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Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Compounded Irrationalities Due To Systematic Stupidity-1

As the saying goes, “Those who know much, talk little”. But its meaning seems to have been lost on India’s new Raksha Mantri (Defence Minister) Manohar Parrikar, if we are to believe what he was reported to have said at an on-the-record press conference on December 30, 2014 regarding the procurement of 189 Rafale medium multi-role combat aircraft (M-MRCA). Most of the ‘desi’ newspapers attributed two statements to Parrikar: (1) additional licence-built Su-30MKIs are adequate for the IAF in case it is decided not to procure the Rafale; and (2) The Su-30MKI is an adequate aircraft for meeting the air force’s needs. Now, while it is understandable for a select group of ‘desi’ journalists to deliberately twist-and-turn the Raksha Mantri’s statements/observations (since for the past 18 months they have either been promoting, for their own vested financial interests, the procurement of either the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter or the Eurofighter EF-2000), in case these ‘desi’ journalists for once did get it right and correctly quoted the Raksha Mantri, then India is indeed in some serious trouble.
Let me explain how and why. Neither the Su-30MKI nor the MiG-29UPG/MiG-29K were ever designed as multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA). Their design and performance parameters were instead optimised for air dominance/air superiority, with standoff all-weather precision strike undertaken from medium altitudes being a secondary capability. It is for this reason that the erstwhile USSR had developed the Su-24 and Su-27IB/Su-34 as all-weather, terrain-hugging deep penetration strike aircraft (DPSA), and the Su-25 as a dedicated tactical strike/close air support aircraft. Consequently, neither the Su-30MKI’s nor the MiG-29UPG’s/MiG-29K’s airframes have the stress tolerances that are required for flying terrain-hugging flight profiles. Their existing X-band multi-mode radars  or MMR (RLSU-30MK NO-11M ‘Bars’ and the Zhuk-M2E) therefore don’t come with low-altitude terrain avoidance mode or automatic terrain-following capability or weather-mapping mode, and neither are they equipped with low-altitude navigation pods.
Consequently, the only true M-MRCAs that are operational today in an area between India and Japan is the Republic of Singapore Air Force’s Boeing-built F-15SGs, which come equipped with Raytheon-supplied APG-63(V)3 AESA-MMR, Boeing/ELBIT Systems joint helmet mounted cueing system (JHMCS), TIGER Eyes Sensor Suite comprising Lockheed Martin’s AAQ-13 LANTIRN-ER navigation pod (containing a  mid-wave staring-array FLIR sensor and a terrain-following radar and forward-looking infra-red sensor), an AAQ-33 Sniper XR targetting pod containing a mid-wave staring-array FLIR sensor with a 40,000-feet laser and charge-couple device (CCD) TV, and the AAS-43 infra-red search-and-track (IRST) system containing a passive long-wave IR sensor.  
Simply put, therefore, the IAF is in dire need of procuring an M-MRCA fleet with automatic terrain-following capability—which the Rafale is optimised for. Presently, the IAF operates 3 MiG-29B-12 squadrons (now being upgraded to MiG-29UPG standard), 9 MiG-21 Bison squadrons, 4 Jaguar IS squadrons, 1 Jaguar IM squadron, 10 Su-30MKI squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000H/TH squadrons (being upgraded to Mirage 2000UPG standard), 3 MiG-27UPG squadrons, and 2 MiG-27M squadrons, making a total of 35 squadrons. Although the sanctioned strength of the IAF is 42 combat aircraft squadrons (which is due for increase to 50 squadrons by 2024, at least on paper), of these, those equipped with MiG-21 Bisons, MiG-27UPGs and MiG-27Ms will have to be decommissioned by 2017 at the latest.
Presently, the IAF is gearing up to form the first ‘Tejas’ Mk1 squadron—No45 ‘Flying Daggers’ Sqn—which will initially be first raised in Bengaluru before relocating to Sulur in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, this March. Present plans call for the first four IOC-standard) Tejas Mk1 MRCAs built by the MoD-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) to be delivered by March 31, 2015, another six by March 31, 2016, and another eight by March 31, 2017. This squadron will, however, be declared fully operational only in 2022, once its 18 Tejas Mk1s are upgraded to FOC standard. The second Tejas Mk1-equipped squadron, comprising 20 FOC-standard MRCAs, will be formed up in 2017 and will become fully operational by March 31, 2020. All Tejas Mkls will be equipped with Israel Aerospace Industries/ELTA Systems-supplied EL/M-2032 MMRs, which will possess both automatic terrain-following and weather mapping modes of operation.    
Going by calculations based on universal norms, I have estimated the flyaway unit cost of procuring 40 Tejas Mk1s as being US$52 million. To this must be added the cost of air base customisation and procurement of weapons packages, all of which works to out about US$72 million per aircraft.  
Meanwhile, to replace the MiG-27UPGs and MiG-27Ms, 68 Jaguar IS aircraft are presently being upgraded to DARIN 3-standard so that they can undertake all-weather tactical strike/close air support operations. This Rs.31.3 billion (US$0.57 billion) contract was awarded to HAL in March 2008 and is due for completion by December 2017. The upgraded Jaguar IS too will have on board the EL/M-2032 MMRs possessing both automatic terrain-following and weather mapping modes of operation.    
From the above, it becomes clear that the IAF is now in desperate need of M-MRCAs with credible deep penetration strike capabilities and capable of flying terrain-hugging profiles. It is also well-known that the IAF wants to arrest the steady decline of its frontline combat aircraft inventory ASAP. The only available options—all non-negotiable—are as follows:
1) Ink the procurement contract for 189 Rafales latest by June 2015.
2) Increase the size of the Su-30MKI fleet to no less than 350 by procuring the first 50 Super Su-30MKIs in semi-knocked-down condition from Russia’s IRKUT Corp, starting 2017, while concurrently commencing the upgrading of in-service Su-30MKIs in successive tranches to Super Sukhoi-standard.
3) Increase the quantum of Jaguar IS being upgraded to DARIN 3-stadard from 68 to 125 and re-engine the entire fleet with Honeywell-supplied F-125 turbofans.  
Now a brief explanation on why the Rafale M-MRCA procurement’s contract signature has been subjected to delays. Firstly, there was the financial crunch over the past two years. Secondly, the Union Ministry for Home Affairs had in 2012 issued mandatory industrial security-related regulations that called for comprehensive vetting (a most time-consuming process) of all technical and managerial personnel of those India-based Tier-1, Tier-2 and Tier-3 companies that were selected for the licence-manufacturing/licenced-assembly components of the Rafale M-MRCA. Thirdly, since French aerospace OEMs have always made use of France-origin precision machining, riveting and welding equipment and related test-benches, this time too they insisted that HAL and its sub-contractors procure all such hardware exclusively from French OEMs, instead of issuing global tenders for such industrial hardware procurements. Had HAL not agreed to comply with this key issue, all the involved French OEMs would have been unable to issue certificates of airworthiness for all those Rafales licence-built by HAL. It is this issue that has been most time-consuming and in the end, HAL had no other choice but to give-in.

Internal EW Suites Explained

Internal IRST, Optronic Sensors And AESA Arrays Of FGFA


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

This is the lecture by Indian NSA AJIT K DOVAL that has clearly rattled Pakistan:

Exactly how rattled Pakistan is, can be seen here:

Meanwhile, some plain-speaking by Pakistan’s civil society:

And this is China explaining how & why it is the world’s FIRST civilization state (LoLzz!):

AniOne said...

Prasun da,

Good to see you back in action.

A very happy new year 2015 to you sir.

As again, a very insightful post.

Sajeev Jino said...

Duh ..Exactly .. I sure all points towards BS Published by Col Ajai Shukla

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

Thanks for highlighting importance of Rafale deal. My point is do we really have utility of terrain hugging aircrafts against China and would Rafale be effective against china in TAR, Yunnan or Guizhou where most of India specific missile and forces are located vs SU-30MKI. I seen all these video of Pakistani media anchors and experts getting frustrated by Mr Doval lecture in Sastra University. They are behaving as if they have found some secret report or video. I dont think they appreciate that in Democracy these kind of lectures are norms. I seen many such lectures by US policy maker and expert in US think Tanks.

Warm Regards,

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

According to the pakistani journalist in India's policy in Afghanistan is failing, and Ashraf Ghani is tilted towards Pakistan. What is your take on this?

Best Regards

RAT said...

I Totally Agree with your current post we can also get the Mirage 2000s from the Middle East country this will serve twin purpose as that country is interested in acquiring the Rafaels it will lower the cost of manufacturing and we will be able to replace the Mig21s with some Mirages better any day once updated to UPG standards then the other 21s can server as part donors to other upgraded Mig 21s

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

eagerly awaiting your answer as prmised by you but think its not needed as time lag is big, lets just start afresh from this thread

As IAF squadron levels fall sharply in next 5 yrs, best option is

1. ink deal for 189 Rafales and exersize option of 63 more at same time this may help pull down price per jet

2. no. of Su30mki must indeed reach 350 but HAL also needs to boost its Su30mki deliveries quickly

3. the Jagaur no. must be increased to 150

4. with PAKFA/FGFA nowhere in sight till 2025 atleast, best option to fill gap in squadron no. isto buy hellanic Mirage2000 (over 25 of them if sold as country needs money) & upgrade them to Mirage2000UPG std. I say this as if am not wrong longtime back u said greece wont sell strategic systems like zubr hovercraft, mirage but zubrs was sold recently to china.

btw have you seen the russian uav company AeroB, one of its uav is almost identical to the designs of DRDO AURA available online, can you shed light on that


Joydeep Ghosh

Reddy said...

that's called "proper analysis" (we know the limitations you have to access official docs, given u r an outsider). Thanks for that.

by your own logic in the first few paragraphs, the second recommendation of SU 30 MKIs, does not seem good.

The last paragraph was beautiful and is often fail to reach audience either by desi news media, indian govt news, or from french press/ dassault.

why is HAL refusing to accept french OEMs?

I know it is immensely difficult for french to replace the french OEM equipment, and is very highly unlikely that they assist HAL to procure those mfg machines globally, certify them and make them work to mfg rafale which is like reinventing the wheel or chinese reverse engineering.

what HAL want to achieve by doing things this way? any strategic reasons? something like independence? yes independence is a nice word and to find a perfect meaning and perfect independence HAL/INDIA should have not gone for imports/ foreign platform, but should have 100% Indian made fighters and all the components.

there are certain tradeoffs in this business given our technical capability.

also why didn't india choose mix and match the capabilities of other sukhoi fighters for the A2G roles? like tweaking su24,25,34 and making it a customised version for the MMRCA role? we have done the same way and we have SU30MKI?

what is evident in this process and in the scorpene sub process is India (MOD/PMO/IAF/IN/DRDO/HAL) lack strategic thinking and concern for mother land? are my allegations true?

Anonymous said...

@Prasun da,

if the main deficit is of a deep penetration, terrain following strike fighter, the upgraded DARIN3 Jaguars would fit the role, right?. If i remember correctly, the Jaguars were referred as deep penetration strike aircrafts.

Even if we ink the Rafale deal by june, the squadron formation and FOC certification would not be possible before 2020 at earliest. We lost precious 3 years in the mean time. Since our economic situation being not good what is the alternate we have, even though not a good one...the so called 'survival mode'. 20 Billion or more is not affordable at the current economic scenario. I believe there would be a global economic slump for next 2-3 years. So it would become unwise to commit that kind of money.

By 2025 or so there could be lot of unmanned combat aircraft with stealth and penetration capabilities. Is it not better to go for the futuristic UCAVs or FGFAs by extending the life of some of our Jaguars (125 is not that bad) and speeding up LCA MK2.
Not because Rafales are not upto mark or because we dont desperately need them...but because we dont have the money!

Sreenivas R.

KSingh said...


After the LCH TD-3 was test flown there was a lot of reporting on it but many seem to forget about the ongoing Rudura project. Has HAL and IA/IAF simply abadonded this project in favour of more LCHs? The Rudra was meant to be in operational service by now but nothing has been announced and I am still yet to hear that it is in service. Such a shame.

Also, will the IA and IAF be placing more orders for the ALH? It is a great heli and our forces need as many of them as possible only HAL are too slow at producing them.

SaiR said...


On one hand, one cannot deny your point regarding upgrade of all Jaguar aircrafts with Honeywell engine and purchase of additional Su-30MKIs. At the same time, your argument for Rafale procurement has significant loopholes.

1. Jaguar was perhaps the first Indian aircraft acquisition under the DPSA category. Look at its performance during Kargil, which was horrible failure.

2. MiG-27, another aircraft in the DPSA role, India ended up losing one in Kargil without any significant dent to the adversary.

Both DPSAs had a horrible problem of not being able to fight at high altitude.They were procured to fight the previous 1971 war, whereas the world has moved on to 5th generation aircraft.

All this techo-phobic talk of lack of terrain avoidance or terrain hugging capability when I hear, I can't suppress my laugh. It will be useful to remember that during the 1971 India-Pak war, Halwara base was bombed by really low flying B-57 bombers !!! They had no such fancy avionics.

India's Imported Air Force doesn't need Rafale, for which, it has been trying to scuttle LCA, FGFA and everything. Time to wake up.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

Do you think India need a dedicated bomber like USA or China (e.g. H-6, B-52, B-1etc.)



sakshi said...


you are taking 1971 war as a bench mark. you are funny.

Imported Air Force? No country on this planet has the ability to make a complete fighter except US. Russia too imports critical components and tools from West.

the world has moved on to 5th generation aircraft?? Only US has one other country has.. you are saying the world has moved.. as if 5th gen fighter is available in a corner shop down the road.. which world did you come from?

FGFA?? is this not from russia supposedly?

fancy avionics??? pak and china has enough capability to shoot down our we need technology.. for you it may be fancy but we need to protect our soldiers, pilots and platforms..

They were procured to fight the previous 1971 war????

when India is procuring them India doesn't know we are having a war in 71.. and no country buys platforms to fight a war in a particular year..

raw13 said...

Excellent Analysis. I have one question: Lets assume IAF goes with more SU30's. What stops them doing exactly what USAF did, take a standard f-15 and get F-15E out of it(adding new radar + some extra sensors)?

