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Monday, June 6, 2011

Has The China-Pakistan Combine Checkmated India At Both Strategic & Operational Levels Along The Northern Front?








36 comments:

rahulka said...

Prasun, JED Magazine May issue talks about Virgilius..

Elettronica S.p.A. (Rome, Italy) is
completing the development and testing
of Virgilius, a new airborne EW system
designed to provide self- and mutual
protection. The result of company-funded
research and development efforts, the
system is fully digital, network-capable,
and modular and provides integrated
electronic support measures (ESM) and
electronic attack. Elettronica told JED
that Virgilius, which can be carried internally
or in external pods, will provide
threat awareness, surveillance and jamming.
All functions are performed in a
single, software-defined unit, providing
for a lighter-weight and less power-hungry
system, according to the company.
It expects Virgilius to be ready for series
production for combat aircraft applications
from the first quarter of 2012.


So it can't be onboard on Mig-29.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The internally-mounted version of Virgilius (with distributed AESA apertures) has been flying with the Eurofighter EF-2000 since 2005. What will be available from 2012 will be the pod-mounted version. The internal elements of the Virgilius can be seen at: http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/04/aspjs-developed-for-tejas-mk1-mig-29upg.html

RAVI said...

Don't you think Spending 400 million $ per aircraft is waste of money....wen compared to other C-17 deals like, of AUS its price is just HALF(190 miliion$) of current price....and even in C-130J UAE bought 12(that deal also included all the spares, life time cost etc etc...) of these aircraft for 1.3 billion dollars...but India bought only 6 of for the same price why is this huge difference....and dont you think something fishy about these contracts...i suspect there is some kickback in these contracts...

Anonymous said...

@Ravi,
Kickbacks are one of the causes for unreasonable escalation of prices of all defense arms and eqps sold to India. In the name of "defense", unscrupulous elements are emptying the national coffers. Corruption has become a way of life in India.

nitin said...

Hello Sir,

Can you please update us on the status of the tender LUH and Attack helis? Its was supposed to be announced in may?

regards
nitin

Anonymous said...

Prasunda, will AGNI-V be MIRV?

flanker143 said...

i was talking about the mlu for mk2...

its not that kaveri wud be available or not.....i was talking about whether IAF will accept it or not ?? bcoz i don't think kaveri-snecma engine will be able to out perform fe414in56....coz they wud never be able to reach the 120kn thrust bench mark set by the american engine...

seriously i do feel that IAF will accept an engine with lesser thrust that too at mlu !!!

SKINS said...

Prasun sir i have some lingering doubts about kaveri engines if kaveri is successful and is producing a dry thrust of 52 kn why is IAF issuing tenders for engines of older aircrafts like jaguar whose engines should be much less advanced than kaveri?
And for Kaveri -Snecma engine if they plan to use eco core (Gas generator+combustion chamber+turbine) of eco (M88) what will be the original kaveri content in it and will the snecma provide technology to GTRE for making that core in India from raw materials ?
I also need clarification on AL-31 FP engines produced at HAl Koratpur Russians supplied all the machines off the shelf to HAL and even the raw materials to make the engine then what will country gain from such a deal when every thing is made here from everything supplied by Russians?
I would also like to ask about the ingenious content in Arjun mk2 drdo claimed that it would be 90% indeginious but i red in your blog that mk2 will have very high percentage of foreign components these reports are very conflicting pls clear them
I heard that ASL has succeeded in making large composite rocket motors any thing more on it?
Any significant update on Indian cryogenic engine?
I am very sorry for asking so many questions but i am very eager to know about these for a long time
Thanks
Abhishek

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Ravi@9.09AM & Anon@3.48PM: Spending US$400 million per imported aircraft will be a waste of money only if the buyer country has the ability to build similar aircraft by indigenous means. Now, as you’re well aware, this is next to impossible since no one in India has the capability of developing and producing such strategic airlifters. Only countries like China today can design such an aircraft within a four-year period and begin producing it within another two years. Consequently, India has no choice but to import airlifters like the C-17A Globemaster III. The price differences arise due to the cost escalation factors and backlog of current orderbooks. There’s no hanky-panky at all. Nor is there anything fishy, since this deal is being processed through FMS channels, which means it is a govt-to-govt contract whose entire commercial/financial documentation will be available with the US Library of Congress and be made available to anyone under the US Freedom of Information Act. This is the ultimate as far as transparency goes. There is no other arrangement in the world which is as transparent as a FMS sale.

