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Thursday, August 10, 2017

Likely Points Of PLA Ingress Into India

Needless to say, any ingress by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into India-controlled territory will be small-scale, shallow in depth and of a temporary nature, primarily due to the vagaries of the weather, with the commencement of winter snowfall throughout the LAC from November ensuring that the PLA is unable to stay put in a dug-in manner between now and November. The following slides illustrate the likely ingress areas and the locations of India’s quick-reaction military detachments and logistics bases.
North Ladakh
Southern Ladakh
Himachal Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Back in mid-2001, I was a witness to a PLA Army ‘transgression’ in the Taksin area of Arunachal Pradesh, which was then manned by a Battalion of the Gorkha Rifles. A 1,400-strong PLA Army contingent, comprising only 360 armed personnel and the rest comprising buglers and drum-beaters all waving China’s red-coloured flags, rolled in well past 3am in the morning and formed an arc around GHORA OP. At dawn, when the PLA’s presence was fully assessed, the Indian Army decided to respond in kind later that night. Meanwhile, throughout the day, the buglers and drum-beaters were playing tunes of Bollywood songs. Well past mid-night, the Gorkha Battalion began redeploying to the immediate surrounding mountain ridges as part of an outflanking move. By dawn, the PLA infantrymen were being stared down by the fully armed Gorkhas sitting on dominating high ground. Soon a white-colour flare was fired by the surrounded PLA contingent below, and the Indian Army immediately reciprocated (this being the signal for accepting the PLA’s request for a flag meeting. An Indian Army contingent comprising some 20 personnel—led by a Brigadier—and accompanied by an official of the State Intelligence Bureau (SIB) came within 200 metres of the Senior Colonel who was leading the PLA contingent. The Senior Colonel through hand-signals requested the Brigadier to come over to the area where the PLA contingent was camping. The Brigadier responded by signaling through his hands that the meeting ought to be held in the mid-point. The Senior Colonel agreed and as he started advancing forward, the soldiers behind him started retracing a few of their steps backward. When the two contingent commanders were face-to-face, not a word was exchanged and all that the Senior Colonel did was to unfurl a poster attached to a flagstaff, which said in English: YOU ARE IN CHINESE TERRITORY. PLEASE WITHDRAW. Without waiting for an answer, he next beckoned some of his subordinates to come forward who bore giveaways like woollen blankets and winter clothing. They laid these on the ground and without uttering a word, the entire contingent began withdrawing back to China-controlled territory. Needless to say, the standoff was over, having lasted less than 18 hours, and the entire stockpile of giveaways was subsequently distributed among the local inhabitants of Taksin with the compliments of the Indian Army. 


bhoutik said...

btw, this was a former Editorial Producer at NDTV.
(sorry i'm posting the foreign policy link again in this thread. posted this on the previous thread but since this just came on, so...)

note the subtle put down in the indian express article. women's righs, social causes, nothing to do with muslims/islam, and yet, he has now become a 'hindu' nationalist/muslim oppressor. the muslim writer who wrote it has an instagram account filled with romanticized pictures of burqa clad women and madrassah children. there's a need for more tarek fatahs calling these closet extremists out, not just the mullahs.

Ishaan said...

Hi Prasun, Can you post a brief narrative on our quick reaction elements. The units which comprise our QRF? And isn't the location of such assets classified? I mean you have posted their locations. I know you are a sane headed individual and won't post anything compromising or classified.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ENGDOC SOCIETY: On paper, the Indian Army HQ is required to adhere to a MBT force structure that calls for 3,149 higher-end MBTs, including 1,657 T-90s, 242 Arjuns and 1,250 T-72M1 Combat Improved Ajeyas (CIA). The Army’s gameplan is to have 21 Regiments of T-90S, 34 Regiments of upgraded T-72CIAs, and six regiments of Arjuns by 2020.

Presently, there are 71 Armoured Regiments equipped with 2,418 T-72s (comprising 754 T-72Ms and 1,664 41.5-tonne T-72M1s), 124 Arjun Mk.1s and a few hundred T-55s (out of the 1,781 procured). In 2002, India purchased 250 Polish SKO-1T DRAWA-T digital tank fire-control systems for 250 T-72M1s that were upgraded to T-72CIA standard. Subsequently, another 692 T-72M1s were upgraded to T-72CIA standards thus by being retrofitted with ELBIT Systems-supplied Thermal Imaging Stand Alone Systems (TISAS) and Thermal Imaging Fire Control Systems (TIFCS) at a cost of around Rs 1,150 crore (US$250 million). Another 300 T-72M1s will be upgraded next. All these upgraded T-72M1s have also be retrofitted with 12-cylinder water-cooled V-46TK 1,000hp diesel engines (taken from existing T-90S), while the APUs will be installed in future. In addition, 135 BLT-72 armoured bridgelayers were ordered in 2011, while Poland’s Bumar Labedy has delivered 204 WZT-3M Armoured Recovery Vehicles (ARV) under a $275 million signed in mid-January 2012. Prior to that, since 1999 the IA had received 556 WZT-3M ARVs from Poland.

In February 2001, India bought the first batch of 310 47.5-tonne T-90S worth $795 million (Rs 3,625 crore), of which 124 were delivered off-the-shelf, 86 came in semi-knocked down kits (for licenced-assembly by the MoD-owned HVF in Avadi). This was followed by a follow-on contract worth $800 million being inked on October 26, 2006 for another 330 T-90S MBTs that were to be built with locally-sourced raw materials. Their deliveries began on August 24, 2009, with each costing Rs 17.5 crore. The third contract, worth $1.23 billion was inked in December 2007 for 347 T-90S coming in fully knocked-down condition from Russia worth Rs.4,900 crore. These T-90S will all be re-engined with uprated 1,200hp engines sourced from Russia.

So far, 124 Arjun Mk.1s and 118 Arjun Mk.1As have been ordered, while 118 Arjun Mk.2s built with HNS, 40 BLT-Arjun bridging systems, 60 Arjun ARVs and 20 CMF-Arjuns have yet to be ordered.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

WTF! BBC Newsroom personnel watching porn during live newscast:

The Rohingya Problem:

How the US Will Domesticate North Korea:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BHOUTIK: It indeed is a prime example of the most woolly-headed mumbo-jumbo, or classic yellow journalism. The Amarnath Yatra has been going on for the past several hundreds of years and transportation logistics has improved over the years, so has the volume of tourist-devotees, which is perfectly logical. It has nothing to do with hyper-ventilating nationalism. This is why I always say that the devil lurks within the detail. Convenient overlooking of recorded history through oversimplification can only lead to delusional assumptions & conclusions.

It is like demanding the building of public toilets without first teaching their end-users the benefits of personal/public hygiene. And when that happens, this is the end-result:

Bihar's Villagers Destroy Toilets:

To ISHAAN: If they're classified, then why are they clearly visible on GoogleEarth? Do you want the Govt of India to block access to GoogleEarth? Do you think the adversary is totally unaware of such locations despite possessing several overhead recce satellites??? Do you now understand what kind of querstion you had asked? Does it have any head or tail? As for QRF elements, each picture is worth a thousand words. Just look at the forward helipads smack along the LAC & their rear-area ALGs. What are they there for? Decoration?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AVIRAL, AVIRAL SINGH & ANKIT SINGH: Ammo & Eatables with China & Pakistan Markings Recovered:

The Govt of India must note down the serial nos of the Made-in-China hand-grenades & ask China who the designated end-user (based on end-user certificate data) of those grenades was, & why did the end-user divert such consignments to those who wanted to use those hand-grenades inside India.

Ludwig said...

Hello Prasun Sir, I hope you had a good Rakhi. Thanks for answering the previous questions I asked. I had a few further questions:

1) What are the dimensions of ORSAM launcher? What's it's cell dimensions?
2) What is the timeline on QRSAM?
3) What are your thoughts on this Can we see an increase in number of Subs from 24, and to what number?

A also had a few speculative questions.
4) Why haven't we invested in a Uniform Launch system, shouldn't that increase flexibility of IN vessels.
5) What about a CIWS like KashtanM? Why didn't IN go for it instead of AK630? Was it due to incompatibility with Israeli Radar?

The Reason I am obsessing over Quad packing QRSAM is DK-10A. It has been speculated that 4 each can be placed in single cell in a Chinese VLS. And in terms of dimensions ESSM and Astra are very similar. Although I understand that QRSAM has a different launcher.

sbm said...

If I might ask this - how many T-90s are in service? 987?

Anonymous said...


Regarding the DRDO motor test you mentioned in the previous thread as being for the Agni-v and the SLBM, two points.

1) The accompanying picture in the DRDO newsletter shows some motor with a rather high Length/diameter ratio compared to a A-5 second stage.

2) Why would the SLBM use HTPB type propellants as this motor does when high energy propellants will be available by that time frame?

To me, it seems to be some experimental motor used for developing motor case technologies for future projects (as the DRDO newsletter indicates) rather than any prototype of a motor for A-5 or any other missile. What do you say ?


Ludwig said...

