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Monday, October 3, 2011

Legacies Of French Weapons Exports In Asia

Summer has turned to autumn in London, the chill is in the air, and the Guards in Buckingham Palace have swapped their bright red summer outfits for grey winter greatcoats. Weather never stops the tourists from coming to London though and they will still be thronging Buckingham and the busy streets of London. But on Friday, September 30, 2011 at one of the lecture theatres of the BPP Law School in Red Lion Street, a short walk from Holborn station, a more serious gathering took place. The Solicitors International Human Rights Group (SIHRG) and SUARAM had organised a briefing and fund-raising event on the Malaysian Scorpene SSK procurement case. Speakers included Joseph Breham of SHERPA, the French non-profit organisation that has taken up the case, and Cynthia Gabriel of SUARAM. Approximately 300 to 500 participants were expected, many of them Malaysians residing in London. Hovering over all, larger now in death than in life, is the shadow of Altantuya Shaariiibuu, the Mongolian who was brutally, mercilessly, murdered in the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur. Those who thought they could shut her up by killing her have been proven very wrong. She will continue to haunt them until she gets the justice she deserves. Two police officials from the Royal Malaysia Police have been convicted for killing her, but they lack a motive. Until those with the obvious motive to silence her are arrested and convicted, no matter who or howsoever high they sit, there will be no closure in this case. Why has the Royal Malaysia Police not continued with its investigations until those who gave the order are found? Why has the Attorney-General (AG) of Malaysia not returned the investigation papers and demanded a complete investigation? If Abdul Razak Baginda, who had helped MINDEF Malaysia negotiate the Scorpene SSK procurement contract, is not guilty of giving the order to kill, then who is? As long as these questions are not answered, then the justice system in Malaysia cannot be said to be working and it cannot be considered to be a country of laws, the ideal espoused by John Adams. Inextricably linked with the whole Scorpene procurement scandal is current Prime Minister Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib Razak. He was the Defence Minister when MINDEF bought the Scorpene SSKs, which when they arrived were reportedly malfunctioning and unable to dive. Abdul Razak Baginda, whom I’ve known personally since mid-1993, was reportedly his aide. The Royal Malaysia Police personnel who were convicted of Altantuya’s murder were part of Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib’s security detail. Circumstantial it may be, but hardly the kind of shadow that a Prime Minister would want hanging over him. Also the odds for such a coincidence must be mind-boggling. Yet Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib has persistently refused to submit himself to inquiry. In the US, India or in any European country he would have had to resign and accept examination, but not so in Malaysia. There, Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib instead chose to swear upon the Holy Koran that he never knew Altantuya, in curious alternative to a judicial enquiry. Malaysia owes justice to Altantuya and her family, a justice that the country has yet to deliver. She should be alive and with her family in the grassland steppes of Mongolia; and not a pile of ashes in Malaysia. The attempt to blow up her body with C-4 shows that the idea was for her to ‘disappear’, never to be heard from again. The event of September 30 need not have been held in distant London. It should have been held in Malaysia. But the last SHERPA lawyer to visit Malaysia, William Bourdon, was unceremoniously deported by the Malaysian government. So Joseph Breham had to go to London. And perhaps there is something in that, as it was an English poet, Chaucer, who first wrote that, “murder will out”.

Suara Rakyat Malaysia (SUARAM) was forced to file a complaint with the French authorities in Paris, frustrated by the Malaysian government’s blackout of key details on the price tag for the two Scorpene submarines ordered from ARMARIS (the joint venture between DCNI and THALES) in 2002. SUARAM is also working with Transparency International France to move a strong civil society campaign on such deals as they disadvantaged innocent taxpayers. It hopes that the French authorities will be able to shed light on whether there was any corruption in the Malaysian acquisition of the two Scorpene SSKs and a Agosta 70B training submarine. Malaysia is not the first Asian country where DCNS with the help of some top French leaders have bribed their way to a deal. However, in Malaysia, the initiative to recover taxpayers’ money has come from an NGO and not the government, where as in Taiwan, India and Pakistan, the respective federal administrations are the prime movers. Nonetheless, as in a similar case in Taiwan, the key to Malaysia’s purchase may hinge on a contractual clause that makes vendors liable to repay all bribes, plus associated interest and legal fees. Those familiar with international arms agreements believe this standard anti-corruption clause may be in the contracts governing the submarine sales to Malaysia, India and Pakistan.
 
Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) confirmed on July 12, 2011 that it had received the disbursement of more than US$875 million from France's THALES Group that complied with court orders to return the retro-commissions in relation to Taiwan's procurement of six La Fayette-class guided-missile frigates in the early 1990s. The MND said that the total payment also included legal fees, interest and other expenses arising from the deal with the French conglomerate which supplied the ROC Navy with six La Fayette-class frigates in 1991. The International Court of Arbitration under the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) had ruled in April 2010 that THALES Group had violated a clause in the La Fayette-class FFG purchase contract with Taiwan that articulately barred the payment of any commissions. THALES Group finalised the eventual decision to make the payment to Taiwan on a ruling of the Paris Court of Appeal on June 9, 2010. The court rejected the petition filed by the company to set aside the award handed down on May 3, 2010 in the arbitration against the Republic of China.
 
