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Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Mapping Out An Incredible Rollercoaster Journey

The period between October 2015 and January 2017 saw a bizarre process being played out that has now come back full circle to the point where it all originally started: 
On October 17, 2014 the Indian Army HQ’s Directorate General of Mechanised Forces (DGMF) had issued a Request for Information (RFI) for the comprehensive upgrade for 2,600 BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles (ICV).
This was followed by another RFI issued on March 2, 3016 that invited proposals for upgrading the fire-control system (FCS) of the BMP-2 ICVs.
Then came yet another RFI—issued on March 14, 2016—that invited proposals for upgrading the powerpacks of the BMP-2 ICVs.
On the very same day, another RFI was issued, calling for proposals for arming the BMP-2 ICVs with new-generation anti-armour guided-missiles (ATGM).
And finally, on June 23, 2016 came the final RFI, this concerning the comprehensive upgrade of 1,500 BMP-2 ICVs.
Why were all these RFIs issued in such a staggered manner and what made the DGMF revert back to square one, i.e. proposals for the comprehensive upgrade of BMP-2 ICVs being issued twice (in October 2014 and again on June 2016)? Where were the disconnects and why?
(to be concluded)

234 comments:

1 – 200 of 234   Newer›   Newest»
Prateek said...

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/In-search-of-propriety/ips-hijacks-cadre-review-vacancies-of-the-bsf/
This is a sorry state of affairs.
Why are cadre officers of capfs denied their rights.
Why should all top, coveted posts be reserved for ips?
Is there any merit in appointing ips to such posts?
Govt of india vant be blind to this..then what does it gain by obliging the ips with plum posts & denying the cadre officers of the force their due?

Sudipta Bhattacharjee said...

Seems that the 2 guns of 52caliber are different make one by tata another by kalyani

Ram Bharadwaj said...

Prasun, is there a plan to assemble RAFALE for UAE in India?

http://idrw.org/india-uae-to-explore-joint-production-of-aircraft/

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear Prasunji, I am reposting a few questions from last thread. Please try to answer them when you are free.

1) Considering most modern destroyers use on board light weight torpedoes like the mark 50, MU 90 etc and the Varunastra is a HWT, does this give our ships equipped with this torpedo any advantage?

2) Is the range of Varunastra 30km or 40km?

3) How come the Brahmos is not capable of random last minute manoeuvres prior to target impact considering the last gen AShM like RBS mk3 and harpoon are capable of doing that. The Brahmos aerospace claims the missile is capable of terminal S shaped manoeuvre prior to target impact. Is this bluster from their part?

4) How many Varunastras and TAL are carried on board the Kolkata and shivalik?

5) How would you compare the Kolkata class with type 52 of PLAN?

6) Chinese sources claim type 55 will approach the zummwalt. How can we counter such power if the claims are true?

7) How come you rate the Brahmos as the finest AShM in Asia considering it doesn't have sea skimming approach or manoeuvrability but missiles like klub and yj 12 do?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Prasun read this on Shiv Aroor's blog site:

It's official - Indian Navy wants 57 new aircraft ( potentially for IAC-2) :

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/01/its-official-indian-navy-wants-57-carrier-borne-fighters.html

Advantage Boeing or so it seems as things stand now.


-Subho

Anonymous said...

An excellent article on strategic implication of MIRV in SA context:

http://thediplomat.com/2017/01/why-pakistans-newly-flight-tested-multiple-nuclear-warhead-capable-missile-really-matters/

ron

Gessler said...

Here's the Navy's RFI for carrier-borne fighter for anyone interested -

http://tenders.gov.in/viewtenddoc.asp?tid=del877328&wno=1&td=TD

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUDIPTA BHATTACHARJEE: There are only 2 domestically-built 155mm/32-cal howitzers: OFB’s Dhanush-52 & the ATAGS. Kalyani Group is the prime industrial contractor for the ATAGS, being responsible for building the automotives, gun-cradle & barrel. TATA Power SED is supplying theall-electric gun-control system & all its brushless electric motors (which are also to be found on the Pinaka-1/2 MBRLs). Fire-control system comes from BEL while OFB also builds the ATAGS’ barrel. That’s why the barrel design for ATAGS originating from both Kalyani Group & OFB are identical. Between the Dhanush-52 & ATAGS, the latter is a superior product due to incorporation of all-electric drives, which obviates the need for the more cumbersome & complex electro-hydraulic drives on the Dhanush-52. Consequently, the ATAGS is lighter & has higher levels of reliability & maintainability. So, IF a towed 155mm/52-cal howitzer is to be mounted on a truck to serve as a MGS, then the ATAGS will be the ideal candidate. When the towed ATAGS goes into series production by 2020, it will be produced in 2 final integration facilities: one owned by Kalyani Group & the other at OFB’s Jabalpur facility.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: No such plan exists at the moment, since the creation of a 2nd assembly line anywhere outside France is prohibitively expensive. The same also applies to all other MMRCAs. There are no exceptions.

To RUSHIL ANAND: Those parameters from CVRDE were just inferences being drawn since not even the PSQR, leave alone the GSQR, has so far been drawn up by IA HQ for the FMBT. And that's because the FMBT has since become a part of the FRCV programme.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJAY SHARMA: 1) All Project 1135.6 FFGs, Project 16A FFGs, Project 17 FFGs, Project 15 DDG, Project 15A DDGs & Project 16B DDGs & Project 28 corvettes have HWT launchers on-board. None of them use LWTs. 2) Depends on the depth of the seabed. Operating in shallow waters & deeper waters produces different operating parameters. 3) No ASCM in the world can do any such ‘last-minute random’ manoeuvres. To even make an ‘S-type’ zig-zag manoeuvre requires a lateral distance of at least 15km. In any case, subsonic ASCMs can’t be compared to supersonic ASCMs like BrahMos-1. 4) No TAL is carried by any of those warships. They all have HWT launchers. 5) The Type 052D DDG of PLAN is a full 1 generation behind the Project 15A DDG. 6) Does the hull design of the Type 055 DDG come any closer to that of the DDG-21 Zumwalt? 7) What makes you ASSUME that YJ-12 & supersonic Club-S are sea-skimming? How can the laws of physics differ for 3 types of supersonic ASCMs?

As to your earlier question about the prospects of India breaking up, only those countries that are HARD STATES or national security states or garrison states tend to eventually break up, because hardness always leads to brittleness. That;s why inside Pakistan there’s always turmoil even WRT to religion, while in China the ruling CPC gets sleepless nights from a totally non-violent person like HH The Dalai Lama. Welfare states like India, on the other hand, are STRONG STATES, because they have built-in shock absorbers to recoil & regain their original form. For instance, the on-going hullaballoo WRT Jallikattu is all about cultural nationalism that has arisen as a direct consequence of those wooly-headed BJP politicians & RSS card-holders hailing from the Hindi heartland of the Indo Gangetic plains & the cow-belts who always swear by the superiority of their alleged Aryan ancestry & Sanskrit language script. Only now they are learning the hard way that the southern Indians are no pushovers. Serves these BJP/RSS morons damn right, if you ask me.

Now you can read all about HARD versus STRONG states here:

http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_03_1_kuran.pdf

“There is a difference, Ayubi observes, between a “hard state” and a “strong state”: one punishes and coerces, whereas the other achieves its goals. By these definitions all Arab states are hard states, and a few, such as Syria and Iraq, are ultra-hard or “fierce” states that employ vast bureaucracies, large armies, harsh prisons, and sometimes firing squads to preserve themselves by force. But these hard states are also weak states that lack the capacity to enforce laws, break traditional patterns, and adapt to changing conditions. Ayubi’s two generalizations are not unrelated. States rely on violence insofar as they cannot accomplish their objectives through persuasion and economic incentives.”

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SUBHO: Why should that translate into advantage for the F/A-18 Super Hornet? Isn’t the Rafale M operating from the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle? Since is was always known that IAC-2 will be of CATOBAR design & will be nuclear-powered, the only other outstanding variable was not about hosting twin-engined MMRCAs on board, but about the AEW & CS platform. And no, the E-2D Hawkeye isn’t the only one on offer. Russia’s Sukhoi OKB had 2 years ago offered to co-develop with CABS a carrier-based AEW variant of the Su-80 STOL turboprop & equip it with a triangular radome (like the one designed by Sukhoi OKB for its Zond-1 UAV). In the months to come, this offer will be accepted by the IN. Data on the Su-80 can be found here:

http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/civil/su-80/

To RON: How can a SLCM with only 500km-rangebe declared as a counter-value weapon? It is for this reason that the PN’s Type 032 SSBs will be armed with SLBMs of the type now being developed by North Korea. But of course, most ‘desi’ & NRI/PIO analysts are still oblivious to this fact & hence the conclusions of that report are largely erroneous.

To THE HUNDRED: The contract for the T-90MS MBTs was indeed inked late last year & given the urgency of reqmt, they will be delivered off-the-shelf by Uralvagonzavod JSC, with deliveries beginning by this year’s end. It takes HVF Avadi on average about 4 years to gear up for producing new-design MBTs & therefore the T-90MS won’t have anything to do with HVF. As for APS, the LEDS-150 suite has already been selected for in-country production through a joint industrial partnership of SaabTech & TATA Power SED, about which I had uploaded a slide in the DEFEXPO 2016 thread.

SK said...

Prasun,

With respect to your response to SUBHO -

1) Why is IN keen on Russian AEW Su-80 Platform against the American E-2D Hawkeye. Clearly the Americans have more expertise than any other country when it comes to Carrier based aviation. E-2D is time tested from a proven platform, whereas the SU-80 based AEW will bring with it all the inherit problems associated with new built platforms. Why to relearn the curve when one solution is readily available.

2) Also the Russian have lot of catching up to do when it comes to Solid state AESA, can they match the performance of E-2D AEW or does the proposal includes Israeli Radar mounts on Su-80 similar to IL-78 AEW with IAF.

Satya said...

how is jallikattu protests the fault of rss/bjp.
was't this festival banned by SC on PETA'S behest.
I woud like to know more about RSS/BJP role in it.
The central govt. helped TN govt. bypass the SC order..was this to save its skin ?
please elaborate

Anup said...

Sir,
As per live fist website HAL launch Hawk132 upgraded version. Its armed Hawk?

Thehundered said...

Thanks Prasun.. I came upon an old post on your blog below.. how many T-90s have had LEDS-150 APS suite installed? and is the army ever going to upgrade T-72 tanks or decommission them?

http://trishulgroup.blogspot.com/2009/03/idas-for-indian-t-90-mbts-selected.html

"The contract for supplying the LEDS-150 APS suite for installation on board 987 T-90 MBTs has been won against stiff competition, and follows the Army HQ’s issuance of RFPs on April 24 last year."

Sanjay Sharma said...

Thank you for your replies Prasunji.

1) But what does the BJP have to do with banning jallikattu. Wasn't it the Supreme Court that did so at the insistence of NGOs like peta?

2) When you say supersonic AShM cant be compared to subsonic ones, do you mean that supersonic AShM are vastly superior or that they follow a different attack paradigm?

3) So Prasunji Klub and yj 12 also follow dive attack pattern like brahmos?

4) How come you mention the type 52d is one generation behind the Kolkata? I know you once mentioned that the PLAN ships are built of lower quality steel and that they lack in training, but with their excellent radar and 64 vls cells capable of launching a plethora of missiles isn't the type 52d superior to kolkata in every aspect except anti surface warfare (thanks to brahmos)?

5) Overall how would you rate the NaMo government WRT UPA2?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Agree with your points. There seems to be an implicit understanding among the strategic community that the SLCM 450km range is being deliberately underplayed. It is expected to come up to 1000km range and the GLCM to be 1500km. Many also point out that SLCM is the cheaper option. Unless their economy improves I cannot see them being able to afford 3-4 subs with SLBMs on them. Otherwise as you pointed out it does not make logical sense. There is a sense that they have the capability to develop much larger and longer range systems but haven't and the world prefers that they remain India focused. They are being pretty smart constantly highlight that they are India focused.

Do you think that their subs will actually carry the nukes?
Do you think their PA will actually allow that or will it be manned by PA personal?

Thank you,
ron.

Anonymous said...

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/how-india-s-paramilitary-forces-are-weathering-its-winter-of-discontent/story-lMkfSIGbhQxENJw0395DeN.html

Para military forces in India are mandated with crucial roles in India’s internal security ecosystem. However, there are pressing issues related to parity with the armed forces, infrastructure and basic amenities which hamper the morale of their personnel.comment

Regards
Ron

Ved said...

http://trishulgroup.blogspot.in/2009/03/idas-for-indian-t-90-mbts-selected.html?m=1

Anonymous said...

Regarding your comment to RON above, how large are these Type 032 Subs will be and how many missiles are they likely to carry? Do you expect them to be nuke powered? In what time frame do you think they will be made/delivered?

Das

Anonymous said...

Have you been following the release of CIA documents:


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/in-1972-cia-said-pakistans-pro-west-tilt-stems-from-fear-of-india/articleshow/56794766.cms

One thing that keeps coming across is that Pakistani's are conniving bastards. They have played every major power. Lied, cheated their way. What do you make of the comments about india, its victory pakistan and the nuke test. Americans seem to think pakistani's are a completely different breed.


Monkey

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Prasun Da,

Based on the description of which countries break up & which countries don't do you think the US will break up on racial grounds given the regular discrimination that Blacks face in USA?

asd said...

Dear Prasun,

Today is a good day to see Tejas per some flights over the rajpath; by the way is the so called Tejas Mk IA capable to tackle Chinese crafts like J 10A and 10B ?

Ram Bharadwaj said...

Prasun,

PLAAF recently acquired the Su-35s.

1. How is this aircraft superior to the PLAAF's existing Su-27/J-11 and the Su-30MKK?

2. How is it superior to the IAF's Su-30MKI's?

Anonymous said...

hi Sujoy,
you are not living in an Utopian land, right?
Or are you on weeds? You are talking like typical left liberals.

Racial discrimination in the US is a minor issue. Even though blacks are minority, they do not take this as a disease. India has much bigger issue than the USA.
Blacks are much much better off in US than in any other countries. The people who talk about discrimination against blacks are the people who discriminate in the name of color and religion. These leftists - total hypocrites. Did you read the last week's "Women's Rights March" against US president? These guys do not talk about the women rights in Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc, and crime committed by migrates in Europe.
Blacks in US are dominant in sports, music, and around 20% of armed forces are blacks even though they constitute only 12% of US population.
Some so called liberals wanted to make racism is a big issue and they instigate "black life matters." Black life is indeed matters, like all other human races. But those who propagate "black life matters" didn't protest against the atrocities committed by ISIS/AlQueda against the minorities in Iraq, Syria, etc.

\Ravi

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SK: 1) Yes, US naval carrier aviation is byfar the most advanced, but the Ruskies aren’t pushovers either & the Su-80 is a newer-generation airframe when compared to the Hawkeye. The AEW version of the carrier-based Su-80 has been under development since the late 1990s & even China has gobe for this design for the PLAN’s future CATOBAR carrier designs. The Ruskies have offered India the flexibility to install IN-specific sensors & avionics & this works quite well with what has been achieved to date by the EMB-145I Netra AEW & CS. I see no reason why one cannot build upon such experience & develop more innovative solutions.

To SATYA: The question that ought to be asked is this: if the SC acts on PETA’s submission, then whay has PETA not made any similar submission to date on the fate of crores of ageing cattle that are left to die a miserable death because no one in India cares about their well-being & there are deserted & are left to wandering aimlessly & when this is no longer possible, they are left to die & decay, thereby heightening the risks of man-made epidemics breaking out. Why was PETA not so eager to uphold the right to humane treatment for the crores of ageing cattle but was over-eager to protect animal rights only in southern India? Why has the SC not taken suo moto notice of the miserable plight of the ageing cattle population of India? Is the so-called ‘Gaurakshak’ lobby happy with just preventing the slaughter of cattle instead of extending life-long protection & care to ageing cattle? These are fundamental questions that need to be answered & only then can one try to figure out why the NDA-2 govt tried to bail out the AIADMK state govt in TN in the 11th hour after realizing that such duplicitous policies will always backfire. It is therefore no wonder that political parties with traditional northern Indian grassroots appeal have utterly failed to muster any meaningful & sustainable political base in southern India.

To ANUP: All Hawk AJTs since the 1980s have been available in armed versions.