Another question sir: What will happen to Naval MRHs MOD has done another groundbreaking job by cancelling the contract. What now?

sujoy said...

Hey Prasun da, do you really think their DF 21D anti ship ballistic missile can actually work as they intended??How can a ballistic missile work against moving targets and even if it could, how are the Chinese supposed to provide the missiles with continuous target tracking data from over 2500 km away??Does thing really work or is it just another of China's terror weapons??

Thanks in advance.

Ram Bharadwaj said...

CAG has noted that IAF Jaguar's are without Auto-pilot? What is the real story behind the Auto-pilot saga for Jaguar's?

Manu Singh said...


One fact even you can't deny!

It was finally left to the Chinese to make Shooklaw look like an ignorant moron and retard!! His all puppy like happiness on his Broadsword blog has vanished in thin air !!

I guess he is soon going to have a brain attack like Nehru !!
Tsk tsk tsk !!! Some people never learn !!

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,

A good move by the government wouldn't you agree? You have been blogging about investing in MRO facilities in India for quite a while.

Best Regards

Prav said...

@ Prasun .. With the newer MBTs starting to sport 140 mm or higher caliber the leclerc for example.It seems tanks that already have autoloaders have an advantage when it comes to an upgrade to a higher caliber cannon. Shouldn't an upgrade to the arjun have had an autoloader implemented as well . I realise that you had mentioned that a leclerc style autoloader was considered for the arjun but dropped . But doesn't it seem that going forward an autoloader would be mandatory with human loader finding the larger rounds too heavy.
Here is the comparison in size between the 140 mm and the 120 mm

joydeep ghosh said...

Prasun da

your views on below links

what you said to #RAJESHMISHRA in last thread make sense but question is China is basically bhu mafia it captured inner mongolia, east turkstan/Xinziang, tibet, saksgham valey/trans karakoram tract, has grabbed land from central asian nations; used tibetan herders to encroach in land of bhutan & aruanchal, and even claiming the seas by building islands out of shoals/reefs in SCS; so how can we r anyone tackle this land grabber??


Joydeep Ghosh

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LUDWIG: I was busy over the past 72 hours with OP NIRIKSHAN (Inspection) in Kalimpong, while OP PARIKSHAN (Examination) was underway in the western seaboard & was being conducted by the IN & ICGS. 1) Dimensions are those that can accommodate Astra-1. 2) Should be ready for service-induction by 2020. 3) Highly speculative stuff, rest assured. 4) How can that be done when the missiles come from different OEMs? Not every OEM is like Raytheon, which designs, develops & builds all kinds of PGMs under one roof. 5) As I had explained several times before, Kashtan failed miserably when operating in the warm waters of the southern hemisphere. Don’t believe all that is being peddled by Chinese internet fanboys based in Singapore or Canada. 6) No NMRH contract was ever signed. What was on the table was only a commercial offer from Sikorsky that was already close to being 5 years-old & the quoted pricing could no longer be frozen.

To SBM: All T-90S ordered so far have been delivered. & minus those 2 now in Alabino for the Tank Biathlon, all the rest are in service in-country.

To KRITAVARMA: 1) The DRDO Newsletter also states that the motor has a submerged nozzle with provision for actuation, which is also realised indigenously. What does that indicate? 2) The tests were meant to establish the structural integrity of the composites-built propellant tank. If you want the A-5 & the SLBM to be as light as those in service in the rest of the world, then all 3 propellant tanks of the ICBM & SLBM will have to be built with composites.

To SUJOY: As I had explained several times earlier, missiles like DF-21D & DF-26 are not ASBMs, but instead carry EMP-generating warheads designed to render shipborne & airborne radars inoperable. They are not meant for physically hitting the decks of warships.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: That was with the Jaguar IS with DARIN-1/2 avionics. The Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 has both autopilot & TACAN—both developed by HAL’s Korwa Division.

To MANU SINGH: Uh-Oh! What has he done this time?

To RAJ: Yes it is. Air Works had also been contracted by AgustaWestland for providing MRO support for the IAF’s AW-101s. But a country like India requires at least 4 MRO facilities. Companies like IAI’s Bedek Aviation Division & Lufthansa Teknik should also be encouraged to set up such MRO facilities in India.

Pierre Zorin said...

well gives the airborne a new meaning. May be a new airborne Sex corps consisting of pervs on Chinese airlines is on the cards who would touch Chinese women inappropriately giving a valid complaint from the Chinese about encroaching on the Chinese territory!!

Anonymous said...

Prasun da,

I could not figure out why 2 t-90s broke down in race of tank biathlon 2017 on 10/8/17 .
Such a embarrassment for india.


Zaphon said...

Mr. Sengupta, I am a little confused about T-90 numbers. From the above figures India should have 987 in service. But wasn't there supposed to be production of 1000 - with local components- or so in India of which only 300 odd have been produced to date making a total of around 1250 or so T-90 in India service equipping 21 regiments plus reserves? Any clarity would be greatly appreciated.

Manu Singh said...


Shooklaw is making flip flop statements. One day he informs, the crisis is ending, all is over, Chinese troops are leaving. Next day, he informs that Indian villages are being emptied and war might happen. Where the hell he gets his news from ??

Moreover, if you see his writings on OBOR and Chinese behaviour in the past, he was acting like a Chinese poodle. Now, when Chinese have become belligerent, he has lost his face.

What a retard !!!

SUVO said...


AVIRAL said...

rad said...

hi prasun
regarding darin 3 jags , does i t mean that the jags can go in lo - lo all the way with out pilot input to the target?.does it have altitude hold as well?? is the low level attack mode assisted by the radar or only done by the auto pilot and Doppler for altitude hold??

you said we cud not develop IIR sensors , you mentioned Israel was helping us on that?

do we have a program to make similar missiles like df-21 with emp warheads? what would be the effective emp range of a df-21 missile IE warhead range? can the barak 8 take it down ?

why arent the talks of super sukhoi progressing? russians are up to something ?

does loosing the tank biathalon mean something in the efficiency of the tank crew or tank??

Anonymous said...


1) As far as I understand, the submerged nozzle indicates nothing specific: a number of modern solid motors for first as well as upper stages have such nozzles.

2) I agree that a lighter composite motor case with a more optimized insulation was being tested as mentioned in the report.

All in all, it may be going too far to read it as a prototype of the A-5 or SLBM second stage motor. An experimental motor to test new technologies is more likely.


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PRAV: For greater firepower there are 2 options: increase barrel calibre like the L55 (which complicates matters related to MBT storage, camouglaging with nets & also problematic transportation by road & rail & air), or increase barrel diameter that enables a shorter length barrel to be mounted. The latter option is definitely the preferred one & therefore autoloaders will be reqd for catering to heavier projectiles. In the Indian context, for the Arjun family the priority is firstly developing a 120mm smoothbore cannon since HESH rounds (fired only from rifled bore cannons) are being done away with due to the availability of thermobaric rounds. Development of 140mm barrels will follow in the following decade, perhaps with a brand-new design turret & this in turn will necessitate the reqmt for a new 1,500hp powerpack, which remains elusive from the DRDO despite numerous trial-n-error efforts over the past 2 decades. This very same mistake is now being repeated for the IA’s T-72M1s & T-90S, as evidenced by this:

More expensive alternatives are available from:

The Slovakian T-72CZM4’s NIMDA powerpack from Israel (shown at DEFEXPO 2016), which conmprises a Perkins Engines Co Condor CV-12 rated at 1,000hp (the 1,200hp version is standard on the Challenger 1 & 2 MBTs), coupled to a US-supplied Allision Transmission XTG-411-6 fully automatic transmission with four forward and two reverse gears, thermostat cooling system and a 650A alternator.

But the most practical & obvious choices come from Russia: The first is the 39 litre 12-cylinder V-92S2F turbocharged diesel engine, developing 1,130hp, that is already on-board the T-90MS Tagil & is built by the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant, located about 350km south of Nizhny Tagil. The second is the A85-3AX-diesel engine (on the T-14 Armata MBT) capable of producing up to 1,500hp, although it is presently. downrated at 1,350hp.

Like Japan & India, Russia too has developed HNS, known as 44C-SV-W, which was developed by the JSC Institute of Steel—also known as the NII Stali Institute for Protection—in Moscow. The new steel, made via electroslag melting. In addition, the Armata’s 2A82 125mm smoothbore gun, an improvement on the 2A46M (on the T-90S), can also be retrofitted on the T-90S as it is 17% more powerful than the Rheinmetall 120mm cannon. The 2A82A fires the new Vacuum-1 APFSDS round called Vacuum-1, along with the 8km-range 3UBK21 missile that replaces the INVAR. Therefore, the Russian firepower/powerpack upgrade solution for the IA’s T-90S appears to be the best one on offer.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: Here we go again! First there were the Dragon’s Tentacles, now comes the Dragon’s Claws, and all this when two threads ago I had already exposed the Dragon’s Testicles (see: Why are these ‘desi’ armchair specialists consistently overlooking the TESTICLES? On the naval front, geography indeed favours India since the PLAN, unlike the IN, won’t be able to benefit from force-multiplier platforms like LRMR/ASW platforms & MALE-UAVs & hence the PLAN’s maritime domain awareness/situational awareness capabilities will be extremely limited & deficient when operating in the IOR or even in the Bay of Bengal.

