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Monday, January 9, 2017

A Not-So-Silent War

The mystery surrounding the alleged interception of an Indian Navy (IN) diesel-electric submarine (SSK) on November 16 last year by a Pakistan Navy (PN) P-3C Orion LRMR/ASW aircraft can at last be resolved, thanks to the arrival in Malaysia of a Type 039G1 Song-class SSK (of the South Sea Fleet’s 32nd Submarine Flotilla located at Zhangjiang naval base in Guangdong province) and its accompanying ocean salvage & rescue ship, the Type 925-class Chang Xingdao 861 (of the North Sea Fleet’s 1st Combat Support Flotilla), which docked at the Royal Malaysian Navy’s submarine base at Sepanggar Bay in Sabah from January 3 till 7 for picking up perishable supplies and for their crew complements to rest after conducting anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia.
From the above, it can safely be deduced that the Type 039G1 Song-class SSK left its homeport in the South China Sea sometime in mid-October last year accompanied by Chang Xingdao 861 and the Type 054A FFG Handan 579 (built by the Huangpu-based Wenchong Shipbuilding Co Ltd and commissioned on August 16, 2015 with the PLAN’s North Sea Fleet) . These three vessels would surely have been trailed first by the US Navy right up to the Indonesian archipelago, following which an Indian Navy Type 877EKM SSK hailing from either the 8th or 11th Submarine Squadron (homeported at INS Virbahu in Visakhapatnam under the Eastern Naval Command) would have trailed them right up to the western part of the Indian Ocean, following which the trailing would have been continued by a  Class 209/Type 1500 SSK of the 10th Submarine Squadron (homeported at INS Bajrabahu in  Mumbai under the Western Naval Command). 
Interestingly, while the PN officially announced on November 16 in its official website that a PLAN Flotilla including the Chang Xingdao 861 and Handan 579 had arrived Karachi on a goodwill visit to Pakistan and would later take part in the 4th PN-PLAN bilateral exercise encompassing harbour and sea phases, the announcement kept quiet about the presence of the Type 039G1 Song-class SSK.
Instead, the PN made a big song-and-dance about an ‘unidentified’ IN SSK being tracked by a PN P-3C Orion since November 12 in international waters south of Karachi, and ultimately culminating in the IN SSJ ‘being forced to snorkel’ some 40nm outside Pakistan’s territorial waters. And this narrative was further spin-woven to showcase the PN’s mastery in undersea warfare against its Indian counterpart. In reality, what transpired was that the IN’s Class 209/Type 1500 SSK had already completed its assigned task (and therefore had no need to stay hidden) after handing over its flotilla shadowing tasking to another Class 209/Type 1500 SSK that had remained undetected in the same area and was subsequently successful (along with a P-8I LRMR/ASW aircraft) in monitoring the 4th PN-PLAN bilateral exercise in the northern Arabian Sea. 
Therefore, the presence of a PN P-3C Orion (which was sent to escort the inbound PLAN flotilla to Karachi) over the snorkeling IN Class 209/Type 1500 SSK in international waters was a mere coincidence, and was not by design by any stretch of imagination.   
The number of PLAN submarine sorties has approximately quadrupled over the last seven years, with an average of 12 patrols being conducted each year between 2008 and 2015, following on from six in 2007, two 2006 none in 2005. In the Indian Ocean region (IOR), the PLAN has so far carried out six submarine patrols (all accompanied by Type 925/Type 926 submarine tenders), with the submarines being kept its vessels out at sea for 95 days during each patrol. 
The PLAN’s first SSN patrol within the IOR lasted from December 3, 2013 till February 12, 2014. One Type 093 Shang-class boat left Longpo its bastion at Yulin on December 3. Ten days later, on December 13, the SSN reached the Gulf of Aden via the Ombai Wetar Strait near Indonesia. It remained on patrol in the area for nearly two months. Next to follow was the Type 039G1 Song-class SSK ‘Great Wall 329’ of the South Sea Fleet’s 32nd Submarine Flotilla, which later docked at the China-funded Colombo International Container Terminal in Sri Lanka from September 7 to 14, 2014 along with the Type 925-class tender Changxingdao 861. This was followed by a patrol of a Type 093 SSN from December 13, 2014 to February 14, 2015. After its two-month escort mission in the pirate-infested waters of the Gulf of Aden, this SSN returned to its base in Qingdao, Shandong province in April. Next came a S-20/Type 041A Yuan-class SSK 335 from the North Sea Fleet’s 2nd Submarine Flotilla that docked at Pakistan’s Karachi port on May 22, 2015, and was accompanied by the submarine tender Chang Xingdao 861. These two vessels had set sail from Hainan Island on March 31.
In January 2016 a Type 093 SSN was reportedly lurking in waters around the Andaman Sea. The vessel was in international waters and the IN’s P-8Is conducted specific ASW sorties over the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. This SSN was accompanied by three warships that were part of the anti-piracy task force on duty off the coast of Africa, which returned to China after a four month deployment. Yu Manjiang, deputy chief of staff of the PLAN’s South China Sea Fleet, was the commanding officer of this flotilla. On its return journey, the flotilla was docked in Colombo, Sri Lanka, from January 17 to January 21. The anti-piracy escort force departed from the Gulf of Aden on January 3 and first headed for Pakistan. Colombo was its second stop, which was followed by a stopover at Chittagong, Bangladesh on a five-day goodwill visit in late January. Two of these warships (not the SSN) then arrived in India for the international fleet review on February 6/7 at Vishakapatnam. The flotilla comprised the Type 054A guided-missile frigates Liuzhou 573 and Sanya 574 of the South Sea Fleet, and a replenishment tanker, Qinghaihu 885. The Sanya 574 and Qinghaihu 885 arrived at Laem Chabang Port, Thailand, on February 17, 2016 for a five-day goodwill visit. This flotilla returned to a military port in Sanya on the morning of March 8, 2016, after completing 218-day missions and traveling nearly 90,000 nautical miles.
A Type 093 Shang-class SSN (SSN-409) was placed at Karachi in May 2016 with Type 925 submarine tender Yongxingdao 863 of the South Sea Fleet. A month later (June 2016) it was crossing through the Malacca Straits off the coast of Singapore along with Yun Cheng 571 FFG of the South Sea Fleet’s 1st Frigate Group.
From this, it can be deduced that in the years to come, the PLAN will continue with this practice of launching at the very least two annual long-distance patrols—one each by an SSN and SSK—into the IOR. Entry while remaining submerged into the IOR from either the South China Sea or the Pacific Ocean will be made through either the Lombok Strait or the Ombai Wetar Straits astride Indonesia. To logistically support such long-range deployments, China plans to build 18 to 19 overseas strategic supply bases in Djibouti, Yemen, Omen, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles and Madagascar. In Namibia, China plans to build a naval supply base at Walvis Bay.
The Babur-3 SLCM Bakwaas Exposed 
On January 9, 2017 the following press-release was released by Pakistan’s ISPR (and curiously not from the PN):