To THEHUNDRED: So far, none. There was a plan to install the LEDS-150 APS on the first 310 T-90S medium tanks procured in 2001/2002. But this was never implemented & was postponed for being carried out during the mid-life refit of those 310 T-90S.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJAY SHARMA: 1) Refer to my explanation for SATYA above. 2) What kind of question is that? 3) Of course. The same laws of physics apply to all supersonic ASCMs. Type 052D DDGs lack the type of cooperative engagement capability (CEC) of the IN’s P-15A FFGs. Leave alone warships, have you ever come across any photo of any PLA tank equipped with BMS? Have you ever seen any photo of a PLA Army’s artillery fire-direction system? Contrary to what many would like to believe, the PLA as a whole suffers from several technological deficiencies—the most important being its technical personnel have been barred since July 1989 from attending specialised courses in all European & North American military academic centres of excellence.

5) Several structural, systemic & mindset drawbacks still remain. Let me give you the most recent examples, starting with the 3 photos below:

http://pibphoto.nic.in/photo//2017/Jan/l2017012698376.jpg

http://pibphoto.nic.in/photo//2017/Jan/l2017012698375.jpg

http://pibphoto.nic.in/photo//2017/Jan/l2017012698383.jpg

Govt rules clearly state that only the President of India as the Supreme Commander of India’s armed forces can receive & give salutes. All other civilians are only reqd to stand in attention as a mark of respect. Yet the PM & RM are clearly violating the rules & regulations of the Govt of India by giving salutes. Notice that the PM was last year giving an Army-style salute & this year he’s giving a Navy-type salute, while the RM continues giving Army-style salutes (perhaps a hangover from his RSS days).

On the other hand, see this: http://pibphoto.nic.in/photo//2017/Jan/l2017012598322.jpg

The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Deputy Supreme Commander of UAE Armed Forces, Gen Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, can clearly be seen wearing a badge identifying him as being only an ‘official’. There’s just no mention of him being either a VIP or VVIP. This is what is called HUMILITY. India’s brazenly class-conscious politicians ought to learn a lesson or two from this.

Now watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns2bYf4FY6g

From 0.04.55 till 0.05.24 & from 0.06.34 till 0.06.40 you will see the sheer apathy of India’s political class when it comes to behaving humanely with the kith-n-kin of India’s fallen warriors. The body language & attitudes of the politicians see in this video-clip clearly exposes these politicians & their perception of such award ceremonies being merely ceremonial formalities. Not even a micron of humane empathy is visible among any politician—that’s how insensitive today’s average Indian politician has degenerated into. All talk of patriotism & nationalism is only for sloganeering purposes. And then there are those in the BJP who shamelessly glorify gangsters/terrorists by saying that characters like Dawood Ibrahim will draw crowds into the streets if Dawood steps out. Do you then really expect any improvements if such morons become political leaders?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RON: The way matters are being played out in the US under the Trump Administration, the future looks extremely bleak for Pakistan. For starters, just see how the Pakistani taxpayer continues to be taken for a ride by all kinds of conman’s announcements about various ‘gamechangers’:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0u2vyxtogDE&t=130s

And see how televangelists are openly inciting people to commit murder:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6r9iU-JF-8&t=239s

It is this type of infighting that is destined to doom Pakistan forever.

To DAS: They will be SSBs, not SSBNs or SSGNs or SSNs. Each of them will carry a maximum of 2 SLBMs. Their deliveries will begin from 2018 & go on till 2022.

To MONKEY: That was the assessment of 1971. The only variable that is changed today is the US perception of Pakistan post 9/11. Pakistan’s ruling elite has always believed, especially after 1971, that Pakistan’s two-national foundational theory can only be proven right if India can be cleansed of all her Muslim population. And this has been Pakistan’s enduring yearn since then. And that’s what ‘Mission Kashmir’ is all about. India on the other hand does not need to pro-actively provoke. History is bound to repeat itself & this time Pakistan will use the ‘water’ card for initiating conventional military hostilities against India. And this is exactly what India should want as well, hence all the recent talk & debate within India about revisiting the IWT, i.e. give just a gentle nudge so that Pakistan initiates hostilities along the WB/LoC & then India can retaliate in a no-holds-barred manner in that very area. The West will then be only too happy to play its ‘constructive’ role by branding Pakistan the aggressor & using that as the excuse for de-nuclearising Pakistan by force. China alone will not be able to do anything militarily to help Pakistan because the Russians too will join in the de-nuclearisation effort, since the Ruskies have an old score to settle with China, i.e. China’s acquisition of all USSR-era weapons-related IPRs from Ukraine that gave the post-USSR Russia a very raw deal.

To SUJOY MAJUMDAR: Rest assured that the worst-off Blacks in the US are far better off then even the best-off Blacks anywhere else in this world.

To ASD: Yes indeed it was. Do watch the Dhanush-45 & ATAFS in this video-clip:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns2bYf4FY6g

Dhanush-45 from 0.17.39 till 0.17.58

ATAGS from 0.23.57 till 0.24.33

Tejas Mk.1A can hold off against the J-10A but not against the J-10B since the J-10B comes with a passive IRST sensor.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: The Su-35 comes with TVC & Irbis-E PESA-MMR. But the Su-35 being a single-seater, the pilot has to engage in sequential mission management, whereas in the Su-30MKI the two-man aircrew can undertake interleaved operations concurrently.

SUJOY MAJUMDAR said...

Ravi, you are a Certified Asshat. Neither is this your blog nor did I ask you for your advise. Yet you comment

CSC said...

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2017/01/hard-men-in-hard-environment-indian.html?m=1

What are your thoughts on this

buddha said...

http://www.huffingtonpost.in/2017/01/26/exclusive-in-2002-india-s-fighter-jets-hit-pakistan-in-a-surgi/

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA: Some significant details have been left out or wrongly written due to lack of research on the writer's part. Here are the details:

To me, some of the real heroes of the IAF’s OP Safed Sagar was the team headed by the then Director of Air Operations (Offensive), Air Commodore Subhash Bhojwani, who, after being unceremoniously replaced as the IAF spokesman within 72 hours of OP Safed Sagar, had by May 29 discovered, even though belatedly, that a single RAFAEL-built Litening-2 LDP was lying idle at the facilities of the IAF’s Bengaluru-based ASTE (it had arrived a few months earlier for systems integration with the Mirage 2000 and Jaguar IS). With the permission of his immediate superior, Air Vice Marshal S K Malik, the then Additional Assistant Chief-of-Air Staff (Operations), Bhojwani on May 30, through the Indian DA at the Indian Embassy in Israel, sent a most-urgent SOS to Israel’s Ministry of Defence and through it to RAFAEL immediately re-assemble the Israeli team of systems integrators (who had flown back to Israel by May 19, 1999 for taking part in the annual Shavout festivities) back in Bengaluru so that the lone Litening-2 LDP could be integrated with a Mirage 2000TH on a war-footing (similar to what the RAF did with the Ferranti-built TIALD LDP in early 1991 during OP Desert Storm). This was achieved by June 20 & new weapons delivery techniques were quickly developed & validated by TACDE at a hastily improvised instrumented weapons delivery range off Nainital. It was the result of all this that on the night of June 24, 1999 the Pakistani intruders on Tiger Hill top were hit with a 1,000lb Paveway-2 LGB that was launched by a Litening-2 LDP-equipped No7 Sqn Mirage 2000TH from No7 Sqn.

The CCS approved a proposal of the Air Force in May 1996 for procurement of 15 laser designator pods with thermal imagery for fitment on 10 Jaguars and 5 Mirage-2000 aircraft and modification of 30 Jaguar aircraft for carrying the pods at a total cost of Rs.125 crore. The Ministry concluded a contract with foreign firm in November 1996 for procurement of 15 laser designator pods with thermal imagery at a total cost of US $ 27.11 million, equivalent to Rs.95 (1US$ = Rs.35) crore to be delivered between March 1998 and February 1999 in two phases. The flight test and certification on Jaguar aircraft, which was planned to be conducted by March 1998, was completed by the ASTE (Aircraft and Systems Testing Establishment), only in December 1999, after a delay of 20 months. The delays were attributable mainly to delay in software development and change in modification scheme of the aircraft by HAL owing to mechanical problems. Similarly, certification on Mirage-2000 aircraft was also delayed by nine months. Only one twin seater Jaguar aircraft had been modified by HAL, Bangalore as of May 2000 and the fleet modification of 29 Jaguars was yet to commence. Fitment of an autopilot on the Jaguars is mandatory for executing missions with laser designator pods. While the availability of autopilots for Jaguar aircraft is unlikely at least before 2002, mismatch and inadequate planning have seriously undermined the fleet modification of Jaguars with laser designator pods.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To BUDDHA: Also take not of that attack on Loonda Post, which the writer has failed to identify:

Apart from extensively practising high-altitude precision bombing during Operation Parakram along the India-Pakistan border, the IAF also sharpened its skills in conducting helicopter-borne operations with special forces of the Army. The IAF has since publicly acknowledged their role in dislodging Pakistani intruders from an Indian post in the Gurez-Machal sector in J & `K towards the end of July. This incident, as reported earlier, came to be known as the 'Kargil-II intrusion'. The 10-month-long forward deployment was also used to get a measure of the extent of coverage of the Pakistani air-defence radars. Satellite imagery and UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) were extensively used to detect and pinpoint enemy radars. As for the 'Kargil-II' incident, the IAF had pressed into service four Mirage-2000s to launch "pin-pointed ground attack operations" with laser-guided bombs to dislodge the Pakistani soldiers who had intruded into Indian territory. By the time the intruders were detected by Indian soldiers, they had occupied a strategic hill feature, the Loonda Post, overlooking the Neelam Valley. Both the countries suffered several casualties in the operation. "We did what we had to... the Army had asked for our help and we went ahead and did what was required," said a senior official, responding to questions on the 'Kargil-II' incident. In the August 2, 2002 operation, the IAF used four Mirage-2000s for a precision-guided attack to blast out Pakistani soldiers from their positions at Loonda post. They were well entrenched. Twelve IAF fighters were in the air when the operation was launched. Pakistan troops had not occupied any strategic post on the Indian side of LoC during July 2002. However, in the last week of July 2002, there was a minor Pakistan intrusion, approximately 800 meters on our side of LoC in the area of Point 3260, a relatively low feature having little tactical significance. The intrusion was evicted by appropriate action of ground troops and Air Force on August 2, 2002. Point 3260 is not considered tactically important and viable for physical occupation by our own troops. Being in close proximity of the LoC and the area not being physically occupied, Pakistan troops and intruded into this area. However, since the area is regularly patrolled by our own troops, they observed presence of some Pakistan troops in the area of Point 3260 on July 26, 2002, a suitable action was taken by the Indian troops to evict the intrusion and to restore the sanctity of the LoC.

Sanjay Sharma said...

Prasunji, a couple of videos for you.

Looks like we should pay more attention to the navies of Bay of Bengal also. Bangladesh navy in particular has vastly increased in firepower in the last 5 years.

https://youtu.be/en3kRfAN20g

https://youtu.be/j9Vol2DOXb4

US vs China war analysis.

https://youtu.be/J3VqF2dXje0

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the answer. If the SSB can only carry 2, is that really a deterrent for nation the size of India? For practical purposes is it not better to have it carry 10+ SLCM instead? One it offers greater numbers, two SLCM are harder to track the BM's and lot more cost affective?

Das

Anonymous said...

Not sure that you have read that Iran is keen to form a strategic triangle with Pakistan and China. In fact their press is very very keen on it. Where does India figure? Is the port we were developing still going ahead, not seen anything about it in the press lately?


Alexi

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

Reading more of these articles my impression is that they think Pakistanis are like them, proud, logical, worldly and brave. Whereas indian are the opposite, emotional, aggressive and defensive.

How POTUS is going to behave is going to depend on how he is advised by the NSA and the Sec of defence. Both are old Pakistan hands. Both have said very flattering things about them and like most US generals, get very impressed by them. Unless Modiji get to POTUS direct and explain the benefits to USA of de-nuking pakistan, I don't see it happening.

So my question, How do we sell it to Trump that its in the USA interest to de-nuke pakistan bearing in mind Trump only cares about America and America only?

Unless we do that, pakistan will get much much stronger in the next 5 years.

Monkey

Anup said...

Sir,
http://idrw.org/russia-to-develop-main-engine-for-t-50-pak-fa-fighters-by-2020/
So HAL PAKFA Wil be delivered after 2025?

buddha said...

thank you sir for the detail insight...

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Could you PLEASE LIST all the Important and JUICY targets Within the
Range of PINAKA and 155 MM GUNS on the LINE OF CONTROL

Which are likely to be taken out during the Next Round of Hostilities on the LOC

And More specifically Military targets

The Thing is that a Google search does not yield anything of Importance
CLOSE to the LOC

I am STILL Amazed that in the Previous battle after September 29
Pakistan DID not use its 155 MM

What exactly are the Pakis AFRAID OF

RASAYAN said...

Hi,

Why is everybody going gaga about the HAWK mk 132 or HAWK-i?
Is there any significant contribution by HAL to HAWK mk132 except for the license production?


Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Which would be better for us F18s or RafaleM for future.
When would Reliance- Dassault JV start Rafale MII production?


Anonymous said...

Vijay,

PA/rangers only have 122 and 130mm guns at the LoC. If you think PA is scared of IA, ask someone who has served on the LoC. IA/BSF out numbers them 5:1, this is why these guys show them respect. 1:1 you would wet your pants and cry for mummy. Man for man there are only two regiments in IA that match PA, Sikh (Jat) and Gorkha. The rest are good but not the same.

Jata.

buddha said...

http://fullafterburner.weebly.com/next-gen-weapons/amca-the-conqueror-in-making
Some author still dream......LCA is still on developing stage....5th gen is miles ahead of India's capacity....

Pierre Zorin said...

Whilst I could feel the loss and bravery of the fallen men so much that had to control sobbing - especially seeing the widow of that brave fallen soldier at the hands of the cowards sponsored by a diabolical Pakistan, I was appalled by the nonchalance apathy of the leaders. As you say Prasun it was just another show for them. The faces reflect absolute no regard, empathy, sorrow and gratitude. Super power status is not achieved by guns alone - its an attitude. The nation has forgotten what it means to be a REPUBLIC - they are sleeping with eyes wide shut!

Manu Singh said...

Prasun,

What is your assessment of PLA's corvette fleet? They have just added their 31st Type 56 Corvette and seem to be moving towards a fleet of 80. PLA-N already has a fleet of about 65+ Type 22 Houbei Catamarans with ASCM. Where do they fit into Chinese strategy?

Anonymous said...

JAT regiment,rajputana rifles,gorkha,Assam regiment,Sikh Li,Punjab rejiment,Kumaon,Maratha regiment,Bihar regiment,Madras regiment all have the capability to teach a lesson to PA,and yes several of my relatives served on LOC and they said that PA army is full of cowards,my maternal uncle lost his left leg in land mine blast near LOC in 2001,and I think you are a Pakistani Punjabi with fake Indian name.VINOD KUMAR

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada
Why donot you start a WhatsApp group naming Trishul trident and add all the participants in it.
U keep on publishing here but through WhatsApp try to answer the queries that have arisen.
Also group members can more efficient communicate and share news with each other.

Vijay said...

To JATA

You have Written THIS

PA/rangers only have 122 and 130mm guns at the LoC. If you think PA is scared of IA, ask someone who has served on the LoC. IA/BSF out numbers them 5:1, this is why these guys show them respect. 1:1 you would wet your pants and cry for mummy. Man for man there are only two regiments in IA that match PA, Sikh (Jat) and Gorkha. The rest are good but not the same.

First of all I would like to know whether You are an INDIAN or a PAKISTANI

Because you seem to be Totally OBSESSED with the MARTIAL RACE THEORY

Pakistanis Believe in this Theory NOT Indians

I strongly BELIEVE that you are a PAKISTANI

Indian SIKH and JAT Soldiers would NEVER say that they are SUPERIOR to
Other Indian Soldiers

And as far as NUMBERS are Concerned

WAR IS NOT A BLOODY CRICKET GAME where you will have 11 players
Toss ; Rules and Regulations and Umpires

War is about Life and Death

As CLAUSEWITZ said " QUANTITY HAS A QUALITY ALL ITS OWN "

Ever heard of Clausewitz

Anyway Nobody STOPS
Pakistan Army to RAISE more divisions or Deploy 155 mm Guns on the LOC


Sanjay Sharma said...