As for airpower, why the hell should the PLAAF launch offensive sorties from any location facing the LAC when not a single dedicated air base exists there? Lhasa Gonggar, Shigatse, Linzhi & Ngari Gunsa are ALL civilian airports devoid of armament storage igloos & they can at best accommodate only limited numbers of MRCAs in enclaves located within such airports. Furthermore, the PLAAF lacks terrain-avoidance MMRs for its MRCAs & hence high-flying JH-7A bombers flying from Xinjiang or any other location in Yunnan or Sichuan will easily be detected & tracked by IAF airspace surveillance radars at long ranges. Consequently, as far as strike options against IAF air bases go, the PLA won’t strike from inside TAR, but from Xinjiang, Yunnan & Sichuan & that too with TBMs & IRBMs armed with cluster munitions, with close to 70 missiles being used against each IAF air bases located in J & K, UP & Assam. The ALGs won’t be destroyed, as the PLA will want to use them for its own logistics sustenance & hence the PLA will try its best to capture them intact by using heliborne SOF elements as I had earlier explained. This then leaves the IAF with only 1 option: a retaliatory-strike with BrahMos-1 Block-3 NLOS-BSMs aimed at destroying all TBM/IRBM launch-pads available to the PLA, while the IAF’s Su-30MKIs focus on destroying all the culverts on China’s national highways & railway tracks passing through TAR, thereby crippling the PLA’s ground-based logistics support networks. China thus knows only too well that any military option against India is unwinnable & therefore it is now scratching its head WRT de-escalating the war rhetoric & resort to lying to its domestic audience.

To PRAVIN: Were such MBTs ever designed/developed for use in such grueling biathlons? It’s more like using ordinary automobiles on Formula-1 race-tracks. Excessive wear-n-tear within a compressed timeframe will always lead to mechanical failures.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ZAPHON: The follow-on tranches of locally-built T-90S were never ordered by the IA. That option wasn’t exercised. Only the first tranche of locally-built T-90S was ordered & delivered by Avadi-based HVF.

To MANU SINGH: That’s happening because he is unable to connect the dots. In reality, it is China that has been issuing all kinds of figures about the number of IA troops in the standoff area, meaning it is steadily reducing the figures so as to convince its domestic audience that India is de-escalating & that’s China’s hyper-ballistic threats & rants are having the desired effect. In fact, 2 days ago, a FAKE NEWS about such ‘unilateral Indian de-escalation’ was highlighted in some Pakistani TV channels as well. In both Nathang & Kupup the regular annual mobilisation/acclimatisation exercises of the IA are now underway & they have nothing to do with the standoff. In fact, the clearest explanation of the Dragon’s Forked Tongue was telecast yesterday here:

It is therefore China that has now got entabgled in its own web & a prisoner of its own words. That’s what the real story is all about now. And of course no one is as yet aware of OP NIRIKSHAN, details of which I will be able to share by next month.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Watch this to read what the outgoing Pakistani High Commissioner to India Abdul Basit wrote about the former Foreign Secretary & now Pakistani Ambassador to the US, Aizaz Ahmed Chaudhary:

Unknown said...

Watch this

Anonymous said...

Sir, i have a question,
These Integrated Battle Groups, are they separate strike divisions or are they part of our 3 strike corps?

Long ago i read some one described them as "forward based elements" of our strike corps. (Then aren't two strike corps already near borders?)

I guess, what i want to know is are they Independent or are they part/divisions of corps sized formations.
Because then 8 IBG plus 3 strike corps would be a massive offensive force.

Also what are their composition and how are they different?


Anonymous said...


1) Are there enough Brahmos-1 Blk 3 missiles DEPLOYED to take out all PLA TBM launch pads that would target our air bases? What if they strike first with their conventional TBMs/IRBMs. Wo'nt that put all airbases out of action ?

2) PRC has escalated their rhetoric to an extent where their hands are tied. Not doing anything after this will make them look like paper tigers. Some action from their side is inevitable. Hope our armed forces have the freedom to preempt in the event that agression from that side is inevitable.


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Yes, provided the navigational waypoints are recorded in a mission planning system & then uploaded into the Jaguar’s mission/flight management computer. Altitude hold is achieved through the EL/M-2052 AESA=MMR’s terrain-avoidance mode. Nothing else is reqd. Autopilot is an all-passive system. Here’s a report that validates all that I had stated earlier:

As for IIR sensors, all the processor chips (silicon micro-bolometres) for IR-CCDs are now coming from France’s SOFRADIR/ULIS. There are no plans in India to make BM equipped with EMP-generating warheads. For intercepting such missiles, Raytheon SM-3/SM-4-type interceptors are reqd & they in turn need to be networked with early-warning radar networks—both ground-based & ship-based.

To KRITAVARMA: As far as I’m concerned, there is no scope for ifs, buts & maybes, since it was all explained last year at a seminar addressed by Dr V K Saraswat of NITI Aayog & several slides were also shown to illustrate the applications of such innovations on both ICBMs & SLBMs.

To VSJ: Of course they’re separate & they all come from the Pivot Corps formations. No Strike Corps of the IA is ever stationed close to the IB. The IBGs are meant to make only shallow thrusts into enemy territory, & not penetrate deep. They only help create the necessary space reqd for the Strike Corps formations to further exploit if there’s a need for deep thrusts into enemy territory. In essence, the IBGs are the first responders as a quick-reaction force. Besides the Strike Corps, there are at least eight Independent Armoured Brigades that were earlier maintained as reserves & now these have been transferred to the Pivot Corps formations based close to the IB & have since been married to the BMP-2 ICV-equipped Regiments of the earlier defensive RAPIDS Divisions. That’s what an IBG is all about & that’s why even the Pivot Corps formations now have offensive manoeuvre warfare capability that can be put into effect within 24 to 48 hours from the word GO.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To Ashwatthama: 1) LoLz! War-gaming isn’t a Nintendo or Xbox video game that is always one-sided. Hence, before initiating kinetic campaigns, the end-state is always figured out in great detail. In terms of application of AirLand firepower it is obvious that at best there will be a stalemate for both parties, & no one will be able to claim a decisive victory. Therefore, an outbreak of intensive military hostilities is totally ruled out, even if it is a 2.5-front scenario. Secondly, the PLA’s Strategic Rocket Force as well as the PLA Theatre Commands do not possess the quantum of TBMs reqd for rendering all IAF air bases inoperable because of the sheer multiplicity of air bases available to the IAF throughout northern & central India. In contrast, there are only 3 airports & 3 helicopter bases of consequence in TAR that can host PLAAF’s MRCAs. Hence, in a retaliatory IAF strike, China will stand to lose a greater quantum of its ground-based transportation infrastructure. If China could not militarily capture the uninhabitated islands in Japan’s Senkaku Chain, then it certainly has no stomach for incurring huge losses by trying to capture any portion of Indian territory that it knows only too well will be fiercly defended.

BTW, here’s am amateurish war-gaming done by the ‘desi’ patrakaars:

2) Even if the PLA is forced to act militarily, it will never do anything in the western & central sectors, especially in the China-India-Nepal trijunction as many are speculating, since Beijing will not want to antagonise Nepal, which has a dispute with India WRT the Kalapani enclave. In the western sector too the PLA’s armoured warfare capability is inferior since it will have to go uphill whereas the IA will just have to steamroll downhill with its armoured brigades & recover large quantum of territory in Demchokm Depsang Bulge & Spanggur Gap. Nor will the PLA try to disturb the Bhutan-China-India trijunction in northwestern Arunachal Pradesh. Instead, the real target will be Tawang (to which China attaches great importance & hence refers to AP as Southern Tibet). As a secondary feint, a second attack, albeit a shallow one, can be launched against Kibithu & Walong.

To MANU SINGH: IA’s on-going EX in Sikkim Explained:

To PIERRE ZORIN, BHOUTIK & KAUSTAV: Incredibl;e India never ceases to amaze us:

School by Day, Dance Bar by Night:

As I had stated before, career-Yogis should stick to spiritual enlightenment matters, for they are totally ignorant about matters concerning public administration or social re-engineering or social contract implementation/management. These are simply not the domains of expertise of such career-Yogis.

Anonymous said...


1) What else did Dr. Saraswat explain in the seminar ? Are we moving to high energy (better than HTPB based) propellants for the A-5 and SLBM ?

2) Did Dr.Saraswat confirm that the motor referred to in the newsletter used a prototype of the motor casing for stage of the A-5/SLBM rather than a tech. demonstrator ?


Brown Desi said...

Hard to believe whatever is reported on Chinese and Indian media about the stand off.

I agree with you Prasun about Chinese propensity to strike in AP than in Sikkim. When do you reckon the National Military University will materialise the bill was passed sometime in 2015 and no movement yet. These MOD bureaucrats and Netas are doing more damage to India than enemies at present.

