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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Is It Really CPEC? Or Is It China's Karakoram Corridor That Is Now Unravelling?-1

It was on June 2, 2004 that the US Department of Defense announced that the forthcoming simultaneous deployment of seven aircraft carrier strike groups (CSG) under ‘EX Summer Pulse 04’to demonstrate the US Navy’s ability to provide credible combat power across the globe by operating in five theatres with other US, allied, and coalition military forces. This was to be the US Navy’s first exercise of its new transformational operational construct, the Fleet Response Plan (FRP)—which is about new ways of operating, training, manning, and maintaining the fleet that results in increased force readiness and the ability to provide significant combat power to POTUS in response to a national emergency or crisis—all this being part of the US Navy’s ‘Sea Power 21’ strategy. Beginning in early June and continuing through to August 2004, the US Navy exercised the full range of skills involved in simultaneously deploying and employing its CSGs around the world. The exercise included scheduled deployments, surge operations, joint and international exercises, and other advanced training and port visits. Under the FRP construct, the US Navy is required to provide six CSGs in less than 30 days to support contingency operations around the globe, and two more CSGs can be ready in three months to reinforce or rotate with initially responding forces, to continue presence operations in other parts of the world, or to support military action in another crisis. The seven aircraft carriers involved in the exercise were the Norfolk-based USS George Washington CSG and the San Diego-based USS John C Stennis CSG (both deployed at the outset of the exercise); the Yokosuka-based USS Kitty Hawk; the Mayport-based USS John F Kennedy CSG (which began a combined and joint exercise early in June, followed by a scheduled overseas deployment); the Norfolk-based USS Harry S Truman CSG (which conducted a scheduled training exercise, followed by overseas operations with the Norfolk-based USS Enterprise CSG, beginning in early June); and the USS Ronald Reagan (which conducted operations in the US Northern Command and US Southern Command theatres during the ship’s inter-fleet transfer from Norfolk to its Pacific Fleet homeport of San Diego).
It was this unprecedented, combined show of multinational naval might that provided the spark for China to seriously contemplate the usage of land routes for trade and commerce, instead of relying solely on sea lanes of communications (SLOC). Back in 2004, China's economy was heavily dependent on foreign trade, 90% of which traveled by sea. China's near seas—the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea—are bounded by what Chinese strategists call the ‘First Island Chain’, a series of islands (many of which are controlled by US allies) that stretches from Japan to The Philippines to Indonesia. To reach ports on China’s eastern coast, seaborne trade from the west must now pass through maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca (through which 82% of China’s crude oil imports passed in 2013). Passage through these maritime chokepoints is secured by another country: the US, the world’s dominant naval power. The geographic enclosure of China’s near seas would thus make it relatively easy for an adversary to disrupt or interdict China’s SLOCs. China still faces many challenges in developing its ability to project sufficient naval power to safeguard seaborne trade as it passes through distant chokepoints. Instead, China must rely on the US to provide security of the sea-lanes. Although maritime security is ostensibly a public good, China worries that, as a potential peer competitor to the US, it will not always be able to rely on the US to protect its shipping.
Consequently, back in late 2004, Beijing conceived the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ in order to mitigate the risk of maritime interdiction by constructing transit routes along six land-based economic corridors: 1) The China-Mongolia-Russia corridor, anchored by the Trans-Siberian railway. 2) The New Eurasian Land Bridge, anchored by a set of railways running from central China (Wuhan, Chongqing and Chengdu) to Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus. 3) The China-Central Asia-Western Asia Corridor, passing through Central Asia, Iran and Turkey to reach Europe. 4) The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which would extend the Karakoram Highway, which already crosses the mountains between China and Pakistan, and build highway and rail links all the way through Pakistan to the port of Gwadar. 5) The Indochina Peninsula Corridor. 6) The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor.
In all these corridors, China has since 2005 been enhancing existing transportation networks, constructing new roadways and building intermodal transport hubs and energy pipelines. Two of these corridors, the China-Mongolia-Russia corridor and the New Eurasian Land Bridge, will be entirely overland. They center on existing transcontinental railway lines and mainly focus on delivering relatively high value-added goods, such as consumer electronics, which are sensitive to rapid changes in demand. China will shift a small fraction of its total trade to these routes, providing an outlet for industries in China’s interior and giving the country a measure of insurance against naval interdiction. China will continue investing in port infrastructure along other corridors in the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). However, China will find ways to link land and maritime routes, aiming to bypass the South China Sea chokepoints and minimise the distance of any single maritime leg of Chinese merchant shipping. For example, the CPEC could allow some China-made goods to travel overland to Pakistan before embarking for Africa and the Middle East at Gwadar. And of course, the Belt and Road investments will also serve to build political support for China. 
Crude oil represents almost one-fifth of the China’s energy demand. In the decisive year of 1993, the Middle Eastern and African countries, namely Oman, Yemen and Angola were among China’s most prominent crude oil suppliers. China’s foreign oil supplies from 1993 till 1999 originated between 40% and 61% per in the Middle East, and supplies from Africa accounted for up to 18%. Since 1995, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Angola, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Libya and Congo were among those which have supplied crude oil to China. CNPC had since 1996 invested substantially into Iranian, Nigerian and Sudanese oil fields.  By 2003, Sudan and Iran accounted for almost 7% and 14% of China’s imported crude oil stock,
In 2009 China needed almost 120 million tons to cover its domestic crude oil needs. By 2020, China will become the world’s largest nett importer of crude oil, reaching around 13 million barrels a day of nett oil consumption by 2035, which means nearly 80% of its crude oil consumption will depend on imported oil. In 2013, China overtook the US to become the world’s largest nett importer of crude oil and liquid fuels, and its total oil imports are expected to reach 9.2 mbd by 2020, nearly four times the level of 2005. Meanwhile, Chinese natural gas demand is growing fast, rising 11.4% last year to 163.4 billion cubic metres. China plans to boost the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 10% by 2020, from under 5% in 2010, in order to cut its dependency on coal, which now supplies 70% of its energy needs. Part of this will be met by China’s huge shale gas reserves, although large-scale production of shale gas isn’t expected before late this decade.
Trade between Iran and China soared from US$4 billion in 2003 to more than US$20 billion in 2009. By 2013, it had doubled to US$53 billion. Presently, China accounts for 25% of Iran’s foreign trade. In 2011, approximately 10% of China’s crude oil imports were from Iran. But CNPC’s rapid global expansion into easier operating environments reduced the need for it to push further into Iran. In 2012 China had cancelled a US$4.7 billion project to develop the South Pars gas field. An Iranian decree officially excluding CNPC from the $2.5 billion contract North Azadegan oilfield project’s Phase-2 near the Iraqi border came into force in April 2014. Iran’s oil reserves are one of the largest in the world after Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. The country is also home to 18% of the total natural gas reserves in the world. In the near future, Iran may re-award Phase-2 of the North Azadegan oilfield to China for development. CNPC and Iran’s PEDEC have already signed an initial agreement to produce 25,000 barrels a day from the field. CNPC had earlier also participated in Phase-1 of North Azadegan and had begun production of 75,000 bpd last October. China’s Sinopec Group and CNPC will had begin producing 160,000 bpd barrels from South Azadegan and Yadavaran in southwestern Iran from October 2016. Phase-1 of the Yadavaran oilfield will yield 85,000 bpd. Yadavaran, which Iran shares with Iraq’s Sinbad, was awarded to Sinopec about nine years ago in a US$2 billion deal to operate Phase-1 in July 2014 and raise recovery to 200,000 bpd in Phase-2.
In 2008 CNPC renegotiated a production-sharing contract to develop Iraq’s al-Ahdab oilfield, which it had previously entered into with the Iraqi government during the Saddam Hussein era. The new technical service agreement granted development rights to CNPC for 23 years. A year later, in 2009, CNPC combined with UK-based BP in a consortium that won the rights to develop the Rumaila field and to increase its output from 985,000 bpd to 2.85 million bpd. CNPC also formed a consortium in December 2009 with France’s TOTAL and Malaysia’s PETRONAS to successfully bid for the Halfaya field. The consortium’s plateau production target is 535,000 bpd. The Halfaya oilfield has estimated reserves of 4.1 billion barrels of oil. In May 2010 China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC) acquired a stake in the Maysan oilfields along the Iraq–Iran border. Chinese companies have secured a significant foothold in the Iraqi upstream sector, with investments in roughly 20% of Iraqi oilfield projects. They have also signed deals that more than double Iraqi exports of crude oil to China, a process that started in 2013 as Baghdad lowered its export prices. In April 2014 CNPC gained its first upstream stake in the United Arab Emirates through a deal with its Emirati counterpart, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). The deal is Abu Dhabi’s first concession deal with China, and highlights the UAE’s shift away from traditional Western international oil companies to Asian partners.
All in all, the Communist Party of China has constructed or invested in energy projects in more than 50 countries to date. This enabled Beijing to import approximately 60% of its crude oil supply in 2014 as well as about 32% of its natural gas supply. In 2011, China imported almost 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, of which almost 50% came from the Middle East, and 20% came from Russia. In addition, China’s imported crude oil from Africa totaled 1.23 mbd, which accounted for about 20% of China’s total imported crude oil. Presently, China imports at least 52% of its crude oil from the Middle East. Approximately 43% of this has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while 82% of all Chinese oil imports and 34% of LNG imports must pass through the Strait of Malacca. In order to minimise its dependence on SLOCs transiting through the Malacca Strait, China in June 2010 zeroed in on Myanmar for solutions. 
In late January 2015, Beijing opened a pipeline linking southwestern Yunnan to Maday Island, east of the coastal city of Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, and also began operationalising an oil tank farm accommodating 12 storage tanks. China National Petroleum Corp’s (CNPC) Huanqiu Contracting and Engineering Corp subsidiary built the 12 tanks, each with a capacity of 100,000 cu m. Total storage capacity is thus 1.2 million cu m, or about 7.6 million barrels. Maday Island, just 10 sq km in area with almost no other infrastructure, is also the origin point for both a crude oil pipeline for carrying 440,000 barrels per day, and a natural gas pipeline intended to ship 12 billion cu m annually to China’s land-locked southwestern province of Yunnan. The oil pipeline, costing US$2.45 billion to build—with US$1.20 billion coming from Myanmar and US$1.24 billion from China—starts in Maday, enters China at Ruili in western Yunnan province, then heads to Chongqing. It runs for 771km in Myanmar and 1,631km in China.  This 2,400km-long pipeline is bringing bring 23 million tons of Middle Eastern and African oil into China every year. In 2010, CNPC’s Yunnan branch started work on an oil refinery project in Kunming, designed to handle more than 10 million tons per year. The natural gas pipeline became operational in late September 2013. It brings gas from Myanmar’s offshore Shwe fields off the coast of Rakhine, a western state bordering Bangladesh, to Yunnan province. Myanmar has proven natural gas reserves of 2,540 billion cubic metres and crude oil reserves of 3.2 billion barrels. These two pipeline have saved 30% of delivery time, since the distance the crude oil and LNG from the Middle East and Africa has to travel by sea has been cut by 2,000km.
To Be Concluded

210 comments:

1 – 200 of 210   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

idrw.org/deal-yes-but-a-good-deal/#more-84746
Prasun sir,

There are some points in this article which supports your theory that india is negotiating some big ticket deals with french in order to get their militarised nuclear reactors for indian navy's single hull SSNs

Kshitij

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Make no mistake! The back-to-back visits to the Middle East, first by the Pak PM & the PA’s COAS to Riyadh & Teheran, followed by China’s President Xi Jinping’s official visits to Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran, are inter-connected. Riyadh had last week warned Islamabad that fence-sitting will no longer be acceptable: either join the 34-member Saudi-led military alliance against ISIS & terrorism, or pay the price whose centrepiece will be the deportation of expatriate Pakistanis now employed throughout the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). ‘Boots on the Ground’ is what the KSA & UAE are insisting upon. For the PA, this logically should not be a problem, since it claims that it is a declared nuclear weapons-state & is therefore well-protected against any kind of conventional threat that Iran may pose to Pakistan (since the alleged neutron-based TNWs of the PA can easily be used on the sandy wastes of the Sistan-Baluchistan area, if required, for self-defence). And yet, Pakistan is extremely fearful about the prospect of another round of ‘proxy’ Sunni-Shia sectarian wars being waged on its soil by the Saudis & Iranians. So now comes another crunch: Pakistan has to finally admit that its WMD assets are meant only for use in self-defence--meaning they cannot be used to provide any other country with a nuclear WMD umbrella--& these WMDs cannot be used against any other Islamic country, especially Iran. And who has drawn such red-lines? China of course, since it is Beijing that has the final say on the employment of all nuclear WMDs in Pakistan’s custody. And it is to drive home this very point that President Xi is undertaking his forthcoming Middle East yatra. In other words, Pakistan-based nuclear WMDs are meant for national self-defence, & can never be employed as Islamic WMDs. Both Riyadh & Abu Dhabi, however, will not lose any sweat on such a revelation, since they have already in place an understanding with Israel (that’s right, Jewish nuclear WMDs & their delivery platforms providing the nuclear umbrella for the GCC member-states, should the need ever arise). The next 24 hours will therefore be extremely crucial for all these to unravel in bits and pieces. Iran clearly has by now emerged as the chess grandmaster of the region & will not cede an inch to Pakistan, rest assured, especially after wall-chockings on ISIS have made their arrival in Shia-dominant Gilgit-Baltistan.

Cont’d below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Meanwhile, China has issued an ultimatum to Pakistan to forge political consensus on the CPEC’s implementation & also determine the legal status of Gilgit-Baltistan once & for all, latest by June this year. China wants to complete the Gwadar-to-Kasghar road-link latest by 2018 & has put unrelenting pressure on Islamabad to come to an agreeable settlement with India on the J & K issue by then. While the PA is in favour of goarding India into resuming from where the Musharraf-MMS back-channel parleys ended in 2007, the civilian politicians in Islamabad arte loathe to do is because, due to their prevailing feudal societal mindsets, retribution is uppermost in their minds & they therefore will be the last ones to give any credit to either Musharraf or the PA for resolving the J & K issue. So what then do these feudal politicians decide to do? They have, without consulting the Muzaffarabad-based AJK Govt, have decided to appoint an Election Commissioner of their choice for AJK (PoK). This has since been contested by the AJK Govt & the High Court of AJK has declared Islamabad’s appointee as being unacceptable. The AJK Govt evenm filed a case in Pakistan’s Supreme Court, which has since ruled in the AJK Govt’s favour. The PMLN’s plan is to use its own Election Commissioner appointee to organise some form of referendum within the whole of PoK that produces a result that’s overwhelmingly in favour of a quasi accession to Pakistan & also in overwhelming favour of implementation of the CPEC in Gilgit-Baltistan.

