Pakistani Falsehoods Finally Exposed By Native Pakistanis

To uphold one lie, several more lies have to be uttered. This is what best sums up all that has been emanating from Pakistan over the past 48 hours. The original lie unleashed by Pakistan was on February 27, 2019—this being the failed air-strike mounted earlier that day by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) against Indian military installations located in southern Jammu & Kashmir. To recollect, it was at 9:42am that the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) Integrated Air Command and Control Station (IACCS) at Bhatinda warned of an increase in PAF air activity over central and western Pakistan. The PAF had launched clusters of combat aircraft from Kamra, Murid, Chander, Sargodha, Rafiqui and Jacobabad. While some of them were seen cruising at medium altitude and had initially switched on their identification friend-or-foe transponders initially (as a decoy—they were showing themselves to the IAF’s IACCS to make it seem like routine activity), the others tried to hide at low-altitude. Soon, the PAF combat aircraft clusters regrouped into strike-packages and turned east for the attack. The first enemy strike-package turned east over the Chicken’s Neck area at 9:58am on the Akhnoor axis, and approached the LoC at 10:06am. Another package approached further north along the Poonch axis, staggered by five to seven minutes. A third package was opposite Anupgarh in northern Punjab state of India. Each package had eight to ten aircraft, supported by multiple combat air patrols, Saab 2000 AEW & CS platforms and Dassault Falcon-20s for electronic jamming support. On the Indian side there were two upgraded Mirage-2000Ns on combat air patrol (CAP) east of Udhampur, and two Su-30MKIs near Srinagar. In addition, two MiG-21 Bisons were scrambled in two lots (10:01am and 10:03am) from Srinagar, two more Bisons from Awantipur, two upgraded MiG-29UPGs from Adampur and two Su-30MKIs each from Halwara, Bathinda and Jodhpur—totalling 18 platforms. The PAF ensured that its combat aircraft did not cross either the IB or the LoC. Two MiG-21 Bisons, flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman and Squadron Leader Vyas, were scrambled from Srinagar at 10:03am for intercepting the PAF strike-package on the Poonch axis. On reaching the sector, Abhinandan spotted enemy aircraft flying at low-level, and the IACCS Station informed him that all aircraft to his west were hostile. He went for the target-in-contact on close combat mode with Vympel R-73E short-range air-to-air missiles. The IACCS Station had subsequently asked that IAF formation to turn back because of the threat developing on them. Vyas heard the call and turned around. PAF electronic jamming prevented Abhinandan from getting the call. In the melee, it is presumed that his MiG-21 Bison shot down a PAF F-16D, while breaking off from the attack. The PAF dropped 11 weapons—two each at Kishan Ghati Top (Nangi Tekri), Bhimber Gali (Hamirpur), Kesbowl and Tackundi Bowl, and one each at the 251 Ammunition Point in Rajouri and the FSD at Narian, and one at Bharat Gala—but could not cause any damage. The debris indicated the use of DENEL-supplied H-4 TV-guided gliding PGMs (range 120km) and China-supplied range extension kits or REK (60km) fitted to Mk.83 bombs.

Why did such weapons not cause any material damage? There are two reasons. First, the PAF’s two strike-packages were forced to turn back by the IAF’s interception packages before the former could complete the weapons targetting procedures. Second, the PAF’s strike-packages were not allowed effective follow-through, i.e. the time taken for ensuring uninterrupted man-in-the-loop targeting was denied, and in turn prevented the PAF from obtaining the real-time video imagery required for conclusively proving to the world that it had indeed achieved what it had set out to do. Five AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles were fired by the PAF’s F-16s. But why were such BVRAAMs ineffective? One theory is that PAF wanted to draw the IAF’s interceptor packages into a planned kill box without crossing the LoC and use the AMRAAMs to score aerial kills. Since this ploy did not succeed, the PAF launched the AIM-120C-5s at longer ranges. The IAF thus simply defeated the PAF’s AMRAAMs with superior manoeuvring and EW tactics.

