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Friday, May 14, 2021

PLAGF’s Modular Combined-Arms Brigades and Combined-Arms Battalions Explained

First and foremost, China and the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) are looking to become what they call a “Great Power,” as they were centuries ago. We can trace much of this back to 1979, when Deng Xiaoping implemented a massive reform effort in the wake of Mao’s death a few years earlier. He set the goal to become a “moderately developed” country by the mid-21st century, which is usually interpreted as the centennial anniversary of the PRC, or 2049. When this goal was first established, China was very literally dirt-poor by global standards. It had to make major changes to their economy and society at large in order to build the foundation for achieving what they now call the “China Dream.” Officially, the CPC does not use language that suggests that it is looking to supplant any existing world power; it does not discuss spreading the communist political ideology; it does not discuss having the most powerful military, or the most political influence, or the greatest scientific or industrial base. Instead, it talks about being a leader in each of these areas—one of many leaders. That being said, it still faces significant challenges in achieving its goals. The most important aspect of this from the military’s perspective is understanding the path that China adopted following Deng Xiaoping’s ascent. In the early 1980s, Deng stated that he did not think a large-scale war was likely. At the time, this meant that China could essentially postpone building a strong military, and instead, focus China’s limited resources on building its economy, science and technology base, and a variety of other social, non-military issues. This was a significant contrast compared to the massive investments in the military one saw in other one-party states, such as the Soviet Union or North Korea. The military’s development essentially was subordinated to national economic development, and for much of the first 20 years after Mao’s death, the military was relegated to a background role from a budgetary perspective. The defence spending in this era was in the single-digit billions, for a force numbering 4 million soldiers. Compare this to the US spending of around $400 billion for a force roughly half that size.

In the mid to late 1990s, with its economy growing at a rapid rate, China started spending more money directly on the military. In the mid-1990s, China’s defence spending hit $10 billion, and grew consistently after that, roughly in step with the growth of the GDP. Growth varied year to year, averaging over 10% annually, but the upward trend was consistent. Today, the spending is around one-third of the US. This has given the PLA far more resources to throw at new equipment and training. However, it should be noted that the growth of the military budget remains subordinate to, but coordinated with, national economic development and the communist party controls the allocation of resources. China’s military development goals were first quietly announced in the late 1990s, then announced more publicly in 2006. They all described a three-step development process for military modernisation: placing benchmarks at 2010, 2020 and mid-century, meaning 2049, indicating a very long-term outlook for military modernisation. Specific objectives have been adjusted slightly over the years and President Xi Jinping recently added a new milestone in 2035, acknowledging that the 2010 date had passed. By 2020, the PLA expects its current set of reforms to be complete, and will have achieved mechanisation of the PLAGF. By the time of Xi’s new benchmark, the PLA seeks to have fully modernised equipment, training, personnel structure, and doctrine. By 2049, the PLA looks to be a “world-class military.” Officially, the CPC consistently uses the wording A world-class military, not THE world-class military. But, the CPC does not define what a world-class military is, a lesson learned from previous rounds of reform, where certain goals were set out, and then adjusted.

It was in the spring of 2014 that a task force was formed in Beijing to draw up an over-arching reform blueprint for the entire PLAGF. It involved more 690 civilian and military departments, 900 serving and retired commanders and experts, 2,165 Brigade-level and above officers, and ultimately resulted in excess of 800 meetings and took into account more than 3,400 comments and recommendations from the rank-and-file. The blueprint was revised more than 150 times and was finalised in November 2015. Subsequently, the PLAGF underwent thorough reforms, demobilising 300,000 personnel, constituting almost half of non-combat positions and 30% of the officer corps. It is the most comprehensive of all PLAGF reforms in recent memory and has radically changed the way the PLAGF operates. A new training syllabus also went into effect in January 2018, having been in the works since April 2013. The overriding priority of the new syllabus is to have a high degree of realism with emphasis on new modes of warfare such as jointness and network-centric manoeuvre warfare.

One important thing about these developmental objectives is that while some Western analysts and governments suggest that China is attempting to achieve hegemony in the Indo-Pacific region in the near term—and global hegemony in the long term—the CPC does not use the term hegemony to describe its own objectives. In fact, it uses the term “hegemony” to describe other powers—currently, like the US, and historically, like the USSR—in a pejorative sense. It also does not use the term Indo-Pacific as we understand it—its focus is on China-claimed territories and the near seas. As for more specific objectives, one can see China’s securing its perceived borders and territory, deterring attacks on the mainland, peaceful reunification of Taiwan, and maintaining claims in the near seas as the primary political objectives. Most other international objectives focus more on economic and commercial development, such as the Belt-Road Initiative. While these efforts are widely publicised, they likely are not as well-planned and organised as we’re led to think they are. They will, however, eventually necessitate a greater PLA military presence overseas that likely will require an improved naval and expeditionary capability. We are seeing this effort drive the expansion of the PLA Navy and Marine Corps—the Marine Corps, for example, has more than tripled its size over the last few years, increasing from two Brigades of 6,000 personnel each, to six Brigades, plus new SOF and aviation units. In short, the PLA’s primary focus will remain maintaining its deterrence and defensive posture in China’s own territory and in the near seas, while gradually expanding its expeditionary capability, all done in concert with national economic development.

Reforms are always a learning process. The PLAGF is certainly moving in the direction it wants to go, but the more it tries to implement some of these initiatives, the more it discovers that these things are harder to do in real-life than it is to write about them in books. In fact, the PLAGF in particular has already begun to reform some of its earlier reforms. One good example is standardising the structure of the Group Army (GA), the Corps-level organisation. Three years ago, GAs were standardised with six Combined-Arms Brigades and six supporting Brigades, one each artillery, air-defence, SOF, army aviation (helicopter), engineer and CBRN defence, and a Service Support Brigade. A recent change the PLA made has been to break up the engineer and CBRN Defence Brigade into two separate Brigades: an Engineer Brigade and a CBRN Defence Brigade. This change is not universal yet,—at least one GA has retained the old structure. This series of rapid changes illustrates that the PLA will decide on something, experiment and train with it, and discover what does and does not work. It then must go back and revise based on the lessons learned. Many of these new adjustments are not announced officially. When the 2020 “deadline” rolls around that the PLA will announce successful completion of reforms, but experimentation and modification will continue. Every time a PLAGF unit goes on a field exercise, new equipment, unit structure, tactics, and doctrine are tested. The results of these tests get sent up the chain of command, and then drives change throughout the institution. Running up to the 2035 “deadline”, one can anticipate many more significant changes in the PLA, but fewer public announcements. Regarding that 2035 date, it is very likely that the complete overhaul of the PLA’s equipment—begun under Deng Xiaoping back in the early 1980s—will finally be complete. All of the early Cold-War era material will finally be gone, replaced by mostly China-designed equipment dating from the 1990s or 2000s. For example, about three years ago more than half of the MBT force of the PLAGF was composed of Type-59 and Type-69 MBTs, a USSR-derived design dating from the 1950s. Today, newer Type-96 and Type-99 MBTs, designed in the 1990s, slightly outnumber the Type-59s. It took some 20 years to move to a majority modern MBT-types, so it is reasonable to think that it may take another decade at least to finally purge all of the legacy MBTs from the inventory. Ironically enough, by that time, some of the early Type-96 and 99 MBTs may themselves be obsolete and ready for replacement. The same process is underway for every category of equipment—modernised APCs, IFVs, artillery, helicopters, and so on—with many of the same challenges and similar timelines. One of the huge upgrades seen to PLAGF capability in this time period is a series of new systems significantly increasing the range at which ground commanders can strike.

Legacy 122mm and 152mm artillery pieces are being rapidly replaced by modernised, longer-range 155mm systems, older 106mm and 122mm MBRLs are being augmented by highly capable 300mm and 370mm MBRLs, and attack helicopters and UAVs have significantly increased the PLAGF’s operating radii. While longer range is a valuable, it has several second- and third- order effects that must be considered. Intelligence, surveillance and targetting must now extend to the maximum range of their capabilities to support the new systems; coordination and communications with other units and with the joint force are now necessary to deconflict airspace, and so on. All of these supporting efforts are ongoing, but it all results in increasingly complex operations that the PLA will have learn on the training field.

Prior to 1998, PLAGF squad leaders were simply 3rd or 4th year conscripts; NCO leaders weren’t a part of the PLAGF’s personnel system. That year, however, the PLA established its first cohort of professional NCOs, along with the educational and training support necessary to develop them into military leaders and technicians. The first cohort was chosen from the conscript pool and given additional training. Some jobs that previously were assigned to officers were handed off to NCOs, including many billets that we traditionally associate with NCOs, such as supply sergeants. Professional NCOs became squad leaders. Developing an NCO corps was a huge effort, requiring a number of major reforms and significant resources. The relationship between officers and NCOs had to be established; the duties and responsibilities of NCOs had to be built from scratch; the ranks of NCOs had to be filled by competent soldiers. One of the most significant changes undertaken was the training and education of NCOs. Today, several stand-alone NCO schools exist in which NCO cadets may attend two-or three-year degree programmes. Many PLA officer academies have subordinate NCO departments, where NCOs receive both academic instruction and military leadership training. Some NCO positions require significant functional, job-focussed technical training as well, which may be done formally or at the NCO’s unit. Figuring out the relationship between NCOs and officers has been a challenge. Higher level NCO leadership positions, such as Company First Sergeants or Sergeants Major, have been established only in the last few years. Many of the leadership duties that we typically associate with senior NCOs, such as supervising soldier welfare, morale, and discipline, were traditionally handled by the unit’s Political Officer. The PLA recently added a 7th NCO rank in order to allow more senior NCOs to finish their careers and retire from the military. In 2018, the first cohort of PLAGF NCOs hit the 20-year mark, which means we are only now seeing the first NCOs who have gone through the new system from the beginning to the end of their careers. One of the major benefits from the development of the NCO corps is that NCOs now can work in staff positions at Battalion and higher-level HQs. The newer PLAGF unit structures and approach to operations and planning requires far more staff than previously—a Battalion Staff used to consist only of a commander, political officer, and deputy commander, for example, which was sufficient when all they had to do was pass higher echelon orders down to their Company commanders. Now, Combined-Arms Battalions are tasked to conduct independent operations, requiring a full range of staff work at that level. The PLAGF discovered that staff NCOs can both provide assistance to officers and fill key staff roles. A significant amount of PLAGF experimentation over the last few years focussed on how the future Battalion Staff should be structured—getting the right mix of officers, NCOs, and trained specialists, in the right jobs, with the right relationships. At this time, it appears that the PLAGF has landed on a formal structure employing a Chief-of-Staff, a unit “Master Sergeant,” and four principal staff officers or NCOs. Of note, while this Staff is now probably capable of fighting independently for short periods of time, it does not look to be large enough to be capable of conducting both current operations and planning on a 24-hour, high intensity cycle over an extended period of time.

It is clear that the PLAGF has studied the US military carefully and has adopted some of the latter’s best practices in its own reform efforts, but the PLAGF is not attempting to become “just like the US Army” because of China’s social, political, economic, and geographic circumstances. The PLAGF has also studied Russian and European militaries; how they have performed both in hot wars and peacekeeping operations. The PLAGF has tried to learn from each country that it has studed and has come up with a unique solution. There are many reasons for this—China’s size, geographic position and terrain diversity—and the political system—are all important factors in the PLAGF’s strategy and policy choices. So, though it may mirror what other countries do in some ways, there are a number of important differences in the PLAGF’s approach to foreign and military policy.

PLAGF’s Organisational Composition Today

The Brigade-isation of the world’s armies dovetailed nicely with the PLAGF’s ongoing drawdown in size and desire to upgrade the training and equipment of its forces. Three different primary formation-types were established: the light (motorised) CA-BDE, which comprised truck-mobile or armoured personnel carrier-mounted infantry; the medium (mechanised) CA-BDE, built around the infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) and IFV-mounted infantry; and the heavy (armoured) CA-BDE, built around the main battle tank (MBT). Initially, CA-BDEs were built with “pure” Battalions, meaning that the Manoeuvre Battalions of each were homogenous—only infantry, mechanised infantry, or armour. After a period of experimentation and revision, the traditional homogenous Battalion was replaced with the combined arms battalion—the CAB. Major changes occurred at echelons above the CA-BDE as well. First, the Corps as it had existed throughout the history of the PLAGF was done away with, replaced by a new formation called the Group Army (GA). The GA was not a Field Army in the traditional sense, but rather, was a Corps-sized formation that mixed six CA-BDEs with six supporting Brigades: artillery, air-defence, rotary-winged aviation, SOF, engineer and CBRN defence, and service support. The GA was built specifically to support the new PLAGF’s concept of systems warfare: elements of the GA are used to build the various specialised combat groups that comprise an overall operational system—the task-organised unit that conducts operations. The Division echelon was virtually done away with: only a handful of Division structures remain extant, and it is unclear how these legacy organisations integrate within the GA/CA-BDE structure.