Prasunji how many Kilo class subs do we have left now in IN?
How many are operational at any given time?
How many have been upgraded with klub anti ship missile?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/five-soldiers-missing-after-hit-by-avalanche-in-kupwara/articleshow/56829711.cms


1)Controlling and Protecting Siachen is Harming India more than Benefiting it?

2)demilitarisation of Siachen should be done. Do you agree? Is it doable?

3)what is Siachen dispute and the strategic advantage of Siachen to India?

Regards
Ron

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
any news about what you have suggested earlier "Customised Armoured Vehicles:fire-support combat vehicle,mobile 120mm breech-loading mortar,wheeled APC".
Any news about Vijayantas and T-55 to be fitted with new 840hp powerpacks?
Ican't understand why every times army goes for MBT rather than fire-support combat vehicle or mobile 120mm breech-loading mortar?
.........Please reply.

Chirag said...

Is drdo's USHUS integrated sonar system superior than sonars of Russia and China

Vivek said...

Prasun da,

Just happenned to have some talk with old n important Sangh parivar members and was surprised that they were predicting Indo Pak war (and taking back Pok) in 2018, don't know exactly what's their source.

But exactly how do u see 2018 hostilities shaping up, u have now said that water would b the trigger, earlier I remember u also talking abt Pak Afghan border heating up and acting as trigger, also talked abt action in chickens neck area as early as March this year.... Exactly what shape n size is expected ?

Apologies in advance if asking anything wrong

Rgds
Vivek

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Vijay

No he not heard of Clausewitz, as always Pakis always fail strategically. As they never study tactics.

@Jata
Why any indian show respect to those pakis soldier who fighting for hate filled two nation theory? I actually prey whoever fighting for such filthy ideology directly go to hell.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To CSC: That analysis was totally one-sided & consequently erroneous. It would have been a balanced one had the author taken into consideration that pattern of annual exercises conducted by the PLA in TAR, Xinjiang & Yunnan & what the PLA’s threat perceptions have been & how they have evolved since 2010. How can one devise a counter-strategy without first appreciating what shape & form the enemy is?

To DAS: Of the eight Type 032 Qing-class submarines the PN will receive, four of them will be SSBs carrying 2 SLBMs each. No matter how many SLCMs such SSBs can carry, for as long as the SLCMs can’t reach any major urban metropolis of India, their strategic value will remain diminished.

To ALEXI: LoLz! And do you reckon Russia will allow this to happen? Will Russia wish to see Iran slipping away from its sphere of influence & that too after Russia had helped save the Baath Party regime in Syria? And just 2 days ago at a seminar in Delhi, the prediction from several serving & retired MEA officials was that Russia will make all-out efforts to make friends with the Trump Administration in the days ahead by proposing a united military front against ISIS, while at the same time Moscow will leave Beijing out on a limb because China has not been buying oil & gas from Russia in the quantum that it had promised to do so in the past. In other words, the Russians have concluded that they have been short-changed by the Chinese.

To MONKEY: LoLz! If the Pakistanis are logical, then how come they ensured the self-destruction of the 2-nation theory in 1971 by losing East Pakistan forever? Why were they unable to facilitate the Afghan Taliban’s consolidation of power inside Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001? And why do the Pakistanis continue to remain divisive & suicidal in the name of religiosity? Trump has already begun the process by subjecting all Pakistanis applying for US visas to severe vetting which is the ultimate insult to any Pakistani national. What will follow in the time ahead will be far more devastating & insulting, rest assured.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIJAY: It will be the PA’s Company HQs, Battalion HQs, artillery gun-pits, etc etc. The PA did not use its 155mm howitzers because the IAF would have counter-retaliated by blowing out those M109s to bits & the PAF is today an extremely stretched & small & ageing force that needs to conserve its assets for defensive counter-air operations. The PAF today can’t launch offensive interdiction missions for more than 1 week.

To RASAYAN: The Hawk-I essentially features larger AMLCDs so that it can receive footage from a belly-mounted Litening LDP, apart from new-generation HOTAS hardware meant for reducing pilot workload, so that the aircrew can spare more time for ground-attack mission management.

To VED: Definitely greater number of Rafales being procured will make more sense. Why should such aircraft be produced in India? What benefits does licenced-assembly confer on India? As I had explained several times before, it will be far better if a number of Indian vendors become part of Dassault’s global supplier chain, since this will not only create more kob opportunities for India, but will also result in FDI into India’s aerospace manufacturing sector via the industrial offsets route.

To JATA: No CAPF ever serves along the LoC. They never have & never will. The LoC is manned 100% by the IA. The PA learnt in 1971 itself not to take ‘pangga’ directly with the IA. Hence its decision to raise & nurture entities like LeT & JeM that serve as ‘bali ka bakhra’ (sacrificial lambs).

To MANU: It is all part of the PLAN’s anti-access denial strategy along the 1st Island Chain.

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: It’s the time factor. More & more of my time since mid-2016 has been devoted to long-range, long-duration recce trips. And this shows on indication of ending.

To SANJAY SHARMA: 9. About five are operational at any time. 6 have been upgraded.

To CHIRAG: Yes.

To VIVEK: LoLz! Maybe they’re taking cues from this blog! I never said anything about the Pak-Afghan border heating up & becoming a trigger of any sort. Instead, I had said that a multinational coalition will emerge primarily to de-nuclearise Pakistan after the latter starts threatening Afghanistan, Iran & Israel with its nuclear WMDs. Recently the Pakistani Defence Minister did just that after reacting to a fake news WRT Israel. So, it does seem that my predictions were based entirely on logical reasoning that in turn was based on my appreciation of the adversary’s mindset. About what shape & size the future hostilities will take, it’s all about limited war about which I can’t elaborate further as of now. But suffice to say that in case of total war like in 1971, the premium is on time & therefore they are of short durations, whereas in a limited war, there are no such time-bound pressures, as was the case with OP Vijay in 1999. Such limited high-intensity wars can be waged non-stop for up to 3 months.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

The Indian Army wants 500 Igla-1M, 200 Kvadrat & 250 Strela-10M SAMs

http://indianarmy.nic.in/writereaddata/RFI/513/Kvadrat.PDF

http://indianarmy.nic.in/writereaddata/RFI/512/Strela%2010%20M.PDF

http://indianarmy.nic.in/writereaddata/RFI/511/Igla%201M.PDF

Eureka with BrahMos Aerospace CEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EiUhpTWvze4

On-Board INS Sindhukirti https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZQTXaU8nMk

Defence Sector's Budget Wishlist https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eglF1YrMGFM

Defenders of India Brahmos Missile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx4lhbeXgOc

Defenders of India Tank Warfare https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4W2Tf1dj8I

Mi-17V-5 for Punjab & Balochistan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vdmc9YYvvmA

China's Naval Strategy Oil & Shipping Routes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-WWt_z7Yc

Pierre Zorin said...

Compare this to US submarines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCbXLS9bU_E
Japanese sub https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBnA3FQwfyo
German sub https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV5VDyBfIbA

Sanjay Sharma said...

Sorry for the confusing wording in my earlier question Prasunji.

1) What I meant was, when you said
"supersonic ASCM can't be compared to subsonic ones" what did you mean by that.

Did you mean that supersonic ASCM are much superior to subsonic ones? So much so that comparing the two are like comparing a musket to a machine gun and hence we can't compare them.

Or we can't compare them because they are like apples and oranges, as in subsonic missiles follow sea skimming attack but lack speed but supersonic ones follow dive attack but have much greater speed?

I have read innumerable times that supersonic ASCM are superior to subsonic ones but since you clarified that they don't have sea skimming attack phase (and that obviously exposes them to being shot down well beyond the radar horizon due to their higher altitude), I'm now have a doubt?

2) Why is it that supersonic missiles can't have sea skimming phase?

3) Are none of the supersonic ASCM capable of sea skimming phase(moskit, HF3 of Taiwan, p800 oniks)

Thanks

Pierre Zorin said...

Is MiG 29UPG roughly equivalent to MiG 35?

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Many thanks for your Reply

Sir Can IAF planes hit Pakistan Army 155 MM positions
(IN CASE it is Asked to do so) WITHOUT crossing the LOC

Secondly How do you look at the evolving Situation in Afghanistan

The Pakis are Jumping up and down saying that US and India will be replaced
by Russia -China- Pakistan -Iran alliance

Right Now AJIT DOVAL is going to RUSSIA

Is this Related to Afghanistan

Rajesh Mishra said...

With Trump in power, it is becoming more and more plausible that India, Russia, Israel and US shall keep on coming together more and more. This may first lead into complete obliteration of Pakistan irrespective of the presence of China.

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
1) About Durand Line:
https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/170887/Durand%20Line_History%20Legality%20%20Future_Final.pdf

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/8176-india-should-question-legality-durand-line-between-afghan-pak

2) Army chief says Pakistan's heavy shelling is responsible for avalanches:
http://idrw.org/army-chief-says-pakistan-responsible-avalanches/

buddha said...

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/cia-reported-six-sightings-of-ufos-over-india-bhutan-and-nepal/story-tKMATrDE37L73NumBfpxcM.html

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJAY SHARMA: Existing warships without APAR (like MF-STAR) can't accurately track an inbound supersonic ASCM & for subsonic ASCMs existing mechanically scanning radars can detect them only on the horizon. Without accurate tracking cues, conventional radars can't provide fire-control cues to any existing self-defence system. Therefore, only new-generation APARs are capable of effectively countering supersonic ASCMs. Why supersonic ASCMs aren't sea-skimming? Because of the same reason that combat aircraft can't go supersonic at tree-top heights, i.e. laws of physics. And that's why NONE of the existing supersonic ASCMs are sea-skimming.

To PIERRE ZORIN: No. MiG-35 has Zhuk-AE AESA-MMR whereas the MiG-29UPG has the Zhuk-ME mechanically scanning MMR.

To VIJAY: Any field artillery howitzer of the PA will be positioned at least 30km away from the LoC. Even though the IA's existing FH-77Bs can fire out to 41.5km when firing from higher altitudes, locating the hostile gun positions requires visual recce through pods like RecceLite & only then can the data be exploited by IAF strike aircraft equipped with Litening LDPs & LGBs & the LoC will have to be crossed by such aircraft. The LoC is only a temporary ceasefire line & has never been sacrosant. Either party can cross it whenever it so chooses. It is only India that has harped about the LoC being sacrosant (especially during the NDA-1's rule) & hence almost everyone else has ASSUMED this to be the truth. Only the IB is sacrosant as per international law, & not the LoC or LAC. But if you were to pose this question to any Indian journalist or TV anchor, none of them will know the difference between the IB, WB, LAC & LoC. Consequently, they all gloss over this detail & the gullible audience too remains unaware about such ground realities & this then leads folks like to you to ask such questions. But now that you have been explained all this, kindly spread this around & educate those around you who are ignorant about it.

Indian NSA is going to Russia for finalising the next tranche of military assistance to Afghanistan. While India has supplied Mi-24s to Kabul, it is Russia that provides the spares support & armaments & India in turn now only pays for such services rendered by Russia.

And lastly don't worry about what extra delusions Pakistan wants to indulge in. The PA is now preparing for providing security for the forthcoming national census & up to 200,000 soldiers will have to be deployed throughout the country for providing security to the census officials.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: Here is an excellent example of how 'intelligent' the PA & its ISPR is:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1311486/pakistani-indian-troops-exchange-fire-across-loc-ispr

The dumb chaps don't even know that no one in India uses RPG-7.

And see how fearful their local journalists are now when it comes to reporting the truth:

http://www.dawn.com/news/1311472/two-missing-activists-return-home-say-family-members

Now read this & compare its content with that of THE DAWN:

http://indianexpress.com/article/world/second-missing-pakistani-blogger-found-leaves-country-fearing-for-life-family-4497420/

Anonymous said...

Hi prasun
Why is IA buying strela and other SAM? When they need to be replaced. And why RFI when the only source is Russia

Anonymous said...

Prasun Da

What is your opinion of Strategic Partnership under the DPP? Its current form suggest that a single entity will be give a single sector. Does not that kill healthy competition? What is your opinion on this?

And do you think we should raise Defence FDI under automatic route from 49% to 51%?

Rushil

Ravi said...

Dear Sir

I case you might have Noticed the Present ARMY CHIEF has
made a series of aggressive statements against Pakistan from the Beginning

I guess that he was specifically hand picked with a clear mandate
to Prepare the Army for a show down with Pakistan

Even Today he has blamed the AVALANCHES on Pak Army Firing

Now this opens the way for India's retaliatory action on the LOC

Rahul said...

Dear Sir

It is Now more than TWO and half years since this Government came to power

Would you say that They have been able to repair the damage done by A K ANTONY

Can we ever Quantify the Damage Done by MMS and A K Antony

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAJESH MISHRA: The reason why Trump has subjected Afghan & Pakistani nationals travelling to the US to ‘extreme vetting’ is because the US Dept of Homeland Security (DHS) has since late 2001 had complete unrestricted access to the national citizenship registration database in real-time through the PISCES network. This means every Afghan nor Pakistani national entering or leaving Afghanistan or Pakistan via any CIQ facility is automatically tagged by the DHS. What it means is that any Pakistani citizen caught or shot dead by India in J & K or elsewhere can easily be IDied through comparison of biometric data contained within Pakistan’s NADRA national citizenship database. All that India has to provide the FBI are the fingerprints. That explains how Indian authorities so rapidly identified the body of one of the slain terrorists in J & K as being the nephew of Jaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi. It is all revealed here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL1jGJnXwFI

The PA has been trying to prop up the spectre of ISIS inside Afghanistan by pumping its proxies like LeT & LeJ inside Afghanistan just so that the PA can convince the US, China & Russia that only the Afghan Taliban can effectively counter ISIS there, thereby legitimizing the Taliban’s existence inside Afghanistan as a powerplayer. However, all this has since been checkmated by Afghanistan, India & Iran by producing undeniable evidence about the PA’s complicity WRT the existence of ISIS indoctrinators residing inside the Laal Masjid in Islamabad under the PA’s protection. Iran on the other hand has raised an anti-ISIS liberation force made up of both Sunni & Shia Afghan refugees residing inside Iran, while at the same time recruiting Pakistani Hazara Shias to be part of an anti-ISIS military force that will be unleashed inside Pakistan in the time to come.

Trump has upped the pressure on Iran only because he wants the DHS to be allowed to access the Iranian national citizenship database, similar to what the DHS has done in Pakistan.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: That’s because deliveries of Akash-1 SAMs are at a slow pace. Such missiles are also produced in countries like Poland, Bulgaria & Romania.

To RUSHIL ANAND: The formula for defining strategic partnerships is still under deliberation. While there’s no doubt that market segmentation is the answer, how to go about it is not yet clear. This is exactly what has dogged the T-90S & BMP-2 comprehensive upgrade projects as well. Raising FDI levels won’t solve the problem. The fundamental problem remains the non-issuance of single-window clearance, meaning even if the Central govt accords clearance, 101 approvals have to be sought from the state govts.

To RAVI: The head of any military institution should always carry a big stick, but talk softly or talk very little. Therefore, I personally do not approve of COAS giving so many interviews immediately after taking over his new responsibilities. Avalanches are not caused by blast effects of artillery rounds, but rather by the acoustic resonance caused by artillery rounds when they’re fired. After all, avalanches are caused when ice blocks come cascading down the mountain slopes from higher altitudes, i.e. areas where there’s no human habitation & hence no one will fire artillery rounds directly into such high-altitude areas. Consequently, if at all artillery is to be blamed, it is most likely due to the sounds produced by the IA’s field artillery guns opening up.

To RAHUL: Damages done over a 10-year period cannot be undone in 2.5 years. All damages can be quantified by adopting the requisite scientific methodology.

Anonymous said...

I can see Pakistan and Afghanistan being added to the list very very soon. What will be interesting is how they will react. I don't see Nawaz Shreeif doing anything. He has too much money abroad. Do you see Trump committing more troops to Afghanistan? Do you see India committing some troops too? Do you think this will push Iran completely into Pakistan's arms?
Iran has already said they want to join the CPEC, Does it mean we can say goodbye to the Chahbhar port and hence access to Central Asia?

