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Sunday, January 8, 2012

Alliance Of Convenience

A little-known fact that has gone largely unnoticed since the early 1990s has been the vital role played by Pakistan in the substantial expansion of Beijing-Ankara military-industrial collaboration over the last 17 years. Since 1985, Turkey has sent 18 military delegations comprising some 200 members while 14 Chinese military missions with about 330 representatives have visited Turkey at the same time. Sino-Turkish military-industrial cooperation began in the first half of the 1990s after Ankara’s negotiations with Washington for the joint production and technology transfer of the M-270 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) failed. The US had then criticised Turkey for using US-supplied weapons for human rights abuses (against the Kurds), subsequently restricting weapons sales and military technology transfers to Turkey, and cutting off grants and loans earlier offered to Turkey for US-origin weapons. It was Pakistan which then informed Turkey that China was ready to fill the void, provided Turkey was willing to cooperate with China in the so-called fight against ‘Eastern Turkestan (Xinjiang)-sponsored terrorism’, namely to restrict, monitor and prevent the activities of Uyghur national organisations and leaders, most of whom were and are still based in Turkey. Consequently, since 1997 the Third Bureau (military attachés) of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) General Staff Second Department (dealing with military intelligence) has been operating in Turkey as one of its most important, and presumably one of the most active, stations. Also in 1997, Turkey for the first time signed a contract with China for the procurement of 24 WS-1 302mm unguided rockets as well as 144 rockets for licenced-assembly in Turkey, to be supplied between 1998 and 2000. Turkey next began licence-producing the TR-300 rockets (or T-302, upgraded from the four-barrel WS-1B MLRS) under under the Turkish designation Kasırga (tornado).

