Since 1982, the modus operandi of
China’s military incursions in both Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh has been to
scare Indian herdsmen into abandoning grazing land and then to construct
permanent military structures like helipads. It is such actions that led to two
specific politico-military events: the Thandrong Incident, followed by the
Sumdorong Chu Incident, which are now collectively known in diplomatic circles
as the Wangdung Affair. Though no official records of these events/affairs have
been de-classified as yet by the Govt. of India, only THREE (03) near-authentic
recollections that have been published so far in India, and they are being
detailed for the very first time below:
(to be concluded)
137 comments:
To DASHU: Lap-it-up!
Watch these informative documentaries:
Journey Across KKH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYrROBeCYTs
PAKISTAN Navy Marines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTW6pjZdYRQ
IA’s Counter-Infiltration Grid Along LoC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgjqW4beLZg
BSF in Rann of Kutch & Haraami Nullah: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ05UrB4wEw
BSF in Thar Desert: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhwhbLMZPM8
And watch how the Pakistan Army's Type 69II tanks pelted & retreated from the battlefield when they were first employed against the TTP in Bajaur, South Waziristan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u43ngbDH6og
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WmQTxwXrhA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6k3XGlO7rWI
Watch & learn about 4 sequential black-ops carried out by Israel's IDF between September 2007 & August 2008 (Operation Orchard) that resulted in the total destruction of Syria's nuclear WMD programme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GfdH9AzAXE
hi prasun
my presumption that the ak 630 is not accurate stems from this video.JUst see how many bursts have to be fired at a sitting duck static big vessel. How accurate will it be against a supersonic sea skimming missile? does the shtill have an active radar?. will the single vertical launcher be capable of firing multiple missiles against a saturation attack?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLj3aYPXEEo
Sir where can I get to read of strategic black ops that our SFs have done.in it's and bits from here and their on the net I have come to know that. Post kargil we did teach an effective lesson to enemy.as a fanboy of matters related to defence on this issue where can I get authentic open source information.
once again a very very informative content . This blog is quite a class apart from the rest.
Sir,, this is indeed an awesome thread. Op Falcon is pretty unknown to general public.
But don't know why, but if Indian Army met all objectives described to them, then why this is still a state secret?
The Chinese strategy seems to be to develop their territories with better linkages road and now the railways thus improving economy and lifestyle and available infrastructure thus creating a stake for the Tibetans. However, India seems to have a more defensive mindset and would prefer to leave the frontier areas with minimal connectivity and more for military maneuvering and war fighting.
The Chinese strategy seems more proactive and development oriented. The terrain on the Indian side does impose more constraints but improving the infrastructure, economy and general lifestyle of the Ladakhis, Arunachalis, Himachalis and Uttarkhandis should make these already patriotic citizens more favourably inclined and invested in India.
is the under-construction carrier in china progressing faster than the IN anticipated?
what do you make of this bureaucratic restructuring - http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2016/08/parrikar-restructures-bureaucracy-in.html
To BHOUTIK: Of what use is an aircraft carrier when the PLAN has been unable to operationalise its air wing with J-15 H-MRCAs, despite trying since 2009? As for the MoD, what's been described is bureaucratic STREAMLINING & not RESTRUCTURING. The latter means doing away with the existing practice of maintaining 2 separate files (services & MoD) for each procurement exercise. There should be only ONE (01) unitary file within the MoD & that's possible only when the civilian & military officials dealing with various procurement projects sit side-by-side under one roof & take joint decisions & make joint proposals--all contained in 1 file. That's what is known as integrated functioning. Right now, that's not the case & a lot of time is wasted in reconciling conflicting reflections/opinions pertaining to singular issues through the dual-file system.
To ARPIT KANODIA: The sad state of affairs prevails because there's no clear-cut policy pertaining to declassification of government archives. This being the case, even the projected NDU will become a cropper. BTW, the armed forces had first proposed creation of the NDU way back in 1967! It's 2016 now & not even the foundation stone has been laid as yet.
To MAGICBULLET: Strategic black-ops & that too by India's armed forces? Are you kidding? In a country whose armed forces are not even authorised by law to conduct intelligence-related activities beyond 10km from the IB inside hostile countries during peacetime, how can strategic black-ops even be conceived?
To RADHA: Only 1 burst was fired & that same video-clip was repeated several times. No one said that those guns are meant for neutralising supersonic ASCMs. Why should VL-Shtil-1 have APAR? Have you ever come across any VL system with only 1/single vertical launcher? Care to share it with the rest of us? And what's your definition of a saturation attack & with what kind of weapon?
Prasun sir, what are your opinions on the Dhingra committee report considering that MOD makes a separate wing for procurements with military men at helm?
To LUDWIG: Why should only men in uniform be at the helm of defence procurements? Why not joint civil-military teams as is the case with ALL developed countries of the world? If all NATO-member-states can follow this decision-making model, why can't this be replicated in India? Why can't business management courses be devised for both civilian bureaucrats & military officials so that they can become domain experts PRIOR to being posted within the MoD? Why do civilian bureaucrats & military officials have to be reshuffled once every 3 years within the MoD?
Prasun sir: Sir, that is what Dhirendra Singh Committee appears to say:
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/leave-it-to-the-generals/
http://www.mod.nic.in/writereaddata/Reportddp.pdf
There are several interesting recommendations in the report sir, it would be great if we could read your opinions on them.
Hello Prasun sir,
1> Is India developing/acqurirng any 100-200 km missile for the new missile boats??
2> Is India palnning/developing any undersea sensor wall against enemy submarines like China and America?( article seen on IDRW.ORG)
3> Is NSTL of India planning any supersonic missile assisted torpedo/underwater torpedo missile?(IDRW.ORG)
4>Can the shaurya missile be effective against Chinese s400, s300 and other SAMs?
5> Does india have any plan/assets to neutralize chinese air bases/missile bases in tibet??
6> Eactly how many batteries of s400 is India buying?
7> What future stand-off weapons IS IAF Aquiring/inducting/planning to buy?
8>Is india developing any more stand-off weapons for IAF??
9?What weapons/strategy does India have to neutralize chinese SAMs in Tibet?
10> Is India developing SHAURYA missile as an ASBM??
11> Is India developing agni 5 as ASAT??
12>Is India developing any cluster bomb/anti tank bomb like GBU-105 from USA??
13>How many missiles should a PAD battery carry to protect an Indian city?
14>How many SAMS of what calibre does Pakistan have and what weapons are needed by IAF to destroy them?
HI Prasun
I was referring to the launcher on the deck of the ship that has one launcher and the missile comes from below and loaded to be fired, that is what i meant.
A saturation attack would be a 3 or 4 supersonic version of the klub missile or the kh-31 anti ship missile type arriving at the same time .I believe that unless each missile has an individual active seeker, it will be difficult to control multiple semi active missiles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Trikand_(F51)#/media/File:INS_Trikand_(F51)-image10.jpg
Hi Prasun,
Thanks for the very informative article once again and also we never carried out any black ops on foreign territory beyond 10 km its true. At-least the armed forces didn't for sure we all know that.
@ Radha
U are using that video as an argument to say that the AK630 is laughable!
Prasun
Any Headway has been made with the re-engine of the Jaguars?
Why do we need so many different types self propelled..truck mounted ..pulled by trucks..track mounted..wheel mounted ..airlifted ...
and all from different vendors..beats me
Training..inventory management would be a nightmare
Do you think that all this news about India interested in Make in India F-18 super hornet is for real or just a psychological warfare or bargaining tool against the French to sweeten the Rafale deal ?
To RADHA: That’s not a vertical launcher, but a single-rail launcher. Saturation attacks are NEVER mounted a lone warship. Rather, they’re mounted against task forces or battle groups where there’s more than one warship & therefore target engagement can be effected by different warships.
To RAT: In case you’re interested on how OP Orchard was carried out, here are the details:
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/09/17/the-silent-strike
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-story-of-operation-orchard-how-israel-destroyed-syria-s-al-kibar-nuclear-reactor-a-658663.html
To G: None so far.
To ANUP: Nexter Systems Caesar mounted on Ashok Leyland truck. How can BHIM be resurrected when the K-9 Vajra has already been selected through competitive bidding?
To MAGICBULLET: The towed Dhanush 45 is reqd for replacing the existing FH-77Bs. The LW-155/M-777 is reqd for quick-reaction mountain warfare. The K-9 Vajra is reqd for use in northern Punjab/Jammu areas. So that leaves the reqmt for 1,815 155mm/52-cal howitzers to be fulfilled. The motorised MGS, of which 814 are reqd, should be able to take care of warfare in the plains & highlands. In fact, this reqmt should be increased to 1,850 units, so that there is no need to procure 155mm/52-cal towed howitzers. Instead, what we have today is a total mess, resulting in massive financial wastage. That’s because on one hand, the OFB has come up with the towed Dhanush 52 variant, while the DRDO tries to develop the towed ATAGS, & Kalyani Group is developing the Bharat-52 towed howitzer. This thus boils down to the ULTIMATE FUCK-UP that no other country can afford to match or replicate, not even the US. In all developed countries, & even in Russia & China, there’s only 1 developer & 1 OEM for such products & none of them have to engage in wasteful domestic competition. Is there a South African competitor against DENEL? Does BAE Systems have a competitor in the US or UK? Is there any other artillery systems developer in France other than Nexter Systems? Which OEM competes with NORINCO in China? If the answer to all these questions is NONE, then why is such a wasteful ‘tamaasha’ being enacted only in India? What is it that the decision-makers in the MoD & Army HQ are smoking???
