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Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Updates From SBC Vizag, Project Varsha NAOB & When & How PNS Zulfiquar Was To Be Hijacked

S-3/Arighat SSBN (above) was launched on on November 19, 2017.
Information on the above-shown vessel can be obtained here:
Civil engineering work on NAOB (above) began in 2011 and thus far the construction of underground SSBN parking pens have been completed, while work continues on the construction of SLBM storage-cum-loading/unloading facilities.

As narrated by Steve Coll in his book DIRECTORATE S
Zeeshan Rafiq joined the Pakistan Navy as a lieutenant in 2008. He first went to sea two years later, as part of Combined Task Force 150, a 25-nation sea patrol operation that deployed ships from Karachi into the Arabian Sea on counterterrorism and antipiracy missions. The coalition’s participants included Pakistan, the United States, and NATO navies. Rafiq chose his country’s navy after “listening to patriotic songs,” and he was motivated to serve. But after a few years, he came to think that the Pakistani military had become “the right hand of these infidel forces” and that his country’s generals and admirals “follow American diktats. One signal from America and the entire Pakistan Army prostrates before them,” he reflected. Rafiq once watched an American soldier board a Pakistan Navy ship. Everyone addressed him as “sir” and he was accorded the protocol of an officer even though he was just an enlisted man. In the war between the Muslim faithful and the infidels, Rafiq wondered, “Which side is Pakistan’s army on?” The generals who ran his country assisted in the “carpet bombing” of Afghanistan. They turned air bases over to the CIA for drone attacks against Muslims. Rafiq read Inspire, Anwar Al-Awlaki’s English-language Internet magazine. He studied the biographies of Faisal Shahzad, the would-be Times Square bomber, and Nidal Hasan, the Major who went on a shooting rampage at Fort Hood, Texas. He wanted to do something to remind “mujahids around the world” that it was important to “break the grip of infidels over our seas.”
Rafiq discovered that another serving Pakistan Navy Lieutenant based in Karachi, Owais Jakhrani, who was from Baluchistan, felt similarly. Jakhrani’s father was a senior Police officer. The son nonetheless came to believe that his country had become a slave state of America. Jakhrani’s radicalization manifested itself as complaints to navy officers that the service was insufficiently Islamic; an internal investigation of him led to his dismissal. Sometime during 2014, Jakhrani and Rafiq made contact with Al Qaeda in Waziristan. After Osama Bin Laden’s death, his longtime Egyptian deputy, Ayman Al Zawahiri, succeeded him. Zawahiri issued occasional pronouncements but kept a low profile, to avoid Bin Laden’s fate. Al Qaeda’s local network increasingly consisted of Pakistani militants who had drifted toward the organization and its brand name from other violent groups based in Punjab and Kashmir. One of the leaders of this less Arab, more subcontinent-focused Al Qaeda fought under the name Asim Umar. His real name, according to the investigations of Indian intelligence agencies, was Asim Sanaullah Haq, originally an Indian citizen in the state of Uttar Pradesh. He left there in the mid-1990s and ended up in Pakistan, where he joined Harkat-ul-Mujaheddin before moving toward Al Qaeda. During 2014, Rafiq and Jakhrani met him and explained that they could mobilize a sizable group of sympathizers and seize control of a Pakistan Navy warship, and then use it to attack the enemies of Islam.
The Pakistan Navy was not merely a conventional surface fleet; it was part of the country’s systems of nuclear deterrence. In 2012, Pakistan launched a Naval Strategic Forces Command, meaning a command focused on the deployment of nuclear weapons at sea. The country’s military leadership sought to develop a nuclear “triad,” akin to that deployed by the United States: that is, systems that would allow the firing of nuclear arms from aircraft, from land bases, or from the sea. The advantage of a triad is that it makes it difficult for an adversary that also has nuclear arms to launch a preemptive strike, because at least some of the targeted country’s dispersed nukes and delivery systems would likely survive and could be used in retaliation. While developing their triads, the United States, Russia, Britain, and France placed special emphasis on submarines armed with nuclear missiles because these stealthy undersea vessels would be particularly hard for an enemy to locate and destroy during a first strike. Pakistan had not yet acquired and deployed enough high-quality submarines to place the sea leg of its nuclear triad only with those vessels. Analysts assumed that Pakistan would also consider placing nuclear weapons aboard navy ships that carried cruise missiles with enough range to reach India, which of course was by far the most likely adversary to enter into a nuclear war with Pakistan.
PNS Zulfiquar, a China-built seven-storey guided-missile frigate, which typically had 250 to 300 sailors and officers on board, was one such warship. On December 19 and 21, 2012, the frigate reportedly test-fired China-made C-802A anti-ship cruise missiles, which have a range of about 180km. The C-802As can fly as low as 25 metres above the surface of the ocean, making them difficult to detect by radar. The missiles can also be fitted with a small nuclear warhead with a yield of two to four kilotons, or about 15 to 25 percent of the explosive force of the atomic bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in 1945. Around the time that it launched its Naval Strategic Forces Command, Pakistan also accelerated its development of small, or “tactical,” nuclear weapons like the ones that might fit on C-802A missiles. During the first decade after the invention of the atomic bomb, the United States, too, had built and deployed small nuclear bombs that could be dropped from planes or even fired from special artillery guns. The United States sent the small bombs to Europe and planned to use them on the battlefield against Soviet troops and tanks if a land war erupted across the Iron Curtain. It was only later in the Cold War that the idea of using atomic bombs on a battlefield as if they were just a more potent artillery shell became anathema in most nuclear strategy circles. Nuclear deterrence between the United States and the Soviet Union evolved into an all-or-nothing proposition under the rubric of Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. At the peak of MAD, each side had more than 20,000 nuclear bombs that were so powerful that any full-on nuclear exchange would have ended human civilization. The effects of nuclear war became so dramatic and unthinkable that it made such a war—or any conventional war that might go nuclear—less likely. That was the theory, at least.
India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in May 1998. As their version of mutual nuclear deterrence evolved, it displayed some parallels to the position of the United States in Europe during the 1950s. The United States feared a massive conventional blitzkrieg by Soviet forces and saw small nuclear weapons as a way to counter such an invasion. In South Asia, a similar factor was Pakistan’s fear of a conventional armoured invasion by India. Because India has a much larger military than Pakistan, as well as a larger economy and population, it might be expected to prevail in a long war. Pakistan acquired nuclear warheads to deter India from considering a conventional tank-and-infantry invasion, no matter how provoked India might feel from time to time by Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. For this defence to work, Pakistani Generals had to plant doubt in the minds of Indian leaders about whether the Generals were really rash enough to be the first to use nuclear weapons in anger since 1945. The development of small or tactical nuclear weapons aided Pakistan in this respect. Small atomic bombs might be dropped on a desert battlefield against Indian troops, away from population centers. Or they might be fired on cruise missiles against an isolated Indian military base. The use of even a small nuclear weapon on a battlefield would likely shock the world and provoke international intervention to end the war, perhaps before India could achieve its war aims. Overall, the existence and deployment of small nukes by Pakistan made it more likely that its Generals would actually use them, which in turn deepened doubts in the minds of Indian leaders about how costly a war with Pakistan might become. That is, in Pakistan’s twisted and dangerous logic, small nuclear weapons strengthened deterrence. Yet there were obvious downsides. One was that building and spreading out so many small, loose bombs exacerbated the threat that terrorists might try to steal them—or might come across them inadvertently.
Lieutenant Zeeshan Rafiq and former Lieutenant Owais Jakhrani knew all about the PNS Zulfiquar’s internal security systems. After they made contact with Al Qaeda in 2014, they developed elaborate plans, seemingly derived from Hollywood thrillers, to defeat that security in order to seize control of the warship and its weapons, including its 76mm gun and its C-802A missiles. One part of their plan was to exploit “a particular weakness of the security system,” as Rafiq put it, namely, that “the lockers and rooms of officers are not checked.” Rafiq and other officers successfully smuggled weapons aboard the PNS Zulfiquar “in batches, in their backpacks,” and stowed them in lockers. The next part of their plan was to make duplicate keys to the doors of the operations room (CIC) and the naval gunnery compartment “so that these rooms could be accessed without the knowledge” of the ship’s commanding officers. Here, too, the insider knowledge of the two Lieutenants offered an advantage. They planned to sneak into the magazine room of the 76mm gun to load its shells before they moved to seize control of the warship. They also understood that it was possible to prime and operate both the gun and the C-802As outside of the main operations room, in an alternate area below, on the second deck. The C-802As could be operated manually from the second deck when the missiles’ automated system was off—with their duplicate keys, they could accomplish this.
The conspirators also scoped out the armed security guards they expected to find on the PNS Zulfiquar. These were elite commandos from the Naval Special Service Group. There were typically five Pakistani commandos aboard when the frigate sailed to join NATO for operations of Combined Task Force 150. The commandos were deployed in part to protect the warship in case Somali or other pirates attacked. Rafiq, Jakhrani, and their co-conspirators devised a plan to kill them or hold them at bay. First, they would bring two dozen or so co-conspirators aboard—some after the warship was at sea. They would try to avoid any confrontation with the crew as the PNS Zulfiquar sailed toward American and other vessels operating in the coalition. Their target was the USS Supply, a lightly defended American supply and refuelling vessel. According to Rafiq, the American logistics ship’s defence was assigned to a US Navy frigate that always shadowed it, no more than a few miles away. When the PNS Zulfiquar got close, they would use their duplicate keys to arm and fire its big artillery gun and its cruise missiles, to “secretly attack the US warship,” as one of the conspirators put it, before the Pakistani crew aboard realized what was happening. They would use the 76mm gun to “destroy” USS Supply and then turn the C-802As on whatever American warship came to its defence. After they launched their attack on the US Navy, they expected the crew of the PNS Zulfiquar to try to stop them, but “since it doesn’t take much time to fire missiles” they would already have done a lot of damage. At that point, they planned to defend the frigate’s armoury so the Pakistani crew could not arm themselves. They also would lock all the doors and hatches between the second and third decks, to barricade themselves below. They would take the frigate’s commanding officer as a hostage and force him to order the crew to abandon ship, by donning life jackets and jumping into the sea. Once in full control of the PNS Zulfiquar, the conspirators planned to use all of the frigate’s weapons—the 76mm gun, “torpedoes, anti-aircraft gun, and C-802As” to attack “any US Navy ship.” They would continue to fight until “the PNS Zulfiquar was destroyed” or until the mutineers themselves were “killed in action.” They hoped to use the ship’s communication systems to reach “the media and tell the world about this entire operation.”
Early in September 2014, Al Qaeda publicly announced a new branch, Al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent, under the leadership of Asim Umar, the Indian from Uttar Pradesh. Al Qaeda’s leaders explained that they had worked for some time to recruit and unite militants from disparate Pakistani groups. The announcement seemed designed to provide Al Qaeda with new visibility and relevance at a time when the Islamic State had risen to prominence in Syria and Iraq and had started to recruit local allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan. An Al Qaeda member, Hasan Yusuf, explained that the group’s main motivation in forming the new branch came “in the wake of the American defeat and withdrawal from Afghanistan. . . . This jihad will not end; America’s defeat is only the prelude.” A withdrawal that was seen in Washington as an intelligent winding down of an unsustainable war was inevitably understood by jihadists worldwide as a historic victory and a source of new momentum. On September 6, 2014, in Karachi, at dawn, Rafiq and Jakhrani boarded the PNS Zulfiquar in navy uniforms, with their service cards displayed. A number of co-conspirators, in marine uniforms, approached through the harbour in a dinghy. An alert Pakistan Navy gunner noticed that the “Marines” were carrying AK-47s, which are not normally issued in the Navy. He fired a warning shot. A full-on gun battle erupted. SSG commandos on-board joined the fray to defend the warship. When it was over, by one count, eleven attackers died, including Rafiq and Jakhrani. They never had a chance to access the weapons they had smuggled  on board or to use the duplicate keys they had made to the C-802A missile room.
The Pakistani defence of the PNS Zulfiquar was professional and successful. Yet there was a disturbing postscript to Al Qaeda’s strike. About six weeks after the attack, India’s principal external intelligence service, the Research and Analysis Wing (R & AW), citing agent reporting from Karachi, informed India’s national security adviser Ajit Doval that a nuclear warhead had been on board the PNS Zulfiquar at the time of the attack. If their plan had succeeded, Rafiq and Jakhrani would have had more on their hands than they expected, by this account. It is possible that India put a false story out to stir up global alarm about terrorism and nuclear security in Pakistan. Yet if the Indian report is accurate, September 6, 2014, would mark the first known armed terrorist attack in history against a facility holding nuclear weapons. Judging by Pakistan’s trajectory, it is unlikely to be the last.


