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Friday, March 1, 2019

Airpower Application In Sub-Conventional Warfare: Decoding The IAF's February 26 Non-Military Pre-Emptive Air-Strike & February 27 Air Combat Over J & K/PoK

Conclusive Evidence of Successful IAF Air-Strike on JeM-Owned Madrassa Taleem al-Quran at Jabba Top, Balakot, in KPK, Pakistan

A little known fact that now needs to be highlighted is that back in the last quarter of 2016, after the Indian Army had conducted what was then officially as a low-intensity, cross-LoC counter-terror operation on the night of September 28/29, India was roundly castigated behind closed doors by all her wellwishers, especially the US, UK, France and Russia. And this was not for conducting the cross-LoC raids, but for not doing it on a far greater scale. In other words, India was berated for continuing to punch way below her weight, while her adversary was engaged in doing just the opposite since the early 1990s. To be fair, it was then unrealistic to expect a revolutionary thought-paradigm from a bureaucratic and political establishment that had inherited the dogma and scepticism prevailing over the past 26 years. As a result, India had clung to an attrition-heavy strategy, fatalistically accepting casualties. Matters were in their worst state between 2007 and September 2016 when India had argued that she was not ready to test the escalation ladder, this being highly reflective of the characteristics of a diffident power. However, the shocking messages and words of advice that India received post-September 29, 2016 at last provided the long-overdue shock-therapy that forced India’s bureaucratic and political establishment to draft new red-lines in the war against terrorism and this was to be the genesis for the planning and eventual conduct of the February 26 airstrikes by the Indian Air Force (IAF) against a principal Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terror training facility inside Pakistan.
While conceiving and planning such a coordinated airstrike is second-nature to the IAF, acquisition of the necessary implementation tools, especially the high-accuracy locational coordinates of the targetted facility as well as high-accuracy navigational waypoints inside hostile airspace in areas where no sympathetic local human resources were bound to be available, was the principal challenge. And this is where the strategic partnership between Afghanistan and India was to play a decisive role, in particular the human resource assets of Afghanistan’s Riyasat-e Amniyat-e Milli, or the National Directorate of Security (NDS) embedded within Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, within which the targetted JeM facility was located. After acquiring the mandatory high-accuracy locational coordinates, it was the turn of the Safran Electronics & Defense-supplied Mission Analysis and Restitution System (MARS) of the IAF to be put to use. In essence, this tool creates flight and attack plans; analyzes missions, with video playback; provides tactical situational awareness (flight corridors, positions of threats, etc.) and geographical 2-D and 3-D environment (digital maps, terrain profiles, meteorological conditions, etc.); and finalises weapons-to-target matching parameters and operating protocols for electronic systems (electronic warfare, target acquisition/designation pods, radio, IFF, etc). All these taskings were completed by February 18, i.e. within four days of getting the political go-ahead. Another five days were consumed by various asset mobilisation efforts throughout the IAF’s Western and Central Air Commands, which involved the following:
1) Adampur AFS: 8 Wing’s 47 ‘Black Archers’ Sqn and 223 ‘Tridents’ Sqn with MiG-29B-12s and MiG-29UPGs.
2) Bhisiana AFS: 34 Wing’s 17 ‘Golden Arrows’ Sqn with Su-30MKIs and 200 ‘Netra’ Sqn with EMB-145I AEW & CS platforms.
3) Gwalior AFS: 40 Wing’s 1 ‘Tigers’ Sqn, 7 ‘Battleaxes’ Sqn and 9 ‘Wolfpack’ Sqn with Mirage 2000Hs/THs/INs.
4) Halwara AFS: 34 Wing’s 220 ‘Desert Tigers’ Sqn with Su-30MKIs.
5) Pathankot AFS: 18 Wing’s 26 ‘Warriors’ Sqn with MiG-21 Bisons and 108 ‘Hawkeyes’ Sqn with MiG-21Ms.
6) Sirsa AFS: 45 Wing’s 21 ‘Ankush’ Sqn with MiG-21 Bisons.
7) Avantipora AFS: 1 Wing’s 51 ‘Sword Arms’ Sqn with MiG-21 Bisons.
8) Agra AFS: A-50EI PHALCONs of 50 Sqn and 78 ‘Valorous Mars’ Sqn with IL-78MKI aerial refuelling tankers.
Also activated were the radar stations at Barnala in Punjab and Patni Top in Jammu, both of which host aerostat-mounted EL/M-2083 L-band active phased-array medium-power radars. Command and control for the entire air operation was to be exercised by HQ Western Air Command.
By February 22 the mobilisation was completed and mission rehearsals began the very next day, especially over the skies of Punjab, Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir. Reacting to this, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) intensified its number of combat air patrols (CAP) throughout its Northern and Central Air Commands, with the Rafiqui air base monitoring the sorties mounted by IAF combat aircraft taking off from Bhisiana, and the Kamra and Sargodha air bases monitoring the sorties mounted by IAF combat aircraft taking off from Adampur, Halwara, Srinagar and Avantipora.
Shortly after 2am on February 26, six Mirage 2000Hs (three of which were each armed with three 1,000lb HSLD bombs while the other three were each armed with two Spice-2000 PGMs) took off from their home-base in Gwalior and entered a pre-determined air-corridor that took them to Agra, where they were refuelled in mid-air by two IL-78MKIs. By 3am, another six Mirage-2000Hs that had already re-deployed from Gwalior to Adampur a day earlier, headed for eastern Himachal Pradesh where they, along with the Mirage-2000s from Agra, were all refuelled by three IL-78MKIs. This combined force then turned northwest towards northern Jammu & Kashmir. Meanwhile, as part of an elaborate deception plan, the IAF, between 3.30am and 4pm, launched two six-aircraft sorties in a staggered manner from Bhisiana towards Okara-Bahawalpur, and from Halwara towards Lahore—this being to distract the two CAPs of the PAF that were airborne that night from Rafiqui and Sargodha.
Meanwhile, the six-unit Mirage-2000 strike formation broke into two, with the three Mirage 2000s armed with HSLD bombs resorting to terrain-masking flight-profiles when commencing the 21-minute attack-run from Tangdhar and setting course for Balakot. The remaining three Mirage-2000s armed with six Spice-2000s too entered PoK airspace at 3.30am and headed for a location northwest of Muzaffarabad (north-east of Garhi Habibullah inside KPK) while adopting a terrain-masking flight-profile. About 10 minutes later, the remaining six Mirage 2000s started mounting a medium-altitude CAP over the Keran Valley inside PoK and these were detected by the PAF’s Kamra-based airspace surveillance radar, which in turn ordered a scramble of two F-16s from Chaklala air base in Rawalpindi. However, by then the three Mirage-2000s had by 3.35am already launched five Spice-2000s from an altitude of 20,000 feet so that the target was attacked by these PGMs by 3.45am from the southwest (while one did not launch due to a technical malfunction). Immediately after this, the three Mirage-2000s began their return journey, while the three HSLD bomb-armed Mirage-2000s took only four minutes to arrive over Balakot from a northeastern direction and succeeded in bombing the targetted JeM facility for a second time between 3.45am and 3.53am IST, while the PAF’s F-16s were still 120km away (their reached Balakot only four minutes later).
Out of the earmarked strike-package of six IAF Mirage 2000s, it can now be safely inferred (based on local eye-witness accounts from Jabba Village in Balakot who spoke to the BBC) that in the pre-dawn hours of February 26, the villagers first heard five loud explosions at 1- to 2-minute intervals (these being the exploding Spice-2000s), and these were followed by the overhead noise of the three HSLD bomb-armed Mirage-2000s that sequentially made a 360-degree circle around the target, following which one after another they dropped the bombs (as per local eye-witnesses) on Jabba Top (at an elevation of 4,000 feet above sea-level) at Kagan Gali along the Kunhar River inside KPK. This means that the two separate air-strike packages were totally successful, with the five Spice-2000s achieving pinpoint accuracy and causing damage through its high-fragmentation warheads, with the HSLD bombs finishing off the job by demolishing whatever was left standing through their blast-fragmentation explosive materials.
RAFAEL Advanced Defence Systems’ Smart, Precise Impact and Cost-Effective (SPICE), is a guidance and manoeuvring kit, with the former comprising a miniature fibre-optic gyro, an optional GPS receiver, and an IIR seeker for terminal-stage pinpoint accuracy, and control-fins. Weighing about 907kg, the Spice-2000 can glide out to a range of 60km while not being affected by heavy cloud-cover and other weather conditions, unlike laser-guided bombs. A man-in-the-loop guidance mechanism ensures that the Spice-2000’s IIR seeker relays the forward field-of-view imagery to the launch-aircraft in real-time via a PEGASUS data-link pod attached to an underbelly pylon of the launch-aircraft. Such an operating mode, however, is used when the PGM is required to hit its target in a shallow dive.
In case of the February 26 air-strike, the Spice-2000 was employed in a shallow-dive but top-attack flight-profile (with the target recognition algorithm being programmed to lock-on to a hilltop-sited target that stands out from among other man-made structures at lower altitudes), thereby doing away with the need for real-time man-in-the-loop guidance cues. It was in 2013 that the IAF had ordered the Spice-2000s, with final deliveries concluding by December 2015. Its first operational usage in a “non-military pre-emptive action” thus indicated the IAF’s air-strike was not an act of revenge or retribution, but was of a sub-conventional nature and an act of self-defence to prevent a likely terror attack in the future.
Each of the three Mirage 2000s that were armed with three OFB-built 1,000lb high-speed low-drag bombs (thereby accounting for a total of nine HSLD bombs being dropped) wre also equipped with Litening-2 target acquisition/laser designation pods whose IR imagery of the terrain below was displayed on the Mirage-2000's HUDs when operating in the raster-display mode.
Imagery (below) emanating from the targetted area from Pakistani sources indicates that the shallow craters and blown-up trees were not due to the exploding HSLD bombs (since the trees would have been burnt-up had the bombs exploded nearby), but were from IED explosions, most probably triggered by the trainee JeM cadres or their instructors for training purposes in the recent past.
In the IAF’s MRCA inventory, the most versatile platforms are the Dassault Aviation-built Mirage 2000s as they have highest number of weapons-to-target-matching combinations, a feat that will be equaled in future by the Dassault Aviation-built Rafale M-MRCAs.
The aerial confrontation on the morning of February 27 involved eight F-16s, four Mirage-IIIEAs and four JF-17s of the PAF, and three MiG-21 Bisons, two upgraded Mirage 2000INs and four Su-30MKIs. But there was only one aerial engagement, this being between two PAF F-16s and two IAF MiG-21 Bisons.
The main PAF strike force comprised four F-16A/Bs each armed with two DENEL-supplied Raptor TV-guided gliding PGMs, while the remaining four F-16A/Bs and four JF-17s were tasked with the protection of the strike package while remaining in a rear area over PoK. The composition of the strike package is indicative of the fact that neither the JF-17 nor the Mirage-IIIEAs are as yet able to launch standoff PGMs.
The following targets were selected by the PAF for the air-strikes: Bhimber Gali (elevation of 5,479 feet), Krishna Ghati (Nangi Tekri) at a height of 4,665 feet, Potha at an elevation of 4,073 feet, and an ammunition point in Narian (belonging to the 25 Infantry Division of the Indian Army) at an elevation of 2,000 feet.
On February 27 at 9:58am the four F-16s ingressed into Indian airspace to a depth of 7km through the Bhimber Gali, Naushara/Sunderbani and Rajouri/Lam/Kalal sectors in Jammu. However, all the ordnance dropped by these MRCAs exploded in uninhabited areas. Within two minutes, however, the PAF strike package was confronted by two MiG-21 Bisons, two upgraded Mirage 2000INs and four Su-30MKIs.
The four PAF F-16s were resorting to terrain-masking by flying parallel to the western portion of the Pir Panjal Range and the Trikuta Range.
However, the moment they gained altitude for crossing into the areas east of these Ranges and approached their designated targets in Jammu at altitudes varying from 300 feet to 500 feet, they were detected by the IAF’s medium-power radars and accompanying radar finger-printing systems by 10.25am, which in turn vectored three airborne MiG-21 Bisons (all armed with R-73E SRAAMs) towards their respective intercept courses.
The Su-30MKIs were kept on standby to engage those PAF F-16s that were still orbiting over PoK airspace further to the west. It must be noted here that for close combat over mountainous terrain, the defender always has the upper hand if heat-seeking SRAAMs are used against the fleeing low-flying hostile targets, since active Ku-band terminal seekers of BVRAAMs always suffer from ground-clutter phenomena over such terrain and are therefore next-to-useless in such situations.
While cruising at 15,000 feet altitude, the MiG-21 Bison flown by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman engaged the PAF F-16 that had approached the Indian Army’s ammunition depot at Narian and was exiting that location at an altitude of 9,000 feet. While the MiG-21 Bison made a shallow dive to get within R-73E firing range of the F-16, the latter’s pilot was alerted about the impending attack and so he took an evasive measure by going into a steep climb to about 26,000 feet. By this time Wg Cdr Abhinandan had skillfully manoeuvred his MiG-21 Bison behind the fleeing F-16 and had positioned himself at a 60-degree angle of elevation below the F-16 for maximum impact. He then fired an R-73Em which effortlessly struck the rear fuselage of the F-16.
However, even as R-73E was closing on to its target, the wingman of the F-16 moved in from behind and fired an AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM from a distance of less than 12km, hitting the centre-fuselage of the MiG-21 Bison. A second AIM-120C-5 that was probably fired against  Wg Cdr Abhinandan’s wingman failed to hit its target and consequently it slammed into Mamankote Mallas village, Reasi, and caused an explosion that spread splinters and missile parts within a radius of 100 metres. The entire aerial engagement ended at around 10:45am.
While one MiG-21 Bison piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman successfully engaged and shot down a tandem-seat F-16 (B or D variant) with one R-73E IIR-guided missile within a 90-second period, this very MiG-21 Bison was shot down by one AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM missile fired by another F-16. Another AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM was unsuccessfully fired toward the second MiG-21 Bison, and this missile eventually harmlessly landed inside Indian territory.
The downed PAF F-16 was shot down over the Jhangar area of Jammu & Kashmir, but its wreckage fell in Khuiratta inside PoK, opposite the Lam Valley. The MiG-21 Bison, on the other hand, went down near Horra’n village, located 7km west of the LoC in PoK’s  Bhimber district. The entire aerial engagement ended at around 10:45am.
There are only two plausible reasons why the PAF preferred to use BVRAAMs instead of SRAAMs for this aerial engagement: 1) The PAF was unsure whether or not the IAF’s Su-30MKIs equipped with IRST sensors would join the battle (if they were to, then they would have easily had the upper hand since they can cruise at higher altitudes from where the R-73E SRAAM/Sura-1 HMDS combination can be used with devastating effect); 2) The PAF, devoid of all-aspect SRAAMs that can be guided wide off-boresight by the Joint Helmet-Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS), was extremely vary of initiating within-visual-range engagements due to the guaranteed and combat-proven lethality and superior engagement envelope of the R-73E SRAAM/Sura-1 HMDS combination found in the MiG-21 Bison and Su-30MKI.
The only plausible reason why all other IAF MRCAs airborne in that area were directed NOT TO engage those AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM-armed PAF F-16s orbiting over PoK was because the latter was maintaining a 10km distance from the LoC (as per the 1989 bilateral agreement on confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan). In retrospect, this appears to be a wrong interpretation of the 1989 bilateral agreement, which in turn led to a flawed rules of engagement put in motion by the IAF.
When it comes to self-protection, the IAF adheres to the practice of one of every two airborne MRCAs (the lead aircraft and the wingman) being equipped with the EL/L-8222 jamming pod. Consequently, the aircraft not equipped with this pod must always be within the effective jamming envelope of the second aircraft carrying this pod. Hence, while the Su-30MKIs equipped with EL/L-8222 maintained formation and were thus protected from inbound AIM-120C-5 AMRAAMs (which have 70km max range), the two-unit MiG-21 Bison flight somehow broke-up, which in turn led to the MiG-21 Bison flown by Wg Cdr Abhinandan being left defenceless against any type of inbound BVRAAM.
Another plausible reason that explains the IAF’s reticence to engage the PAF’s large-sized strike package is the lack of tactical data-links (TDL) on-board the IAF’s fleet of combat aircraft and on the fleet of AEW & CS platforms, which prevents the latter from providing real-time airborne battle management cues to airborne IAF combat aircraft while operating inside contested/hostile airspace. TDLs come in two types: the L-band TDL for two-way line-of-sight communications; and a UHF-band SATCOM TDL, for which the IAF’s combat aircraft need to be equipped with SATCOM receivers.
Meanwhile, efforts have commenced on procuring 473 + 3,125 software-defined radios for achieving real-time connectivity between all IAF aircraft/helicopters and the Integrated Aerospace Command, Control & Communications System (IACCCS), especially via the GSAT-7A’s SATCOM transponders.
UAS Interceptions
At around 6am on February 26 near Nanghatad village in Abdasa taluka of Kutch district in Gujarat on, a Pakistan Navy-operated ScanEagle UAS was detected and shot down by an IAF-operated SpyDer-SR SHORADS as the UAS, suspected to have been launched from an area near Sir Creek, was approaching from the sea the IAF’s Naliya AFS, which is home to 12 FBSU’s 45 ‘Flying Daggers’ Sqn operating MiG-21 Bisons and 101 ‘Falcons’ Sqn flying MiG-21Ms. The Pakistan Navy had inducted into service the ScanEagles—built by Insitu, a Boeing subsidiary—on August 31, 2016.
The second UAS interception took place on March 4, 2019 at around 11am when a PAF-operated Falco UAS, which had taken off from Bahawalpur Airport, entered Indian airspace near the BSF’s Soorma and K K Tibba outposts at Anupgarh in Rajasthan’s Sri Ganganagar district.
There are two IAF air bases in this area, these being the Nal/Bikaner AFS housing 46 Wing’s 3 ‘Cobras’ Sqn with MiG-21 Bisons; and Jodhpur AFS housing 32 Wing’s 10 ‘Winged Daggers’ Sqn, 29 ‘Scorpions’ Sqn and 37 ‘Panthers’ Sqn with MiG-27UPG, 32 ‘Thunderbirds’ Sqn with MiG-21 Bisons and 31 ‘Lions’ Sqn with Su-30MKIs. The intruding Falco was shot down by a Su-30MKI with 30mm cannon-fire and debris of this UAS fell just inside Pakistan. The Falco UAS can fly at an altitude of 18,000 feet for 14 hours at a speed of 105nm per hour.
The only plausible reason why these UAS platforms were sent from Pakistan was to ascertain whether the IAF had conducted any preparations for undertaking a missile-strike (with ground-launched BrahMos-1 Block-3 missiles) against probable targets like the JeM’s headquarters at Bahawalpur, or the Karachi-based seafront villa owned by Dawood Ibrahim at D-13, Block-4, Karachi Development Authority, Scheme-5, Clifton.
(to be concluded) 

240 comments:

1 – 200 of 240   Newer›   Newest»
DAshu said...

Sukhois were there, and most of them successfully returned back !!! this is not good. I will expect our Sukhois to shoot at least 4 of their a/c down with a 1:1 ratio.

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,

I had asked this question in previous thread also, is there any way to confirm independently the F16 sshoot down.

Does America keep tabs on Pakistani F16s.

Thanks & Regards,

Hardik Thanki

AMIT BISWAS said...

Why PAF F 16 didn't employed IIR guided AIM 9X missile???And only AIM 120 C missile???
DID mig deployed any countermeasures against those AIM 120C??
I guess MiG 21 without any MAWS are just sitting ducks for PAF

Anonymous said...