This has not gone unnoticed in India, and all newspapers published from Jammu & Srinagar yesterday highlighted & analysed these upcoming events. Needless to say, the game is getting more & more interesting by the day!

Will reply to all outstanding queries from the previous thread later tonight.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KSHITIJ: VMT. Knew about it 18 months ago, when serious negotiations on this issue began with Paris. That's why the Indian NSA was in Paris last week (& he reportedly stopped in Dubai for a brief meeting with his Pakistani counterpart) to tie-up the remaining loose ends. For all intents & purposes, the IN's SSN procurement programme is on firm ground now & it may well be joint industrial programme involving MDL & L & T.

Gessler said...

Still waiting for Pakistan's nukes to be grabbed or destroyed by a Coalition of the Willing :D

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,


Do you believe in Illuminati. I heard the whole world is controlled by Illuminati. Is it true or just hype.

Please comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Jon said...

Najam Sethi's take on Saudi Pak and recent Indo Pak issues:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l02LtOQsNbk

Watch from 12.10 onwards

Unknown said...

Dear Prasun Sir,

Anil Ambani is making a lot of noise after his recent acquisition of Pipavav Defense. Is there any chance that the Indian Govt will trust him as a reliable partner for India's defense needs?

Thank you,
Piyush

DAshu said...

- This has not gone unnoticed in India, and all newspapers published from Jammu & Srinagar yesterday highlighted & analysed these upcoming events. Needless to say, the game is getting more & more interesting by the day!-

But it is a fact that China being strongly standing beside PAK , India hardly have any choice here now ,especially after seeing the determination from Chinese side to complete the project.

Anonymous said...

Prasun do you mean to say that the policy statement by Pakistan FS in New York, "that all their nukes are india specific only", is incorrect?
That would be an eye opener in all the capitals of the world.

rad

Sakshi said...

when everyone is playing their part, what is India doing?
will India ever get Gilgit and Baltistan into India's fold?
(I didn't read MMS-Musharaf deal, so I dont know to whom this G & B goes with?) Isn't it foolish if we loose G & B to pak, as it connects us to Afghans and Central Asian countries and also disconnects China to pakis?

Sakshi said...

so that implies china provided pak with these things SOLELY to use against India?
Does the world accept such a referendum in POK as in general elections itself they send election observers?

sbm said...

Prasun, given the fact that your views are often the most balanced, why not consider a piece on India's nuclear deterrent capability - missiles/warheads etc ? Censored of course.

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Will the Rafale deal happen or not

In the last two, three days we have again seen news about the COST escalation

What the hell is going on

Rajesh Mishra said...

What if the Shia take over the Pakistan. How that will affect the Indo-Pak relations and the so-called Kashmir problem.

Anonymous said...

Sir, please share your views on this.

http://www.idsa.in/askanexpert/what-are-lsa,-cismoa-and-beca-agreements

Do you think the govt will sign these agreements? Is it beneficial to India in any way?

Thanks,
Sravanth

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: Don’t worry. There’s still plenty of time. Remember what the RM said about results emerging after 1 year. By 2018, all the remaining Mi-17V-5s will be delivered by KHP of Russia, while the LW-155/M-777s will also start arriving, as will the follow-on 6 C-130J-30s. Also, six of the IAF’s existing IL-76MDs will be refurbished & upgraded into IL-78MKI aerial refuelling tankers, giving the IAF a total of 12 IL-78MKIs.

To SENTHIL KUMAR. LoLz! No, I don’t believe in this conspiracy theory, rest assured.

To JON: VMT. But the far more important issue on hand concerns the last State of the Union address of POTUS, in which he predicted that countries like Afghanistan & Pakistan will suffer from a few more decades of instability. That is what needs to be analysed. Do watch & listen to this analysis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tljaWPVgWI

To UNKNOWN/PIYUSH: Such noises will emanate from anyone who wants to increase his company’s shareholder value. All he has done so far is inked various MoUs with foreign OEMs for various projects, & NOT a single contract. Therefore, his soundbytes are not worthy of much attention.

To DASHU: Things aren’t exactly what they seem to be on the surface. Kindly wait for the remainder of the narrative to be uploaded above over the next 2 days & you will get the big picture.

To RAD: Of course the statement is totally incorrect & illogical. That’s why everyone always plans strategies based not on intent, but on capabilities. After all, there isn’t a target recognition algorithm in existence that can enable the so-called Hatf-9/Nasr TNW to distinguish between an Indian target or an Iranian target or an Afghan target, is there? And why was the subject of Pakistan’s TNWs subjected to much publicity at a time when negotiations between Iran & the US, China, Russia & EU poised at a delicate stage? Pakistan knows only too well that even if its TNWs are used in self-defence within its own territory against any Indian military formation, retaliation from India will be swift & proportional. But does Pakistan really possess TNWs? Or is it just bluffing? I believe the latter is the case, since India 3 years ago decided against acquiring TNWs & that’s why the Prahaar NLOS-BSM & the Shaurya TBM were never fully weaponised, & were left as just technology demonstrators.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SAKSHI: Not quite. Pakistan lost all moral claim to any portion of J & K or even PoK after December 1971, when East Pakistan chose to be born again as Bangladesh. And that’s precisely why no UN resolution on J & K was ever adopted by the UN after 1966. Today no one believes that Pakistan offers the best deal for any Muslim human being. Facts (on unemployment, sectarian strife & deviant strands of religiosity being propagated) speak for themselves about the pathetic living conditions of the vast majority of Pakistanis.

To SBM: VMT, but (LoLz!) censored? What for? There’s plenty of serious, discerning reading materials available in the open domain, written by authoritative retired senior officials of the IA, IN & IAF. Only material on the command-and-control systems isn’t yet in the public domain.

To VIJAY: All rumours. There’s no issue with either unit acquisition-price escalation or programme cost escalation. That issue was settled long ago when the IAF decided to base the first Rafale sqn in Gwalior, & not in Ambala.

To RAJESH MISHRA: How could that happen? It will never happen in a country where the ruling elite hail from the Sunni strand of faith & which constitutes 75% of Pakistanis. Far better for the Shias & Ahmadiyas to embrace & be part of India within a reunited J & K state. That is their surest way to survive & prosper with dignity & self-respect.

To SRAVANTH: Any logical person won’t find anything objectionable in such foundational agreements. Only persons donning ideological blinkers & being totally unaware of national security imperatives (like AKA, the previous RM) will desist from inking such agreements.

Gessler said...

Prasun ji,

How do you believe the India-Afghanistan-Iran equation will develop as Pakistan makes it clearer each day that they are a Saudi stooge? Not that Iran was unaware of this all these decades, but the lifting of trade sanctions + renewed Shina-Sunni strife adds a new perspective. We should stand to get a lot out of this equation.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: It's already happening. Look at the red-lines imposed by Afghanistan this time for the peace talks:

http://www.voanews.com/content/afghanistan-wants-red-lines-in-peace-process/3150794.html

Then there's the Chah Bahr port development by India in Iran. In fact, even China is now talking about re-aligning its gas pipeline from Iran via Turkmenistan into Xinjiang! In other words, the IP pipeline is a dead-end as will be the TAPI pipeline. If a US President names Afghanistan & Pakistan & predicts that these 2 countries will be victims of decades more of instability, then do you think any foreign investor in his/her right mind will ever bother to bring in FDI into such countries? For all intents & purposes therefore, Obama through his last state-of-the-union speech has ensured that no FDI goes into Pakistan, period!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Good news:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Isros-PSLV-C31-places-IRNSS-1E-satellite-in-orbit/articleshow/50648970.cms

Two more to go!

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your Reply.

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160120/1033410832/russia-iran-training-iranian-astronaut.html

1. After sanction, do you think that Iran will emerge as another Asian Tiger?

http://sputniknews.com/military/20160120/1033411451/south-korea-tank-cost.html

2. What is happening between South Korea-US Military nexus. Looks most of the joint ventures are coming to End?

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160120/1033404151/israel-supports-kurdistan.html

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160120/1033406188/kurdish-forces-bulldoze-arab-homes.html

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20150824/1026145611.html

3. Do you think Kurdistan (Part of Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Iran) is going to
Happen?


Please comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.dawn.com/news/1233996

http://www.arabnews.com/featured/news/867386

Looks like Pakistan is hell-bent to bring both Saudi and Iran for Peaceful negotiation and Settlement.

Do you think in today's scenario it is possible?

Please Comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Jon said...

More interesting analysis from Najam Sethi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcdUCi00ZT4

Anonymous said...

http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/01/19/pakistan-is-the-winner-in-saudi-iran-rift/

interesting take on the shuttle diplomacy

SMK

SATYAM said...

Hi Prasun,

There were a few questions asked in your previous thread. Will you answer them here Please.

Thanks for your effort.

ASSAD said...

12 IL78MKI sir but what about the A330 MRTT?? We selected it years ago but still not contract!!!

Anonymous said...

TNW are a reality according to USA. It is now upto India to call the bluff, will Modiji do it? What surprised india was that these TNW turned out to be NEUTRON warheads. No one expected this from Pakistan. There is chatter, where did pakistan get this technology? Only Israel is supposed to have operationalised this technology. Did they pass this tech to Pakistan?

rad

Arpit Kanodia said...

@rad I have a anti matter bomb, now question this who supplied this tech. to me?

Aliens?

Arpit Kanodia said...

@rad No rad, I asked u a logical question, how u know I don't have Anti Matter bomb?

Or are u performing somekind of Schrödinger's Cat experiment here? Or creating something like mother of all Kanspiracy theory.

Firstly, u don't even have proof of neutron bomb, second u even don't have proofs about Israeli involvement in Pakistan who was in 80s trying to bomb Pakistani nuclear facilities.

So next time use ur brain, and plz be more creative in abusing.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. you say 'Also, six of the IAF’s existing IL-76MDs will be refurbished & upgraded into IL-78MKI aerial refuelling tankers, giving the IAF a total of 12 IL-78MKIs.' if you remember i had said long back that IAF should use IL76 as medium transport jets or tankers. but doesnt it mean A330 tanker deal is dead, IMHO 6 A330 tankers must be procured than IAF/IN/IA all will have their own tanker fleet based on numbers needed, your view

2. Recently i had a chat with a chap from a CAPF he corroborated what AS Dulat has said about giving the separatist money, but he also said the KP migration in 1990 was the result of culmination of the wrongdoings by the KPs for decades, your view

3. He also said in nuclear overhang short war with Pak may happen but will be in Indias favor ultimately but India wont dare take on China in next 2 decades even if China pricks India on Tibet issue, your views

4. Ajai Shukla says Kamove helo deal is not Make In India unless HAL stikes deal with all OEMs, do you expect that to happen quickly
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2016/01/make-in-india-challenge-for-kamov.html

5. Ajai Shukla says CCP has now decided to permanently monitor Tibetans, why no super power even utters a word
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2016/01/intrusive-chinese-surveillance-grid-to.html

awaiting your replies

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Joy said...

Hi Prasun,

1) What is the status of project 17A. When can we expect the first ship to be launched ?
2) When will the GE F414 arrive in india ? they were supposed to arrive last september.
3) Is the LCA Mk2 project stopped ? I've heard the project team's funds were all diverted to Mk1A. What about Navy Mk2 ?

Thanks

ISI13 said...

nice maps sir. CPEC would allow china to use gwader to trade with ME, North Africa, east africa and souther europe and potentially west europe as well. Its a very clever move on the part of chinese.

Rajesh Mishra said...

The militants of Pakistan who are converting their Universities in to Khuniversities, do they not have the capacity to capture the few TNW's from Paki arsenals.

financeblogger said...

IN THE FOLLOWING VIDEO
IRAN OPTED FOR SHARIA IN 1979 AND REALISED THE CONSEQUENCES AND HAVE SOMETHING TO FALL BACK UPON, BUT PAKISTAN AND SOMALIA DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING TO FALL BACK UPON.
SEVERAL ISLAMIC COUNTRIES ON THE VERGE OF BREAK UP.
CANANDIAN PRIME MINISTERS STATEMENT ON ISMALICISM RILED THE ISLAMISTS ORGANISATIONS.

THIS FOLLOWING VIDEO IS A MUST SEE FOR EVERBODY AS NOT EVERYTHING CANNOT BE SAID IN WORDS.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKv2CRreXI4

financeblogger said...

THE ABOVE VIDEO IS A DISCUSSION BETWEEN TAREK FATAH AND AYAAN HIRSI ALI,
RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING TILL THE END, EVERY MINUTE OF IT IS ENGROSSING, WORTH LISTENING AND LEARNING.

PRASUN YOUR TAKE ON THE DISCUSSION IS VERY MUCH AWAITED.

Raheel Shareef said...

Dear Prasun K SenGupta

After the Pathankot attack there have been Three Bomb blasts and
Today there has been a terrorist attack on Peshawar University

All in a space of Twenty Days

Does it look like Payback

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUMANTA & ALL OTHERS: Always take RAW13's observations with a fist-full of salt, because he can;t distinguish between religious piety & religiosity. No need to engage in meaningless debates on such issues with him as they're an insult to any discerning person's intelligence.

To RAHEEL SHAREEF: Payback, yes, but not by or for India. This is payback for all of the PA's duplicity in FATA from 2008 till 2014 when both the Govt of Pakistan & the PA lied to their own citizens about the US drone strikes that killed thousands of innocent civilians. On one hand the Pak authorities were condemning such drone strikes, while behind-the-scenes they were colluding with the US & facilitating such drone strikes. Therefore, the enraged residents of FAT have every right to seek vengeance, because their state never ensured their protection & violated their fundamental rights. Bottomline: one reaps only what one sows.

To ISI13: On the surface, that's how it looks. But your observations will change once I've finished uploading the remainder of the narrative, rest assured.