The operational system is the complete set of capabilities assembled to conduct a particular mission. At the GA-level, an operational system can be thought of as similar to a Joint Task Force (JTF). On a smaller scale, operational systems are assembled to conduct specific tactical missions such as an assault, defence of a key position, or wide-area security. Combat Groups are sub-units of the operational system, and are built to perform specified tasks in support of the operational system’s mission. Combat Groups are typically named for their task: command group, assault group, firepower group, and so on. These names are not standardised, and different variations appear throughout different PLAGF publications. While the CA-BDE can be thought of as the tactical-level force provider for the various Combat Groups, the CAB is meant to be employed either in its organic form, or augmented by attached capabilities. The PLAGF describes the CAB as the lowest echelon capable of independent operations, and for many tactical-level Combat Groups, a CAB serves as the group’s manpower backbone and bulk of its combat power. The PLAA describes the differences between motorised and mechanised infantry in how supporting vehicles are employed: motorised units are only transported by their assigned vehicles, while mechanised forces employ their vehicles as combat platforms that support the infantry. The PLAGF employs a variety of APCs and IFVs that feature a broad range of firepower and protection. Some are tracked, some are wheeled, and there is considerable overlap. As such, one must look at how the unit intends to fight, rather than its composition and equipment, when assessing a unit as motorised versus mechanised. Airborne, Mountain, and Amphibious CA-BDEs are described as light. The three basic types of CA-BDE are configured as follows:

Light Combined-Arms Brigade

4 Motorised Combined-Arms Battalions

1 Reconnaissance Battalion

1 Artillery Battalion

1 Air-Defence Battalion

1 Headquarters Unit

1 Operational Support Battalion

1 Service Support Battalion

Medium Combined-Arms Brigade

4 Mechanised Combined-Arms Battalions

1 Reconnaissance Battalion

1 Artillery Battalion

1 Air-Defence Battalion

1 Headquarters Unit

1 Operational Support Battalion

1 Service Support Battalion

Heavy Combined-Arms Brigade

4 Armoured Combined-Arms Battalions

1 Reconnaissance Battalion

1 Artillery Battalion

1 Air-Defence Battalion

1 Headquarters Unit

1 Operational Support Battalion

1 Service Support Battalion

The CAB takes the basic combined-arms approach used to build the CAB and applies it to the Battalion echelon. CABs only combine different manoeuvre elements along with organic short-range fires elements (assault guns and mortars), with the provision that other headquarters can attach elements from other Brigade organisations as required. Each CAB also houses an organic short-range air-defence capability in the form of manportable air-defence systems (MANPADS). Of note, the CAB has only limited staff, which may affect its ability to function as the PLAGF intends—as an independent unit. CAB structures are as follows:

Light Combined-Arms Battalion

3 Motorised Infantry Companies (10 light wheeled vehicles or APCs per Company)

1 Firepower Company (6–9 rapid-fire 81mm mortars, MANPADS, crew-served weapons)

1 Headquarters Unit

1 Service Support Company

Medium Combined-Arms Battalion

3 Mechanised Infantry Companies (10 wheeled or tracked IFVs per Company)

1 Assault Gun Company (14 wheeled 105mm assault guns)

1 Firepower Company (6–9 rapid-fire 120mm self-propelled mortars, MANPADS, crew-served weapons)

1 Headquarters Unit

1 Service Support Company

Heavy Combined-Arms Battalion

2 MBT Companies (10–14 MBTs per Company)

2 Mechanised Infantry Companies (10 IFVs per Company)

1 Firepower Company (9 rapid-fire 120mm self-propelled mortars, MANPADS, crew-served weapons)

1 Headquarters Unit

1 Service Support Company

Undertaking Offensive Land Campaigns

123 comments:

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

By looking at the reformation taken by Chinese government, I feel that the defense university must have played a key role after carrying out a successful research work.

Now question arises where do the Indian counterpart stands? I don't think that without a clear vision, IA will come face to face to PLAGF. Mere getting killed and attending martyrdom won't work. Being soldier you are going to kill the enemy not get killed. But I think here we think emotionally and think the opposite. Please share your views. I'm completely shattered.

Anonymous said...

Woah Woah Woah !!! excellent thread sir. Thank you. Let GoI digest this.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD; The 3rd paragraph from top explains the entire process. The IA has begun its re-orientation & re-balancing in a reactive manner.

To DASHU: VMT. A much more exhaustive version of this was shared with the concerned Indian authorities late last year.

Nudairajan said...

No matter what yo share and what is paramount, the divinely inspired Netas will stick to the proven strategy- chalta hai, aaj bhi chalega. May be sat5urating the border with cow pee and dung might provide a better protection solution! How about a puja path scaring the Chinese demons off? Anything and everything except necessary thing!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To NUDAIRAJAN: Perhaps this can become a cloak of invisibility:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BK6UWf3CfVg

Meanwhile, while the ceasefire along the LoC is holding, there is no ceasefire along the WB, as evidenced by the latest incident of a drone from Pakistan being shot down over Samba:

https://twitter.com/bsf_jammu/status/1393153265039073286

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Can you please come clear on the issue? I'm slow learner; hence not able to comprehend anything.

1. My question is whether China will decimate India in few days in case of high intensity war?

2. To my astonish you once criticised me for describing Chinese army as 7 feet tall. But if you look at the force modernization, certainly China will win against India in 2 weeks. Hence, 2025 will prove that Chinese are 7 feet tall and they will take back Ladakh from us without any reason.

3. Further Phunchok Stobdan always said that China is not our enemy. What a wrong logic it is!!!! Someone is openly threatening me and stealing my property and I will tell that he is not my enemy. I can recall once George Fernandes once described China as India's prime enemy. I need your views.

BTW I am novice and provoked easily. I am completely disheartened and broken.

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada very very much informative
Majja aa gaya padh ke
Kindly answer the following questions

1. What is the availability rate or percentage of su30 mki, does it got improved after we signed the spare parts agreement with ruskies
2. Abhijit Iyer Mitra Keeps on xomplaining at every platform that we have worst platform as su 30 mki and the RWR, Radar, And Elta Poda Does not talk to each other and in most of cases the Elta jammer ends up jamming the Bars Radar. He further claims that this is the reason why we did not use it during balakoat
3. What aircrafts are wired for Nuclear delivery in India, are rafales going to take up the role
4. Some videos and discussions claims that Tejas is a useless platform as being a shorter aircraft it does not have space for improvements. How do u rate tejas with what chinese have

Newcomer said...

How can multy storage buildings are brought down in sitting state with couple of bombs..
What do IDF use..!
Is this some special ammo..?

mg6357 said...

Hi Prasunji,

This article was a great insight into PLA. Also, I watched few YouTube Videos to know more on the same topic.

I have following queries:

1. As I understood, PLA is copying best Army Structures from all over Globe and modifying as per their suitability.

Are we undertaking any of these kinds of reforms ?


2. PLA seems to be undertaking a modular approach to their structure. How will our Army face the Chinese Combined-Arms Battalions in North India as well as North-East India ?


3. Also, PLA Navy has 6 Amphibious Assault Battalions along with 6 Marine Battalions if I am correct.

Are we developing any of these kinds of structure in our Defence forces ?

4. Similar to above article regarding PLA Army, could you post an article of PLAAF and PLAN ?

Thanks & Regards,
MG6357

Santosh said...

Please answer question of the endgoc society
I would like to further add Abhijith Iyer related question
He criticize Tejas mk1A
My question is how good is Tejasmk1A with EL/M 2052 and 8222WB jammer against J10C and 17 block3?
How good is Tejas mk1A armed with Python 5 and aster BVR against JF17 black 3 and j10C?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD: 1) The answer to that was given 2 threads ago where it was clearly stated that for China it is self-defence in the west & offensive orientation to the east & southeast. That’s why China has deployed only 2 PLAGF Divisions in Aksai Chin & 3 Combined-Arms brigades opposite Northeast India. 2) The answer flows from the 1st answer, i.e. you are ASSUMING that the entire PLAGF will be employed against India, when in reality that will never be the case. 3) Don’t go by what others say, instead you yourself have to make your own assessment based on available FACTOIDS, and not based on opinions of others. You can go through some of the factoids in these weblinks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEnHT4lfTUA&t=116s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYeJf2rfi1I&t=7s

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: 1) The availability is in excess of 80% following the inking of a performance-based logistics agreement struck between HAL & the IAF 4 years ago. 2) That nitwit is neither a licensed aeronautical engineer nor an avionics engineer & hence he will be clueless about the laws of physics. Consequently, all his soundbytes WRT avionics & EW are utter THRASH & RUBBISH. I had already explained the intricacies of EW in this thread:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/12/key-takeaways-from-iaf-paf-february-27.html

3) EMP-hardening of airborne platforms is reqd ONLY WHEN the nuclear explosion that takes place is visible to the launch-aircraft. EMP propagation can be negated by the Earth’s curvature. Furthermore, no one nowadays launched nuclear weapons as gravity-bombs. Instead, nuclear warheads are contained within standoff air-launched missiles & hence the launch-aircraft stays hundreds of kilometres away from the blast area & consequently such aircraft don’t require any EMP hardening. 4) Again, this comes from NITWITS. Since technology is advancing by the day, it therefore becomes logical that today’s existing hardware will continue getting miniaturised & consequently new-generation hardware due for installation on existing airborne platforms will consume far less internal volume in future & hence platforms like Tejas & Rafale will be upgradable for the next 40 years. Both aircraft-types follow the modular design architecture in which existing avionics LRUs will be replaceable with smaller LRUs in their existing locations, thereby leaving untouched the existing bulkhead designs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MG6357: VMT. 1) Yes, but the IA’s process of reforms began only in 2017, whereas those of the PLAGF began in the late 1990s. 2) By creating terrain-specific Integrated Battle Groups. 3) The PLAGF’s amphibious assault formations are Taiwan-specific while those of the PLAN Marines are not configured for offensive amphibious assault, but rather as rapid intervention forces designed for rescuing overseas Chinese nationals from hotspots in areas like the African continent. 4) Had already uploaded a thread on PLAN’s offensive orientations here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/07/plagfs-gameplan-in-east-china-sea.html

To SANTOSH: That nitwit is neither a licensed aeronautical engineer nor an avionics engineer & hence he will be clueless about the laws of physics that govern the usage of avionics. Consequently, all his soundbytes WRT avionics & EW are utter THRASH & RUBBISH. I had already explained the intricacies of EW & related NCTR mode of operations in this thread:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/12/key-takeaways-from-iaf-paf-february-27.html

Since technology is advancing by the day, it therefore becomes logical that today’s existing hardware will continue getting miniaturised & consequently new-generation hardware due for installation on existing airborne platforms will consume far less internal volume in future & hence platforms like Tejas & Rafale & Su-30MKI will be upgradable for the next 40 years. Both aircraft-types follow the modular design architecture in which existing avionics LRUs will be replaceable with smaller LRUs in their existing locations, thereby leaving untouched the existing bulkhead designs.

To NEWCOMER: This is what is being used: GBU-39 SDB.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1Vp0JDWYAEROnv?format=jpg&name=medium

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1Vp1q_XoAQsgFE?format=jpg&name=medium

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

300mm PHL-03 MBRL Service-Induction Ceremony in Lhasa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R46VeMHlUw

PCL-161 MGS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roXSp4JBrNw&t=76s

The PLAGF now has 3 types of MGS: PCL-161 122mm MGS, PCL-171 122mm MGS & PCL-181 155mm MGS. All these are mounted on high-mobility armoured vehicles for both immediate close fire-support & indirect fire-assaults. Also, NLOS-SS-BSMs like Red Arrow-10B with 10km-range are entering service. In addition, the 370mm PCL-191 PHL-16 MBRL will be introduced in Aksai Chin later this June. All this indicates that during hostilities the PLAGF will not be counting on firepower-support from airpower (delivered by either attack helicopter or fixed-wing combat aircraft) since the PLAAF still lacks the kind of combat aircraft capable of undertaking low-level flight sorties & hence will not be able to mount effective tactical interdiction sorties, leave alone offensive barrier-CAPs. Conversely, the PLAGF's deployed ground formations will remain highly vulnerable to air-strikes mounted by air forces like the IAF & hence the heavy emphasis being placed on adding extra armour protection to all its existing ground-based weapon systems.

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

As you told PLAGF ground formation will be highly vulnerable to IAF air strikes. But again they have S-400. How will our crafts enter their airspace? Does IAF have any paln to counter it?

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Do'nt the PHL-16 and PHL-03 give the PLA a decisive edge in any conflict they might choose to initiate ?

2) Unless IA deploys the prahar in numbers in a conventional role, what counter does IA have for the PHL-16 ?

Satyaki

Unknown said...

If the trailing happens to be true, it explains to a reasonable extent why states are attempting to push blame for covid mismanagement on the centre

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/from-september-to-april-pm-in-6-meets-with-cms-warned-them-of-2nd-wave-bjp/articleshow/82622310.cms

What this probably means is that if you succeed in containing the first wave, peoples expectations lie on you again controlling the second wave, which wily indian politicians use to deflect public attention from their deriliction of duty and using different media houses to mock and deflect attention from their acts of omissions. While there are areas for the central government to improve, but somehow surprised that a large segment of media never targeted the states for.not doing their constitutional duty towards its citizens. What a shit phenomenon in India. This is probably how inequitious narratives get built.

Regards

Kunal

Ranveer said...

Mr. Prasun
The Israel Palestine conflict is raging but I want to know from you
1) Why are many Indians making us a laughing stock by shouting India stands with Israel and don't understand it is all about realpolitik?

2)How did this love for Israel came in Indian citizens is it because of something huge which Israel gave to India and I don't remember?

3)The casualty numbers show who is being brutalized because numbers don't lie it is the Palestinian Citizens they are David and Israel is Goliath I suppose?

Thank you

Ranveer

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. India suffered a major humiliatiom today when the Israeli PM thanked everyone but skipped India and most importantly all those andhbhakti who were shouting their lungs out were in saying they support Israeli extermination /sanitization of Palestinians were also in for major shock when the Israeli citizen themselves abused them to the level of shutting them down. sample these
https://twitter.com/netanyahu/status/1393691936192712707
https://twitter.com/BapakKUgengster/status/1393843060157534210

when will andhbhaktas learn is anybodyas guess

2. there seems to be overdose of China from your side we may suffer from china reading virus :-)

3. your views on this
https://birender-dhanoa.medium.com/preparing-operational-leaders-for-conflict-in-the-21st-century-a449bef7db70

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Pratap said...