Srinivasa Nanduri Ramanujam said...

Great Read Prasun sir! As usual. What I didn't know was Pakistan weaponized c802 with nuclear warhead that's sick and quiet innovative.

And the fact that they averted major attack should have made them more careful. Hopefully. Else it's a risk for everyone.

On seperate topic, I read two articles written by Manoj Joshi, one a long article trying to explain that core problem in settling Sino indian border is political and that framework basics are ready since 2005 and china is in superior position to india overall.

Second trying to explain china Nepal railway link is good move.

The way I see it we are at a strategic disadvantage and China is exploring and exploiting this. China in South Asia is a reality and will do everything to balance india including re hyphenating India with Pakistan and hurting our cause where ever possible, like not direct confrontion but cold calculated many small strikes to bend India to it's will.

It's becoming a game of cat and mouse and they keep playing us the way they want. Perception wise the have advantage.

Srinivasa Nanduri

Anonymous said...

“Research and Analysis Wing (R & AW), citing agent reporting from Karachi, informed India’s national security adviser Ajit Doval that a nuclear warhead had been on board the PNS Zulfiquar at the time of the attack“

1) Sir earlier you told us that nuclear warhead is always n will be controlled by PA and not any other armed forces at all?
2) are you saying no country except India knows about nuclear warhead not even p5 nations?
3) how Pakistan nuclear warhead is operated don’t it need triggering keys or any authorisation?
4) regarding PoK what is our political netas stance? Do they want India to take aggressive posture?


Kaustav said...

You are Right again..Wow!!!!
Again as you stated earlier...330crores for the Su-30MKI from Russia, 415 crores for same if Made in India by HAL and 463 crores quoted for the LCA Mk1A made by HAL...
Is it because of the high import content and small order of 83 LCA Mk1A or is it time to privatise for cost reduction?

aditya kamble said...

Dear Prasun
Dont you think there is a serious neglect in the MOD regarding promoting the DRDO developed products. Forget about DRDO developed products, not a single DPSU showcased its products at Eurosatory 2018. Why we dont have a defence export promotion agency like SIBAT of Israel? We may not have developed world beating defence products but whatever are developed are worth selling. What are your thoughts and any suggestions on how we can deal such a situation.

buddha said...

Nice article sir ..And matter of deep concern

Your cmnt on these two matter sir

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji

Indian Express reported that Tejas Mk1A is more expensive than Su-30mki manufactured by HAL. I would request you to please provide some clarity on this.

Thanks & Regards

RAT said...

A good enough reason why Pakistan should seize to exist as a nation. Again thanks Peasun for posting this

Anup said...

They released surgical strike videos.

Vikram Guha said...


(1) For the benefit of people like us who are not experts will you please shed some light on the policy of Suo Moto Proposals under Make II Procedure. Is it worthwile for small companies to make suo moto proposals ?

(2) With an aim to liberalize the Licensing process for Defence Industries, MoD is inviting suggestions in 15 days from the industry and stakeholders on the pruned and rationalized defence products list. The link is at

Just wanted to bring this to your notice PrasunDa, since bureaucrats, netas visit your blog



Rajesh said...

This gross event tells that POK inclusive of G&B must be invaded and at the same time Pakistan must be de-nuked.

Satya said...

Prasun da, as Pakistan heads towards defaults there's lot of concern in Pakistani media that Pakistan could be forced to surrender its nuclear weapons. Is there any real possibility of this? How far would US go to squeeze Pakistan?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAM: VMT but (LoLz) the narrative wasn’t my brainchild, but that of Steve Coll. And that’s why common-sense is reqd to be applied here, i.e. why should a PN FFG about for leave for an anti-piracy patrol in the Horn of Africa be carrying any kind of nuclear WMD? Secondly, the narrative does not even remotely suggest that the would-be hijackers wanted to use the C-802As as nuclear warhead-armed weapons. From this, we can therefore conclude that the PN does not possess any nuclear warhead-armed missiles of any type, & that the source-report attributed to R & AW was either a total fabrication, or was a mischievous plant as a fake news. WRT China, the 2 articles contain some major factual errors, about which I will dwell upon them very soon.

To RON: WRT 1, 2 & 3) I never said any such thing. It is Steve Coll who has claimed this to be the case. And common-sense tells us that this story about a nuclear WMD-armed C-802A is fake news, period. 4) Why else do you reckon the videoclips of the cross-LoC raids of September 28, 2016 have nopw been released?

To KAUSTAV, BUDDHA & HARDIK THANKI: That news-report is typical of a shallow kind of reporting without explaining the context—primarily due to lack of research & lack of domain expertise. Firstly, what needs to be explained is that the per production costs of Tejas Mk.1A are Rs.100 crore more than that of Tejas Mk.1 because for the latter an expanded final-assembly-cum-integration facility will be reqd to cater to the promised annual production rate of 16 aircraft. For Tejas Mk.1 the existing HAL facility can churn out only 8 Tejas Mk.1 per annum. Secondly, there’s the cost of additional systems integration & additional airworthiness flight certification in-country, plus cost of IAF-mandated customisation of imported avionics, which will have to be done abroad on airborne testbeds, since no one in India has such airborne testbeds. Third, the quotes from HAL also include the supply of various types of ground-support equipment & test-benches, since HAL’s quotation is inclusive of the provision of performance-based logistics package for Tejas Mk.1A. Consequently, HAL’s price quotation cannot be benchmarked with quotes for 126 MMRCAs because the RFP for 126 MMRCAs never asked for quotes for ground-support equyipment & for perfoprmance-based logistics support. The same was the case with the Su-30MKI contract. Hence, one must be EXTREMELY CAREFUL & must also strongly desist from comparing apples with oranges.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ADITYA KAMBLE: Every DRDO-developed & DPSU-produced product is either 20 years behind the latest that’s availabl;e from OEMs worldwide, or is a licenced-built clone of an imported product, which in turn prevents them from being exported. There is no single military product originating from India that can claim to be a World’s First.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) The suo moto proposal i8s meant primarily for an upgraded & localised variant of an existing imported product that is in nheed of quality assurance certification byu the MoD’s DGQA. This proposal does not brand-new innovations or new product designs, simply because such offers will be reqd to have a demand from the projected end-users & there’s no way any OEM can gauge such demands unless & until the end-user fiorst states a reqmt & supplies the related MIL-SPEC standards that are reqd for product compliance.

