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Monday, October 8, 2018

PAF Goes For CH-4A Wing Loong-2 Armed UAS, While The IAF Goes For Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf ADMS

China’s AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Group (CAC) will next month ink a contract to supply the Pakistan Air Force with 48 CH-4A Wing Loong-2 armed UAS in knocked-down condition.
These will in turn be licence-assembled by Pakistan’s state-owned, Kamra-based Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC).
The CH-4A, developed by the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics (CAAA, also known as the 11th Academy) and built by CAC, had made its maiden flight on February 27 this year. The CH-4A carries 12 air-to-surface weapons on six hardpoints. These include the 50kg BA-7 guided-missile and LS-6 precision-guided glide-bomb.
The CH-4A is powered by a Rotax 914 piston engine imported from Austria-based company BRP Powertrain. More than 60% of all components for the Wing Loong family of UAS platforms come from private-sector companies of China. The CH-4A has a maximum takeoff weight of 4,200kg, nearly four times greater than the CH-4.
Of its six hardpoints, four of them can carry double payloads, giving the UAS a potential payload of ten air-to-surface precision-guided munitions. Maximum takeoff weight is 4,200kg, maximum external load-carrying capacity is 480kg, maximum cruise speed is 370kph, service ceiling is 9km, and endurance is 20 hours.
The CH-4A has to date been ordered only by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
The PAF has already set up the necessary ground infrastructure at the following five air bases in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan for housing the CH-4A UAS platforms.
On March 16 this year, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology signed an industrial partnership agreement with the state-owned China Aerospace Science & Technology Corp (CASC) to establish a manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia for as many as 300 CH-4 and CH-4A UAS platforms.
Following the signature of a contract on October 5 that is valued valued at US$5.43 billion, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is all set to receive its initial five squadrons of the Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf ADMS, with deliveries commencing in late 2020.
Plans call for eventually expanding this LR-SAM network into five Brigades in the following decade, and deploying them for the air-defence (against hostile manned combat aircraft, SRBMs, TBMs and LACMs) of major cities and industrial corridors located in western and central India.
The sector-wise command-and-control posts of each of these Brigades will be integrated with the IAF’s already-operational five nodes of the Integrated Air Command, Control & Communications System (IACCCS) at Barnala (Punjab), Wadsar (Gujarat), Aya Nagar (Delhi), Jodhpur (Rajasthan) and Ambala (Haryana).
Initially, the S-400 ADMS will come equipped with only the 380km-range 40N6E LR-SAMs, which were declared by Russia as being ready for series-production following a series of user-assisted successful test-firings last August.
In the following decade, the 40N6E LR-SAMs will be joined by the 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI LR-SAMs, having top speeds of 7km/second and also being the first LR-SAMs of Russian origin to possess INERT warheads, i.e. warheads that do not contain any explosives and instead, are ‘hittile’, meaning they will destroy inbound IRBMs or MRBMs by sheer force of impact. Both these missiles are still undergoing development.
The most revolutionary element of the 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI hypersonic LR-SAMs will be their on-board nose-mounted, Ka band millimeter-wave active phased-array radar seekers and their real-time discrimination algorithms required for fire-control and guidance of hit-to-kill interceptors. To this end, the radar seekers have been designed with a rigid mount and narrow beam to provide precise angle metric accuracy. The combination of metric accuracy, wide bandwidth, and high Doppler-resolution capabilities makes them excellent sensors for real-time discrimination, for they can provide extremely accurate identification-processing estimates of motion differences caused by mass imbalances on real and threat-like targets.
The 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI LR-SAMs will be new-generation replacements for the 1980s-era 9M82 and 9M83 LR-SAMs that had equipped the Almaz-Antey S-300VM and Antey-2500 strategic air-defence systems.
Since the IAF’s S-400 LR-SAMs will be high-value assets, they will require in-depth air-defence protection as well. For this, the IAF had ordered four squadrons of the RAFAEL-built SpyDer system back in 2013, but an amended contract had to be inked on August 3, 2015 following which deliveries commenced in February 2017 and were completed by August 2018.
Also to be enlisted are the services of close-in weapon system (CIWS), for which the IAF wants to procure 244 cannons along with 228 search/fire-control radars, and 204,000 programmable bullets.

97 comments:

Ashish Gautam said...

Hmmm nice one. I don't know how you bring out so detailed info. 😂😂. It's good.
1) 7km/sec Vali missile ki accuracy kitni rhegi how will they maintain it??
2) vo last thread mei u told k there will be more updates regarding various missiles etc. They aren't coming???

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VARUN: Here are the clarifications:

Claim: However, the uncertainty that dogged the inking of the contract till the last moment–it was not clear until this morning if this would happen–was suggestive of the looming shadow of the United States on India’s foreign policy. The GoI continued to send mixed signals to its Russian counterparts, so much so, that till this morning nobody knew for sure if the deal would be done.
Reality: LoLz! So far, only 2 ‘desi’ patrakaars have claimed this to be the case & that too without providing any form of supporting or corroborative evidence. In reality, Cabinet Committee on National Security had approved contract signature on September 26 & the US was informed about it, so that the US State Dept could have adequate time for the drafting of a statement that avoided tarnishing India in any manner. And that’s exactly what has since happened.

Claim: Interestingly, 70% of purchased missiles are of very long range (400km) and long range (350km) category and the rest have lower ranges of 300km and 250km. The S-400 surveillance radar with the range of 600km and 360 degree coverage can track 70 targets.
Reality: Folks are getting confused between lateral range & service ceiling of the SAMs. Only 3 types of LR-SAMs are being acquired, the 380km-range 40N6E LR-SAMs for starters & later the 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI LR-SAMs. Laws of physics & the related natural curvature of Earth dictate that no surface-based radar can accurately track airborne targets cruising at medium-altitudes (between 15,000 & 30,000 feet ASL) at long beyond-the-horizon ranges, leave alone provide fire-control cues/updates. Only long-range detection is possible & that too with up to 80 metres of error in both azimuth & elevation. And surveillance radars cannot be equated with tracking/target engagement radars. The two have totally different volumetric envelopes for airspace surveillance.

Claim: Russia has agreed to help integrate the S-400 with India’s indigenous Akash-1 (which was made with Russian hand-holding and is still not more than 40% accurate); expedite procurement despite having a full order book till 2022; and consider the transformational S-500 system (with capability to kill low-earth satellites) currently under trial, for sale to India.
Reality: SAM systems NEVER require integration with one another. They ALWAYS operate in standalone mode. What requires integration is the IFF transponders of the various radars with the IACCCS network so that a common air situation picture can be obtained. SAM homing accuracy differs from target to target. Against medium-altitude airborne targets, a single Akash-1 has demonstrated 85% accuracy. Akash-1, like Barak-8 LR-SAM & S-125 Pechora, is NOT meant to engage low-flying MRCAs (which will be sorted out by SHORADS), but rather to engage medium bombers like JH-7As & H-6Ks that do not have ultra-low-level terrain avoidance capability

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Claim: Interestingly, the IAF intends to use S-400 in the ‘offensive air defence’ role rather than its designed role of protecting high-value targets like Delhi, for which it was originally proposed. Through ‘offensive air defence’, the IAF wants S-400 to take out enemy AWACS—an airborne radar meant to control the battlespace by helping direct fighter aircraft to their targets. The AWACS—a major force-multiplier—would be extremely threatened within S-400’s 400km range.
Reality: Again, a total violation of the laws of physics & therefore a physical impossibility. For instance, in the western sector the PAF’s Saab 2000 & Karakoram Eagle AEW & CS platforms will be operating from air bases deep inside KP & Balochistan, almost 300km away from the IB. Being turboprop aircraft, they will cruise at altitudes not exceeding 25,000 feet (unlike the 40,000 feet cruising altitudes of E-3A/D AWACS & A-50I PHALCONs) & consequently, at best their radars will be able to scan only 100km of Infian airspace in depth. Likewise, the IAF’s S-400s will be located at least 150km inside Indian territory. So, by doing the math & factoring in the Earth’s curvature, it becomes impossible for any land-based LR-SAM’s target engagement radar or SAM round to target any AEW & CS platform located 450km away in the west! In the northern sector facing TAR or even northwestern Myanmar, the hilly topography presents both terrain clutter & terrain-masking challenges unless the target engagement radar is sitting atop Nanda Devi or Mt Everest!