Prasun sir, could the latest Israel Palestine clashes affect Israel's reapproachment with Arab States? What is the reason behind Biden administration's less than friendly approach towards Israel? There are massive protests going on against Israel in the West led by Muslims and by woke leftists who are completely ignorant about the threat of radical Islam. For the first time it appears that Israel is losing the narrative war even though it is fighting in self defence. This doesn't look good because it could inspire similar jihadist uprising in Kashmir. Will it just die down in coming days, or are we going to see a new wave of Islamic extremism in the middle East?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD: Had already answered that several times before since 2016, including here:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/09/sead-specific-saaw-cleared-for-bulk.html#:~:text=The%20SAAW%20is%20a%20joint,%2Denergy%20weapon%20(DEW).

To SATYAKI: 1) Not quite, since they will remain vulnerable to counter-attack by counter-fire-assaults. 2) Adequate stocks of SS-150 Prithvi SS-BSMs are available for usage.

To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: The Centre is bearing the brunt due to only 1 reason: inability to revisit the 1897 Epidemic Act. Had the PM kept his promise made back in 2014 to rid India of all such archaic laws/regulations, matters would have been different. The same goes for the 1968 vintage Civil Defence Act, which can be read here:
https://www.indiacode.nic.in/handle/123456789/1524?view_type=browse&sam_handle=123456789/1362

On the whole, EVERYONE is to be blamed. The States in particular have had the past 5 decades to establish primary health-care centres & ensure their smooth functioning with adequate staffing. But as we can all now see, that hasn’t happened. Consequently, generations of total neglect are now taking their toll. The GoI & central entities like ECI screwed up on 2 fronts: the former did not see this coming & consequently the reqd quantum of stockpiling of vaccines was terribly underestimated, while centralised PM Cares-type funding mechanisms were instituted, thereby denying the states any say in their constitution & workings. And the latter was complicit in not stubbornly enforcing the reqd safety norms/protocols & stretching electioneering schedules to absurd lengths. This tantamounts to elementary criminal negligence & will be the subject of several lawsuits being filed in future.

To RANVEER: 1) Undoubtedly it was HAMAS that raised the stakes & threatened military action by giving absurd excuses & hence it deserves what it is getting. 2) There was never any need for the average Indian citizen to go over-the-top in any direction, since India has her own share of woes & worries.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 2) I sincerely hope so, since the drought prevailing right up to the late 1990s had resulted in most Indians remaining on Pakistan & ignoring all that was transpiring along the LAC, including the creation of the abstraction known as the LAC. 3) Actions always speak louder than words, i.e. like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIAE2PhNcgM

While the IDF successfully used media disinformation for giving the impression of an impending ground offensive against Gaza, the real intention of this disinformation campaign was to convince HAMAS about it so that HAMAS combatants would flock inside their underground tunnel networks for shelter. Once this happened, the IDF-AF last Thursday launched a concentrated air campaign involving 160 air sorties that dropped JDAMs over the entire underground tunnel network, thereby severely decapitating HAMAS. This is one of those classic stratagems that will be studied by air warriors for years to come.

On the other hand, India’s Union MHA is hell-bent upon inflicting upon itself yet another self-inflicted wound through this:

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/central-security-for-bjp-mlas-in-bengal-is-bad-politics-7315445/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Gory details on the state apathy in UP & perhaps even Bihar:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzvmC65hzBw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeeJXjv5nsI&t=11s

Navneet Kalra Arrested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Khk5l2wr76U

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,

-How is JCO/NCO training and capabilities does indian armed forces have?

-How much freedom the Chinese JCO/NCO have compared to before in carrying out their duties and it is real reform or an eyewash?

-Please give information on indian army combined arms formations and doctrines.

Thanks & Regards

Hardik Thanki

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Prasun da,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUlzpkGHy0U.

I think this use less attachment to comment on Israel , Palestian conflict is not going to help Indian populace any way
1. We should choose what. we want in this nation since all said and done weather people like or not
we have no choice of re electing the Congress with man-beta combination which is going take the populace for another ride
2. How to get the amendments done is the new challenge as present Gov needs to put more administrators for the present rather than coming from 1990's or 2000's mindset
3. This over all idea that I have done better than previous gov should end , rather idea should. be how well I have compared what all could have been done !! ... since yes I do agree that the states were more to be blamed for Oxygen crisis but that does not stop central gov to review the status of preparation for the second wave and that should be put out .. UP. and Bihar have a very poor social indicators and this has become the character which would take time to change
4. WB would now face the earth of second wave and Hyderabad would also now face the Wrath

mg6357 said...

Hi Prasunji,

Thank you for your previous replies.

1. What will happen to Forces like BSF (which comes under Home Ministry) with the formation of Integrated Battle Groups of our Armed forces into possibly 5 commands ?

2. With reference to above question, what will happen with Rashtriya Rifles as well ?

3. Do you foresee Indian Military getting divided into Heavy, Medium & Light Battalions similar to PLA after we convert to 5 theatre commands structure ?

4. After our Armed forces structural reforms, will there be any standardization or changes in the Ranking structure of Army, Air Force & Navy ?

5. Are we considering our Coast Guard in these reforms & what will be their role after reforms ?

Thanks & Regards,
MG6357

AMIT BISWAS said...

Takla should be forced to resign from MoHA and KIRAN BEDI should be posted there

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Another instance of Indo - US Collaboration of high tech research:

https://www.wionews.com/science/indian-us-researchers-develop-algorithms-to-get-clearer-images-from-futuristic-lensless-cameras-385618

Unknown said...

West Bengal is a unique state. If news reports are to be believed, and i reasonably think they are, the lack of ability of the state to protect its own citizens is playing behind this. If post poll west bengal violence had not happened, if the chief secretary of bengal responded to home ministry's letter seeking report to this violence, i dont see situation coming to this end of.centre.sending crpf. West Bengal.is being run by a despotic leader who rushes to CBI office to.protest arrest of her ministers. What does.this show a) she backs her party loyalists and b) wont hesitate to threaten and do.dadagiri if her ways are not followed. I for.one.am.sure.that.this.constitutionally given.mandate and conduct is.something nobody gives a.shit in bengal. This post.poll.violence will take.huge.dent on investor sentiments in west bengal.and expect more industrial exodus, if at all any is left. As for Mr Ribiero, would have done well.if he had.also.critiqued the conduct of present chief minister regarding law and order. If bengal comes.under presidents.rule, it is its.own.undoing.

Regards

Kunal

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

This how perfect recipes for DISASTER are created:

There are at least 15 committees, both scientific and bureaucratic, that are currently overseeing India’s Covid-19 strategy. Apart from the meetings and discussions held by these panels, at least 67 review meetings were held by the Prime Minister or his office between January 2020 and May 2021 to take stock of the situation. Of these, 48 meetings — between January 2020 and December 2020—were listed out by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs in an affidavit dated 23 April 2021 in the Supreme Court. In May, there have so far been six review meetings. There were 10 in April, and one each in March and January. The records of all the 66 meetings are available in the public domain. There may have been many more PMO meetings on Covid-19 whose records are not in the public domain. Here is a brief description of some of the committees.

National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation
The NTAGI is the highest technical body that evaluates data on new and upcoming vaccines or reviews data from the ones already rolled out, when that is needed. This is a standing committee that helps the Union Ministry of Health with technical guidance on immunisation. It predates Covid. The NTAGI now has a Covid working group that looks specifically at data on coronavirus vaccines. It is headed by Dr N.K. Arora, Director of INCLEN Trust, an international network of healthcare professionals. The committee is also supposed to analyse reported adverse events following immunisation (ARFI) and explore links with vaccines, or the lack of it.

National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for Covid-19
The National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for Covid-19 is co-chaired by NITI Aayog member (health) Dr V.K. Paul and Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan. NEGVAC, which has members both from the scientific community and the civil service, acts as the final vetting authority on decisions related to the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccination programme, but its word is by no means the last. For example, when vaccinations opened up for older age groups, NEGVAC had wanted the cut-off to be 50 years but the Government of India decided to start with the 60+ age group from 1 March.

Task Force Headed by Principal Scientific Adviser
In April 2020, the central government constituted a task force headed by Principal Scientific Adviser Prof. K. VijayRaghavan to encourage R&D for vaccine manufacture. This committee, too, is co-chaired by Dr V.K. Paul. “The task force has made the DBT (Department of Biotechnology) a central coordinating authority for vaccine development and their main work will be to identify a pathway for vaccine development,” the Union Health Ministry said in a statement in April 2020. “For this work, a dynamic list of national and international organisations working for vaccine development is to be made, their progress is to be monitored and facilitation at government level is to be done by them.”

ICMR Covid-19 Task Force
This is a group of experts—from within and outside the government—who are supposed to give guidance to the government on the Covid-19 pandemic and how to manage it. It is co-chaired by Dr Paul and Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Director General Dr Balram Bhargava. “The NTF comprises 21 members, including technical/domain experts from the government and outside the government. Predominant expertise in the task force is from public health and/or epidemiology. Given the complexity and implications of the Covid-19 pandemic, the group has experts from medicine, virology, pharmacology and programme implementation domains, as well,” the health ministry said in a statement in June 2020.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Empowered Groups
In April 2020, 11 empowered groups were formed to spearhead various aspects of Covid-19 management. In September last year, the number was pared down to six. It has since risen to seven. The groups have been constituted under the National Disaster Management Act 2005. Headed by Dr Paul and several other senior officials—including NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant, Guruprasad Mahapatra, Secretary, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade, and National Health Authority (NHA) CEO Dr R.S. Sharma — these groups look after various aspects of the pandemic right from medical infrastructure to vaccination and coordination with the private sector.

Group of Ministers
In February 2020, a group of ministers was constituted under Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan as a symbol of the “political commitment at the highest levels of the government, led by the Hon’ble Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi” for leading the “government’s response against novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19)”. “India is prepared through its various timely measures and sturdy systems of surveillance for novel coronavirus,” the health minister said at the time.

INSACOG
The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Consortium on Genomics (INSACOG) is a grouping of 10 national laboratories, and was established by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in December 2020. The 10 identified laboratories of INSACOG Consortium report their sequencing results to the Central Surveillance Unit (CSU) of National Centre for Diseases Control (NCDC), from where it is shared with the state surveillance units (SSUs) of IDSP by the CSU through email and meetings. INSACOG has a high-level Inter-Ministerial Steering Committee, which “provides guidance and oversight to the consortium specially for policy matters”, and it has “a Scientific Advisory Group for scientific and technical guidance”.

Experts in the field made a general observation—not about these panels—that more committees often mean more delays. They also noted that decision-making in the central government is centralised. “There is a saying, ‘Too many cooks spoil the broth’. You have to make the system functional, delegate authority,” said a former civil servant. “If all decisions come from the PMO, then, even if you have 35 committees, nothing will work. As a rule, more committees means more delays. But how they have worked or whether they have worked can only be analysed if one looks at the minutes of these meetings,” the retired civil servant added. Said a second expert, “There are empowered committees galore. Despite all these, decision-making is centralised.”

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HARDIK THANKI: The PLAGF is still experimenting with the JCO/NCO corps & the IA is way ahead of the PLAGF by decades. I have already presented my concepts WRT the IA’s re-structuring & re-balancing & hence will not want to reveal them at this stage. Meanwhile, do go through these videos of the PLAGF’s re-structured formations of the Xinjiang Military District:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTZSqT6Wz0I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHoEZmepM1w

To MG6357: 1) CAPFs are for border management whereas the IA is for border dominance. 2) RR remains an integral part of the IA. 3) The re-balancing will occur BEFORE the creation of theatre commands. 5) OCGS is like the CAPF & it won’t have any role to play in any armed conflict.

To AMIT BISWAS: LoLz! No ‘neta’ will ever appoint any IPS officer as a Minister. The only time a uniformed police person (a Corporal) ever became a Union MHA was Sushil Kumar Shinde of the INC from Maharashtra Police.

To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: LoLz! The folks of WB know only too well not to accept any ‘Delhi ka Chamchaa’ as the state’s ruler. The BJP is more than welcome to try all the dirty tricks it has in its bag just like it tried & failed against AAP in Delhi. Today the Centre is hell-bent upon ruling states with CMs who are absolute nitwits & who are remote-controlled from Delhi, whereas in opposition-ruled states & UTs the Centre wants to control matters through Governors & Lt Governors. But all this is miserably backfiring & with greater intensity by the day & a day will come in future when all those who had defected from the TMC to the BJP will be knocking at the TMC’s door for re-admittance. For, they are now realising that their acts of prostitution will never be pardoned by the subjects of WB. And only fools with 0 knowledge of constitutional law will day-dream about President’s Rule. In fact, judging by public sentiment, the chips will start falling with UP & the probability of a non-BJP govt at the Centre now looms large by 2024. And as I had stated several times before, WB’s economic future is intrinsically linked with regional prosperity that includes the economic prosperity of Bangladesh & India’s North East. Only a buffoon will expect WB to attract financial investments meant only for WB. After all, the history of any land is always dictated by its geography, not by any political entity. The best evidence of this comes from the PM's wish that he had once expressed in an election rally, when he said that if a village has a graveyard, then it also has the right to have its own crematorium. The Gods of Yore have indeed heard him & are now granting his wish all along the Yamuna & Ganges rivers. His 'Mann ki Baat' has truly been heard & been acted upon.

Talking about delusional entities, here is another one:

https://theprint.in/india/mask-less-in-bhopal-bjp-mp-pragya-thakur-says-cow-urine-prevented-her-from-getting-covid/660001/

So let's see if all those fucked-up retards of MP who voted for her can take her advice & start consuming cow's urine en masse.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

What do you thin about the possibility underlined here:

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1393811595319406593

The tweeter seems to thin that PLA might make an attempt to grab Kibithu

Kritavarma

KIDDO said...