To Nitin: As far as the LUH goes, it is a foregone conclusion that just like the Pakistan Army, the Indian Army and IAF too will procure 197 AS.350C3 Fennecs from Eurocopter. That is not the problem. The problem will arise with the 187 single-engined LUHs that HAL is supposed to design and develop. Why? Because, firstly, no other country in the world practices the kind of illogic that India does, i.e. splitting the requirement for a single helicopter-type between two models: the 2.8-tonne Fennec and the 3-tonne LUH derived from the Dhruv ALH. Secondly, HAL ought to have set its sights on developing a 2-tonne LUH (like the Chinese have done), instead of a 3-tonne machine. And lastly, the MoD should have decided to re-engine the existing SA.316B Alouette III/Chetaks and SA.315B Lama/Cheetahs with the Shakti/Ardiden 1H engines, thereby prolonging their technical service lives by another 15 years (these machines could later be offloaded to either the BSF or the National Disaster Management Authority as the new LUHs start arriving). But I guess some vested interests are hell-bent upon prematurely retiring the Chetaks and Cheetahs.
As for attack helicopters, even if the competition is brought to closure, it won’t result, I’m afraid, in any meaningful gains for the Indian Army’s anti-armour war-waging capabilities simply because the MoD will likely perpetuate the discredited policy of allowing the IAF to operate and control such attack helicopter assets.

To Anon@4.56PM: Of course the Agni-5 and perhaps even the Agni-3 will have MIRVs.

To flanker143: Oh boy! The MLU for Tejas Mk2 will be due only by 2028. The Kaveri that you’ve seen thus far is only the basic R & D version developed by scientists. It is not a production-engineered configuration. And why should the IAF require a turbofan with 120kN thrust, a rating that is required only for heavier aircraft like the Super Hornet and not for the lighter Tejas Mk2? FRor the Tejas Mk2, a turbofan thrust rating of 98-100kN will more than suffice. Only if the IAF were to go for the Super Hornet IN instead of the Rafale would there have been a distinct reqmt for a F414-400EPE with 120kN thrust rating.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SKINS/Abhishek: As I’ve explained above, the Kaveri is not yet a production-engineered turbofan, but is still just a technology demonstrator. For the Jaguar IS re-engining programme, the IAF wants a proven, in-production turbofan. The production-standard Kaveri will be far cry from what we’ve all seen thus far. I’m pretty sure that SNECMA Moteurs will give India the production know-how for the eco-core, but I’m not all sure whether there will emerge any Indian industrial entity that can invest in such production technologies and absorb the production know-how, especially if you were to go by what has been happening with the licenced-production of the Scorpene SSKs. As for the AL-31FP turbofans, the raw materials and machining equipment, especially for single-crystal turbine blades, have come from Russia, as have the all the engine cores. What does India gain from all this? At least the production know-how and the ability to ramp-up production levels should the need arise meeting increased product support reqmts. Regarding the DRDO, I beg to differ with the DRDO’s claims of achieving 90% indigenisation rates with even the Arjun Mk1 MBT, leave alone the Mk2. Maybe the DRDO has its own unique accounting system which only it understands and can make sense of. On the Arjun Mk2 the indigenisation level MAY reach the 70% level as 80% of the 1,500hp Cummins engine will be built from scratch by Cummins India. But the fire-control optronics and all components of gun-control system will still be imported for the Mk2, since no Indian industrial entity is as yet capable of producing high-end optronics. Even till this day India has to import hand-held thermal imagers and IR binoculars. It is for this reason that I’ve stated that for a country in which industrial production/manufacturing accounts for only 15% of the annual GDP, achieving significant degrees of self-reliance in military-industrial R & D/production will always remain a pipe-dream.
The ASL-developed large composite rocket motors and rocket fuel tanks are already on the Agni-3, Agni-A2+ and will also be on the Agni-5.

