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Friday, February 22, 2013

Finally Sanity Prevails! MoD Decides Not To Blacklist Any More OEMs

This landmark decision, taken during a meeting of the Union Cabinet Committee on National Security earlier this week, follows a series of representations made by the three armed services to both the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the National Security Adviser P. Shivshankar Menon, all of which have had the desired effect. Historically speaking, such blanket blacklistings have been legally untenable and indefensible and consequently, the only nett losers have been India’s armed forces. For instance, the Indian Navy’s (IN) Dabolim-based MiG-29K tactical flight simulator, procured from Germany-based Rheinmetall, is today a virtual white elephant. Furthermore, more than 12 principal surface combatants of the IN are in dire need of Barak-1 CIWS installations, which again were postponed indefinitely on the advice of the Central Vigilance Commission. All this has served to pile up enormous pressure on the MoD’s bureaucracy as well as on the presently-serving Raksha Mantri to not jeapordise national security any further by resorting to blanket blacklistings that never seem to have a satisfactory end-state.

It is now believed that blacklistings enforced for the past decade will also be lifted, albeit without any official announcement, with just an official confidential notification being sent by the MoD directly to all the blacklisted OEMs about the discontinuance of their respective blacklistings. All this, however, should not detract the MoD from pressing for liquidated damages from those OEMs that have been proven to act in contravention of their contract obligations, especially with respect to the Integrity Clause. In cases where culpability has been legally established (as in the case of the DENEL Group), and is likely to be established (as is the case with Finmeccanica), the MoD should make all-out efforts to sue such OEMs for contract violation and corporate accounting frauds and claim liquidated damages with compound interest.

127 comments:

Anonymous said...

mr sengupta is it true that indian army has placed an order on 20 cheetal helicopters from hal?
if it is ture for what role, and is there any chance for further order?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Of course it is true, since it is a HAL-issued statement. The orders should have been placed in 2005 itself (when HAL had first proposed the Cheetal upgrade). The IA has wasted eight years in the process. The existing transmission is fully capable of supporting the TM-222-2B2 engine. All that HAL ought to have done by now was to develop & flight-test all-composite main & tail rotor blades for the Cheetal, thereby doing away with the heavier limited lifespan all-metallic rotor blades. Do this, & the Cheetal will easily be able to remain in service for yet another 20 years. The same also applies to HAL’s ‘Chetan’ version of the SA.316B Alouette-3/Chetak. In my view, all existing SA.315B lama/Cheetah/Lancer & SA.316B Alouette-3/Chetak helicopters require a rebirth by being upgraded to Cheetal & Chetan standards as they’ve still got a lot of life left in them. Even after the HAL-developed LUH’s arrival, the Cheetals & Chetans can still be put to good use by the National Disaster Management Agency. Moral of this Story? India can’t afford any form of wastage & in aviation parlance, there’s no such thing as an obsolete or ageing platform. Either a platform is maintainable & serviceable in an airworthy condition, or its’s not. And clearly the Cheetal & Chetan have a lot more to offer than what meets the eye.

Anonymous said...

Prasun sir,

Can you put some light on the status of NAL Saras. I read somewhere that they are going to test a sleeker version of saras at the end of february. Is this true? And what's your opinion about it's future in civil aviation sector and in armed forces.

thanks and regars
Abhay

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Interesting analysis: http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/winning-the-battle-but-losing-the-war/article4439676.ece?homepage=true

More about this at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pC74L6AdvRg

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABHAY: SARAS started out as an R & D project of, by & for scientists & consequently ended up as an overweight flying machine. Nothing has changed as far as its R & D management structure goes. Consequently, the project is 'un-commercial' in my view & that's why even the Russians withdrew from this project in the previous decade. In my view, keeping in mind the expected passenger load-factors expected in the years to come when travelling between Tier-2 & Tier-3 airports, NAL would be better advised to stretch the SARAS' airframe to accommodate 26 passengers. With the benefit of hindsight, NAL should have originally attempted to develop a 26-seater twin-turboprop, something like the An-28 equipped with a rear-ramp.

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa ,

Does CIA and MI6 have field offices in India ?

Thanks,

Vikram

Mr. Ra 13 said...

MoD decision regarding not blacklisting any more OEMs without solid reasons is appreciable notwithstanding the fact that it is somewhat late.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: Of course they do, & they're headed by their resident Station Chiefs.

To Mr.RA 13: Hear Hear!

KSingh said...

Sir, it is no exaggeration to say this news has made my day!!

THANKS A BUNCH for reporting it.
whilst all those other pricks carry on down the hyperbole, sensationlist road.



But do you see this AW-101 having any adverse affect on the N-MRH deal which was set to close soon but with a Finceinmia entiy (NHI) in the hunt will this affect the comption as a whole even though it is widely belived that the S-70B was going to win?


And what do you see as the outcome of this entire AW-101 fiasco being? 3 AW-101s being devlered back to AW? Or the remaining 9 being delvered, as shceduled, this year?

KSingh said...

+ Prasun, what will now happen with the 2 examples you have mentioned ie the MIG-9K simulators and BARAK-1 missiles?

Will reglar service be resumed? Will these issues now be sorted?

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Do you really mean Pak has only 10 N-warheads compared to 60 or so on our side ?

What will be their total when we reach 200 odd in 2020-2025 timeframe ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSINGH: As for the 16 shipborne NMRHs, it can be logically deduced that the Sikorsky S-70B Seahawk will emerge as the L-1 bidder, especially against the Eurocopter NH-90N. As for the end-game for the AW-101 fiasco, matters will have to wait for the Italian Courts to deliver their verdict. There’s nothing anyone in India can do about it (as I had been stating since Day 1), since all the evidence gathered exists in Italy & the CBI can only act as observers during the court proceedings. Nor can India unilaterally cancel the contract since there’s no legal basis for doing so, at least not until the Italian Court delivers the guilty verdict. And since the proceedings will not be concluded in the near future, India has no choice but to take delivery of all 12 AW-101s. By the year’s end, if the Italian Courts pronounce a guilty verdict against Finmeccenica, then & only then will the Govt of India be required to file a case in an Italian Court against Finmeccanica for liquidated damages compounded with interest for the sum of money that Finmeccanica overcharged the MoD, i.e.51 million Euros + interest. And Finmeccanica will then have no other option but to cough up the amount, since it will be pressurised first & foremost by the EU Parliament to do so—given the EU’s zero-tolerance shown to acts of corruption or corporate accounting frauds. That is how the story will play itself out in the months to come, i.e. a replication of the Lay Fayette/Kang Ding FFG fiasco involving Taiwan & THALES Group. Regarding the Barak-1s & product support for MiG-29K flight simulators, once the de-blacklisting notifications are issued by the MoD, it will be business back to normal.

To Anon@5.14AM: In the interests of ensuring the stability of nuclear deterrence, Pakistan will then have no other choice but to expand the size & type of its n-weapons arsenal by arming its Babur LACMs & Ra’ad ALCMs with nuclear warheads. The number of warheads will then go up to roughly 60, from the present-day 10.

Bhaswar said...

Sir you've mentioned before that the numbers pertaining to the Pakistani nuclear arsenal that have been generated by western sources are based on fissile material stocks rather than actual warheads produced, if that criteria were to be followed in India's case then what number would these same western sources throw up?

Also, nuclear deterrence has largely been about sending the right messages- in that case won't India's move to put SSBNs to see with SLBMs with mated warheads force Pakistan to do the same. At the moment I believe that both countries keep their warheads un-mated, surely that will change. Any chance that China might lend Pakistan a hand with nuke boats like our Arihant or are the Pakistanis going to go with Chinese Type-043 Qing class submarines armed with nuclear capable baburs?

Also the Wikipedia page mentions that the Arihant is equipped with flank sonar arrays, is that true?

http://fissilematerials.org/library/gfmr10.pdf- this report on fissile material stocks claims that Pakistan may actually have a higher stock of weapons grade HEU than India as of 2010, any comments on this sir?

Kshitiz Kumar said...

sir what happened to DRDO dvlopd HULC.do u think it is a viable option and a good innovation.

Anonymous said...

Mr Briscoe is wrong on several counts
in his article on IWT and Kishanganga

Pakistani morale has been badly broken after the Kishan ganga and Baglihar defeats and there is NO way
that they will challenge India again

Secondly India does not depend on any INVESTORS for constructing dams in Indian Kashmir

They are 100 % funded by Govt of India

It is Pakistan which is being asked for getting a NOC from India for the Basha Dam

This is India's leverage

India ALSO has many experts who will advise the GOI to make the best possible use of the IWT

And if the Pakis challenge us in court we will bury them in paperwork

Anonymous said...

Basically Pakistan has a BIG problem with India using IWT to its advantage for generating power

Their ego gets badly bruised by Indian projects because they believe Kashmir is theirs

They are paranoid people And are blaming India for their water shortage WHILE WASTING SEVERAL Thousand TMC of water

Pakis waste their water in several ways
1 the SILT in their dams which has reduced the storage capacity of dams by 30 %

2 Seepage in canals

And Expecting the Pakis to do rain water harvesting is like asking a MULLAH to shave his BEARD

Pakistan has neither the money to construct new dams nor competent
people who can make large dams quickly

Bloody Retards

Their Tunnel Boring machines were lying IDLE on the NEELUM dam site for ONE YEAR because NO Paki knew how to operate it

And this is the same Neelum dam which will now have to REDESIGNED
after Kishanganga defeat

This SAME NEELUM dam was being constructed on a priority basis to prevent India from utilising Kishanganga water

Vikram Guha said...

Thank You PrasunDa.

So , does the US and UK allow RAW to have office/s in their countries ?

Regards,
Vikram

abs said...

@Prasunda
Question now is, IF the MoD would also lift the sanctions on other blacklisted firms. IF NOT, then the MoD should be sued for uncompetitive practices.

rad said...

Hi Prasun
Its nice to hear that there will be no more blacklisting of defence companies, much to the relief of the forces.The only beneficiary of these black listing is pak and china. No other country in the world is capable of will fully shooting themselves in the foot and take moral credit for that because , none of the politician`s children are serving in the armed forces , unlike in the west or the royal family in the UK.
Wouldn`t it be a great idea to equip the LCA with the meteor missile when most probably the selex raven with IRST could be selected just like the gripen. Will they allow us to hang the missile on a non european ac like the LCA .It makes sense as it is far more contemporay missile with great performance in every aspect, more over the intergration of the missile with the raven radar will be done by saab and MBDA we can join them and share the cost as well.

Anonymous said...

Hello sir,

During iron fist 2013 , 2 su 30 MKI aborted bombs delivery due to "operational reasons". Can u specify those reasons.

Thanks

Anonymous said...

sir ,
this is an interesting read..
do you think any of it could be true..

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=422955334458891&id=119644358123325

Vivek said...

Hi Prasun
Thanks for the revert
1. If all of pakistan's nukes (10 as per u) were supplied by Chinese then what has prevented Pakistan from making their own warheads till now specially if they have enough fissile material of their own to make 80 warheads........ plus if they didn't feel the need or didnt have the knowhow for making their own weapons till now despite india having 60 warheads then how will things change now and how will they make 60 warheads against our 200
2. I have often read that if India was to convert its entire stockpile of spent fuel from all its plants then it would have enough fissile material for 1000+ nukes and apparently it has the technology also, ur views pl.
Thanks

DAshu said...