To ARUN: Those are just last-minute marketing efforts that enjoy no support from either the IAF or IN.
FYI VL missiles are stored n hermetically sealed canister with it's very own ejection system.... That single arm launcher is not part of standard VL-Shtil but,the 3S90Esystem consists of modular 12/24/36 round deck launchers like this one.
https://www.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fthaimilitaryandasianregion.files.wordpress.com%2F2016%2F06%2F7f47f-sthil-1.jpg%3Fw%3D514%26h%3D348&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fthaimilitaryandasianregion.wordpress.com%2F2016%2F06%2F14%2Fproject-11356-admiral-grigorovich-class-frigates-russia%2F&docid=qnqt2mo_PnBS7M&tbnid=j5cImY8viVmAeM%3A&w=273&h=185&safe=off&bih=340&biw=640&ved=0ahUKEwi-m9i437LOAhXFSRoKHZaABEcQMwgoKA4wDg&iact=mrc&uact=8
To All
Then what is the missile that is used on the single rail launcher?
In USA there is always a shoot off between weapons. So that the best is selected .May we are going that way as far as the 155m gun.It seems Kalyani is gambling big time.
To RADHA: Read this: http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2011/08/wasted-opportunities.html
the Shtil-1 area air defence system comprising the 24 rounds of 40km-range 9M317M SAMs, a 3S-90 missile launcher, four MR-90 Orekh target illuminators
A competitive shootout is no longer the norm in the US. For instance, Raytheon continues product improvements of legacy systems like the SM Standard family of SAMs. Same with armoured vehicles.
VMT sir
"What is it that the decision-makers in the MoD & Army HQ are smoking???" - why didn't you know? The same that was introduced by Shiva. Either that and or the relevant officials are too busy searching for an Indian Monica Screwinsky....or do they already have a few and too busy getting their rocks off?
Just a weird curiosity: G responds to Radha - replace R with G and it gives a new meaning in Bengali isn't it? :)
Don't understand one thing. When you need a 6x6 or 8x8 artillery towing tractor/truck for towing/moving a towed howitzer, then why not mount those guns on a truck from the start itself in form of a truck mounted howitzer. It makes the complete system more compact and versatile and also saves money.And it is assumed that wherever a wheeled towed howitzer can go a truck can also go. Are'nt our esteemed defence planners take these simple things into considerations while drawing out future procurement plans?
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/kunan-poshpora-a-forgotten-mass-rape-case-of-2-kashmir-villages/story-1rmD1TqawPnMMB11LQzgyJ.html
Is it true that the Indian Army has indulged in crimes like rape and sexual misconducts?
i personally think a section of IA(Fourth Rajputana Rifles) is involved in human rights violation,but the entire army cannot be accused. the need is to bring the culprits to justice and the way forward is by organizational and structural changes in the system.i know this is old issue but please give ur honest and credible information on this matter?
Regards
Ron
What do you think of this Prasun http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesundaystandard/MEA-hires-from-private-sector-to-get-fresh-perspective-in-foreign-policy/2016/08/07/article3566772.ece
To SOUTIK GHOSH: How can the planners go ahead & engage in the planning process when they are not being told by their political masters what to plan for? Military force structures & force modernisations are always undertaken in pursuance of precise war directives issued by the civilian decision-makers. In India's case, are such directives precise? Or are they just one-liners, like 'prepare for a two-front war'?
To DEVOPRIYO: That's a splendid move & this will make the MEA a more professional institution. And that's because no one institution anywhere in the world is blessed with all-knowing wisdom & external inputs/contributions are always reqd. For instance, at a seminar organised yesterday by the Pugwash India Society on 'Extended Deterrence in East Asia', none of the panelists (comprising former career diplomats & academicians from JNU, IDSA etc ) & audience had any clue or idea on whether Pakistan's nuclear WMD tests had used enriched uranium or plutonium! Nor had they any clue about the next revolution in military affairs involving directed-energy weapons. When this topic was brought up by your's truly, there was a hushed silence for quite some time & then almost everyone reluctantly agreed that they were not even aware of the relevance of such topics!!!
To RON: Well, your 'line of thinking' is dead-wrong. It is more likely an assumption, because you were not present when these alleged incidents took place. As per Shariah law, there must be at least four witnesses to corroborate the allegations & only then can this be labelled as undeniable evidence. So those who are making such accusations should produce the witnesses as dictated by Shariah law. As for common-law practices, the IA invited the Press Council of India (neutral 3rd party) to do the investigations & their conclusions are all reported here:
https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/INDIA935.PDF
Furthermore, as I had explained before in the recent past, whenever the IA conducts any cordon-and-search operation anywhere in India, it is SOP to do them in the presence of at least six local area elders. There has NEVER been any deviation from this SOP. And that's precisely why no compelling evidence has to date emerged in support of the allegations.
The only conclusion then left on the table is that these alleged rapes were the handiwork of sex-thirsty terrorists who had infiltrated across the LoC & then were the perpetrators of this crime. That's because for more than 1,500 years these folks both east & west of the River Indus have always been subjected to such humiliations by the foreign Muslim invaders who always resorted to rape & slavery as the ultimate means of deterrence against revolts/uprisings. This therefore has gotten ingrained among the minds of the residents of both to the east & west of the River Indus in today's Pakistan & hence whenever they want to provoke emotional outbursts & allege human rights violations, they always cling on to the 2 main narratives that they themselves have been subjected to through the centuries, i.e. rape & slavery. Consequently, in the eyes of most Pakistanis, acts like frontal attacks on civilians with RPG-7s & medium field artillery, attack helicopters & air-strikes of the type carried out by Pakistan against its own citizens in Balochistan & FATA don't count as human rights violations. Sadly for Pakistan, the world is not buying this self-righteous, holier-than-thou narrative & you too will be well-advised to condemn such a narrative.
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/national-defence-university-and-a-fleeting-opportunity/article8964938.ece?homepage=true
Prasun whats your analysis on russia turkey alignment. Do you think a new coalition forming central asia involving above 2 plus china and iran. Does this push india to a corner again.
Interesting http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-vietnam-idUSKCN10K2NE
Raj
Thanks sir
Wait a minute. China is sure to veto so that means the proposal is not going to be supported - this in turn will prevent Pakistan from being denuclearised?
Sir,
Seems like your this prediction also coming true. NIA today released a confession video.
https://twitter.com/cnnnews18/status/763308980944900096
Here is link of full Vdo
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8DybGXXTfUg&feature=youtu.be
To RAJ: LoLz! Looks like Reuters has finally discovered what I had revealed way back in December 2014! Here's the thread:
http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2014/12/glimpses-of-ideas-2014-expo.html
Scroll down till you reach the headline "Defending Vietnam’s Offshore Islands In The Spratlys With IMI-Built EXTRA MBRLs & Orbiter-2 Mini-UAS"
To PIERRE ZORIN: The proposal will be supported, but not ADOPTED due to China's assured veto. That then will set the tone for exercising the multinational military coalition option & that's when foundational agreements like LEMOA will play a crucial role. This may well be what the Indian RM was referring to earlier this year when he had hinted that matters will come to a head by this year's end.
To ARPIT KANODIA: VMT. Unlike the so-called 'confessional' video of Kulbhushan Jadhav where there was no lip-sync with the audio, this indeed is an authentic confession & by now we can all rest assured that the investigative agencies of the US, UK & France have already been granted access to this terrorist as well for questioning under the NIA's supervision. There are several more of such confessional videos of in-custody Pakistani terrorists that should be sequentially revealed once every week.
The past 96 hours have been extremel;y interesting. First was the unprecedented diplomatic outrage by the host, Pakistan’s Federal Minister of the Interior, who threw SAARC conventions to the dustbin & delivered 2 speeches, instead of only 1. Here are the details of what exactly happened INSIDE the SAARC Home Ministers’ Meeting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbwYIR3KJd8
Then former Pakistani High Commissioner to India during the Kargil War, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, made the outrageous claim in the same programme by stating that the UN Charter authorises armed insurrections as part of freedom struggles. Perhaps he is still oblivious to various UN resolutions in the post-9/11 era.
And yesterday, 2 prominent Pakistani lawmakers openly refused to blame R & AW for the internal bloodbaths taking place in Pakistan since 2002. Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) chief Mahmood Khan Achakzai said that the government should look into the failure of its own departments instead of blaming India's R & AW for terrorists attack in the country. Maulana Muhammad Khan Sherani, heading Pakistan’s Council of Islamic Ideology & representing Balochistan, said: “Does the security establishment exist to protect Pakistan, or does Pakistan exist to [perpetuate] the security establishment? We deserve to know the truth. Powers within this country are backing the terrorists. These people attacking us are from among us. There is no R & AW in Balochistan. They are the same people we nurtured”.
