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Saturday, July 3, 2021

Missing The Woods For The Trees

The two back-to-back televised interviews given yesterday by India’s first-ever Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Gen Bipin Rawat and the Indian Air Force’s 26th Chief of Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria, have not only caused much consternation, but have also exposed the intellectual faultlines between the three armed services. Here are the two interviews:

CDS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwhbsvN9o_I

CAS of IAF: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7timgL3mEa4

Such intellectual faultlines, which have developed since the early 1960s, are primarily due to the perceptional ‘battle horizons’ of each of the three armed services. For instance, the Indian Army (IA) generally has a battle horizon of “a day’s march”, within which it sees its battlespace. The Indian Navy (IN), on the other hand, operates in a few Knots per hour domain, while the Indian Air Force (IAF) operates new “a few hundred Knots per hour” domain. Consequently, the IAF’s airpower has the capability to strike across the targetting cycle, directly at the enemy’s military and political leadership, if so desired, while prosecuting war at all three levels—tactical, operational and strategic—in any air campaign seamlessly. It is such perceptional differences that caused the CDS to define the IAF as being a “supporting warfighting arm” yesterday, which in turn throws into danger the armed forces’ projected objectives of achieving theaterisation of the armed forces and the adoption of joint and synergised warfighting doctrines. Such deep-rooted perceptional divergences have not arisen overnight, but are rooted in illogical decision-making processes that began way back in the early 1960s. Here is the first recorded divergence highlighted in the slide below:

As a result, the IA frittered away a golden opportunity to co-locate the geographical commands of the IA and IAF under one roof, and delayed the raising of an Army Air Corps by another 24 years (it was finally raised on November 1, 1986 for operating only LUHs, while approval for the IA to operate attack helicopters came only in August 2017). The IA then could easily have driven a hard bargain and in return for agreeing to the IAF retaining ownership, command-and-control over SAGW assets, it could have had its own integral fleets of aeroscout, CASEVAC and attack helicopters (to meet its immediate air-support requirements), thereby freeing the IAF to focus on air-defence, deep-strike and tactical interdiction missions.


It was in 1975 that the then Govt of India appointed an expert committee (on re-organisation & Modernisation of the IA) in 1975 to undertake, probably for the first time, a long-term perspective plan for the IA. The committee was headed by Lt Gen (later General) Kotikalapudi Venkata Krishna Rao, with Major Generals M L Chibber and K Sunderji as members and Brig A J M Homji as secretary. It was mandated to present a perspective plan till the year 2000. Interestingly, the mandate was given under challenging circumstances, which despite the prospect of a two-front war, required the Army to cap its strength at 8.38 lakh (in order to cater for increased budgetary pressures in the aftermath of the 1973 Middle East oil crisis). The committee’s report of nine volumes, encompassing 1,740 pages, contained far-reaching recommendations, which were to be implemented over 25 years. Although the report was accepted by the Govt of India, most of the recommendations were not acted upon. The principal recommendations were:

1) Creation of the post of Chief of Defence Staff.

2) Transformation of the offensive infantry formations from motorised to mechanised.

3) Creation of a Unified Air-Defence Command led by the IAF.

4) Creation of a Joint Logistics Command.

5) Creation of a Joint Training Command. Therefore, it is fallacy to claim that the creation of the post of CDS was first proposed by the Kargil Review Committee or the Naresh Chandra Committee, or that the proposal for raising a Unified Air-Defence Command was born in 2016.

In the existing system each service plans its own logistics following its own planning, provisioning, transportation and delivery model. This has resulted in tremendous amount of duplication, long inventories, and a colossal waste of precious resources that goes against the very ethos of an efficient economy. It is imperative that the logistics organisations of the three armed services are integrated into one, thereby enabling optimisation of resources. The UK Chief of Defence Material, US Defence Logistics Agency, and the PLA’s Joint Logistics Support Force (JLSF) have all functioned very efficiently and India too needs to create a Joint Logistics Command.

 

There are few organisational structures in place that could meaningfully formulate or impart the desired level of joint training. The essential ingredients of a joint training system (philosophy, infrastructure, and processes) need to be implemented. Therefore, to give impetus to jointness and promote synergy amongst the three armed services, there is a need to start training officers together from junior command and equivalent courses onwards. Integration of the three higher command courses into one curriculum would be the next logical step akin to higher defence management courses and at the National Defence College. The role of HQ Integrated Defence Staff (IDS) should be extended from merely promulgating joint doctrine and joint military strategy, from which flow the individual service doctrines, to being fully integrated in the planning and conduct of joint exercises and the validation of the joint doctrine and military strategy. This necessitates the creation of an integrated joint training command under which all training establishments function.


Since future military operations will be conducted in the backdrop of cyber warfare and information dominance, this necessitates synchronisation of all resources for better synergy and utilization. The necessity of a tri-services Cyber Command has already been accepted by the armed services. In 2008, an Integrated Space Cell under HQ IDS was established for integration between the armed forces, the Department of Space, and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). The logic behind the creation of a Joint Aerospace Command is abundantly clear: firstly, as India’s requirements for space applications increase, the necessity of a single agency coordinating different activities becomes paramount. Secondly, the presence of a single entity will allow India to better promote its national interests in Outer Space as it becomes increasingly crowded and contested. Though its necessity has been accepted by the armed services, one needs to look at US model where it has merged its Space Command into the Strategic Command, which now looks after both the nuclear and space realms, while a separate Space Force Command was raised in December 2019. In 2013, the Indian Armed Forces have submitted a proposal for the creation of three new tri-service commands: Cyber command, Aerospace command, and Special Operations Command. As per the plans, the Special Operations Command will be headed by an IA officer and the Aerospace Command by an IAF officer, while the Cyber Command will get its head on a rotational basis from the three services.

Dismal Joint Forces Warfighting Record

Conceptually, jointness implies the synergised use of resources of the three armed services in a seamless manner to achieve the best results in the least possible time. The idea is to avoid needless redundancy and optimally utilise available resources. Jointness implies cross-services combination wherein the capability of the joint force is understood to be synergistic, with the sum greater than its parts (the capability of individual components). Joint forces also require high levels of inter-operability and systems that are conceptualised and designed with joint architectures and acquisition strategies. This level of inter-operability reduces technical, doctrinal and cultural barriers that limit the ability of joint force commanders to achieve their assigned objectives. The goal is to employ joint forces effectively across the range of military operations. Firstly, based on unity of effort, jointness seeks to focus all the energy of armed forces across the range of military operations, throughout all levels of war, in every environment toward enhancing the effectiveness of military operations. Secondly, joint forces provide commanders with multi-dimensional capabilities (land, sea, air, syber, space and special operations) that are more effective than uni-service forces by providing a wider range of operational and tactical options. Finally, multiple service capabilities allow an innovative forces commander to combine joint capabilities in asymmetrical as well as symmetrical ways to produce a total military impact that is greater than the sum of its parts. To be truly integrated, the coordinating mechanisms must be so designed that an assorted force can be immediately assembled and dispatched to meet various contingencies/scenarios. Integrated forces are premised on the presence of a theatre commander with over-riding authority. He/she is vested with authority and the resources to undertake operational missions, and is alone responsible for the employment of all three armed services components functioning under him/her. His/her orders will cut down the response time in developing situations during operations, and exploit fleeting windows of opportunity.


The need for jointness in the Indian context was well appreciated even at the time of India’s independence. India inherited a command structure for the services that had unity of command, under a Commander-in-Chief. Soon, a Joint Services Wing was set up for training officer cadets, which later became the Khadakvasla-based National Defence Academy, followed by the establishment of the Wellington-based Defence Services Staff College. To these were added, in due course, the College of Defence Management at Secundrabad at a more senior level, and finally, the National Defence College at New Delhi for training officers of the rank of Brigadier and equivalent. This framework for joint training of officers at different levels and to bring them together again at different stages of their careers was, therefore, well laid out and continues till date. It has yielded some good results in bringing about inter-service bonhomie. However, optimisation in jointness for conventional warfighting continues to elude India’s armed forces.


The India-Pakistan conflict in 1947-1948 was essentially an IA action, with the IAF’s airpower being used only to transport troops and equipment and to provide limited close air-support (aerial straffing) to ground troops. Later, in 1961, the military was again involved in a brief two-day conflict to liberate Goa, but this was without any opposition. In the conflict with China in 1962, the IAF and the IN did not come into play at all in any offensive manner (with the IAF only conducting limited tactical recce and extensive air-maintenance and CASEVAC sorties with fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters) and watched from the sidelines. Finally, the three armed services did come to fight together against Pakistan in 1965, but without any pre-conceived synergised battle-plan. In short, in all these conflicts, whatever their extent and severity, it was essentially only land-based force projection that came into play. The IAF did participate more meaningfully in the 1965 war, but without much synergy with the plans of the IA. No post-conflict enquiries or studies were ordered or conducted by India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD). The war with Pakistan in 1971 was the first real military operation since Independence in which all three armed services were full participants. By April 1971, it had been assessed that military conflict was likely, even inevitable. The then Chief of the Army Staff, Gen (later Field Marshal) S H F J Manekshaw wanted time to complete preparations, for the monsoon season to get over and also for winter to set in so that mountain passes on the India-China border would be rendered impassable. These factors taken together, allowed the armed forces about seven months to get their act in order. In this period, it was expected that the military would formulate a common and synergised OP-PLAN into which operations of all three armed services would be dovetailed. This did not happen. There was no integrated planning of the campaign, which resulted in quite a few unplanned and uncoordinated decisions being made. As the war progressed, for example, the sudden decision to launch an ground assault on Chittagong, was soon changed to Cox Bazaar. The troops chosen, Gurkhas, with their short stature and relative unfamiliarity with water, were singularly unsuited for that purpose. There was no training, and beach survey, a crucial prerequisite, was inadequate. Not surprisingly, the operation was a total fiasco with no aims achieved and some lives lost. In another episode, IAF Gnats attacked Mukti Bahini vessels operating in the waters off Khulna without being aware that these were friendly forces. One of the two boats sank, some of the crew killed, and others wounded and captured. The attacks carried out on vital installations at Karachi from the air and by sea, were also not part of any combined plan. There are other instances of mismatch between the different wings. Lt Gen J F R Jacob, who, as Chief of Staff of the IA’s Eastern Command was responsible for conduct of operations in the eastern sector, subsequently went on record to say that the three wings of the military went about doing their own things without any synergy. The war was fought in a tripartite fashion with no unified or accountable military authority in command even though, as might be expected, Gen Manekshaw as the then Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) was primus inter pares for the political leadership. Not unexpectedly, this reluctance to boldly institutionalise the ground reality resulted in more discord than harmony.


India’s armed forces were called to action in 1987 once again, albeit in a somewhat modified role, when they were asked to proceed as the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to Sri Lanka. The COSC appointed the GOC-in-C Southern Command, Lt Gen Depinder Singh as the Overall Force Commander (OFC). Component Commanders from the three armed services were subordinated to him with command of operational forces delegated from the Eastern Naval Command and the Southern Air Command, respectively. A formal Directive was issued to the OFC to undertake the ordered missions in Sri Lanka. While on surface it appeared that the Indian military hierarchy had finally come of age; alas, this proved too good to be true. In less than a month from the time that IPKF moved into Sri Lanka, the situation was turned on its head. The IN and IAF Cs-in-C, responsible for providing forces, declined to delegate command and forced their superiors in New Delhi, i.e., the Service Chiefs, to get the component commanders designated as Liaison Officers with no role other than to act as go-betweens between the OFC’s HQ and of the Cs-in-C. Relatively junior officers were appointed to do this work, further diluting the authority and accountability of the OFC. The COSC, with no permanent head, was, itself, shown up as a weak structure, with its own internal rifts and dissension and incapable of enforcing its will. The IPKF grew from one Division in 1987 to four by 1989, but it was never one force under one command, as originally contemplated. The OFC lost credibility and was, in effect, just the commander of the land forces, with the IAF and IN cooperating, but independently. Apart from the political infirmities of the intervention, poor command-and-control must rate as the most important military failure of OP PAWAN.


OP VIJAY in 1999 was essentially a land battle in which some offensive airpower was used under OP VIJAY to soften enemy positions and conduct tactical recce sorties. The IN, somewhat exaggeratedly, decided to concentrate its entire strength on the western seaboard (such deployments do not come without great cost) under OP TALWAAR, signalling a degree of belligerence not visible in the political posture. It took two months for the IA forces to regain the heights after Pakistan was forced to withdraw. This time too, there were glaring mismatches between the highest military leadership. The IAF was not prepared to provide the Mi-25/Mi-35P attack helicopters that the IA requested since such platforms could not fly over the Pir Panjal mountain range while taking off fully loaded from air bases in southern Jammu & Kashmir. In fact, the IAF at that time did not even deploy a single airspace surveillance radar north of the Zoji La Pass! The IA, for its part, was reluctant to share full details of what had actually happened. When the IA sought air-strikes for immediate air-support, the then CAS of the IAF, ACM A Y Tipnis, disingenuously, demurred on the logic that this required political approval (despite such air-strikes being conducted within India-controlled airspace along the LoC). In short, once again the armed forces stumbling into action without a synergised plan.


This is because the three Service Chiefs, despite having been converted from Commanders-in-Chief of their respective wings into Chiefs of Staff in 1955, continue to act in their former roles and are, therefore, responsible for the conduct of operations. They do this by issuing directives to their respective commanders. For example, in the IN, these are the Western and Eastern Naval Commands which, in turn, give out orders to their subordinate operational commanders and task forces. Where any assistance is required from another wing, say air-support from the IAF, this has to be arranged through the Mumbai-based Maritime Air Operations (MAO) Directorate, an IAF institution, acting as the link. The MAO interacts with the appropriate IAF geographic Command HQ which, in turn, issues instructions to the IAF air base holding the relevant air assets. Often, IAF HQ itself may have to be approached. The arrangement is about the same as far as the IA is concerned. All operational geographic IA Commands have IAF elements attached to them, not as subordinates but as advisers. They, in turn, interact with their own superiors to arrange the desired support through IAF air bases. In brief, the inter-services interaction is through several tiers, both laterally and vertically. The desired air-support might not be provided, possibly for good reason and even if it is, may not be in the form and strength requisitioned. Thus, the person responsible for execution of a task does not have control over all the forces that are deployed. On the other hand, the authority providing supporting forces is not responsible for the successful achievement of any operation. The shortcomings of this system were and are readily apparent: the IAF has no role to play in the Cold Start doctrine of the IA, nor is the IAF being consulted by the IA for inputs on the composition of terrain-specific Integrated Battle Groups!

The Sequential Way Ahead

If one were to access the combat theaterisation processes adopted by countries like the US and China, it will emerge that both these countries have had to embrace on a colossal scale simulation technologies that firstly aimed at optimising joint, synergised warfighting doctrines, tactics and technologies, and secondly through these, achieve consolidation of the capabilities, capacities and resources that are required for combat theaterisation. Wargames are analytic games that simulate aspects of warfare at the tactical, operational, or strategic level. They are used to examine warfighting concepts, train and educate commanders and analysts, explore scenarios, and assess how force-planning and posture choices affect campaign outcomes. The US has developed various types of wargames, including short-term (one to two years), medium-term (five to seven years), and long-term (seven to 20 years) scenario exercises, table-top map exercises, “Day After…” wargames, and computer-supported exercises. In 1984, the War Gaming and Simulation Center (WGSC) was founded at the US National Defense University.  WGSC was responsible for the design and delivery of all experiential events associated with the colleges across the NDU.  At this time, the WGSC exercises focussed primarily on politico-military exercises via the use of tabletop exercises and traditional “blue vs. red” scenarios. Following the tragic events of September 11, 2001, Vice Admiral Gaffney, the then NDU President, was determined to ensure that the WGSC become a true national asset for strategic-level exercises.  So, in 2002, given this directive, the WGSC was transformed into the National Strategic Gaming Center (NSGC) where it became responsible for not only providing national strategic-level exercises in support of the JPME mission of NDU, but also providing exercise design and delivery assistance to the warfighter via exercises for the various Combatant Commands, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the White House, and Congress, i.e., the all-of-country approach. 


In 1979, China first established an operational planning analysis research structure and began to simulate military operational problems. Operational planning analysis incorporated aspects of computers, information technology, and other new elements of science and technology to warfare, in ways that had not been possible in the ideologically charged Mao-era. As the PLA sought to inculcate officers with greater familiarity with advanced technologies, the increasingly complex and sophisticated problems of modern warfare could no longer be addressed solely through classroom discussions. This lent impetus to the creation of a number of forms of computerised wargaming and operational modelling software, such as “Joint 99” and the “Red Star System.” In addition, major PME institutions such as the Ground Forces Staff College at Shijiazhuang, as well as the various Military Region (MR) HQs, all had their own computerised wargaming centres. It is in the midst of this period, in 1997, that Maj Gen Hu Xiaofeng came to the fore. Hu was transferred from the National University of Defence Technology (NUDT) to the National Defence University (NDU) in 1997 by order of the Central Military Commission (CMC) itself to take charge of the PLA’s computer wargaming efforts. He had been one of the first students to be enrolled in Dr Qian Xuesen’s Systems Engineering & Mathematics Department. Thus, Hu’s academic pedigree was impeccable, being associated with the man identified as the father of China’s nuclear and space programmes. Hu attracted the attention of senior PLA leaders because of his familiarity with systems engineering, and the belief that PLA wargaming would have to incorporate aspects of this field. At the same time, however, Hu also had a military background. He was among the first students to enter the PME system after the revival of the national testing system, and had enrolled at the newly re-established NUDT. He also worked extensively on military information & communications systems after graduating. Hu’s efforts received highest level support from within the PLA. This was important, since Hu initially had trouble attracting sufficient human resource talent to help write the various software programmes. His efforts were facilitated, even accelerated, by the decision in 1999 to consolidate various warfighting laboratories and wargaming efforts within a single organisational structure and a unified training system. Hu was made chief designer and subject matter leader for the PLA’s entire operations analysis laboratory development effort, and the NDU was made the central nodal institution housing it. Hu and his team engaged in extensive research, visiting MRs to interview hundreds of officers, and writing over ten million lines of code in the course of their development effort. Their initial product, introduced in the early 2000s, was the “Whetstone” (or “Sword Sharpening”) series of operational-level command training models. These were China’s first efforts at a computer-based, war-zone level, intranet-based campaign exercise. Hu subsequently designed the first strategic-level computerised wargames, the “Absolute Victory” series, incorporating economic and political elements into the military systems. He also designed an “immersion style” multi-player networked gaming system to facilitate strategic-level decision-making. These efforts garnered for Hu high-level recognition, including awards for advancing both the national level of science and technology and military science and technology. In 2007, Hu began designing a computerised wargaming system that would link strategic- and campaign-level operations. PLA writings suggest that, since the renewed focus on developing tri-services PLA wargames in 2007, their wargaming efforts, and specifically their computerised wargaming systems, are intended to support two key areas: CMC-level command-and-control decision-making; and decision-making under wartime conditions, including informational uncertainty amidst dynamic, constantly changing conditions.


Part of the objective was to accelerate the decision-making cycle, since the multi-domain network-centric battlespace will not allow for delays. Command-and-control decision-making, especially in “local wars under high-tech conditions,” or now under multi-domain network-centric conditions, must focus on the development of plans and responses, often in immediate response to developing circumstances, rather than the previous emphasis on implementing process and procedures developed long in advance of the conflict or situation. Computerised wargames are thus seen as promoting closer situational analysis, more flexible tactics, and training commanders and staffs to “think more completely, more precisely, more deeply, which will produce more effective levels of command stratagem.” This more flexible, more responsive training, in turn, requires the ability to make clear whether any particular decision is right or wrong, beneficial or harmful. It is also essential to identify key points in the course of a campaign, i.e., which decisions were most important, and at what points are decision-making necessary. Identifying such moments and decisions requires a degree of rigour to be credible, and cannot be the function of biases or relationships. PLA literature 20 years ago suggests that previous attempts at developing wargaming (not necessarily just computerised wargaming) yielded results that were either scripted, or influenced by subjective assessments.


The new computerised systems, by contrast, allow more “free play” and autonomy on the part of players, but with the results derived more objectively. When one computerized wargame reported high casualties in the course of an action, the underlying algorithms could be displayed to allow players to better understand the results. This need for rigour is especially important, as the PLA apparently is also seeking to incorporate more realism into its wargames. In particular, wargames can help emulate both the time-urgency associated with modern warfare, as well as uncertainty due to the lack of complete battlespace situational awareness. This latter aspect has been a source of PLA concern and commentary for at least a decade. Thus, the ability to incorporate the fog of war and uncertainty has thoroughly altered the thinking and command styles of PLA commanders and their staffs. It is Hu Xiaofeng’s efforts, as well as the perceived utility of computerised wargaming, that has led to a growing employment of such systems within the PLA. Intriguingly, it would appear that such games started with simulations of inter-service strategic problems, and have since expanded towards more tactical simulations, at the individual service-level. By 2013 tactical-level wargames were employed by all MRs and Military Districts, while the individual armed services engaged in combined-arms (i.e., inter-branch) wargames, in addition to joint inter-services wargames.


In India’s case too, similar sequential, scientific steps are required to be taken, firstly, for achieving jointness, and only then embracing combat theaterisation. For this to happen, the Indian NDU (INDU) at Gurugram, under construction since May 2013, needs to be operationalized ASAP, followed by the establishment of a multi-domain national wargaming centre within the INDU’s campus.

Ways To Achieve Jointness

Back in the previous decade, the world got its first-ever demonstration of joint forces network-centric multi-domain warfare operations when for the very first time new-generation common data-links were put to use during OP Iraqi Freedom (OIF) to ensure inter-operability, create common operational battlespace pictures, and increase situational awareness to hitherto unprecedented levels. Closing the sensor-to-shooter loops with precision and with rapidity differentiated OIF from the German ‘Blitzkrieg’ aerospace-air-land coordination. The various OIF campaigns were precise because all objects were digitised and de-conflicted before an engagement. This was a result of real-time blue and red force tracking through a myriad of sensors integrated using near real-time ODLs. The sensor-to-shooter loops were shorter because the sensors and shooters were tightly integrated through a series of stacked data-links in many cases. A combination of video imagery feeds, situational awareness updates and command-and-control data-links created a real-time collaboration environment for prosecuting all the warfighting operations in which the environment was highly localised and supported a few nodes (for a sensor-to-shooter system), reflecting a near-optimal pairing of sensors and weapons to target. In effect, airpower was reinforced; the integration of a myriad of sensors, intelligence analysts, planners and decision-makers using data links reinforced the effective use of joint forces (army, navy and air force) airpower.