What should be done to prove F16 crashed, to shut ISPR and their public up for good, given they don't even accept that Nawaz Sharif not India went to US in 1999?

Now i see their info wars and propaganda working very good, most western media houses like WP telgraph uk, economist, quoting their 2 mig21 figure and questioning the strike/damage/casualties.
Telegraph Uk even ran an article telling how Pakistani generals are the one more likely to stop a nuclear war than start one.

Why isn't our POV more prevelant and being quoted, just to sag opposing publics morale and whip up positive sentiments in readers abroad?

I am sure all the governments know, now more about changing public opinions really. What can be done to arrest it?

And what are the steps forward? Deescalation or escalation? And what will we extract from them?

Thanks

- VSJ

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

We may have made our point but I think and also what I saw on Twitter etc we lost war of perception. Modi tried to look cool by keep on attending Political rallies but it seems it backfired. Its famous say that there is no incentive for war in democracy it seems true. We lost 50 soldiers to Pakistan terror and yet many people of India thanking Imran Khan are satisfied with just our pilot coming back who in fact went in first place to defend against Pakistan aggression.

Regards,
Pawan

Prashant said...

Prasun that analysis looks very promising but still short to explain downing of IAF Helicopter with 4-6 casualties. My humble opinion is that other F-16 fired AIM at helicopter and that has happened much latter after F16-Mig engagement. This is because later in few minutes after Mig Crash, IAF helicopter were searching openly near border for our parachuted pilot for rescue and there PAF decided to bring down easy & slow IAF helicopter using AIM from within there Border. I was watching live TV at the time of engagement and the information flowing sequence corroborates the probable scene.

Also, I don't under why Indian SAMS didn't respond to Arial threat when IAF has admitted that PAF came almost 10 km inside LOC. Is it only fighter engagement that will protect us from any aerial threat?

Anmol Chaudhary said...

Hi Prasun,

What do you think was India's offering and / or warning to China ?

Holding off sales to Vietnam? our stand on Taiwan / SCS? Economic consequences ? CPEC ?

Regard
Anmol

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU & RAVI_N & VSJ: Have provided extra explanations above in layman’s terms to explain the plausible, since neither side seems interested in going into the details for extremely stupid reasons.

To RAVI_N: If the AMRAAM missile part was from Taiwan, then how come it ended up in Delhi in the hands of of the IAF’s Air Vice Marshal R G K Kapoor yesterday evening? Any plausible explanation?

To HARDIK THANKI: Such confirmation can come only from the US & the PAF. But for the PAF to admit the shooting down of the F-16 will also cause much demoralisation within the PAF since it will also confirm that the PAF has NOTHING to counter the lethal combination of the IAF’s R-73E SRAAM/Sura-1 HMDS.

To AMIT BISWAS: Does the PAF have AIM-9X Sidewinder SRAAMs? It has only AIM-9M-8/9s. MiG-21 Bison has only flare countermeasures dispensing pellets. Also, the MiG-21 Bison does not use EL:/L-8222 ASPJs on CAP missions. Had the mission been an offensive air superiority sweep, then the Bison would have had this ASPJ mounted underwing & would have thus been protected from fire-n-forget BVRAAMs. This only shows how important internally-mounted self-protection jammers & MAWS sensors are when entering the arena of dissimilar air combat. In my view, therefore, the IAF made a terrible mistake in not opting for a MAWS fitment & internal ASPJ fitment back in 2000 when such hardware was available from Italy & South Africa. Just 3 years later in 2003 Malaysia specified such hardware for its Su-30MKMs!

To PRASHANT: Have added to the explanations above, which should clear a lot of doubts/questions now being raised. How can SAMs enter the fray when the airspace above is filled with 24 combat aircraft from both opposing sides?

To ANMOL CHAUDHARY: Will dwell upon that as well as on many other factors that went into the planning of the IAF airstrike on February 26.

Millard Keyes said...

In all this, India is the one came out losing its face. India suffered the most casualties and instead of a befitting response suffered the loss of an aircraft and a pilot captive. Can any country even manage to reach so close to the borders of Israel or US or even China? It just seems the IAF lacks adequate radar and data link systems and is relying on vintage dog fight scenarios. With the size and capability of India, PAF should not even dare to stage a copy cat adventure. Where are the pollies who should be presenting Pakistan to the UN with its own admission: Pak ambassador to the US says the US did not condemn Indian attack on Balakot camp. So he openly admits he was aware of the Balakot camp and so dumb that he wants the US to condemn India for attacking a terrorist site? This also shows Pakistan supports terrorists or else why would they retaliate an attack on terror campsite. The actions by PAK, the verbal confessions and admissions should be enough to take dramatic political actions to defang that rogue nation. Instead Pakistan is getting bolder knowing full well it can mount more and more deadly attacks through its proxies and will only gtet a slap on the wrist. With 1.25 billion people India should have no parity with Pakistan whereas it appears militarily Pakistan is just a body length behind India!

Rajdeep said...

Hi Prasun,

Thanks for the plausible explantions. A few questions.
1) Since you said the final bombing run on Jabba top took place serially: Would aircraft 2s Litening have recorded aircraft 1s stike and similarly 3 of 2s? Is the govt. not releasing this to benefit later electorally?

2) As you said the IAF aircrafts generally did not engage the PAF strike package, did the 2 Mig-21s or 1 Mig-21 act on its own?

3) Did the LGBs land on India territory? And were some targets being lased for the LGBs?

thanks,
Rajdeep

DAshu said...

No TDL on-board the IAF’s fleet of combat aircraft and on the fleet of AEW & CS platforms, which prevents the latter from providing real-time airborne battle management cues to airborne IAF combat aircraft while operating inside contested/hostile airspace. -- what is the purpose of AEW & CS platforms then? is it like AEW & CS platforms will relay info to the ground and then the same would be relayed to combat A/C from the ground?
I still believe sukhois should have engaged and shoot them down. No wonder they are mocking IAF.
Btw what is that stupid reason which is stopping India going into the details, if I may ask?

rad said...


hi prasun
my blood is boiling of the fact that we dont have a data link to the fighters?? People are crazy. we spend billions on awacs and fighters do and not provide them with a link?.worth a few thousand dollars? DO pak f-16 and jf-17 have links ??
what ever happened to the indian made datata links that you have shown

what about the link that israel offered free of cost ? at least we could have got that for the time being until these laggards drdo made the stuff?

who is responsible for this irresponsible omission?

the whole episode seems to be a comedy of errors on both sides.

at least there is one lesson learnt by pak, never tangle with the IAF in a dog fight due to SURA HMTDS and r-73 combo!! it would be really demoralizing for pak f-16 jocks.And their chest thumping pretending to be the best pilots.

will US take action on pak for using amraams on a offensive mode outside their borders??
do we have to wait for some idiot to take a decision on Acquiring maws or get it in an emergency mode and fit it . AS Malaysia has already integrated it , it would be faster.

I pray that the arse holes involved wouldnt float a tender to get the L1 . I shudder to think what what would have happened if an amraam downed a su-30 due to lack of MAWS!
pse confirm if the IR guided R-27 has a IIR seeker or a normal one ? do they have a data link ?The su-30 could have taken out the f-16 in a silent mode while still inside Indian border?correct?


AMIT BISWAS said...

Thanks for your response.
That means PAF didn't employed IIR guide AIM 9 instead went for radar guided BVRAAM for countering IAF fighters. What could be the logic?? Also does any PAF fighter has MAWS??

Also in the absence of external ASPJ and MAWS even sukhoi and mirage are sitting ducks with their pilot not aware of missile launch against them....is this what air force calls modernisation... same situation as in kargil being repeated?? For super sukhoi upgrade I hope sukhoi get MAWS and internal ASPJ... DOES MiG 29 UPG has MAWS??

Gaurav said...

Hi Prasun..if that is true that there are no data links?then big issue since I guess F16 have data links.other thing we have seen that the sukhoi is highly agile aircraft..then why it was not used to retaliate the same day?THe videos emerging now seems that F16s were flying low..so can the sukhoi engage them at low altitude?

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

(1) IAF said today that Pakistan LGB dropped by Pakistani jets landed on Indian Army military installations. But there were no casualties. is it because the LGBs didn't go off ?

(2) Why didn't the IAF use SAMs like the Akash, Spyder to target the hostile Pakistani jets?

(3) Mig 21's of the IAF are supposed to have ELTA's on board jammer. Why couldn't Wing Commander Abhinandan's Mig jam the incoming AIM 120?

Thank You,
VIKRAM

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
Thank you for your reply.
You didn't answer to my second question. Will WC Abhinandan fly again? If yes, then which aircraft? I heard that Nachiketa never flew any fighter planes after 1999.
https://english.manoramaonline.com/news/nation/2019/02/28/pak-troops-kargil-war-hero-nachiketa-returned-8-days.html

Meanwhile, in US, this guy say, IAF strike on Balakot didn't cause significance damage. https://twitter.com/Michael1Sheldon/status/1101272433963741185.
I am waiting for IAF's evidence.

Meanwhile, in US, many of the left wing media personalities praised for Imran Khan for being a peacenik whereas compared PM Modi as a warmonger. These are the guys who control the media and they can manipulate the people. How to counter them?

Thanks in adv
Ravi_N

sbm said...

Hi Prasun,
What you've done is excellent in explaining what happened and how. Thank you.

This site claims no damage was done based on some kind of image analysis:
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/were-indias-airstrikes-in-pakistan-a-strategy-for-public-approval/

Now, AFAIK, nobody has gone to the top of the hill yet. I would appreciate your thoughts on this.

So far, you have been spot on. I am a little curious about the debris that Iyer-Mitra and others say is from the MiG fuselage and some Indians say no - from F-16. Debate seems fluid.

Any clarity is most appreciated. Thanks in advance.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: So, to sum up your thoughts & keep it short, what it all boils down to is that Pakistan has been punching way above its weight, while the exact opposite holds true for India. That should do it.

To SIDHARTH: If he was a lone ranger, then how come his wingman saw him ejecting? There are manu conspiracy theories floating around, including these bizarre but hilarious ones from Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GOHTN8Ug7c
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jFHtKD7qzo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPzGsuDyIc8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpCtUj_LZDo

To RAFALE MRCA: 1) The videography will be released by the IAF at an appropriate time to the public. What has this got to do with electoral exploitation when Pakistan has already admitted to the IAF airstrike? 2) No. It can well be that in such a crowded airspace & without high-capacity airborne battle management, VHF/UHF radio comms traffic might have gotten saturated, which led to the 2 MiG-21 Bisons not being able to receive the battle commands or instructions from the ground-based tactical air controller. In any case, the breaching of the LoC should not be an issue at all for the IAF once the adversary has committed aggression & in any case, India’s official stance anyway is that PoK too is an integral part of India & hence in such situations, the distinction between J & K airspace & PoK airspace does not hold any ground.

To DASHU: Yes, it is exactly like that now. Ground stations receive the situational awareness pictures from AEW & CS platforms & if you go back to the images of the EMB-145I ‘Netra’ brochure I had uploaded years ago, you will see such ground receiving stations in the brochure. In my view India has come a sorry second in the information warfare domain because virtually all officials in the PMO are control freaks who strongly practice micro-management.

To RAD: Not just the TDLs, but have you stopped to consider whether or not the IAF has been granted airspace for the 10 aerial refuelling corridors that it had asked for from the DGCA? You will be shocked once the answers start coming out. R-27s are no longer in service with the IAF.

To AMIT BISWAS: The PAF’s F-16s & JF-17s have MAWS. The PAF dreads the prospect of being at the receiving end of the R-73E/Sura-1/IRST sensor combination & hence prefers to engage the IAF’s combat aircraft with BVRAAMs & avoid within-visual-range intercepts at all costs. The first MRCA-type to sport MAWS in the IAF will be the Rafale.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: There’s no unconditional de-escalation by both sides due to international opinion & from now on the battles will be fought only in the diplomatic arena until the next terror-strike occurs, rest assured.

To JYOTI SEN: Of course.

To PRITAM SARKAR: That’s because he was informed by the PA that three parachutes had beeb spotted in the skies above PoK.

To VED: Because there were no MiG-29s in that area on February 27. Only Su-30MKIs, Mirage 2000Ins & MiG-21 Bisons were airborne at that time.

To GAURAV: The PAF’s F-16s don’t have data-links reqd for communicating directly with AEW & CS platforms. Why should the Su-30MKI descend to lower altitudes when it can just fire R-73Es towards low-flying targets? In air combat, loiw-altitude does not mean terrain-hugging altitude.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) It is because the PAF did not want to actually destroy the targets, as explained in the February 27 press conference of the ISPR’s DG. 2) Do SAMs have IFF transponders on them for distinguishing between friendly & hostile aircraft? If not, then how can anyone guarantee that such SAMs fired into a crowded airspace will hit their intended targets without fail? 3) Only for offensive air superiority sweep missions, and not when undertaking CAP missions.

To MANU SINGH: 1) Yes. 2) Yes.

To RAVI_N: Yes he will continue flying the MiG-21 Bison.

To KAPIL: Such artillery firefights were of far greater intensity between 1996 & pre-Kargil 1999. No one went to war then. So why should they now?

To SBM: VMT. Such imagery is sometimes too good to be true, such as the perfect circles of the bomb explosion sites when in fact such locations are on the slopes of the hillside. So how they can be seen as near-circles boggles my mind. And as for debunking the debunkers like AIM, common-sense always offers the best solution . The F-16 went down in Khuiratta while the MiG-21 Bisaon went down near Horra’n village, a flat piece of land. So all you have to do is compare the image showing the destroyed part of the rear bottom fuselageof the F-16 taken at 10.47am, with this image of Khuiratta that I had uploaded last January:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-msbgjqWUKTA/XDKEIraUniI/AAAAAAAAQhY/IrqyMVwuhxMKVrHdZ4fJoPIAcGFvVFXAgCLcBGAs/s1600/Khuiratta.jpg

In both images, one can very clearly see the same ridgelines surrounding the Lam Valley. That should put an end to the debate once & for all. As for the IAF airstrike, the mere fact that it has been acknowledged by Pakistan itself along with international support for India’s right to self-defence is by itself a huge achievement.

sbm said...

Agree with you entirely.

However, based on what you've seen and know - and with this satellite imagery purportedly showing a failure to hit targets - https://thewire.in/security/balakot-airstrikes-india-pakistan-satellite-images?fbclid=IwAR2XyTwaaVGGG0dfthZy91GqLzX4nXTblrKOx0gl7o6zo2P6SY7ELUcx5yc

Were any targets neutralized?

My view is that the satellite photo is highly inconclusive but I am no expert.

DAshu said...

khaya piya kuch nahi glass toda barana. So it’s indeed pak who gave the face saving exit to India from this misadventures. Great, but it’s good to accept the reality and work on the shortcomings like TDL and into warefare tactics to name a few

PK said...

Hello prasun da

That means even the upgraded Mig29,jaguar and mirage don't have the MAWS sensors and internal jammers.if it is so than its a very grim situation.

Anonymous said...

Pakistani F-16 pilot was mistaken to be an Indian, lynched by his own: Report

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2019/mar/01/pakistani-f-16-pilot-was-mistaken-to-be-an-indian-lynched-by-his-own-report-1945428.html

SOUBHAGYA said...

Dear Prasun,

1. What will be impact on Pakistan for boycotting OIC meeting?
2. If you have come across any image of IAF strike on JeM camp in Balakot, do you think that the damage is approx. 300 terrorists?
3. If the ill fated F-16 had MAWS, then why did it become the sitting duck for MiG-21?
4. In your 2011 thread you had mentioned that Sukhoi - 30 MKI are going to be fitted with MAWS. Now you are telling that Rafale will be the first aircraft of IAF to be fitted with MAWS? That means India is going at snail's pace to equip the Sukhoi aircraft.
5. Then how are the IAF's fighter crafts are going to the air for fight without MAWS knowing that they are going to be down!!!

I am one tenth of your knowledge....still I claim that had I been in power, then I wouldn't have left Tejas or other fighter aircrafts being a sitting duck as I have commonsense. I don't know how the hell this country is being managed. I think what you say is very elementary. If you stick to law of physics and ethics of work, you can overcome such buffoon attitude. Hope you agree.

Unknown said...

Sir one more question on credabcredi and patriotism in DRDO they such a liar shameless organisation who in 70 year of our indipenindep does not know our soldiers requirements such as our armed forces dying massive number in Kashmir nakshal areas north eastern they does not how to protect them every we import helmet guns night device etc.they just say we does not have infrastructure private player are not participate government never look at us sir they are shameless irgorganisat they are the country only defence establishment how the name of the god they say such things.they observing our armed forces everyday but they work like snails why sir.drdo are the organisation who will blame for our iaf crashes mig shot down because look at every defence show these shameless people put product at show which they put 10-12 years back.sir can people in theses organisation are not capable or they just don't work like our other government organisations.whats your veiw.sir I read your every coloumn what I found (about DRDO) they either import or produce a product through licensed.sorry to say sir you look at news about DRDO you just only find out about in news is Bhartiya (jobs requirements) not a single research news new product making news nothing their news only update on months.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Overhead recce satellites with SAR have already taken imagery, which will be displayed later & privately-owned satellites with SAR & optronic sensors too will surface soon with the evidence that you now seek. Meanwhile, here are some more supporting reports:

https://www.firstpost.com/india/eyewitnesses-say-indian-air-strike-on-balakot-killed-dozens-of-terrorists-including-former-isi-agents-6182671.html

https://www.firstpost.com/india/jem-chief-masood-azhars-brother-confirms-iaf-strikes-on-balakot-terror-camp-slams-imran-khan-for-surrendering-6184441.html

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/radar-imagery-confirms-4-buildings-in-jaish-madrasa-were-hit-official-5607623/ (this news-reporter has gotten totally confused between bombs & PGMs)

https://www.firstpost.com/india/pilot-of-downed-pakistan-air-force-f-16-shahaz-ud-din-lynched-by-nowshera-mob-that-mistook-him-for-indian-airman-6180091.html

To AMIT BISWAS: Maybe the F-16 was unable to keep the target illuminated for the reqd timeframe & thus the AIM-120C-5 was unable to get the requisite mid-course update cues.

To SOUBHAGYA: 1) Let it keep licking its wounds. 2) I don’t know from where the figure of 300 has cropped up. Perhaps you can ask the Indian ‘Warrior TV Channels’ who have quoted this figure for substantiation. So far, what has been confirmed from Pakistan & the BBC is that on February 27, 60 beds were reserved at the Rawalpindi General Hospital (Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Hospital) for attending to the wounded JeM casualties & that these 60 beds were in a quarantined area of the hospital. 3) Because the F-16 pilot did not have enough time to either take evasive measures or activate his flare countermeasures dispenser. 4) I had also stated that the Super Su-30MKI project will commence only by this year’s end. You seem to be overlooking this factoid, as well as the first IAF Rafale’s delivery this September. 5) That question must be put to the Indian MoD & IAF. There cannot be any miraculous escape during dissimilar air combat. You may recall that a similar incident had taken place in mid-1999 when a Mi-17 devoid of any chaff/flare dispensers was tasked with the straffing of the PA’s Sangars at a high altitude & we all know what happened next. But such matters are never brought by the so-called ‘patrakaars’ in either the print media or the warrior TV channels, & worst of all such questions are not even asked by any Indian MP in Parliament, presumably because thay only like to engage in fruitless cockfights against one another. So there you have it!

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
Audio of a public meeting of yesterday speech by Maulana Amaar younger brother of Massod Azhar says clearly that Indian planes "did not hit ISI, or the military, it hit our markaz center for our brothers training for Jihad against India. We have to take revenge for that....etc etc". These beings shown on News18 and in Times of India.

