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Monday, February 1, 2016

Is It Really CPEC? Or Is It China's Karakoram Corridor That Is Now Unravelling?-2

For securing its energy supplies through overland routes, China has since 2005 has been increasing its supply-linkages with Russia and the Central Asian Republics at breakneck speeds. SINOPEC was allowed to buy a chunk of Russian producer Udmurtneft in 2006. In 2013, China acquired 12.5% of Russia's Uralkali, the biggest producer of potash, and CNPC agreed to prepay OAO Rosneft about $70 billion as part of a $270 billion, 25-year supply deal. That was followed by Rosneft’s $85 billion, 10-year accord with China Petrochemical Corp and CNPC's purchase of 20% of an Arctic gas project from Novatek for an undisclosed sum. In September 2014, President Vladimir Putin, who has been seeking new markets in Asia for Russian energy exports to replace traditional customers in Europe, announced that he would welcome Chinese investment in Vankor, a vast new oil field in remote eastern Siberia owned by the state firm Rosneft. All of Vankor's output of 440,000 barrels per day of crude is already shipped east, via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline, which includes a spur feeding China's northeast. A Russia-China pipeline will double capacity from 300,000 to 600,000 bpd by 2016. In fact, in 2014, China overtook Germany as Russia’s biggest buyer of crude oil, thanks to Rosneft securing deals to boost supplies via the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and another crossing Kazakhstan. In Beijing on November 9, 2014 Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a preliminary agreement under which the Kremlin-run monopoly Gazprom would eventually supply nearly one-fifth of the gas China is expected to need until 2020. All told, the deal, nearly as huge as the countries’ $400 billion gas deal signed in May 2014, meant that Gazprom would supply up to 1.3 trillion cubic feet of gas per year from western Siberia to China in the next 30 years through the new 2,500-mile pipeline, called the Power of Siberia-2. This pipeline will link Russia’s Altai Mountain region to the Xinjiang province of China and northern India. A contract between Russian natural gas company Gazprom and CNPC is for 30 years and calls for 1.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year, starting from 2018. And CNPC in 2015 acquired 20% of a $27 billion LNG project in Russia’s far north. It has also been offered equity in oil licence blocks in the Arctic and East Siberia.
Then there is the high-speed rail link that will eventually connect Moscow to Beijing. Vladimir Putin’s vision of a ‘Greater Europe’ from Lisbon to Vladivostok, made up of the European Union and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, is now being replaced by a ‘Greater Asia’ from Shanghai to St Petersburg. Putin agreed to give the planned Silk Road Economic Belt (a regional trade and transportation plan that has been President Xi’s foreign policy priority since 2013) the green light after Xi agreed to include Trans-Siberian and BAM railways in the scheme.
China is now the largest trading partner of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan.  Beijing has been investing billions of dollars in the energy sector, which include a series of contracts with Kazakhstan worth $30 billion, 31 agreements of $15 billion value with Uzbekistan, and natural gas transactions with Turkmenistan in 2013, which reached about $16 billion. China has also provided loans and aid worth $8 billion to Turkmenistan and is expected to provide at least $1 billion to Tajikistan. In 2015, China upgraded relations with Kyrgyzstan to a strategic level. Presently, Turkmenistan is the largest supplier of natural gas to China, accounting for more than 50% of the total imports. Turkmenistan, which has the world’s fourth largest gas reserves, already supplies China 40 billion cubic metres every year, with exports rising following the opening of a 1,833km-long pipeline in 2009. Both nations had signed a deal in 2007 for the export of 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually for 30 years. Turkmenistan has since agreed to increase its planned supply of natural gas to China by 25 billion cubic metres. Under this deal, CNPC has also received the right to develop the Amu Darya gas fields. For ferrying gas from this area, a 8,700km-long natural gas pipeline, which is the world’s longest, was operationalised on June 30, 2011. The pipeline, which links Turkmenistan with southern China, starts in Huoerguosi on the China-Kazakhstan border, 670km northwest of Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.  It boosted supplies to China’s booming industrial zones in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hongkong SAR. The pipeline has one trunk and eight branches. Three branches have been completed and the other five will be finished next year.
Earlier in December 2014, the Presidents of Iran, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan inaugurated a railway line that runs from western Kazakhstan to northern Iran. The main goods to be transported via the railway will be oil and other energy products, Kazakh grain and agricultural products, Turkmen cotton and cheap China-origin consumer goods for markets in Central Asia, Iran and beyond. Estimates suggest that by 2020, 10% of trade between China and Europe will be transported via inland rail and road routes. Negotiations on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line, the ‘Silk Road Railroad’ that was initially proposed in 1997, have seen significant progress in recent years.
In Kazakhstan, CNPC beat India by agreeing to pay $4.18 billion in August 2005 for PetroKazakhstan, then China’s biggest overseas oil deal. CNPC had trailed India’s ONGC and its partner Lakhsmi N Mittal’s $4 billion bid at the close of bidding on August 15, 2005. But post-close of bidding, it was allowed to raise the offer price to $4.18 billion, which saw PetroKazakhstan, a Canadian oil firm operating in Central Asia, go to CNPC. Kazakhstan, home to 3% of the world’s recoverable oil reserves, has moved in recent years to exert greater management control and secure bigger revenues from foreign-owned oil and gas projects. Kazmunaigas entered the Kashagan consortium as a shareholder in 2005 and has since then doubled its stake to 16.81%. Kashagan (a Caspian Sea field set to produce 370,000 barrels of oil a day), with reserves estimated at 35 billion barrels of oil in place, produced its first oil in September 2013. It was in July 2013 that the Kashagan project—which contains some of the largest oil discoveries made in the world in the past 40 years—was operationalised. CNPC had then entered the scene with the help of the China Development Bank and the China Export-Import Bank. KazMunaiGaz bought a US-based oil company’s 8.4% interest in the project, and this stake in turn was sold to CNPC for a reported $5.4 billion. The Kashagan project took off eight years later than initially planned and with costs nearing $48 billion, double the early estimates.
In Tajikistan, CNPC and Frances TOTAL in June 2013 completed an agreement with Tethys Petroleum Ltd to develop oil and gas assets under the. Bokhtar project. CNPC’s China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corp subsidiary and Total each took a one-third stake in the concession, which Tethys has said may contain 3.22 trillion cubic metres of gas and 8.5 billion barrels of oil. Tajikistan imports more than 90% of the oil and gas it uses, and Dushanbe is eager to develop its domestic resources, much of which lie in the southwest of the country in an extension of the Amu Darya basin, which feeds huge gas fields in neighbouring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Tajikistan’s reserves could meet China’s natural gas consumption for an estimated 24 years. 

The CPEC Conundrum
It is now known that just 6% of what China had promised Pakistan in terms of aid, assistance, and investment between 2001 and 2011 was delivered ($66 billion was pledged in total). And this is because there is no economic rationale to the Kashgar-Gwadar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For, it is physically impossible to maintain year-long connectivity between China and Pakistan through the Karakoram Highway (KKH), which links Kashghar in Xinjiang with Gilgit and Abbottabad through the Khunjerab Pass. Today, the KKH is functional for five months a year at best because of adverse weather. A landslide and flooding in 2010 blocked the highway for more than one year. China and Pakistan have discussed the possibility of building a parallel highway that will feature extensive tunnels that cut through the Khunjerab Pass, rendering landslides irrelevant, but still making it highly vulnerable to earthquakes. Therefore, this idea of extensive tunnelling seems fanciful-and expensive, estimated by Pakistan to cost more than $11 billion
The KKH presently runs approximately 1,300km (915 miles) from Kashgar, following the valley of the Chez River, the Khunjerab Pass (at an elevation of 4,693 metres or 15,397 feet), Hunza (known as the original Shangri-La) for 310km along the Indus River Valley, and along the (Gilgit and) Kunhar Rivers to Islamabad in the Chillas District of Pakistan. Roughly 494km of it lies in Chinese territory, while the remaining 806km traverse through the highest mountains in Pakistan. An extension of the KKH meets the Grand Trunk Road at Raikot, west of Hassanabdal in Pakistan. On June 30, 2006, an MoU was signed between the Pakistani Highway Administration and China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) to rebuild and upgrade the KKH. According to SASAC, the KKH’s width will be expanded from 10 metres to 30 metres (33 feet to 98 feet), and its transport capacity will be increased three times its current capacity. In addition, the upgraded KKH will be designed to particularly accommodate heavy-laden vehicles in extreme weather conditions. On January 4, 2010, the KKH was closed in the Hunza Valley, thereby eliminating through traffic to China except by small boats. A massive landslide 15km (9.3 miles) upstream from Hunza’s capital of Karimabad created the potentially unstable Attabad Lake, which reached 22km (14 miles) in length and over 100 metres (330 feet) in depth by the first week of June 2010 when it finally began flowing over the landslide dam. Eventually, a new 24km route along the southeastern side of the lake was completed in 2015 and opened to the public on September 14, 2015. The route comprises 5 tunnels and several bridges. The longest tunnel is 3,360 metres in length, followed by 2,736 metres, 435 metres, 410 metres and 195 metres. The Attabad Tunnel was completed on September 14, 2015. 
Had the intent been to ensure all-weather, year-long road connectivity between China and Pakistan, then logically the Khunjerab Pass should have been discarded as an option, and instead focus should have been laid on five other passes of the Karakoram mountain range. These include the Mintaka Pass at over 4,700 metres above sea level just west of Khunjerab, which was used by travellers on the ancient Silk Route; the Shimshal Pass at 4,735 metres that leads to the Shimshal Braldu River Valley; the Kilik Pass (elevation 4,827 metres or 15,837 feet), 30km to the west of Mintaka Pass, which is a high mountain pass between Gilgit-Baltistan and Xinjiang; the eastern or ‘Old’ Mustagh Pass (altitude of about 5,422 metres);  or the 5,600 metre-high ‘New’ Mustagh Pass, about 16km to the west. 
The Silk Road Fund Co Ltd was established in China in December 2014 to extend investment and financing support worth $45.69 billion in commercial loans to all the envisaged CPEC projects and to promote industrial cooperation with Pakistan. This fund management company—set up as a consortium of leading Chinese banks, including the China Exim Bank and the China Development Bank—had initial funds of $10 billion, which have now been raised to $40 billion. The money being offered by China is thus project financing, not aid and not concessionary loans. The Silk Road Fund is injecting the capital into a subsidiary of China Three Gorges Corp. The concessionary nature of the proposed investments comes in when one considers the fact that hardly anybody else is willing to invest in Pakistan. Foreign direct investment into large infrastructure projects in Pakistan is not feasible since no private investor is ready to acquire large stakes in this country, given its internal instability realities. So one has a bilateral commitment from China instead, which is part governmental in that the Silk Road Fund and the China Three Gorges South Asia Investment, a subsidiary of the China Three Gorges Corp.
Out of the pledged $45.69 billion, $33.79 billion has been earmarked for energy projects, $5.9 billion for road construction, $3.69 billion for railway network construction, $1.6 billion for the Lahore Mass Transit, $66 million for Gwadar Port, and a fibre-optic network project worth $4 million. The prioritised, short-term projects involve more than $17 billion in investment. Apart from the 720mW Karot hydropower project between the China Development Bank Corp, EXIM Bank of China and Karot Power Company (Private) Ltd, they include the upgrading of the 1,681km Peshawar-Lahore-Karachi railway line ($3.7 billion); 1,980mW Thar coal-fired powerplants ($2.8 billion); development of two Thar coal mining blocks ($2.2 billion); the Gwadar-Nawabshah natural gas pipeline ($2 billion); imported coal-based 1,320mW power plants at Port Qasim worth ($2 billion); a 900mW solar park in Bahawalpur ($1.3 billion); the Havelian-Islamabad road-link of the KKH ($930 million); a 260mW wind farm at Jhimpir ($260 million); 870mW hydro-electric Suki Kinari project between EXIM Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd and SK Hydro (Private) Ltd; Sahiwal coal-fired powerplant project between industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd, Huaneng Shandong Electricity Ltd and Shandong Ruyi Group; and the Gwadar International Airport ($230 million). The Sindh Engro Coal Mining Company, a joint venture of Engro Powergen Ltd and the Sindh government, holds the lease of Thar Block-II coalfields, while its Thar Power Company will construct a series of mine-mouth power plants. In May 2015, Pakistan concluded the implementation and the power purchase agreements for two 330mW projects, which are scheduled to begin commercial operations by December 2017. And the China Development Bank has finalised the terms and conditions for financing a 3.8 million tonnes per annum coal-mining project as well as a power project. On June 25, 2015, Pakistan approved another Thar coal-based mine-mouth power project of 1,320mW capacity, which is being developed by the Shanghai Electric (Group) Corp in partnership with Sino-Sindh Resources, a subsidiary of Global Mining (China) Ltd. Sino-Sindh Resources will receive $1 billion from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. This mine-mouth power project, originally planned to start power generation in 2016, has now been rescheduled for commissioning by 2018. A Letter of Intent from the Chinese banks was issued in March 2015 for 75% project financing of the $2.6 billion project, 25% of which will be equity. In addition, Chinese banks will provide financing for two 660mW imported coal-fired power plants at Port Qasim. A financing cooperation agreement was recently signed by the China Exim Bank and the Port Qasim Electric Power Company for the under-construction project. Pakistan’s National Electric Power Regulatory Authority had approved the upfront tariff on February 13, 2015. The other 660mW project at Port Qasim is being developed by the Lucky Electric Power Company. The two projects are scheduled to begin commercial operations within four years. But they are likely to be delayed as a dedicated jetty for each project has to be constructed for unloading the imported coal, and the contracts for them have not yet been awarded. Meanwhile, the Punjab state government has leased 4,500 acres of land to Chinese investors for the development of Phase-2 of the 900mW Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, to be commissioned in 21 months. The China Development Bank, Exim Bank of China and Zonergy Co Ltd are involved in it. Likewise, the draw-down agreement for the Jhimpir wind project between UEP Wind Power (the borrower) and the China Development Bank Corp (the lender) has been concluded. The project, having achieved financial closure, is scheduled to begin commercial operations in 2016. Given the timelines for completion, these power projects could possibly add reasonable generation capacity to Pakistan’s national grid by 2018, but they would hardly provide any relief to the nation in terms of the fast-growing demand for electricity. And there is no silver lining for consumers as far as the cost of the electricity is concerned. All the Chinese loans will be insured by the China Export and Credit Insurance Corp (Sinosure) against non-payment risks, and the security of the loans is guaranteed by the state. A framework agreement for energy projects under CPEC was recently signed between Sinosure and Pakistan’s Water & Power Ministry to provide sovereign guarantees. Sinosure is charging a fee of 7% for debt servicing, which will be added to the capital cost of a project. For instance, the capital cost of a 660mW project at Port Qasim is $767.9 million. But it goes up to $956.1 million by adding Sinosure’s fee of $63.9 million, its financing fee and charges of $21 million, and interest during construction of $72.8 million; a 27.2% return on equity is guaranteed. Ironically, interest during construction is allowed at the rate of 33.33% for the first year; 33.33% for the second; 13.33% for the third; and 20% for the fourth year. This scenario therefore presents a bleak picture, as the availability of affordable energy will likely remain a pipedream.

