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Tuesday, October 13, 2015

The IAF’s Perception Management Disconnect & Its Plans For TMD Network

The customary press conference given by the Chief of the Air Staff (CAS) of the Indian Air Force (IAF) every year prior to Air Force Day (which falls on October 8) by and large targets contemporary issues on the balance-of-airpower in the subcontinent and the more glamorous and glitzy issues regarding the IAF’s on-going force modernisation efforts and future plans. However, issues regarded as ‘esoteric’ by the mainstream media in India are very rarely raised and explored. This was exactly the case on October 3, when not a single question was asked, for instance, about the IAF’s thinking and desired forcer posture regarding theatre missile defence (TMD), or about the fate of the An-32RE tactical transport aircraft upgrade, or about the IAF’s roadmap for the large-scale induction of various types of simulation systems and part-task trainers for both frontline combat/transport aircraft and helicopters, as well as those related to standoff precision-guided munitions (PGM). Nor did the CAS, Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha, bother to throw any light on such issues through his prepared narrative that was read out by him prior to the question-and-answer session.  
Therefore, this is a honest effort by your’s truly to throw some light into the issues concerning the IAF’s desired TMD force posture, and future prospects for inducting into service an IAF-specific version of the LCA (Navy) Mk1 MRCA, along with the Rafale M-MRCA. But first, a few words about how the IAF failed on October 8 to undertake a successful perception management exercise. While the IAF has rightly touted its Su-30MKI heavy-MRCAs as being air-dominance platforms, this fact-of-life was totally missing in the IAF’s giant billboard that was displayed on the parade ground at Hindon on October 8. What was shown through an illustration was a Su-30MKI armed only with R-27R and R-77 BVRAAMs—no R-73Es, no Litening-2 LDP, and no PGMs.
This is inexplicable, given the fact that in successive Aero India and DEFEXPO expos since the previous decade, both HAL and BrahMos Aerospace have repeatedly displayed scale-models of the Su-30MKI armed with both AAMs and PGMs! So what prevents the IAF from showcasing similar exhibits? Your guess is as good as mine.

TMD Developments
Though the IAF had decided to acquire TMD assets way back in 1996, it was the MoD-owned DRDO that first got into the act of proposing a homegrown solution, for which it initiated the development of the PAD/PDV family of exo-atmospheric interceptor missiles and AAD family of endo-atmospheric interceptor missiles. For target acquisition-cum-engagement, two EL/M-2080 ‘Green Pine’ active phased-array L-band long-range tracking radars (LRTR) were ordered in late 1998 from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), along with two THALES-built Master-A MFCRs, and a TMD simulation testbed from Israel’s Tadiran Electronic Systems.
The primary threats—both then and now—stemmed from the Pakistan Army’s 80 solid-fuelled single-stage M-11 (Hatf-3/Ghaznavi/CSS-7 Mod 1/DF-11) 280km-range TBMs that were inducted into service on February 22, 2004, and 60 liquid-fuelled single-stage Hatf-5/Ghauri-1/Nodong-1 IRBMs of North Korean origin, was inducted into service on January 8, 2003 under the 47 Missile Group of the Pakistan Army’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC). Presently, the Pakistan Army deploys two Missile Groups each of the Ghauri-1 and Ghaznavi (grouped under two separate Artillery Brigades, these being the Hyderabad-based Missile Brigade South comprising Missile Groups 25, 35 and 40; and the Sargodha-based Missile Brigade North comprising the 14, 28 and 47 Missile Groups).
During hostilities with India, all these missiles will be armed with conventional HE or FAE-based warheads. Each such Missile Group comprises 18 Ghaznavi TELs each with one ready-to-fire missile and two reloads, and 18 Ghauri-1 TELs each with two ready-to-fire missiles and two reloads. A Group can also be divided into three Batteries (with six Ghaznavi TELs and six missiles plus two reloads and six Ghauri-1 TELs with 12 missiles and 24 reloads). Presently, Batteries of the Ghauri-1 and Ghaznavi are deployed at Gujranwala, Okara, Mangla Multan, Jhang, Sonmiani, Quetta and Dera Nawab Shah.
Unfortunately, despite 19 years of R & D effort, the DRDO has to date been unable to even offer a fully functional TMD system, leave alone a networked TMD network. The main problem has been the DRDO’s inability to develop hypersonic interceptor missiles and their internally-mounted Ka-band active phased-array radars for terminal guidance. Only homegrown X-band and Ku-band radar seekers have been designed and tested without demonstrable success.  
And that is precisely the reason why, two years ago, when a combined team from IAI and Russia’s JSC Almaz-Antey MSDB made an unsolicited presentation to the IAF on an improved version of the S-400 ‘Triumph’ LR-SAM (a generation ahead of what has been sold to China) that would make use of IAI’s latest EL/M-2090U UHF-band active phased-array LRTR, the IAF began making hectic plans for procuring such a system for TMD within the foreseeable future.  
Presently, the S-400 makes use of four different types of supersonic endo-atmospheric interceptor missiles (top speed of 4.8km/second): the 40N6E, the 9M96E2, the 48N6E3 and the 48N6E2, all of which are armed with HE-fragmentation warheads. What Russia has proposed for the IAF are two HYPERSONIC missiles, the exo-atmospheric 77N6-N and the endo-atmospheric 77N6-NI, having top speeds of 7km/second and also being the first SAMs of Russian origin to possess INERT warheads, i.e. warheads that do not contain any explosives and instead, are ‘hittile’, meaning they will destroy inbound TBMs, IRBMs or MRBMs by sheer force of impact.  
The most revolutionary element of the 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI hypersonic LR-SAMs will be their on-board nose-mounted, Ka-band millimeter-wave active phased-array radar seekers and their real-time discrimination algorithms required for fire-control and guidance of hit-to-kill interceptors. To this end, the radar seekers have been designed with a rigid mount and narrow beam to provide precise angle metric accuracy. The combination of metric accuracy, wide bandwidth, and high Doppler-resolution capabilities makes them excellent sensors for real-time discrimination, for they can provide extremely accurate identification-processing estimates of motion differences caused by mass imbalances on real and threat-like targets.
The 300-tonne EL/M-2090U ULTRA C-22 LRTR features an array of 22 UHF-band transmit-receive modules (TRM) in a single clustered unit that has been designed so that modules can be easily swapped. Using UHF, rather than the higher frequency bands, has particular application at long ranges since it suffers from less signal loss in the atmosphere. A discriminating innovation of the ELM-2090U is the digitisation of the signals at the TRM-level, which allows more flexibility in beam-forming and shaping. For TMD along a sectoral footprint, IAI has developed the EL/M-2090U’s ULTRA C-6 version, which has six TRM clusters. Each cluster can electronically steer its beam through +/-60 degrees in azimuth and across a 40-degree sector in elevation. In all cases, the array can be mechanically tilted through 30 degrees in elevation to provide a total elevation coverage of 70 degrees. The larger C-22 version comes mounted on a rail assembly that can be mechanically slewed through +/100 degrees to give 320-degree coverage.
As per the IAF’s projections, there exists a requirement for 12 Batteries of the S-400 (each Battery using four TELs each housing four cannister-encased LR-SAMs), plus 12 C-6 LRTRs and two C-22 LRTRs. In other words, as per the IAF’s appreciation, a total of 11 strategic sectors are required to be protected against inbound TBMs, IRBMs and MRBMs.
But does this all mean that the procurement of S-400 LR-SAMs is a foregone conclusion? Absolutely not. Significant questions still remain over the yet-to-be-demonstrated effectiveness of the hypersonic 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI missiles. In addition, a lot will depend on Russia’s ability/inability to ramp up series-production of such missiles over the next five years. Also, exercising the Russian option means that India will have to invest cost-prohibitive financial resources on deploying a network of space-based early-warning satellites, since Russia has diminished capacities in this arena. But most importantly, the US is not sitting by and let Russia and Israel have the cake and eat it as well. Since 2012, the US has been taking keen interest in India’s plans for acquiring exo-atmospheric/endo-atmospheric interceptor missiles, especially after the latter officially decided not to field a new generation of solid-fuelled tactical ballistic missiles—be they conventionally armed or nuclear-capable—for replacing the liquid-fuelled Prithvi-1 NLOS-BSMs of 1990s vintage. What this essentially meant, was that unlike Pakistan, India will not use ballistic missiles of any type that are conventionally armed, since such weapons have zero counter-force/counter-strike value. Pakistan, on the other hand, views conventionally armed ballistic missiles as weapons that can be employed as ‘terror weapons’ against civilian targets like large Indian cities as part of an effort to demoralise the civilian population residing in cities that are either India’s financial hubs, or technological hubs.     
Therefore, if Pakistan wants to secure the deterrent value of its strategic WMD arsenals against an Indian TMD shield, it can only do so if it formally adopts a ‘no first-use’ doctrine with universal applicability, at least for its strategic WMD inventory, if not for the short-range TNWs that are presently intended for use only in battlefields within Pakistan. Whether Pakistan will be willing to, or forced into adopting such a posture following the forthcoming meeting between US President Barack Obama and Pakistani Prime Minister Mian Mohd Nawaz Sharif (slated for October 22), remains to be seen. Prior to this meeting, however, there will be a series of meetings held in Washington DC between the Pakistan Army’s COAS, Gen Raheel Sharif and his SPD Director-General on one hand, and their counterparts from the Pentagon.
If Pakistan decides against adopting the a ‘no first-use’ doctrine, then the US will have two policy options to act upon: firstly, degrade and diminish the credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear WMD assets by offering to supply India with the hypersonic (Mach 8.2) Theater High-Altitude Air-Defence (THAAD) TMD system that has been jointly developed by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon; and secondly, initiate contingency planning along with India, the UK, Afghanistan and possibly Iran, for physically confiscating or destroying Pakistan’s entire arsenal of nuclear WMDs.   
It is in this light that one ought to view the symbolism of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with the Chairperson of Lockheed Martin, Ms Marillyn Hewson, in New York on September 24, 2015. That India’s national security decision-makers will favour the THAAD over the S-400 is hardly in doubt, since they are already convinced about the superior performance parameters of the US-origin TMD solution. At the military-industrial level too, both Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have already established their reputations in India as worthy industrial offsets partners and leading network-centric solutions providers. For instance, the systems integration software for the Indian Navy’s Gurgaon-based, Rs.452 crore state-of-the-art Information Management and Analysis Centre (IMAC), which was commissioned on November 23, was provided entirely by Raytheon, with the computing servers coming from CISCO. In future, the IMAC will morphe into the ‘nodal fusion centre’ of the Navy’s Rs.1,003 crore National Command Control Communications and Intelligence Network (NC3I).
For the IAF’s countrywide, quick-reaction TMD network too would such a ‘nodal fusion centre’ be required, along with the requirement for networking with the vast array of space-based early warning satellites that the US presently deploys. Therefore, if the IAF opts for the optimum TMD solution that makes use of THAAD, then India for sure will be required to ink the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation (BECA), which is the key to securing access to ballistic missile early warning alerts from the US Air Force Space Command’s satellite networks.
Next Thread: How & Why The IAF’s Force Structure Planning Process Went Awry 30 Years Ago


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Magicbullet said...

That's only grouse is that we couldn't develop it in-house. while puny Israel punches so much above it's weight.

birbal said...

Morning Prasun da,

AS usual, you are just SU...PERBB,
with real in-depth analysis of the topics that are beyond the grasp of layman like us who are taken for a ride by other reports...DON'T want to say about them.

Your report is worth the wait. To be honest, NO OTHER BLOG offers such in-depth analysis, which most of your followers will agree. If it won'thave been your eport we all might have thinking that the IAF will have gone for the normal S-400 missile system, Not the NEWER ONES(Missiles specially) with it's counterpart Russian LRTRs, Not the IAI ones.

It Presents a HUGE market for Both the Russian missile industry And the IAI which is Firming it's Base in the Indian Defence Industry, specially Airborne Warning Radars and Anti-missile systems.

What about the Make-in-India component??? Any real gain for the Indigenous Defence Industry throgh Offsets!!! It's a real SLAP on the DRDO's face, Enough is Enough, NO more waiting for your Incumbent products.

What about the Exo-atmospheric component of the BMD system? Will the IAF go for the IAIs Arrow-3 Exo-atmospheric BMD missile system Or else...??
What will happen to the PDVs, the AD-1 & AD-2 system?? The Chinese threat always lurks..

I am curious WHY the IAF didn't go for the Raytheon's THAAD Was it Not on offer?


With regard,


DAshu said...

citizen-journalism is way better than main stream journalism here :-).
Thank you for a nice in-depth analysis as always .

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BIRBAL/PALLAB &DASHU: Will upload later tonight the IAF's force-structure planning methodology since the 1960s in chronological & how matters have evolved over the years, & how the figure of 189 Rafales was derived & why the Rafale cannot be substituted by any other platform, be it the Tejas Mk2 or even the LCA (Navy) Mk1. That will be followed by the detailed dissection of the CAG report on the Tejas LCA project.

sweet said...

Just saw the video of C-22 LRTR on IAI website. Although the exact range of radar is classified,the video showed that the C-22 LRTR was capable of tracking satellites in space. You can now guess the range of the radar. I wonder whether we will use these radars for the anti-satellite missiles development the DRDO keeps talking about.

The two c-22 LRTR radars can have a clean sweep over entire Pakistani airspace from one boundary to another boundary while capable enough to even detect a bird flying in their airspace.

Guess this will cause lot of heartburn within Pakistani army when we deploy such a system....hahahaha.

dailyindiadefence said...

Thanks Prasun,

That was a revolutionary report if the Hypersonic Anti Ballistic Missile comes of age
and I guess IAF wants it for the China front which is being beefed up but can any BMD
work on the close distance a missile has to traverse from PAKISTAN is a moot question.

Look to the details of the LCA mK 1 which will be a hybrid derivative of LCA (navy) and upgrade of LCA mk 1 ?

Anonymous said...

Unknown said...

Hi prasun sir m new to your blog sir what will be the range of 77N6N missile

Jon said...

Good news:

Unknown said...

What will be the total cost of acquisition of these systems?
By when will we see it operational in India?
This looks like a game changer, How will Pakistan react to this?
Is Modi signing this deal on his Russia and Israel trip in the coming months?

HOODS said...


which version of R-77 in in service in IAF- the RVV-AE? or is the RVV-SD also present?

whenever IAF exercises with western air forces they insist not including BVR combat.why is that when it has BVR missiles in its arsenal and so does the PAF.


Prasun Da,

Great explanation as always, can't thank you enough. Just had 3 questions:

(1) You wrote : What Russia has proposed for the IAF are two HYPERSONIC endo-atmospheric missiles, the 77N6-N and the 77N6-NI

Does this mean that there will be no exo atmospheric missile in the S 400 meant for the IAF?

(2) Will it make sense for the Indian Navy to go for the naval version of the S 400?

(3) Why can't the IAF go directly for the S 500 instead of the S 400?



Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

awaiting ur posts Prasun Da, Very informative ... thanks again
happy Navratri Days to u !! :-)

Unknown said...

awesome post sir...

Raman said...


Excellent and informative. looking forward to the follow-on post.

Unknown said...

Great post, prasun dada ! Make the followon post as soon as possible! Few questions,
1. What happens to AAD and PAD now ? much time before deployment of s400 in india ?

Anup said...


IAF,IN,NCC importing Virus SW 80 microlights aircraft.We import even microlites! What a shame.

It's not possible to built microlight aircrafts in India? We are developing Satellites , Tejas etc.

Unknown said...

western line for helicopters ?
which helicopter is he talking about?

& you also said something about russia's involvement in syria. that it has something to do with arms market ! is russia targetting america's petrodollar hegemony ?

plz explain

thank you

sbm said...

