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Thursday, March 8, 2018

India-Seychelles Agreement On Creation Of Logistics Facility On Assomption Island, & Sabotaging Military Hardware Procurements Through ‘Investigative Journalism’

Those ‘desi patrakaars’ who have since the 1980s prided themselves as being ‘investigative journalists’ have a rather bizarre excuse for hurling accusations which goes like this: “we can neither produce any conclusive material evidence of corruption/wrongdoing, nor can we conclusively establish the motive/intent behind such purported acts, but we will still continue to make baseless allegations until perpetuity”. Be it the procurement of the Bofors FH-77B towed 155mm/39-cal howitzers, or the HDW Class 209/Type 1500 diesel-electric submarines, or the AgustaWestland AW-101 VVIP transportation helicopters, all such decisions have been labelled as being ‘tainted’ with establishing the motive for indulging in the alleged crimes, meaning what exactly prompted a foreign original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to pay bribes to India’s civilian/military decision-makers when it was a foregone conclusion that the selected products of these OEMs were the best available that were being offered to India’s armed forces. After all, a prima facie case can be made if third-class or second-class weapon systems were selected for procurement. But when the best-there-is is selected for procurement, where exactly is the need for the buyer to ask for bribes or for the seller to offer bribes?
We are once again seeing some of these ‘desi patrakaars’, in partnership with some foreign media houses, indulge in an almost-identical charade in the name of ‘investigative journalism’, with the target this time being air-defence artillery cannons. And here is what is being peddled:



The target this time is the Switzerland-based Rheinmetall Air Defence AG (RAD), formerly known as Oerlikon-Contraves, whose military-industrial partnership with the MoD-owned Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) dates back to the 1970s when about 200 Super Fledermaus fire-control systems of the former were licence-built for the Indian Army.
By mid-2005, all three armed services of India had a requirement for a new-generation anti-aircraft cannon, for which the Rheinmetall Oerlikon-Contraves 35mm x 228 KDG revolver cannon emerged as the best available option. It is a gas operated cannon with a link-less feed system. It combines a high firepower with precise accuracy. The cannon is completely remote-controlled, the integrated fibr-optic sensor system supports the fully digital control of the cannon. Its naval version is the Millennium Gun or Rheinmetall GDM-008—a close-in weapon system designed by RAD for mounting on warships and using AHEAD ammunition. There also exists a turret-mounted version of this cannon—called LANCE—that can be mounted on both tracked infantry combat vehicles (ICV) and wheeled armoured personnel carriers (APC).
While the Indian Army requires close to 2,000 35mm x 228 KDG cannons worth US$1.7 billion to replace its existing Bofors L-70 cannons, the Indian Air Force requires about 430 of them worth about $400 million for close-in base air-defence. The Indian Army also requires about 500 Lance turrets (developed by Germany’s Rheinmetall DeTec) for its Kestrel 8 x 8 APCs, which are to be manufactured by TATA Motors Ltd. By early 2010 the 35mm x 228 KDG, the GDM-008 and the Lance had officially emerged as clear favourites for the MoD’s HQ Integrated defence Staff (IDS) for an obvious reason:  all three products had an exceptionally high degree of commonality and could therefore be series-produced in India by the MoD-owned Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) at extremely cost-effective rates with a high quantum (more than 75%) of indigenised sub-systems and components—an option which no other global competitor had to offer at that time.
In fact, so confident was TATA Motors then that it even showcased scale-models of its future tracked ICV concept and the Kestrel APC at the DEFEXPO 2012 expo in Pragati Maidan in Delhi, with both scaled-models being shown equipped with the Lance turret. Also shown was a TATA Motors 8 x 8 HMV with 35mm x 228 KDG revolver cannon. The accompanying fire-control system was to be the DRDO-developed Atulya.
However, tragedy struck on March 5, 2012 when the MoD announced that RAD was henceforth barred from doing business with India’s OFB (the gazetted order from the MoD had mentioned that RAD was  barred from further business dealings with the MoD for a period of 10 years w.e.f. 11.4.2012). Thus, RAD was  placed on a MoD blacklist, the reason for this being a CBI investigation into allegations of corruption levelled against the then Director General of the OFB, Sudipta Ghosh. And although the trial against Ghosh and his associates is still underway, RAD has still not been charged with any crime in this case. 
In fact, RAD has challenged its blacklisting in the Delhi High Court. That trial, too, is still underway and unless the trial court rules in RAD’s favour, or the MOD pro-actively decides to remove RAD from its blacklist, RAD will continue to be shunned by the MoD despite the absence of any criminal charges bein g registered against this OEM, i.e. a truly Indian definition of ‘ease-of-doing-business in-country’!
Incidentally, for base air-defence the Pakistan Air Force in the previous decade had already acquired the 35mm x 228 KDG revolver cannon and a related fire-control system, which together is known as the Skyshield-35 system.

141 comments:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-flounders-in-attracting-fdi-in-defence-production-gets-only-rs-1-17-crore-in-4-years/articleshow/63207644.cms

Rajesh Mishra said...

Perhaps the MMRCA-2 exercise is to push the France on the remaining Rafale and to push the Russia on the FGFA. What in your revered opinion?

IndianRadarEnthusiast said...

Hi Prasun,
Has IAF got all deliveries of second C-130J batch? Do we have 12 now?
With regards to 35mm x 228 KDG, any other comparable systems for IAF,IA or any discussions in MoD to allow RAD

The Xeno said...

https://thewire.in/230585/in-embarrassing-leak-details-of-top-secret-india-seychelles-military-agreement-made-public/amp/

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qOwG9JhRZxE (leaked agreements linked below the video)

Your comments.

Himanshu Kumar said...

Sir give us information about RudraM-II ASM, RudraM-III and SLCM. And about ATGM for Arjun mk-2, CLGM is 2nd gen. while funds allocated in 2016 represent DRDO is working on new 3rd gen ATGM.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/us-blames-indian-ammo-for-m777-ultra-light-howitzer-gun-snag-test-today-5085991/

More revelations about OP Falcon of 1986: there were firefights between the IA & PLA!

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/army-officer-scales-peak-stumbles-across-outpost-named-after-her-dad/articleshow/63225642.cms

ashish gautam said...

Sir, why on ALH-WSI version HAL didn't used wings like that of those used in LCH? WHY MI17 Kind of design is used to mount weapons?
2) Can ALH-WSI & LCH carry upto 16 Helina ATGM or 76 Hydra rockets on all 4 hard points?

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, what is Supersonic missile assisted release of torpedo (SMART)? as replied by the Madam Defence Minister in Parliament ?

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

1. This article in today's Indian Express says - The belief that an increase of fire power on the LoC will impact Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism is illusory. Is this true ?


http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/pakistan-ceasefire-violation-line-of-control-jammu-and-kashmir-5088543/#.Wp_1BnJmVaw.twitter

2. Can you please clear the mist surrounding the purchase of FGFA/Su 57 from Russia ? Some desi patrakars (like the one I mentioned in your previous post) is saying FGFA won't happen. Some others are saying that Russia has offered a "Silent Version" of the Su 35 to India. So will the FGFA purchase go ahead according to the information that you have ?

Thanks,

Sujoy

Anonymous said...

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/a-7-5-billion-pipeline-has-surprise-patrons-taliban-militants/articleshow/63232518.cms

ashish gautam said...

Sir, Also please tell about anvesha missile system

Anik said...

China can now potentially blind or destroy India’s satellites?

https://theprint.in/national-security/chinese-satellite-centre-tibet-track-blind-indian-eyes-sky/39543/

Anonymous said...

Sir do you think is there any foreign hand(china)

https://thewire.in/230585/in-embarrassing-leak-details-of-top-secret-india-seychelles-military-agreement-made-public/amp/

Anna

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANIK: LoLz! That FAKE NEWS is written by a nerd who never ceases to come across as a clown. Firstly, it isn’t a satellite tracking station at all. Secondly, it is the Shiquanhe Observatory located at 32°19′N 80°01′E. In 2014, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences chose Ngari in west Tibet for a research on gravitational waves. Since the Observatory sits on a ridge over 5,000 metres above sea level, the air around the area is very thin and dry. Also, there is less water vapour in the atmosphere. Construction started for the first space telescope, code-named Ngari No.1, 30km south of Shiquanhe Town in Ngari Prefecture, The telescope, located 5,250 metres above sea level, detects and gathers precise data on primordial gravitational waves in the Northern Hemisphere. It is expected to be fully operational by 2021. The second phase involves a series of telescopes, code-named Ngari No. 2, to be located about 6,000 metres above sea level. The budget for the two-phase Ngari gravitational wave observatory is an estimated 130 million Yuan (US$18.8 million). The project was initiated by the Institute of High Energy Physics, National Astronomical Observatories, and Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, among others. Ngari, with its high altitude, clear sky, and minimal human activity, is one of the world's best spots to detect tiny twists in cosmic light. Hence, the Ngari observatory will be among the world's top primordial gravitational wave observation bases, alongside the South Pole Telescope and the facility in Chile's Atacama Desert. Gravitational waves were first proposed by Albert Einstein’s theory of general relativity 100 years ago, but it wasn’t until 2016 that scientists with the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory announced proof of the waves’ existence, spurring fresh research interest among the world's scientists. China has also announced its own gravitational wave research plans, which include the launch of satellites and setting up FAST, a 500-metre aperture spherical radio telescope in southwest China's Guizhou Province.

To ANNA & THE XENO: Foreign hand for doing what? The agreement with Seychelles that I have uploaded above clearly says that it will be a logistics support facility aimed at combatting trans-national crimes. In other words, it won’t be like Diego Garcia or Gan Island. And if you read my article published in FORCE magazine’s March 2018 issue, you will realise that China’s military support facility at Obock (next to the Doraleh Multipurpose Port), on Djibouti’s northern coast, which is now manned by a PLAN Marines contingent, is not meant for carrying out expeditionary war at all. Because, contrary to popular speculation, the PLAN’s Marine Corps will not be used as amphibious assault formations seeking to capture and hold island-based territories (those roles being the preserve of the PLA Army’s shore-based mechanised amphibious assault formations). Instead, the Corps has been configured as a rapid intervention force that is tasked with the rescue of Chinese citizens residing abroad whenever they are vulnerable to domestic instabilities or armed insurrections in their host countries. The same holds true for Gwadar in Pakistan. And that’s why the PLAN’s Marine Corps is being expanded from 3 to 6 Brigades & they are being trained in Xinjiang for conducting even high-altitude rapid intervention force projections, meaning they will be deployed in future even in those Latin American countries that have high quantums of Chinese citizens working there as expatriate workers.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHISH GAUTAM, SUMANTA NAG & HIMANSHU KUMAR: Here are the explanations:

Standoff Anti-tank Guided Missile (SANT) is the MALE-UAV launched version of the HELINA. .

CLGM is the 120mm ant-helicopter laser-guided missile for use from Arjun MBTs. Its infantry-launched version is called SAMHO but it has been rejected by the IA. The CLGM is not an ATGM, but more like the Russian INVAR anti-helicopter projectile.

MPATGM is 3rd-generation also carries the name AMOGHA-1 given by BDL.

SMART is exactly like the Novator 91RE1 and 91RTE2 are anti-submarine missiles.