Am I correct in assuming that current Stand Off is purely staged by Chinese to deplete India's position regarding their involvement in CPEC going through Gilgit Baltistan.


Brown Desi

sbm said...

What do you think of the conclusion of this author who says strategic defiance of China is a non-starter - no UNSC membership or NSG membership? Touring Chinese areas for seven days? There is undoubtedly some truth in force levels but ask why is strategic defiance seen as a non-starter? This is the same guy who wrote a rubbish article on F16 acquisition and another suggesting that integrated theatre commands in India could pave way for a coup. But this one puzzles me - is he advocating capitulation?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Firstly, who is the author? Has he/she got a name? Secondly, the author is definitely part of a team that was recently invited to Chiona for the usual annual chit-chat & which also includes conducted visits to a PLA Army, Navy & Air Force establishment. Thirdly, it is not India that is reqd to display strategic defiance on this issue, but Bhutan & Bhutan has indeed done so. And it is beautifully explained here:

India had displayed strategic defiance when she refused to be part of the BRI Summit in Beijing & openly opposed CPEC. As to what the next steps in this path will be taken by India will be revealed in this blog’s to-be-concluded barrative later today.

To BROWN DESI: The ‘desi’ media houses were this time instructed by the PMO to refrain from retaliating with hyper-ventilating counter-rhetorics. Yet, some of them could not resist (like some vernacular channels & INDIA TODAY). The current standoff has no linkage with CPEC, simply because the standoff is on disputed territory whereas the CPEC passes through sovereign Indian territory as RECORDED in black-n-white by UNSC Resolution No.47. That’s why only China & Pakistan refer to J & K as disputed territory while the rest of the world does not. In fact, China even refused to acknowledge J & K as an integral part of India & since then has claimed that the entire J & K is disputed territory & consequently the China-India LAC is only 2,000km long, & not 4,057km if J & K inclusive of the Trans-Karakoram Tract (Shaksgam Valley) as India rightly states from a legal standpoint.

In my view, the standoff was created in order to coerce India into accepting the BRI’s legitimacy & linking BRI with BIMSTEC/BICM so that China could secure land corridor connectivity via railways from Yadong in the Chumbi Valley to both India’s Bihar State & Bangladesh after transiting through the Siliguri Corridor. This is what will be proposed by China during future negotiations with India as a confidence-building measure AFTER both sides begin withdrawing from the standoff area purely due to the worsening forces of nature later this year when winter sets in. China was earlier most anxious to secure land connectivity between Dhaka & Kunming but it has not been possible so far due to domestic instability/separatism in northern Myanmar.

To KRITAVARMA: Yes, he did as part of his presentation on CRMC & extendable nozzle technologies & lightweight composites-built rocket fuel casings. The definitive 5,000km-range ICBM & will be identical to the definitive 5,000km-range SLBM & for purposes of financial allocations, this project has been designated A-6 (inclusive of ICBM & SLBM). But the ‘desi’ journalists had gotten confused by this methodology & they consequently ASSUMED that India was developing a new, longer-range ICBM called Agni-6 (A-6)—which is way too far from the truth.

Arpit Kanodia said...


You think India accept such CBM to build rail and road from Siliguri & Bihar, while opposing Belt and Road?

Amardeep said...

Hello sir, what you think about current failure of indian T 90S in the tank baithlon semi final when india's both T 90S tank break down and Chinese type 96B TANK went into final. Do the type 96 B is better than T90S ?

Pierre Zorin said... - is this really a new exercise OR an older exercise funnelled as new? The fact the latter part of the video is staged in a desert means the footage can't be one and the same so I doubt the video's claim as a response to the Doklam crisis.

After watching some of those samples- I personally believe India has more internal enemies than external. Sheer stupidity and bastardry along with brainless acts supported by a segment of the population - that's what India's fight is against even this day and age!

Anonymous said...


1) Slides by Dr. Saraswat at IIT-B in 2013 showed a slightly different 6000+ km SLBM and a 5000 km MIRVed ICBM. Maybe the plan was modified since then ?

2)Is the project designated A-6 officially sanctioned by the govt. ?

3) The first test of the definitive ICBM will be around 2018 with deployment around 2022 and the first test of the SLBM would be around 2024 with deployment about 2027. Correct?

4) Is project A-6 run by ASL or is it run by the teams who develped the K-15 and K-4? Wo'nt those who developed the K-15/K-4 have a better grasp of SLBM requirements?

5) What happens to the current A-5 as has been tested four times upto now ? It still has the capability to strike major PRC cities from anywhere in India. A-4 and others do not have this. Given the belligerent signals from PRC, deploying several of these on an emergency basis makes sense.

6) From the Chagos trench to Beijing is 6500-7000 km rather than 5000 km. Hope 5000 km is just an official figure.


sbm said...

Author's name as given at end of TOI blog is Abhijit Iyer-Mitra of IPCS. He's previously written a few articles in the following vein:
In this one he even suggests the legitimacy of the fears of a coup
In the latter he suggests India join BRI and that India should confront India in the South China Sea

Earlier this year he wrote a piece for Vayu suggesting that the IAF was a constabulary level air force.

It is kind of interesting though that a nucleus of people in India seem to more than happy to embrace the idea of accepting Chinese strategic domination of their own country. Weird.

I might be reading things wrong and misunderstanding him of course.

Isn't it strange though that people like this can hop from think-tank to think-tank and never once submit a peer reviewed paper for a serious publication?

Pierre Zorin said...

Did India sign up for any of these items shown in defexpo 2016 by Israel?

Anonymous said...


How capable is PLA of actually wresting Tawang ? If it is not, could PRC indulge in a shallow grab of territory opposite Tawang or elsewhere in Arunachal with the intention of politically humiliating the current govt. and bolstering more pliable elements like the current opposition ?


Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

Just read news that Indian Navy want to be 200 ships force by 2027 which lead me to two queries:-

1. What number of Destroyers & frigates is planned to be part of this 200.

2. What is next Destroyer project once 15B is completed. Is there any information available with you about it.

Warm Regards,

Anik said...

Prasun Da
Can you confirm the authenticity of this news or its just an imagination of Desi jurnos.

Meanwhile, We are out of Tank Biathlon after engines of both our T90s failed....
How will you compare indian T90 , T72CIA with Chinese Type96A/B, Type99 & Pakistani Al-Khalid, Al-Zarar & T80O oplot..How will you compare night fighting capabilities of India, China & Pakistan.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: Of course not, since both logic & sound common-sense dictate that such transportation nodes cannot be created over disputed territory, be it at the trijunction in Sikkim or the Kalapani area. Unless & until a demarcated & denlineated IB exists between China & India, no such permanent cross-border transportation infrastructure can come up along the LAC. On the other hand, such infrastructure can exist along the LoC because India’s official position is that across the LoC the entire PoK is an integral part of India & is therefore not disputed territory.

To AMARDEEP: As far as I’m concerned, MBTs like the T-90S were never developed for competing in biathlons. So I give a damn about how MBTs perform in biathlon tournaments. Those Type 96Bs taking part are powered by 1,200hp air-cooled 6TD-2 engines & therefore those MBTs have superior power-to-weight ratios. But that doesn’t mean the Type 95B is superior to the T-90S on the battlefield.

To PIERRE ZORIN: That videoclip is a motley collection of diverse videos from different countries. It begins with an artillery firepower demo at the IA’s Deolali-based School of Artillery & then jumps to a field exercise in South Korea & then to another exercise & so on. Don’t understand what happiness such retards derive by misrepresenting facts. Whatever India has signed up for post-DEFEXPO 2016 has already been detailed in previous threads of this blog.

To KRITAVARMA: 1) The slides I’m referring to are of 2016 vintage & were presented to a closed-door seminar. They were not for public consumption. 2) If not, then how come the designation crop up? And why should it be part of slide for an official presentation? 3) It all depends on the availability of the DRDO’s tracking vessel in order to accurately plot the inbound flkight trajectories of the MIRVs. 4) RCI, ASL etc etc all work together as integrated teams. All ICBMs & SLBMs will come from the same stable. There’s no K-15, it is now officially B-05. 5) The current A-5 can carry only unitary warheads. Even A-4 when fired from northeastern India can land in mahor cities in central & southern China. There are NO credible belligerent signals emanating from China as far as developments on the ground go, only belligerent posturing through soundbytes.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: That particular retard is always self-contented in a world of his own creation, which is totally distanced from ground realities. He often comes along as a fifth-columnist.

To ASWATTHAMA: Tawang is impossible to conquer & hold as it is like a bowl surrounding on 3 sides by mountains on which the IA is perched. Do refer to the previous thread last year in which I had explained what the Sumdorong Chu/Wangdung crisis of 1986 was all about & it is all explained there in great detail. Even shallow-grabbing at either Kibithu or Walong is impossible now due to redundant IA deployments around such areas over dominating heights. If the PLA intrudes there, the intruding formations will be decimated by pulverizing field/rocket artillery fire-assaults. Read what I have stated about the incident in 2001 at GHORA Observation Post & how the IA turned the tables against the PLA then.