From the contents of this press-release, it can safely be deduced that the cruise missile, a member of the Hatf-7 family, has a wingspan of 3.1 metres, length of 6 metres, diameter of 0.514 metres, and a mass of 900kg. Range of this SLCM has been claimed to be 450km, although it can attain 600km when carrying a 300kg warhead. The press-release’s contents need to be dissected, since they provide some pretty interesting insights into what is really at play here.
Firstly, it has been claimed that the maiden test-firing of the Babur-3 SLCM was conducted from an underwater, mobile platform that was located at an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean. This test-firing, hailed as a 100% successful effort, was witnessed by the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Zubair Mahmood Hayat, DG Strategic Plans Division (SPD) Lieutenant General Mazhar Jamil, and the Commander Naval Strategic Force Command (NSFC). Notable absentees from this event were the PN’s Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Muhammad Zakaullah, and Shahid Nabeel, Chairman of the National Engineering and Science Commission (NESCOM)—a state-owned entity that owns the National Defence Complex, the industrial entity that has reportedly the Hatf-7/Babur family of cruise missiles. Short video-clips of this alleged test-firing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rILN-oEvlec) showed a cruise missiles breaking a water surface and adopting a shallow trajectory in elevation (meaning it was launched from a torpedo-tube and not a VLS cell), then cruising over land and finally hitting its designated target area somewhere in the vicinity of Balochistan’s central Makran mountain range.
Now, if the Babur-3 was indeed launched from a SSK belonging to the PN—and the PN has only three Agosta 90B and two Agosta 70B SSKs all of which are equipped with the THALES-supplied SUBTICS combat management system—then the fire-control system servers required for computing and transmitting the firing solution for/to the encapsulated Babur-3 would have to be integrated with the SUBTICS and the 533mm torpedo launch-tubes. This is an impossible task, given the fact that THALES does not share the operating source-codes of thre SUBTICS’ fire-control algorithms with anyone. Secondly, for the Babur-3 to have been fired from anywhere in the IOR and for the SLCM to reach Baluchistan, NOTAMs would have had to be issued at least 10 days in advance for clearly identifying the flight-path trajectory and cruising altitude for both airmen and merchant mariners. This was NOT done. Thirdly, as the video-clip shows, the test-firing was initiated from a submerged vehicle in calm waters (i.e. shallow waters), following which the SLCM cruised over a vast landmass, meaning the Babur-3’s entire flightpath was well within Pakistan’s territorial; waters and airspace. Lastly, the PN does not possess any naval vessel equipped with long-range precision-tracking radars, which is a prerequisite for any navy that is involved in test-firing land-attack cruise missiles from locations in the deep seas. Therefore, all this brings us to only one conceivable conclusion:
The test-firing was initiated from a submerged Type 093 Shang-class SSN (that had possibly left its homeport at Yulin in Hainan Island in the third week of December 2016) located well inside Pakistan’s territorial waters, and the SLCM fired was of 100% Chinese origin. And the video-clip of the test-firing was obviously edited and spliced to give the impression that the Babur-3 followed a text-book flightpath over land. This alleged westward flightpath first along Pakistan’s coastline and then into western Balochistan was showcased to give the impression that the flightpath was ideal for the NESCOM’s missile trajectory-tracking sensors located at the Sonmiani Flight Test Range in Sindh province. All this also ties in well with the Naval Strategic Force Command’s  inauguration in 2012, and the commissioning of a VLF communications facility—PNS Hameed—on November 15, 2016.
But the far more realistic probability is that of a Type 093 Shang-class SSN firing the SLCM not anywhere in the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean (since even China had not issued the mandatory NOTAM whenever missile-firing drills are to be conducted over international waters, apart from the fact that any such test-firing would be considered as being highly provocative), but in the Bohai Sea sometime in the past, and not on January 9. This ties in perfectly well with the gray-colour scheme of the SLCM, which is the same colour adopted by all LACMs (like the K/AKD-20) and SLCMs in service with the PLA Navy. 
The Hatf-7/Babur family of LACMs on the other hand have always sported a bright orange colour-scheme whenever they have been test-fired. 

92 comments:

Pierre Zorin said...

Pakistan defence lies in dismantling its military - which is an irony considering every country builds its military to defend itself. Once Pakistan starts afresh with democratic values and its military does what it is supposed to do then a soft border and de-escalation of tension as well as economic prosperity is possible. Sadly this is a pipedream because the entire objective of Pakistan's existence is Indo-specific. Even if Kashmir were to secede and join Pakistan then they will raise Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat issues because that is the only way its oligarchic military shifts focus off itself and its merry ways, keeps its citizens bound to middle age thinking and consolidate its political objectives at the expense of ordinary hapless people. Pakistan should NEVER have happened and Nehru and his dynasty grabbed power much the same way as PA. Until the world aligns against this pariah, malevolent state and its China/North Korea handlers news is very dire indeed.

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Great article. Seems like IN spooked PN and PLA N simultaneously.This is in a way to convey that we know you are here. Imagine how the Captain of Chinese nuclear sub would have felt when he discovered that he was being watched all along. LoL.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VED: VMT. Actually, anyone discerning enough would have raised eyebrows when the PN press-release revealed the existence of a submarine tender in the visiting flotilla, but did not mention any submarine at all. Similarly, such submarine tenders have always accompanied both SSKs & SSNs of the PLAN whenever they've ventured out of their territorial waters--a practice no other navy follows. This can only mean that the PLAN has serious reservations about the seaworthiness of its fleet of submarines in the high seas & that too on long-range deployments & therefore always brings along such submarine tenders as a precaution. Needless to say, such surface vessels therefore don;t need SSKs or SSNs to do the stalking, since MR/ASW aircraft or even UAVs can do so from the air. Only when a submarine diving tender is accompanied by a SSK or SSN that underwater stalking with SSKs or SSNs is called for. That's what this incident was all about.

rad said...

hi prasun
drdo is taking its own sweet time compounded with blame gaming each other regrading nirbhay. Its alreday 14 years gone. Instead of waiting for these arse holes to get the design right i t would be prudent to buy a couple of 100 klaibr missiles as a stop gap as we have entered the MCTR regime.?

if 60% of the brahmos is made by russia is it not prudent to reverse engineer the stuff that comes from there, so as to be self sufficient at the tech level?.

financeblogger said...

I am re-posting my question from previous thread.

In reply to DAS, you have mentioned that Chinese economy may go into deep recession. What time frame (e.g. 1 year down the line) are you looking at?


Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
I am sure some key acoustic data of Chinese nuclear subs have now become part of the IN database.

When the routes of navigation is predictable you loose the element of surprise. Hence I believe Chinese are trying to have permanent replinishment and submarine bases in Srilanka and Pakistan.

Is this the reason behind India signing LEMOA and BECA agreement with US? Tit for tat and enemy of my enemy is my friend. What's your view?



Vijay said...


Dear Sir

You have written the following in the previous thread

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why even the US is now studying in great detail how exactly India since 2010 has gotten rid of the ‘One China’ policy? Why hasn’t China been able to raise new permanently deployed military formations anywhere inside TAR for high-altitude warfare against India even though TAR hosts excellent transportation infrastructure? Why is China seemingly unwilling to bail out Sri Lanka out of the latter’s economic woes?

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Could you please explain this ; I think there are other readers too would like some
more elaboration of this point

lachit said...

hey, prasun interesting times and talk about coincidence

porkistan test fired a SLCM , i am wondering about the launch platform

Agosta 90B comes to mind but is doubtful according to me because modifications would require french permission and help

what about chinese submarine like the Song-class SSK , porkis must have tested it from the sub with chinese help , recorded the test fire and released it officially now, hoping nobody would be wiser .

whats ur take on this

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear prasun

1) You mentioned before that China will go into deep recession. Are there any impending signs that point to this happening soon?

2) Considering the p800 oniks was designed as an AShM with 550km range what is stopping the IN from getting a 550km range brahmos for anti shipping activities?

3) Time frame for induction of Brahmos NG?

4) What AShM do our tu 142 and IL 38 use?

5) Can MPA like p8i neptune and tu 142 provide targeting data for brahmos attack from ships?

6) Any plans on equipping ships other than ins vikramaditya and p15a and p15b with Barak 8?

7) Any chance we will be replacing the shtil on talwar class with some VLS SAM soon?

8) Will Admiral grigorovich that we have ordered from Russia have VLS Shtil 1?

9) Time frame for induction of Admiral grigorovich class?

10) What is the range at which frigate sized surface targets can be identified for OTHT from IN seaking helis?

Anonymous said...

http://indianexpress.com/article/world/babur-3-salient-features-of-pakistans-nuclear-capable-submarine-cruise-missile-4466855/

want a great detail in explanation about this R&D designer & manufacturer and is it remains with PA?

Regards
Ron

lachit said...

prasun do have a look at the porky SLCM video

it seems it has ruhanni camouflage system fitted to it.

when it comes out of water it is not red,
when it is cruising the missile is sporting red color
when it approaches the target it again looses its red color

optical illusion ?
or stupid ISPR video editor ?

ur opinion on this

Anup said...