Anonymous said...

Prasun ,
It will nice put some light on corruption , behind scenes episodes in T-90 saga . Some points that i remember:-
1.In January 1999, with former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda accused the BJP-led government pursuing the T-90S deal in a covert manner. Declining to reveal the identity of the middlemen arms merchants whom he alleged were forcing the government to buy the T-90S, Gowda claimed that an inquiry would reveal the truth.

Anonymous said...

2. Promexport even launched a major public relations offensive, inviting journalists for exclusive interviews at five-star hotels, showing confidential documents (including part of a Defence Ministry file) that favoured their T-72S and indicated that the T-72S would cost $US 705,000 (Rs 3 crore) less than the T-90S. Prom-Export also claimed that the T-90s hadn't been extensively tested in the Indian climate extremes. Rosvoorouzhenie simply touted that it's tanks were better.

Anonymous said...

3. In 2006, inducted T-90 tank just over three years ago, the Army's fleet of Russian-built T-90s have run into serious trouble. The problems were critical flaws in its fire control system, availability of ammunition and, what military officers said, was avoidable overuse during training exercises, rendering many tanks in need of overhaul.

Anonymous said...

4. The problem with full Russian technology transfer, however, which held up production at Avadi till 2009. Then a disaster was celebrated by Defense ministry for production of 10 license built tank on 24 August 2009. No answer why early production ???

Anonymous said...

5. The price negotiation committee had forced Indian Army to evaluate the T-90S in Indian conditions. Subsequently T-90S was found insuitable for desert conditions, but Indian Army still went ahead and recommended the purchase of T-90S.

Anonymous said...

6. T-90S torsion bar problems were in spotlight during the Exercise Ashwamedha conducted by Indian Army in May 2007.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@2.01AM: FYI I had already touched upon this issue in my previous blog at: http://trishulgroup.blogspot.com/2009/03/new-untouchables.html
The T-72S versus the T-90S debate was scandalous for only 1 reason: the Kremlin (during Boris Yeltsin’s time) did not intercede in the slugfest between Rosoboronexport and Promexport. It was up to Moscow to designate either of the two as the official weapons promoter in India on behalf of the Russian Govt. And when it did, it did so in favour of Rosoboronexport State Corp, which was offering the T-90S. The Indian Army shied away from the T-72S for one very simple reason: the DRDO at that time was developing the T-72CIA which was equal to the T-72S in terms of performance. Consequently, there was no justification from a techno-economic matrix standpoint, for selecting the T-72S. I had the opportunity to see at close hand (in April 2000 during the DSA 2000 expo in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia) one of the two T-90S MBTs that were subjected to in-country trials in India, and also closely followed the trials of both the T-90S and T-84 MBT in Malaysia in the same year. After viewing several videographs of the Indian field trials it emerged that the problem per se was not with the T-90S, but with its employment during daytime in the Thar Desert. Even the Arjun Mk1 MBT has encountered similar problems. Having said that, any MBT in the world will have problems during daytime when operating in such an unforgiving environment. In the Thar and Cholistan Deserts the climate is such that one cannot wage armoured manoeuvre warfare during daytime, period. All operations will be conducted by both sides from dusk till dawn (just as it was in Longewala in December 1971). During daytime, use will be made of field artillery fire-assaults and close air support to engage in decapitating attrition warfare. At nighttime the average target acquisition distance will not be more than 800 metres due to undulating terrain features. Up north in the Punjab, the land is indeed flat, but this does not mean one can detect targets out to great distances. The area is both built-up and agrarian in nature with standing crops. Consequently, the target acquisition distance for any MBT is no more than 700 metres during daytime and night. Secondly, the dense network of irrigation canals and ditch-cum-bunds is spread throughout Punjab and is virtually impossible to overcome as this area is defended in-depth by Pakistan. Therefore, this area is the least conducive for conducting armoured manoeuvre warfare. The only viable area lies north of the Shakargarh Bulge in the Poonch-Rajouri sector area and around Chhamb but there again, it is a narrow salient where terrain advantages can be neutralised by superior and concentrated field artillery fire-assaults. Consequently, the only area where armoured manoeuvre warfare can be waged in depth is in the Thar and Cholistan Deserts, provided it is conducted from dusk to dawn.
Regarding the ammunition malfunctions, the problem was with the OFB-made 125mm FSAPDS rounds, and not with Russian and Israeli rounds. Regarding the technology-transfer issue it has to be noted that no country will transfer what it has developed with great pain, to another country. This is a reality that any importing country has to live with. The situation is different only when two potential customers team up to carry out joint R & D work from the very inception.