In late 1998, based on a similar contract signed with the state-owned China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corp (CPMIEC), Ankara ordered some 15 of China’s most advanced short-range surface-to-surface battlefield support missiles (SSBSM)--the 150km-range B-611--and under Project J-600T, began license-producing an additional 200 more under a US$300 million deal. The first such missiles—known as Yıldırım (thunderbolt), were deployed as early as 2001. The solid-fuelled Yildirim-2 variant, featuring a 300km-range, was subsequently developed jointly by the defence industries research and development institute of the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK-SAGE), Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corp (MKEK), and the state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp (CASIC), while it was series-produced by Roket Sanayii ve Ticaret (Roketsan). Another product jointly developed by TUBITAK and CASIC (and produced by Roketsan) since 2004 is the 70mm (2.75-inch) ‘Cirit’ guided air-to-surface missile, which is derived from the Tianyan TY-90 (Heavenly Swallow) air-to-air missile. The ‘Cirit’ features a semi-active laser homing seeker, Goodrich Corp-built SiIMU-02 inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a 3kg armour-piercing warhead built with Class 5 insensitive munitions. The 14kg, 1.9 metre-long missile has a range of 8km with a high probability of hit on a 3 × 3 metre target at this range.
But perhaps the most noteworthy military-industrial collaboration undertaken thus far between Turkey, China and Pakistan is in the area of precision-guided munitions like air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM), and here again Pakistan has played a crucial role as facilitator. In the early 1990s, Pakistan’s Kamra-based Air Weapons Complex (AERO) sought Denel Aerospace of South Africa’s expertise for developing ALCMs for ground attack as well as a family of air combat missiles. In February 1996, soon after the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) concluded a $50 million deal with Italy’s Galileo Avionica for the supply of 30 Grifo-M3 airborne multi-mode pulse-Doppler radars for the upgraded Mirage IIIEAs, contractual negotiations began on a $160 million contract with Denel Aerospace’s Kentron subsidiary to cover the licenced-production by AERO of the latter’s U-Darter within-visual-range air-to-air missile (a reverse-engineered R550 Magic-2 missile developed by MBDA). Following this, AERO by April 1999 had commenced contractual negotiations with Denel Aerospace for co-development of an ALCM under a project codenamed H-4. Based on Kentron’s MUPSOW-1 design, which was unveilled in 1994, this ALCM was about 4.50 metres long, weighed about 850kg, had a 150km-range, housed an imaging infra-red (IIR) terminal seeker, sported twin dorsal air intakes and fixed horizontal and vertical tailfins, and had a rear-mounted turbojet engine, which was a reverse-engineered Turbomeca/Microturbo TRI 60-30 turbojet producing 5.4kN thrust and featuring a 4-stage-axial compressor. The AERO-built MUPSOW-1 comes armed with high-explosive runway-cratering bomblets. The successful results of this programme were made known to CASIC by 2002, and as expected, the 200km-range YingJi-63 (YJ-63, also known as KD-63) became China’s first land-attack ALCM and entered service with the PLA Air Force in 2005. Developed by the China Haiying Electro-Mechanical Technology Academy (CHETA, also known as 3rd Space Academy), the YJ-63 featured a ventral air intake, and was powered by a FW41-B turbojet, which was a reverse-engineered copy of the TRI 60-30 supplied by AERO to CHETA via CASIC, and which presently powers Pakistan’s MUPSOW-1 and the 350km-range Ra’ad (thunder in Arabic) ALCM; China’s YJ-63,  the Yingji-83 or YJ-83 Eagle Strike 255km-range anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM), the Yingji-82 or YJ-82/C-802A 180km-range ASCM, the 120km-range CM-802AKG ASCM, 170km-range C-705 ASCM, WJ-600 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV), and the 290km-range C-602 ASCM (120 of which along with 60 transporter-erector-launcher vehicles have been acquired by the Pakistan Navy from CASIC); Iran’s ‘Karrar’ (striker in Farsi) UCAV; and lastly, Turkey’s 190km-range ‘SOM’ ALCM, which was unveilled internationally for the first time by TUBITAK-SAGE at the Defence & Security Equipment International (DSEi) exhibition in the UK between September 10 and 13 last year. The 600kg ‘SOM’, armed with a 230kg warhead, has been under development since 2006 and it made its first guided-flight on August 9 over the Black Sea. Just like the Ra’ad, the ‘SOM’ uses GPS/INS guidance during its cruise phase, and an imaging IIR seeker for terminal guidance. The IIR seeker can also be used for providing image-based mid-course navigation by taking snapshots of waypoints and comparing them against predicted position to update the navigation system. The ‘SOM’ also has a two-way data-link that allows in-flight re-tasking, and it is network-enabled. It is believed that in addition to providing the FW41-B turbojets off-the-shelf, CHETA, through CASIC, provided several critical design-based inputs based on sea-level and high-altitude wind-tunnel tests for both the Ra’ad and ‘SOM’ ALCMs. In that sense, the Ra’ad is nothing but a re-engineered MUPSOW-1 that features a stretched fuselage, a fixed ventral air intake and twin vertical tailfins, twin swivelling horizontal fins, weighs 1,200kg, has a 450kg high-explosive fragmentation warhead, has a length of 5.1 metres, diameter of 0.17 metres and a wingspan of 3 metres (with its twin horizontal fins deployed), and cruises at a speed of Mach 0.8.
Apart from ALCMs, China is also helping Turkey to develop a range of GPS-guided glide-bombs. At DSEi 2011, TUBITAK-SAGE showcased the Hassas Gudum Kiti (HGK-1) GPS/INS guidance kit for Mk84 2,000lb-bombs, which bear a strong resemblance to China’s FT family of PGMs that have already been procured by the PAF. Turkey was forced to develop its own INS/GPS guided-weapons due to a reluctance by the US to provide the Boeing-built JDAM PGM—a void that China has yet again stepped in to fill. TUBITAK-SAGE claims that the HGK-1 was developed for the Turkish Air Force between December 2001 and February 2006. Guided drop-tests began at the end of 2005. TUBITAK-SAGE is working on designs for other bomb types, such as the 500lb Mk82 and 1,000lb Mk83. These PGMs will most likely use MILSPEC Py-code navigational updates from China’s ‘Beidou’ constellation of global GPS navigation satellites.Prasun K. Sengupta

41 comments:

Anonymous said...

While it may be somewhat dated, I've had some very interesting experiences when I visited Turkey with my family when I was about 9 years old in the mid-90s. While people across the country were indifferent when we introduced ourselves as Indians, we posed as Pakistanis just to see any differences in reaction. The change couldn't be more stark-the warmth was just overflowing. From free helpings at meals to even get discounts on souvenirs, claiming you are Paki helped. I don't know how it is these days, but Turkey is probably the only place where it seemed like a Paki identity was a badge of honour; even in the Persian Gulf, they are considered a nuisance.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@1.12AM: The average Turkish citizen in the 1990s had not been exposed to the average Pakistani citizen, since it was only the Pakistani govt officials that were travelling to Turkey those days and the Turks therefore presumed that the ruling elite of Pakistan were the same as the average Pakistani. This perception, however, changed after 9/11. In many ways the Turks committed a similar error in their assessment of Malaysia almost a decade ago, for they had believed that along with Turkey, it was Malaysia & Pakistan that constituted the most socio-economically progressive triad in the Islamic ummah. Things changed after a visiting Chief of the Malaysian Armed Forces' during an official ceremony at the mausoleum of Kamal Ataturk in Ankara refused to bow his head in respect after laying a wreath, claiming that such gestures are un-Islamic. To the senior Turkish military officers present at that ceremony, this was nothing short of culture-shock.

