Designed by the Directorate of Naval Design (DND) of the Indian Navy (IN) under Project 71, the 37,500-tonne Project 71 Vikrant Indigenous Aircraft Carrier’s (IAC-1) construction at a cost of Rs.3,261 crore was sanctioned by India’s Cabinet Committee on National Security (CCNS) in January 2003, despite the conceptual design-work being initiated back in 1993. However, metal-cutting commenced only in November 2006 (due to non-availability of steel and hull-launch skis from Russia), while the keel-laying was done on February 28, 2009 at the MoD-owned Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL). The 260-metre-long and 14-storey high vessel was launched on August 12, 2013 in a pontoon-assisted technique, in a first in India, when limited dock space prevented further construction. CSL made a special jig to move the 104-tonne ‘A bracket’ that buttresses the propeller shafts—as long as 99 metres and 69 metres—on the aircraft carrier’s hull. It was then envisaged that the IAC-1 would be delivered to the IN by December 2018, followed by service-induction in October 2020. The three-year delay happened due to non-availability of 18 types of major equipment related to the IAC-1’s on-board Nevskoye Design Bureau-designed aviation hanger from Russia. This in turn led to a 600% project cost overrun, or Rs.19,341 crore. The IAC-1 successfully completed the contractor’s dry-dock work package (fast-cruise workup trials) in December 2019, while the wet-basin trials, conducted for proving of the propulsion, transmission and shafting systems, were held between September and November 2020. The Builder’s Sea-Trials commenced on August 4, 2021.
The IAC-1 has a beamwidth of 62 metres at the widest part and has a draught of 30 metres minus the superstructure. Up to 90% of the body of the IAC-1 was designed and made in India and involved about 200 big and small companies from the public-sector DPSUs and the private-sector. However, only 76% of the material content is of indigenous origin. The vessel has 2,300 compartments designed to user specifications for crew, systems, piping, fluids, ventilations and cabling. The sailor living spaces (with provision to accommodate eight women officers) on the sixth deck from the top, also houses 92 impressive state-of-the-art sanitation spaces, with modern showers and vacuum toilets. The DRDO’s Naval Materials Research Laboratory along with CSL trained about 500 new welders for fabricating the vessel’s superstructure. The Defence Metallurgical Research Laboratory- (DMRL) developed DMR-249A steel came from SAIL’s plants in Raurkela in Orissa, Bokaro in Jharkhand and Bhilai in Chattisgarh; the Main Switch Board, steering gear and watertight hatches were manufactured by Larsen & Toubro in its plants in Mumbai and Talegaon; the high-capacity air conditioning and refrigeration systems were manufactured in Kirloskar’s plants in Pune; most of the pumps were supplied by Best & Crompton, Chennai; Bharat Heavy Engineering Ltd (BHEL) supplied the eight diesel alternators, each generating 3mWe power; the massive gearbox was supplied by Gujarat-based Elecon Engineering; the tens of thousands of electrical cabling (running into 1,500km length) was supplied by Kolkata-based Nicco industries; Kolkata is also where the ship’s anchor chain cable is manufactured. The propulsion system comprises four HAL licence-built General Electric LM-2500 marine industrial gas-turbines. Fincantieri of Italy was hired by the DND as prime consultant for designing the propulsion system.
The CMS-71 combat management system (CMS) was developed by Tata
Power Strategic Engineering Division (TO-SED) in collaboration with the IN’s
in-house Weapon and Electronics System Engineering Establishment (WESEE) and Russia-based
FRPC MARS JSC (which supplied the Integrated Bridge Control System). Its
installation work began on March 29, 2019 and was completed by July that same
year. The CMS-71 is the second CMS to be developed by a private-sector entity
for the IN, the first being the SARAANSH CMS for the INS Arihant S-73 nuclear-powered SSGN.
The IAC-1 will be able to accommodate 20 MiG-29K MRCAs, five Ka-28PL ASW helicopters and five Ka-31 AEW helicopters. Its crew complement will comprise 160 officers and 1,400 sailors. Powered by four HAL-assembled and GE-developed LM-2500 marine industrial gas-turbines, the IAC-1 will have an endurance of around 7,500 nautical miles while cruising at a speed of 18 Knots. For the IAC-1/INS Vikrant, the IN selected the Mk.7 hydraulic damping arresting system from the US Navy, while US-based Wire Rope Industries Inc has supplied the arrester cables. Another US-based company, Engineered Arresting Systems Corp, has supplied the arrester barriers. Italy-based AVIO supplied the Integrated Platform Management System (IPMS). Other hardware to go on board IAC-1 include twin side-mounted aircraft elevators and their chain-drives from UK-based MacTaggart Scott, while Wire Rope Industries has supplied the ammunition hoisting elevators. The CBRN detection sensors were supplied by US-based Bruker Daltonics, which has for the past decade supplied almost all the CBRN detection sensors for all three of India’s armed services (while the remaining have come from French OEMs). The IAC-1’s ring-laser gyro-based inertial navigation system (RLG-INS) uses SAFRAN/SAGEM-built SIGMA-40 ring laser-gyros. UK-based TEX Special Projects and its Indian industrial partner PRATEX Power Vision Pvt Ltd–India’s leading supplier of marine glazing solutions designed, manufactured and project managed the installation of the ultra-high specification glazing, frames and ancillaries. Russia-based Concern CSRI Elektropribor JSC has supplied the LUNA-3E optical landing system and its Ladoga and Saturn deck-lighting systems, plus the Rezistor K4 aircraft homing system.
The IN’s Warship Overseeing Team (WOT)
along with CSL is responsible for the conduct of the three-stage trails process
of the IAC-1 prior to the warship’s delivery to the IN. All three stages are
detailed below.
Fast-Cruise
Work-up Trails
The fast-cruise work-up trails comprised
of the following activities:
1. Make all preparations for getting underway.
2. Station the manoeuvring watch/sea and
anchor detail.
3. Simulate getting underway and return
to port. (Day and Night)
4. Walk through all major sea-trial
evolutions.
5. Walk through the cycling of hull and
back-up valves to be tested.
6. Exercise the reduced visibility
detail.
7. Spot-check storage and availability
of spare parts and tools. Verify adequacy of stores and provisions.
8. Conduct the following emergency
drills: a. Fire b. Collision c. Flooding d. Toxic gas emission e. Abandon Ship f.
Man Overboard h. Loss of AC Power i. Emergency Ventilation j. Loss of Air
Conditioning/ACW k. Loss of Lighting l. Loss of Interior Communications m. Loss
of Steering n. Engine Casualty Control o. Flight deck and hangar deck
crash/fire drills, barricade drills, and MOVLAS drills.
9. Set General Quarters and exercise the
crew at battle stations.
10. Conduct communications and ECM
drills.
11. Anchor (walk-through).
12. Exercise damage-control party with
emergency and damage control equipment.
13. Operate atmosphere control equipment
and take air samples.
14. Operate air conditioning plants to
demonstrate ability to carry the maximum existing ship's air conditioning load
or 100% capacity.
15. Operate fresh water/seawater heat
exchangers at sufficient load to demonstrate proper operation.
16. Simulate underway conditions,
performing all evolutions and operating all equipment.
17. Conduct exercises in casualties to LR-SAM
tube-breather valves to include flooding and introducing toxic gases in the LR-SAM
VLS cells from gas generator.
18. Simulate crew transfer at sea.
19. Conduct competitive and
non-competitive drills and exercises such as aircraft tracking and aircraft
control.
20. Light-off main propulsion plant,
shift to ship's power and run all engines with steam for a short period of
time.
21. Man Towing/Salvage/Fueling Stations.
22. Set Flight Quarters as applicable.
23.
Operate the 40-tonne aircraft salvage crane.
Wet-Basin
Trials
These comprised of the following
activities:
1) Check all sound powered/interior
communications circuits between all stations.
2. Test all alarms, i.e., General
Quarters, Collision, etc.
3. Test each indication on Ballast
Control Panel.
4. Test whistle.
5. Check emergency lights.
6. Operate all hydraulic plants using
each installed pump.
7. Conduct a complete air charge using
only the vessel’s compressors.
8. Flood sanitary tanks and then
blow/pump them.
9. Operate each main vent valve in hand
and power. Following operation, with vent valves shut.
10. Operate the outboard induction valve
in hand and power.
11. Operate the diesel engine exhaust
valve in hand and power.
12. Operate on-board induction valves.
13. Test operation of all radio
transmitters and receivers using all antennas.
14. Operate all radar equipment at rated
conditions.
15. Operate all sonar equipment at rated
conditions.
16. Take and plot fixes using all
navigation equipment and each antenna.
17. Test operation of drain pump(s) from
all operating locations using each bilge suction.
18. Test operation of portable
submersible pump from each installed outlet.
19. Operate each lube oil system,
including pumps, controllers, purifiers and indicators.
20. Start RLG-INS/ESGN and gyrocompass;
determine that they settle out; take azimuth; check all repeaters.
21. Check fresh water system, have water
samples analysed.
22. Test capstans.
23. Test stabilisers and rudders as
applicable and tilting in hand, normal power and emergency. Test normal and
emergency plane angle indicators.
24. Operate steering system. Test normal
and emergency rudder angle indicators.
25. Operate each watertight door and
hatch.
26. Check operation of compartment hatches/scuttle
fittings.
27. Operate each bulkhead flapper and
each inter-compartment air-salvage valve.
28. Turn on and check navigation/running
lights for brightness and proper lenses (to be done at night). Includes Flight
Deck lighting.
29. Check air conditioning, chill water,
ventilation, and heating systems.
30. Check out all galley, messing, and service
equipment.
31. Check bilge flooding alarms.
32. Check dummy log.
33. Check all high-pressure (HP) and low-pressure
(LP) air system.
34. Operate distilling units.
35. Check out anchor windlass and brake
operation.
36. Check battery water system.
37. Check out atmosphere monitoring
equipment, both installed and portable.
38. Operate oxygen generator, CO2
scrubbers, CO burners, and emergency air breathing system.
39. Engage and disengage the clutch.
40. Test Main Engines.
41. Check out all TV monitoring systems.
42. Check out small arms lockers and
security devices.
43. Check out all IFF equipment.
44. Check out degaussing equipment
(where applicable).
45. Check out Hangar-Bay doors.
46. Check out damage-control equipment.
47. Inspect and operate oxygen and
nitrogen systems.
48. Check out all tank-level indicating
systems.
49. Check out Flight Deck
communications.
50. Check out meteorological equipment.
51. Check out graphics
preparation/display equipment.
52. Check out Weapon Systems. Check to include
loading of dummy LR-SAM at each launch station, transmission of fire-control
signals and operation of launchers in all modes.
53. Operate all electrical/mechanical
medical equipment.
54. Inspect all compartments for proper
stowage and cleanliness.
55. Inspect diesel fuel-oil systems.
56. Test and inspect jet blast
deflectors.
57. Test and inspect JP-5 fuel systems.
58. Test and inspect all aircraft
starting and handling equipment.
59. Test and inspect aircraft landing
equipment including landing signals officer equipment, arresting gear, aircraft
crash-barriers, as applicable.
60. Operate all RAS equipment.
61. Inspect paint lockers and sprinkling
systems.
62. Operate all accommodation ladders.
63. Operate all conveyors.
64. Launch and raise motor whaleboat.
65. Operate all RHIBs.
66. Test and inspect lifeboat/life-raft
stowage and launch equipment.
67. Test and inspect all elevators in
all modes of operation.
68. Test and inspect all fire-fighting
systems.
69. Test and inspect refrigeration
systems.
70. Test and inspect all seawater
cooling systems.
71. Operate stern gate doors.
72. Operate boat-handling cranes.
73. Test and inspect aircraft elevators.
74. Test and inspect aircraft
launch/recovery equipment.
Builder’s
Sea-Trials
Warship construction is a meticulous
process and still for all practical reasons, many shortcomings of a vessel
emerge out during sea-trials. The ‘Builder’s Sea-Trials’ are what actually put
a vessel to test and must be carried out diligently in a punctilious manner,
with every concerned person present on board to assess and record the
measurements and at the same time try to identify the cause of any
malfunctioning. It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that these tests, once
conducted and analysed, help make a warship safer as well as allowing it to
sail smoothly by conforming to all rules and regulations of the classification
societies. Every shipyard after constructing and launching a vessel performs a
set of tests to ensure that all systems of the vessel meet the corresponding
requirements assigned by the owner under the contract and at the same time
conform to the rules and regulations of the approving classification society. Typically,
10% of the total contract amount is yet to be paid to the shipyard after successful
delivery of the warship to the customer/end-user and in case of any faults, the
penalties will take the form of a deduction from the same. Broadly, there are
11 parameters that are validated during the sea-trials.
Draught Measurement. Draught is an
important matter of concern for any warship as it shapes and regulates a number
of hydrostatic and hydrodynamic parameters. Before measuring the draught, it is
imperative to measure the density of water in which the warship ought to be
floating and hence the specific gravity of seawater is measured. Accordingly,
the draught is measured in that fluid (same water) and in case the warship is not
floating at the required draught it is corrected since the very purpose of the
sea-trials is to prove guaranteed speed at a particular draught.
Anchor Test. A warship’s Anchor plays an
important part in keeping a vessel stationary as per the requirement such as in
ports and harbours. It is imperative for a vessel’s position to become
dynamically stable to prevent any mishap such as collision with other nearby
vessels in port. Hence, the Anchor Test is performed to check the functioning
of the entire anchoring mechanism. The following are the points outlining the
test procedure and requirements during sea-trials: A) The anchor test is
conducted up to a depth of sea of 80 metres. B) The anchor chain is dropped
freely (both from Port and Starboard one after the other). During this the
dropping brake is applied up to three times to test its capacity. C) Finally,
the Anchor is heaved and the heaving speed is measured by noting the downtime
on the stopwatch for heaving each chain length. As per rule, the hoisting speed
should not be less than 9 metres/minute.
Steering Gear Test. Imagine a situation where a warship’s manoeuvrability has been
compromised due to malfunctioning of the steering gear. The following points
shed light on the test procedure and the necessary requirements for the same.
A) First of all, the vessel should
be moving at full ahead speed. B) Now the rudder is moved from 35-degree Port
to 35-degree Starboard (called hard to port and hard to starboard in nautical
verbiage) by using pressure from one hydraulic pump and then subsequently using
two pumps. C) As per class requirement, the time taken by the rudder in going
from hard port to hard starboard or vice versa should be less than 28 seconds.
Main Engine Endurance Test. The driving and
prime component of a warship on failure can make even the most experienced
sailors and engineers worried and hence almost nine (09) measurements are taken
while testing the propulsion system during sea-trials. The marine gas-turbines
should be run for six (06) straight hours at full rated r.p.m in order to test
their performance at full load. For the initial two (02) hours, the marine
gas-turbines are run on Light Diesel Oil (LDO) and for four (04) hours on Heavy
Fuel Oil (HFO) and lastly again for two hours on LDO. This is done in order to
check the change-over process from HFO to LDO. The following are the measurements
recorded during this test: Noise levels are recorded at various places on the warship;
Similarly, vibration levels are recorded at different places; The capacity of
Fresh Water Generator is recorded; The performance of Exhaust Gas Boiler is
assessed; Fuel Oil Consumption in litres/hour is recorded and Specific Fuel Oil
Consumption (SFOC) in gm/kW/hr is calculated; Power is recorded from Shaft
Horsepower Meter; Load on Diesel Generator Sets is recorded; All systems are
checked for any leakages; and the temperatures and pressures of all systems
(Fresh Water (FW)/ Lube Oil (LO)/ Fuel Oil (FO)/ Sea Water (SW) / Exhaust Gas)
are measured and recorded.
Speed
Trials. Suppose
the warship’s end-user cited a speed requirement of 15 Knots, but the vessel is
operating at a speed of 14 knots at the required draught. What happens next is
a penalty imposed on the shipyard. However, there is a grace margin of 0.3
Knots above which for every 0.1 Knots the penalty increases. Speed Trials are
carried out to check the speed of the vessel at the required draught as per the
contract. The test is carried out at a minimum of three (03) powers—75%, 85%,
100%, Maximum Continuous Rating (MCR), or any other power-rating as per the
contract. The speed at each power is measured using the Global Positioning
System (GPS) by running the warship in two opposite directions (called
double-run). Now the speed measured as per the supposed three powers are plotted
to give a speed-power curve. Finally, from the curve, the speed corresponding
to the required power as outlined in the contract is noted.
Crash-Stop Tests. In this, the
stopping ability of a warship is assessed. When the vessel is moving at full
ahead speed, the engine is reversed to full astern to commence stopping of the
vessel. The time taken by the vessel to come to a complete halt is recorded. The
distance travelled by the warship starting from the moment the lever was put to
full astern until the warship stopped is noted. This test is also carried out from
full astern to full ahead condition.
Astern Running Test. All vessels
should have the manoeuvring capability to run in the astern direction as per
rules. Hence during the sea-trials, the vessel is run in the astern direction
at about 70% ahead MCR by running the engine in reverse direction.
Turning Circle Test. This test is
carried out to measure the diameter of the circular path which the warship
starts to traverse as soon as the rudder is put hard to port or hard to
starboard. The vessel is run to complete one circle. The diameter of the
completed circle is measured using GPS. In addition, the tilt of the vessel when making such turns is also measured.