Dear Prasun
Thanks for the excellent write-up. U have said in an earlier comment that PLAGF remains vulnerable to airpower in Ladakh or NEast and has a distinct disadvantage in terms of bringing its own Air assets into play in either front - hence the increase in tube and rocket artillery assets (both types & numbers).

Is it not natural then that IAF assets will be the PLA's 1st and foremost targets? In case of future hostilities does this not imply that they will begin by going after Indian Airbases close to the borders (maybe with their Rocket Forces).

If so then how well protected are our Airbases against such missile strikes. For example - Hashimara is very close to the Bhutan border and it would seem that Chinese rocket forces could easily target them from places like Doklam region which are within touching distance or use higher range rockets (300km-500km range) to target them from the Tibetan Plateau.

Similarly, bases like Leh, Srinagar & Awantipora, Gorakhpur, Tezpur, Chabua, Bagdogra and even Agra & Ambala would be targeted immediately correct?

What are India's options in case the Chinese do commence hostilities with an attack on IAF assets - like the Israelis did in 67?

Thanks

Unknown said...

Mamta Banerjee started her career with congress, dumped it and created the TMC..Many cadres of erstwhile left front also joined her..politicians jump political parties just like the TMC supremo who jumped to create her own party and got rid of the tata nana plant in Nandigram..so its like.pot.calling the kettle black..the game as i had mentioned earlier is to.coerce through violence all.opposition which is nothing but deriliction in constitutional duty..and so far these pipe dreams of regional integration for investment in west bengal is concerned they will remain a dream till a dharna lady who got rid of tata motors plant continues to rule..first do.something locally then think of regional integration..

And here below, a great habit of malaysians that i am sure you must be enjoying ;)

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/01/04/haram-to-consume-camel-urine-if-treatment-brings-more-harm/


Regards

Kunal



bhoutik said...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/may/15/cabinet-office-blocks-publication-of-lord-mountbattens-diaries

*what could be the reason for this?

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. answer you gave to Kunal abt 2024 will give heartache to andhbhakkt CHANKYA CHATTERJEE

2. You said Hamas raised the stake but who else but Israel raided Al aqsa mosque and forcibly evicting Palestwenian from Sheikh Jarrah area,

I know you will say nothing can be done w\so point but who brought it to this situation blanket support of USA and ineffective leadership of Fatah faction after Arafat who most Palestenian accuse of interested in only making money.,

so who else but Hamas is left to raise the issue and it is doing so the best it can, your views

3. I feel this TEBDF is waste of time of time Best to use Jaguar airframe take the Honeywell F128 engine and modify it for ship based maritime ops, I think it will be easy since Jaguar IMs are already used for shore based maritime ops, your views

4. IN says it wants 18 SSKs (as per me ultimately these will be 9 Scorpene & 9 Super Scorpene once Sindhughosh and Shishumar SSKs retire) beside the 6 SSNs not counting 6 SSGN/SSBN, but why go for 18 SSKs when 12 nuke subs are here, your view?

thanks
Joydepp Ghosh



Unknown said...

While joydeep you see modi bhakts, i see mamta bhakts, gandhi bhakts, secularism bhakts, yogi bhakts, marxist bhakts, cow urine bhakts, camel urine bhakts and so many other types of bhakts..which bhakt you are?????

Regards

Kunal

AMIT BISWAS said...

Some hard hitting facts against the ruling emperor
https://youtu.be/bycqjnf2hGI

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KIDDO: If that happens, then the IA’s & IAF’s foremost targets will be the long-range artillery assets deployed along the PLAGF’s frontline & depth areas, thereby denying the PLAGF the element of surprise. That’s why mirror-deployments are in place. Throughout the Chumbi Valley, including its southernmost part—Doklam—the IA sits atop all the dominating heights throughout northeast Sikkim & even the slightest pre-emptive move by the PLAGF from there will lead to the total destruction of the PLAGF throughout the Chumbi valley.

To KRITAVARMA: LoLz! Only someone who has not read anything about the opposing tactics employed in 1962 will make such a MORONIC statement. Back then it was fairly easy for the PLAGF to enter NEFA through 3 distinct land approaches because the IA was deployed far below at the bottom of the river-valleys, while the PLAGF formations simply found their way in by navigating through mountain spurs & dominating the mountain-tops, due to which the PLAGF could direct accurate mortar-fire. The situation today is exactly the opposite, with the IA holding all the dominating heights in Arunachal Pradesh & Sikkim & even in certain portions of Ladakh, as explained here:

The first major clash in Eastern Ladakh between IA & PLA-BDR troops took place on the noon of May 18, 2020. This time there was a lot of stone-pelting & use of sticks and rods. The Indians were adequately numbered initially to inflict a strong resistance. Soon six PLA-BDR vehicles came & dropped off soldiers. These vehicles kept going back & coming with more soldiers. By the evening of May 18, the PLA-BDR had deployed about 800 soldiers at the Finger-4 area at Panggong Tso. Indian deployment of additional troops could not match the PLA-BDR’s speed there because the Indians had to trek a narrow path from Finger-3 to reach Finger-4. The PLA-BDR had brought in earth-movers & set up various posts. In the following days, the PLA-BDR also set up several tents & posts on the heights of Finger-4.

After the move in the northern banks of Panggong Tso, the PLA-BDR built up in other areas, including Hot Springs and Gogra. The scale at which the PLA-BDR moved indicated that there was planning that went into this & cannot be seen as a reactionary move to what happened in Panggong Tso. The IA too began mirror deployments. One thing led to the other and eventually to actual standoffs in many locations. While India was initially caught off guard by China’s aggression, IA troops surprised the PLA too with counter-action in Panggong Tso’s southern & northern banks. When you look back, one realises that the Galwan River-Valley clash & the Indian action of occupying the southern bank’s dominating heights & sending up a team against the PLA at the northern banks’ dominating heights were turning points. Galwan showed to China that a cost will have to be paid if it continued with its aggression. Yes, 20 Indians lost their lives, most of them because of hypothermia, but China suffered fatal casualties as well. The operations on the southern & northern banks of August 29 night showed that the IA could also surprise the PLA & can pull off what can be called a quid pro quo (QPQ). China was uneasy with India’s counter-move & was thus forced to spend the harsh winters in the open. The PLA agreed to pull back from the northern banks only because of this. Otherwise it was ready to stay put & mark a new physical LAC.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: There’s a heaven-n-Earth difference between voluntarily renouncing one party & creating/joining another, and joining another party under duress & compulsion due to blackmailing resorted to by tools like the CBI, ED etc etc. The TATA Nano plant’s fate was decided long ago & was destined to become a white elephant due to the Nano’s failure to make any meaningful dent into India’s competitive automobiles sector. Consequently, no high hopes can be attached to this case. As for regional economic integration, it is already taking place & increasing by the day & you may be well-advised to ask the CMs of Tripura & other northeastern states whether or not they are pipe-dreams. Lastly, I have no idea why you are giving examples out of Malaysia & what makes you think that I relish or enjoy them. Be it about camels, rhinos or Pandas, I couldn’t care less because I am neither a citizen of Malaysia nor a resident of Malaysia. Your assumptions are therefore truly bizarre.

To BHOUTIK: Because it will likely reveal the real reasons behind the UK’s hasty departure back in August 1947, the irrational hurry displayed when drawing up the Radcliff Line, and as a consequence of these two, how the ‘Transfer of Power’ arrangement was drawn-up, instead of ‘Surrender of Power’ by the then colonial administration.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) How & why did you reach such an irrational conclusion? 2) Raiding of any place does not equate to unleashing of firepower against civilian populated areas, another irrational assessment that you ought to get rid of. 3) While TEDBF is practical from a conceptual & design standpoint, it is impractical from an industrial standpoint, especially if the IAF accords higher priority to the AMCA project. If the AMCA project is postponed by a decade or two, then TEDBF stands a chance of winning the reqd R & D funding. 4) Yes, that makes sense. One will have to stick to a single baseline design that offers more than 70% equipment commonality so that spares-support & operational turnarounds remain cost-effective.

To AMIT BISWAS: Here is another one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXcu1FM-HcI&t=35s

Taking last year’s & this year’s economic disruptions together, the combined GDP contraction over a 2-year period will touch the 16% mark & this in turn really calls for super-Herculean efforts aimed at preserving socio-economic stability in a country of 1.3 billion citizens. But the ongoing diatribe between the ruling political class & those in opposition does not offer any credible ray of hope, especially when both the bulk of the citizens & technologically illiterate officialdom are not predisposed to the present-day laws of the land. The only ray of hope are the isolated instances of scientifically sound practitioners, like this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPLo1RgIef0&t=336s

The bulk of the decision-makers, however, remain predisposed to this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_LtEpGFgeY

The only option now left on the table is to withdraw all other medications from such constituencies & subject these areas to the cow-urine treatments of all hues over a 2-week period to prove once & for all what really works. So let’s start with Bhopal from where all other medications must be withdrawn & then be re-distributed to those areas of the country that direly require them. That will once & for all decisively terminate all such debates about the efficacy of cow-derived end-products as medications

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Sir, how is the US Standoff Hypersonic weapon different from an IRBM?! While admittedly the INF 1987 no longer applies & this is a conventional weapon but the ranges are very much consistent with intermediate range weapons launched from land. Obviously, they are not ballistic missiles but with nearly 3000km ranges & probably high altitude cruise what is the propulsion - Rocket or Scramjet. I mean ofcourse after the rocket booster drops off. That the US Navy will use similar strike weapons is a no-brainer but then those weapons weren't covered by the now defunct INF Treaty earlier anyway. Kindly explain & will the Brahmos-2 or a deployed developed version of HSDTV be similar in propulsion, deliver & range. The US as usual was always ahead of everyone else without tomtoming it too much
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a36421213/army-hypersonic-weapon-1700-mile-range/?

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

is Kejriwal truly from IIT and from IRS. ?

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

Answer 1 - i hope i m wrong but chankys chatterjee will prove right that I know

Answer 2- irrational really,
1. irrational is to stand atop al aqsa with military boots on and think none will protest

2. irrational was eviction of Ottomans from Palestine in 1915 by British (by Indian soldiers) but instead asking jews to live in designated areas and permanently settling politically and economically weak semi-nomadic Palestinian tribes in areas close to crude oil supply lines so that they never get to protest if anything done to them

3 irrational is to expect India (250 yrs occupation) Armenia (genocide thank stars till last week), and Japan (atom bombs) to move on but allow Israel to beat its chest even after 702+ yrs

4. irrational is to let Israel, nation created for jews to treat Jews from Europe US as 1st class citizen and Jews settling from other parts be it Russia, Africa, India as 2nd class citizen (in Israel only a dialect of Hebrew (mostly used by European jews) is allowed to be spoken by jews as per law, any jew found speaking any other language russian/hindi/african is promptly arrested or beaten up, prove me wrong on that), and treat palestenians as 3rd class citizen (recent sample of evicting Palestenians from Sheikh Jarrah area where many jews have actually taken over Palestinian homes when they are still living there, just like Han Chinese have taken over Uighur homes) prove me wrong on these

Answer 3 developing a non stealth version of AMCA first as TEDBF could be the answer as you have said developing naval version first help in developing AF version

http://idrw.org/a-non-stealth-naval-amca-as-tedbf/

Answer 4commonality is ok but why develop 9 Super Scorpnene, for that cost at least 3 -4 more SSN could be built, so as per me 9 Scorpene (AIP added later), 6 SSBN/SSGN, and 9 SSN are enough, the number stands total 24 though includes SSBN/SSGn instead of current revised plan of 24 excluding the 6 SSBN/SSGN

your views on these

thanks
Joydeep Ghosh

Millard Keyes said...

You sure some people are not using the cow urine as a "sacred" thing to hide a secret fetish? In fact bestiality is well know and so are fetishes involving golden rain and golden shower. In fact Youporn/Pornhub is replete with things such as Indian desi uncle drinking his wife's pee etc etc

AMIT BISWAS said...

What this buffon AK is upto now 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️??

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/singapore-calls-in-indian-envoy-objects-to-delhi-cm-s-comment-on-new-covid-strain-101621403776803.html

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

You like sensible argument. So if you don't mind, I put my argument against your rebuttal to Kunal.

You mentioned about Tata Nano plant as white elephant. I agree partially. Although the plant was setup for manufacturing Nano, the same plant has started manufacturing other models. So it's a success and WB has lost it. As you have said in many instances, a plant can't be set up with a single motto to produce only one model. It has to diversify the manufacturing models. Then only the business will sustain. Now this what happening in Tata plant located in Gujarat.

I need your view please.

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,

-Can Surface to Surface Missiles be integrated into Kamrota Class Corvette?

-What are the components of the MAFI program of the Indian Air Force? Can you share the links to any articles regarding it?

Thanks & Regards

Hardik Thanki

Unknown said...

Whether white elephent or not is for tata motors to decide..products do fail and mistakes are made, but that does not mean rationale decisions are not taken.

Regards

Kunal

Unknown said...

Arvind Kejriwal is poster boy of rationality and common sense for a certain segment in India that has arrogated to itself all knowing wisdom and intellect..a class that on drop of a hat hits out at the present government for being intellectually handicapped..i for one get butterflies in my stomach seeing all these tamasha

Regards

Kunal

AMIT BISWAS said...

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/singapore-reserves-right-to-invoke-countrys-online-false-news-act-on-delhi-cms-remarks-says-envoy20210519203815


See this Buffon has drawn the best ever accolades for himself

Anonymous said...

dear sir,
1.seems like kejriwal is giving tough competition to amit shaw!
2. u said in the pralay that DRDO has achieved 70mm/s burn rate. how does this propellant compare to western nation propellant. r we behind by a cycle?
3. will this propellant increase the range of A5 by 10% as a rough estimate?

