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Wednesday, September 8, 2021

From Regional Strategic Convergence to Regional Strategic Coherence

Back in the decade of the 1990s, it was the combination of India’s financial crisis in mid-1991, followed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) on December 25, 1991, that was responsible for the ouster of Afghanistan’s then President Mohammad Najibullah Ahmadzai (49) on April 15, 1992. Fast forward to today, one is looking at a vastly different geo-political and geo-economic landscape. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$889 million to a lifetime high of US$621.464 billion in the week ended August 6, 2021, while both Russia and Iran along with India have already outlined their grand ambitions about realising the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multi-modal transportation corridor for the purpose of promoting transportation cooperation among its member-states. This corridor connects India Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran, and is then connected to Saint Petersburg and Northern Europe via Russia. The INSTC project was originally decided between India, Iran and Russia in the year 2000 in St Petersburg, and subsequently included 11 other Central Asian and West Asian countries: Azerbaijan Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Belarus, Oman and Syria, with Bulgaria as an observer. It envisions a 7,200km-long multi-mode network of shipping, railway and road routes for transporting freight, aimed at reducing the carriage cost between India and Russia by about 30% and bringing down the transit time from 40 days by more than half. In addition, India wants Iran’s Chabahar Port to be included in the INSTC, and expand INSTC membership by including Afghanistan and Uzbekistan (which has welcomed this offer).

Consequently, it stands to reason that Russia, India, Iran and the Central Asian Republics of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan not only develop strategic convergence, but also quickly move towards strategic coherence for the sake of decisively dealing with the on-going internal turmoil in Afghanistan. The following chain of events in chronological order explains what has been transpiring over the past two months.

Mid-July 2021: The National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRFA) is created in the Panjshir river-valley with the support of Ahmad Massoud, Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, Abdul Rashid Dostum and Atta Muhammad Nur.

Translation: First firm indication of the imminent collapse of Afghanistan’s national unity government led by President Ashraf Ghani.

July 28, 2021: Speaking in Tajikistan’s capital Dushanbe where he met his counterpart Sherali Mirzo, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Russia will bolster Tajikistan’s military with weapons, equipment and training amid a “deteriorating” situation in neighbouring Afghanistan. He added that Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan will hold joint military drills next week near Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan.

Translation: Russia did not buy all the assurances given by both the Taliban and Pakistan about the Taliban’s non-interference in the affairs of its immediate neighbouring countries.

August 17, 2021: Tao days after the bloodless takeover of Kabul by the Taliban, Afghan First Vice-President Amrullah Saleh—citing provisions of Afghanistan’s Constitution—declared himself the Acting President of Afghanistan from his base of operations in the Panjshir river-valley, and said that he would continue military operations against the Taliban from there.

Translation: First signalling by the NRFA to the international community about respecting and adhering to international laws and conventions, which clearly dictate that any new Afghan government that comes into existence through military coercion must not be internationally recognised.

August 17, 2021: Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on National Security (CCNS), which was attended by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla, and India's Ambassador to Afghanistan Rudrendra Tandon, who returned to India on the same day.

Translation: India’s policy and posture WRT the new ground realities in Afghanistan are still in the evolutionary stages and hence a ‘wait-n-watch’ posture was adopted for the time-being.

August 24, 2021: The Kremlin stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the situation in Afghanistan in a phone-call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both expressed the intention to enhance cooperation to counter the dissemination of “terrorist ideology” and the drug threat emanating from Afghanistan, and also agreed to establish a permanent channel for bilateral consultations on developments in Afghanistan.

Translation: By then, extensive parleys had been held by New Delhi, Teheran and Moscow regarding the future courses of action, especially on the need to militarily and financially support the NRFA, while also standing by for providing humanitarian assistance to an Afghanistan that had by then undergoing both economic and financial meltdown.

August 30, 2021: India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar welcomes the Diplomatic Adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, Dr. Anwar Gargash, at Hyderabad House, New Delhi.

Translation: For the first time, the subject of the UAE Air Force’s A330 MRTTs providing aerial refuelling support to the Indian Air Force’s C-17A Globemaster-III transport aircraft while overflying Iraqi airspace (since Iran had refused such overflight permission for IAF aircraft) and en route to Ayni air base in Tajikistan was broached. The UAE agreed to provide such support.

September 3, 2021: China expressed its willingness to extend its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) into Afghanistan, saying that the “Taliban believes” that the initiative is good for development and prosperity in the war-ravaged country and the broader region.

Translation: Clearly sniffing a malicious Sino-Pakistan agenda, Moscow, Teheran and New Delhi agreed that this was clearly a move by China to make the INSTC irrelevant and consequently, began devising politico-military options aimed at ejecting the Taliban through military force throughout northeastern and northwestern Afghanistan.

September 3, 2021: Director of the British MI-6, Richard Moore, made an official two-day visit to India to firm up three executive actions with his Indian counterpart Samant Goel, Secretary (Research) in the Union Cabinet Secretariat (R & AW), in line with the directives of the Prime Ministers of both India and the UK.

Translation: The first executive action called for the MI-6 and R & AW to set up a Joint Working Group (JWG) under which the latter will share with the former data on northern Afghanistan (this is because the UK had over the past 20 years dealt with only matters pertaining to southeast and southwest Afghanistan). Under the second executive action, the UK will tap into the logistics pipeline established between India and Tajikistan for supporting the NRFA. This will later have the option of being expanded, i.e. the UK will be able to operate its MALE-UAVs for ISR missions over northern Afghanistan from air bases approved for such use by Tajikistan. Lastly, the UK, which had since late 2020 wanted to train its fully-funded Afghan-manned Units 333 and 444 in high-altitude irregular warfare, now wants to access the expertise of the R & AW-owned Special Frontier Force (Establishment-22 or Vikas Regiment) and to this end, wanted to institutionalise the sharing of such expertise and experiences. Separately, the UK wants to exfiltrate through Tajikistan the 400 remaining members (and their families) of Unit 333 that are still in hiding throughout northern Afghanistan.

Northern Afghanistan includes the provinces of Baghlan, Balkh, Kunduz, Samangan, Sar-e-Pol, Takhar and Badakhshan. Kunduz province is located north of Kabul and shares an IB with Tajikistan. The province also borders with Baghlan, Takhar, Balkh, Samangan and Badakhshan provinces and covers an area of 7827 sq km. In the northeastern part of Afghanistan, there is the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow panhandle of mountainous territory in the Hindu Kush mountain range, squeezed between Tajikistan to the north and Pakistan-occupied Gilgit to the south, which extends to the grassy valley of the Little Pamir and all the way to Xinjiang. The entire Wakhan corridor was established as Wakhan National Park in 2014. The corridor borders the Pamir mountains to the north and the Karakoram mountain range to the south. In the western part of the strip are some of Afghanistan’s highest peaks, the Kohe Urgunt, the Kohe Shakhawr and the Noshaq Mountain (Naw Shakh). The Noshaq, Afghanistan’s highest mountain and the second highest peak of the Hindu Kush mountain range, is situated on the border between Badakhshan province in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province. The major ethnic groups living in Kunduz province are Pashtuns and Tajiks, followed by Uzbeks, Hazaras, and Turkmen. Gilzhai Pashtuns comprise 33% of the population of Kunduz and are the majority ethnic group in the province. Uzbek people of Afghanistan are found north of the Hindu Kush in Afghan Turkistan. In Afghanistan, they number approximately 1.6 million and comprise around 27% of the population of Kunduz province. Tajiks are a significant minority ethnic group in the province and represent 22% of the population. 11% of the population of Kunduz is classified as ethnically Turkmen, who are another Sunni Turkic-speaking group whose language has close affinities with modern Turkish. They are of aquiline Mongoloid stock. The Hazara comprise approximately 6% of the population. The Pashai represent only 1% of the population of Kunduz province, but are present in small numbers throughout northeastern Afghanistan. The term ‘Pashai’ refers to the language itself, the people who speak it, and the area they inhabit. Pashai speakers live in the area north of the Kabul River, extending about 160km from Gulbahar on the Panjshir River in the northwest to Chaga Serai in the east. The Pashai were members of the classic Gandhara culture and were pushed out of their original homeland in the lowlands into the valleys of the Hindu Kush by an invasion of Pashto-speaking Afghans from the Sulaiman Mountains. There are 11 named mountains to the northeast and southwest of Kunduz province: Koh-e-Seh Talah, Koh-e-Pasrah, Gory Ambarkoh, Koh-e-Chuchal, Koh-e-Qarah Batur, Tash Qutan, Koh-e-Qurtab, Koh-e-Yakah Badam, Koh-e-Zow-e-Zard, Koh-e-Albur, and Koh-e-Sur Baytal. It is there that combatants of the Islamic Jihad Union (Uzbek/Turkish), East Turkestan Independence Movement (ETIM) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) have established themselves and they exercise control over three districts in Kunduz, namely Chahara Darra, Imam Sahib, and Ali Abad. The local political parties active within Kunduz province are the Jamiat-e Islami led by Salahuddin Rabbani, Shuria-e Nazar that was founded by the late Ahmed Shah Masooud, Hezb-e-Wahdat led by Mohammad Karim Khalili, Hizb-e Wahdat-e Islami-ye Mardum-e Afghanistan led by Mohammad Mohaqeq, and the Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin (HiG) led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

September 4, 2021: Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director-General Lt Gen Faiz Hameed arrived at Kabul’s Serena Hotel.

Translation: He had a two-fold agenda: 1) Compelling the Taliban to officially extend support to the BRI and CPEC. 2) As a carrot, offer the Taliban the benefit of offensive airpower against the NRFA forces holed up throughout the Panjshir river-valley.

September 5, 2021: Both the Pakistan Army (PA) and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) activated two static air-defence sites for housing both LY-80E LOMADS and FM-90A SHORADS in Rawalkot and Kotli near the LoC in PoJK. At the same time, the forward air bases at Dalbandin and Shamsi were also activated that day.

Translation: These were pre-emptive precautionary measures aimed at deterring the IAF’s Rafale M-MRCAs and Su-30MKIs from interfering with the PA’s air-to-ground strikes, which were planned for execution on the following day. While Dalbandin was used to ferry members of the Quetta Shura to Kandahar, Shamsi has been/is being used as the ammunition storage warehouse for the Taliban combatants.

September 6, 2021: National Resistance Front (NRF) of Afghanistan's leader Ahmad Massoud claimed in the early hours that Pakistani armed drones were launching precision-guided munitions in the Panjshir river-valley and helping the Taliban to crush the armed resistance. Later that day, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh stated: "We would like to inform our friends, and those who might make the strategic error of entering Afghanistan with different intentions, that Afghanistan is not a country which accepts the enemy or an aggressor on its soil. I strongly warn that all red lines and obligations under international law must be observed. Iran is closely following developments in Afghanistan. Iran considers inter-Afghan talks as the only solution to Afghanistan problem." In the afternoon, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said that the group “desires to join the CPEC”. Mujahid also confirmed an upcoming meeting between Lt Gen Faiz Hameed and Taliban senior leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. After sunset, PM Modi chaired a three-hour meeting of the CCNS in which Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, EAM S Jaishankar, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Gen Bipin Rawat and NSA Ajit Doval. The agenda for discussion was the ongoing situation in Afghanistan and India's future course of action in this regard.

Translation: A synchronised military option involving India and Russia was formally given the go-ahead, with the Indian Army and IAF being given the green-light for expediting their respective taskings.

September 7, 2021: Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Gen Nikolay Patrushev began a two-day visit to India on September 7, 2021 to hold extensive talks with NSA Ajit Doval on the situation in Afghanistan, following its military takeover by the Taliban. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said that Patrushev is expected to call on PM Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. Patrushev is visiting India at the invitation of NSA Doval for high-level India-Russia inter-governmental consultations on Afghanistan.

Translation: Finishing touches were given to the joint Russia-India effort to militarily shore up the NRFA while concurrently finalising details of an announcement regarding the formal recognition to the Afghan government led by Acting President Amrullah Saleh, while denying recognition to any Taliban-instituted interim government for as long as the Taliban’s leaders remain sanctioned by the UNSC.

September 7, 2021: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh approved the expansion of financial powers to India’s three armed services in order to cut delays in making emergency procurements of ‘war-like stores’ for operational preparedness and quickly meet the requirements of the field formations. The delegated financial powers of Vice Chiefs of the three armed services were increased by 10% subject to an overall ceiling of Rs.500 crore. New CFAs have been added, namely the Deputy Chief of Army Staff, Master General Sustenance, ADG (Procurement)/DG Air Operations/DG Naval Operations, etc in the respective Armed Services HQs and in the field formations on account of re-organisation/re-structuring/functional requirements. In addition, a new schedule on the hiring of aircraft and associated equipment was introduced for the Indian Air Force (IAF), which included the hiring of air-to-air refuellers (that have been offered by the UAE Air Force). Also, the financial powers of Chief of Integrated Defence Staff to the Chairman Chiefs Of Staff Committee (CISC) as CFA has been enhanced substantially and aligned with that of the three Vice Chiefs.

Translation: Such funds will be utilised for procuring weapons from Russia, Serbia and Bulgaria for use by the NRFA, and for storage at Ayni air base in Tajikistan and possibly Termez Airport in Uzbekistan. In addition, Russia, India and Iran will financially contribute towards the MRO requirements of all those Afghan Air Force Mi-17s and Mi-25s that had escaped to Termez Airport in Uzbekistan, and towards the upkeep of the Afghan special operations force personnel who were trained by the US and the UK for conducting irregular warfare against the Taliban since 2007 and the bulk of whom have either joined the NRFA or were evacuated by air by the US and UK between August 16 and 31. It may be recalled that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had begun raising and fully funding four Counter-Terrorist Pursuit Teams, institutionalised with the acronym CTPT, since 2007. By 2010, this force numbered 3,000. Their mission was to hunt and kill “terrorists.” In 2015, the CIA helped its Afghan counterpart, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), to take command and control of these units for targetting combatants aligned with the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (IS-WK) who were active in the Kunar and Nangarhar provinces of Afghanistan. The four units numbered NDS-01, NDS-02, NDS-03 and NDS-04, with each having a regional area of operation: NDS-01 operated in the Central Region, NDS-02 in the Eastern Region, NDS-03 in the Southern Region, and NDS-04 in the North. All of them existed in a regulative twilight zone and each of the four units had 1,200 combatants. The UK on the other hand raised two units since late 2001—Unit 333 and Unit 444. These units comprised 7% of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), but conducted 80% of the fighting.

September 7, 2021: Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns was in New Delhi on a two-day visit to discuss a number of issues arising from Afghanistan. 