ANVESHA is the TD project name for developing a MMW seeker-equipped version of the HELINA:

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pg4rOk7sd44/Vv8KuaB-_KI/AAAAAAAAKh4/KZNXEDVe5ZkkMIu8C-0u8nsJSJ8dTe8EA/s1600/HELINA%2BATGM%2527s%2Bexperimental%2BW-band%2BMMR%2Bseeker%2Bbuilt%2Bby%2BAnanth%2BTechnologies%2BLtd.jpg

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ghb-jyowK5I/Vv8KxpqeUfI/AAAAAAAAKh8/GU-5lpG4FVoc8NhfFAdHLS0eI_7B7qsvw/s1600/HELINA%2BATGM%2527s%2Bexperimental%2BW-band%2BMMR%2Bseeker.jpg

If successful, it will also be developed as the naval NASM.

RudraM-II & RudraM-II refer to efforts by the DRDO to arm the Rudra helicopter gunships with A) 20-barrel B-8M-1 pods for firing 80mm S-8 & 122mm unguided rockets; & B) five-barrel B-13L pods that can fire S-13 unguided rockets. These pods & rockets are available in mlarge numbers with the IAF since they are also used by MiG-21s & Mi-25/Mi-35 attack helicopters. Such rockets can be used for rendering immediate air-support at standoff distances ranging from 1.5km till 4km.

Dhruvastra is the fire-control system for the HELINA that can be fired from twin-tube & quad-tube launchers.

To INDIAN RADAR ENTHUSIAST: Yes, all of them have been delivered. Presentl;y, there’s nothing comparable to the 35mm x 228 KDG. The RAD-developed system is so versatile that it can be used by armies, navies & air forces. Hence, it also offers the lowest life-cycle costs & greatly enhances hardware standardisation.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: 1) It is a totally flawed analysis since it completely fails to analyse the PA’s woes at a time when it is confronting a 4-front scenario along the Iran-Pakistan border, the Durand Line, the Radcliffe Line & the LoC, plus the internal intelligence-based counter-terror operations under OP RADD-UL-FASSAD. What it means is that the PA is completely over-stretched & therefore all leave for rest-n-recuperation has been reduced & thus when any soldier is operationally deployed for long durations, demoralisation automatically sets in & this in turn puts enormous psychological pressure on any army & saps its will to fight a war of attrition. 2) The Super Su-30MKI variant will be far far superior to any Su-35 variant, rest assured. The FGFA/PMF project is VERY MUCH in active mission-mode, rest assured.

To RAJESH MISHRA: Don’t go by rumours pertaining to MMRCA-2 or SEF or FGFA/PMF. Kindly wait for the CAS of the IAF to issue appropriate clarifications at the appropriate time. Meanwhile, the ‘Pappu’ unashamedly continues to ignore the lessons of history & remains totally clueless about India’s post-independence history:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPg7EceZNX4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFM6m41LUMM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gck46GfxtAM

Ludwig said...

Hello Sir, I hope you had a good holi.
1) What do you think of Macron's visit? Can we see any movement on follow on Rafales and follow on scorpenes? Will the follow-on subs have DRDO AIP on them?
2) A document recently emerged on the internet showing some projects underway by DRDO, one of them was "LRSAM for navy IAC". Is this Barak-8 ER or a different missile. What will be its specs?

capri4791 said...

Prasun , how true is this.. http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2018/03/pakistan-has-just-tested-ultimate.html

Pakis having MIRV missiles?

ashish gautam said...

VMT sir for your reply.
Kindly share detailed information about pacts signed with France today.
Thanks.

Anonymous said...

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/airbus-projects-demand-for-1750-new-aircraft-in-india-over-next-20-years/article22997724.ece

do i see Airbus manufacturing facility coming up in India like Boeing has setup in china

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LUDWIG: 1) The DRDO-develop AIP module has the exact structural dimensions as the hull of the Scorpene SSK. But the AIP module still has to demonstrate its full endurance limits & so far only 14 days of non-stop operation has been validated. This will now be stretched to 27 days & 35 days—a process that will take another 2 years to fully establish the module’s technical service life. Until this milestone is achieved, no more new-build SSKs will be acquired. 2) What LR-SAM is to the IN, that very same missile is referred to as MR-SAM by the IA & IAF. The Barak-8ER will be the IAF-specific LR-SAM.

To CAPRI4791: Those are China-supplied MIRVs for China-supplied IRBMs—plain & simple.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: The pact signed between France & India today is similar to the LEMOA agreement inked between the US & India. But France has a large naval base & port in Reunion Island & it can be seen here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxNfqW-eqf8

The agreement for the protection of classified information pertains to cooperation between the navies of the 2 countries in areas of naval/air force ESM/SIGINT/ELINT, i.e. the 2 countries will exchange information gathered through such means from their respective static installations & airborne/underwater platforms operating in the IOR. Dedicated secure SATCOM-based data-links will be used for the exchange of such data, which will greatly enhance inter-operability between the armed forces of both countries & will also drastically reduce reaction times of the 2 armed forces when responding to any type of security crisis within the IOR. Since all these fall under the ambit of the Union Cabinet Secretariat of the PMO, this agreement was inked by NSA Ajit Doval from the Indian side.

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

Given the fact that unlike most of us, you get opportunities to touch base with DRDO directly, I would like to know what are the various projects that DRDO is currently working in that would require a turbojet engine ?

Thanks & Regards,

VIKRAM

Anonymous said...

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.northeasttoday.in%2Fpla-bomb-expert-arrested-in-manipur%2F&h=ATPnWMO3Q-JBOSwW1EwKag5tHIpo0RkfATUGZFicBqu89hiCymQyLIbh6oC764yyXHKgrWn1f3IqfaBC7pskE5xFl5crjrrBlSVuPhXovqlrPWPC6pezhPvycqSlSiH2hPcEM5pXU2M8onbyBngN

This clearly shows China is interfering. I hope that India is not taking it lightly and repaying it with the same coin.
Tushar

ashish gautam said...

Oh ok thank you for the information. NDTV has claimed that the French defense minister wanted India to announce a follow-on order of additional 36 Rafaels. But Indian officials said that follow on will b ordered only after first tranche is delivered, your take on this please.
2) How about agreement and declaration of M88 kaveri engine???
3) what is the status of 120km varient of indigenous MBRL?
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/france-wanted-india-to-announce-talks-for-another-36-rafale-fighters-1822171?amp=1&akamai-rum=off

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: Turbojets are nowadays used only for subsonic anti-ship cruise missiles & pilotless target drones & therefore are reqd only for very limited applications.

TUSHAR: LoLz! Just because the term PLA was used you've ASSUMED that it is China's PLA! Didn't I state several times before that "assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups"?

Here's the truth: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is a Meitei insurgent outfit in Manipur with a political wing, the Revolutionary People's Front (RPF). The PLA was established under the leadership of N. Bisheswar Singh in September 1978. Nowadays it is engaged only in acts of extortion & kidnappings.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: 1) Yes, only NDTV & INDIA TODAY & their resident 'desi bandalbaazes' have been spreading such FAKE NEWS over the past 24 hours. In reality, the reqmt is for 44 additional Rafales off-the-shelf. 2) That will take a long time to fructify because first SAFRAN/SNECMA Moteurs will haVe to certify that all the GTRE-developed components are compatible with the M88 turbofan's engine core & this can be done only after extensive ground-tests & airborne tests, which will typically take at least another 7 years at best. Secondly, unless SAFRAN/SNECMA Moteurs gives the green-light to GTRE for fabrication of such components tailor-made for the M88's engine core, no production of such components will take place. This will take at least 2 years to achieve. So 2 + 7 will bring one to 9 years, or 2027 when such a turbofan will be available for flight-tests on an operational aircraft's airframe. This effectively rules out this turbofan for the LCA-AF Mk.2 if one is to believe that the LCA-AF Mk.2's prototypes will start rolling out from 2022 for the airworthiness certification programme. Hence, GE's F414 turbofans will have to be used for the flight-testing of the LCA-AF Mk.2's prototypes. 3) That's very far away. First let the 60km-range Pinaka-2 be readied for service-induction.

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
Here a news:
'Broker' Pakistan now aspiring to sell Gilgit-Baltistan to China: European Union expert
http://www.wionews.com/south-asia/broker-pakistan-now-aspiring-to-sell-gilgit-baltistan-to-china-european-union-expert-35306

Your take please.

TheHundred said...

https://newsclick.in/ongoing-defence-reforms-may-not-solve-indian-armys-ammunition-shortage-problem

To manufacture ammunition, ideally they should give us five years’ load – what they call “roll-on-indent”. Only then can we procure material, procure chemicals and manufacture all these things. These things are not readily available in the market. And nobody produces and keeps it in the showroom. So, we have to tell even the private players who are involved in this in advance – because there is no customer for these products other than the ordnance factories.

Until and unless you place an order for them, they will not produce these chemicals, because these are all banned items. Many people who criticise us do not understand these practical problems,” Srikumar said.

“Now I will give you a simple example. Take the case of the ammunition box, the production of which has now been outsourced with the claim that it is a “non-core” item. Now see what happens. The Ordnance Factory places an order on these private players for the ammunition boxes. But they don’t supply the boxes. The reason they give is something like, “When we took the order, the price of steel was this much, but when we started doing the work, steel prices have gone up. So we cannot supply at the original rate.

So ultimately Ordnance Factories have stopped producing ammunition box, and private players are also not supplying. The produced ammunition remains in the factory; you cannot despatch it.

TheHundred said...

While we dream of FGFA and MMRCA-2...

https://theprint.in/national-security/year-indian-air-force-doesnt-enough-funds-pay-past-purchases/40082/

The IAF has been allocated Rs 35,755 crore for the next fiscal year, a sum that top officials say falls well short of the amount it has to pay for purchases made in the past few years, including for systems such as the Rafale fighter jets, Apache attack choppers and Chinook heavy lift helicopters.

All these aircraft are to be delivered by 2019-2020, but part payments need to be made every year as they go through the production cycle in France and the US, and training and associated activities commence from the Indian side.

ashish gautam said...

Hahaha I was expecting that they must b spreading farzi fake news, that's asked u for clarification on Matter. VMT for it.
Please tell me about science behind this issue
"Why attack helicopters don't carry large amount of ammunition on their wings? Like 16*4 ATGM or 8 pods of 70/80mm rockets (19-20 each pod) on 4 hard points.
2) If their wings loading capacity is increased & some other change is fuselage design is made for ex side by side sitting arrangements, optimum engine power availability, will they b capable of carrying it?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To THE HUNDRED: LoLz! That ‘Union Leader’ is either living in the Neanderthal Age, or is hopelessly ignorant. Roll-On orders have always been placed AFTER 2012. Only the period varies, i.e. 3 years or 5 years. Secondly, DPSUIs were always authorised to hedge the contract values to guard against commodity price increases or fluctuations in foreign exchange rates for fixed-price contracts, whereas private-sector companies were NEVER allowed such adjustments in the bidding process. That’s one of the main reasons why private-sector shipyards are making losses. Thirdly, the world-trend today is to use ammo storage boxes & BMCS storage boxes with composites-based materials & not steel. Fourthly, today almost everyone is producing insensitive munitions, i.e. munitions made with chemicals that are not affected by temperature fluctuations. Fifthly, & most importabtly, for as long as any artillery round/projectile is built to NATO specifications it does not matter who the manufacturer/OEM is. For example, a 155mm round & its BMCS modules should produce the same results no matter where it is built, be it in China or South Korea or Singapore or the US, the UK, France or Sweden or Germany etc etc. So, when the Indian MoD specifies that an imported howitzer should be able to fire a Made-in-India 155mm round & BMCS modules, then by implication the MoD is globally admitting that OFB does not produce 155mm rounds to the same specs/standards that the rest of the world adheres to, meaning OFB-made products are unique (anokhaa) & are likely to produce totally different results. And this constitutes the GREATEST PROOF about serious QC/QA deficiencies found among OFB-produced munitions. And the MoD openly admits to this everytime it lays out this ridiculously outrageous precondition to the suppliers of imported artillery howitzers! If the OFB wants to get rid of such stigmas, then it should insist that the MoD immediately stop issuing such preconditions in those RFPs.tenders that solicit for bids pertaining to procurements of artillery rounds & their BMCS charge modules. Also, no OEM will be stupid enough to develop & produce field artillery howitzers suitable only for OFB-made ammo. So now do you see who is the pot that’s calling the kettle black? Hence, stay away from such brain-dead stories emanating from dubious sources whose only aim is to make India look like the world’s laughing stock.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Of course attack helicopters like AH-64, Tigre, Ka-50, Ka-52 & Mi-28 all carry 16 ATYGMs plus AAMs for self-protection. Even the LCH will carry such loads in future since the quad launchers are still being developed. The arming of every attack helicopter depends on its missions, i.e. it is a matter of weapons-to-target matching. For example, if the target is a UAV then unguided rockets or guided ATGMs will be useless. Similarly, for straffing purposes, ATGMs & AAMs will be useless.