Black-Out Test. This is aptly
called ‘black-out test’ as there is a complete blackout on board a warship. This
happens as during this test all the main generators (typically three in number)
are shut down and the automatic starting of Emergency Diesel Alternator (DA)
set is observed. As per rule, the emergency DA set should come online within a
time span of 45 seconds.
Mission Electronics Equipment Tests. Operation of
equipment such as radars, fire-control systems, optronic sensors, communications
systems, EW suites etc. are also checked out for seaworthiness in various
sea-states during sea-trials.
Aviation Operations. These, involving both fixed-wing and rotary-winged platforms, include both staggered and surge launch and recovery of such platforms in fully weaponised modes while out at sea in various sea-states by both day and night, validation of arming and de-arming such platforms, and validation of aircraft stowage/dispatch-to-the top-deck protocols.
It was in December 2013 that the Indian MoD’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved the purchase of 16 shallow-water anti-submarine warfare craft (ASW-SWC) at a cost of Rs.13,440 crore. In June 2014, under the ‘Buy and Make India’ initiative, the MoD issued an RFP to local public-sector and private-sector shipyards, including Larsen & Toubro (L & T), ABG Shipyard, Pipavav Shipyard, Goa Shipyard Ltd, Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL) and Garden Reach Shipbuilding & Engineering (GRSE). In October 2017, CSL and the industrial partnership of GRSE and L & T emerged has the L-1 and L-2 bidders, respectively. They will each manufacture eight ASW-SWCs.
On April 29, 2019, the MoD and GRSE inked
a contract valued at Rs.6,311 crore for eight ASW-SWCs to be delivered
between October 2022 and October 2026 at a rate of two vessels every 12 months. The
next day, on April 30, the MoD and CSL signed a similar contract for eight
ASW-SWCs on identical terms.
The entire project is to be
completed within 90 months from the date of signing the contract. On December 2,
2020, the first steel plate for Ship No.BY-523 ‘Mahe’ was cut at CSL.
On December 31, 2020, steel-cutting of the first GRSE-built ASW-SWC was
conducted at L & T’s Kattupalli-based shipyard near Chennai. GRSE commenced
steel-cutting of the second and third ASW-SWC (Yard 3030 & Yard 3031) on July
14, 2021. L & T will build five of the eight ASW-SWC that are on order
from GRSE (with GRSE handling the procurement and supply of raw materials and
equipment), with GRSE building the remaining three in Kolkata.
The ASW-SWC fleet will replace
the Indian Navy’s (IN) three upgraded Project 1241PE ASW corvettes (INS Abhay,
INS Ajay and INS Akshay). Each ASW-SWC will have a complement of 7 officers and
50 sailors. The ASW-SWC has an overall length of 77.6 metres, beamwidth of 10.5
metres, draught of 2.7 metres, and a deep displacement of 900 tonnes. The
waterjet-powered ASW-SWC, with a steel hull and aluminium superstructure, has
been designed for a top speed of 25 Knots and a range of 1,800nm.
On board will be the DRDO-developed
and BEL-built IAC Mod-C ASW suite that will include the NPOL-developed ABHAY low-
The ASW-SWC will also feature a mast-mounted, DRDO-developed and BEL-built RAWL-03 L-band surface-search/air-search active phased-array radar, and a roof-top Pharos Ka-band fire-control radar (above the bridge) jointly developed by BEL and THALES. It will provide fire-control for the OTOBreda/BHEL 76/62 SRGM, two AK-630M six-barrelled guns, and up to 16 DRDO-developed SR-SAMs.
172 comments:
CAG Report on IAC-1:
https://cag.gov.in/webroot/uploads/download_audit_report/2016/Union_Defence_Services_Navy_and_Coast_Guard_Report_No_17_of_2016.pdf
IAC-1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILVdnK4ptVk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xds1XMSDKDg
Bizarre, laughable & Grotesque State of Affairs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXF0V3Xsohk
IA COAS at USI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnCgJgLMzSA
While many of us will see this as a moment of pride that we have developed an aircraft carrier on our own, I wonder if it was worth all the time and money we have invested in it. Mig 29k will be an obsolete aircraft 10 years from now and TEDBF, if developed, won't be ready before at least 2035. We are the only country developing a 4+ generation aircraft from scratch in 2021 that too to fullfill a requirement of 40-50 units. This money could have been spent in more frigates and submarines. I see White elephant written all over it.
Prasun da
1) Can you provide some information about Cooperation between India Israel and Taiwan on space or defence matters?
2)Did the US put arms embargo on both India and Pakistan after 1965 but you had mentioned that by 1967 US had provided all equipment ordered by us in 1964-1965? Can you clarify?
3) What sensors and weapons had India ordered from U.S in 1964?
4) When did U.N say that J&K was an integral part of India?
5) Will India ever fully align with the West do you see that's a possibility if so in what timeframe? 20-40 years?
Thanks
Ranveer
IA Rudra WSI Salvage Efforts Not Bearing Fruit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8tSHylZEDY
Perhaps it is time to deploy this, which the IN has:
https://www.kongsberg.com/globalassets/maritime/km-products/product-documents/hugin-product-specification
How China Negotiates with India: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOtQfFM1GBY
It's like reading a manual very informative.
Hi Prasun,
How do you see present Pak Turk relationship. Will that result in any military alliance and pose a threat to India in future?
Regards,
Chintan
Possible to design and build a 50000 ton Catobar of stretched Vikrant and call it a day?
I have also been in favor of basing 1 sq naval lca mk2 along with 2 brahmos coastal batteries each at Gujarat and Andaman for maritime strike.
While not helpful for power projection it will certainly boost coastal defense.
In fact such an arrangement will eliminate any need to base even single AC in western fleet for particular use against Pakistan navy.
Add 10 brahmos equipped sukhois besides NLCA at Ins baaz and we will effectively choke malacca with FOUR 45000 ton AC worth of firepower.
To RANVEER: 1) Cooperation between India & Israel in space & military spheres has been fairly documented in various threads of this blog since its inception. With Taiwan there has been no military-technical or military-industrial cooperation, but only intelligence cooperation, as exemplified by the ARC’s aircraft going to Taiwan for periodic & major mid-life servicing. 2 & 3) All the equipment supplied by the US after 1962 & till 1967 were not ordered by India, but were given as emergency military aid, like surplus C-119 Packet transports & 8 GE-built long-range airspace surveillance radars, the last of which arrived in India in 1967. 4) Back in 1948 when the ceasefire agreement was being drafted, details of which were outlined here:
https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2017/03/setting-record-straight.html
5) India had aligned a long time ago, back in the 1960s itself. Have you ever come across an Indian who wanted to permanently settle down in Japan or China or Russia?
To DASHU: VMT.
To CHINTAN: It is purely a transactional/mercantile relationship under the garb of religiosity-inspired ideological convergence. India won’t face any threat from such a relationship. After all, from a historical standpoint, Turkish influence & archaeological relics all exist in today’s India & not in Pakistan.
To VSJ: Not at all. A 65,000-tonne IAC-2 with CATOBAR top-deck will be the next logical step, along with the construction of helicopter carriers, or LHDs. There won’t be any LCA (Navy) Mk.2 or a Tejas Mk.2. Only the MWF will be procured. In addition, the IAF still insists on carrying out maritime strike missions from shore-based air bases. The Malacca Straits can NEVER become maritime chokepoints because as international waterways even India uses them & hence any attempt to choke the Malacca Strait will backfire against India & the ASEAN member-states & East Asian countries will not forgive India for choking such sea lanes of communications. Consequently, the only place where a chokepoint can be created by India is in the Andaman Sea, while China can create a similar chokepoint against India in the South China Sea.
Don’t go by all the bullshit that routinely gets aired by the ‘desi’ TV channels & ‘desi patrakaars’ on such issues, since all such bullshit totally ignores the ground realities.
Thanks for the detailed info Prasun. Was not expecting an entire Blog post in response to my question :-)
Also, not 1 single media outlet has even mentioned that these are Builder trials and not User Acceptance trials.
Hoping that you will put up a detailed Blog post on the future Carrier Strike Groups/Task Forces of the IN - Configuration, Usage, Offensive & Defensive tactics and how the Airborne, Surface & Undersea components of the CSG/CTF function together. Cheers
Prasun,
Russian offer of 3 kilo class subs .. should IN accept it as an interim filler?
1) When are you going to explain the composition of Artillery Divisions of Indian Army and how do SFCs terrestrial strategic assets get enmeshed with such divisions and for what purpose as you had said in Thread
From Prithvi to Pralay?
2) Can you provide details about a reccee mission in Somalia conducted by Joint Us Navy Seals, MN SF PASKAL and IN MARCOS in Somalia in November -December 1992?
3)How did MK Rasgotra come to know about Pakistan's training of Kashmiri Jihadis in Afghanistan and that they would be set upon India at an opportune moment during his trip there in 1984?
4) What are the secret Defence related provisions of CPEC?
5) What happened in 1976 that created anti-US sentiment in Pakistan?
Thanks
To PRATAP: In today’s world, one cannot take pride in a manufacturing feat that has more than 600% cost overruns & which fructifies fater undergoing more than 8,000 design iterations! The same is the story about all other warship construction programmes in India, be it corvettes, FFGs or DDGs. All of them have had cost overruns ranging from 150% to 250%. And the icing on the cake was the procurement of INS Vikramaditya, which too had a spectacularly outrageous cost-overrun. The irony two decade sago was that while on one hand the IN was finalising the procurement of a steam boiler-powered Project 1143 Admiral Gorshkov, at the same time it was planning to acquire the gas turbine-powered IAC-1! And to add insult to injury, the IN’s overseers who had inspected the superstructure of the Project 1143 Admiral Gorshkov miserably underestimated the quantum of refurbishment reqd for transforming it into a functional INS Vikramaditya. In fact, sound common-sense would have dictated that a vessel left in total neglect for more than a decade was bound to suffer from significant corrosion & structural degradation & was therefore not worthy of acquisition at all. Hence, the IAC-1, despite its prohibitive acquisition costs, will have a higher degree of serviceability & availability when compared to INS Vikramaditya. And within the IOR, the PLAN will not introduce its aircraft carriers till at least 2035 because the carrier-based variant of the FC-31 M-MRCA won’t be available till the early 2030. Until then, the PLAN will have to contend with only the 24 sub-optimal J-15 H-MRCAs that it currently has.
Coming to on-board naval M-MRCAs, the MG-29K has significant upgrade potential, since mission avionics suites are getting miniaturised due to technological advances. Consequently, incorporation of new-generation avionics like AESA-MMR, integrated EW suites, tactical & SATCOM-based data-links on board such aircraft has become a distinct possibility, which will enable them to remain potent M-MRCAs till 2045. The ‘desi’ TEDBF is both a technological & financial absurdity/irrationality & impossibility.
To KIDDO: VMT. The IN does not use the term ‘User Acceptance Trials’. And as for future scenarios of the IN’s carrier battle group operations, I had already uploaded data on them way back in November 2013 here under the sub-heading ‘How Will The IN Face-Off Against The PN In Future’:
https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2013/11/naval-updates.html?showComment=1411472118452
Don’t trust the ‘desi patrakaars’ to do any investigative journalism, like these 2 recent reports:
North Agalega Island’s Secrets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKb1nZ5YnCg&t=151s
Indonesia’s Maritime Vision: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jeDudM0eIA
To JUST_CURIOUS: Not worth it.
Meanwhile, here’s some excellent news—a step that should have been taken back in 2014 itself:
https://indianexpress.com/article/india/retro-tax-withdrawal-bill-lok-sabha-cairn-vodafone-7440105/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_osnvvSNpHw
Looks like Carin Energy’s coercive legal moves finally paid off.
BRO Creates History at Umling La: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sduh6dvQcfk
https://www.tibetanreview.net/china-subjecting-tibetan-children-to-summer-military-camp-trainings-in-sinicization-move/
https://www.tibetanreview.net/china-said-to-have-ordered-compulsory-army-enlistment-of-loyal-tibetans-for-india-border-move/
China’s Robotics Patent Landscape:
https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/CSET-Chinas-Robotics-Patent-Landscape.pdf
Prasunda
Don’t burden Delhi-Washington ties with Afghanistan, or issues like democracy under Modi, excellent article by Mr.Rajesh Rajgopalan from Afghanistan to Kashmir & issues therein.
Ofcourse India & Iran have their own angle in Afghanistan, neither going against the interests of the US or CARs/Russia. Acknowledgments of India's lack of assertiveness over it's occupied territories in Kashmir is stating a fact. W
https://theprint.in/opinion/dont-burden-delhi-washington-ties-with-afghanistan-or-issues-like-democracy-under-modi/709502/
To KAUSTAV: Let's wait & see what happens at the UNSC later today, since India at the request of Afghanistan has called an emergency session of the UNSC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAoSSSlIZuc&t=515s
Meanwhile, certain clueless 'desi' internet fanboys are spreading malicious rumours about the absence of EL/M-2248 MF-STAR & Barak-8 LR-SAM on board the IAC-1. But those who are knowledgeable about Builder's Sea-Trials ought to know that the conduct of such trials without such hardware installed on-board is a technological absurdity & impossibility of the highest order.
Tibet’s Dams: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jT5mT1rLKgU
South China Sea Fishing Wars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58MO90Lb6O0
Turkey's Grand Strategy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnWubSl57_A
Are China’s Vaccines Failing? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfjRp4r5ad0
Myanmar's Chaos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81u9LoGD-QM
China Changing its Cheap Manufacturing Image: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivH_H-V5w-Q
Prasun da, you are being harsh towards the IN. INS Virat was becoming old and IN desperately needed a replacement. Russians offered something and IN accepted the Russian offer because they had no other option. I think even the Russians underestimated the kind of work needed to turn the Gorshkov into Vikramaditya. INS Vikramaditya is a great ship for the price and will serve for another 25-30 years. But you are right about design changes which leads to delay. One hopes that the Directorate of Naval design has learned it's lessons. Some questions
1) Can the single launcher Shtil missile system on the 6 Talwar class ships be replaced with VLS cells like those on the 4 new Talwar class ships?
2) Can the same be replaced on Shivalik frigates also?
3) When will the VL-SRSAM start replacing Barak-8 on IN warships?
4) Is the Project-18 destroyer project for real or just an internet creation?
5) I know it's more than a decade away but how advanced will Project 75 Alpha SSNs be? Will they be comparable to Russian, French and British SSNs in terms of quietness and firepower?
6) Will it not be better to collaborate with France on our next aircraft carrier? The PANG aircraft carrier Naval group is working on is bigger than the BAE aircraft carrier whose design we are looking to copy and also comes with nuclear power. Also, France is a close strategic partner unlike UK.
Prasun Da
Any info regarding this new Anti-Submarine Warfare Shallow Water Craft.What kind of equipment and weapons system it going host.Keels of the first warship were laid virtually on 06 Aug 2021.
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1743323
Dada. Which type of radar will be fitted over A320 test bed.. The dorsal type Radar like the netra or the radome one? When we gonna order Bombardier ISTAR aircraft?
Prasun da
1)https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/news/20050629/index.htm#17
Did the Soviets tell us to not attack West Pakistan in 1971 or else we had other plans?
2)Is Ayman Al-Zawahiri in Karachi if so will U.S launch attack to kill him
through India?
3) Can Thermal imagers look through fog or mist?
4)Does the Mahabharata say that their are more than 2000 planets in our Galaxy that host intelligent life?
Thanks
aarpee
To SUSAN: All the data on ASW-SWC has been uploaded above.
To SUMIT SEN: The very same S-band AESA as that on the 3 EMB-145I Netra AEW & CS platforms.
To KAPIL: One has to be extremely harsh, ruthless & cold-blooded when the taxpayers’ money is being wasted so blatantly. But the blame goes not only to the IN, but also to the apex-level decision-makers of that time, i.e. the NDA-1 government. Don’t forget that the IN had been asking for funds for the IAC-1 since 1993, while approval came only a decade later! Hence, there was absolutely no need for procuring the INS Vikramaditya off-the-shelf at a cost of US$2.35 billion. Had work begun even in the late 1990s, the IAC-1 would have been commissioned into service way before the INS Viraat’s decommissioning on March 6, 2017. As for the 8,000+ design changes, it again was all due to the IN’s inability to make up its mind on whether to make use of the single-engined NLCA or twin-engined MiG-29Ks. This in turn led to delayed orders being placed with Russia for all below-deck hangar fitments. The IN should have common-sensically concluded by 2005 itself that the NLCA was a time-consuming a developmental effort that would take at least 15 years to fructify. In other words, the IN committed the same mistake as the IAF, i.e. insisting on a L-MRCA when worldwide it had become the global norm since the mid-1980s itself that the days of L-MRCA were truly over & the future belonged only to M-MRCAs & H-MRCAs. Most of what I have outlined was also stated by Ret’d Admiral Arun Prakash yesterday here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_joSc_RwGM&t=14s
1) You are ASSUMING that the four Project 1135.6 FFGs have VLS for the MR-SAMs. In reality, scale-models of both Yantar Shipyard JSC & GSL show the FFGs with the very same single-rail launchers as those on the IN’s existing 6 Project 1135.6 FFGs. And if at all the six FFGs require VL MR-SAMs during their mid-life refits, then the obvious choice ought to be the Barak-8. 2) Again, the obvious refit choice ought to be Barak-8. 3) Why should Barak-8 be replaced? It ought to be Barak-1s that need replacement. The SR-SAM is still another 3 years away from being trialled by the IN. 4) Time will reveal the truth. 5) Yes. 6) The IN has already decided to stick to marine industrial gas-turbine propulsion for IAC-2 & consequently a Rolls-Royce MT-30 gas-turbine powered IAC-2 will be a better bet than a far more expensive nuclear-powered solution. After all, procuring helicopter-carriers is also a pressing reqmt for the IN, if the IN indeed is looking forward to becoming a nett security provider for the entire IOR.