To JOY: 1) Keel-laying ceremony for the 1st P-17A FFG hasn't taken place as yet. 2) F414-GE-IN56 turbofans started arriving in India last June. 3) Work hasn't been stopped. Low-key design activity is still taking place.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) No,, A330-200 MRTTs will still be acquired since they're MRTTs. IL-78MKI isn't an MRTT. 2) Alsolute baloney. KP migration was a forced one, thanks to instructions given by the ISI to the Kashmiri militants to resort to communal cleansing. 3) India's politico-military campaign for getting back Gilgit-Baltistan will be one exactly like what was done with East Pakistan in 1971, meaning the military campaign will be mounted only in response to a humanitarian disaster unfolding in Gilgit-Baltistan & when, consequently, international sympathy will be overwhelmingly in favour of India. China cannot prick India anywhere along the LAC. The moment it even tries to do so, India will play the Taiwan card. Already India has since 2011 stopped endorsing the One China policy in all her official statements & now with Japan firmly committed to forge deep economic ties with India, it is a given that South Korea & Taiwan too will follow suit & in fact have already begun to do so in India. Therefore, India does not need any FDI from China nor does India want to export minerals like iron ore to China. This is the real mother of all gamechangers in South Asia & China will henceforth be made to pay a very heavy financial price for its past misdeeds, especially the blatant off-the-shelf supply of nuclear WMDs to Pakistan, i.e. it will have to reap what it had earlier sown. 4) Nothing can happen quickly unless HAL becomes an autonomous corporate entity. You cannot expect swift results when the HAL Management Board has to seek approval for even the tiniest decision from a Joint Secretary of the MoD who in turn will procrastinate due to the overhang of the Central Vigilance Commission & needless nitpicking from the Union MoF.

Joy said...

Hi,

continuing from my previous comment:

Great that F414 engines started arriving. So what about TVC ? is it already incorporated into them or ada has not yet started the tvc design process ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: No one from the US govet has ever issued any official statement confirming that Pakistan has TNWs of any kind. Nor was any TNW's warhead ever tested in late May 1998 by Pakistan.

To SATYAM: Yes, I will, rest assured.

To ASSAD: Need of the hour are additional AAR tankers, not MRTTs.

To SENTHIL KUMAR: How can Pakistan play any meaningful role in mediation between Iran & KSA when Sunni Pakistan is viewed by Iran as being a biased party? Furthermore, what kind of leverage does Pakistan enjoy over Iran & KSA? ZILCH! Because Pakistan is an economic/financial basket case, unlike India which has vibrant trading links with both the GCC member-states & Iran. Furthermore, India today is the biggest single consumer of Iranian light sweet crude. Not a single barrel of such crude goes to Pakistan. Furthermore, secular India has no bias towards either Sunni or Shia factions & is therefore viewed by all in the Middle East as a neutral & evenhanded partner & therefore it is India that is far better placed to act as a mediator if reqd. Why else do you think both the Israelis & Saudis chose to go to India to hold their secret parleys over the past 3 years?

As for the future of Iran's economy, do read this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/georges-ugeux/historic-weekend-in-tehra_b_9013432.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592&ir=India&adsSiteOverride=in

To SMK: Interesting? Total hogwash! By first going to Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has clearly been seen to have taken Riyadh's side. Nor has Pakistan made any official announcement of rejuvenating the IP gas pipeline project. In fact, Pakistan has already decided to import LNG from Qatar & the LNG offloading terminals have already been built in Karachi. Nawaz Sharif's so-called meeting with President Rouhani in Teheran lasted for a mere 20 minutes, i.e. just a courtesy call. Obviously the Iranians are not too happy about ISIS-related graffiti & stone-chalkings appearing in places like Gilgit-Baltistan, Punjab & Sindh. And what can Islamabad do to assuage Teheran's apprehensions? ZILCH! So, how exactly Pakistan emerges as a nett gainer from such shuttle diplomacy exercises defies anyone's imagination, with the sole exception of that of the likes of M K Bhadrakumar!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOY: Why should ADA design the TVC? ADA is not in possession of any engine design-related IPR related to either the F404 or the F414. It therefore can't even unscrew a single nut-and-bolt from any F414 or even the F404. Nor is ADA consequently qualified to undertake the design of any TVC nozzle. Such TVC nozzles will therefore have to be imported & imported solutions are available from both GE as well as Eurojet.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: Jo jaisa karega, woh waisa bharega (one reaps only what one sows). Yehi toh hai prakriti ka niyam (this is the law of nature). Yeh akpa ya mera niyam nahin hai (these are not your or my laws).

R. Sarath Kumar said...

Hi Mr. Prasun...there are some rumors out there about US pressurizing India to buy the F-35C JSF and E-2D Hawkeyes as a package deal with EMALS for IAC-2. Is this true?

What plane is IN likely to get for IAC-2? Rafale-M or F-35C?

Even if we get EMALS on IAC-2, exactly what level of technological autonomy will we have with the system? Will these be made in India or just imported off the shelf? Is US involvement in IAC-2 going to be limited to EMALS or will they be helping with ship design & N-reactor technology as well?

VMT in advance,
Sarath Kumar R.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

Recently there have been quite a few programs/discussion on Indian TV channels concerning Balochistan. Is this part of some plan towards liberating Balochistan?

Best Regards
Raj

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your reply.

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160120/1033404151/israel-supports-kurdistan.html

Kurdistan is great trump card for Israel, US & West to break the Middle East. By doing this they can break the Turkish hegemony and redraw the ME Map.

Do you think Kurdistan (Part of Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Iran) is going to
Happen?

Please Comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To R SARATH KUMAR: No one pressurizing anyone, rest assured. As far as carrier-based MMRCA goes, the Rafale will be the obvious choice. As far as F-35 JSF goes, it will end up as a white elephant for India unless India signs up for the foundational agreements like CISMOA. That’s why one has to date seen only those countries ordering F-35s that are alliance partners of the US through formal mutual defence treaties. The F-35 being a network-centric MRCA platform cannot be exploited to its full warfighting potential unless it functions in a network-centric warfighting environment & thus far India has taken just a few baby-steps to develop warfighting tactics using network-centric warfare concepts.

To RAJ: Not quite, but there’s genuine concern about large-scale Baloch unrest being unleashed like never before PURELY DUE to the way in which the CPEC concept is being marketed in an over-hyped manner. For instance, Pakistani officials have claimed that Gwadar Port City will eventually end up hosting a population of 2 million. Consequently, the native Baloch are now asking if this is just another way of colonising Balochistan & altering the province’s demography, which could make the Balochis a minority community in their own native land.

To SENTHIL KUMAR: That can only happen if Iran & Iraq too are willing to part with their lands that currently host Kurdish settlements. Will all 3 countries therefore surrender such lands for the sake of an independent Kurdistan? Most unlikely.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Latest report from the US Congressional Research Service on Pakistan's nuclear WMD arsenal & WMD-related activities:

http://fas.org:8080/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34248.pdf

hoods said...

hey prasun

Lot's of rumors going around the net about JF-17 absence from Bahrain air show,any inside scoop from your side.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your reply.

As per your reply if independent Kurdistan is unlikely means, the core issues is not going to settle any time soon. Already Iraq Kurds & Syrian Kurds start feeling their freedom and independent from the central control. Syria will be fractured into three provinces like Iraq. One Alwaite/Shia, two Sunni Syria and third Kurds Syria. Already connection started between Syrian Kurds & Iraq Kurds.

Most Analyst are saying that Kurds issue is in the hands of Turkey. If turkey mishandled the kurds issues, no power can stop Kurdistan. Moreover US & Israel are with the Kurds.

Do you agree for the above opinion. And you had promised two months back you will give your thoughts & opinion about Current & future Syrian Crisis.


Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Few would imagine the recent speech by POTUS would prove to be so prophetic. The latest terror-attack in Peshawar was carried out by folks aged only 14 & 15. More & more folks in Pakistan are asking how come the POTUS can make such grim predictions about Pakistan when the PA’s COAS has boastfully claimed that 2016 will be the year of elimination of terrorism from Pakistan. Folks are also asking why on one hand Pakistan publicly claims that it has stopped differentiating between ‘good’ & ‘bad’ Taliban, while on the other the very same Pakistan offers to facilitate negotiations between the Taliban & Kabul, i.e. portraying the Afghan Taliban as the ‘good guys’. Why this blatant duplicity?

Also being asked are:

why was Mullah Fazlullah safely escorted out of Swat to Kunar by the ISI in 2007 when the PA was battling the TTP in Swat Valley?;

why has the PA so far not released any photos of the 3,800 terrorists that it claims have been eliminated so far under OP Zarb-e-Azb?;

why do Pakistanis have to always hear the truth about Pakistani terrorism from foreigners (like the US & India), instead of such information being shared by Pakistani authorities?

why are Pakistani schoolchildren being made to sing songs that use words like ‘Dushman’ (enemy)?;

why are their societal mindsets being conditioned in this manner?;

how come Pakistan can muster the funds for procuring F-16s, but cannot mobilise any funds for reconstruction/rehabilitation activities in FATA where tribal dwellings have been levelled since 2007 by pulverising air-strikes & field artillery fire-assaults?;

why is the PA’s threat perceptions along the 783km-long LoC higher than the 2,400km-long undemarcated AfPak frontier through which some 25,000 folks go & come across without undergoing any border-immigration-related procedures & processings?

Cont’d below…

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Here are a few more pointers about the mammoth global mess that Pakistan is today:

61 fatalities so far in 2016 due to terror-strikes.

498 suicide bombings have taken place since 2001, but none of them have been profiled as yet.

14 lakh suspected terrorists have been questioned & investigated over the past 12 months as part of combing operations. Of these, 12.5 lakh hail from Punjab province.

Total of 1 lakh people have been arrested, of which 40,000 hail from Punjab & 49,000 from KPK province.

332 convicts have been executed over the past 12 months, of which 301 hailed from Punjab.

Of the 830 hard-core ‘jet-black’ terrorists, 829 have been arrested in Punjab.

Of the 1,730 terrorists captured so far, of which 946 were apprehended in Sindh province.

Under Protection of Pakistan Act (POPA), there are 84 cases of which 82 are from Punjab, & of the 22 cases whose trials are on-going, 7 are from Punjab.

For curbing hate-speeches, 2,200 people have been arrested of which 1,900 hail from Punjab.

9,300 people have been arrested for flouting regulations related to loudspeakers, of which 6,500 hail from Punjab.

Rs.104 billion has been confiscated so far from money launderers using hawala/hundi channels for terror-funding,

6,500 actionable intelligence-based inputs have been received to date, while 1,588 telephone calls from informants have been logged so far. On the basis of this, 437 counter-terror operations have been carried out.

The NACTA has been given Rs.2 billion to become operational & it has already spent Rs.1.6 billion. Headed by a DG, NACTA is presently staffed by 69 personnel. Provincial offices of NACTA are operational in Punjab, KPK & Balochistan. It is the coordinating body for collating, processing & disseminating information emanating from 26 intelligence & law-enforcement agencies.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To HOODS: Simple reason is that marketing funds for the FC-1/JF-17 come from China's CATIC/AVIC, & not from PAC Kamra. That's why you will always see CATIC/AVIC officials giving press breifings & marketing presentations on the FC-1, with the PAF & PAC Kamra providing only the JF-17 aircraft for flying demos & aerobatics. No one from PAC Kamra or the PAF is authorised to open their mouths & offer marketing soundbytes of any kind.

And since Bahrain is not regarded by CATIC/AVIC as a serious potential customer for the FC-1, why then bother to spend money on ferrying the PAF's JF-17s to Manama? That's the elementary answer.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SENTHIL KUMAR: Matters are not that black-and-white. Even Turkey supports the Kurds from time to time. All the post-war reconstruction boom inside northern Iraq where the Kurds have administrative autonomy there were undertaken by Turkish companies. All the skyscrapers & shopping malls were built by Turkish property developers & they also have business partnerships with the Kurds.

raw13 said...

@Prasun,
I am simply giving you how we see things.Your views are tainted with your indian made tinted glasses and thought process and dont represent us in any way.
wrt to the congressional report, I am expecting you to send them a rebuttal considering what you have been preaching for a while, that Pak only have 10 nukes, under chinese control. That we still dont have a reprocessing plant. That there are only 10 delivery mechanisms again under chinese control. That there are no TNW.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

thanks for the detailed answers except for the one on tibet no issues

BTW

That Rafale M will be chosen was for flying on INS Vishal it gives rise to a few more querries

1. How many Rafale M will fly from INS Vishal, all 50 or just 40 with 10 Mig 29Ks (IMHO all 50 should be Rafale M allowing maintenance ease leaving Mig 29Ks for INS Vikramaditya with few from land) considering you have said 1k ton per aircraft + 10k ton+ for other things

2. Ultimately total Rafale count (IAF/IN) will touch 250 ? or more?

3. Wont it be a good idea to have a IAF version of P8I

4. i always wondered what happened to the huge stockpie of sophisticated weapons sized from across India during various insurgencies, any idea ?

5. any chance of a theater command in Lakswadeep, NorthEast or J&K (IMHO these will be great idea)

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your reply.


http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2016/0120/Turkey-in-conflict-How-Kurds-gains-in-Syria-have-pushed-both-sides-to-dig-in
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/01/turkish-academics-pay-price-speaking-out-kurds
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/turkey-isis-kurds-1.3408372

Turkey under Erdogan wants to crush PKK completely. His action is polarizing the whole turkey which leads to later greater war. 25% of Turkey is Kurds.

Israel & Russia is already waiting to squeeze the turkey. Already saudi 34-Sunni Alliance vs Iran Shiites is gaining momentum. In all aspects, Kurds are gaining day by day. Even if there is no official Kurdistan there will a Unofficial Kurdistan which have full control on oil Money and with their own government without Central Control. Today Kurds are 4 Crores people.

Indirectly Shites & other minorites are also with Kurds. Kurds are Sunni but they are not Arabs or Turks. So @ the end there will be no Holy Alliance with them for ever.

In my view, there is going to be Independent Kurdistan.. But the question is when and How.... Time & Events in ME will decide.



Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Jay said...

@Prasun&Senthil

I'm afraid not.Turkey is virulently opposed to Rojava/PYD and they consider
it and its military wing YPG same people as PKK in different uniform and organically
connected to Turkey's own restive Kurds.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rojava

What Turkey is comfortable with is semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan KRG which co-operates
with Turkey and sell oil to it..and is hostile to PYD/PKK and sometimes even fights with it.

Anonymous said...

Dear Jay & Prasun,

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160120/1033398443/goel-turkey-kurds.html

http://news.antiwar.com/2016/01/20/report-turkish-troops-enter-syria-to-stop-kurdish-advance/

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_turkey-objects-to-syrian-kurds-attending-geneva-peace-talks_410121.html

http://www.voanews.com/content/amnesty-calls-turkeys-campaign-against-kurds-collective-punishment/3155683.html

Sure. Something is happening with Turkey - Kurds fight. Turkey - Kurds rivalry is more than India - Paki rivalry.