Ayatanvan Bhavati said...

@Dear Prasun. You have touched upon a very dangerous nexus. It has become a no go (don’t know) for Indian media but Israeli journals have been writing about this for a very long time.
I was about to write on this one but am not adequately equipped/informed and am waiting/looking out for a credible source to quote and knit all the loose ends. I am hoping that a deliberate leak is in the waiting through New York Times. Obama is not working with (as per the wishes of) the Jewish lobby. He shifted USGs (not USAs, not yet) strategic focus from Middle East to Asia Pacific.
If –If republicans come to power bulldozing Obamas 2nd term dream, we will see an Iran route to contain China Russia. Pakistan and turkey will come under fire/pressure too. India can have a breathing space.
If Obama comes back, he will push India, Indonesia,Korea, Japan, Australia etc against China .This will be second priority for republicans. New Chess board is set. All depends on USGs next move which will be after the US elections.
I would prefer republicans. Please share your thoughts on this one.

Ayatanvan Bhavati said...

Sharing a rough unedited note I had written 5 months back on this topic. Couldn’t complete the story because I wanted to include Turkish role in Arab Spring. Am still collecting the data.
Turkey going Nuclear: As Israel and EU watches from the side-line
Are they waiting for the right time? And what will be the right time to blow the whistle? USA is fully aware. Germany is ok with it. Germany-China love is going on for a very long time. Chinese manufacturing got all the technology from Germany. And Germany got the Chinese market.
BUT the Zillion dollar question is - Can EU afford a NUCLEAR (hyper nationalistic) state like Turkey right at their throat? Turkey had a very significant role vis-à-vis Arab-Europe conflict. CRUSADES, Adventures of Ottoman Empire, Struggle for Constantinople and fall of Byzantine Empire (now Istanbul).
They recently found their lost love for Muslim Umma. Khilafate Usmania. Turkish school books say that our generals invaded Kafiristaane Hind 17 times. We ruled India for 1000 years. And Pakistani generals find a common ground of engagement with the Turks on this one.
In 2009, a train service started between Pakistan and Turkey (via Iran).Feasibility study and construction was done by the Chinese. Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. 3 Chinese Angles.
In 2011, Turkey Invested $150 mil to setup a physics lab in Pakistan ”where both countries will share each other’s achievements in the fields of high end research and move towards capacity building”. Samar Mubarakmand frequents Turkey for his long holidays, for seminars and felicitations as a state guest.
You have the sources and reach and the expertise to pursue this ‘turkey going nuclear’ story. I was hoping if you could share something/anything on this one.

Ayatanvan Bhavati said...

A good read..http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/7569/turkey-pakistan-ties-indias-loss-is-chinas-gain

Ayatanvan Bhavati said...

Republicans will fuel balochistan and Kurdistan movements.Balochistan was burning when Bush was in power...See what democrats were writing in 2006...http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=2319

Ayatanvan Bhavati said...

One useful info I want to share.Allama Iqbal had a strong German Turkish connection.Which made him write about Khilafat,Ummat.His poetry(khilafat,khudi)influnced Muslim league,Jinna,liyaquat ali to conceve the Idea of Pakistan.Nazaria e pakistan is the brainchild of Turkik influence on Iqbal.Its all there in pakistani and turkish school books.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Ayatanvan Bhavati: The prospects of Iran or Turkey or Saudi Arabia acquiring the expertise to fabricate nuclear weapons are still dim for the foreseeable future. While Iran is known to have acquired about three ready-made warheads from one of the Central Asian Republics in the early 1990s, Tehran’s ability to integrate such warheads with its existing arsenal of liquid-fuelled ballistic missiles of North Korean origin remains highly suspect. The same goes for Pakistan’s ability to arm its Ghauri-1 liquid-fuelled ballistic missiles, simply because the n-warheads of Pakistan are of Chinese make and therefore are incompatible with ballistic missiles of North Korean design. And North Korea has yet to demonstrate its ability to make miniaturised plutonium-based warheads. Therefore, if as part of a regional nuclear arms race, both the Turks & Saudis desire not just ready-made nuclear warheads, but also their delivery mechanisms—solid-fuelled (and not the more vulnerable liquid-fuelled) ballistic missiles—then where are these likely to come from? In my view, it can only come from China, with Pakistan acting as the ‘middleman’ or conduit. But will Beijing make all this happen? If yes, then can the global Jewish lobby remain a mute spectator to the emergence of such a stark existential threat? Will the EU and US then combine their respective diplomatic and military resources to prevent Beijing from once again engaging in blatant nuclear weapons proliferation? And how will both China and Russia react to the prospect of a delibitating US-led surgical air-strike against Iran’s chain of coastal anti-ship cruise missile sites (housing C-802 ASCMs delivered by China) & offshore oil exploration platforms to counter Iran’s threat to close the Straits of Hormuz? These are the issues that to me require urgent attention from the mandarins of South Block.