So it appears it really hit them where it hurts.

The other thing that comes to my mind is the horrifying way that Pakistan is trying to keep one of its air-warriors death in action under wraps. It must be a real demoralizing thought for all other flyers in PAF when they would know that one of their bravest fell from the sky and no one is there to hail his bravery!!!

An utter shame. And I say this coming form a family of 3 generation IAF pilots.

Kane

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KANE: You missed out the most interesting part: “There was a Niazi who gave away half the land and 90,000 soldiers and now today's Niazi (Imran) has surrendered before the enemy and by ensuring the return of Indian pilot has lost the battle,” Ammar purportedly said on the tape.

To HARSH: I had already explained it with slides here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2019/02/bvraams-lraams-powered-by-sfdr.html

Gopu said...

Hi Prasun,

https://i.redd.it/e12kz4jlbnj21.png

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/03/01/world/asia/01reuters-india-kashmir-pakistan-environment.html

These are the first reports I read of the India-Pak air "skirmishes". Clearly, India comes off as aloof and on the weaker ground.

I'm honestly astonished that the BJP is trying to spin their antics as a victory/chest thumping exercise. These are the same nitwits that haven't been able to staff a dedicated, permanent DM for the last five fucking years!

After demonetization and now this retarded fiasco, I really don't think that anyone here who actually cares for India's defense should re-elect these fools. While the BJP can doctor and manipulate media soundbites, it's all thumb twiddling when in office!

I lost all respect for this government when these self-proclaimed "god-men" rejected the entire NRI community, as if these cow-piss drinking idiots think they can match NRIs with distinguished resumes and years in the industry.

Unrelated, is the IAF going to stick with Mig Bisons, until the MoD caves into buying the "desi" Falcon package from LM? After a piecemeal order for Rafales, another piecemeal order of F16? Perhaps, the IAF top brass think procurement is like buying a fancy "thali", with a little bit of biryani, pappads, dal, pickles, chapathi, sambar...

buddha said...

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/day-after-sushma-swaraj-speech-islamic-nations-oic-slam-india-on-kashmir-2001785
Day after Sushma Swaraj's speech, Islamic nations slam India on Kashmir.

In its first reaction, India said, "reaffirm Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India”
why OIC is taking their traditional outlook regarding kashmir...
what does these arial atrike and subsequent battle change strategy and acquisition of IAF.Does F21 will be in IAF after F16 down by Mig21 Bison
IF NDA come to power will next tranche of Rafale be ordered off the shelve.
will Ghatak assalt rifle be ordered in bulk number in recent motns. and what other small arms of Indian origin will get chance of being manufactured in large numbers.
Hope after these CRPF and other central force get much needed boast in their requirement and training for fighting high risk areas
does recent all out crack down in kashmir yeild gd result.

Prashant said...

This operation has broken Indian trust in Sukhoi's. Prasun you also talked about waiting for Super Sukhoi's upgrade. Does this means we have been beating chest unnecessary for so many years on their superiority. Air Marshal should be questioned now for this poor Cap mission planning when we were 100% expecting PAF aggressive retribution. Was no body guiding IAF from WAR room as how to engage with change scenario in real time. Ohh!! Sukhoi's Pilot choose not to even engage even after realizing that PAF f16 were engaging with Migs. We will have to ask such tuff questions so that we are better prepared next time.
Also, every time our Airforce is pulled in, first thing they do is getting 1 or 2 men projected into PAK airspace. This happened in Kargil and now again. This like giving our neck in Pakistan hands during crucial phase. This change the entire dynamics of our war which was against terrorist that changed to bringing back our men save and alive. Even Today PM Modi was also taking about Rafale as if they were here, then it would have been a different outcome. Seems trust is low in IAF on Sukhoi's. Nodoubt, Sukhoi's will have to prove themselves now.

Seeker said...

Prasun sir,

1) In a recent video of a defence expo in south east Asia the drdo representative for Varunastra said that the torpedo had a range of only 10km, instead of 40km. Can you please confirm the range?

2) Will the upcoming brahmos 2 be a downgraded zircon or equal to it in capability or modified in some way?

3) Is the current brahmos 1 worse or equal to or better than the Russian p800 oniks?

4) Does the anti ship brahmos have ECCM to counter modern ECM that modern ships possess?

5) What is the decommissioning time table for our current kilo and type 209 boats?

6) Will the IAF without maws be able to prevail over the PAF? (the recent skirmish not withstanding)

7) A recently published document predicted that the PLAN will induct about 3 type 52d destroyers and 2 type 55 Destroyers ANNUALLY leading to a Fleet of about 55 type 52d/e Destroyers and 25 type 55 Destroyers by 2030. Do you belive these numbers are accurate or overstated?

8) How would you rate a type 55 destroyer vs a flight 2 burke destroyer of the USN?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Have uploaded new data in the narrative above & will explain the air combat tactics of February 27 later tonight, & also why rumours of the Spice-2000 PGM's employment were deliberately leaked to the 'desi patrakaars' as part of an information warfare campaign.

DAshu said...

Thank you, sir. 1st 2 paras are very very assuring and heartening in this current situation.

Rohan said...

Hi Prasun ,

Need your few insights.

1.What was the strategic objective of Pakistan for Pulwama attack , knowing very well that Modi will definitely retaliate?
2.Do you think that the Feb 27 PAF raid is loss of face for IAF ?
3.The lack of involvement of Su-30mkis and Mig-29s is perplexing. Did IAF purposely held back Su-MKIs?
4.If required , do you think our IN would have been able to successfully do a blockade ?

Prranshu Yadav said...

Prasunji, personally I think such limited fights are actually good for the military, as they don't do much damage but show us our weaknesses so we can iron them out. Its great that efforts to improve radio connectivity and SATCOM have already begun. Anyways, here's something that's been bugging me- I remember you saying that prahaar will be nuclear tipped. But in context of this whole episode, I see good logic in developing a conventionally armed version as well. Why can't a conventionally armed prahaar system be used to target terrorist camps across LOC and IB? The time and resources required to do that would be just a fraction of those required to plan and execute an airstrike mission like the one just carried out, not to mention less risk in terms of lives of pilots and expensive hardware. It would also be seen as less provocative and eneble us to carry out cross border strikes more frequently. With a range of 150 km and 10 m CEP, prahaar could have easily hit the camp in balakot. And damage assessment could be done by satellite imagery.

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

Eagerly waiting to hear your take on why IAF misinform on SPICE 2000 bombs also please answer my queries as follows:

1. Plz elaborate how see things likely to unfold from here. Is there chance of all out war on LoC in coming Autumn season.
2. What is your assessment of stock of ammunition and platforms for decisive victory on LOC.'
3. Did India agreed for not responding to PAF failed ground strike because of captured pilot or there is some other pressure playing part.

Regards,

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,
Your approach over the years have been very much bi-partisan so far as the political angle of defence issues involved. You have not blinked from castigating the governments and "netas" in power at a given time for their lack of understanding of defence issues, world affairs; lack of leadership and resolve; the attitude of punching way below the capacity.

But this last few weeks since Pulwama happened (and also after Uri) I must admit that the current leadership has sown some remarkable qualities and arwe worthy of praise:

In decisive leadership:
> Breaking the mould of a soft power it has taken decisions that coudl have had serious negetive ramifications if anything had gone wrong, as is normal in such operatios
> Not blicking for even a short while and taking the decision, that could have gone very much "south"
> The entire cabinet working very much in a coordinated manner, that even the most acute analysts were buffled what would be the reaction(you and a few others were exception rather than the rule)
> The correographed action almost like a perfect ballet performance all round a) diplomatic b)operational c) all on the same page on massaging d) amazingly low on jingoism (a regional leader like motor-mouth Yedurappa being the exception) e) fantastic coordination with the super-powers, UN, Russian-China-India meet.

I must say thuis bunch of Neta's have shown remarkable ability, descipline and staying-on-the-massage this time and are worthy of praise... notwithstanding their charecteristic flaws in general.

Would you agree?

Kane

Anonymous said...

Excellent detailed write up sir. Couple of questions:

What were the SU-30MKIs and Mirages doing whilst Mig-21 where taking on the F-16?

Is it true that they shot down an SU-30MKI?

Rohit

sbm said...

Dear Prasun, Many, many, many thanks for this article. It is truly amazing.

One thing I'd like to know.. what is the status of the R-77 in IAF service? Working? Number in stock (or purchased) and capability vs the AIM-120-C5.

Any guidance would be appreciated.

Thanks again

Vivek said...

Prasun da,
What was the purpose of joint armed forces press conference 3 days back, what was the point in saying that our military installation were targeted if we were not to retaliate, shouldn't it have been viewed as an act of war and accordingly dealt with
Why did Modi buckle under pressure, I thought it was due to international pressure but your first para now suggests that other powers would be happy to see India act, then why did Modi stop, was it because he believes enough has been done to win him elections
Request your views pl
Thanks

dilbert said...

@sbm : Good to see you back here from time to time.

@prasun: Thanks a million for the details of the IAF raid/planning. It is particularly interesting / encouraging to me that international leaders/diplomats told India, in effect, to stop being a wimpy victim and start fighting back. Sure, military action carries inherent risks, but every decision carries potential risks. Just passively taking blows without fighting back also carries risks. At the end of the day, it is better to stand on your feet and fight and risk dying than to die on your knees begging for mercy.

But this last few weeks since Pulwama happened (and also after Uri) I must admit that the current leadership has sown some remarkable qualities and arwe worthy of praise

@Kane, Thanks for introducing a note of sanity and good sense to the discussion here. From all the bitching / moaning / whining coming from some other commentators, it is easy to see why Indians have the reputation of cowards/incompetents on the international stage. These chest-thumping bullshit-artists are always screaming for war, more war, muh-tod-jawab to Pakistan etc., and yet when India actually does something militarily and encounters some slight temporary setback, they jerk around like headless chickens complaining about Modi, complaining about the IAF, complaining about Sukhoi, etc. With "friends" like these, who needs enemies?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Have updated the explanations above with new slides that provide much more clarity on the conduct of the air-strikes. Apparently, a very highly level of deception & a multi-directional attack profile was mounted—all of which are corroborated by the eye-witness accounts as relayed to BBC. Will upload the air combat explanation later today that will make matters much more clear. There’s nothing wrong with R-77s, but the RoE needs introspection. Here are 2 interesting eye-witness accounts of what happened to a PAF F-16:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci2iwpeSC_Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMPn7w3t6KI

To ROHIT & HARSH: So let them share the images of these 2 downed aircraft with the whole world. What’s holding the ISPR back? The Su-30MKIs were nowhere near Nowshera, but were at their designated CAP locations near the Chhamb-Sialkot sector while the Mirage-2000s were near Pathankot & there were a total of six MiG-21 Bisons airborne on CAP in the Sundarbani-Rajouri sector.

To VARUN: The IAF has just got a new AOC-in-C of its Western Command & as part of an inflection point, ann Rules of Engagement are now being revisited.

To PAUL: No, what was used was the Spice-2000 about which I have explained everything above a short while ago.

To MANU SINGH & UNKNOWN/KUNAL: Here is some evidence:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ci2iwpeSC_Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMPn7w3t6KI

The ultimate evidence will come from the US, rest assured. Perhaps those ‘desi patrakaars’ on Lockheed Martin’s payroll can try their luck to get some inputs from the F-16’s manufacturer.

To ASD: Who cares? Pakistan can produce a thousand such entities in a short span of time. For a national security state, individuals don’t matter at all since they are all dispensable.

To KANE: LoLz! On the contrary, the present-day political leadership is being far too busy making political capital out of the military engagements, thereby engaging in GUTTER POLITIKING. No wonder there are growing no of statements now emerging worldwide that the BJP only wanted to create a localised & short military incident for electoral gains. I never expected this & was hoping that India's PM would be prime ministerial for at least another another month & refrain from fracturing national political unity. But it seems this is too much to expect. And in yesterday's Cabinet Committee of Security meeting, where was the Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee? Can you spot him anywhere here:

Meets https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB8jyDtlAqM

And despite all hot-air blown about cancellation of Pakistan's MFN status & 200% tariff impositions, it seems cross-LoC is carrying on as usual:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVvMbe5nljQ

Do you really expect such 'netas' to have above-average IQ-levels? Please! As I had explained above, the Balakot air-strikes took place only because of very hard nudgings coming from the 4 superpowers.

And finally, we now know that the OFB’s Korwa Factory will licence-build 750,000 AK-203s for the CAPFs & Rashtriya Rifles, & not for the regular infantry of the IA.

To PAWAN: Have uploaded the portion dealing with Spice-2000 & will answer the rest of your queries in following uploads in this very thread.

sbm said...

Prasun, Thank you! Excellent additions! But how many R-77s are left in stock and when did we last get any? How do they compare to AMRAAM? ROE clearly needed revising.

Thank you for any answers.

sbm said...

Prasun, this lady, based on the satellite data, is saying the strikes failed and the IAF is lying for the politicians. Now I know her - pathological Modi hater - but fundamentally a decent researcher.

What can we say right now based on the images as well as the satellite imagery?

Also, what is it with Indians that they tolerate abuse from these foreigners but worship them still?

Unknown said...

@prasoon could you share some proof on how the big 4 countries kicked indias ass to react strongly after the pulwama attack. This will help. In my understanding every country has to wipe it's own ass. Nobody will do it for you. The initiative has to be from India. And if this initiative is not taken, who gives a damn. After 26/11 no initiative was taken and none of the 4 powers bothered.

Cheers

Rahul

sbm said...

Totally unrelated question - does the IAF Su-30MKI do ORP/QRA ops? Does its avionics take 30min to spool up? Or much less?

Kunal Jadhav said...

Hello Prasun,

1) Now that AK203 will manufactured in Amethi to replace army's INSAS rifles, can we assume that OFB trichy assault rifle, DRDO Excalibur Assault Rifles are selved.

2) What is the status of Vidhwasnak ?

3) Why are we still ordering foreign origin asssult rifles ?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Russia-origin AAMs are procured once every 7 years. More than 2,500 R-77s are still in-stock. Comparisons are favourable, since (as I had explained earlier), max range & other such parameters don't matter in BVR air combat situations where airborne battle management of both the attacker & defender is carried out from the ground by GCI controlleres.

To BUDDHA & KAUSTAV: An excellent riposte to the crazy Pakistani FM who excels in waffling drivel (like inviting UNMOGIP to visit Balakot, as if the UNSC has authorised UNMOGIP to exceed its mandate & step out of both J & K and PoK!):

https://twitter.com/imtiazwaziri/status/1102105820601466881

https://twitter.com/MJibranNasir/status/1095281868486914048

Imagine nominating for the Nobel Prize someone who has not yet even expressed any remorse or sadness for any act of terrorism that has been carried out so far in India by Pakistan-based state-sponsored actoprs! If he wants evidence, then I suggest he instructs his High Commission in Delhi to seek consular access to these:

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/four-jaish-militants-nabbed-between-2014-17-were-trained-at-balakot-5609415/

blackurrant said...

Hi Prasun,

The image on the right seems to be captured during the construction phase of the camp. If I have identified correctly, there are small mounds of sand and other construction material. Also, the boundary wall is missing in the image on the right.

Awaiting your inputs

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

The IAF Chief G. S. Dhanoa just put all speculation to rest. The media can split hair or optics. Excellent Crisp Interview and more or less the same professional line you have adopted :-
1. Why not use the Bison. It is an aircraft in the inventory of the IAF to be used. He further explained at the end, that for planned operations, Mig21 Bison was not used. But when it comes to defending our airspace and area, whatever is available shall be used.
2. The IAF Chief said that he would not comment as these are on going operations.
3. It is the job of the IAF to hit targets which they have verifiably hit, and not to count fatalities. As the enemy PAF responded, it is evident that the strike was successful in it's objective of striking selected targets.
4. The other important thing, he says the IAF needs to get it's act together with reference to the MI-17 Copter crash in Budgam and the mid-air collision with subsequent loss of 2 Surya Kiran Team Hawk Aircraft. As for the rest, as a Defence professiional, he stayed out of politics, refused to comment on PM's statement and gave a road map of upcoming acquisitions & upgrades.
5. Ofcourse, the IAF is happy that our pilot is back. Wg.Cdr. Abh Varthaman shot down the F-16 and he shall return to duty subject to being certified fit as he has injury to spine, (odema) and other wrist & hand injury for which he is undergoing treatment.

Buddha said...

https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/india-russia-to-ink-3-billion-nuclear-submarine-deal-this-week/amp_articleshow/68248638.cms
Sir is it too much money for a leader nuclear submarine with restricted conventional capacity?
This amount of money could have served to build SSN fleet
With AK 203 CAPF standard rifle issue seemed to be solved ..
Can we expect standard riffle for army soon be solved with ghatak assault rifle
Procurement for 22 Sea gurdian and 55 Harop seem to be solved by next govt...Or we can expect they may sign in the last leg of their tenure.

In todayst interview air chief does not mention additional 18 sumki or 21 refurbished mig 29 procurement..
What appears next war should be well led by IAF and supported by Army and Navy. So does govt will give more focus on capacity building of IAF.

rad said...

hi prasun
3 bill $ for a lease of a nuke ?? seems fishy and extremely high prices a even we can build 2 nuke s for that amount.Does is include some unknown transfer of tech and hand holding??
2500 aa-12 is a hell of a lot , but i dont understand why the bisons did not fire their aa 12 as the were guided by awacs and had positional advantage as well??

There are reports that suggest the astra is a better missile than the aa-12 at least in
overall sophistication rather than range, some IAF personnel have opined that ?. what is the real scenario. Will we phase out the aa-12 slowly? is the astra more cost effective? and is it 100% desi as the seeker is made in India.IN what way is the desi seeker superior to the russian one? do we have plans to integrate it on the mig-29s as well?

how does a mirage 2000 pilot guide 3 spice 2000 bombs simultaneously as he has only one data pod guiding 1 spice till impact?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Which Lady are you referring to? Now to the issue of ‘avionics spooling’. Actually, it is a non-issue since it does not take 30 minutes for electricity to travel to the avionics LRUs. The term ‘spooling’ thus applies to only the inertial navigation system to get activated/revved-up & get its locational bearings right. Even for conventional dry-tuned gyros used for inertial navigation, the entire activation time was less than 2 minutes & the MiG-21bis even today on ORP-status can get airborne within 1.57 minutes. In case of the Su-30MKI with an inertial navigation system using RLG-INS, a similar feat can easily be achieved. Such aircraft, including the MiG-21 Bison, on ORP status are nowadays supplied with electricity by ground-power units (GPU) even when the turbofans aren’t in use (just like APUs being used by MBTs when the engines are idling). Once the scramble order is given, the turbofans come to life & the GPU is then detached from the aircraft, thereby saving several seconds for the scramble process to be put into motion.

The 30-minute period thus applies ONLY to the timeframe reqd for activating a HAS housing the MRCA that has been designated for ORP-status standby & that too in areas & times when the outside temperatures are high (as in Rajasthan or even in central India during summertime). The 30 minutes are then utilised for cooling the temperature inside the HAS, following which the GPU is attached to the aircraft for RLG-INS activation within 30 seconds, while the rest of the avionics are kept in idling mode (just like any PC idling on ‘Sleep’ mode.

To KUNAL JADHAV: 1) No. The TAR will still be used by several state Police forces. AK-203s will replace the older AK-47s now in use by the CAPFs & RR. AK-203s will never be used by the IA’s infantry. 2) It is already in service. More of these can be licxence-produced with DENEL’s help. 3) Because the locally-developed 7.62 x 39 SLRs cannot be produced in large numbers within a short span of time as of now, but the OFB Ishapore-developed 7.62 x 51 Ghaatak assault-rifle will be produced in very large numbers for the IA, IN & IAF & ICGS.