Translation: Foremost, under instructions from the Biden Administration, the CIA wants to transfer from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan all the Afghan Air Force fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft that had defected in mid-August. Next, the CIA will fully finance the task of restoring the serviceability of all such aircraft. Following that, the CIA wants India to provide product-support for all the Russia-origin platforms like Mi-17s and Mi-25s by sourcing their rotables and consumables from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, and also providing IAF ground service crew-teams to ensure the helicopters’ continued serviceability. This is because post-April 2014 (when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine), US laws have prevented US-based MRO contractors from having any business dealings with Russia-based OEMs and since then the US has been funding the procurement of product-support for all Afghan Air Force Mi-17s and Mi-25s via India, i.e. the IAF procured the spares from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine and then handed them over to the Afghan Air Force and in return got paid by the US under a government-to-government arrangement.

By any measure, the Afghan Air Force on paper is far more capable than the deteriorating, 20-aircraft force of 2007. By 2019, about 265 US-trained Afghan pilots flew 118 aircraft supplied by the US. The fleet was then projected to double by 2023. In June 2019, Afghan pilots flew their first night-attack missions and conducted the first combat airdrop. In March 2020, it fired its first laser-guided bomb in combat, with 600 more fired since. In July, the United Nations said that the Afghan Air Force had been responsible for 52% of civilian casualties caused by air-strikes in the first half of 2018. However, of the 47 Mi-17s assigned to the Afghan Air Force, only 20 were operational in 2018. Mi-17s flew half the fleet’s 28,000 sorties in 2018, but the first S-70 Black Hawk did not fly until May 2019. The plan to provide 81 Black Hawks will not be complete until 2030. According to Afghan pilots, the Mi-17s are more powerful, but the Black Hawks are more manoeuvrable and have performed better in dusty landing zones.  The Mi-17 is “the perfect helicopter” for Afghanistan because it can carry more troops and supplies than the S-70 Black Hawk and is less complicated to fly. The Taliban had been on a campaign to assassinate Afghan Air Force pilots to diminish the air strategic advantage. At least six have been killed to date.

The US Defense Department had for long struggled to make the Afghan Air Force self-sufficient, with its pilots sometimes deserting during training in the US, and private contractor MRO support being required to achieve the required readiness-levels. By June 2021, availability dropped from over 90% in March/April for the AC-208 and 77% for the S-70s to about 30% across the force. A total of 46 aircraft, including 22 fixed-wing and 24 helicopters, and 585 Afghan airmen and soldiers, had fled to Uzbekistan by air after the fall of Kabul. By September 1, overhead satellite imagery revealed that Bohktar (Qurghonteppa) International Airport in Tajikistan was hosting 16 of the utility/transport attack aircraft previously seen at Uzbekistan’s Termez International Airport.  Afghanistan had about 120 S-70 Black Hawk crews before the fall of Kabul. It is not known how many crews fled across the border or are in hiding.

The CIA also wants India to explore the possibility of allowing USAF E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) platforms and combatant-elements of the US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) to operate out of IAF air bases in Ladakh UT, like Leh and Thoise for conducting the so-called ‘over-the-horizon’ counter-terror operations. Such platforms, operating from Ladakh, will have to overfly Gilgit-Baltistan (with Pakistani concurrence) in order to operate over the Badakhshan, Kunduz, Kunar and Nangarhar provinces for targetting the IS-WK presence in these provinces. Essentially a modified Bombardier Global Express, the E-11A is an airborne Wi-Fi battlespace management platform that conducts ISTR missions, SIGINT missions, and also relays voice communications, ISR and video imagery, and other data between other ISR platforms (like UAVs) and ground troops that are often using different types of communications networks. The E-11As were developed in response to communications shortfalls that led to a 2005 battlefield disaster for US special operations forces in north-eastern Afghanistan. OP Red Wings—a joint mission involving US Navy SEALs, US Army ‘Green Berets’ special operations forces, and US Marines Special Force Recon—was meant to target Taliban combatants in the Pech district of Kunar province. But the mountainous terrain prevented a four-man SEAL reconnaissance team from establishing reliable communications with their ground-based command centre. Within hours of their arrival, the four-man SEAL team was attacked by the Taliban and three of them were eventually killed-in-action. Following this, a Taliban RPG-7 rocket-propelled grenade struck a USAF CH-47D Chinook as it attempted to land a ‘Green Berets’ extraction team--killing 16 of them. One E-11A had crash-landed on January 27, 2020 on a remote plain south of Kabul in Ghazni province, killing at least two of its crew-members.

September 9, 2021: CIA Director William Burns travelled to Pakistan for meetings with the PA’s COAS Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa and ISI-DG Lt Gen Faiz Hamid to explore the possibility of counter-terrorism cooperation between the two sides.

Translation: In late April, when William Burns made its first trip to Islamabad and sought the usage of air bases owned by the PA and PAF for conducting over-the-horizon counter-terror operations inside Afghanistan, the Pakistanis had demanded a variety of restrictions in exchange for the use of such bases, and had demanded that they sign off on any targets that either the CIA or the US military would want to hit inside Afghanistan. This time, the US is taking a more hard-line approach by enlisting India’s support—meaning if push comes to shove, the US and India together will use military coercion (using both countries’ air force assets) to unilaterally declare no-fly zones over Gilgit-Baltistan for creating the air corridors required for accessing northern and north-eastern Afghanistan. This can well be another reason why both the PA and Pakistan Air Force PAF activated their air-defence sites in PoJK on September 5.

Meanwhile, matters are clearly not going well at all for China’s PLA Ground Forces (PLAGF) along the LAC. This has prompted a frustrated President Xi Jinping, 68, to appoint Gen Wang Haijiang, 58, as the new Commander of the PLA’s Western Theatre Command (WTC). He had earlier served as Commander of the Tibet Military District (TMD) since December 2019. Earlier, he also served in a number of positions, including Deputy Commander South Xinjiang Military District. Gen Wang is the fourth commander to head the WTC since the eastern Ladakh standoff began in May 2020. Xi in July 2021 had promoted Gen Xu Qiling, 59, to head the PLA’s WTC. Gen Xu was the third General to head the WTC after the Ladakh tensions began in May 2020. Earlier Gen Zhang Xudong was appointed on December 19, 2020 to head the WTC, replacing 65-year-old Gen Zhao Zongqi who retired from the PLA. In fact, a deeply worried Xi, who is also Chairman of the Central Military Commission, visited Lhasa on July 22 and 23 after a gap of ten years (he had visited Tibet as Vice-President in 2011) to find out for himself why the Tibetan natives were not joining the PLAGF’s combat branches in larger numbers, choosing instead to opt for recruitment in the People’s Armed Police and non-combat military branches like the Medical Corps. While in Lhasa, Xi met the PLA’s top brass of TMD as well as their Chengdu-based WTC leadership, both of whom have not even succeeded in hiring local Tibetan porters.

129 comments:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

ew Afghan Air Force at Kabul Airport: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxO2QXkWR1k

4 KEY FACTORS in AFGHANISTAN'S COLLAPSE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMglJieKR54

FAKE NEWS Spread by Indian TV Channels: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nL_l_HNRhWU

IRAN’s Statement Against Taliban: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJaN44xFBKw&t=4s
Taliban-China:

India’s CCNS Meeting on September 6: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3GdOo9aUIM

Ranchhod Pagi’s Exploits for Indian Army: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV8WvtboHE8

Iranian Playing India’s National Anthem on Santoor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoT0IqvAyYU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEBMl-6sLFo

Latest AIP from NAVAL FORCES: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgIWbOtvr3o

Turkey’s Newest Combat Drone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuifbwgSoF4

Harsh said...

Hi sir, Are you trying to signal something by posting the 2 maps at last of the above narrative?

Advanced level ki kabaddi khelne ka time has come? or is it going to be played?

The Sanatani Bhartiya said...

Prasun,
1.How does Naval groups AIP compare with DRDO AIP? Any benefits for the Indian Navy out of it since DRDO AIP was built in collaboration with Naval group!
2.Can you outline the options on the table for India with regard to the ongoing matters in Afghanistan?
3.Is it likely that Pakistan will be blacklisted by FATF considering the situation in Afghanistan and the way certain countries are lining up to court Pakistan with regard to it?
4.What specific problems is the PLAGF facing on the LAC?Can you please enlighten us?
5.Is it right that presently China is facing a series of setbacks on the economic front?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HARSH: Yes, it time to punch according to one's weight-rating, not just sit by & sulk & moan & groan. Neither under-estimation nor over-estimation. I wonder exactly how many of India's intelligentsia are even aware of the India-Afghanistan IB. The last time the Wakhan Corridor was in the news in India was in 2012 when the then COAS of the IA Gen V K Singh had stated that his PhD thesis dealt with the strategic importance of that corridor.

To THE INDIAN: 1) Both AIPs have yet to be installed & tested on SSKs & so they are now evenly balanced. The MAREEM AIP co-developed by DRDO & L & T is an indigenous solution & Naval Group's involvement was limited to only supplying the engineering data reqd for fitting the MAREEM into the Scorpene SSK's pressure-hull. 2) Have done exactly that above. 3) No. Pakistan will be allowed to survive like JELLY. 5) Yes. Industrial output has reduced due to the on-going lockdowns in central & southern China.

just_curious said...

Prasun ,

1-Interesting read.. so you are suggesting the northern alliance is back afterall. also GB takeover being finalized? Where does that leave China, will they create a distraction like wot they did in Ladhak again or this time with Taiwan? so UAE is onboard what happens to other islamic calipahtes like turkey, qatar etc .. why is there no role for Saudis, who helped make the taliban?
2- Pakis a "Jelly"? as in wobbly/unstable with stricter implemenation of Fatf sanctions or will it be allowed to spring back ?
3- both CIA head & Russian NSA are in India. what role will US & west play wrt northern alliance?
4- Why is turkey so desperate to take reins of Bagram airport? also why is their Indian ambassador suddenly sweet talking when his caliph has been spewing venom for the last few yrs?
5- wouldn't it be prudent to spend the Chakra 4 money on additional super kalavari's or on consulting fees for Arihnat class SSN's , why spend billions on lease?
6- Now that the hurriyat scum is dead, why isn't the hurriyat banned as an anti national org like SIMI is? shud have been burried along with that ba******d . the likes of Mirnawz shud be seeing their graves nxt to that scumbag. Also why are Geelani's children spared.. one I read was accused of helping the terrorists..meanwhile Farooq Abdullah praises Taliban time to parcel him & his entourage to afghanistan... ditto with the muftis, who btw have lived upto their name MUFT(khor)is... :)
7- no new tests from DRDO/HAL/ARDE anyone?

Hari said...

What is the significance of the meeting between the NSA of India and Russia on 8th Sep and a similar meeting between India and US NSA on 7th Sep ?

Will there be any major shift in the Afghanistan handling now that the interim government has been announced??

Sanjay said...

Mr. Prasun

Excellent thread as always
But I still doubt our Leaders have the will

1)Then I guess a civil war is inevitable?

2)Recent reports of Airstrikes by foreign aircraft against Taliban?
Is it true? Who's behind this?

3)Are India and Russia going to capture Northern Afghanistan with help of local forces?

4)CIA chief visited India might visit Pakistan too to force both sides to Back down mainly telling India forget Afghanistan?

Thank you very much

Sanjay




just_curious said...

Prasun.

some interesting dev news comming thru, pls confirmm

1- Bramhos NG ready for trails by 2023? what will be its tentaive range 300kms? can it be extended in the future to #450 kms -- @half of what would be the extended range of Bramhos ER?
2- HAL has completed sea level trails for HTSE1200 & HTFE25 ? if true the by when can they be ready for flight trails

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

You wrote: "A synchronised military option involving India and Russia was formally given the go-ahead, with the Indian Army and IAF being given the green-light for expediting their respective taskings."

Does this mean India & Russia will launch military operations in Afghanistan against the Taliban?

Thanks

The Sanatani Bhartiya said...

Prasun,
Does it mean that at last the powers that be in India are going to act against the Pakis in Afghanistan?Is there a likelihood that the US as well as Russia will act in concert with India in this?

Anonymous said...

One of the best articles I have read on the regional situation. I have couple few questions.

1. What is interesting and concerning especially if what you say is true about our partnership with Iran; Why Iran does not allow IAF over-flights? If this is true why do you think Iran will goes with us ratherthan China after signing $400 billion deal with them?

2. Regarding Russia, I think you have been proven correct again, they do not trust Talibunnies or Paks at all and were I guess waiting for India to throw its hat in the ring. Do you think we are going to throw our hat in the ring (did CIA chief push us) by recognising Saleh Gov and arming them?

3. North-South corridor, what is USA take on this? They are keen to isolate Russia at all cost. Have we been given green light that we can go-ahead?

4. Are UAE charging us for inflight refueling? Isn't it about time we actually ordered those MRTTs now.

5. Do you think Panjshir or adjoining areas are still under the control of Saleh etc..? Or will Tajikistan become the new Front-line state? Do you think we will put boots on the ground there to stop the blowback?

Dinish

buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CMPGXggWfgs
Tajikistan aided by Russia has plans to divide Afghanistan into two
Is this probably going to happen.
.

DAshu said...

Sir, hard to digest this thread. So many unconnected dots for me at least.

Anonymous said...

sir,
A synchronised military option involving India and Russia was formally given the go-ahead, with the Indian Army and IAF being given the green-light for expediting their respective taskings

1. by meaning "go-ahead", means redemption for 1999/65??
2.are u sure, meaning approval from netas??
3.sir any idea about this SPAD-GMS project, is it indigenous or licensed design???

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/indian-army-to-add-more-firepower-indigenous-spad-gms-to-replace-obsolete-guns/1815848/

Thank you
Yogesh

Anonymous said...

Sir,
4. what will be the contribution of americans and west in this "expedition"??

Thank You
Yogesh

arjun said...

Thank you for not spreading BS, unlike certain desi imbeciles are. These morons are claiming that the Taliban are helping the TTP (anti-pak) and ETIM (anti-China) and that the NRFA is dead. Ironically, this nonsense is coming from the right-wing, Modi-worshipping defence crowd. All these morons are doing is DELUDING themselves. https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/status/1435455107525718017

Some other points/questions that Indian decision makers need to factor/answer:

1) How will India convince Saudi and Qatar's, as supposed Indian allies, proxies to cut off funding to the Taliban?
2) India needs to diversify the resistance effort to be inclusive and respectful of Afghanistan's pluralistic society. Iran's Afghani Fatemiyoun brigade has recently finished their successful campaign in Syria. Their support in North Western Afg will be much appreciated. Similarly, Tajik and Uzbek militias are needed to bolster the NRFA in NE Afg. India needs to nudge these actors in the right direction.
3) ISI has done an excellent job of coordinating human resources for Taliban. How will RAW respond? Rely on Iranis to do recruitment? Or franchise this business to pro-NRFA warlords? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAhThjHORrU
4) How will India counter bullshit propaganda from Yanks? America and the West will try to spin this as Russia/Iranian meddling. West has some hidden agenda that is not expounded yet. Blinken is new Kissinger or Albright. https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1433164076583170053 https://twitter.com/laralogan/status/1433535361561595905
5) Will Heron-TPs get leased by an undisclosed South Asian country and based in Farkhor? Or the LCH, operated by the same country?
6) This is good opportunity for private sector in India to prove themselves and get contracts. IA and IAF can get field evaluations of private companies' products.
7) Can India or Russia establish a cooperative no-fly zone over Afghanistan if Pakis choose to escalate?
8) If India has the balls for pursuing an extended civil war in Afg, how will Pak react? If Pak have to respond by sending NLI regiment into Afg, then how will this impact the LoC? Is there political will to take things to their logical conclusion?