Kaustav said...

Prasunda, Tha upcoming HAL IPO, would it be a good investment, their future orders seem to be all tentative at best, though other activities are good. Please share your valuable input on the topic.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

When even Pakistan has MIRVed missiles (albeit China supplied), is'nt it imperative for us to move towards testing and deploying MIRVed missiles as fast as possible ? Too minimal an arsenal will undermine credibility. How many years will it take for MIRV testing to start on our side ?

Satyaki

ashish gautam said...

Ok thank you for it but my question was little bit different from what u answered, I meant that is it possible to design a helicopter which can carry upto 8 ATGMs on 1 hard point, totaling 32 on 4 hard points????
Or carrying 2 pods of 19/20*80/70mm rocket pods on 1 hard point totaling 8 such pods on 4 hard points carrying 140-160 rockets on 4 hard points along with>1000 rounds of cannon ammo.

Anonymous said...

As we know that Indian news doesn't always represents the way the government is working or thinking. Right now if we follow the news we will realize that India and China are heading towards a collision course.
Is it possible that in future China and India will be allies? I mean this current misunderstanding between the countries is just an eyewash for something big? What are your thoughts on this?
Also you told that an airfield campaign will be launched against Pakistan this march. But nothings happening.

Tushar

capri4791 said...

prasun,

1 - what would super sukhoi specs look like. Also will India opt for both super sukhoi & FGFA or will it be either of them?
2- what engine has been been identified for tejas mk1a as there is no offcial communication of the same. Also what would be the approx load it will carry? Will it have the elbit cockpit ng?
3 which aircraft has more chances of winning the tender for IN? F-18 ash or rafale

Jyoti Sen said...

https://twitter.com/livefist/status/972699491320188928?s=20 Dada yours take on this?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: LoLz! Such ad hoc IPOs won’t bring in any meaningful transformation within HAL. Instead, if a truly meaningful public listing of HAL were to be undertaken, only then will it emerge as a multi-faceted giant like the TATA, RELIANCE or L & T. Only after this will HAL be able to forge numerous types of industrial partnerships with both global and Indian military-industrial entities & this is the only way that FDI will automatically flow into the military-industrial sector. This will also enable HAL to negotiate & obtain ithrough-life ntegrated logistics support contracts from countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia etc etc. HAL can then also team up with the Boeings, Airbuses, Embraers, Bombardiers, United helicopters Corp JSCs, GEs, Pratt & Whitneys, SAFRAN/SNECMA Moteurs & United Engine Corp to jointly set up not only commercial aircraft/engine MRO centres, but aklso the numerous colleges & institutes that are reqd to churn out qualified & proficient the lakhs of human resources like licenced aircraft engineers & technicians reqd by India’s commercial aviation markets. A similar huge demand exists for air-traffic controllers. Presently, all commercial aircraft destined for even undergoing periodic B, C & D MRO checks are going to Sri lanka or Singapore or Malaysia. So imagine the amount of fuel burnt whenever any such aircraft has to go abroad & come back empty!

To SATYAKI: Isn’t India too moving ahead in this area? Or are you unaware about it? I had already explained several times before that India cannot undertake any MIRV testing unless she first deploys a fleet of tracking vessels. Right now only 1 such vessel is being built by HSL at Vizag, while Pakistan has no such vessel & therefore all talk of that country possessing MIRV technologies is total bullshit. It only has MIRV capabilities that are imposted off-the-shelf from China.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Sure such a helicopter can be built or even existing 10-tonne or 12-tonne helicopters can carry such weapons loads that you desire, but such helicopters will fly only like stones & will be devoid of any manoeuvrability! Does anyone wish to sacrifice manoeuvrability over a battlefield that will be strewn with AAA of all types? Only if one is fighting against a band of insurgents or fuerrillas that has ZERO AAA assets can such heavyily armed helicopters be employed.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

TUSHAR: China & India being allies? That’s akin to petrol being mixed with diesel! And what makes you believe that China & India have misunderstandings? Didn’t you read President Xi’s recent speech in which he had mocked the democratic processes existing worldwide & had labelled them as being fruitless & chaotic? If that is the view of the President of the PRC, it then means that he is openly declaring that China’s one-party totalitarian system of governance is far superior to its democratic counterparts & by consequence a one-party state is far more superior to a democratic welfare state. Which in turn means all the world’s democracies are less intelligent or less efficient than the one-party state of PRC & therefore China is the world’s only country that is endowed with superior all-knowing wisdom. So, can anyone reason with such a tunnel-visioned worldview? Therefore, this is not a ‘misunderstanding’ as you’ve put it, rather it is the stark writing on the wall which says China will look at/treat every democracy of this world with utter distain & contempt. And anyone who refuses to acknowledge this is just playing childhood games like ‘hide-n-seek’ in which the children put their palms on their eyes & say “I see nothing”.

To CAPRI4791: The estimated specs were already outlined on a thread in this blog back in 2011. Low-observable FGFA/PMF can’t be compared to the Super Su-30MKI. Engine for Tejas Mk.1A will be the SAME as that on the Mk.1. Hence no changes in weapons load. Cockpit-NG was never meant for Tejas Mk.1A. No such tender will be released by the IN for a new type of carrier-based MRCA, rest assured.

To JYOTI SEN: LoLz! Such fake news is dished out whenever paid advertisements are solicited for. In reality, the Igla-S was introduced into India back in 2006 & Vietnam was the second export customer of Russia for the Igla-S. Presently, Russia’s Kolomna-nased Konstruktorskoye Byuro Mashynostroyeniya (KBM) Research & Production Corp is offering the 9K333 Verba:

https://www.kbm.ru/en/production/pzrk/803.html

Along with it, the Strelets launcher is on offer as well:

https://www.kbm.ru/en/production/pzrk/pupzrk/365.html

The Strelets is also available for attack helicopters as an air-to-air system.

For totally unexplained reasons, there was no global bidding when it was decided to arm the Dhruv ALH with air-to-ground rockets & AAMs. Nor was any R & D effort made by the DRDO to develop new-generation rocket pods for firing the OFB-made SNEB rockets that have been licence-produced since the 1960s & these are fired from Matra Type 155 SNEB rocket launcher pods that have armed the Mustere IVAs, Jaguars, Sea Harriers & Mirage 2000s! Here are the OFB-produced SNEB rockets:

http://ofbindia.gov.in/products/data/ammunition/rb/1.htm

http://ofbindia.gov.in/products/data/ammunition/rb/2.htm

Instead, without open tendering, for the Rudra, LCH & LUH, the following from Thales Belgium SA (formerly Forges de Zeebrugge - FZ) was selected:

http://fz.be/products.php?p=3

So, we can then only conclude that the DRDO, NAL, CSIR etc etc are all experts in developing ICBMs, SLBMs, subsonic cruise missiles, BVRAAMs & BMD interceptors, while at the same time all of these institutions combined are 100% incapable of developing new-generation rocket pods capable of firing 68mm rockets!!!

Anonymous said...

Sir I would love to learn about what is the exact relevance of AAA versus vshorads/qrsams in today's battlefield? I mean drones and helicopters can launch PGM/missiles from distance of 7+ km etc and stay away safely from these?

Also, sir how does number of barrels affect accuracy and other capabilities? These are single barreled, as opposed to 2/4 barrel AA guns of older designs? Is it due to advancements in fire control and tracking systems?

Can LANCE turrets also function in same role as 30 mm autocannons of available ICVs or will they become dedicated SPAAG?

VSJ

ashish gautam said...

Ok thank you very much for clarification regarding designing and it's short comings.

jasss gill said...

sir when iaf start upgrading su 30 to super sukhoi I heard long time ago but nothing happens

Anup said...

Sir,
Off the topic question.
Indian Railway implementing DFC.As per there all project implementation is it one the most manage project in India?
12000HP loco ready & fast work progress.

Rajesh Mishra said...

and now the Chinese President Xi Jin Ping has converted himself in to the lifelong epical emperor Jin of the evil and epical empire of the Red Dragon, also classified as the degenerated Buddhist Empire of Jin.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

The french always had exactly one tracking ship (equipped with MOTR) in service, the Poincare from 1964-1992 and the Monge currently. Is it possible that one tracking ship could suffice once outfitted ? If so, MIRV testing could begin in the next two years or so.

Kritavarma

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

Defence Minister, gave this speech today at the AMMO INDIA conference held in Delhi (organised by FICCI).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKBekxoyoaM

FICCI gave her the following 5 suggestions

1.Reduce procurement lead times: Multiple RFIs and RFPs have been issued in the past with no result in the arms and ammunition category.



2.RFP must outline complete roadmap: It would not suffice to simply issue RFPs exclusive to private industry. Complete roadmap for an ammunition RFP should be outlined, one with hand-holding and guidance to the private industry from the Government of India, (including agencies like the DGQA, the end user and DRDO).



3.Long-term covenant: This should be part of any proposal for ammunition manufacturing, once you place an order on a company then for next 10 years they would be the source for that product (in order to get ROI on infrastructure investment).


4. Industrial licensing process should be streamlined:

DIPP has an online process now but MHA (which issues licence for small arms and ammunition) is an offline process
Documents required need to be clearly stated, since the documents stated on the site and forms do not seem to suffice

5.Establish an Ombudsman for Industrial Licence: Regular feedback mechanism and intimation to the industry on details lacking in their application and well as status


Do you believe these suggestions are correct and exhaustive ?

Thanks & Regards,

VIKRAM

Singularity said...