Meanwhile, do go through this five-part documentary called CHAIN OF COMMAND that explains in great detail the complexities of urban warfare & how network-centrtic warfare techniques are offering cutting-edge ISTR solutions:

To SATYA: That is already a foregone conclusion, since I had explained a long time ago that the world cannot bear the burden of an overt nuclear weapons state that is wholly dependent on financial dole-outs for its daily survival. And here’s another reason why Pakistan’s economy is becoming unsustainable:

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANUP & RAJESH: Here are the videoclips of the cross-LOC raids of September 29, 2016:

B/W thermal imagery is from MALE-UAVs, while colour imagery is from helmet-mounted cameras.

I can now reveal the following:

Target-1 Dudhnial, Neelum Valley 34 42 09.97 N, 74 06 28.75 E

Target-2 Mundakal, Leepa Bulge 34 17 21.1 N, 73 55 25.7 E

Target-3 Athmuqam, Keran Sector 34 34 48.65 N, 73 57 01.09 E

Targets 4, 5 & 6 were diversionary in nature.

For targets 1, 2 & 3, Instalaza C-90 LAW & 40mm UBGLs were employed by 4 & 9 SF (Para). For targets 4, 5 & 6, AGS-30 AGLs, 7.62mm MMGs, 12.7mm HMGs and 81mm/120mm mortars were employed.

In Leepa Valley, the IA’s SF (Para) crossed the LoC and positioned themselves on ridges directly overlooking the village of Mundakali. Two Pak Army OPs and a makeshift mosque located at some distance east of the village were destroyed at 5am. Two other posts higher up in the mountains were also hit. At least four Pak soldiers were injured in the attack, which lasted from 5am until 8am. A similar advance by the SF (Para) in the Dudhnial area of Neelum Valley further north was conducted. LeT camps in the Khairati Bagh village of Leepa Valley and the western end of Dudhnial village in Neelum valley had been hit

Two PA soldiers were killed in diversionary attacks—one in Poonch, and one in Bhimber sector, further south. A total of nine PA soldiers were injured in these assaults. Another diversionary attack occured in the Madarpur-Titrinot region of Poonch sector, where a Pak Army OP was destroyed and one soldier killed between 4.30am & 6am.

Terror camps in the Samahni-Mandhole area of Bhimber or in Tattapani of Poonch-Kotli area could not be attacked since they were located behind ridges that serve as a natural barrier against direct-fire. In Leepa, six wooden structures housing terrorists between the villages of Channian and Mundakali were not targetted, since a ridge that runs along the east bank of the nearby stream covered them from the IA positions on the LoC. Likewise, in Neelum, most terrorist camps-such as the ones at Jhambar, Dosut and in the Gurez Valley area further east—are located in the valleys below at a safe distance from the LoC.

Why release the viodeoclips now? Obviously the intent is to psychologically further demoralise the armed forces of Pakistran at a time when they are already with their backs to the wall along both the Durand Line to the west & across the WB & LoC to the east. The PA will be totally stretched till July 26, Pakistan’s financial situation is already in the meltdown stage & consequently, that cou8ntry’s armed forces have just enough war reserves to last only 4 days of all-out conventional warfighti8ng, or 9 days of limited high-intensity warfighting along the WB & LoC. Now is therefore the opportune moment to cause psychological shock-and-paralysis within the enemty’s mind, which should culminate in a 12-hour military operation involving the IA’s re-capture of Haji Pir Pass by late July 2018. After all, India’s all-parliamentary resolution of February 24, 1994 does state that the entire PoK is an integral part of India (which was endorsed by the UNSC in 1948 after it accepted the legal sanctity of the Instrument of Accession during the Karachi ceasefire negotiations) & therefore re-establishing Indian sovereignty over any portion of PoK & liberating its local populace from foreign tyranny does not tantamount to any form of international aggression.


Can you compare the the lenght of INS Arihant and INS Arighat? Also any prospects of India buying INS Chakra after the lease gets over, and is a 2nd Akula also under pipeline now?

ashish gautam said...

The explanation of Steve coll is good... But also dubious. & Yeah u r ryt logically why a Africa bounded ship will carry a nuke warhead.
For point u said of them having no nuke capable missile I think they don't have any nuke capable ship/sub launchable missile... Land based may b there....
About the surgical strike video & it's further explanation...
The thing of July operation which u have told... Is it Gonna happen practically or is it just your suggestion??
Am asking coz decision paralyzm is quite common in Indian political & beaureucratic establishment...

jasss gill said...

Sir, how many terrorist killed? Some news 35 to 70

Ajay said...

Dear Sir

Now pakistan is Officially in the GREY LIST of FATF

Also their Forex reserves are getting finished and

MOODYS has downgraded pakistan's Sovereign rating

This is the Best time to Go after pakistan from our Side

Why cannot we Ask USA to Put Trade and Economic Sanctions
Like They have done for Iran

Pakistan will collapse in a Month if Iran Like Sanctions are imposed

How far do you think China will go to save pakistan

Anonymous said...

Very Nice Article Prasun ji.
"therefore re-establishing Indian sovereignty over any portion of PoK & liberating its local populace from foreign tyranny does not tantamount to any form of international aggression."

Very true Prasun Sir.
You might have already seen this but posting again for benefit of others---

1)"As time passed, a neocolonial governance structure came to be imposed in GB. The Pakistani administration entered into an agreement with the Kashmiri leadership for direct administrative control and handed the area over to the then province of NWFP. When NWFP decided to administer the region applying the black law of FCR applicable to tribal areas, it meant that the Dogras’ autocracy had simply been succeeded by state-sanctioned authoritarianism."

2)"Last year, internet services were shut down for up to a year in many districts in the frontier regions of (now former) Fata, KP and Balochistan on the basis of ‘national security’.

In Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, the military-run Special Communications Organi­sation continues to maintain a monopoly over the provision of telecom and internet services."


Harsh said...

Sir, what's the area (in sq kms) of the haji pir area which is intended to be captured?

Nanana said...

What about a supposed"snatch"?

aditya kamble said...

Dear Prasun
Which will be the x band APAR to be fitted on the 2 MRIS.

Rajesh Mishra said...

The paradoxical and diabolical nuke which should not have been there, might have been there for further transshipment to its target at USA.

Unknown said...

July operation of haji pir is a suggestion. That's the way it's worded

Anup said...

Thanks for reply. Two more questions
1) meaning of Green Helicopter?
2)As per your comment after July 2018 there are limited war between Ind & Pak ?

Harsh said...

Sir, Is it true that during the time period of cross LOC strikes in sept 2016 we had teams ready to push through LOC supported by aviation assets in case the SF troops get entangled in POK?
If yes, can you elaborate the magnitude of force that was ready for the rescue.

Manoj G said...

Hi Prasun,

Two questions about India's homeland security.

1. Today here in Mumbai, a chartered plane crashed into a high rise killing 5 people. Juhu is near my ancestral village but now it's part of Mumbai not far from the airport. The aircraft deviated from course & crashed. Isn't it possible that terrorist might do something similar in Mumbai. Hijack a chartered plane & crash it at a high value target ?

2. Regarding this security of border it seems in Assam only Hindus i.e Hindu Bangali/Syletis are being forced to leave even those who are living there for 7-8 decades, but no action will be taken against possible Muslims. How does targetting only Hindus help Govt of India maintain law & order ?

Thanks, Manoj

buddha said...
Us bullying giing on..
Why haven't they denuclearized pak to assure iran..And
If india goes for July operation..
Trump may too impose restriction on indian

Srinivasa Nanduri Ramanujam said...

Hi Prasun,

Thanks for the reply.

And we also have first picture of Arighat ssbn, great. I guess it is of same tonnage as Arihant and is currently carrying k15 missiles. Most intresting. Hopefully K4 with MIRV becomes operational in few years giving India a credible second strike cabability.

Regarding Nikki Haley's comments that PM Modi knows why the meeting was cancelled, is it because of Iran? Or something more ominous?

Srinivasa Nanduri

Satya said...