The SU30s are already being fitted (as I understand) to carry and fire 2 Bramos. It is also certified with a +9g and has TV. All this points to an aircraft with a pretty sturdy frame.

sakshi said...

Hi Prasun,
Given India is allowing Middleman / Agents legally as far as defence imports are concerned are you willing to provide your services to our forces by registering as an Independent consultant?

I mean representing at RFP/RFI/Tender level but not for a particular company/country/product..

kiddo said...

Interesting and informative. Rafale is costly but good aircraft. Rafale is not following original RFP and deviating from tender acceptance. They are also promoting Reliance for local partner. Anyway India need this to overwhelm PAF and will be formidable opponent to Chinese.

VP said...

But the rafale deal will suposedly tear the Indian defence budjet, the rafale has gone way over its initial cost , i am not an expert but i say going for Gripen NG seems as a better option with Saab still not giving up hope and reportedly hhas everything prepared if ever the govt shows interest.

Anonymous said...

It was a excellent lecture by Ajit Dovalji. To defeat the external enemy pakis we must defeat the internal enemy congis who are providing oxygen for terrorists. See how they behaved lately on the terror boat which blew up on the west coast. Sonia cried in the batla house encounter. Clearly shows where dies congis sympathies lie and who are funding this traitor organisation.

Mr. RA 9 said...

Your comments are again excellent. But how to manage the huge amount of money involved therein and that too under the continuing difficult financial circumstances. Can the lowering prices of petroleum be linked with this matter in a positive and beneficial manner.

Sakshi said...

while Rafale is pretty good as a fighter and platform, dassault is not honest in it's intentions.

insisting to have RIL for JV and deviating from RFP, and steeply hiking the cost is the evidence and is in their true colours..

they promised even the full source codes at some point in Brazil and Indian tenders..

French have the least working hours in EU and even Lakshmi mittal and tatas find it very difficult to withstand, operate and manufacture from french soil.

The unions there are notorious.

But in general france have very sophisticated technological base in every aspect say it... naval technologies, army and air force technologies, satellites, rockets, nuclear... water, food, transport, Press (Agency France Presse) etc. they created tech marvels.. we must appreciate it..

what they failed at is at the political level.. they failed to show their strength to the world at diplomatic and political levels..

french technology exceeds that of russian and european and american ones...

you name it.. in every field they have competitive products to that of their peers.

to name few products:
they have airbus, scorpene subs, TGV train, ESA/ ariane launchers, best sat tech, areva nuclear tech, aesa radars, fighter jet engines, air craft carriers, MISTRAL carriers, AFP (news media) L'Oréal ..what not..?

the best of france is the fashion and design... see any french product.. they are designed it planes, subs, ships, dresses anything..

but when it comes to selling Rafales.. they failed utterly..mostly due to India is naive in dealing with them... Indians themselves cornered with this process of negotiating only with french.. if they keep all the 5 contenders in the fray.. India could have grabbed the best deal out of this.. now who blinks first???

nOW nO Nicolas Sarkozy things are even crawley..

DJ100 said...

Hi Prasun. Disagree with your rationale for Rafale:
Tactically, low level flights are dead. Only a foolhardy would let $100million plane on NOE mode to be hit by numerous MANPADS. The only viable option nowadays is to hit enemy with guided munitions from altitude after achieving or while achieving air superiority. For higher altitude, tailess delta configuration is less desirable to traditional designs.
No offense, I like reading your blog.

Anonymous said...

I agree with DJ100, while I am a big fan of your blog and try to read it every day the Rafale rationale is not acceptable on at least 2 counts
1. The typhoon AFAIK is not optimized for terrain hugging flights, and it was shortlisted by IAF which clearly means low level flights were not the only motivation
2. Penetration strikes are possible when u have absolute command over the skies and with multiple level of sky denial with SAMs and fighter aircraft our IAFs principal foes (china/PAF) will make it extremely costly for us.
NIrbhay, Brahmos, glide bombs and other PGMs are a safer bet.


MixnMatch said...

I guess you are making mountain out of a molehill for Rafale. Neither the terrain hugging flights nor deep penetrative strike is part of air orbat these days. The ongoing emphasis is on SEAD and DEAD for which UAVs, cruise missiles, NLOS-BSM and standoff munitions are more than enough. Who will risk his USD 150 mill non-stealth fighter against heaps of MANPADs, QRSAM, SRSAM and many low level risks?

In addition, no tech transfer on engine or radar, no quality guarantee on HAL produced ones and huge price of the deal makes the contract completion a crime against India's national interest.

So Parrikar is right, no Rafale for IAF.

SS said...

Nice article on misachievements of Nehru.

rad said...

hi prasun
You were stating that we badly need low level terrain hugging nap of the earth flying for deep penetration missions.I think the concept is invalid in todays awacs scenario as any awacs worth its salt will pick up low flying craft as soon as it enters their airspace and alert airborne and ground borne air defenses for intercept.Thus the element of surprise will be lost.More over look down shoot down radars with missiles will not find it very difficult to take them down. Standoff precision weapons will be the best choice today.
I am of the opinion that if the rafale deal falls then the su-30mki super will be a good choice as it has better aesa radar ,avionics ,engines ,ew ,etc. Russia is in dire straits for cash, we can drive a hard bargain and ask them to transfer critical tech as well. We could buy 2 times as much aircraft with the same money as the ruble is nearly half of its original value today.
If we need the DPSA ability we can easily do it with LCA,as it has the Israeli pod and terrain foll radar.

VP said...

Any info on the P-15A & P-17B??

Bruh said...

So the Brits, Canadians and Aussies have snatched up all but 3/4 of the remaining C-17 "white tails" (the last C-17s ever to be built) this despite the fact the IAF stating they wanted at lease SIX more, if not 10 more!

Man what compulsive liars, did the IAF even make an attempt to get in the fray for these last airframes? Other AFs with smarter generals clearly appreciated the situation and got in there early.

Now the IAF is left with just 10 which is not enough to replace the 17-20 IL-76s and to support the upcoming Mountain Strike Corps where the IAF was meant to deploy a further 10 C-17s (and 6 C-130Js) in West Bengal.

Now what? The IAF has let itself get into a absurd situation of not having enough strategic airlift and the IL-76s about to be retired. I guess they are going to have to look at the IL-476 but I as a taxpayer am not happy my taxes are going to be wasted like this on 2 different types of heavy airlifter that WILL cost more just because the IAF were too lazy to get off their backsides and seize the opportunity of these remaining white tails.

And they still haven't made an order for the follow-on C-130Js despite having crashed one! The transport fleet is SHRINKING at a time it needs to be GROWING!!!

Only in India......

Bruh said...

+ oh and the Prime Minister I voted for (along with millions of y countrymen) is STILL being flown around in the Mi-8/17 that are a few months away from reaching the end of their service lives. What are the IAF doing about this? Because of their incompetence the leadership of my nation is being put at risk day in and day out.

What solutions are they working on to fix this? Does the PM or a service cheif have to die in a helicopter accident for these guys to start taking this seriously and moving faster?

What happens in a few months when the current VVIP Mi-8/17 fleet reached the end of their service lives? Will they continue to be operated in an unsafe manner because there is no alternative? or will we have to watch the pathetic spectacle of our Prime Minister using a RENTED helicopter from the likes of Pawan Hans or something?

Abysmal. No one seems to be asking these questions, just assuming "all is well" and sticking their fingers in their ears.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANIONE: VMT indeed.

To SAJEEV JINO: Indeed, the BS appears in these following stories:

Now, let’s dissect the BS. Firstly, this claim: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” vision faces powerful opposition, including within the military, which sees greater benefit in importing costly foreign weaponry.
Reality: No air force in the world operates ever two different types of BTTs equipped with different airframes, cockpit instrumentation & avionics, accessories & engines. Anyone that does so goes broke. And the IAF certainly isn’t that stupid.

Claim: Pilatus is shrugging off direct responsibility for their maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO). This after Pilatus charged the MoD 80.25 million Swiss Francs (Rs 515 crore) for maintenance knowhow to HAL in the contract signed on May 24, 2012. This so-called “Maintenance Transfer of Technology” (MToT) was to be formalised in a separate contract within three years.
Reality: MToT applies to the 3-year period under which the prime contractor (Pilatus) is responsible for assisting the aircraft operator & local MRO provider (HAL) with assured stocks of rotables & consumables after the expiry of the product warranty period. In addition, Pilatus keeps on standby during this period a team of field service representatives on standby for an AOG situation. Western MRO practices never call for the prime contractor to assume product liability for engines, accessories, instrumentation & avionics. OEMs for such hardware are held directly liable. Consequently, Pilatus cannot take on the responsibilities of Pratt & Whitney Canada. In the Russian MRO services provision system, however, there has always been a single point-of-contact, which now is Rosoboronexport State Corp. HAL therefore cannot bypass Rosoboronexport & directly contact UMPO, UFA, UOMZ, NPO Saturn or IRKUT Corp.

cont'd below

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Claim: HAL’s selection of the Honeywell TPE 331-12B engine after an open tender, when the alternative supplier, Pratt & Whitney, refused to allow licensed manufacture in India. With the first flight looming, Honeywell agreed to provide a “Category B” engine--a used engine with more than 80% of its service life remaining. It is not unusual for “Category B” engines to be chosen for prototypes, while buying new engines for the production aircraft. HAL had powered the Intermediate Jet Trainer prototype with a “Category B” Larzac engine, until new engines became available.
Reality: Even Honeywell has NEVER allowed licenced-manufacture of any version of the TPE-331 ever since this engine was selected for powering the Do-228s in the early 1980s. All that HAL does till this day is LICENCED-ASSEMBLY & ROH. Also, prototype airframes NEVER fly with ‘Category B’ engines. Only technology demonstrators (like Rafale’s demonstrator, the BAE Systems EAP, & MBB/Rockwell X-31) do. Prototypes are airframes whose designs are frozen (meaning their internal engine-bays are not compatible with different engines) & therefore always use only /Category A’ powerplants. Just analyse how long it has taken to redesign the HJT-36 airframe so that it could swirch over from the Larzac to the AL-55I.

Claim: In contrast, a “Make” category project like the HTT-40 would involve far more expansive indigenisation--including ground-up design and integration, test flying and certification and eventual manufacture.
Reality: Only the airframe along with a few accessories was to be indigenously built. All the rest—engine, avionics, flight-control actuators, cockpit canopy—was to be imported & was never meant to be locally built.

Claim: Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne bizarrely declared on October 8, 2013, that the IAF’s base repair depots (BRDs)--which maintain and overhaul aircraft and engines--could build the PC-7 Mark II.
Reality: Totally false. The then CAS had instead stated that all PC-7 Mk2s could be imported in semi-knocked-down condition & be assembled at the BRD.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: It’s not just terrain-hugging, but terrain-masking as well. The two always go hand-in-hand. One without the other doesn’t serve any purpose. For battlefield air interdiction & for tactical strike against hostile fuel/ammo dumps deployed in the rear-areas as well as mobile bridging systems, for instance, there’s no alternative to terrain-hugging/terrain-masking MRCAs.

Here’s another interesting debate by objective Pakistani commentators:

To RAJ: That’s typical Punjabi bluster. Reality is that: Afghanistan has not yet formally acknowledged the Durand Line to be the permanent international boundary between the two countries; Afghanistan in a way totally discredited & undermined Pakistan’s so-called democracy last November when President Ashraf Ghani began his first official tour of Pakistan with a formal visit to the PA’s GHQ in Rawalpindi, instead of being welcomed by PM Nawaz Sharif; Kabul has yet to begin re-equipping one of its infantry brigades with weaponry supplied by Pakistan; Indian NSA Ajit Doval’s visit to Kabul was not a unilateral or reactionary move, but was undertaken after a request by former President Hamid Karzai, who is still highly active behind-the-scenes; & the Afghan National Army being a multi-ethnic institution made up of Tajiks, Uzbeks & Pashtuns, prefers to train its officers in Indian Army institutions whose training courses are optimised for ensuring multi-ethnic/multi-communal cohesion, unlike those of the PA that are heavily oriented toward theocratic proselytising (like waging Jihad in Allah’s name or for the sake of Allah, whatever that means).

To RAT: With each passing day, Mirage 2000s worldwide are getting more expensive to remain in airworthy/serviceable status because their product-support is no longer available in affordable quantum. That’s why Dassault Aviation had in 2009 itself advised India to forego the Mirage 2000H/TH upgrade option & instead go straightaway for the Rafale. Unfortunately, India did not heed this well-intentioned advice & is now paying the price for it. Cost of licence-building & service-inducting the Rafale is not cost-prohibitive at all, since the cost of US$20 billion will be staggered over a period of 15 years. What is cost-prohibitive—which Dassault cannot be blamed for at all—is the cost of acquiring three different types of MRCAs concurrently, i.e. Rafale, Tejas Mk1/Mk2 & FGFA—a feat which no other air force can afford to undertake in present times.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) The on-going crisis about depleted strength was caused primarily by external factors like Russia refusing to undertake, due to its own domestic financial compulsions, the service life-extension of MiG-23BNs & MiG-27Ms. Due to this, the IAF today has an enormous void in its close air-support capabilities that can only be filled in by DARIN-3 Jaguar IS. This in turn creates a void in deep interdiction capabilities, which can only be filled in by the Rafale, which being an M-MRCA, will also fi8ll in the void created by the decommissioning of the MiG-21 Bisons starting 2017. 2) Jaguar IS CANNOT be built any more by HAL or anyone else, since the OEMs for its instrumentation & accessories long ago stopped producing such hardware. Even HAL has stopped producing whatever little it had produced in the past & the production line cannot be re-established. 4) Procuring additional Mirage 2000s is a total no-brainer, since its airframe/accessories product-support is no longer available from French OEMs, all of whom have switched over to producing sub-systems for the Rafale.