Gwadar Port’s Importance To China
Pakistan had identified Gwadar as a naval base site as far back as 1954 when Gwadar was still under Omani rule. Pakistan's interest in Gwadar started when, in 1954, it engaged the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a survey of its coastline. The USGS deputed the surveyor, Worth Condrick, who in turn identified Gwadar as a suitable site for a seaport. After four years of negotiations, Pakistan purchased the Gwadar enclave from Oman for $3 million on September 8, 1958 and Gwadar officially became part of Pakistan after 200 years of Omani rule. It was offered to the USA for development in the early 1970s, but the US refused to do so. It was only in 2001 that China agreed to co-develop the Gwadar Port by providing $198 million in financial assistance. Gwadar Port was eventually developed by China Harbour Engineering Company at a cost of $248 million between 2002 and 2006. Phase-I covered the building of three multipurpose berths and related port infrastructure and port handling equipment. This phase was completed in December 2006 and commissioned inaugurated on March 20, 2007. Under this phase, the following were constructed: 3 multipurpose berths each with a length of 602 metres and with a combined capacity of bulk carriers of 30,000 DWT) and container vessels of 25,000 DWT, an approach channel 4.5km-long dredged to 12.5 metres depth; a turning basin 450 metres in diameter; one 100-metre service berth; and related port infrastructure and handling equipment, pilot boats, tugs, survey vessels, etc. At the same time, a $200 million Makran Coastal Highway connecting Gwadar to Karachi was completed. Phase-2 of the project, now being built at a cost of $932 million. Will see the construction of 4 container berths, one bulk cargo terminal with a capacity of 100,000 DWT ships, one grain terminal, one ro-ro terminal, two oil terminals (capacity: 200,000 DWT ships each), and one approach channel to be dredged to 14.5 metres depth. Also to be built was a China-supplied oil refinery, plus roads linking Gwadar to Quertta in Balochistan and Ratodeo in Sindh. None of these, however, were implemented, nor was the promised 584 acres of land in Gwadar handed over by the Pakistan Navy to PSA.
Gwadar Port is presently owned by the government-owned Gwadar Port Authority and operated by the China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC). Earlier, between 2007 and 2012, it was operated by Singapore’s PSA International. Following the completion of Phase-I, Pakistan had on February 1, 2007 signed a 40-year agreement with PSA International for the development and operation of the tax-free port and duty-free trade zone. PSA International was the highest bidder for the Gwadar port after Dubai’s DP World backed out of the bidding process. In a highly competitive environment, in order to enable Gwadar to compete with its regional peers, the port fees was kept low by allowing a wide range of tax concessions to PSA International to cut operational and business costs. These included complete exemption from corporate tax for 20 years, duty-free imports of materials and equipment for construction and operations of the port and a free economic zone; and zero rate of duty for shipping and bunker oil for 40 years. In addition to these incentives, the provincial government of Baluchistan was also asked to exempt PSA International from the levy of provincial and district taxes. According to this agreement, the Gwadar Port Authority and Pakistan were to get a fixed share i.e. 9% of the revenue from cargo and maritime services, and 15% of the revenue earned from the free-trade zone. PSA International was expected to invest US$550 million in the next five to ten years on creating the operational facilities. The first commercial cargo vessel ‘Pos Glory’ berthed at Gwadar Port with 70,000 metric tonnes of wheat on March 15, 2008. However, by 2011 Gwadar was doing little business as a commercial port, and Pakistan had then asked China to take over the operation. A year later, China confirmed that it would be taking control of Gwadar for a period of 43 years. Pakistan on February 18, 2013 formally awarded a contract for the further construction and operation of Gwadar Port to China. Under this contract, COPHC also won the right to acquire more than 2,000 acres of land.
Work on the port development aspects of Gwadar picked up steam after 2008, when China began sending its warships to the Gulf of Aden for anti-piracy operations. In addition, it had become clear to Beijing in 2011 that it desperately required a dedicated naval logistics support base and an air base for supporting the staging operations of People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) non-combatant evacuation operations (NEO), such as the one in 2011 that saw China evacuating 35,000 of its citizens from Libya. This is when Beijing started serious work on acquiring such facilities in Djibouti and Gwadar that will support the PLA’s future NEOs that may need to be undertaken in either the Gulf of Aden, or the Mediterranean Sea, or the Persian Gulf.


BROWN DESI said...

Excellent work as per usual Mr Gupta. You really have good command on all things defence in Asia. Just a small query; what is opinion in relation to Chinese J-10 being a really modified copy of IAF LAVI or is it a further elaboration on MIG 1.44 concept. J 10 being an aircraft which will be/is workhorse of the PLAF.
Brown Desi

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

I read some where that even the Road projects of CPEC are also carrying a
Interest of One to Two percent

So That will be accounted with the TOLL charges that the Pakis hope to collect
from the CPEC

That means more out flow from Pakistan AND Bare minimum earnings from the Road projects

And the Electricity projects are so expensive that One fine day
Pakistan will simply SELL Baluchistan to China
rather than Paying them in US dollars

The capacity of the Pakistani state to RE PAY their debts and the Interest on
such projects is declining

So the question is when the Chinese are aware of the Precarious nature of
Paki economy ; why would they even start such doomed projects

Ranjit B Rai said...

One of the best reports on the subject of importance of GWADAR for both China and Pakistan and so Iran wants to tie in India with Chah BAHAR and unless Naval thinking and assurances are brought in to bear on Iran the Iranians can play strategic games and out do India.

Chinese CMC has carried out reforms in its command structure but we live with antiquated Command systems which will be India's Achilles heel ...wait and see and see how Iran has handled USA after going nuclear in secret !

Gessler said...

It is of strategic importance to India (as per me) that Gwadar be immediately blown up and all Chinese ships in sight be sunk to the bottom of the sea.

That said, I need your opinion Prasun ji - about the future of Sindh post an operation by the Coalition of the Willing. Independence? Or accession to India? Given a similar democratic choice as the people of Gilgit-Baltistan should be, what do you think?

By the way, as usual the article is detailed and straightforward as ever. Great work.

Jon said...

Interesting read on the hacking by us uk of Israeli drones:

DAshu said...

how do you have so much detailed information related to those two countries ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRAVANTH: A licenced-production line can only be set up in India if the order at the very outset exceeds 65 units. If not, then only final assembly from kits supplied in semi knocked-down condition is possible & financially viable. This is the problem when one starts interpreting developments based on catchy but unimplementable slogans like MAKE IN INDIA. The gullible news-reporter has obviously fallen victim to such assumptions & has not bothered to look into project viability issues. The total number of US-2is flying within the IOR with a few countries may well exceed 65 units, but that’s a future target, & not the takeoff point for this project.

