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Thursday, March 22, 2018

Israel Owns Up To Conducting OP ORCHARD Surgical Air-Strike


The mighty Euphrates river is the subject of the prophecies in the Bibles Book of Revelation, where it is written that the river will be the scene of the battle of Armageddon: “The sixth angel poured out his bowl on the great river Euphrates, and its water was dried up to prepare the way for the kings from the East.” Today, time seems to stand still along the river. The turquoise waters of the Euphrates flow slowly through the northern Syrian provincial city Deir el-Zor, whose name translates as ‘monastery in the forest’. Farmers till the fields, and vendors sell camel’s hair blankets, cardamom and coriander in the city's bazaars. Occasionally, archaeologists visit the region to excavate the remains of ancient cities in the surrounding area, a place where many people have left their mark—the Parthians and the Sassanids, the Romans and the Jews, the Ottomans and the French, who were assigned the mandate for Syria by the League of Nations and who only withdrew their troops in 1946. Deir el-Zor is the last outpost before the vast, empty desert, a lifeless place of jagged mountains and inaccessible valleys that begins not far from the town center. But on a night two years ago, something dramatic happened in this sleepy place. It's an event that local residents discuss in whispers in teahouses along the river, when the water pipes glow and they are confident that no officials are listening—the subject is taboo in the state-controlled media, and they know that drawing too much attention to themselves in this authoritarian state could be hazardous to their health. Some in Deir el-Zor talk of a bright flash which lit up the night in the distant desert. Others report seeing a gigantic column of smoke over the Euphrates, like a threatening finger. Some talk of omens, while others relate conspiracy theories. The pious older guests at Jisr al-Kabir, a popular restaurant near the city’s landmark suspension bridge, believe it was a sign from heaven. All the rumours have long since muddied the waters as to what people may or may not have seen. But even the supposedly advanced Western world, with its state-of-the-art surveillance technology and interconnectedness through the mass media, has little more solid information than the people in this Syrian desert town. What happened in the night of September 6, 2007 in the desert, 130km (81 miles) from the Iraqi border, 30 km from Deir el-Zor, was until now one of the great mysteries of our times. At 2:55pm on that day, the Damascus-based Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported that Israeli combat aircraft coming from the Mediterranean had violated Syrian airspace at about one o'clock in the morning. “Air-defence units confronted them and forced them to leave after they dropped some ammunition in deserted areas without causing any human or material damage,” a Syrian military spokesman said, according to the news agency. There was no explanation whatsoever for why such a dramatic event was concealed for half-a-day. At 6:46pm, Israeli government radio quoted a military spokesman as saying: “This incident never occurred.” At 8:46pm, a spokesperson for the US State Department said during a daily press briefing that he had only heard “second-hand reports” which “contradict” each other. To this day, Syria and Israel, two countries that have technically been at war since the founding of the Jewish state in 1948, have largely adhered to a bizarre policy of downplaying what was clearly an act of war. Gradually it became clear that the IDF-AF pilots did not drop some random ammunition over empty no-man’s land on that night in 2007, but had in fact deliberately targetted and destroyed a secret Syrian complex. Was it a nuclear plant, which scientists were on the verge of completing? Were North Korean, perhaps even Iranian experts, also working in this secret Syrian facility? When and how did the Israelis learn about the project, and why did they take such a great risk to conduct their clandestine operation? Was the destruction of the Al Kibar complex meant as a final warning to the Iranians, a trial run of sorts intended to show them what the Israelis plan to do if Teheran continues with its suspected nuclear weapons programme?
Tel Aviv, late 2001: An inconspicuous block of houses located among eucalyptus trees is home to the headquarters of the legendary Israeli foreign intelligence agency, the MOSSAD. A memorial to agents who died in special covert operations behind enemy lines stands in the small garden. There are already more than 400 names engraved on the gray marble, with room for many more. In the main building, intelligence analysts are trying to assemble a picture of the new Syrian President. In July 2000, Bashar Al Assad succeeded his deceased father, former President Hafez Assad. The Israelis believed that the younger Assad, a politically inexperienced ophthalmologist who had lived in London for many years and who was only 34 when he took office, would be a weak leader. Unlike his father, an unscrupulous political realist nicknamed ‘The Lion’ who had almost struck a deal with the Israelis over the Golan Heights in the last few months of his life, Bashar Assad was considered relatively unpredictable. According to Israeli agents in Damascus, the younger Assad was trying to consolidate his power by espousing radical and controversial positions. He supplied massive amounts of weapons to the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, for their ‘struggle for independence’ from the ‘Zionist regime’. He received high-ranking delegations from North Korea. The MOSSAD was convinced that the subject of these secret talks was a further upgrading of Syria’s military capabilities. Pyongyang had already helped Damascus in the past in the development of medium-range ballistic missiles and chemical weapons like Sarin and Mustard Gas. But when Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN) informed their MOSSAD counterparts that a Syrian nuclear programme was apparently under discussion, the intelligence professionals were dismissive. Nuclear weapons for Damascus, a nuclear plant literally on Israel’s doorstep? For the experts, it seemed much too implausible. Besides, the senior Assad had rebuffed Dr Abdul Qadeer ‘Bhopali’ Khan, the Pakistani ‘father of the atom bomb’, when Khan tried to sell him centrifuges for uranium enrichment on the black market in the early 1990s. The Israelis also knew all too well how complex the road to the nuclear bomb is, after having spent a lengthy period of time in the 1960s to covertly procure uranium and then develop nuclear weapons at their secret laboratories in the town of Dimona in the Negev desert. They took extreme measures to prevent then-Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein from following their example: On a June night in 1981, IDF-AF F-15As and F-16As, in violation of international law, entered Iraqi airspace and destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor (Tammuz-1) near Baghdad under Operation Opera. The Israelis took a pinprick approach to dealing with the ‘little’ Assad. In 2003, the IDF-AF conducted multiple air strikes against positions on the Syrian border, and in October Israeli F-15Is flew a low-altitude mission over Assad’s residence in Damascus. It was an arrogant show of power that even had many at the MOSSAD shaking their heads, wondering how Assad would respond to such humiliating treatment. At that time, the nuclear plant on Euphrates had likely entered its first key phase. In the spring of 2004, the American National Security Agency (NSA) detected a suspiciously high number of telephone calls between Syria and North Korea, with a noticeably busy line of communications between the North Korean capital Pyongyang and a place in the northern Syrian desert called Al Kibar. The NSA dossier was sent to the Israeli military’s ‘8200 Unit’, which is responsible for radio-electronic reconnaissance (comprising both ELINT and SIGINT) and has its antennae set up in the hills near Tel Aviv. Al-Kibar was ‘flagged’, as they say in intelligence jargon. In late 2006, AMAN decided to ask the British for their opinion. But almost at the same time as the delegation from Tel Aviv was arriving in London, a senior Syrian government official (Ibrahim Othman, the head of the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission) checked into a hotel in the exclusive London neighborhood of Kensington. He was under MOSSAD surveillance and turned out to be incredibly careless, leaving his computer in his hotel room when he went out. Israeli agents took the opportunity to install a so-called ‘Trojan horse’ programme, which can be used to secretly and remotely steal data, onto the Syrian’s laptop. The hard-drive contained construction plans, letters and hundreds of photos. The photos, which were particularly revealing, showed the Al Kibar complex at various stages in its development. At the beginning—probably in 2002, although the material was undated—the construction site looked like a treehouse on stilts, complete with suspicious-looking pipes leading to a pumping station at the Euphrates. Later photos showed concrete piers and roofs, which apparently had only one function: to modify the building so that it would look unsuspicious from above. In the end, the whole thing looked as if a shoebox had been placed over something in an attempt to conceal it. But photos from the interior revealed that what was going on at the site was in fact probably work on fissile material. One of the photos showed an Asian in blue tracksuit trousers, standing next to an Arab. The MOSSAD quickly identified the two men as Chon Chibu and Ibrahim Othman. Chon is one of the leading members of the North Korean nuclear programme, and experts believe that he is the chief engineer behind the Yongbyon plutonium reactor. Othman is the director of the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission. By now, both AMAN and the MOSSAD were on high alert. After being briefed, then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert asked: “Will the reactor be up and running soon, and is there is a need to take action?: Hard to say, the experts said. The Prime Minister asked for more detailed information, preferably from first-hand.

Istanbul, a CIA safe house for high-profile defectors, February 2007. An Iranian General had decided to switch sides. He was a big fish, of the sort rarely caught in the nets of the CIA and MOSSAD. Ali-Reza Asgari, 63, a handsome man with a moustache, was the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (PASDARAN) in Lebanon in the 1980s and became Iran’s Deputy Defence Minister in the mid-1990s. Though well-liked under the relatively liberal then-President Mohammad Khatami, Asgari fell out of favour after the election victory of hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005. Because he had branded several men close to Ahmadinejad as corrupt, there was suddenly more at stake for Asgari than his career: His life was in danger. Sources in the intelligence community claim that Asgari’s defection to the West was meticulously planned over a period of months. However, Amir Farshad Ebrahimi, a former Iranian Media Attaché in Beirut who fled to Berlin in 2003 and who had known Asgari personally for many years, has since revealed that the General contacted him twice to ask for help in his escape—first from Iran in the second half of 2006 and later from Damascus. In Ebrahimi’s version of events, Asgari succeeded in crossing the border into Turkey at night with the help of a smuggler. Ebrahimi says he only notified the CIA and turned his friend over to the Americans after Asgari had reached Istanbul. But from that point on, the versions of the story coincide again. The Americans and Israelis soon discovered that the Teheran insider was an intelligence goldmine. For the Israelis, the most alarming part of Asgari’s story was what he had to say about Iran’s nuclear programmes. According to Asgari, Teheran was building a second, secret plant in addition to the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, which was already known to the West. Besides, he said, Iran was apparently funding a top-secret nuclear project in Syria, launched in cooperation with the North Koreans. But Asgari claimed he did not know any further details about the plan. After a few days, the General’s handlers flew him from Istanbul, considered relatively unsafe, to the highly secure Rhein-Main Air Base near Frankfurt. “I brought my computer along. My entire life is in there,” Asgari told his friend Ebrahimi, who identified him for the Americans. Asgari contacted Ebrahimi another two times, once from Washington and then from ‘somewhere in Texas’. The defector wanted his friend to let his wife know that he was safe and in good hands. The Iranian authorities had announced that Asgari had been “kidnapped by the MOSSAD and probably killed”. But then nothing further was heard from Asgari. US authorities had apparently created a new identity for their high-level Iranian source. Ali-Reza Asgari had ceased to exist. Olmert was kept apprised of the latest developments. In March 2007, three senior experts from the political, military and intelligence communities were summoned to his residence on Gaza Street in Jerusalem, where Olmert swore them to absolute secrecy. The trio was to advise him on matters relating to the Syrian nuclear programme. Olmert wanted results, knowing that he would have to gain the support of the US before launching a surgical strike. At the very least, he needed tacit US consent if he planned to send IDF-AF combat aircraft into regions that were only a few dozen kilometres from military bases in Turkey, a NATO member-state. In August, Maj Gen Yaakov Amidror, the trio’s spokesman, delivered a devastating report to Olmert. While the MOSSAD had tended to be reserved in its assessment of Al Kibar, the three men were now more than convinced that the site posed an existential threat to Israel and that there was evidence of intense cooperation between Syria and North Korea. There also appeared to be proof of connections to Iran. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, who experts believed was the head of Iran’s secret ‘Project 111’ for outfitting Iranian ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, had visited Damascus in 2005. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad travelled to Syria in 2006, where he is believed to have promised the Syrians more than US$1 billion in assistance and urged them to accelerate their efforts. According to this version of the story, Al Kibar was to be a back-up plant for the heavy-water reactor under construction near the Iranian city of Arak, designed to provide plutonium to build a bomb if Iran did not succeed in constructing a weapon using enriched uranium. “Assad apparently thought that, with his weapon, he could have a nuclear option for an Armageddon,” says Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, the former Director of AMAN. Olmert approved a highly risky undertaking: a fact-finding mission by the IDF’s ‘Sayaret Matkal’ special operations forces, on foreign soil. On an overcast night in August 2007, says intelligence expert Ronen Bergman, Sayaret Matkal personnel travelling in helicopters at low altitude crossed the border into Syria, where they unloaded their testing equipment in the desert near Deir el-Zor and took soil samples in the general vicinity of the Al Kibar plant. The group had to abort its daring mission prematurely when it was discovered by a patrol. The Israelis still lacked the definitive proof they needed. However, those in Tel Aviv who favoured quick action argued that the results of the samples “provided evidence of the existence of a nuclear programme”. One of them was the head of the trio of experts, Yaakov Amidror. Amidror, a deeply religious man strongly influenced by his fear of a new Holocaust, also found evidence suggesting that construction on the Syrian plant was to be accelerated. He told Olmert about a ship called the Gregorio, which was coming from North Korea and which was seized in Cyprus in September 2006. It was found to have suspicious-looking pipes bound for Syria on board. And in early September 2007, the freighter Al-Ahmad, also coming from Pyongyang, arrived at the Syrian port of Tartous—with a cargo of uranium materials, according to the MOSSAD’s information. At that time, no one was claiming that Al Kibar represented an immediate threat to Israel’s security. Nevertheless, Olmert wanted to attack, despite the tense conditions in the region, the Iraq crisis and the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Olmert notified then-US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and gave his own military staff the authority to bomb the Syrian plant. The countdown for Operation Orchard had begun.

Ramat David Air Base, September 5, 2007. Israel’s Ramat David air base is located south of the port city of Haifa. It is also near Megiddo, which according to the Bible will be the site of Armageddon, the final battle between good and evil. The order that the IDF-AF pilots in the squadron received shortly before 11pm on September 5, 2007 seemed purely routine: They were to be prepared for an emergency exercise. All 10 available F-15I aircraft, known affectionately by their pilots as ‘Raam’ (Thunder), took off into the night sky and headed westward, out into the Mediterranean. It was a manoeuvre designed to deflect attention from the extraordinary mobilisation that had been taking place behind the scenes. Three of the 10 F-15Is were ordered to return home, while the remaining seven continued flying east-northeast, at low altitude, toward the nearby Turkey-Syria border, where they used their precision-guided directed-energy weapons (DEW) to eliminate a radar station. Within an additional 18 flight minutes, they had reached the area around Deir el-Zor. By then, the F-15I pilots had the coordinates of the Al Kibar complex programmed into their on-board inertial navigation and mission computers. The attack was filmed from the air, and as is always the case with these strikes, the 1,000lb laser-guided bombs were far more destructive than necessary. For the Israelis, it made little difference whether a few guards were killed or a larger number of people. Immediately following the brief confirmation of the surgical air-strike (ARIZONA, which was the relayed the code-word for Target Destroyed), Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, explained the situation, and asked him to inform President Assad in Damascus that Israel would not tolerate another nuclear plant—but that no further hostile action was planned. Israel, Olmert said, did not want to play up the incident and was still interested in making peace with Damascus. He added that if Assad chose not to draw attention to the Israeli air-strike, he would do the same. In this way, a deafening silence about the mysterious event in the desert began. Nevertheless, the story did not end there, because there were many who chose to shed light on the incident--and others who were intent on exacting revenge.

Washington, DC, late October 2007. The independent Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) is located less than a mile from the White House. It is more important than some US federal departments. The office of its founder and President, David Albright, who holds a degree in physics and was a member of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) group of experts in Iraq, is in suite 500 of the brick building that houses the ISIS. As relaxed as he seems to his staff, in his pleated khaki trousers and rolled up shirtsleeves, they know that it is no accident that Albright has managed to turn the ISIS into one of the leading think-tanks in Washington DC. Albright’s words carry significant weight in the world of nuclear scientists. The ISIS spent four weeks analyzing the initial reports about the mysterious air-strike in Syria, combing over satellite images covering an area of 25,000 square kilometres (9,650 square miles) before they discovered the destroyed complex of buildings in the desert. In April 2008, Albright received an unexpected invitation from the CIA to attend a meeting. There, then-CIA Director Gen Michael Hayden showed him images that the Israelis had obtained from the Syrian computer in London (much to the outrage of officials in Tel Aviv, incidentally, as it provided insights into MOSSAD sources). The photos enabled Albright, who was familiar with the dimensions and characteristics of North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor, to compare the various stages at Al Kibar. “There are no longer any serious doubts that we were dealing with a nuclear reactor in Syria,” the scientist had then concluded. Albright believes that the CIA’s strange behaviour had to be understood in the context of the Iraq disaster. At the time, the administration of then-President George W. Bush Jr, citing CIA information, constantly repeated the false claim that Saddam Hussein had possessed weapons of mass destruction. This time around, US intelligence wanted to prove that the threat was real. But where did the Syrians get the uranium they needed for their heavy-water reactor, and in which secret plants was it enriched? In addition to the North Koreans, were the Iranians also involved? And what did the latest images of this ‘Manhattan Project’ in the Syrian desert actually depict—the conversion of an existing plant or a completely new facility?

