PLAGF's Gameplan In East China Sea

In January 2019, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Academy of Military Science’s Deputy Director Rear Admiral Luo Yuan had proposed that the PLA seriously consider sinking two of the US Navy’s aircraft carriers. This would, according to the Rear Admiral, resolve the dispute surrounding both the East and South China Seas by sending a message to Washington regarding the dangers of militarily provoking Beijing in East Asia.

Rear Admiral Luo had then referred to “five cornerstones” of possible US weaknesses, noting: “What the US fears the most is taking casualties.” Referring to the PLA’s high-end anti-ship missile capabilities, he noted that sinking at least two US Navy-operated aircraft carriers would lead to losses of several thousand US servicemen—a cost no US government would be willing to tolerate. Rear Admiral Yuan indicated that China’s growing and formidable arsenal of new anti-ship missiles, which are designed to and capable of bypassing a full carrier strike group’s defences, would be able to cause considerable damage to hostile warships in the East or South China Seas. “We’ll see how frightened America is,” he had said. Elaborating on the reasons for his proposition, Rear Admiral Luo said that China had to “use its strength to attack the enemy’s shortcomings. Attack wherever the enemy is afraid of being hit. Wherever the enemy is weak, just focus on developing (an advantage).” 

Eighteen months later, as the US Navy’s two carrier battle groups, centred around the aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan, have been conducting military exercises in the contested waterways of the South China Sea since early this month, the PLA Navy’s (PLAN) two aircraft carriers—Liaoning CV-16 and Shandong CV-17—are both holed up at Dazhu Shan, 30km southwest of Qingdao in Shandong province, and in Dalian—while the PLA Ground Forces (PLAGF) are reportedly gearing up for invading the Taiwan-owned Pratas/Dongsha Islands (20 41 11.12 N, 116 47 17.00 E), which comprise one island, two coral reefs and two banks, and are located about 170 nautical miles (310km) southeast of Hongkong SAR.

And entrusted with this tasking is the former Nanjing Military Region—which on February 1, 2016 was re-organised as the Eastern Theatre Command, and which commands amphibious mechanised units that are now subordinate to the PLAGF’s 71 (in Zuzhou, Jiangsu province), 72 (Huzhou, Zhejiang province) and 73 (Xiamen, Fujian province) Group Armies (GA). Each of the GAs is made up of six Brigades.

And maintaining a daily vigil along the eastern and southern coastlines of China is a Northrop Grumman E-8C Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS) of the USAF, which has been flying daily from July 12 out of Okinawa, Japan.

Within the PLA, it is the PLAGF’s amphibious assault forces that are tasked to invade and occupy “big island” targets, with the PLA Marines being tasked to invade and occupy the smaller shoals and reefs. The PLAGF’s amphibious assault forces will deploy from vessels like the PLAN’s six Type 071 landing platform docks (LPD), Large Landing Ship Tanks (LST) and Zubr hovercraft; as well as PLAGF-owned LSM craft. They will also take advantage of high-speed mobility offered by Z-8 heavylift helicopters (and escorted by WZ-10 attack helicopters) and in the form of Combined-Arms Air-Assault Battalions, conduct reconnaissance, small-scale raids, infiltrations, and special operations attacks (against the entrenched Taiwanese coastal defences comprising both field artillery assets and anti-ship missile Batteries) through vertical envelopment. In terms of island-landing operations, the PLAGF forces will play the role of a first-attack force that operates inside hostile or contested territory, with the Mechanised Combined Arms Amphibious Brigades providing the main external attack force.

The PLA’s amphibious landing operations concepts are focussed primarily on “attack on main targets” (zhongdian daji), “three-dimensional landing” (liti denglu), and “deep strike” (zongshen). The focus is on landing from multiple sites and launching mobile raids—and this is a mode of operations that takes advantage of high-speed seaborne and airborne transport platforms to conduct raids over all types of terrain and at multiple sites.

