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Saturday, April 11, 2015

Taking The Final Call On What Was Originally Proposed By France On February 20, 2006

Chronology Of The M-MRCA Procurement Saga

Indian Air Force (IAF) formulates its Air Staff Qualitative Requirement (ASQR) for medium multi-role combat aircraft (M-MRCA) in the late 1990s.

* Request for Information (RFI) for 126 M-MRCAs, with an option for another 63, issued in late 2001. 
* Dassault Aviation offers to supply 40 Rafale M-MRCAs to the IAF in a single-source G-to-G deal. The offer is made by Charles Edelstenne, the then CEO of Dassault Aviation, when he calls on the then Minister of State for Defence Rao Inderjit Singh in New Delhi on February 20, 2006. The IAF’s then Deputy Chief of the Air Staff Air Marshal A K Nangalia is also present at this meeting. Edelstenne is part of the entourage of the then visiting French President Jacques Chirac.
* Issuance of a Request for Proposals (RFP) was planned for December 2005. However, the formal 211-page RFP is released only on August 28, 2007. The RFP contains single-stage two-bid system criterion (separate quotes for the technical and for commercial evaluation forming part of the submissions from various concerned OEMs). Bidders are given a time-frame of six months to respond to the RFP by March 2008. The RFP includes a direct industrial offsets obligation of 50%, raised from the original official requirement of 30% as contained in the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) Defence Procurement Procedures of 2006. The RFP states that the IAF will initially acquire of 86 single-seat and 40 two-seat M-MRCAs, and retain the option to acquire another 63 M-MRCAs at a future date. Of the 126, 12 single-seaters and six tandem-seaters are required to be supplied off-the-shelf in flyaway condition, while the remaining 108 are to be licence-built in India. This will include 74 single-seaters and 34 tandem-seaters, of which 11 will be built from semi-knocked down (SKD) kits, 31 will be built from completely knocked down (CKD) kits, and 66 made from indigenously manufactured kits (IMK).

By late May 2009, the IAF’s Technical Evaluation Committee (TEC) concludes its technical and staff evaluations of the RFP responses from the six bidders.

* Sequential in-country flight evaluations of all six contenders begin in mid-August 2009 and continue through to May 2010. Two teams of IAF test-pilots conduct the flight evaluations at Bengaluru, Leh and Jaisalmer. Besides possessing cold-weather terrain, Leh is a high-altitude location, while Jaisalmer is a desert area where hot winds blow. Planning for the trial schedule began in early 2009, with the IAF test-pilots being trained at the respective bidder’s country of origin to fly the aircraft, under Phase-1. Phase-2 calls for flight-trials in Indian airspace and in Phase-3, the six M-MRCA contenders are run through a series of tests to check the efficacy of their guided-munitions by firing them at firing ranges located within the respective bidder’s country of origin.
* All six flight evaluation reports, duly vetted by the Technical Oversight Committee (TOC), are completed by mid-July 2010.

In April 2011, the IAF shortlists Dassault Aviation’s Rafale and Eurofighter GmbH’s EF-2000 Typhoon.
* On January 31, 2012, the MoD announces that the Rafale has been selected as the IAF’s new-generation M-MRCA and estimates that contractual negotiations should be completed by October 2012 by the MoD’s Commercial Negotiations Committee (CNC) after receiving approvals from the Competent Financial Authority (CFA).
* On April 10, 2015, the Govt of India formally requests both the French government and Dassault Aviation to supply on a G-to-G basis 36 Rafales (32 single-seaters and four tandem-seaters) as soon as possible, subject to contract negotiations for these 34 Rafales being successfully concluded within a 90-day period. Concurrently, supplementary contracts will be inked with SNECMA Moteurs for two spare M88 turbofans, with Dassault Aviation for ground-support hardware for first- and second-line MRO, with THALES for a cockpit procedures trainer and a full-flight tactical training simulator, with MBDA for the guided-weapons package, and with Dassault Aviation for a maintenance training simulator.
Eventually, in the fullness of time, the IAF will end up with 189 Rafale M-MRCAs. That's a given. But the negotiations had got stuck over the cost of licenced-production of the 108 units. India was haggling over the labour cost parameters that are graded from 1 to 10. While the Russians had obtained Grade 6 for the Su-30MKI licenced-production programme, the French were asking for 8, while the Indians wanted it to be limited to 7. So, in the end, a compromise was struck under which India would order 36 Rafales off-the-shelf without any offsets of any kind and the French in turn would tone down their stance & come down to 7. Therefore, in nett terms, the French have won and India’s illogical negotiating shortsightedness (from 2012 till now) has been fully exposed. And NaMo too has realised at last that there are clear technological and human resource limits to how far the ‘Make in India’ mantra can be flogged. And this deal for 36 Rafales was conceived entirely by Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and was fully endorsed by the PMO. Everyone else was in the dark on this issue. If 153 Rafales can be similarly ordered in successive tranches, then that will be the ideal solution. Because paying an exorbitant price for the so-called licenced-production of Rafales just to keep a few thousand employees of HAL gainfully employed for the next 20 years DOES NOT stand up to logic. Nor does such licenced-production lead to self-reliance of any kind anywhere. Far better therefore to utilise the money saved for the Tejas Mk2/LCA (Navy) Mk2 R & D effort, where at least 80% indigenisation can be expected in all domains except for the propulsion system.


‘Make in India’ For Rafale Has Already Begun
As for those ‘desi’ journalists claiming that the off-the-shelf procurement/s of the Rafale M-MRCA will pose a huge setback to the Govt of India’s ‘Make in India’ industrial promotion policy, the poster below shows just how totally wrong these ‘desi’ journalists are. They obviously did not do their homework during the Aero India 2015 expo last February!  

Ukraine-Origin Products On-Board Su-30MKI
When the Soviet Union dissolved in late 1991, Ukraine was left with about 30% of the Soviet-era military-industrial facilities on its territory, including about 750 factories and 140 scientific and technical institutions. Presently, 300 enterprises, institutions and organisations  employing more than 250,000 people are producing military equipment in Ukraine. Of these, 75 are registered as manufacturers of military products and services that are subject to state secrecy, including rocket and guided-missile technologies. 
The state holding company Ukroboronprom, established in 2010, oversees 134 Ukrainian state-owned military-industrial enterprises that employ 120,000 workers. Ukraine exports the rest, in the amount of US$1.3 billion worth of arms annually, which made Ukraine the eighth-largest weapons exporter in the world between 2009 and 2013. Ukroboronprom’s sales reached US$1.79 billion in 2013, an increase of 17% in 2012. Russia was the third-largest buyer of Ukraine-origin military hardware from 2009 to 2013, after the PRC and Pakistan. 
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Ukroboronprom decided to halt all exports of weaponry and military-industrial hardware to Russia, whose outstanding orders from Ukraine in the civilian and defence sectors were at that time valued at more than US$15 billion. Terminating these contracts has adversely affected 79 Ukrainian and 859 Russian military-industrial firms. Ukrainian exports represent only a small fraction—between 4% and 7%—of Russia’s overall military imports. The number of buyers of Ukraine’s nuclear and ballistic missile technologies is fairly small but includes the PRC, North Korea, Syria, and Iran. PRC and North Korean agents have on several occasions been caught attempting to break into YUZHMASH for trying to acquire long-range ballistic missile technologies.
Ukraine’s total arms exports have been growing steadily, from US$20 million in 1994 to US$600 million in 1997 and US$1.5 billion in 2001. In 2002 the Industrial Policy Ministry of Ukraine and China’s Commission for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) signed a protocol on cooperation in the military-industrial arena. Ukraine’s present-day weapons shipments to China in 2002 amounted to a mere US$50 million a year.  In 2002, Ukraine became the world’s fourth-largest weapons exporter and sold weapons and military technologies to China worth US$700 million, which accounted for 31% of Ukrainian exports that year. In 2011, 43% of Ukraine-built weapons were sold to the PRC, while in 2013 Ukraine became the PRC’s second-largest trade partner in the CIS, while China became Ukraine’s biggest military customer in Asia.

307 comments:

1 – 200 of 307   Newer›   Newest»
Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-France-joint-statement/articleshow/46882101.cms

Government of India conveyed to the Government of France that in view of the critical operational necessity for Multirole Combat Aircraft for Indian Air Force, Government of India would like to acquire 36 Rafale jets in fly-away condition as quickly as possible. The two leaders agreed to conclude an Inter-Governmental Agreement for supply of the aircraft on terms that would be better than conveyed by Dassault Aviation as part of a separate process underway; the delivery would be in time-frame that would be compatible with the operational requirement of IAF; and that the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force, and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France.

ASHIRBAD PANDA said...

Bases likely to host des planes?

Akash said...

Sir,Deliveries will begin after 36 months.Thats a long enough time period. IAF needs acs now and if we wait a bit longer we can have Tejas mk2 and T-50 which will enter service by 2022.

and any news on contrct of 2 IL-76 based Phalcon awacs and 3 aerostat based radars ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Ambala AFS & Gwalior AFS.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKASH: By 2022? From where did you get that figure? It is 2025 at the earliest for FGFA & Tejas Mk2. So what happens between 2018 & 2025? If the Govt of India is smart enough, then the process of operational flight conversion can start within the next 8 months at Ambala AFS if France agrees to lease 12 French Air Force Rafales to the IAF for a 36-month period pending the arrival of the IAF-specific Rafales.

Anonymous said...

Prasun da,

Sorry, if i am lame...

but please tell me how many are on order,

36 or 63

or 108+36

still no clarity...

Sreenivas R

Part of the System said...

That statement requires interpretation. ..is it 36, 36+108 or 126-36. Either way it has shown that there's Stategic space for leaders to exercise pol will inspite of beaurocracy and muddled negotiations!Interesting development though.

dushyant hardaha said...

http://idrw.org/will-take-legal-recourse-if-govt-goes-ahead-with-rafale-deal-subramanian-swamy/
dr swamy lost his mental balance

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The press-release is VERY CLEAR: 36 Rafales to be procured in flyaway condition, i.e. off-the-shelf directly from Dassault Aviation. This is totally OUTSIDE the earlier contract under negotiations for 126 Rafales. To be remembered is that the TOTAL REQUIREMENT for Rafales is 126 + 63 as options as mentioned in the RFP. Therefore, instead of exercising the 126 option first, decision has been taken to exercise the 63 option, i.e. first buy 36 readymade Rafales, & ink another supplementary contract next year or in 2017 for another 27 that will be probably be supplied in semi-knocked-down condition for final assembly in India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: He went off his rocker a long time back. Therefore the question of losing his mental balance/equilibrium doesn't even arise: he never did have the intellect for productive usage. His political carrier since its inception has been characterised by short-term deal-makings & deal-breakings, i.e. only spreading destructive chaos.

Rituraj said...

Prasun,

This deal doesn't clarify what is happening behind. The joint statement talks about 36 off the shelf purchase which is strange because India doesn't get any TOT in that. Will it qualify for offsets in anyway - 30% or 50% as per the DPP? Will India get GaN tech for radar, Spectra and mission computer source codes? What about the weapons like WVR/BVR/LGBs?

What will happen to the original tender of 126? Will HAL have any role or it is going to the private sector?

What justifies this hurry for G-to-G tender? I also find MoU between Areva and L&T for component manufacturing for EPR. Are they going to allow RPV manufacturing by L&T?

Please detail the pull factors for this extraordinary step. What is driving Mr Modi and is MR Parrikar on board?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RITURAJ: This deal does not involve any offsets of any kind, direct or indirect. Why should it? The offsets package for the 126 option has already been negotiated & finalised & some of it like construction of wiring harnesses has already begun.

GaN tech can be acquired only after India acquires her own semiconductor foundry. And to acquire such technologies one has to first expand within the civilian consumer electronics industry to create economies of scale. No one in this world at least in their right mind will go for semiconductor foundries just for the sake of making processor chips for seekers or radars. That's why the RFP never even mentioned such items as part of the offsets package.

As for the original 126 option, LOGIC suggests that it be discarded in toto since it does not bring in any kind of value-added benefit to India. However, as part of direct industrial offsets, a large quantum of rotables, consumables, lubricants & additives can be manufactured locally with the help of industrial manufacturing know-how being transferred from French private-sector OEMs to their Indian counterparts.

Why this hurry? Don't you know exactly how many MiG-21 Bisons, MiG-27UPGs & MiG-27Ms will have to be decommissioned in 2017 after the expiry of their total technical service lives?

AREVA will help L & T in the arena of forgings required for the France-supplied nuclear power-generating reactors at Jaitapur.

Rituraj Rao said...

So we don't even get engine ToT, SPECTRA or source codes for mission computers in this deal or later?

What is the price being agreed upon?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RITURAJ RAO: Source-codes will be provided & shared for sure. But what exactly is your definition & belief & assumptions regarding engine ToT? What according to you constitutes engine ToT? If you spell them out I will be able to explain whether it is possible, or whether anyone has engaged in such technology-sharing with any country thus far.

Mayur M Manapure said...

Sir, don't u think Yemen is a perfect example of carelessness of Indians. According to MEA , advisory was issued in January to leave Yemen but still more than 5000 unnecessarily risked their as well as Lives of armed forces personnel who were their yo evacuate them.
And I think Subramaniam Swamy should be sent to a foreign research institute for study on his brain. He is a complete Looney.

MR said...

Prasunda, looks like there is some uncanny connection between the new announcement and this news that France is suspending the delivery of 36 Rafales to Qatar. This deal may give some breathing space for Dassault to wrap up the TOT and offset negotiations while addressing IAF's force depletion problem.



Gessler said...

So, Prasunji, we would eventually end up with 189 Rafales or 63 Rafales?

Bhaswar said...

@Prasun Da,

The prevailing (and erroneous) notion prevalent among many people is that the Rafale deal would bring "ToT" of the kind in the engine sector which would help Indian build its own cutting edge engines. Of course, this was and remains hogwash. People still do not understand what ToT means, perhaps if reporters and agencies concerned would take to calling it M-ToT (which is what it is) and spell out exactly how they will never part with the know why even if in rare cases they part with the know how, then perhaps things can be clearer for the ordinary folks.

Similar situation prevails in terms of radar technology, with people assuming that Thales will somehow equip us with the knowledge required to build our own radars. I remember talking to an executive from the Thales Group back in 2010 (we were fortunate enough to get passes for the business day when the execs were actually present- and most them had a rather sour expression on their faces- I believe the Dassault fellow had grown sore while distributing rafale lapel pins like some common street vendor)- anyway, he was rather amused by the notion that Thales would be "transferring technology for TRMs" as one enterprising fellow asked him.

On point- we have done well to go with a straight G2G deal. Hopefully we will not dilly dally and sign the second tranch deal too.

Could you elaborate on what " the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force, and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France" actually entails?

CommomCense said...

Hi Prasun
Finally ! something to cheer abt..right ?
I see a lot of big decisions taken by the currt govt (PM and RM)and that's very good too see

Ne good decisions are being taken on the ground level (guns bulletproof vest thermal imaging etc) for the commom foot soldier ?

very exited by the govt decisions for my country :)


Jay Bhanushali said...

Sir, Will the indian rafales be F3 or F3R standard?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JAY BHANUSHALI: The same standard as what's now being series-produced by Dassault Aviation.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MR: When exactly did Qatar order any Rafales??? Any press-release from Dassault Aviation to this effect?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BHASWAR: Very well-explained indeed on the ToT chimera.

The IAF's Rafales will have some customer-furnished hardware on-board, like TACAN & IFF. In addition, the IAF Rafales will use Litening LDPs & Griffin-3 LGBs, which would require integration. That's what was meant by: " the aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration as had been tested and approved by Indian Air Force, and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France"

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To COMMONCENSE: Not yet. This is just the first step. Further recourse to logical reasoning & common-sense is required. The next LOGICAL decision should be to authorise, after selection on a competitive bidding basis, a winning consortium of private-sector companies, to tie-up with Dassault Aviation, THALES, SNECMA Moteurs & MBDA for the sake of offering guaranteed through-life product-support & future upgrade options for this Rafale M-MRCA fleet. And since the Rafale, unlike other combat aircraft, does not require depot-level MRO, the IAF too should be instructed not to insist on doing any such work on any of its BRDs. 1st & 2nd line MRO can be done within the air base itself, while 3rd line MRO reqmts will be met by the consortium of private-sector companies that will also be required to set up bonded warehouses for stockpiling of all rotables & consumables, which in turn will ensure high levels of aircraft serviceability/availability rates.

Without the above, India will end up with a deal similar to what's been done with the Su-30MKI, i.e. a totally quarter-baked indigenisation process that in the months ahead will pose a severe headache for the IAF, since Ukraine is in a semi-meltdown status & product-support from that country will be unavailable at best. Will upload the list of items supplied by Ukraine for the Su-30MKI later tonight to fully illustrate the enormity of the problem.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: Eventually, in the fullness of time, the IAF will end up with 189 Rafale M-MRCAs. That's a given. But the negotiations had got stuck over the cost of licenced-production of the 108 units. India was haggling over the labour cost parameters that are graded from 1 to 10. While the Russians had obtained Grade 6 for Su-30MKI, the French were asking for 8, while the Indians wanted it to be limited to 7. So, in the end, a compromise was struck under which India would order 36 Rafales off-the-shelf without any offsets of any kind & the French in turn would tone down their stance & come down to 7. Therefore, in nett terms, the French have won & India’s illogical negotiating shortsightedness (from 2012 till now) has been fully exposed. And NaMo too has realised at last that there are clear technological & human resource limits to how far the ‘Make in India’ mantra can be flogged. And this deal for 36 Rafales was conceived entirely by Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley & was fully endorsed by NaMo. Everyone else was in the dark on this issue. If 153 Rafales can be similarly ordered in successive tranches, then that will be the ideal solution. Because paying an exorbitant price for the so-called licenced-production of Rafales just to keep a few thousand employees of HAL gainfully employed for the next 20 years DOES NOT stand up to logic. Nor does such licenced-produiction lead to self-reliance of any kind anywhere. Far better therefore to utilize the money saved for the Tejas Mk2/LCA (Navy) Mk2 R & D effort, where at least 80% indigenisation can be expected in all domains except for the propulsion system.