Claim: So, when the chief of air staff, Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa said that he would use 36 Rafale and S-400 to ‘plug the gaps’, he was referring to this role for S-400 to make up for his fighter aircraft deficiencies.
Reality: That’s true, especially since the IAF will be reqd to field no less than 14 Sqns of MRCAs for flying defensive counter-air CAPs thrice daily on the western front during hostilities, plus another 8 Sqns on similar roles along the LAC. But with the availability of a networked grid of LR-SAMs, MR-SAMs & SHORADS, areas housing vital infrastructure like POL/LNG storage areas, refineries, power-generation stations & frontline air bases located closer to the IB/LoC/LAC can be accorded hardened, in-depth air-defence coverage.

Claim: For the protection of high-value targets, the Air Headquarters has made a strong case to purchase the United States’ National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System (NASAMS).
Reality: This is 100% FAKE NEWS. Nothing of this sort has happened nor has the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency notified the US Congress about any such impending sale.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Claim: The thinking at the Air HQ is that since there is no understanding on use of ballistic missiles–especially with Pakistan–both sides are likely to avoid use of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads lest they are misread and leads to nuclear accident.
Reality: Total hogwash, boulderdash & baloney. Since the PAF does not possess twin-engined or even single-engined deep-strike interdictors capable of flying terrain-hugging sorties, the PA has taken over the role of deep-strike through surface-launched TBMs, SRBMs & LACMs, with the principal targets being POL/LNG storage areas, refineries, power-generation stations & frontline air bases located closer to the IB/LoC—exactly like what Iran & Iraq had done in the 1980s—in order to decapitate each other’s economy & psychologically demoralise the civilian populace by destroying those industrial installations that help sustain daily civilian life. Even targets like Parliament plus North & South Block are included in the tergets’ list of the PA & that’s why the S-400s are reqd for area air-defence. Conventional warhead attacks can never be mis-read by any sane individual as nuclear warhead detonations since the former never produce anything even remotely resembling a mushroom cloud!

Claim: There is a strong lobby in Russia which wants to have deeper defence relations with Pakistan. Since the June 2015 visit of Pakistan army chief, General Raheel Sharif to Moscow and the sale of four Mi-35 helicopters (for counter-terror operations), Pakistani delegations regularly visit Russia. At the recent Army-2018 defence exhibition held in Russia in September this year, I saw many Pakistani officers hobnobbing with Russian defence companies. They were interested in everything, from fighter aircraft, air defence systems to even joint defence ventures with Russian companies.
Reality: This is a misplaced perception, since the Kremlin also is of the view that it will never forgive Pakistan for the latter’s role during the 1980s Afghan civil war. Hobnobbing with weapons marketeers & showing interest in Russia-made military hardware does not automatically translate into firm procurement contracts being inked. I myself have seen several Pakistani military & military-industrial officials doing the same type of socialising with Russian & Ukrainian & Belarussian OEMs at several military expos worldwide since the mid-1990s, but none of them have to date produced anything significant, with the sole exceptions being those that had been routed through China as sub-systems.

In conclusion, the IAF knows only too well exactly how easily the PA & PAF can be domesticated & brought to their knees. All that is reqd is to target the few sprawling Behria Townships in Punjab & Sindh that today constitute the most prized possessions of the PA & PN & PAF. Don’t believe me? Then do watch this for corroboration:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW03JOFBUEE

As the saying goes, Agar Behria Town ko ghiraa dia, toh phir poora Pakistan doob jayega!!!

So no need to complicate matters at all, everything has a sane & practical explanation PROVIDED the laws of physics & mathematics are always respected & are not distorted by Sony Playstation or X-Box-inspired whims n fancies!!!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: 1) Didn’t I state above that such LR-SAMs will be ‘hittiles’ i.e. they will physically strike the target & break them apart? That means pinpoint accuracy where there’s no reqmt for any proximity fuze. 2) The updates will come in a separate standalone thread. And pay close attention to ther conical aerodynamic profile of the LR-SAMs meant to destroy SRBMs, TBMs, IRBMs & MRBMs. Do the AAD & the PDV have such airframe designs? If not, then why? Are the Russians wrongly designing their LR-SAM airframes, or is the DRDO heading in the wrong direction with its conventional airframe designs for the AAD & PDV? Think about it.

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: https://voiceofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2018/10/entire-gcc-is-crumbling-like-pack-of.html?m=1#.W7gOxHkrnt0.linkedin

Anonymous said...

Many thanks once again in providing a common-sense viewpoint to developments in Indian defence apart from other matters. I read your blog to get a correct picture.

However, I don't post much comments, as I am still learning!

Regards,

Anand

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
This one is a tough one going through all that specifications and data. But worth-while.

But after going through this, then landing up in this article in The Print:
https://theprint.in/security/busting-some-fantastic-claims-about-s-400-indias-latest-military-acquisition/130479/

... I find that Col. Vinayak Bhat (retd), while trying to bust some myths of S-400 has himself got tied in knots and put some wrong assessments.

Are you of the same opinion?

Kane

Prranshu Yadav said...

I have some doubt regarding the following part you wrote:

"In the following decade, the 40N6E LR-SAMs will be joined by the 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI LR-SAMs, having top speeds of 7km/second"

Are you sure the missile's top speed is 7 km/second? Because that's mach 20, the speed that ICBMs reach in their terminal phase! At those speeds the ICBM's re-entry vehicle is engulfed in a plasma sheath due to extreme friction with air making it look literally like an astroid crashing on earth. One would assume that this plasma sheath would severly interfere with the radar waves of the LR-SAM's seeker, making it unusable. I remember reading that America's sprint ballistic defence missile travelled at mach 14 and even at that speed the plasma sheath that formed made ground based radio guidence very difficult.

Ashish Gautam said...

Hmm got it....

Enigma said...

Sir,isn't this very worrying?DRDO employee held for leaking BrahMos secrets to Pakistan. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/drdo-spy-brahmos-secrets-pakistan-1358436-2018-10-08

Harsh said...

Sir, you mean only & only 40n6e missiles are being ordered as of now. && no 48n6e??

If so in what quantity 4on6e is being ordered??

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KANE: Anyone with even minimal knowledge about the citing of airspace surveillance or target illumination/engagement radars for LR-SAMs & MR-SAMs in India since the late 1960s will acknowledge that such radars are always located in hillocks, i.e. higher-altitude terrain. And there are several in Rajasthan, Haryana & Maharashtra. One such site is at Alwar.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: The Russians had overcome such technological barriers back in the 1980s itself when developing the S-300VM LR-SAM & also the A-135 BMD network.

Enigma said...

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1049300903273156613 Govt has formed Strategy Planning Group (SPG) headed by NSA Doval to assist National Security Council of India to undertake long term strategic defence review.Sir,if I remember correctly,you've been asking for thos for quite some time.You must be happy.

Prranshu Yadav said...

But if this problem has been overcome, then why are ICBM RVs not being fitted with terminal radar seekers that would considerably reduce their CEP? Anyways, googling info on the 77N6-N missile I found the following page:

http://www.deagel.com/Defensive-Weapons/77N6-N_a003608001.aspx

I might be wrong, but notice that in the specifications on Speed, it mentions "Target's Max Speed: 7,000 mps (25,207 kph)". So maybe what they meant is that the LR-SAM can hit targets travelling at 7 km/sec, not that the LR-SAM's own speed is 7 km/sec.

BTW, recently I came across this paper where chinese scientists have proposed a method to communicate with space craft even when they are engulfed in plasma during re-entry. They say it will also have applications for ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Do you think its technically possible? And should India also persue it?

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2015/06/18/scientists-propose-method-communicating-spacecraft-during-reentry/

just_curious said...

Prasun, what is ur take on this ..

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2018/10/pakistani-poker-playing-saudi-arabia.html

Pratap said...