Vienna, the UN complex on Wagramer Straße, headquarters of the IAEA’s nuclear detectives. An impressive collection of national flags hangs in the lobby, like sails waiting for a tailwind. Of the 192 UN member-states, 150 are also members of the IAEA, and almost all UN members have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The problem children of the nuclear world, Israel, Pakistan and India, have not signed the treaty. All three of them possess—or in the case of Israel, are believed to possess--nuclear weapons. Signatory states like Syria and Iran are entitled to support in pursuing the peaceful use of nuclear energy. They are also required to either phase out nuclear weapons and prevent their proliferation (in the case of the nuclear ‘haves’) or refrain from developing them in the first place (in the case of the ‘have-nots’). The IAEA, whose job is to verify compliance with the provisions of the NPT, has 2,200 employees and an annual budget of roughly $300 million. That may sound impressive, but it is really just peanuts if the claim repeatedly made by politicians around the world is true, namely that the possibility of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of blackmailing dictators or terrorists poses the greatest danger to humanity. The nuclear detectives can admittedly be deployed to use their highly sensitive testing equipment to obtain a ‘nuclear fingerprint’ in any particular place, but they also need access to reactors. Libya has caused problems in the past, while today’s recalcitrants are North Korea and Iran—in other words, the usual suspects. And now Syria. The news about the desert nuclear plant came as a great shock to the IAEA. “What the Israelis did was a violation of international law. If the Israelis and the Americans had information about an illegal nuclear facility, they should have notified us immediately,” said the then IAEA Director-General Mohd ElBaradei, who only learned of the dramatic incident from media reports. “When everything was over, we were supposed to head out and search for evidence in the rubble—a virtually impossible task”. But he had underestimated his inspectors. In June 2008, a team of IAEA experts visited the destroyed Al Kibar plant. The Syrians had given in to pressure from the weapons inspectors, but they had also done everything possible to dispose of the evidence first. They removed all the debris from the bombed facility and paved over the entire site with concrete. They told the inspectors that it had been a conventional weapons factory, and not a nuclear reactor, which they would have been required to report to the IAEA. They also insisted that foreigners had not been involved. The IAEA experts painstakingly collected soil samples, and used special wipes to remove minute traces of material from furnishings or pipes still on the site. The samples were sent to the IAEA’s special laboratories in Seibersdorf, a town near Vienna, where they were subjected to ultra-sensitive isotope analyses capable of determining whether samples had come into contact with suspicious uranium. And indeed, the analysis produced some very alarming findings. In its report, the IAEA describes “a significant number of anthropogenic natural uranium particles (i.e. produced as a result of chemical processing)”, which were “of a type not included in Syria’s declared inventory of nuclear material”. The Syrian authorities claimed that the uranium was introduced by the Israeli bombing, something that the IAEA said was of ‘low probability’. In its report released in June 2009, the IAEA demanded, in no uncertain terms, that Damascus grant it permission for another series of inspections, this time with access to “three other locations” that may have been related to Al Kibar. “The characteristics of the complex, including the cooling water capacities, bear a strong similarity to those of a nuclear reactor, something which urgently requires clarification,” said one IAEA expert. In the cautious language of UN officials, this is practically a guilty verdict. “Syria is not giving us the transparency we require,” ElBaradei had then said angrily. A picture hanging in his office seemed to reflect his mood. It is a print of ‘The Scream’ by the Norwegian painter Edvard Munch, which depicts a deeply distraught person. ElBaradei did not believe that he was too lenient with those suspected of illegally pursuing nuclear weapons programmes, as the Bush administration repeatedly claimed, particularly in relation to Iran. The IAEA, he said, will probably receive permission for a new inspection trip to Syria. Or at least he hoped it will. If and when that happens, a different host will greet the UN team. The affable Brig Gen Mohammed Suleiman, an Assad confidant in charge of all manner of sensitive security issues, was formerly in charge of presiding over the inspections. However he was assassinated in 2008. He landed in the crosshairs of his pursuers, just like Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyah. For the Israelis, Mughniyah was the epitome of terror, the most notorious terrorist mastermind in the Middle East. He was responsible for the bloody attack on US military headquarters in Beirut in the 1980s and on Jewish institutions in Argentina in the 1990s, attacks in which hundreds of innocent people had died. He is regarded by some as the inventor of the suicide attack and was deeply rooted in Iranian power structures. The MOSSAD had information that Mughniyah was planning to avenge the air-strike on Al Kibar with an attack on an Israeli Embassy--either in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, Cairo or the Jordanian capital Amman.

Damascus, the building complex of the Atomic Energy Commission of Syria in the city’s Kafar Soussa diplomatic quarter, February 2008. Visitors are not welcome. ‘Please contact post office box 6091,’ says the guard at the entrance. There is also an e-mail address (atomic@aec.org.sy). But inquiries sent to both addresses remain unanswered. No wonder, say experts, who speculate that the threads of a secret nuclear weapons programme come together in the inconspicuous AECS complex. It was precisely on the street where the AECS complex is located that Imad Mughniyah, a.k.a. ‘The Fox’, had parked his Mitsubishi Pajero on February 12, 2008 while he attended a reception at the nearby Iranian Embassy. It was a rare appearance by a man who normally avoided being seen in public. But on that evening Mughniyah knew that he would be among friends, including Hamas leader Khaled Mashal and Syrian Gen Mohammed Suleiman, whom he had met many times in Teheran and at Hezbollah centres in Lebanon. Shortly after 10:30pm, Mughniyah drank his last glass of freshly squeezed orange juice. Then he kissed the host, the newly installed Iranian diplomat Ahmed Mousavi, on both cheeks, as local custom dictates, and left the party. Mughniyah was “probably the most intelligent, most capable operative we’ve ever run across,” said former CIA agent Robert Baer, who had been tracking him for a long time. The terrorist knew that he was at the very top of the MOSSAD’s hit-list, and he also knew that the FBI was offering a $5 million reward for information leading to his arrest. But he felt relatively safe in Syria, as he did in Beirut and Teheran, which he visited on a regular basis. The explosion completely destroyed the SUV and ripped apart Mughniyah’s body. He was killed instantly. But the explosive charge was apparently calculated so carefully that nearby buildings were barely harmed. The terrorist leader remained the only victim on that night in Damascus. Whoever committed the act, “the world is a better place without this man,” the US announced the next day through State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. Hezbollah, which had no doubts as to who was responsible for the killing, called Mughniyah a ‘martyr’ and vowed to retaliate against the ‘Zionists’. The Israeli government neither confirmed nor denied any involvement in the assassination. But agents at the MOSSAD could hardly contain their delight. According to information leaked to intelligence expert Uzi Mahnaimi, Israeli agents had removed the driver’s seat headrest and filled it with a compound that would detonate on contact. Intelligence expert Ronen Bergman can even describe the reaction of Israelis who were involved. “It was a shame about that nice new Pajero,” one of them reportedly said.

Tartous, a medieval stronghold of the Knights Templar on the Syrian Mediterranean coast, five months later. It was at this port city, 160km northwest of Damascus, that the mysterious freighter Hamed had once berthed with its supposed cargo of cement from North Korea. Here, on a beach 13km north of the medieval city walls, Gen Suleiman had a weekend house, not far from the Rimal al-Zahabiya luxury beach resort. In the summer, Suleiman travelled to his weekend house almost every Friday to review files, relax and swim. On this first August weekend in 2008, President Assad’s eminence grise must have taken along a particularly large number of documents. A few days later, he had planned to accompany Assad on a secret visit to Teheran. As always, Suleiman drove from Damascus to Tartous in an armoured vehicle. Additional bodyguards were waiting for him at his chalet. They never let him out of their sight, even escorting him into the water when he went swimming. After Mughniyah’s murder on a busy Damascus street, security was at the highest possible level. The General, who interacted with the global community as the regime’s senior representative on nuclear issues, was considered particularly at risk. The sea was calm that morning. Yachts were cruising off the coast, and there was nothing to raise suspicions in Tartous, a popular sailing destination for Syria’s moneyed aristocracy where boats can be chartered for visits to nearby Arwad Island and its fish restaurants. An unusually sleek yacht came within 50 metres of the coast, but it was not close enough to raise any red flags with the bodyguards when their boss decided to jump into the sea. No one even heard the gunshots, which were probably fired from precision rifles equipped with silencers. But they clearly came from offshore, striking Sulaiman in the head, chest and neck. The General died before his bodyguards could do anything for him. The yacht carrying the snipers turned away and disappeared into international waters. The Syrian authorities kept the news of the murder from the public for days. After that, it issued terse statements about the ‘vicious crime’. According to the official account, the General was “found shot dead near Tartous”. There was no mention of a yacht or of the angle from which the shots were fired. Speculation was rife in Damascus. Diplomats assumed that Suleiman had become too powerful for his fellow cabinet members, and that his killing was evidence of an internal Syrian power struggle. According to Western critics of the Syrian President, Suleiman had become a burden for Assad after the debacle involving the bombed nuclear plant and the Mughniyah murder, and he was eliminated on orders from Assad. For experts, however, the most likely scenario is that the Israelis were behind the highly professional assassination. Suleiman, who was nicknamed ‘the imported General’ because of his European appearance, was buried in a private ceremony in his native village of Draykish two days after his murder. President Assad sent his younger brother Maher to attend the secret funeral, while he himself embarked on his scheduled trip to Teheran. It was important for him to put on a show of self-control, no matter how distressed he may have felt. Can bomb attacks and hit-squads against real or presumed terrorists bring about progress in the Middle East? Is it true that Arabs and Israelis only understand the language of violence, as many in Tel Aviv are now saying? Did the operation against the Al Kibar complex, which violated international law, bring the Syrian President to his senses, or did it merely encourage him to harden his position? And what does all this mean for a possible Iranian nuclear bomb?

Consequences of Operation Orchard
“The facility that was bombed was not a nuclear plant, but rather a conventional military installation,” Syrian President Bashar Assad insisted in mid-January 2009. “We could have struck back. But should we really allow ourselves to be provoked into a war? Then we would have walked into an Israeli trap”. What about the traces of uranium? “Perhaps the Israelis dropped it from the air to make us the target of precisely these suspicions”. Damascus, he said, is not interested in becoming a nuclear power, nor does it believe that Teheran is developing the bomb. “Syria is fundamentally opposed to the proliferation of nuclear weapons. We want a nuclear-free Middle East, Israel included”. Assad, outraged over Israeli belligerence in the Gaza Strip, had suspended secret peace talks with the enemy, which had been brokered by Turkey. But it was also abundantly clear that Assad was eager to remove himself from the list of global political pariahs and enter into dialogue with the US and Europe. In the autumn of 2009, relations between Damascus and the West seemed to be on the mend, probably as the result of US concessions rather than Israeli bombs. French President Nicolas Sarkozy received Assad at the Elysée Palace and told him that the normalisation of relations would depend on the Syrians meeting a provocatively worded condition: “End nuclear weapons cooperation with Iran”. In the first week of October, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad travelled to Washington to meet with his counterparts there. And Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, with Washington's explicit blessing, went to Damascus in an attempt to make a shift to the moderate camp more palatable for Assad. The prospect of billions in aid, as well as transfers of high technology, was being held out to Assad. The Syrian President then knew that this was probably his only hope to revive his ailing economy in the long term. Relations between Damascus and Teheran had worsened considerably in recent weeks. Western intelligence agencies reported that the Iranian leadership was demanding that Syria return—in full and without compensation—substantial shipments of uranium, which it no longer needed now that its nuclear programme had been destroyed. Assad subsequently considered taking a sensational political step. He is believed to have suggested to contacts in Pyongyang that he was considering the disclosure of his ‘national’ nuclear programme, but without divulging any details of cooperation with his North Korean and Iranian partners. Libyan revolutionary leader Moammar Gadhafi had reaped considerable benefits from the international community after a similar ‘confession’ about his country’s covert cnuclear programme. The reaction from North Korea was swift and extremely harsh: Pyongyang sent a senior government representative to Damascus to inform Syrian authorities that the North Koreans would terminate all cooperation on chemical weapons if Assad proceeded with his plan. And this regardless whether he mentioned Pyongyang in this context or not. Teheran’s reaction is believed to have been even more severe. Saeed Jalili, the country’s then leading nuclear negotiator and a close associate of Iran’s supreme religious leader, apparently brought along an urgent message from the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in which Khamenei called Assad’s plan ‘unacceptable’ and threatened that it would spell the end of the two countries’ strategic alliance and a sharp decline in relations. According to intelligence sources, Assad backed down. However he was also looking for ways to do business with his enemies, even Israel’s hard-line Prime Ninister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Nevertheless, Assad is loath to give up his contacts to Hezbollah and Teheran completely, and he will demand a very high price for the possible recognition of Israel and for playing the role of mediator with Teheran, namely the return of the entire Golan Heights.

Did Operation Orchard make an impression on the Iranians, and did they understand it the way it was probably intended by the Israelis: as a final warning to Teheran? The Iranians have—literally--entrenched themselves, and not only since the Israeli attack on Syria. Many of the centrifuges they use for uranium enrichment are now operating in underground tunnels. Not even the bunker-busting super-bombs the Pentagon has requested be made available soon, citing “urgent operational requirements,” are capable of fully destroying facilities like the one in Natanz. The US--or the Israelis--would have to conduct air-strikes for several weeks and destroy more than a dozen known nuclear facilities to set back the Iranian nuclear programme by more than a few weeks. It would be a far more complex undertaking than the Israelis’ past attacks on the Osirak reactor in Iraq and Syria's Al Kibar nuclear plant. And even after such a comprehensive operation, which would expose them to counterattacks, they could not be entirely sure of having wiped out all key elements of the Iranian nuclear programme. In September 2008, Teheran surprised the world with the confession that it had built a previously unreported uranium enrichment plant near Qom. Operation Orchard achieved only one thing: If the Iranians had planned to build a ‘spare’ nuclear plant in Syria, that is, a back-up plutonium factory, their plans were thwarted. But Teheran has time on its side. The Iranians are already believed to have reached breakout capacity--in other words, the ability to begin building a nuclear weapon if they so desire. Iran is on the verge of becoming a nuclear power. And Syria? There is nothing to suggest that Damascus will or is even able to play with fire once again. A conventional factory has in fact been built over the ruins of the Al Kibar plant. There is no access to the plant--for security reasons, as residents of Deir el-Zor say tersely--at the roadblock near the great river and the desert village of Tibnah. The turquoise-coloured river flows slowly, the river that Moses, according to the Bible, promised to the Israelites as part of their holy land. To this day, many radical Israelis take the relevant passage in the Bible as seriously as an entry in the land register: “Every place that your foot shall tread upon shall be yours. From the desert, and from Libanus, from the great river Euphrates unto the western sea.” Referring to the same river, the Prophet Muhammad is supposed to have said: “The Euphrates reveals the treasures within itself. Whoever sees it should not take anything from it.”


Documentary on OP ORCHARD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GfdH9AzAXE

IDF-AF Footage Of Air-Strikes Released Yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-vhiHbKm4I




Data On Al Kibar Nuclear Facility:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ah6RmcewUM



153 comments:

Anonymous said...

PrasunDa,

Can you please upload details/post on Operation Sea Scuttle too. Thanks!

Shantylal

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

http://idrw.org/chinese-unmanned-tanks-pose-a-new-threat-for-indian-armys-defences/

New Unmanned Tanks in china town. Is it a threat for Indian defense.
Yes we know UAV has changed the equation in today's warfare.
Can you throw some light how this unmanned tanks will change the future war.

