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Monday, May 11, 2020

Opposing Strategems On PoK; PLAGF High-Altitude Plateau Warfare Exercises in TAR; & ORBAT Of TMD

July 2018: China pledges US$2 billion in July last year to help Pakistan weather the economic crisis.
January 2019: China pledges to lend an additional $2 billion to Pakistan to increase the foreign exchange reserves of its South Asian ally.
December 2019: China and Pakistan agree in principle to implement a ‘Green Corridor’ inside PoK’s Gilgit-Baltistan region between the two countries. The ‘Green Corridor’ is to enable the quick clearance of perishable agricultural items via the Khunjerab Pass. The formal agreement, likely to be inked later in 2020, will permit Pakistani traders to export 313 items duty-free from the Sost Dry Port to Tashkurgan in China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region. Additional Customs staff will be deployed by Pakistan at the ‘Green Corridor’ to ensure minimum intrusive examination and automated processing. The Sost Dry Port, spread over 21 acres of land, has a perimeter length of 1,400 metres. In addition, an SEZ is being built at Moqpondass over an area of 250 acres.
March 16 to 17, 2020: Pakistani President Arif Alvi visits China from March 16 to 17 at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. In Beijing, he is told that China will consider all debt-relief options for Pakistan if it speedily resolves the constitutional and legal status of Gilgit-Baltistan, following which it will become possible for China to acquire a 99-year lease on the ‘Green Corridor’, similar to the arrangements made between China and Sri Lanka regarding the status of Hambantota SEZ.
April 30, 2020: A seven-member larger bench of The Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice Gulzar Ahmed accepts the plea of Prime Minister Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi’s PTI-led federal government to amend the Government of Gilgit Baltistan Order 2018 to conduct the general elections in September, as well as the setting up of a caretaker government during the interregnum period. The so-called Gilgit Baltistan government is presently headed by Chief Minister Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman of the PML (N) party. The PTI-led federal government intends to replace the PML (N)-led administratoive set-up in Gilgit-Baltistan with one led by the PTI so that it can push through the necessary necessary administrative and political legislation that legitimises the long-term leasing of Gilgit-Baltistan’s real estate to China under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) scheme.
May 5, 2020: Fearing a localised cross-LoC tactical offensive by India’s armed forces, the Pakistan Army (PA) and Pakistan Air Force (PAF) go on to a ‘high alert’ status, with increased operational combat air patrols (CAP) being mounted by the latter since then over northern Punjab and the whole of PoK.
May 6, 2020: Bombardier 5000A airborne standoff recce aircraft of the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) start flying out from the Indian Air Force’s Sarsawa AFS to monitor the PA’s ground force dispositions all along the LoC and WB on a daily basis.
May 8, 2020: Well aware of the China-Pakistan machinations, India’s Doordarshan and All India Radio begin broadcasting weather reports on Mirpur, Muzaffarabad and Gilgit in PoK in their prime-time news bulletins—this being a symbolic way of asserting India’s legal claims over PoK.
May 12, 2020: Prime Minister Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi orders the immediate commencement of work on the construction (with China’s technical and financial assistance) of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam in the Gilgit-Baltistan-Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) border. The main purpose of this dam is water storage and production of 4,500mW cheap and affordable electricity. The 6.4 million acres feet (MAF) water storage capacity of the dam will reduce the current water shortage in the country of 12 MAF to 6.1 MAF. It will also add 35 years to the life of Tarbela Dam by reducing sedimentation. An area of 1.23 million acres of land will be brought under agriculture in KPK.
May 12, 2020: China’s Ambassador to Pakistan Yao Jing calls on the PA’s Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa at GHQ in Rawalpindi to congratulate him on the commencement of construction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam.
The physical brawl and stone-pelting between the patrolling parties of the Indian Army (IA) and PLA Ground Forces’ (PLAGF) Border Defence Regiment (BDR) at an altitude of more than 5,000 metres in the Naku La sector in north Sikkim on May 9, 2020 afternoon (which was triggered after IA soldiers blocked an “aggressive” PLA-BDR patrol party in the area ahead of Muguthang) is most likely attributable to a jittery PLA-BDR being over-anxious to find out whether or not the IA was monitoring a PLAGF mechanised infantry exercise that has been underway for the past one week at the Gamba Country further up north.
This exercise, by all means a routine one, is being conducted to ensure the operational synchronisation of all elements of combined-arms manoeuvre warfare in various portions of the Tibetan Plateau. In Gamba, this involves the deployment for the very first time of the ZTQ-105/Type 15 main battle tanks (MBT) whose export designation is the VT-5, the PCL-181 (SH-15 being its export designation) 155mm/52-cal mounted gun system (MGS) and the Type 04A tracked ICV. Deliveries of all three type of weapon systems to the Tibet Military District (TMD) had commenced in late 2017 and their first combined-arms exercises were conducted since late December last year at the Seni-Nagqu Training Base.
The 35-tonne NORINCO ZTQ-105/Type 15 MBT, powered by a 780hp diesel engine (a clone of the USSR-era V46-6 engine), comes armed with a 105mm rifled-bore cannon. It was publicly unveilled at last year’s October 1 parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the PLA. In terms of vectronics, it incorporates almost all that is to be found on the heavier VT-4/MBT-3000 MBT.
The 25-tonne, air-mobile PCL-181 MGS started entering service in the Western Theatre Command’s TMD back in 2017 and has since also entered service with the artillery brigades of the PLAGF’s 71st, 72nd (9th Artillery Brigade, or Unit-73031) and 77th Group Armies. It uses a 6 x 6 wheeled Shaanxi truck chassis with an armoured cabin at the front (that also houses the digital ballistics computer and communications radios) and the AH-2 155mm/52-cal howitzer mounted at the rear. The howitzer has a powered traverse of 25 degrees left and right and powered elevation from 0-degree to 67.5 degrees. The howitzer is protected against firing of small arms and artillery shell splinters. The armoured cab also has two large bulletproof windows at the front and there are two doors on each side. The truck chassis is powered by a 400hp diesel engine with a 15.68hp/tonne power-to-weight ratio.
The PCL-181 can fire all NATO-standard 155mm ammunition and it uses a semi-automatic loading system. The barrel is fitted with a double-baffle muzzle-brake and when travelling, the barrel is held in position by a clamp, located to the immediate rear of the cab, which is operated by remote control. When the PCL-181 is deployed in the firing position, two large spades are lowered at the rear to provide a stable firing platform. For this, the truck chassis is fitted with a hydro-pneumatic suspension system. The PCL-181 has a minimum firing range of 20km and 53km with a rocket-assisted artillery projectiles. The entire MGS is operated by a crew of five. On each side of the truck chassis, there are storage boxes containing charges and ammunition, elevation and traverse are hydraulic with manual controls being provided as a back-up. Maximum rate of fire is up to six rounds per minute.
PLAGF ORBAT Of Tibet Military District
15 Engineer Brigade (located at Dazi, Lhasa) or Unit-77619, comprising the 308 Field Artillery Regiment, Lhasa; (Unit-77611), 16 Vehicle Regiment, Lhasa; Communications Battalion, Lhasa; and Special Operations Division, Lhasa (Unit-77606).

52 Mountain Brigade (located at Bayi village, Linzhi County) or Unit-77675, comprising an Artillery Regiment (located at Nixi, Bayi village, Linzhi County) or Unit-77678; 1st Battalion (Bujiu village, Linzhi County); 2nd Battalion (Yongjiu village, Linzhi County); 3rd Battalion (Yongjiu village, Linzhi County); and the 4th Battalion (Bujiu village, Linzhi County).

53 Mountain Brigade (Linzhi City, Milin County) or Unit-77680, comprising an Artillery Regiment (Jiage village, Linzhi City, Milin County) or Unit-77683; 1st Battalion (Wolong village, Linzhi City, Milin County); 2nd Battalion (Gangga village, Linzhi County); 3rd Battalion (Linzhi County); and the 4th Battalion (Wolong village, Linzhi City, Milin County).

54 Armoured Brigade (Lhasa City, Duilongdeqing County) or Unit-77625, comprising an Artillery Regiment operating PCL-09 22.5-ton 122mm motorised howitzers (now converted to the PCL-181 MGS), three Mechanised Infantry Battalions equipped with ZBD-04 tracked infantry combat vehicles (ICV); Medium Battle Tank Battalion using Type-96As (now converted to the VT-5 ZTQ-105 Type 15 MBT; and a Chemical Warfare Battalion.

The 308th Independent Artillery Brigade, armed with PCL-181 155mm 52-cal motorised howitzers, which was raised in the latter half of 2017 at Linzhi.

The 651 Independent Anti-Aircraft Artillery Brigade at Bayi Nyingchi. Since late 2012, this Brigade began taking over responsibilities from the HQ-12 ADK-12 KS-1D medium-range surface-to-air missiles of the PLA Air Force’s (PLAAF) 11th Anti-Air Artillery Brigade’s 22nd Regiment. The 651st today comprises a regiment of LY-80E 70km-range MR-SAMs (containing 16 TELs each loaded with six MR-SAM vertical launch-cells), a Regiment of 18 tracked PGZ-04As (each armed with four FN-6 VSHORADS launchers missiles and four 25mm cannons), a Regiment of FM-90 SHORADS, and a composite Battalion that has 108 FN-6 VSHORADS/MANPADS launchers, 24 Type 73 towed 37mm anti-aircraft guns and 18 towed twin 35mm PG-99 ‘Giant Bow’ anti-aircraft guns. Also included are LIMAN ground-based jammers, JY-27A VHF-band anti-PGM volume-search radars as part of the LY-80E MR-SAM regiment, YLC-18 S-band 3-D acquisition radars for the FM-90s (now replacing the older LSS-1/Type 120 L-band 2-D low-altitude acquisition radars), and YLC-6 S-band 2-D low-level air-defence radars for the FN-6s, Type 73s and PG-99s. For airspace surveillance, there are three Army-operated YLC-2V 3-D S-band acquisition radars. This Brigade stayed put at its peacetime location throughout the standoff period.
Supplementing the above-mentioned formations were the following Border Defence Regiments of Military Sub-Districts under TMD:

* 1st Border Defence Regiment (Shannan City, Longzi County) Unit-77629: China-India LAC and China-Bhutan Border.

* 2nd Border Defence Regiment (Shannan City, Cuona County) Unit-77635: China-India LAC and China-Bhutan Border.

* 3rd Border Defence Regiment (Shigatse City, Tingri County) Unit-77639: China-India LAC and China Nepal Border.

4th Border Defence Regiment (Chayu, Linzhi), Unit-77643: China-India LAC.

* 5th Border Defence Regiment (Shigatse City, Saga County) Unit 77646: China -Nepal Border.

* 6th Border Defence Regiment (Shigatse City, Yadong County) Unit-77649: China-India LAC and China Bhutan Border. (Nathu La outpost is the first outpost of South West, Zhangniangshe Outpost of the 6th Border Defense Regiment is the Yunzhong Outpost).

*1st Independent Battalion (Shigatse City, Gyantse County) Unit-77655: China-India LAC and China-Bhutan Border.

* 2nd Independent Battalion (Shigatse City, Gangba County) Unit-77656: China-India LAC. (Chaguola Outpost). Khamba Dzong (Gamba County for the Chinese) is not located close to Arunachal Pradesh, which is bordered by the Prefectures of Shannan and Nyingchi, but near the strategic Chumbi Valley—and the Siliguri Corridor.