Prasun bhai, what will be Trump's next move? For us time is ripe, loha garam hai hathora maar do https://www.dawn.com/news/1437653

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ENIGMA: One can only be happy AFTER assessing the end-product/results, & not before that.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: There are 2 types of re-entry warheads, MRVs & MIRVs. The latter have had target co-relation seekers seekers for the past 22 years. And how will a LR-SAM travelling at lesser speeds catch up with targets travelling at Mach 7? Can you explain how such a feat can be attained when the LR-SAM is expected to physically hit the target & break it up due to the sheer impact of the collision?

To JUST CURIOUS: Here’s the original link:

https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.com/2018/10/pakistani-poker-playing-saudi-arabia.html

China has already objected to KSA being brough in as the so-called 3rd strategic partner for CPEC because China views Iran, and not the KSA, as its long-term strategic partner & will therefore not do anything that angers Iran. Saudi Arabia on the other hand wants to explore ways of keeping southeastern Iran destabilised through Balochistan. So, no matter what sweet-talking emanates from Pakistan WRT co-existing peacefully with Iran, in reality Pakistan will be forced to side with the Sunni Arabas, period.And this in turn will cause enormous unrest within Gilgit-Baltistan. In fact, the unrests began in the late 1980s & are now growing in intensity.

Satya said...

Time has come for Trump and Gen Rawat to convert their warnings into action https://www.dawn.com/news/1437653

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Hmmm, aap toh ‘got it’, lekin is bandalbaaz ko abhi taki ‘did not get it’. Watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kra0hc72MuE

To RAD: IAF’s ‘innovations’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOcFWaRRigs

IA’s ZSU-23-4 Schilka in Operation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycbi7dQJlrY

To PRATAP & SATYA: LoLz! Lohaa aur bhi garam hoga after what I’ve posted as the lead information at the top-end of this thread, plus these:

Ghauri IRBM Fired by Pakistan on IAF Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_fksZHGFWA

PAF's CH-4A Wing Loong-2 UAS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omU_olbV3gc

Buddha said...

These Drone will be used against their own citizen in Fata Sindh and Balochistan ...
In their utter financial crisis how they gonna pay for such drone and weapons ...
For destroying terror launch pad and to hunt and kill terrorist India somewhere needs dedicated armed drone with stealth capacity....Development of which is still decades away ...
What I feel seeing situations and definitive purchase
Capturing of POK is not going to take place before 2024...

Ashish Gautam said...

Arey yr is hutiye ka koi ilaj nai hai. Isse accha koi ex Fauji he bitha lo.
Except bkchodi isko kuch nai ata.
Sir jaise Pakistan is going for this Chinese jugad, what's going on our side except heron n that Rustam which is still trying to take off.
Following news is real or FAKE???
If real then what are things gonna be like?? A unified drone corps which has representatives n work force from army, airforce, Navy, coast guard, paramilitary, CAPFs????

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

If LOHA GARAM HAI, then let us use all the weapons soon to become obsolete in our ORBAT (Mig21/27, Pechora/OSA/Strela SAMs, INSAS, Bofors, 130mm, 105mm, Grad/Pinaka MK1,Prithvi BSMs, Arjun Mk1/T-72, BMP-2, Cheetah/Chetak/Dhruvetc. and take back PoK ASAP. It will be a good ROI as our services have trained hard on them and just junking them would be a waste. Let's use them before they are lost to obsolescence.
The new equipment, Rafales, S-400, MRSAM, QRSAM, Dhanush, ATAGS, Pinaka Mk2, Pralay, new assault rifles, ArjunMk2/T-90s Apache/LCH etc. would be a good deterrent to Porki revenge attack or to preempt any Chi-Pak 2 front misadventures.

In fact, the IAF and the IA both acquiring LCH is a good fortituous requirement as both shall require their use in air to air attack with ATAMs to hunt down the WingLoong2 CH4A UAS on both fronts besides ATGMs and rockets for anti armour and CAS ground attack roles.

Thus let the Games and fun begin

Prranshu Yadav said...

I was assuming that since a ballistic missile follows a perfectly predictable ballistic trajectory, even a slower LR-SAM could be launched at such a place and time that it arrives at a point on that trajectory at the same instant that the BM arrives. An ICBM might be much faster but it has to cover intercontinental distances which takes time. While the slower LR-SAM has to cover just a few hundred km. So if the ICBM launch is detected early enough the LR-SAM should get enough time to reach the point...

Ashish Gautam said...

Arey sir vo news vala link ye hai.
https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/m.timesofindia.com/india/india-mulls-unified-drone-force-not-silos-in-each-wing/amp_articleshow/66105026.cms

Sujit said...

Prasun sir, is this the final design or wind tunnel model of tejas mk2??
https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7636&sid=cbbf829cf0ec6e31670ee045a6afb4c3&start=680

Prranshu Yadav said...

Lo ji ek aur bhaisahab honey trap hogaye.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/nishant-agrawal-brahmos-missile-research-centre-bmrc-scientist-arrested-on-charges-of-spying-for-pak-1928780

rad said...

hi prasun
how bad is the brahmos leaks?

Kchontha said...

Sir your write up, explanation and reply to all the queries are illuminating. One question, is fab defence modifying ak rifles of Indian security and police forces? Or Is it rumour?

Kapil said...

Prasun sir, pls comment on arrest of a DRDO employee for passing sensitive info of Brahmos to Pakistan. Reports say that Pakistan has got its hands on the missile's seeker technology. How dangerous is this for us?

AMIT BISWAS said...

What to say about this bandalbaaz reports

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2018/10/s-400-deal-announced-quietly-after.html?m=1


Sometimes I wonder how did he even joined army

AMIT BISWAS said...

What s next for LPD tender??? Any follow on order for m777 howitzer and Chinook in future????

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To UNKNOWN: Saudi Arabia is financing this deal for CH-4A UAS.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Unified Drone Corps is a non-starter & no-brainer.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Endo- & exo-atmospheric interceptors of the type being acquired by the IAF do not have to contend with long-range ICBMs. Instead, the threats come from SRBMs, TBMs & IRBMs for which only 5 minutes will be available for the interception process to take place.

To SUJIT: LoLz! Rest assured that LCA-AF MK.2 won’t feature any canards.

To PRRANSHU YADAV, RAD & KAPIL: There’s no need to jump to any conclusions. A person may well be chatting with Pakistanis on Facebook, but that does not automatically translate into classified data being transmitted via electronic means. A PC from which such on-line chatting is conducted can also store sensitive data but it will have to be proven that such data was either sent voluntarily or was sourced involuntarily. So, it is still very early days as yet as far as investigations go & hence one should not be quick to pronounce anyone guilty.

To VARUN: Financial bailouts don’t take place unless & until the recipient country is determined to take the necessary corrective steps. This is the 14th time Pakistan has gobe to the IMF for financial rescue, not the first. Hence, rest assured that Pakistan has already lost the race to become an economic/industrial player of any stature & is now condemned to become a captive market for China. But the US & Russia are now determined more than ever to extract the ultimate price from Pakistan, which will become evident in the weeks to come.

To AMIT BISWAS: That’s exactly how buffoons play their acts, nothing surprising at all. Nor is he the only one. LPD’s RFP issuance has been postponed indefinitely. Only an IDIOT will release RFPs that ask for the 1st LPD to be built abroad, 2 to be built by a provate-sector shipyard & a single LPD by a DPSU shipyard. No follow-on orders for M-777 or Chinook are expected as of now. Meanwhile, have uploaded several new slides WRT the PAF’s CH-4A UAS procurement.

Buddha said...

Sir read your article in force magazine this month oct edition .
Nice detail perspective discussion.
Here you mention around 2000 nirbhoi cruise missle will be inducted ..
Are all these same 1200km class or 700km class
U said 268 su30MKI will be subjected to Super sukhoi ....As mentioned you earlier.. chances of direct purchase of around 80 super su30Mki is gone or not thought of as of now..
Sir can Bramhos airlauch version will get maritime antiship role apart from what u mentioned in the article .
Sir you have not said anything about 2nd tranche of rafale or MMRCA2.0 of 118 in your Future Accretions part ..Is this because time is not mature or ambiguous nature of defence purchase policy.
Thanks and regards ..
Buddha

Prranshu Yadav said...