To AARPEE: 1) Not at all. Nothing of that sort was conveyed to India. 2) He is more likely to be in the Helmand/Lashkargah areas. 4) Yes. 3) Do read this:
https://www.flir.in/discover/rd-science/can-thermal-imaging-see-through-fog-and-rain/
And this too:
https://thedisinfolab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/The-Un-Ending-War-III-KASHMIR-INC.pdf
Ancient Dwarika: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce_Kr-0PwoU
UFO over Teheran: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xn2kbru10c4
The Real Chaos Within China:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opJUSF3u9BU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpbzXce5l3I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPm1NkFIuf8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY7IDNjvJOI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPOG5-K5gKk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1YYSscuIyE
If the Mahabharata said there were 2000 galaxies containing intelligent life, the write obviously realised India is an exception because the decision making process, apathy and lack of a desire to break the status quo certainly does not prove there are intelligent life forms in either the Indian leadership or majority masses. If India is the world's largest democracy then the majority must be daft to accept everything they see and hear but never question! 1.25 billion people and can't even score 10 gold medals in the olympics. Unless of course the IOC introduces a new event "fuckathon" where fuck ups and real life population enhancers take the centre stage! Like you said Prasun, they are such hypocrites. Women appear all covered up and yet the Sari itself has the midrif showing so what the heck if athletes wear aerodynamic clothes like the rest of the world? The same Indians who resent "obscenity" are the world's largest porn watchers! Just mind boggling!
Prasunda
https://e-catworld.com/2021/08/06/e-cat-skl-to-be-presented-in-november-following-perfect-test/
Keep watching this till 25th Nov.
Is Farkhor being used currently by IAF !?? for air purposes.
What is the lead for the utilisation of ayyni air base !???? Will it happen.
The news about the disinformation campaign by india by the same disinfo lab was it true !???
Who do you think is coming in UP 2022 and whom do you want to get elected.
Current strength of Indian Navy against the Chinese out of 10. According to you.
When will the order of 40 tejas be completed. How many tejas had been received till now.
VEDANT
CAN ALSO GIVE ME ANY LINKS OF THE OTHER BLOGS YOU WRITE BESIDE THIS.
DO YOU HAVE ANY YOUTUBE/INSTA CHANNEL WHERE I CAN FOLLOW YOU !???
THANKS... PRASUN DA
Dada if the radar on A320 will be the same Radar as on Emb jet then what will happen to that radome 360 degree Radar which we made? A picture also surfaced of it also.
Prasun
1- the fluid situation in afghanistan - where do you see it going from here
2- why is the ASW-SWC under equipped --no anti-ship & anti land missiles. A good benchmark would be the karakurt class of the russian navy- same weight but packs a punch- 8 silos .. though karakurts do not offer anti sub features, these ASW's could well have at least 4 missiles silos.. same with Kamortta class frigates .. any special reason to deprive anti sub boats of missiles from being a cost saving exercise?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmAcZAk7oy8
Interesting video on influence of freemason order on India. Freemasonry explains how Britishers shaped the mentality of Lutyens elite and indirectly have say on South Asia. Most of Indians from independence period like Motilal Nehru and Rajagopalachari have direct freemason connection.
Britishers seem to like selecting Parsis, Baniyas, and Kayasthas for freemasonry membership. Potentially since these communities don't seem themselves as fully Indian and are also guileful.
How can India achieve true independence when her social institutions are foreign manipulated and influenced. Even Imran Khan uses masonic symbolism like secret handshake. This explains very well why India will not retake PoK, and why the status quo at LoC is the desired outcome for the powers that be.
Prasun da
Do you have anything to prove that Mahabharata said that there are 2000 planets of in our galaxy with intelligent life?
aarpee
To VEDANT: 1 & 2) Farkhor was NEVER used by the IAF because it only houses an IA-run field hospital. Same goes for Ayni air base as well. 3) It was an information dissemination effort. Nothing to do with spreading disinformation. 4) Situation is still fluid in UP, but the opposition parties do not have the kind of financial heft required for a gigantic electioneering effort. I have no personal favourites since all those in the fray are all birds of the same feather flocking together on the same tree-branch. 5) IN & PLAN cannot be compared since the PLAN has to contend with the hostile navies of the US, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, the RoK & the ASEAN member-states of Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines & Vietnam. 6) Deliveries of 40 Tejas Mk.1s in FOC configuration will be concluded only by late 2022. 6) I have no other functional blog & I don’t do any VBlogs.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/rajnath-singh-takes-stock-of-progress-of-border-roads-organisations-road-project-in-tajikistan/articleshow/84887313.cms?from=mdr
https://twitter.com/JagranEnglish/status/1420647711393476616
To SUMIT SEN: The radome-mounted AESA radar is meant for larger aircraft like the B.777 or A330. Up to four of them are projected for procurement.
To JUST_CURIOUS: 1) I see the situation improving steadily over the coming weeks. Here are some indicators:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-c4Ec3A3IQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KpurvBk1_Zk&t=26s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNbuHcD8YY4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-HeitJpEqI
2) As the name suggests, the ASW-SWC vessels will be operating only within shallow territorial waters & will never venture out into the open seas. Their prime role will be the guarding of approaches to all ports & naval bases. Hence, they will never be reqd to engage in anti-ship strikes. The projected NGMVs & NGCs will have ASCMs on board.
To BUDDHA: It has also been alleged that the Nehru dynasty was originally Kashmiri Muslim, but by the mid-19th century had converted to Hinduism & allegedly the surname NEHRU was adopted based on their original state of dwelling in J & K, i.e. they were settled by the banks of a NEHR (river).
To AARPEE: LoLz! How can I possess any definitive material proof/evidence when even the US has not been able to venture/explore beyond even 1/10th of the Milky Way Galaxy with fancy space telescopes like KEPLER? But what I can state with certainty is that the wars as detailed in the Ramayana & Mahabharata were not fought with spears, bows, arrows, tridents or maces as depicted in flicks produced by Ramanand Sagar & B R Chopra. After all, will divine beings be expected to use such weapons? How can one digest the prospect of such beings fighting with both rudimentary hand-held weapons & superweapons like the ‘Bhahmastra’? From this, we can safely conclude that the Divine beings & those referred to as Aryans were in fact belonging to Type-1, Type-2 or even Type-3 civilisations & were fighting their wars in an altogether different dimension, while the earthly human beings, belonging to Type-0 civilisation category, were fighting a parallel war. At that time, Earth’s population was estimated to be only 500 million, while that of India was 20 million & a total of 4 million human beings perished due to the great Mahabharata war.
PN Acquires WS-61 Sea Kings from Qatar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFI37zb3L50
PN’s Type 054AP FFG: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cl94lZLK7U
China's Premier Bangs His Hands on Desk in Anger:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nys6mVLFKmk
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/table-top-war-gaming-exercise-held-to-fine-tune-model-of-integrated-theatre-commands/article35667327.ece
Agni-P's TEL: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8HHkLVUcAEwm4L?format=jpg&name=medium
Habitats for IA in Ladakh: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjKOrZkFSgs
Future of India-Iran Ties: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtErUm2GArw
What Went Wrong for UK in Afghanistan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBew99OZD54
@prasun dada.
There was a story or illustration of happening between Pandit Bheem Rao Bambedkar , who had realised that the Khilafat moment and its result would be radicalisation of muslim population as he understood that Jihad would start a very violent culture among the muslim population , as stated he had taken stand with his mentor and guru a Bhramhim and this did not go well with both Nehuru and Gandhi and privately he felt Congress has become a tool in the hands of British and its real purpose was lost and its better Subhah should be the head. All the jai Bheem and meem movement's leader ultimately ( first law minister) of Pakistan and later on ran away from Pakistan to live in india in utter poverty , this same organisation still takes stand with the same people who show same mindset , I really wonder all these organisation's why they are formed and why they exist if they can not bring about any change in the cerebral status of community,
Sorry for diverging but utter facts of indian independence is that British transferd power not Surrendered power
Hi Prasun
what would be the major improvements of the latest aesa radar to b e tested on the a 320 ?
It seems the aier search , surfces searh with mti and sea search is going to integrated?
Prasun Da,
What happened to BrahMos-NG/Mini a light weight version of BrahMos Missile.
I just want you to quote where in the Mahabharata it is said that 2000 planets in our galaxy with intelligent life?
Thanks
aarpee
To RAD: Two PLAN Type 093 Shang-class SSGNs attempted to secretly shadow the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth as it sailed into the western Pacific. But they were detected by ASW sonar operators on board the two Royal Navy FFGs protecting the Carrier Strike Group. The two 7,000-tonne Shang-class SSGNs were located by specialists in the operations rooms of HMS Kent and HMS Richmond as the Carrier Strike Group left the South China Sea and moved into the Pacific Ocean. The Royal Navy had expected activity from such SSGNs and Beijing’s intelligence-gathering spy ships, and the aircraft carrier was shadowed by the SSGNs for a short period before being located by sonar. Operators on board the FFGs, which were working together in a sweep pattern, ‘pinged’--naval terminology for locating a sub-surface contact--within six hours of leaving the South China Sea, an area over which Beijing insists it has sovereignty over the sea-lanes after it built several artificial islands. Beijing operates six new second-generation SSGNs, officially known as the Type 093-class, which have entered service since 2006. Boasting a crew of 85, they can stay at sea for 80 days with the capability to deliver YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. A Royal Navy Astute-class SSGN identified a third Shang-class SSGN as it patrolled ahead of the Carrier Strike Group in what submariners call ‘running silent’ a process, in which no noise is made by the crew and allows operators to locate any sub-surface contact. HMS Queen Elizabeth is now docked at Apra Harbour, the US Navy base in Guam. Planned visits to South Korea and Japan were cancelled due to the pandemic. HMS Richmond and Kent have headed for the Japanese island of Kyūshū, where they will dock at the US Navy base at Sasebo.
The S-band AESA will be used only for air-search & will not have any other target identification mode. The on-board mission avionics suite will be the same, except for the display consoles, i.e. instead of five on the EMB-145I, the A320s will have 10 such consoles/workstations, with one more for the mission commander. These are the principal mission avionics:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iKz6Q_ukcCk/Uv-8tZToQYI/AAAAAAAAGw4/MofqzDfF0fo/s1600/EMB-145I+AEW+&+CS-2.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-9Vxd-3TYbbc/Uv-84swPkbI/AAAAAAAAGxA/rMYq0Wq3UfU/s1600/EMB-145I+AEW+&+CS-3.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ibfx3svGoD0/Uv-9RlIyLVI/AAAAAAAAGxI/VN7c3p6mXeA/s1600/EMB-145I+AEW+&+CS-4.jpg
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-57oneFIEeDs/Uv-9mHPi0xI/AAAAAAAAGxY/9yAUqDA5PE4/s1600/EMB-145I+AEW+&+CS-6.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Rqp4ipYmKZA/Uv--CQXwbFI/AAAAAAAAGxg/bqEwYkK5pKM/s1600/EMB-145I+AEW+&+CS-7.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oB4_tyBnyz8/Uv--IM-Ib4I/AAAAAAAAGxo/fILnB7EJlyg/s1600/EMB-145I+AEW+&+CS-8.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wTiF_MRS0Lc/Uv-9aSad2vI/AAAAAAAAGxQ/zFXv_cKcN84/s1600/EMB-145I+AEW+&+CS-5.jpg
To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: That's true. The Khilafat Movement, as the name suggests, was an attempt to re-instate the Turkish Caliphate & hence both M K Gandhi & J N Nehru were WRONG in supporting such a movement.
To SUSAN: It is still under development & test-firings are due to commence next year. Meanwhile, here is the GSL-built fast interceptor craft that is destined for use in Panggong Tso Lake:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8MU6XqVgAQWqAl?format=jpg&name=medium
To AARPEE: So now you are changing the goalpost locations, from seeking proof to seeking quoted verses. It will be good if you could kindly do the heavy weightlifting yourself instead of asking others to do your homework. You can make a start by reading this:
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81rq4w91g0L.jpg
That will reveal to you whether there are 2,000 planets with intelligent life either in the Milky Way or the entire universe, or whether there are 400,000 types of intelligent species in the Milky Way or the entire universe.
Hi Prasun
Thanks again for your insights and information you provide us.
Again on Afghanistan; when do you think they get their act together and go on the offensive? The us is providing some air cover intelligence and what else? What is india offering other technical experience for air assets ? What about Russia and Iran offering to the afghan goverment?
Thanks again for your reply. I just want to seen the afghan stand on their own and stop the involvement of the pakis
Regards
Remo
Sirji,
This OFB Corporatization is such a sham, all top personnel are from defense ministry itself. No talent from outside.
If we meditate enough or through certain rituals make our mind reach a higher state maybe we can contact these higher dimensional species, just like Gautama Buddha. Maybe this is why they also say that god resides in us all.
-Bhvk
To REMO: Contrary to the popular perception of Afghanistan staring at the abyss, the Afghan National Defence Forces (ANDF) are steadily increasing their re-deployments despite their logistical deficiencies. What the ANDF now needs are utility & attack helicopters like Mi-17s & Mi-25/Mi-35Ps for effectively responding to the Taliban’s guerrilla warfare hit-n-run tactics. And that is what the ANDF is asking from India. Iran can’t offer much by way of hardware. Only Russia & Belarus can. Here is an excellent explanation on what Afghanistan expects from India:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTeshaSDElc&t=5s
Pakistan’s National Security Outlook: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IyAmVaWSx0
To BHVK: 1) The entire practice of maintaining DPSUs is a sham. That’s why L & T has been contracted for supplying 5 ASW-SWCs while GRSE has been contracted for only 3 ASW-SWCs. 2) No rituals are reqd for establishing contact. What is reqd is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNp98QloFfs
2 Regiments or 40 additional K-9 Vajra 155mm/52-cal SPHs to be ordered to add to the 5 Regiments of 100 K-9 Vajras already ordered. The 40 K-9s are meant for the Sikkim sector.
hi prasun
thanks for the info on the chinese tracking th HMS queen elizabeth. i was expecting that.
in turn the chines would have given away their ssgn sound sugnature to the brits which would be dsitrubuted to US and even India.
I was expecting the the later radar to be mounted on the A 320 to be of GAN type with same capability as the modernised saab eri eye platform as we seem to have started making GAN modules. can u confirm that. MOre over CABS had enough time to develop an improved radar on all fronts.
Sir, are Resupply vehicles based on same chassis being ordered?
Prasun Da thank you for your insights on Afghanistan I usually find your observations playing out in reality .. contrary to the propaganda filled hellscape that is the global news media with regards to Afghanistan..
What prevents India from offering the Rudhra gunships on lease to the Afghan forces . Is it unsuitable for deployment nin Afghanistan ?
what about the K-10 ammunition resupply vehicle? Without them a K-9 is ineffective.
Hello sir,
We were suggesting that the upgrade for mig29k would make it relevant till 2045. No need to invest in TEDBF, waste of money & time.
But I think TEDBF is a definite go. As it can also come out as ORCA for IAF. Bcs we need a replacement for 250 su-30mki 2045 onwards.
Like,
-around 300 Tejas mk1A/mk2.
-108 Rafale (considering mmrca cancelled, and staggered purchase of 36+46+36).
-150 AMCA (till 2050).
It is around 31 squadrons.
So, we still have pretty much space for ORCA. (To replace entire Su-30mki fleet).
-Atul
Dada what about the K10 meant for supply of ammunition. When we gonna order it?
Hello Sir.So we will have 140 K9s .How many K9s do you think we should have?
And how potent a weapon will the K9 be against China?
Regards,
Arun.
Mr.Prasun
1)But weren't the K-9s tested in Ladakh not Sikkim?
2)Also they are required in Ladakh as it is the flashpoint and heavy forces are deployed there?
3) Ofcourse MLC-70 bridges can support them in both Sikkim and Ladakh but why Sikkim?
Looking forward to your views in a separate post over Pegasus row causing incalculable damage to intelligence agencies...and other info that you may have about this snoopgate
IAC will be alloted to western or eastern fleet?? does india even needs an AC for pakistan front?? I mean naliya bhuj jamnagar and porbandar and upcoming disha bases are quite close to pakistan coast as well as naval bases to cater for wartime sorties
To RAD: All TRMMs of AESA arrays being built by either BEL or Astra Microwave use GaN.