G said...

What has happened to the VVIP Copper AW101 that is already inducted to IAF? is it being used or mothballed?

Mayur Manapure said...

Does it get any better PrasunDa
http://www.dawn.com/news/1175284/uae-warns-pakistan-of-heavy-price-for-ambiguous-stand-on-yemen

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MAYUR MANAPURE: LoooooLzzzzzz!!!

Clearly it is 'Come-to-Allah' time for Pakistan now. Time to take sides, instead of sitting on the fence. Even though the Yemen crisis is purely an inter-Arab problem that needs to be resolved by the Arab League hand-in-hand with the GCC member-countries, Pakistan has over the years tied itself up in knots by tracing its so-called 1,000-year history to the Arabian invasion of Sindh. Well, if that's the case, then clearly Pakistan cannot remain a fence-sitter anymore. Turkey can, since its economic well-being is dependent on its civilisational links with Europe & northern Eurasia. But Pakistan's economic survival is now totally dependent on the GCC, since US economic aid too has already dried up. The Arabs from GCC know this & are are by no means fools; they're very cunning negotiators & are therefore now upping the ante. Pakistan now has to think what will happen to the 25 lakh Pakistanis presently employed throughout the GCC. Is baar Pakistan toh bilkul phas gaya.

Mayur M Manapure said...

Even 'Allah' cannot save Pakistan from the mess its decision makers has got her into....
I remember that Song from a movie..
" Allah Bachaye meri jaan.... Ki Raziya gundo mein fass gayi".....this raziya is going nowhere..
On a serious note... Is there a Mutual understanding between Iran and India w.r.t Baluchistan?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Not just WRT Balochistan, but also WRT Central Asia. If the nuclear deal with Iran is ratified by all concerned parties, the subsequent relaxation of financial embargoes will enable the Iranians to spend greater resources on consolidating their civilisational influences in Central Asia & also inside Afghanistan. Consequently, it is now inevitable that there will be friction between Teheran & Islamabad. That's why Pakistan took the unusual step of according an official welcome to the Iranian Foreign Minister at the GHQ in Rawalpindi, followed by an official meeting with the PA's COAS. Needless to say, the Pakistani officialdom is extremely nervous about the re-emergence of Iran as a regional power.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Watch this:

Lt Gen Asad Durrani, the former head of the ISI, Pakistan's notorious spy agency, on its role in the "War on Terror":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z__lyS-wI7c&hd=1

Abhay Jain said...

sir,

Najam sethy here says that eventually have to send troops in the conflict. They are already feeling the heat. very nice discussions.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2mdvd2_aapas-ki-baat-11th-april-2015_news

Bhaswar said...

@Prasun Da,

It might be too optimistic to hope for further decisions along the lines of this one. Let us remember that this was not the result of a well thought out higher defence management strategy, this was not something that we did willingly, we were pushed into it and our administration gave into the exigency. I fear that we may see perhaps a single follow up order perhaps for another odd 30 jets- placed far too late and at naturally higher price. Also it might be too much to hope r for the GOI to set its well known proclivities aside and actually plan for proper MRO- Honb. PM Narendra Modi may be the different but he isn't showing himself to be that radically different from the usual lot, different in a better way indeed but not radically. The old habits and notions of the MoD are likely to take over again once this bright moment fades, that's been the perpetual case (remember the type-209 sub saga).

The current government has not conducted a strategic review yet. It has plans and visions but is it running as per a properly formed strategy as opposed to a reactionary and piece meal system of dealing with challenges- or a strategy built without first taking a comprehensive stock of the situation. We still don't have a nuclear doctrine beyond a draft for god's sake. And you seem to have become more optimistic with the years (certainly not as cutting as you could be when I first came across this blog in 08).

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ABHAY JAIN: Do read this:

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/pakistans-yes-no-question/

To BHASWAR: I've already explained above in the narrative uploaded earlier today what this 'interim' order is all about. The haggling was over the 7 & 8 positions of the two negotiating parties & none of the two was willing to budge an inch. Hence the decision to order 36 Rafales, which will cost just as much as the DIFFERENTIAL between 7 & 8. Consequently, the French will be satisfied & scale down to 7, since in any case they have realised their financial goals by bagging the order for the 36 Rafales.

Of course it goes without saying that Indian lethargy & intransigence created all this mess. France after all cannot be blamed for the depreciation of the Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the Euro or US$. So, the longer negotiations & hagglings continue, the greater the cost escalation. This impasse had to be broken & has now been broken. Blame for this sordid state of affairs lies squarely on the shoulders of the UPA-1/UPA-2 govts. Had UPA-1 taken up the French offer for 40 Rafales way back in February 2006, it would have been far more easier to negotiate with a more flexible French party. Bottomline: the French know only too well exactly how the Indian mindset functions & they therefore wanted to spare India all the headaches when making the offer in February 2006. But the stubborn Indians in their all-knowing wisdom ended up being totally fucked-up.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BHASWAR: And as if that's not enough, here are a bunch of 'desi' journalists rabidly displaying their ignorance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI5qG5Vq1P4

With the exception of the French panelist & Kanwal Sibal, none of the others are talking any sense. Obviously they are unaware of the critical help extended by France for the IRNSS GPS constellation, or about the SSN project that was also discussed between NaMo & President Hollande. It really amazes me how these 'desi' journalists repeatedly fail to connect the dots, thereby utterly failing to comprehend the larger picture.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Super 30’s ASQR was finalized & issued way back in 2011.

To SREENIVAS R: Rest assured, the figure of 189 will eventually be realised.

To RAD: As you may have realised by now, Maitri SR-SAM wasn’t even on the agenda during NaMo’s visit to France. Bottomline: it was a false canard spread by the ‘desi’ journalists.

To TECHNOLOGY, PHOTOGRAPHY & TRAVEL: Wow!!! Picture-perfect Xbox scenario indeed! And pray which OEM will extend the technical service-lives of the MiG-21’s R-11 & R25-300 turbofans & certify them for usage beyond their operational service lives?

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Why should the IA test-fire the BrahMos-1’s Block-3 variant in a maritime scenario? Shouldn’t such firings be conducted by the IN?

To VRP: LoLzzzz! So you reckon that if you possess the workshop to produce Toyata Land Cruisers, that same workshop is perfectly capable of rolling out Range Rovers! Each & every final-assembly line & components production line is unique & specific to a particular aircraft-type. There’s no such thing as a kack-of-all-trades industrial production facility.

To RAVIN: What’s wrong with such a goodwill gesture from Pakistan? During humanitarian relief missions, such gestures from all sides ios always to be welcomed & appreciated.

To PRAV: The DRDO is still a few years away from developing a miniaturised IIR seeker for SHORADS. Even the much larger IIR seeker for the AAD has not yet been perfected.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SPANKY’s BLOG/SWAROP: Since there are some stocks of Dhanush still left over from the previous decade’s production-run, it makes sense to fire them away instead of letting them rot in the warehouses.

As for the northern front, while the tyranny of the terrain in Arunachal Pradesh & Sikkim & the IA’s massive deployed footprints there is enough to deter the PLA from staging any large-scale, coordinated conventional attacks along the LAC, the IA on the other hand lacks the limited expeditionary warfare capability that’s reqd for deterring the PLA from forcibly occupying that patch of Bhutan’s land that Beijing claims as its own. And if Bhutan faces aggression from China, then India by treaty is obligated to militarily defend Bhutan since Bhutan is an Indian protectorate.

On the other hand, given the way Nepal is politically degenerating, it is not to far-fetched to visualise a scenario in which the PLA decides to annex that part of Nepal that enjoys a common boundary with TAR. In such a case, what would India’s options be? Would it just oppose this move diplomatically? Or would it make a counter-move to send military forces in those areas that are habituated by India-origin Nepalese, especially in the Terai region? In both cases (Bhutan & Nepal), what India requires is a Strike Corps with greatly beefed-up air-mobility, i.e. Mi-17V-5s, CH-47Fs, LAHs & LUHs. Therefore, while a highlands-based Strike Corps is reqd by the IA, the way it has gone about it is WRONG. Instead of raising 4 new Divisions, the IA could easily have withdrawn some of its infantry & field artillery formations from its Southern Command in order to raise the new XVII Corps.

To FARIS: 1) Main factors are its higher acquisition cost when compared to those of the Exocet or Harpoon, & the degree of sophistication required in terms of over-the-horizon targetting. 2) It is a periodic refit to check for structural integrity & corrosion, not an upgrade or SLEP. No changes will be made to the propulsion system or CMS. 3) If MESMA is fitted, then obviously the SSK’s acoustic signature will go down dramatically, since it won’t generate as much noise as the diesel engines. 4) With Egypt & now India opting for the Rafale, it now definitely becomes a much more attractive option from a financial standpoint than the EF-2000 Typhoon. But the RMAF is still years away from receiving such M-MRCAs. Given the depressed crude oil export market, Malaysia’s revenue earnings too have taken a big hit & prices are expected to remain depressed for another 3 years. 5) NSM makes sense if the RMN in future wants to standardise its ASCM inventory by acquiring the HSM version of the NSM as well whenever the RMN can lay its hands on medium-lift multi-role shipborne helicopters. If on the other hand the reqmt is just meant for surface combatants, then the RMN should have continued with the MM-40 Exocet. 6) Pakistan has no other choice but to abide by the GCC’s will. Some are now saying that even Malaysia may be asked to contribute boots on the ground. 7) It’s not about checkmating Iran because Iran has a mimimal presence inside Yemen as of now, but all about protecting Saudi Arabia’s southern flank, which has historically been volatile & restive anytime there has been a civil war-like situation inside Yemen. And now with Al Qaeda being firmly entrenched in Yemen, none of the GCC Sheikhdoms, barring Oman, wants to sit tight & take matters for granted. Because today it’s Al Qaeda in Yemen, tomorrow it may morphe into ISIS, eventually leading to Yemen becoming another Somalia.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

It is clear that India & Iran have common interests in Balochistan but I think India want to see Balochistan as independent while Iran has intention to annex it which were made clear by Shah of Iran to Bhutto after 1971 war.

Iranian influence in central asia is no good for India. It can have legitimate influence as neighbour to CIS, but India have to exert its own influence in CIS. India had civilisational influence and friendships in Central Asia & even mentioned in Mahabharata.

I have personal view that India need PoK to maintain that symbolic link unless Pakistan allow us condition free transit.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
I want to know about our discussion with China about border issue. Our NSA is heading indian side. Any insight/comment on the discussion and NSA?
Gourav

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

It has now been proven beyond doubt that this politician called Subramanyam Swamy has lost his marbles & is certifiably SENILE:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0XaUvIdJnI&hd=1

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: India does have civilisational links & very friendly ties with Central Asia, but not any influence. Iran does due to linguistic similarities. India's influence can only increase if geographical linkages are established & this can be done only through the Wakhan Corridor, meaning Gilgit & Baltistan have to be reclaimed/recaptured by India at some point in time. Inshallah that time will come sooner than later.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

Any war between India & China will be war of air power. Please let me know where IAF capability stand today in scenario of Chinese aggression in Bhutan-Tawang or Western sector.

Rituraj said...

Prasun,

1. How will Rafale purchase affect LCA-Tejas Mk-1/MK-2 program?

2. Will HAL have any role in Rafale program in future and will it learn anything from it?

Thanks

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji

No doubt that India need Gilgit Baltistan. question is how?

till date all scenarios i think of are either weak or I believe Indian political establishment may not have guts to do that

Prav said...

Prasun Sir
What is the origin of the L band object tracking radar employed by ISRO ?
http://isrohq.vssc.gov.in/isr0dem0v5a/index.php/technology/reusable-launch-vehicle/74-general/1158-multi-object-tracking-radar-motr

Jon said...

No news as regards additional follow on orders for scorpenes?

3 day visit of North Korean foreign minister? What could possibly be going on here?

Exactly what will L&T be manufacturing for Areva and how significant is it?

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/north-korean-foreign-minister-ri-su-yong-to-visit-india-on-sunday/articleshow/46890616.cms

RD said...

Prasunda,
New technologies are being integrated in Rafale quite frequently which is increasing its value globally-

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Terrain-following_autopilot_capability_eyed_for_Rafale_fighters_999.html

From what we know that France is not working on any 5th generation fighter model (other than neuron ucav) or not yet committed to buy any 5th generation fighter like F-35. Also with the retirement of Mirage in near future the Rafale will be the sole aircraft to perform all duties. It seems the French are quite confident about Rafale for their future.

sujoymajumdar said...

Thanks Prasunda.

So if the ASQR for the Super 30 was released in 2011 why haven't the deliveries started yet? Are the Ruskies once again increasing the price midway through the process?

Thanks,
Sujoy

Mayur M Manapure said...

Sir, the same people who massacred Pandits at their home ,now want to decide when and how should they return...yeh kya baat huyi..and how someone can return to the neighbourhood where his family members were murdered by their own neighbours..

SK said...

Prasun,

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/deal-to-fast-track-jaitapur-n-plant-to-address-technicalities-pricing/articleshow/46896647.cms

Is this deal about Reactor Pressure Vessel manufacturing which India was trying to get from Japan Steel, through nuclear deal?

Also, what is this going on?
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/submarines/2015/04/11/india-japan-submarine-soryu-aip-conventional-technology-transfer/25454669/

I thought Japan was quite eager to sell US-2 and Soryus, now what is this suspicion on India? Same is happening in nuclear deal as well. Suddenly, Australia is safe for Soryu tech transfer but India is not?

BTW any news on French help in SSN development?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SK: The 1,650mW EPRs are quite expensive since they make use of a huge quantum of new technologies. Some of them can be absorbed by Indian industry but most can't due to the exorbitant cost of doing so, & that too for only six EPRs. If, however, the cake is made bigger, i.e. 18 EPRs, then local fabrication through ToT involving licenced-manufacturing becomes financially viable. Hence the recent agreement between AREVA & L & T for the former to share its proprietary industrial forgings know-how with the latter.

It is quite difficult to strike similar deals with Japan because most Japanese know-how in these areas is derived from IPRs of US-origin & therefore Japan's export regulations have to conform to similar US guidelines. Same applies to Japan-developed weaponry, most of which contain several critical components of US origin.

About the Soryu-class SSKs, didn't I state a long time ago that the IN wanted single-hulled SSKs & SSNs? So how can anyone expect the double-hulled Soryu to comply with the IN's NSQRs? Secondly, India can't be on par with Japan or Australia in the international realm because Australia & Japan are alliance/treaty partners of the US & NATO. India is not. Therefore, the really cutting-edge technologies will never be made available to India. Even the Raytheon-supplied search radar on the P-8Is have degraded ISAR resolution compared to that of those radars on board the P-8A Poseidon.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Drafting the vASQR is always the easiest of jobs involving only paperwork. The real challenge begins when one has to 1) go sourcing for airworthy aircraft to serve as flying prototypes; & 2) set up a raft of ground-based flight-test evaluation centres for data analysis & validation of avionics/weapons architecture configuration. These two take a long time to fructify, sometimes as much as 6 years. A flying prototype is only possible if the IAF is willing to lease one of its Su-30MKIs. This was done only last year so that structural integration of the BrahMos-A can get underway. In addition, DARE only last year began issuing RFPs for interested parties to bid for manufacturing structural sub-assemblies for the MSWS suite. If they're delivered this year, then these will have to be installed & subjected to at least 200 hours of flight-tests over a 2-year period. Consequently, the Super 30 upgrade will be certified for usage & series-production only by 2018 at best.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RD; That's what the concept of pre-planned product improvement is all about. The Su-30MKI-to-Super Sukhoi 30 evolution also follows a similar concept.

To JON: Scorpene project was discussed & a supplementary contract for extending the production run from six to a probable 9 will now be negotiated. Perhaps the DPRK wants to formally invite NaMo for a state visit. Wonder how the Us & Japan will react. AREVA will supply industrial forgings know-how to L & T.

To PRAV: It's the same EL/M-2080 Green Pine. But only a fool will use such radars for space debris tracking. For such purposes, coherent X-band precision tracking radars are reqd.

To RITURAJ: Have already explained all that above. HAL will not have much to learn from the Rafale licenced-manufacturing process. However, it will learn much more when doing its homework for establishing its own proprietary production facilities for the Tejas Mk1/Mk2 MRCAs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Account by a PAF pilot, one of 16, that took part as mercenaries in the 1973 Areab-Israeli Yom Kippur War (War of Atonement):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAoONkU4wEw

http://tribune.com.pk/story/855837/50-years-on-memories-of-the-1973-arab-israeli-conflict/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Interesting debate on the plight of Kashmiri Pandit IDPs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcgBSE1Q7MU

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Classic example of how to weave a story without any meat in it, drafted of course by yet another 'desi' journalist thriving in speculation:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/How-Narendra-Modi-reworked-Rafale-deal-and-why-its-a-winner/articleshow/46892688.cms

Jon said...