So far, MINDEF Malaysia has refused to disclose if such an anti-corruption clause exists in the deals. Even if the French authorities find sufficient grounds to take DCNS and their own leaders to court for corruption, at the Malaysian end, there is doubt that MINDEF Malaysia will push for the recovery of the huge amounts lost to Malaysian taxpayers. “We have to move a step at a time. The French investigations are ongoing and the probe could take another 2 to 3 months. The DCNS office being raided pertaining specifically to the Malaysian case was considered unusual by Parisian standards and has raised the eyebrows of many French media and corruption watchdogs. And that is why we had quite a bit of media attention when we were there,” said Cynthia Gabriel, SUARAM’s Executive Director. In 2002, Malaysia’s then Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had mooted the Scorpene SSK procurement programme in the Federal Cabinet, while Dato’ Sri Najib as Defence Minister had seconded the Scorpenes’ purchase. Even at that time, this proposal worried financial analysts because of the added burden to an already soaring national debt. But it was not until after 2006, after news broke that a beautiful Mongolian translator had been murdered in Malaysia and her body blown up with C-4 explosives that the scandal really unravelled. Highly embarrassing details emerged that until now the Govt of Malaysia has refused to acknowledge or to probe. These include high-level government tampering of immigration records to hide the entry of the 28-year old Altantuya Shaariibuu into Malaysia, the use of restricted military-grade explosives in her killing, the involvement of Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib's special aides Musa Safri and Nasir Safar, and the awarding of a side-deal worth €114 million to an obscure firm controlled by his friend Abdul Razak Baginda, who after his release, immediately decamped for Oxford University and apparently hasn’t set foot in Malaysia since. A private eye P Balasubramaniam (who has been residing in Chennai for the past two years in self-imposed exile) hired by Baginda to keep Altantuya from bothering him has since alleged that she was trying to collect her US$500,000 share of the commission for the Scorpenes’ purchase. Bala also linked the PM, his wife Datin Sri Rosmah Mansor and Baginda to her murder and the submarine procurement contract. Two former special bodyguards of Malaysian Prime Minister’s family have been found guilty and sentenced to hang for murdering Altantuya, but they only met her on the night of her death and two key questions were shunned by the judge in their trial--what was their motive and was there someone who ordered them to kill her?
 
L’Affaire Karachi:  The Incident Sarkozy Would Prefer to Forget
The Karachi bus attack occurred on May 8, 2002 when a suicide bomber stopped next to a bus containing French naval engineers from DCNI and local contract workers and blew both himself and the bus up. The explosion resulted in the deaths of 11 engineers and 2 Pakistanis. The engineers were in Pakistan to help the Pakistan Navy to finalise the design details for three Agosta 90B-class submarines that Pakistan had ordered. Both Pakistan and France were quick to pin the blame for the attack on al-Qaeda but as time went by it became apparent that the bombing was not orchestrated by al-Qaeda but most probably by Pakistani intelligence and military interests in retaliation for the French government’s decision to stop the payment of outstanding and occult commissions worth over $30 million to Pakistani officials who had helped France to land the submarine contract. That contract inked on September 21, 1994 involved the sale of three Agosta 90B SSKs. The deal was worth about $950 million and several very prominent and still active politicians were involved in it. The French Budget Minister at the time--the person responsible for overseeing the financial side of arms contracts--was no other than Nicolas Sarkozy, who had been appointed by Prime Minister Edouard Balladur. Balladur subsequently ran for President and was beaten by his arch-enemy Jacques Chirac in 1995. Chirac was aware of rumours that Balladur may have illegally received $2 million in kickbacks that were funnelled back to France to pay for his failed campaign and he got his revenge on Balladur by ordering covert inquiries into the rumours. More crucially, he also put an immediate stop to the commission payments to Pakistan. That decision is now widely believed to have led to Pakistani outrage, which resulted in the bombing as an act of revenge.
 
Although now outlawed by an international agreement, the paying of bribes in 1994 was legal and widespread to secure global arms sale agreements. In this case they were paid to high-ranking local intermediaries, and were staggered over a period of time. Chirac’s order to cancel the outstanding payments on the Agosta 90B deal has been confirmed in testimony by his then Defence Minister, Charles Millon, along with other witnesses. Millon said that Chirac was keen to purge immoral behaviour. The former French Defence Minister said he had an ‘intimate conviction’, following a review of the contract, that some of the vast sums of money set aside for bribes were actually re-routed back to France, via intermediaries and offshore structures. Unlike the payment of bribes to local intermediaries, which was then legal, it was illegal for bribe money to return to third parties in France. The mid-1990s were the final years of socialist President Francois Mitterand's long period in office (which comprised two terms, from 1981-1995). The Centre-Right opposition led by Jacques Chirac, head of the Gaullist Rassemblement pour la République (RPR) party, won the parliamentary elections in 1993. President Mitterrand was thus forced to have a government and Prime Minister from the political right. Chirac put forward his friend and ally Edouard Balladur as Prime Minister, allowing Chirac to concentrate on his campaign for the presidential elections in 1995. However, Balladur soon acquired presidential ambitions of his own and broke his agreement not to run against Chirac. This caused a bitter political split between the chiraquiens--Dominique de Villepin and Alain Juppe among them--and balladuriens, who included Nicolas Sarkozy. Balladur’s immediate problem was that he had no source of party funding to run his campaign; The RPR backed Chirac, not him. So he and his allies--who included thye then Defence Minister François Léotard as well as Budget Minister and government spokesman Sarkozy--had to search for alternative funds. On April 26, 1995 after Balladur was eliminated in the first of the election’s two rounds, FF10.25 million (about €1.5 million) were deposited into his campaign account in Paris in large denomination notes. One theory is that the money came from so-called ‘special funds’ that French Prime Ministers had access to at his time. These were significant chests of cash that were handed around ministries to be handed out as ministers and prime ministers so wished. The second theory--central to the Karachi affair--is that the money came from the retro-commissions linked to the sale of three Agosta 90B SSKs to Pakistan. During the 1990s, when the submarine sale was concluded, it was still legal for French firms to pay commissions--in reality bribes--to foreign dignitaries and decision-makers to persuade their countries to buy military equipment from France rather than another country. They could even be offset against taxes. This was widespread throughout Europe, and not limited to France. An OECD agreement among member-states in 2000 finally outlawed the practice. However, in 1994, it was already illegal for any of those commissions (i.e. paid to bribe local officials) to be channelled back into France. These are what are known as retro-commissions. In 1992, before Balladur became Prime Minister, France was negotiating to sell Pakistan the three Agosta 90B SSKs. By the summer of 1994, the deal was all but signed for a total value of €826 million (the value negotiated then in French Francs) or Rs101.5 billion, with commissions to Pakistan stipulated at 6.25% of the value of the total (€51.6 million or Rs6.5 billion), when at the last minute, the Balladur government brought in two Lebanese businessmen, Ziad Takieddin and Abdul Rehman El Assir (the latter reportedly a friend of both Asif Ali Zardari and the Pakistan Navy’s Chief of the Naval Staff at the time of the signing of the contract, Admiral Mansur-ul Haq), into the deal. The commissions were then upped by another 4% or €33 million, even though other commissions had already been authorised under the deal. The allegation is that these monies were channelled through ‘shell’ companies, at least one of which is said to have been set up under the direct supervision of then Budget Minister Nicolas Sarkozy. And that they were then used to fund Balladur’s election campaign. Takieddine describes Sarkozy as a ‘friend’.
 