To KARNFLAKES: VMT. 1) Here is another discussion on the same topic:
Afghanistan’s Past, Present & Future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6n2kc5YLXiQ
And an excellent but extensive explanation: http://www.southasia.com.pk/2021/08/02/writing-on-the-wall/
2) as for Rudra WSIs, the IA only recently started receiving them & it will take the IA at least another 3 years to fully learn all about the Rudra’s capabilities & hence an export of Rudra WSI to anybody is ruled out. The Afghan Air Force has more than enough platforms for delivering fire-support, but is in dire need of ground-crew support since all such support was provided by US private contractors who for unexplained reasons were suddently withdrawn from Afghanistan by the Biden Administration.
To ATUL: TEDBF is a M-MRCA & therefore cannot replace H-MRCA like Su-30MKI. Furthermore reqmt of TEDBF is for no more than 60 units, which makes the entire proposition impossible to fund. Lastly, there does not exists any official project named as OCRA & it was always a figment of imagination of internet fanboys indulding in unimaginative artwork.
To ARUN: The stated reqmt of the IA for tracked SPHs was always 140, because the bulk of self-propelled 155mm/52-cal howitzers are meant to be of the MGS type.
To SANJAY: 1) They were tested in both areas, but only the Ladakh deployment got publicity by the ‘desi patrakaars’. Presently, at best the IA requires only 3 K-9 Regiments, i.e. 54 SPHs for Ladakh, which can easily come from the IA’s I Corps inventory as part of the rebalancing of forces. 2) Not quite, because in terms of taking the war to hostile territory inside TAR, the one & only option for the IA is to flow out of the Sora Funnel in northern Sikkim & descened on the high-altitude plateau flatlands as part of a pincer movement that will also involve the IA descending upon the Chumbi Valley below from the heights of northeastern Sikkim that face the Dolam Plateau.
To AMIT BISWAS: IAC-1 will be based along the eastern seaboard since facilities have already been created for INS Vikramaditya for permanent berthing at Karwar. For the western seaboard, INS Vikramaditya will operate from the Gulf of Oman in the northern Arabian Sea for targetting naval bases in Gwadar, Turbat, Jiwani, Pasni & Ormara. If both IAC-1 & the Vikramaditya are operational in such a wartime scenario, then the IN’s MiG-29Ks won’t be operating from shore-based air bases & instead the IAF’s Su-30MKIs, Jaguar IMs & MiG-29UPGs will be armed with ASCMs & PGMs for striking at Pakistani coastal targets up to Karachi.
To KAUSTAV, MILLARD KEYES & SUMIT SEN: An extremely interesting question, since the type of ammo resupply vehicles determines whether a tracked SPH or even MGS can travel appreciable distances inside hostile territory, or can be employed for making only shallow thrusts into hostile territory. So, if the IA has not yet placed orders for K-10 ammo resupply vehicles, then it only means that the IA will stick to wheeled Ashok Leyland trucks that will make use of existing road networks, be it in Ladakh, Sikkim or inside TAR, where the plateau terrain is relatively flat & hard (due to extreme cold). This also means that the K-9s of the IA in both Ladakh & Sikkim for now will be used for delivering fire-sipport for only attrition-based warfare & not for offensive manoeuvre warfare. This is expected to change ONLY AFTER the compositions of the terrain-specific Integrated Battle Groups are finalised.
IAC-1’s Bridge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-3DfOD5I94
IN Webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAR47NAWlYc
IAF Webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aXf8wMfcSE
China's Share in India's Imports is Surging: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZtTAWnTsvs
Zoji La Tunnel Update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t7vTO-6qHI
Regarding Zojila tunnel update:- how much of the tunnel(in km) has been bored till now?
Prasunda
ATMANIRBHARTA & isolating PRC as well as lowering it's stranglehold on our economy going for a toss. When the wildly optimistic Western World hopefuls pray that India is the answer to China, a pragmatic dose of reality helps. India is a country that has too many fault-lines and differences besides lack of quality education, backward technological capabilities & lack of innovation. As of now, India is unable to rise to the occassion.
To SANJEEV: Here is the update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0s7AtJk5IbQ
To KAUSTAV: The biggest identified (by the GoI) hurdle is the inability to achieve the targets set for human resource skilling/re-skilling.
It's quite funny actually. I typically run cycling tours, so the other day I was talking to a vendor of mine who imports cycles. It seems they had to unbox 2000 cycles , remove the reflectors (made in china), put in Indian made reflectors and rebox them lol. Besides I have been looking at buying inflatable kayaks, no the Indian made ones (substandard) cost 90k to 1.1 l, same cost as the highest standard American ones, where as the Chinese ones which are still better than the Indian ones cost between 40 to 50k. This atmanirbhar has made life tough.
Cant we take over the bagram airbase , defend it using bmp and t72 formations and conduct airstrikes , or else donate 10 to 15 mi 35s for the afgans to at least make attempts to capture whats lost.
India should bomb down the Taliban in Northern Afghanistan or better targets by chain of Su30-MKI with the help and due permission of Mr. Putin and the Tajikistan. BTW in between the Indians in Afghanistan shall be immediately taken out of it.
IAF CAS’ Presentation at USI Webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aXf8wMfcSE&t=13s
To AUTHOR & R: And how will such Indian military assets make it to Afghanistan? Turkey can come from the west into Afghanistan via Turkmenistan. In India’s case, what will be the entry corridor? Via Pakistan? Via PoJK? Via China & Tajikistan? Via Iran? Will any of these countries provide India with an air or land transit corridor? Kindly understand that none of India’s ‘netas’ have till this day exhibited the kind of grit & audacity reqd for transforming India into a major power. The once-in-a-lifetime opportunity came only in mid-1999 when Baltistan & Gilgit was waiting to be captured. But even then the entire apex-level Indian decision-making machinery was functioning at Neolithic efficiency-levels. India’s ‘netas’ excel only in sermonising & lecturing about performing ‘Raj Dharma’, but they in reality are totally clueless about what exactly constitutes Raj Dharma. This is best exemplified by the despicable theatrics displayed by such ‘netas’ when it comes to forcibly claiming credit for the on-going mass vaccination efforts.
https://theprint.in/diplomacy/afghan-govt-wants-iaf-support-to-crush-taliban-as-fighting-worsens-across-the-country/712182/
1) India can still support them, a 100 million donation to buy retired soviet mi24, grad and 122 mm plus replenish ammo and spares. Overhaul their soviet era weaponry.
Another 100 million to buy whatever cheap armed drones we can find globally including from turkey, based at Farkhor and Ayni along with training facilities and refuge agreement with Tajikistan for families of trainee afghans only. I guess it depends more on Russian and Central Asian mood and whether they want Talibani retaliation.
2) On side note, aren't Pakistani 250 paladins a threat to us with only 140 k9?
So Kaustav what you are saying is India as a nation is suffering from erectile dysfunction- can't rise to the occasion, only capable of a hold up than a stick up, flaccid in its desire not rigid in its resolve, prematurely jumping to conclusions yet suffers from delayed expressions!
Prasun Da.. As the situation gets worse in Afghanistan the govt will definitely ask for IAF assets along with the personnel.
Even in a hypothetical situation . Would Iran ever allow leave alone facilitate logistics to Afghanistan ?
And how would Israel react ?
Tee Hee, indeed. Rising to the occasion or rather opportunity that India has. As Prasunda pointed out, shortage of skilled professionals at multiple levels will hurt us more than poor infrastructure. India could indeed have done with more investments & investors. Unfortunately, we don't have the critical mass of suitably skilled manpower & limited technological capabilities of our own to be a superior alternative to Vietnam, Phillipines & some African countries too. India will get some but not enough or even have the capacity to handle all of the investments we need to compete with double digit growths to be an alternative to PRC after a decade or two. It will take longer & since the world won't wait, maybe never. Opportunities to get either laid or economically strong comes to those who are prepared. Even the idiotic reservation issues only serve to highlight that India can't even train, skill or educate all the young manpower it has & has to carve up the limited availability when ideally all willing & capable should have opportunities. We can't even offer the necessary medical seats for all aspiring doctors or wannabes (PGs or UGs) though we have the largest per capita shortage. Affirmative action & Reservation isn't the problem, not having enough capacity & institutes imparting quality & affordable education or skills training is. Even Enginners & Technicians have to be retrained by most industries to make manpower effective adding to costs & inefficiency. The solutions are obvious. India isn't impotent but it's not Vigorous either. Maybe not ED, but lack of Technique or Tech certainly will limit our success in commercial intercourse. Your analogy is right - Laxmi is Chanchal, one has to be fast to get her
perfect insult to India - https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1425437120030670848
now rub Mirchi to wound - https://twitter.com/AFalher/status/1425102372548775948
Hello
Why is only USN conducting multiple humongous explosive shock trials on a functional ship? They have carried out such tests on carriers, littoral ship and LPDs. Is it to validate metallurgy but why not on a sheet metal rather than a whole ship? Is it a valid test standard?
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/08/uss-gerald-r-ford-cvn-78-successfully-completed-final-shock-trials/
Prasunda,
1) Is it clear now that the current Afghan state will collapse to the Taliban in the next few months?
2) If 'yes', does not not give Pakistan a strategic edge in the region, allowing it to cause J&K to flare up again?
3) In that case, are'nt we likely to face a 2+ front war: Pak, China and pak supported irregulars aimed at expelling us from J&K+Ladakh in the next few years ?
Satyaki
Dada,
1. Although time and again you reiterated and insisted that Afghan National Armed Force is competent enough to keep Talibans at bay given financial aid and military hardware and air support from US and her allies. However, recent developments are quite alarming rather frightening. Is there any possibility of Kabul and Afghanistan falling to Talibans? Please share your insights.
2. I think India missing a trick by not buying Wakhan Corridor and setting up a military base there. Is this proposition an absurd thought (although I firmly believe Indian politicos cannot even think of this move in their most wild and daring dreams)? Your views please.
If now India can not enter in to the Afghanistan either from the sky or on the land, then we shall be prepared for the China guided Pakistani and Talibani invasion on us. That invasion may also contain the Guerilla elements difficult to be contained. BTW what is the condition of the Farkhor Air Base as on today. Is it helpful in any manners? Kindly reply.
hi prasun
thanks for your insight and answer for my previous questions. Now for new ones
1. Why can't us and india hire a pmc for air support ? Executive Outcomes did in the 90s with soviet era aircrafts and helicopters. If i am not wrong they used " one Mi-24 Hind and three Mi-8 Hip helicopters, three MiG-23 fighters, and converted a squadron of Pilatus PC-7 trainers for ground attack ". I took it from an article on pmc airforces. They mention that wagner used air support during the libyan conflict .acadami (blackwater incarnate ) has a decent air arsenal . Many of them sport light aircraft such as L-39s, A-4s, or Tucanos in their inventory. They can use the bases in tajik through india with financing from US or use wagner through indian financing with us support since US can't deal directly with russia on military buys and support . They worked together on the space front when they needed help to support the iss space station and still do. so it is possible if there is initiative and foresight from india. We can carve our space in this conflict and help the afghan people. Please share your thoughts .
Regards
Remo
Prasunda,
There are also large scale joint drills between Russia and the PLA's Western Theatre Command (incl. 77 GA). The drills involve PLAAF J-20s and RuAF Su-30SMs. Is this preparation for a potential PLA assault on us in the near future ?
Kritavarma
To KARNFLAKES: If Iran provides a transit corridor, then the Taliban will focus their wrath against Iran via Herat & will also inflict atrocities upon the Hazara Shias of Afghanistan. Hence, Iran won’t allow India any such corridor.
BOTTOMLINE: Indian officialdom & its ‘Bhakts’ can only sermonise about Chanakyaniti/Kautilyas, but know next to nothing about enacting the stratagems specified by Chanakyaniti. India fucked up big-time in mid-1999 by not extending OP Vijay & OP Safed Sagar into Gilgit-Baltistan & thereby lost the only opportunity she had of establishing geographic contiguity with the Wakhan Corridor. Even now, no one from Indian officialdom is when murmuring about India’s official political map that shows Ladakh UT’s contiguity with the Wakhan Corridor. That’s how DUMB Indian officialdom continues to be. For example, just listen to one of the so-called researchers from an Indian think-tank:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmqEJn8EY-4&t=12s
To DASHU: LoLz! Matters are not as bad as they are being made out to be. Only 9 out of Afghanistan’s 32 provinces are under Taliban’s control. The issue is being worse than it actually is by programmes like this, which can’t even distinguish between provinces & cities/towns:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sef-xOMKE4&t=16s
To SOUMYA RAY: Such tests are conducted on ALL first-of-class warships. The IN does not show them on video, but do rest assured that even those DPSU shipyards building warships for the IN all conduct such tests, whch in any case are MANDATORY.
To SATYAKI: How did you arrive at such a conclusion?
To AD: 1) Not at all. Do watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb_hzCUyTUw&t=76s
This existential crisis is helping forge a kind of national unity within Afghanistan that was never seen before. Much good will therefore flow out of this. 2) Again you are missing the point by NOT consulting a map. Wakhan Corridor does not enjoy geographic contiguity with India even now. So of what use will it be if it is bought? As I had explained several times before, India fucked up big-time in mid-1999 by not extending OP Vijay & OP Safed Sagar into Gilgit-Baltistan & thereby lost the only opportunity she had of establishing geographic contiguity with the Wakhan Corridor. Even now, no one from Indian officialdom is when murmuring about India’s official political map that shows Ladakh UT’s contiguity with the Wakhan Corridor. That’s how DUMB Indian officialdom continues to be.
To RAJESH MISHRA: Of what use will such an air base be? Especially since IAF aircraft will have to enter China’s or Iran’s airspace in order to make it to Tajikistan. Obviously India is also unwilling to wrest control of PoJK’s airspace in order to use that airspace for entering Afghanistan via the Wakhan Corridor. Didn’t you hear what the IAF’s CAS say yesterday at the USI presentation? He says he wants clear directions from India’s civilian decision-makers on what India’s national objectives are or ought to be. By that, he meant that he has still not received such directions. Here’s his presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5sYYVt5NI4
Now let’s see what the IN’s CNS has to say later this month:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JliLaXx46AI
To REMO: You are overlooking one vital factoid: Afghanistan is LAND-LOCKED. Which country will open up its airspace for such platforms to transit while on their way into Afghanistan? Because if they do offer airspace transit facilities, then they will be incurring the wrath of the Taliban, since all such countries have a common border with Afghanistan. India could have offered something tangible by declaring a no-flying zone over PoJK to prevent the PAF from interfering ONLY IF the IAF possessed the means to enforce air supremacy over contested airspace. But the IAF can’t with just five AEW & CS platforms. On top of that, the IA’s rebalancing, which should have begun way back in 2014, is still in the initial stages & will take years to muster the quantum of coercive superiority reqd to keep the PA at bay.
To KRITAVARMA: The J-20s only did a ceremonial flypast & are not active participants in the exercises. And how can it be seen as a rehearsal for future operations against India when the exercise area replicates the Central Asian steppes?
Rudra WSI Salvage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwsf8zduRmA
It is indeed surprising why the Rudra WSIs that are meant for flying over riverine terrain have not been equipped with emergency flotation systems. DG of IA Air Corps has a lot to answering to do.
IAF Searcher Mk.2 UAV Crashes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4Ns8FZORxw
GISAT-1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJGv8mdchfM
Drone Warfare Opportunities & Challenges: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsFDgHSUjLo
Sir kabul could fall in 90 days.. says reports..
Afghanistan is fighting with valour but I don't think they are managing to hold up to Taliban even though they are inflicting damage..
The chopper india donated has fallen Taliban hand is the last news I heard..
Can you give us any good news on this mater..
Prasunda
Sir, the cryogenic engine / stage failed. Another of the instances of India not cutting it. But, ofcourse, these things happen & India shall continue to progress. Failure analysis will be important but sadly the engine while a copy of the Russian one is built by India & is supposed to be more efficient if also more complicated than the indigenous relatively simpler cryo on the GSLV Mk3 which is marginally less efficient but certainly more reliable as statistics go. I am sure the manned human rated launcher will be a version of the GSLV Mk3. More than the launcher, the loss of the EOS will hurt.
https://twitter.com/rathorekaran17/status/1425334678974648322?s=20
This timeline perfectly fits in the puzzle of last two years of geo political situations...what's ur opinion
When do u expect india to get next opportunity to get back Gilgit baltistan
If you look at peoples republic of china and calculate the percentage of fdi to gdp, you will be surprised to note that it is less than 2%. It is never foreign investment that leads to high growth, the process and ingredients are different. Chinas growth was initially lead through low skill export parallely followed by massive investment in infrastructure. Then they scaled up. Read any serious research on chinas growth, it is investment lead. Now when you grow through investment at 10 percent plus, FDI naturally follows as growing incomes create a huge market for foreign companies to sell their products. The lead factor is high gdp growth and lag factor is foreign investment. It is always the growth in your gdp, indigenously done, that attracts foreign companies and never vice versa. You dont need foreign investment to boost your gdp. Calculate ratio of foreign investment to gdp in india, it averages only 1.5%. Foreign firms are not in the business of doing charity. I have worked in one and hence i know. They look for markets to grow amd will never part with their technology. They are also quite risk averse in investments and cherry pick the best, which explains the low fdi to gdp ratio. Then there is also green field vs brown field investments, you will find in india foreign investment primarily is of brown field type. Very limited green field investments. So if india has to grow, it has to practically stop wasting its time in attracting foreign investment and get a huge gdp growth through massive infrastructure investments. Now where will you get the money for it, through banks by printing currency. This a classic keynesian method of increasing aggregate demand and then meeting it through regualtory mechanism of indigenous production only (there are different methods to do it). What you will have is massive demand lead industrialisation across the country. Unfortunately the atma nirbhar bharat misses on this crucial point of increasing aggregate demand.
