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Monday, July 6, 2020

PLA's New Heliports & Helicopters, Dual-Use Airports & Naval Updates


Construction has begun on two heliports meant for air-maintenance of the PLAGF’s on-site garrisons in the Hot Springs and Panggong Tso Lake areas. Located north of Hot Springs (34 26 40.2 N, 78 55 23.0 E) and 155km east of Panggong Tso Lake (32 29 49.1 N, 80 04 19.2 E) they will be similar in design to the heliports that were built in the 2017-2018 period in the North Doklam area in the eastern sector.
The 76th Aviation Brigade of the PLA Army conducted a daylight tactical penetration exercise on June 22, 2020 in the Kunlun mountain range in southern Xinjiang. This Aviation Brigade has eight Groups, with 12 helicopters in each Group. Helicopters in use are the Mi-171E and Z-8G utility helicopters, and the Z-9WZ and the ZW-10 attack helicopters.
The Aviation Brigade is headquartered at Xinjiang’s Wujiaqu Heli-Base (44 06 46 N, 087 27 41 E), under which come the forward bases comprising the Shule/Baren Heli-Base (39 23 46 N, 076 11 26 E), Shuimogoucun Heli-Base (43 48 59.14 N, 87 41 17.20 E), Tashkurgan Heli-Base (37 43 33.27 N, 75 15 21.98 E) and the latest Pishan County Heli-Base in Hotan Prefecture (36 20 42.1 N, 78 01 57.7 E).
The presence of such heliports will enable the PLAGF in future to rapidly deploy to those areas that China claims to be its own, thereby seizing the initiative and taking advantage of the element of surprise. Consequently, the on-going disengagement of forces does in no way reduce the military threat from the PLAGF of physical occupation of territory along the LAC at any future date.
In addition, under the Tibet Military District (TMD) Lhasa in Tibet has the Liuwuxiang Heli-Base (29 35 25 N, 091 01 14 E) that was commissioned in 2017, the Shiquanhe Heli-Base at Ngari (32 29 45.69 N, 80 4 15.46 E), the Nyingchi Heli-Base above Arunachal Pradesh, and Shigatse Airport too has a heli-base that was built in 2017.
New-generation variants of the Z-8 (the Z-8G and Z-8L) have a total takeoff weight of 13 tonnes. Changhe Aircraft Industry Group’s (CAIG) Z-8L ‘Gaoyuan’ (Plateau) heavylift helicopter, earlier designated as the Z-18, is a heavily modified version of the Harbin Z-8, CAIG’s derivative of the Aérospatiale SA.321 Super Frelon. The Z-8L flew for the first time in 2014. Powered by three domestic WZ-6C turboshaft engines, it has a maximum takeoff weight of 13.8 tonnes and can carry 30 troops, or five tonnes of cargo for up to 1,000km.
The Z-8L’s design has replaced the Super Frelon’s distinctive boat-hull lower fuselage with a tail ramp and has added a small terrain-following radar in the radome. In addition, the much longer external sponsons are configured as fuel tanks, as well as mounting the aft undercarriage. The internal width of the load area has been increased from 1.8 metres to 2.4 metres. Some Z-8Ls are fitted with a SATCOM fairing on the tailboom, aft of the engine exhausts. “We have completed flight training, and the next step is to focus on the integration with land forces,” said PLA Army’s 83rd Army Air Assault Brigade commander Song Zhipeng. The Z-8L has to date performed flight-tests reaching as high as 29,500 feet.
The twin-engined Z-20 medium-lift helicopter now being built at the Harbin Aircraft Industry Group (HAIG) is a multi-purpose platform that is also China’s first helicopter to use an indigenously developed fly-by-wire flight-control system (FBW-FCS). The Z-20 also features a streamlined aerodynamic structure and new anti-icing technology. In November 2017 the Z-20 in PLA Air Force (PLAAF) colours completed its high-altitude flight-tests at Xiahe airfield (flying up to 4,000 metres, or 13,200 feet) in Gansu province. The Z-20’s requirement dates back to the 1980s, when China was seeking a medium utility helicopter for operations in its mountainous western regions of Tibet and Xinjiang. The PLAAF eventually imported 24 Sikorsky S-70C-2s powered by General Electric T700-701A engines. Since then, the S-70’s performance in such regions has been unmatched, even with the later acquisition by China of Mil Mi-17V5s from Russia. Development of the Z-20 began in 2006, and the maiden flight took place on December 23, 2013.
Although the Z-20 bears a close external resemblance to the S-70, the Z-20 incorporates novel features like the FBW-FCS, five main rotor blades, and a more angular tail–to-fuselage joint airframe, all of whoch contributes to more lift, greater cabin capacity and higher endurance. In addition, a new fairing installed aft of the engine exhausts and another on the tail spine, are housings for the BeiDou (Big Dipper) satellite navigation system’s receiver antennae. Powerplant for the Z-20 is the domestically-developed WZ-10 turboshaft engine, providing 2,145shp of power. The Z-20 will be a key air-mobility and projection platform for the PLA, while its Z-20F will provide the PLA Navy with a much-needed shipborne multi-role naval helicopter.
Meanwhile, Beijing has begun building what is perhaps TAR’s first dedicated air base at the site of the old Damxung Airport in the Damxung County of Lhasa. Built in 1955, the Damxung Airport was the world’s highest airport at that time. The site is located at 30 28 59.59 N, 91 4 42.78 E.
In addition, work has begun on constructing the Lhunze Airport in Lhoka (Shannan Prefecture), north of the Upper Subansiri and Tawang districts of Arunachal Pradesh. The site is at 28 24 9.83 N, 92 28 12.56 E. Another airport is coming up at Purang (30 17 44.30 N, 81 9 20.48 E) near the trijunction Nepal-Tibet-India, north of India’s Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand state. And yet another airport is to be built between the Tingri and Lhatse counties, north of Zangmu, the border post with Nepal.
Also expected to be built is an underground, hardened ammunition storage facility in Aksai Chin’s existing logistics support facility at Tianshuihai (34 44 42.91 N, 80 9 4.92 E), which will resemble the Xinjiang Military District’s ammunition storage facility at Urumqi: (43 46 27.40 N, 87 31 46.29 E).
Naval Updates
China State Shipbuilding Trading Co Ltd (CSTC) will in late August 2020 launch the first of four 4,200-tonne Type 054AP guided-missile frigates (FFG) for the Pakistan Navy at the Shanghai-based Hudong Zhonghua Shipyard. Deliveries will take place between 2010 and 2023. CSTC started work on the first two FFGs in 2018, while the construction of the third and fourth FFGs commenced in November 2019. The PN had ordered the Type 054AP FFGs in two equal batches, with the first order placed in 2017, and the second in the summer of 2018.
At Shanghai’s Jiangnan Shipyard the first Type 055 guided-missile destroyer (DDG) for the PLA Navy (PLAN)—101 Nanchang—has completed its sea trails and now awaits commissioning, while the second DDG—102 Lhasa—is currently undergoing sea-trials. The fifth such DDG—103 Anshan—is now undergoing outfitting, while the seventh DDG—104—is now undergoing outfitting at Dalian Shipyard, where the third DDG--105 Dalian—is now undergoing sea-trials.
The fourth Type 055 DDG—106 Yanan is being outfitted at Dalian along with the sixth DDG—107 Zunyi. The eighth DDG—108—is now undergoing sectional hull-assembly. The Type 052D DDGs now at Jiangnan Shipyard include the 122 Tangshan, 132 Suzhou), while another five built by this shipyard are now undergoing sea-trials.
The Indian Navy (IN), meanwhile, has quietly begun the process of installing RAFAEL-developed BNET-AR SDR-based tactical data-links on both its MiG-29K/KUB carrier-based MRCAs, as well as on its existing Ka-31 AEW helicopters. While the MiG-29Ks and MiG-29KUBs had all come equipped with internal wiring and all-composite apertures (behind their nosecones facing both starboard and portside), the Russia-origin VHF/UHF tactical data-links were not installed since the IN was on the lookout for SDR-based data-links. The BNET-AR was finally selected last year for both platforms and the installation work is now being carried-out in-country at Dabolim.

95 comments:

Millard Keyes said...

Apparently China is claiming Vladivostok now because of its past occupation prior to the treaty that handed the city over to Russia? (WION news)
India's problems seem to be two front: economic hardship brought on by this China virus. Secondly, lack of industrial facilities and government initiative. Chinese are producing weaponry at a frantic pace emulating Hitler and Germany of the 1930s - why even raising similar issues around its neighbourhood. Indians are meanwhile still tossing heads or tail to see import this or import that - throw in go go gadget company DRDO/HAL) promising the moon and landing hard on earth!

BENO said...

Sir,
1. With regarding to huawei do you think indian government will bite the bullet and ban huawei from 5g?
2. In one of your previous replies in which you have stated that plans are afoot in developing indigenous 5g equipment along with Taiwan and Japan even though there is American tech in it?
3. With regarding to the 5g test bed by iit Madras how long do you think it will take for it to be operationally deployed? Or is it a part of the system being developed along with Taiwan and Japan?
4. Given the fact that jio attract much more investments during this lockdown period, has jio involved in developing 5g equipment?
5. Is it possible if India buys Raytheon sentinel system or it has been blocked by drdo claiming it can develop its own systems? If so would it be successful?

Buddha said...

https://theprint.in/defence/indian-and-chinese-troops-begin-disengagement-in-ladakh-army-to-remain-very-cautious/455365/
Sir this type of withdrawal will help chinese a lot
They will enter then the entry point become buffer zone..
Loss of India ..
Editor sir is terming this as whole galam velley will be chinese ..
What's going on sir..
How can indian territory becomes buffer zone..

just_curious said...

Prasun,

1- with such rapid acquisition process of platforms and @such a fast pace..are these products subjected to rigorous tests as demanded by the IAF/IA of ours? if these developments don't force the govt to accelerate acquisitions of new platforms like lch, luh, mk1a, super su 30 etc dunno what will. Also will this now force the armed forces & domestic mfg's to change their approach to bring their products faster in the mkt? will it accelerate deeper involvement of pvt industry not withstanding the protests from DPSU's
2- pakistan trying to have elections in GB * pok.. Can India get them halted, if not any implications going forward to our claims on them?
3- is it end game for Oli or will he wriggle out? what needs to be fixed in the indo-nepal relations to ensure no future surprises..how does india keep its neighbors close going ahead? what prompted Myamnar to squeal & why now?
4- Will this standoff have any effect on afghanistan ? will India or china or pakis try to strengthen/ change tack there to break status quo in their favour?
5- Can India extract stricter punishment for pakis in Fatf plenary in oct from china as retribution by way of not supporting pakis in the meet?
6- Z20 heli reaching nearly 30k feet.. not heard/read about any other heli boasting such numbers including american made (our ppl are going gaga abt lch/luh reaching 21k feet) how is it made possible ..
7- Will attleast this skirmish prompt us to open formal relations with taiwan? as you had highlighted we tend to go back in our comfort zone (like we did in doklam) till jolted again..had seen some prominent taiwanese leader/govt official openly extending hand saying their hardware+ our software skills should do wonders..whats stopping us?
8- Will RCEP members now revist their stance given that australia asean & japan have exchanged barbs with china?
9- Will Quad be formalised?
10 - Russian interest in buying Reliance Naval and Engineering Ltd given that its the only shipyard selected by the US to repair its ships as apart of the lemoa. Also will India & US sign the 3rd pact -beca as also similar logistics pacts with russia & japan,, anything with S korea & taiwan?
11- Should India now more aggressively pursue arming asean countries opposing china like Vietnam & Philippines? deals with Vietnam are yet to materialize what the hindernace and how do we overcome them
12- what happens to HK ..will the world abandon them? will it lose its financial hub status? now that the chinese law is enacted
13- Can you share some details about the new LRLACM- so called replacement for nirbhay.. does it exist & will it see the light @ the end of the tunnel? ditto for the news on TEDBF
13- EU/ canada/UK harbouring Khalistanis.. Some tough talks needed?

Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
1.What I have understand is what china wants from India:
a. India to give Siachin & Ladakh for CPEC access
b.India to give Doklam access to reach B'Desh Port
c Open unrestricted Indian mkt to Chinese
Is it correct?

2.does turboprop awacs have any limitations tham turbofan awacs?
Regards

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

I'm sorry being too much obsessed with Tejas. However, please share your view on the backtracking of PLA from Galwan area by 1-2 KM.

DAshu said...

Chini is really self-sufficient in Helicopters now. Impressive insight.
How efficient are their Helicopter engines?

Arun said...

I do not trust China(most people don't).But what if today was really the beginning of the end of the standoff?Would it mean that any plan to capture Fraono,Siari,etc(if it exists) will be shelved?

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, A. did Russia factored in and as well as mother nature, as it is reported that rear defence of the PLA position faced threat of being flooded with ice cold water of the Galwan River , for Chinese decision for pull back ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/chinese-pla-s-rear-defences-in-ladakh-s-galwan-valley-face-an-icy-challenge/story-Tj0nAmgnrN4p6cdbmRxapO_amp.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wionews.com/india-news/india-china-stand-off-russia-in-touch-with-new-delhi-beijing-310709/amp

Ofcourse, Putin must not be very happy person after China's noise on Vladivostok .

B. There was a media report on PRC trying to revive Al Badar in PoK secretly, and coupled with allegation from Myanmar, shall not it be ample time to hard press China diplomatically ?

https://youtu.be/uLPARQySRdo

C. Utter shameful things as Chinese are making desperate attempts to save Oli.

https://youtu.be/A-x3JGNfH5Y


D. May we see imposition of ESMA Act on OFB employees threatening strike very soon ?

E. Is this report of presence of Chinese J 10, and IL 78 in PoK true or fake ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/zeenews.india.com/india/chinese-fighter-aircraft-spotted-at-skardu-airbase-in-pok-amid-sino-india-border-row-2292648.html/amp

F. Is PA now trying to expend IAKN ?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.republicworld.com/amp/world-news/pakistan-news/pakistan-govt-fails-to-handle-covid-crisis-army-displeased.html

G. Lastly why the default absentee MP should continue to be a member of JPC on defence till date ? Shouldn't the existing rules be changed if needed.

Susan said...

Prasun Da,

India need to construct like theses Helipad with hardened shelters for helicopters near Lac.

https://twitter.com/pakimint/status/1266444449581862916

https://twitter.com/pakimint/status/1260665434111696897

Rajesh Mishra said...

With the chinese stand slightly softening at Laddakh, India can as per the suitable time go on for targeting the Gilgit and Baltistan. This is the right time. Is this??

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da, this news published in Indian Express suggests that GoI is much more keen on finding a negotiated settlement than PRC.

Perhaps this is because GoI does not have any kinetic options against PLA.


https://indianexpress.com/article/india/delhi-explores-sr-level-talks-amid-first-tentative-signs-of-climbdown-6491847/

Parthasarathi said...

Prasunda,
How good or bad is these Chinise destroyers in comparison with Indian Kolkata class. They are building in dozens.
Best regards

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir
whats your views about this video
http://tv.cntv.cn/video/C10447/6bf9f8a6d1b64aeb8e9f8d1e56dfb01d

suddenly these become indian positions which most of defence expert calling it as chinese

VSJ said...

1) Sir how many mig29 are left with IAF after last crash?

2)Do we have SAP14 pods?

3) Saw one of your old posts circulated on twitter about fish hook chain? Is it operational near Andaman Nicobar to Malacca already?

4) Chinese heckle Russia over Vladivostok. Why right now?
I have always thought them to be cold and calculating with single minded focus on long term planning if not 10 feet tall in warfare. This was my understanding from their trade practices, production regime, industrial espionage, data and IPR theft, whole biding time thing and declared military and economic buildup before 2050 stuff.

But now they acting like Pakis. Almost delusional. Lashing out and picking fights everywhere.
I know middle kingdom mindset is imbibed deeply but this is whole ghazwa e hind, we are racially and socially superior to India level sort that comes out of Pakistani regime.

Sangos said...

Interesting parallel ~ same time, place & pattern 1962.

http://news.rediff.com/amp/commentary/2020/jun/24/chinese-eyed-galwan-valley-in-1962-too/322f1c2e6d4e68e090c9dad376bbabf2

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: No, not quite. The confusion arises because open-source satellite imagery is showing the same orientation (north to south) as GoogleEarth, whereas the imagery from that video is showing the same but from an opposite oriuentation (south to north). The following diagrams explain it in elementary detail:

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GP2wUh648q0/XwN88JfTwGI/AAAAAAAATx4/i_L6daymhsszl6AygeULBs-HtFAkTdvaACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-1.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6w254IDvyEA/XwN89M_-9QI/AAAAAAAATx8/_tk0P4QbDZ8tFSkD2FyF1VT3E_HruJvWQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-2.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eMzuP6H2ooU/XwN8_exIJEI/AAAAAAAATyE/bTjD__zF4O8g_hniTf2mYP9NFcl_3ypUwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-4.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IrkCA_TO9hw/XwN8-K1tMwI/AAAAAAAATyA/M6esAcrELGAj87SjCnbxFjs2D6R8Jh4lgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-3.jpg

In fact, even the Baidu imagery database (China’s counterpart of GoogleEarth, which is not to be confused with the BEIDOU GPS satellite constellation) show China’s claim-lines to be 10km away from the latest claim-lines. So, it seems both the Central Military Commission & the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing are making claims that are not supported by China’s own official maps as displayed by Baidu—they are a confused lot indeed!!!

And here’s a video detailing all of China’s territorial disputes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGdrvH3ACgw

To MILLARD KEYES: India too should cite historical & archaeological evidence in support of her territorial claims on parts of Xinjiang & Tibet, like these:

https://medium.com/@subhashkak1/the-r%C4%81ma-story-and-sanskrit-in-ancient-xinjiang-4ce8636285ae

Zorawar Singh Kahluria, a subordinate General of Kashmir Maharaja Gulab Singh, himself a vassal of Sikh ruler Maharaja Ranjit Singh, conquered western parts of Tibet, including Panggong Tso, in the early 19th century. The land and financial records of Govt of India, clearly show that taxes were paid by villages around the Holy Parikrama of Kailash Mansarovar, including Taklakot.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BENO: 1) Actually, Huawei will find itself to be technically disqualified because it will be unable to supply all the advanced hardware it had developed even as a vendor to Nokia, Ericsson etc etc because Huawei was using the kind of latest generation microchips that were being imported from Taiwan, but cannot do so now due to sanctions imposed by the US & Taiwan. So technically, no China-based OEM can today claim to be a manufacturer of any piece of hardware that has applications in 5 g cellular communications. 2) Yes, plans do exist but they have not yet been translated into R & D or engineered product development. 3) It will take at least 3 years & is an in-house project without any foreign participation in any sphere. 4) No. JIO is not in the electronics hardware production business. 5) The DRDO has vetoed all imports in this arena, except for the aircraft.

To BUDDHA: It is not a withdrawal. Only a disengagement, i.e. each side moving away from one another out to a distance of 1.5km, so that a 3km no-contact zone is established & that too only in the Galwan River-Valley & Gogra/Hot Springs area. And that’s because China had clearly planned for staying put in the Panggong Tso Lake & Depsang Bulge areas & hence disengagement at Galwan & Gogra/Hot Springs was always meant to serve as a symbolic gesture to give the impression that China is not a hegemon & is peace-loving. In fact, China has still not exercised the option of creating trouble in the Trig Heights/Chip Chap River area further up north & can easily do so anytime in future. The following 4 slides explain it all:

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GP2wUh648q0/XwN88JfTwGI/AAAAAAAATx4/i_L6daymhsszl6AygeULBs-HtFAkTdvaACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-1.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6w254IDvyEA/XwN89M_-9QI/AAAAAAAATx8/_tk0P4QbDZ8tFSkD2FyF1VT3E_HruJvWQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-2.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eMzuP6H2ooU/XwN8_exIJEI/AAAAAAAATyE/bTjD__zF4O8g_hniTf2mYP9NFcl_3ypUwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-4.jpg

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-IrkCA_TO9hw/XwN8-K1tMwI/AAAAAAAATyA/M6esAcrELGAj87SjCnbxFjs2D6R8Jh4lgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Galwan%2B6-7-2020-3.jpg

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) If you ask HAL, it will say that it is only concerned about the LCH & LUH airframes receiving their certificates of airworthiness. If you ask the DRDO, it will say that it cannot begin platform weaponisation until HAL releases the airframes to the DRDO. What neither can explain is why can’t the two tasks be done concurrently, as is the case with the rest of the world. This sequential methodology is proving to be disastrous in terms of flouting all laid-own product development schedules! 2) India does not have to do anything since the people of GB themselves will stay away from such elections. 3) PM Oli’s days are numbered, while Myanmar too has decided to join the bandwagon of other ASEAN member-states bring collective pressure to bear upon China. 4) If India wants to end the standoffs by this November, then she will have to initiate military operations by the end of this month & this in turn will require the Durand Line to be heated up in order to keep the PA busy on the western front. 5) Yes, provided both the US & UK support such moves along with France & Germany. But by this September, Pakistan is likely to end up as a defaulting state. 6) Not 30,000, but 13,200 feet. 7) India already has formal relations with Taiwan, but does not recognise Taiwan to be the Republic of China, that’s the difference & that’s what the One China policy is all about. 8 & 9) Most likely. 10) Unlikely to happen. BECA will be signed in the near future. 11) With what will India arm them? India after all is not producing any state-of-the-art weapons or platforms. Even if Myanmar wants MRCAs, then it will insist on the Tejas Mk.1A, whose limited production capacity by HAL will not ensure deliveries in the timeframe expected by Myanmar. 12) HK has already lost its financial-hub status 13) It is the Nirbhay & is not a brand-new cruise missile. It is called LRLACM because it will be developed as warship-launched & submarine-launched variants, whereas the original Nirbhay variant will be air-launched. The IA has not indicated any reqmt for a ground-launched variant of Nirbhay since it is quite happy with the BrahMos-1. TEDBF & AMCA are pipe-dreams. Let the MWF emerge first. 13) Yes, especially after India has started declaring them as terrorists.