To UNKNOWN/RAHUL: Neither the berater nor the berated will offer documentary open-source proof of such beratings for obvious reasons. So if you want such proof, then the only option for you is to make friends with the Delhi-based diplomats of these 4 countries & then get them to confide in you off-the-record.

And BTW, both UNKNOWN/KUNAL & UNKNOWN/RAHUL seem to be mis-spelling my name. Coincidence or otherwise?

To BLAKURRANT: That is definitely possible, but the structural damage caused after the PGM explosions & bomb explosions will be no less severe.

To MOHAN: Not the Dash HMDS/Python-5 SRAAM combination anymore, but the Targo HMDS/R-73E SRAAM combination on the Tejas Mk.1 & the Targo HMDS/AIM-132 ASRAAM combination on the projected Tejas Mk.1A. Both of them will be extremely lethal against an adversary like the PAF that does not possess such HMDS/SRAAM combinations.

AMIT BISWAS said...

Is it too late to integrate ASRAAM into Tejas Mk1?? ...It will standardize the entire fleet na...
What are the ways for the pilot to know of IIR guided missile (SAM/AAM) targeted towards own aircraft ??? I guess only MAWS ?? So in the absence of such basic requirement who sanctioned the upgrading programmes of Mirage 2000s and MiG 29 UPG....i believe the air marshals were napping while deciding about the specifications...
Similarly the MAWS could have been incorporated in sukhoi fleets too in block or phased manner for frames manufactured in this decade???what's your views??correct me if I am wrong

SOUBHAGYA said...

Dear Prasun,

Will you please discuss about the NTRO report about 300 connections being active during the IAF strike? What's your say?

sbm said...

Thank you! Clears up a lot. Left out details of the lady Professor Christine Fair who indicated the IAF was incompetent and did not hit the targets and dismissed Francesca Marino's statements.

AMIT BISWAS said...

I would like to confirm whether datalinks in L band and UHF band are susceptible to jamming??

Hardik Thanki said...

Hi Prasunji,

F16 electronic signature point raised at Armed Forces briefing, the data would be taken from which platforms and is there a way to identify an Aircraft type from such means.

What are the ways that America can use to verify the F16's status in Pakistani service.

Thanks & Regards

Hardik Thanki

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Spice-2000 can also be navigated & guided autonomously as I had explained above yesterday. Have also uploaded its brochure above, which I had done way back in 2013 as well.

To KAUSTAV: Yes, the Budgaam Mi-17V-5 crash is worrisome & so is the case with combat SAR capability. The whole of Kashmir valley is strewn with helipads & some CSAR helicopters should have been on standby for immediately scrambling to the rescue of Wg Cdr Abhinandan. Why this was not done remains a mystery & no one seems to be bothered about it & hence a strange silence prevails. But I will dwell upon iy in this thread itself as part of the ‘Lessons Learnt’ section.

Meanwhile, yesterday began with this: Gen Qassem Soleimani, the all powerful CO of the IRGC Al nQuds Force, issued stern warnings to the Pakistani government and its military establishment. “I have this question for the Pakistani government: where are you heading to? You have caused unrest along borders with all your neighbours and do you have any other neighbour left that you want to stir insecurity for, Are you, who have atomic bombs, unable to destroy a terrorist group with several hundred members in the region?”

Within hours my late morning, both the Pak PM & his retarded Foreign Minister had started circulating rumours about a joint India-Israel combined aerial attack against Bahawalpur:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIT8siFEfUI (this is Pakistan’s foremost ‘desi’ bandalbaaz, who goes by the name of Hamid Mir)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV_sXLo_Dbo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBzO7FWH-T0

Then to justify the above rumour-mongering, this incident is staged:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpY88jkxcPM

Obviously the retards were trying to send a message out to Iran that brotherly Muslim countries should not fight with one another when one of them is being threatened by the Hindoo-Jew combine.

But by late evening, Pakistan’s civil society indirectly thanks India for staging the aikr-strikes & helping focus the world’s attention on the gangrene prevailing Pakistan:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6D0pzVoyuE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oX0C7KOPhdc

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS: Had answered all these questions several times before. All electromagnetic transmissions & receptions can be intercepted & jammed.

To SOUBHAGYA: LoLz! So, according to the nitwit who wrote that FAKE NEWS, it means that just because 300 cellphone connections were active in that area, that means there were 300 terrorists holed up within one single structure!!! Utter baloney & crap, to say the very least.

To SBM: You will have to furnish me with the weblink or videolink where such indications were given & only then will I be able to make the related observations. Meanwhile, I’be uploaded the air combat portion of the main narrative above.

To HARDIK THANKI: It is called the Divya Drishti radar fingerprinting system, whose slides I have uploaded above.

To MR: Let them be so. What’s the rush? If they are so anxious for finding clinching proof, then let them initiate crowdsource funding & pay the pooled-in money to any commercial satellite imagery gathering company & obtain the necessary imagery to in order to quench their thirst.

To MOHAN: Of course. Because Iran seems to have taken the cue from the IAF air-strike & Iran’s IRGC is now openly threatening to retaliate just like India did. So in essence, the IAF air-strike has created a very dangerous precedent for Pakistan & & now more of Pakistan’s neighbours will be emboldened to try something similar. No wonder the PAF’s CAS is making trips to ALL of the PAF’s forward air bases:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJw_EG4k2tw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwORuTjeHgU

Meanwhile, extensive damage has been caused by the IA & BSF along the LoC & IB through artillery fire-assaults, as detailed by Pakistan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gN-nEdKkqXY

Anonymous said...

Hello Prasun,
As always, many thanks for all your detailed analysis.

Is it true that Boeing is developing a facility in Nagpur for F-18s (don't know what exactly the plans are), with the expectation of bagging a contract from IAF for F-18s? If it is not for F-18 related work, what is it for?

Thanks,
USAK

Unknown said...

"UNKNOWN/RAHUL: Neither the berater nor the berated will offer documentary open-source proof of such beratings for obvious reasons. So if you want such proof, then the only option for you is to make friends with the Delhi-based diplomats of these 4 countries & then get them to confide in you off-the-record.

And BTW, both UNKNOWN/KUNAL & UNKNOWN/RAHUL seem to be mis-spelling my name. Coincidence or otherwise?"
Kunal, rahul and sometimes siddharth are one and the same person. These are pen names similar to prasoon.

Now to the point. In my observation after the pulwama attack all countries supported indias right to self defence just as they did in earlier terrorist attacks. It is the incumbent governments choice how they choose to defend themselves. And if they fail to so it, its them not being in a position to wipe their ass clean.

Cheers

Rahul

just_curious said...

Prasun,


-As this matter of national security seems to settle for now, can you please upload any pending pics and insights from your visit to aero india 2019 as you had mentioned in your prev post that it was yet to be concluded
- why does HAL keep pouring money on projects which are not reqd by its main client- IAF eg tejas SPORT after wasting after wasting tonnes on IJT 36. Also why does IAf insist on 3 stage training when many air forces world over have standardised 2 stage trainings. if IAF really wants another stage why not use combat hawk which is supposed to provide more realistic training of 4++/5th gen aircraft
- you mentioned that the new ofb made 7.62x51 assault rifle would be used by the IA and other forces as its main weapon (also be called ghataak, thought there onother with a .39 caliber of the same name).what is the status of its testing as last read was that it had failed miserably in its testing by the IA. If so, will the IA/others have to waits for decades again??

Anonymous said...

Sir it seems that someone in HAL has taken your advice seriously or is a regular visitor to this blog.

If the news is to be believed they have been working on LIFT based on LCA platform for quite sometime now, calling it SpORT.

http://idrw.org/hals-2-in-1-fighter-to-train-in-peace-and-fight-in-war/

Regards
Shashank

koolbuoy said...

Hi Prasun,

I've found a whatsapp conversation from the web in which a person related to Balakot medical college says that 298 people were killed, including 5 pregnant women and media has been strictly asked not to declare anything. Also, google earth and zoom earth show different images of the site, and I'm not sure whether the one showed on Zoom earth is latest or during the construction phase of the complex. Can you please shed some light on the same?

rad said...


hi prasun
if we have no air borne data link why cant we get the israeli stuff free that they had offered some time back as temporary solution?

if there is no data link then i presume the awacs is not feeding the IACCCS ? which is a set back in an air battle . is it so?

what does the pak have viz a viz our IACCCS? I believe some time back US company had networked the PAF in a grand way??

Buddha said...

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3wnXSpXUGsE
Could Kashmir Issue be Resolved according to Imran Khan's Tweet - Hamid Bashani & Tahir Gora @TAGTV
sir even if we assume With allied campaign Indian may get POK and gilgit baltisthan ..No possibil of getting akashi chin and the valley that are under china now.

Nanana said...

Wrt radio comments, the last supposed was "R73 selected" and the radio silence from our MiG (as per reports). Is there a chance a F16 was not downed?

Rlse, PAF RUMINT seems to be felicitating a "Wing Co Nauman Ali" for a Su30 hit. Is this in anticipation of Wing Co Abhinandan officially being awarded the F16 kill (post jos debriefing?)

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada great great information for soothing the hunger of everybody
Going by the turn of things pls clarify on the following
1. Why was not Su30 MKI used
2. Is Su 30 MKI inferior to Updated Mirage 2000 in terms of LGB, Radars, jamming and missiles
3. What equivalent Russian weapons of Spice 2000 are available in indian inventory and specially for Su30 MKI
4. Do you see such strikes happening in near future as well
5. Why could not we use pinaka or smerch MRLS in nuterlizing the terrorists tha positioning pilots and Fighter aircraft in harms way

World well wisher said...

To Koorbuoy, Would you be kind enough to show us where this Balakot medical college is? There is no such college. It's a fake news created by Pak intelligence to divert the anger against India by projecting dead pregnant women.

Ram Bharadwaj said...

An article in IDRW states that the PHALCON AWACS would have recorded the air enagagement on 27th and hence would have conclusive proof of the downing of the f-16. Is this factual?

Is it speculative that the downed F-16D was a used jordanian aircraft?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAUSTAV: I've uploaded above images of the DENEL-supplied Raptor TV-guided PGMs used by the PAF for its attack on Bhimber Gali. Looks like these PGMs ended up as duds/unexploded ordnance. The PN's propaganda about the IN's SSKs is for domestic consumption only & was meant to coincide with an NMF seminar that was held in delhi this morning in which the IN's CNS gave the keynote address.

To RAD: When one is defending one's airspace, airborne battle management is usually conducted by ground-based tactical air-controllers who are tasked with ground-controlled interceptions. Hence, line-of-sight airborne data-links on AEW & CS platforms only transmit the air situation picture down to the tactical air-controllers who in turn vector friendly combat aircraft towards their targets. Two-way tactical data-links are imperative only when one has to operate inside hostile airspace where no friendly tactical air-controllers are present & hence airborne battle management has to be done by the mission-controllers on-board the AEW & CS platforms.

Glaginye said...

Prasun Da,

Is there conclusive proof that the F16 was shot down.

Can you also throw some light on the new revealations by IAF today regarding Su engaging with F16's

Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
Now looks like next strike or move will come after election?
I think this time ahould be used to equiped the Afghanistan army and iraran to push for low intensity conflict. What your take on it?
Regards

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

1. Is it true that Wing Com Abhinandan was asked by ground control to disengage, but he pursued the F 16 & went across the border, thereby getting shot down in the process?

2. Is it also true that Gen Bajwa of Pak Army has been trying to reach out to GoI through back channels ever since he became Army Chief with the hope of starting a dialogue process?

Thanks,

Sujoy

Mayan said...

Today's IAF press release says SU30 evaded AMRAAM shot. Previous one said about Abhinandan's wingman evading AMRAAM. Does it mean that Abhinandan's wingman was a SU30? Confused now. Thought 2 Bisons went chasing the aggressors.

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa, the Indian Air Force Chief said today that several air to air missiles were fired by Pakistani jets at Indian Su 30MKI. But the Su 30MKI adopted countermeasures & therefore the missiles missed their target.

https://twitter.com/manupubby/status/1102945728316485632

(1) He didn't mention what type of air to air missiles were fired. Were they all AMRAAM or were there some Chinese air to air missiles as well.

(2) He didn't mention what countermeasures the Su 30MKI adopted. But is that because that information is classified?

As always, many thanks.

sandeep said...

Pardon Ji, why didn't IAF combat planes didn't engage all the fleeing planes of PAF as they had targeted our military installations, even if they were in PAK airspace..... I think SU30MKI and Mirage 2000 were capable to take them from standoff position without entering into PAK airspace.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

If the big powers really want us to take stronger action against Pak, why are they pressing for deescalation now ? After all, given Pak's current economic state, wo'nt it make sense for us to escalate (in a calibrated way) all the way upto a limited war by the time the snows melt ? Such an escalation would send Pak over the precipice.

Satyaki

sbm said...

Thank you for all your answers. What were the Su-30MKI and Mirage 2000I armed with during the engagement with the F16s. Surely they too had R77s and Micas? Any info much appreciated.

Flanker Fan said...

If our Mig 21 really shot down a PAF F-16, how come no pictures of the wreckage exists? In this day and age, with the proliferation of smartphones, is it really possible for Pakistan to prevent civilians from photographing the F-16 wreckage and posting it online? When Wng Cmdr Abhinandan ejected and landed in PoK, he was filmed by the civilians there and the video found its way to the internet even before the official ISPR tea-drinking video. So if the two Pak pilots ejected and landed in PoK, dont you think the civilians there would have captured such a dramatic sight on their cell phone cameras and uploaded it online?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To USAK: That is for an MRO facility for Boeing-built commercial airliners registered with various Indian airline operators. It was meant to come up ion the previous decade itself.

To UNKNOWN/RAHUL: Who uses the pen-name PRASOON?

To JUST_CURIOUS: The Ghaatak has not yet been subjected to user-trials. All previous factory-level tests by the IA were to get feedback on ergonomics & other such data.

To SHASHANK: There still remains a formidable obstacle yo be overcome: increasing the technical service-life of the airframe from the present 1,000 hours to 4,000 hours as was originally specified by the IAF.

To NANANA & RAM BHARADWAJ & GLAGINYE: By now there are several eye-witnesses from both sides of the LoC who have stated that they have seen 3 parachutes opening up on the morning of February 27, one of which was that of Wg Cdr Abhinandan. So it is up to you to either believe that a MiG-21 Bison has three pilots, or that there was another aircraft with 2 aircrew on-board that ended up inside PoK. And if that is a Su-30MKI, then where are the photos of its wreckage? So what is then one left with as being the only other option? Here’s another eye-witness account:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcUL6Rz0taw

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: 1 ) Had already explained it above yesterday WRT employment of BVRAAMs for close combat over mountainous terrain. 2) Nop. 3) Kh-58ME PGM. 4) Of course. 5) Because they are not precise strike weapons & are only area saturation weapons.

To RAD: You are getting confused with the existing HSLD bombs & the HSLD-NG which is still undergoing developmental trials. The Indian SSK was videographed way backl in November 2016.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: 1) it is possible, because as a rule his wingman should have followed him. That is why I have stated that the rules of engagement laid down are flawed, since by law India regards PoK as her own & therefore the airspace over the LoC should at worst be treated as contested & not hostile airspace. 2) Yes, because both he & his predecessor along with China were alarmed by India’s will/determination to wrest back PoK & hence he wanted to negotiate a face-saving deal. But unfortunately for him, all his bluff & bluster did not work. And that’s why the ruling-c;lass/decision-makers of Pakistan are no longer able to present a credible case for dispute resolution. After all, how can J & K be the root-cause for the India-Pakistan dispute if all the armed resistance within J & K is being waged by Pakistani nationals? Does Pakistam then mean to say that it does not respect or recognize the concept of nation-states & international boundaries & that religiosity transcends everything?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MAYAN: I have uploaded above both data & slides to explain how airborne self-protection jamming works & what’s reqd to make it work. That will explain everything.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) Only AIM-120C-5 AMRAAMs were fired by the PAF. 2) : I have uploaded above both data & slides to explain how airborne self-protection jamming works & what’s reqd to make it work. That will explain everything.

To SANDEEP: That is why I have stated that the rules of engagement laid down are flawed, since by law India regards PoK as her own & therefore the airspace over the LoC should at worst be treated as contested & not hostile airspace. From a legal standpoint, the airspace over PoK cannot be & should never be treated as Pakistani airspace.

To SATYAKI: Which country has ever said that de-escalation is now underway? Even in Pakistan the airports of Sialkot, Sukkur, Multan & Hyderabad are still closed for civilian air-traffic. On top of that, the US is imposing more restrictions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mkpa75vmPGE

To SBM: They were all armed with BVRAAMs & SRAAMs but they were orbiting in a different area & not over Sundarbani where the close combat was initiated & was stretched till Jhangar. Tjhat’s why I had uploaded the maps to be sense of the distamce & bearings.

To PAWAN & KAUSTAV: The clueless & utterly delusional bleeding-hearts of India are once again jumping the gun to herald that a ‘Nayaa Pakistan’ is at last rising like a Phoenix:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpgqzkIRlyw&t=13s

But unfortunately for them, the Pakistanis are saying just the opposite in these 2 panel discussions that also expose the deep-running faultlines separating the civilian leaders & army leadership of Pakistan, plus the convoluted/contradictory national narrative of Pakistan that has in the end proven to be self-defeating:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtL5W6ibOm4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRu_t6k4Zlo

The consensus in Pakistan is that this recent spate of preventive detentions is the 4th of its type, the first one being in 2002, followed by another in 2005 & then again in 2018. Back in 2002, close to 21,000 were detained for only a month & then released. Today that number has risen to more than 40,000 (to cater to both the Afghan & Indian fronts). Therefore, there is just no way that all these Jihadis will be jailed or mainstreamed or rehabilitated simply because Pakistan lacks the means & finances for such an undertaking. But the difference this time is that all the FATF regulations going against Pakistan are now being brought under the UNSC’s Chapter 7, meaning these are mandatory regulations whose defiance will only invite ex-communication from the world comity of nations.

And here’s that infamous rant from the retard: Fayyazul Hassan Chohan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYU2VCqvzKk

AMIT BISWAS said...

Thanks for clarifying about the SPJ saga....don't you think abhinandan was let down by his own when his wingman should have pursued what he did as it was right thing to do....will there be any enquiry against his wingman or abhinandan will be made scapegoat here...

koolbuoy said...

Prasun, perhaps these are the exact coordinates of the strike, These camps on an isolated area in the hilltop. 34.4635716,73.3184342. The comparison between two earlier images is incorrect as bing maps images are several years old. Can you please check?

rad said...

hi prasun
will the HSLD bombs get glide wing /? they look sleek enough for that.
Having glide wings and some sort of autonomous homing system will make them un beatable .

Cant the DRDO make a simple thing like a winged bomb? are they so in competent >

the chinese have made so many models of them .I wonder why pak did not use their denel supplied long rang glide bombs - crusie missiles and instead chose f-16?

report suggest that the pak f-16 radar and the amraams were easily jammed by the elm 8222 pod carried by the pak f-16 as predicted by you .

they would have night mares about future BVR encounters where the amraams will be useless.

More over the electronic signature of the amraam has been sniffed by the pod and registered making future jamming easy. can pak reprogram the amraam seekr to avoid the jamming?


Newcomer said...