Regards
Kunal
Prasunda
A genuine query now! It seems that CSL has offered to make another STOBAR carrier of the same class as IAC-1 Vikrant to the IN as the bigger CATOBAR carrier required isn't happening due to budget constraints & the IN's need to have 2 carrier task forces at sea while one is undergoing refit. While that's natural why not build four more as LSDs with capabilities to carry ACVs helicopters, heavy weapons, artillery, troops & land attack rockets. A simpler & cheaper IAC-1 in essence with embarkation for ACV troop carriers. If the news going around of making another IAC-1 is true, this too can be done within 7 years & maybe at lower costs. It would make the IN, the best HADR ops ready navy in peacetime & make India a force for good rather than hegemony. I am sure, the goodwill & practical use of 4 such LSDs will ensure a place for India at the high table besides an asset for disaster relief on our huge coastline & island territories. Expeditionary ops aren't really necessary & the weapons package might be an afterthought.
You certainly have repeated this assertion of LHDs for HADR ops which is a major requirement in Asia.
The Cryogenic Upper Stage had been used in GSLV Mk II F10 is CE 7.5, it is the First Cryogenic Engine developed by ISRO, under the Cryogenic Upper Stage Programme (CUSP), having a maximum thrust of 75 Kilo Newtons (https://www.isro.gov.in/launchers/gslv) , the Russian KVD - 1 Engine as well as GSLV Mk. I has been retired. 1st Flight of the (CUS - 05) CE - 7.5 happened successfully on 5th January, 2014 on a GSLV - D5 Mission (D denotes Developmental). Prior to that inaugural flight of CE 7.5 failed on 15th April 2010, with Fuel Booster Turbo Pump (FBTP) failed . This is 2nd Failure of Cryogenic Engine under CUSP, after six consecutive successful flight. Previous flight of GSLV Mk. II saw successful flight of C15 Engine on 29th March, 2018. The GSLV Mk3 Flight had seen 3(Three) successful flights till date, 0n 5th January, 2017(GSLV Mk3 D1), GSLV Mk3 D2 on 14th November 2018 & latest on 22nd July 2019 GSLV Mk3 M1 (Chandrayaan 2), employing CUS 25 using indigenous CE 20 Engine. So, situation is not so grim either. ISRO will definitely have a probe.
Now there are probabilities regarding the failure of CUS,
x posting from other forum.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30785.0
"Quote from: PonRam on Today at 02:35 am
CUS being a liquid stage, could they have done an ignition test earlier?
The liquid engines used for flights are tested on test stands at least ahead on some prior flights. No clue what they did during the pandemic periods for this rocket.
This rocket had a prior rollback last year for technical reasons with one of the stages.
The launch of GISAT-1 onboard GSLV-F10, planned for March 05, 2020, is postponed due to technical reasons. Revised launch date will be informed in due course.
— ISRO (@isro) March 4, 2020
https://twitter.com/isro/status/1235140568222703616
The rocket was stacked again a year later for the March 28th 2021 attempt only to be destacked again for the pandemic and a spacecraft issue."
PKS Sir, who is funding Talibs? How r they able to keep managing their logistics n supply lines in a civil war type environment? Who is providing pinpoint surveillance n intelligence to them against ANA? Is there any local hand involved?
AKS
Hi Prasun
Thanks for reply. Looks like all options for the afghan government is closed to get air support. I feel Pakistan is trying push this current scenario to gain support and regain their importance in US. While Iran and Russia are waiting for some incentive from US ( Removal of sanction) from the US so that they can get involved in the conflict, Looking at the current scenario access is the problem. Taliban are capturing Border places to choke the government while Pakistan is showing the Americans they are still the best access for the afghan government while enabling the taliban so control Afghanistan which always did.
This Blitzkrieg feels like the ISIL took areas in Iraq and Syria and then Iraqi Shia with the support of the Iranian and russians fought in Iraq to get it back along with Syrian Army( with Iranian forces and russian Air Assets) to get parts in syria over long period of time with much bloodshed. All this due to lack of vision and understanding from the Americans.
You Know the funny part is that we indians are caught again with our pant down without anything to offer. If we were prepared we could have created a land access to Afghanistan now creating the access much needed and playing the primary role in this conflict. Might have even brought all the parties to the peace table.But when everyone is playing the game we are running around like a chicken who lost its head. Pointless.
Please share your views on what i have mentioned and if you see a solution for this conflict please do share.
Again thanks for your insights.
Regards
Remo
Prashun bhai, how big of a loss is the EOS3? I know there were technical issues with this launch earlier. Any chance of sabotage? How good is the security there?
To KAUSTAV & SUMANTHA NAG: WRT the cryogenic engine, there are 2 possibilities: manufacturing defect; or a component malfunction during installation/integration with the launch vehicle.
To AMIT BISWAS: If viewed with the benefit of hindsight, then yes. But if viewed in light of unfolding developments, then it is just another conspiracy theory. For instance, no one knew 2 years ago or even 90 days ago that the Biden Administration intended to remove from Afghanistan all its private contractors. India can liberate GB ONLY AFTER a comprehensive rebalancing of the IA takes place, including the raising of terrain-specific IBGs.
To KAUSTAV: CSL had first made the proposal to build a second aircraft carrier way back in 2016. But the IN was right to opt for a larger CATOBAR design & subsequent events proved this decision to be the right one, i.e. the IN prefers to have Northrop Grumman E-2T Hawkeye AEW & CS platforms on board because of the likely unavailability of the AgustaWestland AW-101 helicopter’s AEW variant (this being due to the AW-101 VVIP transportation helicopter fiasco). The IN is also right in insisting on twin-engined M-MRCAs like Rafale-Ms on board, as this will enable fewer M-MRCAs to be launched on strike sorties, since each Rafale-M will be able to carry heavier offensive weapons loads. Consequently, while fabrication of IAC-2’s superstructure can begin about 3 years later, CSL must not be allowed to sit idle & therefore the IN’s DND ought to come up with a shortened LHD variant of IAC-1 & up to four of them must be built by CSL for the IN. Such LHDs must also be equipped with VTOL-UAVs like this:
https://martinuav.com/v-bat/
Finally, here’s a good explanation of the IAC-1 by the IN’s FOC-in-C SNC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-6U0m0_wmo
To REMO: There is still ONE (01) option on the table: since global attitudes are hardening & the Biden Administration will be reluctant to see another democracy crumble, it is very much possible that the US Navy & USAF will forcibly create an air-corridor (by declaring a no-fly zone over Balochistan) through Pakistan to bomb the southeastern & southwestern portions of Afghanistan. But to do this, the US will require India’s assistance in imposing coercive compellance against Pakistan, i.e. the IAF & IN will have to go into a high operational tempo along the IB for a few months so that the PAF is faced with a two-front warfighting scenario of a kind it cannot cope with. In such a scenario, certain USAF assets like E-3 AWACS will be reqd to operate from IAF air bases located in Gujarat. In case this happens, then all the years of joint forces training between the USAF & IAF through exercises like EX Red Flag & EX Desert Flag will pay off.
If such a scenario becomes a reality, then & only then the Iranians & some Central Asian Republics will be encouraged to become bolder & India & other countries can be authorised by Iran to use Iranian airspace as air-transit corridors.
To AKS: It's obvious, isn't it? After all, all these Talibs were born in Pakistan & have spent their whole lives in Pakistan. None of them were born inside Afghanistan. Why else do you think Pakistan does not want to repatriate the remaining 3 million Afghan refugees back to Afghanistan?
And for all those who like to read about spies & espionage, here's the latest steroid:
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/91dmvMi8xtL.jpg
PLAN’s Type 055 DDG Nanchang: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DG7QFl5x-u8
PLARF’s Robotic Vehicles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrUz-xIJYcI
Elon Musk Gets This Chennai Drone Start-Up Million Dollar Funding:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oE9XszSChs
The UFO Phenomenon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtpxiNvGCp4&t=30s
1. L&T now has sent unsolicited bid for artillery after MoD rejected Athos.
As per reports , Dhanush has hardly any production due to “COVID 19”.
ATAGS is still a few years away from induction.
Cannot not MoD take over all IP of Dhanush , then distribute manufacturing to TATA/Kalyani/L&T like it was done for ASW ships ?
Does MoD want IA to have an artillery arm ?
2. If you see the whole world has been launching rockets and manufacturing goods (even India when you go by GST collections).
How is it only OFB, ISRO , PSU are hit by COVID-19 ?
Regards
Venky
Prasun,
1-Gotta give it to the pakis .. they have proved again that they are the best @strategizing.. hands down. they have made the pashtuns win the durand line for themselves .. like selling a fridge to an eskimo that too @ a premium :) ..
Like I keep saying its always the americans who fuck us up.. had they not unnecessarily sanctioned iran & Ruskies .. pakis wouldnt have dared to do this... both Iran & ruskies are using this to humiliate the americans and the spineless europeans.. there is always a section within the pentagon & the US polity who are still in the cold war era and have a soft corner for the pakis..
the military precision , speed & efficiency with which they have moved makes should convince anyone that its the pak military who are directly involved..
if ever someone should get hanged by the talibs like what the muhajids did to najebullah, it should the one who counted talibs as mere 30-40 k odd .. its all the paki militant proxies +atleast 10% of the radicalized afghan refugees in pakisatan + some % of paki pashtun military personnal..
The way they have gone about it , reminds of one of the mongol tactics of seige warfare of medieval times during the reign of chinggiz khan.. Will not be surprisedif the chinese have a role in strategizing this..
2-How have the pakis managed to mobilize arm & keep the supply line open who is bearing this cost of maintaining the taliban war machine? chinese?
3- Pakis will now ask the chinese to excuse their debts by offering up afghanistans natural resources... i'm beginning to admire them for their ingenuity..
4-- given that there is a transport corridor in the making between uzbeks, pakis, chinese & the russians .. its BRI all the way & a death knell for India in its immediate west..
5-- Can anything be salvaged out of this sinkhole situation by the Indian govt?
6-- while Biden govt says one thing the pentagon has something else to say about the situation..
Hi Prasun,
General Petraeus, former US commander in Afghanistan presenting his views
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P89blMVeAdQ
Regards
Raghu
Prasun,
1- is the GISAT1 completely lost of can something be salvaged? how soon can we have another one ?
Prasun Da,
Any info regarding the Project 15 Delhi class DDG stepped life-extension programme.When it will be implemented with what new missiles,radar and sensors will be added in these upgrade.
Sir thanks for your in-depth article..
Your writing is always worth reading for knowledge and detail description..and binary analysis.
I am amazed and shocked at the speed of Taliban onslaught..
The way they are being helped by china pakistan and some other state
Alliance of democracy fails to apprehend the impending disaster..
Frankly with Orthodox mentality and lack of strong political will India is mere spectator of the things happening in Afganistan and things looking grimmer day by day.
To BHOUTIK & JUST_CURIOUS: It is a material loss, but as far as satellites go, a replacement can be readied within 8 months. Because when such satellites are ordered, they are done as a batch & hence a replacement can be constructed within 60 days.
To VENKY: The pandemic-related disruptions were indeed responsible for the delays & these included the disruptions in supplies of components by overseas vendors. But the good news is that series-production has already been ramped up & all the delayed schedules will be overcome this year itself so that the original production targets are restored & achieved.
To JUST_CURIOUS: Let us not prematurely get depressed. As I had stated earlier, it is only a matter of time before Herat & Kandahar are re-taken by the ANDSF. The US is well on its way to deliver immediate air-support, while the airports of Bagram, Kabul, Kandahar & Kunduz will soon be reclaimed by the ANDSF & security assistance forces from the US & UK will secure such airports.
To SUSAN: GoogleEarth imagery of the naval dockyard in Mumbai will very clearly show you the mid-life refit work that is presently underway on the first 2 Project 15 DDGs.
To BUDDHA: VMT, but don’t get too taken in by the unfolding developments inside Afghanistan. Instead, enjoy the new revelations about the Kulbhushan Jadhav adduction case from here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qAeOlISp_I&t=30s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtehtTjIQl0
Mr. Prasun
https://youtu.be/l5sYYVt5NI4
1) What does the IAF Chief mean by armed drones "we have it have we gone to the nest level we have"?
2)So IAF fired weapons from Apaches near Leh which weapons given that it can only carry 45% payload operating from there?
Thank you
Sanjay
Hi Prasun,
Following up on Susan, what are the complete details about the midlife upgrade of these p-15 destroyers? Are these getting mfstar or will they retain/upgrade existing Russian radars
@prasun da
1. the answer you gave to ARPI about soviets never asking India to change status on wesytrn border in 19712 is completely opposite to what you answered me when I asked the same.
2. i think Afghan forces are deliberately trying to let the Taliban capture areas and stretch themselves.
3. why did India give up wheeled howitzer, think they were best for himachal Uttarakhand while Vajra good for Ladakh, sikkim, Arunachal
4. any chance Iran giving us corridor to attack taliban in lieu of smooth nuclear deal
5. why China so friendly to taliban
6. any chance IN buying Thai Chakri Norbut LHD
7. hypothetical queery normal ships use 3 lade propeller, warship 5 blade, SSBN/SSGN/SSN use 7 blade propeller to make it quiet, can a 9 blade propeller be made for ultra quit submarine
thanks
Joydeep GHOSH
To SANJAY: 1) The IAF’s CAS was referring to the Harpy anti-radar drones procured in 1996 & Harop attack drones procured in 2012. 2) Both Hellfire ATGMs & 70mm Hydra unguided rockets, plus the chin-mounted cannons.
To SANJEEV: The details were all uploaded here:
http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/08/indian-navy-places-bulk-order-for-sdrs.html
To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) The answer I had given you was about the eastern front in 1971. Kindly re-check. 3) The MGS reqmt has not been shelved. 4) I had already explained above why this is not possible. 6) It isn’t an LHD. But a STOBAR aircraft carrier. 7) Hypothetical answer given as a question: has any navy in this world done that so far?
Some data on the Tejas Mk.1A:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8p4nmOVUAkKhpR?format=jpg&name=medium
Thanks for the reply Mr.Prasun
Even I thought the same about the armed drones the CAS was referring to the Kamikaze Haroo and Harpy
Sanjay
To SANJAY: By 2023 HAL will begin flight-testing the unmanned Combat Air Teaming System (CATS) family of ‘loyal wingmen’ or ‘manned-unmanned warriors’ that was showcased last February during the Aero India-2021 expo.
Prasunda,
1)With the Taliban victory in AFG, wo'nt separatist elements in Pak such as the TTP and Baloch lose a sanctuary, thereby ending those insurgencies ?
2) Wo'nt the resulting freed up forces in Pak give it an edge on the IB/LC, at a time when our forces are also tied up by the PLA on the LAC ?
Ashwatthama
Good morning Sir,
Can system like CATS help airforce boost combat efficacy or even eliminate the need of more squadrons?
Dear Prasun
1. Can you pls elaborate on the P15 DDG upgrades - Brahmos? VLS Barak/Shtil? Towed Array Sonars? New Radars & EW suites?
2. From the pics of Hashimara (which u said were 6 months old) one can still see 4-5 Mig27s near the hangars. Whats the fate of these aircraft and their individual parts - Engines, Airframes, Avionics/Electronics? Will they simply be scrapped or put to some use in some form?
3. Will more Mig29Ks be ordered or are the present numbers sufficient for both carriers?
4. With 40 K9 systems being ordered now whats the fate of the MGS systems? Any movement on that front? Which one is the lead contender?
5. How realistic is the LCA Mk1A delivery schedule mentioned by HAL Chairman?
6. Could you elaborate on the composition of the Army's IBGs like you provided detailed descriptions of the PLA's Combined Arms Brigades?
Thanks
Prasun Sir, From INS Vikrant top view it seems like 2 out of 4 SRGMs were removed, and now the Carrier has only 2 CIWS left to defend itself which cant provide 360 degree cover..Please share your opinion on this.
Behold the IAC-1/Vikrant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_x44ABQgqQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ETl3LbFn_8
@prasun da
1. i clearly remember when i asked why IA officer who captured Turtuk, even after doing recce of Skardu just across the mountain separating the 2 places n asking 2 days to capture Skardu was told to stand down. You said Soviet Union had given 2 week time window for regime change in east, with condition that no change in west other China might attack forcing it to intervene.
2. Chakri norbut built in 1995 is 20 yrs younger to gorshkov/vikramaditya and was inducted in 1997, and its 8 harriers were withdrawn in 2008 since then it used as LHD with only 4 deployment a year, 2-3 times as 1 month deployment and 4th time as annual royal cruise when thai royal family enjoy the entire ship for themselves. If IN gets it the ship that otherwise sits idle can be used as L;HD with emergency landing strip for navy jets.
