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Saturday, September 24, 2016

A Done Deal At Long Last

As the slides above clearly show, yesterday’s inter-governmental contract signing ceremony involved India’s Ministry of Defence and its French counterpart’s Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA), and not with any OEM. 
That ‘creature/entity’ marked above with the red-arrow is a ‘desi’ bandabaaz’ from the TOI GROUP called Srinjoy, who is well-known for consistently spreading falsities and disinformation, like the non-inking of CISMOA and BECA foundational agreements by India has led to the IAF and IN receiving ‘inferior C-130J-30s and P-8Is. The question that begs asking is why such ‘bandalbaazes’ are allowed to be in close proximity of any visiting VVIP delegation—clearly a clear-cut violation of established diplomatic security protocols—instead of being kept away at a safe distance as is the universal practice all over the world.

96 comments:

Rajesh Mishra said...

At last, congratulations for the Rafale deal.

Pierre Zorin said...

Look at his stance. The face of the guy and his casual stance hands in his pocket ignores the very fallen heroes in front of him who gave him his freedom to enjoy! The face of the French Minister - looks a lot more genuine and caring for the fallen soldiers. Shame Bandalbaazes are getting such exposure doing nothing but misleading the masses.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Problem is does the GOI know this?--------------Knowing about something & yet doing nothing about it or doing something totally contrary to remts are polar opposites. For instance, Gen Yahya Khan knew too well that he could not save East Pakistan in any scenario nor could he prevail against India along the IB/CFL. Yet he became a victim of his own past utterances to a point of no-return. Same with Pandit 'Chacha' Nehru in 1959 when he announced the Forward Policy when he knew very well that nothing would come out of it.

BTW, still want to get an idea--what extent has IAF hardened, shielded or otherwise protected assets from EMP?--------All that is clearly explained through specifications contained in various RFPs dealing with construction of such infrastructure.

To SOURAV JHA: It's all about numbers: Baluchistan accounts for 43% of Pakistan's landmass & yet contains only 5% of Pakistan's population. Of this, the Balochis are in a minority whereas there are 43 million Pashtuns residing in Baluchistan, while only 13 million Pashtuns are in Afghanistan. So, logically, if one tries to create a pro-independence fervour inside Balushistan, then the Pashtuns' support should be enlisted. And this is where Afghanistan's fervent pleas of the recent past in terms of making the Afghan-India strategic partnership far more robust than it is now assumes paramount importance.

To ABS: Lolz! Show me one country in this world that is 100% truly religious in the true sense of the term! As for Muslim countries, all those swearing by Islam are in fact swearing by political Islam or the Islam of the Mullahs, & not Allah's Islam. If Allah's Islam were to be followed immediately after the Holy Prophet's demise, then all Muslim countries would have consolidated into 1 unitary Caliphate. That never happened & at one time there were 4 separate Caliphates during the Middle Age. In an area of nation-states, there's simply no room for territorial boundaries being defined through the definition of civilisational states.

As for the Ruskies, was it not NaMo on August 15, 2016 who separated PoK from Gilgit & Baltistan? Why did he not say "PoK inclusive of GB"? Who's fault is that? Russia's, or the arsehole who wrote that speech for NaMo? So which of the two deserves the most to be castrated?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: Yes, I saw that garbage from that Bandalbaaz & he's not aware of all the support equipment & training aids that are part of the procurement package & therefore lumps it all into the the per-unit acquisition costs account. In any case, LINGARAJ has provided some clarifications in that thread.

To SATYA: That joint counter-terror exercise was scheduled last year itself & is of no consequence to India.

To RAJ: No, that contract has nothing to do with the Fish Hook project. As I had explained before, elements of the Fish Hook have been operational in the Andaman Sea area since the previous decade.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Looks like the RM has at last ABSORBED & UNDERSTOOD all that I had been stating about the Rafale as the next-generation DPSA for the IAF:

Parrikar himself was quite gung-ho about the deal. "Rafale is a very potent fighter that will add to the IAF's airpower and deep-strike capabilities," he said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Rafale-to-give-Indian-Air-Force-combat-edge-over-Pakistans-F-16s/articleshow/54491180.cms

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasunda ,

Is this going to be a limited deal of 36+18 or will India go in for more under the Make In India format.
Thank & Regards

DAshu said...

And again one of your prophecies proved correct.

Pierre Zorin said...

I have been naughty. So that he could not say I am parroting what you say I used another's handle to give him some advice. He IS aware, just won't give his audience the full story. It is a lot juicier if you tell part truth - gossip mags like New Idea, Cosmopolitan etc have been doing this all the time.
My comment about that Bandy 2 standing with his hands in his pocket got deleted somehow. I said his nonchalant, apathetic face and disrespectful posture is a direct insult to the fallen heroes. The look on the French DM's show a lot of genuine feelings on the other hand.

Siddharth said...

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Rafale-to-give-Indian-Air-Force-combat-edge-over-Pakistans-F-16s/articleshow/54491180.cms

In the same article, writer is claiming two Su-30MKI's needed to counter a single F-16 because latter has superior weapon package. Has he analyses the maneuverability and electronics of both aircraft before his claim. I strongly believe only you can give the correct explanation.

Magicbullet said...

Dada..is it just me or others too have noticed the sudden stoppage of rhetoric..what could be the reason?

AniluvG said...

Prasunda

Even a Rajay Pandit seems to be a 'Bandalbaaz' Cover story on TOI says that two Su 30 MKI is required for one F 16 and vice versa for Rafale. I think Armed forces should start articulating the need etc better . it shoudn't take the RM 2.5 years to understand why India needs Rafale and peddle garbage like additional Su 30 MKIs and LCAs .

Also It would be excellent if you dwell on the escalation dominance theory and how India can practice it in March next year and what equipment will be required by then .

Aditya said...

https://m.sputniknews.com/europe/20151127/1030873868/eu-china-pakistan-condemnation-syria-intervention.html

Very awesome news for India.
Modi policy working.

saurav jha said...

The way establishment is treating Balochistan's Pushtun leader: Achkzai these days, is it possible to see some Pushtuns ready to cooperate with Baloch ? Another point : Pushtun and Muhazir leaders have been very quiet about this recent tension after Uri.Only blusters are coming from Punjabis. Ominous signs for Pakistan ?

@ Arpit Kanodia .. No .. He is different.

rad said...

hi prasun
My congrats and admiration to you for correctly predicting that the rafale will be the winner all through these years.

Is india connected to the fish hook system or the yanks are giving us need to know info only?

As US is the leader with this undersea tech a collaboration would be ideal as india has decided to have its own sea sensors. what is the generally accepted detection range of these systems ?.How good are the soviet systems ?

financeblogger said...

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-china-assures-pakistan-of-support-in-case-of-foreign-aggression-2258241




What is your opinion about the above article with reference to the Chinese support to Pakistan?




What is your opinion about the asylum being sought by Brahumdagh Bugti (Will Indian government grant him?) and also about newspaper reports that the Indian government is considering formation of exiled Balochistan government (How much about the possibility of the same?)?

RAT said...