Prasun, All great stuff as usual and thanks. One huge question - will GOI sign any contract for this or will it just be dreams ?


Dear Prasun,

Is it true that Tejas Mk II has been scrapped??? Or is it another instance of yellow journalism. Plz. try to explain what the SOUBHAGYA and DURBHAGYA of Tejas is.

Anonymous said...

Excellent article again Prasun Da.
More than enough detail to nourish the nubile mind.

How will PDV benefit from this purchase?
And any update on Arjun Mk2?

THINK TANK said...

Dear prasun da,
Saint Antony was an absolute nightmare but manohar prahar kar doesn't seem to be any better....
The only thing the present RM is good at is confusing the hell out of an already confused bunch of retarded desi journalists who only vomit out whatever is force fed to them.
Nothing seems to happen on time in the MOD and DAC
Why do we keep floating tenders if we don't have the finances or we can't make up our minds or both?
The armed forces are equally if not more retarded than the Babus and ministers .
Indian armed forces formulate the most insane,stupid and nonsensical Gsqr on the face of earth.
It is mind boggling how anything at all gets procured after so much idiocy at all levels in the armed forces and the government.
I feel like the s400 wont be ordered in this decade .It will become obsolete by the time we order it,
Some of the big contacts which should have been signed by now but are still pending include,

36 Rafale
Super sukhoi upgrade
2 A50 phalcon aew&cs
6 A330 mrtt
3 c17 follow on order
4 follow on p8 Neptune
6 follow on talwar class frigates
5 fleet support ships
3 or 4 ssk follow on order
16 s70 b
100 to 120 as565 panther helicopters
145 m777 howtzers

Is there any hope of these being signed any time soon?
Which of these do you see as being signed in FY 15-16?
Vmt in advance

Arpit Kanodia said...


How you see this development? Ahmad Mukhtar who was Ex Defence Minister when OBL incident happened, accepted that top circles of Pakistan Army, ISI and Civilian Govt. knew about the OBL living in Abbottabad.



China operationalised today the dam they built over the Brahmaputra.

GOI fear that China will start diverting water.

Do you think that this issue of water diversion may lead to a conflict between India & China in the near future?

Thank you.

Mayur M Manapure said...

WHAT'S new in that..Whole world knows...But not a single Pakistan Daily or most frequented news sites will host this news or interview....

Dhruv said...

Is it possible to modify the design of the iac-1 to build the 4 helicopter carriers the navy wants. Why buy a foreign design if we have the capacity to develop our own? We wont have to start from scratch because we have the design blueprint for the iac-1. And i feel there is no real urgency to have these amphibian ships and a 3-5 year delay won't have a big impact on the navy's modernization plans. Design can be frozen within 5 years and we can start construction thereafter.

Also, what is the status of the marine kaveri gas turbine? Is the design scalable? Can we have an lm2500 alternative in the coming decade?

Dushyant hardaha said...

why drdo is making hectic effort in developing pin to aircraft?

why mod is so uncomfortable with pvt industries
drdo should focus such projects which pvt industry can't develop

Rituraj said...


There are many defense magazines printed from India. Geopolitics, Force, Airpower, SPS Publications and many others are there. Most of them require paid memberships.

Could you please suggest some good ones which are relatively reliable and objective which I can recommend my library to subscribe? Please name a few.


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PALLAB/BIRBAL & JAY BHANUSHALI: Have added more narrative above that will enable all to understand India’s strategm at play.

To DAILYINDIADEFENCE: For a quick-reaction TMD network to be effective, there’s no alternative to the US-owned network of early warning satellites. If India wants to get early-warning ques from it, then she will have to sign the BECA.



To VIKRAM GUHA: VMT. 1) Have corrected & added to the narrative above, which will put matters into perspective. 2) Nope. TMD is reqd for India’s immediate periphery & therefore the network will have to be land-based, not shipborne. 3) S-500’s R & D efforts are still works-in-progress’.


To SIDDHARTH DHAPOLA: VMT. Further R & D efforts into the PDV will continue, but the AAD project will have to be foreclosed.

To ANUP: Why are you so surprised? How many flying clubs in India are having microlight inventories? A look at the numbers will tell you why no one bothers to develop them in-country.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIYUSH DAS: That report is total hogwash. And see how the Russian Mi-24s are flying over Syria:

And Iraqi Army Aviation has just acquired a squadron of CH-4A armjed UAVs from China’s CATIC.

To SBM: A sale-and-purchase agreement is still some distance away, since a winner has not yet been declared.

To SOUBHAGYA: How can it be scrapped when deliveries of the 99 F414-IN96 turbofans already commenced last June?

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Relax, for nothing like that will ever happen. Why should China deny Bangladesh the waters of the Brahmaputra by reducing the water-flow for India? It doesn’t make any sense.

To DHRUV: Yes, it is possible to derive a LPH design from IAC-1.

To RITURAJ: Most of them contain nuggets of useful information, like interviews with MoD and military officials. Therefore, it is difficult to prefer one over the other.

birbal said...

HATS-OFF Prasun da.

Now we fully understood the real understanding of the symbolism of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with the Chairperson of Lockheed Martin, Ms Marillyn Hewson, in New York on September 24, 2015.

We were all believing that the meeting of PM Narendra Modi with the Chairperson of Lockheed Martin, Ms Marillyn Hewson, in New York on September 24, 2015 was something to do with the F-16s in India when we all know that it has been already knocked out of the MMRCA competition in 2012 only and that PM Modi has agreed to buy the Rafles on his visit to France. So, why would the F-16s be build in India?
Actually we all taken taken FOR-A-RIDE guys by some piece of YELLOW journalism...If Prasunda hadn't elaborated the real purpose of the interaction between PM Modi with the Chairperson of Lockheed Martin, Ms Marillyn Hewson, in New York on September 24, 2015 we would have never known the TRUTH. What do you say Readers??


With regards,


Unknown said...

absolutely true !
sometime i wonder that yellow journalism is not prevalent only in india, but also in abroad. otherwise atleast our journalists would have been able to copy those articles.


Prasun Da,

NASA is making its patented technologies available to start ups free of cost



Unknown said...

"the latter officially decided not to field a new generation of solid-fuelled tactical ballistic missiles—be they conventionally armed or nuclear-capable—for replacing the liquid-fuelled Prithvi-1 NLOS-BSMs of 1990s vintage."

but you've said that indian army will be feilding prithvi 3 missiles, to replace these liquid fueled missiles


Sir does this news:

Augsta Westland join hands with TATA to Manufacture AW 119 in India

Not confirmed what you have been saying all along in this entire sordid affair involving AW?

Does this pave the way for operationalising those 3 AW-101s delivered (and currently mothballed) to India and getting the outstanding 9 from the UK?

sbm said...

Thanks for this excellent article Prasun.

Question though: will a decision on a TMD system be taken ? Or will it just waffle around for a while ? Modi seems to be trying but...

Arpit Kanodia said...


Isnt India going to deploy Shaurya armed with conventional warheads, once all the tunnel work in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh completed?

buddha said...
plz give us more information regarding ...sir

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said... nice link for sub seas warfare

Unknown said...

Prasun sir thanks for your reply sir the Russian s500 is a upgraded s400 or a clean sheet design new weapon?
thanks in advance

Ved said...

Prasun how will the shortcoming in combat radius of Tejas be overcome. Will aerial refuelling be effective answer in both western and northern theatres for Tejas.

What according to you should be the optimum number of Tejas in IAF?

shah said...

you were right in your earlier post.your prediction was right Iran has sent it's troops to syria using russia's


shah said...

as we all know tejas mk 2 is happening but here

IAF is buying 120 tejas Mk1/Mk1a or what ever and IAF's Mk2 is bieng scrapped.
GE f414 ins6's are for naval tejas.
Please shed some light on it as its getting very messy what's going to happen.


Deepak said...

Prasun da, can RBU-6000 stop incoming torpedos if other counter measure fails to stop them?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SHAH: VMT. But Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel have been fighting alongside the Syrian Army since 2012. This is nothing new. The BBC's Persian TV channel had even aired a documentary filmed inside Syria on this issue at that time.

To VED: It can be overcome through the usage of lightweight, small-diameter PGMs, & development of a centreline fuel-tank on the aircraft's belly that is optimised for supersonic flight. As for numbers, wait for my new narrative that will be uploaded above later tonight.

To DIPAN CHAKRABORTY: S-500 Prometheus will replace the S-300V & V-2500 systems. It therefore will be totallky different from the S-400. Asn for Aksai Chin, the answer is NO.

To BUDDHA: For most foreign vendors, 'Make in India' today means only licenced in-country assembly, this being the case due to years of perpetuation of a policy by the previous govts which advocated licenced-assembly but sold all of this to the Indian public as being 'Made in India'.

To PIYUSH DAS & ARPIT KANODIA: All those plans for Prithvi-3 & Prahaar have been shelved. Instead, priority is being accorded to the development of the 60km-range Pinaka-2 & 120km-range Pinaka-3 MBRLs.

To THE UNBELEIVER: That news pertains to only the civilian version of the AW-119. TATA had published a press-release to this effect way back in 2011.

To SBM: VMT. Decision has already been taken to acquire imported TMD systems & the rqd quantum is also finalised, as I've narrated above. As for when will the orders be placed, it all depends on how the international political stratagens play out by early next year.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DEEPAK: Only if the inbound torpedoes are of the wire-guided type. If not, then torpedo decoys like Maareech will be used again st homing torpedoes.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

Please increase the frequency of the post the last post was on for over 1 month. Also please update the reason for Rafael being selected for MMRCA. Thanks in advance

Jay said...

You have mentioned that 150km Prahaar/Pragati is going to be shelved.
So what is difference between a 120km-range Pinaka-3 MBRL and Prahaar?
Why reinvent the wheel?
Prahaar with 6 missile slots seems like HIMARs type MBRL?

Unknown said...

an article filled with adrenaline

"Then tell your dictator president he can go to hell along with his ISIS terrorist and I shall make Syria to nothing but a Big Stalingrad, for Erdoğan and his Saudi allies are no vicious than Adolf Hitler,"___PUTIN

SLAV troll said...

Putin just doesn't give a fuck!!!!
There's a reason he has been declared the most powerful man on earth by Times magazine

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@8.17PM: LoLz! RAFAEL was never selected...what was selected was the RAFALE. Reasons stay the same as those I had stated several times before, but more insight will be provided later tonight in the upcoming narrative-update.

To SHAH: Wait for the narrative updates, where everything will become crystal-clear. IAF will buy only an additional 86 LCAs, these being the IAF-customised version of LCA (Navy) Mk.1. This is in addition to the 40 Tejas Mk.1s already on order. The Tejas Mk.2 is still in the initial stages of design & the first prototype won't surface till late 2018 or first quarter of 2019. If the Tejas Mk.2 successfully completes its flight certification tests, then up to 120 of them will be ordered.

Then there exists the reqmt for up to 80 Tejas Mk.1 tandem-seaters that are to be used as supersonic LIFTs for lead-in fighter training. That's what the 3-stage flying training curriculum of the IAF is all about: Stage 1 with PC-7 Mk2 BTTs, Stage-2 with Hawk Mk.132 AJTs & Stage-3 with supersonic LIFTs. As to why the IAF is refraining from ordering LIFTs is beyond my comprehension & absolutely baffling. For, without supersonic LIFTs, pilots will find it extremely challenging to transition from the subsonic Hawk Mk.132 to frontline MRCAs like the Su-30MKI or Rafale or Jaguar IS or even the Tejas Mk.1/Mk.2. Consequently, expect a few more avoidable crashes of the Su-30MKI & of the Rafale as well in future--this being my appreciation/prediction based on logical reasoning.

To JAY: Pinaka-3 is MBRL, Prahaar is NLOS-BSM. If an air force has sufficient number of fourth-generation MRCAs serving as tactical interdictors & armed with standoff PGMs & air-launched cruise missiles, this then makes the NLOS-BSM an expensive weapon & therefore an avoidable option. MBRLs like Pinaka-3 will have SADARM sub-munitions & therefore the total deliverable mass of 'smart' ordnance over an extended target footprint will be much greater than that of Prahaar. A simple matter of economies of scale.

To PIYUSH DAS & SLAV: Nothing extraordrinary about it at all. Putin only said what reflected Russia's supreme enlightened national interests, while Erdogan had it coming a long time ago & fully deserves such rebukes.

Arpit Kanodia said...


So, this means Shaurya and Prahaar remain as TD, while Agni 4 replace the Agni 1 and 2?

And Indian Army only use the BrahMos Block-3 as NLOS-BSM assault?

Am I right is this?

Unknown said...

My first question for you,was the THAAD ever offered to India by the U.S.A. and if it was being offered then what would have been the possible reason for the MoD to reject it outright without even thinking twice when a few years back we desperately wanted to buy the Arrow system from Israel??
My second question,when the Indo-Israeli team has been successful to increase the range of the original Barak-8 missile by around 20 kms and with the Barak-8 ER around the corner,was there really any reason to opt for the S-400 Triumf apart from the TMD when the reality is that we could have simply bought the EL/M-2090U UHF-band active phased-array LRTR directly from Israel and could have used the Barak-8 ER version which has been specifically designed to counter super sonic cruise/quasi-ballastic type incoming missiles??
My third question for you,is there really a need for the FICV considering the fact that we can easily opt for either Namer or T-15 IFVs since both of which are probably the best at this moment along with full ToT which i am quite sure that the Israelis will at least provide us(no so sure about the Russkies specially after the T-90S debacle)and thus save both the time and money of the MoD which can then be effectively used to upgrade the equipment of our Infantry Corp or for that matter the Artillery Corp??

Kunal Jadhav said...

Why is government buying micro light aircraft from "Pipstrel" when it have already purchased Pilatus.


Ah I see, so this has no bearing on the current defence dealings with AW? So what EXACTLY is to happen in regards to those 3 AW101s we have mothballed in Delhi? Are they set to never fly then? Are we going to go for a FMS deal for the S-92 (given it was the only other helicopter found eligible by the IAF)? Our leaders need SOMETHING. I saw Modi being flown in a Mi8 (not even a V5) to a rally in Bihar 2 days ago- A THIRTY PLUS YEAR OLD RELIC that was unsafe BRAND NEW is being used to fly OUR PRIME MINISTER??

This is totally unacceptable and totally reckless on the IAF's part, exactly why is no one dealing with this issue head on?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: Yes, they will remain TDs. Army has both BrahMos-1 Block-2 & BrahMos-1 Block-3.

To SUMAN BANERJEE: THAAD was offered to India way back in the early part of this decade. No one from India rejected it. Neither Barak-2 nor Barak-8 are meant to intercept inbound IRBMs or MRBMs or even TBMs. Performance parameters of Barak-2/Barak-8 & S-400/THAAD are poles apart. Any LRTR can’t initiate accurate target tracking without precise early-warning inputs from space-based satellites equipped with IIR sensors. Especially in the Indian context, only maximum 5 minutes & minimum of 2 minutes warning time will be available even with the use of space-based satellites. Without such early-warning, any LRTR from anywhere will be totally useless. If the Namer can be derived from the Merkava, then why can’t a homegrown FICV be derived from the Arjun Mk.1? Why can’t existing T-72M1 tanks be modified to serve as infantry support vehicles just like the BMP-T?

To KUNAL JADHAV: From Pilatus comes the PC-7 Mk.2 basic turboprop trainer, which isn’t a microlight by any stretch of imagination. Nor will anyone buy a PC-7 Mk.2 for recreational flying. Microlights are powered by piston engines.