Thanks
S. Senthil Kumar

Rahul said...

Sir ; I have a Question regarding J 20

In the Eighties ; IAF was so Worried about the F 16 that it Bought
Both Mirage 2000 and Mig 29
Immediately without Bothering whether they have a certain feature or Not

And Today though there is a Rising threat From Both Pakistan and China
We are going about in an easy manner

We took so long to conclude Rafale deal ; we will have 36 Rafales till 2022

And also we are Rejecting PAK FA

So can the Su 30 take care of our needs till 2025

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Wonderful and very educative. Does this mean that Iran is unofficially a nuclear weapons state??

If yes then the prophecy in Bible may indeed prove to be true. What if Iran starts arming Hezbollah with nuclear weapons. World War III?

Arun said...

Dear sir Please read this News and Give your Views and Opinion


https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/295569-pakistan-acquires-powerful-tracking-system-from-china-for-missile-programme-report

Pakistan acquires powerful missile tracking system from China: report

AMIT BISWAS said...

" Can you please upload details/post on Operation Sea Scuttle too. Thanks!

Shantylal "

Agree with u buddy,

prasunda u have promised to upload op sea scuttle slides ....but yet havent ..
BTW why HAL IPO wasn't hit??? at last LIC had to bail it out

Savita Sharma said...

The Brahmos missile has a seeker from Astra? Was it an anti ship missile? (Tested on land)

Sudhir Mishra has twitted this ....BrahMos flight test on 22nd Mar included indigenously designed and manufactured anti-ship seeker, first time in the country.....

What would be its further potential uses?

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Are the optical tracking systems China sold Pakistan superior to MOTR type radars for the purpose of MIRV testing ?

2) Do we possess similar optical tracking systems ?

3) Will GoI ensure that we possess nuclear superiority vis a vis Pak and credible deterrence vis a vis PRC? Or will minimality be emphasized ?

4) What about the road construction in Dolam east of the original faceoff site towards Jampheri ridge ? How will this threat to the Siliguri corridor be countered ?

Satyaki

Rajesh Mishra said...

... The sixth angel poured his bowl... and then the four angels of war who have been chained at the waters of the Euphrates will become free to partake in the war..... Then the Kings from the East..

AJS Chirp said...

With the changes in the US State Dept, and NSA position, it looks like the US will be focusing more on Iran now. With the Saudis and UAE probably encouraging action against Iran, it appears Pakistan will get an opportunity to win US's favor. With that goes any window India has to do anything meaningful against Pakistan. Any insight on what Doval is hoping to accomplish by meeting with Sec Def?

Pierre Zorin said...

Ved here is an interesting link for you: http://www.cslewisinstitute.org/webfm_send/410

Pierre Zorin said...

Yet another link for you Ved
https://www.ucg.org/bible-study-tools/booklets/you-can-understand-bible-prophecy/history-proves-the-accuracy-of-bible

financeblogger said...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/centre-clears-plans-for-iaf-base-close-to-pakistan-border-in-gujarat/story-Y8L4AsvhZceQFNnWr3l5oM.html


Request you to explain with regards on the above article.

Anonymous said...

Pakistanis are have been upgrading their test facilities. When you are creating new systems, one needs to be able to measure them and their performance to improve or compare. They are going about this in a systematic manner. What will be the output from these?

I think one thing is obvious, they have a greater desire to make their own systems, it ensure their smaller budget goes further. Whereas we want the world best and are happy to pay through the nose for it.

Wonder what John Bolton thinks of pakistan? The neo-cons generally are more friendly to them. I guess crazy's recognise each other. Bolton's advice to Trump, in his article for the wall street journal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-danger-of-a-jihadist-pakistan-1503960880


Chada

AMIT BISWAS said...

prasun sir i have a peculiar question for u---

i want to know about the flight paths of IAF/IA aircrafts from mainland to northeast ---is it via bangladesh airspace or they follow the siliguri corridor for entering assam and further into northeast???

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Hardware displayed at today's Pakistan Day Parade:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rwy99gpDes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOBCQSFqTbY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gAdupaL_G0

The complete parade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_2z2Q1kRLg

Indian Submariners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy7nFgu9KKg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duu9IAZcLQo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOTziXmxX5o

Unknown said...

How will you deploy these tanks in mountainous terrain of Himalayas....Most of the flat passes where these tanks can be deployed are already covered by indian T72 tanks and do you think that these remote controlled machinese will be more effective than our manned T72? The most funny part is that the writer is saying that in next war with China waved of these tanks may overrun indian posts like Chinese soldiers did in 1962.

Anik said...

Pradun da, According to the latest satellite imagery of Dolam AREA the Chinese have massive presence there. Shelters for armoured vehicles, trenches and bunkers are clearly visible. Also the Chinese have overrun complete Bhutanese AREA and are almost at indian border.According to some news reports Xi has taken direct control of their army deployed near indian border. Do you think Chinese will go for a limited skirmish this year?

Pratap said...

Prasun da, Pakistan's forex reserves stand at minus 700 million dollars. Looks like Pakistan is nearing total economic collapse. The moment for IA to do the needful is approaching fast hope they are prepared.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To CHADA: You seem to be high on steroids when ever uou are over-estimating the capacities & capabilities of Pakistan. Alright then, allow me to feed you some more steroids. Here they are:

Sindh Rangers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_ufeTBwRg0&t=31s

ISPR Song on Pakistan Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euVogfXKn8w

PN Song on Pakistan Day:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IowIhCjMzEA

PAF Song on Pakistan Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWfA2pTTelA&t=61s

PAF CAS Flies F-16: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN-_utios4Y

Latest report from Gwadar Port: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yon1Fnn-8lY

Pictures of yesterday’s parade:

https://www.dawn.com/news/1397074/pakistan-exhibits-military-might-on-republic-day

Alright, now brace yourself for a crash-landing & hard impact:

Latest IMF Report on Pakistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1w7Q_rYeSY

Orya Maqbool Jan Banned from Entering the US: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwZWM-Z1vUQ (this is the very guy who always glorifies the con cept of Ghazwa-e-Hind).

Latest Ground Report from Umerkot, Sindh, where Emperor Akbar The Great grew & which is also the ancestral home of the Bhutto Dynasty:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XW8Xf8hFg4

As to what John Bolton thinks about Pakistan, the answer lies in the displays of the SPD in yesterday’s parade, i.e. the Ghauri-1 IRBM was MISSING. So, to me the Bolton effect is already beginning to show results! Lastly, optronic tracking sensors of the type delivered to Pakistan by China have been in India since the mid-1980s & they are of Swiss & German origin. But such sensors are INCAPABLE of plotting the trajectories of inbound MIRVs. The laws of physics therefore demand that precision tracking radars (active phased-array type) be used for such purposes.

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: LoLz! Does the photo show a fully-armed battle tank? Or does it show only the hull of the tank that’s fitted with wireless santennae? If it is the latter, then where exactly is the threat emanating from? Why are you ASSUMING that China can now field armed MBTs? FYI those remotely-controlled vehicles onl;y use the hull of the Type-59 tank & their turrets containing ice-/-snow-removing equipment, firefighting equipment, and mine-trawl attachments. This is something that has already been achieved in India way back in 2012, i.e. the MUNTRA technology demonstration.

capri4791 said...

Prasun,

1 Any new updates on Arjun mk2 [weight reduction, indegenious 120mm smooth bore main gun etc]. Will it be a reality ever? reference:-https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018/03/army-sits-on-arjun-tank-order-over-missile-firing-capability.html.
2 Can Arjun being refitted with a 125mm or 130mm [rhienmettal has designed one recently says 50% more effective than 125mm gun] @ a later date.
3 U had mentioned that there will be no P75I in one of your replies? what will it be then? more scorpenes? does it make sense to opt for the shortfin Barraccuda 1a like the aussies?
5 how does boeing KC 46 A suit IAF's tanker requirements? Also there was a plan for upgrading existing IL76/78 to MD90A stds.. any progress on that?
6 What could be the reason as to why the Fin Min is so shy of increasing defence budget..is the govt convined that there is no threat from china or the deluded pakis?

capri4791 said...

Hi Prasun,

-Recently OFB upgraded 130mm gun to 155 mm a cost of @1Cr. Will it eat into dhanush or the new 155mm atag?

- there were some news of the new atags being heavy @18T wheras it was touted to be @12T.. what is the truth & if heavy is there any impact on their induction?

Pierre Zorin said...

Forget weapons, what India needs first is a world class intelligence and counter espionage of the type of Mossad. I can't understand all this stupid Research and Technical terms instead of simple Indian Security and Intelligence Organisation or Military and Security Intelligence. Not just the name but there is an urgent need to develop intelligence capabilities and the prowess to hit outside India. A strong and effective intelligence can win a war before it even starts.

Anik said...

Prasun da,
These type of voices ( https://www.dailyo.in/politics/dravida-nadu-dmk-stalin-siddaramaiah-tamil-nadu-karnataka-hindi-imposition-north-south/story/1/23040.html ) are getting louder and louder everyday. First the Karnataka TDP MP and now Stalin. Siddaramaiah is also making some unnecessary moves. Your take?

ashish gautam said...

Sir, The news provided in the following link is trustworthy or not??
Are our "generals" being paid by Americans for this? Or is it due to modi's love for America?
http://avia.pro/news/vvs-indii-su-57-ustupaet-amerikanskim-istrebitelyam-pochti-vo-vsyom?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

MoD has released the DRAFT for Defence Production

http://makeinindiadefence.gov.in/Defence%20Production%20Policy%202018.pdf

Since your views have always been sought by MoD, DPSUs, what are the suggestions that you will provide regarding this Draft policy ?

Thanks & Regards,

VIKRAM

Rajesh Mishra said...

Stalin is not Stalin, he should be forgotten. All the likes of Siddharahmaniya and Stalin are getting their able guidance from Pappuji.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Lol, why they trying to copy arabic accent over urdu in PN song.

buddha said...

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/pakistan/huge-blow-to-islamabads-nsg-ambitions-as-us-sanctions-7-pakistani-firms-for-nuclear-proliferation/articleshow/63461660.cms
Blow is coming thick and fast.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

In the link below, statement saying Arjun mk2 @ 67T is acceptable to the army has been attributed to DRDO chief. How did the army do a u-turn after all these years ? or is it fake news

http://idrw.org/arjun-mark-2-tank-set-to-see-light-of-day/

rad said...

hi prasun
how did russia allow us to put our seeker on the brahmos missile ?
i was given to understand that the seeker and engine was to be supplied to them as per contract .Will we trying to engineer the ramjet engine as well? at least slyly??

in what stage is the rf seeker for the nag in? the last we heard was of a successful test and nothing after that.

why arent we acting tough to china regarding the balance of payment issue unlike the

americans??

Ram Bharadwaj said...

Prasun

Do you have any updates on the progress of the MK1A? When will the 1st prototype emerge? Will it also undergo the rigorous IOC and FOC?

http://idrw.org/design-of-tejas-next-version-almost-done-aesa-radar-next-month/

Anonymous said...

Sir, what you feel do you think the deal will go on.

"Opposition in Seychelles says it won't support military base deal with India"
Link: http://m.seychellesnewsagency.com//articles/8864/Opposition+in+Seychelles+says+it+won%27t+support+military+base+deal+with+India

Anna

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your answer regarding Unmanned China Tanks

Coming war With Iran

Mike Pompeo a New Foreign Minister and John Bolton New NSA. Both the guys are Hardliner. Now Saudi Crown Prince in US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_M2R64pgJQ

So War Drum started hearing in Gulf with Iran. Already Russia and West fighting with Diplomats issues.

1. Now India is in which Camp. US/Israel/KSA Camp or Russia/China/Iran Camp.
2. Long time India cant sit in the fence need to take Hard Decision.

What is your opinion regarding Iran War and Indian Position.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Rajesh Mishra said...

India will be in the winning camp.

ashish gautam said...

What's your opinion about this comparison made by this professor about LCA & JF17. Though he is not military man so he has done all that stuff based on net data & his own knowledge of aeronautics etc.
Kindly have a look & tell ur views about it...
http://profprodyutdas.blogspot.in/2018/01/ugly-duckling-swan-or-hunt-bird-in-hand.html?m=1

buddha said...

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/time-for-nda-government-to-pack-up-and-go-mamata-banerjee/articleshow/63493424.cms
What do u think .Can she unite all opposition leaders under one umbrella to defeat bjp....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANNA: Don’t worry about it. Time will sort matters out.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: Here is the update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2cKOJXtfAE

The RFQ was recently submitted, meaning only a price offering was made by HAL. Now if the flight-tests of the Mk.1A are successful, only then will a production contract be inked.

To SAVITA SHARMA & RAD: This was the seeker tested on the BrahMos-1:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jItpKvRvrvM/UzccszvAsuI/AAAAAAAAG_o/KQL0BcSm9MQ/s1600/Seeker+for+BrahMos-1+(left)+&+LRCM.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-znDKXpA45Yw/Uzcc2OpGppI/AAAAAAAAG_w/FPUjkBM3dRs/s1600/Seeker+for+BrahMos-1-1.JPG

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1pRMIRQnkxM/UzcdHqxq7kI/AAAAAAAAG_4/1KAjLLpKF9g/s1600/Seeker+for+BrahMos-1-2.JPG

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-OTdjh_WGGVo/UzceiE4MztI/AAAAAAAAHAQ/3736OQvMAVw/s1600/Microstrip+Patch-Array+Antenna+for+Nirbhay+Multi-Role+Cruise+Missile.jpg

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-g1Bfn6ERhtw/Vv8IrQ_nOEI/AAAAAAAAKgo/94C_zl42FTUmyupPGe3YMXbqMmPk1Lb3w/s1600/DRDO-ECIL-developed%2BIMR%2Bseeker.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VddP_V7w90c/Vv8IttW6oSI/AAAAAAAAKgs/Obk6Bo28azY4V-3wcPDTOlyTAegmyFsIg/s1600/DRDO-DATA%2BPatterns-developed%2BIMR%2Bseeker%2Bfor%2BBrahMos-NG%2B%2526%2BNirbhay%2BLACM.jpg

The same IMR seeker is also meant for use by the Nirbhay LACM’s ALCM & SLCM variants.

And this is the VEM Technologies-fabricated & DRDL-developed seeker for Astra-1 BVRAAM:

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/K25GFuN_QmA/WKtQK1PojUI/AAAAAAAAMe4/_zkrAPrFcnQGXmC5deCax2h5NdjwSJzKACLcB/s1600/Astra%2BMk.1%2B%2526%2BKu-band%2Bactive%2Bseeker.jpg

To BUDDHA: That has come about due to revelations from this case:

https://www.justice.gov/usao-ct/pr/connecticut-business-owners-admit-profiting-unlawful-exports-pakistan

To ARPIT KANODIA: LoLz! And this was to be the ultimate insult for Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZC9CKJl3Lk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R0u9bIvPUQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxNiX1b3scY

One then has to wonder as to what exactly is the role & responsibility of the Pak PM within the National Nuclear Command Authority, if he can wonder around on such ‘private visits’ abroad!!!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: WhAAAAAAAAT!!! You really want to drive me out of business, don’t you? And that too after I have spent decades creating & nurturing the Directorate of Clandestine Services (DCS)—a one-man show in which your’s truly is the sole proprietor, sole owner, sole member & sole operator! That apart, my principal role (not just within the DCS, but also in this blog) is one of a praetorian guard, i.e. the guard who is entrusted with theonerous task of guarding the guardians. You may well recall this question: Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? It is a Latin phrase found in the works of the Roman poet Juvenal from his Satires (Satire VI, lines 347–348), which is literally translated as "Who will guard the guardians themselves?"

Meanwhile, as an afterthought, don’t you reckon that instead of celebrating various festivals—a phenomenon that causes communal clashes every now & then in India, it is far better to opt for better options, such as celebrating festivals like Japan’s Honen Matsuri Fertility Festival, on which a general consensus across all faiths can be arrived at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MchE-QLTnkI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dgSwn0P3fE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pupfdd2op2I

To CAPRI4791: You m,ust be referring to this article:

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/the-big-story/story/20180305-bang-for-the-buck-make-in-india-military-hardware-1176002-2018-02-22

If the ATAGS indeed weighs 18 tonnes or 20 tonnes, then one thing is clear: it is an over-engineered product, since the adoption of all-electric drives instead of electro-hydraulic ones should have definitely reduced weight. On top of that the APU section has 4 roadwheels (two non each side), while most other competitors have only 2. Both the ATHOS & TRAJAN towed 155mm/52-cal howitzers weigh no more than 13 tonnes—a clear indication of superior product engineering.