Now Syrian war is moving to next direction. May be Russia will join with Kurds and squeeze turkey.


Thanks
Senthil Kumar

dushyant hardaha said...

sir
do think india will face kashmir like situation in WB kerala UP
due change in demography extreme minority appeasement(for Vote bank)
what's yours pov?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: My views??? LOLz! Well, in that case enjoy listening to what the views in Pakistan are from Pakistanis themselves:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3ng1bo_hamid-mir-telling-inside-story-of-bacha-khan-university-attack_news

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHOLTwnbfAo&hd=1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GiPMmBWe-I&hd=1

And I did send a rebuttal to the CRS yesterday itself.

John said...

Hi Prasun,

1) Do you think ADA/HAL do the first flight of LCA Mk2 in 2019-20 ?

2) FYI, there have been reports that MDL has given order to SAIL for steel for Project 17A & that the project will most likely start from next year.

3) Why are taking consultancy from UK,Italy,Russia in building 65000 ton IAC-2 when only France & US are the ones who operate CATOBAR 60000+ ton carriers & others use small carriers

John said...

Continuing from previous comment,

Why is Defence Minister giving sound bytes about Tejas going to full production next year when they'll mostly graduate to producing 8 next year & 16 after that.

Vijay said...

Dear Prasun Sir

You have said that CATIC pulled out of BIAS instead of PAF

But The Pakis are very sad after the Success of LCA in Baharin Air show
and they are feeling Betrayed by PAF and CATIC

The Pakis are realising that LCA Tejas is Much better than JF 17

But Some body should tell them that with

"The bitterness of poor quality is remembered
long after the sweetness of low price has faded from memory.”

Sanchun Yaton said...

Dear Prasun,

Any update about how and how far the Pakistani nuclear weapons stock has been "secured" by China and/or the US?
How much credible do you assess an IS-threat scenario over these weapons?

IS is cleverly taking root in Libya trying to extend its influence along the huge Libya/Nigeria axle. Which could be explosive. They seem to be able to impose a governing scheme stronger than the typical clanic scheme. Do you think they coult take root in Af/Pak as well with the same success?
If not, what could make you think that it would be more difficult for them in AfPak than in Libya/Niger/Nigeria?

All the best,

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,
I wonder why there are shrill statements coming from Pakistan every since the Pathankot attack especially from Pervez Musharraf and his ilk; is it the case of right screws being turned on by Indian policy makers or it is Pakistani politicians playing to their gallery.

Thanks,
Ganesh

john said...

Hi

US, Russia, China and Iran are testing their weapons in actual war condition in Afganistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, etc.... and perfecting it.

Even India can test our weapons under the pretext of fighting terrorism. What stops us from giving DRDO developed weapons to Syrian, Afgan and Iraqi government forces at discount rate or free to assess it's perormance.

Magicbullet said...

Dada , you one true clairvoyant. Again one more of ur prediction coming true.....this time about the impending cabinet reshuffle...but beats me..parrikar was spoken of as a breath of fresh air ..now how would jaitely be better...

Anonymous said...

Something big is going on, your thoughts?

http://www.dawn.com/news/1234571/russian-team-holds-talks-on-sale-of-military-hardware

After the kick in the teeth of PAF over the F-16's are they about to jump on the SU35? if they do what it means for IAF?

SunilG

Magicbullet said...

Dada , you one true clairvoyant. Again one more of ur prediction coming true.....this time about the impending cabinet reshuffle...but beats me..parrikar was spoken of as a breath of fresh air ..now how would jaitely be better...

sarajones said...

The Chinese model has outlived its usefulness. Within a decade or two 3D printing tech is going to take over manufacturing. Cheap labor wont be an advantage. only consumption driven economies will succeed. Countries which produce the software needed to 3D print products will have the advantage.
The Oil Boom of the 20th century has gone bust and there is no way its going to boom again. Solar is just too cheap to ignore now and its gonna get even cheaper. So the Middle East has a horrible future ahead. Except Iran and Turkey i do not see any other islamic nation succeeding.
China will try to grow fast but it will be impossible. A 4%-5% growth rate is likely. But this might create political unrest coz an entire generation of chinese in their 20s and 30s have lived with 10%+ growth rates all their lives. India will become 3rd largest economy in the coming decade but job creation looks difficult at just 7% growth which india can realistically sustain long term.
All in all it seems the US will be the single most powerful nation at least in the 1st half of the 21st century.

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/army-planning-to-share-fighting-concepts-to-generate-combat-solutions-from-private-industries/articleshow/50675892.cms

after this i feel pvt co will be able to develop better weapons that IA wants and not do mistake like Kalyani (arty gun) or Tata (armoured vehicles) and others

btw

still awaiting the answers of previous querries

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

raw13 said...

Just saw the Tejas air display in Bahrain on the link below. Very impressive, especially the way it seems to keep energy through the turns. Looks good too. Cannot see IAF's issues with it. Its way better than the mig-21's/23/27 and Jags in your force. After this display the likes of Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal if offered wont say no. Question will be if USA will allow their engine to be exported.

http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?120949-Tejas-Mk1-and-Mk2-thread/page49

raw13 said...

I don't get why all of you boys are so worried by the CPEC. Be positive, I can see it being used by India to link with CA, China and Iran. It will create lots of employment here in Pak.

Arpit Kanodia said...

@raw13 You vowed to be illogical or something else?

If that is the case & India can use CPEC or even the existing Pakistani pathetic road network, then India never required to build Chahbahar & fund NSTC in first place.

The Pakistan refused to provide the land route because of larger than life two nation theory in previous decades, thats why these projects become economically & strategically viable.


And right now CPEC is nothing but just 2 lane road network (right now), hell even Dedicated Freight Corridor is actually 5 times larger than this.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) IAC-2’s design is still in the conceptual stages & therefore its on-board complement of combat aircraft & helicopters cannot be estimated as of now. 2) Can’t be confirmed as yet. 3) What for? Why should the IAF do MR & ASW? 4) They’re refurbished & recycled if they have any life left in them, or they’re sent for scrapping. 5) Not reqd as of now.

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: Just as a Kashmiri becomes a minority when travelling to any other state, I too will be in a minority if going to Maharashtra. Similarly a Maharashtrian will be in a minority in Kerala, as will a Malayali in Odisha. From a pan-India standpoint, therefore, everyone in India is in a minority in one way or another without any exceptions. Therefore, no need to go any deeper & end up getting totally confused.

To JOHN: 1) 2018 looks unlikely, More towards 2020. 2) Even Essar Steel has been roped in for some initial supplies, since ESSAR had earlier supplied steel for IAC-1/Vikrant. 3) That is for various packages, & not for the entire carrier design.

To SANCHUN YATON: It’s all been explained in detail in the book THE CHINA PAKISTAN AXIS by Andrew Small. In that he explains very clearly how China maintains a very short & tight leash on Pakistan’s nuclear WMDs. IS is an Arab-led & Arab-driven monolith that will thrive only those areas with Arabic population centres. The non-Arabas are just foot-soldiers for hire, i.e. mercenaries. The battlegrounds of ISIS will therefore be in the Middle East & North Africa only.

To JOHN: What stops us? It’s the ideological blinkers that puts a stop to such ideas. It has been beautifully explained by Salman Khrushid in his book THE OTHER SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN in which he has described an incident about Afghanistan asking India for heavy weapons in early 2013. Khurshid, who was then the Foreign Minister, told Karzai that this was against India’s longstanding policy. But when Khurshid mentioned this to Dr MMS, the latter admonished him by saying that India neither had any such a restrictive policy nor any such red-lines! What this means is the Khurshid had his ideological blinkers on & therefore had ASSUMED that India never exported nor would export any major weapons platforms to anyone, this despite the Indian Army clearly informing the PMO that it had several hundred spare T-55 tanks that could be supplied to Afghanistan.

To SUNILG: That’s about after-sales support for Mi-17s & some small-arms sales. Nothing big or major.

To RAW13: LoLz! Thanks but no thanks, because NONE of those flying demos can be of any use in dissimilar air combat. That’s why they are called aerial aerobatics, & not air combat manoeuvres.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GANESH: Such statements are coming because the civil society of Pakistan has at last mustered the guts to speak up against the decades-old duplicity of the PA. Average discerning Pakistanis are fed up about living in a state of denial & blaming everyone else in the world except the PA for all the losses of innocent lives. Did you know that all cellphone network services are suspended in Islamabad every Friday for 2 hours from 12pm till 2pm so that the Khutbas from Laal Masjid don’t get dessiminated? Here’s one example of an ex-ISI Brigadier who too feels it’s time to come out with the truth:

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world/pakistanis-say-time-for-tough-questions-instead-of-blaming-india/story-egDoRczZuPVtFY20VdQpWL.html

Two days ago & yesterday, there were protest demonstrations in Karachi & Islamabad where citizens were chanting “Dehshatgardi ke peeche hai wardi”, meaning behind the terror acts are men in uniform. This is unprecedented, since speaking against Pakistan’s Army & Judiciary is a cognizable offence & folks can be charged with sedition. And yet people are willing to come out in the open & take on the PA! Yesterday evening, Farhatullah Babar, the brother of the late Lt Gen Nasrullah Babar, openly came out & admitted that the PA still wanted to colonise Afghanistan & had therefore never given up nurturing & mentoring the ‘sarkari’ jihadis. Watch it for yourself here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PZDFb2jkk0&hd=1

People in Pakistan are also now realising that although the PA has undertaken kinetic operations against the TTP, these have been selective in nature & the Army is preventing the civilian politicians from introducing changes in the educational curriculum that will result in transformed societal; mindsets. Consequently, acts of terror due to sectarianism & religious intolerance will only increase inside Pakistan in future. It’s all explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecvfX5koL0M

And now that the military LIC operations throughout FATA have stoked the flames of insurgency, it will take at least 30 years for this insurgency to be eliminated. So, if LIC operations began in 2004, it means the PA will be bogged down in COIN operations till 2034, a pretty bleak picture. All this is now coming out in the open, & the PA has realised that its denial-based propaganda is no longer working, & that’s why the DG of ISPR 2 days ago lost his cool & used the term ‘Bastards’ when referring to the TTP terrorists. You can watch the press-conference here:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3nh5vs_breakthrough-achieved-in-identifying-charsadda-attackers-dg-ispr-lt-gen-asim-bajwa-press-conference_auto

More & more Pakistanis are therefore in favour of completely sealing the Af-Pak border, which in turn means ZERO trade & commerce with Afghanistan via Pakistan, meaning no TAPI pipeline & no western corridor of CPEC, period.

raw13 said...

you like stretching the truth here and there....or is it the indian tinted glasses that allow no light ;-)

here is what is really going on:

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/92859-Fighting-terrorism-more-DHAs-more-metros

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAW13: LoLz! Well, here's something from DEEP INSIDE Pakistan:

http://nation.com.pk/blogs/20-Jan-2016/charsadda-attack-it-is-about-time-we-asked-the-army-some-hard-questions

Read it, then gulp in a Patiala peg, for this will prevent you from drowning in your sorrows.

Ved said...

Hi Prasun,
Are levcons only meant for naval Tejas?
Who will arm Tejas with derby and python5? Indian Navy or Airforce?

raw13 said...

@Prasun,

its along the same lines as the one I posted. Just shows you how free our media is and how introspective we are. We pakistani's are growing as a nation, looking at our future with eyes wide open. What is Patiala peg?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VED: Not anymore. LEVCONS will be standard feature in the IAF's LCA Mk1 version as well. Both IAF & IN have opted for Derby/Python-5 combo.

To RAW13: LoLz! Eyes wide open, maybe yes, but what do the eyes see? That's what matters in the end. Right now, viewed from Pakistani optics, it goes something like 27 Indian consulates inside Afghanistan to 19 to 16 to 9, depending on who one asks. A simple check with the Afghan Foreign Ministry or any other foreign diplomatic mission mission in Kabul will reveal the actual number, i.e. 4.

Patiala Peg? Pray, Google it up.

Anonymous said...

Sir, thanks for the reply.

Another query. Please share your views.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-djibouti-china-idUSKCN0UZ0VO

Does this mean China is trying to connect through Gwadar to Djibouti for trade.

Sravanth

Ved said...

Thanks Prasun for clarity.
If navy is ordering Tejas with GE 414INS6 engines then why did IAF order 100 Tejas with GE 404IN20 engines? I fail to understand.

Anonymous said...

Prasun da, disappointed by ur comemnts that tejas is an airshow aircraft. You join the IAF cheif who said it was mig-21++,shame on you both. It is at least 4.5+ gen, with asea.

vishakh said...

Hi

"LEVCONS will be standard feature in the IAF's LCA Mk1" --> Is it 100 odd Tejas MK1A which IAF is planning to buy ?? or MK2 which is expected in 2019 ??

What is advantage for IAF version wth LEVCON ?? will it increase AOA or High Speed performance??

Santosh Kumar Sharma said...

I don't know how my question got deleted, reposting it again.

Hi Prasun question on engines:

Right since independence india has signed various TOT agreements for combat aircrafts like: Toofani, Mig-21, Gnat, Jaguar, Mig-27, Su-30, Hawk aircrafts. If i remember correctly we signed TOT and assembled engines for Gnat, Mig-21, Su-30, Jaguar.

1) Which was the most comprehensive agreement regarding technology transferred for engines specifically and absorbed among all the deals?

2) In my last query you mentioned that even for Mig-21s engine we didn't seek complete technology from the Russian side for Hot end components. Was this because, it was not offered, or not proposed because of high cost?

3)For engine development we can go through 2 routes: one develop the physics and engineering totally from our side (This will be costly and time consuming). Second take an existing one and complete technology transfer where even IPR rights belong to us even for high temperature components (I am not sure if anyone would do for its top-of the line stuff, but definitely for some not the best of line engine). Second plan would also be costly, but give us a possible starting point to further develop it. Why the GOI has not tried the second plan? Any thoughts?

4) Is GTRE planning to purchase any aircraft for testing like the IL-76 from russian side?

Thanks and answer when you have time.
Regards,
Santosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAT: LoLz! Speaking of Ambala & Patiala pegs, the last time I was in Kabul late last year, I had a long chat with a former Mujahideen commander (now warlord) who had a reputation for dry sarcasm when talking to the PA's instructors in Peshawar in the 1980s. He frequently used to ask this: how can someone from the Pakistan Army--which has never won a war against its enemy--ever teach warfighting to the Afghans who have never lost a war to their enemies?

