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Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Islamic Republic of Iran’s RMA Analysed-2

PADAJA’s Regional Air-Defence Network
Command-and-control at the regional level is provided by the IRIADF’s or Khatam al-Anbiya Air-Defence HQ’s (PADAJA) nine regional commands, each headquartered in a sector operations center (SOC). These are sometimes referred to as divisions. Each region has authority over a number of air-defence groups—each equivalent to a Brigade—and independent sites for radars. The regional commands are as follows:
1) Northern Region: Headquartered in Teheran, it spans part or all of the Teheran, Alborz, and Mazandaran provinces.
2) Central Region: Headquartered in Isfahan, it spans part or all of the Isfahan, Qom, and Markazi provinces. Its command is co-located with that of TAB-8.
3) Northwest Region: Headquartered in Tabriz, it spans East and West Azerbaijan, Ardebil, Zanjan, and part of Kurdistan province. Its command is co-located with that of TAB-2.
4) Western Region: Headquartered in Hamedan, it spans parts of Kurdistan and Markazi provinces, as well as Hamedan, Kermanshah, Ilam, and Lorestan. Its command is co-located with that of TAB-3.
5) Southwest Region: Headquartered at an unknown location—likely co-located with existing air bases at Omidiyeh or Dezful—it spans the Khuzestan province and parts of nearby Kohgiluyeh va Boyer Ahmed. It includes at least four groups (Ahvaz, Dezful, Omidiyeh, Behbahan). It is frequently referred to as the 4th Air-Defence Region.
6) Southern Region: Headquartered in Bandar Bushehr, it spans the Bushehr and Shiraz provinces, as well as Kharg Island.
7) Southeast Region: Headquartered in Bandar Abbas, it spans the Hormozgan province, and part of Sestan-Baluchistan, as well as the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding islands. It is frequently referred to as the 6th Air-Defence Region.
8) Eastern Region: Headquartered in Birjand, it spans South Khorasan, parts of Sestan-Baluchistan and Razavi Khorasan, and all of the Yazd and Kerman provinces.
9) Northeast Region: Headquartered in Mashhad, it spans the Razavi and North Khorasan provinces, as well as parts of Golestan. Its command is located at TAB-14.
During the days of monarchy in the 1970s, the ground-based air-defence network comprised MIM-23A/B Hawk MR-SAMs (150 missiles acquired in 1966, 39 launchers and 1,811 missiles worth $687 million acquired between 1974 and 1979), and 81 Rapier SHORADS launchers with 2,450 missiles. During the Iran-Iraq War, 25 Hawk launchers and 235 missiles were delivered by the US via Israel in 1986 under the Iran-Contra deal.
Ground-based air-defence cannons in-service included 100 Oerlikon Contraves GDF-003 35mm systems procured in 1975 with related 50 Super-Fledermaus fire-control radars, 100 ZSU-57-2 SPAAGs procured from the USSR in 1967 along with 200 second-hand ZSU-23-4 Schilka SPAAGs between 1973 and 1978.
In the late 1980s, Iran also fielded seven Almaz S-200VE Vega LR-SAM Batteries (comprising 42 launchers) with a range of up to 200nm, covering much of the western, central and southern portions of the nation. 10 more S-200VE Batteries were procured from Ukraine in 1992.
Throughout the 1990s, Iran also procured seven HQ-2J (Sayyad-1) MR-SAM Batteries with 356 missiles and three JY-14 radars from China between 1999 and 2001; two self-propelled 2K12/Kvadrat Batteries with 120 3M9 MR-SAMs in 1995-1996, and 29 Tor-M1E TELs and 750 9M338 missiles (for seven Batteries) worth $700 million in early December 2005—all from Russia.
This was followed by the procurement of four S-300PS LR-SAM Batteries (two each from Belarus and Croatia), using 5V55KD missiles) along with related 30N6 and Nebo SVU VHF radars, 36D6 surveillance radars, 76N6 low-altitude detection radars, 30N6 fire-control systems and 5P85-1 launch vehicles.
In 2007, Iran ordered four S-300PMU2 LR-SAM batteries with 150 48N6 missiles worth $800 million from Russia. These were delivered between July and October 2016 and were test-fired in-country on March 4, 2017 during EX Damavand.
Also procured were two 1L119 Nebo SVU mobile solid-state digital VHF-band radars from Russia in 2007 and 2010, and two Kvant 1L222 Avtobaza radar jamming and deception systems in 2011, which operate over the Ku and X bands (8-18 GHz frequency range)and whose effective range is 150km. Each Avtobaza covers a 360-degree hemisphere, monitoring up to 60 targets simultaneously. 
In the VSHORADS/MANPADS and SHORADS arenas, Iran procured from China 500 HN-5A missiles between 1986 and 1988, 1,100 QW-1s (Misagh-1/Vanguard) between 1996 and 2006, and 650 QW-2/Misagh-2 between 2006 and 2015, and six Batteries of Shahab Thaqeb/FM-80 SHORADS with 250 missiles.
As far as domestic innovations go, a motorised version of the ZSU-57-2, called ‘Bahaman’ has been developed. This system comprises two 57mm air-cooled S-68 guns that are fed from magazines. Each magazine holds four rounds. The Bahaman fires fragmentation-tracers against airborne targets and armour-piercing tracers against ground-based targets.
For defence against land-attack cruise missiles (LACM), Iran contracted China’s Sichuan Hua King Machinery Manufacturing Co to develop the ‘Asefeh’ 3-barrel 23mm cannon that has a rate of fire of 1,500 rounds per minute. It fires both 23 x 115 or 23 x 152 cartridges. The 23 x 152 round is licence-manufactured by the Iranian Defence Industries Organisation (DIO) and is used with the ZU-23-2 family of light anti-aircraft guns. It has an average overall length of 237mm and a belt diameter of 35mm. The use of a larger round and heavier projectile with the ‘Asefeh’ produces a higher recoil force. The 23 x 152 case is belted. The ‘Asefeh’ entered service in late 2013.
In the early 1990s, Teheran decided to replace its MIM-23 and HQ-2J MR-SAMs with a new-generation system that could be used for both ground-based air-defence as well as naval air-defence. Accordingly, some examples of the IRIN’s in-stock RIM-66 Standard MR-SAMs (128 of which were procured between 1976 and 1978) were supplied to both Russia and China for re-engineering.
In Russia, the Tikhomirov Scientific Research Institute of Instrument Design (NIIP), the Novator Design Bureau, the Altair Design Bureau, the Dolgoprudniy Scientific and Production Plant, MNII Agat and Mariyskiy Machine-Building Plant were tasked with developing the two variants of the MR-SAM.
In China, the China National Precision Machinery Import-Export Corp (CPMIEC) led the re-engineering effort. The Russian end-products were the Buk-M1E for ground forces, and the naval 3S90E Shtil-1—both of which used the 9M317ME missile.
In Iran, this system became known as ‘Raad (Thunder) while the missile was called ‘Ta’er-2’. CPMIEC’s solution was the LY-80 family of vertically-launched MR-SAMs. Following competitive evaluations, Iran selected CPMIEC’s solution and thus was born the ‘Sayyad-2’ MR-SAM for ground-based air-defence, and the LY-80N naval variant, known in Iran as ‘Mehrab’. 
CPMIEC has in the previous decade also supplied 24 S-band target detection radars (the same used by China’s LY-60 SHORADS) for replacing the Oerlikon Contraves-supplied Skyguard/Super Fledermaus fire-control systems. This is known in Iran as the ‘Kashef-1’ radar.
As for the much-touted Bavar-373 air-defence system, it is in reality a trilateral industrial cooperation project involving China, North Korea and Iran that had commenced way back in 2004. While CETC Int’l of China has developed and supplied the Qamar active phased-array engagement radar and the YLC-2V ‘Meraj’ 3-D S-band early warning radar, the Sayyad-3 LR-SAM is a re-engineered HQ-9 missile produced by North Korea for its Pon’gae-5/KN-06 LR-SAM system). The complete Bavar-373 system will be ready for service-induction by 2020.
As an interim measure, the PADAJA has undertaken a limited upgrade of its stockpiles of MIM-23 MR-SAMs. Known as the ‘Mersad’ air-defence system, each Battery uses four types of radars.
The target detection radar, called ‘Kavosh’, is an upgraded clone of the original MPQ-50 and its maximum range has been increased to 150km and an IFF transponder has been added. A new continuous-wave acquisition radar called ‘Jouiya’ is used to detect and track low-altitude airborne targets.
The high-power illuminator (called ‘Hadi’) is an upgraded version of the MPQ-46, with an additional optronic tracker being attached. For area air-defence, the Mersad uses a 250km-range ‘Hafez’ early warning radar. The re-lifed missiles are now called ‘Shaheen’.
 
On May 25, 2014 the PADAJA unveilled two new systems. These were: 1) ‘Fakour’ fibre-optic command-and-control system, which is responsible for gathering, fusing, and distributing tactical information within the IRIADF’s sectors. 2) The ‘Rasool’ secure communications system, which is responsible for linking the Matla ul-Fajr and Fath-14 VHF-band radars with other elements of the air-defence network. 
The Fakour is employed as a command-post for fusing and distributing sensor information at the tactical-level. This means gathering data from a range of active/passive sensors, which is next fuzed to produce a unified situational awareness picture of the airspace that in turn can be used to cue airborne and ground-based air-defence weapons. Based on descriptions of the Fakour’s compatibility with the IRIADF’s sector-operations-centres (SOC), it can be inferred that the Fakour will be deployed within existing SOCs. The Fakour itself comprises three elements: The Operations Section, which is mounted on a large containerised trailer, and is responsible for processing received data and using it to plan and coordinate subordinate operations through seven workstations. The Communications Section, which is mounted on a smaller containerised trailer and is responsible for signals reception and transmission. This helps protect the operations section by allowing it to function without emitting. For intra-system communications, the different sections are linked by fibre-optic or conventional cables, and for external communications this section is equipped with HF, VHF, UHF, AM/FM, and microwave radios, which can be used for audio and data transfer (at a reported rate of 32mbit/s). The Communications-Relay Section is equipped with a truck-mounted microwave relay station. All elements of Fakour were supplied by China’s CETC Int’l.
The ‘Rasool’ is a fibre-optic communications node associated with VHF-band target acquisition radars. It can be used to integrate the radar with other elements of a local air-defence network, or with distant command-and-control centres. The Matla ul-Fajr radar family includes the MuF-1 and MuF-2, which are upgraded derivatives of the Soviet-era P-12/18 radars. Both operate in the VHF bandwidth, which has led to them being described as counter-stealth radars. They are visually characterised by their distinctive Yagi-style antennae arranged in rows on a retractable mast mounted on a containerised trailer.  The MuF-1 is a 2-D (range, azimuth) radar with a maximum range of 300km and altitude of 20km. It is characterised by its 12 antennae arrayed in two rows of six. The MuF-2 is a 3-D (range, azimuth, height) radar with a maximum range of 480km. It is characterised by its 32 antennae arrayed in four rows of eight.
The ‘Rasool’ comprises two vehicles: a communications shelter, and a relay station. The latter is the same as the one used with the Fakour, and comprises a truck-mounted microwave station (32 mbit/s capacity). The communications shelter, mounted on an Iveco 4 x 4, is fitted with HF, VHF, UHF, and microwave radios, and associated encryption and recording hard/software. 
Linking the Rasool with the radar itself is via fibre-optic wiring. An example of how the Rasool is employed can be found at the Fordow fuel enrichment plant (FFEP), and the air-defence group assigned to protect it. Assets deployed for the FFEP’s point-defence include one MuF-1 radar for two half-strength MIM-23 Batteries, and a handful of ZU-23-2 Batteries, plus a small truck fitted with a mast-mounted microwave transmitter, and a larger containerised Battary command port trailer, which itself is linked to a smaller container with an unknown roof-mounted transmitter/receiver.
Presently, the PADAJA exercises command-and-control over 24 air-defence radar stations and 41 active SAM sites inside Iran. The HQ-2J sites are shown in red, MIM-23 sites are orange, S-200VE sites are purple, 2K12/Kvadrat sites are bright green, and Tor-M1E sites are faded green. There are seven active HQ-2J sites, 22 active MIM-23 sites. seven active S-200VE sites, six SAM deployment locations with two sites occupied by 2K12/Kvadrat Batteries, with the remaining four being occupied by Tor-M1Es. 
In addition, there are 31 unoccupied, prepared HQ-2J sites, and seven S-200VE Batteries spread throughout the country. The four northernmost S-200VE sites are positioned to defend the northern borders and the region surrounding the capital of Teheran. A fifth site is for defending facilities in and around Isfahan in central Iran, including the Natanz nuclear facility. 
The last two sites are at Bandar Abbas and Bushehr and provide coverage over the Strait of Hormuz and the northern half of the Persian Gulf, respectively. There are five key areas defended by MR-SAM systems: Teheran, Isfahan, Natanz, Bushehr, and Bandar Abbas. HQ-2J sites are currently 33% occupied, with MIM-23 sites being approximately 50% occupied. Teheran is defended by five MIM-23 sites, two HQ-2J Batteries, and a 2K12/Kvadrat Battery. 
There are also four empty sites in the same area. The southwestern two sites are prepared for HQ-2Js, while the northwest and southeast sites are prepared for MIM-23s. Were the empty sites to be occupied, they would form an inner MIM-23 barrier and an outer HQ-2J barrier oriented to defend against threats from the west and south. 
However, this layout is a legacy leftover from the Iran-Iraq War. Two S-200VE sites are also in the vicinity, and the other two S-200VE sites to the east and west also provide limited coverage of the capital. There are two MIM-23 sites and one HQ-2J site in the vicinity of Isfahan. One of the MIM-23 sites, as well as the S-200VE site in the area, is located on the grounds of TAB-8, with the MIM-23 site situated to provide point-defence of the air base. The HQ-2J site and the remaining MIM-23 site are located south of Isfahan proper. An empty MIM-23 site is also located in Isfahan, representing a dispersal site for the Battery at TAB-8.
Nuclear-related industrial facilities near Natanz are afforded layered, hierarchical air-defence coverage by SHORADS and MR-SAMs. Natanz is defended by one HQ-2J site, three MIM-23 sites, one 2K12/Kvadrat battery, and four Tor-M1E TELARs. The SHORADS and MR-SAMs were first deployed between September 2006 and September 2009. The Bushehr region is defended by four MIM-23 sites and an HQ-2J Battery. Two MIM-23 sites are located on the grounds of the Bushehr military complex, with a third site being located offshore on Kharg Island, while the HQ-2J Battery is located further inland from the military complex nearer to Choghadak. TAB-6 is also home to an S-200VE Battery. There are three unoccupied HQ-2J sites and a single unoccupied MIM-23 site in the area as well. Three unoccupied sites are situated around the nuclear complex, perhaps suggesting that any weapons-related work has been moved from the facility to one of the various inland nuclear R & D locations, such as Natanz. This would appear to be a sensible course of action, given the serious vulnerability of the coastal Bushehr nuclear facility to enemy activity approaching from the Persian Gulf region. The remaining unoccupied HQ-2J site is located on an islet northeast of Kharg Island. Bandar Abbas is defended by one HQ-2J Battery and one MIM-23 Battery. There is also an S-200VE site in the region.

147 comments:

Ravi said...

Thanks, Prasun. Lot of of info; needs time to digest. Are you planning something similar on Pakistan? I saw you article about Pakistan's new acquisitions of missiles.

The Xeno said...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/officials-pakistan-shoots-down-iranian-drone-near-border/2017/06/20/2ad9b242-55dc-11e7-840b-512026319da7_story.html

What do you think would be the fallout?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To XENO: The downed Iranian UAV was most probably a China-supplied Mohajer 4B Nimble Loong tactical UAV. By the way, each LDP today from Turkey or elsewhere costs US$5 million off-the-shelf. Therefore, for anyone to to suggest that Pakistan will pay a total of $24.9 million for 16 ASELPODs on the JF-17 is pure baloney/hogwash.

To SENTHIL KUMAR: Are the US and Russia Headed for Conflict in Syria?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tinfr2QsTcM

To KANE: VMT. More sections will follow, like the IRI Army, IRI Navy & the IRGC’s Strategic Rocket Forces.

To RAD: Videoclips from Paris Air Show 2017”

V-22 Evolves: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTQDOygi7J4

France at Le Bourget: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1-whqMxPbQ

F-35 Aerial Displays: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93NdwZAeXhI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUoa-T_aRjM

Pathankot AFS Commander Sacked: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvSkXrIHkTE

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GD, BOBBY & PAWAN: Here’s some more data on this issue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn5XtQbFzg4

To me, it makes no sense to spend 2.5 times more in learning to licence-manufacture an aircraft that is already being mass-produced elsewhere. It is helluva lot more expensive way of creating new jobs in India & is therefore nonsensical, just as is the case with licence-building C-295s in India when the latest Antonov An-132D is available & shares a common airframe with the IAF’s existing An-32REs. NAL, which has done some tinkering with glass cockpits for the ‘SARAS’ project, could easily have teamed up with HAL to develop a new-generation glass cockpit for the An-32REs & used the same on the An-132Ds as well. These An-132Ds could also have served as feeder commuter turboprops to serve Tier-3 cities as well as the ALGs in the North East for commercial air transportation. It therefore looks as if there’s no coherent aerospace industrial development roadmap anywhere within India when it comes to aircraft production. As for military platforms, the IAF’s topmost priority is the Rafale F-3R MMRCAs, followed by L-MRCAs that will serve more as tactical interdiction aircraft along with the upgraded Jaguar IS/DARIN-3. Here again, fatal errors have been made. For instance, if the upgraded Jaguar IS have EL/L-8222 internally-mounted ASPJ & EL/M-2052 AESA-MMR, then why was there a need to float global RFPs for the same type of hardware for the Tejas Mk.1A? Couldn’t standardisation of sub-systems be made the over-arching priority? Now the French are not only asking for the F414 to be junked for the Tejas Mk.2 in favour of the M88 turbofan, but SAFRAN, which has already selected the M88 as the ideal turbofan for the now Anglo-French Neuron UCAV, is also suggesting that the M88 be selected for the Ghaatak UCAV being co-developed by DRDO & HAL. Now, if all this were to be accepted by the GoI, then what’s the use of acquiring 40 Tejas Mk.1s & 83 Tejas Mk.1As powered by GE’s F404IN20 turbofans? On top of all this, F414 turbofans are already arriving in India for the Tejas MK.2, while the absence of a LIFT like the tandem-seat version of Tejas MK.1 continues to result in increasing numbers of Su-30MKIs being lost to human error-related crashes. Consequently, the service-induction of a new type of single-engined MRCA will only complicate matters manifold, both operationally & financially. All this would not have happened had the GoI back in 2007 had acquired the 40 Rafales that were offered on a sole-source basis, followed by re-engining the MiG-27Ms & MiG-23BNs with AL-31F turbofans, while desisting from upgrading the Mirage 2000s & MiG-29s—neither of which were licence-built in India. This is how 1 fatal judgmental mistake produces several more cascading mistakes that are prohibitively expensive for the country.