To MOHAN: A) No. What transportation routes will be built across the Siachen Glacier? B) No. All of China’s EPZs are in coastal areas & shipping continues for all 12 months of the year, whereas land-based dryports are open only in a seasonal manner. For instance, the KKH remains open for only 7 months every year. C) Not correct. What China wants is for India to officially recognise both BRI & CPEC, which is an impossibility since CPEC passes through Pakistan-occupied Indian territory & China never even consulted India about either BRI or CPEC. 2) Turboprop AEW & CS platforms have a far lower cruising altitude & also limited endurance as they cannot be refuelled in mid-air by turtbofan-powered aerial refuelling tankers.

To ASD & ARUN: It is just a ploy by China. And that’s because China had clearly planned for staying put in the Panggong Tso Lake & Depsang Bulge areas & hence disengagement at Galwan & Gogra/Hot Springs was always meant to serve as a symbolic gesture to give the impression that China is not a hegemon & is peace-loving. In fact, China has still not exercised the option of creating trouble in the Trig Heights/Chip Chap River area further up north & can easily do so anytime in future.

To DASHU: Their turboshaft engines have very limited total technical service-lives & are therefore expensive to maintain/service.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUMANTA NAG: A) It is just a ploy by China. And that’s because China had clearly planned for staying put in the Panggong Tso Lake & Depsang Bulge areas & hence disengagement at Galwan & Gogra/Hot Springs was always meant to serve as a symbolic gesture to give the impression that China is not a hegemon & is peace-loving. In fact, China has still not exercised the option of creating trouble in the Trig Heights/Chip Chap River area further up north & can easily do so anytime in future. B) That’s exactly why all the small arms & hand-grenades recovered by the J & K Police over the past 120 days have been discovered to be ‘Made in China’. D) Let’s wait & see. E) FAKE NEWS. F) Yes, he has been given only another 5 months of political survival time. G0 Yes. He should also take a pay-cut as he does not deserve to get his full salary while not fulfilling his obligations an an MP. In fact, an online referendum to this effect needs to be held, with the citizens of India giving their verdict either by verifiable e-mails or by SMS text-messages. In this day & age, this is exactly how decisions ought to be made. No need to wait for 5 years for the next general-elections.

To SUSAN: Such HAS are only in the main air bases in the hinterland & in forward air bases such shelters don’t exist anywhere. In fact, just like China has built & is building a strong of heliports, India too needs to do the same in Ladakh, Sikkim & Arunachal Pradesh.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: The negotiated settlement is only for the disengagement, not for de-escalation.

To PARTHASARATHI: The new-generation DDGs like the Type 055 carry vertically-launched land-attack cruise missiles & are thus superior in terms of firepower deliverance.

To VSJ: 1) That number was given by the MoD in its statement on upgrading existing iG-29s. 2) No. 3) Fish Hook chain of SOSUS sensors was operational up to the Andaman Sea by the year 2005 itself. 4) It is a non-issue since China has already settled all its land boundary disputes with Russia.

Ankit Kumar said...

Should we expect any movement on NPP deals with France , USA and Russia anytime soon? Or the focus now will be homegrown PHWRs only.

We have 3 different forces doing Border guarding duties namely BSF,SSB and ITBP. Wouldn't it make sense to combine all three into a single Border Guards Unit which will allow for a single chain of authority and C&C to operate the force. Also it would be easier for them to have a Air arm. ITBP has been trying for decades to have its own helicopters but in vain.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MOHAN: Here's your answer to what were China's motives behind the staging of the standoffs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfT_9b6PhaI&t=4s

The explanation about China's new-found claims on Bhutanese territory: China is seeking territory to drive a wedge between Bhutan & Arunachal Pradesh in a bid to outflank Tawang. In other words, make a limited disengagement in Ladakh in return for opening up a new front to the east, i.e. a tactical re-adjustment while the strategic objectives to be attained remain the same.

To JUST_CURIOUS: Inside a PLAN Y-9EQ LRMR/ASW aircraft:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r54QSbzTBKM

To SUMANTA NAG: Taiwan's Chunghwa Telecom Launches 5G Mobile Services:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgvY6u6RMuc

Taiwan's Brave Eagle LIFT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_MTJE-kVWI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6ql02lguWM

HAL's in-house LCA Sport LIFT will probably take off a decade later, since it will ostensibly have its hands full with the MWF, TEDBF & AMCA in this decade!!!

Karnflakes said...

Prasun Da .. we have talked about Nokia and Ericsson.. but isn't the jio / rakuten combo the beat solution for India's 5g. Indeed rakuten claims that only a new antenna is required while the actual software implementation is left to the ISP/telecom company..

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

India's goals should ofcourse be economic growth at double digits & that applies even while getting allies or confronting PRC alone which might not pose a challenge to the US, but is an existential threat to India, more so when PRC operates with Pak against India. Fighting India with sticks and stones on the high plateau of Ladakh comes cheap for PRC, but preparing to confront the United States in the Western Pacific is a very expensive proposition indeed. It is likely to prove a luxury that a slow-growth, post-coronavirus China will not be able to afford. Like a gangster flashing a wad of $100 bills, China makes a great show of its wealth and its willingness to spend it. In reality, Beijing’s bank balance doesn’t match its bling.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/06/china-superpower-defense-technology-spending/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANKIT KUMAR: Imported PWRs are always accompanied by financing packages from the supplier-country, while the ‘desi’ PHWRs are all financed by the Govt of India. So, for the foreseeable future, the ‘desi’ PHWRs will remain the mainstay, since even the FBR project of the DAE is still encountering engineering challenges.

WRT the LAC, as I had explained earlier, it is extremely demoralising for the IA to patrol areas over which India’s claim has not been fully established. And this confusion persists till this day, if this is to be believed:

https://theprint.in/defence/india-considering-itbp-patrols-in-lac-grey-zones-to-keep-the-peace-on-china-border/456088/

Such delusional narratives are now being spread by those very ill-informed lobbies that in yesteryears used to label the LAC as being a perception, concept, etc etc. The IA had back in 1962 fought to the last man in these very areas, like Sirijap, east of Finger-8 at Panggong Tso Lake. So, how can anybody even dare to call such areas as constituting ‘grey zones’ today? Shouldn’t any self-respecting country have erected on-site memorials to honour their fallen warriors in such areas? That alone would have made the PLA think twice before unilaterally encroaching on such areas. In addition, differenttaing between the PLA & BDR is by itself a falsity & disinformation. The BDR are Regiments that are integral to the PLA Ground Forces (PLAGF) & its ORBAT. The BDR is neither CAPF nor a paramilitary force & is part of the regular PLAGF & hence the BDRs operate under a unitary command-n-control hierarchy, unlike the existing arrangements concerning the ITBP (reporting to & taking orders from the Union MHA) & IA (reporting to & taking orders from the MoD).

To KARNFLAKES: Only a competitive round of demonstrated solutions will prove which solution is the best in both financial & technological aspects.

To KAUSTAV: Indeed, and in addition to all that, the quadrupling of funds earmarked for border transportation infrastructure development is the best answer to any mis-adventurism by Beijing. Also, India has traditionally done the mistake of labelling such projects as being military-specific, unlike China, which never used such terms/justifications & instead merely referred to its border infrastructure development activities as being part of its overall economic/tourism development efforts. India needs to learn this & reframe her narratives & justifications for improving her border transportation/habitat improvement projects.

And here are the two programmes aired by CCTV-4 yesterday, with one dealing with the LAC standoffs & the other with Taiwan's ongoing military exercises:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yz6gEJTh8Pw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtOQRywAxSU

AMIT BISWAS said...

CCTV report on Galwan clash should ring alarm bells in New Delhi for the simple reason that now Xi, for the first time since it began 2-1/2 months back, is informing Chinese public about the standoff painting India as an aggressor. He may be building a case for future action.

The RAT said...

Hi Prasun,

Thanks for answering previous questions. Regarding HAL and DRDO passing the parcel game on LCH & LUH should the govt not crack the whip and tell them to work together or forget the project as war is comming and we need those platforms like yesterday. There is no time left to play these games If I had the control i would have stopped funds for all other fancy futuristic dreams of AMCA and MCA and to concentrate on helicopter project as well as LCAs thats all deliver it first then speak later. Also would it not be a good idea to setup secondary line for LUH & LCH know its earlier but the site building and other infrastructure needs to be in place. I still have lots of doubts about LCA mk1A's performance and don't know if LCA mk2 will be able to resolve this? Still have not seen the intake redesign for Mk2 as it was suggested to have different design then the circular ones. Need so many things to be taken care of wonder what decisionmakers are doing. Thanks in advance

Arun said...

Hello sir

1)Does India still have the element of surprise vis a vis Pakistan?Don't you think that Pakistan would have considered the possibility of India trying to capture some territory that they control?

2)Sir Creek is 96 km long.Does India control the entire 96km stretch of the Sir Creek or just the Eastern part?

3)I have always wondered about this.Why does Pakistan always try to push terrorists through the LoC between the two Kashmirs and never through the Ladakh-Baltistan LoC?Does it have anything to do with the fact that the areas along the Ladakh-Baltistan LoC are inhabited by Shias.

4)Follow up to question 3.Is the fact that Pakistan never tries to push terrorists through the Ladakh-Baltistan LoC the reason why India hasn't fenced that stretch of the LoC?And are there plans to fence that stretch as well?

5)Do you think that the Blue Dot Network be successful than the BRI?

Arpit Kanodia said...

sir

does that mean we really built a helipad at PP14? And chinese destroyed it?

Ashish Gautam said...

Sir war is inevitable thats true. Timeline can't be said but someone with psychic abilities like u too is getting a bad feel. Not only about upcoming pandemic but for this war too. Multiple injections into India by PLA being foreseen at locations from hp/uk to Sikkim, Bhutan etc... Hope it doesn't comes out to be true.
Idk if this should be presented publicly n people will trust it or not but it's happening for sometime, more then a month or so... Tnx. Unfortunately we are heavily unequipped for it, in almost all domains.
N yeah master slave joint venture.

Arpit Kanodia said...

sir

but why china also trying to withdraw from Galwan for trying to become holier than thou? Isnt it Galwan is far more important strategically and tactically to cuttoff DBO road, and capturing whole Shyok can lead to China getting another route to Gilgit?