SherKhan said...

Well it seems pak got what they wanted out of the deal. Their own capability to maufacture and upgrade a standoff weapon to strike targets deep into india from a safe distance...whilst sharing the development costs!

I believe similar strategy is currently being followed for a number other platforms (e.g nasr). This will lead to strategic independence for pak without degrading its ability to defend itself.

Pak has always had turks come and visit. They are treated like our brothers and this is genuine warmth. In the west you also see Turks, Paks and Afghans together along with the north africans.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SherKhan: How can such activities lead to strategic independence? And from whom? At the end of the day such PGMs will continue to rely on crucial imported components like FOG-based inertial navigation systems, propulsion systems & the Beidou constellation of GPS satellites. Unless you're implying that almost near-total reliance on Chinese (and not European or US) OEMs will translate into strategic independence.

Pierre Zorin said...

Indian foreign policy and military strategy seems to be almost identical to the cricket team- great names, great experience, a proven track record and yet dismal failures at critical junctures allowing the camel to take the whole yard instead of the one inch!I can't for life understand why Turkey is a member of NATO because the great secular westernised republic that Kamal Ataturk created has long been drowning under islamist agenda.I wrote to the Israeli foreign ministry about their military cooperation with China and Turkey and asked why do they assist knowing that one day they will face their own nemesis. They remained quiet on that question quite obviously being a nobody I can't deserve any attention.I did get a vote of thanks from the Embassy for being a friend of Israel and a welcome to visit that nation.The other issue is, educated non militarised Pakistanis do not approve the military's obsession with India and I hope Imran's view that India and Pak are rivals not enemies get a greater prominence because by being stupidly obsessed on religious grounds, Pakistan is only allowing it to be a Chinese pawn in China's dream of acquaring a red "fried rice" of the world.

Anonymous said...

Hi, are not there 10 Kilo class in service with the IN ? And u said the IN give the ocean going role on the SSGN. Does this means that in addition to the 5/6 5000-7000 tn SSN the IN wants to purchase for escort & protection of it's fleet of SSBN, it will order further SSGNs. Also is the Scorpene suitable as a ocean going SSK?

Anonymous said...

Also what guided AGM having a good range and comparable to the Popeye are present in bulk with the IAF? Will the IAF order more Popeyes?Also is there any glide bomb type PGM equipped with a terminal seeker, inertial navigation and having a 100 + km range. Is any such PGM is in developement by DRDO? Also what about the light ER-PGM tender floated by the IAF to procure glide bombs? Also in a 2008 article of yours I read that the no of Elta 2083 to be purchased is 6? What about that. Does the Elta ADR provide greater range than the THD 1955? Pls reply.

Mr. Ra 13 said...

Turkey is practically situated at the fringe of everything starting from West Europe, East Europe, Asia, Jihad, capitalism and now defunct communism. So being at the crossroads, it has to be one of the most volatile places on the earth.

Pakistan is the best agent provocateur born in the history after Shakuni. Pakistan understood the strategic importance of Turkey and so it lured China in to a sort of capturing it.

Anonymous said...

watch how Russia is spending 600-billion dollars into refitting the army over the next ten years AND buying foreign equipment which is supported by their defense minister.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpjlCSHRH2Q&feature=plcp&context=C35dd061UDOEgsToPDskKwyx0rD0xLRCN9kyzh0Y-9

SherKhan said...

What pak gain by working with china is Practical know-how. This technology is affective though it may not be the latest but it for the first time gives them the chance to build up their own technological base. We are not talking about licence production but the whole 9-yards! This then gives them the chance to leverage this know-how into new areas. Thus reducing reliance on imports.

wrt GPS...how many countries have this independence?

@Pierre

Due to the free media in pak, solving the kashmir issue, quitely has disappeared. Furthermore when people see un-armed kashmiris being shot for demanding freedom...no pak politician will risk his life for india. Especially if its the same india that tries to screw pak at every chance it can get. As the americans have found out paks have very long memories and play the long game quite well. The ball is in india's court!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@1.50PM: India did procure 10 Type 877EKM SSKs, but only nine are in service. INS Sindhukirti, if I’m not mistaken, has been written off thanks to Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. The total no of SSGNs reqd by the Indian navy is nine (9). The Scorpene SSK can traverse the oceans but its discretion periods in the high seas in not conducive for ocean-going patrols.