Sanjeev said...

Hi Prasunda,
Your take on the C-295 deal?

Harsh said...

Pakistani National command authority met... what gave them shivers?

Praksh said...

Prasun da

https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/vk-scents-a-chinese-tunnel-outflanking-move-near-afghan-border-with-interests-for-india-ex-chief/cid/410074

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.timesofindia.com/india/general-vk-singh-had-wakhan-in-mind-to-

https://jamestown.org/program/china-builds-closer-ties-to-afghanistan-through-wakhan-corridor/

So Gen VK Singh had done a thesis on this.

Three options for India
1) Wait n Watch
2) Reactive
3) Proactive

1)So India has taken option 1 ?

2)The Emergency Financial Powers for Vice Chiefs, Deputy Chiefs etc etc also for CISC when this post has been overtaken by Vice CDS? Does CISC still exist?

3)So our C-17s fly from India through UAE/Saudi Arabia/Persian Gulf to Iraq and then Turkey/Armenia/Azerbaijan then Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan and then Tajikistan?

4)Why isn't Iran allowing our C-17 to fly through Iran when if I recall correctly until very recently our C-17s delivered ammunition to ANA by flying through them before the fall of Kabul?


Thanks



arjun said...

Sorry, I confused Farkhor heliport with Ayni air force base.

Some promising signs:
http://president.tj/en/node/26486
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/tajik-group%C2%A0volunteers%C2%A0-join%C2%A0panjshir%C2%A0resistance-192732
https://mailchi.mp/eurasianet/tajik-patriotism-swells-but-is-hollow-in-practice
https://twitter.com/NRFmojahed/status/1435657115058716680

just_curious said...

Prasun,

Interesting read, completely takes a diff line ..the author knows a bit about the region
https://www.rediff.com/news/column/mk-bhadrakumar-afghanistan-is-done-with-jihad/20210907.htm

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANUP: You will get to read all about them tonight.

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) It is still to early to confirm whether or not the liberation of GB is on the table. China is far too busy now in the South & East China Seas, while the WTC’s command-n-control structure is still undergoing modifications. 2) It won’t be able to spring back due to its internal structural economic, monetary & financial deficiencies. 3) You will get to read about it tonight. 4) Turkey wants to become the nodal country for bringing in & distributing all the international humanitarian aid that the UN’s WFP will supply, so that Turkey can project itself as the good Samaritan. So far, only Qatar, Bahrain & today Pakistan have flown in such aid into Kabul. 5) Yes, but PROVIDED the SSN construction proceeds with high-speed. 6) Because the trial of key figures of that grouping is now underway at a special fast-track anti-terror court in Jammu. Once that trial is concluded & the verdict pronounced, only then will it become legally justifiable to ban such groupings. Meanwhile, yesterday evening there was a BIG FIGHT between two Kashmiris: Vivek Katju & Amitabh Mattoo, which can be viewed here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA4vVUbD3Zk&t=2s

BrahMos-NG’s range will be 300km. Sea-level trials means running the engines on test-cells. Next comes the reqmt for engineering them for fitting into a flying platform. And let’s not be taken in by the delusional musings of M K Bhadrakumar. It has been decades since his retirement from the MEA & he is therefore clueless about present-day ground realities. If within another 10 days the Taliban’s caretaker govt does not overcome the dire financial & food scarcity woes, we will see tens of thousands of Taliban cadres leaving the Taliban to join IS-WK.

To HARI: You will get to read all about it tonight.

To SANJAY: 1) Yes. 2) Not air-strikes, but drone-strikes. 3 & 4) You will be able to read all about it tonight.

To VIKRAM GUHA: Not quite, but creating the conditions necessary for conducting irregular warfare, since the Taliban is not a properly equipped conventional warfighting force.

To THE INDIAN: Yes, but the participation will manifest themselves in different ways.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DINISH: 1) Because Iran is still preoccupied in Iraq & Syria against ISIS & hence does not have the forces reqd for securing its eastern borders against irregular warfare of the type the Taliban engages in. However, Iran has lobbied in India’s favour with Baghdad. 2) It’s about time India did that & called both China’s & Pakistan’s bluffs. 3) The success of that corridor depends on Chabahar FTZ being kept of the sanctions list. But if India can directly access the Wakhan Corridor, then oil & gas supplies from Central Asian Republics to India will increase manifold & will also be much cheaper. 4) Of course, that’s why it called leasing by the hour. 5) Yes, all the surrounding 15 mountains are under the NRFA’s control. That’s why Russia 2 days ago announced that it is creating a unified air-defence system for both itself & that includes the ADIZs of all the Central Asian Republics.

To YOGESH: 1) You will get to read all about it tonight.

To ARJUN: 1) They can & are supplying humanitarian aid, but the real funds are under US control. Perhaps that’s why the Taliban are not allowing some US citizens from leaving Afghanistan & are using them as bargaining chips. That’s because the Doha Peace Accord inked between the US & Taliban clearly states that by the time the US military forces withdraw from Afghanistan, the US will be reqd to take the Taliban leaders off the UNSC sanctions list. Since the US has not kept its promise, the Taliban is now saying that the US has violated an internationally binding agreement. 2) Iran does not have the financial or military clout to get involved in any meaningful way. The debilitating sanctions have already reduced its GDP to a mere US$20 billion. On the other hand, resistance inside Afghanistan has been seen only in the north, north-east, Kabul & Herat. The southeast & southwest portions of Afghanistan that are Pashtun-dominated are peaceful at the moment, but if the economic & financial meltdowns & acute food shortages are left unchecked, then that will lead to widespread internal turmoil of the type that had engulfed Iraq back in 2003 within a fortnight of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime. 4) The US now has to explain why it is not honouring its part of the Doha Peace Accord & hence the US Secretary of State was excessively defensive in his interview given to TOLO NEWS. 5) None of them will happen, rest assured. 6) Field evaluations can & must be done within India itself. Why travel so far for such evaluations? 7) Russia is already creating a unified air-defence network to cover both itself & all the CARs. 8) India’s ‘netas’ do not have such political will, but will be forced to take the necessary steps only when they are convinced that there’s no other available option. That’s why the Firangis from the UK, Russia & the US visited Delhi—i.e. to drag forward India by pulling both her ears & the nose.

To SANJEEV: It is the WRONG decision. It would have been far better & more cost-effective to go for C-130Js, either pre-owned or brand-new.

To PRAKSH: 1) Not India, but the Firangis from the UK, Russia & the US who just visited Delhi—i.e. to drag forward India by pulling both her ears & the nose. 2) CISC is now the Secretariat for the CDS, who is now also a Secretary-level official heading the Dept of Military Affairs. 3) Yes. 4) No, all IAF flights with military gear on-board & headed for Afghanistan flew over Iraq & avoided Iranian airspace. Iran does not have the financial or military clout to get involved in any meaningful way. The debilitating sanctions have already reduced its GDP to a mere US$20 billion.

Sanjeev said...

Following up on your comment on C-295 being the wrong decision vs C-130j, isn't C-130J expensive? Like $1B for 5 planes(like the one NZ just bought) vs 56 C-295 for $3B?

Manish 2 said...

Prasunda,
It seems as usual India has been taken for a ride by Pakistan. The ceasefire on LoC was just a ploy played by GHQ to divert its full attention away from LoC to Durand Line, and the Afghan problem.
Now that the Afghan issue seems to have settled in Pak's favour, the COAS of PA, Bajwa, has
recently made some unsavoury comments on Kashmir. It seems the LoC will get hot soon.
I don't understand when even a layman could see that Pak is playing us by sugar coating about kashmir and LoC 6-7 months back, then why India's higher leadership could not ? Why did we agree to the ceasefire instead of giving hell to PA, and battering this mafia army's ass ?
It is not that everybody could have missed the developments..now what did we gain ?Why is it that PA can play us any time it wants to ? whats stopping us from making afghanistan the vietnam of pak ? what the hell could a beggar nation exactly do ?

pm said...

Sir what is the reason company like Ford exiting India? Should we be worried, if so what can we do to remedy the situation.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da,

Do you agree with this :

https://youtu.be/vveUgUsZ8Ws

Is there any shorts of deal has been made by PA with Taliban regarding to Kashmir in exchange of helping them capturing Panjsir.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
I never quite understood the procurement policy of the indian navy, they keep making piecemeal orders of 3/4 ships.
It was actually quite refreshing to see them order 7 Nilgiri class frigets in one go. But wouldn't it be better if they froze a single design for a cruiser, destroyer, friget, corvette and ordered 20-30 ships of each class in one go with all of them having commonality of engines, sensors, armaments to the maximum extent. I am sure they see western navies adopt the same strategy and must be aware of best practices as they have substantial exposure thanks to the plethora of joint exercises.
What is stopping them from adopting the same in india.
On a side note,
Do you have any information on the next generation destroyers (successor to the vizag class) being planned for the indian navy ?

- Dr KRG

Raj Gupta said...

Mr.Prasun

This is Russia's position
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/resistance-taliban-is-doomed-says-russian-envoy-afghanistan-2021-08-20/

The resistance is doomed said Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan.

I think we are living in a fool's paradise.

Kaustav said...

Ford suffered product failure. That's the only reason they exit India now. Both EcoSport & Aspire might be great cars but the market is taken by others

murthy said...

some may be enthusiastic for india afghan direct border link but west do not bother on this, in the same way in 1947 UK gave India, Independence not because of Gandhi or Indian people fighting but just because of European political landscape and WW2 factors.

No one in the west is really bothered about this third world hypothetical issue

Anonymous said...

AN32 has about the same capacity as C295, maybe if C295 can operate equally well in high altitudes, IAF should go in for 110 C295 and 56 C130. this will bring additional capability as a 20 ton plane.

Regards,
Venky

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJEEV: Elementary law of economics: the more one buys, the lesser the per-unit cost. In India the CAPFs who have to be transported throughout the country for several assignments on any given day, higher-capacity transport aircraft are cheaper to operate, inside of platforms like C-295 that have have to fly far more.

To MANISH 2: Have uploaded the updates above dealing with events of September 3, 7 & 9.

To PM: Any MNC exits the scene when the business operation is no longer financially viable.

To Dr.KRG: The IN does not require principal surface combatants in numbers as large as those of China. In addition, the delays one witnessed since the mid-1990s were attributable to the dissolution of the USSR & the consequent financial & industrial anarchy that had prevailed in Russia till 2005. The issue of the Rupee-Rouble trade balance was also another inhibiting factor—all of which severely affected the construction of P-15 & P-15A DDGs, P-17 FFGs & the IAC-1/Vikrant. The Project 28 corvette project got delayed for a totally different set of reasons, i.e. the decision to make extensive use of composites, especially the all-composite main masts, which had caused severe design & construction challenges. Then there were problems like lack of coordination with DMR-249A steel suppliers like SAIL, when ESSAR Steel had to step in at the last minute for supplying DMR-249A steel. So a combination of all these factors & perhaps bad luck resulted in huge cost overruns for domestic warship construction programmes.

To RAJ GUPTA: And this is the UN’s position:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-says-afghan-staff-increasingly-harassed-intimidated-since-taliban-takeover-2021-09-09/

Which of the two sounds more credible?

To MURTHY: The UK was forced/compelled to transfer power to India in a hurry in 1947 because since mid-1945 the anger of 26 million Indians was steadily growing against the 8 lakh Anglo-Saxon Caucasian rulers residing in India, primarily due to incidents like the naval mutiny after the UK had decided to institute cases of war-crimes & mutiny against the captured INA soldiers. And till today no one knows what happened to the INA’s Treasury that was lying in Singapore & what happened after Lord Mountbatten sent Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru to Singapore in 1946 to collect it & bring it back to pre-independent India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Rise & Fall of China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gB_53L2g_o

China’s Patriotic Education: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6V-Mh9Vffk

Tensions With Taiwan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceigAG5ueP4

Barak-8 MR-SAM Servikce-Induction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6-aaYsiVaQ

Balochistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OblwJv108AA

Bajaur: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1zEEzZKYug

9/11 Ka Waqya: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thSSRfF256M

I guess till eternity the Pakistanis will refuse to accept the truths & will continue to believe in irrational conspiracy theories!

PAF SSG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9qzO-34F40

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Maybe the heads of Intel Agencies have visited India, but it might be due to entirely different reasons than putting Pakistan in a tight spot. Instead India might have to co-operate with Pakistan, if for nothing else, than to maintain peace. Reading between the lines should suffice.

Even as Pakistan gleefully celebrates its “win against America”, western commentariat has taken a sharp turn and is now trying to bury the role Pakistan has played. This is because the US has contracted out Afghanistan to Pak to run via its proxyTaliban.

20 Years After 9/11, Afghanistan Is Back to Square One & the US Has Learnt Nothing | OPINION - https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/20-years-after-911-afghanistan-is-back-to-square-one-us-has-learnt-nothing

Maybe the US has learnt a lot and is now shifting focus elsewhere and maybe Pakistan is now more useful to the West b w than before.

How Pakistan enables the Taliban and what Ottawa should do about it: New MLI Commentary https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/pakistan-terror-tool-statecraft/#

[10/09, 11:37 am] Kaustav Bhattacharya: Even as Pakistan gleefully celebrates its “win against America”, western commentariat has taken a sharp turn and is now trying to bury the role Pakistan has played. This is because the US has contracted out Afghanistan to Pak to run via its proxyTaliban.

The Other Afghan Women
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/09/13/the-other-afghan-women?

Don't underestimate the hold Taliban has over the rural areas with 70% of the population. If food scarcity and other shortages take place only then would the Taliban govt. lose support in the countryside. There is a clear rural urban class divide which this liberal left article highlights

The IMF finance goes through. The weapons are left, exactly in the manner you have stated, but the user will be the Taliban or their allies not those opposing them.

Maybe PRC will have to beware bu India isn't having a comfortable time of it.