Because Indian troops captured those big peaks? and overlooking the chinese in galwan?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANGOS & AMIT BISWAS: Another interesting parallel: June 15 also happens to be Xi Jinping’s birthday.

To SANGOS: IN's MiG-29K/KUB & Ka-31 fleets being retrofitted with BNET-AR SDR-based data-links, as I have explained above in the latest upload.

To THE RAT: Don’t you think the DRDO knows about such shortcomings? Why else do you think the DRDO labs have gone overboard to come up with innovations for the pandemic? Now the focus is on producing beds made of cardboard for the temporary mega-medical centres like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HaBCA1sfDMI&t=54s

The DRDO’s top-brass has since the mid-1980s mastered the art of currying political favours through populist gestures/initiatives & hence has no fear of accountability.

To ARUN: 1) The element of surprise always exists for as long as vertical envelopment options are put in motion. The attack can then come from any direction. 2) From the eastern to the mid-part. 3 & 4) That and also because the areas are devoid of any vegetation & hence the terrorists don’t have much space for concealment. 5) Blue Dot is based on proven financial models that have been adopted by the WB, IMF & ADB. The BRI on the other hand is a one-sided formula that leads to the creation of forever-beholden parasites.

To ARPIT KANODIA: Yes. Photos never lie & the helipad was perfectly inside Indian territory as proven by the LAC claim-lines of China established way back in 1960 as well as by China’s own BAIDU map database. And a simple check with GoogleEarth will reveal that the shortest routes to interdict the DS-DBO road are the ones from Panggong Tso, & from the depsang Plains towards Darbuk. Had the Galwan River-Valley been a viable route, then the PLAGF would have mounted a successful offensive from there back in 1962 itself. But when such an offensive was mounted, it was beaten back with the heaviest casualties that the PLAGF had suffered in 1962. Since then, that River-Valley has been regarded as being quite inhospitable for human beings. In fact, I have suggested to the ruling ‘netas’ who have a fetish for constructing mega-statues that one such statue of Ghulam Rasool Galwan be constructed at the Indian entrance to the River-Valley, and such a statue should portray Ghulam Rasool Galwan as pointing his hand towards the eastern part of the River-Valley. That is the very least that anyone can do to honour the person after whom the River-Valley has been named.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Why should it not be true? Why are you so scared by such scenarios? Imtehaan ke ghadi se darr laghtaa hai kya?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Understanding the LAC with Shyam Saran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjxZ3CM7U3U

IA & IAF To carry Out Massive Paradrop Ex This Week in Ladakh:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9hFn2QWgSg&t=418s

Notice how the IAF Su-30MKI taking off from Thoise is not gaining altitude upon takeoff, but is resorting to terrain-masking flight-profile:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub37n9S1TzE

IAF Night Ops from Leh & Thoise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZmigNUCywM

PLAGF PHL-03 MBRL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuxFaPFI2Es

PLAGF Infantry Firing Drills: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fs7QV5zL3Mo

To ARPIT KANODIA: Such blatant lies are meant only for domestic consumption inside China:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjKypSu44Oc

KIDDO said...

DEar Prasun

Once again thanks for your in-depth analysis of the LAC situation.🙏

Looking at the information in CCTV's feature about PP14 and Galwan area, it seems that your analysis (given months ago in previous posts) of China's primary objection being the feeder roads from the DSDBO road into the Galwan valley has once again proven to be true. Would you agree? Does this mean that India will now have to buckle and stop such road constructions eastwards towards LAC from the Shyok?

Given the situation we find ourselves in now, what are IA's options in this area - will they have to permanently man these positions all along the current hotspots with greater strength - Y junction, Gogra, SHyok-Galwan confluence, Pangong and Spangurr, Chumar, Demchok (especially in light of our shortcomings on ISR front).

Also pls share your thoughts on Praveen Sawhney's latest piece - he paints a rather grim picture, not just for the present but for the foreseeable future as well. Are things indeed as hopelessly one-sided as he suggests.

https://thewire.in/security/with-indias-options-in-the-ladakh-crisis-narrowing-high-level-talks-are-the-way-forwardce again thanks for your

Thanks

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

Thanks of course & it seems the GoI is atleast making the right noises on AtmaNirbharta by stating that the idea of self-reliance doesnot mean seeking self-centred arrangements or turning the country inwards and its primary aim is to ensure India’s position as a key participant in global supply chains, pointed out Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla dismissing all claims that the policy will make India protectionist.

//m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/aatmanirbharta-to-strengthen-indias-position-in-global-supply-chains-foreign-secretary/articleshow/76846003.cms

rad said...


hi prasun
nice to know thatthe bnet SDR is installed on mig 29 and ka 31. . i wonder how the data is converted from russian hardware and software to wester standard to the BNET radios?
In the same light would it be not sensible to fix the bnet radios on the awacs and all fighter to hacve a tactical power multiplier ? and that te IAF should aslo folow suit?This being stae of the art data and SDR built in together.!
does the bnet give the awacs the facility to transmit data about enemy bogies in an air combat as teh US AWACS?.
will it be possible to interface the desi sdr by BEL into the bnet?
HAs china such systems to data link its fightrs and awacs.?

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lvxWpHktt-o
Bank Run crisis makes China put severe withdrawal limits on its frightened citizens
Is this report true then CCP is facing serious disaster ...And its economic military super power dream is going to be shattered for many decades..
.
Can we expect a new article detailing Indian military hardware requirements for horizontal and vertical projection ..
How within limited fiscal space indian armed forces exert military power and stop future chinese incursion pre emptively.

Arun said...

Good evening sir.

Today has been boring.You talked about August 5 being a possible D-Day.The next few days will probably be uneventful as well.You said a few days ago(last month) that you heard from the grapevine that talks between India and the US had began for purchasing Avenger,C-130Js,Excaliburs,etc.And a couple of days ago,you talked about the contingency plan to deploy USMC inside Bhutan in case of any PLA invasion of Bhutan.Have you heard any other interesting information from the grapevine that could share here?

AMIT BISWAS said...

Notice how the IAF Su-30MKI taking off from Thoise is not gaining altitude upon takeoff, but is resorting to terrain-masking flight-profile:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub37n9S1TzE

Could not find this video sir as link is pvt video.please share another copy of possible...we have never seen sukhoi lo profile take off

Nayandeep said...

Hello prasun sir..is it true that China has a far more potent and a dangerous form of another virus which they can release coinciding with the us elections. I'm asking this because was reading a desi know it all guys twitter handle and he wrote this. Apologies if this question seems to be a bit off the mark, but to common civilians like me your a welcome change and always provide the truth. Jai Hind

bhoutik said...

reposting question set from previous thread along with a new one:

* read a few interesting articles. posting them for audit.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/documents/D10703.html

https://openthemagazine.com/cover-story/is-india-still-paying-for-nehrus-china-submissive-policy/

* Lanka seems to have signed SOFA. I remember u mentioned some time back that stationing of Americans there would not be in India's interest.

http://www.asiantribune.com/node/94361

* the Hypersonic and ballistic tracking space sensors program seems interesting & moving fast. any desi plans along similar lines? i have a feeling i know the answer but humor me please.

https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2020/01/21/one-military-space-agencys-plan-for-1000-new-satellites-by-2026/

* given the nature of china & russian realism, surprised that lavrov said what he said in raisina & now ryabkov saying china should be in G7. what explains this?

* media reports say that Britain’s role in japanese F-X program would be to help develop the engines of the aircraft. the IHI XF9 seems to be quite advanced so what explains british participation?

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) You earlier wrote that PLAAF jets are not capable of terrain masking flight profiles. If the Su-30MKI on our side can undertake such flights, wo'nt the PLAAF Su-30s/J-11s etc also be capable of the same ?

2) Are we likely to see accelerated building up of our strategic deterrent after this? After all, after Doklam, we had three Agni-5 flight trials in 2018.

Satyaki

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Thanks for the replies and links Prasun Da.

A. While, Taiwanese examples are definitely achievement of Pragmatic approach and optimum usage of excellent availability of HR capital with years of investment in HRD certainly paying off dividends, for HAL, Do you think MoD should interven and categorically prioritise HAL, for strictly adherence of the timeframe for speedy development of Tejas Mk 1A, MWF and development of LIFT Version of Tejas in shortest possible of time in a media briefing jointly with CMD of HAL as also India's commitment for buying SU 57 from Russia off the self, thus burying the pipedream of TEBDF, AMCA once and for all. Also, should not HAL be made a joint stock company in the line of UAC of Russia, with ADA be merged with it ?

B. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-says-25-year-strategic-accord-under-negotiation-with-china-not-secret-2257643%3famp=1&akamai-rum=off

What is your view regarding the above treaty, could PRC use this accord to pressurise Iran to instigate the Shia populace in GB and J & K to act against India, as if there would be a Global qualition against China, Iran might be forced to find itself in India's opposition camp along with Turkey and Sunni Islamic republic of Pakistan, North Korea.

C. A week ago, there was a joint IA IAF Exercise in Ladakh as well as massive Night operation by the IAF yesterday, MIG 29, Sukhoi, Jaguar, Apaches, Chinooks in Ladakh also petroling, at the same time all Air Bases upto Arunachal Pradesh had been activated, and fighters took off at the same time at night, what is your view about the exercise ?

https://youtu.be/OcOXNMuEQ1k

https://youtu.be/96xY0uu1oVE

D. India is going all out against Pakistan on IAKN honouring Osama bin Laden with Sahadat, I think it is High time for India to join Myanmar to diplomatically corner PRC also as abettor and aider of Terrorism. What's your view regarding it. India has enough proof of Chinese weapons recovered from the dead bandits.

E. Almighty seems having it's wrath on Pakistan, civilian leadership of the country seems being infected with Covid 19 left, right and centre.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/indianexpress.com/article/coronavirus/coronavirus-global-updates-july-3-6488269/lite/

F. Nepalese Communist alliance seems heading for split as Oli is not mending. Will it lead to anarchy in Nepal, since Prachanda faction as well as opposition parties, as well as masses are against Oli as PM , and Chinese are desperate to keep Oli in power. In this light what will be India^s approach ?

https://m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pm-oli-doesn-t-budge-an-inch-in-nepal-standoff-party-stares-at-a-possible-split/story-mtqLZqAci4a2I807PGmhaO_amp.html

G. May we soon experience commencement construction of Heli Ports, in the Indian side of border with PRC, countering those of it. Also , BRO constructed 3 bridges in 3 months also a steel bridge in Nimoo which can carry load up to 70 tons.

https://youtu.be/OcOXNMuEQ1k

H. Though Chinese withdrawal may be temporary in nature, will not it Xi be cornered at his own party and some kind of loss of face for him and PLA with its bubble bursts ?

Please share your views regarding the above matters.

Thanks in advance, Dada.



Rajesh Mishra said...