Thanks for reply Prasun da. Nikki Haley in an interview said, "Good reason for postponing 2+2, PM Modi knows its well, rest of the world would know soon" Is it linked with a possible cross LoC high intensity war?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANKIT KUMAR: Both SSBNs (S-2/Arihant & S-3/Arighat) are identical in dimensions & performance. As will be the S-4 SSBN. The larger SSBNs will be the S-4, S-6 & S-7. No one in this world will sell nuclear-powered submarines to anyone else. The 2nd Project 971 SSGN for leasing is not happening anytime soon.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: The July operation you’ve referred to is the product of my ASSESSMENT, & not a prediction or suggestion or prophecy.

To JASSS GILL: About 28.

To AJAY: China is getting badly bruised by the day due to its flawed BRI concept. In the end, China will have to take harsh steps to cut its losses. And this could well include downsizing its investments in Pakistan, since China has already invested a lot more in Iran & would ideally like to reach Iran by land through Afghanistan. Do read this:

To HARSH: Do read & study these WRT Haji Pir Pass, or Point 13620:*TGHmnb7BfascO-Go-alLyg.jpeg

It is not just about a Pass, but about capturing an entire bulge to ensure lateral connectivity between Uri & Poonch.

Contingency plans for CSAR were implemented in late September 2016 by deploying five Mi-35P attack helicopters for providing suppressive firepower in case the SF (Para) units got pinned down by enemy fire. There was never any need for inserting any additional ground forces.

To NANANA: Snatch what or whom?

To ADITYA KAMBLE: It will be the same that’s now being used by the IN’s Korea Tacoma-built NOPVs, i.e. the Larsen & Toubro-built precision X-band tracking radars.

To ANUP: 1) Green helicopter refers to the airframe minus its mission avionics & weapons fitments. 2) Yes, LIMITED War.

To MANOJ G: 1) That is very much possibl;e, not just in Mumbai but also in all other cities worldwide as well. 2) Yes, that’s what is happening there now, & the very same had happened in Meghalaya as well.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIR, BUDDHA & SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAM: It will do us all some good to analyse the various centrifugal forces at play now, & then draw up assessments.

Centrifugal Force-1: The US wants to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula & ink a permanent peace treaty with DPRK—this is what the bUS perceives to be a major foreign policy achievement. The DPRK & Japan will ink a similar treaty in future. This then leads to the THAAD being withdrawn from both Japan & South Korea, about which China is extremely worried. China will then have to contend with the US-Japan Military Alliance then existing for the protection of Taiwan & for intervension in the South China Sea. But at the same time, China will then have far less to spend WRT Korean peninsula & North Korea & will thus be able to devote greater financial & military resources for the South China Sea theatre.

Centrifugal Force-2: Military forces under the US Indo-Pacific Command will be re-distributed from South Korea to Australia & Diego Garcia, thereby increasing the US military footprint in the IOR.

Centrifugal Force-3: The US has ensured that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) & the UAE both make mega-investments in India’s petrochemicals/hydrocarbons sector, the kind of which can never be matched by either Russia or Iran. Also, Qatar, Iraq & Kuwait will ensure & assure affordable energy security for India. In return, India will be reqd to forego its oil imports from Iran, while the Chabahar FTIZ will remain untouched by US0imposed sanctions because both the US & Iran require this trade route for sustaining Afghanistan’s economy. Thus, the US & its Arabian allies want Iran to capitulate. If Iran then becomes economically isolated & impoverished, then this will cause heavy damage to China’s enormous investments in Iran that were made over the past 20 years.

Centrifugal Force-4: For India, if supreme national interests are to come first, then she ought to master the art of playing Poker & demand something in return, i.e. if the US & the Sunni Arab-majority countries want India to play in role in Iran’s downfall, then these countries must also extend the same type of favour to India, i.e. not make any noise if India decides to militarily liberate PoK (inclusive of Gilgit-Baltistan) & re-integrate it with J & K State. After all, next year being election year in India, the present-day NDA-2 ruling coalition would not want to be seen to be taking only dictations from the US & its allies. Consequently, a practical give-n-take approach is reqd. India can also insist that if she is reqd to forego her investments in Chahbahar FTIZ, then she will have no other choice but to ensure geographical contiguity with Afghanistan & the Central Asian Republics through the re-integration of PoK into J & K by any & all means possible ASAP.

So now it remains to be seen what kind of faustian bargain India’s decision-makers can make & how they can achieve the country’s supreme national interests. And BTW, the US Defense Dept has just set the ball in motion to officially offer the THAAD to the IAF.

DAshu said...

Derivation of this "Centrifugal Force-4" must be of very very less radius.

DAshu said...

and with high velocity

Nanana said...

Snatch of some HVT during the Surgical strikes

Kaustav said...

The US can lump it. We can always fund ways to trade with Iran and rupee trade or even with the roubles from the Indo Russian trade deals. We are American Allies and have good relationship with the Sunni Arab Kingdoms. But profit for the Oil Companies and national
interest should reign supreme. India should look out only for itself as the entire world does. Iran presents many opportunities and challenges for India and one day India might actually help to bridge the gap between USA and Iran. On Pakistan, Iran shall have to be handled with the same care as the GCC, Shia Sunni differences between Pak & Iran notwithstanding. Please elaborate on Indian strategy and policy in this regard.

The Arihant and Arighat, both SSBNs need escorts, Where is the SSN/SSGN for both? We only have the Chakra with the 10 year lease running out!

Anonymous said...

@that is one good news before the weekend. THAAD coming home :-)
what about the S400?
If Centrifugal Force-4 happens, what be would Iran reaction?

Not sure I agree with article. The Chinese are playing the long game and resources are finite. The CHinese are now also building a naval capability to be able to secure their already paid for resources too. In 20years time their few billion investment will look very cheap and we will have to pay market prices.

Compare that with USA investment in Iraq, over 1 trillion and even now has to beg for Iraq for its forces to stay.


Prranshu Yadav said...

While US would obviously want to denuclearise DPRK, I really don't think that's ever gonna happen. Why would DPRK just give up all it's nukes after spending so much time and effort developing them? Especially after realising that NATO probably wouldn't have overthrown Gaddafi if he had not given up Lybian nuclear program and Russia wouldn't have dared to annex Crimea if Ukraine had not handed over its nukes to Russia after Soviet collapse? As far as I can see DPRK is actually upgrading its nuclear facilities.

As for sanctions on Iran, correct me if I am wrong, but unlike the situation before inking of nuclear deal when much of the west had imposed sanctions against Iran under UN ambit (which made them genuinely crippling) this time the sanctions have been imposed by US alone. Iran is still free to do buisness with the rest of the west.

Srinivasa Nanduri Ramanujam said...

But Prasun sir,

If THAAD and US forces are removed from Korea, china will have a free run in South china sealed and take back Taiwan by hook or crook, what will be the implications of this. ASEAN region will be under the thumb of China. How can US accept this.

And is US Russia rapprochement also because of this squeeze Iran and check on China policy? Will it work. I mean china is countering every move of US, though not successfully.

China is proposing 2+1 talks for South Asia, where it wants to pair up with India to deal with this regions countries.whats behind that?

And THAAD replacing S400 would hurt Russia India relationship don't you think, though, it might be good proposition for us. Some days ago, a us Congress representative suggested that us will help india develop it's BMDS if we don't buy S400.

Srinivasa Nanduri

Kaustav said...


A query about the link below. Is it possible to explore the transaction and tie-up model followed by BAE and ASC where the Australian company will be a subsidiary of BAE for the duration of the ASW construction and commission? Your opinion on the feasibility in India, ofcourse with an Indian entity as the subsidiary.

aritro data said...

any update on XR SAM? how many canisters will a system hold?true capabilities?

earlier u mentioned about need for 4000 NIRBHAYs. is such scale production possible in current situation?

rishab said...

sir, have the vishakhapatnam class destroyers being elayed by 3-4 years ?
they were to start sea trials by 2018-19.
there was some news some time ago that due to lack of some ukranian equipment the ship has been delayed.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

NANANA: You must be the only one in this world to ASSUME that HVTs hang around in the frontlines or launch-pads, when the rest of us know very well that HVTs always lurk within urbanized, settled areas deep inside the hinterland.