I certainly hope to be wrong, but Interesting times ahead either way. Ofcourse the agrnda will be set for you if you aren't proactive, you will be led by the nose, as you said.

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

Thanks for the updates and clarifications. The new interim government announced by the Taliban does not encourage optimism. If the sanctions are not lifted, as it seems likely, there seems to be only one end outcome on the horizon for the Afghans. Poverty, instability and population movement towards refugee status. Nothing good will come out of all this.

What is your take on the developing situation?

Regards,

Raghu

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV & RAGHU: In the end, it will be the economic factor that will determine the fate of the so-called Islamic Emirate, which by nature will refuse to accept any low-interest loans from China, since it will be considered un-Islamic & therefore Kabul's new rulers will accept only interest-free loans. Pakistan by itself will not be able to shoulder the financial burden & therefore it is now reaching out to both Saudi Arabia & the UAE for financial assistance, i.e. the same old trick of Pakistan gobbling up the money & then claiming that it had used the money to procure & supply perishables for land-locked & drought-hit Afghanistan. But will that work this time, since both Riyadh & Abu Dhabi will have to gain the approval of The US. Iran too has to contend with droughts. In addition, while the Uzbeks & Tajiks have representation in the all-Taliban interim govt, the Shia Hazaras have been left out & it remains to be seen how the provincial governors will be selected. Therefore, chances are high that the Taliban will try very hard to obtain emergency shipments of wheat, rice & tea from India--both by airfreight & through the sea route via Chabahar. So, with each passing day, time is running out for the Taliban.

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

China seems to have stepped in to provide aid to Afghanistan. I wonder what their plans are for the days ahead in Afghanistan.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2021/9/9/china-offers-31m-in-aid-3-million-covid-shots-to-afghanistan

Regards

Raghu

Vineet said...

sir, seems your analysis is on spot

https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1436267494512205824?s=20

Parthasarathi said...

Prasunda,
I personally feel C 295 has a great future in India' particularly in commercial sectors. Like it can connect small towns with hub, like Alipurduwar to Kolkata or Tuticorin to Chennai. At the same time can be used as cargo carriers. Potential is immense.
Best regards

Praksh said...

Prasun da

Wasn't MRSAM already deployed at Pune before and possibly also in J&K UT after February 2019?

Thanks

AJ said...

Hello Prasunda,

Happy Ganesh Chaturthi!

Two Questions:
1. Do you think Pakistani will buy the left over US equipments like APC, helicopters, Humvees, etc?
2. I think its a good opportunity for India to buy all the 4 C-130Js at half price from Taliban. The other equipment I dont think is compatible with Indian Armed Forces. Thoughts?

Love your pragmatic thoughts. You are an equal opportunity offender, i love that about you. I still have to see you appreciate Modi as CM over Mamata though. lol.

AJ

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasunda, GRSE has signed a MoU with Naval Group to offer high-end surface warships based on state of the art Gowind design.

Is the Indian Navy planning to but the Gowind?

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da,


"Therefore, chances are high that the Taliban will try very hard to obtain emergency shipments of wheat, rice & tea from India--both by airfreight & through the sea route via Chabahar. So, with each passing day, time is running out for the Taliban."

---In this respect there is this interview of Former Ambassador Jitendra Nath Misra to Rediff.com's Archana Masih echoing your views to some extent:

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/why-would-taliban-want-to-spite-india/20210909.htm

---"The Taliban also need India to balance the winners in this game.'xxxxxx'

Do you see the present Taliban leadership, less beholden to the ISI than the original Taliban?

They want to be less beholden to the ISI; it doesn't mean they will be. But there are unresolved issues.

Even though the old Taliban had to accommodate Pakistan, no Afghan government -- including the Taliban -- till date has accepted the Durand Line between Afghanistan and Pakistan as a legal border.

Thus, there is a degree of tension in the relationship regardless of who rules either country.

The Taliban are perhaps a little less dependent on the ISI because China is a new factor. China is ready to fill the void which will to some extent be at the cost of Pakistan.

Hence, it is not going to be easy for Pakistan to have complete control over the Taliban.

The geopolitics is considerably different today.---- I disagree here, China is a weakening Loan Shark, that badly needs flesh and blood, a shattered country like Afghanistan is best bet for the Loan shark and its barnacle Pakistan. I agree more than with you.

"India has about $3 billion worth of commitment in Afghanistan, but there is no authoritative voice in Afghanistan willing and able to speak up for India.

At the same time, the Taliban is not irrational. They now have to reconstruct the country. Historically, Afghans have never been able to become a nation State with defined boundaries, institutions and proper infrastructure because it is a fragmented country.

Why would the Taliban want to destroy this infrastructure? Why would they want to spite India?

India is a marginal player compared to the Chinese, Russians, Iranians and Pakistanis. These countries have their embassies open and thus a presence. We don't have that right now.

But we can make some difference because we are a regional power. The Taliban also need India to balance the winners in this game.

We should hold the Taliban to the commitments of the previous Afghan government. If they want us to continue our infrastructure development in Afghanistan, we must insist on continuity from their side too."

"It is very important for India to pitch a tent in Afghanistan. I agree with you that we don't have an actual physical border, but Afghanistan shares a 105 km border across the Wakhan corridor with Pakistan occupied Kashmir which is the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

After gaining physical control of Pakistan occupied Kashmir, we will have a more than 100 kilometre-long border with Afghanistan -- conceptually, legally, cartographically and physically.

India is a stakeholder because Indian territory is under Pakistani occupation. And the only thing unresolved is for us to gain control over that territory.

Right now, we are merely observing the situation in Afghanistan. Over the longer-term, our policy has to be based on there being a shared border, even if this is a goal rather than a reality right now.

Contd....

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

-----From above..

This gives us vital stakes in Afghanistan. A border would give us greater capacity to influence events there. There has to be forward thinking.

In the last 2,500 years, all of India's invasions, except those of Europe, were land-borne. Afghanistan was the launching pad, a strong power in that region has been hugely problematic for India."

----I don't know whether those who are in political helm, has the same guts to read writing on the wall, and capture PoJK , unless waking to hard realities.

Meanwhile, The Talibans vandalised the tomb of Ahmed Shah Masood , and tortured to death the elder brother of Amrullah Saleh :

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/taliban-vandalise-tomb-of-ahmad-shah-massoud-e2-80-98lion-of-panjshir-e2-80-99-on-his-20th-death-anniversary/ar-AAOhCiz?ocid=BingNewsSearch

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/video/amrullah-saleh-s-brother-rohullah-killed-by-taliban-1851584-2021-09-10

---These surely fire up Anti Taliban sentiment of ethnic Tajiks, and retribution to Talibans, and it's now become prophecy by Late Senior Masood, the lion of Punjsir :

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/ahmad-shah-massouds-prophetic-words-for-peace-in-afghanistan-pakistan-must-be-kept-away-309236

---For peace in Afghanistan, Pakistan must be kept away

Did the Pakistan tried to make a deal with the Taliban w.r.t. Kashmir in lieu of helping them to repress the Resistance ?

Laughable that the PA decided to drag India to counter drone bombing allegation and that too late :

https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/watch/watch-pakistan-drags-india-into-panjshir-vs-taliban-row-after-reports-of-drone-bombing-resistance/vi-AAOiOvY?ocid=msedgntp

Please share your views on the above. Thanks in advance Dada.

BTW, I found your videos of the Ground realities of Bajour by the DAWN, as ISPR inspired Ground Realities. All the time they were on the conducted tour by the PA.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Was INS Dhruv commissioned as scheduled on Sep 10 ? Or are there further delays ? There seems to be no news confirming its commissioning.

Satyaki

bored said...

Take Home Points:
1. West do not want to antagonise pakistan (as it brings them nothing), they simply are not bothered what it is upto.
2. West need pakistan to work for them and work with them and ready to pay money. win-win
3. West may need india to assist in some aspects (while not annoying pakistan at any cost) and we are clueless how to react
4. Pakistan conditions to work with West will be hidden (from indian eyes and ears) and will be honoured and any indian assistance should be done keeping this in mind
5. Indian aspirations are not the main aspect here to the west. fixing afghan through pak is the no 1 priority and this will be over ridden condition in this game, the game that never ends..


some more rant (excuse me for this)
pak orders and west reaction:
1. take us out of FATF shit list: sure sir
2. grants: processed sir
3. reimburse costs for our services: definitely sir
4. control India: already done sir, always
5. get some visas for our military families in UK and US: most welcome sir
6. sub contracts to us: 100% sir
7. weapons: send us list please
8. IMF,WB loans: granted sir

some more summary shit:
uk needs china money
eu needs china money
uk politicians need british paki votes
labour party filled with paki junkies
indian politicians clue less as usual
indian tv needs ratings at any cost to make money, doesn't matter what ever the topic is and ready to take investment from china/pak/west/church/cutmirchi/saffron/left/right/porn/drama/cinema/paidnews/
indian spies as usual spy on wives xchange (courtesy: indian navy officers(?) wives exchange programme and 1999 kargil among few) rather spying on.... what ever...

still time left? .... no... i am hungry.... time to go...

Manish 2 said...

Prasunda, I didn't get an answer to my query in your writeup. So I request you to please answer my question. repeating the question below.

It seems as usual India has been taken for a ride by Pakistan. The ceasefire on LoC was just a ploy played by GHQ to divert its full attention away from LoC to Durand Line, and the Afghan problem.
Now that the Afghan issue seems to have settled in Pak's favour, the COAS of PA, Bajwa, has
recently made some unsavoury comments on Kashmir. It seems the LoC will get hot soon.
I don't understand when even a layman could see that Pak is playing us by sugar coating about kashmir and LoC 6-7 months back, then why India's higher leadership could not ? Why did we agree to the ceasefire instead of giving hell to PA, and battering this mafia army's ass ?
It is not that everybody could have missed the developments..now what did we gain ?Why is it that PA can play us any time it wants to ? whats stopping us from making afghanistan the vietnam of pak ? what the hell could a beggar nation exactly do ?

Anonymous said...

Yes, we struggling with Sara's series anyway. Let us wait if Indian airline cos opt for this one over ATR series.

Regards
Venky

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, Joe meets Xi:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/joe-biden-and-xi-jinping-hold-first-call-in-seven-months/ar-AAOjD6Q?ocid=msedgntp

--"America’s China policy has resulted in “serious difficulties” in bilateral ties and goes against the core interests of the two countries and the common interests of the world, Chinese President Xi Jinping told US counterpart Joe Biden in a rare telephone call on Friday."

The conversation ended a seven-month gap in direct communication between the two leaders. Beijing said the call took place on Washington’s request. The last time the two leaders had spoken was on February 12."

--- I know PRC(CCP) is good at bluffing and blustering like BBC ( which does occasionally), btw what's your view on this vis a vis prevalent situation in Afghanistan ?

Thanks in advance.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAGHU: It is only a PLEDGE by China. Afghanistan doesn’t have a railroad to transport any kind of ore, doesn’t have enough electricity to refine the ores. Doesn’t have any money to pay for anything. All it has is heroin. I don’t think China wants that with the ‘Opium Wars’ fresh in its memory. On the other hand, the Communist Party of China has prioritised the 6 ‘Must Wars’ that it will wage in the Next 50 Years:

1 Unify Taiwan by 2020-2025
2 Recover South China Sea Islands by 2025-2030
3 Recover Southern Tibet by 2035-2040
4 Recover Diaoyu Islands by 2040-2045
5 Unification of Inner & Outer Mongolia by 2045-2050
6 Regain Russian Territory in Far East by 2055-2060

VINEET: VMT. When sound common-sense is applied, this is what everyone will conclude.

To PARTHASARATHI: The C-295 as a civilian air transportation aircraft will be ideal for smaller countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar, Nepal & Sri Lanka, but for connectivity among India’s Tier-3 cities, one requires a turbofan-powered solution after factoring in the shuttle traffic and passenger load-factors. This will be the ideal solution:

Do-328Jet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YII67gc74CE

To PRAKSH: Deployment & Service-Induction are 2 different events.

To AJ: 1) They will be worthless without spares support & Pakistan has no money with which to buy spares from the open market since its security assistance funds from the US was terminated back in 2017. 2) Again, for the foreseeable future no one will have any direct financial dealings with any Taliban govt. 3) VMT, but ‘netas’ of India have skeletons in their closets & all have emerged from near-identical environment. Hence, any differences between the CMs will be like 19 & 20. I can provide several instances of mis-governance in Gujarat between 2002 & 2014, and even beyond that period. One therefore cannot do competitive benchmarking between CMs based on the types of skeletons that get revealed from time to time. Consequently, no one can claim to be cleaner or holier than thou.

To SUMANTA: 1) The present Taliban regime is under greater influence of Pakistan due to the Haqqani Network’s overbearing presence within the govt. 2) China’s policies WRT Afghanistan will be heavily dependent on inputs supplied by Pakistan. Consequently, the Taliban’s posturing WRT Kashmir or CPEC will, in practical terms, will be a reflection of those of China & Pakistan. 3) The real problems for both China & Pakistan will begin when the world at large (including several OIC member-states) will reject the concept of an Islamic Emirate, since such a concept has no universally agreed-upon definition & is also at odds with the concept of ‘Sharia’ that is practised in the Arabian Peninsula & North Africa. .And to top it all, the Sunni-centric Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan will constantly be at odds with the Shia-dominated Islamic Republic of Iran & hence this gaping ideological faultline will further increase the internal turmoil inside both Afghanistan & Pakistan, which the latter will find impossible to control. 4) All press-reporting from Pakistan’s no-go areas are conducted tours, since the journalists have to obtain a ‘No Objection Certificate’ from the authorities. Here are some more of them:

Gilgit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RBdAMpF0Og
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qio9DXtaEH4

Skardu: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hucMNcDCGLk

What’s Pakistan’s Role in Afghanistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTEOe5eqjC0

Afghanistan’s Natural Resources: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXogh3im--k

Excellent documentaries on 20 Years of Chaos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcUMj4oy_0o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kR9BEFMHCcg

How CIA’s EAGLE BASE in Kabul was Torched:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADXbgqn5AfM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynaNR0e-wmo&t=1s

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: INS Dhruv: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qS-36E3ZokI

To BORED: It is absolutely counter-productive to wail, whine & sulk like what you have expressed. There are limits to what one can achieve while riding on someone else’s shoulders.

EX ZAPAD-2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTfUZwfpxSw

PLAN Marines ORBAT & Tactics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ulPO_PRtqj8

Global Microchip Shortages: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Fq86v3nz2o

Kaustav said...