Thank you,
Das

Ps. Its is very silly of COAS to try to say avalanches are started by PA. This plays into their saying that if there is a mosquito bite in India it is somehow blamed on Pakistan/ISI. Why do we give them GOD status?

bhoutik said...

if CEA technologies can supply phased array radars for the Anzac class, why is the AN/SPY-1D employed for the Hobart class?

the radar on the Anzac class is apparently the first fourth generation Active Phased Array Radar (PAR) System to be brought into service anywhere in the world. (http://www.cea.com.au/!Global/Directory.php?Location=CompanyProfile:CompanyProfile) how are these different generations characterised?

how does the CEAFAR compare to the MF-STAR and AN/SPY-1D

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/australia-and-usa-collaborating-on-new-phased-array-radar-01055/ ---------- mentions here under 'Timeline & Key Programs' that an export was made to a mystery customer in 2014. do you know who that is?

did australia design and develop the phased array radar technology all on its own or did it have access/help/cooperation to/from american/european ecosystem?



https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-So1N4BEr48A/WItbivYB-xI/AAAAAAABJbg/cPAHMge7d-YxKkdLI7Jgkm2xZ6l95-dgQCLcB/s1600/Carrier-borne%2Bfixed%2Bwing%2BAEW%2Baircraft%2Bmockup%2Bon%2Bboard%2BWuhan%2527s%2B002%2Bcarrier%2Bmock-up.jpg ------- this mockup seems to show an Su-80 with the triangular shaped radar from the zond uav - like you mentioned. is tha radar being supplied by the russians?

Anonymous said...

I am quite pessimistic on the 2018 scenario. Trump does not want to spend a dollar on anything that doesn't help USA. They will not do anything to help us. He has already said Buy American, Hire American. He constantly complains that USA wasted trillions of dollars on middle east and got nothing in return. I think he will happily watch India - Pakistan nuke each other back to the stone age. So far nothing he has said or done suggest otherwise. UK has already said no more expeditions. Europe would be too scared at the thought of getting 10million +refugees on their doorstep. We have to do this ourselves. No too way about it. If my pessimistic view somehow comes to pass, how long do you think the forces need to be able to overcome them? What additional systems will be needed and in what time frame.

Monkey

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
Looks like it has been a turnaround as far as artillery is concerned. Dhanush and ATAGS has been a great success story.

Why can't we have similar private industry and DRDO joint venture in other critical areas.

With HWT selection yet to be done for Kalvari class, I have a feeling that we will go for indigenous HWT.I guess they are very close to announce it. I am guessing this because of success with varunastra.



Ram Bharadwaj said...

Prasun

1. What is the status of FOC for Tejas? What tests remain? Is the refuelling probe integrated and tested?

2. Has the ADA made any progress on the Tejas-MK2? When is the first prototype expected to be rolled off?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VED: There have been & are other such success stories as well. Stallion truck & Pinaka MBRL, for instance. HWT selection for Scorpene SSKs is not an urgency because the to-be-selected HWTs are already integrated with SUBTICS. Therefore, all that needs to be tested during sea-trials are the HWT ejection tubes inside the Scorpene, which is an electro-mechanical process that can easily be done with practice torpedoes of the SUT family. Varunastra HWT is optimised for launch from warships & cannot be compared with HWTs launched from submarines. The thermal torpedo is still years away from maturing as a design suitable for series-production.

To MONKEY: Why should anyone come to India's assistance? And does India need such assistance? Why this dependency syndrome prevailing among many Indians? That the US faces an existential threat from Pakistan was never in doubt & was known since the day the Pakistanis burnt down the US Embassy in Islamabad in 1979. If you're not aware, any diplomatic mission is sovereign territory & that means the Pakistanis committed a direct act of aggression when they attacked the US Embassy. Such anti-US feelings have grown manifold over the years inside Pakistan. Note closely what an ex-CGS of the PA has to say about it:

Lt Gen Shahid Aziz Siddiqui: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuzFvPIJG3c

So it is evident to every discerning individual that the US needs to decisively act against Pakistan & it will do so at a place & timing of its own choosing, not because it wants to assist India, but because it wants to save itself. No one anywhere should have any doubts or illusions about this glaring reality.

To DAS: Saying something is totally different from actually committing to some concrete action on the ground. Why should Iran crave for joining a China-led axis when it has more to gain from Russia? And what if Russia decides to give Iran a reality check b y arming Azerbaijan? And why should send any more foreign troops to Afghanistan? What Afghanistan needs most today is economic investment from which it can generate enough funds required to have a functional national security force while at the same time improving the country's grassroots economy through, for instance, revival of its agricultural sector. This alone will go a long way in pacifying its rural population.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAM BHARADWAJ: 1) FOC status won’t come until this June. The entire armaments suite hasn’t been test-fired nor are the supersonic drop-tanks available. 2) The Mk.2 is due for roll-out next year.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Just as I had predicted (LoLz!):

Russia is upset over the fact that despite the signing of an inter-governmental deal over a year ago, there had been no progress from the Indian side on the issue of purchase of the twin-engined 200 Kamov Ka-226 utility choppers. "The proposal is over a year old. The agreement was firmed up during the summit meet between our Prime Minister (Narendra Modi) and President (Vladimir) Putin in Goa last October. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is to hold a majority stake in the venture that will execute the project," it said quoting a source. "But they (Hindustan Aeronautics) see a conflict of interest," it added, referring to the Indian state-owned compan's own light utility helicopter programme. The Ka-226 deal was a major component of defence pacts worth $10 billion signed between India and Russia during the October 2015 summit. India confirmed to buy 200 choppers of which 60 were to be fly-away, another 60 as knock-down units and the balance 80 to be made in India. The Ka-226s were to replace India's aging fleet of Cheetah and Chetak choppers. As regards the proposed new Indian entity, while Hindustan Aeronautics is to hold 50.5 per cent stake in the joint venture, Russian entities—RH and ROE—are to own the remaining 49.5% equity.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/nsa-doval-in-russia-to-hold-strategeic-talks/articleshow/56882021.cms

Only idiots at the MoD would have advised the PMO to go ahead with the Ka-226T commitment. Now the PMO & MoD are staring at a huge embarrassment. Didn't anyone in the MoD even realise that Russia's armed forces themselves don't operate the Ka-226T & therefore no LUH or LOH/RSH version of the Ka-226T has ever been developed by Russian Helicopters JSC? Whay was the Ka-226T even evaluated in-country by the IA & IAF on a no-cost-no-commitment basis? Only an idiot will commit to procure two different types of LUH/LOH/RSH to fly identical missions that defy all laws of economics & logistics! Let's now see how UAF goes about ordering the HAL-developed HTT-40 BTT after already having procured Pilatus PC-7 Mk.2 BTTs in large numbers.

No wonder the Ruskies are now totally pissed off!

Anonymous said...

Tejas Mk2 rolling out before/same-time as Mk1A? or is it that you think there won't be a Mk1A at all - go directly for Mk2 with F414 engines?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Mk2 is ADA's project. Mk.1A is HAL's project. ADA is not involved with Mk.1A in any way. Don't mix the two together for spreading confusion.

SK said...

Prasun,

Didn't you said, that the Ka-226T is not meant as a replacement for Armed Forces LUH but to be primarily used a search-and-rescue (SAR) & CASEVAC for BRO and NDMA

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2014/12/glimpses-of-ideas-2014-expo.html

Sidharth said...

What's is the difference between Tejas Mk2 and Mk1A. Shouldn't not the Mk2 given to HAL - considering they have more expertise than ADA.

Ant said...

Sir,your observations on ka-226 seems correct. Is this dilemma happens actually due to the poor visionary of MoD or due to the mistrust of services and,now MoD also, on ADA& HAL?.I think they never thought of HAL will make LUH in such a short period.

Anonymous said...

Are you saying that USA will take out Pakistani nukes because Pakistani's burnt down US Embassy in Islamabad in 1979? So why has the USA given Pakistan $20-50 Billion, including F-16s since then? Are they mad?

US and allied forces had the ISI cornered in northern Afghanistan but allowed them to fly out in PAF c-130s. That is why I am saying Americans don't feel the same way as we do about Pakistan and they will think what is best for them not India. I do not see Trump spending a cent to help India, unless he sees a way of making big profit. Question is is there a profit to be made by de-nuking Pakistan? What is the cost/benefit ratio? Trump could say, you open up the Indian market to American goods and I can de-nuke Pakistan. Would India be prepared to be colonised again by another power to remove a road block in its path to becoming a major power? I think its much easier to remove the road block ourselves.

Only concern would be if it turns into a nuke war, how many warheads they can land on India? How many hits can take and still become a major power?

Monkey

Anonymous said...

That is the reason why I think we should be focusing on getting the second and third production lines going for the Tejas, ratehrthan importing in a single engine'd fighter. Even if that Tejas is not as good as the F-16, we will have full IP for it. It will employee Indians and Indians will maintain and fix it. It is the first time a system has been made by the Indians for India in many 100's of years. We MUST support it!!!

Monkey

Ved said...

Dear Prasun,
In your above reply should I presume that blackshark torpedoes or F21 is a surety in Kalvari class.

Meanwhile what happened to today's K4 launch?

Maverick said...

1) Does the HTT-40 has any advantages when compared with Pilatus PC-7. The PC-7 was developed in late 70's. Whereas the the HTT-40 is a recent design, so can it do anything better at all then PC-7

2) How many missile launch tubes does the follow-on subs of Arihant have (S3,S4 etc) 4 or 8

3) You previously said the Shaurya missile was rejected by armed forces. But Shaurya can be a very good replacement to Agni 1. It is canister launched and can do Depressed trajectory instead of Agni's ballistic trajectory. Your opinion on this

Anonymous said...

Pakistan steps up missile tests to counter India defence push
Launch of nuclear-capable weapons creates long-term threat to stability, analysts say

https://www.ft.com/content/a66fdc8c-e6b1-11e6-893c-082c54a7f539

Some interesting comments too....

rad

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Does General Dynamics AJAX platform be considered for FRCV concept vehicle that IA is asking for? I mean a 50 ton tank with 1200 hp rear engine, like Japanese Tank X, can be made out of this concept vehicle chasis, right? Tata / Bharat Forge and General Dynamics have already tied up for this project, so it there a possibility for this?

Also, hafiz saeed house arrest, is pakistan back to its double games? It looks like an eye wash to impress Trump Administration. And yesterday some Pak Media outlets even said quite openly, Pakistan will never sacrifice its strategic assets but might play along with USA for time being like Musharraf did. Your thoughts.

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SK: Yes, that was the plan back in 2014. By the time the BRICS Summit was held in Goa, the goalposts had been moved even though the HAL-developed LUH/LOH/RSH was a reality by then.

To SIDDHARTH: The Mlk.2’s airframe will be heavier & slightly larger & will be a true MRCA. The Mk.1A isn’t yet an MRCA & it will have to prove itself a series of flight-tests that HAL plans to conduct along with CEMILAC & ASTE. The Mk.2 too will have to undergo an exhaustive round of flight-tests & won’t be available for series-production till 2025. The Mk.1A—if it performs as promised by HAK, will enter series-production by 2019.

To MONKEY: That’s an oversimplistic assumption. Of all the US aid & CSF disbursed to date, 60% of it comes back to the US due to Pakistan’s heavy financial debts & their interest payments. The F-16s given to Pakistan as well as those subjected to MLUs have been kept on an extremely tight leash post-9/11 & the supply of spares is meant for a very finite duration of flight-hours per month. You can’t use the Kunduz airlift as the sole determining benchmark for US attitudes towards Pakistan. And again, you are ASSUMING that Trump will militarily intervene in order to assist India, when I had clearly explained earlier that the US will intervene only to secure its own national interests which, if they converge with those of India, will benefit India as well. And how can opening up of any market result in colonisation? Aren’t the Indian markets already open & isn’t the US already India’s biggest trading partner? So has India already been colonised by the US? India by herself can never become either a major power or a leading power. Even China hasn’t attained that status as yet. The USSR did for only a few decades & then punched-out fully fatigued. Those who have, like Japan, the UK, France & Germanby—have all attained this status only by aligning themselves with the US.

To MAVERICK: 1) None whatsoever. Only the airframe’s IPR is owned by HAL. Almost everything else on-board is imported. 2) S-2/Arihant, S-3 & S-4 will be identical. No design changes at all. 3) Depressed trajectory flight will result in decreased range. There’s just no need for 750km-range missiles for strategic deterrence when missiles like the Agni-4 are available.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RAD: Just wait for Trump’s forthcoming announcement on further financial curbs against Pakistan, i.e. US vetoes on Pakistan’s IMF & WB loan applications because this US Administration is determined to no longer finance or subsidise Pakistan’s nuclear WMD programmes when Pakistan is not making any effort to ensure regional peace & clings on to utopian visions of attaining strategic parity with India. Just as was the case with Iran, the US curbs on Pakistan’s financial system will also ensure that Chinese financial institutions are unable to fund all the CPEC-related infrastructure projects that are based on US$-denominated financial loans.

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: Concepts like the AJAX will be cost-prohibitive for India. The only available cost-effective solution for India that will also ensure job-creation is the conversion of a few hundred (about 700) of the existing T-72M1s as heavy fire-support vehicles like the Russian BMP-T concept. This is the need of the hour, since the IA’s envisaged BMP-2 ICV upgrade is confined mostly to vectronics & not to any major up-armouring of the hull. So, while the IA’s MBTs are meant for engaging hostile MBTs, the BMP-2 ICVs will be highly vulnerable to ATGMs unless the heavy fire-support vehicles are used for clearing dug-in hostile infantry units that will be waiting to ambush the BMP-2s. Usage of thermobaric 120mm/125mm rounds by the IA’s MBTs to engage hostile dug-in infantry will only distract the MBTs from their prime mission, which is to engage & destroy hostile MBTs. Therefore, a combination of heavy fire-support vehicles & helicopter gunships like the Rudra--both armed with anti-armour guided missiles carrying thermobaric warheads—will be the logical solution.

WRT Hafiz Saeed, this is nothing but another eyewash emanating from Pakistan. And now that the NIA has filed the chargesheet against JeM & masood Azhar, even China will henceforth find it Impossible to protect Pakistan at the UNSC’s Sanctions Committee.

Anonymous said...

Prasunda,

1) Just 12-24 Agni IVs would be grossly insufficient as a deterrent against PRC. Either A-4 must be produced in large numbers or A-5 (with MIRVs) should be inducted along with A-4 production at a moderate rate. But all this is very slow moving. It is a shame if even Pakistan races ahead with stronger nuclear forces.

2) Looks like a K-4 test scheduled for Jan 31 was postponed. Technical reasons or ``strategic restraint" ?

Satyaki

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SRINIVASA NANDURI: More details are emerging about the reasons for the crackdown against LeT/JuD was initiated yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLWeCNJD8os

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcMiuv63jvc

Apparently the US had warned Pakistan on January 11 (during the last days of the Obama Administration) with dire financial consequences & the US had also enlisted China's support. China too had been applying intense pressure for a crackdown against both the LeT/JuD & JeM since Beijing has been fearing about an Indian economic boycott of China--a move that could prove disastrous for an already troubled Chinese economy. It is this pressure aginst the 'State' of Pakistan that has finally compelled both the PA & the civilian govt to come to an agreement on the issue of the crackdown, something that was alluded to yesterday at the maiden press-conference of the new DG of ISPR:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSyx6q1wWEc

But as expected, the 'desi' press-corps is totally clueless about such developments & therefore as always ends up asking the wrong questions to the wrong people:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kAZBRqhJHE

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SATYAKI: 1) India's strategic nuclear arsenal is still in the process of transitioning from a 'minimum credible deterrent' to a 'credible minimum deterrent'. The latter stage will be realised only when India is in a position to deploy 50% of her nuclear warheads as a sea-based survivable deterrent. The remaining 50% will be comprised of land-launched & air-launched missiles carrying nuclear warheads.

Gessler said...

Hi Prasun ji,

About the retirement of Prithvi-II SRBMs from service...what do you think about their replacement, if any? Has anything progressed beyond various tech-demo projects? Is Prithvi-III still alive as a concept at least?

Also, what do you think about IN's future carriers? Your info about the Su-80 was interesting, if there's anything we have with regard to the IAC-2, it's time. Hopefully, enough time to validate the Su-80 as a carrier-capable aircraft.