To REDDY: HAL’s refusing because it had assumed that just like the Russians, the French too submit to HAL. What is not realised is that Russia too had imported Su-30-related industrial manufacturing machinery from Austria, Germany, Italy & Switzerland in the late 1990s, just like China & India too did later. Therefore, it is laughable whenever one talks about self-reliance through licenced-manufacture. All it takes is for an industrial embargo on servicing of such machining & welding equipment & lo-and-behold, the entire licenced-production effort grounds to a halt. Furthermore, any form of due diligence conducted on various aircraft licenced-production projects since the 1960s will reveal that the nett quantum of locally produced hardware from the raw material-stage HAS NEVER EXCEEDED 38% of the aircraft’s on-board instrumentation, accessories, avionics & engines, I E.whenever HAL undertook any so-called licenced-production effort, it was in essence just an aircraft rebuild capability aimed at undertaking only overhauls & service life-extensions of a limited nature. Substantial self-reliance can be achieved only through the creation of a widespread industrial eco-system & this in turn is created ONLY WHEN totally home-grown solutions are forthcoming, such as the ALH, LCH, & Tejas MRCA. This ain’t rocket science, bit pure logical reasoning backed up by financial & business realities.

To SREENIVAS R. DARIN-3 Jaguars are now sorely reqd for close air-support as I’ve explained above. They were DPSAs for as long as they could take off from air bases located in Punjab or Rajasthan & could therefore take off & cruise at low-level t cover the elongated narrow geography of Pakistan. That’s no longer possible due to the advent of new-generation standoff PGMs that can target such air bases. Instead, DPSAs today have to be located in air bases deeper within the hinterland. US$20 billion is not reqd to be paid immediately upon contract signature for the Rafales, but payment will be in staggered mode over a period of 15 years. As for UCAVs, India will first be required to put in place the infrastructure necessary for undertaking fully networked operations—a process that requires enormous investments n SATCOMs. As of now, only the PMO has 38 MBPS bandwith connectivity, while the IMACS in Gurgaon has 155 MBPS. You see the gap that’s prevailing now?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSINGH: Not at all. The Rudra’s certification process is progressing just fine, EXCEPT for the selection of the ATGM & this too because the DRDO is blocking the importation of PARS-3LR ATGM by claiming to complete R & D on the HELINA. Had the PARS-3LR been ordered two years ago, then the first Rudras would have entered service by now. The ALHs & LCHs are required much more by the IA, than by the IAF. Have the LCHs armed with PARS-3LR as well & one therefore won’t need to procure the AH-64Ds for the time-being.

To SAIR: 1) Jaguar IS in 1999 was effectively used ONLY for tactical recce when equipped with Vicon-78 recce pods. None of the IAF’s tactical strike aircraft performed optimally then simply because none of them were ever certified to launch offensive payloads from such high altitudes. Therefore, to single out the Jaguar for mission ineffectiveness is factually incorrect. 2) MiG-27M was NEVER acquired as a DPSA. It was acquired along with MiG-23BNs for close air-support. Again in 1999 the MiG-27M’s R-29B engine stalled when it injested the dense smoke-plumes of the S-8 unguided air-to-ground rockets, again because the MiG-27M was never certified for firing such rockets from such high altitudes. Terrain-hugging/terrain-masking may well be ‘techno-phobic’ jargon to you, but such capabilities are still imperative for the world’s major air forces. Read Leon Panetta’s autobiography WORTHY FIGHTS in which he describes how exactly the two B-2 bombers were once being considered for each dropping 16 JDAMs over the Abbotabad compound. It may well be amusing to you & those fiddling with Xboxes, but they’re not for those responsible for operational air-tasking, rest assured.

To RAW13: VMT. USAF can do anything it wants to the F-15 since the aircraft’s OEM is US-based & so is the entre flight certification infrastructure. In case of the Su-30 family, it’s all inside Russia & Russia itself is committed to the Su-34 for meeting its DPSA needs. Consequently, Russian OEMs of the Su-30MKI are neither interested in hardening & certifying the Su-30MKI’s airframe to make it into a terrain-hugging DPSA, nor to develop LANTIRN-type navigation avionics. That’s the hitch.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KIDDO & SAKSHI: What you have commented upon is based only on gross mis-reporting by the ‘desi’ cabal of ill-informed journalists—with some of them ASSUMING that Reliance Aerospace was being proposed by Dassault Aviation as a alternative to HAL. This then got picked up by every other Tom, Dick & Harry & was parroted to such an extent that everyone assumed this to be the gospel truth. In reality, there was no deviation from the RFP’s mandated clauses. Reliance Aerospace has struck industrial partnerships with French OEMs for ONLY locally producing the Rafale’s proprietary EMP-hardened digital flight control system-related wiring, connectors & actuators—all of which can easily be used for the Tejas Mk2 MRCA as well. This is what happens when a well-intentioned company’s efforts are totally distorted by ill-meaning ‘desi’ journalists with vested interests & everyone else blindly assumes such distortions to become the gospel truth!

To VP & Mr.RA 9: No, it certainly won’t. Contractual payments are never paid in one single lump-sum, but are instead paid progressively over a 15-year time-frame in case of the Rafale M-MRCA. What will be a burden will be the bunching of payments to be made concurrently for the Rafale M-MRCA, the Tejas Mk2 MRCA & the FGFA. And for this, only successive Govts of India since 2000 have to be blamed, no one else.

To DJ100 & ASHISH & MIXNMATCH: Your scenario applies only to Xbox-type scenarios. To get to within 80km of a target prior to launching PGMs also requires terrain-hugging/terrain-masking flight profiles. And it is only such profiles that deny the vital early-warning time required for the SHORADS & MANPADS firing units to be activated. If indeed low-level flights were a no-brainer, then respectable air forces would not have procured LANTIRN-type pods (even the PLAAF is procuring them) & the Ruskies would not have developed aircraft fuselage-mounted air-to-ground situational awareness IRSTs & MAWS for the T-50 PAK-FA or FGFA. The EF-2000 is indeed certified for terrain-hugging/terrain-masking flights since it comes equipped with BAE Systems-developed TERPROM & also has a holographic HUD to view the TERPROM imagery/symbology. And cruise missiles are only meant for use against permanent static installations, & not against sites hosting temporary installations like ammo/POL dumps, field workshops, railway convoys & bridging systems. If long-range cruise missiles were one-stop solutions, then the Western air forces would never have employed their manned MRCAs over Libya & against ISIS inside Syria.

To MIXNMATCH: Read the above-mentioned, explanations, then absorb them & reflect upon them, prior to reaching ill-conceived conclusions. No one in this world has to date engaged in ToTs that you aspire to. Even the US has not parted with such ToTs with its Anglo-Saxon cousins in Europe. So, stop living in cuckoo land for once!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Answers to all other outstanding queries both in this thread & in the previous 2 threads will be uploaded later today.

Gessler said...

Check this out sir ji -

Rahul said...

1. Has the IAF placed any orders for 68 or more El/M-2032 radar systems for the Darin-3 upgrade? I dont think the deal has been signed.

2. Similarly the deal for the Honeywell F125 engines hasnt been signed?
So in what manner is the Jaguar Is fleet being upgraded?

3.There are 125 Jaguars spread among 5 squadrons and there are 10 IM . So how many IS is each of the 4 Jaguar squadrons having?

5. 40 MiG-27 were isnt there two Upg squadrons and 3 MiG-27M squadrons?

6.Has Taal aerospace started the upgradation process of the IAF MiG-29B? Will this be carried in Taal's own complex after setup of required facilities or will it be carried out in 11 BRD of IAF by Taal technicians and engineers alongwith IAF people?

7 . Drdo has tested a new Ew suite comprising of a jammer in PV-1? Is there any info available on thsi suite? How many bands it covers and whether it can jam CW threats. Is it the Mayavi suite?

Will the 1st batch of Sp series of Tejas be refitted with this jammer once its flight tests are complete or is it only foe the 2nd batch of 20 fighters built to FOC standards?

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

VMT for answering queries. I am more than convince that Rafale is most apt MRCA for India. AS far as Pak media discourse is concerned most of them look like ISI-military mouth pieces trying to frighten Pakistani Public in name of Hindu India vs Islamic Pakistan.

While answering about afghan query you talked about Ashraf Ghani by-passing Pak Govt, I would like point that still he is giving priority to Pakistan KSA and china over India.

Always looking forward to your answers and assessments.


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: It means that the designs of the seven P-17A FFG & four P-15B DDGs have not yet been frozen! This is bad. As for your earlier query on 5.5-tonne shipborne helicopters for the IN, the solution is staring at us: the ALH’s naval version needs re-engineering, especially the nose-section, so that it can house both a FLIR turret as well as a radar turret below it that will contain something like an EL/M-2022ES AESA radar that is already available as a miniaturised system. In fact, the LRDE should have quite some time back undertaken an AESA-MMR project for 2 separate manned platforms: one for the Tejas Mk2 MRCA & a scaled-down version of such an AESA-MMR (with limited modes of operaton) for naval helicopters. The latter will obviously be much smaller in size & therefore should have been much more easier to develop with far lesser risks, & would have required only a different type of target recognition algorithm to be developed. Wonder why the DRDO has failed to recognize this elementary reality so far!

To JAY BHANUSHALI: IAC-1 will have Ka-31s on board. Four of them were ordered way back in 2004 & have already been delivered. Regarding future numbers of naval helicopters to be acquired, the numbers of 5.5-tonne & 12-tonne NMRHs haven’t yet been firmed up. A lot depends on the to-be-selected design of the LPH.

To SUVO: Rather than look so far as the South Pacific, better to focus more on the IOR & SAARC. Making foreign trips is all fine, but where’s the follow-up? What happened to the amphibian aircraft project after the PM’s Japan trip? By now some definite deal should have been worked out & a procurement roadmap should have been unveilled. It’s no use making only announcements & then having zero forward momentum. As for the Bharat-52 howitzer, it’s future has already been sealed. Check out the latest advertisement of OFB, which clearly states that the OFB is the ONLY/SOLE Nodal entity appointed for the Govt of India for supplying both 45-cal & 52-cal towed 155mm howitzers to the IA.

To DINESH: There are several options available. But presently one is only witnessing statements & speeches & pronouncements emanating from Delhi. There’s hardly any follow-up, as I’ve explained above with the amphibian issue.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: The photos of the upgraded Schilkas I had uploaded I the DEFEXPO 2012 thread clearly show VSHORADS-type missile launchers on the turret. ACTAS active/passive ultra low-frequency towed-array sonars will soon enough also be ordered for other IN surface combatants as well. Both France & Germany have severely scaled down their weapons exports to Pakistan for almost a decade now. AAD missile can NEVER be used for CMD. Only IIR-guided SAMs can be effective against subsonic cruise missiles, while the Barak-2 can effectively engage supersonic top-attack LACMs. And as for neutralising AEW & CS platforms, the best option for that is always their destruction on the ground inside their hangars with standoff air-launched PGMs or LACMs.

To VISHAKH: 1) Arjun Mk2 & the Mk1A variant will BOTH eventually have APS. Iron Fist from IMI has already been integrated with Arjun M1A & is immediately available. 2) Nope. 3) On paper, the figure is 1,000. T-90S cannot be converted to T-90AM. 4) IA’s T-90S fleet will be locally upgraded. 5) No. 6) No decision has been taken as yet. 7) Nothing has moved forward. 8) BMS has not yet been introduced in IA’s armoured/mechanised forces. 9) There’s no need to reduce the Arjun MBT’s weight.

To JADED & BOLD: I have yet to see any statement from the MoD or IAF saying that the AW-101 deal is a dead-horse. Instead, the truth is finally coming out about why exactly the AW-101 contract implementation was abruptly put on hold by AKA last year. It appears that AKA was anxious not to let any CBI or Italian enquiry connect the dots concerning an earlier deal involving AgustaWestland in the late 1980s for which money had already been paid to certain Indian politicians after the IN received 20 Sea King Mk42Bs & six Mk42Cs. Some details of this deal were reported about earlier this week on TIMESNow.

To RAW13: Not only was I right about the LY-80Es (not LY-60D) for Pakistan, but also about the Z-10 attack helicopters, an initial three of which will be procured by the PA’s Aviation Corps. Therefore, no Mi-35s for the PA. The Z-10 was also officially offered to India way back in mid-2012.

To VP: 1) The ineffectiveness concerned the P-8A Poseidon, & not the P-8I. Te latter already has more on-board sensors than the P-8A. 2) Nothing serious about it at all. Just rumours.

To VIJAY: S-400 LR-SAM is optimised for use against high-flying supersonic recce aircraft like the SR-74. It is not meant for engaging combat aircraft. Therefore, India will not be affected in any way.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SIDDHARTH: 1) India has already developed her own ENR systems & does not need any imported technologies. In reality, India’s only reqmt for imported systems concerns nuclear safety-related systems & sensors, which are now freely available. 2) Nuclear power generation is quite expensive compared to power generation from wind turbines & mega solar farms. 3) They are being exploited commercially. 4) Nothing has changed. SAARC satellite will be useful only for countries like Bhutan & Nepal & Maldives.

To KAPILJ: Have already explained it all above. It is BUSINESS STANDARD that’s playing dirty games by publishing totally erroneous & factually incorrect stories.

To SS: The IN’s original plan was for procuring two home-grown Project 71 aircraft carriers, IAC-1 & IAC-2. The IN never wanted the Gorshkov & the IA never wanted the T-90S. It was only in 2001 when ONGC Videsh was competing against BP for equity stake in the Sakhalin-1 crude oil production site that OVL asked the GoI for negotiating assistance. It was then that then Union MoF Yeshwant Sinha & Petroleum Minister Ram Naik convinced PM A B Vajpayee to actively intervene & lobby with President Putin. A B Vajpayee complied & promised Putin substantial imports of weapons of Russian origin if OVL was allowed to win the Sakhalin-1 bid. Consequently, in return for Putin’s approval, the T-90S & Gorshkov deals were struck. Today the IN is stuck with an aircraft carrier from Russia that’s powered by vintage steam boilers. Project 16 FFGs will be replaced by the P-17A FFGs, while the Project 61ME DDGs will be replaced by Project 15A & Project 15B DDGs. IN does not need coastal patrol FFGs. But future FAC-M acquisitions will easily be able to carry BrahMos-Mini ASCMs.