The various types of data-links using Time-Division Multiple Access (TDMA) techniques that were employed during OIF included:

1. Common data-links (CDL), used for down linking sensor information to the ground control stations of command-and-control nodes. They were used to support the exchange and fusion of intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) information and employed mainly by manned ISR platforms.

2. Tactical common data-links (TCDL), a part of the CDL family, used to equip unmanned aerial platforms (UAS) that were used for ISR applications.

3. Link-16, which is the US Department of Defense’s primary tactical data information Link (TADIL) based on J-series messages for airborne battle management. It was used for exchanging command-and-control messages between various manned and unmanned aerial platforms, i.e., surveillance tracks, electronic warfare, weapons coordination, etc. It supported a wide area of operations within a 300nm diameter.

4. The enhanced position location reporting system (EPLRS)/situational awareness data-link (SADL), which complemented Link 16 by providing the ground situational awareness picture. Aircraft equipped with SADL also share air surveillance tracks and command-and-control information updates.

5. Video data-links, which provided information/video downlinks from UAS and target-designation pods carried by combat aircraft to specific joint tactical air-control (JTAC) centres and/or special operations forces (SOF) with specially encrypted transceivers.

Of these five data-links, the EPLRS played an important role when unleashing fire-assaults (via both ground-based artillery and manned/unmanned aerial platforms) because it was able to display the five closest friendly units within proximity, regardless of the target position. This was critical as the Blue Force Tracker (BFT) provided a non-real-time update of Blue Forces’ position, with refreshes occurring approximately every five to ten minutes. The information from BFT could not be used to gauge the accurate position of a unit to avoid fratricides. The video downlinks from UAS and target designation pods gave JTACs and SOF units a positive identification of a target. It also enabled the JTACs and SOF units to guide shooters like combat aircraft to the targets. Battle damage assessment (BDA) through the video downlinks was also instantaneous, enabling a faster decision to re-strike if necessary. While EPLRS and video data-links provided the capability for precise and rapid decentralised execution, the suite of CDLs, TCDLs and Link-16 provided the means for integrating intelligence with command-and-control nodes, enabling centralised control and the efficient allocation of resources, such as weapons and sensors to target pairing. Such an increase in the sophistication of data-links enabled integration and operational effectiveness. However, it came with a price. The Germans during World war-2 had relied mainly on HF radios for communications. This entailed the same frequency and waveform operations. The advantage was greater manageability and unquestioned inter-operability across air-land elements. OIF used different types of data-links. Consequently, for inter-operability, ‘gateways’ were required. For example, integrating Link-16 and EPLRS/SADL required the Transparent Multi-Platform Gateway (TMPG). The TMPG translated Link-16 TADIL-J messages to SADL-type messages. The different types of data-links have thus created a situation where gateways have now become a necessity. The gateways can be deployed on various types of ground-based, naval and airborne platforms. The manageability, mobility, persistence and survivability of these platforms have to be factored into the mission equations for success. Recognising the problem, the US has since embarked on fielding the joint tactical radio system (JTRS), a software-defined radio (SDR) which uses the wideband networking waveform (WNW) technique for harmonising joint services usage of this technology. Any radio system wirelessly transmits/receives signals in the radio frequency (RF) spectrum to facilitate the transfer of information. The SDR is a very special kind of system in which the physical layer functions are defined as software functionality, i.e., a software code executes the role of a circuit board of the conventional radio and software-based filtering algorithms are used for frequency selection. The software generates the communications signal waveform, which is equivalent to a modulated signal, making SDR capable of communicating over a large portion of the spectrum whilst supporting multiple protocols. These software algorithms are downloadable and adaptable over the lifespan of the hardware. Thus, the SDR is a multi-mode, multi-band and multi-functional radio requiring only a software upgrade for improvements, whereas traditional hardware-based radios have cross-functionality limitations and can only be modified through physical changes.

Another real force-multiplier that enhances battlespace situational awareness by generating and disseminating a common operational picture and improving the management of all linked command-and-control/ISR networks is the versatile, modular and scalable, multi-data-link processor (DLP) that can be configured/customised as required by the end-user. When integrated with the CDL, the DLP, the result is a network-centric suite that enables a seamless, configurable and expandable integration of data-links on naval, ground-based and airborne platforms. The DLP-CDL combination can thus be connected through an agnostic interface to multiple hosts like land-based, shipborne and airborne command-and-control centres in a way that facilitates network integration, as well as future upgrades and maintenance requirements over time, thus reducing costs and risk. The definition and design of any data-link architecture has to capture a wider spectrum of operational contexts, functions and processes. It has also to be synchronised across different services or units to achieve a degree of integration and operational effectiveness. For example, an air-strike should not result in fratricide and should not slow the advance of ground mechanised units. Instead, the air-strike should reinforce and enhance the mobility of friendly mechanised forces. In order to achieve this, both land and air elements are required to share a common data-link capability. This common capability provides ease of integration of all necessary force elements and enables a shorter warfighting cycle to be achieved. Thus, the DLP-CDL combination has to be engineered to support a very rich picture of the battlespace and at the same time reduce the synchronisation time of all warfighting elements.

In India’s case, adoption of the DLP-CDL combination in future will be mandatory if the desired end-state is to achieve joint service warfighting through the synchronisation of existing standalone networks like the Indian Army’s Army Strategic Operational Information Dissemination System (ASTROIDS) and its subordinate Command Information and Decision Support System (CIDSS), the IA-owned ADC & RS, the Indian Navy’s NAVNET and multi-band LINK-II Mod-3 network, and the Indian Air Force’s Integrated Air Command, Control and Communication System (IACCCS). This is what should be the immediate point-of-focus when creating an IAF-led Unified Air-Defence Command.

196 comments:

Millard Keyes said...

India has learned to follow the once colonial master Britain in red tape/bureaucracy and even improvise to raise it by another notch. From what I read I can compare that with a man wanted to use the toilet but there are no clear signs which of the rooms around him is a toilet- so he has to knock on each door and see for himself which is it until he can hold on no more and just go. The Indian leadership counts on strong bladder/bowel control and retention capability but never plans for sudden loss of such. However this mindset is prevalent in all structures of the government - civil and military. What perpetuates this mindset is a total lack of accountability.

Harsh said...

so this has happened now��

https://thewire.in/external-affairs/setback-for-modi-macron-as-french-judge-opens-criminal-investigation-into-rafale-deal-with-india

I don't think follow on orders will be possible now

feeling like as a nation we are cursed

The day we signed for 1st lot of 36.... many bastards decided that they won't allow purchase of a single more by whatever means possible

some bad omen is stalking our modernisation process for decades

DAshu said...

I get stumped every time when I read motorized vs mechanized infantry :( then google uncle comes to the rescue.
Indian history will definitely remember this current CDS for sure.
Good thread for my long weekend.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HARSH: That news-report's heading is at variance with the news content, i.e. only a judicial investigation has been ordered for re-opening. No criminality has been established as yet. Secondly, France unlike India is practical & hence if any wrongdoing emerges, then the concerned OEMs will be fined & penalised, but not at the cost of cancelling any contract. Only in India can contracts (like that of the AW-101) be cancelled without any criminality being proven.

To DASHU: VMT. In the concluding part, I will explain the way forward & how it is to be done.

Arun said...

Hello sir.Back here after a long time.The situation in Afghanistan is concerning.

1)Is Afghanistan heading towards civil war?

2)Are the Afghan forces capable enough against the Taliban?Can they defend Kabul?

3)Afghanistan is an important ally of India.How do you see India-Afghanistan relations playing out in the future?

4)Do you see any possibility of China making an entry into Afghanistan within the next 10 years?

5)How far away is the endgame in Afghanistan?What needs to be done to solve the Afghanistan problem?

6)What effects will any of these events have on Gilgit-Baltistan?Will any of these events make America or Russia want India to capture this piece of land(which will give India access to Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor)?

Regards,
Arun.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARUN: The following 3 videos clearly explain what the future holds for Afghanistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ga1WK5UvbJs&t=123s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1x3sAX-9poo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pe308Cul48Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xlliXcQwK8

For as long as NATO provides financial assistance, Afghanistan's armed forces will hold out. But Pakistan does not want Afghanistan to be strong & stable since this will enable Afghanistan to claim back the entire KPK province & portions of Balochistan as its own territory, because in legal terms, there's no IB between Afghanistan & Pakistan & the Durand Line was meant to be only a frontier-limit, and not an IB. There exists no international treaty that provides any legal sanctity to the Durand Line & this therefore is Pakistan's nightmare security scenario (that's why it is fencing the Durand Line & not the IB with India). For India to liberate GB, the IAF requires much more helilift capacity than it currently has. Without this, air-mobile vertical envelopment operations cannot be carried out over mountainous terrain.

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- do you think CDS shoots of his mouth too often for comfort. its not the first time that his stmts have stirred controversies. who amongst the 2 is more more realistic
2- Rafale investigation b'coz of some nobody news publisher having leftist ideology.. it just goes to show the left leaning world wide is hell bent on chasing Modi .. Congress/left overseas arm involvement?I bet nobody even in france knew abt mediapart's existence. Not to be missed is the fact that amongst the developed west...France is the most prominent left leaning society
3- Motor Sich had offered 50% stake to turkey & now offering its engines for TT129 which turkey will sell to pakis.. what impact will it have ? how should India react?
4- what stops India to come out more openly supporting Pashtun Tahafuz movement, Amjed Ayub Mirza & the Balochis?
5- Shouldn't India have a base in Greece/Armenia/Egypt to keep turkey in check?
6-Another Chinese port -this time in Tanzania, why do these countries fall for it when so much is written about its downside? how is India countering the colombo port city project..
7--Will US _NATO finance the afghan govt against Taliban post withdrawal? where oes Iran stand on this? Russia?China has been unusally quiet

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

I'm asking something beyond syllabus. Please refer to the following link:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ajmer_rape_case

If the wives/daughters from IAS/IPS fell victims to these jihadi, what can common man expects from the country's law and order? Please throw some light upon it.

In India biased politics radicalize the minority muslims that they have the right to rape non-Muslims and kill the kafirs. You must have seen the recent news about paid conversion racket. Is India's social harmony doomed to fail due to fake secularism?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) I have no problem with the CDS expending excessive soundbytes, PROVIDED he taks sense. In this case, his soundbytes were not only downright nonsensical, but also highly insulting to the IAF. In addition, his IA background has now cast the IA in very bad light since his remarks smack of intellectual bankruptsy at the institutional-level. Anybofy with sound common-sense will realise that the first shots of a future round of conventional hostilities will be kicked off by cyber warfare, followed by the application of offensive airpower from the land, sea & air. Consequently, in order of priority, the lowest hanging fruits for the creation of new tri-services institutions are: Cyber Warfare Command, Joint Aerospace Command for joint analysis of aerial/overhead recce imagery, Special Forces Warfare Command, and Joint Logistics Command. The much hyped-about Air-Defence Command’s mandate should be limited to only BMD Defence & Air-defence of those installations that house the strategic arsenals, since in future even IN warships will be armed with BMD-specific SAMs like the XR-SAM equipped wth Ka-band active seekers. And focus must be on integrating the IA’s ADC & RS with the IAF’s IACCCS. Trying to achieve anymore is absolutely foolhardy & will tantamount to putting the cart before the horse, since functional theaterisation cannot take place until jointness is achieved in full measure across all spectrums of warfare. 2) It will all die down. Leave it to the French to take care of it, since the French media are blaming Dassault Aviation for malpractices, not any Indian or India-based entity or person (exactly like what happened in case of the AW-101 VVIP transportation helicopters). 3) Motor Sich’s engines will take a few more years to receive their certificates of airworthiness. 4) What’s the need to be more vocal when India does not even raise any voice for the plight of the natives of GB? 5) Not reqd, since Turkey is a NATO member-state & all other NATO member-states therefore have a fairly good knowledge on what’s transpiring inside Turkey. 6) China’s plans for obtaining a naval outpost in East Africa was well-known since 2011 itself when China had decided to link Hambantota to such outposts. Also, China has invested a lot in oil exploration in South Sudan & is thus eager transport the crude oil from South Sudan to a port facing the Indian Ocean. 7) NATO has no other choice.

To ASD: Anyone can succumb to blackmail, regardless of one’s religious affiliation. As for the so-called paid-conversion rackets, let’s reserve our judgements until one gets to hear the versions of those who have reportedly converted, just like the videos now being released by the Sikh women in J & K UT. bIn any case, I blame the non-Muslims, especially the Hindi-speaking ones, for making matters worse because they always use the term DHARAM PARIVARTAN whenever they refer to religious conversion. PARIVARTAN means improvement or graduating to a better state of affairs/condition. BADLAAV on the other hand is a more better translation to refer to change/conversion. Hence, those referring to conversions as PARIVARTAN are in effect contradicting themselves. Total NAALAYAKS & JAAHILS!!!

Sanjay said...

Mr. Prasun

1)When will the IA get it's first true attack helicopters as you mentioned it got approval for them in 2017 apart from Rudra gunships?

2)Will the Army get it's hands on the IAF Apaches?

3)Why didn't the IAF use its Apaches for shooting down the drones during the the attack on Jammu AFS or is it waiting for its LCH toys for that role(sarcastically)?

Thanks

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: Have uploaded above the concluding portion of the narrative under the sub-heading THE SEQUENTIAL WAY AHEAD.

Details of the briefing given yesterday to Pakistan's National Assembly by the PA's COAS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcp_UJ6H6QE&t=3s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFAzAmRQLys

DAshu said...

Sir, After going through this thread and your insistence on referring to the US approach.
I wonder with all these wargaming scenarios, practices, and experiences how come the US accepted its defeat in Afghanistan and running away like a scared dog. Paki was/is able to fox the mighty US for 20 long years without repercussions?

BTW don't you agree that IA was always intellectually bankrupt compared to IAF and IN just look at their eligibility criteria. This current CDS is no exception.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJAY: 1) India and US in February 2020 the contract for six AH-64E Apaches for the Indian Army, which follows a contract for 22 helicopters ordered by the Indian Air Force in 2015 & were delivered by March 2020. Deliveries for the IA will begin in 2023. 2) No. 3) The drones were in the air only for a few minutes, while the IAF’s Apaches are at Pathankot. Hence the fabric of space-n-time cannot be compressed for the Apaches to appear over Jammu. In any case, after the IAF installed searchlights at Jammu AFS, the drones stopped flying, meaning that their users are afraid of losing them to ground-fire & this also proves that such drones will be used again in future & hence they are being conserved by their end-users.

To DASHU: How can anyone claim that the US has accepted defeat in Afghanistan? The US has been there for the past 20 years & that’s long enough. The US withdrawal has been orderly & without facing any hostile fire. It is neither a rout nor a retreat. At the intellectual-level, yes, the IA has been found to be intellectually lacking for most of the time since independence. Hence the debacles in 1962, 1965 at Chammb & the long-drawn war of December 1971. In fact, back in April 1971 when the PA was still in the process of transferring by sea two infantry divisions from West Pakistan to East Pakistan & even China was undecided on what to do, two IA Mountain Divisions departing from Assam & Tripura could easily have marched without any credible opposition into Dhaka within 7 days, thereby saving everyone from a lot of misery & bringing the refugee exodus from East Pakistan into India to an early & speedy end. But all such bitter truths can only be revealed AFTER the archives of the MoD & MEA are declassified for public consumption, not until then!

And no matter who in Delhi wields the 'Danda' against the armed services chiefs, neither jointness nor combat theaterisation will be achievable in the absence of a scientific approach being adopted. The dictum of 'Jiska Paisa Uski Lathi Aur Usiki Bhais' (one who has the money wields the stick & also owns the cattle) does not apply to military reforms/transformation.

Meanwhile, watch this interview, especially the end-part where the Pakistani speaker can't finds words to express his ignorance about UNSC Rseolution No.47:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm9mrpia_j0&t=136s

Harsh said...

Can you present a comparison of el/m-2032 & el/m-2052 with APG-68(V)9

I mean present & future tejas radar vs Paki f-16 radar

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HARSH: Most of it is here:

http://trishulgroup.blogspot.com/2009/07/airborne-multi-mode-radar-data.html

Unknown said...

A strange psychology I find in some.people.and their ilk, they have the habit of blaming the victim of his or her own misery...just like blaming a.women for her clothes of getting raped..nihayati illogical aur jahil gandagi in such mindsets

Regards

Kunal

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KUNAL: Welcome to KALIYUG!

Unknown said...

Which idiot said we r in kaliyug? Are these chuitiyas of quint, wire etc

Regards

Kunal

andy said...

Since the inception of so called transfer of power the west ensured through whatever means that we are never able to build enough military capabilities to overcome their buffer state called pak, this state if demolished or overtaken or if pok is reclaimed and recaptured the century old game will be almost over.
So the only way was to weaken the offences and further weaken even the defences. The same was practised so well by the politics its politicians bureaucrats to the last man standing so we are never in any position to attack or defend.

Chinese were so worried and hence came the galwan and ladakh face off. Else we might have attacked and recaptured pok, so to redirect our focus towards dealing with galwan most of our hardware and energy is now focussed tgere rather on the west.

Examples of we never been able to reach optimum level is bofors, mmrca, submarine acquisition plan, assault rifles, BFJ, to name a few.

The good part is now we can focus more on the indigenous platfirms and upcoming models and varuants of tejas, omca, amca,tedbf and more.

Its also a way to tilt purchases towards the brits, especially for the ej200, and its uses in india.

This is surely another game by the vatican to make their agent's son relevant in the paid press.

aarpee said...

Prasun da
If a TNW is used by Pakistan in a war with India what will be our response?

Will the conventional fighting stop or continue?

How capable are our TNWs vis a vis Pak and China?

bhoutik said...

* https://alert5.com/2021/07/04/britain-to-help-japan-develop-engine-for-f-x-fighter/

surprised that japan requires help when IHI already has the XF9. please enlighten...

* chinavirus' type-003's clearer pics have emerged. do you plan on doing a thread regarding it and way forward for us?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KUNAL: Which one? This one, of course:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bbmd9ZWbbL8

One who cannot even develop & transform his own electoral constituency of Gorakhpur by constructing swanky CIQ facilities at the India-Nepal border trading post s now wants to transform the whole of UP!!! Can there be a greater moron than such a person???

To ANDY: LoLz! Why are you launching yourself into an orbital path around the whole world looking for entities to blame for India’s misfortune (Brits, the Vatican, etc etc)? Why such compulsive hostility against all others outside India? Don’t you think folks like the present-day CDS & his moronic utterances are more than enough for embarking upon a suicidal path? And what are all these ‘gaseous claims’ about ‘indigenous platforms’? Is it just enough to do CAD designing of such platforms & then have their scale-models made in Singapore & then showcase them at aerospace & military expos as indigenous platforms?

To AARPEE: That depends on where such TNWs will be used, i.e. within Pakistani territory or contested territory or within Indian territory. Had explained all such scenarios quite a few times in the past.

To BHOUTIK: Lots of folks are nowadays getting surprised even over elementary matters/issues. Didn’t I explain a month ago how hard it is to develop high-strength allows by using rare-earth materials? What’s the total technical service-life (TTSL) of the XF-9? Find that out & you will understand why Japan wants external technological assistance for developing new-generation turbofans. Regarding the Type-003 aircraft carrier, it is still premature to arrive at any exhaustive conclusions. The only confirmed data thus far is that the superstructure is bigger than the previous 2 aircraft carriers, that the Type-003 will be powered by gas-turbines, and that it will host the navalised variant of the FC-31 Gryfalcon M-MRCAs, and not the J-15 H-MRCAs.

And here's an interesting read:

https://amti.csis.org/changes-underway-at-cambodias-ream-naval-base/

And word from Moscow is that the Tikhomirov NIIP-developed NO-36 Byelka AESA-MMR developed for the Su-57/FGFA has completed its avionics-suite integration test-flights on a Su-30MK testbed & is now ready to be offered for the Super Su-30MKI upgrade project. This will enable the Super Su-30MKI to undertake multi-tasking interleaved operations (air-to-air & air-to-ground). The AESA-MMR will have three antennae--one facing forward & two facing portside & starboard-side, like this:

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OKQyCFUZLiA/V2MfETodZgI/AAAAAAAAK64/Y7BKnIiSsco2lSPMLoNqMe033dKppWoYwCLcB/s1600/5-Aperture%2BNO-36%2BByelka%2BAESA%2Barray%2Bof%2BFGFA.jpg

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-v22GQafB_ec/V2MgCJ32cLI/AAAAAAAAK7w/WPzk1yN_8twTIP1TbiIUVG-gjTWGBwBaACLcB/s1600/RLSU-30MK%2BNO-11M%2B%2527Bars%2527%2Bwith%2BAESA%2Bfront-end%2Barray.jpg

In addition, the THALES-SAMTEL HUD (to replace the existing ELBIT Type-967 HUD) will be able to display IR imagery of the frontal & side terrain acquired by the Litening-2 LDP, thereby giving the Super Su-30MKI LANTIRN-type capability of flying at low-levels in terrain avoidance mode in a totally passive manner--something that only the IAF's Rafales can achieve at the moment. Undoubtedly, this will give the IAF a transformative deep-strike capability both quantitatively & qualitatively, something which the air forces of both China & Pakistan presently lack.

But a word of caution: don't get over-excited so that your BP-levels don't hit the roof!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KUNAL: More 'Chutiyaas' coming forward to give clinching proof of 'Kaliyug':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QImlMtcVd-0&t=27s

While the 'Chutiya' from NDTV is claiming that all offset agreements are tainted with corruption, those from political parties & THE HINDU are claiming that since the French authorities have decided to re-launch investigations, therefore "daal mein zaroor kuch kaala toh hoha". But what if, just like the AW-101 court cases in Italy which once & for all proved that there were no corrupt practices involved with the Indian AW-101 contract, the French investigators too conclude that that the Indian Rafale contract too has been corruption-free? Then will all the 'native' nalaayak irreconcilables finally give it a rest? Or will they still continue beating their drums by claiming that in the 'Kaliyug' era, no contract can be corruption-free???

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

You made my day!!!! Sukhoi-30MKI getting very good upgrade. Hurrah!!!! And my BP level is still normal. Thanks again for the update.

just_curious said...