Dear Sir,
Excellent article.
In Syria ISIL used ATGM to destroy L-39. They don't have any security to protect Aircrafts?

Unknown said...

Sir, going a bit off topic here, but I have a few questions for you.

Does the Surya missile actually exist?

What might be the declared and actual range of Agni 6?

Will the Agni family continue after the 6th missile?

On a scale of 5, what would you rate the Indian defence industry when it comes to self reliance both in design, engineering as well as manufacturing?

bhoutik said...

* the kolkata imam issuing bounty against the PM - will he be arrested like he should?

* reports circulating that china is blocking Project Mausam. your views - how much of an escalation is this and, in response, what could/should Indian steps be

* regarding vietnam - how far should India go towards enabling them militarily? what would your ideal scenario be?

* what are India's satellite tracking & monitoring capabilities? and your thoughts on where they are & where they should be now and in the near future

neXoft said...

Just a Babur with reduced fuselage in order to fit insise the torpedo tube of Agosta. Total length of Babur SLCM is 5.9m instead of the regular 6.25m Babur LACM. The penalty is 250km. And there was pontoon test which proves its a readymade chinese missile

Rahul said...

Dear Sir

Your new Article has Perfect Timing

Just today the Pakis have fired a New Chinese Missile SLCM

It looks like the culmination of a build up of the events of last several weeks
as has been described by you

Akhil said...

Prasun sir excillent article once again. Please tell us about the details of project super sukhoi. Once you tell us that all delayes are on part of DRDO lab. Is there any further updates or any progress. Thanks vey much.

bhoutik said...

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/chinas-race-to-dominate-space/ ---- mentioned here that the facility at Patagonia, Argentina (coordinates: 38.1914°S, 70.1495°W) is a tracking, telemetry, and command center run by a PLA unit with accomodations for PLA personnel. is this accurate?

Prateek said...

Sir,
1) when will induction of atags start? An article in the hindu said 2022-24..
If the gun is coming on well, then why would it still take 5 years?
2) is a naval version of atags planned.. Probably in 62 cal?
3) will dhanush & atags co-exist?
4) is an mgs version of atags planned..if no..what is the time required to get it ready?
5) could atags be converted to sph?
6) when will construction of p17a start? Why the delay..specially when 2 p15b have already been launched..
With the first to be commissioned next year.

Pierre Zorin said...

To Unknown: Like your letter to a Minister is answered here is a copy:
PKS thanks you for your message and questions and he has asked me to reply on his behalf: Sourya missile did exist and had a test flight before the project being mothballed. Please check previous threads regarding this topic.
Regarding Agni please see the previous thread.
Not in its current form - but with MIRV and composite materials.
1.5 as there is no uniformity, QC supervision, most importantly when a country auto selects DPSUs for everything without any competitive assessment there is purely no incentive or market for private concerns.

What sayest thou Prasun?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LACHIT et All: Have just uploaded the narrative on the Babur-3. It will answer most of your questions. Indeed several interesting things are happening, especially in our neighbourhood. For instance, the 4 Pakistani social activists who always campaign for missing persons have now themselves gone missing, presumed to be abducted by either the ISI or followers of Hafiz Saeed/Masood Azhar.

To PRATEEK: Let me quote an anology: R & D work on the EMB-145I AEW & CS project commenced in 2004. Only later this month will the first of 3 EMB-145Is be delivered to the IAF. Work on Dhanush-45 began in 2008. Deliveries will start only this year. That should give you a good idea of when exactly the ASTAGS enter the bulk production phase.

ShibRam said...

Prasunda, Pakistani press coined sunni coalition forces as Islamic NATO. Few days ago amuslim cleric projected an idea of creating an Islamic UN.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/08/former-pakistan-army-chief-raheel-sharif-lead-muslim-nato. What u think sir, Syria like situation will led to world war in future.

Raman said...


Thanks for the update on the so-called Pakistani SLCM/Babur 3.......the Pakistani's must think that the world is full of fools to believe their ISPR story.......or this is just for their domestic audience/playing catch up with India.

Rahul said...

So this Test was just a DEMO for the Pakis

The Pakis are spending 4 billion USD of their AID money for
New Submarines

The Pakis need to be convinced that these Chinese Rust Buckets can fire these SLCMs

Anonymous said...

what will be global response for this PAK alleged submarine launched cruise missile especially from middle east,Isarael and USA?

Regards
Ron

rad said...

hi prasun
great Analysis of the Babur chink missile . soon they will be firing from surface ships and call it BARBER-4 !!!!

Is it possible for pak to fire a chink missile in manual mode by bypassing the subtics CMS and inputting the gps co ordinates only and firing from torpedo tubes? i think that should be possible .

It would be impossible for the porki to fire a missile without Chinese engineers on board.Any way the chinese engineers would have got a close look and performance details of the french sub as a quid pro for the 8 subs it is getting from china .They would have laid bare all her secrets like a prostitute to china to incorporate all its features . They would have done that?.

Has work started on the indian nuke SSN killers? will it be a different assembly line and what would be the design based on ?> i assume we cant go forward without the t he hand holding o f the russians?

about the emb -145 , have they got all the algorithms right ? Is the IAF happy? .Of course we always have the phalcon to compare performance . what ever happened to the A330 awacs. Has france agreed to build the radome ?. Who is going to build the radome .Will russia help?. In case, will boeing help as they have done it for the Japanese awacs based on a 767 platform given todays bonhomie?

Is it not prudent to have second line small cost effective awacs like the emb-145 which is cheaper ,smaller and less expensive to fly and maintain and most importantly easier to hide in a shelter .?

Lastly why on earth should malaysia host a nuke sub fron china ?, because of the dispora? or scared?

Pawan said...

Dear Prasunji

Your this blog post has been republished on defensenews.in :)

http://www.defencenews.in/article/Pakistans-lie-of-detecting-Indian-Nuclear-Submarine-exposed---Read-On-249795

Sir, Do you have any info about rumours that upcoming K-4 test is of longer ranger variant. Some claims that K-4 would tested for 5000+ range?

Regards,
Pawan

Brijesh said...

so it sounds like a high school math exam question: EMB started in 2004 and only the first will be handed this month 2017 - a total of 12 years 1 month. When will the last of the three be delivered? (25 marks)
If Dhanush 45 began in 2008 deliveries will start this year (9 years)when will ATAGS enter the bulk production? (35 marks)
Thus, you can see that Indian defence honchos assume that they can hit the pause button on world affairs so every adversary like a bowler in cricket will wait until the batsman is ready! By the time ATAGS is delivered IA will have to buy something new because the world would have changed and the product would be yesterday's vintage. Blimey!

Anonymous said...

I have a simple question, As per you there were 2 IN subs in the region but as per IN press conference on the issue, the statement said no IN sub was in the region. IS IN LYING?
regards,
SJ

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: VMT.Regarding Nirbhay, you must be referring to this:

The probe committee led by founder director of ISRO Inertial Systems Unit Dr Nagarajan Vedachalam will not only ascertain the faults but also recommend possible measures to make the system robust. Like in its maiden trial and third test, the missile had veered off the trajectory minutes after take off and during the last launch the mission had to be aborted mid-air. An official associated with the project, however, informed that the blame game between two laboratories of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) cost the project more than the faults in the system. While Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), which has designed the missile, has been blaming Research Centre Imarat (RCI) for supplying defective hardware, the latter points fingers at ADE-developed software for recurring failure of the missile. ‘’The probe committee will ascertain which is defective, the software or hardware. It may also inspect metallurgical deficiencies,’’ the sources said.