Prasunda

The simple truth is Afghanistan is 5 th province of Paxtan which is the way Paxtan wants it. If not, then a friendly beholden vassal colony preferably controlled by Pashtuns who have accepted the duality of a Durand Line but open borders controlled by PakFauj

9/11 in Islamabad: https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/9-11-in-islamabad-the-first-72-hours/
Pak the arsonist pretends to be the fire-fighter
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/10/pakistan-us-relations-taliban-afghanistan-arsonist/
Pak to Use Own Currency for Bilateral Trade With Taliban, Aims to Control Afghan Economy https://www.news18.com/news/world/exclusive-pakistan-to-use-own-currency-for-bilateral-trade-with-taliban-aims-to-control-afghan-economy-4185506.html
Afghanistan 5th province of Pak - Terror Central🙏

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Continuing from above, India is in a fairly safe position. India should ensure it's own security & see if the Taliban can establish an independent stable government which has distanced itself from terror.
‘India shouldn’t be desperate to recognise Taliban unless they give us deal on terror’
-https://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-shouldnt-be-desperate-to-recognise-taliban-unless-they-give-us-deal-on-terror-7501814/lite/?

arjun said...

1)Why should India let US fight IS-K when this group (Salafi) want to fight Taliban and is outside Rawalpindi influence? As far as we Indians are concerned both are terrorists. If anything let the two cavemen fight it out and kill each other. https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1434494630750457862
2)What is the complicity between ISI and CIA? RAW going to turn the other cheek and forget about Indian national interest???
3)India could quid pro quo secretly fund Iran to set up militias in Afg. The agreement only applies to Afg, not anywhere near Israel. West indirectly funds Sunni terrorists that harm India and ignores India's concerns so their opinions are irrelevant. I assume Taliban think Hazara/Shia are kaafir.
4)India should not send aid to Taliban. Taliban could grow more food themselves but would rather cultivate poppy for opium. Instead, let people starve and unrest over Taliban rule will grow exponentially. Helping Taliban is like Red Indians helping British genociders who were starving when they arrived in North America.
5)Any news on Abdul Rasul Sayyaf or Abdul Khani Alipur?
6)IMF gave Pak $2.7 billion loan few weeks ago. USA will remove FATF once Pak moves all their terror camps to Afg. USA will give Pak F-35 when we induct AMCA. Don't understand why bother with Quad antics when USA is not going to help in a real Indo-China war. They see China *and* India as potential rivals and want to destabilize both. If India leaves Quad, China might harass us less (but we still need physical capability). Quad is a joke: https://www.state.gov/announcing-the-u-s-afghanistan-uzbekistan-pakistan-quad-regional-support-for-afghanistan-peace-process-and-post-settlement/
7)We should also work on eliminating US defense imports in case Jihadi Joe (and future presidents) tries to sanction us. Safran-Kaveri must be reconsidered. Extra initial cost worth the safety on not grounding our fleet in the future. And we should join French FCAS development since we will anyways import it.
8)Americans crying about human rights in Kashmir... meanwhile they don't care about human rights. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/world/asia/us-air-strike-drone-kabul-afghanistan-isis.html
9)Are the militants in Kunar Province the TTP? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD8RS1m1t3E
10)Taliban-Pakistan peace mean that they will redeploy their divisions currently deployed in the Quetta and Peshawar Corps and allow them to be deployed on the LoC and IB. Unless we start civil war in Afg, Jihadi Joe has secured PoK for Pakistan gratis.

Unknown said...

Hi prasun da,

What is the status of helina, sant and mp atgm.. are we at induction stage..

My question is how cobra and apache helicopter carry quad pack missiled on each stub while indian dhruv wsi or lch will carry dual rack on each sides. ..
What is the status of ghaatak ofb rifles
Status of LMG indigenous

Aniz

bored said...

To BORED: It is absolutely counter-productive to wail, whine & sulk like what you have expressed. There are limits to what one can achieve while riding on someone else’s shoulders.

Thank you for showing my comment and your reply. Don't you believe what I said is correct?

"There are limits to what one can achieve while riding on someone else’s shoulders."

very true and thanx for telling the truth in a straight forward way.

India can never achieve what it want while riding on Russia's, US's shoulders.
Actually there are not any in real terms, only imaginary.

Thank you for educating us, you are a true son of the soil, but the true education should come in central govt, agencies and armed forces. but they are not worthy of their titles anyway. sorry guys, truth hurts.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

VMT. Now that Afghanistan is controlled by Pak via Haqqanis, what happens to the TTP and BLA ? Do'nt these stand to lose sanctuary in/supplies from Afghanistan ?

Satyaki

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

" On the other hand, the Communist Party of China has prioritised the 6 ‘Must Wars’ that it will wage in the Next 50 Years:

1 Unify Taiwan by 2020-2025
2 Recover South China Sea Islands by 2025-2030
3 Recover Southern Tibet by 2035-2040
4 Recover Diaoyu Islands by 2040-2045
5 Unification of Inner & Outer Mongolia by 2045-2050
6 Regain Russian Territory in Far East by 2055-2060"

---- Prasun Da, Will it(CCP) last till 2060 ? They resemble Nazis albeit lacking Adolf Hitler's Germany's Technological Prowess (vis a vis its the then rivals) Or it envisions a dream world of its own where in next 50 years all its rival would go down to the drain and they will touch the sky at the same time, really don't know which type of opium they are smoking ?

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun

Interesting read on the new Electronic Warfare and radar capabilities of the new AESA radar meant for the F-16s.

Can both capabilities be used simultaneously? The article seems to suggest so. If so, that would be quite an advanced capability.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42321/this-gonzo-looking-crj-testbed-jet-just-put-the-f-16s-new-radar-through-its-paces

Regards,

Raghu

Sunil Aryan said...

Christine Fair deserves a Padma Shri at least. She has done an excellent job at countering propaganda from pseudo-academic namazis at State Department, various think tanks, and academia over the years. Throughout the entire Afghan crisis, she offered lucid explanation of the situation on the ground to technocrats and general public.

Indian diplomats should learn from her how to call a spade a spade:

https://twitter.com/CChristineFair/status/1436099036063440904

SUVO said...

Prasun Da,
thanks for this very interesting article.

https://youtu.be/11zsydKNwto
Please give your valuable feedback on this matter. It seems thak afganistan is the 5th province of pakistan or a colony of pakistan.

Sanjay said...

Mr. Prasun

1)http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/six-wars-china-is-sure-to-fight-in-the-next-50-years/

You have now come across this Fanboy stuff. I don't think it is serious

2)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thSSRfF256M

From where do they get such company of idiots. The American guest does he understand Urdu or he's saying whatever he wants to.

Even Bin Laden had accepted he was responsible for 9/11 but Pakistanis and the Talibanis don't see any role of him in 9/11. Such bufoons will pay the price i guess?

3)https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41997/bells-plan-to-finally-realize-a-rotorcraft-that-flies-like-a-jet-but-hovers-like-a-helicopter

In what timeframe such HSVTOL would be ready for operations? 2030 and beyond?

Thank you

Sanjay

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV & SUVO: As the saying goes…”If you break it, you own it.” So, let Pakistan take the lead in shouldering the burden of Afghanistan’s economy with China’s assistance. In the near future, the results will emerge to everyone’s horror. The Taliban’s duplicitous postures & overtures are for all to see: 1) Hurried recognition to CPEC & the Taliban’s urge to joint it. 2) Alleging that India had supplied weapons to previous Afghan govts when it was the USSR/Russia & China that had been supplying most of the small-arms & ammo since the 1980s. 3) Despite this, the Taliban has invited China & Russia to its caretaker govt’s swearing-in ceremony. 4) But not inviting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & the UAE, presumably because they both are staunch US allies. This in turn has put Pakistan into a pickle, with IAKN trying, but in vain, to make the Taliban change their minds. 5) Will the Taliban paint its flag on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, just like it has done so at the US Embassy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GQX90niDNI

RE: https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/9-11-in-islamabad-the-first-72-hours/

That narration finally proves what I had been stating WET OP Parakram, i.e. it was a grand charade that extracted a huge cost in men & material from India, with no tangible gains for India. This is also borne out by 2 other documents:

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/94299/To_the_Brink.pdf

https://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/document/papers/2002Jan12.htm

These clearly prove that Gen Musharraf NEVER had any intention of stating that he won’t allow terrorists to operate from Pakistan-controlled territory, i.e. he had then only stated that no terrorist/s will be allowed to operate from Pakistani soil, i.e. since PoJK was viewed by Islamabad as being ‘Azad Kashmir’, it did not constitute Pakistani territory & secondly Pakistan never viewed the Jihadis as terrorists, but as Mujihadeen fighting for Kashmir’s independence. This had, back in January 2002 caused enormous heartburn within India’s armed forces & the MEA, especially after India meekly continued to display passivity & decisive military inaction. In many ways, this attitude still continues & hence India’s inability to use either military power or military force to deter Pakistan from willfully violating Indian airspace with ammo-dropping drones along the IB in northern Punjab & the WB straddling Jammu.

To ARJUN: From 1 to 9): This is exactly what happens when one gets used to riding on others’ shoulders. Consequently, one’s own legs can’t muster the strength reqd for standing upright. 10) If that were to be the case, then Pakistan would not have constructed the fouble-fencing along the Durand Line. In fact, exactly the opposite is true, i.e. Pakistan will have to deploy substantial manpower for guarding the Durand Line.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANIZ: Not at all. Just releasing videos of missiles being fired does not mean they are part of a totally integrated weapons suite. Quad-packs for DRDO-developed air-launched ATGMs have been developed & were displayed at DEFEXPO-2012 expo & its images are available in this blog.

To BORED: VMT & as the saying goes…the TRUTH always sets one & all free. No harm at all in acknowledging the hard facts, instead of counter-productive back-patting & pushing matters under the rug, which continues to be rampant in India throughout officialdom. No one will admit to failures/deficiencies & hence no Inquiry Report never gets released or declassified by Indian officialdom. This will, inevitably, cause far greater damage to all Indian institutions in the times ahead.

To SATYAKI: No, because the Taliban has already stated that such groupings are welcome to stay in Afghanistan for as long as they do not indulge in any violence..

Agni-5 ICBM NOTAM: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E--yivlXMAMOwSC?format=jpg&name=large

To SUMANTA NAG: We must give credit to the CPC for openly announcing such timetables & then trying its level-best to stick to the timelines.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAGHU: It is educative, especially for those who have always been asking in this blog when will Uttam AESA-MMR be available for use by the IAF, just because it has been shown mounted on an LCA LSP-series aircraft!!! In the real world, algorithm development for various modes of operation is an extremely tedious & time-consuming process, which requires validation when used in a realistically simulated operational scenario. In case of X-band AESA-MMRs, they can directionally jam hostile X-band airborne radars while at the same time performing all other air-to-air & air-to-ground taskings, since each T/R module can perform a single tasking. Consequently, 500 T/R modules can perform up to 500 functions, also known as interleaved operations. What Northrop Grumman has achieved is the seamless integration of its self-protection suite with the APG-83 SABR AESA-MMR & also with low-band (C/D/E-bands)/mid-band (Ku- & Ka-bands) escort jammers/self-protection jammers, with the high-band (X-band) jamming being done by the SABR itself. Even the Rafale M-MRCA has such a high-level of systems integration. The IAF wants a similar standard for its Super Su-30MKIs. Therefore, those who are going ga-ga over UTTAM ought to think 10 times before sounding optimistic, since the DRDO has yet to procure such highly modified airborne widebodied testbeds that are reqd for developing fully functional AESA-MMRs.

To SUNIL ARYAN: That’s only one-half of the narrative. The other half that no one in India, unlike in the US, bothers to introspect on is why did India make it possible for Pakistan to become indispensable for the US? Why did India desist from establishing geographical contiguity with Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor in mid-1999, again in mid-2002 as well as in 2015, thereby greatly reducing Pakistan’s geographic importance? After all, the US was quite desparate for seeking overland access to Afghanistan since 1998 & was extremely frustrated at Pakistan’s consistent refusal to grant such access till September 11, 2001. This book explains it all:

http://www.lander.odessa.ua/doc/88_Days_to_Kandahar-A_CIA_Diary_by_Robert_L_Grenie.pdf

The severe mistakes in decision-making by India’s civilian leadership of that time continue to be glossed over. Has any Inquiry been conducted to date on the IC-814 hijack incident of late 1999? Has anyone been held accountable to date for the series of lapses? Why was the then Govt of India so over-awed by the Clinton Administration& why did it, through the Sahara Group, pump so much money into the US Democratic Party at that time?

To SANJAY: 1) Far from being fanboy stuff, these are all narratives officially published by govt-funded think-tanks of China. 3) First prototypes will emerge within the coming 5 years.

Discussion on the PLAAF: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQedM3qBXgc

China's First Private-Sector UAV T & E Base: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AphMQJS-Ck

Fundamentals of Time & Gravity: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OT2T-wKNCo

Sarathi said...

@Prasun,da
1)Recently IAF bought 6 vhf radar from alpha design. Do you know what's the range of those radars? I found nothing on their website.
2) also navy bought 14 anti sub def systems from mahindra. So is there any type of vds, towed array sonar in that system?
3) what's happened to alpha tocol 'eagle eye' r 118 rwr project ? Also how useful those rwr against modern aesa Lpi radar?
4)how useful el/l 8222 is against modern aesa lpi radar? Is that an aesa based jammer?
5)any news about drdo developd aditya precitech produced aspj?

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

"We must give credit to the CPC for openly announcing such timetables & then trying its level-best to stick to the timelines."----Prasun Da, therefore, drawing wrath of its rivals, will lead to its downfall. BTW, Don't know about India, that whether GoI will loss Arunachal Pradesh 15-20 years of time, but yes, there is lot to do about infrastructure in that state for smooth and hazardless connectivity. Also, you have stated IA is on the Higher Ground there. Meanwhile this report states that BADP (Border Area Development Programme) allocation is decreasing, and lack of basic amenities as well as infrastructure and unemployment leads to Migration in alarming rates from the districts bordering TAR of PRC.

https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/lack-of-infrastructure-employment-opportunities-behind-migration-arunachal-cm-pema-khandu

"He said people residing in the border areas are the first line of defence for the country's security. "We should work to provide them all required facilities. We will approach the Home Ministry for providing more fund under BADP".

The Arunachal Pradesh government will plan in a synchronized manner to take back the people who have already migrated, he said and disclosed that investments in agri and horti sectors and development of model villages would help in minimizing the problem.

Khandu said the state government has proposed a special package of Rs 4195 crore involving five line departments to the union home ministry for development of infrastructure in the border areas.

"The proposal is pending with the union cabinet. Once it is cleared, the border areas will be developed with all amenities so that migration can be stopped," he said and promised to pursue the matter with Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to Delhi next month."

What is GoI doing to stop the Chinese misadventure, or is It clueless ? Please share your views .

