Delusional In Cuckooland

What goes and will inevitably always go horribly wrong when someone who is an ENT Surgeon by profession and an ex-Adviser to the UN’s World health Organisation (WHO) gets to become the Govt of India’s Union Minister for Science & Technology while also wearing the hats of Union Minister for Health & Family Welfare and Union Minister for Earth Sciences? This is the end-result:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/howthe-saras-aircraft-will-be-a-game-changer-analysis/story-FL7FFkbGxrNeRYQ7qYy5XN.html

In other words, a totally distorted and non-factual narrative that only perpetuates a state of denial by deliberately refusing to read the writing on the wall. For, while I am dead-sure that Dr Harsh Vardhan has perfectly honourable intentions, his implementation methodology for introducing a game-changer in India’s domestic civil aviation market through the UDAN scheme (to facilitate and stimulate regional air connectivity at affordable air-fares) under the Make In India mission is horribly flawed. And here’s why.

Claim-1: The ‘Saras’ is the first-ever indigenous light passenger aircraft. The first attempt to design and develop a multi-role transport aircraft began in 1999 after the green signal from the then PM AB Vajpayee, and award of the prestigious project to the NAL, a constituent of the CSIR. The CSIR-NAL, without prior experience, designed and developed the first prototype of ‘Saras’.

Reality: The Govt of India had in May 1998 created the Centre  for  Civil  Aircraft  Design  &  Development  (C-CADD)  as  the nodal point  of the National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL) under the Council of Scientific & Industrial Research (CSIR),  with  a mandate to play a lead role in the design and development of small and medium sized civil aircraft. So henceforth, NAL became the lead designer-cum-developer for civil aviation aircraft, with state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) merely acting as the prime industrial contractor. Consequently, NAL, being essentially a laboratory like the Ministry of Defence’s DRDO-owned Aeronautical Development Authority (ADA) with no available human resource expertise required for designing and developing any type of aircraft, quickly began the process of making erroneous decisions, starting with the attempt to productionise a 14-seat twin turboprop-powered commuter aircraft that had already been developed abroad. The ‘Saras’ had already been developed in 1991 as the ‘M-102 Duet’ by Russia’s JSC V Myasishchev Experimental Machine Building Plant, which later opted out of the project due to financial constraints and offered to sell all intellectual property rights (IPR) of this project to C-CADD in June 1998. The then NDA Govt’s Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in June 1999 approved sanction for the C-CADD to complete the M-102 Diet’s developmental process, following which in September 1999 the project was renamed as ‘Saras’. Russia’s Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute TsAGI and Gromov Flight Research Institute (GFRI) were roped in as project consultants. NAL next received an order from the Indian Air Force (IAF) to supply 15 ‘Saras’ aircraft, whose deliveries were to begin in 2014 and conclude in 2017. The first HAL-built prototype (PT-1) was powered by two Pratt & Whitney PT6A-66 turboprop engines and its maiden flight took place on May 29, 2004. The ‘Saras’ was originally proposed to have a weight of 4,125kg but it increased by about 24% to 5,118kg. Two prototypes have been produced to date. The second prototype (PT-2) was built by HAL with composite materials to decrease its overall weight by 400kg compared to that of the PT-1. PT-2 was powered by twin uprated Pratt & Whitney PT6A-67A engines and it made its maiden flight on April 18, 2007. This prototype crashed near Bidadi, situated 30km away from Bengaluru, in March 2009 during a routine flight-test. Another consultancy contract was inked between the C-CADD and TsAGI and GFRI on February 18, 2011 under which the two Russian parties were required to assist C-CADD in weight-budgeting and aerodynamic optimising the airframe of the ‘Saras’ (by conducting wind-tunnels tests at TsAGI), plus assistance for ensuring the certification of airworthiness of the aircraft, since India’s state-owned Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) is only an endorser of foreign certificates of airworthiness (CoA) and it does not possess the kind of human resources required for undertaking any CoA-related tasking of an industrial nature. Thus, as a result of Russian assistance, the C-CADD was able to make the following modifications to the airframe of PT-1N: significant reduction of control forces, optimisation of nacelle design (for the engine mounts), modifications of the environmental control system and cabin pressurisation system, installation of an automatic stall-warning system, modification of linear flap-tracks and trim-taps on the elevators, enhancement of rudder area for better controllability, modification of flight-test instrumentation, modification of electrical systems for reducing voltage losses, and provision of nose boom for the air-data system for redundancy. Apart from above modification on the aircraft, the following additional safety measures have also been ensured by the team. Despite all this, the project’s funding was terminated in 2012, but was revived in 2016 following which NAL assembled a young team of 40 engineers and technicians for working on the project for the next nine months. The modified PT-1N prototype made its maiden flight on January 24, 2018 from the IAF’s Aircraft & Systems Testing Establishment (ASTE) in Bengaluru. According to C-CADD, the production version of ‘Saras’ will be a 19-seater and will undergo both civil and military certification processes for which two Limited Series prototypes will have to be built at a cost of Rs.500 crore. If all goes well, then the first series-produced ‘Saras’ will be handed over to the IAF. The C-CADD has estimated a total domestic requirement for 160 ‘Saras’ aircraft.

