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Sunday, March 16, 2014

The Devil Always Lurks Within The Detail

Forget this dictum, and the devil will be ever-ready to haul all our arses back to hell. And this is exactly what has bedeviled the Barak-2 LR-SAM programme of the MoD-owned Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO). And what has led to this rather expensive and time-consuming comedy of errors (about which I had known since 2011, but am revealing it all only now) being enacted is nothing else but the sheer lack of managerial skills of  India’s present-day Defence Minister, Arakkaparambil Kurian Antony.  
It may be recalled that India and Israel had inked the 70km-range Barak-2 naval LR-SAM’s joint five-year R & D contract—valued at US$556 million—on January 27, 2006, following 17 months of exhaustive contractual negotiations. For extended ground-based long-range air defence India’s Cabinet Committee on National Security (CCNS) had on July 12, 2007 approved a $2.47 billion project to co-develop the LR-SAM’s 110km-range variant for the Indian Air Force. Subsequently, on February 27, 2009 India signed a $1.4 billion procurement contract with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) for the Barak-2’s IAF-specific LR-SAM variant, and this was followed in April the same year by a $1.1 billion contract for procuring the Barak-2’s naval LR-SAM variant. Both variants were to have been co-developed by a consortium of entities that included the DRDO’s Hyderabad-based Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL), Hyderabad-based Research Centre Imarat (RCI) and Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL), and the Bangalore-based Electronics R & D Establishment (LRDE); plus Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) and Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL) on one hand; and a consortium of IAI’s MLM and ELTA Systems business divisions, RAFAEL and RADA Electronics. The LR-SAM’s critical design review was completed by early May 2008 and its DRDL-developed two-stage pulsed rocket motor was successfully test-fired earlier the same year. The first six sets of these rocket motors were shipped to RAFAEL by the DRDL in July 2008 for further test and integration activities. Series production was due to have begun in 2011 at the Hyderabad-based facilities of BDL.
Now, it so happened that during the contractual negotiations stage between IAI, RAFAEL and RADA on one hand and the MoD and DRDO on the other, the DRDO had ‘assumed’ that the Israeli OEMs would deliver fully integrated Barak-2 area air-defence weapon systems to the DRDO, which in turn would supply them to the Indian Navy (IN) through BEL and BDL. However, by 2012 it had become evident that the DRDO’s ‘assumption’ had in fact, morphed into the mother of all fuck-ups. And here’s why: the DRDO had wrongly assumed that the Barak-2 suite, comprising both the LR-SAM rounds and the 9-tonne, mast-mounted ELTA Systems-developed EL/M-2248 MF-STAR S-band volume-search active phased-array radar (APAR), would be fully integrated with the EMDINA Mk2 combat management system, or CMS (developed by the IN’s Weapons & Electronics Systems Engineering Establishment, or  WESEE) on board the three Project 15A guided-missile destroyers (DDG). In reality, since the Barak-2’s risk-sharing co-development effort was solely DRDO-led-and-driven from the Indian side, the DRDO never even bothered to seek WESEE’s feedback regarding systems integration challenges and taskings, and consequently—believe it or not— what the MoD-approved joint R & D contract between the India and Israeli military-industrial consortiums specified on paper only pertained to integrating the LR-SAM rounds with the MF-STAR’s fire-control systems, and never addressed the need for integrating this fire-control system with the EMDINA Mk2 CMS.
Consequently, the WESEE, which since the late 1980s had designed and developed, along with Russia’s St Petersburg-based Northern Design Bureau and SUDOEXPORT FSUE, the BEL-built EMCCA computer-aided action information system (CAAIS) for the three Project 16A FFGs and three Project 15 DDGs, the BEL-built EMDINA Mk1 CMS for the three Project 17 FFGs and four Project 28 ASW corvettes, was tasked by the MoD to only develop the applications software of the BEL-built EMDINA Mk2 CMS, plus help the MoD-owned Mazagon Docks Ltd design and fabricate the 9-tonne main mast housing the MF-STAR for the three Project 15A DDGs. Therefore, no responsibility was contractually fixed (by the MoD in its all-knowing wisdom) on who should integrate the Barak-2 suite with the EMDINA Mk2 CMS. As matters now stand, development of systems integration software began in only late 2012 after a supplemental R & D contract was inked between the WESEE and the Israeli military-industrial consortium, and the final end-product will not be available for in-country firing trials till late 2015.
So why did things go so horribly wrong? There are two reasons for that. Firstly, the MoD’s existing discredited practice of maintaining two separate files—the Service File (owned by the concerned armed services HQ) and the Ministry File (owned by the MoD’s civilian component) for each procurement project, and between which the latter is always the only one that is considered sacrosanct and is the only one that makes its way to the CCNS for final approval, needs to be done away with post-haste. Instead, joint accountability for every procurement decision-making process must be enforced so that the concerned Project Director from the concerned armed services works together with the concerned Joint Secretary of the MoD as an embedded team, instead of functioning within administratively isolated cubicles as is presently the case.      
Secondly, the DRDO, apart from approaching the IN for learning the art of contract negotiations of a military-industrial nature, should also have invested in acquiring a trials vessel on board which both the Barak-2 LR-SAM suite should have been integrated with the EMDINA Mk2 CMS and subjected to a series of developmental firing-trials at sea. Only after the successful completion of such sea-trials and their validation by the WESEE should a series-production indent have been placed by the MoD with the Indian and Israeli military-industrial consortium. One can now only hope that valuable lessons have been learnt by the MoD and DRDO and history won’t be allowed to repeat itself on board the four Project 15B DDGs and seven Project 17A FFGs. 

Creating Comatose Institutions
Another cardinal sin committed by RM A K Antony has been his total inability to transform the HQ of the Integrated Defence Staff (IDH) to the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) in to a functional institution. While the IDH should have been instructed and empowered by the MoD to introduce an element of discipline in the military procurement system (such as coordinating the procurement of LUH helicopters for the Army, IN and the IAF, and procurement of the combined package of 15 Boeing CH-47F Chinook heavylift helicopters and 145 BAE Systems-built LW-155 ultralightweight 155mm/39-cal howitzers), it can do very little since the officer heading the IDH, the Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff (CISC), is a three-star officer and is therefore junior to the four-star armed services chiefs. A brief explanation of the IDH and the CIDS will help appreciate the procurement process better. Following the Group of Ministers’ report released in February 2001, it was agreed that whle the institution of the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) would be the primary step in the structural reforms suggested for the MoD, the appointment of a Vice-CDS was instead created within weeks. But as the post of the CDS was soon opposed by the then Parliament’s Select Committee on Defence, the appointment of the Vice-CDS became untenable (vice to whom?). Finally, the Vice-CDS’ office was renamed and the CIDS to the COSC (CISC) came into being in September 2001. The CISC, who heads the IDH, now has two responsibilities: he is answerable to the MoD like any other Secretary in the MoD; and on the military side he is answerable to the Chairman of the COSC. Unfortunately, there are two fundamental limitations to both these roles. For, unlike the four Departments of the MoD—Defence, R & D, Production & Supplies, and Finance—the IDH has not been designated as the MoD’s fifth Department, and hence its activities are not coordinated by the Defence Secretary.

The reason for this is that while the armed services personnel could theoretically be posted within the MoD, a civilian cannot be expected to understand and do the armed services personnel’s job. Consequently, the CISC at present essentially remains answerable only to the COSC, and has little or no reason to report to the Defence Minister. Within the COSC, the individual armed service chiefs remain more aligned with their service needs than with the common causes, and there is always dissonance between the purple team (comprising the IDH with officers from the three armed services) headed by the CISC, and the COSC. This shortcoming can only be overcome with the appointment of the CDS, who is senior, and hence does not report to the COSC. The CDS would then become a voting member of the COSC and in that capacity he would provide single-point military advice to the Defence Minister and the CCNS. Therefore, had the three four-star armed service chiefs been instructed by A K Antony to work together to support the creation of the post of CDS, there would have been no need for them to individually and persistently explain to the Prime Minister’s Office and his National Security Adviser (who by the way needs to have a serving three-star military officer as a Deputy National Security Adviser) the five cardinal truths about national security, and by now the DRDO would have become far more accountable since, fearing technical audits of its diverse R & D projects, it would have ended its skullduggery—one example of which is its proposal to indigenously develop a 155mm/52-calibre ATAGS towed howitzer for the Army, while conveniently forgetting to hold consultations with the IN, which requires turret-mounted 155mm howitzers to serve as the main artillery armament for its future warship acquisitions.
A prime example of wasted opportunities due to sheer mismanagement of both the MoD and the IDH concerns the procurement of CH-47F Chinooks and LW-155 howitzers. While the Indian Army had by 2006 zeroed in on the need for air-portable ultralightweight 155mm/39-cal howitzers and had even drafted a GSQR for its procurement, the IAF, taking a cue from the Army, too finalised its ASQR for heavylift helicopters required for airlifting such howitzers by 2007. At this point in time itself, it should have become obvious even to someone with below-average IQ that irregardless of which howitzer would be ordered (the LW-155 or the Pegasus from Singapore’s ST Kinetics), the only available heavylift helicopter that is certified to airlift both these howitzers in an underslung configuration is the CH-47F—meaning while the howitzer could be selected after a competitive bidding process, the helicopter would have to be procured under a sole-source contract. This in turn meant that, in order to avoid corrupt practices while procuring the CH-47F, it was preferable to order the 15 CH-47Fs not by the direct commercial sale route, but via the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route. Instead, exactly the opposite was allowed to happen, i.e. Boeing and Russia’s Rosoboronexport State Corp were invited to: present their commercial bids in July 2009; and send their respective platforms—CH-47F and Mi-26T2—to India for in-country flight-trials on a no-cost-no-commitment basis. At the same time, the MoD conveniently forgot to coordinate matters with IDH and the COSC for the sake of killing two birds with one stone, i.e. requesting BAE Systems and ST Kinetics to send the LW-155 and Pegasus to India so that the Army and IAF could create a combined evaluation team for conducting competitive firepower/mobility evaluations in which both the CH-47F and Mi-26T2 too could have participated.
Another option that could have been pursued by the MoD via the IDH was to ensure that both the CH-47F and LW-155 were available in India for field-trials in February 2009 so that the CH-47F which had been ferry-flown to Bengaluru earlier that month for giving flying demonstrations at the Aero India 2009 expo, would subsequently be available for demonstrating the LW-155’s air-portability to both the Army and IAF. However, all this was not to be.   
Consequently, this is how matters played out in a dysfunctional manner: while both Boeing and Rosoboronexport State Corp submitted their respective proposals to the IAF in October 2009, the MoD’s Defence Acquisitions Council (DAC) cleared the proposal for buying 145 LW-155s for $660 million on only May 11, 2012 through the FMS route (even though Army HQ had forwarded all paperwork to the MoD as far back as July 2010 when the LW-155 deal was estimated to cost only Rs.30 billion ($477 million). In addition, an Army ‘maintainability evaluation team’ had visited the US from February 8 to 25, 2011 to examine the LW-155. However, it was only on August 2, 2013 that the MoD officially requested the US for the sale of 145 LW-155s, whose price had then escalated to $885 million. Subsequently, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSAC) on August 7, 2013 notified the US Congress of a potential FMS of the LW-155s along with Selex-built laser inertial artillery pointing systems (LINAPS), warranty, spare and repair parts, support and test equipment, maintenance, personnel training and training equipment, as well as engineering and logistics support services and other related elements of logistics support.
Later that year, when the LW-155 was deployed to Sikkim for in-country high-altitude firepower/mobility trials, the absence of the CH-47F was direly felt and consequently, the trials could not be conducted in the areas specified by the Army due to the absence of in-theatre certified heavylift platforms. It is due to this reason that the LW-155 was: unable to demonstrate its direct firing capabilities by day and night; unable to demonstrate its compatibility with the Army’s Firing Tables; unable to demonstrate its air-portability in underslung mode; unable to demonstrate its sighting system at nighttime; and unable to demonstrate its built-in communications system at high altitudes. The IAF too refused to airlift the LW-155 in underslung mode with its existing Mi-26Ts in Sikkim. And why did the IAF refuse to do so? Simply because A) the Mi-26T is not certified to carry this weapon underslung and consequently the IAF does not have SOPs in place to carry out such a heavylift operation; and B) the IAF therefore did not have in its possession the hooks and cables required for rigging the LW-155 to the Mi-26T in underslung configuration.  


Yellow Journalism Yet Again
In this news-report (http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/russians-go-slow-sukhoi-fleet-in-trouble), it has been alleged that 50% of the IAF’s Su-30MKI fleet remains grounded because of A) multiple cases of repeated failure of Mission Computer-1 and blanking out of Head Up Displays (HUD) and all Multi-Function Displays (MFD) in flight since 2012. B) Due to non-availability of facilities for overhaul of aggregates (aircraft parts), following which the serviceability (availability for flying) of Su-30MKI is slowly decreasing and demand for Aircraft on Ground (AOG) items on the rise as of December 24,  2013. C) Due to Russia’s inability to set up the MRO workshops at HAL’s Nashik-based facility by December 2013, and that this facility was originally scheduled to overhaul the first Su-30MKI by June 2014. Consequently, five Su-30MKIs are already parked at HAL for extensive overhaul, and another 15 will be due for overhaul in the current year.
Now, let’s separate fact from fiction. Firstly, both the Su-30MKI and MiG-29B-12 were originally designed and certified to log in no more than 120 flight-hours per annum. Despite this, the IAF has been following Western standards of flight operations by requiring its air warriors to log in at least 25 flight-hours per month, or about 275 flight-hours every year, or 2,750 hours in a decade. Furthermore, the IAF has been way behind schedule when it came to service-induction of cockpit procedures trainers and full-flight simulators for the Su-30MKI. Ideally, such flying training aids should have been commissioned into service in a progressive manner since the last quarter of 2002, but this process didn’t commence until the final quarter of 2009. Now, if 275 flight-hours are logged in by a Su-30MKI, then within five-and-a-half-years itself it would have reached its scheduled time-between-overhauls (TBO) of 1,500 hours for both the airframe and turbofans, while the prescribed Russian timetables call for the Su-30MKI to approach its TBO after only a decade, i.e. after the Su-30MKI has been flown for 120 hours every year for at least a decade. What this translates into is that the HAL-owned-and-operated MRO facility for the IAF’s Su-30MKIs should have become operational by early 2008 at the latest. Consequently, HAL is behind schedule by six full years when it comes to commissioning such a MRO facility.  
Now, coming to the issue of the premature in-flight malfunctions of the Su-30MKI’s ELBIT Systems-built Type 967 HUD, THALES-developed MFD-55 and MFD-66 AMLCDs, and the DARE-developed and HAL-built mission computer. Firstly, it must be noted that the malfunctions are not across-the-board or affecting the entire fleet of Su-30MKIs, but only those airframes produced for the last tranche of 10i-standard Su-30MKIs and the first tranche of 11i-standard Su-30MKIs. At most, therefore, no more than 40 Su-30MKIs will be affected by such avionics-related malfunctions. This then brings us to the probable causes of such malfunctions. Prima facie, there is only one probable cause: faulty hardware—most likely wiring harnesses or cable connectors. What has to be established is whether these items came directly from Russian OEMs (in which case product liabilities will those of Rosboronexport State Corp and IRKUT Corp) or were they sourced from India-based OEM-licenced vendors. This can easily be done PROVIDED HAL has its in-house required set of item-specific test-benches and ATE equipment. As another option, HAL can also make use of ADA’s test-benches and ATE equipment, while DARE can be approached for replicating a fully-functional mock-up of the Su-30MKI’s cockpit avionics architecture—since DARE is presently involved with a similar task concerning the cockpits of the projected Super Su-30MKI.
But what is most exasperating is that despite decades of experience in licenced-manufacturing of various types of combat aircraft of foreign origin, neither the MoD’s Department of Defence Production & Supplies nor HAL till this day have grasped the need for achieving 100% indigenisation for the tens of thousands of rotables, consumables and accessories that go into each aircraft-type. Instead, the focus continues to be on the licenced-production of airframes through raw materials sourced locally and from abroad. Such a distortion can only result in an undesirable reliance on foreign OEMs for the smallest but most critical components, which in turn severely compromises the IAF’s operational sovereignty over its aircraft/weapons assets.
Lastly, a word on the so-called combat aircraft fleet availability rates in peacetime. No air force in peacetime boasts of combat aircraft fleet availability rates of 75%. Such high rates are mandatory for only flying training aircraft like BTTs, AJTs and LIFTs. In reality, the availability rate of combat aircraft fleets hovers between 50% and 60%. If the national security scenario worsens over a period of time, then the availability rates are increased progressively (as was the case with the IAF in both 1999 and 2002), depending on the type of conflict envisaged, i.e. limited high-intensity conflict confined to a single theatre, or a full-blown all-out war. In case of the latter, fleet availability rates are jacked up to 90% for Day-1 of the war. By Day-2, the rate drops to 75% and by Day-4, the availability rate stabilises at 50% while ensuring a high tempo of daily sortie generation. It is based on such estimates that any self-respecting air force does its force-structure planning.

183 comments:

DAshu said...

he is the most incompetent Defense Minister India ever had. no doubt in that .

Ranjit said...

Prasunda,

What is this fear against releasing any picture of Indian Arihant class submarine? Is it so bad looking or primitive that Indian Navy doesn't even want to show it to the world? While British Astute, French Barracuda, even Japanese Soryus are all over the newsboard.

Can you please ask these buffons to release some authentic complete picture to the media for reinstating some confidence in people.

And how long the harbour trials will go on before the sea trials begin? Its been almost three years of harbour trials and even Submarine support ships has also come. Now what is the delay?

Sarab aka Mirza said...

How much cost this fuck up you mention to the nation timecost wise & moneywise?

ashi jain said...

Prasun sir happy holi...
I want to ask that is arihant class submarine is of world class & is s80 or amur class are good as scorpene sub and there are any chances that they can win p75i submarine contracts...

Sujoy Majumdar said...

Prasun Da ,

HAPPY HOLI

Has work on the P15B already commenced ?

Probably I am not up to speed on this but AFAIK work on P15A Kochi & Chennai had not even begun .

Also , I feel that MoD should have distributed these projects to some private shipyards as well instead of giving all the projects to MDL .