To DEEPAK GOWDA: Both Sreenivas R & Anurag have given you convincing & compelling rebuttals & I can only support them wholeheartedly. As for your assertion (“In the past 5000 years of Indian history, no at once India has sent its soldiers to China to conquer or invade”), again you are factually wrong. Read up all you can about the Dogra Chieftain Zorawar Singh’s expeditions into Tibet in the late 19th century & about Col Francis Younghusband’s expeditions I the early 20th century. Chinese history textbooks for schoolchildren till this day mention such expeditions & portray the Indians as being barbaric & brutal. That’s how the mental conditioning of literate Chinese takes place since their childhoods & hence their hatred for Indians. As for PLAN submarines in Sri Lanka, these were goodwill visits (i.e. not covert or unannounced visits) during which official dinner engagements were held for which all the Defence Advisers & diplomats based in Colombo were invited. Therefore, nothing was hidden & India too follows the same tradition. And you can’t compare Sri Lanka to Taiwan. The former is a full-fledged member of the UN, while the latter isn’t.

To SPANKY’s BLOG/SWAROP: That is an outrageously erroneous story. More like a convoluted fairy-tale.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAHUL: 1) The MMR orders were placed way back in early 2009. 2) No F125s have been otdered. Only the avionics upgrade is proceeding. 3) Numbers are never precise & vary from squadron to squadron. 5) Same applies to MiG-27 squadrons. Some have 12, some have 16. 6) All work is being carried out at 11 BRD. 7) That was tested a long time ago in a standalone manner. They will not be on-board any of the first 20 Tejas Mk1, only on the latter 20 Mk1s. Had uploaded the poster of this suite way back in mid-2011.

To PAWAN: The new Afghan President gave priority to KSA & PRC because these are precisely the two countries that have huge leverage over Pakistan. It does not mean that India is superceded or frowned upon. In fact, the PRC has instructed Pakistan to follow India’s grassroots-level developmental model that’s been successfully implemented in Afghanistan. And China too is learning more about India’s approach & is in active discussions with India in this matter. Reality is that China wants to replicate this model as part of President Xi Jinping’s new foreign policy initiative for Afghanistan, which is officially referred to as ‘Creative Involvement’, as opposed to the previous policy of being hands-off in the internal affairs of another country. But China is still decades behind India in such matters since it has never been a heterogeneous society like India & consequently it lacks the art of making functional socio-economic compromises, which is exactly why there’s growing socio-economic instability inside China today. Small wonder therefore that since 2011 China’s annual spending on internal security has been greater than its annual defence budgets. This year, China’s internal security budget is US$121 billion, while the defence budget has been pegged at US$119 billion! Such spending patterns clearly are unsustainable over the long-term.

MixnMatch said...


Your posts have quite a bit of conspiracy theory filled themes. I really wonder whether you have ever thought about credible reporting/writing based on veracity of facts or actual interviews as others like Ajai Shukla, Shiv Aroor or Ananth Krishnan do. All one gets from you is conspiracy theory after conspiracy theory like that Rajat Pandit fellow from TOI or S Anandan from Hindu.

For example:
On INS Vikramaditya, first you peddled the theory that it was a side deal of the main Akula class submarine deal which India bought from Russia (INS Chakra-2). You even claimed that the entire payment of INS Viki even consisted of money for the Akula.

Later, you claimed INS Viki was junk-sold by Admiral Nanda who convinced GOI to buy it. He got huge amounts of cuts in the proceeds, so did everyone involved. Now you are claiming that INS Viki was part of OVL's Sakhalin-1 bargaining chip so PM Vajpayee bought it.

If you now argue that you have never said these conspiracy theories, I will come back with specific lines and paragraph numbers from your previous posts. So be careful on that. This is one example and there are heaps of them in your posts.

All of this makes me wonder where do you get your fantasy news from? Also, where does that leave you in terms of your credibility on the Rafale acquisition contract? You once even claimed that you were part of Rafale contract evaluation committee. I don't care whether its true or a fantasy, it does tell that you have vested interest in the Rafale deal, hence the defence. I would even see the same in your posts often defending Israeli purchases.

So my question is - do you really know anything or are you in the business of manufacturing facts?

DJ100 said...

From operational standpoint I can assure you that there is no current doctrine to use expensive air assets in low level penetration/ terrain-following mode.
It is not an Xbox scenario, but it is assumed that enemy low-level air defense is already active during any conflict and enemy AEW will be able to pick up any low-flying aircraft from distance, making such missions practically suicide.
Generally LGB's such as Paveway are released from altitude at a distance of up to 25 km from target. Extended / standoff ranges are available with tail-kits and rocket assistance.
To deal with enemy air defense, anti-radiation munitions, jamming and for fixed installations standoff missiles are used.

vishakh said...


Thanks for answering but as you said T90 tanks are fitted with Iron Fist seems difficult to digest as no literature/links over internet can confirm this.

Can you please provide links or source of this information ??

Are all T90 tanks fitted with this or small number ??

manoj joshi said...

Re MixnMatch. In defence of Mr Sengupta, I would like to point out that unlike Ajay Shukla, Shiv Aroor or others, he is not a reporter who is paid to visit all those facilities and write on them. He is a businessman who has an interest in defence affairs. Having been acquainted with his writings going back to the 1980s, I would say he is very well informed indeed. He has opinions, but hey, that's what a blog is for. He is occasionally wrong, but who isn't. There are some discussions in the blog outside the realm of defence. But it is his blog, and we read it voluntarily, and I for one profit from it.

Jay Bhanushali said...

vmt for your answers sir.

Rahul said...

Sir, Vmt for the answers.

1. The first Su-30(SB-027) which has been overhauled by HAL Ozhar doesnt seem to sport the Maws and Lws suite which has been developed by Dare. The airframe was stripped and major components refurbished. So will this airframe be again be subjected to upgrade where all the improvements be carried out?

2. The su30 do seem to have something close to the top on the tailfins.

3.Will the next batch of 20 Tejas mk1 have the pylon mounted Milds-F MAWS from Saab?
Any any such maws planned for the Darin-3 upgrade?

vishakh said...


Pianak Mk2 with Range of 60 KM is finished developement . Does it has Sigma 30 or Talin Intertial Naigation ??

Is it purely unguided or use GPS + Intertial or Just GPS navigation ??

In future will Talin will come in Pinaka MK2 as Tata has deal with Honeywell??

Bruh said...

Sir great to see you back and active again! I hope all is well with you.

Could you please answer my above questions?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MixnMatch: Regarding your willingness to challenge me on facts (RE: "I will come back with specific lines and paragraph numbers from your previous posts. So be careful on that. This is one example and there are heaps of them in your posts."), please do so ASAP in this very thread. I'm eagerly waiting to add further clarity. That will explain who's manufacturing what. Therefore, kindly hurry.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DJ100: From which air force’s operational standpoint? Ground-based air-defences are meant to protect only VAs & VPs, & are not straddling along each & every entry & egress point of any country’s airspace. It is physically impossible to accord such coverage. The same goes for AEW & CS platforms. Even a fleet of four ZDK-03s & 3 Saab 2000s will be hardpressed to do so on a 27/7 basis even for a period of 12 days. Deployment architecture of an enemy air-defence network takes a long time to figure out. Even the US could not successfully do so during the Vietnam War & even in 1991, despite 6 months of preparation. It was for this reason that the multinational coalition air-tasking authorities authorised the widespread use of RAF Tornado IDS as low-level interdictors against Iraq. And the IDF-AF’s F-15Is too have always employed terrain-hugging flight-profiles whenever they have had to attack targets deep inside Syria. So why & how should the IAF be an exception to this global norm???

To VISHAKH: I had already uploaded photos of posters showing Iron First APS on board both Arjun Mk1 & T-90S demonstrators as far back as 2011, after the posters were displayed at the Aero India 2011 expo. But APS has not yet been installed on any IA-operated T-90S so far. SIGMA-30 is standard fit for both Pinaka-1 & Pinaka-2, as well as for Dhanush. Rockets of both MBRLs use the IMI-supplied Trajectory Correction System (TCS).

To RAHUL: There are various types of ROH schedules. The first Su-30MKI overhauled by HAL was actually made to undergo a 1,000-hour inspection-cum-repair. It was not a mid-life refit schedule. Tejas Mk1 will not have MAWS. Only Tejas Mk2 will. DARIN-3’s various elements are already shown in a poster above. Is MAWS mentioned in it?

To BRUH: VMT. But what exactly was your question?

To MANOJ JOSHI: VMT. Trolls like MIXNMATCH, however, are incapable of connecting the dots & therefore tend to miss the big picture. Instead, they view each development in compartmentalized silos & hence their oversimplified assumptions, which of course is always the mother of all fuck-ups (LoLz!). But me being a member of the Rafale contract evaluation committee??? That indeed is news to me too!

Anonymous said...

@ Prasun da,

very logically you reverted back, and hats off to you...However, the theme being the offensive capability coming in the way of DPSA, is there a way of cutting down on the number of fighters. 189 looks too much, at that cost. Can we just buy say 60 (sorry for ignorance, dont know how much is bare minimum) off shelf and ditch the licence production, and go for a cheaper combat aircraft. Logistically, that would be a nightmare, but is it not better to live with that nightmare than not having the capability at all. I am worried about our economy. even 20 billion spread over 15 years is more than 2 billion per year (inflation). add to that is that the contract signature amount which i believe is some 20-30% of the amount. Suddenly we are staring at a huge sum, which ofcourse is the making of years of delay. How to resurrect it. Can we change the RFP at this stage to buy offshelf, rather than doing suicidal cancelling. It looks like a 'damn if you do and damn if you dont'

Sreenivas R.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

I am sorry to bother you again but I am not able to connect the dots about what going on in Afghanistan. Today ISI head was in Kabul and news in pakistan are that US, Pak and Afghanistan have agreed to take out TTP's Mulla Radio and Khurasani. I am not able to understand why would US and Afghan agree when Quetta Shura is not even touched by Pak Army and in fact it has only promised to bring Mulla Omar to negotiation Table.

Secondly what happen to India-Afghan 1biilion dollar arms deal, Ashraf Ghani himself said in a news conference in Nepal that they don't need these weapons

I will be oblige if you can share your information and prospective on this matter.


VP said...

Thanks for all the replies,
I know that the amount is paid by parts but in that way too it will tear the defense budget.
And another question for which I would expect the answer through an article.
The Future of Indian Navy, P-15B has reportedly started construction and P-17A will start soon according to reports.
But what I would like to know about is the truth on Navy's future plans,the navy seems to lack modern guided missile corvettes,although the Kamotra and it's successive class will be ASW corvettes,any plans for New missile corvette?Submarine plans and possible winners of P-75I,New projects if any ,INS Vishal etc.
I know u are a busy person but I would like to know ur take on these as u present a view on these subjects better than any other journalists I have seen.

Shaun said...

PSK, are you sure that su-30 MKI don't have low-altitude terrain avoidance mode or automatic terrain-following capability ???

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SHAUN: Instead of badgering me for being spoon-fed, why don't you do some homework on your own & ask the concerned radar-manufacturing OEM? The BARS cannot even as yet do weather-mapping. Still don't believe me? Then check it all out for yourself here at the OEM's website:

Bruh said...

forgive me sir:

1) What exactly is the IAF going to do now vis a vis their strategic airlift fleet considering their best hope (more C-17s) have now been taken off the table?

2) What are the IAF going to do about the VVIP helicopter issue? The way I see it is they have about a year to get a replacement in place and training and setting up the necessary infrastructure is going to take a while so they need to act NOW because those Mi-8/17s used to carry the PM today are going out of service one way or another within the next 18 months.

They should just bite the bullet and go for a FMS deal for the S-92, this is the ONLY viable solution left on the table, the AW-101 is a non-starter, Mi-17 V5s aren't up to the task and the S-92 was the only other helicopter that met the IAF/SPG's requirements the first time around.

Peculiarly I have heard no one in the IAF or SPG mention this looming crsis. They are taking chances with the life of the democratically elected head of 1.25 BILLON people and I am not impressed.

Vidhu said...

Is there any way that IAF will go for Saab Gripen NG, it seems to fit the role and is better than the overpriced Rafael in thermos of cost and operational availability too.The Saab is still offering it and reportedly has already created a blueprint for the project if ever India shows interest.

vishakh said...


New Pics you uploaded are from your older 2013 article for EW suite . As per that article Tejas MK 2 EW suite will have AESA based jammer ELT 568 and Sweden RWR and Missile approach warning due to low performance for Indian TARANG and other components . News says Indian MAYAVI EW suite is selected for Tejas developed by DRDO with Israel . Is it True???

Please provide details about MAYAVI and have the performance issue solved with Israel help??? WHY IAF is taking this suite ??

1) Mayavi EW suite for TEJAS is similar to MIG 29 UPG EW suite from Italy AESA jammaer ELT 568 or Active phased based Jammer VIRGILIUS ?? Is it able to handle new Missile from China and Pakisthan?? like AIM-120 ??

2) What are its capability and was MAYAVI developed with Israel and what came from Israel.

3) Please provide literature for its capability if possible.

4) Difference between VIRLIGIUS and ELT 568 ??

5) What are the capabilities of Tejas AESA radar project UTTAM and Range capability vs ISrael 2032 Radar??

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Is there any chance left that The RAFALE deal will happen

The latest news is that the
EMPOWERED Delegation has NOT yet visited

Modi is to visit France in APRIL

Before that a decision has to be taken

MixnMatch said...


Let me begin by contesting your claim that Su-30MKI is not capable of low level flying because of its radar and fuselage – here is what Indian Air Force has to say on this matter:

Ground surveillance modes include mapping (with Doppler beam sharpening), search & track of moving targets, synthetic aperture radar and terrain avoidance. "To penetrate enemy defenses, the aircraft can fly at low altitudes using the terrain following and obstacle avoidance feature."

It enables the pilot to independently find his position without help from external sources (satellite navigation, etc.); detect ground targets and their AD systems; choose the best approach route to a target with continuous updates fed to the aircraft navigation systems; and provide onboard systems and armament with targeting data.

