerades as Vasco De Gama on idrw, just wanted to let him know i know his pseudonym
@Prasun da
1. you have said China doesnt want war but why then its bulking up on the LAC, the way i see it after collapse of current round of talks anytime after july 15 could see stsrt of hostilities all along the LAC
2. desperate times call for desperate measures what happened to the 20+ V22 Osprey deal for use by SF battalions
3. i know have you said its not needed but desperate times call for desperate measures, why cant India persuade France to change its laws regarding Mirage 2000 Ns allowing India to get 25 of them
a. the 75 Mirage 2000 Ns capable of delivering nukes have been withdrawn from service in Dec 2017
b. these are kept in reserve as Rafales are now the nuke delivery platforms
c. 25 of them reportedly have flown less than 2500 hrs & around 12 of them have flown less than 1500 hrs of their total service life (6000 hrs)
d. India could acquire them giving express commitment not to use them for nukes but to deliver Brahmos A against China
e. these jets have strengthened fuselage, wings similar to what IAF has asked to be done for 40 Sukhoi 30 MKI (AFAIK only 10 have been done even as final certification for Brahmos A launch as received early 2020)
F. after slight modification these 25 Mirage 2000Ns could be used to carry Brahmos A and later Brahmos A mini
4. what happened to to talk of converting Nyoma ALG into full fledged fighter hub , seems we need to bolster it further with DBO ALG
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
Sir,
1. In one of your previous replies in where you have posted a link to Retd Lt Gen Hs Panag's videos as voices of sanity in which he claimed that India should not retaliate now as china is watching, but india should retaliate later. But now you are claiming that India is soon running out of options as china is sending reinforcements?
2. do you think in Nepal PM oli will be ousted? If so is it India's handiwork? do you think china will let that happen?
3. As you have predicted crackdowns have been made in hong kong, do you think the world will retaliate to this or will it be business as usual because some western firms are keen to maintain their supply chains inside china?
4. WIth regard to PRALAY is Indian army prefering for Iskander type TEL's or ATACMS type TEL?
sir,
5. Do you think pakistan grasped the fact that India issued guidelines for stocking up cylinders for 2 months and taking over schools in ganderbal district which india later withdrew, now pakistan sent 20000 soldiers to loc? are they alarmed? or Pakistan fears India will retaliate for today's terrorist attack in sopore?
Dear Prasun,
You said "It is now time that India produced all the ‘Made-in-China’ hand grenades recovered from several slain terrorists within J & K over the past 90 days & asked China for an explanation at the UNSC."
Do you think that India will do so? The weakness describes everything. Our political leadership lacks guts.
Sir,
1.) Is there any development of artillery round similar to Excalibur being undertaken by DRDO ? Or is the army more interested in guided Pinaka rockets as you explained in a previous thread ?
2.) At what altitude does SAAW has to be released for it to attain its maximum range ? What type of different warheads can it carry ?
3.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zelenopillya_rocket_attack
How effective will rocket artillery be in conflict between India and China. With troops from both sides using narrow and valley roads for movement and logistics would it not be devastating for both sides if such weapons are used like in the above mentioned attack ?
4.) https://youtu.be/8uSVGSNbLjY?list=PLfa0eRI2uIaR1iOJnq7tklxIJDLxTxI5y
What do you think of this assessment ? With all the recent additional purchases of Spice 2000s and Excalibur, fastracking of AAM missiles and stocks for spares and ammunition being increased I am thinking some sort of military operation is being planned. Is any kind of operation even possible in winter or am I expecting too much.
Prasunda,
But the report specifically mentioned that 20000 troops are being sent to the LoC by Pak in Gilgit-Baltistan. Is a two front war planned by the China-Pak axis ?