But what about the carriers themselves? The EMALS-equipped IAC-2 surely wouldn't appear anytime before the 2035 period...so is IN warm to the idea of ordering a second Vikrant-class ship in the meantime? We shouldn't lose CSL's workforce expertise in building warships of this scale, and IN wanted a 3-carrier force anyway.

Thanks in advance!

Anonymous said...

can you bring out the whole story of Kunduz airlift? why did US agreed to airlift in an attempt to appease Musharraf? U.S. diplomat quote "Musharraf fooled us, the ISI may have running a much bigger operation and got out more people"
ur views

regards
Ron

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear Prasunji, I have a few queries regarding your reply to monkey.

1) Why is it absolutely necessary for india to align with the US for us to become a major power? Isn't it enough if we are "neutral" to US and don't get in their way? Considering the fact that our economy is growing quickly isn't it possible for us to become a big power by say 2035 - 2040 and still maintain our strategic autonomy?

2) How come you say China is not yet a major power but France Germany Japan and the UK are when China obviously dwarfs them all in economy and military?

3) What is the difference between leading power and major power?

4) What kind of power is India right now and how do you see us progressing to major power status in the future? How long before we attain that status provided no major disturbances in economy happens?

5) Do you think Washington will try to undermine us sometime in the future even if we don't do anything against them, just to weaken a potential competitor?

6) How would you say Washington's attitude to India has changed over the last 15 years? Do they consider us an ally or still a potential foe like in the cold war days?

7) Some sources claim that the air launched version of brahmos has 300kg warhead while the ground launched and ship launched versions have 200kg. How is that possible when the air launched version is 450kg lighter?

8) How would you compare the Kolkata class to type 45 of royal Navy and horizon class of France?

Thanks

RASAYAN said...

Hi Prasun,

An unfavourable view of an IN personal on COMCASA.
"http://www.delhidefencereview.com/2017/01/26/comcasa-should-india-sign/".
COMSEC equipment uses encryption and hence the encryption key should be used by all the users to retrieve the message. IF one of the end users do not have access to the key then how come they gain the access to the information?

Anonymous said...

UK, France and Japan are all tier 2/3 powers. They are all below USA, Russia, China, Germany and India. I would have thought China and Russia today are major powers, both Financially and Militarily. All the 3 major powers have number of things in common (china is still catching up on some), they have home grown full spectrum of war fighting systems. Their economies are able to function without external support. They can withstand all types of sanctions. In our case we are only building in more and more dependencies on foreign powers. None of our main war fighting systems can function without support from foreign nations. We simply try to buy leverage by buying, but actually its the supplier who gets the long term leverage. The French will have leverage for the next 40 years. How do we get any leverage. We promise to buy more.

Monkey

Daily Observer said...

There is only one super power and thats USA.
The other four members of the P5 + Germany & Japan are the major powers below USA.

India comes after that.

But looking at the way things are going by early 2040's, China will be a definite equal to the US and India will be a solid number 3 much ahead of any of todays major powers.

The other major powers will include Brazil , Indonesia , Mexico , United Korea and Turkey in addition to the six already present.

But China will never really be as influential as USA because the US has NATO and is a treaty allie of Korea,Australia,Japan,Canada.

So if the entire technologically advanced, economically developed,politically stable democratic western world is likely to be with USA, how can China Compete?

Unless Trump totally ruins USA or China has a Revolution and becomes a democratic society,there is no real chance for China to be as powerful as USA was after the Cold War ended.

SUVO said...

PRASUN DA,
(1)"Existing T-72M1s as heavy fire-support vehicles like the Russian BMP-T concept".You said repeatedly. But no positive news there.This concept is the best & serve 2 purpose: increasing commonality and reducing logistical footprints and cost.
Another is mobile 120 mm breech-loading mortar,which is essential.But there is also no positive news in this aspect.

(2)Dada sudhu chin noy amrao pari,"Making of Chenab Bridge".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1jQ6qLDir8

Anonymous said...

It is ridiculous to equate Germany and Japan to other nuclear armed major powers. These states are prosperous, but they are militarily dependent on the U.S for security. Their sovereignty is therefore, limited. A credible nuclear deterrent is a necassary (but not sufficient) condition to be a major power.

India needs a more credible nuclear deterrent in order to become a major power. It is worrying to see the slow pace at which the deterrent is being developed: there are reports of a K-4 test that was recently scheduled being postponed. This is not a good sign.

Satyaki

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: The Prithvi family of NLOS-BSMs were NEVER meant to be nuclear-armed. Instead, they were always classified as battlefield support weapons, i.e. to be used as conventional rocket artillery just like the Iskander-E NLOS-BSMs. That’s why the IA had insisted that the SS-150 Prithvi-1 have a minimum range of 40km. Now that BrahMos-1 & Smerch-M are in service, there’s just no need for any other NLOS-BSM like the Prithvi family of missiles. The IAC-2’s concept design has been frozen & detailed design will begin sometime in 2018. It will be a nuclear-powered CATOBAR design. A second Project 71-type STOBAR-equipped vessel, even if built by CSL, would not make any sense since the money will be better utilised if CSL were to build the LPHs.

Meanwhile, there’s total turmoil & bewilderment inside Pakistan over Hafiz Saeed’s 90-day house arrest. Everyone is now questioning why China is not rushing to Pakistan’s assistance now since almost everyone was fed this ‘mantra’ about the so-called China-Pakistan-Russia axis? All those shitheads calling for strategic distancing from the US are now in utter shock! Perhaps these shitheads didn’t realise the might of the US$ & that of the US Federal Reserve Board. For, the US Fed is totally within its power to prohibit its usage by any other country, for instance by prohibiting China from extending US$-denominated concessionary loans for all CPEC-related projects & also preventing Pakistan from paying China in US$ for all weapons imports from China (yes, many of these shitheads are not even aware of how such transactions are denominated & transacted, & how much China loves the US$).

What will come next is likely the imposition of strict controls on the supply of spares for all US-origin military hardware, meaning spares will be supplied in a quantum that’s directly proportional to the hardware’s usage. For instance, for the F-16s, spares will be supplied for compensating the logging of every flight-hour registered during flight-training & counter-terror LIC operations. This will now bring down the spares stocks of all US-origin military hardware down to only 10/15-day usage-levels.

And since India has already made it well-known that it is replenishing its war wastage reserves on a war-footing since last November, there’s enormous pressure on the PA, PN & PAF to conserve their spares holdings in case India ups the ante from this March. And most importantly, India has made iot crystal-clear to China that New Delhi will NEVER facilitate Chinese funding of CPEC at the cost of a a growing India-China trade deficit. As a trial balloon, the boycott of China-supplied Deepavali fireworks last year was meant to serve as a demonstrable warning to China, as were the series of approvals to several Taiwan-based consumer electronics industries to set up production facilities in India last year. So, all in all, China is now finding it an extremely cost-prohibitive proposition to continue supporting Pakistan. So, let us all now wait & see if at all Pakistan conducts a second test-firing of its Babur-2/3 or Ababeel in the time to come.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SANJAY SHARMA: 1) Can you show me a single country in the last century that was successfully neutral? Even Switzerland resorted to weapons imports from Europe & the US, & NEVER from any country from the Warsaw Pact. And in what way is the Indian economy growing quickly? Haven’t you see the FM’s statement yesterday? Don’t you know that the Indian taxpayers are by nature non-compliant & dishonest because the system does not favour honesty? Isn’t it a fact that on a per capita basis Indian labour is highly unproductive even when compared to the newly industrialised countries? 2) In what spheres does China dwarf all other industrial countries? FYI China’s annual spending on R & D is still far lesser than that of Japan. How many IPRs are generated annually by China in comparison to what comes out even from tiny Israel? China has so far achieved success only in mimmicking products of Western origin. It is far behind even India when it comes to innovation, & the bulk of its R & D funds are allocated to spheres like nuclear medicine, nano-technology & industrial robotics. That’s it. 3) A major power adheres to the status-quo, whereas a leading power is revisionist. 5) India emerging as a competitor to the US??? Are you kidding? Who is feeding you such lollypops? Do you know how many Indians go to US educational institutions every year? And what is India’s annual spending on the education sector? In case you don’t know, India is still having to spend money on building on community toilets & asking people to dig holes on the ground under MNREGA. 6) If the US considered India a foe during the Cold War era, then how come all the experimental test pilots of the IAF’s ASTE were trained in the US? How come all IN Admirals were admitted to the US Naval War College? How come the IA’s Generals ended up for courses conducted by the US Army’s War College in Fort Leavenworth? In contrast, why did not a single senior IA. IN & IAF officer ever go to similar institutions in the USSR in the same period? 7) They are wrong. 8) The Western warships all have a far higher degree of automation & make far greater use of composites-built structures.

To RASAYAN: It is both shocking & bizarre to read about from ill-informed & factually wrong narratives from an IN officer. Encryption key or crypto-key is NEVER used to retrieve any message. Instead, they’re used only for re-programming the operating software. It is the user-protocol that dictates how any message is to be retrieved. Secondly, none of the P-8Is uses COTS-level hardware. All mission avionics of the P-8I that is of Indian origin are MILSPEC-standard & use India-developed operating software that’s protected by India-developed encryption algorithms operating in what is known as NSM or national secure mode. It’s all highlighted here:

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.in/2012/07/p-8i-programme-status-briefing-slides.html

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lXmyQg0MM8k/UA_9xnu3CXI/AAAAAAAABiE/DXD0eLCoHcQ/s1600/P-8I+Briefing-3.jpg

Furthermore, this IN officer seems to be totally unaware about how the CENTRIX situational awareness system works. I had already explained what CENTRIX is in an earlier thread. As for high-accuracy Py-codes for GPS-based navigation, why on earth should India rely on the US Navstar GPS constellation now that India’s own IRNSS/NavIC constellation is operational? Therefore, looks like this IN officer needs to get himself educated on the latest goings-on in the naval technology arena.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RON: It is all explained here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_BS83BmTIQ

To MONKEY: In an era of globalization, to say that major powers or Tier-2/3 can function without external support or withstand all sanctions is akin to claiming that the tail is wagging the dog!

To DAILY OBSERVER: China will never be able to match either the US or even India in terms of developing knowledge-based societies. Out of its 1.5 billion population, China can afford to send hardly 3 million abroad for either business or education or tourism. Just take a simple indicator, i.e. the ability to apply for IPR patents per annum & you will realise that India is far behind even Israel or Lithuania. China is no better. India will definitely emerge as a leading purchasing country, but she still has to go a long way in ushering in knowledge-based societies, without which she will never be able to fully exploit the post-industrial digital revolution.

lachit said...

prasun there was a recent news report by jane where they claim Myanmar is going to buy jf17 from pakis , negotiations r going on , but u said many months ago that Myanmar will buy jf17/fc1 from china directly.

any confirmation on the above news.

buddha said...

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201702021050259876-kuwait-imposes-visa-ban-muslim/
Seems like Trump is not alone. ..

Daily Observer said...

The US is the Mecca of Greed. Its ability to attract ambitious greedy intelligent people from around the world is the reason for all those IPR patents you talk about. Going forward when india can provide enough funding to satisfy the greed and ambition of these people they will have no real incentive to leave.
I see india producing more good quality patents than USA by 2047. This process has already started. Have a look at this article

http://m.economictimes.com/news/science/will-india-be-among-the-top-3-nations-in-science-output-by-2030/articleshow/56429161.cms


Money makes the world go round.
By her 100th birthday Bharat mata will have more than enough to change the world order, Unless there is a Black swan event which screws India big time.

Anonymous said...

An interesting read this:

Seems like the Chinese haven't lost their trading skills. They know where the market is. LOL. Your thoughts on this article sir?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistans-middle-class-soars-as-stability-returns-1485945001


@lachit sir,

is it this janes articles?
http://www.janes.com/article/67387/myanmar-in-advanced-negotiations-to-licence-build-jf-17-fighter

Like I keep saying, all we do is buy and buy. Instead of ironing out the issues, problems with Tejas and being in the market to export. A side point I came across, which you may know: apparently IAF are still not happy to take on the Tejas? Is there any truth in this?

Monkey

Siddharth said...

Prasun da,

http://idrw.org/back-in-2015-one-of-russias-most-feared-submarines-killed-an-american-nuclear-sub/

Is there any reason to believe the above news.

Arpit Kanodia said...

Sir,
Your view on this
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201702021050259876-kuwait-imposes-visa-ban-muslim/

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/kuwait-bans-visa-for-5-muslim-majority-countries-including-pakistan/articleshow/56932649.cms

Barader mumalik banned Pakis.

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Thank you for your replies.

Why is it that Russia agreed for co-development and production of Brahmos in India but refused tot and production of Smerch in India.

Can DRDO produce a Pinaka III with 120 km range? Or recreate Prahaar as a 240 KM MBRL like american MLRS?

Also, China has now tested DF-5C with MIRVs. Was it a regular missile test or a testy one done to check how USA retaliate to this.

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear Prasunji, I have a few questions to follow on from your replies from my last query.

1) Its true that Switzerland did buy weapons from the west likewise is it possible for India to engage with the US economically but at the same time conserve our strategic autonomy and become a major power in the future? Or will we need to kow tow to the US like Japan and Great Britain has?

2) You had mentioned before that following the destruction of bagdad by the mongols there was no Renaissance in the Muslim world except for a partial one in Turkey by ataturk. Considering that, what do you make of president Erdogan? Is he doing great harm to turkey's Economic And progressive and secular fabric? Do you see Turkey becoming a semi Islamic theocracy in the future?

3) How would you rate the militaries of the Gulf region like Saudi and UAE? I know many people write them off but considering they have top of the tech, what is your opinion?

4) Do you see China ever in the future rivalling in the US in economic and military terms the way the soviets did or better?

5) How would you say US attitude to India has changed since the turn of the millennium?

6) Why didn't the soviets allow us to train in the train in their facilities considering we were so close to them in the cold war?

7) How many varunastras are carried aboard the Kolkata class?

8) How does equipping our ships with HWT instead of LWT affect their chances of sinking enemy submarines?

9) News reports the Russians have jacked up the price of the grigorovich frigates we were buying from them? Your opinion?

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/back-2015-one-russias-most-feared-submarines-killed-american-19262

is it even possible to think russian submarines are way ahead of US counterparts?who do u think has upper hand in building powerful submarines?

Regards
Ron

john said...

Could you please tell us what is the thrust of the Kaveri engine redesigned by Safran ?

Is AMCA engine is also part of the deal (110KN) ?

Varunn said...

In Punjab Modi talked about routing water of indus river to Punjab. Is he serious on doing something on IWT to hurt pakistan? Or just another stupid election speeche?

Ludwig said...

Sir what do think about this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ISRO/comments/5rgtwz/nasas_orbital_debris_quarterly_news_february_2017/
This has slipped under the radar of all news agencies in India.
Which makes me think is it wise to have only RISAT-2 as the sole X-Band SAR satellite for survivance in orbit, wouldn't it be better to have 2 such systems for redundancy in case of an issue such as what happened with RISAT-1?

Ram Bharadwaj said...

After Adm. Lanba castigated the ADA's NLCA,now it seems that Gen Rawat has blasted the HELINA.
What do you make out of it? Is the development trials of HELINA not shaping up as expected?

Anonymous said...

@Monkey you are not going to like this:

https://asianmilitaryreview.com/2017/02/rolling-thunder-jf-17/

"Meanwhile a contract for 50 JF-17 Block-3s is expected to be signed in the first half of this year, which will ensure production does not halt when all the JF-17 Block-2 aircraft are completed. The most advanced version of the Thunder will include new avionics, better electronic warfare systems, increased payload and more sophisticated weapons.

The Block-3 variant will be the ultimate JF-17 with an AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) X-band (8.5-10.68 gigahertz) radar replacing the older Nanjing Research Institute of Electronic Technologies’ (NRIET) KLJ-7 X-band fire control radar equipping legacy versions of the aircraft. Two possibilities exist for the JF-17 Block-3, including NRIET’s enhanced KLJ-7A while Leonardo is also believed to have approached the PAF with an undisclosed, proposed solution. There is a possibility, if such a requirement is there, that the legacy JF-17 Block-1/2 aircraft flown by the PAF could be upgraded to the Block-3 standard."

@Prasun, do you think Monkey has a point wrt LCA?

ron

Anup said...