Claim-2: The in-house design and manufacturing of ‘Saras’ Mk.2 are now attracting global attention. The reasons are the low acquisition and operating costs, high aircraft performance abilities and the latest generation technologies compared to any contemporary aircraft such as the Dornier Do-228NG (Germany), PTDI’s N-219 (Indonesia), Beechcraft-1900D (US), LET-410NG (Czech Republic) and Harbin Y-12F (China).

Reality: Firstly, none of the above-mentioned commuter turboprop aircraft have as yet equalled the marketing success of the best-selling STOL commuter aircraft, i.e. the Viking DHC-6 ‘Twin Otter’. Secondly, with the exception of the Beech-1900D, all of the aircraft mentioned by Dr Harsh Vardhan are STOL platforms featuring a high-wing design. Thirdly, no one has to date ever produced an official data on the ‘Saras’ aircraft’s direct operating costs per flying hour and MRO man-hours required per flying hour. Without these two critical figures, no one can claim that the ‘Saras’ will be characterised by low acquisition and operating costs.

Claim-3: In just four more years, Saras Mk.2 will obtain final certification. Their induction into the Indian Air Force (IAF) will begin from 2024.

Reality: Final certification from which certifying authority of India? The DGCA is only an authority that ENDORSES the international CoAs awarded by the US FAA and Europe’s EASA bodies for all kinds of commercial air transport aircraft (both fixed-wing and rotary-winged aircraft/helicopters). It was for this reason that the certifying authority for the ‘Saras’ was changed in 2016 from the DGCA to the Centre for Military Airworthiness & Certification (CEMILAC). But there again, the CEMILAC is authorised to award CoAs only to military platforms (both fixed-wing and rotary-winged aircraft/helicopters) and consequently, this will be acceptable only to military operators of the ‘Saras’ like the IAF. It is for this very reason that till to date, not a single sale of the HAL-developed Dhruv ALH’s civilian variant has been sold to anybody, be it in India or abroad. Nor have any civilian VVIP ‘netas’ of India ever been seen flying on board the Dhruv ALH. Ask any potential operator of civilian helicopters and he/she will explain that for the Dhruv ALH to be acceptable as a civilian platforms, it will mandatorily have to receive a CoA from either the FAA or the EASA, and not from either the DGCA or the CEMILAC. And why so? Simply because insurance companies worldwide provide hull insurance only for those platforms that are certified by either the FAA or EASA and that’s precisely why such platforms have resale value. That will not be the case with CEMILAC-certified platforms like the Dhruv ALH and ‘Saras’.

Claim-4: The Saras project will pave the way for the knowledge generation, design and development of the 70-90 seat aircraft for regional passenger connectivity.

Reality: Totally not. Instead, it will only lead to the Indian taxpayer’s money being wasted. CSIR/NAL is only a scientific institution, not an engineering one and therefore product engineering is definitely not CSIR/NAL’s forte and that is precisely why the ‘Saras’ has to date remained an aircraft of/by/for just scientists. In fact, HAL had by the late 1990s itself proposed that it be authorised to develop a 90-seat regional airliner, but the then government-of-the-day, perhaps presuming that it had been blessed with all-knowing wisdom, overruled HAL in favour of CSIR/NAL’s proposal for buying off the M-102 Duet’s IPRs from Russia. It has all been detailed here:

https://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-multi-phase-castration-of-hal-from.html

What, however, eludes answers are the following: What exactly will the ‘Saras’ Mk.2 be able to offer that the 19-seat HAL-built Do-228NG STOL commuter aircraft cannot? And why was C-C-CADD tasked to develop a 14-seater twin-turboprop commuter when HAL had already begun licence-producing 19-seater twin-turboprop commuters more than a decade earlier? Why was the development or co-development of a 30-seater twin-turboprop or twin turbofan-powered commuter not considered at all? Why was HAL’s proposal to develop a 90-seat regional airliner turned down? Is this what has been causing demoralisation on a steady basis within HAL to such an extent that today HAL’s unions are now on strike?