Satyaki
To KRITAVARMA: The answer is simple: when two battle-hardened countries—Iran & Iraq—wanted to procure MBTs in the previous decade, they both evaluated Russia-/China-origin MBTs & BOTH ordered Russia-origin T-72S MBTs. Hence, we can safely conclude that the ZTZ-99A is an inferior product & countries that have had no experience thus far in fighting armoured battles (like Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Peru etc etc) are the only ones procuring China-origin MBTs. As for the PA, it can be guaranteed that it will never get into any kind of conventional land battle with India after being thoroughly trounced in 1971.
To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Will any army preparing to go into battle concentrate all its forces out in the open in full view of everyone to see? 2) I don’t see anyone getting desperate. 3) Totally worthless & un-commonsensical proposition. 4) Again, a worthless proposition since no sane person will build an air bases at such an altitude. Only 2 Su-30MKIs have to date been modified to carry BrahMos-A.
To BENO: 1) The Lt Gen was referring to direct retaliation against either the entrenched PLAGF or at another place inside TAR. My opinion calls for indirect retaliation by way of crossing ther LoC into Baltistan. 2) It does not matter at all. Let the people of Nepal sort out such matters. 3) The financial crackdowns have already begun & HK SAR will no longer be an offshore financial haven. 4) Nothing can be rushed. This is not a video-game. 5) Those were for the upcoming Amarnath Yatra.
To VSJ: 1) The despatch of 20,000 PA troops to GB is FAKE NEWS. They can go either to Gilgit or to Balistan, so which one will it be? Nor does China have the means to get into a fighting match with India anywhere inside PoK. 2) Only 36 A-100E MBRLs were procured & none were built by anyone in Pakistan. The IA too has only 36 Smerch-M MBRLs.
To ASD: It is a distinct possibility, given the prevailing international opinions against China. I would not like to jump to any conclusions about the Govt of India not exercising any military option across the LoC. After all, August 5 is the 1st anniversary of the revocations of the provisions of Articles 370 & 35A in erstwhile J & K state. Hence, let us wait for a little while longer. In addition, if I were to be the decision-maker, I would ensure that the PA is kept extremely busy along the Duramd Line between now & August 5.
To BHVK: 1) No. 2) Refer to the SAAW’s posters in the DEFEXPO-2020 thread. 3) Rocket artillery is effective only over flat surfaces, i.e. in the plains & plateaux. 4) Highly speculative.
To SATYAKI: Where to? Gilgit, or to Baltistan? That itself makes a huge difference.
To BROWN DESI: Such a topic cannot be explained or assessed in such a short manner. For example, there’s no word about AIRPOWER at all, or the contribution of airpower by the IA, IN & IAF. In the IA’s case, possession of 200 attack helicopters (mix of AH-64Es & LCHs) gives the IA the firepower equivalent to an Armoured Division while at the same time ensuring rapid deployment by air, thereby ensuring secrecy & surprise. Similarly, the use of standoff PGMs like Spice-1000/Spice-2000 & SAAW for knocking out hostile hardened bunkers along the LoC or LAC with the help of manportable laser target designators carried by spcaial forces personnel. Or the use of various types of rocket artillery equipped with either SAR seekers or GPS receivers for terminal homing. For instance, the liquid-fuelled Prithvi SS-150s are long-overdue for replacement & yet the Ptalay SS-BSM remains elusive.
REPUBLIC WORLD TV Unearths from Ladakh (LoLz!) the IAF's Plans For Procuring F-35 JSF From Lockheed-Martin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d5yFZTI08A
Meet the Daredevils of the Ladakh Scouts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSZIydYNI9c
Gautam Bambawale Explains Reasons Behind Ladakh Standoff: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mt3_wn1tG8Q
While This SENILE Patrakaar Gives His Own IDIOTIC Spin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbEztQge0VU&t=28s
Lt Gen Narsimhan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UAdYzzVRtM
https://topcor.ru/15374-pustaja-trata-deneg-turki-nedovolny-zrk-s-400.html
Finally the marriage is over it seems 😜😜
Hi Prasun,
"Have heard from the grapevine that talks have begun between the US & India for the following:
1) ...
2) ...
3) ...