Still, conducting a simultaneous airborne and seaborne invasion is easier said than done, and speed and the consequent tempo of operations will of absolute essence. Therefore, to reduce mobilisation time, the PLAN has sited its Zubr hovercraft base directly to the west of Pratas/Dongsha at Zhanjiang, while a PHL-03 long-range MBRL Regiment has been positioned to the south on Hainan Island (for being ferried to Pratas/Dongsha on short notice).

In addition, at Danzhou on Hainan Island, the PLA Rocket Forces (PLARF) has created a new storage facility (under Base 62) for housing the 624 Brigade’s DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which are armed with EMP-generating warheads and are meant for launch in the direction of any inbound carrier battle group, so as to deny them their network-centric war-waging capabilities.

In addition, the PLAN has inducted into service up to two mobile landing platforms (MLP) for ferrying heavier warloads. At a July 10, 2015 ceremony at the PLAN’s Zhanjiang Naval Base in Guangdong province, the 868 Donghaidao, a 50,000-tonne displacement MLP with a giant staging platform installed at its waterline, was commissioned into service. This MLP can accommodate a wide variety of hovercraft, helicopters, fast-attack craft and armoured fighting vehicles. This MLP was launched by Huangpu Wenchong Shipyard and is a 33-metre by 120-metre submergible platform that is large enough to carry up to three Type 726 hovercraft.

Possible Retaliatory A2AD Options

To neutralise the seaborne threats from both the PLAN and PLAGF, Taiwan’s republic of China Navy (RoCN) in the 1990s itself developed and procured the homegrown 400km-range Hsiung Feng-III (Brave Wind) supersonic anti-ship cruise missile, which can be launched from both warships and land-based wheeled TELs. 

However, no air-launched variant of this missile was developed. Instead, the Republic of China Air Force (RoCAF) opted for the 200km-range, turbofan-powered Wan Chien (Ten Thousands Swords) standoff air-launched cruise missile (similar to the Raytheon AGM-154A JSOW), which was declared fully operational in August 2018.

Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, on the other hand, completed the development and testing of its air-launched ASM-3ER supersonic anti-ship missile in 2018, following which it has been under series-production for Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF). Under development since 2003, the ASM-3 is designed for launch from Mitsubishi F-2 M-MRCAs. The 200km-range ASM-3 has a top speed of Mach 3 and a 900kg warhead. 

Eventually, the JASDF will service-induct three different types of modern anti-ship missiles: the Raytheon-Kongsberg subsonic sea-skimming Joint Strike Missile (JSM) for the F-35 JSFs, the subsonic 800km-range Lockheed Martin AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) for the upgraded F-15J/DJ H-MRCAs, and the ASM-3ER for the F-02 M-MRCAs.

Looking to the future, Japan’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) has started developing a hypersonic multi-role missile for attacking both warships and ground-based targets. Development work began last year and is due for completion by 2030. ATLA is currently in the development phase of the scramjet engine along with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which won the contract for prototype engine R & D. The missile will be powered by a dual-mode scramjet engine (DMSJ), a combination of ramjet and scramjet (supersonic combustion ramjet) engines, to fly at a wide range of speeds, including hypersonic speeds of Mach 5 or even Mach 15. The scramjet engine is expected to have high engine efficiency in a wide range of speeds because the air inhaled from the intake is compressed and combusted at supersonic speed when the missile is flying at Mach 5 or higher. That means that the scramjet engine would be needed accelerate the missile to hypersonic speeds to operate, and that would require acceleration by a rocket booster. However, a large rocket booster would be required to accelerate to hypersonic speeds, which would increase the overall length of the missile, including the booster.