Gopu said...

Hope the Chinese reap what they sow, playing their little games with Pakistan. I hope CPEC will increase 1 way tourism to China -- Jihadi's dream vacation to Xinjiang. Lol.

GuruDev said...

VERY INTERESTING,
Pakistan army being criticized on LIVE news-

hear are the exerpts-

https://youtu.be/lCT58Xcne4c

hears the full discussion -

https://youtu.be/8RX2Azhpstc

Anonymous said...

Sir, as per this journalist Alan Warnes the IAF is very much impressed with JF-17.

https://twitter.com/warnesyworld/status/690267739269763073

Is this true?

Thanks,
Sravanth

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRAVANTH: Nope. Both are meant to serve as logistics assistance facilities where fuel & perishable commodities are stockpiled in advance. A base on the other hand houses armaments storage depots, MRO facilities etc, which won’t be in Gwadar or Djibouti.

Impressed by the JF-17, yes, but not to the extent of going ga-ga over it from a weaponisation standpoint.

To VED: Only about 40 F404-GE-IN20 turbofans were ordered & delivered, not 100.

To Anon@10.08PM: There is nothing to prove so far that the Tejas Mk.1 is an operational combat platform. Not even its Martin Baker ejection seat mechanism has been tested so far from the rocket-sled, nor has the cockpit canopy severance system, leave alone weapons integration & weapons firing qualification. If you believe all this to be untrue, then I’m afraid you’re living in dreamland.

To VISHAKH: Attainment of high AoA.

To SANTOSH KUMAR SHARMA: All these so-called ToTs never involved critical components for either the airframe or engine. Till today, all polycarbonate-made cockpit canopy transparencies are imported, for instance. What’s the use of localising production of any aircraft if the cockpit transparencies aren’t part of the package? How will the cockpit aircrew be able to look out if the canopy transparencies turn yellow & opaque after a few years? Similarly, there was never any agreement to undertake 100% localised production of engines with either imported raw materials or indigenously sourced raw materials. The reason: prohibitively high costs. What must be borne in mi9nd is that to achieve economies of scale, one must first churn out engines for commercial aircraft because the order volumes are very high. This then subsidises the R & D costs of military engines. Similarly, the same engine manufacturer is reqd to produce not just one family of engines, but a diverse family for civil & military aircraft, civil & military helicopters, various types of PGMs & strategic cruise missiles, UAVs as well as marine industrial gas-turbines for warships & gas-turbines for platforms like MBTs. ONLY AFTER such a holistic product development approach is undertaken will it become financially viable, both from an R & D standpoint & a production-engineering standpoint. Do I see this happening in India? No, not yet. For instance, the HTFE-25 turbofan is now being toured for use only by some fuzzy AJT for which no operational reqmt exists. Instead, what should be tried out is the development of a turbofan-powered version of the Saras (i.e. transform it into a business jet) & also a HALE-UAV & both these platforms should use the HTFE-25. But for alkl this to happen, there needs to be an ‘umbrella military-industrial vision’ on a top=down basis among the country’s civilian & military deciosion-makers, which presently is missing.

To GOPU: They already are! Witness the growing internal instability, increasing number of worker layoffs & a proportional increase in industrial unrest. All this has led to the country’s internal security budget outstripping its annual defence spending bill—indicators that are symptomatic of an internally sick country. And if Beijing in further acts of desperation tries to further devalue its currency, this in turn will put all the ASEAN economies in further trouble & they in turn will get angrier with China. The only ones in a position to stave off such a crisis is the combine of Japan-Taiwan-ROK-India. China indeed has very tough times ahead.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GURUDEV, GESSLER & MAGICBULLET: Here’s another one along similar lines:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8WbLYi4CBo

Within less than an hour of the attacks, the ISPR was texting SMS messages to all local journalists & alleging that the terrorists had been paid 30 lakhs by the Indian Consulate in Jalalabad. However, the ISPR totally goofed up by failing to mention the currency denomination: Indian Rs, or Pakistani Rs, or Afghani, or US$. And the stupid news-reporters consequently gave their own spins to such inspired rumours. Actually, what they mean by ‘proxy war’ is India’s continuing economic assistance to Afghanistan. The more stable & stronger Afghanistan gets, the greater its bargaining power vis-à-vis Pakistan. That’s why Kabul today can tell Islamabad to buzz off by stating: if you have your good & bad Talibans, we too deserve the right to have our own good & bad Talibans. And poor Islamabad has no counter-narrative. In the coming days, more such revelations will come out that will totally exposes the ineptitude of the Pakistan Army’s LIC campaigns throughout FATA, i.e. how the PA failed to first seal off the border in the opening stages of the LIC campaign. In any COIN campaign, the first step is always to seal off the exit routes, before launching internal cleansing operations. But the casualty-weary PA was averse to this idea. If this is the PA’s mindset, then it won’t be able to stand up to the Indian Army in any conventional warfare scenario even for the next 10,000 years! So what’s next? In the coming days, in order to maintain a brave face despite such fuck-ups, the PA can be expected to try 2 things.

Scenario-1: Seal off the Afpak border by fencing it & mining it, which will further alienate the Pakistani Pashtuns who have relatives staying in Afghanistan. This will also put an end to all cross-border trade & also the TAPI pipeline & the mych hyped-about CPEC’s western corridor. Land-locked Afghanistan will in turn to India & Iran for help & that’s when the real; value of Chah Bahr port will emerge. Iran will be too happy to oblige since India’s is now Iran’s & Iraq’s biggest oil-importing customer. Pakistan enjoys no such economic leverage over Iran.

Scenario-2: A desperate PA before the end of this year bullies Afghanistan by threatening to use its TNWs in Kunar & Nuristan provinces for destroying the TTP’s sanctuaries. Kabul in turn goes to the UN Security Council for intervention. The US, UK, France, Russia & India collectively take advantage of this & issue an ultimatum to Pakistan to surrender its nuclear WMDs & permanently denuclearize. If Pakistan fails to do so, then a multinational AirLand invasion of Pakistan will begin with the help of air & land corridors being provided by India & Iran. China won’t intervene due to overwhelming international pressure & consensus on this issue. The IA & IAF will simultaneously undertake a ‘humanitarian intervention’ & retrieve Gilgit-Baltistan & reunify the state of J & K. And the Holy Prophet’s prophecy about China coming to the aid of India will thus be proven to be true after all. This also now explains why RM Parrikar is talking about ‘matters being sorted out over the coming 12 months’.

Magicbullet said...

Sirji..charansparch and ameen..

Rajesh Mishra said...

"This also now explains why RM Parrikar is talking about ‘matters being sorted out over the coming 12 months’."

Thanx to you and Ameen.

A.Patel said...

prasunji,

I am an old man now, a NRI. I have been hearing Pakistan will disintegrate in 6 months, 1 year, 5 years for the last 6 decades or so. Why do our leader keep doing this?

2 years ago we did not think this China investment will come in, its all MOU's we said. Today when I watch and read (including your article) all I see is developmnt going on whilst they are in the middle of a war. China is a major stakeholder now, please see articles below.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1032716/accord-with-china-deal-inked-on-funding-gwadar-master-plan-study/

If I were to be bold I would say China is taking over Gwadar, it will build it up like Hong Kong with tight security and sell the flats back to Pakistani and make money. They will have leverage and will have made our enemy much stronger. It time to think differently. I would very much like to hear from you what realistic options do you think we have and how we can implement them and in what time frame.

Anonymous said...

they are not blaming india or anyone but man they are quick,

http://www.dawn.com/news/1234917/facilitators-behind-bku-attack-revealed-after-dg-isprs-press-conference

this shows that they have really enhanced monitoring capabilities

Magicbullet said...

Sir , now we have the pig and the bear rubbing their noses in the mountains and kamov too seems to be faltering..the shift from vodka to fine wines seem to be on the way..more than what they showing in press...JMT

SOUBHAGYA said...

Dear Prasun,

Earlier you had told that Tejas can't land with full load of weapons (in case they are not used). What is the progress in this regard??? Is it achieving that goal???

Rajesh Mishra said...

They are quick because they know each other well.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MAGICBULLET & RAJESH MISHRA: VMT. But my scenarios are not prophecies or predictions, rather they are mere probability-based calculations & inferences based on cold-hearted & cool-headed analysis of prevailing ground realities, & the mindset of the adversary, which is now getting way too predictable. Here’s an example of that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVREE4gfUHk&hd=1

Now they’re all groping in the dark about what should be Pakistan’s over-arching national narrative in order to achieve national unity. They’re all failing to realise that when a country’s army launches LIC operations against its own citizens, & especially tribals who are uneducated, who have been condemned to subsist as anthropological preserves for the past 67 years, & who not been integrated into the national mainstream as civilised human beings, such tribal folk will always be seeking revenge through generational blood-feuds. They lost some 600 of their own children due to US drone-strikes since 2004 & they will therefore now rest until they’ve killed 600 children in Pakistan’s urban areas.

This is Allah’s way of seeking vengeance for all the bloodletting that the PA indulged in within J & K in the first half of the 1990s, which led to the exodus of Kashmiri Pandits from the Kashmir Valley. And I have full faith in Allah to do justice & exact payback on India’s behalf. Ameen!

To SOUBHAGYA: Kindly be specific. What do you mean by Tejas? Is it the Mk.1 for the IAF? That version of the Tejas will be used only for training purposes & it will never become an operational war machine. Until the IAF-specific version of the LCA (Navy) Mk.1 appears in prototype form, weapons qualification trials won’t be possible. And until this is done, CEMILAC won’t be able to issue any certification of airworthiness for this version of the LCA & until that happens, the IAF version of the LCA (Navy) Mk.1 cannot be declared as an operational weaponised MRCA. It’s all a step-by-step process & there are no shortcuts. The sequencing of milestone attainment has to be followed, no matter what kind of fancy aerobatics are demonstrated anywhere or at any event by existing Tejas Mk.1s.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANON@9.12PM: Are you kidding? Are you really that dumb? Firstly, in this digital era, how much time does it take to trace cellphone calls by triangulating the sources of transmission from various cell-towers? It can be done in less than 1 hour. Secondly, gathering biometric data from the dead terrorists & cross-checking this with NADRA’s database can be done within 2 hours & if they’re locals, then their next of kith-n-kin can easily be traced as well. So this is not extraordinary by any chance. As for enhanced monitoring capabilities, you’re way off the mark. Just read how really stupid the HUMINT is, especially within the ISI:

In the first week of January 2000, Masood Azhar resurfaced in a Karachi mosque and addressed thousands of people who had gathered there. Surrounded by some two dozen men dressed in camouflage-style uniforms and brandishing automatic rifles, he triumphantly declared that he would not rest until he had destroyed America and India. Watching that spectacle, I remembered calling a senior official in Islamabad expressing my concern over his public appearance and his inflammatory speech. A few minutes later, the official called back with a message from the then ISI chief that I was ‘hallucinating’ and that it must be a recorded speech. One is not sure if the country’s top spymaster could be so clueless.
Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1234101/the-demon-we-created

Furthermore, why does the ISPR hold such press conferences? Isn’t there an elected state govt in KPK province? Doesn’t it have a Home Minister & its own law enforcement agencies? Why can’t they brief the press corps? By taking the lead in such events, the ISPR is openly & blatantly subverting the state govt’s administrative writ & is saying to the world that Pakistan’s civilian agencies & authorities are all good-for-nothing. As for blaming or not blaming India, anyone with even average IQ will realise that it takes at least 1.5 months to plan such an attack & at least a fortnight to do target recce. Thus, the planning & funding process began way back in early December or late November last year & therefore this cannot be any form of India-financed retaliatory terror-attack to seek revenge for the Pathankot terror-strike, or to protest against the Indian PM’s visit to Lahore on December 25. But to expect such reasoning from the average Pakistani is too much to ask for & hence all their moronic observations & comments in that country’s social media.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To A PATEL: Even though you may have aged & are old, I hope you remain ever-young in your heart. Inj the eyes of Pakistanis, the country is already disintegrating. If US$200 billion can be laundered out of that country over the past 5 years, if there’s no escape from all kinds of perpetual debts, if the power-shortages prevail until 2022, & if the educational system is now at a stage where it is producing radicalized university graduates who are yearning to join ISIS, it all can only mean that there is no binding national narrative for Pakistan to survive as a cohesive & united country, leave alone a nation or nation-state. It will be foolhardy to presume that China is today’s Pakistan’s main & sole stakeholder. Had it been so, then the IMF, WB & ADB would have stopped issuing loans to Pakistan by now. That hasn’t happened. Yes, China has decided to invest, but the story ends there: these are all private business entities willing to build infrastructure on a BOT basis, but PROVIDED Pakistan govt provides sovereign guarantees for repaying the loans extended by China’s financial institutions. Consequently, financial liabilitires are not being incurred by Pakistan’s private-sector, but by all taxpayers of that country. As for Gwadar becoming another HKSAR or Dubai, that’s pure hogwash since Gwadar will neither become a duty-free trading zone, nor will it part of a country that promotes free trade or has an economy that is FDI-driven. At most, therefore, Gwadar port will become a transshipment terminal, housing warehouses stuffed with Chinese manufactured products destined for Africa & to some extent, the Middle East & that too if all-weather connectivity is assured between Kashgar & Gilgit-Baltistan, which is an impossibility due to the extremely unstable seismic conditions prevailing along ther Karakoram mountain range. It is for this reason that the Karakoram pass was NEVER the most favoured route when entering undivided western India since ancient times. There are a total of 7 passes in this mountain range & those further westwards & closer to the Wakhan Corridor have always been the most used. It will all become evident to you (as will the ‘masterplan’ for developing Gwadar) in the concluding section of my narrative above, which will be uploaded in the near future.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The cat is finally out of the bag! China has now officially stated that it cannot implement portions of the CPEC in a disputed area, i.e. Gilgit-Baltistan. Further complicating matters are all the legal mistakes made by Pakistan between 1949 till to date. It is all revealed & explained in great detail here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RTBX1859gOs&hd=1

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Russia-Pak Love
---------------
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1032847/russian-army-to-hold-first-mountain-drills-with-pakistan-in-2016/

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1032164/pakistan-russia-hold-talks-on-sale-of-military-hardware/

Why Russia's sudden love affair with Pak?