To Anon@1.55PM: There’s no other PGM like Popeye or glide-bombs with the IAF or Navy. The BrahMos Blocks 2/3 missiles are far more lethal than the Popeye. No more Popeyes are to be ordered in future, unless there’s an emergency. A glide-bomb using GLONASS-K Py-code is under development by the DRDO. EL/M-2083s reqd by the three armed services number more than 16.

To SherKhan: About Py-code GPS navigational updates receiving capability from the Navstar constellation, it is available with all NATO countries minus Turkey. As for the GLONASS-K’s Py-code availability, both Russia and India can avail of this facility. The Europeans are building up their Galileo constellation of GPS satellites, while China has the Beidou constellation up and running. India’s IRNSS constellation is also under implementation. And as for un-armed kashmiris being shot for demanding freedom, are you also including the inhabitants of the Northern Areas, or do you consider the Northern Areas as a region not within the territorial boundary of Kashmir? Lastly, if it was India’s intention to screw Pakistan at every chance she could get, then don’t you think matters would have been decided by India once and for all in 1972? The point which Pakistani politicians, and not the military decision-makers, have long grasped is that the two-nation theory has long given way to the three-nation reality.

Anonymous said...

PRASUN can u pls tell why INS Sindhukriti has been written off by Hundustan Shipyard? Also are the Kilo class capable of conducting ocean patrols?

Anonymous said...

Govt to soon close deal for fighter jets

http://www.livemint.com/2012/01/09225047/Govt-to-soon-close-deal-for-fi.html

Mint is reporting unconfirmed claims that the Eurofighter has emerged as L-1? Have you heard this-I remember you posting that the CCS has decided on the Rafale in an older thread. The government is supposedly calling in both bidders on Thursday. Might as well split the deal and save all of us from the misery of waiting!!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@10.52PM: That's because HSL ripped open the Sindhukirti for a refit without any knowledge on how to reassemble it back! This SSK has spent more than 70% of its service life in the dry-dock at Vizag. For a diesel-electric SSK to go on ocean-going patrols ut must come equipped with SATCOMS communication systems, among other things. None of the in-service IN SSKs have this type of communications, and instead rely on VLF comms channels. Things will change once nuclear-powered submarines enter service and the Navy's GSAT-7 comms satellite becomes operational.

To Anon@12.17AM: If the lowest bid was the sole criteria for selecting the M-MRCA, then the MiG-35, Gripen IN or F-16IN would have won a long time ago. I had earlier posted that the 'buzz' in Delhi is that that the CCS has decided in principle in favour of the Rafale. But of course this 'buzz' can be disproved between now & Thursday.

Anonymous said...

Prasun @ 12.42am,

Of course the buzz may change but I'd argue that the L-1 claimant has a very solid basis to push its case or protest an alternate award. The aircraft you mentioned were evicted on technical parameters as per the IAF while the EF and Rafale were cleared. So even if the EF is L1 and Rafale gets the nod, can't EADS protest the decision? Afterall offsets and strategic benefits are really subjective parameters

abs said...

hey prasunda, if at all the IN plans to only procure littoral operations submarines instead of ocean going ones, then how can one justify this, given the IN's stated objective of securing INDIAN interests stretching from the mid-east to the south china sea region??? wont having ocean going submarines serve as a potent deterrent as compared to the littoral water subs??

Anonymous said...

prasun, if ocean going ssks are difficult to operate how the PN sub came off to the vizag coast in 71. Why atleast on an experimental basis we are not making a sub (even if it takes decades) of our own. why should we wait till 2020s to start the inhouse designing. may not be state of art but atleast a prototype will help us assimilate technologies we need. It is another matter that we dont have the capacity to one, but even Iran and North korea has designed their own midgets. why not we develop on a test basis.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@12.52AM: In the end it all boils down to how the L-1 position is achieved and as per what definition, i.e. is one deriving the contract value based purely on flyaway costs, or is one also taking into account the total life-cycle costs to be incurred IN ADDITION to the flyaway costs, and finally to what extent will the contractual value be amortised by the quantum of proposed direct/indirect offsets offers in monetary terms.

To ABS: That is precisely why I had stated earlier that the IN has a stated reqmt for up to nine ocean-going SSGNs.