To PRAV: Had already answered your query on SSNs in the previous thread itself. As for single-engined carrier-based MRCAs, they’re suitable for the US Navy as well as the Royal Navy, but not for the IN since the IN’s carrier-based MRCAs don’t have the kind of support from aerial refuelling or AEW & CS platforms & will therefore have to operate in far more hostile environments & that’s why twin-engined capability contributes to greater survivability inside hostile airspace.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LACHIT: Enterprising Indians along India-Bangladesh Border in Assam:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGJhkRgcslc

Those Mahabharata-era Mongoloids at around 640 BC came to be known as the Hunas, who were the most barbaric invaders of India & they used to live in areas stretching from Mongolia till present-day Kazakhstan. Those Hunas who went westwards were known as the Black Hunas & were led by Attilla the Hun. Those who came down south & east were called the Black Hunas & they first went to Central Asia & used that place as a springboard to invade northwest India.

To KAUSTAV: The Pralay will be something akin to this:

http://www.mbda-systems.com/innovation/concept-visions/vigilus-2012/

It will be optimised for attacking TELARs armed with BMs & cruise missiles. The days of BMs being used for rocket artillery strikes are disappearing because, compared to standoff PGMs & certain NLOS-BSMs with pinpoint accuracy, the BMs & even certain long-range LACMs don't offer pinpoint targetting precision. Hence, increased emphasis in future will be on loitering PGMs with different categories of endurance-levels. I have seen the Pralay's AUTOCAD conceptual design drawings (they BTW are of 2012 vintage) & hence do not have to rely on perception-based/assumption-based takes, unlike others.

To SCRUTATOR: LOAL is the least favoured option for any guided weapon since the EW capabilities of an adversary can easily disrupt the LOAL data-links. Hence, the closed-cycle LOBL option is the favoured one for ATGMs & even SRAAMs in maby cases

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Yes what you said is correct.

Russia warns US against targeting Syrian forces

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdLVuzQDSOQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-L1bb1HcmEg

U.S. Warplane Shoots Down Iranian Drone In Syria

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wy-Hdl8O_ME

In Syrian Conflict US & its allies failed miserably after Russia enter the war. Now Sunni groups feel they are humiliated by Shia groups. Saudi's Yemen war is going nowhere. Desperate Saudi want to do some things. First Scapegoat is Qatar. They want Qatar to cut ties with Iran. But bullish Qatar playing the cards very clearly. Qatar tries to get the food supplies from many countries and overcome the blockade. Now KSA+UAE+Bh+Egy don’t know how to move to next level.

Meanwhile Qatar dragged Turkey in this conflict and turkey's military is in Qatar. But Poor fellow Turkey's Sultan thought that he can play Big brother role. But Saudi group is angry on this move and going to squeeze Turkey in near future.

1. Meanwhile US is preparing ground work in Syria to start next war with Syria/Iran.

2. First US is arming Syrian Kurds where Turkey is alarmed.

3. Now the question is Kurds are which side of the war. Are they ready to join US/KSA allies against Iran?

4. May be Kurds is given guarantee that Independent Kurdistan for joining.

5. Recent bombing in Iran by ISIS and Iran's recent Missile attack against ISIS in Syria.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/18/middleeast/iran-launches-missiles-into-syria/index.html

6. Now waging war against Iran you need a platform. Iraq & Syrian land is most suitable.

7. Now Iraq PM who is a Shia needs to support this conflict. Otherwise he will be thrown to dustbin.

8. Russia already in game will extend the war from Syria to Iran.

Now the Million dollar Question is What Pakistan going to do. Already KSA/UAE is angry against Paki in Yemen conflict. Now in Qatar Conflict also they played neutral. Next Paki has no choice should take sides with KSA team.

Game is becoming more deadly.

Thanks
S. Senthil Kumar

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Another Great Move.

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1118211/saudi-arabia

https://www.dawn.com/news/1340875/saudi-king-upends-royal-succession-appoints-son-as-crown-prince

No 3 moved to No 2 in Saudi.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Wo'nt inducting the F-16 have the following negative effects?

1. Give the US a lever to pressure us to slow strategic programs like the Agni-5 and its MIRVed variants.

2. Upset our relation with Russia and push Russia fully into the China-Pak axis: with this, we will also lose the assistance in building SLBVMs/SSBNs that we have from Russia.

3. Push us as a subsidiary partner into the US alliance: this will reduce us to a South Korea like status, with any response to enemy (read, Pak) provocations requiring US permission.

If an extra L-MRCA has to be inducted, the Gripen is better than the F-16; something like more MiG-29UPG's would be an even better choice.

Satyaki

buddha said...

Why govt of India and IAF does not realise the potential and importance of LIFT of tejas Mk1 even with DRDO developed engine that has not met the power for fighter but can serve well for trainer....
Again there seems little ray of hope of super sukhoi upgrade ....No light can be seen on that front.
Again if Jaguar fighter was being produced in India under license...Can the more number be added but after
2010 production line closed.
..
Again after watching the loitering arsenal UAV ...It seems that it will find difficult to penetrate highly air Defence zone...And expose to fire from both fighter and and Sam.
Will this type of loitering uav can accommodate long range missile ..

Anonymous said...

The 2 pieces on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s RMA shows Iran is very serious about protecting its assets against possible invasion or the possibility of Israel ever launching a preventative strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Although that risk is much reduced after the nuclear agreement with US but Trumps actions seem to hang that agreement in uncertainty.

This article, http://www.wsj.com/articles/spy-vs-spy-inside-the-fraying-u-s-israel-ties-1445562074, of 2015 shows that Israel apparently may have already done a dry run to work out the possibility.

1. Considering that neither Bashar al Assad nor Saddam Hussein retaliated when Israel destroyed their nuclear reactors from the air in 2007 and 1981, respectively; is this the thought behind the more than sufficient air-defence network of Iran?

2. Operation Desert Storm showed that the entire air-defence shield of Iraq was eliminated by US within 48 hours. It seems the standard operating procedure of US air power, where US deploys a overwhelming blanket of force to achieve complete control over the airspace. How long do you think Irans RMA could survive against such an action, if at all such a situation seem plausible to Pentagon (at least for the purpose of war games :) )?

Kane

Bobby said...

to prasun

if su30 availability rate is 60 % , same for mig 29/k , then how come paki jf17 not having problems ??

they must be having problems,what are jf 17 availability rates?? same thing for chinese jets??

how chinese went ahead with j20 j31 and amca is nowhere to be seen. why it took too long to fire bvr missile from lca refuelling probe.

why there is no arrester hook installed on naval lca till now?? how much more testing needed for naval lca,lch ??

Srinivasa Nanduri said...


Hi Prasun,

Thanks for the worderful read on Iranian Air defences.

I was really disturbed to read your comments basically confirming that we will get F16. I do not see the logic. Cant Govt. give time fro LCA MK2 to materialise. And if not why dont we go for Gripen E rather.

And Tejas MK1A, cant it be used for shore based strike team like JF17s are envisioned by Paksitan. That way apart from the 83, there can be additional orders from Navy too. And why is HAL not actvitely pursuing LIFT concept of Tejas Mk1? With all these the order books can swell to close to 200. Also the point that HAL is going for another round of fruitless tendering for already available solutions is really disheartening.

I thought MOD is improving itself by learning from its past mistakes but seems they are not looking at cost and incurring huge burden on common people by wasing money.

And is the IL214 project officially dead now. Is there no chance to develop it. Why are we going for C295 for just 54 aircrafts? Somewhere in some defence forum i read IAF is looking for 60 odd C295w procurements and vying for it, but is only stopped by budgetary constraints.

Also, how true is the story that Insas MK1c, 7.62x51 AR, has failed the tests and now IA will go for foreign made ARs.

Thanks and regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

buddha said...

MBDA - CVS302 Hoplite Land/Naval-Launched Precision UAV Missile System Combat Simulation [480p]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIAtSkRgYLM
Firepower:Future Artillery Strike|Documentary 2016(HD)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moh2guurKWQ

AMIT BISWAS said...

Pathankot AFS Commander Sacked: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvSkXrIHkTE

Nothing will change on ground.....sarkari naukri hai....mahine jaate hain ...paissa aa jaata hai...oopar se pay comission hike....ye allowance chahiye oo allowance chaihiye.......

Believe me these air force officers in reality are more interested about managing non core functions like afwaa and making money/ cut out of contracts and non public funds, daily dose of free canteen whisky/alcohol parties...

I remember a incident of AOC mrigendra singh from chabua air base few years ago that you exposed..that itself exposes theair force officers mentality.and why this pathankot AOC only to be sacked...even the westren command AOC-in-C and Chief of Air staff at that time mr arup raha is guilty i believe

BTW garud commandos it seems is just a flashy s called special forces with no abilities and air force is issuing RFIs to equip them with all fancy gadgets...and when time comes to act....alas garuds says we arent trained for this just like MARCOS in 2008

AVIRAL SINGH said...

According to news by NDTV & ZEE News Army has turned down new assault rifle developed by OFB...Will they now replace indian made INSAS with imported one?? Opposite of What government intends to do?


Ram Bharadwaj said...

NDTV claims that the tests ofb assault rifles have failed?

Is it true? They claim Excalibur failed second year and the 7.62 mm rifles also failed

Does it mean the ghatak also failed?

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear prasunji,
1)https://youtu.be/d_F2V16-w9g

What exactly happened to the USS Fitzgerald? Is it not fishy? A cutting edge warship like this to be damaged like this?

2) How many f16 will we order?

3) Will this for the US a lever to pressurise us on other staregic programmes?

Thanks

AMIT BISWAS said...


To prasun sir

https://youtu.be/LlfXfXZKY4g


Any idea about this project sir...and moreover can you give a gist of ongoing programmes going on worldwide for directed energy/kinetic energy/laser based weapon

AMIT BISWAS said...

Guys regarding the indigenous rifle from RAFI trailing link is the best available info I guess...prasun sir may add something to it

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/indigenously-built-assault-rifle-set-for-mhow-test/articleshow/59227184.cms

It seems rifle is acceptable to army provided only glitch of continuous firing of 2400 rounds before stoppage/jamming due to heat...and also accuracy of the gun it seems is too good,.....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAM BHARADWAJ & AVIRAL SINGH: LooooooooLLLLLLZZZZZZZ! Here’s that malicious report:

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/for-second-year-in-a-row-assault-rifles-made-in-india-rejected-by-army-1715267

One one hand the presstitute from NDTV claims this: NDTV has learnt that the indigenous assault rifle manufactured by the government's Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) failed basic tests last week. It had many faults, according to Army sources, including excessive recoil and "excessive flash and sound signature", which makes the gun indiscreet in combat. Sources said a "complete redesigning of the magazine" is needed to make loading the rifle easier. Safety mechanisms were also problematic with the rifle which had an "excessive number of faults and stoppages [during trials] to the extent of more than 20 times the maximum permissible standards."

Then in the report’s latter half appears another claim contradicting the first claim is made: Tomorrow, key stakeholders from the Army, Air Force, Navy and various branches of the Defence Ministry meet to spell out the precise specifications of the assault rifles that the forces need. For the moment, the armed forces have not even decided on the exact specifications that they require.

Now, here are the commonsensical facts that have escaped the NDTV presstitute’s attention:

1) Since the new-gen Ghaatak 7.62 x 51 SLR will be used by the 3 armed services as well as several of the CAPFs, finalisation of a common, standardised performance specification is reqd. If these specs are not finalised as yet, then how can the ARDE & OFB design/develop/produce the definitive Ghaatak SLR? On their own whims & fancies? Totally impossible.

2) Since the definitive Ghaatak SLR isn’t developed as well (since the specs themselves haven’t been finalised as yet), how the hell can it be subjected to any firing trials by any prospective end-user?

3) Since the definitibe Ghaatak SLR isn’t yet available for firing-trials, then who exactly carried out these so-called ‘basic tests’? Can such tests even qualify as user-trials?

Thus, we can now infer that this so-called story is a total non-story, i.e. a fabricated piece of fiction that defies every micron of common-sense. The OFB & DRDO will therefore be well-advised to sue NDTV & this presstitute for malicious defamation, while the GoI should initiate similar legal proceedings on the charge of defaming the institutions of the armed forces. Unless such legal proceedings are undertaken, these presstitutes will continue committing such dastardly acts in the name of press freedom. A sterling example not needs to be set with extreme prejudice so that never again do these presstitutes dare distort the facts.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BOBBY: Who says the JF-17 is not beset with any problems? Just because no data is forthcoming from either CAC Chengdu or PAC Kamra doers not mean everything is magnificent. It doesn;t take rocket science to infer that operational flight conversion to the JF-17 is an extremely tedious process due to unavailability of the JF-17B tandem-seater. If the transition to the JF-17 was effortless, then the JF-17B wouldn't be developed at all. Furthermore, the first JF-17s that were service-inducted have already undergone & are undergoing TBOs, meaning the RD-93 engines are maintenance-heavy & they don't have any FADEC. If the JF-17s were indeed popular with the PAF, then the PAF would not have been craving for additional F-16 Block 52s.

The PAF has to date overhauled three JF-17s that had entered service in 2007. Since this tantamounts to a mid-life refurbishment/overhaul, and assuming that the JF-17 has been logging in an average of 25 flight-hours per month, this translates into an airframe half-life of 9 years or 108 months or 2,700 flight-hours. Consequently, the total-technical service life (TTSL) of the airframe is 18 years, or 216 months or 5,400 flight-hours. However, the JF-17’s Klimov RD-93 turbofan has a half-life (TBO) of 700 hours, or TTSL of only 1,400 hours of operation. This in turn means that four RD-93s will be required to power each JF-17 throughout its service-life. And to date, only 200 RD-93s have been ordered by AVIC/CATIC from the Moscow-based Chernyshev Machine-Building Plant subsidiary of United Engines Corp (UEC), with an option to procure 300 more. Thus, if this option is exercised, it will give enough RD-93s for powering no more than 110 JF-17s. To date, the PAF has received 50 JF-17 Block-1s and 33 Block-2s.

Su-30MKI serviceability rate in IAF service now exceeds 72%, rest assured. And by this October the figure will reach 80%. Only the availability of MiG-29s & Mirage 2000s are low since both fleets are undergoing mkid-life upgrades.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: C’mon, don’t get so depressed. Instead, dissect the facts with a clear/cool head. For starters, the IAF is in desperate need of 10 MRCA squadrons made up of single-engined MRCAs capable of both tactical interdiction & defensive counter-air missions. This leaves out the F/A-18 Super Hornet & leaves only the F-16 & JAS-39 in the fray. Between these two, the JAS-39 is a lightweight platform whose NG version on offer isn’t a mature product as yet. The F-16 Block-70 on the the hand is not only available immediately as a mature/proven platform, but is also available at far cheaper rates since Lockheed Martin has already amortised the costs of all F-16 final-assembly/platform integration facilities that were set up in Fort Worth, as well as in Belgium, Holland, Greece, Turkey, South Korea & Japan. Hence, all required industrial hardware reqd for setting up a final-assembly/platform integration facility in India are available dirt-cheap & immediately as well. Also, such a facility can easily churn out 30 F-16s per annum if the work in India involves only licenced-assembly from CKD kits supplied by Lockheed Martin, with only the wirinhg harnesses being built in India. The TASL facility will thus resemble the F-16 final-assembly/platform integration facility of Turkey’s TAS, i.e. this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKFQIcVmd_s

Next comes the future growth version of the F-16 Block 70, i.e. the F-16AT/Falcon 21, which features trapezoidal wings & was designed way back in 1990 by Lockheed Martin. In addition, both Pratt & Whitney & GE Aero Engines had in the mid-1980s already developed TVC nozzles for supermanoeuvrability. So all F-16 B lock-70 airframes can easily be upgraded to F-16AT/Falcon 21 standard with ease by 2040. Here i8s all the data on the F-16AT/Falcon 21:

http://www.f-16.net/forum/download/file.php?id=14377&sid=ca5f1c597dc347b6b1fe1a428a41f990

http://www.hitechweb.genezis.eu/fightersAP07.files/lockheed_falcon_21_big.jpg

Here’s the data on SABR AESA-MMR & AAS-42 Tiger Eye IRST sensor for the F-16 Block-70:

http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/ANAPG80AESARadar/Documents/AESA.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOwKKV-i-bg

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed/data/mfc/pc/irst/mfc-irst-pc.pdf

F-16 Integrated Sensor Suite: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYdY3YFM8zo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ne_kAGC_d0
Sniper ATD pod: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yi9d8bstWsE

As the years go by, spinoffs from the F-35 programme will also become available for use by the F-16 Block-70, such as:

F-35 EOTS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2q65qOl1tM

F-35 HMDS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0btzIvlScI

So, all in all, the F-16 Block-70 followed by the F-16AT/Falcon 21 with all the above-mentioned add-ons make it the best & immediately available option for the IAF at far cheaper price-levels than anyone else can only dream of matching.

The downside to all this is that this will leave the IAF with barely enough financial resources left for continuing to procure Rafales in successive tranches, leaving it with a Rafale fleet of 36 (already ordered) & 80 that remain to be ordered. No extra funding will be available for either the LCA Mk.2 or the Tejas Mk.1A or the FGFA. Whatever extra money is left will be gobbled up by the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3’s re-engining with Honeywell F125 turbofans, & the Super Su-30MKI upgrade programme. So, if you want to gain some, then you will be reqd to lose some as well. That’s the cold-blooded tradeoff that now awaits the IAF. If this tradeoff isn't enacted, then one can also permanently bid goodbye to other desires like additional aerial refuelling tankers, additional AEW & CS platforms & additional turboprop tactical transports.

anupam said...

Prasun Its only you who take efforts to explain the complete scenario. If India proceed with the deal then
1. How many fighters India have to agree on.
2. Does any future sanction will have any impact on production.
3. How does it impact pakistan.
4. Whats will be the impact on kaveri engine and lift platform .
5. How will russia interpret this deal.

Thanks

Bobby said...

to prasun

how far do you see pak fa from induction with limited capability as intercepter in threat of j20 and j31 ?? say 2020

and why isn't f35 on offer with limited number ,do you think modi will ask for it when he meets trump for both navy and air.

ASD said...

Dear Prasun,

W.R.T. your response to SRINIVASA NANDURI, I want to add that the diversity of IAF aircraft will be further increased. That is another disadvantage. Infrastructure spending will grow further. Am I right?

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
this assessment of the F-16 / Gripen NG issue to (SN) is the most clear-headed assessment on the Single engined MRCA quandary for IAF, that I have ever read till date amidst all the confusing hoopla for the last 3 years. The fact that the DM is in Russia at the same time that Modi is in US gives the impression that this is to make sure that the Trump administration does not take India for a ride on the negotiations that may happen in Washington. Trump is a hard bargainer and Modi wants to make sure that he is not left with the only alternative there on the MRCA.

That is has been timed with the leak of the F-35 mass orders received by Lockheed Martin this week by them is sent out by LM to stop Trump in putting road-block to this deal with India.