To THE UNBELIEVER: Those AW-101s will definitely have to fly again, that’s a given. The S-92 deal will never materialise because, since it is the only other VVIP helicopter option available, it will have to become a sole-source procurement, which is forbidden under the DPP guidelines. NaMo is using both Mi-17V-5 & the Mi-171s that were procured 15 years ago. Why isn’t anyone dealing with this issue head-on? Simply because unless the closure reports on investigations are filed by either the Enforcement Directorate or the CBI or the Central Vigilance Commission, the Govt of India can’t do anything. One has to follow ‘due process’ as mandated by the ‘Rules of Business’ book of the Govt of India.

All this would never have happened had AKA not taken the panicky & alarmist decision to arbitrarily cancel the AW-101 procurement contract. So now, AKA owes every Indian taxpayer an explanation about why he terminated an ongoing contract in the absence of any verifiable evidence of any kind of wrongdoing. Why did he make the MoD function on the basis of mere allegations, suppositions & assumptions? And consequently, why did he jeapordise the safety of India’s National Nuclear Command Authority? Unfortunately, no one except me is asking these questions while AKA blissfully carries on with his life as if he couldn’t be bothered about all this, despite overwhelming evidence about his criminal negligence & sinful conduct when performing his functions as the RM, i.e. he & his political masters are firm adherents of the ‘chalta hai’ attitude under which let the whole country be damned for as long as no shit stains them personally! In any other self-respecting country, politicians like him would have had to face the full brunt of the law on charges of jeapordising national security. But not in India.

Anonymous said...


1) Wo'nt going too close to the U.S mean GoI will shelve plans for MIRVed ICBMs and SLBMs.? This will ensure that we never get a credible deterrent vis a vis PRC.

2) Some indications of unnecessary strategic restraint are there, with GoI postponing an Agni 4 trial because of the P.M's visit to the U.S.

Sakshi said...

great effort from the son of the soil.

Gopu said...

1) Is the AN/TPY-2 part of the Indian THAAD offer? If not, will Israeli LRTRs fill the gap.

2) Why is a global satellite network required when our TMD defenses are aimed at one specific country? Shouldn't a regional infrared satellite suffice?

3) How does the SPYDER system compare with Iron Dome and Barak 8 ER ground-based LR-SAM compare with David's Sling Stunner? Both categories have similar ranges and radar, but Israel has inducted the latter option over the former for both categories.

4)Theoretically, isn't the Super Hornet a worthy (and cheaper) alternative to the Rafale planes, assuming local rotables manufacturing and MRO overhaul is allowed (along with the other benefits offered during the MMRCA competition). I fail to see the logic behind the rafale purchase and French help with nuclear submarines (which could be pursued regardless of the rafale deal). Anyways, the current offset proposal with business jets seems somewhat unappetizing.


Sir I couldn't agree more with you on the role that scumbag (AK Antony) has played in undermining our interests and the absurd actions he took based purely on MEDIA PRESSURE alone in respect to cancelling the AW101 deal and cashing the securities AW had put in place.

No doubt he should be made to pay for his actions and why the current GoI is not doing so is entirely perplexing to me but then this GoI has been a disappointment on that front. They are still to even get started on the 1984 riot prosecutions.

Anyway sir, what happens now? How long do we have to wait for the AW-101s to become operationalised? When will our PM be secure when he flies by helicopter? Every time he steps on those totally inadequate Mi-17s he is putting his life at risk. Why exactly is the SPG allowing this situation? When does this saga end?

We are a nation of clowns to allow our Nuclear Command Authority no less to be put at this risk, we deserve all the pain that goes along with this should the worst happen.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@2.25AM: 1) Why should that happen? Has anyone from the US demanded this from India? 2) India is already exercising strategic restraint by having an arsenal of nuclear WMDs that are in a semi-recessed state, i.e. unlike their US, UK, French or Russian or Chinese counterparts, India’s nuclearWMDs are NEVER kept in ready-to-launch mode 24/7/365.

To GOPU: 1) Of course. Israeli LRTR is being offered with the S-400, as I have stated above in the narrative. 2) For triangulation purposes in order to get accurate track-vectors, at least 3 satellites are reqd, plus a standby satellite. 3) Iron Dome is an anti-MBRL system, while SpyDer is an anti-aircraft/anti-cruise missile system. David’s Sling/Stunner is optimized for use against SRBMs of the type supplied by Iran to Hezbollah. Barak-2 at the moment is an anti-aircraft/anti-ASCM system while the Barak-8 will be an anti-aircraft system. 4) Of course the Super Hornet is the cheapest offer on the table. But such a purchase cannot be leveraged for other critical purchases, like SSNs & their PWRs, due to restrictions posed NOT by The White House, but by US Congressional legislation.

To THE UNBELEIVER: What happens now? Nothing, except for bidding one’s time. One cannot violate existing rules & regulations. Matters will move ahead only AFTER the ED, CBI & CVC file their respective closure reports, citing the lack of conclusive evidence of wrongdoing. And on top of all this, there’s an acute lack of common-sense prevailing within India, especially among most of the civilian decision-makers. This situation needs a reversal. But how and when? Only the Gods of Yore possess the answers.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: More bandaalbaazi from the ace bandaalbaaz:

A sceptical HAL unsurprisingly scoffs at the notion of a rival private sector assembly line. Senior executives point to what happened three months ago when HAL, already preoccupied with three simultaneous helicopter programmes (the light combat helicopter, light utility helicopter and weaponised Dhruv), issued a proposal offering the private sector full technology transfer to build the Dhruv advanced light helicopter in India. HAL officials say not a single private vendor accepted the challenge.


What the bandaalbaaz fails to realise (& therefore fails to ask HAL for convincing explanations) is that in case of helicopters carrying personnel other than the pilot & co-pilot, the baseline helicopter design always requires a certification of airworthiness from either the EASA or the FAA. Without this, no insurance company in the world will provide hull insurance for such uncertified helicopters. So why should any private-sector company stick its neck out & produce such uncertified helicopters & consequently expose itself to enormous insurance claims/financial damages in case of a fatal crash involving one of the helicopters built by it? Even LIC has refused to provide insurance coverage for the Dhruv ALH (because no one in the world recognises DGCA's certification because DGCA by its charter & mandate is only an endorsing authority, & not a certifying authority) and consequently ONGC & Pawan Hans have had no choice but to go for leased Dauphins & AW-139s! If such a state of affairs is not reflective of an acute lack of common-sense on HAL's part, then what does?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Congratulations to all those believing/assuming themselves to be 'Hindus'. For they are no longer 'Hindus', as per the Govt of India's own admission:

Consequently, there never was a Hindustan, nor is there anything known as Hinduism or Hindutva. These were all constructs of the colonial Anglo-Saxon Caucasians to tie the natives of the subcontinent up in knots.

So now, by all means the Govt of India ought to take this matter up with Her Majesty's Govt & the Royal Asiatic Society, sue them for liquidated damages for hoodwinking the natives of the Indian subcontinent, & arrive at an out-of-court settlement under which the UK will foot the bill for the IAF's procurement of 189 Rafale M-MRCAs!.

There you go UNBELIEVER. Your problem has been solved for good & finally--hopefully--you will stop cursing yourself & your fellow Indian brethren for thre sins of the past!!!

Unknown said...

Thanks for answering sir sir I read somewhere in Internet that a western analyst said that PLA is not a nationalistic army build to protect its motherland but a political force in the hand of Chinese communist party to secure there goal of regional and global hegemony your comments plz

3rd ~ EyE said...

Sir , Why does the Tejas have almost unacceptable combat range of 300Kms . What went wrong in our design ? HAL solution to have a refueling probe doesn't seem to be a viable fix when such a fighter has to perform in a full on battle even if it is for a point defense role !

Anonymous said...

@dipan chakraborty

That is true, PLA's primary responsibility is to server and protect the CCP. The average Chinese is very much aware of this fact.

Best Regards

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

i m bit surprised you havent answered the list of questions i asked in previous thread

1. you have said US will tacitly approve Russia annexation of Crimea, but doesnt that also literally means breakaway of pro Russia eastern Ukraine

2. you also said 'Further R & D efforts into the PDV will continue, but the AAD project will have to be foreclosed.' why

3. You say India wont get Aksai Chin back, but if CPEC is non starter and if & when PoK/GB merge back with India; all the efforts of China to hold on to Aksai Chin as help to access the Arabian Sea will come to zero. Also if we see Aksai Chin as Chinas access to Xinjiang lets us not forget that like Pak occupied Baluchistan in 1948 after 8 month freedom China also occupied Xinjiang in 1947 after 2 year freedom, which is why Uighurs are fighting
a freedom struggle, and in all probability the next flashpoint after Pak tribal area will be Xinjiang and world powers have best chance to cut china to size by rooting for Xinjiang freedom, unless they turn blind eye lie China occupying Tibet or Israel occupying Palestine areas for the sake of dollars. If they do Xinjiang will get freedom and China will have to give up Aksai Chin, Tibet. till that time India has to bid time

hope to get answers


Joydeep Ghosh

Unknown said...

Thanks Raj ,Prasun sir if India go for s400 will Russia share the tech of its topaz 2 nuclear reactor so that we can build ocean reconisence and bmew satellite?

Ved said...

Dear Prasun ,

Will IAF have Tejas MK2 with GE414INS6 in its squadron?
By going through earlier posts i understood only IN will indict Tejas MK 2!!!

Gopu said...

VMT for the answers!

However, I would like to respectfully disagree with your conclusion that the Rafale was the only option for MMRCA. How exactly will spending billions of dollars on a platform that the IAF has to buy, irrespectively, be construed in any way as strategic leverage for nuclear submarines (the Rafale contract has no explicit stipulations for such Tot according to publicly available information)? France is in no way obligated to provide India with PWR reactors and submarine designs after the Rafale contract is inked (and even if France does, this will cost additional money on top of MMRCA procurement!).

The MMRCA deal was to fill a vital gap in the IAF, while future nuclear submarine classes will start to join the IN gradually over the next 10-15 years. Therefore, the ideal technology transfer for the MMRCA deal would be in India's aerospace industry, and not naval developments. For example, Boeing's experience in conformal fuel tanks could be directly linked to the Tejas mk2 development or Raytheon's software could be used for aerospace management to build an IAF nodal fusion center as you suggested.

While the Rafale plane is a very powerful MMRCA, the cost of the aircraft is not competitive with either the Russian or American fighter industry. Australia purchased their Super Hornets for about $100 million each, whereas the per-unit cost of Rafales was $290 million for Qatar and $210 million for Egypt. Assuming France sells Rafales to India for a generous price of $200 million per unit, this is a $100 million per unit cost difference! Therefore, a 189 strong Rafale fleet would cost approximately an additional $19 billion compared to a Super Hornet fleet, give or take some.

Gopu said...

At this point, the logical economic question is ~$20+ billion a rational and reasonable cost for some form of intangible French strategic partnership? The Tejas R&D itself is unlikely to hit that number, while the Arihant program has cost $3 billion so far with Russian technology inputs. In India's perspective, are Western design inputs worth this additional sum compared to already available Russian design inputs - especially considering that Chinese submarines are still based on outdated Soviet submarine design philosophy (which begs the question if our non-submarine ASW abilities will eventually be sufficient once they mature to successfully target Chinese submarines)!? Given Russia's financial situation, India should have plenty of leverage to ask for Borei and Yasen class technology inputs. And if the Russians refuse, what will make the French any more likely to share their secrets, given their adamant stance on the Rafale deal?

Why can't the Scorpene follow-on order be the sticking point for French PWR's or SSN designs, like the Brazilians did (minus PWR's)? Why should the IAF's finances be destroyed on a much needed platform to satisfy an emergent technology requirement of the IN? Why does India have to pay exorbitant amounts of money to a time-tested friend for mere bargaining chips? Shouldn't France's strategic relationships be independent of raw material factors (hence the "strategic" nature of a strategic relation)? Isn't this the reasoning behind De Gaulle's concerns with NATO and France's historic skepticism of NATO? And most importantly, is this deal not strategic blackmail inflicted by our own government's political-strategic negligence?

Sorry for the long post, I just couldn't find any comprehensive answer to my question elsewhere.

SATYAM said...

Ok if Bharat Rakshak is to be believed the owner of this blog is a "liar" and "moron" and people like us who visit this blog are "loonies".

Meanwhile liar in chief, Prasoon is as usual lurking on this forum and has sought to combine multiple discussions that we had here, into one post cooking up a story of ELTA UHF radar with S-400s (moron doesn't even understand the raison de etre of S-400 is its mobility and the ELTA UHF is a static huge system), making up some story about DRDO, IAF and everyone to drive his loony fanbase nuts. What a chap, has no sense of shame or sense whatsoever.

Seems some people desperately need forum members.

Unknown said...

I don't know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody.

rad said...

hi Prasun
How is arihant going to fire the nirbhay missile when it has just conducted 2 to 3 tests.Firing a missile from a torpedo tube is a complex affair with the missile being enclosed in a capsule and jettisoned after it breaks the surface. It makes no sens firing from a vertical launcher as nobody does that.Even then it has to have a capsule to protect it as it crosses the sea to air barrier. How is it possible.


What? We are "loonies"? But then what is India without name calling.

Anyways PrasunDa, it is not just these media Bandalbaaz, do read this article. This is serious.

Middlemen are swinging defense contracts in India and these include former military officers as well. Deba R Mohanty says:

"Ever since the military industry started booming a few years ago, there has been a trend of using retired military officers to push deals for Indian as well as foreign firms. Deals are being influenced even at the basic level"

Unknown said...


"Nixon: I don’t want the Indians to be happy. I want the Indians—I want also, put this down, and get Scali in. Use him more. I want a public relations program developed to piss on the Indians. I mean, that atrocity of the [unclear], for example.

Kissinger: Yeah.

Nixon: I want to piss on them for their responsibility. Get a white paper out. Put down, White paper. White paper. Understand that?

Kissinger: Oh, yeah.

Nixon: I don’t mean for just your reading. But a white paper on this—

Kissinger: No, no. I know.

Nixon: I want the Indians blamed for this, you know what I mean? We can’t let these goddamn, sanctimonious Indians get away with this. They’ve pissed on us on Vietnam for 5 years, Henry."

while answering my queries, plz let sense prevail over emotions...

how do americans view us today ? as a market ? as a counterweight to china ?
& more importantly how do americans view pakistan today ?
if THAT MOMENT eventually arrives & we HAVE TO choose between america & russia what should we do ? & what will we do ?

i am not gaga over russia india friendship, i know that they were following their national interest. all i'm asking is what is our national interest ?

i know that some of you will argue that NIXON was an idiot. but HOW do we know that another idiot won't become american president in future ?

we need indigenous weapons. पराधीन सपनेहुं सुख नाहीं
plz tell me how far is AMCA, KAVERI, AURA, INS VISHAAL, ARJUN

or else world will treat us as cowards

"Nixon: But these Indians are cowards. Right?

Kissinger: Right."

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DIPAN CHAKRABORTY: That’s because while other countries like India have their armed forces & political parties, in China the CPC has a country & the PLA. In other words, as a non-negotiable rule, if there is no CPC (Communist Party of China), then there cannot be China or the PLA. This is taught to every schoolgoing child & is ingrained within every Chinese citizen. This is their mental conditioning on a national scale without exception. In other words, such conditioning never produces proud patriotism, but only zenophobic nationalism of the type witnessed in fascist dictatorships.

No one in the world parts with any technology. They only part with industrial production methodologies. So, without the former, the latter becomes only licenced-production. Between the S-400 & THAAD, the latter has a greater chance of making it to India due to the reasons I’ve outlined above in the narrative. The TMD version of S-400 is still an unproven & un-demonstrated system & no one from Russia can as yet state with certainty when exactly such a system will become available for export.