3. so as per you 9 blade propeller for subs is not technically possible.
thanks
Joydeep Ghosh
Dada great article
Whats not clear is what will constitute the air wing of IAC-1
Though i reckon you have time again reiterated that available Mig29K will be sufficient for catering to both of the carriers. Just wanted to understand that
1. Why there is so fuss a out lifts domesnions, type of new aircracts such as rafale and super hornets being issued RFIs
2. If the need for additional mig 29k is there why we have not placed the orders yet. Supposedly if we place the orders in 2022 start when at the earliest we can get the mig 29Ks
3. There are news in defense circles that SRGM 76 gun mounts have been reduced to 2 instead of originally planned 4 nos.
4. What will be the constituents of Carrier battle Group of IAC-1 is it Kolkata Class, Delhi Class and what type of frigates will be accompanying it
Dada, From the looks of the deck , it looks to have much better deck compared to Vikramaditya , but this can be proved only after the landings and take off of the air complement !! lets wait and see
Prasun da
https://youtu.be/3WxY_QUmjMU
So China and Pakistan trying to act like U.S and India respectively.
The recent Pakistani narrative seems ditto copy of India's until very recently that terror and talks can't go together.
Recent Pakistani rhetoric:
India must create an enabling environment.
India must stop destabilizing activities.
India must take one step forward.
But I don't think the Chinese govt will openly name India as the U.S policy was to openly persuade Pakistan to crackdown on terror groups because that will be official Chinese sponsorship of Pakistani National Security State's narrative.
This was also evidenced in Pak NSA talk at U.S Institute of Peace.
What do you think?
Ranveer
Sir, why is India experiencing floods so frequently? We are seeing massive floods in some state or the other every year resulting in heavy deaths? Is it callous urbanisation or climate change? What steps should we take to prevent this?
To ASHWATTHAMA: 1) No, because they are not based in Afghanistan, but in the lawless badlands of Balochistan & the erstwhile FATA that are extremely remote & have no connectivity of any sort. 2) Hence, the PA & FC will both continue to be heavily bogged down in those badlands.
To PM: Combat efficacy, yes, in terms of delivering greater quantum of explosive ordnance. But one will still require manned MRCAs to control such unmanned vehicles & hence the reqmt for manned MRCAs won’t diminish.
To KIDDO: 1) Have already done so in the past quite a few times. 2) They are all scrap material now, awaiting disposal. 3) The present quantum of MiG-29Ks is enough for 2 aircraft carriers. 4) MGS procurement is still in the RFI stage. 5) It all depends on the flight-test schedules, but the technological risks/challenges will be significantly lesser. 6) Those are all still being worked out & won’t be finalised till the end of next year.
To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Just as I had suspected, you have conflated someone else’s comments with mine. As explained in the thread I had uploaded on March 20, 2020 that dealt with high-altitude plateaux warfare, the IA had planned to advance only up to Oltinthang, not Skardu. 2) LPDs, LPHs & LHDs all have a below-deck well in addition to helicopter hangars. The RTN aircraft carrier does not have a well for housing hovercraft. 3) As per all the world’s major navies. Hence, I’m nobody to comment either in favour or against it.
To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: 1) MiG-29Ks, Ka-28PLs & Ka-31s. The fuss about the elevator dimensions is originating from ‘nalaayak desi’ internet fanboys. 2) There’s no need for additional MiG-29Ks. 3) Yes, because this will cerate the space reqd for the vertically-launched & DRDO-developed SR-SAMs. 4) Any aircraft carrier at most requires either four escorting warships (DDGs) or six FFGs, plus one SSGN.
To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: Of course, because it was designed from the outset to cater to the IN’s reqmts, whereas the INS Vikramaditya had to be ‘modified’ & the scope of such modifications was minimal because the principal superstructure had already been built in the late 1980s. Here are 2 additional videos that explain quite a lot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Pnh-i_P_c4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhLMPaNXgdU
But kindly ignore the ill-informed rants from the ‘Nalaayak Bandalbaaz’ from NDTV who is erroneously claiming that the LM-2500 gas-turbines came from Lockheed Martin, and that the PLA Navy’s Carrier Battle Group is poised to enter the IOR anytime now!!!
To RANVEER: The way matters are unravelling inside Pakistan, all that it will take to reduce that country into a nett defaulter is for the IMF to postpone its next tranche of funds from this September till this December.
To KAPIL: Why? Because one reaps only what one sows, as per the laws of Mother Nature & the Cosmos. Hence, the more tourism-related infrastructure come up on Uttarakhand & Himachal Pradesh, the greater will be the greed on the part of building contractors to disregard the laid-down guidelines in order to maximise their profit margins & as a result of all this, there will be greater unregulated deforestation, greater cutting down of mountains & all the excavated soil & boulders will be recklessly allowed to hurtle down the valleys unchecked, which in turn will make the rivers even narrower, making it far more difficult for the water-flows to remain uncluttered & seamless. In short, the process of building a NATION OF IDIOTS is being greatly accelerated.
Prasunda,
1) Wo'nt Pak's effective conquest of Afghanistan via the Taliban give Pak access to Afghanistan's $9 billion forex reserves ?
2) In addition, dose'nt the leverage Pak gained by the events in Afghanistan make it all the more likely that the IMF would continue giving its tranches of funds on time ?
3) Even if the Baloch fighters and FATA insurgents are local, wo'nt the Taliban victory make it more difficult for these elements to get supplies of arms/ammunition for their struggle ?
Ashwatthama
There are a number of reports of an explosive buildup by China of its nuclear forces. The buildup (at least a few hundred silos that could hold MIRVed DF-41s) then brings China to nuclear parity with the US, possibly more.
1) What is the aim behind such a buildup when what China had earlier was a credible deterrent vis a vis the US ?
2) When China has a few thousand warheads, wo'nt our deterrent lose credibility unless it is also substantially built up (not necessarily matching numbers exactly)?
3) Wo'nt such a powerful nuclear force allow China to coerce us not to retaliate to a first use by Pak of tactical nukes in a conflict ?
Satyaki
Prasun da,
With latest fiasco unfolding in China on the two Michaels; would like to ask you:
1. Is Huawei really a national security threat to India that it had to be left out of 5G
2. Why is US hell bent on blocking Huawei out of the countries in its sphere of influence
3. Is withdrawal from winter Olympics by US and Canada a possibility? If yes does that leave China more isolated on the international stage
So the manpower of ANA proved nothing. It seems to be Taliban is fighting a war well designed and devised inside Pakistan possibly with the Chinese consultants because no rag tag army can take on a National army and maintain logistics and supplies so efficiently. Would not even be surprised Pakistani commandos are not fighting alongside the Taliban. I also think the Taliban is winning psychologically just like the US Army did in Iraq. The fighters of the ANA are not willing to fight for fear of the Talibs who may well have told them to exchange their weapons for life. There is no way Taliban would have conquered Afghanistan so easily were it not for the lack of planning and lack of fighting from the ANA. So at the end Pakistan and China win again because instead of a heated up Durand line, they now have all the time in the world to concentrate on India without any fear from Afghan retaliation! Bravo.
To REMO: Contrary to the popular perception of Afghanistan staring at the abyss, the Afghan National Defence Forces (ANDF) are steadily increasing their re-deployments despite their logistical deficiencies. What the ANDF now needs are utility & attack helicopters like Mi-17s & Mi-25/Mi-35Ps for effectively responding to the Taliban’s guerrilla warfare hit-n-run tactics. And that is what the ANDF is asking from India. Iran can’t offer much by way of hardware. Only Russia & Belarus can.
Given today's events this proved to be nothing more than a wishful thinking sadly Prasun Babu.
Hello Sir.
Don't you think that this whole saga is because of the mismanagement by the Biden administration?What they should have done is maintain a decent enough strength of troops to deter any Taliban offensive for 6 more months and during this period,they should have evacuated all the people who worked for them(who will now be in danger)and this 6 month period would have also given enough time for all those who wanted to leave to leave.And after all the foreigners,embassy staff,helpers and those who wanted to leave left,they could have withdrawn the troops and this sort of withdrawal would have been far more orderly.What do you think?
HI prasun .
its distresing to note the the LCA encountered some flight control law problems and thanks to the pilot the fighter was landed safely. what could have happend ? the flight control system was well tested and proven and i am sure that it will give nightmares to pilots who fly them expecting some thing likethat to happen any time. Was the pilot a test pilot.?
THe same for the su -30mki which seems to have a perrenial FBW problem. Again was the pilot a test pilot who recobvered the fighter. Rarely some one recovers from a fBW problem . what is happening?
what is this bravado talk of the navy opting for a TEDBF rather than a proven rafale of f-18?
Looks like Afghanistan is gone the drain !!
To MILLARD KEYES, ARUN, KAPIL & TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: Matters are not as simple as they are being made out to be. It is more likely that this was pre-arranged transfer of power. The rapid fall of one-third of Afghanistan provincial capitals within one week belies the much-hyped claims of tenacity of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces as they fast crumbled in the face of advancing insurgent fighters. This brings to mind an old military adage: Those who governed well did not arm; those who were armed well did not draw battle lines; those who drew battle lines well did not fight; those who fought well did not lose; those who lost well did not perish.
Sir what the hell afghan force doing..
Surrendering in flock..
Their political leadership is utter nonsense ....
This is probably diminishing of american sole super power status..
And seems Indian leadership has had no clue of the ongoing matters..Where as the ground open and ripe for china to expand more .
Over all very sorry state of affairs..
Prasun Da, happy independence day.
It seems President Ashraf Ghani has fled Afghanistan. His Defence Minister is cursing Ashraf Ghani on twitter
https://twitter.com/Muham_madi1/status/1426904905055444993?s=20
Obviously you are far more knowledgable than I'm but it seems it is going to be extremely difficult for India from this point onwards because Afghanistan will become a de facto extension of Pakistan.
Thanks
Whenever i come to say that Afghanistan has fallen to Taliban it comes out as Taliban has fallen.
Makes me think is this some kind of CHAKRAVYUH laid out for Taliban.
Where Taliban is made to believe they are winning or have won the Afghanistan.
And all of a sudden out of nowhere KARMA turns the table up side down on them.
Maybe my wishful thinking.
But feels sad for Afghanistan whatever little freedom they had will be done and dusted by the Taliban.
what now prasun bhai? even if the corridor is created over balochistan with the americans (as the option u mentioned), things will again go back because of safe haven in pakiland. unless pakis are dealt with, it will be another pointless effort. what is stopping america to go after pak now?
this seems like the perfect opportunity to retake paki occupied territory in the north & establish land borders with afghanistan. i know u said previously we are not ready yet militarily. but if the decision is taken, what can be done to mitigate existing capability shortcomings?
islam will always triumph afghan nationalism since their idea of nationalism lies in islamic jihadist glory. unless there emerges an afghan nationalism centered on pre-islamic past, their armed services personnel will always give way because they can't out-islamize the taliban. egypt is trying to do that by going back to the pharaohs. afghan diaspora needs to do this now. they are fucked otherwise.
there should be an indian NGO effort to proselytize buddhism or hindutva among afghans. diaspora and online. a fundamental departure which will allow afghans to confidently stand opposed to taliban or anything of the sort. this has to be supported by the GoI. as long as afghanistan is a hellhole like it is, it will always be a security threat to India and the rest of the world. christian missionary organizations should be brought in to convert them to christianity as well. it should be a joint effort. plenty of muslims convert to cristianity quietly. i can state that for a fact from bangladesh.
To ASHWATTHAMA: 1) From where did you dig up that figure? 2) That is a mere supposition, because had that been the case, then why would the PA invest in fencing the Durand Line?
To SATYAKI: 1) In an age of land-mobile ICBMs is it rational for any country to invest in multiple sites that house static silos for ICBMs? Hence, those silos are not meant for ICBMs, but for something else. 2) Yes, India’s WMD inventory will also have to be increased. 3) Not at all.
To INDRAJIT: 1 & 2) Yes, it is. Do watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Emvl0tS24tg&t=56s 3) Yes.
To RAD: If there were flaws with the flight-control logic of both the Tejas Mk.1 & Su-30MKI, then the entire inventory of such aircraft would have experienced such in-flight emergencies. But that has not happened, meaning that there were isolated cases of the flight-control software being uploaded in a faulty manner.
To BUDDHA, SUJOY MAJUMDAR & PANIC: As I had stated earlier, it is still very much premature to lose all hope against Afghanistan. Because the fears of Pakistan has now increased manifold all along the Durand Line, given the Afghan Taliban’s sympathies for the TTP. Now to turn to the collapse in Kabul. It was due to psychological meltdown among the top civilian & military leadership of Afghanistan. And this happened due to lack of national unity & this is because Afghanistan is still a country divided by feudal & tribal factionalism, especially in the southern western & central parts of the country. The northern & northwestern portions of Afghanistan are much more cohesive from a societal standpoint & hence Balkh province & the Panjshir Valley are still holding out & will continue to do so. The Northern Alliance will therefore continue to remain a potent force. Also to be noted is that in Herat province & those areas where the Shia Hazaras live, the Afghan Taliban has not engaged in any violence, obviously to keep Iran happy. But in the days to come, one can fully expect the Afghan Taliban to make official requests to India for resuming all the developmental activities inside Afghanistan, mark my words. Had the situation been dire, then even the likes of Hamid Karzai would by now have been given asylum in India. But that has not happened, meaning a behind-the-scenes agreement has been worked out in typical Afghan fashion in Doha. The only unknown unknown is whether the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan will transition into the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan & if so, then how & in what timeframe.
Pakistan Expediting Border-Fencing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65W1khY1Kwc
Prasunda,
VMT. Static silos for ICBMs do make sense if the intention is to deploy a large number of ICBMs in a high state of readiness at all times with a launch on warning posture (China is building EW radars with Russia's help). After all, even the US Ground Based Strategic Deterrent, if it is not scuttled, will replace the Minuteman III in 400 silos. A large fraction of Russia's land based firepower would also be carried by Sarmat heavy ICBMs (replacing the R-36M2) in 50 or so silos. So China's silos may well be meant for this sort of buildup. Hope India's WMD deployments also increase rapidly enough (with the ability to assure unacceptable destruction no matter what fraction of China's arsenal is employed for counterforce).
Satyaki
Satyaki
Prasunda
1) Has'nt Balkh also fallen with the fall of Mazar-e-Sharif to the Taliban ? Only Panjshir holds out, but for how long (with no line that can maintain supplies for the indefinite future)?
2) Given that professional military support would be required to plan such an effective campaign as the Taliban have had, is'nt it clear that GHQ Rawalpindi is behind all this to bring their proxies to power in Afghanistan (with far more stability for the Taliban than 1996-2001)?
3) It seems clear that the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan would indeed morph into the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
Ashwatthama
Prasunda
It seems that soldiering & war fighting by nation states like India, US, UK, even Paxtan sees serious fighting. However, even historically, states & organisations in from Suria to Afghanistan, even the CARs is more of a combination of negotiation, bribery, settlements & show of power with little fighting & skirmishes. That might be the reason why such long drawn out wars by Al Qaeda to ISIS & Taliban who do little fighting but rather use a combination of religious & tribal ties to gain objectives & that too in the manner of mafia or protectionist rentier authorities rather than Bonafide administrations. That should also explain their instability, corruption & unconventional temporary existences. Is this cultural, where it's not veing ciwardly but rather treating war as an extension of politics & conducted by negotiation or subterfuge & less by military manoeuvres. This is historically true of military campaigns the world over where long drawn conflicts involved more negotiation, bargains & bribery rather than actual fighting. Even the PLA & Rissians do so. OTOH, Indian military warfighting traditionally avoids such tactics though they seem effective & sustainable in their own way.
Could you explain Sir, in case I have made my query/observation clear, spl in context of the campaigns in Afghanistan & also recently in Iraq, Syria or even Ukraine.
Prasunda,
Sorry to comment that I am not agreeing with your latest comments on Afgan Taliban. Afganistan is not a very small country but how come they took it over so fast ! The only word which is coming into my mind is Blitzkrieg !
No rag tag army can do so fast mobilization ! It's Pakistan army regulars in disguise. May be few thousand Taliban is there. But mainly PA regulars. Actually Pakistan was planning it for long so there is All quiet on the Western Front. ( Our Western Front.). So that complete attention can be given to invade Afganistan.
Your opinion please.
Best regards,
Ragtag they might be, but one must realise these guys have been fighting non stop for over half a century. Most of the individuals must be fighting for most of their lives, these guys are propably the most battle hardened people on earth. Isn't surprising at all.
To ASHWATTHAMA: 1) Not true. Here’s proof: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAnVaYMyh1c
2) This explains it all: https://theprint.in/world/our-advice-to-taliban-is-avoid-urban-warfare-afghan-ex-pm-hekmatyar-blames-ghani-for-crisis/715960/
The Taliban began planning/working since 2014 & achieved its target by 2021. It was by no means any Blitzkrieg.
To KAUSTAV: My simple assessment is that those countries who try to display their religiosity by attaching tags like ‘Islamic’ to their names have historically ended up in this manner & are in a perpetual state of instability, perhaps due to the wrath of the Gods of Yore. This started with the Turkish Caliphate, followed by Iraq after it attached the tag ‘Islamic’ after the Iran-Iraq war, followed by the Islamic Republic of Iran & Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Nepal narrowly missed a similar fate by deciding not to use the term ‘Hindu’ to describe itself in its name.