Real-politik at its best as Modi does not have too many cards in hand with Trump this time!

Kane

Anonymous said...

Does it mean that we also get the source codes if we go ahead with the F-16's?
What happens if the other side starts getting the J20s/J31s/Jxxx?

F-16 I agree is an amazing machine. The blocks 40 on-wards the emphasis has been placed on its strike capabilities. USAF is expected to use it in this capacity for another 20-40yrs, according to media. Its also the reason why our neighbours wants more of the Block 50/52. What role would you expect it to play in IAF?

Rohit

Anonymous said...

Appreciate your crystal-clear way of putting things across @ F-16's and JF-17's.

Based on above, PAF is getting hollowed out with expenses on JF-17's. If and when they buy the JF-17B's, their troubles are set to increase.

Similarly, IAF needs to see that the 42 squadrons is myth that needs to be put to rest. They are attempting to scam money out of GoI. They need to told firmly to do more with less. This should be reinforced with sackings, if requried.

If let to me, I would scrap the L-MCRA, at present, as anyway the IAF is facing shortage of officers/pilots. Also, I would defer the FGFA for a decade, if and when it flies as well as Jaguar upgrade. The Tejas Mk2, when it is ready, can replace the Jaguars.

My focus on additional Rafale, Su-30MKI upgrade, additional aerial refuelling tankers - possibly on refurbished civilian aircraft , additional AEW & CS platforms - again in civilian refurbished aircraft. Regarding additional tactical transports, may be a mix of additional An-132 & H-130.

Regards,

Anand

Srinivasa Nanduri said...


Hi Prasun,

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

"No extra funding will be available for either the LCA Mk.2 or the Tejas Mk.1A or the FGFA".

As true as it sounds, it is really hard to see all the efforts on Tejas and LCA Mk2 are going for a toss. It is also sad that we probably will not acquire FGFA. Already negative reporting to justify any future withdrawal from FGFA has started. PMF/FGFA was a good tailor made product if done correctly. So is LCA Mk2, at least based on the reports available on net. IL214 is nowhere in the picture. Seems economic realities are biting MOD more then ever.

So i guess future course will be only acquiring 4th and 4++ gen aircrafts. Will at least SU30MKI Super 30 be a reality?

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Pierre Zorin said...

Two questions: Why is Egypt on a weapons buying spree? Who are they protecting themselves against? Is it a preparation for any future attacks on Israel or a team work to support the Saudis?
2) Instead of F-16 another new aircraft - what was wrong with getting MiG 35 which would have been compatible with the existing MRO of MiG 29?

Kapil said...

This F-16 procurement news if true than its very depressing. Seems like dalals and lobbyists have won. Why is IAF so desperate that it cant wait for Tejas mk2? And if cost were the deciding factor than why did India shortlisted expensive Eurofighter & Rafale in 2012? Or did the IAF later realised that foreign figter jets are needed in both single and twin engine ctegories?

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir

whats your view on this

https://www.facebook.com/OfficialDGISPR/videos/1735620963402017/

RAT said...

Hi Prasun,

Cold blooded trade off well if the earlier gov't would have wiser we would have been happier with French options both Mirages or Rafales. I would still recommend getting those Mirages from UAE have a lot of common with Rafales dump the Idea of Mig update baring 29s make Darin3 last major upgrade just turn LCAs into LIFTS then go for Rafales and Super Sukhoi having less number of platforms is better adding F16 will surely make this lot more worse I am not paying more taxes anyways LOL

Rajesh Mishra said...

Analysis of Sri PKS is superb again. MOD has to clear this mess in the IAF procurement of things.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANUPAM: VMT. 1) The reqmt is for replacing the firepower of 126 MiG-21Bisons, about 50 MiG-21Ms, 165 MiG-27Ms & 05 MiG-23BNs. Hence, the reqmt is for about 180 units. 2) If the US wanted to use sanctions as an intimidation.coersion tool, it could have done so decades ago by denying Indians H-1B visas or student visas. After having ordered substantial quantum of military hardware from the US, it doesn’t make sense for the US to coerce India neither does it encourage India to do something really stupid due to which sanctions can be imposed. Today the areas of India-US convergence far outnumber the areas of divergence. 3) Pakistan has been equated with Afghanistan & hence the Af-Pak equation will limit Pakistan’s regional ambitions. 4) The R & D work will continue, but it will be extremely low-key & time-consuming. 5) Russia won’t be impacted because Russia has large standing orders for many other types of military hardware due for supply to India.

To BOBBY: I can’t figure out why you insist on classifying the J-20/FC-31 as immediate threats. Both these platforms are years away from becoming mature & until they do even the PLAAF will not induct them into operational service. If the PLAAF is only now beginning to receive Russia-origin PESA-MMRs for its Su-35s & J-10Cs, one can well imagine how long it will take the PLAAF to introduce AESA-MMRs into service. Hence, don’t go by all the rumour-mongering among overseas Cginese internet fanboys. Those J-20s that have been delivered to the PLAAF are meant for use only by the trials & testing establishment of the PLAAF. As for PAK-FA, even the Ruskies are finding it difficult to induct it into service. Priority is being given to procuring Su-30SMs, Su-34s, MiG-35s & MiG-29K.

To ASD: The level of diversity will come down, since types different models of combat aircraft will be replaced by the F-16s, as I have explained above to Anupam.

To KANE: VMT. It’s not just the F-16s that is likely to find their way to India, but also 22 Guardian UAS platforms as well. Here’s the data:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-approves-sale-of-22-guardian-drones-to-india/articleshow/59274194.cms

http://www.ga-asi.com/Websites/gaasi/images/products/aircraft_systems/pdf/Guardian_032515.pdf

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ROHIT: Source-codes are reqd only for reprogramming the OS of the various avionics LRUs. What’s the use of such codes when the related test-benches & systems integration rigs hardware reqd for such reprogramming isn’t acquired? Now do you see how STUPID it makes one look when raising this needless issue of obtaining source-codes? That’s why the IAF never asked for such source-codes for the Su-30MKI. What is always supplied are OBJECT CODES, which can be fed in-country into the avionics processors. So let’s not discuss source-codes, because it really is a stupid thing to discuss. That’s why no IAF CAS with the sole exception of ACM Fali H Major has ever raised this issue & Major had raised it in the previous decade because he was a helicopter pilot & did not know much about fixed-wing combat aircraft.

To ANAND: VMT. The Jaguars can’t be replaced because they are now reqd for CAS & hence they’re armed with SFMs from Textron Systems. The IAF needs to raise the number of combat aircraft available per squadron from the current 17 to 24, as is the global norm. Furthermore, the IA’s Aviation Corps must be allowed to operate at least 200 LCHs as anti-armour/CAS platforms since a force of this size is equivalent to 2 armoured divisions! If this is done, then the IAF can do away with fixed-wing CAS platforms, not until then. The FGFA will have to be deferred because evfen the Russians are postponing the acquisition of their T-50 PAK-FAs in favour of Su-30SMs & Su-34s. LCA Mk.2’s prototypes will require 2,000 hours of flight-tests, i.e. the definitive design won’t emerge before 2025 at best & the IAF canl;t wait that long, especially because ADA has totally failed to deliver what it had promised. What HAL is now trying to do via the Tejas Mk.1A is akin to applying band-aid over a terribly flawed aircraft design.

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: The LCA Mk.1 was an R & D effort for, of & by scientists, with close to ZERO operational inputs. This was admitted in February 2013 itself by the then Director of ADA (available on YouTube) when he admitted at a presentation that he never even imagined that parameters like direct operating cost of maintenance man-hours per flying hour were considered critical factors for combat mission optimisation! Though I admire such honest on-the-record admissions, to me this admission was the final nail on the LCA Mk.1’s coffin & no wonder the IN then cut down its LCA (Navy) Mk.1 procurements to just 2 units. That was the time when the LCA MK.1 should have been scaled down from an L-MRCA into a LIFT in order both meet the IAF’s & IN’s LIFT reqmts, as well as for creating new jobs & building a firm, sustainable industrial eco-system for the LCA Mk.2. Since this did not happen due to faulty decision-making at the apex-level within the MoD, valuable time has gone by & today if immediate replacements are sought, then that also puts the IAF’s procurement budgets under severe pressure.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: 1) Because it is part of the KSA-led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT) that hates both the Muslim Brotherhood & its Iranian supporters. So, if the (IMAFT) is reqd to put boots on the ground in either Yemen or Iran (via the Sestan-Balochistan area straddling southwestern Pakistan and southeastern Iran then this invasion force will be led by an amphibious assault battle group of the Egyptian Navy, which, with the help of Saudi funding, took delivery of its two Mistral-class LHDs in June and September 2016 from French shipyard DCNS. In early August 2015, France and Russia reached an agreement for the non-delivery of the two LHDs originally ordered in June 2011. It was officially announced in September 2015 that Egypt would acquire the two LHDs originally intended for Russia. Operating from these two LHDs will be 46 Ka-52K Alligator attack helicopters that were ordered from JSC Russian Helicopters in December 2015. Deliveries are expected to be completed before the end of 2017. Rosonboronexport had also inked a US$2 billion sale of 50 MiG-29M/M2 to Egypt in 2016, with Russia confirming that the sale was to Egypt in April 2016. Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG (RAC-MiG) has confirmed that the first aircraft will be delivered to Egypt in 2017, with the remainder due by 2020. 2) MiG-35??? Despite showing all those Zhuk-AE AESA-MMRs in various Aero India expos, the Ruskies have opted for the Phazotron Zhuk-M2E MMR with slotted-array antenna for both the MiG-29K & MiG-35. Why are the Ruskies against the induction of their own homegrown AESA-MMRs? And despite the contract with the IAF, how many locally upgraded MiG-29UPGs have emerged inside India to date? 1? 2?

To KAPIL: How can anyone trust ADA to keep its promise on LCA MK.2 when ADA totally let everyone down with the Tejas Mk.1? Why even the IN has now declined the LCA (Navy) Mk.1? Obviously the IN & IAF both can’t be anti-LCA. They both must have concluded that ADA was decades away from offering an operationally optimum weapons platform. If anyone believes that only techies with no operational flying experience are good enough to develop airborne platforms, then the end-products will always be failures like the Tejas Mk.1/LCA (Navy) Mk.1, the Saras, the Rustom-1 UAV & the Tapas/Rustom-2 UAV. It’s time therefore to learn hard lessons from these man-made failures (instead of pandering to the whims/fancies of internet fanboys) so that they are not repeated again.

To RAT: India should have sold off the IAF’s Mirage 2000s in 2007 itself when France made the unsolicited offer to sell 40 Rafales to India. The inclusion of single-engined & twin-engined combat aircraft for the MMRCA competition in the previous decade was a political decision by the then UPA-1/2 govts. Every step of the way the then UPA govts made mistakes, both with regard to the MMRCA competition & the LCA Mk.1’s R & D effort. Had the IAF been instructed to assume the LCA Mk.1’s R & D project management back in 2005, matters would have been in far better shape. If the Bofors FH-77 can morph in to the Dhanush between 2011 & 2016, then what stopped the Class 209/Type 1500 SSK from being licence-built in the previous decade? Why was that design musteriously junked in favour of the Scorpene SSK? Why indulge in needless & cost-prohibitive duplication of effort? And who should be held accountable for such deliberate errors of judgment?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: LoLz! Visually, KJ looks mal-nourished & the lack of any emotion in his looks is strongly suggestive of him being tutored to read that confessional statement. The timing is also important, since it comes 2 days after an Iranian UAV was shot-down. Obviously that UAV was hot in-trail of some terrorist groups heading for Sestan-Baluchistan from Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. In addition, the content of this confession this time has strong anti-Shia content, obviously aimed at Iran because don’t forget that in Pakistan now, all-out efforts are being made by the ISPR to portray Iran in a negative manner & hence in almost any TV channel, soundbytes are being put out which allege that while only 2,000 Pakistani Sunnis have joined ISIS, Iran has recruited & deployed close to 20,000 Pakistani Shias in Iraq & Syria to fight against ISIS. But this is all a stage-show as exemplified by KJ’s narrative about his operation being a discreet non-Embassy one. Why? Because had he really been an operative, he would definitely have been in touch with the Indian Consulate that exists in Zahedan. So here’s yet another shining example of how faulty & non-factual the Pakistani fabrications are. There is now also the fear inside Pakistan that if India persists in filing mercy petitions on behalf of KJ with Pakistan’s Supreme Court, & if the case is re-tried in an open court, then the truth of KJ’s abduction will surface. Hence what is likely to happen is that the PA’s COAS will commute the death sentence to a life imprisonment term in the hope that sometime in future KH dies in prison most probably due to food poisoning, so that he will never live to reveal the truth of his abduction.

Here’s the videoclip of the 2nd tutored confession: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqSVraG4Jb0

And this is the clip of the downed Iranian UAV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywBVszKbdy8

https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/india-afghanistans-most-reliable-partner-pentagon-report-17096

https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/Enhancing-Security-and-Stability-in-Afghanistan-June-2017.pdf

To SENTHIL KUMAR: KSA ‘s Chess-Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTIWs4fdyKg

Who is Prince Mohammed bin Salman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDmnt6qoYik

India-Russia Ties: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhynCcn7yx0

Indian students’ 3D-printed satellite takes flight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cUJjEssapk

Prateek said...

Sir,
Lately, i have been seeing pics of indian para sf in almoat all operations in j&k, why are sf used for such regular ops this frequently Don't you think this is utter under utilisation of our sf, if not outright misuse.

Also, why does india maintain an around 10 battalion strong special frontier force, that too completely airborne trained.
What exactly is the charter of this force, is it involved in assassination s, snatch & grab kind of work for raw & ib, or is it just an airborne infantry force, and why do we need such a large force of tibetans?

AMIT BISWAS said...

Prasun sir is LISA and Iran war is inevitable in future considering the current geo political situation in middle East??
Can Pakistan and also India make a choice in that situation between KSA and Iran

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

The problems is that this U.S alliance will force us to

1. Go slow on Agni 5 testing and deployment, probably keep away from MIRVing.

2. Avoid nuclear testing, thus restricting ourselves to boosted fission warheads at most. This will put restrictions on the effectiveness of our deterrent. All this while North Korea is free to test and ultimately acquire thermonuclear capability, which China can transfer to Pak as well.

Better to avoid it. The MiG-29 would have been a better option. No such political baggage.

Ashwatthama

Anonymous said...

@Prateek

How can you tell that they are Para SF?? Remember, that the Ghatak platoon also carry Tavor rifles (and have access to special equipment).

-Scrutator

bhoutik said...

why guardian uas when there's heron tp

Anonymous said...

PKS you said," The PAF has to date overhauled three JF-17s that had entered service in 2007. Since this tantamounts to a mid-life refurbishment/overhaul, and assuming that the JF-17 has been logging in an average of 25 flight-hours per month"
this was in relation to serviceability issue. If a thunder is flying 25 hours a month and flying 300 hours a year, this means that the availability rate of thunder is good. This means PAF is flying thunders in high sortie rate.
Secondly, you said," If the JF-17s were indeed popular with the PAF, then the PAF would not have been craving for additional F-16 Block 52s."
My point is why are saying this! PAF wanted 100 + f16 even during 80's. and as you said that PAF needs to replace older platforms as they are in dire need.
I would like to point it is just like saying that why is IAF going for F16 or gripen when LCA MK1/MK1A and MK2 are able to do the job............
regards,
SJ

Anonymous said...

The downside to all this is that this will leave the IAF with barely enough financial resources left for continuing to procure Rafales in successive tranches, leaving it with a Rafale fleet of 36 (already ordered) & 80 that remain to be ordered. No extra funding will be available for either the LCA Mk.2 or the Tejas Mk.1A or the FGFA. Whatever extra money is left will be gobbled up by the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3’s re-engining with Honeywell F125 turbofans, & the Super Su-30MKI upgrade programme. So, if you want to gain some, then you will be reqd to lose some as well. That’s the cold-blooded tradeoff that now awaits the IAF. If this tradeoff isn't enacted, then one can also permanently bid goodbye to other desires like additional aerial refuelling tankers, additional AEW & CS platforms & additional turboprop tactical transports.

I totally agree with you! but one more downside will be the different number of platforms and subsystems will be used. F16 will have nothing in common with all existing fleet.... so IAF will have russian, french + british,american, indian, israeli etc......
regards,
SJ

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

I am sad by your following comment.

"What HAL is now trying to do via the Tejas Mk.1A is akin to applying band-aid over a terribly flawed aircraft design. "

I keep hearing for years Tejas is excellent aircraft. 4th Gen. That is better then FC!/JF17 and now you saying this, makes no sense?

Yadav

Gd said...

A good read,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/world/national-security/obama-putin-election-hacking/?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_no-name%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.42730a280cf9
GD

Bobby said...

china will built their own y 20 , heavy lift helicopters ,combat helicopters, J 20, J31
wide body airliners in their own country developed by them thats called nationality ,

now compare to this "Make in India" everything is imported.

these rich industrialist never invested single penny for defence R&D of national projects and now they want defence production share.why TATAs,ambanis never agreed to build LCA,LCH,arjun ?? or MKI??

what is the price difference between f16 and gripen, complete life cycle cost nothing is clear now by both vendors?? , if say in next 4-5 years pak fa is inducted then what is the prupose of this deal??

govt. has recently refused the deal of naval heli citing too costly with US.

UAE purchesed 25 f16 blk 60 for 3 billion compare that to 50 mig29 for 2 billion for egypt.


Srinivasa Nanduri said...


Hi Prasun,

Thanks again for such detailed explanation.

Hope MSM pick some of this gyaan and inform the public at large who feel Indian Govt. in general and IAF in particular are rejecting a great desi aircraft and buying phoren maal that is a legacy system. BBC report that Is USA dumping F16 to India was a case in point.

Hope IAF/MOD will cancel the MIG 29 Upgrade program and same some dollars.

And lastly your concept of standardizing squandron strenght to 24 would actually help IAF to follow international standards. Hope they do it sooner than later.

And moreover F16 Blk70 if acquired 200+ can be a game changer for IAF. If selected and built in India, can India in future be able to export these aircrafts to friendly nations?

I guess for political reasons IAF will be forced to take atleast some Tejas MK1A.
Money that could be used elsewhere, wasted again. Cant someone tell MOD instead to go for Tejas LIFT?

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

vikas gautam said...

Please verify this news.
http://halturnershow.com/index.php/news/world-news/655-breaking-russia-fires-s-300-out-over-mediterranean

ConcernedCitizen said...

I am curious earlier you had mentioned that the f414 which were ordered to power the Texas Mk2 are due to be delivered shortly and that is the reason why no other single engine fighter would be ordered. Now if we are going for f16s what would happen to those ordered engine do we resell it to any operator of f18s?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRATEEK: Why only the IA’s SF (Para) is visible to you? And why are the MARCOS & the SFF units are invisible to you? They are all operating there because SOF units by their very nature are always reqd to maintain a high operational tempo. SFF no longer comprises 10 Battalions, it is now only 3 Battalion-strong & very few Tibetans are in it. 99% of them are Indians & they come closest to the US Marine Force Recon-type units.