* 3rd Independent Battalion (Beibeng village, Linzhi City, Medog County); Medog Garrison, Mofan.

* 4th Independent Battalion (Nanyi Township, Linzhi City, Milin County): China-India LAC.

* 5th Independent Battalion (Shannan City, Luoza County): China-Bhutan Border.

* 6th Independent Battalion Unit-77659: China-India LAC.
Nett Assessment Of PLAGF Activities & Deployments
Since the acclimatised formations the IA far outnumbers those of the PLA Army all along the LAC, and given the latter’s inability/unwillingness to maintain a large numbers of forward-deployed and fully acclimatised manpower along the LAC, the PLAGF clearly, just like the PLAAF, has adopted a strictly defensive force posture along the LAC in both Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, as well as around Ladakh. This is most probably due to the lessons learnt by the PLAGF in 1986 when, during the Wangdung/Sumdorong Chu standoff and the IA’s resultant launching of Op Falcon, the PLA Army had mobilised six of its Infantry Divisions (from the 13th and 14th GAs of the erstwhile Chengdu Military Region), which had taken more than two weeks to travel from locations in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces to their destinations opposite Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh. And since these reinforcements were not acclimatised, more than a thousand soldiers had then lost their lives to various diseases like malaria, typhoid, dysentry, etc.
In the western sector facing Ladakh, the PLAGF did not mobilise any reinforcements from either the TMD or neighbouring XMD during the Doklam standoff of 2017. Here too, once again, the biggest impediment of the PLAGF seems to be the lack of previous high-altitude plateau war-fighting experience at the Divisional and Corps levels. This was admitted to as much by the PLAGF’s Gen He Lei, one of the more hawkish voices asserting Beijing’s absolute rights to the South China Sea and elsewhere, when he made a telling observation at a Shangri La Dialogue-2018 in Singapore that reveals the PLA’s biggest weakness: China can’t match India where it counts. “I am retiring soon. My one big regret is that I never had a chance to fight in a war,” Gen. He remarked. He correctly identified what the Academy of Military Science of the PLA had previously admitted was the biggest weakness of China’s armed forces: inexperience. The PLAGF, PLAAF and PLA Navy, all owned by China’s Communist Party, has never fought a real all-out war after 1949. Its missions since then have centred around humanitarian relief and policing its own borders. Besides a brief fight with India in 1962 and Vietnam in 1979, the entire post-World War-II period for China has been peaceful. Meanwhile, the armed forces of India have engaged in regular battles. While much of China’s emerging new military doctrine seems sound in theory, it is yet to be tested. While the armies and air forces of India and China may both appear combat-ready, one of them will not be able to fight their way out of a wet paper-bag and the other one will rock anything that it comes up against. If that is just in the air, then ground combat with its toll on individual soldiers is a whole different beast. When PLAGF soldiers, many of them conscripts, are tested in battle, it is unclear if they will soldier on with the same grit as India’s all-volunteer Army. While the world can appreciate peace and a lack of fighting, as China looks to displace India as the dominant military power in South Asia, it will remain untested and doubt-ridden until it faces real combat.
At the tactical unit-level, the PLAGF has since 2017 accelerated service-induction of direct fire-support weapons like shoulder-carried LP D-50 flamethrowers and shoulder-launched ‘Hidden Blade’ thermobaric missiles, indicating that such weapons will be used in conjunction with armed VTOL–UAS platforms like the AV -500W and CR-500 ‘Golden Eagle’ that will provide indirect fire-support for assault operations along mountain ridgelines.
The PLARF’s increasing reliance on conventionally armed TBMs for use as counter-intervention or anti-access/area denial weapons against targets inside India like air bases and advance landing grounds (ALG) is indicative of the PLAAF’s reluctance to use manned offensive airpower platforms for either tactical or deep strikes beyond the LAC in the foreseeable future.
The raising of air-mobile ‘Modular Combined-Arms Battalions’ (starting with those of the WTC’s 149 Brigade based at at Liqiao, Ningxia) and the 308th Independent Artillery Brigade within the TMD since 2017, coupled with the on-going expansion of heli-base infrastructure at Lhasa-Gonggar, Ngari, Shigatse and Shiquanhe, are designed for conferring the PLAGF with Brigade-level rapid reaction capabilities in areas like Doklam and eastern Ladakh. To attain the required heli-borne air-assault capabilities, the PLAGF has initiated a large-scale programme for procuring in very large numbers a range of homegrown medium-lift and heavy-lift utility helicopters over the next 10 years. The new-generation variants of the Z-8 (the Z-8G and Z-8L) have a total takeoff weight of 13 tonnes, while the joint Sino-Russian project to develop and build a 40-tonne new-generation heavylift helicopter (AHL), which will be lighter than the 56-tonne Mi-26, is expected to be available for deliveries in 2032. Powerplant for the AHL is still under development in Russia. Previously, it had been stated that the AHL was to be powered by Ukrainian Motor Sich JSC/Ivchenko-Progress AI-136T turboshaft engines.
Changhe Aircraft Industry Group’s (CAIG) Z-8L ‘Gaoyuan’ (Plateau) heavylift helicopter, earlier designated as the Z-18, is a heavily modified version of the Harbin Z-8, CAIG’s derivative of the Aérospatiale SA.321 Super Frelon. The Z-8L flew for the first time in 2014. Powered by three domestic WZ-6C turboshaft engines, it has a maximum takeoff weight of 13.8 tonnes and can carry 30 troops, or five tonnes of cargo for up to 1,000km. The Z-8L’s design has replaced the Super Frelon’s distinctive boat-hull lower fuselage with a tail ramp and has added a small terrain-following radar in the radome. In addition, the much longer external sponsons are configured as fuel tanks, as well as mounting the aft undercarriage. The internal width of the load area has been increased from 1.8 metres to 2.4 metres. Some Z-8Ls are fitted with a SATCOM fairing on the tailboom, aft of the engine exhausts. The Z-8L has to date performed flight-tests reaching as high as 29,500 feet.
The twin-engined Z-20 medium-lift helicopter’s series-production, now underway at the Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (HAIG), will give the PLAGF helicopters that are China’s first to use indigenously developed fly-by-wire flight-control systems (FBW-FCS). The Z-20 also features a streamlined aerodynamic structure and new anti-icing technology. In November 2017 the Z-20 in PLAAF colours completed its high-altitude flight-tests at Xiahe airfield (flying up to 4,000 metres, or 13,200 feet) in Gansu province. The Z-20’s requirement dates back to the 1980s, when China was seeking a medium utility helicopter for operations in its mountainous western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. The PLAAF eventually imported 24 Sikorsky S-70C-2s powered by General Electric T700-701A engines. Since then, the S-70’s performance in such regions has been unmatched, even with the later acquisition by China of Mil Mi-17V5s from Russia. Development of the Z-20 began in 2006, and the maiden flight took place on December 23, 2013.
Although the Z-20 bears a close external resemblance to the S-70, the Z-20 incorporates novel features like the FBW-FCS, five main rotor blades, and a more angular tail–to-fuselage joint airframe, all of whoch contributes to more lift, greater cabin capacity and higher endurance. In addition, a new fairing installed aft of the engine exhausts and another on the tail spine, are housings for the BeiDou (Big Dipper) satellite navigation system’s receiver antennae. Powerplant for the Z-20 is the domestically-developed WZ-10 turboshaft engine, providing 2,145shp of power. The Z-20 will be a key air-mobility and projection platform for the PLAGF.
India’s Options
India’s military posture against China along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC) is to maintain full strategic defence with minor tactical offensive capabilities. Given the politico-operational compulsions, difficult terrain, and the PLAGF’s track record, it is clear that the IA was, until the previous decade, doing an onerous task. For instance, Sikkim has an area of approximately 8,000sqkm, measuring 113km north to south, and 64km from east to west with heights rising up to 28,000 feet. Militarily, the state is divided into north and east Sikkim. Due to a central massif, north Sikkim is further divided into the Muguthang Valley in the west, the Kerang Plateau in the east, and north-east Sikkim. The Lachung, Lachen and Muguthang Valleys in north Sikkim prevent any lateral movement. Of the 14 passes along the 206km-long Sikkim-Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) LAC, six are all-weather, implying that these are open throughout the year. Three each of these passes are in north and east Sikkim, these being Kongra La, Bomcho La, Sese La, Nathu La (at 14,438 feet in east Sikkim), Batang La and Doka La. Unlike the passes in north-east and east Sikkim, the passes on the watershed border in north Sikkim are fairly wide and motorable. Being windswept, they remain relatively free from snow and are open throughout the year. The watershed and the adjoining Tibetan Plateau are devoid of any cover. The terrain in north and north-east Sikkim is more difficult, rugged and formidable, with the altitude rising suddenly and steeply (one can travel from 5,000 feet to 14,000 feet in just about 60km) than east Sikkim, where surface communications are better developed due to its proximity to the northern West Bengal plains. India’s 435km-long border with Nepal includes a 125km border between Nepal and Sikkim, of which about 50km is most inhospitable.
Geography in terms of boundaries throws up myriad challenges, classified as cartographic anxieties. If not managed well, these magnify into strategic vulnerabilities. The Siliguri Corridor, a tenuous link with eight North-East states and gateway for more than 50 million north-easterners, is indeed one such vulnerability. This 200km stretch with width varying from 17km to 60km is aptly referred to as ‘Chicken’s Neck’ and measures approximately 12,203 sq km. The narrowest 4km strip towards western edge, Tetulia Corridor, is wedged between Nepal and Bangladesh. The eastern part of the Corridor is wider and borders Bhutan and Bangladesh. The Chumbi Valley tapering into the Doklam Plateau is barely 100km away. Mapping the corridor is a challenge as its limits are a matter of interpretation. The Corridor has major Indian Air Force (IAF) air bases: Baagdogra and Hashimara and an Army Aviation base at Shaugaon. A large number of IA and CAPF installations are located in this narrow stretch. In keeping with the ‘one border, one force’ policy, the responsibility of borders is divided between the Army and ITBP for China; SSB for Nepal and Bhutan, and Bangladesh with the BSF. Multiplicity of forces and agencies requires an effective and tailor-made coordination mechanism. Most of the border except for Bangladesh is unfenced and porous with treacherous riverine stretches. Tea, timber and tourism are the main drivers of economic activity, controlled from Siliguri. Notorious for criminal activities, Kaliachak in Malda is hub of counterfeit currency trafficking, narco-terrorism and IED-making. Uncontrolled migration from Bangladesh has complicated demographics and radical Muslim groups and madrassas have proliferated with the tacit support of successive West Bengal state governments. Adding to the complexity are non-indigenous Meitei and Bodo settlements, which provide shelter to cadres, in addition to ULFA and KLO utilising it for transit.  The simmering Gorkhaland problem coupled with Kamatapur insurgency have made this region a potential target for hybrid warfare. The obvious question is: has India allowed it to become an Achilles Heel in her geo-strategic calculus?
Terrestrial communications from mainland to the North-East are based on double-line broad-gauge rail-link, complemented by two National Highways along with vital hydrocarbon pipelines passing through this stretch. Risk mitigation dictates focused investment in strategic storage for critical commodities and alternative connectivities such as Sittwe-Kaladan and a transit corridor through Bangladesh has limited potential. The Siliguri Corridor with low hills, jungles and broken ground dotted with numerous rivers provides multiple formidable defence lines. While India certainly does not want a war, yet for such an eventuality, IA troops, including mechanised forces, are not only earmarked but have regularly rehearsed. In the Eastern theatre, the IA is likely to engage in three separate sub-theatre battles in respective Corps Zones, where primary defensive architecture with inbuilt reserves is already in place.
The Sikkim/Doklam area of operations comes under the IA’s XXXIII Trishakti Corps, based in Sukna near the city of Siliguri. It comprises the Gangtok-based 17 Mountain Division, Binnaguri-based 20 Mountain Division and the Kalimpong-based 27 ‘Striking Lion’ Mountain Division. 164 Mountain Brigade based in Kalimpong and belonging to 27 Mountain Division, which was earlier in Jammu since the year 2000, and in December 2007 relocated to northern West Bengal to bolster IA positions opposite the Doklam Plateau.
So why does the PLAGF continue to remain on Doklam, a scenic, 4,000-metre-high pasture less than 100 square kilometres in spread? China's attempts to upset the status quo in the Chumbi Valley can be understood by looking at a military map. The Valley, created by the Torsa River, flows as the Amo Chu through Bhutan. India dominates the heights on the narrow valley’s western flank, while Bhutan sits on the eastern flank. All of China’s recent attempts have been to widen its presence in this narrow valley and reduce its vulnerability there. The Doklam Plateau gives the PLAGF the advantage of outflanking the IA’s defences in Sikkim where India has a major terrain advantage. The implications are strategic. India will not only lose her major advantage of a strategic offensive/counter-offensive from Sikkim, but will also give the PLAGF a launchpad for an offensive through the Rangpo River valley towards Kalimpong without violating the neutrality of Bhutan.
And what is the PLAGF doing in Bhutanese territory over 150km northeast of Doklam? Presently, there are three incursion camps in western Bhutan almost 7km deep and not far from where the Royal Bhutan Army has its own camps. All of these camps came up over the past decade. In the past, PLAGF-BDR patrols merely came up to these Bhutanese posts and went back. Post-Doklam, they are there to stay. China claims approximately 495 sq km of Bhutanese territory in the central sector and 269 sq km of territory in western Bhutan, including Doklam. Each of the three PLAGF incursion camps in western Bhutan are meant to house a Platoon-sized formation of around 30 soldiers and include infrastructure and tents, permanent white buildings with green roofs and communications trenches, which allow soldiers to move between positions when under fire. The incursion camps in Chumbi and also the road at Doklam are part of the PLAGF’s larger plan to widen its presence in the narrow Chumbi Valley, which protrudes like an inverted thumb of territory between India and Bhutan. The IA believes these posts are to widen China’s eastern road that travels down towards the Chumbi Valley. The road is presently too close to Bhutanese territory. The IA has wartime contingency plans for a Mountain Division to take up defensive positions along western Bhutan in case of a thrust down the Chumbi Valley by China. But a wartime contingency clearly cannot become a peacetime exigency.
In the Indian context, there are only very few such places and each of these so-called gaps or funnels in northern Sikkim and eastern Ladakh can be converted into traps and killing grounds like Khemkaran in Punjab, thereby providing an ‘Asal Uttar’ or real answer to PLAGF’s forays as and when they are attempted. While India does have some challenges in Ladakh, her domination over the Kerang Plateau in Sikkim is real and effective. The Chumbi Valley is a 100km dagger-shaped north- south salient that lies between India (Sikkim) to the north-west, west and south-west, and Bhutan to the north-east, east and south. Some 100km south of the dagger point is Bangladesh and, in between, lie 70km of rugged mountainous terrain of India/Bhutan and the Siliguri Corridor, which has a number of rivers running in north-south direction. On the face of it, at the strategic level, it gives the PLAGF a launch pad to choke India’s vital lines of communications running through the Siliguri Corridor to the North East. But this will require a major offensive by up to six PLAGF Divisions as part of an all-out war, with holding forces to contain the north western, western and eastern flanks. Given the existing road communications, limited deployment space as the Chumbi Valley at Yatung (Yadong) is only 30km wide as the crow flies, vulnerability to the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) offensive airpower and IA counter-offensives from the flanks, this hypothetical threat is a non-starter. In fact, the Chumbi Valley is more vulnerable to an IA offensive or counter-offensive from the north-west and west from Sikkim and ‘by your leave’ complementary offensive via Bhutan from the east. In fact, advancing to the Siliguri Corridor would require PLAGF troops to break through strong Indian defences in Sikkim and advance southwards more than 100km through difficult jungle terrain—a tough military task. The beleaguered PLA units that do make it to Siliguri would have to beat back inevitable Indian counter attacks. Even assuming that China obtained control over the Siliguri Corridor, India could simply bypass the Corridor, moving through Nepal or Bangladesh. If India’s sense of vulnerability over Siliguri is thus overblown, Beijing’s wish to extend the Chumbi Valley southwards is incomprehensible. Of all China’s border vulnerabilities, the Chumbi Valley is perhaps the greatest. It is a narrow salient overlooked by Indian defences, which can cut off the Valley from Tibet by wheeling east from North Sikkim via the Sora Funnel, capturing it at leisure. Strategists regard the capture of the Chumbi Valley as an obvious wartime target for the IA. By extending the Chumbi Valley southwards, therefore, China would only be expanding a key vulnerability. In addition, the flat and wide terrain of the Plateau facing northern Sikkim is ideal for armoured warfare, one reason why the IA had pre-positioned two Regiments of T-72CIAs and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles (ICV) there since 2009.
Again this can only happen in a major war, the probability of which is very low. Nations armed with nuclear weapons do not generally risk an all-out conventional war, though the probability of border skirmishes or a limited war cannot be ruled out.
OP FALCON In Wangdung, Arunachal Pradesh 1986-1987