According to Sukhoi EDB the Su-30MKI is capable of performing all tactical tasks of the Su-24 Fencer deep interdiction tactical bomber and the Su-27 Flanker A/B/C air superiority fighter while having around twice the combat range and atleast 2.5 times the combat effectiveness. The N011M offers a quantum leap in technology over the earlier Russian radars. Small ground targets, like tanks, can be detected out to 40-50 km. The MiG-29, Su-27 and other fighters can be provided with a ground strike capability only if their radars can operate in the down-looking mode which generates a map of ground surface on a cockpit display (this mode is called the Mapping Mode).

As its clear in the first paragraph, Indian Air Force thinks that Su-30MKI can do all that which Rafale can (Read DPSA) but you think it can’t.

Big Surprise !!!

MixnMatch said...

Now to your conspiracy theories on INS Vikramaditya purchase:

On Mr Nanda and BJP making money in the INS Vikramaditya deal, this is what you wrote:

“I can now confirm that under the deal between Suresh Nanda’s Crown Corp & Russia’s Rosoboronexport State Corp in the previous decade, it was decided that if the Admiral Gorshkov was sold to India after refurbishment, then Crown Corp would get 10% permission & if the sale didn’t go through, the Crown Corp would buy this vessel at scrap-value & then have it scrapped at a yard in India & get to keep all the profits from this deal. It is now alleged that after January 2004 (when the contract for INS Vikramaditya/MiG-29K) was inked, Crown Corp received Rs200 crore from Rosoboronexport & that this money was later allegedly distributed among both the BJP & INC.

Similar has been the case concerning follow-on purchases of Su-30MKIs in successive tranches of 40 & 42, plus the two tranches of three Project 1135.6 FFGs each & also the first 310 T-90S MBTs. Payoffs have reportedly been made for each tranche since none of these deals had the mandatory ‘Integrity Clause’ & were treated as supplementary contracts of the original contracts inked in 1998 & 2000. Based on the above, it can be reasonably inferred that the procurement of INS Vikramaditya in early 2004 was highly questionable & instead the money should have been allocated for speedier implementation of Project 71/IAC-1/INS Vikrant.”

This is your latest salvo claiming that Sakhalin-1 was the reason why INS-Vikramaditya was bought.

To SS: The IN’s original plan was for procuring two home-grown Project 71 aircraft carriers, IAC-1 & IAC-2. The IN never wanted the Gorshkov & the IA never wanted the T-90S. It was only in 2001 when ONGC Videsh was competing against BP for equity stake in the Sakhalin-1 crude oil production site that OVL asked the GoI for negotiating assistance. It was then that then Union MoF Yeshwant Sinha & Petroleum Minister Ram Naik convinced PM A B Vajpayee to actively intervene & lobby with President Putin. A B Vajpayee complied & promised Putin substantial imports of weapons of Russian origin if OVL was allowed to win the Sakhalin-1 bid. Consequently, in return for Putin’s approval, the T-90S & Gorshkov deals were struck. Today the IN is stuck with an aircraft carrier from Russia that’s powered by vintage steam boilers.

Your fantasy on being part of Rafale evaluation process:

To Mr.RA 13: VMT. Will provide more in the near future by updating the narrative above. Rest, assured that the various ToT schemes worked out over the past five years for both indirect and direct offsets will now place in place in an orchestrated manner. "I was personally involved in my professional capacity for assisting in the MoD’s formulation of the indirect/direct offsets packages and their aims/objectives and ensuring their upstream & downstream industrial spillovers (all after conducting an exhaustive evaluation of similar industrial offsets guidelines of no less than 26 countries since 2004!), and I can emphatically state that the detailed roadmap that was drawn up consequently will address all the future national R & D endeavours—be they for the Tejas Mk3 or the AMCA or even other ‘strategic’ projects." How else do you think I became aware of the ‘buzz’ emanating out of New Delhi about the M-MRCA’s selection since the first week of last December???

MixnMatch said...

Link for Nanda-

Link for Sakhalin-

Link for Rafale -

I will give you INS Chakra link too if you want. If you have any problem in searching your paragraph in the links, tell me. I will send you the flow chart.

But see the enormity of garbage you are peddling in the name of defence expertise !!!

pac said...

this guy is a hack.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MIXNMATCH: You have just proven that you are the quintessential IDIOT afflicted with terminal stupidity. How? By not providing the IAF website where anything is mentioned about Su-30MKI’s terrain avoidance/terrain-following capabilities. In reality, what you have reproduced is data from the following website:

And who has created this website? Not the IAF, but another terminally stupid nitwit like you:

Big Surprise indeed!!!

Now to the Rafale M-MRCA issue. First, you alleged that I had claimed to be part of Rafale contract evaluation committee/evaluation process (your words, not mine). But when you want to substantiate your allegation, you reproduce this: “I was personally involved in my professional capacity for assisting in the MoD’s formulation of the indirect/direct offsets packages and their aims/objectives and ensuring their upstream & downstream industrial spillovers (all after conducting an exhaustive evaluation of similar industrial offsets guidelines of no less than 26 countries since 2004!)”

Since you are terminally stupid, you’ve obviously failed to grasp the fact that ‘evaluations’ concern only competing RFPs, not contracts. There is in the end only 1 contract to be inked & that is only to be negotiated, not evaluated. And never had I claimed anywhere that I was a part of any negotiating committee that had anything to do with the Rafale. I can only hope that you will desist from any further oversimplifications/insinuations of the kind that will only serve to expose you as certified IDIOT.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MIXNMATCH: And as for the Gorshkov/INS Vikramaditya deal, it must be noted that an agent/middlemen NEVER initiates any reqmt for any kind of military hardware. The reqmt, its packaging & competing offers are always formulated & solicited for by the end-user through RFIs & only after this do the political decision-makers step in to decide on which offer to select, following which the RFP is issued. Only after all this does an agent enter the scene to facilitate contract award that’s to be negotiated on a G-to-G basis. In the IN’s case, it was the IN that had spelt out its need for aircraft carriers (preferably indigenously built as per the IN’s shipbuilding roadmap) & its related shipborne aviation assets (all imported), while the NDA-1 govt-in-power decided to go with the Russian offer & CROWN Corp then stepped in to represent Rosoboronexport State Corp ONLY for that part of the contract dealing with the refurbishment/upgrade & delivery of INS Vikramaditya. Prior to that, CROWN Corp’s mandate was only to find a suitable buyer for the Gorshkov, ether for refurbishing & upgrading it, or for selling it to a scrapyard. But being the proverbial idiot that you evidently are, you will be unable to make sense to such an elaborate, sequential procurement exercise.

MixnMatch said...

Well Prasun,

Agreed, your link is right. I should have checked whether the Vayu sena link was authentic one or not. But you see, I have guts to accept my mistake. But you are a sick, little, old, coward who uses online bullying to convince his point, which unfortunately won’t work with me.

Whether you were involved with Rafale’s RFP evaluation or anything else, I don’t give a damn. I told you, at the outset, that it was your fantasy. So don’t try to acquire importance in the MOD decision making circles because you have none.

You have quietly gone silent on INS Vikramaditya claims of yours for which I have given elaborate links. There, your comments incriminate you. Remember, you have put allegations against people and organisations without any substance, which is a cyber offence. Now, I understand people can change their stand over the years and it’s perfectly fine. But trying to peddle fantasies without any credible basis to young readers is a criminal offence.

Throughout your blog, I can see instances after instances where you are peddling fantasies, manufacturing facts and going all gaga. At least in 30% of the discussion, you discuss about UFOs, aliens, Americans hiding aliens and harnessing their technology, ancient linkages of people with stars and planets, which I am sure is coming out from nothing else but your schizophrenia. So hello, get checked yourself. You need it.

As long as these thoughts and ideas were inside your mind, fine, I don’t have any issues with them. But you chose to go public with them on a blog on internet. So you are hogging public space here and therefore, you better be damn accurate with your facts. No manufacturing facts will work as internet will not forget anything and your fantasies will come back to haunt you. So you better desist from peddling fantasies.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VISHAKH: Tejas Mk2, EMB-145I, Super Su-30MKI & FGFA will ALL have the MSWS comprising a RWR, LWR & MAWS. The ELT-568 jammer & its DF antennae are presently only on the MiG-29UPG, but will also find their way on the Tejas Mk2 & Super Su-30MKI. Tejas Mk1 has an older-generation EW suite that was indigenously designed & developed, but was built with some critical components imported from Israel. This jammer is effective against semi-active BVRAAMs, but useless against active BVRAAMs. I don’t know the origin of the name MAYAWI but in case it is the same as that destined for the Tejas Mk1, then it is a totally useless piece of hardware. Had it been a state-of-the-art system, then by now it would already be flying on the MiG-29UPG. Instead, the ELT-568 is on the MiG-29UPG. It remains to be seen whether the ELT-568 can be refrofitted on to the Tejas Mk1 at a future date. ELT-568 is part of the Vrigilius EW suite. But the IAF has not adopted the entire Vrgilius EW suite. Instead, only the ELT-568 & its DF antennae have been selected. The RWR & LWR are originally from Saabtech (also on the Rudra & LCH) & they will be integrated with the MILDS-F with EADS/Cassidian’s assistance. Together, this will become the MSWS suite. As for UTTAM, only the name sounds good. There’s nothing else to show. It will, at best, take at least 5 years of laboratory development, followed by 3 years of flight-testing. Does CABS have at its disposal any turbofan-powered aircraft that will be reqd as the LRDE-developed AESA-MMR’s flying testbed?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...


"Remember, you have put allegations against people and organisations without any substance, which is a cyber offence. Now, I understand people can change their stand over the years and it’s perfectly fine. But trying to peddle fantasies without any credible basis to young readers is a criminal offence."
---------------------That's absolutely fine with me. By all means sue me & take me to court so that I can have a field day chewing up your arse.

Throughout your blog, I can see instances after instances where you are peddling fantasies, manufacturing facts and going all gaga. At least in 30% of the discussion, you discuss about UFOs, aliens, Americans hiding aliens and harnessing their technology, ancient linkages of people with stars and planets, which I am sure is coming out from nothing else but your schizophrenia.-------------------------That’s may well be your opinion but it doesn’t mean that only your opinion is entitled to prevail over those of others. In case you believe that it’s your birthright to silence all opinions/PoVs that are contrary to those of your’s, then I will be more than happy to give a few hard-knocks on to your thick-skull for ushering in a reality-check. While I can accept & contest you POV through meaningful debates, I will never condone your rabid intolerance—a sure sign of your inherent schizophrenia.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAC: Not only is MIXNMATCH a hack, but it does appear that he/she & another blogger logged in as SHAUN in this thread are conjoined twins. That explains their near-identical displays of terminal stupidity!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SREENIVAS R: 189 is the optimum number of Rafales reqd. Nothing more & nothing less. As for cutting down costs, sure it will be 30% cheaper if one goes for direct off-the-shelf imports while only localizing the MRO capabilities. But the cost of importing such hardware pales in comparison to the splurge one is witnessing elsewhere, like:

1) Spending huge amounts on gold imports per annum.

2) Having an annual import bill for consumer electronics items that rivals the amount being spent on importing crude oil & LNG.

3) Witnessing the bumper-to-bumper traffic of Audis, BMWs, Jaguars, Rolls-Royces & Mercs in the streets of Delhi & Gurgaon.

4) Even up-market restaurants & eateries in New Delhi maintaining two separate sales registers, for the sake of avoiding payment of service taxes to the national exchequer.

5) Deliberately ignoring & failing to tax the illicit Rs.6,000 crore annual cross-border barter trade along the IB to the west, resulting in the supply of liquor to West Punjab (in Pakistan) & barter payment through narcotics supplies from there to East Punjab (in India). Similarly, 2 million cattle are being supplied to Bangladesh through West Bengal ever year & this transaction isn’t being taxed.

The above are but only a few examples of the unchecked splurge that’s taking place. So, who in the world will ever believe that India can’t afford to procure 189 Rafale M-MRCAs?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: What Pakistan is trying to do is to pin down Afghanistan to commit to a border management programme that calls for fencing up the border on the Afghan side. But Kabul is not obliging because this will tantamount to formal recognition of the Durand Line, which no self-respecting Afghan leader will ever do. As for the US & Pakistan joining forces to take out Mullah Fazlullah (Mullah FM from Swat) or Khalid Khorasani in Kunar, that’s much easier said than done. Why? Simply because it’s winter now & at those forbidding heights the US has no warfighting capability. Even the much-vaunted SEALs have failed in the past, and that too disastrously. Just see this:

Locals like Khorasani & Mullah FM have grown up in such forbidding heights since their childhoods & know every nook-and-corner of such terrain. Therefore, it is near-impossible for either US SOF or the PA’s SSG to engage in capture-kill operations over such terrain. What Kabul is now doing therefore is buying some time to test Pakistan’s intentions regarding the honouring of transit-trade arrangements, since it is the Afghan Taliban (aided by the PA) that has since 2004 been charging protection money (totalling about US$160 million a year) for allowing safe passage to Afghan export commodities & NATO convoys that are destined for Karachi port. And since old habits die hard, such transit-trade arrangements are unlikely to endure. And by next month, Afghanistan’s alternate land-route for exports will open up once dredging work is completed at Iran’s Chah Bahr port. India is already undertaking this work (which began last September) & industrial giants like L & T etc are already poised to set up cement manufacturing plants & fertilizer production facilities at Chah Bahr. As for supplies of military hardware to Afghanistan, it only wanted those hardware that were supplied to India in the 1980s by the USSR & which have since been decommissioned. Nor does India possess the capability to refurbish them into usable items. However, Iran has this capability & consequently, such hardware can easily be shipped by India to Iran for such work to be undertaken, with India picking up the financial tab. Therefore, President Ashraf Ghani was ‘technically’ right in saying (during the SAARC Summit in Nepal last year) that Afghanistan is directly not importing any readymade military hardware from India, but he deliberately chose not to go into the details.

To BRUH: 1) Nothing’s off the table. Future aircraft production schedules of OEMs are re-scheduled every quarter. There’s nothing to worry about on that score. 2) Under a temporary arrangement, the IAF’s own six Mi-17V-5s configured for VIP flight are now being used for shuttling civilian VVIPs. In the meantime, behind-the-scenes closed-door negotiations are being conducted between the MoD & AgustaWestland. A positive outcome will eventually emerge. The S-92 NEVER met the QRs of ether the SPG or the IAF. In fact, even the US chose the AW-101 over the S-92 as the preferred presidential transport helicopter.