Thanks in advance.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

In the backdrop of CCP's such announcement, Prasun Da, what's your view on the meeting or discussion between Joe and Xi which took place recently ?

Raj Gupta said...

Prasun da

This Chinese dream of capturing Taiwan by 2020-25 seems very unrealistic. If China manages to get a hold on that Island in the initial stages of the conflict U.S will not intervene. If Joe Biden could get releccted it would be good for China.

2)Chinese have been creating trouble in Ladakh and also Sikkim since atleast 2007 but not much in Arunachal Pradesh which they claim as whole territory. Why?

Thanks

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1-Did China Buy Russian Ka 52K For their Type 075 LHD?
2- What lessons are there for the indian strategic think tanks to take from the way Pakis orchestrated afghan take over? and what reniforcements are needed? meanwhile intersting but farily correct writeup--http://idrw.org/washington-has-an-endless-appetite-for-islamabads-con-games/ . What does te US see in Pakis?
3- Biden seeking out Xi for rapproachment? the democrats, the labour party in UK & the likes across the white continent have taken over the so called free world.
4- As expected Pakis(bajwa) raising humanitarian crisis bogey..UN chooses to be silent on terrorists taking over afghan but wants jump and be the first to go feed or pay millions to feed afghans.. Its literally saying to the pakis-taliban-prc gang that we will pick the tab & clean ur muck...That bi**h who used head the UN human rights council screams from the roof tops about india but is silent on this issue.They go tom toming about the black lives matter but do not comment on radical islam.. It just shows how lefist ideology has penerated everywhere like hydra from Marvel comics. not that I am a fan of any extreme positions.. just pointing out..
5- Russian positions seems to be swaying depending on which side of the bed Putin gets up
6- Your take pls --http://idrw.org/agencies-tracking-turkey-based-groups-anti-india-activities-in-nepal/.Now the 3 brothers exercise
7- http://idrw.org/pakistan-demands-un-investigation-on-death-of-92-year-old-geelani/ - what's interesting is Pakis use of UN forums at the drop of the hat historically but India simply avoids doing it why?
8- How have the GCC countries aligned themselves wrt afg situation & pakis throwing a punch above their weight by openly humilating the US...what can India expect from them..

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SARATHI: ELBIT Systems/ALPHA MBR-3D radar for IN's NADS (not for IAF): https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-HuyaMVIAgCVlJ?format=jpg&name=large

https://twitter.com/louischeung_hk/status/1436627037414834179

INS Anvesh: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-rljXfWQAI1Oee?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhK-X3juGZA

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/sea-trials-for-floating-missile-test-range-ins-anvesh-begin-this-month-101630984781024.html

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ZOPeW1Gf7OM/WtKAtZXChII/AAAAAAAAOTc/wIJlWvzwZ3Yv4vEdCn7ApON7hDHQ0WQ7wCLcBGAs/s1600/SLS-1.jpg

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HHI_X0emq6M/WtKAvnAx0WI/AAAAAAAAOTk/tfqPPYc-tOUuARYuOnaDZcHHv82m4h3wQCLcBGAs/s1600/SLS-2.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bEtobQ7Xoqg/WtKAwxsan7I/AAAAAAAAOTo/vko0tPAAYDwRdkfI1mHpIWNqqBUHjVi7wCLcBGAs/s1600/SLS-3.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1sp-3QDh3H4/WtKAynu1EYI/AAAAAAAAOTs/6ZLUGjZRCzQ3BB9_Dq3Ii_6UdgExM9dAwCLcBGAs/s1600/SLS-4.jpg

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NOo9cOoVNWU/WtKAzz03yeI/AAAAAAAAOTw/Eoz5mzOLJd4fT7kDybnQyAPspsh4L9PzACLcBGAs/s1600/SLS-5.jpg

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Some interesting developments coming from Afghanistan :

A. Talibans are eliminating remaining NDS Counter Terrorism specialists.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/the-taliban-tracked-down-and-killed-4-afghan-counterterrorism-agents-in-one-case-pulling-out-all-their-fingernails-report-says/ar-AAOm4hm?ocid=BingNewsSearch

https://www.news18.com/news/world/exclusive-classified-afghanistan-data-in-pakistan-hands-3-planes-fly-back-with-bags-of-documents-4189937.html

--Pure Handwork of ISI and callous attitude from the top boss of the NDS (it calls for destruction of all documents and hardware before going underground).

B. USA relocating Afghan Air Force Pilots from Uzbekistan to its base in Doha , Qatar.

https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/World/20210912/3818266.html

C. Over Hundreds of Afghan Special Forces trained by the UK, wants immediate evacuation.

https://news.sky.com/story/afghanistan-at-least-400-uk-trained-afghan-special-forces-troops-hiding-from-taliban-and-want-uk-evacuation-12402298

D. While Talibans are busy in Photo ops in Panjsir plains, cracks appearing (due to shameless 'Dalali' for Haqqanis by the Pakjabi ISI Head:

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/destroying-everything-audio-reportedly-shows-cracks-in-pakistan-taliban-relations/ar-AAOm0iz?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Prasun Da it seems your prediction is getting true , Pakistan is getting its leg fixated into Afghan Quicksand, Loan Shark would also get the test of sand in place of blood and flesh, if it brews further, I doubt whether, India's civilian leaders have the guts to seize the opportunity in the troubled water ?

Praksh said...

Prasun da

https://youtu.be/QA4vVUbD3Zk

At 47:20 this U.S guest Jonah Blank says India has the option of not engaging with the Taliban at all and responding with military action if needed.

Why do these Americans live in self deluding world? Mr.Katju later pointed out that Military action is infeasible and if the U.S and allies couldn't win what could India do by intervening?

I hope that GOI doesn't blindly believe whatever the Americans spew and get itself in a quagmire. India's national interests call for engaging the Taliban.

Mr.Katju rightly mentioned that India's extended Western neighborhood is becoming fully hostile to India. Already because of U.S we have had troubles with Iranians, Pakistanis are irreconcilables and now Afghanistan is under Taliban control.

The Northern Alliance is buried under Panjshir unfortunately or frozen for now.

India should go for Geo-economics now.
China also has for a long time not engaged in extra-regional conflict.
If we have to face the long term threat from China economic growth should be priority.

Thanks

Praksh




Sanjay said...

Australia's Defence policy explained

https://youtu.be/MTCqXlDjx18

Have a good laugh ������.

Sanjay

Harish said...

Prasun da

https://youtu.be/JliLaXx46AI

1)Why do the Indian Navy's top brass keeps calling the two leased MQ-9B as HALE UAV when they are MALE UAV? Do they have their own standards for UAVS?

2) The CNS also mentioned that our Missile from BMD program the AD1 can be modified for use as Anti ship ballistic missile similar to the claimed Chinese ones.(Of course he also mentioned that it is far too complex for the Chinese ASBMs to be an effective weapon due to complex kill chains) Can you shed some light on how can this be done?

Thank you

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SARATHI: 2) They are meant for the SW-ASW craft & will be the same as those built by BEL. 3) They are already being installed on Su-30MKIs at several air bases. The R-118 RWRs are built by BEL. 4) Had already uploaded all such data in a thread dealing with IAF’s EW suites. 5) it is FAKE NEWS.

To SUMANTA NAG: 1) The situation is FAR WORSE in Uttarakhand where about 700 villages are lying completely abandoned, since all the village-folk have moved down to the plains for seeking job prospects. 2) China is alarmed at the extraordinary expansion of foreign naval presence that is now there in the South China Sea, with navies of South Asia, East Asia & Europe all engaged in some form of multilateral exercises. This had never happened before & hence Xi was forced to talk to Biden in order to reduce the tensions, which is taking a hgh toll on the PLAN in terms of their warship deployments as well as high stress on the warship crews.

Reasons for Failure in Afghanistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMglJieKR54&t=173s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxUJoOjPI00&t=80s

Who's Funding the Taliban? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p5rIjOSlww&t=308s

Afghanistan’s Timelines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeRGI7CRVlM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S93p_cdwfnE

Afghanistan’s Currency Crisis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHKiJZ7p64o

https://www.efsas.org/publications/study-papers/the-durand-line-a-razors-edge-between-afghanistan-and-pakistan/

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/economy-development-environment/afghanistans-looming-economic-catastrophe-what-next-for-the-taleban-and-the-donors/

To RAJ GUPTA: 1) China does not want to physically annex Taiwan. As I had explained several times before, China is primarily interested in gaining custody of all the imperial treasures & documentation that the Kuomintang had taken to Taiwan from Nanking. Ownership & custody of such materials will greatly strengthen the PRC’s claims of being the true & only representative of all things & matters Chinese. 2) It has been going on in Arunachal Pradesh, the most being the Sumdorong Chu/Wangdung Incident of 1986. That was the 2nd standoff, following the 1967 Nathu La & Cho La standoffs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) It is FAKE NEWS, being spread by this Hongkong-based internet fanboy:

https://twitter.com/louischeung_hk/status/1436627037414834179

2) The US policy as I had stated yesterday is simple: since you have broken it, you from now on own it. 3) No. China is alarmed at the extraordinary expansion of foreign naval presence that is now there in the South China Sea, with navies of South Asia, East Asia & Europe all engaged in some form of multilateral exercises. This had never happened before & hence Xi was forced to talk to Biden in order to reduce the tensions, which is taking a high toll on the PLAN in terms of their warship deployments as well as high stress on the warship crews. 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) India too should compile a list of hundreds of PoJK residents who have been killed while in police/military custody & demand an investigation by the Geneva-based UNHRC. But most interesting is the sudden surfacing of Ayman Al-Zawahiri & his reference to Kashmir at the same time as Pakistan bringing up the Kashmir issue again. Therefore, it won’t come as a surprise if he were pinned down to a location in North Waziristan in the near future, enjoying the PA’s hospitality. That also explains why the PA has gone on an overdrive to publicise its security activities there:

FATA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XGBCJyzL_Zg&t=31s
Tirah Valley: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcWNFn3lCds
Ayman Al Zawahiri Surfaces: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruz3eaoWw7I

To PRAKSH: LoLz! In fact, he was being extremely polite & suggesting that it is high time India started punching according to her weight, i.e. make some serious military moves in GB so as to inch closer to the claimed IB along the Wakhan Corridor. Folks like Vivek Katju were only muddying the waters by giving false & irrational narratives. Taking military action to reach the Wakhan Corridor is not the same as militarily intervening inside Afghanistan, although I am of the view that even if India maintains a credible military presence in the provinces of northern Afghanistan, it won’t be the same as the US presence since the populace of northern Afghanistan will become India’s military presence with open arms, unlike the largely dogmatic & illiterate Pashtun populace of southeast & central Afghanistan, which supply the bulk of the Taliban’s manpower & who had bitterly opposed both US & other NATO military forces over the past 20 years. In comparison, northern Afghanistan was largely peaceful from 2002 till 2019. . The Panjshiris, Uzbeks & Hazaras are liberal-minded as they are also educated & that’s precisely why they don’t want to live in any Islamic Emirate. But regrettably, India’s ‘netas’ do not possess the kind of strategic visioning that’s reqd to figure all this out.

To HARISH: LoLz! That’s because for the IN’s CNS the turboprop-powered Sea Guardians can cruise at far higher altitudes than the Rotax engine-powered Searcher Mk.2s & Heron-1s. 2) No one in this world has developed ASBMs capable of hitting moving warships, rest assured. The XR-SAM, part of the AAD family of endo-atmospheric interceptors, will be test-fired from INS Anvesh & once fully developed, will be installed on the IN’s next-generation guided-missile destroyers, just as variants of the S-400 & Standard family of LR-SAMs are equipping Russian & US/South Korean & Japanese DDGs. The naval XR-SAMs with Ka-band RF seekers will be able to intercept Pakistan’s IRBMs & TBMs that are likely to be launched from southeastern Balochistan & the Makran coastline against targets in India’s western seaboard.

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

As far as supplying grains and other consumables to the Afghans, perhaps it is time the world asked the Talibs to cut down the poppy cultivation in Afghan farms and start growing their own grains, pulses, fruits etc. in its place.

The world does not have any obligation to feed a population that cultivates and produces raw material for drugs in its soil on a mass scale, processes it into heroin and deliberately exports it.

Regards

Raghu

just_curious said...

Prasun ,

1- there seems to be no movement either for Super Sukhoi nor the Jaguar upgrades nor has there been any movement on buying of additional 21 mig 29's. Are these put off for the nxt financial year?
2- Shouldn't IN go for another Vikrant incorporating some more advanced features & ship building processes and have a 65+tonner once Vikramaditya is set to retire in the nxt 15-20 yrs? by that time new designs like that showcased by Hyundai or future french aircraft carrier will have moved much ahead from the concept phase

just_curious said...

Prasun,

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/taliban-hates-pakistan/20210913.htm.. interesting analysis & seem more closer to reality ..

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

"The XR-SAM, part of the AAD family of endo-atmospheric interceptors, will be test-fired from INS Anvesh "

-----So, SLS(Ship Lunching System) will be utilised now, as evident from the slides you have provided Dada. Prasun Da, Will it be a one of ship or any other is in the pipeline ?

Will the upcoming test firing of Agni - V will be mirv - ed ?

Thanks in advance, Dada.

Our policymakers should awaken to the fact that nobody should spoon feed you, you should have to feed yourselves, alas, that what realism has been shown in 1971, is missing now.



Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
Can you please update objective of 3 brothers exercise being held in Pak

Regards,
Chintan

Raghu said...

Hi

A detailed report on the looming disaster in Afghanistan

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/economy-development-environment/afghanistans-looming-economic-catastrophe-what-next-for-the-taleban-and-the-donors/

Regards

Raghu

Sarathi said...

@Prasun da
As per this report drdo successfully tested mirv warhead technology during agni-p test.is that true? Or fake news
https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/2021/sep/13/india-to-conduct-first-user-trial-of-agni-v-missile-2357942.amp

pm said...

Sir did Tejus Mk2 ditch the levcons and went for canards instead? If so what are the pros and cons of the design change.

pm said...

https://youtu.be/b1IJ9kqBilE

Sir What is your opininion on this analysis?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAGHU: Things are working out in a manner similar to what I had explained late last week:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-in-touch-with-india-regarding-over-the-horizon-support-blinken/articleshow/86186584.cms

https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan-taliban-relations/31458393.html

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/irans-foreign-minister-to-visit-india-as-new-taliban-govt-begins-to-settle-in-afghanistan/732380/

To SARATHI: Claim: Defence sources said the next trial of Agni-V missile assumes significance as it may be equipped with the MIRV capable of carrying multiple warheads. Though the MIRV capability of the missile was secretly tested during a multi-satellite launch, no live launch has been conducted so far. “For the first time, the indigenous MIRV technology was tested successfully in Agni P missile with the weapon delivering two manoeuvrable warheads at two separate locations.