To 3RD-EYE: 300km is the combat radius. 600km is the range. What went wrong at the design-stage was the faulty design of the wings & the air-intakes. Refuelling probe, won’t be fixed, but will be rectractable. During air combat this probe will be housed safely inside the airframe & will not be protruding outside as is the case with Rafale or Mirage 2000.

To VED: Yes, Tejas Mk.2s of the IAF will have F414s. IN has confirmed only 46 LCA (Navy) Mk2s for procurement. So what will account for the balance of the 99 F414s that are now being delivered?

To SATYAM: LoLzzzz!!! Such assumptions (about India opting solely for the S-400 option) can only be the byproducts of ‘loonies’ who are concurrently day-dreaming & masturbating, i.e. interleaved operations by those afflicted with terminal stupidity.

To RAD: BUT WHAT IF the Nirbhay was a cloned version of the Novator 3M14E Klub LACM, whose actual range is 1,500km (as demonstrated by Russia when it recently fired them off from the Caspian Sea), but whose restricted range is 290km when officially exported to the Indian Navy? Have you factored in that possibility? What is, just like the BrahMos-1 supersonic multi-role cruise missile, Russia parted with the long-range 3M14E’s design data & allowed the DRDO, HAL etc to back-engineer the LACM’s on-board avionics & propulsion systems & label them as ‘indigenous; products? Did you really assume or believe that an R & D lab like the ADE, which took more than a decade to develop a simple reusable target-drone like the Lakshaya, could have developed the Nirbhay LACM between 2007 & 2012?

Meanwhile, word is that the S-2/Arihant will be ‘handed over’ (not commissioned, mind you) to the IN during the International Fleet review off Vizag next February, which will enable this SSBN to acquire the prefix of INS. Actual commissioning is still another 2 years away from becoming reality.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GOPU: No one in the world parts with any technology. They only part with industrial production methodologies & thgis is known as ToT. So, without the former, the latter becomes only licenced-production. Consequently, all this ToT can NEVER be applied for the development or production of any other product. As for how one contract can be leveraged to secure other force-multiplier products/solutions, it all boils down to statecraft & the art of negotiating. The months & years to come will prove how exactly France will be ‘OBLIGED’ to render any technological assistance to India for the SSN programme. The leveraging is thus NOT ABOUT reducing any procurement cost, but instead, it is all about securing certain critical, TANGIBLE operational (not industrial) capabilities. Only the US today can offer something similar to the Rafale, but not the rest of Europe or Russia. But the US cannot offer SSNs to India due to legal restrictions imposed by the US Congress which even the US President cannot overrule. There was ZERO R & D for the S-2/Arihant programme, because all the R & D had already been conducted in Russia & there was not even a nut or bolt required for designing or testing. India only had to incur the production costs, which reach the US$3 billion mark. If R & D costs were to be incurred, the bill would then have ballooned to at least $20 billion.

As for India have to pay exorbitant amounts of money for weapons procurements & the kind ToT that never translates into indigenous product solutions, this has been going on since the 1960s itself with regard to the IAF. Why are you therefore so surprised with the Rafale? If you desire a product that is cheaper to buy then you have to forego this stupid & preposterous option of licenced-production. A Su-30MKI costs only Rs.242 crores if imported from Russia, but costs Rs.358 crores if built in India. Therefore,if you do the math, you will conclude that just for the sake of keeping less than 5,000 workers of HAL engaged in some form of industrial activity, India has had to fork out an extra Rs.35,000+ crores for licence-building 272 Su-30MKIs! What kind of economic/commercial logic is that? And in what way has all this effort helped India with the LCA’s R & D endeavours? You therefore need to rationalize & analyse with a cool head all these inputs, & not blindly believe all the trash & utter baloney that successive Govts of India have force-fed the Indian public about the mythical (not tangible) merits of licenced-production & self-sufficiency in defence production. In other words, a long overdue reality check is direly reqd. Remember, that Rs.35,000 crores could easily have been saved & invested in the Rafale project had the Govt of India decided to import the Su-30MKIs off-the-shelf. One should always get one’s priorities right.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIYUSH DAS: What you also need to factor in is what really happened in 1971 within the White House & the US State Department: everyone, including Henry Kissinger, was opposed to Nixon's line of thought & were silently revolting against him by adopting a go-slow working posture. That was the reason why the US 7th Fleet was never issued any directives (known as Rules of Engagement) when it had entered the Bay of Bengal, meaning even if it was close to as war theatre, this carrier battle group had no instructions to participate in the war in any form, & instead remain just a silent, inert spectator.

As for the Soviets/Ruskies, they warmed up to India & started sending massive supplies of weapons to India only after 1968 & that too after this very same weapons package was FIRST proposed to Pakistan & only after Pakistan rejected this package was it offered to India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIYUSH DAS: India can never have indigenous solutions for major weapons or platforms. Only weapons architectures or their outer bodies can be indigenised. But more than 50% of what's inside will always have to be imported. Why? because India simply does not have the financial might reqd for initiating homegrown R & D efforts of the kind that's now going on within the developed countries, & even in Israel.

Unknown said...

thank you for answers sir,

can you tell me why india is/was never first choice of world powers ?

weapon pakage was offered to pakistan & only after it rejected was given to india

similar is the case with pakfa, russians offered it to chinese first.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIYUSH DAS: What do you mean? If India was not the first choice then why did the US & UK urgently respond to India's pleas for help after 1962? Why did the US allow all the DAE's scientists & engineers to be educated & trained in nuclear physics & nuclear power generation technologies/methods since the 1950s? Why did the US, UK & France not oppose or prevent India's procurement of the 40mW CIRUS PHWR from Canada in the late 1960s? Why did the US decide to teach ADA's rookie solitaire-playing techies both the science & art of developing fly-by-wire flight control systems for the LCA since the late 1980s? Why did it make an official offer to sell the F/A-18A/B Hornet to the Indian Navy way back in 1986? Why did the US allow Indian Navy's techies from WESEE entry into Silicon Valley & learn all about warship-mounted sonars so that they could come back & join the NPOL to develop the APSOH family of sonars? During the entire Cold War era, did even a single techie from either the DRDO or India's armed forces ever secure any kind of entry of this kind into any military R & D establishment of the USSR?

Leave alone the PAK-FA, even the Su-33 & Su-35 were never put on the table by Russia for China, & definitely not after 2005.

Unknown said...

Sir thanks for Answering sir is it true that China is developing supercavitating submarine? And look sir modi planing to declassify secret netaji files look like pandora's box is about to open

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Fruits of India's behind-the-scenes regional diplomacy:

Interesting Op-Eds:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DIPAN CHAKRABORTY: Supercavitating submarine? China specialises only in back-engineering & reverse-engineering. Therefore, if no one else is developing such submarines, then China will not have any frame of reference or benchmarks to develop similar products.

Unknown said...

Sir is India Pakistan nuclear war a real possibility or just a myth like us ussr nuclear war.I personally belief that it will never happen. World knows China want to be superpower like us and for this reason China will never allow a nuclear war raging on its own backyard. Your comments plz

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DIPAN CHAKRABORTY: Who knows? Only time will tell. India is not yet a superpower. She used to be a status-quo balancing power until May 2014, & after that India has become a revisionist 'leading power'.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

As I had explained earlier, the US is only exploring the idea of relaxing certain export-control regulations for Pakistan to buy safety monitoring sensors for its IAEA-safeguarded PWRs of Chinese origin. This has nothing to do with admitting Pakistan into the NSG, as evidenced by this report:

The earlier WASHINGTON POST news-report was therefore highly speculatory & way off the mark.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...


To RAD: These are what genuine, path-breaking technological breakthroughs all about:

Also, do read this:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA: NASA’s Kepler telescope spots possible alien megastructures surrounding a huge star:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

CASC/CATIC’s CH-4B Rainbow armed UAV for Iraqi Army Aviation:

Mayur M Manapure said...

I was just going to post the link about about the Kepler's finding.
The civilization if existing must be 10000 or more years ahead of us.
You mentioned that THAAD should be assisted by at least 3 satellites for early warning. If India goes for it, who will be launching those satellites, ISRO or NASA?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MAYUR M MANAPURE: Why 10,000 years? Why not millions of years? Possibilities are endless.

The IAF already plans for having 3 dedicated space-based surveillabce (SBS) satellites with IR sensors, plus 1 as a standby. The first experimental sensor of this type is already on board the Indian Navy's GSAT-7. But it will take more than 5 years to attain core technological competency in developing high-end sensors for the 4 SBS satellites--all of which will be launched with ISRO-developed satellite launch vehicles. So what happens in the meantime? The only other option--if the IAF wants to deploy THAAD TMD batteries in the near future--is to link up with the existing US network of early-warning satellites.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Watch this facinating video-clip of Japan GSDF’s Type 10 MBT & the perfection of its hydropneumatic suspensions & turret-traverse system:

Gopu said...

If there were only two legitimate candidates for the MMRCA at the start (Boeing Super Hornet and Dassault Rafale), why were 6 airplanes tested and two dissimilar airplanes short-listed (since the Typhoon never met the IAF's MMRCA parameters from the start of the program)? The logical winner should have been the Super Hornet if you ONLY factor in the planes themselves and their respective prices. While your logical reasoning of the Rafale's selection makes sense, the actual decision making of the MMRCA does not reflect this same vein of thinking (especially when the IAF is categorizing its planes as 'light', 'medium', or 'heavy' rather than on the functionality of the plane and its usage, like all modern air forces do).

How exactly were French SSN's and PWR's factored in the DPP, which as a procurement document has no scope for this type of macro-strategy? Who negotiated for this implicit but "tangible" clause, and why did this have to be part of the Rafale deal versus any other deal with the French such as the Scorpene deal (my guess is the French choose the most expensive deal to 'sweeten' the offer - otherwise, the French coincidentally paired their offer with the most expensive procurement of a single asset?)?

"The leveraging is thus NOT ABOUT reducing any procurement cost, but instead, it is all about securing certain critical, TANGIBLE operational (not industrial) capabilities."

Could you explain how the French will provide what the Russians will/can not do for India?

Also if there was no R&D on the Arihant program, does that mean Russia is providing all the design details for the Arihant follow-on class?

rad said...

HI Prasun
good detail about the nirbhay. Is it so easy to back engineer the nirbhay?
would they have given access to the terminal homing tech ?.Of course the nav package is indian as we seem to be good in that. What would be the terminal homing package.An SAR radar,? dsmac? terrain following . Will it be easy to incorporate the brahmos seeker ?.
Is india going in for the s-400, thaad etc. IN that case we can opt for the Israeli arrow as well. How is this going to be achieved with MCTR.

Devopriyo said...

Nirbhay test report

Siddharth said...

Nirbhay does a nose dive.


Prasun DA,

(1) Based on CIA disclosures it seems India Gandhi wanted to strike Paki nuclear facilities way back in 1981 but did not carry out these strikes for some reason.

Was it due to US pressure that she backed off?

(2) Why is the US developing the XS-1 military space plane? Is it meant to target hostile enemy satellites?


Arpit Kanodia said...


If galaxy is already colonized, then artificial structure like Dyson Sphere, Dyson Ring and Von Neumann Probe should be abundant in galaxy, further SETI failed to find any kind of energy manipulation in stars.

If seriously a million years advanced civilization live next door to us, then still why Fermi Paradox exist in the Milky Way Galaxy? But also the Fermi Paradox is contradictory to Drake Equation in Milky Way galaxy.

How this is possible that a galaxy that is as much as old as Universe is still not colonized?

Unknown said...

Prasun sir have some queries...1) historically Tibet and aksaichin is a part of india or China? Become I read somewhere that during a short rule Tibet was under india.2)apollo 20 video showing large abandoned lunar city is a myth. Or true 2) sir u said for larger Indian geostratrgic interest pok should come under Indian control is it possible in foreseeable future and what about skasm Valley which was a part of pok now under Chinese rule?3)if Pakistan breaks apart and sind baluchistan joins India while Fata and khybar pakhtunkawa joins Afghanistan what will happen to land locked upper punjab?4)why sir after spending billions of dollars in r&d China not been able to built a decent jet engine for fighter aircraft? Thanks dipan

Mayur M Manapure said...

Why PM is taking such a long time to implement reforms in the defence sector. Isn't there a one single sane, straight thinking person who can set things atleast in right direction so that others ahead don't f@#k-up. I know its not a day's work to unfuck the deeds of Antony.

@dipan: No ...nobody wants sindh or Baluchistan.

Anup said...


As per Boeing Chairman James McNerney Boeing have only one C-17 left.
IAF req. three. It's possible to purchase USAF used C-17 for IAF?

And per your answer about SU-30MKI price why no one in India raising voice?

RAT said...

Hi Prashun,
Thanks for all the info as I am seeing things Dassault Rafale upgrade seems to be the AMCA with India likely abandoning the AMCA solo walk and joining the French German bandwagon along with Brazil. Also all the military stuff is reversed engineered it was the Germans that had made the stuff during WW2 majority of which went to US along with the Scientist then was put under scanner reversed engineered and upgraded. Everyone knows that so why should the Indians not at least we give them Indian name Nirbhay (never be afraid of failure), Tejas (yeah teja teja kya hai)and finally BrahMos (all bhram where is hosh). All the so called intellects passing from IITs and IISc and other well established places what have they produced so far? Whats the use of all this calling everything Indian made or make in India. Even the Urea for crops is imported WOW.

Anonymous said...


VERY GREAT PRASUN, a very good new thread.

You have criticized diff govt. estalishments(and govt. itself) numerous times that ruled India and also mentioned shortcomings of our armed forces frequently.

In the reply given to JOYDEEP GHOSH in maiden-test-firing-of-indias-nirbhay you have mentioned the so called DEVASTATING SECURITY BREACHES in the past, THEN WHY YOU HAVE FORGOTTEN TO REVEAL THE MOTHER OF ALL FUCK-UPS that took place right after the conclusion of 1998 nuclear tests of india and pakistan


What is your EXPERT VIEW on this?

Anonymous said...



raw13 said...


Ghauri's are coming to end of life and not being replaced. Infact they are only good for terror strikes. Hatif III's the latest versions are still being produced and improved with avoidance technology. They when used in swarm tactis will have same type of effect as a small nuke. Shaheen II & III are the nuke armed ones.

Obama will ask Pak not to use TBM and nukes when attacked by india. Pak reply is simple they wont be used if we are not attacked, so no issue. With BJP gov and your chiefs making regular threats against us, to answer Obama's question is very easy. Infact NS will probably say, give freedom to the Kashmiri's and you can have our nukes too.

Anonymous said...

@Prasun da,

having a great time reading your very informative threads...thank you.

I always used to wonder what is actually stopping fighter aircrafts from using Lasers to fry the incoming AAMs and even SAMs using lasers, just like what they experimented with YAL. Did not know that it was technically difficult (which i guess this airborne turret may solve?).

on another (sorry if it is naive) question, why no one tried to fit in an APS (tank) like system in a fighter to destroy an incoming SAM instead of trying all the best to evade such a thing. Is there any information in this regard, or is it physically impossible? hope you wont find my naive physics irritating.

And on a different note, thanks for the link on alien mega structures. When I started reading your blog some 8 years back, i was quite skeptical of an alien life, but it now looks just a matter of time before concrete evidences are provided to public by the space agencies. It is quite surprising that civilizations can last without conflicts and grow big enough to live up millions of years!


Sreenivas R.

Anonymous said...

Putin signs 2.5B to build pipeline in Pak

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@3.11AM: That’s great news indeed! Another target to be added to the IAF’s air-tasking order. The IAF always loves to operate within a target-rich environment, rest assured.