Admiral Mansur-ul Haq and businessman Amir Lodhi were the two principal Pakistani intermediaries (prior to the entry of Takieddin and El Assir) in the Agosta 90B SSK contract. Admiral Haq has been identified as being the intermediary for the military end of the deal (the money reportedly destined to finance jihadi groups in Kashmir and the tribal regions of FATA, as well as to support ISI operations in Afghanistan), while Lodhi was reportedly acting for the Benazir Bhutto-Asif Zardari end of it. Irfan Qadir, the Prosecutor General for Pakistan’s National Accountability Bureau (NAB), has been quoted as saying that although the commissions were split between the two, Admiral Haq took the blame for Lodhi too.
 
Prior to the Karachi bus attack on May 8, 2002 a Pakistani employee of DCNI was mugged in Karachi in January 2002 and his mobile phone and briefcase containing details on DCNI employees in Pakistan were stolen. Two days later, a magnetic bomb was found under the car of a French diplomat in charge of Afghan affairs in Islamabad. The bomb was not only timed to go off 18 hours later, but was of such low intensity as to cause minimal damage--a warning in other words. Another incident cited as evidence of al-Qaeda not being involved is that the Pakistani head of a company (Ali Engineering Works) working with DCNI escaped to Baltimore after the attack because of threats from the ISI. However, the most convincing argument is on the basis of three confidential reports compiled as part of the DCNI’s own internal investigations into the attack. In fact, a great deal of the information, especially with respect to the details of the Agosta 90B contract and the names and roles of the intermediaries, is derived from these reports. The third report, dated September 2003, which was subsequently suppressed, is the most explicit in its conclusion that the attack was an act of revenge by the Pakistani ISI for non-payment of commissions. The report bases its conclusions on the fact that although the Saudi government did use its influence with Pakistan to mitigate the impact of the lost commissions, by 2002 there had been a change in Pakistani ground realities. Most pertinently, the Musharraf-led government, under pressure from the US, had started to crack down on various jihadi groups, thereby angering their sympathisers. The report suggests that these new realities, combined with the cancellation of the commissions and the fact that Admiral Mansur-ul Haq had been forced by NAB to return the illegally acquired money (leaving him without any funds to pass on), led the ISI to activate jihadi groups to attack the engineers.
 
In French political circles, almost immediately. Chirac’s camp knew that his rival Balladur had no party political funding and there were rumours that the latter’s campaign money came via arms deal commissions. In 1995, the newly-elected President Chirac ordered the examination of arms deal commission payments authorised when Balladur was Prime Minister. Chirac ordered that the payments be immediately halted in those where retro-commissions were found or believed to be involved. He also took the precaution to request the Saudi government to intercede with the Pakistani establishment and smooth matters over. Chirac’s camp has presented this as an attempt to clean up public life. However, Chirac’s own track record suggests probity was far from the top of his agenda. What has been widely suggested in the media and by a number of politicians, but unproven, is that it was a bid to cut off the funds of the man who had betrayed him and who could otherwise continue to represent a political threat. There is the opinion of the French Constitutional Council’s own investigators about the dubious provenance of the FF10.25 million that Balladur’s campaign received in cash. If the money did not come from campaign rallies, where did it come from? In January 2010, Luxembourg Police said that some of the funds that had passed through a shell company in the Duchy in 1995 came back into France to finance French political campaigns.
 
The main investigation into the Karachi bombing murders is led by French judge Marc Trevedic. His is a murder investigation, for under French law the deaths of French nationals abroad can be investigated--and those charged eventually tried--in France. The relatives of the engineers are civil parties to the case. His line of inquiry is that the bomb attack was a reprisal for the scrapping by Jacques Chirac’s government of retro-commissions linked to the Agosta 90B SSK sale. He has ruled out, for lack of evidence, the previously officially-supported theory that it was carried out by al-Qaeda, even though it claimed responsibility for it. The two men sentenced to death in Pakistan for the atrocity have since been acquitted. Importantly, and fuelling suspicions of a cover-up, Trévidic has been refused access to official French documents on the grounds that they are classified as secret for national defence interests. He has also been denied access to transcriptions of the hearings of a parliamentary enquiry into the Karachi bombing in a move organised by the Chairman of the Assembly’s Defence Commission, Guy Teissier, an MP from Sarkozy’s ruling UMP party.
 
A second inquiry is being led by French judge Renaud Van Ruymbeke. He is investigating the financial background, and specifically whether retro-commissions from the Agosta 90B deal served to fund a political cause. His investigation was launched in spite of opposition from the prosecution authorities in Paris. The prosecution authorities ultimately answer to political masters. As part of the judiciary the investigative judges--also called examining magistrates--are independent. The prosecutor’s office launched an appeal to have Van Ruymbeke’s case quashed on grounds of legal technicalities. According to a January 2010 report by Luxembourg Police, the creation of a Luxembourg company called Heine in late 1994 was supervised and approved ‘directly’ by Sarkozy, who was then Budget Minister. This ‘shell’ company is said to have been used to channel commissions from the Agosta 90B deal. Between 2004 and 2006 the former boss of this company, Jean-Marie Boivin, tried to blackmail the then French government, demanding €8 million in return for silence over what he knew about the retro-commission payments. One of the letters was sent to Sarkozy. Boivin also went to see Sarkozy’s former law firm partner. Boivin claims that on October 26, 2006 he received a visit from two former intelligence agency officials, and was physically threatened. Boivin says they were sent by Nicolas Sarkozy, then the Interior Minister. This was just months before Sarkozy stood in and won the 2007 presidential elections. As President, Sarkozy has promised to help the Karachi victims’ families find justice. But they complain bitterly of the obstacles preventing the investigation from advancing properly, notably the official refusals to hand over information to the judge. Sarkozy has dismissed the allegations about his involvement as ‘preposterous and a fairytale’.
 