Prasun,
1- How does Tikhomirov NIIP-developed NO-36 Byelka AESA-MMR sync up with the indigenous proposal for super sukhoi in terms of compatibility, & will introduction of this radar necessitate engine upgrade which the russians have been pushing for? you mention the side looking radar as well . will those too be included in the super sukhoi upgrade?
2- whatever happened to the 3 already delivered AW 101? are they in use or just rotting away?
3- how does the IJT 36 fit into the IAF training along with hawks & SPORT.. my take is some hawks need to be converted into the combat hawk version & can be used in the mountainous areas as a subsonic aircraft with good maneuverability which will aid in following terrain

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- interesting article...pls share your views... https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/the-us-navy-is-shelving-its-dream-of-a-powerful-electromagnetic-railgun-to-develop-hypersonic-missiles-and-other-weapons/articleshow/84046700.cms#:~:text=The%20US%20Navy%20has%20decided,reported%2C%20citing%20a%20Navy%20spokesperson.&text=Avascent%20Group%20defense%20analyst%20Matthew,for%20the%20moment%2C%20dead.%22

Nikhil Vijayan said...

The joint and integrated operations can be achieved by scientific approach tested, reviewed and corrected by war games.
1. The individual services has to integrate different arms/platforms within the services to share ISR data with each other so that they see a common battlefield view.
2. Within the service identify the data link ingress and egress points within a given service so as to pint the data link interface points to be shared across services to form aa unified battlefield/theatre view across services.
3. Use the unified data link at war games and training to identify what can be improved in battle fighting by joint/integrated operations.
4. Based on those objective/outcomes decide till what level commanders has to be from individual services and at what level commanders have to be joint. War game and train the based on the same and review based on the analysis.

Vedant said...

What are your views about the Indian intelligence services, are they credible enough to be included in top 10 in the world (especially R&AW)

Do you think that our intelligence apparatus is better than the Chinese intelligence agencies in terms of HUMINT (excluding cyberint)

Also if you have any reference of the current status of our agencies, can you refer it in your answer.


just_curious said...

Prasun,

1 pls share your assesmenst for this--https://theprint.in/world/russia-unveils-new-security-strategy-that-aims-to-balance-ties-with-india-china/689692/

Unknown said...

What comes out of the investigation that time will tell..one thing i know for 100% is that those who preach high virtues themselves indulge in massive malpractices when given a chance

Regards kunal..

Santosh said...

Bro will IAF accept russian aesa radar in super sukhoi, I heard that India wants bigger UTTAM aesa radar for sukhoi
When will the super sukhoi upgradation starts
?

DAshu said...

Is this the groundwork for extending the extension?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTbBy9JjILw

CCP must have given some instruction it seems.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) The NO-36 ‘Byelka’ AESA-MMR being far more compact than the existing NO-11M ‘Bars’, also has a three-aperture-antenna that greatly increases the off-boresight target lock-on/tracking capability & on top of that is meant for guiding BVRAAMs equipped with Ka-band RF seekers that can easily be bought off-the-shelf from JSC Agat of Russia & be installed on-board the Astra BVRAAM family. In addition, the NO-36 consumes lesser internal volume, which enables the IAF to comfortably accommodate all the LRUs of the tactical data-link plus those for the MAWS. And since the entire DARE-developed avionics package for the Su-30MKI will be shipped to Russia for systems interfacing with the aircraft’s internal electrical wiring & databuses, no systems integration problems will be faced. The AL-41F turbofan, which delivers 20% more thrust than the existing AL-31FP, still does not offer the Su-30MKI a supercruise capability & hence it won’t be ordered & the money saved will instead be invested in procuring the NO-36 AESA-MMRs. 2) They continue to rot at Palam, Delhi. 3) Thus far, neither the HJT-36 IJT nor the tandem-seater LCA Sport LIFT have been ordered by the IAF & they continue to be projected by HAL purely as exportable items. 4) EMRGs are still less effective than supersonic/hypersonic standoff air-launched PGMs as per cost-benefit ratio & hence EMRGs for the moment are not the top-priority for the world’s major powers. 5) As I had stated before, Russia has a straightforward mercantile relationship with China & thus the two countries do not share any core values of national interest. With India on the other had, Russia shares several such values, for instance like making low-cost vaccines for COVID-19 & jointly exporting them worldwide at subsidised rates. Similarly, Russia & India share similar views WRT Iran, Afghanistan & Central Asia & about enrolling such countries into Russia’s Eurasian Customs Union. On top of all this, Russia has been investing in India’s hydrocarbons sector & wants to remain a viable player in this sector, just as it has a commanding lead over others in India’s nuclear power generation sector. Hence, a recalibration of Russia’s foreign policy objectives was long overdue since 2014.

To UNKNOWN: Sound common-sense dictates that financially rich countries possess superior intelligence agencies since such countries can invest healthy financial sums both in TECHINT & HUMINT. For instance, unlike the major powers, India does not even possess an ELINT/SIGINT naval vessel.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANTOSH: Why are you asking this when I had already stated yesterday that the NO-36 AESA-MMR had been selected for the Super Su-30MKI? UTTAM AESA-MMR is only a laboratory-level product & has yet to be optimally engineered & it possesses only 1 antenna, compared to 3 on the NO-36. That’s why the IAF has shown interest only in installing UTTAM on the MiG-29UPGs sometime by the end of this decade for replacing the existing Phazotron Zhuk-M2Es, meaning the IAF does not expect the DRDO to offer a fully-developed UTTAM before 20228. Super Su-30MKI upgrade work has already begun and full systems integration activities will soon get underway in Russia.

To DASHU: LoLz! Why is everyone expressing surprise when I had already stated last February itself that the ceasefire is only along the LoC & not along the WB, due to which all cross-border UAV activities have since last September picked up steam. For Pakistan to engage in such activities was an expected & logical move, especially after India suspended 4-G cellular services inside J & K UT since August 4, 2019 & hence it became imperative for Pakistani Jihadis to infiltrate into J & K via the riverine terrain of northern Punjab & for Kashmiri terrorists to travel down to northern Punjab from where they could access 4-G networks & WhatsApp without any restrictions & easily communicate with their Pakistani masters. That India’s secuirity establishment failed to stop such activities speaks volumes about the ineptitude of India’s national security establishment. So, until the elections inside ‘Azad Kashmir’ are concluded later this month, all such ‘Tamaashas’ will continue, rest assured.

Rafale Debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8bqhVh3ABk

Theaterisation Debates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIgNBvfREMg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P20f8oPo6tI

Pakistani Debates on Afghanistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdsFxDtPh-M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrdoVAzhv-Y

And yesterday's press-conference WRT R & AW-Bashing in Islamabad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86-wVRjxJsc

The reason why Pakistan continues to blame India for all terror attacks taking place inside Pakistan is that Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security (NDS) is almost entirely financed by India & this has been the case since 2002. While everyone knows that India financed the construction of Afghanistan Parliament building, what is not well-known is that the NDS HQ's construction too was wholly financed by India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Q): Is it true Pakistan is having trouble with its 9 Batteries of China-supplied SAMs?

Answer): Yes, that is, the FM-90 SHORADS & LY-80E MR-SAMs, due to shortage of spares because Beijing is according priority to product-support by its OEMs to the PLAGF's own stockpiles of FM-90 & LY-80 SAM Regiments due to their high utilisation rates throughout China since the early part of last year. Hence, the spares originally meant for export customers are getting delayed for delivery.

To ASD: How the BRO is Upgrading Sikkim's Bridges to MLC-70 Standard:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pV3VWnVCheg

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

dada

What would happen to existing BARS post the up gradation can they be used for providing some low level cover in north west / north east ...? can they be used along with some gun systems to provide low level cover or can they be used for Jamming ?

Mohan said...

prasun sir,

"In addition, the THALES-SAMTEL HUD (to replace the existing ELBIT Type-967 HUD) will be able to display IR imagery of the frontal & side terrain acquired by the Litening-2 LDP, thereby giving the Super Su-30MKI LANTIRN-type capability of flying at low-levels in terrain avoidance mode in a totally passive manner"
1.is this HUD a holographic HUD like in rafale?
2.how is this different from earlier HUD?
sorry if i sound folish to ask this question but is night vision display similar to this new HUD?
regards

Harsh said...

sir, saw recent pics of Vishakhapatnam

really frustrating... what happened to the 2 major upgrades over the kolkata class?

The same obsolete Thales LW-08 radar & 76mm pichkari

it is already 2 yrs behind schedule... still the upgrades are missing.

& truly speaking... none of our so called stealth destroyers/frigates look like stealth... no refinement

Rajesh Mishra said...

What and how much losses India will have to incur if the inimical Taliban completely overtakes the Afghanistan ?? Kindly reply.

bhoutik said...

*did Indian companies and firms design & construct the afghan NDS HQ?

*turkey securing the kabul airport. do u c problems for india given that they r the new found daddies of pakis?

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

1. 2 #superpowers downed in mere 40 yrs, thats a mind-boggling #success rate for anyone to envy Afghans

2. India is getting kicked in Afghanistan by Taliban, salma dam attacked

3. cant get satisfactory answer why torpedo warhead is always circular instead of conical

4. Muqtda al sadr is rising from ashes in South Iraq it will give Iran huge leeway in Shia dominated south iraq

5. will the recent order to declassify war records help in creating simulator modelling that may help us select optimal response in future

6. will India sell LCH/Rudra to Nigeria

7. lot is being said/read abt PM phoning His Holiness Dalai Lama, storm in teacup?

8. biggest doubt in Rafale deal comes from compposition of the DRAL company, Dassault wll pitch in 94% capital but own only 49% and Anil Ambani's RADAG that has 0 exp. in aircraft MRO let alone manufacturing will bring 6% capital, anyone with common sense will say there is something fishy, tell me why not?? i haven't seen a company composition like this ever

9. CDS comment was harakiri for there command but when Andaman has theatre coman why not follow same rule elsewhere

your view

Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) I can’t fathom what makes you ASSUME that the US was downed by the Afghans. If you read the UNSC resolutions & US congressional resolutions, the US went to Afghanistan to eliminate Al Qaeda. No one had ever claimed that the US had declared war on the Afghan Taliban. 2) The Afghan National Army is more than capable of taking on the Afghan Taliban, rest assured. 3) Because you were not paying attention during your physics classes during your school-going days. Torpedoes are not required to have penetrating warheads & hence are not meant to be like HEAT warhead designs. Instead, they function like conventional blast-fragmentation bombs for rupturing the warships’s superstructure. 5) Yes, but PROVIDED India fully embraces simulation technologies. 6) Let them first be sold to India’s armed forces as fully weaponised machines. 7) Do read this:

https://theprint.in/diplomacy/modi-wishes-dalai-lama-publicly-on-birthday-1st-time-since-2015-amid-india-china-standoff/690662/

8) You are forgetting that DRAL is built on land supplied by Reliance. Cost of land is also part of one partner’s financial investment. In addition, DRAL is not into MRO at all. Instead, it is manufacturing structural components for the Dassault Falcon family of business jets, and is also the owner of the bonded warehouses that stockpile spares for the Rafale as per the performance-based logistics package ordered by the IAF. 9) It is not about Commands, but theaterisation, i.e. each theatre commander will be responsible for fighting battles in distinct theatres. What folks are not understanding is that theaterisation already exists, but in 3 individual silos. That’s why the IA’s Southern Command is not co-located with the IAF’s Southern Air Command & the IN’s Southern Command. Consequently, to bring together 3 geographical commands under a single unified geographical command will not be easy, but will not be impossible either. As I have explained above, it was the IA in late 1962 that let go of the chance to put the geographical command HQs of the IA & IAF under a single roof.

But the biggest mistake was done by the IAF throughout the 1990s, i.e. while on one hand all ex-IAF veterans on TV nowadays are tirelessly emphasizing the omnidirectional & indivisible aspects of airpower, they conveniently forget that they are in essence contradicting themselves by trying to defend the existing geographical theatre command structure. The IAF would have been right to insist on the indivisibility of airpower had it, in the 1990s itself re-organised itself by doing away with geographical commands & adopting the concept of functional commands, i.e. Air Combat Command, Air Transportation Command, Air Maintenance Command & Air Training Command, i.e. exactly what the US & Russia did. It is this that often leads me to conclude that sound common-sense & logical reasoning are very rarely resorted so by the overwhelming majority of Indian citizens. And that’s also why the onset the 3rd wave of COVID-19 in India is inevitable sometime during Deepavali.

To DASHU: Analysis of forthcoming July 25 elections inside PoK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqSfyapX4B4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akrR2epFHcM

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: The NO-11M ‘Bars’ is a PESA X-band fire-control radar of 1990s vintage & by 2020 it had been superseded by AESA-MMR technology. X-band radars can’t be used for airspace surveillance & they are also quite bulky. Hence, they can’t be used along with AAA.

To: MOHAN: 1) It will be a wide-angle (not holographic) HUD, like this one:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cuBPKj0THq8/Wwcokf1drHI/AAAAAAAAO_Q/DtRzfaqTb580i_cu3b5qBvHvjTlW5cQKwCLcBGAs/s1600/SAMTEL-THALES%2BHUDWAC.jpg

To HARSH: Both P-15B DDG & P-17A FFG will have INDRA of Spain-supplied LTR-25 radars, as shown here:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEqlw2mWsAEWJsu.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-g7dqp3rmroo/XVHTGJxqXXI/AAAAAAAARkE/Vn4gwcTcFckoGh50OGMl9pGxFQyTqfJ1gCLcBGAs/s1600/Indra%2527s%2BLTR-25%2BL-band%2Bradar.jpg

If you saw any P-15 DDG with LW-08 radar, then it must have been either P-15 or P-15A DDG.

To RAJESH: Virtually none, as explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrdoVAzhv-Y

To BHOUTIK: 1) Yes. 2) Turkey will soon realise that the Afghans consider the Muslim Turks as foreigners too.

And here's an interesting read:

https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/xia_chinausrelations_web-ready.pdf

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

where else can we use BARS now , any other idea for them to be used ?

Vin said...

Hi Prasun

Will the 12 Su-30 MKI which are being bought be of the upgraded version
Is any upgrade to the frame to reduce the RCS possible ?

Also how many aircraft will be upgraded each year once the upgrade specs are finalised.
Hope its not in the same snail pace of the production line

just_curious said...

prasun,
1- Iran playing host to afghan sides for whatz at play here where did this come from from Qatar to turkey .. now Iran out of no where. Jaishankar to visit Iran & Moscow.. whats happening?

Harsh said...

sir, look at the new bridge design... its ins Vishakhapatnam with lw-08

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/IndianDefense/comments/njy2s6/ins_visakhapatnam/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: They can in future be used at only 2 places as EXHIBITS: 1) IAF Museum in Delhi. 2) HAL Museum in Bengaluru.

To VIN: Yes, they will from the outset be Super Su-30MKIs.

To JUST_CURIOUS: Neither Qatar nor Turkey nor Pakistan ever held the trump-cards for prevailing in Afghanistan. It was always Iran because of 2 principal reasons: 1) Iran's geographic contiguity with Afghanistan. 2) Iran's overwhelming cultural & linguistic influence over Afghanistan. And now we can add another one: 3) Iran serving as Afghanistan's economic lifeline, thanks to Chabahar Port. And this is where India's importance rises in the eyes of the Afghan Taliban & hence Iran's new President went out of his way to give an audience to the visiting Indian Foreign Minister. The Afghan Taliban knows only too well that Pakistan will in future try to blackmail the Afghan Taliban for the sake of making the Durand Line permanent & legally binding by threatening to close down the border trading posts at Chaman & Torkham for indefinite periods. This handicap can be overcome only if Iran provides uninterruptible access to Indian foodgrains supplies through Chabahar Port. Thus, it emerges, that while both Afghanistan & Iran require India for maintaining regional socio-economic stability, India in turn requires Iran for the sake of maintaining its influence over Afghanistan. And in the Biden Administration era, India will use all this for facilitating the resumption of Iranian crude oil supplies to India & in return Iran will greatly increase its imports of Indian primary commodities for both domestic consumption & for export to Syria, another one of India's longstanding friends.

Naturally all this has caused great anguish inside Pakistan & hence the recent paranoiac outbursts from Pakistan's delirious Foreign Minister & from IAKN.

Anonymous said...

Sirji,

1.) PM is likely to meet Dalai Lama soon in Delhi, looks like process of choosing a succesor is in full swing. How do you think it will play out ?

2.) I remember you talk about short duration but high intensity border wars with our neighbours, and that it is highly unlikely India will fight a full blown war in near future. So should theatre commands be modeled especially to deal with these threats ? Would iaf not be limited to just supporting army offensive in such roles ? Should army should mainly focus on mechanization of its force ?

-Bhvk

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BHVK: 1) This explains it all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNF0-2uL6go 2) yes to all.

Return of the Taliban: What next for Afghanistan? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CzwGMmk264

To ASD: Why The Endemic Police Corruption: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nbPDLiYC9U&t=7s

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

A research team in China has unveiled an underwater drone that can recognise, follow and attack an enemy submarine without human instruction. The secret project, funded by the military, was partially declassified last week with the publication of a paper that gave a rare glimpse into a field test of the unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), seemingly in the Taiwan Strait, more than a decade ago. It is unclear why China has now declassified details of the test, but the tension over the Taiwan Strait has recently escalated to its highest point in decades. Countries such as the United States and Japan have raised the possibility of military intervention if Beijing, which views Taiwan as part of its territory, tries to take the island by force. These robotic drones are now working mostly individually, but with technological upgrades could patrol in packs, according to Professor Liang Guolong and colleagues from Harbin Engineering University, China’s top submarine research institute. A variant of the sub could be planted on sea floors and activated in the event of a clash or war. “The needs of future underwater warfare bring new development opportunities for unmanned platforms,” the researchers said in their paper, published in the Journal of Harbin Engineering University last Friday. Most submarines have computers to help identify or track targets, but sonar operators still need to use their eyes and ears to make judgments on important issues such as identifying friendly vessels, with final decisions taken by the Captain. The external environment’s complexity means humans normally “need to fine-tune the sonar from time to time to improve the results of searching and tracking”, Liang wrote. On the unmanned submarine, “all the subsystems such as information acquisition, target detection, assessment, status and parameter control must have completely independent decision-making capabilities”, rendering some traditional submarine technology “useless to an unmanned platform”, he said in the paper.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Although the researchers did not give a precise location, partial coordinates from a map in their paper suggested that they dropped an unmanned submarine off the coast of the eastern province of Fujian, in or near the Taiwan Strait. The drone was programmed to patrol about 10 metres below the surface following a predetermined route. At another location, the researchers deployed a mock craft that could replicate the noise of a submarine, and the drone switched to combat mode as soon as its sonars picked up the signal from distance. It circled in a hexagonal pattern and pointed its sonar arrays to various sources of sound, while artificial intelligence tried to filter out ambient noise and determine the nature of the target, according to the researchers. One torpedo fired by the drone hit the simulated submarine. For safety reasons, the torpedo was not loaded. That test, conducted in 2010, was China’s first attempt to simulate the tracking and sinking of a submarine “with the complete absence of humans in an open environment”, Liang and colleagues wrote in the paper. Unmanned submarines could make mistakes, and their communication with human commanders could be interrupted by enemies. Whether a robotic killer should be let loose to hunt and kill humans remains an ethical question. Nonetheless, the US military has asked Boeing to build four extra-large Orca UUVs, and Russia recently deployed a new submarine that can launch a nuclear-powered drone with enough firepower to wipe out cities. Israel and Singapore, among others, have tested or deployed similar machines in the oceans, according to Liang. China’s unmanned submarine project started in the early 1990s, long before AI became a buzzword. Although there is no recorded use of them in a real battle, China’s unmanned subs have since evolved, incorporating improvements in sonar technology, AI and communications to allow them to coordinate their movements as a fleet and launch attacks on the same target from different positions simultaneously, Liang wrote, adding that with a new-generation power supply, they could hide for long periods to ambush enemies. The drone is part of a wider effort by China to challenge other nations’ dominance in the world’s oceans with disruptive AI technology. Chinese unmanned platforms deployed or under construction include surface vessels, long-distance gliders that can cross an ocean to gather information, a research station on the deep sea floor of the South China Sea, and a UFO-like drone that can both fly and cruise under water.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PINKAL SHAH: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yH04klzrumc&t=87s

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jun/25/massive-human-head-in-chinese-well-forces-scientists-to-rethink-evolution

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: Profiles of Japanese & US semiconductor manufacturers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FK_wV3x9WY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSNhk4TflKA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErRzxyp0VQQ

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The Xi speech
July 8, 2021: As the Royal Navy’s new Carrier Strike Group passed through the Suez Canal and ‘Global Britain’ once again headed East of Suez the Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga issued a stark warning to President Xi of China: Japan will regard any attack on the Republic of China (Taiwan) as an “existential threat”. This Analysis addresses three questions. Is a Chinese military attack on Taiwan imminent? What are the forces driving Chinese nationalism? What are the constraints on China? In his speech of July 1 to mark 100 years since the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and speaking from atop the totemic Tiananmen Gate, President Xi Jinping was uncompromising. He said that the “blood and flesh” of 1.4 billion Chinese citizens would repel at attempt by the West to “bully, oppress or enslave us” and that “bloodied heads” would be the result of any interference in Chinese affairs. He also said that the re-unification of Taiwan with the Mainland was “…an historic task to which the party is firmly committed and it is a common wish of the Chinese people to resolve the Taiwan issue and achieve the total reunification of the motherland”. Ominously, he went further, “We [China] will have a world class army so that we can safeguard state sovereignty, security and development interests with greater abilities and more reliable methods”.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Is a military attack on Taiwan imminent?
No, but the threat posed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to Taiwan cannot be discounted. In spite of the impressive progress in modernising China’s 2.7 million strong active service force a joint air-maritime-amphibious assault on such a scale would be an immense risk for Beijing. First, Taiwan’s forces, the Chinese National Armed Forces (CNAF), have 290,000 active service personnel which is reinforced by 1.65 million reserves. Second, the CNAF are reinforced by 30,000 US personnel, including a sizeable contingent of Special Operating Forces or SOF.

Third, the shortest crossing between mainland China and Taiwan is 110km, or almost 70 miles. Hitler baulked at the prospect of risking three army groups crossing the English Channel in 1940 against a British force that had just been effectively defeated at Dunkirk. The Luftwaffe could not guarantee control of the air space and the Kriegsmarine had no chance of controlling the sea space against the Royal Navy, even though the distance was only 34km or 21 miles. Moreover, China could only ever use a fraction of its force for an assault on Taiwan across what would be a heavily contested space. To reduce the risk for such an operation China has illegally militarised a series of reefs and islands around the perimeter of the South China Sea to effectively lock the US and its allies out in the event of a Chinese attack. This is the reason quite a few Western powers regularly conduct freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea to deny Beijing any de facto, let alone de jure control over a vital strategic sea space.