Pakistanis are now totally confused by such conflicting narratives. Everyone is now asking where are all those dossiers & Kulbhushan Jadhav & why isn’t the world taking them seriously:
Watch these:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPILqn_xeoE
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4nyprl_tonight-with-fareeha-9th-august-2016_news
Selected intellectuals have also now begun speaking up about Pakistan’s duplicity:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jwhh516LBo
So, what does all this lead up to? Obviously the SAARC Summit later this year in Islamabad is no longer a possibility. Furthermore, Afghanistan & Bangladesh too critisied Pakistan’s proxy wars last week in Islamabad & Bangladesh’s Home Affairs Minister did not even show up. It appears likely that the majority of SAARC member-states will collectively decide to banish Pakistan forever from SAARC & hold the forthcoming SAARC Summit elsewhere. Furthermore, India’s MEA yesterday told Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India that India will initiate moves in the UNSC to designate Pakistan a terrorist state based on cellphone transcript evidence provided by the US NSA to the NIA WRT Pathankot terror attacks, plus the several Pakistanis caught alive inside J & K. Afghanistan & Bangladesh will second India’s proposal at the UNSC. If the UNSC supports this resolution (although China will veto it), both China & Pakistan will be in a bind, since no designated terrorist state can be allowed to possess nuclear WMDs. That in turn is likely to set in motion the process of de-nuclearising Pakistan, if need be by force.
The great game is already afoot!
To ANUPAM: There's no such alignment taking place in the geo-strategic sense. Both Russia & Turkey need each other for economic reasons since their respective economies are in the doldrums & they need to be revived & if not, more domestic unrest & internal turmoil will follow within both Turkey & Russia.
To ARPIT KANODIA: But we will always be saddled with certifiable buffoons who will try to act as agent provocateurs & confuse Indian citizens:
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/kashmir-is-our-problem-stop-blaming-pakistan-mani-shankar-aiyar-tells-modi-2966021/
Dear Prasun,
You said that test 71 torpedoes are on board INS Arihant. Do we have any submarine based torpedoes under development? Further I am eager to know that can Mareech fool any torpedo in the world today. Can you share more on its capabilities?
thanks for clearing that up with evidence but still there are some human rights violation cases against security forces with evidences which were not prosecuted by Govt.
http://www.defencenews.in/article/Pakistan-pleads-the-United-States-to-stop-preferring-India-over-Pak-7421
India and Pakistan are two very different countries. It is not a case of US preferring India over Pakistan. USA is aligning with India out of its strategic and economic interests. Connecting Chabahar with Afghanistan will lead to stopping all aid to Pakistan. In other words USA is choosing Iran and not India over Pakistan.
Bush had the right language for pakistanis - "we will bomb you back to the stone age". Trump will actually do it.
Regards
Ron
To RON: If "In other words USA is choosing Iran and not India over Pakistan"m then why is the US not inking LEMOA with Iran, but with India? Why isn't the US investing in Chah Bahr FTIZ, but India, Japan & ROK are? Human rights violation allegations aren't prosecutable until there's compelling evidence on the table. That's how India & the rest of the world see it. Those cases that have never been subjected to judicial processes are all inside PoK.
Not just the US, but the entire world except China is aligning with India because no one likes to make enduring alliances with national security states. That's because only welfare states are enduring & long-lasting, national security states like those of China & Pakistan have finite shelf-lives & they are highly unstable internally & externally. World history teaches us all that national security states like the former USSR, former East European Warsaw Pact member-states, Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy etc etc have all perished due to their unsustainability. Even Cuba is now transforming. That leaves only China, DPRKL & Pakistan.
http://www.thequint.com/life/2016/01/27/did-you-know-raw-agent-ravinder-kaushik-was-also-a-pak-army-major
is this story true? please elaborate with factual evidence.
Regards
Ron
In China Theater could the strategic bombers play the new role of flying artillery, demonstrated by US Air force in Afghanistan? As these aircraft's has incredible speed and range because of which they can be stationed long from any war theater and could reach these war theaters in small given time and could doge the enemy aircraft's and air defenses. With the infusion of Indian, French and Israeli weapons, electronics & avionics these aircraft's could play the important role. Instead just being a strategic they could play as a tactical weapon platform.
Indian air force with Tu 22M or Tu 160 bombing the Chinese attacking waves and releasing the tight grip held by Chinese on the Indian defenses. This could be also done by the artillery, but what our artillery can’t achieve is like bombing the supportive artillery of the attacking forces which is beyond our artillery range, bombing the reserves, command directing the operations, supplies and routes of these attacking forces on the Indian defenses.
Also would like to know if the assembly lines of these aircraft are still going or could the Russians start them if India could place the reasonable order numbers for them?
I know that we have aircraft's like Mirage and Sukhois or Mig 23, 27 and Jaguars to play the role (but most suited for Pakistan Theater) but they can’t carry the weapon load of that size that these aircraft can and that too on these heights (China Theater).
The Indian and US, UK & French have conducted numerous exercises in India and abroad we don’t find any A10, C130 Hercules gunships, B-1 Lancer or B42. Is the collation or the Indian forces going to de-nuclearise Pakistan without them? What air support will they have if they are surrounded or facing the heavily and outnumbered adversary.
Also there were talks about Indian Navy’s interest in the Tu22M, what happen to that deal there were other weapons on the list as well. Are they in service (secretive) with Indian Navy?
Your inputs and info is always very valuable for better understandings… I have been reading your blog and reviews for long time now; forgive if I have missed any info that you might have provided earlier on this, looking forward for your reply.
To RON: There's no factual evidence to share on this issue.
To SMITH: VMT, but no one is there to supply any kind of strategic bomber to India. Nor are they reqd. Nor is Russia in a financial position to restart production of the Tu-22M2 or Tu-160. CAS sorties are all about integration of airpower with ground formations. The A-10A & AH-64D/E are all integral to US land forces & they operate together within designated kill-boxes & are therefore not reqd to interface with the air forces of other countries. Pakistan will never be able to muster any degree of numerical superiority against a multinational coalition simply because it won't be about a full-scale ground invasion of Pakistan. Instead, relentless decapitating air-strikes will exact a huge quantum of attrition losses out of the PA & PAF. As for the northern front, weapons load doesn't count anymore. It is the accuracy of PGMs that matter & such PGMs are always getting smaller, lighter & more accurate.
will the Project 15 Delhi-class destroyers be upgraded with Brahmos missile complex?
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/the-cause-is-afspa/article8930063.ece
why despite of various recommendations made by different committees against AFSPA and reasons why the central government is reluctant to repeal AFSPA?
Regards
Ron
It is now almost 72 hours since the Quetta suicide bombing & one has yet to see the staging of funeral processions of the type that are sponsored with alacrity by the PA inside Pakistan whenever a local terrorist from J & K is gunned down. Therefore, what kind of international sympathy can such a country expect when it does not even bother to publicly mourn the deaths of its own citizens, & instead rushes to mourn the death of terrorists killed on foreign soils & hail them as martyrs? Such countries can only be described as being insanely sick to the core and filled with extremely deep internal divisions.
Hi Prasun,
What is your take on this http://idrw.org/australian-french-angle-to-indias-quest-for-nuclear-attack-submarines/ ?
Is the IN really considering the barracuda?
Best Regards
Raj
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Afghanistan-needs-more-Indian-military-aid-US/articleshow/53638899.cms
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=217&v=lPLWi-DYlNQ
watch from 1.26.to 2.41
this guy has done a stand-up act on the car crash tests. IMO not his best act but still worth a watch.
Regards
Ron
@prasun da
a few questions
1. wont it be better to lease the K157 Vepr (Akula 2) also undergoing overhaul which is similar to K152 Nerpa (Akula 2) instead of Kashalot (Akula 1) also bcoz hull of Vepr is newer than Kashlot?
2. I think the sudden outreach by PM Modi towards Dalits & blasting cow vigilantes is a direct result of points raised by US gov about religious murders, your thought?
3. That Afghan forces need weapons is known & India can supply them. but isnt it far more imp. to stop the weapons from falling into the hands of insurgents?
4. you say that only a few areas of Kashmir are still simmering, but question remains how this has been sustained for over a month?
5. If you remember you had said Kashmiris need jobs and I had said non availability of jobs was main reason for resentment of kashmiri muslims aginst pandits, to which you said that they were hounded out on orders of ISI, but isnt the fact that while pandits kept all white collar jobs muslims were left with only blue collar jobs?
6. We know IA is sending tanks to protect areas near eastern ladakh near Chushul, but over 100 tanks to protect Chushul area that overlooks Tibet? when we already know we are in better position in Chushul area (if i am not wrong)?
7. Wont it be better idea to send tanks to areas near Daulat Beg Oldie/Depsang bulge to target areas upto Western Highway?
hope to get answers
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
Sir could you give some insight into what all would India provide in the next tranche of arms consignment to Afghanistan.