The Karachi scandal could haunt Nicolas Sarkozy for the rest of his presidency. This in turn could have a knock-on effect on his likelihood of getting re-elected as President in 2012. If Sarkozy were found to be implicated in illegal party funding then he could not be prosecuted while in office, because of presidential immunity. But the prosecution of anyone close to Sarkozy over the affair would be politically damaging, not to say politically fatal for him. The Karachi affair has also re-opened political wounds on the right between the balladuriens and the chiraquiens. However, whether the engineers’ families will ever learn the whole truth about the retro-commissions and exactly why they were murdered in May 2002 remains open to doubt.—Prasun K. Sengupta

45 comments:

Anonymous said...

1. You said that if somebody with Najib's record was holding office in India, he would have to resign and submit himself to judicial enquiry. I don't think so. Look at Sharad Pawar.

2. The main problem here in the Altantuya's case was not the E500,000 that was a part of the arms commission, but because she was pregnent, apparently with Najib's child. Altantuya was blackmailing Najib over this pregnency and over Najib's other closet skeletons; and this prompted the murder. It is completely unbelievable that Najib would argue over E500,000. In France that amount may be a big amount to fund election campaigns but as you know in Malaysia, E500,000 is peanuts for BN. One phone call to Ananda Krishnan / Vincent Tan / Bukhari and he can get E500,000 deposited immediately into any account of Najib's liking. Najib's himself comes from a rich family, his father being PM for 6 years. His brother, Nazir, the MD of CIMB has a net worth of US$150 million and is on Forbes Malaysia rich list. Rosmah new that if Altantuya was let loose, the demands would start increasing and the secrets would eventually be let out, destroying her chances of being 1st lady. And so she got Altantuya exploded. Then other sources say she was passing on information to foreign intelligence agencies.

3. Raja Petra has made a statutory declaration of Rosmah's involvement. Military Intelligence confirmed this to Badawi.

4. PI Subra, based on what I know is actually somewhere in Vijayawada, Andra Pradesh. Another rumour says he's in Karnataka. I highly doubt he would have fled to Chennai considering Najib and his cronies close links with the DMK Government that was in power then.

5. Next comes driver Thagarajoo's statutory declaration which uncovered some embarrassing details, e.g. how Najib and Rosmah occasionally receive a Hindu tantric priest from Kerala and performed rituals to achieve thing magically.

6. Ok - the fact is this. I really don't symphatise too much on Altantuya. She was doing a dangerous business in making love and business with a DPM of a country. And more so one that is controlled by a ruthless wife. Of course, while alive she would have got money and all sorts of favours. But when things turn sour, you gotta be prepared for anything. Being looked as a foreigner and an impediment to Najib becoming PM, Alantuya was squashed. Najib's buddy Raja Baginda was exiled. Simple. I guess that's what any DPM/PM would do when blackmailed to a point where you lose all respect and position. worse than Anwar style...

Anonymous said...

Indeed very tragic for the french engineers and their families.

I have a request, is it possible to change your background to a lighter colour and your text font to a darker colour. It would be less of a strain on the eyes.

Anonymous said...

@prasun what do you make of a further one year delay in the FOC on Tejas?

All this stuttering at the final hurdle. Should we plan right now so that in 15 years Tejas and Rustom are merged into a 6th gen aircraft? Do we have that capability?

Anonymous said...

^^

who is we? you and your grandma??

Anonymous said...

anon - 3:34 PM

leave the color bro... the green reminds him of his illegitimate pakistani mother

F said...

In the very unlikely event of Pakatan winning the next General Election, Najib will find himself in the dock, explaining the Scorpene deal and the murder of the Mongolian. There also remains a lot of unanswered questions regarding the 1988 arms MOU with Britain - Pergau, the SAS base and British Aerospace's funding of a training schooner for the RMN.

In recent years, the French seem to have overtaken British Aerospace/BAE Systems in having the most ''pull'' or influence. After getting the Scorpene contract, DCN is now the main contender for supplying the 6 LCSs, which is contrary to the previous policy out spreading out various contracts to diferent countries. In the few years, GAPU will be getting a medium range SAM, and it will most certainly be VL MICA and the Thales, has a monopoly on supplying comms to the army [though the army has placed small orders from Harris] .

Anonymous said...

anon @4:23 PM... nah my grandma is dead...RIP LOL. But your wife says hi from here :)

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@12.07PM: I beg to differ with you regarding the comparison you’ve drawn about Sharad Pawar. If anyone has any admissible evidence to implicate Pawar, he/she is free to approach any court in India and file a case without any kind of intimidation. In the Altantuya murder case, as the whole world knows, crucial evidence was not even ruled as admissible and was thrown out, as was the case with numerous statutory declarations . I totally agree with you that money was not the main reason why the Mongolian lady was brutally murdered, and the pregnancy factor is the most plausible argument that exists today. Regarding P Bala’s videotaped and YouTube-uploaded testimony, he did spend his initial months of self-imposed exile in Chennai. He could well be in Bengaluru or Vijaywada now.

To Anon@3.40PM: Firstly, the Tejas Mk1 is only an interim solution with limited life-span and one therefore should not lose too much sleep over it. Instead, one should stay focussed on the definitive Tejas Mk2 and LCA (Navy) Mk2. Regarding the Tejas Mk1, as I had explained five months ago, systems integration, particularly the part pertaining to the navigation-and-attack system—is a highly complex undertaking which has never before been attempted in India—especially that involving a multi-mode fire-control radar and an integrated EW suite. And unless and until this challenge can be overcome, weapons delivery functions and procedures will not be validated. And unless all these are achieved, the aircraft operator won’t have a clue about estimating the volume of product support infrastructure that should be established in the aircraft’s home-air base. Thus, as you can see, delay in one aspect ofd the flight-test programme creates other delays in other related fields and therefore it is not at all surprising that the projected FOC schedule for the Tejas Mk1 has been affected. The good news, however, is that all such experiences will come in handy when commissioning the Tejas Mk2 and LCA (Navy) Mk2 variants, meaning ADA will not have to climb the R & D curve for these two variants in the same way as it is now doing for the Tejas Mk1.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FARIS: The big question is this: If Taiwan can recover the funds following legal litigation, why can’t the others, including India and Malaysia? Secondly, MBDA still has sizeable British industrial inputs and it would be unfair to portray the company as being a French entity. For the MR-SAM reqmt, VL-MICA would not fit the bill as it is a SHORADS at best. The Aster-15 on the other hand, along with the SL-AMRAAM, quite fit the bill. On the communications front, the Sapura-THALES JV can and has been extremely price-competitive when compared to other aspiring foreign vendors and in my view, this JV ought to be supported and nurtured so that in-country product support capabilities can be enhanced and expanded. As for new-generation principal surface combatants, based on the current order-books, DCNS—on paper--is extremely well-poised to make highly competitive offers (technology-wise and price-wise) vis-à-vis its British, German, Spanish and Italian competitors. The stealthy Gowind family of littoral combatant warships can be configured as either FAC-Ms or guided-missile corvettes, not just for Malaysia, but also for Brunei. I therefore would rank DCNI as an extremely competent and potent supplier of new-generation warships. But this much is sure: the Brits, Ruskies and Yanks will be left out for good.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@12.07PM: Najib never hailed from a rich family. His father and former PM, the late Tun Razak, had a bank balance of only RM4 at the time of his demise. The family acquired all the riches AFTER the passing away of Tun Razak.