To AMIT BISWAS: Pakistan has already made a choice in favour of KSA. Why else do you think that Raheel Sharif fella is now couching in Riyadh? For laying eggs? India too will have to make its choice because the majority of Muslims in India are Sunnis, while the Shias are in a minority, although in far larger numbers than the Shias based in Pakistan. And as for conducting roof-top tests of the Ittam AESA-MMR, the DRDO will be well-advised to develop it first as a fire-control radar used for cueing laser-based point-defence systems used for anti-UAV operations. RAFAEL & RADA from Israel have already developed such systems by using the EL/M-2052 AESA-MMR of IAI. But since no such system was even mentioned by the LRDE chap giving the presentation at Aero India 2017, it means no one from the DRDO has even thought of such an application to date.

To ASHWATTHAMA: Such fears are unfounded & are relics of Copld War-era mindsets. The US has long stopped issuing statements that urged India to exercise restraint immediately after India had test-fired TBMs or IRBMs or ICBMs or SLBMs or LACMs. In fact, such statements were stopped in the previous decade itself. Hence, you need to update yourself with the latest developments.

To BHOUTIK: Because UAS like the Guardian have accumulated the maximum number of accident-free flight-hours when it comes to SATCOMS-guided operations over vast areas & that are also tens of thousands of km away from their GCS. So, if the IN too wants to operate in a similar manner by using the GSAT-7’s transponders for over-the-horizon/beyond line-of-sight flight operations, then the US-origin systems architecture offers the optimum solution.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SJ: You are ASSUMING that logging 300 flight-hours per annum translates into high operational availability. In reality, the great bulk of those flight-hours are devoted to operational conversion since the tandem-seater isn’t available. Operational conversion sorties are not the same as operational combat sorties. In addition, the JF-17 still has not been cleared for carrying all those PGMs that are shown on static display during air shows. Consequently, the operational usefulness or versatility of the JF-17 gets further reduced. In the pre-1998 era the PAF wanted only 111 F-16s, while post-1998 the reqmt for twin-engined MRCAs became all-the-more-important & hence work began in China’s SAC in 2003 to develop the FC-31 twin-engined MRCA whose principal customer will be the PAF. But even the FC-31 won’t be available for mass-production until 2025. That’s why the PAF wants more F-16s to replace its attrition losses & decommissionings involving its upgraded Mirage-3s/Mirage-5s. The JF-17 will therefore be limited to flying only defensive counter-air & CAS sorties & not tactical interdiction or deep-strike sorties. You therefore need to look at the holistic picture as opposed to what’s in front of you right now.

As for the F-16 Block-70, again you are assuming that no commonality will exist with existing IAF-operated combat aircraft. On the contrary, sub-systems like SAMTEL-supplied AMLCDs, SAGEM Sigma-95N RLG-INS & Litening LDPs can all be installed/integrated. All in all, therefore, 30% commonality can easily be achieved.

To BOBBY: You need to learn economics to make sense of price-levels. Rule-of-thumb states that the greater the numbers built, the lesser the unit-cost. Now just compare the production-run of the F-16 worldwide to date with the production-run for the JAS-39. This ain’t complex rocket science.

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: As Lockheed Martin ramps up production-levels of the F-35 JSF, the production of F-16s will decrease proportionally. Over the coming years, therefore, companies like TASL (in India), IAI (in Israel), TAI (in Turkey) & KAI (in South Korea) will all become the sole suppliers of spares & rotables for the global F-16 fleet, which will remain in service till 2040 at the very least. That’s quite a market for someone who is part of the F-16-related global supplier chain. In addition, as I had stated earlier, several of the F-35’s sub-systems will in future be offered for retrofit on the F-16s as well, like IRST/EOTS sensors.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To YADAV: That’s because you are refusing to make sense of all that’s been written, at least by me so far. Let me explain it further:

The LCA’s Full-Scale Engineering Development Programme Phase-I’s (FSED Phase-I) scope was to demonstrate the core technology competencies in areas such as airframe design and development, digital fly-by-wire flight control system and the navigation-and-attack system, so that a decision could be taken to build operational prototypes at a later stage. Under FSED Phase-1, two ‘technology demonstrator’ aircraft were built. FSED Phase-I was completed on March 31, 2004. However, prior to this, in 2001 the 1st critical mistake was made (due to lack of ADA’s project management expertise), which was this: while Phase-I was in progress, the MoD on November 20, 2001 decided to concurrently go ahead with the building of operational prototypes, i.e.prematurely commence FSED Phase-2 under which 5 IAF-specific prototypes, including a tandem-seat operational conversion trainer, and two naval prototypes (a single-seater and a tandem-seater) were to be built. What should have been done, instead, was to fully complete FSED Phase-1 by 2006, following which the IAF should have been instructed to revise its ASQR to include sub-systems like AESA-MMR, MAWS sensors & internal ASPJ. Had this been done in a sequential manner, then it would have led to a slightly larger airframe & with greater wing-area thanks to wider trailing-edge sections—all by 2009 under FSED Phase-2.

Instead, design and performance parameters of ‘Tejas Mk1’ LCA’s operational version were finalised in 2004, despite the LCA Mk.1’s airframe design having commenced in 2002 itself. In other words, roll-outs of PV-series aircraft under FSED Phase-2 was way too premature & illogical/nonsensical. Consequently, the governing body of ADA in its 41st meeting held on November 22, 2007 made a detailed review of the R & D status & found several shortcomings that should have been overcome at the FSED Phase-1 itself, i.e. in the two TD-series aircraft. So, one mistake led to another, resulting in ADA recommending the extension of FSED Phase-2’s likely date of completion till December 31, 2012.

A CEMILAC report of March 2009 vintage had admitted that MOST of the performance parameters of the PV-series aircraft were deviating from the reqmts. Hence a piecemeal (& not integrated) active performance improvement programme was taken up by ADA with CEMILAC’s help to explore the various design improvements in order to meet the ASQRs. The following are some of the important improvements undertaken, but they came too late:

Cont’d below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Air brakes in Tejas Mk.1 provided at the rear spinal part of the fuselage to decelerate aircraft at higher speeds. Due to this rear location in addition to the deceleration it gives an uncommanded pitch-up and directional stability reduction. Various improvement methods like perforated airbrake, updation of aero data set and fine-tuning of control law gains were tried. Still the problem was not rectified completely. A study was then taken up to utilize the main landing gear follow-up door as an airbrake. Due to its location close to the centre of gravity it does not give any pitch-up moment. Extensive wind tunnel testing was carried out & the results were encouraging.

One of the major outcomes of sea level trial of Tejas was that the drag of the aircraft was high such that the aircraft could not reach the supersonic Mach number at sea level. The components contributing for the maximum drag rise were identified and improvement methods were to be worked out.

Nose cone extension using a Plug: The major component of drag at higher speed is the wave drag. This can be minimized by following the Whitcomb’s Area rule for the aerodynamic configuration design. Between station X = 5000mm & 6000mm there is a sudden increase in area. By smoothing this sudden rise, the wave drag can be minimized. A possible solution proposed is the extension of nose cone by introducing a Plug. The detailed analysis of this design and its implementation plan was to be worked out.

Pylon reshaping: Another area for improvement is identified as the pylon reshaping. The leading-edge of all the pylons are blunt and it can be reshaped aerodynamically for the drag reduction. This was done successfully.

Trailing Edge Extension (TEC): It is seen that there is a sudden variation in cross sectional area at the rear end of the fuselage also. This can be minimized by the modification in the trailing edge using TEC. This never done.

Leading Edge Controller (LEVCON) is a secondary control surface located at the leading edge of the wing and the fuselage. The LEVCON is initially planned in LCA Navy for the low landing speed capability and other cruise performance. An important requirement of a L-MRCA is the Sustained Turn Rate (STR). The Tejas is not meeting the STR requirement of ASQR. The STR is a strong function of the aerodynamic efficiency. From the wind tunnel results it was found that the LEVCON produce higher L/D ratio. A detailed study to implement LEVCON in an L-MRCA and identification of other design constraints is under progress.

Converting metal components into composite: Weight reduction is an important activity to improve the performance. Use of high performance composite material can considerably reduce the weight of the components and preserving the structural integrity. The airframe of Tejas has already undergone one cycle of weight reduction prior to Prototype Vehicle series, which resulted in a weight saving around 350kg. It is felt that some of the components like slat doors, casing & mounting of LRUs and rear fuselage bulkheads and pylons can be converted into composite. This will give further weight reduction.

Co-cured co-bonded wing: LCA wing components have been manufactured separately and joined together using rivets, fastener and sealant. In the proposed co-cured co-bonded wing, the bottom skin, ribs and spars are cured together. This has advantage from reduced part count as well as weight saving. The weight saving is mainly due to the elimination of sealants, fasteners and associated components. Further, the wing is expected to have improved stiffness, be leak-proof and better lightning protection.

Of all these, the 2 most critical mods—nose-cone extension using a plug, & trailing edge extension (TEC)—were NEVER done for unknown reasons. Had these been done, the EL/L-8222 ASPJ today would have been internally-mounted, space would have been available for IRST sensor & MAWS fitments, & STR would have been optimal. This is why even the Tejas Mk.1A—which also is bereft of LEVCONs—remains a sub-optimal L-MRCA.

Anonymous said...


Dear Prasun,

Saudis say terror plot on Grand Mosque in Mecca foiled

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/saudis-say-terror-plot-on-grand-mosque-in-mecca-foiled/ar-BBD5WX8?li=AAgges1


@AMIT BISWAS,

Pakistani Are Our Slaves' says Saudi Defense Minister

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soUYbDo0UP8

In KSA Vs Iran fight is a ideological war. Pakistan doesn’t have any other options. Paki should join with KSA Sunni block. Already in Yemen war Sunni Block was very angry with Paki. UAE foreign Minister already commented pakis's neutral position in Yemen war.

Reason already this paki guys ate free lunch for many decades. Next after achieving the Atom bomb capability paki's self proclaimed that they are the guardian of Islamic Ummah by showing Islamic Bomb. During war paki has to take the final call. Otherwise Islamic Ummah will declare pakis are not Muslims. Neighbor is shia and distant relative is Sunni. Pakis will be squeezed by both sides.

Regarding Indian Position it is very clear. Indian will play neutral role. India is friend and business partner with KSA and Iran. There is no ideological attachment with both of these counties. See in Syrian case India told that it will follow UN Position. So India can escape.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

AMIT BISWAS said...

Prasun sir
http://idrw.org/indian-black-shark-torpedo-deal-for-navy-might-be-revived/

Black shark turns 180 degree opposite if we were to believe this indeed

Anonymous said...

Enjoyed your detailed analysis of LCA - Tejas.

I read an article at idrw.org that K-226T project is going ahead with registration of a JV. In earlier blogs, you had stated that it's a non-starter due to technical, commercial and sanctions-related issues. Any new developments on the same?

Regards,

Anand

RAT said...

Hi Prasun,

Question remains do we have the money for setting up assembly line for 2 different aircrafts like Rafale and F16 former costing nearly 18 billion at least and latter upto 12-15 billion? If I am correct MiG 27s have been mothballed in Russia itself let's put it simply Sukhoi for air dominance Rafale for special delivery Jaguars as CAS Mirages' for other missions and Mig29 for support to CAS and other missions make LCA as lifts now there is no money unless One platform is dumped or re-fueling tankers and AWACs takes major hit which means curbing operating range and then by F16 makes no logical sense. We cannot maintain 3 different platforms in a long run as well there is no money left for anything else. I would procure the Rafales upgrade to super Sukhois upgrade Jags to DARIN 3 dump the mig upgrade use the cash to purchase the Mirages from UAE Qatar fleet stays simple Super Sukhoi, Rafales, Jaguars, Mig 29, Mig 27 in small numbers only and Mirages this will bring the platform to fighting fit. I know you will still not agree but it always comes down to money rest is with the Government.

AMIT BISWAS said...

Prasun sir whats your view on creating a world class public private initiative aerospace university in india of course in collaboration with western countries..considering the faux pax of LCA/other aersopace sector projects being undertaken by our agencies...will this help anyway to improve the project management and development cycle shortening both in public and private sector???

Regarding IRAN/KSA situation pakistan iran relations will go hot gradually in coming days then ??? Regarding india you are hinting that KSA will prevail o ver IRAN for us...but wont it be a blunder for us to take sides..means iran has even cultural relations with india...can we opt KSA over them.....also why is iran hell bent on supporting the houtis/hezbolllahs is beyond my understanding though...your explanation is being sought hence sir

Regarding UAS from us ...any remote possibility of inducting armed drones from uncle sam for indian airforce

BTW sir who is supplying batteries for scorpene / kalvari class submarines----is it exide??

rad said...

hi prasun
wow!!,more on the aerodynamics of the LCA pse !! dil mange more!! you were talking of a de acceleration pitch up component when the air brakes are deployed. though it is a disadvantage , could it not be a advantage in a dog fight to increase the instantaneous pitch when rolled 90 deg?

who ever designed the pylons should be castrated or sent home as the basic aerodynamic knowledge has not prevailed while designing!! just look at the jf-17 pylons?

I do remember you saying that the levcons greatly enhanced the STR and instantaneous turn rate during test flights, are they at least being considered for the LCA mk-2?? Are the levcons integrated into the FBW system or manual mode ?

could the leading edge slats be made of composite so as to reduce the RCS of the LCA ? any move on that ? its one of the few metal components that stick out.

the leading edge on the main wing seems blunt compared to an older f-16 or even an jf -17 or gripen?

no body seems to be talking about reducing the RCS of the LCA ?

when you mention trailing edge extensions, do you mean the rear flaperons?

you mentioned that the lca-mk2 will fly around 2025, then another 2000 test flights means at least another 5 years !! >so what is the way out? we seems to be in a catch.
If the f-16 is ordered then it will be the end of the LCA as no funds available.If no fighter is ordered then the country i s vulnerable !! what is the solution,??

is it true that the russians are trying to milk us in the su-mki upgrade deal
????? which is sort of blackmail??

talking of the f-35 copy that china proposes to give Pak, how can they afford it?




flanker143 said...

Prasun sir.

So the procurment of F16s is indeed the final nail in the coffin for Tejas LMRCA.
If the f16s are ordered there will be no money left for tejas m2 and the R&D efforts will be ceased.

The question remains will F16s be ordered ?? Will tejas project be given a lifeline which it does not deserve ??
Will the NAMO led govt kill a big ticket indigenous project with all the Make In India BS it has been spewing lately.
And also bring in another make in india poster project.

I really wish the people responsible for this massive screwup be exposed and the magnitute of their screw up be shown publicly in a language that regular people can really understand and what damage they have caused to the nation and its taxpayers money.

They should be stripped all their honorary ranks, retirement benefits and be humiliated publicly

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: Loooooollllllzzzzzz! So the MoD has now grudgingly accepted that the laws opf physics as explained in this blog several times before by your’s truly can’t be manipulated or overturned after all! So now excuses are being sought to bypass the previous RM’s discredited & highly damaging blacklisting. Of course that buffoon/duffer is now the CM of Goa & is thereforte not answerable to Indian taxpayers about all the damage he had caused WRT Scorpene/Black Shark issue by mixing it with the AW-101 issue, about which too all material evidence of wrongdoing continues to elude the ED, CBI, etc etc etc. What a fucked-up bunch of decision-makers we have had so far! And for how much longer such retards will rule the roost is anyone’s guess!!!

To ANAND: We shall see when thus JV is registered. Until then, it’s best to reserve one’s judgement on this issue.

To RAT: Money is definitely available for setting up final-assembly/systems integration facilities for both rafale & F-16. But if one makes the mistake that India has been making since the 1960s about tryiong to indigenise an imported MRCA design’s avionics, accessories, airframe & parts of the turbofan, then it will become a cost-prohibitive exercise. Far better therefore to receive all the components in CKD manner (except those that will be sourced directly from Indian OEMs for enhancing sub-systems commonality between the various combat aircraft fleets of the IAF) that can be put together at the final-assembly/systems integration facilities. There will be plenty of time for TASL to do some serious domestic manufacturing of the new wing designs for the F-16AT/Falcon 21 sometime in 2040 when the B lock 70 F-16s are up for mid-life upgrades.

To CONCERNED CITIZEN: They can always be traded for commercial turbofans being used or being ordered by several India-registered airliners.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Since the LCA Mk.2’s guselage will be 1 metre longer, logically therefore the wing area will also have to be increased through the inclusion of LEVCONs. LEVCONs like all other control-suirfaces are FBW-controlled, not manually. Trailing edge section refers to the front end of the wing as it tapers off towards the wingtip. This is exactly what GE had suggested to ADA back in 1988 along with box-type air-intake design similar to what the JAS-39 has. But those rookie techies of ADA assumed that they were blessed with all-knowing wisdom & therefore they fucked-up the airframe design at the very outset! The IAF too is to be blamed, since it had finalized its ASQR way back in 1985. By 1998 itself the ASQR should have been revised, since the earlier ASQR had specified a closed-loop avionics architecture. But by 1998 the IAF had already specified an open-architecture avionics suite for the Su-30MKI, so this should have been specified for the LCA Mk.1 as well at that very time. Instead, the IAF’s revised ASQR was available in only 2004 & consequently, FSED Phase-1 was left incomplete & all pending developmental work got shoved into FSED Phase-2. End-Result: sub-systems development that should have been undertaken on the two TDs was undertaken by the PVs, which led to numerous iterations in airframe design—sheer wastage of time due to ill-planning. What the MoD should have done is to make the IAF in-charge of project management from FSED Phase-2 onwards. At least then the PV-series prototype designs would have matured to the desired operational parameters & no more tinkering would have been necessary on the LSP-series aircraft. But all this was not done & the deficiencies started cascading/multiplying. Consequently, the compromised design of Mk.1 was frozen in only December 2013 & that too only for IOC. So far, no money has been sanctioned for fabrication of any LCA Mk.2 prototype. It therefore remains a paper design. The IAF will therefore most probably terminate the project by procuring only 40 Tejas Mk.1s. Even the Tejas Mk.1A is only a prototype development project & no money has as yet been sanctioned for series-production since HAL too is facing daunting challenges. For instance, the EL/L-8222 ASPJ pod will no longer be belly-mounted. Instead, it will be an underwing installation. Similar, there’s no face for accommodating the apertures internally of even the bare minimum of 4 MAWS sensors.

All in all, this is an excellent case-study of how NOT TO go about developing an operational weapons platform, especially from a project management perspective.

Anonymous said...

PKS, what do you think? IAF will go for F16 or more rafales !! and where does LCA come in the future (after seeing your comment to RAD).... and if gone for f16 how long will it take to start manufacturing in india ..... and how will india engage with smaller companies which provide subsystems for 16's
regards,
SJ

Pankaj said...

@Prateek

Please read this ; Now even Garud Commandos are Going to Kashmir
for Gaining Battle Experience

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/iaf-inquiry-into-pathankot-attack-finds-serious-lapses/article19109874.ece


The report also faulted the Garud Commandos for their failure in handling the situation and said that they were ill-prepared for the task. As a result, it has now been decided to deploy them in counter-insurgency operations in Jammu and Kashmir to gain experience.