Will answer the rest of the queries later today.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

RAW13 A.K.A.STANDUP COMEDIAN: PA’s alleged TNWs are meant for use only inside Pakistani territory in response to a full-scale Indian attack. But what if a combined airmobile & air-assault force of the IA & IAF were to deploy an Integrated Combat Brigade along the Mangla Dam area with the aim of capturing the Marala headworks, while four infantry divisions backed up by field artillery assaults break out right into PoK with the aim of capturing Gilgit-Baltistan? ? Will the PA then use TNWs against this assault force & thereby also say goodbye to all of Islamabad’s Rawalpindi’s water supplies? This scenario is what’s giving headaches & migrains to the GHQ in Pindi.

Obama’s forthcoming request to Pakistan about doing away with conventionally armed TBMs & IRBMs will be made in such a way that Pakistan will have no other choice but to decline. This in turn will the US the perfect excuse to obtain the necessary export approvals from the US Congress to supply THAAD TMD systems to India. This will therefore also serve to greatly diminish the strategic deterrent value of Pakistan’s nuclear WMDs. In other words, the trap has already been set & both the Sharifs (the civilian & Khaki-clad military wallah) will be walking into a well-laid trap. What will help the US even more is an audit of the number of times either India or Pakistan have engaged in nuclear sabre-rattling. The score so far: India, 0 & Pakistan, more than 50 since 1986. It is therefore a given that the US, the UK, Iran, Afghanistan & the CARs “sub India ki zubaan mein Bol Rahein Hain”. And everyone now is also asking questions like “Pakistan aur kab tak girain gay PoK ke aansoo?”

In fact, leave alone PoK (including Gilgit-Baltistan), even places like Kohistan & Chitral are 200 years behind the rest of Pakistan! Don’t believe me? Then watch & hear what the current PML-N politician charged with administering Gilgit-Baltistan has to say on the state of affairs in that occupied territory. Also pay special attention to the critical legal mistake made by Pakistan in 1948 while negotiating with the UN & how, as a result, Gilgit-Baltistan can never be legally separated from the Indian state of J & K. This is the very first time that this issue has been discussed threadbare & fully exposed by a Pakistani on-the-record:

The above video-clip will conclusively prove to everyone who exactly wants freedom & from whom & why.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Listen to what UK-based Mirpuri Kashmiris have to say about the denial of human rights in PoK:

Excellent analysis on why the US policy on Afghanistan has changed overnight:

And finally, listen to a retired PA Lt Gen explaining why & how the US has decided to maintain unrelenting pressure on Pakistan to denuclearise, & why no one in the world believes a word of what Pakistan says about Afghanistan:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To NR: VMT indeed. Do watch the following:

China's March Into Space

Spies in the Sky

sweet said...

My line toughts are a bit different...

A month or so back, Pkaistan said it wants to maintain "full deterence spectrum", I'm not sure what this exactly means, but I believe pakistanis want to have an air-luanched and sub-luanched nuclear weapons as well. Pakistan doesn't have the money nor the capability to build a nuclear sub, but a cruise missle tipped with nuclear warhead can be launched from conventional submarine, may be this is what pakistanis are aiming for. This is what excatly the americans want to stop pakistanis from doing. A pakistani nuclear weapon under the sea is threat to world peace, may be Iran might have pushed the world powers to restrict the pakistani nukes during the latters negotiations on its nuclear program.

The deal is not to make pakistan a member of NSG, pakistan's any chances of being a member of NSG became a pipe dream the very moment it sold nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and north korea, added to this, the nasty footprints of pakistani nuclear weapons trail became even more dirtier when pakistanis used the money from arabs to develop their nuclear weapons. It's also well known that A.Q Khan wasn't acting alone, the Pakistani military was also inovlved in the dirty deals as well.

This is unacceptable to west. The only way to lure pakistanis to stop dvelopeing more nukes is to say all beautiful and sweet things. Any hardtalk or hard demands from the west is assured to make pakistanis reject any kind of deal. And hence, in the media, they are making the deal sound too good, but ofcorse, it is too good to be true. The deal is to restrict pakistan from deploying any sea based, air launched, and ballistic missiles of greater range. Pakistan won't be accepted as a meber of NSG, that is for sure.

sweet said...

Forgot to include Tactical nuclear weapons in the list above.

G said...


I have to ask .... What is avoidance technology???

Parikrama said...

7. why SSBN arihant does not have
a. A module like Virginia Payload Module
b. Specifically Torpedo launched CMs ability like Popeye Turbo of Dolphin II if ISrael..
Why have we never considered Dolphin2 and such a modification.
ou said " IF the Nirbhay was a cloned version of the Novator 3M14E Klub LACM", if we have the blue prints why we have still not envisioned torpedo launch or even VPM type Tubes to get much better arming?
Arihant Sea trials if what MSMedia is reporting then its a joke when sea trials is just few months and no one knows whats the depth endurance and other tests carried out before being handed over to IN. or is the timeline in real more and not declared in public..

8. a small link for you..
Ppl claim S20 export version whereas Pete says Ming.. Pak claims S20 unofficially and offcially Chinese say nothing.. 5-6Bn $ with financial package to a country which is already heavily funded by PRC... Do you see any logic.. or you feel Pete is correct in assessing it as Ming class and hence Chinese officials are quiet over it. if its S20 also, whats your assessment... and pray do tell us, from where they will get money or divert money

9. Lots of efforts on way to control Pak N arsenal.. seems too much of N posturing and past illegal exports is finally making USA move in post Iran to Pak... But do you see pak establishment relenting and agreeing.. As long as they have their mighty all weather friend PRC supporting them.. or its now more of a olive branch to a rogue regime and slowly assimilating it to mainstream massess and giving them a new identity.

Thanks a ton and happy Durga puja in advance..
Rgds, Parikrama

Devopriyo said...

Seems like PKS' predictions

Arpit Kanodia said...

@sweet He definitely was not working alone, PAF planes was used for delivering materials to Libya.

raw13 said...


You just keep repeating the same thing. Like you did that Pakistan only had 10 nukes under Chinese control, while the rest of the world said otherwise.

Let me also repeat, TNW will be launched from NASR system and they will be used on tactical formations threatening Pakistan during the war. If these forces are attacking Pakistan, and lets say the epi-centre of the Armored Div is 3km in India, it will be taken out PERIOD. TNW will be used on Brigade+ sized formations (within +10 to -10km from the border), during the war. Infact it is these TNWs, which are about to be operationalised that has the USA worried.

Have you seen the latest reports coming out of the White House and Pakistan 2 days ago about the deal? Obama would like to have India inside the NSG but cannot do so without Chinese approval. So India and Pakistan have been lumped together. Pakistan is in no rush.

Please send over the assault on the Mangla Dam, but you will need more than an assault Brigade there. The locals there are all armed to the teeth. Also tell me what is the purpose of the BABUR and RAAD cruise missiles. It is to knock out things like your dam heads. Can you imagine how many indians will die of starvation if we simply knocked out 20% of your Dam and water barrages?

The other thing you got very wrong, that China will actually build the nuke plants at Karachi. Guess what they are being built as we speak. I guess another target for the IAF?

Unknown said...

nice article...

CARROT said...

Sir your analysis of what is about to happen:

Obama’s forthcoming request to Pakistan about doing away with conventionally armed TBMs & IRBMs will be made in such a way that Pakistan will have no other choice but to decline. This in turn will the US the perfect excuse to obtain the necessary export approvals from the US Congress to supply THAAD TMD systems to India. This will therefore also serve to greatly diminish the strategic deterrent value of Pakistan’s nuclear WMDs. In other words, the trap has already been set & both the Sharifs (the civilian & Khaki-clad military wallah) will be walking into a well-laid trap. What will help the US even more is an audit of the number of times either India or Pakistan have engaged in nuclear sabre-rattling. The score so far: India, 0 & Pakistan, more than 50 since 1986. It is therefore a given that the US, the UK, Iran, Afghanistan & the CARs “sub India ki zubaan mein Bol Rahein Hain”. And everyone now is also asking questions like “Pakistan aur kab tak girain gay PoK ke aansoo?”

Is certainly a mouth-watering prospect but can I ask where have you got the information that this is to occur from? And what kind of time line are we looking at for such a trap to be implemented?

Also sir, I don't think Obama is the kind of POTUS to pull this off, he seems to become more and more indifferent by the day and less and less effective, does he have the inclination or the balls to pull such a feat off?

sweet said...

'munir akram' was Pakistani former ambassador to UN.

And such a high ranking official had wrote that the reason why Pakistan was not give nuclear deal was because Pakistan was apparently a 'Muslim country'. The kind of retards work at even the highest offices in Pakistan is quite surprising. I mean, fuck the fact that Pakistan gave nuclear secrets to rogue states, fuck the fact that they gave these nuclear secrets to Islamic nations so as to make them powerful and to stop dominance of the western nations in middle east....apparently, Pakistanis being 'Muslims' is the only reason why they don't want to give nuclear deal to Pakistan.

“Yes we want a nuclear deal and are candidates for NSG membership, but there is no desperation for this. The Americans probably misread us, a senior Pakistani official said in a background briefing on the issue."

hahahaha......the only one's misreading are the Pakistanis. Ever since India got nuclear deal, Pakistanis have been running from corner to corner of the world begging for same kind of deal. After having been refused the deal, their desperation lead to piling of nuclear weapons at the fastest rate.
Pakistanis desperately want a nuclear deal with the west, they desperately want to be part of all the regimes or organisations where India eventually is destined to become part of, so as to make sure India doesn't stop Pakistan becoming part of these organisation in future.

It's the Pakistanis who are 'desperate' to be treated 'equal' to India. Once in two to three months you see Pakistani minister talking about nuclear weapons, 'non-discriminatory' basis nuclear deal, parity with India etc.

the great part is the news which appeared today in Pakistani websites.

It was about India's conventional military superiority, Pakistanis clearly linked any nuclear weapons restriction program to India's conventional superiority, not to India's nuclear deal or nuclear capability. They want India to give up its conventional armaments so that Pakistanis can consider restricting their nuclear weapons program. No country can stop or even question India's conventional military build-up, with that logic, Pakistanis will keep piling nuclear weapons so that their imaginary equation of "deterrence" remains in balance.

Pakistan and India lumped together in NSG? LMAO...... vast majority of the states part of NSG have endorsed India's candidature at NSG, the only big hurdle is's only a matter of time before India becomes part of NSG. In case of Pakistan, the only country to have endorsed Pakistan's case for NSG membership is china, and no power has come forward rooting for Pakistan to become member of NSG, and looking at recent situation of Pakistan, hardly any country will ever come forward. India and Pakistan stand poles apart.

Magicbullet said...

Accha ji...Wahid aatmi quawat ke tatte dheray dheray maroday ja rahey this revelation as to how the operatives were using the hospital and hence the bombing...interesting Times indeed

birbal said...

Hello everyone,

Watch why Israel is one-step ahead of opposition...

Anonymous said...


your arguments are as such self defeating ones.

you say that TNW are to be used to defend massive incursions of Indian military in a future war. However, the idea (convoluted one) is that Pakistan has every right to nuke its own territory, if an intruder comes in. Till that much, it is fine (though flawed logic). However, if the nuke is used even 1 meter inside the Indian territory, as per the official doctrine of India, the retaliation would be massive and unacceptable. So in essence it is like bartering a pinch and get knockout in return!!!
Even the idea of using TNW in Pak soil against India forces, is a guess work that India and the world will consider it acceptable. What if it does not?. The advantage of a first strike, which Pakistan professes, is lost with this very basic step. Such a sub-threshold attack will give India a perfect excuse to retaliate massively. With a country with such a geography, Pakistan is not well positioned to do second strike, unless submarine based nukes are acquired. Even if it managed to pull off a second strike, it can at best be loser's revenge, unless a mutually assured destruction is really assured (like NATO fielded TNW because they had MAD capability with USSR, first or second strike). How can such a flawed logic which professes defeatist approach help sustaining peace, which the nukes are supposed to provide?

Somehow, sanity is not prevailing in Pakistan's mindset, that nuclear weapons are never designed to be used in real, but serves as a weapon of deterrence. Even considering the use in real battlefield is utterly foolish logic. If you use nukes as a means to serve the big fat ego and threaten your adversary every now and then, the very purpose of such a weapon is lost, and you increasingly become a sore point in international opinion, just like it did now.

Sreenivas R.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SREENIVAS R: It's no use explaining matters to the spectacularly ignorant. The following factoids have to be considered first:

1) Despite Pakistan's utmost efforts, India is not being deterred, nor are Afghanistan & Iran. In other words, Pakistan's strategic deterrence posture isn't getting g any buyers outside Pakistan. GHQ in Pindi thought that nuclear WMDs will deter any kind of conventional war while allowing Pakistan to continue sub-conventional wars. But this massively backfired in mid-1999 when each Indian 'baniya' proved himself to be 10 times superior to the average PA soldier & that too at forbidding heights.

2) As I had explained earlier, it is the NPT signatories like Afghanistan & Iran that are disgusted wioth Pakistan's nuclear sabre-rattling, & the US, UK, France, Russia & India therefore cannot allow Pakistan to get away with it, NEVER. Actions will have consequences. The choice is clear: if Iran is to be cleansed of WMD R & D/production, then the same must be the fate of Pakistan as well. Iran cannot live the existential threat of a nbeighbouring Sunni state armed with nuclear WMDs.

3) The Saudis & UAE had realised by 2005 itself that Pakistan never ever possessed any R & D capacity for developing nuclear WMDs. That's when they decided to do a deal with the 'devil' & initiated back-room parleys with the Israelis & Indians for acquiring strategic nuclear umbrella. India & Israel together in one voice told the GCC member-states that if it ever came to the crunch, both India & israel will extend their respective nuclear umbrellas to protect the GCC member-states from any kind of nuclear WMD-type threats emanating from anywhere, be it from Iran or from anywhere else--all this of course being done with US blessings. Iran had some very heated arguments with India between 2007 & 2010, but eventually saw the writing on the wall & decided instead to become a 'virtual nuclear state', instead of withdrawing from the NPT & acquiring nuclear WMDs.

4) That's precisely why the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia & UAE have openly stated that they now know who their real/true friends are, & have decided to ditch Pakistan for good.

5) The US, meanwhile, is determined to bring the Iranian case to closure, which cannot be done until the abbeters & facilitators of Iran's clandestine nuclear programmes are taught the lesson of their lives as well, meaning both China, Pakistan & North Korea have to be held accountable & punished. That's why Obama is now tightening the screws around Pakistan (which is approved by Iran as well) by threatening Pakistan with total cutoff of IMF financial aid if it decides to use this money for financing the CPEC. Iran too wants CPEC to be terminated due to obvious reasons.

cont'd below....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

6) The US, EU, Japan along with India are extremely pissed off with the sudden devaluation of the Chinese Yuan at a time when the Yuan should have appreciated, since it was undervalued since the late 1980s itself. Again, such negative actions by China will only bring about negative consequences upon China.

7) If the OP Parakram scenario of 2002 is to be repeated, the next time it won't be a unilateral Indian mobilisation, but it will be a multinational coalition operation with only 2 objectives: de-nuclearisation of Pakistan & Indian sovereignty being upheld over PoK (inclusive of Gilgit-Baltistan). For this to happen, the air forces of the US, France & the UK will need to have access to IAF air bases in western & north-western India. Six squadrons of MMRCAs from each country will be enough, because the USAF B-2s from Diego Garcia too will partake in an offensive coalition air campaign against the 77 land-based targets inside Pakistan. This is where air exercises like GARUDA, INDRADHANUSH & COPE INDIA become important because they have already allowed these overseas air forces to devise common rules of engagement (ROE) with the IAF.