Things seem to be getting more interesting with the UFO videos recently released.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=96&v=CNzMyVhC5a0

Why is the sudden surge in publicly sharing previously classified information? Preparation for a big disclosure, or simply a misinformation campaign aimed at distraction?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VSJ: Yes, UAVs & helicopters & even combat aircraft can launch standoff PGMs but AAA cannons & MANPADS/VSHORADS launchers if properly camouflaged can always spring surprises since thery can stay visually hidden in a dispersed manner so as to offer a dedicated kill-zone while the hostiler airborne platforms are still en route towards their targets. Then there are hostile targets in peacetime like terrorists using ultralights & flying low to areas just across the border. AAA cannons are also the cheapest options for shooting down loitering UAVs. No of barrels does not affect accuracy, instead it increases the volume of space of the lethal zone. The same applies to proximity fuzes used by high-rate-of-fire AAA rounds. LANCE turrets, just like the turret of the ZSU-23-4 Schilka or @S6 Tunguska, can remotely operate & engage both ground-based & aerial targets with HE-fragmentation & HE-armour-piercing rounds,

To JASSS GILL: It should commence by next year.

To ANUP: There are 2 dedicated freight corridors (DFC), the North-South & the East-West. Presentl;y, both passenger & goods trains are using the same tracks that lead to excessive wear-n-tear of the tracks & this in turn has been causing increasing no of accidents. Once the DFCs become operational the existing tracks will be used exclusively by passenger trains & no of accidents will drastically reduce. For the DFC-specific trains, the WAG-12 locomotives will be powered by 12,000bhp GE-Alstom diesel engines that were selected & ordered back in 2012. 800 will be built over the next 11 years. Here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5jxEPLhtDU&t=3s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4WS0ZZ5_d4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2HnIze66Mw

And here’s the video on the DFCs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xblzCXk2tUk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqbYDXFT3ZU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NhTyap_-Co

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3vJGrNyJXs

East-West DFC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJLWeCF_xSo

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: Some clarity is emjerging at last on the issue of imported MRCAs:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/iaf-speeds-up-hunt-for-new-fighter-jets-to-add-muscle/story-kfvxMzNtsamshNd7daPGtN.html

What this news-report does not state is that earlier GTRE plans for co-developing a new turbofan with SAFRAN/Snecma Moteurs with the latter’s engine core for the LCA-AF Mk.2 have now been shelved in favour of developing such a turbofan for the AMCA. This will give enough time (at least 8 years are reqd) for both parties to come up with a mature turbofan by 2028, thus enabling the LCA-AF Mk.2—powered by the F414-GE-INS6--to be available for flight-testing & series production in 2022 & 2026, respectively. Meanwhile, Dassault Aviation wi9ll also now be able to come up with a comprehensive industrial partnership offer for co-developing the AMCA since Dassault does not have any business plans for developing a 5th-gen MRCA on its own, & will therefore relish the prospect of teaming up with India for the 5th-gen AMCA on a risk-sharing basis & hence there will be no conflict of business interests of either Dassault Aviation or HAL. Concurrently, it will; enable Dassault Aviation to make lower-priced quotes for follow-on Rafale MMRCA tranches destined for the IAF. If this is achieved, then Dassault will easily be able to out-bid (i.e. emerge as L-1) all other competitors from the US, Europe & Scandinavia due to the obvious business & industrial synergies of the military-industrial aspirations of both France & India. For India, on the other hand, this will be politically palatable & controversy-free, the ultimate win-win formula. Thus, it makes sense for the MoD to do away with the single-engine/twin-engine distinction & treat the entire MRCA process as a military-industrial venture & not a pure procurement process, due to which additional Rafale orders will in future become a near-confirmed possibility.

Meanwhile, this is what I had predicted in 2015:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2015/12/vvip-b777-300ers-for-iaf.html

And this is what appeared yesterday:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/pm-president-to-get-their-own-planes-by-early-2020/articleshow/63272109.cms

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: I attended yesterday’s proceedings. Today is the concluding day of the seminar & I will make detailed observations later tonight. Here are details of the conference:

International Conference on Military Ammunition: Make in India Opportunities and Challenges

March 12 – 13, 2018 | Federation House, New Delhi

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) under the Government of India’s (GoI) – ‘Make in India’ initiative is encouraging the industry to engage in the manufacture of ammunition. Currently, under the Arms Rules, 2016, GoI has opened up the ammunition manufacturing to the private sector, which until recently, was open only to the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) and Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSU). This offers tremendous opportunities for the industry to meet the ammunition requirements of our nation. The Indian private Industry is keen to leverage the opportunity and establish capacities & the capabilities for indigenous ammunition manufacture. Currently, the annual ammunition market size in India exceeds USD 1 billion and there is scope of additional annual capacity of approximately USD 250 million in private sector. Besides, domestic market there is a huge export potential. Ammunition is one of the shortlisted categories for Strategic Partnership. A minimum 10-year order book should help in the creation of a viable business plan, and the necessary investment. The present policy of ammunition manufacture juxtaposed with the volumes provides unique opportunities to the Private industry to develop the capacity and capability and engage in Joint Ventures with foreign OEMs. As such, several overseas defence companies, are already negotiating with private Indian companies to provide cutting-edge technology for manufacture of multiple ammunition programs. With the above background and to facilitate 'Make in India' initiative in Ammunition Manufacturing, Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) in association with Centre for Joint Warfare Studies (CENJOWS) is pleased to announce, “AMMO INDIA 2018” – an International Conference on Military Ammunition: Make in India Opportunities and Challenges to be held on March 12 – 13, 2018 at FICCI, Federation House, 1 Tansen Marg, New Delhi.

Objective of AMMO INDIA 2018
• Familiarize the industry with policy and regulatory issues associated with the manufacturing of Ammunition
• Comprehend the role of OFB and opportunities for the Private Sector to engage with OFB
• Get a holistic overview of the opportunities for industry in Ammunition requirements
• Bring to the foreground the role played by DRDO and technologies available for transfer to Indian industry
• Explore the potential partnerships that could emerge with FOEMs

Programme Outline Day-1
Session 1: Ammunition for Small Arms – Trends and Opportunities for Industry
Session 2: Artillery Ammunition – Programs and Projects

Programme Outline Day-2
Session 3: Tank Ammunition – Programs and Projects
Session 4: Missiles
Session 5: Fuze Manufacturing – Technology and Way Forward
Panel Discussion on “Opportunities for Industry in Ammunition Manufacturing under Make in India"

Rajesh Mishra said...

Thanx for providing the complete essence of the MMRCA-2 well in advance before it is going to be shocking to many.

Kapil said...

Prasun ji, have a few questions linked to your reply to RAJESH MISHRA

1) The Hindustan Times report says that govt plans to make those planes in India. So if Rafale emerges as L1 (or HOPEFULLY selected without a contest), will the planes be made in India or directly come from France like the first 36?

2) Will the IAF have a total of 150 (36+114) Rafales in its fleet?

3) You said Dassault has no plans of working on its own 5th gen fighter. Then what is this https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/07/14/france-and-germany-agree-to-jointly-build-new-generation-fighter-jet/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: VMT. I only identified the various pixels on display in order to piece them together so that the big, final picture emerges.

To KAPIL: 1) Arey yaar, even assembling any aircraft that is delivered in semi-knocked-down condition becomes a ‘Made in India’ product! So, if an aircraft is delivered in several parts, like the complete fuselage, complete wings & complete vertical & tail sections & all these are assembled within a day, then it becomes a ‘Made in India’ MMRCA. Therefore, please rest assured that no licenced-manufacturing will take place. The LAST MRCA of foreign design to be licence-built is the Su-30MKI. All other MRCAs of 4 or 5th gen to be built in India will be local designs, i.e. LCA-AF Mk.2 & AMCA. When the FGFA/PMF comes, it too will come in the very same manner as the Rafale. Hence, kindly get this once & for all times: no 4th gen or 5th gen MRCA of foreign design will ever be licence-built anywhere in this world except in the final-assembly lines of the respective OEMs. And that’s because the cost of setting up parallel final-assembly lines for 4th gen or 5th gen MRCAs outside the country where the OEM is based is PROHIBITIVE & therefore IMPOSSIBLE to set up. Hence, no export customer to date of either the Rafale or EF-2000 or even the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet has even considered the prospects of licence-building them. 2) It will happen in due course, rest assured. 3) LoLz! Does that news-report say anything about a 5th gen MRCA? It does not, because that partnership is about a 6th gen MRCA that will be competing against 6th gen MRCAs now being developed by the US.

buddha said...

Under these circumstances where there is prospect of both TejasMK2 and Amca with foreign partnership like that of France ...I see no room or scope for F16 to come to India as presumed earlier..
Is there any chance of police system Reformation as police often act on the will of political party rather independently.
What will be future of Maldives..Civil war or tyrannical rule.
Your opinion of life long term of chinese leader.
I feel it will create more imbalance of power in South Asia.

Anonymous said...

Sir your comments on this in our context
https://taskandpurpose.com/infantry-squad-weapons-system/

Anna

Anup said...

Dear Sir,

Thank you for reply.
LCA-AF Mk.2 any news from HAL or IAF regarding development status?
As per your reply to Mr.Kapil India developing or planing AMCA or in future should develop?

Vikram Guha said...

Thank You PrasunDa.Will look forward towards your observations related to AMMO INDIA.

Also in the video link that I posted the Defence Minister says that apparently the Defence Investor Cell website is now showing the status of future purchases. I checked every single URL related to MoD, there is no such site that shows what equipment & in what quantity the Indian Armed forces intend to buy.

Thanks,
VIKRAM

capri4791 said...

Prasun,

1-are we now abandoning single engine fighter competition all together? would it not affect Indo-US ties after all the bohemia of new found friendship? wouldn't it be useful to go for a middle weight single engine plane like the F-16AT Falcon 21 [mentioned in one of your prev
blog]along with Tejas mk2 & additional rafales. After all we would need @800 aircrafts to tackle a potential 2 front war
2- why can't india join russia in manufacturing the MC 21 & leapfrog in aerospace manufacturing. one can't expect more established ones to give more work share than russians
3 - why can't drdo plan to develop a 25- 30 seater saras for UDAN[read that drdo was planning 19 seater version & we already have dornier 228 in the same category manufactured by hal]

Srinivasa Nanduri Ramanujam said...

Hi Prasun,

Off late the news has been quite distressing when it comes to China and our MSM.

Can't figure out real vs fake news.

Per or media, hambantota is all but now a mini Hong Kong in making. Colombo financial district is nothing but proposed china town. Maldives and Nepal are chinese assets. Chinese have huge presence in Bangladesh and Myanmar. China is working with Pakistan wrt Afghanistan. Pakistan and China are trying to revive SAARC so that China can be made a full member of it. And our Army General says China has arrived.

I am sorry i know much of it is hyped beyond reality but it is a media war that china seems to have distinct advantage over us. And not to forget Bhutan and doklam. Everyone talks of conflict 2.0 and none of what is happening between India and China correctly.

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Anonymous said...

Prasun Sir,
I gave this anonymous reply (https://www.quora.com/Why-do-Indian-shipyards-take-too-much-time-to-build-warships-as-compared-to-Chinese-shipyards/answers/72856513) to following question on Quora:
" Why do Indian shipyards take too much time to build warships as compared to Chinese shipyards? "

Are my observations correct or sth else is responsible for this issue ? Whats your view ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KRITAVARMA: Tracking vessels are used for 2 types of tracking: monitoring hostile missile launches; & accurately plotting the trajectories of inbounbd missiles & their MIRVs. For the former, a solitary tracking vessel is enough & that’s why France now has only one of them. For the latter, 3 different tracking sources are reqd for accurate estimation of MIRV impact points via triangulation of 3-D plotting data. France reqd 1 vessel because it had shore-based tracking stations in the South Pacific. In India’s case, since the BMs always impact in the southern Indian Ocean, 3 tracking sensors are reqd: one in the southern Indian peninsula’s coastline, another in one of the A & N islands, and the tracking vessel floating in the southern Indian Ocean. If it is not possible to station a tracking sensor in the A & N islands, then this sensor will require a vessel for mounting, i.e. a second tracking vessel.