More headaches for the RM: http://indianexpress.com/article/business/business-others/defence-procurement-if-process-not-expedited-well-have-to-rethink-our-investment-in-india-says-iwi-2962633/
Backgrounder: After the MoD had announced in February 2013 that US$8 billion might be spent on small arms through imports and local production, the Indian Army purchased about 2,372 older Tavor TAR-21s from IWI (including 2,000 from the original order of 3,072—the order signed in 2002 and worth $17.7 million—and 372 for the Special Frontier Force in 2005). This was exclusive of the roughly 500 Tavor TAR-21s and 35 Galat’z (Galil 7.62mm sniper rifles) bought for $3.3 million in December 2010 for the MARCOS. In 2011, the Central Reserve Police Force received 12,000 X95/Micro Tavors. In 2013, the Indian Army also bought about 5,400 X95/Micro Tavors with bayonet flash-protectors. The Army’s Tavors in use now are massively modified and patched together with non-Israeli sub-units: locally-manufactured, hard-plastic, single-piece stocks; and Turkish Makina ve Kimya Endüstrisi Kurumu (MKEK, or Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation) T-40 40mm single-shot underbarrel grenade launchers (UBGL). Some of the mods were forced by Israel’s inability to deliver the X95 with UBGLs. But nor was it loath to permit mods, or make a point of sticking to full-arms-and- projectiles copyright. (The 5.56mm ammunition was to have been supplied by Singapore’s ST Kinetics. One of the reasons for the iffy availability to the Indian forces of a rolling supply of 5.56mm and 7.62mm roundss is that STK was forced out of the picture for a while. India cannot manufacture them.) The Indian government began the process of identifying land in Madhya Pradesh and Pune for a carbine manufacturing plant.
In December 2013, the Cabinet Committee on National Security, headed by the then PM, Manmohan Singh, had approved $300 million for 40 Heron-1 MALE-UAVs from Israel Aerospace Industries’ MALAT Division, with each costing $10 million. In September 2013, the IAF relocated some of its earlier Heron-1s to the 4,057km Line of Actual Control. The even earlier 1996-vintage batch of ex-Singaporean Searcher Mk.I MALE-UAVs were found to have flight-endurance/high-altitude performance limitations. The IAF, therefore, pushed hard to get the Heron-1s. Not surprisingly, this development came just a day after a government snit over the leakage of a report by Shyam Saran, the then Chairman of the National Security Advisory Board, which said baldly that China had, without fanfare, taken over almost 640 sq km of India’s territory in eastern Ladakh.
Hello Prasun, was the area occupied by Chinese taken back or East India company aka congress government followed traitor cha-cha nehru's logic of not a blade of grass grows there and forgot about it
Thanks, Ganesh
whatever, went to Dragons that stays there no question of returning back .
But have a look at this, where PRC changed the status of PoK unilaterally.
http://idrw.org/chinas-long-shadow-what-the-debate-over-kashmir-has-totally-failed-to-notice/#more-104205
http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/pm-modi-expose-pakistan-in-balochistan-pok-help-kashmir/346349/
is India preparing ground for multinational coalition strike ?
Hi Prasun,
As per news media, Taliban are making gains in Helmand province and are about to take over the provincial capital. Is it because of lack of coordination and what will be the impact of such a loss.
Also, Pakistan is going to hold dialogue on Kashmir and Invite India to it? What are they trying to cook now. Is it Indian Govt. failure to handle the negative and hostile media on Kashmir within and outside India. Eg. Al Jazeera has been giving negative reports about Kashmir and reporting it from POK. Why is Indian Govt allowing it.
And lastly, China advising India about not making South China Sea an issue and not to aspire for NSG with out signing NPT. How will India handle this open challenge at being relegated downwards by China.
Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri
Hi Prasun ji, how're you doing...I hope everything is alright and that you are still shoving Trishuls up the arse of idiots/ignoramuses while yelling "Har Har Mahadev", as you promised us that you will.
While you're at it...would you take some time out to explain us your views on the future of the Middle East? Especially Turkey and Syria/Iraq.
And btw, thanks for the Part-2!
To GESSLER: VMT. Yes, the clarion call was sounded yesterday & now an all-pout information warfare offensive will be launched from all official & diplomatic quarters about Pakistan's barbaric atrocities against civilians in PoK & Balochistan. In fact, the all-party meeting should have been held on August 11, the day Balochis celebrate as their independence day. All the points & clarifications that I have given on-record over the past 3 years in various threads in this blog will now find their way on various pieces of govt documentation that will be shared with all UN member-states so that they can at last understand that a national security state that upholds any religion as a national foundational ideology cannot be either sustainable, nor stable, nor believe in peaceful co-existence. The Govt of India's Information Warfare strategy will also draw upon the objective assessments of several well-0meaning Pakistanis who have recently appeared on Pakistani TV channels to boice their own mis-givings, such as these:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO6fdkpp_3M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epb38vT7-_E
I have also recommended (& the govt has accepted it) that the Govt of India start organising various exhjibitions that highlight all the human rights violations of the Pakistani tribesmen & soldiers from as early as 1947, starting with Baramulla & Skardu where non-Muslims were subjected to horrific atrocities. This should be on the lines of how Bangladesh has gone ahead & created its Liberation War museum that details & documents war crimes committed by the PA in East Pakistan. BTW, Bangladesh is now gearing up to commence war crimes trials (in absentia against the PA) similar to the Nuremburg trials after WW-2. I'm sure we can learn a lot from Bangladesh & once & for all resolve to follow suit WRT war crimes committed by Pakistanis in J & K since October 1947. That'[s the very least that we can do, instead of brushing it all under the carper has was the case until now.
As for the situation in Middle East & Russia-Turkey, do watch these:
Turkey-Russia Relations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqyR3wJGUAk
Turkey Foreign Policy Changes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RT_8THrjMTM
Russia-Ukraine Tensions Rise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAsJyPtBiic
To SRINIVASA NANDURI: Afghan Taliban never had the strength post-2002 to seize territory & hold it. Pakistan doesn't want dialogue with India, it wants negotiations. And it is now counting on China's support. That's why the COAS of PA was in Beijing 6 days ago. Also, do read this:
http://www.orfonline.org/expert-speaks/pakistans-insidious-china-card/
To GANESH: That will be explained in detail in the concluding part of the narrative of this thread, rest assured. I have been quite busy these past few days with my solo recon missions WRT the on-going joint PAF-PLAAF air-defence exercises now underway at the Khunjerab Pass, involving LY-80E MR-SAMs, FM-90 SHORADS, YLC-2V radars & VHF-band JY-27 radar.
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/jammu-and-kashmir-narendra-modi-all-party-meet-2971377/
why is he only referring about POK but not gilgit-balisthan?
what is his stand this area does he want this area r not?
Regards
Ron
Dear Prasun da,
About PM's statement about Balochistan and PoK. Seems finally things are being put in motion.
Regards,
Pawan
hi prasun
do you think getting VHF uhf radars to counter stealth is a priority for india ?when china has claimed it detected f-22 deployed in korea.
They will definitely try to enter our airspace if we dont have the capability to detect stealth planes like j-20 .The chines have made vhf aesa radar and the israelis have also developed a aesa UHF radar. How effective is UHF radar to detect stealth craft?. what was the drive behind israel making uhf radar in spite of having excellent l band and s band aesa radars ?.
why is turkey acting like the pakistan of europe? and now suddenly warming up to russia. If the nato pulled out from turkey will it be a blow to turkey as well. the west can destroy turkey with sanctions in a jiffy.
why is the MOD sitting on the carbine , rifle procurement files and why is IWI ndustry pised of to give such a statement .
why cant we anufacture 7.62 rounds as we were making them for the old SLR.
IS the army gravitating to the 7.62 x39 round?.
Dear Prasun da,
What is your views abt quite bold assertion by PM abt Balochistan & PoK (He may be first to say in that many words). Is the plan to decapitate pak's WMD & reclaim PoK has been set in motion formally?
Regards
Pawan
Prasun, been reading your blog for a while and I am stunned by your foresight and knowledge of foreign affairs, particularly in our neighbourhood and things are moving along as you predicted.
My only request to you is to be little bit more gentle on domestic defence industry inspite of the concerns all may have, after all, looking 15 years back, industry today has come a long way.
best
Prasun Da,
My question maybe somewhat off topic but nonetheless related to Indian nationalism.
(1) A common perception is that India comes up with mediocre performances in Olympics because Govt of India hardly invests anything in sports unlike China, US, Russia who invest billions of dollars. However billions have been invested in cricket & yet India fails to win matches against major test playing nations like South Africa & Australia.
Ergo, does it not follow that even if GOI starts investing billions in sports India's performance at Olympics might still not improve?
(2) Similarly if GOI starts investing billions in DRDO & other R & D organizations just like western countries is there any guarantee that DRDO etc will develop the skills to design cutting edge weapon systems?