To VIDHU: Using single-engined MRCAs like the JAS-39 Gripen NG as a deep interdictor? Are you serious?

Rajeev Chaturvedi said...


1. What is the story behind RM's postponement of Tata-Airbus joint venture on C-295 production? Is he waiting for MoD-Augusta Westland negotiations to conclude before opening the contest? He mentioned, in one news report, that replacement of Avro was not needed or something like that. What I can see is that this replacement may also take care of AN-32 replacement in future. There are some who also think that CV-22 will be suitable for this role. So what is the real trend here?

2. A lot of news is now coming up on P-75I and LHD production contracts. Seems like HSL is putting all out efforts to grab both of them. Hindu also reported that INS Sindhukirti has been overhauled by HSL which has given it lot of experience for submarine construction. I have my doubts so I was hoping you would clarify what is going on in LHD and P-75I contracts? Will L$T and other private yards lose this time as well? And is INS Sindhukirti now ready for re-induction in Navy?

Thanks and a very happy new year.

Ram Bharadwaj said...


What is the fate of the HJT-36 Sitara?? Is it ever going to see the light of the day??

Is HAL on the right track???

Don't you feel that HAL and IAF made a mistake by NOT goinf in for the IJT with Lazrac engine as Mark-1 and the IJT with Saturn APO AL-31 as Mark-2?

Subir Bhattacharjee said...

Hi Prasun,

I have posted some Qs. with the handle Rajeev Chaturvedi and Ram Bharadwaj.

Just a reminder that my livelihood in the North-East & Delhi depends on the answers you provide, so please answer them at your earliest convenience.



Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

Today again RM is making pitch against Rafale deal, Is it just to warning rafale to fall in line or he is serious about?


rad said...

I never knew that so called allegations attract cyber offence sections of the CRPC of india, i wonder what sections do allegations in news papers come under, like the bofors corruption,robert vadra land deal etc, what about the allegations leveled by news channels and tv channels , they are full of them against powerful netas day in and day out , i wonder what did they do .In Your logic any allegations is a crime be it on the internet ,tv ,radio newspaper etc.
For your information there is something called "FREEDOM OF SPEECH" that protects normal people from arseholes like you . So do substantiate your views with valid points democratically .The fact that prasun chose to allow your tirade against him itself is a clear sign of fairness in this blog, he can always delete your comments which he chose not to.
So stop your tirade and FUCK OFF from this blog

rad said...

hi Prasun
The drdo claims the kanchan armour recently developed for the arjun mk2 can defeat apfds and hesh but say nothing about the shaped charge warheads of anti tank missiles which is the major risk. Their silence on this matter points out to its vulnerability. I dont understand the logic of not integrating APS on the arjun after investing so much at a great cost .
You did mention the iron fist was integrated on the arjun but there is no pictures,news or article regarding that.
What ever happened to the swedish mangoose system.?please post pics

raw13 said...

Actually Mullah Radio, tended to hang around the forested areas in Kunar, near the Pakistan border. Due to the very thick foliage/terrain, the various sensors don't really work very well there. PA now have an official clearance, just as the ANA have for hot pursuit, so he has gone further away form the border. The space for him has decreased further because number of his groups have given their baya to IS. Infact internal fighting has started between Taliban and the ex-taliban (now IS). His days are truely numbered.

Reddy said...

Dear Prasun,
Based on the news reports:

MOD asked Dassault/France to send a empowered team, but they ignored the request.

Now, MOD secretary visits Paris.

What should we infer from this scenario?

Reddy said...


You guys are great: you said: "Infact internal fighting has started...."

no kid believes when internal fighting happens they are not going to harm each other as we see in bollywood movie, but they harm your society to establish dominance in your country.. this is "when shit hits the fan .. " scenario..

and you are so much happy and relieved to say internal fighting...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: Are you referring to these:

Statement: Said Parrikar: “Sukhoi-30 choice is always there. What I mean to say is: upgrade the Sukhoi-30, make it more capable.”

Reality: That’s much easier said than done. Exactly how will one go about it? How & where will the Su-30MKI be certified for low-level interdiction flights? And which party will be responsible for undertaking all such work? Mere avionics upgrade won’t do the job. Structural airframe recertification is required after airframe re-engineering—a time-consuming process.

Statement: Dismissing concerns about the IAF’s falling fighter numbers, Parrikar stated that the IAF could put more fighters into the sky by improving the serviceability rate of its current fleet of 35 squadrons.

Reality: Possible in case of the Su-30MKI, provided HAL did not take 14 years to establish its MRO facility in Ozhar, Nashik. Similarly now HAL is dragging its feet when it comes to setting up an MRO facility for Mi-17V-5 helicopters, & two regional MRO facilities for the Dhruv ALH. For the Jaguar fleet, this will require re-engining with F125 turbofans. For MiG-21 Bison & MiG-27M/UPG, availability, reliability & serviceability ca no longer be guaranteed by the concerned OEMs since such aircraft-types were decommissioned in Russia in the 1990s & their spares are no longer in production. Furthermore, for all combat aircraft-types that have been licence-built by HAL since the 1960s, only 38% of each aircraft-type was indigenised. No more. This stark reality is what makes a mockery of the previous ‘Made in India’ and the present ‘Make in India’ slogans. Lastly, the MoD needs to encourage private-sector companies to set up bonded warehouses for stockpiling spares, rotables & consumables whose quantum will be enough for meeting the requirements of at least the 3 following years as per global norms.

Statement: Parrikar made it clear that the IAF needed to look at the issue of fighter costs. He said, “It is not always… go and purchase it. A cost effective purchase is also important.”

Reality: That is only possible when multi-role combat aircraft fleets are procured. Only then can one standardise on hardware inventories. India is today paying the price for procuring a whole bunch of role-specific combat aircraft since the early 1980s, like the MiG-21bis, MiG23MF, MiG-23BN, MiG-27M, & MiG-29B-12.

Bottomline: It makes no sense to wag one’s tongue without doing one’s homework. When decision-makers make pronouncements/observations, they should be prepared to stand up for their utterances & be held accountable.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: No one will engage in any hot-pursuit in anyone else’s territory. What’s been agreed upon are only coordinated ground operations, & NOT joint ground operations. Whether or not one owes allegiance to ISIS or IS is immaterial, since these jokers are all mercenaries, just like the Punjabi foot-soldiers of Jaish-e-Mohammad & Lashkar-e-Tayyaba who are all recruited from the Ravi-Chenab Corridor & southern Punjab in Pakistan & are routinely caught red-handed inside J & K and Helmand. But why should any Pakistani have anything to fear from IS? The Khatib of the Red Mosque in Islamabad had openly proclaimed his support for both IS & the Peshawar school attack just after December 16, 2014 & although three days after this incident an arrest warrant was issued against him by Islamabad Police, he still roams free & no one has the balls to go & arrest him, not even the Pakistan Army. Why is this so? Why the fear? Why except COAS Gen Raheel Sharif, not even a single politician (including the just re-married fella who wants to create a Naya Pakistan) made a visit to a school 2 days ago to express symbolic solidarity with the fear-stricken parents of schoolchildren? Are Pakistan’s political leaders really that much thick-skinned?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To REDDY; As you may very well know, Europeans do not have so many national/public holidays as Indians do, & therefore most Europeans wait till the year-end to go on extended leave, starting from December 22 & they report back for work only by January 15. And the fact that the India MoD’s Defence Secretary has proceeded to France is a strong indication of India’s keen desire to close the negotiating gaps, since the deal will most probably be inked in April during NaMo’s official visit to France. One thing is certain: the Rafale M-MRCA deal will definitely go through. That was India’s solemn promise to France, in return for France helping India wit certain ‘strategic’ projects (that, by the way, have no connection to buying nuclear power generation reactors).

ORF Report: Nuclear Security in India:

Interesting debates:

China in South Sudan:

Sri Lanka Elections:

Wonder why the ‘desi’ broadcast TV channels don’t cover such issdues in such detail.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Subir Bhattacharjee AKA Ram Bharadwaj AKA Rajeev Chaturvedi: So what you’re saying is any delayed response from me to your queries translates into an existential threat for your livelihood in the North-East & Delhi (LoLz)! As for the HJT-36 IJT, in an era when turbofans have TTSLs ranging from 2,000 hours (for the AL-31FP) to 6,000 hours (for the M88 & F414), do you really see any sense in going for an engine like the AL-55I (on the HJT-36) that has a TTSL of only 300 hours? Will the IAF then have to re-engine every HJT-36 every 3 years? Does that make any economic sense to you?

Rajeev Chaturvedi said...

@ Subir Bhattacharjee..

You are a cheap troll. So go bother someone else.


Please ignore this stupid Subir's nonsense. Kindly answer my questions:

1. What is the story behind RM's postponement of Tata-Airbus joint venture on C-295 production? Is he waiting for MoD-Augusta Westland negotiations to conclude before opening the contest? He mentioned, in one news report, that replacement of Avro was not needed or something like that. What I can see is that this replacement may also take care of AN-32 replacement in future. There are some who also think that CV-22 will be suitable for this role. So what is the real trend here?

2. A lot of news is now coming up on P-75I and LHD production contracts. Seems like HSL is putting all out efforts to grab both of them. Hindu also reported that INS Sindhukirti has been overhauled by HSL which has given it lot of experience for submarine construction. I have my doubts so I was hoping you would clarify what is going on in LHD and P-75I contracts? Will L$T and other private yards lose this time as well? And is INS Sindhukirti now ready for re-induction in Navy?

Thanks and a very happy new year.

Reddy said...

Thanks Prasun for your answers.

Now South Korea and China employing the best and brightest PhDs in the world (mostly from US/EU) and even those PhDs want to work there.

Sadly no where Indian Inc willing to achieve to such a level.

South Korea and China is pumping money into R&D like a divine act.

Indian Inc never want to spend a penny on R&D, but want to dig coal, gas and iron free of cost and want to make money.

If Indian companies failing to invest in R&D like that of GREAT SAMSUNG of South Korea, does Indian Govt has the guts to impose R&D tax?

we are importing Gold, Electronics, Medical Equipment etc and Internet and Mobile Network Equipment etc that are costing us Billions of Dollars.

Isn't it the right time to impose R&D tax on medicines, automotives, mobiles, and electronics and channel all those tax money into dedicated institutions?

Reddy said...

One more qs:
""One thing is certain: the Rafale M-MRCA deal will definitely go through. That was India’s solemn promise to France, in return for France helping India wit certain ‘strategic’ projects""

so if france take the things for granted as the deal is certain and becomes adamant in it's position regarding the quality and price,
1. what India can do?
2. Why this 3 yrs delay as we promised them to buy rafale and they promised u said
3.if money is the issue, again we are spreading the cost over the years... Indian Income Tax dept certainly may have made some 10 Billions of more money from world oil prices slump..where 80% of the price at the pump is tax and 20 % is the oil price)
4. why defence minister is going out public and clearly telling the deal is in trouble? if things are settled so well?
5. for a 12- 30 billion USD deal, does holidays matter when MOD clearly asked to send someone?

I know you are not bound/liable to answer me or anyone, these are the general questions Indian Public have..

VPS said...


Why is Dassault not ready to give performance and quality guarantee of the Rafales built by HAL?

Nevidimka said...

Hi Prasun,
Why does India intends to waste such a huge budget on an expensive platform like Rafale, whose other rales can be done by Su 30 mki? Why not go for a Russian su 34 fullback? Not only can this plane do the rafale role of terrain following deep strike, it can also do the role of heavy ECM attack assisting a group of su 30mki's paralying every radar tracking in a strike package. Also it can be made into a potent anti ship platform, with its ability to carry russian Anti ship and INdia's Brahmos to attack any carrier patform in the indian ocean that can pose threat to india. Its huge range allows it to do this easily. It would be somewhat of an indian Tupolev Backfire solution to carrier groups that was posed by the soviets. the Su 34 perfectly complements the role that is taken up by the su 30 mki. and the Pak FA only goes to enhance the role the su 30 mki is doing currently, so india does not really need another plane that does air dominence role. I really like this plane the su 34, and I hope to see it in Indian air force. Btw I'm from Malaysia.

Prav said...

Hypothetically could the Su 34 be a replacement for the capablity gap left incase the Rafale is cancelled ?

Bruh said...

thank you for your reply sir, but didn't I read on your blog that the Mi-17 family are inherently less safe than the likes of the AW-101 and S-92 because of just a single hydraulic redundancy system or something along these lines (forgive me my technical knowledge on this matter is weak) so are the VVIPs not inherently being put at risk by flying in these V5s?

Given the new DM's stance that blacklisting won't take place it seems like the logical solution would just be to get the AW-101 back in service especially as they are the superior machine to the Mi-17 and S-92 as you have pointed out.

Although now that some of the airframes meant to go to India have been sold to Nigeria I find this option less likely....

Sakshi said...

you said there are back channel talks over AW-101, Ok, it seems nice.

And the question now is how long they talk? Till the AW-101 platform gets obsolete??? In a typical Indian way...?

Chetan said...

Hi Prasun,
GOI has recently sacked Dr. Avinash Chander. IMHO he was a good scientist and contributed a lot to DRDO. I was very happy when GOI had extended his contract. But now I feel GOI erred in removing him unceremoniously.
Can you please share you thoughts on this development?

Kapil J said...

Hello Prasun,
Do you have any information regarding the INS Sindhukirit refit? I was under the impression that it was a write off, but it seems to be back in the water.

bradshaw said...

Hi Prasun Da,

I have 2 queries for you,

1. You mentioned Sukhoi 30 cannot fly terrain hugging or terrain masking flights. As per the radar data the N0135 Irbis E radar has the similar capability of simultaneouly scan air to air and air to ground modes and do terrain mapping.