Sir, have a doubt.. sorry for the trouble
In the post below the last raptor(un exploded) and above R73 image you have posted 4 images of the downed Mig..
In that, take the last image.. In that image there is a small splitter like thing(a block) in the wreckage above the number '02' in the date display(orange)
in that block there is a writing on marker which reads 80269 (difficult yes but it does)

this number(80269) when searched in the F16 database
http://www.f-16.net/aircraft-database/F-16/
You will get info on J-269 if you show details then you will know its Jordanian F16.. and PAF bought F16's from Jordan also so..

Are these relevant..? or just a thought..? A friend of mine notified this to me..

rad said...


Hi prasun
i am not enthused by radar guided AAM for the fact that we managed to jam spoof 4 ot 5 ammraam that were fired upon the su-30mki s. I is true??

Now the f-16 has also got a very good jammer alq-130 that will easily jam the R-77 and astra as well.
and we will have a stalemate in radar guided aams.

where do we go from here , my only thought turns to dual mode seeker like the stunner missile or an IIR guided astra. Firing 2 will nail any ac. What is your take given radar guided aams will be jammed in the future.??

Sujit said...

Prasun sir, it seems the three monkey petitioners in rafale are going to jail on the grounds of OSA..if it does ..better late than never

Prranshu Yadav said...

Prasunji, you missed a question of mine above. Can you please explain why a conventionally armed version of Prahaar is not developed for such missions? With a range of 150 km and 10 m CEP, it could have easily hit the Balakot camp without risking the lives of pilots, without having to send expensive fighters into enemy airspace and without consuming all the time and resources required to plan the mission like deciding the flight corridors etc.?

Ashish Gautam said...

I have been reading this thread question and answers for a week almost.... Found then quite informative and logical thanks for keeping things clear & precisely accurate.
Sir I have 1 question only
When PAF's F16 fired AMRAAMs on su30mki, why didn't they shooted them back??? I mean why all 3 invading F16s were'nt shotted down???
They could have took them down & even the escort aircrafts 10Km away.... Why spared all of them?? It was good chance to show PAF it's aukat shooting down their 12-16 aircrafts using bvraam etc

DAshu said...

here is the hint to other 2 parachutes, strangely no one talks about those 2 pilots who are they? and to make matter more confusing he is giving tribute to their 2 pilots.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QghGz59xyF8

Apparently 1st time ever IoC used the word 'IoK' and mention of phrase like 'state terrorism by India'. People here celebrated for being a guest of honour at Ioc, but the winner is the Pak.

Now they are trying to implement NAAP as militancy in IoK is indigenous by nature, we can keep denying it and they are winning the narrative war (information warfare)too.

Though it is a fact that you never ever proved wrong except on 1 occasion of your timeline of High intensity limited war to take back PoK

Pawan said...

Dear Prasun da,

Reading all in all on your blog and social media, It seems that Feb 27 PAF & IAF duel has shown for lack of better word a vulnerable side of IAF. Its played too conservatively. Poor SoP as you of not engaging at LoC within 10kms and not showing willingness to provide cover to MIG 21 point towards poor planning & execution.

Most puzzling is that why did not SU-30 fired BVRAAM. R-77 and AMRAAM have similar kind of range yet F-16 could lock & fire on SU 30 but Su-30 could not do so.

Even more bitter is decision by GoI to not retaliate against PAF failed strike on military installations and downing of MiG-21.

In end I think whole posture not only going to backfire on Modi but has brought Moral of forces down.

My apology if am sounding cynical or negative.

Regards,

Sumit sen said...

Dada if F16 fired 4-5 amraam's. Then why didn't we fired R77? And if fired why it missed?

Thehundered said...

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/iaf-attack-on-balakot-pakistan-military-build-up-loc-border-imran-khan-pakistan-army-narendra-modi-jammu-kashmir-jem/376979

"Pakistan's strategic 10 Corps has mobilised additional troops along the LoC."
"Pakistan Army's 30 Corps in the Sialkot sector, where troop deployment has been stepped up along the IB. "
"According to sources, one convoy each with heavy military equipment was seen moving along the Karachi-Khokrapar route, Mirpur Khas – Chor axis in Sindh and Hyderabad-Mirpur Khas route to name a few."

Anonymous said...

Hello Prasun,
Regarding the fragmented explosives from SPICE 2000 bombs that exploded after penetrating the buildings through the corrugated roof in Balakot, Pakistan - were these thermobaric?

Unfortunately, other than Vishnu Som of NDTV, nobody else in the media seems to be even making an effort to educate the masses on how the SPICE2000 works.

Methinks, below article is a must read for anyone (like Unknown and others above) who is still looking for pictures of destroyed buildings in satellite images.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-happened-at-balakot-unreleased-satellite-pic-may-prove-indias-case-2002060

Thank you,
USAK

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To USAK: Thermobaric warheads using FAE are used only against reinforced concrete structures like pillboxes. Normal buildings like madrassas are not made of reinforced concrete & only the pillars are made of reinforced concrete. That is why when HE or blast-fragmentation warheads are used, the concrete pillars manage to stay erect while the walls & roofs collapse, just like what has happend at the JeM's Madrassa Taleem al-Quran at Jabba Top, Balakot, in KPK, Pakistan. Thanks to high-resolution produced by REUTERS, I have done a bomb-damage assessment & have just uploaded the imagery above (the very first slide). And as expected, 'desi bandalbaazes' like that fella from NDTV you've quoted are light years away from reality, since he appears to be blissfully unaware of the NTRO-operated & ISRO-operated RISAT family of SAR-equipped satellites, which can see through cloud-cover. So, the lesser said about such blundering nitwits, the better.

To THE HUNDRED: That's because the IA is preparing for a massive fire-assault into the Leepa Valley (Keran Sector) from here (viewed from GoogleEarth):

34.487009 N, 74.06619 E

The IA's fire-assaults will once again completely close down the Muzaffarabad-Kel Roadway & with that all China-led dam construction activity related to CPEC will come to a standstill even after the snows melt this June, as will road connectivity between northern Pok & southern PoK.

To JYOTI SEN: Because of faulty rules of engagement, i.e. an over-cautious IAF probably because of limitations imposed by India's political masters, just like in 1999 when the NDA-1 Govt prevented the IA & IAF from crossing the LoC, & then released Masood Azhar in late december 1999. And such folks (desi netas) get awarded the Bharat Ranta!!!. So what else can be expected when such mindsets prevail???

To UNKNOWN: Of course the buildings are standing, but in what shape & form? If you want the answer, then do take note of the very first image/slide of this thread.

sbm said...

Once again excellent work.
You know of course Reuters tried to spin those very photos saying there was no damage.
Sad.

Anyway, given the air combat and our reliance on the R-77 for BVR combat, has there been any move to procure the R-77-1 new version or is it even in production?

Didn't the IAF have a lot of maintenance/ reliability issues with their R-77s? I trust those have been fixed?

Also what do you think the impact of the Adolf Tolkachev espionage on the R-77/R-27 vs NATO forces given his proximity to the programs?
https://warisboring.com/the-man-who-ruined-the-soviet-warplane-industry/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AMIT BISWAS & ASHISH GAUTAM: There are two issues that require examination: 1) the handing-over process at that time, i.e. change of command from AVM C harikumar to AM Raghunath Nambiar as the new AOC-in-C Western Air Command, & 2) Over-Cautious Rules of Engagement due to the perceived need for calibrating the escalation ladder. As I have explained above, if India legally believes that PoK is an integral part of India, then this should have been translated into practice by fully authorising the IAF to go in hot pursuit of any PAF combat aircraft that was airborne in any part of PoK during any air engagement over the airspace of J & K. Had this been adhered to, the IAF on February 27 would easily have been able to shoot down no less than 4 PAF combat aircraft due to sheer numerical & qualitative superiority.

To KOOLBUOY: Check out the very first slide of this thread.

To RAD: Glide-wings are conformal add-ons that are readily available from Russia. But not for HSLDs, since high-speed low-drag bombs are dropped at low altitudes & therefore they require a parachute for slowing down the bomb’s descent so that when they hit the impact point, the launch-aircraft is at a safe distance & is not hit by ricocheting shrapnel & ball-bearings. Had the PAF used cruise missiles, then the IAF would have responded in kind thereby climbing the escalation ladder, which the PAF did not want. Hence the PAF used the very same kind of PGMs that the IAF had used. And if the IAF already possessed 80 Rafales today along with 120 + 95 re-engined/upgraded MiG-27Ms/MiG-23BNs, then the PAF would not even have dreamt of launching its retaliatory air-strikes. In other words, the IAF’s conventional deterrence posture failed. When ALQ-131 ASPJs were delivered to Pakistan they were not programmed to defeat a BVRAAM like R-77 that was not in existence at that time. Future BVRAAMs will require dual-mode seekers in an assured hit is desired.

To NEWCOMER: Such bean-counting & splitting hairs is not necessary since it prevents one from focusing on the main/core issue, which is why was the IAF not authorised to engage in offensive barrier CAPs over PoK on the morning of February 27? Which the imposition of such bizarre & artificial ‘L:akshman Rekhas’ when India’s stated policy is that the whole of undivided J & K (inclusive of PoK) is an integral part of India?

To SUJIT: About time. The same should apply to all the ‘desi’ broadcast TV channels who had displayed such documentation.

To PRRANSHU YADAV: What for? Isn’t the BrahMos-1 already available? But then what if the PA had then retaliated with SRBMs at a time when India does not possess LR-SAMs for shooting down such SRBMs?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU: The short answer is that such diplomatic games are always the norm, i.e. denunciation at an OIC Summit, while at the UNSC those very OIC member-states will endorse the resolution on Masood Azhar’s UNSC designation as a global terrorist under the Chapter 7 regime. If militancy inside J & K is indigenous in nature, then how come there are 50+ citizens of Pakistani origin that are languishing in Indian prisons in J & K because they were caught red-handed while engaging in acts of terrorism? How come there are graveyards for more than 3,000 Pakistani citizens who since the early 1990s have been killed inside J & K while engaging in firefights with Indian security forces? How come all the ICOM comms systems & hand-held Garmin GPS sets recovered from slain Pakistanis inside J & K have all been traced back to Pakistan through their purchase/sale invoices? How come M-4 carbines used by the PA & ISAF forces in Afghanistan are ending up inside J & K? How come thousands of hand-grenades with POF emborsed markings have ended up inside J & K so far? How come China/NORINCO-made RPG-7 launchers & rockets have been recovered from slain Pakistani terrorists insides J & K since the early 1990s? And lastly, how come the bi8lk of the ‘indigenous’ natives of J & K who take up arms never seem to pro-actively engage in firefights with Indian security forces, but are always snuffed out whenever they leave their sanctuaries inside fruit orchards toseek shelter in built-up areas?

To PAWAN: There are two issues that require examination: 1) the handing-over process at that time, i.e. change of command from AVM C harikumar to AM Raghunath Nambiar as the new AOC-in-C Western Air Command, & 2) Over-Cautious Rules of Engagement due to the perceived need for calibrating the escalation ladder. As I have explained above, if India legally believes that PoK is an integral part of India, then this should have been translated into practice by fully authorising the IAF to go in hot pursuit of any PAF combat aircraft that was airborne in any part of PoK during any air engagement over the airspace of J & K. Had this been adhered to, the IAF on February 27 would easily have been able to shoot down no less than 4 PAF combat aircraft due to sheer numerical & qualitative superiority. The debate within India is thus not focusing on the main/core issue, which is why was the IAF not authorised to engage in offensive barrier CAPs over PoK on the morning of February 27? Which the imposition of such bizarre & artificial ‘L:akshman Rekhas’ when India’s stated policy is that the whole of undivided J & K (inclusive of PoK) is an integral part of India?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: VMT. I hope finally all the ghosts of this air-strike are laid to rest, especially by those ‘Caucasian Experts’ who have never seen the results of a bomb-strike in wooded areas in their lives & who therefore don’t know trees next to the impact area of the exploding bomb get CHARRED & uprooted, instead of just unburnt breaking barks & trunks! So I guess it is not just in India that folks are bereft of common-sense & are highly dismissive of the laws of the physical sciences!!! As for BVRAAMs, there’s no operational need for R-77R1s & all reliability issues were due to faulty storage protocols of the IAF that were resolved in the previous decade itself. When Adolf Tolkachev was spying for the US, the R-77 was still in the project definition stage & not even in the drawing boards. Only data on the R-23R & early-model R-27 BVRAAMs was compromised. And since he was employed by Phazotron JSC, his access was limited to only the radars for the MiG-23MF, MiG-25A/B & MiG-29A. He didn’t know what was going on in Tikhomirov NIIR & that’s why after the espionage operation was busted, the later-model MiG-25s & MiG-31s & Su-27s/Su-30s all got radars developed by Tikhomirov NIIR.

To UNKNOWN/RITESH: Will explain that later tonight in a new upload to the main narrative above. Suffice to say that there will be no escalation as far as airpower goes, & the focus will shift back to the cross-LoC fire-assaults.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DASHU, KAUSTAV & PAWAN: Damning revelations now pouring out from Pakistani journalists ab out the subterfuge adopted by Gen Pervez Musharraf between 2003 & 2008 when the so-called Four-Point Formula was being negotiated:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXVWaIJeYtM

Now let this be shoved down the throats of all those (starting with A S Dulat) who still long for the resurrection of the 4-Point Formula!!!

And this exposes the hypocrisy of the PA's COAS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uAKywwRcCk

It's the same old story, i.e. temporary winding down & preventive detentions for a few months, followed by releasing them. And the same excuse will always be given, i.e. "we are trying our level-best but this will take time due to capacity constraints." What this means is till the time the 'capacity constraints' are overcome (which they never seem to be), the Indian targets of Pakistani terrosists will continue to be massacred.

And as I had explained yesterday, there's just no roadmap for rehabilitating the 41,000+ terrorists that have been trained & equipped to act as 'sarkari jihadis':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01wMV08SSc

And these Pakistani 'desi patrakaars' do not seem to have read the DSCA notification of the F-16 sales to Pakistan through the FMS channel in the previous decade, which had explicitly stated that such hardware will be used for counter-terror operations only. That statement is still available at the DSCA website:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPENIwEGwRo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDiLy0PSjJE

And that was the reason why the UPA-1 govt under Dr MMS at that time never opposed such deals.

And more propaganda regarding the R & AW-NDS collusion:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRJ6nlMv7Vw

And finally, in addition to Arundhati Roy, these are the favourite Indian poster-boys of India nowadays:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x73k8wu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvU0FlR6AQ

To ASHISH GAUTAM: Aur yeh toh hai andhrooni haal hamaara:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2t9JQXjuEA

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: They have already commenced & that was the reason why the IA's COAS had visited the HQ of XV Corps & HQ Northern Command over the weekend.

To SBM: The only reason I can fathom as to why Reuters can't figure out the damage done to the Jem-owned Madrassa is because the Retuers' folks don't know how to zoom in on the image, silly as it may seem. That's why I have enhanced the resolution of the 2nd slide above (the original Reuters photo) so that everyone can zoom in & take a look for themselves.

sbm said...

I have to ask this - what of all this Rafale drama in the SC over this document Bhushan is trying to use?
For the life of me how does even if every fact in the document is true does it amount to wrongdoing?
Why is the SC entertaining this so far?
Weird.

Kaustav said...

The Pakistani Interior Ministry list of 68 proscribed organizations, including the JeM, JuD, numerous rechristened LeT, HuM & other terror groups exposed the reliance of Pakistan's military and intelligence services on terrorist proxies. If they are ever maintstreamed, it will only make it official from Pakistan what the world already acknowledges for a fact that PAKISTAN IS A TERRORIST STATE.

It is imperative for a semblance of peace and security in South Asia, the artificial construct of the state of Pakistan is ended forever and replaced with a reorganised setup more conducive to the territorial aspirations and peaceful intentions of Pakistan's neighbours bringing in an era of prosperity through trade connectivity between India Iran Afghanistan and China.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: Its elementary: what the petitioners are stubbornly clinging to is the notion/perception/belief that Stage-4 out of a 10-stage procurement process stayed the same even at the 10th stage. They are NOT willing to accept the fact that Stage-4 logically & inevitably morphed into stages-5, 6, 7 etc etc. That remains the basis of their argument despite all the documentary evidence to the contrary. Hence, instead of a legal; issue, it has now begun a face-saving/prestige issue because the credibility of the petitioners is now at minus-levels far below ZERO.

To KAUSTAV: More & more squealing Pak politicians are now taking advantage of the building international pressure to reveal more in bits & pieces about how & why the PA has been resisting since mid-2014 the permanent winding-up of all these sarkari jihadi tanzeems:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llW9TsvEQBs

But despite this, everyone there is still of the view that this on-going crackdown will be just another eyewash.

And in the midst of all this, this 'desi bandalbaaz' still has the gall to refer to such Pak sarkari jihadis as 'militants:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwFg4rP8gMs

Looks like he still does not know the difference between a militant & a terrorist. The former is a native of the land while the latter is from Pakistan.

Avijit said...

"On the wooded slopes above Jaba, they pointed to four craters and some splintered pine trees, but noted little other impact from the blasts that jolted them awake about 3 am on February 26."It shook everything," said Abdur Rasheed, a van driver who works in the area.He said there weren't any human casualties: "No one died. Only some pine trees died, they were cut down. A crow also died.""

This is not an investigation of a strike! do not take a bias and then plant sources confirming that bias. SOME PINE TREES dies and A CROW! really thats what you were made to publish?
Reuters, first reaction would have been to publish photographs from atop the Jabba top either on 28th or 29th Feb 2019. Their journalists should have been given free access within 48 hours of the claims made by GoI.

"Mohammad Saddique from Jaba Basic... said they had seen no casualties.

Sure, the government employees would not lie to you considering the fact that its the garrison state Pakistan. The same Pakistan which kept spreading the fake news since 2007 that Usama is dead. Then in 2011, they found him in Abbotabad. Was Reuters given access to the site within 2-3 days to the Abbotabad house?

Newcomer said...

Sir,
IAF confirmed Abhinandhan's Mig-21 locked on to enemy F-16.
What I heard is IAf told his last transmission was he had a lock on using R-73

Will he get the time to launch it and guide it all the way to enemy fighter using HMD..?
If so then would'd he had said some thing else like 'missile launch/hit /enemy down' or some thing..
I am confused by the statement which I don't know complete.Cannot find the authentic statement please shed some light..

Anonymous said...

VECTOR:
https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019/03/tally-and-locked-abhinandans-last-radio-call-before-he-fired-f-16-kill-shot.html

Interestingly this article says F16s could lock on to SU30s multiple times but failed to hit it . On the contrary, I understand that the MKIs have a better radar and could have locked on to F16s and fired a BVR missile as a Gamble shot. Could that be SU30s were handicapped or rules of engagement prevented them from being aggressive.

Anonymous said...

Guys not to worry the truth will come out.

Key questions for me:

SU30MKIs have been called mini-AWACS. What happened, why couldn't they launch the BVRs?
Is it the case F16s & JF-17s saw them before? If this happened that would explain that they spent most of the engagement in defensive mode.

Was the change in leadership know or was it sudden?

Mike

Avijit said...

A few Questions Prasun Da,

Regarding the misinformation being planted via Reuters into India new media


1) Why the image from 6 days (4th of March 2019) after the IAF operation is being compared with the one in April 2018? Why not give all the images starting from 27th, 28th, 29th,30th February 2018? Planet Labs Inc. must have them also..no? Planet Labs inc is a private company and could be hired to do stuff you want to make public!?


2) If nothing was damaged as per pakistani ISPR and media, then why were the journalists not given full access to the site within 24 hours of the strike? Why take them around the site and show them through a distance? Balakot madrassa is not a sensitive military installation of pakistan! is it?