ATHOS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9SQhKFhUfM

Trajan & Caesar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xy-pmC0qI_A

Hence, the IA is most likely to go for direct import of 480 TRAJANs from France’s Nexter Group. Ther ATAGS’ definitive version is unlikely to be available before 2023, several more tests are reqd to be done in order to arrive at a definitive design iteration.

To VIKRAM GUHA: All that I can say at this stage is that the Draft Document is the clearest indication that the MoD has neither applied sound common sense nor logical reasoning while srafting such a document. All it has done is put the cart before the horse.

Pierre Zorin said...

I have never heard a South Indian speak Hindi so well. (Except those living in the North)

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Prasun da,

I think your words regarding Durand line are starting to shape

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0N5Bna14sn0

bhoutik said...

about the Honen Matsuri Fertility Festival -

* i am curious as to whether it has indic roots - seems so familiar, reminds me of the shiva lingam, the offering of fruits, all that

* leave it to the british to try and bring down such a beautiful and amazing festival, such snarky bastards, there's something culturally wrong with these retards, pathetic creatures all of 'em. britain is to europe what saudis are to west asia

sorry for he rant

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.nti.org/learn/facilities/461/

https://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2008/02/05/a-strike-in-the-dark-what-did-israel-bomb-in-syria-by-seymour-m-hersh/

https://www.globalresearch.ca/setting-the-record-straight-on-israels-2007-bombing-of-an-alleged-syrian-nuclear-reactor/5633068

Thanks for your detailed report about Syrian Nuclear Facility bombing.

This bombing of Syrian Nuclear Facility story was first broken by Seymour M. Hersh (The New Yorker)in 2008. Now it is getting confirmed.

Entire middle east war is based on Israel Palestine issues. Fifty years before all Arabs are united against Israel. After 1967 & 1973 war with Israel, Arab countries came to conclusion that they cant win a war against Israel because of US support. Slowly Arabs lost interest on Palestine issue and they start fight against themselves. Israel enemies Saddam, Gattafi are removed from power. Egypt surrendered. Only left is Syrian Assad and Iran. Now GREATER ISRAEL project is going on with construction of Jewish Third Temple. Next war is against Iran.

After Iran war over their next target will be Saudi Arabia. US+Israel will split Saudi into tiny countries. Let us wait and watch.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear PIERRE ZORIN,

THE REAL MOSES and the fake exodus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbIcMcT_abY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EATSlwYFzTU&t=136s

Jesus Christ was Black
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwL4CGf7PDU&t=29s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DKmTr5ntU8

Please comment.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Rajiv M said...

http://www.janes.com/article/78911/china-to-upgrade-radar-of-pakistan-s-jf-17-fighter-aircraft


Parthasarathi said...

@ Mr. Ashis Gautam.

Sir,
I have read Prof. Prodyut Das's article on JF 17 and I am quite agreeing with him. The is a age old lesson in military circle that "never fight your enemies fight". Unfortunately our designers are not aware of this age old proverb.
They made a plane ( not fighter ) which is jack of all trades. It can bomb a bit, it can dog fight a bit and has very limited BVR capability ( doubt if any !). Definitely she is not a sitting duck in front of JF 17 but she has to dog fight with Pakistani or Turkish F 16 (Pakistan wont send JF 17 inside India, unless it's absolutely necessary and Tejas can't venture outside India) or Chinese J 10 B or J 11 C/D. Now the catch is whether Tejas will survive ? Sorry to write probably it wont !
Now let us come to the next situation, if Tejas is asked to bomb Karachi then can she do it ? ( even taking off from Naliya) Your guess is as good of mine. Yes, Tejas is suppose to replace Mig 21s which is stationed at Naliya.
BVR capability : Astra's integration is years away. Though do not know too much about Derby 3. Firing a BVR missile and guiding it to target which is constantly manoeuvring, are two different ball games.
So at the end what should we do !
Let's us improve her BVR capability ! We should give her the best AESA radar possible together with a Meteror or Meteor equivalent missile. Let her be a BVR fighter only. She is small in size to probably RCS area will be less. She will be dificult to detect at long distance. If needed her bomb bay can be converted to fuel tanks for greater range. Let Jaguar/Rafale do the bombing.
Regards.

rad said...

hi prasun
how true is the janes report that the jf-17 is going to get a aesa radar according to janes , when the chines have not deployed the on their front line j-10 fighters?

and again cristopher says the desi local aesa radar will start undergoing tests n a couple f months?

Pierre Zorin said...

Senthil Kumar
There is nothing to comment. One group of people with very limited information exaggerates and tries to disprove the truth. There are thousands of historical records that speak otherwise.Many evidence is available from non-Christians in fact most of the evidence is non-Christian. You can watch a video by the BBC Son of God where the people of the time were recreated by computer animation based on bones. Most Middle eastern people would have been the same colour as average Indians and especially Jesus because were He easily identifiable then the Jewish rulers would not have needed to get Judas to point Him out. I believe at the end of the day no matter how much you investigate it comes down to the fact- it's a personal experience. Not one Christian in the Bible became one because they were forced to but they chose to. Jesus did not found Christianity in fact there is no such thing really. Christianity is a Western product.

Anonymous said...

I have been following the news for quite some time. It's funny that all I can see that India is losing it's influence on its neighbours. First Nepal then sri Lanka then comes Maldives and now the blocking of military base in Seychelles. It looks like we are losing in the covert and intelligence front. Why is it so? Will our external intelligence agency ever be at par with the CIA or FSB or MSS? Or is it just a pipe dream. Sorry for being negative.

Tushar

rad said...

hi prasun
it seems the drdo has a choice between the 2 radars, that ie elm-2052 and rbe-2
aesa radars for the LCA .The great advantage with the rbe-2 is the meteor missile !. though it is heavier by about only 50 kg , which is not a great thing . This will give us a tremendous advantage in stand off range .An f-16 pilot will shit his pants once he knows there is a meteor coming his way!! we can fire way before the amraam and sd-10 missiles get their target parameters .!!! leave alone launch.

I think the french know that and also that they can sell their mica missiles as well for better sales.Will either of the radar makers give us permission and codes to integrate each others missile on diff radars? what would be the best choice??? what about the codes for integration with the UTTAM radar if it ever come to fruit??

we all believe that the Israelis are very good in radars but reports suggest that the rbe-2 is better, are the Israelis holding something back??

Rajesh Mishra said...

Small Kingdoms around India are very much afraid of the lifetime King Jin of the Red Dragon. Now I can understand the longtime negative effects of our defeat in 1962.

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

1. Several sources have been reporting for the last 2 years that India is becoming a global R & D hub. Is this true ? What kind of R & D are they talking about?

2. India sold Dhruv helos to Turkey, but it seems Turkey returned them due to their poor performance. Is this news true ?

3. Turbojet engines are used in subsonic missiles and target drones, but does India have the technology to develop turbojet engines? Top of my head ,Pvt Indian companies import these engines from Europe.


Thanks & Regards,

VIKRAM

ashish gautam said...

Ok Mr parthsarthy...

Pierre Zorin said...

Tushar babu please refer to my comment a few comments above. I have always felt the Indian intelligence is her weakest point. I am not sure if it is due to apathy incompetence or fear that a powerful intelligence would be like ISI and may influence the government. I have a feeling the latter. Regardless of how much Mrs Swaraj publicly states India shapes her own foreign policy, in reality Indian foreign policy is not have a policy policy. Sometimes it is a make as you go or see what others are doing first. This causes a vacuum which opportunist nations like China jumps in and fills. There is an amazing similarity between the Indians and the Russians- for some reason neither are liked by anyone. Any alliance with these countries are purely based on commerce and strategy. The British certainly permeated through the Indian leadership because they have managed to teach wrapping everything with red tapes, wearing reading glasses instead of correcting their vision, digging a bottomless pit for files and reveling in endless inertia. Modern day Britain may have watered down these qualities a lot due to demand but in India time still stands as in 1947. Sectarianism from time to time, fake religiosity before national interests, divide and rule and profit before people - these are relics from the British Colonial past that still works beautifully keeping an aspiring super power forever aspiring and never nearing. It's like a safety relief valve built in- as soon as all India gets together the old Colonial trap leaks all the energy and sends the nation bak to square one.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: All the Professor’s conclusions are based purely on the laws of physics & mathematics & therefore cannot be faulted. Only those internet fanboys who have utter disdsain for the natural sciences & mathematics & who instead choose to revel only in aerobatic demonstrations put up by combat aircraft during air shows will bother to waste their time & display their idiocracy by questioning the Professor’s conclusions.

To RAD: LoLz! If indeed the KLJ-7A AESA-MMR is ready for service-induction, then how come the PLAAF & PLAN are not inducting such radars into service on board their own frontline MRCAs? Why does the J-10B use imported Phazotron Rp-35 Zemchoug PESA-MMR? Why have the Su-27SKs & Su-27UBKs & J-11s acquired since the early 1990s not yet been retrofitted with the KLJ-7A? Why is then China now flight-testing a home-grown PESA-MMR on board a Y-14 airborne turboprop testbed? So do rest assured that China is at least a decade away from introducing home-grown AESA-MMRs into service.

As for news-reports from Janes or other publications produced by UK-based/US-based Caucasians, they are nowhere near to the treuth most of the times, as evidenced by one of them recently stating in a blog (https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018/03/eyeonindia-10-questions-for-flightglobals-stephen-trimble.html)that it is HAL that is developing the Tejas Mki.1 MRCA!!!

Meanwhile, watch this interview of the RM conducted by TWO IDIOTS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPJLPxTDlI0

What will Gen-6 MRCAs be like:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPZpp_Y6Er8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ub0UbhDGDE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldFWBdVnuFU

OP Hot Pursuit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFAFxAXmwT4

As of now, for the Tejas Mk.1A, the IAF has specified the Derby BVRAAM & AIM-132 ASRAAM. Whether this combination will suit the RBE-2 AESA-MMR remains to be seen. It is possible, but is prohibitively expensive if OEMs are reqd to part with their IPRs concerning source-code interfaces. Nor should you ASSUME that a BVRAAM is always fired out to its maximum envelope. During the Cold War, there were eight conflicts in which operational air-to-air missiles were used, accounting for 407 known missile kills (radar-guided missiles plus heat-seeking missiles): Formosa Straits (1958), Vietnam/Rolling Thunder (1965-1968), Vietnam/Linebacker (1971-1973), Six Day War (1967), India-Pakistan (1971), Yom Kippur War (1973), Falklands (1982), and Bekáa Valley (1982). Only four of these conflicts saw any use of radar-guided missiles designed to achieve BVR kills: Vietnam/Rolling Thunder (1965-1968), Vietnam/Linebacker (1971-1973), Yom Kippur War (1973), and Bekáa Valley (1982). Despite the significant investment in BVR capability throughout the Cold War, radar-guided missiles only accounted for 14% of the total kills. Twice as many kills (27%) were made by guns and over four times as many (58%) were made by heat-seeking missiles. What is more disturbing about radar-guided BVRAAM performance is that the vast majority of kills (69 of 73, or 95%) were initiated and scored within visual range. There were 24 documented BVR air-to-air kills in the entire history of aerial warfare up until OP Desert Storm.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To TUSHAR: Is it confirmed that Seychelles has decided to junk the agreement with India? Or are you just assuming it to be the case? The same are your assumptions WRT Nepal & Sri Lanka. In fact, due to the implementation of GST in India, it is now far easier for Sri Lanka to integrate its economy with that of India, almost as it it is India’s 30th state. Hence, do pay more attention to what’s really going on, in stead of pandering to the whims & fancies belched out by ignorant/ill-informed analysts/journalists.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) Global R & D hub for what levels of R & D? How many path-breaking discoveries have been made by such hubs? How many such R & D teams have been nominated for the Nobel Prize? Can you find out how many N obel Prizes have been won by Indian scientists or mathematicians so far & compare that number to that emanating from Israel? 2) India has so far sold Dhruv ALHs abroad to Nepal, Ecuador, Israel & Maldives. 3) The PTAE-7 turbojet for the Lakshaya was developed & produced in-house by HAL. But those uased by the Sea Eagle ASCMs used Microturbo-supplied turbojets.

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: Jesus Christ was “Black”? Not Wheatish-complexioned or brown-skinned?

To AMIT BISWAS: Only commercial airliners can overfly Bangladesh’s airspace in transit as per ICAO regulations. In return, the Indian airlines have to pay en route navigation charges to Bangladesh’s civil aviation authority. For all Indian military aircraft, they have to stick to Indian airspace & cannot overfly Bangladesh’s or even Bhutan’s airspace.

Jyoti Sen said...

Dada So does Tejas Mk1A will sport the Rbe 2 aesa??

Arun said...

Dear Sir ;

These days the pakistanis are Boasting a lot about the JF 17

They say it has become as good as the F 16

Could you please write a Paragraph about its Capabilities
and whether it is a Threat to IAF

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Has IAF/ADA/ HAL finally shelved the Python5 originally planned for Tejas in favour of AIM132? What about R73?


buddha said...

sir the vdo of hot pursuit has been removed by the user

Anonymous said...

Sir,
Anything NEW/SIGNIFICANT in recent babur slcm test?
I found this interesting as you said previously "it is not from PN subs" DG ISPR also stated it is from "UNDERWATER DYNAMIC PLATFORM"
it appears that the tests are being done using a "specially-made system". In 2010, MBDA had built an “instrumented model” of its SCALP Naval SLCM to test-fire the missile from underwater, “replicating submarine launch conditions”.
Link- http://www.mbda-systems.com/press-releases/mbda-prepared-for-the-first-test-firing-of-scalp-naval-in-its-submarine-configuration/

1)Is pakistani system similar to this MBDA system or "different" your views?

2)Do we have anything similar? Your opinion on using similar system for testing reported brahmos-NG from torpedo tubes or it is just wishful thinking?

3) why is it shedding a sheat like thing? Is it for protecting air intake et al., underwater? Is it norm for similar systems?
Link- https://youtu.be/WY-0Kcw19Kc

Regards,
Anna

rad said...

hi prasun
taking cue from your statistics of bvraams kills then i would always prefer a long range IIR version of the astra . True bvr were let of in wvr due to blue on blue accident aversion. The the russian philosophy of msisile engagement comes into play ie letting of a IIR and a bvr missile in a salvo which will assure 100% kill.

I f rf bvraam have such a low kill rate then why is int any one taking about IIR long range bvraam, of course they have smaller acquisition range but then with data link it would be a silent killer??? what about an astra IIR ??, we can get the seeker tech from ukraine as they will sell anything for a price and as they already make the seeker for the r-73

is it not a doable missile ??

Anonymous said...

To prasun da, it actually came in a news website that the deal was thrown away. Now I seriously doubt It's authenticity. Maybe some brainless creature was writing that piece of shit.

To Pierre zorin. What? Powerful intelligence agency that too ISI? Sorry mate I completely disagree. ISI is just another terrorist organisation with a more organized structure and command. They can't even stop terror attacks happening in their own country let alone being the best. All their resources are focused towards India. That's it. Otherwise they wouldn't be able stay united this long. I am pretty much sure that country will soon break away. They can't even influence Afghanistan. As far India is concerned this government is actually taking internal intelligence very very seriously. Just look who they appointed NSA and Dy nsa and look how many bomb blasts we had after 2014. Our internal conditions are being fine tuned so that we can progress very fast economically. Now our external agency is also good. I read somewhere few years back that Germany arrested a spy working for "some" indian external intelligence agency. What's interesting here is that they are not naming raw. If you see the NSA has been directly named for their snooping scandals etc. But not Raw. It's highly likely that raw is not our external intelligence agency. It was created just for Pakistan. Somewhat like a side project. These are just my thoughts and analysis. Maybe I am day dreaming too much. Lol. But still I don't know why we don't have a tight grip over our neighbors.