3 interesting articles I Came across:

http://defencyclopedia.com/2014/12/27/explained-how-the-us-navy-can-shoot-down-the-deadly-brahmos-missile/

http://defencyclopedia.com/2014/09/24/the-great-asian-showdown-indias-kolkata-class-vs-chinas-type-52d-destroyer/

http://defencyclopedia.com/2014/05/17/the-great-indian-nuclear-submarine-saga/

From Lahore said...

All these anti Pakistani comments surprises me.

1.Kashmiri pandits carried out a number of atrocities against everyone including HINDUS who were not Brahmins. No wonder then that no one in Kashmir,(Muslims & Hindus) likes them.

2. Majority of HINDUS across India are now tired of pseudo Hinduism and are embracing Buddhism. Truth is the number of Hindus in India are falling rapidly. A simple census will reveal the truth.

And despite all these Indians make fun of Pakistan as if everything is perfect in their own country.

Seems Indians are in the habit of making a fool of themselves.



Akash said...

Sir,
1.Which entities are now supplying the required spares for su30 and AL-31FP to HAL Ozhar and Koraput since Ukraine is in meltdown state? Are the OEMs in ukraine still supplying ?

2.What steps are being taken by HAL to address this problem. is HAL in talks with Russia for setting up of adequate infrastructure here in India to manufacture those spares or outsource them from companies in Russia.

3.The two radars that have been deployed in Delhi a year back and which will eventually be part of BMD are those Green Pines ? If so besides the 2 Green Pines ordered in early 2000s are these additional ones?

4.last time Ashwin was tested from a canister. This shows its one step closer to operational deployment and hence wooden rounds.
Besides Drdo said they have tested an all new composite rocket motor for AAD.So,is this a new variant of Ashvin with more range aand lesser miss distance,accuracy ?

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

a)X-Band radar development to start soon in National Atmospheric Research Laboratory

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/article7094901.ece


b) Interesting Read:

The day Israel obtained MiG-29s and discovered they were a match for their F-15s, F-16s

http://globalaviationreport.com/2014/06/23/the-day-israel-bagged-syrian-mig-29s-and-discovered-that-they-were-a-match-for-their-f-15s-f-16s/

Jay Bhanushali said...

Vmt for the answers sir.
I am curious about thorium based nuclear power. From my research on the net i came to know that india plans to get 30 % of its annual energy needs from thorium based nuclear reactors by 2050. i find this overly optimistic considering that we meet only 2% to 3% of our electricity needs from nuclear fuel today.my questions to you is,
1) is this target realistically possible?
2) if yes, what will the government need to do to achieve it?
3) will india continue with the AHWR design even for future or is india seriously considering molten salt aka LFTR?
4) what is the current status of the 300mw AHWR Prototype being built at BARC?
5) if all goes according to plan,when will we see a functional,commercially viable, large scale, thorium based power plant on indian soil?
6) do you see this as the sort of disruptive technology which will make india energy independent or am i being too optimistic about this?
7)the chinese are also investing heavily in this technology, is it possible for the two countries to work jointly on this or will such a move be detrimental to our national interest?
EAGERLY awaiting your reply.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

You have told that we have the capability to develop carbon fibre composite based structures for various aircrafts but raw material for these was coming from abroad. I think this is being addressed. Here's the link.

http://www.nal.res.in/pdf/kemrock.pdf

I think this was the last link to our dependency with suppliers from abroad for such materials in this arena. Kindly add if something else is left where India will still be dependent. Pardon my ignorance. Just need your views and analysis as you are far reliable than any information in open domain.

Thanks & Regards,
Amol

Pawan said...

Reply to From Lahore:

Hinduism is not a monolithic. It is a some of all cultural and religious traditions and practices in Indian sub-continent.

I hope you have at least knowledge of origin of word "Hindu". We already celebrate Budha Jayanti and Mahavir Jayanti at our homes so do we visit tombs of Pir and Darwesh on thursday to lit a Diva.

Hinduism is name of embracing everything good about human and life. So where is decreasing number of Hindus of course forget about british or VHP definition of Hinduism.

Every religion has parasites its only that Islam right now have more than it can handle but it can happen to any religion.


lachit said...

@From Lahore said...

please stay put in lahore
or if u cant.
confine ur ranting to defence.pk
u will be much appreciated there



@prasun
i wanted to know that if a private company in india decides to sell a offensive weapon which it has developed inhouse to another country
can it do so.
or does it have to take prior permission from the government.

Jay Bhanushali said...

What is there to be surprised?
Scrutiny and criticism are part and parcel of being in a democratic society.
In india we criticise everything from anushka sharma's lip job to our former army chiefs stupid tweets;from nehru's affair with lady Mountbatten to modi spying on his girlfriend;from what exactly defines a Hindu to the horrible practice of sati and the cast system.
All these discussions dont make us less patriotic.
Infact,it is what differentiates us from intolerant societies.
If you dont accept whats wrong,you will never be able to make it right.
Denial is not a constructive way of dealing with problems.
Being anti or pro something is OK as long as you have sound reasoning and facts to back your argument but being pro or anti something just because you were brainwashed into believing something is stupid and does no good.
You say Hindu's in india are turning to Buddhism.you have not backed your claims with any links or news articles.
Even if i believe you,your statement avctually endorses my view that we are ready to change and evolve with time and are capable of introspection. We are not bound by whats written in some ancient religious text and our religion does not define us or our nationality.we are proud indians irrespective of our religious beliefs or lack thereof. That is what defines our national ethos.

India as a nation is not perfect.
We indians have the courage to accept this. But this does not mean that we dont have to strive towards perfection.
I sincerely hope you take any criticism in the right spirit as it is sometimes difficult to find the faults within.an outside perspective helps,because your enemy is always your most sincere critic.

ra said...

HI prasun
Have the Israelis acknowledged that pak pilots were helping syria in 1973 . what is the veracity of the claim that they shot down Israeli aircraft?. Any way from little hindi i know it seems the Israeli pilot made a basic mistake and got shot down .There was no gut wrenching BFM taking place.
I always wondered why mig-29s were never flying in aero india shows so far?.The Israeli test pilots who managed to fly mig-29s were quite impressed by the fighter. How did they get hold of them.?

rad said...

to lahore
as it is we have a crank paki on the forum dishing out his own history, now we have you trying to explain some concocted screwed news about pandits . I beg you to spare us normal human beings ...... Pleeeeeeease come back to hinduism you ex hindu, it will make you more saner and free.

vishakh said...

HI

As per Defence Spokeperson !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MMRCA is officially Out and future more planes would be brought directly from France RAFALE :) ... IS IT CONFIRMED now ????

https://twitter.com/SpokespersonMoD/status/587595100982644738

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMOL: The devil always lies within the detail. Therefore resorting to grasshopping over the surface always makes one elude the facts & truth. The weblink you quoted clearly refrains from stating from where NAL obtains the Polyacrylonitrile--a synthetic polymer. That is the base material & that's exactly the one that's being imported. What NAL has done is it has helped Kemrock become a FRP/GRP product manufacturer. Polyacrylonitrile is a material that is a byproduct of the petrochemicals processing process, i.e. only oil refineries can supply them. But no India-based oil refinery produces this material. Hence the importation.

To VISHAKH: What the Tweet confirms is EXACTLY what I have explained above, i.e. that the original French offer of February 20, 2006 was made in good faith by France & ought to have been accepted there & then. I have also explained above EXACTLY HOW the MoD tied itself up in knots over the pricing issue & when the MoD could no longer defend the indefensible (i.e. that Indians are blessed with all-knowing wisdom), the only viable option was to revert back to the February 20, 2006 offer of France. So now the MoD spokesman has confirmed all of my above-stated revelations/explanations without going into details. He can't go into the details because it is far too embarrassing to admit that the MoD failed to use common-sense between February 2006 & March 2014! Ab Samjhe?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VISHAKH: And lest you have any follow-on doubts, rest assured that the remaining 153 Rafales will NOT be licence-built, but will be licenced-assembled. This will enable HAL to mainatin its human resource employment levels & at the same time dramatically reduce the total procurement cost of 189 Rafales. And yes, there COULD/MAY have been some element of coordination between your's truly & the MoD in terms of synchronising the time for uploading the narrative in this thread, & the time of keying in the Tweet by the MoD spokesman. However, officially, I can neither confirm nor deny it.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To FROM LAHORE: No one here makes anti-Pakistan comments. They just present their reflections of the prevailing reality. As for your first point, this is a direct quote from the textbook titled EVIL HINDOOS that is prescribed in all Pakistani schools for mandatory ready/study. Hence, your country's educational system needs a drastic reality check. Secondly, for as long as such prescribed textbooks are part of your educational syllabus, don't expect any sane-minded Indian to start loving Pakistan. Thirdly, it is evident you don't even know the etymology of the term HINDU, leave alone what it stands for today.

RD said...

Prasunda,
An interesting read about US submarines unique capability of intelligence gathering. But far more interesting is that India falls in the league of nations such as Pakistan,Afghanistan,Iran,Iraq as target countries irrespective of US terming India as an important ally.

http://phasezero.gawker.com/spying-on-the-u-s-submarine-that-spies-for-the-nsa-and-1693109418/+TylerRogoway

Now apart from US do SSN/SSK of other countries are capable of this. What India can do to protect itself from such spying.

Prav said...

As for the maitri proposal it was mbda that was supposed to provide the IIR seeker not Imrat.

Also is there any proposal for setting up a sosus network in the bay of bengal or the arabian sea . If the navy wants to use the bay of bengal as a "bastion " for its SSBNs isn't this a worthwhile investment ?

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

1. will India receive all Rafales in 2 1/2 years or delivery start in 2 1/2 years?

2. Don't you think the way DRDO, HAL are going to get entangled in AMCA, FGFA & Tejas MK II, India may end up buying even 250+ Rafales?

3. Can I do some Internship with you for learning how to gather and assimilate all this information?

4. Please elaborate how USN SSN do ELINT. I use to think that these SSN only do hydrographic surveys of in Bay of Bengal or tail Indian ships & submarines for noise signature.

Regards,
Pawan

Jay Bhanushali said...

What RM Parrikar said in cnn ibn interview-

1) FGFA will take 10 to 15 Yrs.
2) Will buy MORE rafales IN Govt TO Govt contracts.
3) Rafale not replacement for mig-21.
3) Earlier government Should NEVER have gone through RFP.
4) Earlier government should have gone for g to g deal as it was a STRATEGIC deal
5) Rs 90000 crore for 126 fighters if mmrca had been signed
6) 6 to 10 yrs to phase out mig 21
7) LCA OR SOME OTHER FIGHTER will replace mig-21
8) Original mmrca deal has been SCRAPPED.
9) ALL future procurements for armed forces to be G TO G contracts.

LOOKS LIKE PRASUN K.SENGUPTA IS CHIEF ADVISOR TO THE DEFENSE MINISTER OF INDIA

sujoymajumdar said...

Prasunda,

Another of your forecast has come true.

UAE Warns Pakistan of 'heavy price for ambiguous stand' on Yemen

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/11-Apr-2015/uae-warns-pakistan-of-heavy-price-for-ambiguous-stand-on-yemen

In today's debate about the Rafale on Headlines Today, Pramit Pal Chaudhuri from Hindustan Times said that Russia had promised India that it will not sell the same Su 30 to China that it sold to India but later relegated on that promise. Is there any truth in this?

http://headlinestoday.intoday.in/programme/rafale-deal-narendra-modi-francois-hollande-fighter-jets/1/429940.html

Pawan said...

Just watched Karan Thapar's debate on Rafale deal.

Ajay Shukla was again at his best. Was this guy ever been part of defence forces. Seems to lack even basic understanding how things work on ground. simply pathetic.

I would request you to write in some paper to counter nincompoops like him. I would be really nice if you can advise defence ministry in any capacity.

Mayur M Manapure said...

Nobody here is anti- Pakistani or The " Anti-Muslim" or whatever u want to call us.
we just present facts and comment on the real conditions. And what we discuss here isn't a propaganda of Indian State or we aren't paid by Govt to write or speak about ur country.
And Jay, there is no worth in explaining our ways of life to a Pakistani.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: With the exception of ACM (Ret'd) Anil Yeshwant Tipnis, ALL other participating panelists were WAY OFF THE MARK. ACM Tipnis had in fact echoed my earlier proposition about forming a consortium of private-sector & public-sector companies in partnership with various French OEMs for the licenced-assembly-cum-limited licenced-production programme. Ajai Shukla & Bharat Karnad were smoking God-only-knows-what when they infamously claimed that this will be a huge setback for the Make-in-India manta. I have just uploaded the narrative above (just above the Ukraine section) with undeniable evidence that industrial ToT got underway last February itself! The journalist from THE HINDU was muttering mumbo-jumbo that only he can figure out (because I can't), while Promit Pal Chaudhary was TOTALLY WRONG in claiming that Russia had violated any agreement with India regarding the Su-30MKI. The Su-27SKs & Su-30MKKs of the PLAAF & PLANAF do not possess PESA-MMRs, they don't have canards & they don't have thrust-vectoring nozzles. The IAF's Su-30MKIs possess all three of them. So which undertaking/promise has Russia actually broken? Lastly, Rafale will never be China-specific. It is being acquired for giving India a deep-penetration capability while flying in terrain-avoidance mode at altitudes just over 80 feet above ground--which Su-30MKIs & MiG-35s can't--a point that Dr Bharat Karnad won't ever comprehend for as long as he doesn't do his homework.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Promit Pal Chaudhary was TOTALLY WRONG in claiming that Russia had violated any agreement with India regarding the Su-30MKI. The Su-27SKs & Su-30MKKs of the PLAAF & PLANAF do not possess PESA-MMRs, they don't have canards & they don't have thrust-vectoring nozzles. The IAF's Su-30MKIs possess all three of them. So which undertaking/promise has Russia actually broken? Lastly, Rafale will never be China-specific. It is being acquired for giving India a deep-penetration capability while flying in terrain-avoidance mode at altitudes just over 80 feet above ground--which Su-30MKIs & MiG-35s can't--a point that Dr Bharat Karnad won't ever comprehend for as long as he doesn't do his homework.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AKASH: 1) Ukraine cannot supply anything directly to HAL or anyone else in India. As per the contract with Russia, everything has to be routed through Russia’s Rosoboronexport. 2) Why should HAL be made responsible for this issue? The Govt of India can easily contact Russia & propose that all such or most such components ought to be made in India by Indian firms PROVIDED Russia negotiates a buy-back arrangement with India. Indian firms cannot produce all these components for Su-30MKIs alone—the market is far too small for that. But if Russia agrees to buy the India-built components & export them to other Su-27/Su-30 operators worldwide including the Russian Air Force, then a win-win agreement can be arrived at. 3) I have no idea about any LRTR-type radar being deployed in or around Delhi. 4) The AAD still has a lot more R & D work reqd. It will take at least another 10 test-firings to validate the performance of this missile.

To VIKRAM GUHA: That will be a Doppler weather radar, not exactly the type reqd for precision tracking of high-altitude/sub-orbital or space-based objects. 2) In reality, 2 Moldovan MiG-29B-13s were secretly bought by the US in late 1991 & were brought back to the USAF’s Edwards AFB where they were exhaustively evaluated against the F-15, F-16 & F/A-18. Following that, there was a 20-page booklet printed that contained close to 15 major charts & diagrams of comparative flight performance data. With luck, I obtained a copy of this booklet & it is in fact a 1st-class operational briefing material that is usually prepared for dissimilar air combat training institutions. Every air combat pilot would love to possess such documentation.

To JAY BHANUSHALI: VMT. Compared to PHWRs & LWRs & EPRs, thorium-based reactors are much more expensive. Therefore, the cheaper AHWR will take precedence. Nuclear power generation will not make India energy-independent. At best, 35% power generation can come from nuclear power. China is far ahead of India in terms of in-country R & D due to its greater availability of financial liquidity.

To RD: Realpolitik dictates that one keep a much closer eye on one’s friends than on one’s enemies. The world’s sole superpower would be doing a great disservice to itself if it were to ignore India. Far from this, it should not be surprising that the US will be the country that will be most interested in India’s nuclear WMDs & their delivery systems, which include the SSBNs. Only the SSNs of the US & UK are capable & they often work together to achieve their common objectives. Don’t forget that the US, Canada & the UK also specialise in developing various types of DSRVs, especially those types that can be used by special operations forces for physically tapping the undersea fibre-optic cables.

To PRAV: The Maitri SR-SAM weas never meant to have IIR seekers. It always was to have an active RF terminal seeker. SOSUS reqmt was drafted by the IN way back in 2007 itself.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: 1) Delivery of 36 new-build Rafales will commence 36 months after contract signature. Nope. 189 Rafales will be just fine. 2) Tejas Mk2 could become a worry if the ADA does not redesign the airframe, especially the wings. The best thing to do for ADA is to adopt the very same design for the Tejas Mk2 that was first offered in 1988 by GE Aero Engines. Will upload that photo later today. Had this design been adopted by ADA, the R & D on Tejas Mk1 would have progressed at a much smoother rate. 3) Internship won’t be possible because I function best as a lone wolf. 4) They do all of that & a lot more, as I’ve explained above to RD.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Take it from me that within the next 48 hours, the PA will announce the deployment of two of its infantry brigades (about 10,000 personnel) to Saudi Arabia.