Houbara bustard bird Diplomacy
------------------------------
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1032913/pakistani-diplomat-hails-lifting-of-ban-on-houbara-bustard/

Poor birds Sacrifices their life for Paki's Gulf Influence & Money.

Please give your Comments.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SENTHIL KUMAR: These will be just bilateral counter-terror exercises of the kind held between China & India every year. Nothing to be perturbed about.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA & MAGICBULLET: There a 3rd scenario--the most probable one--and that is also most likely to take place by the year's end. It goes like this: if popular pressure mounts on the PA to undertake offensive operations (as sanctioned by UNSC Resolution 1267) inside Afghanistan, especially in those 3 Afghan provinces housing the TTP cadres, then this will be the perfect excuse for the Indian Army, backed up by the IAF, to launch a similar limited expeditionary operation across both the LoC & that part of the IB which Pakistan refers to as the WB. Such an operation, lasting not more than 7 days, will then likely see the IA occupying dominating heights in 3 to 4 different portions of the LoC, including capturing for good the Haji Pir Pass. In addition, a combined air-mobile/air-assault operation, backed up by mechanised manoeuvre warfare elements based in the Jammu-Pathankot corridor will possibly undertake operations aimed at permanently capturing territory , especially the Chicken's Neck area. Therefore, the area between Chhamb & Sialkot will be the most likely battlefield for such a limited-objective, high-intensity AirLand warfare campaign.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji,

You views on Af-Pak & options for India were really informative. Moreover video link you mentioned about Gilgit was full of information which I think very few possess.

As French President is in India, I have query that Isn't possible to combine present & future requirement of Rafale with AMCA & SSN project along with some tech share on neUron drone so that India can leverage best of out of these deals.


Warm Regards,
Pawan

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://idrw.org/a-sharif-dance-to-the-tune-of-the-saudis-india-needs-to-be-wary-of-the-nawaz-raheel-tango/

Finally looks like Paki decided to join 34-Sunni Alliance. "Beggars don’t have the Choice" - Proverb comes true in Paki case.


As per the above article, if paki decided to join Saudi team what will be the reaction from Iran. What are the positive & Negative things for Pakistan and India.

Please comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasunji,

I am a regular visitor to your blog and like the insightful, interesting articles you have penned very much.

I am intrigued as to what happened to Netaji Subhash Bose and the mystery surrounding his "death" and why congress was afraid and monitoring his family while publicly celebrating 23rd January.

It would be very nice if you could shed some light and maybe an article of your take on the mystery surrounding one of the greatest freedom fighters of India.

Thanks and regards

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.aljazeerah.info/Opinion%20Editorials/2016/January/22%20o/Turkey%20vs%20ISIS,%20Where's%20the%20New%20Caliphate%20Now,%20Part%20II%20By%20Eric%20Walberg.htm

http://dissidentvoice.org/2016/01/turkey-vs-isis-wheres-the-new-caliphate-now/


Please check the above link. Looks like Israel is playing heavily in Syrian Conflict using Kurdistan Card.

Post Assad Syria will drag to WIII.

Please Comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

A.Patel said...

Prasunji,

In the 60-70's period most (west)Pakistani were not nationalistic at all. But they were always religious and ready to support islamic causes. One of my best friend is a Sindhi. He would collect money for the independence movement. Today when you talk to him, why did it not happen. Main reason is the inter-mixing of various ethnic groups there. The main groups there are Sindhi, Balouch, IM and Pathans. Basically what you have is a small Pakistan there. Not only that, with cross marriages, you have the same happening at family level.

Today his children have done the same and if he says otherwise, they tell him, Islam allows it. His children will display Pakistani flags on their cars. Another interesting story he told me, up until the 90's speaking urdu in interior Sindh was not advised. Today if you don't speak it, you are looked down. He is not bitter because all children in Sindh are taught Sindhi as a language but no one wants to speak it. This indicates a more cohesive society. You think Islam will weaken them, I don't see how.

Thank you and good bye.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To A PATEL: Every religious faith is an universal brotherhood & therefore cannot be confined to & be straitjacketed within the territorial confines of any modern-day nation-state. One of the first to realise this was the great Kamal Ataturk. In reality, therefore, any state founded on the principal of religious theocracy will always be fragmented by various strands of religiosity, or Islamism in the case of Pakistan. And that precisely is the reason why that's country's Council of Islamic Ideology has till this day been unable to come up with an over-arching definition of who & how one becomes a Good Muslim & who/how one does not.`If Islam was being practised in Pakistan then that country would not have had separate territorial boundaries or frontiers with its Muslim neighbours like Iran or Afghanistan, since no religion specifies adherence to territorial boundaries. But ISLAMISM does. One therefore needs to clearly distinguish between Islam & Islamism.

pm said...

Sir what is your opinion about developing MAKITA alliance?

Arh93 said...

Sir (1)what is going to be the range of Tejas-MK1A aesa radar? (2)How many Barak-8/MR-SAM batteries IA AAD is going to induct? (3)Also why not merge both IAF & IA sam squ,regiments together for an unified air defence core?(4) IN high altitude Himalayan region can tejas-mk1 perform CAS role effectively?

R. Sarath Kumar said...

Hello sir, thank you so much for answering my queries. However given what I've been hearing on some forums, I can't help but ask the following questions;

1) What will we build after IAC-1 Vikrant is finished & handed over to Navy sometime around 2018? It appears the IAC-2 design won't be finalized till 2025 atleast - wouldn't that mean that the technical skills accumulated in building IAC-1 be gradually lost over the years? So some people are pushing for the idea that we need to build a second ship of the Vikrant-class until IAC-2 design is ready. But this one possibly flying off Rafale-Ms (French have said Rafale can operate from STOBAR without any modification). Do you support this idea?

2) Exactly how many aircraft carriers is the IN aiming for? Some people say 2 Vikrant-class and 2 IAC-2 type nuclear carriers will be made. Others say it's best to go for 4 IAC2 types, for sake future-proofing. Either way we are getting the talk for a 5-6 carrier Navy. Is this what IN is aiming for?

Ofcourse the surface combatant numbers will also have to increased - but I think there is already some movement on that? Additional P-17As and P-15Bs?

3) How many of the "S-5" SSBNs are we planning for? Three or Five?

This is the submarine that's supposed to carry 12 SLBM silos and displace around 20,000-tons, right? I think news about this submarine-class was first broken on your blog.

4) Is it possible that we go for a maximum of 18 SSNs? Or somewhere between 12 and 18?

VMT in advance, sir!
Sarath Kumar R.

Rajesh Mishra said...

If India really manages to muster 126 or more of Rafale, then will it not be that the need of Tejas Mk2 will go on receding correspondingly. In that case can they go for developing the AMCA under brighter perspectives.

joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

complete history of tanks on the week magazine

http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/100-years-of-the-tank.html

http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/armoured-corps-continues-to-attract-the-best-talent-of-the-army.html

http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/general-george-s-patton.html

http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/lieutenant-general-percy-hobart.html

http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/braveheart-at-basantar.html

http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/major-general-israel-tal.html

http://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/field-marshal-erwin-rommel.html

all these talk about how the tanks have evolved in usefulness in last 100 ys. how they helped us win zozila/asal uttar/basantar but what intrigues me is still the questions raised about Arjun tank. Interesting to know small contribution of bangalore in development of tanks :-)

what i understand that in future tanks will be heavy but main concern is how agile or effective a tank can be.

your views

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Himanshu Ghuraiya said...

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/India-has-given-fresh-evidence-on-Pathankot-attack-Nawaz-Sharif/articleshow/50708785.cms

What is this happening Dada..

buddha said...

http://idrw.org/faster-than-missiles-russia-developing-space-age-fighter-jet/#more-85080
sir ur opinion on the report

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.arabnews.com/featured/news/870191

What is happening in Saudi-Pak alliance?

Please comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

Gopu said...

Do you think the Mig-35 will be developed before 2025? On one hand the Russian economy is in shambles, but at the same time the Mig-35 has a high commonality with the Mig-29K. In fact, I heard someone say that the Mig-35 is just an avionics upgrade of the Mig-29K but I'm not sure of that.

Ujjwal said...

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/india-france-ink-rs-60000-crore-rafale-deal/

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

Which countries are partnering West Bengal for the Smart Cities project? For example France is the partner nation for Nagpur, Puducherry and Chandigarh.

Thanks

Siddharth said...

Prasun Da,

Why only MoU signed for the Rafale. Seems Rafale saga not going to end very soon.

Common Sense said...

I seriously think Modi has painted India into a corner by opting for a reworked Rafale deal. He should have continued with the ongoing negotiations for 126 jets or junked the whole deal and sole sourced from a new vendor: Saab or Eurofighter or anyone else. By opting to continue with the same vendor, Modi has shot India in the foot.

My two anna paisa worth rant!

PIYUSH DAS said...

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2016/01/indian-russian-negotiators-agree-on.html

Indian, Russian negotiators agree on FGFA development: Cost of project reduced to $4 billion each ...


IS IT TRUE SIR ?
IF TRUE THEN IT IS VERY GOOD DEVELOPMENT...

The Pragmatic One said...

1)Rafale is the only genuine OMNI ROLE aircraft in the world.
2) the only one offering a genuine battlefield proven AESA radar in active service
3) SUPER CRUZE capability which even F-35 lacks.
4) Highest weapons load
5) Carrier capable version
6) Greatest Range
7) Nuclear missile launch capable
8) 100% French with No US equipment and No multinational supply chain
9) Hence, 100% SANCTION PROOF and guaranteed maintenance support even if India tests NUKES in future.

EVEN IF IT COMES FOR $300M a piece, it will be money well spent.

If Numbers alone are what matters then additional su30mkis with super sukhoi upgrades will be more capable than gripen & euro fighter put together.

Those who think Rafale is expensive should check out Mumbai BMC's budget for FY 2015 which was close to rs 40,000 crores of which 16,000 crores is for filling potholes!!!!

Gessler said...

Sir ji, check this out -

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mahindra-airbus-pact-to-make-helicopters-among-16-india-france-deals-1269623

What do you make of this? Another Make-in-India production plan like Ka-226T?

Which Airbus models do you think would be procured the most by the military (although civilian stakes are also likely to be high here)? I was wondering if the EC725/H225M Caracal has a market for Indian military?

nio707 said...

Dear @Prasun, I am big fan of you few questions

1. What is the status of the MK1 tandem seat trainer as lift, and any order yet ?
2. You talked about the TVC, on LCA F414IN engine, what is the source of this assumption.
3. What do you think is the export potential of the LCA in the future.
4. What is the use of the single engine LCA MK-2 Naval in carrier operation, with just single engine other than training, offshore operation and to build technology for the next avataar.
5. What is the chances of India signing LSA, BECA, and CISMOA, and which option is better and why?
6. Rafale-M better suited for the IAC-2 as stated by you -- Ok, then a problem called EMAL, how would it could be solved without F-35 and LSA,CISMOA kinda stuff ?
7. Eagerly waiting for the next post of the Hype called CPEC but question is why do Pakistani are looking it as the Chirag of Alladin -- the answer and solutions of each and every problem ?
8. What is stopping India to kill the terrorist leaders through Paid killer or covert operations?

Mayur M Manapure said...

http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/31819/cpec-will-the-baloch-be-victim-to-the-pakistani-states-deceitful-tactics-again/

It's China Punjab ECONOMIC corridor...

Arpit Kanodia said...

PKS sir,
Whats your opinion about NSTC?

Did port of Chabahar ever able to connect to Moscow & Turkey (and then Europe), and strategically bypassing Suez Canal?
And stand as rival to Chinese Silk road & OBOR?

Srinivasa N said...

Dear Prasun,

What is the current status of Arjun MkII and will there be a MkIII albeit with less weight?

What is the status of FRCV and is it a ploy by Army to get Korean K2 Black Panther or Russian t14 Armata?

Will Army and Navy go for Tata Kestrel? What about tracked replacement of BMP2?

Also, are DRDO ATAGs a morphed version of F77H provided by BAe thru Mahendra Group?

Is MRTA IL214 joint project dead for india? Are we going to get C295s instead?
and will there me more C130Js in service?

Gopu said...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZlZ0dCUMAAnQ1M.jpg

They only signed an MoU? I thought negotiations were finished two months ago and this event was the public acknowledgement of the contract. Price negotiations will only be in between expensive and more expensive.

Sumanta said...

Wishing Happy Republic Day to Prasun Da and everybody here.

R. Sarath Kumar said...

Hello sir, just wanted to add one more question to my list -

5) Sir can you please explain what is likely to be the propulsion setup of IAC-2? It is pretty much confirmed that it will be nuclear, but what about other details? Like -

How many reactors will be on IAC-2?

What will be their power output? (in both MWe and MWt)?

Will the inclusion of EMALS drastically change the power requirements than a steam catapult setup?

6) Do you believe a Naval FGFA is likely for India by 2030 timeframe?

7) Latest news : http://defencenews.in/article/FGFA-back-on-track--Moscow-and-Delhi-to-invest-$8-billion-in-5th-gen-fighter-jets-2361

Looks like bright days ahead for FGFA project! Atleast as far as monetary needs go. Your views on this?

VMT in advance,
Sarath Kumar R.

PIYUSH DAS said...

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-01/24/c_135040289.htm

5.2-magnitude earthquake hits NW Pakistan
- Xinhua 2016-01-24

Pakistan is among the most earthquake-prone regions of the world with high vulnerability to earthquakes.
Geographically, the country lies in the collision zone of the India tectonic plate to the south and the Eurasian plate to the north.
On Oct. 26 last year, an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude struck parts of Pakistan, killing at least 280 people and wounding over 1,900 others..
In October 2005, a high intensity earthquake measuring 7.4 on the Richter scale hit parts of the country, causing large scale destruction and killing over 80,000 people and leaving hundreds of thousands others homeless.

PIYUSH DAS said...

गणतंत्र दिवस की हार्दिक शुभकामनाएँ मित्रों ।

जय हिन्द । जय भारत ।

Siddharth said...

Happy 67th Republic Day to all my Indian Brothers, Sisters and Comrades.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

Happy 67th Republic Day today

today French contingent did as march past on rajpath

wont it be a better idea to include military contingents from SAARC nations including Afghanistan Myanmar to do march past on Rajpath either on rotation or together

btw

just read that HAL was to make 110 Mirage 2000 in India but the plan was dropped why?

also read that Rafale deal is stuck mostly bcoz India is asking many add ons which France doesnt want to give away at loss

your views

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

rad said...