To Anon@3.12AM: All undersea operations carried out by the Pakistan Navy in 1971 were littoral operations not in the high seas and never involved ocean-going transiting. The SSKs always hugged the shallow Indian coastlines while navigating underwater and trying to make it safely back to base. And like I had explained in the previous thread, India had already acquired all the design packages and expertise reqd for making SSKs, i.e. the Class 209/Type 1500 model. The entire design till this day remains the exclusive property of India. There is no need to go galavanting all over the world yet again trying to acquire a design package. It is already there inside India and for India alone. All that needs to be done is wipe the dust off these designs, then sign a new contract with Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (which now owns HDW) under which this German OEM will assist Mazagon Docks Ltd to modify the Class 209/Type 1500 design in order to accommodate a AIP plug-in, which HDW had designed way back in 2000. Hell, India can even buy the AIP plug-in's design package on an exclusive basis and strike an industrial JV to with Siemens to series-produce this plug-in, and in future even market the AIP-fitted version of the Class/Type 1500 SSK on a global basis, since it is India that owns all IPRs for this model (just as South Korea owns the IPRs for the Class 209/Type 1400 SSK and is now exporting them to Indonesia). It is thus exactly like the OFB sitting all these years on the design packages for the FH-77B 155mm/39-cal howitzer and only now discovering in an Eureka moment that this howitzer can indeed be built in-country without any help or assistance from the DRDO. Therefore, no need to wait until 2020 to design and produce a homegrown SSK, we can do it right now as we already possess all the reqd means to do so. It's that simple and obvious.

KSingh said...

Hey I posted this in the IN thread but I taught it was now better to post here:


Hey Prasun,

Do you have any idea when we would/could be hearing news regarding the IN acquisition of the FireScout and MQ-4C Global Hawk UAV? As reports, some time back, we're the IN was VERY interested in both platforms and had been briefed on both. The FireScout would be a great addition to the IN as the attempts to convert Chetaks into UAVs with Israeli help seem to have fallen through. And the MQ-4 would be a great compliment to the P-8I and I believe the MQ-4C is designed to be operated from a -8 platform and at a time when maritime survellience is being emphasised again and again by GoI/MoD/IN it seems to be ideal for long range patrols.


You don't seem to have made reference to either platform for a while regarding the IN.

Anonymous said...

Prasun,

do you have any information regarding this-the reports have been very vague and Indian media seems to have nothing on it. Globes is a somewhat reliable Israeli business publication-

IAI signs $1.1b arms deal with India

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000713965

Anand said...

Hi Prasun,

Pls verify the nos. below:

Brahmos block 1(1 regiment operational)
Brahmos block 2(2 ordered,1 operational)
Brahmos block 3(1 ordered)

U said the range of Brahmos block 2/3 was increased to 550km.Will the hypersonic Brahmos II have the same rande since we plan to build the scramjet here itself?Will it come under MCTR?

Regards,

Anand.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To K Singh: The IN's interest is more on the Fire Scout-type of shipborne UAS. However, no firm procurement plans exist as of now. The Global Hawk is only of academic interest at this dtage, since operating it would require the use of satellites like the GSAT-7, which is not yet available. My personal choice for the shipborne UAS would be the single-engined LUH being developed by HAL which, with IAI's assistance, could easily be converted or modified as a shipborne armed UAS.

To Anon@5.53PM: That announcement was regarding the procurement contract for the Barak-2 MR-SAM consignments meant fore the Indian Navy.

To Anand: The range of the BrahMos Block-2 stays at 290km, but the BrahMos Block-3 has a 550km-range. As for the BrahMos-2 hypersonic missile, the scramjet will come from Russia, and not India. All work now underway on an indigenously-developed scramjet technology demonstrator concerns the HSDTV (which will be developed with assistance from Russia & Israel), and not BrahMos-2.

Anonymous said...

@Anon Jan 8,1:12 AM,

A lot of Turkish goodwill to Pakistan among the general Turkish population is the notion and projection that it was 'Pakistani muslims' that was the sole driver of the "Khilafat movement" against the dissolution of the ottoman empire after WW2 and that 'Pakisatanis' were the one's to take up the Turkish cause in south Asia. .Pakistan takes pains to avoid the fact the the Indian National Congress and Gandhi ji were also major participants in the Khilafat movement dovetailed into aims of swaraj.IN fact colonoal Indian ills are laid only at the doors of 'Indians'!The fact the Royal Indian Army ,esp Sikhs fought against the Turks is used to project 'Indians' as anti-turks and supporters of the British.The fact that Jinnah never went to jail or ever protested against the Brithish of-course is not highlighted!!!
India will not be part of any pan-Islamic feeling that also influences Turks in their liking for Pakistan.Their armies also have links from the CENTO/SEATO days
But,there is a gradual realisation in Turkey that India also has a very significant Muslim population and a place in Islamic history.India is also coming up not only as a militarily bur economically strong country as well and Turks do want more relations with India.
We need not be overly anxious about our relations with Turks,but we can work to make Turks realize Pakistan is not the sole repository of south Asia and correct the distortions made by them.
And as always,we have to keep our own guard up against the habitual Pakistani subterfuge.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

i have some querries and opinions hope to get yours for the same

a. Rumors are floating that EF has won the presumably $20 billion MMRCA deal, events like MICA deal for MBDA are to placate them.