Again a Good one Prasun,

I strongly believe The Rafale number will be more than 220 this will include Super-Rafale which will have spin off tech from the Gen 5 fighter being developed by France and Germany. If we have the money we MAY even get the Gen 5 fighter as well lets hope. Now coming back to this "http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Rafale-to-give-Indian-Air-Force-combat-edge-over-Pakistans-F-16s/articleshow/54491180.cms" This reporter seems to have no understanding of any fighter capability may be just an intern trying to fill in for the regular one nothing much to take from it just comments from RM. (sorry to all Vegetarian friends for using this example) Back to Grilling the Pork its said that the best way to grill it is by cooking it from inside out along with well inserted spices. That's what I believe will happen now what do you say? Thanks Once again.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Anon@7.11AM: The mere fact that 28 single-seaters & 8 tandem-seaters have been ordered means that more Rafales will be ordered in future, since for every 36 single-seaters there are only 4 tandem-seaters required.

To RAD: VMT. India is not yet connected to the Fish Hook system, but will be by the year's end. The DRDO did try to develop its own coastal seabed surveillance system, but the technological hurdles could not be overcome & the technology demonstration effort was junked. The Soviets never had any such system in place during the Cold War & neither does Russia at present.

To MAGICBULLET: That's because the rhetoric was actually emanating from all hues of broadcast TV channels who easily get enthused by Hollywood/Bollywood flicks. In reality, the IA either carries out a tactically proportionate retaliation within 24 hours, or waits for at least 3 to 6 months before striking back to cause proportionate damage to the enemy. The mere fact that the PAF activated its contingency plans in Gilgit-Baltistan & began aircraft emergency landing drills on two motorways is sufficient proof that the IA & IAF did go on the offensive in some as-yet-unknown manner so as to make the PA & PAF get extremely jittery. And India had valid reasons for keeping her retaliation a secret for obvious reasons, which I will explain later in a new thread dealing with escalation dynamics & its management.

financeblogger said...

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report-china-assures-pakistan-of-support-in-case-of-foreign-aggression-2258241




What is your opinion about the above article with reference to the Chinese support to Pakistan?




What is your opinion about the asylum being sought by Brahumdagh Bugti (Will Indian government grant him?) and also about newspaper reports that the Indian government is considering formation of exiled Balochistan government (How much about the possibility of the same?)?

RR said...

Thanks Prasun,

GREAT DEBATE on Rafales vs SU-30MKIs and capabilities, plus connecting under water sonar beds with FISH HOOK project if it is going on, in the A&n seas to detect submarines entering Bay of Bengal and it is educative. And CISMOA and BECA LIKE AN INDIAN CURRY !

If Ajay Shukla is to be believed as he is very good at reporting INSIDES, then his spin in the Rafale deal is it was Fait Accompli cast in stone by two PMs and included nuclear reactors from AREVA and like in the Scorpene deal to prop up RM, cost of Rafale was reduced, but NO MAKE IN INDIA which Mukesh Ambani Reliance Defenceand HAL offered but 50% off sets and France Factory delivery and SUPPORT AND HUGE WEAPON COST so all are happy.

I ask is Mirage-2000 too old for nuclear delivery (EMP/EMI) as Rafale has superior NUCLEAR attack capability for the French for deterrence, and so for India's second strike.Then its win for France for money and CONTINUED PRODUCTION AND India for security cost be blowed and Gripen and F-16 LOST OUT.

RR

Magicbullet said...


Thanks dada ...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SIDDHARTH & ANILUVG: Such erroneous assumptions arise because these 'desi' bandalbaazes don't even bother to study the performance characteristics of combat aircraft, leave alone mastering the laws of physics. That's why the RM had earlier stated that the Su-30MKI could take over the Rafale's role (he also does not know anything about nuclear deterrence matters since all such matters are handled by the NSA & not the RM & hence when he went too far trying to justify the allegations hurled against the AW-101 deal, he was given the shut-up call), while the 'desi' bandalbaazes don't realise that the Su-30MKI was designed from the outset to cruise at far higher altitudes than other combat aircraft & thus it was nicknamed BAAZ, meaning a Falcon swooping down upon its prey. Similarly, a Su-30MKI will always be cruising at least 10,000 feet/15,000 feet above its opponents like the F-16 & that's because the Su-30MKI's RLSU-30MK/NO-11M 'Bars' PESA-MMR & OEPS-30 IRST sensor both function at their very best when operating in the look-down mode. In addition, a R-77 BVRAAM or R-73E WVRAAM when fired from a higher altitude against targets below will possess higher kinematic performance as well as greater engagement ranges. And it is for this very reason that the IAF did not consider the fitment of MAWS as imperative in the previous decade, since the F-16's APG-66 radars will find it exceptionally difficult to scan a wide swatch of airspace in the look-up mode.

It is, really, all quite elementary, PROVIDED one understands & respects the laws of physics. Obviously the 'desi' bandalbaazes weren't paying enough attention in their physics classes during their schoolgoing days!

PJ said...

Hi Prasun,

In one of the PAF documentaries,the links of which you have provided in the previous thread,some PAF fighter jockey mentioned that previously IAF enjoyed a distinct bvr advantage over them but that gap has been bridged nowadays and the F-16 and JF-17 are on equal terms with the Su-30mki as far as beyond visual r engagement is concerned. PAF started receiving AIM-120C-5 variant with a max slant range of 105 km since 2010 for their F-16C/D. We have the R-VVAE with a 90 km max range as the only long ranged active aam for the Su-30mki. Besides that we have R-27ER and R-27ET which are ranged at 110 and 120 km respectively. Yes, I know that a missile wont fly straight as the crow flies and so max ranges arent so important but a longer engagement range allows to outrange your enemy and engage him while keeping away from his missile,s engagement envelope and also allows one to dictate the terms of the entire fight.

In this regard, does the IAF have any aam which has a significantly longer range than the AIM-120C-5 ?In recent times did we go any new longer ranged aamprocurements for the Su-30mki fleet? Like the new R-77M1 variant .


Besides the Scalp,wont we be acquiring AASM standoff pgm for the Rafale? There were no mention of any AASM variants like the SBU-64 or 52 in any press or media reports.Everyone was very gungho about the Meteor but unfortunately there was nothing about this piece .

There will be 14 enhancements to the Rafale F3R tranche for the IAF.Besides the integration of Targo Hmd and Astra bvraam what are the other significant enhancements? Are we opting for uprated M88-4E which will develope 90kn at full afterburner to improve rafale's hot and high performance and its capability to take off with considerable fuel and weapons from high altitude airfields. 1.7 billion euro for these IAF specific customisations and enhancements.There must be something really awesome.

Also as far as beyond visual range engagements of Mki vs F-16 C d is concerned, the F-16 will be having a max RCS of around 1.5 sqm in an air to air config and roundabout 3 with ground weapons.The mki is SAID TO HAVE a clean Rcs of 8-10 sqm for the frontal aft. No one is quite sure about this figure for the later batches of Mki with us but these are the figures people usually claim for these two fighters in various aviation forums. Although the N011M has a much higher detection and tracking envelope,the su's high rcs denies it the look first opportunity. Although again there will be aewc assets monitoring and shaping the battle on both sides but if these assets are to be removed hypothetically,doesnt the F-16 gain an dge over the MKI?
Are we doing anything to brinng down these Rcs figures for the Su and make it less observable in the radiofreqen domain ?

AVI D said...