To BUDDHA: If rafales are ordered as per the projected reqmts of the IAF, & if the LCA-AF Mk.2’s developmental effort proceeds as I had outlined earlier, then there will be no need for the F-16s. As for Police Reforms, this is worth a good read:

http://www.prsindia.org/uploads/media/Analytical%20Report/Police%20Reforms%20in%20India.pdf

As for Maldives, unless there is widespread popular discontent & bloodshed, matters won’t improve there. India does not have to worry about the extension of China’s Presidential tenure. It is a purely internal matter connected with survival of the unpopular one-party system. It will have international ramifications only if there’s large-scale migration of Chinese citizens to other countries as refugees seeking asylum in order to escape internal persecution.

To ANUP: The airframe design is still not frozen & it will be frozen only next year.

To VIKRAM GUHA: That website is not exactly internet-based, but is an INTRANET that is accessible only to registered/licenced business entities. Meanwhile, do read these:

http://www.prsindia.org/administrator/uploads/general/1519628376_DFG%20Defence%202018-19.pdf

http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/16_Defence_41.pdf

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To CAPRI4791: 1) The only thing to be affected will be the advertisement bookings made by US-based OEMs with India-based publications & blogs! Don’t forget that the LCA-AF Mk.2s will be powered by GEAE’s F414 turbofans. 2) What makes you think the Russians will give India more workshare? Eaxctly how many MC-21s are Russian airlines buying in the first place? Can you compare their orders with those placed for airliners made by Boeing or Airbus Industrie? And only then can you estimate which OEM can offer greater workshares to Indian companies. 3) Why should DRDO develop aircraft meant for commercial air transportation?

To SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAM: LoLz! Let me guess: those rumour-mongers are the very same ones that still claim that China has a military outpost in Myanmar’s Great Coco Island! On the other hand, the CNS of IN yesterday clearly stated that China has a long supply line from southern China all the way to the IOR & therefore the balance of forces clearly does not permit the PLA Navy to engage in sea-control operations. Even better new2s is that Beijing is now talking about cooperation with India & has for now discarded all the hostile rhetoric of the type witnessed last year. This is because India has & continues to form various overlapping quasi-military sttaregic quads that are IOR-specific with ASEAN, Japan, the US, Australasia, France & some Middle East countries. Both Bhutan & Nepal can’t overlook the geographic realities & Nepal is now beginning to talk more about equidistance instead of putting all its eggs into the China basket. Both Bangladesh & Myanmar are being jointly tackled on the economic front by the In dia-Kapan combine, while Sri Lanka keeps begging In dia for rescuing the Colombo container transshipment project. China will get its fingers burnt in Afghanistan by listening to Pakistan’s advice & the US will turn the economic & military screws against Pakistan even more in the weeks to come. That’s why the US SECDEF just visited Kabul unannounced. So, the way I see it, the odds are stacked in India’s favour.

Meanwhile, do listen to what the visiting Iranian Foreign Minister said while in Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmyrVkX7n7g

financeblogger said...

Your reply to SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAM, states a youtube link wrt Iranian Foreign Minister speech while in Pakistan. The link is not working.
Request you if possible to provide an alternative to the same.

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,

Secular or religion of peace people have removed the link that you shared - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmyrVkX7n7g. Could you please share the gist of it

Thanks,
Ganesh

Anonymous said...

Sir your comments on this

https://quwa.org/2018/03/11/pakistan-navy-test-fires-land-based-anti-ship-missile/

Pakistan is testing alot of anti ship missiles like zarb,harba,babur slcm et al.,

What are they upto and how potent are these and will they affect Indian Navy's operational dynamics w.r.t pakistan and persian gulf in general.

Your views on much speculated chinese naval base in jiwani near chahbahar and gadwar.

Anna

Anonymous said...

http://www.defencenews.in/article/Maldives-crisis-an-internal-matter-like-Kashmir,-India-should-trust-us-to-resolve-it,-says-Minister-Mohamed-Shainee-536971

Do you think that China is using ISI in Maldives as it is highly unlikely by them to bring up the Kashmir issue?

Is the Maldives flare-up due to the years of neglect by RAW in that region?

Tushar

Anonymous said...


Prasunda,

This video it seems to have been removed by the person who uploaded it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmyrVkX7n7g

Kane

Anonymous said...

Sir see this-

Hackers claim to have broken into @mod_russia computers & published #Russia's #military plans of invasions into #Ukraine, #Kazakhstan, #Belarus, #Georgia & #Azerbaijan:


https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/973541337084649472?s=20

Anna

aritro data said...

1> Have your read the recent letter by army to PMO?what can we take of this?? i doubt modi will be so blind to this??

2>the recent bypolls again do not favour BJP?.time for concern??

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun, the above YouTube video has been removed.

Any other links for same?

Regards,
Anand

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FINANCEBLOGGER, GANESH, KANE & ANAND: Here's another videolink to the Iranian Foreign Minister's interview. L:sten carefully to what he said about the Kilbhushan Jadhav episode & how he exposed Pakistan's lie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSFaUydaN8Q

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANNA: The land-based ASCM fired by the PN is this:

http://trishulgroup.blogspot.in/2008/10/chinas-c-602-ascm-detailed.html

To TUSHAR: That's good news indeed, because one OIC member-state has now officially come out & said that the Kashmir issue is an internal matter of India & is not an international dispute as claimed by Pakistan.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

More reports of Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence for FY 2017-2018:

http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/16_Defence_35.pdf

http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/16_Defence_36.pdf

http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/16_Defence_38.pdf

http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/16_Defence_42.pdf

http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/16_Defence_43.pdf

Narayan said...

Prasun da, these Iranians are even bigger religious extremists than Pakistanis. Even Saudis never talk about so called unity of Muslims against the 'others'. These Iranian assholes have killed thousands of Muslims in their proxy wars yet shamlessly play the religion card. Hope KSA and Israel finish them off once and for all.

Anik said...

Truck full of Rohingya Muslims entering india via Bangladesh::
https://mobile.twitter.com/KRISHANUMITRA/status/973931089621344257

Just days before india brought back D Company man Farukh Takla, Sheikha Latifa daughter of Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Saeed Al Maktoum went missing close to Goa coast. Sheikha Latifa reportedly was being torutured by her family members, had ran away from Dubai and headed towards india.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sheikh-latifa-said-to-be-dubai-royal-missing-off-goa-men-outside-was-her-sos-1823124?amp=1&akamai-rum=off&__twitter_impression=true


TheHundred said...

https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/us-general-iran-achieved-in-five-years-in-yemen-what-it-did-in-lebanon-in-two-decades-1.708639

"Iran has extended its tentacles across the region through numerous proxies, including Lebanese Hezbollah operating in multiple countries, hardline Iranian-backed Shia militia groups (SMGs) in Iraq and Syria, and Iranian support has enabled the Houthis [in Yemen],” Mr Votel told the House Armed Services Committee. The result, he said, “is prolonging the civil war in Yemen, threatening Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and risking expansion of Yemen’s civil war into a regional conflict”.

Pratap said...

Mr Narayan, dont judge an entire people based on the behaviour of a fasicst regime. This is a common misconception that Iranian people are extremists just because their govt is. Look at recent anti regime protests when Iranians tore down banners of Ayyatullah, people even shouted anti Islam slogans https://twitter.com/SGhasseminejad/status/946475151113183232 Iran is a sponsor of terrorism but how many common Iranians have joined ISIS, Al qaida or even Shia terror groups? Think about this for a moment. Coming to KSA, the situation there is the opposite, govt is (now) moderate but general public is highly radicalised. Pakistan is a unique case where both the govt and public are drunk on radical Islam and as a result the country has turned into an Islamic hellhole.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Indeed, what is the obstacle to stationing tracking sensors in the A&N islands ? UPA era environmental rules ?

2) Looking at the byeelection results in UP today, looks like a UPA3 led by Pappu (albeit with a small cong core of <150 seats) is a certainty come 2019. What happens to programs like MIRV development in such an eventuality ? Today's INC (since the Sonia era) looks more like an anti-national organization pandering to PRC/Pak interests and getting hawala laundering services in return.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To NARAYAN & PRATAP: It is indeed true that the Shia revolution in Iran in 1979 (under which Iran officially resolved to promote & export Shia sectarian beliefs) prompted KSA to retaliate by exporting Wahhabism & Salafist teachings. Since then, what we have been witnessing are upmanships between Teheran & Royadh, with the ultimate prize being the undisputed leader of the Muslim Ummah. Consequently, i8n order to overcome its twin handicaps (1. For the Sunnis the holiest Muslim pilgrimage sites are inside KSA. 2. The holiest Shia pilgrimage sites are in Iraq), Iran has been waging psychological warfare by trying to to outdo KSA in terms of harping abiut various issues of consequence to the Muslim Ummah, especially within the OIC, since it can’t do so within the Arab League. And that’s exactly why it has become more vociferous on issues like Palestine, the Yemeni civil war, etc etc. But at the same time it is acutely aware of securing its own national interests. For instance, in that interview to GEONEWS, the Iranian Foreign Minister explained that Iran’s support to CPEC remains limited only to the linking of Gwadar to CFhabahar. At no time did he say anything about laying gas pipelines from Balochistan all the way to the Khunjerab Pass, since that will involve such a pipeline passing through PoK. Therefore, he was extremely careful about not offending India. At the same time, by only offering to link Gwadar to Chabahar, he was telling Pakistan that since there’s no chance in hell about normalisation of relations between Afghanistan & Pakistan, it will be far better for Pakistan to use the Chahbahar route for Pakistani exports meant for Central Asia via Turkmenistan (since Afghanistan will not accord land transit rights for such consignments. In other words, Iran wants Pakistani exports to become expensive & uncompetitive.

To ANIK: If it is true, then the fault clearly lies not with any state govt, but with the BSF, a Central Govt-controlled CAPF. This is just 1 example of how inefficient the Union MHA is. And as for how clueless the MoD comtinues to be, here are some pointers:

http://forceindia.net/cover-story/nightmare-on-the-lc/

http://forceindia.net/cover-story/save-our-men/

http://forceindia.net/cover-story/one-big-threat/

http://forceindia.net/cover-story/look-for-solutions/

http://forceindia.net/feature-report/discussions-and-delays/

http://forceindia.net/bottomline/politically-correct/

And finally, this explains why the Ka-226T cannot be sold to India:

http://forceindia.net/feature-report/time-for-action/

Safran Helicopter Engines (Turbomeca) can on ly export its Arrius engines for civilian versions of the Ka-226T, since France too has imposed a military embargo on Russia since April 2014. So, if Russia wants to sell the Kamov Ka-226T’s military LUH version to the IA & IAF, then it will not be able to do so if powered by Arrius engines. I hope that after this explanation, all speculation about Ka-226Ts being destined for the IA & IAF are laid to rest & are permanently buried once & for all. All ‘desi bandalbaazes’ who are totally ignorant about international law are hereby reqd to focus on this point & stop all rumour-mongering about the Ka-226T’s exports to India!!!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

IAF has “firmly committed” to 40 Tejas Mk.1s & 83 Mk.1As at present, which will come at a cost of over Rs 75,000 crore if both developmental and production costs are taken into account. But it wants the next 201 Tejas Mk.2s to be “entirely new MRCAs”

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/iaf-commits-to-324-tejas-fighters-provided-a-good-mark-2-jet-is-delivered/articleshow/63306776.cms

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Indeed, what is the obstacle to stationing tracking sensors in the A&N islands ? UPA era environmental rules ?