Fourth, the Chinese have never before conducted such operations on anything like the scale required. Yes, they have conducted some impressive show-piece maritime amphibious exercises. However, China lacks both blue and brown water experience and there is a world of difference between exercises and operations. For China to undertake a D-Day plus operation without any prior experience would be an enormous military gamble in which defeat would have the most profound of political and strategic consequences. All military operations go wrong but large air-maritime-amphibious operations normally take place in a ‘sea of wrong’ because there are so many moving parts. In the midst of such chaos it is usually experienced operational commanders who make the difference.

Therefore, in spite of the bombast of Xi’s speech Beijing would much prefer to gradually influence Taiwan from within and create the conditions for an eventual, and relatively peaceful re-integration of Taiwan with Mainland China. Much of the effort will involve subversion of the political class, reinforced by implacable opposition to any attempts by Taipei to achieve full independence, and the use of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to exert strategic coercion.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

What are the forces driving Chinese nationalism?
There is a tendency, particularly among Europeans, to consider the strategic options open to the likes of Putin and Xi through their own geopolitical myopia. There are two forces that reinforce the need for prudence and which could lead to a military confrontation between China and the US far sooner than many anticipate: Han Chinese nationalism and the paranoia of the CCP. It is the heady mix of Han Chinese nationalism and CCP paranoia, allied to the growing influence of the armed forces and their state enterprises that could in certain circumstances create the ‘perfect’ conditions for military adventurism, particularly if the Xi faced losing power at home. Nationalism is a powerful driver of policy. The Han Chinese represent some 91% of China’s population. As the ideological fervour of the Mao years receded, and particularly since Xi took power in 2012, the main source of Beijing’s power has become suppressed Han Chinese nationalism. The result is what might be described as a ‘chip on the shoulder, this is our moment’ attitude to foreigners, particularly Westerners (Gweilo), the Japanese and the wider world. This is hardly surprising. From the so-called Unequal Treaties with the British in the wake of the Opium Wars of the 1840s to the Rape of Nanking in the 1930s, and the brutal Japanese occupation between 1941 and 1945, the Middle Kingdom with its ancient civilisation has been treated as little more than a chattel to be shared around between conquerors. In spite of the appearance of total power of the CCP, which Xi’s speech tried to reinforce, the ‘Party’ remains eternally paranoid about the threat from enemies both within and without China. It is such paranoia why Beijing broke the ‘one country, two systems’ model and the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration in which Beijing agreed to permit Hong Kong to maintain its distinct political institutions for 50 years following Britain’s 1997 withdrawal. What makes the CCP particularly worried is a fear that Hong Kong’s protesters might trigger a repeat of the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. These were not simply a consequence of the pro-democracy movement. They were also caused by a combination of inflation, economic reform, political corruption and nepotism, all of which are apparent in China today. In the wake of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre the CCP established a form of post-Tiananmen contract as part of the social economic reforms of the Deng Xiaoping era. Put simply, the CCP created the conditions for growing prosperity so long as the newly-rich and the burgeoning middle class did not threaten the absolute control of the Party. The sine qua non of the policy became the need to maintain economic growth and rural development at almost any cost for fear that if China stalled so would the CCP.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

What are the constraints on China?
The first constraint is President Xi’s own world-view. Xi is a ‘Princeling of the Party’, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission and Paramount Leader. He also had a tough upbringing. In an interview he gave in 2000 he said, "People who have little contact with power, who are far from it, always see these things as mysterious and novel. But what I see is not just the superficial things: the power, the flowers, the glory, the applause. I see the bull-pens and how people can blow hot and cold. I understand politics on a deeper level." His reference to ‘bull-pens’ reflects his experience as a young man during the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s when his father, a high ranking official, was denounced as a counter-revolutionary and thrown into prison. At the age of fifteen, after a life of relative ease Xi was also sent to work in the countryside where he learnt how to survive and also began to learn how to ‘play’ the often brutal internal politics of the CCP. Xi is also a Chinese patriot schooled in the immense history of the Middle Kingdom with all the associated frustrations that many Chinese feel about the lack of respect afforded China by the West and others over the centuries. He means what he says that China will repel any attempt to “bully, oppress or enslave us” and his need for absolute control over the Party, the country and much of the world around him makes Xi’s China a potentially dangerous power that can trust nothing or no-one. That lack of trust also extends to Putin’s Russia, a relationship which Xi is perfectly happy to instrumentalise if its helps his China secure its interests.

However, perhaps the greatest constraint on China is Xi himself and his demand for absolute conformity. China boomed when Deng Xiaoping managed for a time to strike a delicate balance between the centralised control of Beijing and the Party, on one side, and the entrepreneurial power of Hong Kong and Shanghai, on the other. The latter drove the export led boom but also led to a very Chinese form of pluralism which played its part in the 1989 revolt. The momentum from that boom is still apparent in China’s many amazing achievements over the past thirty years. However, Chinese entrepreneurship is slowly being strangled by the imposition of Xi’s renewed statist culture that over time could well erode China’s economic dynamism. In the wake of the pandemic the Asian democracies and the West, the main source of China’s economic power surge, are also increasingly wary of Xi’s Beijing. Rather than move to ease such concerns Xi has taken the opposite course of action and become increasingly belligerent and aggressive. This suggests that Xi is incapable of striking that balance between some personal liberty and economic activity that unleashed China’s long suppressed potential.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Does China pose a threat?
All of the above leads to a final question: does China pose a threat to the region and the world? It could. Xi’s power-base is the People’s Liberation Army, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and he ensures that they are at the core of his very concept of China the Mighty. The PLA is thus being equipped and modernised at a quite remarkable pace shifting the global balance of military power with huge implications for the Americans and NATO that most Europeans seem quite incapable of grasping. Much of the PLA’s leadership like Xi also have a world-view that encapsulates much that is modern China: a potent mix of Han Chinese nationalism, Party orthodoxy, and a world-view born of a sense of centuries of disrespect, injury and humiliation at the hands of powerful foreigners. It is also a perfect recipe for political miscalculation, particularly if the domestic situation of the CCP worsens. This essentially zero-sum world view in which Xi and the Party can only survive if they control all opponents and enemies both foreign and domestic driving Xi’s ambition for China to become the dominant world power by 2049, a century after the founding of Communist China. Indeed, Xi’s speech marking the centenary of the CCP was a road marker on the route to such power. Such an uber-competitive world view also means that for Xi China the true test of power will be the eclipse of the US and the kow-towing of Europe and by whatever means necessary. It is for that reason that Western powers are daily under industrial level of cyber-attack and espionage and why Beijing routinely flouts rules over intellectual property theft. All that matters is the search for critical comparative advantage at a time and place of Beijing’s choosing.

Is it possible to deal with China? Yes, if Beijing is accorded the respect its power and status deserve. However, each and every breach of a treaty and every abuse of enormous power must be responded to. China also invented what the West today calls statecraft and tradecraft and unlike such regimes in the past, and for all the forces acting on Xi, there is also a sophistication which creates the possibility for mutual interest to be engineered, but if one presumes war with China the Chinese will one day oblige. Before that happens all and every opportunity must be explored for relatively peaceful co-existence, even if intense strategic competition between China and the Global Democracies is inevitable. In other words, when dealing with a China that is steadily moving from authoritarian to totalitarian the West and its leaders must be respectful and pragmatic, but also clear-eyed and look well beyond Chinese money. Belt and chains? And, always carry a very big stick!

Raj Gupta said...

Mr. Prasun

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JNF0-2uL6go

Do you think the Karmapa Lama is a spy?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJ GUPTA: That's not the correct question. The correct questions are four-fold: Is he a spy? If so, then for which country was he spying? And if he was spying while residing in India, then which Govt of India entity allowed him to leave India & why? Or was he exfiltrated out of India without India's knowledge? He currently resides in a suburb of New York & has shown his disinclination to return back to India--facts which the 'desi patrakaars' are ignorant of.

Anonymous said...

There is a lot discussion on IAF squadron strength, MMRCA 2 (or 3) and probable delay in Tejas Mk2.

The single biggest retirement in IAF were 160+ MiG-27 and 65+ MiG-23BN, both ground attack & support aircraft.
IAF has no dedicated ground support aircraft nor has plans to acquire.
So does it not make sense to actually ramp up 165+65 LCH quickly ?
How far is DRDO from the 12-15km range helicopter launched anti tank missile ?


Regards
Venky

john said...

Prasunda

We are developing swam drone attack system. Isn't it Afganistan the ideal place to test it out. We achieve two objects. 1. Testing it in real war like condition. 2. Supporting afghan govt.

Phinergy and log9 are coming out with Aluminium air batteries and IOC is planning Al-Air battery production. How long we have to wait for it?.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VENKY: LoLz! I had already stated two years ago that there are no available financial resources for the MRFA requirement. On top of that, development of the MWF will involve 2,000 flight-hours of tests that cannot be compressed to a 3-year period with just 2 LSP-series prototypes. Yet, the cabal of ‘desi’ & PIO internet fanboys had since 2013 been claiming that Tejas Mk.2 will be available by 2019. These delusional entities still continue to spin off whims & fancies that are total contradictions of the laws of physics & mathematics. Now, adding to the confusion are tweets like this:

https://twitter.com/arunp2810/status/1412749322215596035

Now, what needs to be understood is that bombers like Tu-22M3 without terrain-following radars will easily be shot down by LR-SAMs like S-200PMU1/2, S-400, Barak-8ER & FD-2000/HQ-9. Yes, such legacy-design swing-wing aircraft, unlike the Tu-160 & B-1B, do not possess any radars for terrain avoidance & we all witnessed how such platforms were used by Russia in Syria against ISIS & not against any adversary possessing advanced air-defence artillery assets. Thus, it seems that retired Admirals either possess limited knowledge about such affairs, or they are merely spreading disinformation. This should not be surprising at all, since one retired Vice Admiral who frequently appears on NEWS-X TV channel yesterday e-mailed me to say this: “While your inputs on China and US are very informative, may I request that discussing or posting pictures of Project Varsha should be avoided. Considering the ability of cyber warriors world over it may not be very wise on our part.” So, this being the case, one should not at all be surprised by the CDS Gen Bipin Rawat claiming that the IAF is only a supporting combat arm!!!

Then we have mid-level veterans coming up with bullshit like this:

https://twitter.com/joe_sameer/status/1412718180703686665

The IAF does have tactical interdiction platforms, this being the Jaguar IS armed with sensor-fused munitions. Such platforms will be armed with powered (not gliding) PGMs for knocking off static installations like the SAM sites of China. The Rafales too come armed with such PGMs, like the Scalp ALCM. The Rudra & LCH & AH-64Es armed with ATGMs are meant for attacking mobile targets like advancing armoured/mechanised formations. But to do so, they need twin-engined airborne battlefield surveillance helicopters & single-engined armed aeroscout helicopters for tactical recce/target detection. Only if such a package is available can a force of 200 helicopters (comprising of all types) deliver the equivalent of an Armoured Division’s firepower, like the French Army’s Army Aviation Corps (ALAT) delivered against Iraq’s Republican Guards Divisions in February 1991.

The IAF does not require LCHs for shooting down UAVs. Even a single-engined LUH can be armed with Mistral ATAMs for shooting down UAVs. The IAF therefore needs to surrender its LCH orders to the IA’s Aviation Corps. The SANT missile, using W-band MMW seeker, is still another 6 years away from service-induction. Hence, the HELINA needs to be qualified for use by the IA’s Rudra helicopter-gunships & LCHs ASAP & it is these helicopters that should be primarily responsible for delivering immediate air-support for the contact battles within the tactical battle areas.

To ANUP: Yes, it indeed is. But these aren’t:

https://twitter.com/drajaykumar_ias/status/1411955284055007235/photo/1

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/bdl-signs-rs-499-crore-deal-with-indian-air-force-for-akash-missiles/articleshow/84264020.cms

Sanjeev said...

Regarding the akaash order for bdl, are these two new squadrons apart from the 7+8 already contracted for?

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- is India begging russia for help to rein in taliban when Jaisshankar talks about "legitimacy" of the future ruler of afghanistan..
2-taliban in Gilgit baltistan..
https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/news/pakistan-taliban-nexus-exposed-talibans-commander-spotted-in-gilgit-latest-news-cnn-news18/vi-AALZFSN
Taliban wwoing china --https://www.rediff.com/news/report/taliban-calls-china-as-a-friend-welcomes-investment/20210710.htm
3- IAF & IA puhsing for minimum amt of K225T to be bought off the shelf

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

Very nice analysis ... thank you

just_curious said...

Prasun,

4- Brit Type 45 is being upgraded with additional 24 VLSRAM to existing 48 missiles carrying capability because of additional space on the ship.. anything similar could be done on older indian destroyers/corvettes(eg Delhi class) ..
5 - Greeks announcing a trilateral with India & UAE. Greeks also wanting a deeper defence ties with india
6- why did jaishankar land up in Georgia. any well thought move?
7 who is funding the taliban surge ? Qatar or China?
8 What did US gain for spending a trillion dollars in afghanistan. what is so special abt pakis that US let its forces be killed but never pushed pakis? ditto on Qatar for its militant tendencies and being lenient with erdogan?
9- what did Jaishankar mean by mentioning Russia as a euro-pacific power. Any gains by the this vist to Moscow & Tehran?

Raj Gupta said...

So does that mean he spied for the Americans and some in the Indian establishment helped him to go to US?

Raj Gupta

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun

1. Why do you think that the current afghan forces will prevail over the taliban? i am not questioning your judgment but i dont see them getting out of this . i feel someone has to support them with air assets and ground forces (battle hardened ) like iran and russia did for syria? They really did turn the war in syria.

2.Can afghans afford a mercenary army or PMC at their current level? i ask this because many african countries did this before in the 90s for payment through use of their assets ? Will the turks step in as in libya? I don't know it looks like a age of appeasement before WWII.Each one carving their area of influence.

Regards
Remo

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJEEV: Yes.

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) No, he was there for finalising weapons procurement packages meant for distribution within Afghanistan for various Afghan security services. 4) Only vertically-launched SR-SAMs can be considered for ‘drop-in’ installation. 5) Greece can end up buying from India some of the PGMs like SAAW for their Rafales & Mirage-2000s. 6) Georgia has several weapons production plants that can offer cheap deals meant for supply to Afghanistan. 7) Pakistan. That’s why no one is attacking the Customs posts at Torkham & Chaman. Only those Customes checkposts connecting Afghanistan to Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan & Iran are being targeting for the sake of disrupting food supplies from these countries to Afghanistan. 8) Because the US needed both Qatar & Pakistan for ensuring access into Afghanistan through air corridors passing over Pakistan. Had India ensured in 1999 that there was geographic contiguity between India & Affhanistan via the Wakhan Corridor, then there would have been much better days today. 9) He meant EURASIAN power as I had explained several times in the past & India & Russia have decided to establish the Vladivostok-to-Chennai Maritime Corridor.

To RAJ GUPTA: It is obvious, isn’t it? BTW, there are 2 competing Karmapas & here are their respective websites:

https://kagyuoffice.org/

https://www.karmapa.org/

To REMO: 1) Simply because the Afghan national security forces far outnumber their Afghan Taliban counterparts. The only thing they lack are access to weapons & financial support. The Afghan Army not only needs additional helicopter-gunships like Mi-25s, but also money for ensuring their spares support in order to ensure high serviceability rates. 2) There are already several of them inside Afghanistan that take care of their respective communities, like the militias of the Uzbeks, Hazaras & Tajiks.

Yasen-M SSGN: Hunter of the Deep: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCLH3rzO06U

Untold Tale of 1971 War: BHUJ: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUq9yvcfrk

New WTC GOC-in-C of PLA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz6m5gtlxQI

Bagram Air Base Tour: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0u6kqWJ32I

Raghu said...

Hi,

The 2nd part of the Yasen-M submarine Kazan is now streaming on Combat Approved

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vOl5MD9qNXk&t=396s

That's quite a vessel, a generation beyond the Akula class subs which India took on lease

Regards,

Raghu

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

If the checkpoints at Iran are being targetted and taken over by the Taliban, how will India manage to get food and other items into Afghanistan. If the border access points are choked off, it would be difficult to deliver arms and ammunition purchased from Russia, Georgia or any other country to the Afghan armed forces.

Your views on this please.

Raghu

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da small mistake by you in reply to RAJ GUPTA

1. their is now only 1 Karmapa lama. The one who reigned from Eumtek monastery has given up sainthood and celibacy and married a tibetan girl and that is 2017 news btw how can a chap just out of teenage spy for a 3rd country on the country that has given him refuge.

2. Karmapa lama doesn't want to come back bcoz of mistrust by indian government who thought something fishy but in that if money found was questionable then HH Dalai Lama too needs to be suspected since he gwts lot of cash too. And you have opined that HHDL may be deep asset dor China who allowed him to escape and setup base. Already many tibetan have been picked up in dharamshala for spying for china. Who knows they were working on orders of HHDL.

3. Both india and tibet/ tibetans need Karmapa simply because bc
a. HHDL himself has said that eifher after him the Dalai Lama institution eill cease to exist as per prophecy 14th Dalai Lama is last or someone will be born outside tibet and that will be a girl obviously she will not be given same respect as Dalai or Karmapa who are men.

b. After Dalai Lama only Karmapa Lama institution is left to taking forwards the tradition since the original Panchen Lama is either dead or has been made useless after yrs in chinese captivity.

c. It is said the least known 4th top lama in tibetan setup was reportedly reincarnated in spain but has also given up sainthood and celibacy and taken up photography and probably married.

c. So #Tibet and tibetan need Karmapa simply because bcoz HHDL is too old now and after he is gone someone needs to be there sand he cant afford to lead rhem from USA.

4. Btw once again talk of leasing 6-8 Tu22M3 bombers is doing rounds but some are even opining that India should develop its own bomber that can be modified as aerial tanker/transport/awacs/ and more specialized jobs

Thanks

Joydeep ghosh

rad said...


HI prasun
there seems to be alot of confusion on what type of missile is the rudra series .It seems it is a airlaunced ballistic missile which the israelis did first.
pse throw some light on it
pakistan is going to make an embraer made passenger into a MPA is that possible given it has US engines?
wont they be vulnerable to su-30mki if they venture more than 500km from the pak border ?
or just to safe gaurd their borders . Do the present pc-3 have the intentions to do a sweep of the arabian sea far from fighter coverage ?

panic said...

Turkmenistan , Uzbekistan , Tajikistan , Iran are all neighbouring countries of Afghanistan.
Aren't they worried about possible takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban ?
Or do they approve Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan ?
It seems like India is the only Country running around with their heads on fire.
Ironically we don't even have a geographical connectivity with Afghanistan nor have we ever tried to establish one.
Unlike China which takes over things what they want by hook or crook.
A coordinated effort by Afghanistan's neighbouring countries to launch cross border raids in to Afghanistan can dither Taliban.
But the question is will they ?

SOUBHAGYA said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for earlier responses and a beautiful link about MLC 70 standard bridge in Sikkim. I have few questions w.r.t. the current blog and your analysis:

1. I'm a novice although I want know whether theaterisation is such a challenging task? I think in India it is more about personal ego and interest than country's interest. If the theaterisation goes in snail pace I think we need to blame our military leadership for any debacle against adversary. Current CDS has completely failed in achieving the objectives.

2. Will a hierarchical structure help bring synchronization among IA, IAF, IN?

3. Have you shared your thought about theaterisation with military leadership? Are they sleeping or heeding you?

At last I echo your words, we need to blame ourselves for the failure and the country is doomed to fail. People's attitude after second wave of pandemic is evident in tourist spots. Let's welcome third wave with a tearful face!!!!

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

In vuew of present situation prevailing in Afghanistan(Af), whether our efforts and investments in the Af are under threat? Further, it seems after achieving its strategic objective of eliminating OsamaBinLaden (OBL) and managing other non-state actors, they have left the Af to fend for themselves alongwith its neighbours including us. Does India made a strategic blunder by not actively participating with US and coalition?

AKS

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAGHU: A nuclear-powered submarine is the ultimate & most complex platform to be developed & built in humanity’s recorded history. It is encouraging to see the 4th-generation Russian submarines do away with mechanical valves of the type seen in 3rd generation Type 877EKN SSKs, and instead embrace extensive electrical & electro-hydraulic controls. But in terms of combat management systems, the Ruskies are still way behind the West. Afghanistan can always receive weapons supplies by air via Iran or through the Central Asian Republics.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) There’s no need for any Karmapa since both have only cult followings. The Dalai Lama too heads a sect called the GELUGPA. The 2 most critical players for sanctifying the reincarnations are only the Dalai Lama & Panchem Lama. 2) I never said that the Dalai Lama was a deep asset for anyone. Instead, I had stated that the Karmapa is. 3) The Gods of Yore can always see to it that prophecies turn out to be wrong. 4) India always had dedicated bombers like the B-24 Liberator & later the Canberra. Even An-12Bs were used for carpet-bombing in both 1965 & 1971. Today, once air supremacy has been established in a particular theatre, the C-130H-30 Super Hercules can be used for strategic carpet-bombing.

To RAD: I had already cleared such confusion last year when this image was explained by me:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsjzEJjUcAEb-G7.jpg:large

Embraer EMB-145’s MPA variants exist in service with Brazil. Since Pakistan is buying a civilian airframe & then modifying it as an MPA, it won’t invite sanctions. But in wartime, such MPAs & even the P-3Cs won’t be able to cinduct ASW sweeps unless they are escorted by MRCAs.