To JOHN: No, it can’t. It is a slow lumbering amphibian & does not possess the sprint speeds required to reach an area of interest & commence sub-hunting or warship-hunting operations. It can at best be used as a SAR platform & as an MPA during anti-piracy operations.

To SUMANTA: 1) Of course not. The Kaveri project is only half-way through its R & D cycle & much more needs to be done before the R & D project is terminated. 2) There are 2 options available: legalise the cultivation of poppy & at the same time prevent private individuals like smugglers from buying the harvest; & ensure foolproof fencing of the border districts of Malda & Murshidabad so that the trafficking of FICN is almost eliminated.

To BROWN DESI: The J-10’s airframe is indeed a re-engineered version of the Lavi’s airframe, just like the PL-8 WVRAAM is a re-engineered version of RAFAEL’s Python-3 WVRAAM. For both the J-10 & P)L-8, Israelis were the project consultants & mentors throughout the early & mid-1980s.

To VIJAY: It doesn’t matter to China how Pakistan will manage to pay back for all these projects. What matters more to China is how exactly will Pakistan end up as a vassal state of China, just like Cambodia & Laos are today.

To GESSLER: VMT. No need to get perturbed at all. Gwadar will NEVER end up as a full-fledged naval base, but will be just a logistics support base. The dedicated naval base will be in Ormara. What will determine the future of Sindh will be future political status of that state’s 2 dominant political parties: PPP & MQM. Since both are now regional parties with no national appeal in the rest of Pakistan, they will prefer to focus more on affairs pertaining to Sindh & neighbouring Baluchistan & will not be bothered about what’s happening in the rest of Pakistan. A confederation of Sindhu Desh & Baluchistan—which breaks away from Pakistan—can therefore never be ruled out in future.

To DASHU: Information is easily available if one is interested in collating it. What is far more important is the ability/capacity to connect the dots for obtaining the big picture. Only then can logical inferences/assessments be drawn/made about the future state of affairs. For instance, the recent exercises by the PLAN’s Marine Brigades in the Gobi & Taklamakan deserts is just like any other exercise on the surface. It is only when one analyses the exercises & understands the intent behind such exercises that one can draw some firm conclusions about the reasons for holding such exercises. But more about it it the following thread.

Arh93 said...

Prasun da (1)How many P-8I's do you think IN need in total for eastern+western naval command? (2)out of 6 Kalavari class sub how many of them IN going to field in Eastern naval command?(3) can a combination of P-8I,Kamotra class corvette,scorpene/P-75i class sub effectively turn Malacca strait into a PLAN submarine death trap?

Arh93 said...

Thanks for the very informative post about CPEC Prasun Da.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARH93: VMT. Total desired reqmt for P-8I LRMR/ASW platforms is 26, that is if the IN is to be taken seriously as the nett guarantor of maritime security within the IOR. MRMR/ASW platforms are not reqd. As for MPAs for the ICGS, about 36 US-2i amphibians are reqd & these will also cater to the IAF's & IN's reqmt for SAR missions. As for SSKs, the IN's Scorpene fleet should be no less than 9. The SSN fleet should comprise 9 boats. Total number of P-28 corvettes reqd is 9.

joydeep ghosh said...


Prasun da

while everyone talks about the drug menace in Malda, punjab there is absolute silence about afeem/ganja/cannabis/heroine trade that flourishes in Kullu/Manali and the Malana weed.

Years ago i had seen Tv report (dont remember channel probably zeenews) that talked about flourishing afeem/ganja/cannabis/heroine trade in Kullu/Manali being under the control of Israeli/Russian drug addicts and paddlers and where even locals of some areas treated Indians coming from other parts as outcast. That report also talked about foreigners runn9ing from law of their nation (remember the foreigners hiding faces when camera was focused on them)

anyways a few querries

1. while enough has been said about defanging of nuclear Pak nothing is ever heard of defanging of petro saudi arab, that has used its petro dollars to peddle hardline sunni islam worldwide including funding madrassa in India/Pak that is the main root for growing militancy, will we ever see that

2. While you say CPEC will be a non starter something in me tells me that if Pak doesnt come clean on Gilgit Baltistan status China just like Saksgam valley may well buy huge chunks of land north of Gilgit town that will give China direct access from Urumqi to Tehran via Wakhan corridor through herat, return od setlling the debt, you views

3. Sourav Jha a journalist says Tejas Mk1A at 1 ton lighter cant fly, why so

4. Reports say western spy agencies & Iran have cracked the code of Israeli spy drones the socalled tech leader, if so its a concern for India which is a big operator of Israeli drones


Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Just because matters are progressing behind-the-scenes beyond public glare doesn't mean that nothing is happening. 2) Buying of real estate by China is not an option. There are other options that I will explain in detail in the next thread. 3) Dunno. You will have to ask him. In any case, there's no such version in existence as Tejas Mk1A. 4) Only the NSA & GCHQ have done it, not Iran. All Israeli avionics use several critical components sourced from the US.

Sangos said...

That innovation report is amusing.....China lifted its economy 14 fold and ranks lowest and after lifting 300 million people out of poverty. Yeh angrez ka bhejaa gayaa kam se. Din khatam ho raha hai hawhawhhawhahwhawhahw

Arh93 said...

Prasun Da as an ardent follower of this blog I wish if you could create a detailed and informative post about Rare materials plant Ratnahalli and & nuclear city in Challakere like your "Is it really CPEC?or is it.....

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARH93: I had already posted the weblink of a detailed report some threads back. There's nothing new to add to that. Nor is there anything called 'Nuclear City'. At best a township run by the DAE.


Dear Prasun,

What will be the role of Tejas Mk I in IAF???

Anonymous said...

Prasun Sir, thanks very much for the reply. You are simply great. I am not sure how you know and remember so many things.

Please answer the below queries if possible.

1) As you mentioned that China wants to make Pakistan it's vassal state, does that mean it will not allow Pakistan's economy to grow and will keep it the same state as it is, so that they can keeping funding them and make money. This will also mean China will keep using Pakisthan as a proxy to counter India. Are any precautions being taken by our govt or RAW or who ever the powers that be to keep all this in check.

2) Regarding the China's Silk road, it looks like a good plan by China to keep its economy and trade going. Does India have similar plans to increase trade, influence and investments around the world.

3) Any chance we will have the same influence and money that china/japan has 10 years from now.

Thanks in advance.


SATYAM said...

Hi Prasun,

Today in reply to a question on AMA-Reditt former NDTV reporter/editor from North East, Kishalay Bhattacharjee said:

India is heading towards a dangerous edge. We have a political democracy but we don't have a social or economic democracy and that will explode our political democracy.

It(India) won't disintegrate but the internal tension will heighten and we will witness long years of ethnic strife

Do you agree with his views that this is where India is heading? Thanks.

CSC said...

What was that, u said, there is nothing called mk1a.
Weirdly the air force Chief has spoken of mk1a.
I give you a lot of credibility, but more than the air Chief marshall


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To CSC: How memories run short! Kindly see the entire press conference of the IAF's CAS on the eve of Air Force Day in which he says what the IAF eventually wants: Tejas LCA. Not Mk.1 or Mk.2 or Mk.1A or anything else. It is therefore not about anyone's personal credibility, me or anyone else. What matters in the end is the official institutional statement from an institution like the IAF.

Now, if you choose to believe someone who makes out a news-report using the term Tejas Mk.1A, then there's nothing anyone can do to reverse your assumption.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Every year India keep testing the akash missile. Last week again IAF tested the missile.

Why they keep testing and Drdo claimed that the missile is a success project.
And already inducted into service.

Is Akash a good missile to defend our skies?.

Please comment.

Senthil Kumar

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SENTHIL KUMAR: All guided-missiles after service-induction are test-fired every year by everybody. These are collectively known as live-firing drills & are TOTALLY different from demonstration firings or user-evaluations prior to ser4vice-induction.

Meanwhile, the CPEC is becoming a Corridor of Commedies! Read this:

And watch this:

The cost of implementing the CPEC has now risen from US$46 billion to US$49 billion, because some arseholes (not known whether they're Chinese or Pakistani) forgot to add the cost of electricity transmission/distribution from all the power generation stations that are under construction!

On another note, read about the undecisiveness & professional incompetence of the former COAS of the PA:

rad said...

hi prasun
The buggers forced Suneet krishna to leave, this includes the IAF and the CABS. I have a feeling he was becoming too popular which made him a victim. What in the world is happening ?. Any nation would have made him the hero of the nation but it is the opposite here. Is he replaceable? , what is the damage.
why cant the defense minister intervene and pull them up after all he is a no nonsense guy.Or for the matter of fact THE PM.?

Anonymous said...


Seriously MOD needs to make an example and thrash IAF for this apathy towards the ace pilot who dedicated 20 years of his life why? just because he flyed an Indian fighter typical Imported Air Force .i dont expect much from IAF they would rather discourage any pilot to be part of indegineous program as otherwise how would they get millions of dollar as bribe / gifts .SICK Mentality of these corrupt officals sicken me.Shamefull

S Singh

john said...


Hope this tech will make Crude oil Obsolete.

The company has built the prototype for Samsung Galaxy S4, but it says it will soon start manufacturing nanodot-based batteries for other brands as well. That means we can just plug-in, wait for about a minute and then start using the smartphones again. This is like drinking a glass of glucose water and start running again in a marathon.

Of course, there is still some work to be done to make the battery fully useful and functional, but the prototype has made it clear that we are heading towards a new smartphone age where recharging is a matter of just a few seconds. And, that is a good news for one and all.

Myersdorf told that the technology could also be used in electric cars, which will need some modification of the electrode so that it produces higher currents (this may need configuring a large number of cells in parallel).

StoreDot plans to reshape its size and begin mass production of the device in 2016.

Anup said...


HAL just Rolls-out HTT-40 Prototype. Is it possible to going in production in near future?

Link :-

Yudhvir Mahajan said...

Dear Sir,
Thanks for sharing such a nice, precise piece, full of information right up to the round $ figures and dates. Tremendous effort must have gone to come out with such work. Thanks once again for enriching us

Yudhvir Mahajan said...

This also opens my eyes as to the ambition and scale of China. What we did not even think, they've already implemented
. Today, oil and gas is flowing into their country from so many points and with long term contracts. And we have not been able to clear the way for a pipeline in our own land for Petronet LNG so that benefit of cheaper, cleaner fuel can be made available to common masses.

Just waiting to see another parliament session washed off. Guys have already got a lot of fodder to execute their plans. Political opposition is fine, but we must also find a way to overcome our differences and don't stand in the way of development.

Ravi said...

Dear Sir

Is the RAFALE deal Irreversible ?

Or is there still a Possibility of The
Rafale deal UNRAVELLING due to costs

There are reports that Dassault is looking for Small orders
and BIG Margins per plane

Where as India wants them to take a BIG order with small margins per plane

Secondly Is the JAITAPUR Nuclear Deal also TIED to Rafale deal
We should Insist on Tying both of these projects and deals

Either the French get BOTH or Nothing

Rajesh Mishra said...