Regards,
VIKRAM
sir is PRC directly negotiating on behalf of pak?
http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/for-india-in-nsg-china-to-send-main-negotiator/ar-BBvATtd
NSG lo PoK do - give and take
No more separate rail budget.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Railway-budgets-92-year-old-journey-set-to-end-in-2017/articleshow/53678416.cms
@Vikram the official budget of DARPA, of only DARPA is around $3 bn.
While whole budget of military & space R&D of India is around $3 bn.
Dear Prasun,
US-Turkey
http://europe.newsweek.com/turkey-warns-america-turn-over-gulen-490188
Will America surrenders to turkey to hand over Gulen?
Russia-Ukraine
India is fence sitter in Russia-Ukraine crisis. When India is forced to take sides
what India will do?
Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar
To RON: You need to do some homework on the origin of the term PoK & what it refers to.
To VIKRAM GUHA: These 2 reports may shed more light on the questions raised by you:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Why-scientists-of-Indian-origin-are-leaving-a-better-life-and-returning-to-India/articleshow/53693730.cms
http://indianexpress.com/sports/rio-2016-olympics/dipa-karmakar-gymnastics-vaults-final-produnova-result-medal-india-tripura-highlights-video-2973652/
To VIJAY: VMT, but you'ere asking for the impossible from me. I merely share facts & figures & the consequent inferences, & not perceptions or assumptions. Thus, there's no grey area & matters can therefore be seen as either black or white. What you are suggesting is that you are asking your mirror to photoshop your own reflection according to your preferences--a sure recipe for utter disaster.
To DASHU & PAWAN: Step by step, the right moves are being made. For instance, statements from the MEA nowadays are to the point & devoid of patronising content. Like this one:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpzpnLRXEAA6Rve.jpg
But a long way has to be traversed so that the bull can be caught by its horns. This is one probable way of doing it:
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/fifth-column-kashmirs-violent-children-tavleen-singh-column-2973662/
And here's another:
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/what-pdp-mp-muzaffar-hussain-baig-told-pm-modi-at-the-all-party-meet-kashmir-2972727/
All these address some home-truths, as does this video-clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PbheFG6J9Q
As for issues like NSG admission, India has succeeded in putting China on the backfoot & Beijing knows this only too well, since it can never forget the fact that India had consistently lobbied for China's inclusion in the UN. China also knows now that there are 3 countries that are stoutly opposed to everything that Pakistan represents today--Afghanistan, India & Iran. Each of these 3 countries can help China earn far more business revenue than Pakistan. So, it isn't just about the India-Pakistan equation as was the case until a few years ago. In short, China has far more headaches now & that explains why India's EAM & PM were all smiles when meeting the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi yesterday, while the Foreign Minister was glum & without any smile. Such body language tells it all.
The 'Mansooba' (plan) for de-nuclearising Pakistan was born way back in 2003 itself by the US neo-cons & over the years this policy approach has been adopted by both the US Democrats & Republicans, as well as by the GCC member-states & by Iran & Afghanistan. For, everyone today believes that Pakistan's 'zaroorat se ziada thekedaari' attitude will one day (by 2018) cause it to threaten Israel with nuclear WMDs once the Type 032 Qing-class submarines armed with SLBMs & SLCMs start arriving at Ormara's PNS Jinnah naval base. This in turn will severely threaten both Saudi & Iranian leaderships of the Sunni & Shia sects. The GCC member-states know the apocalyptic consequences of all this only too well & therefore they have since ditched Pakistan & have turned to India & Israel for strategic protection & for maintenance of balance-of-power in the Middle East. So, how did this all come about?
Details of India's contribution remain secret to this day & will be till 2018 at least, but what I can reveal & share on the eve of Independence Day is that it was for this reason that Saudi Arabia bestowed NaMo with its highest civilian honour during NaMo's last official visit to Saudi Arabia. What possible strategic assistance could India have extended to the GCC member-states? Possibly about 6 Agni-3 ballistic missiles (that never entered service in India) have ended up in Saudi Arabia (to replace the CSS-2 MRBMs of Chinese origin that were supplied in the late 1980s) minus their nuclear warheads, with the Israelis being the supplier of such warheads. Such tectonic strategic re-alignments & convergences have allowed the GCC member-states to start distancing themselves from Pakistan & therefore Pakistan has become totally irrelevant to the Arabs. At the same time Iran, which has a robust arsenal of MRBMs & IRBMs of North Korean origin, requires the finances of India & the GCC member-states for revitalising the Iranian economy & those of Afghanistan & the Central Asian Republics. Thus, a multinational coalition of the willing has since emerged comprising the GCC member-states, the US & EU, the UK, Israel, India, Iran & Afghanistan that are unanimously in favour of de-nuclearising Pakistan.
This will remain a world-classic example of 'multinational realpolitik' as propagated by Kautilya/Chanakya for several years to come, & that's how big countries play games. In case of Pakistan, when the 'Dug-Dugi' starts getting played, the only 'bandars' dancing to the beat are the ones in Islamabad & Beijing--one more reason why Mr.Wang Yi was looking so glum yesterday in New Delhi.
Prasun da,
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/only-outstanding-issue-with-pakistan-is-liberating-pok-jitendra-singh-2975216/
A few coherent, pointed statements emanating from India for a change.
Thanks
Hi Prasun,
After a long time posting a comment. However, I read your wonderful blog frequently.
I do not agree with denuclearization of Pakistan beginning 2018. Now it looks like Mrs. Clinton will be the US president after the presidential election. Mrs. Clinton's adviser is a lady born to Pakistani and Indian Muslims. Her love towards to Pakistan is quite famous in Washington. Moreover, Hilary is more pro-Pakistan than pro-India. One retd US soldier told me that US Dept of State is full of pro-Pakistan than compared to Pro-India even though Pentagon wants to form alliance with India. This is one of the main reasons why US does not classify Pakistan as terrorism sponsered country along with North Korea and Iran. So in this circumstances, US will not be in a position to act against Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan still helps in US to cladestine operations like Ukraine.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/breedlove-network-sought-weapons-deliveries-for-ukraine-a-1104837.html
"According to the email, Pakistan had offered, "under the table," to sell Ukraine 500 portable TOW-II launchers and 8,000 TOW-II missiles. The deliveries could begin within two weeks."
How could Pakistan help US like this way? Do you think US will help to 'denuclearise' Pakistan? Any denuclearization of Pakistan will destroy Pakistan. A Yugoslavia type situation will arise in Pakistan. That may not be good for India either as India will have to take some Pakistanis refugees.
Nevertheless, I was impressed by Pakistan's involvement in cladestine operations. It looks like, its intelligence capability is quite good. How can Pakistan involve in such operations?
Thanks,
Ravi_N.
Dear Prasun,
You sure about Agni 3 given to SA? That can not be true.
To RAVI_N: Fund-raisers for Hillary are all INDIAN citizens, not Indian NRIs or American Indians, rest assured. As for what Hillary will spell for Pakistan, here's what US-based Pakistanis have to say:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvh86tROTJQ
If Pakistan's intelligence capability is so good, then how come they missed OBL & all the ongoing suyicide bombings & how come Ayman al Zawahiri remains elusive?
To VED: Why not? What's so unusual or unthinkable about it? Care to elaborate further?
Dear Prasun da,
Thanks for answering the query & particularly referring that IE article about Mr Baig's views. I am assured that Pak can't succeed in Kashmir beyond creating troubles through fanatics.
Regards
Prasun ,It seems that now the armed forces have to resort to begging for their pay.This flood ,that flood Army deployed,this earthquake that earthquake army deployed This riot army deployed this problem that strike army deployed !But when it comes to pay the undeserving get the most due to vote banks and political malaise.People who should be really well and truly taken to task are left off scot free and paid like kings.Our athletes give their best in the games but the support to them from their officials leaves much to be desired!Nepotism corruption rules the roost in most of the cases of athlete /sports persons selection.Now the situation is the armed forces are worse than the paramilitary organizations when it comes to paying them.When it comes to using them all and sundry tasks they should carry out just to cover up the inefficiency of these very organizations and officials who are being paid much more for it whereas the armed forces have been reduced to begging for their dues.Independence day people salute their bravery but the powers that be couldn,t care less.Such a shame really! !http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/armed-forces-wait-for-salary-hike-may-get-longer/articleshow/53678988.cms
Prasun Such a sad state ofaffairs as this senior officer comments: Brig Pradeep SharmaRetd chandigarh-1 day ago
We are an all India service just as all who appear for the Civil services Exam. We live through sepapration, isolation and risks unparralled , retire in early life and are not given opportunity to work many times. Babus retire at 60, get up graged on a time basis as do IPS Officers. One after the other Pay commisions have eroded our very status, we have lost our pace of Pride in the order of precedence, youth have now taken to chose Army as a career in the last Option. When an IAS guy is posted to Nagaland, Assam etc he fails to report/join citing security threats, gets a huge contingent to protect himself, additional "Risk Allowances" and the works! Why? If there is Internal disturbance any where, in the first place it has been caused by poor policies and bad Administration as well as Political issues, since it is their creation, they should go there and solve it rather than ask for higher compensation! The Armed Forces are instead sent in and then again, as they wash the dirty linen created by Babus and politicians , they are neither compensated nor given due respect. It cannot go on for ever. Some thing will break and I hope it is not the Spirit of the Army.