8) In such a scenario (that has already been wargamed), all 3 IA Strike Corps will be concentrated in the Thar Desert 40km away from the IB following a 20-day mobilisation period, with the PA doing the same at its end, facing eyeball-to-eyeball. In case the PA decides to hurl its TNWs inside Indian territory, retaliation will be swift & proportional, since India had also tested sub-kiloton warheads in May 1998. Therefore, no one from the PA will be the first to use TNWs.

9) By this time the coalition air campaign would have begun in full force & will last for 96 hours at best. Concurrently, the IA's holding corps of the Southwestern & Northern Commands will execute the actual offensive along the Sialkot-Chhamb corridor & also all along the LoC, with the objective of capturing PoK for good. While the six squadrons of MMRCAs & a few E-3 AEW & CS platforms from the UK, France & US will be enough to guarantee the safety of India's airspace, it will free up the IAF to use all its aircraft assets in relentless CAS & tactical interdiction sorties, thereby making up for the shortage of the IA's field artillery firepower.

cont'd below...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

10) Special use will; be made of the IAF's 12 C-130H-30s equipped with FLIR turrets to seek out & carpet-bomb the PA's armour/artillery staging areas. Even Su-30MKIs armed with gravity bombs will be employed for this task. Barrier CAPs will be flown by Su-30MKIs armed with BVRAAMs/WVRAAMs, but these will be unnecessary because the USAF B-2Bs would by then have totally knocked out all relevant PAF air bases & their HAS structures. Therefore, while the air forces of the US, UK & France & even thre carrier-based US Navy aircraft will focus on the attainment of air supremacy over Pakistan's airspace & the detailed destruction of Pakistan's WMD storage/launch areas, the IAF will be free to prosecute its own AirLand campaign in support of the IA with the sole objective of securing PoK right up to Chitral & the Wakhan Corridor within a 7-day period.

What all of the above translates into is that the IA's 3 strike corps formations will be used only as a feint for deception purposes, & the real war will be fought much farther north, with the existing holding corps formations being 'cold-started' from their existing peacetime locations throughout northern Punjab/south Jammu right up to NJ-9842 along the LoC, & being backed up within 72 hours by at least 3 mountain divisions redeployed from the North East to the Northern Command. This is what the IA's 'pro-active strategy is all about, & it is evident from the above that no such thing as 'Cold Start' doctrine even exists.

Of course many will ask: what about China? Well, China has to choose whether it wants to reap benefits from its CPEC-related investments in Pakistan after 20 years, or wants to retain the US$60 billion per annum bilateral trade with India. Being mercantile to the core, Beijing will definitely opt for the latter with its eyes closed.

All of the above constitutes the ANATOMY OF AN EVENT FORETOLD. Conclusions are all derived from events already transpired, & are not based on figments of any imagination, rest assured. With one-third of the PA presently engaged in low-intensity conflict (LIC) along the Durand Line, another one-third engaged in rest & recuperation & the remaining one-third being busy with training in anticipation of participating in LIC-related operations within Pakistan, the PA will not be able to function as a conventional warfighting force till 2022 at the very least. Just find out for the past how many years it has desisted from conducting its annual 'Azm-e-Nau' series of exercises & you will get my point.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SWEET: Full-Spectrum Deterrence means the availability of both strategic nuclear WMDs & TNWs that can be launched from land, sea & air.

If you want to know more all this & Pakistan's WMD application doctrine, then I suggest you watch these:

And if you want to start your week with a good laugh, then watch these 2 'interviews' with alleged 'Hindu' Pakistani traitors who were reportedly working for R & AW:

If this is the kind of evidence Pakistan has to present to the world, then all I can say is that "Allah hi Hafiz Hai."

blackurrant said...

Prasun Sir,

Azm e Nau was last conducted in 2013 and in 2010 before that. What it proves is that PA is busy in counter insurgency. PA can't focus on anything else.

Gessler said...

Damn.....Prasun ji. I was just about to ask you something regarding de-nuclearising Pakodistan and you blew the whistle all over me even before I could...I'm not complaining though. The latest replies do fill in a lot of details about the how-to of various 'problems' that any force engaged with Pak will probably face. You sure done your homework, and you've done it well just as always.

However, looking at all those NATO assets that would possibly be deployed (within India), I'm drawn to ask the question if that could pose any problems for us down the years? I suppose they will leave as soon as conclusion of the operation (it would probably be paranoid on my part to think otherwise, but still...).

Now I got some more gapfiller questions to ask:

1) How & where exactly will PAF's airpower be concentrated in such a scenario? I understand that the tactic on the Coalition's part will be to decimate any/all PAF air-bases through use of tactical cruise missiles or other standoff weapons launched from aircraft, ships & subs, even before the air campaign to attain total air-superiority over Pak as much as begins! So I assume there won't be much of any air-combat ensuing between PAF jets and Coalition planes?

2) What role could IAF's bases in Tajikistan (Farkhor/Ayni) play in this campaign? Do we even have clearance to fly off combat sorties from those bases?

3) What about Pakistan's naval assets? Especially the Agostas. There can possibly be no way that they can directly affect the Coalition AirLand campaign, but certainly if they manage to underway (undersea actually) they can possibly trouble any Coalition naval assets in the region, can't they? Which leads to me ask the next question...

4) What would be IN's role in all this?

5) I could definitely do with some more details as far as the action on the land goes - leaving the IA push to capture PoK (inc. GB) aside, what could be the Indian (or NATO) special forces involvement in the effort to de-nuclearise Pakistan? I mean actual boots on the ground...because obviously we cannot just bomb the shit out of those facilities and leave - we actually need to get in there and take control of things afterwards, because I can imagine based on what I know, that things in Pak won't be good at all after this, there's gonna be massive riots, insurgents running free, and what not. The security of nuclear materials (or any military assets for that matter) needs to be ensured by external powers! I'd assume the Indian involvement in this part, if that idea is even there, would & should be considerable. Your insight?

6) What would be the state of Pakistan afterwards? You have indeed explained us all about the whole Baluchistan aspect, FATA regions going to Afghanistan (?), Phaktunistan (If I remember correctly) etc. I would think Pakistan as we know it won't exist for much longer after the said campaign. How do you think the whole process of fragmented states will begin (after India grabs PoK)?

Will get back to you if I have more questions to ask (and I will)...a HUGE thanks for
all your insights & efforts to keep us in the know - you're work is totally appreciated, and looked forward to!

Again, Thanks in advance!!

Arpit Kanodia said...


How the most of the Pakistani, and even all conclude this Pakistan deterring Indian rise and hegemony, which is totally illogical statement. The power projection of India increased exponentially in last 20 years, and the Pakistan not able to bring down India even with sub conventional warfare strategy.

Even if stalemate remain between India and Pakistan, Indian power projection is still rising,and will rise by many folds in coming future. The power difference between India and Pakistan broadening with each passing year, so how can anyone conclude this illogical statement?

When the Pakistan not able to bring down India in 60s, when the power difference was least then how they can now?

buddha said...

sir pujo r suvechaa neben

RASAYAN said...

HI Prasun,

Thanks for such an insight in IAF.

@birbal...nice link about Israel defense industry...check this out...

Sk said...


What is your comment on this?


sandip said...

Confirmation of your predictions regarding curb on Pakistani Nuclear & missile programme from Pakistan itself

CHILL said...

Sir, I must say the above narrative of a de-nuclearised pakistan and POK returned to India is most compelling as well as how it takes place but I have some doubts:

1) India is not in any kind of formal alliance with the US, France or the UK and refuses to sign CISMOA or LSA let alone allow for their air assets to be deployed in India for combat missions.

2) When will this occur exactly? Pakistan is getting stronger year by year so the sooner the better

3) Won't a war (on any scale) have enormous consequences for our economy?

4) What about the blowback? Pakistan is the world's largest breeding ground of terrorists, pound their infrastructure and institutions into the ground and you'll have 100,000s of terrorists lining up to enter India.

5) How could/would the Indian/US coalition prevent the Pakis from using their nuclear weapons once an all out conventional war begins with them? A few local commanders taking things into their own hands could mean major Indian cities and millions of us being wiped out and our country being decimated for decades. The risks seem too great.

VMT for your replies

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

Looks like you were spot on about the Russian air campaign in Syria

Best Regards

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: VMT. These won’t be NATO assets, but the national assets of the participating countries in the coalition of the willing. In late 2001 India was not part of NATO & yet provided naval escorts to US Navy vessels transiting the Malacca Straits. Therefore, while the RAF will bring in some 20 EF-2000 Typhoons along with one E-3 & some aerial refueling tankers, the French would do the same with some 20 Rafales & aerial refuelling tankers, while the USAF will come in with 20 Raptors & E-3s. This force will be more than enough to provide barrier CAPs 24/7 overt the entire western theatre along with 3 squadrons of Su-30MKIs. The IAF will keep 12 squadrons of Su-30-MKIs, MiG-29UPGs & MiG-27UPGs along the northern front just to keep an eye on the PLAAF’s activities in TAR & Xinjiang. The USAF’s B-2Bs will take off from Diego Garcia & will require air-transit corridors within Indian airspace, which isn’t a problem at all. USN SSNs in the Arabian Sea will be available with TLAMs.

This air campaign will not be like anything fought before, because the principal objective will not be the wholescale destruction of Pakistan’s armed forces, but only their stockpiles of nuclear WMDs. In this limited war with limited objectives, the first sorties by the USAF will knock off the ADGES network of the PAF by taking out their less-than-ten high-power radars & less-than-25 medium-power radars, the AEW & CS platforms resting at Masroor & Kamra, & all the military ATC radars of the PAF. Only after this has been achieved over a 48-hour period that phase-2 will begin, i.e. the physical destruction of all the storage areas & launch areas of Pakistan’s nuclear WMDs & their delivery systems. Chances are that the PAF will be wise enough to keep their combat aircraft assets holed up in Jacobabad, Shorkot, Peshawar & Sargodha & choose not to fight. But in case they decide to tangle with the IAF over PoK, they will simply be overwhelmed by the qualitatively & numerically superior IAF, sinbce the IAF won’t have to mount defensive counter-air sorties—this being done by the EF-2000s, Rafales & Raptors. SOF elements from the US & UK will also be deployed to physically verify the detailed-destruction of all WMD assets.

As for the IA, it’s main objective will be the physical capture of PoK & nothing else, thereby proving to everyone that India does not wish to covet even an inch of territory that does not belong to her. This will enable India to gain the upper moral ground & also gain wholehearted support from her US, British, French & Russian friends.

India’s war-effort will be staged from Indian territory & not from anywhere else. There’s simply no need to once the PAF has been neutralised in detail by the USAF. Similarly, this will be primarily an AirLand effort, & the IN won’t be required to unleash its firepower & in return the PN too will be confined to its shore-based bases.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: Pakistan’s main grouse today is that the stalemate no longer exists. The differential is so high that Pakistan can’t even dream about attaining parity with India in any conceivable sphere. Hence all the bickering, whining & cursing from the other side.

To SK: Every product that has been developed for the very first time takes time to mature, both from the stand standpoint & production-engineering standpoint. The mere fact that within a 10-year period, there have come out 4 different versions of the Dhruv, each more advanced than the other, proves that things are headed in the right direction.

To CHILL: 1) One doesn’t require formal alliances to form a temporary coalition of the willing. The mere fact that India has hosted the Cope India, Indradhanush, Garuda, Cope Sling & Indra series of bilateral air-exercises on her soil without being an signatory to any formal military alliance proves my point. 2) Exactly when I don’t know. But it will happen most probably by 2018. How can Pakistan be getti8ng stronger by the year when it is engaged in an existential conflict with elements from within the country & it can’t even retain control over its principal financial hub—Karachi? 3) Not at all. This won’t be a full-scale war involving overwhelming retaliation, but merely a high-intensity limited war lasting no more than 10 days. 4) How is that even possible when the ‘deep state’ that’s supposed to be sponsoring all these terrorists itself is decapitated? Who will then provide the terrorists with finances, food & weapons? 5) Local commanders don’t have the keys to the nuclear WMDs. Only the COAS of the PA & his GHQ do. Again, I’m repeating that this won’t be an all-out conventional war, but a limited high-intensity war waged by a multinational coalition of the willing.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJ: VMT. But the Ruskies are not looking forward to export the Su-34, but rather the Su-30SM & Su-39.

BTW, here's the official IAF account of the 1965 air war:

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

Do you think India will still go ahead with the operations to de-nuke Pak and liberate PoK if the timeline is beyond 2019, and for some unfortunate reason BJP is no long in power at the center?

Best Regards

Raman said...

Hello !!! this reads like a scenario from Tom Clancy (RiP)/Larry Bond/Vince Flynn (RiP) novels ...............nice !

So, it's going to be "Cold Start" for the IAF, rather than the Army..... a Cold Start for the IN to smash the PN would have really added to the fun !!


Anonymous said...

@Prasun da,

VMT for such a detailed report, it is pleasure reading it.

i have three points which you did not elaborate

1) China: For China, sitting idle seeing their cultivated assets being destroyed by Western backed effort wont be possible. They have two main option, one is to supervise a negotiated outcome, where Pakistan is offered a face saver, i.e, removal of all WMD but at the same time maintaining the status quo on GB. simultaneously, bring the pressure on India to negotiate peace by making the Whole of JnK a quasi-state with porous borders. Second one is to help Pakistan with asymmetric war against coalition. I doubt whether they will risk their international power status for 60 billion dollar trade with India. If they do, that is moral defeat that China is not a trustworthy friend, which will not augur well in their own backyard.

2) Is it not possible that a section of PA will side with coalition to avoid a battle of any kind. Many of the powerful's can be bought over, as the allies did in gulf war. Especially so, since there are many fault-lines in PA establishment. This is an appealing scenario, because it will make a few to be super rich, avoid embarrassment of a defeat at India's hand, and at the same time a negotiated outcome on status quo of northern areas. Because jingoistic and foolish hatred-driven nationalism is the unifying factor for Pakistan, a loss of such a face is end of the country. Citizens will start asking uncomfortable questions to the military, especially regarding the worth of stubbornly perpetrated ignorance "just obey in the name of theology not dissent in the name of logic"

3) the repercussions for India: While we would be net benefactors of such a move, we would also have to face some uncomfortable questions on JnK. Any help in getting back the PoK is also end of Simla agreement, that JnK has to be solved bilaterally. This will bring us back to UN resolution of 1948, that we will be forced to conduct a referendum on Kashmir, the outcome of whose may not be in our interest. Remember that the West do not have much interest here; after denuclearising Pakistan, their aim is more or less over. Likely hood is that they will pose the question to India on the status of JnK and take a moral stance there. India would have to face issues from asymmetric war from Pakistani fundamentalists, status of whole JnK,an infuriated China and above all the status of our own nuclear weapons. Remember that at any cost India cannot reply to a misdeed of Pakistan of using TNW. The world will take an idealist stance that India being not an approved NWS has no right to keep nukes (and hence any use is unthinkable), especially when Pakistan is also de nuclearized. The international non-proliferation lobby will pressurize India to give up nukes and sign NPT, even though our nukes are to defend China.


Sreenivas R.

Karan said...

Prasun Sir, with due respect I completely disagree with you that pakistani nuclear weapons can be neutralize by launching attack. Pakistan has over 100 nuclear weapons and although most of them can be neutralize but some will still remain out of reach because it is impossible even for USA to find each and every nuclear site in pakistan. It is impossible to neutralize each one of them because they can be taken out from their site and transported to other places when they are under attack. Unfortunately the fact is that we will have to live with a nuclear armed pakistan.

buddha said...

sir Russia has missed an opportunity to sell Mig 35
if they have them in their force for small number and deployed them in air patrolling and bombing...they could easily sell them to some countries...but somehow i feel they have lost the chance


Prasun Da,

Happy Durga Pujo to you and all your loved ones.