Therefore, ATLA plans to combine the capabilities of the ramjet engine, which operates efficiently in the Mach 3 to 5 speed range, with the scramjet engine (DMSJ) being used to reduce the proportion of the rocket booster. In this way, the rocket booster only needs to accelerate the missile to supersonic speed, and from there, the ramjet engine accelerates the missile to hypersonic speed, which then activates the scramjet engine to cruise. ATLA is now working with Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to realise the DMSJ. According to the ATLA, the hypersonic missile can cruise at high altitudes at hypersonic speeds while manoeuvring, making it difficult for hostile air-defence systems to intercept it. Both RF and IIR seekers will be used to identify targets, and its warhead will of the high-density explosively formed penetrator-type (EFP) for penetrating hardened targets.

Rise Of The Supersonics

It may well sound surprising, but it is a reality that the Indo-Pacific region today plays host to the largest number and types of supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM), be they air-launched, sea-launched or ground-launched. The former USSR was the first to induct such missiles into service in the Far East, with the 4.5-tonne Raduga P-270 Moskit being fielded since 1981. This 120km-range ASCM had a speed of Mach 2.2 and carried a 300kg warhead. It was only in the late 1990s that this missile was exported to China.

This was followed by the 3-tonne NPO Mashinostroyeniya-developed P-800 Oniks/Yakhont in 1987. It had a speed of Mach 2.5, range of 600km and carried a 300kg warhead.

In early 2011, eight such missiles were delivered to the Indonesian Navy, while the Vietnam People’s Navy (VPN) in 2013 procured from Russia two Batteries of the K-340P Bastion-P land-based coastal defence systems that came along with 40 Yakhont ASCMs for its 681 and 682 Brigades, and EXTRA projectiles from Israel Aerospace Industries for its 685 Brigade. The 150km-range EXTRA has a CEP of 10 metres. Vietnam occupies about 24 islands and reefs in the Spratlys, including islands close to China’s reclaimed bases on Subi Reef and Gaven Reef.

The second country to introduce supersonic ASCMs into service in the early 1980s was China’s 1.85-tonne YJ-1/C-10—manufactured by the China Aerospace Science & Industry Corp (CASIC)—that had a 300kg warhead, a 50km range and a top speed of Mach 2. This was followed by the 3.4-tonne HY-3/C-301 with 180km-range, a 500kg warhead and Mach 2 speed. Both types of ASCMs used liquid ramjets and were used only for coastal defence.

India became the third country to field supersonic ASCMs since the year 2000 onwards when her navy first procured the 1,951kg Novator 3M54TE Club warship-/submarine-launched missiles from Russia that has a 220km-range, 200kg warhead and a top speed of Mach 3. Following next in 2003 was the 3-tonne BrahMos-1 with a 300kg warhead and a speed of Mach 2.8.

Next was Taiwan, which in 2007 began using the 1.5-tonne Hsiung Feng-3 ‘Brave Wind’ ASCM, which was developed by the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST). The missile used a solid fuel main booster with two side-by-side solid-propellant jettisonable strap-on rocket boosters for initial acceleration, and a liquid-fuelled ramjet for sustained cruise. Its maximum range is 200km, while its speed is Mach 2.5 when armed with a 120kg warhead.

The first supersonic ASCM using integral solid-propellant ramjet propulsion that is now entering service in the Far East/East Asia is Japan’s 900kg Mitsubishi ASM-3, which has a 200km-range and a top speed of Mach 3.

The second such supersonic ASCM to enter service was the YJ-18 (a clone of the 3M54TE), which has a 537km-range when armed with a 300kg warhead. The YJ-18’s turbojet engine is capable of flying at a cruise speed of Mach 0.8 for about 180km and after that point the warhead section separates and a solid rocket engine ignites allowing a top speed of Mach 3 for about 40km.

Another such ASCM now being developed is the HD-1A by its developer Guangdong Hongda Mining Company.

China’s 2.5-tonne liquid-fuelled YJ-12/CM-302 ‘Eagle Strike’ missile, which has a 400km-range, a 205kg warhead and a top speed of Mach 4.