Sir, CMANO (Command: Modern Air and Naval Operations) is a highly realistic military combat simulation software that's commercially available. Recently I came across two articles in which users simulated a Chinese attack on north east India. In both scenarios the Chinese seem to have achieved their objectives (in one scenario the onjective was to close Indian air bases in the north east an in the other it was also to occupy Arunachal Pradesh). In one scenario the Indian S-400 intercepted Chinese ballistic missiles, but in the second attempt by the user, the Chinese successfully overwhelmed the S-400 with a large barrage of ballistic and cruise missiles, and then proceeded to attack Indian air bases with similar missile barrages, forcing their closure. In the other scenario the Chinese similarly attacked Indian bases with missile barrages but most of the Indian fighter planes took off before the base was hit. Indian Su-30MKIs then shot down several J-10s but were eventually shot down themselves. Meanwhile Indian side attacked Chinese air bases with brahmos. Some of the brahmos missiles were intercepted but others destroyed aircraft and other facilities at the bases. Can you please go through the two articles and let me know your openion? Below are their links. One of the articles is in Chinese but google will translate all of it.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4327421&mpage=1&#4340949

https://mil.sina.cn/sd/2017-08-14/detail-ifyixias0497617.d.html?from=wap


Arpit Kanodia said...

https://twitter.com/allyjung/status/1049908421561118721

Sir,
Your opinion on this, Bahubali become a hit in DPRK.

Ved said...

Hi Prasun,
These CH-4A will be good target practice for our air defence SAMs. May be will be taken down by AAMs as well.

Need to know more on these:

1. Is ATAGS in production mode. Who is manufacturing them?
2. What's the status of integration of AAMs on Tejas? Which missiles will it be armed with?
3. Where are these S400 five regiment intended to be deployed? All in western border or scattered in West and north border?

Buddha said...

Why does Soudi Arabia need so much armed and unarmed drone fleet where their armed force is incapable of performing task even with decorated high value high tech weaponary....Only to bomb innocent civilians of yamen .
Without integrated air cover in future pakistan may use this platform to create havoc on advancing armoured column of India

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Seems like Prashant Bhushan & co., Along with Congress & it's support infrastructure, including NDTV, have started a rear guard assault on Modi & Rafale deal. They are confident that the newly constituted bench will be anti BJP for various reasons and have started renewed efforts to make it BJP's bofors.

Will they succeed,don't really know, but Pakistan & China defence officials must be cheering for pappu & team

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

What do you make about the latest revelation that Dassault considered the partnership with Reliance ``mandatory for obtaining the market" ? Hope this does not scuttle the rafale deal and give Pappu a shot at power. It appears that international forces are working to install pappy, possibly for thinds like nuclear disarmament and other forms of subversion.

Satyaki

AMIT BISWAS said...

" Also to be enlisted are the services of close-in weapon system (CIWS), for which the IAF wants to procure 244 cannons along with 228 search/fire-control radars, and 204,000 programmable bullets. "

kindly explain the programmable bullets....

will IAF get both mandatory as well as optional radars for s400 or only mandatory radars??will IAF also get pantsyr SAM/ other short range Russian SAM to protect S 400

Ashish Gautam said...

ok ok, thanks. sir for a 5th gen fighter like F35 is it possible to shoot it down using EMP or failing its on board electronics using powerful enough EMP strike??? if yes then at least how much amount of EMP will be required??
ajai shukla is ex army colonel?????? isne SSB qualify kaise kia???? sir ye ordinance ya supply vala to nai hai??? why dont he put his rank before his name????

TheHundred said...

http://bharatshakti.in/major-revamp-of-indias-national-security-architecture/

"Three Deputy National Security Advisers. A Military Adviser. Reconstituted Strategic Policy Group. A dedicated think tank to monitor and assess China across the spectrum. Formation of Defence Planning Committee (DPC). Additional budget for the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS). India’s national security architecture is being transformed to meet current and future challenges."

"Called the Centre for Contemporary China Studies (CCCS), the new entity will only study China from an Indian point of view. Manned by serving officers drawn from the MEA, the three armed forces, the Intelligence Bureau, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and other relevant ministries and departments, CCCS will prepare reports and undertake specific studies on China at the behest of different government departments to provide real-time policy inputs to the decision-makers dealing with China."

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Parranshu Yadav Indian planmaker and policymakers don't rely on free software.

Instead not only just IA, IAF and IN, but also SFC go in labs like Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for testing new doctrines and responses in simulations developed by them. Which also consider political matters ,strategic considerations like nukes, capability and capacity of forces like how much officers capable of an initiative at lower level. Everybody know without signing an order from Commissar, you can't even move in PLA.


So please consider there results and there considerations, there results are totally 180 degree different than what you stated above.

Arpit Kanodia said...

If Chinese want to believe that they can defeat India, then I think they implementing pycological warfare part of art of war on themselves, even without any kind of Indian initiative.

And this going to pay very dearly to them.

Already they undermining Indian threat because of political reason to show India as inferior to there citizens.

We are on stage, when the power difference between India and China is at maxima, and with each passing year it reducing and will reduce further. So this is the best moment for them to get maximum benefit out of border resolution in a negotiation. After 15 or 20 years, they miss the bus. They have time till somewhat 2022, even induction of 6 SSN and 4 SSBN with K4 change the whole power matrix and balance of power. So Chinese don't hold much time and and any aces of any kind.


So history is pretty harsh,it take it's revenge.

Arpit Kanodia said...

And seriously if we think , what Chinese achieve from Doklam? Nothing.

Are they seriously believing that If they think India as inferior, then India suddenly vanish from Planet earth?

All these big talks of 100 years plan,Zhou Enlai saying it is too early to tell about French Revolution.

Then what they achieved by all this, what is there endgoal?

India or US not going to vanish from Earth.


If even after from power of strength they unable to achieve a border agreement in favour of them.

Then these are just fancy talks without any ground realities.

In reality, Chinese are actually as much idiots and morons as we are or Americans are.

The politics of our two countries are so different that something make it easier and something difficult, while vice versa here in our country.


But they are nowhere smarter than us like people think because of there fancy talks. In some departments actually we are much more smarter than Chinese.

We know what we facing as Chinese threat, they hold not a single clue about Indian threat.

And Indian threat is huuuuuge, that would be moronic to ignore such a big threat. And highly laughable it is,they are actually ignoring Indian threat.

Prranshu Yadav said...

I hope you are right. Since India is a nuclear power any hostilities will be limited in both time and space. During this period to escape from Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles, Indian fighter jets will have to leave airbases quickly and operate in a dispersed manner using highways as runways. This is exactly why IAF practiced landing and taking off from highways during exercise gaganshakti. I think India should procure more brahmos and nirbhay missiles to match Chinese arsenal.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA/UNKNOWN: VMT. Of the 2,000 Nirbhays for the IAF, about 400 of them will be air-launched & they will have 700km range. The ground-launched Nirbhays of the IAF will have 1,200km-range. Direct purchase of 50 Super Su-30MKIs is still on the cards. The BrahMos-A air-launched version is exclusively for maritime strike. The BrahMos-NG in the following decade will be of the LACM-type. I didn’t say anything about additional Rafales or the 114 MMRCA Ver.2 because matters are still not clear from a financial standpoint. Same goes for Tejas Mk.1A & LCA-AF Mk.2.

To ARPIT KANODIA: North Korea always had a soft corner for India since the early 1950s & in fact India has quietly been providing agricultural assistance to that country since the 1980s. Amd that country returned the favour by sharing all available data on the Nodong-1/Ghauri IRBM with India since the late 1990s & it was based on this that in 1996 the DRDO began R & D work on the AAD/PAD/PDV projects.

To VED: Those CH-4As are all Saudi-funded & form part of the consignment of CH-4s & CH-4As being procured by Riyadh. In Pakistan, they will be used along the Durand Line as well as in Balochistan & also against Iranian installations in Sistan-Balochistan. Interestingly, China has also provided armed UAS platforms to Iran. 1) Yes, it is. 7 are being buolt by Kalyani Group about about 4 by TATA Power SED. 2) Only Derby BVRAAM has been integrated. SRAAM selection has yet to take place. 3) Only along the west & central India. Along the mountainous LAC, what’s reqd are SHORADS & MR-SAMs like Akash-1 & Barak-8.

To UNKNOWN: Only a very IDIOTIC PAF commander will think of using such UAS platforms against Indian armoured columns whose air-defence will be in-depth & layered, comprising MR-SAMs, SHORADS & VSHORADS.

To SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUKAM & SATYAKI: The Supreme Court has rightly rejected all allegations of financial impropriety & has instead focussed only on the decision-making process for the Rafale’s selection. Consequently, both the IAF & Reliance will present all the relevant data that the petitioners will find it IMPOSSIBLE to discredit or nullify. That’s as far as the matter will go, rest assured.

To AMIT BISWAS: The ammo is of the AHEAD-type, developed by Rheinmetall Air Defence (formerly Oerlikon Contraves of Switzerland). There are no optional radars for S-400 aince such radars are used only by Russia for its own version of IACCCS. Where’s the need to Pantsyr when the SpyDer-SR SHORADS is already available?

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Creating EMPs in mid-air is indeed possible but is next-to-impossible to create them at exactly the same moment & at the desired place where the F-35s or any iother combat aircraft happen to be. The ‘bandalbaaz’ is from the armoured corps.

To THE HUNDRED: It isn;lt exactly a revamp, but more of a consolidation of the various advisory bodies so that a unified set of options can be presented to the executive-levels Cabinet Committees. Previously, this wasnlt the case & consequently various contradictory advisories used to be issued, which prevented inter-ministerial coordination & it also made the PMO an under-performing institution.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Any simulation software is only as good as the variables that are inserted in it by human beings. And commercially available simulation software does not have the benefits of latest operational inputs. For example, will such software contain inputs about the calibre of professionalism of the PLA? Will there be inputs about the TRUE availability of in-theatre forces & resources? In reality, both China & India know very well that even a limited war in TAR or anywhere else along the LAC is unwinnable in a decisive manner due to various geographical limitations & most importabtly, such a limited war will severely curtail China’s efforts to rise peacefully as a global power of eminence. Instead, what is far more probable is a war involving shadow-boxing, & not kinetic operations. For instance, between Bangladesh & Myanmar, which will be China’s favourite? And how will China operate to secure its interests? Why did China, unlike India, not send any relief material or any other material assistance to Bangladesh for the lakhs of Rohingya refugees now rotting in & around Cox’s Bazaar in Chittagong? And on whom is China relying for facilitating a regime-change in Bangladesh through the forthcoming general elections there in December? First, we need to go through these:

https://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-hasina-assassination-plot-death-penalty-to-19-khaleda-zia-s-fugitive-son-given-life-sentence-2673883

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-OrfOxTQGY

Then we come to the Jamaat-e-Islami, which provides the foot-soldiers for the BNP party. The Awami Party on the other hand supports the Tabligh Jamaat. So, for regime-change, China needs to domesticate & buy over the Jamaat-e-Islami through the good offices of Pakistan:

https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2017/11/15/tabligh-jamaat-torn-apart-internal-dispute

https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/dhaka/2018/07/29/ahmad-shafi-says-kandhalvi-s-tabligh-doomed-like-jamaat-e-islami

https://www.thedailystar.net/backpage/hefajat-gets-involved-tabligh-jamaat-affairs-1612705

China’s gameplan is therefore to topple the Awami Party by promoting & funding the BNP/Jamaat-e-Islami combine, which in turn will be reqd to return the favour by not insisting on the Rohingyas returning to Myanmar’s Arakan region because that’s where China has made huge economic investments, as explained in great detail here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Bk5jppEN1o

This in turn will used for developing all the hinterland areas of southwest China south of the Yangtse River. Now, which simulation software can be used for enacting such real-life developments or India’s policy options? In real-life, such are the scenarios that require war-gaming simulations, & not the ones like CMANO.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRRANSHU YADAV: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for its southwest provinces of Sichuan and Yunnan is now transitioning from the Silk Road to the Silk Railroad, with the help of Myanmar. Last month, Myanmar—facing the heat from the West because of the Rohingya refugee crisis—inked an agreement with Beijing to establish a cross-border economic corridor that will enable both Sichuan and Yunnan to both import goods directly from the whole world as well as to export goods to South Asia via Myanmar. The 1,700km corridor will provide China yet another node to access the Indian Ocean Region. Already Gwadar port—one of the terminal points of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—has become Beijing’s so-called and much-hyped star gateway to the Arabian Sea. The China Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) will become a major factor in lifting the economies of landlocked southwest China, which include the provinces of Yunnan and Sichuan, by providing them a passage to the Indian Ocean Region. The CMEC will also reduce Beijing’s trade and energy reliance on the Malacca straits—the narrow passage that links the Indian Ocean with the Pacific. The CMEC will run from Yunnan Province of China to Mandalay in Central Myanmar. From there it will head towards Yangon, before terminating at the Kyaukpyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the Bay of Bengal. The corridor connects Yunnan and three important economic centres in Myanmar, and aims to promote the economic integration of the region. China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Beijing’s top planning body that signed a memorandum of understanding with Myanmar on September 9, 2018, stitched the CMEC with the BRI. The CMEC will focus on 12 areas, including basic infrastructure, construction, manufacturing, agriculture, transport, finance, human resource development and telecommunications. Joint Working Groups and committees will be formed to implement the projects. In August, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) opened a new centre in Yangon, which will help fund some of the CMEC driven projects. Three factors, including the ascending pressure on Naypyidaw from human rights groups and western governments, appear to have reinforced the China-Myanmar bond. Domestically, the Myanmarese economy is growing very slowly because of the lack of investment. Globally, there has been talk of sanctions against Myanmar over the Rohingya issue. So more than ever, the country needs China. India’s tepid enthusiasm for the previously proposed Bangladesh China India Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor also appears to have persuaded China to head for the CMEC. The CMEC was proposed during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Myanmar last November, because India has not been acting on the BCIM sub-regional cooperation proposal. So it is better for China to go for bilateral cooperation with Myanmar and simultaneously wait for India’s participation. In the future, the CMEC aims to be integrated with a much larger connectivity network, including the BCIM or the Kunming-to-Kolkata corridor, as well as the India-proposed Bhutan Bangladesh India Nepal (BBIN) initiative—a major plank of New Delhi’s Act East Policy. China is also backing the CMEC to impart greater focus to its energy security. Crude deliveries through a 771km-long China Myanmar oil pipeline from Kyaukpyu to Kunming, capital of China’s Yunnan Province, began in 2017. A parallel natural gas pipeline from Myanmar also terminates in Yunnan. Despite its promise, the CMEC faces serious security challenges. The corridor will run through insurgency-infested areas in the Shan and Kachin States of Myanmar. Unsurprisingly, Myanmar’s State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi met with Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe in Naypyidaw in June 2018 for talks.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: RE: https://thewire.in/media/mj-akbar-sexual-harassment/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-stog6NeQHo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgdTF8y-0w

Now that the cat is out of the bag, it's time to bell the cat by filing an FIR & adhering to the due process of law. Such matters cannot be limited to just public admonishment & that too in a highly patriarchal society. As I have stated numerous times before, the Indian society by & large goes by the dictums of RAM RAJYA where it is a pregnant Sita who is always required to undergo AGNI PARIKSHA in order to prove her chastity & no amount of any other form of evidence or alibi is considered as being enough! As long as such a regressive mindset prevails, there cannot be any hope for reversing this dastardly trend.

Meanwhile, Ret'd Lt Gen Zameeruddin Shah has at last in his book THE SARKARI MUSSALMAAN has exposed what exactly had happened during the 2002 Gujarat riots & who was responsible for what:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytlDsjUtsrU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNZHz7jWOEs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNZHz7jWOEs

To ARPIT KANODIA: Just monitor the various speeches of Xi Jinping from early 2013 till now & one will find out that he has been expressing growing doubts about China’s actual fighting capabilities. The only consequent assessment is the PLA are nowhere near as effective as they think they are. What if the recent drums of war are a sign of China’s weakness and not its impressive new strength? When Xi tells his troops to be ready for war, it’s really an admission that they’re in disarray. He’s saying, ‘You guys are drunk, fat, and happy, siphoning off all the money into private accounts, and you need to get real.'”

Darius said...

Hi Prasun, there is news that DRDO developed a glide bomb and tested in Pokharan recently. Is this truly an indigenous effort or an import with stamping work by DRDO?

Buddha said...