3) When SURGICAL STRIKE after URI attack ensued, the same foreign press was taken there after the clean up and not very close to the areas and they all harped that nothing happened. This time after Pulwama, the pakistani establishement moved the jihadis from their launching pads across the LoC. Why did they do so, if the Indian Army is incapable of doing a surgical strike in the first place, as they always seem to suggest?

is it that the pakistan strength is misinformation and disinformation via planted news in the left-liberal media across the globe, while India relies solely on its diplomatic strength?

Avijit said...

more on the Reuters article

"Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, .....

"The high-resolution images don't show any evidence of bomb damage," he said. Lewis viewed three other high-resolution Planet Labs pictures of the site taken within hours of the image provided to Reuters."

Yeah sure! he would say so, if you show him the picture after six days. It is not that they had to build the entire camp with interior decoration as well! Pakistan had to do the necessary repairs to the structural damaged by concrete piercing SPICE 2000 and the six days of work showed enough result to be planted via the Reuters.

"Lewis and Dave Schmerler, a senior research associate at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation studies who also analyses satellite images, said 'weapons that large' would have caused obvious damage to the structures visible in the picture.

yeah genius, if you look at pictures from before the clean up it would show. not in the pictures after 6 days of repairs and clean ups.

MR said...

Looks like AK-203 is destined for Army first and then for the CAPFs. Vice Chief of Army confirming it. That means all indigenous solutions have been thrown into waste basket.

https://youtu.be/rlIu6lTHugw

Buddha said...

https://theprint.in/opinion/90-hour-conflict-with-pakistan-ended-in-a-stalemate-and-thats-a-defeat-for-india/202379/
Your view on the report sir..
https://theprint.in/defence/former-pakistan-president-musharraf-says-jem-carried-out-attacks-in-india-during-his-tenure/202524/

https://theprint.in/defence/india-and-russia-ink-3-billion-deal-for-lease-of-third-nuclear-submarine/202509/

https://theprint.in/defence/the-india-pakistan-air-battle-of-27-feb-facts-we-know-questions-that-remain-unanswered/202299/

Yet again terror attack in Jammu.
Seems pakistan hasn't learnt any lesson as usual

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/pakistan/pakistan-blocks-un-team-from-interviewing-hafiz-saeed/articleshow/68305157.cms

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

How is DRDO reverse engineering weapons like PGMs that have been imported so far? Are they simply ripping the munition then studying the circuitry or is it just that they download patent of some PGMs and then try to build it?

Thanks,
Sujoy

Devopriyo said...

Hi Prasun,

What do you make of this?
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/govt-approves-mega-reform-in-indian-army-sources/articleshow/68306954.cms

Gaurav said...

Hi Prasun..few questions as new details about the air fight comes out.
1) why the Su 30 mki did not fire R77 missiles? Are there any problem with R77?is there any problem with the Su platform itself?
2) it's said that Su 30 dodged amrram missile.is it due to super maneuvering of aircraft or some jammers?how jammer works to stop a inbound a2a missile?

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Is there any chance that the supreme court would order a probe into the Rafale matter based on the petition of Prashant Bhushan and Co. ? In spite of the AG not arguing effectively ?

2) When these people have no credibility, why was their petition accepted in the first place?

Satyaki

sbm said...

Once again, thank you for your answers. Much appreciated.

I have to play Devil's Advocate here for a moment:

What evidence do we have of the IAF shooting down a F-16?

So far it eye-witnesses saying two parachutes and IAF information from Abhinandan.

Is there anything else?

Thanks in advance.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARITRO DATA: The documents are not originals, but photocopies that were allegedly supplied by those deputy & joint secretaries who have since retired.

To AVIJIT: The DG ISPR had promised to ferry journalists & foreign diplomats by helicopter to the targetted site on February 26, but it seems those helicopters have still not been able to take off. Hence, a select band of pliant ‘patrakaars’ was sent there to sdcale only the hill-slopes, but NO ONE was allowed to reach the hilltop. That says enough of what’s being hidden. Anyway, my photos were picked up by some ‘desi’ broadcast TV channels yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeB6uFMu-Uo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd8MkhxiZBo

To NEWCOMER: Why the hell should anyone guide an IIR-guided missile to its target? The SRAAMs are all of the lock-on-before-launch type.

To VECTOR: The PAF F-16s were receiving positional updates about IAF Su-30MKI dispositions from the PAF Saab-2000 AEW & CS platforms & hence the F-16s airborne above PoK could position themselves perpendicular to the Su-30MKIs & initiate target-tracking from a distance of about 80km. The Su-30MKIs wopuld then, after being alerted by their RWRs, would initiate a 360-degree turn manoeuvre that broke the radar lock-on & hence the PAF could not launch the AIM-120C-5 AMRAAMs. Only 2 AMRAAMs were fired & that too not against any Su-30MKI, which were not allowed top engage any F-16 by any means for as long as the F-16s were over PoK airspace, i.e. faulty rules of engagement. And a last word of advice: don’t believe those ‘desi patrakaars’ (like the one you’ve quoted) who conjure up fantasy-like scenarios that are inspired by Tom Clancy-wrfitten pulp fiction novels.

To MIKE: Su-30MKIs cannot function as mini-AEW & CS simply because they don’t have two-way airborne data-links that are mandatory if exchange of tactical air situation picture is reqd.

To MR: Yes, but by ‘Army’ he was referring to the Rashtriya Rifles formations that are made up of personnel drawn from the IA & Territorial Army. The VCOAS NEVER said that the entire IA will be armed with such SLRs.

To BUDDHA: I entirely agree with that analysis.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: No one is reverse-engineering such PGMs. Most of the PGMs are being co-developed with Israeli OEMs.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DEVOPRIYO: They are just measures to reduce the number of senior officers at IA HQ since additional positions now have to be created for manning the projected Cyber Operations Division, Space Division & the Special Warfare Command Division.

To HAYRAV: 1 & 2) Already explained all that several times before in this very thread & again above.

To SATYAKI: 1) Not at all. Because this is getting extremely farcical. 2) Because it is called due process.

To SBM: Yes. The radar-tracks of the PAF formation showing 1 aircraft less on their way back. Plus this photo:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0ZMFevXcAAIbPv.jpg

To PAWAN: Looks like the Kashmiri Pandits are at last set to get long-overdue justice:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1Ct8G_UYAAVTJQ.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1Ct8G9UcAETko2.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1Ct8HAU4AI3Gt0.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1Ct8HAU4AE3wU-.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1B5snjXQAAtImq.jpg

And it is also high time that the Jamaat-e-Islami J & K is held accountable for their crimes against humanity:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0ghrvAW0AAvpG4.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0gfyOhWoAIzxPv.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0geVD-X0AA9ZUN.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0jXpcKXQAA7rQ9.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0jXpb_WsAE4Mru.jpg

Thehundered said...

https://bharatshakti.in/dont-panic-the-army-is-not-as-badly-off-as-it-is-projected/

"Additionally, over 75 contracts to buy and stock crucial spares for different equipment worth over Rs 15,000 crore (to be spent over the next four years) have been signed by the Army in 2017-18. These two measures alone have ensured that ammunition stock is up to date and almost 95 per cent of crucial equipment and platforms like Type A vehicles (armoured personnel carriers, army air defence platforms), all guns, UAVs and LORROS–Long-Range Reconnaissance and Observation System–and even general vehicles are on road that is they are serviced and ready for use whenever required. Earlier, at least 40 per cent of these platforms used to be ‘off-road.’"

"Similarly, a decision to establish two MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) hubs for the Army’s fleet of Advance Light Helicopters (ALH) at Mamun and Missamari has ensured that at least 65 to 70 per cent of the fleet is now available to fly any time against just about 30 to 35 per cent before 2015 because the helicopters had to be sent to Bangalore or the maintenance staff had to travel the long distance to the bases spread across Northern and Eastern Commands."

"Similarly, the decision to source ‘non-core’ items from the local suppliers rather them buying them through the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) as was done earlier, is resulting in massive saving. Over 80 items like berets, caps, socks, belts, sweaters, sports shoes etc. are now being directly bought from the market. Earlier, OFB used to source these items from the market and used to sell it to the forces at a higher price. For instance, the common combat uniform worn by all the troops was costing the organization four times the market cost! Today thanks to direct sourcing, best quality light rucksacks, knives, sports shoes, track suits and uniform, is being made available to the troops at a much lesser cost. The likely saving: Nearly 1200 crores a year!"

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

VMT. You said that ther would also be proportionate retaliation to Pak's air attack on us. Why is that off the table now ?

Satyaki

Anonymous said...

VECTOR:
Thanks Prasun , your explanation makes sense.

Nanana said...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0ZMFevXcAAIbPv.jpg That photo, is not a PAF crash but one of the H4 bombs?

Anonymous said...


The truth will come out, like the Kargil war. I have few questions:

Do you think Air-Land campaign is still viable?
Do we really have conventional superiority because I don't see any evidence, in the Air or Land?
Can we still expect the global community to help us de-nuke them?

Mrshad

MR said...

How is the Astra AAM coming up? We are not seeing many improved variants of R-77 coming from Russia. Is IAF looking at replacing R-77 with Astra or is there any better replacements available? Pairing western AAMs with Russian Radars is impossible given the sanctions,I presume?

Gopu said...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/startupnationcentral/2018/03/17/how-debriefing-like-the-israeli-air-force-can-help-your-business/

Interesting reading that Indians *NEED* to learn from Israelis. Israelis are not afraid to make mistakes. Whenever, they make mistakes, they make sure to go back and do things right. The IAF and the central government needs to learn that they have to hit PoK every 6 months or so, at the very least (and KPK if the terrorists are there). Hopefully, the Indian IAF is given the authority to operate within the legal entirety of J&K. With the proliferation of stand-off weapons and asymmetric warfare, India needs to think offensively and have the balls to attack where it hurts the enemy.

The current ad-hoc approach the BJP government has taken against Pakistan and terrorist organizations simply doesn't cut it. There needs to be long-term goals and planning to achieve results. I'm way more interested in seeing strategic gains, rather than the chest-thumping masturbation antics that the BJP and its goons are engaging in. There are already plenty of people raising similar observations, but there is no feedback loop to incorporate these ideas into the mainstream strategy.

http://iaf.org.il/4470-50008-EN/IAF.aspx

http://iaf.org.il/4479-50707-en/IAF.aspx

http://iaf.org.il/4473-50218-en/IAF.aspx

http://iaf.org.il/4479-50700-en/IAF.aspx

By the way, it would be nice if the Indian IAF could be this forthcoming in their press releases. The attention to tiny details exemplify the Isrealis' professionalism and calibre.

In Israel, there's a clear separation between military preparedness/operations and political bullshit. This is why Israel gets results and India gets paper results. Maybe someone should show this to PM Modi and tell him not to gamble with our pilots' lives for political stunts.

Sujit said...

Prasun sir, i think its high time we too get our own disinformation division.afterall wars are fought in the minds of nations, the outer dimension is just a manifestation of that..
just wanted to know out of curiousity, will the upcoming indigineous ssn will be havng less cost both in terms of purchase and maintainance wrt akula class??

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada:

Do not we have Armed drones in our inventory such as Predator C, Harop & Harpy.

It was discussed earlier that predator drones were being expedited and we have 110+ nos. of Harop in our inventory

Could not these be used in attacking the positions of Camps

Dada Enlighten us how does these UAS evade the Air Defenses Radars while loitering Is it due to size, speed or altitude

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: Why? The only answer is that the ‘Netas’ of India do not understand how the conflict escalation ladder functions in a calibrated manner & how this can be exploited to one’s own advantage.

To NANANA: if would be great if that was an exploding H-4, since the image shows the explosion taking place inside PoK across the LoC opposite Nowshera.

To MRSHAD: The truth is already in everyone’s plain view (see my very first images above) & is now being corroborated by this:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/team-of-reporters-blocked-from-visiting-terror-camp-that-iaf-bombed-in-pak/story-SsxOsQzoQk8Vofle1CXlDP.html

Maybe REUTERS got stung/insulted by my earlier comment/observation about their idiotic inability to zoom in on the overhead satellite imagery which they themselves had published! Both in air & land India enjoys crushing conventional superiority. For example, exactly how many GAF combat aircraft can launch BVRAAMs? Not the Mirage-III/V of F-7P or F-7PG. Only the F-16s & JF-17s can & how many of these are there right now? Now compare them with the no of MRCAs of the IAF that are BVRAAM-armed. Similarly, nonw of the PAF MRCAs have SRAAMs whose IIR seekers can be slaved by HMDS towards their targets. Similarly, they can’t do night interceptions with SRAAMs since they don’t possess IRST sensors. Coming now to the land front, just like the recent air combat incidents, the land war will be limited to only the LoC front, i.e. Chhamb-Sialkot sector. No one will even bother to cross over the IB as I have explained several times before. So that leaves the IA with more than enough assets from its Central & Southern Commands to be committed to its Southwestern & Northern Commands. The PA on the other hand has now heavily committed its assets (traditionally belonging to its central & southern fronts facing India) along the Durand Line & the Iran-Pakistan border areas.

To MR: Both Astra-1 BVRAAM & NG-ARM are coming up as expected & their service-induction will take place later this year, once their bulk-production begins at BDL. And since the SFDR-equipped Astra-2 is nothing else but an Astra-1 equipped with solid-fuel ramjets, its developmental process will be far quicker than that of Astra-1, since only the ramjet propulsion’s performance parameters needs to be validated.

To GOPU: In countries like Israel, almost all the politicians have either taken part in military hostilities or have been/are reservists. Hence, their mindsets are light-years apart from those India’s ‘netas’ who have no such experience in decision-making during hard-times where time is of the essence. And here’s an interesting research that characterizes the ‘swing-state’ mindset of Indians:

https://theprint.in/opinion/a-new-survey-reveals-what-indias-strategic-community-thinks-about-pakistan-china-and-us/202826/

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Survey-of-India%E2%80%99s-Strategic-Community.pdf

To SUJIT: No nuclear-powered vessels are cheaper to maintain. It is the need for a galaxy of shore-based support infrastructure that increases the overall procurement costs.

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: Of course, the IAF has had them since the late 1990s when the first 40 Harpy anti-radar drones were procured, followed by the Harops earlier this decade. Loitering drones make use of the same type of terrain-masking techniques as manned MRCAs do when it comes to evading detection/tracking by radar.

Nanana said...

Prasun,

Rahul Pandita had tweeted rhat image. Given that Ambuja cement truck next to it, i would say that was H4 striking army land. Do we have roads and shops this close to LoC? And if it was this vidible, why only 1 pic?

joydeep ghosh said...

Prasun da

a few things

1. first thing, you keep downgrading Iran capability. Iran has not only reverse engineering /copied RQ 170 as Shahed 171 Simorgh, the full scale copy but has also built a smaller armed variant the Saegheh, that was shot down by Israel last year.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2018/02/12/israel-air-force-says-seized-iranian-drone-is-a-knockoff-of-us-sentinel/

2. second thing, i strongly object to this notion of India following on footsteps of Israel, (like a minister who unfortunately is a veteran) India can/must never be a country like Israel where a 14 yr old Palestinian is shot dead with aim in the head, just for throwing stones or an unarmed medic for treating pprotestors

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/30/world/middleeast/gaza-medic-israel-shooting.html


3. third thing, what is your twitter id, i want to follow you :-)

4. fourth thing, why is India going for Kashalot SSN one of the oldest when the 40% complete Irbis, which is the newest (laid in late 1990s) and available?

5. fifth thing, you have said terrorism has a shelf life of 34 yrs approx so can we safely say terrorism in Kashmir is in last leg?

6. sixth thing you said in last thread something about increasing a jets life from 1000 hrs to 4000 hrs, is it possible to increase it 4 times

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: 2) There are already far better long-range PGMs like BrahMos-1 Block-3, while the Nirbhay with imaging SAR seeker is also being developed.

To NANANA: No exploding ordnance gives off smoke of the type seen in that image if the site of the explosion is just natural vegetation. The H-4 carries sensor-fuzed munitions that too do not emit such smoke. And the colour of the rising smoke is similar to that emitted by burning aviation turbine fuel. And yes, there are several areas in southern Jammu that contain human habitation right up to the LoC & WB.

To JOYDEEP GHOSH: 1) There’s no hard evidence to prove that such products were series-produced. 2) Such ‘netas’ are known to shoot from the hip due to their ignorance about ground realities. 3) I never had nor will I ever have any Twitter or Facebook account. Have never felt the need for them nor am likely to feel any need for them in the years to come. 4) Because it is only for lease & not for permanent ownership. 5) Yes, provided the bigots using religiosity to distort religious beliefs are exterminated (like the Central Asian Republics & China in Xinjiang have done) for good & with extreme prejudice; and those who indulged in mass-killings of Kashmiri Pandits who are still roaming scot-free are sentenced to death through a swift legal process. For, only when a govt fulfils its end of the social contract will the citizens repose faith in the govt & the writ of the state. 6) Yes. The CSIR & NAL have already done that for the MiG-21 & MiG-29 airframes.

And have also uploaded the section dealing with UAVs in the narrative above.

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
Thank you for your comments. I post your blog details in Malayalam newspapers as many of the readers think the pre-emptive strike was a failure, thanks to communist propaganda.

This brings to another question from me. Why the government of India says that Balakot attack was a pre-emptive strike but not a retaliatory strike. Why can't GoI say, we retaliate against Phulwama attack? Why can't we engage in retaliatory strikes whenever Pakistan attacked through terrorists such as Parliamentary attack, 2008 Mumbai attack, Uri attack, etc? Why does GoI worry?

Thanks,
Ravi_N

Anonymous said...

About the ban on JeI in Kashmir valley, was the GoI late to ban this organization? In the late 90s, I had a friend from Kashmir- a Shiite. He told me that if India wants to take complete control of Kashmir, it should ban JeI. They are the front organization of militancy in Kashmir and bridge between the Pakistan and politicians, terrorists, separatists, militants. They have arms all around India, including Kerala (my home state). They launder money and bring it to the Kashmir valley. If the funding source is stopped, militancy will be stopped and without money, terrorism will not survive. That time he told Mufti Mohammed Saed was the right-hand man of JeI and direct access to Delhi power. So my question is why did GoI take so much time to ban JeI? If another government comes to power in Srinagar or at center, then will it remove the ban on JeI?

Thanks,
Ravi_N

BENO said...

Sir
1. Are there any chances that India will go for purchasing more mig 29?
2. Will India purchase Mig 35 with aesa radar?
3. When do you think that the tender for 114 combat aircraft for IAF will be floated? or would it atleast take off?
4. With regard to the submarine procurement do you see India will procure additional scorpenes from MDL?

Kunal Jadhav said...

Hello Prasun da,

1) Since LCA Tejas has been given FOC can we assume that GSH 23 has been successfully intergrated and flight tested on it because there are reports about successful ground test in 2015.

2) Is it too late to have IRTS on tejas mk1A and Tejas MK2 ?

3) Like Tejas MK2 can Tejas MK1A too have wingtip hardpoints ?

DAshu said...

one more new narrative is getting traction - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXMIHkvruuY
I think they are years ahead in information warfare than us.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

Crushing the Jamaat-e-Islami in J&K may do more to control terror than all of our other measures. Why is it that only a handful of arrests have been made for this? Wont eliminating the Jamaat require thousands (maybe tens of thousands) of arrests? China in Xinjiang is said to have detained more than a million people.

Satyaki

Anonymous said...



There are lots of narratives out there. Where did the IAF fire the SPICE from? Was it from LoC or actually from within Pak air space?