F said...

Prasun,

I wasn't suggesting that BAE Systems was a French entity. My opinion is that under Charles Masefield, BAE Systems was the company that had the most political pull in Malaysia, starting in 1988, at the time of the 2 billion pounds arms MOU, right through to the 1990's, one that was given preference for many big ticket items. That position however has been overtaken by French companies, namely Thales and DCNS. As relations with Uncle Sam has improved, I'm hoping that stuff like Javelin and Super Hornet will be considered. If indeed, ESSM is selected for the LCS programme, this will mark the largest sale of U.S. equipment to Malaysia since the Hornet deal in 1994. As for ASTER 15 being bought for GAPU, I seriously doubt that Malaysia can afford it, if they could, the LCS would be fitted with it rather than ESSM which has been shortlisted. Janes reported in 2007 that ASTER 15 was the main choice for the Lekiu Batch 2s but the ESSM was selected due to a lack of funding.

You mentioned that Tamingsari was a joint venture involving STRIDE and companies from China [not NORINCO] and Pakistan. Any idea why the government would make the ludicrous move of making it a ''national secret''?? After all it's just a 155mm guided round, a copy of the Krasnapol.

Shree said...

You said "The P-8I also has a magnetic anomaly detector to help in the detection of submerged submarines in 'littoral' waters"
What if the sub is submerged ... and how deep should the sub be for P8I to detect it??

MPatel said...

Hi Prasun,

What do you think of the JF17 Blk II, rumours that it will get irst, asea and diamond nose and special coating? The f17 has entered their second sqdns, whilst LCA is being delayed further. Some are sayign it could actually be delayed to 2014. If this is the case how will compare with the jf17 blk II then? Its seems as if PAF are able to match IAF by spending only a fraction of money.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FARIS: The 1990s was the era of BAE Systems, MBDA, GEC-Marconi, RACAL, Shorts Brothers, Rosoboronexport State Corp, Fincantieri, Blohm + Voss and DENEL Group, while today it is that of Eurocopter, THALES, MBDA, Colt Firearms, DCNS and FNSS. For the LCS project, I don’t think it will replicate what was earlier proposed by BAE Systems, i.e. go for two Jebat-class Batch 2 FFGs with ESSM. This time, the LCS being sought for the RMN calls for a smaller displacement vessel like a guided-missile corvette for which VSHORADS and SHORADS will be reqd, as opposed to ESSM-type SAMs. Therefore, in my view, both the LCS and six existing NGPVs will be ideal candidates for the VL-MICA SHORADS. Regarding GAPU’s MR-SAM reqmt, cost is not the issue, it has never been, otherwise the A400Ms would have never even been considered.

Regarding STRIDE’s Project Tamingsari, the objective was to co-produce a 155mm laser-guided artillery projectile that was identical to the Krasnopol-M. It was identical because somehow the DPRK (North Korea) had obtained the Krasnopol-M’s technical design/engineering data packages and had first approached Pakistan’s infamous Kahuta-based Dr A Q Khan Research Laboratories (KRL) to undertake series-production of the projectile. Since KRL at that time (early 2002) did not have access to the reqd R & D funds for this project, it decided instead to approach both China and Malaysia to become risk-sharing partners in the production/re-engineering programmes. Malaysia’s extreme reluctance to discuss anything about Project Tamingsari thus stems from the fact that the project was born at the behest of two of the world’s known proliferators of WMDs, i.e. North Korea and Pakistan. This is what I’ve learnt from Chinese OEMs associated with the project since 2002 and I believe that the DPRK has also succeeded in getting its hands on the technical design/engineering data packages of Russia’s GRAN 120mm guided-mortar round, and has already teamed up with Chinese OEMs to series-produce its re-engineered clone.

To MPatel: My dear ol’ chap, Let me state once and for all that there is no existing AESA-based radar of any time in China that has either been developed indigenously, or has been imported. All the radars that you’ve seen thus far on PLAN warships and for the PLAAF’s HQ-12 and HQ-16 SAMs are all passive phased-array (PESA) radars. And if AESA-based radars have not yet been fielded by China for MR-SAMs and LR-SAMs, how on earth can one expect airborne AESA-MMRs to emerge from China? And even if the Tejas Mk1 LCA acquires FOC status by 2014, it will still be ages ahead of the JF-17 simply due to its integrated navigation-and-attack system coupled to its integrated EW suite, which is a full two generations ahead of what exists on the JF-17 Thunder. In addition, the Tejas Mk1 will have a much much higher serviceability/availability rate than the JF-17.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FARIS: You're free to cross-post my comment on Project Tamingsari in other Malaysian blogs, if necessary.

Anonymous said...

sir why are we going for medium size carriers like nikrant class and ins vikramaditiya instead of supercarriers......

don't you think its kinda humiliating to see USA is going to induct america class lhds which are actually bigger than vikrant class aircraft carriers !!!!!! leave alone the no.s their lhd s are bigger than our aircraft carriers !!

plus the way i see it our so called indigenous defence shipbuilding capability....i was simply amazed to see the time frame in which we got our ins shakti.....

seriously our shipyards take way tooo long time to make ships even the smaller ones !!! plus add to that the indigenous chest thumping, simply ridiculous !!!