86 comments:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Are India’s ICBMs & Nuclear Submarines an Expensive Mistake:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4FwuYplRL8

https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/india-china-postures/China%20India%20Postures.pdf

PLA Joint Exercises in Tibet: Implications for India:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqAEflair3k

How China Infiltrated Into UN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltBZoN6pnUY&t=22s

Wuhan P-4 Lab’s lapses: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk13AhgqplM&t=14s

Nine Commentaries on the Communist Party:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3caj8T3BBmU

Coronavirus Pandemic's Wall Street Connection:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuAk6eaZBFM

DAshu said...

The mere anxiety to find out whether or not the IA was monitoring the infantry exercise triggered this brawl? very weird Sir.
Could be some kind of synchronization with PA's plan for this 11 may plan, though I have doubt on this 11 May theory.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: Most unlikely, because had it been a pre-mediated plan, then the PLAGF-BDR would have resorted to an extended standoff like it had done in April 2013 in the Depsang Plains of Ladakh. But since the PLAGF-BDR decided to disengage quickly, this is just a case of a jittery PLAGF getting over-anxious.

shukant chatrath said...

Compared to the PLAGF, what does the Indian army bring to the table????

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

1. anxious to find out if IA monitoring? but IA already has spy satellite, RAWs ARC, MIU and may be even HUMINT from Tibetans for NLOS tracking of acts in Tibet and the same can said about China doing same thing with regards to India?? so why this uncalled for aggression?

2. just heard someone (a tibetan) say that plans were ready to rescue the Panchen Lama from Tibet (approved & appointed by HH Dalai Lama) in mid 1995-96 with the Tibetan element of SFF possibly conducting their last ever op inside china occupied Tibet, this had tacit approval from GoI and in the last moment it was called off (rest as we known that new HH Panchen Lama went missing and China appointed a puppet instead) bcoz CIA didnt want to help provide cover (like it did during HH Dalai Lama escape) as CIA didnt want US investment to be affected, how true is this??

also there were spate of suicide by former tibetan elements of SFF in late 1990s, i hope it was not linked to this disappointment

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Ashish Gautam said...

Thanks for previous reply sir.
Nahi hua kuch 11th ko as anticipated... n I had a feeling that this was just a over hype, though someone from inside told me info was available much earlier around 3/5 onwards. I asked questions of why couldn't we make a good capf force after 30 years of this ci/ct issue, none answered from retired guys. Honestly I feel that ITBP is also very very under equipped, so if Chinese decides to help Pakistan (which is unlikely) we won't be able to keep chicken's neck safe, resulting in loosing of whole that area. Baki ap Better bata sakte.
Sir when govt job related exams may start taking place?? I am waiting for RBI grade B. Or should I enter some pvt IT firm??

rad said...


hi praswun
do the above deploymet cause a threat and can they be contained . All analysis points out to a massive missiles strike on indian positions rather than a regular battle .
during the air exercise between the pla and thai airforce , it seems the gripens scored 5- 0 against the chinese su27 due to netcentric airbattle . ? is that true?.


asd said...

Dear Prasun,

1. Why did labor party in UK took a sudden U turn on its Kashmir stance?

2. Further to your response to my earlier query regarding abrogation of Article 370 and its impact on terrorism, I can recall that before abrogation too many times you had mentioned terrorism is confined to south Kashmir only. So what's the advantage then although I am not at all aware of it? Please enlighten me.

3. Is OSINT revelation regarding casualties in balakote air strike is reliable? It predicted 263 phone signals were active.

Anonymous said...

https://www.defencenews.in/article/Over-100-mosques-threaten-to-boycott-Labour-over-Kashmir-830559

Indian Muslim federation UK is also supporting this letter..
What do you think does a Labour Party give in to this threat
Ron

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

btw in the last thread in answer to my 4th query where you said 'where there is will there is way' Michael Pillsbury has actually answered it correctly that

1. it may never be possible as it was usa itself that helped China become what it is today in last 40 yrs at the expense of India making every effort to ignore India

2. It was USA hat made all effort to send its factories to China and now bringing them back is not very easy

3. Trump may not get relected in nov 2020

The reason that India isnt joining the USA bandwagon to punish China, i feel the prime reason being USA ditching India after asking for help in Tibetan insurrection for sake of dollars. and India is wary of that happening again.

4. however I liked his idea that India should start radio programs in Mandarin sending news through high powered transmitters into China telling the Chinese people who are only fed filtered info about truth. though i feel programs in Tibetan language are far more important

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Would our establishment be naive enough to agree with the belfercenter report? They only recommend a minimal increase in vulnerable Agni III's and no Agni V/SLBMs. Such a deterrent as they suggest would have zero credibility against China 5-10 years hence.

Satyaki

Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
1.agni 2&3 can hit all major cities of china from Assam. india invest more in slbm?
2.is it true that weather in TAR reduce paload capacity of chinese fighter jets?
Regards

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SHUKANT CHATRATH: Have explained it all above by new uploads.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) So going by your reasoning, if India has overhead recce satellites of all types, then why use manned/unmanned surveillance platforms or LORROS? Thought you would have wisened up by now. 2) Needless conspiracy theories peddled as FAKE NEWS.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Would you have given a guarantee if nothing had happened before 12am last night? Nobody can & that’s why it always pays to prepare for worst-case scenarios. Such suicide bombing attempts are planned & executed over a period of at least 6 months. Fortunately, word about it began to spread among the families of some ‘missing’ Kashmiri youngsters in late January & only on May 3 did the ‘desi patrakaars’ receive a briefing from the Union MHA. And the reason why CAPFs aren’t functioning optimally is because of this:

https://theprint.in/opinion/igp-kashmir-crpf-undue-credit-surrender-medals-bsf-adg/418563/

To RAD: Have uploaded additional data & slides above to explain why the PLAGF deployments won’t pose any credible threat to India for at least another decade. At least not until the PLAGF equips itself with sizeable numbers of helicopters of all types. The RTAF Gripens were equipped with new-generation tactical data-links while the PLAAF’s Su-27SKs were not.