4. "While the reasons for RAW’s strategy of training Tiger terrorists is no longer a secret, its involvement of training Naxalites in LTTE camps is still shrouded in mystery."
did RAW really train naxalites??
article: https://www.dailynews.lk/2021/04/09/features/246296/story-double-games-ltte-raw-and-mossad

5. in previous post, u revealed that B'desh had bought israeli cyber equipment. cud u shortly explain the context and what it had to do with RAW?

thank you
Yogesh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: All you observations about past events are IRRATIONAL & DELUSIONAL to the core, simply because these are all EXCUSES for dwelling in the past & not facing up to present-day realities.

To AMIT BISWAS & KUNAL: He is no more a BUFFOON than those who had termed Bangladeshis as ‘Termites’ & who for the past 13 years have prevented Sri Lankan military officers from attending courses at the DSSC in Wellington & training courses at AFS Tambaram. Now that India’s MEA & EAM have both over-reacted in a partisan manner by exposing India’s internal political faultlines through tweets, the coast is now clear for Bangladesh to also openly & officially ask India if she stands by or condemns the Indian Union MHA Minister’s portrayal of Bangladeshis as ‘Termites’ & for Sri Lanka to openly demand the reasons why Sri Lankan military officers have been denied admission to the DSSC in Wellington. Will India’s MEA & EAM also openly condemn the Union Home Affairs Minister’s soundbytes & also openly condemn the DMK, AIADMK & PMK for interfering in India’s foreign policy issues? If not, then there will be several others in the days to come who will make similar statements. Hence, it is high time the EAM stopped being politically partisan & instead he should adopt a much more nuanced approach without revealing India’s domestic political faultlines in the open through Twitter.

And here is another example of another faultline being opened by the GoI that will have severe repercussions, especially WRT AgustaWestland AW-101 arbitration:

Why Cairn is Fighting Overseas Overseas Against India? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqvT3J_8a5c

To ASD: You can’t compare apples with oranges. The TATA automobile production plant in Gujarat is located in an area where an entire industrial eco-system is also located, which is what makes the business of automobile production financially viable. TATA’s business plan was entirely different for WB, i.e. it was meant to be only a final-assembly plant for the Nano & nothing else. One need not go any further & instead look at the demise of HIND Motors by 2017. You are thus assuming that TATA could easily have diversified & used its industrial facility to produce other products when in reality even within the TATA Sons Group there was severe boardroom opposition to making such an investment in WB. One therefore needs to dig deeper & examine the facts before jumping to ill-conceived conclusions.

To HARDIK THANKI: 1) Yes, if reqd. 2) Here is the weblink:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/04/contradicting-verdicts-dpp-mess.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: There are 2 types of hypersonic weapons, i.e. the HGV or hypersonic glide weapon, and the scramjet-powered hypersonic missile. The former are either air-launched or ground-launched & are attached to TBM-type missiles, such as China’s DF-ZF HGV, as shown here:

https://nationalinterest.org/sites/default/files/styles/desktop__1260_/public/main_images/slj7d1mzqzp31.jpg?itok=3TOMaOFz

The US also has such a weapon, as shown here:

https://www.airforcemag.com/app/uploads/2020/03/image0-680x1024.jpeg

Scramjet-powered hypersonic missiles fall into the intermediate-range category & prime examples of these are Russia’s 3M22 Zircon: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/BXNqM4s6ayk/maxresdefault.jpg

Japan too is developing such a weapon, as shown here:

https://www.overtdefense.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/HVGP.png

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eh8BuMVUMAEU4hw.jpg

India’s HSTDV does not possess the aerodynamic characteristics of a hypersonic weapon & consequently it can be expected that this project will be driven mainly by ISRO’s reqmts. But the BrahMos-2 that was unveilled earlier this decade bears a very strong resemblance to the 3M22 Zircon & will therefore be a weaponised system from the outset.

On another topic, here is an interesting observation on Beijing, Dhaka & QUAD:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AMgOz_Lo24

Kaustav said...

Thank you Prasunda, With regards to BD, ofcourse very little that India can do now given it's constrained circumstances due to the floundering economy, pandemic & precariously overstretched underpowered military. BD & SL will probably have to make their own way & find a balance. India, it seems, is unable to help Bhutan & Nepal either.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: There are ways out, PROVIDED the grey matter inside the skull is put to good use. For instance, the widespread usage of intra-nasal sprays to stop the pandemic's spread, especially in developing countries, as explained in these:

https://theprint.in/world/some-vaccines-are-helping-countries-exit-the-pandemic-faster-than-others/661632/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4lTPaYrEa4&t=70s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2I3lnKlSxQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZJT66P_MiY

On the other hand, clear-cut criminal negligence & TOTAL disregard for standard SOPs:

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/cyclone-tauktae-chief-engineer-barge-p305-says-14-life-rafts-had-holes-captain-ignored-warnings-7322166/

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

India's poverty levels, lack of initiative & bureaucratic inertia isnt going to allow either innovation or common sense to work here. As you pointed out the criminal negligence & ignorance of SOPs that results in this https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/barge-p3-5-cyclone-tauktae-49-still-missing-four-days-after-tauktae-sank-barge-off-mumbai-coast-2445380

while the steadily improving PRC does this -
https://www.space.com/china-mars-rover-zhurong-first-photos?

Ofcourse, its apples & oranges, but it's not our time & place. Hope the common sense helps us survive as a nation state. For now it's certainly your Refusing to Develop Country with Hum Nahi Sudhrenge folks like that Urine chugging Sadhvi, Gobar Fitness & the odd military officer who tries to work by the norms gets a routine transfer 3 months before retirement which if true indicates a deeper malaise
https://www.thecitizen.in//index.php/en/newsdetail/index/4/20363/sacking-the-general?s=08

Bharat jo Sone ki Chidiya thi usko khaa gye aur ab Daal Daal peh Ulloo baithe hai, Ulloo aise jinhe din ho yaa raat ho, khujane ke alawaa aur kuch dikhtaa nahin

Ofcourse a few blemished but bright spots like the Bharat Biotech vaccines or Dr.Reddy's /DRDO's 2-DG Glucose sachets which while reportedly useful arent exactly breakthroughs.

The query is simple - Are we victims of biological warfare made worse by our inability to follow protocol & manage public health well for a huge well known variety of both cultural, economic & systemic reasons?!
PRC has more or less proved it's point again

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasunda, what is basically bogging Bengal down is the unbridled flow of migrants from Jharkhand, Bihar and Rajasthan (mostly Marwaris). This is not a demand and supply related migration.

One Bihari enters Bengal, he will then invite a dozen of his friends, relatives to come down to Bengal. Then they will encroach on public land and start some business both legal and illegal. Today close to 1.5 crore people from the cow belt resides in Bengal.

This massive population is putting huge pressure on Bengal's limited resources and one after another infrastructure is collapsing. For instance every third individual being treated at a government hospital in Bengal is either from J'khand or Bihar. COVID has made it worse. These migrants will bribe local parties like CPM and TMC, so that they are never ousted.

Thanks, Sujoy


Unknown said...

If Arvind Kejriwal is as good a bufoon, then in a nation of idiots the state government are equally to blame for health shortcomings as much as the Centre..but look at the shit belching by the desi media to put everything in the lap of the Centre..pure power struggle and dilly dallying by so called intellectual and scientific thinking elites, who when it comes to stupidity of their ideologically aligned leaders, average out the phenomenon on all.

In so far as tata motors plant was concerned in W Bengal, there was a plan to develop the ancillary units centered around the plant over a period of time, but obviously this could not happen..what happened to Hindustan motors of the Birlas was not only closure of their factory in West Bengal but drop in year on year sales of flagship ambassador across the country which they were too thickheaded to correct..the product outlived its utility and market value..when sales decline, you dont have the critical mass to be profitable, hence have to close factory in West Bengal or any other states..

And here covids fourth wave in Japan..arrived in March 2021

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japanese-prefecture-says-deaths-home-surge-amid-4th-covid-19-wave-2021-05-11/

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/31/national/fourth-wave-coronavirus-japan/

Covid wave starts in singapore and consequent lockdown

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/singapore-back-to-lockdown-mode-for-one-month-as-cases-rise-11620971696399.html



Regards

Kunal



sandy said...

Hi Prasun,

Could you please do a detailed write-up on Helmet mounted display system available in IAF and a comparison to others available in the market. Sorry if I have missed some story if you have already done.

Regards,
Sandeep KS

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: Before pointing fingers at other4s, I would much rather set my own house in order, as charity always begins at home. Consequently, it is our collective inability to follow protocol & manage public health well for a huge well known variety of both cultural, economic & systemic reasons that requires urgent course-corrections. At the macro-level, a consensual charter of national governance is urgently required for avoiding political bickering. However, that is far easier said than done, given the inclination of ‘metas’ of all hues to resort to pointy-scoring (via politicking), like prominently portraying mugshots of ‘netas’ from posters to even coupons, it shows how abhorrant & disgusting the level of politicking has descended into. The mere sight of a country’s PM sermonising District Magistrates is illustrative how how far existing administrative mechanisms have regressed (don’t such PMs have anything better to do?). And to add insult to injury, such sermonising takes place in the presence of CMs to whom the DMs are answerable to, with the CMs being mute spectators to this shameful spectacle. Nor is any report-card available about the outcomes of such video-conferencings. Why should a national-level COVID combatting fund be called ‘PM Cares’ is anyone’s guess, since the implication is that only 1 person in the country is responsive to unfolding calamities. Such shortsighted decisions just for politicking purposes are proving to be fatally counter-productive as far as mass public participation goes. And the consequent lack of transparency results in DPSUs being given contracts for producing ‘desi’ ventilators etc etc that are now being discovered to be inoperable or malfunctioning. Wonder how such decisions can possibly encourage private-sector start-ups. Finally, the consistent non-application of sound common-sense continues to deny Indian citizens cheap pre-emptive immunising tools like intra-nasal sprays!

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: here is a rational explanation about economic degeneration of WB over the decades:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI4IU0FKB7s

To KUNAL: Not only the present crop of ‘netas’, but also successive generations of ‘netas’ since the mid-1970s are to be blamed for the current mess & chaos in the country’s public-health infrastructure. All such shortcomings are normally fixed during the first 25 years of any country’s existence. Thankfully now, the electronic media is fanning out across the country to illustrate the abject criminal negligence in several of India’s populous states, especially wthin the hinterland, although coverage of such areas in North Eastern states has yet to emerge.

To SANDY: These are the HMDS in use by the IAF & IN:

https://elbitsystems.com/media/targo_2016.pdf

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Rpp70LYHfQs/XHiDgtM_vFI/AAAAAAAAQ1A/COYQBUWTHlkuW2QtozOgnpqrUMzEF6ksgCLcBGAs/s1600/Sura-1%2BHMDS.jpg

https://defenceforumindia.com/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F_o_no4M2xEPY%2FSlC6dYlVoDI%2FAAAAAAAAHfU%2FXck1EOjpgRs%2Fs1600%2F2-797152.jpg&hash=48f8f0a60516d19b0308b19263c2dea0

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Very interesting reads:

https://theprint.in/health/drugmakers-cry-monopoly-as-modi-govt-picks-1-firm-each-to-make-over-20-key-raw-materials/661466/

https://www.wired.com/story/the-full-story-of-the-stunning-rsa-hack-can-finally-be-told/

https://theprint.in/india/shouldnt-have-gone-to-kumbh-covid-guilty-mela-returnees-now-say-in-mps-vidisha/661495/

MiG-21 crashes in Punjab's Moga:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQlyCHSql6k

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Thanks for your clarifications on both queries.

Also deeply appreciate the link to that article about APIs https://theprint.in/health/drugmakers-cry-monopoly-as-modi-govt-picks-1-firm-each-to-make-over-20-key-raw-materials/661466/

Infact, for instance, the Company, RSM Performance Chemicals that has cornered PLI approval for Aspirin is a Trading Company owned by 2 Jain Brothers with a total paid up capital of 1.5 lakhs incorporated in 2019 while there are bigger companies actually manufacturing Aspirin.

This is what one would term the bureaucracy's SNAFU & Political cronyism. RDC & Hum Nhi Sudhrenge

Thanks & Regards

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- china had proclaimed that they had created the first photonic radar , while that's gping over the top, where do the world powers stand on this & also where does India stand on its R&D?
2- MDL running out of orders, what happens next? I sincerely hope that both the navy & MoD have learnt from the HDW fiasco.. but not betting on it :). i read that they have teh capacity to work on 11 subs simultaneously.. I doubt how many shipyards have that kind of capacity .. in the whole world!!!
http://idrw.org/mdl-submarine-drydocks-to-go-idle-from-2024/
3- will MK1a get an L-band radar carried on its wings like su 57 or elsewhere.. some articles floating around on this
4- GE's adaptive engine being tested.. can you share some more info on the same also RR is in the process of building one possibly for the tempest.. any remote possibility of India being involved in some miniscule way if some deal with RR materializes as apart of the UK -india Bonhomie which is happening off-late
5 - Japan's XF9 engine why has drdo not tries to expolre that option ,, the japanese have been building major engine parts for commercial aircrafts for a long time - IHI, so thy do have some decent exp in this field
6-S Korea like turkey has been building its def products with a lot of parts got off the shelf from the west, any meaningful outcome of the Indo-korean defence partnership materializing apart form Vajra?
7- how far has drdo come w.r.t directed energy weapons & who can we partner to accelerate its development into meaningful products? Israel?
8- chinese highway --http://idrw.org/china-builds-key-highway-through-brahmaputra-gorge-in-tibet-near-arunachal-report/ -- anything of significance?
9- CPEC seems to be dead & buried.. albeit quietly
10 ONGC kicked out of Farzan -B gas field.. any signiicant impact? this seems to be Iran's modus operandi.. when they start getting some traction with the US they start playing traunt.. somethng similar had happend during the Obama era when they got the nuclear deal.. then came trump

AniOne said...