To KAUSTAV: LoLz! Well…, matters are nopt as easy as that. It’s far more easier said than done. And the last time between 2011 & 2015 that India was faced with such a situation, it had led to a paralytic balance-of-payments crisis withion India. So I will not be as brash & dismissive as you. The sanctions were levied by two parties: the UN & also unilaterally on the international banking system by the US. The US-led campaign of coercive economic diplomacy was the most consequential development between 2011 & 2015. Since 1979, Washington has always relied on sanctions to address the Iranian challenge, but international reluctance to cooperate diluted their impact. All that changed over the past 17 years; using counter-terrorism authorities created after the 9/11 attacks, the US Treasury Dept devised a juggernaut of financial measures that gradually severed Teheran’s access to the international banking system. What Jay Solomon does well is chronicle exactly how this worked—how Washington’s efforts to squeeze Teheran’s bottom line, including lawsuits, advocacy with international financial institutions and “a global game of whack-a-mole,” eventually wore Iran down. And for those who are unaware of how the international financial/banking system functions, this will be a useful primer:

The thrifty Mullahs of Iran today present ZERO opportunities for India. Instead, it is Iraq & later Syria that offer far more lucrative opportuinities for India:

Same in Afghanistan,. Where there are close to 10,000 skilled Indian workers working at various vehicle servicing depots of the ISAF contingents deployed throughout Afghanistan. It must also be noted that though Iran claims to be the leader of the Shiites worldwide, that honour actually ought to go to Iraq because while Iran hosts only an Ayatollah, it is Iraq that hosts the ‘Grand Ayatollah’. And all the hoply sites associated with the Shia Sect are located in Iraq, i.e. Najaf & Karbala. As for the Iran-Pakistan equation, they are more than welcome to bleed each other to death. It is now up to Iran to decide whether or not it wants to play truant with India WRT Chabahar FTIZ. If it does, then only Iran will be the nett loser as denial of transit trade routes to Afghanistan will only result in greater instability along the Iran-Afghanistan border. So it is all really up to Iran’s Mullahs to decide whether or not be ‘born again’ in a reformed manner.

As for the ASC-BAE tie-up, such a model has been existing in India since the 1970s, albeit between the IN’s Naval Design Bureau, the WESEE & the DPSU shipyards. And yes, SSNs are the top-most priority along with the LPHs. So if INS Chakra has to return to Russia after completin g 13 years of service with the IN, then another SSGN will have to be leased to take its place.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAM: LoLz! What if the US authorises the export of THAAD to Taiwan & Singapore? US-Russia rapproachment appears unkilely until Russia surrenders its claims over Crimea. And if Russia clings on to Crimea, then that sets a precedent for Russia to follow suit WRT those portions of real-estate within the Baltic Republics of Lithuania, Estonia & Latvia where ethnic Russians constitute the majority population. India will rather team up with ASEAN & Australasia rather than join forces with China on the issue of deciding the Asia-Pacific’s geopolitical destiny. To me, purely on a technical level, the S-400 offer was DYSFUNCTIONAL since the so-called Russian BMD system never had any credible space-based early warning component.

To ARITRO DATA: 8 VLS cells, same as that of the Barak-8 LR-SAM. Of course series-production of 4,000 Nirbhays is possible. What are the impediments, if any, accoprding to you?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAT: What about the S-400? Every credible BMD system requires a credible space-based early-warning system. Where’s the Russian space-based component? At least the US & Israeli BMD systems are accompanied by space-based early-warning sensors. That’s why I always had more than a good laugh whenever nitwits & fanboys always went ga-ga over the S-400 offer. WRT Iraq ir is the Iraqis who are now begging the US to stay put inside Iraq & the Iraqis now prefer the M-1 Abram,s & F-16 & nopt the T-72Ms or MiGs. Do watch the series CHAIN OF COMMAND where it is all chronicled. And 20 years from now, you will get an exacty headcount of how many countries would have been bankrupted by China. Today even a simple sanctions regime of the US can overnight turn a Chinese telecommunications gaitn like ZTE into a bankrupt corporate entity. That’s how fragile the Chinese industrial set-up is. So let’s not paint them as being 9-feet tall.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: You are of course ASSUMING that DPRK has successfully demonstrated its ability to master all aspects of being a declared nuclear weapons state, when it has only thus far demonstrated its ability to produce a few liquid-fuelled ballistic missiles. That hardly qualifies as a credible minimum deterrent. Libya’s nuc;ear programme was sabotaged from the very outset, since the Dr A Q ‘Bhopali’ Khan network was penetrated to the hilt by the US & its allies & hence almost all industrial components were dysfunctional from ther outset. And all this was revealed ONLY AFTER Gaddafi publicly owned up its covert WMD programmes. So it was the US that played the long-con game with Libya & outfoxed Gaddafi.

As for Iran, the sanctions were concurrently levied by 2 parties: the UN & also unilaterally on the international banking system by the US. Over the past 17 years, the US Treasury Dept devised a juggernaut of financial measures that gradually severed Teheran’s access to the international banking system. What Jay Solomon does well is chronicle exactly how this worked—how Washington’s efforts to squeeze Teheran’s bottom line, including lawsuits, advocacy with international financial institutions and “a global game of whack-a-mole,” eventually wore Iran down. And for those who are unaware of how the international financial/banking system functions, this will be a useful primer (that I had frequently referred to):

Bottomline: If the US unilaterally cracks down on the international banking system, then it’s game, set & match for the US. Everyone knows this & that’s why the Govt of India has already issued the commands to various state-owned refineries to cut down on crude oil imports from Iran. Nor does Iran exists as a lucrative market for imports from India of consumer goods or commodities. Instead,Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, Oman, Hordan & Saudi Arabia are far karger consumers of such goods & commodities. Post-war reconstruction efforts in Iraq alone will create tens of lakhs of job opportunities for several job-seekers from Bihar, Haryana, Punjab & UP. So, kindly take all these factors into consideration & then make a nett assessment on which is the most favourable option for India.

Satya said...

Prasun sir, if India decides to take POK militarily will it be possible for IA to capture it within 8-10 days? The so called AJK is a narrow strip of land but GB is a vast territory. After 2016 surgical strikes Gen Hooda had said that he was worried of retliation which means that PA is capable of responding in kind.

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,

Do you think India has the building blocks or at least has the means to get it from Israel or any other country to build the space based assets for early warning systems to be in place.

If India can follow the same approach as with SU 30, it could be a big asset.
Thanks, Ganesh

Pierre Zorin said... Israel's anti terror squad

just_curious said...

Prasun, @ the risk of sounding cliche & risking staleness of the subject .. this article again raised queries on the rafale deal ..can u pls confirm if the cancelling of MMCRA rafale deal wsa a wise one or was it an ego trip by the modi govt screwing the country in the process... U can share the link if that is already answered earlier ....also will MMRCA 2 ever reach a logical conlusion??

ashish gautam said...

sir some out of this thread question-
as u told that Arjun MK2 after weight reduction & further up-gradation exercise will weigh around 62 tonnes with a 1500HP power pack. so PTW ratio will b around 24hp/ton.
1) Is it enough keeping in mind Indian Geographical diversity?
2) what are the areas in which its gonna be deployed?
3) Any change in 120MM main gun like increasing its length etc to hit targets upto 7-8km or more apart? btw what's present range?
4) After undergoing subsequent up-gradation how is it going to perform in hunter killer mode??
5) how about its post up-gradation cost?
6) Internal AC?
7) since 1500HP is peak power available what is avg power available for this engine?
8) Which transmission gonna be used? & its details.
9) Acceleration rate? since IA required a heavy weight Ferrari.
10) Number of rounds in Auto/Manual loader? & in m/c guns too?
11) People from army told me once that it is a maintenance intensive m/c when compared to T90 etc so what are the steps taken to reduce its maintenance requirement & increase its availability rate??
12) Types of electronics gonna be used, like cameras, radar, image processing systems, mast mounted camera (if applicable), automation level etc??
13) what are the things gonna be done for reducing its heat sign?
14) performance (both offensive & defensive) vs other available tanks especially pakistan & china??

Rajesh Mishra said...

So India should be ready to purchase the THAAD immediately once the USA actively helps the India to liberate the POK inclusive of G&B and helps to physically finish all the Pakistani nukes irrespective of whether their keys having with China or Pakistan. Further then India should also go for the F-16/F-18.

jasss gill said...

Sir, why IA tanks have not AC some reports said almost sixty degree temperatures inside the tank in summer how affect on crew members.Does pakstani tanks have AC?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYA: Yes, GB is a vast stretch of land, but all of the PA’s deployments in PoK are within AJK along the LoC. The PA does not have troop concentrations to the west or north, facing Afghanistan & China. As for Lt Gen Hooda’s initial comment about retaliation, he was referring to only the first 48 hours, i.e. from September 30 till October 1, 2016. He has since clarified (i.e. echoed what I had stated back then) that when Pakistan flatly denied that any cross-LoC raids had taken place, it was evident to everybody that the PA won’t retaliate in any manner due to its inability to do so. After all, why retaliate when there was no reason to retaliate, i.e. if the PA insists that no cross-LoC raids took place, then where’s the need for any retaliation? Had the PA accepted that the IA did cross the LoC to conduct the raids, then the PA would have been reqd to retaliate in order to preserve its moral ascendency. But since the PA could not do so due to its overstretched deployment along the Durand Line & the consequent thinning down of its troop deployments along the LoC, the PA’s only option therefore to deny that the IA had conducted the cross-LoC raids.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GANESH: Simply put, NO. Even countries like Russia, China & Japan haven’t yet succeeded in developing a credible space-based early-warning network. Consequently, countries like India, Israel & Japan have no other choice but to rely on early-warning cues from the US & hence Israel & Japan have already inked foundational agreements like the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). Secondly, there’s the issue of inter-operability & systems compatibility, I,e can US-origin early-warning SATCOM data-links be integrated with S-400 LR-SAM Batteries/Squadrons? Obviously not. Can it be done in case of Israel-origin BMD systems? Yes.