But then in the Land of the Blind , the One Eyed Man is the King .



VMT

Sujoy

bradshaw said...

Is this going to affect the Air force version of LR SAM ?? I dont think that will have any integration issues ?? Also like any missile under devlopment ex. Astra , Brahmos etc. why there is no single real video available of Barak-8 live firing till now ??

DAshu said...

off topic- after Crimea , which is most likely going to join Russia.
It is evident that no one is fearing US anymore . without fear Pakistann screwed US for 10 years and now they are going to pack up and leave Afghanistan .Only India still fears US .

DAshu said...

why cannot India issue a statement saying this IFS lady was guilt and US is right to indict her and go for a settlement with US.

prateek said...

sir ,
in the comment section of the last thread you said..
" Furthermore, as per the IN’s projections, what it requires are 217 warships, submarines & auxuliaries & 74 aircraft/helicopters. But what is requires by 2022 are 160 naval vessels, 3 aircraft carriers & 60 warships. Presently the IN has only 76 vessels & 45 aircraft, i.e. the IN is 70% short of its stated reqmts"

are you taking about IN or ICG ??
IN can't have only 45 aircraft..& they outlined a plan acc to which IN was poised to operate 500 ac by 2022/2027..

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: No, not him. Most incompetent was Krishna Menon.

To RANJIT: One reason could well be that the country’s decision-makers don’t take necessary pride in such achievements. Another could be lack of self-confidence within the DRDO to show it, lest it bear a strong resemblance to some Russia-origin design. The only authentic photo released thus far appears in a UPA-1 booklet published in 2009 on the eve of general elections in which the UPA-1 hailed the ATV Project as being one of its achievements, meaning when it cpmes to one’s own selfish political objectives, then no fears of compromising national security will act as a restraint on politicians. HAT is still underway, following the achievement of full criticality the S-2/Arihant’s on-board PWR. Exyensive tests of the on-board pipings, valves & cable harnesses are still underway. Main problem now is unavailability of DSRVs since such vehicles are made only by the US & Sweden. All others, like Russia, the UK & Norway, make only DSVs that are used for deep-sea oceanographic research. I for one would not therefore venture out with a first-of-type nuclear-powered submarine unless & until I acquire a decent DSRV.

To SARAB AKA MIRZA: Well, at least US$60 million, at the very least. Overall, cost escalations amount to 225% for the programme to build three Project-15A DDGs, about 260% for the programme to build three Project-17 FFGs, & and about 157% per for the four Project-28 ASW corvettes.

To ASHI JAIN: It depends on how you wish to benchmark it. If you want to compare S-2/Arihant with the Virginia-class SSGN, then obviously the former will appear as an inferior product. If the Amur 950 or Amur 1650 were good designs, then by now they would already have entered service with the Russian Navy. Since they haven’t, a big question-mark remains over their reliability.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Of course it has. Did so in January 2013 & keel-laying was done last June, as indicated in the poster above, which I had also uploaded previously. INS Kochi & INS Chennai are fitting-out now at the wet-basin of MDL. Delays are not just attributable to shipyards like MDL. Most of the time, the IN’s Directorate of Naval Design (DND) is to be blamed for not freezing the warship’s design. For INS Kolkata alone, there have been 2,300 structural changes to the superstructure so far. Then the transmission shafts for the propellers was to have come from Ukraine, but the OEM there closed shop & a repeat order had to be placed with a Russia-based OEM. On top of it all, DMR-249A-type steel had to be imported from Russia, which again was a time-consuming process.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BRADSHAW: IAF version of Barak-2 LR-SAM has already been integrated with EL/M-2084 Arudhra MPRs. However, integration of LR-SAM-based area air-defence networks with the IACCCS architecture is behind schedule. Of course videos of actual Barak-2 test-firings are available from IAI & RAFAEL. They were shown as promotional videos last year during Aero India 2013.

To DASHU: Because if India were to admit that this lookalike-of-an-expat-Filipino-maid was indeed guilty, then the UPA-2 will stand to lose a lot of Dalit votes. Don’t forget that she has classified herself as hailing from a scheduled caste. Therefore, the state of official denial will continue till this May.

To PRATEEK: It is all about the IN & NOT about ICGS at all. As per the IN’s future force modernisation projections, what it requires are 217 warships, submarines & auxuliaries & 74 aircraft/helicopters. But what has been sanctioned by the Govt of India ONLY ‘in principle’ is a force strength by 2022 of 160 naval vessels, which includes 3 aircraft carriers & 60 warships. Presently the IN has only 76 vessels & 45 aircraft. What the IN has TODAY is only 45 aircraft. Even by 2027 it won’t be operating 500 aircraft. The figure of 500 refers not just to aircraft, but also includes UAVs of all types, something the ‘desi’ news-reporters have failed to grasp. Hence the resultant clusterfuck.

prateek said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_military_aircraft#Indian_Naval_Air_Arm

sir ,even if you include only fixed & rotary wing manned assets AC held by IN are way more than 45..
even if the info on above page is not accurate..45 is too small a no.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRATEEK: If that is indeed the case, then why for the past three years most IN principal surface combatants have been spotted during various bilateral & national naval exercises without their shipborne Sea King Mk42B & Ka-28PL helicopters? What's the present availability rate of these helicopters? Why have most warships been seen only with SA.316B Alouette-3 helicopters on board? Think about it.

Rajeev Chaturvedi said...

Prasunda,

1. How much similarity exists between INS Arihant and Akula/INS Chakra?

2. I checked that photo of INS Arihant from Congress manifesto of 2009-10. Its the one which is also in wikipedia. Going by that photo itself, the sail looks quite refined and the structure is also decent. What is your view of the sub?

3. I believe one INS Chakra was leased because IN wanted to train its crew it nuke sub warfare. What is the next one/two being leased for? Even though there is much opposition against anymore lease.

4. You mentioned about US and SWEDEN only having the DSRV but there were reports that Canada and UK had also offered their DSRVs to India. Remora and other ones were in the contention and even US has retired its own DSRV in the favour of these. So which DSRV India is looking to purchase? And how much time it will take? Have they started the process yet?

5. When Kalyani group is projecting to manufacture ULH guns in next 2 years, what is the hurry now to buy it from BAE/US? In any case, the need for LW155 guns is near-about 1000 so the purchase of 145 would not be sufficient. So why not wait a while and let Kalyani develop their ULH gun?

Thanks very much.

anil said...

hi prasun,
how can i post images which i took at HAL PAVILION at indiaaviation2014 ?

Rajeev Chaturvedi said...

Prasunda,

Happy Holi to you and your family. May this festival bring you loads of fun and happiness.

Pierre Zorin said...

Looks like while Indians are celebrating and looking colourful in Holi, the government kitty and public purse is looking more Holey - a result of one stuff up after another!

financeblogger said...

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/russians-go-slow-sukhoi-fleet-in-trouble

Is it true, that only 50% of the SU30MKI is operational?

Vikram said...

Dear Sir

Most of your posts are about the NAVY

Why dont you write more about IAF
modernisation and transformation

These days IAF officials use this word TRANSFORMATION many times
while speaking to the media

Also please write about Indian Army's Programmes about implementing Cold Start ; PRAHAR
Missiles

I read an 2010 news article of DAWN Pakistan where Gen Kayani
was saying

" India would be able to implement
Cold start FULLY BY 2015 "

http://www.dawn.com/news/858309/kayani-spells-out-threat-posed-by-indian-doctrine

With Best Regards and Many Thanks

Please don t take My Navy Comments
in a wrong way

rohit said...

Hi Prasun Da: Happy Holi.
Does the Navy Desire to have subs in league with Ohia class and Virginia class?

Does the DRDO have any ambition to go further beyond Arihant and Akula to compete with the above class of subs in future or they are happy copying akulas and the borio's in future.

rad said...

HI Prasun

Rather than wait for the bums to integrate the barak and its radar into the CMS of the kolkata class ships , is it ok to get their israeli system and have a separate panel console with cabling, till the integration is over so to be familiar with the system.

Jaidev said...

Prasunda,

Happy Holi to you and family.

1. How effective do you think the DF-21D ASBM would be against US Aircraft Carriers? Is it quite accurate or just a hype?

2. What is your reading of PLA's interoperability quotient? Have they integrated their forces and joint ops capability? Please explain in detail.

3. Even Chinese weapon manufacturing companies are all state owned. Then how come these state-owned companies have emerged as third largest exporter in world of arms, while Indian companies are stuck with stupids who are experts in delay and cost-escalation?

Thanks and Happy Holi.

Veer Pratap said...

Prasun,

1. What will be the band of Scorpene's price with AIP, for follow on submarines? Any concrete idea?

2. It seems India would need massive amount of heavyweight torpedoes and anti-ship/land attack cruise missiles. So is there any attempt being made to locally produce Club missiles or similar ones?

3.This Russian plan for SSN, which you explained earlier, with 190MW reactor on the basis of Arihant, will it be as quiet as Akula and Virginias? Arihant only has 4 VLS tubes while any normal SSN would be required to have at least 12 VLS tubes. So will it an improved version, in that case even increasing its weight as well?

4. Chinese are claiming that their Shang class SSN is as quiet as earlier classes of Los Angeles subs. Is it possible? How many reactors these boats have? Will you sometime do a posting on Chinese nuke subs to increase our awareness?

Thanks and Happy Holi.

RD said...

Prasunda,
Nothing much will change even if we get a non-upa raksha mantri in coming days. To pass a deal u have to 'satisfy' every person from top to bottom. Delay is happening in every damn projects in India & defence is not an exception. Every parties in India have mutual understanding among themselves. In India to pass a file from 1 table to another it requires not commission but a percentage of the deal. As always opposition will be ready in aiming guns with the help of cbi,cag. In this situation no raksha mantri will be ready to become the scapegoat.

Finally we have to take a closer look at the economics. If accounts r empty then deals will automaticillay get delayed. The important deals(in $) can be roughly listed as-
rafale- 20-25 billion
c17-c130-avro replacement-p8i- 12 billion
p75i- 12-15 billion
ssn-ssbn-p17-p15- 12 billion
fgfa-amca-10 billion
chopper for all forces- 10 billion
mbt-howitzer-finsas-rifle-javelin- 10-12 billion
mountain strike-coast guard-central forces modernisation,drdo-ofb-hal-ada research- recurring expenditure
The list is endless & is impossible to get green signal in coming 2 or 3 five year plans.

Surely no govt. will ever dare to stop mnrega,2rs rice & other yojanas to fund defence. Lastly we should not compare ourselves with China who don't spend 30,000 crores in elections.


abs said...

@Prasunda
What happened to the announcement and formal decision on CDS that was supposedly to be held on 26th January? Did 'Crisis Management' make for misplaced priorites?
Perhaps Saint could have redeemed a bit of lost glory by this decision. Alas that all his friends are now feigning illness to not be named in the LS lists #LuLz

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJEEV CHATURVEDI: VMT. 1) Hardly any, both structurally & from a systems standpoint. 2) My view? It will make an excellent SSN or even SSGN, but a lousy SSBN due to unavailability of long-range SLBMs. 3) There are no more spare Project 971A Shchuka-B SSGNs available for lease. 4) The DSRVs of the US, Canada & UK are ALL from Ocean Works of Canada. The Remora RORV from this very same Canadian company, which was selected by the IN, could not be procured because A K Antony panicked when an anonymous letter was sent to him complaining about the selection process. 5) Kalyani’s proposed ULH is 105mm, not 155mm.

To ANIL: Kindly create your own blog at blogpost & upload as many images as you want to. That’s the best option.

To PIERRE ZORIN: It suits them all just fine, given their ‘who cares’ attitude. That’s precisely the reason why the Indian Navy for the past 3 weeks has been without a full-time Chief of the Naval Staff. Show me any other self-respecting Navy in the world that survives like this!!!

To FINANCEBLOGGER: Yes, that’s correct, but not for the reasons highlighted in that trashy work of ‘yellow journalism’. Will explain it all in the narrative above in this very thread later today.

To VIKRAM: Looks like you’ve not seen the narrative above in this very thread on the CH-47F/LW-155 that I had uploaded yesterday. Cold Start doctrine cannot be implemented SIMPLY BECAUSE it doesn’t exist, both officially & unofficially.

To ROHIT: Who can desist from such desires? But utopia & reality are at two opposite ends of the pole. The DRDO hasn’t copied any design at all from anyone. The design of the Arihant was bought from Russia & is an IN-specific design, & the same also applies to the futuristic S-5/S-6/S-7 SSBNs as well.

To RAD: Familiarity & operational proficiency can always be gained through simulators—a far cheaper option.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JAIDEV: 1) The ASBM doesn’t exist, period. Had it been possible to develop such ASBMs, the US would have done so during the Cold War era itself. Reality is that the laws of physics precludes anyone from developing ASBMs. 2) That process is still on-going on a piecemeal basis & that too only on the plains & not on the highlands & certainly not within Tibet. From the PLA’s standpoint today, the PRC doesn’t face any conventional threats from anyone. No one wants to invade the PRC either. Consequently, its main objective today is border domination in peacetime & staying prepared for regional emergencies that may emanate from either North Korea or from the more unstable Central Asian Republics like Kyrghyztan or Kazakhstan—the latter concerning rising civilian unrest within Xinjiang. It is for this reason, when viewed from the PLA’s kaleidoscope, that I personally that India should stop perceiving the PLA as being 9 feet-tall. 3) It all boils down to leadership & national resource management/harnessing. That’s why state-owned institutions there can take on the implementation of mega-urban renewal projects & achieve their targets between 3 and 6 years.

To VEER PRATAP: 1) Price-levels vary depending on the size of orders placed. If only follow-on Scorpene SSKs were ordered, then the unit-price will be lower than what India is paying for the first 6 Scorpenes. If AIP plug-in is included, then the price-level will increase by only another 25% per unit. 2) The Nirbhay LACM can easily be employed as an ASCM by just devising new target recognition algorithms for its existing X-band SAR seeker. 3) Arihant can launch only four 3,500km-range SLBMs that are now in development. But if such SLBMs are armed with BrahMos-1 ASCMs or Nirbhay LACMs, then the space available inside the Arihant’s VLS compartment goes up & it can accommodate between 8 and 12 such missiles. Quietening is not just about the propulsion system, but also about mountings & fitments using vibration dampeners. They too need to be state-of-the-art. 4) No, that’s not true, as highlighted by the US Defense Intelligence Agency way back in 2010. The Shang-class SSN is far noisier than the INS Chakra, according to both US & Japanese naval intelligence agencies.

To RD: Delays are happening because the person (A K Antony) who is the RM is also the No.2 in the Federal Cabinet at the Centre & he’s therefore heading 107 different committees & the poor sod also has to oversee the implementation of 147 different centrally sponsored welfare schemes/give-aways. In such a scenario, how can one expect him to spend even 2 hours every day at the MoD???

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: This is going a bit too far:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Malaysia-not-disclosing-all-details-Indian-officials/articleshow/32212698.cms

It's high time Malaysian officials realised that even though showing total disregard for visually identifying unidentified airborne target-tracks on civil or military ATC radars may be the norm in Malaysia, it isn't for other countries. Furthermore, no airliner can makle an unscheduled landing & stay hidden at airfields or air bases or airports that are manned 24/7. Even a child will come to this elementary conclusion! Malaysian authorities should therefore reveal more about the backgrounds of the two other passengers whose identities have not yet been disclosed (out of the four initially suspected to be as dubious characters).

Instead, the following appears far more plausible:

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/disturbing-scenarios-on-mh370/article5797358.ece?homepage=true&ref=relatedNews

But even in this case, NONE of the airfields, air bases & airports in the Indian Ocean islands are unmanned.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABS: What we have been witnessing since 2011 is a comedy of contradictions. For instance, on one hand everyone says that civilian supremacy over the military is unquestioned & reigns supreme within India, & yet when it comes to civilian intervention or arbitration on issues like armed services integration & operational command-and-control over military assets (like attack helicopters), the civilians are the first ones to chicken out of the debate by saying that the armed services need to resolve their institutional contradictions internally! In other words, the civilian political decision-makers are not interested in doing the jobs they’re paid to do. That’s precisely the reason why the Indian Navy for the past 3 weeks has been without a full-time Chief of the Naval Staff. Show me any other self-respecting Navy in the world that survives like this!!!

Here’s what has happened after the ‘abdication of command responsibility’ by Admiral D K Joshi: the PMO consulted the other two armed services chiefs about who should become the next CNS, meaning should the next seniormost officer of the IN automatically become the CNS, or can someone else be appointed as well? To this, the COAS & CAS both stated that since it has been a written policy decision for all three armed services to appoint only the seniormost officer as the chief of either the IN, IA or the IAF, this practice should be adhered to this time as well. If not, then this will create demoralising rumblings within the IAF & IA as well. The second option given by the COAS & CAS was that if the present-day policy decision is to be changed by selecting the chiefs through a ‘deep selection’ process, then the MoD’s bureaucracy should come up with the necessary policy-level guidelines, i.e. yet another new ‘committee’ should be created to tackle this issue. This is how time is being wasted while the IN remains headless at the top. So, if the principle of seniority is upheld, then the present FOC-in-C of the WNC, VADM Shekhar Sinha ought to be the next CNS. The second seniormost officer is the present VCNS, VADM Robin Dhowan, followed by the FOC-in-C of ENC, VADM Anil Chopra, & followed by the FOC-in-C of SNC, VADM Satish Soni.

Cont’d below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Now, coming to the “abdication of command responsibility by Admiral D K Joshi” (i.e. throwing in the towel & seeking premature retirement), he should have reigned in the bull by its horns by taking to the RM a time-bound schedule of ‘actions-to-be-taken, which should have included:

A) An immediate schedule to implement the ‘Figure of Merit’ serviceability matrix originally conceived by CNS Admiral O S Dawson in the mid-1980s under which all warships older than 12 years were to have an enhanced spares support package inclusive of increased quantum of spares inventory.

B) Conduct a performance audit of all naval dockyards & rectify existing material and manpower shortcomings.

C) Enact new regulations with the IN’s Chief of Materials under which all locally-sourced spares, rotables & consumables were to be ordered based on their 100% compliance with specifications, instead of relying solely on the L-1 (cheapest quote) criteria.