2) Looking at the byeelection results in UP today, looks like a UPA3 led by Pappu (albeit with a small cong core of <150 seats) is a certainty come 2019. What happens to programs like MIRV development in such an eventuality ? Today's INC (since the Sonia era) looks more like an anti-national organization pandering to PRC/Pak interests and getting hawala laundering services in return.

Kritavarma

Ankit Singh said...

Entirely new tejas would mean fully redesigning the aircraft again.
Looks like cranked delta will be the choice now and the suggestions from your earlier blog post.

Sridhar said...

Dear Sir

I have a question

If General Elections will be held at their Normal time then
what is the Point in Punishing Pakistan in April

That is One year earlier

Because if INFLATION rises after war
the Political gains will be lost

Anup said...

Dear Sir,

It's fake or paid news

Govt tells IAF to consider Boeing's F-18 Super Hornets for $16 bn order

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/govt-tells-iaf-to-consider-boeing-s-f-18-super-hornets-for-16-bn-order-118031500135_1.html

AJ said...

Prasun Da,

kemona cho. Small step in right direction. Do you have any updates on Chief of Defence Staff?


Delegation of Financial Powers to Armed Forces


http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=177436


AJ

Rajesh Mishra said...

All the dangerous global extremist terrorist groups like ISIS, Al Qaeda, Al Nusra, Boko Haram are Sunni. All the terrorists caught or apprehended in US, Europe and India are Sunni and not a single of them is Shia. This speaks volumes about the deepest internal contradictions within the so-called muslamic world.

Curious said...

Prasun, the views of pravin swahney paint a very disturbing picture and with his analysis of the union defence budget it seems to be a foregone conclusion that there was be no high intensity limited war with pak thereby exposing us on both fronts in terms of capability and deterrence. Do you see India pulling out of this seemingly downward spiral?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

All these changes in Combat aircraft requirements makes it clear that the Indian Air Force doesn't have MMRCA medium multi role combat aircraft. The 31/33 squadrons would qualify to be either 15 squadrons of HMRCA staffed by Su30MKI and LMRCA to be staffed hopefully in future by 15 squadrons of various LCA Mk2/1A/1 replacing all other current combat aircraft such as Mig21/27/29s and even Jaguars and Mirage 2000s. That means the entire MMRCA role would fall to the Rafael and in future hopefully the AMCA. In which case 6-8 squadrons of the Rafael has to be proceed at the very least. OTOH other equivalent Medium Muli Role Combat Airaraft.

Kaustav said...

Rafale ofcourse

ashish gautam said...

Has government asked IAF & IN to consider F-18 for new twin engine fighters project? OR is it again a new propaganda being pushed by Desi bandalbaaz patrakars?

joydeep ghosh said...

dear

prasun da

1. is this is the super spy you said once was involved in spying right at the top during 1971, she was tutor at pak generals home

http://indianexpress.com/article/entertainment/bollywood/alia-bhatt-to-play-a-kashmiri-muslim-who-spied-for-india-during-1971-war-in-raazi-4718162/

2. has the army woken up from deep sleep in midst of nationalist cachophy

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018/03/death-by-budget-is-this-the-indian-armys-angriest-report-to-government.html

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018/03/war-of-words-new-report-lays-bare-indian-armys-ruined-quest-for-basic-assault-rifles.html

3. now its confirmed as per links put by you just like i had predicted LCA mk2 is a beyond 2025 project and AMCA if comes out of drawing board will be beyond 2035 project

4. you said till Indian AIP land model trial is able to perform for over 40 days if proved only then new SSKs will be ordered but

a. AIP is needed to extend sub ops by 15 days only then why trail upto 40 days

b. scorpene SSKs may go in for mid life upgrade only after 2030 but will it be viable to test the AIPs on Scorpene SSK half boat just like S1 in kalpakkam

c. can the Indian AIP be used with shishumar or sindhughosh suns

5. whatever happened to T90S upgrade

6. why the world is silent on chinas atrocity on Uighyr Muslims and Buddhist Tibetans in China occupied Tibet and Xinjiang, or the Rohingya muslims in Buddhist Myanmar or Muslims in Buddhist Srilanka, or even shunni baloch in Pakistan. I see a unmistakable pattern all these nations are at mercy of Chine debt and are acting against those sections of people that China sees as threat to its economic interest , am i correct

7. is the world/USA waiting India to taker action against Pak so that India next rises against China and the world/USA fire at China over Indias shoulder

8. this USA offer to talk to North kore's Kim, is it a master stroke to bring peace in korean peninsula or an attempt to take Nkorea away from China shadow, as it belives its China that wants to kep the pot boiling in the peninsula by providing it with weapons/missiles, whats ur opinion

9. do you feel time has come for IAF/IN/IA to join the commerce bandwagon bcoz i think as they hold the largest land parcel and other properties in India, commercializing them will help them tide over finance crunch

hope to get answers

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Kapil said...

@Anup Yes, nothing but fake news. Why the hell would we buy two different twin engine MMRCAs to do the same job? Its going to be Rafale as we have already ordered it, albeit in limited numbers. Also, F-18 was rejected by IAF when they shortlisted Rafale and Typhoon back in 2011 which means that F-18 failed to impress the IAF. I think Prasun ji would agree.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Why this joke about F-18 in MMRCA-2 is being spread?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: The faultline of FATA is now a full-blown affair, thanks to the US drone-strikes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAxcPv5-bF0

The time is now fast approaching for India to declare that she does not recognise the Durand Line as a legitimate international boundary!

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Lal Bahadur Shastri's Death, Medical Report Accessed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12n0zC5GYdw

Secret Weapons Supply Pipeline to Syria:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAUPOnoHtuA

buddha said...

idrw.org/china-irons-out-high-altitude-jet-fighter-engine-faults-in-boost-to-defences-against-india-analysts-say/#more-164834
Your comment....Sir..

Anonymous said...

So glad that the army has let the politicians and public know that they really need funds. How can we expect them to face our enemies. I do not understand why we are importing rifles. Improve the ones we make incrementally. They are cheaper and create employment. To improve them let competing houses research. But keep the money in India. The rupee will go lot further.

Can anyone explain why this is the case? Why are they so happy? Is it like Italy where the people are rich but the government is poor. But it can all be about money, it is their society...what is it? Paks are even ahead of China and they climbed 5 places.

https://www.news18.com/news/india/india-slips-11-spots-on-world-happiness-index-lags-behind-pakistan-and-china-1689481.html

MPatel

john said...

Hi,

FYI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwXx-SjTEIk&feature=youtu.be&a=

One minute Video

Interesting carbon ink, may be useful for defense

Regards

Rajesh Mishra said...

So FATA will be taken over by India or by Afghanistan or it may remain independent? Anyhow it will not be under Pakistan and is going to get the true autonomy.

BTW, the Pakistani happiness is the devilish song before the death.

Anonymous said...

"Can anyone explain why this is the case? Why are they so happy?"

See happiness is an abstract concept and it depends on you. I think pakistanis see other west asian nations like syria, iraq and feel that they avoided being next failed nation in great game of world powers so they are content with what they've got and what they're doing and most of them are very religious,low percent of literacy and think being true muslim will grant them jannat(heaven) so they will be happy generally.

China is interesting case they've much higher percapita income,infrastructure et al., but they aren't content with it, they aim to be the middle kingdom(Zhōngguó) among other nations of world. Plus authoritarian one party with total censorship and other draconian measures of the state will create a sense of fear among its people.

Being happy is good from hedonistic point of view but it may also cause contentment with little interest to go further.

What do you feel prasun sir?

Anna

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The 5th columnists from JNU are at it yet again:

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-strategy-of-conflict/article23264085.ece?homepage=true

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/arresting-the-drift/article23263800.ece?homepage=true

Meanwhile, Discovery Channel, India’s leading destination for factual entertainment, is launching a special series on the Indian Submariners as a part of its extremely popular Breaking Point Franchise. This is the first time that any private broadcaster will showcase a TV series on the underwater warriors of the Indian Navy – the submarine arm which just celebrated its golden jubilee anniversary in December 2017. The special 4 part series ‘Breaking Point: The Indian Submariners’ gives the viewer a window into the world of complex, high-technology platform like the Submarines who acquire their strength from stealth in a very colloquial manner through the eyes of a common man, and anchor, Harman Singha, who takes audiences into a world which has never been explored before – a journey to live the life of an Indian Submariner; from the classroom to the officers Mess through Escape Training School; to diving to the depths of the seas on board the INS Sindhukirti. The 4 episodes of Breaking Point: The Indian Submariners will premiere on Discovery Channel starting March 19 at 9:00 pm and Veer By Discovery, India’s first dedicated military channel, available on JIO TV, Airtel Wynk and YouTube.

To RAJESH MISHRA: FATA should revert back to Afghanistan. The Afghanistan-Pakistan international border should be the western bank of the River Indus.

To MPATEL: Happiness is a relative & subjective matter & can never be objectively quantified either at the mass-level or individual-level. Importing rifles & ammo is FAR CHEAPER than making them domestically. Furthermore, less than 50% of the firearms are being imported. The balance will be made up of indigenously developed firearms. The former has to do with immediate war preparedness, while the latter has to do with force modernisation.

To BUDDHA: That news-report is totally misleading & is in fact, FAKE NEWS. For starters, the high-altitude shortcomings had nothing to do with the Russia-supplied turbofans, but more to do with the electro-hydraulic accessories like fuel-pumps, filters etc etc that were of Chinese design. Secondly, the shortcomings were related to flights at higher altitudes & NOT about operating from high-altitude airports or air bases.

Anonymous said...

Sir see this

We all know this
"U.S. launch companies lobby to maintain ban on use of Indian rockets"

Link: http://spacenews.com/u-s-space-transport-companies-lobby-to-maintain-ban-on-use-of-indian-rockets/

Now see this news. Do you see any link and future implications for us?

"An unauthorized launch would also call into question the ability of secondary satellite ‘ride-share’ companies and foreign launch providers to comply with U.S. space regulations."

Link:https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/aerospace/satellites/fcc-accuses-stealthy-startup-of-launching-rogue-satellites.amp.html

Anna

kishore said...

that guy mr.jha who wrote "Arresting the drift" looks like a child

Kapil said...

Russia has started production of the new S-500 Prometheus https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2018-03-14/russias-next-generation-s-500-sam-enters-production and it looks like India might soon become the first foreign customer of it www.financialexpress.com/defence/s-400-triumf-missile-defence-systems-nirmala-sitharaman-likely-to-finalise-deal-during-russia-visit/1101181/ I'm expecting Congress led by its duffer-in-chief to create controversy over it just like they are doing with Rafale.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The on-going Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement, on which the ISI had imposed a total news blackout since the past 11 days, is raising several questions. Already, FATA’s tribesmen have been facing dehumanising racial profiling since 2004 & this has dramatically intensified after OP Zarb-e-Azb. Querstions are also being raised abou the conduct of low-intensity warfare by the PA & PAF since 2004, thereby directly contradicting the PA’s narrative about such operations being COIN campaigns. In addition, evidence is now emerging from these FATA tribesmen that the PA’s policy of harbouring Good Afghan Taliban & Good Pakistani Taliban within both FATA & in urban areas like Karachi is very much active, contrary to official denials from both the PA & the Govt of Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBquWZAe5mI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAxcPv5-bF0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UH2ENLe2lxY

In addition, the PA COAS’ assertion during the Munich Security Conference last month that the Afghan Jihad of the 1980s was ‘thrust’ upon Pakistan by the West, is now causing further confusion within average Pakistanis, who in the 1980s were told that the Afghan Jihad was Pakistan’s own existential war & that it was fought with Pakistan’s supreme national interests in mind:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogiFmtFA8n8

So, in light of all the above, what will be the US national security strategy in Afghanistan & Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpMPg1T79PQ

Jay said...