Therefore, by afternoon on February 27, the IAF and PAF had two all-new taskings. For the IAF, it was all about securing the immediate and unconditional release of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, while for the PAF it was all about trying to convince Pakistan’s domestic audience that its conventional deterrent posture had indeed produced the desired results. The Govt of India used the back-channels established by the Prime Minister’s Office with POTUS Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and with the ruling royal family of the United Arab Emirates to convey to Pakistan its 1-point demand about Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman’s immediate and unconditional release (a fully justified demand since Abhinandan’s MiG-21 Bison was shot down while conducting a purely defensive air operation, and his flight was neither intended nor armed for causing any material damage to life or property on the ground and hence did not qualify as an aggression-driven mission). India also conveyed that any attempt by Pakistan to either refuse to or delay the release of Abhinandan within 48 hours will result in the IAF conducting pulverising air-strikes lasting up to a week against all eight Brigades of the 60,000-strong, PoK-based Mujahid Force that comes under the command of the Pakistan Army’s (PA) Rawalpindi HQed X Corps. The Mujahid Force exists as irregular combatants and owes allegiance to the ‘Azad Kashmir Regiment’, which has 32 Infantry Battalions distributed among 8 Brigades. The 1 AK Brigade is located in Muzaffarabad, the 2 AK Brigade in Rawalakot, the 3 AK Brigade in Kotli (has an area of responsibility located opposite to the Rajouri, Poonch, Naushera and Sunderbani sectors), the 4 AK Brigade in Bandli, the 5 AK Brigade in Dhani, the 6 AK Brigade in Bagh, the 7 AK Brigade in Bhimber, and the 32 AK Brigade in Kel. The Mujahid Force comprises the 640, 641, 647, 652, 654, 655, 815, 834, 841, and 886 Battalions of the PA. The 656 Battalion is the Mujahid Force Training Centre at Bhimber.

For Pakistan, the Indian demand and threat posed a double whammy: how could the PAF justify its claim of having restored credible conventional deterrence vis-à-vis the IAF on February 27 if just a short while later it was seen unable to prevent the IAF from decimating the eight AK Brigades that were forward-deployed in PoK along the LoC, especially at a time when the PAF’s POL stockpiles were way below its 20-day general service aviation fuel reserves and consequently, at best, the PAF would have ceased to be an effective fighting force after the first four days of intensive flying under war-like conditions? Only later did become known that it was this very reason that caused Pakistan to extend the ban on its airspace for all India-origin commercial flights till June 28, 2020—this being the only way of minimising the quantum of CAP sorties required to be flown by the PAF along the IB, WB and LoC.

Thus, by the night of February 27, the stage was set for Pakistan to commence drafting a series of indefensible falsehoods in a vain attempt to domestically acquire moral ascendancy. The first falsehood, the brainchild of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Directorate, was selectively released on February 28 to a few Pakistani journalists (who are on the ISPR’s regular payrolls) who via their respective VBlogs claimed that India, with Israel’s help, was all set to fire 12 missiles of an unspecified type from Rajasthan against five sites inside Pakistan. The second consequent falsehood, also the ISPR’s brainchild, was next propagated first by Pakistan’s PM Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi himself during a press-conference with local journalists on the same day, during which he also went on to claim that Pakistan had achieved success in thwarting such Indian missile-strikes, but did not go into specifics. It was only in the afternoon of March 1 that the Pakistani PM revealed on the floor of Pakistan’s National Assembly that Abhinandan would be released unconditionally later that same day as a unilateral gesture of goodwill. Three days later, on March 4, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi made the final sensational claim: it was Pakistan’s magnanimity that had resulted in Abhinandan’s swift and unconditional release and that it was this gesture that was responsible for thwarting India’s planned missile-strikes.

In addition, a series of elaborately-staged actions followed throughout March 2019 to try to reinforce the earlier falsehoods about India’s planned missile-strikes and to justify the continued denial of transit overflights by India-origin airliners through Pakistani airspace. For instance, on March 4, 2019 at around 11am a PAF-operated Falco UAS, which had taken off from Bahawalpur Airport, entered Indian airspace near the BSF’s Soorma and K K Tibba outposts at Anupgarh in Rajasthan’s Sri Ganganagar district. The UAS was intercepted and shot down with 30mm cannon-fire by a Su-30MKI belonging to Jodhpur-based 31 ‘Lions’ Sqn with Su-30MKIs. Debris of this UAS fell just inside Pakistan. Five days later, Indian Army (IA) troops shot down a locally-made Pakistani drone in Sri Ganganagar sector (Rajasthan) as it entered Indian airspace 7.30pm. Earlier in the day, a similar drone tried to enter Indian territory at 5am at Hindumalkot border near Sri Ganganagar, but the drone had to take u-turn as it was sighted by IA troops who started firing. Another such drone was destroyed after it came across in Sri Ganganagar on March 24 evening. The drone was near the Satrana and Jagdev border outposts in the area when it was detected by radars, which led to anti-aircraft guns opening up to prevent its ingress further into Indian territory.

And yet, 20 months later, in Pakistan the debate still rages on about the swift and unconditional release of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman; while the PAF till this day has not been able to produce any video or HUD camera imagery of its air-strikes on Indian targets on the morning of February 27, 2019; nor has any native of Jammu & Kashmir UT been able to capture any video footage of the Su-30MKI that the PAF claims to have downed on that same day—this being the most embarrassing reality, especially if one were to believe Islamabad’s repeated claims about every Muslim native of J & K UT preferring Pakistan’s two-nation theory and rejecting secular India.