Russians have started in-situ testing of the SU-35S over the war skies of Syria. With this are they going to get any real advantage over Turkey and the Caliphate of ISIS.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI: Read this:

Magicbullet said...

'Boeing will invest billions of dollars in India'

Now Boeing plans to manufacture F18 here..your comments Dada.

Magicbullet said...

Check out @ETDefence's Tweet:

rahul said...

sir, what is happening in so called VVIP chopper scam? was there any scam at all or not? IF no and no Indian was involved then why the CBI is still pursuing with the case? In one of the defence blog it is said that one of the middle man has accused the current Modi govt that it has asked the Italian counterpart to provide a link between Gandhi family and the chopper scam and govt will try to find a positive solution for two Italian marines accused of killing Indian fishermen. Is it true?
secondally can you provide the details of defence deals which have been signed by this NDA govt and now only delivery is awaited?
Third after Rafale was selected for IAF, UPA govt was unable to final the deal for almost 2 year, now same is happening with present govt and still no deal. Why?
Fourth, why is Indian govt so desperate for this Rafale deal? If IAF is short of aircrafts and French are demanding high cost then shouldn't the Indian govt. put pressure on French govt by showing or start dealing with other companies or Eurofighter for deal?
Fifth, this govt came to power by playing with the sentiments of retired defence personal by promising OROP within 100 days, and now almost 18 months have passed and still no sign of OROP?

dushyant hardaha said...

any info on status of AAA procurement
i heard
india is going to purchase rheinmetall skyshield

Kaustav Bhattacharya said...

Respect Boss... Right as usual on the figure of 300+ Su30MKI for the IAF

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

As predicted earlier, US is starting the butcher work. First step to give autonomy for Syrian Kurds. Later Syria will be divided into 3 country. Kurds, Sunni & Shia+Alawite+Minorities.

In syrian conflict Net looser will be turkey. Modern day othaman Sultan is going to loose more. Already Russia is squeezing the Turks.

Please give your comments in recent Syrian Geo-Political war.

Thanks in Advance.
Senthil Kumar

Rajesh Mishra said...

Kurdish are converting back fast in to Yezidi, Zoroaster and even Christianity. They were always of opinion that whenever Muslam degenerates in to terrorism kind of things, then they will go back to their old better believes and practices. Actually US, Russia and Israel should allow and support the build up of the long awaited United Kurdish Republic albeit in certain steps.

dushyant hardaha said...

can you throw some light of this

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

I checked several sources so this is not a typo. Boeing says they can sell F 22 to India. US laws prevents its export but obviously Boeing knows that as well & despite that made this statement.

It makes sense. If India purchases the F-22 the procurement price for the USAF will also go down.

Please share your views.

Siddharth said...

@ Vikram

How Boeing can sell F-22 when OEM is Lockheed Martin.

Anonymous said...

Subho said -

@Vikram .... LOL , the F-18 is hardly the F-22 ! Besides, as SiD noted - the F-22 was made by Lockheed Martin + the F-22 production line was shut down in 2010 & will cost billions to just retool/reopen. Plus any such sales have to be aproved bu Congress since sale of the F-22s to any foreign country is foirbidden by Federal law.

D Joshi said...

Prasun, you mentioned in one of your posts that LEDS-150 was installed on T-90 of Indian army. There has been no reports of this anywhere else, no pictures (wasn't visible on T-90 of Republic Day parade) and SIPRI database doesn't show any such purchase.
Can you shed more light on the issue? Do Indian tanks have any active protection system?

A.Patel said...

How some had predicted, Baloch only 50% of population at the moment and soon to be less than 20%.

and some interesting thoughts from Samir Saran and Abhijnan Rej

Vikram Guha said...

@ Siddharth,

After the USAF rejected Boeings YF-23 in favor of Lockheeds YF-22, Boeing teamed up with Lockheed to develop the F-22. For example, according to Boeing, they built the wings and aft fuselage, including the structures necessary for engine and nozzle installation, and was responsible for avionics integration, 70 percent of mission software, the training system, the life support and fire protection systems, and the pilot and maintenance training systems.

To answer your question its neither Boeing nor Lockheed who will sell. Its the US Govt. Export rule revision in the US is long pending.

Also,like I said in my previous post if India purchases the F-22 the overall production cost will also fall thereby making it affordable for the US as well as any of the US allies who may be interested in buying it.

In the past Australia, Japan, UK and Israel had all tried to purchase the F-22 but word on the street is the numbers required by them was quite small(>20) which would not have resulted in a huge drop in production cost.Consequently production was not restarted.

Boeing obviously made the statement about a possible sale of F-22 to India knowing fully well what they were talking about.

fire power said...

namaskar dada, shandaar zabardast zindabad. Amazing article. I just wanted to ask you that why you said in last thread replying a query that road for China ahead is difficult and India can play Tiwan card? Plz explain that how China's road ahead is tough and how India can play Tiwan card? Thanks in advance Murali

Gessler said...

Prasun ji, what do you think of IAF's future transport aircraft fleet given latest developments?

1) The MTA project doesn't seem to be getting anywhere, differences between the Indian & Russian side regarding the engine of choice appears to be holding up the project to some extent if media reports are to be believed. If MTA is cancelled on these lines, I suppose IAF will have no choice but go for the method you proposed - licensed production of C-130Js and development of MRO hub. I believe IAF itself will need a minimum of 40 Super Hercules if that happens?

2) Do you see a requirement for turboprop refueling aircraft in IAF/IN? We might need those if we want to refuel choppers mid-air. If C-130J production is okayed, I believe the KC-130J tanker versions will also have a market in India?

3) Are you sure Boeing can deliver any additional C-17s now? I remember you saying something about Boeing maintaining enough parts & tooling to produce few more C-17s even after production line closed. But so far IAF seems absolutely silent on additional C-17s.

So what could we get if more C-17s are not an option? The Ilyushin-476?

4) Do you have any information about the Ilyushin-106 heavy-lift aircraft? It was the Soviet equivalent to the C-17A and as per some sources I've heard, Russia is still working on that project, and that Il-476 is only a stop-gap measure for RusAF till the Il-106 is ready.

5) Any progress on the AWACS-India project? Did DRDO/LRDE start developing the radar as yet or are they still on the drawing board?

6) During a speech by former DRDO chief Dr. VK Saraswat at IIT-Bombay, some slides were shown as part of a bigger presentation - in those slides it was revealed that the Agni-6 ballistic missile will have a range of 5,000km and a payload of a whooping 3,000kg!

Your thoughts on those numbers??

7) Any progress on BrahMos-II, Nirbhay, LRCM, other cruise/standoff missile projects?

Thank you in advance, sirji

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,

Maybe, these are the few reasons for government of India going slow on listing the PSUs on the
bourses -


Ram Bharadwaj said...


Bharat Karnad (known baiter of RAFALE) in his blog has one revelation and another suggestion.

- Revealing that FGFA in weeks and RAFALE going nowhere

and suggesting that IN buy more used TU-142.

Whats your take on this?

Anonymous said...

what are you thoughts about no pakis action. Is there no solid proof otherthan a phone call?


Jon said...

Interesting: Parrikars comments on Aap Ki Adalat

Anonymous said...

-Subho said

Prasun, now that the LCA has had its first test for the Derby BVR, can you confirm whether the Tejas will get the nextgen Derby-ER (100Km range) or the existing Derby (~50Km range) missiles.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: The IAF is only going by the book. A fast-jet test-pilot cannot be expected to become a test-pilot for a business jet or a transport aircraft. ASTE therefore maintains a pool of platform-specific test-pilots. One cannot expect a test-driver for a Ferrari to double up as a test-driver for the TATA Nano.

BTW, the first 3 of 6 E/LM-2138 counter-mortar locating radars have arrived for delivery to the BSF.

To ANUP: It will take at least another 3 years for the HTT-40 BTT to acquire a certificate of airworthiness. Let’s wait & see when this happens.

To Yudhvir Mahajan: Unlike China, India does not have to face the prospect of her SLOCs being blocaded by any naval superpower. That’s why India is not reqd to do what China has been & is doing.

To RAVI: Of course the Rafale deal is irreversible. Jaitapur PWRs have nothing to do with this deal.

To RAJESH MISHRA: Only four Su-35s, four Su-34s, four Su-30SMs & eight Sy-24Ms have been deployed in Syria by Russia.

To RAHUL: The Italian court has already ruled that there was no scam with the AW-101 purchase. Since then, has anyone from anywhere come forward with any clinching evidence to prove the Italian court’s verdict wrong? Even you & I can make any number of accusations or insinuations, to prove them in a court of law is an altogether different ballgame. And what makes you ASSUME that the French are charging high-costs for the Rafale? If that was the case, then why did Egypt & Qatar go for the Rafale?

To KAUSTAV BHATTACHARYA: VMT, but wait for the figure to reach the 350 mark.

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: Observe the apertures of that contraption carefully & you will be MAWS-like sensors, i.e. it is an early-warning system designed to warn the tank’s occupants of approaching wire-guided or IR-guided ATGMs. As for AAA, in today’s world, cannon-based AAA systems are not reqd. SR-SAMs & MR-SAMs are enough to do a far better job.

To VIKRAM GUHA & MAGICBULLET: Neither the F/A-22 nor the F/A-18E/F will ever be acquired by anyone in India. I had already stated several times with examples that NEVER believe the veracity of any news-report that contains too main conditionalities, i.e. ifs, buts, cans & coulds.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To D JOSHI: What I had said was that the LEDS-150 was selected & tested on an Indian T-90S way back in 2009. No orders for LEDS-150 have been placed as yet because the mid-life upgrade of the first 310 imported T-90S MBTs has not yet been approved by the MoD.

To A PATEL: 1) Interestingly, only local Pakistanis (I.e. Punjabis) are having wet-dreams about transforming Gwadar into another Shenzhen. Not a single Chinese citizen has so far made any such claim. 2) Intellectual daydreaming doesn’t get anyone anywhere. An elementary check will reveal that China has never built enduring or permanent overland transportation routes with any country with which Beijing has had territorial disputes. And why so? Again, elementary: such routes require CIQ facilities to be established on either side of a demarcated & delineated international border. And since such facilities cannot be built on either side of the Sino-Indian LAC (since the LAC is only a ceasefire line & not a permanent mutually recognised boundary), trade & commerce through overland routes too can’t be conducted. Therefore, a silk road-based economic belt fromn China traversing through India is an impossibility.

To FIREPOWER/MURALI: VMT. China will no longer have it easy inside India as far as trade & commerce goes. By playing the Taiwan Card, I mean going on an overdrive & attracting Taiwanese FDI in strategic sectors. Both Japan & Taiwan nowadays feel a lot more comfortable doing business with India than with China.