2. As you said Rafale is the L1 bidder and beats EF 2000. Can you please explain why Rafale was not able to win a single contract and even oil rich economies like UAE and KSA were not able to afford it and instead many ordered EF ? Does a cost of $125 million a piece makes sense ? Cant we purchase F 16 Blk 60 super viper with matured APG-80 AESA and best in class EW suite. With a landing price of $60 million , we can buy around 320 units in $ 20 billion ?? Plus setting up MRO facilities in India will help in additional revenues as there are large number of F 16 operators ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: The Kanchan Mk2 armour package’s elements installed on the turret-tops ensure protection against shaped-charge warheads of ATGMs. APS is meant primarily for protection against RPGs & LAWs that tend to target a MBT’s sides & rear engine compartments. For protection against frontally-launched ATGMs, both APS & the laser/IR countermeasures system are available. Iron Fist has not yet been fully integrated on the Arjun, but has been on the T-90S, which is shown here:

The Mongoose too has been integrated on the T-90S. But since the IA has yet to undertake the long-overdue mid-life refit-cum-upgrade of its first 310 T-90S tanks (at HVF in Avadi), no RFPs have been issued for so far calling for APS installation bids for the T-90S.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJEEV CHATURVEDI: 1) The C-295 offer was not considered as it was a sole-source response to the RFP. Apart from TATA, no one else bothered to bid. If at all the IAF wanted new-build aircraft only for executive transportation purposes, then it could well have directly imported only some 24 Legacy business jets from EMBRAER. On the other hand, if the IAF only now fears (which I reckon is genuine, since Russia has never produced such aircraft) that spares support for its An-32RE transport aircraft fleet will no longer be assured from a financially bankrupt Ukraine, then the IAF ought to come clear & spell out its fears to the MoD. This, then will overnight become an emergency purchase & the number of aircraft to be acquired could eventually exceed 90.

2) HSL can’t afford to get involved in the P-75I project. Instead, it is targetting the long-awaited second refit schedules of those Kilo-class SSKs that have already undergone their first medium-refits since the late 1990s. HSL has ZERO experience in SSK construction. Carrying out MRO/refit is not the same as manufacturing & involve totally different core technological/industrial competencies. I have always said that long gone are the days when a country like India could afford to have to different designs of SSK fleets. Therefore, P-75I SSKs will have to be connected one way or another to the Scorpenes & all the industrial facilities/eco-systems that have been created for the Scorpene licenced-production programme. That’s the writing on the wall & no one can avoid walking away from this reality. For the LPH reqmt, L & T & Pipavav seem to be the two favoured contenders, since both of them have integrated industrial facilities spead over a coastal hinterland that’s reqd for cost-effective modular construction of such vessels. Other shipyards like MDL, GRSE, GSL & CSL don’t have such planned infrastructure. And we all know what happens next: CSL orders some piece of critical hardware from Khopoli near Mumbai & wants it delivered by road & when the consignment gets damaged beyond repair due to the truck & its trailer overturning, then the entire shipbuilding effort falls behind schedule by almost 4 years. Cost-effective shipbuilding can no longer afford to undertake only hull construction in coastal shipyards, with other items like engines, turbines, generators & gearboxes coming all the way by road or rail from Hardwar or Ranchi. Most if not all manufacturing & final assembly needs to be undertaken within an integrated industrial site lying just behind the shipbuilding yard. That’s how the rest of the world operates.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To REDDY: It is always far better to listen to soundbytes straight from the horse’s mouth, instead of reading third-party press reports. Therefore, here’s the entire interview of RM Manohar Parrikar:

You will realise that nowhere does he characterise the M-MRCA reqmt as being as ‘either-or’ issue between the Rafale & Su-30MKI. In fact, he stoutly refuses to even make any meaningful comment on this issue. And interestingly, while he talks about the need to avoid deviations from the RFP-specified clauses, he does not specify whether the deviations have emanated from Dassault or HAL. As for price determination, no country will make short-term sacrifices by demanding too high a price, since France is also in the running in India for several other lucrative procurement contracts, such as supplying several categories of sub-systems that are common to both the Rafale & the futuristic Tejas Mk2. Definitely therefore, no sane negotiator will do irreparable harm to the proverbial goose that is lay several golden eggs. Why the delay? Because it was India that caused all the delays in order to buy time, as I’ve explained in the narrative above. Fortunately, the steady fall in crude prices (they will eventually stabilise somewhere between US$60 & US$89 per barrel) stands to benefit India & this govt-in-power is extremely lucky & will definitely reap the windfalls.

As for deficient financial resources for R & D, yes, that is a point of great concern & it needs to be redressed ASAP. But mindsets typically take time to change. For instance, exactly how many Indian scientists or technocrats have to date been awarded the Bharat Ratna? And in contrast just see how is the present-day political-class engages in one-upmanship when it comes to ‘demanding’ the award of Bharat Ratnas. Does anyone even give a damn about sparing a thought for instance on the likes of Professor A Paulraj, who was commissioned into the Indian Navy in 1965 and rose to the rank of Commodore before seeking premature retirement in 1990? In his illustrious career spanning 2.5 decades, he had many significant achievements. He is the architect of the indigenously designed APSOH hull-mounted panoramic active/passive sonar suite, founder of the Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics at DRDO and the Central Research Laboratories of Bharat Electronics. He also co-founded the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Department of Electronics. Post-retirement, he devoted himself to academics and research. He joined the faculty at Stanford University, USA, as an Emeritus Professor, in 1993. He has to his credit the world’s two top honours for pioneers in telecommunications technology, viz. the IEEE Alexander Graham Bell Medal in 2011 and the prestigious Marconi Prize and Fellowship for 2014, which is considered equivalent to the Nobel Prize in the field of Information Technology. Dr Paulraj is known as the father of MIMO (Multiple Input, Multiple Output); the idea of using multiple antennas at both the transmitting and receiving stations that is at the heart of high speed WiFi and 4G mobile systems–and has revolutionised high-speed wireless delivery of multimedia service for billions of people across the globe. Professor Paulraj is an elected fellow of seven scientific academics, including the US National Academy of Engineering and the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Science. He was awarded only a Padma Bhushan in 2010.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BRUH: The Mi-17V-5s are being used for only shuttle flights lasting no more than 15 minutes. A typical VVIP transportation helicopter on the other hand is expected to fly non-stop for at least 60 minutes. Additional AW-101 airframes can always be ordered at competitive rates.

To PRAV: Hypothetically, yes. But practically, no. Because both the Govt of India & the IAF do not eant to put all eggs into 1 basket as was the case in the 1980s when almost everything originated from the USSR. And going by how parlous the state of the Russian economy is today, it is imperative that India diversify its sources of advanced military hardware.

To NEVIDIMKA: Why not Su-34? For the same reason that I’ve just highlighted above. After all, haven’t we learnt any lesson from India’s overdependence on the USSR since the 1980s & how disastrous that all proved to be in the following 2 decades? ECM attack & SEAD/DEAD roles will easily be fulfilled by the Super Su-30MKI. As for maritime strike/anti-ship strike, the IAF should get out of that business since the IN is procuring MiG-29Ks in appreciable numbers (45), & could well order at least another 20. The Su-34 is not optimised for conducting maritime strikes, only air-to-ground strikes. The FGFA derivative of the T-50 PAK-FA is still another decade away from service-entry & so far Russia has been unable to unveil its definitive AL-41FU turbofans. And as I had explained earlier, if one is seriously interested in reducing the Rafale’s acquisition costs, then the option of domestic licenced-manufacturing should be dropped. In India’s case, HAL has more than enough on its hands by way of the Super Su-30MKI upgrade programme, the Tejas Mk1/Mk2 production programme & later the FGFA licenced-production programme.

To VPS: Have already clearly explained that in the narrative above. It all has to do with QA/QC aspects & practices of HAL, which by the way are certainly not world-class. Then there is the issue of institutional arrogance. For instance, until recently, HAL used to employ industrial specialists from RUAG Aerospace of Switzerland (which now owns all of Dornier’s IPRs) to supervise the QA/QC levels of the Do-228 licenced-production efforts in Kanpur & Lucknow. Sometime late last year, HAL suddenly decided to do away with such specialists & told them all to fuck-off. Consequently, today HAL is unable to deliver the specified-quality spares support for the Do-228 fleets of the IAF, IN & ICGS. And RUAG Aerospace has gone ahead & recently signed an industrial partnership deal with TATA Group under which the latter will produce & supply all-composite airframe structures to the former (& later also manufacture the Do-328 turboprop commuter aircraft in Hyderabad), just like what it is doing with S-92 airframes for Sikorsky. Obviously HAL got pissed off & is now lobbying very hard through the MoD to scuttle this deal between RUAG & TATA. If this is HAL’s corporate culture, then who in the world will select HAL as its preferred industrial partner?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BRADSHAW: 1) Both BARS & IRBIS-E have identical modes of operation. Terrain-mapping is not the same as terrain-following/terrain-avoidance. The former enables one to operate in SAR mode for locating & identifying landmarks on the ground, i.e. for accurate navigation when flying at medium & high altitudes. This in turn also enables the aircraft to undertake target search & acquisition, especially static targets already pinpointed earlier through aerial reconnaissance. Terrain-avoidance mode is a totally different affair. To learn more about it you need to read up on radars like THALES’ Antilope-5 that is on board the Mirage 2000D/N.

2) The Rafale’s first loss in competitive bidding was in South Korea (ROK) in the early 1990s when the ROK govt itself officially admitted that while the Rafale was the most qualified to meet the ROKAF’s reqmts, the ultimate decision to first go for the F/A-18C/D (later rescinded in favour of the F-16C/D Block50/52) was purely due to political reasons. In Singapore, where the next competition was fought in the previous decade, the RSAF wanted a heavy MRCA that came equipped with AESA-MMR, which the Rafale was not able to come fitted with at that time. In the UAE, since the Mirage 2000-9 MRCAs were already operational, the UAEAF again in the late 1990s wanted a dedicated tactical interdictor & that’s how the F-16E/F got selected there. The UAEAF’s reqmt for M-MRCA was born only late in the previous decade & the competition is still on AFAIK. The KSA’s procurement of EF-2000 Typhoon was again a sole-source political decision & never involved any competitive bidding. The F-16 Block 60 represents the last stage of design maturity for the F-16 family, meaning no further upgrades will be possible to be undertaken. The IAF on the other hand wants an M-MRCA that has enough potential to be upgraded at least twice during its service-life—a reqmt which the Rafale satisfies. Looking merely at ballpark per-unit acquisition costs is the wrong way of measuring frontline combat aircraft fleet reqmts. Because as more & more Rafales enter service with the IAF, concurrently the number of other available aircraft like MiG-21 Bison, MiG-27M/UPG, Jaguar IS & eventually the MiG-28UPG & Mirage 2000UPG too will keep decreasing. Thus, sub-systems standardisation will make the IAF’s combat aircraft fleet appear cost-efficient, since there will be a fair degree of commonality of such sub-systems that will be common to the Rafale, Su-30MKI & Tejas Mk1/2 fleets.

To KAPIL J: The INS Sindhukirti has yet to set sail in open waters. So far, only the dry-dock refitting has been completed & there’s a fair amount of workload still left to be undertaken. Only after that will it be fit to go out for sea-trials. Everything will then depend on the success or failure rate of such trials. At best, if everything goes well, it will likely end up as a dedicated training submarine.

To CHETAN: The Govt of India did not use the term ‘sack’ or ‘sacking’ or ‘sacked’. It only decided to terminate his contractual obligations, which is fine because a good scientist or technocrat is not necessarily a good manager or administrator. Just like the Ambani brothers are not expected to be Masters degreeholders or PhDs in areas like aerospace engineering or hydrocarbons upstream/downstream businesses or electrical power generation/distribution or telecommunications technologies. Senior scientists & technocrats with DRDO backgrounds can always remain as advisers to the Govt of India or better still, become advisers to private-sector companies & R & D institutions.

To SAKSHI: Such negotiations can drag on for at least 8 months to 1 year.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To REDDY & PAWAN: This is all very interesting:

Afghan National Army’s current chief of staff, Shir Mohammad Karimi, has been nominated to be defence minister. He is an alumnus of India’s National Defence College.

Noorulhaq Uloomi—a former senior military official in the Soviet-backed government of President Mohammad Najibullah (and by consequence another longstanding friend of India)—has been proposed as Minister of Interior.

The country’s intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security, will stay under the leadership of its current chief, Rahmatullah Nabil.

And lastly, when the PA & the ISI 3 days ago asked Kabul to capture & deport certain TTP & BLA leaders holed up inside Afghanistan, the wily Ashraf Ghani & Co responded by asking Pakistan to do the same to 21 members of the Afghan Taliban & the Quetta Shura.

Wander what the likes of M K Bhadrakumar would have to say about such developments. Or would he just give it a deliberate miss?

Anonymous said...

Its nice to say that we need this and that and that i but i think you are missing the most important part can we afford it?
The price of the rafael had more than doubled and the defense needs much more critical equipment than some fancy jets (radars and sensors) are two things we are really short on


Dear Prasun,

Recently I came across a news criticizing the Arihant project that it is at par a technology demonstrator. Its reactor will run out in very short span of time. What's your say? Thanks in advance.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

It is pleasant to hear about Ghani's cabinet shared by you. I watched few Pakistani talk show yesterday all cribbing about John Kerry's do more on Haqqani and LeT and not believing Pakistan's narrative of India's being supporter of TTP.

I observed in last few weeks watching pakistani shows that their so called analysts in these talk who looks sophisticated in three piece suits are more zealous fundamentalist jihadi than simple pashtuns of KPK and FATA. To them enemy is not India but Idea of India.

To me Pakistan is main danger to India than China because while china look expansionist, still have underline rationality streaming from their culture and history but Pakistan is confused revisionist state with no rationality and idea that it is sole proprietor of Islam.

I would really appreciate if someday you share you ideas about Kashmir problem and its solutions including china part of it.

Warm Regards,

Reddy said...

Thanks Prasun for your answers.

That Afghan News is bit relieving.

Why does US want to give ISAF weapons to pak while Afghans need them and any excess for maintenance.

Is nuclear weapons the only reason why US cares pakistan?

Is India hosting/liaising Amrullah Saleh as he is no more in active power but still holds lot of command and ever will as like many established people, with/without power.