What a pleasant surprise to me? Modiji went ahead to strike Balakot on my birthday and then struck Galwan on the birthday of Jin. What next?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KIDDO: VMT. India had already constructed the feeder road till PP-14 & this has a length of 4.7km. Now, due to the 1.5km westwards fall-back as part of the CBMs agreed on June 30, India is TEMPORARILY restricted to the stretch of the road out to only 3.2km. Hence, India never intended to extend road construction beyond PP-14 at Galwan. And as I had explained earlier, both China’s 1960 claim-line & China’s own BAIDU map shows the Chinese claim-line further to the southeast of PP-14, accounting for close to 1km. So the latest televised Chinese claims are pure hogwash & stand defeated by their own narratives, such as their BAIDU satellite map database. In addition, Shyam Saran in a recent podcast has shed further light on China’s overall intentions here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjxZ3CM7U3U&t=78s

As for future limits of patrolling policy (LPP), the patrolling will continue till the maximum PPs like PP-14 etc etc, but not by the IA. Instead, the ITBP will be entrusted with this task & consequently, the ITBP’s strength will have to be increased & they will have to be equipped with their own sensors like hand-held thermal imagers, vehicle-mounted battlefield surveillance radars, LORROS etc etc. This will further increase the costs of the Union MHA for maintaining the various CAPFs to more than Rs.71,000 crore that is now being spent. This, in my view is a totally wrong step, since the ITBP personnel hail from outside Ladakh & thus take a long time to orientate themselves to the terrain. The Ladakh Scouts on the other hand know the land like the back of their palms & also have a greater sense of belonging to the soil & hence are a far better option. There is also the command-n-control problem as I had explained earlier: the PLA’s BDR are part of the regular army & have a unitary command-n-control hierarchy, whereas the ITBP upon detecting an unwanted BDR presence anywhere along the LAC will have to then ask the Union MHA in Delhi for further instructions & then depending on who’s manning the desk there, the Union MHA will then be reqd to contact the MoD if further assistance is reqd & another wild-goose chase will then begin to track the right decision-maker within the MoD (either the Defence secretary or Defence Minister). And this then will have to be referred to the PMO, since the NSA there maintains centralised control on such matters & he then will be reqd to contact the PM for further instructions. And finally, if the PM remains incommunicado for a few or several hours while visiting some remote wild-life sanctuary (as had happened before), then even the Almighty will not be able to undo the damage on the ground. It is due to this type of working attitude & dysfunctional command-n-control methodologies that will create further disasters in future, kindly rest assured.

And here’s an analysis by a retired GOC of XIV Corps that explains it best:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcO1dvVnWss

My analysis: The PLAGF is INCAPABLE of launching either Divisional-level ground campaigns, or Corps-level campaigns. That’s because it has reduced most of its Divisions into Brigades, which in turn means the PLAGF will not be launching campaigns across wide frontages or even multiple frontages. Instead, its principal focus will be on only short-lived limited skirmishes & not the kind of modern conventional war which the IA excels in. And that’s also why the PLAGF has deployed only 3 Brigades along the LAC for the standoff & not any full-fledged Division. Finally, the Commander of the PLA’s Western Theatre Command is described as being an expert in ‘ambush warfare’, i.e. guerrilla-style ground campaigns & hence he will never even contemplate getting into full-fledged combined-arms limited high-intensity warfare with the IA.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: But then, here’s the flip-side of the story:

https://theprint.in/economy/ease-of-doing-business-india-still-has-1536-acts-69233-compliances-for-firms-to-follow/456867/

Too much ‘Mann ki Baat’ nowadays, instead of the far-more-important ‘Kaam ki Baat’ about spelling out detailed methodologies & roadmaps.

To RAD: There’s no need for any data conversion, only data-relaying. The architecture diagram I had uploaded at the DEFEXPO-2020 Exp thread showing the avionics architecture of the Tejas Mk.1 & upgraded Su-30MKI explains it all. All IAF AEW & CS platforms too are getting this very same SDR & the L-band data-links as well (explained in Aero India 2019 thread). Different SDRs do not require any interfacing. All they need is spectrum synchronisation.

And here’s the US answer to the BrahMos-NG:

https://www.airforcemag.com/arrw-beat-hcsw-because-its-smaller-better-for-usaf/

To BUDDHA: To me, the greatest threat now is DISINFORMATION being spread by ill-informed ‘desi patrakaars’ like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXtduMGlAi0

There is also the command-n-control problem as I had explained earlier: the PLA’s BDR are part of the regular army & have a unitary command-n-control hierarchy, whereas the ITBP upon detecting an unwanted BDR presence anywhere along the LAC will have to then ask the Union MHA in Delhi for further instructions & then depending on who’s manning the desk there, the Union MHA will then be reqd to contact the MoD if further assistance is reqd & another wild-goose chase will then begin to track the right decision-maker within the MoD (either the Defence secretary or Defence Minister). And this then will have to be referred to the PMO, since the NSA there maintains centralised control on such matters & he then will be reqd to contact the PM for further instructions. And finally, if the PM remains incommunicado for a few or several hours while visiting some remote wild-life sanctuary (as had happened before), then even the Almighty will not be able to undo the damage on the ground, despite possessing state-of-the-art hardware. It is due to this type of working attitude & dysfunctional command-n-control methodologies that will create further disasters in future, kindly rest assured.

Paramilitary forces are those whose officers who hail from the armed forces & in India’s case, only two such forces exist: Assam Rifles & the Special Frontier Force. The Rashtriya Rifles is just an offshoot of the IA & is therefore not paramilitary.

To AMIT BISWAS: here they are:

Su-30MKI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rb357xT1lo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7stwusdi6k

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARUN: There’s nothing new to share. Now just wait for the paradrop by 50 Para Brigade.

To NYANADEEP: LoLz! Don’t fall for such conspiracy theories.

To BHOUTIK: LoLz! What about all successive govts after the NehrU era. Were they all & are they still be exorcised by Panditji’s ghost? The US wants access to Trincomalee just as a logistics base & since some US personnel will have to be stationed there to man such a logistics hub, the SOFA was reqd. The era of nano-satellites & min-satellites is already upon us & these low-earth orbiting satellites can be rapidly launched, like what China has done with modified DF-31 ICBM TELs that can now be leased to private-sector companies for launching such satellites. Many times Russia does not mean what it says only for lip-service. The UK through SELEX & Rolls-Royce will be helping Japan develop IRST sensors as well as certain components of the turbofan.

To SATYAKI: 1) The PLAAF has to date never practised any such flight-profile nor has released any photo or video showing such Russia-origin aircraft engaging in such flight profiles. Similarly, China has to date not shown any data-link or SDR at any of its expos. 2) Yes, but after fully overcoming the pandemic in-country.

To SUMANTA NAG: Instead of developing the Tejas Sport LIFT, HAL seems intent on wasting time & money on the HJT-36 IJT. B) Iran won’t do that since any such move will only bring misery upon the Shias of GB. In fact, the Shias are already up in arms throughout GB against China’s hydropower projects. C) Such exercises are used primarily for terrain familiarisation by the aircrew & also for optimising air-to-air & air-to-ground communications SOPs, since terrain obstructions often cause temporary loss of communications. D) The number of China-made grenades (more than 100) seized by the IA & J & K Police over the past 90 days indicates that China wants India to know that it is openly supporting the Pakistan-based terrorist tanzeems. G) More than heliports, all 60 existing bailey-bridges in Ladakh need to be converted into bridges built of concrete. So far, only 20 such bridges have been built, with another 40 more to go. In ladakh as in J & K, the IA & IAF has a vast network of heliports built since the mid-1990s.

To RAJESH MISHRA: What’s next? Let me guess… Pakistan will give amnesty to Kulbhushan Jadhav because he has decided to convert to Islam & adopt Pakistani citizenship! And the ground for that is being prepared by spreading the FAKE NEWS about India deciding against filing a review petition with Pakistan’s courts. And the guy spreading such FAKE NEWS is this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4Pkk11BRjE

China in South Pacific: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NF3y1ouJ64&t=9s

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

VMT.

1) By when are we likely to fully overcome the pandemic? Would we have to wait for years for this recovery?

2) Would it not be a better decision to accept that covid is something we all have to live with for the foreseeable future and proceed with our strategic buildup ?

Satyaki

Anonymous said...

Hi Sir, Again a great article.

But I have some off topic question though related to our industries:

[https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/haryana-drafting-ordinance-for-75-reservation-to-locals-in-private-sector/article32005316.ece, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/andhra-passes-bill-giving-75-job-reservation-for-locals/articleshow/70374723.cms]

1. Does these kind of reservations works?
2. Dushyant chautala in interviews claim 11 other states have them, but are these ever implemented or enforced or just for public optics?
3. If yes, then how come companies not object to these gimmicks?

Thanks
Soikot

rad said...


hi prasun

do the ah-64 indian variant have a dircm capacity?
does the opertional ceing of the apache permit it to fly in ladakh?
Is the Z-10 good enpough for ladakh operations?
Is the LCH capable of opertion in ladakh as an emergency with mistral missiles .
why does the IAF use the apache more for air combat raterh than the role it was meant for ?
Agaian the primary armament for the lch always seem to the mistral missile s. why are both of them freaking out on the possible UAV attack ?
Is it so big a deal to make a smale aesa radr to be fitted on the underside or on the mose cone of a LCH for surveilance and targetting capacity? after all we have experiance ein the dsi awacs and the Uttam radar?
after the introduction of SDR do the awacs crew still have to talk to the fighters? Again if the sdr is integrated into the ground based radar would i tnot be easiy for the fughters to be updated realtime on enemy activity?
How does a fighter pilot convey message to his wing man in the midst of a dog fight?


3rd ~ EyE said...

Hi Prashun,
Im not sure if this question is relevant. But can you compare the high altitude warfare capabilities of inventories fielded by both IN and CN which are viably operable at LAC altitudes and how they may be used if in case a limited war erupts ?
Like specific roles of Z10 vs AH64 . indian T72s & Type 15, Akash batteries and S300s ?

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,

I read this article - https://theprint.in/opinion/modi-xi-are-strong-leaders-but-for-lasting-peace-at-the-lac-both-need-to-make-compromises/457228/ from the learned general. I can now claim with certainty that is he has transformed into a perfect East India company (aka Congress) politician and can vie with General Hooda (who happens to be the foreign policy and military advisor albeit an unofficial one) for that coveted post. My primary reason for barking here as a toothless dog about learned general Panag is to understand the ground shift of his perspective in his writings. I am still feeling that the necessary actions to take by the current dispensation is not up to the mark or complete in any sense. I am saying this without jingoism or incompetent gas formation or for blowing hot air sitting in the safety of my home. The current dispensation should take the proactive action to build the necessary bridges to enhance economic activities within the country and reach out to countries in the neighborhood for integrating their economies or tightly couple it to India.
It is an irony that Sri Lanka (which is 16 kms away from the nearest point from India) has not started any two way commerce to the scale required to harness its fullest potential.
Thanks, Ganesh

Unknown said...