Many of the bomb experts (including ours) do not believe it was a SPICE sized bomb. Why, because the latest HD Pics from the site, taken from 100m away, show intact glass windows, paint work in excellent condition.

RAT

get2free said...

Your views on this
Is 3rd one recent or old
www.opindia.com/2019/03/india-has-conducted-3-air-strikes-in-last-5-years-cannot-disclose-details-of-the-3rd-strike-rajnath-singh/

Buddha said...

http://forceindia.net/aero-india-2019/future-ready/
In this article you have states that pakistani Nasir has 150km range ...
Pakistan always states they are of 60km range
And for this hunt and kill India needs more potent aircraft like rafale in good numbers .
Can India achieve destroying all such missle
Without getting any hit and how many tactical warhead they have had .
A single hit may cause havoc in the advancing Indian Army.
When shall Indian armed force get that indian iron dom.
Russia or france who is gonna help India in building SSN force and which vehicle would the base arihant
scorpion or barracuda
As F16 is down by Mig21 will F21 stands any chance or we may see Mig 35 production to feed Hal and low cost sollution to increase squadron strength and 2nd trance 44 Rafale order.
What the untold strike Home minister ie reffering
to.
Can we see armed LCH coming to amry by 2020

sbm said...

I think you might get a laugh out of this.

Latest thing - black dots on roof before. So must be water tanks or tar.

I mean can this even be remotely true?

Pak info spin is very persistent.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI_N: Retaliatory strike means striking back in the same form, wehich isn’t possible since India does not resort to terrorism or use it as an instrument of state practice. Pre-emptive strike means undertaking offensive action in order to forestall an impending terror attack, wehich as per international law is allowed as a means of self-defence. Back in 2008 India did not attack because of the utter lack of political will & on February 27 the IAF did not retaliate after the PAF’s air-strikes in southern Jammu simply because the IAF does not have the CAPACITY to retaliate, i.e. on February 26 the IAF only demonstrated its CAPABILITY to undertake an offensive air-strike. But does it have the CAPACITY to undertake such air-strikes in a sustained manner? Definitely no. The PAF knows this only too well & that’s why it decided to stage its own offensive strikes on February 27 morning. For, like I explained several times before, the IAF’s main weakenesses today are the lack of deep-strike interdictors (for which the Rafales are on order) & lack of tactical strike aircraft in adequate numbers. Replacing 135 + 95 decommissioned MiG-27M/MiG-23Bn is not an easy task by any means. These aircraft, instead of being decommissioned, should have been re-engined with AL-31F turbofans back in the previous decade itself. Had this been done, then the PAF would never have dared to stage its attacks of February 27.

As for religiosity-provoked extremism in the Kashmir Valley, it is all explained here:

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CxWGE_r7EIU/Wxx7C8Sps6I/AAAAAAAAPC8/WeP87aHWdacz0YyXjt76oegVngEJqnMpgCLcBGAs/s1600/Religiosity-1.jpg

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iAvYmCnezTM/Wxx7LkEA82I/AAAAAAAAPDE/cZAxMOJR8bAmgzga6TGsfFgDTxnewI0mACLcBGAs/s1600/Religiosity-2.jpg

To BENO: 1) Yes. 2) No. 3) Most unlikely to ever happen now. 4) Yes.

To KUNAL JADHAV: 1) Not at all. In fact, the IAF has suggested to ADA that a pod-mounted HSG-23 cannon suite be developed. And the Tejas Mk.1 from No.45 Sqn that was on static display at Aero India 2019 clearly had no internally-mounted cannon. 2) No for Tejas Mk.1A since there’s no available internal volume for such an installation. Tejas AF Mk.2 scale-model & accompanying brochure shown at Aero India 2019 clearly shows an IRST fitment.

To DASHU: Since the BCCI contributes 70% of the ICC’s annual earnings, the PCB can cry as much as it wants to, but no one will pay any heed to such cries.

To SATYAKI: The dragnet has already been spread & what matters most is that the top leadership is arrested & prosecuted. That alone will result in a trickle-down effect.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAT: My slide above clearly shows from where the Spice-2000s were fired, i.e. beyond PoK & over KPK’s airspace. There was plenty of time since the Chaklala-based PAF F-16s took 5 minutes to scramble & another 5 minutes to reach the targetted area. All HD photos were taken from below the hilltop & that too they show only the guardpost at the entrance because this is the only road through which folks have been allowed to approach the site & take photos. Whereas the high-rez photo from REUTERS clearly shows the overhead roof structures of the main 4-unit building seriously damaged, as can be seen in the topmost slide of this thread. And that’s precisely why the debate has now shifted from WHETHER ANY HITS TOOK PLACE to WHAT KIND OF WARHEADS WERE USED. If really no damage took place at all, then rest assured that the ISPR would have taken local & foreign journalists by the truckloads to the site within 12 hours by bus or any other vehicular means in case the local visibility conditions were not conducive for helicopter ferrying.

To GET2FREE: 3rd strike refers to the one carried out in 2015 inside Myanmar against the NSCN-K camp. And this is its latest result:

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-nudges-myanmar-crackdown-on-naga-rebels/article26425452.ece?homepage=true

To SBM: The ‘desi’ TV channels are showing WRONG imageries for post-strike BDA. They ought to focus only on the one published by REUTERS in which the structural damage is clearly shown & there are no holes of any colour anywhere on the roof. Only on one secondary building to the southeast of the main strike-hit structure there are four dark spots visible, which could well be water storage tanks.

Mohan said...

Prasun sir,
"lack of tactical strike aircraft in adequate numbers. Replacing 135 + 95 decommissioned MiG-27M/MiG-23Bn is not an easy task by any mean." But iaf has jagure and few squadron of mig-27 for tactical airstrike.?
Then can according to you iaf support ia mission to capture pok if it cannot sustain tactical airstrike?
Regards

Vivek said...

Prasun da,

There is a school of thought that last few days have exposed weakness of IAF and hence it was a big mistake to carry out the air strikes and expose the gaps in our air power..... Pak firing at loc is also bcoz we have got exposed

Your answer to Ravi also points to same thing as you are also talking about capacity vs capability

As a layman my question is that we have always believed that IAF is a formidable force and i think even you have commented earlier that it can ground entire PAF in a matter of hours, then how did we end up exposing the gaps so badly, is it a potent force or not, or is it good only in defense and lacks attacking assets, so many sukhoi good only in defense ?

Request your answer / views pl

Thanks
Vivek

Thehundered said...

Prasun, will the Shtil SAM vertical launch system be installed on INS Delhi as part of the MLU? and what surface surveillance radar?
-Are the first three of Talwar class ships also being upgraded? and with what systems? Thanks.

https://www.janes.com/article/81566/indian-navy-destroyer-ins-delhi-receives-extensive-combat-systems-makeover-during-mlu

"Under the destroyer’s MLU programme, a significant portion of legacy Russian-origin combat systems are being replaced by indigenously sourced kit, in addition to other ship system and habitability upgrades.

The KH 35E Uran anti-ship missile system, including the Garpun-Bal missile targeting radar, is being replaced by the Brahmos missile system and an unspecified (SSR)."


Thehundered said...

1-Why was MAWS not part of Mig 2p upgrade?
2-Does the Mirage upgrade include MAWS? if not, then why was it overlooked by IAF.



https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/crashes-aircraft-losses-turn-fy-costly-for-indian-air-force/articleshow/68328260.cms

"The air force has lost 16 aircraft in the financial year – ranging from helicopters to combat jets and trainers "

"On the budgetary side, the air force has committed liabilities in the 2019-2020 financial year – part payments due for procurements like the Rafale fighter jets that have already been made - to the tune of Rs 47,000 crore. Against this, the air force has been allocated just over Rs 39,000 crore, which cannot cater for replacements unless there is a mid-year augmentation of funds. Parliamentary data shows that in the three financial years between 2014-15 and 2016-17, a total of 35 defense aircraft"



bhoutik said...

i wonder whether only top leadership of jamaat will suffice. they have created an ecosystem which will fill the void. this is a vast & dedicated organization.

i feel on the home front, what needs to happen is banning madrassas and replacing each with normal ones with proper history books (non-leftlib), & simultaneous crackdown & constant monitoring for at least a generation, of jamaat and like minded ones who are not foot soldiers (hundreds of thousands of people at a minimum)

this is what is not happening in bangladesh - & the results r so evident. a new generation is by default turning into alt-islamists. people with all the trappings of 'modernity' but with islamic characteristics. like the usman khawaja fellow for example - looks like a normal person - dig deeper, & he converts wife to islam. terrorism is the stupidest manifestation of this fascism. the real danger are the alt-islamists who are visible during times of crisis on twitter - the normal lookin pakis.

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-economics-of-islamic-fundamentalism-in-bangladesh/

https://ctc.usma.edu/the-funding-methods-of-bangladeshi-terrorist-groups/

http://scd.rfi.fr/sites/filesrfi/Political%20Economy%20of%20Fundamentalism%20in%20Bangladesh.pdf

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MOHAN: The availability of Jaguar IS is also reducing due to delays in re-engining with F-125IN turbofans, while the 2 remaining MiG-27UPG Sqns in Jodhpur are also experiencing problems with their R-29B turbofans. As for cross-LoC offensive AirLand operations, the shortfalls are in areas of helicopter availability in adequate numbers. Over mountainous terrain, offensive infantry-centric operations can be undertaken & sustained only if large numbers of medium-lift helicopters & attack helicopters are available.

To VIVEK: The weaknesses have been exposed only to the Indian public, because the adversary has known about it all along, especially in the arena of ground-based air-defence. For instance, the low-flying PAF F-16s coming across the LoC on February 27 to attack the 4 ground targets ought to have been successfully engaged by both SHORADS & VSHORADS of the IA. But to me the far greater deficiency was in reading the adversary’s mind, i.e. despite all the previous war experiences of 1965, 1971 & 1999 which had convincingly shown that the maximum military effort by Pakistan was committed against J & K, then this time too it ought to have been obvious that the PAF would retaliate only across the LoC into J & K and not anywhere else. This failure to appreciate the adversary’s mindset has yet again proven to be India’s Achilles’ Heel. And it is also perhaps due to this failure that the IAF was prevented from scoring an air combat kills over PoK airspace. Bottomline: the failure/shortcoming is not in hardware quality or their numbers, but is due to faulty mindsets & the consequent inadequate preparations on the ground.

To THE HUNDRED: The Barak-8 LR-SAM will go on-board. LTR-25 L-band naval radar from INDRA of Spain will be installed. Garpun Bal-E radar will be retained since all BrahMos-1-armed warships too make use of this very same radar (the Caucasian/Firangi patrakaar has thus got it wrong). MLU for the 1st Batch-1 Project 1135.6 FFG has commenced & it can clearly be seen along with INS Delhi via GoogleEarth. MAWS was NOT part of MiG-29 upgrade because the DRDO put in a spanner in the works by saying at that time that it would be able to supply such fitments by 2014. Of course this never happened. Upgraded Mirage 2000s have MBDA-supplied MAWS.

Meanwhile, another Pak UAS was shot down by the IAF early yesterday morning near Sri Ganganagar, north of Anupgarh:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7bxJrPZC_Y

To DASHU: This too is trying level-best to gain traction (along with the US & israel, France too is now working with India to destabilise Pakistan):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8poSvTY1V8I

sbm said...

Hi Prasun, a question from one of your comments - what VSHORAD systems are deployed in J&K?

Also, what do you make of the analysis in here - seems to use the same Reuters photo: https://theprint.in/defence/first-satellite-images-show-likely-damage-to-jaish-balakot-camp-but-no-massive-destruction/201639/

Thanks

Millard Keyes said...

When you say Prasun large numbers of attack and medium lift helos, how many exactly are you looking at? Sounds like until the LCH is operational in large numbers this will never be addressed as the mere 22+ Apaches will never be enough. On topp of that Mi-17 crashes are reducing the numbers available by each day. Like I said before India wants the world to pause just because it has pressed the pause button.

AMIT BISWAS said...

Why doesn't IAF or it's pilots sue DRDO for making false promises and jeopardise the safety of pilots in the absence of MAWS in MiG 29 UPG???

AMIT BISWAS said...

Hats off to you once again for correct prediction for PAF air strike package engagement only in Kashmir area ....This shows once again beyond doubt that next war too will be limited to Kashmir with high kinetic intensity ...

Dushyant hardaha said...

Sir
Could IAF still install AL31F into mig27

bhoutik said...

*if the barak-8 is part of the delhi class upgrade, what is the fire control radar?

*what will the upgrades be for the 1st Batch-1 Project 1135.6 FFG MLU?

*the air defence gaps in J&K that you mentioned - are those due to a lack of coverage by sensors? if so, what would be needed to rectify it, more aerostat mounted radars?

*https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/science/gaganyaan-isro-experts-to-receive-training-for-indias-space-project-in-france-says-cnes/1507359/

the report above mentions a spasce-based maritime surveillance system. is it for tracking navy or civilian traffic, and what is so crucial that france brings to the table? could it not have been done with others like japan?

Agnideep Bagchi said...

Hi Prasun ,

Do you agree with below analysis :

https://www.voltairenet.org/article205570.html

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

You comments on below article please:
https://www.tribuneindia.com/mobi/news/nation/3-pronged-thrust-on-face-saver-for-pak/740708.html

Author says india will attend BRI. Does it not tantamount to giving too much just for designating one person as terrorist. I don't see the logic here. Also, isn't it like we agreeing to cpec in a way.

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

bhoutik said...

*i was hoping you would shed some light on australia's CEAFAR radar family. how does australia make seemingly modern radars like those? are they able to source tech from US / plug into the american ecosystem due to them being allies? and if they have these local sensors, why did they go for american ones for the hobart class?

*the battery multi function radar & the battery surveillance radar - are they in production?

*https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zAApiXRyN3A/XGvK1MN8XAI/AAAAAAAAQoc/6xzUWJiYy4YOvf1HiEfaeXZD4F-Ig__xwCLcBGAs/s1600/BEL%2527s%2BX-band%2BAir-Defence%2BRadar-2.jpg

the above picture you uploaded of the x-band AD radar, seems unusual to amateur eyes like mine. a little explainer please, on the tech used, possible uses, etc.

* how would you rate the arihant class, comparatively

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SBM: The very same that are deployed elsewhere, i.e. Igla-1 MANPADS. As for the analysis you’be highlighted, all I can say is that it is overhyped due to wrong photo-interpretation. In any case, with every passing day during which access is denied to the top of the hill, Pakistan’s case/point-of-view/claims get less & less credible.

To PIERRE ZORIN: How Many? For medium-lift helicopters, the reqmt is for moving at least 1 entire air-assault infantry brigade & all its supporting hardware, while for attack helicopters, the reqmt is for 200 at the very least. A large fleet of attack helicopters is a MUST if the IA is reqd to reduce its manpower-levels in appreciable numbers, so that if the adversary attempts any mis-adventure across the IB (like an armoured thrust), then instead of deploying infantry & artillery to defeat such thrusts, swift-moving attack helicopters can be deployed en masse to defeat such hostile mis-adventures through multi-directional attacks with ATGMs & as well as through vertical envelopment.

To AMIT BISWAS: Why should the DRDO be sued when it is the MoD-run by civilian politicians & bureaucrats who take the final call & decide on such matters? And that’s precisely why nothing is moving WRT procurement of locally-made SSNs because some bureaucrat in the MoD has opined in writing on a file that for selecting the local shipbuilder for building the six SSNs, a competitive RFP should be issued! So in a world where no country today is maintaining two separate shipbuilders for constructing two different types of nuclear-powered submarines,. The Indian MoD wants to prove the whole world wrong by attempting to implement the unthinkable!!! And if such suggestions are over-ruled, these very bureaucrats will start leaking photocopies of their observations on paper to the likes of THE HINDU, which in turn will raise a huge stink in the public domain along with the likes of Bhushan/Sinha/Shourie, thereby virtually ruling out the prospect of such submarine-building projects taking off!!!

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: Not anymore. All decommissioned MiG023BN & MiG027M airframes are now rotting in the open.

To BHOUTIK: Obviously it has to be the MF-STAR. Project 1135.6 FFGs will retain their existing radars & weapons. There are no gaps in radar coverage over J & K. Only additional SHORADS & VSHORADS systems are reqd to be forward-deployed. France can bring in its high-tech SAR sensors that can even locate & measure the wake of seagoing vessels. Australia has been conducting R & D on CEAFAR since the early 1990s.

To AGNIDEEP BAGCHI: Its is an outlandish analysis ridden with factual inaccuracies.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRINAVASA NANDURI: Yes, China is trying its level-best for securing a face-saver, but is unlikely to secure one unless it stops highlighting the CPEC as a masterpiece of BRI. This is similar to what Pakistan was trying to secure, i.e. it already knew about all the dangers of FATF blacklisting under UNSC’s Chapter 7 guidelines (that would put an end to the financing of foreign education of the children of all the high & mighty of Pakistan, especially the military officers) & hence the COAS of the PA, Gen Q J Bajwa had seen sending all kinds of feelers to India via various means (especially Navjot Singh Sidhu) since the latter half of last year. The PA COAS was hoping that once India accepted even a symbolic holding of talks with Pakistan on the J & K issue, then the PA could sell such talks to the 41,000-strong sarekari Jihadi community as constituting a victory for Pakistan & this then would have enabled Pakistan to initiate yet another symbolic crackdown on such jihadi tanzeems just for show so that the FATF blacklisting could be avoided. But fortunately India refused to take the bait, & in any case India was not doing any major lobbying against Pakistan within FATF since the complaint against Pakistan had been made not by India. But by Indonesia. In addition, the P-4 this time really pressured India to increase the profile of the pre-emptive strike against Pakistan post-Pulwama & also convinced India to maintain the military pressure by refusing to scale down the alert status of the IAF so that the P-4 could use this as the stick with which to clamp down on Pakistan via the FATF route. All that seems to be working very well thus far & the wily Saudis have now stepped in to the rescue of India, Pakistan & the Saudis themselves by proposing to Pakistan that if such hard-core Sunni Jihadis refuse to back down against India, then the only other option left for Pakistan on the table is to transfer them en masse to Saudi Arabia where they would receive further military training & then they would be unleashed against the Iran-supported Shia fighters inside Yemen. Now the ball is thus in Iran’s court to militarily react against Pakistan.

And of course such high-stakes games will be totally beyond the understanding of the likes of M K Bhadrakumar & Co!!!

To SATYAKI: 1) If the hostilities are confined to a 15-day period, then the IAF’s superiority will be overwhelming. But if the hostilities are of an attrition-type nature that drag on for months, then the IAF will start facing capacity shortfalls. This will affect the PAF as well, but the defender (in this case the IAF) will have to pay a heavier price. 2) No. Not that. My reply immediately above explains the gameplan that’s afoot now. 3) No. Apparently, their F-16-mounted DB-110 pod-mounted LOROP sensors have detected one or two of the IA’s Artillery Divisions with BrahMos-1 fully deployed in Rajasthan & that’s why the Govt of Pakistan has since February 27 been talking about an impending missile-strike by India on up to 9 different targets. In addition, the IA is building by psychological pressure by publicizing the IA COAS’ recent visits to HQ Southwestern Command, HQ Western Command & the HQ of the Parachute Brigade yesterday in Agra. And to top it all, there were these 2 meetings accorded special publicity:

https://twitter.com/indiannavy/status/1103619340442759169
https://twitter.com/adgpi/status/1103673806097448962

The last has profound implications, since the HQ Integrated defence Staff is now setting up a tri-services SOCOM as well.