To PAWAN: LoLz! That number is inclusive of fast interceptor craft & support vessels, & it does not mean that the great bilk of them will be principal surface combatants. DDGs & FFGs will account for only a quarter of that figure. After P-15B will come the P-18 DDG project.

Anonymous said...

Hello Prasun,
Thanks for informative post. It is clear from the above slides and previous threads, that nearly all the fronts with China are well defended physically by both IA and IAF. But as far as I know, there is little knowledge and discourse available about our strengths/vulnerabilities in cyber-space. What's your assessment on the cyber security scenario currently, particularly on databases pertaining to Aadhar and GST? Since the Chinese have hacked into US's OPM database and stolen information in recent past, isn't there a possibility of them doing the same with Aadhar and GST databases? Thanks in advance.


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANIK: LoLz! That info is of mid-June 2017 vintage!

To AP1133: In India crucial databases are always maintained in standalone & redundant manner, rest assured. They cannot be assessed even by thumb-drives/data-cards & therefore no spy-malware can enter such data-servers. So, from a defensive standpoint, matters are well in hand. But in terms of offensive capabilities the cyber warfare domain remains highly deficient & hence information warfare cannot be waged as of now.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Tata Motors has signed a contract for supply of 3,192 units of Safari Storme 4 × 4 to the Indian Armed Forces, under a new category of vehicles–GS800 (General Service 800). India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) had floated an RFP for vehicles with three basic criteria–minimum payload capacity of 800kg; hard roof and air-conditioning. Developed indigenously, the Tata Safari Storme 4 × 4 completed a total trial duration of 15 months in various types of terrain across the country, demonstrating supreme performance in the most demanding conditions with capabilities of coping with extreme on or off-road terrain. Tata Motors’ foray into defence is progressing exactly as per the plan. First a replacement of BEML/Tatra multi-axle vehicles by Tata High Mobility Vehicle 6 × 6 in the 10 Tonne class, and now a replacement of Maruti Gypsy by Tata Safari Storme in the 4 × 4 light vehicle category, reiterates Tata Motors’ position as a leading supplier of defence mobility solutions to the Indian Armed Forces. Introduced in 2012, the Safari Storme boasts of superior on-road and off-road capabilities and robust all round performance, providing the customers with an un-matched driving experience. With a renewed power of 156 PS & 400 Nm torque the Storme provides easy drivability, swifter response and lower NVH (Noise, Vibration and Harshness), with superior fuel efficiency and best-in-class ground clearance of 200mm. The 4 x 4 variant also features ESOF (electronic shift-on-fly) technology, enabling engagement of the 4 x 4 or 4 x 2 mode on the move. Tata Motors has been associated with the country’s off-road defence and security forces, since 1958 and has supplied over 1,50,000 vehicles to the Indian Military and Paramilitary forces, so far. The company offers products and services that not only meet the needs of the domestic market, but are also positioned to meet most stringent requirements across the world. Tata Motors exports its range of specialized defence vehicles to the SAARC, ASEAN and African regions. With Tata Motors’ rich portfolio in multi-axle range like 12 × 12, 8 × 8 and 6 × 6, the company has started supplying to leading Missile OEMs across the world. The company has also established itself as a supplier of specialist vehicles for UN peacekeeping missions.

SLR Status Update:

Anonymous said...


1) At what rate will the Dhanush 155x45 guns be inducted ? I get to hear there are further delays in that process, mainly due to MoD babus. Will the first 18 be inducted this year ? Or will there be further and further trials with no induction in sight ?

2) ``Waiting for 155x52 mm guns" should not be an excuse in this case. When urgent firepower upgrade is required, better to go with what is in hand. As Admiral Gorshkov is believed to have said, best is the enemy of ``good enough".

3) The current A-5 still has the advantage of being able to hit all of PRC including Beijing from all of India, even if with a unitary warhead. Again, necessary at this stage, whatever ``signals on the ground" indicate. After all, given PRC's infra., these signals could change rapidly, by which time it would be too late.


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

A classic case of yellow journalism that is full of assumptions, over-simplifications & self-backpatting that is indicative of a very low sense of self-esteem enjoyed by Messrs.Chaubey & Jacob:

WMD storage facility in Balochistan's Kirthar Mountains:

Excellent Book on South Africa’s WMD Programmes:

Detailed Explanation of DPRK's WMD Programmes:

Pakistan-origin Fake News of August 11, 2017:

Int'l Army Games 2017 in Xinjiang

China TV Discussion on Standoff 10-8-2017:

More Embarrassment for Career-Yogis Masquerading as Public Administrator:

(Gorakhpur Hospital Tragedy)

To PIERRE ZORIN: Snapshot of Incredible India on August 11, 2017:

sbm said...

So how are guys like Iyer-Mitra feted in the think-tank circuit, making contacts in all the embassies yet the man has never written a single analytical piece subjected to review in his career? How do these think tanks work? I am a little biased but IDSA even web-commentaries are reviewed and scrutinized carefully and the peer review process can be vicious. However, most scholars there do write and do subject work to peer review. On the other hand, Mitra never has and suddenly he's a "policy expert"? How does this whole thing work? Can't be by merit.

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun, why do you have an axe to grind against Yogi Adityanath, unrealistic to expect people's mindset to change immediately a new cm is at the helm, it takes time. I suppose you do not want Momoto or nidde aka Karnataka cm style of divide and rule policies

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: 1) The delays are due to the discovery of non-OEM ball bearings that was earlier reported & the consequent CBI enquiry. But this will not result in any great delays in delivery schedules. Perhaps just a 3-month delay. 2) ATAGS will start coming in only from 2020 onwards & it will not interfere in any manner with Dhanush-45’s service induction.

To SBM: One cannot compare apples with oranges. IDSA is state-funded, while the others are not. The former’s contents/output therefore has to be much more circumspect & carefully-worded than those originating from other think-tanks that are entirely privately funded. In case of Vivekananda Int’l Foundation, the real-estate for it was given by the then NDA-1 govt in 2003 so that the building could be built, & VIF is actually one of several think-tanks financed by the RSS. But often the Govt of India funds certain research activities of such officially private think-tanks, i.e. partiality is clearly visible & hence VIF has hosted many more visiting foreign think-tank delegations (both state-owned & private) & govt dignitaries than IDSA has since mid-2014 & now.

To GANESH: LoLz! I have an axe to grind against any politician who makes all kinds of promises & yet fails to keep them & instead practices destructive identity-based politiking. Such folks are everywhere, be it in WB or UP or Karnataka, rest assured. I don’t consider any of them holy cows, but I at the very least expect them to do good on their promises. A good start for them would be to read the entire RULES OF BUSINESS rulebook of the Govt of India, which contains the do’s & don’t’s of public administration. Without doing such foundational homework, no one can partake in public governance/administration.

And yes, mindsets can be made to undergo change in a matter of hours, PROVIDED those that are entrusted with this task are empowered & are given a free hand to usher in social re-engineering. For instance, just implement the Supreme Court-mandated Police Reforms & one will see the permanent end to all forms of communal/caste violence. Coercive compellance with an uncompromising legal underpinning always produces the most desired results, rest assured. Just leave it to the likes of your’s truly to show the mirror to these Yogis-turned-politicians:

Meanwhile, here are 2 excellent reports on US offensive conventional strike options against North Korea:

Anonymous said...

Good morning !!

1) What is the status of PFBR ? I've been hearing reports from the last 5 years that it will attain the reactor will go critical by 2018, but no news till now ?
2) What do you think of the 900 MW PWR being constructed/designed based on the experience from that 30 ? 80 MW ? PWR.
3) Is the Tejas MK 2 program finally closed ? There were a lot of interesting secondary LRU's being worked at other labs.. OBOGS, Dhruti, Uttam which I don't think will be taken to their completion unless the parent program is funded.


Pierre Zorin said...

I have seen that train footage. Not much different to falling roof and no appropriate clothing and rifle for the IA.

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun, I acknowledge and appreciate your thoughts and concur with it. I understand expectations leads to disappointments
Per se, I am inclined to see ethnic harmony among Hindus, which is important for development of the state who have seen Muslim hegemony for 1200 years.
I am hopeful that positivity will prevail and all the duties will be done

mad max said...

Hello Prasun,

Hope you are doing well and as always a pleasure reading your blog. Thank you for the same.

May I request you to kindly send me the link or more details on " Read what I have stated about the incident in 2001 at GHORA Observation Post & how the IA turned the tables against the PLA then. " as I am unable to find your report/ writing on the subject. Would be highly obliged for this and it would be a very interesting weekend reading for me.

Thank you and enjoy your weekend.


Anonymous said...


1) From first prototype of Dhanush (ca. 2013) to induction ca. 2018 was 5 years. With ATAGS only now having a prototype, wo'nt it be around 2022 for it to start induction ?

2) You say that tanks are not designed for biathlon like activities. Wo'nt mechanical strain in a true combat situation be far greater ? Also, Russian T-72B3's and PRC Type 96B experienced no mechanical issues in the biathlon. What does this show?