WRT CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, the US Senate early this month inserted four new clauses under Section 1292 of the Act 'Enhancing Defense and Security Cooperation with India' in its defence budget passed last May. The new clauses empower the Trump Administration to suspend CAATSA sanctions, but it has to certify that India was reducing its dependency on Russia 'and has a desire to continue doing so'. The clauses are of the nature of describing 'limitations that hinder or slow (down) progress' in India-US ties, 'a description of actions India is taking, or the actions the Secretary of Defense or the Secretary of State believe India should take', to advance the relationship with the US, measures that can be taken by the US and India to improve inter-operability. And, lastly, it also inserts a clause 'progress in enabling agreements between the US and India'. The last reflects the Trump Administration's pique over India's slow progress in inking the COMCASA & BECA. In essence, the US wants countries like India, Indonesia & Vietnam to desist from continuing to import weapon systems from Russia (till the CAATSA remains operational for an estimated 4-year period). India has already obliged by agreeing to terminate the FGFA’s co-development effort in April 2018 & the licenced-assembly of Ka-226T helicopters will also meet the same fate. But the already-finalised contracts to lease a 2nd Project 971 SSGN for US$2 billion & to acquire an additional 3 Project 1135.6 FFGs from Russia are now in limbo.

For servicing contracts already inked, India and Russia have moved away from US$ and Euros and now do business in Rupees and Roubles. Agreements are being re-drafted and new modes of payments being established between Indian and Russian state-owned banks. Syndicate Bank, Vijaya Bank and the Indian Bank and Sberbank of Russia have been designated to handle the Rupee-Rouble payments for India to pay for already-inked contracts. The payments bypass SWIFT transactions, which are routed through New York & Brussels. The first contracts were redrawn recently for the $208 million mid-life upgrade of Type 877EKM INS Sindhukirti SSK in Russia.

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,


Thanks for your Reply.
Syria Massing Troops To Attack Israel Buffer Zone As U.S. Warns

Is Golan Heights Will be next major battle field between Syria+Iran+Russia VS Israel+US

Please give your Opinion.

S.Senthil Kumar

Parthiv said...

Hi Prasun,

1) I really don't think the whole of POK is cards but Haji Pir Pass is definitely possible considering the political situation. What is your assessment of the PA's reaction after the adventure by India? A surgical strike, they could reject by taking a bunch of journalists on a picknick but how can they get away with India occupying mountain peaks?

2) I have been hearing this possibility since early 2015. How come Pakistan did get a wind of this adventure? if it did already why don't we see it taking precautionary measures military or diplomatically?


Ludwig said...

Sir, what would happen of super Sukhoi upgrade? Would it be possible for HAL to undertake it on its own? Maybe with some western help?

Harsh said...

1. Plz be specific about the number of frigates in pipeline from russia- 3 or 4? Every source is confused.

2. Before taking any kind of action in taking over haji pir....the government will have to create suitable atmosphere within the country through the media.... and I don't know why I feel that most news channels are continuously propping up more cross border strikes theory since the release of the surgical strike video. Is it how the people are being psychologically moulded for the eventuality?

I am sorry if I am reading too much in the news channels recent behaviour. Because in fact now there rhetoric is now becoming boring.

Anonymous said...

How can India protect its major populous cities from PA nuclear armed cruise missiles n ballistic missiles if India occupies PoK


buddha said...
Sir your view...

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: It is not just this NDA-2 govt, but all past govts since the 1960s that have been intoxicated by this ‘Mantra’ about initiating licenced-production of imported weapons in the hope of learning of eventually learning how to design & develop homegrown products. The harsh reality, however, is that no one in the world has been able to implement such a spectacularly outrageous product developmental roadmap. Why one can acquire ‘know-why’ expertise from such endeavours, the ‘know-how’ element always remains elusive & to master the know-how there are only 2 ways: industrial espionage & mega-investments in homegrown R & D. And India has not engaged in either of the two. So, the only remaining option is to adopt the indirect industrial offsets route, i.e. if US$12 billion will be spent on procuring 126 Rafale MMRCAs, then at least $6 billion must be ploughed back into India’s economy. But how does one do this? Elementary: HAL should team up with Dassault Aviation, SNECMA Moteurs & THALES to co-develop a family of high-wing STOL regional turbofan-powered commercial commuter transport aircraft capable of seationg between 30 and 60 passengers. Such aircraft will be in very high demand in the years to come both within India & outside India as well, & such ventures--involving thousands of private-sector subcontractors as well--will create tens of lakhs of jobs both upstream & downstream. This is exactly what Japan did in the 1970s, followed by China since the early 1980s & today both of them are developing their respective home-grown airliners & helicopters. Now, why such a simple, common-sensical & logical industrial development formula continues to be non-existent & why in stead there is an illogical & nonsencial insstence on direct industrial offsets remains a mystery to everyone who believes in application of common-sense.

To ASHISH GAUTAM: 1) It is more than enough. 2) Wherever they can be transported to by road, rail & air. 3) Increase in cannon barrel length will result in problems in accommodating the MBTs in railway trailer-beds & aircraft like the C-17As. Far better therefore to increase the barrel diameter. 4) Eaxctly as it is expected to. 5) What about it? 6) Why the need for AC? 7) This figure has no relevance at all, since armed forces worldwide aren’t thrifty when it comes to fuel consumption. Only civilians worry about mileage. 8) The term Powerpack includes transmission, which are available from France, Germany & the US. Funnily, all those ‘desis’ clamouring for the 2.3-tonne ‘Bharat Powerpack’ have always focussed only on the diesel engine, & not the transmission, despite the fact that no one in India can develop such transmissions. That’s how myopic such ‘desi bandalbaazes’ & internet fanboys are! 9) Rate will be the same as in all other contemporary MBTs. 10) Total of 40. 11) That is already resolved after HVF developed a performance-based logistics package for the IA’s MGO Branch. 12) Already mentioned all those in the previous thread. 13) Barracuda camouglage netting from Sweden has already been procured. 14) Already uploaded all thoseslides in the previous thread. Why are such questions being asked again & again?

To JASSS GILL: Why should MBTs require AC? Do Pakistan’s MBTs have AC? Did the PA use tanks during daytime at Longewala in 1971? Why did the PA launch its attack on Longewala after dusk?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PARTHIV: 1) After defeating & ejecting the PA from AJK, doing the same in GB will be a cakewalk since there are no PA strongpoints or heavy deployments anywhere within GB. And why should Pakistan be allowed to ‘get away’? After all, no one country in the world publicly supports Pakistan’s views on the J & K issue at any of the annual sessions of the UN General Assembly. So why should anyone voice support for Pakistan’s PoV when India decides to militarily eject the PA from AJK & GB? Folks often forget that UNSC Resolution No.48 cannot be implemented solely because of Pakistan’s refusal to vacate its aggression of PoK (inclusive of GB). Consequently, no plebiscite can take place there as well. Nor can this UN resolution be implemented by any third party by force because this resolution is under the UNSC Charter’s Chapter 6 (non-binding resolution). Only Chapter 7 resolutions are binding. 2) Of course Pakistan now knows about both India’s intent & will for ejecting Pakistani forces from PoK. But what can Pakistan do? Threaten to explode nuclear WMDs inside J & K or PoK? Even China regards Pakistan’s occupation of PoK as a contentious issue & has therefore desisted from referring to the 1963 China-Pakistan boundary agreement as a final & settled issue.

To LUDWIG: Of course India can upgrade the Su-30MNKI to Super Su-30MKI standard in terms of all the avionics enhancements. But the more powerful AL-41F turbofans will have to be imported from Russia.

To HARSH: 1) One to be imported off-the-shelf from Russia & three to be licence-built by GSL. Abd BTW, this is the most outrageous manifestation of the ‘Make in India’ slogan. After all, why should the Indian taxpayer’s money be wasted on GSL learning how to make FFGs of an imported design when Mazagon Dock Shipbuilding Ltd can easily build additional Project 17 FFGs at far lesser costs? Can anyone in this world provide a convincing narrative on what justifies such a wasteful expenditur being incurred for licence-building or procuring additional Russia-origin FFGs? 2) Right now, there’s only a caretaker PM at the helm in Pakistan, & there’s no defence or foreign minister either. In other words, the apex decision-making process is paralytic in Pakistan. Hence just an initial setback like the loss of Haji Pir will lead to rapid haemmorhaging in bopth Islamabad & Rawalpindi & over a period of another 90 days one by one the chips will start dropping, like Astore, Skardu & Gilgit. As far as militarily ejecting the PA from AJK, it can easily be achieved within 10 days flat.