Now, regarding bypassin g the SUBTICS CMS, well, that's impossible because GPS gives only locational coordinates. For any weapons l;aunch, one requires a direct connection to the inertial navigation system using ring laser gyros. And this RLG-INS is integrated with the SUBTICS & cannot be bypassed. Even if a standalone RLG-INS is used only for weapons release, how will this RLG-INS interface & synchronise with the RLG-INS of SUBTICS? So, without such data on the stabilisation of the platform (submarine), it is impossible to adjust the horizontal/vertical attitude of the missile-launch fire-control system & without this any data pertaining to the horizontal/vertical attitude of the SLCM cannot be uploaded on to the SLCM's on-board RLG-INS & mission computer. Therefore, it is physically impossible to bypass the closed-loop fire-control sequence that always begins at the CMS (SUBTICS in this case) & no miracles happen in this domain. In fact, I will go as far as to say that the video-clip of the test-firing may not even have taken place anywhere in South Asia, & may instead have been carried out in the Bohai Sea, since the ISPR was too shy to release even photographs of this test-firing--a most unlikely phenomenon when Pakistan has always officially released photos of almost all previous ballistic/cruise missile firings, especially maiden launch attempts.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SJ: No, the IN wasn't lying at all. What the IN had stated that its submarines were never operating inside Pakistan's territorial waters not did they have any intention of doing so in peacetime, as had been alleged by the PN. Here's the report:

The Navy on November 18, 2016 rejected Pakistan's claim that it had detected and prevented an Indian submarine from entering its territorial waters, even as defence officials here said Islamabad had also taken to making "fanciful statements" about inflicting heavy casualties among Indian soldiers in cross-border firings. "Pakistan navy's statement is a blatant lie. None of our boats are in that area," said Indian Navy spokesperson Captain D K Sharma. This came after a Pakistan navy spokesperson, in a statement issued in Karachi, said: "The Indian Navy, in order to fulfil its nefarious designs, was deploying submarines. The Pakistan Navy, alert and using its extreme skill, prevented Indian submarines from entering Pakistani waters." "Pakistan navy fleet units detected the presence of Indian submarines in the southern parts of Pakistani waters ... and restricted their activity," he said, adding that the Indian submarines were "constantly pursued and pushed back".

To PAWAN: VMT. No, the K-4 SLBM cannot go that far.

To RON: Global response? There are already close to 50 warships of the US & other NATO member-states in both the Persian Gulf & Arabian Sea. All the more reason why no SLCM test-firing cannot be conducted away from prying eyes in the deep seas like the Indian Ocean. Instead, the test-firing is bound to have taken place from a coastal area.

To SHIBRAM: This has already caused consternation inside Pakistan, since no one there really believes that the Arab Muslims will relinquish full military command & control to a non-Arab Muslim. At most, therefore, the ex-COAS of the PA will serve as glorified & ceremonial Chief Staff Officer.

Sankhadeep Mazumder said...

Thanks for the reply. Can you give me the links for the articles on Surya missile? Also, in brief, why was it scuttled and when?

Aloquik said...

Sirji
Your views on this... we must approach US for this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3SMs_IR1vc

Deepanjan said...

Sir,
Happy New Year
I have been following your blog for a long time- I love you explanations with the technical details.
Please carryon the excellent reportage.

Regards
Deepanjan

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada
Throw some light on following
1. The 45 nos. squadron that IAF keep on demanding from government. Since with induction of Brahmos and other missiles and specially SAMs, should not this no come down.
2. How realistically Government and IAF are pursuing the same and in very near future should not a review of the same to.be carried out whether we really need so.much squadrons.
3. Till what time it is possible to achieve the 45 nos. Squardons

safriz said...

https://twitter.com/shaheenmissile/status/818729911737339904

Yours arguments are self contradictory. First you say that Pakistan has no tracking and telemetry arrangements on Balochistan coast from where the Missile was launched,then you go on to say that there are Tracking and telemetry stations at sonminai which is on Balochistan coast in the same area where missile was tested.
Also you say that it is impossible for Pakistan to incorporate new weapon systems in Agosta submarines. Let me remind you that currently Pakistan is the only country in the world licensed by DCN to build the submarine and has all the expertise and equipment available in Karachi. Since DC ceased manufacturing of Agosta,the whole tech was transfered to Pakistan with license to expot if any orders come.
Also you say that Agosta fire control system is locked by firmware and no changes can be made. Thats is wrong as the SUBTICS system is written in Sun Java and run on Solaris OS and has ethernet protocols ,and are fully re-programmable . That;s why Pakistan opted for the system.

Anonymous said...

Dear Prasun,
i believe IN/PN are saying the same thing,
The Navy on November 18, 2016 rejected Pakistan's claim that it had detected and prevented an Indian submarine from entering its "territorial waters" (Automatically means intercept was in international waters as it stopped entering territorial waters).
IN said
“Indian Navy categorically denies the statement of Pakistani Navy as blatant lies,” by adding that the Indian Navy did not have any under water movement in the said waters as claimed by the Pakistani Navy”
Hence IN says no movement of subs was in international waters near pakistan.
Then you say it was 2 subs in the region....... and you say that IN sub being at snorkel was traced by PC3.
A lot of confusion........
Regards,
SJ

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

If you look at the history of the Islamic Empires, they have on regular basis outsourced defence to outsiders. This is how Turks became muslims. The Mamluks. The Berbers. The Korshani's (current afghanistan + Pak areas). Rajputs and Jats from India. The Albanians. The Tarters. Have all earned their wages from various Islamic Empires.

The qatari and bahraini forces today are 70% ex-PA, including officers. Saudi have been recruiting many ex-PA as well. They want to be allowed to recruit in large numbers (4-6 Div worth). There is a big push against this in Pakistan. They do not want to get sucked into Shia-Sunni war. Thats why you are getting negative press on Saudi/Arab. Also Iran is quietly leading the media war against Arabs in Pakistan. There is a big vacuum in ME now, waiting for India to get involved. It has the strength.

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear prasun

1) You had mentioned before that you were told way back in 1984 itself that Indian nuclear deterrent was to consist of 12 fission and 12 thermonuclear warheads. Any change in these numbers?

2) You also mentioned that we would keep more plutonium cores in reserve and the total plutonium in our reserve would be 3 tonnes? How many extra warheads, over and above the 24 would this allow us to build?

3) Rough yield of our warheads?

4) How many warheads do you estimate we have currently?

5) Compared to China isn't this just a nominal deterrent at best? I know China is aiming for US but will this puny number even be enough to penetrate Chinese BMD and land a single attack at least?

6) How long will it take India to launch an attack from our semi recessed state once the order has been given?

7) When will our SSBNs venture out with full complement of nuclear missiles on a regular basis like the US and Russia? (if at all)

Thanks

SUVO said...

GREAT article PRASUN DA.
What a fake country with fake boundaries,fake missile test etc. etc.etc....

Please throw some light on Nepal-India-China relationship.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SAFRIZ: You seem to be someone wholly ignorant about such subjects & to compound matters, you are unable to even understand English. There's a difference between coastal tracking sensors & sensors mounted on naval vessels. Secondly, the language of any OS can be re-programmed ONLY IF its source-codes are obtainable. And don't ever say that only Pakistan is licenced to manufacture submarines developed by DCNS. Do some homework & the truth will emerge. Nor was any Agosta 70B ever built from scratch by KSEW or anyone else. They were all assembled & both the steel supplies & steel-bending work originated from abroad. So leave alone the CMS, periscopes etc etc, not even the hull modules were fabricated by KSEW or by anyone else inside Pakistan.

youngbengal said...

Prasunda, another great analytical article. Your articles are always worth reading. At present amateurs are much better in analyzing an event than professional journalists. here are some works of amateurs reported by press http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/babur-3-missile-launch-video-fake-pakistan-nuclear-missile/1/853818.html . VMT

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Safriz : What about self contradictory statements by ISPR? Test without NOTAM? Suddenly color of missile changing from grey to red. Maybe color changing paint? LMAO. Are they making fool of themselves and poor Pakis?

Matlab kuch bhe pel do.

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun Sir,

How true is the below article:
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/pakistan-likely-to-acquire-chinese-nuclear-attack-submarines-ndtv-exclusive-1647370?pfrom=home-lateststories

Seems too far fetched that China will lease a nuclear submarine to Pakistan. Can China be this openly antagonist to India and if so what will be the repercussions of this.