Hi Prasun. There has been a lot of talk about the cost aspect of the Rafale deal and a lot of misinformation which is being peddled. I know you had touched upon it in parts, in various responses. But will it be possible for you to put in a complete evaluation and break up (in as much as it is possible) of the complete spend on Rafale and what we are getting out of the deal?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PJ: Again, it’s the undeniable laws of physics that provide all the answers in dissimilar air combat. No AAM flies straight either in azimuth or elevation & therefore max range is NEVER critical. All BVRAAMs use proportional navigation within a 3-dimensional spherical bowl that enables them to compute the most probable & optimum interception point. The dimensions of the 3-D bowl are entirely dependent on the mechanically scanning MMR antennae’s max gimbaled movements in azimuth & elevation & these in turn are the final determinants of an AAM’s performance parameters as far as effective range goes. Any aircraft cruising at higher altitudes will have a greater field-of-regard & expanded horizon & will consequently its on-board MMR’s antenna will require far less degree of movement in azimuth & elevation when compared the MMR performance of an aircraft cruising at a lower altitude. Thus, even if an adversary’s BVRAAM can fly a longer distance than an R-77, it will still require mid-course guidance cues from the MMR provided the MMR can keep a Su-30MKI within its field-of-view. Presently, the mechanically scanning MMRs of the F-16, JF-17, Mirage-3/5/F-7P/PG of the PAF can’t do this against a Su-30MKI cruising at a higher altitude & chances are that when guided by GCI, any IAF MiG-29UPG or Su-30MKI will be able to effortlessly detect, track & manoeuvre behind any PAF aircraft in 100% passive mode & fire R-73Es. Coming now to dogfights, NONE of the PAF’s combat aircraft have all-aspect WVRAAMs. Even the Block 52 F-16s that have HMDS cannot do all-aspect WVRAAM firing since the AIM-9S, PL-5E & PL-9C AAMs are not all-aspect. The R-73Es, MICA-IR & Python-5 on the other hand are all-aspect, meaning even if the launch aircraft turns 45 degrees to the left, the HMDS will ensure that during this turn the WVRAAM’s IIR seeker is already locked-on to the target aircraft located 45 degrees to the right in azimuth & elevation.

As for Rafale, it will contain all fitments, weapons & enhancements that are meant for the F-3R standard variant, including uprated powerplant, MBDA’s towed-decoys, etc etc. Astra BVRAAM is years away from entering service. Mica-IR/-RFs & Meteors will be used.

All RCS figures being touted about by fanboys concern only frontal RCS. RCS computation differs in different planes & angles & altitudes. Most importantly, the APG-66 MMR family are all non-monopulse & are highly unreliable in BVR air combat. That’s exactly why IAI/ELTA had to develop the monopulse EL/M-2032 MMR as an alternative.

Meanwhile, one PAF F-7 crashed yesterday at KPK near Jamrud, killing the pilot: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT9-SC5ssxM

To AVI D: You can read all about it in the October 2016 issue of FORCE magazine.

RJS said...

Hi Dada ,

I must confess that I've been following your blog for years & am much impressed with both the command that you have on technical matters as well as geopolitical / geostrategic affairs.
What piqued my interest is you often referring to 2018 as the year of reckoning as far as Pakistan is concerned specifically w.r.t the plan to defang that nation of its nuclear weapons , an event which if managed successfully , will effect tectonic shifts across the world.

In my limited world view it seems impossible to De nuclearise a police state with a standing army of half a million + soldiers , a respectable air force with bases containing such weapons spread across the land ( & the fact that we're talking about 100+ N weapons from TNW's to SN warheads - in whatever form apart from fissile material ) and Nuclear Weapons Manufacturing facilities apart from reactors, N Re processing plants etc.

Apart from this , I've read that the Strategic Forces tasked with the C&C of N weapons actually load them on to SUV type vehicles which drive across various cities in that nation with minimal security so as not to attract attention so that they're available as an extra insurance against an eventuality that you predict- so paranoid are they !!

How on earth are the US & their coalition or any nation going to secure their N warheads both TNW & SNW , the various production facilities & the launch vehicles all at the same time in a single attempt ( it's obvious they won't have more than that )

While I do realise that you would be hesitant to divulge details , given your your knowledge on this subject due in no small measure to your vast networking , all I'm asking for are the broad markings which will serve as the contours of such a plan if it exists.

If I do sound skeptical in the last sentence of the previous paragraph , I do beg your pardon , as though the heart desires such an outcome , given the various outrages being precipitated by that accursed land on us & the larger neighbourhood only due to their possession of such weapons which render our pussilinamous leaders impotent & the laymen humiliated , the mind says this plan , if there is any , is fiction of the highest order.

In sincere anticipation of a thorough analytical reply.

Thanks in advance.

Warm Regards,

RJS

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RJS: LoLz! Are you visualising any Hollywood-type scenario aimed at denuclearising Pakistan? If that were to the case, an armada of 3 carrier battle groups of the USN off Karachi would have sufficed for the job. Since that's not happened nor is it going to happen, the more plausible option on the table then is to wage a sustained, unrelenting AirLand campaign that could well stretch out to 90 days. In any case this will be a multinational effort & therefore no one will impose any arbitrary timelines from the UNSC. When conducting threat assessments, it's not just a numbers game, but also the deployment footprint & transportation logistics of the adversary that are taken into account. In a country with narrow, elongated geography in which the air-travel time from Pathankot to Sargodha is a mere 15 minutes even when flying at treetop level, It is fairly easy to undertake effects-based operations aimed at glueing up the various battlefields & decapitating the enemy's war-waging resources PROVIDED there's persistent, 24/7 ISR capacity available by way of ISTR aircraft like JSTARS. Now to the all-important ;evel of morale of the adversary: it is well-known to everyone that the senior leadership of the PA, PN & PAF are all businessmen in essence apart from being highly feudalistic & are therefore least likely to employ the nuclear option, since doing so will result in total obliteration of all their material wealth/assets. The PA & PAF are presently totally committed to fighting their own countrymen in all the 4 provinces & FATA & every province's internal law-and-order machinery is being run by Apex Committees manned by the bureaucracy & the local Corps Cdr. To top it all there are tens of millions of their own native countrymen being churned out from the 26,000+ Madrassas who provide an inexhaustible supply of self-styled ultra-extremist Jihadis who will always clash with all organs of the State of Pakistan as part of their quest to establish an Islamic State based on Sharia law. Consequently, each of the 4 provinces today are on their own trying to protect their own cultural identities that have nothing in common--a state of affairs predicted by Pandit 'Chacha' Nehru way back in 1946. So, political Islam or Islamism instead of being the cementer, has become the main source of societal fragmentation & national disunity.

WRT the quantum of nuclear WMDs & their delivery systems possessed by Pakistan, no one has to date been able to come up with verifiable material evidence in the open domain about stockpiled delivery systems or warheads. So I for one will be the last one to lose any sleep on figures like 100 or 200 etc etc.

So, if I were to provoke Pakistan into some ill-fated misadventure, I would exploit their weakness for material wealth/real estate & up the ante by taking realistic steps to revisit the IWR & use a greater quantum of waters of the western rivers as that is legally authorised under the IWT but as an option India has never exercised until now. The feudal class in Pakistan will panic & throw in the towel by launching a military offensive against that one piece of real estate that will guarantee them uninterrupted/unhindered supply of water, i.e. J & K. India can easily recoil to absorb this punch, but hit back across the entire LoC & will be able to capture the whole of PoK in less than 1 month.

RJS said...

Hi Dada,

Very much thanks for your prompt & incisive response.I thought the attempt would be something like what this link describes below in this link .Do go through it -

http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/the-pentagons-secret-plans-to-secure-pakistans-nuclear-arsenal/

Further, if as you are predicting this operation is to take place in 2018 & it's supposed to be a multi lateral attempt , one doesn't see such a network of nations crystallising ( assuming it would be the US & it's allies ) .If such an event unfolds , wont it require the UNSC resolution to provide it legal sanctity given that unlike NK , Pakistan isn't under any sanctions .What role would India play in such an event ? What about China , will it stay neutral ? How will NK perceive such an event , won't it up the ante ? Finally , what's to prevent some brainwashed Pak general from unleashing their N tipped missiles against such a co alition or even on India for that matter ( you know the age old axiom - hum toh doobe sanam saath tumhe bhi le doobenge) .