Sir,

chinditsdefence.blogspot.in/2017/02/how-hal-devised-structural-changes-in.html

Is this true?

bhoutik said...

http://idrw.org/safran-looking-out-for-program-manager-for-kaveri-engine/

how will safran be involved with the kaveri?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To LACHIT & MONKEY: Jane’s HIS is light years behind the latest developments. Myanmar will procure FC-1s, & not PAC-built JF-17s, rest assured, especially at a time when the Pakistanis are expressing open & total solidarity with the Rohingyas.

To SIDDHARTH: That’s total hogwash, since in underseas warfare, no self-respecting navy ever discloses such information—be they about successes or failures.

To ARPIT KANODIA: That’s how the much hyped-about ‘Muslim Ummah’ is now unraveling, much to the horror of Pakistan. The Pakistanis, being used to politicians & military dictators who have never really delivered whatever they had promised, are now finding it hard to come terms with a businessman-turned-politician who is actually delivering on his pre-election promises without fail.

To JOHN: What re=design? No such work has even commenced to date. And how can it commence when the existing Kaveri hasn’t even been flight-tested (only the Kabini core was in Russia) & without such flight-tests, how will one ever come to know what needs to be redesigned?

To VARUNN: He never said that. All he said was that whatever water is due to India under IWT but which at the moment goes unutilised will be put to good use by India. Actually, the IWT was invalidated in 2010 itself when China quietly constructed a dam on the Indus River northeast of the town of Ngari in TAR.

To RAM BHARADWAJ: What’s to be made of them? They were only speaking the truth. Back in 2013 itself I had stated that the use of Nag as an air-launched ATGM was a no-brainer due to the use of rocket thrusters that would definitely damage the launch helicopter’s cockpit transparencies. Only by 2015 did the DRDO decide to do away with such thrusters. Why was the re=design undertaken so late?

To RON: Will anyone accept such unadulterated bullshit??? And that too at a time when China is inducting J-10Bs with Phazatron JSC-supplied Zhemchoug PESA-MMRs? Will the PLAAF & PLAN be stupid enough to opt for PESA-MMRs if the NRIET-developed AESA-MMR is already available as a mature product? Analyse that story properly & all such contradictions will become clear to anyone. Secondly, no European aerospace company will be able to supply avionics retrofit kits to China for systems integration unless & until the 1989 US/EU-ban on weapons technology supplies is lifted. So, let’s not get carried away by the fantasies of internet fanboys & instead focus on ground realities.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Water Security: Pakistan's most Critical Development Challenge

http://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/library/hiv_aids/development-advocate-pakistan--volume-3--issue-4.html

http://www.pk.undp.org/content/dam/pakistan/docs/DevelopmentPolicy/DAP%20Volume3,%20Issue4%20English.pdf?download

Pierre Zorin said...

USN did have public disclosure of carriers being "sunk" during military exercises.
http://www.cuttingedge.org/news_updates/nz1839.htm There are YouTube docos too search Collins class sub.

Anonymous said...

Not sure I would call Alan Warnes a fan boy. Apparently he has been following the FC-1/JF-17 since inception and is considered a good source.

Alexi

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ALEXI: Well, if you want to be bloody sure, then kindly contact him & ask him why is the PLAAF fitting PESA-MMRs imported from Russia on its J-10Bs if a homegrown AESA-MMR is already available. I can produce hundreds of factual errors made by Jane's IHS on various issues pertaining to Asia, & South & Southeast Asia in particular. Also, NEVER forget that it was I who had first revealed that Myanmar was the export launch customer for two Chinese products--KS-1A MR-SAMs & FC-1 L-MRCA. Everyone else without exception was at that same time claiming that its was Sri Lanka. And guess who was subsequently proven right!!!

This Warnes fella is just a 21st century UK-based fanboy of the PAF just as John Fricker, another Brit, used to be in the 1960s & 1970s.

To PIERRE ZORIN: Carriers being sunk or detected by surfaced Type 039 Song-class SSKs of the PLAN off Okinawa, yes. But never anything about its SSNs or SSBNs being tracked or targetted by its rivals, or for that matter USN SSNs or SSBNs successfully doing the same to their rivals. In the domain of undersea warfare, there prevails what was always the case post-WW-2: total, strict silence.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To PIERRE ZORIN: RAN's Collins-class SSK procurement is THE classic example of how to intentionally totally fuck-up a submarine procurement programme. It is all explained in these two excellent critical post-mortems of that programme:

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0102/02RP04

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0102/02RP03

I highly recommend it for analysis & dissection for anyone who is deeply interested in studying how exactly a procurement exercise takes place.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Brilliant presentation on Negotiating the China-India Boundary:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQikbBNtAaA

Kambar said...

1) Will IAC-1 and Vikramaditya use only the Mig-29K? Are 45 Mig-29K enough for these two carriers, given the poor serviceability reports? The availability rate is lower for the Mig-29K than the Su-30. Therefore, shouldn't the IN buy Tejas-mk2 navals to supplement the Mig-29K?

2) Since the MBDA SRAM is dead, what will replace the Python-1 for the IN?

3) Is Maareech hit-tile against the latest threats, such as maneuvering HWT? Some of these HWTs could confuse and spoof Maareech. Will Maareech be installed and retrofitted to all our major surface platforms? Can Mareech be added to the SSKs, like the Scorpene?

4) Don’t HWTs have a higher kill probability than ASCMs? And couldn’t deployable aquatic drones extend the detection range of subs to fire such an HWT? Was it then a Cold War Myth to say that SSNs could harm CBGs?

5) Will the HDW Type-209 subs get an AIP refit?

6) The ATAGs project will already send samples to the Army this June for testing, which means the ATAGs development process has matured rather rapidly for Indian standards. Does ATAGs have any similarities or inspiration from the Kalyani Bharat-52? How do ATAGs and the Bharat-52 compare?

7) What is the Elbit Systems autoloader that is featured on the ATAGs? What does it achieve compared to a 1980’s era autoloader?

8) Does the Army have adequate logistical support lines for all three western strike corps during a high intensity conflict? Is there enough armour on logistics vehicles to make them IED-resistant and survivable?

9) Do IAF/IA helicopters have wire-strike protection systems?

10) Are there nuclear warheads developed for cruise missiles, like BrahMos or Nirbhay? What is the warhead’s explosive power in kT? What is the kT destructive power of the Agni warhead?

11) How many T-90s are in service? How many are ordered and how many will the IA order? Do we really need any more T-90s when Arjuns can replace them?

12) How many mortar-carrying vehicles are in service? Are they all 81mm?

Kambar said...

12) How many mortar-carrying vehicles are in service? Are they all 81mm?

13) Why are there no supercomputers in India that work on simulating thermonuclear devices? After all, this is the only way to validate thermonuclear designs due to the immense political pressure against nuclear testing. We still have not tested an operational thermonuclear warhead (100kT+).

14) After SSBN-7, is there any goal to design and build future SSBNs indigenously? Will we have the necessary technical-industrial resources to construct them? Or is the plan to keep sourcing our strategic deterrent from a foreign country, like the UK does. The real problem with the latter is that Russia and India have completely different governments and institutional values, unlike the US-UK relationship.

15) Will the BMPT vehicle also be a great asset to use in mountainous regions, such as Sikkim and Ladakh? Will the NAMICA supplement the BMPT? It seems like the Russians decided to not go for the cost-effective BMPT upgrade, and will instead go for the Armata platform. It seems like the Russians would prefer to downsize to 300-500 Armata vehicles instead of upgrading the old Soviet armour.

16) Can the Chinese realistically invade and occupy Bhutan or Nepal? Would we be able to respond militarily?

17) Even with the BMPT procurement, the BMP-2M (have all our BMP-2 been upgraded to the M standard?) will still be vulnerable to 12.7 AP rounds and above. Can the BMP-2M be upgraded to at least STANAG 4569 Level 3? Most Western IFVs are level 4+, including upgraded ones.

18) Does DARE have any program management goals to finish the Super Su-30 upgrade? If so, when will they finish?

19) How competitive is Indian manufacturing labour from the private sector? Is there some social or institutional bottleneck to beefing up our manufacturing, or can we technically grow our industry base like the Chinese did, assuming land acquisition and red tape is simplified? During and before WW2, the USA did not have a very large arms industry and manufacturing was at all time lows due to the Great Depression. However, WW-2 proved that American industry could be quickly reactivated and retooled to produce arms. This is the sort of industrial robustness that we need to develop.

20) Will jawans receive ceramic inserts for their body armour, like conscripts from the Western world do?

21) Technically the Tejas mk1A can have an IRST drop tank hard-plumbed on the centerline pylon, like the IRST that is being installed on the F-18E/F.

22) What do you mean by the SSN program being a far way away? Isnt the IN fast-tracking this program, having already selected a supposedly frozen design? Shouldn’t long lead time contracts be inked already for the SSN?

23) Does the IA have any reason to switch to 7.51mm over 5.56mm? Has the Army done any modelling or simulation to prove that 7.51mm is operationally superior to 5.56mm to warrant a total replacement?

buddha said...

Really in detail analysis.....on boundary issue.....

buddha said...

Sir do you see requirements of light attack aircraft like A 29 super tunaco..or PC 21

Devopriyo said...

Hi Prasun,

What is "project Pralay" and "Anvesha"

https://twitter.com/delhidefence/status/827766572567687168

Gessler said...

Prasun ji, VMT for your previous answers! It seems the Rafale-M cannot fit on IAC-1's lifts anyway. Vikramaditya's either.

Coming to the point about IA infantry weapons...there are a lot of supposed procurement projects and tenders currently on...with a new tender being for procuring a 7.62x51mm NATO assault rifle. OFB is also believed to be competing.

Given the timeframe, I'm led to believe a modernized SLR/FN FAL might be the OFB's offer (with a new handguard, stock & P-rail integration options, the FAL still remains an excellent rifle).

Anyway, do you have any idea for who exactly this new 7.62x51 rifles are for? Regular infantry or the Rashtriya Rifles/Assam Rifles type counter-insurgency units? Are we going to replace their existing AKM/Vz.58 Kalashnikovs with these new Nato-caliber rifles or will a new 7.62x39 AK-based rifle will be procured separately in the future?

Also, any progress on the MCIWS/AAR project?

Thanks in advance!

rad said...

hi prasun
you mentioned that all the aste test pilots are trained ii US ? i beieve we have a good test pilots school .What is the need to send pilots to expensive courses abroad?

tell us the reason why ht e atomic clocks failed in the irnss?. it seems NPOL has made an atomic clock. t hen how come it is not aboard the irnss?

Vikram Guha said...

Prasun Da,

UAE is showing keen interest in developing defense relations with India.

Please explain is it possible for India to sell/export any military hardware to UAE or any of the Gulf states? For example export Scorpene submarines after taking permission from France.


Thank You

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada
The presentation on India China boundary settlement is really insightful.
May I request you to answer following questions
1. How many no of rudras are there in kitty of IA and IAF and are the performing as desired.
2. What is the status of LCH, when can we see the induction of the same in our armed forces

COAS has termed both of the platform not upto the mark in recent media interaction

Pratap said...

James Mattis had said US will 'incentivise' Pakistan. Now this www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-pakistan-pledge-to-take-engagement-to-higher-levels-report/story-B1vPMyX7rM1j6zB6kknV9H.html I think all Bush era polices will return. Pakis are expert in wriggling out of trouble with Washington. Hafiz Saeed too will walk away soon.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To VIKRAM GUHA: That possibility does not exist at the moment in case of submarines, but it does exist for weapons like Pinaka-2.

To RAD: ASTE's Air Force Test Pilots School (AFTPS) of the IAF does not specialise in churning out experimental test pilots (ETP). Instead, it focuses entirely on teaching pilots the science of evaluating various types of cockpit avionics architectures that are developed by DRDO or HAL for refrofits. ETP is totally different from TP.

To GESSLER: The 7.62 x 51 SLRs are all meant for the entire IA, but for immediate reqmts of the troops under HQ Northern Command, direct imports will be made because the reqmt is urgent. MCIWS is dead, period, since it is not workable under battlefield conditions.

To DEVOPRIYO: Pralay is the project name for development of a solid-fuelled propulsion system using higher energetic materials for the Prithvi-3 NLOS-BSM, for which there’s no operational reqmt at the moment. It is just a technology development effort. ANVESHA is the project name for development of an operating software.

To BUDDHA: No, not for India, because such turboprop aircraft are mostly used for ground straffing against insurgents hiding in jungles.

To KAMBAR: Yes, only MiG-29Ks. Serviceability levels improve with the passage of time. Single-engined LCA Mk.2 can’t compete against the twin-engined MiG-29K. Preference is always given to twin-engined platforms. 2) Python-1 or Barak-1? 3) It is a passive soft-kill decoy launched only from warships. For submarines there’s C-303 decoy from WASS. 4) Not necessarily. HWTs have far shorter ranges than ASCMs. During the Cold War, the threat to CBGs wasn’t SSNs, but SSGNs. 5) No. 6) Weapons development matures ONLY AFTER exhaustive firing trials are carried out under varied conditions. ATAGS therefore will become a mature weapons only by 2020 at best. Bharat-52 is totally different from ATAGS. 7) Autoloader is the same as that on Bofors FH-77B. Nothing to do with ELBIT Systems. 8) No two nuclear WMD-armed countries will ever wage all-out high-intensity wars against one another. They never have & will never do so. 9) See their photos for answers. 10) Already answered that a few times before. 11) Already answered that a few times before. 12) 182. All carry 81mm mortars. 13) Who says there aren’t such supercomputers in India? 14) No such plans exist for now. 15) Anwhere there’s manoeuvre warfare to be fought, FSCVs will be reqd to operate alongside MBTs. NAMICA carries just ATGMs & no cannon or HMG or AGL. 16) Why should China even contemplate such a step? 17) It can be done but that will degrade the mobility parameters. 18) DARE will not conduct the upgrades, HAL will. 19) Only impediment is the lack of long-term planning. Without this, long-term project financing can’t be done & orders are then placed in peacemeal manner, which drives up costs & makes the whole exercise cost-prohibitive. 20) Yes. 22) The stage hasn’t been reached as yet. There’s still some negotiating to be done. 23) That’s the worldwide trend now. Everyone else is switching over, including the PLA & PA.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To THE ENGDOC SOCIETY: 1) Less than 10 of each as of now. They can’t perform optimally unless they are fully weaponised as desired by their end-isers. 2) I’ve explained it numerous times before: a weaponised platform cannot be developed in a peacemeal manner, i.e. developing a flying platform for starters & then deciding to weaponise it. It wasn’t the IA’s COAS who said any such thing & it was malicious ‘paid news’ published by the dubious website. It was in fact mentioned by a former DRDO head 2 days ago at this event:

"The Evolving Trajectory of India’s Integrated Missile Programme" by Dr V K Saraswat on February 03, 2017 at 11.30am in Seminar Hall-1, IDSA.

The Indian Pugwash Society is organising a two-part talk series on India’s missile programme by Dr V. K. Saraswat. The first part of the talk titled, "The Evolving Trajectory of India’s Integrated Missile Programme" will be held om February 3. Jayant Prasad, Convener, Indian Pugwash Society will chair the session.

According to him, since the Rudra & LCH have been developed by HAL, the DRDO does not have access to the airframes for weapons integration work. It is a truly hilarious & outrageous observation for sure, but in such seminars, strangely no one bothers to ask the kind of pertinent questions that will bring out the truth. So let me tell you the truth: Dr Saraswat’s observations are truly outlandish & a total violation of the laws of physics because how come that MBDA’s PARS-3LR & RAFAEL’s Spike-MR were both test-fired from the Rudra 2 years ago when no Rudra was ever sent to Germany or Israel for systems integration? Why only for the HELINA does the DRDO want access to a Rudra? After all, ATGMs like the PARS-3LR, Spike & HELINA are all IIR-guided & therefore use passive fire-control sensors that don’t give out any RF emissions & therefore do not pose any risk of electromagnetic interference (EMI) that will degrade the performance of other on-board avionics. Therefore, all that is required is an avionics systems integration rig of the type available with HAL for devising a closed-loop fire-control system using a MIL-STD-1553B digibus architecture (common & identical to both the Rudra & LCH) that contains interfaces with the COMPASS FLIR turret, the TARGO HMDS & the ATGM. That’s all there is to be done. No need at all for any physical access to the airframe. And yet why has HELINA not be integrated with the Rudra & LCH? What Dr Saraswat did not reveal was that the DRDO had tried in vain to offer the Nag (with its 4 rear thrusters) that was totally rejected by the IA & IAF as being too dangerous for the helicopter cockpits & so the HELINA had to be an all-new design. Secondly, the COMPASS turret uses staring FPAs for target acquisition & tracking, whereas the Nag/HELINA use older-generation IR-CCD sensors. Developing an interface solution algorithm for reconciling the IIR imagery from 2 different sensors is a daunting task & was resolved only last year that enabled the Nag to be fire-controlled by the COMPASS turrets now also installed on the NAMICA. So the HELINA’s user-trials will be completed only by this August.