With regard to recent articles on FDI etc, here is another angle. Boeing has quadrupled sourcing from India in last 2 years, which indirectly feeds into building capacity in India:

http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Hyderabad/boeing-sourcing-from-india-crosses-1-billion/article22898522.ece

Additionally, as the Rafale offsets start to kick in the FDI numbers will start rising rapidly. The Reliance Dassault facility in Mihan, Nagpur is itself initial FDI of $100 Million by Dassault

ashish gautam said...

Some pages on fb are claiming quoting some IAF officer that "IAF is now not interested in FGFA as it seems to be too much costly with limited capabilities. & Is not as good stealth jet as F-22 & F-35. so we will b looking for what we get best for our money. Though buying it will be totally political decision".
1) real or fake info?
2) but in any condition if FGFA is dropped which aircraft will be procured in place of it??

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

DRDO has released a roadmap for Indicative Technologies till 2025.

https://twitter.com/strategic_front/status/974649265325821952

Thanks,

Sujoy

Anonymous said...

" The faultline of FATA is now a full-blown affair, thanks to the US drone-strikes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAxcPv5-bF0

The time is now fast approaching for India to declare that she does not recognise the Durand Line as a legitimate international boundary! "

just asking..... does anybody from GOI knows what is going on with FATA and there protests?
forget about " Durand Line " our ministers dont even now what areas come under POK and whether POK and Gilit Baltistan are different or single unit? with present political situation at centre? i don't think GOI will initiate limited intensity hostilities.

Ron

Anonymous said...

Sir your comments on this and when will we see indian AIP any guess in timeline. The article says -"Earlier ,the Navy planned to install the AIP module on the fifth and sixth submarines. But delays in development meant it could not be done before the last two submarines were launched."

and another worth to note point -
Vice-Admiral Srikanth said a decision would be made after the current project was completed. “Yes, there is speculation, and even demand, to have three additional submarines at Mazagon Dock Limited. Since we already have the production line, along with expertise, the option can be looked into. But first, the existing project should complete on time.”

Sir what you feel additional subs will be ordered or not?

Link:http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indigenous-module-for-submarines-undergoing-trials/article23274795.ece

Anna

ashish gautam said...

Has NAL released a drawing board design of RTA-70 named aircraft with twin propeller engine with ability to carry upto 70 passengers and having range of greater then 2000km? A stretched version of 90 passengers capacity is also in pipeline....
1) rumor or something is cooking??
2) has govt approved 56 C-295 deal?

Jyoti Sen said...

Dada our admiral said project 75i will be a strategic partnership model. What does it mean. Can u explain.

Manoj G said...

Hi Prasun,

DMK chief M.K.Stalin said today that the possibility of souther states breaking away from India & forming a "Dravida Nadu" is possible.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2018/mar/17/will-support-formation-of-dravida-nadu-comprising-of-southern-states-dmk-leader-stalin-1788675.html

He said that southern states have to pay huge taxes so that Central Govt can compensate underperforming Northern States. Then of course there are the North Eastern sattes that add 0% to India's GDP.

Do you feel that given the fact that the Centre is biased towards the northern states, eventually states in Souther India will break free from Indian union.

Thanks, G Manoj

Rajesh Mishra said...

"The Afghanistan-Pakistan international border should be the western bank of the River Indus."
>> You mean the India-Pakistan international border should be the eastern bank of the River Indus. Lol!

BTW, Pakistanis have to be very happy now, because they know that their jannat is hovering just at the top of their heads.

ashish gautam said...

One more question sir, there is a news surfacing net that army has "challenged" drdo to develop a new QR-SAM having engagement range of 20Km having speed envelope of 700-800m/s or more for 8 new missile regiments. The army has mentioned that DRDO'its systems should be far better then what is being offered by foreign vendors.
1) real or again fake by bandalbaaz's?
2) if real then is it gonna be improved version of present QR-SAM or something entirely new?
Your comments plz

capri4791 said...

Prasun,

- why can't tejas Mk1, 1a & Mk2 sport additional hardpoints at the rear of the fuselage similar to a mirage 2000 or Rafale & the wingtips? alternatively we have additional jammers mounted on the wingtips
- What is the status of mirage upgrades? inhindsight isn't it a very expensive deal? maybe India could have bought additional new rafales or Su30 MKI's??

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) I never said or stated any such thing. If you want to read more on this issue, then read this:

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-features/tp-metroplus/That-spy-princess/article15446864.ece

2) It has been successive govts, not the armed services, that have been negligent. 4) SSKs with AIPs don’t have on-board diesel engines. So will an AIP-equipped SSK go out to sea only for 15 days? There are two testbeds of the DRDO-developed AIP: land-based prototype & MAREEM prototype engineered to fit inside the Scorpene’s hull. 5) It will be undertaken from next year. 8) Of what use is the US talking to North Korea when it is the UN that has signed the armistic agreement with North Korea? 9) There’s no financial crunch. What is happening is this, as explained:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4K905EBSVso

To MPATEL: LoLz! By the way, Russia’s GDP size is the same as that of Italy. Perhaps that’s why both countries face similar dilemmas.

To ANNA: Read this: https://newsroom24x7.com/2018/03/09/desi-gps-space-application-centre-lacks-priority-at-great-cost-to-the-nation/

Additional Scorpenes will be ordered, but ONLY AFTER the home-grown AIP module is proven to be successful sometime in 2020. It is all there in the weblinked reports of Parliament’s Standing Committee on Defence that I’ve highlighted above.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: 1) How can the IAF induct the FGFA in to service when Russia itself hasn’t yet done so with its Su-57? 2) IAF’s top priority now is to procure more Rafales. How can N AL design any aircraft? NAL is only a research laboratory & does not possess any engineering expertise & that’s why it has to date not designed any aircraft. And why procure C-295s when even countries like Saudi Areabia are procuring An-32s with glass cockpits from Ukraine? Can’t the IAF acquire more An-32s? No one in India can offer any locally developed weapon system that is far superior to what is available elsewhere simply because there are no world-class R & D facilities nor are there any world-class human resources who can use such facilities. Hence, weapons development in India will always follow pioneering trends emerging from the developed countries & typically such products will enter India roughly 2 decades after they have been inducted into service elsewhere. If there’s no industrial R & D centre in India capable of developing diesel engines for UAVs or trucks or SUVs or locomotives, then how can oner expecxt home-grown diesel engines for armoured vehicles or warships?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: LoLz! That’s the list for re-inventing the wheel through the study of industrial patents for all those products & technologies.

To RON: Of course they do. How else do you reckon channe;ls like TimesNow, News-18 or Republic TV or WION get the info for filing such reports? It is the Govt of India that’s feeding all the news to these channels.

To JYOTI SEN: Those soundbytes from the Vice Admiral were made during the screening preview of the Discovery Channel documentary on the IN’s submarine arm. But rest assured that the P-75I project will not take off.

To MANOJ G: The bias is evident in most public discourses today. For instance, the PM recently claimed that the 4 Vedas were composed in India. Can this be proven when most historians have claimed that the 1st veda, Rigveda,was composed on the banks of the Amu Darya River? And was there at that time any country called India or Hindustan or Akhand Bharat? If there wasn;t, then how can anyone claim that the Vedas originated out of India? Insrtead, it should be Tajikistan that should claim the Rigveda being its gift to the world because it was composed on the banks of the river that passes through Tajikistan.

To RAJESH MISHRA: I never stated anything like that, because the IB between India & Pakistan has been a settled affair through the demarcation & delineation of the Radcliffe Line & that cannot be overturned. The Durand Line on the other hand has no international legal sanction & therefore Afghanistan has all the right to reject it & claim all the real-estate where Pashtuns nbow reside as its own. And Pakistan will not be able to contest this claim since Islamabad has always claimed that Afghanistan can be ruled over only by ther Pashtuns. So, if Afghanistan can be ruled only by Pashtuns, then by consequence all the lands where the Pashtuns now reside should also come under Afghanistan’s rule.

To CAPRI4791: 1) Because it has been designed as an L-MRCA, & not M-MRCA. Can a MiG-21 carry weapons in such a manner? ASPJ pods are heavy & severely limit the manoeuvrability of any combat aoircraft. Hence the ASPJ suite is meant to be internally mounted. The fuselage of both Tejas Mk.1 & Mk.1A is too short to accommodate an internal ASPJ suite. If it to be housed internally, then some internal fuel tanks will have to go. That’s why the IAF wants the LCA-AF Mk.2’s fuselage to be stretched by 1 metre. If this happens, then the size of the wings too will need to be increased & this will enable the wings to each carry dual-pylon ejectors for AAMs. The Tejas Mk.1 of course is of deficient design (thanks to ADA’s failure) & therefore the IAF has been offered the Tejas Mk.1A by HAL. So let’s see if HAL can deliver a better product, but in any case the Tejas Mk.1A too won’t exactly be a MRCA, but will instead be something like a MiG-27M tactical strike aircraft PROVIDED it is armed with presently-available small-diameter standoff PGMs. For self-protection, the report from Parliament’s Standing Committee on Defence clearly states that the Mk.1A will be armed with Derby BVRAAMs & AIM-132 ASRAAM SRAAMs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

FDN-2, India's first ever build floating dock, is all set to join the Indian Navy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV0DIHssNDw

DIMDEX 2018 Day 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2H_iYr203Y

Bombardier GlobalEye AEW & C: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rFTcXz9rYI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcL9DgEe5lQ

Shyam Saran & Nirupama Rao On the Inevitable Economic Clash Between India & China:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R23GpitHCmA

Nirmala Sitharaman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAkAJwFW0Lo

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

India-Pakistan Diplomatic Spat:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7FrrRu7ZaY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DHJo9IzES8

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-moves-on-integrated-theatre-commands-amends-rules-to-bring-three-forces-under-single-leadership/articleshow/63358296.cms

sathead3 said...

In your response to Joydeep Ghosh you said "SSKs with AIPs don’t have on-board diesel engines". What??? AIP is a supplemental system meant to increase the endurance of subs by generating power to recharge the batteries without the need to snorkel and run the diesel engines to charge the battery. Did you mean something else? I don't think submarines can be built with just batteries and AIP.

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,

Regarding the statements from the speaker in the url shared - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4K905EBSVso is jingoism; since, if the person has been tracking Indian economy for 25 years, he will know that the mess has been there for a long time, wherein people with clout see the public sector banks as their own and take (by all means possible) and don't return. Currently, some amount of the mess (not everything) is put out to general public and in a way it works well for the banks to clear their hidden NPAs. Personally my hunch is SBI merger with its associate banks working its way to become a global bank is not palatable.