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/india-will-soon-find-out-trump-on-us-sanctions-for-s-400-deal-with-russia/articleshow/66157531.cms
Your comment sir..
http://idrw.org/drdo-testfires-quick-reaction-missile-off-odisha-coast/#more-183143
Good development... Isn't it
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/reliance-defence-was-freely-chosen-as-offset-partner-dassault-aviation/articleshow/66158011.cms
After this Pappu gang should stop
Buddha

Abhay Jain said...

Prasun Sir,

What do you think of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_5VrrG1A9o

Arpu said...

hello Prasun sir, China has developed hypersonic missiles which may overcome S-400 system. What is the news about our own HSTDV and hypersonic Brahmos?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

The range of the QRSAM stated albeit at 30+kms., albeit by media, is stated at 15kms. by IE. The range of the Akash which can reach higher altitude compared to the QRSAM is clear. But since QRSAM, it's ship borne SRSAM version and various versions of the Akash aka 1S and NG, with seekers, better propulsion systems being developed, with increased endurance, range etc., codeloved Barak8/MRSAM versions & now ordered for S-400 systems along with a variety of AD Guns, could you give a tabulated heads up on the various categories, applications and capabilities of SAM/AD systems that has been or is being acquired by the Services? A table in your current post would be lovely.
The realisation that China has to be confronted and is getting to be a threat from their Paki vassal CPEC western flanks to our eastern flank where it is trying to interfere in BD and control Myanmar is of course alarming and India will have to do some out of the box thinking because the Chinese threat as George Fernandez acknowledged China being India's No.1 enemy has always been making the Indian establishment wary.

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Dada does it point to some part of in action on NAMO ...

buddha said...

Rightly said sir....
When I started reading defence news in my early college days I found idiots of news paper did not know what a cruise and what a ballistic missile is.
It is you that 1st mentioned that Astra might find utility in QR SAM when all guns blazing for MICA i.e Maitri QRSAM.
Your prediction again coming to be true...
https://youtu.be/ahNv-pBPIWo
Today again pappu started shouting in very foolish manner.
What amazes me how intellectuals or serious persons of congress think tank tolerate this nonsense dumb head bachelor. If they need to impact in upcoming 2019 election they should focus on more issues related to common folk where BJP govt lacking behind. Only with Rafale gun blazing they are disrespecting national prestige .
Your comment sir.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DARIUS: It is the 450kg HSLD version of SAAW, which has combined GPS & laser guidance.

To BUDDHA/UNKNOWN: POTUS is waiting to see what India does about future imports of crude oil from Iran. If from Nobember 1 India stops importing Iranian crude, then POTUS will issue the waiver.

Here's the original link: http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/odisha/2018/oct/10/drdo-testfires-quick-reaction-missile-off-odisha-coast-1883553.html

For the 1st time in my life I have come across a claim that a QR-SAM version of a BVRAAM can be used as a warship-launched anti-cruise missile! Maybe this 'desi patrakaar' knows something that the rest of the world doesn't.

Ayush said...

Prasun sir, China has in the past reversed engineered almost every Russian military equipment it was supplied with. But still Russia exported the S-400 to them for some quick cash. I am concerned that they might already be working on reverse engineered S-400s some of which will definitely be supplied to Pakistan just like Chinese Smerch rockets (A-100 MRL) were.

Unknown said...

@Prasoon

Lt Gen Zaneeruddin shah has stated an interesting fact that logistic support was denied and only provided on 2nd march 2002, thus loosing crucial 24hrs resulting in additional death of 300 people. As per the trailing Indian express news, army started flag marches on the 1st of march 2002 itself.

http://expressindia.indianexpress.com/news/fullstory.php?newsid=7932

really human behaviour is strange. uprightness is a rare commodity in the modern world.

regards

kunal

Arun said...

Dear Sir

Just a Few Days Back Italian Air Force
Chief visited Pakistan

Now One Pakistani is saying that PAF
Is Interested in Second Hand EUROFIGHTERS of Italy

What is your view about this

AMIT BISWAS said...

https://youtu.be/h9Df_fNdHPw

What do u want to say about this idiot.....saying rafale is a test tube baby....I wonder who gave him the LLB degree

Satya said...

Sir, why does Barak 8 has slower speed than comparable missiles of similar range? Like Aster 30 has max speed of mach 5, 9M96E2 of S-400 flies at mach 15, but Barak 8 has max speed of just mach 2. Doesn't it make Barak 8 less effective/capable?

Kapil said...

Prasun da, in 5-6 years from now we are going to have a very formidable multi layer SAMs of various types to defend our airspace

1) SpyDer and QRSAM - 12 to 30 KM
2) Akash and Akash NG - 30 to 50 KM
3) Barak 8 and Barak 8ER - 70 to 150 KM
4) XRSAM - 250 KM
5) S-400 - 400 to 600 KM

Every aerial threat from drones to IRBMs is covered by this layer. Which brings me to the question: What are AAD, PAD and PDV meant for?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAPIL: SpYder-SR’s & QR-SAM’s max range will be 18km while Akash-NG’s range too will be 25km & the NG refers only to the dual-mode seeker (RF & IIR). Barak-8ER will have 110km-range, while S-400 will have 380km-range. PAD has been junked forever, while AAD & PDV continue to be developed, but these too have aerodynamic shortcomings, especially if one compares their airframe designs with those of the cone-shaped Russian SAMs used by the S-300VN & Antey-2500 systems. Hence, it appears that just as the DRDO had screwed-up the airframe design of Tejas Mk.1, history is being repeated with the sub-optimal airframe designs of the AAD & PDV.

To SATYA: Because Barak-8 was NEVER meant to be a BMD interceptor, whereas all the others you’ve mentioned are capable of usage for BMD. Barak-8’s targets are fully-armed inbound hostile MRCAs cruising at medium altitudes & fully-loaded MRCAs don’t cruise at speeds greater than Mach 1.8.

To BUDDHA & AMIT BISWAS: That MORON/IDIOT will then have to prove that a test-tube baby is biologically inferior to a normally-delivered baby! And since no one can prove this, this MORON/IDIOT will have to accept that the analogy he has offered is itself BULLSHIT. Secondly, it is the technical reasons that dictated the off-the-shelf procurement of the Rafales directly from Dassault Aviation, since no one in this world has as yet licence-built any 4th-generation MRCA whose product liability is assumed by the OEM. Even HAL will have to admit in any court of law that all its licence-built combat aircraft to date have not been covered by the OEM’s product liability guarantees. It is this point that will be highlighted by the IAF as justification for opting for off-the-shelf Rafales that come fully covered with product liability guarantees by the OEM, Dassault Aviation. All these points, which are UNDENIABLE, will prove once & for all that the PIL was nothing else but an utter waste of the Indian taxpayer’s money. Folks who are generalists & rabble-rousers like the ones now appearing on various TV channels, plus the likes of Bhushan-Shourie-Sinha will then have no other choice but to concede defeat & they will also then have to finally admit that licenced-production of foreign weapon systems NEVER translates into attaining self-reliance in the production of military hardware. Such folks have consistently lied to the Indian citizens for decades by spreading every kind of falsehood WRT indigenisation of military hardware production by deliberately glossing over the finer details of licenced-production & that’s why even in this blog we have folks who repeatedly & blindly ASSUME that industrial ToT means acquiring the know-how to build 100% desi military hardware!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARUN: LoLz! So how does one explain exactly how an ‘interest’ automatically translates into an assured/guaranteed procurement? And that too at a time when that country is approaching the IMF for another financial bailout while at the same time auctioning away cattle/buffaloes for raising funds for the national exchequer? To get a good idea of the mess that country is in, do read this:

https://theprint.in/opinion/pakistans-fortunes-cant-be-rescued-by-celebrity-pm-and-recycled-foreign-minister/132639/

To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: Nowhere in that article is it stated that the IA’s flag-marches commenced on March 1. All it states is that “Ahmedabad police chief P.C. Pande said soldiers would fan out to the affected areas shortly.” That is a statement in the future tense, not past tense, meaning the action had not commenced when he made that statement. So, kindly show me a report datelined March 2, 2002 which states that the IA’s flag-marches began a day earlier. If you cannot, then it means that Lt Gen Zoom is 100% right when he lays out the facts in his book. And that will also prove who—you or the Lt Gen—has an upright character as well as behaviour & who has been distorting facts.