“The Garuds are a competent force but they need to battle-hardened. Based on the inquiry report, the government has decided to deploy them in J&K for battle inoculation,” defence sources said.

Girish said...

To Bobby @June 23, 2017 at 7:25 PM

That is because the Indian government policies prohibited private industry involvement in the defence sector, and instead kept backing the PSUs. One can hardly blame the private industry for the fallacies and short-sightedness of government policy.

The Indian private industry has proven that if left to themselves and driven by market forces, they are more than capable of taking on the world in their respective fields.

If you look at the most successful defence industries the world over, they are ALL privately owned. E.g in the USA, France, Germany, UK, Switzerland, Italy, and also the consortium of private companies in the EU.

The armed forces of these countries only define the specifications of what is needed (or desired), and it is left to the private industries to innovate and work out how they wish to meet those required specifications. And they have delivered SPECTACULARLY !!

The F-16 itself is a splendid example of their innovations (as are its contemporary 'Teen' series fighters - F-14, F-15, F/A-18, etc). If you look deeper into history, you will come across the A-10 Thunderbolt, the still unmatched SR-71 Blackbird, the legendary F-4 Phantom-II, the Sea Harrier and other Harrier variants, the SEPECAT Jaguar, the Dassault Mirage series, and many many others. The list is long.....)

I have given examples of aircraft, but the same can be said of land vehicles and equipment. The Challenger tank, the M1 Abrams, the Leopard, the LeClerc, the legendary Jeep (!), the Land Rover, and again it is a long list.

Ditto for other weapons and weapon systems.

It is only in India that we have a fallacious belief (at least amongst the political leadership) that somehow PSUs are more 'loyal' and 'patriotic' than private enterprises. I personally feel that one of the parameters of judging 'loyalty' and 'patriotism' should include delivering on commitments, to specifications, on schedule and on budget! On which parameter, the PSUs have failed, just as SPECTACULARLY as the private industries of the countries mentioned above have succeeded. (Minor successes not withstanding)

It is only now that the Indian government is slowly warming up to the idea of private industry involvement in the defence sector. But whether they would carefully nurture and support these industries until maturity remains to be seen.

Regards,
GS

Pierre Zorin said...

13 years from today I don't even think there will be any manned aircraft! Besides many of us may not be in a position to read this blog!! I guess the ADA guys must have thought building a combat aircraft was a child's play. it's a bit like buying a Victoria's secret woman's underwear for a man then cut the crotch off to accommodate the penis!!!

Zaphon said...

What are your thoughts on this:
https://swarajyamag.com/defence/why-the-f-16-deal-isnt-a-game-changer

While it is naive to suggest that every component of the F-16 would be made in India, isn't it equally wrong to assume contracts won't incorporate subcontractors? Nobody will surrender IPR but isn't it also the case that the F-16 offers a chance to break the HAL monopoly and learn advanced manufacturing techniques? Also, is the F-16 really at the end of its development cycle? Why? Can't new wings, TVC etc be experimented with?

Finally, given your comments on the Tejas, wouldn't it be better to take up the SAAB offer and use a modified version of the Gripen as the Mk.2 and abandon plans to design combat aircraft in India?

Rajesh Mishra said...

All along I was very much happy with the Tejas. Now I come to the understanding that only the scientists are happy with Tejas and no one else. Unfortunately now F-16 turns up to be the only option and solution.

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Can you please tell if below article is true?

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/chinas-secret-landgrab-no-not-the-south-china-sea-21296

And if so what are visible corrective measures Indian govt. is taking?

Also, why is mansarovar yatra stopped. Again conflicting reports tying something to do with chumbi valley. Really amazing how our news media confuses people.

And so with no tejas mk1a or LCA mk2, will there at least be a LIFT?

And how are they working on a face saving way out of this?

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Anonymous said...

Hello sir.

1) Sir what is the status of 2 additional Phalcons, have they been ordered yet?

2) Does our financial situation allows pursuing mega deals like MRSV, single engine fighter, 4 frigates, s400 and others in short term? Even if IAC2 and FGFA is on hold?

3) Roughly How many Mirages, jaguars and mig29 have been upgraded?

4) Is super sukhoi too stuck due to sanctions?

5) I was curious :
A naval multirole heli, can it perform ASW without modifications?
I mean i understand if they are used for transport, search and rescue.
But how do they do ASW?
Can dunking sonar and relevant systems be added and removed at will or something?
Please explain.

Thanks in advance.

- VSJ

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GIRISH: The civilian political nitwits (decision-makers) speci8alise in creating mysteries locked up in riddles inside enigmas! Just look at the ‘Tamaasha’ on strategic industrial partnerships. The common-sensical approach would have been to make the DPSUs publicly-listed, with the GoI owning only a Golden Share in each of them. Then, leave it to these DPSUs to strike industrial partnerships with any private-sector corporate entity of their liking, based on convergences in core industrial competencies. But such logical roadmaps will never emerge because the MoD’s Secretary for Defence Production & Supplies, who also happens to be a sitting Board-member in every DPSU’s Board of Directors, does not ewant to surrender bhis/her power/perks/privileges, while the Defence Minister (RM) is in any case quite heppy being an ignorant/out-classed/out-foxed buffoon because as per the RULES OF BUSINESS Book of the Govt of India, it is not the Defence Minister, but the Defence Secretary who is responsible for ensuring the defence of India!!! That is why every time during question-hour in Parkiament, ALL questions on national security matters are always answered in writing. No politician has the intellect to have an open, spontaneous debate on such issues. The only time such open debates are held is when one tries to hurl allegations on procurement-related corruption for political point-scoring/slandering, as was the case with the AW-101 VVIP helicopter procurement & we all saw that spectacle which proved that the then RM possessed way-below-average IQ-levels. That’s why I have stated time0n-again that if the DRDO-led projects failed or have been only technology demonstrators, it is not the DRDO’s or the armed forces’ fault, but the exclusive fault of India’s civilian decision-makers, who always shirk away from undertaking the structural & systemic institutional reforms that are reqd for the productive functionbing of the MoD & the DRDO.

To PIERRE ZORIN: The world’s major OEMs are already developing 6th-generation manned MRCAs. Sio all earlier talk of unmanned UCAVs being predominant by 2040 was pure speculation.

To SRINIVASA NASNDURI: Of course it is totally false. If it were true, then names of villages & tracts of districts wou;d have been revealed. Since no such names are mentioned, it means these are all figments of one’s sick imagination. Furthermore, post-1962, both countries have adhered to the policy of having demilitarised 20km-depth stretches of land on either side’s perception of the LAC. Therefore, neither party has permanent structures like bunkers inside such stretches & this is precisely why both sides resort to frequent long-range patrolling missions. Had permanent structures existed in such areas, then there would never be any need for such patrolling for surveillance purposes. Delusional folks couching in Lutyens’ Delhi are simply unaware of the objective ground realities & LAC surveillance protocols & hence such outpourings of mumbo-jumbo. Landslides have taken place in areas of TAR plateau opposite Sikkim & hence the highways leading to Ngari-Gunsa are un-motorable.

And these are for my weekend reading:

http://www.amazon.in/Indian-Spy-Story-Remarkable-Secret/dp/9386021587/ref=pd_sim_14_2?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=K6EJ6FQFW1YS7XESTN5C

http://www.amazon.in/Exile-Stunning-Inside-Story-Flight/dp/1408892537/ref=pd_sim_14_4?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=MQRJAQBZ5A51QRNH2FTT

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ZAPHON: Absolute baloney & malicious speculation.
Claim: This means that about 60 per cent of the F-16 technology remains unavailable to India unless its signs deals with each of the hundreds and possibly thousands of sub-component manufacturers, some of whom are based in countries like Turkey that are less than enthusiastic about India.
Reality: Lockheed Martin owns ALL IPRs for each & every component of the F-16. Sub-component manufacturers in the US or anywhere else in the world don’t. Hence, only the IPR owner is entitled to strike sub-contracts with various vendors in various countries. That nitwit who wrote that piece-of-shit is obviously clueless about how industrial partnerships.work-shares are worked out, be it for Su-30MKI or Rafale or even the F-16.

Claim: The F-16 engine, for example, belongs to another US company: General Electric…it hardly suits GE’s business interests to transfer such technology to India.
Reality: 2 OEMs, not one, supply turbofans for F-16s: GE & Pratt & Whitney. From August 15, 1947 till now, not a single engine manufactuirer has shared/transferred any design/production technology related to local production of any engine’s core-section. Nor will anyone do so in future. Hence, no one in India is even asking for this. Only components like compressor blades, afterburner assemblies & pipings are licenced for local production, be it for the M-88 or AL-31FP. So, one should stop daydreaming * nurturing false hopes.

Claim: In short, while the GE engine is an important component of the F-16’s combat effectiveness, the Link-16 is the real war winner, and neither are on offer to India—except for assembly purposes.
Reality: What an idiotic assumption. ODLs for Su-30MKI & Rafale have been co-developed b y Israel’s Tadiran & the DRDO’s DARE lab. Same practice will be followed for any other imported combat aircraft as well. ODLs always work in conjunction with IFF transponders & India has mandatorily followed the practice since early 1990s of using only DRDO-developed IFF transponders. Logically, therefore, the ODL too has to be home-grown. So, again no daydreaming about Link-16 & the like.

Claim: Yes, it is at the end of its life cycle but India, which isn’t as technologically advanced as the US, should be able to easily absorb whatever technology it gets from the deal.
Reality: The nitwit has obviously no idea of the existence of the F-16AT/Falcon-21 programme, or of LM’s mature product-lines like fly-by-light flight-control systems using fibre-optic wiring.

Claim: In the end, India gets a superb fighter and a few thousand jobs but nothing more—not a monopoly, not a market, not innovation, not cutting-edge war-winning technology and, certainly, not “strategic autonomy”.
Reality: Innovation will feature in the mid-life upgrade stage when the F-16AT/Falcon-21 becomes a reality. ‘Strategic Autonomy’ is only possible when any weapons platform is 100% indigenous from the raw materials stage onward. Only 2 countries—US & Russia—have attained it & none of them have have shared it with anyone else.

GoI doesn’t have deep pockets when the list of outstanding hardware reqmts keeps growing. Hence, the cheapest & fastest available option is the best & only option (that of the F-16) left on the table. Even the Gripen-NG won’t mature till late 2020 at best.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: The option of procuring Tejas Mk.1A’s tandem-seater for LIFT reqmts is always there. It only needs to be exercised. Furthermore, spinoffs from the LCA’s developmental effort are being applied on the Super Su-30MKI & Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 projects, apart from the Dhruv Mk.4 & LCH projects. GTRE needs to continue developing the Kaveri, not for airborne applications, but for marine gas-turbine reqmts, which are huge especially in the oil/gas exploration/exploitation sectors, followed by naval applications. Also, GTRE & HAL need to team-up for first developing turboshaft engines for helicopters & commuter turboprop s. Only after success in these areas will it be possible to develop turbofans. Both Japan & China have adopted such a roadmap & I can’t fathom why India should be the exception to this global norm. As our ancient scriptures always state, whenever tall claims & utopian promises are made, the landing is always a very hard one indeed.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SJ: Arey yaar, why are you still ASSUMING that it is an F-16 versus Rafale issue? The Rafale has already been selected as the MMRCA, period. Rafales will be the IAF’s sole deep-strike platforms, to be escorted by the Su-30MKIs during strategic bombing campaigns deep inside hostile territory. Following that is the L-MRCA reqmt to replace the MiG-21 Bisons, MiG-27Ms & MiG-23BNs for tactical interdiction/defensive counter-air operations. The Jaguar IS/DARIN-3s will be used for battlefield air interdiction (close air-support). So where then is there any reqmt for another L-MRCA like the LCA Mk.1 or LCA MK.2? The MiG-21 Bisons will be decommissioned by late 2012, the MiG-27Ms will follow in 2022 while the MiG-23BNs have already been decommissioned. Do you want the IAF to wait till 2025 without tactical interdictors/defensive counter-air platforms?

Also, the term ‘production line’ is a misnomer. Except the airframe, Lockheed Martin NEVER built the entire F-16 at Fort Worth. All avionics & accessories were supplied by sub-contractors, just like the turbofan suppliers (GE & Pratt & Whitney). What exists in Fort Worth today is the final-assembly/systems integration facility that in its heydays was 1 mile-long! It is portion of this facility capable of churning out 30 F-16 Block-70s per annum that will be established by TASL along with LM at dirt-cheap price-levels. Don’t be under the illusion that the F-16 will be subjected to large degree of local production since such activity is time-consuming—a luxury that the IAF can’t afford anymore. However, since the IAF’s F-16s will have a TTSL of 40 years, they all will have to undergo mid-life upgrades by 2035 (that is, if deliveries begin by early 2020). That gives TASL & LM enough time to finalise all elements of the mid-life upgrade package that will see the F-16 Block 70 being transformed into the F-16AT/Falcon-21 & it is here that Indian sub-contractors will see their industrial workshares going up as more locally-built hardware will find their way on-board the F-16AT/Falcon-21. If the IAF becomes the launch customer for this mid-life upgrade package, then other F-16C/D operators like the air forces of the UAE, Singapore & Taiwan will also be interested in adopting this package & this is where the TASL-LM industrial partnership will make profits. For the F-16 Block-70s that will be arriving first, there’s significant scope for customisation, such as installing avionics that are already on board existing IAF combat aircraft (like Sigma-95N RLG-INS that HAL is licence-assembling for Jaguar IS/DARIN-3, Su-30MKI, MiG-29UPG, Mirage-2000N & Rafale), plus OFB-supplied brake chutes, customised ground-handling equipment (from HAL & BEML) & some avionics testers from the private-sector. The IAF will also be specifying the Cockpit-NG cockpit avionics suite that will be supplied by HALBIT, the JV between HAL & ELBIT Systems. Gradually, starting from 2025, 70% of the airframe & 90% of wiring harnesses will be locally produced/supplied, along with rotables/consumables like lubricants, additives, tyres, cockpit canopy transparencies, a range of actuators. It remains to be seen if the IAF will specify the EL/M-2052 AESA-MMR for installation (since the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3s already have them) instead of Northrop Grumman’s SABR. The operational data-link (ODL), software-defined radios & IFF transponders will also be India-sourced/-supplied, just like what has been specified for the Rafale. So, no Link-16, as has been speculated by some ill-informed/delusional ‘punters’.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
I was intrigued by the Israel-Iran military relationship in early 80s.
1) Why did Israel help Iran? Now Israel and Iran are like mongoose and snake. Hizbullah attack Israel whenever it gets a chance. Israel tries to kill any Hizbullah leaders. Similarly some Iranian politicians said that Israel will be wipe off from the maps.
Now Israel is trying to attack Iran. What went wrong between Israel and Iran?

2) I have a feeling that Israel needs to fear more from Sunni force than Shia Iran. A militarily strong Sunni factions composed of Egypt, Saudi, Jordan (possibly of Pakistan and Turkey) is more dangerous than Iran.

3) The middle east politics is very confusing. One way, Qatar is suspected to be promoting/financing ISIS, but it have cordial relationship with Iran, which fights ISIS.

4) On the other hand, Saudi Arabia which finances the hard core Islamic fundamentalism as well as some faction of ISIS, but it objects Qatar. Who is wrong and who is right?

5) As you mentioned most of the terrorists strike against Western Countries as well as in India is by Sunni Muslims. But no one blames Saudi Arabia. Why?

6) Qatar was sidelined by Middle Eastern countries, and even Mr. Trump supported this idea. But no country including US is doing nothing against Pakistan which not only finances but also sends+trains terrorists to India and Afghanistan has been "rewarded" time to time. No sideline, nor any strong voice against Pakistan.

7) If US knows that Qatar is indeed supports ISIS, why does it have a base in Qatar?

Thanks,
Ravi

Zaphon said...

Mr. Sengupta, That is a comprehensive rebuttal.

What inspired that author - he is a Senior Fellow at IPCS - to write that with so many blatant errors and mistruths?

Is there a malevolent agenda?

The other thing is - is this F-16 deal likely? Nobody seems sure. Frankly I am confused.

Also, given that the Tejas is a failure, (possibly a good combat capable LIFT), should India give up on aircraft design or just learn from experience and not repeat the mistakes or by 2020 team up with SAAB or LM for a new aircraft?

Incidentally, I had a chat with some of the Tejas team, much of what you say, they admit. They want the chance to fix their mistakes though working with HAL.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

UAE Warns Qatar To Accept Demands Or Face 'Divorce'

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/uae-warns-qatar-to-accept-demands-or-face-divorce-1716352

Saudi Arabia in FURIOUS ultimatum to Qatar as Middle East tensions threaten to boil over

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/820914/Saudi-Arabia-Qatar-Egypt-Bahrain-UAE-ultimatum-Gulf-crisis

Qatar given 10 days to meet 13 sweeping demands by Saudi Arabia. Condition is getting bad to Worst.

One of the demand is closing Al Jazeera and kick out Turkey Army. As I predicted Turkey is going to get the maximum hit.

Prasun can you predict what will be the next set of actions by KSA team.

Thanks
S. Senthil Kumar

Gopu said...

I heard from some people in the US last year that LM was optimistic wrt selling F-16s in India, but it seems like matters have been moving a lot faster as compared to how matters progress in Indian standard time. Anyways this is undisputedly the right decision; sunk costs in the LCA programme cannot cloud the IAF's immediate needs.

However, the fact that the F-16 Block 60/70 was always the ideal "LCA" MRCA for the IAF is also undisputed. In hindsight, the MoD/IAF should have looked at the L-MRCA and M-MRCA roles in a complementary fashion. From an operations, industrial, and utility-to-cost standpoint, choosing two mature American platforms (F-18E/F and F-16E/F) would have been the best decision.

Indian industrial entities would benefit far more from picking up the two winding down production lines and imbibing the values/processes of the US military-industrial ecosystem. Acquisition costs of not only airframes but also weapons and spares/rotables would be lower due to greater economies of scale. Without elaborating ad nauseum, Safran has basically told GTRE that its offset money should essentially be reinvested in France to develop next-gen turbofans (and ultimately, the IP and turnkey production process remains in France). In the US, the OEMs have already developed these 'next-gen' technologies; it mostly is a engineering effort to update/modernize the older systems. Some of this "re-engineering" would have been able to involve Indian engineering and industrial firms.

Now that L-MRCA and M-MRCA have been decided, where exactly does this leave HAL and future Indian aerospace projects? Will the IAF simply continue to order from the international market? Will HAL and DRDO labs form the requisite international partnerships and tie-ups to develop the AMCA concept? Or instead, will HAL target low hanging fruit like indigenous helicopters and transport planes? Are there operational synergies with other forces that could become joint development efforts? Currently, it looks like no one is willing to own up to past mistakes and take the necessary corrective actions to prevent these mistakes from happening again and again.

Siddharth said...