Thanks in advance.

Warm Regards,

RJS

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RJS: Not necessary to obtain UNSC sanction. OP Iraqi Freedom didn't require UNSC sanction. India's liberation of Hyderabad & Goa & the liberation of East Pakistan & its transformation into Bangladesh didn't require UNSC sanction. There was no UNSC sanction when it was decided to balkanise Yugoslavia in the early 1990s. China is not so worried today about India-Pakistan relations or the South China Sea as it is about North Korea. All the elite PLA formations are located opposite the Korean Peninsula. All heavy MBTs of the PLA Army are positioned directly opposite DPRK. China knows only too well that by the time the US Pivot to the Pacific is completed, the first chip to drop will be that of DPRK & everyone knows that the days of DPRK as it now exists are numbered. There are no brainwashed Pakistani Generals when it comes to safeguarding their own real estates. They perfectly value & cherish their lands. But when it comes to military professionalism, yes they're 100% brain-dead. For instance, watch this interview in which a retired PAF Air Marshal, who was a former Chairman of PAC Kamra, claims that in 1999 the PAF shot down 2 IAF Su-27s & that the IAF's MiG-29s are the best the IAF has now got but they have only 33% serviceability because of inferior Russian technology, thereby conveniently forgetting that the PAF's much-touted JF-17 uses the same kind of Russian technology, i.e. the RD-93 turbofan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ivgqupuJK8w (watch from 11.07 onward)

And here's something more on the IWT:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkCfOGkq3w0

Uttam Sinha of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses said Pakistan could be pressured even without stopping the waters or violating any other provisions of the Indus Treaty. “We have never used our rights on the western rivers. Under the Treaty, we can make use of the waters of the western rivers for irrigation, storage, and even for producing electricity, in the manner specified. If we just do what we are entitled to under the Treaty, it would be enough to send jitters through Pakistan. It would be a strong signal without doing anything drastic,” Sinha said. Indeed, the Treaty allows India to construct storage up to 3.6 million acre feet on the western rivers. But India has developed no storage capacities; nor has it utilised the water it is entitled to for irrigation. Sinha also argued for India’s greater engagement with Afghanistan on the development of the Kabul River that flows into Pakistan through the Indus basin. “This again can make Pakistan extremely nervous. It is in our strategic interest in any case to enhance our engagement on developmental issues with Afghanistan,” he said. Stopping the waters of the Indus rivers, on the other hand, can be counterproductive, Sinha said. “We have water-sharing arrangements with other neighbours as well. Not honouring the Indus Treaty would make them uneasy and distrustful. And we would lose our voice if China, decides to do something similar.”

http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/india-pakistan-relation-indus-water-treaty-terrorism-3044967/


.

RJS said...

Hi Dada,

Thanks once more for an illuminating post.Yes, it does seem NK days are numbered.Do you foresee a Pakistan type operation being launched against DPRK by the US & presumably assisted by RoK & Japan ? What would China's response be like given that they seem to have concentrated their forces on the Korean border? What in your opinion would be the timeline for such action ?

Finally, coming back to Pakistan's arsenal - you have predicted an air land campaign .will it involve total destruction by air of all their N assets or will it be on the lines of the action as described in the link I've posted.

Once again , thanks in advance & apologies if I've kept you up.I've no clue if you share the same time zone that I do.But it's nearing 5 am here. I've been fighting off sleep to have the privilege to chat in real time to you about this subject which has grabbed my attention & vexed me.

Warm Regards,

RJS

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RJS: The anti-DPRK operation is due for staging early in the next decade. China will be a tough but not impossible nut to crack since the anti-DPRK operation will involve regime change , something that will also pose a grave danger to a national security state like China which dreads above all else a regime change, especially in outlying paces like HKSAR. Then there's the question-mark on China's debt crisis, which has been explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7enlEd_1XP4

In Pakistan it will be total destruction of all their WMD capabilities & capacities, in line with Dr Henry Kissinger's threat made to Z A Bhutto in the 1970s: "if you cross the nuclear threshold, we will make a horrible example out of you."

Pierre Zorin said...

BTW Prasun I have the answer to your question why creatures like Srinjoy are allowed to get so close to VIPs. On this occasion, because it was a French affair, perhaps looking at his physique it was concluded he is a veteran of the Battle of the Bulge :)

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Another targetting coordinate across the LoC in PoK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4c-4QOResQs

Ravi said...

Dear Sir

The Pakistanis F 16 have APG 68 -V 9 Radars

You have written APG 66

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

PrasunDa,

Yesterday on NDTV's program The Big Fight the panel that had gathered suggested that India does not carry out covert operations inside Pakistan to eliminate Hafiz Saeed, Dawood Ibrahim among others because then Pakistan will retaliate by targetting Indian political leaders inside India.

Will you please clarify if their observation is true?

http://www.ndtv.com/video/news/the-big-fight/uri-attack-fallout-what-are-india-s-options-432530

Thanks,

Sujoy

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,separatist Sikh leader Amarjit Singh speaks to a pakistani news channel and want support on Khalistan from Pakistan,is it possible Pakistan try to take revenge of Indian support to Balochistan by instigating Khalistan insurgency. VINOD KUMAR

Vikram Guha said...
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Anonymous said...

Balouchistan has number of issues to over-come if it is to become a nation.

1. Currently only 5million out of 20 million balouch live in balouchistan. The rest live in nwfp, punjab and sindh.

2. Most are split along tribal lines and sub-tribal lines. Some of the tribes/sub-tribes are totoally with the military. Same is the issue with the most pro-independent tribe BUGTI's. Half are with the mil and helping kill their brothers to gain control of the tribe and land. Which they have now.

3. Pakistani mil has been recruiting massively from balouchistn. Same is the case for the their FC. They have opened up cadet colleges. These are very motivated soldiers. They are the ones mainly hunting the pro-independet freedom fighters.

4. With Gwadar, the demographics will completely change. With another 2-5 million people coming. With the new roads, the culture of the balouch will change.

5. They are doing what they did to sindh recruit and destroyed anyone related to pro-ind movement from within. Divide and rule. It scares the baloch.

6. The Pastun and balouch do not like each other. Manily due to struggle for land. Most balouch lands were given to them by zia and they are loyal to the pak mil.

7. Bramdagh should not have left. He should have been a real leader like his grandfather. No leader remains a leader from afar.

Dossa

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
http://idrw.org/why-india-must-take-heed-and-counter-the-silent-invasion-of-china/#more-108844

What is your opinion about the above article.
After the Uri-attack Cong. said that this gov. is the weakest gov.
What a shame.Their policy is that give the solid proofs to the pakistan & there is joint investigation,Pakistan deny all charges and finally we become a Laughing-stock.

What is the condition of our infantry men,is they well-equipped to face Pakistan & China together?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI: APG-66 is part of the APG-66 family. All are non-monopulse radars.

Amardeep said...

sir, all mig 29 are upgraded to upg standard? when will delivery of rafale jets start?

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,

The link you given above about IWT, I watched it.

WTF that lady was talking about. Where is obnoxious, horrifying and plain foolish if we withdrew from IWT.