Prasunda,

One more punishment from Gods of Yore.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/cairn-energy-sues-air-india-to-enforce-dollar12-billion-arbitration-award-court-filing/ar-BB1gLak5

Current govt is increasingly looking like UPA-2 govt. High on numbers. Low on governance.

Regards

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

From media reports it seems Sweden, South Korea, Israel and Russia have all pitched their light tanks in response to the Indian Army's RFI for Light Tanks.

(1) In your opinion which tank has the best chance of winning the tender?

(2) Given that a tank gun has serious barrel elevation limits... normally less than 5 degrees depression and maybe 20 degrees elevation and in mountains you would struggle to manouver the vehicle to aim the gun correctly if the target is above or below you, does it make sense to deploy even light tanks in the border with China?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

sir,
1. is there a truelry redesigned arjun mk2? if yes cud u upload/write a article on it?pls.
2 how does our recent 70mm/s propellent compare with western competiotrs?
3.does NGARM missiles have Home-on-Jam capability?
4.since i heard that drdo has mastered explosive driven EMP, can't build smerch like rockets with EMP effect on the rocket?

thank you
Yogesh

rad said...


HI prasun
elbits brochure for targo 2 hms depicts the dash hms been integrated on the su-30mki , how oon earth did they manage that ie ti integrate on a russian sysytem , given thecopmplexities to match the r-74 missile?

VSJ said...

1) USA has a second secret cyber army with 60000 people.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-inside-militarys-secret-undercover-army-1591881?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

Details of
-Tactics
- Penetration of enemy nations' databases and networks
- Devices

And i shudder to think there could be a rock or a brick in MOD sending out passive data.

2) Are our Cyber warfare to be fashioned along these lines if not as advanced?

3) USA also has attached cyber warfare units to military formations and theaters to fight on those levels. How will ours be arranged? Centrally?

4) In above article about medical licenses you've linked, reminds me of strategic partnership model.
Building and nurturing one industrial giant in particular weapon expertis each like sub, land, air which is a brain dead move. Why should there be a ban? Let anyone with proven financial and technical comeptency to bid. And let MOD judge them in pre contract audits.

For starters L&T is proving good at every field while Reliance naval failed. State govt owned ABG also failed. While subsytem and field experts like MKU and Alpha etc are winning.

Thanks

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

That's the problem with geniuses like Joydeep Ghosh ... There genius sandhivichhed becomes genuine+ass

I am not an andhabhakt ... If I support the BJP today, it's because I am sick at tired at the endless minority appeasement that happenned in post independence india for 60 years

I believe in equality ... No quotas for anyone ... Even Dr. Ambedkar suggested quotas for a limited time

All these liberal idiots made quotas into a vote tool and now they have a problem when a party makes the majority its vote bank ...

This is just balancing though I believe that one sided anything isn't good

There must be some balance which makes me happy for Capt Amrinder and Kejriwal

My problem with mamta di is her hate and revenge agenda and her extreme minority appeasement

And till bjp gets a genuine CM candidate in Bengal, they won't win, hope Sourav Ganguly comes on board soon

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasunda, in this latest video an influential journalist close to the BJP says that the Center is planning to divide Bengal into 3 separate states within a year or two. Is this true?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjlOaS8aq4Y

Thanks, Sujoy

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

he he what dis i say aboutt CHANAKYA CHATTERJEE that he will prove me right and he did :-)

btw

1. INS Rajput was decommissioned shouldn't this be refurbished and sold to a friendly nation

2. why is China poking nose in Afghanistan

3. developing a non stealth version of AMCA first as TEDBF could be the answer as you have said developing naval version first help in developing AF version

http://idrw.org/a-non-stealth-naval-amca-as-tedbf/

4. commonality is ok but why develop 9 Super Scorpnene, for that cost at least 3 -4 more SSN could be built, so as per me 9 Scorpene (AIP added later), 6 SSBN/SSGN, and 9 SSN are enough, the number stands total 24 though includes SSBN/SSGn instead of current revised plan of 24 excluding the 6 SSBN/SSGN

your views on these

thanks
Joydeep Ghosh

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your earlier rebuttal. I have further expectations from you. Now the issue is about world's reaction to China's handling of covid induced pandemic.

Nothing happened. US and the rest of the world just accepted that it's nature's fury. No one held China accountable for this disaster. Any rebuttal about it.

My view is that China got easy bypass over the pandemic and it's a victim; not a criminal country.

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

aversensible and commonsensical idea indeed

http://idrw.org/why-csir-nal-90-seater-regional-transport-aircraft-should-have-been-an-mta-for-military/

thanks
Joydeep Ghosh

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,

Related to the above Topic, how true are the reports of Chinese peacekeepers refusing to do their duty and running away from their post in South Sudan? If they are true how are the Chinese are planning to overcome these deficiencies given that no matter how thorough and well their planning is regarding the reorganization of PLA but if the soldiers are not up to the task then what is the benefit?

Thanks & Regards

Hardik Thanki

ShivKurup said...

Prasunji,
1) What is the sanctioned number(if any) of destroyers, frigates, and corvettes respectively in the indian navy? If no sanctioned number, then what is the ideal number?

2) There is much chatter from online sources about china's spectrum dominance capabilities and AI capabilities. How far ahead of india is china in these areas?

3) If a conflict between india and china occurs before 2025, will indian military be able to adequately defend against china's electronic warfare capabilites in ladakh and arunachal?

4) If america puts CAATSA sanctions on india will it affect the MF-STAR radar and barak-8 from israel?

5) How will CAATSA sanctions affect the Rafale aircraft and meteor missiles from europe?

Thanks

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

Can expect shallow commentary from inhabitants of a civilisation that wore loin cloth and lived as hunters when we had cities, drainage systems and a lot more. Sure we lost our civilisation to a thousand years of occupation but I suggest you read this

The US PATENT offic has multiple medical benefits of cow urine patented ... Am not saying it should be tried for Covid bcos that's not been medically tested but pls don't belittle what you don't understand.

Ayurveda was a holistic treatment form, much of which has been lost to occupation but a scientific temperament would suggest retesting many old therapies scientifically, rather than dismiss them out of hand

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3117312/

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

An insightful first person account from Israel

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2021/05/hamas-needs-to-get-israels-message.html?m=1

Anonymous said...

If CAATSA is put on India will we still be able to maintain P8i and other equipments.
Regards,
Chintan

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Such radars were shown back in 2018 itself at the Airshow China expo. 2) All shipyards worldwide have that kind of production capacity because not all SSK hulls are built together at the same time, but at various levels of construction & assembly. 3) Mk.1A variant of Tejas is still a L-MRCA & hence there’s no internal space for L-band T/R modules. 7) R & D work on such DEWs has been underway since 2010 & ‘desi’ anti-drone DEWs can now easily be fielded. However, major power-management challenges lie ahead for ‘desi’ medium-power/high-power laser effectors. 10) Far more cheaper to import LNG from Qatar & the US. 4, 5 & 6) All such efforts require an enormous investment in rare-earth materials.

Neodymium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7pusAWBCoE

Rhenium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAFSADDlAaM

Rare-Earth Metals: Dysprosium, Gadolinium, Gallium, Germanium, Iridium, Molybdenum, Neodymium, Niobium, Osmium, Palladium, Promethium, Rhenium, Rhodium, Ruthenium, Scandium, Tungsten, Tantalum, Terbium, Thulium, Vanadium, Ytterbium, Yttrium

To ANIONE: Another thunderclap from the ‘Gods of Yore’:

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/antrix-devas-deal-german-telco-moves-us-court-against-govt-flags-unpaid-damages-7327406/

To VIKRAM GUHA: As I had stated a few times before, there’s no need for any kind of ‘Light Tank’ or ‘Light SPH’ & it was all explained in great detail here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/05/what-has-plagf-learnt-from-dogra-gen.html

The above also contains details of the IA’s ‘Combat Group’, i.e. the predecessor of the conceptual Integrated Battle Group that has been in existence since mid-1988. Consequently, the present exercise of RFIs being floated for any kind of light tank will be futile & will eventually be dropped forever.

To YOGESH: 1) All such details were posted in a previous thread. 2) It is still not on par with the latest that’s available. 3) Check out its brochure that was uploaded in the thread dealing with Rudram-1 NGARM. 4) MBRLs are area saturation weapons that cannot have pin-point effects of the type expected from EMP-generating weapons.

To RAD: All such interfacing R & D efforts were done BEFORE April 2014, after which Western sanctions against Russia were applied in response to Russia’s invasion & annexation of Crimea.

To VSJ: 2 & 3) India does not have any such offensive capability. Efforts are now underway ONLY to create cyber warfare cell, not even a tri-services cyber warfare directorate. 4) It is all about lack of strategic visioning. For instance, all the talk nowadays is about injectable vaccines, whereas the real ‘gamechanging’ solutions are coming from the arena of intra-nasal sprays:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHchic3ZLnQ

And yet, how many Indian pharma companies apart from Bharat Biotech have invested in this field?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: LoLz! That so-called ‘influential’ desi patrakaar was parroting soundbytes of 2014 vintage & nowhere did he identify any village or that is a no-go area for any kind of law enforcement agency. Nor did he name any village or hamlet inside WB where Rohingyas reside. And everyone knows that after the ouster of the BNP-led govt in Dhaka, the ISI’s influence in Bangladesh has been eliminated. The only ‘enemies’ now are the Bangladesh-based Bihari Muslims who enjoy the support of Jamaat-e-Islami inside Bangladesh, who still maintain links with their Indian relatives inside Bihar & Jharkhand. The r4eal ‘enemies’ that can create some trouble within the Siliguri Corridor are elements from Assam & other parts of northeast India, like this one:

https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/what-is-dnla-northeast-rebel-group-of-dimasa-tribe-that-lost-6-members-in-assam-encounter/664034/

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) That’s not possible, since the OEMs associated with such warships don’t exist anymore, nor can India-developed systems be installed within such warships in the absence of warship design data. 2) Why shouldn’t it? Doesn’t it share a common border with Afghanistan at the Wakhan Corridor? 3) On paper, yes. In reality, no one in India has the human resources reqd for developing the MWF, TEDBF & AMCA Mk.1 at the same time. Even if AMCA Mk.1 is dropped, the R & D effort for the MWF will consume all of ADA’s & HAL’s time & money. 4) 90-seat RTA CANNOT be developed as a MTA as it is a narrow-body design & cannot even accommodate a BMP-2 ICV. The IL-214 MRTA was a widebody design. Hence, any any talk of a militarised TRA is a no-brainer & absolutely nonsensical. In fact, even a 90-seat turboprop as a RTA is a no-brainer & instead the 90-seat turbofan-powered civilian RTA from HAL makes more sense.

And finally, how HAMAS built its MBRLs & Rockets:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=od0KzQN4TpQ

Since the overland smuggling from Sudan no longer exists, the only way for Iran to resupply HAMAS is via Iraq & Syria overland & then by sea to Gaza. But then again, the sea blocade of Gaza will be impossible to penetrate.

What the final solution will be: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfVJR7SqZiw&t=2s

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASD: One cannot throw stones at others while living inside a house made of glass. Consequently, instead of going after China, India must first fix her own glaring & horrific shortcomings that have been successively flagged since 2015 itself, like all these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okPGwg9qJqY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW4u3sENbmc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAVPZ-OG5rQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTyVF8nE5RU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4p7Xs4hIrk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-oyDZv3GEE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeiJ-4fMHE4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZG5cER_46QI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsgSSxGRIuM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-7_jzbVs9w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIgV4wC2Tfo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smcp8axLQ5g&t=70s

To HARDIK THANKI: Those reports are all true & documented by the UN itself. In addition, since institutional corruption still exists within the PLA, it won’t be possible for the PLA to engage in any kind of hard-contact kinetic warfare with any military foe for at least another 6 years at best.

To SHIVKURUP: 1) No such figures exist. It all depends on the whims & fancies of each successive CNS. Since the present-day CNS is from the naval aviation branch, all attention has been focussed on naval aviation issues. 2) China does not enjoy any form of dominance against India in the military sphere, because India is part of the ‘Ten Eyes’ global surveillance network & now after the inking of BECA & CISMOA agreements with the US, India has access to much higher quality of surveillance data. 3) Since institutional corruption still exists within the PLA, it won’t be possible for the PLA to engage in any kind of hard-contact kinetic warfare with any military foe for at least another 6 years at best. 4) Of course. 5) Us-origin electronic components on such weapon systems can be barred for export to India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To CHANAKYA CHATTERJEE: The ‘shallow’ commentaries are all emanating from those very medical practitioners who prescribe ayurvedic treatments. None of them are even referring to the US patents that you are referring to. All such ‘desi’ practitioners only refer to what’s written in the YAJURVEDA & other ancient texts that only say WHAT needs to be done, & not WHY. It remains a mystery why the AAYUSH & other organs of the GoI remain reluctant to scientifically validate the ‘holistic’ treatments that you are referring to. And it is for this very reason that Ayurveda or even Yunaani continues to be referred to as a faith-based medicinal approach when compared with Allopathy. Reliance on as-yet-unproven ancient glories enjoys no recognition in the 21st century. And taking advantage of this distortion are opportunists like Ram Kishan Yadav & Patanjali. Even the 'netas' do not have the brains & intellect to promote 'desi' scientists like Dr C V Raman or Satyendra Nath Bose or Jagdish Chandra Bose or Dr Hargovind Khorana through biopics, choosing instead to promote TV serials on various Bhagwaans, Devis & Devtas.