To LACHIT: Of course permission has to be applied for at the Ministry of External Affairs. No exports of such hardware can be undertaken without the MEA’s approval. Even exporting harmless bridging or military clothing or military tents equipment requires the MEA’s endorsement. Ideally, there should be a positives list & negatives list available for free on-line so that vendors can quickly check what type of hardware to be exported requires permission & what does not. But such a facility is still non-existent.

To RA: The Israelis already knew because their ELINT/SIGINT stations on top of Mount Hermon had long ago intercepted the conversations between the PAF pilots whenever they were airborne. As for the veracity of the claim for shooting down, the interview clearly shows the PAF displaying the IDF-AF pilot’s flight-vest, which was given to him with the compliments of the Syrian Air Force. Therefore, the shooting down is not in doubt at all. But the shoot-down was indeed a lucky one, since the Russian K-13 AAM was notorious for failures. The disturbing thing, however, is the then Pakistan govt’s & PAF’s willingness to send 16 pilots to their deaths without even acknowledging their existence in the event of their being caught & taken as POWs. This distinct lack of institutional pride & mistaken faith in plausible deniability has & continues to cost Pakistan dearly in terms of credibility. No self-respecting air force will ever send its pilots on such cowboy expeditions abroad. IAF’s MiG-29UPGs & IN’s MiG-29Ks don’t fly during Aero India expos because they’re not exactly as glamourous as the Su-30MKI nor are they capable of displaying any form of supermanoeuvrability. The IDF-AF got exposed to the MiG-29B-13 way back in 1992 courtesy of the USAF (as I’ve explained above) & again in 1997 courtesy the Russian Air Force.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Opinion by Admiral (Ret'd) Arun Prakash on the Rafale deal:

http://southasiamonitor.org/detail.php?type=sl&nid=11331

There are some factual errors in this piece,though.

Rohan said...

Most ideal scenario now given recent developments and pragmatic administration:

- Rafale's bought G-G upto around 72 airframes, balance from 189 assembled by Reliance who will presumably take over MRO duties for Mirage and Rafale fleets also. These aircraft replace the MiG-27 and Jaguar as the IAF's preferred deep strike platform

- HAL gets a swift kick up the backside and speeds up the Tejas Mk.2 which gets put into full production by 2018 and replaces the MiG-21 for Area Air Defense duties. I envision need for some 275-300 frames eventually to cover all regions with 6 minute QRA response.

- Super-Sukhoi upgrade finalized and full fleet upgraded by 2020. Total fleet bolstered to 300 frames with supplemental orders (16 squadrons + spares)

- Co-operative Development Agreement signed between India-France for future upgrade and eventual successor for Rafale (Dassault already has a pipeline for 2025 MLU) This takes over the AMCA Programme and relives HAL / ADA of responsibility in view of their institutional failure to be accountable and also allows them the resources to concentrate on gainfully finishing the Tejas project in a respectable manner.

- FGFA deadlines are slipping by the day, above projections give us sufficient breathing room to re-evaluate our priorities. With China getting S-400 system as confirmed today, the FGFA suddenly is in threat. In current form the S-400 can easily negate the stealth advantage of the T-50 as the Russians themselves like to boast about the counter-stealth capabilities of the Triumpf. The Russians are trying to play their old game of pitting China vs India but they may have shot themselves in the foot here. S-400 is a game changer in Asia-Pac and FGFA may be superseded entirely before birth. But unlike earlier, IAF will be sufficiently covered for its DEFENSIVE needs for the immediate future. This will allow AMCA to be carefully crafted and thought out to face the evolving threat environment.

And high time the Indian defense establishment realizes the folly of leaning too heavily on Russia and shakes off the yoke of Nehruvian Socialist thinking. Russians play both sides to benefit themselves. They will never allow India to gain superiority over China so FGFA will be hobbled in some way or the other. Similar pattern will continue in future. Notice how China suddenly came out with new VLS equipped SSN's as Russia is negotiating to lease more Schulka's to us. Also reliance on Russian hardware puts us in bad situations (notice how Ukraine crisis has potential to cripple our armed forces as Prasun-da illustrates)

Best thing for India is to wake up to the geopolitical reality. And current administration seems to be walking down that path. Hopefully known anti-national elements embedded in our body-politic and media do not succeed in once again turning public opinion against them in the way they sabotaged Vajpayee govt.

Jai Hind

MR said...

Shuklaji continues his crusade against Rafale. One fails to understand why he spews so much venom at Rafale. After all he is no Air Force man, for all his pretentions as a defence analyst.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/ajai-shukla-make-in-india-on-the-guillotine-115041301159_1.html

Is Dassault really "struggling to survive" as Shuklaji is insinuating? My guess is that the French Govt will never let it sink, even if nobody orders any Rafales for export. France is probably the only European country with an almost independent defence industry, unlike the Typhoon partners and they would like to retain their independednce.

pm said...

http://www.eurasiareview.com/13042015-will-chinese-intrusions-into-indias-borders-ever-end-analysis/ sir what do you make of it?

Prav said...

Thank you for your replies.
Why would Russia move any spares production to India ? There is a considerable push there to replace Ukranian suppliers with Russian ones.

Subir Bhattacharjee said...

Prasun,

1.I think the Ruskies are playing us inside-out. They have always been of the opinion that Indians are a bunch of dolts. This is why they are not even delivering a prototype of the T-50 but instead arguing with MoD over more funds for R&D.

However, they have already delivered S-400 & Su 35 to China.

2. It is a well know fact that Bose, Bhabha and Sastri were killed by the Ruskies.

3.With the exception of some SSBN and missile tech the Ruskies frankly can not sell anything worthwhile to India in the near future.

Rituraj said...

Prasun,

Parrikar hesitated when he mentioned that MiG-21 will be replaced by LCA -- or any other single engine fighter. Now rumours are getting strong that Gripen is making a comeback.

There are rumours that SAAB will be offered either 50% or even 100% in Tejas MK-2 project. HAL has apparently gone slow on component providers and production is not being hastened any more.

If I remember correctly, this was the idea of V K Saraswat who had pushed it before retiring. Now he is in NITI Ayog. Which seems possible but unfortunate for Indian industry.

Can you please check its authenticity? Also, What do you think of Shukla's pitch today on Rafale?

rad said...

HI Prasun
though the rafale has been tested and found to be the best fighter with so many capabilities, nothing has been said about the data link capability of it.It seems to have link 16 which i s useless to us .Dont you think that there is a glaring deficiency?.The french are always independent, I really wonder why they dont have a data link of there own?.At least i am not aware off.It shouldn't be much of a problem for them.Any dope on that?. Have plans to use our data link 2 , is it feasible to interface with the french avionics .
Can you elaborate on our link 2 ?. Is it as good as the link 16 etc, what are its capabilities.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MR: That is yet another piece of yellow journalism that requires a detailed point-by-point rebuttal, which I will upload in this thread tonight.

To PRAV: Not at all. An ASSOCHAM delegation is right now in Moscow to take part in a two-day seminar organised by Russia’s SVER BANK to explore & discuss this very matter. President Putin had ordered SVER BANK to organise such a seminar & come up with decisive solutions. But since the ‘desi’ journalists aren’t covering such events, practically no one is aware of what’s going on behind-the-scenes.

To SUBIR BHATTACHARYA: Well, in this case your thought process, I’m afraid, as gone awry. It’s no use delivering any T-50 prototype when the FGFA’s internal bulkheads will be quite different to host the DARE-developed MSWS suite, for instance. So, until DARE completes designing the MSWS suite, the FGFA’s airframe design cannot be undertaken.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RITURAJ: General questions only deserve general answers. What Parrikar had hinted at was the upcoming project to arm the Hawk Mk132AJTs with gunpods & lightweight air-to-ground rickets so that they could undertake close air-support missions from the MiG-21Ms & MiG-21 Bisons, pending the arrival of the 40 Tejas Mk1s. Everything else about The Gripen etc is all mischievous speculation.

Domestos said...

Belarus also produces component for Su-27,30 and 33 but that still doesn't mean that all components in Su-30,33,35 manufactured in Russia are not from Russia.

Better to say yes Ukraine and Belarus have factories that offer some alternatives products for many Soviet origin weapons but still in Russia you have manufactures who produce almost all products that you have cited for Ukraine.

So even Ukraine is producing some of components still it does not mean that Russia Sukhoi need them because Russia alsa have manufacturers of same components that are even better.

For example look at R-27 rocket that is produced in Russia Vympel and it has better variants and beside it it has much more different missiles. So you can buy it(R27) from Russia manufacturer instead from Ukrainian Artem manufacturer and Russian Vympel offers even better variants of same product like is activ homing radar head for R-27 etc.

Avi said...

The RM in his interview seems to suggest that:

- There is a possible backdoor entry of Griffen in Make in India. When he states that 'Tejas OR some other single engine aircraft will make up the number'
Thus the production of Tejas will be token and limited. Thus is there a lobby working to push Grifen in? Weren't they providing some consultation to Tejas/

- Also DRDO has been going headless for the last 2 months. So they suddenly sacked
Avinash Chander, but what happened to his replacement? And if there wasn't a replacement, why was he sacked?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbLJcQltaE0

lachit said...

@prasun

i would very much like to know your opinion regarding the dissapperance of NETAJI BOSE.

do u think he was done away by nehru and congress
1.to remove any political competition
2.to gobble up the large sum of money and assets of THE INA .infact bose was the only person who had a accurate idea of the exact value of these assets.

i once read that the first political person from india to stash money in the swiss bank was nehru.
now if that is true .where did that money come from?

was there any effort made regarding the proper inventorying of the war chests of INA returned by the japanease.?


we might never come to know about the fate of NETAJI

but one thing is sure.
NETAJI has become a LEGEND which people like gandhi ,nehru will never become.
in a couple of decades from now nehru will be known as a dreaming fool.
gandhi will only remain in the banknotes and GOI functions.

while LEGENDS like NETAJI, BHAGAT SINGH etc will continue to warm the hearts of future generations all over india.


raw13 said...

Hi,

Good decision by Modi. Order the built aircraft. HAL/DRDO will not learn much from building the Rafael, except maybe causing few extra crashes with their quality stamp. They have been building aircraft for the last 50-60years and look where LCA is. Better to forget "make in india", just go get the numbers as cheap as possible.

@Prasun, all the PAF pilots who went to fight against Israel volunteered. Pakistanis like fighting and there is no better way to test your courage and skills but against the best in a real war. When they came back they brought back invaluable fighting experience.

Compare that with what the US colonel said about the IAF su30 pilots, who didnt feeling like going 1-1 in training against USAF.

Vikram Guha said...

Nice Link.All the details about the US Navy's platforms

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact.asp

PrasunDa,

I wish you and all your loved ones a very happy Poila Baishak. May God bless you.

Mayur Manapure said...

To Raw13: At least we don't buy stuff from PRC or DPRK and paint them green and name them after some Muslim Invader......yes DRDO and HAL is behind compared to its counterparts around the world. But that is due to gross Mismanagement of resources and manpower. And as far as PAF's pilots experience is concerned, the world can clearly see where it is made use of, against your own citizens. Well one cannot judge the skills of Pilots by some statement made by an officer to boost his men's morale....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

TO DOMESTOS: At Aero India 2015 the Russian OEMs for VK-2500 engine confirmed to me that as of now Russia makes 80% of that engine, but the critical components still have to be imported from Ukraine. Likewise, the final end-product can be supplied by Russia, PROVIDED some of the critical components of non-Russian origin are supplied by overseas vendors in Belarua or Ukraine. As of now Russia has not replicated the industrial production facilities existing in Belarus or Ukraine & therefore outsourcing still takes place. Same's the case with the R-27 BVRAAM. Without the supply of components (like actuators) from ARTEM, Tactical Missiles Corp or Vympel won't be able to sell its version of the R-27 to anyone else.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AVI: General questions asked by 'desi' journalists only deserve general answers. What Parrikar had hinted at was the upcoming project to arm the Hawk Mk132AJTs with gunpods & lightweight air-to-ground rickets so that they could undertake close air-support missions from the MiG-21Ms & MiG-21 Bisons, pending the arrival of the 40 Tejas Mk1s. Everything else about The Gripen etc is all mischievous speculation.

The RM is on the lookout for a suitable technocrat with private-sector working experience who can connect the DRDO's various labs with the local industry so that the industry gets involved in product development from the outset, like how TATA developed the Kestrel 8 x 8 technology demonstrator with DRDO's inputs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: Fly-by-wire combat aircraft are extremely forgiving & at least in India they have never crashed due to lapses in manufacturing quality. All the Su-30MKI crashes to date, for instance, were due to human error. Not one was due to any form of substandard production quality.

The fact that all 16 PAF pilots volunteered is fine, nothing wrong with that. What is totally wrong is the institution of the Govt of Pakistan & the PAF according them the status of mercenaries by refusing to stand by them & refusing to be accountable for them in any way in case they fell into enemy hands. This is not the way any self-respecting institution functions. By taking resort to the policy of implausible deniability, the then Govt of Pakistan & PAF HQ effectively abdicated their responsibilities & obligations. That is where the shame lies. It is very much like how the PA in 1999 refused to acknowledge the existence of NLI personnel engaging in combat against the IA in Drass, Kargil, Batalik, Chorbat La & Mushkoh . This is the highest form of insult that can ever be inflicted against any gallant warfighter, & is severely demoralising for any PA soldier in any future conflict with India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: Wishing you the very same to you & all your loved ones as well.

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

If we dont get MORE RAFALES ; we
are doomed

THose who are talking of MORE LCA mk1 are simply crazy

And above all the SAME DELAYS will again happen with LCA MK 2

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIJAY; Have faith in what ACM (Ret'd) A Y Tipnis said yesterday at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdOtR76z3gc&hd=1

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: The Rafale's THALES-supplied data-links on the rafale include Link 16 standard, the close air support (CAS) Mode M data link (for imagery transmission) and the CAS Rover data link (for video transmission).

Here's more technical dope on them:

HRDL high-rate data-link:
http://www.thales7seas.com/html5/products/184/02_MTDLS_HR.pdf

http://electronicsandbooks.com/eab1/manual/Hardware/T/Thales/Brochure/MPDL%20c20031209%20[6].pdf

MIDS-LVT data-link:
file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/Sabatini%20RTO-MP-IST-083%20(11).pdf

http://idlsoc.com/Documents/Symposiums/IDLS2008/Tim_Trudeau_G04.pdf

http://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/wsh2012/206.pdf

http://www.academia.edu/9168650/Present_and_Future_of_the_Multifunctional_Information_Distribution_System_MIDS_Platform_Integration_Terminal_Modifications_and_Future_Enhancements

http://electronicsandbooks.com/eab1/manual/Hardware/T/Thales/Brochure/mids_lvt%20c20020723%20[2].pdf

LINK-2 is IN-specific & is not meant for the IAF. The tactical data-link used by the IAF is known as the ODL or operational data-link & it comes from TADIRAN of Israel. It is on board the Su-30MKIs, MiG-29UPGs, A-50I PHALCONsd & EMB-145Is. Upgraded Mirage 2000HI/THIs too have the same MIDS data-link from THALES as the Rafales will.

Pawan said...

Prasunji,

1.Never did I heard religious minister is visiting a foreign country to convince them for diplomatic and military support. Pakistan has really lost the sense.

2. Hawk can be a quite effective in CAS as Hawk 200 has been bought by many nations. Can't we get it convert to same standard?


Regards,

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: 1) It hasn't lost its sense, but has lost all its cards & has no other option but to send 10,000 infantry soldiers to KSA. What several Pakistani intellectuals cannot digest is that a small emirate like the UAE has threatened a nuclear WMD-armed Pakistan & Pakistan becoming extremely nervous of taking sides with the GCC member-countries due to the Iranian factor. Does this mean that Pakistan is scared about taking on a severely sanctions-hit Iran? Does it mean that Pakistan sees Iran as a formidable foe in a conventional war scenario? If that's the case, then Pakistan's armed forces are indeed facing a serious crisis of confidence.

2) Hawk Mk132 lightly armed as a CAS platform is just an interim measure pending the arrival of the 40 Tejas Mk1s.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ROHAN: Everyone would have wished for such a rozy scenario. But reality dictates otherwise. For instance: 1) Only 36 will be imported off-the-shelf. Balance will be supplied in kits for final assembly in India by a consortium likely to include Reliance & Mahindra at a rate of 14 per annum. 2) HAL never had anything to do with R & D on Tejas MRCA. This waqs, is & will remain ADA’s responsibility. Since Tejas Mk2’s R & D calls for a totally redesigned airframe with some major changes to the wings & air-intakes, it will involve a totally all-new flight-test/certification regime lasting some 2,000 flights. If two Tejas Mk2 prototypes are made available by 2018, airworthiness certification can at best be achieved by 2021, meaning series-production by HAL can begin in only 2022 at best & first fully-equipped squadron will be commissioned in only 2025. 3) Super Sukhoi upgrade cannot proceed at a rate of 12 aircraft per month at best. If work starts in 2018, it will take more than 2 decades to complete the fleet-wide upgrade. 4) FGFA too won’t become available till 2025. China never bought S-300MPU1 & S-400 Triumph LR-SAMs to counter tactical combat aircraft. They’re meant solely for intercepting high-altitude supersonic recce aircraft. 5) There are no VLS cells on any new-build PLA SSN. Rumours about VLS-equipped SSNs are being wrongly spread by certain Taiwanese interests. Instead, here’s the truth: The PLAN had decided in 2005 to equip its SSNs, its H-6 medium-bombers and the new Type 055 DDGs with supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, for which there were two competitors developed. One was the CX-1 3.5-tonne Mach 3 ASCM & the other was the YJ-12/YJ-18 402km-range air-launched ASCM with 300kg warhead. In the end, by 2010, the YJ-12/YJ-18 combination won the competition because the CX-1 could not be launched from the 533mm torpedo-tubes of submarines. On the Type 055 DDG, the YJ-18 will be launched from the same VL-cell as that of the HQ-9N/FD-2000 LR-SAM. The YJ-12 on the other hand will be air-launched from the PLANAF's H-6 medium bombers, which presently are armed with AKD-20 subsonic cruise missiles.