Thanks,
Ganesh

rad said...

hi prasun
the saab globeal eye seems to be the way forward with air land and sea coverage . do we need some thing like that? the presenter says the radar is new and can detect stealth targets? has the freq gone lower? and power increase ? how does it fare against our awacs range not with standing ?
why have we chosen the asraam instead of the python 5 in service withthe army? any advantages??

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

Lot of congi supporters are claiming on twitter that Rafale deal is a scam. When i ask them how, they give vague answers or no answer at all. Could you please do a post that explains why/why not this deal is a scam and how it is better that the earlier one that was cancelled.
Thanks,
Sumit

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATHEAD3: What you are referring to (AIP being supplemental battery re-charging system) applies to only the 1st generation AIPs in service. The new-generation AIPs are designed to be put to use the moment the SSK leaves its homeport on a patrol mission & such an AIP will be used till the SSK comes back to its homeport after fulfilling its mission. Why? Simply because the SSK cannot snorkel after 14 days in an area where it is reqd to operate & be on-station & if it were to exit its operational area just for snorkeling then that will involve a long & time-consuming to-and-fro transit journey that will put severe strain on the on-board stocks worth no more than 30 days of perishable foodstuff for the crew complement. Hence, for SSKs equipped with new-generation AIP modules, the batteries are charged on-shore prior to patrol mission commencement, following which the AIP takes over the battery recharging functions & this continues till the SSK returns back to its homeport. Theirs is only 1 on-board emergency diesel generator for emergency purposes & the original diesel-electric generators are done away with & in their place are additional batteries installed. Hence, the new-generation AIPs are now the principal electrical generators, & not supplemental. The French & Japanese are pioneers in this field at the moment.

To RAD: The combined airborne/maritime domain awareness surveillance capability is the way of the future as it does away with the need for mission-specific surveillance platforms. Stealthy targets can always be detected but continuous tracking of low-observable airborne targets was a problem until recently. Maturation of new-gen target tracking algorithms has overcome such problems. Let’s wait & see whether it is possible to integrate the Targo HMDS with AIM-132 ASRAAM, or whether in the end a wholly new HMDS from BAE Systems will have to be acquired to ensure fail-safe integration with ASRAAM.

Anik said...

Delhi & Dhaka go into huddle as boat carrying ‘Chinese Arms’ seized in Bangladesh
Is China arming anti-Indian groups?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/delhi-dhaka-go-into-huddle-as-boat-carrying-chinese-arms-seized-in-bangladesh/articleshow/63359584.cms?utm_source=WAPusers&utm_medium=twittershare&utm_campaign=socialsharebutton&from=mdr

Rajiv M said...

https://theprint.in/security/china-quietly-finds-new-route-to-s-doklam-7-months-after-india-stopped-it/43070/

What is China's end game in your opinion. How should India counter it?

The Xeno said...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Viewpoints/Brahma-Chellaney/China-s-stealth-wars-in-the-Himalayas?page=1

Anonymous said...

Thank you sir for your reply and that article -

"The crux of the problem is that ISRO went full steam ahead and started launching the satellites in the Indian navigation system in quick succession, without bothering to ensure the CHIPSETS required for ground support also developed simultaneously to roll out the services. This is more merely a lapse but has led to criminal waste of public money. Those responsible will have to be identified and held accountable."
is spot on about the laxity on such very strategically important projects and I fear that sir as you highlight often about the importance of local semiconductor foundry or fab plant, so far no concrete steps are taken.

Sir, do you have any updates on these-

Link - http://www.financialexpress.com/industry/government-to-rework-strategy-for-setting-up-chip-units/832061/lite/

and another thought provoking article on GaN foundry proposed at IISc bengauluru
http://m.deccanherald.com/?name=http://www.deccanherald.com/content/663415/dont-miss-bus-semiconductors.html

Anna

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Minority religion status for Lingayats

As per Lingayats, they are against Vedas. They are against Hindu Varnashram. So they want to treat them as separate Religion. Since 1881 they are fighting against Hindu Religion.

Very soon we can see hundreds of minority religions in India splitting from main Hindu Region. There are two voices in BJP/RSS Camp. Some RSS guys supports splitting from main Hindu Religion.

1) Is this a start for downfall of Hindu Religion.

or

2) This may be RSS Master Plan to nullify minority religions like Christian, Muslims etc taking jobs, benefits etc.

Thanks in Advance

S.Senthil Kumar

Rajesh Mishra said...

The Army so far seems to have appreciated the Ishapur 7.62*51 Assault Rifle. That may mean that the said weapon is the "Dream Gun".

buddha said...

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/china/xi-ready-for-bloody-battle-wont-cede-an-inch-of-chinese-territory/articleshow/63385497.cms
Your comment sir

Rafale MRCA said...

Hi Prasun,

With regard to the recent purchase/acquisition to the 2 balance 777-300ERs of Air India and retrofitting them VIP aircraft:-
(A) Wouldn't it have been more wise to kill two birds with one stone and get the a-330MRTT with VIP seats. Something like what the RAF did, though not with the core fleet, https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/raf-reveals-vip-configured-voyager-427048/

(B) Also , I remember you stating before, is the plan of re-engining the balance Il-76s and converting them into tankers still under consideration/progress?

thanks,
Rajdeep

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Interesting Reads: https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/293885-the-bajwa-doctrine-from-chauvinism-to-realism

https://www.dawn.com/news/1395829

The 2nd report reminds me of the July 4 1999 visit to Blair House in the US by Nawaz Sharif & during the discussions there all members of the Pakistani delegation except Nawaz Sharif were asked to leave the meeting room, while all US staffers along with POTUS Bill Clinton were present. The end-result then was abvious.

rad said...

hi prasun
i did see brochure pics of the python 5 on lca . Have they run into integration problems ?. if the Targo is replaced by other European hms it will be a negative step as i think no one has made a hms equal in performance to the targo helmet.

why is the Seychelles opposition opposing india`s military base , i have a feeling that the chinks have bribed them. will it be advantageous for the navy and anti sub operations?. what if they deny the base ? have we options.

what is the new road to doklam and how dangerous is it for india . personally i feel xi is letting of hot gas for the consumption of the public in china by his rhetoric of war. what do you future out?

various performance reports are comming out from all quarters regarding MK2 LCA. I feel apprehensive that drdo or hal can handle that. IS it attempting to improve what ADA goofed up? how is it that as all the maths had been done BY ADA, and hal improves on it. Is it not safer to go to a mature designer like dasssault as they have given us initial help with the design and world leaders in delta configurations?

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

1. this is response to the answer you gave to SATHEAD3 with regards to his querry about the answer on AIP you gave to my question

a. i remember you saying its either speed or endurance, if speed is primary endurance is secondary and vice versa, this means AIP subs with boosted endurance means AIP subs will be very slow (if not wrong you had said it will be only 5 knots)

b. wont that make kalvaris' a virtual floating underwater ducks

c. what about the towed sonars for subs and ships, when will IN ever get them, last heard a DRDO lab was unsuccessfully working on it and imported ones are yet delayed

2. forgot to ask you, you had uploaded possibly the original docs about India Seychelles deal for assumption island, that were leaked online (my guess at dragons behest), doesnt that make you partner in crime :-) (last heard Seychelles opposition has decided to oppose the deal tooth and nail, i believe at dragons behest again)

3. i think using S400 for stopping chinese J20s is like using swords to cut onion

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/iaf-says-it-can-tackle-chinese-j-20-stealth-jets-with-s-400-missile-systems/story-3irEsafi5AXvlpQYWJtNZK.html

4. while the below news in good, my wild guess is why cant DRDO develop a MGS version of 105 mm Indian Field Gun, i think its still got lot of firepower and a MGS version can be a force multiplier

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/ofb-upgrades-130-mm-field-guns-eyes-order-from-army-118031901250_1.html

5. why the sudden belligerence from princeling who become dragon's blessed emperor

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2018/mar/20/chinese-president-xi-jinping-wont-cede-even-an-inch-of-land-ready-for-bloody-battle-1789847.html

awaiting answes

Joydeep Ghosh

Rad said...

Hi Prasun

What cud be the cause of the brand new hawk crash .? Pilot error?

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

(1) Just like you had predicted. Due to myopic vision HAL's IPO fails to take off

https://m-economictimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/m.economictimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/hal-public-offer-fails-to-gather-full-subscription/amp_articleshow/63390895.cms

(2) Generally speaking, is there any way to predict which projects will be cleared by India's MoD , year on year ?

Thank You

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

New legal & constitutional tinkering being tried out in PoK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeI_L2j31VM

Quite interesting revelations about the reasons fpr growing unrest among the local inhabitants of PoK.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...



Prasun da, kindly share your views:

https://www.news18.com/news/india/adivasistan-a-separate-independent-area-sans-indian-constitution-laws-1695351.html?ref=hp_top_pos_2

Manoj G said...

Hi Prasun,

I agree with most of what you said, but please note that the "bias" that you talked about is almost always in North India aka Hindi Heartland.

Take this recent decision of the 15th Finance Commission to use 2011 population figure instead of 1971 figures . The sole intention is to punish non hindi speaking states - South India, Eastern India. So states in South & East who have controlled their population are being punished & revenue from these states are being pumped into North India.

The entire Union of India has been set up with the sole intention of benefitting Hindi speaking & western states. Had eastern & certainly southern states been independent countries they would have become developed countries by now.

Thanks, G.Manoj

ashish gautam said...

Sir, The news provided in the following link is trustworthy or not??
Are our "generals" being paid by Americans for this? Or is it due to modi's love for America?
http://avia.pro/news/vvs-indii-su-57-ustupaet-amerikanskim-istrebitelyam-pochti-vo-vsyom?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fzen.yandex.com

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Manoj G Has the Vijaynagar seen what happened in whole North India, might be they saved us from this whole misery.

All of us are in same boat. Vijaynagar never intervened when raiders from Hindu Kush was raiding north India. They had no strategic thinking. That there is no strategic feature between north and south that separate India . But still they were such morons that allowed north India to fall, instead of intervening in such wars. And then they unable to defend themselves.

So please blame yourself for such misery.

And yes there is more transfer of funds toward northern states. And I don't understand why it shouldn't? Do you realised the meaning of Union after 70 years? Before it you was sleeping?


The more funds go to where more population exist or more poverty. Didn't you understand what is difference in US and EU?

After 70 years you suddenly realised this now? Why it took you so long to realize that southern states failed to develop a single deep water port? Or industrialise there states? Who was stopping them? Maharashtra? Gujarat? West Bengal? Ohh might be those are also Hindi speaking states.

If the Gujarat getting most of FDI , then that is fault of Hindi speaking state?

Might be you should start to blame Gujaratis for that. Ohh you might be thinking , who ever is non Darvadian is Hindi speaker. Lolz. Your ignorance is just amazing.

Arpit Kanodia said...

"""India’s latest figures are any indication. RBI’s data for the last five years (2012-13 to 2016-17) shows that 62 per cent of the projects were predominantly taken up in Gujarat, Odisha, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, showing the skewed nature of the country’s industrialisation."""

https://www.google.co.in/amp/indianexpress.com/article/business/economy/rbi-study-seven-states-account-for-62-of-new-projects-in-last-5-years-4839260/lite/

Might be this is fault of Gujaratis Odia and Marathis.

Ohh I forgotten these are all Hindi speaking states.

How much ignorant I was, I thought in Gujarat , people speak in Gujaratis. In Odisa people speak Odia. Now I started to realize these are Hindi speaking states.