Concurrently, the CNS should have visited all three of the IN’s operational commands and communicated directly with their command hierarchies & warships COs & he should have sought their views & suggestions without any fear of recriminations & purges. He should also have explained the following:

1) All the problems being faced during his tenure as CNS were ‘inherited’ & were not his own creation & hence the need for securing feedback from his subordinates.

2) Previously adopted policy decisions of a questionable nature (like his predecessor Admiral Nirmal Verma succeeding in convincing the RM about disregarding submariners & aviators for the post of CNS) were aberrations that would not be repeated.

3) The IN would be realistic in its capability assessments & not make tall claims (like Admiral Nirmal Verma’s assertion in December 2011 that the Arihant SSBN will proceed on operational deterrent patrols by 2012 & his assertion since 2010 that the IN is perfectly capable of providing both coastal & maritime security).

4) Nepotism & cryonism (like promoting NAs) will not be tolerated.

5) Lastly, if all of the above were not implementable & were not supported in totality by the RM & the MoD’s civilian bureaucracy, only then would he prefer to resign.

Had Admiral D K Joshi done all of the above, then he would have displayed true leadership qualities. But by choosing not to do so, he has let his country & his Navy down, since according to me, providing top-class leadership despite adverse odds & temporary setbacks is a far more honourable option than taking a high moral ground that only serves one’s own short-term objectives while causing enormous damage to long-term institutional objectives.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Have added to the narrative above, this being the issue of Su-30MKI's serviceability problems.

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
"what we have developed is a gun that has been proven to operate in 52 degrees of temperature in Pokhran,” according to Jayant D Patil, Executive Vice President-Defence and Aerospace, Larsen & Toubro, said."
What is this gun Prasun Da?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUVO: The Caesar MGS. Developed by NEXTER Systems, not L & T.

Daedalus said...

One more of your prediction came true "Italian judge rejects Indian bid to recover helicopter deal guarantees"
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/finmeccanica-india-idINL6N0ME40520140317

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

Do you think something new is expected from these revelations

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Secret-report-on-India-China-war-in-1962-made-public/articleshow/32225588.cms


this person squarely blames then
PM Nehru for the failures as against Krishna Menon you have repeatedly said about.

BTw a very good news for India i believe, Crimea voted for independence from Ukraine and merge with Russia. But the US and EU rejected the vote.

This basically also means that now they can never raise a voice for plebiscite or referendum on Kashmir

BTW the missing B777 is being said to have flown below radar level on a radar black hole. another surprising thing is why no passenger ever was able to figure out what was happening, since the total flight time is about 6 hrs and the jet after flying 1 hr made a u turn and supposedly flew another 7 hrs, this means it just went bone dry and fell from the sky somewhere south of India point. Can this be possible

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

joydeep ghosh said...

as you had correctly predicted

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/italy-judge-rejects-india-bid-to-recover-agustawestland-guarantees-496745?pfrom=home-otherstories

looks like a basket full of eggs about to fall on the current RM

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DAEDALUS & JOYDEEP GHOSH: It was a prediction based on legal precedence: once both parties agree on arbitration for dispute resolution, then neither party can change the status quo until the arbitration process is completed. But the MoD has already broken this law by encashing through arm-twisting only those bank guarantees that were raised with the State Bank of India. But such monkeying won’t work at all with banks not headquartered in India, which is exactly what has happened. Looks like the Govt of India’s AG & Solicitor-General have screwed up yet again by mis-informing A K Antony about the consequences of prematurely terminating a contract.

Ranjit said...

Prasun,

By the time, the scorpene subs will be inducted in the Indian Navy,

Will they be obsolete by international standards as the Hindu claims?

Pierre Zorin said...

Thanks Prasun. I know very little about aircrafts - well anything technical so just dropped some rubbish in the think tank! Thanks for the links . Whilst Malaysian Politicians may not match their Indian counterparts in spin doctoring, nonetheless they are politicians and tarred by the same brush. There is absolutely no doubt they are being economical with the truth and once again blaming others than their own inefficiency or reluctance. Chinese should know because they are masters of censorship so when they are frustrated with Malaysia well you know it is true. It would not be surprising if the remains of the aircraft is found closer to the Malayan shores.

Bhaswar said...

Prasun da,

I'm guessing that the real disaster will take place if the components on the scorpene also came to be selected on the L1 criteria rather than QC/QR compliance. If the new build subs start catching fire then we can all kiss the "India will be a great power" dreams goodbye. The pathetic state of our inhouse MRO and stocking of spares, the inability to even draw up a half decent strategic vision nay the absolute refusal to do so, hell we can't even seem to draw up proper contracts and ask our own agencies to do what we need them to do- all of this points to a collective self defeating personality disorder. Well either that or such sheer stupidity that we should do the world a favor, let our diaspora flourish while we the denizens of the native land collectively commit ritual suicide so as to spare the human gene pool.

I have always been a strong believer in the notion that the masses of the subcontinent have a collective congenital defect when it comes to strategy, provisioning and forecasting. Sucks to be right in this case.

Let us leave the particulars of the solution aside for a moment. Given our stellar history wrt NOT leaning from our own inane and foolish actions, do you see anyone on the horizon who you can safely see is likley to undertake the measures you've outlined?

Vikrant said...

Sir,
Well it seems that us Indians do have an extremely stellar record in stupidity and myopia when it comes to defence,the thread along with the Henderson brooks report being made public,well you reap what you sow.
1)How would you rate Brig.Dalvi's book "himalayan blunder'.Trying to know as much details as possible regarding 1962?
2)How would you rate the rajput class DDGs,are they serving way beyond their retirement date.They are soviet kashin class vintage vessels?
3)Do you see even a remote chance decent man at the helm of MoD in case of the expected Modi win?
4)Shouldn't the ITBP come under the jurisdiction of IA for better border patrolling?
5)Well putin has actually sealed crimea's fate but what about other areas in eastern
Ukraine where pro-russia protests are happening even as I type?

abs said...

@Prasunda
Very Many Thanks indeed for such lucid and revealing informations.
I had come across a Raghuram Rajan committee report on Financial Sector Reforms, the heading was '100 Small Steps to El Dorado', just reminded me how such small and simple steps such as these can heal much of the malaise prevalent in the Administrative and Operational spheres dealing with our armed forces!! Thanks again!!

Ex Intelligence said...

INDIA has gone to the dogs . Indians should ideally migrate to another country or pray that a benevolent colonial power takes it over once again .

Mr. RA 13 said...

All types of shortcomings are getting aggravated more and more. Can it be due to the ever increasing use of the digital thinking over the analog thinking.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Nothing new has been revealed from the publication of this report. There is still a lot more to be revealed—something of a far more darker & sinister nature, which an outsider will never be able to fathom. And that concerns the fissures existing at that time within the Indian Army. In my several off-the-record conversations with both the late Bhola Nath Mullick & K Sankaran Nair as well as a few ex-COAS of the IA between 1984 & 1987, what emerged was the following:

1) Decision-makers like Nehru & Krishna Menon, instead of indulging in what they were paid to do, i.e. macro-management, instead began micro-managing institutions like the MoD & armed services HQs.

2) Nehru & Krishna Menon never paid heed to creating cohesive institutions. For instance, till 1962 there was a practice that effectively promoted a class system within the commissioned officer cadres of the armed services. Under this scheme, all officers who were recruited during the time of the British raj were officially labeled as KCIO or King’s Commissioned Indian Officers & were entitled to privileges like an annual all-expenses paid leave in the UK. This privilege was promoted by the likes of Gen Cariappa & those who became officers after passing out from Indian training establishments were denied such privileges. This caused enormous divide & resentment within the armed forces.

3) Matters were worsened when Nehru personally began favouring the likes of Lt Gen B M Kaul who had no field experience whatsoever & was therefore totally unfit for commanding even an infantry platoon. This was the birth of nepotism & cronyism within the armed forces & Nehru sowed their seeds. Prior to hostilities, the officer cadre of the IA was popularly divided along two lines: Kaul’s Boys & Manekshaw’s Boys. Had the 1962 war not been thrust upon India’s shoulders, nepotism & cronyism would only have spread their tentacles much further & deeper & the IA would in all probability have ended up in the same state as the Pakistan Army. But thanks to Chairman Mao, war broke out & one of its consequences was a thorough cleansing of the malpractices of the Nehru/Krishna Menon era. We all can only thank God for that!

Cont’d below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

What’s happened in Crimea is only a referendum. Russia has not yet formally annexed it nor has the province applied for membership to the UN as a sovereign country. Therefore, what’s happening now is just a chessgame, with Russia upping the ante in its bid to prevent at all costs the eastward expansion of NATO. Calls for plebiscite in J & K can still be raised since the UNSC resolution to that effect is still in place & has not been discarded or withdrawn by the UNSC. However, even if a plebiscite were to be conducted in POK today, more than 78% would vote in favour of accession to India, albeit with a greater degree of regional autonomy but still remaining within the ambit of India’s Constitution. The Shias of Gilgit-Baltistan have been slaughtered enough by Pakistanis & they have also been dehumanised over the past five decades because they are still stateless by status & thus they do not enjoy any rights & privileges that other Pakistanis enjoy. Consequently, only a fool will continue to clamour for either maintenance of the existing status quo or accession to Pakistan. That’s the hard reality & that’s precisely why Mian Mohd Nawaz Sharif has a large number of Kashmiri-origin politicians, who also double up as his chamchas) in his federal cabinet (in order to pacify & mollify the Kashmiris of POK. But this too isn’t working to Pakistan’s advantage, it seems. And that’s because the average Pakistani politician has a strict feudal mindset like a Zamindaar/Jahgirdaar & is totally against devolution of power & creation of new provinces. This, then only means that POK has no ray of hope to be treated on par with Pakistan’s four other provinces & POK’s indigenous inhabitants will therefore have to remain stateless & devoid of constitutionally-guarantees rights—something they’re no longer willing to accept. So, just wait till 2016 for this whole issue to unravel & hopefully with a little help from Afghanistan, India will by then succeed in having a common land border with both Afghanistan & Tajikistan.

Regarding MH-370, do read this:

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/disturbing-scenarios-on-mh370/article5797358.ece?homepage=true&ref=relatedNews

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RANJIT: Who’s the moron who has made such claims? Can you kindly provide the weblink to such a spectacularly outrageous claim?

To PIERRE ZORIN: My only humble request to the Malaysian authorities is to display the same degree of alacrity as they traditionally show whenever they have to collect semen samples from a bedsheet or mattress for the sake of implicating some opposition politicians on charges of sodomy (LoLzz)!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BHASWAR: O yaar, why are you jumping to such dire conclusions? Do chill out & have a Guinness Stout while I offer a more plausible explanation: Selection of India-based vendors for manufacturing sub-structures, sub-systems & components for the Scorpene SSK was never based on the L-1 criteria at all, since the vendor selection was an internal matter for DCNS & was therefore not subject to DPP-mandated regulations/procedures. The MoD’s role in all this ended with the appointment of MDL as the prime Indian contractor & beyond that, MDL just outsourced everything (skills, hardware, services, etc) to DCNS. Consequently, whatever DCNS decides regarding India-based vendor-selection is final & unquestioned. Therefore, since DCNS does not want to tarnish its corporate/professional image, it will not compromise on its industrial QC/QA standards & this is why it rejected several batches of sub-standard India-produced items until the Indian vendors finally got it right. After all, even though MDL is licence-building the Scorpenes, final product liability/product warranty responsibility still lies with DCNS. Consequently, all six Scorpene SSKs will be delivered to the IN & will be maintained by MDL without any QA/QC lapses, just as the four Class 209/Type 1500 SSKs have been complaint-free since the 1980s. The problems you’ve alluded to plague the fleet of Type 877EKM SSKs simply because since the time of their acquisition in the 1980s, neither the MoD-owned shipyards nor the Naval Dockyard at Vizag acquired the expertise from the Russian OEMs that was reqd for undertaking medium- & long-refits—which is extremely surprising. This should have been acquired by the year 2000 itself from Rosoboronexport State Corp & SUDOEXPORT FSUE. Had this been done, then by now there would have been several Russia-based OEM-approved/licenced/certified vendors that could have supplied sub-structures, sub-systems & components of reliable QC/QA standards & freakish accidents like the one on board INS Sindhuratna would never have taken place.

Cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Now, WRT the existence of congenital defects, all I can say is that I’m absolutely aghast at the sheer extinction of only one intellectual virtue: COMMON SENSE. You would have noted by now that all the examples I’ve given above in the narrative relate to only one issue: inability to apply common sense from one’s mind. How else does one explain the fact that despite the IAF & IN operating Russia-origin helicopters like the Mi-17 & Ka-28 in such large numbers & both of which use identical engines & gearboxes, HAL or the MoD since the 1980s never even thought about setting up certified MRO facilities for such engines & gearboxes. Such a MRO facility, if set up, would have been a guaranteed money-spinner since it would have catered for not only India-based Mi-17s, Ka-28s & Ka-32s, but also for several tens of those operating in Nepal, Myanmar & Sri Lanka.

Finally, WRT to the emergence of visionary & decisive leadership in India, like how Kamal Ataturk emerged from the ashes of the vanquished Turkish Sultanate early in the previous century, well, miracles are possible. But I for one will be satisfied with someone who can bring together a team of professionals who can: 1) deliver whatever’s been promised, & 2) communicate with the masses frequently & frankly, instead of leading a robotic existence & reading pre-scripted notations only on the eve of January 26 & August 15 each year. Failure of Dr MMS to do so since 2004 in this day & age only portrayed him as someone lacking in self-confidence & this in turn has steadily morphed into a collective sense of despondency at the national-level among the younger-generation aspirational masses who have nowhere else to turn to & therefore in sheer frustration they’ve latched on to rudderless utopians like the AAP.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRANT: 1) One indeed reaps what one sows & all actions always have consequences.

2) Prior to reading ‘Himalayan Blunder’, one must read ‘The Defence of India’ by Raju G C Thomas, which describes in great detail the defence policy planning processes in the Nehruvian era & their deficiencies at both institutional & administrative levels. Then there’s ‘Self-Deception: India’s China Policies’ by Arun Shourie. Only after you’ve read all this & grasped the strategic/macro-level background, can one then graduate on to the tactical accounts of the war, such as ‘Himalayan Blunder’.

3) Going by the 35-year TTSL of Soviet-/Russia-design warships, the Project 61ME-class DDGs should begin being decommissioned from this year.

4) Decent man at the helm of the MoD? What good would that do? Decisions on national security are always made by the holy trinity comprising the PM, Union MoF & the RM. Only after the PM lays down the over-arching macro-level guidelines after consulting his/her National Security Adviser & the three armed services chiefs will the guidelines be articulated into a firm policy-cum-force modernisation plan whose milestones will be prioritised by the Cabinet Committee on National Security PROVIDED the Union MoF guarantees ZERO fiscal disruptions for the annual five-year defence plan. Only then can hardware procurements & MRO activities be undertaken according to uncompromising schedules. Bottomline: it’s all about money. As long as the PM & Union MoF are united in adhering to ZERO fiscal disruptions for the annual five-year defence plan, the MoD & its RM will have nothing to worry about. Only then will the promised value-added services be delivered by both the armed forces & the country’s indigenous military-industrial complexes.

5) ITBP is a CAPF. It’s role therefore is border management, not border domination. Consequently, it cannot be deployed anywhere where there’s no defined, demarcated, delineated border & only a notional LAC exists. In such areas, border domination is of the essence & only the IA can do this. ITBP & BSF can therefore only be deployed against the International Boundaries facing Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh & Myanmar. The day the LAC becomes a legally-binding permament international boundary, the ITBP will be deployed along the LAC for border management activities.

6) It’s only a referendum & no one has as yet applied for membership to the UN as a new sovereign state. The game is therefore far from over. India should meanwhile worry about whether her official foreign policy stance regarding Crimea will in any way affect the on-going SLEP of the IAF’s An-32B transports & the delivery by Ukraine’s Motor Sich JSC of VK-2500 engines for the IAF’s Mi-17V-5—something the ‘desi’ journalists haven’t yet been able to grasp so far (why doesn’t that surprise me at all!!!).

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABS: VMT. Might I just add that in addition to taking small & simple steps, one has also to concurrently apply ‘common-sense’ every now & then. LoLzzz!

To EX-INTELLIGENCE: If India has indeed gone to the dogs, then why should anyone even contemplate accumulating such a gigantic liability & making a colossal loss in every manner??? History teaches us that there has never been any benevolent colonial power. All colonial powers always eyed India only when everything was in order & flourishing & hostile takeovers by foreigners were launched only when the indigenous ruling class became terribly decadent due to an over-supply of wealth & riches.

To Mr.RA 13: It is only due to the abandonment on that God-virtue of ‘common-sense’. Hence the country has been classified as a ‘Refusing-to-Develop-Country’. There’s just no other rational explanation, I’m afraid.

Ranjit said...

Prasunda,

This is the article in the "Hindu" which claims that by the time scorpene's are inducted, they would be obsolete.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/scorpene-sub-delayed-by-one-more-year/article4942060.ece

Have a look.

Anonymous said...

Hope its not true and that MH370 flew over Indian airspace shadowing a Singapore Airlines 777, flying from Singapore to Europe.

http://mh370shadow.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

joydeep ghosh said...

'So, just wait till 2016 for this whole issue to unravel & hopefully with a little help from Afghanistan, India will by then succeed in having a common land border with both Afghanistan & Tajikistan.' but that route will have to go through China controlled Saksgam valley, how will that be possible

also looks like a very good news, seems all your predictions are coming rightt on the spot
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/new-delhi-eyes-local-production-of-pc-7-basic-trainer-397159/

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

bipi@342 said...

http://www.swechha.in/

this is org which is saying its supporting frees software movement my company want to associate with this,i want to know is there any information you have about this org.

Iceman said...

sir,
1.How many T-90's does india have and how many more will be procured in future?
2.is it possible to develop a military variant of AW609?
3.will ins arihant be part of vikramaditya's CBG?
4.do you have any idea when the akash mk2 will be tested?
5.regarding indian army's VSHORADS deal are there any progress?
6.what is the status of SR-SAM deal?

Ex Intelligence said...