I do not believe US will ever be helpful to India either militarily/ economically/politically (apart from the nuclear deal that too happened in quid pro quo manner). It never be relaxing any rules in India's favour and always comes with strings attached. Some of the instances some time you said regarding US help to India is miniscule when compared to the US exposure to pak in earlier times. May be I am pessimistic when it comes to US.

On a personal note, can you please give me some advice on ISRO industrial partnerships with the technology it developed and licensing it to private companies and individuals. I will research on my own and contact them, just asking you for few guidelines.

Vidyut said...

Prasun Sir,

What are your comments on the following article?

How true/false are their allegations?

raw13 said...

Hi Prasun,

Thank you for the reply. Indeed some valid points, the links below will explain:

from Mr Shafi:

The mad one in the red mosque, knows his days are numbered, he never ever thought people didnt like him. He is being given enough rope to hang himself. He is a figure of ridicule except to his few hard core followers, after the burqa incident. Infact he is the perfect advert/reminder of why we need to get rid of his type. He serves a very useful purpose.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how come in your country every one become an analyst and able to write articles on main stream papers?

medical students, business students, 17 year old, 19 year old, housewives, anchors, write articles but the topics they chose are not related to their profession..every one write on strategies to be followed on India, Internal Security, Islam, US, Afghan, Army, and get them printed.

everyone seems to write rules for other how to live, how to do things.
your country is really awful on many fronts, and this is very worry some.

Sakshi said...

according to an estimate Indian Govt benefitted nearly 10-15 Billion USD due to crude oil prices reduction. This benefit will continue for the next 2-3 years as per the historical trend.

Since yearly crude bill imports stand at $150 Billions when crude was priced at $105-110 and now it is $46 today, India and other crude importing countries will be massively benefited.

The benefit is multifold.
1. stimulus to economy as manufacturing and travel costs less
2. people will be happy due to personal savings
3. govt is happy with FX savings
4. Govt is happy with increased taxes.

Indian Govt Tax yearly benefit may be around $20 Billions as now fuel is market prices.

That means as long as crude stays at $50-60, India can afford to buy Rafale this year, Subs Next year, and Artillery the 3rd year just with the crude savings..

Historically Gold and Crude highs and lows follow 4-6 year cycle. Now due to shale gas it may further changes to extended period.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

The MoD is in a quandary about Avro748s, there are several reasons; some or most of which were proposed by you, i have expanded on that

I have factored the reasons and solution hope this worth a read

1. Avro 748s (over 60 are in service) have been in service with IAF for close to 50 yrs & are nearing end of life and need to be replaced

2. MoD in a bold move decided to award the contract to private companies but only the Tata consortium showed guts to respond. As such the tender will be cancelled and fresh one will be issued.

3. Problem started when it was decided to make 56 planes from scratch, a complete no-no since it will require setting up a green field project, it not possible for any company to set up a large greenfield project for just 56 planes.

4. As far as a greenfield project that makes a minimum of 70-80 aircrafts and services upto 400 planes over its lifetime can a aircraft manufacturing unit be considered economical and profitable.

5. Even if 56 planes are assembled in CKD/SKD condition with minor parts sourced from India, still making 56 planes is uneconomical proposal, unless a full fledged aircraft MRO facility is attached.

6. We must keep in mind that 100 An32 being upgraded will remain in service till 2030 only.

7. As C17 entered service the IL76/IL78 were relegated to medium tactical transport and will have to be replaced.


joydeep ghosh said...

So what needs to be done:-

1. MoD should invite Lockeed Martin to set up a MRO and then a greenfield project in partnership with a private player. The MRO facility can become that largest in eastern hemsphere to service C130Js across Asia, Africa, Oceania

2. As India didn’t sign CISMOA and other deals with US that lead to some equipment not being installed on 12 C130J-30SH; we can surely repeat the alternative arrangement with C130Js as were made with C130J-30SH.

3. So how many C130Js can be made in this facility apart from doing MRO , the answer is 125, reason:-

a. 56 for IAF to replace Avro 748

b. 28 for IA that will form base for future fixed air wing of IA

c. 14 for IN that will form base for future fixed air wing of IN

d. 7 for use of NSG to allow them not to depend on others to move around during standoffs

e. 7 for use of NDRF as that will allow them to reach places quickly during natural emergencies

f.7 for use of ICGS/BSF/ITBP as they too need a dedicated transport to move around

g. 4 for RAW/IB/NIA to allow them to conduct operations wherever they want

MRO Facility & Jobs for 50 Years

With C130J MRO facilities being set up in India for C130J-SH and C130J operating across Asia, Africa, Oceania it will be a really good business prospect. This will result in creation of thousands of jobs in India for the next 50 years. C130J which has already been in service for over 50 years is so robust that it can wither the test of time and be in service for atleast another 50 years.

With 125 C130J Do We Need Indo Russian MTA

Yes, we need it too. Along with 56 Avro HS748, 100 An32, and 24 IL76 & IL78; the total aircrafts that need replacement is 180. So even after 125 C130J are churned out as & when, there still will be requirement for 60 more similar aircrafts, which can be easily fulfilled by the Indo Russian MTA in variety of roles including mid air refuellers.

Indo Russian MTA as Passenger Jet What Happens to RTA-70 (Indian Regional Jet)

The Indo Russian MTA an HAL/IL initiative apart from meeting the requirement of 60 transport aircrafts in India, can easily morph into a passenger jet. The Indo Russian MTA as a passenger jet design, if adopted can and will stop HAL / NAL from duplicating their efforts (RTA70), instead effort can be put towards developing more indigenous products and cutting down imports.

If only the ideas put forth ring a bell with IAF, MoD and the planners, it will certainly result in India becoming more self reliant in aircraft design and development.

Oh just learnt that either Lockheed/Boeing/Airbus are to setup a MRO in Gujarat, with a deal as early as next month. Hopefully its Lockheed for C130Js


Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...


Pls. provide your expert comments on this article:


Anonymous said...

more than modi, pakis from all walks of life seem to be pissed off when they heard ajit doval..

Anonymous said...

Modi & Ajit only piss off the india leaning paks. For right wingers they are a dream.

Anonymous said...

@anon 3:15 AM

typical paki way

Anonymous said...

US is very serious in Make In India initiative and allowed India to make Raven Drone.

Raven Drone:
1. India's Saviour
2. Symbol of US India Friendship
3. Shows US's seriousness in Make In India
4. US is serious in supporting India

US offered cutting edge drone to India with a manufacturing licence to India for which Modi is seriously considering 100 % FDI in defence.

And as a bonus India may consider to replace A.Chakra with Raven

Long Live US - India friendship.


rad said...

HI Prasun
I wonder why the raven uav is being considered for production when we have a the same specs uav made by nal and ade?
More over the raven has been exported left and right and its specs and freq are known.Pakistan has it as well.
The Israelis have an equal or better verison, why the fuss with hesitant usa?.I wonder why the global hawk maritime version mq-4 comes under the missile control regime when it is not armed?.Why is usa hesitant to give it to us or trying to play hard ball to make us sign various control regimes?.
It seems that the LCA is being handed over to the Air force. Does it mean that the LCA has reached the required AOA, integrated the derby missile , fixed a new quartz radome,etc?
Why on earth is the LCA always looking dirty and unwashed is there any scientific reason?Or sheer plain chalta hai attitude?.

rad said...

HI Prasun
What is your take on the sudden sacking of the drdo chief?.After all he was one of the architects of the agni missiles ?There could have been a more respectable way?.Instances like this can also have a bad morale on other heads as well.
The weapon carrying wings of the LCH look thick and un aerodynamic.I see no other heli in its clas having thick wings.Of course the designers know better,please give your take.

rad said...

HI Prasun and all

Please watch this HD video of aerobatics, the difference is that the
the video shooting has also been done by an air borne camera in sync with ac

sujoymajumdar said...


According to TEHELKA, Modi has assured Kerry that India will send troops to fight ISIS. Is it true? If yes, does India stand to benefit?

Anonymous said...

that is TEHELKA

Bruh said...

Sir, if the V5s are only being used for short 15 min shuttle trips this is clearly not a long term and sustainable situation. How long before we here a resolution to the AW talks? The need is urgent, bordering on an emergency and what is the GoI/MoD/IAF doing? Seems like not a lot.

I'm appalled at the fact that the Indian media gave this story massive airtime and pretty much got the deal scrapped in the first time creating this entire mess but have since completly failed to do any follow up and asses the mess they have left in their wake. What do they think the PM is now flying in?

This entire situation makes me very frustrated and I'm concerned for the safety of the VVIPs.

2) what deals will be signed when obama is in town? Ch-47 and AH-64? MQ-4C? m777?

Anonymous said...

2) what deals will be signed when obama is in town? Ch-47 and AH-64? MQ-4C? m777?

many countries operate these systems and obama need not present if india want these..

it's just a bollywood show.

Jay Bhanushali said...

I just fail to understand the logic behind buying 22 AH-64 helicopter gunships.
hal lch will be ready in 2-3 years and will be procured in bulk.if getting a more sophisticated and heavy attack helicopter is so essential then why just 22 ? either way it is difficult to make sense of this decision. what are your views on this?

Sakshi said...

why we make so much noise to introduce a platform?
Doing things are always chaotic in India.
MMRCA selection process and then Rafale talks show how much noise we make.

Prasun according to you, is this situation arises due to?

1. the education we imparting to ourselves and our kids are sub standard and nipping the thought process?

2. our elite lacks strategic thinking? or even rational thinking leave alone the BIG term strategy?

3. we in the name of democracy and media freedom spoiling the society where every one is a guru/master?

4. like pakis suffering due to alla, army and america, is India suffering with CRICKET, BOLLYWOOD, MEDIA and PSEUDO SECULARISM?

this MMRCA and Rafale is really stinking over decades as it gets dragged and spilled incompetence all over the place..

Pawan said...

Afghanistan warn Pakistan to let its trucks go directly to wagah border or afghainstan will stop Pak trucks to enter Afghanistan

Jay Bhanushali said...

interesting article,

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

At longlast, Su-35s are China-bound!

Jay Bhanushali said...

the Chinese are making a fool out of themselves by first doing fake propaganda of being capable of making multiple 5th gen fighters on the one hand and then importing 4.5 generation fighters on the other.what a stupid nation.

this might be a reaction to the recent decision of Abe to appoint a very aggressive defense minister and increase in Japans defence budget and Japanese order for the f-35.
in their heart the Chinese are really scared of the japs no matter what they say in public

Gessler said...

VMT for the previous answers, sir ji!

Your views on this?

Rituraj said...


1. Does India have any counter-stealth radar of any variety? Whether P-18, Vera - E, 55Zh6ME or anyone is available with any Indian armed service?

2. How many aircraft are kept in War Wastage Reserve per squadron? Is there a fix number or any rule on this?


prateek said...

sir ,
totally out of the mind & unrelated to the post , but i have an imp. ques.

1) do you think this party AAP has any chance in delhi elections ?
that moron sure is gathering a lot of crowd.
I am just worried our country & delhi state in particular would go to a lot more dirty set of dogs if this party wins majority.
all the media seems in its favour.

moreover to pass crucial bills namo needs support & more no.s in RS.

& also bjp's chances in bengal.

PS- even if you delete this comment please reply.

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

1. read a article in which it is being said that as IAF is doing well with Akash and its upgraded vriants so MRSAM being developed by israel is being reevaluated, eventhough LRSAM for navy is going forward, how true is that

2. you have said IA is looking for multi calibre individual weapon system, but just found that the m4/m26 combo is the best suited for CQB as well as chases, why is ARDE breaking its head on reinventing the wheel; your views

3. its being said lca sp1/2 wont make it to sqaudron, lca sp3 will start from squadron, how tru is that


Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...

last paragraph - "According to reports in October 2014, Almaz design bureau and Rosoboronexport are also understood to be discussing with the Indian Navy the possible sale of a rescue ship like Igor Belousov"

AniOne said...


Seems like F-22 Raptors will make Indian debut on republic day's eve.

If you look at the 3rd point, 4th line, Home Ministry's official just confirmed that F-35 Raptors will be in the air. Obviously, F-22 raptor is the only operational fifth generational jet fighter. So the number f-35 designation is wrongly quoted.

What is your analysis about F-22 raptors being in Indian Airspace?

VMT in advance

rad said...

@jay banushalli

No ,the chinese are not fools , they are mainly importing the su-35 to copy the tech.The later versions of the R-74 missiles will also be given to them to copy the tech. We have to commend the chinese for reverse engineering and stealing as that also takes brains.
More over their stealth ac are not fully tested and they need the su-35s multi targeting capability to thwart any american moves.

rad said...

HI Prasun
Please tell us more about the sosna air defense system that seems to have be ordered by the army.
where does it fit in the whole air defense system?.Is it to be used along with mobile columns?

Jay Bhanushali said...

thats exactly my you said yourself they need to copy the tech of a 4.5 gen fighter inspite of having a 5th gen fighter in advanced developemental stage. that clearly illustrates how 5th gen their 5th gen fighter really is.
no wonder they are so secretive about their so called 5th gen project just to prevent being embarassed in front of the world community

Rajesh said...


What is the difference between a 30mm autocannon like Shipunov 2A42/CRN-91 and a CIWS like AK-630, apart from number of barrels? Do they use same ammunition? Then why is the recoil and sound of fire so much different? Please explain.

sathead3 said...

"...we need to commend the Chinese for their stealing.." Really?

Sandstone said...

Sir when will work on the P-17As start? Is the talk that the IN is looking at more Talwars an attempt to kill off the P-17A?

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

Waiting for your analysis of DTTI and currently reported technologies i.e. Raven and Intelligence module for C-130J.


Sanchun Yaton said...

Hi Prasun,
Why, all of a sudden, do M&M/Tata/Reliance have an interest in Pipavav D&OE? The share price was lower a few weeks ago, though... Could it be due to any lobbying from Pipavav lenders? Or were the Gandhi Bros opposed before today to any takeover from Indian players?

Samuel Diaw said...

Y MoD not placing order for Honeywell engines for Jags yet?! Bloody netas and their dumb-ass jack-ass policies I say. Need to kick 'em in the bum and lace the order soon folks!!