To ASD: 1) How can UK citizens force any political party of the UK to take a stand on an issue that has no bearing on the UK’s national interests? The Anglo-Saxon Caucasian will eventually interpret this as nothing else but ‘Islamophobia playing the victimhood card’, rest assured. 2) Had already explained it back then on August 6 last year. 3) Those cellphones can belong to anybody residing in that particular area & not necessarily inside the Jaba Top camp.

To SATYAKI: Why limit the Indian BMs’ deployment area to only Assam? Only an idiot will concur with such suggestions. But ultimately, the desired deployment pattern will be that the majority of the strategic deterrent will be sea-based, i.e. SSBNs armed with SLBMs & SLCMs, while only about 30% of the warheads will be carried by land-based ICBMs & air-launched cruise-missiles.

To MOHAN: 1) The best bang for the buck is always provided by sea-based deterrent tools since they are the most survivable, unlike land-based BMs. 2) Not weather, but the high altitudes of the airports in TAR that house combat aircraft. Facing India, presently there are NO dedicated air bases of the PLAAF. Most of the dedicated bases are heli-bases, as I have shown & explained above. Nor has the PLARF constructed any India-specific storage/launch sites for conventionally armed BMs in either TAR or in neighbouring Sichuan & Yunnan provinces.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Iran seems to be having problems with target identification/acquisition. First the downing of a civilian airliner & now firing ASMs at its own vessels:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryFKwk68RGc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgHPYgtpopQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9_s0qK-bXo

Anonymous said...

https://twitter.com/sark_10/status/1259559679614545920?s=20

During a Seminar between India & Pakistan Mr. Javed Jabbar is a Pakistani writer. He gave this statement. Never In my entire life, I never heard or read that is even remotely close to this statement, that holds this much logical/ historical fact. He basically demolished every narrative, that RSS holds to indoctrinate there members and Indians in general.

Seems like he’s distorting the fact that during the rule of King Nanda & Ashoka entire sub-continent almost 90% of landmass was covered
Your comments

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/5G-networks/China-closes-in-on-70-of-world-s-5G-subscribers

Ron

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

1. How is it possible that Bangladeshi Muslims are able to come inside Bengal despite the presence of BSF?

2. Why are Bodos and Meiteis living in North Bengal? Both these two groups are well known for creating terrorist groups.

3. Who is fueling the Kamatapur insurgency? I understand that successive governments at the Center encouraged both Gorkha and Kamtapur insurgency.

I look forward to your well reasoned answers. Thank You.

AD said...

Dada,

Few queries, list is pretty long though -

1. Which indigenous fighter aircraft program should be stopped - LCA 1A, MWF, ORCA, TEDBF, AMCA?

2. What is name of next generation destroyer program of IN - Project 16 or Project 18?

3. What is the specification of next generation destroyer of IN?

4. Will delivery of Rafale, Chinook, Apache, M777 be delayed?

5. What about delivery of remaining K-9 Vajra?

6. Which components of K-9 Vajra has been indigenously designed, if any at all?

7, Has Swathi WLR been contracted for sale to Armenia?

8. How does Swathi fare if pitted against global peers?

9. What is the timeframe for upgrading Swathi to AESA from existing PESA?

10. Is Swathi indigenously 100% designed and developed?

Rd said...

The policy of minimum deterrence has capped our missile ranges. This policy and though process has capped our technological advancements,achievements and experimentation.what is your viewpoint

Ankit Kumar said...

Modiji ne bol diya Local. Jo deals ho gayi, wo to thik. Lekin aur kya ab? No more Rafales?

DAshu said...

Now an easy target - maternity hospital

author said...

Will a fleet of 22 apaches, 16 chinooks , 12 cj-130 would be enough. Are we planning to build attack helicopter in lines or more powerful then apache and are we procuring more chinooks and cj130 j

Kaustav said...

Ron,
(With apologies to Prasunda)
In case u r Pakistani, 😆Think!! Partition is what exactly Hindus in India wanted & over time it became more desirable. India got a buffer. High percentage of Muslims in an unpartioned India would have resulted in natural Muslim domination by now of such an India & turned it into a Islamic State. Take undivided Bengal (Calcutta Presidency) for instance. Shyamaprasad Mukherjee & other Bengali Bhadralok (incl Congress & Commies had understood that an undivided Bengal meant no space for upper caste Hindus. Partition of Bengal ensured that Hindu Bengalis were able to get political space & domination in a Hindu Majority West Bengal. Undivided Bengal was/is Muslim. U know game, but don't understand. Upper caste Hindu Bengalis got homeland & political power, which was not otherwise possible w/o partition😉 BTW, for the inevitable query on Kashmir. Again the same - Strategic need & unifying factor. Infact Akhand Bharat of RSS is just an EU style common market in South Asia, which solves need of overland access to CARs/Russia for North-South corridor but India needs to ensure its security & the water resources of Kashmir. ThusIndia needs all of the claimed territories.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RON: What more can one expect from someone whose sense of recorded history began only 1,400 years ago? This is how revisionists distort historical factoids.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: 1) They can’t. Nopt anymore. Only available routes now are the rivulets flowing through Assam. 2) They also run cross-border smuggling syndicates along the India-Bhutan & India-Myanmar borders. 3) Yes & no, depending on which state govt is in power in WB. Such insurgent groups always without fail have linkages with other insurgent groups in that region.

WB Exodus Explained: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLCSAOo_ns

Did Indira Gandhi Meet Gumnaami Baba: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYnUcnjyBas

To AD: 1) Elementary: the one which is the toughest to achieve, i.e. the AMCA & TEDBF. OCRA does not exists & is the creation of internet fanboys. 2) No designations exist as yet. Project 16 was the Godavari-class FFG (already decommissioned). 4) No. 5) No delays. 6) None. 7) Yes. 8) Swathi WLR is passive phased-array whereas new-generation WLRs use active phased-array antennae. 9) No such plans exist. 10) Yes.

To RD: Not quite. When India started out, the policy adopted was that of acquiring ‘minimum credible deterrence’. After 2002 when sanctions were lifted, the policy of acquiring ‘credible minimum deterrence’ was adopted.

To ANKIT KUMAR: More Rafales will follow, provided the much-expected radical economic reforms are now enacted in the post-lockdown era.

To DASHU: Have updated the narrative above with new data in an attempt to join the dots.

To AUTHOR: Of course not. As I will explain in another thread on the imperatives for waging high-altitude plateau warfare, for waging such warfare, one will firstly have to overfly mountains & reach the plateaux in TAR both on the eastern & western fronts. Secondly, for any Corps-sized offensive expeditionary force to achieve success, it will have to be launched along 2 separate vectors, i.e. from Depsang Plain in Ladakh & from Uttarkhand towards Ngari/Kailash mansarovar area, until they converge at a point. And this point of convergence must first be secured as a safe bridgehead by an air-mobile brigade. So, what one needs to achieve success are: an air-mobile brigade, a mechanised division, & a light infantry division. And all thesde should have integral combat engineering, EW support, air-defence artillery cover & a seamless battlefield logistics process. Consequently, by doing the math, we can safely conclude that what is reqd for a successful ground offensive on high-altitude plateaux are heavylift helicopters, heavilift helicopters & medium-lift helicopters in large numbers; plus STOL transport aircraft like C-130J-30s. Attack helicopters won’t be of much use & this also explains why the PLAGF has not yet deployed its Z-10s & Z-19s in TAR. Like China, China too has conducted deep studies into the offensive ground campaigns of Gen Zorawar Singh & has correctly assessed that the only worthwhile offensive by the IA can be staged only from eastern Ladakh & northeast Uttarkhand. And that’s also the reason why last December the IAF stated that more ALGs will be coming up in Uttarkhand to add to the one at Dharasu. And that’s also why the IA’s 14 RAPIDS has since been converted into a mountain division & has been relocated to Himachal Pradesh.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Latest from ISPR-Sponsored Propagandists of Pakistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-JxeWOxZDk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IGyyMswl4Y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTHE7JPkS0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyZecxA7WK0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-AKT28-Uvg

PA COAS Meets China Ambassador: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHZcbaxBRYo

Pak MoD Wants Budget Increase: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXxcHHXXkAI5TL3?format=jpg&name=medium

Untold Stories of Para SF: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8Z2AUtrMWU

Silencing of Dissent in Pakistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTVHAJ_d_jc

WTO After COVID-19: The View From China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uC7-4Y-5N0w

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33401/this-is-what-ground-forces-look-like-to-an-electronic-warfare-system-and-why-its-a-big-deal?xid=twittershare

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/China_Space_and_Counterspace_Activities.pdf

DAshu said...

And you hardly ever failed to join the dots, Sir.
Let's see what's in store for us.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

After connecting the dots, I'm finding that China is pushing Pakistan to declare PoK as its sovereign state. And this will put India in jittery; hence a war between India and Pakistan is highly likely. I mean India is going to get back PoK and Gilgit and Baltistan. Although I am stupid too 😂. Please share your views.

mg6357 said...

Hi Prasunji,

1. How many Chetak & Cheetah are in the service of IAF ?

2. How many Chetak & Cheetah are in the service of IA ?

3. How many Chetak are in the service of IN ?

With Recent speech of Modi about "Atma Nirbhar Bharat", do you think we are repeating 1970s era mistake of Nationalization of entities ?

-MG6357

AD said...

Dada,

Thank you very much for your response. Further to your reply I have some doubts. Can you please shed some lights?


1. You did not comment on specification of next generation destroyer of IN. Does that mean no such specification exist as on today? Or at the moment it is confidential to share in public domain?

2. You replied that no such plan exist as of now to upgrade Swathi WLR from PESA avatar to AESA but like you suggested Swathi WLR uses Passive Phased Array Antennae vis a vis Active Phased Array Antennae of new generation WLR, Swathi WLR should be upgraded to Active Phased Array Radar. Is not it? Can you elaborate please?

3. I read in Saurav Jha's portal (Delhi Defence Review) DRDO is developing Advanced Towed Array Sonar (ATAS) which will be 100% indigenously designed and developed SONAR and will replace ATLAS ELEKTRONIK provided Towed Array Sonar in future. What is the status of this initiative?

4. What is status of HSTDV?

5. Will DRDO develop any hypersonic missile based on technology of HSTDV?

6.I noticed one YouTube video claiming future DRDO MBT project as GNMBT. Is it true or dream of arm-chair generals? If true, can you share some more info please?

7. What is current status of AGNI -6?

8. What about MIRV of development?

9. And that of MARV development?

10. Is Surya Missile a reality or brainchild of "Desi Patrakars"?

11. I read an article claiming following footstep of Brahmos India is foraying into a Joint Venture with Russia to design and develop LRAAM prolly dubbed as Novator KS-172/K100. Is it true? If not, is Indian planning to acquire any LRAAM?