Prasun ,

They are accumulating these gigantic liabilities with the sole intention of making losses . The system collapsed a long time ago and a few players now are basically scavengers . It's not without reason that millions of Indians seek to migrate to the West every year . The US issues more visas to Indians than any other country . Not to mention the thousands of others who migrate out of India illegally .

Infact come to think about it . The only time India looks good is when it is compared with banana republics like Pakistan . India is a living tragedy of self delusion.

So don't get emotionally wound-up about my remarks, for they do represent the truth, which is ugly & bitter. India has gone to the dogs & you can take this to the bank .

Anonymous said...

Prasun da,

i am surprised by the fact that there is actually switches for the transponders for civilian flights. Why is it actually there when a civilian flight is not supposed to take a stealthy flight profile. Especially when the civilian flights are heavily monitored, keeping a switch for such vital function is beyond my logic.

Sreenivas R

Anup said...

Dear Sir,

Any update on HAL LCA Navy & HAL LCH
or both are hanger queen ??

prateek said...

sir ,
1)I am very much interested in reading the henderson-brooks report..
can you please tell me where i can read it online.
2) what do you think are bjp's chances of coming to power..how many seats do you think they'll win anything near 272 ??
3) do you beleive this aam aadmi party to be planted/established by congress..do you think they are congress stooge??
4) can it happen that all these parties team up againt NAMO..they'll not let him BECOME THE PM..they hate him.
5) what your view of AAP.. how much damage do you think they cn do to the NAMO campaign..even BJP's internal fighting is not good.
6) how much do you think the ruppe can rise against dollar..do you think it can reach 40-50 anytime in 2-3 years??

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RANJIT: By implication, that would also mean that by 2016 all existing diesel-electric SSKs worldwide without AIP would be obsolete as well! A spectacularly outrageous conclusion ineed!!!

To Anon@11.57AM: It definitely did not, & instead headed south towards the Indian Ocean near Christmas Island,

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Well, Pakistanis are magnificently self deluded, as revealed here:

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-29018-Do-we-know-whats-going-on-among-Islamic-brotherly-states

The RFIs issued by the IAF can be viewed here:

BTT: http://tenders.gov.in/viewtenddoc.asp?tid=del646537&wno=1&td=TD

IJT: http://tenders.gov.in/viewtenddoc.asp?tid=del642020&wno=1&td=TD

By the way, as you’ve rightly stated, I had proposed last January that the MoD should invite through a restricted tender only India-based firms for bidding for the licenced-assembly of the IAF's remaining reqmts for PC-7 Mk2s & the selected firm should also be contracted for providing through-life-product-support for the entire fleet of PC-7 Mk2s.

With regard to the PC-7 Mk2 BTT’s licenced-assembly RFI, the MoD will process applications from various Indian aviation-manufacturing firms & select the most suitable one & the selected party will then form an industrial partnership (not a corporate JV) with Pilatus Aircraft of Switzerland similar to the one existing between HAL and Russia’s IRKUT Corp for the Su-30MKI procurement programme. Pilatus will then supply the PC-7 Mk2 in fully knocked-down condition to the Indian party for final assembly. And contrary to what has been speculated elsewhere, the licence-assembled aircraft will not require any separate flight certification from military airworthiness authorities since the aircraft has already been certified by Swiss airworthiness authorities. Indigenous content on such licence-built PC-7 Mk2s will be limited to only the rotables & consumables such as lubricants, additives, oil-filters, air-filters, and tyres, & perhaps some wiring harnesses. The rest of the aircraft, comprising the airframe, P & WC engine, hydraulics, accessories, instrumentation & fitments, will all be imported for final licenced-assembly in India.

The RFI for IJT is quite bizarre. For starters, it would mean that the IAF is now in the market for a new-design IJT, meaning the HAL-developed HJT-36 does not inspire any confidence and consequently, that project is a writeoff for the IAF and is a total financial loss as far as the Indian exchequer goes. In any case, I confirmed during DEFEXPO 2014 with NPO Saturn that the HJT-36’s AL-55I turbofan has a total technical service life of only 500 hours, which is unthinkable and totally unacceptable in the 21st century as it will make the HJT-36 the world’s most expensive IJT in terms of per-hour direct operating costs! But the biggest question is this: why does the IAF continue to cling on to an outdated flying training syllabus (that makes use of BTT, IJT & AJT) when all over the world almost everyone has adopted the BTT + AJT + lead-in fighter-trainer (LIFT) concept? For the LIFT requirement, the existing tandem-seat version of the Tejas Mk1 is the optimum candidate.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ICEMAN: 1) About 700. About 600 more to go. 2) Not worthwhile due to its limited interior volume. 3) Too early to come to such a conclusion. 4) Nope. 5) Nope. 6) In limbo.

To EX-INTELLIGENCE: It wasn’t me that got emotionally wound up, but it was you when you remarked that ‘India has gone to the dogs’. As for the millions of India who wish to migrate to other countries each year, they’re only catering to the supply-and-demand situation. If the US issues more visas to Indians than any other country, it only means that India-produced human resources are in demand. Countries like Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon & Afghanistan are basket cases, i.e. default states, which India definitely isn’t whichever way you looks at things. One can definitely say that India is a refusing-to-develop-country, but that still is a far far far better status when compared to basket-cases like some of India’s immediate neighbours.

To SREENIVAS R. Such switches exists so that the cockpit crew can manually change frequencies during emergencies, for transponders too may malfunction at times & may be subject to atmospheric interferences, & operating frequencies therefore need to be changed.

To ANUP: 1) No spectacular updates as such. By July, hopefully there will be some good news.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRATEEK: 1) Google for it. It’s at the website of IDR.com 2) The BJP has set its own realistic target of 272, which bodes well as it does not want to have the cake & east it as well. Perhaps that’s why there is a worldwide conspiracy that wants to get the BJP into power. First the leaking of the OP SUNDOWN-related correspondence from the UK’s Foreign Office & now Neville Maxwell’s partial leakage of the Henderson Brooks report. This is what’s known as ‘regime change’ through subtle pin-pricks. 3) AAP is a total washout & a very cruel joke on the aam aadmi of Bharat Varsh. 4 & 5) They can’t. The younger generation of aspirational Indians can’t be taken for a ride anymore by either the UPA or AAP or any other regional party. The AAP’s support-base is only a bunch of guilty upper middle-class yuppies & students brainwashed by leftist utopia. It is quite stylish in urban areas to have such bleeding liberalistic sentiments till the time when one attains the age of 30, & then realism takes over. 6) It better not, since it will make India’s exports more expensive.

By the way, do see & hear this outrageous cock-n-bull story at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GB7OlhioRBM

The moron does not even realise that mission computers have nothing to do with flying the aircraft. That’s the job of the flight control computer & air-data computer. Consequently, if the mission computer fails in mid-flight, only the mission sortie is aborted & the aircrew can safely return back to their air base using either VFR or IFR flight-rules by day & night, as necessary. This is because, as seen above in the photo showing the tandem cockpits of the Su-30MKI, there are no less than 7 different standby electro-mechanical instruments like the attitude & heading indicators, speedometer, radar altimeter, fuel capacity indicator, engine RPM indicator & oil-pressure indicator, all of which are fitted precisely as back-ups in case there’s catastrophic avionics failure. Therefore, the question of the aircraft crashing due to such catastrophic failures does not even arise.

I’ve already written to the Press Council of India urging it to take strict disciplinary action against this news-channel, which, through such erroneous reportage, is only misleading its audience & making ill-conceived value judgements against the IAF.

Pierre Zorin said...

Prasun do you think India refused to extend its search obligations due to financial constraints or is it Malaysia, Australia and the US are giving the Indian Navy a snub because only India has 2 P8I aircraft outside the US and from the southern tip of India it is do-able isn't it?

rad said...

Hi Prasun
coming to avionics failure and back up. Grp capt Perumal , shuarya chakra was from my town,he told me that during the kargil war that after he got hit by a stinger missile , flying recce on a cnaberra experianced total loss of avionics he had to be guided by a mig-29 back to base .I asked him whether a standby gps unit was there and he laughed. Such is the state of affairs .They could not give our pilots a 300$ GPs! Subsequently he got himself a handy gps unit. to get back home in case!!!

F said...

Prasun,

Do you know which companies supplied ATC radars to the RMAF and DCA?

How are Malaysian and Singaporeans radars linked real time to HQIADS? Is it via a data link or other means?

Does the CO of HQIADS have the authority to scramble jets?

Apart from being used to monitor and provide instructions for aircraft and having a shorter range, how do ATC radars differ from dedicated surveillance radars?

Doe the Martello, RAT, Groundmaster and HADR [not sure if still operational] all have secondary surveillance antenna?

Is there any truth to the reports that the IAF radars watching the Andamans area were shut down at the time that MH370 was alleged to have flown past?

DAshu said...

sir tell me frankly did you really expected that "shiv" fella to know what is the difference between mission computer and flight control computer and what they are for . :)

Ex Intelligence said...

Prasun ,

(1) So , what you are saying is that in a country where the Parliament forms a state inspite of the fact that the motion was defeated in that state's Assembly is not a basket case ?

(2) Design for warships are never frozen and thousand of fixes are brought about till the eleventh hour because various foreign vendors in concert with MoF calls the shot .

(3) Most of the country's defense related secrets have been compromised by Military officers whose kids are studying in Western institutions .

(4) Shtil & C 17 were purchased not because they were the best systems around but because of political pressure .

The list is long .

Re migration of Indians , a significant number of them migrate to US, UK , Europe , Canada illegally & not because they have outstanding skill set. They are just tired with a failed state like India . Feat your eyes on this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-YJEDxJE8g

Bottomline is a "basket case" and a "refusing to develop country" are two sides of the same coin .

Iceman said...

1.will Indian army adopt Digital camo in its uniform in future?even pakistan has semi digital camo.
2.when will the CLGM be ready as the
induction of Arjun mk2 is getting delayed due to LAHAT missile?
3.does India has the plan of building any underground air bases?
4.can kestrel be fitted with ofb 30mm cannon?
5.any updates on Helina missile?
6.Why is there a delay in testing Nirbhay missile as it was supposed to be tested by February?
7.how many Dhruv mk3 has been delivered to the armed forces?

Vikrant said...

Sir,
After reading the thread one wonders what sort of morons(no better word for it)are our defense journalists.
Well as usual a few questions.
1)How would you rate the current DDG fleet of the navy and what are the primary roles for each in class in IN.
2)How big is the delay with regards to INS Kolkata.
3)Something I came across from the same media group.Btw Thj echinese Shang and Han class arent renowned for their silence are they?

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indian-navy-chinese-nuclear-sub-indian-ocean/1/350498.html

manoj joshi said...

Military attaches in Beijing were called in and told that China would be sending a submarine to the Indian Ocean. This was in itself remarkable since countries don't announce patrols of nuclear subs. There was a report that this surfaced near Somalia, but I have not been able to confirm that.

Sujoy Majumdar said...

Prasun Da ,

A UK nuclear submarines is refused entry by UAE so it gets a dock in GOA . Any particular reason for this ?
I mean it could have docked in Saudi Arabia , Qatar or some Gulf countries ?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-devon-26526574

Thanks,
Sujoy

Anonymous said...

@Prasunda
Read a few very interesting pieces would like to have your views on this
1)Was in twitter where a Muslim guy was clamouring for 'Hindu Rashtra's concept of secularism for India.
What is your view? Is Veer Savarkar's manifesto of a Hindu Rashtra still prevalent today?
2)I read an interesting comment somewhere, who said 'India is a Cultural Economy unlike a culture based on Economy, due to which only a Right Wing dispensation could make India what it aspires to be'. Your thoughts?
3)Also read somewhere that Hinduism has been inherently Socialistic in nature, which is why Socialism has thrived for so long in India. Your assessment?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MANOJ JOSHI & VIKRANT: Since this was a symbolic maiden deployment of a PLAN-owned SSN to the IOR, the PLAN took Russia, the US and Indonesia into confidence for the onward journey, & the SSN stopped by at Seychelles to pick up perishables for replenishment. India and Singapore were informed because for the return voyage the SSN used the Malacca & Singapore Straits for transit. I’ve uploaded the voyage maps above. What is surprising is why the SSN avoided taking the Sunda or Lombok Straits for entering the Indian Ocean, and why were Malaysia and Sri Lanka not informed about this voyage.

Anonymous said...

^^ The above comment was of mine
Abs

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: What ever makes you think along those lines (LoLz!)? The IAF & IN components of the SAR operations were suspended BECAUSE they were told by Malaysia to wait for new SAR coordinates 72 hours ago. 48 hours ago, when those coordinates were supplied by Malaysia, both the IAF and IN immediately finalised their respective flight-plans & as a result, a P-8I & a C-130J arrived yesterday evening at TUDM Subang air base & from daybreak tomorrow they will commence their airborne SAR operations. The IN’s P-8I can cover a far greater footprint than the US Navy’s P-8A or any other MP/ASW aircraft since the P-8I has TWO airborne radars on board—Raytheon’s nose-mounted multi-mode search radar & Telephonics’s APS-143 aft-mounted search radar. But for covering a greater swathe of the vast area, the IN’s P-8I & C-130J will be better utilised if they were to operate out of Indonesia’s Sumatra island, instead of peninsular Malaysia. Let’s therefore wait & see whether or not Indonesia agress to such an arrangement.

To RAD: The shoulder-launched FIM-92 Stinger had in fact damaged the IAF Canberra’s cockpit instrumentation’s wiring, due to which there was total failure of all standby instrumentation (there were no avionics on board). A handheld GPS from Garmin or Magellan would have helped a lot, but it wasn’t provided to IAF or OA aircrews at that time. Only after that were all IAF & IA SA.315B Lama/Cheetah & SA.316B Alouette-3/Chetaks subsequently equipped with handheld GPS receivers that can even display navigation maps/routes. So yes, matters were quite bad in 1999, but they have already been rectified since. You should also ask the Grp Capt why was the Canberra used for photo-recce in the very first place, when Jaguar IS equipped with Vinten-built VICON-78 photo-recce pods were available for tactical recce purposes. I’m sure he will give you a very interesting answer.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FARIS: Alamak! You always force me to take long walks down memory lanes (LoLz)!

1) For the DCA, the ATC radars first came from THALES (similar to the ones supplied in the 1980s to Australia & NZ) & later from Alenia (now Selex Sistemi Integrati). For the TUDM/RMAF, the ATC radars & terminal approach were supplied by ITT Defense & Selex Galileo (formerly FIAR).

2) Military radars of Malaysia & Singapore are not linked to HQ IADS at TUDM/RMAF Butterworth. Instead, it is the military ATC networks of the TUDM/RMAF & RSAF that are linked by fibre-optic cable to the ADIZ surveillance system located at Butterworth & that too only for Singapore & peninsular Malaysia. In addition, for southern peninsular Malaysia’s military air traffic management, there’s a joint ATC centre located at Changi International.

3) HQ IADS cannot scramble any combat aircraft simply because he does not have any operational control over such assets, since the combat aircraft based in TUDM/RMAF Butterworth are RMAF assets. Consequently, only the Operations Directorate of TUDM/RMAF has this authority & until he gives the green light to the Base Commander of TUDM/RMAF Butterworth, no combat aircraft can get airborne from that air base. The highest-ranking RAAF officer in that air base can only authorise the flight-plans of those P-3Cs from Australia & NZ that are on rotational deployment throughout the year from TUDM/RMAF Butterworth.

cont'd below

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

4) ATC radars are used for air-traffic control/management within designated flight information regions (FIR). Airspace surveillance radars like S-743 Martello, RAT-31SL & RAT-31DL & Ground Master are employed primarily for enforcing the sanctity of air defence identification zones (ADIZ). FIRs are reqd to be operational all 365 days a year, whereas ADIZs are activated ONLY WHEN there’s either a national emergency (like war) or when an immediate neighbouring is conducting military air exercises due to which there may be deliberate or unintended airspace violations. In some cases over mountainous terrain, where terrain-masking can easily be resorted to, low-power gapfiller radars (tactical air-defence radars) are kept operational for greater periods of time but again only when weather conditions permit flight activities to take place.

5) Military airspace surveillance radars don’t require secondary surveillance antennae. They have only two antennae: for primary surveillance & for IFF. Secondary surveillance for any air force is conducted by its ATC radar network. Only for civilian ATC radars there are 3 antenna (primary, secondary & IFF) for the sake of flight safety-related redundancy.

6) Which IAF radars are you referring to? There are only 2 of them for ATC purposes for that FIR & they’re operational only when flight movements are undertaken during daytime. Only in airports/air bases where there are round-the-clock flight movements (takeoffs & landings) are the ATC radars kept operational for up to 22 hours each day. As for military radars in the Andaman & Nicobar, they become operational only during routine air exercises, just like in any other country. MH-370 NEVER flew past these islands. Instead, it adopted a south-by-southwest flight-path while cruising over the southern portion of the Andaman Sea headed for Banda Aceh & thence further southwards. I had deduced this & had stated this a few days ago even before the RTAF had revealed its radar-tracks.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: The very least I expected from that ‘fella’ was to get his facts right by consulting a competent authority from the IAF or a retired senior IAF official, instead of just blurting out on a national TV network all kinds of speculative/erroneous gobbledygook of the kind that only serves to confuse an undiscerning audience. Now that same ‘fella’ has uploaded further nonsense supplied by some other egghead at:

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2014/03/mh370-switched-off-radars-security.html

Little does this egghead realise that the THALES-built THD-1955 is not strictly an airspace surveillance radar meant for enforcing an ADIZ, but an ATC radar & that too which is used for providing ATM services in a designated FIR & that too ONLY WHEN there are flight movements over the A & N island-chain. And the THD-1955s are now being progressively replaced by Selex Sistemi Integrati-built & BEL-assembled ATCR-33-S and Sir-S primary/secondary surveillance radars. Then the egghead makes yet another blunder by claiming that: “After all, the IAF did manage to detect and track the Pakistan Navy Atlantique that came close to entering Indian airspace in 1999, and scramble fighters in time to intercept it.” In reality, the PN-owned Atlantique MP/ASW aircraft’s navigator had genuinely committed a navigational blunder & DID ENTER India’s airspace & this was first detected by the IAF’s ATC radars (since the Atlantique was never flying at a low-level, leave alone terrain-hugging, meaning it never wanted to hide its flight-path because the PN aircrew was simply unware that their aircraft had strayed into India’s airspace due to inflight navigational error). The aircraft was subsequently shot down by the IAF when it refused to obey the IAF’s instructions to land at an IAF air base.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To EX-INTELLIGENCE: Again, your ‘justifications’ are nothing but mere oversimplifications. 1) Almost all Indian states came into being like that. Maharashtra & Gujarat, Tamil Nadu & Andhra Pradesh were all created in such a manner. Any existing state assembly will always & surely want to preserve the existing status quo. That doesn’t mean the majority’s views have been heeded. 2) That’s the wrong reason why warship designs are frozen so late. The real reason is the untimely arrival of sub-systems & that too for only the first-of-type vessels—something that happens in countries like ROK & Japan as well. Follow-on vessels of the same design have always been delivered at 1-year intervals. 3) Again, mere speculation with substantiation. 4) Again, mere supposition.