Didnt this is foolish that we only taking 20% of water from rivers, while the sovereign rights are 50%? Isnt this is beneficial we make canals and give water to J&K, and Himachal Pradesh, instead of Pak wasting that water?

Isnt that's not obnoxious where we think about as some goodwill gesture toward Pakistan, while our citizen and farmers suffer economic losses?

Anonymous said...

From Gaurab

Hi Prasun

Please post my comment. Many of my recent comments have not been posted

Reg. your comments that something might have happened in LOC after Uri due to which Pak army and airforce conducted drills..and yes this is indication that something might have happened or pak thought that this time India may attack.
There are some members in IDF who still now are claiming that raid has happened and they have heard from thier family members who are in army(though not sure of true)

Can you please confirm if something has really happened and why its not there in media?No need to go in details ..just yes or no since you have information which we public dont have
If infact some thing has happened why the army id denying. What benefit we will get by denying? If not Govt then someone else from army should say it.

BROWN DESI said...

Finally a sane voice with sound reasoning and logic. Some how it is only coming out of NAVY off late:
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/narendra-modi-on-uri-attack-kashmir-unrest-india-pakistan-army-3049938/

Brown Desi

Sidharth said...

Prasun da,

Don't know who wrote it
Not aware of its source and authenticity, so not endorsing it however considering it to worth reading at least once! Forwarding it as received.
Attack on Uri army camp in India, by Pakistani terrorists.
Response.....
It can be economic blockade.
It can be water stoppage for Sindhu and five rivers of Punjab going into Pakistan, or Surgical strikes inside.
But the big question is.. Can India attack Pakistan this week?
But still.. 69 years of handling of Jammu and Kashmir by India is something we have to look at right now. Can India afford to hit Pakistan where it hurts the most, for Pakistan's obsession with Jihadi terror export all these decades?
It is must deeper than that.. Geo politics!
Pakistan had even offered to give up East Pakistan in 1950s, in return for Jammu and Kashmir on the side lines of official discussions with India! So definitely it is not religion or Kashmiris.. it is much deeper than that. It was water sources then, but now much more deeper
Yes, water is an issue. It is China..It is China and CPEC: The "thing" is the CPEC: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. If you look at it closely suddenly everything falls into place. Kashmir, Balochistan, India's unwillingness to strike, silence of international community, everything else. Pakistan is just a front.
The real sponsor is hiding behind.
Pakistan sponsors terrorism to get Kashmir. It is not that simple. Pakistan kept the Kashmir flame burning until the 1990s to meet their ends, when China conceived the CPEC and decided to take over. A bit on the CPEC as no one seems to have heard about it. China has a huge geographic handicap: no access to southern world oceans.

Sidharth said...

Contd....

So Chinese shipments from Europe, Middle East, Africa have to travel all the way around India, Malacca and ASEAN. China has serious problems with most countries in that region due to its aggressive military posture.
Why Pakistan is so important for Chinese economy? What if China could get a route through Pakistan to access the Arabian Sea? That is the CPEC. A corridor of highways and railways will run from Kashgar in China to Gwadar in Pakistan (Baluchistan) on the Arabian Sea near Iran border. And ALL the infrastructure and associated stuff for CPEC will be constructed for Pakistan by China, free or cost or for negligible loans.
What is CPEC? Four Six-lane Expressways from north to south Pakistan, four different routes. All main railway lines being upgraded to 160 kph double. A six to eight lane super expressway Karachi to Gwadar and Hyderabad Innumerable coal, thermal, solar and hydro power plants all across Pakistan. All of Gwadar, including a mega international airport! Then Hospitals, schools, colleges, tech institutes, even a Metro line in Lahore!
But why is Jammu and Kashmir involved here? Now, on the Karakoram highway, this is where it matters most for India. It connects China and Pakistan, though India! Through Jammu and Kashmir, which legally acceded to India in 1947 October. Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, which legally belongs to India, but illegally occupied by Pakistan. Keep in mind, China also occupies illegally the eastern and northern part of Jammu and Kashmir - Shaksgam valley (gifted by Pakistan in 1960s) and Aksai Chin (occupied by China in 1950s when it annexed Tibet).
The highway passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Pakistan and China are connected through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK for short). Pakistan calls this Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir, as Northern Territories sometimes.
A high-capacity highway across the Himalayas!
Now, though the CPEC is a recent thing, the idea had taken birth long back. The Karakoram highway started building in 1959, opened in 1979! Possibly Pakistan had refused China access to Gwadar then as they could. But now they have no other choice but handover to China.
Why CPEC? ....OIL: Gwadar is just 400 km away from Muscat and 500 from the Strait of Hormuz through which all Gulf oil passes. 12 hours at sea! Proximity to Africa: China virtually owns much of Africa today. Billions in investment, buys natural resources. Nothing better than this. Pakistan as a market: China will flood Pakistan and Gulf with its cheap products and make a windfall there too. Proximity to new friend Sri Lanka.If USA/UK (control Malacca strait - Singapore) or India in Indian ocean decide to choke it, China will have no problem as it has CPEC. But, all of CPEC and China's ambitions bearing fruit depends on the Karakoram highway. That depends on PoK continued to be occupied by Pakistan.

Sidharth said...

Contd...

A sign in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir -
Here is the Karakoram highway near Gilgit in India (PoK) and under construction somewhere in the mountains. It should be obvious by now that China does NOT want India to reclaim its land lost to Pakistan in 1947 and 1948 - the strategic Karakoram ranges in Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir. It is as simple as that!
China owns Pakistan for most part today: CPEC and all associated stuff are called "China-Pakistan Friendship" something or the other. No friendship there. Just Chinese business. China is not doing business with Pakistan. It is running its business in Pakistan. It is running Pakistan. China pays for protection. If things get push to shove, China can tell US: "We will nationalize your businesses if you don't tell India to withdraw". What will we do?
What we should first realize is that there is no Pakistan. There is only China. Pakistan is just a front. We should deal accordingly. It is in China's interest to keep Kashmir burning. If there is peace in the valley, India MIGHT set its eyes on PoK. Chinese know that India has a strong Prime Minister today who can think of that. China does not want India to even think of getting PoK back. Of course, China did not light the Kashmir fire, but it certainly looks like it is them who keep it burning that no consensus is reached. So, in addition to water, religion, ego, demographics and so on there is one more reason behind the Kashmir unrest: China and CPEC.
Is dialogue with Pakistan sensible? It is utter foolishness to think that in such a case we can resolve this through dialogue! We talk one thing while issue is another! Issue is NOT what we think is the issue! We and our Government should first understand this. I am sure they have. Hopefully they aren't helpless. China is waging a proxy-proxy-deceptive war which we cannot understand or prove or blame. We need to mobilize some other way.
Baluchistan's role: Why Pakistan got all worked up when India raised Balochistan? Gwadar is in Balochistan. Much of CPEC infra passes through Balochistan. The CPEC is China's hope at lifting its sagging economy and securing its strategic position in the region. Its future maybe depends on it. Karakoram- Hindukush- Pamir region since ancient times been strategically sensitive. The Silk Road. China wants control of the new Silk Road. If India were to take PoK we would squeeze the Karakoram Highway shut. No more CPEC, Silk Road. China done for. That is the whole game. Highways are primary military conduits rather than civilian. Whoever controls the highway controls the region.
Ultimately.. Pakistan's ultimate aim is to establish an Islamic caliphate. Apart from this China helps them through CPEC. You might disagree with Modi et al but please support the Government right now in whatever action it takes. Politicking can wait. Wait two more months before taking any harsh decisions. Things might change post November.