South Korea Unveils Gen-4.5 KF-X Full-Scale Mock-up At ADEX-2019 Expo

Following the completion of the critical design review in late September this year, Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has lifted the curtains on a full-scale mock-up and cockpit of the KF-X 4.5-generation, twin-engined M-MRCA at the ongoing ADEX-2019 Expo in Seoul, along with more technical details. In February 2019 the KF-X team settled on the definitive larger C-109 design that was developed with the help of industrial partner Lockheed Martin. Indonesia’s PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PTDI) is KAI’s industrial partner, responsible for investing 20% of the US$8 billion in R & D costs for the KF-X’s developmental effort. Indonesia has been backtracking from its original commitment to invest 20% of the developmental costs, or $1.6 billion. KAI is obliged to pay 20%, and the RoK government is to fund the remainder. Under a 2016 deal, Indonesia is due to receive up to 48 IF-X variants. But Jakarta has to date paid up only $190 million, some 13% of its financial commitment, citing domestic budgetary constraints. As of last July, Indonesia had a funding shortfall of $250 million.

With a maximum takeoff weight of 25.6 tonnes and a 7.7-tonne payload, the KF-X can achieve a range of 2,900km while being equipped with 10 weapons-carrying stations. KAI will first focus its developmental efforts around the Diehl IRIS-T SRAAM and MBDA Meteor BVRAAM. The ROKAF has specified the six-barrelled M-61 Vulcan cannon, mounted on the airframe’s port side. The cockpit architecture resembles that of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning JSF, with an 8 x 20-inch panoramic touchscreen AMLCD and sidestick control-stick and throttle. A full-scale mock-up of the cockpit depicts a full, single-panel touchscreen display in place of traditional multi-function displays. The display offers a full-range of tactical information, including radar tracks, weapons and engine status, and other key data. Unlike the touchscreens found in smartphones and tablets, the panoramic AMLCD’s buttons will require greater pressure for inputs. This helps reduce tracking errors stemming from smudges and scratches. The sidestick-mounted controls improve situational awareness, as it enables the pilot to keep his or her attention focussed outside the cockpit.

Some 65% of the KF-X’s hardware will be produced by local companies, including Hanwha Defence, which will licence-build the General Electric F414 turbofan, as well as landing gear, control actuators, and other components. LIGNex1 will produce the electronic countermeasures suite and secure tactical data-link, heads-up display, and communications suite. Hanwha has also developed—with some foreign assistance from Italy’s Leonardo Group’s Selex-ES subsidiary—its own infra-red search-and-track system and a 1,088-TRM (transmit-receive module) AESA-MMR with 110km-range, which are two of the four primary items not approved for technology transfer by the United States.

Earlier, at the request of Seoul’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), Lockheed Martin had agreed to consult with the US government over the transfer of four more technologies related to the active electronically scanned radar (AESA), electro-optical targetting pod, infra-red search-and-track systems, and a radio frequency jammer. However, the US refused to approve this request, and instead approved only 21 of the required 25 technologies for export by Lockheed Martin.

In 2016, the DAPA had stated that South Korea will domestically develop some 90 items necessary for the KF-X, including the AESA-MMR and the Electro-Optical Targetting Pod (EO-TGP). According to Hanwha Systems' R & D Center, it is currently working on at least six systems which will compose the backbone of the KF-X: the AESA-MMR; EO-TGP; Mission Computer; Infra-red Search & Track System (IRST); Panoramic Multi-Function Display; and an Audio Communication Control System (ACCS). LIGNex1 is now in the midst of a three-year project to develop its own AESA-MMR, known as the Laser-A, which is claimed to have more TRMs than its competitor and a 120km range.

The state-funded Agency for Defense Development, or ADD, and Hanwha Systems (formerly Samsung-Thales) had joined hands in 2016 to build an indigenous AESA-MMR. In May 2017, Israel’s ELTA Systems was selected by the ADD to support the AESA-MMR’s development. Under a contract valued at about $36 million, ELTA Systems is in charge of testing the AESA-MMR in every phase of development and integrating it with the KF-X prototype. The ADD originally wanted to get AESA-MMR technology either from Saab of Sweden or Thales of France, but the plan got ruptured due to the issues of requirements and budget. Saab had been a partner for the exploratory development of AESA-MMR in partnership with the ADD and LIG Nex1. Saab still has a $25 million contract inked in December 2017 with LIG Nex1 for cooperation in AESA-MMR algorithm development.

KAI’s final-assembly-cum-integration facility in Sacheon plans to roll-out the first KF-X prototype in the first quarter of 2021, followed by the maiden flight in 2022, with series-production of 120 KF-Xs commencing in 2026 to begin replacing the ROKAF’s existing F-4E Phantoms and F-5E Tiger IIs.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s DAPA has announced that 20 more Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II JSFs worth $3.35 billion will be procured under the second phase of its F-X3 project, due to be launched in 2021, when deliveries of the first batch of 40 are scheduled to be completed. These 40 original F-35As were ordered for the ROKAF in 2014, and deliveries began in March 2019. Eight have now been delivered, and the ROKAF expects to have 13 by the end of the year and 26 by the end of 2020.