Reality: Firstly, MIRVs cannot be secretly tested because the probable areas of MIRV impact in the high seas (international waters) have to be notified in advance through NOTAMs. Secondly, how can MIRVs' trajectories be tracked & monitored when the tracking vessel's commissioning was only on September 10, way after the Agni-P's first test-launch? Thirdly, no BM carries just MIRVs. Decoy MIRVs are also launched & therefore to claim that Agni-P launched two MIRVs is delusional. Therefore, in conclusion, that news-report is FAKE NEWS.

To PM: LEVCONs were used on NLCA Mk.1 because of the shorter fuselage of the Mk.1. The MWF has a 1-metre longer fuselage that enables the usage canards & hence LEVCONs are not required for the MWF.

To SUMANTA NAG: Yes, now that INS Dhruv is available, it will be possible to obtain data-points related to the MIRVs' re-entry flight trajectories. INS Anvesh is only a test vessel used for developing various kinds of universal missile launchers & fire-control systems/LRTRs reqd for using XR-SAMs for theatre-level ballistic missile defence. The final operatonal configurations will be installed on the IN's next-generation DDGs.

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

Interesting reports. Where do you think it will lead to?

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-will-look-at-pakistans-role-in-last-20-yrs-blinken-tells-lawmakers/articleshow/86188803.cms

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-involved-in-harbouring-taliban-must-line-up-blinken-101631579468773-amp.html

Regards,

Raghu

murthy said...

if US is discussing to use Indian land to do something regarding afghan, is MODI has the capacity or shrewdness or political will to say to US in crystal clear terms that the first condition in such a scenario is capturing the GB and there by having continuous border with Afghanistan?

or being nodding donkeys and allowing to use indian bases and there by attracting the wrath of attacks in india?

what will be MODI in this scenario? A nodding donkey or a lion?

need to see. (I had high hopes on him but he utterly failed to be a PM and at least a human when families decided to walk 1200- 1800 kilometres back to their homes in 2020 corona times, with small children, some being pregnant, with all the belongings. In one news an 8 year Girl walked 1200 kilometers and after reaching home she passed away with exhaustion , just made my brain numb, and thinking of pregnant woman? Pls God, put some brain in Modi)

let us see this time, what he says to US

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- while you seem to be convinced that US-india have a deep convergence on afghanistan, what does bliken mean by -When it comes to Afghanistan, it's focused, of course as well, on, on India and the role that India is playing in Afghanistan, and it looks at it through that prism as well.. is he implying india is also a cause ??? also he mentioned about US assesin its relations with pakistan .. what happens next?
2- If US & west & others start feeding Afghans on humanitarian basis .. what more can taliban /pakis & china ask for ? major issue is taken care of .. as it is most afghans are happy with the most basic roti kapda & makan ..most poor afghans wouldnt even bother about kapda as well
3- US withdrawing sam batteries out of saudi arabia.. what does it signify?
4- Vietnam opts for Japan as its defense partner
5- Will US now warm up to ruskies on afghanistan and other regions in its clash with China?
6- Mullah Baradar dead/ left out. how true is it & how significant? basically Qatar faction being eased out by pakis .. how will GCC & Qatar take it? 'coz pakis will need to go there again with their begging bowl

Anonymous said...

There was a news that electric drive in ATAGS will be replaced by hydraulic.
Why ? Is it going the Arjun way ?
What about 150 numbers orders ?

Regards
Venky

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Since Agni-P has not yet been tested with MIRVs, can we conclude that the upcoming Agni-V test would be with a single warhead only ?

Satyaki

SOUBHAGYA said...

Dear Prasun,

As per your chronology of joining the dots, something is cooking. Everything is going on the track as per your calculated estimation.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS, RAGHU, MURTHY & SOUBHAGYA: What both India & the US are now facing are STRATEGIC INEVITABILITIES, i.e. ground realities that are dictated by the evolving environment & the tyranny of geography. For example, there are now 3 contiguous countries all claiming to represent the true virtues of Islam: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran & Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Will they engage in competitive bench-marking? Of course, because each of the 3 represent 3 different types of ideological & theocratic schools of thought on sectarian Sunni/Shia lines. This represents the greatest destabilising threat to the immediate neighbourhood & to the respective Muslim communities at large. In India, therefore, this now manifesting itself in greater global & domestic attention being drawn to Deoband, whose teachings the Taliban & its Pakistani supporters abide by. Obviously this represents another tectonic calamity of sorts for India’s Muslim populace & hence early attempts are being by Naseeruddin Shah to educate his ‘Qaum’ by reading the writing on the wall. At the regional level, a centralised Afghan Islamic Emirate will claim to represent the true interests of Islam & thus will begin a spate of competitive benchmarking between Afghanistan, Iran & Pakistan on who is the good, better & best Muslim. The Taliban will also claim that it is best-suited to realise & establish the dream of the mythical Islamic paradise of Khorasan throughout Central Asia (which will bring into direct conflict with Russia & the CARs), while Turkey will claim that since the last Caliphate was Turkey-led, the future Caliphate too ought to be Turkey-led. Pakistan will claim that since the Arab Muslims first set foot beyond the Arabian peninsula in Sindh (Mohd bin Qasim), Pakistan is host to the world’s maximum numbers of ‘Pirs’ (those that trace their lineage to the Holy Prophet’s family). This in turn will lead to religiosity-inspired ideological feuds between Afghanistan, Turkey & Pakistan, while on the external front it will make Iran more jittery about the rise of a potent Sunni EMIRATE right at its doorstep. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & the UAE, who have invested a lot over the years to liberalise & shed their age-old orthodox religiosity-inspired sentiments, will be most unwelcoming about the existence of three such ‘Islamic’ entities & thus they will be more interested in focussing on the CARs with India’s & Russia’s assistance & support. They along with Egypt, Oman & Algeria will also remain deeply suspicious about the activities of Qatar & Turkey inside the Afghan Emirate.

At the financial/economic/administrative levels, The Taliban cannot be expected to gain experience in public administration & governance even over the next 6 months as it is just an uneducated irregular warfare outfit & hence Afghanistan will see intensive domestic turmoil. To make matters worse, donor countries have only PLEGDED humanitarian assistance, but have NOT transferred any money to any bank account. If, as expected, the countries decide to spend the money only through UN agencies like the WFP, then this process will take 3 months to fructify, by which time there will be acute scarcity of foodgrains, pulses, sugar & tea within Afghanistan. This in turn will cause the local population to en masse rise up in protest against the ruling Taliban dispensation by early next month. In addition, the number of refugees swelling up at all the border CIQ checkposts bordering the CARs, Iran & Pakistan will increase to uncontrollable levels, leading to likely bloodbaths. Neither Turkey nor Qatar will be willing to accept such refugees & this then will further increase ill-will against Ankara & Doha among the average Afghans.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The Taliban dispensation in Kabul will try its best to tide over the popular unrest by trying play (it has already begun) psychological games, i.e. blaming Pakistan for all the woes of Afghanistan & will publicly take an anti-Pakistan stance especially WRT Durand Line, since this is most likely to go well with the great majority of Afghan citizens, as they are already convinced that the Taliban came to power only with Pakistan’s active support. But this too will not be enough to assuage the angry Afghan populace. This then brings us to the likely course of events next year, especially military options which the US & India have the option of exercising. Six months is enough time for for the 2 countries to come up with a single integrated operational plan (SIOP) under which India would launch a limited 20-day AirLand campaign aimed at driving Pakistan out of Gilgit-Baltistan & achieving geographic contiguity with north-eastern Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor & the China-occupied Shaksgam Valley. China’s PLAGF, as past events have already shown, remains incapable of & unwilling to engage in high-altitude warfare & the Western Theatre Command’s (WTC) command-n-control hierarchy remains in a mess, as evidenced by three successive reshuffles of the WTC’s command hierarchy over the past 16 months.

To VENKY: Had already explained before that all-electric drives are LIGHTER than electo-hydraulic drives. Consequently, all such news-reports were FAKE NEWS.

To SATYAKI: Why should Agni-P or Agni-5 be tested with unitary warheads now that the INS Dhruv is already available & is now in service?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

REAL-LIFE SPY STORIES: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZDFY2Wzx9Q&list=PLNSD0EXJ-HpI2dx1FMTITt5ylb5-CJHVn&index=13

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x6l2G_0iyY&list=PLNSD0EXJ-HpI2dx1FMTITt5ylb5-CJHVn&index=11

Umling La, Ladakh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igesd80FulE

When Mullah Omar Refused To Accept Durand Line https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLgtDWRQE6M

China Needs to Learn Foreign Policy-Making from Russia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wIItbXIgwU

Kabul Garage Sales: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHGCn_Y62uk

Jiangxi Copper to Develop Mes Aynak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnRQbeqUrYQ

Excellent Description of T-14 Armata MBT:

https://konflikteundsicherheit.wordpress.com/2021/08/28/russias-t-14-armata-main-battle-tank-data-facts-myths/

Mohit Chand said...

won't Pakistan collapse if Gilgit Baltistan is forcefully snatched... bcoz the desire to liberate Kashmir is what is keeping them together

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

With news/rumours/speculation floating around that US has requested airbases & staging points in NW India for dealing with terrorists in AfPak, India could give them few such in Gilgit Baltistan, since it's in the NW of India while ofcourse India would need to get it back first😉 for which maybe US can help, after all India with it's strategic & tactical timidity was unable to do so from 1948 to 1999 & even after that😆😆😆

If that is how it actually pans out, the only thing I shall say is " Aapke Charan kidhar hai Prabhu, aap antaryaami naa shi, you are clarivoyant, if not a logical analyst unlike Shri Pravin Sawhney who sees the issues remarkably as you do but arrives at very different conclusions, which again can't be wished away even though be makes PRC look like intellectual geniuses if not 9 feet tall!

Karnflakes said...

What form of military help do you think the US would provide vis a vie Gilgit . You have stated yourself that the IA needs a lot more helicopters for an assault in the mountains.

bored said...

"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & the UAE, who have invested a lot over the years to liberalise & shed their age-old orthodox religiosity-inspired sentiments, will be most unwelcoming about the existence of three such ‘Islamic’ entities & thus they will be more interested in focussing on the CARs with India’s & Russia’s assistance & support. "
September 15, 2021 at 7:33 AM

we were told Saudi exports hardline islam around the world and esplly in South Asia along with massive funds. and they have now become better?

isn't turkey becoming another pakistan to india by supplying modern weapons to pakistan, by providing diplomatic and religious support to pakis, raising kashmiri voice, providing material and spy support in kashmir, in nepal against indian interests? and at the same ignoring chinese suppression of muslims.

bored said...

@Mohit Chand
if that happens it will solve half of the issues the world faces..
in general it is lahore that runs the show in pakistan and keeps most hatred towards india.
if karachi along with balochistan gets independence, lahore will lose the sea access and it will be landlocked and will keep its tail in its legs.

but in reality it is a big ask in the given circumstances, but the seed of partition lies in india capturing GB.

Praksh said...

Mr.Prasun

1)https://history.state.gov/milestones/1953-1960/seato

How come these Pakistanis became members of SEATO when they are not even a SE Asian nation?

Well only 2 members were SE Asian nations Thailand and Phillipines.
But US,UK, France, Australia,NZ they were all Extra-regional powers.

Ofcourse the above article mentions that Pakistan become a member only to gain Military and Economic aid to Counter India.

2)I think there will be nothing substantive wrt GB b/w India and U.S.

a)The SIOPs only exist for Maritime Domain because India falls under USINDPACOM and Pakistan CENTCOM.

b)The Current state of Indian Military does not seem to be capable of such operations.

c)Only ops that can be launched are shallow thrusts.

d)Even Former CoAS VP Malik mentioned that the time taken by us to retake GB will be very long and in the meantime International pressure will call for Ceasefire immediately.

d) Huge economic and human costs might have to be paid for this adventure.

e)If U.S helps India and India succeeds we will be deeply indebted to U.S and how that will be paid only the Americans know.

f)New challenges will come like more focus on Northern borders meaning reduced focus on Maritime Domain, Insurgency in GB and J&K.

Thanks Praksh

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

India's CDS said today that Indian Army will raise a "Rocket Force"

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/status/1438110791090286596?s=20

What will this Rocket Force comprise of?

Thanks,

VIKRAM

murthy said...

german public Broadcaster:

'An investment in terror' - What role does Pakistan play in the Taliban's resurgence? | DW News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLfZrzN7Ipw


paki cunt: Pak girl backs Taliban, but won't live under them

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsyT-euZoWk

Satya said...

Sir, Australia has scrapped its deal with France for SSKs and will work with US to acquire nuclear attack submarines. We should also scrap the P-75I deal and expand the Project 75 Alpha SSN project from 6 to 9 boats. Three additional Scorpenes can be purchased as an interim option to fill critical requirement. P-75I will be the worst acquisition in our history. Hope it is scrapped.

bored said...

Hi Prasun,
you commented:

At the financial/economic/administrative levels, The Taliban cannot be expected to gain experience in public administration & governance even over the next 6 months as it is just an uneducated irregular warfare outfit & hence Afghanistan will see intensive domestic turmoil. To make matters worse, donor countries have only PLEGDED humanitarian assistance, but have NOT transferred any money to any bank account. If, as expected, the countries decide to spend the money only through UN agencies like the WFP, then this process will take 3 months to fructify, by which time there will be acute scarcity of foodgrains, pulses, sugar & tea within Afghanistan. This in turn will cause the local population to en masse rise up in protest against the ruling Taliban dispensation by early next month. In addition, the number of refugees swelling up at all the border CIQ checkposts bordering the CARs, Iran & Pakistan will increase to uncontrollable levels, leading to likely bloodbaths. Neither Turkey nor Qatar will be willing to accept such refugees & this then will further increase ill-will against Ankara & Doha among the average Afghans.

Cont'd below...

September 15, 2021 at 7:33 AM

A youtube user nameD SUSAN GOMES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHGCn_Y62uk&lc=UgzOy_ulwy-Ta4xW73h4AaABAg
Susan Gomes
13 hours ago
Taliban cannot be expected to gain experience in public administration & governance as it is just an uneducated irregular warfare outfit & hence Afghanistan will see intensive domestic turmoil.There will be acute scarcity of foodgrains, pulses, sugar & tea within Afghanistan. This in turn will cause the local population to en masses rise up in protest against the ruling Taliban dispensation


JUST COPIED YOUR COMMENTS in this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHGCn_Y62uk&lc=UgzOy_ulwy-Ta4xW73h4AaABAg

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChkuMJdoG4PyW_05icZ3BDQ

Anonymous said...