A quite good article on Modi from Pak press.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1034389/its-the-hug-life-modis-unique-style-of-meeting-world-leaders/

john said...

Please tell us MOD funding approval/Status of

1. LCA MK2 (Will naval Rafale kill it)
2. AMCA
3. Kaveri engine for AMCA (Will we import engined again, Heard that GE US is collaborating with GTRE)
4. Is there any scope for stealth version of LCA.
5. Arjun Catapult

Will govt revive NAL SARAS

Akhil said...

Respected prasun sir, happy Republic day to you and all Indians. Kindly elaborate, what is short fall in tejas project. How can it be more indigenous. Can ever kaveri engine see a fighter jet.

buddha said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1iHgz-f_10
sir ur view on the report

Sanchun Yaton said...

Hi Prasun,
Do you know if the China-Pak submarine deal has been formally sealed?
Does it include a local-build program?
Best,

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANCHUN YATOM: Yes, the deal was inked last year itself, sometime in April. It includes the propvision of a submarine re-build facility in Ormara & it will be used for catering only to the periodic refits & MRO. There isn’t any licence-building component to this deal. All eight Type 032 Qing-class SSKs (four S-26 & four S-30) will be built in Wuhan, China.

To BUDDHA: LoLz! Don’ believe it. Gaddafi got only what was promised to him. Jusy because he surrendered all his WMD plans & materials did not mean he was forgiven. An example was to be made out of him, just as the superpowers had decided upon a long time ago. A similar fate awaits Pakistan, which was threatened as far back as the mid-170s by Dr Henry Kissinger, who had then said “we will make a horrible example out of you”. Subsequently, Z A Bhutto was hung, Gen Zia was assassinated & now Pakistan is headed for de-nuclearisation. Dr Kissinger was right when he had stated: I’m far more dangerous to my friends than to my enemies”.

To AKHIL: This topic has been covered countless times in almost all previous threads. As have the solutions. Kindly refer to them.

To JOHN: 1) I fail to see how. LCA Mk2 & Rafale come in 2 completely different categories. 2) AMCA cannot proceed until R & D work on the LCA Mk2 has been completed & if by then the FGFA becomes available as well, then there will be no money left for any R & D work on the AMCA. 3) If a flyable & certified Kaveri turbofan is available by mid-2025, then it will first have to go on board the LCA Mk2 & not the AMCA. 4) Nope. 5) Why acquire 130mm tracked SPHs when the reqmt is for 155mm SPHs? Why can’t elements of the Kalyani Group’s 155mm towed howitzer be used for developing a 15mm Arjun Castapult?

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: That won’t be a good idea since it will stretch the time-limit for such parades. Only the marching contingent hailing from the same country as the Chief Guest should take part in the marchpast. Why no licence-built Mirage 2000? I’ve answered that several times before. The late Mrs. Gandhi overruled it in favour of the MiG-29B-12. As to why she did so, you weill have to ask her exorcised ghost or ‘Atmaa’ for definitive answers. Nothing is stuck anymore about Rafale. The IGA has already been inked & the rest is a matter of formality to be sorted out within the next 25 days.

And speaking of MBTs, do watch this on the T-14 Armata MBT:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxVLL_25gog

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To R SARATH KUMAR: Had answered that quite a few times before. Ity will be a 190mW PWR. Of course EMALS requires sudden power surges of the type that only PWRs can provide. Naval FGFA not for India. The IN prefers to go for the Naval Rafale. Any financial figures being touted about both the Rafale & FGFA deals are wildly speculative & way off the mark.

To GOPU: It is an agreement, as in IGA, & not a MoU by any stretch. The IGA is the umbrella-level understanding on the total number of Rafales to be procured by India over a clearly spelt-out timeframe. This figure will then be used by the French govt to provide sovereign guarantees to the OEM Dassault Aviation. The OEM will in turn then decide on the final unit-price & total acquisition costs to be charged to the customer (India) per annum, inclusive of annual cost-escalation percentages. That’s how the sequence works in any G-to-G contract. Consequently, all financial figures being spewed out by the ‘desi’ journalistic fraternity are wildly speculative & do not reflect the facts or the truth.

To MAYUR M MANAPURE & ARPIT KANODIA: The NSTC will take off & be implemented far far ahead of the CPEC, rest assured. Iran is clearly pissed off with Pakistan siding with Saudi Arabia. On top of that donor-nations of the WB & IMF have resorted to some ingenious ways to ensure an inescapable debt-trap for Pakistan & in the process ensure that Pakistan is de-nuclearised. Watch this from 22.25:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPf_wTNYnyw

In the meantime, all hell has broken lose inside Pakistan, especially Punjab province, where schools have been told to close for 3 days, officially due to heavy mist & fog, but actually due to enhanced terror-attack warnings. Mote & more Pakistanis are now convinced that while terrorist incidents have declined, the terrorists have not been eliminated as claimed before & they’re now simply hibernating, only to emerge at the appropriate time. Watch this debate that brings it all out in the open:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HK48ZN0tHk

Hardly an optimum investment climate. The former Chinese Chinese PM had once remarked to Gen Musharraf: Investors, local & foreign, are like pigeons. Scare them with a wrong policy & they all fly away together in a flock.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To NIO707: 1) Nothing. That option isn’t being pursued. Instead, the Combat hawk option is. 2) Not an assumption at all. It was talked about on-the-record by AM (Ret’d) Matheswaran, the strategic adviser to HAL’s Board of Directors way back in February 2015. 3) None at the foreseeable future. Domestic orders have to be met first. 4) It can be used a shore-based MRCA by the IN. 5) Chances care high. One cannot expect anything transformative from the US unless India brings something on the table to offer that’s equally transformative. 6) E-MAL:s is not F-35-specific. It can be used by any carrier-0based aircraft, even the MiG-29K. 7) Why? Because that country has run out of all other options. 8) What for? Instead, just create the necessary conditions in which they all kill themselves due to mutual suspicions & infighting.

To GESSLER: This is just an effort by Mahindra to become part of the global supplier chain. Nor will licence-building Ka-226 be of any use to India. That’s because it makes no sense to acquire 2 separate types of LUHs: the HAL-developed LUH & the Ka-226T. Going to 2 different types of LUHs is simply uncommercial & foolhardy. If I were the decisionmaker & wanted to give some business to Russia, then I would have opted for co-developing the Kamov Ka-92 as India’s future NMRH for the Army, Navy, Air Force & for commercial aviation as well. That way India’s aerospace industry would have learnt a lot more in cutting-edge areas like fly-by-light flight controls, etc. And HAL should have invited the country’s private-sector for not only taking over the production of Dhruv ALH variants, but also variants of the LUH & the LCH/LAH. That would have the cake to be shared much bigger & financially worthwhile to invest in. Private-sector companies, unlike HAL, do not engage in 5-year financial planning. They do so over at least a 22-year period & therefore need to be assured of long-term orders so that project cost amortization figures can be worked out. Another project that’s financially worthwhile is the development of a HTFE-25 turbofan-powered version of the Do-328 commuter turboprop, which is being built by TATA for RUAG Aerospace. Such a regional jetliner is required by the IAF & the IA, while the ICGS can use it as an MPA to replace its Do-228s. Above all, almost 200 such civil aviation aircraft variants are reqd for servicing the Tier-3 cities.

To PIYUSH DAS & COMMONSENSE: All financial figures about the FGFA & Rafale that are being spewed out by the ‘desi’ journalistic fraternity are wildly speculative & do not reflect the facts or the truth.

To SIDDHARTH: It is an IGA or AGREEMENT, not an MoU. Have explained above how the sequencing for a contract works out.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: Firstly, the definition of what constitutes a ‘smart city’ is still to be finalised. Secondly, WB needs more ‘Veidc’ cities, not smart cities, given the fact that the TMC state govt there isn’t even in favour of projects like nuclear energy generation PWRs! Unless existing mindsets change, nothing transformative can be expected in WB. WRT to your earlier question, why exactly should any OEM prefer to site its military hardware production facility in India? What exactly are the pros & cons? Right now, the cons far outweigh the pros, especially WRT to the export clauses. As I had already explained before, India’s decisionmakers in the govt’s executive branch still function with ideological blinkers on. Pragmatism therefore can’t be expected. On the other hand, China has exported weapons worth tens of billions of dollars over the past 5 years to countries that regard as other as enemies, like Bangl;adesh & Myanmar, & also Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria & Morocco.

To GOPU: The Russians would rather focus on acquiring variants of the Su-30 family in larger numbers, instead of the MiG-35. For, not just in India, but in the Middle East & North Africa too the MiG-35 hasn’t found any buyers. Meanwhile, here’s an interesting piece on EX VAJRA PRAHAR that the ‘desi’ journalists have failed to cover so far:

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/puget-sound/indian-soldiers-train-with-green-berets-at-jblm/

To SENTHIL KUMAR: This is what pragmatism is all about:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-once-hostile-arab-154943451.html

http://www.sltrib.com/home/3449428-155/the-saudi-secret-kept-by-us?fullpage=1

R. Sarath Kumar said...

Thank you so much for the replies, Prasun sir.

Waiting for answers for my earlier queries on Jan 24, as well. :)

VMT in advance

Arh93 said...


Sir (1)what is going to be the range of Tejas-MK1A aesa radar? (2)How many Barak-8/MR-SAM batteries IA AAD is going to induct? (3)Also why not merge both IAF & IA sam squ,regiments together for an unified air defence core?(4) IN high altitude Himalayan region can tejas-mk1 perform CAS role effectively?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To R SARATH KUMAR: As I had explained earlier, all financial figures being quoted & parroted were wildly speculative:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/France-marginally-reduces-Rafale-price-Report/articleshow/50745035.cms

And as for this:

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/western-command-to-procure-hand-held-uavs-to-boost-surveillance/#sthash.6Zsff7Q7.dpuf

Wonder why no one is exploring the idea of equipping the existing Netra mini-UAV with miniaturised HD thermal imaging sensor of the type readily available from the likes of ELBIT Systems!

Gessler said...

Your opinion, Prasun ji?

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/drishtikone/2012/11/muslim-youth-doing-target-practice-of-slaying-hindus-by-hacking-down-stray-dogs-and-cows-in-kerala/

Gessler said...

Also -

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/3-billion-arms-export-goal-puts-china-in-pm-modis-sights-foreign-media-1270916?pfrom=home-lateststories

You think we can hit that target?

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

as price haggling goes on & as things stand i think IAF will finally go for all 80 Rafales jets in fly away condition (as you predicted) to help cut cost per fighter jet

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2016/01/french-ambassador-expects-rafale.html

though you disagree i still feel if at all marching contingent are to included first try SAARC nation & Myanmmar our immediate neighbors every year 1 contingent

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

http://idrw.org/ufo-pakistans-ploy-to-test-reflex/

What is the motive behind balloon incident from paki? To check the indian Response & Capability?

Please comment.

Thanks
Senthil Kumar

पीयूष दास said...

Sir, what is the meaning of making brahmos-A missile, when we clearly have a program for brahmos-ng/m. Brahmos-m will be lighter than brahmos-A, but will have same range !

Anonymous said...

As per the post I saw earlier what does it mean with PN making the subs at home?
We have seen these boat appear in the middle of usa carrier group.....can they do the same with IN...if so what does that mean for our semen?

sushil

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Need to know why we are proposing Astra to be integrated on Rafale or am I wrong in my assumption?

Also request your opinion on the best air to air missile config. for Tejas in wvr and bvr.

Thanks

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUSHIL: That 'earlier' post contained junk & unsubstantiated rif-raf. Not an iota of truth in any licenced-construction of any kind. Nor will any of them be 'quieter' by any stretch of imagination than the existing Agosta 90Bs. By now it should have been obvious to one & all that I know a lot more about China-Pakistan military-industrial activities & projects than anyone else in the open domain throughout the SAARC & Indian Ocean regions. Therefore, kindly refrain from gulping whatever is spewed out by anyone else about such matters, erspecially those who have not even set foot on any part of China, leave alone their military-industrial facilities.

To PIYUSH DAS: Just wait & see what eventually goes on-board. 99.9% of the 'desi' journalists don;t even know what the BrahMos-NG is all about.

To SENTHIL KUMAR: Maybe yes, maybe no. What difference does it make! The only nett beneficiaries are the aircrew of the Su-30MKI that was scrambled. They are lucky to be a few more flight-hours logged into their flying logbooks due to this unscheduled flight.

To GESSLER: If at all such things were/are taking place in Kerala, then surely someone would have photographed or videographed such incidents. Why is there no such evidence presented? As for the quantum of weapons exports, they can be attained only if complete weapon systems or platforms are exported & I personally don't see this happening even in 2025.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VED: It is impossible to integrate the Astra BVRAAM with any non-Russian combat aircraft simply because the source-code for the BVRAAM's active radar seeker always has to be 100% compatible with that of the aircraft's MMR. Since the Astra uses a Russia-origin seeker it can be used only by the Su-30MKI. Why else do you think all firing trials of the Astra have so far been conducted from the Su-30MKI? For the Tejas LCA, be it the EL/M-2032 or the EL/M-2052, the only source-code compatible BVRAAM is the Derby & since the HMDS is the Targo from ELBIT Systems, again due to the source-code issue, the only WVRAAM that's compatible is an Israeli product like the Python-5.

पीयूष दास said...

तो फिर तेजस में r-73 मिसाइल क्यों और कैसे लगायी जा रही है सर ?
तेजस ने तो r-73 मिसाइल का परीक्षण भी किया है।

और तो और भारतीय वायुसेना तो राफेल पर भी अस्त्र मिसाइल लगाना चाह रही है।

Arpit Kanodia said...

PKS sir,

What's your opinion that India should have a Nationwide Emergency Action Alert/Message for disastars, epidemic & terrorist attacks like on Parliament or assassination of PM or Prez.

I know these are all pretty worse & bad situations, but who know the future?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIYUSH DAS: That question can only be answered by ADA. But what is undeniable is that all R-73E firings were a total waste of time, effort & money. And that's exactly why the IAF & In jointly decided in the end to opt for the Python-5/Derby combination instead of the Astra/R-73E combination.