Gessler said...

Prasun ji...so you're saying that the MCIWS (now called Advanced Assault Rifle/AAR), is dead??

This weapon - https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/indian-mciws-01.jpg?w=600&h=272

...will not be procured?? So what are we going to replace the INSAS rifles with? Foreign guns?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: That's right. The baseline design of the new 7.62mm SLR is that of the GHAATAK from OFB Ishapore. So, RIP MCIWS.

Meanwhile, here's an interesting debate in Pakistan aired last night on India's force modernisation & Pakistan's countermeasures:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08uo3C-RCY4

To PRATAP: Incentivising means "Khudaa ke bandey ban jao, warna CPEC ke liye sabhi US$ loans hum bandh kar denge." As for taking engagement to higher levels, one got a taste of all that when Hafiz Saeed was detained for the 7th time & no one in Pakistan is able to explain the reasons for detention, except for muttering that this was done to safeguard Pakistan's national interests & as to what those national interests are, the official word is, "it is all too sensitive to be discussed."

Here, what this hilarious discussion in which the Pakistani Foreign Ministry Official finds it hard to explain it all:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxJKezZE2lQ

Srinivasa Nanduri said...

Hi Prasun,

Your comments that - "The baseline design of the new 7.62mm SLR is that of the GHAATAK from OFB Ishapore". Can this mean that IA will choose ACE Galil, which was already tested and passed all tests. Or Will it be OFB made version or will it be SCAR H from FN?

Regards,
Srinivasa Nanduri

Gessler said...

Damn it, Prasun ji! Why the hell OFB is not able to make a proper rifle? I hope we at least have a couple of foreign rifles in sight for purchase and subsequent licensed production.

About the new rifle...GHAATAK is a modernized AK right? So are these idiots at OFB trying to switch over a 7.62x39 Kalashnikov to a 7.62x51 NATO caliber action?...All the while data & rights to build a proper, tried-and-tested 7.62x51 NATO rifle (FN FAL/SLR) already exist in India?

Are they crazy??

Gessler said...

Also, sir ji, there is a meeting between NSA of Myanmar and Ajit Doval. Anything to say regarding that?

Sanjay Sharma said...

Dear Prasunji,

1) The latest brochure from IAI states that mf star radar has only 120km range for high flying aircraft. Isn't that too less for modern radars that all have range over 400km?
You once mentioned that the real range is secret but surely it must be more than at least 200-300km right?

2) SIPRI states that the total number of naval brahmos delivered thus far is 105. Considering around 25 brahmos have been test fired that leaves 80 remaining in naval inventory. Are the numbers right?

3) Why are not Indian navy ships employing more Kashtan ciws with their missiles like the talwar ? Don't they give better results than ak 630?

4) Are the SA-N-5 hand held sams equipping our Corvettes effective against subsonic ASCM like yj 82?

5) http://defense-update.com/20100920_yakhont_in_syria.html

According to the figures in this article, the p800 oniks is capable of supersonic sea skimming flight? What improvements must be made in the Brahmos to achieve the same instead of the high altitude steep dive attack pattern?

6) Will the nirbhay be eventually developed into a 1000KM long range ASCM?

7) What is the minimum range of brahmos?

8) If the Brahmos is targeted at a ship much less than its max range, will it then be capable of sea skimming flight due to greater fuel?

9) Parrikar claims that availability of su 30 has increased to 63%. Any truth in his assertions considering the pact for long term supply of spares from Indian entities is still only being negotiated?

10) Once the pact for spares is signed do you believe availability of su 30 can reach the dream figure of 75%?

11) How would you rate the directorate of naval design when it comes to designing surface combatants like kolkata? Is it at least beginning to approach the likes of dcns in designing surface combatants?

12) How many mig29k and helicopters can the vikramadaitya carry? Numbers always vary on the net?

13) Will the Vishal be ready for induction by 2018 as claimed?

14) How many aircrafts can Vishal embark?

15) Since the j15 is underpowered I think in a one on one CBG fight between the vikramadaitya escorted by kolkata, shivalik and klub equipped kilos may actually give a tough fight to a liaoning escorted by type52d, type 54a and type39a.
Do you agree sir? Can we beat them in such a HYPOTHETICAL fight?

16) How would you compare the shivalik with the f22p of Pakistan?

17) If Trump wants to block Chinese access to the islands in the south China sea (hypothetically) , does the USN have the power to pull it off? Considering the proximity of the islands to the Chinese mainland and advances in air launched ASCM that the Chinese have made.

18) Finally Prasunji, I've consolidated a few points you made in your previous posts and comments.
a) The much vaunted abilities of the DF 21 and DF 26 to knock out airbases don't exist and they are only armed with EMP warheads.

b) Chinese Air planes can't take off from their bases with full combat load.

c) They haven't been able to develop a laser designating pod which makes their arsenal of LGB practically useless against India.

d) India posseses the higher ground in many areas along the border.

e) Their tanks and artillery are years behind contemporary designs.

f) Their air defenses along TAR are quite sparse.

g) But they do have much better infrastructure.

Does this all mean Prasunji, that if a future high intensity, short duration border war were to occur between India and PRC, they won't be able to steamroll us the way they did in 1962? Will we actually be able to put up a good fight?

Thanks

Ludwig said...

Sir nanosat made by ISRO are being launched:
http://www.isac.gov.in/flagoff-nano.jsp
Is this testing of the system you mentioned before?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: you are getting confused between the GHAATAK & the TRICHY Assault Rifle. The latter is inspired by AK-47, while the former is an all-new design that benefits from all the experience gained from the INSAS programme. There's no need to be depressed. The GHAATAK will perform as advertised & will be an excellent assault rifle.

Gessler said...

But sirji...OFB has shown several charts of the GHAATAK and it obviously is a modernized AK. You have shown pics of the gun on this very blog -

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HW4jWzGo70w/VU_O1Mn2S2I/AAAAAAAAJTM/FGtwe-f5_zc/s1600/AMOGH%2B%26%2BGHAATAK%2BSLRs.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/unvy8Zg.jpg

The Trichy AR is ofcourse also based on the AK and uses the same 7.62x39 round. This one -

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mW_jL7FUJb4/VU_PJxGMx1I/AAAAAAAAJTs/_VS4qVnIPMs/s1600/Trichy%2BSLR-1.jpg

Satya said...

Prasun, read this article on UK's equipment blunders. Ajax ICV has to be dismantled first before it can be transported by A-400, Type-45 destroyers are described as "noisy as hell" www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4192894/Britain-vulnerable-attack-defence-blunders.html lol they have screwed up things big time. The end of Britain as a great power is now complete.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: None of the OFB's charts state that the GHAATAK is a modernised AK, nor has anyone from OFB or from Russia or from anywhere else ever stated that the GHAATAK has been inspired by or derived from the any member of the AK family of assault rifles. If there is any empiracl evidence to prove otherwise, then kindly bring it forward & share it. If no such evidence exists, then it can never be claimed or assumed or presumed that the GHAATAK is 'obviously an AK'. It's that simple.

Gessler said...

Can I assume if the gun shown in the pics I posted IS in fact the GHAATAK you are referring to? And if I haven't misunderstood or misread you, this GHAATAK is going to be the future service rifle of the Army? Replacing the INSAS?

Rushil Anand said...

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/02/exclusive-bae-hal-unveil-joint-advanced-hawk.html

Well as you said, it is here! What do you think of the Advanced Hawk as a CAS aircraft?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To GESSLER: I can't testify to the authenticity of the pix from other websites, but the one I had uploaded in my blog & which you weblinked as well, is the GHAATAK SLR's (its OFB poster is also visible in the same pic). It will be the future SLR of all 3 armed services of India (and not just within the IA), replacing the INSAS 5.56 SLR.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To RUSHIL ANAND: Possessing a 3-tonne payload is quite impressive for an aircraft of that size. Since it is optimised for CAS, it will carry Brimstone-type lightweight PGMs & not the larger Griffin 3-type LGBs that are more suitable for tactical interdiction missions. While BAE Systems for obvious reasons wants to promote the AIM-132 ASRAAM, HAL will be well-advised to showcase it armed with IAF-specific weapons like the Python-5 WVRAAM integrated with the HALBIT Targo HMDS.

Sanjay Sharma said...

Sorry Prasunji, I meant ins vikrant in my 13th & 14th queries in my previous post. Not Vishal.

Pierre Zorin said...

After you have answered Sanjay Sharma and Kambar after this lot of questions Prasun I have no hesitation in conferring a Doctorate to you because obviously you have passed one exam after another and have run out of exams...mind out the set of questions would still be there with marks ranging from 5 to 25 and you can still score 100/100 but surely if you passed those exams you ought to get some recognition :) Same goes for your "tut tut" approach to Gessler - no need to get depressed - just like offering your shoulder to cry on... LoL

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To ARPIT KANODIA: Looks like the Mirwaiz has undergone a reformation! Listen to him talking about the questionable human rights situation inside PoK from 0.03.20 till 0.05.54 here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_ICjVOEIdU

No wonder his interview in that programme was abruptly cut short.

To SANJAY SHARMA: 1) Range envelopes depend on the radar’s transmitting power, which can be varied by the end-user. 2) Does SIPRI possess any delivery status invoice issued by BrahMos Aerospace to prove its figures? 3) Why then has Russia itself junked the Kashtan? 4) Why should any corvette expect any attack from an ASCM when the corvette is not meant for use in deep waters? 5) Is Defence Update the official news-releasing entity of the OEM for Yakhont? If not, then why are you quoting it? Tomorrow if I say to you that I have constructed an escalator from Earth to the Moon then whill you take my statement to any escalator manufacturer & ask for a commercial quote for manufacturing a similar escalator? 6) What is eventually? Haven’t you read the Nirbhay’s brochure that I had uploaded earlier? 7) 50km. 8) What makes you assume that greater fuel load will result in sea-skimming? Do the laws of physics permit it? 9) The figure is correct. Indian entity means HAL which in any case is acquiring the spares from Russia. 10) Figures depend on the ability to ensure constant supply of spares & this depends on how much the IAF wants to spend on such procurements. It is neither HAL’s or Russia’s fault. 11) How can that be the case when DCNS-designed warships are lighter & feature more automation? 12) 12 & 8. 13) IAC-2 will be available only by 2021. 14) Same as INS Vikramaditya. 15) Liaoning is a training vessel as per the PLAN. It will therefore never take part in any war. 16) F-22P FFG is meant only for coastal patrolling. It is quite light & its lack of seaworthiness in the high seas is its main weakness. 17) The USN has more than enough T-LAMs & JSOWs to take out all the principal shore-based PLAN & PLAAF facilities. 18) They never steamrolled even in 1962. To know the truth you will have to find out exactly how many soldiers were mobilized by the PLA in 1962, which was only 1 Infamtry Division of the PLA in the east (NEFA) & only 4 infantry battalions in the west (Ladakh).

To PIERRE ZORIN: LoLz! VMT. You too are free to try your luck in explaining to Sanjay Sharma why exactly it is impossible for any man-made supersonic flying body to either go sea-skimming or make abrupt zig-zag manoeuvres (the easiest answer being such missiles are not unearthly flying discs/UFOs). For, he seems to be totally unwilling to ask these questions to his physics teacher & therefore has not been able to reach a convincing conclusion WRT reconciling the laws of aerodynamics with the natural gravitational forces (the G factor).

Sanjay Sharma said...

Many thanks for your replies Prasunji. Sorry for the large number of queries. I Really admire your willingness to answer them.
BTW,I hated physics. Lol

rad said...

hi prasun
please ex[lain the difference between starring focal plane array and iir ccd .



to sanjay sharma

I will try to answer your question of the Brahmos being not able to make a zig zag manouver near the target.

there is a force called G forces that act upon any flying body in flight .In straight and level flight there is no g forces unless there is acceleration in forward movement.The moment a missiles banks or tries to maneuver there will be tremendous forces acting upon an air frame .G forces are a function of speed , angle of attack and bank angle .if any of them increase, the g forces increase rapidly. Ex a fighter banking at 60 degrees will experience g forces about 2 g, when it is banked to 90 deg the g is about 9 g enough to make most pilots unconscious.now this is at speeds around 700kmh. Missiles are made to with stand certain g in the design, if it is exceeded it will break up since the speed is so high . The brahmos flies at 3000kmh . imagine the forces acting on it . FYI i believe the python 5 missiles can maneuver at a crazy 50g + this is because it has to catch a fighter doing 7 g . this is because it is flying at nearly 3000 kmh and it is designed for that loads.we still dont have materials that can make the brahmos stronger having the same weight. if we use heavier construction we fall into a classic aerodynamic trap ie trying to get a bigger engine to make up for the increased weight like the lca.
i hope i am correct ,prasun can correct me if there are mistakes!

Shantanu kumar said...

Prasun, will Advanced hawk sport a radar and Maws?

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/In-ISRO%E2%80%99s-launch-of-104-satellites-next-week-88-will-be-from-U.S./article17198991.ece?homepage=true

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SHANTANU KUMAR: MAWS can be fitted, but not radar on the existing tandem-seat version of the Combat Hawk. If a single-seat version is developed, then the radar installation becomes possible.

Sanjay Sharma said...

Thanks rad.

Vikram Guha said...

Thanks Prasun Da.

1. In India are submarines designed only in Mumbai & Vizag or are there any other location that is coming up?

2. What are the various military platforms that India can export to countries in the Gulf like UAE and Saudi Arabia?

Thank You

VIKRAM

The Engdoc Society said...

Dada
Ur view on adequacy of defence budget
Every other journalist is crying out loudly that this falls way short of the required funding specially the CAPEX part and this will put mordenization of armed forces in jeopardy.

Moreover Dada is it possible that India Might be concealing actual figures and defence spending is way above what is presented in the budget

On a lighter side see the below message of the critical response which Pakistan may offer on Trump Visa ban

डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प की 7 मुस्लिम देशों पर वीसा प्रतिबन्ध पर
पाकिस्तान ने प्रतिक्रिया दी......


'हम कौनसा वीज़ा लेकर किसी देश में घुसते है!'😂😂

Arpit Kanodia said...

@Sanjay Sharma: If you want to know how physics breakdown in Universe, then watch these testimonies.

Edgar Mitchell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOHv1twCOqQ

Japanese Incident, Chief of FAA testimony: www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4WTid3O0VE

Testimony of US Navy's Electronic Tech. : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4qQv7RasRw

Testimony of Astronaut Gordon Cooper: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsEd_b1C8DY

US Army Brigadier on Project Blue Book: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WZyDglNi5Y

Project Grudge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6dw7kP0sBY

UK's MoD research on UAP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAY1Erm-el8

Incident that occurred before Rendlesham Forest incident: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-8XJvHRuzY

Testimony of an Officer who was in Recovery Team: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GnGGCaC6P4

Famous Col. Corso: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAfTY7NuceQ&

Son of Col. Corso: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYhRu2_nJ6c

Ex Employee of Lockheed Martin's Skunk Work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLyc4xp75Zk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMufhidzxeU



Devopriyo said...

What do you think of this Article. Seems to be airing your views

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2017/02/f-16-for-india-air-forcereally.html

vishakh said...

Hello,

Tejas MK1A may choose Radar , EW pod from ISRAEL or SWEDEN etc but as per your thread Unified Computer with MAWS are also available from these vendors . Does TEJAS MK1A --> RADAR + EW POD + RWR + MAWS are being looked into ???

Anonymous said...

If india will get the offer for F 35 with ToT , then which will be the best in indian context, F 35 or rafale.

Anil

Anonymous said...

http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2017/feb/06/set-back-for-make-in-india-initiative-after-iaf-says-no-to-advanced-hawk-trainer-jets-1567637.html


what r the real reasons behind this scenario?

Regards
Ron

financeblogger said...