Sir if this is true then this is indeed a earthquake on Richter scale of 12 for Pak and China.
@Ravi_N Clandestine activities? Are you serious ?
Doing Clandestine op in your own motherland near Afghan border is not known as Clandestine op.
need some clarification on ur statement 'For, everyone today believes that Pakistan's 'zaroorat se ziada thekedaari' attitude will one day (by 2018) cause it to threaten Israel with nuclear WMDs once the Type 032 Qing-class submarines armed with SLBMs & SLCMs start arriving at Ormara's PNS Jinnah naval base'
why would Israel or any other GCC countries gets threatened by Pak?what are socioeconomic reasons or any other reason for that matter? If u look at geography they were miles apart but whereas Iran,afghan were in proximity for Pak nuclear WMD.
Regards
Ron
1) How much of reclaiming PoK was initiated from the Indian side and how much was from being 'nudged' by the US strategists?
Have the Saudis agreed quid-pro-quo to defund their state-sponsoring of Wahhabism and the Saudi terrorist network? Why are the big powers tolerating the Saudi intervention in Yemen, where non radical-Islamist Houthis are being ousted by Saudi-sponsored jihadists?
And what does it matter that the Saudis have access to WMDs and 6 IRBMs? They're literally too dumb to operate them. The Saudi forces require constant availability of European/American technical mercenaries in order to operate their advanced military equipment, like Eurofighters or THAAD. You never said the Saudis were going to be trained on how to operate them.
Do you have any good books that you recommend for learning how a diplomatic nuclear deal was reached with Iran? I thought the US neo-cons wanted to invade Iran after Iraq.
Also can you reveal the UK's contribution to strategic re-pivot across the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Indian subcontinent ? Contrary to popular belief, I think the UK is playing a much larger role than is being perceived.
2) Any news on India's definitive or ad hoc BMD solution by 2018?
3) Please spill the beans for the final part on the mountain warfare series. This would be a good opportunity to discuss the PAF-PLAAF exercises in the Khunjerab Pass region in this context, along with the previous queries raised on this subject.
Anyways VMT for going so far to document all of these developments. You seem quite busy for a semi-retd. economist!
sir,
look at the following page
http://defence.pk/threads/indian-special-forces.43257/page-478
here, u will find several videos of PM Modi mingling with the crowd at random locations where the crowd has not been screened.
all sorts of dangers could be lurking at these places, NaMo has made this a habit..
I want to know if the security arrangements for his security adequate ?
specially in foreign lands..if you see him mingling with crowds in nepal you'll notice that crowd has almost overpowered his security.
can spg manage this ?
it sends shivers down my spine to just think what wrong just 1 person can do in chaos such as nepal.
i just want to know if security for such stunts always adequate, efficient ?
if spg & other agencies practice for these scenarios ?
& how are such large crowds kept under observation when PM is around..
the location in nepal looks like a lower middle class locality..with thousands of people..
how is security for PM insured here ?
Prasunda,
Happy Independence Day to you & to all the readers of the blog.
Now that the die is cast when PM Modi himself mentioned Gilgit Balochistan issue in Independence day speech which means that things are about to get much more serious. Do we expect much more pressure on India Security & Intelligence apparatus in the upcoming days?
Also, Mr. Wang Yi is a very worried man these days. Remember when he blasted the Canadian reporter in a joint press conference with Canadian foreign minister. It appears that something is going on behind the scenes & Chinese are not able to control the situation.
Finally, it we go by 2018 deadline then the incoming US president will have to take a very important national security decision. Assuming that Hillary Clinton wins, this will be on the top of agenda in the defense establishment of US.
Do we see that from the start of 2017, events will move very fast & will also start appearing in the public domain? What will be the trigger point of all this?
As per Wikipedia, Agni-3 is in service while you mentioned it.s not. Which one is right?
Dear Prasun,
It can not be true because its not in India's interest and it violates MTCR. Further we donot need to please a country which has patronage and security cover of US.There's no strategic advantage to India by doing so. Please prove me wrong.
Happy Independence Day to all my Indian brothers, sisters and comrades.
Prasun .. I can't help but think that there is a logical fallacy in your narrative WRT KSA and Iran .. It is common knowledge that Iran and KSA hate each other ..If India has provided Agni 3s to KSA ,those missiles are meant to deter only one nation, Iran ..And won't that enrage Iran against India ? Expecting the GCC countries to side with Iran against Pak ...well that really sounds like a stretch..After your prediction on the Pak Afghan relationship came true I am inclined to believe you .. however such massive machinations ..it boggles the mind .
To PRAV: Alright, let's analyse the 'logical fallacy' in my argument. If one were to accept this PoV, then what explains China being Iran's largest trading partner & foreign investor when it has armed Iran's arch enemies (KSA & Pakistan) with both ballistic missiles & nuclear WMDs? Wasn't it China that supplied the first MRBMs to KSA in the late 1980s? Hasn't China exported several types of weapons to the GCC member-states since the 1980s & didn't it arm Iraq in the 1980s? So why does China remain Iran's favourite FDI investor? Similarly, Why has Russia armed both China & Vietnam--who consider each other as enemies--& yet Russia isn't hated by either China or Vietnam?
Huh.. Yes that is very true . I never considered it in that way . I had read since (about 1-2 years back) that China is about to supply KSA with come of the older DF series missiles, Can you confirm that this will never happen. At the time I found it stage that Iran and Israel never raised any objections about this deal.
To PRAV: LoLz! That's realpolitik for you! What stays permanent are only interests, nothing else. Hell, even Kingship is never influenced by Kinship. Therefore, one has to adapt, be flexible & be ready to change the goalposts whenever reqd. There were rumours in 2013 that DF-21C MRBMs had been supplied by China to KSA but that event in reality never took place. The MRBMs that China had previously supplied were all armed with conventional warheads. KSA wanted a nuclear deterrent, meaning a nuclear-capable MRBM. Since India could not supply nuclear warheads & only MRBMs could be, Israel stepped in & a military-industrial alliance reportedly emerged which ensured that India would share design deta with the Israelis so that an appropriate n-warhead design could be perfected. Of course all this with Uncle Sam's & the UK's blessings. And neither did all this emerge out of the blue. If you go back to 2007 & 2009 & 2012, you will come across various photos of the then Saudi NSA Prince Bandar bin Sultan making official visits to India & the PIB releasing those photos showing the Prince meeting Dr MMS. But what transpired at such meetings was never explained or analysed by anyone. Only in 2015 news emerged about India hosting secret KSA-Israel parleys. Politically, NaMo can domestically exploit all this since the Arab countries will discreetly let the word out about how India became the nett provider of security of the IOR (inclusive of the KSA's eastern coastline) by guaranteeing the security of KSA & its twin holy sites. And no one from the Muslim world (except the Pakistanis) will dare allege that NaMo is anti-Muslim or India under BJP rule is anti-Muslim.
Happy Independence Day to All
Prasun thanks for the Israeli Ops links, you have put our brains in overdrive by stating that "Possibly about 6 Agni-3 ballistic missiles (that never entered service in India) have ended up in Saudi Arabia (to replace the CSS-2 MRBMs of Chinese origin that were supplied in the late 1980s) minus their nuclear warheads, with the Israelis being the supplier of such warheads" Isn't the activity illegal according to international law or also the Agni-3 is an advanced technology why will any one place it in foreign hands and I will again rebuff question raised by others why does GCC need that kind of stuff? Is it to assert its supremacy over other GCC states. They will not be using it ever and Israel will be threatened by any GCC having access to this stuff again Israelis have given assurance to provide cover to Saudis now this is more serious. Will it not give Iran second thoughts of starting its nuke program all over again? Then again engaging in diplomacy with GCC, Israel and Iran to ensure no one is enraged with such activity by us and then comes US? Don't tell its all going on with the secret blessing of US and assistance of Israel with Iran being informed about what is going on? Awaiting in depth information from you
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/web-edits/pm-narendra-modi-independence-day-speech-pakistan-balochistan-pok-red-fort-2976773/
Looks like there are several Indians who still don't know that when India refers to PoK, it encompasses Gilgit & Baltistan as ell, since they were both integral parts of the erstwhile princely state of J & K. Thus, to state that PoK & Gilgit-Baltistan are two separate entities is factually wrong.
Latest Ground-Report from Gwadar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-V613pty_k
Pakistan Navy Profiled: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6cOO__fkZ8
The only checkpost along the IB where the Indian tricolor is hosted inside Pakistani territory & the Pakistani flag is hoisted inside Indian territory:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmYoXyiA5rE
J & K Issue Debated by Deplorable Indian Marxist Turncoats:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5WnZ-FlWsI
PrasunDa,
Part of Balochistan is in Iran and another part in Afghanistan. Therefore, if Balochistan secedes from Pakistan it is possible that Baloch people will try to integrate the Iranian & Afghan part with Balochistan. So, will Iran & Afghanistan want Balochistan to secede from Pakistan?