1. everybody knows that the original $12 billion MMRCA deal will baloon to 20-21 billion post inflation adjustment, unt costing and others. do you really think its prudent to spend that much money when we are scratching heads to fund the $25 billion FGFA and $15 billion AMCA.

2. which ever jet wins the 1st will come by 2016 only and by the time 126th comes by 2028 (considering HAL style of work) we will be left with 300 Su30 (rumors say total will be), 80 LCA, 75 Jaguars, 45 Mig 29, 51 Mirages, 50 FGFA, 10 AMCA. This means option for 63 more for close to $12 billion (price adjust by time) will have to be taken, do you think MoF will even agree to that.

3. I feel even the current deal wont pass FM Pranab Mukherjee, best is to cancel it and go for Mirages Greece and UAE want to sell, your say

b. An article by ex-army Anil Athale says of a Chinese agression by May/June this year, also Chinses T55 tanks manouevring in NW China in areas similar to southern Tibet raises question

1. Will the Chinese leadership attack India to bolster its position in May/June just before its plenary.

2. Our PM is saying things similar to what our late PM said in 1961 before 1962 happened, do you expect tough political stand like 1971.

3. The May-June date also coincides with the retirement date of current Army chief and his demand for extension, would be around same time. Also no clear pic is there about who will lead after him, ultimately that may affect the IA morale.

All these coincidences dont auger well.

Whats hope opinion on these Prasun da

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

SSG said...

Prasun, South Korea and Greece faced various problems with their Type 214 SSKs. They are reported be more noisy than promised By the designer as per media report.

Also, what did we actually gained from the Scorpene deal tech wise ? Adm. Madhavendra Singh claimed there will be high amount of indigenous content in the last two subs. And is there research going on for a ULF sonar for the naval system in India ?

Anonymous said...

Prasunji,

Any update on how the MMRCA saga is playing out with claims on announcment on 12th/Thursday. Things seem to eerily quiet despite the article in the Mint paper. Do you still think the Rafale holds the aces?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Joydeep Ghosh: Regarding the M-MRCA, firstly, even if the EF-2000 is chosen, MBDA’s products loike the Taurus cruise missile will go on board, along with missiles like ASRAAM & Meteor. Secondly, as I had explained above, the final contractual cost figure will have to be defrayed against the offsets values that are ploughed back into India. Therefore, the nett contractual amount going out of India will be half than what’s being touted. Thirdly, no one has as yet released any definitive financial figure concerning the procurement of FGFAs. Fourthly, the contractual amounts will be paid progressively over a 20-year period at least, and not in one go, since the M-MRCA production line will be open for that period in order to fulfil the IAF’s production orders. And since the M-MRCA competition has reached a point of no-return now, it makes no sense to procure additional Mirage 2000s from anyone else. The time to procure additional Mirage 2000s was in 2004-2006, and at that time India could have procured at least three more squadrons of such aircraft from France (and not from the UAE or Greece), just as Brazil later did.
Now, regarding your query on Sino-Indian conflicts in future, you may recall that several such Indian commentators, including some MPs from Arunachal Pradesh, were saying in 2008 that after the conclusion of the Beijing Olympics, China would attack India. Well, as we now know, that didn’t happen. Therefore, there’s no reason to believe that by this June or even next year, such predictions will come true. The PLA Army’s T-55s wandering around in Xinjiang doesn’t constitute any threat at all to anyone, and its highlighting by certain Indian news broadcast journalists only indicates their mischievous intent. What has to be noted is that the PLA Army’s principal warfighting assets (they certainly don’t include T-55s) are not concentrated throughout southern Tibet, but only at an arc stretching from the border along Sikkim & Nepal all the way up to Aksai Chin. I will in the near future upload an analysis of the PLA’s war-waging plans along this piece territory.

To SSG: Tech-wise, from the Scorpene deal MDL only re-learnt what it had first learnt from the Germans in the mid-1980s, and that too only in terms of hull fabrication.

To Anon@12.55AM: Let’s wait for another few hours & see what happens.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

you say

'And since the M-MRCA competition has reached a point of no-return now, it makes no sense to procure additional Mirage 2000s from anyone else. The time to procure additional Mirage 2000s was in 2004-2006, and at that time India could have procured at least three more squadrons of such aircraft from France (and not from the UAE or Greece), just as Brazil later did.'

But Greece is totring on the verge of default and may raise flag by April then it may have to sell assets, so it will make sense to 'Make a offer they cant refuse'.

As for UAE whether it chooses the Rafale/EF/or other jet it has declared that it will sell the Mirages back to France or to 3rd country with French help.