4) Expediting the integration of the EMP warhead-armed SAAW with Mirage-2000Ns, Jaguar IS/DARIN-3s & Su-30MKIs. BDL is ready to series-produce the SAAWs."
Why does the US have to be involved in this integration? SAAW is an Indian-designed glide-bomb, those aircraft are all non-US platforms. Is the EMP warhead itself a US product?
hi prasun
can the spice 2000 be intgrated oin the su 30mki as reports say given the IPR of russia . will it be possible to do it without russian help.
As the spice is programmed before hand the only thing is dropping the bomb as it has its own navigation system and terrian data base?
If the emp SAAW is used can china copy the bomb after it has flown its misison and crashed?
is it true they have moved up their s-400 after we inducted akash ?
has china acquired the later model of r-77 and r-73 like india?.Does the latest r-74 have 2 color IIR like the modern CCM? in that case the lethality of the missile will be great. do they have data link as wester CCM?
reports say that china has alos invested in israel massivlely in infrastructure how far is that true ? do they have hold on israel to stop any arms deal?has israel loaned some spyder units to india?
Has israel supplied military tech to china ? like the radar imaging sat tech. china seems to be good in radar imaging sat as well , where did they get it from?.
do we need more cartosats given the large china border to monitor?
Is there trouble brewing in china against xi?
Prasunda,
What price we are paying for mothballed Mug 29s ? Egypt was the last overseas customer of Mig. They paid around only 2 Billion for 50 Mig 35 with Zuke Aesa.
Best regards.
Re your contention that India has not responded to Chinese assertion that Laddakh belongs to it. This map ratified by parliament is as good as punch to the teeth?
https://images.app.goo.gl/3ftMdnNNFob7ZZQx5
Dada,
1. As you asserted India would import BAE system's EMRG when the same will be ready and permitted for import, does that mean India's dependency on import of defence hardware would never come to an end? This is disappointing indeed. Can you elaborate/ write a thread on transforming DRDO into accountable research and development firm?
2. What about DEW, would India import DEW from foreign country or DRDO is working on DEW?
3. You also mentioned imported EMRG from BAE would be cheaper option. Can you please explain why indigenous EMRG would be costing more?
4. You preferred Deep Strike Aircraft having terrain avoidance flight capability as better option for delivering EMP warhead as opposed to Ballistic Missiles. Can you please explain the rationale? Is it driven by higher CEP of Ballistic Missiles compared to standoff guided bombs?
Prasunda
The obvious queries -
1. What missile is the 1000 km LACM?
Nirbhay, I suppose
2. In addition to purchase & upgrade of 21 Mig29 mention is being made of upgrades to 59 Mig29UPG. What upgrade to UPG? - new engine,
AESA?
All these proposals including that for the purchase of these 33 aircraft (21 Mig29s manufactured to be upgraded to Mig29upg & 12 Su30MKI) hv been in the works for year or more. Nothing concentrates the mind of Babus & Netas than an emergency situation up their collective arses🤣
There r too many news versions of the DAC act doing rounds. Can you give a level headed logical report Sir?
Prasunda,
It seems that some Pak officers are now embedded with the PRC Central Military Commission (these include an ISI officer at the Col./Brig. Level). Does this indicate that moves for a two front assault on us are afoot ?
Kritavarma
To AMIT BISWAS: As is this:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/myanmar-calls-out-china-for-arming-terror-groups-asks-world-to-help/story-fzb8ADXt1VgS9ofZMMWdWO.html
To DILBERT: No one has claimed that US help is reqd for SAAW’s systems integration. Where did you get that from?
To RAD: Since the PopeyeLite/Crystal Maze too is integrated with the Su-30MKI, using the same interface within the Su-30MKI’s weapons management computer can be used for integrating the Spice family of PGMs with the Su-30MKI.
To PARTHASARATHI: They are not MiG-29Bs, but MiG-29SMTs originally destined for Algeria. Had explained it all in March 2019 when the reqmt first arose.
To SANGOS: No, it does not, because China’s map too shows the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as belonging to southern Tibet.