To GESSLER: 1) When the ASQR for the IL-214 MRTA was framed, it included the development of a turbofan. At that time, the IAF had ASSUMED that the turbofan would have FADEC, but this wasn’t mentioned in the joint R & D contract. Now the Ruskies are saying that a version of the PS-90A engine will suffice, but this engine doesn’t have FADEC. The IAF on the other hand under a revised ASQR wants a FADEC-equipped turbofan solution. The best solution will therefore be to power the IL-214 MRTA with CFM56 turbofans, just as the Ruskies had consented earlier for export IL-76MDs & IL-78s to be powered by CFM56 engines. But accepting turbofans without FADEC is not a choice. It’s like asking one to buy an automobile with carburetor, instead of direct fuel-injection. 2) Turboprop AAR platforms are reqd only for refuelling helicopters. Not for combat aircraft. 3) Why not? The USAF itself is likely to ask Boeing for additional C-17As in future & so the final-assembly line will most likely be re-opened. 4) It is meant to be something similar to the C-17A. 5) What??? How much time is being taken to develop the EMB-145I? More than a decade? So, how much time will it take to develop a more complex AEW & CS platform? 6) Fantasy slide. Logic dictates that if a SLBM with 6,500km-range can be developed, then it should also be developed in a land-mobile configuration since any SLBM is far more compact than any ICBM. 7) Nothing new to write about.

To GANESH: Those are hardly good reasons. Instead, these DPSUs are being condemned to licence-build imported systems & sub-systems & only 1% of their product ranges are indigenously developed & built. New product development & product innovations are almost absent.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: LoLz! Entities afflicted with terminal stupidity! If this entity is willing to foot the bill from his own pockets for restarting the production line for Tu-142Ms & that for its engines & also pay for the per-hour operating costs of such an aircraft fleet, then by all means buy the Tu-142Ms.

To GURU: Plenty of undeniable proof is available, if the Pakistani joint investigation team (JIT) decides to visit India. The NIA already has fingerprints & DNA samples to give & several types of other material evidence.

To SUBHO: It will be the Derby-ER. That’s the reason why the IAF & In had insisted on the EL/M-2032 MMR have a max target detection range of 120km & max target tracking range of 100km.

TROYLER said...

Sir what if I tld you you were barking up the wrong tree with the Rafale and the most Rafales we will ever get is 36? Even that seems unlikely.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To TROYLER: Who is barking up what, why, where, when & how will become all too evident in the near future & only then will it be appropriate to draw any conclusions or inferences in this matter. If you still persist in counting the chickens before they're hatched & refuse to believe what's been said/stated on-the-record by both the French President & Indian PM about the Rafale MMRCA procurement, there's nothing anyone can do anything about it.

Gessler said...

Prasun ji, what do you make of the evolving situation in Syria? Do you think it's possible for Turkey to make a ground offensive there? Some say that Russian deployments of Su-35 are in preparation for a conflict with Turkish forces.

Magicbullet said...

Thanks Sirji. So the cabinet shakeup is not happening anytime soon.differed till the budget I presume..

Arpit Kanodia said...


I read the book you suggested The China Pakistan Axis. It is wonderful book.

But I have a question, after such misdeeds of China & Pakistan to contain India, isnt this definitely a right time to drop One China Policy, and open an Embassy in Taiwan.

Including starting full fledged strategic & military relations with Taiwan, Japan & Vietnam? There should be some score settling with Chinese.

Kaustav Bhattacharya said...

The truth abut DPSU manufacturing with screwdriver tech and wasteful manpower public sector sarkari naukri. Fortunately GOI and MOD saw the light with the Rafael.

It should not only be about creating cushy Government Jobs with spoilt employees working only on overtime and not normal duty hours. It is not only HAL. The high cost and inefficiency of manpower is reflected at MDL too and other DPSUs/PSUs. Of course developing modern manufacturing process and efficient line assembly techniques goes hand in hand with Manpower and Vendor development.

We failed with HF-24/Marut, maybe we will learn to develop ourselves with LCA/Tejas and ensure continuous process of development and innovation in technology.

And just Maybe pigs will learn to fly & the horse to sing with India seriously investing in education for its young and pure science and research to develop an environment based on which the country can finally stand on it's own.

Your so-true oft-stated posts on these matters hit us with the bitter truth hard.

Vikram Guha said...


(1) Thanks for letting us know that the ELM-2138M Green Rock has arrived. So once the Green Rock sends the incoming threat data what rockets will the BSF use in order to intercept incoming rockets & artillery shells?

(2) Will you please provide an update on the EMALS discussion between India & US?

(3) Fincanteri was chosen as the partner for P 17A. Why was Fincanteri chosen instead of any other foreign firm?


joydeep ghosh said...

@prasun da

1. The answer you gave to #APatel regarding chinas roads also means the road built by China in 1959 connecting Xinjiang and Tibet is also illegal and India can legally at ask for its demolition

2. you said to my answer regarding China taking real estate north of Gilgit is not an option but AFAIK China has acquired land from Bhutan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Thailand giving up only against Vietnam, Russia, your view

3. You have said that S4/5/6 will be 20k ton SSBNs means in the league of Borei SSBNs powered by a 190 MW nuke reactor each (my logic says such boats should have 1 fuel lasting lifetime) but India or Russia both possibly dont have such tech so now what can be done

4. If S4/5/6 will be 20k ton SSBNs my logic says they will have 16-20 silos for SLBM launch which also means each SLBM will carry max 3 MIRVd nuke warhead (my logic) it also means 48X3 = 144 warheads should be with IN (unless GoI decides against) that also states that India has enough nuke material for upto 180 warheads (may be 30 with IAF), your view

5. How many V22 & E2D will India buy, if at all

6. do you think there is need for aerial refueler for helos by IAF/IN/IA if so which will be it


Joydeep Ghosh

Anonymous said...


I rememebr reading here your predictions of 189 rafaels. When, how will this ever happen?


Gessler said...

Your opinion, sir ji?

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

I am asking a somewhat DIFFERENT type of question

Most guys here ask questions about EQUIPMENT
I want to know about the Type of WAR that can HAPPEN on the
the RANN of KUTCH Terrain

We have never heard of Any Army exercise in that Area

Can any HEAVY equipment such as Tanks ; BMPs or Artillery Guns
move on that Marshy Land

Can a Truck carrying soldiers move on that Land

If Not ; then what kind of battles will we see in that Area

Will it be Only Air and Missile strikes

So if Sindh province has to be attacked ;
Will the Indian Army have to move in from the Rajasthan Border

Please dont get Angry with my Question

I am a Curious person by Nature ; LOLZ

vrp said...

Sir your views on this post
is the EMALS offered is a trap to sell India the F35C, by deleting the option of FGFA and Rafale ?

In your views which aircraft should IN select for the INS vishal?

What is the development in the THAAD deal with USA?

what is the option for India to neutralize Nasar missile during the war?

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Syrian War going to become More Bloody

Breaking Syria

As predicted earlier, US is starting the butcher work. First step to give autonomy for Syrian Kurds. Later Syria will be divided into 3 country. Kurds, Sunni & Shia+Alawite+Minorities.

In syrian conflict Net looser will be turkey. Modern day othaman Sultan is going to loose more. Already Russia is squeezing the Turks.

Recent Events

Saudi Arabia Plan to send Army to Syria.

Iran threatens Saudi

Do you think Saudi-Iran War will is going to happen?. Please give your comments in recent Syrian Geo-Political war.

Thanks in Advance.
Senthil Kumar

Lingaraj said...

Troyler Sir what if I tld you you were barking up the wrong tree with the Rafale and the most Rafales we will ever get is 36? Even that seems unlikely"".
Firstly what if you told? He should have said STFU. Secondly, when he realised he was barking up the wrong tree, he would lift his hind leg, marked up the one you are on, sniff the air and move on to the right one! LOLZZZZ

Arpit Kanodia said...


Firstly, I believe more in the word from our PM than any blog or site or news. Secondly, if people unable to understand meaning of including Rafale in Joint Statement & in press briefing, described whole situation by PM himself ( not by CAS or RM), then no one on Planet Earth can help these chaps.

Thirdly, as PKS sir say writing on the wall, but I add in this statement.

This is writing on the wall in English, but these kinds of chaps thinking it is in Chinese, and that is the height of ignorance. It is decency of PKS that he still describing the situation instead of Shut the Fuck Up!!

abs said...

@Prasun Da
Apropos the three likeliest of scenarios you listed some days back upon which an India-Pakistan war could possibly take place; Don't you think India should go for the jugular and instead go to war with the political objective of reclaiming the entire Azad Kashmir and G&B?

The international situation favours India. LoC is at any rate a ceasefire line, and even the geopolitical legalities are in favour of India. A war cannot be waged often, so India should seize the initiative right at once when the opportunity knocks it's door.

Magicbullet said...

Sir . What do you think will be the implications of Headly disposing to the Mumbai court...this along with the timings of the expose in NYT suggests interesting time s ahead...could you help connect the dots.

Shaji Pappan said...

@abs Then, why not go for their whole country and dismantle all their terror camps and ISI? Less radical provinces would eventually join and send democratic representatives, while the radical areas will be placed under strict military rule until they become 'sanitized'.

Their present gov't is already a failure, so it could only get better and would win support of the people.

And if possible, we need Aksai Chin back, too.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Is it true or just west want to stop the Indian Nuclear March. Please comment

Senthil Kumar

Prav said...

@Prasun I can't recall what your stance was on the "string of pearls" but apparently another pearl seems to have been plucked (In bangladesh).

Gopu said...

Syrian government trying to retake Aleppo... if they succeed it will be a step in the right direction.

What's worrying for me is if a Syrian-type civil war hits Pakistan in the not so far future...

RASAYAN said...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: Any act of direct invasion by Turkey of Syria will be an act of war as per UN resolutions & Turkey won’t dare take such a blatant step, rest assured.

To ARPIT KANODIA: That book provides only in-depth background information but lacks analysis for the future. For instance, China is getting itself sucked into an abyss by trying to play the role of a mediator between Afghanistan & Pakistan & labeling the Afghan Taliban as Afghanistan domestic opposition force. In doing so, it is automatically creating the grounds for the Uighur ETIM to stake claim as a domestic opposition force in Xinjiang as well. This contradiction in China’s stance will in future to be extremely painful & bloody for Beijing in the near future.

As for the CPEC, China knows only too well that ther safest overland transportation route to the Persian Gulf is via Xinjiang through Central Asia right down to southern Iran. Thus, Afghanistan & Pakistan are totally bypassed. China is also aware that KSA won’t allow Pakistan to link-up Gwadar with the IP pipeline & therefore Gwadar ceases to become an oil/gas storage hub. Thirdly, domestic opposition within Balochistan will only increase as more non-Baloch settlers converge in & around Gwadar. And finally, the Pakistanis themselves messed up the entire original concept of CPEC due to sheer greed. Here’s an eye-opening analysis of all the fuck-ups & obfuscations that have surfaced so far:

To KAUSTAV BHATTACHARYA & PRAV: This will prove to be even more illuminating:

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) Not to intercept, but to retaliate with counter-battery fire-assaults. 2) It has already been decided to incorporate E-MALS within IAC-2. 3) Because Fincantieri is a pioneer in the design, development & construction of all-composite sub-substructures for the interior bulkheads of warships. These are all spinoffs from the business of developing & building ocean-going cruiseliners. Fincantieri is a pioneer in all these areas.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Most untrue. Because the original survey maps produced by India till 1953 showed the Aksai China area as falling under an area that said ‘Boundary Undemarcated’. Blame Pandit ‘Chacha’ Nehru’ for it. 2) China already possesses the Shaksgam valley (part of the trans-Karakoram Tract) north of Gilgit-Baltistan as per the 1963 boundary agreement it inked with Pakistan. 3) Russia has developed lifelong PWRs. 4) S-4 will be the same as S-2/Arihant & S-3. The S-5/S-6/S-7 SSBNs will each have silos for 12 SLBMs. Each such SLBM will have 3 MIRVs.