3) You earlier said that DPRK had not tested any nuclear devices. Rather, it exploded several thousand tons of conventional explosive. Do you still stand by that assesment ? After all, the HS-14 would only make sense for a nuclear payload.


buddha said...

buddha said...

buddha said...

If china attacks there any chance to recapture akashi chin area...

buddha said...

If There Is An India-China War Who Would Win : Newsroom
Almost 80percent your view point is sounded there

Avinash said...

Dear Prasun,

I am new to your blog and got interested during the current Doklam standoff.

I have one question...Is it feasible for Chinese to divert the water from the rivers flowing out of Tibet and starve the Indians. The water wars? I mean Pakistan news always cries Indus ka paani India pi gya...hum marr rhe hain blah blah blah

Rajesh Mishra said...

If NK drops a bomb on Guam, will it be conventional or nuclear? And if it is a nuclear then will it be Chinese or not?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SULTAN: 1) The PFBR is due for commissioning this October as of now. The entire FBR is being accorded top priority because such FBRs are the only viable option now to remove water scarcity in southern & central India sice they are safe enough to be sited close to cities & urban areas & therefore that can provide the necessary electric power reqd for operating large-scale water desalination plants & water treatment plants. 2) In my view that 800mW PWR or 900mW PWR are meant for civilian power generation purposes. For naval applications, a 200mW PWR is reqd. 3) It all depends on how or whether at all SOUND COMMON SENSE can be or cannot be applied. Let me elaborate: the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3s even after re-engining will be able to stay in service for only another 15 years. Since these aircraft are now for tactical air interdiction & close air-support (as the deep-strike roles will be taken over by the Rafales & several Su-30MKIs while tactical interdiction/defensive counter-air roles will be taken over by single-engined imported MRCA like the F-16), there exists a market for fourth-generation close air-support/battlefield air-interdiction MRCAs –roughly 160 aircraft. This is where the LCA Mk.2 ought to come in, but the project will have to be INTELLIGENTLY managed, i.e. make HAL the prime contractor answerable to IAF HQ, & reduce ADA to just a design services provider. HAL in turn should be empowered through sufficient managerial autonomy to appoint its own groups of public-sector/private-sector vendors as sub-systems/components suppliers, so that HAL does only final-assembly & systems integration. Above all, HAL must be allowed to come up with a financial plan under which such an industrial consortium will be reqd to put up 80% of the developmental costs, this of course being offset by a guaranteed, irrevocable order for 160 LCA Mk.2s & HAL in turn must be able to guarantee a fully functional/ certified, weaponised LCA Mk.2 at best by 2022 (if developmental work commences in 2018). If this is done, then the IAF will not have to worry about incurring additional costs for force modernisation & it will then stop opposing the LCA Mk.2. Similarly the IN should be bold enough to use the LCA Mk.2 as a shore-based maritime-strike platform. The tandem-seater version of LCA Mk.2 can serve as LIFT for both IAF & IN. So, this can be done, but it will require enormous amounts of sound common-sense to be pooled from within the Union MoF, MoD & IAF & IN HQs so that a comprehensive project management roadmap can be articulated & adhered to.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GANESH: I suppose you mean cultural harmony, but that can only happen when energy is spent on convergences & not divergences. For instance, the Hindi language issue should not be raked up by northern Indians while states like Maharashtra should desist from spreading hatred against Biharis or any other Hindi-speaking citizens, since movement of labour is dictated purely by supply-n-demand dynamics. If Maharashtra’s nativces were as hard-working as those from Bihar or UP, then there would be no demand for workers from these 2 states. Similarly, the false notion of Sanskrit’s superiority over Tamil & other southern languages must be discredited. In addition, it must be explained that true practical nationalism is nothing else but adheting to the social contract that every Indian citizen enters into with the Govt of the day, i.e. fulfil one’s responsibilities & obligations as model citizens & in return enjoy the rights & privileges from the Govt of India. Symbolic nationalism (like singing Vande Mataram or covering oneself with the Indian tricolour) means nothing if the very same persons practice it only selectively & at the same time refuse to pay income tax or disobey municipal corporation rules/regulations on personal hygiene/public health safety or defy road/rail traffic regulations. Without agreeing on the details of two-way social contracts or practical nationalism it will be impossible to derive an over-arching unifying national narrative—which is what the present-day situation inside India is all about, & this is what is prodcucing rage, frustration, stress & intellectual confusion—all this leading to a very low level of self-esteem among the masses.

Folks will have to stop living in perpetuial denial & stop blaming everything on the next person/s, or attributing everything ill to “an act of God”, which is precisely what this career-Togi fella is now doing when he the rot has now been exposed within his own constituency. So caricatures like this career-Yogi & Siddharth Nath Singh will first have to clean their own frontyards & backyards before pointing fingers at other states. To me this latest incident ( is nothing but providence, a strong tangible signal from the Gods of Yore to those mortal human beings to shape up, stop their hypocricy & at least try to become model citizens. I hope they heed such messages & embrace humility, or their existing hubris will be suicidal.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MAD MAX: I can only conclude that you are not taking the contents of this blog seriously. For, the narrative you’ve asked for had been uploaded above along with the photos 4 days ago.

To BUDDHA: That so-called war-gaming exercise was a total hogwash & based totally on wrong appreciations. When gauging any adversary’s motives & intentions, one must always factor in the adversary’s political. economic & military capacities. This was not the case with the IDR/India Today wargaimg exercise & instead it was limited to only the military factor, which in turn presented a totally flawed analysis & equally flawed conclusions.

To AVINASH: If water diversion is to be considered, then diverting the Indus River’s flow will also deprive Pakistan of vital water resources, while doing it to the Brahmaputra will deprive Bangladesh of water resources. Do you reckon China would do that just to punish India? If if that happens, then Pakistan & Bangladesh will get punished as well. Therein lies your answer & kindly pay more attention to the World Atlas & the displayed river-flows. i.e. don’t disregard your geography classes.

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear prasunji
1) How much truth is there in the accusations of sexual assault on kashmiri women by the armed forces?
I know this is a controversial topic but I like know your opinion?

Sadly this isn't the first time our forces have been accused of these crimes. Previously there were multiple reports from punjab, manipur, srilanka, and the tribals and adivasis.

The HRW has catalogued a huge list of over 100 such crimes which they published last year.
Not all of them can be made up obviously.
There also seems to be clear apathy if not complicity from the higher ups.
Of course this behaviour is not unique to the indian forces.
Armies all across the world including the US commit these crimes and then shield their soldiers.

2) You said that we can use our brahmos missiles against IRBM launchers in sichuan and yunnan. But that how can that be when the range of the brahmos is only 300km??
Furthermore, I believe we only have one brahmos regiment facing the east. That's less than 100 missiles right? Isn't that too low?

3) What kind of damage can 70 BMs do on an airfield. How long will it be put out of action?

4) What is the range of emp warheads on the DF21 anti ship missiles. ( ie what is its "blast radius")?

5) Since the df21 knocks out ship radars, isn't that equal to crippling them? Since they won't function without radar.

6) If df21 causes damage to radars of ships radar, how long will it take to repair it? Will that ship be put out if action for the entire war?

7) Does the IN have any defense or tactics against df21?

8) You said that the CAG estimate for wwr was based on complete mobilisation. So how many divisions will the IA most likely use against pak in a short duration high intensity war?
How many days of wwr will we have if we only use that many divisions in such a case?

9) Can you please give us a detail of how many formations we have facing pak in the west.
I know we have 3 strike corps, but how many holding or pivot corps, independent armoured brigades and other formations do we have?
You also said we had combined the pivot corps and armoured brigades to IBGs. So how many of them do we have now?

I hope I am not asking classified information. If so, please ignore this question.

10) Also what is the composition of these formations. Their manpower?? Etc.
Im not sure but I think an armoured brigade has 3 armoured regiments. So that would be 135 tanks.
But please tell us about the manpower of the strike corps and their toys?
I know the one we are building against China initially was supposed to have 90,274 troops although this number has been pared down.

Again, please withhold classified info, if any.

11) Most importantly, how many such opposing formations does Pakistan have?


Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ASHWATTHAMA: 1) Work on Dhanush-45 began in 20112 & the first 3 prototypes were ready by 2014, not bad at all. The 52-cal Dhanush-52 was ready by 2016. Certainly not bad. When one learns to crawl & then walk, then ruiing becomes far easier, compared to attempting to run after mastering only crawling. The ATAGS builds upon the vital steps mastered during the Dhanush-45 project & hence the developmental timeframe can be compressed to a large extent. 2) In actual battlefields, MBTs do not cruise at top speeds. In fact, the T-90S can fire while moving at a speed of no more than 16kph, while the Arjun Mk.1 & Mk.1A can both fire when moving at a speed of 25kph. 3) Of course I do. Why should the DPRK promise to launch 4 Hwaseong-12s against Guam—an island—if a single such missile armed with a nuclear warhead is enough for the task?