To PM: India believes that those PLA recce patrols that intrude are those that enter Indian territory as depicted in the Chinese map first shown to India in April 1960. That map shows the Depsang Plain as belonging to India. Likewise, the IA’s recce patrols too go up to the maximum claim-line of India as per the April 1960 map, & such patrols are claimed by China to be intrusions. These will never end in the foreseeable future & there’s nothing to fear or be apprehensive about, since such recce patrols can never be in tactical possession of any territory & have to inevitably withdraw either after a few hours or a few days at most.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LACHIT: What is now known beyond any doubt is that India’s official narrative on here independence struggle is totally false & non-factual. If the true facts are recognised, then it will emerge that the Indian National Congress (INC) was engaged in a fierce power-struggle with firstly the India Independence League & later the Provisional Govt of Azad Hind, which by the mid-1940s had won official diplomatic recognition from some 15 countries, including the then USSR & this provisional govt’s embassy was located in Irkutsk, where the Su-30MKIs were first developed & built in the late 1990s. It is also beyond any doubt that after the military mutinies began inside India after 1945 (due to the INA trials), it was impossible for an expatriate force of 800,000 Britishers to exercise control over a colony of 25 crore people. Therefore, both the Brits & INC wanted a win-win formula, as the Brits wanted a face-saving withdrawal while the INC wanted to nullify the international diplomatic recognitions accorded to the Provisional Govt of Azad Hind. Consequently, both the Brits & the INC were co-conspirators in drafting & inking the ‘Transfer of Power’ agreement, meaning no one won independence for India nor did the Brits surrender power to any indigenous party or organisation fighting for independence. In other words, independence was GRANTED to India on terms favourable to the Brits & the entire leadership of the INC, inclusive of M K Gandhi, J L Nehru, Sardar Patel etc etc were all complicit in this grand conspiracy & all of them acted opportunistically. But Sardar Patel more than made up for all this by successfully orchestrating stratagems aimed at bringing all the Princely States to their knees & coercing them to become part of the Republic of India.

What is also evident beyond doubt is that S C Bose never perished in any air-crash. Instead, there’s anecdotal evidence to suggest that he along with his Imperial Japanese military intelligence escorts had made it safely to the Provisional Govt of Azad Hind’s embassy in Irkutsk inside Russia via Dairen (today’s Dalian inside China’s Liaoning province). After that, the trail goes cold. If he indeed was alive inside Russia then, then why did Stalin keep this a secret between mid-1945 & 1953? Was it due to any request to this effect made by J L Nehru? And if Nehru did make this request was it done to remove all trace of the Provisional Govt of Azad Hind, or was it done to genuinely prevent any large-scale internal upheaval in case S C Bose were to be captured by the victorious Allied Forces & be subjected to a war-crimes trial (since the Allied Powers had all branded S C Bose as an enemy who supported the Axis Powers)?

You may also find these interesting:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/books/did-netaji-subhas-chandra-bose-end-up-in-russia/article1-960870.aspx

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/documents-reveal-nehru-govt-shared-information-on-netaji-s-family-with-britain-s-mi5/article1-1336420.aspx

http://www.nsfoundation.org.uk/Guide%20to%20Netaji%20Mystery.pdf

http://www.missionnetaji.org/article/russian-connection

Prav said...

http://www.dawn.com/news/1175291/lahore-to-dammam-flight-prevented-from-landing-in-saudi-arabia-reports
So is this the start of retaliation ?
The comment section there is interesting .

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRAV: Watch Nawaz Sharif’s speech given at Gilgit yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKKu5R9sN1w&hd=1

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
Nawaz Sharif has offered a lot of lollipops to GB. In your opinion, why this sudden generosity? and is this going to make any difference for the disgruntled Shias of GB?

Best Regards
Raj

vishakh said...

Hi

India P15B Destroyer Vishakhapatnam class is going to be launched . Can you provide details about it like displacements , weapons , improvements from P15A

sujoymajumdar said...

Prasun Da,

First of all I wish you and your family a Happy[Bengali] New Year.

Second, your prediction is already coming true. GOI will ask a Pvt Indian player to jointly manufacture the Rafale.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/make-in-india-rafale-deal-may-take-off-as-a-joint-venture-between-french-and-indian-firm/articleshow/46925512.cms

Best,

Sujoy

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJ: Promising to deliver & actually ending up delivering as promised are two poles apart, as Pakistanis have already realised. You will recall that in 2013 the Sharif brothers had promised several times to end the crippling power shortages first within 3 months of coming to power, then to 6 months & then to 2 years. Now they’re saying that the shortages won’t end till 2019. Therefore, the Shias won’t buy such lollypops anymore. Already in Mirpur in PoK the PTI has defeated everyone else in recently-held local elections.

VISHAKH: It won’t be radically different from the P-15A DDGs. Up to 90% commonality will be there.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: And the very same to you too & all your loved ones. As for the Indian industrial consortium, Reliance & Mahindra defence are already talking about it & are likely to be the principal Indian industrial partners, while Dassault, THALES & SAFRAN of France will come in as principal foreign partners. This will the only way to expedite the aircraft induction schedules, since it takes HAL 4 to 6 years to just obtain financial clearance from the MoD for an ordinary ROH facility! I can tell you from experience that no CMD of any DPSU loves the idea of waiting outside the office of a middle-aged Joint Secretary-Air (who can’t even tell the difference between a Rafale & Su-30MKI because his/her previous posting was in the Ministry of Agriculture)) for a pre-arranged appointment just for the sake of discussing minor administrative or financial matters. All CMDs find it highly insulting in a severely class-conscious environment that prevails within the corridors of power throughout Delhi. Heavyweight private-sector industrial enterprises on the other hand don’t have to engage in such administrative chores & can raise cash overnight either through commercial borrowings or through sale of shares in the stock markets.

sujoymajumdar said...

Many thanks for the answer PrasunDa.

So if future Defense contracts are all G to G and there is no competition what role can the Pvt sector play?

For example if the LPD contract of the IN becomes G to G then Indian Pvt players will no longer have to tie up with foreign defense primes since MoD will take a call and sub contract part of the work to the Pvt sector.

Thanks again.

Sujoy

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

Prasun Da,

"Tejas Mk2 that was first offered in 1988 by GE Aero Engines. Will upload that photo later today. Had this design been adopted by ADA"


Waiting for them please put it on ...

rad said...

hi prasun
VMT for the many links about data links.If tadiran supplies the link is it not that they can always snoop and listen to what is going on?.
Why did we not develop our own link ?
Is it above our expertise?.After all link 16 is old and we could have caught up . I heard tadiran offered a link free of cost but was turned down , what was the idea of them giving some thing free?.

Raman said...

Your Good, man....
I am amazed at your patience of getting back on each comment...

Anyways...Happy that someone in the MoD is listening to you (whether you confirm or not !! That's like...."If I tell you - I will have to kill you !!!)

Now that finally some action in the Defence function.......any 'hope' that when A Carter comes calling in next month - the Apache and Chinook deals will finally get signed ??.....and, any other Deals ??

Also....why the delay in the Jaguar engine upgrade (Honeywell F125)...it's seems so logical to go ahead with it or is there something else brewing ??

and, the MRTT Deal ??....again the need seems to be essential.....are the existing 6 IL78's enough to cater to such a large number of aircraft - 175+ Su30's/40+ Mirages/100 Jaguars/ 25+ Mig29's of the IN/plus IAF Mig 29's being upgraded/ 5 (+6+1)C-130's/ 10 C-17's............

Also, RM gone to S Korea (before Modi visits)....any luck on the 12 MCMV for GSL ?? RM must be keen to push that to show Goans that he is doing something for them....

And, Keep up the good work...

raw13 said...

Hi Prasun,

I know where you are coming from, it is a valid point. However, denial-ability has long been part of state-craft. Infact all nations practice it. The pilots knew the situation before they volunteered. You do not read regret or shame in their writing or interviews but pride in their PAF.

FROM LAHORE said...

I had a feeling that majority of you people will have nothing purposeful to say but advertise your ignorance.

Fact is no individual in India calls himself an Indian, they are always Punjabi, Gujrati, Tamil, Bengali etc. Hinduism divides India and does not unite it. No wonder that Ambedkar converted before his death, whose birth anniversary you people are now celebrating. These same idiots who practice Brahamanism and thinks it is Hinduism.

Pakistan may collapse one day, but INSHALLAH India will collapse before that.

Biswajit Pattanaik said...

Hi Prasun,
Another of ur prediction coming true....
" Afghan Prez to Visit India in April-end" idrw.org/afghan-prez-to-visit-india-in-april-end/#more-61993

@FROM LAHORE
I pity people like u,i understand ur problem frustrated to d extreme level.....

lachit said...

@prasun
thanks for ur reply

i agree with u

and on the 2nd part
stalin had no reason to kill/imprison netaji unless asked by
1.nehru
2.britain to stop india from getting a better leader


by the way dont u think the no of barak 8 missiles on p 15a and 15b is insufficient.
against pakistan it is not going to be a problem.
but suppose they come against chinese carrier groups in the future they will run into trouble.

and is it be possible to fit extra VLS modules for barak 8 into the 15a and 15b in the future if the IN wants to do so.

Mayur M Manapure said...

Read This Raw13
...http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/army-recruitment-rally-in-jk-attracts-20000-youth/
And please give us one reason why Pakistan is a better place to live...

Jay Bhanushali said...

The Pakistanis on this blog are incorrigible people,there is no point arguing with them.
Their stupidity reminds me of Mark Twain's quote-
"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."

Parikrama said...

Hello PrasunDa,
How is that information about Rafale under Made in India project where you are suggesting a consortium approach comprising of HAL, Reliance and Mahindra is not picked up by other journos (desi or foreign)
Dont you think this may become a bofors like scandal for favouring Ambani brothers?
Especially as both Reliance and Mahindra has no experience in aerospace at all..

Also how a kit based assembling is actually a make in India in real sense? its same as Su30 MKI route.
Also how you arrived at production rate of 14.
Can you share a bit more view on this whole consortium and production thing..to understand really the feasibility and cost reduction aspect.

You feel dassault would agree for 49% stake?

lachit said...


@FROM LAHORE
@RAW13

please do visit the link i have provided below. it might help u all to grasp the reality.

http://imgur.com/VHVCUUy

dushyant hardaha said...

http://seansrussiablog.org/2009/01/29/ukraine-throws-kgb-archive-doors-open/
sir
will it reveal sc bose death mystery lal bahadur shastri death selection of mig 23/27 etc

F said...

Prasun,

1. You previously said that the MKIs can't perform low level, terrain hugging flights because the Bars has no terrain following mode, the airframe can't take the stress tolerance levels and because of a lack of low altitude navigation pods. Are Damocles and ATFLIR considered low altitude navigation pods? And what about older pods like the Nite Hawk?

2. Do designs like the MBB-339, Alpha Jet and Hawk, which started life as trainers and later became attack platforms have airframes that can take the stress of low level terrain hugging flights?

3. Would it be safe to assume that the F/A-18D's APG-73 radar has a terrain hugging mode?

4. Don't you think its ironic that the Bars doesn't have a terrain hugging mode but that the older APG-66H as fitted to the Hawk 200 does?

5. As you're aware, China is currently conducting intensive land reclaimation in the Spratlys. In your opinion can we expect to see Chinese MPAs and even fighters based in the Spratlys in the coming years?

6. You mentioned why the IAF's MiG-27s and MiG-21 have to be retired by 2017/2018 and this is understood. Makes one wonder how North Korea still manages to keep its vintage MiG-15s and Shenyang F-6s flying :]



Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Who says there bwill be no competition? That’s what the RFI process is all about: inviting detailed responses from various vendors & then making detailed technical evaluations both in-country & by visiting abroad to the OEM’s manufacturing sites & then deciding on a particular product for procurement, following which G-to-G contracts will be signed. The country’s public & private sectors will by then have teamed up with their foreign counterparts & will always be recipients of industrial offsets & licenced-production/assembly. For instance, if the Caesar 155mm/52-cal motorised howitzer is selected (which it will be, since common-sense & logic states that it is the most widely exported, combat-proven & cheapest such howitzer), then automatically L & T &Ashok Leyland will become the prime India-based licenced vendors of Nexter Systems. Same with the LPH contract as well. This criteria will apply everywhere where foreign platforms are reqd for selection. Private-sector’s indigenous platform solutions too will be evaluated & vetted by the IN’s Naval Design Bureau, just as was the case with the NOPV contract that Pipavav won through a competitive bidding process. What the Govt of India is now saying is that when it comes to procuring complete platforms of imported origin, one does not have to resort to open competitive bidding that only ends up in a public embarrassment for everyone except the winner. Imagine telling the US that its products like F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is no good against the EF-2000 or Rafale! The way to go about the M-MRCA competition would have been to openly invite RFIs & then study their responses & do a comparative evaluation of the agility metrics of all contenders. Had this been done, it would have become evident long ago that only the Rafale & EF-2000 met the IAF’s ASQRs (even the US knew as far bacxk as 2009 that the IAF’s energy manoeuvrability-based agility metrics reqmts could only be matched by the F/A-22 Raptor, & nothing else) & following this, it would have become evident that of these two, only France was capable of providing other strategic inducements like cooperating with India to develop SSN capabilities. This is exactly what had happened in 1989 when, in return for India opting for USSR-developed VVER PWRs for Koodankalam, theSoviets became flexible enough to help India develop SSBNs.

To RAD: LoLz! That’s like saying every Made-in-China cellphone being used in India enables Beijing to eavesdrop on phone conversations taking place in India. Heart of such data-links is the proprietary encryption algorithm, which can be embedded within the processor chips (of the data-link’s high-speed modem) only by the end-user/operator. Furthermore, the end-user/operator also possesses adequate IT resources (human & technological) for detecting any form of malware. Therefore, your worries in this matter are unfounded & you consequently need not lose your sleep over it. Instead, gobble up a few Guinness Stouts & have fun!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAMAN: VMT indeed. Apache is not as important as the CH-47F Chinook contract-award. At least a minimum of 40 CH-47Fs are reqd by the IAF as per the IAF’s long-term force modernisation plans. Jaguar IS re-engining with Honeywell F-125s will proceed as planned & a decision on this is due in the last quarter of this year. Truth is, the former RM AKA sat on most of these nfi8les since he was 1) totally unimaginative; & 2) he was totally anti-US. He even told off his PM (Dr MMS) once by saying that due to orders from higher authorities (implying the Gandhi family) he could not authorize the co-development with the Us of new-generation weapons like ATGMs!!! As for A330-220 MRTTs, the actual reqmt is for 10 units. BHut that contract can be placed next year since the reqmt is not a pressing one. MCMVs will come from Italy’s Intermarine SA, with whom GSL already has an industrial tie-up. ROK (South Korea) can only offer fleet replenishment tankers for the IN & that too rather quickly. In any case, ROK has nothing to complain about, since more than three-quarters of India’s annual imports of consumer electronics items worth US$60 billion come from ROK.

RAW13: Plausible deniability is resorted to only when waging covert warfare, not during conventional. Those PAF pilots would have had a totally different story to tell had one or more would have been captured as PoW. Remember the plight & confessions of those NLI personnel in mid-1999 who were taken as PoWs by the IA ata time when they were being disowned by the entire Pakistani ruling-class & the PA? They never had pride written on their face, only a sense of betrayal prevailed.

FROM LAHORE: LoLz! You must be the proverbial pot calling the kettle black. The beauty of India is that due to the differences you’ve mentioned, everyone feels they are in a minority & therefore there’s no tyranny of any perceived majority. And that is exactly why, for psychological reasons & for seeking a sense of security, the idea of Indianness always predominates all other regional or religious identities. And are you saying that something nlike the caste system doesn’t prevail in Pakistan? Well, here’s an extremely level-headed & discerning Pakistani (who you would obviously classify as a blasphemous traitor) giving you all a gargantuan doze of reality:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1FqKTq9Doc&hd=1

Even Allah is witness to the fact that India never collapsed for the past tens of thousands of years, nor will India collapse for the next tens of thousands of years. Why? Because India, unlike Pakistan, never defined her territorial frontiers within the straitjacket of either territoriality or theocratic religion. Instead, India & China have both co-existed as the world’s oldest recorded ‘civilisational states’. But obviously you won’t have the IQ to grasp the enormity of all this, thanks to your terminal stupidity.

To BISWAJIT PATTANAIK: VMT indeed.