To AD: The SAAW is a form of DEW. DEW is not just about lasers. Energy is also directed via microwave pulses. BMs can be used only once, whereas DPSA platforms can repeatedly launch standoff PGMs.
To KAUSTAV: 1) Indeed it is the Nirbhay. 2) The upgrades refer to the installation of RAFAEL’s BNET-A SDR radios (same as that on Tejas Mk.1A) on all MiG-29UPGs. In addition, existing Su-30MKIs are now getting the R-118/Dhruti radar warning receivers to replace the earlier Tarang Mk.3, plus HAL-developed SDR radios.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/v/s/www.livemint.com/news/india/defence-ministry-approves-procurement-of-21-mig-29-and-12-sukhoi-fighter-jets/amp-11593687266368.html%3famp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%253D#ampf=
Dada so will our Mig 29 Upg get MAWS or now or not? Or just sdr radios?
hello Prasun bhai,
A huge fan of your blog. I admire your tenacity in putting out information and responding to queries. No other strategic expert engages with their audience like you do. Great job.
Now, my questions.
1) What can you reveal about the Spanggur gap and how well is it defended from our side?
There is a substantial build up of PLA forces just 10 kms from the Spanggur gap by the lake. Could be psych ops by PLA to show strength, considering that the commanding offers were talking near by or it could be some sinister design. Is Chushul a sitting duck for PLA attack through the Spanggur gap? What is your take on it?
2) is Chushul airstrip activated? Who controls this landing strip. There is a road going to Chinese side from the building by the airstrip. Also, There are two helicopter landing pads by the airstrip. Are they used by our forces?
Since this airstrip was extensively used in 1962, is there any benefit of this landing strip considering that PLA controls the heights to the EAST and is sitting on top of the airfield?
3) How did the Chinese get inside the Galwan River valley? Considering that the valley is so narrow and through mountain ranges so high, where is their ingress? How did they bring those vehicles inside the valley? Also read in newspapers that they evacuated their injured and dead through helicopter sorties. Where did their helicopters land? did they user our facilities across the Shyokh river?
4) The last question is with regard to Nyoma landing strip? is it activated and what all IAF assets can land there?
thanks,
Rakesh
To SUMIT SEN: No MAWS, only SDR.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/29/retired-and-hurt-pla-veterans-could-become-a-force/
To RAKESH: VMT. It is all about according & reciprocating respect. Not bothering to answer tantamounts to showing disdain & disrespect. Now, to your queries: 1) The Spanggur Gap is best explained here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bS4MYHw8Ns&t=44s
The reason why the PLAGF wants to covet all Fingers of Panggong Tso is because the PLAGF wants to come as close as possible with its mechanised forces to Lukung (33 59 35.86 N, 78 24 48.71 E) & from there access the existing Indian roads all the way westwards to Durbok (34 5 42.83 N, 78 7 2.66 E), with the aim of cutting off access to the DSDBO Road. Similarly, the Depsang Plains enables the PLAGF’s mechanised forces to sprint on flat land westwards towards the Burtse below DBO. The Spanggur Gap refers to a stretch of flat land between two hillocks (Magar Hill & Gurung Hill) that begins from the Spanggur Tso Lake (below Panggong Tso Lake) & goes right up to Chushul. The PLAGF in times if war will use this route to secure the left flank of the main attacking force that will start from Panggong Tso Lake & proceed towards Lukung & then further westwards to Durbok. And that’s why, to blunt such mechanised offensives, the IA has pre-positioned an armoured regiment at Durbok, followed by another 2 armoured regiments at Thangtse & Burtse up north. And these regiments can be backed up by K-9 Vajra tracked SPHs for fire-assaults. 2) The Chushul ALG was activated a long time ago & remains under the IAF’s control. The helipads seen at Chushul-Moldo belong to both the IA & the PLA for access to the Border Management Hut located there. For threatening the ALG, the PLAGF will be reqd to get access to Finger-2 at Panggong Tso Lake. 3) The PLA had been building roads through its portion of the Galwan River-Valley since 2017 & everyone knew about it. 4) Both Nyoma & Fukche ALGs were activated long ago.