To ARUN: Time will tell. Had already explained several times before how it will happen.

To VIJAY: What you need to grasp is the fact that after the 1972 Shimla Agreement, it was decided that India & Pakistan will never engage in military hostilities to settle disputes. What the legal interpretation of this means is that neither side will ever again attack one another across the international border. And that is the very reason why India desisted from upping the ante in 2002 during OP Parakram. But what it also means is that as per international law, both countries reserve the right to engage in hostilities across areas that are not defined as borders, like the LoC. Therefore, that, * only that area will be the place where any kind of military hostilities will take place. And that is precisely what PM NaMo was referring to when on December 15, 2015, addressing top army, navy and air force commanders on board the aircraft carrier, INS Vikramaditya, he observed, “At a time when major powers are reducing their forces and rely more on technology, we are still constantly seeking to expand the size of our forces. Modernisation and expansion of forces at the same time is a difficult and unnecessary goal. We need forces that are agile, mobile and driven by technology, not just human valour. We need capabilities to win swift wars, for we will not have the luxury of long drawn battles. We must re-examine our assumptions that keep massive funds locked up in inventories.”

This statement effectively means that the long-overdue overhaul of India’s joint warfighting doctrines have commenced & a strategic review is well underway. But I’m surprised & disappointed by the fact that none of the regular commentators in this blog have so far brought this to anyone’s attention, nor seem to have the enormity of this statement.

To VRP: E-MALS is not F-35 specific. It can launch any type of aircraft, even the MiG-29K & Rafale & anything else. Had already explained that before. Option to neutralise Nasr/Hatf-9? Very easy. Just locate their pre-surveyed launch-pads & knock out the TELs with Spice 2000 PGMs.

To MAGICBULLET & ABS: Will explain it all in great detail later tonight.

Murali said...

Namaskar Dada,
1-recently a news surfaced that Hilary Clinton and her office kept an eye on the news on Pakistani media channels. how do you see this?
2-which President in the united states of america will be good for India as per you?
3-is there any chance that IN may go for another Vikrant weight class aircraft carrier?
4-In an Indian TV show named Aap ki adalat, our RM said that he is doing what is needed to be done to respond Pakistan after Pathankot attack. how do you figure this out? what he was trying to say?

Thanks for replying.

joydeep ghosh said...

@Prasun da

1. sorry it forgot S2/3/4 are same but if S5/6/7 will carry only 12 silo then why will they be 20k ton similar to Borei that carries upto 16

2. Last week in the TimesNow program by Maroof Raza that had Manoj Joshi n Shushant Sarin the discussions were about how Pak has done demographic changes to the Gilgit Baltistan (in 2 of 3 districts demographics changed totally with sunni people from Pak punjab/KP) and they also discussed that how China is paranoid that Taliban influence will spill over from from Afghan and Pak into Xinjiang and China will do anything to stop it.

I suspect that China will repeat the Saksgham valley deal & place its men in Gilgit Baltistan keeping a hawk eye on whatever people in Gilgit Baltistan are doing just like its doing currently in Tibet

3. Some time back read that a ordinary soldier from IA had done done design changes to INSAS rifle (changed CG/center of gravity) that has given new life to the rifle and the new rifle is much lighter and easy to handle, know anything about it


Joydeep Ghosh

Dbas said...

How can China get to Iran, when there is rise of Islamic Insurgency and polictical instability in Tajikistan, Uzbecistan and Turkministan? Not only that, but there is no real network of road or passes that go from East to West. Knowing the Chinese, they will never take a side, shia or sunni. IF they go via, Iran you can bet they will lose lots of influence in sunni world and their network will be attacked by all. Who will guard this network? The USA/NATO armies used to pay Taliban to not attack their network. Then off course there is a risk that there will be sanctions? The best option is if the route comes via, india or bangledesh.

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Its very painful to wait for the Rafale deal to get final sign-off.
How long do we have to wait?

Can the Astra be available by the time Tejas MK1A gets into production ie., 2018 onwards?
Would like to know more details on Astra MK2 if you may please kindly share.

Also would love to have an analysis of Astra 2 vs MICA IR and Derby ER given that Tejas will have a hybrid 2052 AESA radar.

Thanks in advance.

AniluvG said...

Dear Prasunda

This statement effectively means that the long-overdue overhaul of India’s joint warfighting doctrines have commenced & a strategic review is well underway.

Your ability to to decipher things is mind boggling. Request you to elaborate on the expected outputs of the whole exercise or may i say the ideal output.


Arpit Kanodia said...


Your View on this

Suddenly all hell broke loose on Pakistan & China, and India able to link 26/11 with Sarkari Jihad & Hafiz Saeed.

Gopu said...


An Indian company now owns Safran. So a little bit of Rafale is now Indian.

2)Interestingly enough, I did post on the commander's conference on December 15 and you had replied that "old mindsets take time to change" so I was disappointed that not much progress on the ground was happening. However, now there appears to be forward momentum in this area, and if you could please enlighten us that would be wonderful. Also if there are plans to expedite the Strike corp's much needed upgrade that would be great.

Gopu said...

3)You had mentioned that Astra will not be compatible with Tejas due to the fact that a Russian seeker cannot be mated to an Israeli radar. However, shouldn't Israeli and NATO (France and US, specifically) countries' equipment be compatible with one another? Therefore, what should be compared is the marginal cost to modify Rafale or Tejas to allow a common missile among both versus the cost to maintain several different missiles that perform the same function (ex: ASRAAM for Jaguar, Python, MICA).


China planning a route through Iran now that they realized the futility of their Gwadar project.

lachit said...

hi prasun

long time and by the way a informative article from u thanks!!!

I wanted to ask this don't u think of the 3 services air-force and army r sort of clueless as to their requirements in keeping with the latest trends.
by requirements I meant low ticket, low cost, items/weapons/add-ons which can/will increase the lethality of existing weapon delivery platforms.

for ex. what is stopping the air-force to ask / collaborate with drdo to develop GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) type systems ( or atleast close to it) or even try making multiple ejector racks and integrate it to various platforms.

India buys a lot from Israelis but Indians cant seem to pick up the good habits/innovative ways of the Israelis.
the Israelis somehow manage to modify / install add-ons which increases the performance of the base platform way-over.

look at the upgraded T72s , it could have been upgraded much more comprehensively (BMS , LW system , drop in vehicle optronics ,more here an Indian company )making it into a very effective light tank which would have been effective for next 15-20 years at the least.

the guys in charge just want to get the job done somehow.
lolzz one of the side effects of reservation in jobs (especially R&D).

CSC said...

Name 's comment like all his comment is telling and a welcome way forward.?

The problem comes in implementation, years of no work by the upa regime have left behind a govt machinery that is taking even Namo years to get rolling.

Does not help that a large percentage of his ministry is full of in experienced people completely lacking in vision or even the ability to understand his vision.

Am looking forward to the last 2 years of his tenure to see real action

Also pls reply to this and add Imp points that I may have missed

How many super sukhois do u believe we will get inducted between 2018 and 2019.

How would u compare the super sukhoi 30mki and su 35 on the following

Actual RCS
Radar and irst


CSC said...

Oh and also Prasun, has Mr. Karnad completely lost it

He says in his article on the rafale
Since the rafale can't carry the brahmos we now have to wait for the yet untested meteor

Wait for a a2a missile to replace a a2s missile and forget the fact that an mrca is never meant to carry a heavy a2s missile anyway

Anonymous said...



yOUR ARTICLE clearly states that AEQUS bought SiRA group which supplies components to Dassault & Safran. In other words - SiRA is a SME supplier ( & that is exactly what it would be with annual Revs ~ $ 50M) to Safran. SAFRAN, on the other hand has annual revenues of $ 16-18 billion !

Gopu said...


Yes, I read that article hastily since I wanted to write something else down. Regardless, the fact of this acquisition cannot be construed in a negative manner whatsoever. Plus, the French defense ministry had to approve the deal, so it certainly is not insignificant.

Gopu said...

I should clarify that this isn't the ideal use of offset money, but fundamental economic reality dictates that offsets end up taking form along these lines. DDP-2016 (or DPP-2017, 2018, or whenever it comes out) changes this, though.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MURALI: 1) It will be done for any country whose TV channels openly telecast interviews given by the likes of Hafiz Saeed or Syed Salahuddin, since such interviews can later be used as evidentiary corroboration whenever a case in filed in any US court. 2) Anyone, because of the converging strategic interests of the US & India. Therefore, any US President will act in a presidential manner, i.e. safeguarding the supreme national interests of the US. 3) Nope. That chance was lost the moment the NDA-1 govt 12 years ago wrongly opted for importing INS Vikramaditya. 4) He was only saying what Lal Bahadur Shastri had said in early 1965 after the Rann of Kutch incident, i.e. India will strike back at a time & place of her own choosing.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) Go back to the thread of 2012 in which I had posted the illustration of the S-5 SSBN & all relevant info will be found there. 2) It won’t be possible in this day & age. A foreign military force will be at a distinct disadvantage when deployed there since the local natives of such areas will take advantage of the tyranny of the terrain & topography to wage a savage guerrilla war of attrition.

To DBAS: Really? How many terrorist incidents have taken place in these Central Asian Republics over the past 15 years? And China has already begun constructing roads through them on a East-West alignment through Xinjiang. As for Iran, just examine all that was discussed & finalized during Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Teheran & you will get the true picture. No one from NATO paid any Taliban for safeguarding the overland transportation routes, simply because all such freight-forwarding was done by the Pakistan military-owned National Logistics Cell (see: It was the NLC that was over-invoicing NATO & in turn passing on the protection money to the Taliban & this money was used to buy Pakistan-supplied weapons.

To VED: If Astra Mk1 cannot be integrated with the Tejas Mk1’s weapons management suite & the Targo HMDS, then of what use is it for any version of the Tejas? Astra Mk2 is a long way away.

To GOPU: The technical challenges of systems integration of weapons built to NATO specs & standards are indeed minimal, but the costs are prohibitive. Royalty fees for sharing IPR-related data is extremely high, be it when dealing with the West or with Russia. That’s the grim reality.