Tushar

Anonymous said...

To prasun da,
Is the TSD which was mirred with controversy, up and working again? I heard that they were going to dismantle it. There were rumours that they have successfully conducted 9 covert operations. If true then it seems to be really a powerful organisation to be ever formed.
Tushar

Jay said...

DRDO developed ATAGS with private players is most likely to be the final order for that particular type of howitzer. Folks peddling imported howitzers are likely to be in for a rude shock. DRDO has started to achieve maturity in several areas in last few areas, which was unthinkable few years ago, while of course striving to keep course with the ever moving curve of new developments.

There will be many other products in coming years where DRDO will match existing international players, something which was not even possible ten years ago.

prashant said...

sir,
https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/29512344_1586282984752151_1200390887616544768_o-jpg.462331/

https://defence.pk/pdf/attachments/16904791_1439682462761866_3821194944108581691_o-jpg.462372/

in the above 2 photos indian soldiers seem to be wearing armour made locally in their units.
is this type of vests even effective in stopping 7.62 bullets ?

moreover, shouldn't bullet resistant vests have soft kevlar layer to absorb the energy of bulltets, while the plates stop the bullet itself.

AFAIK, these vests are suppose to be made of special fabric that houses the plates..what these soldiers seem have done is house the plates in fabric used to weave their uniforms.

how effective is this ?

Anik said...

Prasun Da,

Has GoI changed its China policy with arrival of new foreign Secretary?

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2139393/why-india-walking-away-its-tit-tat-china-policy

In a recent PC, Air force chief B.S. Dhanoha has said that Su30 radar can detect PLAAF J20 from kilometres away. How will you take this statement?

Pakistan yesterday tested their Babur3 missile from a submarine. Nukes on Pakistani submarine will definitely make things harder for india. Also Pakistan will start getting 8 new submarines from China. How do you think India will counter this move?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA: Then here's the olriginbal full-length version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lo97uKSEn60

To PRASHANT: They contain panels made of the Jackal alloy armnour-tiles. No onecan manufacture oir produce such alloys anywhere else except in steel production factories.

To JAY: Yes, but in exactly what kind of timeframe? The year 2030? How much time will it take to reduce the weight from 20 tonnes to 13 tonnes? The Ashok Leyland-built FAT being procured can haul a max payload of only 22 tonnes that includes 5 tonnes of ammo reload rounds & BMCS. And it was NEVER about the DRDO achieving maturity simply because the DRDO is reqd to achieve pnly design maturity, which is the easiest part because global industrial patents are easily accessible. The difficulty has always been the production engineering part, for which solutions can come only from the local industry, & not the DRDO. That's precisely why all the transmission shafts for warships like FFGs & DDGs continue to be imported from Russia because there's no forging entity in India capable of producing such long transmission shafts.

To TUSHAR: No unit by the name of TSD exists today.

To RAD: Any truly effective BVRAAM of the next generation will have to employ dual-mode seekers, i./e. AESA-based active RF seeker coupled to an IIR seeker for passive terminal homing. Just as dual-mode ATGMs are now making their foray, so will dual-mode BVRAAMs.

To ANNA: Here are the videos of the Babur SLCM launch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urIeSSYJgZI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fnPHM4_LWU

The 'shroud' is similar to those cannisters that are ejected by ASCMs like the SM-39 Exocet or C-802A or UGM-84A. The Indian Navy has had such SSK-launched LACMs since the previous decade, i.e the Novator 3M-14E Klub.

ashish gautam said...

Sir some fb pages have reported that Russia may offer 21 MiG29 to IAF for combating depleting air craft strength during DM visit to Russia.
1) Is it true?
2) If yes then which version will b offered? & how about expected price?

Pierre Zorin said...

Indians may have had it but now they are matched by the Pakistanis and I am convinced it is assembled in Pakistan after Chinese courier delivered their Russian copy. China is stepping up military supplies with latest technology just below par with China to keep up pressure on India. That might be why John Bolton is focused more on China than Pakistan because he knows get the head and the body will follow. If it weren't for China, Pakistan would have disintegrated years ago.

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

You quoted "Jesus Christ was “Black”? Not Wheatish-complexioned or brown-skinned? "

Looks like Jesus is a Black Ethiopian.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9W65rxTT4ZY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYZjYeIi0dA

Another claim as per RSS Founder "Jesus Christ was a Tamil Hindu" . He wrote a book in 1946.

Download the book here
https://www.scribd.com/doc/72478944/Jesus-Christ-Was-a-Hindu

By reading and watching most of the references, What Rome told about Jesus is not 100 percent true.

Whether Jesus is black or brown but he is not white skinned. One day truth will come out.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Anik said...

So the pakistanis have gone back to minimum credible deterrence from their earlier policy of full spectrum deterrence on nukes?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZoc9djX4AAgpFr.jpg

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

I was expecting answers r the below from previous thread, hope to get now

1. this is response to the answer you gave to SATHEAD3 with regards to his querry about the answer on AIP you gave to my question

a. i remember you saying its either speed or endurance, if speed is primary endurance is secondary and vice versa, this means AIP subs with boosted endurance means AIP subs will be very slow (if not wrong you had said it will be only 5 knots)

b. wont that make kalvaris' a virtual floating underwater ducks

c. what about the towed sonars for subs and ships, when will IN ever get them, last heard a DRDO lab was unsuccessfully working on it and imported ones are yet delayed

2. forgot to ask you, you had uploaded possibly the original docs about India Seychelles deal for assumption island, that were leaked online (my guess at dragons behest), doesnt that make you partner in crime :-) (last heard Seychelles opposition has decided to oppose the deal tooth and nail, i believe at dragons behest again)

3. i think using S400 for stopping chinese J20s is like using swords to cut onion

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/iaf-says-it-can-tackle-chinese-j-20-stealth-jets-with-s-400-missile-systems/story-3irEsafi5AXvlpQYWJtNZK.html

4. while the below news in good, my wild guess is why cant DRDO develop a MGS version of 105 mm Indian Field Gun, i think its still got lot of firepower and a MGS version can be a force multiplier

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/ofb-upgrades-130-mm-field-guns-eyes-order-from-army-118031901250_1.html

5. why the sudden belligerence from princeling who become dragon's blessed emperor

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2018/mar/20/chinese-president-xi-jinping-wont-cede-even-an-inch-of-land-ready-for-bloody-battle-1789847.html

a few more questions

6. if you remember we had a chat about IAF requirement for additional Mig 29, looks likie our assessment that IAF will get another squadron of Mig 29(possibly the last ever made) will come true, but my question is havent we already upgraded the Mig 29 to Mig 29 UPG standard then where s the scope for further upgrade, to SMT standard may be?

http://www.timesnownews.com/india/video/russia-mig-29-fighter-planes-indian-air-force-defence-ministry-india-russian-fighter-planes-nirmala-sitharaman/212511

7. is is possible that LCA mk2 will be now classified as MCA or AMCA well if it does it will much closer to F16, your views

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSED1azXKAc

8. if the below news is any true then looks to me foreign secretary, Vijay Gokhale as been sufficiently impressed by Chinese hospitality and now he is working to change to wind in favor of China, what do you think

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2139393/why-india-walking-away-its-tit-tat-china-policy
awaiting answes

9. this is an add to the earlier Question 2, looks like i was correct about Seychelles opposition arm twisting India to cough up more (possibly at dragons behest)

http://www.asianage.com/india/all-india/300318/india-offers-sops-to-keep-seychelles-plan-afloat.html

10. watch this video from 2.30 to 2.55 that says the 1800 ton Kalvari top deck is even bigger/double than 3000 ton EKM sindhughosh class, could this be true

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF6OQVC1dMg

11. how are torpedos of SSK and nuclear submarine different (watch the last few seconds)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srz1ACLeMHQ

hope to get answers this time

Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...

Well, it is expected as so called "full spectrum deterence" is not possible with those slcm of 450km range I think for it they need slbm with mirvs of MRBM or ICBM range.

So, back to "credible min deterence". But mumbai and major coastal cities can be targets which is alarming and may require new push for ASW capability ,area access deniability, air defence (particularly those low flying cruise missiles)

To prasun sir,
Pakistanis claim babur employs tercom & dsmac developed from tomahawks retrived in pak teritory. If true will it increase its lethality as it can fly more close to ground?
Your comments.

Anna

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM: It is an unsolicited offer by Russia & needs examination for sure. But one must not expect immediate results of any kind. Meanwhile, he’s an interesting report:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/us-closely-watching-india-s-plan-to-buy-s-400-air-defence-system-from-russia/story-j1iiz3hcH9Gzvw1LptLYhI.html

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: Christ or even Ram being a Hindu? If you were to go through any of the ancient scriptures or epics, NONE of them mention the word HINDU. In fact, the term used is DHARMA. Like I said several times before, terms like Hindu, Hindustan & Hinduism were all constructs of the colonial Britishers & they derived the term from first the Persian word HIND & later the Arabic word Al Hind. To the great misfortune of most Indians, this reality continues to be ignored & folks continue to live in a state of denial, which in turn causes one to have a low low sense of self-esteem/inferiority complex & this in turn gives rise to identity politiking. And the ugly & fatal consequences that follow were in full view last week & continue to unfold, as explained beautifully below:

Violence in Bihar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqdy8rCLrWg

Violence In Bengal & Bihar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwyuZ40tJ8M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4Xc8sB3BzY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pF8giOAowFA&t=94s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cZKWQMJ3so

Wild West of UP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu7KcnIY6D8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xvM2NKHHWM

Also, watch these:

Mecca’s Black Stone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlhS5sGinJQ

Inside The Kaabaah: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLxb7aI--fA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6htVBB0Vrro

Night Journey of Prophet Mohd: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsjUSSsEAdo

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANIK: No, it’s actually Credible Minimum Deterrence. And not minimum credible deterrence.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1A) AIP-powered SSKs are always employed for littoral warfare & therefore do not have to traverse long distances & hence spped is not important at all. 1B) How come? What if such an SSK chooses to remain submerged at deeper depths? 1C) ARAS is already being delivered for DDFs & FFGs. Thin-line towed-array for SSKs & SSBNs have yet to be procured. 2) How can it be a crime? What laws have I violated? Do any of those pages state that they are not meant for publiocation, or that they are TOP SECRET or SECRET or CONFIDENTIAL or RESTRICTED? You are thus ASSUMING, which is always the mother of all fuckups. 4) Why should MGS of 105mm field gun be reqd when 155mm MGS & 155mm heliborne versions are already available? 5) No belligerence at all, merely restating of China’s official position WRT Taiwan, which still is in possession of all original copies of international treaties struck with Imperial China, plus all the original statues & sculptures & other artifacts since the days of ancient China. 6) UPG & SMT strandard are one & the same. But the Phazotron-supplied Zhuk-M2E MMR has been problematic on both the MiG-29UPG & MiG-29K. It’s time the FGA-29 AESA-MMR was installed. Even the older Kopyo-M from Phazotron for the MiG-21Bison has been problematic. Inbstead of a promised MTBF of 150 hours, it has never delivered more than 64 hours! 7) It will be designated as LCA-AF MK.2. That has always been the case. Don’t quote dubious sources that belch out utter trash. 8) Not true. Here is the real reason: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8lhtAWIjfw 9) Nothing wrong with that. Aftrer all, there’s nothing wrong wikth trying to secure the best deal. You would have done the same. 10) What’s so unbelievable? The amount of mission electronics on-board the Scorpene is more than twice that on board the Type 877EKM SSKs. The latter is more electro-mechanical & electro-hydraulic, while the former is more electro-hydraulic & more electric. Hence, internal volume of Scorpene is greater, with more spacious living quarters & greater crew comfort. 11) They are not different at all if they carry conventional warheads. Meanwhile, watch these filed by a bunch of ‘desi’ journalists who were recently taken to Kibithu in Arunachal Pradesh on a guided junket:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mDsijqPfnM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWXt1j5qiD0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R2UirHDi-Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE681dvaXpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVLg4VBIUco

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada
Super article...watched the documentary on operation orchard
Dada do IAF, IA and INA can conduct such missions with such a precision inside India's adversaries

Dada one more thing in the link provided for operation hot pursuit, it was told that PARA SF conducting that mission was short in strength and personnel going to UN mission was rerouted.

Even having 8 battalions why could not PARA SF were swiftly shifted from some place else

Additionally why could not IA used space reconniancence rather than relying on buzzer tone that general Rawat was relying on

And.lastly 35 nos. Men it took to kill the terrosits...what could be possible estimates that more SF personnel's securing the perimeter

ashish gautam said...

Ok sir thanks for info. 1) The offer made by Russia for mig 29 is having most advance version of mig 29?
2) as u answered Mr ghosh regarding mig 29 upg. My question is in IAF & IN Currently which radar is being used on MIG29 zhuk-M2E or FGA29 or FGA35?

Anik said...

Indian Army increase presence in Walong region:
https://www.livemint.com/Politics/pk7ZEWPLKnYoVCO5o8SWpN/Army-increases-strength-at-IndiaChinaMyanmar-trijunction.html

GSAT 6A satellite was a dual use Satellite with IAF AFNET Secure Comms and Observation Capability has lost communication with ground station.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/isro-s-communications-satellite-gsat-6a-suffers-setback-in-space-sources-1831250



According to this report published on 12th March Malware was detected in ISRO computers. Any relation of this with loss of GSAT6A?

http://www.newindianexpress.com/cities/hyderabad/2018/mar/12/isro-computer-had-malware-couldve-been-hacked-say-researchers-1785758.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: 1) Of course it can. It waqs demonstrated way back in 1971 itself. 2) Because all Para (SF) Battalions are not trained to operate in all kinds of terrain/topography. For operations in tropical monsoon forests, only specific Battalions are available. 3) How to use space recce or even UAV-based recce when that programme clearly stated that not even sunlight can penetrate those tropical monsoon forests? 4) Why should any perimeter be secured when the objective is to destroy the camp? Why not just sit on dominating ground & attack with automatic grenade launchers, MMGs & disposable LAWs?

To ASHISH GAUTAM: 1) The offer is for MiG-29UPG. 2) Didn’t I state above that the Phazotron-supplied Zhuk-M2E MMR has been problematic on both the MiG-29UPG & MiG-29K?

To ANIK: Such malfunctions are almost always due to hardware malfunctions & not due to software-based malware. Here’s the latest from north-east Arunachal Pradesh:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iO4KJZsrXnc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEwN0L_Sz5g

And from Drass: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zud3ASXJgr8

Meanwhile, the kill-ratios achieved over the past 24 hours in south Kashmir by security forces have totally rattled the PA, since this proves that J & K’s security forces are receiving unprecedented cooperation from the locals there in terms of providing actionable information. And whatever hopes the PA had of securing support for its perceived Kashmir cause, they have all b een dashed by the anti-US, anti-Israel & anti-India soundbytes belched out by the APHC’s Mohd Ashraf Khan Sehrai:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0EcUAC2TWc

And as part of the PA’s continuing but doomed-to-fail effort to revive SAARC minus India, the PA’s COAS is visiting Maldives:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smAwoTn4dzI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4EVlwj9evM

And China’s state-owned media’s attempts to wage psychological warfare against the IA:

CGTN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkXVa2aiun8

Lastly, OFB-developed SLRs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yijGl7BItMA

While the 7.62 x 39 version of Ghaatak SLR is now in bulk production in order to replace the AK-47s used by the RR, CRPF, BSF & J & K Police, the 7.62 x 51 version’s full-scale development in conformance with the IA’s laid-down ergonomic & anthropometric data is now in progress.

Pierre Zorin said...

Senthil Kumar, instead of deliberately seeking out distorted and weird history, why not balance your views by going to Youtube and searching the channel, Theology, Philosophy and Science. You will find very informative information.

Sidharth said...

Prasun da,

You'd replied to The ENGDOC SOCIETY "1) Of course it can. It was demonstrated way back in 1971 itself" - Can you please enlighten us all which operation you are referring.

Anonymous said...

Sir what is the fighter squadron strength of PAF? There was some noise about their 190 aircrafts needing urgent replacement?

Also, sir how far have the upgrade programs for mig29, jaguars and mirages have progressed in terms of nos. of fighters upgraded till now?

Thanks in advance,

- VSJ

buddha said...