To PANIC: No, they are not worried at all since, unlike Afghanistan & India, they are very strict in terms of detecting & eliminating religiosity-inspired extremism & that’s why all those unemployed & disgruntled Tajiks, Ezbeks, Turkomen & their East Turkestani cousins have over the years concentrated themselves in the north-western portions of Afghanistan after they were chased out by the internal security agencies of China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan. In India’s case, one must why no cinema-halls/multiplexes have been re-opened within the Kashmir Valley (they have remained closed since 1989) even after August 5, 2019? Why do the Indian security forces continue to kill homegrown terrorists? How are such homegrown terrorists created? Is it because the Govt of India has either not been able to are has been disinclined to ban any & all forms of religiosity-inspired sermons that are issued every Friday afternoon at almost all mosques within the Kashmir Valley & even in Jammu? In fact, all was explained & revealed a long time ago here:

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CxWGE_r7EIU/Wxx7C8Sps6I/AAAAAAAAPC8/WeP87aHWdacz0YyXjt76oegVngEJqnMpgCLcBGAs/s1600/Religiosity-1.jpg

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iAvYmCnezTM/Wxx7LkEA82I/AAAAAAAAPDE/cZAxMOJR8bAmgzga6TGsfFgDTxnewI0mACLcBGAs/s1600/Religiosity-2.jpg

And adding to such troubles is the ineffectiveness of India’s electronic surveillance capabilities, as revealed here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOGS1jw1hHc

Had it not been for the US National Security Agency, such terror-modules would never have been busted.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SOUBHAGYA/ASD: The entire country is being led by the nose just like a Water Buffalo by ignorant folks like the CDS Gen Bipin Rawat & several others like him! FYI & also for everyone else, theaterisation has existed ever since the country’s independence. Theaterisation is nothing else but the creation of geographical commands, with India opting not for unitary tri-services geographical commands, but for separate armed services-specific geographic commands for each theatre of operation that have existed since independence. The one & only question therefore should now be: how to optimise the functioning of existing theatres? Is a merger necessary for the sake of undertaking joint services operations? Or will it be enough if a limited merger takes place & this also includes the positioning of the component services theatre commanders all operating from under a single roof?

Adoption of a scientific process for such an exercise (done through computerised wargaming) dictates that before raising new unitary theatre commands, it is jointness that should be given top priority even within the existing theatre command structures. And jointness can in turn come about ONLY IF A) the three armed services agree to adopt a single integrated operations plan (SIOP) for the envisaged contingency scenarios. B) The existing command, control & communications networks of the three armed services are networked via data-links (which are totally different from the data-links meant for combat aircraft). If these are done, then there will be no need for a unified air-defence command. Instead, low-hanging fruits like the creation of a tri-services unified Training Command & a unified tri-services Logistics Command ought to be given the top priority. Such matters cannot be rushed at, nor can they be completed within a 3-year period, especially since the Indian National Defence University (INDU) & its National Wargaming Centre have yet to see the light of day!!!

To AKS: The situation is by no means dire or alarming or frightening, since the Afghan National Army is fully capable both qualitatively & quantitatively to keep the Taliban at bay. If the US & other NATO member-states continue funding Afghanistan’s annual defence budgets, then the Taliban will eventually be defeated over a period of time.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Pakistani Report from Baltoro & Ghaserbaum Glaciers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gqn5saUO-28

Primers on CARs:
Kyrgyzstan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wO4q4C5ff4
Tajikistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIR48KUitqE
Turkmenistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wO4q4C5ff4
Uzbekistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gkv68AKOtQ

Russia’s OKNO Space Surveillance Telescopes in Tajikistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js955f5zdXU&t=503s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbC04JT-cKE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bOAWbqQvyY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPdt23MZWCU

1979 Sino-Vietnam War History: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8vnNeH7sec

Ground Report from Demchok on China-Staged Anti-Dalai Lama Banner Protests: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2Zkt5ZSRd0

PoJK's Corrupt Elections https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1aLQPJ63R0

Karnflakes said...

Hello sir ,
Can you tell us if the akash 1s has been ordered yet .. rather was the latest aquisition of that variant ?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

What is the feasibility of creating a medium lift aircraft which can serve as a common design base for a civil airliner, cargo lift, LR/MR Maritime Patrol, long endurance AEW Surveillance/Control/EW platform AND stretching credulity also as a Strategic Bomber? Since our development agencies won't be taking up any such project, feel free to treat it as a Thought Experiment. Ofcourse a B-52 type bomber with long range missiles might have such a design base, but is it practically possible. I am not sure even civil airliners & cargo aircraft can have efficient common designs? The engines & avionics are entirely another thing

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- how true is the news of IA asking the all electric drive of atags with a hydraulic drive for "weight& cost" reduction. this change is supposed to call for reevaluation of atags - including high attitude trails which it has already cleared...

just_curious said...

2--Chinese foreign minister making rounds to central Asian countries sharing boundary with afghanistan .. what to make out of it? will Iran get officially involved and have its Shia militia land in afghanistan now that Saudi arabia & UAE are making overturs in yemen?

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

Why our country is vocal for the Tibetans while we don't have the same for the persecuted indigenous aboriginals of Canada, Australia or New Zealand, Hawaii, US, etc. Why this hippocracy Sir? Please correct me for my ignorance!

AKS

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KARNFLAKES: The latest order was for the Akash-1S variant.

To KAUSTAV: There already exists such an aircraft, i.e. the Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules.

Civilian L-100J Freighter/Passenger Variant: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/aero/photo/c130/c130Product/LM-130J.png.pc-adaptive.full.medium.png

AEW & C Variant: https://live.staticflickr.com/5543/14067082735_6042c6bd59_b.jpg

MR/ASW Variant: https://d3lcr32v2pp4l1.cloudfront.net/Pictures/2000xAny/9/5/4/63954_lockheed-martin-is-working-on-a-maritime-patrol-ai_77924.jpg

Water-Bomber: https://i.pinimg.com/originals/3b/4f/7b/3b4f7b9fba734975265ff055e8c9a5a6.jpg

Meanwhile, it looks like yesterday’s BrahMos-1’s test –firing was not a success, apparently due to malfunctions in the ‘desi’ X-band SAR seeker, although it remains to be seen if the malfunctioning seeker was made by ECIL or Data Patterns. Another such test-firing will take place in 48 hours:

BrahMos-1 July 12 Test-Firing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6iB42-_DhU

And an interesting read: https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2021/06/how-china-steals-us-tech-catch-underwater-warfare/174558/

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Totally false, since electro-hydarulic servo-drives contain more components & are therefore heavier. Hence, such anti-science rumours can only originate from delusional ‘desi’ internet fanboys. 2) China is anxious about the US securing air bases in the CARs for its UAVs.

To AKS: It is not about hypocrisy, but about being realistic & not conducting “zaroorath se ziada thekedaari”.

To SOUBHAGYA/ASD: More MLC-70 bridges, this time in Manipur:

MAKRU BRIDGE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsoxZ66Ckg8

JIRIBAM-IMPHAL RAIL BRIDGE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKk-MXT6d9E

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

I don't know which "hippo" went "cracy" ... Lol ... Did you mean hypocrisy ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

He probably was commenting from a location near or in Kaziranga, hence the 'hippo' influence.

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

Ha ha ha ...

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

1.Several electronic components used in manufacturing the drones and payloads are imported by India. Will you please let us know what are the various components and payloads that are still imported?

2. Idea Forge is selling the SWITCH UAV to the Indian Army. Do they develop the UAV all by themselves or do they import the key components, sensors and integrates it in the airframe?
https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/general-news/army-to-receive-first-batch-of-30-indigenous-switch-tactical-drones-at-lac.html

Thank You,
VIKRAM

Chanakya Chatterjee said...

Hi Prasun

Apparently work on this has been on since 2013 and it's now ready. Which AC shall we see its application on and how does it compare to what the west and China are doing ?

https://publications.drdo.gov.in/ojs/index.php/dsj/article/view/4260/2498

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

From Lt Gen Satish Nambiar (Retd): Among the various posts and reports in recent days on the anniversary of the 1999 Kargil Operations, I received one from an old Regimental colleague and friend Colonel Vinay Dalvi, a piece put together by him for this month’s edition of The Force magazine. The references Vinay makes to the actions of some of our young stalwarts, and the remarks he attributes to Air Marshal Narayan Menon about an “air agreement that prohibited flight of aircraft and helicopters within a specified distance of the IB’/LOC..” provokes me into emerging from the self-imposed reticence that being an “Extinguished” Fellow confers, and resurrecting something I had written on the 20th Anniversary of the Kargil Operations (I cannot recollect where it appeared but still valid) because of the importance of placing past events and experiences in the right perspective when looking ahead and planning for the future. But to deal first with AM Narayan Menon’s comment: the restrictions on air activity were part of a broader agreement negotiated in April 1991 in New Delhi with the Pakistanis by a military delegation headed by me as the Director-General Military Operations, that included Air Vice Marshal Tarlochan Singh the then ACAS (Ops), Rear Admiral Vijay Malhotra the then ACNS (Ops), the late Dr Chatterjee, then JS(G) in the MoD, and Arun Kumar Singh, then Director in the Ministry of External Affairs (later to be our Ambassador in Israel and the USA, among other appointments). The Pakistani side was led by Lt Gen Shamim Ali Khan, the PA’s CGS, and included among others, Maj Gen Jehangir Karamat, the then PA DGMO. We negotiated an agreement (which still holds) on exchange of information between the two countries on the conduct of military exercises and aircraft flights in the proximity of the IB/LoC, as also communications between naval vessels at sea.

Before proceeding further, fully conscious of the fact that what I have to say, will ruffle some feathers, permit me to make a couple of points that I think are pertinent. I say without fear of contradiction (from anywhere in the world) that the performance of the junior leadership and men of India’s armed forces units that took part in OP Vijay & OP Safed Sagar was absolutely outstanding. No other Army or Air Force in the world would have displayed the determination, grit, leadership by personal example, spirit of self-sacrifice and devotion to duty that our youngsters did. And I say this with some feeling and conviction borne out of personal experience. Success in evicting the Pakistani intrusions was achieved through great feats of bravery and commitment, aided in no small measure, by the performance of our Gunners using the much maligned Bofors FH-77B howitzers, and by our young “Air Warriors” once they were cleared to get into action. With a couple of honourable exceptions, there was hardly any ‘generalship’ involved. Nor was there any display of ‘strategy’ or ‘operational art’. In that, as articulated by me even at the time when invited for discussion on TV channels, we did not take the battle to the Pakistanis by hitting them hard in the depth areas where it would have “hurt”. Or by opening up on other fronts; as was done by then Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri in September 1965.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

It is all very well to take satisfaction in the praise conferred on us by our self-styled well-wishers at displaying “RESTRAINT’. My own impressions in inter-actions and discussions in later years, has been that while our foreign interlocutors commended us at our faces for the restraint displayed, they actually did not think much of our capacity for political decision-making and assertive action in the pursuit of strategic objectives in national interests. There is no gainsaying the fact that it is not only most appropriate, but absolutely essential, that we commemorate the valour and bravery of those who laid down their lives in achieving success in the operation. As mentioned earlier, their performance was indeed quite incomparable. It is equally appropriate that we also adequately acknowledge the contribution of those who fought in that operation and are still amongst us, whether in service or otherwise. Their performance is no less praiseworthy. It was my privilege to be the Chairman of the Kargil Battle Honours Committee. To that extent, I can claim to have a better idea of what the operation was about than many of my generation. However, while it may be all very well for our political leadership and senior military leadership of the time to make a big ‘song and dance’ about the ‘victory’ in the operations, I do sincerely hope that my young colleagues in uniform, sitting today in war rooms at various levels evolving future strategies and drawing up operational plans, as also working on organisational re-structuring, equipping parameters for the future, and so on, are doing so within a realistic perspective of what exactly our past operations were about. Without being swayed by all the chest-thumping, bluster and rhetoric that appear in the public domain. And here, let me go back in time before returning to Kargil.

The operations in Jammu & Kashmir in 1947-48 were forced upon us by the tribal invasion of October 1947, followed by active participation of the Pakistan Army, and were brought to a close with the January 1, 1949 UN imposed Cease Fire Agreement; apparently when our forces were at the outskirts of Muzaffarabad. Whatever we may claim, the fact is, the operations were stalled with a large chunk of Jammu & Kashmir still in Pakistani hands. And we continue to pay the price. Can we claim it as a military ‘victory’? The 1962 conflict with China merits no discussion in context of this piece. Except to state that it was no ‘trauma’ for our generation. Because we are aware that in the overall context, our colleagues and men fought well, and gave a good account of themselves, notwithstanding the outdated clothing, weapons and equipment we were provided with, and the questionable political and senior military leadership of the time. In 1965, for all the gallant actions and efforts, consequent to the Tashkent Agreement, we reverted to pre-conflict status giving up places of strategic value like the Hajipir Pass, etc. And before going on to 1971, let me revert briefly to Kargil. To reiterate that, for all the outstanding actions of our junior leadership and rank and file, what we really achieved in military terms was to recapture what the Pakistanis had intruded upon. And at what a cost! Let us be quite clear. The 1971 operations in the Eastern theatre have been the only real MILITARY VICTORY our armed forces have achieved since Independence. In the Western theatre in 1971, it was a well executed replay of 1965. But in the Eastern theatre: a new country was born; all Pakistani forces surrendered unconditionally; and about 93,000 prisoners of war were in our custody. That these prisoners were repatriated without securing a permanent solution to the stand-off with Pakistan, is another matter altogether- An abject capitulation at the negotiating table the outcome of an outstanding MILITARY VICTORY.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

It is unlikely that in the foreseeable future, we will secure such a victory again. However, in the evolution of operational strategies, and proposed execution of operational plans, it is imperative that we factor in capacities that enable us to pre-empt our potential adversaries if we can, and/or respond to an aggression in such a manner as to make him/them recoil, and seek termination of hostilities on our terms. My plea therefore to our colleagues in uniform today is: do not put our youngsters through another Kargil-like operation. By more effective use of political, diplomatic and military options, make sure that, unlike in Kargil, they are given at least an even chance in their efforts at dealing with the adversary. And I make this plea in all earnestness and with some feeling because the armed forces hierarchy now at the helm of affairs, is constituted of those who provided the outstanding junior leadership during the 1999 Kargil operations. The crowning and troubling irony however, in portraying achievements within the framework of a false perspective is that, notwithstanding some tentative steps over the last year or so, many of the serious recommendations made by the Kargil Review Committee, endorsed by the Report of the Group of Ministers, and I dare say, many other such reports and recommendations over the years, remain in cold storage.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1 & 2): The HD optronic sensors, engines, micro-processors, data-link modems & power-generating batteries are all imported.

To CHANAKYA CHATTERJEE: Only on HAL’s I-Hawk prototype.

Harish said...

Prasun da

1)http://trishulgroup.blogspot.com/2009/01/indias-born-again-t-90m-mbt.html?m=

What happened to T-90M procurement why only T-90S were procured by IA?

2)https://m.thewire.in/article/government/defence-arjun-mk-1a-main-battle-tanks-indian-army/amp

If there are so many issues like these why are we procuring the Arjun?
Don't you think it would be wise to shut the program because the Army doesn't trust this tank?

Thanks


asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Excellent analysis indeed!!! Our political leadership has failed everytime it had got an opportunity. Even I don't think that after lots of trumpeting about capturing PoK, now I am finding a complete silence over it. I don't think that in foreseeable future India can get back PoK.

Anonymous said...

We can keep talking of joint ness, but the then air chief wanted GoI to clear air ops. Even after that IAF was not prepared for mountain bombing nor ground support. Maybe this does create a doubt .
I do hope IAF can precisely bomb mountain tops today.
The IA too has better tube and rocket artillery.

One thing for sure, IAF does have sufficient power to decimate PAF quickly , then concentrate on support to army. Army then need to handle armed drones and Manpads.
The situation with China though could be different , we need to take out the logistics lines not once, but keep doing it.

Then electronic warfare will play a far more important role with China.


Regards
Venky

Parthasarathi said...

Prasunda,

Any news of hypersonic Mark 2 version of Brahmos ?
Best regards

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HARISH: The DRDO prevailed upon the MoD by claiming that existing T-90S MBTs can be upgraded to T-90M standard by CVRDE. The Arjun Mk.1 & Mk.1A MBTs were not the IA’s favourite choice for as long as all existing bridges in the forward areas were of MLC-50 standard. Since post-2016 all such bridges are being upgraded to MLC-70 load-bearing standard, the Arjun family of MBTs will be transportable by land to any staging area in times of war.

To ASD/SOUBHAGYA: LoLz! Even now such retired senior IA officers find it extremely difficult to express themselves in a free & frank manner. The principal comments were these: With a couple of honourable exceptions, there was hardly any ‘generalship’ involved. Nor was there any display of ‘strategy’ or ‘operational art’. In that, as articulated by me even at the time when invited for discussion on TV channels, we did not take the battle to the Pakistanis by hitting them hard in the depth areas where it would have “hurt”. Or by opening up on other fronts; as was done by then Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri in September 1965. It is all very well to take satisfaction in the praise conferred on us by our self-styled well-wishers at displaying “RESTRAINT’. My own impressions in inter-actions and discussions in later years, has been that while our foreign interlocutors commended us at our faces for the restraint displayed, they actually did not think much of our capacity for political decision-making and assertive action in the pursuit of strategic objectives in national interests.

What he was trying to explain, but was unable to, was that India should have seized the initiative & launched a limited counter-offensive aimed at capturing vast chunks of northern PoJK all the way up to the Wakhan Corridor. This was possible back in 1999 because: A) The PA had launched OP Koh-e-Paima as a very limited operation without even mobilising 95% of the PA & in case of a limited IA offensive, the PA would have taken 3 months to mobilise all its warfighting formations, whereas the IA had at least 4 Mountain Divisons available then for launching a major counter-offensive aimed at capturing vast chunks of northern PoJK. B) The IAF would have enjoyed total air supremacy over the entire battle-areas because back in 1999 the PAF did not possess any BVRAAMs, whereas the IAF’s MiG-29B-12s, MiG-23MFs & Mirage-2000H/Ths all had BVRAAMs.

Even if the US had taken a negative view of such an Indian stratagem, India could easily have molified by the US then by holding out the prospect of militarily cooperating with the US on operations against Al Qaeda & the Taliban in Afghanistan. This could have been done by: A) India & the Afghan Northern Alliance building a string of air bases & heliports throughout Badakhshan all the way up to the Panjshir Valley; & B) giving the US access to such infrastructure.

India’s then Dhoti-class ‘desi netas’ clearly failed to think big & in a visionary manner & this lost a golden opportunity to become the lead player in Central Asian geopolitics. Consequently, India is now scampering around trying to make the best of a deteriorating situation. This is what the rest of the world perceives India to be & all the talk & chatter about ‘Chanakya Niti’ within India are just theoretical soundbytes, with no hope of their practical applications!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Just as I had predicted 48 hours ago, Taliban Threatens Turkey:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Olw1aT1HZg4

LoC Fire-Assault with Carl Gustaf LAWs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWefHQgpo_A

Jiribam Imphal Railway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxhCY5ev_fQ

24 hours ago, India’s ‘netas’ were well on their way to create another man-made disaster:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNL48fN7rg8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1LeETbHBbA

Then the Gods of Yore intervened with unmistakable warnings:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nduXQ4X0qs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1emzmfxEzH0&t=17s

As a result, the ‘netas’ have since been forced to back off, fearing an international embarrassment & global condemnation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzvfdY3lNQE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdyE1h6jiYk

Raghu said...

Hi,

A detailed look at the C-17. Long but detailed and informative


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7I49EBOh2v8

Regards,

Raghu

KIDDO said...

Dear Prasun
Thanks for the links to Russian Space Telescopes in Tajikistan. Reminded me of one of my favourite spy novels - The Cardinal of the Kremlin by the master of military fiction Tom Clancy. I had no idea that such facilities actually existed in Tajikistan (though of course not the Star Wars/SDI type facilities the book was about.

And speaking of Tajikistan and the CARs bordering Afghanistan, Isnt there some way whereby INdia & Russia use the available bases/infrastructure (like Fakhror) in these countries to assist the AN Army and the Afghan Govt against the Taliban. Have heard talk of India trying to project Ahmad Shah Masood's son as a leader of the Tajiks and create a Northern Alliance 2.0
Any thoughts?

Karnflakes said...

Prasun Da .
I totally agree with your assessment on our lack of strategic thinking. But on your point on mollifying the americans. They did not care about the Taliban until the twin tower attacks. I recall all the language being about "intruders" and from a PR perspective becoming intruders (from an American perspective) would not have worked .. in that scenario Nawaz Sharif may even have gotten support from the Americans if we had launched an invasion.
On a side note .. how many garrisons is pakistan able to maintain in Gilgit Balitistan do they not face problems like the IA does in Ladakh ?

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun da,

What are the Indian equivalent of

1.Iskander M and

2.Iskander K

Thanks



Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
Its seem your only concern for covid is restricted to north india while kerala and Maharashtra covid cases are above 10000 and contributing more than 50% of all the cases in india.
We all know why media will not rise questions against mismanagement communist and shiv sene govt.
I think it this colonial mindset hangover within certain elites which always not questions a non performing CM but mock good performing CM.
While you might enjoy US supremacy of power,it will like all empires end one day
Jai Bharat

Susan said...

Prasun Da,

Today 9 Chinese nation are killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa who are employed in China funded
Dasu Dam. Chinese foreign office clam it is bomb attack and Pakistan foreign office says it was an accident.Is Pakistan is hiding some thing.

Prithvi Kshitij said...

Hi Prasun.. off the subject, what do you think about the Ufo report duly being published by US intelligence? What are all these sightings and trackings UFOs and swarms by Nimitz? I am curious and have been following the topic but I cannot make anything out of it. Requesting your valuable opinion on this please.

Anonymous said...

sir,

1. taliban has almost blocked all border posts for stopping supplies. so their contingency plan is to capture much territory before northern alliance ( tribes ) is reactivated ?

2. what happened to USHS suite of sonar??? saw in twitter that USHS MK2 is to be installed in arihant class. is true or its the russian sonars as u have showed in the previous thread??

thank you
Yogesh

just_curious said...

Prasun,

there are sudden flood of articles about hal IMRH replacing the older Mi 8/17's & navy now supposedly coming onboard & abdoning plans for further MH 60 R inductions.. what is the truth in those? & why opt for a super traditional design when world over push propellers are becoming std for upcoming helis? why not join hands for KA92
HAl seems to be all prepared --HAL: Indian Multi Role Helicopter

DAshu said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4h6t4fhKBI

Sir, these guys are possessing really really good quality afghani maal.
A nation that cannot show spine to take back what is legally its land and these guys are going overboard to give undue credit to India.

Fear of a strong Afghanistan is clearly showing in paki land. That's why everyone is commenting on Afghan army training and etc.

btw what is that new fighter Russia is coming up with shown in a short video teaser?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KIDDO: No, not India, but Afghanistan’s Rajik VP Amrullah Salleh is doing that. He is also the one responsible for arming the local militias to form a second line of defence in provinces that surround Kabul. Having bases in countries that are Afghanistan’s neighbours won’t be of any help, since within Afghanistan itself there are several such bases. All that is reqd is financial assistance & a steady supply of armaments/ammunition, and also ensuring high serviceability rates for the ANDF’s Mi-17s & Mi-25s. Russia can chip in with supplies of small arms & ammunition, plus artillery rounds for D-20 122mm towed howitzers, which in any case are in short supply & more D-20s need to be given to the Afghan National Army to make up for the loss of US Army & USAF firepower.