To AYUSH: China had resorted to reverse-engineering older-generation weapon systems of Soviet origin at a time when it could count on industrial support from other countries who were once clients of the USSR but who had subsequent fallen afoul of the USSR, like Egypt & Albania. That situation does not exists anymore & hence China had no other choice but to ink a IPR Protection Agreement with Russia in 2011. If China decides to violate this agreement, then that will be the end of Sino-Russian military cooperation at a time when China has no other alternate supplier of relatively modern military hardware. In addition, Russia will then decide to punish China by stopping its supplies of crude oil & gas to China & will also stall China’s BRI-related road/rail connectivity with Europe.

To ENIGMA: I see no other option available to India.

To UNKNOWN: China is still experi8menting with various hypersonic platforms. They stuill a long away from operationalising them. HSTDV is a reusable shuttle vehicle & is not a weapon. Hypersonic BrahMos-2 will be available only in the latter half of the next decade.

To ABHAY JAIN: This is only a self-serving argument emanating from a typical national security state mindset. Pakistan has never posed any form of exietential threat to India. In fact, it has always been the other way around. While India has accepted the existence of a state called Pakistan, India has never agreed to accept the foundational ideological narrative of Pakistan. They are 2 different issues. China had posed as an existential threat to India until 1976. Not anymore.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Trump is wise, so he will not put any sanctions against India. He does not want any paradigm shift in the present attitude of India in any manner. His F-16 plans if any will crash immediately to his utter dismay. The Principle contradiction is between the Global Muslamic Terrorism Vs Rest of the world. The Central contradiction is between the US Vs China (and not the Russia). The Focal contradiction is between India Vs Pakistan, China and Muslamic terrorism. The Virtual contradiction between the US Vs Russia is severe but temporary. Trump knows all this. Kindly comment.

Rayudu said...

so saudi has given the chinese platforms to pakistan to use on iran but asusual they use them against india?

Unknown said...

@prasoon oops sent you the wrong link. Here is news report on army flag March on 1 march 2002

https://www.thehindu.com/2002/03/02/stories/2002030203050100.htm

Reproducing it below for convenience:

"AHMEDABAD, MARCH 1. The Army began flag marches in the worst-affected areas of Ahmedabad, Baroda, Rajkot and Godhra cities and the `shoot at sight' order was extended to all 34 curfew-bound cities and towns in Gujarat as the orgy of violence in the aftermath of the Godhra train carnage continued unabated for the second day today..."

In my reading this is election based political gaming. Also sworn affidavits of dgp before nanavati commission also corroborate that army was in streets of ahmedabad on 1 march 2002.

Regarding

Kunal

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: LoLz! As they say, seeing is believing. There are no photos of any flag-marches being conducted in Ahmedabad or Baroda on March 1, 2002. Not even a single TV footage of such flag-marches being conducted on that day. The news-report you have quoted was published in the March 2 edition of THE HINDU newspaper but with March 1 as the date of report-filing--a trick newspapers always resort to in India, although several have now started publishing the time-of-filing as well. Kindly show me any video footage from any available social media weblink showing the flag-marches being conducted on March 1. And I assure you I know much more better about the prevailing ground-situation in Gujarat at that time due to first-hand anecdotes I had heard from several IA personnel who were sent from Jodhpur to Ahmedabad. If you still reckon that Lt gen Zoom is lying or distorting facts, then please by all means file a PIL with any Indian court against him. I'm sure that will bring out the truth for everyone's satisfaction. This will also prove that the then Gujarat Police DGP had violated his oath of office through gross dereliction of duty & had also committed perjury before the Nanavati Commission.

RAYUDU: I fail to understand how such UAS platforms can be used against India since, when armed & airborne, they cruise at medium altitudes & are therefore clearly visible to any airspace surveillance radar. Furthermore, the PGMs that such UAS platforms carry have a range not exceeding 10km, meaning if they were to launch their PGMs against any Indian military formation on the ground, they will have to enter the kill-zone of Indian air-defence artillery. Furthermore, historical data to date shows that such armed UAS platforms have been employed against only those forces who have no guided air-defence missiles of any type at all.

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

48 UAS and that too in the reaper class is a major upgrade in their drone capabilities. Can these be used at sea? I guess they will lower their operating cost on the western front and these can loiter for a day. That is what the chatter seems to be that PAF wanted when it tested the earlier version few years ago.

Can these in the future be armed with Brimstone type system?

The chatter on their sites is that PAF is looking at least another 48 in the next phase and that many of these will not have all chinese content but a mix.

RAT

Arpu said...

hello prasun sir, kindly also tell us about the timeline regarding development of SFDR. When is it expected to be complete? and is the ramjet engine used in it is indigenous?

Sujit said...

Prasun sir, what wud be the range of drdo dual band irst for su30mki? Is it for super sukhoi upgrade? Wud it be advanced than rafale osf?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAT: It is a major upgrade only in terms of staying engaged in low-intensity conflicts against adversaries that have ZERO means of conducting air-defence operations from the ground. And during such operations over a singke tactical battle area, up to four armed UAS platforms are reqd to stay airborne since their slow cruise speed prevents them from quickly reaching the area where they are reqd at short notice. Such UAS can be used for maritime surveillance but can’t be used for maritime strike against any navy since such platforms can easily be shot down by SAMs in a clutter-free airspace. Hence, no one will use such platforms against any navy. If such platforms are used by the PAF for striking targets inside Afghanistan while staying inside Pakistani airspace, then Afghanistan will be forced to procure SHORADS. I choose not to pay any attention to any of the chatter sites since their content is overwhelmingly bullshit based on ill-informed speculation that is totally detached from reality.

To ARPIT AGARWAL: Timelines are insignificanty since no DRDO developmental effort adheres to timelines. All sub-systems of the propulsion system are indigenously designed & fabricated.

To SUJIT: Firstly, how many dual-band IRST sensors are in service worldwide? And how can an indigenously developed IRST sensor have only minimum 40% local content in terms of sub-systems & components? And what about the laser rangefinder that is reqd for measuring the distance of the airborne target?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

https://youtu.be/5AbnQCWcalQ

Mr.Priyajit Sarkar and this interview on Tag TV above bear out your statement about the colonial and oppressive Pakistani Punjabi establishment.

This should clear lot of hot air about Pakistan and it's so called Islamic Ummah who are supposed to defend Muslims everywhere and in South Asia, but beginning with erstwhile East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, have been busy exterminating and slaughtering non-punjabi Muslims & others in Baluchistan, FATA, KPK, Karachi and actively participating in perpetrating terror and killing in Afghanistan and Indian Kashmir.
It also exposes the colonial attitude of Punjabi Pakistan who first exploited the East Bengali and are now doing the same to the people of Baluchistan and elsewhere in Pakistan specially Karachi to ensure a comfortable and luxurious lifestyle for the Pak Punjabi establishment - the army, the landed gentry, the political, bureaucracy and judiciary at the cost of the non-punjabi Pakistani masses who are again rising up in revolt from PoK to Baluchistan & Karachi. It is India's historical duty to specially assist the opressed Baluchis & liberate Karachi and ofcourse PoK, which is our territory anyway.

Kaustav said...

Prasunda
Ofcourse, Very absorbing and interesting is the history of the non-muslim Chittagong and the hill tracts which were given to East Pakistan and the subsequent change of the demography by Muslim Bengali both after 1947 and 1971 as well as the insurgency there. The history of the Chakma Royal Family and their members namely diplomat Rajmata Bonita Roy nee Sen, her son HE Raja Tridiv Roy who very nearly became Pakistani President after choosing Pakistan in 1971 and abdicating the throne to his son Raja Debashish Roy, his sister HR lawyer Ms.Chandrika Kalindi Roy and the current King Raja Tribhuvan Roy who is btw married to an ethnic Rakhine.