Regarding migration, if indeed several million Indians have migrated illegally, then there should be a reverse-flow of these Indians as well, since the developed countries have all the available means at their disposal to detect & deport such illegals. Has such a deportation exodus taken place so far? If so, then can you list out the figures of such deportations? By calling India a failed state, it means you haven’t yet set foot on a genuinely failed state. Try surviving in Nepal, or Pakistan, or Syria, or Lebanon or Haiti for even a week & then you’ll realise what a failed state really is all about.

To ICEMAN: 1) It has already happened. 2) By 2016. 3) Yes. 4) Yes. But what for? OFB’s 30mm cannon isn’t a RCWS. 5) None. 6) DRDO’s HR assets are busy elsewhere with some other missile-related projects. 7) Almost 60 so far.

To VIKRANT: 1) IN has only 44% of its DDG reqmts as of now. Primary/secondary roles are the same for all of them since they’re all general-purpose designs. 2) 6 year-delay for INS Kolkata.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Most likely unavailability of suitable berthing facilities.

Pierre Zorin said...

I can almost guarantee that Ex Intelligence is none other than Raw13 whoever that is. Once an idea gets in the psyche subconsciously people adopt associated handles and hence it is quite obvious.For example someone thought about and chose a handle, Planelover; you'd see associated handles subsequently relating to that such as Airbus99 or Flightmaster or Traveller etc etc. Regarding that Shiv Aroor - I will never forget when Prasun went missing like the MH370 from his old blog and I kept asking if anyone knew where he was,Shiv posted a comment saying he was arrested by Chennai Police for an act of sodomy (well not exactly the same words but more vulgar). Now I know why he said that parodying Anwar Ibrahim's case and Prasun's association with Malaysia. He is like the guy who once told a friend of mine, "My strongest point is my humility "!! Thank you for the answer Prasun, I just read it too. Is the French Antarctic Island uninhabitable? Looks the closest to the area of search.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABS: 1) The problem is two-fold: A) No one has defined what precisely constitutes ‘Hindu Rashtra’; & B) neither has anyone articulated what precisely is secularism & how it ought to be practiced. Let’s deal with them in detail:

‘Hindu Rashtra’ has several connotations, based on whether one is defining it in territorial or civilisational terms. In terms of the former, there’s nothing conclusive to prove its historicity (especially that of Bharat) & archaeological expeditions aided by remote-sensing technologies continue to throw up new surprises. For instance, the prevalence of the continental Kumari Kandam stretching from present-day Madagascar till continental Australia & hosting empires dedicated to the worship of both Vishnu & Shiva, & later due to the continental break-up, vestiges of such empires found their way north to what constitutes present-day India, while the eastern half of Kumari Kandam became what is today Sumatra & Java & right up to the 14th century this landmass hosted the Sri Vijaya kingdom & its components right up to Vietnam & Cambodia. The earliest recorded territorial boundaries of Bharat relate to the period during which Alexander of Macedonia had invaded both Persia & Bharat which in those days had included what is today’s Central Asia. Consequently, those who prefer over-simplification over logic tend to define ‘Hindu Rashtra’ in civilisational terms, i.e. the maximum territorial reaches of Vaishnavite & Shaivite sects. This then gets further diluted with the advent of the ‘Bhakti Cult’, i.e. worshippers of Krishna who are to be found primarily in Gujarat & thence stretching on eastwards on to the Indo-Gangetic Plain (primarily portions of MP, plus the whole of UP, Bihar & WB all the way out to Manipur. Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru too defined Bharat or India in civilisational terms through his book ‘My Discovery of India’ & this perhaps was the main reason why he ignored Sardar Vallabhai Patel’s pleas for securing India’s territorial frontiers soon after independence (China, on the other hand, was so territorial since ancient times that it built the Great Wall to protect itself from the invading Mongols!. Coming to present times, organisations like the RSS, VHP & Bajrang Dal have all chosen to opt for shortcuts & oversimplifications when it comes to defining ‘Hindu Rashtra’ & hence their over-emphasis on cult-based bigotry like cow worship & idol worship. Those who want to script a counter-narrative (myself included) prefer to place emphasis on Vedanta as being the essence of Hindutva & belatedly some of India’s intellectuals too have grasped this reality & hence the flourishing of organisations like the Vivekananda Foundation, & NaMo’s emphasis since the past 3 years on Swami Vivekananda (i.e. totally rejecting V R Savarkar’s oversimplistic 7 therefore ill-conceived notion of a Hindu Rashtra). Bottomline: first define the fundamental pillars of Hindutva at the intellectual & even theocratic levels & only then use them to define the essence of ‘Hindu Rashtra’, instead of blindly claiming that Ayodhya was Rama’s birthplace, because tomorrow the Thais will make a counter-claim that Rama was actually born in Ayutthya on the outskirts of present-day Bangkok!

Cont’d below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Coming now to secularism, its concept alone has been corrupted & ill-defined in India by subsequent decision-makers, starting from 1953 when Pandit Nehru insisted on passing the Hindu Code Bill instead of adopting a uniform civil code, i.e. embracing a level playing field for all citizens. By not doing do, Nehru automatically created a class divide. Over the years, this has further degenerated into caste & further class divides through the introduction of several quota systems & reservations. All this has happened because the Republic of India has repeatedly failed to provide the basic necessities (like universal health & hygiene facilities, education & food security) in an equitable manner. Essentially, secularism means the expeditious delivery of goods services by the state minus any discrimination—this being the foremost of many social contracts between the governing class & the governed citizens. Dr A P J Abdul Kalam was spot-on when he once remarked that just build enough educational institutions to ensure that there’s no supply-demand gap & the reservations/quota system will become totally useless.

2) That’s true, but this cannot be classified as being either right-wing or left-wing. Instead, it should be known as the ‘welfare state’ concept, which was practiced by the Likes of Asoka The Great, the Cholas & even the Vijayanagar empire. ‘Right’ & ‘Left’ are Western concepts of more recent origin & I dare say India’s history has far far better examples of the optimum variety of statecraft, civic administration, globalised commerce, etc. This point was made by M N Roy in one of the Comminterns in the early 1930s to explain why Communism will never gain a firm foothold in India. But Stalin at that time disagreed & consequently, M N Roy was expelled from the Commintern. Interestingly, the chap who founded the first Malay kingdom in Melaka (Malacca) in present-day peninsular Malaysia was called Parameshwara, who migrated by sea from Indonesia’s Riau archipelago (southeast of Singapore) & after becoming King, he embraced Islam & changed his name to Iskander. A century later, from the Malacca Sultanate, its military commander, Hang Tua, sailed westwards towards Vijayanagar (present-day Andhra Pradesh & postions of Odisha) to learn more about this ultra-rich empire. After he arrived, at the Royal Court he displayed his Malay martial arts prowess (Silat) & when asked what his name was, the Emperor admitted his failure to pronounce his name properly, upon which Hang Tua proposed that the Emperor call him ‘Laksmana’. This term in today’s Malaysia denotes the term ‘Admiral’ & every Chief of the Royal Malaysian Navy is called a Laksmana, while the Vice Admiral is called Laksmana Madya & First Admiral (rear admiral) is called Laksmana Pertama.

Cont’d below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Socialism has several definitions, as Mrs Indira Gandhi always used to point out. Socialism does not only mean sharing all material goods & services equitably as practiced in the Kibbutz, nor does it come anything close to extremes like ‘Sonatan Dharma’. To me, socialism means any activity that leads to the steady growth of a country’s GDP & ensures its near-equitable distribution. To me, it also means running the country as efficiently & productively as a profitable MNC. But in terms of Hindutva, if one were to borrow pages from historically recorded texts dating back to Asoka The Great, socialism will be defined as nothing else but a means to achieve the status of a knowledge-based welfare state that has both material surpluses & disposable incomes that can be channeled into productive investments.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: Was that remark made by Shiv, or was it someone masquerading as Shiv, or was it just another 'anonymous' entity?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/in-another-shocker-for-navy-warship-s-part-goes-missing/article1-1197350.aspx

DAshu said...

Please do not get me wrong but from the previous blog

Anonymous said...
P.S. said: "Not possible, since no nuclear-powered submarine owned by PLAN has to date conducted such long-distance patrols."

You may want to re-check your sources. If they say there was no Shang in the IOR recently, you may want to get new sources.
March 16, 2014 at 6:18 AM


Prasun K. Sengupta said...
To Anon@6.18AM: The sources at my disposal are beyond your comprehension, rest assured, & they certainly don't include deluded fan-boys who claim that the DF-21D is an ASBM.

I guess he was right .

rad said...

Hi Prasun
Grp capt Perumal is dead , died of heart attack a year ago, he was flying with kingfisher then.
He loved his aircraft and called it a classic that had unequaled range , it seems it could fly from delhi and go back after after visiting tamil nad .He did buzz my town a couple of times at 500 agl!
He was also bitter that there was a north south divide and southies were discriminated. That was why mig-29 pilots who locked on to f-16s were given shaurya chakras!! where in the world do pilots get that!?. He was denied his honor In spite of saving his ac after a missile hit and bringing it back to srinagar AFB . I believe there are very few ac that have survived and landed after a missile hit. I believe the Israelis extended the tail pipe of the a-4 sky hawks to survive IR missile hits and were quite success full. when i asked why he did not make a petition for the honor he said "screw them its useless" Finally after a couple of years if i am right, they gave him the shaurya chakra out of compulsion and some thing lesser to jha his navigator.
He also told me that he knew the pakis had infiltrated into our side a year ago! before Kargill when he flew recce and substantiated with photos. This info was sent to the higher ups and lay gathering dust.
When the chief La Fontaine accosted him and asked him "who gave you the order fly on the border" his CO cooly said "i Did" and stood by his ward , needless to say a very spooked and embarrassed chief shut up .It seems the army was trying to put the blame on the airforce for not detecting the intrusion. So the visibly upset chief wanted some scapegoats to save his skin irrespective whether the country was invaded or not!
He did show me the gyro of the stinger missile which was embedded in the engine . He also presented me with his old flying overall which i treasure.
Son of a humble flower vendor, worked his way up after sainik and NDA. May his soul rest in peace.
Please comment.

rad said...

Hi Prasun
Is there a facility for chinese subs and ships to dock and replenish in the Maldives, what is the actual fact. Your map of the route of the chinese nuke sub seems to stop in maldives.
Maldives is filled with chinese tourists with disgusting habits, so says a friend in the hospitality business in male

Vikram said...

@ Mr RAD

You are Completely WRONG

Group Captain Perumal was awarded
SHAURYA Chakra for bringing back his Canberra reconaissance plane
which had been hit by a Stinger
Missile in the Kargil War

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2012/03/kargil-hero-pilot-perumal-remembered.html

Read this above article

Just Google these words

" Group Captain Perumal Kargil "
and you will get plenty of Information

You should have the sense and decency to do some search before
spreading canards

Ex Intelligence said...

Prasun ,

(1)The Constitution of India says that for a new state to be formed the bill must be passed by the State's Assembly . That's how Uttrakhand , Jharkhand & Chattisgarh were formed . Maharasthra , AP were carved out from provinces , they were not states contrary to what you said.

(2) The C 17 is a useless aircraft and it's assembly lines were on verge of being closed as they were not receiving any orders even in the US . That's when the US arm twisted India to procure this horribly expensive & outdated aircraft. The same applies for the Shtil as well . If it's such a great system why are the Ruskies replacing it with the Redut ? Ruskies told the Indian delegation take it or leave it & GOI complied. They did the same with the Mig 29K as well , selling it to India with an obsolete radar when an AESA radar was available for integration .

(3) The terms of the tenders are crafted specifically so that it suits just 1 or 2 vendors .

(4) On a side not , you really want your reader's to believe that "the whole of UP, Bihar & WB" are Krishna followers ?

What I do agree with you is that when compared to the lowest common denominators like Pakistan , Nepal , Bangladesh , Iraq among other such shitholes India does look good .

Pierre Zorin said...

I remember the name came up as a blogger id so unless someone indeed pretended to be him by signing up as a blogger I would say it was him.

Sourav Paul said...

Sir , a few questions.
1. what is the difference between the yakhont and brahmos ?
2.what is supposed to be the differences between pak fa and fgfa?
3.as the so called "partners" in the pakfa project are we supposed to receive pre production aircraft for testing as with britain in the f-35 program?
4.any news on the jaguar re engine programe?
5. what are the present numbers og jaguars and su-30s in service currently?
6.any news on the insas replacemnt programe?
7.any news on k-172 missile.??
thank you

Messenger said...

@Vikram,
you are caught. You did not read RAD's comments before barking.
He did say He was awarded and explained the circumstances surrounding it.
Yes, Hindi domination, islam, congress, US etc are the forces behind Indian Integrity and social disturbances either in the past, or present, or in future or past/present, present/future/ past/present/future with some of these factors. I do not know Namo may be good or bad but certainly better than congress.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

whats your opinion on ISKCON? specifically related to main stream Hindu Gods/ Hinduism.

To put my question more clearly:
ISKCON consider all Hindu Gods as semi gods. Am asking from this POV.

Sometimes I find it hard to accept their logic if they have any and can not accept this.

Sourav Paul said...

sir,
in my opinion ,the present financial crisis nullifies the logic behind pursueing the mmrca programme..it was conceived at a time of economic prosperity when money ws available everywhere but in the present scenario that much amount of money can be and should be spent to alleviate several other shortcomings.aircaft alone cannot win wars..it is possible only by the concerted effort of a 'war machinery', of which aircraft are only a part;there are several other components that as at least as important if not more than frontline combat aircraft.the most important by far is infrastucture..which includes roads , railways and maintainence and which we are lagging behind our potential adversaries.if a weapon system cannot be brought to the battlefield on time and intact and be supported there ,it is all but useless , irrespective of how capable it is.roads are therefore undeniably the arteries of the entire war machine. our border roads at present are nowhere close to being adequate to support a full fleged war with china ..whereas on the contrary china has 6 lane highways along its borders.in case of hostilities china would be able to swifty shuttle men and materials to and from the theatre.
another infrastructure component that the iaf lacks is base hardening.most of our aircraft are sheltered in open top revetments which would have been fine till the 90s but are now equivalent to nothing guven the proliferation of PGMs in our neighbourhood.a 71 style pre emptive attack on our bases would obliterate almost the entire fleet as they wont miss this time.
another glaring hole in our defences is the complete lack of a capable IADS .the most potent SAM in our arsenal today is the akash but its range is only 25 km. so it wont be of much use if the enemy employs stand off munitions( like the raad and dh-10) .also we have zero capability to intercept pgms in flight(china has tor m1).
finally i must say that in the mad rush of 'modernisation' the most powerful weapon in our arsenal has been left out..ie the soldier.they lack bullet proof vests , helmets ,proper camoflage ,communication and night vision equipment.although i must say that insas is a pretty decent weapon and should be retained and modenised.
so with this many holes to plug it seems to me that dwindling aircraft numbers are only a small leak.20 billion dollars can be of much use, if spent properly, to address some if not all of our issues that our armed forces face today.
and finally i must say that our defence planners must learn to know the differnce between 'good' and 'good enough'.the bisons , jags and mig 27s are at present GOOD ENOUGH and can be upgraded in the near future to keep them at parity with the enemy.
in the meanwhile i feel that the white elephant MMRCA must be either killed off or cut to size by buying a less expensive alternative , gripen or super hornet maybe.

ratin said...

when the shiavite sect started in india i mean how old it is ?

Anonymous said...

@ ex intelligence,

the constitution of India doesnot say that bi/tri furcation of a state requires mandatory approval by concerned state assembly. Only that the bill has to be passed in Parliament. IF your version were true, previous Mayawati govt had passed a resolution to divide UP to 4 states, but actually no effect. In addition, the first state reorganization was done by parliament, in 1956 even when provincial assemblies were already existing. There is no need to be alarmed by the fact that more states are created, since it will decentralize the governance.

Sreenivas. R

Unknown said...

@ Ex- Intelligence,

Your perceptions about C- 17ER is absolutely unfounded . It is a fantastic aircraft with no equal as it operates from runways as short as 3500 ft , requires only a crew of 3 to operate and carries a load of 77 tons. As against it is IL 76 which required 4500-5000 ft runways , a crew of 5-6 and load carrying capacity is only 60 tons and FYI U.S operates 220 C17aircraft and they provide a strategic airlift capability like none other.It is an expensive piece of equipment and so in US because of their trimming of Defence bugdet has stopped further orders . In fact but for ''dithering'' Antony, further orders of 8-10 aircraft for the IAF is yet to be placed. we need 50 such aircraft to have any reasonable strategic capability.

rad said...

to Vikram
First off all have some bloody sense and decency before you make allegations about me spreading canards . I wonder what is hurting you so much when lapses are exposed .? I heard it from the horses mouth , and i clearly stated what the grp capt himself told me .I have also clearly mentioned that he did get his shuarya chakra belatedly , that is what i wrote . If exposing the laspes of the armed forces hurts you so much then you should be attacking Prasun every day for exposing them and bringing them to light .I believe blogs like this have a responsibility to safeguard this country from inept fools and arseholes who are in the helm of affairs and fail to do their job.
For your bloody information it was i who wrote to Shiv in live fist defence and narated the details prompting him to write the article, you will find my name as friend who narrated the story!
why dont you go to the article where the reasons for kargill war heros getting awards are stated .
You will find that mig-29 pilots who had connections got shaurya chakras for radar locking on to F-16s. !@##$%. Not even ACM took place!!.

abs said...