Anonymous said...

"The big question is this: If Taiwan can recover the funds following legal litigation, why can’t the others, including India and Malaysia?"

malaysia - i dont care... but india? because italian big momma and her illegitimate son are sitting on it.

Anonymous said...

Prasun, about Tun Razak, he probably had RM4 in this CIMB (then Bank Bumiputra) account at death but would have had millions in his Sarasin or Rothschild account. Najib and siblings all studied in UK. While at Nottingham Najib used to drive around in a maroon Jaguar E-Type Series II and was known for his lavish life and deep pockets. His brother too had a good time. It is well known that Tun Razak was a corrupt and power hungry chap. He orchestrated May 13 and was involved in big-time money making in construction of KOMTAR & Bandar Tun Razak amongst others.

JEET SINGH said...

SIR, PLEASE POST AT LEAST ONE ARTICLE ON SMALL ARMS BEING DEVELOPED BY DRDO OR OFB LIKE KALANTAK,MSMC,EXCALIBUR AMOUGH etc.

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir

There is a disturbing news about the number of Indian Army's
Armour Piercing Fin Stabilised rounds have come down and are in a critical condition

Please give some details .

Indian ordnance factories do manufacture APSFDS rounds

Or is it a new issue in the T 90
purchase where Russians looking to Fleece us again

Anurag said...

@Prasun Da,
I heard from a friend who visited the Defexpo 2010 that the Arjun MkI has a very very thick front turret and upper front hull.Some officials present there told him that the MkI was infact much more thickly armored than its cousin,the Leopard 2A4....atleast on front turret and upper front hull.Besides Arjun MkI has 10 inches wider turret means it's better armored from side aswell than the Leo 2A4.May be that's why Arjun MkI(59 ton) is 5 ton heavier than the Leo 2A4(54 ton)-what do you say??
PLEASE do let me know your views.

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Sir, what's your opinion on the tiff between IA and IAF over the issue of responsibility of helicopters?

What problem does IAF have if IA takes over the helicopters? Afterall even the US Army maintains over 3000 helicopters while USAF possesses only ~150. Its the army which requires the helos more than AF and I think its even more necessary for IA, given the lack of coordination among the services, to maintain a formidable tactical aviation wing so as to ensure proper logistical and fire support for the ground troops.

Also, When do you think would the LCH be ready as a serious war machine, comparable to its foreign counterparts?

Anonymous said...

Couple of questions Prasun
1)There is news that Russia is to lease the nuclear submarine to india in november.Till which year will this lease be valid.
2)There was speculation that there is another nuclear submarine getting ready to be leased to india , is it true.
3)Do you have any picture/representation of Arjun Mark2 if yes then please post it.
4) Request you to write an article on the current and future APC/FICV to be procured/produced in India.

SHREE said...

About the Basic Trainer Aircraft
IAF selected the Swiss one.
My Q is is it the normal Pc-7 Or the Mach 2 variant(Less power)

Why didnt IAF go for the Pc-9 or Pc-21?

Why do you think Texan 2 was selected as it features HOTAS controls.....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@8.34AM: I do agree with you for the need for larger aircraft carriers. At a time when the Indian Navy is inducting the 44,500-tonne INS Vikramaditya, it makes no sense to acquire an indigenous aircraft carrier like INS Vikrant which will replace only 37,000 tonnes. At the very least the IAC-1 should have been designed as a 44,500-tonmne vessel. IAC-2 may touch the 50,000-tonne mark, though, but detailed design work on this vessel has yet to begin. As for the MoD-owned shipyards taking so long to build warships, the problems can be resolved provided the private-sector shipyards are made to partner with the MoD-owned shipyards and together undertake modular construction, which will cutr the timeframe for warship construction by half. This is because private shipyards can easily work under 3-shift schedules, whereas the MoD-owned shipyards work only in a single shift, believe it or not!!!

To Anon@10.50AM: I far it hard to believe that Tun Rzaak was such a corrupt person, as you allege. On the other hand, a more probable explanation may be that the ‘funds’, instead of being stashed away somewhere abroad, were in fact held ‘in trust’ by certain beneficiaries like the GENTING Group and released whenever necessary. Also beyond doubt is the fact that Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib’s own palatial residence in Taman Duta behind the Indian High Commission in KL is indicative of this politician living way beyond his ‘declared’ means of income. I also very doubt that it was Tun Razak who orchestrated May 13 race riots; for there are several indicators to point the figure towards Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

To JEET SINGH: Regretably, there isn’t much to reveal or highlight about such small arms.

To Anon@2.50PM: There is one and only one reason why the Indian Army’s stocks of 125mm APFSDS rounds and rounds for the Smerch-M MBRL are running low: the Army hasn’t ordered rep;lenishment stocks for the past six years! The Indian Army fires about 10,000 rounds from its MBTs every year for training and during exercises. If you do the math, you will reach the same conclusions as I have. In addition, the OFB-produced 125mm APFSDS rounds are for the T-72CIA MBTs and the 105mm APFSDS rounds are for the T-55s. The OFB has not yet successfully produced 125mm rounds for the T-90S MBTs since the gun of the T-90S is totally different from that on the T-72CIA and therefore the ballistic/range tables are totally different. During OP Parakram in 2002 the 125mm rounds were imported from IMI.

To Anurag: Your friend’s observations are correct. But the Arjun Mk1’s weight of 63 tonnes is inclusive of mine ploughs and combat dozers.

To Anon@3.41PM: To cut a long story short, the IAF’s insistence of holding on to attack helicopters is a discredited stances and is causing great harm to the Army’s transformational efforts. I have already covered this subject at: http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/09/its-integration-not-integral-stupid_14.html
As for the LCH, the IAF has identified several design flaws, which will be cause this helicopter’s service induction to be delayed.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@2.50PM: You can read more about OFB-produced ammo at: http://trishulgroup.blogspot.com/2008/11/ofb-produced-mbt-ammunition.html

To Anon@7.39PM: The K-152 Nerpa (Akula-3) will be leased for a 10-year period. Only one SSGN is being leased. You can read more about it at: http://trishulgroup.blogspot.com/2008/12/lifting-lid-off-project-india.html

To SHREE: The Pilatus PC-7 Mk2 has been selected. Achieving flight proficiency with HOTAS is not part of the IAF’s flying training syllabus involving basic turboprop trainers. HOTAS experience will be gained on first the HJT-36 IJT and then the Hawk Mk132 lead-in fighter trainer.