As of now do we even have a chance to address the challenge called China. Russia is slipping away from India, China is blocking every move of India, and Pakistan is as blatant as ever. Seems pretty bleak year ahead. So many challenges.

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

safriz said...

NOTAM is not mandatory if a state is using it's own air space and can make alternative arrangements, such as asking aircrafts to keep away from a certain area via air traffic controller.
About color changing. The missile has red and white stripes, that's why it seemed to change color between red and white, depending on which side the camera is recording from.
So what's the issue here again?

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

What should be the counter measures for this New Chinese Missile
gifted to Pakistanis

Now would we need S 400 also on our Coast line

safriz said...

You have put approval requirements for my comments to be visible.
Remove that and we can have a discussion. Otherwise no point in wasting my time here

Arpit Kanodia said...

@safriz are u crazy? Not releasing NOTAM?

How you like to see a 900 kg missile ramming into Luftansa with 300 passengers onboard? And color, suddenly those grey color mysteriously gone in second part of video. Pak must invented some new paints. Great Acheivement.

And about wasting time, hilarious after your ego smashed into ground after this fake test, you came to this blog. Not the other way around.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: LoLz! This SAFRIZ fella obviously can’t tell the difference between the user of an operating software & software programming.

To YOUNGBENGAL: VMT. The video-clip wasn’t exactly a fake or CGI. Instead, it was a series of 3 different video-clips spliced together. All 3 video-clips were of earlier test-firings, with the clip of the launch being of Chinese origin, while the latter 2 were those of the Babur being test-fired from Sonmiani & showing it cruising over the Makran coastline & Balochistan.

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: 1) It should come down ONLY IF the IAF has all its combat aircraft capable of undertaking 3 sorties daily for 15 days without any need for major servicing. Right now that’s not the case. 2) It is an uphill task especially when one has large inventory of legacy aircraft of 1980s vintage. 3) I very much doubt that this target will ever be achieved.

To SANKHADEEP MAZUMDAR: I don’t have any links for any missile called Surya. Such a missile is a figment of imagination of Internet fanboys & it never existed in realty. The longest-range ballistic missile to be possessed by India will be the SLBMs, not ICBMs.

To SANJAY SHARMA: 1) I had already posted quite a number of YouTube weblinks before to illustrate this. The recession has already begun & that explains the proliferation of various ‘Ghost Cities’ throughout China. 2) And what assets will be used for target acquisition? The USSR during the Cold War used to possess a formidable number of surveillance vessels disguised as fishing trawlers for constantly shadowing hostile fleet movements. That’s why China too has created a People’s Naval Militia. Does India possess such assets? 3) Only by 2020. 4) None. 5) Yes. P-8I isn’t Neptune. The P-8A of the US Navy is. 6) The P-17A FFGs. 7) The VL version of Shtil-1. 8) Yes. But the warships haven’t been ordered as yet. 9) Unknown. 10) Depends on the cruising altitude of the helicopter. The higher it flies, the further away will be the horizon as per the laws of physics.

To FINANCEBLOGGER: China’s real economy has been in recession for the past 2 years.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SAFRIZ: Either you are a certified MORON, or you have the desperate wish for getting fucked-up by anyone who prefers to use commin-sense. Do you have any fucking idea how many airlines make daily use of the Makran airspace corridor while flying from South & Central Asia to various destinations along the Persian Gulf? Do you even know of the daily air-maintenance movements undertaken by the PA & PN in that area & why it is imperative for flight safety reasons to have deconfliction of flightpaths? Lastly, will anyone test-firing missiles give real-time updates to any civilian ATC controller about a missile’s flight trajectory so that this controller in turn issues real-time alerts to all airborne airliners at that time in that flight corridor? Do you expect this to be flawlessly achieved by any stretch of imagination? So just do us all a favour here & keep all your fucked-up mumbo-jumbo to yourself, since it is now crystal-clear that you are an uneducated entity with total disregard for any of the physical sciences. And try your bizarre conspiracy theories about colour-changing LACMs on those million of gullible imbeciles that throng the Madrassas of Pakistan, for your may find in them a far more receptive audience for your outrageous claims & explanations.

To VIJAY: Relax, it hasn’t been gifted as yet. The test-firing video was that of an earlier test-firing conducted inside China’s territorial waters. Read my last 2 paras & see the last two photos of this narrative above.

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: Like I said several times before, kindly refrain from digesting reports that contain ifs, coulds, buts, etc etc. The PLAN itself has no SSNs to spare since the Western Pacific will see a greater number of US Navy SSNs operating there as part of the US’ Pivot to Asia policy. Secondly, no SSN or SSGN on operational patrol will enter the IOR through the Malacca Strait. Why? Because under UNCLOS rules, all submarines transiting the Malacca Strait have to cruise in a surfaced manner. And when a submarine does this while on patrol, then the element of secrecy is totally lost. Submarines will therefore use the Malacca Strait only when the patrol is over & the mission has been accomplished, like the PLAN’s SSNs returning back to Hainan Island after completing their deployments in the IOR & Arabian Sea. And as the GoogleEarth image shows, the Type 093 SSN docked in Karachi was accompanied by a submarine diving tender, & wasn’t a large 10,000 ton fleet support and replenishment tanker at all. But of course, these ‘desi’ jack-of-all-trades journalists aren’t domain experts & hence they consistently fuck-up whenever reporting about such events.

Kambar said...

11) What will Tejas mk1a have instead of OBOGS? What is OBOGS used for? Does this mean Tejas mk1A pilots will have to regularly use emergency oxygen tanks instead of reserving them exclusively for emergency situations?

12) I like your idea of the Combat Hawk, but I think we need a bigger CAS plane. Like the M-346 with 2 F-124 turbofans (like upgraded Jaguar) or the FA-50 with the F-404 (like Tejas mk1). The Israelis chose the M-346 instead of the Hawk and the Hawk does not even meet the reqd specs for the USAF T-X competition. The KAI T-50 is actually very similar to the proposed LIFT Tejas. The FBW controls for Tejas and the T-50 must be very similar, based on Lockheed Martin's involvement. But the FA-50 has a better wing design for subsonic CAS missions.

13) How many Shang class SSNs will be built? How many are in service? How good are they compared to Akula? Can they sneak up on us, or can the P-8I safely detect them near Indonesia and neutralize them with torpedoes? Can the P-8I do the same for Qing-class subs?

14) Can the IN blockade the Lombok Strait and the Ombai Wetar Straits?

15) What does the IN urgently need to boost its ASW capbility? I don't think surface ships have enough protection against HWT torpedoes since they only have torpedo tubes and RBU-6000. Will the NMRH be able to kill enemy subs at standoff range from the main surface battle fleet?

16) Is the PLAN more experienced and proficient in underwater warfare than the IN? Will their Soviet underwater navy tactics be able to penetrate and destroy our surface fleet? Can our surface fleet even engage enemy SSNs?

Kambar said...

Also one more thing. You seem very confident that we can defeat the Paks due to how backwards their military is? Not that I doubt you but the Paks in the ISI and top echelons are very sneaky and are so evil that they would slaughter Hindu babies with their bare hands if they saw them. Once they get the SLCMs and SLBMs, I feel that all is lost. There would be a massive nuclear war and hundreds of millions of people will die. The people in the Pak nuke forces probably are psychopaths and have very twisted mentalities. They will certainly take the opportunity to kill 1 billion Indians even if that meant the entire annihilation of Pakistant.

The only way to stop this is if the P-8I can destroy the Qing and Yang class subs in Indonesia before they are transferred to Paks hands.

Kambar said...

Reposting since I think this got broken.