To DASHU & KAUSTAV: Interesting reads:

http://safenewsrooms.org/silencing-kashmir/

http://safenewsrooms.org/how-is-the-foreign-press-muzzled-and-controlled-in-pakistan/

rad said...

hi prasun

does the NGARM need the siva DF pod or can it operate on its own, does the NGARM have the ability to take down a radar that has been shut after being targeted?

as usual Pak took the initiative of firing on our su-30, were the su-30 specifically told not to fire back as sop? It would be highly stupid to give such orders as the pilot is the only one ho knows the real battle situation at that time ?

Kaustav said...

Prasunda,

Thanks for the light of truth that you shed on the situation in POK as well as the various constraints on the Indian Armed Forces, self-imposed or external as well as psychological and practical.

It is important that atleast the chattering classes get an understanding of the situation and challenges faced by our country. I believe that your blog as well as the excellent tweets by Lt.Gen.S.A. Hasnain are helping Indians in this psy-ops aggression mounted by the Porkis through various media.

The situation in Afghanistan does look grim though. http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/the-long-shadow-of-taliban-hangs-over-afghanistan/
Can India not help the existing Afghan Government in any way and at the same time have a airbase in Afghanistan? The election code of conduct certainly does not apply to the armed forces and operations are still on. Is it too big a strategic decision for India? We might have to be sorry and pay dearly for the present delay later. Kindly comment.

Enigma said...

Sir,I don't have enough knowledge about defence matters but after reading your comments about the IAF's capacity problems,I have become really worried about the IAF and its future?

1)In the above comment,you said that if the hostilities are confined to a 15 day period,then the IAF's superiority will be overwhelming but if there is a longer period lasting for months,there will be capacity shortfalls.You have said on many previous occasions that future military conflicts between India and Pakistan won't last for more than 14-15 days.So this won't be too much of a problem right?

2)How many Rafales should India procure in your opinion?Is 148 enough?Or we need more Rafales(like 200+)?

3)+How many squadrons should the IAF have in your opinion?

4)How many years will it take for this squadron shortage problem to be solved?When will the IAF have enough number of squadrons accor=ding to =your estimates?

5)Will the Rafales,along with the S-400 and whatever 5th gen fighter we procure in the future,be enough to ensure that our airspace is secured against all or most types of threts and also strike fear into the hearts of our western and eastern neighbours?

Eagerly waiting for your response.

Regards,
Enigma.

capricorn said...

can you tell more about HAL UNMANNED WINGMAN AND THE NEW UAS/PGM(i dont know what) displayed at aero india 2019 in the new upgraded jaguar pic??

Buddha said...

https://www.financialexpress.com/defence/more-firepower-for-iaf-against-china-pakistan-sukhoi-30-mkis-to-get-5-next-generation-brahmos-ng-missiles/1512331/lite/
You idea is coined there.
Tv reports suggest that today pakistan sent armed drone ...
Drone violating airspace in India from pakistan in IB has become a regular event. Apart from downing what other measures India is taking.

bhoutik said...

Commander of USSOCOM looking very indian with what looks like a kara-derivative on his wrist. globalization.

Nikhil M said...

Hi Prasunda,
Will LCA Tejas Mark 2 carry internal self protection EW suit elike Rafale (Thales Spectra) or will it have to carry external self protection jammer like LCA Mark 1A (consuming 1 pylon)

Does MAWS (like one on LCA Mark 2) also work as self protection jammer? or does it only gives information /warning of approaching missle?

Regards
Nikhil

MR said...

What's the update on Pinaka? Has the navigation system been perfected? Is it a home grown solution or imported?

Avi Das said...

Looks like someone has lifted your suggestions and is presenting it as his own?
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/india-pak-calls-de-escalation-dialogue-smack-defeatism

VIKRAM GUHA said...

PrasunDa,

1. Former Air Chief Marshal A Y Tipnis said today - " The Su-30MKI's technology is dated in all parameters. In addition, with respect to failure rates, reliability, sortie-generation capabilities and a host of other performance parameters, the Su-30MKI ranks a poor second to even its predecessor in the IAF, the Mirage 2000".

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2019/03/09/deal-36-rafale-masterstroke-iaf.amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

If this is true, then why did successive IAF chiefs sign off on an ever increasing order book of Su30 ?

2. An IAF fighter pilot said today - " To put it in simple terms, we needed to put two Sukhois against each F-16 to avoid these hits." Meaning the F-16 shot at the Su 30MKI and missed because there were 2 Su 30MKIs for every 1 F-16.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/pulwama-attack-balakot-strike-iaf-challenges-mig-21-bison-5618654/

Will you please explain why IAF send in 2 Su 30MKI against 1 F 16 ?

Thank You

Anonymous said...

Hi Prasun,
The official stand of pak govt is that no damage to life or property was done in balakot. Their media and other commentators are toeing this line everywhere.same was seen during uri strikes. My question is why is indian govt not releasing undeniable proof to counter this narrative for good. This will also help to name and shame their govt/army. I suspect there is some kind of deal/understanding between the 2 govts. Your thoughts?

Sumit

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

What's your say about this?

https://www.timesnownews.com/amp/india/article/balakot-air-strikes-jaish-e-mohammed-terrorists-pakistan-india-indian-air-force-indian-air-strikes-masood-azhar-pulwama-terror-attack-crpf/380328

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: No, it is not reqd since the NG-ARM is equipped with 2 seekers for detecting both low-band & high-band emissions & therefore does not need to be instructed on which emitter to home on to. Only a simple on-board selection & lock-on is all that is reqd.

To KAUSTAV: The situation in Afghanistan is not as bad as it appears to be, but India now needs to exercise military power along with Iran to vachieve the desirable outcomes.

To ENIGMA: 1) It is not just about the respective fleet strengths. There are other shortcomings as well, like this:

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/sukhois-hobbled-by-lack-of-blast-pens-near-loc/article26488483.ece?homepage=true

2) 80 at the very least & 130 at best. 3) 55. 4) Not before 2042 if one goes at the present rate of progress. 5) Forget 5th-gen MRCAs & instead go for more Rafales.

To BUDDHA: The BrahMos-NG won’t be available before 2026 at best.

To NIKHIL M: That is a given. Carrying pod-mounted ASPJ imposes aerodynamic drag. MAWS is totally passive & only gives warning cues.

To MR: The entire navigation & terminal homing package comes from MBDA.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To AVI DAS: The writer of that piece was totally pissed off with this remark by the former NSA:

The reality was—and this still exists—that India did not possess the kind of special forces (with the requisite capabilities) that other countries had, viz. Russia’s Spetsnaz, Germany’s GSG-9, the U.S.’s SEALS and the U.K.’s SAS and SBS. It was felt at the time that it would not be possible in the circumstances to carry out a pinpointed attack on either the LeT or JeM headquarters. Whether India should violate Pakistan’s airspace was also carefully deliberated upon, but wiser counsels at the time felt that this would be perceived as nothing short of war. The failure to take action is being reviled today in certain circles, but it needs to be remembered that some of India’s finest years were during the period 2009-2012. It may be said that having already taken the step, there can be no going back. India’s leaders, however, need to be reminded that India’s restraint in responding to previous terror attacks is the crucial factor giving India credibility as far as keeping commitments are concerned. It is important to recognise in this context that India is committed to‘No First Use’ in nuclear matters, and the world has accepted this guarantee purely based on India’s moral capital and stature. The question is whether India’s word will be treated as inviolable in the future, even as India seeks a seat as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. This is something that we need to ponder over.
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/lines-being-crossed/article26425124.ece?homepage=true

I had met M K Narayanan for a few hours back in 1989 in Singapore. He never struck me as being of above-average intelligence.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) That’s right & that’s the very reason why the Super Su-30MKI project was initiated back in 2010 to overcome all the deficiencies. 2) The reason why Su-30MKIs were not deployed in adequate numbers in J & K was & is due to this:

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/sukhois-hobbled-by-lack-of-blast-pens-near-loc/article26488483.ece?homepage=true

Possessing a greater wingspan than the MiG-21 Bisons, the Su-30MKIs require bigger blast=pens & NG-HAS, which does not exists in Srinagar or Avantipora air bases & hence Su-30MKIs have to come all the way south from Halwara. Had the Su-30MKIs been scrambled from air bases in J & K, then by using classic air combat tactics the MiG-21 Bisons would have had adequate protective cover at medium-altitudes from the higher-flying Su-30MKis & not a single AMRAAM could have even come near any IAF aircraft. This instructional film, although dated, gives a very good idea of what close air combat is all about:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvDz4MrYXNc

And lastly, of all questions, the only question that comes to the mind of NDTV’s science editor is this:

How Does One Have Sex In Space? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQ6uqXW97Fk

If this is not a classic example of how such Indians excel in making their country the world’s laughing stock, then I don’t know what else it can be!!!

Technology, Photograpy and Travel said...

"https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/sukhois-hobbled-by-lack-of-blast-pens-near-loc/article26488483.ece?homepage=true " I got my response Dada, Thanks ...

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

What is the status of super sukhoi and how is it going to affect the number of Rafale aircrafts?

Dushyant hardaha said...

Sir
when dpsa aircraft is such a important issue for IAF then why drdo ada had initiated development of such aircraft.Why time and resource was wasted on LCA

get2free said...

Why Pakistan is sending so many drones ??

VIKRAM GUHA said...

With so much joblessness around not sure how Pallav Bagla type mediocre individuals get such high paying jobs.

Dolts like them aside PrasunDa -

1. Is there still some talks going on between Russia & India for a FGFA ?

2. IAF will get the Dassault Rafael before it gets the Super Sukhoi, isn't it ?

Thank You

Anonymous said...

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/let-them-take-flight/article26502547.ece

Sir ,

As per this news report by Adm Arun Prakash , DRDO has shut down the Kaveri project again .Any confirmation on this Besides what happens to our indigenous efforts to build up a turbofan ? Is it shutters down forever ? What about the consultancy of SAFRAN to GTRE on the Kaveri K9 as part of their off set obligation ? Just recently there were news reports suggesting that SAFRAN had given the go ahead for flight tests of the K9 fitted to an LSP Tejas Mk1. What was that all about ? What about further iterations of the K9 viz K10 , K11 etc to be developed jointly with SAFRAN? What happens to them ?

Regards ,

RJS

DAshu said...

-"China wants ‘serious talks’ before UNSC body takes up Azhar Masood case"- this country China will always back that terrorist army country.
On a separate question is it possible for Pakistan to be out of greylist now? As per Mr Assad Umar they are going to be out of greylist, unless he is talking about going into Blacklist from greylist.

Millard Keyes said...

May be the science editor is concerned that with Pakistani N strike perhaps only he and a few Netas would survive and have to take on the serious responsibility of replenishing the life forms in India from space (where he expects to be when all this drama on the subcontinent occurs). This means he has to master (pun intended) the techniques of semen-ating information
OR he might think the current tensions can be cured by following Marvin Gaye's Sexual Healing technique - possibilities are endless LOLLZZZ

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PAWAN: At last the wheels of justice have begun moving. I wish this was done by the late 1990s itself:

https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/yasin-malik-jammu-kashmir-militancy-govt-policy-failure


To SUMIT: Where exactly is the need for seeing such video footage? Why can’t the IAF’s statements be believed? And why is Pakistan too preventing those interested in going to the hilltop for seeing the results for themselves?

To ASD: It does not matter at all whether 263 or 300 pr 30 terrorists were killed, because as I had explained earl;ier Pakistan can mobilize up to 41,000 of them for fighting inside Afghanistan & India. Why is no one focussing on this reality? WQhat has to be realised & grasped is that in Pakistan the Jihadi Tanzeems are an integral organ of the govt, just like their parliament, legislature, judiciary, bureaucracy & armed forces. And if anyone there is serious about eliminating terrorism in that country, then the first step he/she should take is change the official history & educational syllabus of that country since these two propagate & perpetuate Pakistan’s pathological ideological hatred of a secular India. If this isn’t done, then even if terrorists are eliminated from time to time, the phenomenon of terrorism & its enabling environment will always prosper & expand in Pakistan—something that the propagators of ‘Nayaa pakistan’ have not yet understood or are too afraid to accept it as reality.

Super Sukhoi upgrade project will be officially launched later this year, rest assured.

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: That’s because the LCA was conceived as a light MRCA just for the sake of replacing the MiG-21. Had it been conceibed as a replacement for MiG-21s, MiG-23Bns & MiG-27Ms, then today’s projected Tejas AF Mk.2 would have become tejas Mk.1 at the very outset.

To GET2FREE: For enabling the IA & IAF to hone their targetting & sharpshooting skills.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) Not at the moment. 2) Yes, the Rafales (not Rafaels) will start arriving this September. The Super Su-30MKI prototypes will be rolled out by late 2020. And this is what was tested yesterday by the PAF:

https://www.dawn.com/news/1469204/pakistan-successfully-test-fires-extended-range-smart-weapon-adds-to-jf-17-capability

https://quwa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/GIDS-REK-02.png

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0VFN7lhSyd0/UrZkng1HXVI/AAAAAAAAg4c/g_lvmRY14fc/s1600/Pakistani+GIDS+TAKBIR+Series+Satellite+Aided+Inertially+Guided+Bomb+Family+Joint+Direct+Attack+Munition+Extended+Range+(JDAM-ER.jpg

It is the LS-6 glide-bomb.

And this is what was launched by the PAF in southern Jammu on Feb. 27:

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2015/12/Screen-Shot-2015-12-01-at-4.43.24-PM.png

To RJS: he was only referring to rumoirs, not factoids.

To DASHU: How can China block any UNSC resolution against JeM or its leadership when Pakistan itself has started the crackdown against such persons? In fact, chances are that Pakistan too will not oppose the forthcoming resolution, which many Pakistanis themselves are now saying. In fact, if one follows the timelines of various statements, it now appears that after the IAF air-strike of Feb 26, no one has opposed or condemned the air-strikes (not even China) & almost all have acquiesced to the fact that India through the air-strike has exercised her right to self-defence. And this is what is rankling Pakistan the most, because no one is saying anything about upholding Pakistan’s sovereignty. At the same time, whatever India’s longstanding demands were WRT dismantling the terror-networks inside Pakistan in a verifiable manner are now the very same demands of the FATF. This in turn is encouraging many to believe that India had sought & received the approval of the P=4 for the air-strikes & above all this, everyone involved had also agreed to a synchronized upping of the ante against Pakistan, especially the US & Russia—both of whom despise the Afghan Taliban. Consequently, Pakistan today has emerged far far weaker on 2 distinct fronts against both Afghanistan & India WRT to its bargaining powers. So, it appears that both the White House & Kremlin worked together with India to not only bring unbearable pressure on Pakistan, but also to isolate China at the same time. Hence, the blacklisting of Pakistan for at least a 2=year period is now assured. These 2 talk-shows aired yesterday throw further light on what I have explained above:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZLetusQ_mc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wdz0ogE07ys

Anonymous said...

You probably misunderstood my question. My question was not about Indian public but pakistani public/media who believe whatever their army says. Why our govt allows that to happen. Even today ToI reported that our Def min knows the f16 pilot's name but she won't make it public.why such information is suppressed and govt allows Pakistan ISPR to continue its propaganda?

Sumit

Pierre Zorin said...

IDEX - Indians are missing out on mobility platforms as showcased here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhYvZATOb5c
This expo showcases vehicles that would be very useful in areas like Kashmir and NE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ON9c4amAFS8

Pierre Zorin said...

Meanwhile Yoana Barakova of the EFSAS spoke out the truth which are not even discussed in India.
Plus Pakistan now publicly stated Israel as its number 1 enemy so I wonder how long before Israel will act when China supplies the Nuclear triad mechanism to Pakistan....It would be hypocritical for Israel to tolerate Pakistan with a capability to annihilate Israel when they are so averse to Iran possessing the same.Somehow I don't think they will...

Prranshu Yadav said...

Prasunji, here is an alternative strategy that I can think of, that should be easier, quicker and cheaper than a manned airstrike while also keeping pilots and fighter jets out of danger. I have also factored in the point you made about India currently not having LRSAMs that can shoot down Pakistani SRBMs. Do you think this is a viable route?

1. Evacuate Indian military installations in the region in anticipation of Pakistani missile strike.
2. Hit the target inside Pakistan with Brahmos and let Pakistan attack empty Indian installations with its own SRBMs.
3. Depending on extent and nature of Pakistani strike, initiate an asymmetric retaliation, ie. Instead of carrying out a tit for tat SRBM strike on Pakistan, carry out cross LOC shelling of Pakistani posts/ terror camps.
4. Pakistan too will retaliate with its own artillary shelling. And the exchange will go on for a few days until talks and ceasefire as usual. This should prevent further escalation.
5. Next terror attack, go back to step 1 and repeat.
This should eventually establish a new normal until terror stops emanating from Pakistan for good.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: My previous comment explains it all WRT glide-bomb.

To PIERRE ZORIN: How China manages to have the last laugh:

China may be standing in the way of a United Nations ban on terrorist leader Masood Azhar but its companies are getting a large chunk of the Rs 639-crore Indian Army order for new bulletproof jackets. Chinese companies are now the main overseas raw material source for the 180,000-jacket order after Indian company SMPP changed its suppliers after winning the bid in April last year. 40% of the jacket material, comprising fabric and boron carbide powder, are being imported from China. During the selection process, SMPP presented jackets that contained raw material from western sources in Europe and the US but changed its suppliers after winning the contract. The company said this will make no difference to the product. At least Rs 26 crore have been paid to a set of Chinese companies operating in Beijing’s Changping district by SMPP since it won the order last year and that the material has been delivered to the Indian company at its manufacturing unit. The first batch of 10,000 jackets are being accepted after a series of firing tests to check for quality. Defending the change of suppliers, SMPP said it had driven down costs by going directly to the manufacturers of the material instead of western suppliers that were getting it from the same source. “Even during the testing phase, five out of the 10 competitors had jackets with Chinese materials. They were not disqualified for that reason,” Kansal said. The biggest of the four suppliers – Beijing Protech New Material Science Company Ltd – said in its profile that the company was started in 2003 and that its products have been certified by the Chinese government. A listing on Chinese portal Alibaba showed that 45% of its exports are to the Middle East and 10% to Southeast Asian companies.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chinese-materials-find-way-into-army-bulletproof-vests/articleshow/68384425.cms?utm_source=twitter_wap&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialsharebuttons&from=mdr

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

https://medium.com/@sameerjoshi73/hell-for-leather-e8d607efb854

asd said...

Awesome explanation by Sameer Joshi. Thank you for posting such a beautiful link!!!! Explanation with formulae!!! Let's stop the mouth now 😂😂😂😂.

Anmol Chaudhary said...

What do you think could have factored into China blocking the resolution ? You had been convinced that it would not.

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

Thanks for sharing those links (in an earlier post) pertaining to how aliens came down to Earth & created the modern civilization.

I just came to know from several sources who study Astrology & are posting their finding on social media that from 2032 onwards till about 2050 their will be tremendous upheaval, violence, militancy across India because of a certain Rahu Mahadasha.

These events they say will dwarf the violence, wars that India witnessed in 1947.

Do you have any thoughts on these astrological findings? If yes, please do share.

Thanks,
Sujoy

bhoutik said...

prashun bhai, are these the HSLDs that were dropped on Balakot - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1bDhEJXQAARLBe.jpg:large

Glaginye said...

Prasun Da,
What is your opinion on this.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/balakot-air-strike-what-unreleased-satellite-images-of-the-balakot-air-strikes-show-2006941?pfrom=home-livetv

সুমন্ত নাগ said...

http://idrw.org/pak-jets-went-supersonic-10km-from-loc-iaf-on-high-alert/

Prasun Da, what is PAF up to ?

Thanks and Regards

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