This is why the following needs to be examined & paid heed to:

“I don’t think we are right yet to claim to be vishwa guru. We are not a great generator of knowledge or great innovators. We are actually an importer of knowledge, of technology, of ideas. Of course, this can change but not today. Secondly, being vishwa guru doesn’t necessarily mean that Indians lead better, more prosperous, safer, secure lives, which is our fundamental job, and not to change the world, get revenge, gain status or to get other people to say how great we are. What’s happened in the last few years is that foreign policy is being used for domestic political purposes… It is part of domestic image projection and is used for those purposes… All this projection of India being a great rising power, a global power and so on is essentially us. The world is much more realistic. The world measures your material power, hard power, your economy, your military strength, and your ability to run your own affairs well. Then they look at the softer dimensions… Today, I’m afraid that what’s happened recently has hit our soft power as well.”

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/shivshankar-menon-post-covid-everyone-will-be-diminished-we-have-to-handle-our-problems-competently-not-do-image-management-7327291/

What the final solution will befor the Israel-Palestine dispute:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfVJR7SqZiw&t=2s

Interestingly, while even in Israel one is openly discussing the emergence of a secular state that will eventually replace the existing Jewish state, in India the reverse is true, wherin the secular foundations are being eroded by: 1) faulty definitions of secularism. 2) Historically incorrect interpretations of a monolithic cultural identity. 3) Reliance on messianic religiosity to create electoral polarisation all aimed at grabbing political power, especially within the Hindi heartland.

And how the ‘desi patrakaars’ continue to get it all wrong:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgVV3-Vjl3k

ShivKurup said...

Prasunji,
1) What about china's artificial intelligence capabilities? How advanced are they with respect to their battlefield uses?

2) Will india be able to defend agianst such chinese artificial intelligence battlefield uses?

3) In terms of human resources, as far as training, tactics and morale go, how would you rate the indian military versus the chinese?

4) If america puts CAATSA sanctions on israeli products, will israel be able to replace american components on the MF STAR and barak 8?

5) Correct me if I'm wrong, but as of now only Indian army has ordered land based barak 8 for 5 regiments. The indian air force is still to order it. Right?

Thanks.

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

Joydeep

If only the LEFT knew what RIGHT was communism wouldn't be dead today ... Ha ha ha

Unknown said...

In india the state was never secular..it was a colonial state and what unfortunately is happening is that none have guts to get rid of colonial institutions..once they get rid of it, the right history, culture, religiosity will occur..but given the present democratic system that exploits differences to serve political interests, i wont be surprised that some parts of the country balkanise 50 to 60 years from now

Regards

Kunal

Unknown said...

Some interesting snippets on covid vaccination in germany. Hope likes of ravish kumar, who consider themselves paragon of rationality and scientific thinking, do something good with their miserable lives and below average IQs:

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/tip-offs-cold-calls-germans-hustle-covid-19-shot-2021-05-19/

Regards

Kunal

AniOne said...

Dear Prasunda,

It seems again that the world is following on your advice. High time, you must be the adviser to Indian Govt on strategic matters.

https://twitter.com/centerofright/status/1396859443833282565

Regards,

Unknown said...

Nasal spray vaccines has been on development since last year..it is based on scientific advise received by the vaccine manufacturers and not prasoon..hahahahah

Regards

Kunal

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

a topic on turkish arms industry speciallyits drone that helped Azerbijan turn tide and forever rewrite military doctrine, will be good

thanks
Joydeep Ghosh

@chankya Chatterjee

my friend some things are way beyond ur paygrade to understand unless u decide to use greycells

ciao

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

Dear Prasunda
I totally agree that scientific research needs to start on a war footing ... A good first step would be to research everything in the CHARAK SAMHITA ... since it's a fully documented book.

If india doesn't soon big pharma will do it all and we will have lost our historical civilisational advantage to MNCs. It's not just basmati, haldi and neem that we have ... We have a bounty of civilisational practices and knowledge that if researcher and backed by scientific evidence, change the course of modern medicine

And considering that most of it is natural medicine, human clinical trials should be completely safe.

Just look at yoga ... The whole world is doing yoga and we have gyms at every corner where most trainers don't even know how breathing is connected to exercise

AMIT BISWAS said...

https://twitter.com/atomicarchive/status/1397232321242275851?s=20

Tactical nuka aka pakistani version

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

You misunderstood my earlier query. I was asking about the developed countries grudge upon China for creating the pandemic and destroying the world.

I mean have the USA, European countries got any paln to teach China a bloody lesson. I'm not able to see this. It seems everybody has just surrendered being innocent beyond limit. Please share your view.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: Ravish Kumar’s exposes on the state of ‘desi ventilators’ seems to be quite balanced & eye-opening:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWgZQKkmfbM&t=41s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sA8SgyovaIA

No one seems to know why BEL got the contract for building the ventilators when this Indian OEM already does it:

http://www.skanray.com/?q=content/ventilators

And then we have HLL Lifecare that issues this tender:

http://www.lifecarehll.com/tender/view/reference/e2c9cd9303b5c85296b84213935f37fdjYCLfQ

HLL imported the ventilators fromM/s Aeonmed, China, through M/s SINOPHARM, China, which is the manufacturer of the ventilators.

And then we have this ‘desi’ TV channel that broadcasts talk-shows on the Wuhan virus leak while hosting advertisements from HAIER, a China-based consumer electronics OEM:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZzJLFrJ5TI&t=25s

And it is the other way around: West-based scientists advising the vaccne manufacturers. Even Bharat Biotech’s intra-nasal spray is based on US-based R & D, not any in-house R & D.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: LoLz! Turning the tide? That’s like saying armed UAVs will win all future conventional wars just because they have been used against terrorists who don’t have any air-defence weapons!

To ASD: You are jumping to conclusions. Every country as asking for a credible & independent investigation. If China does not relent, then several options are there on the table.

To SHIVKURUP: 1) Don’t get taken in by China-origin propaganda. 4) It is possible, but cost-prohibitive. But the US won’t impose CAATSA sanctions on India since the US has already got 70% of what it wants from India & only the outstanding 30% is now being negotiated. 5) The IAF’s Barak-8 was shown at DEFEXPO-2016 & one Launch Unit was deployed in Jammu before February 27, 2019. That means the IAF’s orders were placed by 2014 itself.

Kaustav said...

Sir

Not a tactical nuke at 15 kilotons. Ofcourse, nothing within Pactani capabilities either. Tacticals are sub-kiloton or at a stretch less than 5 KT.

ShivKurup said...

Prasunji,
1) What are the things US wants from India that you referred?

2) What is the 70% that we have given them?

3) Are india's electronic warfare capabilities sufficient to defend our frontline forces from chinese EW?

Thanks

Abs said...

@Prasunda

You informed that US won't impose CAATSA as they have got 70% of what it wants from India and only outstanding 30% is now being negotiated.

Please also tell us what are the US demands that count for the already accepted 70% and the negotiated rest of the 30%?

Thanks

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

This article argues that NATO needs to deploy rocket artillery in large numbers to prevent Russia from invading the Baltics.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/05/rocket-artillery-can-keep-russia-out-of-the-baltics/

(1) Do you think India should also try deploying rocket artillery in large numbers against China?

(2) China has already deployed long range rockets like PCL-191 with range of 350 kms against India. How should India target these rockets? Some serving Indian Army officers are suggesting India will use swarm drones to hit Chinese rockets. Please provide some insights.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/chinese-rocket-systems-vs-swarm-of-indian-drones/articleshow/82276598.cms

Thank You

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

Prasunda, your analysis of this from the quad Perspective would be great

https://csbaonline.org/research/publications/dragon-against-the-sun-chinese-views-of-japanese-seapower

AniOne said...

Prasunda,

Your statement that "the US won’t impose CAATSA sanctions on India since the US has already got 70% of what it wants from India & only the outstanding 30% is now being negotiated."

Compare and contrast this with these two headlines below:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/18/biden-sanctions-nord-stream-pipeline-489437
Biden administration to waive sanctions for head of Nord Stream 2 pipeline

Did we got something in return or beggar can't be choosers.

To put it bluntly, Indian strategic planners nai yahan bhi pant khol dii US ke saamne.(Pardon my foul language).

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SHIVKURUP, ABS & ANIONE: The answer has always been staring at our faces, but needs a lengthy explanation:

With every passing year since independence, India’s technological dependency has been growing in every sphere of life & today India remains one of the largest nett technology importers in all spheres of industry, despite govt agencies like ISRO & DRDO shanelessly labelling portions of their human resources as ‘scientists’. Even if any end-product is 100% designed inside India, all the high-end industrial machinery reqd for mass-production has to be imported. This dependency is unbreakable & will remain perpetual, especially in the arenas of Big Data & Safe/Secure Telecommunications technologies, networks & systems for both commercial & military applications. Consequently, if India wants to attain the status of a major industrialised economy in the years to come, then she can rely only on West-led multilateral alliances in every sphere, starting from education & ending with all types of industrial end-products. Nether Russia nor China can become the West’s substitute. So, be it futuristic 6-G or 7-G telecommuniocations networks or marine gas-turbine propulsion systems for warships or turbofans for combat aircraft or commercial air transportation aircraft for airlines or new-gen vaccines or industrial automation tools or tunnel-boring machines, India will have to go knocking at the West’s doorsteps & will always be a nett receiver, not a nett contributor. India’s decision-makers have still not understood what a true knowledge-based society is all about & hence they get mired in ridiculously outrageous & futile attempts aimed at domesticating Big Data companies & their social-media networks. This & only this explains why India’s EAM is spending 5 days in the US trying to strike a grand bargain with the US in a way that ensures India's compliance with the new technological regimes that have yet to be made public but which will have tremendous impact on all our material lives for the years to come.

To VIKRAM GUHA: I had already highlighted all this in great detail in these 2 threads a year ago & what the solutions ought to be:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/09/china-developed-long-range-tnw-armed.html

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/04/punitive-targetted-medium-field.html

Meanwhile, hopefully you will have a good laugh after watching this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI4bg7FWDdc&t=30s

mg6357 said...

Hi Prasunji,

I watched below discussion regarding Air Defence Command of Indian Armed Forces. This is a 1.5 year old discussion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_IgZW3_9oo

1. How are we going to integrate S-400, Barak-8 & Akash systems in one ? Do we need to develop a new system to integrate these different systems together ?

2. China has not created an Air Defence Command for themselves and integrated their air defence in their theatre commands.

Why do we feel the need to create a separate Air Defence Command & why can't we integrate the air defence in our planned theatre commands similar to China ?

3. How can we bring rationalization/standardization among different Air Defence Assets of our 3 Armed forces ?

4. Will our Govt. would publish any plan/structure regarding theatre commands or will this be done quietly & secretly ?

5. When are we going to sign the deal for 21 additional MiG-29 & 11 Su-30MKI yet & what will be the delivery timelines ?

6. What is timeline to retire MiG-21 from service ?

Thanks & Regards,
MG6357

Abs said...

@Prasunda

Thanks for bringing this up. We will remain a net importer of tech for the foreseeable future especially in the domain of high-tech imports. To be the opposite we need a mature industrial base which will have taken 2-2.5 decades as with the East Asian countries. Speaking from a purely nationalist self-centred view our aim should be
First- Indigenize low tech industries through some handholding such as tariffs, duties, import substitution.
Second- Not just import western high-tech but also attract the IP through the lure of a big market access, R&D-HR sops.
When you speak of west led tech regimes it is in USA's interests to keep us as a net importer forever.
My Qns are:
1. Do the US conditions for granting access to India to the tech regime involve taking guarantees that India will stop her nascent industrialization attempts and forever rely on western tech imports for our needs?
2. OR is it limited to enforcing permanent changes in the Indian defence tech import basket where Russians will cease to be an option for us?
3. OR as you mentioned social networks, does this involve guarantees from us that we'll not censor US based internet companies and hence miss out on developing a domestic AI-s/w base as China did with their s/w sector?
4. OR is it more dhanda oriented and involves giving preference through fiscal measures to US based companies to address our imports and domestic markets? Will it mean several US corps turning away from China to India for their manufacturing needs due to the global supply chain reset?
5. As we are in the negotiating table what are the outcomes that we would like to ensure to secure our interests? What will be India's bargaining chips to extract the maximum concessions out of the US with minimal let go's on our part?

Please clear the air and doubts on these very important aspects.

Thank you

AMIT BISWAS said...

Bangladeshis doing Novel act in india

https://kannada.asianetnews.com/crime/human-trafficking-racket-22-year-old-allegedly-gang-raped-bengaluru-4-arrested-mah-qtrvoh

AniOne said...

Prasunda,

Thanks for the detailed explanation. The last sentence in your explanation, sounds like, you are very worried about something,
"This & only this explains why India’s EAM is spending 5 days in the US trying to strike a grand bargain with the US in a way that ensures India's compliance with the new technological regimes that have yet to be made public but which will have tremendous impact on all our material lives for the years to come. "

Did something very worrisome have happened?
Going by EAM statement which Jeff Smith shared through his twitter account
https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/1397943822341005312

"Jaishankar: "the United States has not only an enormous ability to reinvent itself,
it also has a great ability to assess its situation and re-strategize.""
https://www.indianewsnetwork.com/20210527/india-us-ties-one-of-the-major-relationships-in-the-world-today-eam-jaishankar

What will happen from now on?

Regards,

Kaustav said...

It's time for the Indian political opposition to now shut up & wait their turn patiently. The GoI has just shamed all of them exposing them as idiotic nitwits unable to do anything & the BJP being the only viable gig in Town. Admittedly, it's Politics at it's Dirtiest, but then All is fair in Love & War. Maybe Khujli & Pappu are indeeed BJP Agents of sorts which the real McCoys like Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar, even Capt.Amrinder Singh & some others maintain discretion.

OTOH, What changes now is the vilification of PRC & India's reticence on the matter, while, hopefully or by defauly preparing to take advantage of opportunities arising.