@Prasunda
Very Many Thanks.Highly informative, as only you could be.
Would like to share some of the buzz in twitter these days from the columnists. A few of them are going on speculating if Congress would ever be able to make a comeback in another 20-25 years.
Still others are comparing NaMo with Lee Kuan Yew or Shinzo Abe. Some more have him bracketed as 'Hitler'. The utter fake historian has concluded NaMo as 'Hugo Chavez'. AAP fanatics have been parroting what their idol had said 'Ambani Agent'.
And elsewhere, there is the news of India catching a very big fish who happened to be in India's list of top terrorists.
Funny Place :)

Sourav Paul said...

@ex intelligence
i agree with you on the point of the c-17 being overpriced but it is by no stretch of imagination outdated; rather it is the best heavy lifter commercially available today and you cannot beat the yankies to delivery schedule..all of our us purchases have been ontime and some even before time,in stark contrast to our recent russian purchases and it comes with the best support infrastructure.
as far as shitl is concerned it seems that it is adequate for the needs of IN as the primary role of our destroyers is anti surface and anti submarine, the shitl is meant only for self defence , apurpose it serves well.also one must keep in mind the fact that longer ranged systems such as the fort(naval s-300) have been available to us since the 90s but the navy chose not to go in for such systems.this only suggests that the shitl is well in line with the naval doctrine which seems to employ sams as only a self defence tool.
coming to the mig 29k, it is presently without doubt the best naval fighter in the world and without doubt it is the only fighter available at the time it was bought that could have efficiently operated of the vikramaditya .the su-33 was available but it would have had to operate with a very limited fuel or payload and the rafale has only recently been certified for STOBAR ops and its capabilities rom such a platform is questionable.the super hornet is not compatible wuth STOBAR

Mr. Ra13 said...

Now now gentlemen, patience is a virtue, arguments are in vain, bickering and infighting spoils the game!

Vikrant said...

EX Intelligence:
Mate, I have no idea where you got the c-17 part of your post from because on all criteria payload,utility on austere runways(ALGs),delivery schedule and support it is by far the very best in its class,heck we need a lot more of those if we need around 25 of those urgently.
Sir,
1)During the Crimean crisis I went through the Russian navy's assets
They included cruisers of the rather majestic Kirov,Slava classes.Hell Kirov is a 24000 tonnes nuclear powered behemoth serving as Flagship in Severomorsk(northen fleet),and the Russian navy is refurbishing mothballed units of the same for future use,I mean aren't these cold war relics like the Typhoon SSBNs. Aren't Sovremenyy Udaloy and future russian DDGs enough in this day and age?
2)Even in these days of crisis for IN is it realistic the shang class guest in the IOR be tailed by indian Tu-142s and P-8is isnt it to collect valuable acoustic data?

Iceman said...

Sir,
1.when will hal luh first flight will happen?
2.any updates on drdo aew&cs?

Anonymous said...

Hi,

Do you think the support for india increased after the Kashmir students raised pak flags or decreased? Also please tell us shia's across the border why ashura is banned in indian held kashmir? or are you just playing politics?

Ali

DefenseandAerospace said...

Hi Prasun ,

(a) Why did India send both the TU 142 & the P8I to search the Malaysian Airline ? Wouldn't it have been enough to send just the P8I ?

(b) Are there any upgradation plan for the TU 142 and if yes what are they ?

(c) When will the Indian Navy phase out the TU 142 ?

VMT

raw13 said...

@Prasun

Previously you had mentioned that the Panter howitzer is based on FH2000. The specs are indeed very very similar, except for the engine. However, why is it that the Panter weighs 4tonnes heavier?

This is currently entering PA in numbers and is being locally assembled/produced. Do you think this will have an impact on IA purchases? Is there a chance that the IA might go with the original FH2000?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: Rest assured, I didn’t get anyone or anything wrong. Whay? The answer lies in distinguishing between a voyage & a patrol. The former is announced in advance & everyone concerned knows about it, while the latter is kept secret & is treated as a strictly-need-to-know basis on the operator’s part. The fact that this deployment of the Type 093 Shang-class SSN was made known to China’s ‘friends’ therefore does not put it in the category of a ‘patrol’ but rather a ‘voyage’, & I will dwell more upon this on the next thread, to be uploaded later today.

To RAD: It’s sad to hear about Grp Capt Perumal’s demise. May he rest in peace. I don’t buy the argument about southern being discriminated against by northerners. But what I do know for sure that there were several goof-ups WRT award of bravely/gallantry medals/honours by all three armed services. And the CAS at that time was not ACM D A LaFontaine, but ACM A Y Tipnis. And the main reason why no one from India had a clue about Pakistani military infiltrations was not because of oversight, but because the Pakistan Army had used only its then newly-acquired Ulan-Ude-built Mi-171 helicopters for accomplishing all logistical taskings (consuming an alarming number of flight-hours in 3 months what would normally take two years to accomplish!) & therefore there was no noticeable road/rail movement. It is all clearly explained in the book WITNESS TO BLUNDER by Col Ashfaque Hussian. Therefore, neither the IA nor the IAF could have detected any tell-tale sign of forward movements by the NLI since in those days the IA or IAF never had radars like Bharani, Ashlesha or even the BFSRs. I will explain it all in a future thread sometime in May 2014 which diagrams & charts.

There are no fleet replenishment facilities for PLAN in The Maldives, only in Seychelles. But the PLAN likes to copy very closely the Soviet-era practices like having ‘offshore afloat’ logistics vessels housing perishables, consumables, logisticians, & MRO personnel. That’s why one always sees a Ro-Ro vessel accompanying the aircraft carrier ‘Liaoning 16’, since this Ro-Ro vessel houses the replacement crew complements as well as MRO crew complements. As for tourism in The Maldives, you may be aware that The Maldives NEVER allows back-packers to arrive as tourists. Which means the visiting Chinese tourists there are all relatives or family-members of corrupt high-ranking card-holders of the Communist Party of China.

To EX-INTELLIGENCE: 1) That’s totally erroneous. Don’t know why you’re throwing such wild canards. 2) Again, that’s totally erroneous. Don’t know why you’re throwing such wild canards. 3) If that were indeed the case, then only the two so-called pre-selected vendors would participate in the competition & others won’. The mere fact that more than 2 vendors have competed on several occasions proves your assertion to be totally wrong. 4) Not whole, but wide prevalence. Does that sound better?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SOURAV PAUL: 1) Yakhont & BrahMos-1 share the same airframe & terminal seekers. But the BrahMos-1’s range was originally capped at 300km (instead of the true range of 550km) & it also has a DRDO-developed inertial navigation system. 2) PAK-FA/T-50 will have Russia-built avionics on-board, while FGFA will have a mixture of Russian/Western/Indian on-board systems & avionics. 3) Of course. Two units due later this year. 4) Nope. Union MoF has not yet authorised the re-engining. 5) Jaguars is about 130. Su-30MKI more than 180. 6) No. 7) No.

To Anon@11.15PM: ISKON is a sub-cult of the Bhakti cult, i.e. it prefers oversimplified answers that does not involve taxing one’s mind, if you get my drift.

To RATIN: Your guess is as good as mine. So far, neither the ASI nor the GSI has done any meaningful work on continental Kumari Kandam. Only some isolated cases of academic research has been done in the south as well as the BHU. Interestingly, the Westerners/Caucasians/Goras are far more advanced than Indians in this area.

To SREENIVAS R & UNKNOWN: VMT for the explanations & clarifications.

To VIKRAM GUHA & RAD: I can understand that given the present-day administrative paralysis plagueing the GoI, frustrations are bound to increase, but at the same time this is not the time to vent one’s ‘inner aggressions’ (LoLz!) through vicious personal attacks. Kindly let bygones be bygones & let us all not digress from our principal focus on far more important issues/developments. So, let us chill out & start gulping the Guinness Stouts, for summertime is fast approaching.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABS: It all depends on whether or not the BJP-led NDA will be able to communicate routinely with the masses of India & whether or not NaMo will follow the footsteps of visionary leaders gifted with strategic visioning. I personally do not believe that NaMo is a born leader, but that should not stand in the way of his displaying leadership attributes if he proves himself to be a keen learner from history. He’s certainly not Hitler by any stretch of the imagination. If he is, then even those in power during the anti-Sikh riots of 1984 or the communal riots of Mumbai in 1992/1993 should be classified as such. And for the record, the one politician who went out of his way to help the late Dhirubhai Ambani is not Modi, but Pranab Mukherjee, & this has been documented before by several other distinguished GoI officials in their memoirs. Wonder why AAP is keeping quiet about ‘Saharashri’ Subrata Roy, the alleged bagman for Mulayam Singh Yadav who reportedly specialises in ‘para-banking’, i.e. washing black-money into white, something similar to what the now-defunct Sharada Group used to indulge in. The ‘big fish’ was that IM member of Pakistani origin, about whom all TV news channels have been splashing out the details as given out by Delhi Police. Lastly, remember what I had stated sometime back about plans once drawn out for transforming the Andaman & Nicobar Islands into an offshore financial centre & container transhipment terminal hub? Well, today I can confirm that the roadmap for all this was drawn up by a team led by N K Singh, who’s now dumped the JDU in favour of the BJP.

To VIKRANT: 1) Yes, those are Cold War relics, but nevertheless, Russia does them to fall on the wrong hands. 2) Since the Type 093 SSN was already transiting the IOR fully submerged as part of its ‘declared’ voyage, it would be up to the INS Chakra, plus SSNs of the US Navy & the Royal Navy to stay close to the PLAN SSN. P-8Is & Tu-142Ms can detect SSNs or any other SSKs only when they’re at periscope depth, not when they’re submerged.

To ICEMAN: 1) Hopefully next year. 2) No.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ALI: Support from where? And were Pakistan’s flags raised by the J & K-origin students? Or did they just cheer the Pakistani cricket team? In either case, they just made themselves the laughing stock & the same goes for those who took offense to the needless antics of these students. Cricket is a game of, for & by gentlemen. What this means is that the audience watching any tournament should display similar mannerisms. If the audience does not, & instead gets emotional by giving vent to some inner aggression for whatever reason, then they’re not only insulting cricket, but are also to be held guilty of losing their mental equilibrium. For, if you were to ask them that if Person A and Person B were engaging on a duel onto death with swords & if A succeeded in killing B, then these students would most certainly say that it is A who deserves to go to hell. But, in reality, both A & B deserve to go to hell, since even B had the very same intention as A, i.e. to kill his/her adversary. This is the kind of wisdom that used to be displayed by the Holy Prophet (as recorded in the Al Hadith), but this very kind of wisdom is totally absent from most of the world’s Muslims. Why? I really don’t know. Maybe because the Quran Sharif & Al Hadith are both written in Arabic—a language whose words the non-Arab Muslims can read or recite, but can’t understand or write & hence the prevailing intellectual deficiency among most Muslim communities worldwide. As for Ashura being banned, another blogger had explained this clearly in a previous thread: the ‘brotherly’ Sunnis always used such occasions to target the Shias through suicide-bombings, the kind of which one comes across almost any given day in Pakistan or Iraq. I personally believe that the Shias & its cults like the Ismaili Muslims & Dawoodi Bohras are far more progressive than their Sunni brethren. Why so? That’s an entirely different topic requiring another exhaustive explanation.

To DEFENSE & AEROPSPACE: 1) Only C-130J-30 Super Hercules & P-8I. No Tu-142M. 2) Not for now. 3) By 2017.

To RAW13: Because of the heavier & more powerful APU that enables the Panter to negotiate steeper gradients when manoeuvring in the mountains. I don’t think one country’s purchase of weapons like Panter will influence another to go something else, i.e. an action-reaction spiral. All countries’ armed forces have to undergo force modernisation as mature weapon systems become available. Therefore, the switch to 52-calibre 155mm howitzers is inevitable, i.e. a matter of when & how many, & not IF. But the PA has traditionally been the first in the subcontinent to introduce new-generation weapon systems, barring only very few exceptions since the late 1990s & that too because the IA could obtain from Israel what the PA could not. Likewise, the PN is the first South Asian navy to adopt AIP for its Agosta 90B SSKs, whereas the IN is the first to introduce LF communications for its submarines & APAR for its principal surface combatants.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Mr.RA 13: Totally agree with you. Far better to focus on the 'tsunami' of information/data that aims at fixing the problems, instead of fixing the blame.

Now, here's what IAI/ELTA sent me by e-mail yesterday:

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has completed installation and integration of two ELM-2248 MF-STAR radars installed on-board a corvette and frigate class battleships for two different leading naval customers. The MF-STAR, designed and manufactured by IAI's ELTA Systems Ltd. subsidiary and group is a multi-function digital solid-state Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar system for the new generation of naval platforms. The radar system delivers a high-quality situational picture and weaponry support. IAI's MF-STAR 4D fully digital AESA shipborne radar is considered to be the most advanced shipborne radar in its class on the market. The radar is customizable according to customer's requirements and vessel type. Two different radar sizes were chosen for the corvette and frigate class type installations to accommodate for vessel mast size and weight-carrying capabilities. The system's unique antenna consists of four static S-band AESA incorporating advanced technology and robust system architecture. MF-STAR employs multi-beam and pulse Doppler techniques as-well-as robust ECCM techniques to extract low RCS targets from complex clutter and jamming environments. The hardware architecture and technology ensure high system availability, low maintenance requirements and low life-cycle cost.
---------------------------------

This obviously now means that work on 'systems integration' too is nearing an end. By inference, the MF-STAR should be operational with the Barak-2 LR-SAM by mid-2015.

F said...

Prasun,

If MAD and sonabuoys are employed, why can't MPAs like the P-8 and Bear detect submerged subs?

Also, have you seen this?

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/russians-go-slow-sukhoi-fleet-in-trouble

Will be intresting to find out whether the RMAF is having similar problems.

Would it be fair to say that even taking into account the Russians are slow to deliver parts, that Indonesia and Vietnam will have less problems with their Su-27s/30s due to the fact that they have much less non-standard Russian gear integrated compared to the MKM and MKI?

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da ,

I am sorry but I am not the poster who uses the handle "Vikram" :) I comment on your blog these days with my Google + / Blogger account .And in case you were referring to some other Vikram Guha , I apologize for jumping in .

But let's not forget the Guinness Stouts .

Best Regards,
Vikram

Sourav Paul said...

sir,
what is the reason that officers inducted into armed forces under the short service commision courses are not permitted to extend their service period beyond 14 years ..in these times of crisis i feel that ii would be rather wise to reatin these experienced officers rather than train new cadets and spend a whole lot of money and time on that

rad said...

HI Prasun
I am wrong in stating that the chief was la-fontaine , i stand corrected. It was in a fit of anger i responded and clearly my mind was clouded as i took offence of some one trying to disrespect a chap who fought in a war and put his life on the line for us all . More over he was a friend. Well the north south divide is there according to him that was the reason he claimed that he was overlooked for the shaurya chakra initially , when the whole world knew what he had achieved in the war. He was also told to eject by the controller but preferred to stay with the canberra and became a hero for the maintenance boys.Thus denying pak another ac shot down tally.
Your advice about guiness is well taken but i find it too bitter! i think i will stick to desi king fisher extra strong !!!

rad said...

Hi Prasun

Why on earth did Seychelles give
docking and replenishment facility
to the chinese? bribes or some form of investment ? They would have known that the free world would not be happy with that then why ?. This is in spite of being more french and western in culture

Anonymous said...

Rad,
If I remember correctly Seychelles offered India this facility first in mid 90s. At that time, we had "peace loving third front retarded politicians" ruling India. They refused this offer as they thought that there is no need to have any defense force as the cold war was offer. China jumped in and they got it. Prasun, correct me if I am wrong.

Ravi N

sujoymajumdar said...

Prasun Da ,

It seems one more of your forecast has come true .

Malaysian PM has now confirmed that MH 370 has crashed in the Indian Ocean around 1400 off the coast of West Australia .

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304179704579459161537152946?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304179704579459161537152946.html

Question is , what exactly was going on .

Best ,

Sujoy

Iceman said...

sir,
1.how many rashtriya rifle battalions are in the Indian army?
2.will the new government lift the blacklisting of IMI,Rheinmetall?
3.do you have any idea when will FGFA R&D contract will be signed?
4.Does india have anti-satellite capability as it was mentioned by Former DRDO chief vk saraswat?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FARIS: Submarine detection is all about a sequence of events. MR/ASW aircraft’s search radars always detect submarines ONLY WHEN the latter is cruising at periscope depth. If the latter is alerted to the presence of the MR/ASW aircraft, then it dives to deeper depths. While it is in the process of doing so, the MR/ASW aircraft firstly deploys sonobuoys in a pattern so as to block all escape routes for the submarine while at the same time using the MAD. The estimated location of this search location is called the DATUM & it is from here that the ASW sweep is conducted in an outward pattern as more time flies by. Thus, as you can see, initiating an ASW sweep is made up of a sequence of events that begin with the submarine’s periscope being detected by the MR/ASW aircraft’s search radars.

As for the Su-30MKI’s product-support problems, I’ve already explained it all above in this thread under the subheading ‘Yellow Journalism Yet Again’. The fact remains that there are no such problems at all. The IAF’s Aircraft & Systems Testing Establishment (ASTE) & the DRDO’s Defence Avionics Research Establishment (DARE) are perfectly capable of resolving the problem of blanking cockpit avionics displays—something that I have also explained in detail above.

To VIKRAM GUHA: My extreme apologies for the confusion I created.

To RAD & RAVI N: The agreement between Seychelles & China is the same as that between Seychelles & India. Both China & India have been allowed by Seychelles to make use of Seychelles’ port facilities on strictly commercial terms & conditions without any bias. In fact, Seychelles’ navy now operates ex-IN FAC-Ms & the IN also deploys a Do-228 MPA there on a rotational basis. In Madagascar IN has a SIGINT facility & a similar facility is planned at one of the islands owned by Mauritius as well.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: VMT. Malaysia would have reached the same conclusion much earlier had its government employed the services of remote viewers (psychic warriors)—something the US has been doing since the 1980s.