12. What is status of DRDO High Power Radar (HPR)? I watched an YouTube video claiming DRDO is working on HPR.

Thank you very again for developing and enriching our common sense.

Ajay Singh said...

China - Pakistan's move to change the constitutional status of Gilgit and Baltistan in order to lease parts of PoK to China ought to be strongly contested and defeated by India. It is time for India to threaten China with denial of access to India's markets unless they back off from PoK. And on the military front it is time for India to build capabilities to retake PoK via an air assault, air mobile corps-level offensive. That will entail accretion of much larger numbers of C-17 type aircraft and medium / heavy lift helicopters - perhaps a focus area for license manufacture of these types in India. China is building precisely such capabilities - the PLAGF may have weaknesses in Tibet today, but they will address them. Time for India to act before the Pak-China nexus shuts us out of PoK permanently.

Anonymous said...

Within this year I’m sure PA will give some real estate in PoK to China for 99 year lease but what India can do about it other than publishing weather forecasts which don’t stop China from acquiring land
Can it able to take any concrete steps to deny land to China

Ron

Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
All measures are fine but one measures will take us down example:
Global tenders to be disallowed in Government procurement up to Rs 200 crores. This will make self-reliant India, will also then be able to serve 'Make in India': Finance Minister
This will be good for other sections except science and technology and defence. How will foreign jey like rafale or airbus for airindia, medical equipment , hi te equipment can be purchased? There is no hi tec manufacturing happening without foreign companies. And all those hi tec precision equipment are use in western countries.

just_curious said...

Prasun,
1- what is & what should be India's stance on having taiwan as a member of WHO more so when it is about to lead it
2- recent noises emanating from nepal .. is there a china angle to it.. This has happened in the recent past as well... what is the reason of continued instability of the nepalese polity & their suspicion of India? not much noise came out of them when the communist mouthpiece tweeted that mt everest is a part of china
3- are there any discussions between India & Russia on how to reign in an aggressive china?
4- recent announcements by MoD on opting for more indigenous weapons with a possibility of stalling the NASMAS @ deal. How feasible is it ?
5- HAL being considered for NUH.. U- turn again by MoD.. good deal? bad deal? this is becoming a trend ...why is the MoD fumbling to implement its own ideas set forth in the prev tenure and more so when they got elected on the premise to help the private industry get a fair chance in defence manufacturing or was the whole strategic partner idea flawed. How do we fix this. I also found it silly that on the premise of saving indian industry only indigenous food will be served to CAPF & other forces .. whatever that means? where does for eg-kellogs manufactured in india fit in this? I'm sure there are better things for the MoD to attend to than this
6- No news about Nirbhay for the longest time .. is it still being given any priority? same with HTT40, LCH & LUH ... HAL has too much on its plate already even when not considering thetejas fly (mk1a, trainers, MWF)
7- You mentioned that IJT wud not be considered.. why does HAL keep wasting precious resources on reviving it? same with saras- NAL
8- any quick gains of HCQ diplomacy so far? should India send PPE's/ medic contingents(like done for maldivis/gulf etc for short duration) to both Russia & USA as a diplomatic move

AMIT BISWAS said...

https://twitter.com/I30mki/status/1260632573048320000?s=20

Any chances of this landing upon indian runways??

Btw what gives u so confidence about IA taking on PLA given the fact indian services never shy away from goof up during ops...I remember u suggested to read USI book and 1989 issue..but still india gets so pissed off with china that it can't even take a stand about Taiwan in WHO..

AMIT BISWAS said...

ATLAS to abhi abhi aya hai...ye khyali pulao saurav Jha bahut acha deta hai

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

As always was reading your latest blog topic with interest and came across this sentence:

"India’s military posture against China along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC) is to maintain full strategic defence with minor tactical offensive capabilities."

This is a cause of major concern. Begs the question despite decades of import of military H/W worth Billions of dollars why is it that nearly 6 decades after the 1962 conflict India still does not have MAJOR Offensive capabilities against China.

Regards,
VIKRAM

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: Another front that China is trying to open, this time inside Bhutan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW0KBLORTvY

And now, for some quick entertainment, watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-G-W0Xu-FM

To ASD: Not its sovereign state (as that will automatically nullify UNSC Resolution 47 & by consequence Pakistan will no longer be able to call for UN intervention), but as a provisional state with nominal self-governing powers that will be sold & labelled as an temporary arrangement. Consequently, China too will claim that the long-term lease is also a temporary arrangement that does not violate any UNSC resolution. As for GB, do watch these:

How Can India Take Gilgit-Baltistan Back from Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SCblgRnxf4

Political Status & Real Story of Gilgit-Baltistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF9Wn_gOuU8

More Protests in GB: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DAe34-rhVQ

To MG6357: 1) Less than 120 of each type. 2) Less than 100 of each type. 3) Less than 50.

"Atma Nirbhar Bharat" in which sector? In the consumer electronics sector, where all kinds of goods worth US$100 billion are imported annually? Or for all kinds of goodies that get sold during festive seasons? Even idols of various Gods nowadays are Made-in-China. Hence, mere sloganeering won’t work. Several such slogans have been heard since independence. Now, if the ‘netas’ still do not go into the finer details & unveil a detailed roadmap that is time-bound, then this will appear to be just more sloganeering.

To AD: 1) No firm specifications exist. Only broad conceptual design exists. 2) It can be upgraded, but it isn’t as of now. 3) LoLz! Mere DRAMEBAAZI & GASEOUS TALK & FAKE NEWS. FYI, all the latest sonars from DRDO are low-frequency systems, whereas the latest available from abroad are ULTRA-Low-Frequency sonars, like the ACTAS active/passive towed-array sonar from ATLAS Elektronik of Germany. That’s why the Mihir low-frequency dunking sonar was rejected by the IN. From this, we can conclude that the NPOL is one full technological generation behind the rest of the world. That’s why it is VERY EASY to chant slogans about "Atma Nirbhar Bharat", but in reality requires a herculean effort to achieve, especially from those ruling circles who cannot even organise an efficient transportation logistics system for ferrying the country’s 3.3-crore migrant workforce. 4) Still in the conceptual development phase. 5) Why should it develop when Russia has already decided to part with a version of the ZIRCON hypersonic multi-role missile (renamed in India as BrahMos-2) for meeting India’s reqmts? 6) How can such a project even exist when the IA has not yet released even its preliminary SQRs, leave alone the definitive GSQR? 7) No such missile exists by that name. 8 & 9) It is still under development. 10) It is a figment of imagination. 11) Again, it is FAKE NEWS. 12) Don’t believe such fantasy videos. Instead, always go to the source, like these:

https://www.drdo.gov.in/sites/default/files/inline-files/high-power-radar.pdf

https://drdo.gov.in/transfer-technologies

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RON: Of course, she can. Several options exists, including India leveraging her huge consumer market for China-made goods & services. Why else do you think China did not formally announce the activation of the long-term lease arrangement 2 days ago? What were the reasons & were these the reasons that were explained by the Chinese Ambassador when he went to the GHQ to meet the PA’s COAS?

To MOHAN: That does not mean that international OEMs will not be able to team up with their Indian industrial partners for participating in the bidding process. And are you of the view that a follow-on tranche of 36 Rafales, if contracted for, will cost less than Rs.200 crore?

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) On humanitarian grounds, India should support Taiwan’s re-entry into the WHO. 2) Not just in Nepal, but also in Bhutan. China is trying its level-best to heat up matters in India’s immediate periphery. But it won’t work, rest assured. 3) Yes, because Russia is also Vietnam’s security guarantor & will never let Hanoi down. And India knows this too. 4) All these ‘indigenous’ weapons all have minimum 40% foreign material content that always constitute the most critical components. Therefore, donlt fall for all such misleading statements & instead always try to get into the finer details. 5) Not necessarily, because not all NUHs are reqd to be shipborne & hence up to 40 navalised Dhruv ALHs can be procured by the IN for operating out of shore-based naval air stations. Same goes for the ICGS reqmts as well. 6) News about them will start emanating only by this October, not before that. 7) HAL probably reckons that it can export such an IJT. 8) Neither the US nor Russia require such assistance as their public health systems are 100 times better than those of India. But India’s assistance to almost all countries within the IOR, especially small island-states like Comoros, Seychelles, Maldives & Mauritius, will pay rich dividends in the time to come. Interestingly, both Comoros & Maldives are Muslim-majority countries & so India rendering urgent assistance to them easily negates the Pakistan-propagated perception of India & Indians being anti-Islamic.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: It had already landed in Bengaluru way back in 2011. What I had stated was that the IA today along with the IAF can easily fend off a PLAGF/PLAAF limited tactical offensive, but the IA/IAF combine has severe capacity constraints to go on the offensive anywhere along the LAC. The PLAGF/PLAAF combine too has capacity constraints & until 2008, was even far inferior to the IA/IAF combine. But over the next 10 years, if the PLAGF succeeds in service-inducting homegrown heavylift & medium-lift helicopters in large numbers, then the balance of military power will tilt heavily in China’s favour.

To VIKRAM GUHA: As I have explained above, India possessed such appreciable offensive capabilities till 2008, but thereafter the downward slide began when the IAF’s squadron strength began going down while at the same time not enough investments were made in rotary-wined aviation, like going very slow on developing the LCH & LUH & not acquiring the reqd quantum of CH-47F Chinook heavylift helicopters, plus avoidable delays in procuring M-777 UFHs & developing homegrown solutions like Kalyani Group’s 4 x 4 155mm/39-cal MGS. Then there were other mistakes, like insisting on procuring brand-new airframes for the aerial refuelling tankers & the CABS-developed & IAI-supplied AEW & C systems. Instead, the IAF should have bought over Air India's fleet of A310-300 airliners & converted them into MRTTs & AEW & CS platforms. In other words, one can cite several such examples where common-sensical & cost-effective solutions could have been sought, which would have released funds reqd for other critical procurement projects. After all, if the IN can procure refurbished/second-hand vessels like the Admiral Gorshkov (INS Vikramaditya) & USS Trention (INS Jalashwa), then what prevented the IAF from pursuing a similar path? No easy answers will be forthcoming, kindly rest assured.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Why is it taking DRDO so long to develop MIRVs ? They seems to have started since 2010 and have not yet tested any such system. Incompetence ?

Satyaki

just_curious said...