To RON: Wrong choice of words. India won’t be the occupying party in PoK. It is Pakistan that is the present-day occupying party. That’s why no other country voices solidarity with Pakistan at the UN General Assembly whenever Pakistan raises the Kashmir issue there. If India forcibly ejects the PA from PoK then all the UN resolutions WRT J & K automatically become irrelevant & therefore the question of holding a UN-prescribed plebiscite does not even arise.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAN & KAUSTAV: It seems now (LoLz!) some kind of common-sense is now dawning at last WRT India’s options vis-à-vis Iran less than 38 hours after my prevsious explanations on this issue:

Looks like the ‘desi patrakaars’ are now veering towards my PoV. Well, good for them. And very soon they will also realise that if India is desirous of operating stealthy 5th-gen MRCAs or SATCOM-controlled UAS, or wants access to early-warnings through SOSUS networks or space-based surveillance satellites, then all these can come only from the West, & the US & Israel in particular. Even Russia is operating Israel-supplied MALE-UAVs. Of course the CAATSA’s validity period is not in perpetuity and hence India can wait it out for another 3 or 4 years by refraining from inking major military hardware procurement contracts. I can only pray that the Ka-226T deal dies for good, since this will translate into more numbers of the HAL-developed LUH being procured. The S-400 deal too can be postponed in favour of procuring instead the 2nd Type 971 SSGN on lease, since it can be convincingly arguied that this deal was ‘grandfathered’ at the same as the deal for leasing the INS Chakra, i.e. the contract can be back-dated.

Ganesh said...

Hello Prasun,
Thanks for your response; from whatever negligible I understand about remote sensing satellites; could it not be used as the last layer of the space based early warning system with optimal numbers orbiting above India all the time to have a redundant coverage and since India has now the Cryogenic upper stage engine having satellites with whatever (I suppose with relevant cameras!) to have a early warning system. According to me the adversaries are not beyond Indian borders (which means lesser reaction time). I believe, we need to have a mix of eyes to ascertain the cues constantly. The famed jugaad needs to be applied for doing a job.
I read this article and I find it amusing that anybody interfacing a politician becomes a sycophant and it is left to confused soul (no disrespect meant) to work for the motherland with sincerity to save the day. Balls to our culture of boot-licking and prayers for patriots.

Without fundamental research on a subject and converting the inventions/discoveries into a profitable venture, I do not see any progress to make our land prosperous again.

With all the hue and cry about the cross border raids (whose videos were released couple of days ago) leads to the thought that the intention is to crow about the past efforts/glories and capitalize the future for current dispensation. As per my understanding if East India company aka Congress and its rainbow coalition is to be stopped and if the present dispensation needs a booster for another term, it needs to get back the Indian land lost/sold by our Bharat ratna Cha Cha to west of our country.

With no FATF black list for people of religion of piece and only gray list, it is a temporary reprieve. I hope the present dispensation does the needful
Thanks, Ganesh

Srinivasa Nanduri Ramanujam said...

Hi Prasun,

Thank you for your comments.

Really feel sad about why our decision makers don't get this POV. Your point about imported ffg to license built in India, is case in point. Hope that deal along with s400 and ka226t die out.

Instead hope more mdl built ffgs and THAAD should be procured.

There is great resistance within india for signing BECA and Comcasa.why i dont understand. Hope this goes away.

Don't see rationalization in MOD policies either.

Your comments about China and Pakistan give much clearer situational understanding that the botched up news cycle. Our media has such misconstrued approach towards it.

Also the question of more Rafales is still hanging around.

Don't understand this mmrca2 competition that media talks about and how this f18s in the frey via HAL. Again a scam of license building something for much more cost.

Instead cant we buy more Rafales, with indirect offsets where France works with India on AMCA. That along with some tata built f16s can address IAF shortfall. You have written about this before. Why is it so difficult.

I really hope some common sense gets into MOD and they read your posts.

As unfortunate as it is to say, as you once wrote, 'India is a refuse to develop nation'.

We do not have clear industrial policy, no R&D and no real or true welfare social program.

Srinivasa Nanduri

bhoutik said...

* how useful is the limited Indian space based IR early warning capability for BMD?

* kangaroos just selected a version of type 26 GCS for their frigate programme. wouldn't it have been better to select a variant of their new destroyer? does politics and loyalty to Britain have something to do with this? And would the japanese subs have been a better choice capability wise than the french ones they chose, and was ethnic european solidarity a reason for choosing it?

* don't know much about the CEAFAR radar. if you could shed some light prashun bhai...

* interesting piece here -

your thoughts about the design, and chances of it winning...

* is the US changing their goals in Syria? -


and any info you might provide on the above news item as well...

* why the spherical radomes for the MRIS vessel unlike USNS howard lorenzen?

* a ship was being used to hold in place the anti-diver net. Is that standard practice? and what threats are they protecting from. meaning terrorists or espionage?

Pierre Zorin said...

"Now, why such a simple, common-sensical & logical industrial development formula continues to be non-existent & why in stead there is an illogical & nonsencial insstence on direct industrial offsets remains a mystery to everyone who believes in application of common-sense."
May be that is what the IQ tests have been referring to. Indians (read Leaders)....should be the inference.

As we both know Prasun there are NO friends in international politics only pragmatism dictates relationships. Seeing Russia is so cozy with China and has sold S400 to them, India can manipulate the US by opting for not only the THAAD, but lease of a N sub or subs clearly explaining that all India is interested is in the hardware doesn't matter who supplies as long as someone does and sign up for the agreements deliberately and hypocritically avoided so far - that way it might be possible to twist Uncle Sam's arms and squeeze out deals. Like in any business quid pro quo might yield more than India can get from Russians anyway.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: The Syrian Army is after the Al Nusra Front, an Al Qaeda affiliate. Syria is in no position to attack Israel anywhere & in any form, kindly rest assured. And Iran’s economy is now in freefall. The Rial is depreciating like enevr before & even the ultra-Conservatives are now joining the growing ranks of protesters:

To GANESH: No, not remote-sensing satellites. BMD early-warning satellites are positioned in geo-stationary orbits & possess cutting-edge electro-optical sensors. In India’s case, one requires at least four such satellites, plus active phased-array BMEWS-type radars. As for FATF, here is an excellent explanation of the issue as well as the repercussions:

BTW, Pakistan’s grey-listing was done in the aftermath of a complaint filed by Indonesia & NOT India. Meanwhile, the ISPR’s first of many more conspiracy theories have now started doing the rounds:

And here’s Lahore's Little India

To SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAM: VMT. It is n ot just about an LR-SAM like THAAD, but more about going for a complete functional system, which the S-400 does not offer. Those who are against inking of BECA & COMCASA agreements are the very same who were against the inking of LEMOA & who were totally ignorant of a similar that India had inked with the then USSR in the early 1980s after the Russia-assisted construction of Vizag naval base was completed. The USSR was then granted access to the Soviet Navy’s spy trawlers & SSGNs & SSNs whenever such vessels operating in the IOR were in urgent need of emergency repairs. As for SEF or MMRCA 2.0, kindly rest assured that there’s simply no money left in the kitty for procuring SEFs. The only option now on the table is the procurement of additional Rafales and additional Su-30MKIs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BHOUTIK: 1) India does not as yet possess any proven & credible space-based sensor that can provide early-warning cues for hostile BM launches. 2) For Australia, the overriding emphasis is always on the industrial aspects of such military procurements. Hence, whosoever proposes the maximum local industrial content, wins the race. 3) LoLz! With France’s NAVAL Group already well-entrenched in Brazil due to the Scorpene submarine procurement project there, anyone else trying to fish in Brazilian waters will eventually realise that this will be a futile exercise. 4) Not at all. The US & Russia both desire a power-sharing arrangement & do not want any one party to emerge as the largest & most powerful victor. 5) It’s just a HUD, the likes of which have already been developed by SAMTEL-THALES Avionics. Along with that HUD is a Get-You-Home system that is now in series-production by a Tamil Nadu-based private Ltd company. 6) Because the US is far ahead of India in the arena of composites-built radome design-n-development. 7) Nope. That photo was taken when the anti-diver’s net was in the process of being deployed. Such nets prevent those who are interested in covertly scoping the docked vessels. Terrorists don’t need to be ciovert as they can always launch suicide missions.

To PIERRE ZORIN: The real assassins of MOSSAD:

To BUDDHA: In case you missed it: UFOs & Nukes:

Aditya Kamble said...

Hello Prasun,
In the last thread you said that Arjun Mk2 will have a smoothbore gun. So how are we going to get the gun. Is there any indigeneous development going on? or are we going to just import it??

Anupu said...

Sir, While I do believe India needs to appease the US for a while. I find it difficult to believe India cannot make IR based early warning systems for BM launches. Something like SIBRIS low can be made quite easily by us. Moreover considering our Primary Threats are close by an LEO swarm of satellites with one or two GEO satellites can do the job pretty well.

rad said...

hi prasun

talking of BMEW , can we make a smilar system like the cobra dane ? what would be the greatest challenge?

cost , software , hardware or money?

as we have some experience in PESA AND AESA radars should it wouldn't be a problem.

my best bet would be ISRO.?

what would be the consequences if the s-400 deal is scrapped ? what action to expect from russia

the HUD depicted by CSIO seems to be more sleek? is it holographic,? or just a souped up version of the old stuff on the LCA?

what was the real cause of the su-30mki crash recently?

Just_curious said...

Another article berating the rafale deal …

Srinivasa Nanduri Ramanujam said...

Hi Prasun,

Your comments about additional Rafales is a sensible option. But with the likes of geniuses as below, it's a hard sell.