To RAW13: O yaar, don’t you realise that these are all India’s Trojan Horses? Haven’t you as yet grasped why exactly these ‘separatists’ are being accorded state protection by India? Haven’t you seen last year’s lecture by India’s NSA Ajit Doval? Everything’s clearly explained there. It’s all about Realpolitik or Machtpolitik in European terms, & Chanakyan arthaniti. But since most Pakistanis prefer to thrive on the reflected glories of their past Muslim Arabic, Kurd, Persian, Afghan & Turkish colonizers & oppressors—despite the fact that Chanakya hailed from Takshashila (Taxila today)—Chanakya’s wisdom & stratagems are always overlooked by Pakistani decision-makers. The end-result: Muslim East Pakistan is today Bangladesh, i.e. the demographic majority that had played the decisive role in the creation of Pakistan ultimately chose to demolish the founding principles of Pakistan in 1971.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LACHIT: Events don’t point to the possibility of Stalin killing S C Bose. Stalin & layer Krushchev would have had every reason to use an alive S C Bose to blackmail J L Nehru in order to try to bring Nehru into the leftist socialist fold. More like a constant sword of Damocles hanging over Nehru’s neck. Most likely S C Bose was later released from detention by the Soviets & he may have somehow managed to return to India in the late 1960s. That could perhaps explain why the IB stopped snooping over S C Bose’s relatives not in b1968, but sometime in the mid-1970s.

Complement of Barak-8 LR-SAMs on P-15A & P-15B DDGs is perfectly adequate, since there will be at least 3 such DDGs & four other FFGs that will always accompany an IN carrier battle-group. Therefore, there will be more than enough MR-SAMs & LR-SAMs available for task-force or battle-group protection. PLAN’s carrier battle-groups are still a decade away from becoming operational. The days of opposing carrier battle-groups ended with World War-2. Today, SSGNs armed with supersonic ASCMs do the tailing of carrier battle-groups.

To JAY BHANUSHALI: It’s not stupid, but terminal stupidity that they have been afflicted with. How else can only explain the remarks of the former DG of ISI Lt Gen Assad Durrani when, asked about his reaction to the cold-blooded murder of schoolchildren in Peshawar on December 16 last year, he merely labelled it as an incident of collateral damage. And since the airing of his interview by Al Jazeera, no one in Pakistan has even bothered to confront him in any manner. What does that tell you?

To PARIKRAMA: That can only be answered by those concerned ‘desi’ journalists. After all, I don’t hold fort for them. But one of them did pick up some tidbits & SUJOY MAJUMDAR has already posted that report’s weblink above. Reliance & Mahindra were selected by Dassault, THALES & SAFRAN, & not by anyone inside the Govt of India. Reliance’s name first cropped up 2 years ago during the UPA-2 regime. So who now is favouring Ambani? Certainly not NaMo. Bofors & HDW & Scorpene deals were not G-to-G affairs. They were Govt-to-OEM contracts known as direct commercial sales. For the FH-77B howitzers, the contract’s co-signatories were the Govt of India & Bofors AB. For the Class 209/Type 1500 SSK, the contract’s co-signatories were the Govt of India & HDW/Ferrostaal, while for the Scorpene SSK the contract’s co-signatories were the Govt of India & ARMARIS. For the forthcoming contract for 36 Rafales, the contract’s co-signatories will be the Govt of India & the French govt’s DGA. The DGA will in turn sign its internal contracts with Dassault Aviation, THALES & SAFRAN. Through-life product-support will be guaranteed by the DGA, & not by any French industrial OEM like Dassault, THALES or SAFRAN. These OEMs will be accountable to the DGA for adhering to their contractual commitments & the DGA will in turn be accountable to the MoD. This is similar to the US Foreign Military Sale (FMS) system, & the Russian system under which India never inks any procurement contract directly with any Russian industrial OEM, but only & always with the Russian govt’s Rosoboronexport State Corp (which in the days of the USSR was known as the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations).

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: Nope, it won’t. The most secretive files/dossiers are all stored inside the Kremlin as part of the Kremlin Archives.

To FARIS: 1) Damocles is only a targetting pod. ATFLIR is a navigation-cum-targetting pod. 2) Yes, they do, since their airframe are all quite sturdy in order to absorb the g-forces associated with multiple spins that they have to be subjected to whenever a trainee pilot is practicing spin-recovery procedures while in flight. 3) The US Navy’s & USMC’s F/A-18Ds do. For export customers such modes of operation are restricted. 4) Not at all. From the outset, the Su-27/Su-30 airframes were NEVER designed to undertake terrain-hugging flights. So why should the radar developer develop a multi-mode radar than offers terrain avoidance capabilities for such airframes? When an aircraft like the Su-34 is designed from the outset as a terrain-hugging deep interdictor, only then will the radar developer come up with a suitable solution. 5) Not initially. The reclamation works now being undertaken in the Paracels & Spratlys are first designed to host naval utility helicopters & Marine force detachments along with air-defence radars & MR-SAMs.6) Spares for those aircraft come from China, which still uses such aircraft (actually China-built clones) as unmanned aerial targets.

rad said...

to from lahore , raw13

You said no Indian calls himself an Indian but by his state and language, partly true . Well what about you guys , punjabi,sindhi,pashto,baluchi,ahmedi, mujahir etc etc!! after all you were indian once!!.
India will never collapse because of democracy,, please read reports from world bank etc and others that talk about a rising india,and i dont have to remind you that you are one of the most hated nationalities in the world along with north korea iran china etc.This hate is not only from india as you think.
You are saying islam unites pakistan, i am saying islam is destroying pakistan !!.You arseholes are fighting to be the most islamist and killing each other in the process.Take the taliban your creation and many other terror groups who kill your children in the name of islam,what about boko haram,al shabab,IS and the new mad dogs that have risen in the name of islam???80% of islamic nations are fighting one another or are fighting their own civilians in the name of islam!! yes or no??
Personally i dont want pakistan to collapse but remain like this.

to raw 13

You talked about the colonel who said Indian pilots were scared to go 1 to 1 with the Americans in cope India exercises,That was wish full thinking by the chap, because the Yanks were stunned by the Indians who won 90% of the engagements.The US airforce subsequently dis associated from the comments made by that officer! The Su-30 was designed to beat the f-15 and whats what it did.The combination of data linked old mig-21 with sukhois took them by surprise.I wont elaborate on this as it is on the web and old news.Read up and get your facts straight.
Wait till the rafales come in, your f-16 with amraams are going to be useless against them as the spectra ew suite can easily jam them and shoot the down with meteor missiles with nearly triple the range of the amraam!!., worry about that first .



Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: No need to wait for the Rafales for jamming AMRAAMs. Even the MiG-29UPG with internal ELT-568 jammer & upgraded Mirage 2000H/TH with a customised version of SPECTRA on-board can jam AMRAAMs.

rad said...

Hi Prasun
Yipee , i dint realize the
the mirages were being fitted with spectra , great!! should justify the great cost. Is it only india that got the spectra for its mirages or others as well like UAE, taiwan etc .
Now as we in, will france give us the meteor to arm the sukhoi ,? can we ask them to integrate it on the mirage ? the bigger question is will Russia allow and co operate to integrate it ?.how costly is it ?.I guess it is about 3 mil $ apiece . I have started to doubt the russian tech as they seem to have stagnated in missiles, when once they were ahead of the west.The other problem is they will hand over the same missile to the chinese as well.I am referring to the later version of the a-73 and r-77 missiles.

Abhishek Kumar said...

Sir which missile they are referring?
Is it something based on ground lunch ASTRA BVRAAM??
http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.aspx?get=new&id=OOE83FVevZ4=

Parikrama said...

VMT Prasun,

I guess you missed few sub questions

1. how a kit based assembling is actually a make in India in real sense? its same as Su30 MKI route.

2. Also how you arrived at production rate of 14 per year.

3. Can you share a bit more view on this whole consortium and production thing..to understand really the feasibility and cost reduction aspect.

4 You feel dassault would agree for 49% stake? (as per the economic times report

5. What is the final number you forsee to make it lucrative for the make in India route for the consortium

6. Who will bear the initial cost of setting up the plant and basic assembly line?

7. if the offset clasue is say 30% what do you forsee it to comprise of?

8 Will the spares be produced in India or in france? Will we see a repeat of Su30MKI experience where we are depending on russia for spares and of course inadequate stockpiling?

Biswajit Pattanaik said...

Hi Prasun,
Some updates on DRDO's fothcoming projects;
1) DRDO working on 7 EW systems:- EW Shakti; COMINT
‘Nayan’,‘Sarvadhari’;ESM ‘Tushar’, ‘Sarang’ & ‘Sarakshi’,
ESM & COMINT ‘Nikash’.
2) DRDO 6 types of munitions are being
designed,developed those are:- Nipun, Vibhav, Vishal, Parth,
Prachand and Ulka.
3) Solid Fuel Ducted Ramjet Propulsion(SFDR) being
developed Jointly with DRDO and Russia.

vishakh said...

Hi

There is report that Chian President will visit Pakistan and link 46Bn dollar of investment is it correct ???

Kaku Sh said...

PKS sir, check this official impression for P-15B

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCs59P_VIAAHhI7.jpg

Seems like no changes in weapon fitment.

raw13 said...

Hi Prasun,

Thank you for the comments. What do you make of the current issues in the IA, wrt promotions? It must be extremely demoralizing for the young officers and men.

Same also seems to be happening with IAF where $50m dollar planes crash because pilot and co-pilot are fighting. What is the issue?

Only our best make it to the Army. When one is KIA, it is a source of pride for family, friends and his unit. It is something Indians will never understand.

You should not worry that india will again go to its natural state of 20+ states with their own languages, culture, movies, etc...because, before god created earth, he created India :-).

dushyant hardaha said...

sir can you explain why separatist leader like masrat alam bhat gilani or are protected by state?

vishakh said...

hi

http://indianarmy.nic.in/writereaddata/RFI/433/RFIAAD070415.pdf

this RFI what type of Radars are expected???

Mayur M Manapure said...

Sir, I searched for SUPARCO online , but haven't been able to find much about it. What kind of R&D are they currently involved in. Do they have any of their own satellite or have a Chinese on lease?
And Raw13: Aur koi kaam nahi hai kya? Why do you want to make a fool out of yourself every time.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PARIKRAMA: 99.9% of your follow-on queries are all answered by the Raksha Mantri himself here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2udl1EHdZ2s&hd=1

In short, he has done his homework & has understood the core issues & has therefore echoed the SAME as what I have been saying for the past 3 years, which are:

1) There should never have been an open competitive bidding process that not only embarrasses all the participating contenders, but above all else, the IAF.

2) Competitive evaluations should have been done within IAF HQ itself based on written responses to the RFI. No RFP should have been issued at all & based on the IAF's recommendations, G-to-G negotiations should have commenced with the preferred contender.

3) The RM has for the first time openly stated that up to 100 Tejas Mk1s can eventually be ordered & I'm pretty certain this will be done to boost the IAF's close air-support capabilities following the withdrawal from service of the MiG-21Ms, MiG-27Ms & MiG-27UPGs. As you are aware, I had been advocating this line for far too long, albeit as a LIFT version that will enable the IAF to kill 2 birds with 1 stone by catering to its lead-in-fighter-training & close air-support mission reqmts.

4) If additional Tejas Mk1s are ordered, then the RM feels that HAL won't have much financial or human resources left to take up licenced-production of the Rafale. Therefore, a second aircraft production entity needs to be born to undertake such an effort. And for reasons I explained to you earlier, only a consortium of private-sector companies can muster the necessary financial resources within a short timeframe nfor kicking off such an effort. The DPSUs like HAL will then become vendors for this consortium.

5) Ultimately, it will emerge (perhaps in another interview to be given by the RM in future) that licenced-production of the entire airframe of Rafale is unnecessary & financially unviable, & therefore industrial efforts in India will be focussed only on MRO activities, future product improvements, & on the bulk production of rotables, consumables, lubricants & additives.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VISHAKH: No need for such anti-torpedo systems. Newer-generation hard-kill options from the likes of RAFAEL of Israel are available & are also less expensive. The IA's RFI is for replacements for the existing THALES Nederland-supplied Reporter LLAD radars. The LRDE & BEL can work together (if they want to) to slightly scale-up the existing BSFR by developing a larger antenna, mount it on a hydraulically raisable mast, & develop the necessary aerial target recognition algorithms like what has been done for the Arudhra & Ashwini radars.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: Had already explained it yesterday as part of my response to RAW13. Such elements are usually kept as Trojan Horses & can be bent & turned anytime as the need arises.

To MAYUR M MANAPURE: SUPARCO is another farcical creation like the Kahuta-based KRL. SUPARCO today specialises in what I refer to as 'MASTERLY INACTIVITY', i.e. doing nothing productive & its employees passing time by playing Solitaire on their workstations. Its's like KRL claiming since the early 1980s that it had successfully produced HEU, but when the time of reckoning came in May 1998, all of Pakistan's nuclear tests used plutonium as the weapons-grade fissile material! And mind you, at that time even the first PHWR at Khushab for producing plutonium was yet to become operational. And no one in Pakistan can till today explain what exactly happened to all of the HEU that Dr A Q 'Bhopali' Khan had earlier claimed to have produced at KRL, or from where exactly did Pakistan obtain the weapons-grade plutonium by mid-1998 when it never had any of its own plutonium-producing nuclear reactors in operation. Was HEU ever produced at all by KRL? Or were all the centrifuge designs stolen by Dr Khan from URENCO in the mid-1970s actually meant for supply to China for reverse-engineering? Not one SOB from Pakistan can provide any convincing answers to these questions.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Why Pakistan is the only so-called country with people who strongly applaud all those ferocious killers who killed their own ancestors.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: Why? Because (LoLz!) Pakistan is also the ONLY country in the world that:

1) Never has any qualms about using brute military firepower against its own citizens, be they the Bengalis of erstwhile East Pakistan or the tribal clans of FATA.

2) Never has any qualms about prostituting for its Firangi 'Mai Baaps' by secretly authorising US drone-strikes against its own citizens in FATA, while officially condemning them in public. More than 2,700 Pakistani civilians have died to date from such drone-strikes.

3) Fought a bloody military campaign against 'barader Islami' (brotherly) Palestinian refugees in September 1970 inside Jordan when King Hussein requested then Brig Mohd Zia-ul Haq to use the PA personnel under his command to operate Jordan's newly-received M-48 Patton tanks (of Jordan's second armoured brigade that was then being raised) for forcibly evicting the Palestinians from Jordan.

4) Organises funeral marches throughout the country for mourning the death of Osama Bin Laden ata time when no one else from the Muslim Ummah bothered to do so.

5) Has no hesitation in proliferating stolen WMD technologies & expertise to anyone who offers money, such as Iran & Libya.

6) Is perfectly happy to force its average citizens to eat grass for 1,000 years while its feudal elites blatantly expand their assets in the UAE, the US and Canada.

7) Is always prone to bask upon the reflected glories of fellow-Muslim Arabs, Turkish Turks, Chugtai Turks and Afghans, all of whom had brutally subjugated the native Muslims of the subcontinent without any remorse.

Pakistan's Kaumi tarana (national anthem) therefore ought to be: 'Saare jahan ka dard apne jigar mein loonga'.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Subhash Chandra Bose hote, to Pakistan naheen hota. To kitna achha hota.

sbm said...

Prasun, what is likely to be the total Tejas Mk.1 produced as well as 2 seat trainers ? Will additional Su-30s be ordered and when ? AIN is reporting that 30 more have already been sought. Are we likely to see Gripen pulling of a Tejas replacement coup ?

Will 189 Rafales come ? It isn't looking so hopeful now - maybe not even 126 might come.

Rajesh Mishra said...

With the new type of positive churning starting in to the minds of our new responsible leaders, it can really be hoped that they may soon procure more than 100 Tejas-Mk1 to fit into the most desired multiple roles of LIFT, CAS and even interception.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Those issues are now being trashed out & will be finalized by the time the IAF’s next Annual commanders’ conference is held, hopefully by late September this year. What is now clear beyond any doubt is that HAL cannot undertake series-production of both Tejas Mk1 & Rafale at the same time. Something has got to give. Better therefore for HAL to stick with the Tejas Mk1/Mk2 & LCA (Navy) Mk1/Mk2 & the projected Super Su-30MKI upgrade & IL-214 MRTA production programmes, while another brand-new industrial entity is created to handle the Rafale effort. 189 Rafales will indeed come over a 15-year period in successive tranches. And believe me when I say US$15 billion expenditure to be incurred over a 20-year period can definitely be affordable for a country that annual forks out US$60 billion for purchases of consumer electronics items!

Coming now to quantities of Tejas Mk1, it will depend upon the IAF’s preferred force-mix. Right now, the mix is quite lop-sided & will remain so till the end of this decade, since 60% of IAF’s authorised combat force will be comprised of Su-30MKI heavy-MRCAs, 20% by Rafale M-MRCAs and 20% by Tejas Mk1 light MRCAs. This needs correction. Consequently, I had pointed out to the MoD way back in 2011 itself that the quantum of Tejas Mk1s, especially the tandem-seaters, needs to be increased to at least 90 so as to serve as dual-purpose LIFT platforms as well as CAS platforms. However, unknown to me, HAL was then planning an upgrade project for the IAF’s Hawk Mk132s under which they would be lightly armed. This upgrade plan was showcased publicly for the very first time last February at Aero India 2015. Now, common-sense & logical reasoning will dictate that in the event of a competitive flyoff between an armed Tejas Mk1 LIFT & armed Hawk Mk132, the former will emerge tops in every parameter. The RM has obviously take cognizance of this matter & therefore, the production run of Tejas Mk1 can now be expected to be increased to attain a total fleet strength of 100 (inclusive of the 40 already on order).