" The number of warheads will then go up to roughly 60, from the present-day 10."- That means PRC will supply additional 50 warheads to Pak in comming years.

DAshu said...

but it's really a good news .. finally

Prasun K. Sengupta said...


To BHASWAR: In India’s case the estimated n-warhead count will easily reach the 200-figure mark. India’s sea-based retaliatory strike capabilities & postures all hinge around the no-first-use doctrine, whereas in case of Pakistan & China there’s no such stated doctrinal position as yet. China’s no-first-use doctrine applies to only non-nuclear weapons states. Consequently, Pakistan will not be tempted to try to attain strategic parity with India when it comes to WMDs. Presently, Pakistan WMD deliverance capability is centred around its arsenals of Shaheen-1 & Shaheen-2 ballistic missiles whose dispersed launch sites will be in the Northern Areas, i.e. Deosai Plains & the Chitral region. Therefore, unless India changes its WMD usage doctrine from a retaliatory strike to a first-strike posture, Pakistan has no use for acquiring SSBNs & SLBMs. India’s SSBN/SLBM assets on the other hand are neither Pakistan-specific nor are they required to counter Pakistan’s WMDs. In fact, they’re China-specific.
All contemporary SSKs, SSNs, SSGNs & SSBNs have flank-array sonars for providing advance warning on inbound hostile torpedoes.
Pakistan NEVER developed any WMD using HEU. All talk of usage of HEU was an elaborate & well-orchestrated charade to fool the world. It is all explained in great detail at: http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2011/09/finally-truth-about-pakistans-wmd.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABS: It already is being, in a way. For instance, the on-going case against the MoD filed by Singapore’s ST Kinetics. Rheinmetall too is following suit, & it should do so for a very good reason: Way back in 2007 it was decided that competitive bidding would be held for the tri-services reqmt for new-generation AAA
For replacing the existing L-70s. While TATA Motors & TATA Power SED had then teamed up with Rheinmetall to offer a motorised 35mm Avenger system, BEL much later tried to team up with Greece’s Hellenic Defence Industires & BEML to offer the Artemis system mounted on a BEML/TATRA vehicle. In fact, it was widely suspected then that the competitive bidding process was deliberately delayed by the MoD so that BEL could take its own sweet time to seek foreign industrial partnerships. This situation was indeed avoidable, since all three armed services had recommended the Avenger for service-induction under the ‘MAKE’ category, meaning a sole-source procurement without competitive bidding was legally authorised. Yet, the bureaucratic conspirators sitting at the MoD’s Dept of Defence Production & Supplies sabotaged all such well-intentioned plans just so that a DPSU could get into the fray to offer a system that was not even under consideration by the three armed services. This is, but one small example of how national security imperatives have been systematically compromised over the past 30 years.

To RAD: You’re absolutely right, for who need external enemies when there are enough interested & vested parties within India that will benefit from a weakened India! The Tejas Mk1s & Mk2s being MRCAs featuring open-architecture avionics suites, it will therefore be extremely easy to integrate the Meteor BVRAAM or any other kind of PGM or guided weapon system on to any Tejas platform.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@5.32PM: Before I answer that, kindly allow me to state that I have not seen anything substantially different in such ‘demonstrations’ of airpower between 1987 and to date. In fact, to be honest, such demonstrations provide temporary ‘hard-ons’ for only jingos & enthusiasts, & serve no other purpose & are therefore sheer wastes of money, material & time. Take only one small instance: does anyone really believe that the Su-30MKIs will be used in wartime to deliver clusters of OFAB-250/270 high-explosive fragmentation bombs or ZB-500Sh incendiary canisters or FAB-500 free-fall bombs, or BAP-100 anti-runway bombs or even Durandal anti-runway bombs? Delivery of such weapons is primarily the task of platforms like Jaguars & MiG-27UPGs, while platforms like the Su-30MKI & MiG-29UPG are supposed to act like a ‘Baaz’ (Falcon) ever on the lookout for hostile intruders & neutralise them, i.e. such platforms will in wartime be equipped with both standoff ground-strike PGMs as well as
BVRAAMs/WVRAAMs that will enable them to target both high-value ground targets & hostile airborne threats & engage them either in quick sequence or concurrently. Therefore, whatever is shown for public consumption during such notional exhibitions of offensive airpower is nothing but ‘Dhakosla’.

To Anon@6.26PM: It is 100% true. Why shouldn’t it? After all, this was the very strategy adopted by Maharaja Ranjit Singh when trying to impose the writ of his state over the then lawless badlands of present-day NWFP & FATA in Pakistan. His military chieftains like Hari Singh Nalwa honed such practices into a fine skill. In short, the lesson is: if one wants to domesticate & control brutal, then one has no other choice but to brutalise such brutals, i.e. give them a taste of their own medicine.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIVEK: It’s all explained at: http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2011/09/finally-truth-about-pakistans-wmd.html
Firstly, the so-called uranium enrichment facility in Kahuta was nothing but a cover for Dr A Q ‘Bhopali’ Khan to smuggle out the latest uranium enrichment technologies & related hardware out from Holland, Germany, Belgium & the UK & then supply all these to China so that China could establish a uranium enrichment plant in Hanzhong. It stands to reason that a country that cannot manufacture even bicycle chains or an automobile will not be able to design & fabricate either the fissile cores or their triggering mechanisms. All those Pakistanis that have been caught or entrapped since the mid-1980s whilst in the process of smuggling components for triggering devices were, in fact, acting as proxies for China.
Secondly, out of India’s estimated 60 n-warheads, only 20% are meant for deterrence against Pakistan, with the remaining 80% being China-specific. This ratio will always remain constant even as India’s n-arsenal grows in the years to come. Unlike Pakistan, India never had the need to target anything inside Pakistan with WMDs, since India’s conventional warfighting capabilities have always been more than enough to take care of any emergency. Likewise, for Pakistan, what exactly will be the targets within India for the 60 n-warheads that they want? Wouldn’t their ability to target Delhi & Mumbai be more than enough to guarantee strategic n-deterrence? The same argument holds good for the China-India scenario too, i.e. even if India’s n-weapons are unable to reach Beijing, India’s ability to target China’s coastal cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen or Shanghai or Kunming or Chungking will be more than enough for ensuring strategic n-deterrence.

To DASHU: That is the conventional thought today. However, matters could change if Sino-India rapproachment were to happen & the LAC were to be converted into an internationally recognised demarcated boundary in the near future. If this happens, then a possible strategic restraint regime involving all three countries can be worked out.

Vivek said...

Hi Prasun
Just to clarify on my pt no 2, I was referring to India having the technology to convert normal spent fuel in to weapons grade plutonium, apparently UK also has that technology

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: The norm of reciprocity is always adhered to in such matters, be it with regard to the UK, US, Russia, France, China, or even Bangladesh & Singapore.

SOUBHAGYA said...

Dear Prasun,
Can you give a brief comparison between Tejas and JF - 17 assuming that they confront each other in a war like situation. Who will win? Assume the provisionally selected weapon package for Tejas as of now.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

SOUBHAGYA: By confrontation do you mean dissimilar air combat in BVR & WVR envelopes for the JF-17 Thunder & Tejas Mk1?

KSingh said...

Prasun, what exaclty is the status of the F-ICV and how succesful do you see this project being?


Also what is going on with the F-INSAS, it has been a LONG time since any concrete news on it came out.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSINGH: The tracked FICV project too had gotten stalled since Rheinmetall was TATA’s strategic industrial partner & the MoD really messed up when it blacklisted Rheinmetall. Consequently, everything went haywire. Hence, after the blacklisting ‘tamasha’ has been done away with, the FICV project is expected to get some traction & will likely move ahead, with the main contenders being TATA & Mahindra Defence teamed with BAE Systems. On paper, the project is a sound one. Regarding F-INSAS, competitive evaluations between various vendors offering various sub-systems is expected to get underway next year.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSINGH: Here’s another shining example of path-breaking ‘desi yellow journalism’:
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/the-ghost-of-the-helicopter-past/article4446909.ece

And here are my answers to the queries raised in this ill-informed report:
“How much of this was brought up during the initial negotiations with Finmeccanica?”
There was no need to do so, for one cannot compare apples (twin-engined WG-30) with oranges (three-engined AW-101).

“How much of Westland’s design and engineering remains in the 12 VVIP helicopters purchased by India? Was the DGCA decision to ground Westland copters considered while signing a deal with Finmeccanica?”
The problem with the Westland WG-30 was excessive vibration while airborne, i.e. the integration of the engines with the gearbox/transmission was deficient. In fact, the engines were a bit too powerful for the gerbox to handle. The AW-101, on the other hand, features a brand-new (& not a legacy) propulsion system design & a brand-new gearbox/transmission design that cannot be compared to those of the WG-30 by any stretch of the imagination.

“Questions have also been raised on the rationale behind going in for a bulk copter deal.”
What an idiotic statement indeed. By the same rationale, one can easily question the rationale behind going for bulk purchases of Mi-17V-5s. And what’s wrong with bulk purchases anyway???

Anonymous said...

"The tracked FICV project too had gotten stalled since Rheinmetall was TATA’s strategic industrial partner & the MoD really messed up when it blacklisted Rheinmetall. Consequently, everything went haywire."
What are the terms of blacklisting ? I am asking this because in FICV MOD won't be purchasing from Rheinmetall directly, Rhienmetall is the tech partner.
Is the Tata subsidiary that is gonna sell FICV a JV between Tata and Rhienmetall like Mahindra-BAE or there's just a MOU signed between two for FICV ?
Where does Ashok Leyland stand ?They have a JV with KMW and a couple more companies.

I heard LnT is also a participant in FICV but they have no experience at all and i haven't heard of a JV of LnT for producing any vehicle.

What are the progress of procurement of various componenets for LCA mk2 like radar where you Vixen might win ? Also whats the progress of procurement of various radars especially from France by all the three services as you mentioned in one of your articles last year.

SOUBHAGYA said...

Dear Prasun,
Thanks for responding. I want to clear my words again. I want to know the speculated result if Tejas mk. 1 confronts with JF - 17 assuming dissimilar air combat in BVR/WVR envelop.

rad said...


HI Prasun
About the meteor for the LCA-2 , there seems to be no talk about the option of the meteor missile for the LCA. Could there be any opposition on us procuring the meteor even though it will come with the Rafale?.
I have noted that these bombing exercise are a big hoax as there are controlled detonations by people on the ground when ground targets are bombed even when the bomb misses the target.This was confirmed by an ex pilot itself.Its shamefull to do this in front of a large audience of foreign military attaches who will be laughing at us.
If some one tries to make me believe that india has only around 60 -80 nuke warheads, i tend to laugh , please explain my urge to laugh!!
I dont understand the logic of upgrading ww2 design L-70 bofors gun.
The avenger 35 mm gun with ahead ammo is the best in the world and the bad part is Pak has a lot of them .Dont you think we should get them with later fire control systems as it has been compromised Is it possible to integrate it with the AESA fire control system the Israelis have given us for the upgrade of the zsu-23-4 schilka, what happened to that upgrade?.

KSingh said...

Prasun,

Just LOL at those absurd conclusions guys have drawn. Why have they even drawn a link between the 1980s Westland deal and this AW deal? The platforms are complety different!! Just laughable.