All your recent predictions are being lapped up by the desi presscorps have been rapidly plagiarizing your recent articles. You're very generous to let the presstitudes monetize your hard researched content!

http://idrw.org/pakistans-lie-of-detecting-indian-submarine-exposed/
http://idrw.org/the-iaf-fleet-needs-rejuvenating-and-needs-it-now/
http://idrw.org/defence-ministry-panel-recommends-review-of-deployment-pattern/
http://idrw.org/pakistan-likely-acquire-chinese-nuclear-attack-submarines-ndtv-exclusive/
http://idrw.org/indian-military-expert-sunk-pakistans-fake-nuclear-missile-test/

And could you answer my previous questions?:

1) Since the C-17s are all sold out, should we go for the A-400M? Why are there no jumbo turbo-prop jets like the A-400M that are for civilian passenger and cargo markets? Turbo-props are supposed to be more fuel efficient.

2) Is the MTA project dead? I thought MTA was about boosting our civilian-military aviation infrastructure, but now we would just be importing Il-214 planes. How should MoD proceed? Buying more C-130Js and then scrapping the MTA project?

3) Is it true that Avros are not used as workhorses but rather ferry officers on joy rides? If so, why should they be replaced? The recently upgraded An-32 fleet will last for a long time as it is.

4) Respectfully contrary to your opinion, ATAGS seems like a good project. OFB cannot produce many howitzers, so it is a good idea that OFB is delegating sub-systems to other firms. OFB will have trouble making more than 12 howitzers alone per annum, while we need around 60-100 new howitzers per annum. This can only be done with two production lines or if OFB does only final assembly.

5) Will DRDO partner with Ashok Leyland to make an MGS ATAGS system? An indigenous MGS should be very possible to make, so there is no reason for import abroad. Its as ridiculous Lt. Generals Shamsher Mehta's plan to import SP howitzers. Also the tracked howitzer idea is ridiculous. The cost of the K-9 is 300% the cost of an MGS ($800 million USD for 100 howitzers). Next army will want railway-mounted howitzers and dedicated gunships with chin-mounted howitzers like AC130.

Kambar said...


6) If Finmechanica is not going off the blacklist, does this imply that Finmechanica is guilty in the MoD's eyes?

7) Is the FICV project dead? What happened to the Abhay ICV and the Kestrel APC? Is the Army happy with the BMP-2 for the current requirements? I read somewhere that the BMP-2 has several armour weaknesses including near the main fuel tank and have heard first-hand reports of poor crew ergonomics from people on those machines.

8) Is Selex and CAPTOR AESA the only AESA with rotating backplates to improve corner detection range? Is this an actually operationally useful feature or is the software still too buggy to be useable in combat?

9) Is DRDO ARM missile a replication of SAAW's capabilities? Why waste time on this then?

10) For Tejas mk1A, you said portside pylon underside air intake will have LDP, while starboard side will have EW pod. However, the starboard side is where the gun is mounted, so did you mean centerline pylon underneath fuselage instead? Or will Tejas mk1A have 3 pylons underneath fuselage instead of 2 (meaning gun is moved to nose or wing?)? Will wing-tip pylons be possible to add on Tejas mk1A (minimal testing and all) to free up space?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAMBAR: LoLz! VMT for posting those weblinks. Yes, it does appear that this business has really taken off, especially when one reads this:

http://swarajyamag.com/defence/the-iaf-fleet-needs-rejuvenating-and-needs-it-now

And what spectacularly outrageous solutions are being proposed? This, for instance: "This does not mean that the “Combat Hawk” should be procured instead of the F-16/Gripen (or more Tejas) as a single-seat combat aircraft. Rather, it is suggested that a combination of the F-16/Gripen, Tejas and “Combat Hawk” be acquired to provide the combination required to fill the IAF’s requirements for single-engine light and single-engine medium combat aircraft."

And who exactly will foot the bill for such equally spectacularly outrageous 'combinations?
The article's author? And that too at a time when the GoI is now facing the prospect of having to offer an OROP package for the CAPFs, thanks to the viral video of Teg Bahadur of BSF's 29 Battalion now doing the rounds!!!

Watch this debate (surprisingly a very good one after a very long time) which thoroughly exposes how even the basic necessities of the foot-soldier from either the IA or the CAPFs are hard to come by even in this day & age:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24G2AQOYRHY&t=227s

Only after resolving such basic, down-to-earth problems should one address issues like L-MRCA, LPHs, NMRHs, ATAGS, SSNs, SSBNs, etc etc etc etc.... Money never grows in the trees & therefore all kinds of utopian, fanciful solutions that contradict all known economic fundamentals can always be proposed by any Tom, Dick & Harry. Hard-nosed reality is something totally different, & this is what it's all about: At the root of India’s current problem with China is the growing power differential between the two nations. China’s GDP today is nearly five times larger than that of India and its defence spending four times bigger. China’s massive economic weight has also translated into huge political influence in the multilateral domain that allows it to block India’s initiatives through procedural means. The fault here is not with China, which is behaving like a normal power. It is India that behaves abnormally in persisting with the myth of a political bond with China on multilateral issues. What Delhi needs is a more purposeful strategy to change the balance with China. It can no longer afford to mask the problem with rhetoric on shared global interests.

safriz said...

NOTAM is a service not obligation for signatory countries. A country can choose not to issue a NOTAM for any reason.
For example I haven't seen India issuing NOTAMS for K series missile testing, have you?

Pierre Zorin said...

Indo-China relations can be best described as "separated under one roof" as far as India is concerned. Pakistan definitely is the "ex partner". Normal , healthy lifestyle is impossible when one is separated under one roof because s/he is surrounded by barriers and restrictions. Add to that constant hostility by the ex. It takes guts and forceful diplomacy to break out of both these situations and forge ahead but will the vote addicted pollies do that? Doubt it. Don't forget they only do a 'five year plan':)

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SAFRIZ: Yet another IDIOTIC rant from you!!! Ask the Indian DGCA what NOTAMs are issued & how and over & above that in February 1999 itself an agreement was inked between India & Pakistan under which both will inform one another of any impending ballistic missile test-firing. Only cruise missiles were excluded. And both countries have adhered to this practice till this day. Ensuring flight safety in one's airspace is the obligation of any country & NOTAM is one of the tools/services that is used for discharging such obligations. Like I said earlier, do your homework.

Anonymous said...

https://thewire.in/98310/marshall-plan-india-china-pakistan-economic-corridor/

Will economic cooperation through the CPEC lead to regional military architectures in South Asia?
How will the US respond to the CPEC – will the Trump administration offer counter-benefits to Pakistan or other regional actors to blunt China’s overtures?
Will Beijing see the CPEC as a case study for regime creation in Asia? That is, use it as a template to create and influence investment and trade standards in the region?

Ur views

Regards
Ron

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: This is how great power strategems are hatched & played out:

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/moscow-and-new-dc-donald-trump-putin-russia-usa-relations-crimea-4468522/

And the first Bollywood-made film on undersea warfare, called THE GHAZI ATTACK, is set for release on February 17, 2017.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGMhw4i1dW4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0z61E9GJ9Jk

Vikram Guha said...

PrasunDa, I have a question about internal security.

Is it true that by encouraging regional hatred/envy of the neighbour central "forces" ensured states in India stuck to union as arbitrator?

Thanks,
Vikram

rad said...

hi Prasun
VMT for the clear precise explanation of the hardware and software of the subtics and the difficulties poised of firing a cruise missile. we dont get this info in any other blog .

I am sure that the chinese fired of their missile as a pre cursor to arm the porkis with the missile as they are really pissed of with the back to back successful launch of the agni 5 and 4!! meant for them. I really wonder how the west will react to pak paying 4 billion $ to china for subs , when they go begging to USA and the west for money!!.I hear the british MP are out to stop 100 mill aid to pak based on this purchase . do you think us will still bank roll pak after all this.

pak is going to have to sell some part of pak to repay the debts like sri lanka!!.



why cant we get some alcm and sea based ones for the kilos from russia as an interim step and also ask for help regarding nirbhay.

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

With Regard to the BSF soldier's video ; what do you think is the reality

And why is the well being of soldiers such a Low priority in India

Anonymous said...

Looks like EU and USA are taking the Babur III seriously. Its all over the news here now.

Ron

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Earlier in April this year it was published that K4 missile tests were successfully tested. From which platform were these fired?