To ARPIT KANODIA: Sounds like a pretty good idea. But what's reqd first & foremost is the creation of a National Emergency & Disaster Response Command Centre like the ones possessed by Russia & China & by the US Dept of Homeland Security. And such a centre must have four regional sub-centres for effective command, control & coordination.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

For those who may be interested about the Delhi-based agents, middlemen & arms merchants of the 1980s that were dominating the scene in Delhi, especially those involved with purchases of Soviet weaponry & their murky acquisitions, here’s another tell-all after the book DURBAR. This book, by Dr Subhash Chandra, spills all of it out, especially the murky dealings of the Gandhi family with the Soviets.

http://www.amazon.in/dp/9351773248/ref=pe_386221_48200641_TE_item

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Bizarre, but true:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/01/27/the-admiral-in-charge-of-navy-intelligence-has-not-been-allowed-to-see-military-secrets-for-years/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/01/21/sentencing-in-epic-navy-bribery-scandal-shows-how-easy-it-was-to-steal-military-secrets/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: http://qz.com/603783/why-india-is-such-a-terrible-place-for-innovation/?utm_source=YPL

And here's the complete report:

http://www2.itif.org/2016-contributors-and-detractors.pdf

And this is a typical example of path-breaking innovation:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a19137/raytheon-develops-spray-on-radar-for-the-military/

Gessler said...

Thank you so much for the links, Prasun ji!

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. this proves after all inspite of doing lot of copying/reverse engineering/stealing China still lacks the tech to jet engines which thankfully Russians have managed to save from falling into Chinese hands (you were right again)

http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/not-top-gun-yet-china-struggles-with-warplane-engine-technology-1271267?pfrom=home-lateststories

2. China is pissed of it seems as with India Vietnam oil cooperation as well as plans to build a satellite tracking station (its for ISRO) why is that

3. You said IS wont/cant spread across India but recent spate of arrest of IS cells say govt intel sources were sleeping while it expanded in India

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) I had written perhaps the world's first detailed report on specific technological deficiencies of China's aero-engine industry way back last November, which was published in full in the December 2015 issue of FORCE magazine.

3) Those so-called ISIS cells were all head-hunters engaged in talent-spotting & despatching them to fight in Iraq & Syria. This does not mean that ISIS is establishing branch offices in India in order to wage armed conflict inside India. Therefore, ISIS' activities inside India cannot be compared to the activities of entities like the JeM or LeT or HUM or HUJI. That's the difference & it should never be glossed over.

Anonymous said...

Sir if this continues, how do you think we will ever persuade the current IHK to remain with India and persuade PoK to join us:

"World Report 2016 issued by the Human Rights Watch (HRW) on Wednesday said Indian forces in occupied Kashmir are using torture as weapon to punish Kashmiri detainees, forcing them to become informers or join counter freedom fighter organisations."

Anthony

NRIan said...

Need to be very careful with ISIS, if they start targeting NRI's from Asia to ME to Europe. Imagine them forcing RSS/BJP supporters to start eating raw beef, on live TV.

Anup said...

Sir,

Your comment Please

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Not-top-gun-yet-China-struggles-with-warplane-engine-technology/articleshow/50772069.cms

Regards

Anup

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,

What was the use & motives behind the participation of LCA in Bahrain Air Show. This is well known no public entity able to get orders or even able supply LCA to any foreign country best before 2022 or 2025.

Then why spending taxpayers money which is of no use?

Anonymous said...

$11 billion for 36 Rafaels. They have warp drives.
what else in in the 11 billion?

Have been watching US election. What will be the impact when they stop H1B and get rid of many indians...they want their own guys doing those jobs.

Sushil

Mayur M Manapure said...

@lahori...na munna na...yeh sab yaha kisi Kaam ka nahi. What about those poor Shia girls who were abducted for Mujahedeen during Afghan war from Gilgit-Balitistan.

Ved said...

Hi Prasun,
Do you expect any increase in order of Rafales in future or it will be only 36 and thats all for IAF?

what industrial benefit will we enjoy for 50% Offset in this deal whatever be the price?

raw13 said...

@Ved,

At these prices, why bother with Rafael? Surely this is the start of the French milking the indians for the next 40+ yrs. French will play hardball with UAE looking to order too.

Hai Vanusaali said...

अरे भाई पीयूष दास अगर आपने अपना पेट्रियोटिसम का देखावा कर रहे हैं तो अपना घर मे और दूसरे ब्लॉग मे कीजिए. मेरे हिन्दी के साथ कोई नफ़रत नही लेकिन इस ब्लॉग मे आदमी आता है जो भारत से नहीं हैं - आपके देश भक्ति से प्रभाबित हूँ मगर उम्मीद हैं की आप ने अँग्रेज़ी ही इश्तेमाल करेंगे मेरे जैसे प्रवासी के लिए - बहुत धन्यवाद

पीयूष दास said...

प्रति Hai Vanusaali,
हाहाहा ! मैं तो केवल हिन्दी कीपैड पर प्रेक्टिस कर रहा हूँ यार। बल्कि आजकल तो बांगला कीपैड भी आज़मां सीख रहा हूँ। It has nothing to do with patriotism...
& whatever I write here in whichever language, if prasun sir is ok with it then I don't give a damn whether anyone else is ok with it or not.
Whether you do like OR don't like Hindi, its least of my worries.

ধন্যবাদ ভাই । ;-)

पीयूष दास said...

Dear Hai Vanusaali,
Today is the era of Google translations. You can even able to read Chinese newspaper on Google translations. Hence any contribution on this blog in whichever language shouldn't be a problem for you or any of our pravaasi brother.....

पीयूष दास said...

Sir, can you please provide us link of your article on force magazine about Chinese aero-ENGINE industry.

sandeep said...

Sir,

I want to know why there is no media coverage regarding Tejas performance at BAS. How do you rate Tejas vis a vis Mirage 2000.

Kaustav Bhattacharya said...

Dear Sir,

This so-called analyst is a Gas-bag of a Blimp if ever there was one :-

http://bharatkarnad.com/2016/01/30/navys-carrier-design-blunder-and-future-of-shar-air-wing/

One should read his other analyses too for a laugh.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. just read that China wants to open a rail line that reaches Iran, if so then why is it hell bent on CPEC and gwadar

2. just want to know can a hovercraft be used in the Ladakh, Sikkim, Arunachal areas where as you say no road link hampers defense readiness

3. aajtak says opium farming is rampant in malda, i say the channel got confused with poppy farms that are imp. source for khus khus/posto a ingredient for tasty bengali recipes like aloo/bhindi posto, your views (AFAIK only 3 districts in MP are allowed to harvest opium that are used in medicine)

thanks

Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) China is not hell-bent on CPEC. Only Gwadar & the results will be evident when I upload the remaining narrative tonight. That the CPEC is a total farce was conclusively proven yesterday itself in a Pakistani talkshow. Here it is:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy75QD75CfQ

2_ Those states all have lakes & rivers where hovercraft can be used.

3) Iy is all true, & far worse. Watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60Kmx3iXX1c&hd=1

To KAUSTAV BHATTACHARYA: That moron obviously can't distinguish between LPH & an aircraft carrier. Nor does he seem to be aware of the IN's force modernisation plans.

To SANDEEP: It was just an aerobatic performance of the Tejas Mk.1 prototype that was showcased in Bahrain. What else is there to report about? Did you see the photo of the entire HAL & ADA contingent present at that event? And that too for only 2 aircraft? Now compare that with the number of support crew that the French brought along during Aero India for supporting two of their Rafales.

Rajesh Mishra said...

To close the circle, now someone should come out with Arabic alphabets.

Anonymous said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItykyRdBTHE
sir what could Isreal gain in aiding the fall of assad
a radicalised neighbourhood can never be in interest of any nation
SID

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Pakistanis should answer the SIMPLE question about CPEC

How are they going to PAY the Rate of return that has been promised to CHINA
under CPEC

Today Pakistani EXTERNAL Debt is grrowing rapidly and will be 70 Billion Dollars
by the end of this year

And ADD to it the CIRCULAR debt ; Pakistani economy is doomed

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

I want to bring to your NOTICE a fact that I have observed in
Pakistani Talk shows POST Charsadda Attack ie Post BKU attack

It is that Pakistanis have simply LOST their Mind and are facing a Nervous Breakdown

Suddenly there is this realisation that Inspite of All this Zarb e Azb
They are facing this Huge terror threat

So we are seeing these schools closed ; General Shareef ANNOUNCING Retirement
PM Shareef enjoying himself on foreign trips and
All this talk of National Action Plan going no where

Their Home Minister / Interior Minister is saying that They
are LOOSING the Psychological war against Terror

http://www.dawn.com/news/1235919

buddha said...

http://www.themiddleeastmagazine.com/wp-mideastmag-live/2015/06/kurdish-muslims-abandoning-islam-for-zoroastrianism/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA: https://www.cia.gov/news-information/blog/2016/take-a-peek-into-our-x-files.html

http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/89801/DOC_0000015283.pdf

To VIJAY: How will the govt go about realising CPEC? Elementary, just pass on the burdens to the Pakistani taxpayers, like this:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1236026/govt-burdens-gas-consumers-with-rs101bn-to-finance-pipelines

But does it mean that China will continue subsidising Pakistan? Of course not, because China has new problems of its own. Read this:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-29/china-can-postpone-a-financial-crisis-but-not-the-cost?cmpid=yhoo.headline

The day is not far, therefore, that Pakistan will be de-nuclearised & defanged by the world powers, just as they had defanged Libya under Gaddafi, & now Iran. Bottomline: anyone that acquired WMDs through subterfuge & theft will be made a horrible example of.

As for terrorism, for as lopng as the factories churning out terrorists aren't shut down for good, terrorism will continue to thrive & spread like gangrene inside that country.

To SUSHIL: No financial figures have been released by either France or India. Therefore, everything that one reads about or hears on this issue is pure speculation.

To VED: Of course the numbers will increase. Had already explained it numerous times before.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANTHONY: The folks of J & K never reqd any form of persuasion to be a part of India. As per international law the princely state of J & K acceded to India in accordance with the stipulations of the India Independence Act of 1947 & that Act clearly sanctifies the Instrument of Accession that was inked on October 26, 1947 & therefore the UNSC Resolution of 1949 recognises the legality of the accession of J & K into India & that’s why the resolution refers to the region as the Indian state of J & K & the areas seized by Pakistan as PoK. Therefore, as per international law, there’s no such term as IHK, & PoK has to be returned to India one day or another. It will therefore revert back to India not by any persuasion from anyone. Pakistan knows this only too well & therefore raises the bogey of alleged human rights violation inside J & K, but this too since late 1971 has fallen on deaf ears for the whole world (especially within the OIC) because of the atrocities committed on the residents of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) & against the Palestinians in Jordan in 1970. Therefore, the world as a whole believes that Pakistan, which is no condition to treat its own Muslim citizens with dignity & honour, can definitely never be expected to harbor any good intentions towards J & K. On top of that is Pakistan’s dismal human rights record, like this:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1236032/hindu-marriage-bill

As for the HRW reports, none of the allegations can be proven in a court of law through incontrovertible evidence. Nor are terrorists caught red-handed detained, since they are shot dead as enemy combatants during encounters, especially when they are Pakistani Punjabis. The odd ones that are detained are those Pakistanis who can be paraded once in a while in front of Western diplomats based in Delhi. And it is due to this that everyone now believes that Pakistan has been the epicenter of state-sponsored terrorism since the late 1980s. No one forces anyone to become informers. Instead, they become informants due to the lure of cash rewards. Counter-freedom fighter entities don’t exist anyone. They ceased to exist in 1996. Today, only village defence committees exist.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: here's more about the hellhole called MALDA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1fv6Dhdm1w

Anonymous said...

Sir, I remember you mentioning that the US-2 aircraft will have a manufacturing line setup in India. Has this changed?

http://www.navhindtimes.in/no-make-in-india-us-2-aircraft-to-be-imported-in-flyaway-condition/

Please excuse me if I have miss interpreted what you said.

Thanks,
Sravanth

Subho said...

@ Sravanath : I'm going to take the liberty to respond to your question - Prasun had in fact posited that the US-2 would not be "Made in India". I remember this distinctly since I was in the camp of hopefuls that the MoD could prevail on ShinMaywa to assemble the US-2s in India but Prasun had explained why the economies of scale would not work out for the numbers being talked about. Once again he was right ! That's what keeps me coming back to his blog. Prasun, I truly admire your foresight and I wish some of the so called Desi defence journos would care to read your blog as well before shooting off their big mouths.

Anonymous said...

@Subho: thanks for the reply. Prasun sir last time mentioned of a jv similar to the lines of maruti udyog. It was his idea and he mentioned that MoD has accepted his proposal. I cannot find any other post related to US-2 about this jv being cancelled. Hence I had to ask.

john said...

Hi,

Can we use US-2 plane for anti-submarine or anti-ship role?

When can we expect additional orders for Scorpene-class subs ?

Gopu said...

So we all know that the major logjam for an indigenous defense industry is the lack of an equal playing field between parties and the lack of privatization of the publicly owned defense behemoths. But the big question is when can we expect this to be acknowledged by the gov't.? And after acknowledging this, implementation would be the next herculean task.

DAshu said...

@ Sravanath AND Subho this is what was said

The real ToT will take place with Shin Maywa. For, the good news is that the Govt of India has accepted my recommendation for the methodology of establishing a JV company (like Maruti-Suzuki) for not only licence-assembling the US-2i amphibian for the IN & ICGS, but also undertaking a large industrial co-production programme that will make this entire JV a financially viable effort. It all began late last year when the PMO asked the 3 armed services to draft their requests for amphibian aircraft. After this, it was realized that the number reqd was far too small to justify licenced-assembly & then the usual bureaucratic ‘jalebi-making’ efforts began, with the proposal going to the DIPP & getting stuck there. When I came to know of this tamaasha, my immediate suggestion was to increase the size of the cake, i.e. let the civil/military market for US-2i-type amphibians grow at a gradual pace over a decade. But in the meantime, let’s establish the JV with Shin Maywa (by initially creating a govt-owned company like Maruti Udyog) & entrusting this JV with the task of building in India the world-famous PAXWAY family of aero-bridges (see: http://www.shinmaywa.co.jp/english/products/museum_paxway.html
sales.parking@shinmaywa.co.jp) that will not only find a huge market within India (for Tier-2/Tier-3 airports in the 50+ smart cities), but will also be exportable. This alone will justify the creation of a JV company with Shin Maywa, instead of relying entirely on the induction of US-2i amphibians. I’m happy to note that after Shin Maywa & the DIPP did the math, they found my suggestion to be the only viable solution on the table worth implementing ASAP, & this is what is now being done.

Gessler said...

Check this out, Prasun ji -

http://www.oneindia.com/international/pakistan-army-murders-baloch-political-activist-leader-dr-manan-1998761.html

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