Additional Su-30MKIs will definitely be procured as per the IAF’s projected total Su-30MKI fleet strength of 350. As for the Gripen, forget it, period & permanently. The problem with Tejas Mk1’s airframe design is that suffers from having one of the lowest aspect ratios ever in any MRCA, thereby resulting in high induced drag during air combat. This in turn affects theTejas Mk1’s manoeuvrability in the supersonic flight regime as well & therefore the only available fixes are either incorporation of TVC, or canards—both of which are impossible for incorporation at this stage. If only ADA had accepted the design inputs from GE Aero Engines way back in the latter half of the 1980s, such deficiencies would not have cropped up. So now a thorough redesign of the Tejas Mk2’s airframe is necessary, especially its wing design so as to avoid incorporation of TVC or canards. All said & done, the Tejas Mk2 will therefore be required to undergo 3,500 hours of flight-tests.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: Application of mind by taking resort to common-sense & logical reasoning is all that's reqd for problem-solving. But it is now evident that even this was too much to expect from UPA-1/UPA-2!

sbm said...

Thank you Prasun.

To follow up, is the total of Su-30 now around 210 with 10 sqn fully equipped and is the RM correct in saying availability should reach 70% by year end ?

When will Tejas gun and BVR tests take place ? There is no reason why either will not be successful.

The Hawk arming is to me an interesting plan that could see ASRAAM and Litening pods integrated - the 30mm Aden is already integrated as is the Matra SNEB pod of 68mm rockets.

The utility of such an aircraft, however, is not so apparent to me. The flexibility should be allowed but counting the Hawks on the combat line seems a bit odd.

On to SAMs, what is the plan for Akash, MRSAM and LRSAM for the IAF - how many sqn and in what time frame ?

It is still too early to tell - and he will make mistakes - but this RM seems to at least try to deal with issues properly.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VISHAKH: Those are all indicative ballpark figures. Any such investment by China into Pakistan will likely be spread over more than 25 years & that too AFTER all-weather tunneling is completed along the Khunjerab Pass, which itself is a highly seismically active area.

To RAW13: On the contrary, it is a far better situation where the legal justice system prevails & all concerned get to have their fair say. Very much unlike the PA in which the COAS has the final say & none of his Corps Commanders dare oppose him, since he has the power to dismiss them from service & none of the COAS’ subordinates has any further legal recourse left. Consequently, no Corps Commander ever provides a dissenting view to the COAS for fear of losing his job.

I entirely agree with you 100% that only the best of Pakistan make it to the PA. That’s why the system has produced the likes of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, Gen Yahya Khan, Lt Gen A A K Niazi, Gen Mohd Zia ul-Haq & Gen Pervez Musharraf—none of whom had ever achieved any military victory of any significance. Whole world knows their misdeeds & miscalculations. They may well have done some brilliant tactical planning, but all of them ended up making gigantic strategic blunders, i.e. trying to make short-term gains while being blissfully ignorant about the long-term disastrous consequences.

KIA for a just & righteous cause & KIA while fighting for a self-righteous & self-defeating cause are two opposing poles, which even the Holy Prophet will attest to. While the ‘kafir’ & ‘bania’ Indians understand & practice the former as part of the ‘Dharma’ (or Imaan) ethos, the PA & its ‘sarkari Jihadis’ practice the latter. No wonder Allah has always sided with India since 1947. BTW, here’s another example of how Allah has sided 100% with India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LeA8eQV4CQ&hd=1

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Interesting innovation:

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russia-straps-a-jet-engine-to-a-tractor-to-clean-carrie-1698096181

Wonder if HAL can do a similar innovation for INS Vikramaditya by using a R-R Orpheus engine (of the Folland Gnat) for a similar purpose.

Meanwhile, looks like the UAE may follow Qatar in seeking certain security guarantees from India:

http://news.yahoo.com/progress-rafale-jet-talks-uae-france-says-103936107.html

Other interesting tit-bits:

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2015/04/15/Radar-jamming-decoy-system-completes-testing/1081429121617/

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-32334186

To RAD: Russia still has cutting-edge know-how for developing hypersonic BVRAAMs. Russia had developed BVRAAMs like the Meteor by the late 1980s itself. And Russia will never export such hardware to China because China too is actively developing such next-generation BVRAAMs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Yes, just about there. 70% fleet availability for Su-30MKI is indeed achievable if HAL’s earlier proposal for maintaining bonded warehouses stockpiled with rotables & consumables are swiftly implemented. Gunnery & BVRAAM firing trials will begin next month & last up to December due to the need for conducting hot-weather & cold-weather trials over Rajasthan & Ladakh. Rergarding Hawk Mk132 arming, there’s just not enough pylons available for carrying Litening-2s & Griffin-3 LGBs & consequently the platform becomes uneconomical to operate. Tejas Mk1 on the other hand can haul a Litening-2, a centreline fuel-tank, 2 x R-73E, plus 6 Griffin-3s. Calculating the total reqd quantum of Akash Mk1s & Barak-2 LR-SAMs is still work in progress. Certainly follow-on orders for both will be placed in future.

sbm said...

Add to that even a Tejas LIFT with radar, Derbys and R-73s is no slouch in A2A combat even if not aerodynamically ideal.

On the SAMs, what orders have been placed so far ?

Agnivesh Gupte said...

@ Prasun
Not all Pakistanis are like this. I've been sharing your responses to the pakistani contributors on this blog with a pakistani guy I share my apartment with, and he COMPLETELY agrees with you!

Food for thought for our pakistani contributors here don't you think?

raw13 said...

Further to what I had mentioned wrt small team actions. This is really improving the capabilities:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/to-fight-the-taliban-pakistani-military-turns-to-unorthodox-but-simple-tactics/2015/04/15/eac5b088-e1ee-11e4-ae0f-f8c46aa8c3a4_story.html

Prasun, its good to know your army is goign down this route.

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.be/2015/04/army-divided-against-army-bjp-against.html

raw13 said...

This ladies & gentlemen is a game changer:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-unveil-billions-of-dollars-in-pakistan-investment-1429214705

lets have the positive indian comments :-).

One thing for sure, Indian trying to be the big boy of south asia, will need another game plan.

rad said...

HI Prasun
Please elaborate on the phosphoric acid type AIP system that has been developed . Why is it that drdo has gone with the new type not done by others.from what i have read it seems this type has less power density .

lachit said...

@raw13

"Don’t Make LoC Permanent, We Want to be in India"

Kashmiri separatist Masarat Alam, who was spotted raising Pakistan flag in Srinagar on Wednesday, may not have heard about Senge Hasnan Sering, a ‘rights defender’ from Gilgit Baltistan in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) on the other side of Line of Control (LoC). He needs to learn from the president of Institute of Gilgit Baltistan Studies (IGBS) some lessons on attachment towards India.

Sering, who is fighting against Islamabad’s atrocities against the people of mineral rich Gilgit Baltistan, is a strong advocate of the region’s merger with India. His only regret is that neither Indian government nor the people of India are seriously interested in the merger.

“There is a feeling in Gilgit Baltistan that the region should get the status of an independent country. In an indirect way, India is responsible for this feeling. We want to be a part of India but the Indian government is mulling making the LoC an international border,” Sering said. Born in Skardu in Gilgit, Sering completed his studies in Pakistan before securing US citizenship in 2008. Headquartered in Washington DC, the IGBS works for the betterment of the people from Gilgit Baltistan, an Indian territory forcibly occupied by Pakistan since 1947. During his one-month-long tour to India, Sering was in the city on Thursday.

“Pakistan treats Gilgit Baltistan as its colony. We don’t have any facility for higher education. As Pakistan has announced that it is a disputed area, we are not citizens of Pakistan. The region is run as per the executive orders by Pakistan’s Minister of Kashmir Affairs. Even if someone raises his voice for legitimate demands, he is imprisoned on sedition charges,” Sering said.

Now, his immediate goal is to attract the world’s attention towards ‘illegal’ elections to be held in Gilgit Baltistan in June.


SOURCE: EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE




@Agnivesh Gupte said...

one or two good pakistanis or even a few lakhs wont make any difference compared to the millions of war mongering jihadi pakistanis.

did they make any difference during
1947,1965,1971,bombay serial blasts,mumbai carnage,insugency in kashmir

BTW who will u value more?
your pakistani friend or a indian soldier who died fighting the terrorists in kashmir.

rad said...

to raw13

China investing billions of $ is not for the welfare of pakistan but for itself,and you happen to be a pawn in the whole game,In fact you will be a perpetual slave of the chinese. Its all right as you have been a slave of USA and Saudi all your life and now china, go ahead. No self respecting free world gov will ever invest in your country when that happens i will appreciate when it happens .
whether you like it or not India is another big boy in asia,we are not aspiring ,we are .
Separatists will raise your flag in J&K due to the Pak arse licking gov which unfortunately is supported by the BJP. It is a matter of time when before it will pull out .
Every time a militant is shot by the army then he becomes a matyr and mad dogs will call for a bandh !. You think rest of india gives a shit whether there is a bandh or not?.
The army will keep sending these types to heaven rest assured .
some times i think we should follow your policy of shooting such anti national people throw the body on the road and deny like you do in Baluchistan and other places .
Ajay shukla is a crank and has his own interpretation of affairs, after all he is a wannabe journalist and has to write some thing. But this country being a democratic, any body can write any thing.
In your country If you say something about ISI, army or the Taliban or the gov, we all know what will happen to you! why dont you try it!!??

Raman said...

A few more silly questions please:

(1) Now that all 10 C-17's have arrived......any chance of ordering a few (4-6) more ??

(2) Do you expect anything to happen on the Tata-Airbus C295 proposal ??

(3) Any progress on the M-1977, LWH BAE had now offered to shift it's plant to India for their "make in India" ??

(4) A recent Article in Jane's on the Jaguar upgrade, mentions that in addition to the CBU's, India has ordered the Asraam in July 2014 for $340 million....also, during the Aero India 15, a MBDA (in an interview)director mentioned that such a deal had been finalized...any truth in all this ??

(5) Also, it's nice to see Raw13/From Lahore so worried/interested in India.....

Biswajit Pattanaik said...

@raw13
We r already d big boy of SA mr ignorant.
Those who r chanting pak slogans r minority even in mus dominated kashmir; looks like ur not aware of ground realities.All these protets are superfacial in nature bro,u need to cool down.
All those cases happening in courts r a good sign bcoz those issues will b settled once & for all,plus its shows we as a nation with a well functioning democracy r maturing & r on right track.Not like your's pseudo democracy; where nobody is allowed even to have an opinion.
We all Indians want not only Pak but all of SAARAC nations to develop,no jealousy about that.But the thing is Pakistan don't understand those things,bcoz it requires cool head,common sense,good intellect level etc,.... which ur ruling power r not blessed with (Govt.+Army).You guys have very high level of TQ.....

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

(1) In reply to a fellow poster you said

The IA's RFI is for replacements for the existing THALES Nederland-supplied Reporter LLAD radars

Which foreign OEMs do you think can provide the best solution? I remember Terma,Denmark had supplied similar radars to India in the past.

(2)Russia & Pakistan are having joint military exercises. It seems Russia is desperate to sell weapons to Pakistan & is using these exercises to showcase them, just like the US

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/Pakistan-Russia-to-hold-first-ever-joint-military-exercise/articleshow/46944556.cms

(3) Some nice pics of the S-400 & Russian Air Defense Command Center

http://forums.eagle.ru/showthread.php?t=91925&page=46

Regards,

Vikram

Rituraj said...

Prasun,

If this news is the trend of things to come for light combat fighter, it will sound death knell for Indian domestic industry.

RPT-Fighter jet makers eye Indian riches after scaled-back French deal:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/16/india-defence-idUSL4N0XD4TO20150416

If Mr Parrikar goes on this route and leaves LCA Tejas in lurch, there is no bigger crime against nation than this. It is becoming a heady mix of several things -

If you see, even HAL is slowing down the production to get rid of the plane. It has not delivered SP-2 in March and missed the deadline. HAL is quite happy doing screwdriver production of any crappy plane and as LCA Tejas is ADA's baby, all attempts are being made to kill it ASAP. IAF already hates it because it hits their Firaang love.

If such is Mr Modi's wish, why is he doing this drama of Make in India? It is so shameful that there is a wide market of this plane in developing countries buut it is being squandered so grossly. What a shame !!!

sujoymajumdar said...

Prasunda,

China's premier weapons against India is the DF-16 and some IRBMs with ranges of 4000 kms+.

Infact they are increasing their stockpile of missiles(TBMs, Cruise)on a regular basis.Simultaneously they are increasing their SAMs as well including the induction of S400.

Notice that China is not making large scale induction of fighter aircraft.

Why can't India too increase it's arsenal of TBMs, Cruise Missiles and SAMs drastically instead of being obsessed with Rafales and LCAs?

Very Many Thanks

raw13 said...

@rad,

When the chinese president was in India, modi couldnt do enough for him, even when PLA was marching into indian territory. Only the brave sections of India media asked why indians PM is behaving like a 'misqeen' and bending over. Why, to get investment!!! Do you know what will happen once this infrastructure gets built? You will need to buy lots more Rafael's or will they be 'Make in India'

Ajay Shukla, is real. He was in IA, he served! what have you done with life. You are what we call in pakistan a nitwit, a parasite who lives on hatred and division.

raw13 said...

@lachit,

would you like me post links of Khalistan movement members in UK, Canada, from now to last 30yrs? or maybe Bihar movement or the independent Tamil Nadu statemovment, from UK.

You are clutching at broken straws. With the way your army continues to execute kashmiri youth, I am surprised the whole world isn't interested in joining india.

Now if you want to know about pakistan and its people, from top to bottom (including GB), read this book (free pdf can search for):

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Pakistan-Hard-Country-Anatol-Lieven/dp/0141038241

@Bisjwait,

Ask Prasun, what is allowed in pak media or not, he watches it. India is big but it has been check mated and will continue to be solely to SA. Our agenda is simple give our people freedon and you can be whatever you want to be.

I think it would eb great to see development in whole of SA, but first Kashmir

Ulser said...

Sir, what exactly is going on with the AW-101 deal? you had said there were talks going in between the MoD and AW about sorting this mess out and getting them into service but there has been zero indication of this to date and meanwhile the PM continues to fly in junk (Mi-8s).

Now the GoI has shown a interest in G-G deals, I guess the next time he visits the US we should expect a G-G deal (through FMS) for S-92s to solve this entire mess?

Biswajit Pattanaik said...

@raw13
I know what happens in Pak Media leaving alone d Dawn network (and their is big difference in what is shown in English media & Urdu media) no other network is any good,they are comparable to Indian media major of whom r junk.
To say India have been check mated is just a big fat joke,looks like you are living in a fantasy land good for u.
To give freedom to whom,those are not ur people,in the same vein give freedom to our people in PoK & GB.How about that hun?
And we are doing whatever we want do it ;can't u guys see it.
Why only Kashmir? Why not Jammu,Ladkah,PoK & GB?
As i had already said above u are not aware of ground realities bcoz of ur fixiation with word "K".
In ur past u guys had USA as ur master,in the present GCC r diciating u & in the future it b d Chinese;so in essence u guys will remain pawn.

pm said...

http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news-internal.aspx?id=YbZi%2FBmkRfQ%3D

sir,what is your opinion about above article?

lachit said...

@RAW13

save ur breath.
i am not the least bit interested in PORKISTAN.

and did u know during the cold war days in order to garn personal favours from US and western countries your leaders used to PIMP OUT girls and women from POK especially from gilgit.it is well documented.
and now tell me how low u all can fall.
and now its payback time and those girls are surely smiling from where ever they are. paybacks a bitch huh!(jaise karne waise bharni)
http://i.imgur.com/VHVCUUy.jpg


also unlike other indians,
for me THE ONLY GOOD PAKISTANI IS A DEAD PAKISTANI

Mayur M Manapure said...

Fellow Indians, please don't use cuss words, apni zabaan na kharab kare in namuno ke liye.
They are in living in denial for so long that some of them arent still overeast Pakistan exists. It's just matter of time Pakistan will again be trifurcated. Baluchistan, Sindhi desh and A Northern Punjab. Its just matter of time.
On a serious note, don't you think instead of spending exorbitantly on bullet trains, what govt should do is strengthen air connectivity between tier 1 and 2 cities. The NAL's passenger airliner project should be given a serious thought minus HAL (Mahindra would be a better Partner) .

Kaku Sh said...

Pks sir seems like Af-Pak friendship going to end.

Sir your view on this
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/Pmks2oRa0SmCUnraNOa8gI/Afghan-president-Ashraf-Ghani-likely-to-visit-India-on-27-Ap.html

Puller said...

Sir it seems you were wrong, no more Scorpenes, certainly not 3 more:

http://armingindia.com/No-Follow-On-Orders-For-Scorpene-Submarines-17-04-15.htm

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: The WVRAAM’s off-boresight target lock-on capability combined with HMDS was primarily developed by the Israelis & Russians first after a deep analysis of air combat lessons learnt since the early 1970s that pointed to the need for such force-multipliers in the low-level air combat scenario, typically between 5,000 feet ASL & 16,000 feet ASL where only those combat aircraft with high thrust-to-weight ratios would not face significant manoeuvrability deficiencies. On the other hand, lighter MRCAs like Tejas Mk1 will face problems due to slower climb-rates & lesser instantaneous & sustained turn-rates. This is where the R-73E/Targo HMDS combination makes up for the aircraft’s deficiencies & acts as a force multiplier between 5,000 feet & 16,000 feet—the altitudes at which air combat usually takes place.