And if 12 units are considered a "bulk" order then what about 126 Rafales? FFS! Stupidity doesn't even cover it!

What would these fools suggest? Buying everything in 1s and 2s? Leading to massive delays and cost increases? Is there no understanding of economies of scale??! Or for that matter operational and training timetables.

What possible questions could remain around an order for TWELVE helicopters?


I love how these journos think they are breaking news or getting a "scoop" when reporting this crap. Well done, someone has discovered how to use Wikipedia!!


The worrying thing is that all these BS allegations that consume the Indian media have the potential to inflict serious damage on the Indian military's modernisation drive by causing delays and enquiries and this and that.


I can, I'm sad to say, see a very real possiblity of the MMRCA deal being delayed even more because some stupid journos to after this deal now. I fear we have already seen the groundwork being laid by the recent reports attacking the ysar 2000 purchase of follow on M2Ks. And we can see that media pressure is enough to make "SAint" Antony shit is pants and cancel or seriously stall a major defence deal. All that has to happen is a few murmurs here and there and then for the Indian media to go after the perceived story with a vengeance and it is bye bye to the MMRCA deal.

+ Prasun, when do you expect the N-MRH deal to be signed?

sntata said...

Dear Prasun,
I am very much pleased to hear from you about wisdom dawning slowly in MoD.

Kshitiz Kumar said...

1.http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-12-28/india/36035531_1_drdo-vijay-kumar-saraswat-defence-technology
is it true
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/indian-army/45769-drdo-multi-calibre-gun-undergoing-trials.html

what about this blogs posts isr.u said
it is still in conce+pt stage?

2.what happened to drdo hulc?
3.what avenger system sir any links?

Kshitiz Kumar said...

3.http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_02_19/From-licensed-assembly-to-joint-production-India-wants-to-produce-Russian-tanks-T-90C/

is this true if it is then it is end
of arjun program

raw13 said...

Let me tell it another way. Shining india thought they were like USA, they would have these great rules and the world would come running to them. Reality is india is just a buyer and nothing more. India blacklist one company, it hurts them a little but at the end of the day its only INdia. They don't give a shit! If USA, UK, France, saudi, UAE, et el blacklisted them then they would worry. Over a year ago a representitive of one of these firms said india will come back with a tail between its legs :-))). He said they have no options and no capital left to spend and no skills even to produce 3rd grade materials!!!! HAHAHAHAHa

spanky's Blog said...

@raw13: Why r u trolling here?There are lot of blogs and forums for such jingoistic comments. This blog is pretty high on debating and intellectual comments.Thts why ppl like it.
Kindly don't troll here. You will find such forums all over the net.Please dont destroy the env here.

Thanks
Swarop

KSingh said...

Prasun,

There are media reports saying that the (relatively small) budget cut for the defence budget of 2012-13 is actually part of a new trend for India to reduce defence spending, is there any truth to this??


Will the defence budget of 2013-14 be more or less (without adjusting for infaltoion) than the orginal allocated defence budget of 2012-13?


I had always been led to belive this cut in 2012-13 was a one-off cut brought about by specific issues that would not lead to any spill-over for subsequent years.

Indian said...

Prasun Da,

Any substance evidence\public web link we can refer to support this head line "Finally Sanity Prevails! MoD Decides Not To Blacklist Any More OEMs " to support above ?

Logically and most practically this is the best solution India should have implemented long back...to help it's armed forces from lagging behind on every defense modernization projects.

Hence I suggested...

1.India should not scrap any deal which has been done after long field trial and evaluation done.


2.Armed Forces need to do a quick Technical Audit of the already delivered products such is in this AW case,AW-101s to check if actual performance parameters matches IAF qualitative requirements and to ensure that there has no compromise on quality happened.

3.Need to investigate if the bribe had any impact of compromise on Quality or Selection process ? If needed do re-check/trial to ascertain the actual performance parameters of the said product with ASQR/GSQR/NSQR requirements .

4.Need to fine/penalize heavily Finmecania for bribing if proven correct,for e.g. 50% of the deals to be repaid to Indian govt as penalty against breaking integrity clause.

5.Need to trace out, who got the bribe and where those money actually gone/distributed /channelized..identify those individuals and put a Deshdroh case on them...if any political party got these bribes..disqualify them from contesting any future Elections.

In India it's fairly easy to dis launch any defense deal by the competitor/loosing company with the help of commercial espionage division of secret/intelligence agency of the respective country to play game and set a artificial plot as if there has been a bribe/kick back scandal case by successful company. In this AW-101 case as it is clear...that there was no parameter change was done after the RFP was sent and hence no qualitative compromise is out of question. Except suddenly two people emerge and disclose by their own that they have taken and distributed bribe to Indian channels.

Indian intelligence should investigate...following

1.Nobody is checking the background of these two people ..if they are front/shadow human assets of other competitors/intelligence agency and working to cancel the deal.So that deal can be turned to them(looser company).

2.No one is asking ..if there has not been any manipulations/favours given...why any co (AW) will freely distribute/offer 100's of millions of $ to some body.

3.Even if we assume as per the disclosure of these two people..if the sum paid to them by AW. is that amount paid to them ...for any other agreement?

4.As per the case of AW-101 is was clear winner against it's rival Sikorsky (which cold not meet 4 technical requirements in field trials )..their is no question of quality compromise,because lots of air-forces/govts use Aw-101 for their VVIP transport heli role..even US was about to select AW-101 for Presidential Heli role.

raw13 said...

@Spanky

You are correct! Having re-read what i wrote it is too close to trolling....but i cannot remove it! If you knw how to please go ahead and do it.

Anonymous said...

http://www.zapaday.com/event/476782/0/India+launches+sub+sonic+missile+Nirbhay+.html
is it true sir ??? plz confirm....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@7.47AM: What are the terms of blacklisting? Nothing substantial, just based on mere suspicions & heredsay on the part of CVC & CBI. Hence the decision by Rheinmetall & ST Kinetics to take the MoD to court. Ashok Leyland & L & T don’t have the in-house expertise as yet to come up with a customised design as yet for a tracked FICV. Vendor selection for supplying various sub-systems for tejas Mk2 has been delayed by 1 full year & final selections are expected by this October.

To SOUBHAGYA: Given the fact that the Tejas Mk1 features a DARE-developed internal jammer & also comes equipped with HMDS, it will easily gain the upper hand against the JF-17 in all aspects of air combat, since the JF-17 does not have such built-in force-multiplier avionics.

To RAD: Meteor will be more qualifiable on the Tejas Mk2 & LCA (Navy) Mk2 since its capabilities are best exploited when used in conjunction with an AESA-MMR. The version of the Avenger offered to the three Indian armed services has a totally different fire-control system compared to what the PAF has acquired for base air-defence. I agree that the existing L-70s are serving way beyond their service-lives & any further performance enhancements will only produce negligible results. A much better option would have been to buy up surviving ZSU-23-4 Schilkas from former Warsaw Pact member-states & then mount their turrets & the IAI-supplied fire-control systems on a customised armoured structure & mount this entire kit on a 6 x 6 truck for both the IA & IAF. In this way, both IA & IAF could have had a far more effective AAA instead of the L-70. Such innovations are easily within reach of the OFB, DPSUs like BEL & even private-sector players, if only someone had the vision to things of this possibility (sigh!).

To SNTATA: Let’s hope this is a continuing trend.

To KSHITIZ KUMAR: That report also states that the MSW is “undergoing development”. The MSW therefore cannot be subject to any form of trials until all R & D objectives are first realised.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To INDIAN: 1) Only evidence of this is the on-going & the expected responses of the MoD WRT the AgustaWestland AW-101 issue. You will not require any further substantiation than this, nor are there any corroborative links/sources simply because all the ‘desi’ sources of news are still light-years away from the truth & are averse to functioning in a discerning manner, hence their ‘headless chicken-like’ approaches. For instance, the MoD cannot legally cancel any contract unless & until the CBI first files a chargesheet in a court of law. Issuance of a ‘show-cause’ notice therefore cannot even constitute a threat to cancel any contract, as was being alleged by the ‘desi’ mass-media.
2) The only way to prevent such incidents in future is to empower & authorise the military counter-intelligence branches of all three armed services to keep tabs on such developments, since neither the CVC nor the IB or R & AS have the wherewithal to keep such matters in check. In fact, the CVC & CBI have both been culpable in raising only suspicions without any definitive evidence. And that’s why the MoD is being taken to court by foreign OEMs like Rheinmetall & ST Kinetics.

To Anon@8.28PM: Pure baloney!!!

To KSINGH: The new year’s defence budget, even if hiked by 10%, won’t make any difference since inflation is still prevailing at 9%. Achieving 9% annual GDP growth rate matters only if inflation levels don’t rise beyond 2.3%. But since 2006, infrastructure development—a major reason for spurring domestic economic growth--has been stymied by bureaucratic hurdles, particularly due to non-issue of clearances from the Ministry of Environment & Forests. It is here that decisive leadership should have been shown by the PMO, but wasn’t, & it is this administrative paralysis that has caused India-HQed MNCs to invest their funds outside India. Just imagine this: a firm like South Korea’s POSCO commits to invest Rs20,000 crores in a project & suddenly out of nowhere someone decides to parachute over Orissa & declares that he will become the Delhi-based ‘Sipahi’/’Farishta’ for all those that are against POSCO or Vedanta & what follows next is complete mayhem, leading to an eventual standstill. A text-book example of: order + counter-order + disorder.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSINGH: By the way, here’s more trash, this time from Dr. Subramanian Swamy, MP:
In August 1999, just after the so-called Kargil military conflict, the Indian army made a strong plea for a high altitude flying helicopter, since the two combat areas where maximum Indian casualties took place was Tiger Hill at 18, 000 feet and Siachen at 17,500 feet. IAF Chetak and Cheetah could land at those heights but could carry only 4 combat troops per flight. The IAF also pitched in for new generation helicopter to replace Mi-8 version for the VVIP ferrying, which was incapable of night flying and above 9,000 feet. With the parameters in mind, the IAF was authorized to issue a RFP, in March 2002. Four suppliers applied. After a preliminary analysis, three suppliers were selected for flight evaluation. Agusta Westland’s A-101 failed to make the list after flight evaluation--because it could not fly at 18,000 feet and above. India’s swadeshi produced Dhruv helicopter could fly 20,000 feet, but was not certified at that time, and so it was never considered. That left two—Russian Mi-172 and M/s Eurocopter EC-225. After Operational Requirements were considered, the Russian copter got disqualified. That left one choice—EC-225, which was therefore selected by the IAF. It was decided to order 8 helicopters. Enter Brajesh Mishra. He, as Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, called a meeting on November 19, 2003. He rebuked the IAF for not being cognizant of the needs of VVIP, who he observed rarely go flying above 14, 000 feet. He added that if even if they do, as Defence Minister George Fernandes used to, viz., fly to Siachen, then such VVIPs can used the Chetak. Mishra made sure that IAF understood what he was saying by shooting off a letter dated December 22, 2003 to the IAF disapproving of the framing the Operational Requirements[ORs] without consulting him or SPG Chief on VVIP needs including the height of the helicopter entry door. Exit NDA from union government and enter UPA. But Mishra’s letter was curiously honoured by the UPA government on the invisible informal direction, through the PMO, of Ms. Sonia Gandhi. Therefore meetings were re-convened of the IAF, with PMO and SPG invited from March 2005, and the new ORs finalized in September 2006. The max heights were revised downwards to 4500 meters i.e., 14, 000 feet. It was also decided to order from 8 to 12 helicopters, with four specially decorated for VVIPs. A call for intent to buy was then issued. Six vendors responded. Agusta Westland of Italy was back in the reckoning in the RFP along with five others. The formalities of testing and evaluation were gone through. By February 2008, only two were left for choice: S-92 of M/s Sikorsky of US, and AW-101 of Agusta Westland of Italy [originally of UK, but which went bankrupt after selling helicopters to Pawan Hans in the 1980s. Italian government then bought it]. Field trials attended by the SPG as well disqualified the S-92 on the basis of a specially quality requirements [SQR]. Thereafter SPG Chief Wanchoo flew for two weeks visit to Italy in 2009 to give the Italians the good news—they had been selected thanks to the “rehanuma” Ms. Sonia Gandhi. The deal worth over Euro 556 million was inked and sealed on February 8, 2010 after the Cabinet Committee on Security cleared a month earlier. The nitty gritty of who gets what was worked out by Mr. Abhishek Verma, the son of the Hindi teacher of Ms. Sonia Gandhi. In gratitude for the Hindi taught, Ms. Sonia Gandhi agreed to become Patron of Verma Foundation AG, a benefactor of the deserving in the field of arms trade. That bribes were paid in this deal is well established by the Italian government investigation. A 568-page Report prepared by Italian Special Police has been filed in the Milan Court which can be officially accessed by the CBI if they ask the Court with a Letter Rogatory [LR] and not by flying off for a jaunt as they have done last week.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

cont'd from above....