To PARTHASARATHI: These explain it all:
https://theprint.in/world/our-advice-to-taliban-is-avoid-urban-warfare-afghan-ex-pm-hekmatyar-blames-ghani-for-crisis/715960/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAnVaYMyh1c
Dada,
1. Thanks for sharing the interview of Hekmatyar. He sounded like a powermonger and trying to fish in muddy water, prolly very keen to project himself as next Afghan leader who is acceptable to both Afghan populace and outside world. Kindly let us know your insights.
2. You always maintained Taliban would never be able to conquest Afghanistan and Afghan armed force would re-capture all lost territory from Talibans. I am bit puzzled to gauge what went wrong that in a span of 10 days Afghan political and military leaders and armed forces gave in to Talibans? Can you shed some lights?
Hi Prasun ji, been a while since I posted here, though been following the blog quite regularly.
I must ask, where do you see things going from here? It's more than likely that Pakhtunkwha could heat up, as would J&K eventually.
1) What could the future of US-Pak relations look like? Judging by the formation of the 'Quad' of US, Pakistan, Afghanistan & Uzbekistan it seems the US may have weighed some options and deemed that they must rely on Pak to deliver a way for US to retain some control on what happens in Afghanistan.
But on the other hand, US no longer needs Pak as a logistics gateway for forces in Afg, and their control over taliban groups would prove less useful now that no US forces are engaged there. This could make Pak lose some of the leverage they had.
2) So is this going to end up with a FATF blacklisting of Pak, denial of SWiFT, and some broader sanctions against the Pak military?
3) As Afg slowly becomes more like it was pre-2001, do you see any potential for using it as a means of reviving ETIM for a likely jihad in East Turkestan aka Xinjiang? Last year the US removed the ETIM group from their Foreign Terrorist Organizations list...could this be laying the groundwork for a sub-conventional means of destabilizing western China?
As always, thank you in advance!
To ROGUE: All the Taliban combatants that you are seeing on TV are all youngsters & very few middle-aged combatants have been visible. The reasons for the Taliban’s sudden appearance in various provinces & districts are altogether different, which are explained below.
To AD & GESSLER: 1 & 2) It has not been a military victory for the Taliban at all, since there has not been any widespread bloodshed for the past 1 month. Instead, the Taliban had embarked upon a strategy of befriending its foes through local jirgas of tribal elders—this being an age-old tribal tactic for organising parleys aimed at dispute resolution. In doing so, the Taliban was aided by 3 critical factors:
1) The two Afghan Presidents since 2002 (Hamid Karzai & Ashraf Ghani) were not fully empowered to deliver good governance, thanks to the overwhelming NATO military presence. Consequently, between 2002 & now, some 335,000 Afghans have been killed due to the insurgency, and NATO air-strikes & fire-assaults. This in turn severely alienated the local populace in central, western & southern Afghanistan.
2) The US spent about $114 billion in creating the Afghan National Defence & Security Forces (ANDSF) that were specific to the provinces & therefore there was never any pan-Afghan approach to the creation of the ANDSF. Consequently, the province-specific Afghan special operations forces (SOF) were trained for supporting only the NATO operations. The only exceptions were the military units dedicated for the northern areas like Panjshir Valley & Balkh & that’s why these 2 provinces have not fallen & neither have the Taliban made any serious effort to capture such areas by military means.
3) Matters moved quickly after the US decided to abruptly remove all the private contractors that were providing technical support to the ANDSF. As a result, transportation by both land & air became impossible for the ANDSF, thereby causing logistical paralysis. Former President Ashraf Ghani too realised this & it goes to his credit that he smelt futility & decided against causing any further bloodshed within & around Kabul.
So, where does one go from here? This is best explained by the following 2 objective assessments aired last night by a Pakistani TV channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5C8x95OWew
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cafiZxGRExc
And this too is a credible assessment by an Indian TV channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3H0Vnv5kJ8&t=22s
European View of What Went Wrong:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIlE_36_XJQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4o-arfKHKs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=23O5jK2uPkU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOdn79s8lpo
Most commentaries & discussions in the bulk of the Indian TV channels have WRONGLY focussed on only the Pakistani angle & this won’t get India anywhere. On the other hand, Russia, Iran & China have not made any emergency evacuations from Kabul—this being indicative of their superior mature diplomacy & credible projection of military power. India on the other hand has displayed unnecessary panic & alarm. In my view, extracting a pledge from the Taliban to protect Indian property & human resources based In Afghanistan would have been a far better option, for this would have given the Taliban a good chance to demonstrate their goodwill toward India & hopefully extract something in kind from India in future, such as allowing India to make further economic investments in Afghanistan in future. Instead, what we are seeing are lame excuses being forwarded by several former IA officers & former diplomats, like “India has been overtaken by events.”
Cont'd below...
Nor do I foresee Afghanistan returning to the pre-2001 era. The present-day Taliban leadership is not shackled by the religiosity-based mindset of Mullah Omar, nor will any of Afghanistan’s neighbours tolerate such primitive mindsets. Consequently, the survival of any future regime of Afghanistan depends on the extent of pragmatism to be displayed. Hence, it all now depends on how Afghanistan, in typical tribal parleys fashion, crafts out a Govt of National Unity & how this could mesh with the Taliban’s concept of an Islamic Emirate. Hence, there is no hurry on India’s part to make any hurried decisions & instead one just to adopt a wait-n-watch approach for the next 3 weeks, which is what everyone else will do as well. Because at the end of the day, the Panjshiris, Hazara Shias & Uzbeks remain India’s time-tested allies along with Iran & Russia & all of them agree that regional geoeconomics is the way forward.
Lastly, beware of all falsehoods being spread by the bulk of the ‘desi patrakaars’. One of them was exposed here:
https://twitter.com/ajalali
Hi Prasun,
Would not the presence of LeT and other pakistan terrorists in Afghanistan be the main consideration for India to pull out our resources from Afghanistan? Since these terrorists seem to be embedded there, there is a possibility of Indian personnel being attacked at least till the security situation stabilizes there.
Even granting that Talibs have full control, it would be difficult even for the Taliban central leadership to control local events in the provinces and even in Kabul.
Regards,
Raghu
Prasunda
Indeed, India has been practical about it, inspite of the evident hostility with which Taliban views India. It has been talking with them at Doha for some time now, has been able to continue/resume evacuation of stranded Indians while the embassy continues to operate. Inspite of the fact of the IA hijacking & Taliban complicity therein (which BTW, ended up there because of the Indian security agencies ineptitude & inspite of the IA pilot's commonsensical tactics to hold them in India), India has been able to get it's requirements met while practically adopting a Wait & Watch attitude. Also, the Taliban have yet to form a Government in Afghanistan be it an Islamic Republic or Emirate Administration. Till then the Taliban remains a Terrorist Organisation controlling territory & people of Afghanistan. Wait & Watch is ideal for now.
boss, taliban's neighbor's are pakistan and iran. both have primitive mindsets.
neo-islamism is no antidote to primitive islamism.
they will hide and bide and wait for just a few more years for US to keep losing relative strength. so will pakistan.
no way out besides dismantling pakistan.
islamism will bind them with pakistanis. madrassas will proliferate even more than they already have in afghanistan. they will forget durand line and start dreaming about unfulfilled prophesies in their fairytale book about bharat. hasina will die and jamaat will start the long game here in bangladesh. and young taliban will dream of becoming shahrukhs and salmans and the day they will together be able to break into india and get at all the beautiful women.
crude bhai, but that's the mindset. it's the mindset in pakistan. and it will be the mindset in afghanistan. i hear urduwood is going to release "pathan!" the film soon. how apt indeed.
Dada ,
Please let me know my assessment is correct or not !!
All the equipment which is captured would be un serviceable in a short time and Basic necessities of the Afghan would
be need to be provided by international alliance either through Chabhar or through Pakistan border (durand line). Now who would take the responsibility would depend on the general administration experience left in Afghan now , so Taliban would start talking in terms of maintainance / upkeep and running and lubrication of the Afghanistan , who can help ? that would be the question which Indian MEA should think and be proactive and if Taliban's leader ship and existing Gov people have though of way then they may be india should be playing a role.
Now that the blood shed is relatively less likely and I think Pakistan would be worried with Tehrik-E-Pak people out and missing from Afghanistan Central and Southern Pakistan would start seeing some troubles , But will this spill on to Kashmir Border ? incase yes how will it be addressed by India / should be addressed ?
Prasun da,Hamid Mir explained :
https://youtu.be/E8EwXFdQp4w
Prasunda
Meanwhile, India is the only responsible actor right now. India is offering emergency, free visas to Afghans
Here's the details:
India has introduced a new category of fast-tracked electronic visa called "e-Emergency X-Misc Visa" https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-launches-new-category-of-online-visa-for-afghanistan-how-to-apply-helpline-number-here/amp-11629186718463.html?
Ofcourse the dumbasses at NYT forget the CAA was for citizenship & isnt even relevant here. Meanwhile these dumbos never tell the truth. Assholes https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/world/asia/india-afghanistan-visas.html
The world, won't remember India's generosity, ofcourse. But that's India being India while Turkey has closed its border to Afghan Muslims. Unfortunately, even the West views Afghans as a threat and not embracing these victims of a regime they helped install.
Prasun da, what is your opinion on this very terrifying twitter thread? US has fucked up big time. https://twitter.com/BryanDeanWright/status/1427665790124363785?s=08
To RAGHU: The LeT & JeM combatants are concentrated in the Kandahar area to the south & in areas in eastern Afghanistan & are not allowed to venture into Kabul or elsewhere. And in response to those who have been apprehensive about the after-shocks being felt in J & K or Ladakh, there is nothing to worry about because back in the early 1990s there was no LoC fencing & the Rashtriya Rifles was still being raised. Today, the situation is totally different & the counter-infiltration grid is more than 90% effective.
To BHOUTIK: Arey Bhaya, for how much longer will we continue to paint ourselves as helpless vishwagurus & point fingers at others for dwelling in the Neolithic age? Was it Pakistan or Iran that prevented India from regaining her lost territories of PoJK in 1948, 1965, 1971 & 1999? When back in 1999 the perfect opportunity was provided to India under international law to take the offensive back inside PoJK, Indian strategic thought displayed remarkable primitiveness & prevented India from achieving geographic contiguity with Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor. Had India’s IB been shared with the Wakhan Corridor, then:
1) India could have directly provided material & training assistance to the Northern Alliance all the way up to the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan IB.
2) India could have built a chain of air bases, heliports, forward air bases for aerial logistics sustainment within Badakhshan & Balkh provinces. The IAF could have established there at least one squadron each of MiG-23BN tactical interdictors & one MiG-21bis L-MRCAs.
3) Such infrastructure would have been made available by India to the US for ISR missions in the pre-9/11 era & post-9/11 era. 4) The US then would never have been beholden to Pakistan for securing access by air & land into landlocked Afghanistan.
To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: The Afghan Taliban of today is tech-savvy & consequently is much more in love with life’s material pleasures. Consequently, in order ro enjoy such pleasures, it will require financial sustainability. And since no one, especially Pakistan can afford to successively keep bailing out Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban now has no other choice but to earn revenues through trade & commerce. And to do this, trade & commerce linkages will need to be established with as many countries as possible. And so a carrot-n-stick policy will need to be adopted by the international community under which any future govt of national unity in Afghanistan will be rewarded for adhering to international conventions & norms, or be punished for violating such norms & conventions. That also explains why the Taliban’s Doha-based spokespersons have been very obliging in giving TV interviews to primetime English-language TV channels & stressing on the need for Afghanistan to enter the era of ‘reconstruction’, i.e. it definitely wants India to continue her developmental activities like before inside Afghanistan. The coming days will thus see a refinement of such an approach & will see India too reciprocating such gestures & soundbytes. Hence, there’s no need for any whining or wailing by anyone in India about the future of Afghanistan-India ties, kindly rest assured.
To KAUSTAV: Investments in human-resource developments always pay off, as it did in India’s case as well, when, since the 1960s under the USAID programme, lakhs of young US citizens have been coming to India to work for several voluntary welfare schemes for a period of up to 3 years at a time. Similarly, it is the Afghan populace’s goodwill for India since 1947 that continues to pay dividends & this trend will continue. India’s generosity & goodwill will bear fruits in places like the UNSC, where both Russia & China seem to be on the defensive since neither of them has the financial prowess reqd for bailing out Afghanistan. In the end, it will be the West & the GCC member-states along with India & Iran that will have to devise the financial mechanisms reqd for Afghanistan’s sustainable development. And if, as expected, both China & Pakistan display shortsightedness, then the coast will be clear for India to apply both moderate financial power & overwhelming military force for the sake of conquering PoJK & establishing geographical contiguity with the Wakhan Corridor & through that with the Central Asian Republics, expectedly by 2023.
Prasunda,
Is India conquering PoJK possible when China is holding up a large fraction of our forces at the LAC, leaving forces on the western front that only have parity against Pak ?
Satyaki
Surprised you say that China does not have the financial powers to support Taliban !!
Also has US lost its will to be a global super power because their politicians only want to be politically correct to their domestic audience?
To SATYAKI: Absolutely possible & doable. China's bluff has already been caught as it has been proven that the PLAGF has serious human resource deficiencies when it comes to high-altitude plateau warfare. The PA will from now on have to devote far more resources along the Durand Line & will thereby suffer loss of parity with India.
To HARI: I never said anything about supporting the Taliban by anyone. There is a clear distinction between financially propping up an entire country & propping up a nationalist movement. You are also ignoring that of the trillions of US$ that the US had spent in Afghanistan over the past 20 years, 90% of it was re-invested back in the US economy through outsourcing contracts to private contractors & awarding US companies lucrative weapons procurement contracts. That's how global superpowers operate, FYI. All in all, it was a highly profitable venture for the US, but with diminishing returns over the past 3 years.
Excellent assessment by 3 former Indian diplomats on what went wrong in Afghanistan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Syaznv8hguY
Do you think Indian govt should recognise this Taliban govt before everyone to take advantage of being the first mover and build connections with the Taliban to secure Indian interests (both economic and strategic) in Kabul? this can throw the Pakistanis in confusion and might have to rethink their strategy. In place of economic assistance and continuation of previous efforts, we can ensure pressure on both china+pak. We are inveested too much in Afg to just back out and run, we should have an independent strategy from what the west is following.
What are your views on this?
While Taliban wants to continue with Indias development work, it needs to be seen how that will be possible under the following two circumstances:
1. Taliban is a UN designated terrorist group. I guess was so in 1999, subject to correction. Taliban is also designated a terrorist group by the united states
2. Taliban not recognised as a legitimate government of Afghanistan by India or the Weatern countries yet
3. Reports coming of Afghanistan shooting on protestors and killing an afghan women for not wearing burqua
Regards
Kunal
Please Mr. Prasun don't expect us to even capture one inch of land in POJK anytime soon as you have said that only after IBGisation is completed we could have the ability to attack POJK and that process will take 15-20 years for the whole army.
But I can expect some gimmicks wrt to POJK in 2023-24 just like the balakot strikes to give Modiji another term.
No terrorists were killed in Balakot similarly again not much harm will be done to anyone.
Only Indian security personnel can be expected to be blown away to pieces unfortunately.
The dumbsters in IAF can be expected to again deploy the best Fighter in IAF the Mig-21 for the defence of J&K like on 27 February 2019 and Rafales can be expected to perform flypast over Delhi only.
Harish
Prasunda,
I am totally disagreeing with Mr. Amit
We should not recognise Taliban at all. It's better to prepare for a war. Mr Swami rightly said that there will be a war after one year. Mr Amit should know Taliban is nothing but a subsidiary of ISI. There is no use of talking to them. In accounting there is a term ' Sunk Cost '. India should know that the investment in Afganistan is now sunk. Better invest that money on military hardware like armed Drones or converting the old fighters as AI operated suicide Drone.
It's better to prepare for war than pouring money in a blackhole.
Best regards
Dear Prasun,
How can you so confidently tell the timeline to be 2023? Is it to instill fear in Pakistan army? Earlier your speculation about several timeline has not met the forecasting. Please open up more about it.
Mr. Prasun
https://youtu.be/vHLKFSWzImk
History repeating itself.
1) Is IN interested in Mig-35 Naval?
2) What's the news on DRDO EMALS? When will it come online as per schedule?
3) Is DRDO working on steam catapults as well?
4) Swathi WLR is useful, but why IA has not attached UAVs to these formations to hunt artillery positions as well?
5) PLS comment on recently commissioned Dosan Ahn Changho. Why do they need SLBM if they don't have nukes? Is there a problem with torpedo tube-launched cruise missiles?
6) Any news on Paki Qing class?
To AMIT DNZ: Let’s get some things clear: there is no govt in existence in Afghanistan today. And that’s why negotiations are now UNDERWAY to form an all-inclusive govt of national unity there. Hence, while China & Russia have welcomed the Taliban’s entry into Kabul, none of them have accorded any recognition to any govt. Pakistan’s fears have increased after the Taliban began releasing all TTP prisoners from various Afghan jails in eastern Afghanistan.