Prasun,

if the following are true then the current govt needs to do a lot more to counter the propaganda..
http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2020/05/how-india-and-israel-use-pandemic-to.html... high time that we send a sterm messgae to the *&$# turks
2- labour party need a kick in its b#$%@.. have learnt nothing fro the disastrous defeat

while neither may have an impact on how we function it nevertheless breeds negativity towards India & its citizens which may have an effect in the future

3- what is this all about??? http://idrw.org/army-bringing-game-changing-proposal-to-allow-
3-yr-tenure-for-civilians/#more-227352 having civilians on frontline??? recipe for disaster .. they may put themselves & the professional soldiers @ risk. also there is a big question of their integrity what stops them from squeaking out in lure of making some quick bucks (even after they have completed their tenure)..however insignificant that info may be .. you never know when the enemy may strike gold or that the sum of the whole would may make sense when a lot of them spill beans
4 on NUH & NMRH-- you mention that they are not a single rotorcraft type that will be reqd (NMRH- a mix of 10T & 12T crafts), NUH(shore based & shipbased, assume they can be of diff MTOW's) if this is true how can any foreign partnership be a sensible one for say 50 odd crafts of a particular type for the private industry? was it an error to float the idea of 111 NUH & 123 NMRH that too under the strategic partner programme .. first the announcement of SEF then FICV now these .. it makes me think that parrikar's ideas were pretty flawed which also reflects on the current govt.. in that they do not seem to display basic common sense & understanding of what is needed even basic stock taking seems to be too difficult a task .. if this twist of NUH & NMRH req gets split into diff types then the private setor will lose interest. It also will make the foreign partners wary making it diffcult to have partners in the future

rad said...


hi prasun
when you say that chinese will use heavy heli to transport troops to battlelines.wont they be very suseptible to shorads and shoulder fired sam that can be placed at vantage point. ?
on e hit and the heli goes down with 25 men . we have seen it in afghanistan where the seal team got hit .?
what happened to all the A310 ? have they bene sold off. ?
will the ALH qualify for teh navy if they demsonstrate tail and rotor folding cabability? HAL seems to have made it . Or will the ALH be unsuitab;e due to payload range restriction?
is the chinese army a conscript army , i am surprised as there a big population .
Is the S4 much larger than the arihant or moderatley larger ?


/

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

If India captures PoK and Gilgit and Baltistan in next few years, then what will happen to all the infrastructures that China has developed? Certainly, it's Pakistan who has taken loan will be liable to pay that it has lost. But what would India do with these items like dams, roads etc.?

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,

With Varunastra and Sheyna Torpedos operational and the possibility of Varunastra torpedo being used on Submarines do you think we will be not dependent on Torpedos imports in the Future.

Thanks & Regards

Hardik Thanki

SK said...

Hi Prasun,

Call the below a wish-list and maybe some of it is wishful thinking but wanted to see how much of it is practically possible. This is with regards to the P-8i Poseidon platform with IN. I believe the IN should aim to get the full capability of the platform.

1) As originally suggested by you. Considering the current COVID19 situation and Boeing fiasco with B737 Max. IN should order at least 24 additional aircraft's with enhancements. Pricing would be of-course the main reason.

Enhancements would be -

2) Out of 24 order 12 aircraft should be equipped with AN/APS-154 Advanced Airborne Sensor underpod. With the SAR in under-slung pod it can doubleback as maritime & overland surveillance platform with JSTAR like performance. (Provided US can be convinced to sell them to India)

3) You have once mentioned that even though IN has a potent Brahmos it cannot be utilized for its entire range as IN lacks assets to provide mid-course guidance cues to the missile. Therefore greatly enhance the missile effectiveness. Can this pod be used to provide mid-course guidance cues to Brahmos, as the current Brhamos produced carry Indian seekers.

4) To integrate the next generation weapons such as AGM-158C LRASM, the current Harpoon missile despite of all the upgrades it received overtime is a vintage from the 70's. AGM-158C brings very deadly capability to the P-8 Platforms. Also to integrate other new weapons like air-launched naval mines, precision-guided bombs etc. The US Navy has already asked for such weapons, IN can ask for relevant one's based on its interest.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32071/navy-to-greatly-expand-p-8-poseidons-mission-with-new-missiles-mines-bombs-and-decoys

5) Equip all the new and retrofit existing P-8i's with mid-air refueling boom receptacle. The IAF A330 MRTT when ordered can be acquired with both boom & drogue. IAF can also use the boom for C-17 & C-130's midair refueling. That is, if they ever take expeditionary ops.

6) Boeing to integrate Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS) Mission capabilities to the aircraft to work in tandem with UAS platforms such as MQ-4C Triton or MQ-9B RPA. Ofcourse IN needs to acquire few of these UAS platforms as well.

With a fleet of 36 aircraft spread out in various bases across the coast can give IN total coverage of Indian Ocean.

Pratap said...

Sir, do you see any role of Apaches in a war against China or Pakistan? I think it was a wasteful purchase. They can be brought down by enemy air defence including SHORADS. We should start using them against jihadis inside J&K.

Varun said...

Prasun da, after reading I was reminded of US offer to India to join it's Future Vertical Lift programme. India should grab that offer without wasting any time and order atleast 40 more Chinooks and a couple of more Mi-17 V5s for now.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Does IAF have any plan to overcome such limitations by acquiring more heavy lift helicopters? Won't Mi17v5 helicopters help us in large numbers?

Anik said...

To many flights by IAF ISR aircrafts along our western and northern border. Global 5000 and Boeing 707 operated by ARC were in air today. Also one of our Il78M Mid air refueler was spotted in Sikkim indicating towards the possibility of long range combat air patrol being undertaken by IAF. Is something very serious going on at china & pakistani border?

https://theprint.in/defence/indias-oldest-flying-aircraft-in-spotlight-after-radar-website-shows-it-going-to-pakistan/421757/?amp&__twitter_impression=true


https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1260844055220518913?s=20

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1260930161463054336?s=20

Defense and Aerospace said...

Hello Prasun,

1. Last year you had mentioned that DRDO has already developed an AIP after receiving help from Naval Group. Today, Financial express carried an article that said Navy is still scouting for an AIP. Is this true?

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/air-independent-propulsion-for-kalvari-class-submarines-urgent-need-for-the-stealth-technology/1957766/

2. After the 27th Feb, 2019 attack carried out by Pakistan AF, is it true that Indian AF purchased a few hundred BVR missiles from Russia? Thank You Sir

Kapil said...

Sir, what is the status of HAL IMRH? HAL made a joke of itself by presenting a mock up of a chopper based on vintage Soviet design from the 1980s. That design should be thrown away in garbage bin. And HAL should work with some American or European firm for a dual ducted fans and co-axial rotor design. This should also be applied on LUH. Why can't the armed forces tell that to these incompetent idiots? They want to develop a helicopter bases on a 50 years old design. I hope armed forces reject that the altogether. Ideally we should accept US offer to become a part of its Future Vertical Lift programme.

Satya said...

Dada, will these new developments force India to go to war and retrieve back POK? My own hunch was that India would take some action around 2024-25 after the arrival of Barak 8, S-400 and Rafales. Now it all depends on govt's instinct and giving IAF and IA a go ahead. Whatever needs to be done must be done in the next 3-4 years or POK will be lost forever.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: It is not just about MIRVs, but the entire ICBM itself, which requires weight reduction & once achieved, it will be able to accommodate a heavier payload like MiRVs & decoy MIRVs. Flight-testing an ICBM prototype under controlled conditions is one thing, but transforming it into a robust & easily deployable missile in semi-knocked-down condition is a completely different ballgame.

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Such propaganda can easily be defeated by pointing out that Pakistan has been demographically changing the population ratios throughout PoK since the 1950s. 2) Rest assured that the Labour Party will implement a stratagem under which the pro-Pakistan Muslims of the UK will be outnumbered by Muslims hailing from PoK who are now receiving almost daily updates on the ongoing economic plunder of PoK by the China-Pakistan combine. 3) Those reforms will be confined to the rear-area combat-support units & not to frontline direct combat formations. 4) The NUH can be standardised along a single model, i.e. Dhruv ALH if that helicopter’s main rotor-head can be re-engineered to accommodate the folding main rotor-blades. HAL is perfectly capable of doing it with minimal help from a foreign consultant. The NMRHs will have to be imported because for as long as HAL remains a DPSU, it simply won’t be capable of developing the NMRH within the timeframes specified by the end-users. And as for the 114-unit SEF reqmt, it has now become obvious that the IAF will have to order more than 83 Tejas Mk.1As to fill the void & if the Tejas Mk.1A can be optimally weaponised with self-protection avionics suites (which can also be extended to the 40 Tejas Mk.1s during their mid-life upgrades), then all the more reason why a total of 160 Tejas Mk.1As ought to be ordered. Nor is there any need to procure FICVs if the IA decides to go for at least 800 FSCVs like the BMP-2 Terminator.

To RAD: Not if the PLAGF’s heliborne forces arrive first at all possible blocking points (like mountain passes) & are also able to deploy air-mobile brigades to counter the advancing IA forces & that’s why the PLAGF has been building a string of helicopter bases through out the areas facing the LAC, and are not building any dedicated PLAAF air bases. All A310-300s of AI were sold off. Yes, all PLAGF’s direct combat & combat-support formations are not all-volunteer forces. Only 25% of each formation has permanent staff while the rest are all conscripts. In other words, four PLAGF infantry divisions are equal to a single IA infantry division in terms of experience & proficiency.

Meanwhile, watch how the NSA’s SIGINT capabilities discovered that the Wuhan P-4 Bio-Lab had suffered “Hazardous Event” between October 6 & 11 last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LR4JNv78Zw

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD: All such infrastructure will then become loss-making ventures for both China & Pakistan. And India can also alter the waterflows to ensure that areas within PoK like Muzaffarabad are not starved of water resources as is the present-day situation. Below are the hydro-electric projects either already or in the process of being implemented in PoK:

Diamer-Bhasha Dam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7y_pooWE3w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCDiPIJ9M0E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDt9r0WqylU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-X_0UGjNik
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqvRRxIhzro

Neelum Jhelum HPP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOJ6i-piwDs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NP0MZb-LROQ

PATRIND HPP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBC7J052phA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xYhgbEP_wA

Jagran HPP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA4erlzUMaE&t=25s

Gulpur HPP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSPG44SmNEk

Dasu Dam: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rawv8q_jLP8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Tl3UcxZcG8

Karot HPP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9eQ1-GxPo0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVbHNaXpLQY

The IAF will require at least 80 heavylift helicopters like the CH-47F Chinook, plus a total fleet of 250 Mi-17V-5s for airlifting & deploying an entire brigade of IA troops & related war materials.

To HARDIK THANKI: Yes, that’s right, provided the wire-guided version of the Varunastra HWT can be developed within the next 5 years.

To SK: 3) Not such pods, but ASCMs in general do not require mid-course guidance due to the extremely short timeframes involved. 4) AGM-158C LRASM depends on both manned/unmanned maritime surveillance platforms as well as space-based overhead recce assets for mid-course guidance/re-targetting. This type of network-centric warfare capability is still a few decades away in India.

To PRATAP: The mere fact that the IAF has deployed its AH-64Es in Jodhpur & Pathankot reveals that such attack helicopters will be used only for blunting enemy mechanised/armoured formation advances across the IB & WB, i.e. in the Cholistan/Thjar deserts & at Chhamb. Along the LoC, attack helicopters can only be employed over the Chumbi Valley in case the PLAGF is stupid enough to advance along narrow valleys towards the Siliguri Corridor.

To VARUN: The IAF will require at least 80 heavylift helicopters like the CH-47F Chinook, plus a total fleet of 250 Mi-17V-5s for airlifting & deploying an entire brigade of IA troops & related war materials.

To ANIK: LoLz! The B.707s were ARC were retired way back in the mid-1980s itself after ARC invested in acquiring G-3 & Learjet 35A platforms. Therefore, what was airborne was a IN P-8I whose nose-mounted multi-mode radar from Raytheon can do SAR ground-mapping & the P-8I also has a radar fingerprinting system on board for conducting ELINT missions. That’s why the P-8I was also used for such taskings back in 2017 during the Doklam standoff.