Satya said...

Iran wants to become a part of CPEC, says Rouhani www.dawn.com/news/1285404 Is this isolation?

Manoj G said...

Hi Prasun,

India's Naval Science & Technological Laboratory(NSTL) is seeking consultants who can help them in developing Supercavitating Projectile, in other words Torpedoes.

1.Does this mean that DRDO or NSTL have once again failed in their effort to design torpedoes?

2.Which consultants do you believe will probably respond to this tender ?

http://www.drdo.gov.in/drdo/tenders/viewTender.jsp?paramMicro=18985

Thank You

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MANOJ G: You're assuming it's a torpedo. It can also mean an anti-torpedo hard-kill projectile used as an interceotpr to destroy inbound wire-guided torpedoes.

To SIDDHARTH: If India wants to isolate Pakistan economically &^ diplomatically, then first & foremost it should be India who should walk the talk, i.e. Parliament should unanimously declare Pakistan a terrorist state through a resolution & also immediately revoke the MFN status accorded to Pakistan in 1995. India should also begin utilising its share of waters of her western rivers as legally awarded by the IW Tribunal. I can't understand why the stupid 'desi' broadcast TV channels are all ASSUMING that this tantamounts to revocation of the IWT. Greater utilisation of the waters by India has been a longstanding demand of the state of J & K & its Legislative Assembly itself has officially & repeatedly asked the Govt of India to revist the IWT.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BROWN DESI: More 'Made in China' hardware falling from the skies:

PAF UAV crashes near Mianwali: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svZ-XwWmZJs

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1188631/paf-drone-crashes-near-mianwali/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: That can only be expected from such 'senior desi' journalists who never bother to go into the detail by examining those legal documents available from the J & K state legislature. Hell, they can't even tell the difference between 'revisiting' & 'revoking'!

BTW, has anyone taken note of the presence of the Pak PM's Military Assistant (clad in his Khaki uniform) present throughout the UNGA session inside the Conventional Hall? Can anyone guess why the hell was this officer from the PA was clinging to Nawaz Sharif like his shadow? Did anyone see any other world leader inside the UNGA being escorted & accompanied by their respective military assistants? Even the US President who is the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of his country's armed forces is never accompanies by his Military Assistant to such diplomatic events. In fact, even during the Republic Day Parade in India in 2015 the POTUS was never shown being accompanied by his military assistant. And yet the Pakistani Military Assistant was always seen in close proximity to the Pakistani PM was seen in New York during all his official engagements & appearances. Why the hell should any PM have a military assistant in the first place for such ceremonial appearances???

Rahul said...

Dear Sir

Please Answer My Question

The Pakis are always gloating that Indian SU 30 is a Hangar Queen with a
very low availability rate

So it is true ; how the Hell will be fight this war

Can we make ALL the planes ready and available during war time

Dont we keep War time Reserves separately

Anonymous said...

Cost per Rafale is 1600+ crores (8.9 bilion/36=rate of INR).


5,93,31,85,00,000 crores if we go by todays rate.

Sof for each aircraft= 59,331,8500000/36= 16481069444 crores i.e 1600 crores per Rafale. This must be life cycle cost.


I dont think any of these Rafales will be stationed near western border, they will be only for China. I even remember an old article saying "MMRCA Aircrafts will be stationed in North East."

That makes sense. PLAFF's massive numbers and its steady rise is a cocern for Indian Policy makers and IAF may deploy mix of Super MKI+ Rafales+ Tejas on bases near eastern border.


I also think we need to take a look at Super MKI now that Rafale deal has been inked. PAK FA/ FGFA will take time. Its supposed powerplant izdeliye 30 is in development now and Pak Fa still has glitches.

Super MKI with is 15 ton engine, better avionics and AESA radar will be a huge asset.

What do you think about my analysis?

Sidharth said...

http://idrw.org/rafale-deal-is-it-really-an-exorbitant-deal-as-claimed-by-experts/

Someone has taken a good class of these so called Experts.

Arh93 said...

Prasun'da (1)As much I know that IAF got hardened air shelters in most of northern & western airbases is that true? Also do we really have underground hanger in bareilly & Hindon ab? (2) but what is the situation in Tezpur, Chabua, Hasimara? (3)IAF SU 30 MKI got their New generation hardened air shelters by now? (4)IAF going to field their Rafel in which airbases?

Pierre Zorin said...

People should think carefully when they use the word "War". Whilst various PS and Computer games have made it look like a paint ball fight - war is hideous, economically draining and unless one has a clear 50% advantage - results could be disappointing after wasting billions of resources and lives. Short term punitive strikes, skirmishes and TAR - targeted armed response - that is all that can be contemplated in today's volatile world. I would rather see the Buffalo Bill remedy - by skinning and dumping Paki and its friends in a sinking hole and cash in on what Prasun aptly styled - 30 Trillion FDs!

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

Ever since you posted this article on your blog the various so called experts (you know who) are posting stories of elaborate ToT related to weapons & avionics package related to the Rafael that India will receive from Dassault.

1. Will you please clarify if India will or will not receive any ToT?

2. IAF had signed a contract for ASRAAM last year. So why not just stick with Meteor & scrap the deal for ASRAAM? Meteor can do everything that ASRAAM can.

Regards,

VIKRAM

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

PrasunDa,

I had a Qs. about INDIA's retaliatory option.

Last Sunday on NDTV's program The Big Fight the panel that had gathered suggested that India does not carry out covert operations inside Pakistan to eliminate Hafiz Saeed, Dawood Ibrahim among others because then Pakistan will retaliate by targeting Indian political leaders inside India.

Will you please clarify if their observation is true?

http://www.ndtv.com/video/news/the-big-fight/uri-attack-fallout-what-are-india-s-options-432530

Thanks,

Sujoy

RAT said...

Hi Prasun,

Seems Mr. Shukla cannot digest the deal and has gone into verbal diarrhoea again. Unable to digest the defeat of his propaganda for sale of F-35 is still posting treads of deal not being clear and claiming it expensive with no follow on orders.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir ,

https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status/780816826175324162

You think Pakistan doing so hilarious acts in this high tech era of surveillance?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAT: LoLz! Yes, I see that lots of self-styled 'experts' nowadays are opening their mouths without delving deep into the subject. For instance, 45% of the waters now flowing through the Indus River in Pakistan gets emptied into the Arabian Sea without any usage whatsoever, meaning Pakistan is wilfully wasting its natural resources. India can consequently claim & legally obtain a greater quantum of water for effective utilisation from any neutral arbitration tribunal. In other words, under a revisit of the IWT in which India asks for re-negotiation of terms & conditions, India can legally obtain a much greater quantum of water for annual usage. So, I don't understand on what grounds certain Indian journalists & 'experts' are claiming that a revisit of the IWT will be an inhuman act.

To ARPIT KANODIA: You will indeed be surprised at the level of Pakistan's intellectual mediocrity. For instance, the tunnels which China had built along the KKH have already been succumbing to the forces of nature. Watch this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3pZ7MfIh-k

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Here's a far more realistic debate on this issue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adLHLIKuleA

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) There will be 100% ToT for undertaking fully localised MRO activities for the Rafale fleet. 2) AIM-132 ASRAAM is for Jahuar IS/DARIN-3 only.