On Board INS Sindhudhvaj:

China’s Cyber-Firewall:

RFI for Shipborne ASCMs:

RFI on HM-NVDs for Sagar Prahari Bal:

Pierre Zorin said...

Buddha here is another one

Pierre Zorin said...

Another incredible India that amazes me is this- after years of speaking English not only more of these Indian media personalities use English above Hindi turning into Hindlish but today more than ever when more English speaking channels are available to listen and learn English from, these clowns have no idea about stresses! Regardless of anyone's accent, the stresses are an essential part of any language and it is obvious these guys never paid heed to English grammar. E.g. India/Indian is almost universally "Inda" or "Indan ". I also hear combat = combat, adversary = adversary, not to mention development - what a tongue twister - unequivocally dawalopment and almost all v regardless = wee. This regardless of the fact all Indian languages have a V sound like Vijay, Vajra no victory is wictory. Very disappointing indeed.

Pierre Zorin said...

Now watch a USS sub

buddha said...

Sir your proposal of Tejas Mk2 is very promising ...i don't have fascination for Tejas Mk1A
U have long reach ..Plz if can directly convince Mod and Pm And acting DM to take effective steps to implement the task and it will also fulfil make in India slogan of theirs too.
Then if this moves on at least 160 tejasMk2 80 Lift version and 66 naval version will be required ...
If this is implemented then what will be the status of strategic move for F16 deal....Will this deal be required then...

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun, thanks for your insights; I totally agree with your narrative and I am confident that amends will be made in all necessary spheres; from my perspective this is the last chance for Hindi belt to resurrect itself from the mess it is.


Anonymous said...

"WMD storage facility in Balochistan's Kirthar Mountains:"

what is ur assessment on this underground storage? do u think USA,Israel and Ind forces has capability to capture or destroy it because of location which is far away from Sea? can PA able to defend this base if it was alerted before attack?


rad said...

hi prasun
i dont understand the the logic of issuing rfi for ship bore ASCM when we have the best missiles like the club and the brahmos??

after the darin 3 upgrade i think india can do most of the avionics ie mission comp, displays ,gps nav, nav atack software, tacan , radio , data links , iff, are we making the autopilot or still importing it ?

the iaf is seems is happy with the present performance of the jag upgrade,did it fly with new honeywell engines? has the asraam been test fired?.

buddha said...
The Largest Submarine in The U.S. Navy.
Life in us submarine is quite different..With all facilities..And space

buddha said...
Super USS Submarines - New BBC Documentary - 2016

Devopriyo said...

Hi Prasun, Your thoughts on this tweet - is this dreamt up?

Saurav Jha‏ @SJha1618 4m4 minutes ago
Now that @DRDO_India's Phase-I BMD is being deployed to two locations in NW India, do read:

buddha said...
WHY AMERICA fears of CHINA | World War 3 (Full Documentary) 2016

buddha said...

i donot know the merit of question..but from now on after 50 or 100 years what will be the shape of Muslim world ...more western countries and others will fall prey to to the Islamic radicalization....

jasss gill said...

sir watched new documentaries on in submarines on different type of news channels I pray for god india plz india not go for war IN submarines are as good as punjab roadways I don't konw why new anchors louder india ke takat, takat my foot plz watch these shows and throw some light on IN submarines

dilbert said...

Interesting post from a place called "Harpreet's Blog" :

How PLA troops react under fire and stress. The above account re. a PLA unit deployed to Sudan for UN peacekeeping operations, which came under fire from armed militia-men. Salient points:

1. Chinese troops abandoned their posts rather than engage in fighting and protect civilians.

2. They not only failed to return fire, but in fact, RAN AWAY FROM THEIR POST. To add insult to injury, in their haste to save their skins, they even left behind their weapons and ammo – something a professional soldier would not even dream of doing. EVER.

3. It was the Indian Army that saved their sorry backsides. The men of 7 Kumaon (i.e. 7th batallion of the Kumaon Regiment), who were held in reserve, were asked to take charge and restore the situation, which they did with extreme professionalism and ruthlessness.

4. Here’s a typically modest way the news report chose to describe their (i.e. the Indian Army's) actions – ‘It was learnt that troops also secured the perimeter which was smashed by the IDPs and ensured the armed militiamen were weeded out.’ Yes, they ‘secured’ the perimeter and ensured the armed militiamen were ‘weeded out’. Typical Indian media’s way of underselling themselves. Or perhaps, something that they are so used to from the Indian Army, that they take it as a matter of fait accompli – Send in Indian troops, job will be done.

5. Btw, it was the same militiamen who had scared the hell out of the famed PLA troops and routed them that the Kumaonis calmly ‘weeded out’.

dushyant hardaha said...

some news reports said
I will deploy robots or unmanned ground vehicle in Kashmir
what's your pov on this new development

K.SURESH said...


While I agree with several of your comments related to defense I beg to differ on the issues related to migration of North Indian Hindi speakers into other parts of India.

It is NOT true that there is a huge demand for these cattle class people across Southern or Eastern India as well as Maharashtra. Most of these migrants from Bihar & UP barely get 100 days of work a year. If these people were indeed useful they would have converted their BIMARU states into developed ones.

The huge inflow of these people into non HIndi speaking states puts tremendous pressure on the resources of those states apart from the fact that they fail to integrate & commit henious crimes. From Bihar alone 15 lakhs migrate annually.

3 North Indian states viz J & K, Uttrakhand and Himachal do not allow people from other states to purchase land in their state. 3 North Eastern states viz Arunachal, Nagaland, Mizoram require outsiders to get an Inner Line Permit(ILP) before entering their state. Meghalaya & Manipur are witnessing large scale demand for ILP. Why do these Northern & NE States put these restrictions ? Because in the absence of these restricitions they will be flodded by Hindi speaking migrants.

From Bangalore to Mumbai, Kolkata to Chennai and every place in between, all that these Hindi speaking migrants bring with them is trouble.

If this uncontrolled migration continues, it is only a matter of time before India splits into 3 or 4 separate countries.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA: The F-16s are still reqd as they are available IMMEDIATELY. The Tejas Mk.2 will be available only from the following decade.

To GANESH: VMT. Meanwhile, the blame-game & denials have already started flowing in:

This clown of a Yogi-turned-politician, despite being elected as an MP several times from Gorakhpur, is now sating he wasn’t even aware of all the public health hazards around the hospital! What the FUCK was he doing all these years representing that city as an MP? As long as such clowns are elected to office, such disasters will continue to happen & those who suffer fully deserve such disasters for electing such decadent creatures as their leaders. I personally am of the view that the Indo-Gangetic plain in general has not yet arisen from the decadence of the last 200 years, most certainly in the intellectual arena, & this is what perpetuates the prevailing regressive mindsets. At least I can state with a degree of pride that states like Bengal are at last waking up & taking the right step:

No Politics on Campus:

This is exactly what the late Dr S Radhakrishnan used to advocate, but sadly all his well-intentioned advice fell on deaf ears in the post-independence era & the rot was initiated by the Congress & the Communists & consequently even the RSS, Jana Sangh & BJP followed to embrace the same evil.

To ANUJ: Why do you think it is so far away from the sea? Haven’t you heard about standoff PGMs like JASSM or JSOW being launched by carrier-based MRCAs? All those tunnel entrances & their surrounding ground-based air-defences & garrisons can easily be obliterated by air-launched PGMs.

To RAD: BTW, the IN had also issued RFIs for such ASCMs meant for coastal batteries! Since the existing ASCMs like Kh-35 Uran-E on-board Project 15 DDGs, Project 16A FFGs & Project 25A & Project 1241REM corvettes are nearing the end of their service lives, they have to be replaced & the ideal replacement will be the Kh-35UE that boasts longer-range. 3M-54E or BrahMos-1 cannot go on-board because of space constraints in such vessels. For DARIN-3, only the EL/M-2052 AESA-MMR is imported, & the rest are all locally-sourced. The OSMAC mission computer is jointly developed by HAL with a US-based company (refer to the Aero India 2013 thread).

To DEVOPRIYO: Of course it is figment of one’s imagination. That chap has always been spreading FAKE NEWS for reasons I cannot comprehend. This is surely not the right ay of whipping up DRDO’s morale; instead they will always have embarrassing consequences.

To JASSS GILL: I can’t understand how you have reached such conclusions & it will be better if you could go into the specifics point-by-point.

To DILBERT: Most of the time the forces deployed for UN peacekeeping from China are not from the PLA, but instead are from the People’s Armed Police (PAP), i.e. paramilitary forces.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJAY SHARMA: 1) They will always remain accusations if no supporting material evidence is presented. If such evidence exists, then the Courts of J & K are always available for seeking justice. HRW can only compile such lists based on second-hand reports but unless HRW produces supporting material evidence such lists will always be treated only as allegations. Has HRW produced any such material evidence so far? 2) Range of BrahMos-1 is more than 550km after India became a member of MTCR. Haven't you been reading the newspapers since last year? 3) Conventionally-armed BMs of the PLA have only cluster munitions designed to kill personnel & therefore they do minimal structural damage to any infrastructure facility. 4) About 50km. 5) So then the obvious thing to do is to track the DF-21D or DF-26 & intercept it in mid-air. 6) Of course not. The damage can be repaied in a few hours. 7) Not yet, because China has not deployed such missiles meant for the IOR or Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal. 8) Only those based in peacetime in Rajasthan, Punjab, J & K. Together, they can recapture PoK within 10 days while safeguarding the IB. 9) That is easily available from several on-line sources. 10 & 11) Again, those are easily available from several on-line sources. One Armoured Brigade comprises 2 MBT Regiments & 1 BMP-2 ICV Regiment. One Mechanised Regiment comprises 2 BMP-2 Regiments & 1 MBT Regiment.

sbm said...