A timeline on the Chinese Virus Timeline: How the Wuhan lab-leak theory suddenly became credible

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/timeline-how-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-suddenly-became-credible/?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Excellent article by Lt. Gen Panaag - As usual, it covers all bases & asks India to be realistic, bump up it's CNP & be creative as well. Infact, he asks India to do a Paxtan on PRC, but with more panache to avoid making the LAC another LOC. PRC's aum to cut India fo size worked better with the Chinese virus rather than their move to progressively occupy territory which India never effectively controlled while not actually engaging in an attack on either ITBP or IA posts https://theprint.in/opinion/india-must-do-to-china-what-pakistan-did-to-us-but-dont-turn-lac-into-loc/665770/

Raghu said...

Hi,

The following link presents the government's perspective on the Twitter issue. Quite informative

https://www.indianewsnetwork.com/20210527/twitter-s-statement-an-attempt-to-dictate-terms-to-world-s-largest-democracy-indian-government

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- What is the story about US saying they are working with pakis for getting airbase while Qureshi vehemently denying it.. will paki-US bonhomie start again? they get off FATF, more say in afghanistan ? add Afghan taliban openly threatening pakistan...how will this pan out..
2- Why is there a sudden focus in the US on the lab origin theory of Wuhan virus now?
3- Why did Russia thru its proxy stge teh Ryanair stunt? what was the trigger & what did putin achieve thru it?
4- will the 2nd wave force the govt to put OFB privatization on the backburner?


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MG6357: 1, 2 & 3) I had already explained several times before that any Command requires its own integral assets & command-n-control hierarchy. That means an Air Defence Command must have its own quantum of Interceptor Sqns & SAM Sqns that are separate from the IAF’s fleet of combat aircraft like MRCAs. And since all combat aircraft of the IAF in future will be MRCAs, there will be not a single dedicated interceptor aircraft available for purely air-defence functions. So does this mean the proposed Air-Defence Command now begin procuring dedicated interceptor aircraft? That is why I have been repeatedly stating that the very idea of an Air-Defence Command is an IMPOSSIBILITY. Instead, what must be implemented is an integrated air-defence network, which involves the interfacing of existing air-defence networks of the IA & IAF & this can be done like this:

https://forceindia.net/defexpo-2020/integrated-approach-prasun-k-sengupta/

4) No Govt of India has ever published such data. It will have to be done by folks like me. 5) How can such deals be struck when the GoI continues creating lockdown conditions that results in govt depts working with only 50% staff? 6) MiG-21 Bisons will be decommissioned next year.

To ABS: Regretably, I don’t share your optimism about promoting domestic solutions & domestic industries since it is the Govt of India itself that has been repeatedly failing to encourage domestic solutions due to institutional corruption & intellectual bankruptcy, as evidenced by these:

https://theprint.in/defence/israels-athos-gun-system-or-atmanirbhar-atags-defence-negative-list-to-finalise-next-week/666695/

https://thewire.in/political-economy/modis-monogrammed-suit-rajkot-ventilator-vijay-rupani

https://thewire.in/health/bombay-hc-asks-centre-for-explanation-on-defective-ventilators-provided-under-pm-cares

To ANIONE: What will happen from now on is that India will have to fall in line, i.e. just like she prevented China-based OEMs from participating in 5-G network trials.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAGHU: LoLz! That further diminishes India’s global standing. Let me explain:

CLAIM: Twitter chose to show the geo-location of certain locations in Union Territory of Ladakh as part of People’s Republic of China at a time when India and China were engaged in peaceful resolution of border related issues through bilateral dialogue. Twitter took several days, that too only after repeated reminders, to rectify this blatant disrespect to India’s sensitivity and territorial integrity.
Reality: India herself has encouraged the whole world to adopt this posture, especially after she embraced the term LAC back in 1996, instead of continuing to reiterate in all forums her legal claim over Aksai Chin. In addition, after China post-2014 started claiming that Arunachal Pradesh & Aksai China were China’s ancestral lands, India failed to counter this assertion by not claiming virtually the entire Xinjiang & western Tibet as India’s ancestral lands—which in the Mahabharata era was referred to as ‘Uttar Kuru’ territory.

CLAIM: Twitter chose to take suo-moto action against those users who it considered as perpetrators of violence at the Capitol Hill in the USA. But, just a few days after the unlawful incidents on Red Fort in Delhi, Twitter refused to take prompt action on the lawful request made by the Government of India to block contents that sought to incite violence on the pretext of a fake genocide plan. Later, it chose to comply, that too partially, when the damage had been done.
Reality: Why did Inida fail to fail the very same twitter to launch an information warfare effort with her own counter-narrative? Doesn’t China, despite banning Twitter’s domestic usage, also use Twitter for its Wolf Warrior diplomacy?

CLAIM: Twitter’s lack of responsibility has led to rampant proliferation of fake and harmful content against India and Indians. Promoting vaccine hesitancy has been rampantly done through the use of Twitter platform and yet Twitter has taken no action. Is this commitment to the people of India?
Reality: Vaccine hesitancy is being promoted by the likes of Ram Kisan Yadav, a.k.a. Baba Ramdev, the CM of Uttarakhand & now this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oroS8BMekcM&t=36s

Unknown said...

There is a huge vaccine hesitancy in some communities of india. This includes Muslims also who dont follow baba ramdev and others. Vaccine hesitency cannot therefore be blamed, out of convenience, on a few people only. This is especially true in a very diverse country like India.

Further comparing conduct of india with PRC would be like comparing apples with oranges. While a lot remains to be desired, the fact is that, social media bodies have to promptly comply to government directives. If facebook, linkedin etc have done so, there is nothing left for twitter not to do so. On a long term basis, i forsee the feathers of.likes.of twitter, facebook etc would be cut like below. I would be therefore careful in long term bet on their shares.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/05/24/florida-gov-social-media-230/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56107028

Also little debate is happening, including this blog, on the adroit use of AI by these social media giants manipulate peoples opinions, elections, regime changes

Regards

Kunal

bhoutik said...

* came across something old that i remember reading a while back. thought i would run this by you, an old AMA reddit thread of a 'claimed' USN person who spent a few days on an IN warship - https://old.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/9uwqzk/iama_us_naval_officer_who_spent_5_days_onboard/

was that a truthful account?

* also came across a few images purported to be from a chinese mil.mag on arihant, thought i'd share...

-https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1WncW_WUAIlbBU?format=jpg&name=large
-https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1WncEZXMAEd4cP?format=jpg&name=large
-https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1Wnco4WYAUm00S?format=jpg&name=large
-https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1XWQQ7WQAACV76?format=jpg&name=large

Murukan said...

Recently there has been a lot of media in China talk about Chinese military tech on its western frontier. A lot of tweets coming out say "PLA deployed this weapon, that weapon, sophisticated weapons, helicopters, etc... "
This one, for ex: https://twitter.com/evazhengll
And they show the power of weapons by firing.

As usual, the Indians respond, and then there is a war of words/comments exchange between Indians and Chinese. And a few Pakistani beggars show their support to PLA.

Whereas we hardly see any such "technologically advanced weapons or firepower" by the Indian army/airforce.
I am not a regular visitor to your blog but I like your blog and some of your comments.

So my Q is: Is the Chinese propaganda - a kind of psychological war to intimidate the IA? OR Are these Chinese firepower really that monstrous as mentioned in these Chinese media/tweeter?
Why I doubt because to tweet on Twitter, a Chinese national needs the permission from CCP. So all these tweets on Chinese firepower could be just propaganda.

Q2: How can Indian Defense strategically balance this out?
Q3: Is there a way to end the bullying by CCP?
Q4: Some of the Chinese people who live outside China say, they are concerned about the way the CCP is functioning.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

The utopia SIL / FIL duo of Jared Kushner & Don Trumpioni were selling in Middle East has started to fall apart that said

1. stuff Palestinian mouths with money sourced from oil-rich arab countries n distributed through businesses owned n operated by Israeli settlers

2. force them to forget abt their own land/country and reconcile to live in ghettos, walk on roads designated by israeli military like apartheid

3. do farming in designated areas, let cattle owned by Israeli settlers graze on their land as n when they like and get shot at when they try to stop (israel has annexed much of west bank with only fertile jordan left untouched yet, reports say IDF is just 4 km away from it)

this falling apart happened after last week when US Prez Biden called up Netanyahu asking to stop bombing Gaza, the arrogant and overconfident man not only refused to listen but actually tried to shut him down (some report say), the bruised ego of US is now playing its cards well

1. nudged Saudi to tell Israel categorically that any desecration of Al aqsa and forcible eviction of Palestinians are red line (this arm twist was enough to force Israel to agree to Egyptian ceasefire terms)

2. US will itself fund reconstruction of Gaza (don't think Israel will dare bomb those US built infrastructure)

3. nudge Israeli party that has been saving Netanyahu's chair in last few years to join a opposition-led coalition, (in all probability Netanyahu can go as early as next month and new govt will have to follow US diktat)

4. a little birdie says US in all likelihood will reinstate the aid funds to PA withdrawn by Don Trumpioni a well as reopen the PA consulate in next few weeks

Why I raised this simply bcoz India has been playing its cards wrong since last 7 yrs and as the current situation shows the trioka are simply unable to handle the situation, which is why

1. Iran kicked out India from the gas field OVL discovered in Iran (ostensibly to teach a lesson for its support to Israel forcing India to do a face saver by abstaining from UNHRC vote against Israel, India always held human rights sacrosanct and any vote their had its support)

2. Ch\na is now on west coast of Lanka permanently

3. When world was busy ordering vaccine 8 month ago India was busy stifling digital media channels, social media platforms, arresting dissident (by planting false evidence) and discrediting Rahul Gandhi (I know you will still say otherwise but fact is Rahul Gandhi has been proved right time and again no matter how much anyone tries to discredit him)

4. I still see andhbhakt say 'petrol price 200 / ltr (despite lockdown, factory shut and traffic down by 60% petrol in much of India is now 100 / ltr) hone do but aayega to Modi hi', but now its not TINA (there is no alternative) but NBA (next best alternative) and whether anyone likes it or not its INC that is a national party and others will have to join them to stay relevant

all this is happening and the troika at the top is appearing totally clueless

thanks
Joydeep Ghosh

nag said...

my state has the lowest vaccination till now. there is no cow brigade here but its the result of DMK and their commie allies propaganda which has created a fear for vaccination. every day they were creating doubts through tv debates ( all most all newss channels are controlled or owned by dmk in TN) and social media. result is even doctors afflicted to the party did not take vaccination. but all the leaders went on first to take the shot.

Deepsikha Agarwala said...

Which version of F414 will be used on the TEJAS MK2? The baseline version which gives 98KN thrust or the one which delivers 116KN thrust?

If the 98KN version is used, won't the MK2 be an underpowered aircraft since inception?

Unknown said...

In my reading, the fear of vaccination is principally because of initial propaganda by media houses on hurried approvals of covid vaccines and they being unsafe. Some incidents of people getting sick post vaccination was overplayed to create an impression that central government is reckless, unintelligent and unscientific in hurriedly approved ng a vaccine which has potential to harm or kill people. These same media houses are now over playing the cow urine, cow dung cure mumbo jumbo done by some fools. The opposition party like congress, tmc, cpim played a pivotal role in this propaganda through its ideologically aligned media houses. Rest as they say is history.

Regards

Kunal

Unknown said...

"result is even doctors afflicted to the party did not take vaccination. but all the leaders went on first to take the shot."

This is so funny. Chutiya banagaye, hahahahaha

Cheers

Kunal

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Has the 380 mm version of the Prahar been tested ? The early version tested in 2011 was 420 mm. If so, is this system in serial production ?

2) Any chance that PLA would initiate a conflict at the LAC particuarly in Eastern Ladakh in tandem with Pakistan to establish its dominance militarily?

3) How true are reports of cities in China, particularly Guangzhou, locking down due to a renewed covid surge ?

Barindra

just_curious said...

Prasun,

2nd import ban published, what are your thoughts on it? towed artillery not on the list .. not all seems well with ATAGS. also why not ban ULH give Bharat Forge has the tech

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

What happens to J&K once a non-BJP govt. comes to power? Will the effective repeal of Art. 370 still stand or will the status before Aug 5, 2019 (Art. 370 and 35) be restored, taking us back to square one and encouraging separatists ?

Satyaki

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: Since 80% of India’s population is non-Muslim, the focus should rightly be maintained on those non-Muslim communities that are hell-bent on not getting vaccinated. Also, there is so little debate is happening, including this blog, on the adroit use of SOUND COMMON SENSE, and instead efforts are being made to deflect attention towards AI-based applications, which tantamounts to putting the cart before the horse. Chutiya banagaye toh Ramdev ne, as proven here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qALhpvI536Q&t=12s

He is prescribing medications for diseases that don't even have any Ayurvedic or Sanskrit names!!!

To BHOUTIK: Unless such accounts are made by a person who is willing to be held accountable for his/her utterances, such anonymous postings are only worthy of being dumped into the trashcan.

To MURUKAN: Simply put, all that is mostly for domestic comsumption inside China. No one gets either bullied or intimidated.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: You really ought to taking on all the world’s problems on your chest & instead focus on matters more closer to home, such as ATHOS versus ATAGS (see the following thread) because India is graduating from ATMANIRBHAR to AAYAAT (import) PE NIRBHAR.

To BARINDRA: 1) Not yet. 2) Not over the next 6 years, rest assured. 3) Both Guangdong & Liaoning.

To SATYAKI: No one will go back to Article 370, rest assured.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: The following thread explains it all. The good news is that the latest list bans the import of 3.5-tonne land-based LUHs, i.e. no more talk of Ka-226T.

Unknown said...

And the 80 percent is not a monolithic thinking community given their varied perceptions, beliefs and motivations. Baba Ramdev is but a very insignificant cog in the wheel as the media is trying to make him one. So yes you are spot on that there is upstream and downstream lack of common sense in this blog.

Regards

Kunal