RAT said...

I have a few questions to the pro-Pakistani
1) Pakistan received the most fertile land and good amount of cash during partition even so where does the Pak economy stand today?
2) Pak was very close to US all the military hardware received for years then what happened why is US not giving any Nuke-deal to Pak and not supporting any bid for UNSC?
3) Pak being so called Muslim state(Arab origin as they state) why is no one from Arab country making any real investment in Pakistan's development?
4) Pakistan is so bothered about Kashmir then why does it not pay any attention towards providing any benefits to people in Baluchistan?
5) Where will Pakistan be without Baluchistan and POK with no nuclear WMD and no monetary benefits from West and Arabs?
6) China is the closest friend of Pak even so why is it not providing cutting edge technology but ball mouthing about it and providing 3rd grade copy paste technology?
There was a time that Pak had its pie and option to eat it as well but it always wanted others share as well and now it has a fractured mouth and well the pie has gone stale with molds all over it. Now try eating it.

Wise_Ass said...


I always find your speculation wild.But time after time,your prognosis mostly turns out be true.
Tuesday 0230 GMT October 20, 2015

· A rumor from Kabul sent to us by Major AH Amin (Pakistan Army, Retired), who frequents those parts, has it that Pakistan has agreed to transfer custody of its N-arsenal to the US, which will be held in Saudi Arabia. Further, that Pakistan has decided to demilitarize Kashmir.

· Unfortunately, the rumor comes from a Russian. Two things about the Russians. When they get drunk with friends, they will say anything they take a fancy to saying. And though in the last 15-years or so the US has overtaken Moscow in the art of the Big Lie, the Russians (as also the Americans) are masters of the universe when it comes to disinformation.

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Wise_Ass This is rumor of highest order.

Pakistan will never transfer her custody of nukes to America, or unilateral withdrawal from PoK, this is against Two Nation Theory.

If any govt. do so, then that means they nullifying the cause of Pakistan and undoing Partition, which impossible in Pakistan case with current myopic mindset.

alexi said...

What benefits does the west gain from de-nuking Pakistan?

raw13 said...


You have stopped taking your anti-delusional tablets again!!!
Your doctor wont be happy.

Want to know your real power:

When Xi went to USA, Mark Zuckerberg had 1 minute to speak with Xi and he did that in Mandarin and bowed.

When Modi went to USA, he went to Mark Zuckerberg's office and hugged him and spoke to Mark Zuckerberg in English.

--> This tells the world your power!!!

Anonymous said...

Isn't the reason this alleged neighbour (raw13) comes to this blog is, to represent his nations point of view?. Then how does it help if he keeps comparing india to china or their premieres visit with the facebook founder.

How does this make his nation look equal with respect to India. Last I heard or rather i never heard zuckerberg meet the premiere of his country.


rad said...

to raw 13
here you go again,Just because Zuckerberg bowed to zi it does not mean he kissed his arse.It could also mean that Zi is also not well versed with English. His wife is Chinese Vietnamese.He learnt Mandarin to please his wife and not to kiss Zi`s arse. You should understand he is a jew and he will do what it takes to enhance his business in china for money.By the way are you chaps on face book which is owned by a jew??? dont you think it is un islamic??? you poor fellas.
Hugging is more intimate as bodies touch , which is more cordial among friends . How many people hug Zi? Only people from the land of the pure!! So go fly a kite.

rad said...

hi prasun
you mentioned that the aesa radar was not needed for the LCA , but why is the IAF insisting on that?.Is the selex aesa knocked out as it will be not able to integrate the python and derby on it?. More over they seem to be reluctant given the marines case.No mention about IRST so far.Will it be possible to integrate the AESA RADAR on the lca given the cooling and power constraints on the small air frame?
Suneet krishna recently declared that the lca handled better than the mirage-2k. That itself is a great achievement for a first time designers like india.He also said that the thrust was sufficient for the role and had praise for the ge engine for its fuel efficiency compared to the russian types.I remember that the test pilots were surprised by the engine when they initially flew the lca. So is it there is a concerned attack on the lca by vested interests?.
why does the idiots in OFB manufacture the parts that have been cannibalized on the bofors gun? in first instance?.Rather than telling the world that we have only 200 guns left?.

Wise_Ass said...


There is every reason for US/EU to de-nuke Pakistan.It is a matter of time before one or other
Paki scientist give weapons technology to ISIS(and boy dont they have the money as well).For a country based on nutcase ideology,ISIS territory is heaven on earth.But I definitely dont think Obama got the balls to do it.May be a republican president perhaps.It is a no brainer.
Pak civilians as well as top establishment is completely mercantile.They could perhaps give access to silo movement patterns etc to US for hard cash.Besides,like OBL raid,they might have penetrated into Pak establishment like a sieve.

IF I were US,I will try to instigate terrorist attacks on India and start war with Pakistan.
In the confusion of war they can go in&take out weapons and importantly kill critical technical personnel.Or overtly,try to bomb Pakistan nukes after Pakistan uses tactical weapons citing
"moral" reasons for irresponsibly nuking a fellow democracy.In this scenario,we will be the bait.LoL.Have you noticed they let the 26/11 attacks happen although they hacked the 26/11 control room&penetrated the LeT/Huji/313 network way-way beforehand?

Arpit Kanodia said...


I am not questioning on US/UK/France and Indian intent to denuclearize Pakistan. They are morally and legally bind to do so because of Iranian deal. This the reason 15k soldiers were stationed for indefinite period, and this number is now going to increase. And as today Pak Foreign Secretary declared officially about TNW policy, for India denuclearization become necessity.

But, I am only questioning on the news you posted above, the Pakistan will never surrender his nukes and demilitarize PoK with his own will or through negotiation, Coalition forces will have to snatch it.

On ISIS front, building nuclear weapon is not just about technology, but also engineering challenge. One need to build reactors, centrifuges for HEU, recycling and enrichment facilities for extracting Pu, then bomb design, then triggering mechanism and many more things.

ISIS have no access to such facilities.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, kindly share your views regarding recent test of Nirbhay Missile ?

pm said...

sir does india has any deal with srilanka to supply tejas jets.if so which version? if any version of tejas ever be exported to any country what will be its basic armament and who will supply it?

sweet said...

"When Xi went to USA, Mark Zuckerberg had 1 minute to speak with Xi and he did that in Mandarin and bowed.
When Modi went to USA, he went to Mark Zuckerberg's office and hugged him and spoke to Mark Zuckerberg in English.
--> This tells the world your power!!!"

what a colossal douche-bag....

attracting dimwits? the douche-bag has been commenting on this blog for years, what attracted the douche-bag to this blog? a shot of stupidity mixed with usual Pakistani butt-hurt claims of "Pakistan-the warrior nation"?

G said...

Dear Prasun

Read a report that the Russiian Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate i.e. the Second batch is in trouble, because of the lack of power plant due to Ukraine crisis, that they are looking at exporting this batch.

Should IN/ Govt look at this seriously (instead of Make In India) as you are getting 3 frigates in very short time.?

Unknown said...

sir are you sure that india will be going for THAAD & not ARROW misile defence system?

CARROT said...


1) Isn't it quite humiliating that we have to depend on others (US, France, UK) to do our bidding? We should have enough military power to pursue our own military objectives on our own. We are not a client state of the West- what happened to our strategic autonomy?

2) I ab dubious of the UK's involvement in all this, they are not particuarly close to us diplomatically and their establishment is getting more and more infiltrated by Brits of Paki origin. I have lived in the UK and seen it for myself. There are over a million Pakis in that country and they are an organised vote bank that all political parties now have to pander to. UK being involved in an anti-Pakistani mission like this would be almost impossible to imagine with their current appeasement attitude towards Pakistan and Pakis.

3) Wouldn't dropping munitions on WMDs cause a nuclear disaster of untold magnitude?

4) The Pakis have stated numerous time they are willing to escalate any conflict no matter how limited it begins to a full scale nuclear conflict with India- as you have rightly pointed out sir they have done so scores of times and it was in 1999 when they started making very dangerous noises regarding the bomb that meant the US got involved to prevent a nuclear escalation. So wouldn't such a debilitating military action against them inherently lead to a nuclear response from them?

With this in mind we NEED to undertake this strike ASAP, BEFORE they get a second strike capability that they are trying to develop on their AIP chinese subs on order.

5) Have you had some insider information that this is what the GoI is planning? If anyone was planning this it would e our NSA Mr Doval- he is the ultimate strategist and the best NSA we could ask for.

6) What are the chances this would actually happen in your opinion? 20%? 30%?

7) What I meant by Pakistan getting stronger is their economy is doing well- 4% growth consistently now, every year we delay they are using extra funds to develop their military capabilities.

This news of Washington announcing a (severely limiting) nuke deal for the Pakis seems to feed into your narrative as by all accounts it is laced with attempts to limit their nuclear weapons capacity.

Has it escaped your (and the world) that Pakistan has the FASTEST GROWING NUCLEAR WARHEAD stockpile on the PLANET?? The time to strike is NOW.

VMT for your superb analysis as always sir- you are a saint among sinners. These yellow journos are a disgrace to the nation.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIYUSH DAS: Of the two, which one is better? Why should India settle for the second-best solution?

To G: Does Russia have any alternative for the gas-turbines from Ukraine? If there is, why is Russia unable to procure them for these FFGs? Do you want India to procure these FFGs & spend a lifetime searching for alternate gas-turbines from Ukraine?

To PM: The SLAF isn’t interested in procuring any MRCA for the time-being. If at all it wants to replace its F-7MGs & MiG-27Ms in future, it will likely opt for the MiG-29SMT.

To SUMANTA: It is a flaw of an algorithm within the flight-control logic of the Nirbhay. There were no structural or hardware failures.

ALEXI: Not just the West, but the likes of Iran, Israel & Afghanistan in particular. BGut Pakistan isn’t the principal target. It is China the West is gunning for. Without China there would never have been any proliferation of WMDs & their delivery systems to Pakistan, Iran & Libya. It was also through China that the DPRK passed on ballistic missile production expertise to Pakistan & Iran. Much more data on all this will emerge after this December when the Iran Nuclear Deal becomes operative & the IAEA will begin getting access to all the hitherto-restricted Iranian military-industrial facilities.

To VIKRAM GUHA & BUDDHA: The very same to you & all your loved ones.

To BUDDHA: Read this:

“However, one alternative and intriguing possibility is that the linen cloth was weaved in India, as supported perhaps by the original name of the Turin Shroud—Sindon--which appears to derive from Sindia or Sindien, a fabric coming from India”

TO KARAN: By dear ol’chap, the real truth is only now coming out: all forecasts by the non-proliferation ayatollahs were based on calculations made by a US govt-owned lab in Princeton which claims that India has 3.2 metric tonnes of fissile materials, while Pakistan has 3.1 metric tonnes. No one can state with certainty now many cores have been fabricated by Pakistan to date or whether they have been fabricated in-country or abroad. Only one speculative claims that it is ‘possible’ for Pakistan to fabricate 20 cores per annum. But then, where are the TEL vehicles required for carrying their delivery systems, i.e. ballistic or cruise missiles? And how many such TELs are there inside Pakistan? Has anyone given any thought to this angle? At least I have & the figures indicate that no more than 16 TELs are there, including those used for training purposes.

To RAJ: Don’t worry, it will be a coalition effort for sure. Always keep the Israeli & Iranian angles in mind & you will realise that a nuclear WMD-armed India is just isn’t India’s heradache.

To RAMAN: Lolz! VMT, but for those novelists there’s always a solo hero trying to change the course of events, whereas in real life, it’s always a team effort that produces the desired results.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

TO WISE ASS: Obama had enough balls to dramatically escalate the intensity of drone strikes throughout AF-PAK & over Yemen & Somalia, & even ended up assassinating US citizens in the process. US Presidents all have had & will continue to have enough balls to do anything in support of the supreme enlightened national interests of the US. The following links clearly demonstrate that Obama has more than enough ‘balls’ to be as tough & resolute as he wants to be:

Planning for a multinational coalition AirLand campaign takes months, & the first to be deployed for usage will be the scores of stealthy UAVs that have been developed through the ‘black’ projects of the Pentagon. But the targetting priorities are available even now, especially after the US secured 4,400 visas for its intel operatives to enter Pakistan & obtain GPS coordinates of all the 77-odd targets that require neutralizing—all this being done over an 8-month period.

And the forecast on the USAF knocking out the Pakistani WMD sites was first made by the CIA in 2003 as part of its 25-year global forecast patterns, & not me.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: IAF has only stated that it wants a functional multi-mode radar on-board, not a word about AESA-MMR has been stated by any official so far as far as the Tejas Mk1 goes. For Tejas Mk2, definitely AESA-MMR & IRST sensor will have to be on-board. That’s non-negotiable.

Speaking of innovations, here’s an interesting one:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: Your 1st ‘delusional’ flaw: any doctor won’t give a damn whether or not his/her patient consumes the prescribed medication; it’s all up the patient to decide what’s goor or bad for them. Your 2nd ‘delusional’ & most fatal flaw flaw: making enemies with the Jews/Israelis. You obviously haven’t gone through the YouTube weblinks I had posted earlier. Pakistani analysts there are clearly perturbed about the influence of the Israeli/Jewish lobby in Washington DC acting in support of India. No amount of Pakistan’s nukes can obliterate India; there will always be enough to bounce back & eternally trounce Pakistan. But not for the likes of Israel & Iran. Both of them view Pakistan’s nukes as existential threats & therefore have far more reason to worry & therefore lobby in favour of denuclearizing Pakistan forever. Your brethren therefore made fatal errors in not befriending the Jews such as Zuckerberg, Bloomberg, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Feith, Kissinger, etc etc. So now, brace yourself for reaping the whirlwind & try to bend over & kiss your arse goodbye forever!

Lingaraj said...

To Rad & the rest agitated by raw 13: Real power is when you have a super power in your mouth and decide not to bite and chew it as demonstrated by Ms Monica Lewinsky !!! LOLLLZZZ

rad said...

good one lingraj !!!!

Mayur M Manapure said...

That's some good humour lingraj...

Arpit Kanodia said...


I dont think India siting only on 3.1 metric ton of fissile material. The Carnegie report showing India is with 7.1 ton of fissile material. Any comment on this?

One more question, this is possible to move forward on FMCT without Pakistan, and bring an international sanctions through this treaty on Pakistan?

Wise_Ass said...


Thank you for all the input and links.Obama seems to be a closeted spy

What bugged me on discussion of hypothetical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan,
is how do we limit the radiation fallout on Iran/Afghanistan(Pasthuns+Baloch) etc if push come to shove.I may sound macabre,but if Pak throws couple of TNWs on us,we should de-populate Pakistan Punjab wholesale.But how do we limit fallout to other countries(and us)? Ground burst? Neutron bomb?Prasun Sir,I would like to know your thoughts on this!

sweet said...

HAHAHAHAHA........... The dumb f@#k forgot that the Israelis have nukes too. If Pakistan "decided" too take out Israel, Israel will do the same. Forget about "taking out" a sovereign, get you house in order.

"Prasun's problem is that he doesnt really know much about us"

And who are these "us"? There are many internal revolts within Pakistan that actually destroy the myth of "us" or "we" in Pakistani context.

The only "we"or "us" I can think of in this region is Iranian people. From the past thousands of years, Iran(Persia) never faced any internal threats that could prove to be enough dangerous to break up the country, the threats to it were always external. While in the case of Pakistan, the biggest threats to it are internal, signifying that there is no unity among them. The notion that Pakistan is a 'warrior nation' and the 'most advanced' among the Islamic nations is just a myth meant for gullible fools living within the boundaries of the so called "land of pure".