To ICEMAN: 1) About 65. 2) Let’s wait & see. To me, blacklisting does not produce any results & is therefore counterproductive. A far better option is to always impose financial penalties on companies for any wrongdoing, but definitely not blacklisting. 3) It has already been signed. 4) Not yet. Only after the PDV is made operational will India acquire a credible ASAT capability against low-earth orbiting overhead recce satellites.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-running-low-on-ammunition/articleshow/32569909.cms

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da ,

No apologies required at all. I was just clarifying so that you realize that I wasn't the one raising those questions .

Thanks ,

Vikram

Anonymous said...

Prasun da,

1). I am curious on the naming system adopted by our armed forces...like XXI strike corps and XVII corps when we actually have only 13 corps in all. Similarly, INAS 303, 300 and 552 (I am sure we dont have that many squadrons in our naval service). Is this naming convention to deceive the enemy or is it based on anything else.

2). On another aspect, on what basis we call our principal ships as Destroyers and Frigates or even corvettes (Our ASW corvette Kamorta will become equivalent to a destroyer in a few countries!). Because Shivalik class FFGs are basically in range of Destroyers in most navies.

thanks in advance...

Sreenivas R

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://www.firstpost.com/india/india-russia-to-ink-deal-for-anti-tank-ammunition-1448467.html?utm_source=hp-footer

The Ruskies are now getting market-savvy, after all.....replacing IMI.

Anonymous said...

prasun,

what happens to pak in the next 10-25 yrs?

rad said...

HI Prasun\
cant we make tank ammo?
whats wrong ?
There are news making rounds that the maldives have given an island exclusively for the chinese for sigint and elint , true?. Do we have a toe hold there as the present fellows seem to be averse to india. But on a positve side gayooms men seemed to have won again . Gayoom shoulfd be friendly with india and i hear he has a lot of connection i here. I do believe his daughter studied in one of the hill station schools in S.india
Again coming to the aesa radar on the kolkata class ships, i feel they do have a anti missile tracking capability and anti satellite tracking capability given the size of the radar aperture.we could use these ships for future tracking of space objects as well ,

Raj Shekhar said...

Prasun,

You have mentioned in couple of your blog entries that piracy patrol in Gulf of Aden and other Indian Ocean locations can be achieved by Indian Navy's patrol vessels. You believe there is no need for frigates or destroyers for that work.

I hope you know that pirates have often used swarm techniques to overcome escort ships. In one case, there were 72 speed boats running towards the Chinese escorted flotilla in 2012. Their helos used flare firing and stun grenades but it was of no use as pirates were aiming their bazookas on ships. Only when Chinese special forces aimed their guns and canons on pirates, that they stopped the chase.

Given this kind of persistence of Somalian pirates and a whole industry behind them (including financiers, weapon handlers, even terrorists getting their cut), believing some patrol ships can deter them is not very convincing.

Would love to get your opinion on this.

BTW I hope you know that Somali pirates are quite scared of four navies - US, Indian, French and Russian.

DefenseandAerospace said...

Hi Prasun ,

(A) The Indian Navy has launched a hunt for a Boom Defence System, to protect warships within harbours and at sea from collisions, and terror strikes involving divers and surface craft . Which companies do you think can provide the most cutting edge Boom Defense System ?

http://tenders.gov.in/viewtenddoc.asp?tid=del640787&wno=1&td=TD

(B) DRDO is developing an onboard health monitoring system for submarines . What are the key technical challenges that they need to overcome ?

- VMT



Gessler said...

Sir, there is a report that DRDO has tired fired an SLBM with "over 2,000km range" from Business Standard and IDRW :

http://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/india-test-fires-long-range-n-missile-launched-from-under-sea-114032501060_1.html

http://idrw.org/?p=35469

Can you confirm if this is true? Is this missile the K-4 ?

Pintu said...

Prasun Da, as Gessler stated, there was also a news in Hindu appeared on 25.3.2014 regarding cancellation of Air India Express flight IX -681 scheduled for 4 PM in Singapore-Tiruchi-Chennai Sector reason sited as launch of experimental launch vehicle over the Bay of Bengal between noon and 4PM on that very day :

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-tamilnadu/flight-cancelled-passengers-take-a-bus-ride-to-chennai/article5828688.ece

If so, then it seems they have paid heed your blog for not making a picnic party with Desi journos, in the case of Nirbhay & last test of K4/B05, and surprisingly, no news in most probably other pan-indian media house, excepting Business Standard ?

Gessler said...

Oh no oh no oh no...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/indianews/article-2589224/IAF-plan-buy-refuellers-hit-39-year-old-probe.html

Some MP has awakened a 39-year old probe against Airbus in a bid to scuttle the A330 MRTT deal.

arun said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/NIA-on-the-margins-in-arrest-of-key-Indian-Mujahideen-operatives/articleshow/32695278.cms

indian intelligence agencies are doing great job,is there any specific threat to mr NaMo

Jaidev said...

Prasunda,

Do you have any information on DH-10 cruise missiles and CJ-10/CJ-20 cruise missiles of China? how potent are they and can they be used to strike an aircraft carrier?

Thanks

Ex Intelligence said...

More skeletons in the cupboard

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/secret-handshakes-in-india-fuel-fastest-asia-inflation-114032501285_1.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER & PINTU: Have just uploaded two illustrations above, the first of which shows the ECDIS-generated marine navigation map (as seen on the missile fire-control system console) in which the instrumented missile-launch area is shown off Vizag. I've superimposed in maroon the designated flight-path of the K-4 SLBM, whose second test-firing took place on March 24, 2014, based on NOTAMs issued to civil aviation & merchant marine agencies. Estimated impact area was the north-western tip of the Andamans.

Abhay Jain said...

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1jvtim_bay-laag-26h-march-2014_news?start=1914

A very balanced discussion regarding nuclear deterrence viz a viz pakistan india in a pakistani talk show.

prasun sir,

I would like to have your comment on this program if you manage to watch this show

regards
abhay

Sourav Paul said...

sir could you kindly confirm the range of k-4 .it was earlier stated to be 3500km but presently some sources say it is only 2000 km

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SREENIVAS R: 1) There’s no fixed methodology to be employed for numbering the formations or squadrons. It may even go to the extent of numbering a squadron or regiment after the last four digits of the commissioning number of the then Flag Officer Naval Aviation or the GOC-in-C of a theatre command of the IA. 2) As for designating warships as DDGs, FFGs or corvettes, the IN follows the universally accepted norms for blue-water navies. Therefore, such norms may not necessarily apply to navies with only brown-water capabilities.

To Anon@6.34AM: That depends on whether or not Pakistan will allow history to repeat itself. For instance, in the early 1950s Pakistan decided to offer itself for sale to the highest bidder & consequently it became a member of SEATO & CENTO pacts but it still failed to preserve its territorial sanctity & religious ideology & as a result of this in 1971 the concept of religious identity constituting the basis for nationhood had to be dumped forever in the Bay of Bengal. Later, Pakistan realised its folly by the 1990s & initiated divorce proceedings against the West/the US & by 2011 such proceedings were completed. Now, Pakistan is once again looking for its second life-partner in the Arabian peninsula & has decided to go to bed with the likes of Saudi Arabia, the UAE & Bahrain. How long this marriage of convenience will last is anyone’s guess. But one thing is clear: a theocratic state like Pakistan cannot co-exist in peace with a secular state like India in any sphere. If Pakistan sees the light of day, then it too will have to become a secular state to survive in the long-run, just like what Bangladesh has done. You may find this discussion interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3SU4vqq-iw

& also this:

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-warns-pakistan-abducted-soldier-feared-executed-171822200.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Of course the DRDO can develop 120mm & 125mm ammo rounds of various types, while the OFB can series-produce them. But to complete the R & D cycles on timed & within schedule requires appreciable investments in R & D-related hardware & human resources, the kind of which are not always available. Hence the huge time-lag. There are no China-manned/China-owned SIGINT installations anywhere in the IOR. Anyone coming to power in The Maldives has to be friendly with India, since only India can provide the economic & survival lifelines to that island-nation. Plys, there are the cultural ties due to which Maldivian citizens prefer to frequent India for pursuing higher education or for seeking medical assistance. Geographically, therefore, no one else can replace India, leave alone China. Orientation of the APAR apertures on board P-15A DDGs are not optimised for tracking satellites in space or for ballistic missiles of any type.

To RAJ SHEKHAR: VMT. Swarm tactics can easily be defeated by high-calibre 30mm or 20mm cannons when mounted on NOPVs & are accompanied by long-range IRST sensors that also double up as target detection fire-control systems. That’s the first layer of defence. The second layer comprises shipborne naval infantry personnel trained as sharpshooters & armed with 12.7mm or 20mm sniper rifles (like what the PLAN’s Marines have when deployed in the Horn of Africa). In the IN’s case, a NOPV armed with twin 30mm AK-630Ms & two IRST sensors (one fore & one aft) will be more than enough to successfully engage the ‘swarms’ of inbound pirates. As an option, detachable mounts of 40mm AGLs with chain-linked ammo supply magazines also ought to be featured on board the NOPVs. By the way, the ‘swarm’ tactics were first practiced with deadly effect by the LTTE’s Sea Tigers & consequently the SLNS Sayura (ex-INS Sarayu) had been armed as far back as the mid-1990s with such AGL mounts/weapons that were acquired by Sri Lanka Navy from Singapore’s ST Kinetics.

To DEFENSE & AEROSPACE: A) Companies specialising in multi-sensor/multi-tier harbour protection systems hail from Germany, Norway, Sweden, Israel, the UK & the US. They’re the main players in this field. B) Such a HUMS optimised for submarines was first developed by TATA Power SED & is already on board the S-2/Arihant. Work is now underway for modifying such on-board HUMS for SSKs & one private-sector company has already not only developed the software for such HUMS, but has also developed a related simulation package for both trend-monitoring of on-board systems as well as for battle-damage response mechanisms/procedures. It was showcased for the very first time at DEFEXPO 2014.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER & SOURAV PAUL: That’s the K-4 SLBM whose targetted range is 3,500km. But what must be noted is that such missiles, while being test-fired for the 1st or 2nd time are NEVER expected to attain their full operational range envelopes. The missile will first be test-fired out to 1,000km, then 1,500km & the range envelopes will subsequently be gradually extended. The first priority is always to validated the performance of various on-board inertial navigation & propulsion systems, followed later by terminal guidance systems & procedures. It is always a sequential, step-by-step, ‘crawl-walk-run’ methodology that’s applied without exception. Therefore, anyone assuming that the maiden or 2nd test-firing of such missiles involves the missile attaining its maximum envisaged range is totally wrong, rest assured.

To ARUN: The best counter-terrorism efforts of a preventive nature are always mounted by intelligence agencies (like the IB & NTRO) acting in concert as a team with local law-enforcement agencies. This has always been the universal norm. Matters will improve further if networks like NATGRID are implemented without any further delay.

To JAIDEV: CJ-10/CJ-20 are as potent as any other ALCM/GLCM, PROVIDED the pre-programmed targetting information (like airborne SAR imagery of the target/s & related GPS coordinates) is accurate. Without such inputs, the missile is useless. Such cruise missiles can be used to attack aircraft carriers when they’re launched in swarms. China had developed a variant of the CJ-10, known as WJ-600, to implement such ‘swarm tactics’ against a carrier battle group.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABHAY JAIN: VMT. That talk-show was subjected to time-constraints & hence did not reveal much. But, it only sought to confirm my earlier assertions about the China-Pakistan military-industrial linkages that were earlier confirmed by Dr A Q ‘Bhopali’ Khan himself in both 212 & 2013 during quite a few TV interviews. Furthermore, since seeing is believing, if Pakistan really wants to convince the world about the ‘indigenous’ nature of its WMD-related R & D activities, then it should at the very least allow TV cameras to venture inside the military-industrial facilities where production of ballistic missiles/cruise missiles & their TELs allegedly takes place. That the PAEC & the Pakistan Army have not yet shown any such documentary proof to Pakistan’s own citizens, leave alone the rest of the world, only proves my long-standing assertions & PoV. Furthermore, just as OP VIJAY, OP SAFED SAGAR & OP TALWAR in mid-1999 proved beyond a shadow of doubt that limited high-intensity conventional wars could be successfully waged under a nuclear overhang, OP Parakram in 2002 conclusively proved that an all-out conventional war under a nuclear overhang was not only inconceivable, but was also not implementable. Thus, India did screw up big-time in 2002 by launching OP Parakram (which contributed to only lending legitimacy to Pakistan’s strategic nuclear deterrent). Instead, what India should have done after the attack on her Parliament was launch a coordinated, retributive sub-conventional-level offensive AirLand campaign throughout the LoC to raise the cost of Pakistan’s sub-conventional-level misadventurisms. Pakistan’s main strategic dilemma today is to try to convince India about the efficacy of its alleged stockpile of tactical WMDs. What would be Pakistan’s response If India were to launch a limited high-intensity conventional AirLand military campaign confined only to the J & K theatre, which can be thwarted only if tactical WMDs were used for defensive purposes inside Pakistan-claimed territory in POK? Will that be politically possible for Pakistan?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

By the way, I do hope you all are aware that there are two different types of X-band SAR imaging & monopulse seekers being developed. One is by DRDL & ECIL with transmitting power of 170 W, & the other is by DATA Patterns for BrahMos-1 with transmitting power of 300 W. Both seekers use/have identical hardware/dimensions, but have different transmitting power-rating & mission algorithms. Therefore, the 170 W seeker is meant for........?

Anonymous said...

The 170W seeker would be for Nirbhay?

- Raj

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJ: Let's look at it this way step-by-step: the X-band monopulse SAR seeker is optimised for supersonic cruise missiles. From there, we move on to the next step, i.e. applications. One is for BrahMos-1. Since both seekers have identical dimensions & have been ruggedised accordingly, one can infer that the 170 W seeker too would go on board a supersonic cruise missile. Therefore, the 170 W seeker is meant for........?

Vikram said...

Sir

Is The 170 W Seeker meant for PRAHAR


DAshu said...

170 W Seeker might be meant for either air launched BrahMos or Helina or Prithvi 3

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM & DASHU: NLOS-BSMs like Prahaar/Pragati & Prithvi-3 are not meant for pinpoint strikes (unlike cruise missiles) & are therefore guided to their targets by ring laser gyro-based inertial navigation systems coupled to GPS receivers. BrahMos-1 & BhahMos-1A/Mini are used for pinpoint strikes & therefore require terminal guidance SAR seekers. But the 300 W seeker for BrahMos-1 will also be on board the BrahMos-1A/Mini. Subsonic cruise missiles like Nirbhay too require SAR seekers for pinpoint strikes, but this 170 W SAR seeker is for an air-launched supersonic cruise missile. HELINA has an altogether different MMW seeker Therefore, by eliminating the BrahMos-1, BrahMos-1A/Mini, Prithvi-3, Prahaar/Pragati, HELINA & Nirbhay, one is then left only with.........?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJ, VIKRAM & DASHU: It's for the air-launched LRCM/air-delivered nuclear munition.

Abhi said...

Mbrl...

Pierre Zorin said...

http://www.brahmand.com/news/US-arms-supply-to-Pakistan-rising/12044/1/10.html - even though the US knows well that 90% of these will be aimed at India and the money saved will fund the terror groups. Plus China will be given free access to these weaponry and after they check their industrial espionage list as to what was not copied, they will endeavour to induct some of these technologies and improvise to suit the needs.

SS said...

But Prithvi Missile uses Fibre Optic Gyroscope (As described to be effective for short distances). And prithvi being a ballistic missile shouldn't maneuver during its descent unless it possesses a Maneuverable reentry warheads (Then too An X-band seeker can only give sensible inputs at limited distances). May be the X-Band seeker is for smaller version of Brahmos (Brahmos-M)

rad said...

HI Prasun
the k-4 tested fell near the andamans. Which is the probable area where the agni -5 series with 5000 km reach fell when tested?. I am sure the powers to be like china and us monitor the total flight as they have space based assets.Is that detrimental.Does china give notam warnings before any missile test? Can the SAR radar of the brahmos be jammed. What about he burmese island that has been given to china for sigint and elint? Is the helina going to have a IIR or MMW seeker. What happened to the one that was test flighted once on the helina/.Why is the NIrbhay being delayed so long is it the same drdo take it easy policy. By the way they are going slow on the test flight they will take anothe 10 years to produce

Why dont we have dedicated satellite tracking radar ships like the chinese ,they seem to have dual use of spying as well. We could fix the aesa radar on to gimbals as to rotate to any azimuth and elevation with suitable software

rohit said...

Prasunda:
Taiwan has 30 Apache attack helicopters and as per IDRW.org they are capable of destroying 2 armored formation.
India has a large boundary and two adversaries then why just 20 Apache if they are so capable.Why not somewhere around 120.

Is the Navy going for only 12 P8i.Is Brahmos Mini going to be integrated with P8i

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da ,

As per your advice I was searching for the Devil in the Details (LOL).

I came up with something . The Ukranians have left behind these naval assets in Crimea . In all likelihood the Ruskies won't give it back to them .

The Ropucha class landing ship
3 Grisha class corvettes
2 Natya class minesweepers
Slavutych command ship
Donbass tender
Tarantul class missile boat
Polnocny class Landing craft

Will it not make sense for India to bargain with Russia to buy a few of these naval vessels given the fact that our Govt owned shipyards are infamous for delivering late on a regular basis ?

Thanks & Regards,
Vikram

Anonymous said...

Hello sir 1. Do you have any information about whether the tata kestrel is to be inducted into the armed forces.. If so when are it's trials scheduled. 2. Is the DRDO carbine being considered by any of the armed or paramilitary forces

Anonymous said...

Prasun da,
thanks for clarifications regarding the naming.
But i find it surprising that SAR seeker is developed for a nuke delivery cruise missile. Even with TNW it is over kill to have possible single digit accuracy aint it. Unless it is to be used against some mobile HVT like aircraft carrier. Sorry if i sound ignorant, but i learnt these things from your blog only, so apologies. And why there is difference in wattage of two SAR seekers.