Sir
Can we use that in aircraft like amca Or in uav
https://youtu.be/x5OJrOA-WoQ

JB

Prranshu Yadav said...

Sir, I have two questions.

1. The LRLACM talked about recently that will supposedly succeed Nirbhay, will it be subsonic or supersonic?

2. If the weight of warhead on a cruise missile decreases, to what extent does range of the missile increase? If you know of some graph comparing warhead weight with range, please share.

VIKRAM GUHA said...

Prasun Da,

Lockheed and Boeing are saying that they can deliver fighter jets to India at twice the production rate of any Russian or European defence contractor

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/status/1281100626089443329?s=20

If this is indeed the case do you think the Indian government should take up this offer?

Thank You

Ashish Gautam said...

Arey sir vo bat nahi hai. Us sb ka koi dar nahi, bs ye lag raha ki isme hmara personnel loss kafi hoga... Obviously they too may loose equally or even more but we too.
N shayad it will be bloodiest war India ever fought. After all it will happen on two fronts.

Anonymous said...

Rudra and LCH are not yet armed with anti tank missiles . What is the news about SANT/Helina ?

They say kA226 will roll out in 2025 from tumkur factory. Will Indian army get at least 2-3 squadrons in next 2 years ?


Regards
Venky

mg6357 said...

Hi Prasunji,

1. I am confused on the front that which fighter development of TEDBF and MWF ? or are these 2 same things with different names ?

2. How different would these be from LCA design & What major technological know-how would we achieve/get from TEDBF or MWF development that we didn't get from LCA development ?

3. As LCA MK 1A would be a fighter that IAF desired, I think we should focus on AMCA development after LCA MK 1A as rest of the world has started working on 5th gen aircraft or am I again putting cart before the horse in this case ?

4. I recently saw a supposedly note from Pak Govt/Pak Army telling to announce emergency in POK. Do you think there is a truth in this ?

https://twitter.com/Airpoll84644966/status/1280833594601152513

Fingers crossed for some good surprise

Thanks & Regards,
MG6357

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

Few days back you mentioned that PLA during the Lt General meeting will insist on marking its current positions on paper before withdrawing. Can please confirm if we did that because all the media reports are hinting that India has withdrawn from its current patrolling points on LAC by at least few kilometers.

Warm Regards,
Pawan

Unknown said...

Prasun da

You had mentioned about using dismantled MIG27 guns in this blog, can it be mounted on TATA Kestral.

Pratap said...

Dada, India could buy Pantsir S-1 SPAAG over South Korea Biho bulgarianmilitary.com/2020/07/04/india-could-buy-pantsir-s1-air-defense-missile-system-according-to-russian-sources/

Hope this is true. But instead of S-1 we should opt for the latest Pantsir SM variant.

Rajdeep said...

Hi Prasun,

1) What radio/datalinks do the IAF Apaches come with?
2) Also noticed that the AH-64E has "wingtip" pylons possibly for air-air engagements. Would the IAF use stingers launched from our apaches?

3) Was just wondering what the utility of the RBU-6000 launchers is against current submarines. It seems the range of the rockets is only ~6KMs. Do we really expect submarines to sneak in that close OR is it to hit submarines that are dived 100s of metres not directly attacking any ships.
4) On this channel in the context of CIWS I dont think you have discussed the RAM. It seems the US and German navy are putting them on as many ships as they can. Are these missiles optimized to deal with super-sonic AshMs

thanks,
Rajdeep

AKS said...

PKS Sir,

From the last world war, Asian subcontinent has seen many innocent people being butchered in many wars/battles/missions, etc., such as in Tibet, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Middle East, etc. Everytime, alongwith our friendly countries, we didn't proactively dealt in completely eradicating the source of the problem. But acted (sort of) only when the problem entered into our boundaries and our homes. We Indians always have a tendency of closing our senses to the problem(s). Why do we don't muster the courage to take a stock of prevailing problems around us and take initiative to effectively deal with them on the ground? Aren't this is we all do daily in our lives/work/homes, etc. i.e. zero mistakes at every step of our performance! Why the same cannot be done by our so called leaders or do they close their senses and focus only on their priorities only? If the proactive attitude with open mind would have been implemented, then the problem child's like Pakistan or China could not have affected our lives for so many years! What sort of guidance/wrap on our knuckles/beating do we require to start solving our problems effectively? I request your consideration in this matter and correct me if I'm wrong in my assessment. Please oblige!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: 1) The pandemic has been controlled globally. In India it is now an epidemic that will be fully controllable by the end of this month. And do read this:

https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/india-china-air-force-air-fields-fighters-northeast-india-defence-capability-warfare-strategy

To SOIKOT: The simple answer is: if such reservations worked, then what explains the huge amount of migrant labour whose exodus we have witnessed over the past 2 months?

To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) It is just about ‘alleged reports’ & so the Govt of India must just reply back saying such reports are rumours & tantamount to only fear-mongering. End of Story. 2) Direct industrial offsets never work. Instead smart industrial partnerships do. 3) Yes, because the brainwashing that lasted for close to 30 years cannot be eliminated overnight. 4) That has already started, if this is to be believed:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzAFJ0_17Dc

5) China will take decades to regain the turst-n-faith that it has lost on a global scale. 6) Trust the Nepali citizens to decide their own future. 7) They are not buffer zones at all & are all of a temporary nature. 8) Klimov RD-93MA turbofan is meant for the Shenyang FC-31 MRCA that will be developed as a carrier-based combat aircraft.

To RAD: 1) No. 2) It is already flying & hence the question is irrelevant. 3) No, since its power-to-weight ratio is much lesser. 4) LCH was always meant only for shooting down hostile UAVs as per the IAF’s ASQR. 5) It can be done, but the nose-section will have to be radically redesigned. 6) No talking, only data-sharing. 7) No, such data-sharing is done by Sector Operations centres & not directly by radars. 8) By radio, as has been done since WW-2.

To 3rd-EYE: That has already been in several previous threads dealing with such platforms.

To LOOKOUT: Yes. That is a routine affair.

To UNKNOWN/JB: No, because no one else has or is.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: 1) LRLACM is subsonic. LRASM is supersonic. Some idiot photoshopped the two separate images (of Nirbhay & LRASM) into a single photo & has caused needless speculation. 2) It is not about the weight, but the warhead volume. If volume is less, then that releases space of either additional electronics, or greater fuel capacity.

To VIKRAM GUHA: For sure if orders are placed for procuring aircraft off-the-shelf then deliveries too will be faster. That applies to all foreign OEMs, and not just US-based ones.

To VENKY: 1) Nothing new is forthcoming. Both missiles are dogged by developmental delays. 2) Next two years means 2022, not 2025.

To MG6357: 1 & 2) Kindly go through this: Then what will happen to the MWF? 3) http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/01/from-nlca-to-mrcbf-to-ted-bf.html 4) PoK has been in emergency-mode since 1948 itself.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GANESH: It will still be premature to reach such a conclusion. The PLA has 2.3 lakh troops under its Western Theatre Command’s Tibet and Xinjiang military districts. It has already deployed Brigades of its 4th Motorised Division opposite Daulat Beg Oldie-Debsang, while the 6th Mechanised Division is positioned between Panggong Tso and Chumar. There is another PLAGF Infantry Division opposite Demchok. The IA has moved a Mountain Division to look after the Galwan and DBO sectors (3 ‘Trishul’ Div), and the 14 Mountain Division to secure Hot Springs, Chushul, Panggong Tso and Spanggur Gap. Another Division (39) is based at Chumur and Demchok. They are reinforced by three MBT Regiments (amounting to a Brigade) and two Mechanised Regiments. In the plains of Depsang, India has the tactical edge & enjoys numerical advantage in Depsang, Trig Heights, Dumchele, Chumar, Spanggur Gap and the south of Panggong Tso. To the east, apart from the Tawang sector, there are several places in the rest of Arunachal Pradesh, including Lohit, Subansiri and the Dibang Valley, where the IA can surprise the PLAGF. Barahoti, Kaurik and Shipki La in the middle sector and the Chumbi valley near Sikkim can also be considered. One plan under a quid pro quo strategy is to recapture Aksai Chin, but it is not as strategically important for India as it is for China. Another plan calls for the IA’s infantry and special forces to launch coordinated surprise attacks on each one of the occupied positions from the rear, with artillery and armour support from the front & offensive airpower decapitating the PLAGF’s land-based supply-lines. This is the most vocal argument among Indian military planners. In fact, during his visit to the forward locations in the eastern Ladakh sector on June 25, IA COAS Gen Naravane got a sense from his men that China needed to be unequivocally told that the IA was no pushover and that the PLA could not keep on unilaterally changing the status quo along the LAC. It is for this reason that the PM went to Nimu last week to assuage the enraged IA rank-n-file.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: Not, withdrawn, but retraced its steps back by only 1.5km. Likewise, the PLA too has moved back by 2km. Patrolling piints are manned only for a very limited period of time & that too not throughout the year. This explains what a patrolling point is:

https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-what-do-patrolling-points-pps-on-lac-signify-6496840/

And this will henceforth allow even the heaviest MBTs to be moved to the frontlines:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcfENEDUEAEBn0Y?format=jpg&name=medium

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1637534

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PD0stPYk_kU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlaX-IAiAFM

Previously, the old bailey bridges had load-bearing limitations & hence the Arjun MBTs couild not be moved to the western & northern areas.

And this is what China will end up building all along the LAC to mark its permanent presence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glAqAe_v9Xc

China-Made Military Hardware Recovered Inside J & K:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzhbitUkTfQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqwegQTHRy0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=923w9n4QhcY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxeDa0YZS5Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T297v0msbBI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbodFu-yO-Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6hcCAHQ-4I

Arms Smuggling through WB with Drones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4fWa7SFt5Y&t=16s

To UNKNOWN: No, the 6-barrel 30mm cannon cannot go on board any ICV or APC. Here’s what the PLAGF’s 8 x 8 ICVs use:

ZBL-09 Irbis VN-1 Snow Leopard ICV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfP6zxyxJ_0

Kaustav said...

Prasunda

And here is the sarkari (but not active military) view & spin on PM Modi's visit to Ladakh by the redoubtable Lt.Gen.Syed Ata Hasnain

“PM Modi took political ownership and showed that one should not take India for granted, India knows how to protect its strategic Interests” - Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain

https://youtu.be/dA2KE2IzPZk

Millard Keyes said...

So if China's Ching Kuos want to let India know they are openly supporting the Pak based terror outfits, why can't this then he raised at FATF and the UN and start pushing China as a sponsor of international terrorism exactly like Pakistan otherwise it is not fair to blame Pakistan and yet let the master puppeteer off the hook! In fact all of India's terrorists are China sponsored there is absolutely no doubt about it- just that China uses Pak soil and groups on the Western border to do its dirty work.

Talking about Vladivostok claim, that is what bemuses me: why doesn't India raise the J&K State's original border inclusive of Tibetan territory? Why is the treaty of Chusul not raised to counter China's false narrative?