The long and short of it is that Chittagong Port, the Hill tracts and people right up to Tripura should have gone to India, and God Forbid, the Awami League loses / deposed, we should not let Chittagong get away again by any means. It is the gateway for Tripura and NE India, by rights should have been with India even more than Gwadar in Baluchistan.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-new-non-alignment-india-russia-relations-5398186/

Claim: During or immediately after the 1962 India-China border war, Soviet Union provided no military assistance to India while Washington was generous with offers to Jawaharlal Nehru’s call for help.
Reality: Totally untrue. Way before the war, India bought Mi-4 helicopters & An-12B transport aircraft from the USSR because Moscow accepted full payment in Indian Rupees, & not in any other foreign currency.

Claim: The US had already given F-104 Starfighter to Pakistan in 1961 and it was expected India would get it without any opposition in Washington. But India was instead offered the much inferior F-105 Freedom Fighter.
Reality: Totally untrue. The US had offered the subsonic Douglas F4D Skyray, which was designed exclusively for the high-altitude interception role, with a high rate and angle of climb. This aircraft was also offered as a supersonic platform after being re-engined with 16,000lb thrust General Electric J79 engines. In addition, the US had also offered to foot the £13 million bill for developing the 3.700kgf afterburning Bristol Siddeley (later Rolls Royce) Orpheus BOr.12 engine rated at 30.29kN dry and 36.34kN with afterburning, for the then projected Mach 2 version of the HF-24 Marut. However, these 2 offers were not accepted simply due to the excuse given by the then Indian PM Lal Bahadur Shastri that he did not want to insult the late Pandit Chacha Nehru who, it seems, had promised the USSR back in 1961 that the IAF would definitely procure the MiG-21PF. This flimsy excuse was to prove to become the deathkneel for the HF-24 Marut project.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://www.dassault-aviation.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2018/10/AFP_Dassault_Rafale-India-EN.pdf

https://theprint.in/security/56-years-later-china-can-still-choke-indian-troops-the-way-it-did-in-1962/98044/

https://theprint.in/opinion/not-china-1962-war-called-indias-bluff/133196/

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2018/10/pakistan-release-pashtun-human-rights-defender-immediately-and-unconditionally/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=article&utm_term=&utm_campaign=social

Ravi said...

Prasun Sir, these are the quotes from the link you have posted-
https://theprint.in/security/56-years-later-china-can-still-choke-indian-troops-the-way-it-did-in-1962/98044/
“When you have a single-access existing and if somehow the adversary is able to create landslides to cut off that access, sustaining the troops in those areas becomes a problem and it also opens a way for the adversary to take advantage, come right behind and make sure that your positions in the front get defeated,” an MP quoted Gen. Kapoor as telling the committee in February
“On India’s side, we have very difficult terrain, unlike the Chinese where there is a plateau kind of thing...."


Question arises that is it practically impossible due to the difficult terrain to provide all weather connectivity to all the border outposts across LAC ?
What are the alternatives to single access roads because air transportation will not be able to sustain such a large amount of troops across the LAC during a war.

Enigma said...

https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-will-continue-to-buy-iranian-oil-to-some-extent-in-nov-s-c-garg-118101300048_1.html

India will continue to buy Iranian oil to some extent in November said Economic Affairs Secretary SC Garg.I fear the worst.

Sujit said...

Prasun sir, is nirbhay dead or what? Not heard about it since 2016..
2- between su57 and rafale which ones advanced? Kindly detail the advancement
3-when are we going to have lch and luh in service?? Lch has gone off the radar for few yrs no news nothing..only testing nd testing.

Aditya Kamble said...

Dear Prasun,
I have 2 questions-
1. Now since Pakistan is going to the imf would it be possible for it to pay for the proposed drone purchase or the submarine purchase from china and ship and helicopter purchase from turkey.
2. Since US enjoys highest vote share in imf will it be possible for the US to cap Pakistan's nuclear program as a pre condition for imf bailout.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI: Such a scenario works to the disadvantage of both warring parties. For the asttacker, such landslides can cut off the attacking formations into isolated pockets, thereby inhibiting the offensive. For the defender, prolonged periods of isolation results in deprivation of re-supply of ammo stores & food. Consequently, as was the case in 1962, the strong offensives by China won’t emanate from areas to the west & north of Arunachal Pradesh, but from areas to the north-east & east of Arunachal Pradesh but there too the IA is deployed there in successive tiers one behind the other, with all echelons being covered by friendly field artillery fire-support from higher dominating positions, i.e. perfect kill-boxes that will result in unbearable attrition lossess for any invader. On the other hand, since the terrain is gradually sloped on the Tibetan areas along the LAC, it will be far easier for the IAF to conduct tactical interdiction strikes against PLA re-supply roads by day & night, thereby making it almost impossible for the PLA to sustain any meaningful offensive ground campaigns against Arunachal Pradesh.

To ENIGMA: There’s still plenty of time till November 3, so one will have to wait & see.

To SUJIT: 1) Nirbhay LACM is still undergoing refinements for its projected ALCM, GLCM & SLCM variants. 2) The Rafale is today a mature product whereas the Su-57 isn’t. The latter requires far more refinement in order to become operationally functional. 3) By June 2019 the first LCHs will be handed over to the IAF. LUH from HAL is still awaiting its certificate of airworthiness.

To ADITYA KAMBLE: 1) Money for the drones is coming from Saudi Arabia while miney for the 8 Type 032 Qing-class su7bmarines is part of China’s funding for CPEC. No helicopter purchases from Turkey will take place as those helicopters have US-supplied engines whose product-support can be embargoed by the US. 2) That remains to be seen & is to be expected in the near future.

Enigma said...

Sir,you have stated many times that India has a far higher number of acclimatized soldiers compared to China and you have also said that the Indian Army is far more battle hardened than the PLA(who haven't had combat experience since 1979).So will India be able to get back Aksai Chin and the Shaksgam Tract in case there is a future conflict between India and China?

Arpu said...

thanks prasun sir, on subject of drones what happened to our chetak helicopter converted to drone project with Israel?

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cVO4AfnvO3M
The Big Picture: Negotiating U.S. Sanctions

DAshu said...

Just curious why PA is in the UK now. BTW mr PAPPU is giving real good stand up comedy these days.

Buddha said...

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/us/severe-punishment-if-saudi-arabia-behind-missing-khashoggi-trump-says/articleshow/66198017.cms
What sort of punishment will be there for Soudi .As they are close ally of U.S
Their petei dollar feeds US in many ways.
Buddha

gourav said...

Hi Prasun,
Your views on this news report please.

https://theprint.in/national-interest/india-gets-a-national-security-adviczar-it-is-ajit-doval/133795/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Gourav

Sujit said...

Prasun sir, indra networks tweeted yesterday about a russian source who said sukhoi is working on a new fifth gen fighter aircraft which will be mass produced..su 57 will not be mass produced but will go into further tests..is it true or fake??
Cauz if its true then india should go in right in the design stage

Kaustav said...

Sir, a query - What are programmable bullets?

Prashant said...

Hi Prasun,
1. Will any of Indian forces want medium or heavy category version of current LCH ? Or will they be always looking for Russia or other foreign assets for the job.? Is there potential for heavier LCH with comparative quality?

2. Is there a way to get defense against Ababeel MIRV missile from Pakistan. We at border feel insecure as Delhi has decided to put all defence assets only to protect Delhi/mumbai and important assets only.

3. Do you assess our current strike corps still have ability to get through deep inside Pakistan in state of war? Or those days are long gone after smaller nuclear missile built by both side?

Suvo said...

প্রসূনদা,আপনাকে ও আপনার পরিবারকে শুভ শারদীয়ার প্রীতি ও শুভেচ্ছা জানাই। ভালো থাকবেন।

Aditya Kamble said...

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-has-a-two-pronged-rs-4500-cr-border-plan-for-bangladesh-in-the-making/articleshow/66196481.cms

Looks like some one sane in the GOI read your blog..... good development indeed.

Harsh said...

Sir, please explain: how many spyder units in iaf and number of launchers per unit and missile inventory of derby and python 5 missiles

CSC said...

Your comments on these two reports please.

https://defenceupdate.in/asean-beyond-india-using-act-east-policy-expand-geopolitical-footprint-world/

https://defenceupdate.in/rafale-deal-bears-fruit-india-to-get-two-major-missile-assembly-units/

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
When we are talking about Air-defence, thought I would share this one with you...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=objljEE7B6M

Happy Durga Pujo to you and family.

Kane