Sreenivas. R

Mr. RA 13 said...

VMT for all the clarifications.

Gessler said...

Prasun ji, it is said here in the link below that a "Version 2" of Dhanush 155mm / 45-cal howitzer is also underway -

http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140319/jsp/nation/story_18094768.jsp#.UylC5oW3uOs

There is a talk in some discussion sites that this could be a 155mm / 52-cal development. Is there any truth to it?

If OFB comes up with a 155x52 version of Dhanush, we might not have to induct the Kalyani Bharat-52 gun anymore. The commonality that Dhanush enjoys with existing guns is another plus point.

Who Cares said...

Prasun, the LRCM (600kms), would be only of strategic role?
No conventional role in anti ship, land to land and air to land versions?
What would the estimated weight be?
Prahaar, seems to have vanished from the info screens as spectacularly as it entered.

Gessler said...

An IAF C-130J Super Hercules has reportedly crashed near Gwalior. Details are awaited.

@Prasun ji, any insider talk about reason for crash of such a brand new plane that is hardly 2 years into service?

I reckon it could be a freak accident.

Ex Intelligence said...

How the scumbag Nehru gave Gilgit away to the Pakis

http://www.niticentral.com/2012/10/26/nehru-sat-unmoved-as-pakistan-took-gilgit-15206.html


Re the crash of the 130 J the IAF needs to get hold of a few simulators . It will not stop crashes but will reduce the chances of a crash .

Rajeev Chaturvedi said...

Prasunda,

1. When Air force bought C-130J aircraft, did they buy the simulators of all kinds?

2. I see there are trainers for fighter aircraft but I don't see any trainer for transport aircraft, like Americans do on their T-1 Jayhawks?

3.How bad is the crash? Can it be salvaged and repaired?

Its a beautiful and rugged aircraft. Its such a horror to see such precious national property go waste!!!

Is Air Force now competing with Navy?

Anup said...

Dear Sir,

As you know C-130J crash, Is it possible in our country any one taking care of taxpayers money?

Anup

Reddy said...

when I heard C 130 J crash a sick feeling immediately occupied me.

I feel we need DISCIPLINE in our society right from scratch, either be it.. driving,or cooking, or anything in between...

rad said...

HI Prasun
I have a strong feeling that it is pilot error which is possible as it is a new bird and the crew would love to go to the edge of the envelope. There was a c-17 pilot who treated the transport as an fighter with dire consequences.
The c-130 is one of the safest transports around and can fly on 2 engines only as well.
may the crew RIP

Prasun K. Sengupta said...


To PIERRE ZORIN: The type of US-made weapons/platforms being transferred to Pakistan include counter-insurgency hardware like MRAPs, counter-IED sensors, etc, which will not be of any use in conventional wars.

To SS: Prithvi-1/2 both use dry-tuned gyros of the type originally developed in the 1970s & their production know-how was transferred to India in the mid-1980s by AlliedSignal of the US (now part of Honeywell). FINGS is used on board missiles like AAMs & ATGMs, & not by Prithvi, which is not a ballistic missile at all since it is powered all the way up to its final destination & can therefore manoeuvre while descending as well. That’s why it is liquid-fuelled, unlike solid-fuelled ballistic missiles. And since Prithvi is optimised for area saturation & not for pinpoint strike, incorporation of RLG-INS for the solid-fuelled Prithvi-3 ballistic missile is required for in-flight navigation.

To RAD: Agni-3, Agni-4 & Agni-5 were all flown out to the southwestern portion of the waters off Sumatra’s western coastline. Monitoring the test-firings of such missiles by the US & China poses no threat at all & on the contrary, works to India’s benefit since there’s conclusive evidence that such missiles do indeed function as advertised, thereby adding to the credibility of the deterrent value of such missiles. China does issue NOTAMs as do other countries as well. All airborne radars can be jammed, provided there’s enough jamming power available on the ground or on board a warship. No island has been given or offered by Myanmar to China, rest assured. These are all rumours being spread. HELINA will have MMW seeker. The version of HELINA test-fired had an IIR seeker. Nest test-firing of Nirbhay should take place next month. Satellite tracking vessels are required by those countries whose launch centres are in the northern hemisphere.
To ROHIT: The ROC’s AH-64 Apaches are used for anti-invasion strikes, i.e. targetting LSMs & LCUs used for ferrying in armoured vehicles. The Apaches will therefore be employed all along the coastline of Taiwan & mostly over water in the Taiwan Straits. In India’s case, attack helicopters are reqd by both the IAF & IA for two different purposes: the IAF will use them for tactical low-level interdiction as well as for combat search-and-rescue; while the IA will use them for detecting & engaging hostile armoured vehicles ahead of & on the flanks of friendly armoured formations; as well as for close air-support. Therefore, what the IA requires are up to 140 LAHs (derived from the LCH). IN requires at least 28 P-8Is. BrahMos-A/Mini won’t go on board any US-built platform.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: No, not for India, since they will only further complicate the IN’s existing fleet logistics system. But such surplus hardware can definitely be exported at throwaway prices to the likes of Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka & Vietnam. Actually, in terms of delivery schedules, GSL’s track-record is byfar the best among all other MoD-owned shipyards! Nor can MDL be blamed when the IN’s Naval Design Bureau decides to modify the P-15A DDG’s design by a record 2,300 times! In terms of shortages, what India requires most is at least another Project 971A Shchuka-B SSGN, to be used purely for surveillance & fleet monitoring (i.e. non-combatant) purposes. Now, given India’s support for Russia regarding the Crimean issue, it will make sense now for India to request Russia to part with one of its existing Project 971A Shchuka-B SSGN & lease it to the IN for a 5-year period (no more). Meanwhile, details are emerging about the crafty ways of the former CNS Admiral (Ret’d) Nirmal Verma & how he had tried to manipulate the succession line. It now seems that if the MoD were to select an officer as the next CNS who will be able to serve at least a three-year term, then Vice Admiral Lamba becomes the favourite & if this happens, then the next-in-line to succeed him will be the younger brother of Nirmal Verma. No wonder Nirmal Verma had unsuccessfully tried (but almost succeeded) two years ago to prevent naval aviators & submariners from becoming the CNS. Fucking crafty & devious, to say the very least. Lastly, the BJP’s election manifesto released yesterday says that the BJP will allow 49% FDI in the military-industrial sector.

To Anon@11.59PM: It should be inducted, no doubt about that. But whether it will be or not cannot be known at this stage.

To SREENIVAS R: For nuclear warhead-armed cruise missiles too, a high degree of accuracy is reqd for both terrain recognition, especially when the missile is cruising at a height of 50 metres ASL. Therefore, SAR seeker is used mostly for en route navigational accuracy & not for terminal homing. This also explains the wattage difference. For pinpoint strikes against land targets & warships, the SAR seeker is reqd to ‘profile’ the target, i.e. act as a profiling radar. That’s why even the Novator 3M-14E Club-S/N LCAM also uses the ARGS-14E SAR seeker. Consequently, the Nirbhay can morphe into various versions by being equipped with different types of SAR seekers each with their customised target recognition algorithms, just like the Klub-N/S family. One version of Nirbhay can be equipped with 170 W SAR seeker for nuclear strikes, while the other two versions of conventionally-armed Nirbhay can be equipped with 300 W SAR seekers for attacking land or maritime targets, i.e. as LACM or ASCM.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: Not 62-cal version of Dhanush, but the ATAGS, will be an all-new design, but will incorporate various components of Dhanush. And ATAGS is at least another 6 years away as far as prototype development goes. The Bharat-52 is available right now & can be put to production over the next 2 years.

To WHO CARES: As of now, only the air-launched LRCM has been funded for R & D. But in future, shorter-range versions can be developed for use as ASCMs. Estimated weight will be the same as that of the MBDA-developed ANS ASCM of 1990s vintage.

To EX-INTELLIGENCE & RAJEEV CHATURVEDI: The IAF has fully operational simulators for both the C-130J-30 & C-17A. That was part of the FMS deal.

To GESSLER, RAJEEV CHATURVEDI, ANUP, REDDY & RAD: Based on eye-witness accounts, the ill-fated C-130J-30 Super Hercules was on fire while it was in a nosedive. What this means is that there was a fire on-board, which somehow resulted in total loss of hydraulic power, which in turn meant that all control surfaces went kaput. And since the aircraft was cruising at a low-level (not terrain-hugging), it went into a sudden nose-dive & even increasing engine throttles at that stage wouldn’t have helped stabilise the airframe & would have made the situation even worse. It is definitely a case of human negligence, but not of the aircrew & this means the ground crew & its MRO practices/schedules will have to be investigated. Accidents/disasters never happen all of a sudden. Instead, they’re always triggered by a sequence of events & one error leads to another until the fatal crash. However, since the tail section was relatively intact means that the DFDR & CVR have all been successfully recovered & will greatly assist in the accident investigation. In addition, since the Super Hercules was acquired through the FMS channel, i.e. it was the USAF & not Lockheed Martin that sold the aircraft to the IAF, the USAF too will send its investigations team & data retrieval from the DFDR & CVR will in all probability be done by the USAF in the US, i.e. no cover-ups & everyone can rest assured that the results of the Board of Enquiry will be made public by the US side, unlike the MoD which prefers to keep such matters under wraps, much to the detriment of flight safety causes.

Reddy said...

Thanks Prasun for your replies.
But the Prime and Prized defence assets are being lost just like aged leaves which is quite heartening to see and digest.
Why this incompetency?
Not being trained? Not being serious? Or just plain thick skin due to sarkaari(Govt) job?, where even for less marks people can get into educational institutes, even with 35% pass marks people get into jobs, promoted based on religion/caste, where these sorts of things never existed any where in the world... incredible India...

Raj said...

The problem is "chalta hai attitude" of everyone.

No respect to protocols, no focus on improving one's skills day by day, no respect to government's property.

There has to be some serious safety audit of entire military force, not only of Air Force and Navy but all branches.

BTW, BJP Manifesto is not out yet. Only guessing game going on in media right now. Its expected in coming week.

rad said...

Hi Prasun
It is new to me that only northern hemisphere sat launches need ships to track them. Is it only during launch or even after wards.
If i remember a Helina was tested once with MMW radar and there was a lot of hullabaloo about the achievement.
The flight path of the k-4 that was depicted by you ie from the odisha coast to the tip of andamans is hardly 1000kms . The k-4 went to 2000 km which nears the tip of Indonesia please explain.Does china have a base for SIGINT ELINT like we have in Madagascar in the IOR or nearby. If we can have a station in Madagascar why not the chinese with all their money ad influence.

Who Cares said...

Thanks Prasun,
Some more queries. Request you to answer.
1) Where is Prahaar. The much touted rocket by DRDO, seems to be totally absent in recent defence discussions. Has the Project been shelved?
2) After the 60km Pinaka 2, is 120 kms Pinaka also in pipeline? Any prototype timelines?
3)OFB was supposed to increase the Pinaka rocket capacity from 1k to 5k. Is it work in process and when is it expected to increase?
4)Has the tungsten shortage issue over?

sujoymajumdar said...

Prasun Da ,

In the ongoing DIMDEX 2014 , the AMI International Analyst said that the the naval defence market in the Middle East is a booming industry .

http://www.gulf-times.com/Mobile/Eco.-Bus.%20News/256/details/385819/Nakilat-has-world-class-expertise-to-%E2%80%98meet-shipbuilding-industry-needs%E2%80%99


(1) Is it true that the MiD East market is booming ?

(2)If yes, what hardware are these Gulf states planning to purchase ?

(3) How good is AMI International when it comes to making such analysis ?

I found this URL related to civilian jet liners . Some interesting points

http://viralquake.com/2014/03/24/30-pilots-and-flight-attendants-confess-the-best-kept-secrets-you-dont-know-about-flying/

Many Thanks,

Sujoy

Ex Intelligence said...

Prasun ,

Nirmal Verma is only the sympton and not the disease .

Truth is a number of Naval, AF and Army officers uses the junior officers/soldiers as their personal servants . These junior officers/soldiers spend most of their time doing menial jobs for their seniors .

Consequently , they neither develop the skills nor the attributes to become a leader . Nepotism is therefore the order of the day .

The senior officers have no knowledge of the job either . They spend most of their time lobbying with the Government for positions of ambassadors / consulars / attaches in Western countries .

Vikram Guha said...

Thank You Prasun Da .

2300 fixes means a tremendous number of fixes . Not sure why these people at the IN's Naval Design Bureau behave in such an amateurish way . A number of these guys are supposed to have passed out from US NAVAL WAR COLLEGE among other such great institutions .

Also , I fail to understand why did they start working on Project 15B when there are so many fixes to be made in Project 15A itself.

Thanks again ,

Vikram

Vikrant said...

Sir,
1)Has the contract for follow on c-130s been signed or as usual Antonyji balked at signing?
BTW I did like it when Modi taunted 'AK'Antony in his recent rally deserves brickbats for his incompetence and i hope he gets his share of it.
2)What is the current status of scorpene program and will those subs carry exocets?

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
thanks for the details. I did not know that SAR is used also for navigation other than homing. Won't such emissions compromise the stealth of the mission. Another aspect, that you told that supersonic missiles cannot fly in a terrain hugging mode so LRCM may actually fly at the heights currently used by Brahmos.

Sreenivas R

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1. Is the K-4 going to carry an MIRV payload ? Otherwise, 4 K-4's per submarine looks too little.

2. If March 24, 2014 was the second test firing, when was the first ? the earlier tests Sandeep Unnithan mentioned around 2010 were just gas generator/underwater ejection tests as far as I recall.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To REDDY & RAJ: This is what happens when character-building at a national-level isn’t done. Soon after independence the country’s first PM, instead of focusing on this aspect, instead became a global preacher of non-violence, etc until India’s military forces had to dump all such bleeding liberalistic bullshit & invade Goa & Hyderabad, thereby throwing the UN charter into the trash-can & inviting a global blowback from the rest of the world. Had this PM even bothered to study the strategems of visionaries like Chanakya, such mistakes would not have been made. Since then, this concept of ‘ahimsa’ & ‘satyagraha’ has morphed into arson, anarchy, vandalism, hartals, etc, all of which have only caused enormous damage to the public exchequer/property. Such tendencies have today gone out of control & frequently tend to openly challenge the writ of the law of the land, hence the incompetency. Leadership is all about evolving a vision & then evolving a roadmap to realise the vision. Without a top-down approach, all elements of a country can never be harnessed towards realising the national objectives. An example here will illustrate whether or not the average Indian citizen is productive or not. During WW-1, the most industrious & productive human resources for the Britush & Commonwsealth Army were the Indian soldiers. Why? Because they stuck to a diet of freshly cooked rice, lentils & chapatti & therefore never suffered from stomach disorders. The Brits, Aussies & Kiwis on the other hand relied on canned food (MREs) & were therefore susceptible to diseases like dyssentry & diarrhea. As a result, the Indian soldiers were always available for a fight, & they fought well & were the best in terms of upkeep of artillery weapons. And their Caucasian officers recognized such traits & rewarded them, applauded their gallantry, but made them fight hard as well, i.e. the love-and-kick tactic, which worked quite well right uptill the mutinies since 1945.

Regretably, today, Idiots like Jaswant Singh & L K Advani & Murli Manohar Joshi, who in their twilight years ought to act as mentors for the junior leadership cadre, are however, intoxicated with the urge to cling on to power way beyond their productive years, & thus they truly deserve to be kicked out unceremoniously & with maximum/extreme prejudice.

To RAD: The MMW seeker is still undergoing laboratory-level refinements & has NEVER been test-fired. What was test-fired was an inert round of IIR-guided Nag to try to validate the launch mechanism, from the Rudra helicopter-gunship. No one has ever said so far that the K-4 attained a range of 2,000km during the last test-firing. All newspaper reports stated that the K-4 has range of more than 2,000km. China does not as yet possess any SIGINT facility anywhere in the Horn of Africa.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To WHO CARES: 1) Yes, R & D on the WMD-armed version of Prahaar NLOS-BSM has been terminated because the Govt of India has decided that India does not require any tactical nuclear weapons. 2) Nope. 120mm-range MBRL will be the Smerch-M & its present 90km-range rockets will be replaced by 120km-range rounds & they will be of Russian origin & be licence-built by OFB. 3) That production capacity will be attained not before 2016. 4) Yes, once the 125mm APFSDS rounds start arriving from Russia.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: VMT. 1) Of course, for as long as crude oil prices stay above US$100 a barrel. 2) Everything that one can think of. But Qatar & Oman are heavily interested in procuring some hardware from India, especially NOPVs. 3) It has got a mixed track-record thus far.

To VIKRAM GUHA: This has been happening because: 1) The Naval Design Bureau’s warships are not vetted by a peer group/specialist consultant. Thus, there is a lot of second-guessing especially when lots of sub-systems have to be imported & their exact volume-requirements can’t be ascertained until the hardware is actually installed. 2) Since defence expenditure is under the non-plan category, orders for on-board sub-systems are never placed as scheduled & indents are placed in a haphazard manner. Consequently, such hardware tend to arrive in an uncoordinated manner & keep gathering dust at the shipyard. And when they’re finally installed, in many cases their warranty period has expired & this then causes industrial accidents like the one witnessed on board the INS Kolkata. As of last month, all the elevators for Project 71 IAC-1 had arrived & are presently gathering dust since installation cannot take place due to the non-availability of another piece of hardware. Also as of last month, the IN had not even selected the supplier of the IAC-1’s hull-mounted panoramic sonar & its fibre-glass type of sonar dome, leave alone ordering it.

To VIKRANT: 1) Signed last January. 2) Still undergoing hull fabrication. 36 SM-39 Exocets have been ordered for the six Scorpenes.

To SREENIVAS R: SAR seekers are activated only intermittently & for very brief periods & that too over terrain where there are no ELINT stations or air-defence radars. In addition, the terrain to be overflown is carefully screened through prior radar fingerprinting. Furthermore, terrain-masking is resorted to during cruise flight. Therefore, chances of being detected through passive surveillance systems are extremely remote, except during the terminal flight stage. Regarding LRCM< yes, it will cruise at an altitude of 13km/16km during its cruise phase.

To Anon@11.08AM: 1) Not, not at this stage. 2) There was another one sometime in mid-2012.

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