KF-X Milestones

In January 2013, the state-owned Agency for Defense Development (ADD) unveilled a twin-engined conceptual model of the KF-X, based on the C-103 design. The ADD then estimated that $5.6 billion would be needed to develop the KF-X, and an additional $7.5 billion will have to be spent to build 120 units, while the government-owned Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning estimated that the developmental costs alone would be $8.8 billion.

In March 2015, KAI was selected as the preferred bidder/prime industrial contractor. KAI had partnered with the Lockheed Martin, and was competing against the team of Korean Air Lines (KAL) and Airbus Defense and Space.

In January 2016, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, or DAPA, officially launched the KF-X procurement programme.

In May 2016, DAPA selected GE Aero Engines to power the KF-X with its F414-GE-400 turbofans.

Between June 26 and June 28, 2018 the DAPA held a preliminary design review, or PDR, of the KF-X’s design C-109.

In early September 2019, the DAPA in a critical design review, or CDR, examined nearly 400 kinds of technical data to see if the technologies meet the capability requirements for the larger C-109 design of the KF-X, which has 12,000 blueprints in all. This milestone was achieved through assistance provided by more than 100 local agencies, including 84 companies, 16 tertiary institutions, and 11 research institutes. Another 35 companies will be involved when series-production commences. KAI has hired 700 employees to work on the KF-X programme and is seeking to recruit an additional 400 people to work on the project. Following this, approval was accorded for the KF-X programme to enter the prototype development phase, or PDP. As per the C-109 design, the KF-X will have a MTOW of 25,600kg and a maximum weapons payload of 7,700kg, maximum cruise speed of Mach 1.8 and a cruising distance of 2,900km. The KF-X’s Block-I variant will not have internal weapons carriage capability, which is now planned for subsequent production blocks. The Block-1 variant will also lack air-to-ground strike capability, since the homegrown long-range, subsonic air-to-ground cruise missile will be developed only by the mid-2020s by LIG Nex1. The Hanwha-developed AESA-MMR is scheduled to be tested on an actual KF-X prototype in 2023 with the goal of completing all aspects of development by 2026. The KFX development programme envisages the production of six prototypes by 2021, followed by four years of trials and the completion of development by mid-2026.

KAI selected the US-based Triumph Group to provide Airframe-Mounted Accessory Drives (AMAD) for the KF-X. Triumph will design and produce the AMADs, which will allow the aircraft to receive and distribute engine power to generators, pumps and other systems.

KAI selected US-based Textars to develop the canopy and windshield transparencies.

KAI selected UK-based Oxley Group to develop the full external lighting system. Oxley will supply the landing light, taxi light, refuelling lights, formation lights, wingtip lights, and an intelligent lighting controller. The system provides complete integration into the pilot’s panoramic AMLCD. The technical development process will cover design, prototyping, testing and manufacture, and be completed by a dedicated project team of mechanical, optical, electronics and software engineers at the Priory Park site in Cumbria.

KAI contracted Cobham Antenna Systems to provide the conformal antenna suite, which has been designed to provide a full range of communications, navigation and identification (CNI) functionality for the KF-X in a configuration that reduces drag and life-cycle repair costs, while improving aerodynamics. Cobham has also been contracted to supply an undisclosed number of missile eject launcher (MEL) units for KF-X by the end of 2020.

Canada-based Héroux-Devtek has been contracted by Hanwha to jointly develop the landing gear system for the KF-X. Engineering, testing and qualification will be performed at the OEM’s engineering facilities located in Runcorn, UK, and St-Hubert, Quebec, Canada.

US-based Collins Aerospace Systems, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp, has been contracted by KAI to provide the KF-X’s complete Environmental Control System (ECS), including air conditioning, bleed air control, cabin pressurization and liquid cooling systems. To help make the ECS easier to install and maintain, Collins Aerospace has integrated the air conditioning and liquid cooling systems into a single pack to reduce size and weight. In addition to the ECS, Collins Aerospace is also providing the engine start system components, including the air turbine starter and flow control valve. The KF-X will also be the first combat aircraft to host Collins Aerospace’s newest, more electric Variable Speed Constant Frequency (VSCF) generator.

Hanwha Systems has been contracted to develop and supply the Auxiliary Power Unit, Landing Gear, Cockpit Canopy, Air Command & Control System, AESA-MMR, Mission Computer, Panoramic AMLCD-based Multifunction Display, IRST sensor and EO-TG Pod. LIG Nex1 has been contracted for developing and supplying the Flight Control Computer, Flight Data Recorder, Integrated Electronic Warfare Suite, Radar Altimeter, Heads-Up Display, and the U/VHF Radio Suite. FIRSTEC will supply the Cockpit Control Panel, Flight Control Panel and Fire-Suppression System, while KAES will supply the Power Generator, KOKAM the NiCad Battereries, Doosan Mottrol the Hydraulic Pump, and AeroMaster the Remote Interface Unit.