To ARH93: HAS or underground shelters are reqd only for those air bases located within the hinterland along with which MRO base repair depots are located. Forward air bases close to the borders don't require them because these air bases are used only during wartime & that too only for refuelling purposes at nighttime & never host combat aircraft squadrons during peacetime. A Rafale for instance will be located during wartime in bases like Agra or Gwalior but will have to go to Pathankot or Ambala or Abantipora at nighttime for a refuelling stop & then proceed ahead with its strike sortie. Chabua, Tezpur or Hashimara are all forward air bases.

To RAHUL: Peacetime combat aircraft fleet availability/serviceability is always kept at 60% & only before wartime are spares depots fully stockpiled & this process takes 3 to 6 months. No air force in the world has more than 60% combat aircraft fleet availability/serviceability during peacetime.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Once-again-Army-starts-global-hunt-for-a-new-generation-assault-rifle/articleshow/54553688.cms

http://indianarmy.nic.in/writereaddata/RFI/490/RFI%20Aslt%20Rif.pdf

BROWN DESI said...

We need more more reasonable people like Brig. Saha in public discourse as well as policy making. I can resonate with everything that he has brilliantly out forward here:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/the-uri-fiasco-and-ensuring-accountability/

Regards;
Brown Desi

Rahul said...


Dear Sir

One PAKI JF 17 has CRASHED ; LOL

Anyway ; you said that Peace time availability is 60 Percent of all Planes

So we can assume War time Availability of 100 Percent

Pakis also claim that they have built a FIVE year STOCK of spares for F 16s

Why cant we do the same for Su 30

What is the use of a LARGE Air force if your planes are not available

rad said...

hi prasun
the hunt for rifles is crazy as the requirement is sub MOA accuracy which is only present is sniper rifles.
Are we again going back to 7.62x51?. Then burst fire is out of the question as it impossible to control this caliber in auto mode.So that is over penetration of CQB.
i really wonder how a normal sepoy is expected to shoot a man sized target at 500 yards? Thats going into the domain of a sniper. My best bet is the 7.62x39 and the IWI ACE rifle. which is the caliber the world seems to realize of late,as it has got best of both worlds .what do you make of this fairy tale rifle requirement?


Siddharth said...

Prasun da,

http://indianarmy.nic.in/writereaddata/RFI/490/RFI%20Aslt%20Rif.pdf

Why IA is going for the Battle rifle (7.62 x 51mm) instead of Assault rifle (5.56 x 45mm).

Secondly, why only 165000 rifles for 1.2 million strong IA.

Thirdly, what will happen to MCIWS - ergonomically looks better - don't know about the performance.

DAshu said...

Then what happen to Ghatak, Excalliber etc ?

DAshu said...

BTW why that Army man was shadowing mian sahab , probably not to allow him to meet any officials of other countries. It's a different kind of coup I guess . Not overt but covert coup.

sbm said...

Does the IAF have any underground storage for combat aircraft at any of its bases ?

AniluVG said...

Prasunda

You are very busy nowadays.

war time business. I have a bad habit of checking your blogs three times a day.

Regards

Unknown said...

Same here i check your blog atleasr 3 times a day.

Regards

Kunal

Manoj G said...

Hi Prasun,

This article in Huffington Post argues that Indian politicians really do not care about terrorist attacks & quotes Ajit Doval to justify this argument

http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2016/09/23/why-the-indian-government-doesn-t-really-care-about-terrorism/?ncid=inblnkinhpmg00000004&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=outbrain&utm_campaign=huffpost_politics&utm_term=5818418

Will you please provide your expert view on this? Thanks.

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa,

The DAC today cleared proposals worth Rs.1900 crores.

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/electronic-warefare-systems-for-jammu-kashmir-scorpene-repair-facility-get-dac-nod/396056/

1. Can you please shed some light on this very expensive (Rs.330 crores) EW system that is being procured.

2. Which company will build the weapons repair facility for ships in Port Blair?

3. Pvt Indian defence companies like Mahindra , L&T etc are saying that they are not interested in offsets because the work provided via offset by foreign Cos is of very low quality. Can you please clear the mist.


Thanks & Regards,

VIKRAM

Rajesh said...

The multi-caliber assault rifle was never required by India. Do you agree ?? -- Rajesh Mishra.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD, SIDDHARTH, DASHU & RAJESH MISHRA: That's right. The recent RFI is primarily meant for meeting the reqmt of RR formations now using the AK-47s that are up for replacement. This is not to be confused with the reqmt for 7.62mm SLRs reqd for the IA's regular infantry forces. The RR's strength today is 65,000-strong. The RFI clearly states that the total quantity required is approximately 1,85,000 assault rifles out of which the immediate requirement is of approximately 65,000 rifles. So, the RR's reqmt should not be misconstrued as being the reqmt for the entire IA.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) That's for a wide-band jamming system (for vlocking audio & audio-visual transmissions originating from Pakiostan) to disrupt comms between the PoK-based handlers of the 'sarkari jihadis' of the PA & those sarkari jihadis who have infiltrated inside J & K. 2) That's for the long-overdue floating dry-dock that will be built & supplied by L & T.

To MANOJ G: That used to be the case with the NDA-1 & UPA-1/2 govts back in the previous decade. Not anymore.

To ANILUVG & UNKNOWN/KUNAL: Have been rather busy monitoring the recent movements of the PA's Baloch Regiments to PoK from other parts of Pakistan, since the NLI Battalions are all now deployed all along the Durand Line. BTW, do watch this hilarious debate involving arm-chair 'experts' try to dissect the Rafale MMRCA deal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aocZ4vja6KQ

One of the morons, Mohan Guruswamy, while saying that both Rafale & Su-27 are of the same vintage since he saw both the Rafale & Su-27 flying in 1989, fails to explain that back in 1989 the Su-27 was already an in-service aircraft while the Rafale in 1989 was only a technology demonstrator, i.e. he's comparing apples with oranges! Moron No.2--Saikat Dutta--talks about about procuring 'comparable aircraft' at cheaper cost without spelling out what exactly is that 'comparable' alternative. I often wonder how exactly these morons get to be featured in prime-time TV talk-shows for spewing out outrageously inaccurate filth!!!

To SBM: Why is such a question arising now? There have been adequate press-reports in the past since the previous decade about underground hangars in existence in the principal IAF air bases.

To DASHU: That Military Assistant's job was to act as the 'minder' for the Pak PM, thereby ensuring that a record of all ther movements & intreactions of the Pak PM were recorded for subsequent play-back for the PA's COAS & GHQ in Rawalpindi.

To RAHUL: How can a 5-year stockpile of spares for PAF F-16s be built up when the payment schedule for the quantum of reqd spares support is determined on a per-annum basis? It is therefore obvious that whosoever is making claims of 5-yerar spares support is totally unaware about how the logistics system works & what are its determining & affordability elements.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Excellent analysis aired last night in which Pakistani analysts explain in detail how India will legally win her case if the IWT were even to be scrapped as it is now & a whole new water-sharing treaty was negotiated:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5jk40CO_Jc

sbm said...

Yes but never know what to believe - yeh hai India!

So the underground hangars exist for combat aircraft. Wow. Always thought IAF relied only on HAS. Let me guess - Gwalior, Lohegaon are among them - underground hangars, CBRN readiness EMP hardening the works?

Anonymous said...

wrt IWT, all six river waters are used by Kashmir and going forward they are going to use more (storage et al) and Mufti saying they are short changed on water as well, so Pak has issue with Kashmir using more water? when it comes to IWT, Pak couches the aggressor as India not Kashmir.