And now, the good news: 50 Bde Para from Agra Headed for Ladakh:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJS47jwBn8I&t=358s
SFF Brigade Deployed In Ladakh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wQbq23LbZ0
Looks like the IA indeed is hell-bent upon implementing my suggestion on securing the western flank of the Siachen area by capturing the PA’s logistics bases at Oltinthang (34 57 22.40 N, 76 34 30.07 E), Siari (34 55 58.97 N, 76 37 31.96 E and 34 55 27.33 N, 76 42 17.58 E) & Fraono (34 56 1.40 N, 76 43 38.19 E) all the way to Thang (34 55 32.66 N, 76 47 49.94 E), the last Indian village along the LoC in northeastern Ladakh.
Cant we standardize SDR from same OEM..I mean will it be difficult to integrate BNET A SDR on Sukhoi ??
Prasunda,
I would like to thank you for all the hard work you put in so that we may better understand what is going on in this world.
After following this blog for a long time, I have some conclusions which I want to share with you.
I have come to conclusion that you are already known and very famous in the strategic circles of New Delhi. You have always mentioned that you attends all the defense forces seminars whether they are for industry collaboration or strategic discussions.
I am inclined to think that many of our generals and senior level commanders of all the 3 wings of forces are a regular visitor to this blog. Again this was evident when you did a blog post on current air defenses capabilities of Pakistan and one of the senior commanders of the PAF wanted to remove some of the brochures/ documents which are uploaded on their sites.
Many of the reporters knew you personally and this was clearly evident that how the contents of this blog were plagiarized by a national newspaper. That you call them out periodically here on this blog may have resulted in them not acknowledging the assessments which are offered here on this blog.
Coming to the most tricky part. I am also inclined to think that even the policymakers , senior politicians and bureaucrats know you. Why am I making this assessment. I still remember that you met Dr. Manmohan Singh atleast 3 decades before in Singapore and when you mentioned that Singapore defense budget is one third of Indian defense budget, Dr. Singh flatly refused to acknowledge this fact. Why? Only God or he knows.
Even French and Americans aviation industry expert know you very well. This was well evident that French wanted to understand from you in 80s only that why India is putting all eggs in one basket by purchasing only Russian Hardware. Then again, you were sitting in Boeing's presentation to Royal Malaysian Air Force with RMAF fighter pilots and Boeing's executives.
Now my simple question to you is that if assessments offered here had held the test of time and are mostly true why do successive Indian governments across the political spectrum ignoring them. Do they consider you too much of a straight talker and that's why they ignore you simply because you put out the hard truth which no one is ready to confront.
Best wishes.
Hi Prasun,
"No one has claimed that US help is reqd for SAAW’s systems integration. Where did you get that from?"
I got that impression from your original post, where you said "...talks have begun between the US and India for the following...". But okay, if I got the wrong impression, if US help is not required, it's all good, no worries.
Thanks for replying.
Prasun da, so we are looking forward to capturing most of Ghanche district of Baltistan? What possible resistance can we face from the Pakistani military?
To AMIT BISWAS: Not difficult, but the circumstances that dictate a decision. For example, HAL had already developed the SDR for both Su-30MKI & Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 back in 2011 & hence it was selected for those platforms. For the MiG-29UPG & Tejas Mk.1A, space constraints led to the BNET-A being selected.
To ANIONE: VMT, but then the only answer to that is perhaps the decision-makers have their own list of priorities.
To DILBERT: Yes, I should have separated that last point from the rest & that would have cleared up matters much more.
To PRATAP: It has to be step-by-step process, starting with the Shia-dominated areas of Baltistan whose inhabitants have never harboured any hostility against India & are in fact, all for their human resource development aspirations, which can be met only by being part of India & never under Pakistan's occupation.
Has IA vacated the CI/CT grid of valley, I could see only crpf and jnk SOG taking part in ops since last two weeks??
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