As for SAM orders, situation is the as the last time you had asked. Further clarity on this issue will emerge only by late September.

To AGNIVESH GUPTE: Of course they are not. You’re absolutely right. There are sufficient numbers of English-educated discerning Pakistanis who are educated & liberated enough to understand & accept that it is very much possible to be a patriotic Pakistani without hating India & that the prosperity of one will automatically lead to the prosperity of another, i.e. I can prosper only if my neighbor too prospers. But the grand majority of Pakistanis do not have access to English education & are therefore forced to, from day 1 of their schooling days, absorb all the anti-India mumbo-jumbo splashed out in Urdu newspapers & through the madrassas. This is the genesis of brainwashing in a country that has never transitioned from a national security state to a welfare state. And it is this brainwashed segment of the population that end up as ‘sarkari jihadis’ or proxy mercenaries of the Pakistan Army. That’s why Pakistani journalists who criticize the country’s civilian & military decision-makers in local English language newspapers & foreign talk-shows are never murdered. But the moment such journalists start voicing the very same opinions in Urdu language dailies or talk-shows, they’re brutally murdered or become missing persons because they are seen as trying to introduce a sense of sanity into the brainwashed masses—the core constituency of the PA.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: Small-team actions by the PA against a ragtag bunch of guerrillas? I’m highly surprised the PA is spearheading the anti-terror campaign when this could easily have been done by the Frontier Corps or Pak Rangers. In India COIN operations are always undertaken by Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF), & never by the IA. The IA’s route for the future will be determined by Allah as was the case in the past as well, kindly rest assured. If you still don’t believe me, then here’s a follow-up to what I had posted yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSRButxpaXI

It therefore doesn’t matter where the IA is going or heading for. What matters in the end is the IA is sitting atop the Saltoro Range while the PA is sitting much lower at 16,000 feet ASL at Dansum. Laws of physics therefore dictate that in any offensive scenario, the one who attacks from above prevails over the one below. If you still can’t believe this, then by all means request your COAS Gen Raheel Sharif to give it a shot.

As for game-changers, yes, indeed China will pump all that money, BUT NOT into Pakistan’s economy, but into China’s economy. Not a single Pakistani will ever be employed by any Chinese company as the projected construction projects are all turn-key in nature. China will bring in its own hardware & human resources & make sure that 95% of the investments flow back into China. History will therefore be repeated just like it was in 2006 after the inking of the China-Pakistan FTA, following which Pakistan’s manufacturing sector was decimated. This is how it has always been worldwide, & this is how it will continue. Here, read this:

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/china-pakistan-kashmir-beijing-economic-corridor/1/427045.html

India is not trying to be the big boy. India is the big boy that even China now recognises. That’s precisely why President Xi Jinping will soon give a bitter doze of reality-check in Islamabad. How exactly? Well, here are the details from Beijing-based officials:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/China-reviewing-policy-on-Mumbai-attack-ahead-of-Xi-visit-to-Pakistan/articleshow/46948073.cms

Lastly, here’s the ultimate game-changer: The First Lady of the Republic of Afghanistan, Ms. Rula Ghani meeting Smt. Salma Ansari, spouse of the Vice President of India, at Vice President’s House, in New Delhi on April 16, 2015. And here’s the photo:

http://pib.nic.in/photo/2015/Apr/l2015041664431.jpg

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PULLER: Was I? The report you’ve quoted says no more Scorpenes. It doesn’t say no more SSKs of the Scorpene family. Huge difference between the two. Why? Because the IN has always maintained its need for AIP-equipped SSKs. And AIP-equipped Scorpene is not known as Scorpene SSK, but the term used is ‘Super Scorpene’. And if we are to believe that the MoD has now "reworked" the original 30-year diesel-electric submarine-building plan (which was approved by the CCS in 1999 & had envisaged the induction of 12 new SSKs by 2012, followed by another dozen by 2030) & has decided to go in for six SSNs and 18 SSKs, that still can’t account for 18, since 6 Scorpenes + 6 AIP-equipped P-75I SSKs + four upgraded Class 209/Type 1500 SSKs doesn’t add up to 18. The empty slot for 2 more SSKs still needs to be accounted for. My suggestion to you: pose this question to the jackass who wrote that news-report & ask him to elaborate further.

Agnivesh Gupte said...

@ lachit
He's not my friend. He's just a housemate who happens to be a Pakistani.

@ Prasun
Again he agrees with your assessment. In fact he told me that most folks over there are afraid of speaking their mind fearing they might go against THE narrative.

His own example is that his own uncles would not hesitate to kill him if they were to somehow know what he really thinks about the state & history et al (guy is from full military family).

That is why folks like him appear as minorities to folks like us. They're afraid of speaking their own minds. I have to agree they still have to work towards transforming their country into a welfare state.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Why? Because the DRDO firmly believes that it has been blessed with divine all-knowing wisdom.

To LACHIT: I can now confirm to you that certain India-based NGOs have begun supporting various intellectuals & think-tanks (of Gilgit-Baltistan origin who are based in North America, Scandinavia & Western Europe) with academic & financial resources to come out with eye-witness accounts of all the rape & plunder of Gilgit-Baltistan over the years, especially since the early 1980s. With each passing day, this movement will surely get stronger & more cohesive. Even China cannot do anything to stop this. Back in 2009 China began issuing stapled visas to residents of J & K, hoping that this will pressurise India to compromise with Pakistan on the J & K issue. But when India retaliated by making it known to China that this will force India to rethink her ‘One China’ policy & her policy on TAR, Beijing in 2010 backed off & stopped issuing stapled visas. Clearly Beijing has now realised that if China wants to be the ‘big boy’ in the South China Sea, then it has to apply the same principle WRT the J & K issue, i.e. India is the big boy in that part of the world, no matter how much Pakistan whines & frets.

To RAMAN: 1) There’s no need for additional C-17As if the IAF is allowed to acquire 10 A330-220 MRTTs. 2) Not immediately. As I had explained earlier, if the IAF requires such aircraft only for executive transport of its senior officers& their accompanying staff, then why acquire lumbering twin-turboprops? Instead, why not acquire a couple of Embraer EMB-145s? 3) Just agreeing to set up manufacturing facilities in India for the LW-155/M-777 isn’t enough. For it to become reality, India needs to enact new legislation in Parliament that will allow BAE Systems to supply spares from India for this howitzer to all existing customers of this howitzer, i.e. transparent & detailed military hardware export policy guidelines of the type that are presently non-existent. 4) Yup. AIM-132 ASRAAMs have been ordered for the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3. 5) RAW13 isn’t interested in India; rather he’s fatally obsessed & therefore almost everytime ends up trying to defend the indefensible.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) Best solution can easily be provided by a LRDE-BEL team provided they roll off their sleeves & get cracking ASAP along the lines I had suggested yesterday. Even for such basic reqmts no imported options should be entertained. Why? Because they will yet again make India the world’s laughing stock by proving that a country capable of developing limousines is incapable of developing far less complicated sedans. Imagine R & D institutions & production OEMs developing & making various types of far more complex PESA & AESA air-defence radars & LRTRs & being unable, on the other hand, to develop tactical LLAD radars! 2) Those are counter-terror exercises under the auspices of SCO & don’t count much. They’re definitely not like the INDRA series of exercises between India & Russia. 3) VMT.

To RITURAJ: That news-report was filed BEFORE the interview of RM Manohar Parrikar by NDTV 48 hours ago. Therefore, it is a highly speculative news-report full of erroneous assumptions. There’s no ‘drama’ by anyone about ‘Make in India’ anymore. Such dramas were staged between 1956 & 2014, not anymore. For the past 48 hours, the entire management team of HAL along with the Tejas/LCA (Navy) project directors have been camping in New Delhi after being urgently summoned by the RM.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Of course China needs to acquire the S-400 ASAP in order to counter the USAF’s arsenal of high-altitude hypersonic manned/unmanned recce aircraft. Did you know that the SR-74 could attain Mach 17 way back in the late 1980s? India only needs to take into account the PLA 2nd Rocket Artillery Corps’ strategic arsenal of DF-21 MRBMs & CJ-10 cruise missiles & tactical NLOS-BSMs. China’s TBMs won’t be effective against India. While the Agni-4 MRBM is on line for service-induction in the near future, India is lagging behind in terms of cruise missile deployments. In the NLOS-BSM arena, both the IA & IAF have begun inducting BrahMos-1 Block-3s.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: During President Xi Jinping’s visit to India last September, no PLA contingent ever marched into Indian territory. All that had taken place were a few nomadic Tibetans from the Chinese side in eastern Ladakh were marshalled by the PLA’s Border Defence Regiments & coerced into standing opposite the India-administered part of eastern Ladakh in the Demchok area & make a semblance of protests with banners.

About infrastructure development in PoK, as it is the Karakoram Highway is open for only 5 months in a year. Construction of all-weather roadways will involve extensive tunnelling in a seismically active/unstable area that itself will provoke several more earthquakes & landslides. Therefore, let’s not jump to any premature conclusions & instead wait for the conclusions of the feasibility studies now being conducted by Chinese geologists based in Peshawar.

To ULSER: Negotiations are still underway for calculating the liquidated damages to be paid by AgustaWestland to the MoD. Such matters could not be discussed for as long as the Italian court was bin session for hearing the points of the state prosecution & the defendants. Now that the verdict has been delivered, it is crystal-clear that AgustaWestland was trying to dodge its financial obligations when it came to its 30% direct industrial offsets commitments made to the MoD in the AW-101 procurement contract. That’s precisely why AgustaWestland’s India-based lawyer & the CEO of Barclays Bank’s India office are now being investigated & querstioned. All this would not have been possible to be unearthed had crucial evidence not been supplied by Italian prosecutors.

To MAYUR MANAPURE: Why should NAL’s regional commuter airliner be given any serious thought when TATA is already on its way to producing in India the Dornier 328’s turboprop-powered & turbofan-powered versions? NAL is a scientific R & D institution & therefore has only scientists. It does not possess any industrial production engineering expertise nor qualified aeronautical engineers. And that’s precisely why the Saras project has been a total failure. Even though the aircraft’s design came from Russia, NAL was still unable to undertake optimal airframe engineering & therefore ended up making the Saras overweight.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAKU SH: No none should pray for the AF-PAK friendship to end. Instead, it should be encouraged provided Pakistan is sincere & honest about helping Afghanistan & therefore stops its long-standing treachery & back-stabbing of Afghanistan that first began in the mid-1970s under then PM Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. But if old habits die hard, then the bull will need to be grabbed by its horns. Thanks to Iran & India, the alternative all-weather land transportation route to Central Asia via Afghanistan is open & fully operational. Iran can easily use its influence & resources to provide security for this transportation route. The only weak spot is Afghanistan’s northwestern region & the Bamiyan areas. If Afghanistan indeed wants India & China to undertake extensive minerals-mining activities there, then this will call for the provision of close air-support, which the Afghan Air Force cannot presently provide to the Afghan National Army. Therefore, if President Ashraf Ghani requests India’s assistance in this matter, then I foresee India agreeing to station about four Mi-25 helicopter-gunships in the Mazar-e-Sharif area & up to six MiG-29UPGs at the air base in Ayni inside Tajikistan for guaranteeing tactical air superiority. Contingency plans to this effect have already been drafted by IAF HQ. If China decides to join in & contribute similar assets under President Xi Jinping policy initiative called ‘creative involvement’, then even better.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Interesting cost-effective LLAD innovation:

https://www.yahoo.com/autos/s/us-navy-humvee-mounted-anti-drone-laser-143046717.html

vishakh said...

Hi

Can you explain exactly what problem does Tejas MK 2 Frame has for which it needs Carnards or TVC . Is it critical issue or can be delt with some other means ???

Have you had Discussion with ADA weather they are looking into it ??

Compared to F16 52+ and Griphen how is tejas stacked in Range , Radar and weapons.

rad said...

to raw13

Modi was just nice to the chinese guy.
If you call it bending backward , so be it.Who told you chinese marched into india, they did and we face them eye ball to eye ball they set camp we set camp opposite to them.The blinked and moved back. The commander who ordered the incursion had a serious dressing down as it was perceived that the leader had no control over his forces while visiting india , .In fact that was a great insult to the leader, he was red faced and had no answer when the press quizzed him.They initially strung banners in English telling us to go back as it is Chinese territory.We gave it back with posters in chinese telling that to go back. There are no demarcated lines as both sides cross into each others perceived loc. The chinese also complain the indians come to their territory , that hardly is noticed by the indian media.
Any soft response perceived was because of the then gov run by a firangi woman with a wimp of a rubber stamp PM.
I bet they will think twice to do it now as they will get a firm response.
The 6 subs that you are getting is a bribe to allow them to create their trade route,we all know that. They will employ chinese labor not one single pakistani will be involved. It is to strengthen their economy not yours ,you think chinese are stupid to dump billions in Pak!? wake up man.! May be they will buy some cement and steel at the most to show the public.It has happened in sri lanka and the maldives . Now those chaps are realizing that they have been exploited!
your wish full thinking of khalistan and seperate states are by some crack pots living outside india that are wanted for terrorism ,They will be sen to heaven if they come back.We in India just laugh at this.
no body gives a damn.we have better t hings to do.
Yes i am filled with hatred to people who kill in the name of religion and have terrorism as their state policy.If that is being a nitwit so be it.

Raman said...

Thanks for the quick reply.

(1) Yes, 10 A-330 MRTT's make more sense than going in more C-17's;
(2) Hope the Jaguars get upengined with the F125's quickly...will take at least a couple of years to start getting the engines + IAF to establish new SOP's; Will HAL manufacture most of them in India or will it go to some Private Sector company ??

(3) Thank God the Mountain 'strike' Corps is being halved....really makes no sense to keeping adding manpower, need better equipped/better trained/smarter quality -then just adding numbers,use the money saved for firepower they need. In any case, All this needs to be dovetailed with an overall Plan to handle China/Pakistan...and until we have a comprehensive Goal/Plan we will keep kneejerking...

(4) Guess the present PM+RM (plus Jetly)...seem to have taken one thing at a time...Navy first...and now the AirForce....and, finally the Army...

Let's hope for the Best......

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

back with lot of question this time, hope to get the answers.

1. Heard DRDO is working on 200-250 km VLRSAM as well as Surface Launched Astra, any news on that

2. What happened to the Prithvi 3 NLOS BSM

3. Below link proves beyond doubt about the condition is Gilgit Baltistan, but if the vote goes ahead in June, wont it affect India's claim

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/Dont-Make-LoC-Permanent-We-Want-to-be-in-India/2015/04/17/article2768515.ece

4. IAF jet inventory should ideally read
Su30mki/SuSuper30mki 350
Rafale 200
LCAmk1/2 250
AMCA 200
PAKFA/FGFA 150

barely it touches 55 squadrons but if at all IAF wants to get anywhere near what is the timeframe. i dont see this happening by 2035/40

5. what you said to #PULLER, i think remaining 2 will come off the shelf from French shipyards, just like Rafale

6. Heard the RM wants to cut the MSC by half, from 64000 new recruits to 35000 new recruits. i think he heard your advise. 35000 new recruits with remaining derived from southern command.

7. Regarding what you said to #KAKU SH wasnt the Farkhor/Ayni airbases post development transferred back to respective
nations

8. Some reports say if Rafales future deal is stuck RM will go for mini MRCA deal, how true is that

9. Does Brahmos NG/Mini has future export potential apart from meeting IAF/IN/IA needs

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Rajesh Mishra said...

Years ago the LCA (Tejas) designers were claiming that the Levcons provided in the design were sufficient for all practical purposes of the aircraft and Canards were absolutely not required. TVC perhaps at that time was not much in vogue. Moreover I always suspected that the air inlet suction area was going to be insufficient at some critical stage of the maneuvers and operations. Isolated designers in those days were prone to make such initial mistakes lacking foresight.

Kaku Sh said...

Pks sir,
some queries

1) Farkhor AFB is still operational and still under control of India?

2) What would be China and Pakistan reaction if deploy MiG-29 officially there?

3)Pakistan will not create the havoc on deployment of Indian jets in Tajikistan?

Sir a different question

What you see way forward in India Iran relations and about Chabahar, in a situation when we see the Pak-Iran relation going to deteriorate.

Prav said...

Prasun Sir
I remember that you has lamented the fact that Indias AESA efforts are too narrow .That despite having an airborne radar no ship mounted indigenous system is in the works . What would it take DRDO to develop such a radar?
Also is there a preliminary design for destroyers that will follow the project 15 B destroyers ?

Prav said...

Also you had said that the F404 engine production line is closing . From where will HAL find engines for an expanded LCA MK1 order ?

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

I was sheer pleasure reading latest on Rafale and its future in IAF. thanks for that

1. You mentioned that India won't need C-17 if it can have A330 MRTT but my point is can it match C-17 when it comes to landing and take off from dirt runway or small runways like of which we have in North east and J&K, Uttarakhand.

2. Given the option what will you choose between AMCA & PAK-FA as platform for 5th Generation aircraft.

Regards,


Rituraj said...

Prasun,

Another ex-IAF fellow singing the same tune:

https://www.myind.net/rafale-and-rationale-another-light-weight-fighter

looks like Gripen or anyone else is coming for sure!!

Maverick said...

Prasun,

You mentioned SR-74 attaining 17 Mach.....but I was only aware if SR-71 which reaches about 4 mach. Can you provide any more info or links on this.

If US has a 17 Mach aircraft back in 1980's then what did USSR had to counter this.

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