This Report accessed by me informally refers to a total bribe paid of Euro 51 million or about Rs 470 crores. Of this Rs 200 crores has been paid, reverentially referred to as “The Family”. The receivers are relatives of Ms. Sonia Gandhi. The great facilitator in this deal, Mr Brajesh Mishra has a daughter, Jyotsna, married to an Italian belt manufacturer, who lives in Italy. It needs to be found out she got anything. Brajesh Mishra in 2011 was decorated with Padma Vibhushan by our Rashtrapati. What can we Indians do now?
First, the CBI must be forced to take out a LR, and go to Milan to access the Italian documents. The government should set a SIT of CBI, ED, SFIO, RAW and IB under CBI chairmanship.
Second, Abhishek Verma must be taken into custody for interrogation. Ex IAF Chief Tyagi must be also interrogated along with his relatives and intermediaries such as Aeromatrix.
Third, Christian Michel must be traced through the Interpol and arrested for interrogation. Thereafter, Rahul Gandhi, and his two Italian aunties, Anushka and Nadia [on the duo’s next visit to India] should be questioned on whether they had met him before the deal was inked and sealed, in Dubai at Hyatt Hotel in the company of a Keralite liquor Dada.
Fourth, one of us Indian activists against corruption, such as Action Committee Against Corruption in India [ACACI] should go to the Supreme Court with a PIL and ask CBI to be monitored in its investigation.
Fifth, the Defence Minister must invoke Article 23 of the Purchase Contract to suspend the purchases [only 4 of the 12 helicopters delivered so far] with a threat of cancellation if they don’t come clean on what happened.
Finally, the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh should tender a public apology for approving this corrupt deal in the CCS, knowing fully well what was happening.

Anonymous said...

Wow AW-101 deal is a watergate for Congress, initially based on your observations I assumed no bribes were paid in India, but this changes everything. Kudos for telling the truth, once the report is made available to CBI is there any chance this time the guilty are prosecuted unlike the Bofors scam

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@1.39AM: It changes nothing, for the rants of this mentally deranged MP (Dr Subramanium Swamy) are downright malicious, full of untruths & without any conclusive proof. For instance, firstly, George Fernandes never visited any of the IA's positions along the Saltoro Ridge or the Siachen Glacier, but merely Siachen Base Camp at Thoise. Secondly, the IAF/SPG evaluation teams never visited any of Finmeccanica's industrial facilities in Italy, but at AgustaWestland's facility in Yeovil, the UK. Thirdly, of the 12 AW-101s, eight are configured for VVIP transport & only four for the SPG. Fourthly, those AW-101s for VVIP transport ARE NOT exclusively for Indian VVIPs, but also for visiting foreign heads of state/government. Fifthly, AgustaWestland never sold any WG-30s to Pawan Hans. The WG-30s were supplied to Pawan Hans by the UK Govt as a grant-in aid package, & no one from India paid even a single paisa for acquiring these helicopters. Lastly, the deal that prevented AgustaWestland from going bankrupt in the late 1980s was the order from India of six Westland Mk42C NMRHs for the Indian Navy.

This is just a small example of how ill-informed, myopic, devious, mischievous & inept some of India's MPs are & who ought to be sued for defamation & be made financially bankrupt.

Another word of advice: don't bank on the CBI to produce any miracles, for the CBI has just obtained only bits & pieces of the investigative reports. Unless & until the CBI gets ALL the documentation that's been compiled by Italian prosecutors, the CBI will be unable to file any chargesheet & without such a chargesheet, the Govt of India will not have any legally tenable case against either Finmeccanica or AgustaWestland. Consequently, all the hot-air now being blown by the MoD against AgustaWestland is just a desi nautanki tailor-made for those who are gullible & 'I wanna believe' wannabes.

Anonymous said...

Hey Prasun,
You heard Hyderabad cops wanna send the footage of blasts to FBI for clearing it up ? They are right now sending it to Gujarat but if result is not satisfactory it will be send to US. NIA has already processed the image but result is not satisfactory.

Do you wanna hear the irony in this ? US is probably gonna send this image to Banglore for filtering because high level imaging work for DOD or the image processing software for UAVs are handled by a small image processing company of Bangalore. They are considered to be the best in the world but MOD(India) i doubt even knows about them, Even i forgot the name of the company.

Anonymous said...

Sir,
i would like point to you something

1. The money spent on investigation of bofors was more than the bribe amount. CBI officials stayed in 5 star hotels for months in swiss and had good on duty vacation. the inquiry committee, JPC etc was add on for the opposition. final outcome, nation atnet loss of bribe + money spend on inquiry.

the same will happen in this case. those who will try to find the truth will be vanish.

AKHIL SURI said...

Hi Prasun,

Did India ever purchase the S 300 from Russia ? I am finding a number of links that states that India did .

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/airdef/s-300pmu.htm

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120410/DEFREG03/304100001/India-Boost-Airfield-Defenses

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Today/Contemporary/325-SAD.html

http://www.rediff.in/news/mar/26russi1.htm

Anonymous said...

Sir, The last Su-30 that crashed over Pokhran firing range was it due to a premature bomb blast just after the bomb was released from the jet . What actually happened ?

Didn't the IAF squadron commanders ask their pilots to try their utmost in trying to save , retrieve a fighter jet uptill the last moment . Isn't a Su-30 strong enough to withstand a shock wave from such a blast and return home . Pilots must ditch the plane when everything else fails.

Under Super 30 upgrade will all the fleet of Sukhoi get AESA radar, Virgilius jammer, MSWS , TRD or only 50 which can't carry Brahm ?

How can the no go up to 340 if no new jets are ordered ? Doesn't the last order of Su-30 bring the total no to 314 ? Will the last crashed ax be replaced ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@9.27AM: Why am I not so surprised??? By the way, do listen to what this imbecile of an MP has to say about the private-sector’s role in military-industrial production at: http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/left-right-centre/cbi-begins-chopper-deal-probe-can-india-afford-to-stop-defence-imports/266294?video-justadded

According to this ill-informed MP, it is not advisable for India’s private-sector to be involved in production of military hardware due to fears of military secrets being compromised! By implication, what he’s saying is that India’s private-sector firms are un-trustworthy, that they’re not patriots & are incapable of safeguarding national secrets! One often wonders how such persons even manage to get nominated as MPs!!!

TO AKHIL SURI: India never procured any member of the S-300 family of SAMs.

Mr. Ra 13 said...

Thanx for brilliant replies.

Anonymous said...

http://defenceforumindia.com/india-successfully-tests-slbm-1623
prasun sir plz can u confirm that
this test was of k5 or k15
thanks in advance

rad said...


HI Prasun
The latest request seems to be for anti material rifles.Is it because jokers in trichy OFB were not bothered to make it to specs even after all this time in spite of TOT?. What is the real reason for dumping he nt-20 rifle which is very effective and is one of the few rifles that shoot a 20mm canon cartridge .
The world standard seem to be the Barrett 107 series .50 caliber.What would your choice be . I hear Pak has got a load of them from the US.

Pierre Zorin said...

I wonder if that guy Shiv Aroor wanted to be in the military but did not want the rigours that go with it!The sort of hack journalism he prints and wants his name plastered everywhere is like a 3 year old child like mine building a tower of blocks and wanting his photo taken with it - one of many per week!If anyone has seen a shocking short film called Gaali on youtube, some of the things the woman said she will do to a bloke with whom her auto had a collision ought to be done to this sort of people who just wants publicity regardless of what they print!I am especially referring to his latest brag...

abs said...

@Prasun da
What do you make of the recent comments of Chuck Hagel? Kindly elaborate Washington's strategy/diplomacy in here. And do you see any implications for India in Afghanistan after 2014?

Vikram Guha said...

Hi PrasunDa,

Why is IA still planning to purchase 1000 T 90 since the Russian Army itself is concentrating on developing the Armata tank instead of procuring T 90 ?

Thanks,
Vikram

Mr. Ra 13 said...

By what laws of statistics, Ghapla's have more chances of occurring than the deals.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: There are three types of requirements for sniper rifles. One is for 7.62mm units with telescopic sights. The second one is for 12.7mm units for use as anti-materiel rifles, or for targetting visible anti-personnel & anti-armour mines. The third requirement is for bunker-bursting rifles, for which 20mm units are required. The NTW-20 from DENEL came with 14.5mm & 20mm barrels, meaning it was a dual-use rifle capable of meeting the second & third requirements. The Barret 12.7mm sniper rifle meets only the second requirement. The OFB Trichy-developed ‘Vidhwansak’ was originally envisaged as a multi-calibre weapon, i.e. capable of hosting 12.7mm, 14.5mm & 20mm barrels. However, what was eventually developed was only a 12.7mm anti-materiel rifle. The 14.5mm & 20mm barrel-equipped versions have not yet been developed. At Aero India 2011 I saw the ‘Vidhwansak’ & the reverse-engineered MILKOR 40mm hand-held AGL at the OFB’s booth. Suffice to say that from external looks, both weapons were extremely crude in terms of finishing touches. OFB had then confirmed that R & D work on developing 14.5mm & 20mm anti-materiel rifles is unlikely to yield any satisfactory results. There is another South Africa-based company that can help OFB develop 14.5mm & 20mm rifles, this being: http://truvelo.co.za/armoury/content/welcome-truvelo

To PIERRE ZORIN: This is exactly what happens when one loathes doing one’s homework, background research & shows an uncanny unwillingness to listen to those who are in the know of matters. For instance, take the following statement:
1) “Finmeccanica is likely to be untouchable, as Bofors still is.”
Here, what the writer fails to discern is the fact that back in the late 1980s, it was the Swedish government that failed to file court cases against Bofors & therefore there was no chargesheeting or consequent prosecution. In Finmeccanica’s case, it is the Italian government prosecutors that have filed a case in court along with initial chargesheets. Anyone who cannot differentiate between these two cases is therefore a certifiable moron.