Prasun da,

Everybody on this forum ranting about F-16 to IAF. But what about the weapon package come with the F-16 and what about its uninterrupted availability during war - hope American don't blackmail us or impose sanctions.

Rahul said...

Dear Sir

Is it now absolutely Certain that F 16 will be selected

Or does GRIPEN still have any chance

The negotiations have not yet started

What about CISMOA and BECA agreements ; when will we sign them

LALITH said...

Hi Prasun,

As someone from Andhra Pradesh most of us ( Telugu speaking people) had realised this long time ago & now even the RSS/BJP via their mouthpiece Swarjya magazine are stating it openly.

Their plan is to flood non Hindi speaking states with millions of Hindi speaking migrants from cow belt. This is cultural genocide. The number of people in Hindi speaking states is increasing due to failure of family planning measures & the no. of people is decreasing in South India.

I wonder how long India will stick as a union because of such antics.


https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/saving-hindi-from-the-hindi-wallahs-how-to-separate-sense-from-nonsense?platform=hootsuite


Thank You, Lalith

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

H-MRCA - Su-30MKI (Hal-Russia)
M-MRCA - Rafael (Reliance-France)
L-MRCA - F-16 (Tata-United States)

India leads a charmed existence..Lolz

The money might be tight but it certainly can give us the breathing space to develop our own aircraft, copters, ucavs,serpentines avionics etc.

What is the secret of our acceptability?
We do not rock the boat or as a balance!

bhoutik said...

you informed that - "on May 16 SAFRAN officials had an extended meeting with the DRDO in which SAFRAN clearly stated that if India wanted to learn how to produce military turbofans, then the starting point should be NOT the Kaveri, but the M88-2. SAFRAN has therefore proposed that as part of its Rafale-related direct industrial offsets provisions, it is willing to team up with GTRE to co-develop a derivative of the M88-2 for both the LCA Mk.2 & the AMCA or the FGFA"

*if GTRE co-develops a derivative of the M88-2, will it own the IP? and, would u take up that offer?

*"if India wanted to learn how to produce military turbofans, then the starting point should be NOT the Kaveri, but the M88-2" - what did they mean by that? could you please explain. were they using the words 'produce' and 'develop' interchangeably, or did they mean that GTRE is has come some ways development wise but is having problems with production engineering.

flanker143 said...

Prasun sir,

not so long ago you said (replied to somebody's query) that there wont be any other L-MRCA be it F16 or jas 39 in IAF apart from tejas simply because there are no funds for running 2 types of lmrca for doing the same job and that the R&D efforts related to the tejas mk2 are progressing well. I mean you seemed confident that Tejas programme will go on and any other Lmrca will not be procured.

but now you are sound pretty confident that tejas programme will be junked in favour of the f16 blk70

- just wanted to know that is the procurement of F16s confirmed ??

AMIT BISWAS said...

Prasun sir another event foretold by you copied here

http://idrw.org/a-government-military-rift-in-iran-over-pakistan-is-opportunity-for-india/

AMIT BISWAS said...

Prasun sir found this video on youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0acJ3xyhaJo

Suppose IAF gets F 16 block 70 will it get hands on such effective weapon systems like MALDS/JSOW/HARM....

Also what weapon package is best suited for F 16 for india....will LM allow indian/european weapon system to be integrated

and also will non signing of CISMOA and BECA bar IAF to procure any of the weapon/radar/ISR package

Anup said...

Sir,
F-16 for IAF it's a done deal? U are always against F-16 & Grippen.
Why now u are supporting F-16 deal?

Jay said...

Hi Prasun, it seems that we don't hear much information about the ancient underwater city of Dwarka, directly related to Lord Krishna and Mahabharat. Is it just that GOI is not being proactive or perhaps some ancient secrets have been discovered over there.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Under these circumstances I do not think that they will have enough money and the will to procure many of the Tejas LIFT.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun Da,

After reading your analysis and news reports it seems selecting F-16 is not so much about IAF technical analysis but about what else India can extract from US. Also it seems Indian F-16 would be more like F-16I Sufa in terms of equipments and armament than this Block 70 std of LM.

Regards

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

Please also share some information if possible about failure of AIM-9X to intercept Su-22 over Syria.

I was reading some material on it and if analysis of that article is correct, Pakistan would be worry about its effectiveness against MIG-29 & SU-30MKI.

Regards,
Pawan

RJS said...

Hi Sir,

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2017/06/chinas-secret-landgrab-no-not-in-south.html?m=1

There have been multiple articles coming out in the media like the one above including the statement by ex Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran in 2012 , when he was the Chairman of the NSAB which caused a minor furore leading him to retract his statement, on how the Chinese have indulged in systematic landgrab in bits and pieces since 1962.What is the truth ?

Thanks in advance,

Warm Regards ,

Gopu said...

Will the IN get the Triton, besides the Guardian?

Has P-17A construction begun?

Also LM CEO is one of the 20 or so CEOs that will see Modi in DC later. Coincidentally, she is the only defense CEO from the list.

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
I believe Gripen will be selected instead of F16. Most media and forums have already declared F16 to be winner.The decision of selecting SE MII will be declared only after next round if evaluations of respective jets.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI: 1) Imperial Iran under the monarchy of the Pahlavi Dynasty was secular & never advocxated the spread of the Shia sect. The trouble started after the Iranian Mullahs came to power in 1979 & their foundational objectives were A) establishment of an Islamic Republic in Iran, & B) globally enlist more afherence to the Shia sect. This put Iran in direct collision with the Sunni Arabs. The anti-Israel rants began AFTER Israel voluntarily from southern Lebanon & this gave Iran the opportunity to support Hezbollah. The Sunni Arabs didn’t take it lightly & began conspiring against Iran & by 2004 when Iran was under global pressure due to its nuclear programmes, Iran decided to open a new front by bei9ng more anti-Israel than the Sunni Arabs, thereby challenging the KSA’s position as the first among equals within the Islamic Ummah. Luckily the Bush Administration saw through all this & realised that while on one hand, Iran had to be ‘tamed’ as the lesser party to negotiations through debilitating economic sanctions, the Sunni Arabas too had to be kept under turmoil, which was the easyier part, given the tribalism mindsets among the Sunni Arabs. So Bush first dangled the carrot by ensuring that Shia-majority Iraq became allied to Iran, while on the other Iran was pushed into a corner through economic Sanctions so that it could comply with the dedmands of the US & EU WRT nuclear negotiations. The Obama Administration only continued & enhanced all that was begun by Bush in 2003. And now Trump is following the same path that is mandated by the US’ supreme national interests. The Iran-Israel tiffs are mostly shadow-boxing. None of the 2 are interested in mortally harming one another to extinction. 2) Israel fully realises this & therefore is quite happy to keep the Sunnis pitted against the Shias & keep them engaged in infighting. 3) The Middle East is made up mostly of Sunni Arabs who were & still are a motley collection of tribes, barring Egypt. Hence, the existing rivalries/quarrels are all tribal in nature. 4) Both are wrong. KSA supports Wahhabi Salafists while Qtar supports religiosity, i.e. political Islamic movements like the Muslim Brotherhood that had in the past devastated Algeria & later Tunisia. 5) The KSA has always been blamed, including by the US 9/11 Commission. 6) How can you even say that? 2 days ago US attack helicopters came inside Pakistani airspace while the US drone-strikes have now begun targetting Haqqani Network leaders inside Pakistan at a time when Pakistan has been insisting that the Haqqani Network has no sanctuary inside Pakistan. What better is there to globally name n shame Pakistan? 7) Qatar doesn’t support ISIS. The ISIS was the collective creation of the West in collusion with the Sunni Arabs to flush out & bring into the open on a global scale all those who wanted to be Al-Qaeda-inspired lone-wolf attackers & make them converge within a defined geographical area so that they could be systematically eliminated with ease. This stratagem has succeeded beyond all expectations. After all, lone-wolf attackers are akin to a needle lodged somewhere inside a warehouse full of haystacks. To seek them out & eliminate them in individual countries on a global scxale is impossible. At the same time, the ISIS presence inside Iraq & Syria helped open a new front against Iran & this exerted enormous presssure on Iran which in turn compelled Iran to accept the terms & conditions of the nuclear deal struck with the US, EU & Russia.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ZAPHON: I never said anywhere that the F-16 deal is a done deal. All that I’[ve endeavoured to do through comments is to outline the pros & cons of various options, which in turn should enable one to zero in on the best available option. India should not give up on MRCA design & the Tejas Mk.2 should emerge at least as a prototype. But I don’t see any money being made available for series-production of such homegrown MRCAs, be it the Tejas Mk.2 or the AMCA. Of the three 5th-gen MRCAs (in Japan, South Korea & Turkey) being developed outside the US & Russia, only the Japanese & Turkish projects are firmly funded. Turkey has now partnered with BAE Systems to co-develop uts 5th-gen MRCA. As for India, this is where the taxpayer’s money is now being squandered:

1) Maharashtra has decided to waive farmers’ loans worth Rs.36,000 crores. UP is following suit.

2) According to the 19th Livestock census in 2012, the country has 5.3 million stray cows and bulls. According to the Uttar Pradesh-based Pandit Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Pashu Chikitsa Vigyan Vishwavidyalaya Evam Go-Anusandhan Sansthan, India needs Rs 11,607 crore annually to feed all its stray cattle. To prevent unproductive cows (not buffaloes or bulls) being sent to the abattoir, the Union government had launched the Rashtriya Gokul Mission in mid-2014, a national programme that entails, among other things, constructing cow sheds for the bovines. The revenue for the scheme is to be generated from selling cow dung and urine. The Union government has already spent Rs.580 crore on cow shelters. The country nowe has over 6,000 gaushalas. Go to any of them and see the pathetic condition of the cattle. The gaushala owners take money from the government and public and do nothing. Assuming that one-third of India's cattle are unproductive, we are talking of a public outlay of Rs 6.4 lakh crore annually or Rs 5,300 per citizen to shelter these cattle-all in the name of culture.

So, if the Indian taxpayer’s money is being squandered away in such ways, how can you expect India’s defence spending levels to increase in real terms???

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GOPU: The real & only value-addedf ToT takes place when the recipient country becomes part of a global supplier chain & stays so for prolonged periods. Japan & China are prime examples of this. India, on the other hand, made the mistake of making licenced-clones of USSR-era combat aircraft at a time when the USSR for its national security reasons refused to share aircraft design data & even prevented India during the Cold War era from performing customer-specific mods on such aircraft. Nor did the USSR allow Indian engineers/designers access to any of its aircraft design bureaux. Even today, not a single Russian IPR related to Su-30MKI has been shared with India. Eaxctly the opposite holds true for countries like the US, Germany, Sweden & UK. More than 90% DRDO engineers have since the 1980s been trained in various vocations in the US & their children today all either go to US educational institutions or are US Green Card-holders! Not a single one has gone to either USSR or Russia. Germany supplied the entire design blueprints of the Class 209/Type 1500 SSK to India, as did Sweden for the FH-77B 155mm towed howitzer. France did the same with its Viking rocket engine for PSLV which today is called Vikas engine. The UK supplied all the design blueprints for both the Gnat & Jaguar IS platforms. That’s why when the LCA project was begun, NOT a single component was ordered or co-developed with Russia. They were 100% either sourced from the West, or the homegrown components complied to NATO specs/performance parameters. Even the Russian K-36D 0-0 ejection seats were discarded in favour of Martin Baker’s product. The point I’m trying to make is, Russia with its strong isolationalist past, won’t change its mindset just for India’s sake & hence India can never hope to become part of any Russia-led global supplier chain as such chains will never come into existence. Hence, any licenced-production ToT has been a no-brainer since the 1960s & the Chinese realized all this way back in the late 1970s. Had Russia been market-oriented, it would have long ago proposed to co-develop with India a civilian STOL commuter transport variant of the IL-214 MRTA, for which a far greater demand exists than the military variant.

The above finally explains why India was STUPID to rely on USSR-era & Russia-era aircraft manufacturing OEMs & why India never benefitted in value-added terms from such a relationship & why OEMs like HAL never learnt to develop homegrown spinoff products that benefitted from Soviet-era aerospace technology lineage. So, to all those fanboys of MiG-35 or FGFA or SuperJet 100, kindly inject yourself with this reality doze & wake up from your utopian slumbers. HAL has its own product-lines like ALH, LCH & LUH & in future the MRH & these will keep HAL profitable. But HAL seriously needs to ensure that 50% of its annual earnings comes from being part part of the global supplier chain for commercial aviation-related products.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SIDDHARTH: Again, you’re over-blowing the fears of a bygone Cold War era. Today there’s far greater economic & military inter-dependence between the US & India. Will the US impose sanctions at the cost of terminating LEMOA? Why, unlike the past the US has stopped issuing any statement after each & every test-firing of an Indian TBM or IRBM or MRBM or ICBM or SLBM or LACM? Due to the fears expressed by you, should India decommission its C-17A Globemaster & C-130J-30 Super Hercules transports? Should the IAF re-engine its Tejas Mk.1s with non-US turbofans? Should the IN replace all LM-2500 gas0turbines on its P-17 FFGs & Project 71/IAC-1 with non-US gas-turbines? Shoild the DRDO stop collaborating with LM on the development of aerostat-mounted LORROS sensors? Do you want all India-registered airlines to let go of their US-supplied Boeing airliners? Exactly how far do you want to go for the sake of alleviating your sanctions-related fears?

Do read this for acquiring a greater perspective on this issue:

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/new-colours-of-the-white-house/article19145882.ece?homepage=true

To RAHUL & ANUP: Did I ever state that it is now absolutely certain that the F-16 will be ordered? Did I ever state anywhere that it is a done deal? Should India opt for the JAS-39 Gripen NG when Saab is continuing to supply Saab 2000 AEW & CS platforms to the PAF?

BHOUTIK: Simple, elementary economics should answer your questions. Which is easier, quicker & cheaper to develop? A more advanced derivative of an existing matire turbofan, or a turbofan whose definitive prototype has yet to emerge? GTRE needs to do a lot more tinkering till mid-2025 to make the Kaveri’s functional prototype. But can the end-users of India requiring such turbofans afford to wait till mid-2025? Will China & Pakistan allow such intervals to India for playing catch-up?

To FLANKER143: That’s right. I was then saying & I’m even now that there’s no money in the kitty for procuring two different types of L-MRCAs. It was to be either the homegrownh option or the imported option. Clearly, the home-grown options, be it the Tejas Mk.1A or LCA Mk.2 cannot be either developed or delivered in bulk within the timeframe desired by the Indian end-users. Since the previous RM’s return to Goa, the present-day RM who is also Union MoF, has concluded that procuring two types of L-MRCAs is a definite no-go if more financial resources are reqd to protect India’s cattle population. So, since cattle of gou mata along with the loan-ridden farmer populace take precedence over India’s homegrown aerospace industry’s ambitions, the Tejas/LCA will have to be sacrificed at the alter. In case you may have any misgivings in this matter, you are most welcome to seek solutions favourable to your line-of-thinking from folks like Arun Jaitlery & ‘fake’ yogis like that Adityanath fella. Your last option is to seek the divine intervention of Lord KUBERA (the heavenly Lord of Wealth). You have my very best wishes & blessings for such an endeavour.

If you want to lift your spirtits, then I suggest you read these:

http://www.frontline.in/science-and-technology/in-the-big-league/article9731133.ece?homepage=true

http://www.frontline.in/science-and-technology/swadeshi-success/article9731146.ece

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: Indeed, India leads a ‘refusing-to-develop’ charmed existence like Alice in Wonderland, as succinctly explained in these:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/hanging-out-to-dry-indian-leather-and-meat-industry-in-deep-shock/story-bOsVY4INdAAkg3Ag92mTAM.html

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/beef-ban-and-bloodshed/1/493111.html

https://thewire.in/4540/why-india-must-not-disrupt-its-balanced-bovine-economy-with-a-ban-on-beef/

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/toi-edit-page/the-assault-on-dairy-why-an-effective-ban-on-cow-slaughter-may-soon-banish-the-cow-itself/

India’s Rs 13,000 crore leather industry generates 95% of the leather for India's footwear needs. India ranks second in terms of footwear and leather garments production in the world. The country's leather industry has so far had no shortages of raw material, since India is home to 21% of the world's cattle/ buffalo population and 11% of the goat and sheep population. Despite this, India's export of leather and leather products for the financial year 2015 recorded a negative growth of 9.86%, down to $5.85 billion from $6.49 billion in the previous year. The shutdown of UP's abattoirs has led to a 40% production cut in the leather industry. The state's leather hub, Kanpur, contributed 4% to the state's GDP in 2013, the fourth highest contribution by a single district, according to government data. Kanpur also employs 6% of the state's urban workforce. 15% of India's total leather exports are from West Bengal. Maharashtra's leather business has gone down by nearly 90% after the state extended the ban on cow slaughter to bulls in March 2015. Around 6,000 people in Kolhapur, home of the famous, handcrafted Kolhapuri chappal, face an uncertain future. In Jalandhar, Punjab, 10,000 people associated with the industry have been affected. According to the Council for Leather Exports (CLE), Indian exporters have been flooded with calls from global brands like Prada and Gucci, inquiring about the supply status. Industry observers believe this move is likely to benefit Bangladesh, a trade competitor in leather exports, the most.

Here is another reality check. Most economic research shows that farmers buy cattle for their economic value rather than for worship. The ban on cattle slaughter in effect leaves them with no way to exit their investment, as some farmer groups point out. And the cattle population in India is stagnating. Bullocks are already not needed for work as the size of farms has fallen. And foreign cow breeds are fast growing in importance for their higher milk yield.

Welcome to the PLANET OF THE CATTLE! And despite all the brazen pronouncements, a 2017 World Bank report ranked India 130th out of 190 countries for ease of doing business. So, if all this is on-going, why on Earth are you wary of L-MRCAs, M-MRCAs & H-MRCAs all being of foreign origin? Loooolllllzzzzz!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: All weapons qualified on USAF F-16s will be available for the IAF as well, especially after India has been accepted even by the US as a full-fledged member of the MTCR. As for Pakistan, just look at what theie Jihadis had stashed away in their hideouts (anti-tank mines!):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jY6YvxxJhg

Pakistani Markets Flooded with Fake China-supplied Cosmetics:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1X3c1MAPd6M

Baluchistan MPA Majeed Achakzai hits & kills Traffic Police Warden with his SUV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdy0fiMDZKQ

Now look at the face of China’s FM yesterday as he read out the Riot Act to Islamabad & the PA’s COAS yesterday after the decapitation of 2 Chinese nationals in Quetta:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWY1b_HQf7w

Finally, watch these 3 ground reports aired from the Pakistani side of the LoC facing southern Jammu, i.e. Chhamb Sector. Pay close attention to the terrain & vegetation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VML3iFWoZHs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQ3jHtFJ4_U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4nPT7GghxA

To JAY: Whaaaaaaaaaaaattttttttttt!!! You’re worried about God-foresaken Dwarka when the rest of the country is deeply worried about the welfare of 5.3 million stray cows, bulls & buffaloes & is desperately seeking ways of raising Rs.11,607 crore annually to feed all its stray cattle! C’mon man, get your priorities right. India’s cultural nationalism as defined by that Adityanath fella’s definition of ‘Hindu Sanskruti’ comes first, everything else is secondary. So Dwarka & homegrown L-MRCA be God-damned & left to rot in hell. The only face-saving grace left in the country are such upright officers who don’t take shit from nobody:

Lady IPS Officer Gives it Back to Mis-behaving BJP Worker in UP:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmXdflWzUoA

To PAWAN: Kindly share the weblinks WRT that issue.