To KARNFLAKES: I was referring strictly to the 1999-2001 period, when the US was desperately hunting OBL. At that time, none of the CARs were willing to offer bases to the US because they were busy with their own internal strife/civil wars. The only hope then was Badakhshan province in the Walhan Corridor that, with India’s assistance, could easily have been taken over by the Northern Alliance. But India missed this opportunity & instead took the long circuitous route via Iran & Tajikistan to provide weapon supplies to the Northern Alliance. All this has been explained in great detail by all the following books:

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81+6VIN2WfS.jpg

https://kbimages1-a.akamaihd.net/2c0f364e-22ff-41ac-bbf3-d740ae2c77a8/1200/1200/False/at-the-center-of-the-storm-1.jpg

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/91xYWcAwOOL.jpg

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81J48uMO6HL.jpg

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/71jLB31+1eL.jpg

In GB, there are only two Brigades during peacetime, since the PA does not face any military from either the west or north.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Had explained it 3 years ago here:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/10/from-prithvi-to-pralay.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MOHAN: You’ve got it upside-down, because the more the reporting of cases, it means the better the system of detection. Hence, both Kerala & Maharashtra score over all others in terms of early-warning & pro-active prevention of major outbreaks. And that in turn contributes to the drastic reduction of shortages of items like liquid oxygen. The exact opposite holds true for all those states that are shy of being transparent about the pandemic’s spread. Just as the pandemic has no political favourites & adversaries, so does the data. Therefore, to trying to make sense of the ground realities through blinkered vision will only increase the state of denial. In any case, the PM of India himself has come out against large-scale public gatherings of any sort, so you might as well as blame him too for displaying excessive concern about the pandemic’s potential 3rd-wave breaking out in all those states that derive both monetary & political gains through large-scale propagation of religiosity-derived sentiments. And you can also rest assured that US global hegemony won’t decline or get extinguished either in your lifetime or my lifetime.

To SUSAN: It is the TTP that is exacting revenge for all the excesses of the PA that have been unleashed against the natives of KPK & erstwhile FATA since 2004. After all, one must not forget that within tribal societies, the concept of ‘blood revenge’ gets transferred from generation to generation & hence the TTP wants to avenge of all the thousands of innocent Pashtun civilians that have been killed since 2004 by the US-conducted & PA-facilitated drone strikes. In addition, despite the amalgamation of FATA with KPK province back in 2017, there are no local police stations or courts for maintenance of law-n-order & settlements of disputes. This in fact is causing a lot of anti-govt resentment among the native Pashtuns.

To PRITHVI KSHITIJ: The UFOs involved with the ‘Nimitz Encounters’ are all man-made, i.e. of US origin. That’s because these UFOs were operating in areas with no geo-magnetic anomalies. The reason non-Earth UFOs prefer to enter & exit Earth through areas with geo-magnetic anomalies is because such areas are sterile, i.e. devoid of Earth-origin bacteria & germs. And despite this, the aliens take extra precautions by not entering the Earth’s atmosphere themselves, but instead send genetically-engineered humanoids who have been immunised against such bacteria/germs. And that’s also why in ancient Indian scriptures the original ‘Gods’ worshipped during the Vedic period (Indra, Varuna, Surya, etc etc) never descended on to Earth. Instead, they used to reside in orbiting ‘cities’ (mother-ships) known as ‘Indra Lok’, ‘Brahma Lok’, ‘Shiv Lok’ etc etc.

To YOGESH: 1) Badakshah province has been wrested back from the Taliban. This is the overall plan of the Taliban:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHJAJWbUirY

2) USHUS has been developed & engineered only for the Type-877EKM SSKs, as claimed by the DRDO itself here:

https://www.drdo.gov.in/ushus-2

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: Yes, perhaps, but only after 2035 since HAL itself has stated that it will be able to offer the IMRH variants only after 2035. So what happens until then?

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is gearing up to deliver the first batch of three Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) to the Indian Air Force (IAF) once acceptance tests are completed. These are part of the 15 Limited Series Production (LSP) helicopters approved for the Army and the IAF. HAL has received Letter of Intent for five Air force and five Army LCH for delivery pending contract finalisation of 15 Limited Series Production (LSP) LCH. HAL has produced and signalled out three LSP LCH for the IAF. Same will be subjected to customer acceptance and training shortly. On the remaining helicopters of the LSP series, in the current year HAL is producing four LCHs for Army and two for the Air Force. Remaining six LCHs will be produced next year. The IAF has put forward a requirement for 65 LCH and the Army for 114 helicopters. Presently, the Army has 90 Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH) and 75 Rudra, weaponised ALHs.

To DASHU: Rest assured that Afghanistan does not need IA’s manpower. Instead, it requires IAF technical manpower for ensuring high serviceability rates for its Russia-origin helicopters. It was all explained here yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V45aX67mC08&t=27s

Russia’s new single-engined FGFA is still undergoing engineering development.

And finally, we have this ‘bandalbaazi’ after a rather long spell of drought:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv258JA7RFs

To ASD: Rajouri MLC-70 Bridge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lskZZGyZZI

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

As you have pointed out frequently, the sheer stupidity of India's procurement process & development systems as well as production bottlenecks topped by our bureaucracy military and civil doesn't seem to improve. Artillery seems to have been targeted for corruption in procurement & confusion in development & production.

https://thedailyguardian.com/aatmanirbharta-and-defence-procureme/amp/?

Anonymous said...

Hi,
https://m.thewire.in/article/security/watch-indian-chinese-troops-clashed-in-may-casualties-possible-col-ajai-shukla


Major clashes with the Chinese this year as well? Modi keeps quiet and no military response?

rad said...

hi prsun
is it not cost effective to emply atacam ,extra ,paraly type misiles to take out airfields and radar then send in uavs and arm eqiped fightr to neutralise the airfields , rather that sending costly fighter to take of target. ex the ly 80 system can be taken out with ease using the pralay give todays accuraccies > 5 m . aide by gps navic and laser INS.?
I think we badly need extra type rockets to tqarget china to off set their advantage. Has the indian missiles become accurate after the advent of desi laser gyros and navic. will it be cost effective to mount active radar on the nose like the brahmos etc.

Glaginye said...

Prasunda,


1. My thought is after the Taliban take over major parts of Afghanistan they will turn their attention to the Durand line. Will the post-Soviet exit situation coming to the frontier areas of Pak. I also read there were a lot of people from Pak trying to Enter Af & were tear-gassed.
Are the TTP fighting alongside the Taliban? If so then what gives post the takeover of Kabul if that happens.

2. What is your thought on the following
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv258JA7RFs

Though I don't always believe this Shuka fellow. But, it seems he was right last time & could be this time also.
What do your sources say? Was there really another clash on 2nd May. Were there any casualties on either side?

Additional Q:
Who do you think is behind Kohistan bombing of the bus?

Thanks,
Glag

AMIT BISWAS said...

Khela pura aapke isharo pe hi ho raha hai 😋😋😋...even porkistanis are pissed off after the covert arms consignment delivery to Afghan by india

Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
your military and geopolitics knowledge is unmatched, but the true strength of any nation lies in its economy. There are various financial and monetary policy events taking place in the US and why I am saying US Empir will soon( within 5 years):

The Power of the Fed (full documentary) | FRONTLINE:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RbL8lTsITY

regards

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

So the Taliban now get close air support at Spin Boldak. As Amanullah Saleh tweets "Breaking: Pakistan air force has issued official warning to the Afghan Army and Air Force that any move to dislodge the Taliban from Spin Boldak area will be faced and repelled by the Pakistan Air Force. Pak air force is now providing close air support to Taliban in certain areas" Nice, very nice

Arun said...

Sir,your thoughts on Amrullah Saleh's(vice-president of Afghanistan) tweet?

Breaking: Pakistan air force has issued official warning to the Afghan Army and Air Force that any move to dislodge the Taliban from Spin Boldak area will be faced and repelled by the Pakistan Air Force. Pak air force is now providing close air support to Taliban in certain areas

https://twitter.com/AmrullahSaleh2/status/1415710708541673475

Rajesh Mishra said...

Sir, What is the role of Abdullah Abdullah in the present context?? Can he be helpful in reformation of the Northern Alliance again ?? I think he is still popular among the masses. Kindly reply.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: There are 3 principal targets that need to be destroyed for attaining air supremacy. First, the SAM sites, then the air bases & then the combat aircraft assets at such air bases. SAM sites can be taken out by ARMs & PGMs like SS-BSMs or ALCMs. The air bases can be taken out by SS-BSMs & SRBMs, while the HAS housing the combat aircraft can be taken out by ALCMs. If SRBMs are to be used against air bases, then that would call for up to 90 SRBMs being used against a single air base for complete destruction. For destroying the HAS, at least 30 ALCMs will be reqd. For neutralising a static LR-SAM site, at least 10 ARMs will have to be fired, followed by 5 SS-BSMs/SRBMs or 3 ALCMs being employed.

SR-91: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkvzT2KsD_s

To GLAGINYA: 1) No Afghan will ever accept the sanctity of the Durand Line. The TTP’s targets are all inside Pakistan. The Kohistan bombing, if it was a deliberate bombing, is most likely to be the handiwork of the TTP. The ‘desi Bandalbaaz’ is dead-wrong, especially when it comes to the S-400. For, be it S-300 or S-400 or even S-500, they are effective only against lumbering high-altitude aerial targets & are next-to-useless against combat aircraft employing terrain-masking flight profiles. And in any case, any IAF AEW & CS platform flying over Himachal Pradesh or Uttarakhand will be out of reach of the PLAAF’s LR-SAMs, thanks to the Earth’s curvature. 2) Your answer can be found here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtU-7tU_01Q&t=12s

To AMIT BISWAS: What will piss both them & Beijing off even more are the latest developments in Nepal, as explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fruB_J0wrHo&t=81s

To MOHAN: LoLz! We all have been hearing about the imminent US economic collapse since the 2008 financial meltdown. But it seems the overwhelming majority does not buy your predictions, if this is to be believed:

Indians Choosing To Study Abroad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9gkFTwkgNA

More than 18 million Indians were living outside the country in 2020 and this number is now growing at a much higher rate after the pandemic.

To KAUSTAV & ARUN: Great! All that is now reqd to be done is to dispatch an IAF squadron of Igla-1 MANPADS to provide defensive SAM cover over Spin Boldak in support of the Afghan national Army. That should be more than enough to deter the PAF.

To RAJESH MISHRA: He is no longer that influential within the NA. The VP Amrullah saleh is the point-man for strengthening the NA’s fighting prowess.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Drone Rules, 2021:

https://www.civilaviation.gov.in/sites/default/files/Draft_Drones_Rules_14_Jul_2021.pdf

Glaginye said...

Thanks, Prasunda!
Regarding the MANPADS. Will India provide them to the Af National Army.

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

We Indian mice should find a safe place to hide. Your suggestion is not appreciated by the Taliban. The Taliban spokesMAN has already warned India against such perfidy as suggested by you "Indian can contribute to the reconstruction and rehabilitation of Afghanistan. However, India should remain neutral and should not support the current Afghan govt with military hardware, says Taliban spokesperson."

Tee Hee Prasunda, no one here but us scaredy mice😉😆😆😆

Raghu said...

Hi,

The following links shows first images of Russia's latest single engine fighter. They seem to have done a good job of keeping it under wraps. The aircraft is to be unveiled during MAKS- 2021 airshow which is due in a few days

https://glav.su/files/messages/2021/07/16/6110792_24ef736e17676bf2169352192b47fc04.jpg

https://glav.su/files/messages/2021/07/16/6110792_e8d8ab30a2f55f4e1a141683511b4a69.jpg

Regards,

Raghu

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- Russia not willing to back India's efforts to bolster current afghan govt or a psuedo northern alliance
2- Did India gain anything @ SCO or the Uzbek connectivity summit?
3- New russian single engine plane? any lure for india?
4- P75i RFI by MDI- DRDO AIP excluded? where is it going

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Japan Officially Dumps ‘One China’ Policy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GW-dQ-Vqu9o

To GLAGINYE: That option is always open. Or the IAF can operate a MANPADS detachment at the invitation of the Govt of Afghanistan.

To KAUSTAV: There are several unused BMP-1 ICVs & T-55 tanks that can be made available by the IA to its Afghan counterpart by shipping them via Chabahar. Meanwhile, more bandalbaazi:

One Year After Galwan Clashes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sxd0tldWcws

To RAGHU: This is a better impression:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6Zjl1SWEAEJG4W?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

To JUST_CURIOUS: Why should the MAREEM AIP be excluded from P-75I, especially if ultimately the P-75I morphs into just an extension of the P-75 project? And not just Afghanistan, but even the CAR neighbours of Afghanistan, especially Uzbekistan & Tajikistan, are asking for Indian military assistance.

Shyam Saran & Vijay Gokhale: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YXKnIoPIvE

Double-Laning of Sikkim’s Roads & GRSE-Built MLC-70 Modular Steel Bridges:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6lZmj1TW0c&t=38s

This is one of two areas where anomalous phenomena keeps on getting observed:

Chandra Taal Lake in Spiti Valley (32.47518 N, 77.61706 E):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU0utG9RdC0

The other is at Pariyon ka Talaab (34 29 29.96 N, 75 38 57.41 E) south of Marpo La.

AMIT BISWAS said...

https://twitter.com/TheDEWLine/status/1416070288169742341?s=20

Now it seems software update for fighters will be using OTA norms in future to deal threats in live scenario

Anonymous said...

The new Russian single engine 5th gen fighter, will IAF be interested ? Was this the reason MiG29 never got funding?

Regards
Venky

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Many thanks as usual

Sir, the Brahmos wasn't tested again, aftee the failure which does seem to be some problem with the booster or nose cone if this video is genuine as it seems to have crashed within 48hours. Are these tests for progressively increasing range of Brahmos or are they moves towards more indigenous parts which might have caused the failure either in hardware (nose cone, booster) or software / avionics?

An updated thread on India's missile program which seems to be now focused more on delivering weapons intended for actual military use rather than TDs seems to be on in eranest.

Thank you & looking forward un expectation. Our strategic vision limitations & self-imposed constraints are not too delightful anyway these days

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: This is nothing new & has been in existence since the previous decade itself:

http://interactive.aviationtoday.com/avionicsmagazine/september-2019/military-satcom-avionics-a-growing-opportunity-over-next-decade/

The PLAAF's J-10Bs already have SATCOM antennae behind the cockpit to receive such data:

http://www.aereo.jor.br/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/j-10-cockpit-1.jpg

For as long as there are programmable DFRM modules within the EW suite, the EW threat library can be updated using both line-of-sight L-band/UHF-band tactical data-links or C-band SATCOM. That's why it is highly surprising that such SATCOM transmitting/receiving antennae are not to be seen in the Super Su-30MKI upgrade poster of HAL, nor in the scale-models of Su-30MKI displayed by DARE, nor in the scale-models of the MWF, AMCA & TEDBF of ADA.

Afghan Air Force: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wcN00aIBw4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dBEkulPt-w

Wakhan Corridor Explained: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FC7V1nmZJU8

Afghan President's Speech in Tashkent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPHkw9hC7h8

South Africa Burning: Why Are Indians Being Attacked and What's The Role of Gupta Brothers?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLay7ozwiqA

China Claims Victory in South China Sea https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFjs05LQCno

Type 039A Yuan-class SSK Brief: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwWIusZi-hY

Japan’s White Paper 2021:

https://www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_paper/wp2021/DOJ2021_Digest_EN.pdf

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/07/13/national/japan-taiwan-defense-paper/

https://www.defensenews.com/smr/energy-and-environment/2021/07/13/japans-new-defense-whitepaper-issues-warnings-over-taiwans-security-climate-change/

Since Japan is now openly examining the prospects of militarily defending Taiwan in cooperation with the US, this only indicates that Japan no longer considers Taiwan to be a province of China, this in turn meaning that Japan has terminated its ‘One China’ policy.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Between Balakote & Bhimber Gali Facing Nakyal in PoJK, IA’s ‘Door Dhrishti’ Project:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrJ6i_ppHzE&t=75s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjMgWaOLJyE

Arun said...

Prasun babu aap hi yeh boliye- kya aap aur Biswas Bangal ke bahar paida huye hain? Nahin huye to Biswas, jo Bangali ladka hai woh kyoon aap se Hindi me charcha karte hain jab Bharat ke 50% logon Hindi ke prasar nahin chahte hain? Agar Biswas ko yehi sawal karoon to Biswas bakhwas or gali dena shuru karta hai. Kya is sawal ka jawab Bharat ke Netawon ka dimak ke tarha ghabraya hua hain? या जैसा कि अक्सर होता है, बिस्वास, बंगाली लोगों की तरह दिखावा कर रहे हैं?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

The increasing importance of large SSGNs compared to SSBNs & more crucially SSNs. The flexibility, firepower & lethality in huge quantities & varieties both of missiles carried as well as sheer numbers of such submarines mark the US out as a true maritime & subsurface hyperpower. India should seek to emaluate the US on a scale sustainable - After all - Baap kaa Beta, Sipahi ka Ghoda, kuch nahi toh thoda thoda

manoj joshi said...

Is it near Pir Badesar ? That's the best location for listening and viewing post in the area.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

DRDO Launches Biodegradable Packaging Products:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcgivV7BUrs

First 2 MH-60Rs Handed Over to IN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFlhwikxTEI

To MANOJ JOSHI: This was the location of the TV crew's filming: 33 30 8.74 N, 74 10 9.32 E

Pir Badesar is here: 33 17 56.43 N, 74 9 13.64 E

Kaustav said...

What's the big deal?! We are all Indians & language a tool of communication for convenience & understanding. This doesn't matter as long as we understand each other, the rest is jingoism, drop such mindsets. Nir does religion for that matter But again, thats another issue

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: Interesting webinars:

India’s National Security Challenges, Higher Defence Management Reforms:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X5u2QtOHfg

Nehru, Tibet & China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqOo8PConMA

Sikkim: A History of Intrigue & Alliance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Y_MkcdleVA

Kaustav said...

Prasunda, thanks again.
Apologies, I missed putting in the relevant link, with my previot post, on Virginia class SSN/SSGN mods of USN

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/07/us-navys-virginia-class-submarines-get-more-tomahawk-missiles/

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasunda, thanks for sharing the link related to new laws that will govern drone operations in India.

However, as long as Government of India is unable to indigenize the sensors, payloads that are used in manufacturing drones, companies, operators will continue to import those systems.

Government of India need to indigenize the domestic electronics industry first. But they refuse to. Dhando lobby benefits from imports.

Thanks again

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- kidnapping of afghan envoy's daughter & torture-- how low can pakis get .. what blow back can they expect .. will this event make any diff to nationalists in taliban? also why will the afghans not payback in kind?
2-- Naval medium range maritime reconnaissance, it has beeen put in deep freeze.. can the cj130 sea guradian be a good bet ? since some parts are already being produced by tatas

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

This gets even better. It's normal for Paxtan to do so with India. With Afghanistan, it's even easier since they already consider it ripe for picking as a colony confederation.

Afghanistan Foreign Ministry says the daughter of Najibullah Alikhel, ambassador to #Pakistan was kidnapped and tortured in Islamabad.

“We condemn this disgraceful act in strongest words & urge Pak to take steps to secure diplomats & their families,” the statement added.

Ram Bharadwaj said...

Is the news of Pakistan Air force buying 36 J-10 authentic? How does it alter the Air power between IAF and PAF?

Kaustav said...

2. More P8-Is, if necessary mofified for MRMR role but common with the LRMR to create sustainable & cost-effective logistics

Sidharth said...

Prasun da,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KEZhaMc2VA

How do you see his analysis on the Taliban, Afghanistan, and Pakistan post US leaving Afghanistan, will Durand line be hot, will there be a Civil war again and extended into Pakistan western frontier.

First glance at the new Russian single-engine fifth-generation fighter jet - 5 to 7 years for the first prototype from now
https://twitter.com/i/status/1416752722905210881

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: The IN was the pioneer in such matters, albeit using SSKs, when it became the forst navy in the world to acquire SLCMs for its Type-877EKM SSKs back in the year 2000, i.e. the Novator 3M14E Klub 300km-range land-attack cruise missiles & their Kalibre-PLE fire-control systems. And that’s why the SLCM variant of Nirbhay too is under development.

To MANOJ JOSHI: Pir Badesar is an ideal post for SIGINT/COMINT stations. But when it comes to visual observation, posts closer to the LoC are desirable simply because of the shorter observation ranges of the thermal imagers, especially when monitoring terrain over riverine areas or areas full of Gallis & Nallahs—the ideal infiltration routes. But the extra vigilance near Bhimber & Nakyal is probably due to increased movements during the on-going poll campaigning season within the AJK component of PoJK, as evidenced by this ‘Jalsa’:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8V6rtQ3uaP0

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Indigenisation of such sensors is an impossibility when even sensors for CCTV cameras have not been indigenised. The major supplier of such CCTV sensors in India remains HIKVISION of China.

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) Why should anyone be surprised when Pakistan has been responsible for far more horrific crimes in the past, like the torching of the US Embassy in Islamabad in 1979, as shown here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4y1fN_pk12w

2) LoLz! Today MALE-UAVs like Sea Guardian can do the same job as turboprop-powered MRMR platforms. Hence, it is far better to invest in such platforms for both the IN & ICGS. In addition, the IN should have a fleet of 24 P-8I LRMR/ASW platforms, while the ICGS must have a fleet of 24 Sea Guardian MALE-UAVs & 12 P-8I LRMRs armed with ASMs like AGM-65 Maverick.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: Totally FAKE NEWS.

To SIDHARTH: LoLz! Such Pakistani-centric dimwits are the main reason why India’s public remains fixated on Pakistan while ignoring China! This entity seems to suffer from a very low sense of self-esteem & hence he includes the term ‘Major’ when introducing himself, thereby deliberately misrepresenting himself & also maligning the institution that he once served with. If you want an objective assessment of Afghanistan-related matters & those of Pakistan, then these offer far more sensible evaluations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBsMwRWdP7E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTJfLIb75OU&t=26s

https://youtu.be/c9vuTtkOZLM

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pegasus-project/how-does-pegasus-work

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pegasus-project/life-in-azerbaijans-digital-autocracy-they-want-to-be-in-control-of-everything

Who & Why of PEGASUS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ2lfrc0AgI

Afghan Ambassador's Daughter Case https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAe3mxu93gI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQGYecx30kw

Unknown said...