The write-up also misses the woods for the trees by putting all eggs into the AW-101 scandal’s basket. For instance, it is now crystal-clear that Abhishek Verma, through Delaware-based Ganton Ltd and Delhi-based Ganton India was engaged by AgustaWestland to disburse a commission of 8% on fully-equipped AW-119Ke, AW-109P and AW-139 helicopters and 15% on the helicopters’ product support, BUT THESE HELICOPTERS WERE NOT FOR THE INDIAN ARMED FORCES. Instead, all these prospective deals involved the Union Ministry of Home Affairs & the Indian Coast Guard Service (which wants to lease 12 AW-139s & AW-109Ps), Delhi Police (which wants to buy eight AW-119Ke) & the ONGC, which wants to buy more than 20 AW-139s to replace the existing AS.365 Dauphin-2s of 1980s vintage. By the way, has anyone even bothered to ask whether the ‘Integrity Pact’ that is now compulsory for any MoD-inked contract, is also applied without exception for all other procurement contracts inked between foreign OEMs on one hand, & the Union MHA or state MHAs or state-owned entities like ONGC?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

TO ABS: In international diplomacy what’s said is equally important to what’s not been or being said. Consequently, what Chuck Hagel did through his utterances/references to India’s role in Afghanistan referred to two issues: 1) India’s indispensability in terms of maintaining a balance-of-power within Afghanistan after ISAF’s withdrawal in 2014; & 2) maintaining the momentum on internationalising the Baluchistan separatism issue. By doing this, Hagel was clearly warning Pakistan to keep away from the Iran-Pakistan pipeline project, for the popular feeling in Pakistan seems to be that Islamabad can get away with this project for as long as ISAF forces require Pakistan’s land transportation routes for withdrawing from Afghanistan. What the Pakistanis don’t seem to realise is that it is a historically proven fact-of-life that new countries take some 14 days (in case of Bangladesh) or four months (in case of East Timor) to emerge, leave alone a full year. Therefore, if Pakistan does not shy away from the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline & petrochemicals refinery project, all that the US along with its Saudi & Bahraini & UAE proxies (all of whom have no love for a Shia like Zardari) needs to do is further inflame the Baluch separatist cause, fuel further sectarian bloodbaths between the Pakistani Sunnis & Hazara Shias & help embolden Afghanistan to seek a revision of the now-defunct Durand Line (with tacit Indian support) & lo-and-behold, the world could well see the emergence of an independent Baluchistan state inclusive of Gwadar Port, which then can be used on one hand for withdrawing ISAF forces from Afghanistan, & on the other, helping the central Asian states secure a permanent access to the Arabian Sea through Afghanistan. This is the big game that’s now being played by big powers, since it is now a full-blown fact known to all that lashkars like the LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammd & Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have been used since January 6, 2004 by the Pakistan Army as non-state proxies against both Afghanistan & against the separatist Baluch movements. In other words, what this proves is that the Pakistan Army, since the early 1990s, has not had the stomach to wage conventional wars of any type against any of its traditional adversaries & today has been reduced to a trunciated force capable of waging only sub-conventional proxy wars. Furthermore, there’s growing popular resentment against the Army, since the Army retains total control over all of Pakistan’s businesses in both the manufacturing & service sectors (the so-called Deep-State), this in turn leading to terrible nationwide economic misery. The last straw that will likely break the camel’s back could well be Saudi Arabia’s & UAE’s drastic scaling down of subsidised crude oil supplies at the US’ behest, which will paralyse the entire Pakistan Armed Forces (which, as it is, has POL stockpiles to last only a fortnight). This is the WHIRLWIND that Pakistan is likely to reap in the months to come. Therefore, Hagel’s statement & those from Saudi royalties visiting India in the recent past & eulogising about cultural affinities between the Indian subcontinent & the Arabian landmass all ought to be seen in this context.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: This is happening because of the fatal mistakes committed by the NDA government between 1998 & 2004 & by the UPA govt in 2006 & 2009, all of which have entrapped the Indian Army. By 2002, itself, when it had been proven that the Arjun Mk1 was a success story & consequently, production orders for the first batch of 124 Arjun Mk1s were placed, it should have become obvious that there was no need to order additional T-90S MBTs beyond the 310 contracted for in 1999. Instead, at least 600 Arjun Mk1s ought to have been ordered by 2004, followed by 600 Arjun Mk1As by 2009. However, such decisions & directives can only be taken & issued by the MoD by taking the armed forces into confidence & articulating a detailed military-industrial roadmap that calls for not only agreeing upon a pre-planned continuous product improvement plan (in this case, for the Arjun MBT family), but also making funding available for setting up: 1) at least three regional dedicated EME workshops for servicing the Arjun MBT fleet & pre-stockpiling spares consignments for meeting the product-support reqmts for not less than the following 3 years). 2) Three regional crew-training facilities equipped with integrated/interactive driver-and-gunnery crew simulators), & vastly improving the interfaces between the country’s interior & exterior lines of road/railway communications.
Since the MoD clearly did not take up the implementation of the above-mentioned three critical points, the Arjun MBT’s bulk-production programmes were sabotaged internally & the IA consequently had no other choice but to seek additional T-90S MBTs for service-induction.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Mr.RA 13: The mothers of all ‘Ghaflas’ have yet to be exposed & for geeting to the root of those, one has to go back to the 1980s when the then Govt of India had decided to put almost all its eggs into the Soviet basket. What followed next eventually led to India’s financial bankruptsy by 1990. For instance, instead of spending enormous amounts of money in replicating the type-specific training & logistics tails for single-role aircraft like the MiG-23BN, MiG-23MF, MiG-27M & MiG-29B-12, that same amount of money could have been much better-spent on acquiring only a large fleet of some 250 Mirage 2000H/THs, which by 2000 could have easily been upgraded to Mirage 2000-5 standards (something the IAF will receive only later this decade). At least one former CAS of the IAF, ACM (ret’d) A Y Tipnis came very close to spilling the beans in July 1999 when he officially stated that left to himself, he would much rather have an all-MRCA fleet instead of role-specific combat aircraft. Another similar ‘ghafla’ involves the iomportation in the 1980s of two different types of diesel-electric submarines (SSK)—Class 209/Type 1500 from HDW of Germany & Type 877EKM/Kilo from the former USSR—a feat which no self-respecting navy will dare undertake. These two big-time ‘ghaflas’ have yet to be exposed, but will eventually be, since the rot as far as military procurements go, all began from there. In more recent times, while everyone now knows that Abhishek Verma was the proxy used by the UPA govt for parking $410 million in the US after inking the deal for six Scorpene SSKs, what still remains clouded in secrecy is the slush-money paid by the French to the previous NDA government between 2001 & 2004 in order to get the Scorpene SSK programme up & running. At that time, there were grand plans conceived for quid pro quos: a group of NDA ministers had planned to acquire ATR-42s & ATR-72s in large numbers for commercial aviation (which was consequently done by Jet Airways & Kingfisher) as well as for the Indian Navy & Coast Guard & for the IAF (for replacing the HS-748 Avros). And as the related quid pro quo for the concurrent selection of Scorpene SSK, slush-money was to be paid at an overseas tax heaven & this would in turn end up in India as the ‘washed-up legal’ investment required for setting up a sprawling MRO facility in Nagpur for conducting depot-level overhauls of all India-registered ATR-42s & ATR-72s. A Bengaluru-based aviation services company was also selected for receiving the ‘washed-up’ money & using it to establish the MRO facility. However, by mid-2004 the NDA govt fell & such plans could never be implemented in full, but at least US$100 million is believed to have changed hands.

rad said...


HI Prasun
In continuation of your para that says that saudi and india have some ancient links.-As an amateur archaeology enthusiast i have learnt that before the advent of islam, hinduism was the religion that was prevalent in saudi, many will be surprised, You will notice that islam bans idol worship , it is precisely this religion that the prophet wanted to destroy.you will notice that there is no mention in saudi history about religion or culture before the advent of islam 1500 years ago . They dont want to admit the fact of history.Same for maldives , it was a thriving Hindu and budhist culture , still there are budhist stupas at south most islands in maldives that are covered up or destroyed ,and they dont acknowledge the fact . The same for malaysia , indonesia , You would know better living that side for a long time .

raw13 said...

Have a read of this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21601120

US wants a role in CARs but it doesn't want to bleed PERIOD

Can India provide any of that security? Hell no, it can't even protect its diplomats.

In the medium term IP will happen regardless. In the short term if it is delayed, it means its replacement will be provided. Its a game of poker.

Zardari a shia, only if you are a member of PML-N :-). Zardari comes from a balouch tribe who are all sunni. Infact most of the elite who were shia have been lets say for a better word becoming Bralvi...openly.

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa , outstanding explanation as usual , many thanx.

Regarding the Chuck Hagel controversy I think he subconsciously stated something that the US is unwilling to speak about openly . The US does consider India to be a threat . CIA chief Leon Panetta had said not once, not twice but thrice that India is a potential threat . I found one of the links

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-11-19/news/30419476_1_military-threat-defence-secretary-china-and-india

A professor of the Lowe Institute had said that while the USA's Darwin base is meant to counter CHina , the Perth military base is unmistakably designed to counter India.

Regards,
Vikram

Vikram Guha said...

I was referring to the Loe Institute in Australia . Sorry I left out that part .

-Vikram

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlUGBnkBy7w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GkK2A1u7lw
sir, i watched these vids, but failed to understand if its 100% true or simply due to these tactical mistakes, that each of underlined invasion failed.
And the man got a story for audience.

sudip said...

prasunji - u said earlier that agni 3 evolved into agni 5 and a5 weighs only 22tons (missile only) 50ton whole system ....... but agni 5 volm is around 50m3 .... how can it weigh less than 50tons ..... and whatz about cansister trailer development.

Anonymous said...

@raw13
Thanks for enlightening us with following-
1. Really, it was news to me that your Grand Dad was Chinese
2. With this it is implied that your Chinese Sunni tribe will be killing everybody from non-Chinese Sunni tribe. Poor Arabic Sunnis they arrived late to the party and now they suffer your wrath.
3. Great to learn that according to you all Mongols are Chinese. I am ok with this revelation of yours , but probably this will be a body blow to your Chinese Grand Dad, who would be wondering why the heck construct this Great Wall if all Mongols were Chinese in first place.
4. Lastly, it was good to see wikipedia included as approved reference in your Madrasa curriculum.

Ni Hao raw13!!!

Anonymous said...

Sir,
Could you throw some light on the mystery surrounding the death of then PM Lal Bahadur Shastri on foreign soil. Why is the GOI still with holding documents surrounding his death from RTI applications. Do you have any insight on this coverup.

KSingh said...

Prasun,

What HMDS will be used on the LCH?

Anonymous said...

sir,
Iran-Pakistan pipeline construction will begin from 11th March, it is official.
1.Did India miss the bus.
2. Taking into consideration that America will not impose any sanction till 2014(troops withdrawal from Afghanistan), what will be the final outcome.
3. what is the chance that China will jump into the project.
4. Will it not profitable for India-China-Pakistan make use of this pipeline.
Hope you reply.

Heberian said...

@raw13 -

The popular narrative and history text books in Pakistan are not a source of truth or knowledge, as many of the intelligent people in your country know, acknowledge and accept.