WION Gravitas: A powerful India can help Russia maintain autonomy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oW_2sOoTx1w

rad said...


HI prasun
i have a bad feeling of some one trying to replace an ak-47 ! and that too OFB???. i really wonder what did they Perceive wrong with the ak-47??.
if it is the cost , then the cost of a brand new one is 100$ in eastern Europe. Is there a rational reason for that??

what about the MSMC ? it seems to have been accepted by paramilitary and not the army , any progress?It seems to be popular in video games more!

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

Abhijit Iyer Mitra's latest column for Business Standard where he describes what plagues the Indian Army. Also I found these lines interesting, our Paki friends are developing a large arsenal of ATGMs to take out Indian tanks.

the bulk of Pakistan’s army preparation, largely due to financial constraints, was to go in for infantry methods of knocking out tanks – building up a vast arsenal of cheap, deadly anti-tank missiles. Make no mistake, as images of modern Turkish tanks destroyed by ISIS & the Kurds last year showed us, no level of armour or active protection is going to save multi-million dollar tanks, from several hits of deadly missiles, a fraction of the tank’s cost.

http://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/economy-policy/defence-modernisation-hurdles-if-budget-is-to-blame-so-is-army-leadership-118032200248_1.html?__twitter_impression=true

Thanks,
Sujoy

kishore said...

@pierre zorin,

stay away from senthil. if u try to treat him, you too will be contacting the same disease

Prranshu Yadav said...

Hi sir,
Just out of curiosity, if Indian air force were to carry out an operation similar to op. Orchard, which aircraft do you think they would likely use and why?

Anonymous said...

http://www.defencenews.in/article/India-wary-as-Maldives,-Pak-discuss-joint-EEZ-patrolling-in-Indian-Ocean-547359

Is it that serious threat as the article is trying to convey?

Tushar

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

evidence on this video you provided from 2.15 to 7.20 proves 105 mm are being used in Arunachal mountains

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVLg4VBIUco

as for your answer to my question where you said

4) Why should MGS of 105mm field gun be reqd when 155mm MGS & 155mm heliborne versions are already available?

is exactly the reason i said we should be having a MGS version of 105 mm IFG with increased calibre

1. what if a helicopter malfunctions at the critical moment or the bigger 155 mm MGS cant go to a area in question, then the much smaller 105 mm iFG MGS will be only option as it could go more closer to target area and more higher that TRAJAN?

2. with IA opting for IBG/Integrated Battle Group approach to fight future wars IA needs many MGS but with the Trajan/Ceaser numbers restricted to only 480 we will need more of MGS version of 105 mm IFG with increased calibre, as they are much smaller & faster and can fit on any Tata truck whereas TRAJAN needs specialized truck

3. btw just came to know that 105 MM was actually a tracked MGS (ABBOTT) in British Army, who on earth in IA planned a towed version of it, its like as you say putting cart before ox.

hope to get your views

Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...

Prasun sir,
This is from previous thread waiting for your comments------

Thank you sir for your reply and that article -

"The crux of the problem is that ISRO went full steam ahead and started launching the satellites in the Indian navigation system in quick succession, without bothering to ensure the CHIPSETS required for ground support also developed simultaneously to roll out the services. This is more merely a lapse but has led to criminal waste of public money. Those responsible will have to be identified and held accountable."
is spot on about the laxity on such very strategically important projects and I fear that sir as you highlight often about the importance of local semiconductor foundry or fab plant, so far no concrete steps are taken.

1)Sir, do you have any updates on these?-

Link - http://www.financialexpress.com/industry/government-to-rework-strategy-for-setting-up-chip-units/832061/lite/

and another thought provoking article on GaN foundry proposed at IISc bengauluru
http://m.deccanherald.com/?name=http://www.deccanherald.com/content/663415/dont-miss-bus-semiconductors.html

2) Now gsat-6a satellite problem do you think any SABOTAGING attempt by adversaries?

Reagards,
Anna

DAshu said...

What happened to PoK initiative! All gone silent.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SIDHARTH: It involved an operation by the Paracommandos of IA in the early hours of December 16, 1971 in a suburb of Dhaka in which about 6 single-storey houses containing Manipuri, Mizo & Naga separatists (safe houses provided by the ISI) were targetted & destroyed & all their occupants were killed.

To VSJ: On paper, the sqn strength of the PAF is 21 sqns, while that of the PLAAF is 66 sqns. The 2nd MiG-29UPG sqn is now being formed up, while only 1 sqn of upgraded Mirage 2000N exists. The first Juguar IS/DARIN sqn is now undergoing the upgrade.

To RAD: All man-made weapons have specified service-lives, including SLRs. Hence all those AK-47s procured in the 1990s have to be replaced & the Ghaatak’s 7.62 x 39 version has so far given excellent results on the field. The MSMC is reqd in large numbers by the various CAPFs & not by the armed forces.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: Everything at its disposal.

To TUSHAR: LoLz! Does the PN really have any of its warships to spare for such patrols? So don’t get taken in by all the idiotic sensationalism portrayed in that news-report.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: LoLz! Such reports are typical byproducts of a nitwit quoting an internet fanboy to make the spectacularly outrageous claim that the IA is well and truly broken & intellectually bankrupt. And mind you, none of them have ever visited a battlefield, nor have witnessed or analysed the IA’s Corps-level exercises & most unfortunately, none of these nitwits/fanboys have ever conducted any battle-studies of past military campaigns. For instance, if, presently, the IA is authorised by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) to have a total of 81,206 ATGMs, then can we conclude that the IA is placing far more emphasis on such ATGMs to neutralise the armoured threats from China & Pakistan? And do these two countries even possess so many tens of thousands of armoured vehicles? Clearly no, since ATGMs have been & are used to engage many more types of targets, like bunkers, ammo dumps, field artillery gunpits, etc etc by different kinds of infantry forces. And as for how armoured battles have been & will be fought in the subcontinent, it is all there in my thread on ‘WHY CHHAMB MATTERS’. There one will read that prior to commencement of any armoured battle, the entire tactical battle area is peppered with field/rocket artillery bombardment for at least 4 or even 7 hours & only after that do the armoured formations start moving ahead. The US did the same in both 1991 & 2003 in Iraq by launching fire-assaults against the Iraqi Army with MLRS non-stop for 48 hours in order to degrade the Iraqis’ fighting capacities. Similarly, before any IA armoured division enters enemy territory, there will be a 7-hour preparatory artillery bombardment in which some 120,000 rounds will be fired & you can rest assured that out to a depth of at least 40km ahead, no hostile living soul will be left standing or breathing in such areas. So it does not matter at all if the enemy has tens of thousands of ATGMs or lakhs of RPGs, since no one in that area will be left alive to use such weapons against an advancing IA armoured/mechanised formation!

And I’m not even taking into account the aerial firepower available from the IA’s aviation corps for immediate air-support, or the close air-support available from the IAF. In addition, the availability of K-9 Vajra tracked 155mm/52-cal SPHs will ensure that artillery firepower is available on-demand whenever any advancing IA armoured or mechanised formation achieves contact with enemy forces, simply because the K-9s being tracked can adcance as fast as the IA’s MBTs & ICVs.

As for the Turkish Army, its MBTs were knocked out by ATGM ambushes of the Kurds & that’s because the Turks never employed field artillery fire-assaults or attack helicopters in support of their advancing MBTs. Obviously the Turks had no intelligence information about the Kurds possessing ATGMs or even new-generation RPGs. Further, most of the Turkish MBTs attacked were not complete write-offs, i.e. they were repairable since only their rear-sections housing the powerpacks were targetted for damage.

In conclusion, therefore, only a thoroughbred nitwit with ZERO knowledge of manoeuvre warfare (which is an orchestrated & synchronised ballet of all types of weapons deployed on the battlefield) will jump to totally erroneous conclusions & compound such a failures by comparing apples & oranges.

Anonymous said...

Sir,
Regarding turks and kurds

1) how do you rate the turkish offensive and how will they how will turks hold their ground from insurgents in future?

2)do you see any clash between turks and US forces at Manbij if pentagon has its way especially with new hawks at NSA and State Dept or will POTUS Trump will have his way of leaving syria?
-----As the US military repeatedly commits to standing their ground, US President Donald Trump said in off the cuff remarks this week the US would leave Syria "very soon."
Link-http://amp.dw.com/en/us-turkey-on-collision-course-in-syrias-manbij/a-43207419

3)do you see turkey leaving NATO in future by connecting dots for bigger picture?

Regards,
Anna

ashish gautam said...

Sir kindly provide detailed info about nirmala mam visit to Moscow & progress on various projects in either a separate thread or here.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Those 105mm LFGs are the very ones to be replaced by the M-777 UFHs whose mobility parameters are far superior to those of the LFG. CH-47F helicopters are used for airlifting the UFHs to the gunpits & so far no such helicopter malfunctions of the type you’re speculating about have taken place. Only the Trajan’s procurement number has been restricted to less than 500. For MGS like Caesar, the reqd number is still 814. The British Army has its own towed LFG since the 1980s. The Abbott was the tracked version that also saw service with the IA.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Do go through this:

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20180402-future-infantry-combat-vehicle-idian-army-defence-1196430-2018-03-22

To ANNA: GaN foundries can be set up only if there's sufficient demand for such chips from the commercial electronics sector. No one in their right mind will set up such foundries just for the sake of catering to 'strategic' applications. And why so? Because no one else in the world has done so to date. And no one in India is interested in developing 'desi' alternatives to the US$100 billion worth of commercial electronics hardware that are imported annually.

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Anna,

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43592323
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43595891

Regarding Turks & Kurds,
a) Both are Sunni Muslims b) Both are Not Arabs c) Both are different ethnic Groups.

In Turkey 75% are Turks and 25% are Kurds. Kurds want a separate Country. Near by Iraq, Syria and Iran are in good Numbers want to form separate Kurdistan.

Now let us Analyze the current Scenario

Kurds Supporting Countries:- Israel, US, West, KSA, UAE, Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, Russia and Syria
Kurds Not Supporting Countries:- Turkey
Neutral:- Iran, Lebanon

Syria Supporting Countries: - Russia, Iran, Kurds and Lebanon
Syria Not Supporting Countries: - Israel, US, West,KSA, UAE,Qatar and Turkey
Neutral:- Egypt, Jordan

Iran Supporting Countries: - Syria, Russia, Lebanon and Qatar
Iran Not Supporting Countries: - Israel, US, West,KSA, UAE
Neutral:- Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Kurds

Turkey Supporting Countries: - Egypt, Jordan
Turkey Not Supporting Countries: - US, West, Kurds and Syria
Neutral:- KSA, UAE, Israel, Russia, Iran, Lebanon and Qatar

China is Neutal in many cases and in some cases it supports.

Now US already started to arming the Kurds. Next Israel+Iran+ KSA+ UAE working their plan to attack Iran. Russia+Iran+Syria forming alliance against it.

Nobody knows who is friend who is enemy in the war. And Nobody knows what will be the outcome of the coming wars.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Sidharth said...

Prasun da,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ozCEEz5q6Y

One question - How deeply Trojan's penetrated in Indian Armed Forces.

capri4791 said...

Hi Prasun,

Look forward to your replies to the queries I had shared earlier..n some more of the same :) :)

- what is the progress on HTT40, Arjun MK2 [weight reduction,upgrades]?
- is KC 46A a good fit for IAF (buying them will keep US in good spirits I guess)
- will IA buy tavor 7 rifles [should be a good fit for make in India]
- which radar would IAF likely go for Elta 2052 or RBE derivative for mark 1A
- Its puzzling as to how can FA 50 /gripen C carry more weapons payload than tejas when they are identical in most aspects. Also the fact that Tejas has a huge carbon composite content in its airframe which should make it more lighter!! is it just over engg or a design flaw? can you share a comparison of tejas vs gripen c vs fa 50

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

Thanks for the elaborate explanation. This point that you made :

" the entire tactical battle area is peppered with field/rocket artillery bombardment for at least 4 or even 7 hours & only after that do the armoured formations start moving ahead."

Won't the Pakis do the same to the Indian Army (IA) as well ? Will the IA survive such an onslaught ?

Thanks again, Sujoy

Kaustav said...

And why not sir would be the natural question to your poser as to why no semiconductor foundries GaN or otherwise for producing chips in the private sector have been set up is sadly too well documented by the technocrats who tried and returned in defeat and financially ruined by our idiotic red tape, to trouble you for the tragi-comic farce provides the sad answer over and over again....Hum nahi Sudrenge ...Aka RTDed ( Refusing to Develop) India.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,
About GaN founderies. Don't you think a lot of civilian developments driven by the military application?

The first jet engines were solely developed for military applications. It took a decade around 1950 when the first jet airliner was developed.

The whole rocket technology kick-started from a military application. It took almost 2 decades to convert rockets for civilian applications like launching communication satellites, even then the early communication sats were dedicated to military purposes.

Even development computers were kickstarted by military applications, not civilian economics. It later helped the economies drastically, but first, all things we see right even AI, smartphones, gadgets, stored meals like MRE were all military driven, later it become civilian one.

The nuclear technology, even in India's case, for last 40 years we unable to produce commercial electricity from our PHWR reactors, only now we starting to produce commercial electricity from our 500 MW and 700 MW reactors.

I think if in cost-benefit ratio if the GaN founderies far exceed the economics, and thinking of economics after establishing the infrastructure, I don't find any problems. This happened in past and happening right now.

Like railguns, Directed Energy, there is very less civilian markets for that. But still, countries spending on that.

Furthur, I think as our economy grow, and our defense budget grows even with 1% of GDP. Indian militaries alone able to handle economics of new technologies, and civilian applications and innovations that happen with that also add to it.

Whats your thought about that?

Arpit Kanodia said...

Yes, might be because of our own histories, our thought process is developed like that. Besides during Maurya Empire, our thought process was always commercial one like of Carthage and Chinese.

And Europeans mindset was always like militaristic mindset. Besides some exceptions (before WW2), most of the European countries always had the militaristic mindset. Even in sone ke chidiya days, Europeans had best militaries. Best trained soldiers.

There was the striking difference, the first war academies, training officers, the whole training infrastructure was established by Europeans in 16th and 17th century. Prussians had the best military on the entire planet.

And in the last days of Maratha Empire, we were hiring Officers and Generals from Germany and France for the fight against Red Coats. Our officers were so much incompetent.

I think this tells us alot, why Europeans always focused on military and strategic development.

But I think one thing we need to accept, besides German horrific disasters in WW2, history only awarded those nations/kingdom/states who had the best military and ahead of the world in military technology, instead of commercial and trading nation.


Whenever opportunity arrives, the more militaristic nation just conquer commercial nations.

The best example is of Rome winning over Carthage.

Arpit Kanodia said...

One thing I also want to add, militarisation itself create domino effects for economics. Afterall from last 10,000 years, that was militarisation that was driving whole worlds economies. The civilian application always comes secondary as a feel-good factor and keeping the state itself sustainable.

BTW, I am not proposing a militarisation of state, obviously not, but militarisation of the military itself, and keeping them way ahead of the world, whatever the cost.

Even the welfare state have to think about there military after all. Otherwise, we are going to be another Carthage in this world or Bharat of the 10th century or Hindustan of the 17th and 18th century.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To CAPRI4791: For HTT-40 & others, do read this:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/hal-s-record-turnover-in-fy18-masks-concern-over-dwindling-order-book-118040201077_1.html

Arjun Mk.2 made of HNS is still under fabrication for user-evaluations. KC-46A or even B.767 converted into aerial refuellling tanker by IAI/BEDEK will both be excellent options. Tavor-7 should be the logical choice. How can RBE-2 be integrated with Derby BVRAAM (which has been specified by the IAF) & if this is the case, then why did HAL issue tenders for AESA-MMRs? Hence, iot is obvious that HAL & IAF are working at cross-purposes. Tejas Mk.1 is BADLY ENGINEERED. If it was an optimal design from ADA, then why is HAL on the Tejas Mk.1A making 59 improvements over the existing Mk.1? It is therefore obvious that ADA is incapable of offering any kind of optimally engineered platform.

To SUKOY MAJUMDAR: Of course the PA did exactly this in both 1975 & 1971 as was revealed in the pages uploaded in the thread WHY CHHAMB MATTERS. How to forestall it in future? Elementary: possess superior ISTR capabilities for early warning, like MALE-UAVs & standoff battlespace surveillance platforms.