Anurag said...

@Prasun Da,Many thanks.Actually as everybody know without the belly plate and mine plough,the Arjun MkI is 59 ton and Leopard 2A4 is 54 ton,yet both are of identical size and shape.Arjun MkI's Kanchan armor is also much newer than the Leo 2A4's.Besides,the Arjun MkI uses a L52 gun where as Leopard 2A4 is equipped with a L44.So we can say atleast as far as armor protection and firpower go Arjun MkI beats the Leo 2A4-No??What's your thoughts on that??
And one thing I wonder-ARDE developed unitary FSAPDS T rounds with very heavy and long penetrators for our Arjun MkIs comparable to atleast the DM 53 if not the DM 63;so what's stoping them from developing them something for T 90S??And if we have to import 125mm FSAPDS T rounds then why the Russian round,can't they buy those Ukrainian Vitaize rounds??According to some sources the Vitiaz can defeat upto 760mm of RHA at 2000 meter.
PLEASE do share your views.

Thanks in advance.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anurag: The Arjun Mk1 can indeed hold out on its own against the leopard 2A4 since the CVRDE from the very beginning adopted the Leopard 2 MBT’s design as its yardstick. The Arjun Mk1’s fire-control system is more advanced than that on the Leopard 2A4. In terms of hit survivability too, the Arjun Mk1 comes out better. The 120mm APFSDS rounds for the Arjun Mk1 are extremely lethal, especially against existing MBTs like the Al Khalid, Al Zarrar, Type 85 and Type 96. In fact, what people don’t know is that KE penetrator rods made of DU offer only a 15% performance improvement over those built with tungsten-alloy—this coming from German and US manufacturers of such DU rounds. The problem with developing APFSDS-rounds for the T-90S is that the Russians have refused ToT for certain key components of the T-90S, which includes the cannon barrel and its ballistics/range charts, composite armour, and bolt-on ERA panels. Therefore, importing APFSDS rounds from Russia is the only option. If India were to buy such rounds from Ukraine, then the Russians would get pissed off and India does not want to do this. And Why? Take a guess, but I will give you one clue, though: why is the DRDO’s Chief Controller for Missiles and Strategic Systems & Director of the DRDO’s Advanced Systems Laboratory, Dr Avinash Chander, included in RM A K Antony’s entourage to Russia at this moment? What will he be discussing or asking for while in Moscow?

Anurag said...

@Prasun Da,exactly my thoughts.Thanks for clarifying.So,the Ruskies didn't give the source code of the ballistic computer!!What the fuck!!I wonder why the hell IA went for the licence production T 90S when it had a homgrown option which was in every aspect much better than the formidable Leopard 2A4 which itself could fry a T 90A at any time any where.To counter those 320 T 80UDs of PA the initial 350 or so T 90S were enough but the follow on 1300 was complete waste of resources as the fund could have been spent to make the Arjun MkI operational instead of making fun of the homegrown (so called 'over grown') giant.Which I fear most is the carousel of T 90S which I fear could result in the same 'jack in the box' type catastroph as with the T 72.What do you say??Can the T 90S with its present armor withsatnd hits from other tanks especially when our both adversaries have developed DU rounds??Because I myself highly doubt it can.Actually the need of Arjun MkII in large nos is more than ever at this point of time and it's high time when IA should correct its fault.
PLEASE try to share your views.
Thanks.

MPatel said...

Thanks Prasun.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anurag: The present state of affairs as far as MBT procurements go is a direct consequence of the disastrous weapons procurement sprees, especially from the former USSR, of the Congress-I govts since the early 1980s. It was because of this uncoordinated weapons procurements that drove the country into near-bankruptcy by 1990. Consequently, between 1990 and 1998 all the R & D funds reqd by the DRDO for achieving the R & D objectives for programmes like those for the Arjun Mk1, Tejas LCA Mk2, Akash Mk1 etc were unavailable for more than eight years! Thus, what should have been achieved by 1998 was instead achieved by 2006. Had the Arjun Mk1 begun entering service by 1998, then there would have been no need to import the T-90S MBTs. I admit that after having procured the initial 310 T-90S MBTs, there should been no need for follow-on T-90 purchases until the Russians had come up with a far better MBT design that fully complied with the Indian Army’s GSQRs. Such an MBT—the T-90AM—was unveilled only recently. India could well have lived with the 310 T-90S MBTs and could instead have allocated additional funds to accelerate the development of the Arjun Mk1 MBT between 1998 and 2005, especially since the Arjun Mk1, in terms of firepower, crew survivability, crew comfort and vehicle ergonomics, scores way above the T-90S—factors crucial for the Indian Army, whose next war will be of the high-intensity type and will therefore need MBTs that enhance both crew survivability and crew endurance. Another factor that made the Army go for T-90S MBTs in larger numbers was the absence of its own fleet of attack helicopters. Had the Army been authorised by the MoD way back in 1987 to have its own fleet of such helicopters (as was promised by both Rajiv Gandhi and Arun Singh to Army HQ at that time), then by now almost 200 Dhruv Mk4 helicopter-gunships equipped with long-range anti-tank missiles would have been inducted into service, and there would have been no great urgency for inducting the T-90S in larger numbers.
The T-90S as it now exists with the LEDS-150 APS, can survive against DU rounds. Yet despite this, I would rather stick to developing follow-on versions of the Arjun Mk1. And the results are for all to see. The first round of user-assisted mobility/firepower trials of the Arjun Mk2 were completed within a record 60 days in June/July, the performance analysis report was ready by late August, and by early September the prototype was back in Avadi where the CVRDE has been able to make the necessary modifications and fine-tuning—a task to be completed by November after 56 of the total 89 improvements recommended by the Army evaluation team are carried out. Which means if all goes as per plan, the next three-month round of user-assisted mobility/firepower trials will result in the Arjun Mk2’s new powerpack and all-electric turret drive/stabilisation passing the final ‘agnipariksha’ in record time, with production variants rolling out from Avadi ahead of schedule in 2013! This type of accelerated R & D momentum now needs to be maintained and nurtured for the Arjun Mk3, which ought to be the Army’s FMBT, instead of a brand-new FMBT being designed from scratch. And now with Israel Military Industries and Elbit Systems being roped in as virtual strategic industrial partners for both the CVRDE and HVF, fielding of the Arjun Mk3 by 2018 is a definite possibility.