India's response and just toying with various ideas and yet never fully pursuing them reminds me of lines I heard in a movie or a TV series; a teenager was advised "if you shake your dick a couple of times (after a leak) it is normal, more than four times and you are playing with it".

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Why did the political Netas always show hesitation to invite Australia in the Malabar drill. India's behaviour is like get slapped by China once take one step ahead. Why didn't the political leadership decide the inclusion of Australia earlier. It shows only weakness. Please share your views.

Anonymous said...

Your reply to unknown on wheeled ICV.
Does it not make sense for Tata kestrel to have 57 mm gun ?

Regards
Venky

Anonymous said...

What are India's options if China starts to seriously train and arm the NE insurgent groups?? It's quite easy for them to do. Ever since the Kachin (KIA) stopped actively training and arming these groups,the region has seen a bit more peace. What if??

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

Thanks for presenting clear picture of situation on the ground. It's really pathetic that we haven't learned not much since Kargil. Wish accountability is fixed and those who found napping and sitting on intel briefings be sent home with their bags packed.

Warm Regards,
Pawan

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun, thanks for the excellent analysis/information as usual. I have no comments/relevant thoughts on the military aspects in terms of strategies, counter strategies, deployment, attack and counter-attack. My thoughts and questions are towards the softer versions of combat, politics, perceptions and information warfare.
Firstly, the so called veterans concede that the in service military hierarchy has brains, bravery and commitment towards Motherland and is not their exclusive premise. Analysis of in-country clown Pappu's statement, I believe, he wants the learned Generals Panag and Hooda to be the judges to say the current dispensation and military has done its job or not.
Secondly, punching a hole in China's pride with regards to its withdrawal, after it is done would be a worthwhile strategy. Announcements, re-iterating the resolve to build better infrastructure and doing it, pacifying UT J&K further would have multiplier effects on Turkestan and Tibet's inhabitants. UT Ladakh should be a prime example of development.
Thirdly, in lines of Confucius centers around the world, India should concentrate on spreading Sanatan dharma across the regions in the neighborhood. Of course, setting the house in order inside India is now on right track. Of course not the track taken by Buddhists and religion of peace people in Sri Lanka and Pakistan respectively. People from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are good for these centers.
Fourthly, integration of parts sold to Pakistan by Bharat ratna Chacha Nehru, starting with Gilgit, Baltistan and beyond will definitely help
Finally, from my perspective Aksai Chin could be an alternative gateway to Slav regions.
Thanks, Ganesh

PramodW said...

Prasunji

1) We all know that the airbases in Tibet don't allow plaaf planes to take off with full combat load, but what of the leh airbase? To date I've not seen any images of su-30s been launched with more than 2 r-73 missiles, and the maximum a mig-29 has been able to launch with is 2 r-77 bvraam. Is this the maximum that our jets can take off with from leh? Will it be enough to defend against plaaf?

2) Apart from leh, can the kashmir based iaf squadrons in udhampur, awantipur, and srinagar assist in defence of ladakh Air space in event of hostilities? Or are they too far away?

3) Russian experts have said (again) that the Rafale is no match for the su-35 that the plaaf has. Your thoughts?

4) Is the IAF satisfied with the performance of the Su-30mki? Is it a capable air to air platform in combination with the r-73/77/27 missiles? Considering Russian tech is increasingly falling behind Western powers and the fact that the Russian themselves did not buy the r-77.

5) How does the air to ground capabilities of su-30mki compare with Western fighters?
Considering the iaf used 34 year old non upgraded mirage 2000s to bomb balakot, is it safe to assume that the su-30mki has even inferior air to Ground capabilities that a cold War era western fighter?

6) How much of a threat does the mirage 3 & 5 of the PAF pose to us?

7) What is the serviceability rate of su-30 mki (pre Pandemic - early 2020)?

8) Considering very few spares parts have been bought from Russia since the global lock down, do we have enough spares for the mig29 and su-30mki for..... say a 2 week long conflict with BOTH our neighbours?

9) How many sorties per day in a short, 2 week conflict, can a su-30mki and mig-29 manage at maximum?

10) How many sorties per day can the mirage 2000 and Rafale fly at maximum?

Thanks

Aman said...

Dear Prasun Sir, 2 straight questions:
1) Do u expect India to launch offensives to draw PLA out?
2) If war breaks out, will India win & capture Aksai Chin or atleast stalemate PLA?
Thank You Sir!
Best Wishes & Regards!

Varun said...

Prasun sir, according to some reports India is in talks to buy Pantsir SPAAD from Russia. Is it true? Will India go for Pantsir over Biho?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GANESH: VMT. Both retired Lt Gens (Panag & Hooda) have years of hands-on experience in dealing with the PLA in Ladakh & elsewhere & hence I will not second-guess their abilities/opinions. Another grim reality is that even if China de-escalates, it will do so in the same way in did from Doklam, i.e. building a string of heliports to ensure a rapid return whenever it desires. Hence, my personal preference is to refrain from a direct frontal fight with the now-deployed PLAGF forces along the LAC (which will be bloody & produce high casualties) & instead undertake a counter-occupation anywhere else where the PLAGF will find it extremely difficult to recover by any military means. Only this will ensure a loss of face for Beijing. However, at the same time, a limited tactical offensive across the LoC in Baltistan also needs to be undertaken in order to indirectly impose costs on China. As for geographic contiguity with Eurasia, the Gilgit-Baltistan area & the Wakhan Corridor offer the safest connectivity route.

To PRAMODW: 1 & 2) The air bases at Leh & Thoise are forward air bases & hence they will cater to MRCAs engaging only in combat air patrols. The interdiction sorties will have to be launched from main air bases like Srinagar, Avantipora, Bareilly, Adampur, Halwara, etc etc. 3) The truth will become evident when both aircraft-types clash in future. 4) Russia has p0rocured the latest version of the R-77. 5) Su-30MKI can launch both standoff PGMs & unguided bombs by day & night. 6) None. 7) About 75%. 8) Not trie. Spares deliveries are routine. 9) Three vper day. 10) Three per day.

To AMAN: 1) With each passing day, that is becoming a reality. 2) No one wants to capture Aksai Chin as it is a worthless piece of real estate. Capturing areas adjacent to Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand will be far more lucrative & productive.

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/Conflict_on_Sino-Indian_Border.pdf

To VARUN: Pantsyr is far better than Biho. The former can shoot down incoming gliding PGMs, which the latter cannot.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MILLARD KEYES: The grim realisation has dawned, but a bit too late & therefore the costs of reversing the losses will also be higher. India’s decision-makers have since the 1950s been deluding themselves into believing that a powerful & prosperous China will be at peace with its neighbours, whereas in reality, the totalitarian nature of the ruling regime there has ensured that neither will China’s rise be peaceful, nor will its actions be rational & responsible. In fact, China’s concept of ‘active defence’ relies exclusively on deceit & deception for achieving success. The following discussions will give one some idea of how all this has come as a shock to India’s intelligentsia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdiweEPWUwo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tWGbxO3KOg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO8gaJqRa6A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXbi31xwKGI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA2KE2IzPZk

To ASD: Not only about the QUAD, but also about refraining from questioning China’s policies on TAR & Xinjiang. This type of reticence has only emboldened China to become more reckless * irresponsible. My comment immediately above explains how shortsighted India’s decision-makers have been since the 1950s & continue to be so. Meanwhile, Chin is trying various ways of uplifting the morale of its soldiers now deployed along the LAC:

http://www.81.cn/jmywyl/2020-07/10/content_9850486.htm

To VENKY: It all depends on whether the 8 x 8 Kestrel will be used as an APC or ICV. Since the IA already uses tracked BMP-2s as ICVs, arming the wheeled Kestrel to serve as an ICV makes no sense.

To PAWAN: VMT. China has now begun work on making a far wider highway (compared to the existing KKH) that will enter from the Shaksgam valley into Gilgit via the Mintaka Pass: (36 59 36.10 N, 74 51 29.83 E), where there is already an existing PLA-BDR Garrison Base (37 9 25.71 N, 74 39 32.06 E) and a Customs CIQ facility is now being built there as well. This highway will be connected via bypass roads to the Sost Dryport (36 41 27.68 N, 74 49 30.00 E) and the projected Moqpondass SEZ (35 45 53.76 N, 74 38 27.56 E)—both in Gilgit.

Millard Keyes said...

PramodW- have you ever heard Mitsubishi sales person say A Toyota is so much better than Mitsubishi OR Ford say Volkswagen is much better than a Ford? In other words which sales person will be dumb enough to praise another product as better than the brand they are selling?

AMIT BISWAS said...

Sir i can only infer is there is bulging trust deficit between junior rank and file and top generals and govt here...moreover current army leadership doesnt inspire any confidence unlike 1999 ...hope we are ready for upcoming eventualities and worst case scenario....

Kaustav said...

Prasunda
What are implications of India taking out or hitting CPEC, Highways & other projects in Gilgit Baltistan short of capturing them, but nor allowing them to function either.
While it's true, taking back occupied territory is essential, but hitting such targets will merely be CFV since it's across the LAC & not WB. India & Pak are at it anyway in other places across the LOC in Kashmir. It will soften up targets & make it difficult or impossible for them to operate.3

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,

Thanks, no more comments about the learned generals (Panag and Hooda). Knowledge and experience is priceless; however, how and for what purpose it is used is a problem. Anyway, my uber hatred to East India Company (aka Congress) is the reason for comments on the generals. I suppose others did not run into government of the day like these before.

I hope the military is prepared to re-capture the areas around Himachal and Uttarkhand. The readiness and infrastructure is in place to increase the level of patrolling and holding on to the territories.

My two cents is buying temporary peace with China until Pakistan is finished would be prudent. Firstly re-take what was sold by Bharat Ratna Chacha Nehru viz., Gilgit, Baltistan and beyond to cut off the land border of Pakistan with China and then concentrate on China. Consolidate the gains, pacify the populace and then take up Mirpur, Muzaffarabad and other areas later. This I believe will trigger the dis-integration of Pakistan and will give all the energies to concentrate on China. I hope this is not wishful thinking from nobody with zero military experience.

The Cantons and Manchus may be the ultimate people or place where the wealth is amassed. First chip the weak spots like Turkestan and Tibet, which will trigger unrest and spread to the Mongol regions. Until 10th century no invader captured Patna (Pataliputra), but once the peripheries went to dogs, it was easy and as per my knowledge Bihar never recovered.

Thanks,Ganesh

KIDDO said...

Dear Prasun

The clarity you provide is invaluable during this period of incessant deluge of conflicting information (most of it flawed or completely false). Thanks once again.

You said in an earlier comment:

"Capturing areas adjacent to Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand will be far more lucrative & productive."

What sort of forces would the IA & IAF have to contend with if such offensives were to materialise. Please do explain the force buildup in these areas at the moment.