SKINS said...

thank you very much sir i will not probably find any other blog giving such prompt reply s

RAVI said...

Sir can u just list the Foreign contract (related to defence) which u feel are tainted or corrupt...so that we can forward it MOD, anna hazare team, to all media, so that we can start a online campaign...

I feel India is the only country where induct foreign when home grown products are on the verge of completion
For example

T90 for Arjun
Eurocpter Fennec for LUH
MRSAM for Akash
Heavy Attack Helo for LCH
and many more...!!!

Sir u have great knowledge about other deals also, so plz throw sum light on this also...

Anonymous said...

Prasun, We have been hearing for some time of tests on the GSLV III, how its tests are all satisfactory. Why then haven't they set a date for an actual test yet?.

Can you shed some light on how advanced the GSLV development is?

flanker143 said...

well actually what i wanted to ask from the start was that whether the engine on the mk2 will be having a 120kn thrust or not because , and why do i feel that a 100kn engine is not enough because even with full int fuel and just a to a payload mk2 will not have twr greater then 1....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Ravi: All the deals you've highlighted were struck precisely because indigenous alternatives were not available when they were reqd most. Rather than going on witch-hunts over corrupt entities, one ought to start a crusade aimed at defining once and for all what exactly one means by 'indigenisation', for I personally believe that Indians at large have been hoodwinked over the past few decades into believing that locally-built weapons are by and large indigenous. And such hoodwinking won't disappear (and neither will corruption) just because someone is fasting on to death or someone else thinks the Lokpaal is the ultimate antitode to corruption. Corruption is a consequence of an attitude of the mind and no Lokpaal on earth will be able to bring out attitudnal changes.

To Anon@6.18PM: Why the delays in testing GSLV Mk3? As the Minister for Science & Technology said yesterday, "in India, the total investment in research and development is 0.8 per cent of the GDP and out of that, the private sector contributes only 20 per cent". Increase the figures and you will see much better results.

To flanker143: The airframe of the Tejas Mk2 will not be certified to host a 120kN thrust turbofan. If you want to have 120kN thrust levels, then you'll be reqd to redesign the airframe. Is it possible? Yes, over another decade. Is it desirable? No.

Anonymous said...

hey whats u r view on this...i think this one is sum insider commenting LIVEFIST blog

" Guys plz leave it to the people who sit and decide... there are many things which involve in upgrade...as many of them are not aware that the price of upgrade is more than price of new aircraft...it is just not easy buying off the shelf new aircraft...there needs to be hell of lot of investment in infrastructure, life cycle cost, training, attached armaments, data link receivers and many more...with the present upgrade border secure mission can be done with just 2 mirages against current 6...so logically the upgrade Multiply's Current 51 mirages to 153...that is why people are bargaining hard out there...with upgraded configuration it will be very potent platform for SEAD, strike mission...easing work for Su 30mki...Where as mig 21s and 29s will look after interdiction and Mig-27 and jags for CAS job and Su 3omki for completely concentrating on PLAAF..."