To KAUSTAV: Why blame bureaucrats or red-tape? Isn’t it the job of the civilian ‘netas’ to overcome bureaucratic resistance by enacting suitable parliamentary legislations? Why can’t these godforsaken ‘netas’ even have a debate on the reports tabled by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence? And in case anyone wants to know why the TSD was shut down (due to pressure from the ‘netas’), do go through these damning revelations:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ozCEEz5q6Y

Anonymous said...

Sir see this
1)“Free & Open #IndoPacific” now officially a US strategy. No longer a concept. Strategy means resources are applied. Concept more theoretical.
Link-https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/status/981014202352484352?s=20

Briefing on The Indo-Pacific Strategy
Key point concerning india-
Wong-"Secondly, I want to turn your attention to the term “Indo-Pacific.” It’s significant that we use this term. Before, people used the term Asia Pacific, or just simply Asia, but we’ve adopted this phrase for two reasons, and it’s significant for two reasons.

Number one, it acknowledges the historical reality and the current-day reality that South Asia, and in particular India, plays a key role in the Pacific and in East Asia and in Southeast Asia. That’s been true for thousands of years and it’s true today. Secondly, it is in our interest, the U.S. interest, as well as the interests of the region, that India play an increasingly weighty role in the region. India is a nation that is invested in a free and open order. It is a democracy. It is a nation that can bookend and anchor the free and open order in the Indo-Pacific region, and it’s our policy to ensure that India does play that role, does become over time a more influential player in the region."

WONG-"But I will say it’s not just India that is pursuing greater engagement with East Asia and Southeast Asia. There are a number of crisscrossing strategies throughout the region. So if you look at India’s Act East Policy, if you look at South Korea’s New Southern Policy, if you look at Japan’s own Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, if you look at Australia’s Foreign Policy White Paper, if you look at Taiwan’s new Southbound Policy, these partners in the region are all seeking to increase political, security, and economic ties, particularly with the ASEAN states. And that’s in our interest."

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/04/280134.htm

Sir, your views, do you see any bigger picture?

2) In the press breif question from "desi patrakaar" from PTI
QUESTION: And secondly, the deep inroads – inroads that China has made in Maldives – now it owns around nine islands there – does it any way threaten the free and open trade in Indo-Pacific region?

How true that china owns 9 islands?

3)Another important thread on QUANTUM COMM TECH and China's CSIC----
THREAD: New players in China's quantum industrial complex. CSIC, who builds China's SSBNs, recently revealed organisational details of research labs set up with the help of Pan Jianwei, the “Father of quantum tech”..........

https://twitter.com/soraywang/status/979403540748750848?s=20

Why CSIC? May be trying for replacing VLF/ELF radio? In US there is similar propasal for neutrino comm.
Link- https://www.technologyreview.com/s/415579/how-neutrinos-could-revolutionize-communications-with-submarines/amp/
They even claim to have/ ability to produce a quantum radar!!!
Link-https://www.popsci.com/amp/china-says-it-has-quantum-radar-what-does-that-mean

Honestly I don't know much sir. What is it all about?

Regards,
Anna

Anonymous said...

Prasunji,

1) What is your opinion of the recent discontent from the South regarding the 15th FC?

2) Considering the relative unity with which the South has reacted, how do you think new Delhi will react? Has it had any effect on bjp's arrogance, that we have seen of late? You said that the scale of jallikattu protests in TN in 2017 had given a jolt to Delhi, has this caused a similar reaction?

3) There have been disconcerting voices about secession of the South from India? I initially thought it was only Stalin, but there seems to be a sizable support base for it online and growing... Are they Pakistan cyber forces or genuine supporters. Your thoughts?

4) Do you think a united South can resist the Northern push, when it comes to hindi imposition and hindutva?

5) Concerning the economic rift between South and North is growing, do you see this leading to calls for secession in the future?

6) Lastly considering yesterday's dalit agitation, has taken place only in bjp ruled states but not in South or East, doesn't this nail a Congress plot to defame modi?

Thanks
Amoghavarsha

Rajiv M said...

Sir,Is there any possibility that China infected the GSAT 6A or any likelihood of China sabotaging it with ASAT lasers?
Secondly, where do see things heading with the US-China trade war?
And finally, your views on these:

http://tass.com/defense/996974

http://wap.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/china-to-launch-two-satellites-for-pakistan-in-june-118040301288_1.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: Your PoV applies to only those developed countries, i.e. former colonial powers that emerged victorious after WW-2, since they possessed enormous financial & human resources reqd for sustaining gigantic military-industrial complexes. The US, the UK, Italy, Germany & France & to some extent the former USSR come into this category. They therefore had & continue to have a commanding financial & technological lead in the military arena that in turn led them to introduce military-origin innovations into the commercial sectors. On the other hand are countries like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea & now China that decided to focus on the commercial sectors for introducing world-beating innovations & industrialisation & all these countries continue to be weapons importers. Now ehere does India stand & which type of industrialisation model should she follow? Obviously India can only dream of creating a military-industrial complex rivalling those of the developed countries or even of China, simply because of the commanding lead enjoyed by others, especially in the global export markets. The same also applies to the the commercial electronics sector. Nor can I foresee the day when India comes up with a common-sensical industrialisation roadmap for such sectors—civilian or military. If at all there’s any hope for India becoming a serious global industrial power, then it will have to be through the civilian-to-military route, as has been the case with the country’s nuclear & space applications industries, i.e. India first had to learn how to develop satellite-launching rockets before venturing into the ballistic missile development arena. Electricity-generating PHWRs had to be developed before venturing into military-spec PWRs.

Perhaps we can learn from the Israeli experience: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bFXoowKSo4

To ANNA: 1) That’s the so-called China Containment Strategy, making use of democracies to counter a totalitarian state like China. Since the majority of the world’s countries, especially the prosperous ones, are democracies, any coming together of such countries that are also challenging China’s narrative will therefore automatically keep China on tenderhooks. 2) China does not own any islands of Maldives. China has only secured licences for building tropical island resorts on those 9 islands. 3) Why CSIC? One must remember that when China revealed its plans for achieving massive industrialial modernisation in the early 1980s, it had selected its maritime & aerospace sectors as the 2 principal springboards for achieving its industrial modernisation targets. Meanwhile, do watch this:

Where Cybercrime Goes to Hide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CashAq5RToM&t=20s

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMOGHAVARSHA: 1,2 & 3) It is all explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7bC4C0B3_k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUrzAejr_qg

6) If that is indeed the case, then such a massive plot can surely never be kept a secret. But that’s not the reason why the Dalits rose up in protest & that too violently. NaMo was voted into power in 2014 on promises to reignite growth in Asia’s third-largest economy and provide jobs. But his flagship “Make in India” initiative to lift the share of manufacturing in India’s US$2 trillion economy to 25% from about 17% and create 100 million jobs by 2022 has so far failed to deliver on its promise. That’s why 25 million people applied for 90,000 blue collar jobs recently advertised by Indian Railways. This statistic captures the fundamental divide in the Indian economy. All talk of young Indians being engaged in the knowledge-based digital economy and creating potential unicorns is valid only for a minuscule minority. An overwhelming majority is desperately looking for government jobs, even if it involves daily drudgery. The preference for government jobs has traditionally come from three reasons. Interestingly, two of these are rapidly becoming less relevant. One, the majority of jobs with secure incomes and social security are still in the public sector. The latest data (for 2011-12) from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy puts this figure at 60%. Two, the reservation policy gives a better chance of landing these jobs to almost half of India’s population, those belonging the scheduled castes and tribes and other backward classes. The public sector is not going to be generating enough jobs to meet India’s employment challenge. And in many states, cut-offs in reserved categories are already on a par with or even above the scores for unreserved seats. The third reason is still valid. A large number of public sector jobs do not require any special skill. A person just needs the minimum educational qualification to apply for these jobs. The third reason is the biggest threat to India’s demographic dividend. Our education system, barring a few exceptions, has failed to impart the skills to India’s job-seekers to even compete for skill and better paying jobs in the private sector.

To RAJIV M: LoLz! The greatest damage to GSAT-6A was caused in early 2011 itself when several ‘desi’ headless chickens led by TIMESNOW cried foul about the ISRO-Devas Multimedia deal. The now-lost GSAT-6A was the very satellite that was conceived & funded by Devas Multimedia for ushering in a new revolution in cellular telecommunications in India. So, to all whose who are now blaming China, my advice to them is to pause & ask themselves why the hell did they sabotage the original ISRO-Devas Multimedia deal? And how can they now expect any form of salvation? This is one of those universal divine laws of the cosmos coming into play: what goes around, comes around as well. Bon Voyage & RIP, GSAT-6A!!!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZSQJk2AcLE

Wonder why the Mi-17V-5's flight-crew was unable to descend into a gentle hover prior to landing. Looks like the flight-crew came in on a quick slanting descent of the type normally meant for air bases. No wonder the helicopter lurched forward & hit the edge of the raised helipad & that in turn caused the Mi-17V-5 to tip pver. Luckily no fire broke out & more than 60% of the airframe & on-board systems can be salvaged & recycled for future use as spares.

VINOD KUMAR said...

http://idrw.org/indian-air-force-to-buy-100-fighter-planes-to-fill-shortage-in-combat-aircraft/ Sir,What about this report which aircraft will be selected?

Pierre Zorin said...

@ Kishore LoLLLZZZ Thanks buddy for that timely advice :)

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Why has the LoC become silent? Is GoI falling once again for ``talks with Pak" under international pressure/influence from MEA elements?

Satyaki

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://uaeviral.com/dubais-head-of-general-security-attacks-pakistanis-with-racist-tweets

Senthil Kumar said...

@Kishore

I think Kishore must have got affected by my post personally, culturally, linguistically or religiously.

I never post anyone personally. All the contents are available in open domain. Most of the time truth will bites.It is hard to swallow. Because world is made up of fake news and false story & history.

When people start to dig the truth some will get affected. Keeping away from debate is called self defeat.

@Pierre Zorin

Your answer for my question about Jesus, you quoted "Christianity is a Western product"
I strongly agree to your answer. Regarding Jesus and Christianity mine and your views are same. We both have same thought in this issues. But you and me have different views in different subjects.

Always keep people near you who are questioning your thoughts. That will make your perfect.

By discussing with people having different views never result in any so called diseases. Don't Worry.

Regards,
S.Senthil Kumar

Arpit Kanodia said...

But sir. the situation we talking about is pretty new. Only 50 years old.

Before 17th-century European countries were as much poor as we are right now, even worse.

But their armies were still far far better than any other armies in the world.
They had war academies, they had officers training schools, they had trained soldiers.

And even before WW1, the Prussians/Germans invested in railway for faster deployment of soldiers, not for economic purposes.

The performance of Prussian Army during 7 years war was splendid, these guys invested in training, R&D of Musket, rifles, cannons, tactics, trained officers. But the citizen inside Prussia was very very poor. I think average Indian was 10 times more richer than a citizen in Europe during the 15th-17th century. But we still never developed our militaries.

That was the Ottomans that developed field cannons, I think I read somewhere that Ottomans actually donated 100 field cannons to Babur to defeat Delhi Sultunate. The first usage of mobile cannons incorporated during 30 years war. There were no economic incentives for that.

If in 15th or 16th century, English thought of why invest in navy, we have no trade surpluses, then I think Britain never able to conquer India and become the superpower.

And like us, Spanish vanished, otherwise they were Economic Superpower until the 17th century, but when they got behind in military advancement, they become dead. While the more, worst kind of POOR countries in Europe become the world powers by the 18th century, even before the industrial revolution.

There was no economic incentive in all this, but I think GOD is also with those nation who have best militaries in the world, not a super duper trading power.

Arpit Kanodia said...

BTW, I am not saying to bankrupt our country for military development. Obviously not. But I am just comparing cultures.

Even during the Bubonic plague, Europeans were fighting with each other. They never put economics above military, but that changed from 1945.

Even us, we were best under when we had the largest army on the entire planet. 3 times larger than Romans.

If we compare the number of soldiers they had V/S population, by the current standards(1.2 billion population) is going to be around 40 million soldiers. That is 40 times larger than our current army.

And at that time, Mauryans were ahead in training, tactics, weaponry in comparison to other civilizations at that time.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Human moved from Ethiopia via Mumbai seashore to Kumari Kandam (Lemuria) which included Tamilnadu. Tamil was the language of the Gods. Most ancient civilization was created at Kumari Kandam. Kumari Kandam gods moved to North and East and refined the Nag language i.e. the ancient nasal Hindi in to Sanskrit. So Sanskrit is the language refined and created by the Gods. So Veda are created by the Gods. Then Veda Gods moved to Middle East and Europe through Iran and Kurdistan. Some Tamils moved to ME through Arabian sea coasts. They all went to ME and Egypt in most earlier times. So what is the problem if Jesus the Christ was a Malyaalee or a Tamil. Please let us try to stop this topic, Westerners can not withstand this.

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Rajesh Mishra

Firstly there was no Mumbai. Second, there was no Kumari Kandam


There was land which connected East , not South as many think. East India to Indonesia to Australia during Last Glacial Maxima.


As for population transfer? There is no evidence of such large population transfer happened in entire history of humankind from east to west.

And the Genetic mutation was so fast that color skin changed from brown/black to white under 10000 years. Thats not possible.

And let's say even if Jesus Christ was Tamil. Then so what? What is advantage of that in current geopolitics?

All Chinese, Japanese Buddhist know , Buddha was Suryavanshi, so we should consider all Japanese as followers of Suryavanshi clan?


And westerns can withstand this, they just say fuck it. You really think it matter, without a single shred of evidence?


There are thousands of conspiracy theories about Jesus. Does it matter?


The most interesting thing in all cultures, religion be it Abrahamic or Dharmic or many other ethnic group.

All have stories of great flood. What was that?

That can't be increase of temp , and deglaciation. That itself take 5000-6000 years under normal conditions.

Senthil Kumar said...

@Arpit Kanodia

Your view on countries having military power is succeeding than Countries having commercial power counties is Correct. But there is a expiry date for that status.

See the empires starting from Romans, Othaman, Portuguese, Spanish, French and later British. For one or two centuries they ruled the world and slowly they start to decline and finally they disappear from the scene.

Take British, during their peak power they had 900 war ships. Now they are struggling to keep 50 warships today. Very soon British will beg Indians to protect their country.

After WW2, US is in peak Power and now slowly they start decline and China start rising. Chinese term will run for one century and they will disappear one day. This keeps going on.

Countries keeping a guaranteed military power to protect themselves and keep increase their trading power will succeed in long run.

If the above comments hurts you, you can ignore my comments.

Thanks & Regards,
S.Senthil Kumar

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.qa/2018/04/is-chinas-belt-and-road-working.html
http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.qa/2018/04/kashgar-lost-frontier.html

China is slowing winning and occupying other countries using their money power. Next decade most of the countries are debt trapped and will become slaves to Chinese masters.

I think India, US & west are slowly understand the reality and accepting their defeat.
Somehow String of Pearls is working. Hard time ahead for India.

Please give your comments.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Is the S-400 deal being delayed bacause of potential U.S sanctions on such a deal? When even turkey (a NATO member) is brushing aside such sanctions to go for the S-400, why is GoI hesitating ?

Kritavarma

Anonymous said...

Prasunji,

1)Is it true that till 7th finance commission which fixed population to be taken at 1971 census, the FCs used to give 80-90% importance to population alone in devolution of funds?
Doesn't this mean that Northern states which had higher population all along still got more money from centre despite southern states being poorer at that time, or at least that the amount transferred from north to south at that time was far less than that which is transferred the other way around right now?

2)Is there any truth in long standing complaints from the South that many public sector industries and employment opportunities were deliberately shifted north due to the powerful North lobby?

Thanks
Amoghavarsha

ashish gautam said...

Prasun sir, so no fruitful result of sitharaman's Russia visit?
No deal signed?
If anything positive happened kindly inform us about it.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir

https://youtu.be/opsThv4bc_8

What do you think of this. Might be the Chinese who need Visa type permit in there own nation to move from one state to another.