But yeah, feel free to believe whatever gets your goat.

Akhil Suri said...

Hi Prasun ,

Credible news outlets are reporting that once again hundreds of Hindus are being attacked and subsequently killed in Bangladesh by Islamic radicals . Unfortunately Indian media is blanking out this part I guess in the name of secularism .

Do you think that these recent attacks will lead to a humanatarian & security crisis for India ?

-Akhil

Unknown said...

Prasun,

With TEXTRON now working with the IAF in intergrating the CBU-105 SFW on the JAGUAR, do you see any scope/likilihood of the IAF exppanding the type of a/c they fit this weapon to like the MKI,MIG-29UPG, M2K and later Rafale and LCA?

It is a deadly weapon and the Jaguar is a great a/c but I feel that a MKI-CBU-105 partnership is far more effective and deadly.


Also the Jags have,what, 15 years of life left in them? I'm guessing these munitions aren't being procured for a short 15 year stint in the IAF so at some point the IAF will have to have another one of its fighters integrated with this weapon, no?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Not exactly Hinduism in Arabia, but idol worship was prevalent there as well as in ancient Egypt. Even during the Vedic era idol worship was not prevalent & Islam only followed suit. Inside the Ka’aba in Mecca all those idols that were worshipped in Arabia before the arrival of the Holy Prophet are still there. Only Lawrence of Arabia & the late Sir Richard Burton are the two known non-Muslims whop are known to have gained entry inside the Ka’aba & seen for themselves what kind of idols are stored inside.
As for the Indian Ocean littorals within the Indian Ocean region, one still finds monuments build during the Buddhist era & the Hindu eras before that in places like the Maldives. Similar structures are there in northern peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra & Java, all of which have some form of connection—in archaeological terms—with Kumari Kandam (see: http://mystiquearth.blogspot.in/2009/01/kumari-kandam-sunken-land-mass-from.html).
In both Maldives & Malaysia, one can only be a Maldivian citizen & member of the Malay race if one is also a Muslim, i.e. non-Muslims cannot be Maldivian citizens or members of the Malay race. However, in Indonesia, no such distinctions are made, i.e. an Indonesian Malay can be a Muslim, Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, pagan, etc. Consequently, the Indonesians can justifiably be seen as being far more tolerant & sincretic both from a cultural & religious standpoint.

To RAW13: No one with common-sense wants to bleed, period. And which of the CARs has ever asked for security provision from anyone? On the other hand, the CARs are perfectly capable of handling their own internal affairs & that’s why all the working cadres of non-state actors like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan are now located in safe havens inside Pakistan’s FATA & are wreaking havoc upon the Pakistan Army, which for all intents & purposes can’t even protect its own.

To VIKRAM GUHA: As a universal norm, any democracy that is a status-quo power will automatically abhor a non-status quo or revisionist power. Consequently, the US & its EU allies all abhorred the former USSR & presently, look at China with deep suspicion. India being a status quo state, never had any fundamental disputes with any other functional democracy. As for Perth & Darwin, their locations are ideal for force projection towards two distinct geographic region: 1) Perth is nearest to potential crisis zones in either in the southern Indian Ocean & within the Indonesian archipelago. 2) Darwin on the other hand is ideal for launching military intervention operations in the Sea of Japan & East China Sea.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@10.15PM: The documentaries are slightly off-the-mark since their serve to romanticise the average Afghani rather than taking an objective view. For instance, the question of Alexander the Great being unable to conquer doesn’t even arise since Afghanistan was born as a country in only 1747 under Ahmed Shah Abdali. Secondly, the documentaries’ scriptwriters did not bother to document how exactly Maharaja Ranjit Singh had managed to domesticate the Pathan & Pashtun warlords & chieftains of present-day FATA & North-West Frontier Province. Thirdly, civilised existence within Afghanistan had traditionally thrived in areas north of the Kabul River, while the areas south of it were unfit for human habitation due to lack of irrigable land & sources of water. As a consequence of this, those tribals who lived in such areas that stretched all the way to the Makran coastline never interacted with successive civilizations located in either India or Persia & therefore led a secluded existence in which the cheapest commodity was human life, & the greatest business was sectarian conflict (which one can today see in FATA). The British East India Company never bothered to factor in all such points in its appreciation prior to engaging in positional warfare over mountainous terrain & hence had to pay a heavy price. In short, both the grand strategy as well as on-the-ground battlefield tactics were based on totally flawed foundations. If only the Brits had studied & learnt from the military campaigns of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, they perhaps would have been able to prevail.

To SUDIP: Agni-3 & Agni-5 belong to two totally different generations. Agni-3 used technologies of the 1980s while Agni-5 uses technologies at least a decade old but still 20 years ahead of what the Agni-3 made use of. That’s the main difference & one can see it in areas like airframe structure, propulsion system & inertial navigation/terminal guidance systems.

To Anon@12.51AM: I’m not aware of any specific cover-up. What I know about is that the PM was under severe psychological stress after his wife had told him on the phone that the people of India would never forgive him for surrendering away India’s hard-won gains during the 1965 war, like the Haji Pir Pass. This factor could well have been the reason why the PM suffered a fatal heart-attack.

To KSINGH: JedEyes HMDS from ELBIT Systems.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@9.58AM: 1) India has more than enough offshore gas reserves in & around the Andaman & Nicobar islands to last for another 50 years at least & therefore importing gas from iran makes no sense at all. 2) I already gave a scenario above about what can well happen. Withdrawal of ISAF personnel does not require a transit route via Pakistan, while all the non-critical in-theatre hardware can always be distributed among various Central Asian Republics as security assistance. Stores like live ammunition can always be airlifted. Shipping out of such stuff by road is an extremely dangerous affair since more than 10,000 containers have already been stolen by Pakistan-sponsored non-state actors like the Taliban & LEJ from Karachi. China is far more interested in obtaining gas from the Central Asian Republics & not from Iran.

To HEBERIAN: Even the so-called educated in Pakistan, like former Army Generals, are now saying on one hand that non-state actors like the TTP are not Talibans but Afghanistan-, US- & India-sponsored terrorists, & on the other claiming that the TTP’s cadres are only those Pashtuns from FATA who have suffered grievous losses due to US carpet-bombing during the onset of OP Enduring Freedom & later from US drone-strikes & from the PAF’s air-strikes. In other words, no credible explanations, only ideological fumbling aimed at looking for scapegoats instead of addressing the moot point: why over the past 65 years was no attempt made to make FATA into a province which could be governed according to the tenets of Pakistan’s constitution? Why was FATA left out of the country’s constitutional ambit? Why has no attempt been made as yet to create an all-inclusive society within FATA & why has it been condemned to remain forever as a lawless gangland?

To AKHIL SURI: These are normal occurrences in Bangladesh, but don’t forget that these JeI militants are the original Bihari Razakars of pre-independent India. There’s no news blackout within India, but awareness within India of such developments is quite low & therefore one doesn’t see the ‘desi’ journalists rushing over to Dhaka to cover such events in the way they did by going to Sri Lanka, or Egypt or Libya. If you go to the areas along the Bangladesh-WB border now, everyday you will come across a couple of families from Bangladesh seeking asylum as refugees in India. But this will not spiral out of control for sure this time.

To UNKNOWN: Platforms like the Jaguar IS, MiG-29UPG & Tejas Mk1 will be ideal carriers of CBU-105 SFWs. Mirage 2000UPG & Rafale will be employed for standoff attacks with PGMs like Spice 2000, LGBs & AASMs. MiG-27UPGs armed with BAP-100s & LGBs are employed for runway destruction missions.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Watch these:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLqqHtH0NH8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kfBbNMNTcA

Akhil Suri said...

Hi Prasun,

Very interesting insights , thanks for sharing . I have a couple of questions related to this :

1) The person awarded the death sentence is not a Bihari razakar so there are Islamic radicals among Bengali speaking groups as well ..correct ?

2) Why is Khaleda Zia supporting Islamic radicals ?

3) Has Islamic extremists spread to West Bengal as well ? I was in Calcutta in Dec 92 during the Babri Masjid issue and during that time a number of Hindus were killed in Calcutta & Muslim dominated areas of Bengal .

Thanks,
Akhil

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKHIL SURI: They are mostly descendents of the Bihari Razakars who can speak Bengali fluently. In addition, the Bangladeshi Bengali-Muslims hailing from Noakhali are the most hated within Bangladesh till this day for their sympathetic attitude towards their erstwhile West Pakistani masters & their bitter hostility against the US. Ask any average Bangladeshi (either residing in Bangladesh or working as an expatriate worker anywhere else in the world) what he/she thinks about those hailing from Noakhali & he/she will speak out about the untrustworthy nature of those hailing from Noakhali. Begum Khaleda Zia of BNP is today totally toothless ever since she lost power about five years ago & her eldesh son Tareq Zia was whacked so badly by the then interim Govt that he today lives as a virtual vegetable in the US & requires serious medical treatment. Consequently, the BNP today is just a rabble-rouser & all its statements about the JEI is nothing but pre-poll posturing, since it is a given that the BNP will lose the next general elections & this is why it is talking about boycotting the polls. This is where India can step in to both convince & finance the Jatiyo Party led by Gen (ret’d) H M Ershad to contest the forthcoming general elections just for the sake of being seen to oppose the Awami league so that the world can be convinced that despite the BNP boycotting the polls, the elections are not a sham & are seen to be of a competitive nature (despite the fact that the Awami League & Jatiyo Party have in the past supported one another in a coalition.
Extremism of all hues & shades will be present anywhere in India for as long as the state’s writ is not seen to be running & lies unimposed for the sake of vote-bank politics. If & when the rule of law is shown to be prevailing without fear or favour, then all forms of extremism will disappear overnight. This is exactly how the Naxalbari problem was crushed & eliminated by WB’s State Police (which was then given a free reign to do so with zero political meddling) within a mere six months after the 1971 India-Pakistan war. Unfortunately, due to a state of financial bankruptsy prevailing in WB following 34 years of rule by the Left Front, no upright civil servant, be it from IAS or IPS cadre, is willing to be posted within WB, since any such posting is viewed as a retrograde step career-wise. Therefore, what one today has within WB are far below-average civil servants running the state bureaucracy, & the problem is compounded by a state govt that has no financial wherewithal for initiating transformative policies in any sector.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKHIL SURI: The only good news (for WB) is that after the formal demarcation of the permanent borders of Bangladesh & India later this year, WB will be permitted to legally export cattle to Bangladesh & hopefully some export revenues will then start flowing into WB’s coffers. Presently, it is an open secret cattle from throughout the north Indian cow-belt are being sold & smuggled on a daily basis via WB to across-the-border, & the only financial beneficiaries of this illicit business are the various BSF checkposts, with the WB exchequer being the nett loser. Hopefully, matters will take a turn for the better starting later this year.

Anonymous said...

sir , u mean to say that bsf men are bribed to smuggle cattle?

KSingh said...

Prasun,

AFAIK the JedEYE HMDS is still not fully-operational. Will this HMDS really be on the LCH? Is there any offical news of this?


And what considerations where made in selecting the JedEYE over,say, the TOPOWL HMDS?


+ do you think the QuadEye NVGs will be entering Indian service anytime soon?

Mr. Ra 13 said...