Dont u feel he sum insider....

Anonymous said...

Parsun , some news confirms Turkish upgraded pak F-16s has won 3-0 against RAF Typhoon in execise in AA combat.

SSG said...

Prasun, any news on the Snecma-GTRE JV for Kaveri K10 ? First it was that the French will bring the Eco core and mate with the Kaveri cold section. Now it is claimed that only the metallurgy expertise will be bought and the original Kaveri core will be forged with the French material.

Anonymous said...

Says PKS: Corruption is a consequence of an attitude of the mind and no Lokpaal on earth will be able to bring out attitudnal changes.

Meaning: sit back and do nothing.

my opinion: what can you expect from Prasun.

-Baba Ramdev

...said said...

Dear Prasun, why are they testing Prithvi again and again when it hardly has a role in the Indian forces. And just to confirm, this Prithvi-II is liquid-fuelled isn't it?
thanks in advance.
MAK

Anonymous said...

Hi.....good to read your articles in the latest Force magazine........specially on Eurofighter and Rafale......you seem to be inclined towards the Eurofighter, what ????????????

Anonymous said...

Hi.....good to read your articles in the latest Force magazine........specially on Eurofighter and Rafale......you seem to be inclined towards the Eurofighter, what ????????????

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@11.26AM: I've always believed that since a country like India has acquired the core technological expertise to design and develop its own open-architecture weapons delivery-sum-navigation and attack system (as the DRDO has done for the Tejas Mk1 and Su-30MKI), then this very expertise can be put to good use to undertake avionics retrofits of existing combat aircraft like the MiG-27M and Mirage 2000H/TH. There is simply no need to award such a contract to Dassault/THALES. A joint industrial alliance comprising HAL and Israel Aircraft Industries can do much better at only one-third the cost.

To Anon@2.20PM: That is utter rubbish since a combat aircraft equipped with IRST sensor (as in the Eurofighter EF-2000) undoubtedly has the upper hand in within-visual-range air combat against a combat aircraft with an IRST sensor (as in the F-16).

To SSG: The core of the definitive Kaveri K-10 turbofan will host an engine core designed and fabricated by SNECMA Moteurs. In course of time, depending on the size of orders placed for the K-10, SNECMA Moteurs may find it financially viable to allow HAL to produce the engine cores in-country.

To Anon@5:21PM: Who said sit back and do nothing? By all means try to bring about attitudnal changes. But not by staging nautankis and fasts since fasting was always a discredited process that neither united the people in pre-independence India nor did it win independence for India.

To Anon@6.55PM: The conventionally armed Prithvi-2 surface-to-surface battlefield support missile indeed has a vital role to play and that's why the Indian Army's two Field Artillery Divisions (each of which contains a Prithvi Missile Group) conduct launch profiency drills twice a year involving the Prithvi.

To Anon@7.23PM: I have long ago made my preference known in favour of the F/A-18IN Super Hornet. Neither the Rafale nor the Eurofighter EF-2000 are well-suited for the IAF (this being my personal opinion) especially if the IAF is placing a premium on 'hot-rod dogfighters'. Why? Because the days of close-in air combat/dogfights ended way back in 1982 (after the IDF-AF successfully knocked out the Syrian Air Force over the Bekaa Valley with Python-3s and AIM-9Ls). If the IAF expects to engage in dogfights in future, then it will be a case of waging tomorrow's air campaigns with the strategies and tactics of yesteryears. The future belongs to network-centric warfighting concepts and strategems, not platform-centric.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@6.55PM: Prithvi in all its manifestations is a dead dog that continues to be flogged by the DRDO for meaningless glory. You can read more about it at: http://forcenewsmagazine.blogspot.com/2011/04/games-drdo-plays.html

Anonymous said...

i beg to partially disagree with prasun on corruption (though your blog is completely another subject), it is the fear factor responsible. no fear of getting caught more corruption. Instill fear by atleast breifly jailing the corrupt ones, even Judicial custody will serve eye opener. It has to obviously start from somewhere midlevel neither top nor bottom. ok my apologies for straying off the subject.