The reason the major is pakistan centric is because he prefers it ..however the reason why threat of china is not brought to people of india is because people like prasoon k sengupta shy from television debates and prefer chatting in self created echo chambers..one needs to investigate rationally and common sensically oneself for the easiest part is to criticise, blame and bitch around rather taking responsibility on ones own shoulder.

Regards

Kunal

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KUNAL: LoLz! He IS NOT a Major anymore. Nor do cockfights-like TV debates (where bitching around & abusing one another are the norm) make any intellectual contributions anywhere. The 'self-created echo-chambers' in contrast have far-reaching reverberations that provoke one to engage in 'critical thinking'.

Parthasarathi said...

Prasunda,
Considering the situation at LAC , do Indian army has any plan to order further batches of SIG 716 ? What is army's experience on that particular rifle ?
Best regards

Unknown said...

How many visit your blog? Only delusional fools do back patting

Regards

Kunal

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PARTHASARATHI: The operational imperatives along the LoC are totally different from those along the LAC. Along the former, it is not a full-fledged combat scenario & 95% of the exchange of firepower involves small-arms. Along the latter, a conventional warfare scenario prevails & consequently tube/rocket artillery & air-delivered ammunition will be used more than small-arms fire. Here is one general report on the employment of small-arms along the LoC:

https://theprint.in/defence/army-uses-jugaad-to-turn-the-american-sig-716-into-a-mean-rifle-for-soldiers-at-loc/698631/

To KUNAL: The quantum of visitors to this blog is clearly shown above to the right. And if you are claiming that only ‘delusional fools’ do so, then I can safely infer that you, in an act of modesty of the highest order, are including yourself as one of those delusional fools. On top of that, you have over the years consistently mis-spelt my name, this being highly indicative of your short attention-span & utter disrespect for paying attention to the detail. Above all else, the handle you use is by itself an admission about your utter lack of self-esteem & the sheer fright about being held identifiable & accountable for your comments.

Praksh said...

Mr. Prasun

1)How is India's Sub-conventional war with Pakistan going on?

2)Has the Indian Establishment learned it's lessons?

3) What are the tools required for waging it? Do we have them?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
Isn't it logical to order additional scorpenes instead of floating a new tender for P75i since we already have production lines of the same running
Regards,
Chintan

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Afghanistan Army Chief To Visit India: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b8B8RlIoa4

Kaustav said...

Beliet, it's Mr.Prasun Sengupta's blog, if you don't like his POV/Analysis either put up a civil argument & debate or ignore & stop viewing this blog. Why abuse?! If you want Prasunda to present his views on TV/electronic media, you may suggest so, but the same has to be his privilege.

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Dada,

We I think people forget that blog is space for discussion not name calling
Also, The day we accept our mistakes then we start making ammeds this is what
I see missing in our folks and this stops the improvement capability with which we are
born with


সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da,

Of late, I desist from commenting on Political Matters, since, that is not my cup of tea and I am least interested in those, but a stable Government is more preferred over a chaotic, self confusing one, which characterizes the opposition in Parliament at present preciously, I agree the present lot at helm of power, has its fault, but it is totally disgusting to see, how man days along with Tax Payers money go down the drain, in the form of adjournment of Parliament post shameful ruckus happening in the name of 'Protest'. Pegasus does not invoke any interest from part of me, or I don't pay any attention to it, since it does not bother me, and many common citizen may also think so .

Any ways that's my view point, any body has the right to agree or disagree with the same.

BTW, a very informative and timely thread, but have some queries, as follows:

A. As DRDO, upgrade Agni Series BMs, and test fires new missiles like Pralay we may see SFC conducting more tests to dispose of the present stocks of the old and liquid fuelled missiles near future, frequently ? I think you have at past hinted at this ?

B. As you have stated, Gen. Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai of ANA, will be on visit from coming Tuesday, what we can expect from the visit ?

C. After alleged mutilation of body of Danish Siddiqui by the Taliban, may draw any response from India ? Till date neither have Taliban claimed the responsibility of killing him or neither GoI have said anything about it ?

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/taliban-hands-over-indian-photojournalist-danish-siddiqui-body-to-red-cross-1829146-2021-07-16

D. Is their any project called MPDMS i.e. MANPADS Project of DRDO, what's the status of it ? Or is it fake ?

https://defenceforumindia.com/attachments/1595582233869-png.54041/
https://defenceforumindia.com/attachments/img_20200724_153805-jpg.54046/
https://alphadefense.in/drdo-vshorad-manpad-alpha-exclusive/

However, there is a DRDO plan to link MANPADS to Air Defence Network.

https://guardingindia.com/india/drdo-plans-to-link-manpads-to-air-defence-network/

Please share your views on above .

Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

Sirji,

1.) Russians already have upgraded their Oniks to 800Km. How will will it take to upgrade BrahMos to that range given the technological know how is there ?

2.) Whats happening with Tejas ? No new FOC delivery, no weapon testing. I thought they would have integrated SAAW and Astra with it by now.

3.) When will be the deal for HALE UAVs with America be signed ? And like you said UAVs are better than turboprop aircrafts is it wise to buy C295s ?

4.) https://bmpd.livejournal.com/
The new single jet Russian plane looks impressive. They are planning to be in production by 2026. If HAL and ADA fail to deliver on Mk 1A do you see IAF reducing order of MWF and going for this ?

5.) Was reading about 2008 Russian military reforms and how Anatoly Serdyukov pretty much forced down reforms on stubborn general staff. Results of all this is showing with present Russian military modernization. And here sadly we cannot even implement reforms suggested in the 70s,absolute failure of the military, bureaucracy and especially political class.

-Bhvk

Pratap said...

Sir, Russia has released the first footage of S-500 air defence system. We must order a few regiments before soon before other countries queue up to grab it. Ideally we should have ordered the S-400 soon after it entered service in 2007. Let's not make the same mistake again. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/07/20/russia-shows-advanced-s-500-live-fire-test-a74564

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRAKSH: The essential tools reqd for waging sub-conventional warfare are not yet available to India’s armed forces. For instance, the IAF does not as yet possess any platform that it can claim as being optimised for combat search-n-rescue. Consequently, an IAF pilot downed inside hostile airspace has no chance of safe recovery, just as was the case with Wing Commander Abhinandan on February 27, 2019.

To CHINTAN: Yes, it is, absolutely.

To BHVK: 1) Yes, the range of BrahMos-1 too will be increased to 800km, as it was revealed yesterday at the MAKS-2021 expo. 2) As I had explained before, i8ntegration of GSH-23 cannon on to the Tejas Mk.1 is not as easy as it was made out to be. Integration of SAAW & Astra-1 involve electronic interfacing, whereas the cannon’s integration requires electro-mechanical & structural interfacing. The latter is a far more challenging task. 3) There exists no fixed timeline for such a contract. Most likely the contract will be inked only next year. 5) Unlike India, Russia has a long history of placing utmost emphasis on education, especially the physical sciences & this in turn encourages not only critical thinking, but also logical reasoning. In India, cockfights staged by various TV channels are given greater priority for the sake of entertaining dimwits & nitwits. 4) The developmental targets revealed by Sukhoi OKB/United Aircraft Corp are far too optimistic, especially if one compares them with those for the Su-57. Here’s a video on the Su-75 LTAS Checkmate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVSpRf-Hvmg

To SUMANTA NAG: They may well ‘seem’ to be political matters, but in reality they have grave consequences, especially in the spheres of nation-building & national security. And since what goes around eventually comes around, the present-day ruling dispensation during the UPA-2’s reign was equally disruptive & now it is being treated in the very same manner. Nor can the ruckus in Parliament be singled out as being the only obstructor/disruptor. For, the greatest impediments are ther archaic laws/regulations that no one wants to change, like the 1867 Police Act or the 1885 Epidemic & Telegraph Acts. Does anyone in India even use the Telegraph???

A) It is no use firing off obsolescent BMs because if they end in failures then this will give rise to worries about the overall arsenal of BMs available to the SFC. B) He will be asking for technical support from the IAF, i.e. deputation of IAF technicians to Afghanistan for servicing the Afghan Mi-17s & Mi-25s. In addition, a steady supply of small-arms & ammo of Russia-origin will be sought. C) India cannot do much beyond ensuring a steady supply of the weapons & technical support being sought by Afghanistan. D) The DRDO has contracted VEM Technologies as the prime industrial contractor for developing a fully engineered MPDMS.

To PRATAP: The S-500 has not been offered for export by Russia.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV & TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: VMT, but the ‘UNKNOWN’ dimwits do need to be shown the mirror quite often. Now let’s get on to far more important matters, such as this:

“DRDO has indigenously developed a High Strength Metastable Beta Titanium Alloy containing Vanadium, Iron and Aluminium, Ti-10V-2Fe-3Al on industrial scale for applications in aerospace structural forgings. It has been developed by Defence Metallurgical Research Laboratory (DMRL), a premier Hyderabad based laboratory of DRDO. These alloys are already being used by many developed nations in recent times as beneficial substitute for the relatively heavier traditional Ni-Cr-Mo structural steels to achieve weight savings. The excellent forgeability of high strength-to-weight ratio Ti-10V-2Fe-3Al alloy facilitates manufacture of intricately configured components for aerospace applications with potential for significant weight savings. Some of the components which may be forged from this alloy include slat/flap tracks, landing gear, and drop link in landing gear–among several others. The high strength beta titanium alloys are unique due to their higher strength, ductility, fatigue, and fracture toughness–making them increasingly attractive for aircraft structural applications. Furthermore, their relatively lower lifetime cost, owing to superior corrosion resistance in comparison to steels, is an effective trade-off to justify the use of this expensive material in India too. The DMRL has carried out raw material selection, alloy melting, thermo-mechanical processing, ultrasonics-based Non Destructive Evaluation (NDE), heat treatment, mechanical characterization, and type certification in active collaboration with several agencies. Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) has identified over 15 steel components which may be replaced by Ti-10V-2Fe-3Al alloy forgings in the near future with a potential of 40% weight savings. The landing gear drop link is the first component forged successfully by ADA at HAL, Bengaluru with DMRL’s involvement and duly certified for airworthiness.”

This explains why the NLCA Mk.1’s flight-tests from the aircraft carrier were terminated at 20 landings/takeoffs, i.e. the existing landing gear is heavy & thus it will compromise the max weapons load parameters. However, this newly-developed alloy now has to be made corrosion-resistant to bring it on par with comparable alloys now being used by the navies of the US & France.

On another note, it would seem that Russia’s Mikoyan OKB is subtly indicating its interest in the IN’s TEDBF project by proposing this:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6ufbaPWQAA6cht?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6ufcapWYBQ5f_U?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6ufd7gWYBYdvyt?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6uffVlWYCkAb00?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6ufKz4WYA0dtJx?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6ufMEMWYAM1Eh5?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6ufNKcWYB4NrCP?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6ufOYbWYCQIy8N?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

Thanks for the above. I had read about this new alloy. Thanks for the update on it's immediate application as I was wondering about same

Also yesterday's test, the launch vehicle for AKASH-NG & DRDO's press release clearly mark it out be a highly mobile radar integrated E-SHORADS. It's so obviously not a clone of the MRSAM/Barak-8 & will be procured in much larger numbers due to it's applications. In a layered ADS, it will obviously occupy the critical space for acquiring & shooting down targets in a 40km range which the MRSAM will force lower & hand over to the E-SHORADS. With the QRSAM, the Akash NG will be great for the IBGs.

Why this obsession with declaring ita 70km missile which it isn't by form factor, launcher & characteristics as per DRDO press releases. Obviously it reaches a higher altitude than the QRSAM & just as simply both robust manouverable SAMs are not at all MRSAM. Just because the QRSAM reaches 30kms ranges at lower altitudes, while the Akash NG detects targets at 80kms approx & gets them within 40kms range, why this ridiculous obsession to make it 70kms when the MRSAM/LRSAM is available in that role.

Fanboy stuff transcends logic & commonsense

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, won't it be better to buy the Russian Jet of Mikyoan OKB of the shelf for TEDBF Project since, they have expertise of developing MiG - 29K, save fund and time for developing MWF? Also, when we can expect first test firing of MPDMS as well as service induction of MPATGM?

Please share your views on the above queries.

Yes, I agree on the matter of past history of the present ruling party.


Thanks in advance.

VSJ said...

Sir wrt to pegasus,

1) How does USA controls its spying agencies from snooping unauthorised on its own citizens?
And how it stops political spying against opposition?

2) Are there constitutional mechanisms in USA DOD to prevent coups?

3) Are interparliamentary oversight committees on intelligence ops "safe" especially when we have/may have parties that may end up signing certain MOUs with certain enemy nations when in power or even in opposition?

What stops a member of parliament/non cabinet person on committee from sharing the data to Pakistan either, as enthusiastically as "mountain of peace" Siachen was about to be shared?

I think my questions boil down to how to preserve our rights to privacy while not compromising intel ops even if it is against an actual poltician on enemy's payroll while not making it vendetta spying?

4) Was there any progress on Dhanush MGS? I believe no amount of range vs targeting debate is useful unless we consider the sheer edge provided MGS aka pit sitting towed vs shoot and scoot MGS.

5) Wrt to air war, China has lengthened runway, added multiple runways and built hardened blast shelters which mitigates altitude and payload restrictions somewhat. Now they are building second line bases in XMD and deep Tibet to base AWACS, Tankers and EW aircrafts. A field where we abominously lag behind with no sense of urgency.

How long will we retain edge this way?
Can't they offset our edge by simply keep feeding fighters into airbases to replace attrition? Something our 30 squadron forces can't do counting 2 front needs?

Thanks

Raghu said...

Hi,

The following link shows the image of the latest modification of the Kamov Ka-226T. It has considerable improvements to the control system, aerodynamics, gearbox, improved fuel system, enlarged fuel tank, visible structural modifications to nose, tail etc. This model is being displayed at MAKS-2021.

http://bastion-opk.ru/VVT/KA-226T_ALPINIST_210720_01.jpg


Regards,

Raghu

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- have the russians be able to develop an EOTS system & will it be comparable to the one on F 35?
2- KA226T climber version unveiled - certainly has a better looking nose than the earlier versions. Will this be signed during the upcoming Putin visit?
3- what sort of possible collaboration is possible between MIG & DRDO on TEDBEF given both have their design almost ready . why will ADA want to share the spoils?
4- anything interesting in MAKS 2021?

Pratap said...

Sir ji, the S-500 will be made available to foreign customers sooner or later. So why not order first before China and Turkey? At least the 2 new hypersonic missiles part of the S-500 should be ordered if they can be fired from our S-400.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

"And since what goes around eventually comes around, the present-day ruling dispensation during the UPA-2’s reign was equally disruptive & now it is being treated in the very same manner" ---It simply can not be the excuse of the present lot in opposition to do same antics for which the common citizen is getting fed up. This includes todays' incident in RS. They should have approach the Court of Law.

Thanks Prasun Da.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: VMT. This is what the DRDO press-release said:

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1737532&RegID=3&LID=1

As for engagement ranges, the target acquisition radar has a range of 80km, while the target illumination radar has a 50km-range & consequently the IAF-specific Akash-NG SAM will have a 40km-range, i.e. within the horizon & not beyond it, simply because the SAM will be reqd to engage hostile airborne combat aircraft that are cruising at an altitude of only 150 feet/200 feet above the ground. Consequently, those claiming 70km-range are delusional internet-fanboys. Same goes for the QR-SAM, whose range will be 22km & will be used only by the IA.

Meanwhile, looks like Taiwan will is well on its way to building its own SSKs without any international industrial bidding:

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4254213

DRDO's 'Anusandhan' A319 (ex-Air India) airborne testbed with structural modifications made by Airbus Military has been delivered to the DRDO’s Bengaluru-based Centre for Airborne Systems (CABS).

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E64xRXeVcAEiJ3v?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E64xQ09UcAQ7jT8?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E64xr9uXIAII0mp?format=jpg&name=large

To SUMANTA NAG: Why develop the TEDBF, which is required only after 2035? Won’t it be better to develop a carrier-based AMCA, whose land-based version for the IAF is expected to be available by 2035, if its rollout is scheduled for 2026? As for MPATGM, the videos clearly show its prototype rounds being fired via remote-control & not from any manportable launcher, meaning the ATGM’s performance parameters are still in the process of being optimised. Only after these have been established will the manportable launcher be developed. Hence, the complete MPATGM as a weapon system is unlikely to be available till 2023 at best. MPDMS is still another 5 years away from service-induction.

You can also rest assured that the common citizen in the Hindi heartland is certainly not fed-up with any of the antics played out within India’s Parliament. The non-Muslim communities within the Hindi heartland are too fragmented along caste faultlines & both the Central & UP State Govts are very much aware of it & are thus exploiting this to the hilt through their actions like IT Dept raids on the regional Hindi-language print-media. This reminds me of what goes on inside Pakistan, that is, the radicals/Jihadis give a damn what one says & writes in Pakistan’s English-language print/electronic/audio-visual media, but they get aroused & angry only if narratives against them appear in the Urdu-language media. The same now holds true in India as well, i.e. one can lash out against the ruling dispensations in any English-language communications medium to one’s heart’s content & there will be no official retribution, but such acts are considered intolerable when disseminated in Hindi language. In the ‘Bimaaru’ states within the Hindi heartland the natives of such states too are ‘Bimaaru’ & are anti-evolution & are thus easily manipulated through emotional rabble-rousing. The exact opposite holds true for non-Hindi-speaking states by & large. For, let us not forget that the Partition of India was due to the Urdu-speaking & Bengali-speaking populace from UP, Bihar & East Pakistan. But unlike the Urdu-speaking folks from Bihar & UP who have yet to admit the folly of their decisions of 1947, the Bengali-speaking Muslims did realise their mistake & succeeded in undoing the wrong in 1971 through the creation of Bangladesh. Hence, unless there is widespread social reform arising from within the grassroots of the Hindi heartland (like there was in southern India & Bengal since the late 19th century), these Hindi-speaking states will continue to remain ‘Bimaaru’ both materially & intellectually & they will turn will continue to drag the rest of India further down along a regressive path.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAGHU: The weakest link in the chain as far as the Ka-226T goes is the powerplant, i.e. Russia-origin engines have very low total technical service-life.

IA’s New Sniper Rifles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcLvUdxd-YU

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) At MAKS-2021 the KOEPS-75 IRST sensor for the Su-75 LTS was displayed. 2) As I have stated above, the Russia-origin engines for the Ka-226T have yet to prove themselves. In India’s case, the reqmt was always for a single-engined LUH & hence the Ka-226T never fitted the bill. 3) TEDBF’s design work began only earlier this year & detailed design will be completed only in the latter half of this decade. Then there are the tedious prototype development & flight-testing processes. Russia on the other hand has already mastered the processes reqd for developing navalised carrier-based MRCAs & has all the reqd data-points, unlike ADA. Hence, Mikoyan OKB will consume far less time to offer a navalised twin-engined M-MRCA/TEDBF. But the question that still remains is why should a brand-new TEDBF airframe be designed when a navalised variant of the AMCA is a far better option in terms of developmental timeframes? 4) Plenty, only if one knows what to look for & where. Next month’s FORCE magazine will carry my show-report of MAKS-2021.

To PRATAP: Just as the S-300V was never exported, so too the S-500 won’t be exported, rest assured.

To VSJ: 1, 2 & 3) Elementary: all the spying & law-enforcement agencies in the developed countries come under the ambit of law, i.e. they have come into being through parliamentary legislation & are like statutory bodies & hence are subjected to parliamentary oversight. In India’s case, the IB, R & AW etc etc did not get raised through Parliamentary legislation & instead were raised through executive orders in colonial fashion. That’s why while India’s IT regulations have made it a crime to use spyware of any kind, agencies like IB, R & AW, NTRO etc etc do not come under the ambit of India’s IT laws/regulations. Thus, India today finds herself in the peculiar position of her agencies violating her own laws & committing illegal acts. That’s precisely why no one in India’s officialdom can even use the term ‘Spyware’ & instead use the term ‘HLR Lookup Service’ when referring to such software-based spyware. Now do you see to what ridiculous levels matters have been reduced to & why the Govt of India & its Ministers can never admit to the use of any spyware??? 4) The Dhanush-52 MGS has never been subjected to any user-trials by anyone in India. 5) Not at all. India has several forward air bases & ALGs all along the LAC, whereas China has none. It only has dual-use airports that will take at least another five years to be fully equipped with HAS & ammo storage underground facilities. So far, only the fixed-based SAM sites have come up.

Con’td below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To fully understand what’s going on WRT NSO Pegasus, the following need to be borne in mind:

1) Such spyware, costing US$55 million as a complete package, can only be procured at the G-to-G level & that too under a strategic cooperation umbrella agreement under which both countries agree to share the gathered/obtained data for mutual benefit.

2) Consequently, it is perfectly fair to infer that NSO did have the capability of remote-gathering all the data-source particulars that was/is being obtained by Indian end-users like NTRO & IB. NSO itself has claimed that such a capability gives it the oversight reqd for preventing its mis-use.

3) This then brings us to the list of 50,000 phone numbers that one hears about nowadays. The ‘desi patrakaars’ have confused matters by speculating about the so-called ‘list of probable targets’. Actually this is a list of all those cellphones/phone numbers that were never subjected to forensic analysis & that’s why it cannot be said with certainty that Pegasus had penetrated such gadgets. I’m sure if all those 50,000 gadgets were to be subjected to forensic analysis, all of them will reveal some extent of penetration by Pegasus. In light of this, we can safely conclude that the origin of this ‘list’ is NSO itself, probably a conscientious whistleblower staff-member of NSO. And from past experience, I can state that such lists for backdoor remote-monitoring not only contain data on the ‘target’ but also log-in the exact time & date when penetration activity had commenced, plus the duration of such penetrations.