Prasun, if I may interject in respect of Devopriyo's post based on Saurav Jha's tweet - DRDO itself, following Dr. Saraswat's departure has ended his tendency to make claims that are not only puzzling but untenable.

Following the PDV and modified AAD tests this time, DRDO's officials were speaking - not of deployment which they claim is some time away - but on refining technology, testing against new targets and a multiple target tests and above all developing and deploying proper land and space based detection systems.

I sense a change from the overhyped boasts of the past moving towards a more sober assessment of what has been achieved so far which as I see it is a proof of concept demonstration with capabilities demonstrated being good but which are but a stepping stone on a long path to developing a viable system.

Am I being fair?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Excellent book on the conduct of war in the western front in 1971:

It outlines in detail all the lessons learnt in terms of: 1) Time-urgent battlefield recce imagery. 2) Streamlining of battlefield logistics. 3) Army Aviation imperatives for close air-support & CASEVAC. 4) Conduct & control of land campaigns at the operational-level.

Anonymous said...


1) If the definitive ICBM and SLBM are the same, then it won'nt have length more than 13 m. Lt. Gen. (retd) V. K. Saxena said such a thing about the ``A-6" in a Lok Sabha TV program. If so, the definitive ICBM is very different from the current A-5.

2) Other than MIRV, wo'nt extendable exit cones, new motors with high energy propellants, etc need to be tested in flight ? In that case, wo'nt testing a single payload version well before the commencement of MIRV tests reduce technological risks ?

3) Is ground testing of motors with extendable exit cone done already ?


youngbengal said...

Sir, due to flood in north bengal road and rail connectivity to north east i.e New Jalpaiguri & Bagdogra is completely disrupted further there are landslide on several places on NH 31A(to Sikim). In this situation what is the alternate means of replenishment? Will it force Indian Army to pull back at Doklam? plz enlighten us on this.

rad said...

hi prasun
so relieved to hear that apart from the elm 2052 radar everything was done by us in the darin 3 upgrade

the latest club missile ie kh -35 ue seems to have a range of 250+km , the weight is 550 kg.according to comp website .
wouldnt it be a cheaper option to use it for precise land attack by su-30mki rather than the brahmos? Su-30mki can carry at least 8 of them! a flight of 4 ac can virtually decimate and airfield at stand of ranges with less risk to ac and pilots.Arriving simultaneously at an airfield will saturate the defenses though some of the missiles would be shot down . jammers like the ell-8251 could make life easy for us as well . they would be a good answer to raad and the like?

are the land attack versions as precise as the brahmos? do they have a SAR radar?.The pesa SAR mode radar of su-30 can always give target details to the club as well. I believe that the nirbhay is going aboard , but it is a big missile with long ranges. ?how much would be the cost of a missile ?

Pierre Zorin said...

Those of you who have never been on board a Nuclear sub here is a feel:

Manu Singh said...


1. There were talks between India and Russia regarding the transfer after completion of last three Project 1135.6 class frigates to India. while an Indian shipyard was supposed to build another few. So how is it that now Russian Navy is completing and planning to induct those three frigates for itself? Is the transfer and production going to happen or still undergoing talks?

2. You mentioned that the price of SSN is included in Kudankulam 5 & 6 prices. So what is the ballpark figure we are paying Russia and or what? Are they helping us in designing the SSN when we have already build a 6000 ton nuclear submarine? or are they giving Yasen class's reactor?

What is the status of talks on these issues ?

buddha said...
100 Million Chinese Lose Their Homes ( NHK documentary)
The Collapse Of China's Wealth And Power (Full Documentary)

AVIRAL said...

Unity within Communist party of China in tatters???

Also there was a news that Xi is loosing control on PLA & PLA generals are fuming over anti corruption drive by Xi.

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, What's your views about the issue highlighted by the South Asia Monitor ? What about the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS)in Dhaka ? Except that of Awami League most speakers are critic of India.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Absolutely my point as well. Between the PDV & AAD, the endo-atmospheric AAD’s developmental process is being accorded greater priority, while for the exo-atmospheric solution, the S-400 as proposed by Russia is being taken seriously, but the definitive S-400’s exo-atmospheric ‘hittile’ SAM too is under development & is unlikely to be fielded before 2020, as per the military-technical chatter I had oicked up during MAKS-2017.

To KRITAVARMA: 1 & 2) The development of ICBM & SLBM variants under the A-6 project us taking place concurrently & by an integrated team, unlike the earlier A-4/A-5 & K-15/B-05 teams working inside independent silos. Hence, flight-tests of single-payload versions of A-5 aren’t required. There are no technological risks from a military-technical standpoint since all the designs are of a proven nature. The only risks are in the military-industrial arena, i.e. attaining a degree of maturity in terms of sustainable & consistent industrial QA/QC levels. 3) They are on-going at Nashik.

To YOUNGBENGAK: Haven’t you come across the term ‘air maintenance’?

To RAD: Kh-35UE is an ASCM for anti-ship strike. It is not like the 3M-14E/Nirbhay or BrahMos-1 that come equipped with imaging SAR seekers for pinpoint precision strike. The Kh-35UE has a simple X-band pulse-Doppler radar for terminal active homing, meaning if you were to target a coastal oil storage facility in such a way that there are no other metallic objects in the missile’s flightpath, then the X-band radar will latch on to the only metallic structure bouncing off RF returns & the missile will home on to that metallic structure that reflects the radar’s transmissions. That’s how almost all RF-guided ASCMs function.

To MANU SINGH: If Russia decides to induct those 3 Project 1135.6 FFGs, then Reliance Defence won’t be able to complete their fitting-out at Pipavav, nor will it be able to build the 4th such FFG on its own at Pipavav. As for SSN’s budgeted figure, just take the cost of the KNPP 5 & 6 PWRs’ acquisition cost & divided it into 2 & iut will give you one-half of the cost for the 2 PWRs, while the other half is for the SSN project.

TO AVIRAL: That’s what I had been predicting all this while. Now those who love to paint the Mainland Chinese as being 10 feet-tall are in for the shock of their lives! Just as I had predicted, the steadily increasing annual internal security budgets of China (US$153 billion this year) that have overshot China's annual defence spending (US%151 billion this yeasr) are taking their toll & it is for this reason that the US had in 2010 initiated the ‘Pivot to the Pacific’ forces repositioning strategy to cater for this strategic inevitability. Thus, the Dragon at our Doorsteps now faces the definite prospect of its tentacles & claws being decapitated and its testicles being fully exposed! That is also the reason why China is further enhancing its ‘Great Cyber Firewall’. Watch how it is being done (only in the first half of this videoclip):

youngbengal said...

You meant to say that Pakyong airstrip is ready to undertake Globemaster/IL 76/Hercules operation?

sbm said...

Mr. Sengupta, would it not be true to say that the exo-atmospheric DRDO interceptor - the PDV - is still very much a proof-of-concept design with a long way to go?

In comparison, the AAD has been tested more rigorously and realistically and has undergone upgrades and is much closer to a deployable and workable system? Hence DRDO accorded such priority to it (perhaps 3 times as many launches & intercepts).

As such, the most realistic limited TMD system that India could field would be a combination of S-400s and AAD?

But for S-400 deliveries to start in 2020, wouldn't the contract need to be signed in 2017-2018?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To YOUNGBENGAL: Why should only fixed-wing aircraft be used for air-maintenance? Can't helicopters be used?

To SBM: Yes Dr. Badri-Maharaj ji, the PDV is still in the proof-of-concept stage & thus cannot as yet be called a technology demonstrator. The AAD is closer to becoming a mature solution since it is required to intercept BMs armed with conventional munitions & therefore high-speed intercepts at 16km or even 10km altitude is acceptable/satisfactory. Had it been reqd to intercept MIRVs or BMs carrying nuclear warheads, then an intercept altitude of 30km at the very least was reqd for an endo-atmospheric interceptor, since nuclear warheads typically explode at altitudes of between 15km & 10km. For S-400 exo-atmospheric interceptor SAM deliveries to commence by 2020, the contract ought to be inked 2 years earlier, i.e. by next year.

sbm said...

That said, the AAD, I am advised, is being refined to intercept between a 10km and 30km altitudes and supposedly has that inherent capability even now. The highest demonstrated intercept to date AFAIK has been at 16km. Am I right? BTW - I've forwarded your Tejas Mk.2 piece to some people on the project. It was the most sensible exposition of a way forward I've seen.