Off late anti modi became anti India and they keep propagating their agenda no matter how badly it hurts India.

From UNHRC report to the women's safety report to this under hand biased articles, they do more harm to public perception at large then server national good.

And I was reading the Naseem Zehra's book and the sense I got was Indian leadership was not prepared for any of the things that happened and was at one point even ready to make a deal with Nawaz Sharif. While Pakistani nitwit of PM Nawaz sharif is found to be dumb and foolish. I read your thoughts on this faux pas and how we missed an opportunity to get haji pir pass. Hope these blunders are of the past and Indian establishment learnt it's lessons.

Srinivasa Nanduri

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

Prasun Da, intend to buy this one:

The Zero-Cost Mission/The Wily Agent (City Plans) by Amar Bhushan from Amazon

Prasun Da, is it true that R &AW dismantled Jamate e islami terror infrastructure in Bangladesh, that in the same time when a hostile BNP in power ?

Kindly share your view in this regard.

Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

Of course Pakistan now knows about both India’s intent & will for ejecting Pakistani forces from PoK. But what can Pakistan do?

1) doesn’t US along P5 nations put pressure on India to withdraw from PoK if we hold Hajipir pass along with PoK( like it happened with Pakistan Operation Koh Paima )if they doesn’t please mention valid points
2) No country in the world (except some) officially recognises J&K as integral part of India. But recognises it as disputed territory. If we capture PoK or any part of it World will view India as a aggressor and title of soft power will be lost.


Nag said...

Hello Prasun

If this thing works as advertised, I think India should buy a few to 'instantly carbonize' the kashmiri stone pelting mobs.

Don't know why is India still shy of arming Vietnam

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ADITYA KAMBLE: All I can say is that as per the laws of physics, it is far easier to develop a smoothbore cannon than a rifled-bore cannon. Now, sin ce the latter has already been developed & fielded, logic dictates that the former’s developmental process should not pose any kind of challenge.

ANUPU: Why is that so difficult to believe pr accept as a fact-of-life? If a country takes more than 20 years to develop just a HUD for MRCA, then how long will it take to develop far more intricate electro-optical sensors for space-based satellites? Only those countries that have mastered the science of targetting/designation pods possess the know-how & industrial capabilities reqd for making cutting-edge optronic sensors for BMEWS. Has anybody in India developed & produced homegrown targetting/designation pods? Has anyone mass-produced the IRCCD-FPA chips reqd for night-vision devices? Or are they still imported from France & Israel? Finally, the sheer size of deploying a space-based BMEWS sensor network is the greatest hurdle in financial terms. Hence, only a collective cooperative security framework will be able to muster the necessary finances, like a Japan-India-Australasia-ASEAN axis.

To RAD: As I’ve just explained above, the sheer size of deploying a space-based BMEWS sensor network is the greatest hurdle in financial terms. Hence, only a collective cooperative security framework will be able to muster the necessary finances, like a Japan-India-Australasia-ASEAN axis. As for the S-400, I haven’t yet come across any video evidence showing the S-400 shooting down a TBM or IRBM or MRBM. Secondly, the S-400 is optimised for high-altitude interceptions & therefore is TOTALLY USELESS against tactical MRCAs flying lo-lo-lo flight profiles—which will pose the greatest threat to India’s hinterland. Any objective assessment will therfore conclude that the S-400 LR-SAM is totally ill-suited for securing India’s airspacem unless the IAF fears attacks from high-flying aircraft like the B-1B, Tu-160 or B-52s! If indeed the threat comes from BMs of all types, then one should go for proven systems like either the Arrow-2 or THAAD, which are compatible with the US-deployed space-based BMEWS sensor network. Now about the HUDs. The photo appearing in HT newspaper shows the CSIO-developed HUD for the HJT-36 IJT:

This is the HUD for the LCA/Tejas Mk.1/Tejas Mk.1A:

And this is the up-front control-panel of the HUD:

The HUD for the Combat Hawk Mk.132 is supplied by SAMTEL-THALES (the same HUD that equips the Su-30MKI & Jaguar IS/DARIN-3):

Lastly, ALL Su-30MKI crashes to date have been due to human error that are either related to the aircrew, or the ground crew, or the HAL employees involved with licenced-production opf the aircraft. And in ALL instances of in-flight failures of Russia-designed aircraft components/sub-systems, the affected aircraft was successfully recovered back to its air base without any fatality. That’s the stark reality.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: Yup, like I had observed before, the ranks of the ‘desi bandalbaazes’ are growing at an ever-faster rate!!!

To SRINIVASA NANDURI RAMANUJAML: Wait! There’s more coming in terms of toxifying the reportage from J & K:

However, these are the realities that are known to every foreign diplomat based in Delhi:

One must also take note that the Valley-based newspapers are titled RISING KASHMIR, GREATER KASHMIR or KASHMIR READER. Not one of them bothers to include the terms JAMMU or LADAKH in their newspaper names. That clearly shows thje bias displayed by these newspapers when it comes to reportage on J & K-related events/developments.

To SUMANTA NAG: Yup, it’s 100% true, & that’s how the Awami League swept back to power in 1996. And if you want to read about the IB’s & later R & AW’s real involvement in East Pakistan between December 1962 & December 1971, then one must read this:

And for those who are interested in reading about the IAF’s night-flying expertise & tactics on the eve of 1971, here’s an excellent book:

To RON: 1) What can Pakistan do? I can only recommend the overlords of Pakistan keep twiddling their thumbs & put their heads in between their legs & kiss their arses goodbye in lieu of the arrival of KAYAAMAT. 2) No one in this world has the time or patience to get involved in any manner WRT J & K issue. They are too busy with Yemen, Syria, Iran & Afghanistan. 3) Show me ONE country apart from Pakistan in this world that officially states that PoK (inclusive of GB) is an integral part of Pakistan, or that J & K & PoK are disputed territories. Has any country ever voiced its support for Pakistan's PoV at the successive annual sessions of the UN General Assembly?

Anupu said...

Again, with all due respect, I find it hard to believe that lack of electrooptics sensors for ground applications and industry has anything to do with building some 20 satellites.

We have previously built space-based thermal applications, INSAT-3DR, Thermal Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (TIS) on MOM, working on a new Thermal infrared satellite mission with CNES

I think we have enough experience to build a sensor if it came to it. now the resolution may be an issue, and it may not be a "cutting-edge" one as you said.

But again,
We didn't have atomic clocks of our own but we still built NAVIC. We could buy them off the shelf. They may not be the best out there but a satellite can fly in much lower earth orbit (Or an elliptical one), many may deorbit over time. But they can be replaced.

In fact, that's what US is planning to do, making disposable SBIRS low type satellites which are much cheaper to build. And makes the system much more resistant to Anti-satellite weapons.

We who have nailed deploying a large number of small satellites in one launch should definitely attempt something like this.

Rajesh Mishra said...

Your reply regarding the POK (inclusive of G&B) was just marvelous.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANUPU: It's no use relying on terms like "I find it hard to believe" or "I think" or "we could" or "may be". Instead, some common-sensical research aimed at expanding one's intellectual horizons will produce the specific answers/solutions. Had it been so easy to develop & field a constellation of satellites, then Russia, the UK, France, Japan & China would by now have fielded them. As for what kind of resolution is reqd for such satellites & why, you need to do further reading-up on such issues. And building a satellite with experimental payloads does not translate into the capability for fielding an entire constellation of operational early-warning satellites. And as for your citing of the experimental TI spectrometer, it is like claiming that the powerpack of a Suzuki Swift is applicable for a Toyota Camry as well. Hence, it will do you some good to do away with suppositions & instead deal with the specifics.

To RAJESH MISHRA: VMT. Here's another interesting read:

just_curious said...


seems to be a very pragmatic view of mmrca 2.0 what hurts is the timeline shared by the analysts for the prod to actually start [if at all this actually gets off the ground].. So much for MoD's silliness. Me feels RG saying something about rafale got the govt go into an extra cautious mode. What pains is both parties seem not to be bothered about the country but just on hang to power

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To JUST_CURIOUS: Rest assured that such internet fanboys dabble in anything & everything except for the all-critical financial factors/cost-benefit analysis, which can be explained only by domain experts. The virus of 'licenced-production' is now firmly embedded within the DNA of almost 99.9999% of Indian citizens who have been brainwashed over the past 70 years & who therefore are bereft of the methodology of applying common-sense & logical reasoning. Consequently, be it any political party, they are all active practisioners of 'muddling one's way through'. They thus are at best tacticians & every single one of them from the topmost to the bottommost are at best tacticians, & are totally incapable of grand strategising. No wonder subjects like Kautilya's Arthashastra & 'How to Engineer Empire-Building' (as practised by Asoka or Ahbar) are never prescribed as NCERT textbooks! Instead folks start bickering about Rajputs versus Mughals while forgetting that Akbar had married a Rajput lady & had produced Jahangir who in turn produced Shah Jahan & who in turn produced Aurangzeb, i.e. from Jahangir onwards all ruling Mughal Shahenshahs had both Mughal & Rajput DNAs.