Thanx! I think India should have gone for more of Mirage-2000 instead of the Mig-23 and Mig-27. But the purchase of Mig-29 should be OK. If not so, then why.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSINGH: Products like HMDS don’t require to be declared operational in order for their success to be proven, but need to be flight-qualified. On the LCH, since the principal fire-control sensor is the ELBIT Systems supplied & BEL-assembled COMPASS, the only compatible HMDS that can be integrated with it in a risk-free manner is the JedEYE, according to HALBIT Avionics officials at Aero India 2013. TopOWL on the other hand interfaces with THALES-made sensors like EuroFLIR. As for NVGs, the ELBIT Systems-built Anvis NVG is operational with the aircrew of Dhruv Mk3/4 & Mi-17V-5.

To Mr.RA 13: MiG-29B-12 at the time of acquisition was a single-role air superiority aircraft that could detect & track & engage only 1 airborne target at a time. Secondly, it was not equipped with fly-by-wire flight-control system (FBW-FCS) or FADEC for its RD-33 engines. Lack of the latter led to several air crashes due to faulty fuel-pumps that were maintenance-intensive in any case. At a time when the IAF was already acquiring MRCAs like Mirage 2000H/TH that came equipped with FBW-FCS & FADEC, concurrently acquiring combat aircraft platforms (like MiG-23MF & MiG-29) without FBW-FCS & FADEC & without multiple target detection/track multi-mode radars made no sense at all. Finally, the MiG-29B-12s delivered to the IAF had atrocious QC/QA at the manufacturing-level, with tools like spanners (left over by errant shopfloor technicians of MiG-MAPO) being discovered within the airframes when they were first stripped & disassembled at the IAF’s 11 BRD in Nashik during their post-1,000-hour inspection schedules. Such QC/QA lapses are unheard of when it comes to Western combat aircraft production practices. In HAL’s case too there have been documented instances of improper sanitisation/cleansing of some sections of the Ardiden-1H/Shakti engines during their final-assembly stage, all of which can only be classified as acts of criminal negligence on the OEM’s part.

Akhil Suri said...

Thanks Prasun .

I think the electorate in Bengal is at fault . For 34 years they gave a blank cheque to the Left Front who were basically a parasite in society and won elections coz they allowed illegal Bangladeshi Muslims to vote for them .

I don't understand why Bengalis did this injustice to themselves . It's not that the govt. here in Himachal does a great job either but since the electorate keeps on changing Govts. every electon the parties are kept on their toes.

BTW - The BSF smuggles not just cattle but also arms and contrabrands into India from Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Thanks,
Akhil

abs said...

@Prasunda
Thanks for the very enlightening views on Bangladesh. I have for one spoken with a few Bangladeshis and everytime they have spoken very highly of India. Do you think the BNP is on a state of decline with stronger democracy emerging in Bangladesh and with that the Bangladesh's Anti India propaganda at the higher levels?

rad said...

HI Prasun
Having jaguars and mig-27 deliver cbu-107 sfw is suicidal. In Today batle field i dont think it would be wise to send ac to over fly tank formations and drop cbu-105s .They would be shot out of the sky with anza`s , mistral and stingers, and 35 mm canon fire. More over spada 2000 missiles are being inducted as well.In my opinion it is useless.
We have to get add on gliding kits to deliver them at a stand of range , please comment.

Sujoy Majumdar said...

Hi PrasunDa,

Great videos.

Just 1 qs in this regard .

If these stories of alien space crafts found on the Moon are indeed true & NASA is hiding facts then why didn't the other space powers like Russia , EU and CHina send in their own rockets/astronauts to investigate.

Thanks,
Sujoy

Heberian said...

@ Prasun :

Thank you for explaining that. Yes, what you said is the de facto truth as is being fabricated now in Pakistan. Never take responsibility, always find or manufacture a convenient scapegoat.. is the state policy and the national psyche. Oh well.

I was trying to point out to raw13 that these days a growing majority of the educated in Pakistan at least dont claim claim Arab/Persian/ Central Asian roots.. and crap about "1 of the Pure being equal to 10 of us South Asians"..

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Yes, that would have been the case had Pakistan, for example, possessed the same deployment density of AAA assets as that of China. But that is not the case as yet & will not be for quite some time to come. Spada 2000s as well as the 35mm cannons in Pakistan are for base air-defence & are not land-mobile. Glide-kits will make sense only if one has access to precision Py-codes for GPS-aided navigation, a scenario that will become a reality ONLY AFTER the IRNSS constellation is fully deployed by 2017.

By the way, here’s something more to wet your archaeological taste-buds: http://news.yahoo.com/ancient-micro-continent-found-under-indian-ocean-194239722.html

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Here’s another one that could blow your mind: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMBUcd6MX-I

The US & Russia did send one joint moon exploration mission, this being the Apollo 20 mission, whose existence is still denied. Watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnFJutgjmk8

Countries like India & China are definitely interested in getting into the game as well & finding out the truth for themselves. Interestingly, ISRO too has to date released only black-and-white photos of the moon’s surface. Guess it too has been ‘requested’ by the US to keep a tight lid on certain sensitive matters.

To HEBERIAN: VMT. Discerning & well-travelled Pakistanis will never claim Arab/Persian/ Central Asian/Turkish/Afghan roots for they understand very clearly that all those kings & emperors ranging from Mahmud of Ghazni right down to Bahadur Shah Zafar were ‘foreigners’ and not ‘native Muslims’. The latter could only rise to the level of Sultans or Nawabs or Nizams, never beyond that.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKHIL SURI: As per my assessment, there was never a significant influx of Bangladeshi Muslims of a permanent nature into WB. The main reason why the Left Front continued to win since the mid-1970s was due to the urgent need for land reforms which only the Left front succeeded in implementing with a great degree of success. Hence, the majority of rural vote-banks always had the final say. Things would have changed by the year 2000 or even 2005, but there were massive riggings both these times. But overall, yes, the WB electorate should have gotten rid of the Left front by the 1990s itself & adopted the formula of either HP or TN in which one party is not allowed to be in power for more than 1 term.
As regards arms smuggling across-the-border, the mega-mall or hypermarket for such cash-in-delivery transactions is Dimapur. Almost all the arms & ammo are brought in from northern & northeastern Myanmar by arms traders located at Dimapur in Nagaland & Ruili in Myanmar. If you were to take just one look at the India-Myanmar border, you will realise how porous it is & what complicates matters most there is the near-total absence of transportation infrastructure on the Indian side, & it is because of this that no CAPF can even dream about extended deployments for border domination in such areas. And what is far worse is that none of the ‘desi’ TV broadcast news channels have to date even bothered to visit such areas to document such a pathetic state of affairs over the past several decades after independence. The only documentary I’ve seen thus far about such areas was a BBC travelogue filmed at least a decade ago.

To ABS: VMT. Any discerning Bangladeshi will say that he/she believes in the concept of USI or United States of India, under which Bangladesh is part of an Indian confederation. Any anti-India streak within a Bangladeshi is born out of a sense of angst & despondency, i.e. they would have liked India to adopt a pro-active approach towards Dhaka after 1971, instead of adopting a benign approach. Had this happened, then the border demarcation process would have been completed by 1973 itself & the India-Bangladesh border would have become a ‘soft border’ for facilitating regional trade & commerce for mutual benefit. Regretably, it was India’s retrograde policies that did the exact opposite, i.e. erecting barbed-wire fences on all three sides & boxing-in that country, which in turn gave rise to a national siege mentality that was inherently hostile towards India. As it is Bangladesh was surrounded on all three sides by India & had only a narrow land-corridor with a country like Myanmar that itself was isolationist till recently. So you can well imagine what the all-round border-fencing by India did to the Bangladeshi psyche. Had India embraced Bangladesh in the 1970s or even 1980s in the same way that India embraced Sri Lanka in the 1990s, then the Bangladeshi economy would have been intertwined with that of India by now & would have by now been a ‘mini-India’ for all intents & purposes. It is still not too late to reverse India’s retrograde policies of the past.

Akhil Suri said...

Hi Prasun,

Appreciate your assessment of the ground situation in Bengal but isn't it true that the % of Hindus in Bangladesh has gone down from 24% in 1947 to 9% in 2011 whereas the population of Muslims in Bengal has gone up from 15% in 1947 to 30 % in 2011 ?

I think the situation in Bangladesh can be understood . The United Nations report said that in 1971 alone more than 95% of people killed were Hindus , a large majority were converted to Islam and a few fled to India and the West .

Thanks,
Akhil

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKHIL SURI: Yes, the figures are correct & apply to the present-day resident population of WB. But what must also be factored in is the fact that a large number of non-Muslim Bengalis have migrated to other parts of India since the mid-1970s in search of a better future, whereas the Muslims of WB have been unable to do so due to their subsistence living standards in rural parts of the state. The quantum of this category of WB’s populace will increase further later this year after the exchange of present-day enclaves on both sides of the border is formalised. But like I stated yesterday, migration of Hindu Bangladeshis to India takes place through WB even today in dribs & drabs, these being the relatives of those who are already Indian citizens.

Sujoy Majumdar said...

PrasunDa , really blew my mind . Don't know how far these stories are true . Heart says yes , brain says no.

BTW - Just had one question about the MIG 29UPG .

Can the MIG 29UPG be upgraded to MIG 35 standards in terms of EW systems , weaponry , engines etc .

Thank You

Sujoy

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: The brain says NO because the brain has been conditioned since birth to perceive & interpret the world as per the existing laws of quantum physics & quantum mechanics. On the other hand, what you’ve seen is based on the physics of ‘parallel universe’, which we humans are still trying to figure out & the closest that we’ve come thus far is string-theory & plasma physics. Do browse through these:

http://www.gravitywarpdrive.com/Element_115.htm

&

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread61346/pg1

The MiG-29UPG already incorporates several features of the MiG-35, like the Klimov RD-33-3 turbofans. Furthermore, the ELT-568 AESA-based active jammers are also in, as are the extra internal fuel tanks in the ‘hump’ behind the cockpit, both of which do not figure on the MiG-35. In a way, therefore, the MiG-29UPG is better than the MiG-35 is some respects & the only drawback is the MiG-29UPG’s Phazotron-built Zhuk-M2E mechanically-scanning multi-mode radar, which is inferior to the Zhuk-AE AESA-MMR on the MiG-35. Still can’t figure out why the hell the IAF opted for the Zhuk-M2E instead of the Zhuk-AE, which was available since 2007.

Mr. Ra 13 said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjubM76XuJA

With the tikiya/tikuli/bindi/dot over her forehead, someone wanted to certify that she was a Vaidic/Puranic Indian.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR & Mr.RA 13: Here’s more interesting & revealing evidence:

Hidden Photos of NASA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ngvIP0Za9M

Crop Circle Mystery Solved: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtUZBwTvOV8

Secrets of Pyramids: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mk1SLGVBs_8

Anonymous said...

Sir some people are saying that human cosmonauts have never landed on Moon. Is that true?

Are the US lunar missions a bluff? Why hasn't any other nation's cosmonauts landed on Moon since then??

KSingh said...

Prasun,

Will the MIG-29UPGs of the IAF use the TOPSIGHT HMDS as on the IN's MIG-29Ks? I had heard this was the case but all recent pics show this particular tech being omitted and just regular hemlets in use.