When will Arihant be finally inducted in IN? How many K4 can Arihant carry and what is your estimate regarding the full range of K4?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: The TOCs inside Embassies/High Commissions & Consulates are hardened installations that are activated in times of emergencies, like a diplomatic mission being stormed. You may recall that in 1979 the US Embassy in Islamabad was burnet & razed to the ground—a feat that not even the Iranians dared to achieve.

To RON: Projects like CPEC have 2 principal objectives: First, to pump money into countries surrounding China to build basic transportation infrastructure & follow thast up with massive shipments of China-made goods that will keep China’s industries to stay afloat & overcome recession; Second, to supply massive internal security assistance & hardware to these countries since all of them, including the CARs, Pakistan & Afghanistan are internally unstable & suffer from huge domestic unemployment that in turn forces the youth of those countries to become extremists. But such efforts can really attain a finite distance, For example, the reason why China has sealed its borders with Pakistan is because of Pakistan’s inability to fund the internal security deployments in Gilgit Baltistan. It is all explained here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut9EuBLZxzI

To MANU SINGH: The laws of economics dictate that once a navy goes for SSBNs, then SSNs will inevitably follow & this in turn will eventually ensure that SSKs are no longer used. France & UK & USA no longer use SSKs and India is headed in the same direction, just as Russia too won’t be procuring any more SSKs. If properly planned, the IN won’t require any more SSKs than those already in service & the 6 Scorpenes now under delivery. In other words, no more SSKs under P-75I project. That explains why after repeated assurances, the RFPs for AIP-powered SSKs has not yet seen the light of day.

To DINEJA: Presentl;y, no submarine has on-board sensors capable of acquiring & tracking targets 150km away. But that will change in future when networked operations involving UUVs & airborne UAVs are put into motion.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANAND: What is forcing Sri Lanka are massive borrowings of the previous Mahinda Rajapaksa govt in the hopes of building 2 container transshipment terminals in Colombo & Hambantota that were meant to serve the Indian, African & Middle Eastern markets, i.e. the containers arriving in bulk in these 2 ports from southern China & these containers then be reloaded to smaller vessels for shipment to India, East Africa & the Middle East (& that’s why China’s assurances for developing Gwadar as a transshipment port are total hogwash) . But once India chose to build her own container transshipment terminals in the southern peninsula & chose Singapore as the principal transshipment port meant for freight traffic destined for East Asia & the US west coast, all of China’s & Sri Lanka’s hopes of milking the Indian market were dashed. All this, coupled with the global economic slowdown, has greatly reduced China’s freight traffic to East Africa & the Middle East & therefore China is now saying that it will take 99 years to recover all the money that it is has poured into these 2 Sri Lankan transshipment terminals. India already provides the greatest relief to Sri Lanka thorugh the bilateral free trade agreement.

To VIKRAM GUHA: No, that isn’t true.

To RAD: The US & UK are already piling up financial pressure over Pakistan, rest assured. Six of the IN’s Type 877EKM SSKs are already modified for firing the 300km-range 3M-14E LACM.

To VIJAY: The reality was explained in the video-clip: whenever CAPFs are used like paramilitary forces, such problems & deficiencies will always exist. Assam Rifles, which is a true paramilitary formation, never faces such problems.

To VED: 3,500km-range K-4 SLBM was test-fired from an underwater pontoon. Arihant has already been inducted & that’s why its pennant number is S-73 as I had disclosed almost 3 months ago. Arihant will carry only 4 K-4s. While air forces around the world are rationalising their aircraft fleets, does it make sense to complicate matters by inducting into service two different types of aircraft capable of doing the same job?

Meanwhile, the INS Khanderi(second Scorpene) will be launched in Mumbai later today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1jA1NVQXW0

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To KAMBAR: The MRTA project needs to be rejigged through renegotiations. Procuring just its military cargo version is a financial impossibility. HS-748 Avros are nowadays used for transporting CAPF & armed forces officers. ATAGS is nothing but a rejigged FH-77 with moderate enhancements. It isn’t an all-new design. For expediting deliveries of domestically built howitzers, at least 2 final assembly/integration facilities will be reqd to be set up. Towed 155mm howitzers cannot morphe into MGS since the latter has to be an all-new design for incorporating weight savings. And since the ATAGS is a derivative of the Dhanush-45 (which itself is derived from the FH-77B), it can never be transformed into MGS. Nor does anyone in India possess the design skills reqd for designing any kind of 155mm howitzer from scratch. Finmeccanica is only the corporate holding company & it does not manufacture anything. What matters more is the de-blacklisting of OEMs like WASS, SELEX, AgustaWestland, etc etc. How can the FICV project ever proceed until it is confirmed whether or not it is part of the larger FRCV project? And the GoI wants different design houses to submit different FRCV designs & after the design is selected the GoI wants different industrial entities from both public & private-sector to all build the SAME design for competitive evaluations, following which a final selection will be made. Can anyone provide any other example of any armoured vehicle being made in this manner? Why are interested companies being prevented in bringing in their own FRCV designs? Why should any company build a prototype that is expected to compete against identical prototypes made by others? Can anyone really be expected to submit to such nonsensical regulations? Yes, slewable antenna for AESA-MMR does confer additional benefits. SAAW is a SEAD weapon. ARM is a DEAD weapon. The starboard-side pylon under the air-intake section will be offset by a few inches to the left of the gun barrel’s location. Centreline pylon will carry fuel pod. No wingtip pylons will be mounted.

Pierre Zorin said...

Prasun do you know who runs those Global Conflict, Defence Update and the like channels with computerised narration? It is shocking because they pick English or American monotonous voices who can't obviously pronounce Indian words correctly. What's the point of such mechanical narration and not just keep captions?

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear Prasunji, please help me with these queries.

1) You had mentioned before that you were told way back in 1984 itself that Indian nuclear deterrent was to consist of 12 fission and 12 thermonuclear warheads. Any change in these numbers?

2) You also mentioned that we would keep more plutonium cores in reserve and the total plutonium in our reserve would be 3 tonnes? How many extra warheads, over and above the 24 would this allow us to build?

3) Rough yield of our warheads?

4) How many warheads do you estimate we have currently?

5) Compared to China isn't this just a nominal deterrent at best? I know China is aiming for US but will this puny number even be enough to penetrate Chinese BMD and land a single attack at least?

6) How long will it take India to launch an attack from our semi recessed state once the order has been given?

7) When will our SSBNs venture out with full complement of nuclear missiles on a regular basis like the US and Russia? (if at all)

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

The effect less demonitisation scheme:

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/2000-notes-too-being-pushed-into-human-trafficking-kailash-satyarthi/articleshow/56488645.cms

Anonymous said...

Will the K-4 have MIRVs or will the Arihant carry just 4 warheads ?

Satyaki

rad said...

hi prasun
if the russians are adamant in not fixing fadec western engine on the mrta then what are our options? an-132d , kc-390? or more c-130. have the drdo given a thought to the well proven and looked at an-132d?.

Is the 300km version of the klub missile sufficient ? how accurate are the land attack versions?

i understand the china has also copied it,true?

i dont understand why china is hopping mad about agni 5 now ,than before . Is the babur 3 bullshit a desperate warning to india albiet without tooth.?

Vijay said...

To Mr SANJAY SHARMA Ji

Hello Sir ; You have joined this blog just recently
and are very keen to know about Indian Defence Preparedness

However Many of the Queries that you raise and seek are
in the Nature of CLASSIFIED information

Therefore please dont expect answers to them

We DO NOT want the authorities to BAN or Block our Blog

Anonymous said...

http://www.firstpost.com/world/donald-trumps-press-conference-russia-did-it-cnn-is-fake-and-other-things-we-learned-3200058.html

what exactly happened during POTUS election? did putin really ordered to hack the US election system if it did they what NSA,CIA,FBI and homeland security are doing? what ur detailed explanation?

Regards
Ron

Ravi said...