To DEFENSE & AEROSPACE: 1) That news-report only states that the IN is waiting for the DRDO-developed AIP, & it says so here:

Indian Navy needs the much-desired stealth of AIP soon as it is a design capability of the Kalvari class submarine. A technology transfer of AIP system to a suitably capable local industry once DRDO’s Lab version is established, shall boost the private industry under the Make in India initiative.

Consequently, no imported AIP solutions are being sought. 2) Yes, that’s true.

To KAPIL: As of now, the IMRH remains a pipedream. Before that, let the LCH & LUH be delivered, followed by a version of the navalised Dhruv ALH will re-engineered main rotor-blade hub & folding main rotor-blades so that such a helicopter can become shipborne.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

VMT. So with the test of the upgraded A-5 stage 3, and with other such tests in the pipeline, we may expect a MIRVed test in the next 2 years or so. Correct ?

Satyaki

just_curious said...

Prasun ,
1- Thx for your replies. so its seems right to conclude that the strategic partnership model comes across as a flawed & not well thought of, latest in a series of disappointments for the biggies in the private industry more imp those who have deep pockets and were willing to participate. It also reflects very poorly on India's image amongst major international manufacturers...I'm all for indigenous products but then the MoD & its babus ought to have had a clear plan. Nobody would have batted an eyelid if additional rafale orders were processed along with expediting tejas. Guess, as you also mention basic common sense is a rae connodity in govt circles. I suspect the IAF also played its part resulting in these flip-flops.Uncle sam wud not be happy(F-21)..afterall we dangled the carrots
2- http://idrw.org/pak-china-accord-on-dam-spells-trouble-for-ladakh/#more-227427.. your views on this .. China is relentlessly pursuing its objective to put india down and yet we are not ready to respond (Taiwan).. sad state of affairs. If this impinges on the INdus treaty then there should be a hue n cry...use all methods to stall
3- You mention 80 heavy lift helos.. is Mi -26 T2 to be considered given that it carries 2x the load of chinooks. alternatively India could opt for chinooks with uprated engines---https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28157/boeing-to-flight-test-ch-47-with-same-monster-engines-found-on-sikorskys-new-ch-53k. or participate in the JVL heavy category as the US has already invited india to the programme(the tiltrotors are somethng the forces should be interested in given the range & speed they offer )
4- You may have replied to this earlier. but can you please inform again if India has contracted turkish shipyards for fleet support vessels

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

1. Everything is fine. Then what's stopping GoI to procure more Chinook and Mi-17v5 copters. Further, Ka-226 too is not required; so the money can be diverted to what's required from what's NOT required. Why is it so difficult to plan? Is it because GoI feels that high intensity war is far distant with China?

2. Why does India shivers before China in international forum? I have never seen India showing goosebumps to China. If India wants it won't accept the sovereignity of China over Tibet and openly recognise Taiwan. Why is it so difficult? Why can't India change the expansionist mindset of China? Please enlighten.

just_curious said...

Interesting read .. sounds appealing to IA's needs . could also go abord future IN LHD's https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28157/boeing-to-flight-test-ch-47-with-same-monster-engines-found-on-sikorskys-new-ch-53k

Hoe many Mi 17's (all versions) are currently in use by the IAF?

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

1.Can the inferior home grown fighter like Tejas Mk1A help fullfill it's requirements? Shouldn't India look for MWF as it will be able to do the job if no concessions are given?
2. How many concessions are given in Mk1A fighter. I can recall you telling me earlier Mk1 has more than 40 concessions.

Arun said...

Hello Prasun sir.I do not know much about defence matters but what you wrote a few comments above is scary.I have a few questions:

1)You said that we need at least 80 Chinooks and 250 M17 v-5s.I did a google search and saw that we will have 22 Chinooks and we have 151 M17 v-5s.So there is a shortfall of almost 60 Chinooks and 100 M17 v-5s.Do you think that this gap will be plugged in the next 10 years?

2)Out of the mistakes that you mentioned above,one was the delay in procuring M-777s.I have read that we procured 145 M777s and K9 Vajras,etc.Have we plugged this artillery gap?If not,are we on the way to do so?I do get the impression that more efforts have been made to plug the gaps in artillery compared to choppers.

3)You said above that we at present don't have much offensive capability in Tibet.Does the same hold true for Aksai Chin and Shaksgam Valley?

4)Like you said in the post,a major war between two nuclear powers is extremely unlikely.But do you think that there will be a limited war with China within the next 20 years?If I were in China's place,I would focus on trying to close the gap with the US and not ignite a war.

Thanks and looking forward to your response.

BENO said...

Sir,
1. With regarding to assault rifles procurement army has already inked for an contact for sig 716. Also then the ak 203 in the making and then comes drdo ghaatak? Where does all these fit into?
2.do mh-60r come under the category of 10 tonne or 12 tonne helicopter?
3. With regarding to pok you have mentioned get back pok or take back pok? What is the difference
4. Do you think India will take a strong position in the WHO?

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

1. Tonbo Imaging wrote a letter to the PM explaining the hurdles they face as an Indian defence company

https://twitter.com/YusufDFI/status/1261226026291523584?s=20

SSS Defence has also lend their support to Tonbo

https://twitter.com/Viv_Krishnan/status/1261223996604862464?s=20

2. Lt Gen (Retd) H S Panag spoke here about the qualitative change in the training of Pakistani terrorists coming across the border.

https://theprint.in/opinion/instead-of-organising-spectacles-military-must-focus-on-faultlines-in-kashmir-now/415818/

This means Indian Army will also have to bring about qualitative changes to its own training, isn't it?

Regards,
VIKRAM


Ayush said...

Prasun sir, some readers are eager for India to become a part of US FVL and Next generation combat vehicle project. Is there any possibility of this? Or should we just buy them directly from US somewhere in 2030s?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: Absolutely.

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Absolutely. After all, why try to create a private-sector clone of OFB when OFB itself can produce all the desired results if it is publicly-listed & owned & is freed from the MoD’s management shackles? After all, Royal Ordnance & GIAT Industries that were once govt-owned were privatised into BAE Systems & Nexter Systems & everyone can see their global dominance & competitiveness. So why try to create duplicate military-industrial infrastructure? By now, everyone knows that ADA was created by pinching all skilled human resources from HAL in the late 1980s. Why was it done? Why was HAL not authorised to develop the LCA? 2) The course of the Indus River cannot be changed in any way byChina because the only other direction that river can be made to flow is via the area which now constitutes the Siachen Glacier area & even there the water-flows will be greatly reduced due to very little snow melting at such altitudes. Hence, Pakistan has always sought to covet BOTH the Ladakh area & Kashmir Valley in its attempts to emerge as the upper riparian state vis-à-vis India under its so-called Chenab Plan. 3) No, because it is horrendously expensive to operate the Mi-26T2, i.e. it requires 100 man-hours of maintenance per flying hour, as against only 40 man-hours reqd for the CH-47F. 4) No contract has been inked for any FRVs from any Turkey, leave alone Turkey. The only contract inked so far is for the 10-tonne NMRH. In February 2020, India became the latest country to select the MH-60R Seahawk. The contract for 24 MH-60Rs was inked on May 14, 2020. About 180 Mi-17s of all types are presently in service.

To ASD: 1) because the IA has not yet sorted out its own institutional deficiencies, meaning it continues to use terms like mountain warfare, whereas all PLA references to warfighting in TAR use the term “high-altitude plateau warfare”. 2) That is due to a defensive mindset. India therefore has a lot to learn from Vietnam. Talking of playing second-fiddle to China, this will set your blood boiling:

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/what-if-nehru-had-used-the-iaf-in-1962/20190301.htm

And here is an example of intellectual dishonesty:

https://theprint.in/opinion/for-operation-falcon-maj-gen-jimmy-asked-for-mules-but-army-chief-sundarji-gave-helicopters/421730/

The writer gives only half the story & fails to mention why India failed to militarily dislodge the PLA from Sumdorong Chu. The reality was explained by me here:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2016/08/high-altitude-manoeuvre-warfare.html

You can see the present-day dispositions in the last slide that I have uploaded above.

To ARUN: 1) If the gap is not bridged, then India might as well as forget the prospect of militarily defending her territories both along & beyond the LAC. 2) Not yet. For deployments along the LAC for both defensive & offensive purposes, the IA requires up to 400 UFHs, followed by 814 MGS. 3) Yes, of course. 4) Only if China is able to tilt the balance of miitary power all along the LAC.

To BENO: 1) have explained that several times before. 2) 10-tonne. 3) Taking back involves the exercising of military force & power, whereas getting back means utilising both soft power & hard miitary power/force. 4) One can only hope so.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) Why should that surprise anybody? After all, even during a pandemic, the GoI awards contracts for essential medical products like respirators/ventilators to only DPSUs & PSUs. 2) he has written a much better piece that explains in great detail with facts & figures the present-day military strengths & weaknesses within the Kashmir Valley & one can read it here:

https://theprint.in/opinion/strengthen-counter-infiltration-grid-move-10-rr-battalion-from-terror-ops/421059/

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/world/story/how-china-has-expanded-its-influence-in-the-arabian-sea-1678167-2020-05-15?__twitter_impression=true

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Discussion on GB's Future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZMWk-HTTck

BND's Claims About Beijing's Cover-Up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiYqZuXN4xU

Mohan said...

prasun sir,
1.how many more z-8g,z-20,mi-17 are required by Chinese to field offence instead of defensive?
2.does your remote viewing say anything about air land joint operation to get back pok before 2024 or 2,3 years after?

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

1. How many concessions are there in Mk1A fighter? I can recall you telling me earlier Mk1 has more than 40 concessions.

2. Are you happy with the 20 lakh crore stimulus package and it's recent implementation, especially redefining the essential commoditiy act? Share your views.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

I think GoI is giving heed to your words:

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/lava-to-shift-operations-from-china-to-india-invest-rs-800-crore-in-5-years/1960602/lite/

Focus is on localisation of manufacturing of electronics items in India.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

In today's meeting, a shot in the arm. Corporatisation of OFB. This is what you have been vying for. I hope the stimulus meets your hope to a large extent.

VIKRAM GUHA said...

Thanks PrasunDa.

1. Maybe that's why not too many SMEs in India apply for licences to design, manufacture H/W for the military because they know they won't get any orders from MoD. I also hear that getting hold of a defence manufacturing for a SME is extremely difficult.

2. Rajnath Singh has approved the launch of Defence Testing Infrastructure Scheme (DTIS). Guidelines can be found here:

https://ddpmod.gov.in/sites/default/files/pdfupload/DTIS%20Guidelines.pdf

3. Former French Rafale pilot describes how he brought down an F 22 during an exercise

https://www.youtube.com/embed/pVBhl6qZDNg

Anonymous said...

Sir
Just asking what if Christian rulers or church were to invade India during medieval period and assimilate with Indian population instead of Islamic rulers what would have happened ?
Because in church the renaissance happened just after the plague in 14th century whereas in Hinduism it occurred in 19th century and in Islam it never happened in India?
My question is would India had Been developed state if church would occupied India instead of Qasim?
I think whole sub-continent would have been intact in one piece and technological developments ( industrial revolution) removing poverty like happened in Europe and all the ills which India is facing right now Would have gone

Also comment on Why Islamic rulers during medieval period who had ruled major landmass on earth on par with Christian rulers of Europe in both economically and militarily had failed to catch up with Christian rulers during modern period(scientific advancement)and Subsequently became sub servant to West Countries
Rajendra

Arun said...