Thanks,
Sujoy
Whatever Modi said today brings the 2018 nearer. You are getting vindicated once again.
Rajesh Mishra
@prasun da
i am bit disappointed that you havent answered my querries, hope to get them one day
a few more question though
8. Do you think that PM Modi mentioning Balochistan, PoK, Gilgit Baltistan is a result of paradigm shift that is a result of strategy adopted by ex PM Manmohan Singh that resulted in Sharm al sheikh statement where Balochistan was 1st mentioned
9. you said India supplied atleast 6 Agni 3 ready to fire condition with warhead supplied by Israel designed for that purpose, does it mean that India will also benefit from the warhead design
10. You said that due to non availability of high strength steel ship building in India but if Tata steel has developed graphene coated high strength steel what is the problem.
hope to get answers
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
Hello Prasun,
Looking at the ground realities as portrayed in the Gwadar port and its adjoining areas, there seems to be more gas than shit in spite of the whole project starting in early 2000s and so called commercial port is without any ships. I see this as a scam or a white elephant that will gobble up the resources what so ever present there and alienate the local masses further.
Thanks,Ganesh
Hello Prasun,
Thanks for the you tube link highlighting the Marxist Leninist politburo member Kavita Krishnan trying to establish some credibility among pressitutes to sell her ideas across the spectrum and hope somebody values her with a all expenses paid foreign trip. I suppose the unhindered operations upon the Maoists and other terrorists of various hues and colors have rattled her and her colleagues. I believe, when Mr Ganapathy is put to rest in his hideout, she will shut up and hopefully join East India company aka Congress for employment as Diggi raja's assistant.
Thanks,Ganesh
Prasun K. Sengupta said...
To GANESH: I had seen the entire master-plan for Gwadar's development way back in 2007 & in it the pride of place was given NOT to Gwadar, but Ormara, where PNS Jinnah is now located. After 2011, the Chinese urgently wanted to construct an airport in Gwadar & therefore they totally financed that project & it is now up & running. China is now insisting that the entire area housing the airport & port be fenced in 3 tiers, because it does not trust Pakistani assurances of foolproof security being provided.
Gwadar's real importance to China & Pakistan will be as the receiving port for all the heavy engineering equipment that will be required for building the submarine base at Ormara where the Type 032 Qing-class submarines armed with SLBMs & SLCMs are planned for homeporting. From Gwadar all the heavy equipment will be transported eastwards via the Makran Highway. As for the wet-dreams of Pakistanis concerning transportation connectivity with China via the Khunjerab Pass, this is a physical impossibility since that Pass remains closed for almost 4 months every year, & secondly, no civil engineering feat capable of defeating the forces of nature has been accomplished by any human being to date. In fact, the only stable & survivable land connectivity route to Xinjiang traverses not the Karakoram mountain range, but the Wakhan Corridor which belongs to Afghanistan. And it is this Corridor that Pakistan wants to physically covet. However, such plans have now hit the wall since India has at last decided to officially reclaim PoK (inclusive of Gilgit-Baltistan) & after taking up the Baloch liberation issue, India is now poised to back Afghanistan's claim about non-recognition of the Durand Line. One will hear Indian endorsements of Afghanistan's PoV in the coming days, rest assured. So what can Pakistan possibly do? Threaten Afghanistan with TNWs? Well, I sure hope they try to do so & then we will see the collective wrath of the whole world descending upon Pakistan. That China is firmly now on the backfoot both in South & Southeast Asia should help matters a lot more.
Dada,
Seems like some of our patriotic songs have suddenly acquired a new meaning..
"...Aaj Himalay ki choti se humne fir lalkara hai.....
Door hato ai duniya walo Hindustan humara hai...;
And, 'naye daur me likhenge milkar nayi kahani, Hum Hindustani...
And Without doubt 'Hum honge Kaamyaab, Hum honge kaamyaab.....'
And if the Agni 3 transfer and India hosting secret KSA-Israel parlays is true then,
'Apni chatri tumko dede kabhi jo barse pani,
kabhi naye packet me beche tumko cheez purani....Phir bhi dil hai Hindustani....'
Jai Hind!
To SPYKAR: Whaaaaaattttt!!! Why "door hato ai duniya walo"??? And that too in this age of globalisation? What if a future US President tells the TATAs & INFOSYS "door hato ai Hindustani walo"?
Meanwhile, the 'desi' bandalbaaz is spreading his wings & going regional! Listen to what rubbish he's dishing out to a Pakistani TV channel from 24.43 omwards:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9EbLV8GB5s
This 'desi' nitwit doesn't have the intellect to realise that major announcements from the ramparts of the Red Fort & that too during Independence Day are not thought of or conceived a week ago, but are the subjects of long, drawn-out deliberations not only within India, but also outside India & involving friendly countries. It is only after a regional consensus is reached that a policy statement is officially shared with the public.
The 'desi' bandalbaaz also does not know that the localities where curfew has been imposed account for only 7% of the Kashmir Valley, & only 3% of the entire state of J & K. So how does this purport to represent the claim that the whole of J & K is aflame is beyond one's imagination.
need some clarification on ur statement 'For, everyone today believes that Pakistan's 'zaroorat se ziada thekedaari' attitude will one day (by 2018) cause it to threaten Israel with nuclear WMDs once the Type 032 Qing-class submarines armed with SLBMs & SLCMs start arriving at Ormara's PNS Jinnah naval base'
why would Israel or any other GCC countries gets threatened by Pak?what are socioeconomic reasons or any other reason for that matter? If u look at geography they were miles apart but whereas Iran,afghan were in proximity for Pak nuclear WMD.
Regards
Ron
Prasun the same bandelbaaz is selling f16 and gripen for mmrca in todays tweets.
http://idrw.org/army-recommends-replacing-pellets-with-pepper-in-kashmir/
why don't security forces replace pellet gun with Active denial system ?
http://m.rediff.com/news/column/why-not-use-iafs-fighter-fleet-for-organ-transport/20160816.htm
Really su30mki can fly without aso , so use it as ambulance .. why do spend on air ambulance when we have su30 ???
PRASUN DA,
You rightly said that the curfew has been imposed account for only 7% of the Kashmir Valley, & only 3% of the entire state of J & K.There are Shias, Gujjar, Ladakhi people stayed in kashmir. What are their thought? The Indian media always publicized a section of kashmir.
JIHAD is the force-multiplier of Pakistan.How Pakistan react in future after NAMO's Independence-day speech.
Prasun da,
http://www.defencenews.in/article/India-lays-Red-carpet-for-global-small-arms-manufacturers-7528
How much true the above news is.
Dear Prasun,
http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/91269/
Turkey is gollowing Pakistan’s Descent Into Islamization. Both having same ideology. Both are politically & Militarily intertwined.
Please give your comments.
Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar
agnis supplied to SA with US blessings - i get that. but UK's blessings!? was that a typo prasun bhai?
I guess the 2018-19 game you are saying have started this independence day?
To VED: MTCR was never an internationally binding treaty, but just a regime for club-members, just like the NSG. Furthermore, when this deal took place with KSAS, India was not a member of MTCR.
To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Beggars cannot be choosers. Plus, whenever a hull is being refurbished, it is effectively being zero-lifed. 2) Correct. 3) Leave that to the ASF. 4) What is 1 month? For how many months were those vigilante bastards encroaching upon private land in Vrindavan? 5) Not at all. Who are the traditional fruit orchard owners & commodity traders in J & K? 6) Do you have a better solution? Those T-72CIAs are not there to attack hostile MBTs. They are there for an entirely different purpose & that’s why the T-90S tanks were not deployed there. 7) And who/what will provide the oxygen-levels reqd for operating diesel engines at those altitudes? Do you have any such engine available with you? 8) Of course. 9) Not necessarily. Because India already possesses the reqd sophistication in terms of warhead design. 10) I had never made any such statement.
To BHOUTIK< Arey bhai, for connecting the dots, you will have to find out which OEM from which country has been the supplier of all heavy-duty electro-hydraulic systems that’s reqd for operating the cannisters of ballistic missile TELs in service with India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC), & whether this very same OEM is also the supplier of heavy-duty elevators reqd for operations inside underground tunnels of the SFC.
To RON: You need to check out the range of the SLBM that will go on board the Type 032 Qing-class submarine & then only will you realise the potential threat to Israel.
To GOPU: 1) It was initiated by the US neo-cons way back in 2004. India woke up to the fact only in 2009 after the true implications of CPEC WRT the Wakhan Corridor had been made known to India. 2) The Houthis of Yemen are the ones that have violated all agreements that they had inked with both the Arab League & GCC. 3) Such nuclear WMDs are in a recessed state & not in ready-to-launch mode. Adequate protocols have been worked out to operationalise them whenever an existential threat to KSA & its twin holy sites emerges. 4) The neo-cons never wanted to invade Iran, the target was always Syria & Libya since these 3 countries had together invested in ways to acquire nuclear WMDs from DPRK via China & Pakistan. 5) The UK is indeed playing a far greater role behind-the-scenes. Folks forget that even before the 1st US citizen landed in Afghanistan post-9/11, the SOF personnel of the UK & India were already prepping the warriors of the Northern Alliance for forthcoming battles. 6) Who needs them for 2018 now when the LEMOA is now due for signature & this will enable THAAD to be deployed inside India by US forces during any emergency?