My assertion says since we have signed upgrade contract for Mirages we can certainly buy them and upgrade them. All this should not gross over $6 billion in total including payment to France. All these are a must to augment the IAF squadrons which by 2016 when the 1st MMRCA come will be down to 25.

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Justin P. said...

Joydeep,

Despite it's financial situation, Greece remains a heavy military spender by European standards and there is little or no chance they are going to hang up their Mirages. These birds have been upgraded and are arguably their best interceptor as well as stand-off strike platform (with the Scalp missile).

If they retire aircraft prematurely, it will most likely be the A-7 Corsair and upgraded F-4s which are anyway nearing the end of their service life. The possibility of them handing over their Mirages is even more remote now as the Eurofighter consortium doesn't expect them to order new fighters for at least 6-8 years; so they closed their office in Athens last month.

A somewhat similar situation would exist with the UAE-they may decide to postpone their future fighter purchase by at least 2-3 years by which time both the MMRCA and upgraded Tejas should begin entering service. And their preference seems to be handing over their Mirages to a Middle Eastern partner like Libya, not us.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Justin P

thanks for your comments, I raised the Greek Mirage issue b'coz Greece had indicated last year itself that to trim its economic meltdown it was willing to sell its air assets, our buying those jets is based on their economic scene.

As for UAE Mirages all its neighbors have huge numbers of jets and UAE has indicated it will need French help to sell them to 3rd country, so we need to impress on the French to get these jets.

As for Libya despite petro dollars it doesnt have infrastructure let alone men to keep fly them, which we do.

As for any other Mid East nation, Suadis dont need them; Yemen is problem; Oman is looking for EF/F18, Iraq has gone for F16, Iran/Syria are out of question, Turkey is happy with F16 and may look for F35 in future.

So all these leave only India which needs to ramp up its numbers that will touch 25 squadrons or below by 2016.

So use some logic

Thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Justin P. said...

Joydeep,

I have used logic-thank you. According to an article by India Strategic, India did not show any interest in buying the UAE's Mirages.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-11-21/news/30424947_1_uae-armed-forces-dassault-deputy-supreme-commander

That could have been for any reason-politics, price, logistics etc. Libya will need fighters anyway and the Mirage-2000 would be a good bargain sale. You also need to add Tunisia to the list.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Justin P

I know all about this, and also the fact what India can do to keep its squadron numbers at optimal level. Whatever the case the buy back is such a option India will commit a harakiri to not accept it.

Mind you despite new jets being introduced we may never reach the ideal squadron strength of 39.5 in next 20 years let alone 45 squadron which ACM Browne has said is what India needs to properly guard its borders.

Lets not argue and hope better sense prevails.

Thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Justin P. said...

Joydeep,

It's not really a question of arguing. For one, we don't know why India turned down the UAE's Mirages or whether it was actually offered.

Price would have been an issue-there would have been resentment over the possibility of high costs in political circles. Both India and Indonesia turned down Qatar's small fleet of Mirage jets for that very reason. The usual logic is why not buy a brand new SU-30/Mig-29 or whatever else for the same money.

Secondly, ease of induction is also a debatable point since the UAE's Mirages use a different radar and electronic warfare suite than that proposed for India's Mirage-2000 upgrade. So that would have meant additional cost and time in bringing them to the same standard. The Indian navy decided against buying additional Sea Harriers for the same reason.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Justin P

that is why I said we need to get France in this and negotiate the best deal.

After all we are eating or will eat their Scopene, Super Scopene and Baracuda carrots.

Thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

OCAY said...

Dear Indian friends;

Most of article information is not so accurate.

Turkey-China had some tactical missile cooperation in late 90s with ROKETSAN; but it seems it is over.

TUBITAK-SAGE is not related with Chinese firms. SOM, HGK, KGK has been designed by TUBITAK-SAGE itself; related technologies underdevelopment since 90s..

Secondly I dont think there is no direct "missile relation" with Pakistan. But it is possible that Turkey may supply laser-ring gyros to Pakistan, or something like that for their missile programmes.

Now Turkey has "long range cruise missile programme" which will tested soon, it is over 1500km range with multiple seekers and warhead options.

For Pakistani nuclear programme I belive Turkey provided some presicion machinery systems to Pakistan in the past. Now I dont think that Pakistan will need any help from Turkey.

Turkey definetly has no intention to build nuclear weapons. But I belive that there is enough know-how for to make a bomb with in relatively short time frame.

Turkish support to Pakistan has no means of offense against India. Neither Turkish society nor the Government has no "bad feelings" against India. We hope both countries solve their problems for peacful way, and than both country spend their precious time and money to other part of world and domestic development.