Meanwhile, do enjoy this drone-generated overview of Myanmar’s magnificent new Parliament complex:

Wonder why no one in India has the inclination or time for coming up with similar architectural marvels for housing academic institutions of excellence, & instead wasting time & money on building places of worship in Ayodhya & elsewhere.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LACHIT: VMT. How can the armed forces be expected to sort out their differences & respective reqmts unless they’re given clear, firm directions from above by their civilian masters? Surely one can’t expect the service chiefs to scan & read the minds of the civilian decision-makers. That’s why NaMo issued very clear guidelines last December & now matters will be far more simpler & far less complicated. And how can the IAF co-develop any weapon system when the IAF does not possess even an institute dedicated to studying & developing such concepts? Even the IN till this day does not have a dedicated academic facility devoted to nuclear reactor engineering & nuclear propulsion. As for learning from the Israelis, do watch this interesting debate:

To CSC: There’s no magic wand that will change prevailing mindsets overnight. And certainly not in 5 years, not with the existing crop of politicians across the spectrum. Super Su-30MKI will be marginally better than the Su-35 in timjes of reliability & performance, based on the former’s ASQR. As for someone having ‘lost it’, one can only lose something which one had before. But in the case, the person-in-question never had anything to lose in the first place, i.e. he was totally ‘khokla’ from the outset. That’s my personal POV.

To ABS: One goes for the jugular only when the adversary is left totally isolated & alienated from its own citizenry. That’s what had happened in 1971, & that’s what happened to Iraq & Libya, leading to the liberation/invading forces enjoying a virtual walkover. The same will happen to Pakistan, rest assured, especially within PoK inclusive of Gilgit-Baltistan. Just look at the virtual economic strangulation of Pakistan, the increasing unemployment rates, & the increasing rate of industrial closures. If China was indeed interesting in rescuing Pakistan, then it would have made some attempts in financial bailouts. But it has done no such effort nor will it ever will. Consequently, Pakistan is now engulfed within a perpetual debt-trap. The country’s civilian politicians know very well that all this is caused by the PA’s decision to run the country as a national security state & prevent its transition into a welfare state. Today, the NLC enjoys total monopoly in land transportation business, while the Fauji Foundation supplies all the country’s processed grains & cereals. It also builds & maintains Defence Housing estates. In other words, all the profitable revenue-earning businesses are owned & run by the country’s military, with nothing being left for the non-military working-class masses. This cannot go on & there will come a time when popular protests & uprisings will spread like wildfire across the country, especially if the IMF insists on imposing ever-stricter internal taxation regimes. That’s when the civilian politicians will start talking openly against the military, especially the PA, & its stranglehold over Pakistan’s economy. This civilian-military divide is already coming out in the open, & if India & Iran succeed in substituting all of Afghanistan’s existing imports from Pakistan, then that will be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back, sometime in 2018.

Over the past 7 days, several TV programme-anchors have been asking several retired Pak military officials why is it that if Pakistan has undeniable evidence about Indian support for the TTP or Baloch separatists, then why can’t they be made public? Why isn’t the world buying Pakistan’s PoV? And there’s no answer at all from any quarter to such questions. Instead, all that the ISPR can do is inspire & sponsor some ‘patriotic model Pakistani citizen’ to come out with such filth:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Didn’t I predict earlier that the future lies in unmanned autonomous multi-purpose naval vessels? Well, it’s already out for sale:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA & MAGICBULLET: What is going on now is the trial of Zabiuddin Ansari, a.k.a. Abu Jundal. David Coleman Headley (Dawood Gilani) is only providing corroborative evidence & this trial process will also be closely followed by the relatives of those 6 US citizens who were killed during 26/.11. The evidence of both Ansari & Gilani will also be used against Pakistan in the UN in future for designating Pakistan as a terrorist state. China will then find it impossible to counter the arguments emanating from both the Indian & US courts. At around the same time Afghanistan will proceed to the UNSC & complain about the PA’s conduct of OP Zarb-e-Azb & the resulting flight from Pakistan of all the TTP cadre-members & their Uzbek & Chechan brethren along with their familiers (totalling some 350,000 people in all). Which means Pakistan will be accused of actively & deliberately formenting terrorism inside Afghanistan. Already, Afghanistan has stated that it does not view Pakistan as a neutral party in the ongoing peace & reconciliation talks between Kabul & the Afghan Taliban. China too comes in that category because it is closely allied to Pakistan. Therefore, no one in the world today believes that the talks are ‘Afghan-led & Afghan-owned’, because in reality they are ‘Pakistan-driven & Pakistan-controlled’. Therefore, early last year itself, the US, Russia India & Iran had an understanding according to which, while the US will slow-down its exit from Afghanistan, the combine of India & Iran will step in to fill the gap. And how will this be done? Simple: just strengthen the Afghan economy & increase the resilience of the Afghan National Army & the Air Force. That’s the reason why the US didn’t object to India releasing funds for Chah Bahr way back in late 2013. Now the UAE too wants to part of this investment process with India’s help. Do read this:

And watch this interview of Dr Anwar Mohammed Gargash UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs at:

Emboldened by all this, Afghanistan has already begun decreasing its quantum of imports from Pakistan. By the year’s end, imports from Pakistan will be almost eliminated, thereby denying Pakistan any leverage that it may possibly expect to have now. Concurrently, the IMF is now increasing pressure on Pakistan to roll-back its nuclear WMD programmes. Already, Pakistan’s export revenue earnings-to-debt servicing ratio is terribly alarming & unsustainable—all due to the exorbitant costs of maintaining Pakistan’s nuclear WMD force-levels & support infrastructure. In addition, there’s the additional cost of raising new security forces to protect the in-country Chinese expatriates, increasing the FC’s size for internal security duties in Balochistan, & the cost of sustaining OP Zarb-e-Azb. Since beggars can’t be choosers, IMF donor-nations are now squeezing Pakistan’s balls like never before. Even the UN Secretary-General 2 days ago stated that Pakistan now accounts for the highest number of human resource contributors to ISIS. I don’t blame the Pakistanis at all: when they face chronic unemployment inside their country, they will naturally gravitate towards anyone who pays such recruits Pak Rs.50,000 a month. To top it all, Bangladesh is now expected to go to the UN for convening a war crimes tribunal for trying all PA officers that stand accused of having committed human rights violations in East Pakistan since 1970. All in all therefore, a pretty grim fate now awaits the state that stupidly & wrongly decided in 1940 to create a ‘fortress of Islam’. Allah indeed works in mysterious ways!

Prasun K. Sengupta said...


R. Sarath Kumar said...

Prasun sir,

When are the AH-64E and CH-47F likely to arrive in India? Also, is India likely to get any other version of H-47? Like MH47 in future?

VMT in advance, sir
Sarath Kumar R.



1.Back in 2012 you had written extensively about the S 80 Super Scorpene submarine from Navantia that the Indian Navy was interested in

Is the IN still interested in procuring the S 80 Super Scorpene?

2. IAF is finalizing the ISTAR aircraft procurement proposal. Apparently Indian Coast Guard will use same platform. In your opinion which platforms are likely to be considered?

Thank You

Dbas said...

I am sorry sir but you are incorrect:

USA, UK as well as germany were paying off the taliban and other groups not to attack their transport. It was well know in Afghanistan circles.

You say there are no issues in the CARs. Well Tajiskistan has just started trying to get men to shave their beards...why do you think they are doing this?

The commander of the Uzbeckistan SF joined the ISIS with some of his men. This was in the news. Fergana area of uzbeckistan is a hotbed of islamic insurgency.

I am not aware of any china road projects through these countries to iran. I read recently that china wants iran to become part of its road and rail project. Not sure how the linking would happen. But to know the issues in CARS please just google it.

Rohan said...

Prasun Sir, Its is said by alien theorists that the aliens did the genetic engineering to the mankind and by this way they helped start the modern human race. Now with the new discoveries in genetics like CRISPR, do you think that in future the humans will became capable and start producing designer babies?

Anonymous said...

@ Prasunda
Has the Tejas Mk2 project been abandoned?

Gessler said...

To Anon @ 8:27PM

Yes, it has been abandoned. In it's place, the IAF has requested ADA to design an advanced version of the Focke-Wulf FW190. For this purpose, HAL has been directed by the MoD to set fire to all LCA Tejas production facilities, a special cell of R&AW has also be given precise directives from the PM's office to assassinate anyone even remotely related to the LCA program as the agencies are adamant toward a new 'start afresh' initiative.

Meanwhile, it has been suggested that it would be advisable to seek German assistance in the design of the aircraft, because after all the Fw190 was a German aircraft. To this end, all leading technological & medical institutes and universities across India were asked to lend a hand in a national effort to bring Kurt Tank back to life.

On the hand hand, RSS & VHP have gathered all prominent Swamis and Babas from across India to perform a Maha Shanti-Puja for Adolf Hitler's aatma, worried that his soul could become restless knowing that one of his leading aircraft-designers is being used to design planes for an inferior race. Some spritiual gurus argue that this Puja should have been performed back when HF-24 Marut was being developed, they add that HAL's poor performance in following years is due to Hitler's restless soul haunting their offices.

Anonymous said...

Rebels from Uzbekistan & Tajikistan in Syria, in their thousands.


CSC said...


Thank you for ur answer but it left me wanting more... U r one the few credits source on Indian defense foras...

U did ans my last point but I am sure u can ans all the others... Reporting for ur detailed reply... Thanks in advance...

Rcs comparsion of su 35 and super sukhoi 30mki
Radar comparision
Wvr and bvr missiles carried
Ecm capabilities
IRST capability

Anonymous said...

benefits for india, are any of these true?


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LADOO: What's the use of raising new formations manned by tens of thousands of security personnel when the sources/factories for churning out terrorists & extreme theocratic mindsets are left intact? This will be perfect recipe for the ultimate disaster. What needs to be done is to take away all religious elements from statecraft & politics, like Turkey did under Kamal Ataturk. Which in turn means Pakistan has to adopt a new secular constitution. But this is impossible to do so under the present-day political dispensation in that country. So, without tackling the root causes that breed terrorist/extreme mindsets, all talk of increasing economic investments etc etc is just like applying temporary band-aids. As for the TTP, its cadres won't attack heavily defended targets, but rather focus on soft targets to cause maximum human casualties. Can't blame them, for they too were dehumanised for the past 68 years & were left as anthropological preserves & were never treated as part of the national mainstream. And since 2004 they have been subjected to the most inhuman type of combat through the usage of armed drone-strikes that have killed hundreds of their children. No one in their right mind therefore should expect these tribesmen to just sit tight & do nothing. They will continue exacting revenge throigh generational blood-feuds.

To CSC: As time goes by, newer innovative solutions will be available, like all-composite radar-absorbing materials already developed for the T-50 PAK-FA/FGFA & these will find application on the Super Su-30MKI too. As for MMRs, the AESA-MMR on the Super Su-30MKI will obviously be superior to the Irbis-E PESA-MMR. WVR & BVRAAM capabilities of both platforms will be identical, as will the HMDS & IRST sensor. EW suite on the Super Su-30MKI will be superior due to the Israeli content. But above all, the Super Su-30MKI's two-man aircrew will be capable of undertaking interleaved operations concurrently, which the Su-35's single pilot cannot achieve.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Of course these rebels are all outside their homelands/fatherlands/motherlands. None of them are engaging in any mischief inside their own countries of origin, meaning that these countries have an extremely effective internal security mechanism in place.