Anonymous said...

http://www.dawn.com/news/1286698/hidden-costs-of-cpec


Raj

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

http://www.mensxp.com/special-features/today/32461-the-great-pakistan-air-force-has-crashed-2-fighters-1-drone-even-before-a-single-bullet-is-fired-from-the-indian-side.html

Two PAK Fighter + 1 drone within 10 days. Go going for PAF.


http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/russia-wants-to-de-hyphenate-india-and-pakistan-should-delhi-worry/

Russia is slowly moving from Indian side and tries to balance both Pakistan & India equally.

I think it is bad news for India.

During war what Russia will do. Please Comment.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Anonymous said...

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/india-conducted-surgical-strikes-last-night-in-pok-to-safeguard-our-nation-defence-ministry-3055715/

Awesome and congrats to our brave soldiers... and we should permanently acquire those positions do not let them go otherwise it can be used again. Also our target should be ISI officials..sooner or later a bullet in the head should be well placed in them. !!

Finally! About time we did this. Sir want the actual op-details?

Regards
Ron

Rajesh said...

At last the open surgical strike made on 4 camps of Pakistani muslamic terrorists across LOC in POK. Severe damage to them reported. Great news and details awaited. - Rajesh Mishra.

Rajesh said...

Great news. 4 camps of Pakistani terrorists attacked after crossing the LOC in POK. Severe damage to the terrorists reported. Details awaited. - Rajesh Mishra.

El Phocho said...

Dada,
According to Times Now, Indian Army has conducted several surgical strikes in PoK across LoC. Can you shed some light into this issue. I don't trust these media channels, especially Times Now as they tend to make exaggerated claims. If Army did conduct the strikes did they use the Para SF? Did they take out terrorists waiting to come into our country? How many did they kill? Etc.
Thanks in advance dada.

Gopu said...

Positive signs for the Indian economy. Although there is a lot to be done since most of the current steps were meant to reverse the formerly impending UPA-2 economic train wreck.

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/Media/GCR1617/GCR_16.pdf

Also, it seems surgical strikes were indeed conducted the day after Uri.

Why is there an RFI for re-arming the RR, especially since the RR are mostly a J&K-specific formation? What will be the RR's main role in the future since the source of J&K's instability will largely vanish in the next 5 years?

Is it true that the SCE-200 rocket engine is based on the RD-120? Did this involve ToT from Russia and/or Ukraine?

Unknown said...

prasun da

news of surgical strikes by indian army across LoC. i think the government has the gumtion to kick paki ass

regards

kunal

Anup said...

Sir,

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/how-india-reacted-to-armys-uri-response/20160929.htm

Which Aircraft they use for ParaTroopers ?

Will Pakistan respond?

Anonymous said...

@Prasunda
Considering that the LoC is a ceasefire line with both Pak and India Manning either side of the line, I was interested to know of the airspace considerations.

So, suppose India launches an aerial surgical strike going beyond the LoC does it count as violation of Paki air space?

Or are there arrangements and rules and regulations to be followed during peacetime as with LoC? I am eager to know.

Of course I understand if India regards the whole of PoK as it's own then it is really not violating Paki airspace. However, crossing the LoC aerially would still bring in PAF aircrafts into the scene for defence of perceived Paki airspace.
-Abs

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir

Your comment on this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0I7RBh8es3I

The Indian said...

Prasun,
So Modi has shown that he has guts!Do you think any repercussions from Paki side!If so what?

DAshu said...

So this is what occupied your time last week to pick coordinates for the surgical strikes. But this is a good start for coming march and the eventual 2018.

prashant said...

sir,
some news reports cite that RM,NSA,COAS were monitoring the cross border raid in Pok at Army headquarters..& that the indian SF were wearing helmets mounted with cameras & that these cameras beemed live videos to delhi...is it possible ?
does such technology exist with the IA ?
& Dont u think a strike just 3km inside Pok is true..could the distance be more ?
if the plan was to go in only 3km ..then why use SF..why not regular infantry ?

Ravi_N said...

Our govt says Army commandos had a surgical strike. But then this video is going around among Pakistani twitter vallas. What is true?
https://twitter.com/iihtishamm/status/781566312174776320

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

I was so happy this afternoon listening about surgical strikes across LOC and now i read below from DAWN.

Is the below exert from DAWN true, if so what will be india's reaction and can we do any thing about it:

An Indian army official based in New Delhi said, “It is confirmed one soldier from 37 Rashtriya Rifles with weapons has inadvertently crossed over to the Pakistan side of the Line of Control”.

Avoiding connecting the capture to today's firing incident, he said such incidents of people including civilians crossing the frontier by mistake have happened in the past from both sides.

Building a case in favour of India, he added that those who strayed are returned.

“Pakistan has been informed [of the soldier's crossing] through the DGMO on hotline,” ANI News quoted Indian Army sources as saying.

On Pakistan's side, two officials based in Chhamb sector said the Indian soldier with weapons was captured at 1330 local time on Thursday.

Separately, security sources confirmed the same to Dawn.com. The sources said a 22-year-old Indian soldier by the name Chandu Babulal Chohan was taken into custody by Pakistani forces.

They added that at least eight Indian soldiers were killed. The bodies of the Indian soldiers have not been recovered by the Indian Army from the site of the skirmishes at the LoC. Security sources claim an attempt to recover the bodies by the Indian Army has not been made yet as they fear coming under fire from Pakistan Army troops.

In his show Capital Talk on Geo News, Hamid Mir said that 14 Indian soldiers were killed in two sectors. Defense analyst Major General (Retd) Ijaz Awan, who was on his show, confirmed his claim."

====================================

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Varunn said...

2 Chinese engineers killed by Baloch rebels. 4-5 more attacks and China will scrap CPEC indiatoday.intoday.in/story/baloch-rebels-attack-kills-two-engineers/1/775273.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VARUNN: Do read this:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1286840/questions-raised-over-fate-of-gwadar-port

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: Firstly, Pakistan will find it highly embarrassing to admit that the PA suffered fatal casualties anywhere along the LoC because officially Pakistan claims that PoK is 'Azaad Kashmir' & therefore there are no PA detachments inside that area. If India now produces video-proof of the SOF raid across the LoC, then the PA's existence inside the so-called Azaad Kashmir will be revealed & Pakistan will be forced to admit that all along it has been lying to the whole world. Hence the rather subdued & backfooted retorts emanating from Pakistan. Secondly, the PA will be hard-pressed to retaliate decisively along the LoC since almost all its NLI Battalions who hail from PoK are now deployed along the Durand Line. Instead, Punjabis, Pathans & Balochis are deployed there & thery are extremely risk-averse & therefore they do not like to be on the receiving end of the IA's field artillery fire-assaults.

To RAVI_N: That video-clip is quite dated & is of 1990s vintage.

To PRASHANT: Only fanboys of Tom Clancy & Hollywood/Bollywood flicks will conjure up such speculative munbo-jumbo. When operating in hostile territory, COMSEC rules apply & ZERO emission of any kind in any spectrum is the norm. Only UAVs operating at a standoff distance are authorised to receive/transmit data.imagery.

To ABS: No, the airspace across the LoC covering the whole of PoK (inclusive of Gilgit/Baltistan) isn't sovereign Pakistani airspace since Pakistan refers to part of PoK as Azaad Kashmir while the status of Gilgit/Baltistan is like no-man's land because they're not part of Pakistan as per Pakistan's own constitution. India can therefore deploy its offensive airpower deep inside the whole of PoK through its various air bases inside J & K, whereas inside PoK the only available military air base is in Skardu. Hence the PAF will be extremely wary of vertical escalation of any kind against the IAF.

To ANUP: Its is SF (Para), & not paratroopers.