Dear Sir

After this Pakistani And Chinese SLCM test
we are faced with the prospect of searching for Pakistani submarines
At a Distance of 700 KM from our Coast

So do you think that Our P 8 I are up to the Task

Or we should buy TU 142 ; as they can stay for Much longer over the sea

Why did Russia stop making TU 142

soorya narayan said...

Prasun ji, please reply to my earlier query in your last post about the RFP for AESA radar mentioning new Radome . Also will the submarine launched version of Brahmos be from VLS or torpedo tube launch type ? Thanks in advance.

soorya narayan said...

When will the Combat Hawk with reengineered wings be tested by BAE and HAL ? Eventhough news of Combat Hawk is in public domain why aren't the various media outlets even mentioning it as a possible contender for the single engine fighter contract? Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your reply sir. I don't understand why we gave that business to Singapore. We should be giving that to our near neighbours, ensuring a closer embrace. When they see our actions ratehrthan just words about civilisational ties etc...they will carry greater weight. I have only ever come across 2 sri lankan's, both were surprisingly quite hostile to india but seem to have very soft spot to pakistan. Never understood why?

Anand

Senthil Kumar said...

Dear Prasun,

Thanks for your reply.

http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153597/cpec-the-devil-is-not-in-the-details

Another well written article. Basically CPEC is to ensure direct route from Kashgar to Gwadar, so that china can avoid Malacca Straits during war time.

Now Pakistanis start to understand that CPEC is not a game changer to Pakistan it is only a game changer to China. But Pakistan has no other Choice. They have to go with it to keep their economy moving. And finally they are going to fall on debt trap for next 99 years like Srilanka.

21st Century Colonization is happening. After Srilanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, china will target Central Asian Countries under their fold by giving loans and Colonize them.

But this thing can happen for certain amount of time. One day all this counties will raise against china and Chinese dominance and Influence will come down like Portuguese, French, British and American empires. This downfall will happen during the year 2030 to 2050 period.

India will keep fighting with china for next 3 decades.

Thanks
S.Senthil Kumar

Anonymous said...

@Prasun,

Completely agree with your comments. China like USA did with the Marshall Plan, wishes to find a market for its good. And get a major muslim nation on its side. The down side is that already some chinese companies have said they will move their labour intensive ops to Pakistan (car company is the latest). Pakistanis will get jobs, first class infrastructure, higher GDP and thus more money for defence.

ron

Anonymous said...

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/sI7ZAISf22zYHiMwjPThVL/The-happy-new-year-offer.html


how sustainable is this Mukesh Ambani JIO providing free services? who and how is he getting funding or capital for this company? but once if it will capture market then what would be guarantee to get same services at same conditions

Regards
Ron

rad said...

hi prasun
israel is developing a 150 km range barak 8 .In what way would it be use full to us ?. Anti ballistic missile ? An effective night mare for all Pakistani ac when placed discreetly near the border?

reports say chinese subs are being tracked continuously by India and US till it reaches port .
what is the truth?. Can we have costly airborne assets continuously for weeks ,to follow the sub?

Are the indian made flank sonars and main sonars and CMS on the arihant as good as the the one in the scorpene?

In the pic of the kalveri launch there is a kolkatta type ship being built .I understand all the 3 ships in the class have beenlaunched .What is that in the back ground?

Sankhadeep Mazumder said...

Prasun, what do you think of China's String of Pearls gameplan? Also, why can't India reverse engineer defence stuff as efficiently as China?

Sanjay Sharma said...

TO VIJAY : ok sir, I understand.

But please help me with unclassified information at least.

BTW, can authorities ban a blog just like that? Aren't we a free country? We are just citizens discussing a topic. There are all sorts of discussions happening elsewhere in other blogs even in harsh communist countries like China with sinodefence Forum.

Are you also a co author in this blog?

Arh93 said...

Prasun'da today DRDO tested guided Pinaka-mk2. So it contains IMI Tcs or Mbda guidance system? Rad I think that ship you can see behind Khanderi is INS visakhapatnam.

dushyant hardaha said...

sir
how regional powers like Iran India
and superpowers like USA Russia
will react
on recent SLCM test by PN

Vijay said...

To Mr SANJAY SHARMA ji

I am just another Defence Enthusiast
who is very curious like you

Prasun Sir is the SOLE owner of this Blog

But what I have experienced --After Talking to some other friends
AND asking these very questions ; those that you had asked earlier

Such as

1 Yield of our warheads
2 Number of Warheads .... ; is that --
Some things are meant to remain Classified

You must have heard of the Official Secrets Act

Infact the Real and Actual Size of our Conventional Armed Forces
is also , meant to be a Secret --Unless you are Lucky to have some Friends and contacts



Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: I have no idea who runs them.

To SANJAY SHARMA: All those questions were asked several times before & were answered in several threads in the past.

To SATYAKI: Has anyone in India officially stated to date that MIRVs have been flight-tested?

To RAD: The contract can always be re-negotiated PROVIDED the cake gets bigger & more attractive for the Russians, by developing commercial variants of the MRTA. The 3M14E Club-S is more than enough for any target within the IOR. Imagine three SSKs each armed with 4 such LACMs launching them in a salvo against land-based targets like oil tank farms! This will fetch far far better results than what was achieved in 1971 with P-15 termit ASCMs fired by the Project 205 FAC-Ms against Karachi. All 3M-14Es are equipped with X-band SAR seekers & they’re extremely accuirate. China & Vietnam too have impoprted 3M-14Es from Russia. The 150km-range version of Barak-8 will be the IAF’s LR-SAM. Haf already explained last April how the US, Japan & India were tracking PLAN submarines. Keepi8ng a visual eye on submarines with LRMR/ASW platforms is an expensive option & hence the IN wants the Predator’s Guardian maritime recce version for doing such dull & dreary jobs. The DDG behind the Khanderi is the first P-15B DDG undergoing fitting-out..

To RAVI: What test-firing? Where’s the proof of this test-firing having taken place? Why has the ISPR’s website not published even a single photo of this test-firing? Don’t you think then that the ISPR has something to hide when everytime in the past it has always published photos of past ballistic/cruise missile test-firings?

To SOORYA NARAYAN: The radomes for Tejas Mk.1A too will be imported, in all probability from Cobham of the UK. BrahMos-NG will be launched from torpedo-tubes. BAE Systems has already tested the new-design slated wing.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ANAND” It’s not about giving business to anybody, but the non-availability of deep-water ports anywhere in the Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal, which prevents VLCCs from entering ports located in these two seas. That’s why the nearest transshipoment terminal for exchanging containers is Singapore.

To S SENTHIL KUMAR: The Malacca Dilemma is a false canard being spread only by Pakistanis who suffer from an acute lack of intellect! Of what use is a direct land route linking Kasghar to Gwadar when most of China’s manufacturing sector is located all along China’s coastal belt? And therefore, what will be the cost of transporting all cargo from eastern China to Xinjiang & from there to Gwadar? Cost estimations done so far have already proven that it is far cheaper to send cargo to Gwadar by sea & that’s why recently a cargo train transported the containers to a port in southern China for shipment to Pakistan.

To RON: Exactly what incentive does China have for shifting labour-intensive manufacturing to Pakistan when within China itself there’s large-scale unemployment? If you really wnna know how bad & scary it is inside China today, then watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXVnoIThq-A&t=81s

To SANKHADEEP MAZUMDAR: If China has a ‘string of pearls’, then India too has a similar string that includes the US, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia & Taiwan. Nothing to worry about.

To ARH93: IMI’s TCS system.

To DUSHYANT HARDAHA: If they haven’t yet reacted, it is because there was no test-firing done at all, contrary to all Pakistani claims.

Anonymous said...

Looks like they are reading your blog sir and have published a photo on their main page:

https://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&id=3671#pr_link3672

Ravi

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAVI: Indeed they are! And (LoLz!) to cover up 1 lie another thousand have to be manufactured. Note the bright orange colour colour of the LACM's airframe now, as opposed to the grey-colour shown on the video-clip. Needless to say, that photo has been photoshopped.