F said...

Prasun,

Why would VL MICA be a candidate for the 6 Kedah class when they are already integrated for RAM? At the most, there is only space for an 8 cell VLS and RAM has 21 rounds. According to Marhalim Abbas, the area under the 'B' position on the Kedah class is already occupied by machinery so only a non-deck penetrating system like RAM can be fitted.

The ''history'' behing the Tamingsari is very interesting. But dont you think that it is very silly to be expending all the cash and effort into it when there are many other areas that need funding?

Anurag said...

@Prasun Da,
Very well said,the love with USSR bring us suffering for big time and the MoD should be hold responcible.
So,DRDO is not guilty after all for the so called delays;no fund no development yet they are hold responcible.
But one thing is for sure. . . . . . . after seeing the Al khalid the IA lost its nerve and that's why the massive order of the T 90S.But if they could hold their nerve and invested in Arjun MkI they could have gained a hammering edge over PA.
And yeah,I did not get it-why the hell the ASL chief in Russia??I am very new in this field so need your help.
Thanks.

Anurag said...

@Prasun Da,
I have got few questions for you dude,hope you can help.
1.According to Janes correspondent,the Arjun MkII will have a thicker and stronger barrel to fire stronger rounds-is it true??
2.You told Arjun MkII will be around 56 ton-won't it make it vulnerable??Instead,shoudn't the DRDO have used more thick armor modules??
3.Will the Arjun MkII have a roof mounted gunner's main sight like most other tanks??Only thing I don't like is the sight's position on Arjun MkI.
4.I am not a great strategist but still I think IA should have 2600-3000 heavy Arjun variants instead of 4400 or so medium tanks.Because I don't think there is any need to maintain such a massive number of panzers.What's your view on that??Can't they just replace the T72 with Arjun MkII??There is no need to replace them panzer by panzer-1400 Arjun MkII should be more than enough to replace 2000+ junks aka T 72M1s.What's your take on that??
5.Recently I heard that DRDO was able to develop a replacement of the MBDA supplied IIR seeker of Nag ATGM and the Research Center Imarat has developed Ka band monopulse seekers for AAD and PAD-is it true??
Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Prasun and fellow bloggers.

We hear about 'blacklisting' of organization for possible misdoing. My understanding is 'blacklisting' is a step of a investigative process. What has been the outcome of such process so far? It'll be interesting if you can give specific example.
Has any Indian organization blacklisted' for misdoing? Can the 'blacklisted' organization go to Indian court to challenge it?

Thanks in advance.

report... said...

about may 13 prasun, you can read this (pls click my name). it's a bit long but the 1st page clearly highlights the conclusion... non other than razak did it...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FARIS: The VL-MICA is an air-defence system whereas the RAM is a point defence system against anti-ship cruise missiles. Agree with you on the finanmcial unviability of Project Tamingsari.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anurag: Actually it has nothing to do with love for the USSR, but the manner in which the financial resources were squandered. Regarding the Arjun Mk2, the cannon barrel will be the same as that for the Arjun Mk1. The Arjun Mk2’s all-up weight of 64.5 tonnes (inclusive of combat sozer and mine ploughs) will not be of any hindrance since the MBT comes equipped with a 1,500hp powerpack. Roof-mounted gunner’s sight is totally unnecessary since the commander’s panoramic sight does the job of target acquisition. A projected fleet of 1,600 Arjun MBTs will be more than enough for the next two decades. The T-72s could meanwhile be upgraded as tank destroyers when up-armoured like the BMP-T Terminator, and equipped with ATGMs like the NAG, meaning get rid of the existing NAMICA based on the BMP hull and instead use the up-armoured T-72 hulls. The IIR seeker for the Nag is from MBDA and is being licence-built in India. For data on the PAV and AAD interceptors, go to: http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2011/08/home-grown-anti-missile-shield-for-new.html

To Anon@10.07AM: Thus far, there has been no case involving the successful prosecution of any foreign vendor indulging in corrupt practices for securing lucrative weapons procurement contracts in India. In the past a few Indian companies were blacklisted and indicted but they have been hushed up and the mass-media too has developed collective amnesia about such cases. That is why no one now talks about why Rao Inderjit Singh was dropped as Minister of State for Defence under UPA-2. He was dropped because he was on the take from some Indian private companies lobbying for being awarded subcontracts related to components manufacturing for the Arjun Mk1 MBT. As for blacklisted organization going to court to challenge the allegations, it is already happening with Singapore’s ST Kinetics. Read this: http://www.stratpost.com/high-court-clearance-required-for-artillery-tender

Anurag said...

@Prasun Da,

Thanks.Any possible date and number of Nag missiles to be inducted by IA??
And is the order for 1600 Arjun tanks confirmed??

Thanks in advance.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anurag: The Nag will be inducted in the thousands, probably about 6,000. About the total number of Arjun Mk2 MBTs to be ordered, nothing's confirmed as yet.

Anurag said...

@Prasun Da,
Any possible date for Nag induction??

Thanks.

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

prasun .. there was a video from NDTV on MIG21 ,,, i have small idea .. why not convert those migs into ucavs which can carry say 4 bvr missiles and these planes are first wave and we have then controlled from ground and missiles are fed by the planes at back so that we can have some mopping in the air done by these planes and we have a buffer for the load on the 2nd wave ...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Instead of converting them to UCAVs, why not modify them to serve as target drones or autonomous decoy drones?

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

one Q prasun da,,,
how capable are we on paper and true realization of tech for drones uav's and ucavs

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

It all boils down to determination and national willpower and if these are available then such UAVs and UCAVs can be designed and built in-country.