But prasun, i feel that things go slow in India because we lack confidence, i donot think percentage of spending in R&D by government is small atleast for a hungry country like us.we have talent and we have reasonable resource. but our top order is very bad, they dont allow juniors to take up challenging task, and ask them instead to work with things already gone bad...flogging a dead horse, and getting stuck to correct things of past.

i agree with on indigenization...we must should indigenize defence things we wont get cheaper, reliable or atall from abroad. what is the point fo indigenizing paper clips at 10 rupee per peice when we get it at 50 paise from outside. the not so hightech things could be given to second rung technicians scientist with less money, not the premier institutes.

Anonymous said...

you may be able to modernise aircrafts with vendors other than OEM. But OEMs may be required to be kept in the loop, else anything going bad goes bad. Yes we are good innovating things and Isrealis have mastery over it...but tomorrow can we buy good aircrafts from Israel like EF or Rafale?...no these guys will armtwist

the money we give is like a bit of protection money, hard to digest, but it has to be paid.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@12.44AM: I agree that the fear-factor alone will have a domino effect. But the fear-factor needs to emerge out of scruplous adherence to and implementation of existing laws. Creating additional laws and additional posts of guardians of law will not improve the situation. A few years ago I had met some Iraqi Shias who, surprisingly, were all praise for Saddam Hussain's uncle--Chemical Ali--who was both feared and respected for his total honesty and adherence to regulations when it came to implementing infrastructure development projects within Iraq. Anyone failing him would either just disappear or his/her whole clan would be bankrupted. Is this the correct approach? Or is it worthwhile being a benevolent dictator? Or is a societal change coupled with socio-economic re-engineering reqd? As I see it, if a country can be run and managed successfully like a public-listed corporation, then why not? Why should the govt just give away or redistribute freehold land knowing fully well that land will always be a scarcity in India? Instead, why not give away land on 99 year-old leases without sacrificing land ownership (as is the case with Singapore)? Why still have District Collectors (a legacy of the British raj) when he/she is no longer reqd to 'collect' anything? Instead, why can't the District Collector and Block Development Officer team up with the area's MLA/MP to devise a renewal/upgrade plan for the very same district in which they all serve? Very deep systemic changes are reqd to reshape the country's regional administrative framework, and not just draconian legislation. Unless this is done, all developmental work/effort will be piecemeal, resulting in the existence of only isolated pockets of socio-economic excellence.

To Anon@12:50AM: Of course OEMs should and will be kept in the loop. But at the same time the customer cannot be at their mercy until perpetuity. If the upgrade requires a re-engining and total airframe refurbishment-cum-modification (as in the case of the MiG-29UPG), then by all means give the contract to the OEM. But in the Mirage 2000's case, where only the avionics suite is required to be upgraded, spending the kind of allocations as demanded by the combine of Dassault Aviation & THALES is totally unjustified.

Anonymous said...

yes, i agree that there is no dearth of laws to tackle corruption, the thing lacking is the will to implement or adhere to especially at top level. the bottom ones are minnows they will fall in line. else if you catch top, good but not possible they wont let it happen; you catch bottom ones its too easy but you have to build a jail for 100 crore people.
you catch the guys in mid-power level; the messege will pass to both top and bottom.

again sincere apologies for dragging you to another area...i am stopping it here, i prefer to ask you technical questions...
thanks for the reply and sorry for taking your time.

Anonymous said...

@ Austin June 8, 2011 4:19 PM


It is impossible for Pakistan to arm its shaheen missiles with MIRV as they dont have technology and missile is way to small for such purposes

our abms can easily target the Pakistani scud series missiles and their basic solid fuel missiles


hell even iran have better missiles then pakistan