Yes To Temporary Disengagement & De-Escalation, But Permanent De-Induction Ruled Out

Analysis of satellite imagery around the Indian Union Territory of Ladakh reveals that while the disengagement and de-escalation by the opposing military ground forces of China and India remains a possibility in future, de-induction of such forces will remain impossible, thanks to the PLA Ground Forces’ (PLAGF) unabated construction of permanent habitats and related ammunition storage facilities in areas close to southern, central/eastern and northern Ladakh.

To the south (see above slides), the PLAGF has erected permanent habitats and related ammunition storage facilities at Zhaxigangxiang (32.526563 N, 79.633600 E).

In the central/eastern areas (see above slides), permanent habitats and related ammunition storage facilities now exist at Rutog (33.396564 N, 79.786035), with a new heliport now coming up at 33.654 N, 80.449 E. In addition, a PLAGF synthetic combined-arms brigade is now located at Khurnak (33 45 25 N, 78 59 50 E).

To the north, in an area spread over 250 hectares and located 65km to the east of Burtse/Daulat Beg Oldie (35.275994 N, 78.760580 E), permanent habitats and related ammunition storage facilities are being at a hectic pace, along with a PLAGF heliport at Tianwendian (35.246275 N, 79.542584 E).

There at least 11 portals or shafts bored into the rockface on both banks of the river-valley. The images show massive construction activity over the last few months and are a likely attempt to protect heavy weaponry and soldiers from Indian air-strikes and extended-range artillery. By establishing underground facilities and developing subterranean infrastructure in such proximity to the border, PLAGF strategists seem to be aiming to counter-balance the current advantage held by the Indian Air Force in Aksai Chin. In the years since the Galwan clash of June 2020, the Indian Army has effectively scaled up its offensive fire vectors, especially long-range tube and rocket artillery. The PLAGF decision to carve into hillsides is directly linked to greater Indian offensive capability. The massive construction activity, including hardened shelters, bunkers, tunnels, and the widening of roads is being done to mitigate this clear and present danger which the Indian Army & Indian Air Force have imposed on the PLAGF deployment doctrine in Tibet. It is clear that China is hardening its military presence in Ladakh against possible artillery and air-strikes in the event of a full-scale military escalation. We can see what are likely reinforced command positions and underground equipment storage facilities. Such facilities greatly enhance the PLAGF’s ability to continue operations and limit attrition if an armed conflict were to break out in Ladakh. Multiple berms and revetments of the site in December 2021 indicate that the location had been identified as a key staging point during the height of the India-China faceoff in Ladakh when PLAGF forces had made multiple incursions into the Indian territory along the LAC. This same area has now been completely transformed with massive, ongoing construction activity. The new images, from August 18, indicate the presence of four reinforced personnel bunkers constructed along the valley face, along with three tunnel areas, with two and five portals or tunnels at each site, carved onto the hillside. Heavy earth-moving machinery can be seen in multiple locations. A primary road, which cuts across the valley, has been substantially widened. The images also show that the earth has been raised around the personnel bunkers to provide additional protection from direct attacks. Entry and exit areas have a distinctive fork design meant to dissipate the impact of pressure from bombardment and feature raised earth berms.