Thanks for your response sir.I do hope that the gaps are fixed.Some follow up questions:

1)There are 4 countries in the QUAD right now.Likely that other countries like South Korea,Taiwan,Vietnam and even New Zealand might join the QUAD.Do you see the QUAD morphing into an Asia-Pacific NATO?

2)If the Asia-Pacific NATO becomes a reality,will that be a strong deterrent against China and prevent it from igniting a limited war against India or any other member in the alliance?

3)As far as ASEAN is concerned,Vietnam is obviously in the anti-China camp.Cambodia and Laos seem to be inclined more towards China.Which way do you think the rest will swing?

Thanks and looking forward to your response.

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Now that MH60R will be fast tracked hope the frigates and destroyers will have dignificantly enhanced capabilities.This was long overdue. Got to see some videos in social media about IA sniping on PA and terrorists across LOC. Looks like it has boosted the confidence and morale of frontline soldiers.

When will we actually make a start towards annexing POK and GB. Has COVID19 delayed it indefinitely.

How are we progressing in acquiring nuclear submarines? What is the actual deployment status of K4 missil

mg6357 said...

Hi Prasunji,

Could you please make a thread on what N. Sitaraman has declared regarding 74 % FDI limit in Defence sector because you could point out finer details, advantages & disadvantages of these reforms amongst these clauses, future impact on our Military Industrial Complex.

This would help us in understanding more regarding these defence & aerospace related reforms.

One more point I noticed that, N. Sitaraman talked about banning imports on a list of defence products and buying only Indian made products.

Isn't this the 21st century version of "Import Substitution" tried by Indira Gandhi ?

Correct me if I am wrong, but, in my opinion, this is a foolish idea. Instead of banning the product, we should let it compete against Indian made products and choose the winner.

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Will the Middle East go nuclear?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCOo16hCSxM

After watching the above video, tough times ahead for India, Pakistan, Iran and Middle east.

I have few questions for You.

1. If KSA & UAE go for Nuclear, and ask India's Help, whether India will do it.

2. What will happen for India-Iran relation.

3. Is US & Israel Pre planned to Stop the Iran nuclear deal, so that all middle east countries will fight against each other which will help Israel. Is it true.

4. By giving its Nuclear weapon to KSA, Whether Pakistan will become hero in Arab world which they can use to cut the Arab-India relations.

5. In today's estimate, how long will take Iran to detonate is first Atomic Bomb.

Please comment.

Thanks & Regards
Senthil Kumar

Ant said...

Hi prasun sir,is general bibin rawats statement regarding military's role merely due to circumstances or he is trying to buttering up his masters
https://mybs.in/2YNC7l5

AMIT BISWAS said...

Things Cut In Half (@ThingsCutlnHaIf) Tweeted:
Submarine cut in half https://t.co/ySOUnPeGbC https://twitter.com/ThingsCutlnHaIf/status/1261650394154962951?s=20


What a cramped space inside this old sub...how the design has improved upon in new gen subs like Scorpene in terms of space utilisation??

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SENTHIL KUMAR: Neither of those countries possess the kind of human resources reqd for indigenously producing nuclear WMDs. Consequently, the second best option for them is to acquire nuclear umbrellas from either any of the superpowers, or from Israel or India.

To ANT: The CDS is stating plain facts, but they are now being seen as bitter pills because between 1998 & 2019 several erroneous & outrageous statements were made by both civilian netas & men-in-uniform that had presented a false picture on warfighting capabilities & full-spectrum deterrence. For instance, after May 1998 there was simply no need to maintain large offensive strike corps formations along the IB to the west because India had by then had declared TNWs that could be used inside Indian territory as an act of self-defence (as mandated by the UN’s Charter) if the PA’s offensive strike corps dared invade India. Consequently, there was no need to resort to a ‘No First Use’ doctrine. All that India should have stated was that ‘Being a responsible power, India will also use its nuclear WMDs responsibly.’ And yet, as far back as 2013 when the then IA’s COAS Gen Bikram Singh was asked why the IA was wasting money on training its strike corps to fight in the deserts of Rajasthan, he had then said that such formations were reqd for deterrence purposes. In other words, even back then, India’s decision-makers did not fully grasp the true deterrent effects of nuclear WMDs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MOHAN: 1) Double the number that it is presently acquiring. 2) No.

To ASD: 1) The concessions were given for the Mk.1 & not for the Mk.1A. 2) Let us see what the methodology for implementing these policy initiatives are. After all, the devil always lurks within the detail. For instance, Apple wanted to move to India even before for building smartphones. But the GoI had at that time mandated that it start with 50% indigenous content, whereas Aple had wanted to start with 30% & gradually increase Indian content. Thus, one can see that many a time, outrageous inflexibilities by certain Indian govt depts tend to scuttle several such industrial initiatives. 3) Corporatisation of OFB won’t produce any results, reast assured, just as corporatisation of BSNL decades ago did not make BSNL profitable. The only option now is: transform OFB into a public-listed entity like L & T, in which the GoI can own up to 32% share-holding. Anything else is pure wishful thinking & utter BAKWAAS.

To ANUP: What is the mandated methodology for attaining self-sufficiency in spares production & indigenisation of spares? Is it just reverse-engineering or limited re-engineering? In that case, which entity will certify the spares as being of credible quality? Will the MSME or any other DPSU responsible for indigenising the spares be able to do so with the consent & cooperation of the foreign OEMs? What if the foreign OEMs are excluded from this process & are denied royalty for their IPRs? Will the OEMs then retaliate by charging exhorbitant prices when their support is necessary, such as when being asked to be part of accident investigation committees? Or will the GoI make it mandatory for MSMEs to team up & cooperate with the foreign OEMs for mass-producing spares & thereby not violating any IPRs?

Thus, as one can see, there are several additional hurdles that need to be overcome before tom=toming the mantra of “Atma-Nirbhartaa”/Indigenisation.

To SANJAY MULKIKAR: There are several options available, such as undertaking a series of ‘salami-tactics’ tactical offensives that will result in liberating portions of PoK one at a time, while all the while bringing the various CPEC-related projects closer to the engagement envelopes of Indian field artillery & tactical interdiction aircraft. Consequently, China will come under increasing pressure to withdraw its citizens from such areas.

To RAJENDRA: Hypothetically, had India been colonised overwjhelmingly by Christians, then the industrial revolution & the consequent educational renaissance would perhaps arrived in India much earlier.

Invisible People of CPEC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-ODqSiguMA&t=2s

To VIKRAM GUHA: This programme gives some interesting statistics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfsvdEPbeh0&t=41s

According to it, India’s gold wealth (govt-owned & privately owned) is valued at US$1 trillion, while real estate owned by the Christian Churches are estimated at Rs.6,000 crore & that of the various Muslim Wakf Boards are valued at Rs.60 lakh crore. So, if one can monetise them intelligently, it will appear that there’s no dearth of capital in India & all that is reqd are innovative win-win methodologies for mobilising such wealth.

To ARUN: 1 & 2) That will be the ONLY OPTION left on the table if India continues to play second-fiddle to China. 3) The winning party will always claim to have a thousand fathers, while the defeated party will always remain an orphan.

To MG6357: The ban will include only high-volume items like ammunition, BMCS modules & fuzes, about which there will always be assured demand. In my view, the ban should also include items like Ka-226T LUHs & the 4 additional Project 1135.6 FFGs from GSL.

just_curious said...

Prasun,
1 interesting read ---http://idrw.org/islamic-charities-linked-to-terror-groups-in-pakistan-funded-by-us-government/.. US playing both sides?
2 OFB corporatiosation all "majdoor unions" including RSS affiliated are up in arms threating strikes

Ant said...

VMT for your reply. Does this underlines armys dominance on india's military doctrine, where air force and navy has only supportive role only. Indian navy considers it as net security provider of indian ocean region and air force also wants larger role. If the military chiefs remarks coincide with that of the goverments thinking, then , does it has any impact on big ticket purchases like third aircraft carrier, lpd, ssn or future heavy/medium fighter procurement.

DynaDemos said...

Why india did not join RCEP prasun sir.Do you personally think make in india can take off in india?

AD said...

Dada,

Hope you are doing well.

1. You mentioned in a reply to one of my previous query that all the latest SONARs from DRDO are low frequency SONARs vis a vis current global trend of ultra low frequency SONAR. Is DRDO working on to upgrade/develop ultra low frequency SONAR?

2. You also mentioned that DRDO will not develop any hypersonic missile based on technology of HSTDV. Then what will be the outcome of HSTDV project? Will it be used for developing Hypersonic warheads to be implanted on top of Ballistic Missiles?

3. Can you write a blog on future indigenous MBT please?

4, As you mentioned there is no missile called AGNI -6. Does that mean there will not be any Ground Launched Ballistic Missile having longer range than AGNI-5?

5. What about ranges of different K series missile and their status please?

6. I can remember you mentioned earlier Arihant cannot be used to fire K-4 missile. Can you elaborate on SSBN which will be able to deploy K-4 and longer range SLBM?

7. Is India planning to acquire any LRAAM from abroad or DRDO is working on LRAAM? You explained earlier SFDR based AAM under development by DRDO is a BVRAAM, not LRAAM.

8. What will be future of ATAGS project? You mentioned with the advent of NLOS SS BSM , towed artillery is sitting ducks.

9. Referring to your statement "At the tactical unit-level, the PLAGF has since 2017 accelerated service-induction of direct fire-support weapons like shoulder-carried LP D-50 flamethrowers and shoulder-launched ‘Hidden Blade’ thermobaric missiles," is India procuring or developing such weapons? How these weapon systems can be countered?

10. Is IN procuring any LHD/LPD/LPH? If yes, would it be LPD or LPH or LHD. I guess difference among them is LPD can carry maximum 4 helo, whereas for LPH the count is 16 max and anything above this threshold is dubbed as LHD.

Arun said...

Another day and another rant on Twitter about Kashmir by the Prime Minister of Pakistan.And once again,it was about a potential false flag operation by India against Pakistan.Which means that Pakistan has the intention to carry out a big attack in Kashmir.Fools wanting to execute a terrorist attack despite the fact that the FATF albatross is hanging around their neck.They are so obsessed with Kashmir and hate India so much that they are willing to do the stupidest of things.Pakistan will be destroyed one day.I have no doubt about that.But I hope that the physical destruction comes with the destruction of their mindset as well.

Anonymous said...

Can you dwell upon why Islamic rulers like Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II decimated Byzantine capital of Constantinople and Mughal rulers conquered India shaped a new course of history for centuries has been failed to embrace industrial revolution and The Renaissance?

Rajendra

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

a.https://idrw.org/one-villager-killed-others-injured-as-army-tries-to-catch-ultras-in-arunachal-pradesh-village/---Prasun Da, please share your views on the above, it appears that NSCN fraction is copying the tactics employed by the Jehadi Module in the Kashmir valley. What should be the response ?

B. And it seems that India backs independent probe in WHO regarding Covid 19, now what's next backing Taiwan to gain observer status in WHO ?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-wants-covid-19-origin-probed-seeks-impartial-review-of-who-response/story-nw3ir6VDPywAwLYs5bOVGO_amp.html

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