Also do you have idea whether the annual joint US-India SOF exercise names "VAJRA PRAHAR" took place in 2012? It was meant to take place at the IA's SF school in NIHAN but to date not a single picture/report has emerged of this exercise even taking place.

KSingh said...

Prasun,

Check this out:

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/choppergate-raises-question-marks-over-dassaults-reentry-into-mmrca/1082482/0



Another case of yellow desi media??


Will these allegations add even more time to the signing of the Rafale deal? What are we looking at now? 2014??!!



These fuckers are making India look like a flip-flopping bunch of amateurs to the rest if the world. What should take 7-8 months elsewhere takes 18+ months in India and even then the road is littered with hurdles and uncertainty is a given. Every turn seems to herald yet more scandal and stories for the media.



What is wrong with he Indian media? Are there no decent journo schools in India??!!

Kshitiz Kumar said...

1.Are the IAF’s IACCCS & the Army’s ADC & RS incompatible or the issue is resolved

Sujoy Majumdar said...

Hi Prasun Da,

You are absolutely right about why the brain says NO . Again, another great video . Many thanks for sharing.

Regarding the situation in West Bengal I have a few comments to make :

1) In my opinion the migration of Muslims from Bangladesh is not helping anyone in Bengal as resources do not increase with increase in migrants .

2) The CPM practiced political & economic alienation of Bengal from India to suit their vested interest. The growth of Bangladeshi Muslims will complete this process of alienation just like the unbridled growth of the Church in the North East .

3)The districts of Assam bordering Bengal like Dhubri have been completely taken over by Bangladeshi Muslims & as you will remember that a number of Hindus were killed during the Babri Masjid agitation in these border areas of Bengal stretching all the way to NJP & Malda.

4)The attack on the American center in Kolkata and the 2007 Hyderabad bomb blasts were carried out by Bangladeshi Muslims. Some bigoted journalists like Arnab Goswami have found out a "pan Bengali" angle to all this , implying that we Bengali Hindus have no problems with illegal Bangladeshi Muslims who infiltrate India & subsequently carry out terror attacks .

5) The TMC today just like the CPM realizes that they can keep on winning elections just by pandering to these illegal Muslims and will therefore help to increase their "illegal" numbers in the days to come.The CPM lost the last election because the Muslim community was agitated by incidents that they thought were directed against them & voted against the CPM . Therefore, there will be no development in Bengal even under Mamata since all that the parties need to do is patronize the Muslims , most of whom are illegal immigrants anyways.

Very sorry for the long posts.

Thanks,
Sujoy

Mr. Ra 13 said...

All this is very unfortunate for a state for which the popular saying was: What Bengal thinks today, India will think tomorrow.

These are the complex turns and twists of the destiny and history.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@5.51AM: Of course astronauts & cosmonauts landed on the moon from the Apollo 9 till Apollo 20 missions between 1969 & 1972. That such missions did not continue after 1972 was probably because earthlings were warned against doing so.

To KSINGH: No, the MiG-29UPGs still use the very same Sura-M HMDS of Russian origin. The joint India-US Army SOF exercise was conducted but without any publicity. The latest example of ‘desi’ yellow journalism can be seen here: http://www.indianexpress.com/news/chopper-firm-signed-3-deals-with-middlemen/1083159/0

Here are the facts:
1) The Rafale was never disqualified by the IAF. Had it been, then it would not have been subjected to in-country test-flights, which itself cost Dassault Aviation more than US$2 million to stage & conduct.
2) Within any armed services HQs in India, it is not the service chief that vets & approves all capital expenditure/product acquisition deals, but the vice-chief. This is known to everyone except to the bloody moronic ‘desi’ journalists. The armed services chief is only the administrative head of his service HQ & exercises command over his regional commands & those directorates within the HQ & acts as his service’s senior-most liaison with the civilian component of the MoD & the Govt of India. Therefore, in case of the IAF, all decisions regarding product procurements are supervised & approved by the Vice-Chief of the Air Staff (VCAS) & never by the CAS. Consequently, only a moron will bother to waste money & time to ingratiate himself/herself with the CAS of the IAF. That is precisely the reason why all the ex-IAF Chiefs are unanimously claiming that ACM S P Tyagi is being framed by the Italians.

To KSHITIZ KUMAR: The issue is in the process of being resolved.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: In my view, the influx of illegal Muslim migrants is not what it is made out to be at present, although it is true that during the years of Left Front rule such migration was encouraged, especially from the ‘chit-mahals’. There is also no conclusive evidence to date to prove that terrorists from Bangladesh have played widespread havoc inside India. The Hyderabad bomb-blasts are still on-going in terms of investigations & no formal end-state has been reached. Also, I don’t believe that ‘religion’ is the principal reason behind WB’s or the North East’s continued state of underdevelopment. For it is the responsibility of the Govt of India to ensure all-round development, instead of resorting to vindictive politicisation that the Congress-ruled Centre has frequently engaged in with states with non-Congress govts in power. If road/rail/academic/health infrastructure has not been developed to the extent it should have been in the North East to date, one cannot blame religion for this state of affairs. Here’s another example of the Centre’s mismanagement of national security: it should have been the BSF that should have been the principal CAPF responsible for guarding the country’s borders with Myanmar. Instead, till today, it is the Assam Rifles, which is not answerable to the Union MHA as it is a counter-insurgency warfighting force & not a border defence force. Unless such mismanaged administrative deficiencies (& there are several more of them) are put right, the North East will continue to simmer.

To Mr.RA 13: Not just WB. Not the entire North East as well, as I’ve highlighted above.

Anonymous said...

Prasun, EuroFLIR is made by Sagem not Thales

Kshitiz Kumar said...

1.sir what happened to DRDO dvlopd HULC.do u think it is a viable option and a good innovation

2.what is the status of arihant,is the k4 on it a good detterant,very low range if u ask me?

3.what avenger system u were talkig about is it an/tpq avenger(the one with stinger on hmvvv)?

4.what is the status of Prahaar?

Kshitiz Kumar said...

4.Is this report true there goes another opurtunity
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2011/05/bae-systems-rethinks-decisions-on.html

what is its status now?

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa , did you read this story

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2013-03-01/russia-india-describe-next-gen-fighter-plans

It seems the Indian PAKFA will share the same airframe as the Russian PAKFA . In other words it is not going to be as stealthy as the F 22 because the Russian concept is not design a fighter that is a hunter killer . In other words it is going to kill other stealth aircrafts . India needs a stealth aircraft that can penetrate dense Air defense that China has & unfortunately will not be able to do so if the PAKFA 's airframe is not made more stealthy .

Thank You
Vikram

financeblogger said...

http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=910

Regarding the new Chinese design of submarine and frigate mentioned in the above link, a kind request to elaborate on the same.

Anonymous said...

Is a sanctioned 40 squadron or 800 fighter strength enough to counter both paki and chinese fronts?
Has the IAF ever thought of increasing the squadron strength to 60 or 1200 fighters?
Is the policy of minimum deterrence correct or policy of maximum deterrence should be followed?

Kshitiz Kumar said...

hey prasun looks like they are starting to take advice of urs
here is latest development in semiconductor fabrication

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/info-tech/article2128442.ece
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-02-16/infrastructure/37133001_1_iesa-s-vision-summit-import-bill-electronics

KSingh said...

Prasun,

Look at these:

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/government-and-policy/mirage-planes-upgraded-at-rs-167-cr-per-aircraft-in-2011-govt/article4475043.ece


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/High-cost-of-Mirage-2000-upgrade-raises-eyebrows/articleshow/18804336.cms



Why suddenly the interest in the M2K deal? Is this paid news by EADS on behalf of their failed Typhoon bid?



And just in simple terms,as a rebuttle, how would you justify the enourmous expenditure on old M2Ks whol will be around for not more than 15-20 more years over,say, spending the same money on 1-2 SQDs of brand spanking new MKIs?




Also do you have any idea when the Indian "SOCOM"(SF COMMAND) and the other 2 tri-service command son the table, will be raised or even cleared?

ram kumar said...

hello sir,
1. whats ur take on this year indian defence budget..?
2. Does india has jdam or ljdam sort of kit.. In inventory?
3.latest developements on lch , lca, ijt 36 and arjun mk 2 fronts?

Anonymous said...

In Feb, there were couple of drone strikes in Pakistan. NYT says, Americans did not do.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/05/world/asia/us-disavows-2-drone-strikes-over-pakistan.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&hp&

Pakistan says, Americans did that.
http://dawn.com/2013/03/05/pakistan-army-rejects-nyt-report-on-drone-strikes/
Who is correct and who is wrong?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@12.20PM: Correct. VMT.

To KSHITIZ KUMAR@3.30PM: Utter waste of taxpayer’s money, since the MoD has already funded OFB’s project to develop the 155mm/45-cal towed howitzer & has also authorised the DRDO to develop a homegrown 155mm/52-cal ATAGS. So why bother to import towed 155mm/52-cal howtzers at all? This is a classic example of arming without aiming.

To VIKRAM GUHA: The devil always lurks within the detail. Yes, the FGFA & PAK-FA will both share the same airframe design, but not the AIRFRAME STRUCTURE. FGFA will have much greater composites-built airframe structures than PAK-FA. Cockpit & mission avionics suites too will be different in varying degrees. The three FGFA prototypes will clearly demonstrate this when compared with the eight planned PAK-FA prototypes. Furthermore, stealth techniques & technologies already developed in Russia have not yet made their presence in a visible sense as yet. Wait for the final three prototypes of PAK-FA & the three FGFA prototypes to reveal all such techniques & technologies.

To FINANCEBLOGGER: The given weblink lists out all the design & performance parameters that are self-explanatory. I hardly need to add anything more to them.

To Anon@5.33PM: The sanctioned strength is more than enough.

To KSHITIZ KUMAR@8.57PM: The process should have begun by the late 1990s. It is too late now.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSINGH: To those interested & of a discerning nature, it is evident that what’s due to go on board the Mirage 2000UPGs is much more than what has been officially stated thus far by Dassault Aviation & THALES, i.e. 48 Mirage 2000UPGs will be nuclear-hardened (i.e. equipped with EMP-resistant stuff) since it is this fleet that will be tasked to deliver the supersonic nuclear-armed LRCMs. On the other hand, for the nuclear-armed Nirbhay ALCM, use will be made of 48 specially configured EMP-hardened units of the projected Super Su-30MKIs.
And talking of projected tri-services commands, they are still decades away. For the unpalatable treuth is that neither the MoD nor the armed services have tri-services mindsets as yet. If they had, then by now India would have had a tri-services military museum, a tri-services war memorial, a tri-services National Defence University, a Chief of Defence Staff & finally an integrated Ministry of Defence under which the office of the Defence Minister & those of all three armed services chiefs should all be physically accommodated under a single roof. Unless & until all these come up, one should not expect miracles to happen.

To RAM KUMAR: 1) My take on this year’s Indian defence budget? China & Pakistan are extremely pleased with the figures, while India’s armed forces are totally disillusioned. 2) No. 3) Expect progress on all these to be extremely slow this fiscal year, since the economic situation is far grimmer than what’s being publicly stated. Will upload more on this issue tomorrow in a new thread, based on what I gained from a seminar addressed yesterday in Delhi by the CNS of the IN & a former Chief Economic Adviser to the GoI.

To Anon@2.40AM: Of course the US conducted those strikes, no doubt about that.

charu latha said...



That's really cool buddy.....Obviously the lady was logical.




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