To PRATEEK: Security arrangements in India are never adequate & the answer always is to saturate the areas with security personnel who engage in repetitive checks and frisking.
To ANIONE: The security landscape is in deed getting very interesting. While the political parties of Pakistan are busy fighting one another in order to grab power, the PPP leadership continues to live in self-imposed exile in Dubai & London due to irreconcilable differences with the PA, with the PML-N rearing to expose the PPP’s financial mis-deeds. The MQM is now opening a big office in Washington DC to highlight its cause with the US Congress. Add to that the moral & political support from India for the Baloch liberation cause & you will see the entire southern part of Pakistan longing for secession from the Pakistani federation. This in turn will directly benefit both Iran & Afghanistan. Further north, the TTP, numbering some 350,000 inclusive of family-members, will ensure that the entire KPK & northern Balochistan remains volatile. If the PA wants to fence the entire Durand Line for border management purposes, this will entail a huge drain on financial resources & consequently, Pakistan’s internal security budget will have to equal its annual defence spending—which is clearly unsustainable. So, if the PA decides to cross the Durand Line & attack the TTP inside Afghan territory, the Afghans will have to retaliate in kind & this explains why the ISAF Commander in Kabul was recently in New Delhi for expediting Indian military aid to Afghanistan. The ASF want more Mi-25 attack helicopters so that it can defeat any Pakistani land aggression. In case the PA calls in the PAF for assistance, then the ASF will have to invite the USAF & IAF to provide air superiority & protect Afghan airspace. If the PA raises the ante further & threatens Afghanistan with TNWs, then that will become the trigger for multinational coalition surgical strikes from the land, sea & air against Pakistan aimed at degrading & decapitating the PA, PAF & PN. This then will worsen Pakistan’s internal security situation & only then will humanitarian military intervention become necessary for liberating Sindh & Balochistan from Pakistan.
ur right SLBM is potential threat to Israel but why would PAK will threaten Israel dont u think they got their hands full on eastern side,western side?
Regards
Ron
Well, Prasun Da, that song was from the pre-independence era, 1943 film 'Kismet, it even had the Brits in fix, whether '...door hato ai duniya walo Hindustan hamara hai', meant 'duniya walo' as them or the World War II aggressors! Perhaps that's why the song writer to felt, it safe to add the lines 'German ho ya Japani...' to ensure film's release.
Oviously in current times, 'duniya wale' would mean 'chini ho ya Pakistani..' if you can read between the lines.
And I'm all for globalisation as long as that doesn't include globalisation of terror by pakistan and globalisation of insecurity and cheap products by China.
Prasun Da, first many thanks for such a insightful and informative threads one after another for quenching our thirst, BTW,
1 .Has China leapfrogged than other countries in terms of 'Hack - Proof' communication by launching quantum satellite, I think we are way behind, aren't any research in this level is going on here, will this allow PRC to full proof their military communication network from hacking, while our own network are in continuous threat of hacking ?
http://idrw.org/china-launches-hack-proof-communications-satellite/#more-104551
Kindly share your views on it.
2. Has not it gone largely unnoticed by our media
http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/chennai/IIT-Madras-develops-warning-system-for-gas-turbines/2016/06/19/article3489200.ece
Thanks in advance.
----Sumanta
Kindly share your views
Dear Prasun da,
Please provide your valuable opinion on following queries and oblige.
1. Modi not going for NAM summit in Venezuela.
2. Parrikar to sign LEMOA in coming US visit.
3. You said T-72 are't put for tank to tank battle then what is objective?
4. Any update on Rafale deal after submission of report by price negotiation committee.
Regards,
Pawan
@Sumanta I don't think their is any word like quantom communication.
The right word is entanglement, and the first test of communication by entanglement was done some years ago. But that was very primitive.
And China claiming they launched quantum communication sat. Lol.
Another lollypop from China.
But if they talking about Quantom Encryption, then here it is
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_cryptography
But still that is in primitive stage.
To PAWAN: Later this afternoon, there will; be the annual Meet-the-Press event at the MoD, to be hosted by the RM. Let's see if some clarity emerges from there. Now, here's the nitwit who has been sitting in southern Kashmir & belching out rumours about the whole of J & K going up in flames:
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/kashmir-protests-all-party-meet-pm-modi-rajnath-singh-burhan-wani-2969273/
And here's an excellent retort:
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/kashmir-unrest-stone-pelting-indian-arjmy-burhan-wani-death-pm-modi-2979388/
And here's Salman Khurshid's delusory mumbo-jumbo whenever he treis to be more Nehruvianb than Pandit 'Chacha' Nehru himself:
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/kashmir-protests-all-party-meet-pm-modi-rajnath-singh-burhan-wani-2969273/
This Khurshid fella was the same one who as FM in 2012 told visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai that India will be unable to supply any kind of offensive weaponry to Afghanistan. When Dr MMS came to know about it from Karzai, he went livid & read out the riot act to Khurshid & warned him never again to make policy decisions of such nature. Now here he is again, goinbg off in a tangent & obfuscating the entire issue.
Interesting reads:
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/happymon-jacob-on-indiapakistan-border-loc-security/article8999610.ece?homepage=true
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/bangladesh-backs-modi-on-balochistan/article8999721.ece?homepage=true
Hello Prasun, based on this news snippet GOI has started mainstream propaganda war with Pakistan. I think Modi government is going to make war as one of its achievements and if won decisively will get great electoral dividend http://idrw.org/india-bangladesh-to-jointly-produce-1971-war-documentary/
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2138862-chinas-newest-tank-gets-off-on-the-wrong-foot/
Raj
Dada, Some recent interesting scrolls :
http://scroll.in/article/813189/these-25-pictures-summarise-every-pakistani-social-media-war
http://scroll.in/article/811514/when-the-spirit-of-jinnah-was-invoked-in-a-seance-and-it-lamented-for-pakistan
http://scroll.in/article/812797/these-pictures-capture-more-than-2300-years-of-karachis-history
http://scroll.in/article/813864/why-do-indian-and-pakistani-textbooks-tell-wildly-different-histories
http://scroll.in/article/814023/the-call-of-the-winged-dagger-the-glorious-history-of-indias-special-forces
http://scroll.in/article/814077/who-will-be-the-next-pakistan-army-chief
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1160818/jsp/nation/story_103100.jsp#.V7WjsFt951s
Salman Khurshid is right in saying one thing though, that "I am a senior spokesperson till I am sacked from the Congress..."
To RAJ: Less than 700 Type 96A MBTs were produced by NORINCO. Only 400 Type 96B MBTs have been built along with 400 Type 99G MBTs. These all make use of Ukrainian air-cooled engines similar to the one on the Al Khalid MBT & therefore they cannot operate in the Tibetan Plateau or in Aksai China. Hence the ZTQ-105 medium tank has been developed with 780hp water-cooled engine of Russian design for operating in Tibet. Presently, less than 40 Type 86A MBTs are available in Tibet, while 150 of them are in Chemgdu.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Protesters-to-be-charged-under-anti-terrorism-laws-Pakistan-on-China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor-row/articleshow/53756256.cms
Agree, Arpit, as I think, they are trying to put across 'quantum encryption' btw there are research going on in the country like Australia,
http://indianexpress.com/article/technology/technology-others/scientists-working-to-develop-most-powerful-cyber-security/
also, this research paper published by Asst. Prof. Ms. Deepa Harihar Kulkarni, Unversity of Pune,
http://www.ijsrp.org/research_paper_jun2012/ijsrp-June-2012-105.pdf
on Research Directions in Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Key Distribution, I don't know whether any type of these above mentioned research is going on here under Govt. Funding as in the case of PRC , Australia etc.That's the reason I am waiting for views of Prasun Da.
Dada,
Can you make out the hardware shown here -
http://asian-defence-news.blogspot.in/2016/08/chinese-pla-navy-new-anti-submarine.html
http://asian-defence-news.blogspot.in/2016/08/chinas-latest-anti-aircraft-missiles.html
Prasun have you watched the discovery documentary on PARA SF? What is your verdict? I wonder why the army never allowed a documentary to me made on them when they are so bloody deadly & impressive. Honestly I was absolutely not expecting them to be on that level. Some aspects of the training were fcked up & i was wondering whether they put it in there just for the publicity lol.
Is garuds/marcos training as intensive? What about SFF? Can you please do a post on special forces of india?
why no one is taking any axn on this shit place and on these bastards
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCea7jy0XMQ4uJuxoBDVg4vA/videos
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/chinas-bullet-trains-deliver-a-first-a-crossover-at-420-km-per-hour-1431856
where is our position?how did china went ahead of every country in this planet and built robust and sophisticated high speed railway network?
ur insights on this?
Regards
Ron
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