To RJS: Of course it is totally false. If it were true, then names of villages & tracts of districts would have been revealed. Since no such names are mentioned, it means these are all figments of one’s sick imagination. Furthermore, post-1962, both countries have adhered to the policy of having demilitarised 20km-depth stretches of land on either side’s perception of the LAC. Therefore, neither party has permanent structures like bunkers inside such stretches & this is precisely why both sides resort to frequent long-range patrolling missions. Had permanent structures existed in such areas, then there would never be any need for such patrolling for surveillance purposes. Delusional folks couching in Lutyens’ Delhi are simply unaware of the objective ground realities & LAC surveillance protocols & hence such outpourings of mumbo-jumbo. Landslides have taken place in areas of TAR plateau opposite Sikkim & hence the highways leading to Ngari-Gunsa are un-motorable.

Pierre Zorin said...

Hope I am not in the fanboys club! Didn't realise the Sovietskaya Soyuza then Russkie Federatsii were withholding genuine ToT. Most Indians believe the opposite hence leaning towards Moskva.
I can't watch anything Pakistani originated video because of the sheer trash in the comments and description- thumping defeat to IA causes them to violate LoC for example. Every US military analyst and personnel says Pakistan resorts to sectarianism and covert operations because they can't match Indian military conventionally and yet you read their propaganda. The only pleasing thing appears to be the Paki female anchors often with Allah approved extreme low cut blouses!!
Is it due to constitutional limit that Japan can't export P-1 maritime aircraft? I reckon India teamed up with Japan would have done wonders by now. Japanese Tank, sub and maritime aircraft seem to be of excellent quality and features.
Wonder why Japan is showing P-1 at La Bourget if they are not intending to export.
What about the LASA for interdiction or is it just a ground support aircraft - no idea what that is - all I saw was that it was armed to the teeth.
Finally, the PM of India always travels in an AI 747 which seems chartered. Didn't India buy a special aircraft from the US for VVIP transport like Air force 1?

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun Da,

The links are as follows:

http://www.combataircraft.net/2017/06/23/how-did-a-30-year-old-su-22-defeat-a-modern-aim-9x/

http://aviationweek.com/blog/we-didn-t-know-what-90-percent-switches-did

Regards,

Ashutosh said...

Regular Movement ?

http://kashmirreader.com/2017/06/26/movement-heavy-artillery-along-jammu-srinagar-highway-grim-reminder-kargil-war/

Gd said...

Hi Pawan,
This may answer Ur query.
http://www.combataircraft.net/2017/06/23/how-did-a-30-year-old-su-22-defeat-a-modern-aim-9x/

rad said...

hi prasun
do you think this mansarovar block was a cheap desperate attempt by the chinks to scare us with dealing with the yanks ??

is it worth while making f-16 in india ,which is going to extremely expensive to make in india . may be 100 mill a copy ? i dont think we should ever dream that the LM or their sub contractors will give us the tech !! not with trump around!

can we get refurbished f-16s as a n interim gap , which the US will happily give us .may be we can get 100 for 30 mill$ apiece with our avionics like elm-2052 and 8222 jammers as well.The Israeli halbit wide displays and the works !! with i derby-er and python -5 .of course we would be able to integrate our astra and future weapons and Israel would be glad with moola coming in !!.I am not fond of the amraam as it has been sold world wide and its basic characteristics is well known. i heard the su-22 was able to decoy the aim-9x with flares in syria !!

a couple of years is all it needs as all systems have been proven . Am I dreaming???
Then use the saved money to hasten the lca development ?

Zaphon said...

Mr. Sengupta, for avoidance of misunderstanding, I know you never suggested the F-16 was a "sure thing".

You are also right about wasteful expenditure. I have seen the cruelty to the cattle first hand. The slaughterhouses are horrendous and the shelters only marginally better.

Is there any hope for the IAF at all? More Rafales at least and maybe extended Su-30 production?

Can the MiG-21Bisons at least be kept going a while longer by cutting flying hours (use Hawks and simulators instead)?

Also, if the Tejas can be converted into a LIFT, it would of course retain all its air-to-air capabilities (even with some limitations) so it could perform, if needed as a swing role to bolster interceptor assets could it not?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

Not worried at all. Infact, forget imported aircraft we shall shortly be drinking imported milk too.LOL. It is no longer economically feasible to have milch cows and shortly buffaloes too with reference to the trade restrictions & slaughter ban. The indigenous cows giving that tasty yellowish milk is past anyway with imported jersey breeds ruling the roost. We certainly are globalizing fast..... Vasudaiv Kutumbakam...Bring the world to India.

AMIT BISWAS said...

Sir the second video post, bhimber sector in chamb was shown....it said PA occupied the indian territories back in 65,71.....
How strong is IA defences in that area now ?? considering the fact that you have reiterated many a times about such vulnerabilities in chicken neck area...
Has the IA improved its presence/abilities in that area as per threat perception or is it status quo now??

AMIT BISWAS said...

One more thing i have observed that pakistani troops are equipped with good quality helmets, BPJs and pads on limbs and are much more quipped with weapons than BSF/IA....I wonder why cant indian forces get some lessons from them

AMIT BISWAS said...

http://www.anandabazar.com/international/iran-s-supreme-leader-provokes-calls-whole-muslim-world-to-stand-by-kashmiri-protesters-dgtl-1.634105?ref=hm-ft-stry

Now even iranians are beahing the pakistani way....

AMIT BISWAS said...

@Pierre Zorin

" The only pleasing thing appears to be the Paki female anchors often with Allah approved extreme low cut blouses!! "

It was good one

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/wont-tolerate-this-law-minister-ravi-shankar-prasad-on-mob-lynching-of-16-year-old-on-train/ar-BBDgeDk?li=AAgges1

After Beef Ban, very Soon India will be declared as Racist Country. Thanks for Modi and its team for doing good job. Leather Industry, Local Milk Production and allied industries all are going to close very soon. Already IT Industry is feeling the heat. Very soon India is back to Before 1992 Era.

Jallikattu and Global Corporate.

Prasun, if you watch “JALLIKATTU” ban there is a great conspiracy hidden in it. By banning the Jallikattu traditions all the Indian origin cows will become extinct. As per statistics, India had 60 varieties of cows past 50 years ago. Now only 5 to 10 are remaining. Once everything is wiped out, Corporates will start importing Jersey Cows and start the Milk Production in large scale. Leading Corporates like PEPSI, COCO COLA, LEVER LTD etc already started their ground works in India for Milk Sales.

BJP/RSS and Great Hindutva Agendas

1. First destroy the language & culture and bring SANSKRIT as Gods’s Language.
2. Destroy the Indians live hood by banning beef, cattle, cow, bulls & sheep etc.
3. Destroy the agriculture.
4. Bring everything under Corporates.
5. Keep all the Indians under their foot and rule.

When All Tamils united against JALLIKATTU BAN and fought against Govt/Corprates some of our viewers commented that TAMILS ARE RACIST, CRIMINALS, FOOLS, IDIOTS etc.
Ha..Ha.. One by one India will loose its power, strength, culture etc to Illuminati
Agents.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Anonymous said...

@JAY

You said “Hi Prasun, it seems that we don't hear much information about the ancient underwater city of Dwarka, directly related to Lord Krishna and Mahabharat. Is it just that GOI is not being proactive or perhaps some ancient secrets have been discovered over there.”

Hello Jay you won’t hear anything about City of Dwarka and Lord Krishna. Because City of Dwarka is not in Gujarat. Real & True Dwaraka is in Cochin which is current state of Kerala.

Already many undersea excavations done in Gujarat Dwarka. There is nothing there. So GOI don’t know how to tell the truth outside. Because Current Bahavat Gita is written in 5th Century Gupta Period. Mahabarath not happened in North India. It actually happened in South India especially kerala & Tamil Nadu.

Pandavas or nothing but 5 Kings of PANDYAS & Gauravas are nothing but 100 MALAI NADU kuravas in present day Kerala. (You can goto Kerala and Verify it)

Kuravas (Gauravas) who are in Mountains are against Pandyas because Pandyas destroy their forest and convert them into Agricultural Lands. Krishna who is cow herder who lives in between both of them try to mediate and finally join with pandyas in the agricultual war.

I don’t want to go into deep because all the viewers will get upset and I will becomes Tamil Racist.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Bobby said...

to prasun

is c295 deal done ?? which one do you prefer an 132d/178 or c295 and what broke il214 deal, indian side or russian.

is it true varunastra was fired from scorpene ?

and why china want su35 when they have j20 this shows their lack of faith in j20,j31.
does su35 supercruises??

Anonymous said...

1) What is the status of 2 additional phalcons planned?

2) Does our financial situation allows pursuing mega deals like MRSV, single engine fighter, 4 frigates, s400 and others in short term? Even if IAC2 and FGFA is on hold?

3) Roughly How many Mirages, jaguars and mig29 have been upgraded?

4) Is super sukhoi too stuck due to sanctions?

5) I was curious :
A naval multirole heli, can it perform ASW without modifications?
I mean i understand if they are used for transport, search and rescue.
But how do they do ASW?
Can dunking sonar and relevant systems be added and removed at will or something?
Please explain.

VMT.

- VSJ

Anonymous said...

Hei Senthilkumar,
Can you stop sending messages other than defense? You are not only ignorant but also make yourself a fool. Nobody is calling Tamilians racist, but the best name for you is idiot.

I do not know where you got the knowledge that Dwaraka is not in Gujarat, but it is Cochin, in Kerala? I don't know what weed are you smoking.
I am near Cochin ir Kochi, the local name, is not even 1500 years old. Moreover, Kochi doesn't have good harbor. In olden times, a town, north of present day Kochi called Muziris (the exact location is still unknown), probably present day Kodungalloor, was the main port in ancient Kerala. This port has been mentioned in Jewish history books, a center for spices - probably the biggest city in South India.
Therefore, you first go back to school and learn some history. Your hate towards Hindus and Hinduism or rest of the Indian culture making you like any other Hindu hater, a bigot or Commie.

If Tamil language was indeed the mother language in South India, then its influence will be present in most of the South Indian languages. In fact other than a 30-50%, none of the South Indian languages have any commonalities with Tamil, especially in grammar. Grammar makes a language rich. In Tamil, the grammar is not very rich unlike Samskrtam. That is why Malayalam, the modern South Indian language has more influenced by Samskrtam than Tamil.

Jallikottu is a part of Tamil Hindu culture. You cannot take out the Hindu religion or Tamil culture from Jallikottu. Both are intertwined in this sport of taming the bulls. Each state has its own version of Jallikkottu. As the time passed it is less and less vibrant because many young people are not capable of taming the bull. Almost all of the people, if not 100%, who are involved in Jallikkottu are Hindus only.

So stop behaving like an idiotic bigot. You are a shame to rest of the Tamilians. The more you comment here, you prove to be more like a bigot.
Is this you?: https://mobile.twitter.com/1977_Senthil

Therefore, please stop ranting on topics other than defense.

A_Keralite

Brown Desi said...

Hi Prasun;
Re the current situation Kashmir while I firmly believe in India's rightful ownership and sovereignty over the entire Kashmiri territory but I do think their is an urgent need of healing touch to pacify the people. Why can't we bring the economic benefit to this integral state of India and promote business there. It is easier said than done, I am aware but this will create employment and better the quality of life of people there. More employment will result in less stone pelting idiots on the local street and even the baaghi types will realise what they will miss even they continue in the same old trend. I do agree with exterminating the militant type but in my humble opinion we can prevent a lot of youth from going militant if we bring wealth to the state. It pains me to see the blood of fellow Indian spilled or them getting injured this way for such a long time. Thanks to that idiocy of Mr Nehru.

One more thing to regular contributors on this blog; rather than identifying oneself with his/her state I think it will be in long term interest of India if we believe and proudly say we are INDIANS first.

JAI BHARAT.

Regards;

Brown Desi

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: Now that you know the truth about the USSR-era, you can subtract yourself from the list of fanboys. Neither did I mean that GOPU was in that list. To defeat your adversary, you must get inside the mind of that adversary & also access the terrain, vegetation & topography of the battlefields & that’s why I upload those videolinks for all to see, lest they start clamouring about MBTs that can fire away out to a distance of 5km (when the prevailing conditions enable target acquisition at no more than 700 metres. Ther are no no constitutional limits on exports of Japan-made military hardware & that’s precisely why the Kawasaki P-1 <R/ASW platform was on static display at this year’s Paris Air Show at Le Bourget. If India seriously weants to develop the AMCA, then it ought to partner with Japan. The DRDO should partner with its Japanese counterpart, the TRDI. Trying to go it alone is a no-brainer, considering the financial mess that India is in right now. Just absorb these:

Uttar Pradesh, which promised to waive crop loans for farmers in the state, is struggling to manage the sudden fiscal burden of nearly Rs 36,369 crore. Second, the additional burden of Rs 34,000 crore on the exchequer for the implementation of the seventh pay commission recommendations is not helping.

Maharashtra has decided to waive off loans of 40 lakh farmers with a cap of Rs.1.50 lakh and extend the incentive to farmers who have been repaying their loans. This amount will be equivalent to 25% of the repaid loan with an upper limit of Rs.25,000. This will cover 90% of farmers in the state, totalling Rs.34,000 crore. Maharashtra already has debt of over Rs.4 lakh crore.

Madhya Pradesh’s blanket loan waiver in Madhya Pradesh would cost Rs83,000 crore and benefit 5.8 million farmers,.

Karnataka has agreed to waive crop loans worth Rs8,165 crore or up to Rs50,000 per farmer borrowed from cooperative banks. Cooperative banks have disbursed Rs10,736 crore while nationalized and commercial banks have lent over Rs42,000 crore. The waiver will benefit over 2.2 million of the state’s farmers.

Punjab has announced total waiver of crop loans to the tune of Rs.2 lakh of small and marginal farmers as well as a flat Rs.2 lakh relief for all marginal farmers, irrespective of the loan amount. While this move would benefit 10.25 lakh farmers, including 8.75 lakh farmers up to 5 acres, the waiver will cost the debt-ridden state Rs 24,000 crore. There are about 18.5 lakh farming families in the state, and about 65% of them are small and marginal farmers.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: The AIM-9X, just like the AIM-132 ASRAAM, comes with an imaging IIR that can discriminate between the real target & decoy flare. So the AIM-9X’s malfunctioning must have been due to a different reason—either premature firing due to human-error or some other mechanical malfunction. In any case, since 1982, most air-to-air kills have been scored beyond-visual-range with BVRAAMs because of the lopsided natire of those engagements. For instance, the RWRs of most Sovioet-era combat aircraft had just 4 apertures: 2 facing forwards & 2 rearwards. Nothing to protect the portside & starboard side of the aircraft. So, the best way of destroying them was to attack them the side, i.e. with AEW & C’s battle management cues it was dirt-easy to find out the attitude v& heading of the target & so the launch aircraft had to remain perpendicular to the target when launching the BVRAAM & the targetted aircraft would not receive any warning because the RWRs were then unable to detect an RF emission. This is how the Israelis trounced the Syrians over the Bekaa valley in June 1982 & later the USAF & USN did the same to Iraq during OP Desert Storm. At the end of the days, it is TACTICS that scores over everything else.

To ASHUTOSH: Indeed it is. In the IA, heavy artillery refers to rocket artillery like Smerch-M or Pinaka or BrahMos-1. 144mm & 130mm howitzers are medium-artillery while 105mm howitzers are light artillery. In any case, that newsxpaper you weblinked is a lackey of Pakistan & its Editor regularly gets invited to give his anti-India soundbytes to various Pakistani TV channels. That’s why the news-content doesnl;t distinguish between soldiers & CAPFs or police. It refers to all of them as just ‘troops’. Also note the anti-US & anti-Israel bias of its Op-Eds & re-publishing of Op-Eds from discredited creatures like Munir Akram (who was arrested in the S while he was Pakistan’s permanent ambassador to the UN on charges of wife-beating in the previous decade).

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Here’s thervideo on the IA-PLA standoff in Sikkim:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyJmHMaF904

If the F-16 is to be only assembled under linence for the first 80 units, then the costs will be dirt0-cheap. Component localization can always proceed in a gradual manner. Leasing is not an option & it will not be financially viable. LCA development can’t be hastened because all the taxpayers’ monies are now being spent on farmers’ loan waivers. Here’s the total so far:

Uttar Pradesh, which promised to waive crop loans for farmers in the state, is struggling to manage the sudden fiscal burden of nearly Rs 36,369 crore. Second, the additional burden of Rs 34,000 crore on the exchequer for the implementation of the seventh pay commission recommendations is not helping.

Maharashtra has decided to waive off loans of 40 lakh farmers with a cap of Rs.1.50 lakh and extend the incentive to farmers who have been repaying their loans. This amount will be equivalent to 25% of the repaid loan with an upper limit of Rs.25,000. This will cover 90% of farmers in the state, totalling Rs.34,000 crore. Maharashtra already has debt of over Rs.4 lakh crore.

Madhya Pradesh’s blanket loan waiver in Madhya Pradesh would cost Rs83,000 crore and benefit 5.8 million farmers,.

Karnataka has agreed to waive crop loans worth Rs8,165 crore or up to Rs50,000 per farmer borrowed from cooperative banks. Cooperative banks have disbursed Rs10,736 crore while nationalized and commercial banks have lent over Rs42,000 crore. The waiver will benefit over 2.2 million of the state’s farmers.

Punjab has announced total waiver of crop loans to the tune of Rs.2 lakh of small and marginal farmers as well as a flat Rs.2 lakh relief for all marginal farmers, irrespective of the loan amount. While this move would benefit 10.25 lakh farmers, including 8.75 lakh farmers up to 5 acres, the waiver will cost the debt-ridden state Rs 24,000 crore. There are about 18.5 lakh farming families in the state, and about 65% of them are small and marginal farmers.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ZAPHON: There’s always hope for the IAF provided it gets what it wants & that too without much fuss. Unfortunately, this has not been happening since the early 1980s & that’s why we are all in dire straits. Be it MiG-21s or MiG-27s, no aircraft can be made to slug irt out beyond its TTSL—period.