Whatever state of Pakistan is, but her citizen got more freedom than China.

When these Chinese come, they suddenly realise such type of freedom also exist on planet earth. And then they start to disregard rule of law.

@Sentil Lolz, I always ignore you.

Kapil said...

Prasun da, are the Saudis and Chinese willing to bail them out? Can India and US stop them from doing this? www.atimes.com/article/pakistan-seeks-bailout-china-saudis-rather-imf/

Rajesh Mishra said...

@Arpit Kanodia : Indo-Ethiopian migration has been much earlier than the last Glacial Maxima. These peoples have migrated through the possible seashores nearest to what we call today as Bandar Abbas, Chabhar, Gwader, Karachi, Dwarika, Chaupati etc.

The Xeno said...

https://scroll.in/article/874102/aryan-migration-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-study-on-indian-genetics

The Xeno said...

https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/genomic-study-vedic-aryan-migration-dravidian-languages-sanskrit

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Rajesh Mishra ,Do you realise the earth didn't looked like, like you describing some 24,000 years.


Firstly, there was no Mumbai, Karachi,Bander Abbas some 24000 years, even by standards of geography. The geography was pretty different

As for migration, if you want to go that much old. How you are sure those were Homo Sapiens, and not Neantherdals?

Just because we all assumed Neantherdals limited to Europe?

Btw, there is an evolution linkage exist of Neantherdals. That is us whose don't exist.

Homo Sapiens are like we directly parachuted from heaven to earth.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: There are LoC violations at least once every week, so why any speculation on matters cooling down?

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: here are the original source-reports:

https://www.telegraphindia.com/1161106/jsp/7days/story_117637.jsp

https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/Cover-story/Is-China-s-Belt-and-Road-working-A-progress-report-from-eight-countries?n_cid=NARAN185&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=infeed&utm_campaign=IC%20V2min&utm_content=FB%20Asia%20Daily%20Briefing

In both, it clearly comes out that China is facing growing difficulties in realising its objectives. So where are any indications that India or Japan or the US are losing?

To KRITAVARMA: Here is one news-report: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-russia-set-to-ink-rs-39-000-cr-air-defence-system-deal-in-oct/story-shgedpb3FcN683ntIU9CcK.html

How can the MoD ink any procurement contract for the S-400 when the BMD version of the S-400 is still under development & is nowhere near to operational deployment anywhere?

To ASHISH GAUTAM: The Indian RM’s visit to Russia was not for signing any deals. She had gone there for the 7th Moscow Conference on International Security & here is her speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lYM99uUG88

Pak Defence Minister at the same conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81prLifqcVw (from 1.26.58 till 1.38.56)

Maldives Wants Do-228, not ALH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBCPKgRwGSk

India Slams Pakistan at NAM Meeting in Azerbaijan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO37w-teMmI

To ARPIT KANODIA: Here are some better videoclips of the same incident:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wBsArt8mRU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT_LTIWFUgg

There are also increasing suspicions among the urban Pakistani citizens that the on-going crackdowns by the IB & FIA against local bloggers & social media activists are all being done at the behest of China.

To RAD: Some items to be showcased at DEFEXPO 2018:

AIR SURVEILLANCE RADAR https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZba2gEVQAAoPbp.jpg
Gun Shot Detection System https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZbab4xVAAA_L5a.jpg
Both of them were developed in-house by BEL. The radar is likely a scaled-up version of the DRDO-developed ASHLESHA.

SoTM https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZbZmp7UMAABOqr.jpg

BEL-Upgraded Schilka https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZbZAg3VwAAatAe.jpg

Swathi WLR https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZbZZb1UMAEC73W.jpg

SEM https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZXrU5BV4AEUaYX.jpg

https://defexpoindia.in/Open%20Challenge%20Problems.pdf

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMOGHAVARSHA: 1 & 2) Facts speak otherwise. For instance, this:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZQIyUlXcAAmv5C.jpg

Here’s the big picture: Indian business’s greatest challenge right now is the frozen credit system. This government, though, isn’t mostly to blame for it, most debts turning bad were given or evergreened in UPA’s times, especially in the go-go years of 2009-12. The rot in the system was known for at least three years, but left too late to be resolved. Several things came in the way of timely resolution. First, the change at the top in the Reserve Bank of India. Then, the shock of demonetisation before the new Governor had settled down. Barely had that debris been cleared when GST was pushed through. The system had not been prepared for any of these changes & therefore, got fully consumed in dealing with these. The bank bad-debt resolution was kept for the government’s last year. Today’s stress & distress are a combination of all these factors: of being dumped by the political establishment you thought was your own, tax terror and frozen credit. This entrepreneurial fear & loss of morale is for real, & most inopportune when good corporates are seeing profits & demand rise. Steel, in the dumps not long ago, is booming, & so is cement. The bankruptcy process of the first “dirty dozen” is proceeding well & banks should see sizeable amounts coming back, especially from steel companies. At the same time, 12 of the 21 PSU banks are so broke that the RBI is closely monitoring any lending by them. One, IDBI, is now a basket case. And those that can lend are hesitant, for fear of visits by the CBI & ED long after they retire. In this environment, everybody is over-correcting, from banks to borrowers to RBI. The latest example being the circular the central bank issued in February barring any restructuring except through the bankruptcy process after a set timeframe. Nobody wants to take any chances, least of all the RBI. The silent new Governor was never allowed (or chose not to allow himself) to build the stature for the job. The government is now trying to get this circular diluted. The big, rich guy’s biggest fear isn’t bankruptcy, but the police. As we noted earlier in this piece, none of them has been raided or prosecuted criminally yet. But Vijay Mallya first, & then the Nirav Modi-Mehul Choksi duo have given corporate India a foretaste of criminalisation of economic offences. Phobias rise not from reality, but illusion. The most popular current illusion is: the PSU banks are in a mess. The Modi government also needs some big private sector trophies to affirm its anti-corruption credentials before the polls. So on whose neck will the sword fall next? To that extent, the outing of the ICICI-Videocon story is cathartic. The whistleblower’s 2016 letter had been floating on the power-WhatsApp circuit for weeks. Many would feel relieved that it’s out in the open now so all sides can have their say.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://theprint.in/security/israeli-firms-iai-rafael-taken-off-restricted-list-after-closure-of-corruption-case/47393/

In a classified exercise done in 1975 at the Army War College, Mhow, called ‘Tribhuvan’, Nepal was regarded as the geo-strategic avenue for any Chinese thrust into the strategic Indo-Gangetic plains bordering UP and Bihar. That pathway is still usable clandestinely by the Chinese, who are adept at this medieval art. But there are other ways the Chinese are bedding in. Their presence, investment and involvement in Nepal’s domestic politics and creeping interest in the military and police have magnified rapidly. They have already bagged most of the rail, road, hydropower and airport projects. The new Pokhara and Bhairwa (Lumbini) airports and the expansion of the existing Tribhuvan International Airport are all underway with the help of Chinese companies, financed by loans given by Exim Bank. China has built a new $350 million armed police force academy. The 800-MW Budhi Gandaki hydel project will also be restored to China. The Chinese are investing heavily in the Pokhara lakeside area. About 35 to 40 ‘Confucian centres’ have come up in Terai. Chinese tourists arriving by air are second only to those coming from India. The Belt and Road Initiative blueprint is at an advanced stage. But some Nepalese are worried about a Sri Lanka-like debt trap. No one understands how Chinese invest and construct their projects. There is never any criticism of China in Nepal—which is reserved for India—if fraud is involved. Meanwhile, China has hailed Nepal’s independent foreign policy, criticised India for making Nepal overly reliant on itself, and hoped that all three countries can work together for common development. No major domestic political change has ever taken place in Nepal without India’s handiwork—from the reconciliation between the Ranas, monarchy and Nepali Congress, to the restoration of multi-party democracy, and the dismantling of the monarchy and the democratisation of the revolutionary Maoists. A pro-China government vanquishing the democratic alliance of the pro-India Nepali Congress was a jolt for New Delhi. They should have known it was coming. In the past, Nepalese prime ministers, on being anointed, have bent over backwards to be invited to the Delhi durbar, making it their first port of call before Beijing. This used to be done to maintain Nepal’s stated policy of equidistance counselled by the founding father, Prithvi Narayan Shah. This time around, the boot was on the other foot. India had to do some quick and nimble diplomacy—dispatching foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to invite Oli—in making India the first country for Oli visits after becoming prime minister. In addition, three phone calls from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who in 2014 became a rock star in Nepal, completed the trick.

https://theprint.in/opinion/india-cannot-continue-to-take-nepal-for-granted-anymore/47059/

Unknown said...

Dear prasun

Hi

Since January 2018 the have been more than 600 loc violations from.both sides in aggregate. So yes the loc is heated up. But given the proposal of general bajwa of giving up good and bad terrorism etc, is it plausible that loc may get crossed any time shortly? My guess with the present government is that they are ok with reply of bullet with bombs but unclear of what to do.beyond that

Regards

Kunal

Anonymous said...

To prasun sir,
AIR SURVEILLANCE RADAR https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DZba2gEVQAAoPbp.jpg

1)In p-15b destroyers can this radar be used instead of LW-08 or RAN-40L used in iac1 vikrant will be used?

2)how does it compare with existing systems like RAN-40L or S1850M (daring destroyers)?

Regards,
Anna

jasss gill said...

sir watching in video how Chinese insulted Pakistani police. my simple question what's Pakistan future according to you 1. a Chinese colony, 2. a bankrupt country, 3 next north korea, and i always heard Pakistan's stability good for india its true or not in near future?

buddha said...

idrw.org/govt-firms-up-plans-for-made-in-india-kalashnikov-rifles/#more-166551
Is it required

Just curious said...

Hi prasun, what are it views about the AK 103 being locally manufacturered with ofb..So does that mean death knell to ofb 7.62 rifle or favor 7?? ..Why is ofb not being given a chance?

Anonymous said...

Don't you think that it's time to ditch Nepal. They always try to balance india with China. Their so called independent foreign policy won't be independent if we stop supporting them and throw them to Chinese hands. Also lots of drug trafficking and infiltration occurs through that porous borders. I think closing the border will benefit India more.

Tushar

ashish gautam said...

Ok sir. Thanks for links.

Amoghavarsha said...

Prasun, the URL of the picture you posted is that of Aerospace parks & no doubt South India has an advantage because the aerospace & defence industry (or at least most of it) is in South because Central Govt wanted these organizations far away from the international border.

However, the northern states, especially the Hindi heartland is a big source of problem. They fail in every socio economic endeavor. Their biggest failure is population - population is out of control. They send the maximum number of MPs to parliament. It is not necessary for any party to win in South or East. Simply win hindi heartland with one western state & you can come to power. Mindless migration from UP, Bihar into South & East is already causing several social, economic tensions. I'm quite sure that people in Southern & possibly eastern states will not take these things lying down for long. Therefore, it is quite likely that before 2040 India will split again just like it did in 1947.


Thanks
Amoghavarsha

soi said...

Hello Prasun da,

IAF has given RFI for 110 Fighters, Your thoughts on:
1. Who will be probable winner?
2.Who will be the Strategic Partner when the SP policy itself is not clear enough?
3. What will be the span of this deal till signing any sort of contract?
4. What will be the impact on LCA Mk-2 Project, does it completely shoves of the little chances that LCA Mk-2 to take off?

5.Lastly in small arms,
some of your last replies you said "While the 7.62 x 39 version of Ghaatak SLR is now in
bulk production in order to replace the AK-47s used by the RR, CRPF, BSF & J & K Police"

Are you sure that RR has chosen Ghatak Rifles, as RR is under Indian Army and when they have thought on going with the 7.62*51 what is the use of 7.62*39 anymore?

Regards,
SOikot Banerjee

rad said...


hi prasun
i dont understand why the ak-103 is going to b e made in india when we are making a clone of the same gun?

my 2 paisa thoughts for for the solution poised by the drdo

1) the ejection mech for helicopters

Russia has already made it , after extensive research i suppose, ie blowing of the rotors with cutting charges like the canopy and ejection by a normal k-36 type seat

my idea is first blow the canopy doors out ward side ways and bring the seat of the pilots to pivot sideways 90 deg left or right and then eject ,of course the doors should be designed so that there is enough clearance . An ejection rocket may fry the other guy, so a strong pneumatic ejection system should work fine instead .

2) as we have our own gps and our own SAR radar ie the elm 2060 pod. we can easily map the terrain in 3d digital synthetic map . This would give height above ground plus minus 1 ft. This can be tied into the auto pilot system of the aircraft and set , moreover we have Doppler radar for accurate height above ground in all ac. The fighter can switch over to multiple narrow field of view gps antenna looking just 45 deg from the vertical to avoid scattering and reflection problems . of course the fighter must have very accurate FOG and inertial system to fly NOE mode and the flight control system should be fast enough to handle the twist and turns.

3) the real time gps location on a screen can be done by extracting gps positions from the module of each wearer in time shared protocol and transmitted in CDMA spread spectrum for less susceptibility in bursts ,in very low watt power say .5 watts . Say there are 10 spec ops guys in a group, soldier no 1 device transmits , the no 2 and then 3 etc this happens very fast so more or less real time . .of course the guys should be in radio line of sight.
text to speech and vice versa is already there so no problem .

i believe the problems posted by drdo were already solved by the SAATHI hand held device that DR Kalam was so enthused about .I am sure some arse hole some where down the line shot it down. what happened to it ??

your thoughts please!!



the prize money is really cheap !@#$%%


ashish gautam said...

Sir pls provide pic or details of rfi issued by iaf today as when I click on its pdf, it shows page not found.

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

Is it true that RFI for purchase of 110 fighter aircraft was released today. The usual bandalbaaz are quoting from the RFI, but there is no govt owned website where this RFI is being reflected .

Thanks

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR" Here's the RFI:

http://indianairforce.nic.in/sites/default/files/RFI_Fighter_Aircraft.pdf

Ram Bharadwaj said...

prasun,

you had claimed that the idea of locally assembling a MMRCA is cost prohibitive and ruled out. Then suddenly we find this RFI. The Single engine fighter was scrapped. What is the IAF's logic behind this current RFI? Are they facilitating the entry for RAFALE?

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

1. the new RFI makes me feel that this government has lost its mind and had cancelled the previous Rafale jet deal just for political one-upmanship and few brawny points. the new RFI makes me believe the Rafale may well be out of race and there is no possibility of F16/fALCON21 either

2a. regarding the answer you gave to AMOGHAVARSHA i think you are being judgmental towards UPA 1/2. in reference to 2009/12 where you said 'especially in the go-go years of 2009-12' and thje policy paralysis you have talked about why do you forget that the economics of 2009-2012 were dominated by the aftermath of 2008 meltdown that pushed many Asian and South American nations on the brink of collapse.

2b. For me it was the economic policies of Manmohan Singh and team that helped India tide over crisis and the steps taken for economic revival were supposed to reap benefits from 2014 but UPA couldnt market itself and lost to BJP online campaign led by shit ass Amit Malviya, who sometimes belches out utter trash and even preempted the EC on Karnatak election. It cant be UPA 1/2 responsibility alone if crony capitalist fleece the public and banks. That this NDA2 govt also plays ball with crony capitalist is evident from below link

https://www.news18.com/news/india/rs-2-4-lakh-crore-loans-written-off-in-over-three-years-govt-tells-parliament-1707565.html

2c. lets noT forget crude oil in 2008 was over US$ 130 but still the UPA1/2 kept petrol cost below Rs 65 as for this NDA2 govt despite the fact that crude oil is only US$68/69 has pushed petrol prices above Rs 80 in many places, but still refuse to reduce excise so can we still blame UPA1/2 for India's economic problems i think not

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

The Xeno said...

http://www.opindia.com/2018/04/dr-ambedkar-rejected-aryan-invasion-theory-with-facts-and-logic/amp/

plain_curious said...

Hi prasun ,

Has the govt lost it?? why the sudden rfi for 110 aircrafts worth @15-20 bln.. one cud have saved the hassle by sticking to 126 rafales.....is this for real or another stunt? looks like govt is trying to setup the new in comming govt in case they lose.. la rafale deal of UPA.. what will happen to tejs mk2 & Amca?


rad said...

hi prasun
do give me your opinion on the my solution for drdo!!