Greetings Mr Prasun ,
I don't get the logic of the iaf.
Why is the iaf adamant on having an aircraft zoo in india

1) pc7 , htt40 as basic trainers,
2) An32re,c295,c130j30 all for essentially the same cargo carrying missions
3) erj 145 and a319 for aew&cs
4) bombardier and Gulfstream for elnit/signit.
5) super expensive mirage upgrade + all new rafale instead of just buying more rafale.
6) ka228 and HAL LUH as light utility helicopters
7) saras and do228
8) Having il76 as well as c17 as strategic airlifters
9) simultaneously having ah64 and mi24 hind
10) buying ch47 yet not retiring the mi26
11) their itch to buy a330mrtt while also having il78 tankers


add to this the habit of placing piecemeal orders for tejas and projecting just 170 for the MWF while still thinking about going for 114 imported jets.

By 2040 IAF will have retired all legacy fighters except the sukhoi,
The force will in all probability have
200 su30 (upgraded)
080 rafale (f3r/f4)
120 lca mk1a

Wouldn't it be better to go in for a minimum of 400 mwf and ideally 600 mwf with a production rate of 60 aircraft per year starting 2030 to reach 40-50 squadrons.

It seems like complete madness that for allmost every role we have multiple platforms from different vendors.

Is my simple mind missing something
Is there a well thought out reason why things are the way they are.
Kindly clear my confusion sir.
Thanks and Cheers.

-SimpleJack

Manish 2 said...

prasunda,

1) What is the composition of an IAF Barak-8 battery/squadron ?
how many launchers, missiles, radars etc is an unit equipped with ?

2) does this composition differ from a typical IA AD regiment ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MOHIT CHAND: Far more than collapse, it will create acute water scarcity since India will then have total control over the Indus River’s flow into Pakistan & will thus be able to hold Pakistan accountable for all the water that it has been consuming since the late 1960s without financially compensating the inhabitants of PoJK.

To KAUSTAV & KARNFLAKES: There are two aspects here: the US acquiring bases & expanding them like Bagram, Kandahar, Kunduz or Mazhar-e-Sharif for sustaining large-scale expeditionary forces; or acquiring landing/takeoff & parking rights at existing IAF air bases in J & K and Ladakh for mission-specific ISTR sorties by both manned platforms & UAVs. In my view, the former is totally ruled out, since India’s armed forces are totally capable of doing the warfighting reqd for physically making it to the Wakhan Corridor & Shaksgam Valley. What is reqd from the US is only airlift capability, i.e. heavylift platforms like CH-53 Super Stallions & MV-22 Ospreys, which can easily operate from the airstrips alongside existing national highways within J & K & Ladakh UTs. In all, about six such airstrips are reqd to serve as ALGs & they all can easily be constructed over a 6-month period. Once contiguity with Wakhan Corridor is established, the US expeditionary forces can use this corridor to fly into Kunduz & Mazar-e-Sharif unopposed at the ‘invitation’ of the NRFA, because legally speaking, until the Taliban regime drafts a new Constitution, the present-day Constitution of Afghanistan remains in place as a valid instrument & under this the Acting President has the powers to take all national executive decisions. India too can use this instrument to set up a forward operating logistics base (for both battlefield logistics & humanitarian relief distribution work) inside Badakhshan for supporting the NRFA forces spread throughout northern Afghanistan. Liberation of GB will be possible if a no-fly zone is coercively created for only a 7-day period by joint IAF-USAF barrier CAPs, for which USAF AEW & CS support will be reqd on a 24/7 basis.

So what are Pakistan’s options? Active military opposition in the air is totally ruled out, since any attempted opposition by the PAF will result in 80% fleet attrition losses being incurred due to the decisive joint IAF-USAF force projection capabilities. On the ground, no mischief will be possible in the Chhamb-Sialkot sector, since the IA’s 31 & 33 Armoured Divisions have already been earmarked for this sector to blunt any PA ground offensive. And since military hostilities will be limited to only the terrain astride the WB & LoC, there will be no vertical escalation by either party under a nuclear overhang. This in turn will make it almost impossible for China to enter the fray in any meaningful military manner, given its severe shortcomings in the arena of high-altitude warfare.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BORED: The KSA under Prince MBS is already on an over-drive to reverse almost all past practices. Turkey is too far away to intervene in any manner in another round of Inda-Pakistan military hostilities, if such hostilities break out by next March.

To PRAKSH: 1) You yourself have answered that query. 2) Both INDOPACOM & CENTCOM are four-servce theatre commands & that’s why bilateral exercises have been conducted since 2005 between the armies, naves & air forces of both countries & hence military joint warfare operations are by no means confined to the naval domain. 3) There is never any better time & hence one has to make do with what one has got. That’s what happened in 1971 & again in 1999.

To VIKRAM GUHA: Here is the CDS’ lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x3p-c3MAsQ

This was known since 2001 itself & is part on the ongoing effort to transform from possessing ‘minimum credible deterrence’ to ‘credible minimum deterrence. Presently, the strategic BMs are under ‘Composite Missile Groups’ of the IA’s three Artillery Divisions, with the DG Artillery at Army HQ reporting to the SFC Commander. Under the new scheme, the land-based Strategic Rocket Forces Division will be reporting directly to the SFC Commander, while the IA’s Artillery Divisions will each have a Tube Artillery Brigade (with towed & self-propelled 155mm howitzer Medium Regiments), an MBRL Artillery Brigade (with both upgraded BM-21 Grad & Pinaka Regiments), and a Rocket Artillery Brigade that will use Regiments equipped with conventionally armed SS-BSMs like BrahMos-1s & Pralay-time missiles.

Meanwhile, here’s the video of the RoKN’s submarine-launched BSM with 450km-range:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhHYs62eej8

What’s interesting is that it has the same configuration as India’s K-15 SLBM, but the missile-body resembles Russia’s Iskandar-M SS-BSM. I would not be surprised at all if Russia used the good offices of BrahMos Aerospace to supply South Korea with certain specialised components like the first-stage booster, the missile canister & the expendable cannister-tip protective cupola. Unknown to many, India & South Korea have been strategic partners in several industrial arenas since the mid-1980s, starting with Seoul supplying India’s DAE with heavy water in large quantities in the 1980s when the DAE was running short of heavy water for its 235mW PHWRs.

But now it looks like even North Korea has overtaken India in the arenas of LACMs & SS-BSMs:

GLCM: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_HYlaeXMAA8i-_?format=png&name=900x900

KN-23 SS-BSM: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E_UjQR0WEAAIiLE?format=jpg&name=large

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Red Roulette: An Insider’s Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today’s China

https://theprint.in/opinion/eye-on-china/a-new-book-exposes-chinas-hidden-corruption-xis-family-and-ccp-have-a-lot-to-answer/733530/

Lockheed Skunk Works Active Sonar Stealth Submarine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnkkCd9IfZY

IA & Future Wars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQonf8tGeZU

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

Don't know how reliable the news in the following link is. If it turns out to be true, what are the geopolitical implications, given that Australia is also part of the Quad nations in the Indo-Pacific?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/australia-joining-us-uk-major-defense-tech-sharing-pact-counter-china

Regards

Raghu

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

However much of a jingo Major Gaurav Arya is catering to the Indians with an inferiority Pak-linked complex, he is singing the same tune as you of late both on PRC & PoK!

Interesting times ahead, I presume. Ofcourse there are both schools of thought & outcomes will as always be mixed. There is no reason to assume that Mr.Sawhney is right about PRC being a true all-round military & economic superpower with AI, networked informationised, intelligience, etc. but believing that PRC has a shaky foundation spl in the Himalayas is under-estimating the Enemy- both PRC & Pakistan+ terror arm/5th col.

Would be delighted to be wrong on the Enemy, but with US material help & tech. intelligence, it is doable. But ofcourse good sense may prevail in Pakistan & Afghanistan with such military action not being necessary at all. Getting G-B back wud ofcourse be an election winner if achieved with little pain which is doubtful & not logical

Karnflakes said...

So can we expect the Indian military to lease a some of these heavy lift platforms.. or will it be US personel operating them .. I don't think there is enough time to induct them .. you did not mention the Chinook is the v22 more desirable ?

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

See the following link. I wonder if it would it not be better for the CDS to go by ground realities instead of basing future strategies on theories of clash of civilizations

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/india-is-looking-to-raise-new-rocket-force-for-missiles-says-gen-bipin-rawat/articleshow/86247245.cms

Raghu

Sidharth said...

Prasun da,

All sudden internet is flooded with the abbreviation AUKUS (Australia United Kingdom United States) and rumors or speculation being spread that with compromised Biden QUAD will go on backburner and AUKUS will supersede it.

What's your point on it or the above just need to be tossed in the dustbin.

Anonymous said...

Some amazing posts by everyone. I have few question queries regarding the coming war:

1. How will we ensure that Pakis won't start a full blown war if anything happens in GB? Their record to date is the opposite, be it at the LoC or Balakote or Afghanistan against the USA/NATO.

2. Are we sure USA (i mean Biden here) wants to be involved? What do they get out of it, after having just ended their so-called 'forever' war? Latest polling there suggests, Biden decision is supported by approx 3/4 of their population. Biden wants to spend money on Infra in USA or are we saying we will bankroll them?

3. How can we be sure PLA won't enter the fray? Afterall they will lose (:-)) one of the few nations they can rely on. Will they give up on their dream of BRI & super power?

Apologies for asking far too many questions.

Dinish

bhoutik said...

Wow! Prashun bhai. caucasian solidarity & nationalism in full swing. supplying the tech to us would have made far more sense. but no deal with us or the japs. now handing this over to the kangaroos.

this will make it far easier for chinavirus to justify supplying noko and pakis with nuke propulsion.

did the GoI know about this?

please share your thoughts here. this is astounding bullcrap. after all the talk about texh co-op, they supply this to kangaroos, and co-develop mini-uavs with us. what a joke!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MANISH 2: Barak-8: 9 Squadrons = 18 Batteries = 54 launchers = 490 missiles
3 Regiments = 9 Batteries = 27 launchers = 200 missiles

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-i0z2tYn0s0o/VPm2dhDMsYI/AAAAAAAABwg/JWAbR2icACo/s1600/15MRSAM.jpg

To KARNFLAKES: For expeditionary operations, the USMC takes the lead, especially if it involves vertical envelopment operations using air-mobile forces.

To RAGHU: As I had explained above to VIKRAM GUHA, plans for raising a Strategic Rocket Force were drawn up by 2004 itself.

To SIDHARTH: The QUAD grouping is about a lot more than AUKUS. Here are some explanations on the latter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZLmzX5_Lqo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srsu772LGNM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYVGtAWDW7I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZHYTYa8paM

To DINISH: 1) No one initiates a full-blown war over disputed territory. And it is Pakistan, not India, that refers to J & K a disputed territory. 2) That’s why the military campaign will have to be kept limited to throwing out the Taliban only from northern Afghanistan, following which the local inhabitants will have to be armed & trained to protect their territories. That will be quite easy as the local populace there is anti-Taliban. 3) China too regards the PoK issue as a dispute between two countries, but since there are UNSC rulings about it, Beijing won’t take any decisive military steps.

To BHOUTIK: LoLz! Arey bhaya, why such hostility against Caucasians? Aren’t the Ruskies Caucasians too? One cannot compare Australia with India since the former is a signatory to the NPT, whereas India is not. There have always been plans for supplying such SSNs to Canada & Japan as well.

Rolls-Royce in India: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m08xMB5Vs8

Anonymous said...

Sirji,

1.) Should P-75I be the last conventional submarines for the navy ?
2.) Do you see the french raising the price of SMX after the australian deal is cancelled ?
3.) Do our submarines still lack HWT torpedos ? What's the status of submarine variant of Varunastra ?
4.) Is the Drdo ALT capable of launching from P-8Is.
5.) If afghanistan suffers economic meltdown, what will happen to Taliban's regular fighters ? Would they just join who ever pays them the most ? Won't Pakistan just get a large number of low cost foot soldiers for Kashmir ?
6.) What's your take on PMCs like Blackwater and Wagner gruop. Should India also have their equivalent.

-Bhvk

VIKRAM GUHA said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Karthik Barman said...

1) Any one at IN HQ taking notes?

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/09/radical-new-stealth-submarine-type-212cd-will-be-much-larger/

2) Is there more to this news? 110KN engine for AMCA/TEDBF. How about variable cycle engines?

https://theprint.in/defence/rolls-royce-ready-to-co-develop-manufacture-fighter-aircraft-engines-in-india/734062/

Praksh said...

Prasun da

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v19/d292

What happened to this US plan to provide 2 RAF fighter sqns and 1 USAF for the Air Defence of India? Also if it was possible they wanted to provide some contingent from Canada and Australia.

Exercise Shiksha was conducted in November 1963.

All 4 nations provided some sort of Aid to India after 1962.

Thanks
Praksh

bhoutik said...

Prashun bhai, were you surprised by this? Did you expect this?

What is the point of NPT if you are proliferating nuclear propulsion?

Did GoI know of this? Should we not have been informed? Why no such deal for Japan?

How will this play out? Will the nuke propulsion package be built in the states while the hull is assembled in Aus?

We operate nuke subs. Why aren't we a part of this deal? Could we not have contributed? Japs could have contributed. If not on the propulsion, then on other parts. Why were they not included?

What are your thoughts on Biden's performance and ability? Is this a case of cognitive decline as many are saying?

Sanjeev said...

What’s to make of this rolls Royce statement? Is this a plea by them to sign the Jaguar reengine?

Harish said...

Mr.Prasun

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rezhasan/status/779369368060735488


Why were Russians conducting exercises with Pakistanis in Gilgit-Baltistan in 2016?


Thanks

Harish

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Total 5 DRDO Employees (Contractual, most probably last one also) arrested for leaking information about Chandipur facility of DRDO, honey trapped I presume. Guessing what type of information ISI was seeking. Since, all of them were contractual, and not permanent DRDO employee, a money trap cann't be ruled out.

https://kalingatv.com/state/odishas-chandipur-espionage-case-another-employee-of-drdo-arrested-watch/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqKggAIhD3DYxAR3LSfV4qKZr69iUSKhQICiIQ9w2MQEdy0n1eKima-vYlEjCUuB0&utm_content=rundown


Mean while Talibans vowed to have a 'disciplined regular army', and question is that how will they do it, unless use highly radicalised Pakjabi Army.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

What differentiates 'QUAD' and 'AUKUS' :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPlIrfIU9ec

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/indian-businessman-abducted-at-gunpoint-in-kabul-report/ar-AAOuNV3?ocid=msedgntp

-- Prasun Da, I fear whether this Guy will end up like another 'Kulbhushan Jadhav' ?

Please share your views on my queries . Thanks in advance, Dada.