To AMIT BISWAS: You must realise that back in 1965 & in 1971 when the CFL or cdease-fire line was in place under UNMOGIP, both countries were reqd to place sketches of each & every fortification along the CFL & the peacetime deployments of both were frozen by UNMOGIP to 1948-levels. But despite this, Pakistan could quickly transport its troops from Mangla to Chhamb & thence towards Akhnoor whereas India took a much longer mobilisation time because of only 1 road—Jammu-Pathankot Highway—was connecting J & K with the rest of India. Hence the PA captured Chhamb in 1965 but had to surrender it back to India under the Tashkent Agreement of 1966. In 1971 again the PA captured 2/3rds of what it had in 1965 but this time the IA did not want such real-estate back because the IA had captured sizeable chunks of land in northern J & K that could not be exchanged as they are too valuable. In addition, in 1972 under the Shimla Agreement the CFL was replaced by the LoC & with it all earlier restrictions imposed by UNMOGIP on troop deployment-levels also became history. To be noted in those videos is that not a single thermal imaging sight or LORROS-type surveillance device is in use anywhere in those bunkers. IA units posted along the LoC all have BJPs, thermal imagers. Lmee & elbow pads etc etc.

Also, do read this: http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/India-summons-Iranian-envoy-to-protest-Khameneis-observations-on-Kashmir/article15696990.ece

The wily Ayatollah NEVER used the term J & K or Indian Kashmir. Therefore, for all you know, if asked for a clarification, the Govt of Iran will simply say that the Ayatollah was referring to that part of Kashmir that was under Pakustan’s occupation. And he will say this because he knows very well that the Shias of PoK are the ones that are being persecuted in the true sense of the term. That’s diplomatic jargon for you to understand.

To BROWN DESI: Let me repeat a factoid once again: civilian unrest is limited to only 10 districts of J & K that accounts for 3% of J & K’s landmass & 5% of Kashmir Valley’s landmass. Those who really appreciate the healing touch have always received it. But how can one extend such touches to those who are IRRECONCILABLES? For them, there’s only 1 option left on the table: face annihilation. And part of this detoxification effort was announced yesterday:

Syed Salahuddin Is Global Terrorist https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zb-dX79nu-Q
Meanwhile the PA’s COAS is getting more & more paranoic with every passing month. Note the number of times he has visited the LoC since he took over as COAS:

October 9, 2016 Gen Raheel Sharif visits the Haji Pir sector.

December 2, 2016 Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa makes his first visit to the LoC in Uri sector after visiting HQ X Corps in Rawalpindi.

February 21, 2017 Gen Bajwa visits troops on the LoC at Mattewala, Munaawar sector.

March 24, 2017 Gen Bajwa visits the LoC in Kel sector and forward posts at Sharda in Neelam Valley.

April 30, 2017 Gen Bajwa visits the LoC in Haji Pir sector

May 13, 2017 Gen Bajwa visits troops deployed along the LoC Line in Nakyal Sector.

June 10, 2017: Gen Bajwa visits Pakistani positions along the LoC in the Muzaffarabad Sector.

June 26, 2017: Bajwa visits Pakistani positions along the LoC.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

M-777 UFH Trials in Pokhran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTQZT5OhBr0

Anonymous said...

@Ashutosh
@Prasun

That convoy (mentioned in 'KashmirReader') barely looks like 'artillery'. Even the light artillery of 105mm guns are 'towed'. I don't see anything in the tow!

Some journalists like to throw in terms like 'heavy artillery' in a metaphorical way than the literal way; and sometimes they're plain dumb-n-ignorant!

-Scrutator

AMIT BISWAS said...

@ PRASUN SIR

" To be noted in those videos is that not a single thermal imaging sight or LORROS-type surveillance device is in use anywhere in those bunkers. "

" The wily Ayatollah NEVER used the term J & K or Indian Kashmir. Therefore, for all you know, if asked for a clarification, the Govt of Iran will simply say that the Ayatollah was referring to that part of Kashmir that was under Pakustan’s occupation. "

You nailed it where it hurts more indeed...looolzz vmt for pointing it out for ignorant folks like us..

Regarding partnering with Japanese TRDI...i believe drdo should take up the weight reduction programme of arjun mk ii/new arjun version with them first...if it succeeds then hola hola like we did with barak 8 lrsam/barak 2 mrsam with israel.....

One thing i would like to know from you sir... who is supplying scorpene/kalvari class sub propeller ...is it imported from dcns or locally made in india???

Pierre Zorin said...

So is the plane PM Modi travels on chartered and not the Boeing purchased for VVIP transport?
I am also surprised that Russia continues to sell weaponry to China knowing they will end up being cloned regardless of what is agreed and for financial gain gives no consideration to the Chinese open hostility to India and its alliance with Pakistan. Russia was meant to NOT sell weapons to India's enemies! S-400 and Su35 would definitely level out any slight advantage India had over PLAAF. Like the Indian bureaucracy, Russian companies also drag their heels and when they lose contracts they complain. At least the Western countries have stuck to their embargo on China obtaining weapons.

Third point: India seems to be naïve about beef cattle. Beef cattle farming in the West is done as follows: Female cows or heifers are two categories: beef and dairy. Calves from beef breed are sent to abattoirs for beef if the calf is a bull/veal and rarely heifers which are found not very good for breeding from; female calves that seem good to breed from are used for that purpose. So beef cattle is primarily consistent of bulls and steers. The dairy breed naturally is used exclusively for dairy and only very old cattle are sent to abattoirs. The slaughtering is also done humanely using a shot bolt meaning the animal is not left suffering and dying a slow painful death. I can't understand all this Gou Mata business unless there is No distinction made between bulls and cows in India. The cows that are venerated appear to me to be the dairy breed and either way 75% or more slaughtering should be for bulls and steers like I said. If people are slaughtering dairy cows it is plain stupid!

Kaustav said...

Tongue firmly in cheek.....What is this nautanki on the Indo China border!! Pushing and camera shots only...Aw come on shoot each other like on the Indo pak side...No death no injury no martyrs...Bah... How dare they be so mature and deprive us couch Jingos of all the fun!!!☺

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,Thanks for the Iran-article.Again there is Lot of of info. from you.
Pakistan has more per capita designated terrorists than any other nation on earth.
Here some news:

(1) Completely unjustified': Pakistan fumes after US designates Syed Salahuddin a 'global terrorist'.
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-completely-unjustified-pakistan-fumes-after-us-designates-syed-salahuddin-a-global-terrorist-2485352

(2) After Hizbul & ISIS , now Al-Qaida in Kashmir.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/al-qaida-daesh-locked-in-india-turf-war/articleshow/59327695.cms

(3) Anger grows in Parachinar after three attacks in six months.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1341912/anger-grows-in-parachinar-after-three-attacks-in-six-months

(4) Darjeeling shutdown: Maoist splinter group in Nepal protests India’s “repression”.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/darjeeling-shutdown-maoist-splinter-group-in-nepal-protests-india-s-repression/story-oV45c6trXHU83cXPIhB4CJ.html

(5) Tourism: A ‘soft' weapon for Chinese hegemony
http://claudearpi.blogspot.in/2017/06/tourism-soft-weapon-for-chinese-hegemony.html

Kunal Jadhav said...

Hi Sir,

When will India take back pok, even month of June has almost past. Early waiting for good news.

sbm said...

I owe you an apology- you were right. I was wrong.

Ram Bharadwaj said...

Prasun,

Will the Guardian drone be the IN's MRMR? Is the cost estimates of $2 billion for 22 drones realistic?

Ram Bharadwaj said...

Prasun,

Has the PA dumped the chinese Z-10 attack helicopter in favor of the turkish T-129?

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Our people seem to forget about bairaha avatar of lord Bishnu. Otherwise we will also oppose killing of bairaha; but it doesn't happen due to lack of awareness. What I feel as a follower of sanatan Dharma is every life is important. I don't have right to destroy it; be it goat, fish, prawn etc. At the same time I can't impose the same upon others.

Shantanu kumar said...

Prasun:
1) What would be the ideal compromise in case the F-16 purchase goes through? Do you think if the JV between TATA and LM is would be allowed to keep the source codes for the Avionics or the Controls of the aircraft?
2) Do you still think it's possible that your previous prediction that of More Rafales and Tejas with no new single engine AC can still come true?
Best

Anonymous said...

@Ram Bharadwaj

The $2 billion is an estimate quoted by several media outlets based on what Pentagon has allocated for the Predator-B/Reaper drones. Pentagon came under fire recently for running an excessively bloated drone program - with excessive bureaucracy and wastage resulting in 9 to 10 times the originally estimated costs!

Firstly, the drones sold to India will be without any weapons package (which in itself could sometimes be more than the price of the drone); Secondly, Indian Navy is much more leaner (low salaries to personnel and less bureaucracy).

As such the actual cost of the drones (including maintenance, support, training etc) will definitely be less than a $1 billion!!!

-Scrutator

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: To find out all about the Scorpene SSK’s localized components, kindly check up a previous thread that contains detailed schematics of all those components. As for more new ground-reports from the PoK side of the LoC, here are 2 more:

Chhamb Sector: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5rymvs_ikhtilaf-e-rai-26th-june-2017_news

Tattapani Sector: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPrFD8jOy6E

To KUNAL JADHAV: Where’s the great hurry? Matters need to progress in a step-by-step manner. Yesterday the UJC & its Cgief was declared a global terrorist & in the near future the occupation of PoK will be declared as both illegal & as the sanctuary housing global terrorists. Only then will the coast be clear for expeditionary ground campaigns.

SBM: Relax & take it easy.Nothing’s lost for anyone of us.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: Those figures are still being worked out, since it will not only involve the supply of the UAVs, but also of related ground-control stations & their SATCOM up-links.down-links & related ground-based servers/processors from CISCO Systems & Raytheon & their overall systems integration architecture to make them compatible with GSAT-7. Finally, the entire ground-based MRO facilities for fleet support. Therefore, it is an entire solution that’s being acquired, & not just the flyable UAS platforms.

To SHANTANU KUMAR: 1) Why should there be any reqmt for any accessible source-codes? What will such codes be used for? And what kinds of hardware be be required in case source-codes are reqd to be updated or changed? 2) No, period. They are all history now & it’s high time everyone faced & accepted the financial realities. Daydreaming & fanboy-type utopia won’t give anyone any tangible results.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: Here’s the Primer on what’s happening along the tri-junction:

Sikkim’s eastern shoulder descends into the Chumbi Valley to the point near the trijunction with Bhutan, which is disputed. North Sikkim is the only area in the east from where any meaningful ground offensive into Tibet can be mounted by India. During Operation Falcon in 1986, following the Sumdorong Chu standoff in Wangdung, T-72Ms, 130mm M-46 howitzers and BMP-2 ICVs were inducted into North Sikkim. As matching ground transportation infrastructure lagged behind and slowed down to ZERO after the 1993 and 1996 peace accords, the military deterrent capability also withered away. So twice, once after 1962 and again in 1987, infrastructure development plans were aborted. Both now & in August 2007 China demanded the removal of two Indian Army bunkers from its outpost at Batang La near the India-Bhutan-China tri-junction. These bunkers were constructed in 2005 and then there were no protests from the Chinese side. In this section of the Sino-Indian boundary, India wants the international boundary to run along Batang La, but China wants it further down south along the Torsa Nala in Gamochen, 18 miles south of Batang La. China’s desire to redraw the border and demands for dismantling the Indian bunkers is a strategy to gain tactical advantage, since at present it is in a disadvantageous position in the adjoining Chumbi Valley. In May 2008, China began to make fresh claims on Sikkim’s northernmost tip that appears on the map like a protruding finger and thus termed Finger Area. It contains some stone cairns or heaps of stones that demarcate the India-China border. However, China has continued to state that it will demolish those cairns as the current mapping is not entirely correct and is based on the 1924 Survey of India. China also constructed a road that crossed the Finger Area. Although India protested such moves in February 2008, Beijing continued assert its claims and succeeded in introducing the issue as an agenda in the boundary talks between the two countries. The most sustained fingering by PLA on the border was then in North Sikkim’s Gyangyong area. The border with Sikkim was settled in 1890 as per Anglo-Chinese boundary delineation convention along the watershed between the Sikkim Teesta and the Tibetan Mochu rivers. Agreement on this alignment was reiterated in the 2003 Sino-Indian agreement to promote trade between Sikkim and Tibet via Nathu La. This boundary, though, has not been jointly demarcated on the ground. On June 16, 2008 a vehicle-mounted PLA patrol came one kilometre into the Finger Area making it the 65th intrusion this year in the same area. On one occasion, Indian soldiers formed a human chain to block the entry of the PLA. Mao Swe, the then Chinese Consul General in Kolkata, defused the crisis by publicly reaffirming Beijing’s recognition of Sikkim as part of India. He added that these were not incursions but differences of perception.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Until 2008, the Sikkim boundary was a settled issue. Only the status of Arunachal Pradesh was periodically questioned. China, raising the ante on the Sikkim boundary issue and thus India’s discomfiture, has in part to do with India’s strategic partnerships with the US, Japan and Australia. Thus, against India, Beijing is vigorously pursuing one finger of its so-called “five finger policy”—Bhutan. The other four fingers are Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh (both parts of India), Nepal and Sikkim; while the palm is Tibet. Also, the PLA is looking for more elbow room in the strategically important Chumbi Valley. Bhutan shares a 470km-long border with China, which is also disputed. Some of the disputed areas along the border are on the western side adjoining the Chumbi Valley. China claims a large chunk of the border territories, stretching from Doklam in the west and then from Gamochen to Batang La, Sinche La, and down to the Amo Chhu. The disputed area in Doklam covers 89 sq km, while the disputed areas in Sinchulumpa and Gieu cover about 180 sq km. Both Bhutan and China have been engaged in talks since 1984 to solve their border dispute. During the 10th round of Sino-Bhutan border talks in 1996 and again in 2004, China had proposed the exchange of 495 sq km of Pasamlung and Jakarlung valleys in central Bhutan for a 269 sq km tract comprising Sinchulumpa, Dramana and Shakhtoe in north-west Bhutan. It is important to note that Sinchulumpa borders Sikkim. China wants Bhutan to cede Gamochen because it is very close to Chumbi Valley and is a highly strategic area perceived as militarily vulnerable for China as the British colonialists had used this as a gateway to launch their military expedition in Tibet in 1904. The British had occupied this area for nine months then. Although Bhutan has accepted the territorial swap proposal in principle, no concrete solution has been arrived at as yet. China’s idea is to resolve its border dispute with Bhutan in one stroke through a package deal, rather than through the sector-by-sector approach that it has so far been having not only with Bhutan but with India too. Interestingly, China had resolved its border dispute with Nepal through a package deal only, not through the laborious sector-by-sector approach.

The latest "incursion" by PLA troops into Sikkim took place on June 26, 2017, with a vehicle-mounted patrol crossing almost 1km into the ‘Finger Area’, to which Beijing is now laying claim despite New Delhi’s position that the Sikkim border question is settled. The PLA men entered Finger Area on light 4 x 4 vehicles and later returned to Chinese territory. Though it was believed until recently that the Chinese have reconciled to the idea of Sikkim being a part of India, there have been at least 65 incidents of transgressions reported in the last six months by PLA personnel into the Finger Area of the State. Also, there have been reports of over 150 transgressions by the PLA across the LAC in 2016. During the 2007 visit of India's then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee to Beijing, the Chinese reportedly stunned him by raising the issue of Finger Area.

Jay said...

Hi Prasun, I recall you had made this suggestion a while back that GOI pool all the aircraft orders together for commercial planes and make India part of the manufacturing supply chain by using the buying power, like how China has done.
In my own little way, I had also written to PM Modi's suggestions website regarding this.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/need-to-make-commercial-planes-in-india-says-spicejet-chief/articleshow/59341541.cms

I hope you can use perhaps leverage your greater contacts to float this very important idea again which could create hundreds of thousands of jobs in India and also significantly uplevel the manufacturing skill base.

rad said...


hi prasun
then can i take it that you favour license assembly of the f-16 rather than the costly affair of trying to make it here?what is the cost per ac you would look forward to?

in my opinion we should go for 150 f-16 in a fixed price phased manner to compensate for the mig 21 - 23-, 27 etc to take advantage of the reduced prices for a large order.

what about refurbished ones ?

Harsh said...

Hello prasun sir, INS vishakhapatnam is to be commissioned next yr but the deal for the 127mm guns are still in limbo. Are there any chances of the deal going through or the vishakhapatnam class and p-17a frigates will also end up with the mismatched 76mm guns.

AMIT BISWAS said...

" As matching ground transportation infrastructure lagged behind and slowed down to ZERO after the 1993 and 1996 peace accords, the military deterrent capability also withered away. So twice, once after 1962 and again in 1987, infrastructure development plans were aborted. "

What stops IA to adopt a offensive approach in these areas....fear of escalation from Chinese??? ( sir you have already said that Chinese deployment is skewed in Tibetan border)....or feku and spymaster didn't give IA " free hand " to deal with it....

and what stops the feku and his team to at least even start working on highway infrastructures near Sikkim/arunachal/ladakh by employing Japanese/Austrian/Swiss/Korean vendors having sophisticated technologies...bcoz indian vendors will take > 12 years as in bhupen hazarika setu

see those chinese morons not even sparing mansarovar yatra to be used as bargaining tool for such idiotic acts....

can we expect a rap on the knuckles of chinese any time soon by IA??

Also what action is expected from GOI about ayotollahs kashmir rant suppose GOI does not believe , target was sunni dominated pakistan rather than itself

Kaustav said...

Thanks a lot Prasunda, The Chinese puzzle is complicated but does China want more territory, which itself is non-negotiable for any political dispensation in India; or are they looking at a wider canvas?

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,

Whats your view on this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLAt7hgoZQ8

Bollywood concert in Xinjiang, must be very old. I dont think such events now can happen in Xinjiang. I think even the singer is uyghur.

Girish said...

To Amit Biswas @ June 28, 2017 at 9:02 AM

You are quite obviously not a fan of 'feku and his team', but to blame them for the short-sightedness of their (multiple) predecessors is equally, if not even more, short-sighted. A problem exacerbated by DECADES of indecisiveness and inaction cannot be resolved in a single tenure of 5 years.

Remember, to 'decorate' or 'paint' the home, one must first clean out the mess of old 'dirt', 'cobwebs', 'mould', 'old flaky paint', amongst many others, that exists. Then lay the foundation for the (new) 'paint'. The 'decorations' also need to planned properly and well in advance (when, where, how many, their dependencies, and of course 'how'). Only then will the (new) 'paint' hold, and the (new) 'decorations' be long lived and prove their usefulness. Please note, I DO NOT consider the transport and other infrastructure development in Arunachal Pradesh a mere decoration, but a necessity. I merely used those words to illustrate a point.

Having said that, it IS the responsibility of EVERY incumbent government to try and correct the mistakes of their predecessors.

As for rapping the Chinese on their knuckles, as this point in time, I doubt we have much to gain. I would rather wait till we have an opportunity to give them a bloody nose (and break it as well in the process). If we can break their jaw as well, that would be a nice bonus. (As long as no actual territory is lost or ceded to the Chinese).

That said, I am not sure we are in a position to break anything of theirs at this time. For now, we must be satisfied with holding our own. We do seem to have a long way to go before we are strong enough to ensure that even China decides it would be wise to not needle us.

Regards,
GS

RAT said...

Hi Prasun,
Quick question hasn't LM and US gov't stopped Israelis from using these radars on any US made fighters? Or is it just rumour? Please reply.