And do you anticipate further Chinese build up around Sikkim and Arunachal to forestall any such designs by India. If yes, then what options do we have to counter that (if any).

Thanks


Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

The Road project details you share are shocking to me. At this rate in few years we would permanently lose any opportunity to annex PoK. What use is of this kind nationalist Govt. They act like leftist on Economy + Defense and ultra right on social harmony + law & Order. Even Manmohan Singh is looking hawkish as compared to Modi given he delivered Nuclear deal and kept China at bay without any unnecessary appeasement and all that without any theatricals. Sad state of affairs.

Warm Regards,
Pawan

Aman said...

Dear Prasun Sir,

In response to the second point I made in my previous query you said that it will be more lucrative & productive to capture areas opposite HP & Uttarakhand. I want to ask:

1)Does India have the capability to take such offensive actions against PLA?

2)Despite the huge asymmetry can Indian Armed Forces atleast stalemate PLA & avoid territorial losses if a full fledged war happens?

3)Does India have the capability to counter PLA SSF?

THANK YOU!
BEST WISHES & REGARDS!

Arun said...

Good evening sir.Just one question.Are we waiting for the Rafales(they will arrive later this month) before doing anything further?Or would that be a non factor in our plans since just 6(?) of them will arrive?

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir

How is MBT 3000 tank in pakistan delivery going?

No photo of tank in pakistan anywhere? Was it a fake news? Or something else going on,

Amit

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Thank you very much for patiently responding to my queries. As you told in your previous response, you are echoing the words of Nehru by saying that Aksai Chin has no value to acquire. But the patriotic views of Indians ( as said by Mota bhai "Jan de denge Aksai Chin keliye") regarding Aksai Chin, I think our political leadership have only Aksai Chin in mind.

Now the question is if political leaderships have only one desire to take it back i.e. Aksai Chin, then do you think the military will get go ahead for capturing lands near to HP, or Kailash Mansarovar area? I'm sceptical about it.

VIKRAM GUHA said...

Prasun Da,

(1) Found this thread on where the poster suggests how the Indian Army scuttled all the projects related to developing indigenous missiles from Prahar to Pranesh

https://twitter.com/drukkk/status/1281867978733023232?s=20

Please let us know your views.


(2) Former NSA S S Menon said today that post Dokalam, CHINA learned the lesson that as long as the Indian [government] could walk away with a propaganda victory, they could actually make gains and change the outcomes on the ground in their favour.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-china-ties-will-be-reset-after-lac-stand-off-says-former-nsa-shivshankar-menon/article32049764.ece

Is this how things are evolving on the ground in Ladakh?


(3) In this article the author says that Modi chose discretion because India’s real failure is in defence capabilities. Do you agree?

https://theprint.in/opinion/modi-has-chosen-discretion-on-china-because-indias-real-failure-is-in-defence-capabilities/458492/

Thank You

Varun said...

Sir, i agree with you that Pantsir S-1 is better than Biho but then why did IA selected Biho? Was there foul play involved in trials and bidding process? Hope we go for the latest SM variant of Pantsir.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: No, that will be a wrong inference, since the military leadership only draws inspiration & guidance from the political leadership. For example, back in 1999 too there was no dearth of information about the PA boosting its ammo & logistics dumps throughout the northern portion of the LoC between October 1998 & April 1999. But the information was not DULY PROCESSED into intelligence, i.e. the assessment was totally flawed since everybody—civilians & military alike—had then ASSUMED that no military mis-adventure by the PA will take place after the February 1999 Lahore Summit. In other words, no one had bothered to map/access the psyche of the adversary. This in turn was compounded by another politico-military flawed decision of not allowing the IA to cross the LoC. In fact, the civilian ‘netas’ should have declared that they had authorised the IA & IAF to cross the LoC just for the sake of recovering lost territory with far fewer loss of life, following which, after the attainment of the laid-down objectives, the IA & IAF will return back to their original positions, thereby restoring the LoC’s sanctity. If such a declaration would have been made at the outset on May 26, 1999 no one in the world would have opposed India & India would still have retained moral ascendancy and the losses of Indian lives would have been far fewer.

To KAUSTAV: Anyone blessed with sound common-sense will also possess a degree of self-respect & a moderate (if not high) sense of self-esteem—all of which dictate that projects like CPEC that blatantly run through what India considers her own sovereign territory (which is also how the UNSC resolutions describe PoK as) are a direct challenge to India’s sovereignty * dignity & consequently need to be opposed by any & all means possible. But India’s opposition to CPEC has so far been feeble & ineffective & has thus failed to cause any tangible damage to those who are the principal promoters of CPEC. Hence, when it comes to PoK, India should have no qualms about crossing the LoC to take over Baltistan & then Gilgit in successive stages, while along the LAC the effort should to win without fighting, i.e. conduct tactical military operations anywhere astride China’s G-219 Highway opposite Himachal Pradesh or Uttarakhand & occupy territory inside TAR & present China with a fait accompli, i.e. negotiate an exchange of territories & also force China to agree to a mutually acceptable definition, demarcation & delineation of the LAC. Seeking a permanent solution is out of the question since: 1) China does not possess any of the historical treaties or land records denoting the traditional boundaries between the princely state of J & K and the Tibetan administration of the mid-19th & early 20th centuries & therefore cannot negotiate boundary alignments with India, which possesses all such records & documents. 2) China therefore rubbishes the need for such records/documents by labelling them as unjust/unequal & instead tries to impose its own unilateral conception of the LAC, which is not backed up either legally or culturally or traditionally. But at the same time, China had in the past used these very unjust/unequal documentation (like the McMahon Line) to settle its boundary disputes with Myanmar. In other words, China’s foreign policy formulations are the byproducts of deceit & deception & not legally-binding international conventions/ethos/practices/norms. Lastly, the successive annual bilateral trade deficits between India & China alone have served to finance the CPEC since 2014—a point that is often glossed over. This needs to stop ASAP.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GANESH: The INC has since 2014 been riding piggy-back on any issue that is deemed to be controversial & has therefore proven itself to be devoid of any intellect. And as I had stated before, what China feara most are: 1) Losing face. 2) Losing money. If India can exploit only these 2 faultlines, then it becomes fairly easy for China to be brought down to its knees. And there are various combinations of military/economic means of achieving the desired objectives. Within PoK, the conquest of Baltistan & then Gilgit is of utmost importance since this will: 1) Give India geographic physical contiguity with Afghanistan Wakhan Corridor. 2) And through this India will gain extended geographic physical contiguity with the central Asian Republics. 3) And this in turn will make India a prominent destination for Russia’s proposed Eurasian Customs Union & this in turn will create influential economic leverage by India over Russian strategic thinking (while reducing China’s at the same time). In other words, military campaigns must be so planned & executed so as to realise the far greater geo-econimic & geo-political objectives that will pay rich economic dividents over the next 50 years at the very least.

To THE RAT: A) LoLz! Reverse-engineering of airframes & accessories is possible, but not turbofans. B) The carrier-based FC-31 won’t be available until 2029.

To KIDDO: VMT. As I had explained earlier, what’s reqd for horizontal escalation through vertical envelopment are: 1) two air-mobile Brigades like the 50 Para Brigade & the Special frontier Force (SFF). 2) Two Battalions of Para (SF). 3) Assured battlefield logistics support via air-maintenance by both C-130J-20 Super Hercules & Ch-47F Chinook/Mi-17V-5 utility helicopters. The areas reqd to be occupied need not exceed 70 sq km & such areas need to be geographically contiguous with Himachal Pradesh or even southern Ladakh or Uttarakhand so that land transportation supply routes can also be exploited for logistics support. Around Sikkim & Arunachal Pradesh the PLAGF will not engage in any buildip because in both these states, IA forces occupy the dominating heights & can therefore engage the PLAGF far & wide through artillery fire-assaults, especially in northern Sikkim & the Chumbi valley/north Doklam Plateau areas. In Arunachal Pradesh, the only routes available for PLAGF ingress are through narrow mountain valleys & tiver-valleys—both of which will force the PLAGF to advance in only single-column fashion, which are highly vulnerable to both tactical air-strikes & artillery fire-assaults.

To AMAN: 1) My comment above explains it all. 2) If tyhere is any asymmetry, then it is India’s favour. Fearmongering of the type that grossly overestimates the PLA’s warfighting capabilities & capacities is only the figment of wild & ill-informed imaginations. 3) Yes, & the PLASSF has already been countered in the arena of cyber warfare.

To ARUN: Even after the Rafales arrive, it will take a minimum of 3 years for the first IAF Rafale Sqn to be made operational. Just because a Sqn can be commissioned with Rafales does not mean that Sqn also becomes operational. Between commissioning & operationalisation there exists a huge time-gap. One must NEVER assume that a Sqn commissioning is the same as Sqn operationalisation.

Mohan said...

Prasun Sir,
Is there a high possibility that GoI will show the spine to order Military Action against China or against Pak to occupy Gilgit Baltistan before 2024? GoI ministers have made statements in the past that they are committed to retrieve PoK & GB..Can it really happen before 2024?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT: The MBTs will be publicly visible only next year at the March 23 Parade.

To ASD: ‘The Mota Bhai’ was referring to PoK when shouting ‘Jaan bhi de denge’. What the armed forces will be instructed to do in future now depends on how China decides to de-escalate or whether it refuses to de-escalate. Hence, all that the armed forces can now do is prime up for the campaigns that it it expects to be tasked with. There is still plenty of time (till this November) to attain the military objectives.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) Both Prahaar & Pragati NEVER had the kind of warhead mass required for a conventional-strike SS-BSM. The Prahaar is fact was derived from the design of the AAD, whose development was sanctioned in 1996. The futuristic SS-BSMs of the future will not only need to have single-digit CEP, but also appreciable warhead masses, starting from 300kg & going up to 750kg & this is only possible when Pralay-type SS-BSMs are developed to replace the existing SS-150 Prithvi SS-BSMs. 2) Not quite. Had that been the case, then the PM would not have branded China as the ‘enemy’ without naming the country during his speech at Nimu, & he also would not have terminated his Weibo account. 3) That’s true, because flagship ‘Make in India’ projects like the LCH & LUH from HAL are progressing at a snail’s pace, as is the LCA Sport LIFT & the Kestrel APC. These 4 projects alone would have accounted for huge production volumes had their developmental processes been expedited.

To VARUN: That’s because the IA’s preference is for a SPAAG that can shoot down UAVs or helicopters or combat aircraft on straffing runs, while the IAF reqmt calls for a SPAAG capable of shooting down gliding PGMs. You must not mix the IA’s SPAAG reqmt with the IAF’s SPAAG reqmt. They are 2 separate procurement projects.

Revo said...

Prasun da, My sincere thanks for your indepth and thought proving response.Interested to sense pulse
1. about Any pointer to believe that internal implosion is looming large in PLA/CCP in china (within a year).
2. Is citizen of china ready to mobilize themselves for their democratic right soon?