4) Since THE WIRE has been making revelations in 4 successive installments, the Govt of India should have waited after all such revelations have been made & then presented its rebuttals. Instead, the GoI has been issuing reactive rebuttals that violate all known laws of the physical sciences after each successive revelation, thereby further confusing matters. This only reveals the total intellectual bankruptcy & IT illiteracy of those that have been mis-using Pegasus in India. They either simply don’t understand how such technologies work, or are conversant with only portions of the diverse applications of such software. Here are some prominent revelations that only go on to prove that illegal usage of Pegasus was made inside India by as-yet unidentified user-agencies:

Hours after PM Narendra Modi acted to oust Alok Verma from his post as head of the CBI at midnight on October 23, 2018, an unidentified Indian agency known to be a user of Pegasus spyware made a note of three telephone numbers registered in his name. Along with Verma, the personal telephone numbers of his wife, daughter and son-in-law would eventually get placed on the list too, making it a total of 8 numbers from this one family. Also added to the list of numbers at the same time as Verma were two other senior CBI officials, Rakesh Asthana and A.K. Sharma. Both men were added on to the database about an hour after their former boss. Asthana was also removed from the CBI on the night of October 23, 2018.
https://thewire.in/government/pegasus-project-chronology-samajhiye-hours-after-midnight-coup-cbi-chiefs-phones-entered-surveillance-zone

At least 40 journalists who were either targets or potential targets for surveillance. Forensic analysis was conducted on the phones of seven journalists, of which five showed traces of a successful infection by Pegasus.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Phone numbers that have been used by Anil Ambani and one other official of the Reliance ADA Group were added in 2018 to the leaked list that was analysed by media partners of the Pegasus Project consortium. Jesudasan, considered a trouble-shooter for Ambani’s empire in matters of regulatory policy and the media, appeared on the list in 2018. The number for Dassault Aviation’s representative in India, Venkata Rao Posina, former Saab India head Inderjit Sial and Boeing India boss Pratyush Kumar all appear in the leaked database at different periods of time in 2018 and 2019. Sial is now the India and Asia-Pacific head of the US defence company Textron Systems. The number of Harmanjit Nagi, head of the French firm energy EDF, is also in the leaked database, a significant choice given that he was a member of Emmanuel Macron’s official delegation during the French president’s visit to India during this period. The confirmed targeting with Pegasus of former Indian Express associate editor Sushant Singh–who was extensively covering the Rafale controversy–also implies a certain focus on the defence sector and perhaps the aircraft deal, which was a political hot potato at the time. Singh was the reporter who broke the story of an Anil Ambani company helping to finance a film project involving Julie Gayet, the partner of former French President Francois Hollande. Sial, who quit Saab shortly after the MMRCA contract was awarded to Rafale in 2013, told The Wire that one of the reasons some government agency might have been interested in putting him under surveillance was because he had been in the running for the top job at HAL during the period his number figures in the leaked database.
https://thewire.in/rights/pegasus-project-anil-ambani-dassault-india-representative-boeing-india

https://thewire.in/rights/project-pegasus-list-of-names-uncovered-spyware-surveillance

https://science.thewire.in/the-sciences/paranoia-over-virus-research-may-have-brought-kang-cdc-officials-on-to-snoop-list/

https://www.nsogroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ReportBooklet.pdf

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, absolutely agree on your views regarding human nature, but any type of violent disruption in a place of debate which is being televised live is highly deplorable in nature. It will not simply go down well in the section of the society having civilised mindset.

So, as per the information you have provided,

a. can we assume, that test fire of MPDMS can commence from 2022-23 ?

b. What we can expect 'Anusandhan' test bed start test flying with its CABS Package (Radars etc.), and what's your views on DRDO 's negotiation with TVS for manufacturing of AWACS ? Is TVS led consortium is going to be the Industrial Partner for this Programme.

Kindly share your views on above queries.

Thanks in advance.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUMANTA NAG: MPDMS test-firings will commence in early 2023. Regarding AWACS, you must be referring to this:

A consortium of industries, spearheaded by TVS & Sons, is preparing to set up a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) that will enable the manufacture of AWACS. When this fructifies, India will join the group of elite nations, and emerge as the fifth country in the world that can produce indigenous AWACS. It is learnt from the Aerospace Industries Development Association of TN that discussions are on with Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO) to develop a vendor ecosystem for this investment-heavy proposal. TVS & Sons is taking the lead to set up the SPV unit. As this is an investment-intensive business, the Chennai-based group has been in talks with stakeholders such as the DRDO and the Tamil Nadu state government in this regard. Entering the defence business will also mark a significant diversification for the logistics player. This new direction would envisage an investment of over Rs.1,000 crore and with the Govt of India accelerating the ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ mission, it is being seen as a timely decision. When contacted, R Dinesh, Joint MD of TVS & Sons did not confirm the developments. Former DRDO Chairman S Christopher, whose dream has been to produce an aircraft in TN, is at the forefront of this project. “My aim is to get the TN Defence Corridor started as fast as possible,” said the IIT-M alumni. Creating an ancillary eco-system requires a long gestation project, involving huge investments. However, once the infrastructure is set, it can be used to execute smaller projects, making this a pioneering initiative to kick-start the entire defence corridor, he added. During Dr Christopher’s stint at the DRDO as Chief Designer & Programme Director, he was instrumental in giving the indigenous touch to the EMB-145 ‘Netra’ AEW & CS. As per a KPMG report, Data Patterns (a Chennai-based leader in indigenously developed electronic systems in the defence and aerospace domain), Mistral Solutions (Bengaluru), Astra Microwave (Hyderabad), TUNGA (Technology Upgradation of Naval, Ground & Air Systems, an OEM of new-age drone technologies based out of Chennai with its Centre of Excellence in Design Engineering located at IIT Madras research park) and Airworks (Hosur) are the five companies that will be involved in the prestigious project, while TVS & Sons will act as the nodal company driving the SPV.

And success at last: In a major development, the security forces at 1am on July 23, 2021 shot down a hexacopter carrying an IED weighing 5kg in border town Kanachak of Jammu. The length of the flying object is about 6.5 feet, having six wings, two antenna and four batteries (one battery damaged due to fire of bullet) tied with the rods of the drone. The capacity of the batteries of the drone is about 25,000MAH, which is written on the batteries. Thereafter when Bomb Disposal Squad when opened the sealed packet, found one-timer IED fitted in an iron box weighting about 3.5kg. The drone had a mark "CF PROP 30.2*9.9L" and the aerial distance spotted from WB Kana Chak was about 6.5Km. A QRT Team had been deployed near Akhnoor. This drone is an assembled one with some parts from China, others from Taiwan. Security forces have thus far recovered 16 AK-47 rifles, 3 M4 carbines, 34 pistols, 15 grenades, 18 IEDs & Rs.4 lakh cash in the last 1.5 years sent via drone sorties.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZQbDIcBg9g
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lj_RTfbJqmk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJtLi5CSZng
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4RTzkXFEyY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iefzKnGkwY0

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, thanks for the reply,

A. Can the consortium led by TVS & Sons become the 'Industrial Partner' for manufacturing of DRDO's ongoing A - 319/321 based AEW & CS / AWACS Programme in future ?

B. Interesting Turn in Afghan Civil War, US launched Air Strikes against Taliban , and Turkey asks Taliban to end 'Occupation' following their warning to Turkish Forces controlling Kabul Airport.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/us-launches-air-strikes-in-aid-of-embattled-afghan-forces/articleshow/84675814.cms

https://in.news.yahoo.com/turkeys-erdogan-says-taliban-end-112258606.html

What will be the effect coupled with ANA's plan to source arms and technical support for their Soviet Origin war assets form India ?

Please share your views .

Thanks in advance.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Plus Protest against water shortage erupts in Iran.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/watch/violence-escalates-in-water-shortage-protests-in-iran-s-khuzestan/vi-AAMtzFz?ocid=msedgntp

Satya said...

Prasun da, posting a comment after along time, hope you are doing fine.

1) Will the DRDO and Rolls Royce 100 KN JV engine be ready before Tejas MWF enters production around 2029-2030?

2) Why are our military decision makers making a fool of themselves by developing an all new TEDBF for which total orders won't exceed 50-60 units? When even civilians like us have the common sense to realise that naval AMCA would be more advanced and economically viable?

3) Why does the deal for truck mounted howitzer keep getting delayed? Will it be a version of Dhanush or Kalyani ulf mounted on 4×4? Or imported from abroad?

4) In a thread on S-400 you had said that India will acquire only the 380 km version of S-400 and later Russia will supply 77-N6-N and 77-N6-1 to India. That's why India went for S-400 instead of THAAD. But now you are saying that Russia will not export the S-500. So did Russia went back in its promise?

5) Is there a provision to add more VLS cells for Barak-8 and Brahmos on the P-15 and P-15B class of destroyers? The UK has increased the number of SAMs on its Type 45 destroyers from 48 to 72. The P-15 and P-15B only carry 32 missiles in comparison.

6) Is DRDO working on any hypersonic glide vehicle project? A concept called HGV-202F was show by a private company. What is the development status of that?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUMANTA NAG: 1) Not an industrial partner, but the prime industrial contractor, because the work effort does not involve any manufacturing of any platform by such companies, but has more to do with final-assembly, installation & integration of the mission avionics suite. 2) None of the ‘desi’ TV channels are covering that incident. 3) Without such material support, the Afghan military forces will be severely handicapped.

To SATYA: 1) To the best of my knowledge, no such JV exists. 2) Very soon it will dawn upon the MoD that while budgets for making scale-models for TEDBF are acceptable, that reqd for developing the TEDBF at the same time as the MWF & AMCA Mk.1 will be cost-prohibitive. 3) The reqmt is for a 155mm/52-cal MGS & hence Kalyani Group’s 155mm/39-cal MGS does not meet the IA’s GSQRs. Since the towed ATAGS is being procured, logic then dictates that an MGS version of the ATAGS be developed as well. 4) S-500 is an all-new SAM system with different sub-systems like radars, battle management system etc etc, but its components like 77-N6-N and 77-N6-1 missile-rounds can always be integrated with the S-400 system. 5) 32 Barak-8s in ready-=to-fire configuration plus another 32 as reloads. Total of 64 Barak-8s per P-15A/P-15B DDG. 6) No.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Azad Kashmir Election Rigging Plan Exposed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OF9UDvMWif0

Has the US Abandoned India in Afghanistan?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tb8hMrqBXP4

Vodafone, Cairn & Devas Arbitration Cases Explained:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgPpOwoGMvo

AI & Autonomous Weapons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpwHszy7bMk

India’s Tibet Policy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EP-XL3qtF8A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6imr-X14K0&t=12s (fantastic & realistic summation by Prof. P Stobdan).

Xi Jinping in TAR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HpdMmzeFSg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtkZnRTGJxo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFRny66vt50

Judging by the ordinary B.737 (as opposed to a VVIP configured aircraft) used by Xi Jinping to travel to Nyingchi & possibly to Lhasa, it would appear that the visits were kept confidential till the last minute for security reasons, & the crowds were all staged only for show.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

VMT, Prasun Da, thanks for your reply, it was a typo error for me, describing TVS led consortium as 'Industrial Partner' rather 'Prime Industrial Contractor'.

A. How long it may take, for the test bed start flying with the mission avionics ? When the projects can be ready with the service induction , End of this Decade ? or earlier ?


B. The US conducted the air strikes which killed Taliban militia men to desist Taliban taking control of the US weapon.
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/us-launches-airstrikes-to-hit-taliban-seized-equipment-in-kandahar-us-official20210723143337/

Does it mean the US makes it ensure that the present regime does not lose its control on Kabul, and Taliban may only remain a regional power only Afghan politics ? So, in near future there may be more such strikes may follow, after SOS from ANA. Also, it means that the US and NATO reduced their footprint militarily, but keeping a tab on the situation, and international politics being played in the court yard ?

Taliban accuses them(USA) violating the Doha Peace Agreement.

https://www.dw.com/en/taliban-accuses-us-of-violating-doha-peace-agreement/a-53023482

Kindly share your views.

Thanks in advance.

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Much as you might dislike the ham handed approch of this Government, your very perceptive post about the pressures exerted on the Dainik Bhaskar group reveal that the Union Government & its agencies don't give a fart about the opinion of either the liberals, the media or the political opposition since they have a majority & this quote reveals the common non-english speaking mindset in India's interiors

"Why so much noise about Pegasus spying of phone tapping? Like thieves never want CCTV in the society. Same way politicians never want phone tapping in the country. Where 90% indian politicians are dishonest, corrupt, involved with some sort of illegal business, extortion, and many other illegal activities even many are involved in anti-national activities like religious riots.
In this circumstances the phone tapping of suspected people are very much required to save the nation. The job of oppositions in india can not be only spread lies ?
conspiracy? propoganda? criminality ? hate speeches? government must bring the law and make phone tapping legal in this country in the interest of the nation."

A typical middle class approach & and this is the opinion of the population at large. The silly opposition & libr-aandu think that targeting BJP & PM Modi for something that previous governments have admittedly done such as the speech by then PM MMS in parliament acknowledged & where the people or citizens dont trust or believe anybody from their neighbours to any NETA or bureaucracy, the kind Of robust DENIAL issued by the Union Government only serves to display it as a Security Conscious, Stable and Secure Govt. Congis, general opposition, only makes the libr-aandus fall flat on their faces.

It doesn't believe de well for India, but the Union Government won't lose elections due to this. However rising prices, inflation, joblessness, etc. alongwith the dismal economic situation will certainly affect the BJP govt heading for elections now or later

KIDDO said...

Hi Prasun
1) Question about the latest Akash NG test - It seems from the pictures that the Radar/CP and Missile cannisters are all mounted on the same vehicle. Is this the final configuration of the system - no separate Radar vehicles and TELs? And how many rounds can such a vehicle carry if the Radar and CP is integrated in the TEL?

2) Any plans of upgrading the Delhi Class destroyers to carry MRSAM and Brahmos? Similarly can the Talwar Class & Shivalik Class be upgraded to replace the 3S90 launchers with MRSAM (considering that all these ships have the Russian Fregat Radar is it possible to integrate the Israeli SAMs on them?)

3)Wanted to get your thoughts on the Nyngchi-Lhasa Hi-speed rail line. Yes it is great for quick transport of troops, weapons, equipment etc but the videos all show long stretches of the line comprising huge bridges which travel along the wide Tibetan river valleys. Doesnt that make the line extremely vulnerable during wartime. Meaning it appears like an asset which can be destroyed at multiple points fairly easily by air and missile strikes and would be very difficult to repair/restore quickly. Is it really something which could play a substantial role during wartime?

Thanks and Best Regards

Raghu said...

Hi Prasun,

In the link you provided regd. US abandonment of India in Afghanistan, how credible is Gen. Tariq Khan's views? He views India's involvement in Afghanistan in terms of support to separatists in Baluchistan and support to terrorists in Pakistan. Seems odd that Indian developmental activities are completely ignored.

How can the views of Russia, US, China, Pakistan, India and CAR countries be reconciled to bring peace to Afghanistan?

Regards,

Raghu

Raghu said...

Hi

Going by the posts in the below link, it looks as if the Taliban too are suffering heavy losses and the media reports of their ascendency may not be entirely accurate

https://mobile.twitter.com/FawadAman2

Regards

Raghu

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- Blinken sudden vist, Russia,tjik,Uzbek drills near afgham border, all co-ordinated moves? is Iran playing along India? what to expect of these events
2- From where are the US jets bombing in Afghanistan?
3- read somewhere that russia is not keen to entertain India in their talks on afghanstan's future- which includes russia,afghans, china,iran & the pakis

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

Why is the Indian Air Force planning to purchase more HAMMER guided munition instead of cruise missiles like SCALP? These guided munitions like HAMMER has a short range and the aircraft delivering it will have to climb to a very high altitude in order to deliver them.

Thanks,
VIKRAM

Anonymous said...

sir,

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6Y6d2QCvsE&t=11s i can 4 costal surveillance radar on each direction other than the main s band radar. any idea why this decision ha been taken? is it to track low flying objects??

2. i remember you telling there was a sabotage in the devas multimedia deal just like aw101. cud the explain it plz.

thank you
Yogesh

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Prof. Stobdan downplays the hyped rivalry between India and China. But how far it is justified!!! A country which is taking our land inch by inch is not our jani dushman!!! Difficult to digest. I'm ignorant although to understand the logic behind it.

Further China is planning to recruit Tibetan youths into PLA. Then the question is Will they be loyal towards China or backstab PLA? Or China will be able to buy them with money and giving other privileges? In case Tibetans are loyal to PLA, then how will SFF fair against PLA in short limited war? Will it be Tibetans vs Tibetans!!!

Please enlighten to all of us.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUMANTA NAG: A) Mission avionics installation work will take 6 months per platform, followed by another 6 months of airworthiness-related flight-tests. This is because all such work had already been undertaken for the 3 EMB-145Is & consequently all the reqd data-points exist. B) Here are the details of the air-strikes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsoQbAqJJDw

It seems the US aircraft flew out of Bahrain or the UAE, then refuelled in Oman & then proceeded to Kandahar by overflying Pakistani airspace & that explains why the US has not yet revealed full details of the air-strikes. But anyone using common-sense will be able to figure that out, since Iran will confer air transit rights to any US military aircraft. This also explains why two US Navy carrier battle-groups had assembled in the northern Arabian Sea, i.e. coercive compellance to force Pakistan into granting air-transit permission.

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) The visit was announced a few days ago, nothing sudden or unexpected about it. 2) It seems the US aircraft flew out of Bahrain or the UAE, then refuelled in Oman & then proceeded to Kandahar by overflying Pakistani airspace & that explains why the US has not yet revealed full details of the air-strikes. But anyone using common-sense will be able to figure that out, since Iran will confer air transit rights to any US military aircraft. This also explains why two US Navy carrier battle-groups had assembled in the northern Arabian Sea, i.e. coercive compellance to force Pakistan into granting air-transit permission. 3) Not quite, it is FAKE NEWS or needless surmising.

To VIKRAM GUHA: The principal advantage of the HAMMER family of PGMs is that they are rocket-powered & are not gliding PGMs. Hence, when it comes to striking targets at high-altitude areas, such rocket-propelled PGMs or even turbojet-powered PGMs have an exceptionally high-degree of hit-accuracy. In addition, unlike SCALP, the HAMMER comes with a variety of optional terminal guidance kits that can just be scrweed on to the main body of the PGM, i.e. TV-guided, laser-guided & IR-guided sensors + GPS navigation.

To YOGESH: 1) Those 2 are marine navigation radars supplied by CONSILIUM of Sweden. 2) Devas Multimedia had come up with a unique business plan with latest technological innovations & hence ISRO had decided to go along with it. But then came the arseholes from TIMESNow TV channel (who are now with Republic World TV channel) who insisted, without any basis, that since the deal was not tendered out & no competitive evaluations were conducted, ISRO had engaged in corruption (this despite the former DRDO Chief Dr V S Arunachalam being involved with Devas). It was like claiming that since only the NPOL had developed the APSOH & HUMSA family of active/passive sonars, the Indian Navy had engaged in corrupt practices in ordering such sonars & the IN instead should have issued tenders/RFPs to Indian industrial entities to develop similar sonars & then subject all of them to a competitive bidding process!!!

Similarly, when it came to the AgustaWestland AW-101, it was known from the outset that the AW-101 will win the competition bbecause it was a three-engined helicopter competing against twin-enbgined helicopters. Laws of physics dictate that a three-engined helicopter will have a greater MTOW, a superior rate of climb, a higher cruise speed & far greater survivability in case of engine failure—all important parameters for VVIP transportation that can never be compromised by selecting a twin-engined helicopter solution. But all this never dawned upon those BJP party-members who were vociferously alleging that corrupt practices were followed in selecting the AW-101. Perhaps such folks lack sound common-sense, or they do not respect the laws of physics & mathematics.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KIDDO: Not quite, i.e. one cannot violate the laws of physics. Hence the components & deployment architecture of the Akash-NG will be similar to that of the IA’s QR-SAM, as shown here:

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-210JhH2qbOU/WKtPcMbE9CI/AAAAAAAAMew/i2PxKogE9-gkfIn_CJljSdsikmPVAy5qQCLcB/s1600/QR-SAM%2BChart.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MGcmSKQcj40/XPcbuhcIrII/AAAAAAAARUY/GS8T3gSQf5grAKmTelBif23uszRBPfa8ACLcBGAs/s1600/QR-SAM%2BDeployment.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-M1BUFCyN7DI/WKtThfBnD-I/AAAAAAAAMfQ/u5zqdMwaMR46EC88kKM-pg-8VsM9EA9DACLcB/s1600/QR-SAM%2BBMFR.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oa_iJMCpmUQ/WKtRyIA-3FI/AAAAAAAAMfE/SnrdxnepLG8W42zdj1ITzR_9-kEmpf4NwCLcB/s1600/QR-SAM%2BADTCR.jpg

2) Technically, it is possible, but such mid-life upgrades will take at least 3 years per vessel to be undertaken. 3) Yes, the roadways & railways crisscrossing TAR do greatly troop transportation & logictics maiuntenance, but they can easily be interdicted &disrupted through offensive airpower. Secondly, even if quicker deployment of the PLAGF takes place, it will still take weeks for the plains-based troops to acclimatise before venturing into high-altitude areas. Lastly & most importantly, all roads starting from TAR & approaching the Himalayan Massif from the West to the East while entering India-controlled territory will be forced to become narrow roads along the bottom of river-valleys, i.e. only a single line of entry, which again can be interdicted & destroyed with ease through both airpower & tube/rocket artillery fire-assaults launched by the IA from dominating positions along the hills & ridgelines—which wasn’t done back in 1962 & that’s why India had then lost out to China.

To RAGHU: That is nowadays the standard Pakistani narrative that was again reiterated in this interview yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cVgm_dcqGM

Total collective reconciliation of the views/objectives of the various regional stakeholders is almost ruled out, since each of them have different objectives. The heavy weightlifting will therefore have to be done by India, Iran & Russia. The losses suffered by Afghan security forces are indeed of a temporary nature, primarily due to the US decision to withdraw all 16,000 private contractors, which in turn had severely downgraded the battlefield logistics capacities of the Afghan Army & Air Force. Here is a compendium of the recent material losses suffered by them.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/06/disaster-at-hand-documenting-afghan.html

Zhengzhou Flooding in China: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llogBNfo0Q0

President Xi Jinping’s Proximate Security Detail:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6_mJO2XoAMW16V?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6_mMgfWQAARw7d?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Raytheon’s Coyote Block-3 Anti-Drone Effector:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6--w2vWUAAIm21?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6--z3pWEAQyO9c?format=jpg&name=large

Interesting primer on China’s Gains in Industral Automation:

https://chinapower.csis.org/china-intelligent-automation/

Primer on Directed-Energy Weapons: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11882

Su-75 Rivetting: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E67EMR4XoAku1_7?format=jpg&name=large

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EWW6g_YsRw

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Looks like riveting is still not on par with Rafale

Ravi said...

Prasun, I admire your never-ending efforts to talk rationally about larger issues of Indian higher defense organization. I'm guessing I'm about 30 years older than you, and have long stopped expecting any rationality from GOI on anything to do with defense.

Keep at it: you must lead the way for the next generation. I hope they will grow up thinking and acting rationally.