"The Kargil war showed, what we are capable of, with few 1000 of our paramilitary force. You needed USA's help for us to pull back."

Hear the voices of your military and politicians moaning infront of international community when they talk about 'Indian aggression' along LOC, while in reality its not 'aggression' at all. Mere retaliation.

TNW were not developed to deter any India aggression, it was developed as result of Pakistani insecurity which has led to madness fuelled by imaginary failed equation of 'credible deterrence'. History stands as evidence that India never initiated war with Pakistan, it was the Pakistanis. And even the cold start strategy was not about initiating war against Pakistan, it was meant to teach the Pakistanis a lesson in case they ever tried to undertake any misadventure. In which case the cold start would appropriately be 'retaliation' rather than 'aggression'. The Pakistani army is looting billions of dollars in developing WMD's against a threat they themselves have framed upon them.

Pakistan has enough nuclear weapons to retaliate back in the same manner if ever India initiated a war. And there are enough resources-including renewable- in Pakistan that can be utilised to meet all the energy demands without having to rely on expensive and risky nuclear technology. This talk of nuclear deal with western powers is purely because of the butt-hurt of Pakistanis who would never like to see India rise above them.

The development Pakistani nukes has gone way beyond 'credible minimum deterrence' now, because, if the minimum deterrence was to work in a way of Pakistanis logic, then India should have mass produced more nuclear weapons than China.

what if..... said...

Nuclear war is highly overrated. The reason the west makes a big deal about it is because it suits them geo-politico-strategically. While i agree that a nuclear exchange between USSR & USA during the Cold war with thousands of multi megaton warheads would have destroyed the world, i do not see any such thing happening in India Pak context.
Even if both nations use every warhead they have and lets assume they have 200 warheads each which is much higher than any estimate out there,And lets assume the strength at 100kt each which is also a gross overestimation. Now lets assume the two countries using them on the most densely populated population centres.
The highest possible death toll still wont exceed 1/2 a million and injuring 1 million per explosion at best.
This means around 50% of Pakistan's population or 100 million dead and the rest injured. people in remote areas surviving initialy but dying of radioactive fallout or starvation in the coming months.
India will see 100 million dying,200 million injured and a 50 to 100 million more dying in the following months due to famine,fallout,starvation etc.
Add to this a few million dying in neighbouring countries.
This means Pakistan will be history for sure but india will still have at least 700 to 800 million people!!! And still remain the 2nd most populous nation!! And several 100 large cities still surviving with little to no damage.
Sure the human tragedy will be unparalleled in history but the world will survive.
Also i am sure all nations would completely denuclearize after this episode..

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SWEET: Just hear some of the interesting remarks made yesterday Dr Samar Mubarak Mand of NESCOM regarding the nuclear equation:

And also about the mess created by the Neelum-Jhelum hydro-electric project:

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir, this is the same scientist that talked about the harnessing the power of jin for Pakistan? I am not able to recall his name.

Dushyant hardaha said...

sir has reported that Russian mercenaries
are fighting with NDF in afghanistan
what's yours pov?

blackurrant said...

Prasun Sir,

If you could kindly explain what in the world is going on:

The US does not recognise Indias territorial claims with regard to territorial waters and exclusive economic zone and has been conducting operational challenges to such claims on a regular interval, US Defence Department officials said



Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: Nope, not him. That's another guy, who's depicted here:

How can anyone arriove at a figure of 7.1 metric tonnes of fissile material from only 3 PHWRs that were built in a staggered manner since the mid-1990s & all 3 of which are mandatorily closed from January to April each year for routine maintenance & also to account for the Chinese technicians proceeding on their annual long-leave prior to the Lunar New year celebrations? I had posted a YouTube weblink back in 2013 in which a WAPDA official had confirmed this.

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: That's right. They are Putin's domesticated Chechans who want to take on the rebellious Chechans & the Uzbeks of IMU that have been kicked out by Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan.

To BLACKURRANT: Do you really want to believe such shit emanating from equally shitty websites? Although the US is not a signatory to UNCLOS, it abides by UNCLOS provisions relating to territorial waters & EEZ & always notified the Govt of India whenever its warships are transiting India's EEZ & therefore enjoys freedom of navigation in such waters, just as India enjoys similar freedom within the EEZ of all other countries.

amit said...

sir , i read on FB that delhi govt is planning to introduce a chapter on current dadri lynching in textbooks & teach how kejriwal asshole "doused" the "fire" by his "visionary" stance..

my question is whether delhi govt has any such power to change curriculums ?
if they do this it will be horrible..
& also what do u make of kejriwal's performance as of now ?
q2 ) how & why did bjp lost delhi ?
q3) was it by bjp's own design ?

buddha said...
grt documentry

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT: Goodness Gracious! So now Kejriwal wants to become a prima dona & become the 21st century Mahatma Gandhi! Seems to me that within the AAP there's no dearth of political buffoons-transformed-into visionary revisionists. In my view, the entire National Capital Region (NCR) ought to become a Union Territory under the control of a Lt Gov. For, under the present scheme of things, no state govt in power can successfully run that state when most of the executive powers are in the hands of various Union Cabinet Ministries. Hence, no matter which state govt is in power in Delhi, the result will always be utter chaos & mal-administration. The sooner everyone grasps this commonsensical reality, the better it will be for the residents of the NCR.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To WHAT IF & WISE_ASS: The remarks of Dr Samar Mubarak mand are extremely interesting. Firstly, he confirmed that the Ghaznavi & Shaheen-1 TBMs are meant for use against 6 or 8 IAF air bases facing Pakistan. This therefore means that these TBMs are meant for use as counter-force weapons (and not counter-value, meaning thickly populated cities) for use against Indian ballistic missiles & combat aircraft that would be located within these 8 air bases. Now, does one require 15kT or 20kT nuclear warheads to neutralise each air base? Or will each such TBM have only a 2kT nuclear warhead? If the answer is yes, then does this mean that the Shaheen-1 TBMs have low-yield tactical nuclear warheads of the type (2kT) claimed by the Dr to be on-board the Nasr? Or will the Ghauri-1s, Ghaznavis & Shaheen-1s all be armed with only conventional warheads & be used to offset the PAF's absence of deep-penetration strike aircraft?

Secondly, the Dr states that the Shaheen-3 MRBM has a 2,750km-range to cover the Indian missile launch areas in Chennai (???), Hyderabad (???), Wheeler Island (???) & Andaman & Nicobar islands (???). Again, he talking about a counter-force weapon & not a counter-value weapon. He also seems to have assumed that Wheeler Island is part of the A & N chain of islands. Looks like the PA's MI Directorate & ISI are both clueless about India's geography, & can't distinguish between missile test ranges & actual missile staging areas.

Thirdly, the Dr justifies the usage of the 2kT warhead-armed Nasr on the basis of a scenario that was valid only in the 1980s till the mid-1990s & which was wargamed during EX BRASSTACKS. He's unaware that post-May 1998 the IA renounced its earlier OP-PLAN that called for deep armoured thrusts inside Pakistan in any theatre. Furthermore, he fails to realise that if the Nasr is employed as a first-strike weapon against IA armoured formations deployed inside Indian territory, then the PA's armoured formations in Cholistan & Gujranwala too will be toast through proportional Indian retaliation.

Lastly, no one in Pakistan seems to explain why should that country's armed forces continue to make cost-prohibitive investments in efforts aimed at attaining operational parity at the conventional-level with their Indian counterparts, if nuclear deterrence has already given Pakistan full-spectrum security against any envisaged Indian aggression. The answer, to me, is elementary: Pakistan's conventional military might & its claimed arsenal of TNWs is aimed not at India, but against non-nuclear NTP signatory-countries like Afghanistan & Iran. Obviously, this will be unacceptable to the US, UK, France, Russia & India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Looks like I have the privilege of having the last laugh again! Just as I had predicted last week, the Obama Administration is now asking why the PA planned & executed OP Zarb-e-Azb in such a way so as to allow the entire leadership of the TTP & Haqqani Network escape without a scratch into Afghanistan. Watch this interview with a well-intentioned Pakistani academic from 32.56 onawrds:

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

Looks like things are playing out the way you mentioned above

Best Regards

RIP said...

TNW are a waste of fissile materials. A 1 kt explosion against a tank column will have an effective blast radius of no greater than 0.7 km
If the tank column is spread out with each tank around 50 to 100 m from the other then how much of damage will it really have?
The t72,t90 and bmp2 were designed to fight in a post nuclear war Battle field where the Soviets anticipated TNW from western Europe being hurled at them.
These armoured vehicles protect their crew from nukes at a distance of 350 to 500 m.and also protect against radiation,biological and chemical weapons.
Now another thing is precision of the missile in the absence of GPS and the exact intel on where the indian forces are and at what speed and in what exact direction they are moving.
Now if all this is factored in then how many TNW will be needed to justify this strategy ?
I say nothing less than a 100.
But if so much plutonium is utilized for this then there is nothing much left for high yield strategic weapons.
So the Pakistanis become sitting ducks for the massive Indian retaliation using strategic weapons on its major population centres while india sends its massive reserve force to replace the frontline force
The Pakistanis need to understand that the assymetry between the two nations is so large that no amount of nukes can bring any sort of parity.
Let me put it this way, If the Indians were even half as crazy , greedy and trigger happy as the Pakistanis then Pakistan would have become an Indian colony by now.

buddha said...

bijoyar suvechaa ar pronam neben sir
valo thakun sustha thakun

Gessler said...

Huge thanks for the replies Prasun ji! Check out this news in the meantime -

Enjoy Dussehra!

Anonymous said...

It is not the question of 1 kt or 10 kt. In case of a Pakistani TNW usage against India, that portion of the land will be useless for years to come, like in Chernobyl.

Considering the Pakistani mindset, their intention is how to destroy India, even if they know very well that they are and would be the losers. This mindset is the most insane and the most dangerous. The animosity is the strong hatred towards Indian Hindu population. In that last 60 years Muslims have been living peacefully, except a few incidents, with Hindus in India - against the common lie spread pre-independence . The life of Muslims in India is better than the life of people in Pakistan. So Pakistani establishment will use these TNW even in the beginning of the war, against Indian cities, killing millions of people - irrespective of religion. Even it doesn't mind giving a TNW to a militant organization and saying "one was stolen from our side, it is not our responsibility to track that." This is what I am scared the most.

I really doubt India will use the NW even if it would hit by Pakistani NWs. The world will pressurize India, and Indian leaders are not that insane, either. Looking at this scenario, I am more worried of my generation and the young generation of India.


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI N: You had stated: Even it doesn't mind giving a TNW to a militant organization and saying "one was stolen from our side, it is not our responsibility to track that."


That will never be allowed to happen, since all the fissile materials awaiting reprocessing or storage will have to be transported by land to a fuel reprocessing site by vehicles equipped with real-time tracking devices (monitored by the IAEA in real-time as well) escorted by armed convoys. This arrangement was arrived at & implemented as far back as 2005 itself after a bilateral agreement inked between the US & Pakistan under the IAEA's auspices. This was confirmed in a Pakistani TV debate yesterday & you can view it here:

As for the fissile materials from the 4 unsafeguarded PHWRs at Khushab, rest assured that contrary to Pakistani claims, they are NOT reprocessed anywhere inside Pakistan, but are instead taken out solely by Chinese personnel & are airlifted back to China for reprocessing. Check out any existing imagery from GoogleEarth & you will find that there are no fuel reprocessing plants located in or around Khushab, while the reprocessing plant at PINSTECH Labs is way way too small for reprocessing the spent fuel & obtaining weapons-grade plutonium from the fissile materials burnt from the 4 PHWRs at Khushab.

As to why nuclear non-proliferation ayatollahs like Hans Kristiensen or David Albright ALWAYS fail to note the total absence of fuel reprocessing plants located inside Pakistan, well...your guess is as good as mine & we can only speculate about their real intentions behind their periodic issuance of such incomplete country-reports on nuclear WMD developments.

Kunal Jadhav said...

1) Do india have spent nuclear fuel reprocessing plant ?
2) Will Rafale deal be clinched by end of this year as all offset clause are sorted out according to latest media reports?

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Kunal Here

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RIP & GESSLER: Does anyone really buy all the bullshit emanating from Pakistan that go against all the laws of physics? What is now happening is that the number of countries willing to call Pakistan's bluff is steadily increasing globally. And that's because Pakistan is the world's sole nuclear WMD-armed country that always approaches the IMF with a begging bowl for financial bailouts, & which is engulfed by circular debt crisis in almost every sphere of its economy. Therefore, will such a country ever be allowed to have a survivable, sea-based nuclear 2nd-strike capability? Why would the IMF donor-nations subsidise the Pakistani economy when such a capability poses an undisputed existential threat to countries like Iran & Israel? The same question can also be asked by NPT signatories like Afghanistan & Iran WRT the claimed TNWs at Pakistan's disposal.And like I explained earlier, if the PA wants to use TNWs against the IA somewhere inside PoK, then not only will Pakistan have say goodbye to all its sources of fresh-water supplies, but will also forever lose any moral claim on Kashmir.

In conclusion, therefore, the circus is currently being performed in Washington DC with all kinds of play-acting, but such performances are not attracting any audience from the US. Instead, the Tamashaa's prime audiences are Pakistan's gullible citizens. For it is crystal-clear that killing a few thousand terrorists will never solve the problem, for as long as Pakistan's official educational curriculum for all its schoolchildren prescribes that the Christians, 'Hindus' & Jews are to blame for all the woes afflicting the Muslim Ummah. It is this kind of intolerant hate-literature that will always churn out tens of thousands of terrorists--this being the most graphic & naked example of state-nurtured/stated-mentored/state-sponsored terrorism. No wonder the country's Federal Interior Minister is accompanying Nawaz Sharif in this visit, while the Defence Minister, who was in China (coincidence?) was told to abruptly terminate this visit & head for Washington DC.

Kunal Jadhav said...

thanks @arpit

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KUNAL JADHAV: I can now confirm the following:

1) The first 36 Rafale MMRCAs will be delivered off-the-shelf by Dassault Aviation under a contract to be inked in the very near future this year itself.

2) Dassault has agreed to implement the 50% offsets reqmt AFTER the Govt of India gives a written, irreversible commitment to order more Rafales (up to 189 in all). But this 50% offsets commitment on Dassault's part will be implemented ONLY after follow-on orders for Rafale are placed in successive tranches. For this, Dassault has been granted total autonomy to choose its own team of Indian OEMs that will become vendors to Dassault. Dassault, and not any Indian govt entity will have the final say on the choice of such Indian vendors. It will, of course, include HAL, which is already producing some avionics that are common to both the Rafale & Su-30MKI (Like the Sigma-95N RLG-INS).

3) Of the 50% offsets commitment made by Dassault, only 15% will be implemented as indirect industrial offsets (the Indian MoD refers to them as 'Rainbow Offsets) under the contract for the first 36 Rafales. That means, for instance, if I am the foreign supplier OEM, I can choose whether to invest the 15% offsets value with either an Indian lipsticks manufacturer, or with an Indian potato-chip manufacturer, or an Indian shoe-polish manufacturer. I am no longer obligated to commit my offsets to any MoD-owned DPSU like HAL or BEL or BEML etc etc.

The above constitute the finaslised contours of the draft contract for the first 36 Rafales. So, do have Guinness Stout & chill out during Dusshera.

Kunal Jadhav said...

thank you sir...

Unknown said...

thank you sir...
really wanted some info on rafales.

happy dusshera to you too

Unknown said...

really embarrassing situation for nawaz in US.

Anonymous said...

brainwashed abduls at their best.

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