As stated by you, surgical strikes may be in the offing in March 2017

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/defence/cant-rule-out-more-surgical-strikes-rajnath-singh/articleshow/56959550.cms

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/urgent-arms-deals-of-rs-20000-crore-inked-to-keep-forces-ready/articleshow/56992170.cms

My question is when in March 2017 (beginning, mid, late March) will there be a probability of surgical strikes?

Anonymous said...

Greetings Mr Prasun. If I may draw your attention to a few things.

1) You mentioned in your article date August 2013 that the vikramaditya was intended to deploy 20 mig29s and 8 choppers. But you mentioned above that it capable of only 12 + 8. Has the IN encountered any problem with the ship or the planes that have limited the number?

2) Although the chicoms say the liaoning is not "intended" for combat (it was initially "intended" to be a floating museum, but then their true intentions came out), what is the maximum number of j15 and choppers she can deploy?

3) You also mentioned in the same article that the vikramaditya is designed to deploy the Barak 8 missile. But it seems IN has deployed only the Barak 1 on it that has been recycled from godavari. Is this just a stop gap solution? How many sams can she deploy?

4) You mentioned in the same article that India intends to manufacture 200 Barak 8 every year. Seems far fetched considering our capabilities. Any change in these numbers? Roughly how many have so far been delivered?

5) How long before all the 3 kolkata destroyers and the vikramaditya are all equipped with the Barak 8?

6) You stated that the range of the mf star can be varied by the end user. Based on your information what is the estimated max range for the mf star for a fighter sized target flying at high altitude?

7) Looks like IAF assets were "attacking" IN ships in tropex '17. Do you think the IN is practising emplacing a naval blockade of the pakis, and the IAF is playing the role paki AF? Repeating the heroics of '71?

Deepak Misra

SANJEEV KUMAR said...

IMRH looks like a Mi17 derivative by the image released by HAL.

buddha said...

Sir with upgradation of present stock of trainer hawk to close in support combat aircraft and single seat combat version more than 5 squadron newwith tejas mk1 and mk1a optimised for close in air support .....leaving air dominance and air supremacy to Su30mki and rafale..and in future tejas mk2..
....is this the future Indian air force ..or do you see differently

SR said...

Hello Prasunda,
Can you please let us know --> Can Rafale-M operate from IAC1 without major modifications? I believe Rafale designated for India have higher thrust engines, so can take decent payload for STOBAR operations. Thanks in Advance...

Vijay said...

Dear Sir

Could you please tell us about the FUTURE of BENGAL
in the face of Growing Islamic Extremism AND
the Unwillingness of the State Government to tackle it

How do you see things unfolding in near future

Anonymous said...

@Anil
February 6, 2017 at 6:26 PM

If you are reading this blog and still able to ask this questions on ToT, OMG...

Rajesh said...

Procurement of GHAATAK SLR is perhaps one of the best decisions taken so far in many years by our armed forces. BTW why the useful and force multiplyer Hawker CAS is getting outright rejected. - Rajesh Mishra

Anonymous said...

The Combat Hawk is a great idea to fill the sqdn numbers. However if one had a choice of a combat hawk or Tejas. the way to answer it is if faced with a JF-17/F-16, which aircraft would you want to be in? (yes i know there might be some su-30 to help out or it might not). How capable are these two? which is better?

Monkey

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Asian Studies Centre, The Heritage Foundation; Georgetown University; National Defence University, New America; Hudson Institute; Brookings Institution; Centre for Strategic and International Studies and the Middle East Institute jointly compiled this report on financially isolating Pakistan:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/files/publications/20170203HaqqaniCurtisANewUSApproachtoPakistanEnforcingAidConditionswithoutCuttingTies.pdf

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To DEEPAK MISRA: 1) That’s the complement that it is now carrying. The availability will go up once all 45 MiG-29K/KUB have been delivered. 2) 24 J-15s & 12 Z-18F/W helicopters. But the J-15 is underpowered & cannot take off with its full loads of weapons plus its full fuel load. This means a J-15 can carry either 2 C-802A ASCMs & 2 PL-8 AAMs, or just two PL-12 & 2 PL-8 AAMs along with full fuel load. That will give the J-15 a combat radius of only 120km when flying CAPs above a carrier battle group. 3) Barak-8s will be on-board once they become available in sufficient quantities. 4) Only 50 have been delivered to date. 5) At least another 2.5 years. 6) More than 200nm. 7) No one is practicing any blocade-type scenarios since there’s no prospect at all of an all-out war between India & Pakistan. In limited wars, the objectives & missions are of a limited nature & are designed to destrfoy only military targets & not civilian infrastructure. Thus, in future, if hostilities break out, India will never attack infrastructure like power plants, fuel tank farms, dams, etc etc to prove the point that the conflict is with Pakistan’s armed forces only & not with the civilian citizens of Pakistan. This is exactly how the US & UK had fought in Iraq in 2003, as opposed to the total war in 1991.

To FINANCEBLOGGER: Strictly speaking, a surgical strike is something that removes the threat permanently, like the killing of OBL in May 2011. What the IA did on September 29 last year wasn’t a surgical strike at all, but just a cross-LoC raid. After the snows melt, more such raids can be conducted if necessary, but the probability of a swift conventional land campaign is far more likely as it will have a far more deterring effect on Pakistan. This may include either the re-capture of & permanently holding on to the Haji Pir Pass, or the Chicken’s Neck area below Jammu spanning 161 sq km. Both the PA & PAF will find it impossible to militarily checkmate India in such a scenario because the PA is heavily spread out along the Durand Line & is also running very low on its war wastage reserves. Furthermore, China is unlikely to militarily intervene in Pakistan’s favour at a time when it is seriously seedking a free trade agreement with India.

I can now reveal that Pakistan had already drawn up this sober assessment along with China by mid-December itself & on December 27, 2016 in Islamabad the Pakistani NSA Lt Gen (Ret’d) Nasir Janjua convened an off-the-record briefing for 25 select journalists in which he had admitted that: 1) the terrorists involved in the Uri & Pathankot attacks had hailed from Pakistan. 2) the Govt of Pakistan had been under severe pressure from the US & China to comprehensively crack down against both the JeM & LeT/JuD. 3) A 4-pronged crackdown was being planned against these outfits. 4) Once the crackdown begins, the local Pakistani press should go all-out to propagate that this crackdown is in the national interests of Pakistan & is not due to Indian/US demands.

To VIKRAM GUHA: 1) The SSBN was designed at an IN-owned & L & T-operated facility in Gurgaon. 2) Not too many at the moment, since their favoured supplier countries are the US, France, UK & China.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To MONKEY, RAJESH MISHRA, BUDDHA, VISHAKH & RON: The reasons why the IAF is against a dedicated CAS/BAI aircraft procurement are because: 1) It will divert attention/focus away from the urgency to procure additional Rafale MMRCAs. 2) The Combat Hawk as a tandem-seater minus any MMR will be a sub-optimal option. To be noted is the fact that the Tejas Mk.1A, when fitted with an AAR probe, will also not be used for CAS/BAI, but more for tactical interdiction in order to fill the void made by decommissioning of the MiG-23BN/MiG-27M fleets. If Rafales in sufficient numbers (at least 80) are procured without any further delay for being used as deep interdictors, then the bulk of the Jaguar IS/DARIN-3 can take over the tactical interdiction role & the Tejas Mk.1A can undertake CAS/BAI missions. Only then can one do away with the Combat Hawk option. At a time when the MoD surrenders away Rs.7,000 crore as unspent amount, one needs to ask why all this song-and-dance about the Rafale being so expensive to procure when it is clear to everyone now that Rafales ordered in successive tranches once every 2 years will brng down the per-unit acquisition costs. Nor does the issue of Su-30MKIs ‘might be/might not be available’ arise because even during the 1971 war, composite strike packages inclusive of escorting interceptors has been the norm & not the exception.

To SR: The question of Rafale or any other aircraft-type operating from IAC-1 does not even arise because the entire internal hangar, servicing bays, elevators, armament storage bays etc etc have all been configured exclusively for supporting only the MiG-29K, just as is the case with INS Vikramaditya.

To SANJEEV KUMAR: That’s because just like the Mi-17V-5, the IMRH too will be powered by VK-2500 engines. It remains to be seen if the IMRH will have fly-by-wire or fly-by-light flight control systems, & BERP-type main rotor blades.

Abhay Jain said...

Prasun Sir,

1) Do you think china will let us enter NSG? If yes, then what's our bargaining chips? FTA?

2) You say that china forced pakistan to crackdown on JUD and JEM then how come they always defend Masood Azhar in UN?

3) Do you really think pakistan will crackdown on these Jihadi outfits as I was watching a lot of pak news shows this week. What I get is that their ex military personnel don't look content with the notion of closing down jihadi factories without gaining anything in return? Do we have to compromise something in return?

4) You are heading to AI-17?

5)As HAL is showing concept of IMRH this AI-17.Do you think HAL has come of age when in comes to rotary wing design?

6) You said they will use VK-2500. Don't we have any western/french alternative to that?

7) I read somewhere that drdo got 1kw fiber laser tech in offsets and they are working on 10kw. Where did we get this tech from and what's the timeframe they have in mind to develop 10kw?

8) Is drdo working on any kind of electromagnetic rail gun technology or they intend to acquire it against the offsets as well?

looking after your replies and your AI-17 coverage

regards

Abhay Jain

Pratap said...

Prasun, will HAL collaborate with foreign partner like Kamov or Mil or Eurocopter to develop the IMRH? Joint collaboration for civil and military version with European or Russian manufacturer will ensure a good quality machine delivered on time. Dont think HAL can develop it by its own.

Pierre Zorin said...

Why is it in India the news footages of weaponry are usually accompanied by extreme poetic and ridiculously exaggerated capabilities intro? It is as if that particular weapon is ONLY available in India and for Indians! An example - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKJ4TSfLe6I - but more when you select any youtube videos on any thing from T-72 to P8I - Akash to Bofors. Becomes embarrassing really. Almost like the last runner in a marathon claiming the gold medal.
What's wrong in being factual simply to say - this is a potent weapon and plug the gap for such and such or finally India can etc.
No instead you get a 10 minute intro - "World beware" "India's enemies cower behind your desks" "Enemy slayer - super weapon is now in India's hands"- "China and Pakistan start shivering " - "Equal to any major power in the world" "Don't mess with India this weapon will pulverise the entire world" etc etc naturally I am using examples which you can search yourself but why make it hilarious to the rest of the world?

vishakh said...

Hello,

1) USA is moving to Coaxial Rotor System for NXT GEN Heli Platform . Is India not looking for that and why not??

SK said...

Prasun,

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2017-02-07/ilyushin-unveils-il-38-asw-upgrade-russian-navy

1) Will IN upgrade its IL-38's to the above mentioned standard or will they use the Aircrafts in their current configuration until retirement as they already have more P-8I's on order.

2) In the pic - any idea on what the fuselage mount is (Behind the cockpit) ??

financeblogger said...

Following video discusses about disappearance of bloggers in Pakistan, as also about Salman Taseer and also the strangle hold of security agencies along with the polity

Nazam beginning from 00:20:52 to 00:23:05 is a must listen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfoZ5p7yR3U

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To SK: 1) The IN already operates such upgraded IL-38SDs. It is clearly mentioned in that report. The Nouvella of the Russian navy is the same as the Sea Dragon. 2) It's the ESM sensor.

Meanwhile, ELBIT Systems was yesterday awarded a $110 million contract from the IAF for the upgrade of the 40 Mi-171 helicopters that were acquired since the year 2000. The project will be performed over a five-year period. And do not confuse the Mi-171 with the Mi-17V-5. Here's a video of the upgrade package:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMQp6o0Hm7o&index=8&list=PLcyb09ZWD41BUCWNvxWVO1lU8MjU-evNr

Daily Observer said...

Prasun, can't GOI make a rule that if a part of the defense capex budget is left unspent in one financial year the same is forwarded to the next year along with the budget for that year instead of returning it to the finance ministry?
The MOD has returned ₹ 35k crore over the past 5 years !
Also, wouldn't it be better to fix the defence capital acquisition budget for a 5 year period rather than on a yearly basis.
Every new government can set it in their first budget itself.
This would help plan the military modernization better.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

To THE DAILY OBSERVER: The very same non-lapsable defence modernization fund was created in February 2004 by the NDA-1 govt, but the first thing the UPA-1 did after coming to power in May 2004 was to scrap this plan. And the guy who helped scrap it with great glee is today the President of India. And this very chap, AFTER signing the India-US defence partnership agreement in 2005 in the Pentagon, on being asked about it AFTER coming back to India, had said at Palam Airport he did not have time to study the agreement & therefore could not comment about it!

To VISHAKH & PRATAP: Forget such revolutionary innovations taking place in India. Russia was the first to embrace co-axial rotors for the Ka-92 in the late 1990s & the US is now following suit. The IMRH concept shown by HAL is a faily orthodox design as of now & seems to be a mix of S-92 & AW-101 airframe design concepts.

To ABHAY JAIN: 1) It is not for China to enable or prevent India from entering the NSG for as long as all other existing members of NSG are agreeable to India’s entry. 2) Because China wanted to be seen as acting independently, instead of acceding to India’s request. It’s a matter of saving faced. 3) There cannot be any compromise since the various UNSC resolutions won’t allow any concessions to be made. The dismantling of the terror infrastructure in Pakistan has to be unconditional. 4) Am already in Bengaluru. 5) Not yet. Because the LCH & LUH have yet to emerge as mature designs. They will eventually, but the delays are far too long. 6) Western alternatives exist, but HAL wants to reduce life-cycle costs by using the VK-2500, since all the Mi-17V-5s also use VK-2500s. 7) It came from Russia & work on developing a prototype laser-based anti-UAV defence system is well underway. 8) Not at the moment. These are far too futuristic.

To PIERRE ZORIN: That’s how most vernacular TV channels in India project their stories. The same is the case with Pakistan’s Urdu-language channels & China’s Mandarin-language channels.

Prasun K. Sengupta said...

Pakistan Navy has acquired the Griffon 8100TD hovercraft for its Marines for patrolling Sir Creek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TceIHtoi5yU

The Indian Coast Guard has a fleet of eighteen 8000TD hovercraft to patrol the Indian coastline.

Pierre Zorin said...

Where is Pakistan getting funds from to keep buying weaponry? Chinese uncle or some other sugar daddy?

Pierre Zorin said...

Australia orderd undisclosed number of Schiebel systems http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2017-02-06/royal-australian-navy-orders-unmanned-schiebel-camcopter

Pierre Zorin said...

Keep forgetting to ask: if Pakistan keeps harping on Kashmir, why doesn't India raise the issue of Punjab and Sindh provinces? Indian national anthem mentions the two states as being part of India. In fact Punjab had Lahore as its capital prior to partition and shouldn't be divided. Also do you reckon that the Pak Sikh in the army Amarjeet Singh "issues warning to India" as a publicity stunt under duress? The number of Sikhs massacred by Pakistanis after independence ought to remind the Sikhs that Pakistan is no friend of the Sikhs. Not sure why some of their outfits especially in Canada is turning towards Pakistan! When all the Sikh gurus were hindus I am not sure where this pro Pak mentality comes from? If they think they are not Indians I remember a rude joke my school friends used to say - a bearded man fathered a child and soon after birth rejected his paternity on the grounds of the baby not having a beard; to put things right the doctor called him up and said if that is his only concern then lifting his wife's gown said the beard was 'Caught down there" at the time of the birth!

Pierre Zorin said...

A superficial reading of this anglicised Hindi : CHOD AYE HUM WOH GALIYAN might be translated I fu**ed those expletives or swearing unless carefully re-read. Do you think this could explain the "desi" bandalbaazes approach to reporting sensational news?

scared_citizen said...

HI Prasun,
Do you think Britain is becoming a Sharia country? Already some parts of UK have Sharia state. It as it own police. NOrmal UK police has no rights on these Sharia imposed places. Recently there has been a lot of procession by Muslims in UK. Somebody said 5 years back London is becoming Londonistan. Already there is an ex-Pak person as London mayor. Even school kids take a march to impose Sharia. I have a feeling that Europe is heading for a civil war. I wonder what the left liberals say in India, who bleed for Europe, but blind of Islamic terrorism in India.
One can see more of Muslims violence in this twitter account.
https://twitter.com/JPY_Kurdish

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