To UNKNOWN/KUNAL: 1) The Taliban was NEVER designated as a terrorist entity by anybody. Only a sanctions regime had existed against the Taliban & here are the details of it:
https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/sanctions-snapshot-taliban.pdf
2) No govt exists as yet in Afghanistan. And that’s why negotiations are now UNDERWAY to form an all-inclusive govt of national unity there. Only time will tell what shape & form such a govt takes & that will shape the international community’s response. 3) Such incidents were reported from both Kandahar & Jalalabad.
To HARISH: If the situation gets out of control in Afghanistan, i.e. if a govt of national unity does not emerge within the next 90 days, then Pakistan’s security challenges along the Durand Line will increase manifold. And the longer such a situation prevails, the greater the PA will be forced to allocate resources along the Durand Line. It can therefore well be that instead of India doing anything serious across the LoC in a pro-active manner, matters could degenerate inside PoJK to such an extent that an Indian military walkover into PoJK becomes both likely & possible without much effort.
To PARTHASARATHI: LoLz! There’s no need to jump to any conclusions as of now simply because no govt exists as yet in Afghanistan. And that’s why negotiations are now UNDERWAY to form an all-inclusive govt of national unity there. Only time will tell what shape & form such a govt takes & that will shape the international community’s response. Most importantly, Afghanistan will no longer receive the annual US$8 billion financial support from the US & this in turn will force any future govt of Afghanistan to fend for itself for survival. Consequently, there exists more than enough international pressure to ensure that Afghanistan does not end up at the wrong end of the stick, i.e. becoming a stooge of either China or Pakistan. Already, the US federal Reserve Bank of NY has stopped the money-flow into Kabul, as confirmed by the Governor of Afghanistan's Central Bank. Perhaps that's why the US & British Army have been allowed back into Kabul.
Assessment on Afghan situation by PA Maj Amir, who was with ISI's Counter-Intelligence Branch in early 1990s when Rana Banerjee was R & AW Station Chief at IHC Islamabad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqpqaBofxGg
To ASD: I never gave any timeline as a prophecy. Instead, it was a probability based on mathematical calculations. Forecasts change along with changing times & situations & consequently all that can do is engage in contingency planning. If you are looking for assured prophecies, then I’m not the one to deliver them, rest assured.
To KARTHIK BARMAN: 1) No. 2) Are you kidding? 3) No. If no Indian OEM can deliver either glass transparencies or electro-hydraulic elevators for IAC-1, then rest assured that ‘desi’ steam catapults are decades away from realisation. 4) UAVs are with the recce & scout battalions of the IA & have been so for the past 20 years. 5) Those are SS-BSMs, not SLBMs. 6) Nothing noteworthy.
Prasunda,
1) Do the increasing interactions between Russia and Pakistan suggest that
Russia is moving closer to the China-Pak-Turkey axis due to a shared antipathy to the US ?
2) If this process reaches a logical conclusion, what happens to Russia's support to India's strategic interests, such as development of nuclear submarines, SLBMs etc ?
3) Would Russia ever end up backing Pakistan in these areas the way it has backed India so far ?
Ashwatthama
Hello Sir.
This is an article written by Representative Mark Green(a member of America's Defence and Foreign Affairs Committees).In this article,he is arguing in favour of placing a quick reaction force in North West India to put pressure on Pakistan in order to prevent them from supporting the Taliban. This is the article link https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/568198-a-quick-reaction-force-in-india-could-prevent-the-worst-of
I am putting soma parts of the article below
The power vacuum in Afghanistan created by the Biden administration’s rushed and ill-planned withdrawal could have dangerous national security implications for years to come — unless we act now to mitigate the worst of this fallout. One way to do this is to station a quick reaction force in a country nearby that can respond to rising threats in Afghanistan. As I wrote previously, it is time for the United States and India to develop a stronger defense partnership and this is one way to do that.
Taliban rule in Afghanistan will be brutal — there is no question about it. There is no changing a regime that at its core is fundamentally evil. The human rights violations we are likely to see, especially against women and girls, will be a horrible consequence of the Biden administration’s actions. The worst of these atrocities might be avoided if we have a nearby base with a quick reaction force to put pressure on the Taliban.
This might also address other concerns like an intelligence blackout as well as the potential of outsized Chinese and Pakistani influence in the region. We can’t afford a complete intelligence blackout in Afghanistan. We know that the Taliban has maintained their relationship with al-Qaeda and cannot be trusted to keep Afghanistan from again becoming a haven for terrorist networks. We must find ways to keep our ear to the ground in Afghanistan and our eye on what’s happening in the region.
Having a base nearby is essential if the U.S. intends to effectively conduct intelligence missions as well as stage counterterrorism strikes. Over the horizon counterterrorism strategy requires a nearby base or we will be forced to use the same kind of long-range strikes we did back in October 2001 when B-52 bombers had to fly back and forth from the Indian Ocean to land-locked Afghanistan for over 420 hours straight. The longer it takes to travel to a target, the riskier the mission becomes. Instead, operating from a nearby country like India, the U.S. could use ground sensors for surveillance and long-range stealth drones, greatly decreasing the risk to U.S. assets and personnel.
Concerns over Afghanistan are only heightened by the role we know Pakistan and China intend to play. Pakistan has had a close though complicated relationship with the Afghan Taliban for years. In fact, it was because of Pakistan’s support that the Taliban were able to seize power in Afghanistan in 1994. There is clear evidence that Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence has continued to covertly support the Taliban since Sept. 11. One former Pakistani senator recently accused his nation’s generals of fully supporting the Taliban and many in Pakistan are even publicly cheering for the Taliban.
We also know that Pakistan has been acting as a middleman between China and the Taliban and that both countries will likely recognize the Taliban as a legitimate government. If China and Pakistan fill the United States’ shoes as power broker in Afghanistan, we can be sure that unlike the U.S., they won’t worry about human rights or protecting religious minorities.
Putting troops in Northwest India or threatening to do so may put just enough pressure on Pakistan for them to stop supporting the Taliban. This may not deter China from bringing its Belt and Road Initiative to Afghanistan, but it will let both China and Pakistan know that they will be held accountable for their actions in Afghanistan.
Your thoughts sir?
Dear Prasun,
Thanks for the rebuttal. It is imperative to know the rational behind your calculation. People like me are ignorant and come here to know the things. Apart from that, I would like to know whether USA will do the same with Taiwan? What's about QUAD? How much USA is committed towards QUAD? Isn't it a diplomatic failure of Biden's government in Afghanistan? Biden shouldn't have withdrawn blindly without calculating the risk. Now it is being criticized all over the world. All the 20 years are in vain. Please share your view.
It is important for you to understand the premises behind such calculations and then apply them emperically to indian context
.you will realise the premise behind such calculations is relevant for western countries who take such calculations very seriously in their decision making in india..alas thats not the case with india that as a nation lacks confidence to change things decisively..forget pojk or afghanisatan, even internal disturbances the country lacks the will to handle
Regards
Kunal
Prasun da
The Americans can do something like this again but not anytime soon maybe not for the next 20-25 years.
Also how much aggressive China is will also shape any American decision to Intervene for a long time in any part of the world.
Afterall they are a war profiteer economy as you have said
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/07/29/we-will-do-this-again-afghanistan-ig-warns-of-future-drawn-out-wars/
Thanks
Praksh
1)If there is substantial number of tactical UAVs in recce and scout battalions, then where is the photo ops of such events, like you see with the US, UK, or China? Wiki says Nishant was retired. IA ordering hundreds more of artillery so the IA's drone numbers should increase too.
This is all I can find: https://www.dimse.info/spylite-mini/ along with Searcher and
https://www.livefistdefence.com/indian-army-hands-landmark-20-million-deal-to-indian-drone-pioneer-ideaforge/
2)Why does RoKN need sub-launched SS-BSMs? Anyways we must give kudos to them while we are still flailing with indigenous subs. We were in the same place when we got the Type-209 but have failed to keep up with them since. Shameful that P-75I has their OEMs.
3)When IN is focusing on indigenous SSNs, why is funding wasted on P-75I?
4)Does sub-launched Exocet have land attack variant?
5)Russia offered Project 636.3 with LACM. Why is IN not keen on this as a stopgap, especially given the funding crunch and the much lower price tag compared to P-75I or P-75?
6)Can 20 minesweepers requirement be filled by Alexandrit minesweepers?
Hi Prasun,
Scorpene is the most commonsensical option for P75I, Selecting any other sub would make the investment made in building the industrial infrastructure and training the manpower go to waste isn't it? then why this charade of RFP?
Best Regards
Raj
Prasun Da,
It is possible that india financially assist the rise of northern alliance & simultaneously capture POJK and finally the Northern Alliance dominated provinces join with India?
Mr. Prasun
https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/568198-a-quick-reaction-force-in-india-could-prevent-the-worst-of?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Some might think that's good news but must see this.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/07/09/india_should_remove_the_roadblock_to_a_strong_defense_partnership_with_the_us_784788.html
I hope we don't bow down infront of the Americans on the issue of S-400 if we do it would be a national shame and who the hell told this guy that China and Iran are common adversaries of India and U.S it's only China not Iran.
Thanks
To ASHWATTHAMA: 1) Not at all. It is purely a mercantile & opportunistic alliance of temporary convenience. Russia has not yet reached a stage where it can supply weapons on friendship prices. Hence, it will always continue to insist on cash-on-delivery terms & conditions, which Pakistan cannot afford. 2) Since a sanctioned Russia desperately needs foreign exchange for keeping its economy afloat, it will continue to remain dependent on India for earning valuable foreign exchange revenues & will not offend India in any manner. 3) Never, because money does all the talking.
To ARUN: It makes sense, BUT ONLY IF the US supports India in re-uniting Gilgit-Baltistan with Ladakh UT. That is the only way by which geographic contiguity with Afghanistan can be established & reliance on Pakistan for geographic access to Pakistan be totally eliminated.
To ASD: No, the US alone can’t be blamed. For, had India not missed the opportunity to liberate Gilgit-Baltistan back in 1999, today the situation would have been entirely different & all the pressure over the past 20 years would have piled up along the Durand Line. So, now if the US wants to regain its prestige as the pre-dominant global superpower, then it has to ensure that India’s aims & objectives WRT Gilgit-Baltistan ought to be realised sooner rather than later. This will also enable India to extend her security guarantees to the Central Asian Republics who culturally are more predisposed to India than to either Russia or China. And Russia will be quite happy with such an arrangement since Russia will stand to gain economically through its Eurasian Customs Union that will then include India, Afghanistan & all the CARs.
To PRAKSH: Everything now depends on the creation of an enabling environment, as I have outlined just above.
To KARTHIK BARMAN: 1) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkuMBmG8DIA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2U4Q5si9xQ
2) For striking North Korean coastal SS-BSM launch-sites on extremely short notice. 3) Don’t worry, that project will never take off. 4) No. 5) All of the IN’s upgraded Type-877EKM SSKs can fire the Novator 3M-14E Klub LACM. In fact, India, not Russia, was the launch customer of this LACM back in the year 2000 when she procured two additional Type-877EKM SSKs. 6) Yes.
To RAJ: Because if this charade is not enacted, then plenty of ‘desi’ netas will cry foul & allege that corruption had taken place in sticking to a sole-source OEM, i.e. Naval Group of France.
To SUVO: Yes, it is indeed possible, as I have explained just above to ASD/Soubhagya.
To RAJ GUPTA: The S-400 LR-SAM procurement from Russia has now been relegated to the sidelines due to the more urgent reqmts on hand, i.e. saving Afghanistan from an open Pakistan invasion via its born-in-Pakistan Talibans; followed by keeping China bottled up in the South China Sea. For the US this is a two-front warfighting scenario for which it needs India like never before. I can only hope that India’s ‘netas’ are now compelled to apply the correct stratagems for realising & safeguarding India’s supreme national interests.
Fall of Kabul Decoded: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zofseZ3hdoU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zhc1bhTF8jY
UK Evacuation Flights Out of Kabul: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8YLoYqgX2c
Afghanistan, a Land of Endless Wars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7e6tejlTNw
Happy Onam! @Prasun
As with US involvement anywhere, they are bad restoring order/peace. Two reasons for Afganistan mess. Middle level unprefessionalism in forces and corruption at contractoring levels.
Thanks,
S Nair
Prasunda,
I have few queries. JF 17 is using RD 93 and our MIG 29 K is still using older version of the same engine. But why JF 17's safety standards are much higher than MIG 29K ? Though MIG 29 K is a twin engine fighter ?
Pakistan is renewing it's JF 17 fleet with modified RD 93 MA with 93 KN wet power rating. Can't we re-engine our MIG 29 fleet with that engine ?
Can we re-engine our MIG fleet with GE 414 if GE agreed to modify their engine for MIG ?
Best regards
1)I believe you are right wrt S-400. They should be delivered by year end. The Americans are engaging in gimmicks by saying that when India will receive S-400 then the question will come on sanctions or not. It looks like they want something to get in return I don't know what it will be?
2)I don't think the U.S would even covertly agree to India's aims and objectives wrt to Gilgit and Baltistan because that mean provoking Chinese and Pakistanis both?
3)Even sanctions or any other strong measures to Punish Pakistan won't be taken taken because the U.S knows Pakistan could covertly do much damage to U.S. Also the Pakistanis helped in agreements with Taliban and provide the air-corridor.
FATF Grey list is a farce.
4)And even if a opportunity arises to further India's national interests the dhoti-clad netas are dumb. Also China's DANDA has put them in their place and it will years for them to get out of it?
Thanks for replies
Raj Gupta
Some reporting showing huge amount of hard dollar cash and immense us built small arms ammunition personal carrier vehicle and others sort of things are in taliban hand. This scenario will enrich taliban and its supporting terrorist groups as they can arm as many numbers as they want with all modern equipments..
And this will certainly be headache security situation .
What's your take.
There is obviously US intelligent failure of the rapid take over of taliban and subsequent disastrous situation.
If 2K23 be Indian govt opportunity to take Kashmir back ..But as you said Indian military lacked that sort of heavy lift heli capacity and over whelming air power vis a vis paKistan and china will surely out huge pressure on border..Your thought..
https://twitter.com/chasing_highs/status/1428982726183378944?s=20
What's ur take on this??
Dada,
Few months back I came across news report on DRDO success in Jet Engine Technology. DRDO released a Press Note like "Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has established the near isothermal forging technology to produce all the five stages of high-pressure compressors (HPC) discs out of difficult-to-deform titanium alloy using its unique 2000 MT isothermal forge press".
1. Can you kindly share your thoughts on the impact of this discovery pertinent to aero-engine design, development & manufacturing by DRDO?
2. Which components do remain elusive till date for DRDO to design, develop & manufacture aero-engine indigenously?
Good evening sir.
Just an observation.There are so many conflict zones in the world.It feels a lot like we're living in the 1930s these days.I feel that the world is headed towards another World War within the next few years(maybe end of this decade or early part of next decade) and that countries are choosing which camps they want to be in.After the fall of Afghanistan,there is an arc comprising Islamist and anti American countries stretching from Turkey(under Islamist Erdogan) to North Korea.Not inconceivable that these countries would be the Axis countries and US,India,Japan,South Korea,Australia,Israel,Greece(against Turkey)Taiwan,etc would be the Allied Countries.Islamists and Communists vs Democracies.What do you think?
Regards,
Arun.
Prasun da, pls come with a new thread dealing with the whole situation in Afghanistan, it's geopolitical implications and the future of this region.
To PARTHASARATHI: Actually, it is the other way around & needs a chronological explanation. Frst there was the RD-33 with a TBO of 350 hours & a TTSL of 700 hours. This was followed by the RD-93/SMR-95 variants each with 700 hours TBO & 1,400-hour TTSL. The RD-93 was for the Malaysian MiG-29Ns while the SMR-95 as for the South African Mirage F-1 and Mirage-3 Cheetah (with gearbox mounted beneath the engine). The RD-93 was then modified to have a gearbox mounted beneath the engine so that it could go on the JF-17. You need to note here that all Russian turbofans traditionally have the gearbox mounted above the engine while their Western counterparts always have the gearbox mounted beneath. Ans the RD-33, RD-03 & SMR-95 all did not & do not have FADEC controls. It was only the RD-33-3 & RD-33MK variants (with 2,000-hour TBO & 4,000-hour TTSL) for the MiG-29UPG & MiG-29K that incorporate the BARK FADEC. Only now is the latest RD-93MA variant incorporating the BARK-93MA
FADEC.
No Russia-origin combat aircraft can accommodate the Western-origin turbofans due to the gearbox location issue as I have explained above. But Western-origin combat aircraft can accept Russia-origin turbofans ONLY IF Russia agrees to relocate the gearbox from the top to beneath the engine.
https://www.uecrus.com/eng/products/military_aviation/rd93/
And here are some interesting papers published from Poland that explain the problems encountered with RD-33 turbofans:
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1944/14/2/336/htm
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329900111_Damages_of_RD-33_Engine_Gas_Turbine_and_their_Causes
https://sciendo.com/downloadpdf/journals/jok/49/3/article-p547.pdf
To AMIT BISWAS: LoLz! As usual, the typical Indian choosing to blame the foreigner! It was Nicholas Burns that helped India clinch the 123 Nuclear Agreement back in 2005.
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