To ROHAN: What has been discovered to date by human beings is only the tip of the iceberg, & much more needs to be done. Here is another example of a recent discovery that will help explore revolutionary applications of electro-gravitics & inter-dimensional travel:

To DBAS: You seem to be judging the book by its cover. Do take the time to read that news-report in detail & then go here:

It is clearly mentioned that it is the warlords that nominally operate under private security companies licensed by the Afghan Ministry of Interior. In other words, convoy protection functions are outsourced to these warlords, who are also provincial governors. None of them are Afghan Taliban insurgents. Within the CARs & Xinjiang, almost all undesirable elements are operating OUTSIDE their countries of origin & there’s no unrest or upheaval within these CARs, this being an indication of their highly effective internal security maintenance practices. Lastly, regarding transportation connectivity between China & Iran via the CARs, do read the following:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: 1) The Navantia-specific S-80 Scorpene SSK has since been superceded by more advanced derivatives of the Scorpene from DCNS, all offered with various types of AIP solutions. Therefore, it makes sense for the IN to stick with DCNS. 2) IAF’s ISTAR platform will play a completely different role over land from similar platforms of either the IN or ICGS that will be reqd to operate over water. As for the type of platform, the Bombardier 5000 aircraft is the best option, since two such ISTAR platforms are already operational with the ARC.

To SARATH KUMAR R: They will all arrive within 36 months of contract signature. There are no plans now for acquiring MH-47E or any other variant of the CH-47.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The Sherp 4 x 4 ATV’s wheels on land move more like tank treads, locking up or slowing up one side to turn rather than actually tilting the wheels. The huge tires are self-inflating and patented, and feature paddle-like treads for propelling it over water. The 2,866-lb machine is propelled by a 1.5-litre Kubota inline-4 turbodiesel engine. It makes a not-so-robust 44hp, but no worries, as the gearing helps it get by. It tops out at 27.9mph on land, and less than 4 mph in the water.

Each Uran-9 combat vehicle is armed with a 2A72 30mm automatic cannon, a 7.62mm machine gun and M120 Ataka anti-tank guided missiles, giving the machines a significant punch. The inclusion of the Ataka missiles gives the diminutive robot the capability to engage and destroy the most modern battle tanks from ranges as great as 8km. The robots are also fitted with an array of sensors—including a laser warning system and target detection, identification and tracking equipment. The Uran-9 system is not just a single vehicle. It’s a complete system that can be deployed with an infantry unit. The system consists of two robotic reconnaissance/fire support vehicles, a truck to carry those robots and a mobile command post.

Here's what it's like dodging 6 missiles in an F-16:

And finally...

Vikram Guha said...

Thanks for clarifying PrasunDa.

(1) So why does the BSF/Army not intercept incoming rockets,artillery and only rely on counter-battery fire-assaults? A C-RAM system should be purchased.

(2) In reply to a fellow poster you stated that IN or ICGS ISTAR platform will be different from the IAF. So which platforms available globally are suited for the IN?

(3) Is India still willing to purchase the Global Hawk and if yes will it be used by the Navy or the Air Force?

Thanks again

Gessler said...

Prasun ji,

What do you make of Indian warship exports? Any new possibilities or deals on the anvil?

1) Check this out -

Do you think any Indian-designed warship could meet those requirements? With modifications if necessary? Ofcourse it all depends on whether the shipyards & MoD are actually planning on export.

2) What's the progress on India-GCC defence cooperation? The latest update is that we will ink a civil nuclear agreement with UAE during their Prince's visit. Can you give a rundown from your side what this agreement could lead to?

3) I'm still waiting for us to build additional GSAT-7-like sats with missile warning capabilities and more RISAT-1 types. Both for us and for export to GCC.

4) Do you have anything on ISRO's proposed Heavy Launch Vehicle (HLV)-class designs? Those seem ambitious as well as awesome.

Bottomline is, I think it's high time you did a thread on ISRO and CNSA's spacefaring capabilities. When you have the time & the mood, ofcourse.

Thanks in advance, Sir ji.

Siddharth said...

Prasun da,

What's "stealth type vision camera" IRDE claim to developed mentioned in the above article.

Kunal Jadhav said...

Since India has already ordered 99 F414 engines from GE, Will they be used in LCA mk1 of navy and air forces ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: And don't overlook this:

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) may have to delay the first test flight of its experimental Reusable Launch Vehicle-Technology Demonstrator (RLV-TD) spaceplane. The unmanned sub-orbital spacecraft, which is similar in design to the US Air Force's X-37B, was scheduled to be launched in February, but technical difficulties may put back the flight to the first week of April. A minor leak in the flight systems of the RLV-TD led to the potential setback. K Sivan, director of the Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC), where the craft is being developed, told the paper that the spacecraft needed to be reassembled, which could cause a significant delay if more problems occur. The RLV-TD is a two-stage scaled prototype of India's Avatar spacecraft designed to drastically reduce the cost of launching payloads into orbit from US$5,000 per kg (2.2 lb) to US$500. RLV-TD is a winged technology demonstrator for testing flight and propulsion systems that will allow the completed Avatar to return to Earth for a controlled landing like a conventional aircraft. A series of flights of the will test the RLV-TD's ability to carry out hypersonic flight, landings, return flight, and scramjet propulsion before a full-sized vehicle is built. The demonstrator will lift off atop a conventional rocket booster, which will accelerate it to Mach 5 (3,800 mph, 6,125kph). After separation, the winged craft will coast to an altitude of 100km (62 mi) before making a controlled reentry. When the atmosphere is thick enough, the flight surfaces take over and the RLV-TD will glide to the recovery area for a splashdown in the Bay of Bengal. The sea recovery is necessary because the spaceplane requires a 5km- (3.1 mi-) long runway, which India does not currently possess. This is the third delay, which had an initial launch date in mid-2015. The RLV-TD consists of a winged space plane-like part rigged atop a booster rocket. The rocket will go up to a height of 70km and release the spaceplane portion which will glide down to earth. In the first test, the spaceplane will glide into a landing in the Bay of Bengal. RLV-TD will be the first of a series of tests planned by ISRO before venturing to build the actual vehicle. A reusable launch vehicle will cut mission costs considerably for ISRO.

To KUNAL JADHAV: F414IN56 will go on-board Tejas Mk.2. Tejas Mk.1 will have only F404IN20.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SIDDHARTH: It is a stabilised optronic sensor that can be used for perimeter security, border surveillance as well as battlefield surveillance. It has been under development for the past 7 areas & I had uploaded its brochures in the DEFEXPO 2012 & 2014 expo threads. Since it is a passive sensor it does not give out any active emissions. Nothing stealthy about it (LoLz).

TheHundred said...

yes! i second Gessler's request for a thread on ISRO, Please.

Plus i would like to hear if there's any updated on New super Su30mki turbofans with increased Total service life
"two uprated Lyulka AL-31FP turbofans. The AL-31FP, presently rated at 126kN with afterburning, will offer 20% more power when uprated by NPO Saturn—its manufacturer--and will have a total technical service life of 6,000 hours, instead of the present 2,000 hours. The uprated engine will also employ a larger diameter fan, redesigned key hot-end components and cooling system technologies to permit reduced thrust lapse rates with altitude, which in turn will permit supercruise flight regimes"


Lingaraj said...

It's quite obvious the way Gessler adds Ji at the end that Gessler is a Punyaji as Bengalis term it. Why then such reference to Albrecht Hermann Gessler? Just curious

Dbas said...

Thank you fro your feedback.

They are getting very serious about this, taking it above politics. I have to admire them on this, they are like a bull dog, that gets a bone in its mouth. The chiness, this new president is having big big impact on this. what is his thinking? is he making sure that we have an enemy? I dont get it. if the route was in india it make more money.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

"To GESSLER: Any act of direct invasion by Turkey of Syria will be an act of war as per UN resolutions & Turkey won’t dare take such a blatant step, rest assured."

In your previous comment to GESSLER you told Turkey will not invade. But this 21st Century Othaman Sultan decided to invade Syria. Nobody in today's world is worried or fear for UN Resolutions.

Turks are saying they are going to defend. But Defend meaning in today's world is Offense. If Syrian Baser Al Assad win in this war, it is defeat to Turks which egotistical Turks will never accept.

So sound of War Drums is getting higher.

Please give your opinion on Turkey invasion of Syria & Beyond.

Thanks in Advance.
Senthil Kumar

Gessler said...


What is meant by "Punyaji?".

Believe it or not, I read about Albrecht Gessler in a William Tell story in TINKLE magazine when I was a kid, hence the name :D

Anonymous said...

dear prasun,

bel india has reported of developing through walls radar and ground penetrating radar , is that the one used to locate the trapped indian soldier in the avalanche. what are the new radars developed by drdo

what is the status on excalibur , insas and mciws.

thank you


Dear Prasun,

I would like ask the same vintage question. Which one is superior: MiG 29 or F - 16??? In its current form and set of ammunition can the IAF's MiG 29 defeat PAF's F - 16???

Arpit Kanodia said...


What's your view about global economic prospect and India?

Brazil posted a 10.3% of fiscal defecit & almost lost 25% of GDP since 2012.

Within 2 years, Russia dropped from $2 tn economy to $1.2 tn. Many companies are on verge of bankruptcy in Russia. China is cooling down & realigning itself.

Actually, whole emerging world is on downward trend.

But India still growing, almost 75% increase in FDI, & 150% increase of investment in greenfield projects. This is hard to digest, but still a reality.

What's your say on this?

john said...


An excellent tech for our rural population.

पीयूष दास said...

as you predicted sir

RASAYAN said...

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,

Even Turkey is able to make its own UAV. How long we can wait for India's own UAV from DRDO?

Please Comment.

Senthil Kumar

Lingaraj said...

Hard to do the pronunciation in English typing Herr Gessler. I believe when Punjabi people said "Poonyabdi"(ਪੰਜਾਬ ਦੇ) sounded like पैंयाजी which is what Bengalis call mainly Sikhs but also sardarji is another word. Not derogatory by any means.
Interesting that you read about him- 99% people would have no idea.

Gessler said...


Hmm...good to know. But I can't understand some of the text you posted. I'm actually from
the South (Andhra), but I can't even read Telugu properly. Only English.

laxi said...

Qatar has signed 16 billion deal with pakis...can we influence this deal in any way?

laxi said...


laxi said...

Pakistan may buy as many as 20 Mi-35 helicopters as well as Russian surface-to-air missile systems, according to Jon Grevatt, Asia-Pacific defense-industry analyst for IHS Jane’s.

TheHundred said...

Laxi here's some info regarding the pakistan-Qatar deal.

laxi said...

Thanks TheHundred,

i have been following this deal. we are paying morethan 3x what they will pay.